Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 112205Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: RUF strategic aerial attack continues. Confirmed multiple Tu-95MS airborne, with one performing a pre-launch maneuver near Engels, and a MiG-31K (Kinzhal-capable) having launched, indicating a large-scale, multi-vector missile strike is underway. This complements the ongoing mass UAV assault. Air Raid alerts remain active across multiple oblasts, particularly in central Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kyiv Oblast (Kyiv City): Active air raid alerts due to RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Defense engaged. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Vinnytsia Oblast: UAVs are transiting from northern Vinnytsia Oblast towards Zhytomyr Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kirovohrad Oblast (Kropyvnytskyi): Explosions reported, consistent with air defense engagement or UAV/missile impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Cherkasy Oblast (Cherkasy City): Explosions reported in and around Cherkasy, indicating ongoing air defense engagements or UAV/missile impacts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast (Yunakovka): RUF milblogger (Marochko via TASS) claims Yunakovka has entered the "grey zone" and that UAF was forced to abandon some positions. This indicates RUF pressure in the northern border regions. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (for claim, LOW for independent verification).
• Eastern Axis (Kupyansk Sector, Zelena Dolyna): RUF milblogger Colonelcassad continues to circulate footage claiming UAF rotation disruption and "textbook" taking of settlements, suggesting continued RUF pressure and localized tactical gains. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (for claim, LOW for independent verification).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Night operations continue, with low visibility favoring RUF UAV and missile saturation tactics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense: Fully engaged across multiple oblasts (Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr) against incoming RUF UAVs and preparing for strategic missile defense. Providing real-time updates and public warnings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture on the Eastern Axis and actively responding to RUF pressure in northern border regions (e.g., Sumy Oblast). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Intelligence: Actively monitoring RUF strategic aviation movements (Tu-95MS, MiG-31K flights) and UAV trajectories, disseminating updated warnings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (Missile/Aviation):
    • Strategic Bombers: Monitoring sources confirm 5x Tu-95MS in the air, with one performing a pre-launch maneuver from Engels. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • MiG-31K: Confirmed launch of a MiG-31K, a known carrier for Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, significantly increasing the threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • UAV: Large-scale, multi-vector drone attack is underway across numerous oblasts, with RUF sources (НгП раZVедка) claiming "almost 300 reparations in the sky," and now calling for "another wave," indicating an exceptionally high volume of UAVs and intent to sustain the attack. RUF milbloggers (Операция Z) claim "150 strike drones over the country," with photographic evidence of UAV movement on a tactical map overlay. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Missile Status: "Mykolaivskyi Vanok" reports that missiles are not yet fixed in their airspace, suggesting a possible delay in impact or a staggered missile wave. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces (Eastern Axis & Northern Border): Continue probing UAF defenses. RUF milbloggers claim successful disruption of UAF rotations (Kupyansk) and "textbook" taking of settlements (Zelena Dolyna). Claims of forcing UAF to abandon positions in Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, suggest renewed pressure in that northern sector. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Personnel: RUF milbloggers continue to circulate content aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians, such as videos of combat success ("textbook" taking of settlement, disrupting rotation) and direct propaganda ("Nazis!"). Colonelcassad posts imagery of "destroyed and damaged enemy equipment," likely UAF, intended for demoralization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda:
    • RUF sources (ТАСС) continue to disseminate news on domestic events (e.g., death of Vadim Medvedev), likely to project an image of normalcy and deflect from ongoing military actions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • RUF milbloggers (НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad) are actively promoting narratives of overwhelming force with "150-300 strike drones over the country," calling for "another wave," and showcasing claimed UAF losses, reinforcing their own narratives of conflict dominance and attempting to demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Missile and Drone Strikes (ENHANCED): RUF continues to demonstrate an unprecedented capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-domain (UAV, cruise missile, hypersonic missile) attacks. The confirmed airborne Tu-95MS, the reported number of UAVs ("150-300"), and critically, the launch of a MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier) signify a highly coordinated, multi-layered strike package designed to overwhelm. The call for "another wave" of UAVs indicates a deep inventory or rapid launch capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeted Ground Actions: RUF maintains the capability for localized ground assaults and disruption, supported by reconnaissance and fires, as claimed in the Kupyansk and Zelena Dolyna sectors, and now in Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Warfare: RUF continues to demonstrate a robust capability to disseminate propaganda and disinformation, aiming to influence both domestic and international audiences, and to directly demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Intentions:
  • Systemic Degradation of Ukrainian Infrastructure and Air Defense (PRIMARY): The immediate intention is to maximize damage to critical civilian and military infrastructure, exhaust UAF air defense munitions, and instill widespread fear through a sustained, high-intensity, multi-domain aerial campaign. The inclusion of the MiG-31K suggests an intent to target high-value, hardened targets or to apply overwhelming psychological pressure. The call for "another wave" indicates an intent to sustain or increase the pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Maintain Pressure on Eastern Axis and Northern Border: Intent to continue attritional ground assaults and disrupting UAF operations in Donetsk, Kupyansk, and now potentially Sumy Oblast, aiming to fix UAF forces and secure marginal territorial gains, supported by deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Undermine Ukrainian Morale and Resolve: Through persistent aerial attacks, propaganda of RUF successes, and symbolic destruction, RUF intends to erode Ukrainian public and military morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• RUF:
  • Multi-Domain Saturation Strike (Escalated & Sustained): The simultaneous deployment of Tu-95MS, MiG-31K, and an exceptionally high volume of UAVs (150-300 reported) represents an escalation in RUF's multi-domain saturation tactics. The call for "another wave" suggests an intent to sustain this high-intensity pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeting High-Value Assets (Implied): The MiG-31K launch suggests a potential shift towards targeting more hardened or critical UAF military assets, possibly C2 nodes or key air defense systems, rather than solely energy infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Immediate Propaganda Dissemination: RUF milbloggers are very rapidly disseminating information about the scale of the aerial attack, claimed ground successes, and imagery of claimed UAF losses, aiming for immediate psychological impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Renewed Pressure in Sumy Oblast: The claim of UAF abandoning positions in Yunakovka suggests RUF is reactivating or increasing pressure in this border region, potentially to fix UAF resources or create a new "grey zone." CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• UAF:
  • Enhanced Air Defense Responsiveness (Sustained): Real-time public alerts and active engagements against UAVs and missiles across multiple oblasts indicate highly adaptive and responsive air defense C2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Public Information Updates: UAF Air Force is providing continuous, granular updates on UAV movements, allowing for more precise public warnings and potential resource allocation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• RUF:
  • VERY High Munitions Consumption (Sustained): The sustained large-scale drone attacks, confirmed strategic missile launches, and MiG-31K deployment indicate an extremely high rate of munitions consumption for long-range precision weapons. The call for "another wave" confirms RUF's capacity to continue this rate, which may not be indefinitely sustainable without significant domestic production or external resupply. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Renewed US Support (CRITICAL): Confirmation of renewed US weapons supply remains a critical positive development for UAF's long-term sustainment, especially for air defense munitions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Air Defense Munitions Strain (SEVERE): The current massed drone and impending missile strikes will place unprecedented strain on UAF air defense munitions stockpiles. Replenishment remains an immediate and overwhelming critical requirement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• RUF:
  • Centralized Strategic C2 (Highly Effective): The coordinated launch of multiple Tu-95MS, a Tu-160 (previously reported), MiG-31K, and multi-vector drone attacks, alongside the call for "another wave," demonstrates highly effective, centralized strategic C2 for deep operations and their sustained nature. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information C2: RUF maintains effective control of its information narrative, rapidly disseminating coordinated messages across milblogger channels and state media. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Highly Effective Air Defense C2: Rapid detection, tracking, and public warning of incoming threats across multiple oblasts, including specific drone movement updates, demonstrate highly effective C2 for air defense operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Effective Public Communication: The rapid and precise updates from UAF Air Force channels illustrate robust C2 in information dissemination to the public. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Posture: UAF is currently operating at maximum defensive alert against a complex, multi-domain RUF aerial attack. Ground forces maintain defensive lines, particularly on the Eastern Axis, and are responding to new pressure in Sumy Oblast. Diplomatic efforts are actively securing essential international support.
• Readiness:
  • Air Defense: At peak readiness and fully engaged. Systems are being severely tested by the volume and complexity of the current RUF attacks (UAVs + cruise missiles + Kinzhal-capable missile launch), and the intent for sustained waves. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces: High readiness to defend against ground assaults, particularly on the Eastern Axis. Tactical adaptations (e.g., drone counter-armor) continue to be demonstrated. Readiness in northern border regions (e.g., Sumy) is being tested. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Logistics/Sustainment: Readiness is boosted by confirmed resumption of US aid, but the immediate expenditure rate of air defense munitions is a critical concern. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information/Public Engagement: Proactive in informing the public of threats and showcasing UAF successes, maintaining morale and demonstrating RUF's impact on civilians. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Successes:
  • Active Air Defense Engagements & Early Warnings: Ongoing successful interceptions of RUF UAVs and timely public warnings across critical areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Resumption of US Weapons Supply: A major strategic success, ensuring critical military aid flow. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Setbacks:
  • IMMEDIATE Massed Aerial Attack (Sustained): Ukraine is currently under an unprecedented multi-vector, high-volume RUF aerial assault (UAVs, cruise missiles, hypersonic missile threat), now explicitly called to be sustained with "another wave," posing extreme risk to infrastructure and population centers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Persistent Pressure on Eastern Front & New Pressure in Sumy: RUF continues to exert constant pressure on the Donetsk and Kupyansk axes, consuming UAF resources and personnel. The claimed UAF withdrawal in Yunakovka (Sumy Oblast) indicates new or increased pressure in a northern border region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Civilian Casualties/Damage: Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi and Cherkasy highlight the ongoing human cost and damage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Requirements:
  • Air Defense Munitions (CRITICAL): Immediate and ongoing critical requirement for interceptor missiles, particularly for countering high-speed ballistic/hypersonic threats and for C-UAS systems to counter the current and anticipated massed aerial attacks, especially given the RUF intent for sustained waves. This is the top priority.
  • ISR Assets: Continued high demand for real-time ISR to track RUF strategic aviation, missile trajectories (especially for MiG-31K and Kinzhal), and high-volume drone movements, particularly to identify potential follow-on waves.
  • Medical/Emergency Response: Increased requirement for emergency services, search and rescue, and medical personnel due to anticipated civilian casualties from aerial strikes.
  • Counter-Infiltration/Border Defense Assets: Increased requirement for forces and ISR along northern border areas, particularly in Sumy Oblast, to counter RUF probing actions and prevent further "grey zone" expansion.
• Constraints:
  • Air Defense Saturation (SEVERE): The sheer volume and multi-domain nature (UAV, cruise, hypersonic) of incoming RUF attacks, compounded by the intent for "another wave," risks overwhelming UAF air defenses, leading to breakthroughs and increased damage.
  • Personnel Fatigue: Continuous high-intensity air defense operations across multiple oblasts place immense strain on UAF personnel.
  • Infrastructure Resilience: Repeated strikes on energy and transportation infrastructure could degrade UAF logistical capabilities and civilian life support.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• RUF:
  • "Overwhelming Force" Narrative (Amplified & Sustained): The ongoing, visibly large-scale drone and missile attacks (amplified by exaggerated claims of 150-300 drones and calls for "another wave") are a direct psychological operation designed to induce panic, overwhelm perception of UAF defenses, and portray RUF as unstoppable. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Victory/Dominance Narratives (Expanded): RUF claims of tactical successes (Zelena Dolyna, Kupyansk rotation disruption) and imagery of claimed UAF losses are used to project an image of military effectiveness. The claim of UAF withdrawal in Yunakovka serves to highlight perceived RUF territorial gains even in secondary axes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Deflection/Normalization: Dissemination of news on domestic Russian events by state media aims to normalize the situation within Russia and deflect international attention from the ongoing aggression. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Transparency and Resilience: Immediate public warnings of aerial threats and continuous updates on air defense operations aim to maintain public trust and foster resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine: Public sentiment is under extreme pressure due to the widespread air raid alerts and the exceptional volume and variety of incoming aerial threats. The RUF intent to sustain these waves will further test resilience. However, UAF's transparency and active air defense engagements, combined with the morale boost from confirmed US aid (from previous report), will help sustain resolve. The images of civilian suffering and the intensity of the attacks will reinforce determination but also highlight the severe emotional toll. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russia: Public sentiment is being shaped by narratives of RUF military success and the "necessity" of the conflict, with the current large-scale aerial attacks used to project strength and efficiency. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Ukraine: The confirmation from President Zelenskyy about the resumption of US weapons supply (from previous report) remains the most significant diplomatic development, indicating continued material support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russia: The international community will closely observe RUF's ongoing mass aerial attacks, particularly the use of hypersonic missiles, with anticipated strong condemnation of civilian infrastructure targeting. RUF's attempts to portray diplomatic successes or internal normalcy will not overshadow the impact of the ongoing aggression. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Sustained Massed Aerial Attack (IMMEDIATE - 0-12 hours): RUF will continue and likely attempt to execute additional waves of its large-scale strategic missile strike from the airborne Tu-95MS and the launched MiG-31K, concurrently with or following the ongoing massed UAV attack. Primary targets will be critical infrastructure (energy, transport hubs), major population centers, and potentially high-value military targets (C2 nodes, major AD assets). The scale and intent for "another wave" of UAVs suggests a continued, concentrated effort to exhaust AD munitions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Continued Attritional Ground Assaults (Eastern Axis & Northern Border - 6-24 hours): RUF forces will sustain high-intensity, localized ground assaults on the Donetsk and Kupyansk axes, leveraging drone support for targeted strikes and reconnaissance. They will also likely exploit or expand gains in northern border regions such as Sumy Oblast. This will be aimed at fixing UAF forces and exploiting any disruption caused by the aerial attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Intensified Information Offensive (Concurrent): RUF will continue to rapidly disseminate propaganda framing successful strikes, exaggerated UAF losses, and perceived international legitimacy, attempting to amplify the psychological impact of the aerial attacks and their claimed ground successes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Decoy/Saturation Leading to Breakthrough Missile Strike on High-Value AD Assets: RUF's initial high-volume UAV attack and conventional missile strike are primary decoys for subsequent, highly precise Kinzhal missile strikes from the MiG-31K, specifically targeting key UAF C2 nodes or major air defense asset locations (e.g., PATRIOT/NASAMS batteries). This aims to create critical gaps in UAF air defense, allowing for subsequent, less contested strike waves or ground operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Combined Arms Breakthrough (Eastern Axis / Northern Border): Immediately following the peak of the aerial bombardment, RUF launches a coordinated, multi-battalion ground assault on a key sector of the Eastern Front (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, or a new thrust on Kupyansk) or significantly expands its ground activity in Sumy Oblast, leveraging reduced UAF air defense capabilities due to saturation, and attempting a rapid breakthrough before UAF can fully redeploy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Multi-Front Air/Ground Coordination with New Front: RUF coordinates the current mass aerial attack with a previously uncommitted reserve force in the Northern Axis (Kharkiv), launching a significant ground offensive while UAF air defenses and strategic reserves are fixed by the nationwide strikes. This would align with previous daily report's MDCOA. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • IMMEDIATE (0-3 hours):
    • MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT: All UAF air defense assets must be on maximum alert and fully engaged against the incoming strategic missile wave, including the hypersonic threat. Prioritize defense of C2 nodes, critical infrastructure, and major population centers, dynamically reallocating assets based on updated threat vectors and the anticipated "second wave" of drones/missiles. DECISION POINT: Dynamic allocation of high-value AD systems, particularly for Kinzhal threat; assessment of sustained AD operations.
    • Public Safety: Issue continuous and urgent public warnings, instructing civilians to seek and remain in shelters. Ensure emergency services are pre-positioned for rapid response. DECISION POINT: Activation of comprehensive public alert and response protocols, pre-staging of emergency teams.
    • ISR on Strategic Bomber Return/Reload: Prioritize SIGINT/IMINT on RUF strategic airfields (Engels, Olenya, Dyagilevo) to confirm post-strike activity, refueling, and potential re-arming for follow-on waves, particularly for MiG-31K and Tu-95MS. DECISION POINT: Reallocation of ISR assets to track bomber movements and readiness for additional waves.
  • SHORT-TERM (3-24 hours):
    • BDA and Post-Strike Response: Conduct rapid BDA on all affected areas, prioritizing search and rescue, medical support, and immediate damage assessment for critical infrastructure and military assets. DECISION POINT: Allocation of emergency and reconstruction resources.
    • Air Defense Munitions Assessment (URGENT): Immediate and granular assessment of air defense munitions expenditure and initiation of urgent resupply requests based on current consumption rates, anticipating sustained high-volume attacks. Prioritize requests for Western AD munitions. DECISION POINT: Urgent logistical requests, particularly for Western AD munitions, and advocacy for accelerated deliveries.
    • Ground Force Readiness Review (Eastern & Northern): Evaluate RUF ground assault patterns and UAF defensive successes/challenges in Donetsk, Kupyansk, and Sumy Oblasts; adjust force posture and reserve allocation as needed, anticipating potential follow-on ground offensives, especially if AD is significantly degraded. DECISION POINT: Operational adjustments for ground forces, including reinforcement of critical sectors and border regions.
  • MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
    • Logistical Security for US Aid: Implement enhanced security measures for anticipated incoming US weapons shipments and related logistical routes to mitigate MDCOA of targeting supply lines. This includes enhanced air defense coverage for rail/road hubs. DECISION POINT: Enhanced convoy protection, anti-strike measures, and logistical redundancy planning for incoming aid.
    • Strategic ISR Adaptation: Refine ISR collection plans to anticipate and track future large-scale RUF aerial attacks, assess the effectiveness of their multi-domain saturation tactics, and identify new high-value RUF targets. DECISION POINT: Adjust long-term ISR plan to focus on RUF deep strike capabilities, logistics, and emerging ground pressure points.
    • Information Warfare Counter-Narrative: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RUF propaganda regarding overwhelming force and territorial gains, leveraging UAF successes (e.g., BDA on RUF vehicles, US aid confirmation) and highlighting civilian suffering. DECISION POINT: Develop and implement proactive public information campaigns to maintain morale and counter RUF psychological operations.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. Full RUF Strategic Missile Loadout and Target Intent (IMMEDIATE):
   • GAP: Precise types and quantities of missiles launched from Tu-95MS aircraft. Confirmation of Kinzhal missile launch from MiG-31K and its flight path/target. Detailed analysis of RUF's primary and secondary targeting for the current and anticipated strategic missile wave, particularly concerning high-value targets (UAF C2, AD nodes, critical infrastructure). Confirmation of "second wave" capabilities for drones/missiles.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT on RUF strategic aviation communications and missile guidance systems (especially for Kinzhal). HIGH PRIORITY IMINT (satellite and aerial reconnaissance) of missile launch areas and impact sites for BDA. HIGH PRIORITY OSINT from monitoring public airspace data and RUF channels for inadvertent disclosures.
2. Verification of RUF Ground Gains and Damage Assessment (Eastern Axis & Northern Border - IMMEDIATE):
   • GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding "taking a settlement" (Zelena Dolyna), disruption of UAF rotations (Kupyansk), and UAF withdrawal from Yunakovka (Sumy Oblast). Precise RUF and UAF lines of contact in the Donetsk, Kupyansk, and Sumy Oblasts following recent engagements.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY IMINT (drone and satellite imagery) of the claimed areas and recent impact sites. HIGH PRIORITY HUMINT from local sources or UAF units in contact. HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT on RUF ground unit communications for confirmation of territorial control and BDA.
3. RUF Drone Inventory, Production/Acquisition Rate, and Launch Sites (URGENT):
   • GAP: Detailed assessment of RUF's current inventory of Shahed-type and other strike UAVs. Confirmation of their daily/weekly production or acquisition rate, especially in light of claims of "150-300" UAVs and the call for "another wave." Identification of all active RUF UAV launch sites and their operational patterns.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY HUMINT from captured RUF drone operators or intelligence on RUF supply chains. MEDIUM PRIORITY OSINT on Russian industrial reports and Iranian/Chinese supply chain indicators. HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT to identify drone control frequencies and persistent monitoring of suspected launch sites.
4. Impact of Renewed US Weapons Supply on RUF Planning and Cyber Response (ONGOING):
   • GAP: Assessment of RUF's immediate and long-term adaptation to the confirmed resumption of US weapons supply to Ukraine. Will this trigger a change in RUF operational tempo, targeting priorities (especially logistical routes), or lead to increased cyber activity targeting supply chains or critical infrastructure?
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT on RUF high-level command discussions and military planning communications. MEDIUM PRIORITY OSINT on Russian state media and expert commentary reacting to the announcement. HIGH PRIORITY CYBINT to monitor for preparatory cyber activity targeting Ukrainian infrastructure or supply chain logistics.
5. RUF Tactical Aviation Sortie Rates and Munitions (KABs/Other PGMs) & Potential New Front Activity:
   • GAP: Accurate assessment of RUF tactical aviation sortie rates, particularly those employing KABs and other precision-guided munitions, across all axes. Detailed BDA on the effects of these strikes on UAF fortifications and personnel. Additionally, monitoring for any increase in RUF tactical aviation activity in the Northern Axis (Kharkiv) that might indicate a coordinated ground offensive.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY IMINT (drone and satellite imagery) of targeted areas. HIGH PRIORITY HUMINT from UAF units operating in affected sectors. MEDIUM PRIORITY SIGINT to track RUF aviation communications and munitions expenditure. HIGH PRIORITY IMINT/SIGINT to monitor RUF airfields and forward air deployments near Kharkiv.