Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
HomeMapNewsMilitary PulseSituation ReportsDaily ReportsList ViewVideosCyber Threats
Sign In
Contact Support
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-21 06:42:17Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-21 06:12:09Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 210641Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Ukraine General: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted. Localized Shahed UAV threats persist for Lviv Oblast and Southern Ukraine. Confirmed civilian casualties in Ivano-Frankivsk (4), Kyiv (6 injured, 1 fatality, now 7 injured, 1 fatality), Chernivtsi (4), Zaporizhzhia (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), and Sloviansk (4). Total confirmed fatalities are 13, with multiple injuries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Northern Ukraine (Kyiv Oblast): Confirmed continued AD engagement against Shahed UAVs over Kyiv. Kinetic impacts on residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district and "Lvivskyi Kvartal" residential complex. Damage includes destroyed windows, structural damage, and ongoing fires. A commercial building (McDonald's/supermarket) and the entrance to Lukyanivska metro station also sustained damage. One confirmed fatality and multiple injuries (now 7) reported in Kyiv. Firefighters and emergency services are actively engaged. Confirmed kindergarten fire. Visuals confirm extensive damage to kiosks and commercial facades on Kyiv streets. Lukyanivska metro station has partially restored operations for exit, with trains stopping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: KMVA confirms 7 injured in Kyiv.)
  • Eastern Ukraine: Initial cruise missile group from Tu-95MS aircraft was detected over Kharkiv Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district hit by 12 UAV strikes overnight, with visual evidence of craters and damaged buildings. RF milblogger "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes by 11th Guards Army VVS and PVO (East Grouping) on UAF forward positions in Yanvarskyi, supporting 36th Army advance, claiming personnel and equipment losses in their area of responsibility. A new group of RF UAVs is reported from Luhansk Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast governor, Oleg Sinegubov, confirms strikes on Kharkiv city and 10 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: UAF AF reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air-to-ground attacks in the East and North-East.)
  • Central Ukraine: Missile group (up to 10) confirmed flying towards Myrhorod district in Poltava Oblast, then passing Poltava towards Kremenсhuk. New missile group from Sumy Oblast also moved towards Poltava Oblast. Another group of missiles from Cherkasy Oblast was confirmed to have diverted from Kropyvnytskyi and headed towards Zvenyhorodka, Kaniv, and Uman districts of Cherkasy Oblast, then further into Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemryriv, Trostyanets), with a general westward course. Kryvyi Rih reports "situation controlled" (Олександр Вілкул). Visuals from "Оперативний ЗСУ" show aftermath of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming damage. TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Western Ukraine: Cruise missiles confirmed from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The main group of missiles was in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, maintaining a western course. Subsequently, these missiles entered Ternopil Oblast, then Chernivtsi Oblast (with AD actively engaging a missile over Chernivtsi, 4 fatalities confirmed), and finally Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with confirmed explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk and reports of damage (blown out windows, light injuries) in one village. A Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched from a MiG-31K was tracked on a vector towards Starokostiantyniv, then further to Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts, with confirmed explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk and reports of casualties. The Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk confirmed infrastructure damage and continued strikes. Three Shahed UAVs approaching Ivano-Frankivsk were reported as intercepted. Visual evidence of damage to civilian buildings in a village near Ivano-Frankivsk, including blown out windows and structural damage, but specifically note no casualties in the Astra report. Damage to a kindergarten and university (Lviv Polytechnic) in Lviv has been confirmed. Damaged residential buildings (20 private houses) confirmed in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Southern Ukraine: New Shahed UAVs detected in the Black Sea, heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo, with 8 inbound approaching Pivdenne/Koblevo. RF strike on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in 3 injuries (now 2 fatalities confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, 1 male wounded in Vasylivskyi district). Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reports 7 UAVs shot down. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared video claiming drone activity and possible explosions in Zaporizhzhia direction. A missile threat is active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russia: Temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been lifted. Restrictions also lifted at Nizhny Novgorod airport. RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber) are gloating about Kyiv impacts, and claiming "precision" of their strikes. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs shot down over Moscow (Два майора); RF MoD now claims 23 UAVs over Moscow, and a total of 74 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z reports; AV БогомаZ reports 10 UAVs in Bryansk Oblast). Falling UAV debris on a railway station in Rostov Oblast has delayed 26 passenger trains and is reported to cause schedule changes for the next two days. Visuals from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirm a fire at Kamianolomni railway station, Rostov Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing damaged building and fire at Kamianolomni, with individuals examining UAV debris. RF Prime Minister Mishustin announced ~180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs. Mishustin also stated Russia is open to investments from "friendly countries" (ТАСС). Flooding reported in Moscow streets (Новости Москвы, TASS video confirmation). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports fires in Rostov and Moscow oblasts after UAV hits, with video of burning trucks and an explosion near a bridge. Belgorod governor reports 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV attack. RF milblogger "Два майора" reports continued "transport collapse" at airports due to UAF drone attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: ASTRA confirms 26 trains delayed in Rostov due to UAV attack. RF milbloggers "Два майора" continue to report on "enemy interceptor drones" without specific details beyond imagery.)
  • Intelligence Gaps: Confirmed detailed BDA on all Kyiv impacts, particularly the full extent of damage to residential areas and the warehouse fire. Confirmation of any kinetic impacts from the missile groups in Poltava, Kremenсhuk, and the diverted groups. Exact number of missiles launched from Tu-95MS aircraft. Confirmation of cluster munition use for X-101 cruise missiles in Chernivtsi. Detailed BDA on western Ukrainian impacts (Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts), specifically from the Kinzhal, and the nature of the "infrastructure damage" (e.g., energy, rail, military). Verification of "minus" for the Kinzhal. Full assessment of damage to railway infrastructure in Rostov Oblast from UAV debris. Confirmation of the status of new Shahed groups in Southern Ukraine. Full BDA on reported ground engagements in Yanvarskyi, Eastern Axis, and Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Verification of RF claims of a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) and details of RF Northern Grouping reserves. Verification of TASS claims regarding 71st Separate Jager Brigade (UAF) losses in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Ukraine General: Night operations continue to provide low visibility, favoring RF UAV and missile saturation tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russia: Heavy rainfall in Moscow Oblast (over 80% of monthly norm in 24 hours) indicates adverse weather conditions within RF territory, potentially impacting logistics or internal movements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: TASS reports bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains, cutting off villages, confirming infrastructure vulnerability to weather.)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • UAF:
    • Air Defense (AD): Fully engaged nationwide against a multi-vector RF aerial assault, including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles (26 confirmed, now 24 confirmed), ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K, and OWA UAVs (Shahed, 597 confirmed, now 426 confirmed). AD actively tracked multiple missile groups across Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. Kyiv AD actively engaged approximately 10 inbound Shaheds and multiple missiles, with "minus" on Shaheds reported by Nikolaevsky Vanyok. AD actively worked on drones over Podil in Kyiv and on a missile over Chernivtsi. Shahed UAVs approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast were tracked. The Kinzhal was tracked from Zhytomyr Oblast to Starokostiantyniv, then Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. UAF AF provided continuous updates on missile and UAV movements. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 7 UAVs. President Zelenskyy reports UAF AD destroyed over 20 missiles and the "overwhelming majority" of drones (344 of 623 total aerial targets). Southern Defense Forces report 18 Shaheds destroyed in their operational zone in the last day. New group of RF UAVs reported from Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv. Missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: UAF AF confirms 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. This indicates high UAF AD activity and success against UAVs, but also the volume of the attack. RBK-Ukraine reports 426 drones and 24 missiles launched by RF).
    • Emergency Services: Medical teams dispatched to multiple districts in Kyiv (Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, Shevchenkivskyi) in response to explosions and falling debris. Rescue efforts underway for confirmed fatalities and casualties (at least one confirmed fatality, 7 injured in Kyiv, 4 injured in Ivano-Frankivsk, 2 fatalities in Zaporizhzhia, 2 fatalities in Dnipropetrovsk, 4 fatalities in Sloviansk, 4 fatalities in Chernivtsi, 1 wounded in Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). Fire reported at residential and warehouse facilities in Solomianskyi district and a kindergarten. Firefighters are actively engaged in Kyiv, with visuals confirming their presence at damaged residential buildings, and Yermak showing fires in Kyiv. Pre-positioned for rapid response in western oblasts following confirmed impacts, including Ivano-Frankivsk and Kamianets-Podilskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Minister of Internal Affairs reports 15 fires due to Russian shelling, 13 liquidated, 2 ongoing, confirming continued emergency response efforts.)
    • Control Measures: Nationwide air raid alerts for missile threats have been lifted, though localized alerts for drones may persist (Lviv Oblast). Public warnings for shelter were ongoing in Kyiv and other threatened regions. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) is providing updates on attack consequences; metro red line partially suspended, Lukyanivska station closed initially, now partially reopened for exit. Temporary changes to Kyiv bus/trolleybus routes due to night attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an urgent warning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Security Services: SBU and OGP are conducting a special operation to "neutralize Russian influence on NABU". NABU has confirmed that SBU and OGP are conducting investigative actions against its employees. This indicates ongoing counter-intelligence operations internally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Foreign Volunteers: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" claims 2,000 Colombians are fighting in its ranks, with more expected. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) (UPDATE: TASS claims UAF deployed a platoon of "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR. This aligns with and attempts to counter the narrative of foreign volunteers supporting UAF.)
    • Resource Requirements: UAF National Guard's "Rubizh" brigade is crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment," indicating localized resource constraints for specific units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • RUF:
    • Deep Operations (UAV/Missile/Aviation Munitions): RF is executing a high-volume, multi-wave, multi-domain deep strike campaign. This included:
      • Tu-95MS strategic bomber launches, with 24 cruise missiles detected across a significantly expanded area, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts.
      • Sustained Shahed UAV attacks targeting Kyiv (~10 initially over Kyiv), with 426 total OWA UAVs launched. Shahed UAVs were reported approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast, with some now targeting areas around Brovary and Slavutych. New Shahed groups are active in the Black Sea towards Southern Ukraine (Pivdenne/Koblevo). A new group of Shahed UAVs from Luhansk Oblast reported towards Kharkiv Oblast.
      • Re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal hypersonic missile launch, targeting Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk).
      • TASS claims RF forces used FABs against UAF reserve positions in Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
      • RF milbloggers (Fighterbomber, Два майора, WarGonzo, Операция Z) are spreading demoralizing propaganda and claiming successful strikes on Kyiv, including a sarcastic claim about "Vasilkov airfield out of chat" and "Kyiv has no AD left." "Dva Mayora" channel is gloating about the "accuracy" of their strikes and predicting increasing strikes on capitals and critical infrastructure. Colonelcassad is disseminating photos of claimed destroyed UAF M2 Bradley BMPs, and video of claimed captured UAF personnel. "Басурин о главном" posting historical photos ("#ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ") indicates standard content unrelated to current ops. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a generic "productive Monday" photo with soldiers, indicating morale messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: RBK-Ukraine confirms 426 drones and 24 missiles launched. "Два майора" is circulating imagery of claimed "enemy interceptor drones," likely a counter-propaganda effort.)
    • Aviation: RF airports (Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Nizhny Novgorod) have lifted temporary restrictions, indicating a return to normal domestic air traffic following previous UAF drone activity. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claims 18 UAVs destroyed over Moscow by midnight (Два майора). RF MoD now claims 23 UAVs over Moscow region and 74 total UAVs destroyed over RF territory (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z). RF Minister of Transport Nikitin addressed concerns about flight delays under "Kover" plan (temporary flight restrictions due to UAVs). "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Sever.Realii reports airports still "overcrowded" due to mass flight cancellations despite lifted restrictions, suggesting continued disruption from UAF drone attacks.)
    • Ground Operations (Popov Yar, Bila Hora claim): RF Ministry of Defense claims ground forces liberated "Popov Yar" through multi-directional assault, providing drone footage of damaged structures and ground movement. Leonid Sharov from the "Zapad" grouping claims destruction of UAF M113 BTR and Akatsiya SPG, inflicting over 240 personnel losses in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. "Dnevnik Desantnika" shared video of soldiers training against aerial targets (possibly drones/balloons) and drone activity on Zaporizhzhia direction, also appealed for donations for drones and Starlink. Rogozin of "Dva Mayora" commented on the Zaporizhzhia front, but no specific operational details were provided. RF sources claim the establishment of a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) to support future operations into Sumy Oblast. This claim requires verification. Рыбарь provides a general summary for the morning of July 21st. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) Note: Location "Popov Yar" is not a widely recognized populated point; this may refer to Popasna or a specific tactical objective. (UPDATE: TASS claims "liberation of Bila Hora" which "allows cutting an important supply route of the UAF in DNR" as stated by Pushilin. This indicates continued RF offensive operations in the Donetsk region aimed at logistical interdiction.)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Strategic Drone/Missile/Aviation Munition Strikes (Sustained, Adaptive, CRITICAL VOLUME & DEPTH, Now Multi-Warhead, WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE, Hypersonic Threat Resurfaced, Enhanced Saturation, FAB Use): RF continues to demonstrate an extremely high capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks. The confirmed use of Tu-95MS strategic bombers for cruise missile launches (24 missiles), alongside continued massed Shahed drone attacks (426 total), and the re-engagement of MiG-31K for Kinzhal ballistic missile use indicates a sustained and robust deep strike capability. Their ability to simultaneously target Northern (Kyiv, Chernihiv), Eastern (Kharkiv), Central (Poltava, Kremenсhuk), and now significantly Western (Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk) Ukraine demonstrates significant coordination and resource availability. The confirmed use of cluster munitions with X-101 in Chernivtsi represents an escalation in lethality. The repeated multi-day nature of these large-scale strikes confirms robust production or stockpiles of munitions. Claimed FAB strikes on UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicate continued air-to-ground precision strike capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: RBK-Ukraine reports 426 drones and 24 missiles launched. UAF AF reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, 203 UAVs did not reach targets due to REB, indicating effectiveness against a large drone volume.)
    • Information Warfare (Aggressive, Psychological, and Exploitative): RF continues to use its military actions to bolster its narrative. Messaging from milbloggers directly aims to terrorize the population and undermine Ukrainian morale, while simultaneously attempting to project overwhelming force and futility of Ukrainian resistance. The sarcastic claim about Vasylkiv airfield and references to "Geraniums flying in dozens," as well as claims of Kyiv being "without AD," are designed to create psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) aims to show tactical success. RF state media (TASS) is also leveraging internal incidents (UAV attacks on Moscow airports, train delays due to debris) to portray Ukraine as causing civilian disruption, justifying RF actions. "Воин DV" suggests Kyiv is creating a "background" for negotiations this week. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: TASS claims UAF moved "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, likely a counter-narrative to UAF foreign legion recruitment. "Два майора" circulating images of "enemy interceptor drones" suggests an effort to counter UAF drone success against RF targets.)
    • Ground Operations (Persistent Attritional Pressure, Shaping Operations): RF continues to conduct attritional ground assaults in Eastern Ukraine, with recent claims of "Popov Yar" liberation (unverified location) and specific claims of UAF equipment destruction and personnel losses, indicating persistent offensive intent and focus on denying UAF equipment. "Воин DV" claims recent bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi (East) supporting 36th Army advance, suggesting continued focus on Eastern front. Claims of a bridgehead in Kursk Oblast for a Sumy offensive indicate active shaping operations on the Northern Axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: TASS reports Pushilin claiming "liberation of Bila Hora" and cutting UAF supply routes in DNR, confirming RF intent to achieve tactical gains and interdict UAF logistics.)
  • Intentions:
    • Systemic Degradation of Ukrainian Infrastructure, Air Defense & Western Aid Logistics (PRIMARY - Deepest & Widest Expansion, Exhaustion, Hypersonic Targeting, Cluster Munition Use, FAB Use): RF's immediate intention is to maximize damage to critical infrastructure, exhaust UAF air defense munitions, and instill widespread fear through sustained, high-intensity, multi-domain aerial campaigns. The targeting of areas like Poltava, Kremenсhuk, and the new western trajectory through Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk, including a Kinzhal strike, suggests specific intent against energy infrastructure, industrial capacity, and key transportation nodes across broader central and now significantly western Ukraine, directly impacting Western aid corridors. The massing of Shaheds and multiple missile types on Kyiv is intended to saturate AD in the capital. The confirmed use of cluster munitions aims to increase the lethality and area effect of strikes. The claimed use of FABs on UAF reserves suggests an intent to degrade UAF ability to maneuver and reinforce. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Psychological Warfare & Demoralization: RF intends to break Ukrainian civilian morale through relentless, widespread attacks causing casualties and damage. Propaganda messaging (e.g., mocking shelter effectiveness, gloating about impacts, claiming AD exhaustion) directly supports this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Territorial Gain (Limited, with Potential for Expansion): RF continues to press for tactical gains in the East, as evidenced by claims of "Popov Yar" and reported UAF losses. Preparations on the Northern Axis suggest a potential for future large-scale offensive operations aimed at fixing UAF forces or seizing territory in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Pushilin's claim about Bila Hora supports this intent in the Donetsk direction.)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

  • Geographic Expansion into Western Ukraine, Multi-Platform Coordination & Diversionary Tactics (CRITICAL - Including Hypersonic Missile & Cluster Munitions, New FAB Use): The expansion of strategic missile strikes deep into Western Ukraine (Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts) from Tu-95MS, concurrently with ongoing Shahed waves, and the re-engagement of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from MiG-31K targeting deep Western Ukraine (Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk), indicates a continued and enhanced adaptation of multi-platform, coordinated deep strikes. This new focus on far-western regions, which are critical logistical and industrial hubs for Western aid, represents a significant escalation in geographic scope and lethality. The confirmed use of X-101 with cluster munition warheads in Chernivtsi is a critical tactical adaptation, increasing indiscriminate lethality. The claimed use of FABs against UAF reserves in Ivanivka suggests an expansion of precision aviation strikes into central Ukraine beyond frontline areas. The sustained multi-vector threats to Kyiv with Shaheds, and new missile threats from Sumy axis, demonstrates an adaptive strategy to probe and exploit AD gaps across Ukrainian territory. Missile trajectory changes (e.g., from Kropyvnytskyi to Cherkasy/Vinnytsia and then further west) indicate a sophisticated attempt to confuse and evade UAF AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Increased Shahed Volume on Kyiv, Southern Ukraine, and now Kharkiv: The increase in the number of Shahed UAVs specifically targeting Kyiv (now ~10), the emergence of new Shahed groups in the Black Sea heading towards Southern Ukraine, and new groups towards Kharkiv indicates an intent to increase saturation and potential kinetic effects on the capital, southern coastal areas, and eastern urban centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Re-engagement on Kyiv and Hypersonic Missile on Western Ukraine: The re-engagement of ballistic missiles on Kyiv and the use of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk indicates an escalation in the type of munitions used against the capital and far-western Ukraine, likely intended for rapid kinetic effect and to bypass layered AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Operations (Exploitative & Adaptive): RF has rapidly adapted its information operations to exploit UAF deep strikes on Moscow, using the lifting of airport restrictions as a propaganda point to demonstrate RF resilience, while simultaneously intensifying demoralizing rhetoric regarding strikes on Ukraine, specifically claiming UAF AD is "gone." RF state media is also disseminating video of claimed ground operations (Popov Yar, UAF equipment losses) to demonstrate tactical successes. They are also actively reporting on the "collateral damage" of UAF drone attacks on Russian territory, such as train delays in Rostov, to shape domestic and international narratives. "Воин DV" suggests these strikes are intended to create a "background" for negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: RF milbloggers continue to push narratives of "enemy interceptor drones" to diminish the impact of UAF drone strikes on RF territory.)
  • Shaping Operations on Northern Axis: RF is observed to be establishing a bridgehead near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) and increasing logistical flow into Belgorod Oblast, indicative of shaping operations for a potential large-scale offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

  • RUF:
    • Very High Munitions Consumption (Sustained): The continued, multi-day, high-volume launches of Shaheds (426 confirmed), newly confirmed cruise missiles from Tu-95MS (24 confirmed), and ballistic and hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal), indicates RF's continued capacity to sustain a very high rate of munition expenditure. This suggests robust production or large stockpiles of strategic munitions. The claimed use of FABs also indicates continued aviation munition availability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Logistics (Minimal Impact, some vulnerabilities, but recovering): The lifting of airport restrictions in Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod indicates normal functioning of domestic air travel infrastructure, with no apparent military logistical impact. Mishustin's visit to Blagoveshchensk and announced airport modernization further suggests normal internal logistics for high-ranking officials and a focus on long-term infrastructure. However, debris from UAF UAVs causing significant train delays in Rostov Oblast, with impacts projected for two days (confirmed fire at Kamianolomni railway station), demonstrates a vulnerability in RF's internal logistical network that can be exploited by UAF deep strikes. Mishustin's statement about 180 billion rubles for border crossing point repairs also indicates a focus on bolstering logistics infrastructure. Mishustin's statement about openness to investments from "friendly countries" (TASS) indicates economic stability messaging. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video of burning trucks and an explosion near a bridge after UAV hits in Rostov Oblast confirms logistical disruption. RF milbloggers note continued "transport collapse" at airports, suggesting persistent disruption despite official statements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: ASTRA confirms 26 trains delayed in Rostov due to UAV attack. Sever.Realii's report of airports still being "overcrowded" contradicts TASS narrative of lifted restrictions, suggesting continued disruption. TASS also reports a bridge collapse in Moscow region due to heavy rains, impacting local travel, highlighting internal infrastructure vulnerabilities.)
    • Internal Incidents: Reports of a fire on a coal conveyor in Sakhalin and 5 fatalities in an Orenburg fire are likely unrelated to the conflict but indicate ongoing internal challenges for RF. Power outages in Irkutsk Oblast impacting 40k residents, and a traffic accident with 13 fatalities in Yakutia (now a criminal case), while non-military, suggest domestic infrastructure and safety challenges for RF. Recent reports of flooding in Moscow (Новости Москвы, TASS video) also suggest internal infrastructure challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF:
    • Air Defense Munitions Strain (CRITICAL - EXTREME & NATIONWIDE, Including Hypersonic Threat): The sustained high-volume, multi-platform attacks (426 UAVs and 24 missiles), particularly the cruise missiles from Tu-95MS (now deep into western Ukraine), ballistic missiles, and massed Shaheds on Kyiv, combined with the re-emergence of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, continue to place unprecedented and critical strain on UAF air defense munitions stockpiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Logistics Corridors (Increased Risk): The deliberate targeting of Western and Central Ukrainian oblasts (Lviv, Lutsk, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi) which contain critical rail and road logistics hubs indicates RF intent to interdict Western military aid supply lines. Confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure in these areas highlights the increased risk to logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Frontline Logistics (Crowdfunding Reliance): Requests for donations for drones and Starlink from RF frontline units (e.g., 7th Airborne Division) indicate that some RF units continue to rely on crowdfunding for critical, technically advanced equipment, which could suggest gaps in formal RF logistical support for specific technologies or units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) (UPDATE: UAF National Guard "Rubizh" brigade crowdfunding for "destroyed property and equipment" also points to localized resource constraints on the UAF side.)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

  • RUF:
    • Centralized Strategic C2 (Highly Effective & Adaptive): The coordinated launches of Tu-95MS missiles and massed Shahed waves across multiple axes, including the significant new extension into Western Ukraine, coupled with adaptive trajectory changes and ballistic/hypersonic missile re-engagement, demonstrate highly effective, centralized strategic C2 for deep operations. Their rapid adaptation of information operations also confirms effective C2 in the information domain. RF Ministry of Defense releasing video of claimed ground operations (Popov Yar, UAF equipment losses) and drone intercept claims (TASS, ASTRA) indicates centralized control over information dissemination. "Воин DV" post suggests centralized command for bomber operations (11th Guards Army). Zvиздец Мангусту's detailed analysis of RF ground operations demonstrates centralized planning for the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal C2: The rapid lifting of flight restrictions in Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod airports and Mishustin's public statements indicate effective internal C2 for civil aviation management and information dissemination. High-level domestic travel by Mishustin further suggests normal internal C2 for government functions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF:
    • Highly Effective Air Defense C2 (Strained but Resilient): UAF AD demonstrates highly effective C2 in rapid detection, tracking, and public warning of complex, multi-speed, multi-vector threats (426 UAVs and 24 missiles) across the entire country, including the Tu-95MS missile launches, numerous inbound UAVs, and ballistic/hypersonic missile threats. Continued real-time reporting from AFU and regional administrations on missile and UAV movements and AD activity confirms robust and resilient UAF C2 for air defense operations despite extreme pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Security C2: The SBU/OGP joint operation against alleged Russian influence on NABU (NABU confirms investigative actions) indicates robust internal security C2 aimed at preventing hybrid warfare infiltration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

  • Posture: UAF is operating at maximum defensive posture across all air defense sectors nationwide. Ground forces maintain established defensive lines in the East and maintain heightened alert on the Northern Axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Readiness:
    • Air Defense: At peak readiness and fully engaged against a complex, high-volume RF aerial assault, including the Kinzhal. The sustained engagement of numerous Shaheds on Kyiv and cruise missiles across various Oblasts, now including far-western regions, demonstrates continuous high readiness. UAF AD successfully engaged and destroyed 344 of 623 total aerial targets. Southern Defense Forces claim 18 Shaheds destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: UAF AF reports 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. RBK-Ukraine reports 426 drones and 24 missiles launched by RF. This confirms continued high readiness and effectiveness against the sheer volume of attacks.)
    • Emergency Services: Emergency services (medical, fire, rescue) are maintaining high readiness in all major urban centers, particularly Kyiv, and now in Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and other western areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Overall: Readiness remains high but is under extreme and potentially unsustainable pressure due to the continuous, nationwide aerial attacks and severe AD munition consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Active Air Defense Engagements & Early Warnings (Nationwide & Adaptive): UAF AD demonstrates continuous success in tracking and warning of incoming missiles and UAVs across almost the entire country. Continued AD operations in Kyiv (Podil) and against cruise missiles across various Oblasts (Chernivtsi, etc.) indicate ongoing success in mitigating RF aerial attacks, despite high volume. The prompt reporting of trajectory changes aids AD effectiveness. Interception of three Shaheds approaching Ivano-Frankivsk and "minus" for Shaheds on Kyiv (Nikolaevsky Vanyok) confirms ongoing AD effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD shot down 7 UAVs. UAF AF reports 344 of 623 aerial targets destroyed, indicating significant interception success against a massive barrage. Southern Defense Forces claim 18 Shaheds destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: UAF AF confirms 224 targets shot down/suppressed, with 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to loss of localization/REB. This indicates significant success in degrading RF drone attacks.)
    • Moscow UAV Interceptions (Escalated Impact): RF reports of 18-23 UAVs destroyed over Moscow (Два майора, TASS, ASTRA), and a total of 74 UAVs destroyed over RF territory (TASS, ASTRA, Операция Z, AV БогомаZ reports 10 in Bryansk), indicate continued UAF capability to project force into RF territory, forcing RF to divert AD resources to homeland defense. The confirmed disruption to railway traffic in Rostov Oblast due to UAV debris (Kamianolomni station fire confirmed by Шеф Hayabusa, Оперативний ЗСУ) demonstrates kinetic effects and logistical disruption within RF territory, with reports of up to two days of schedule changes. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides visual evidence of fires in Rostov and Moscow Oblasts from UAV hits. Bbutusov Plus channel mocks Russian anti-drone protection. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: ASTRA confirms 26 trains delayed due to UAV attack in Rostov, confirming significant disruption. Sever.Realii reports continued airport overcrowding due to flight cancellations, indicating persistent impact.)
    • Internal Counter-Influence Operations: SBU and OGP conducting a special operation to neutralize Russian influence on NABU (NABU confirms investigative actions) indicates proactive measures against hybrid threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Daily RF Personnel Losses: UAF General Staff reports significant RF personnel losses (+1170) and equipment destruction as of 21 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Successful Defense in Lyman: UDF forces successfully repelled a company-sized armored assault in Lyman, inflicting significant losses on RF equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Targeting of North Korean MLRS: The 1st Brigade of the National Guard confirmed the destruction of a rare North Korean 107-mm Type 75 MLRS in the Kupyansk sector, degrading RF fire support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Drone Effectiveness: UDF drone units continue to successfully target and destroy RF armored vehicles, artillery, and personnel along the FLOT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks:
    • CRITICAL Massed Aerial Attack (Sustained & NATIONAL Scope, Multi-Wave, Western Expansion, Hypersonic Threat, Cluster Munition Use): Ukraine is experiencing a continuous, unprecedented multi-vector, high-volume RF aerial assault, now including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles deep into central and significantly western Ukraine, ballistic missiles on Kyiv, and a Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Ivano-Frankivsk. Confirmed explosions and fires in Kyiv's Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts, along with confirmed damage to a metro station entrance (Lukyanivska) and a warehouse fire in Solomianskyi district, represent ongoing significant setbacks for civilian protection and infrastructure. The NEW confirmed fatality in Kyiv and injuries (now 7) are severe setbacks. Confirmed explosions and preliminary reports of damage and injuries (now 4) in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast represent a new significant setback in a previously less targeted region, particularly due to the Kinzhal strike. Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district sustained 12 UAV strikes, with visual evidence of damage. New confirmed fatalities (2) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (2) in Dnipropetrovsk, (4) in Sloviansk, and (4) in Chernivtsi. Confirmed kindergarten fire in Kyiv and Lviv. Damage to Lviv Polytechnic university. Damage to 20 private residential buildings in Kamianets-Podilskyi district, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Psychological Operations Impact: RF's immediate and aggressive information operations, including sarcastic claims about Vasylkiv airfield and mocking UAF AD, and claims of AD exhaustion, are designed to undermine UAF morale and confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Metro Operations Disruption: Temporary closure of sections of Kyiv's red metro line and Lukyanivska station (now partially reopened for exit) is a direct disruption to civilian life and transport. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Moscow metro reports disruption on Kaluzhsko-Rizhskaya line from "Oktyabrskaya" to "Belyaevo" for unclear reasons, demonstrating internal vulnerabilities even as RF attempts to portray UAF as disruptors.)
    • Logistics Hub Damage: Confirmed damage to infrastructure in Lviv, Lutsk, Chernivtsi, and Khmelnytskyi, key Western logistics hubs, indicates successful RF interdiction attempts against Western aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

  • Requirements:
    • Air Defense Munitions (CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE & EXPANDED, SUSTAINED, WESTERN FOCUS, HYPERSONIC CAPABLE): Urgent and critical requirement for interceptor missiles, particularly for countering high-volume, adaptive drone swarms, ballistic missile threats, cruise missile threats across all affected regions, especially now extending into Western Ukraine, and specifically hypersonic missile capable interceptors for Kinzhal threats. The intensity of the current attack necessitates an immediate increase in supply. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • ISR Assets (Enhanced Focus on New Western Strike Vectors & Diversionary Tactics, including Kinzhal Tracking, and Northern Axis RF Reserves): Continued high demand for real-time ISR to track RF strategic aviation, missile trajectories (especially cruise missiles from Tu-95MS and ballistic/hypersonic missiles), and high-volume drone movements across the newly threatened Central, Northern, Eastern, and now Western regions, particularly tracking sudden trajectory changes and diversions. Increased focus on identifying RF bomber deployment locations to Western targets. Critical requirement for ISR to determine the composition, readiness, and exact disposition of RF operational reserves in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts and verify claims of a bridgehead near Guyevo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • BDA Resources: Increased need for rapid BDA teams to assess the widespread damage from the latest attacks, particularly in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and the newly targeted western regions (Lviv, Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi), with specific focus on critical logistics infrastructure (rail hubs, bridges, airfields). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Unit Re-equipment/Support: Crowdfunding by UAF "Rubizh" brigade indicates a need for continued support for unit re-equipment and material replacement. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Constraints:
    • Air Defense Saturation (CRITICAL): The sheer volume (426 UAVs and 24 missiles) and adaptive nature of incoming RF attacks, now including Tu-95MS launched cruise missiles across vast areas of Ukrainian territory (now into Western Ukraine) and ballistic/hypersonic missiles on Kyiv and Western Ukraine, severely risks overwhelming UAF air defenses, leading to breakthroughs and increased damage. The approximately 10 Shaheds inbound to Kyiv, combined with multiple missile groups and a Kinzhal, represent an immediate and severe saturation risk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Geographic Stretch (EXTREME): The nationwide expansion of deep strikes, now encompassing central and significantly western Ukraine with strategic missile and hypersonic threats, forces UAF to further disperse already severely strained AD assets, creating critical vulnerabilities across the entire country. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Internal Resource Constraints: Reliance on crowdfunding for specific unit re-equipment, as seen with the "Rubizh" brigade, suggests that formal supply chains may not be meeting all immediate equipment needs. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

  • RUF:
    • "Overwhelming Force" Narrative (Amplified, Sustained & Aggressive, Emphasizing AD Exhaustion & Hypersonic Advantage): RF continues to use its extensive aerial attacks (426 drones, 24 missiles), particularly the use of strategic bombers for cruise missile launches and ballistic/hypersonic missiles, to project overwhelming military superiority and inevitability of Ukrainian defeat. Milblogger commentary (Fighterbomber, Два майора, WarGonzo, Операция Z) directly aims to terrify the population and demoralize UAF, including sarcastic claims about Vasylkiv airfield and openly mocking Ukrainian AD capabilities by stating Kyiv is "without AD." The use of Kinzhal will be highlighted to demonstrate Russian advanced capabilities and the difficulty of interception. "Dva Mayora" is explicitly stating "accuracy of our strikes" in relation to impacts in Kyiv and predicting increasing strikes on capitals and VPK. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts generic morale messages, contrasting with the aggression of other channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: "Два майора" is circulating imagery of claimed "enemy interceptor drones" likely as a counter-narrative to UAF drone success against RF territory.)
    • "Ukrainian Weakness" Narrative (Exploitative & Manipulative): RF is immediately leveraging successful impacts in Kyiv and other regions, including metro disruptions and civilian casualties, to amplify narratives of Ukrainian AD ineffectiveness, even with sarcastic or exaggerated claims, to further psychological pressure. Dissemination of claimed UAF equipment losses (e.g., Bradley BMP) aims to show tactical superiority. RF channels are also spreading claimed information from UAF POWs (e.g., Andrey Kachur) about "inhumane conditions" to sow discord and demoralize UAF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: TASS claims UAF deployed "Latin American mercenaries" to Aleksandrovgrad, DNR, attempting to discredit UAF foreign volunteers.)
    • "RF Victimhood" Narrative (Counter-UAF Attacks Justification): RF is actively reporting on UAF drone attacks on Moscow (e.g., 23 UAVs destroyed as per Sobyanin/MoD, via Два майора/TASS/ASTRA/Операция Z) and their "collateral damage" (e.g., train delays in Rostov, now confirmed for two days with Kamianolomni station fire) to portray Russia as a victim and justify its ongoing military actions, aiming to garner domestic support and deflect international criticism. RF Transport Minister Nikitin's comments aim to reassure the public about airport safety despite the incidents. Mishustin's announcement of border crossing point repairs also feeds into a narrative of maintaining and improving national infrastructure despite external threats. The Belgorod governor's report of 2 civilian injuries from UAF UAV also supports this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Sever.Realii's report of airport overcrowding despite lifted restrictions indicates UAF success in maintaining psychological pressure on RF. TASS report of Moscow region bridge collapse due to weather also shows internal challenges that can be leveraged by UAF messaging.)
    • "Chinese Support" Narrative (Diplomatic Leveraging): China's statement about "decisive measures" in response to EU sanctions on Russia will be leveraged by RF state media to demonstrate continued international support from a major power, counteracting Western narratives of isolation. The announcement of EU/European Council heads visiting China on 24 JUL will be framed by RF as China maintaining dialogue despite Western pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • "Tactical Success" Narrative (Ground Operations): RF MOD releasing video claiming "Popov Yar" liberation and specific UAF equipment destruction (Bradley, M113, Akatsiya) aims to demonstrate ground force effectiveness and territorial gains, counteracting any perception of RF stagnation. "Воин DV" claims bomber strikes in Yanvarskyi supporting ground advance with claimed UAF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Pushilin's claim about "liberation of Bila Hora" and cutting UAF supply routes in DNR reinforces this narrative of RF tactical success.)
    • "Stability and Development" Narrative (Internal): Mishustin's statements on airport modernization and border crossing point repairs aim to project an image of internal stability and long-term development despite the conflict. State Duma proposal to increase debt threshold for travel ban likely aims to project internal stability and control. Mishustin's statement on openness to investments from "friendly countries" also supports this narrative. News about fining crypto payments in 2026 ("Новости Москвы") attempts to project a long-term economic planning image. TASS reporting on the VK Fest in Moscow aims to project normalcy and large-scale public events. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • "Disunity within Ukraine" Narrative: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is explicitly attempting to project internal disunity within Russian society by stating "Разрозненность общества у нас зашкаливает, многие ведут себя как рагули из соседней б/украины." This attempts to suggest a false equivalence of internal societal issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • UAF:
    • "Resilience and Effectiveness" Narrative (Maintaining Transparency): UAF channels (Air Force, regional administrations, Mayor Klitschko, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ) continue to provide timely and transparent updates on missile and UAV movements and AD engagements, aiming to reassure the public and counter RF narratives of overwhelming force. The continued dispatch of emergency services reinforces a narrative of effective response. Visual evidence of damage in Kharkiv and Kyiv from UAF sources (РБК-Україна, ASTRA) counters RF claims of precision strikes on military targets and highlights the impact on civilians, including a kindergarten and university. President Zelenskyy's statement on AD successes (344 of 623 targets destroyed) aims to maintain confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: UAF AF reporting 224 targets shot down/suppressed and 203 UAVs not reaching targets due to REB reinforces UAF AD effectiveness against high volume attacks. RBK-Ukraine reports on 15 fires and their liquidation by emergency services reinforces resilience. STERNENKO's videos of damage in Kyiv and Rostov railway incidents provide visual counter-narratives to RF claims.)
    • "RF Losses" Narrative: UAF General Staff and Operational ZSU channels continue to publish daily RF combat losses, reinforcing the narrative of successful defense and attrition of RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • "Counter-Hybrid Warfare" Narrative: Reports on SBU/OGP operations against Russian influence within Ukrainian institutions (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO) demonstrate Ukraine's active efforts to counter internal subversion and hybrid threats, reinforcing national resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • "Internal Challenges of RF" Narrative: Butusov Plus video of Russian soldier "catapulting" from vehicle and STERNENKO's video of burning trucks/explosion near bridge in Rostov can be used to highlight RF internal disarray and vulnerabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

  • Ukraine: Public sentiment is under extreme and unprecedented pressure due to the widespread and continuous air raid alerts, strategic missile launches from Tu-95MS, ballistic missile use, the Kinzhal hypersonic threat, and the sheer volume of Shahed UAVs on Kyiv. Confirmed strikes and fires in Kyiv, especially with a confirmed fatality and injuries (now 7), residential building damage, kindergarten fire, and metro station damage, will further increase anxiety and fear, significantly impacting morale in the capital. The missile threat to central Ukrainian industrial and logistical hubs, now extending significantly westward into regions previously considered safer (Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, particularly with the Kinzhal and confirmed cluster munition use), will cause new widespread fear and undermine a sense of security across the entire country. The impact of Kinzhal on Ivano-Frankivsk will be psychologically significant given its speed and previous difficulty of interception. New casualties in Zaporizhzhia (2 fatalities, 1 wounded), Dnipropetrovsk (2 fatalities), Sloviansk (4 fatalities), and Chernivtsi (4 fatalities) will add to the national toll. The video from "Шеф Hayabusa" titled "Morning in Kyiv after the night attack" showing smoke plumes will emphasize the ongoing threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russia: Public sentiment is being managed by narratives of RF military success (e.g., AD intercepts over Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod, sarcastic claims of Kyiv impacts, claims of AD exhaustion, claimed ground victories, successful Kinzhal strike) and portraying Russia as resilient. Milblogger commentary indicates an attempt to foster a sense of superiority and control over the conflict, reinforcing domestic support. Internal incidents (power outages, accidents, and now train delays in Rostov due to UAF UAVs, and Moscow flooding) are unlikely to significantly impact public sentiment related to the conflict but may slightly divert attention and foster a "war at home" sentiment. Reports of two civilians injured in Belgorod from UAF UAVs could reinforce the "victimhood" narrative. "ASTRA" reports on "deported Ukrainians" protesting at a border checkpoint could indicate a minor domestic friction point but likely limited impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Sever.Realii reports airports still "overcrowded" due to mass flight cancellations, indicating a persistent source of public frustration. Moscow metro disruption also impacts civilian life and could contribute to negative sentiment.)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

  • Ukraine: The widespread and intense nature of the current RF aerial attacks, especially the use of Tu-95MS and ballistic/hypersonic missiles, the significant expansion into Western Ukraine, and the confirmed fatalities/injuries, will likely increase international pressure for accelerated military aid, particularly advanced AD systems capable of countering cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and specifically hypersonic missiles, and defending critical infrastructure, especially in the Western regions critical for aid delivery. TASS reports UK planning a 50-day campaign to arm Ukraine, which is a positive development for UAF resource requirements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot is traveling to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support. This visit may be leveraged to further humanitarian and military aid discussions.)
  • Russia: China's announced "decisive measures" in response to EU sanctions on Russia indicate continued diplomatic and economic support for RF from Beijing, potentially undermining Western efforts to isolate Russia. The upcoming EU/European Council visit to China on 24 JUL may be framed by RF as a sign of continued engagement despite Western sanctions. Independent Turkce reporting on potential Istanbul negotiations 23-24 July implies continued diplomatic avenues, potentially favorable to RF by showing willingness to negotiate. Senator Lindsey Graham's comments on Trump's potential tariffs on countries buying Russian oil suggest potential future economic pressure on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: TASS confirms date of Russia-Ukraine talks is still being coordinated and will be announced "in a timely manner," aligning with earlier reports of potential talks 23-24 July in Istanbul. This suggests RF is open to, or at least publicizing openness to, diplomatic solutions, potentially for strategic messaging.)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

  • Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

    • Sustained Massed Aerial Attack with Adaptive Tactics, Focus on Central/Northern/Western Infrastructure (IMMEDIATE - 0-12 hours): RF will continue and likely execute additional waves of its large-scale strategic missile (cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic) and UAV strikes. These attacks will continue to employ adaptive "chaotic movement" tactics and will prioritize deep targeting of central (Poltava, Kremenсhuk, Kropyvnytskyi, Cherkasy, Sumy), northern (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv), eastern (Kharkiv), and now significantly western (Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk) Ukraine. Primary targets will remain critical infrastructure (energy, transport hubs, industrial sites, particularly those supporting Western aid logistics), major population centers (with increased civilian casualties), and military airfields/industrial sites. The immediate objective is to severely disrupt or interdict internal Ukrainian logistics and saturate UAF AD. KAB launches will continue on frontline areas (Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv), as evidenced by claims in Yanvarskyi and Ivanivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Intensified Information Offensive Leveraging "Success" and Demoralization (Concurrent): RF will continue to rapidly disseminate propaganda framing successful strikes, exaggerated UAF losses, and will increasingly seek to leverage selective or decontextualized commentary and fabricating claims to undermine UAF morale and justify their actions. They will particularly mock UAF AD capabilities in response to engagements, amplify UAF attacks on Moscow and their domestic impact (e.g., train delays) to garner domestic support, and likely spread disinformation about Western aid interdiction. They will also highlight claimed ground victories (e.g., "Popov Yar", Bila Hora) and UAF equipment destruction (e.g., Bradley), and use claimed POW statements to demoralize UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Continued Attritional Ground Operations in Eastern Ukraine: RF forces will continue to press attritional assaults, particularly around Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, seeking to gain incremental territorial advantage and inflict maximum UAF losses. "Воин DV" post supports this, indicating ongoing ground and air support for advances in the East. Zvиздец Мангусту's assessment suggests intensified efforts on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) (UPDATE: Pushilin's claim about Bila Hora supports this MLCOA of continued attritional gains in Donetsk direction.)
    • Increased Shaping Operations on Northern Axis: RF will continue and potentially intensify reconnaissance-in-force operations, artillery, and KAB/UAV strikes on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to probe defenses and set conditions for a potential future offensive, including establishing a bridgehead in Kursk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

  • Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

    • Coordinated Hypersonic/Cruise Missile Strike on Critical Energy/Industrial Nodes in Central/Western Ukraine Followed by Massed UAV Wave, Concurrent with Ground Offensive from Northern Axis: RF executes multiple, highly precise Kinzhal hypersonic or other advanced cruise missile strikes from available platforms, specifically targeting critical energy generation/distribution, large industrial complexes, or major military resupply depots in central and now western Ukraine (e.g., Kremenсhuk refinery, major power plants in Poltava/Kirovohrad/Vinnytsia, or key rail/road hubs in Western Ukraine). This would be immediately followed by a new, denser wave of UAVs and conventional cruise missiles to exploit any created gaps in UAF air defense and completely disrupt energy supply or industrial output, severely impacting the war economy and civilian resilience. This deep strike would be synchronized with a commitment of RF unlocated Northern operational reserves (potentially from the Belgorod/Kursk grouping) in a multi-pronged ground offensive into Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts, aiming to achieve a rapid breakthrough while UAF C2 and logistics are disrupted from the nationwide aerial assault. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

  • Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

    • IMMEDIATE (0-3 hours):
      • MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT & ADAPTATION (NATIONWIDE INCLUSION & CENTRAL/NORTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN INFRASTRUCTURE FOCUS, HYPERSONIC THREAT): All UAF air defense assets must be on maximum alert and fully engaged against any residual Shahed threats (e.g., Lviv Oblast, Southern Ukraine, Kharkiv Oblast). Prioritize defense of C2 nodes, critical infrastructure (especially energy and industrial sites in Poltava, Kremenсhuk, Kropyvnytskyi, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Kyiv, including the kindergarten and residential complexes), and major population centers (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kropyvnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia). Dynamic reallocation of assets based on updated threat vectors and the number of inbound Shaheds. Decision point triggered for all available AD assets given the confirmed Tu-95MS launches, ballistic missile, Kinzhal, and numerous inbound threats across the entire country. Immediate re-evaluation of AD asset deployment to prioritize protection of key industrial/energy nodes and C2 in Central, Northern, and now Western Ukraine, as well as critical population centers, accounting for missile diversions and the shift in the main missile axis to the West. Focus on protecting critical targets near Starokostiantyniv airfield. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Public Safety & Operational Security: Issue continuous and urgent public warnings, instructing civilians to seek and remain in shelters, particularly in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kremenсhuk, Kropyvnytskyi, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ensure emergency services are pre-positioned for rapid response and casualty management. Reinforce public messaging against filming and sharing strike-related content. Monitor and respond to Kyiv metro disruptions and public transport changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • SHORT-TERM (3-24 hours):
      • BDA and Post-Strike Response (Expanded & Central/Northern/Eastern/Western Focus): Conduct rapid BDA on all affected areas, including new strike zones in Poltava, Kremenсhuk, Kropyvnytskyi (potential secondary targets), Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk (especially for Kinzhal impact), Lviv, Lutsk, Zaporizhzhia, and all affected districts in Kyiv, especially the warehouse fire in Solomianskyi district, residential complexes, kindergarten, and metro damage. Prioritize search and rescue, medical support, and immediate damage assessment for critical infrastructure, particularly those related to Western aid logistics (rail hubs, bridges, airfields). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Air Defense Munitions Assessment (CRITICAL & GEOGRAPHIC, HYPERSONIC FOCUS): Immediate and granular assessment of air defense munitions expenditure and initiation of urgent resupply requests based on current consumption rates and the effectiveness of RF's adaptive tactics, anticipating sustained high-volume attacks across the entire country, including Kinzhal re-engagement. Prioritize urgent requests for Western AD munitions, specifically addressing critical needs for exposed central, eastern, and now western regions and the protection of industrial/energy assets and key logistical hubs, with particular emphasis on hypersonic interceptors. Leverage UK's announced 50-day campaign for arming Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Counter-Disinformation Response: Formulate and disseminate rapid counter-narratives to RF propaganda, particularly regarding claims of UAF AD ineffectiveness and false reports of military facility destruction. Highlight UAF AD successes where confirmed (344/623 intercepts, 224 targets shot down/suppressed, 203 UAVs lost localization/REB) and immediately counter claims of AD "exhaustion" or "absence." Prepare messaging to counter narratives of "Popov Yar" liberation and claimed UAF equipment destruction if it proves to be a false or misleading claim. Address the Kinzhal strike with clear, factual information to mitigate panic. Publicize the impact of UAF drone strikes on RF territory (e.g., Rostov railway delays, Moscow AD intercepts) to counter RF "victimhood" narratives. Directly counter RF narratives on UAF POW conditions with factual information where possible. Emphasize civilian nature of targets hit (kindergarten, residential, university). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • ISR Refocus Western Avenues, Kinzhal Launchers, and Northern Axis RF Reserves: Re-task ISR assets to monitor potential RF reconnaissance or follow-on strike indicators originating from Belarusian airspace or westward axes, given the new deep western strikes. Prioritize tracking MiG-31K movements and basing to anticipate future Kinzhal launches. Monitor RF bomber deployments from Tu-95MS bases more closely. Immediately task all available ISR to Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts to identify, characterize, and track RF operational reserve forces and verify claims of a bridgehead near Guyevo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Verify "Popov Yar" and "Bila Hora" Claims and UAF Losses: Assign ISR assets or local sources to verify RF claims regarding "Popov Yar" and "Bila Hora" and claimed UAF equipment losses (Bradley, M113, Akatsiya) to understand any actual tactical gains in Eastern Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Reinforce Coastal AD: Given the new Shahed groups in the Black Sea heading towards Pivdenne/Koblevo, reinforce AD coverage for critical port infrastructure and coastal areas in the Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Reinforce Eastern and Northern AD: Given the new Shahed group from Luhansk heading to Kharkiv and sustained KAB/UAV strikes on Kharkiv, reinforce AD coverage for Kharkiv city and Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Maintain Internal Security Vigilance: Continue SBU/OGP operations to counter Russian influence and hybrid threats within Ukrainian institutions (NABU confirmations). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Reinforce Northern Defenses: Place UDF units along the Sumy and Kharkiv axes on maximum alert. Pre-position mobile anti-armor reserves and task artillery to cover likely avenues of approach in anticipation of the MDCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Diplomatic Preparedness: Prepare for potential discussions regarding negotiations, as reported by Independent Turkce for 23-24 July in Istanbul, and confirmed as "coordinated" by TASS. Assess potential RF objectives and red lines for such talks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
      • Leverage Diplomatic Visits: Prepare briefings for the French Foreign Minister's visit to Kyiv to emphasize urgent AD and humanitarian aid needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

END OF REPORT

Previous (2025-07-21 06:12:09Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.