Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 211611Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted. Localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast and Southern Ukraine, and a new threat has emerged for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts), and Kharkiv Oblast. Confirmed civilian casualties in Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (9 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Sloviansk (4), and Kherson (7 injured). Total confirmed fatalities are 13, with multiple injuries. Rescue and emergency services are actively engaged across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Kherson. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Confirmed continued AD engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district and "Lvivskyi Kvartal" residential complex. Damage includes destroyed windows, structural damage, and ongoing fires. A commercial building (McDonald's/supermarket) and the entrance to Lukyanivska metro station also sustained damage. One confirmed fatality and nine injuries reported in Kyiv. Firefighters and emergency services are actively engaged. Confirmed kindergarten fire. Visuals confirm extensive damage to kiosks and commercial facades on Kyiv streets. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. OBA reports consequences in two districts of Kyiv Oblast. PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat reports over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat's report of "over fifteen direct hits" in Kyiv, further confirming widespread damage. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms smoke and damage within Lukyanivska metro station after impact. UAV reported on Poltava Oblast, course Kyiv Oblast. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Chernihiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Kyiv has increased to nine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store near Lukyanivska metro station after the RF attack. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night. This is a critical new development. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg. Операция Z reports a drone hit a residential house roof near Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group from Tu-95MS aircraft was detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight, with visual evidence of craters and damaged buildings. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes by 11th Guards Army VVS and PVO (East Grouping) on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi, supporting 36th Army advance, claiming personnel and equipment losses in their area of responsibility. A new group of RF UAVs is reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor, Oleg Sinegubov, confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. DNR People's Militia channel provides video of claimed destruction of a UAF communication antenna and a "Baba Yaga" heavy drone. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from the 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment (Tsentr Group of Forces) giving details about the claimed liberation of Popov Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic, including aerial views with smoke plumes. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple units of enemy equipment by the "Kaira" squad of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, showing a strike on a pickup truck. STERNENKO shares 18+ video footage of FPV drone strikes, claiming destruction of a quad bike with occupant, and a motorcycle and rider in Luhansk, and a car, likely showcasing RF losses. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Colonelcassad report on a claimed new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video claiming activity in Chasiv Yar direction, showing military vehicles in a wooded, snowy area. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in vicinity of Belaya Gora in Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons. He states capture of Belaya Gora is significant for logistics and communications to Kostiantynivka. Colonelcassad shares map showing changes over past 24 hours, indicating continued positional changes on the front line. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claims Ukrainian National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators destroyed nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports a tractor driver was blown up by a mine in a field in Balakliia community. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports at least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv city, were affected by enemy strikes over the past week. STERNENKO video shows a drone strike on 7 Russian personnel, resulting in an explosion and fire, likely inflicting casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ video claims SSO (Special Operations Forces) raided and eliminated a group of Russians attempting to set up a new position. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," resulting in an explosion and smoke plume. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Shandryholove, Torske and towards Serebryanka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Sieversk direction near Vyyimka, Verkhnokamyanske, Fedorivka and Hryhorivka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Predtechyne and Bila Hora. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Rusyn Yar, Toretsk and towards Katerynivka. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Poltavka, Udachne, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Volodymyrivka, Novotoretske, Dachne, Novopavlivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka and towards Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Filiya. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Yalta, Myrne, Tolstoy, Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Zelene Pole, Temyrivka, Piddubne and Novopil. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Huliaipole direction near Malynivka. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows FPV drone strike on Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle, resulting in explosion and secondary detonations, confirming effective UAF drone operations against RF logistics in this sector. Air Force reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial threat in the region. Олег Синєгубов reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled by occupiers. STERNENKO video claims a Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment is holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized ground engagements. Два майора video shows a soldier conducting casualty evacuation in a wooded area in the Sumy direction, implying active engagement and personnel losses/injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) confirmed flying towards Myrhorod district in Poltava Oblast, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group of missiles from Cherkasy Oblast was confirmed to have diverted from Kropyvnytskyi and headed towards Zvenyhorodka, Kaniv, and Uman districts of Cherkasy Oblast, then further into Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemryriv, Trostyanets), with a general westward course. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled" (Олександр Вілкул). Visuals from "Оперативний ЗСУ" show aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming damage. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). Air Force reports UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports one fatality in Vinnytsia from a 16 July strike, indicating delayed casualty reporting. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Olexander Vilkul, head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, provides photos of water supply network modernization, indicating ongoing civilian infrastructure projects. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports Nikopol district was attacked by artillery, MLRS "Grad," and FPV drones, impacting Nikopol, Myriv, Marhanets, and Pokrovsk communities. Photo evidence shows damaged structures, including residential and administrative buildings, and an unexploded Grad rocket. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The main group of missiles was in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, maintaining a western course. Subsequently, these missiles entered Ternopil Oblast, then Chernivtsi Oblast (with AD actively engaging a missile over Chernivtsi, 4 fatalities confirmed), and finally Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with confirmed explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk and reports of damage (blown out windows, light injuries) in one village. A Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from a MiG-31K was tracked on a vector towards Starokostiantyniv, then further to Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk and reports of casualties. The Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage and continued strikes. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk were reported as intercepted. Visual evidence of damage to civilian buildings in a village near Ivano-Frankivsk, including blown out windows and structural damage, but specifically note no casualties in the Astra report. Damage to a kindergarten and university (Lviv Polytechnic) in Lviv has been confirmed. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) confirmed in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in the Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo, with 8 inbound approaching Pivdenne/Koblevo. RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 3 injuries (now 2 fatalities confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, 1 male wounded in Vasylivskyi district). Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 7 UAVs shot down. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared video claiming drone activity and possible explosions in Zaporizhzhia direction. A missile threat is active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has provided photos of damage, likely from recent attacks. Alex Parker Returns (RF milblogger) claims a missile strike on a platform in the Black Sea used by UAF as a strongpoint, and shows photos of a small boat, implying UAF maritime presence. This claim is unverified. ASTRA reports 7 injured from Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast, increasing casualty figures. Threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Kherson direction near Prydniprovske. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alarm has been lifted. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone footage of artillery strikes by UAF 44th Artillery Brigade targeting a 2A65 Msta-B (Russian flag visible), confirming successful counter-battery fire against RF forces. This indicates active engagement and effective targeting in the Southern Axis. Colonelcassad also claims a missile strike on a Ukrainian gas platform in the Black Sea, with UAF personnel evacuating by lifeboat. This supports previous Alex Parker Returns claim. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of a significant quantity of drones (reconnaissance and FPV), charging stations, and communication equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front. This indicates ongoing support and replenishment of UAF tactical assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod airport. RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber) are gloating about Kyiv impacts, and claiming "precision" of their strikes. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow (Два майора); RF MoD now claims 23 UAVs over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z reports; AV БогомаZ reports 10 UAVs in Bryansk Oblast). Falling UAV debris on a railway station in Rostov Oblast has delayed 26 passenger trains and is reported to cause schedule changes for the next two days (TASS now reports over 50 trains delayed). Visuals from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirm a fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing damaged building and fire at Kamianolomni, with individuals examining UAV debris. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Mishustin also stated Russia is open to investments from "friendly countries" (ТАСС). Flooding reported in Moscow streets (Новости Москвы, TASS video confirmation). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports fires in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits, with video of burning trucks and an explosion near a bridge. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. RF milblogger "Два майора" reports continued "transport collapse" at airports due to UAF drone attacks. Sheremetyevo airport warned of possible increased passenger service time. TASS reports a Moldovan national detained in Ryazan confessed to transmitting data on RF Armed Forces and a defense industry plant to Kyiv. Butusov Plus channel shows propaganda posters of Ramzan Kadyrov in occupied Sevastopol, highlighting RF internal messaging. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations after 12-hour restrictions. TASS provides video of flooded pedestrian tunnel at Pavshino station (MCD-2) in Moscow. ASTRA confirms over 50 trains delayed after UAV attack on Kamianolomni station, Rostov Oblast. Новости Москвы urges Moscow residents not to go outside without necessity due to heavy rain, indicating significant disruption to civilian life in the capital. ASTRA videos confirm severe flooding in Moscow, showing an ambulance stuck in water, a three-wheeled vehicle navigating flooded streets, and vehicles in a flooded underpass, all underscoring internal infrastructure vulnerabilities. TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services, with plans for an 80-drone attack on one such facility. Colonelcassad shares video of a detention in St. Petersburg, confirming the arrest of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence accomplice who transmitted coordinates of military facilities. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements, indicating continued internal regulatory focus. Kotsnews expresses skepticism regarding Senator Lindsey Graham's motivations, implying his focus is on the American military-industrial complex rather than genuine concern. TASS reports Trump lost 75% of federal cases challenging his decrees, reflecting internal political dynamics in the US. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow and Moscow Oblast, indicating a return to more favorable weather. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts between 08:30 and 12:00 MSK. TASS reports RF MoD claims 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar were destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports RF MoD claims over 1260 UAF military personnel losses in past 24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports RF MoD claims 397 aircraft-type UAVs and one HIMARS missile shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора reiterates RF MoD claims of 397 UAVs and one HIMARS missile shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles. Военкор Котенок reports 14 more UAVs shot down over Russian territory in the past four hours. Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag. ТАСС reports MP Nilov proposed remote work for office employees during severe bad weather. ТАСС reports Sergey Leonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, supports remote work during bad weather. ТАСС reports former Ukrainian Interior Ministry and National Guard official Ihor Hrushevsky was found dead in a pool in Spain, confirmed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Alex Parker Returns (RF milblogger) shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды is advertising the manufacture and installation of truck bed caps and covers for various pickup truck models, including Chinese, Japanese, and American brands. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Оперативний ЗСУ provide more detailed footage of the aftermath of strikes on railway nodes in Likhaia and Kamianolomni in Rostov Oblast, confirming significant disruption to enemy logistics. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, indicating continued efforts to recover from UAF drone impacts. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed by more than 2 hours at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo as of 08:00 MSK on July 21, confirming the significant impact of UAF drone operations on RF civilian aviation. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, indicating a recovery effort for disrupted logistics. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, indicating a continued cultural and information warfare element. TASS reports on the situation in Russian airports following restrictions, indicating an assessment of the impact on civilian aviation after drone incidents. Басурин о главном claims "on Ukrainian cemeteries there are no more places for new graves" which is a disinformation attempt to highlight Ukrainian losses. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. TASS reports an additional UAV shot down over Moscow. Alex Parker Returns shares photos/video of a building with historical military portraits, which is irrelevant to military operations. TASS reports Shadiev was invited to the Duma to clarify the bill on fines for extremist search queries, which is a legislative development within RF, not military intelligence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides photos of damage, emphasizing continued RF terror on civilians. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video shows a cemetery with many graves, likely of soldiers, indicating RF military losses. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, a former teacher who interacted with Putin, stating he died in the "special operation," confirming a high-profile RF casualty. Fighterbomber shares promotional images and videos for survival knives, which is a commercial advertisement, not military intelligence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of UAF 61st OMBr tank crews training, demonstrating UAF readiness. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple photos from Russia, claiming a municipal head banned "Russian fascism" and that Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Roma find the region tolerant, aiming to show internal Russian diversity and address extremism concerns internally. ТАСС reports a major oil and gas field has been discovered in Poland, one of the largest in Europe in the last decade, as announced by CEP. This is a significant economic development that could impact regional energy dynamics, but does not directly pertain to current military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations: Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration, reports expected worsening weather conditions for Kharkiv Oblast, including heavy rains and thunderstorms, which could impact ground operations and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast (over 80% of monthly norm in 24 hours) indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. TASS reports bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains, cutting off villages, confirming infrastructure vulnerability to weather. "Новости Москвы" provides video of flooded streets and mentions almost 40% of monthly rainfall expected today, confirming continued adverse conditions. TASS video confirms heavy rainfall and reduced visibility on roads in Moscow and Podmoskovie. TASS video shows flooded pedestrian tunnel at Pavshino station, Moscow, confirming continued disruption due to weather. TASS reports heavy rain may persist in Moscow until 19:00 MSK, confirming ongoing adverse weather. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow and Moscow Oblast, indicating a return to more favorable weather conditions, potentially easing civilian disruption but not yet impacting military operations. Transport movement blocked on Volokolamskoye Highway, Admiral Kornilov Street, and near Nagatinskaya Embankment due to bad weather. Новости Москвы video shows flooding inside an elite residential complex in Moscow, further confirming adverse weather impacts on urban infrastructure. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea as of 14:00 MSK, indicating ongoing logistical issues for Crimea via the railway. Новости Москвы reports trains on the Paveletsky direction and Aeroexpress trains are delayed due to weather, further indicating internal transport disruptions. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, highlighting internal infrastructure vulnerabilities to weather. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station, Moscow due to rain, confirming continued weather impacts on RF internal transport. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. ТАСС photo confirms water standing in some areas of Moscow after prolonged downpour, specifically Nagornaya area, further indicating adverse weather impacting civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations: Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration, reports expected worsening weather conditions for Kharkiv Oblast, including heavy rains and thunderstorms, which could impact ground operations and visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles, with "minus" on Shaheds reported by Nikolaevsky Vanyok. AD actively worked on drones over Podil in Kyiv and on a missile over Chernivtsi. Shahed UAVs approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast were tracked. The Kinzhal was tracked from Zhytomyr Oblast to Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. UAF AF provided continuous updates on missile and UAV movements. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 7 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone in the last day. New group of RF UAVs is reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF AF reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarskyi, Kamianskyi districts). Air Force reports UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast. UAV in Poltava Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all ballistic missile threats have been lifted. Николаевский Ванёк reports AD clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports ballistic threat clear. РБК-Україна reports Ignat's reaction to a German General's statement about RF wanting to launch up to 2000 drones, indicating continued discussion on air defense capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, a critical reinforcement of AD capabilities. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, confirming continued focus on AD. Олексій Білошицький reports "Predator" brigade's AD destroyed three enemy UAVs (ZALA, Orlan-10, Molniya-2), confirming ongoing tactical AD successes. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued AD vigilance in the East. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, confirming ongoing ISR efforts and operational activity from Ukrainian intelligence. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, a significant and immediate reinforcement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming this critical reinforcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv (Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, Shevchenkivskyi) in response to explosions and falling debris. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties (at least one confirmed fatality, 9 injured in Kyiv, 4 injured in Ivano-Frankivsk, 2 fatalities in Zaporizhzhia, 2 fatalities in Dnipropetrovsk, 4 fatalities in Sloviansk, 4 fatalities in Chernivtsi, 1 wounded in Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia, 7 injured in Kherson). Fire reported at residential and warehouse facilities in Solomianskyi district and a kindergarten. Firefighters are actively engaged in Kyiv, with visuals confirming their presence at damaged residential buildings, and Yermak showing fires in Kyiv. Pre-positioned for rapid response in western oblasts following confirmed impacts, including Ivano-Frankivsk and Kamianets-Podilskyi. Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated, 2 ongoing, confirming continued emergency response efforts. KMVA video confirms rescue and emergency work ongoing in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kherson. KMVA provides photos/videos showing firefighters engaged in extinguishing fires at damaged multi-story residential buildings in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports relevant services have gone to the explosion site in Kropyvnytskyi district. ASTRA photo and video messages show firefighters responding to damaged residential buildings in Kyiv, confirming active emergency services engagement. РБК-Україна video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling, indicating active public safety measures and response. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka after the recent attacks, aiming to reassure the public about security and order. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized alerts for drones may persist (Lviv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Public warnings for shelter were ongoing in Kyiv and other threatened regions. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) is providing updates on attack consequences; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station closed initially, now fully reopened. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes due to night attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has provided photos of damage, likely from recent attacks. Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized and closed a number of ministries. Lukyanivska metro station has fully restored operations. Cabinet of Ministers officially merged Ministry of Strategic Industry with Ministry of Defense. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message on the situation in the OTU "Kharkiv" operational zone as of the morning of 21.07.2025, indicating ongoing localized control and reporting. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues urgent warning. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy has dismissed a number of ambassadors. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's decrees on appointing new ambassadors have appeared. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy signed decrees on appointing 16 new ambassadors. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces. STERNENKO confirms Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as the new commander of UAF Ground Forces, including his previous command roles, signifying a new leadership appointment. President Zelenskyy addressed Ukrainian diplomats on the main task of diplomacy: protecting Ukrainian life in Ukraine and inflicting pain on Russia. He emphasized constant search for new formats for cooperation and highlighted the Danish and Czech models for artillery, and French Mirage aviation support. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine plans to open four new embassies by the end of the year, indicating a proactive expansion of diplomatic presence and influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Security Services: SBU and OGP are conducting a special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU". NABU has confirmed that SBU and OGP are conducting investigative actions against its employees. The Office of the Prosecutor General and Mykolaivskiy Vanok, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all confirm the detention of a NABU detective head suspected of aiding RF and doing business in RF, specifically Ruslan Magamedrasulov, indicating a significant internal security operation. Office of Prosecutor General (OGP) provides photo/video evidence supporting the claim of detention of an active MP from the banned OPZZh party, suspected of being a senior FSB agent and influencing NABU. РБК-Україна reports "at least 70 searches" are being conducted by SBU, SBI, and OGP regarding NABU employees, indicating the wide scope of this internal security operation. Оперативний ЗСУ provides video and text confirming SBU and OGP exposed a banned OPZZh party MP, Fedir Khristenko, working for FSB and influencing NABU. РБК-Україна reports court ordered detention of Kyiv prosecutor, Andriy Molochko, involved in fatal traffic accident, indicating domestic legal enforcement not directly related to military operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the death of a former Ukrainian Interior Ministry official in Spain, requiring further investigation to determine if it is related to the conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU and OGP exposed an acting Ukrainian People's Deputy working for Russia, who had significant influence on NABU's activities, including facilitating illegal departures and influencing investigations. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and National Guard of Ukraine, was found dead in a pool in Spain. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows heavily burned bodies of Russian soldiers and damaged vehicles in a wooded area, likely after a Ukrainian strike. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a court arrested a prosecutor involved in a fatal drunk driving accident in Kyiv, indicating continued internal legal enforcement. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an announcement about the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine," indicating ongoing internal governance and anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports suspicion has been served to the General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU initiated a comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). РБК-Україна reports SBU denies gaining access to NABU and SAP cases, indicating ongoing internal complexities. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the General Director of "Rostec" and an assistant to the leadership of the aggressor state have been notified of suspicion, indicating continued efforts to prosecute high-level Russian officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the detention of a NABU elite unit "D-2" employee in Kyiv, suspected of spying for Russian special services, further emphasizing successful counter-intelligence operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU raids on NABU structures continue, showing active operations against internal threats. President Zelenskyy also emphasized the need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for the war, including work on a Special Tribunal and the need for clarity and specific timelines for its launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians are fighting in its ranks, with more expected. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR. This aligns with and attempts to counter the narrative of foreign volunteers supporting UAF. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows an interview with a foreign volunteer, stating 2000 Colombian fighters have arrived in Ukraine and are professionally performing combat tasks, confirming continued influx of foreign fighters. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel from 352nd motorized rifle regiment were captured by UAF forces from "Khorne Group" 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, and are requesting exchange for Azovstal defenders, if verified, indicates UAF successes in capturing RF personnel in border regions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features two individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, one from the 352nd motorized rifle regiment and another from the 358th railway brigade, providing personal information, possibly indicating captured personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade is crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment," indicating localized resource constraints for specific units. Zelenskyy conducts meeting with military, internal affairs, and foreign ministers, appoints 16 new ambassadors and sets diplomatic priorities, indicating proactive foreign policy and resource alignment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a NATO graphic announcing the 2026-2030 NATO Common Funding Resource Plan provides resources for priority activities in support of Ukraine (JATEC and NSATU), indicating future long-term support. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative "Gift for Putin" which accumulated nearly €2.5 million for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, including footage of soldiers operating a D-30 in a snowy environment, indicating international support for material requirements. Zelenskiy / Official video shows President Zelenskyy presenting new Minister of Defence Denys Shmyhal, emphasizing the need for increased domestic production of weapons and drones, and a response to Russian strikes. Zelenskiy / Official states Ukraine needs to increase its share of domestic weapon production to 50% within the next six months. Zelenskiy / Official highlights hundreds of agreements with partners for weapon supply, joint production, and investments, and demands a report on their audit and implementation within ten days. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reiterates Zelenskyy's statements on domestic weapon production and international agreements. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, confirming continued focus on military resource alignment. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requires REB means for combat missions and safe logistics, indicating specific equipment requirements. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine invested over $20 billion in its own defense industry over two years, per Umerov. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting. This is a critical and immediate resource requirement. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support. РБК-Україна reports an urgent fundraiser for drones for the UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating a critical development for UAF domestic production capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil, if the US does so, indicating efforts to further constrain RF's financial resources, which indirectly benefits UAF. ASTRA reports the Ramstein meeting has started, and Ukraine stated it needs $6 billion by the end of the year. Оперативний ЗСУ provides further details on the results of the 29th Ramstein meeting as reported by Shmyhal, indicating continued efforts to secure military aid. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides an infographic summarizing the key outcomes of the 29th Ramstein meeting, emphasizing hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds and funds for drones, confirming ongoing international support for UAF resource requirements. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continue participation in financing the Ukrainian defense industry through the "Danish model", as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal, indicating continued and specialized international financial support for UAF armored capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos showing tank crews of the 61st Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) conducting rigorous training, emphasizing combat proficiency, precise firing, confident maneuvering, and clear crew interaction. This indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and improve UAF combat readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF is executing a high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. This included:
    • Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches, with 24 cruise missiles detected across a significantly expanded area, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts.
    • Sustained Shahed UAV attacks targeting Kyiv (~10 initially over Kyiv), with 426 total OWA UAVs launched. Shahed UAVs were reported approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast, with some now targeting areas around Brovary and Slavutych. New Shahed groups are active in the Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine (Pivdenne/Koblevo). A new group of Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast reported towards Kharkiv Oblast. New threat of strike UAVs for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New Shahed threat for Kharkiv Oblast.
    • Re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launch, targeting Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, indicating a critical re-engagement of this system on the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg.
    • TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы (KABs/Glide Bombs) on Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued use of guided aviation munitions.
    • RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber) are gloating about Kyiv impacts, and claiming "precision" of their strikes. "Dva Mayora" channel is gloating about the "accuracy" of their strikes and predicting increasing strikes on capitals and critical infrastructure. Colonelcassad is disseminating photos of claimed destroyed UAF M2 Bradley BMPs, and video of claimed captured UAF personnel. "Басурин о главном" posting historical photos ("#ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ") indicates standard content unrelated to current ops. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a generic "productive Monday" photo with soldiers, indicating morale messaging. Operatsiya Z and Colonelcassad circulate photos/videos of claimed impacts in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. Kotsnews shows video of "precise fire damage" against infantry. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) provides photo of large explosion plume, captioned "Beautiful," likely celebrating recent strikes. Alex Parker Returns claims missile strike on Black Sea platform and shows an image of a small boat, implying UAF presence. Воин DV shares FPV drone footage claiming successful neutralization of multiple units of enemy equipment by the "Kaira" squad of the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, showing a strike on a pickup truck. STERNENKO shares 18+ video footage of FPV drone strikes, claiming destruction of a quad bike with occupant, and a motorcycle and rider in Luhansk, and a car, likely showcasing RF losses. НгП раZVедка provides a summary of "Night strike of retribution." TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Colonelcassad shares videos showing the aftermath of strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv, including smoke plumes from damaged buildings and a large explosion at night. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, claiming it affected American business. Fighterbomber video shows a ground-level view of a military aircraft, likely a fighter jet, on an airfield, indicating ongoing aviation operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion, confirming continued air-to-ground strike capabilities. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," resulting in an explosion and smoke plume, indicating continued tactical drone strikes. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, confirming continued aviation use in frontline areas. ТАСС video shows a burning pickup truck in the special operation zone after being attacked by three drones, as reported by the host of "Large-caliber trouble" Smirnov, indicating continued RF vulnerability to UAF tactical drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" reinforces RF deep strike narrative. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes over a city and multiple explosions at night in an urban environment, and damage to a multi-story building, consistent with ongoing military operations/attacks. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows FPV drone pilots destroying an enemy UAV, indicating counter-drone operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video shows individuals assembling and preparing drones, implying ongoing efforts to maintain and increase drone operational capacity. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows a drone strike on enemy vehicles, likely implying successful strikes against UAF transport. WarGonzo shares a promotional video for "USX-1 DEFIANT" and DARPA's "NOMARS" project, indicating continued interest and investment in unmanned maritime systems, which could be used for reconnaissance or strike. Colonelcassad shares photos showing the movement of Geranium UAVs and missiles over Ukrainian territory yesterday, indicating continued aerial activity. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle in the Balagan district of the DNR, confirming continued RF drone effectiveness in tactical engagements and targeting UAF armor. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming that due to scaled-up "Geranium" (Shahed) production, these drones are now used directly on the front line in Sumy Oblast, indicating a tactical adaptation for short-range strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, indicates continued impact of UAF drone strikes on RF territory, including civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aviation: RF airports (Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Nizhny Novgorod) have lifted temporary restrictions, indicating a return to normal domestic air traffic following previous UAF drone activity. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow by midnight (Два майора). RF MoD now claims 23 UAVs over Moscow region and 74 total UAVs destroyed over RF territory (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z). RF Minister of Transport Nikitin addressed concerns about flight delays under "Kover" plan (temporary flight restrictions due to UAVs). "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. Red Wings airlines announced new flights from Kazan and Yekaterinburg to Gelendzhik, indicating confidence in civilian air traffic. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts between 08:30 and 12:00 MSK. TASS reports RF MoD claims 397 aircraft-type UAVs shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора reiterates RF MoD claims of 397 UAVs shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок reports 14 more UAVs shot down over Russian territory in the past four hours. AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter were introduced at Sheremetyevo airport. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days due to drone attacks, highlighting the impact of UAF drone operations. ТАСС reports a crash of an aircraft in Bangladesh with at least 20 injuries, while not directly related to the conflict, highlights the general risks associated with aviation. Военкор Котенок claims NATO aviation, likely reconnaissance aircraft with transponders off, are patrolling the western Black Sea, indicating RF awareness of NATO air presence. РБК-Україна reports a fighter jet crash at a school in Bangladesh, claiming dozens dead and over 100 injured, adding to general aviation risk awareness. TASS reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down between 12:20 and 15:00, five over Moscow region, confirming continued RF AD activity and claims. AV БогомаZ reports an additional 6 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, confirming continued RF AD activity. Два майора photo message and caption regarding Ukrainian planes hiding in Romanian airspace suggests RF observation of UAF aviation maneuvers near the border. TASS reports an additional UAV shot down over Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim, Malaya Tokmachka claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar" through multi-directional assault, providing drone footage of damaged structures and ground movement. Leonid Sharov from the "Zapad" grouping claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. "Dnevnik Desantnika" shared video of soldiers training against aerial targets (possibly drones/balloons) and drone activity on Zaporizhzhia direction, also appealed for donations for drones and Starlink. Rogozin of "Dva Mayora" commented on the Zaporizhzhia front, but no specific operational details were provided. RF sources claim the establishment of a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) to support future operations into Sumy Oblast. This claim requires verification. Рыбарь provides a general summary for the morning of July 21st. TASS claims "liberation of Bila Hora" which "allows cutting an important supply route of the UAF in DNR" as stated by Pushilin. "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) provides visual confirmation of a destroyed settlement between Kostiantynivka and Bila Hora, indicating intense combat in this area. DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and near three other villages in Donetsk Oblast. DNR People's Militia channel claims destruction of a UAF communication antenna and a "Baba Yaga" heavy drone. Rybar provides image/caption of new rockets for helicopters, indicating focus on aviation munition development. MoD Russia provides video of servicemen from the 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment (Tsentr Group of Forces) giving details about the claimed liberation of Popov Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic, including aerial views with smoke plumes and descriptions of encountering enemy positions in basements and houses. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Colonelcassad claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares thermal imagery video and caption indicating activity on Chasiv Yar direction, showing military vehicles. Alex Parker Returns video shows vehicle moving on dirt road at twilight, with sparks and smoke in distance, suggesting an explosion or artillery impact, consistent with ongoing conflict. Mash na Donbasse video shows individuals, some in military attire, checking fishing nets, collecting fish, and handling packaged goods, possibly related to resource gathering or illicit activities during conflict. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in the vicinity of Belaya Gora in the Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a Russian soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons, and stating its significance for logistics and communications. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion, indicating continued ground operations and drone integration. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," confirming ongoing tactical drone use in ground operations. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions, confirming widespread ground engagements. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, indicating persistent RF ground pressure in border regions. Colonelcassad provides a video of a four-wheeled robotic platform with an antenna, suggesting ongoing development and potential deployment of UGVs for reconnaissance or delivery. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows drone reconnaissance and attacks on enemy vehicles and positions in Pokrovsk, indicating continued heavy fighting in this direction. Воин DV video shows a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform which was loaded with supplies, destroying a generator and possibly fuel cans, confirming RF's ability to interdict UGV logistics. Народная милиция ДНР channel claims to show "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts," aiming to demonstrate tactical success and intelligence effectiveness. TASS provides video of claimed destruction of two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using aerial footage with crosshairs on moving vehicles. This is a significant tactical claim of eliminating retreating forces. Воин DV reports on the Southern-Donetsk direction, mentioning fighting near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and stating that the enemy is trying to regain previously lost positions, confirming ongoing ground engagements and RF defensive/counter-offensive actions. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming they broke UAF defenses in an area they couldn't approach for a year, implying a significant tactical breakthrough in the Southern Axis. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai (Donetsk People's Republic), indicating continued RF ground offensive capabilities and successful targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of engagements against enemy forces (identified by Russian flags) including targeting of personnel, positions, and a fuel/lubricant depot (Sklad PMM), confirming RF ground force deployments and UAF counter-tactics. STERNENKO video reports that a Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment is holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued localized ground engagements. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, supporting claims of continued RF ground pressure in the East. Сили оборони Півдня України video, featuring drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions (likely artillery), suggests ongoing UAF efforts to identify and target RF ground assets, implying continued RF ground presence and activity in the Southern operational zone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: TASS reports a man was detained in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services, with plans for an 80-drone attack on one such facility. Colonelcassad shares video of the FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence accomplice in St. Petersburg, confirming the arrest and the claim of intelligence transmission regarding military facilities. ASTRA provides video of the FSB detention in St. Petersburg, confirming reports of an alleged spy collecting data on RF military facilities. Военкор Котенок shares video depicting an arrest operation in a public, residential area, consistent with the detention of an agent of Ukrainian special services in St. Petersburg collecting data on military-industrial complex and MoD RF facilities. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former Ukrainian official, was found dead in a pool in Spain. Два майора video shows the apprehension of an individual by law enforcement, with discussion of documents, identified as a Ukrainian intelligence agent in St. Petersburg, confirming internal security operations against intelligence threats. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court for preliminary hearings, indicating ongoing internal security and counter-terrorism efforts. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, indicating continued focus on high-profile internal security events and their potential connections. Север.Реалии reports a war participant who killed a girl is being expelled from a university in St. Petersburg, indicating social implications of returning soldiers and internal legal processes. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov for two additional articles of the Russian Criminal Code. ТАСС reports entry to Russian seaports for foreign vessels will require FSB consent. ТАСС reports FSB detained a top manager of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov. ТАСС reports 437 million rubles will be collected from the former head of Kirovsky and Moskovsky districts of Kazan, Sergei Mironov and his relatives, indicating ongoing anti-corruption or financial crime efforts within RF. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, reflecting domestic political messaging and historical revisionism. This could signify an intent to reinforce state control and suppress dissent. ASTRA reports Russia plans to introduce fines for cryptocurrency payments starting in 2026, indicating continued internal regulatory control. Басурин о главном video and text confirm FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg who was collecting information on RF defense enterprises, reinforcing RF internal security efforts. Басурин о главном reports FSB detained the head of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, for embezzlement of over 1 billion rubles, indicating continued internal security operations against financial crime. TASS reports a criminal case has been opened against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes" about the RF Armed Forces, indicating RF's continued suppression of independent media and control of the information space. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) provides operational video of FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg, linked to the transmission of coordinates of military facilities. TASS reports the military court will begin hearing the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case on August 4, demonstrating continued internal security focus on this high-profile event. Alex Parker Returns reports that FSB has started turning away foreigners at the border for subscriptions to pro-Ukrainian and radical channels, as well as criticism of authorities in private correspondence, particularly Tajik and Uzbek citizens, indicating an expansion of internal security measures related to information control and perceived foreign influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Infrastructure: TASS reports the work of Miramistin and Okomistin producers has been blocked due to court-imposed restrictions, indicating an internal regulatory impact on civilian production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Recent updates from Intelligence Updates

• Eastern Ukraine: Colonelcassad reports the 1st Tank Army's destruction of a UAF M777 howitzer with a Lancet in Shyikivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: ASTRA reports a portrait of Ramzan Kadyrov was briefly displayed alongside Soviet military leaders in Sevastopol, causing public backlash and subsequent removal. ASTRA also provides general video and photo messages related to commemorative plaques for Soviet military leaders, which are historical in nature. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Diplomatic: Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Southern Ukraine: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA raises the question of UAF reinforcement on Kinburn Spit, indicating potential observation or concern regarding UAF activity in that area. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Logistics/Propaganda: WarGonzo shares a video discussing the importance of supply replenishment in military operations, likely aiming to reinforce internal messaging on logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukraine Diplomatic/Political: Alex Parker Returns, an RF milblogger, claims Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposed a new round of negotiations in Istanbul to prepare for a leaders' meeting, framing Zelenskyy as a "military dictator." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Security/Information Warfare: TASS reports the Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes" about the RF Armed Forces, and she is expected to be put on a wanted list. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• International Sanctions: TASS reports that the UK has imposed sanctions against 134 vessels, allegedly linked to Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UK sanctioned 135 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels and two associated companies, expanding sanctions against RF maritime logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Information Warfare: Colonelcassad posts satirical photo and video messages mocking Belarusian opposition figure Tikhanovsky, aiming to discredit and undermine opposition movements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Foreign Relations: TASS reports that Ministers of Defense of Iran and Russia discussed military cooperation in Moscow, indicating continued military-diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal: TASS reports actress Tatiana Egorova died at 82, a non-military internal event. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Information Warfare: TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov commented on Ukraine's search warrant for him on his birthday, leveraging a personal event for propaganda to frame himself as a victim of Ukrainian aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Propaganda: Рыбарь posts photos with text in Romanian, claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," which is a disinformation attempt to stir ethnic tensions and portray a perceived threat from NATO-aligned neighbors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Domestic Policy: TASS reports that the State Duma will consider a bill prohibiting the feeding of stray animals near apartment buildings, a civilian domestic policy issue without direct military relevance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Domestic Production/Logistics: TASS reports that Volodin has instructed to develop amendments to legislation on prohibiting the purchase of military uniforms abroad, indicating a focus on domestic military production and supply chain security for RF armed forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Economic/Financial Policy: TASS reports that Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, with restrictions on transactions since July 20, indicating an impact of international sanctions on Russian financial services and civilian economic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munitions Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, Continued KAB use, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern (Kyiv, Chernihiv), Eastern (Kharkiv), Central (Poltava, Kremenсhuk), and now significantly Western (Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk) Ukraine demonstrates significant coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of cluster munitions with X-101 in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The repeated multi-day nature of these large-scale strikes confirms robust production or stockpiles of munitions. Claimed FAB strikes on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicate continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, further illustrating the scope of RF strikes on civilian and commercial infrastructure. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, confirming continued aviation strike capabilities on the frontline. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" indicates RF's self-assessment of its deep strike capability. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes and explosions over a city, and damage to a multi-story building, confirming continued and effective deep strike capabilities. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, confirming the capability to use hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg, indicating continued and adaptive targeting of UAF defense industry. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы on Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued use of guided aviation munitions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial strike capability in the East. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, confirming a tactical drone strike capability. Alex Parker Returns video claims Shahed drones are now being used for frontline strikes in Sumy Oblast due to increased production, indicating a new tactical application of this system for short-range kinetic effects. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, shows a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, confirming RF AD capabilities to intercept UAF drones over their territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. The sarcastic claim about Vasylkiv airfield and references to "Geraniums flying in dozens," as well as claims of Kyiv being "without AD," are designed to create psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) aims to show tactical success. RF state media (TASS) is also leveraging internal incidents (UAV attacks on Moscow airports, train delays due to debris) to portray Ukraine as causing civilian disruption, justifying RF actions. "Воин DV" suggests Kyiv is creating a "background" for negotiations this week. Colonelcassad shows videos of claimed "Geranium" strikes in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns (RF milblogger) explicitly engages in propaganda comparing Russian and Ukrainian International Mathematical Olympiad results to claim Ukrainian academic inferiority and cause "hysterics." This is a new example of RF hybrid warfare exploiting non-military topics. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) propagates a narrative that Trump's tariffs have made the US critically dependent on Russia for fertilizer supplies, aiming to highlight RF's economic leverage and the unintended consequences of Western policies. TASS reports RF MoD claims destruction of 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag, a move that can be leveraged by RF to show international acceptance despite sanctions. Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI, aiming to sow discord and exploit political divisions in the US. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, which could be framed as a diplomatic success for RF. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video showing the restoration of a memorial can be used to project a narrative of Russian resilience and care for historical memory amidst conflict. WarGonzo video discussing the Afghanistan war in a retrospective context might aim to link past military achievements with current operations, boosting morale or historical narrative. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Два майора video, in the context of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence agent detention, reinforces the narrative of successful counter-intelligence and Ukrainian malevolence. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message claims the "Nazi regime is devouring itself" due to corruption in NABU, attempting to undermine Ukrainian institutions. ТАСС reports the Spanish Civil Guard found nothing suspicious in the death of former Ukrainian Interior Ministry official Ihor Hrushevsky, which could be used to deflect any RF involvement narratives. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, framing it within a broader intelligence/security narrative. Kotsnews photo message at an airport with a child drinking from a fountain aims to project normalcy and stability, counteracting narratives of disruption. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics aims to demoralize. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, a clear disinformation attempt to demoralize Ukraine. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, reflecting an internal propaganda effort to glorify figures associated with state control and repression, signaling an intent to reinforce authoritarian narratives. Басурин о главном highlights a rating of "War Correspondents" channels, indicating RF's self-awareness and efforts to manage its information space. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment efforts. Басурин о главном uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, demonstrating an intent to exploit US political developments for propaganda. Colonelcassad's claim of a breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka serves to boost morale and project success on the Southern axis. НгП раZVедка reporting on its Telegram channel ranking indicates RF's focus on information dominance and audience reach. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can leverage to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's continued adaptation in legal and information warfare against perceived internal threats. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, indicating RF's sensitivity to perceived international bias and desire to control narrative in non-military spheres. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. TASS provides a video of Sergey Stepashin, a member of the board of directors of Moscow Dynamo, discussing the sale of beer at stadiums, a civilian-focused message that projects normalcy and addresses societal interests. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a radar monitoring display with "Geranium" UAV and missile movements, using visual information to promote a narrative of RF air superiority and UAF air defense vulnerabilities. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) shares a satirical video of Donald Trump hinting at Obama's arrest, aiming to exploit US internal political divisions for propaganda. Басурин о главном is propagating disinformation claiming that French media reports Ukrainian cemeteries have run out of space for new graves, indicating huge UAF losses, directly aiming to portray Ukrainian weakness. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with numerous graves marked with Russian flags will be used to demonstrate Russian sacrifice and justify continued conflict. TASS reporting on the death of Gennady Starunov, who communicated with Putin, will be used for internal propaganda to glorify sacrifice and normalize military losses. Alex Parker Returns is using photos with captions related to a municipal head in Chelyabinsk banning "Russian fascism" and claiming Roma, Tajiks, and Uzbeks find the region tolerant, which is a nuanced internal propaganda effort to demonstrate Russian internal social dynamics and potentially counter accusations of fascism from Ukraine. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant for him on his birthday, which RF will use to frame him as a victim of Ukrainian aggression and rally internal support. Рыбарь shares images with text claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," which is a disinformation attempt to create regional instability and portray perceived external threats, aligning with RF's broader narrative of external enemies. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, is a direct disinformation attempt to undermine Ukrainian defense capabilities and morale. Alex Parker Returns is also attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament (Aleksey Zhupanin) in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Operations (Persistent Attritional Pressure, Shaping Operations, Claims of Breakthroughs): RF continues to conduct attritional ground assaults in Eastern Ukraine, with recent claims of "Popov Yar" liberation (unverified location) and specific claims of UAF equipment destruction and personnel losses, indicating persistent offensive intent and focus on denying UAF equipment. "Воин DV" claims recent bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi (East) supporting 36th Army advance, suggesting continued focus on Eastern front. Claims of a bridgehead in Kursk Oblast for a Sumy offensive indicate active shaping operations on the Northern Axis. DeepState reports advances near Popovy Yar and other villages, corroborating RF ground offensive pressure. MoD Russia's video on Popov Yar liberation confirms RF's capability to conduct ground assaults, describing encountering enemy positions and consolidating positions. Воин DV and STERNENKO's FPV drone videos, showing strikes on UAF vehicles, confirm RF's increasing capability to deploy tactical drones for direct engagement and inflict localized losses on UAF equipment and personnel. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Colonelcassad claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to stretch UAF reserves. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in the vicinity of Belaya Gora in the Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a Russian soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons, and stating its significance for logistics and communications. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, causing an explosion, indicating continued ground operations and drone integration. Воин DV video shows drone operators of the "Southern" grouping bombing "enemy holes," confirming ongoing tactical drone use in ground operations. Liveuamap Source provides multiple photo messages of clashes at Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions, confirming widespread ground engagements. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, indicating persistent RF ground pressure in border regions. Colonelcassad provides a video of a four-wheeled robotic platform with an antenna, suggesting ongoing development and potential deployment of UGVs for reconnaissance or delivery. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows drone reconnaissance and attacks on enemy vehicles and positions in Pokrovsk, indicating continued heavy fighting and RF capability to conduct targeted strikes. Воин DV video shows a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform which was loaded with supplies, destroying a generator and possibly fuel cans, confirming RF's ability to interdict UGV logistics. Народная милиция ДНР channel claims to show "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts," aiming to demonstrate tactical success and intelligence effectiveness. TASS provides video of claimed destruction of two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using aerial footage with crosshairs on moving vehicles. This is a significant tactical claim of eliminating retreating forces. Воин DV reports on the Southern-Donetsk direction, mentioning fighting near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and stating that the enemy is trying to regain previously lost positions, confirming ongoing ground engagements and RF defensive/counter-offensive actions. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming they broke UAF defenses in an area they couldn't approach for a year, implying a significant tactical breakthrough in the Southern Axis. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai (Donetsk People's Republic), demonstrating continued RF ground offensive capabilities and successful targeting. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of engagements against enemy forces (identified by Russian flags) including targeting of personnel, positions, and a fuel/lubricant depot (Sklad PMM), confirming RF ground force deployments and UAF counter-tactics. STERNENKO video reports that a Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment is holding back Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued localized ground engagements. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, supporting claims of continued RF ground pressure in the East. Kotsnews video shows an FPV drone strike on enemy personnel in a field, indicating continued tactical drone use to inflict casualties on UAF ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Systemic Degradation of Ukrainian Infrastructure, Air Defense & Western Aid Logistics (PRIMARY - Deepest & Widest Expansion, Exhaustion, Hypersonic Targeting, Cluster Munition Use, FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE): RF's immediate intention is to maximize damage to critical infrastructure, exhaust UAF air defense munitions, and instill widespread fear through sustained, high-intensity, multi-domain aerial campaigns. The targeting of areas like Poltava, Kremenсhuk, and the new western trajectory through Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk, including a Kinzhal strike, suggests specific intent against energy infrastructure, industrial capacity, and key transportation nodes across broader central and now significantly western Ukraine, directly impacting Western aid corridors. The massing of Shaheds and multiple missile types on Kyiv is intended to saturate AD in the capital. The confirmed use of cluster munitions aims to increase the lethality and area effect of strikes. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves suggests an intent to degrade UAF ability to maneuver and reinforce. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, likely intended to demonstrate the broad impact of RF strikes beyond military targets. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, indicating continued intent to disrupt frontline support and logistics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" indicates an intent to project overwhelming force. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the intent to use high-value, hard-to-intercept missiles against the capital, likely to maximize strategic impact and pressure. Colonelcassad's claim of a strike on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv indicates an intent to degrade UAF domestic military production. Colonelcassad's claim of a missile strike on a Black Sea gas platform suggests an intent to disrupt Ukrainian maritime infrastructure or forward operating bases. TASS video claims RF destroyed two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, indicating intent to target UAF personnel and movements. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued intent to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure in the East. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, indicates an intent to destroy UAF armored vehicles. Alex Parker Returns video explicitly states the intent to use "Geraniums" (Shaheds) on the frontline due to scaled production, indicating an intent to apply this munition type more broadly for tactical effect, in addition to deep strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, highlights the unintended consequences for RF civilians, which may be an acceptable cost for RF in its intent to interdict UAF deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Warfare & Demoralization: RF intends to break Ukrainian civilian morale through relentless, widespread attacks causing casualties and damage. Propaganda messaging (e.g., mocking shelter effectiveness, gloating about impacts, claiming AD exhaustion) directly supports this. The narrative from "Военкор Котенок" suggesting Zelenskyy seeks negotiations to "buy time" for missile deliveries exemplifies this. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society and negatively influence prisoner exchange outcomes, indicating RF's intent to exploit sensitive issues for psychological warfare. Басурин о главном using a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum aims to amplify narratives that may cause disunity within the West or among Ukraine's partners. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can leverage to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures, aiming to sow discord. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's intent to control its internal information space and suppress dissent, which is a facet of psychological control. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, indicates RF's sensitivity to perceived international bias and desire to control narrative in non-military spheres. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries highlights RF's intent to demoralize and undermine public confidence in UAF. Alex Parker Returns posts photos claiming a municipal head in Russia banned "Russian fascism," which is a disinformation attempt to deflect accusations of fascism onto internal RF groups and sow confusion, while also aiming to show internal RF social harmony, a key psychological objective. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant for him on his birthday, intending to portray him as a victim and rally support against Ukraine. Рыбарь shares images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," which is a disinformation attempt to create perceived external threats and promote an "us vs. them" mentality, contributing to the psychological warfare landscape. НгП раZVедка video mocks Ukrainian AD capabilities with a 'zenith-missile spitz,' aiming to demoralize and create a sense of futility. Alex Parker Returns explicitly attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, aims to create social discord and resentment, supporting psychological warfare against internal Ukrainian cohesion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Gain (Limited, with Potential for Expansion and Breakthroughs): RF continues to press for tactical gains in the East, as evidenced by claims of "Popov Yar," "Bila Hora," and reported UAF losses, and DeepState's assessment of RF advances. Preparations on the Northern Axis suggest a potential for future large-scale offensive operations aimed at fixing UAF forces or seizing territory in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. Басурин о главном video claims capture of Belaya Gora is significant for logistics and communications to Kostiantynivka, suggesting continued RF intent for territorial gain and control of supply routes. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, indicating continued RF intent for territorial gains. Colonelcassad's claim of a breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, if true, signifies an intent for significant, deeper territorial gains in the South. MoD Russia video showing a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai indicates continued intent to achieve tactical gains and degrade UAF defensive positions. STERNENKO video reporting on Border Guard Service holding back Russian advances in Donetsk indicates RF's continued intent to push forward on the ground. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, confirming continued RF intent to gain ground in the East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Counter-Intelligence and Internal Security Operations: The detention of a Moldovan national in Ryazan accused of transmitting military and defense plant data to Kyiv indicates RF's intent to aggressively counter perceived Ukrainian intelligence activities within its borders. Voenkor KOTENOK provides video of the FSB detention of a Moldovan national with Russian passport in Ryazan, accused of being recruited by Kyiv intelligence services, serving to bolster the "RF Victimhood" and "Successful Counter-Intelligence" narratives. TASS reports the detention of a man in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services, signaling an intensified focus on counter-intelligence against perceived UAF sabotage/intelligence efforts within RF. Военкор Котенок video and text confirms detention of an agent of Ukrainian special services in St. Petersburg, reinforcing RF intent to actively counter intelligence gathering on military-industrial complex and MoD RF facilities. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast, while not directly intelligence-related, but could be used by RF to demonstrate transparency or address internal issues, depending on the internal narrative. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former Ukrainian official, was found dead in a pool in Spain. Два майора video on the detention of a Ukrainian intelligence agent in St. Petersburg confirms RF's intent to aggressively counter perceived threats to its military facilities. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, indicating a clear intent to pursue counter-terrorism measures. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, framing it within a broader intelligence/security narrative. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov for two additional articles of the Russian Criminal Code. ТАСС reports entry to Russian seaports for foreign vessels will require FSB consent. ТАСС reports FSB detained a top manager of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov. ТАСС reports 437 million rubles will be collected from the former head of Kirovsky and Moskovsky districts of Kazan, Sergei Mironov and his relatives, indicating an intent to prosecute corruption cases. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, reflecting an internal propaganda effort to glorify figures associated with state control and repression, signaling an intent to reinforce authoritarian narratives. ASTRA reports Russia plans to introduce fines for cryptocurrency payments starting in 2026, indicating an intent to tighten internal financial controls. Басурин о главном video and text confirm FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg who was collecting information on RF defense enterprises, reinforcing RF intent for aggressive counter-intelligence. Басурин о главном reports FSB detained the head of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, for embezzlement of over 1 billion rubles, indicating continued intent to pursue high-level financial crime and internal security. ТАСС reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes" about the RF Armed Forces, indicating continued intent to control information and suppress dissent within RF. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) video of FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg directly demonstrates this intent. TASS reports the military court will begin hearing the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case on August 4, demonstrating a clear intent to pursue and resolve internal security threats. Alex Parker Returns reports that FSB has started turning away foreigners at the border for subscriptions to pro-Ukrainian and radical channels, as well as criticism of authorities in private correspondence, particularly Tajik and Uzbek citizens, indicating an expansion of internal security measures related to information control and perceived foreign influence. Север.Реалии reports that the Russian General Prosecutor's Office has declared the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation "undesirable," indicating an intent to suppress perceived foreign influence and NGOs within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Disrupt Ukrainian Internal Stability: The claimed detention of a Ukrainian MP working for the FSB and influencing NABU aligns with an intention to destabilize internal Ukrainian governance and exploit vulnerabilities. Басурин о главном's claim that Istanbul negotiations are a "Ukrainian PR action" signals an intent to undermine UAF's diplomatic efforts and portray them as insincere. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message claims NABU is corrupt, demonstrating an intent to undermine Ukrainian internal stability. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video on a court hearing with military connections in Ukraine indicates RF monitoring and potential exploitation of Ukrainian internal legal processes. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's intent to control information and suppress dissent, which can indirectly impact Ukrainian internal stability by limiting narratives. TASS blocking the work of Miramistin producers indicates an intent to control internal industries and potentially disrupt civilian supply chains for strategic reasons. Alex Parker Returns photos with captions related to a municipal head in Russia banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicates an RF attempt to sow confusion and potentially exploit internal social dynamics within Ukraine by drawing parallels or implying internal divisions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo of a Ukrainian military commissariat and a caption mocking a "volunteer" aims to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization and portray internal disunity. Alex Parker Returns is explicitly attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV): The expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine (Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts) from Tu-95MS, concurrently with ongoing Shahed waves, and the re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk) and now Kyiv, indicates a continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. This new focus on far-western regions, which are critical logistical and industrial hubs for Western aid, represents a significant escalation in geographic scope and lethality. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation, increasing indiscriminate lethality. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves in Ivanivka suggests an expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine beyond frontline areas. The sustained multi-vector threats to Kyiv with Shaheds, and new missile threats from Sumy axis, demonstrates an adaptive strategy to probe and exploit AD gaps across Ukrainian territory. Missile trajectory changes (e.g., from Kropyvnytskyi to Cherkasy/Vinnytsia and then further west) indicate a sophisticated attempt to confuse and evade UAF AD. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, indicating a critical tactical adaptation of using hypersonic missiles against the capital. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv confirms a tactical adaptation to target UAF domestic defense production. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: The increase in the number of Shahed UAVs specifically targeting Kyiv (now ~10), the emergence of new Shahed groups in the Black Sea heading towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates an intent to increase saturation and potential kinetic effects on the capital, southern coastal areas, and eastern urban centers. New Shahed threat for Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued spread of drone activity. UAV threat for Zolotoniskyi and Cherkaskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast, indicating adaptive shift in drone vectors. UAV in Poltava Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a continued and potentially adapted air threat. Air Force reports UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a continued focus on eastern urban centers. Colonelcassad shares a photo of radar monitoring display with "Geranium" UAV and missile movements, illustrating RF's adaptive use of intelligence to coordinate attacks. Alex Parker Returns video claims Shahed drones are now being used for frontline strikes in Sumy Oblast due to increased production, indicating a new tactical application of this system for short-range kinetic effects, directly supporting ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine and NOW Kyiv: The re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and the use of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv indicates an escalation in the type of munitions used against the capital and far-western Ukraine, likely intended for rapid kinetic effect and to bypass layered AD. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, confirming this critical escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive): RF has rapidly adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using the lifting of airport restrictions as a propaganda point to demonstrate RF resilience, while simultaneously intensifying demoralizing rhetoric regarding strikes on Ukraine, specifically claiming UAF AD is "gone." RF state media (TASS) is also disseminating video of claimed ground operations (Popov Yar, UAF equipment losses) and drone intercept claims (TASS, ASTRA) to demonstrate tactical successes. They are also actively reporting on the "collateral damage" of UAF drone attacks on Russian territory, such as train delays in Rostov, to shape domestic and international narratives. "Воин DV" suggests these strikes are intended to create a "background" for negotiations. RF milbloggers are adapting to exploit non-military events (e.g., International Math Olympiad results) for propaganda purposes against Ukraine. RF state media (Операция Z / Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) adapts its economic propaganda to claim US critical dependence on Russia for fertilizer, demonstrating a multi-domain approach to information warfare. TASS reports RF MoD claims destruction of 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS, indicating adaptation to counter new UAF drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag, representing an adaptation to maintain international presence despite sanctions. ТАСС reports MP Nilov proposed remote work for office employees during severe bad weather, showing an adaptation to address internal civilian issues. ТАСС reports Sergey Leonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, supports remote work during bad weather, reinforcing civilian adaptations to internal challenges. ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on various international relations topics suggest a centralized and coordinated diplomatic messaging strategy. ТАСС reports Pudov's statement on migrant language requirements indicates adaptation of internal policy. WarGonzo video discussing the Afghanistan war in a retrospective context might aim to link past military achievements with current operations, boosting morale or historical narrative. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption demonstrates an adaptive information operation to target Ukrainian internal stability. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, indicating an adaptive exploitation of high-profile deaths for information operations. Kotsnews photo message at an airport with a child drinking from a fountain indicates adaptation to project normalcy and stability in the face of disruptions. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics suggests adaptive information warfare targeting UAF morale. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, an adaptive disinformation attempt. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, reflecting an adaptive internal propaganda effort to reinforce state control and historical narratives. Басурин о главном highlights a rating of "War Correspondents" channels, indicating an adaptive focus on managing the information space. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the cancellation of a pro-Russian conductor's performance in Italy, indicating RF information operations are encountering resistance. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video titled "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment efforts and is an adaptive informational attack. Басурин о главном uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, demonstrating an adaptive exploitation of US political discourse. НгП раZVедка reporting on its Telegram channel's ranking indicates an adaptive focus on maximizing information reach and influence. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can leverage to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," demonstrating RF's continued adaptation in legal and information warfare against perceived internal threats. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship Championship element, indicating RF's adaptive use of non-military events to project victimhood or unfairness in international contexts. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued adaptation of demoralizing rhetoric. TASS reports on the situation in Russian airports following restrictions, showing adaptation to public messaging after drone incidents. TASS reports Ukraine's buying tickets to Gergiev's concert to disrupt it, aiming to portray Ukrainian actions negatively. Басурин о главном is adapting its disinformation by claiming Ukrainian cemeteries have run out of space, citing a French publication (Le Monde), attempting to create a veneer of credibility. TASS reports blocking Miramistin production, which could be spun as a response to perceived threats or as a demonstration of internal control. Alex Parker Returns posts photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicating an adaptive information operation to address internal perceptions and potentially deflect criticism. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant, indicating adaptive information warfare to use personal narratives for broader propaganda. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," showing adaptive disinformation to create regional instability narratives. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, is a direct disinformation attempt to undermine Ukrainian defense capabilities and morale. Alex Parker Returns is also attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Shaping Operations on Northern Axis: RF is observed to be establishing a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) and increasing logistical flow into Belgorod Oblast, indicative of shaping operations for a potential large-scale offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) and Colonelcassad claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a significant tactical adaptation by RF to stretch UAF reserves. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, confirming active shaping operations in border regions. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, confirming persistent RF efforts to shape this axis. Олег Синєгубов reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled, consistent with continued shaping operations in border areas. Два майора video shows a soldier conducting casualty evacuation in a wooded area in the Sumy direction, indicating continued localized tactical engagements in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Offensive in Southern Axis: Colonelcassad's claim of a breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, represents a new tactical adaptation of RF ground forces for offensive operations in the South. This, if verified, suggests an attempt to achieve deeper tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Targeting of Western-Supplied Artillery: Colonelcassad's report of a Lancet destroying a UAF M777 howitzer in Shyikivka (Lyman sector) indicates continued RF focus on degrading UAF artillery, particularly Western-supplied systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Joint Military Exercises (External Focus): MoD Russia video and photos of joint military tactical exercises with Uzbekistan in Termez, Uzbekistan, demonstrate RF's continued focus on military cooperation with allies outside the immediate conflict zone. This is a tactical adaptation to maintain and project regional influence and enhance interoperability with Central Asian partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting of UAF Mobile Tactical Bases (New): Kotsnews video shows an FPV drone strike on enemy personnel in a field, which RF claims is a "PVD" (field base or temporary deployment point), indicating a tactical adaptation to target dispersed UAF formations or forward operating bases using FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• RUF:
  • Very High Munitions Consumption (Sustained): The continued, multi-day, high-volume launches of Shaheds (426 confirmed), newly confirmed cruise missiles from Tu-95MS (24 confirmed), and ballistic and hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal), indicates RF's continued capacity to sustain a very high rate of munition expenditure. This suggests robust production or large stockpiles of strategic munitions. The claimed use of FABs also indicates continued aviation munition availability. Rybar's post on "new rockets for helicopters" suggests ongoing R&D and production efforts for aviation munitions. TASS reports RF MoD claims 397 aircraft-type UAVs and one HIMARS missile shot down. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, further confirming high-value munition expenditure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы on Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued aviation munition use. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines, indicating sustained munitions availability. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, indicating continued availability and use of FPV drones for tactical engagements. Alex Parker Returns video explicitly states the scaling of "Geranium" (Shahed) production for frontline use in Sumy Oblast, indicating a significant increase in production capacity and adapted use. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Logistics (Minimal Impact, some vulnerabilities, but recovering): The lifting of airport restrictions in Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod indicates normal functioning of domestic air travel infrastructure, with no apparent military logistical impact. Mishustin's visit to Blagoveshchensk and announced airport modernization further suggests normal internal logistics for high-ranking officials and a focus on long-term infrastructure. However, debris from UAF UAVs causing significant train delays in Rostov Oblast, with impacts projected for two days (confirmed fire at Kamianolomni railway station, now over 50 trains delayed), demonstrates a vulnerability in RF's internal logistical network that can be exploited by UAF deep strikes. Mishustin's statement about 180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs also indicates a focus on bolstering logistics infrastructure. Mishustin's statement about openness to investments from "friendly countries" (TASS) indicates economic stability messaging. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video of burning trucks and an explosion near a bridge after UAV hits in Rostov Oblast confirms logistical disruption. RF milbloggers note continued "transport collapse" at airports, suggesting persistent disruption despite official statements. TASS reports a bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains, impacting local travel, highlighting internal infrastructure vulnerabilities. TASS confirms over 50 trains delayed at Kamianolomni station, Rostov Oblast, due to UAV attack debris, demonstrating continued significant disruption to RF rail logistics. ASTRA videos confirm significant flooding in Moscow, with vehicles stuck, suggesting adverse weather is posing a logistical challenge within the capital. Transport movement blocked in Moscow due to bad weather, indicating continued internal logistical challenges. Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles, suggesting a significant bottleneck for a key logistical artery to Crimea. Mash na Donbasse video on "fishing inspectors and poachers" in DNR suggests potential issues with resource control and potentially illicit supply chains within occupied territories, though not directly military logistics. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды advertising truck bed caps and covers for pickup trucks indicates a potential civilian market, but also a demand that could stem from "volunteer" efforts to equip paramilitary or informal units on the Russian side, potentially filling logistical gaps for light transport. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Новости Москвы video shows flooding inside an elite residential complex in Moscow, further confirming weather-related impacts on urban infrastructure and potentially logistics. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter were introduced at Sheremetyevo airport. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days due to drone attacks, highlighting RF logistical vulnerability to UAF deep strikes. ASTRA video on Kamianolomni railway station damage from UAV confirms persistent logistical disruption. TASS video shows a partially collapsed building facade due to bad weather, indicating responsiveness to civilian infrastructure issues. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea as of 14:00 MSK, indicating ongoing logistical issues for Crimea. Новости Москвы reports trains on the Paveletsky direction and Aeroexpress trains are delayed due to weather, further indicating internal transport disruptions. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, highlighting internal infrastructure vulnerabilities to weather. Оперативний ЗСУ provides more detailed footage of the aftermath of strikes on railway nodes in Likhaia and Kamianolomni, confirming significant disruption to RF logistics. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, indicating continued efforts to recover from UAF drone impacts. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed by more than 2 hours at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo as of 08:00 MSK on July 21, confirming the significant impact of UAF drone operations on RF civilian aviation. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station, Moscow due to rain, confirming continued weather impacts on RF internal transport. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, indicating a recovery effort for disrupted logistics. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather. ТАСС reports Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, with restrictions on transactions since July 20, indicating an impact of international sanctions on Russian financial services and civilian economic activity. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to halve the cost of food in airports if operations are restricted for more than 3 hours, indicating that the RF government is acknowledging and attempting to mitigate the logistical impact of drone attacks on civilian life, which suggests a degree of vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Internal Incidents: Reports of a fire on a coal conveyor in Sakhalin and 5 fatalities in an Orenburg fire are likely unrelated to the conflict but indicate ongoing internal challenges for RF. Power outages in Irkutsk Oblast impacting 40k residents, and a traffic accident with 13 fatalities in Yakutia (now a criminal case), while non-military, suggest domestic infrastructure and safety challenges for RF. Recent reports of flooding in Moscow (Новости Москвы, TASS video) also suggest internal infrastructure challenges. TASS provides video of flooded pedestrian tunnel at Pavshino station (MCD-2) in Moscow, confirming continued internal infrastructure challenges due to heavy rain. TASS reports a large seizure of jewelry (37kg, 7 million rubles) at Domodedovo airport from a Bahrain passenger, suggesting ongoing civilian economic activity and potential illicit flows, but no direct military relevance. TASS photos confirm flooding on Durova Street in Moscow. TASS reports a gas explosion and fire in a multi-story building in Novorossiysk, indicating an internal incident with potential for civilian casualties and emergency response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast, while not directly intelligence-related, but could be related to the "Hero of the SVO" narrative and impact public perception of returning soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former Ukrainian official, was found dead in a pool in Spain. ТАСС reports at least 20 people injured in Bangladesh Air Force plane crash, a non-military incident but demonstrating the potential for accidents. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, indicating ongoing internal security and resource allocation to address them. ТАСС reports the Spanish Civil Guard found nothing suspicious in the death of former Ukrainian Interior Ministry official Ihor Hrushevsky, a non-military internal incident with potential for propaganda exploitation. Север.Реалии reports a war participant who killed a girl is being expelled from a university in St. Petersburg, indicating social implications of returning soldiers and internal legal processes. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov for two additional articles of the Russian Criminal Code. ТАСС reports Russian citizens were not among the dead or injured in the Bangladesh Air Force plane crash, indicating internal focus on citizen welfare. TASS reports police are searching for a man driving a scooter with a girl on his shoulders in Samara, a civilian incident. ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has liquidated Baburin's party "Russian All-People's Union" via court order, indicating continued internal political consolidation. Басурин о главном reports FSB detained the head of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, for embezzlement of over 1 billion rubles, indicating continued internal anti-corruption efforts. ТАСС reports the death of Gennady Starunov, a former teacher who interacted with Putin, stating he died in the "special operation," confirming a high-profile RF casualty and a potential morale impact internally. TASS reports Miramistin production blocked due to court restrictions, indicating internal economic disruptions affecting civilian goods. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with numerous graves, likely of soldiers, indicates significant RF military losses, impacting sustainment of personnel. ТАСС photo shows a proposal to ban feeding stray animals near apartment buildings, a civilian internal issue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF:
  • Air Defense Munitions Strain (CRITICAL - EXTREME & NATIONWIDE, Including Hypersonic Threat): The sustained high-volume, multi-platform attacks (426 UAVs and 24 missiles), particularly the cruise missiles from Tu-95MS (now deep into western Ukraine), ballistic and hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal), continue to place unprecedented and critical strain on UAF air defense munitions stockpiles. The claimed three Kinzhal impacts on Kyiv will exacerbate this strain significantly. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones (Leleky, Hory, Sharks, FlyEye), as stated by Serhiy "Flash", indicating a potential degradation in UAF ISR capabilities due to RF counter-drone measures or increased RF AD effectiveness, which could impact UAF operational awareness and targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics Corridors (Increased Risk): The deliberate targeting of Western and Central Ukrainian oblasts (Lviv, Lutsk, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi) which contain critical rail and road logistics hubs indicates RF intent to interdict Western military aid supply lines. Confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure in these areas highlights the increased risk to logistics. РБК-Україна photos show French Foreign Minister visiting Kyiv strike sites, confirming damage to civilian structures that could be indicative of logistics impact. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store near Lukyanivska metro station, indicating potential disruptions to local supply chains or security issues following attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Frontline Logistics (Crowdfunding Reliance): Requests for donations for drones and Starlink from RF frontline units (e.g., 7th Airborne Division) indicate that some RF units continue to rely on crowdfunding for critical, technically advanced equipment, which could suggest gaps in formal RF logistical support for specific technologies or units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) UAF National Guard "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment" also points to localized resource constraints on the UAF side. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Nikolaevsky Vanek video shows Spartan brigade receiving DJI Matrice 4T drones from donations, indicating continued reliance on external funding for tactical equipment. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА channel seeks donations for a "big sum," indicating continued crowdfunding for RF units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative accumulating €2.5 million for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, highlighting the role of international crowdfunding for heavy weaponry. Zelenskiy / Official video and text on increasing domestic weapons production and auditing international agreements points to a critical focus on streamlining and securing future logistics and supply chains for UAF. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, indicating a focus on optimizing supply chains. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requires REB means for combat missions and safe logistics, indicating specific equipment requirements. STERNENKO crowdfunding for "Shahedorez" (Shahed cutter) indicates specific equipment needs. РБК-Україна reports UK supplied 50,000 drones to Ukraine since March, highlighting the reliance on international supplies for critical equipment. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine invested over $20 billion in its own defense industry over two years, per Umerov. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting. This is a critical and immediate resource requirement. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support against current needs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows RF soldiers appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, suggesting persistent logistical gaps on the RF side for specific high-tech equipment. РБК-Україна reports an urgent fundraiser for drones for the UAF 32nd Steel Brigade. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports the systemic support to Kharkiv defenders, including the transfer of 'Vampire' drones and military trucks, indicating ongoing efforts to meet frontline logistical needs. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian intelligence claims that the largest Russian banks are preparing for a debt crisis, potentially impacting RF's financial sustainment of the war. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating a positive development for domestic logistics and sustainment. Два майора photo message "Extremely necessary project in the conditions of the SVO" with an image of ski trails, suggests internal Russian efforts to project normalcy and internal stability, diverting resources from military logistics, or an attempt to use civilian infrastructure as a subtle propaganda tool during wartime. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of a significant quantity of drones (reconnaissance and FPV), charging stations, and communication equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front. This indicates ongoing support and replenishment of UAF tactical assets. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports attacks on Nikopol district with artillery, MLRS, and FPV drones, indicating continued high rate of munition expenditure by RF, thus high consumption of UAF defensive munitions. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continued participation in financing Ukrainian defense industry through the "Danish model", indicating consistent and specialized international financial support for UAF armored capabilities and domestic production. ТАСС reports that Volodin has instructed to develop amendments to legislation on prohibiting the purchase of military uniforms abroad, indicating a strategic effort to enhance Russian domestic military production and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains, which could impact global markets for military goods and indicate a long-term sustainment strategy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• RUF:
  • Centralized Strategic C2 (Highly Effective & Adaptive): The coordinated launches of Tu-95MS missiles and massed Shahed waves across multiple axes, including the significant new extension into Western Ukraine, coupled with adaptive trajectory changes and ballistic/hypersonic missile re-engagement, demonstrate highly effective, centralized strategic C2 for deep operations. Their rapid adaptation of information operations also confirms effective C2 in the information domain. RF Ministry of Defense releasing video of claimed ground operations (Popov Yar, UAF equipment losses) and drone intercept claims (TASS, ASTRA) indicates centralized control over information dissemination. "Воин DV" post supports this, indicating ongoing ground and air support for advances in the East. Zvиздец Мангусту's detailed analysis of RF ground operations demonstrates centralized planning for the Pokrovsk direction. MoD Russia's detailed video with servicemen on the claimed liberation of Popov Yar suggests centralized control over tactical narrative and media dissemination. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, indicating effective C2 in tactical targeting. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, suggesting established C2 for tactical drone operations. ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on various international relations topics suggest a centralized and coordinated diplomatic messaging C2. ТАСС reports Pudov's statement on migrant language requirements indicates coordinated C2 in internal policy. Два майора video on the detention of a Ukrainian intelligence agent demonstrates effective C2 in internal counter-intelligence operations. Воин DV video showing drone operators bombing "enemy holes" demonstrates effective C2 for tactical drone employment. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, indicating coordinated ground operations C2. Colonelcassad's video showcasing a reconnaissance UGV indicates an emerging C2 capability for unmanned ground systems. ТАСС reports new Russian decree for foreign vessels entering Russian seaports requires FSB consent, indicating centralized control over maritime security. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming highly effective and centralized strategic C2 for high-value targets. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows coordinated drone reconnaissance and attacks in Pokrovsk, indicating effective tactical C2 for ground operations. Воин DV video showing a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform indicates effective C2 for counter-UGV operations. Народная милиция ДНР channel claims to show "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts," suggests effective C2 for tactical intelligence and targeting. TASS video claims RF forces destroyed two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, confirming effective C2 for targeted engagements. Воин DV reporting on the Southern-Donetsk direction with details on enemy attempts to regain lost positions indicates effective C2 in managing complex defensive and counter-offensive operations. Colonelcassad claiming a breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka indicates effective offensive C2 in the Southern axis. Басурин о главном video confirms FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg who was collecting information on RF defense enterprises, reinforcing effective counter-intelligence C2. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold, indicating effective C2 for tactical ground operations. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense, confirming continued effective C2 for air-to-ground precision strikes. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) video of FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg confirms effective C2 for internal counter-intelligence. Colonelcassad's report of a Lancet destroying a UAF M777 howitzer demonstrates effective C2 in coordinating and executing targeted strikes against UAF artillery assets. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, confirming effective tactical C2 for drone operations and targeting. MoD Russia video and photos of joint military tactical exercises with Uzbekistan demonstrate effective C2 for international military cooperation and projection of influence. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating effective C2 for localized ground offensives. Kotsnews video shows an FPV drone strike on enemy personnel in a field, which RF claims is a "PVD," confirming effective tactical C2 for drone operations and targeting of small UAF formations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal C2: The rapid lifting of flight restrictions in Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod airports and Mishustin's public statements indicate effective internal C2 for civil aviation management and information dissemination. High-level domestic travel by Mishustin further suggests normal internal C2 for government functions. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter were introduced at Sheremetyevo airport, and then lifted, indicating adaptive C2 for civil aviation management under threat conditions. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days, suggesting that while C2 is adaptive, the volume of UAF drone attacks tests its limits. TASS video shows a partially collapsed building facade due to bad weather, indicating responsiveness to civilian infrastructure issues. ТАСС reports Putin commented on birth rates, indicating C2 over internal social policies. ТАСС reports FSB detained a top manager of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, confirming effective internal security C2. ТАСС reports 437 million rubles will be collected from the former head of Kirovsky and Moskovsky districts of Kazan, Sergei Mironov and his relatives, indicating effective C2 in internal legal processes. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, indicating effective C2 for civil aviation recovery. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed by more than 2 hours at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo as of 08:00 MSK on July 21, indicating that while UAF actions cause disruption, RF C2 is attempting to manage and report. TASS reports a new bill on free higher education for SVO participants, indicating effective C2 in social policy implementation related to the conflict. ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has liquidated Baburin's party "Russian All-People's Union" via court order, indicating effective internal C2 for political consolidation. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, indicating effective C2 for logistics recovery. Басурин о главном reports FSB detained the head of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, for embezzlement, demonstrating effective internal C2 for anti-corruption operations. TASS provides an assessment of the situation in Russian airports, showing effective C2 in information dissemination regarding civilian aviation. TASS reports Miramistin production blocked, indicating C2 over internal industries. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, indicating C2 over internal policy and legal frameworks. TASS reports the military court will begin hearing the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case on August 4, demonstrating effective internal C2 in the judicial system for high-profile cases. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that additional social support measures will be available for veterans of military operations, indicating effective C2 in implementing social welfare policies for military personnel. TASS reports that Volodin has instructed to develop amendments to legislation on prohibiting the purchase of military uniforms abroad, indicating effective C2 for strategic domestic production and supply chain security for the armed forces. TASS reports a proposal to halve the cost of food in airports if operations are restricted for more than 3 hours, indicating effective C2 in responding to and mitigating the impact of external threats on civilian life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF:
  • Highly Effective Air Defense C2 (Strained but Resilient): UAF AD demonstrates highly effective C2 in rapid detection, tracking, and public warning of complex, multi-speed, multi-vector threats (426 UAVs and 24 missiles) across the entire country, including the Tu-95MS missile launches, numerous inbound UAVs, and ballistic/hypersonic missile threats. Continued real-time reporting from AFU and regional administrations on missile and UAV movements and AD activity confirms robust and resilient UAF C2 for air defense operations despite extreme pressure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reporting all ballistic missile threats lifted and Николаевский Ванёк confirming AD clear demonstrates effective C2 and timely information dissemination. Оперативний ЗСУ video on "USF Today" highlighting destruction of RF AD systems and discussion on NATO security doctrines, indicates high C2 effectiveness in drone warfare and strategic thinking. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, indicating highly effective C2 for international military aid procurement. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, confirming the continued urgent need. Zelenskiy / Official discusses drone production and procurement of interceptor drones, indicating high readiness and adaptive capabilities. Олексій Білошицький reports "Predator" brigade's AD destroyed three enemy UAVs (ZALA, Orlan-10, Molniya-2), demonstrating effective tactical AD C2. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued high readiness to respond to persistent aerial threats. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, confirming ongoing ISR efforts and operational activity from Ukrainian intelligence. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, indicating immediate enhancement of AD readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming effective C2 in international aid procurement. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports detailed attacks on Nikopol district with various weapons and photographic evidence of damage, indicating effective regional C2 for reporting and damage assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security C2: The SBU/OGP joint operation against alleged Russian influence on NABU (NABU confirms investigative actions) indicates robust internal security C2 aimed at preventing hybrid warfare infiltration. Multiple Ukrainian sources (OPG, Nikolaevsky Vanok, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraine, Operatyvnyi ZSU) confirming the coordinated detention of a senior NABU detective on suspicion of collaboration with RF illustrates effective inter-agency coordination for internal security. OGP's release of photo/video evidence regarding the detention of a high-ranking individual suspected of being an FSB agent and influencing NABU is a significant success in countering RF hybrid warfare and internal subversion. РБК-Україна reports "at least 70 searches" regarding NABU employees, further confirming extensive and coordinated internal security operations. Оперативний ЗСУ video of the exposed MP Fedir Khristenko as an FSB agent is a high-profile success. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU and OGP exposed an acting Ukrainian People's Deputy working for Russia, who had significant influence on NABU's activities, including facilitating illegal departures and influencing investigations, strongly supporting the "Counter-Hybrid Warfare" narrative. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a court arrested a Kyiv prosecutor in a fatal drunk driving accident, demonstrating internal legal successes. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an announcement about the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine," indicating C2 in addressing corruption or inefficiency. Оперативний ЗСУ reports suspicion served to the General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment, confirming ongoing anti-corruption C2. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU initiated a comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). РБК-Україна reports SBU denies gaining access to NABU and SAP cases, indicating ongoing internal complexities but also a structured response. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the General Director of "Rostec" and an assistant to the leadership of the aggressor state have been notified of suspicion, indicating effective C2 in pursuing legal action against high-level Russian officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the detention of a NABU elite unit "D-2" employee in Kyiv, suspected of spying for Russian special services, further emphasizing effective C2 for counter-intelligence. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU raids on NABU structures continue, bolstering the narrative of a proactive fight against internal threats. President Zelenskyy also emphasized the need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable for the war, including work on a Special Tribunal and the need for clarity and specific timelines for its launch. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka after the recent attacks, demonstrating effective C2 in public information and security response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Government Reorganization C2: The Cabinet of Ministers officially reorganized and closed ministries indicates a continued ability to adapt and reform governance structures during wartime. The merging of Ministry of Strategic Industry with Ministry of Defense indicates effective wartime adaptation and streamlining of defense procurement and production under centralized military C2. Zelenskyy's meeting with ministers, ambassador appointments, and setting of diplomatic priorities confirms strong civilian-military coordination and effective C2 for strategic foreign policy. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's dissemination of NATO common funding plan information suggests effective strategic communication and coordination with international partners. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy has dismissed and appointed new ambassadors, indicating continued effective C2 in diplomatic restructuring. Zelenskiy / Official video and text emphasize increasing domestic weapons production and auditing international agreements, demonstrating strong C2 for strategic defense planning and resource management. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, demonstrating effective C2 in strategic resource management. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov appointed new commander of UAF Ground Forces, indicating effective C2 in military leadership appointments. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on diplomatic meetings in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating effective C2 in coordinating high-level visits during wartime. STERNENKO and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm Brig. Gen. Hennadiy Shapovalov as the new commander of UAF Ground Forces, demonstrating effective C2 in military leadership changes. РБК-Україна video on patrol police rescuing people after Kyiv shelling indicates effective C2 for emergency response. Zelenskiy / Official discusses drone production, procurement, and the need for interceptor drones, indicating effective C2 for adapting to RF threats and prioritizing defense industry. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports the systemic support to Kharkiv defenders, including the transfer of 'Vampire' drones and military trucks, indicating effective C2 for resource allocation and military support at the regional level. STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy's meeting with French Foreign Minister Barrot and focus on the current situation and further cooperation, demonstrating effective high-level diplomatic C2. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating a critical development for UAF domestic production capabilities. President Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of negotiations with RF in Istanbul, indicating effective diplomatic C2. Zelenskyy spoke to Ukrainian diplomats, outlining the main tasks of diplomacy: protecting Ukrainian life in Ukraine and inflicting pain on Russia. He emphasized constant search for new formats for cooperation and highlighted the Danish and Czech models for artillery, and French Mirage aviation support. Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries, demonstrating effective diplomatic C2. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine plans to open four new embassies by the end of the year, demonstrating effective C2 for expanding diplomatic presence and influence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Lithuania will help Ukraine return prisoners of war and abducted children from Russia, as stated by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys, indicating effective C2 in coordinating international humanitarian efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Humanitarian Efforts C2: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War's meeting with families of servicemen held in Perm Krai, Russia, indicates effective C2 for addressing the humanitarian crisis of POWs and supporting their families. This body plays a critical role in managing sensitive information and providing support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Posture: UAF is operating at maximum defensive posture across all air defense sectors nationwide. Ground forces maintain established defensive lines in the East and maintain heightened alert on the Northern Axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Readiness:
  • Air Defense: At peak readiness and fully engaged against a complex, high-volume RF aerial assault, including the Kinzhal. The sustained engagement of numerous Shaheds on Kyiv and cruise missiles across various Oblasts, now including far-western regions, demonstrates continuous high readiness. UAF AD successfully engaged and destroyed 344 of 623 total aerial targets. Southern Defense Forces claim 18 Shaheds destroyed. UAF AF reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. This confirms continued high readiness and effectiveness against the sheer volume of attacks. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all ballistic missile threats have been lifted and Николаевский Ванёк reports AD clear, indicating continued high readiness and effective response. Оперативний ЗСУ video "USF Today" highlights the destruction of RF AD systems (Strela, Buk) by the 14th Drone Regiment, showcasing high readiness and effectiveness in counter-AD operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, indicating a proactive effort to sustain and enhance AD readiness. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, underscoring the critical need to maintain this readiness. Zelenskiy / Official discusses drone production and procurement of interceptor drones, indicating high readiness and adaptive capabilities. Олексій Білошицький reports "Predator" brigade's AD destroyed three enemy UAVs (ZALA, Orlan-10, Molniya-2), demonstrating ongoing tactical AD readiness and effectiveness. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued high readiness to respond to persistent aerial threats. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, confirming high readiness for ISR operations. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, indicating immediate enhancement of AD readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming this critical reinforcement and enhancing AD readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Emergency Services: Emergency services (medical, fire, rescue) are maintaining high readiness in all major urban centers, particularly Kyiv, and now in Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and other western areas. Zelenskyy's video message confirms ongoing rescue and emergency work across multiple oblasts, illustrating sustained readiness. KMVA video/photos showing firefighters actively engaged at damaged residential buildings in Kyiv confirm high readiness and rapid response capability. РБК-Україна reports relevant services have gone to the explosion site in Kropyvnytskyi district, indicating continued readiness and rapid response. ASTRA photo and video messages show firefighters responding to damaged residential buildings in Kyiv, confirming active emergency services readiness. РБК-Україна video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling, confirming the high readiness and active engagement of emergency and security services. Olexander Vilkul, head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, provides photo messages of water supply network modernization, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain readiness of critical civilian infrastructure. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka, suggesting rapid response to maintain order and public confidence after attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Overall: Readiness remains high but is under extreme and potentially unsustainable pressure due to the continuous, nationwide aerial attacks and severe AD munition consumption. Zelenskiy / Official video and text emphasize the need for a "commensurate response" to Russian strikes, signaling a high state of readiness and determination to counter offensive actions. DeepState video discusses Ukraine's drone forces, highlighting high readiness and effectiveness, even with civilian involvement in training, emphasizing their cost-effectiveness. Zelenskiy / Official discusses drone production and procurement, including interceptor drones, showing a proactive approach to maintaining readiness against RF aerial threats. Oleg Synegubov's video on supporting Kharkiv defenders with drones and vehicles demonstrates ongoing efforts to maintain frontline readiness and resupply. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, confirming high readiness for ISR operations. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of drones and equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued efforts to enhance UAF readiness. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of 61st OMBr tank crews training, demonstrating ongoing efforts to maintain high readiness and combat proficiency. STERNENKO video of Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk highlights high ground force readiness and effectiveness in defending against sustained assaults. Олександр Вілкул's briefing on the situation in Kryvyi Rih indicates high readiness and command oversight at the local level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Successes:
  • Active Air Defense Engagements & Early Warnings (Nationwide & Adaptive): UAF AD demonstrates continuous success in tracking and warning of incoming missiles and UAVs across almost the entire country. Continued AD operations in Kyiv (Podil) and against cruise missiles across various Oblasts (Chernivtsi, etc.) indicate ongoing success in mitigating RF aerial attacks, despite high volume. The prompt reporting of trajectory changes aids AD effectiveness. Interception of three Shaheds approaching Ivano-Frankivsk and "minus" for Shaheds on Kyiv (Nikolaevsky Vanyok) confirms ongoing AD effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 7 UAVs. UAF AF reports 344 of 623 aerial targets destroyed, indicating significant interception success against a massive barrage. Southern Defense Forces claim 18 Shaheds destroyed. UAF AF confirms 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. This indicates significant success in degrading RF drone attacks. Zelenskyy's video confirms drone interceptions in Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kherson Oblasts. PPO working on enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all ballistic missile threats have been lifted and Николаевский Ванёк reports AD clear, confirming successful AD operations. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows FPV drone pilots destroying an enemy UAV, indicating successful counter-drone operations. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone footage of successful artillery strikes by UAF 44th Artillery Brigade targeting a Russian 2A65 Msta-B (Russian flag visible), confirming successful counter-battery fire. Zelenskiy / Official discusses the successful interception of drones and the need for more interceptor drones, reinforcing AD successes. Олексій Білошицький reports "Predator" brigade's AD destroyed three enemy UAVs (ZALA, Orlan-10, Molniya-2), demonstrating ongoing tactical AD readiness and effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow UAV Interceptions (Escalated Impact): RF reports of 18-23 UAVs destroyed over Moscow (Два майора, TASS, ASTRA), and a total of 74 UAVs destroyed over RF territory (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z, AV БогомаZ reports 10 in Bryansk), indicate continued UAF capability to project force into RF territory, forcing RF to divert AD resources to homeland defense. The confirmed disruption to railway traffic in Rostov Oblast due to UAV debris (Kamianolomni station fire confirmed by Шеф Hayabusa, Оперативний ЗСУ) demonstrates kinetic effects and logistical disruption within RF territory, with reports of up to two days of schedule changes (now over 50 trains delayed per TASS). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides visual evidence of fires in Rostov and Moscow Oblasts from UAV hits. Bbutusov Plus channel mocks Russian anti-drone protection. ASTRA confirms over 50 trains delayed in Rostov Oblast due to UAV attack in Kamianolomni station, highlighting persistent and expanding disruption within RF territory. AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast, confirming continued UAF drone effectiveness over RF territory. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter at Sheremetyevo airport due to a drone threat, confirming UAF's continued ability to disrupt Russian air operations. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days due to drone attacks, underscoring continued UAF success in disrupting RF civilian air operations. ASTRA video on Kamianolomni railway station damage from UAV provides further visual evidence of successful UAF deep strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ provides more detailed footage of the aftermath of strikes on railway nodes in Likhaia and Kamianolomni, confirming successful disruption to RF logistics. TASS reports an additional 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions (including 5 over Moscow) between 12:20 and 15:00, confirming continued UAF deep strike attempts and RF AD engagement. AV БогомаZ reports another 6 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, reinforcing continued UAF deep strike effectiveness. TASS reports an additional UAV shot down over Moscow. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a residential building on fire in Ivanteievka, Moscow region, after RF AD shot down a UAV, confirming a successful UAF drone strike that resulted in kinetic effects on Russian territory, despite RF interception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Counter-Influence Operations: SBU and OGP conducting a special operation to neutralize Russian influence within Ukrainian institutions (NABU confirms investigative actions) indicates proactive measures against hybrid threats. Detention of NABU detective head suspected of aiding RF confirmed by multiple sources, solidifying this as a successful internal security operation. OGP's public announcement and evidence regarding the detention of a high-ranking individual suspected of being an FSB agent and influencing NABU is a significant success in countering RF hybrid warfare and internal subversion. РБК-Україна reports "at least 70 searches" regarding NABU employees, reinforcing UAF's proactive stance against internal subversion. Оперативний ЗСУ video of the exposed MP Fedir Khristenko as an FSB agent is a high-profile success. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU and OGP exposed an acting Ukrainian People's Deputy working for Russia, who had significant influence on NABU's activities, including facilitating illegal departures and influencing investigations, strongly supporting the "Counter-Hybrid Warfare" narrative. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a court arrested a Kyiv prosecutor in a fatal drunk driving accident, demonstrating internal legal successes. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an announcement about the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine," potentially indicating success in addressing internal corruption or inefficiency. Оперативний ЗСУ reports suspicion served to the General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment, confirming a continued focus on anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU initiated a comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). РБК-Україна reports SBU denies gaining access to NABU and SAP cases, controlling the narrative on internal security. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the General Director of "Rostec" and an assistant to the leadership of the aggressor state have been notified of suspicion, confirming successful prosecution of high-level Russian officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the detention of a NABU elite unit "D-2" employee in Kyiv, suspected of spying for Russian special services, indicating continued counter-intelligence successes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU raids on NABU structures continue, bolstering the narrative of a proactive fight against internal threats. Zelenskyy's address to diplomats emphasized efforts to hold Russia accountable through legal architecture and the creation of a Special Tribunal, indicating successes in building international legal frameworks. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka, indicating successful maintenance of order after the attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Daily RF Personnel Losses: UAF General Staff reports significant RF personnel losses (+1170) and equipment destruction as of 21 JUL 25. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claims Ukrainian National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators destroyed nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued success in inflicting RF personnel losses. STERNENKO video shows a drone strike on 7 Russian personnel, resulting in an explosion and fire, likely inflicting casualties, demonstrating continued UAF tactical success. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows heavily burned bodies of Russian soldiers and damaged vehicles, explicitly highlighting RF losses and the brutality of the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ video claims SSO eliminated a group of Russians attempting to set up a new position, indicating continued success in inflicting RF casualties and disrupting their tactical plans. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video claims a Russian occupier shot himself upon seeing a drone, indicating extreme psychological pressure on RF personnel from UAF drone operations. Оперативний ЗСУ video "USF Today" details destruction of Russian air defense systems by 14th Drone Regiment, confirming successful targeting of valuable RF assets. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows FPV drone strike on a Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle, resulting in an explosion and secondary detonations, confirming effective Ukrainian drone operations inflicting RF personnel and equipment losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of tactical engagements against enemy personnel and positions, highlighting successful UAF drone operations and inflicted casualties. Два майора video shows a soldier conducting casualty evacuation in Sumy Oblast, indicating UAF forces are causing casualties, forcing RF to evacuate personnel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video details effective and emotional artillery work by the UDA special purpose unit, claiming successful targeting of RF positions, which implies infliction of RF casualties and equipment losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Successful Defense in Lyman: UDF forces successfully repelled a company-sized armored assault in Lyman, inflicting significant losses on RF equipment. Liveuamap Source reports clashes at Lyman direction, indicating continued UAF defense. Colonelcassad's report of a Lancet destroying a UAF M777 howitzer in Shyikivka suggests a localized tactical setback for UAF in that specific area, but the broader defense in Lyman continues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Targeting of North Korean MLRS: The 1st Brigade of the National Guard confirmed the destruction of a rare North Korean 107-mm Type 75 MLRS in the Kupyansk sector, degrading RF fire support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Drone Effectiveness: UDF drone units continue to successfully target and destroy RF armored vehicles, artillery, and personnel along the FLOT. Kotsnews video shows precise fire damage against RF infantry. STERNENKO's FPV drone videos show destruction of RF vehicles and personnel, serving to counter RF narratives of tactical success and highlight RF losses. РБК-Україна video shows UAF destroying Russian artillery in Zaporizhzhia direction. Nikolaevsky Vanek video shows Spartan brigade receiving DJI Matrice 4T drones, stating they are for reconnaissance and striking the enemy, indicating continued tactical success with drone usage. DeepState video discusses Ukraine's drone forces, highlighting their effectiveness and strategic importance, even with civilian involvement in training, confirming ongoing successes in drone warfare. Zelenskiy / Official discusses the need for interceptor drones and increased drone production, indicating a focus on enhancing this successful capability. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones for active operations, confirming continued UAF drone effectiveness in ISR. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of drones (reconnaissance and FPV) and related equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued success in equipping UAF drone units. Сили оборони Півдня України video demonstrates effective reconnaissance and targeting by UAF drone operators, highlighting successful ISR and potential for kinetic effects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Government Reorganization: The Cabinet of Ministers officially merged the Ministry of Strategic Industry with the Ministry of Defense, indicating successful administrative streamlining for wartime efficiency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Diplomatic Appointments: President Zelenskyy's appointment of 16 new ambassadors and setting of diplomatic priorities demonstrates successful adaptation and strengthening of the diplomatic corps. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy appointed 16 ambassadors after a meeting with Sybiha, confirming successful diplomatic strengthening. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy has dismissed and appointed new ambassadors, further solidifying successful diplomatic restructuring. Zelenskiy / Official video highlights meeting with heads of Ukrainian embassies and defining key priorities for diplomacy, reinforcing this success. Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries, indicating a diplomatic success. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine plans to open four new embassies by the end of the year, indicating a successful strategic expansion of diplomatic influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Support: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative "Gift for Putin" which accumulated nearly €2.5 million for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, indicating successful international fundraising efforts for material support. РБК-Україна reports Trump announced new plan for large-scale NATO weapons supplies to Ukraine, supported by Britain, indicating high-level political support for continued military aid. РБК-Україна reports Germany will help with 5 Patriot systems for Ukraine, per Pistorius and Heggset, a major diplomatic success for AD. STERNENKO reports Ramstein meeting underway with 52 countries, indicating continued robust international support. РБК-Україна reports UK has supplied 50,000 drones to Ukraine since March, showing significant material support. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition, confirming a critical diplomatic and military success. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support against current needs. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, reinforcing the message of critical international support requirements. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Danish defense company Terma announced strategic partnership with Ukrainian tech company Odd Systems, indicating continued international industrial cooperation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the US for the first time since 2008 deployed tactical nuclear weapons in the UK, a significant strategic development that strengthens NATO deterrence. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating successful diplomatic and industrial cooperation for UAF. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil, if the US does so, indicating efforts to further constrain RF's financial resources, which indirectly benefits UAF. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, a significant and immediate reinforcement of international support. ASTRA reports the Ramstein meeting has started, and Ukraine stated it needs $6 billion by the end of the year, highlighting the transparency and effectiveness of Ukraine's communication with partners. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of negotiations with RF in Istanbul, which can be seen as a diplomatic success for Ukraine. Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries, demonstrating successful diplomatic expansion. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides an infographic summarizing the key outcomes of the 29th Ramstein meeting, highlighting successful acquisition of ammunition and funds for drones, confirming strong international material support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming a major diplomatic and material success. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Lithuania will help Ukraine return prisoners of war and abducted children from Russia, as stated by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys, indicating a successful diplomatic initiative focused on humanitarian issues. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continued participation in financing Ukrainian defense industry, indicating consistent and specialized international financial support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Repelled RF Ground Assaults: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, confirming significant UAF defensive successes on the Northern Axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sports Achievements: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights a Zaporizhzhia taekwondo fighter winning the World Universiade, aiming to boost morale through non-military achievements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • CRITICAL Massed Aerial Attack (Sustained & NATIONAL Scope, Multi-Wave, Western Expansion, Hypersonic Threat, Cluster Munition Use, NEW KINZHAL ON KYIV): Ukraine is experiencing a continuous, unprecedented multi-vector, high-volume RF aerial assault, now including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles deep into central and significantly western Ukraine, ballistic missiles on Kyiv, and a Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk and now Kyiv. Confirmed explosions and fires in Kyiv's Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts, along with confirmed damage to a metro station entrance (Lukyanivska) and a warehouse fire in Solomianskyi district, represent ongoing significant setbacks for civilian protection and infrastructure. The confirmed fatality in Kyiv and injuries (now 9) are severe setbacks. Confirmed explosions and preliminary reports of damage and injuries (now 4) in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast represent a new significant setback in a previously less targeted region, particularly due to the Kinzhal strike. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district sustained 12 UAV strikes, with visual evidence of damage. New confirmed fatalities (2) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (2) in Dnipropetrovsk, (4) in Sloviansk, and (4) in Chernivtsi. Confirmed kindergarten fire in Kyiv and Lviv. Damage to Lviv Polytechnic university. Damage to 20 private residential buildings in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. PS ZSU spokesman Ihnat reports over fifteen direct hits on various objects in Kyiv overnight, indicating extensive damage across the capital. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms smoke and damage inside Lukyanivska metro station. ASTRA reports 7 injured from Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat, indicating new areas affected by kinetic impacts. STERNENKO confirms Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles, which will contribute to widespread public fear. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports a tractor driver was blown up by a mine in a field in Balakliia community, which indicates civilian casualties from unexploded ordnance or mines. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports at least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv city, were affected by enemy strikes over the past week, confirming widespread damage and setbacks. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, indicating a setback for civilian infrastructure. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Kyiv increased to nine, intensifying public concern. ASTRA photos and videos show significant damage to residential buildings in Kyiv from the attack, confirming continued civilian infrastructure setbacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store near Lukyanivska metro station, indicating a secondary setback following the attack. ТАСС video shows a burning pickup truck in the special operation zone after being attacked by three drones, indicating the destruction of a UAF asset or asset in UAF-controlled territory. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" confirms the scale of the setback. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes and explosions over a city, and damage to a multi-story building, underscoring civilian and infrastructure setbacks. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, which will significantly exacerbate public fear and anxiety in the capital. РБК-Україна video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling illustrates the scale of the setback for civilian safety. Colonelcassad also claims a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv, citing a recent visit by US Special Envoy Kit Kellogg, which if confirmed, would be a setback for domestic defense production. Colonelcassad's claim of a missile strike on a Black Sea gas platform represents a potential setback for maritime infrastructure. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. Oleg Sinegubov reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled by occupiers, indicating continued localized setbacks in the East. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides photos of civilian damage, confirming continued RF terror on civilians and the resulting setbacks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows initial minutes after a Shahed strike in Lukyanivka, Kyiv, with people evacuating and debris, reinforcing the immediate and significant impact on civilians and infrastructure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports attacks on Nikopol district with artillery, MLRS, and FPV drones, and provides multiple photos of damaged structures (residential, administrative, power lines), confirming significant civilian and infrastructure setbacks in the region. Alex Parker Returns photo message claims a Member of Parliament's apartment in Kyiv was destroyed near the Artem factory, indicating a setback for Ukrainian civil society and potentially confirming RF targeting of military-industrial complex proximity to civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Psychological Operations Impact: RF's immediate and aggressive information operations, including sarcastic claims about Vasylkiv airfield and mocking UAF AD, and claims of AD exhaustion, are designed to undermine UAF morale and confidence. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics being "bite and gnaw" suggests a negative portrayal. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claiming Ukraine has run out of cemetery space is a significant psychological setback if widely believed. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society and negatively influence prisoner exchange outcomes, highlighting the ongoing psychological warfare setback. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment efforts, potentially impacting morale. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which, while a Ukrainian action, will be spun by RF to portray Ukraine negatively, creating a setback in the information domain. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's continued suppression of independent media and control of the information space, which could limit external information for Ukraine. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, indicating RF's sensitivity to perceived international bias and desire to control narrative in non-military spheres. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries highlights a persistent psychological operations setback for UAF. Alex Parker Returns photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicates an RF attempt to deflect criticism and stir confusion, which is a setback for Ukraine's efforts to portray RF as a singular fascist entity. ТАСС reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant, indicating a setback in the information domain for Ukraine as it provides RF with propaganda material. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," which is a setback for Ukraine as it attempts to sow regional instability and divert attention. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, directly targets Ukrainian morale and confidence in their defense capabilities, representing a significant psychological setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Metro Operations Disruption: Temporary closure of sections of Kyiv's red metro line and Lukyanivska station (now fully reopened) is a direct disruption to civilian life and transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Logistics Hub Damage: Confirmed damage to infrastructure in Lviv, Lutsk, Chernivtsi, and Khmelnytskyi, key Western logistics hubs, indicates successful RF interdiction attempts against Western aid. РБК-Україна photos show French Foreign Minister visiting Kyiv strike sites, confirming damage to civilian structures that could be indicative of logistics impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Force Setbacks in Donetsk Oblast: DeepState reports RF advances in Vilne Pole, Andriivka, Popovy Yar, and three other villages in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized territorial losses. MoD Russia's video claims further details on the liberation of Popov Yar, suggesting continued UAF ground setbacks in that area. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) and Colonelcassad claim a new RF front opened in Kharkiv Oblast, intended to stretch UAF reserves, which if successful, would represent a significant setback in force posture. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in the vicinity of Belaya Gora in the Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings, and claims its capture is significant for logistics and communications to Kostiantynivka, suggesting a tactical setback in the region. Colonelcassad shares map showing changes over past 24 hours, indicating continued positional changes on the front line, which could include setbacks. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction using a Lancet loitering munition, indicating a loss of UAF artillery. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows heavily burned bodies of Russian soldiers and damaged vehicles, while attributed to UAF success, the scene itself depicts a battlefield setback, albeit for RF forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, indicating potential RF success against UAF positions in border areas. Воин DV video shows drone operators bombing "enemy holes," indicating UAF ground forces continue to be targeted effectively. Liveuamap Source reports numerous clashes across various axes, indicating ongoing challenges and potential setbacks for UAF ground forces. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requesting REB means indicates a vulnerability to RF drones. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows drone reconnaissance and attacks on enemy vehicles and positions in Pokrovsk, confirming continued heavy fighting and potential setbacks in this sector. Воин DV video showing a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform indicates RF's ability to interdict UGV deployments, potentially leading to UAF tactical setbacks. Народная милиция ДНР channel claiming "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts" could suggest effective RF targeting inflicting UAF losses. TASS video claims RF forces destroyed two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, representing a setback for UAF personnel movements. Colonelcassad's claim of a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, if verified, represents a significant setback for UAF defenses in the Southern axis. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai, confirming localized setbacks for UAF ground forces. Colonelcassad's report of a Lancet destroying a UAF M777 howitzer in Shyikivka is a direct tactical setback for UAF, impacting their artillery capabilities. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, confirming a setback in UAF armored vehicle capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features a Ukrainian soldier discussing harsh trench warfare conditions and chemical agent use by RF, indicating significant operational setbacks for UAF personnel. Colonelcassad photo claiming the advance of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Bila Hora area indicates continued ground setbacks in the East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Financial Shortfall for Arms Procurement: РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting, indicating a critical financial setback for UAF resource sustainability. ASTRA reports the Ramstein meeting has started, and Ukraine stated it needs $6 billion by the end of the year, confirming this critical financial gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Loss of ISR Assets: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones (Leleky, Hory, Sharks, FlyEye), as stated by Serhiy "Flash", indicating a setback in UAF ISR capabilities, which could impact operational awareness and targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Impact on Russia: Север.Реалии reports on a past famine in the Volga region and Urals, and people feeling "unneeded," indicating potential internal discontent or historical grievances that could be exploited by UAF if leveraged. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel from 352nd motorized rifle regiment were captured by UAF forces from "Khorne Group" 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, and are requesting exchange for Azovstal defenders, if confirmed, is a setback for RF morale and propaganda. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features two individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, possibly captured personnel, which is a setback in the information domain for RF. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, confirming a casualty with connections to the political elite, which could be a propaganda setback for RF. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with numerous graves, likely of soldiers, represents a visual setback for RF in the information domain, highlighting personnel losses. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage signifies an internal propaganda misstep for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Civilian Production Blockage: TASS reports the work of Miramistin and Okomistin producers has been blocked due to court-imposed restrictions, indicating an internal setback for RF civilian production that could impact public health or confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • International Sanctions Impact on RF: TASS reports the UK has imposed sanctions against 134 vessels allegedly linked to Russia, representing a new international setback for RF. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UK sanctioned 135 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels, confirming an additional international setback. TASS reports Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, with restrictions on transactions since July 20, indicating a setback due to international sanctions impacting RF financial services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Internal Media Suppression: TASS reports a criminal case has been opened against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes" about the RF Armed Forces, signifying a setback for press freedom within RF and highlighting suppression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Ukrainian Military-Police Friction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message and text reports an incident in Kharkiv region where a military person assaulted a police officer, if verified, indicates a setback in internal order and civil-military relations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Requirements:
  • Air Defense Munitions (CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE & EXPANDED, SUSTAINED, WESTERN FOCUS, HYPERSONIC CAPABLE): Urgent and critical requirement for interceptor missiles, particularly for countering high-volume, adaptive drone swarms, ballistic missile threats, cruise missile threats across all affected regions, especially now extending into Western Ukraine, and specifically hypersonic missile capable interceptors for Kinzhal threats. The intensity of the current attack necessitates an immediate increase in supply. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, directly addressing a critical requirement. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, confirming the continued urgent need. Zelenskiy / Official discusses the need for interceptor drones. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, directly addressing this critical requirement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming this critical reinforcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • ISR Assets (Enhanced Focus on New Western Strike Vectors & Diversionary Tactics, including Kinzhal Tracking, and Northern Axis RF Reserves, and RF Counter-UAV Capabilities): Continued high demand for real-time ISR to track RF strategic aviation, missile trajectories (especially cruise missiles from Tu-95MS and ballistic/hypersonic missiles), and high-volume drone movements across the newly threatened Central, Northern, Eastern, and now Western regions, particularly tracking sudden trajectory changes and diversions. Increased focus on identifying RF bomber deployment locations to Western targets. Critical requirement for ISR to determine the composition, readiness, and exact disposition of RF operational reserves in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts and verify claims of a bridgehead near Guyevo. Given the report that RF is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, there is an increased requirement for more resilient or stealthier ISR platforms, or enhanced REB protection for existing ones. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, highlighting the ongoing requirement for ISR assets and operations. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of drones (reconnaissance and FPV) and related equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front, highlighting the continuous requirement for these ISR and tactical assets. Сили оборони Півдня України video, featuring drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions (likely artillery), reinforces the ongoing requirement for effective ISR assets and skilled operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • BDA Resources: Increased need for rapid BDA teams to assess the widespread damage from the latest attacks, particularly in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and the newly targeted western regions (Lviv, Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi), with specific focus on critical logistics infrastructure (rail hubs, bridges, airfields). РБК-Україна photos show French Foreign Minister visiting Kyiv strike sites, underscoring the need for BDA and the international visibility of the damage. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on affected settlements in Kharkiv Oblast and a mine incident, indicating continuous need for BDA and hazard clearance. ASTRA photos and videos show significant damage to residential buildings in Kyiv, requiring further BDA and post-strike response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store, indicating a need for post-strike security measures and BDA on economic impact. Oleg Sinegubov reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled, requiring BDA. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides photos of civilian damage, necessitating BDA. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) photos of damage in Nikopol district further underscore the continuous need for BDA in areas under regular RF fire. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Unit Re-equipment/Support: Crowdfunding by UAF "Rubizh" brigade indicates a need for continued support for unit re-equipment and material replacement. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's announcement of NATO's 2026-2030 Common Funding Resource Plan for Ukraine suggests a strategic recognition of long-term resource needs, but immediate operational needs remain paramount. Nikolaevsky Vanek video shows Spartan brigade receiving DJI Matrice 4T drones from donations, indicating ongoing need for such equipment and reliance on external funding. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative accumulating €2.5 million for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, confirming a requirement for artillery pieces. Zelenskiy / Official video and text on increasing domestic weapons production and auditing international agreements emphasize the critical nature of resource management. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an an audit of defense agreements with partners, highlighting the need for a comprehensive assessment of defense resources. DeepState video discussing the need for mass production of drones and continuous adaptation, highlighting a key resource requirement for Ukraine's military. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requesting REB means indicates a specific, urgent equipment requirement. STERNENKO crowdfunding for "Shahedorez" (Shahed cutter) indicates specific equipment needs. РБК-Україна reports UK supplied 50,000 drones to Ukraine since March, highlighting the high demand for drones. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine invested over $20 billion in its own defense industry over two years, per Umerov, indicating high investment needs. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting, highlighting a critical and immediate resource requirement. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support against current needs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows RF soldiers appealing for donations for drones and Starlink, highlighting the need for advanced technological assets. РБК-Україна reports an urgent fundraiser for drones for the 32nd Steel Brigade. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports the systemic support to Kharkiv defenders, including the transfer of 'Vampire' drones and military trucks, indicating ongoing efforts to meet frontline logistical needs. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian intelligence claims that the largest Russian banks are preparing for a debt crisis, potentially impacting RF's financial sustainment of the war. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, addressing a critical resource requirement for domestic production. Два майора photo message with text "Extremely necessary project in the conditions of the SVO" accompanying a photo of ski trails, if intended for military use, highlights a requirement for maintaining morale/training facilities during conflict. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of drones and equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued requirements for specialized equipment. Zelenskyy's address to diplomats highlighted the key role of embassies in securing additional financing for drones and air defense, indicating a focus on resource acquisition through diplomatic channels. Оперативний ЗСУ provides further details on Ramstein meeting results from Shmyhal, reinforcing resource requirements. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 infographic on Ramstein outcomes highlights continued need for ammunition and drone funding. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continued participation in financing Ukrainian defense industry, reinforcing the need for sustained and specialized international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Constraints:
  • Air Defense Saturation (CRITICAL): The sheer volume (426 UAVs and 24 missiles) and adaptive nature of incoming RF attacks, now including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles across vast areas of Ukrainian territory (now into Western Ukraine) and ballistic/hypersonic missiles on Kyiv and Western Ukraine, severely risks overwhelming UAF air defenses, leading to breakthroughs and increased damage. The approximately 10 Shaheds inbound to Kyiv, combined with multiple missile groups and a Kinzhal, represent an immediate and severe saturation risk. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the high lethality and difficulty of interception, thus exacerbating AD saturation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Geographic Stretch (EXTREME): The nationwide expansion of deep strikes, now encompassing central and significantly western Ukraine with strategic missile and hypersonic threats, forces UAF to further disperse already severely strained AD assets, creating critical vulnerabilities across the entire country. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Resource Constraints: Reliance on crowdfunding for specific unit re-equipment, as seen with the "Rubizh" brigade, suggests that formal supply chains may not be meeting all immediate equipment needs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА channel seeks donations for a "big sum," indicating continued crowdfunding for RF units, which could reflect constraints on their formal supply chain as well. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Zelenskiy / Official highlighting the need to increase domestic weapon production to 50% in six months and audit existing agreements implicitly acknowledges current constraints and the urgency to overcome them. DeepState video discussing the challenges of mass production for drones, indicating a constraint in scaling this crucial technology. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting, indicating a critical and immediate financial constraint. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, highlighting a constraint in UAF ISR capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• RUF:

  • "Overwhelming Force" Narrative (Amplified, Sustained & Aggressive, Emphasizing AD Exhaustion & Hypersonic Advantage): RF continues to use its extensive aerial attacks (426 drones, 24 missiles), particularly the use of strategic bombers for cruise missile launches and ballistic/hypersonic missiles, to project overwhelming military superiority and inevitability of Ukrainian defeat. Milblogger commentary (Fighterbomber, Два майора, WarGonzo, Операция Z) directly aims to terrify the population and demoralize UAF, including sarcastic claims about Vasylkiv airfield and openly mocking Ukrainian AD capabilities by stating Kyiv is "without AD." The use of Kinzhal will be highlighted to demonstrate Russian advanced capabilities and the difficulty of interception. "Dva Mayora" is explicitly stating "accuracy of our strikes" in relation to impacts in Kyiv and predicting increasing strikes on capitals and VPK. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts generic morale messages, contrasting with the aggression of other channels. Colonelcassad shows videos of claimed "Geranium" strikes in Kyiv. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) posted a photo of a massive explosion plume captioned "Beautiful," reinforcing the narrative of successful and destructive strikes. Alex Parker Returns attempts to mock UAF maritime capabilities by showing a small boat in relation to a claimed strike on a Black Sea platform. MoD Russia's video on Popov Yar further reinforces the narrative of successful ground operations and territorial gains, showcasing detailed accounts from servicemen. Воин DV's FPV drone video claiming successful neutralization of UAF equipment contributes to the narrative of RF tactical superiority and effective drone warfare. TASS reports RF MoD claims destruction of 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar, and high UAF personnel losses, reinforcing demoralization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Басурин о главном video claims Belaya Gora capture is significant for logistics to Kostiantynivka, to demonstrate continued RF ground tactical success. ТАСС reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete under FIDE flag will be used to show international "normalcy." ТАСС reports on proposals for remote work during bad weather will be used to project government care. Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI, will be used to highlight US internal political dysfunction. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, will be used to project Russian diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды advertising truck bed caps and covers may be used as subtle internal propaganda for resilience/self-sufficiency. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video showing the restoration of a memorial will be used to project care for historical memory. ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on Azerbaijan-Russia relations and a potential meeting between Putin and Trump will be used to project diplomatic influence. ТАСС reports on migrant language requirements will be used to project internal policy control. Два майора video of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence agent detention in St. Petersburg, linked to an 80-drone attack plan, reinforces the narrative of successful counter-intelligence and Ukrainian malevolence. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption directly attempts to portray disunity and institutional decay within Ukraine. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, reinforcing the narrative of successful counter-terrorism efforts. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, will be used to support information operations. Kotsnews photo message at an airport aims to project normalcy and stability to counter disruptive narratives. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics will be used for demoralization. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claiming Ukraine has run out of cemetery space will be used to spread panic and demoralization. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, indicating a continued effort to shape historical narratives and reinforce state control. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video on the influence of public actions on prisoner exchanges, highlights RF's intent to counter these efforts through propaganda. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment. Басурин о главном uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, reinforcing attempts to exploit US political developments. TASS reports a new bill providing free higher education for SVO participants, which will be used to boost domestic support and normalize military service. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF will use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's continued suppression of independent media and control of the information space. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, used to project a narrative of victimhood or unfairness in international contexts. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. TASS reports Ukraine's buying tickets to Gergiev's concert to disrupt it, aiming to portray Ukrainian actions negatively. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries running out of space indicates a continued intensified information offensive. TASS reports blocking Miramistin production, which can be leveraged to justify state control. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, indicating RF's intent to reinforce control over information. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, who had ties to Putin, will be used for internal glorification and to normalize military losses. Alex Parker Returns explicitly frames Zelenskyy's negotiation proposal as a "military dictator" seeking to gain time, undermining Ukrainian diplomatic efforts. Colonelcassad's satirical posts about Tikhanovsky will continue to attempt to discredit opposition figures. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicating a continued complex information offensive addressing internal social dynamics. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant for him, which will be used to reinforce the "RF victimhood" narrative. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," used to stir regional tensions and justify RF actions. Операция Z reports a drone hitting a residential house roof near Moscow, used to highlight perceived Ukrainian aggression against civilian targets. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, is a direct disinformation attempt to undermine Ukrainian defense capabilities and morale. Alex Parker Returns is also attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. ТАСС video and text featuring Konstantin Bogomolov accepting his "Honored Artist" title from Putin will be used to project normalcy, stability, and cultural support for the war. Басурин о главном photo, titled "New batch of imported scrap metal," showing damaged military equipment, is a direct propaganda attempt to highlight Ukrainian/Western equipment losses and demoralize UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 text announcing additional social support for combat veterans is internal propaganda aimed at boosting morale and supporting military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Ukrainian Weakness" Narrative (Exploitative & Manipulative): RF is immediately leveraging successful impacts in Kyiv and other regions, including metro disruptions and civilian casualties, to amplify narratives of Ukrainian AD ineffectiveness, even with sarcastic or exaggerated claims, to further psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) aims to show tactical superiority. RF channels are also spreading claimed information from UAF POWs (e.g., Andrey Kachur) about "inhumane conditions" to sow discord and demoralize UAF personnel. Alex Parker Returns explicitly engages in disinformation by comparing International Mathematical Olympiad results to claim Ukrainian academic inferiority and cause "hysterics," demonstrating RF's willingness to exploit non-military achievements for propaganda. Alex Parker Returns video, claiming "Ukrainians tried to set up a car ambush with a drone," aims to portray UAF as deceptive and RF forces as skilled in countering them. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI, which, while not directly about Ukraine, reflects an attempt to exploit and amplify internal US political divisions, potentially to show Western weakness. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message claims the "Nazi regime is devouring itself" due to corruption in NABU, attempting to undermine Ukrainian institutions and portray internal weakness. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, potentially framing it as a sign of internal Ukrainian instability or consequence of conflict. Север.Реалии reports a war participant who killed a girl is being expelled from a university in St. Petersburg, which could be spun to imply moral decay within elements of Ukrainian society or challenges with reintegration of combatants. Старше Эдды's statement about "former Ukraine" and its military tactics further attempts to dehumanize and weaken Ukraine's image. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, directly promoting the narrative of immense UAF losses and weakness. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society and negatively influence prisoner exchange outcomes, explicitly confirming this RF propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows RF soldiers appealing for donations, inadvertently highlighting potential logistical weaknesses on their side, but framed as a necessary measure for victory. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, potentially used by RF to claim UAF intelligence weakness. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's control of information and suppression of dissent, which weakens internal information reliability for Ukraine. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, potentially undermining international sporting integrity and indirectly Ukraine's image. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured, indicating a setback for RF morale. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, possibly captured personnel, which undermines RF strength. Басурин о главном is propagating disinformation claiming that French media reports Ukrainian cemeteries have run out of space for new graves, indicating huge UAF losses, directly aiming to portray Ukrainian weakness. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with numerous graves, likely of soldiers, may be used by RF to suggest Ukrainian casualties are immense. Alex Parker Returns explicitly frames Zelenskyy's negotiation proposal as a "military dictator" seeking to gain time, undermining Ukrainian diplomatic efforts. Colonelcassad's satirical posts about Tikhanovsky aim to portray Belarusian opposition as weak and ineffectual. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo of a Ukrainian military commissariat with text about a "volunteer" returning to say "thank you" is a clear attempt to mock Ukrainian mobilization and portray it as forced or abusive, aiming to undermine public support for the war effort. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, directly targets Ukrainian morale and confidence in their defense capabilities. Басурин о главном photo, titled "New batch of imported scrap metal," showing damaged military equipment, is a direct propaganda attempt to highlight Ukrainian/Western equipment losses and demoralize UAF. Alex Parker Returns photo message using a Ukrainian MP's apartment destruction to suggest privilege is an attempt to sow discord and undermine public support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Victimhood" Narrative (Counter-UAF Attacks Justification): RF is actively reporting on UAF drone attacks on Moscow (e.g., 23 UAVs destroyed as per Sobyanin/MoD, via Два майора/TASS/ASTRA) and their "collateral damage" (e.g., train delays in Rostov, now confirmed for over 50 trains delayed with Kamianolomni station fire) to portray Russia as a victim and justify its ongoing military actions, aiming to garner domestic support and deflect international criticism. RF Transport Minister Nikitin's comments aim to reassure the public about airport safety despite the incidents. Mishustin's announcement of border crossing point repairs also feeds into a narrative of maintaining and improving national infrastructure despite external threats. The Belgorod governor's report of 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV also supports this narrative. The detention of a Moldovan national for espionage will likely increase vigilance and support for counter-intelligence measures. Voenkor KOTENOK provides video of the FSB detention of a Moldovan national with Russian passport in Ryazan, accused of being recruited by Kyiv intelligence services, serving to bolster the "RF Victimhood" and "Successful Counter-Intelligence" narratives. TASS confirms over 50 trains delayed due to UAV attack in Rostov, continuing to highlight disruption. TASS reports the detention of a man in St. Petersburg for collecting information on RF MoD and military industry facilities for Ukrainian special services, explicitly tying internal security successes to counter-Ukrainian efforts. Colonelcassad's video of the St. Petersburg detention amplifies this counter-intelligence narrative. TASS reports RF MoD claims 14 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula, and Oryol Oblasts between 08:30 and 12:00 MSK, supporting the victimhood narrative and RF AD effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles, which can be used to highlight UAF attacks impacting civilian travel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок claims a UAF RZ-100 "Morok" kamikaze drone was successfully intercepted near the LBS, framing UAF as aggressive and RF as defensive. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) AV БогомаZ reports 2 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast, directly supporting the victimhood narrative. Два майора video of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence agent detention in St. Petersburg, linked to an 80-drone attack plan, aims to justify RF counter-intelligence and portray Ukraine as aggressive. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter were introduced at Sheremetyevo airport, supporting the victimhood narrative. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, reinforcing the narrative of successful counter-terrorism efforts. Новости Москвы reports airports in Moscow were closed over 20 times in three days, serving to highlight the "victimhood" of RF civilian infrastructure and justify RF actions. ASTRA video on Kamianolomni railway station damage from UAV reinforces the victimhood narrative. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea, and Новости Москвы reports trains in Moscow are delayed due to weather, both contributing to the "RF Victimhood" narrative by highlighting disruptions impacting civilian life. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, further supporting the victimhood narrative and the government's response to it. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS providing detailed footage of damaged railway nodes in Rostov Oblast is counter-narrative evidence against RF claims of minimal impact. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo, while showing disruption, also implies RF is managing the situation and expects a return to normalcy soon. TASS reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions, reinforcing the victimhood narrative. AV БогомаZ reports 6 enemy UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, reinforcing this narrative. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station due to rain, supporting the victimhood narrative. Басурин о главном video and text confirm FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg who was collecting information on RF defense enterprises, serving to bolster the "RF Victimhood" narrative. TASS reports on the situation in Russian airports following restrictions, indicating an effort to manage the narrative of disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks. TASS reports an additional UAV shot down over Moscow, reinforcing the victimhood narrative and RF AD effectiveness. Новости Москвы reports continued train delays at Paveletsky Station due to weather, highlighting disruptions that can be used to justify RF actions. TASS reports UK sanctions against 134 vessels linked to Russia are likely to be spun by RF as a continuation of Western aggression and attempts to victimize Russia. Операция Z reports a drone hit a residential house roof near Moscow, used to reinforce the victimhood narrative by highlighting attacks on civilian targets. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, highlights the "victimhood" of RF civilians caught in the crossfire of UAF drone attacks. TASS photo and text show a proposal to ban feeding stray animals near apartment buildings, which could be spun to show RF focusing on internal civilian issues despite external "aggression." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Chinese Support" Narrative (Diplomatic Leveraging): China's statement about "decisive measures" in response to EU sanctions on Russia will be leveraged by RF state media to demonstrate continued international support from a major power, counteracting Western efforts to isolate Russia. The upcoming EU/European Council visit to China on 24 JUL may be framed by RF as China maintaining dialogue despite Western pressure. TASS reports an Iranian official delivered a message to Putin, indicating continued diplomatic engagement with "friendly" states to project international support. TASS reports a trilateral meeting (China, RF, Iran) on the Iranian nuclear program on July 22, showcasing Russia's continued diplomatic relevance and cooperation with non-Western powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, which can be framed by RF as a diplomatic success and regional influence. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) TASS reports Peskov's comments on various international relations topics suggest a centralized and coordinated diplomatic messaging strategy. TASS reports Pudov's statement on migrant language requirements indicates adaptation of internal policy. ТАСС reports foreigners can visit Karabakh from July 23, potentially showing RF's role in stabilizing regions. Colonelcassad reports Russia and Iran began joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea, indicating continued military cooperation with "friendly" states and projecting regional influence. ТАСС reports the US will urge Europe to follow its example if it imposes 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, signaling potential economic pressure but also highlighting a US policy that can be spun to show RF resilience against Western pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Tactical Success" Narrative (Ground Operations, Claims of Breakthroughs): RF MOD releasing video claiming "Popov Yar" liberation and specific UAF equipment destruction (Bradley, M113, Akatsiya) aims to demonstrate ground force effectiveness and territorial gains, counteracting any perception of RF stagnation. "Воин DV" claims recent bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi supporting ground advance with claimed UAF losses. Pushilin's claim about "liberation of Bila Hora" and cutting UAF supply routes in DNR reinforces this narrative of RF tactical success. Kotsnews video of "precise fire damage" also contributes to this narrative. DNR People's Militia channel provides video of claimed destruction of a UAF communication antenna and a "Baba Yaga" heavy drone, reinforcing RF tactical success narrative. Rybar's post on "new rockets for helicopters" aims to project ongoing military development. MoD Russia's video further details the claimed liberation of Popov Yar, featuring servicemen discussing the combat and aerial views of the destroyed settlement, reinforcing the narrative of ground gains. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) and Colonelcassad explicitly claim RF has opened a new front in Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to demonstrate strategic initiative and UAF vulnerability. Басурин о главном video confirms Russian military operations in vicinity of Belaya Gora in Donetsk region, with destroyed buildings and a soldier describing tactics including drone-kamikazes and assault troops, claiming capture of Swedish, Spanish, and Turkish made enemy weapons, aiming to demonstrate RF tactical success and material superiority. Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction, directly reinforcing RF tactical success claims. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction, which is a subtle reinforcement of ongoing ground operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, used to project military effectiveness. Воин DV video showing drone operators bombing "enemy holes," aiming to demonstrate tactical success. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, providing frequent updates on RF tactical actions. Colonelcassad's video showcasing a reconnaissance UGV can be used to project a narrative of technological advancement and successful tactical operations. Басурин о главном announces a new episode of "Basurin Answers!", a direct propaganda effort to disseminate RF narratives. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows drone reconnaissance and attacks on enemy vehicles and positions in Pokrovsk, contributing to the narrative of RF ground force effectiveness. Воин DV video showing a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform which was loaded with supplies, is used to highlight RF's success in countering enemy technological advancements. Народная милиция ДНР channel claiming "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts," is a direct propaganda message on tactical success. TASS video claims RF forces destroyed two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, reinforcing tactical success. Воин DV reports on ongoing fighting in Southern-Donetsk direction, indicating continued tactical success. Colonelcassad claims a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, if verified, would be a major propaganda victory for RF. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai, reinforcing the narrative of RF tactical success in ground operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing drone footage of engagements against enemy forces, including a fuel/lubricant depot, aims to demonstrate RF tactical losses, but if used by RF, it would be to highlight their engagement capacity. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with numerous graves, likely of soldiers, could be used to frame losses as sacrifices for success, though this is ambiguous. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, stating he died in the "special operation," linking a civilian-connected individual to military operations to reinforce the narrative of a successful, albeit costly, "special operation." Colonelcassad's video of a Lancet strike on a UAF M777 howitzer is directly used to promote the "tactical success" narrative. WarGonzo's video discussing supply replenishment emphasizes RF's ability to sustain operations. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, used to showcase RF tactical effectiveness and highlight UAF losses. MoD Russia video and photos of joint military tactical exercises with Uzbekistan are used to project military strength and effective training. Kotsnews video shows an FPV drone strike on enemy personnel in a field, which RF claims is a "PVD," used to showcase RF tactical effectiveness and highlight UAF losses. Басурин о главном photo, titled "New batch of imported scrap metal," showing damaged military equipment, is a direct propaganda attempt to highlight Ukrainian/Western equipment losses and demoralize UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability and long-term development despite the conflict. State Duma proposal to increase debt threshold for travel ban likely aims to project internal stability and control. Mishustin's statement on openness to investments from "friendly countries" also supports this narrative. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 ("Новости Москвы") attempts to project a long-term economic planning image. TASS reporting on the VK Fest in Moscow aims to project normalcy and large-scale public events. New Red Wings flights announced also aim to project normalcy. TASS confirms Vnukovo airport resumed normal operations, contributing to the narrative of returning normalcy and stability. TASS videos of Moscow flooding and flooded pedestrian tunnel, while demonstrating challenges, also serve to project a state that is addressing internal issues. Minlabor proposes a 20.7% increase in the minimum wage from January 2026 (TASS), aiming to project economic stability and improved living standards. Mash на Донбассе promoting real estate sales in Sochi (Agoi Grand Hotel) serves as a subtle internal propaganda message of normalcy and investment in civilian life, despite the ongoing conflict. TASS reports a State Duma committee recommended adoption of a bill introducing administrative liability for digital platform operators failing to meet platform economy law requirements, aiming to project effective internal governance. TASS reports an interview with Sergei Stepashin calling for salary caps in Russian football, indicating domestic societal issues are also part of RF information space, diverting from military topics. Новости Москвы forecasts sunny and dry weekend for Moscow, aiming to project normalcy and stability. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo caption "СБОР КО ДНЮ ВДВ!" indicates internal morale-boosting and a focus on military holidays. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Стрелков Игорь Иванович's channel posts about Igor Strelkov's arrest, portraying him as a "true patriot" and implying "enemies of Russia" are undermining the country, reflecting internal dissent and grievances. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Полиция Хабаровского края video and photos, focusing on a radio broadcast and a "presentation slide," likely serve to project internal order, community engagement, and stability. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) TASS reports a court sentenced Darvol jewelry house owner Daria Spiridonova to 7 years for fraud, which aims to project internal rule of law and anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Hungary discussed with Serbia construction of an oil pipeline for Russian oil supplies, involving Russian representatives, aiming to demonstrate continued economic cooperation despite Western sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports State Duma Committee supported a bill to expand benefits for "hero mothers," aiming to project support for traditional values and demographic growth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports MP Nilov proposed remote work for office employees during severe bad weather, framing it as a measure for citizen well-being. ТАСС reports Sergey Leonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, supports remote work during bad weather, supporting a narrative of government care for citizens. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video showing the restoration of a memorial can be used to project a narrative of Russian resilience and care for historical memory amidst conflict. Старше Эдды is advertising the manufacture and installation of truck bed caps and covers for various pickup truck models, potentially signaling domestic production and a resilient economy. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete under FIDE flag, serving to project normalcy and international acceptance. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions, reinforcing the stability narrative. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov, which, if presented as part of an anti-corruption drive, can reinforce a narrative of internal stability and rule of law. Kotsnews photo message at an airport aims to project normalcy and stability, thus influencing public sentiment positively regarding internal conditions. ТАСС reports Putin commented on the birth rate, indicating a focus on social stability. Новости Москвы reports American scientists created a universal mRNA vaccine for cancer, a non-military piece of information that can be used to project a focus on scientific advancement. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea, directly impacting public sentiment due to travel disruption. Новости Москвы reports trains in Moscow are delayed due to weather, further impacting public convenience. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, acknowledging and responding to public frustration with infrastructure issues. ASTRA reports Russia plans to introduce fines for cryptocurrency payments starting in 2026, which may impact public sentiment among cryptocurrency users. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, aiming to project historical continuity and state strength. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, aiming to project a return to normalcy and stable operations. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo, while showing disruption, also implies RF is managing the situation and expects a return to normalcy soon. TASS reports a gas explosion in Novorossiysk, a domestic incident with potential for negative public sentiment if perceived as a widespread safety issue. TASS reports Putin assigned the title of Honored Artist to Konstantin Bogomolov, a civilian development aimed at highlighting cultural contributions and normalcy. TASS reports a new bill provides free higher education for SVO participants, reinforcing social support and normalcy. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station due to rain, confirming public inconvenience. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, aiming to mitigate public frustration regarding transportation disruptions. Новости Москвы photo message "Raise demography by 23:00" alongside a photo of a married couple, indicates RF's continued emphasis on demographic growth and traditional family values, which is likely to be received positively by conservative segments of the public. Север.Реалии reports on a past famine in the Volga region and Urals, and people feeling "unneeded," which could evoke negative public sentiment and historical grievances. Два майора photo message "Extremely necessary project in the conditions of the SVO" with an image of ski trails, might elicit positive public sentiment by projecting normalcy and internal development, or indifference if seen as irrelevant to the conflict. TASS reports FAS instructed its regional offices to increase price control for drinking water and food in airports, aiming to project government care for citizens amidst disruptions. TASS blocking Miramistin production, while impacting civilian supply, can be framed as the state exercising control for stability or security. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, indicating RF's intent to reinforce control over information. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage contradicts the "stability" narrative, demonstrating internal friction within RF society. Colonelcassad's satirical posts about Tikhanovsky aim to influence domestic public opinion by discrediting opposition figures. TASS reports the military court will begin hearing the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case on August 4, used to project internal stability and commitment to justice. TASS reports on the death of actress Tatiana Egorova, which is a neutral civilian news item. ТАСС photo confirms water standing in some areas of Moscow after prolonged downpour, which can be spun to show government responsiveness to internal challenges. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 text announcing additional social support for combat veterans will be used to project government care and encourage military service. TASS reports that Volodin has instructed to develop amendments to legislation on prohibiting the purchase of military uniforms abroad, aiming to project self-sufficiency and strength in domestic military production. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to ban feeding stray animals near apartment buildings, which can be used to project a government focused on public order and civilian welfare. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to halve the cost of food in airports if operations are restricted for more than 3 hours, used to project government responsiveness to civilian inconvenience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is explicitly attempting to project internal disunity within Russian society by stating "Разрозненность общества у нас зашкаливает, многие ведут себя как рагули из соседней б/украины." This attempts to suggest a false equivalence of internal societal issues. Alex Parker Returns posts a video related to TCC (Ukrainian military recruitment centers) and Romani people, attempting to sow discord and exploit internal social issues within Ukraine for propaganda. Sever.Realii reports that "fake news" and "discreditation" cases are now being included in the list of terrorists and extremists, indicating RF's intent to suppress internal dissent and control information narratives. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video (from a Ukrainian source) shows an RF soldier expressing extreme xenophobic and aggressive sentiments towards people at a river, which if amplified by RF, could suggest internal disunity and brutalization of personnel, but if from a Ukrainian source is likely used to portray RF negatively. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video, with Ukrainian commentary, compares current socio-economic conditions in Donetsk to 10 years prior, implying decline under Russian control and potentially highlighting disunity or discontent within occupied territories. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video showing a 'Donetsk philanthropist' replacing a basketball net, while seemingly benign, could be used by RF to counter narratives of decline and promote a sense of normalcy and investment. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption directly attempts to portray disunity and institutional decay within Ukraine. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, aiming to create internal panic and disunity regarding war losses. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how Russia uses propaganda to sow discord within Ukrainian society and negatively influence prisoner exchange outcomes, explicitly confirming this RF propaganda effort. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to depict disarray in UAF recruitment. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian intelligence claims that the largest Russian banks are preparing for a debt crisis, potentially aiming to portray internal RF disunity or instability. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF can use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," which, while internal to RF, can be leveraged to show Ukraine as suppressing independent voices. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, which, while about sports, can be used to imply unfairness in broader international relations, aiming to sow disunity among Ukraine's partners. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured, highlighting internal RF vulnerabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, which, if implying capture, creates a narrative of internal disunity. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries highlights RF's efforts to portray internal disunity in Ukraine due to high losses. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage demonstrates an internal disunity and public backlash against symbols of power in occupied territories. Alex Parker Returns posts photos claiming a municipal head in Russia banned "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, which is a nuanced internal propaganda effort to demonstrate Russian internal social dynamics and potentially counter accusations of fascism from Ukraine, aiming to create disunity within Ukraine by highlighting perceived Russian moral superiority. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo mocking Ukrainian military commissariats attempts to portray internal friction and disunity within Ukraine regarding mobilization. Alex Parker Returns photo message claims a Member of Parliament's apartment in Kyiv was destroyed near the Artem factory, which is a direct attempt to sow social discord and dissatisfaction within Ukraine by highlighting perceived inequality among officials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Propagandizing Domestic Opinions: The "Mobilization | News | Conscripts" channel posting a video titled "Ksenia Sobchak's husband called the war 'the luck of a generation'" aims to showcase elite support for the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast, which could be spun to show consequences of military service or to portray individuals as outliers, depending on RF narrative. WarGonzo video discussing the Afghanistan war in a retrospective context can be used to frame current military operations within a historical narrative of Russian military prowess and sacrifice. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video of a man claiming to be a returned deputy from the front aims to showcase support from various societal layers and normalize military service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы photo message "Raise demography by 23:00" alongside a photo of a married couple, indicates RF's continued emphasis on demographic growth and traditional family values, as part of its internal stability narrative. Два майора photo message "Extremely necessary project in the conditions of the SVO" with an image of ski trails, indicates RF's internal messaging aims to project normalcy and internal stability, potentially diverting resources from military logistics, or an attempt to use civilian infrastructure as a subtle propaganda tool during wartime. TASS provides a video of Sergey Stepashin, a member of the board of directors of Moscow Dynamo, discussing the sale of beer at stadiums, aiming to engage with and influence public opinion on domestic issues. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, who had ties to Putin, will be used to create positive domestic opinion by framing his death as a heroic sacrifice for the "special operation." Fighterbomber's promotion of survival knives, while commercial, aligns with a broader narrative of self-sufficiency and preparation, which can appeal to some segments of domestic opinion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Undermining Western Support: Kotsnews directly states that Senator Lindsey Graham is a "Russophobe" who "just works for the American military-industrial complex," implying Western sanctions are for profit, aiming to sow discord within Western alliances and undermine their motivations. ТАСС reports Trump lost 75% of federal cases challenging his decrees, which can be used by RF to depict Western political instability and internal division. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns posts photo with caption about "American bulldozer of politics" and Trump's presidency, which, given the context, is likely a subtle dig at Western political figures or an attempt to highlight perceived Western instability. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on US political figures and Azerbaijan-Russia relations are part of RF's diplomatic messaging to project influence and potentially sow discord within Western alliances. STERNENKO video of Senator Lindsey Graham commenting on Trump's potential tariffs on Russian oil, while a UAF source, disseminates information that can be spun by RF to highlight Western internal disagreements on policy toward Russia. ASTRA reports EU sanctions against an Iranian oil magnate for trade with Russia, which could be framed as Western overreach and an attempt to isolate non-Western powers. РБК-Україна reports Pistorius stated Putin is not interested in negotiations and pushes his military agenda, which could be spun by RF as Western intransigence or misunderstanding. ТАСС reports the US will urge Europe to follow its example if it imposes 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, directly aiming to sow discord within NATO and European alliances. Басурин о главном uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, demonstrating an intent to exploit US political developments for propaganda that may undermine Western unity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil, which RF will portray as continued Western aggression and overreach, aimed at undermining Western unity against Russia. РБК-Україна photo message highlights US call for harsh tariffs against RF partners, which RF will use to demonstrate Western efforts to isolate and harm Russia, aimed at influencing global opinion against such measures. TASS reports UK sanctions against 134 vessels linked to Russia are likely to be spun by RF as a continuation of Western aggression and attempts to victimize Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• UAF:

  • "Resilience and Effectiveness" Narrative (Maintaining Transparency): UAF channels (Air Force, regional administrations, Mayor Klitschko, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ) continue to provide timely and transparent updates on missile and UAV movements and AD engagements, aiming to reassure the public and counter RF narratives of overwhelming force. The continued dispatch of emergency services reinforces a narrative of effective response. Visual evidence of damage in Kharkiv and Kyiv from UAF sources (РБК-Україна, ASTRA) counters RF claims of precision strikes on military targets and highlights the impact on civilians, including a kindergarten and university. President Zelenskyy's statement on AD successes (344 of 623 targets destroyed) aims to maintain confidence. KMVA's video message and photos showcasing ongoing rescue and emergency operations in Kyiv and other regions directly counters RF claims of overwhelming destruction and reinforces UAF's narrative of resilience and effective civilian protection. RBK-Ukraine reports over fifteen direct hits in Kyiv, maintaining transparency about the scale of the attack. РБК-Україна photos show French Foreign Minister visiting Kyiv strike sites, reinforcing the narrative of civilian impact and international solidarity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claims Ukrainian National Guard "Khartia" brigade drone operators destroyed nearly a platoon of Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast, projecting UAF effectiveness. STERNENKO video shows a drone strike on 7 Russian personnel, projecting UAF effectiveness and tactical success. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on the number of affected settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, maintaining transparency about the scale of damage and the ongoing threat. Zelenskiy / Official video and text emphasize increasing domestic weapons production and auditing international agreements, projecting UAF determination and strategic effectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ video claims SSO eliminated a group of Russians, projecting UAF effectiveness. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Kyiv increased to nine, maintaining transparency regarding civilian casualties. ASTRA photos and videos show significant damage to residential buildings in Kyiv, reinforcing public anxiety. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store, which could negatively impact public morale due to perceived internal disorder. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video highlights the perceived decline in Donetsk, which may resonate with those experiencing similar conditions or fuel discontent. DeepState video discussing the importance of drones for Ukraine's defense, even involving civilians in training, aims to boost morale through self-reliance and innovation. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes along the front, providing transparency on ongoing military operations. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) video aims to project public spirit and resilience. РБК-Україна video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling, reinforcing the narrative of resilience and effective emergency response. Сили оборони Півдня України video shows drone footage of successful artillery strikes, projecting UAF effectiveness. Zelenskiy / Official discusses drone production and procurement of interceptor drones to reinforce defense capabilities. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports systemic support to Kharkiv defenders with drones and vehicles, projecting resilience and continued military support. STERNENKO reports on Zelenskyy's meeting with French Foreign Minister, projecting continued diplomatic engagement and resilience. STERNENKO video shows GUR MO (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense) specialists launching reconnaissance drones, highlighting UAF intelligence capabilities and effectiveness. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, projecting UAF's growing domestic defense capabilities and international partnerships. Olexander Vilkul, head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, provides photo messages of water supply network modernization, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of drones and equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front, reinforcing the narrative of resilience and continued military support. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides photos of damaged civilian infrastructure, demonstrating the ongoing terror and highlighting the need for resilience. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of 61st OMBr tank crews training, demonstrating ongoing efforts to maintain high readiness and combat proficiency, reinforcing the narrative of military effectiveness. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of negotiations with RF in Istanbul, promoting transparency in diplomatic efforts. Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries, projecting diplomatic activity and positive international relations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from Lukyanivka after Shahed strike emphasizes "the main thing is they are alive," focusing on human resilience. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports attacks on Nikopol district with multiple photos of damaged civilian structures, highlighting RF aggression against civilian targets and UAF resilience. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features a Ukrainian soldier discussing harsh trench warfare conditions, emphasizing UAF resilience and combat realities. Сили оборони Півдня України video, featuring drone operators conducting reconnaissance of camouflaged enemy positions, highlights UAF's ongoing operational effectiveness and resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "RF Losses" Narrative: UAF General Staff and Operational ZSU channels continue to publish daily RF combat losses, reinforcing the narrative of successful defense and attrition of RF forces. STERNENKO's FPV drone videos show destruction of RF vehicles and personnel, serving to counter RF narratives of tactical success and highlight RF losses. РБК-Україна video shows UAF destroying Russian artillery in Zaporizhzhia direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows heavily burned bodies of Russian soldiers and damaged vehicles, explicitly highlighting RF losses and the brutality of the conflict. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video claims a Russian occupier shot himself upon seeing a drone, which, if authenticated, would be a significant psychological blow against RF morale. Оперативний ЗСУ video "USF Today" details destruction of RF AD systems, showcasing RF losses. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video shows FPV drone strike on a Russian UAZ-452 ('Bukhanka') vehicle, resulting in an explosion and secondary detonations, explicitly highlighting RF equipment and personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured, reinforcing RF personnel losses and UAF effectiveness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, which, if released by UAF sources, would highlight RF losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of tactical engagements against enemy personnel and positions, highlighting successful UAF drone operations and inflicted casualties. Два майора video of casualty evacuation in Sumy Oblast, if used by UAF, directly shows RF personnel losses. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video details effective and emotional artillery work by the UDA special purpose unit, claiming successful targeting of RF positions, which highlights RF equipment and personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, titled "Put him on the ground, let him walk," shows a Russian soldier who appears to have sustained injuries being transported, potentially implying capture or significant combat losses for RF, contributing to the "RF Losses" narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Counter-Hybrid Warfare" Narrative: Reports on SBU/OGP operations against Russian influence within Ukrainian institutions (РБК-УкраїНА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO) demonstrate Ukraine's active efforts to counter internal subversion and hybrid threats, reinforcing national resilience. OGP's detailed public announcement and evidence regarding the detention of a high-ranking individual suspected of being an FSB agent and influencing NABU is a significant success in countering RF hybrid warfare and internal subversion. РБК-Україна reports "at least 70 searches" regarding NABU employees, reinforcing UAF's proactive stance against internal subversion. Оперативний ЗСУ video of the exposed MP Fedir Khristenko as an FSB agent is a high-profile success. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU and OGP exposed an acting Ukrainian People's Deputy working for Russia, who had significant influence on NABU's activities, including facilitating illegal departures and influencing investigations, strongly supporting the "Counter-Hybrid Warfare" narrative. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the arrest of a Kyiv prosecutor, indicating continued efforts to maintain rule of law and counter internal threats. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on an announcement about the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine," potentially part of a counter-corruption narrative. Оперативний ЗСУ reports suspicion served to the General Director of "Forests of Ukraine" for illegal enrichment, reinforcing anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU initiated a comprehensive check on adherence to state secrets legislation in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). РБК-Україна reports SBU denies gaining access to NABU and SAP cases, controlling the narrative on internal security. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the General Director of "Rostec" and an assistant to the leadership of the aggressor state have been notified of suspicion, indicating effective C2 in pursuing legal action against high-level Russian officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the detention of a NABU elite unit "D-2" employee in Kyiv, suspected of spying for Russian special services, directly reinforcing counter-intelligence successes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms SBU raids on NABU structures continue, bolstering the narrative of a proactive fight against internal threats. Zelenskyy's address to diplomats emphasized the need for legal architecture to hold Russia accountable reinforces the counter-hybrid warfare narrative. РБК-Україна reports the police denied widespread looting in Lukyanivka, supporting efforts to counter narratives of internal disorder. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Internal Challenges of RF" Narrative: Butusov Plus video of Russian soldier "catapulting" from vehicle and STERNENKO's video of burning trucks/explosion near bridge in Rostov can be used to highlight RF internal disarray and vulnerabilities. Butusov Plus also mocks Kadyrov's poster in Sevastopol. TASS reports on Moscow flooding and metro disruptions (though not directly military-related) can be leveraged to highlight RF's internal infrastructure challenges. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video mocks Russian airport closures, directly targeting Russian public inconvenience caused by UAF attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing an RF soldier expressing xenophobic and aggressive sentiments towards civilians might negatively impact public perception of military personnel if it gains widespread attention, or be ignored as isolated. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video highlights perceived decline in Donetsk under Russian control, attempting to sow discontent. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video ironically highlights "development and prospects" in Donetsk, implicitly contrasting it with decline. Север.Реалии reports a war participant who killed a girl is being expelled from a university in St. Petersburg, highlighting negative social consequences within RF. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov, which could be framed as a sign of internal RF instability or corruption. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian intelligence claims that the largest Russian banks are preparing for a debt crisis, directly challenging RF's internal economic stability narrative. Север.Реалии reports on a past famine in the Volga region and Urals, and people feeling "unneeded," which UAF can leverage to highlight historical and ongoing internal challenges within RF. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured, highlighting internal RF vulnerabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features individuals claiming to be RF servicemen, which, if implying capture, would highlight internal RF vulnerabilities. TASS reports Miramistin production blocked, which can be leveraged to highlight internal economic issues in RF. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, highlighting a high-profile casualty that can be used to counter RF narratives of minimal losses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video showing a cemetery with numerous graves, likely of soldiers, can be used to highlight significant RF military losses and their societal impact. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage can be used to highlight internal RF societal divisions and propaganda failures. TASS reports a criminal case opened against a journalist for "fakes," which can be used to highlight suppression of free speech and internal dissent within RF. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, provides clear evidence of UAF's ability to inflict damage within Russia, highlighting RF's internal vulnerabilities. ТАСС reports Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, which can be leveraged to show the impact of sanctions on ordinary Russians and RF's economic vulnerabilities. ТАСС reports Volodin has instructed to develop amendments to legislation on prohibiting the purchase of military uniforms abroad, which can be framed as RF struggling with military procurement and relying on foreign sources, highlighting a weakness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • "Transparency and Efficiency" Narrative (Administrative Services): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video demonstrating online pre-registration for Administrative Service Centers (TSNAPs) aims to highlight government efficiency and service provision amidst conflict, a soft power initiative. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 graphic on "Map of Voices" poets initiative aims to project normalcy, cultural preservation, and civilian engagement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on diplomatic meetings in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting efficiency and international engagement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights a Zaporizhzhia taekwondo fighter winning the World Universiade, promoting national pride and positive achievements. Olexander Vilkul, head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, provides photo messages of water supply network modernization, aiming to highlight governmental efficiency and care for civilian well-being. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strategic Messaging: Operatyvnyi ZSU shares Senator Graham's direct challenge to Putin, "Putin, your turn is coming. Trump is going to kick your ass." Colonelcassad shares Senator Graham's comments on Trump's proposed 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, which is a key messaging point for Western pressure on RF. Zelenskyy's public meeting with ministers, ambassador appointments, and setting of diplomatic priorities are strong messages of continued governance and proactive international engagement. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна highlighting UK's "50-day campaign to arm Ukraine" boosts the narrative of strong, continued international support and resupply efforts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's dissemination of information on NATO's 2026-2030 Common Funding Resource Plan for Ukraine strengthens the narrative of long-term Western commitment and institutional support. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative "Gift for Putin" for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, emphasizing the strategic importance of international material support. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on Zelenskyy's dismissal and appointment of new ambassadors further solidifies strategic messaging on effective governance and diplomatic efforts. Zelenskiy / Official video and text on increasing domestic weapons production and auditing international agreements serve as strong strategic messaging to both domestic and international audiences regarding Ukraine's long-term defense strategy. STERNENKO video of Senator Lindsey Graham's comments on Trump's policy towards Russia aims to influence international perceptions of potential US actions. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, indicating strategic focus on future military capabilities. РБК-Україна reports Trump announced new plan for large-scale NATO weapons supplies to Ukraine, reinforcing strong strategic messaging on international support. РБК-Україна reports Germany will help with 5 Patriot systems for Ukraine, a critical strategic success message. STERNENKO reports Ramstein meeting is underway with ministers from 52 countries, underscoring strong international military support. РБК-Україна reports UK has supplied almost 50,000 drones to Ukraine since March, highlighting the scale of international material support. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a meeting of almost 100 Ukrainian diplomatic mission representatives in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting proactive "non-cabinet diplomacy" and international engagement. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, a critical development in international support. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting, highlighting an urgent call for international financial aid. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, reinforcing the message of critical international support requirements. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Danish defense company Terma announced strategic partnership with Ukrainian tech company Odd Systems, indicating continued international industrial cooperation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the UK, which demonstrates a strong NATO deterrence posture that benefits Ukraine's strategic security. STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy's meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot focused on the current situation and further cooperation, reinforcing continued high-level diplomatic support. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, serving as strategic messaging for growing domestic defense capabilities and international partnerships. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil if the US does so, serving as strategic messaging for strengthening economic pressure on Russia. РБК-Україна photo message highlights US call for harsh tariffs against RF partners, serving as strategic messaging to rally European support. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, a significant and immediate reinforcement of international support. Zelenskyy's address to Ukrainian diplomats outlined the main tasks of diplomacy, including promoting Ukraine's interests, holding Russia accountable, and maintaining global security, reinforcing strong strategic messaging. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of negotiations with RF in Istanbul, which can be used as strategic messaging for continued diplomatic efforts. Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries, serving as strategic messaging for expanding diplomatic ties. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides an infographic summarizing the key outcomes of the 29th Ramstein meeting, serving as strategic messaging for continued international military support. Олександр Вілкул's briefing on Kryvyi Rih indicates strategic messaging on maintaining stability and addressing civilian needs locally. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Lithuania will help Ukraine return prisoners of war and abducted children from Russia, as stated by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys, indicating strategic messaging on international humanitarian cooperation. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continued participation in financing Ukrainian defense industry, serving as strategic messaging for continued and specialized international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Humanitarian Concerns: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War's meeting with families of servicemen held in Torez colony, indicates ongoing efforts for POW welfare. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video discusses how public actions of families of prisoners and missing persons influence the exchange process, highlighting the humanitarian aspect and public pressure. Координаційний штаб з питань по питань поводження з військовополоненими reports returned POWs can help release their comrades, offering a positive humanitarian message. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo message claims 5 RF personnel were captured and are requesting exchange for Azovstal defenders, highlighting a potential humanitarian exchange opportunity. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reports a meeting with families of servicemen held in Perm Krai, Russia, indicating continued efforts to address the humanitarian concerns of POWs. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Lithuania will help Ukraine return prisoners of war and abducted children from Russia, as stated by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys, directly addressing humanitarian concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Morale Messaging: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos captioned "Unbreakable warriors of Mykolaiv brigade," aiming to boost morale and highlight the resilience of UAF personnel. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) video, despite content on baking, carries a morale-boosting caption. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine congratulates Serhiy Prytula's Charity Foundation on its 5th anniversary, boosting morale related to volunteer and support efforts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos of 61st OMBr tank crews training, aiming to boost morale and highlight UAF combat proficiency and readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video emphasizing human resilience after a Shahed strike is a direct morale booster. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video detailing effective and emotional artillery work, with a focus on "fighting for children," aims to boost morale and rally support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine: Public sentiment is under extreme and unprecedented pressure due to the widespread and continuous air raid alerts, strategic missile launches from Tu-95MS, ballistic missile use, the Kinzhal hypersonic threat, and the sheer volume of Shahed UAVs on Kyiv. Confirmed strikes and fires in Kyiv, especially with a confirmed fatality and injuries (now 9), residential building damage, kindergarten fire, and metro station damage, will further increase anxiety and fear, significantly impacting morale in the capital. The missile threat to central Ukrainian industrial and logistical hubs, now extending significantly westward into regions previously considered safer (Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, particularly with the Kinzhal and confirmed cluster munition use), will cause new widespread fear and undermine a sense of security across the entire country. The impact of Kinzhal on Ivano-Frankivsk will be psychologically significant given its speed and previous difficulty of interception. New casualties in Zaporizhzhia (2 fatalities, 1 wounded), Dnipropetrovsk (2 fatalities), Sloviansk (4 fatalities), Chernivtsi (4 fatalities), and Kherson (7 injured) will add to the national toll. The video from "Шеф Hayabusa" titled "Morning in Kyiv after the night attack" showing smoke plumes will emphasize the ongoing threat. Zelenskyy's video of ongoing damage and rescue efforts across multiple regions will reinforce the widespread impact on civilian life and morale. KMVA's reporting of 9 injured and PS ZSU reporting over fifteen direct hits in Kyiv will heighten public anxiety. The full restoration of Lukyanivska metro station will offer a small boost to public confidence in rapid restoration. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's morale-boosting photos of "unbreakable warriors" are likely in response to maintaining public sentiment during sustained attacks. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat, likely increasing public anxiety in these regions. STERNENKO confirms Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles, which will contribute to widespread public fear. РБК-Україна video of French Foreign Minister visiting Kyiv strike sites, highlighting civilian damage, reinforces the scale of impact on public sentiment. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports a tractor driver was blown up by a mine in a field in Balakliia community, which will increase public fear regarding civilian safety in de-occupied or contested areas. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports at least 54 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, including Kharkiv city, were affected by enemy strikes over the past week, confirming widespread disruption and anxiety. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, indicating a setback for civilian infrastructure. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Kyiv increased to nine, intensifying public concern. ASTRA photos and videos show significant damage to residential buildings in Kyiv, reinforcing public anxiety. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports looting of equipment from a damaged store, which could negatively impact public morale due to perceived internal disorder. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video highlights the perceived decline in Donetsk, which may resonate with those experiencing similar conditions or fuel discontent. DeepState video discussing the importance of drones for Ukraine's defense, even involving civilians in training, aims to boost morale through self-reliance and innovation. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen held in Torez colony, indicating ongoing humanitarian concerns that impact public morale. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) video, while showing baking, is captioned "She was not believed, but she showed how strong in spirit she is," suggesting an underlying narrative of resilience and boosting morale. Операція Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claiming Ukraine has run out of cemetery space, if picked up by Ukrainian social media, would severely impact morale. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, with video showing multiple explosions and fires in an urban area at night, which will significantly exacerbate public fear and anxiety in the capital. РБК-Україна video shows patrol police rescuing people after the Kyiv shelling illustrates the scale of the setback for civilian safety. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion for weapons procurement, a critical financial shortfall that may impact public morale regarding the long-term sustainability of the war effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the enemy is shooting down more Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, which may create concern about UAF's ability to maintain battlefield awareness. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports returned POWs can help release their comrades, which offers a boost to morale for families of POWs and the broader public. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, which will increase public anxiety in the region. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which will likely be perceived as a positive action by Ukrainian society, reinforcing morale in the cultural information space. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, which will boost public confidence in Ukraine's self-sufficiency and international partnerships. Oleg Sinegubov reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled, reinforcing anxiety in the eastern regions. Olexander Vilkul, head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, provides photo messages of water supply network modernization in progress, indicating efforts to maintain normalcy and address public needs. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video footage of drones and equipment being provided as aid for the Zaporizhzhia front, which will positively impact morale and public confidence in the military. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reports a meeting with families of servicemen held in Perm Krai, Russia, which addresses a key humanitarian concern for Ukrainian families and public sentiment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides photos of civilian damage, which will negatively impact public sentiment due to continued terror. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of negotiations with RF in Istanbul, which may generate mixed sentiment - hope for peace but also caution about RF intentions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows initial minutes after a Shahed strike in Lukyanivka, Kyiv, with people evacuating and debris, reinforcing public anxiety and fear. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports attacks on Nikopol district with multiple photos of damaged civilian structures, increasing public fear and negatively impacting morale. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video features a Ukrainian soldier discussing harsh trench warfare conditions, which may negatively impact morale by highlighting the brutality of the conflict and the constant threat faced by soldiers. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD, is likely to negatively impact public sentiment and confidence if it gains traction. Alex Parker Returns photo message claims a Member of Parliament's apartment in Kyiv was destroyed near the Artem factory, which could negatively impact public sentiment if it fuels resentment towards officials. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video of artillery fire with emotional narration will aim to boost public morale by portraying UAF effectiveness and resolve, reinforcing a sense of fighting for a just cause. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: Public sentiment is being managed by narratives of RF military success (e.g., AD intercepts over Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod, sarcastic claims of Kyiv impacts, claims of AD exhaustion, claimed ground victories, successful Kinzhal strike) and portraying Russia as resilient. Milblogger commentary indicates an attempt to foster a sense of superiority and control over the conflict, reinforcing domestic support. Internal incidents (power outages, accidents, and now train delays in Rostov due to UAF UAVs, and Moscow flooding) are unlikely to significantly impact public sentiment related to the conflict but may slightly divert attention and foster a "war at home" sentiment. Reports of two civilians injured in Belgorod from UAF UAVs could reinforce the "victimhood" narrative. "ASTRA" reports on "deported Ukrainians" protesting at a border checkpoint could indicate a minor domestic friction point but likely limited impact. Sever.Realii reports airports still "overcrowded" due to mass flight cancellations, indicating a persistent source of public frustration. Moscow metro disruption also impacts civilian life and could contribute to negative sentiment. The detention of a Moldovan national for espionage will likely increase vigilance and support for counter-intelligence measures. TASS confirmation of Vnukovo airport resuming operations and over 50 trains delayed at Kamianolomni station will be key in shaping public perception of both resilience and vulnerability. TASS video of Moscow flooding and metro pedestrian tunnel closure also brings attention to internal challenges. RF milbloggers' exploitation of International Math Olympiad results (Alex Parker Returns) and TCC/Romani interaction (Alex Parker Returns) aims to influence public opinion through cultural and social narratives. Новости Москвы urging Moscow residents not to go outside due to rain indicates public life disruption and potential frustration with environmental factors. Sever.Realii reports on the inclusion of "fake news" and "discreditation" cases in the list of terrorists and extremists, which could increase public fear and self-censorship, impacting freedom of expression. Alex Parker Returns's photo with the caption "We are a generation of men raised by women" might be an attempt at internal societal commentary or morale boosting, but its direct impact on public sentiment related to the war is unclear. ASTRA reports a Russian war participant killed his wife in Tyumen Oblast and wants to return to the front, which could negatively impact public perception of returning soldiers, though it's an isolated incident. Transport movement blocked in Moscow due to bad weather, indicating continued public inconvenience. TASS photos confirm flooding on Durova Street in Moscow, reinforcing civilian disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Стрелков Игорь Иванович's channel posts about Igor Strelkov's arrest, portraying him as a "true patriot" and implying "enemies of Russia" are undermining the country, reflecting internal dissent and grievances among a segment of the public. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports Crimean Bridge queue reached 2000 vehicles, which will cause significant frustration for civilian travelers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash na Донбассе video on "fishing inspectors and poachers" can be used internally to demonstrate law enforcement efforts, potentially improving public confidence in governance. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing an RF soldier expressing xenophobic and aggressive sentiments towards civilians might negatively impact public perception of military personnel if it gains widespread attention, or be ignored as isolated. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife on their wedding night in Tyumen Oblast, which could generate public concern about returning military personnel and their integration into society. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former Ukrainian official, was found dead in a pool in Spain, which could feed into public narratives about the risks faced by those involved in the conflict, regardless of their allegiance. ТАСС reports on the FIDE decision regarding Russian chess, which might be presented as a positive development for Russian public morale, showing international acceptance. ТАСС reports on proposals for remote work during bad weather, aiming to project government care and mitigate public inconvenience. ТАСС reports on migrant language requirements, which could resonate with some segments of the public concerned about social issues. Новости Москвы video shows flooding inside an elite residential complex in Moscow, confirming urban disruption from weather and potentially impacting public confidence in infrastructure. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on air space perimeter at Sheremetyevo airport, causing public inconvenience. ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo resumed operations without restrictions, which would be a positive for public sentiment. ТАСС reports at least 20 people injured in Bangladesh Air Force plane crash, a non-military event, but if linked to broader instability, could impact public sentiment. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, which could reassure the public about security efforts. Север.Реалии reports a war participant who killed a girl is being expelled from a university in St. Petersburg, which could impact public trust and perceptions of returning soldiers. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov, which could lead to increased public scrutiny of corruption. Kotsnews photo message at an airport aims to project normalcy and stability, thus influencing public sentiment positively regarding internal conditions. ТАСС reports Putin commented on the birth rate, indicating a focus on social stability. Новости Москвы reports American scientists created a universal mRNA vaccine for cancer, a non-military piece of information that can be used to project a focus on scientific advancement. ТАСС reports 15 "Tavriya" trains are delayed in communication with Crimea, directly impacting public sentiment due to travel disruption. Новости Москвы reports trains in Moscow are delayed due to weather, further impacting public convenience. ТАСС reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce compensation for cars flooded due to heavy rains, acknowledging and responding to public frustration with infrastructure issues. ASTRA reports Russia plans to introduce fines for cryptocurrency payments starting in 2026, which may impact public sentiment among cryptocurrency users. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, which could evoke mixed public sentiment, potentially alarming some and affirming others, reflecting internal political divides. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" plans to restore its schedule by the evening of July 22, and other airlines by the end of the day, aiming to project a return to normalcy and stable operations. ТАСС reports 118 flights cancelled and 203 flights delayed at Moscow region airports and Pulkovo, indicating ongoing public inconvenience but also transparent reporting. TASS reports a gas explosion in Novorossiysk, a domestic incident with potential for negative public sentiment if perceived as a widespread safety issue. TASS reports Putin assigned the title of Honored Artist to Konstantin Bogomolov, a civilian development aimed at highlighting cultural contributions and normalcy. TASS reports a new bill provides free higher education for SVO participants, reinforcing social support and normalcy. ASTRA reports dozens of trains delayed at Paveletsky railway station due to rain, confirming public inconvenience. ТАСС reports Passenger trains, delayed due to incidents in Rostov Oblast, are being introduced into schedule, per Russian Railways, aiming to mitigate public frustration regarding transportation disruptions. Новости Москвы photo message "Raise demography by 23:00" alongside a photo of a married couple, indicates RF's continued emphasis on demographic growth and traditional family values, which is likely to be received positively by conservative segments of the public. Север.Реалии reports on a past famine in the Volga region and Urals, and people feeling "unneeded," which could evoke negative public sentiment and historical grievances. Два майора photo message "Extremely necessary project in the conditions of the SVO" with an image of ski trails, might elicit positive public sentiment by projecting normalcy and internal development, or indifference if seen as irrelevant to the conflict. TASS reports FAS instructed its regional offices to increase price control for drinking water and food in airports, which aims to improve public sentiment by addressing consumer concerns during travel disruptions. TASS blocking Miramistin production, while impacting civilian supply, can be framed as the state exercising control for stability or security. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, indicating RF's intent to reinforce control over information. ASTRA's report on the removal of Kadyrov's portrait in Sevastopol due to public outrage contradicts the "stability" narrative, demonstrating internal friction within RF society. Colonelcassad's satirical posts about Tikhanovsky aim to influence domestic public opinion by discrediting opposition figures. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, aiming to influence domestic public opinion by addressing internal concerns and deflecting criticism. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant for him, which will be used to rally public support for figures facing perceived external pressure. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," which may create public concern about perceived external threats. Операция Z reports a drone hitting a residential house roof near Moscow, which may increase public anxiety about drone attacks and support calls for stronger defense. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, will negatively impact public sentiment and increase anxiety about homeland security. Alex Parker Returns reports FSB turning away foreigners at the border for subscriptions to pro-Ukrainian channels, which will be viewed positively by hardliners but may cause concern for others regarding freedom of information. TASS photo and text show a proposal to ban feeding stray animals near apartment buildings, which is likely to have a mixed reception based on individual views on animal welfare and public order. ТАСС video and text featuring Konstantin Bogomolov accepting his "Honored Artist" title from Putin aims to boost public morale by celebrating figures who align with state values. ТАСС photo and text show a proposal to halve the cost of food in airports if operations are restricted for more than 3 hours, which would be positively received by the public as a measure to mitigate inconvenience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Neutral/International: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the cancellation of pro-Russian conductor Gergiev's performance in Italy, which impacts the cultural domain and reflects a continued international stance against RF. TASS reports US will urge Europe to follow its example on 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, signaling potential international economic friction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, indicating a potential for international sporting disputes. Mash на Донбассе photo message from the Central Asian International Economic Forum in Dushanbe indicates continued international diplomatic and economic engagement, particularly with Central Asian countries, which is a neutral development but could be spun positively or negatively depending on the actors involved. TASS reports on the situation in Russian airports following restrictions, indicating an effort to provide factual updates on the status of civilian travel. TASS reports a round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine may take place in Istanbul on July 24-25, indicating potential diplomatic developments that would be seen as neutral until outcomes are known. Alex Parker Returns shares photos/video of a building with historical military portraits, which is a neutral cultural observation. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, a neutral observation of internal RF legislative process. TASS reports UK sanctions against 134 vessels linked to Russia are a neutral observation of international diplomatic developments. MoD Russia video and photos of joint military tactical exercises with Uzbekistan in Termez, Uzbekistan, are a neutral observation of international military cooperation. TASS reports on the death of actress Tatiana Egorova, which is a neutral civilian news item. TASS reports a major oil and gas field has been discovered in Poland, one of the largest in Europe in the last decade, as announced by CEP. This is a significant economic development that could impact regional energy dynamics, but does not directly pertain to current military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Ukraine: The widespread and intense nature of the current RF aerial attacks, especially the use of Tu-95MS and ballistic/hypersonic missiles, the significant expansion into Western Ukraine, and the confirmed fatalities/injuries, will likely increase international pressure for accelerated military aid, particularly advanced AD systems capable of countering cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and specifically hypersonic missiles, and defending critical infrastructure, especially in the Western regions critical for aid delivery. TASS reports UK planning a 50-day campaign to arm Ukraine, which is a positive development for UAF resource requirements. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot is traveling to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support. President Zelenskyy's appointment of 16 new ambassadors and setting of diplomatic priorities indicates continued proactive international engagement and aims to bolster diplomatic support. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm the UK is launching a "50-day campaign to arm Ukraine," bolstering confidence in sustained international military aid. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ highlights NATO's 2026-2030 Common Funding Resource Plan in support of Ukraine, signaling long-term institutional commitment from the alliance. РБК-Україна photos show French Foreign Minister visiting Kyiv strike sites, confirming high-level international attention to the attacks and likely fostering calls for more support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Czech initiative "Gift for Putin" for 6 D-30 howitzers for UAF, demonstrating tangible international support. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy has dismissed and appointed new ambassadors, demonstrating continued diplomatic engagement and reform. Zelenskiy / Official video and text on increasing domestic weapons production and auditing international agreements reinforce Ukraine's commitment to self-sufficiency and strategic partnerships. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy instructed Shmyhal and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to conduct an audit of defense agreements with partners, reinforcing transparency and accountability for international support. Оперативний ЗСУ video of Colombian fighters arriving, highlighting foreign volunteer support. DeepState video discusses international support for Ukraine's drone program, emphasizing its effectiveness. РБК-Україна video on 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade Artillery requesting REB means can be used to highlight specific international aid requirements. РБК-Україна reports Trump announced new plan for large-scale NATO weapons supplies to Ukraine, and Britain supports it, indicating potential significant future international military aid. РБК-Україна reports Germany will help with 5 Patriot systems for Ukraine, a major diplomatic success for AD. STERNENKO reports Ramstein meeting is underway with ministers from 52 countries, underscoring strong international military support. РБК-Україна reports UK has supplied almost 50,000 drones to Ukraine since March, highlighting the scale of international material support. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a meeting of almost 100 Ukrainian diplomatic mission representatives in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting proactive "non-cabinet diplomacy" and international engagement. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will provide 5 Patriot systems and ammunition to Ukraine, a critical development in international support. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover the gap in weapons procurement for the current year, as stated by Minister of Defense Shmyhal at the Ramstein meeting, highlighting an urgent call for international financial aid. TASS reports Britain has transferred $200 million of a planned $940 million in air defense assets and artillery shells to Ukraine this year, indicating ongoing but insufficient international material support. РБК-Україна reports Syrskyi appealed for more AD systems and missiles at Ramstein, reinforcing the message of critical international support requirements. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Danish defense company Terma announced strategic partnership with Ukrainian tech company Odd Systems, indicating continued international industrial cooperation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the UK, which demonstrates a strong NATO deterrence posture that benefits Ukraine's strategic security. STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy's meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot focused on the current situation and further cooperation, reinforcing continued high-level diplomatic support. РБК-Україна photo message highlights French companies are ready to start drone production in Ukraine, indicating strong international industrial support and a shift towards co-production. Оперативний ЗСУ reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Europe to introduce secondary tariffs against Russian oil if the US does so, indicating continued Western diplomatic efforts to economically pressure RF, which benefits Ukraine. STERNENKO reports Germany and USA have agreed to transfer five Patriot systems to Ukraine "as soon as possible" following the Ramstein meeting, a significant and immediate reinforcement of international support. Zelenskyy's address to Ukrainian diplomats outlined the main tasks of diplomacy, including promoting Ukraine's interests, holding Russia accountable, and maintaining global security, reinforcing strong strategic messaging. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of negotiations with RF in Istanbul, which can be used as strategic messaging for continued diplomatic efforts. Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, announced a new cooperation format with Benelux countries, demonstrating successful diplomatic expansion. Воин DV reports that British Defense Minister John Healey plans to announce significant military aid for Ukraine at Ramstein, including a "50-day campaign" to arm Ukraine, indicating robust and sustained international support. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine plans to open four new embassies by the end of the year, demonstrating proactive diplomatic expansion. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the US and Germany have agreed to supply Ukraine with 5 Patriot systems, according to German Defense Minister Pistorius, confirming a major diplomatic success and critical military aid. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Lithuania will help Ukraine return prisoners of war and abducted children from Russia, as stated by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys, indicating continued international support for humanitarian efforts. STERNENKO reports Canada will allocate 14.6 million USD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks and continued participation in financing Ukrainian defense industry, confirming additional specialized international financial support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia: China's announced "decisive measures" in response to EU sanctions on Russia indicate continued diplomatic and economic support for RF from Beijing, potentially undermining Western efforts to isolate Russia. The upcoming EU/European Council visit to China on 24 JUL may be framed by RF as a sign of continued engagement despite Western sanctions. Independent Turkce reporting on potential Istanbul negotiations 23-24 July implies continued diplomatic avenues, potentially favorable to RF by showing willingness to negotiate. Senator Lindsey Graham's comments on Trump's potential tariffs on countries buying Russian oil suggest potential future economic pressure on RF. Воин DV reports on Trump-Xi meeting possibilities, suggesting potential diplomatic shifts. Colonelcassad highlights Senator Graham's comments on Trump's proposed 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, indicating an awareness of potential future economic pressure from the US. TASS reports Iranian official delivering message to Putin, indicating continued diplomatic engagement with "friendly" states. TASS reports an expected round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine in Istanbul at the end of the current week, indicating a potential diplomatic avenue and a point of interest for international observers. Воин DV also reports the expected Istanbul negotiations, lending additional credibility to the claim. TASS reports a trilateral meeting (China, RF, Iran) on the Iranian nuclear program on July 22, showcasing Russia's continued diplomatic relevance and cooperation with non-Western powers. Hungary discussed with Serbia construction of an oil pipeline for Russian oil supplies, involving Russian representatives, confirming continued economic cooperation with non-Western partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts photo with caption about "American bulldozer of politics" and Trump's presidency, which, given the context, could be interpreted as a subtle message about Western political instability to international audiences. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ТАСС reports FIDE (International Chess Federation) allowed the Russian women's team to participate in the World Team Chess Championship under the FIDE flag, representing a diplomatic success in sports. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russia will await official verdicts if Azerbaijan decides to sue Russia, indicating a diplomatic dispute with a close partner, potentially undermining RF's regional influence. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Moscow and Baku are in a difficult period but hopes it will pass, acknowledging a diplomatic challenge. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russia respects Azerbaijanis and persecutes only those who violate the law, attempting to mend diplomatic ties. ТАСС reports Peskov stated a meeting between Putin and Trump in Beijing in September is possible if Trump attends, signaling potential high-level diplomatic engagements. Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, which could be framed by RF as a diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) ASTRA reports EU sanctions against an Iranian oil magnate for trade with Russia, indicating continued Western pressure on RF allies. ТАСС reports foreigners can visit Karabakh from July 23, potentially showcasing Russia's role in regional stability. РБК-Україна reports Kremlin is "for" holding a third round of negotiations with Ukraine, indicating a potential diplomatic opening. РБК-Україна reports Putin-Trump meeting in Beijing is possible, if Trump attends, emphasizing potential high-level diplomatic shifts. Colonelcassad reports Russia and Iran began joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea, indicating continued military-diplomatic cooperation. ТАСС reports the US will urge Europe to follow its example if it imposes 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, indicating an awareness of and response to potential Western economic pressure. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, indicating RF's use of non-military events to highlight perceived international bias. Mash на Донбассе photo message from the Central Asian International Economic Forum in Dushanbe indicates Russia's continued diplomatic and economic engagement with Central Asian partners, serving to counter Western isolation efforts. РБК-Україна photo message highlights US call for harsh tariffs against RF partners, which RF will use to demonstrate Western efforts to isolate and harm Russia. TASS reports a round of negotiations between RF and Ukraine may take place in Istanbul on July 24-25, signaling a potential diplomatic development. TASS reports UK sanctions against 134 vessels allegedly linked to Russia, representing a new international diplomatic setback for RF. TASS reports that Ministers of Defense of Iran and Russia discussed military cooperation in Moscow, confirming continued military-diplomatic engagement. MoD Russia video and photos of joint military tactical exercises with Uzbekistan in Termez, Uzbekistan, demonstrate continued military-diplomatic cooperation and projection of influence. ТАСС reports Rosselkhozbank (Russian Agricultural Bank) has warned of temporary difficulties with UnionPay cards in the EU, with restrictions on transactions since July 20, which highlights the continued impact of international sanctions on Russian financial services and could be leveraged by RF to portray itself as a victim of Western economic warfare. Север.Реалии reports that the Russian General Prosecutor's Office has declared the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation "undesirable," which may be framed by RF as a necessary measure to counter perceived foreign interference or hostile foreign influence, particularly from Western-aligned NGOs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Neutral/International: TASS reports the US and China will hold bilateral talks soon, covering more than just trade, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement between major global powers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the cancellation of pro-Russian conductor Gergiev's performance in Italy, which impacts the cultural domain and reflects a continued international cultural pushback against RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a major oil and gas field has been discovered in Poland, one of the largest in Europe in the last decade, as announced by CEP. This is a significant economic development that could impact regional energy dynamics, but does not directly pertain to current military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
  • Sustained Massed Aerial Attack with Adaptive Tactics, Focus on Central/Northern/Western Infrastructure (IMMEDIATE - 0-12 hours, NOW INCLUDING KINZHAL ON KYIV, ADAPTED SHAHDED USE): RF will continue and likely execute additional waves of its large-scale strategic missile (cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic) and UAV strikes. These attacks will continue to employ adaptive "chaotic movement" tactics and will prioritize deep targeting of central (Poltava, Kremenсhuk, Kropyvnytskyi, Cherkasy, Sumy), northern (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv), eastern (Kharkiv), and now significantly western (Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk) Ukraine. Primary targets will remain critical infrastructure (energy, transport hubs, industrial sites, particularly those supporting Western aid logistics, including drone production facilities), major population centers (with increased civilian casualties), and military airfields/industrial sites. The immediate objective is to severely disrupt or interdict internal Ukrainian logistics and saturate UAF AD. KAB launches will continue on frontline areas (Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv), as evidenced by claims in Yanvarskyi and Ivanivka. The new UAV threat for Cherkasy Oblast aligns with this. TASS reports RF MoD claims strikes, including Kinzhal missiles, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Военкор Котенок provides a press release from RF MoD claiming a grouped strike with high-precision long-range air, ground, and sea-based weapons, including aeroballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and strike UAVs, against Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Kryvyi Rih amid ballistic missile threat. High-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi and threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Kirovohrad Oblast attacked by ballistic missiles. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of threat of aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, consistent with a pre-attack shaping for deeper strikes. Colonelcassad shares videos showing the aftermath of strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv, visually confirming the continued intent for deep strikes. Alex Parker Returns video shows damaged McDonald's restaurant and a bank in Kyiv after a strike, indicating that civilian and commercial targets will continue to be hit. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni, Prymorske, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, indicating continued aviation activity on frontline areas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo message and caption "Massive strike on Ukrainian territory" reinforces the MLCOA of sustained deep strikes. Рыбарь video shows smoke plumes and explosions over a city, and damage to a multi-story building, consistent with sustained aerial attacks. Colonelcassad reports three Kinzhal hypersonic missile impacts on enemy targets in Kyiv on 21 July 2025, confirming the MLCOA of continued high-value targeting of the capital. Colonelcassad's claim of a direct hit on a Ukrainian kamikaze drone production facility in Kyiv indicates continued targeting of military-industrial complex. Colonelcassad's claim of a missile strike on a Black Sea gas platform suggests continued targeting of maritime infrastructure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы on Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued use of guided aviation munitions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, consistent with continued deep targeting of Eastern urban centers. Воин DV provides video footage of "FABing" by pilots of the 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense against "boy" positions in Poltavka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), confirming continued precision guided munition use on the front lines. Colonelcassad's photo of a radar monitoring display with "Geranium" UAV and missile movements suggests continued aerial activity and coordination. Alex Parker Returns video explicitly states the scaling of "Geranium" (Shahed) production for frontline use in Sumy Oblast, indicating the MLCOA of adapting these systems for closer-range tactical support in addition to deep strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ video from Ivanteievka, Moscow region, showing a residential building on fire after RF AD shot down a UAV, suggests the MLCOA of continued UAF drone strikes on RF territory, which RF will respond to with AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Intensified Information Offensive Leveraging "Success" and Demoralization (Concurrent): RF will continue to rapidly disseminate propaganda framing successful strikes, exaggerated UAF losses, and will increasingly seek to leverage selective or decontextualized commentary and fabricating claims to undermine UAF morale and justify their actions. They will particularly mock UAF AD capabilities in response to engagements, amplify UAF attacks on Moscow and their domestic impact (e.g., train delays) to garner domestic support, and likely spread disinformation about Western aid interdiction. They will also highlight claimed ground victories (e.g., "Popov Yar", Bila Hora, Malaya Tokmachka) and UAF equipment destruction (e.g., Bradley), and use claimed POW statements to demoralize UAF. RF milbloggers will likely continue to exploit non-military topics (e.g., academic results, social issues) for propaganda purposes. They will heavily publicize internal counter-intelligence successes (St. Petersburg detention) to show effective homeland security. They will also attempt to undermine Ukrainian diplomatic efforts by portraying them as insincere. TASS reports RF MoD claims destruction of 3 Patriot SAM launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar, and high UAF personnel losses, reinforcing demoralization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Басурин о главном video claims Belaya Gora capture is significant for logistics to Kostiantynivka, to demonstrate continued RF ground tactical success. ТАСС reports FIDE allowing Russian women's chess team to compete under FIDE flag will be used to show international "normalcy." ТАСС reports on proposals for remote work during bad weather will be used to project government care. Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical video of Donald Trump depicting Barack Obama's arrest by the FBI, will be used to highlight US internal political dysfunction. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Alex Parker Returns shares photos and text on a new railway construction agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia, will be used to project Russian diplomatic success. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Старше Эдды advertising truck bed caps and covers may be used as subtle internal propaganda for resilience/self-sufficiency. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video showing the restoration of a memorial will be used to project care for historical memory. ТАСС reports Peskov's comments on Azerbaijan-Russia relations and a potential meeting between Putin and Trump will be used to project diplomatic influence. ТАСС reports on migrant language requirements will be used to project internal policy control. Два майора video of an alleged Ukrainian intelligence agent detention in St. Petersburg, linked to an 80-drone attack plan, reinforces the narrative of successful counter-intelligence and Ukrainian malevolence. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) photo message on NABU corruption directly attempts to portray disunity and institutional decay within Ukraine. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, reinforcing the narrative of successful counter-terrorism efforts. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, will be used to support information operations. Kotsnews photo message at an airport aims to project normalcy and stability to counter disruptive narratives. Старше Эдды's statement about Ukrainian military tactics will be used for demoralization. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claiming Ukraine has run out of cemetery space will be used to spread panic and demoralization. ASTRA video shows the installation of a monument to the former head of NKVD in Volgograd, indicating a continued effort to shape historical narratives and reinforce state control. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими video on the influence of public actions on prisoner exchanges, highlights RF's intent to counter these efforts through propaganda. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video on "Mobilization on wheels" aims to mock UAF recruitment. Басурин о главном uses a quote regarding Condoleezza Rice's excitement about Trump's 50-day ultimatum, reinforcing attempts to exploit US political developments. TASS reports a new bill providing free higher education for SVO participants, which will be used to boost domestic support and normalize military service. ТАСС reports Director Konstantin Bogomolov, known for supporting RF actions, has been added to Ukraine's extremist Myrotvorets website, which RF will use to portray Ukraine as infringing on freedom of expression or targeting cultural figures. ASTRA reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes," indicating RF's continued suppression of independent media and control of the information space. ТАСС reports Russian synchronized swimmers claiming Chinese rivals were unfairly awarded a World Championship element, used to project a narrative of victimhood or unfairness in international contexts. Рыбарь's cynical quote on "Krivoy Rog" indicates continued demoralizing propaganda and attempts to portray Ukrainian weakness or incompetence. TASS reports Ukraine's buying tickets to Gergiev's concert to disrupt it, aiming to portray Ukrainian actions negatively. Басурин о главном's disinformation about Ukrainian cemeteries running out of space indicates a continued intensified information offensive. TASS reports blocking Miramistin production, which can be leveraged to justify state control. TASS reports Shadiev invited to Duma for fines on extremist searches, indicating RF's intent to reinforce control over information. TASS reports on the death of Gennady Starunov, who had ties to Putin, will be used for internal glorification and to normalize military losses. Alex Parker Returns explicitly frames Zelenskyy's negotiation proposal as a "military dictator" seeking to gain time, undermining Ukrainian diplomatic efforts. Colonelcassad's satirical posts about Tikhanovsky will continue to attempt to discredit opposition figures. Alex Parker Returns posts multiple photos related to a Russian municipal head banning "Russian fascism" and claiming social tolerance, indicating a continued complex information offensive addressing internal social dynamics. TASS reports Oleg Gazmanov's comments on Ukraine's search warrant for him, which will be used to reinforce the "RF victimhood" narrative. Рыбарь posts images claiming "Romanian Nazis again in Moldova," used to stir regional tensions and justify RF actions. Операция Z reports a drone hitting a residential house roof near Moscow, used to highlight perceived Ukrainian aggression against civilian targets. НгП раZVедка video, mocking Ukrainian AD with a 'zenith-missile spitz' after an air strike, indicates a continued intensified information offensive to undermine Ukrainian defense capabilities and morale. Alex Parker Returns is also attempting to use the residential address of a Ukrainian Member of Parliament in Kyiv, which was affected by the recent strikes, to create social discord and potentially incite public resentment, by suggesting he is privileged and should "collect donations" for himself. ТАСС video and text featuring Konstantin Bogomolov accepting his "Honored Artist" title from Putin will be used to project normalcy, stability, and cultural support for the war. Басурин о главном photo, titled "New batch of imported scrap metal," showing damaged military equipment, is a direct propaganda attempt to highlight Ukrainian/Western equipment losses and demoralize UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 text announcing additional social support for combat veterans is internal propaganda aimed at boosting morale and supporting military personnel, suggesting a continued focus on managing public opinion internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued Attritional Ground Operations in Eastern Ukraine and Southern Axis: RF forces will continue to press attritional assaults, particularly around Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, seeking to gain incremental territorial advantage and inflict maximum UAF losses. "Воин DV" post supports this, indicating ongoing ground and air support for advances in the East. Zvиздец Мангусту's assessment suggests intensified efforts on the Pokrovsk direction. DeepState's report of RF advances in Donetsk Oblast supports continued attritional pressure. The claimed capture of Popov Yar reinforces this. RF claims of a new front opened in Kharkiv Oblast will lead to increased reconnaissance and probing attacks to draw UAF reserves. Басурин о главном video confirms continued Russian military operations in Donetsk region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad shares map showing changes over past 24 hours, indicating continued positional changes on the front line. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV video claims destruction of a UAF 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer on the South-Donetsk direction, indicating continued focus on degrading UAF artillery assets. Два майора video shows a drone operator stating he is from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division, 20th Motor Rifle Division, operating in the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating continued ground pressure in that area. Оперативний ЗСУ video claims SSO eliminated a group of Russians attempting to set up a new position, suggesting continued Russian ground efforts and UAF counter-action. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone strike on a camouflaged position in Kursk Oblast, indicating continued probing or targeting of border areas. Воин DV video showing drone operators bombing "enemy holes" confirms continued tactical ground engagement. Liveuamap Source reports multiple clashes across various axes, reinforcing the MLCOA of continued attritional ground operations. Colonelcassad's video showcasing a reconnaissance UGV indicates the continued development and integration of unmanned systems into ground operations. Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) video shows continued drone reconnaissance and attacks in Pokrovsk, reinforcing the MLCOA of attritional ground operations. Воин DV video showing a drone strike on an enemy robotic platform, confirming continued efforts to target UAF logistical support. Народная милиция ДНР channel claiming "epic elimination of UAF militants thanks to radio intercepts" suggests a continuation of targeting based on tactical intelligence. TASS video claims RF forces destroyed two UAF groups attempting to leave Yanvarskyi, indicating continued targeting of UAF personnel movements. Воин DV reports on ongoing fighting in Southern-Donetsk direction, indicating continued ground engagement. Colonelcassad's claim of a Russian breakthrough in Malaya Tokmachka, if verified, indicates that RF will likely exploit this perceived success with further offensive actions in the Southern axis. MoD Russia video shows a T-72B3M tank crew destroying an AFU stronghold near Zeleny Gai, reinforcing the MLCOA of continued RF ground offensive capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of engagements against enemy personnel and positions, confirming continued RF ground force deployments and UAF counter-tactics. Colonelcassad's video of a Lancet strike on a UAF M777 howitzer suggests a continued focus on destroying UAF artillery in frontline areas. ТАСС video shows an FPV drone strike destroying a UAF BMP-3, reinforcing the MLCOA of continued tactical drone application in ground operations. STERNENKO video of Border Guard Service 'Phoenix' detachment holding back Russian advances in Donetsk indicates continued RF ground pressure. Два майора video of casualty evacuation in Sumy Oblast reinforces the MLCOA of continued ground engagements on this axis. Colonelcassad photo claims that assault troops of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing in the Bila Hora area on the Kostiantynivka direction, confirming the MLCOA of continued localized ground offensives. Kotsnews video shows an FPV drone strike on enemy personnel in a field, which RF claims is a "PVD," reinforcing the MLCOA of continued tactical drone application in ground operations and targeting small UAF formations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shaping Operations on Northern Axis: RF will continue and potentially intensify reconnaissance-in-force operations, artillery, and KAB/UAV strikes on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to probe defenses and set conditions for a potential future offensive, including establishing a bridgehead in Kursk Oblast. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on affected settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued shaping operations and strikes. Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction, confirming persistent RF efforts to shape this axis. Олег Синєгубов reports Perovske, Zolochiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, was shelled, consistent with continued shaping operations in border areas. Два майора video of casualty evacuation in Sumy Oblast indicates continued RF ground activity, likely reconnaissance or probing attacks, to shape the Northern axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aggressive Counter-Intelligence and Security Operations within RF: RF will intensify efforts to identify and neutralize perceived Ukrainian intelligence assets and sympathizers within its borders, as evidenced by the Ryazan detention and continued publicization of such arrests (St. Petersburg detention). Военкор Котенок video and text confirms detention of an agent of Ukrainian special services in St. Petersburg, indicating continued aggressive counter-intelligence efforts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники channel reports a contract soldier killed his wife in Tyumen Oblast, which, while not a direct intelligence operation, could be used to justify further internal controls or propaganda regarding the behavior of military personnel. ТАСС reports Igor Hrushevsky, former Ukrainian official, was found dead in Spain, could be framed by RF as a successful elimination of a target. Два майора video on the detention of a Ukrainian intelligence agent in St. Petersburg confirms continued aggressive counter-intelligence efforts targeting military facilities. ТАСС reports all defendants in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case have been brought to military court, indicating continued focus on internal security threats. Операция Z reports an ex-official of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was found dead in the same complex where Kuzminov was killed, reinforcing the MLCOA of aggressive counter-intelligence. ТАСС reports the Investigative Committee is preparing to file new charges against former Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov, indicating continued internal security actions against high-profile figures. ТАСС reports entry to Russian seaports for foreign vessels will require FSB consent, increasing internal security control. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video of a court hearing related to a criminal case with military connections in Ukraine indicates RF monitoring and potential exploitation of Ukrainian internal legal processes. ТАСС reports FSB detained a top manager of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, confirming continued aggressive internal security operations targeting financial institutions. ТАСС reports 437 million rubles will be collected from the former head of Kirovsky and Moskovsky districts of Kazan, Sergei Mironov and his relatives, indicating continued efforts to address corruption. Басурин о главном video and text confirm FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg who was collecting information on RF defense enterprises, reinforcing the MLCOA of aggressive counter-intelligence efforts. Басурин о главном reports FSB detained the head of Snezhinsky Bank, Fedor Bogdanchikov, for embezzlement of over 1 billion rubles, indicating continued internal security operations. ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has liquidated Baburin's party "Russian All-People's Union" via court order, indicating continued internal political consolidation. TASS reports a criminal case against Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait for "fakes" about the RF Armed Forces, reinforcing the MLCOA of aggressive internal security and control of information. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) video of FSB detention of an alleged Ukrainian agent in St. Petersburg confirms the MLCOA of aggressive counter-intelligence. TASS reports the military court will begin hearing the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack case on August 4, indicating a continued focus on addressing perceived internal threats. Alex Parker Returns reports that FSB has started turning away foreigners at the border for subscriptions to pro-Ukrainian and radical channels, as well as criticism of authorities in private correspondence, particularly Tajik and Uzbek citizens, confirming the MLCOA of aggressive internal security measures related to information control. **Север.Реалии reports that the Russian General Prosecutor's Office has declared the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation "