Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 112100Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: RUF strategic aerial attack ongoing with UAVs. Confirmed multiple Tu-95MS airborne, with one performing a pre-launch maneuver near Engels, indicating an imminent large-scale missile strike. Air Raid alerts remain active across multiple oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kyiv Oblast (Kyiv City, Brovary): Active air raid alerts due to RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Defense engaged. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Continued RUF UAV activity reported. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Cherkasy Oblast: RUF UAV identified, and an explosion reported by Suspilne. Air Force of Ukraine confirms UAV threat for Sumy, Poltava, and Cherkasy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine confirms UAV threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava Oblast: Air Force of Ukraine confirms UAV threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • UAF (79th Tavrian Air Assault Brigade, 3rd Air Assault Battalion) reports successful engagement and destruction of an RUF armored vehicle (likely with anti-drone cage) via drone footage, demonstrating effective counter-armor tactics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reports from a UAF-affiliated source (Шеф Hayabusa) indicate a block-post near the Donetsk stele was destroyed by RUF drones. This aligns with previous RUF claims of striking the stele near Pokrovsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (for damage, MEDIUM for precise location).
  • Video from Alex Parker Returns (RUF milblogger) shows a damaged road and struck civilian vehicle, with armed personnel, implying combat aftermath in an unspecified area. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (for general combat zone, LOW for specific location/event).
  • Video from Colonelcassad (RUF milblogger) shows civilians sheltering in a subway, likely related to ongoing bombardments. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (for content, LOW for specific location).
• Odesa Oblast: Video from Шеф Hayabusa confirms civilian casualties, including an animal fatality (horse), following a recent RUF strike, showing the impact on civilian life. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine General: Ongoing night operations for RUF aerial attacks. Low visibility continues to favor RUF UAV saturation tactics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense: Fully engaged across multiple oblasts (Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy) against incoming RUF UAVs. Providing real-time updates and public warnings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces: Demonstrating effective counter-armor and defensive capabilities in Donetsk, as evidenced by the destruction of an RUF armored vehicle. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Intelligence: Actively monitoring RUF strategic aviation movements (Tu-95MS, Tu-160 flights) and UAV trajectories. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Procurement/Support (International): President Zelenskyy confirms resumption of US weapons supply. Politico reports that Donald Trump is considering a new aid package for Ukraine worth hundreds of millions, reinforcing the potential for continued US support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations (Missile/Aviation):
    • Tu-95MS: Monitoring sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Николаевский Ванёк) confirm 5x Tu-95MS in the air, with one performing a pre-launch maneuver from Engels. This indicates an imminent wave of strategic missile launches. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Tu-160: Monitors also report the take-off of one Tu-160 bomber. If confirmed, this adds another layer of strategic missile capability. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
    • UAV: Large-scale, multi-vector drone attack is underway, targeting multiple oblasts (Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces (Eastern Axis): Continue probing UAF defenses, suffering losses but maintaining pressure. Evidence of drone-enabled destruction of a block-post near the Donetsk stele, suggesting targeted strikes in support of ground efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Personnel: RUF milbloggers continue to circulate content aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians, such as videos of civilians sheltering in subways and promoting narratives of UAF weakness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda:
    • RUF sources (Операция Z) are spreading narratives about potential US policy shifts (Trump abandoning tariffs on Russian oil) to sow doubt about international support for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • RUF state media (TASS) continues to push narratives of internal Ukrainian instability (Hungarian protest in Budapest regarding Transcarpathia incident), attempting to exploit ethnic tensions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • RUF channels (Рыбарь, Два майора) promote their analyses, reinforcing their own narratives of the conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • RUF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns) use graphic combat footage (damaged civilian vehicle with armed personnel) to portray the ongoing conflict and its impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Strategic Missile and Drone Strikes: RUF possesses and is actively employing the capability for widespread, high-volume, multi-vector missile and drone attacks. The confirmed airborne Tu-95MS and potential Tu-160, coupled with ongoing UAV attacks, demonstrate a significant capacity to saturate UAF air defenses and inflict extensive damage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeted Ground Actions: RUF maintains the capability for localized ground assaults supported by drone reconnaissance and precision strikes, as seen with the reported drone strike on the Donetsk stele block-post. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Warfare: RUF continues to demonstrate a robust capability to disseminate propaganda and disinformation, aiming to influence both domestic and international audiences and undermine Ukrainian morale and support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Infrastructure and Overwhelm Air Defense: Primary intention remains to maximize damage to critical civilian and military infrastructure and exhaust UAF air defense munitions through a sustained, high-intensity aerial campaign. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Achieve Localized Gains in Donetsk Oblast: Intent to continue attritional ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast to fix UAF forces and secure marginal territorial gains, supported by deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Undermine Ukrainian Morale and Resolve: Through persistent aerial attacks, propaganda of UAF losses/weakness, and symbolic destruction, RUF intends to erode Ukrainian public and military morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Influence International Opinion: RUF attempts to influence international discourse by highlighting potential shifts in foreign policy (US oil tariffs) and leveraging internal tensions (Hungarian protest). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• RUF:
  • Simultaneous Strategic Bomber Deployment: The confirmed airborne Tu-95MS and reported Tu-160 signify a coordinated strategic missile launch plan, potentially aimed at a larger, more impactful strike wave. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Wave" UAV Tactics: Continued large-scale, multi-vector drone attacks, leveraging saturation to probe and overwhelm UAF air defenses ahead of or concurrently with missile strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeted Strike/Ground Coordination: Apparent use of drones for precision strikes against UAF defensive positions (Donetsk stele block-post) to support or soften targets for future ground actions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Refined Information Operations: Immediate dissemination of content leveraging internal Russian economic news and perceived US political shifts to influence narratives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Enhanced Air Defense Responsiveness: Real-time public alerts and active engagements against UAVs across multiple oblasts indicate highly adaptive and responsive air defense C2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Effective Drone Counter-Armor: Demonstrated capability to use drones for precision strikes against RUF armored vehicles (79th AAB footage), highlighting tactical offensive success in the ground domain. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Diplomatic Success: Confirmed resumption of US weapons supply is a critical strategic adaptation to secure ongoing material support, directly impacting UAF's ability to sustain operations. The Politico report on Trump's consideration of further aid is a positive signal for sustained support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Counter-Offensive: Continued use of OSINT/combat footage to showcase RUF losses and combat failures (79th AAB BDA) as a direct counter-narrative, while highlighting civilian suffering (Odesa horse) to maintain international pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• RUF:
  • High Munitions Consumption: The sustained large-scale drone attacks and impending strategic missile launches indicate a very high rate of munitions consumption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Domestic Resource Control: Russian court actions (confiscation of 'Glavprodukt' assets) indicate ongoing state efforts to centralize and control domestic economic resources, which supports long-term military sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Renewed US Support: Confirmation of renewed US weapons supply and the possibility of further aid from the US (Trump's consideration) are significant positive developments for UAF's long-term sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Air Defense Munitions: The ongoing massed drone attacks and impending missile strikes will continue to place immense strain on UAF air defense munitions stockpiles. Replenishment remains a critical requirement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• RUF:
  • Centralized Strategic C2: The coordinated launch of multiple Tu-95MS and a Tu-160 aircraft, alongside multi-vector drone attacks, demonstrates effective, centralized strategic C2 for deep operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground/Air Coordination: Apparent coordination between drone ISR/strike and ground elements (Donetsk stele) indicates improving tactical-level integration. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Information C2 (Controlled with Minor Leaks): RUF maintains overall control of its information narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Highly Effective Air Defense C2: Rapid detection, tracking, and public warning of incoming threats across multiple oblasts demonstrate highly effective C2 for air defense operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Effective Tactical C2: The successful engagements against RUF armored vehicles (79th AAB) indicate effective tactical C2 and execution by UAF ground units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Strategic C2 (Diplomatic): President Zelenskyy's confirmation of resumed US aid signifies effective strategic C2 in maintaining and leveraging international partnerships. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

• Posture: UAF is in a high state of defensive alert against a multi-domain RUF aerial attack. Ground forces are maintaining robust defensive lines, successfully engaging RUF assets. Diplomatic efforts are actively securing essential international support.
• Readiness:
  • Air Defense: High readiness, actively engaged, and providing real-time public threat updates. Systems are being tested by high-volume RUF attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces: High readiness to defend against ground assaults and conduct precision strikes, demonstrating effectiveness in counter-armor operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Logistics/Sustainment: Readiness is boosted by confirmed resumption of US aid and potential for further assistance, alleviating critical supply concerns. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information/Public Engagement: Proactive in informing the public of threats and showcasing UAF successes, maintaining morale and demonstrating RUF's impact on civilians. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

• Successes:
  • Effective Counter-Armor Operations: Successful destruction of an RUF armored vehicle by the 79th AAB's 3rd Air Assault Battalion, indicating proficient drone-enabled precision strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Active Air Defense Engagements: Ongoing successful interceptions of RUF UAVs in critical areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Resumption of US Weapons Supply & Future Aid Prospects: A major strategic success, ensuring critical military aid flow and potentially increased future support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Effective Public Threat Warning: Timely alerts from UAF Air Force and local administrations enable civilian preparedness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Setbacks:
  • Imminent Massed Aerial Attack: Ukraine is currently under a multi-vector, high-volume RUF aerial assault (UAVs, impending missiles), posing significant risk to infrastructure and population centers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Persistent Pressure on Eastern Front: RUF continues to exert constant pressure on the Donetsk axis, consuming UAF resources and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Civilian Casualties/Damage: Recent strike on Odesa, confirmed civilian and animal casualties, highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict. The strike on the Donetsk stele block-post also indicates direct hits on UAF defensive positions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

• Requirements:
  • Air Defense Munitions: Immediate and ongoing critical requirement for interceptor missiles and C-UAS systems to counter the current and anticipated massed aerial attacks.
  • ISR Assets: Continued high demand for real-time ISR to track RUF strategic aviation, missile trajectories, and high-volume drone movements.
  • Logistical Support: Rapid resupply and distribution of all classes of supply, particularly munitions, to frontline units and air defense batteries.
  • Medical/Emergency Response: Increased requirement for emergency services, search and rescue, and medical personnel due to anticipated civilian casualties from aerial strikes.
• Constraints:
  • Air Defense Saturation: The sheer volume of incoming RUF UAVs and strategic missiles risks overwhelming UAF air defenses, leading to breakthroughs and increased damage.
  • Personnel Fatigue: Continuous high-intensity operations across multiple fronts place immense strain on UAF personnel, particularly air defense crews.
  • Infrastructure Resilience: Repeated strikes on energy and transportation infrastructure could degrade UAF logistical capabilities and civilian life support.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• RUF:
  • "Overwhelming Force" Narrative: The ongoing large-scale drone and missile attacks are a psychological operation designed to induce panic and overwhelm perception of UAF defenses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Victory/Dominance Narratives: RUF claims of striking UAF symbols (Donetsk stele) and showcasing combat aftermath are used to project an image of military effectiveness and demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Sowing Division/Undermining Support: RUF attempts to exploit internal ethnic tensions (Hungarian protest in Budapest) and cast doubt on international support (Trump tariff narrative). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Transparency and Resilience: Immediate public warnings of aerial threats and continuous updates on air defense operations aim to maintain public trust and foster resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Showcasing RUF Failures/Ukrainian Successes: Dissemination of combat footage showing destroyed RUF equipment (79th AAB BDA) directly counters RUF victory narratives and boosts UAF morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Highlighting International Support: Confirmation of renewed US weapons supply is a powerful message of continued international solidarity against RUF narratives of Ukrainian isolation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Exposing RUF Atrocities: Reporting on civilian casualties (Odesa horse) aims to maintain international condemnation of RUF actions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukraine: Public sentiment is under extreme pressure due to the widespread air raid alerts and the high volume of incoming aerial threats. However, UAF's transparency and active air defense engagements, combined with the morale boost from confirmed US aid, will help sustain resolve. The images of civilian suffering (Odesa horse, civilians in subway) will reinforce determination but also the emotional toll. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russia: Public sentiment is being shaped by narratives of RUF military success and the "necessity" of the conflict. Domestic economic measures (Glavprodukt asset seizure) and the narrative of external threats (Hungarian protest) aim to unify public opinion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Ukraine: The confirmation from President Zelenskyy about the resumption of US weapons supply is the most significant diplomatic development, indicating continued and possibly increased material support. Politico's report on Trump considering further aid underscores potential for sustained bipartisan support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russia: The international community will closely observe RUF's ongoing mass aerial attacks and ground assaults, with anticipated strong condemnation of civilian infrastructure targeting. RUF's attempts to portray international policy shifts or internal Ukrainian instability will be observed but unlikely to shift broad international condemnation of its aggression. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Sustained Massed Aerial Attack (IMMEDIATE - 0-12 hours): RUF will proceed with a large-scale strategic missile strike from the airborne Tu-95MS and potential Tu-160 aircraft, concurrently with or following the ongoing massed UAV attack. Primary targets will be critical infrastructure (energy, transport hubs) and major population centers across Ukraine, aiming for systemic disruption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Continued Attritional Ground Assaults (Eastern Axis - 12-48 hours): RUF forces will sustain high-intensity, localized ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Pokrovsk sectors) to fix UAF forces and exploit any gains made during or after the aerial attacks, leveraging drone support for targeted strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Offensive (Concurrent): RUF will intensify its information warfare efforts, rapidly disseminating propaganda framing successful strikes, UAF losses, and perceived international disunity, attempting to amplify the psychological impact of the aerial attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Decoy/Saturation Leading to Breakthrough Missile Strike on High-Value Targets: RUF's initial high-volume UAV attack and conventional missile strike are primary decoys for subsequent, highly precise missile strikes (e.g., Kinzhal, Iskander, or novel platforms) aimed at critical UAF C2 nodes, key air defense asset locations (especially PATRIOT/NASAMS batteries), or deep strategic targets, designed to degrade UAF's ability to respond to follow-on ground operations. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Diversionary Ground Offensive in Northern Axis: Concurrent with the strategic aerial attacks, RUF launches a more significant ground offensive along the Northern (Kharkiv) Axis (e.g., Lyptsi or Vovchansk), aiming to draw UAF reserves away from the Eastern Front while air defenses are saturated. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Cyberattack on Critical Infrastructure: RUF conducts a coordinated, large-scale cyberattack on Ukraine's energy grid or telecommunications network to compound the effects of kinetic strikes, aiming for widespread blackouts and communications disruption, further hampering UAF C2 and public morale. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
    • MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT: All UAF air defense assets must be on maximum alert and fully engaged against the incoming strategic missile wave. Prioritize defense of C2 nodes, critical infrastructure, and major population centers, specifically those under current UAV threat and historical missile targets. DECISION POINT: Full activation of tiered air defense response and dynamic reallocation of assets.
    • Public Safety: Issue continuous and urgent public warnings, instructing civilians to seek and remain in shelters. Ensure emergency services are pre-positioned for rapid response. DECISION POINT: Activation of comprehensive public alert and response protocols, pre-staging of emergency teams.
    • ISR on Strategic Bomber Return/Reload: Prioritize SIGINT/IMINT on RUF strategic airfields (Engels, Olenya, Dyagilevo) to confirm post-strike activity, refueling, and potential re-arming for follow-on waves. DECISION POINT: Reallocation of ISR assets to track bomber movements and readiness.
  • SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
    • BDA and Post-Strike Response: Conduct rapid BDA on all affected areas, prioritizing search and rescue, medical support, and immediate damage assessment for critical infrastructure. DECISION POINT: Allocation of emergency and reconstruction resources.
    • Air Defense Munitions Assessment: Immediate assessment of air defense munitions expenditure and initiation of urgent resupply requests based on consumption rates. DECISION POINT: Urgent logistical requests, particularly for Western AD munitions.
    • Ground Force Readiness Review: Evaluate RUF ground assault patterns and UAF defensive successes/challenges in Donetsk; adjust force posture and reserve allocation as needed. DECISION POINT: Operational adjustments for ground forces, including reinforcement of critical sectors.
  • MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
    • Logistical Security for US Aid: Implement enhanced security measures for anticipated incoming US weapons shipments and related logistical routes to mitigate MDCOA of targeting supply lines. This includes enhanced air defense coverage for rail/road hubs. DECISION POINT: Enhanced convoy protection, anti-strike measures, and logistical redundancy planning.
    • Strategic ISR Adaptation: Refine ISR collection plans to anticipate and track future large-scale RUF aerial attacks and assess the effectiveness of their new high-volume drone tactics. DECISION POINT: Adjust long-term ISR plan to focus on RUF deep strike capabilities and logistics.
    • Information Warfare Counter-Narrative: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RUF propaganda regarding overwhelming force and territorial gains, leveraging UAF successes (e.g., BDA on RUF vehicles, US aid confirmation) and highlighting civilian suffering. DECISION POINT: Develop and implement proactive public information campaigns.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. Full RUF Strategic Missile Loadout and Target Intent:
   • GAP: Precise types and quantities of missiles launched from Tu-95MS/Tu-160 aircraft. Exact flight paths and primary/secondary targeting for the current and anticipated strategic missile wave. Specific intent for potential high-value targets (C2, AD nodes).
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT on RUF strategic aviation communications and missile guidance systems. HIGH PRIORITY IMINT (satellite and aerial reconnaissance) of missile launch areas and pre-strike preparations. HIGH PRIORITY OSINT from monitoring public airspace data and RUF channels for inadvertent disclosures.
2. Verification of RUF Ground Gains and Damage Assessment (Eastern Axis):
   • GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims and impacts regarding the Donetsk stele block-post strike. Precise RUF and UAF lines of contact in the Donetsk Oblast following recent engagements.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY IMINT (satellite and drone imagery) of the claimed areas and recent impact sites. HIGH PRIORITY HUMINT from local sources or captured RUF personnel. HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT on RUF ground unit communications for confirmation of territorial control and BDA.
3. RUF Drone Inventory and Production Rate:
   • GAP: Detailed assessment of RUF's current inventory of Shahed-type and other strike UAVs. Confirmation of their daily/weekly production or acquisition rate to sustain "over 500 UAV" attacks.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY HUMINT from captured RUF drone operators or intelligence on RUF supply chains. MEDIUM PRIORITY OSINT on Russian industrial reports and Iranian/Chinese supply chain indicators. MEDIUM PRIORITY SIGINT to identify drone control frequencies and launch sites.
4. Impact of Renewed US Weapons Supply on RUF Planning and Cyber Response:
   • GAP: Assessment of RUF's immediate and long-term adaptation to the confirmed resumption of US weapons supply to Ukraine. Will this trigger a change in RUF operational tempo, targeting priorities (especially logistical routes), or lead to increased cyber activity?
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY SIGINT on RUF high-level command discussions and military planning communications. MEDIUM PRIORITY OSINT on Russian state media and expert commentary reacting to the announcement. HIGH PRIORITY CYBINT to monitor for preparatory cyber activity targeting Ukrainian infrastructure.
5. RUF Tactical Aviation Sortie Rates and Munitions (KABs):
   • GAP: Accurate assessment of RUF tactical aviation sortie rates, particularly those employing KABs, across all axes. Detailed BDA on the effects of these strikes on UAF fortifications and personnel.
   • CR: HIGH PRIORITY IMINT (drone and satellite imagery) of targeted areas. HIGH PRIORITY HUMINT from UAF units operating in affected sectors. MEDIUM PRIORITY SIGINT to track RUF aviation communications and munitions expenditure.