Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 212245Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts, now also Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading NW), and Kharkiv Oblast. Confirmed civilian casualties in Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (9 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Sloviansk (4), and Kherson (7 injured). Total confirmed fatalities are 13, with multiple injuries. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Confirmed continued AD engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district and "Lvivskyi Kvartal" residential complex. Damage includes destroyed windows, structural damage, and ongoing fires. A commercial building (McDonald's/supermarket) and the entrance to Lukyanivska metro station also sustained damage. One confirmed fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters and emergency services are actively engaged. Confirmed kindergarten fire. Visuals confirm extensive damage to kiosks and commercial facades on Kyiv streets. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. OBA reports consequences in two districts of Kyiv Oblast. PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat reports over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat's report of "over fifteen direct hits" in Kyiv, further confirming widespread damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms smoke and damage within Lukyanivska metro station after impact. UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, course Kyiv Oblast. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Chernihiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Kyiv has increased to nine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store near Lukyanivska metro station after the RF attack. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night. This is a critical new development. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg. Операция Z reports a drone hit a residential house roof near Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group from Tu-95MS aircraft was detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight, with visual evidence of craters and damaged buildings. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes by 11th Guards Army VVS and PVO (East Grouping) on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi, supporting 36th Army advance, claiming personnel and equipment losses in their area of responsibility. A new group of RF UAVs is reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor, Oleg Sinegubov, confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. DNR People's Militia channel provides video of claimed destruction of a UAF communication antenna and a "Baba Yaga" heavy drone. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from the 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment (Tsentr Group of Forces) giving details about the claimed liberation of Popov Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic, including aerial views with smoke plumes. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple units of enemy equipment by the "Kaira" squad of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, showing a strike on a pickup truck. STERNENKO shares 18+ video footage of FPV drone strikes, claiming destruction of a quad bike with occupant, and a motorcycle and rider in Luhansk, and a car, likely showcasing RF losses. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Colonelcassad report on a claimed new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video claiming activity in Chasiv Yar direction, showing military vehicles in a wooded, snowy area. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in vicinity of Belaya Gora in Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons. He states capture of Belaya Gora is significant for logistics and communications to Kostiantynivka. Colonelcassad shares map showing changes over past 24 hours, indicating continued positional changes on the front line. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claims Ukrainian National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators destroyed nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports a tractor driver was blown up by a mine in a field in Balakliia community. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports at least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv city, were affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO video shows a drone strike on 7 Russian personnel, resulting in an explosion and fire, likely inflicting casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ video claims SSO (Special Operations Forces) raided and eliminated a group of Russians attempting to set up a new position. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," resulting in an explosion and smoke plume. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Shandryholove, Torske and towards Serebryanka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Sieversk direction near Vyyimka, Verkhnokamyanske, Fedorivka and Hryhorivka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Predtechyne and Bila Hora. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Rusyn Yar, Toretsk and towards Katerynivka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Poltavka, Udachne, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Volodymyrivka, Novotoretske, Dachne, Novopavlivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka and towards Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Filiya. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Yalta, Myrne, Tolstoy, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Zelene Pole, Temyrivka, Piddubne and Novopil. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Huliaipole direction near Malynivka. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle, resulting in explosion and secondary detonations, confirming effective UAF drone operations against RF logistics in this sector. Air Force reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial threat in the region. Олег Синєгубов reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled by occupiers. STERNENKO video claims a Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment is holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized ground engagements. Два майора video shows a soldier conducting casualty evacuation in a wooded area in the Sumy direction, implying active engagement and personnel losses/injuries. Воин DV video shows aerial footage of a military vehicle, possibly a Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or artillery piece, firing. The video transitions to show the impact of the projectiles in a wooded area, causing explosions and smoke. The video also shows a ground-level view of an RF helicopter, likely a Ka-52 "Alligator," firing unguided rockets in a "vertical" or "pop-up" attack profile. MoD Russia video shows an attack UAV engaging AFU troops, confirming RF tactical drone use for kinetic effects. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Сквозь огонь врага: наша бронегруппа штурмует кирпичный завод в Малой Токмачке, наступая на Запорожском фронте. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] showing military vehicles advancing, one exploding near a vehicle, in open, grassy terrain, with background smoke plumes, suggesting active engagement. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] Caption: ‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️ Наши ДРГ уже в Покровске! - кадры одной из засад на машину ВСУ (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle moving along a rural road, with impacts near vehicle, damage to rear window, and blood present, indicating a direct engagement or ambush). DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video shows GUR ground robots in combat, claiming liquidation of hundreds of occupiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора [Video message] Caption: Сообщают, что на кадрах - Покровск (Красноармейск, временно под контролем ВСУ). Снимают ВСУшники. По машине отрыла огонь наша ДРГ, утверждает противник. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Армия России завершает разгром врага в Полтавке, прорываясь к Мирнограду! (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Воин DV [Video message] Caption: Очередное смачное ФАБирование по позициям ВСУ южнее Камышевахи. 11 гвардейская армия ВВС и ПВО продолжает оказывать непосредственную поддержку наступающим подразделениям 5 армии группировки войск "Восток". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) confirmed flying towards Myrhorod district in Poltava Oblast, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group of missiles from Cherkasy Oblast was confirmed to have diverted from Kropyvnytskyi and headed towards Zvenyhorodka, Kaniv, and Uman districts of Cherkasy Oblast, then further into Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemryriv, Trostyanets), with a general westward course. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled" (Олександр Вілкул). Visuals from "Оперативний ЗСУ" show aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming damage. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). Air Force reports UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports one fatality in Vinnytsia from a 16 July strike, indicating delayed casualty reporting. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Olexander Vilkul, head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, provides photos of water supply network modernization, indicating ongoing civilian infrastructure projects. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Nikopol district was attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones, impacting Nikopol, Myriv, Marhanets, and Pokrovsk communities. Photo evidence shows damaged structures, including residential and administrative buildings, and an unexploded Grad rocket. НгП раZVедка reports on aftermath of strike on preparatory camp in Kropyvnytskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi district): Threat of enemy strike UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Poltava Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: BPLA reported in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The main group of missiles was in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, maintaining a western course. Subsequently, these missiles entered Ternopil Oblast, then Chernivtsi Oblast (with AD actively engaging a missile over Chernivtsi, 4 fatalities confirmed), and finally Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with confirmed explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk and reports of damage (blown out windows, light injuries) in one village. A Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from a MiG-31K was tracked on a vector towards Starokostiantyniv, then further to Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk and reports of casualties. The Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage and continued strikes. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk were reported as intercepted. Visual evidence of damage to civilian buildings in a village near Ivano-Frankivsk, including blown out windows and structural damage, but specifically note no casualties in the Astra report. Damage to a kindergarten and university (Lviv Polytechnic) in Lviv has been confirmed. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) confirmed in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in the Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo, with 8 inbound approaching Pivdenne/Koblevo. RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 3 injuries (now 2 fatalities confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, 1 male wounded in Vasylivskyi district). Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 7 UAVs shot down. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared video claiming drone activity and possible explosions in Zaporizhzhia direction. A missile threat is active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has provided photos of damage, likely from recent attacks. Alex Parker Returns (RF milblogger) claims a missile strike on a platform in the Black Sea used by UAF as a strongpoint, and shows photos of a small boat, implying UAF maritime presence. This claim is unverified. ASTRA reports 7 injured from Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast, increasing casualty figures. Threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Kherson direction near Prydniprovske. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alarm has been lifted. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone footage of artillery strikes by UAF 44th Artillery Brigade targeting a 2A65 Msta-B (Russian flag visible), confirming successful counter-battery fire against RF forces. This indicates active engagement and effective targeting in the Southern Axis. Colonelcassad also claims a missile strike on a Ukrainian gas platform in the Black Sea, with UAF personnel evacuating by lifeboat. This supports previous Alex Parker Returns claim. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of a significant quantity of drones (reconnaissance and FPV), charging stations, and communication equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front. This indicates ongoing support and replenishment of UAF tactical assets. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 photo depicts energy infrastructure without military subjects. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 [Video message] Caption: Діалог стійкості: делегація МЗС і послів України відвідали Запоріжжя, indicating high-level visit to the region. TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and a part of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Berdyansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Nikopolskyi district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 4 new Shahed UAVs from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: New groups of Shahed UAVs from the Black Sea heading towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod airport. RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber) are gloating about Kyiv impacts, and claiming "precision" of their strikes. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow (Два майора); RF MoD now claims 23 UAVs over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z reports; AV БогомаZ reports 10 UAVs in Bryansk Oblast). Falling UAV debris on a railway station in Rostov Oblast has delayed 26 passenger trains and is reported to cause schedule changes for the next two days (TASS now reports over 50 trains delayed). Visuals from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirm a fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing damaged building and fire at Kamianolomni, with individuals examining UAV debris. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Mishustin also stated Russia is open to investments from "friendly countries" (ТАСС). Flooding reported in Moscow streets (Новости Москвы, TASS video confirmation). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports fires in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits, with video of burning trucks and an explosion near a bridge. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. RF milblogger "Два майора" reports continued "transport collapse" at airports due to UAF drone attacks. Sheremetyevo airport warned of possible increased passenger service time. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces and a defense industry plant to Kyiv. Butusov Plus channel shows propaganda posters of Ramzan Kadyrov in occupied Sevastopol, highlighting RF internal messaging. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations after 12-hour restrictions. TASS provides video of flooded pedestrian tunnel at Pavshino station (MCD-2) in Moscow. ASTRA confirms over 50 trains delayed after UAV attack on Kamianolomni station, Rostov. Новости Москвы urges Moscow residents not to go outside without necessity due to heavy rain, indicating significant disruption to civilian life in the capital. ASTRA videos confirm severe flooding in Moscow, showing an ambulance stuck in water, a three-wheeled vehicle navigating flooded streets, and vehicles in a flooded underpass, all underscoring internal infrastructure vulnerabilities. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services, with plans for an 80-drone attack on one such facility. Colonelcassad shares video of a detention in St. Petersburg, confirming the arrest of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence accomplice who transmitted coordinates of military facilities. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements, indicating continued internal regulatory focus. Kotsnews expresses skepticism regarding Senator Lindsey Graham's motivations, implying his focus is on the American military-industrial complex rather than genuine concern. TASS reports Trump lost 75% of federal cases challenging his decrees, reflecting internal political dynamics in the US. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow and Moscow Oblast, indicating a return to more favorable weather. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts between 08:30 and 12:00 MSK. TASS reports RF MoD claims 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar were destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports RF MoD claims over 1260 UAF military personnel losses in past 24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports RF MoD claims 397 aircraft-type UAVs and one HIMARS missile shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора reiterates RF MoD claims of 397 UAVs and one HIMARS missile shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. Военкор Котенок reports 14 more UAVs shot down over Russian territory in the past four hours. Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag. ТАСС reports MP Nilov proposed remote work for office employees during severe bad weather. ТАСС reports Sergey Leonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, supports remote work during bad weather. ТАСС reports former Ukrainian Interior Ministry and National Guard official Ihor Hrushevsky was found dead in a pool in Spain, confirmed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Alex Parker Returns (RF milblogger) shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды is advertising the manufacture and installation of truck bed caps and covers for various pickup truck models, including Chinese, Japanese, and American brands. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Оперативний ЗСУ provide more detailed footage of the aftermath of strikes on railway nodes in Likhaia and Kamianolomni in Rostov Oblast, confirming significant disruption to enemy logistics. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, indicating continued efforts to recover from UAF drone impacts. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed by more than 2 hours at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo as of 08:00 MSK on July 21, confirming the significant impact of UAF drone operations on RF civilian aviation. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, indicating a recovery effort for disrupted logistics. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, indicating a continued cultural and information warfare element. TASS reports on the situation in Russian airports following restrictions, indicating an assessment of the impact on civilian aviation after drone incidents. Басурин о главном claims "on Ukrainian cemeteries there are no more places for new graves" which is a disinformation attempt to highlight Ukrainian losses. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. TASS reports an additional UAV shot down over Moscow. Alex Parker Returns shares photos/video of a building with historical military portraits, which is irrelevant to military operations. TASS reports Shadiev was invited to the Duma to clarify the bill on fines for extremist search queries, which is a legislative development within RF, not military intelligence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides photos of damage, emphasizing continued RF terror on civilians. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video shows a cemetery with many graves, likely of soldiers, indicating RF military losses. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, a former teacher who interacted with Putin, stating he died in the "special operation," confirming a high-profile RF casualty. Fighterbomber shares promotional images and videos for survival knives, which is a commercial advertisement, not military intelligence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of UAF 61st OMBr tank crews training, demonstrating UAF readiness. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple photos from Russia, claiming a municipal head banned "Russian fascism" and that Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Roma find the region tolerant, aiming to show internal Russian diversity and address extremism concerns internally. ТАСС reports a major oil and gas field has been discovered in Poland, one of the largest in Europe in the last decade, as announced by CEP. This is a significant economic development that could impact regional energy dynamics, but does not directly pertain to current military operations. Военкор Котенок photo shows damaged residential building in Ivanteievka, Moscow region, with debris and scorch marks, claiming it was hit by Ukrainian UAV wreckage after being shot down by RF AD. This confirms kinetic effects of UAF drone operations on RF territory. ASTRA reports a gas explosion in Novorossiysk, with a state of emergency declared and casualties. This indicates a significant internal incident within RF. Kotsnews photo depicts a war cemetery with numerous graves, potentially belonging to Russian military personnel, which would indicate RF losses. Colonelcassad [Photo message] Caption: Нейросеть от Replit вышла из-под контроля, снесла базу данных и попыталась замести следы. (AI-related, not military intelligence). Colonelcassad [Photo message] Caption: (uncaptioned, AI-related, not military intelligence). Два майора [Text] Very interesting, how many ethnic Russian gangs come to Azerbaijan and other former USSR countries to organize illegal migration, traffic drugs, develop diasporic criminal influence on authorities, rape, kill and humiliate. Regarding the "absence" of nationality in criminals. (Propagandistic, internal focus). Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: В ходе ежегодного Фестиваля народного творчества "Беноевская весна-2025" в селении Пачу, в школе хафизов имени Ташу-Хаджи Саясановского, состоялся 6-й республиканский конкурс чтецов Священного Корана. (Video documents a religious event in Chechnya, irrelevant to military operations). Colonelcassad reports Israeli businessman Ravi Salman's claim of significantly underreported Israeli losses (893 vs 35 official) in exchange of strikes with Iran. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Сливочный каприз photos/video show Varachyno, Sumy Oblast, with damaged buildings and a Russian flag, implying RF control or claim over the area, and mention paratrooper losses. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды commentary on Ukrainian-Azerbaijani relations and historical parallels. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports State Duma may recommend differentiated family mortgage rates. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ASTRA reports Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions between 16:00 and 22:00 MSK, with 12 over Rostov Oblast and 8 over Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down between 16:00 and 22:00 MSK, with 12 over Rostov Oblast and 8 over Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AV БогомаZ reports 8 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС video shows memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk, indicating civilian casualties from UAF strikes in RF territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations: Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration, reports expected worsening weather conditions for Kharkiv Oblast, including heavy rains and thunderstorms, which could impact ground operations and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sumy Oblast: RF conducted a strike on Sumy community's Kovpakivskyi district. Two explosions were heard, likely from KABs, impacting a residential area and causing damage to an apartment building. Three individuals are reported injured. Emergency services are on site. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video reports 5 multi-story buildings, a shopping center, and 18 cars damaged in Sumy after RF attack, per OBA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Rostov Oblast): Unidentified drones attacked Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. Videos show multiple explosions/fires at night, consistent with a kinetic strike. This is a significant UAF deep strike against an RF military asset. Saratov airport also experienced temporary flight restrictions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Saratov Oblast): Temporary flight restrictions for aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Saratov airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast (over 80% of monthly norm in 24 hours) indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. TASS reports bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains, cutting off villages, confirming infrastructure vulnerability to weather. "Новости Москвы" provides video of flooded streets and mentions almost 40% of monthly rainfall expected today, confirming continued adverse conditions. TASS video confirms heavy rainfall and reduced visibility on roads in Moscow and Podmoskovie. TASS video shows flooded pedestrian tunnel at Pavshino station, Moscow, confirming continued disruption due to weather. TASS reports heavy rain may persist in Moscow until 19:00 MSK, confirming ongoing adverse weather. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow and Moscow Oblast, indicating a return to more favorable weather conditions, potentially easing civilian disruption but not yet impacting military operations. Transport movement blocked on Volokolamskoye Highway, Admiral Kornilov Street, and near Nagatinskaya Embankment due to bad weather. Новости Москвы video shows flooding inside an elite residential complex in Moscow, further confirming adverse weather impacts on urban infrastructure. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea as of 14:00 MSK, indicating ongoing logistical issues for Crimea via the railway. Новости Москвы reports trains on the Paveletsky direction and Aeroexpress trains are delayed due to weather, further indicating internal transport disruptions. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, highlighting internal infrastructure vulnerabilities to weather. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station, Moscow due to rain, confirming continued weather impacts on RF internal transport. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. ТАСС photo confirms water standing in some areas of Moscow after prolonged downpour, specifically Nagornaya area, further indicating adverse weather impacting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles, with "minus" on Shaheds reported by Nikolaevsky Vanyok. AD actively worked on drones over Podil in Kyiv and on a missile over Chernivtsi. Shahed UAVs approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast were tracked. The Kinzhal was tracked from Zhytomyr Oblast to Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. UAF AF provided continuous updates on missile and UAV movements. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 7 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone in the last day. New group of RF UAVs is reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF AF reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). Air Force reports UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all ballistic missile threats have been lifted. Николаевский Ванёк reports AD clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports ballistic threat clear. РБК-Україна reports Ignat's reaction to a German General's statement about RF wanting to launch up to 2000 drones, indicating continued discussion on air defense capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, a critical reinforcement of AD capabilities. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, confirming continued focus on AD. Олексій Білошицький reports "Predator" brigade's AD destroyed three enemy UAVs (ZALA, Orlan-10, Molniya-2), confirming ongoing tactical AD successes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued AD vigilance in the East. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, confirming ongoing ISR efforts and operational activity from Ukrainian intelligence. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, a significant and immediate reinforcement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming this critical reinforcement. РБК-Україна photo shows a Patriot missile system, accompanied by text from Shmyhal, stating that the supply of Patriot systems and F-16 maintenance are key decisions from the Ramstein meeting, confirming ongoing international support for UAF air defense capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Germany is nearing an agreement with the US to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, as per Bloomberg, indicating continued efforts to bolster UAF air defenses. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno [Photo message] Caption: За повідомленням Генерального штабу, 20 липня було уражено комплекс С-300П у Бєлгородській області. Наша команда має широкий досвід у пошуку та ідентифікації засобів РЛС та ЗРК противника, тому ми одразу помітили, що на відео показано ураження не С-300П, а елементів комплексу С-400, зокрема МЛРС 92Н6Е на базі шасі МЗКТ-7930, а також два тягача БАЗ-69092-012 "Вощина-1", які транспортують енергетичні установки для забезпечення роботи самої РЛС. МЛРС 92Н6Е здійснює "підсвітку" цілі для ракет і є найважливішим елементом комплексу, без якого ракети не летять. Тому знищення такого елементу повністю виводить з ладу комплекс. (UAF intelligence assessment of RF AD losses). Сили оборони Півдня України [Video message] Caption: 💎 Миколаївщина під надійним захистом! (Video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck. Captures nighttime engagement footage, with tracer fire and the drone it's engaging, and daytime operational footage, including crew preparation, ammunition handling, and interviews with soldiers discussing their tactics. The ZU-23 is used to counter Russian Shahed drones. Unit claims to have neutralized over 30 air targets. This demonstrates active UAF AD capabilities in the Mykolaiv area). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a warning for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway is ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense, according to the country's Prime Minister Store. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert has been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Nikopolskyi district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV threat reported for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi district) from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV threat reported for Poltava Oblast from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) BPLA reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, heading towards Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAVs that were on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts have turned around and are flying back towards Samar in a large group. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) BPLA reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north-east/north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Shahed UAVs ("mopeds") for now. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea into Mykolaiv, Odesa Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: UAVs in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv (Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, Shevchenkivskyi) in response to explosions and falling debris. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties (at least one confirmed fatality, 9 injured in Kyiv, 4 injured in Ivano-Frankivsk, 2 fatalities in Zaporizhzhia, 2 fatalities in Dnipropetrovsk, 4 fatalities in Sloviansk, 4 fatalities in Chernivtsi, 1 wounded in Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia, 7 injured in Kherson). Fire reported at residential and warehouse facilities in Solomianskyi district and a kindergarten. Firefighters are actively engaged in Kyiv, with visuals confirming their presence at damaged residential buildings, and Yermak showing fires in Kyiv. Pre-positioned for rapid response in western oblasts following confirmed impacts, including Ivano-Frankivsk and Kamianets-Podilskyi. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated, 2 ongoing, confirming continued emergency response efforts. KMVA video confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kherson. KMVA provides photos/videos showing firefighters engaged in extinguishing fires at damaged multi-story residential buildings in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports relevant services have gone to the explosion site in Kropyvnytskyi district. ASTRA photo and video messages show firefighters responding to damaged residential buildings in Kyiv, confirming active emergency services engagement. РБК-УкраїНА video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling, indicating active public safety measures and response. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka after the recent attacks, aiming to reassure the public about security and order. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows a "Khartia" brigade ground drone evacuating a wounded infantryman at night, highlighting the use of advanced technology for medical evacuation and logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy after the KAB strike on a residential area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video reports emergency services are responding to damage in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized alerts for drones may persist (Lviv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Public warnings for shelter were ongoing in Kyiv and other threatened regions. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) is providing updates on attack consequences; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station closed initially, now fully reopened. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes due to night attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has provided photos of damage, likely from recent attacks. Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized and closed a number of ministries. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. Cabinet of Ministers officially merged Ministry of Strategic Industry with Ministry of Defense. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message on the situation in the OTU "Kharkiv" operational zone as of the morning of 21.07.2025, indicating ongoing localized control and reporting. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues urgent warning. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy has dismissed a number of ambassadors. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's decrees on appointing new ambassadors have appeared. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy signed decrees on appointing 16 new ambassadors. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. STERNENKO confirms Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as the new commander of UAF Ground Forces, including his previous command roles, signifying a new leadership appointment. President Zelenskyy addressed Ukrainian diplomats on the main task of diplomacy: protecting Ukrainian life in Ukraine and inflicting pain on Russia. He emphasized constant search for new formats for cooperation and highlighted the Danish and Czech models for artillery, and French Mirage aviation support. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine plans to open four new embassies by the end of the year, indicating a proactive expansion of diplomatic presence and influence. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 [Video message] Caption: Діалог стійкості: делегація МЗС і послів України відвідали Запоріжжя, confirming a high-level visit and diplomatic activity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia are planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. STERNENKO video confirms Zelenskyy's statement regarding negotiations with Russia in Turkey on Wednesday and a prisoner exchange. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia are planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. TASS reports Zelenskyy stated the next negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are planned for Wednesday in Turkey. ASTRA video message reports new meeting between delegations of Russia and Ukraine planned for Wednesday, July 23, citing Zelenskyy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine will negotiate multiple citizenship with countries where many Ukrainians live, citing Zelenskyy. TASS reports a round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine will take place on July 24. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the next round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations will be held on July 24. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Brigadier General Gennadiy Shapovalov has been appointed as the Head of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports sources in Turkey claim that a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations is planned for July 23 at the Ciragan Palace in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an urgent warning message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP are conducting a special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU". NABU has confirmed that SBU and OGP are conducting investigative actions against its employees. The Office of the Prosecutor General and Mykolaivskiy Vanok, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all confirm the detention of a NABU detective head suspected of aiding RF and doing business in RF, specifically Ruslan Magamedrasulov, indicating a significant internal security operation. Office of Prosecutor General (OGP) provides photo/video evidence supporting the claim of detention of an active MP from the banned OPZZh party, suspected of being a senior FSB agent and influencing NABU. РБК-Україна reports "at least 70 searches" are being conducted by SBU, SBI, and OGP regarding NABU employees, indicating the wide scope of this internal security operation. Оперативний ЗСУ provides video and text confirming SBU and OGP exposed a banned OPZZh party MP, Fedir Khristenko, working for FSB and influencing NABU. РБК-Україна reports court ordered detention of Kyiv prosecutor, Andriy Molochko, involved in fatal traffic accident, indicating domestic legal enforcement not directly related to military operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the death of a former Ukrainian Interior Ministry official in Spain, requiring further investigation to determine if it is related to the conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU and OGP exposed an acting Ukrainian People's Deputy working for Russia, who had significant influence on NABU's activities, including facilitating illegal departures and influencing investigations. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and National Guard of Ukraine, was found dead in a pool in Spain. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows heavily burned bodies of Russian soldiers and damaged vehicles in a wooded area, likely after a Ukrainian strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a court arrested a prosecutor involved in a fatal drunk driving accident in Kyiv, indicating continued internal legal enforcement. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an announcement about the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine," indicating ongoing internal governance and anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports suspicion has been served to the General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU initiated a comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). РБК-Україна reports SBU denies gaining access to NABU and SAP cases, indicating ongoing internal complexities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the General Director of "Rostec" and an assistant to the leadership of the aggressor state have been notified of suspicion, indicating continued efforts to prosecute high-level Russian officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the detention of a NABU elite unit "D-2" employee in Kyiv, suspected of spying for Russian special services, further emphasizing successful counter-intelligence operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU raids on NABU structures continue, showing active operations against internal threats. President Zelenskyy also emphasized the need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for the war, including work on a Special Tribunal and the need for clarity and specific timelines for its launch. РБК-Україна photo regarding multiple citizenship does not provide military intelligence. Оперативний ЗСУ [Video message] Caption: Сьогодні СБУ та ОГП провели спецоперацію з нейтралізації російського впливу на НАБУ: ключові підсумки. (Video detailing the operation). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports G7 Ambassadors are alarmed by the NABU scandal and want a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians are fighting in its ranks, with more expected. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR. This aligns with and attempts to counter the narrative of foreign volunteers supporting UAF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows an interview with a foreign volunteer, stating 2000 Colombian fighters have arrived in Ukraine and are professionally performing combat tasks, confirming continued influx of foreign fighters. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel from 352nd motorized rifle regiment were captured by UAF forces from "Khorne Group" 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, and are requesting exchange for Azovstal defenders, if verified, indicates UAF successes in capturing RF personnel in border regions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features two individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, one from the 352nd motorized rifle regiment and another from the 358th railway brigade, providing personal information, possibly indicating captured personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade is crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment," indicating localized resource constraints for specific units. Zelenskyy conducts meeting with military, internal affairs, and foreign ministers, appoints 16 new ambassadors and sets diplomatic priorities, indicating proactive foreign policy and resource alignment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a NATO graphic announcing the 2026-2030 NATO Common Funding Resource Plan provides resources for priority activities in support of Ukraine (JATEC and NSATU), indicating future long-term support. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative "Gift for Putin" which accumulated nearly €2.5 million for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, including footage of soldiers operating a D-30 in a snowy environment, indicating international support for material requirements. Zelenskiy / Official video shows President Zelenskyy presenting new Minister of Defence Denys Shmyhal, emphasizing the need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones, and a response to Russian strikes. Zelenskiy / Official states Ukraine needs to increase its share of domestic weapon production to 50% within the next six months. Zelenskiy / Official highlights hundreds of agreements with partners for weapon supply, joint production, and investments, and demands a report on their audit and implementation within ten days. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reiterates Zelenskyy's statements on domestic weapon production and international agreements. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, confirming continued focus on military resource alignment. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requires REB means for combat missions and safe logistics, indicating specific equipment requirements. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine invested over $20 billion in its own defense industry over two years, per Umerov. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting. This is a critical and immediate resource requirement. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support. РБК-Україна reports an urgent fundraiser for drones for the UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating a critical development for UAF domestic production capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil, if the US does so, indicating efforts to further constrain RF's financial resources, which indirectly benefits UAF. ASTRA reports the Ramstein meeting has started, and Ukraine stated it needs $6 billion by the end of the year. Оперативний ЗСУ provides further details on the results of the 29th Ramstein meeting as reported by Shmyhal, indicating continued efforts to secure military aid. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides an infographic summarizing the key outcomes of the 29th Ramstein meeting, emphasizing hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds and funds for drones, confirming ongoing international support for UAF resource requirements. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continue participation in financing the Ukrainian defense industry through the "Danish model", as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal, indicating continued and specialized international financial support for UAF armored capabilities. РБК-Україна photo shows Patriot system and text from Shmyhal, emphasizing Patriot supply and F-16 maintenance as key decisions at the Ramstein meeting, confirming critical resource requirements for UAF air defense and air force modernization. Zelenskiy / Official [Video message] Caption: Сьогодні весь день триває ліквідація наслідків російського удару по наших містах, громадах. Різні регіони, від Харківщини та Сумщини до Франківська. Сильна атака була проти Києва. Значну частину «шахедів» і ракет вдалося збити. (Zelenskyy discusses cleanup and defense needs). РБК-Україна [Video message] Caption: ⚡️Якщо Путін так здурів на темі "Шахедів" і терору, вони мають залишитись без логістики, - Зеленський. (Zelenskyy on needing to cut Russian logistics). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS [Photo message] Caption: 🇬🇧Британія запустить 50-денну кампанію з озброєння України, - The Telegraph (UK launching 50-day campaign to arm Ukraine, indicating continued international resource provision). РБК-Україна reports Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official states that NATO can provide additional funding for the Ukrainian army, specifically for military motivation and for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reiterates Zelenskyy's statements about NATO potentially providing additional funding for the Ukrainian army, focusing on military motivation and funding for drones and military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos showing tank crews of the 61st Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) conducting rigorous training, emphasizing combat proficiency, precise firing, confident maneuvering, and clear crew interaction. This indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and improve UAF combat readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF morale appears high, with Ukrainian soldiers expressing defiance and solidarity in a compilation video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF is executing a high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. This included:
    • Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches, with 24 cruise missiles detected across a significantly expanded area, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts.
    • Sustained Shahed UAV attacks targeting Kyiv (~10 initially over Kyiv), with 426 total OWA UAVs launched. Shahed UAVs were reported approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast, with some now targeting areas around Brovary and Slavutych. New Shahed groups are active in the Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine (Pivdenne/Koblevo). A new group of Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast reported towards Kharkiv Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New Shahed threat for Kharkiv Oblast.
    • Re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launch, targeting Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, indicating a critical re-engagement of this system on the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg.
    • TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы (KABs/Glide Bombs) on Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued use of guided aviation munitions.
    • RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber) are gloating about Kyiv impacts, and claiming "precision" of their strikes. "Dva Mayora" channel is gloating about the "accuracy" of their strikes and predicting increasing strikes on capitals and critical infrastructure. Colonelcassad is disseminating photos of claimed destroyed UAF M2 Bradley BMPs, and video of claimed captured UAF personnel. "Басурин о главном" posting historical photos ("#ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ") indicates standard content unrelated to current ops. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a generic "productive Monday" photo with soldiers, indicating morale messaging. Operatsiya Z and Colonelcassad circulate photos/videos of claimed impacts in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. Kotsnews shows video of "precise fire damage" against infantry. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) provides photo of large explosion plume, captioned "Beautiful," likely celebrating recent strikes. Alex Parker Returns claims missile strike on Black Sea platform and shows an image of a small boat, implying UAF presence. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple units of enemy equipment by the "Kaira" squad of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, showing a strike on a pickup truck. STERNENKO shares 18+ video footage of FPV drone strikes, claiming destruction of a quad bike with occupant, and a motorcycle and rider in Luhansk, and a car, likely showcasing RF losses. НгП раZVедка provides a summary of "Night strike of retribution." TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, claiming it affected American business. Fighterbomber video shows a ground-level view of a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, on an airfield, indicating ongoing aviation operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion, confirming continued air-to-ground strike capabilities. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," resulting in an explosion and smoke plume, indicating continued tactical drone strikes. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, confirming continued aviation use in frontline areas. ТАСС video shows a burning pickup truck in the special operation zone after being attacked by three drones, as reported by the host of "Large-caliber trouble" Smirnov, indicating continued RF vulnerability to UAF tactical drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" reinforces RF deep strike narrative. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes over a city and multiple explosions at night in an urban environment, and damage to a multi-story building, consistent with ongoing military operations/attacks. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows FPV drone pilots destroying an enemy UAV, indicating counter-drone operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video shows individuals assembling and preparing drones, implying ongoing efforts to maintain and increase drone operational capacity. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a drone strike on enemy vehicles, likely implying successful strikes against UAF transport. WarGonzo shares a promotional video for "USX-1 DEFIANT" and DARPA's "NOMARS" project, indicating continued interest and investment in unmanned maritime systems, which could be used for reconnaissance or strike. Colonelcassad shares photos showing the movement of Geranium UAVs and missiles over Ukrainian territory yesterday, indicating continued aerial activity. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle in the Balagan district of the DNR, confirming continued RF drone effectiveness in tactical engagements and targeting UAF armor. Alex Parker Returns video claims that due to scaled-up "Geranium" (Shahed) production, these drones are now used directly on the front line in Sumy Oblast, indicating a tactical adaptation for short-range strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, indicates continued impact of UAF drone strikes on RF territory, including civilian infrastructure. Воин DV video shows aerial footage of a military vehicle, possibly a Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or artillery piece, firing. The video transitions to show the impact of the projectiles in a wooded area, causing explosions and smoke. The video also shows a ground-level view of an RF helicopter, likely a Ka-52 "Alligator," firing unguided rockets in a "vertical" or "pop-up" attack profile. MoD Russia video shows attack UAVs engaging AFU troops, confirming RF tactical drone use for kinetic effects. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a significant explosion and fire, confirming RF deep strike capabilities. Сливочный каприз [Photo message] Caption: 21.07.25 Красноармейск - Полтавка. (Satellite imagery and drone footage suggesting military operation in Ukraine). Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Кадры работы "Гарпии" (Aerial footage shows a settlement, an explosion, and subsequent fire/smoke, consistent with RF strike capability). MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and operational range. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows aftermath footage of a destroyed residential area, with casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the evening, the enemy struck the civilian infrastructure of the Putyvl community with drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 [Video message] Caption: 🫡 Работаем, ещё две Бабы-Яги пошли ко дну💥 (Video shows drone footage, likely from an RF drone, with telemetry data visible. The caption claims "two more Baba-Yagas went to the bottom," implying the destruction of two UAF heavy drones. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ❤️ Работа дроноводов, снайперов, штурмовиков группы Аида СпН "Ахмат" МО РФ с мая по июль 2025 года. (Video shows drone footage of combat, including strikes and explosions, indicating active RF drone operations). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns [Video message] Caption: А быстро тут. В Покровске уже работают наши ДРГ, а хохлы вынуждены вступать в ближние стрелковые бои. Заход в город происходит через поселок Зверево. (Video shows views from a moving vehicle, with a person appearing to be a soldier exiting a pickup truck, suggesting RF DRG activity. The accompanying text directly claims RF DRG operations in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video of drone footage showing a "Kozak" vehicle, a "Paladin," "URAL-4320" trucks, and targeting of enemy positions, including a "DOT" and communication systems, implying effective RF drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno [Photo message] Caption: Координати уражених об'єктів. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad video shows "Harpy" drones engaging UAF infantry, confirming continued RF tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports (Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Nizhny Novgorod) have lifted temporary restrictions, indicating a return to normal domestic air traffic following previous UAF drone activity. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow by midnight (Два майора). RF MoD now claims 23 UAVs over Moscow region and 74 total UAVs destroyed over RF territory (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z). RF Minister of Transport Nikitin addressed concerns about flight delays under "Kover" plan (temporary flight restrictions due to UAVs). "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. Red Wings airlines announced new flights from Kazan and Yekaterinburg to Gelendzhik, indicating confidence in civilian air traffic. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts between 08:30 and 12:00 MSK. TASS reports RF MoD claims 397 aircraft-type UAVs shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора reiterates RF MoD claims of 397 UAVs shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок reports 14 more UAVs shot down over Russian territory in the past four hours. AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter were introduced at Sheremetyevo airport. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days due to drone attacks, highlighting the impact of UAF drone operations. TASS reports a crash of an aircraft in Bangladesh with at least 20 injuries, while not directly related to the conflict, highlights the general risks associated with aviation. Военкор Котенок claims NATO aviation, likely reconnaissance aircraft with transponders off, are patrolling the western Black Sea, indicating RF awareness of NATO air presence. РБК-Україна reports a fighter jet crash at a school in Bangladesh, claiming dozens dead and over 100 injured, adding to general aviation risk awareness. TASS reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down between 12:20 and 15:00, five over Moscow region, confirming continued RF AD activity and claims. AV БогомаZ reports an additional 6 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, confirming continued RF AD activity. Два майора photo message and caption regarding Ukrainian planes hiding in Romanian airspace suggests RF observation of UAF aviation maneuvers near the border. TASS reports an additional UAV shot down over Moscow. ТАСС reports that flight restrictions at Kaluga airport have been lifted, indicating normal civilian air traffic operations in the area. Fighterbomber posts multiple photos of RF fighter jet cockpits and pilots, serving to highlight continued RF aviation readiness and operations, implying effective C2 for air force operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast attacked by drones, causing explosions/fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Temporary flight restrictions implemented at Saratov airport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar" through multi-directional assault, providing drone footage of damaged structures and ground movement. Leonid Sharov from the "Zapad" grouping claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. "Dnevnik Desantnika" shared video of soldiers training against aerial targets (possibly drones/balloons) and drone activity on Zaporizhzhia direction, also appealed for donations for drones and Starlink. Rogozin of "Dva Mayora" commented on the Zaporizhzhia front, but no specific operational details were provided. RF sources claim the establishment of a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) to support future operations into Sumy Oblast. This claim requires verification. Рыбарь provides a general summary for the morning of July 21st. TASS claims "liberation of Bila Hora" which "allows cutting an important supply route of the UAF in DNR" as stated by Pushilin. "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) provides visual confirmation of a destroyed settlement between Kostiantynivka and Bila Hora, indicating intense combat in this area. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. DNR People's Militia channel claims destruction of a UAF communication antenna and a "Baba Yaga" heavy drone. Rybar provides image/caption of new rockets for helicopters, indicating focus on aviation munition development. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from the 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment (Tsentr Group of Forces) giving details about the claimed liberation of Popov Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic, including aerial views with smoke plumes and descriptions of encountering enemy positions in basements and houses. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Colonelcassad claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video and caption indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction, showing military vehicles. Alex Parker Returns video shows vehicle moving on dirt road at twilight, with sparks and smoke in distance, suggesting an explosion or artillery impact, consistent with ongoing conflict. Mash na Donbashe video shows individuals, some in military attire, checking fishing nets, collecting fish, and handling packaged goods, possibly related to resource gathering or illicit activities during conflict. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in the vicinity of Belaya Gora in the Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a Russian soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons. He states capture of Belaya Gora is significant for logistics and communications to Kostiantynivka. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion, indicating continued ground operations and drone integration. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," confirming ongoing tactical drone use in ground operations. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions, confirming widespread ground engagements. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, indicating persistent RF ground pressure in border regions. Colonelcassad provides a video of a four-wheeled robotic platform with an antenna, suggesting ongoing development and potential deployment of UGVs for reconnaissance or delivery. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows drone reconnaissance and attacks on enemy vehicles and positions in Pokrovsk, indicating continued heavy fighting in this direction. Воин DV video showing a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform which was loaded with supplies, destroying a generator and possibly fuel cans, confirming RF's ability to interdict UGV logistics. Народная милиция ДНР channel claims to show "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts," aiming to demonstrate tactical success and intelligence effectiveness. TASS provides video of claimed destruction of two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using aerial footage with crosshairs on moving vehicles. This is a significant tactical claim of eliminating retreating forces. Воин DV reports on the Southern-Donetsk direction, mentioning fighting near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and stating that the enemy is trying to regain previously lost positions, confirming ongoing ground engagements and RF defensive/counter-offensive actions. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming they broke UAF defenses in an area they couldn't approach for a year, implying a significant tactical breakthrough in the Southern Axis. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai (Donetsk People's Republic), indicating continued RF ground offensive capabilities and successful targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of engagements against enemy forces (identified by Russian flags) including targeting of personnel, positions, and a fuel/lubricant depot (Sklad PMM), confirming RF ground force deployments and UAF counter-tactics. STERNENKO video reports that a Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment is holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued localized ground engagements. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, supporting claims of continued RF ground pressure in the East. Сили оборони Півдня України video, featuring drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions (likely artillery), suggests ongoing UAF efforts to identify and target RF ground assets, implying continued RF ground presence and activity in the Southern operational zone. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ video shows drone footage of an FPV drone strike on a Russian military vehicle, possibly a Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or other artillery piece, resulting in an explosion and the vehicle being engulfed in smoke and fire. This indicates a successful UAF strike against enemy ground assets. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows drone footage of a strike against a Russian S-300 air defense system located in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in a large explosion. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video depicts a combat scenario with Russian flags and casualties in a wooded area, indicating RF ground operations are incurring losses. Colonelcassad video shows a wounded RF soldier being evacuated by tank crews under drone protection, confirming RF ground operations and the need for medical evacuation. MoD Russia video shows attack UAVs engaging AFU troops, confirming RF tactical drone use for kinetic effects. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Сквозь огонь врага: наша бронегруппа штурмует кирпичный завод в Малой Токмачке, наступая на Запорожском фронте. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] showing military vehicles advancing, one exploding near a vehicle, in open, grassy terrain, with background smoke plumes, suggesting active engagement and assault operations. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] Caption: ‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️ Наши ДРГ уже в Покровске! - кадры одной из засад на машину ВСУ (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle moving along a rural road, with impacts near vehicle, damage to rear window, and blood present, indicating a direct engagement or ambush). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 [Video message] Caption: 🪂 Запорожское направление, р-он Каменского. (Video shows aftermath of search/raid, with items including medical tourniquet and precursor chemical '2-bromo-4'-methylpropiophenone CAS: 1451-82-7' found. Suggests possible clandestine lab or illicit activities. While not direct military operations, it could relate to counter-narcotics or criminal investigations that may have tangential links to destabilizing elements, or seizure of materials that could be diverted for other purposes. This could imply RF interdiction of illicit activities in occupied areas or along FLOT). Оперативний ЗСУ [Video message] Caption: 🔥Демонстрація ефективності наземних роботизованих комплексі1000 г.' (Demonstration of GUR ground robotic complexes in combat on Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions. Video shows deployment and operation of a ground drone, possibly for reconnaissance or strike, with potential engagement of a building and observed explosion). Военкор Котенок photos confirm activity in Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Otvazhnye" broke through to Pokrovsk and fighting is on the outskirts, stating the situation for UAF is critical. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) STERNENKO video shows UAF drone cutting deep logistics and creating kill zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a daily summary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора [Photo message] Caption: Покровск (Красноармейск). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ✨ Фронтовая броня ✨ (Video shows two RF military personnel in front of a camouflaged vehicle, expressing gratitude to volunteers for providing "vehicle kits." This indicates continued RF reliance on civilian support for equipment, but also implies ongoing frontline operations and attempts to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Армия России завершает разгром врага в Полтавке, прорываясь к Мирнограду! (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ❤️ Работа дроноводов, снайперов, штурмовиков группы Аида СпН "Ахмат" МО РФ с мая по июль 2025 года. (Video shows drone footage of combat, including strikes and explosions against targets). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Засада нашей ДРГ на пикап ВСУ в Покровске (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle, damage to rear window, and blood present, indicating a direct engagement or ambush on a UAF pickup truck). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок photos with caption "Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction (right flank)/Druzhkovka direction" appear to be satellite or aerial imagery with overlaid red arrows, likely indicating RF activity or areas of interest near Stepanovka. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Военкор Котенок photo message "Sumy direction. Vinaigrette in Kondratovka" is a satellite or aerial image with overlays indicating activity in the Sumy region. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z reports RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Роботизированная платформа противника. (Video shows UAF robotic platform targeted by RF drone. CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• «Зона СВО» video of an individual speaking in Russian, addressing a controversial figure and criticizing their alleged lack of combat experience and slander, suggesting internal RF information operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Control Measures: RF has maintained temporary flight restrictions in response to UAV attacks, but these are being lifted, indicating efforts to restore normal civilian operations. RF is actively promoting a narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Mishustin also stated Russia is open to investments from "friendly countries" (ТАСС). TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces and a defense industry plant to Kyiv. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services. TASS reports Russia does not plan to withdraw from the OPCW despite the crisis in the organization, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Unconfirmed video from a RF milblogger claims a successful ambush by a RF DRG on a UAF vehicle in Pokrovsk, with occupants under fire and injuries visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Internal Security): An individual in military-style clothing, possibly a captured RF serviceman, is shown blindfolded and bound, suggesting an interrogation or capture scenario. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast (over 80% of monthly norm in 24 hours) indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. TASS reports bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains, cutting off villages, confirming infrastructure vulnerability to weather. "Новости Москвы" provides video of flooded streets and mentions almost 40% of monthly rainfall expected today, confirming continued adverse conditions. TASS video confirms heavy rainfall and reduced visibility on roads in Moscow and Podmoskovie. TASS video shows flooded pedestrian tunnel at Pavshino station, Moscow, confirming continued disruption due to weather. TASS reports heavy rain may persist in Moscow until 19:00 MSK, confirming ongoing adverse weather. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow and Moscow Oblast, indicating a return to more favorable weather conditions, potentially easing civilian disruption but not yet impacting military operations. Transport movement blocked on Volokolamskoye Highway, Admiral Kornilov Street, and near Nagatinskaya Embankment due to bad weather. Новости Москвы video shows flooding inside an elite residential complex in Moscow, further confirming adverse weather impacts on urban infrastructure. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea as of 14:00 MSK, indicating ongoing logistical issues for Crimea via the railway. Новости Москвы reports trains on the Paveletsky direction and Aeroexpress trains are delayed due to weather, further indicating internal transport disruptions. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, highlighting internal infrastructure vulnerabilities to weather. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station, Moscow due to rain, confirming continued weather impacts on RF internal transport. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. ТАСС photo confirms water standing in some areas of Moscow after prolonged downpour, specifically Nagornaya area, further indicating adverse weather impacting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles, with "minus" on Shaheds reported by Nikolaevsky Vanyok. AD actively worked on drones over Podil in Kyiv and on a missile over Chernivtsi. Shahed UAVs approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast were tracked. The Kinzhal was tracked from Zhytomyr Oblast to Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. UAF AF provided continuous updates on missile and UAV movements. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 7 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone in the last day. New group of RF UAVs is reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF AF reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). Air Force reports UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all ballistic missile threats have been lifted. Николаевский Ванёк reports AD clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports ballistic threat clear. РБК-Україна reports Ignat's reaction to a German General's statement about RF wanting to launch up to 2000 drones, indicating continued discussion on air defense capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, a critical reinforcement of AD capabilities. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, confirming continued focus on AD. Олексій Білошицький reports "Predator" brigade's AD destroyed three enemy UAVs (ZALA, Orlan-10, Molniya-2), confirming ongoing tactical AD successes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued AD vigilance in the East. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, confirming ongoing ISR efforts and operational activity from Ukrainian intelligence. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, a significant and immediate reinforcement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany has agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming this critical reinforcement. РБК-Україна photo shows a Patriot missile system, accompanied by text from Shmyhal, stating that the supply of Patriot systems and F-16 maintenance are key decisions from the Ramstein meeting, confirming ongoing international support for UAF air defense capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Germany is nearing an agreement with the US to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, as per Bloomberg, indicating continued efforts to bolster UAF air defenses. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno [Photo message] Caption: За повідомленням Генерального штабу, 20 липня було уражено комплекс С-300П у Бєлгородській області. Наша команда має широкий досвід у пошуку та ідентифікації засобів РЛС та ЗРК противника, тому ми одразу помітили, що на відео показано ураження не С-300П, а елементів комплексу С-400, зокрема МЛРС 92Н6Е на базі шасі МЗКТ-7930, а також два тягача БАЗ-69092-012 "Вощина-1", які транспортують енергетичні установки для забезпечення роботи самої РЛС. МЛРС 92Н6Е здійснює "підсвітку" цілі для ракет і є найважливішим елементом комплексу, без якого ракети не летять. Тому знищення такого елементу повністю виводить з ладу комплекс. (UAF intelligence assessment of RF AD losses). Сили оборони Півдня України [Video message] Caption: 💎 Миколаївщина під надійним захистом! (Video shows Ukrainian soldiers operating a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck. Captures nighttime engagement footage, with tracer fire and the drone it's engaging, and daytime operational footage, including crew preparation, ammunition handling, and interviews with soldiers discussing their tactics. The ZU-23 is used to counter Russian Shahed drones. Unit claims to have neutralized over 30 air targets. This demonstrates active UAF AD capabilities in the Mykolaiv area). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a warning for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway is ready to provide significant additional funding for Ukraine's air defense, according to the country's Prime Minister Store. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert has been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Nikopolskyi district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV threat reported for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi district) from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV threat reported for Poltava Oblast from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) BPLA reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, heading towards Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAVs that were on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts have turned around and are flying back towards Samar in a large group. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) BPLA reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north-east/north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Shahed UAVs ("mopeds") for now. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: 4 Shaheds from Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Pavlohrad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: New groups of Shahed UAVs from Black Sea into Mykolaiv, Odesa Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: UAVs in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, heading northwest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv (Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, Shevchenkivskyi) in response to explosions and falling debris. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties (at least one confirmed fatality, 9 injured in Kyiv, 4 injured in Ivano-Frankivsk, 2 fatalities in Zaporizhzhia, 2 fatalities in Dnipropetrovsk, 4 fatalities in Sloviansk, 4 fatalities in Chernivtsi, 1 wounded in Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia, 7 injured in Kherson). Fire reported at residential and warehouse facilities in Solomianskyi district and a kindergarten. Firefighters are actively engaged in Kyiv, with visuals confirming their presence at damaged residential buildings, and Yermak showing fires in Kyiv. Pre-positioned for rapid response in western oblasts following confirmed impacts, including Ivano-Frankivsk and Kamianets-Podilskyi. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated, 2 ongoing, confirming continued emergency response efforts. KMVA video confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kherson. KMVA provides photos/videos showing firefighters engaged in extinguishing fires at damaged multi-story residential buildings in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports relevant services have gone to the explosion site in Kropyvnytskyi district. ASTRA photo and video messages show firefighters responding to damaged residential buildings in Kyiv, confirming active emergency services engagement. РБК-УкраїНА video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling, indicating active public safety measures and response. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka after the recent attacks, aiming to reassure the public about security and order. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows a "Khartia" brigade ground drone evacuating a wounded infantryman at night, highlighting the use of advanced technology for medical evacuation and logistical support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Cleanup and emergency services are working in Sumy after the KAB strike on a residential area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video reports emergency services are responding to damage in Sumy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized alerts for drones may persist (Lviv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Public warnings for shelter were ongoing in Kyiv and other threatened regions. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) is providing updates on attack consequences; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station closed initially, now fully reopened. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes due to night attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has provided photos of damage, likely from recent attacks. Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized and closed a number of ministries. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. Cabinet of Ministers officially merged Ministry of Strategic Industry with Ministry of Defense. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message on the situation in the OTU "Kharkiv" operational zone as of the morning of 21.07.2025, indicating ongoing localized control and reporting. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues urgent warning. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy has dismissed a number of ambassadors. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's decrees on appointing new ambassadors have appeared. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy signed decrees on appointing 16 new ambassadors. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. STERNENKO confirms Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as the new commander of UAF Ground Forces, including his previous command roles, signifying a new leadership appointment. President Zelenskyy addressed Ukrainian diplomats on the main task of diplomacy: protecting Ukrainian life in Ukraine and inflicting pain on Russia. He emphasized constant search for new formats for cooperation and highlighted the Danish and Czech models for artillery, and French Mirage aviation support. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine plans to open four new embassies by the end of the year, indicating a proactive expansion of diplomatic presence and influence. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 [Video message] Caption: Діалог стійкості: делегація МЗС і послів України відвідали Запоріжжя, confirming a high-level visit and diplomatic activity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia are planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. STERNENKO video confirms Zelenskyy's statement regarding negotiations with Russia in Turkey on Wednesday and a prisoner exchange. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy states new negotiations with Russia are planned for Wednesday in Istanbul. TASS reports Zelenskyy stated the next negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are planned for Wednesday in Turkey. ASTRA video message reports new meeting between delegations of Russia and Ukraine planned for Wednesday, July 23, citing Zelenskyy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukraine will negotiate multiple citizenship with countries where many Ukrainians live, citing Zelenskyy. TASS reports a round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine will take place on July 24. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the next round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations will be held on July 24. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Brigadier General Gennadiy Shapovalov has been appointed as the Head of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports sources in Turkey claim that a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations is planned for July 23 at the Ciragan Palace in Istanbul. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an urgent warning message. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP are conducting a special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU". NABU has confirmed that SBU and OGP are conducting investigative actions against its employees. The Office of the Prosecutor General and Mykolaivskiy Vanok, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all confirm the detention of a NABU detective head suspected of aiding RF and doing business in RF, specifically Ruslan Magamedrasulov, indicating a significant internal security operation. Office of Prosecutor General (OGP) provides photo/video evidence supporting the claim of detention of an active MP from the banned OPZZh party, suspected of being a senior FSB agent and influencing NABU. РБК-Україна reports "at least 70 searches" are being conducted by SBU, SBI, and OGP regarding NABU employees, indicating the wide scope of this internal security operation. Оперативний ЗСУ provides video and text confirming SBU and OGP exposed a banned OPZZh party MP, Fedir Khristenko, working for FSB and influencing NABU. РБК-Україна reports court ordered detention of Kyiv prosecutor, Andriy Molochko, involved in fatal traffic accident, indicating domestic legal enforcement not directly related to military operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the death of a former Ukrainian Interior Ministry official in Spain, requiring further investigation to determine if it is related to the conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU and OGP exposed an acting Ukrainian People's Deputy working for Russia, who had significant influence on NABU's activities, including facilitating illegal departures and influencing investigations. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and National Guard of Ukraine, was found dead in a pool in Spain. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows heavily burned bodies of Russian soldiers and damaged vehicles in a wooded area, likely after a Ukrainian strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a court arrested a prosecutor involved in a fatal drunk driving accident in Kyiv, indicating continued internal legal enforcement. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an announcement about the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine," indicating ongoing internal governance and anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports suspicion has been served to the General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU initiated a comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). РБК-Україна reports SBU denies gaining access to NABU and SAP cases, indicating ongoing internal complexities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the General Director of "Rostec" and an assistant to the leadership of the aggressor state have been notified of suspicion, indicating continued efforts to prosecute high-level Russian officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the detention of a NABU elite unit "D-2" employee in Kyiv, suspected of spying for Russian special services, further emphasizing successful counter-intelligence operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU raids on NABU structures continue, showing active operations against internal threats. President Zelenskyy also emphasized the need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for the war, including work on a Special Tribunal and the need for clarity and specific timelines for its launch. РБК-Україна photo regarding multiple citizenship does not provide military intelligence. Оперативний ЗСУ [Video message] Caption: Сьогодні СБУ та ОГП провели спецоперацію з нейтралізації російського впливу на НАБУ: ключові підсумки. (Video detailing the operation). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports G7 Ambassadors are alarmed by the NABU scandal and want a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukrainian police helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians are fighting in its ranks, with more expected. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR. This aligns with and attempts to counter the narrative of foreign volunteers supporting UAF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows an interview with a foreign volunteer, stating 2000 Colombian fighters have arrived in Ukraine and are professionally performing combat tasks, confirming continued influx of foreign fighters. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel from 352nd motorized rifle regiment were captured by UAF forces from "Khorne Group" 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, and are requesting exchange for Azovstal defenders, if verified, indicates UAF successes in capturing RF personnel in border regions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features two individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, one from the 352nd motorized rifle regiment and another from the 358th railway brigade, providing personal information, possibly indicating captured personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade is crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment," indicating localized resource constraints for specific units. Zelenskyy conducts meeting with military, internal affairs, and foreign ministers, appoints 16 new ambassadors and sets diplomatic priorities, indicating proactive foreign policy and resource alignment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a NATO graphic announcing the 2026-2030 NATO Common Funding Resource Plan provides resources for priority activities in support of Ukraine (JATEC and NSATU), indicating future long-term support. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative "Gift for Putin" which accumulated nearly €2.5 million for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, including footage of soldiers operating a D-30 in a snowy environment, indicating international support for material requirements. Zelenskiy / Official video shows President Zelenskyy presenting new Minister of Defence Denys Shmyhal, emphasizing the need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones, and a response to Russian strikes. Zelenskiy / Official states Ukraine needs to increase its share of domestic weapon production to 50% within the next six months. Zelenskiy / Official highlights hundreds of agreements with partners for weapon supply, joint production, and investments, and demands a report on their audit and implementation within ten days. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reiterates Zelenskyy's statements on domestic weapon production and international agreements. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, confirming continued focus on military resource alignment. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requires REB means for combat missions and safe logistics, indicating specific equipment requirements. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine invested over $20 billion in its own defense industry over two years, per Umerov. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting. This is a critical and immediate resource requirement. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support. РБК-Україна reports an urgent fundraiser for drones for the UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating a critical development for UAF domestic production capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil, if the US does so, indicating efforts to further constrain RF's financial resources, which indirectly benefits UAF. ASTRA reports the Ramstein meeting has started, and Ukraine stated it needs $6 billion by the end of the year. Оперативний ЗСУ provides further details on the results of the 29th Ramstein meeting as reported by Shmyhal, indicating continued efforts to secure military aid. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides an infographic summarizing the key outcomes of the 29th Ramstein meeting, emphasizing hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds and funds for drones, confirming ongoing international support for UAF resource requirements. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continue participation in financing the Ukrainian defense industry through the "Danish model", as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal, indicating continued and specialized international financial support for UAF armored capabilities. РБК-Україна photo shows Patriot system and text from Shmyhal, emphasizing Patriot supply and F-16 maintenance as key decisions at the Ramstein meeting, confirming critical resource requirements for UAF air defense and air force modernization. Zelenskiy / Official [Video message] Caption: Сьогодні весь день триває ліквідація наслідків російського удару по наших містах, громадах. Різні регіони, від Харківщини та Сумщини до Франківська. Сильна атака була проти Києва. Значну частину «шахедів» і ракет вдалося збити. (Zelenskyy discusses cleanup and defense needs). РБК-Україна [Video message] Caption: ⚡️Якщо Путін так здурів на темі "Шахедів" і терору, вони мають залишитись без логістики, - Зеленський. (Zelenskyy on needing to cut Russian logistics). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS [Photo message] Caption: 🇬🇧Британія запустить 50-денну кампанію з озброєння України, - The Telegraph (UK launching 50-day campaign to arm Ukraine, indicating continued international resource provision). РБК-Україна reports Canada will allocate $15 million for Leopard 2 tank repairs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zelenskiy / Official states that NATO can provide additional funding for the Ukrainian army, specifically for military motivation and for drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reiterates Zelenskyy's statements about NATO potentially providing additional funding for the Ukrainian army, focusing on military motivation and funding for drones and military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos showing tank crews of the 61st Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) conducting rigorous training, emphasizing combat proficiency, precise firing, confident maneuvering, and clear crew interaction. This indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and improve UAF combat readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF morale appears high, with Ukrainian soldiers expressing defiance and solidarity in a compilation video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF is executing a high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. This included:
    • Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches, with 24 cruise missiles detected across a significantly expanded area, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts.
    • Sustained Shahed UAV attacks targeting Kyiv (~10 initially over Kyiv), with 426 total OWA UAVs launched. Shahed UAVs were reported approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast, with some now targeting areas around Brovary and Slavutych. New Shahed groups are active in the Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine (Pivdenne/Koblevo). A new group of Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast reported towards Kharkiv Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New Shahed threat for Kharkiv Oblast.
    • Re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launch, targeting Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, indicating a critical re-engagement of this system on the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg.
    • TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovets Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы (KABs/Glide Bombs) on Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued use of guided aviation munitions.
    • RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber) are gloating about Kyiv impacts, and claiming "precision" of their strikes. "Dva Mayora" channel is gloating about the "accuracy" of their strikes and predicting increasing strikes on capitals and critical infrastructure. Colonelcassad is disseminating photos of claimed destroyed UAF M2 Bradley BMPs, and video of claimed captured UAF personnel. "Басурин о главном" posting historical photos ("#ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ") indicates standard content unrelated to current ops. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a generic "productive Monday" photo with soldiers, indicating morale messaging. Operatsiya Z and Colonelcassad circulate photos/videos of claimed impacts in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. Kotsnews shows video of "precise fire damage" against infantry. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) provides photo of large explosion plume, captioned "Beautiful," likely celebrating recent strikes. Alex Parker Returns claims missile strike on Black Sea platform and shows an image of a small boat, implying UAF presence. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple units of enemy equipment by the "Kaira" squad of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, showing a strike on a pickup truck. STERNENKO shares 18+ video footage of FPV drone strikes, claiming destruction of a quad bike with occupant, and a motorcycle and rider in Luhansk, and a car, likely showcasing RF losses. НгП раZVедка provides a summary of "Night strike of retribution." TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, claiming it affected American business. Fighterbomber video shows a ground-level view of a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, on an airfield, indicating ongoing aviation operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion, confirming continued air-to-ground strike capabilities. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," resulting in an explosion and smoke plume, indicating continued tactical drone strikes. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, confirming continued aviation use in frontline areas. ТАСС video shows a burning pickup truck in the special operation zone after being attacked by three drones, as reported by the host of "Large-caliber trouble" Smirnov, indicating continued RF vulnerability to UAF tactical drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" reinforces RF deep strike narrative. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes over a city and multiple explosions at night in an urban environment, and damage to a multi-story building, consistent with ongoing military operations/attacks. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows FPV drone pilots destroying an enemy UAV, indicating counter-drone operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video shows individuals assembling and preparing drones, implying ongoing efforts to maintain and increase drone operational capacity. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a drone strike on enemy vehicles, likely implying successful strikes against UAF transport. WarGonzo shares a promotional video for "USX-1 DEFIANT" and DARPA's "NOMARS" project, indicating continued interest and investment in unmanned maritime systems, which could be used for reconnaissance or strike. Colonelcassad shares photos showing the movement of Geranium UAVs and missiles over Ukrainian territory yesterday, indicating continued aerial activity. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle in the Balagan district of the DNR, confirming continued RF drone effectiveness in tactical engagements and targeting UAF armor. Alex Parker Returns video claims that due to scaled-up "Geranium" (Shahed) production, these drones are now used directly on the front line in Sumy Oblast, indicating a tactical adaptation for short-range strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, indicates continued impact of UAF drone strikes on RF territory, including civilian infrastructure. Воин DV video shows aerial footage of a military vehicle, possibly a Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or artillery piece, firing. The video transitions to show the impact of the projectiles in a wooded area, causing explosions and smoke. The video also shows a ground-level view of an RF helicopter, likely a Ka-52 "Alligator," firing unguided rockets in a "vertical" or "pop-up" attack profile. MoD Russia video shows attack UAVs engaging AFU troops, confirming RF tactical drone use for kinetic effects. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a significant explosion and fire, confirming RF deep strike capabilities. Сливочный каприз [Photo message] Caption: 21.07.25 Красноармейск - Полтавка. (Satellite imagery and drone footage suggesting military operation in Ukraine). Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Кадры работы "Гарпии" (Aerial footage shows a settlement, an explosion, and subsequent fire/smoke, consistent with RF strike capability). MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and operational range. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows aftermath footage of a destroyed residential area, with casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the evening, the enemy struck the civilian infrastructure of the Putyvl community with drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 [Video message] Caption: 🫡 Работаем, ещё две Бабы-Яги пошли ко дну💥 (Video shows drone footage, likely from an RF drone, with telemetry data visible. The caption claims "two more Baba-Yagas went to the bottom," implying the destruction of two UAF heavy drones. This indicates continued RF counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ❤️ Работа дроноводов, снайперов, штурмовиков группы Аида СпН "Ахмат" МО РФ с мая по июль 2025 года. (Video shows drone footage of combat, including strikes and explosions, indicating active RF drone operations). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns [Video message] Caption: А быстро тут. В Покровске уже работают наши ДРГ, а хохлы вынуждены вступать в ближние стрелковые бои. Заход в город происходит через поселок Зверево. (Video shows views from a moving vehicle, with a person appearing to be a soldier exiting a pickup truck, suggesting RF DRG activity. The accompanying text directly claims RF DRG operations in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video of drone footage showing a "Kozak" vehicle, a "Paladin," "URAL-4320" trucks, and targeting of enemy positions, including a "DOT" and communication systems, implying effective RF drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno [Photo message] Caption: Координати уражених об'єктів. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad video shows "Harpy" drones engaging UAF infantry, confirming continued RF tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: RF has maintained temporary flight restrictions in response to UAV attacks, but these are being lifted, indicating efforts to restore normal civilian operations. RF is actively promoting a narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Mishustin also stated Russia is open to investments from "friendly countries" (ТАСС). TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces and a defense industry plant to Kyiv. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services. TASS reports Russia does not plan to withdraw from the OPCW despite the crisis in the organization, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Unconfirmed video from a RF milblogger claims a successful ambush by a RF DRG on a UAF vehicle in Pokrovsk, with occupants under fire and injuries visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Internal Security): An individual in military-style clothing, possibly a captured RF serviceman, is shown blindfolded and bound, suggesting an interrogation or capture scenario. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern (Kyiv, Chernihiv), Eastern (Kharkiv), Central (Poltava, Kremenсhuk), and now significantly Western (Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk) Ukraine demonstrates significant coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicate continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, further illustrating the scope of RF strikes on civilian and commercial infrastructure. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, confirming continued aviation strike capabilities on the frontline. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" indicates RF's self-assessment of its deep strike capability. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes and explosions over a city, and damage to a multi-story building, confirming continued and effective deep strike capabilities. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg, indicating continued and adaptive targeting of UAF defense industry. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы on Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued use of guided aviation munitions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial strike capability in the East. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, confirming a tactical drone strike capability. Alex Parker Returns video explicitly states the intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to scaled production, indicating a new tactical application of this munition type for short-range kinetic effects. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, confirming RF AD capabilities to intercept UAF drones over their territory. Воин DV video shows aerial footage of a military vehicle, possibly a Russian MLRS or artillery piece, firing. The video transitions to show the impact of the projectiles in a wooded area, causing explosions and smoke. The video also shows a ground-level view of an RF helicopter, likely a Ka-52 "Alligator," firing unguided rockets in a "vertical" or "pop-up" attack profile, indicating continued close air support capabilities. STERNENKO photo shows the underside of a Shahed UAV, likely from a downed drone, providing intelligence on enemy munitions and capabilities. MoD Russia video shows attack UAVs engaging AFU troops, confirming continued use of tactical drones for kinetic effects against UAF ground forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a significant explosion and fire, confirming RF deep strike capabilities. Сливочный каприз [Photo message] Caption: 21.07.25 Красноармейск - Полтавка. (Satellite imagery and drone footage suggesting military operation in Ukraine). Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Кадры работы "Гарпии" (Aerial footage shows a settlement, an explosion, and subsequent fire/smoke, consistent with RF strike capability). MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows aftermath footage of a destroyed residential area, with casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the evening, the enemy struck the civilian infrastructure of the Putyvl community with drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 [Video message] Caption: 🫡 Работаем, ещё две Бабы-Яги пошли ко дну💥 (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ❤️ Работа дроноводов, снайперов, штурмовиков группы Аида СпН "Ахмат" МО РФ с мая по июль 2025 года. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns [Video message] Caption: А быстро тут. В Покровске уже работают наши ДРГ, а хохлы вынуждены вступать в ближние стрелковые бои. Заход в город происходит через поселок Зверево. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Continued KAB Use on Sumy: RF demonstrated ability to strike Sumy with KABs, impacting residential areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV Threat to Eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk/Kharkiv: Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Counter-Offensive/Deep Strike into RF Territory: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video of drone footage showing a "Kozak" vehicle, a "Paladin," "URAL-4320" trucks, and targeting of enemy positions, including a "DOT" and communication systems, implying effective RF drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV [Video message] Caption: Очередное смачное ФАБирование по позициям ВСУ южнее Камышевахи. 11 гвардейская армия ВВС и ПВО продолжает оказывать непосредственную поддержку наступающим подразделениям 5 армии группировки войск "Восток". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Роботизированная платформа противника. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad video shows "Harpy" drones engaging UAF infantry, confirming continued RF tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RF continues to push Shahed UAVs into Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with 4 reportedly heading towards Pavlohrad, and new groups from Black Sea towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. This demonstrates an adaptive capability to launch from various vectors and spread out attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. The sarcastic claim about Vasylkiv airfield and references to "Geraniums flying in dozens," as well as claims of Kyiv being "without AD," are designed to create psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) aims to show tactical success. RF state media (TASS) is also leveraging internal incidents (UAV attacks on Moscow airports, train delays due to debris) to portray Ukraine as causing civilian disruption, justifying RF actions. "Воин DV" suggests Kyiv is creating a "background" for negotiations this week. Colonelcassad shows videos of claimed "Geranium" strikes in Kyiv. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) posted a photo of a massive explosion plume captioned "Beautiful," reinforcing the narrative of successful and destructive strikes. Alex Parker Returns attempts to mock UAF maritime capabilities by showing a small boat in relation to a claimed strike on a Black Sea platform. MoD Russia's video on Popov Yar further reinforces the narrative of successful ground operations and territorial gains, showcasing detailed accounts from servicemen. Воин DV's FPV drone video claiming successful neutralization of UAF equipment contributes to the narrative of RF tactical superiority and effective drone warfare. TASS reports RF MoD claims destruction of 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS, indicating adaptation to counter new UAF drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag, a move that can be leveraged by RF to show international acceptance despite sanctions. ТАСС reports on proposals for remote work during bad weather will be used to project government care. Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI, will be used to highlight US internal political dysfunction. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, will be used to project Russian diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды advertising truck bed caps and covers may be used as subtle internal propaganda for resilience/self-sufficiency. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video showing the restoration of a memorial will be used to project care for historical memory. ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on Azerbaijan-Russia relations and a potential meeting between Putin and Trump will be used to project diplomatic influence. ТАСС reports on migrant language requirements will be used to project internal policy control. Два майора video of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence agent detention in St. Petersburg, linked to an 80-drone attack plan, reinforces the narrative of successful counter-intelligence and Ukrainian malevolence. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption directly attempts to portray disunity and institutional decay within Ukraine. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, reinforcing the narrative of successful counter-terrorism efforts. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, will be used to support information operations. Kotsnews photo message at an airport with a child drinking from a fountain aims to project normalcy and stability, counteracting disruptive narratives. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics will be used for demoralization. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claiming Ukraine has run out of cemetery space will be used to spread panic and demoralization. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, indicating a continued effort to shape historical narratives and reinforce state control. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video on the influence of public actions on prisoner exchanges, highlights RF's intent to counter these efforts through propaganda. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment. Басурин о главном uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, reinforcing attempts to exploit US political developments. TASS reports a new bill providing free higher education for SVO participants, which will be used to boost domestic support and normalize military service. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF will use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's continued suppression of independent media and control of the information space. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, used to project a narrative of victimhood or unfairness in international contexts. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. TASS reports Ukraine's buying tickets to Gergiev's concert to disrupt it, aiming to portray Ukrainian actions negatively. Басурин о главном is propagating disinformation claiming that French media reports Ukrainian cemeteries have run out of space for new graves, indicating huge UAF losses, directly aiming to portray Ukrainian weakness. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with many graves, likely of soldiers, indicates RF military losses. TASS reporting on the death of Gennady Starunov, who communicated with Putin, will be used for internal propaganda to glorify sacrifice and normalize military losses. Fighterbomber shares promotional images and videos for survival knives, which is a commercial advertisement, not military intelligence. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple photos from Russia, claiming a municipal head banned "Russian fascism" and that Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Roma find the region tolerant, aiming to show internal Russian diversity and address extremism concerns internally. ТАСС reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant, indicating adaptive information warfare to use personal narratives for broader propaganda. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," used to stir regional tensions and justify RF actions. Операция Z reports a drone hit a residential house roof near Moscow, used to highlight perceived Ukrainian aggression against civilian targets. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, is a direct disinformation attempt to undermine Ukrainian defense capabilities and morale. Alex Parker Returns is also attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament (Aleksey Zhupanin) in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. ТАСС video and text featuring Konstantin Bogomolov accepting his "Honored Artist" title from Putin will be used to project normalcy, stability, and cultural support for the war. Басурин о главном photo, titled "New batch of imported imported scrap metal," showing damaged military equipment, is a direct propaganda attempt to highlight Ukrainian/Western equipment losses and demoralize UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 text announcing additional social support for combat veterans is internal propaganda aimed at boosting morale and supporting military personnel. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники photo claims prisoners are being forced to sign military contracts through beatings, used to highlight coercion and potential human rights abuses, for both internal and external audiences. Alex Parker Returns video shows interviews with WWII veterans, focusing on heroism, which is propaganda aimed at reinforcing national pride and justifying military actions. Два майора text "Криво рак выступает, да иначе не знает" is a direct propaganda attempt to ridicule Ukrainian leadership. Операция Z shares a video titled "It's Apocalypse!" depicting a large swarm of insects, likely locusts, which is an attempt to use natural phenomena to create a narrative of chaos or divine punishment for Ukraine. Kotsnews photo of a war cemetery can be used to emphasize Ukrainian losses and undermine morale. WarGonzo [Video message] Caption: ⚡️ЧВК Пегов⚡️Владимир Исаков: боевой путь начальника тыла через Афганистан и 90-е⚡️ (Propaganda focusing on military biography to project competence and inspire patriotism). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] and [Video message] claiming an armored assault on Malaya Tokmachka serves to project offensive success and overwhelming force. Alex Parker Returns [Photo message] Caption: Оказалось, что в городе Троицк в Челябинской области перед тем как запрещать русских в качестве экстремистской организации проводили рамадановские чтения. Русские в Челябинской области больше не нужны, зато нужны рамадонские чтения. И почему я не удивлен. (Highly inflammatory internal propaganda aimed at sowing ethnic discord and framing ethnic Russians as victims of internal policies). ASTRA [Photo message] Caption: VK заблокировал более десятка groups, in which Vologda Oblast Governor Georgy Filimonov was criticized. (Demonstrates RF censorship, aiming to control internal narratives and suppress critical voices). Kotsnews [Photo message] Caption: ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 91 percent подписчиков уверены, что наши металлурги сегодня куют нашу Победу. Как и вся страна, собственно. (Poll-based propaganda aiming to project widespread domestic support and unity for the war effort). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА [Video message] Caption: 💬Коновалов Алексей Валерьевич, 1973 г. р., 35 обрмп.💬 (Interview with a soldier criticizing RF leadership and morale, which, while a negative internal assessment, could be leveraged by RF to show "transparency" or be contained to niche audiences, or used by UAF for counter-propaganda). Рыбарь [Photo message] Caption: 📝В темпе вальса📝 (Graphic design or artwork, which might be part of an information campaign. Given the caption, it could imply rapid progress or a coordinated effort, which is a common propaganda theme). Alex Parker Returns [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺Лето в самом разгаре и мы решили порадовать вас. Среди наших подписчиков мы разыграем 24 патриотичних приза! (Promotional graphic for a giveaway with patriotic prizes, aiming to boost internal morale and support). ТАСС reports Russia provided OPCW with significant evidence of Kyiv using toxic chemicals, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization (This is an RF propaganda claim aimed at portraying Ukraine as using prohibited weapons, justifying RF actions, and undermining Ukraine's international standing). Воин DV reports "Anniversary of the defeat of the SS 'Galicia' Division. 81 years since the deserved retribution," which is a historical revisionist narrative aimed at justifying the conflict. Рыбарь video about Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and a "spiritual march" is a form of information warfare, aiming to destabilize or undermine the Armenian leadership by portraying it as engaged in illicit or manipulative activities related to religious institutions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора [Video message] Caption: Сообщают, что на кадрах - Покровск (Красноармейск, временно под контролем ВСУ). Снимают ВСУшники. По машине отрыла огонь наша ДРГ, утверждает противник. (RF milblogger disseminating video of claimed RF DRG ambush on UAF vehicle in Pokrovsk, aims to project RF tactical success and UAF vulnerability, reinforcing "Ukrainian weakness" narrative). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Армия России завершает разгром врага в Полтавке, прорываясь к Мирнограду! (RF milblogger claiming RF forces are completing the defeat of enemy in Poltavka and breaking through to Myrhorod, aims to project RF tactical success and advance. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС video shows memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk, indicating civilian casualties from UAF strikes in RF territory, reinforcing "RF victimhood" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber [Photo message] Caption: Я так понял, за компенсацией это мне к хохлам? )) (RF milblogger posts image of train delay compensation document with sarcastic comment, using civilian disruption for propaganda, reinforcing "RF victimhood" narrative). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы [Video message] Caption: 💍 Москвич сделал предложение девушке в ресторане с помощью бомжа (Irrelevant civilian event, but its inclusion in RF state media reflects an attempt to project normalcy and divert attention from military matters. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) RF Milblogger Claims UAF Taught US Army Drone Grenade Drops: Alex Parker Returns posts images claiming UAF taught the US Army to drop grenades from drones, used to mock US "slow adoption" of FPV drone tactics, but implicitly acknowledges UAF tactical innovation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milblogger video criticizing a Chechen individual and a Russian officer, seemingly for misrepresenting their combat roles or inciting unrest, suggests internal RF information operations aimed at countering perceived "traitors" or internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF milblogger video of two individuals on tour in Siberia and the Urals, expressing support for the Russian army. This is internal propaganda aimed at projecting normalcy and public support for the war. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF milblogger video featuring multiple individuals expressing gratitude, support, and solidarity for various causes (families, children, sports, religious beliefs, national identity), consistent with internal morale-boosting propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Ukrainian Weakness" Narrative (Exploitative & Manipulative): RF is immediately leveraging successful impacts in Kyiv and other regions, including metro disruptions and civilian casualties, to amplify narratives of Ukrainian AD ineffectiveness, even with sarcastic or exaggerated claims, to further psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones) aims to show tactical superiority. RF channels are also spreading claimed information from UAF POWs (e.g., Andrey Kachur) about "inhumane conditions" to sow discord and demoralize UAF personnel. Alex Parker Returns explicitly engages in disinformation by comparing International Mathematical Olympiad results to claim Ukrainian academic inferiority and cause "hysterics," demonstrating RF's willingness to exploit non-military achievements for propaganda. Alex Parker Returns video, claiming "Ukrainians tried to set up a car ambush with a drone," aims to portray UAF as deceptive and RF forces as skilled in countering them. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI, which, while not directly about Ukraine, reflects an attempt to exploit and amplify internal US political divisions, potentially to show Western weakness. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message claims the "Nazi regime is devouring itself" due to corruption in NABU, attempting to undermine Ukrainian institutions and portray internal weakness. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, potentially framing it as a sign of internal Ukrainian instability or consequence of conflict. Север.Реалии reports a war participant who killed a girl is being expelled from a university in St. Petersburg, which could be spun to imply moral decay within elements of Ukrainian society or challenges with reintegration of combatants. Старше Эдды's statement about "former Ukraine" and its military tactics further attempts to dehumanize and weaken Ukraine's image. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, directly promoting the narrative of immense UAF losses and weakness. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society and negatively influence prisoner exchange outcomes, explicitly confirming this RF propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows RF soldiers appealing for donations, inadvertently highlighting potential logistical weaknesses on their side, but framed as a necessary measure for victory. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, potentially used by RF to claim UAF intelligence weakness. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," which, while internal to RF, can be leveraged to show Ukraine as suppressing independent voices. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, which, while about sports, can be used to imply unfairness in broader international relations, aiming to sow disunity among Ukraine's partners. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured, highlighting internal RF vulnerabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, which, if implying capture, undermines RF strength. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries highlights RF's efforts to portray internal disunity in Ukraine due to high losses. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage contradicts the "stability" narrative, demonstrating internal friction within RF society. Alex Parker Returns posts photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicating a nuanced internal propaganda effort to demonstrate Russian internal social dynamics and potentially counter accusations of fascism from Ukraine, aiming to create disunity within Ukraine by highlighting perceived Russian moral superiority. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo mocking Ukrainian military commissariats attempts to portray internal friction and disunity within Ukraine regarding mobilization. Alex Parker Returns photo message claims a Member of Parliament's apartment in Kyiv was destroyed near the Artem factory, which is a direct attempt to sow social discord and dissatisfaction within Ukraine by highlighting perceived inequality among officials. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники photo claims prisoners are being forced to sign military contracts through beatings, aiming to highlight internal division and unethical practices within Ukraine's military. Операция Z shares a video titled "It's Apocalypse!" depicting a large swarm of insects, likely locusts, aiming to create a narrative of internal disunity by suggesting Ukraine is facing overwhelming natural challenges. Kotsnews photo of a war cemetery can be used to emphasize Ukrainian losses and undermine morale, contributing to the disunity narrative. Два майора [Text] Very interesting, how many ethnic Russian gangs come to Azerbaijan and other former USSR countries to organize illegal migration, traffic drugs, develop diasporas criminal influence on authorities, rape, kill and humiliate. Regarding the "absence" of nationality in criminals. (This text directly attempts to inflame ethnic tensions and highlight social problems, which can be used to foster internal disunity). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 [Video message] Caption: Цигани напали на бусік з ТЦКшниками на Волині. Ті давай тікати. (Video claims to show TCC bus fleeing an attack by Romani people, indicating internal social friction and disunity around mobilization, a key element of the "Disunity within Ukraine" narrative). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports G7 Ambassadors are alarmed by the NABU scandal and want a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers, highlighting potential internal political instability and disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ [Video message] Caption: Він просто почув дрон і довго не видєлувався, і поцілувавши в останнє путіна відправився на улюблений концерт (UAF video claims RF soldier committed suicide after drone detection, used to portray RF morale issues or desperation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС [Photo message] Caption: Российский нацист с позывным "Еж" и "яркой" биографией ликвидирован в Украине. Кирилл Унчук продержался на войне аж с 2014 года. "Лимоновец" присел на зону в РФ 2010 году, а после выхода из лагеря записался в "ополченцы" группы Стрелкова-Гиркина, воевал в Краматорске. (UAF source highlighting liquidation of RF nationalist, aims to portray RF as composed of "Nazis" and to sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO [Photo message] Caption: Відео засідки на українських воїнів у Покровську ви, певно, вже бачили. Публікувати його не буду. (Ukrainian milblogger referencing video of ambush on UAF soldiers in Pokrovsk, without publishing, implies the intent to mitigate the RF narrative of UAF vulnerability and maintain morale, thereby countering disunity). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF Exploitation of Alleged US "Slow Adoption" of Drone Tactics: Alex Parker Returns tries to use alleged "slow adoption" of drone tactics by the US Army to implicitly mock UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Victimhood" Narrative (Counter-UAF Attacks Justification): RF is actively reporting on UAF drone attacks on Moscow (e.g., 23 UAVs destroyed as per Sobyanin/MoD, via Два майора/TASS/ASTRA) and their "collateral damage" (e.g., train delays in Rostov, now confirmed for over 50 trains delayed with Kamianolomni station fire) to portray Russia as a victim and justify its ongoing military actions, aiming to garner domestic support and deflect international criticism. RF Transport Minister Nikitin's comments aim to reassure the public about airport safety despite the incidents. Mishustin's announcement of border crossing point repairs also feeds into a narrative of maintaining and improving national infrastructure despite external threats. The Belgorod governor's report of 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV also supports this narrative. The detention of a Moldovan national for espionage will likely increase vigilance and support for counter-intelligence measures. Voenkor KOTENOK provides video of the FSB detention of a Moldovan national with Russian passport in Ryazan, accused of being recruited by Kyiv intelligence services, serving to bolster the "RF Victimhood" and "Successful Counter-Intelligence" narratives. TASS confirms over 50 trains delayed due to UAV attack in Rostov, continuing to highlight disruption. TASS reports the detention of a man in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services, explicitly tying internal security successes to counter-Ukrainian efforts. Colonelcassad's video of the St. Petersburg detention amplifies this counter-intelligence narrative. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts between 08:30 and 12:00 MSK, supporting the victimhood narrative and RF AD effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles, which can be used to highlight UAF attacks impacting civilian travel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS, framing UAF as aggressive and RF as defensive. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast, directly supporting the victimhood narrative. Два майора video of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence agent detention in St. Petersburg, linked to an 80-drone attack plan, aims to justify RF counter-intelligence and portray Ukraine as aggressive. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter were introduced at Sheremetyevo airport. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days, serving to highlight the "victimhood" of RF civilian infrastructure and justify RF actions. ASTRA video on Kamianolomni railway station damage from UAV reinforces the victimhood narrative. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea, and Новости Москвы reports trains in Moscow are delayed due to weather, both contributing to the "RF Victimhood" narrative by highlighting disruptions impacting civilian life. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, further supporting the victimhood narrative and the government's response to it. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS providing detailed footage of damaged railway nodes in Likhaia and Kamianolomni is counter-narrative evidence against RF claims of minimal impact. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, indicating continued efforts to recover from UAF drone impacts. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed by more than 2 hours at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo as of 08:00 MSK on July 21, confirming the significant impact of UAF drone operations on RF civilian aviation. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station, Moscow due to rain, confirming continued weather impacts on RF internal transport. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, indicating a recovery effort for disrupted logistics. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. ТАСС reports Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, with restrictions on transactions since July 20, which highlights the continued impact of international sanctions on Russian financial services and civilian economic activity. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to halve the cost of food in airports if operations are restricted for more than 3 hours, indicating that the RF government is acknowledging and attempting to mitigate the logistical impact of drone attacks on civilian life, which suggests a degree of vulnerability. ТАСС reports that "Vkusno – i Tochka" and its cloud provider suffered hacker attacks, indicating continued cyber threats to Russian civilian infrastructure. ASTRA reports RZD plans to introduce delayed trains into the schedule by tomorrow morning, indicating ongoing efforts to recover from logistical disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports Russia provided OPCW with significant evidence of Kyiv using toxic chemicals, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization (This is an RF claim portraying Russia as a victim of Ukrainian chemical warfare, part of the victimhood narrative). TASS reports parts of a downed UAF UAV fell on a kindergarten and Ministry of Emergency Situations building in Berdyansk, aiming to portray Ukraine as attacking civilian targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions, implying a deliberate effort to control the "RF Victimhood" narrative by downplaying airport disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions between 16:00 and 22:00 MSK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down between 16:00 and 22:00 MSK. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора reports RF MoD claims 25 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) AV БогомаZ reports 8 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС video shows memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk, indicating civilian casualties from UAF strikes in RF territory, reinforcing "RF victimhood" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber [Photo message] Caption: Я так понял, за компенсацией это мне к хохлам? )) (RF milblogger posts image of train delay compensation document with sarcastic comment, using civilian disruption for propaganda, reinforcing "RF victimhood" narrative). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы [Video message] Caption: 💍 Москвич сделал предложение девушке в ресторане с помощью бомжа (Irrelevant civilian event, but its inclusion in RF state media reflects an attempt to project normalcy and divert attention from military matters. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Millerovo Airfield Attack: The attack on Millerovo military airfield will be leveraged by RF to further fuel the "RF Victimhood" narrative, portraying Ukraine as targeting military installations on Russian soil. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Saratov Airport Restrictions: Temporary flight restrictions at Saratov airport indicate a continued vulnerability of RF civilian air transport infrastructure to UAF deep strikes, impacting civilian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Chinese Support" Narrative (Diplomatic Leveraging): China's statement about "decisive measures" in response to EU sanctions on Russia will be leveraged by RF state media to demonstrate continued international support from a major power, counteracting Western efforts to isolate Russia. The upcoming EU/European Council visit to China on 24 JUL may be framed by RF as China maintaining dialogue despite Western pressure. TASS reports an Iranian official delivered a message to Putin, indicating continued diplomatic engagement with "friendly" states to project international support. TASS reports an expected round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine in Istanbul at the end of the current week, indicating a potential diplomatic avenue and a point of interest for international observers. Воин DV also reports the expected Istanbul negotiations, lending additional credibility to the claim. TASS reports a trilateral meeting (China, RF, Iran) on the Iranian nuclear program on July 22, showcasing Russia's continued diplomatic relevance and cooperation with non-Western powers. Hungary discussed with Serbia construction of an oil pipeline for Russian oil supplies, involving Russian representatives, confirming continued economic cooperation with non-Western partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts photo with caption about "American bulldozer of politics" and Trump's presidency, which, given the context, could be interpreted as a subtle message about Western political instability to international audiences. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag, a diplomatic success in sports. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russia will await official verdicts if Azerbaijan decides to sue Russia, indicating a diplomatic dispute with a close partner, potentially undermining RF's regional influence. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Moscow and Baku are in a difficult period but hopes it will pass, acknowledging a diplomatic challenge. ТАСС reports Peskov stated a meeting between Putin and Trump in Beijing in September is possible if Trump attends, signaling potential high-level diplomatic engagements. Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, which could be framed by RF as a diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ASTRA reports EU sanctions against an Iranian oil magnate for trade with Russia, indicating continued Western pressure on RF allies. ТАСС reports foreigners can visit Karabakh from July 23, potentially showcasing Russia's role in regional stability. РБК-Україна reports Kremlin is "for" holding a third round of negotiations with Ukraine, indicating a potential diplomatic opening. РБК-Україна reports Putin-Trump meeting in Beijing is possible, if Trump attends, emphasizing potential high-level diplomatic shifts. Colonelcassad reports Russia and Iran began joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea, indicating continued military-diplomatic cooperation. ТАСС reports the US will urge Europe to follow its example if it imposes 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, indicating an awareness of and response to potential Western economic pressure. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship Championship element, indicating RF's use of non-military events to highlight perceived international bias. Mash на Донбассе photo message from the Central Asian International Economic Forum in Dushanbe indicates Russia's continued diplomatic and economic engagement with Central Asian partners, serving to counter Western isolation efforts. РБК-Україна photo message highlights US call for harsh tariffs against RF partners, which RF will use to demonstrate Western efforts to isolate and harm Russia, aimed at influencing global opinion against such measures. TASS reports a round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine may take place in Istanbul on July 24-25, signaling a potential diplomatic development. TASS reports UK sanctions against 134 vessels linked to Russia are a neutral observation of international diplomatic developments. ТАСС reports that Ministers of Defense of Iran and Russia discussed military cooperation in Moscow, confirming continued military-diplomatic engagement. MoD Russia video and photos of joint military tactical exercises with Uzbekistan in Termez, Uzbekistan, demonstrate continued military-diplomatic cooperation and projection of influence. ТАСС reports Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, with restrictions on transactions since July 20, which highlights the continued impact of international sanctions on Russian financial services and civilian economic activity. ТАСС reports that large Russian banks have lowered ruble deposit rates, indicating a response to internal financial conditions that may impact international perceptions of RF economic stability. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor has started sending official warnings to Telegram channel owners in Russia for distributing information that violates Russian law, indicating increased internal regulatory action on information. ТАСС reports Russia does not plan to withdraw from the OPCW despite the crisis in the organization, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization (RF leverages its participation in international organizations to project normalcy and international legitimacy). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Putin-Trump Meeting Speculation: RF media continues to circulate discussions about a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, likely to project Russian diplomatic relevance and a perceived shift in US political landscape. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок photo message regarding attacks on the Armenian Apostolic Church by Armenian authorities, celebrated by Azerbaijan, is a form of information warfare attempting to destabilize Armenia and imply Russian support for Armenian interests. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports EU is developing a new package of sanctions against RF to pressure Kremlin into negotiations, citing French Foreign Minister. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Iran is not ready for direct negotiations with the US. This message, while from TASS, reflects Iran's diplomatic stance, and RF will likely leverage it to emphasize a united front against perceived Western pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Tactical Success" Narrative (Ground Operations, Claims of Breakthroughs): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar" through multi-directional assault, providing drone footage of damaged structures and ground movement. Leonid Sharov from the "Zapad" grouping claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. "Dnevnik Desantnika" shared video of soldiers training against aerial targets (possibly drones/balloons) and drone activity on Zaporizhzhia direction, also appealed for donations for drones and Starlink. Rogozin of "Dva Mayora" commented on the Zaporizhzhia front, but no specific operational details were provided. RF sources claim the establishment of a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) to support future operations into Sumy Oblast. This claim requires verification. Рыбарь provides a general summary for the morning of July 21st. TASS claims "liberation of Bila Hora" which "allows cutting an important supply route of the UAF in DNR" as stated by Pushilin. "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) provides visual confirmation of a destroyed settlement between Kostiantynivka and Bila Hora, indicating intense combat in this area. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. DNR People's Militia channel claims destruction of a UAF communication antenna and a "Baba Yaga" heavy drone. Rybar provides image/caption of new rockets for helicopters, indicating focus on aviation munition development. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from the 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment (Tsentr Group of Forces) giving details about the claimed liberation of Popov Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic, including aerial views with smoke plumes and descriptions of encountering enemy positions in basements and houses. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Colonelcassad claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video and caption indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction, showing military vehicles. Alex Parker Returns video shows vehicle moving on dirt road at twilight, with sparks and smoke in distance, suggesting an explosion or artillery impact, consistent with ongoing conflict. Mash na Donbashe video shows individuals, some in military attire, checking fishing nets, collecting fish, and handling packaged goods, possibly related to resource gathering or illicit activities during conflict. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in the vicinity of Belaya Gora in the Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a Russian soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons, aiming to demonstrate RF tactical success and material superiority. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, used to project military effectiveness. Воин DV video showing drone operators bombing "enemy holes," aiming to demonstrate tactical success. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions, confirming widespread ground engagements. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, indicating persistent RF ground pressure in border regions. Colonelcassad provides a video of a four-wheeled robotic platform with an antenna, suggesting ongoing development and potential deployment of UGVs for reconnaissance or delivery. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows drone reconnaissance and attacks on enemy vehicles and positions in Pokrovsk, indicating continued heavy fighting in this direction. Воин DV video showing a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform which was loaded with supplies, destroying a generator and possibly fuel cans, confirming RF's ability to interdict UGV logistics. Народная милиция ДНР channel claims to show "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts," is a direct propaganda message on tactical success. TASS provides video of claimed destruction of two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using aerial footage with crosshairs on moving vehicles. This is a significant tactical claim of eliminating retreating forces. Воин DV reports on the Southern-Donetsk direction, mentioning fighting near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and stating that the enemy is trying to regain previously lost positions, confirming ongoing ground engagements and RF defensive/counter-offensive actions. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming they broke UAF defenses in an area they couldn't approach for a year, implying a significant tactical breakthrough in the Southern Axis. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai (Donetsk People's Republic), indicating continued RF ground offensive capabilities and successful targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of engagements against enemy forces (identified by Russian flags) including targeting of personnel, positions, and a fuel/lubricant depot (Sklad PMM), confirming RF ground force deployments and UAF counter-tactics. STERNENKO video reports that a Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment is holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued localized ground engagements. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, supporting claims of continued RF ground pressure in the East. Сили оборони Півдня України video, featuring drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions (likely artillery), suggests ongoing UAF efforts to identify and target RF ground assets, implying continued RF ground presence and activity in the Southern operational zone. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ video shows drone footage of an FPV drone strike on a Russian military vehicle, possibly a Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or other artillery piece, resulting in an explosion and the vehicle being engulfed in smoke and fire. This indicates a successful UAF strike against enemy ground assets. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows drone footage of a strike against a Russian S-300 air defense system located in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in a large explosion. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video depicts a combat scenario with Russian flags and casualties in a wooded area, indicating RF ground operations are incurring losses. Colonelcassad video shows a wounded RF soldier being evacuated by tank crews under drone protection, confirming RF ground operations and the need for medical evacuation. MoD Russia video shows attack UAVs engaging AFU troops, confirming RF tactical drone use for kinetic effects. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Сквозь огонь врага: наша бронегруппа штурмует кирпичный завод в Малой Токмачке, наступая на Запорожском фронте. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] showing military vehicles advancing, one exploding near a vehicle, in open, grassy terrain, with background smoke plumes, suggesting active engagement and assault operations. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video message] Caption: ‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️ Наши ДРГ уже в Покровске! - кадры одной из засад на машину ВСУ (Video aims to demonstrate RF tactical success of sabotage-reconnaissance groups in conducting ambushes). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 [Video message] Caption: 🪂 Запорожское направление, р-он Каменского. (Video from RF source shows aftermath of search/raid, with items including medical tourniquet and precursor chemical '2-bromo-4'-methylpropiophenone CAS: 1451-82-7' found. Suggests possible clandestine lab or illicit activities. While not direct military operations, it could relate to counter-narcotics or criminal investigations that may have tangential links to destabilizing elements, or seizure of materials that could be diverted for other purposes. This could imply RF interdiction of illicit activities in occupied areas or along FLOT). Оперативний ЗСУ [Video message] Caption: 🔥Демонстрація ефективності наземних роботизованих комплексі1000 г.' (Demonstration of GUR ground robotic complexes in combat on Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions. Video aims to demonstrate the effectiveness of RF ground robotic complexes in combat, promoting a narrative of technological superiority). Военкор Котенок photos confirm activity in Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Otvazhnye" broke through to Pokrovsk and fighting is on the outskirts, stating the situation for UAF is critical. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) STERNENKO video shows UAF drone cutting deep logistics and creating kill zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a daily summary. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора [Photo message] Caption: Покровск (Красноармейск). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ✨ Фронтовая броня ✨ (Video shows two RF military personnel in front of a camouflaged vehicle, expressing gratitude to volunteers for providing "vehicle kits." This indicates continued RF reliance on civilian support for equipment, but also implies ongoing frontline operations and attempts to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Армия России завершает разгром врага в Полтавке, прорываясь к Мирнограду! (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ❤️ Работа дроноводов, снайперов, штурмовиков группы Аида СпН "Ахмат" МО РФ с мая по июль 2025 года. (Video shows drone footage of combat, including strikes and explosions against targets). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Засада нашей ДРГ на пикап ВСУ в Покровске (Video shows occupants under fire from inside a vehicle, damage to rear window, and blood present, indicating a direct engagement or ambush on a UAF pickup truck). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок photos with caption "Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction (right flank)/Druzhkovka direction" appear to be satellite or aerial imagery with overlaid red arrows, likely indicating RF activity or areas of interest near Stepanovka. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Военкор Котенок photo message "Sumy direction. Vinaigrette in Kondratovka" is a satellite or aerial image with overlays indicating activity in the Sumy region. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Операция Z reports RF DRG activity in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Роботизированная платформа противника. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• «Зона СВО» video of an individual speaking in Russian, addressing a controversial figure and criticizing their alleged lack of combat experience and slander, suggesting internal RF information operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Control Measures: RF has maintained temporary flight restrictions in response to UAV attacks, but these are being lifted, indicating efforts to restore normal civilian operations. RF is actively promoting a narrative of successful counter-UAV measures. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Mishustin also stated Russia is open to investments from "friendly countries" (ТАСС). TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces and a defense industry plant to Kyiv. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services. TASS reports Russia does not plan to withdraw from the OPCW despite the crisis in the organization, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Unconfirmed video from a RF milblogger claims a successful ambush by a RF DRG on a UAF vehicle in Pokrovsk, with occupants under fire and injuries visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Territory (Internal Security): An individual in military-style clothing, possibly a captured RF serviceman, is shown blindfolded and bound, suggesting an interrogation or capture scenario. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern (Kyiv, Chernihiv), Eastern (Kharkiv), Central (Poltava, Kremenсhuk), and now significantly Western (Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk) Ukraine demonstrates significant coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicate continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, further illustrating the scope of RF strikes on civilian and commercial infrastructure. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, confirming continued aviation strike capabilities on the frontline. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" indicates RF's self-assessment of its deep strike capability. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes and explosions over a city, and damage to a multi-story building, confirming continued and effective deep strike capabilities. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg, indicating continued and adaptive targeting of UAF defense industry. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы on Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued use of guided aviation munitions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial strike capability in the East. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle in the Balagan district of the DNR, confirming continued RF drone effectiveness in tactical engagements and targeting UAF armor. Alex Parker Returns video explicitly states the intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to scaled production, indicating a new tactical application of this munition type for short-range kinetic effects. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, confirming RF AD capabilities to intercept UAF drones over their territory. Воин DV video shows aerial footage of a military vehicle, possibly a Russian MLRS or artillery piece, firing. The video transitions to show the impact of the projectiles in a wooded area, causing explosions and smoke. The video also shows a ground-level view of an RF helicopter, likely a Ka-52 "Alligator," firing unguided rockets in a "vertical" or "pop-up" attack profile, indicating continued close air support capabilities. STERNENKO photo shows the underside of a Shahed UAV, likely from a downed drone, providing intelligence on enemy munitions and capabilities. MoD Russia video shows attack UAVs engaging AFU troops, confirming continued use of tactical drones for kinetic effects against UAF ground forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a significant explosion and fire, confirming RF deep strike capabilities. Сливочный каприз [Photo message] Caption: 21.07.25 Красноармейск - Полтавка. (Satellite imagery and drone footage suggesting military operation in Ukraine). Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Кадры работы "Гарпии" (Aerial footage shows a settlement, an explosion, and subsequent fire/smoke, consistent with RF strike capability). MoD Russia video shows Kub loitering munitions, detailing capabilities and warhead size. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows aftermath footage of a destroyed residential area, with casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the evening, the enemy struck the civilian infrastructure of the Putyvl community with drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 [Video message] Caption: 🫡 Работаем, ещё две Бабы-Яги пошли ко дну💥 (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Два майора [Video message] Caption: ❤️ Работа дроноводов, снайперов, штурмовиков группы Аида СпН "Ахмат" МО РФ с мая по июль 2025 года. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns [Video message] Caption: А быстро тут. В Покровске уже работают наши ДРГ, а хохлы вынуждены вступать в ближние стрелковые бои. Заход в город происходит через поселок Зверево. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Continued KAB Use on Sumy: RF demonstrated ability to strike Sumy with KABs, impacting residential areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV Threat to Eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk/Kharkiv: Continued use of strike UAVs against Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (Samarivskyi district), Poltava Oblast, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF Counter-Offensive/Deep Strike into RF Territory: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video of drone footage showing a "Kozak" vehicle, a "Paladin," "URAL-4320" trucks, and targeting of enemy positions, including a "DOT" and communication systems, implying effective RF drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV [Video message] Caption: Очередное смачное ФАБирование по позициям ВСУ южнее Камышевахи. 11 гвардейская армия ВВС и ПВО продолжает оказывать непосредственную поддержку наступающим подразделениям 5 армии группировки войск "Восток". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad [Video message] Caption: Роботизированная платформа противника. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad video shows "Harpy" drones engaging UAF infantry, confirming continued RF tactical drone use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: RF continues to push Shahed UAVs into Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with 4 reportedly heading towards Pavlohrad, and new groups from Black Sea towards Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. This demonstrates an adaptive capability to launch from various vectors and spread out attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. The sarcastic claim about Vasylkiv airfield and references to "Geraniums flying in dozens," as well as claims of Kyiv being "without AD," are designed to create psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones) further reinforce this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Victimhood: RF state media is aggressively leveraging UAF drone attacks on Russian territory (Moscow airport disruptions, Rostov train delays, Millerovo airfield attack, Saratov airport restrictions) to portray Russia as a victim of "Ukrainian aggression" and justify its own military actions, aiming to garner domestic support and deflect international criticism. This narrative is further amplified by TASS reporting on the memorial for a 5-year old boy in Kursk, ostensibly a civilian casualty from UAF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity/Corruption: RF sources are heavily promoting narratives of internal corruption (NABU scandal) and social friction (e.g., TCC and Romani population incident) within Ukraine to sow discord, undermine trust in Ukrainian institutions, and weaken public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability & Development: Propaganda focuses on internal stability, economic resilience (openness to "friendly investments," increased minimum wage proposals), and infrastructural development (airport modernization, border crossing repairs) to project an image of normalcy despite the conflict. This is sometimes demonstrated through seemingly irrelevant civilian events presented by state media to highlight "normalcy." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives (e.g., "Anniversary of the defeat of the SS 'Galicia' Division") to justify current actions and demonize Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Tactical Success": Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk) are being heavily publicized to project military momentum and success. Videos showcasing specific unit actions and drone operations reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical/Demoralizing: RF milbloggers frequently employ cynical or mocking language (e.g., "Krivoy Rog" quote, "zenith-missile spitz") to further demoralize Ukrainian audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Perceived US Weakness: RF milbloggers are attempting to exploit the perceived "slow adoption" of advanced drone tactics by the US military to indirectly mock UAF and show RF as technologically superior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Dissident Counter-Narrative: RF milbloggers are actively countering perceived "traitors" or individuals misrepresenting their combat roles, indicating internal information operations to control narratives and suppress dissent within their own ranks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Projection of Public Support: RF channels are actively publishing content designed to project widespread public support for the military and traditional values within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian (UAF) Counter-Narratives:
  • AD Effectiveness & Resilience: UAF authorities (Air Force, President Zelenskyy) emphasize the high rate of intercepted targets to demonstrate the effectiveness and resilience of Ukrainian AD, even while acknowledging resource strains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Terror & Civilian Targeting: UAF consistently highlights the civilian casualties and damage to residential areas (Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy) to expose Russia's "terrorist" nature and rally international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demand for Accountability: Zelenskyy's emphasis on legal architecture for a Special Tribunal against Russia signals a long-term information and legal offensive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Ukrainian officials prominently feature announcements of Western military aid (Patriot systems, Canadian tank repairs) and diplomatic engagements (Ramstein, G7 concerns) to demonstrate unwavering international backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production & Self-Sufficiency: Zelenskyy's focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production is a key message aimed at bolstering internal confidence and demonstrating long-term resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Innovation & Adaptability: Highlighting successes with ground robots and drone-based medical evacuation showcases UAF's ability to innovate and adapt on the battlefield. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Logistical Vulnerabilities: UAF emphasizes successful deep strikes on Russian railway logistics (Kamianolomni, Millerovo airfield) to show RF's vulnerability and to project UAF's offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Countering RF Morale Claims: UAF sources (e.g., Оперативний ЗСУ) attempt to highlight RF morale issues, as seen in the video claiming an RF soldier committed suicide upon drone detection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF High Morale: UAF is actively disseminating content showcasing high morale, resilience, and defiance of its personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV): The expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine (Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts) from Tu-95MS, concurrently with ongoing Shahed waves, and the re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv, indicates a continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. This new focus on far-western regions, which are critical logistical and industrial hubs for Western aid, represents a significant escalation in geographic scope and lethality. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation, increasing indiscriminate lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Ivanivka suggests an expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine beyond frontline areas. The sustained multi-vector threats to Kyiv with Shaheds, and new missile threats from Sumy axis, demonstrates an adaptive strategy to probe and exploit AD gaps across Ukrainian territory. Missile trajectory changes (e.g., from Kropyvnytskyi to Cherkasy/Vinnytsia and then further west) indicate a sophisticated attempt to confuse and evade UAF AD. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi and threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming this critical tactical adaptation of using hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms a tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Launches of KABs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) KAB Strikes on Sumy: RF has adapted to use KABs against Sumy, a city further from the immediate front line but within striking distance of glide bombs, extending their tactical air-to-ground reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV [Video message] Caption: Очередное смачное ФАБирование по позициям ВСУ южнее Камышевахи. 11 гвардейская армия ВВС и ПВО продолжает оказывать непосредственную поддержку наступающим подразделениям 5 армии группировки войск "Восток". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: The increase in the number of Shahed UAVs specifically targeting Kyiv (now ~10), the emergence of new Shahed groups in the Black Sea heading towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates an intent to increase saturation and potential kinetic effects on the capital, southern coastal areas, and eastern urban centers. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. UAV threat for Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast, indicating adaptive shift in drone vectors. UAV in Poltava Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a continued and potentially adapted air threat. Air Force reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued focus on eastern urban centers. Colonelcassad shares a photo of radar monitoring display with "Geranium" UAV and missile movements, illustrating RF's adaptive use of intelligence to coordinate attacks. Alex Parker Returns video explicitly states the intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to increased production, indicating a new tactical application of this munition type for short-range kinetic effects, directly supporting ground operations. STERNENKO photo shows the underside of a Shahed UAV, likely from a downed drone, providing intelligence on enemy munitions, and demonstrating an adaptive effort to analyze enemy capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the evening, the enemy struck the civilian infrastructure of the Putyvl community with drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Nikopolskyi district). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the south. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAV Threats to Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv: RF adapts its drone use to include specific districts (Samarivskyi, Pavlohrad, Kamianskyi) and continues to target Eastern regions and Poltava. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) BPLA reported on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, heading towards Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAVs that were on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts have turned around and are flying back towards Samar in a large group. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) BPLA reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north-east/north. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) NEW: Further Shahed activity now reported heading towards Pavlohrad from Zaporizhzhia Oblast and new groups inbound to Mykolaiv/Odesa, indicating RF's continued adaptive use of UAVs for widespread and sequential attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: The re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and the use of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates an escalation in the type of munitions used against the capital and far-western Ukraine, likely intended for rapid kinetic effect and to bypass layered AD. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming this critical escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive): RF has rapidly adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using the lifting of airport restrictions as a propaganda point to demonstrate RF resilience, while simultaneously intensifying demoralizing rhetoric regarding strikes on Ukraine, specifically claiming UAF AD is "gone." RF state media (TASS) is also disseminating video of claimed ground operations (Popov Yar, UAF equipment losses) and drone intercept claims (TASS, ASTRA) to demonstrate tactical successes. They are also actively reporting on the "collateral damage" of UAF drone attacks on Russian territory, such as train delays in Rostov, to shape domestic and international narratives. "Воин DV" suggests these strikes are intended to create a "background" for negotiations. RF milbloggers are adapting to exploit non-military events (e.g., International Math Olympiad results) for propaganda purposes against Ukraine. RF state media (Операция Z / Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) adapts its economic propaganda to claim US critical dependence on Russia for fertilizer, demonstrating a multi-domain approach to information warfare. TASS reports RF MoD claims destruction of 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS, indicating adaptation to counter new UAF drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag, representing an adaptation to maintain international presence despite sanctions. ТАСС reports MP Nilov proposed remote work for office employees during severe bad weather, showing an adaptation to address internal civilian issues. ТАСС reports Sergey Leonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, supports remote work during bad weather, reinforcing civilian adaptations to internal challenges. ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on various international relations topics suggest a centralized and coordinated diplomatic messaging strategy. ТАСС reports Pudov's statement on migrant language requirements indicates coordinated C2 in internal policy. Два майора video on the detention of a Ukrainian intelligence agent demonstrates effective C2 in internal counter-intelligence operations. Воин DV video showing drone operators bombing "enemy holes" demonstrates effective C2 for tactical drone employment. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, indicating coordinated ground operations C2. Colonelcassad's video showcasing a reconnaissance UGV can be used to project a narrative of technological advancement and successful tactical operations. Басурин о главном announces a new episode of "Basurin Answers!", a direct propaganda effort to disseminate RF narratives. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption demonstrates an adaptive information operation to target Ukrainian internal stability. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, indicating an adaptive exploitation of high-profile deaths for information operations. Kotsnews photo message at an airport with a child drinking from a fountain aims to project normalcy and stability, counteracting disruptions. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics suggests adaptive information warfare targeting UAF morale. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, an adaptive disinformation attempt. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, reflecting an adaptive internal propaganda effort to reinforce state control and historical narratives. Басурин о главном highlights a rating of "War Correspondents" channels, indicating an adaptive focus on maximizing information reach and influence. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the cancellation of a pro-Russian conductor's performance in Italy, indicating RF information operations are encountering resistance. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video titled "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment efforts and is an adaptive informational attack. Басурин о главом uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, demonstrating an adaptive exploitation of US political discourse. НгП раZVедка reporting on its Telegram channel's ranking indicates an adaptive focus on maximizing information reach and influence. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can leverage to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," demonstrating RF's continued adaptation in legal and information warfare against perceived internal threats. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship Championship element, indicating RF's adaptive use of non-military events to project victimhood or unfairness in international contexts. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued adaptation of demoralizing rhetoric. TASS reports on the situation in Russian airports following restrictions, showing adaptation to public messaging after drone incidents. TASS reports Ukraine's buying tickets to Gergiev's concert to disrupt it, aiming to portray Ukrainian actions negatively. Басурин о главном is adapting its disinformation by claiming Ukrainian cemeteries have run out of space, citing a French publication (Le Monde), attempting to create a veneer of credibility. TASS reports blocking Miramistin production, which could be spun as a response to perceived threats or as a demonstration of internal control. Alex Parker Returns posts photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicating an adaptive information operation to address internal perceptions and potentially deflect criticism. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant, indicating adaptive information warfare to use personal narratives for broader propaganda. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," showing adaptive disinformation to create regional instability narratives. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, directly targets Ukrainian morale and confidence in their defense capabilities and morale. Alex Parker Returns is also attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. Alex Parker Returns video shows interviews with WWII veterans, focusing on heroism, which is propaganda aimed at reinforcing national pride and military heritage. Операция Z shares a video titled "It's Apocalypse!" depicting a large swarm of insects, likely locusts, aiming to use natural phenomena to create a narrative of chaos or divine punishment for Ukraine. Kotsnews photo of a war cemetery can be used to emphasize Ukrainian losses and undermine morale, demonstrating an adaptive information warfare tactic. Alex Parker Returns [Photo message] Caption: Оказалось, что в городе Троицк в Челябинской области перед тем как запрещать русских в качестве экстремистской организации проводили рамадановские чтения. Русские в Челябинской области больше не нужны, зато нужны рамадонские чтения. И почему я не удивлен. (Highly inflammatory and manipulative propaganda to sow ethnic discord within Russia, an adaptation of info ops). ASTRA [Photo message] Caption: VK заблокировал более десятка groups, in which Vologda Oblast Governor Georgy Filimonov was criticized. (RF internal censorship as an adaptation in information control). Kotsnews [Photo message] Caption: ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 91 percent подписчиков уверены, что наши металлурги сегодня куют нашу Победу. Как и вся страна, собственно. (Poll-based propaganda as an adaptation to gauge and project public support). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА [Video message] Caption: 💬Коновалов Алексей Валерьевич, 1973 г. р., 35 обрмп.💬 (Content discussing RF internal morale issues, which can be an adaptive form of self-criticism or an attempt to manage expectations). Рыбарь [Photo message] Caption: 📝В темпе вальса📝 (Graphic design or artwork, likely an adaptive information campaign implying rapid progress or coordinated effort). Alex Parker Returns [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺Лето в самом разгаре и мы решили порадовать вас. Среди наших подписчиков мы разыграем 24 патриотичних приза! (Promotional graphic for a giveaway with patriotic prizes, adapting to maintain internal support). ТАСС reports Russia provided OPCW with significant evidence of Kyiv using toxic chemicals, as stated by Vladimir Tarabrin, RF Permanent Representative to the organization (RF adapts by using international organizations to spread claims against Ukraine). Воин DV reports "Anniversary of the defeat of the SS 'Galicia' Division. 81 years since the deserved retribution," which is an adaptive use of historical revisionism for propaganda. Рыбарь video about Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and a "spiritual march" is an adaptive information operation, using religious and political narratives to sow discord. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна [Photo message] Caption: ❗️Сибіга про візит Келлога: припинення атак показало, що Путін боїться Трампа (Ukrainian source leveraging a high-profile visit to interpret RF actions as influenced by US political figures, aiming to shape narrative on RF intentions). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Caption: 🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦Армия России завершает разгром врага в Полтавке, прорываясь к Мирнограду! (RF milblogger claiming RF forces are completing the defeat of enemy in Poltavka and breaking through to Myrhorod, aims to project RF tactical success and advance. This is an adaptive information operation to portray momentum). (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС video shows memorial for 5-year old boy in Kursk, indicating civilian casualties from UAF strikes in RF territory, reinforcing "RF victimhood" narrative and adapting to focus on emotional appeals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber [Photo message] Caption: Я так понял, за компенсацией это мне к хохлам? )) (RF milblogger posts image of train delay compensation document with sarcastic comment, adapting to use civilian disruption for propaganda, and reinforcing "RF victimhood" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы [Video message] Caption: 💍 Москвич сделал предложение девушке в ресторане с помощью бомжа (Irrelevant civilian event. Its inclusion in RF state media reflects an adaptive attempt to project normalcy and divert attention from military matters, particularly during periods of increased UAF drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) RF Misinformation on US Drone Tactics: Alex Parker Returns publishes photos claiming UAF taught the US Army how to drop grenades from drones, attempting to portray US military as slow to adapt, and implicitly mocking UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF milblogger video criticizing a Chechen individual and a Russian officer, seemingly for misrepresenting their combat roles or inciting unrest, suggests an adaptive internal RF information operation aimed at countering perceived "traitors" or internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF milblogger video of two individuals on tour in Siberia and the Urals, expressing support for the Russian army. This is internal propaganda aimed at projecting normalcy and public support for the war. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) RF milblogger video featuring multiple individuals expressing gratitude, support, and solidarity for various causes (families, children, sports, religious beliefs, national identity), consistent with adaptive internal morale-boosting propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is explicitly attempting to project internal disunity within Russian society by stating "Разрозненность общества у нас зашкаливает, многие ведут себя как рагули из соседней б/украины." This attempts to suggest a false equivalence of internal societal issues. Alex Parker Returns posts a video related to TCC (Ukrainian military recruitment centers) and Romani people, attempting to sow discord and exploit internal social issues within Ukraine for propaganda. Sever.Realii reports that "fake news" and "discreditation" cases are now being included in the list of terrorists and extremists, indicating RF's intent to suppress internal dissent and control information narratives. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video (from a Ukrainian source) shows an RF soldier expressing extreme xenophobic and aggressive sentiments towards people at a river, which if amplified by RF, could suggest internal disunity and brutalization of personnel, but if from a Ukrainian source is likely used to portray RF negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video, with Ukrainian commentary, compares current socio-economic conditions in Donetsk to 10 years prior, implying decline under Russian control and potentially highlighting disunity or discontent within occupied territories. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video showing a 'Donetsk philanthropist' replacing a basketball net, while seemingly benign, could be used by RF to counter narratives of decline and promote a sense of normalcy and investment. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption directly attempts to portray disunity and institutional decay within Ukraine. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, aiming to create internal panic and disunity regarding war losses. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society and negatively influence prisoner exchange outcomes, explicitly confirming this RF propaganda effort. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to depict disarray in UAF recruitment. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian intelligence claims that the largest Russian banks are preparing for a debt crisis, potentially aiming to portray internal RF disunity or instability. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," which, while internal to RF, can be leveraged to show Ukraine as suppressing independent voices. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, which, while about sports, can be used to imply unfairness in broader international relations, aiming to sow disunity among Ukraine's partners. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured, highlighting internal RF vulnerabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, which, if implying capture, creates a narrative of internal disunity. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries highlights RF's efforts to portray internal disunity in Ukraine due to high losses. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage contradicts the "stability" narrative, demonstrating internal friction within RF society. Alex Parker Returns posts photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicating a nuanced internal propaganda effort to demonstrate Russian internal social dynamics and potentially counter accusations of fascism from Ukraine, aiming to create disunity within Ukraine by highlighting perceived Russian moral superiority. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo mocking Ukrainian military commissariats attempts to portray internal friction and disunity within Ukraine regarding mobilization. Alex Parker Returns photo message claims a Member of Parliament's apartment in Kyiv was destroyed near the Artem factory, which is a direct attempt to sow social discord and dissatisfaction within Ukraine by highlighting perceived inequality among officials. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники photo claims prisoners are being forced to sign military contracts through beatings, aiming to highlight internal division and unethical practices within Ukraine's military. Операция Z shares a video titled "It's Apocalypse!" depicting a large swarm of insects, likely locusts, aiming to create a narrative of internal disunity by suggesting Ukraine is facing overwhelming natural challenges. Kotsnews photo of a war cemetery can be used to emphasize Ukrainian losses and undermine morale, contributing to the disunity narrative. Два майора [Text] Very interesting, how many ethnic Russian gangs come to Azerbaijan and other former USSR countries to organize illegal migration, traffic drugs, develop diasporas criminal influence on authorities, rape, kill and humiliate. Regarding the "absence" of nationality in criminals. (This text directly attempts to inflame ethnic tensions and highlight social problems, which can be used to foster internal disunity). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 [Video message] Caption: Цигани напали на бусік з ТЦКшниками на Волині. Ті давай тікати. (Video claims to show TCC bus fleeing an attack by Romani people, indicating internal social friction and disunity around mobilization, a key element of the "Disunity within Ukraine" narrative). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports G7 Ambassadors are alarmed by the NABU scandal and want a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers, highlighting potential internal political instability and disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ [Video message] Caption: Він просто почув дрон і довго не видєлувався, і поцілувавши в останнє путіна відправився на улюблений концерт (UAF video claims RF soldier committed suicide after drone detection, aims to highlight RF morale issues and disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС [Photo message] Caption: Российский нацист с позывным "Еж" и "яркой" биографией ликвидирован в Украине. Кирилл Унчук продержался на войне аж с 2014 года. "Лимоновец" присел на зону в РФ 2010 году, а после выхода из лагеря записался в "ополченцы" группы Стрелкова-Гиркина, воевал в Краматорске. (UAF source highlighting liquidation of RF nationalist, aims to portray RF as composed of "Nazis" and to sow disunity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO [Photo message] Caption: Відео засідки на українських воїнів у Покровську ви, певно, вже бачили. Публікувати його не буду. (Ukrainian milblogger referencing video of ambush on UAF soldiers in Pokrovsk, without publishing, implies the intent to mitigate the RF narrative of UAF vulnerability and maintain morale, thereby countering disunity). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF Exploitation of Alleged US "Slow Adoption" of Drone Tactics: Alex Parker Returns tries to use alleged "slow adoption" of drone tactics by the US Army to implicitly mock UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability and long-term development despite the conflict. State Duma proposal to increase debt threshold for travel ban likely aims to project internal stability and control. Mishustin's statement on openness to investments from "friendly countries" also supports this narrative. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 ("Новости Москвы") attempts to project a long-term economic planning image. TASS reporting on the VK Fest in Moscow aims to project normalcy and large-scale public events. New Red Wings flights announced also aim to project normalcy. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations, contributing to the narrative of returning normalcy and stability. TASS videos of Moscow flooding and flooded pedestrian tunnel, while demonstrating challenges, also serve to project a state that is addressing internal issues. Minlabor proposes a 20.7% increase in the minimum wage from January 2026 (TASS), aiming to project economic stability and improved living standards. Mash на Донбассе promoting real estate sales in Sochi (Agoi Grand Hotel) serves as a subtle internal propaganda message of normalcy and investment in civilian life, despite the ongoing conflict. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements, aiming to project effective internal governance. TASS reports an interview with Sergei Stepashin calling for salary caps in Russian football, indicating domestic societal issues are also part of RF information space, diverting from military topics. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow, aiming to project normalcy and stability. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo caption "СБОР КО ДНЮ ВДВ!" indicates internal morale-boosting and a focus on military holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Стрелков Игорь Иванович's channel posts about Igor Strelkov's arrest, portraying him as a "true patriot" and implying "enemies of Russia" are undermining the country, reflecting internal dissent and grievances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Полиция Хабаровского края video and photos, focusing on a radio broadcast and a "presentation slide," likely serve to project internal order, community engagement, and stability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports a court sentenced Darvol jewelry house owner Daria Spiridonova to 7 years for fraud, which aims to project internal rule of law and anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Hungary discussed with Serbia construction of an oil pipeline for Russian oil supplies, involving Russian representatives, aiming to demonstrate continued economic cooperation despite Western sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Committee supported a bill to expand benefits for "hero mothers," aiming to project support for traditional values and demographic growth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports MP Nilov proposed remote work for office employees during severe bad weather, framing it as a measure for citizen well-being. ТАСС reports Sergey Leonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, supports remote work during bad weather, supporting a narrative of government care for citizens. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video showing the restoration of a memorial can be used to project a narrative of Russian resilience and care for historical memory amidst conflict. Старше Эдды is advertising the manufacture and installation of truck bed caps and covers for pickup trucks, potentially signaling domestic production and a resilient economy. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete under FIDE flag, serving to project normalcy and international acceptance. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions, reinforcing the stability narrative. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov, which, if presented as part of an anti-corruption drive, can reinforce a narrative of internal stability and rule of law. Kotsnews photo message at an airport with a child drinking from a fountain aims to project normalcy and stability, thus influencing public sentiment positively regarding internal conditions. ТАСС reports Putin commented on the birth rate, indicating a focus on social stability. Новости Москвы reports American scientists created a universal mRNA vaccine for cancer, a non-military piece of information that can be used to project a focus on scientific advancement. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea, directly impacting public sentiment due to travel disruption. Новости Москвы reports trains in Moscow are delayed due to weather, further impacting public convenience. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, acknowledging and responding to public frustration with infrastructure issues. ASTRA reports Russia plans to introduce fines for cryptocurrency payments starting in 2026, which may impact public sentiment among cryptocurrency users. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, aiming to project historical continuity and state strength. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, aiming to project a return to normalcy and stable operations. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed by more than 2 hours at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo as of 08:00 MSK on July 21, while showing disruption, also implies RF is managing the situation and expects a return to normalcy soon. TASS reports a gas explosion and fire in a multi-story building in Novorossiysk, indicating an internal incident with potential for civilian casualties and emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Putin assigned the title of Honored Artist to Konstantin Bogomolov, a civilian development aimed at highlighting cultural contributions and normalcy. TASS reports a new bill provides free higher education for SVO participants, reinforcing social support and normalcy. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station due to rain, confirming public inconvenience. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, aiming to mitigate public frustration regarding transportation disruptions. Новости Москвы photo message "Raise demography by 23:00" alongside a photo of a married couple, indicates RF's continued emphasis on demographic growth and traditional family values, which is likely to be received positively by conservative segments of the public. Север.Реалии reports on a past famine in the Volga region and Urals, and people feeling "unneeded," which could evoke negative public sentiment and historical grievances. Два майора photo message "Extremely necessary project in the conditions of the SVO" with an image of ski trails, might elicit positive public sentiment by projecting normalcy and internal development, potentially diverting resources from military logistics, or an attempt to use civilian infrastructure as a subtle propaganda tool during wartime. TASS reports FAS instructed its regional offices to increase price control for drinking water and food in airports, aiming to project government care for citizens amidst disruptions. TASS blocking Miramistin production, while impacting civilian supply, can be framed as the state exercising control for stability or security. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, indicating RF's intent to reinforce control over information. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage contradicts the "stability" narrative, demonstrating internal friction within RF society. Colonelcassad's satirical posts about Tikhanovsky aim to influence domestic public opinion by discrediting opposition figures. TASS reports the military court will begin hearing the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case on August 4, used to project internal stability and commitment to justice. TASS reports on the death of actress Tatiana Egorova, which is a neutral civilian news item. ТАСС photo confirms water standing in some areas of Moscow after prolonged downpour, specifically Nagornaya area, further indicating adverse weather impacting civilian infrastructure, but can be framed as the state addressing issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 text announcing additional social support for combat veterans will be used to project government care and encourage military service. TASS reports that Volodin has instructed to develop amendments to legislation on prohibiting the purchase of military uniforms abroad, aiming to project self-sufficiency and strength in domestic military production. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to ban feeding stray animals near apartment buildings, which can be used to project a government focused on public order and civilian welfare. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to halve the cost of food in airports if operations are restricted for more than 3 hours, used to project government responsiveness to civilian inconvenience. ТАСС reports that large Russian banks has lowered ruble deposit rates, which could impact public sentiment regarding financial stability. ТАСС reports that "Vkusno – i Tochka" and its cloud provider suffered hacker attacks, but have resumed normal operations, aiming to project resilience and stability in civilian infrastructure. ASTRA reports a gas explosion in Novorossiysk, which will test the narrative of internal stability but also provides an opportunity to project effective emergency response. ASTRA reports RZD plans to introduce delayed trains into the schedule by tomorrow morning, which aims to project efficient recovery of infrastructure. Kotsnews photo of a war cemetery is likely to be used for internal propaganda to normalize losses and glorify sacrifice. Alex Parker Returns [Photo message] Caption: Оказалось, что в городе Троицк в Челябинской области перед тем как запрещать русских в качестве экстремистской организации проводили рамадановские чтения. Русские в Челябинской области больше не нужны, зато нужны рамадонские чтения. И почему я не удивлен. (This inflammatory content, while disruptive, could be used by RF to frame itself as addressing social issues, albeit with a nationalist slant). ASTRA [Photo message] Caption: VK заблокировал более десятка groups, in which Vologda Oblast Governor Georgy Filimonov was criticized. (This shows RF's focus on maintaining internal political stability by suppressing dissent). ТАСС reports State Duma deputies may recommend creating centers for reproductive health for adolescents and family/reproduction health centers, used to project government care for the population. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: В ходе ежегодного Фестиваля народного творчества "Беноевская весна-2025" в селении Пачу, в школе хафизов имени Ташу-Хаджи Саясановского, состоялся 6-й республиканский конкурс чтецов Священного Корана. (This video projects internal stability and cultural/religious harmony within Chechnya, beneficial to RF's overall narrative of domestic stability). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports that Sheremetyevo Airport has labeled as "fakes" videos showing crowds of passengers in terminals after recent disruptions, implying a deliberate effort to manage public perception of disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports for the first time in a long time, he used a Russian Railways train. This implies that train travel is typically not his primary mode, possibly due to prior disruptions or operational concerns, but his current use suggests a return to normalcy or a functional alternative for some travel needs within RF. This is a subtle indicator of logistical shifts or improvements in railway reliability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы [Video message] Caption: 💍 Москвич сделал предложение девушке в ресторане с помощью бомжа (Irrelevant civilian event, but its inclusion in RF state media reflects an adaptive attempt to project normalcy and divert attention from military matters. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Airport Closures/Restrictions in Rostov/Saratov: RF internal media reporting on temporary flight restrictions due to UAV attacks at Millerovo and Saratov airports indicates continued disruption and attempts to manage public perception of these events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports new accusations against former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov include bribery related to a bathhouse and boiler room for his ex-wife, valued at almost 56 million rubles. This reflects continued internal anti-corruption efforts within RF, aiming to project rule of law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture (Strained but Effective): UAF AD remains fully engaged and highly effective, with 224 targets destroyed and 203 UAVs suppressed, demonstrating a robust response to the multi-domain RF aerial assault. This, however, comes at a critical cost to interceptor stockpiles, as highlighted by the urgency for new Patriot systems and the $6 billion funding gap. The engagement across a vast geographic area, including successful interceptions over Chernivtsi and Kyiv, confirms nationwide coverage and readiness. The deployment of mobile AD units (ZU-23 on trucks) in Mykolaiv demonstrates tactical adaptation and continued readiness for drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces Posture (Defensive & Adaptive, localized offensive capability): UAF ground forces are primarily in a defensive posture, particularly in the Eastern and Southern axes, repelling multiple RF assaults (23 on Kursk/Sumy axis). Training activities (61st OMBr tank crews) indicate continued efforts to maintain combat readiness. The confirmed capture of 5 RF personnel in Kursk Oblast (if verified) indicates successful tactical engagements by UAF forces on the border. GUR's claimed use of ground robots and drone operators conducting deep logistics interdiction demonstrates an adaptive and innovative posture, using advanced technologies for tactical effect. The deployment of the Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back RF advances in Donetsk Oblast indicates continued localized ground resistance and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade reports liquidation of 33 RF personnel via drone operations, indicating an active offensive posture at the tactical level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Security Readiness (Active Counter-Intelligence): The large-scale SBU/OGP operation against NABU employees, including the detention of a senior detective suspected of aiding RF, indicates a high state of internal security readiness and a proactive stance against Russian influence. Ukrainian police also helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Overall Readiness (Sustained by External Aid and Domestic Focus): Ukraine's overall military readiness is sustained by a combination of continued international military aid (e.g., Patriot systems, Canadian tank repairs), as well as a critical focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production, as articulated by President Zelenskyy. The ongoing discussions for additional NATO funding (5% increase) also contribute to long-term readiness planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) High Morale and Defiance: Ukrainian military personnel exhibit high morale and defiance, as evidenced by motivational videos from various units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Tactical Successes:
  • High AD Interception Rate: UAF AD successfully intercepted or suppressed 224 aerial targets by fire and 203 UAVs through REB, demonstrating high effectiveness against a massive and complex RF aerial assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Strike on RF Logistics: Successful UAF UAV strike on Kamianolomni railway station in Rostov Oblast, causing significant disruption to RF rail logistics (over 50 trains delayed). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeted RF AD Destruction: Successful UAF drone strike on an RF S-400 (92N6E MLRS) system in Belgorod Oblast, a high-value asset, significantly degrading RF AD capabilities in that sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Innovative Tactical Deployments: Confirmed deployment of UAF GUR ground robots in combat (Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions) and successful use of ground drones for medical evacuation (Khartia brigade), indicating significant advancements in UAF tactical innovation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Deep Logistics Interdiction: UAF drones demonstrating capability to cut deep RF logistics (30-40km behind lines) and create kill zones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-battery Success: UAF 44th Artillery Brigade successfully targeted and destroyed an RF 2A65 Msta-B howitzer in the Southern Axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Losses: UAF 63rd Brigade claiming extensive RF personnel losses through drone strikes ("industrial scale liquidation"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Personnel Captured (Kursk Oblast): Unverified but plausible claim of 5 RF personnel captured by UAF 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Liquidation of RF Sabotage Groups: DeepState reports liquidation of RF sabotage groups in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cyber Security Success: Ukrainian police also helped neutralize pro-Russian hacker network NoName057(16). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repatriation: Ukraine returned a teenager forcibly taken from Mariupol to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kinetic Impact on RF Military Airfield: Successful drone attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Setbacks:
  • Widespread Civilian Casualties and Damage: RF deep strikes resulted in 13 confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sloviansk, and Kherson. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure (residential buildings, kindergartens, commercial properties) was confirmed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • AD Munitions Expenditure: The high rate of AD engagements, while successful, indicates a critical expenditure of interceptor munitions, contributing to an urgent $6 billion procurement gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued RF Aerial Penetration: Despite high interception rates, RF missiles and drones continue to penetrate UAF AD, causing kinetic effects, including Kinzhal impacts on Kyiv and Western Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unconfirmed RF Ground Advances: RF claims of opening a new front in Kharkiv, achieving breakthroughs in Malaya Tokmachka, and capturing Bila Hora, if verified, would represent significant tactical setbacks for UAF. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for breakthroughs, MEDIUM for new front)
  • Increased Risk to Western Aid Corridors: RF's expanded deep strike targeting of Western Ukraine directly threatens key logistics corridors for international military aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Putyvl Community Drone Strike: Civilian infrastructure in Putyvl community (Sumy Oblast) struck by RF drones, indicating continued RF targeting of border communities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Drone Losses: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones (Leleky, Hory, Sharks, FlyEye), indicating a potential setback for UAF ISR capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Friction (Mobilization): Unconfirmed report of "Gypsies attacking a TCC bus" in Volyn, if accurate, points to significant social friction related to mobilization efforts and potential internal discipline issues. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RF DRG Ambush in Pokrovsk: RF milbloggers claim a successful ambush by a RF DRG on a UAF vehicle in Pokrovsk, resulting in casualties. Colonelcassad video confirms an ambush by RF DRG on a UAF pickup truck in Pokrovsk, with visible injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • KAB Strike on Sumy: RF strike on Sumy with KABs resulted in damage to a residential building and civilian injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of UAF Robotic Platform: Colonelcassad video shows a UAF robotic platform targeted and likely destroyed by an RF drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Critical Air Defense Munitions: The most urgent requirement is the accelerated resupply of AD interceptors, especially for ballistic and hypersonic missile defense. The reported $6 billion procurement gap for the current year highlights this critical constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drones and Counter-Drone Capabilities: There is an ongoing and urgent requirement for more drones (both FPV and reconnaissance) for UAF units, evidenced by crowdfunding efforts and official statements. Complementary REB (Radio-Electronic Warfare) means are also critical for combat missions and logistics safety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Production Capabilities: President Zelenskyy's directive to increase Ukraine's share of domestic weapons production to 50% within six months indicates a strategic shift towards self-sufficiency and a recognition of current reliance on external supply. French companies' readiness to start drone production in Ukraine is a positive step but requires time and resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Financial Support: Continued and increased international financial support is vital, especially for AD systems (Patriot) and the maintenance of armored vehicles (Leopard 2 tanks). NATO's potential additional funding (5% of defense goal) for Ukraine's army, particularly for military motivation and drones, is a significant future requirement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistical Security: The increased targeting of Western Ukraine implies a growing need for enhanced security and hardening of logistical corridors to ensure the uninterrupted flow of Western aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel Motivation/Well-being: Zelenskyy's emphasis on financial motivation for the Ukrainian army suggests a recognized need to boost morale and retention, which is a resource requirement in terms of budgetary allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Resources for Defense Procurement: The stated need for $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year is a direct and pressing financial constraint. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aid for Civilian Casualties: The recent KAB strike on Sumy, causing civilian injuries and property damage, highlights the ongoing need for humanitarian aid and resources for civilian recovery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• Russian Federation (RF) Narratives:
  • Overwhelming Force & Ukrainian Weakness: RF channels (milbloggers, state media) are actively amplifying the scale and depth of their aerial attacks, particularly the Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv, to create a sense of overwhelming force and to demoralize the Ukrainian population by claiming AD ineffectiveness or collapse. Claims of UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley, M777, UAF robotic platform) and drone losses ("Baba Yaga" drones) further reinforce this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Victimhood: RF state media is aggressively leveraging UAF drone attacks on Russian territory (Moscow airport disruptions, Rostov train delays, Millerovo airfield attack, Saratov airport restrictions) to portray Russia as a victim of "Ukrainian aggression" and justify its own military actions, aiming to garner domestic support and deflect international criticism. This narrative is further amplified by TASS reporting on the memorial for a 5-year old boy in Kursk, ostensibly a civilian casualty from UAF strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Disunity/Corruption: RF sources are heavily promoting narratives of internal corruption (NABU scandal) and social friction (e.g., TCC and Romani population incident) within Ukraine to sow discord, undermine trust in Ukrainian institutions, and weaken public morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Stability & Development: Propaganda focuses on internal stability, economic resilience (openness to "friendly investments," increased minimum wage proposals), and infrastructural development (airport modernization, border crossing repairs) to project an image of normalcy despite the conflict. This is sometimes demonstrated through seemingly irrelevant civilian events presented by state media to highlight "normalcy." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Historical Revisionism: Continued use of historical narratives (e.g., "Anniversary of the defeat of the SS 'Galicia' Division") to justify current actions and demonize Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Tactical Success": Claims of ground advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka) and effective DRG ambushes in contested areas (Pokrovsk) are being heavily publicized to project military momentum and success. Videos showcasing specific unit actions and drone operations reinforce this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Cynical/Demoralizing: RF milbloggers frequently employ cynical or mocking language (e.g., "Krivoy Rog" quote, "zenith-missile spitz") to further demoralize Ukrainian audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Perceived US Weakness: RF milbloggers are attempting to exploit the perceived "slow adoption" of advanced drone tactics by the US military to indirectly mock UAF and show RF as technologically superior. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal RF Dissident Counter-Narrative: RF milbloggers are actively countering perceived "traitors" or individuals misrepresenting their combat roles, indicating internal information operations to control narratives and suppress dissent within their own ranks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Projection of Public Support: RF channels are actively publishing content designed to project widespread public support for the military and traditional values within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian (UAF) Counter-Narratives:
  • AD Effectiveness & Resilience: UAF authorities (Air Force, President Zelenskyy) emphasize the high rate of intercepted targets to demonstrate the effectiveness and resilience of Ukrainian AD, even while acknowledging resource strains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Terror & Civilian Targeting: UAF consistently highlights the civilian casualties and damage to residential areas (Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy) to expose Russia's "terrorist" nature and rally international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Demand for Accountability: Zelenskyy's emphasis on legal architecture for a Special Tribunal against Russia signals a long-term information and legal offensive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Ukrainian officials prominently feature announcements of Western military aid (Patriot systems, Canadian tank repairs) and diplomatic engagements (Ramstein, G7 concerns) to demonstrate unwavering international backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Domestic Production & Self-Sufficiency: Zelenskyy's focus on increasing domestic weapons and drone production is a key message aimed at bolstering internal confidence and demonstrating long-term resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF Innovation & Adaptability: Highlighting successes with ground robots and drone-based medical evacuation showcases UAF's ability to innovate and adapt on the battlefield. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Logistical Vulnerabilities: UAF emphasizes successful deep strikes on Russian railway logistics (Kamianolomni, Millerovo airfield) to show RF's vulnerability and to project UAF's offensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Countering RF Morale Claims: UAF sources (e.g., Оперативний ЗСУ) attempt to highlight RF morale issues, as seen in the video claiming an RF soldier committed suicide upon drone detection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF High Morale: UAF is actively disseminating content showcasing high morale, resilience, and defiance of its personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine:
  • Resilience & Determination: Despite widespread civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes, public and official sentiment remains determined, with focus on recovery, continued defense, and securing more aid. The prompt response of emergency services and public reporting contribute to maintaining order and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over Mobilization: The unverified report of a "TCC bus attack" in Volyn, if confirmed, points to growing social friction and potential negative public sentiment regarding mobilization efforts. This warrants close monitoring. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Internal Security & Trust: The NABU scandal and the G7 ambassadors' expressed concern could negatively impact public trust in governmental institutions and internal stability, even with proactive SBU counter-intelligence measures. Managing this narrative internally is crucial. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Motivation for Military Personnel: Zelenskyy's emphasis on additional financial motivation for the army suggests that morale among military personnel, while strong, requires continued attention and support beyond basic needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High Morale: Visual evidence supports high morale among Ukrainian military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of KAB Strikes: KAB strikes on urban centers like Sumy will continue to cause fear and distress among the civilian population, increasing humanitarian needs and potentially influencing public sentiment regarding the conflict's safety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Controlled Narrative: Public sentiment is heavily influenced by state-controlled media, which emphasizes RF "victories," "precision strikes," and the successful repulsion of Ukrainian attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Impact of UAV Attacks: Despite official denials, the widespread reports of airport closures, train delays, and internal incidents (Rostov railway fire, Millerovo airfield attack, Saratov airport restrictions, Moscow flooding) from UAF drone attacks likely cause inconvenience and some public frustration, even if managed by state media. The TASS report on the memorial for a 5-year old boy in Kursk, ostensibly a civilian casualty from UAF strikes, aims to generate sympathy and solidify support against perceived Ukrainian aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Mixed Morale Signals (Military): While state media projects high morale, the interview with a 35th Marine Brigade soldier criticizing leadership and morale issues suggests underlying discontent within some military units. This is a significant indicator of potential vulnerabilities if such sentiments become widespread. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Frictions: The public backlash in Sevastopol against Kadyrov's portrait and the VK blocking of groups criticizing a regional governor indicate underlying social and political frictions that the RF government actively attempts to suppress. The inflammatory propaganda about "Russians being banned" in Chelyabinsk suggests an attempt to exploit and redirect these internal frictions along ethnic lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Normalization of Losses: The continued reporting on military casualties, framed within narratives of heroism and sacrifice, suggests an ongoing effort to normalize war losses for the Russian public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Support for Ukraine (Strong, but Resource-Dependent):
  • Continued Military Aid: The 29th Ramstein meeting has yielded commitments for 5 Patriot systems (Germany/US), continued Canadian financial support for tank maintenance, and a general agreement for hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds and drone funding. The UK is launching a 50-day campaign to arm Ukraine. Norway is also ready to provide additional AD funding. This indicates robust, but not always immediate, material support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine is actively engaging in international diplomacy (Zelenskyy's address to diplomats, planned embassy openings, new cooperation with Benelux countries). High-level visits (EU/European Council to China, G7 Ambassadors) are noted as relevant to Ukraine's position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Negotiation Developments: Zelenskyy's confirmation of new negotiations with Russia in Istanbul on 23/24 July, potentially including a prisoner exchange, indicates active diplomatic efforts to address immediate conflict issues, with Turkish mediation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Accountability Focus: Ukraine's continued push for a Special Tribunal against Russia reinforces its diplomatic objective of holding RF accountable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Concerns over NABU Scandal: The G7 Ambassadors expressing alarm over the NABU scandal and requesting a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers indicates international concern over internal governance and rule of law in Ukraine, which could impact future aid if not addressed effectively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Support for Russia (Limited, but Stable):
  • Iran Military Cooperation: Continued military cooperation between Iran and Russia (defense ministers meeting in Moscow) and planned trilateral meeting on Iranian nuclear program indicate a stable, albeit limited, network of allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Economic Cooperation: Hungary's discussions with Serbia on an oil pipeline for Russian oil indicate continued economic cooperation with some European partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China's Stance: China's statement about "decisive measures" in response to EU sanctions on Russia can be interpreted by RF as continued diplomatic backing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Dialogue (Selective): While largely isolated by the West, Russia maintains diplomatic engagement with "friendly countries" and is willing to engage in negotiations with Ukraine (Istanbul talks). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resilience to Sanctions: Russia is managing the impact of sanctions (e.g., UnionPay card issues) and adapting to external economic pressure, as evidenced by internal financial adjustments. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Speculation on Putin-Trump Meeting: Continued speculation in RF media about a Putin-Trump meeting in Beijing indicates RF's intent to project future high-level diplomatic relevance and potential shifts in international dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NEW: Iran's Stance on US Negotiations: Iran's statement to TASS that it is "not ready for direct negotiations with the US" further reinforces the narrative of a united front against perceived Western pressure, which RF can leverage diplomatically. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Multi-Domain Deep Strike Campaign: RF will continue its high-volume, multi-vector aerial assault using Shaheds, cruise missiles (from Tu-95MS), and ballistic missiles, including Kinzhals, against critical infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on Kyiv and Western logistics hubs. The aim is to deplete UAF AD, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure. New Shahed groups are likely to continue targeting Southern Oblasts, including Mykolaiv and Odesa, and further probes into Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Continued Ground Attrition in Donbas: RF will maintain relentless, attritional ground assaults across the Eastern axis (Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka), likely attempting to leverage any perceived advances (Popov Yar, Bila Hora, Poltavka) to achieve tactical breakthroughs, even if localized. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Probing and Shaping Operations on Northern/Southern Axes: RF will continue reconnaissance-in-force, localized ground assaults, and drone/KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, and along the Zaporizhzhia front (Malaya Tokmachka, Kamyanske), to fix UAF reserves, identify weaknesses, and create conditions for potential larger-scale offensives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intensified Information Operations: RF will continue to heavily propagandize its claimed successes (ground gains, AD effectiveness, Kinzhal strikes), exploit internal Ukrainian issues (NABU scandal, mobilization friction), and frame itself as a victim of "Ukrainian aggression" to manage domestic sentiment and influence international perceptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Negotiation as Information Warfare: RF will likely use the upcoming Istanbul negotiations primarily as an information operation to signal a willingness for dialogue while continuing kinetic operations, potentially aiming to portray Ukraine as unwilling or unreasonable if talks falter. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Counter-UAV Measures in RF Territory: RF will continue to attempt to intercept UAF drones over its territory, with reported success rates for smaller UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• Coordinated Multi-Front Offensive with Strategic Deep Strike (CATACLYSMIC): RF conducts a synchronized, large-scale ground offensive on multiple axes, most dangerously combining a major thrust into Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts (committing operational reserves) with an exploitation of the claimed breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This offensive would be coordinated with a sustained, exceptionally high-volume multi-domain deep strike campaign designed to fully deplete UAF AD and interdict all major Western aid logistics corridors, aiming for a rapid collapse of UAF defensive lines on multiple, non-contiguous fronts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Chemical/Biological Weapon Use (ESCALATORY, LOW PROBABILITY): Although low probability, the RF claim of Ukraine using toxic chemicals to the OPCW could be a flag for a false flag operation, where RF could use such weapons and blame Ukraine, leading to a massive escalation. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Assassination/Disruption of UAF Leadership (HYBRID): Exploiting internal security concerns (NABU scandal) or leveraging DRG capabilities, RF conducts a high-profile assassination or significant disruption operation against key UAF military or political leadership (e.g., General Shapovalov, President Zelenskyy) to sow chaos and cripple C2. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Targeted Strike on High-Value Military Airfields/Bases in Ukraine (ESCALATORY): Given the confirmed UAF deep strike on Millerovo, RF may retaliate with a concentrated, high-precision strike using Kinzhals and cruise missiles against a key UAF military airfield or command center in Ukraine, beyond simply a "defense industrial complex" target, aiming to significantly degrade UAF air or C2 capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours):
  • Aerial Strikes: High probability of continued, albeit potentially smaller, RF missile and drone strikes. UAF AD will remain heavily engaged. Expect sustained Shahed activity in Southern and Eastern Oblasts.
  • Ground Probes: RF will continue probing attacks and reconnaissance-in-force on all axes, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, to confirm or deny claimed tactical gains.
  • Negotiations: The announced Istanbul negotiations on 23/24 July are a critical diplomatic event to monitor for any shifts in RF posture or demands. Decision points for UAF will revolve around the tenor and outcome of these talks.
  • Cyber Attacks: Continued RF cyber activity is likely given the neutralization of the NoName057(16) network, indicating continued intent to disrupt UAF infrastructure.
  • Retaliatory Strikes: Increased probability of RF retaliatory deep strikes following the Millerovo airfield attack.
• Short Term (Next 3-7 days):
  • Offensive Escalation: If RF assesses UAF AD capabilities are sufficiently degraded or reserves are fixed, they may commit additional ground forces for a larger-scale offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy or attempt to exploit the claimed Malaya Tokmachka breakthrough more fully.
  • Western Aid Impact: The rate of Western aid delivery, particularly AD munitions, will be critical. Decision points for international partners to accelerate deliveries will be influenced by the ongoing intensity of RF strikes.
• Medium Term (Next 1-2 weeks):
  • Sustainment of Operations: Both sides will face significant sustainment challenges, particularly for munitions and personnel. UAF's ability to rapidly scale domestic production and secure additional international funding will be critical.
  • Information Environment Volatility: The information environment will remain highly contested, with both sides intensifying propaganda and counter-propaganda efforts.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• RF Northern Grouping Reserves (Priority 1): Detailed and verifiable intelligence on the composition, strength, and staging of RF operational reserves in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. Collection Requirement (CR): IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT assets focused on training areas, logistics nodes, and troop concentrations in RF border regions. Emphasis on identifying new unit deployments or activation.
• Verification of RF Breakthrough at Malaya Tokmachka (Priority 2): Definitive, real-time ground truth regarding the claimed RF tactical breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CR: IMINT (high-resolution satellite imagery, commercial satellite intelligence), UAV ISR, forward deployed HUMINT for ground observation and contact reports. Specific focus on troop movements, defensive line integrity, and BDA of claimed objectives.
• BDA on Western Logistics and Kyiv (Priority 3): Comprehensive BDA of all kinetic impacts in Western Oblasts and Kyiv, specifically assessing damage to rail/road networks, storage facilities, and identified defense industry sites. CR: Post-strike IMINT (drone and satellite), HUMINT (EOD reports, local civilian networks), OSINT (social media, local news).
• RF AD/REB Effectiveness & Intentions (Priority 4): Assess the full extent of RF AD/REB capabilities to counter UAF drones, especially reconnaissance assets. Understand the strategic intent behind RF's continued high-volume deep strikes, including target prioritization and adaptation. CR: SIGINT on RF AD/REB emissions, COMINT for RF C2 communications, exploited UAF drone telemetry data, BDA of RF AD/REB systems by UAF strikes.
• Internal RF Military Morale (Priority 5): Collect more widespread intelligence on RF personnel morale beyond isolated incidents, particularly within units actively engaged in offensive operations. CR: HUMINT (POW interrogations, defectors), OSINT (milblogger discussions, soldier social media activity), COMINT (intercepted internal communications).
• Verification of RF DRG Activity in Pokrovsk (Priority 6): Confirm the extent and success of claimed RF DRG ambushes or infiltration in Pokrovsk. CR: HUMINT (local reports, captured personnel interrogations), IMINT (surveillance footage, post-incident analysis).
• Damage Assessment of Millerovo Airfield (Priority 7): Detailed BDA of damage to Millerovo military airfield (runways, aircraft, hangars, fuel depots). CR: IMINT (satellite, commercial satellite), HUMINT (local reporting, insider information).
• RF Response to Millerovo Attack (Priority 8): Monitor RF military and political responses to the Millerovo airfield attack, particularly any indications of escalation in retaliation. CR: OSINT (RF official statements, milbloggers), SIGINT (RF C2 communications).
• Verification of Russian drone capabilities: Identify specific types and capabilities of RF drones observed in the Colonelcassad video (e.g., "BABA-YAGA" details, "Kozak," "Paladin," "URAL-4320" targeting). CR: Exploited drone footage analysis, wreckage analysis, technical intelligence. (Priority 9)
• Confirmation of UAF Robotic Platform Destruction: Verify the destruction of the UAF robotic platform claimed by Colonelcassad. CR: Post-engagement BDA, analysis of RF drone footage, UAF unit reports. (Priority 10)
• NEW: Verification of RF "Harpy" Drone (Priority 11): Identify the characteristics, capabilities, and operational deployment of the "Harpy" drone referenced by Colonelcassad. CR: Analysis of video footage, RF milblogger commentary, and technical intelligence on similar platforms.
• NEW: Monitoring of Southern UAV Activity (Priority 12): Track new Shahed UAV groups from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Pavlohrad and from the Black Sea towards Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts. CR: Air Force updates, local reporting, AD engagement data, SIGINT on UAV control signals.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR on Critical Ground Axes and RF Airfields:
   • Immediately re-task all available IMINT and SIGINT assets to monitor RF forces in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts for signs of massing and offensive preparations, especially given claims of a new Kharkiv front.
   • Direct all tactical UAV assets and ground reconnaissance elements to the Malaya Tokmachka sector in Zaporizhzhia to confirm or deny the claimed RF breakthrough and assess the integrity of UAF defensive lines.
   • Allocate additional ISR to Pokrovsk direction to verify claimed RF DRG activity and UAF counter-operations.
   • Conduct immediate IMINT and OSINT on Millerovo military airfield to assess battle damage and operational impact.
2. Expedite AD Munitions & Capabilities:
   • Urge international partners to immediately accelerate deliveries of all committed AD interceptors, with specific emphasis on systems capable of countering Kinzhal and other ballistic threats. Leverage the critical $6 billion funding gap in discussions.
   • Prioritize deployment of newly committed Patriot systems to protect key logistics hubs in Western Ukraine and high-value targets in Kyiv.
   • Implement mobile AD and REB solutions for frontline areas and vulnerable logistics routes to mitigate the increased Shahed and tactical aviation threat.
   • Enhance AD coverage and readiness in Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts given new Shahed threats.
3. Harden and Disperse Critical Assets:
   • Review and update plans for the rapid dispersal and hardening of mobile AD systems, C2 nodes, and critical logistics assets, particularly in Kyiv and Western Ukraine, in anticipation of continued precision strikes.
   • Enhance physical security and deception measures around known military-industrial complex sites, military airfields, and key civilian infrastructure to mitigate the risk of targeted Kinzhal or cruise missile strikes.
4. Strengthen Internal Security & Public Trust:
   • Conduct a transparent internal investigation into the NABU scandal to reassure international partners and Ukrainian public about commitment to rule of law.
   • Develop robust counter-propaganda campaigns to address RF narratives of Ukrainian disunity and weakness, particularly regarding mobilization efforts. This should include direct messaging on successful RF hacker network neutralization and highlight strong UAF morale.
   • Provide clear and consistent public information on the aftermath of RF strikes, including civilian casualties and damage, to counter RF disinformation and maintain public morale.
5. Leverage Diplomatic Avenues:
   • Utilize the upcoming Istanbul negotiations to clearly articulate Ukraine's defensive posture and demand a cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of forces, while simultaneously pushing for prisoner exchanges and humanitarian corridors.
   • Continue active diplomatic engagements to secure long-term military and financial support, emphasizing the critical role of sustained aid in countering RF's multi-domain aggression.