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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-11 19:05:07Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-11 18:35:03Z)

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 111900Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alert lifted. RUF UAV groups moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region persist. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Boryspil and a UAV on northern Kyiv Oblast moving southwest. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons in Synelnykivskyi Raion and a reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area, potentially acting as a spotter for RUF attack assets. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target (likely ballistic missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Threat of strike UAVs in Dnipro. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): RUF "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" (War Correspondents of Russian Spring) claim assaults on Poltavka and Popov Yar, and advancement towards Rusyn Yar. This indicates increased RUF ground pressure and potential for new territorial claims in this sector. Additionally, UAF Air Force reports RUF launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Threat of RUF strike UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kherson Oblast (Oleshky/Tyaginka): RUF sources continue to claim UAF strike on a residential building in Oleshky with two aerial bombs, causing people to be trapped under rubble, and that UAF drones are preventing rescue efforts. This is a persistent and amplified RUF narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF Colonelcassad provides video of a drone strike on a building in Tyaginka, Kherson Oblast, indicating RUF offensive operations in the area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports RUF launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) by tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Odesa Oblast: RUF media ("Воин DV") claims "Odessans are objectively monitoring the arrival of Russian Geran-type kamikaze drones on targets in Odesa," with accompanying video. This confirms continued RUF drone strikes on Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF Air Force provides an immediate assessment and updates on RUF drone movements towards Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Federation (General): Instablogger Maria Shalaeva boasted about flights into the closed Rostov airport on military aircraft due to a "Kremlin person." This could indicate misuse of military assets for personal gain within the RUF elite, potentially impacting morale or public perception of corruption. Russian Ministry of Justice added public movement "Our Way Out" to the list of foreign agents, indicating continued internal crackdown on dissenting organizations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Putin signed a decree on changes to military uniform regulations, a morale or identity-building measure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Black Sea/Azov Sea: Animated scheme from Colonelcassad displays RUF strikes on Ukrainian territory on 10-11 July 2025, confirming the scale and scope of recent aerial campaigns, and identifying strike locations in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ukraine (General Losses): The Ukrainian MoD confirms the decision to send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, indicating a significant material loss for the Russian Navy and potential resource allocation issues. This is corroborated by Ukrainian sources (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs in Dnipro.
  • Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts: Threat of strike UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Odesa Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • UAF:

    • Air Defense: STERNENKO reports "Shahedoriz (Shahed cutter) continues," indicating ongoing successful interception efforts. Air raid alert for Kyiv has been lifted. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Vinnytsia, and Odesa Oblasts. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports on general "mopeds" (drones) situation, implying ongoing activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Ground Forces: UAF Brigade "Bureviy" (likely 1st Presidential Brigade of Operational Purpose "Bureviy") destroyed a North Korean Type 75 MLRS on the Kupyansk direction. This is a significant BDA and highlights the presence of foreign-supplied RUF equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posted a video titled "Help and support for brothers in arms," suggesting internal support mechanisms, and another video showcasing "Black Sky" 3rd NGU Spartan Brigade operations, including destruction of RUF tank and quadcopter. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Logistics/Support: STERNENKO reports 44.6 million UAH collected out of 50 million for anti-thermal cloaks, indicating continued successful fundraising.
    • Governance/Diplomacy: SBU and Prosecutor General's Office (OGP) announced suspicion to Serhiy Kurchenko and other Russian businessmen for "appropriating" Ukrainian enterprises in occupied territories. This indicates continued efforts to combat corruption and protect national assets, even in occupied territories. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Zelensky stated he received reports on renewed weapons supplies, including from the US. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

  • RUF:

    • Ground Forces: "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" (Operatsia Z) claim ground assaults on Poltavka and Popov Yar, and advancement towards Rusyn Yar in Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk direction. These are unverified RUF claims of ground activity. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. Colonelcassad provides video evidence of a drone strike in Tyaginka, Kherson Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Deep Operations: Colonelcassad released an animated scheme visualizing RUF strikes on Ukraine on 10-11 July 2025, detailing missile trajectories and impact areas. This confirms the multi-regional nature of the recent deep strikes. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Information Warfare/Internal Security: MoD Russia released a video of a captured UAF POW claiming forced conscription and mistreatment. This is part of RUF's ongoing disinformation campaign targeting Ukrainian morale and legitimacy of mobilization. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming "mogilization" (forced mobilization) in Rivne, showing uniformed individuals apprehending a person, further reinforcing RUF propaganda of forced mobilization in Ukraine. This is consistent with previous RUF narratives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports on desertion being a "main problem" for UAF, amplifying a RUF narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA reports a civilian injured in Horlivka from a UAF drone attack, a RUF narrative on UAF targeting civilians. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Naval Assets: BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (Butusov Plus) reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense has decided to send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, abandoning repair efforts despite previous significant investment. This represents a major material loss and a strategic setback for the Russian Navy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Sustained Aerial Attacks: RUF demonstrates the capability to conduct prolonged, multi-regional aerial attacks using a mix of drones (Shaheds, recon UAVs) and missiles (ballistic, KABs), as shown by the animated strike scheme and new reports from Vinnytsia, Sumy, and Odesa. This indicates high coordination and robust munition supply. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Ground Offensive Operations: RUF maintains capability for localized ground assaults to achieve incremental territorial gains, particularly on the Donetsk axes (Poltavka, Popov Yar, Rusyn Yar) and appears to be conducting localized drone strikes in Kherson (Tyaginka). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Information Warfare & Propaganda: RUF shows continued capability for comprehensive information operations, including the use of POW videos and state media (TASS) to promote narratives of forced conscription, high desertion rates, and low morale within UAF. They also continue to attribute civilian casualties to UAF (e.g., Horlivka, Oleshky) to demonize Ukrainian forces. Rybar's mention of "blogger on board military aircraft" indicates a sensitivity to, and attempt to manage, perceived internal corruption narratives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Internal Security & Control: The listing of "Our Way Out" as a foreign agent and the new decree on military uniform demonstrate continued capability to suppress internal dissent and exert state control over civil society and military image. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Intentions:
    • Continue Pressure on Eastern Front: RUF intends to maintain and increase ground pressure on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction), attempting to secure further tactical advances around Poltavka, Popov Yar, and Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Degrade Ukrainian Morale and Force Generation: RUF aims to undermine Ukrainian public morale and recruitment efforts by propagating narratives of forced mobilization, mistreatment of conscripts, high desertion rates, and allegedly inhumane actions by UAF forces (e.g., Oleshky, Horlivka incidents). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Sustain Deep Strikes: RUF intends to continue employing long-range aerial attacks across Ukrainian territory to degrade critical infrastructure, military targets, and sow panic. The use of KABs in Donetsk and Sumy indicates a focus on supporting ground operations and shaping the battlefield. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories: By notifying suspicion to individuals who "appropriated" Ukrainian enterprises, RUF (via its proxies/authorities) intends to assert legal and economic control over occupied areas, possibly aiming to legitimize Russian governance. This also serves to suppress any Ukrainian resistance or economic activity that is not controlled by Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Reinforce Internal Control: RUF intends to continue to suppress internal dissent and maintain societal control through measures like labeling organizations as "foreign agents" and regulating aspects of military life (uniforms). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Target Ukrainian Logistics: RUF's ongoing drone activity in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia suggests an intent to disrupt Ukrainian logistical hubs and supply lines, particularly those linked to Black Sea ports. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Courses of Action:
    • MLCOA: RUF will continue attritional ground assaults on the Pokrovsk (Donetsk) axis, aiming for incremental gains, potentially supported by intensified KAB strikes. Concurrently, they will sustain high-volume, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting deep Ukrainian territory, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia, while intensifying information operations to degrade UAF morale and justify their actions.
    • MDCOA: A rapid, concentrated offensive push from the Pokrovsk direction, attempting a localized breakthrough supported by overwhelming air and artillery, possibly aimed at encircling or isolating a key UAF defensive node. Alternatively, a significant escalation of strikes on Odesa to disrupt port operations, potentially coupled with naval activity.

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

  • RUF:
    • Increased Narrative Emphasis on Ukrainian "Atrocities" and Weakness: RUF is intensifying its narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities," particularly concerning the Oleshky strike, claiming UAF prevents rescue efforts, and now reporting civilian injury in Horlivka. Concurrently, they are amplifying narratives of UAF desertion (TASS) and forced mobilization (Rivne video) to paint a picture of a collapsing Ukrainian fighting force. This is a psychological warfare adaptation designed to dehumanize UAF and garner international sympathy/sow internal discord. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Consolidation of Economic Control in Occupied Territories: The new charges against Serhiy Kurchenko and Russian businessmen for appropriating Ukrainian enterprises on the Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT) indicate a shift towards legal and economic consolidation of control, possibly aiming to legitimize their presence and exploit resources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Public Display of POWs for Disinformation: The video of a UAF POW detailing forced conscription is a direct tactical adaptation in RUF's information warfare, designed to directly target Ukrainian morale and force generation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Increased Use of KABs in Support of Ground Operations: The reported KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts indicate an adaptation to provide more direct and impactful air support to ground forces, potentially to soften defenses before assaults. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF:
    • Targeting Foreign-Supplied RUF Equipment: The destruction of the North Korean Type 75 MLRS demonstrates UAF's effective targeting of foreign-supplied RUF equipment, indicating an adaptation to counter Russia's expanding procurement networks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Counter-Disinformation on Domestic Issues: The SBU and OGP announcing suspicion against businessmen "appropriating" Ukrainian enterprises in occupied territories is an adaptation to proactively counter RUF narratives about their governance and control in these areas, and to demonstrate continued Ukrainian legal authority. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Public Acknowledgement of Renewed Western Aid: President Zelensky's statement about renewed weapon supplies, including from the US, serves to boost morale and counter RUF narratives of waning international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

  • RUF:
    • Naval Assets: The decision to scrap the "Admiral Kuznetsov" indicates a significant long-term material loss for the Russian Navy and suggests significant challenges in maintaining and repairing its larger naval assets. This frees up resources previously allocated for its failed repair. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Internal Supply Chains: "Rybar" discusses "problems with logistics" without specific details, but this suggests ongoing, unspecified logistical challenges within RUF operations. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" also highlights logistics at the front line as an important topic, corroborating potential issues. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. The commentary about "pests in Azerbaijani agro-products" by "Два майора" might relate to broader import issues affecting civilian supply chains, potentially impacting the military in the long term, but this is a low confidence assessment. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
  • UAF:
    • Equipment Procurement (Volunteer Sourced): The continued success of fundraising for anti-thermal cloaks (44.6M UAH collected) demonstrates the enduring effectiveness of volunteer networks in supplementing official military procurement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • International Aid: President Zelensky's statement about renewed weapons supplies from partners, including the US, confirms continued international logistical support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

  • RUF:
    • Strategic C2: The animated strike scheme from Colonelcassad and continued multi-regional KAB/drone launches suggest effective centralized strategic and operational C2 capable of coordinating widespread, multi-domain aerial attacks across Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Information Operations C2: Coordinated release of POW videos, desertion claims, and narratives on Oleshky/Horlivka incidents by multiple RUF channels (MoD Russia, TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA, Colonelcassad) indicates strong C2 over information warfare efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Internal Control C2: The Ministry of Justice's decision to list "Our Way Out" as a foreign agent and Putin's decree on uniforms demonstrates centralized control over internal security and civil society/military affairs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF:
    • Strategic & Internal C2: The coordinated efforts by SBU and OGP to notify suspicion to Russian businessmen appropriating Ukrainian enterprises in occupied territories highlight effective inter-agency C2 and a clear commitment to legal and economic countermeasures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Zelensky's public statement on renewed weapon supplies demonstrates strategic C2 in managing information for morale and international relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Air Defense C2: The lifting of air raid alerts and ongoing "Shahedoriz" indicates effective and responsive C2 for air defense operations. UAF Air Force timely updates on drone movements demonstrate effective real-time C2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Frontline C2: The "Black Sky" video, while propaganda, implies effective C2 at the unit level for drone operations and engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

  • Posture: UAF maintains a dynamic defensive posture, reacting to sustained RUF aerial attacks and localized ground assaults while conducting targeted counter-strikes and interdiction operations (e.g., destruction of North Korean MLRS, drone strikes on RUF assets in Tyaginka). Active efforts to bolster air defense posture against renewed drone and KAB threats.
  • Readiness:
    • Air Defense: High readiness, with "Shahedoriz" operations continuing successfully, indicating sustained capability to intercept drone threats. Real-time updates on drone movements from UAF Air Force further demonstrate responsiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Ground Forces: Demonstrates offensive capability in specific sectors, as evidenced by the destruction of the North Korean MLRS on the Kupyansk direction and the "Black Sky" video. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Technological Integration: Ongoing fundraising for anti-thermal cloaks and focus on drone interdiction (Shahedoriz) indicates active efforts to enhance technological readiness against RUF threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Internal Resilience: Proactive measures to address economic appropriation in occupied territories (SBU/OGP actions) and President Zelensky's public statements on renewed aid demonstrate continued governance and legal readiness, alongside efforts to maintain public and military morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Air Defense: Continued success in intercepting RUF aerial assets, notably Shahed drones ("Shahedoriz") and providing timely updates. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • High-Value Target Destruction: Destruction of a rare North Korean Type 75 MLRS on the Kupyansk direction is a significant tactical success, degrading RUF artillery capabilities and showcasing effective UAF targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The "Black Sky" video also suggests successful engagements against RUF armor and drones. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
    • Information and Legal Countermeasures: SBU and OGP's actions against Russian businessmen appropriating Ukrainian enterprises in TOT represent a success in the legal and information domain, asserting Ukrainian sovereignty and combating economic aggression. President Zelensky's announcement of renewed Western aid is a significant communication success. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Fundraising: Continued strong support from volunteer networks, nearing the 50 million UAH target for anti-thermal cloaks, demonstrates sustained civilian support and effective resource mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Setbacks:
    • Continued Civilian Exposure to Aerial Attacks: Despite successful interceptions, ongoing RUF aerial attacks (drones, KABs) still pose a constant threat to civilian areas, requiring perpetual vigilance and resource allocation. Reports of civilian injury in Horlivka and ongoing threats to Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Vinnytsia highlight this. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Persistent Disinformation Campaigns: RUF's sustained and amplified disinformation campaigns (Oleshky, Horlivka, forced mobilization, desertion) present an ongoing challenge to Ukrainian information efforts and public morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

  • Requirements:
    • Air Defense Munitions: Continued high demand for air defense interceptor munitions due to sustained RUF aerial campaigns (drones, ballistic missiles, KABs).
    • Anti-UAV Capabilities: Ongoing need for counter-UAV and EW systems to counter the pervasive RUF drone threat across all axes.
    • Financial Support: Continued financial support from domestic fundraising and international partners remains crucial for various military and humanitarian needs.
    • Ground Forces Materiel: Continued supply of ground force materiel to withstand attritional assaults and enable counter-strikes.
  • Constraints:
    • Resource Allocation: Balancing active defense, offensive operations, and internal stability measures (e.g., anti-corruption efforts) strains existing resources.
    • Manpower: Persistent RUF focus on "forced mobilization" and "desertion" narratives suggests an ongoing RUF assessment of Ukrainian manpower constraints, necessitating continuous force generation efforts and effective public messaging.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

  • RUF:
    • Narrative of Ukrainian Weakness and Brutality: RUF is aggressively pushing narratives of Ukrainian military personnel being forcibly mobilized, lacking morale (POW video), high desertion rates (TASS), and engaging in inhumane acts (Oleshky airstrike, allegedly preventing rescue, Horlivka drone attack). The video claiming "mogilization" in Rivne and TASS reports on desertion are prime examples of attempting to portray Ukrainian mobilization as coercive and desperate, and their military as collapsing. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Projection of Russian Strength and Control: The animated scheme of strikes on Ukraine and Putin's decree on military uniforms are intended to project RUF power, control over the conflict space, and internal stability. The decision to scrap "Admiral Kuznetsov" could be framed domestically as a pragmatic move, but externally it highlights a significant military material loss. The listing of "Our Way Out" as a foreign agent signals firm state control over civil society. The Maria Shalaeva incident, while potentially an embarrassment, could be spun as a sign of elite connections or "perks" within the system, but Rybar's mention suggests internal criticism. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Exploitation of Internal Issues: RUF continues to exploit any perceived internal issues within Ukraine (e.g., mobilization challenges) to undermine public trust and international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF:
    • Highlighting RUF War Crimes and Civilian Impact: Ukrainian sources continue to emphasize the ongoing threat of RUF aerial attacks ("Shahedoriz") and the civilian impact, implicitly condemning RUF actions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Showcasing Military Effectiveness: Publicizing the destruction of high-value RUF equipment (North Korean MLRS) and showcasing operational videos ("Black Sky") demonstrates UAF combat effectiveness and adaptability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Transparency and Accountability: The SBU and OGP's announcement of suspicion to Russian businessmen for enterprise appropriation reinforces a narrative of legal integrity and state control, counteracting RUF narratives of chaos or corruption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Showcasing Resilience and Support: Ongoing fundraising efforts (anti-thermal cloaks) and President Zelensky's announcement of renewed weapon supplies demonstrate continued societal and international support for the military, reinforcing national resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

  • Ukraine: Public sentiment remains strained by persistent aerial threats (drones, KABs) but is bolstered by evidence of successful air defense and military successes (e.g., MLRS destruction, "Black Sky" operations). Continued volunteer support (fundraising for cloaks) indicates high morale and commitment among the civilian population to support the military. Addressing internal corruption through legal action (SBU/OGP) can help maintain public trust and morale. President Zelensky's announcement of renewed Western aid will likely provide a morale boost. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russia: Public sentiment is being actively shaped by state propaganda that seeks to justify military actions, demonize the adversary, and project internal stability and strength. The scrapping of "Admiral Kuznetsov" could be a morale blow for some, but state media will likely downplay its significance. Narratives of UAF forced mobilization and brutality aim to solidify public support for the "special military operation." Internal crackdowns on civil society aim to suppress dissent and maintain a unified front. The Maria Shalaeva incident could contribute to cynicism regarding elite privileges, but is unlikely to significantly impact broader support for the war. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Rybar's comment on "bloggers on board military aircraft" suggests a degree of internal debate or discontent, but its broader impact is unclear. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

  • Ukraine: International support remains strong, demonstrated by President Zelensky's confirmation of renewed weapon supplies, implicitly backed by international legal frameworks for combating economic aggression in occupied territories. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russia: Russia continues its aggressive stance, amplifying internal propaganda narratives for a global audience, particularly concerning alleged Ukrainian "war crimes" to influence international opinion. The Times report on Trump considering a global oil embargo against Russia suggests potential future diplomatic/economic pressure on Russia, but also highlights a complex and evolving international landscape. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

  • Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

    • Sustained Aerial Pressure (Tier 1 Priority): RUF will continue large-scale, protracted, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting critical infrastructure (energy, military production), military assets (TCCs, PVDs), and population centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on saturating air defenses in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Poltava. This will involve high volumes of Shahed drones, coupled with ballistic and cruise missiles. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia, including the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, and further targeting of gas pipelines or similar critical infrastructure inside Russia as UAF reciprocal actions. The increased use of KABs in Donetsk and Sumy suggests their integration into ground support operations.
    • Attritional Ground Offensives (Tier 2 Priority): RUF will maintain high-tempo, attritional ground assaults in the Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk - specifically Poltavka, Popov Yar, Rusyn Yar) and Kharkiv regions (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, and newly opened Velikiy Burluk direction), aiming for incremental territorial gains through mass and disregard for casualties. The commitment of reserves (e.g., 83rd AAB) indicates an intent to push for tactical breakthroughs in these areas. Probing attacks and attempts to consolidate gains in Sumy Oblast (including Hrushevske and Novohatske, if confirmed) will continue. Localized drone strikes in Kherson (Tyaginka) will likely continue in support of ground operations.
    • Targeting Recruitment (Tier 3 Priority): Explicitly target Ukrainian military recruitment and force generation infrastructure, as evidenced by the Odesa TCC strike and intensified information operations targeting mobilization and amplifying desertion narratives.
    • Consolidation and Probing in Border Regions: RUF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka) and Kharkiv region (Sobolevka). Concurrently, they will conduct probing attacks in new directions, such as attempting to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to stretch UAF defenses.
    • Hybrid Warfare Intensification: RUF will escalate information warfare and propaganda, focusing on demoralizing UAF, undermining international support for Ukraine, and maintaining domestic support for the conflict. This will include amplifying narratives of Ukrainian manpower shortages, corruption, and Western abandonment. Attempts at internal subversion or targeted assassinations are also possible. RUF will continue to use its language policy to consolidate influence in occupied territories. RUF will increase efforts to control internal narratives and suppress dissent (e.g., increased LGBT propaganda protocols, migration patrols, listing of "foreign agents"). RUF will also attempt to consolidate economic control over occupied territories by targeting individuals and entities deemed to have "appropriated" assets.

  • Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

    • Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis targeting Kharkiv and Dnipro: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod and Kursk, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves. Simultaneously, a concerted effort to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast could lead to a strategic breakthrough, threatening critical industrial and logistical hubs. This would be coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas to fix UAF forces on that axis.
    • Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas with Reserve Commitment: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. This would be supported by overwhelming air power (including increased KAB usage) and a disregard for personnel losses ("human wave" tactics).
    • Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack.
    • Strategic Maritime Blockade: RUF attempts a more robust maritime blockade of Odesa and other Black Sea ports, possibly using naval assets and increased mine-laying, severely impacting Ukraine's economy and international trade, potentially coupled with intensified deep strikes on port infrastructure.

  • Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

    • IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
      • Damage Control & Humanitarian Response: Continue immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in affected areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lipetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Odesa, and Donetsk Oblast). Prioritize addressing civilian fatalities and injuries, including those potentially trapped under rubble in Oleshky and the reported civilian injury in Horlivka. Focus on humanitarian aid to areas receiving water purification stations.
      • Air Defense & ISR Alert: Maintain high air defense alert for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by RUF UAV groups towards all Ukrainian oblasts, especially Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Poltava. Prioritize response to any new ballistic missile threat (Sumy, Westward, Dnipro). Task ISR to verify RUF claims of territorial gains (especially Poltavka, Popov Yar, Rusyn Yar, Hrushevske and Novohatske, and now Khatnoe) and assess damage to Russian military-industrial targets. Focus on confirming any further RUF ground advances in Sumy Oblast and the impact of the UAF strike on the gas pipeline in Langepas. Monitor for RUF strategic aviation activity and KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk.
      • Information Counter-Offensive: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives of Ukrainian weakness, including those related to POWs, forced mobilization, and desertion. Proactively highlight RUF war crimes and civilian casualties, especially children. Actively counter RUF narratives celebrating strikes on TCCs and portraying Ukrainian personnel as looters. Counter any RUF claims regarding UAF actions in Oleshky and Horlivka, particularly those alleging UAF interference with rescue efforts or intentional targeting of civilians. Highlight Ukrainian air defense successes (Odesa interceptor drone, record UAV shootdowns) and destruction of foreign-supplied RUF equipment (North Korean MLRS, "Black Sky" targets). Actively counter RUF efforts to influence public opinion through debunking false narratives (e.g., military aircraft misuse). Proactively counter RUF narratives of Ukrainian brigade command fleeing Kupyansk. Publicly address and refute RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, and sweets. Leverage the scrapping of "Admiral Kuznetsov" as a sign of RUF logistical and material weakness. Publicly acknowledge renewed weapon supplies.
    • SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
      • Air Defense Allocation & Reinforcement: Make critical decisions on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions to protect high-value targets and population centers, especially in response to KAB threats. Expedite delivery and integration of newly committed Patriot systems. Deploy additional counter-UAS and EW assets to frontline sectors. Prioritize delivery of additional SAMP/T systems.
      • Frontline Defense & Rotation: Continue to repel RUF ground pressure. Commanders on the Pokrovsk (Poltavka, Popov Yar, Rusyn Yar), Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, and Velikiy Burluk axes should implement contingency plans for the rotation of frontline units to mitigate combat exhaustion. Pre-position engineering assets to counter potential envelopment. Prioritize defense against any RUF push towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Secure and reinforce positions in Sumy Oblast following RUF claims of capture. Reinforce counter-mobility efforts, particularly against crossings.
      • Internal Security & Logistics: Continue investigations into corruption cases and implement reforms to improve supply chain integrity (e.g., tax evasion/smuggling, DBR investigations on Shabunin, fake medical certificates, appropriation of enterprises, including those mentioned in SBU/OGP reports). Support the visit of Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, ensuring security and maximizing diplomatic outcomes. Address the "Rerezerv+" app status. Continue police operations against criminal groups undermining UAF operations. Review and secure UAF fiber optic communication infrastructure. Implement announced government changes, including any Cabinet reshuffle.
      • Diplomatic Response: Prepare a nuanced diplomatic response to Polish demands regarding the Volyn massacre, balancing national interests with allied unity. Continue ambassadorial rotations. Continue dialogue with China. Expedite discussions with Ghana regarding drone production financing. Address the implications of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" scrapping in diplomatic channels to emphasize Russia's declining naval power. Reiterate importance of renewed Western aid to international partners. Respond to TASS desertion claims.
    • MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
      • Aid Effectiveness & RUF Adaptation: Monitor the operational impact of new US and EU aid deliveries, particularly the newly confirmed $500M US security assistance. Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their own drone/counter-UAV technology developments.
      • Strategic Assessment: Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure. Analyze the implications of the SBU Colonel assassination and other high-value target liquidations on RUF and UAF internal security and C2. Re-evaluate overall RUF intent and capabilities based on Budanov's statement regarding the Dnipropetrovsk advance and the new Velikiy Burluk axis. Continue to monitor for any new deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets, particularly gas pipelines, and their impact on RUF VPC. Assess the implications of RUF's new state language policy on internal dynamics and occupied territories. Assess the potential for foreign volunteer recruitment. Assess the implications of internal Russian social events (e.g., "Bryansk Field Day") for RUF public messaging and resource allocation. Assess the impact of the alleged VDV internal incident on RUF military discipline and morale.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  1. RUF Ground Operations and Territorial Claims (Donetsk and Sumy/Kharkiv Borders):
    • GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding assaults on Poltavka, Popov Yar, and advancement towards Rusyn Yar in Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk direction). Confirmation of any new territorial control or significant gains in these areas. Details on the forces involved and UAF response effectiveness. Verification of the extent of RUF control/activity in Tyaginka, Kherson Oblast.
    • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification of claimed advances. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications related to these assaults. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT.
  2. RUF Logistics and Resource Allocation (Admiral Kuznetsov Impact and General Logistics):
    • GAP: Full assessment of the implications of scrapping the "Admiral Kuznetsov" for RUF naval capabilities, resource reallocation, and long-term force projection. Any detailed information on "problems with logistics" reported by Rybar and "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА".
    • CR: IMINT on Russian shipyards and naval bases. HUMINT from within Russia on resource allocation shifts within the MOD. OSINT monitoring of Russian naval analyst discussions and official statements regarding naval modernization. Further HUMINT on frontline logistics challenges.
  3. UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack & KAB Usage:
    • GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense and countering KABs. Specific delivery timelines for new Patriot and SAMP/T systems. How will the newly launched Kyiv drone interception system integrate and impact overall ADM effectiveness and consumption?
    • CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements. Monitor the initial effectiveness and challenges of the new Kyiv drone interception system, particularly in light of the successful Odesa interceptor drone.
  4. Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Territorial Claims (Updated):
    • GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded, or large-scale desertion figures), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Zelena Dolyna, Mirny and Voskresenka, Novonykolaivka in Sumy, Sobolevka in Kharkiv, Kamenskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Bessalovka in Sumy, Hrushevske and Novohatske, and the new Velikiy Burluk direction, including Khatnoe village). Precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes, claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles, alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination and the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko. Verification of the VDV cadet killing a commander report. Confirmation of the specific impact of the Odesa TCC strike and any civilian casualties/collateral damage related to it. Verification of the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines. Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv. Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight. Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust. Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. Assess the impact of RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and key supply routes near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. Verify the impact of the drone strike shown by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС near Chasiv Yar. Assess the veracity and implications of the Alex Parker Returns photo message (If you have...). Assess any broader implications of the reported interrogation and threat to a serviceman. Verify the extent of the impact of the nationwide payment system failure in Russia on military procurement. Verify the claims of forced mobilization and "man-hunters" in Kovel, particularly the video from Rivne. Verify impact of F-35 operational issues on Western aid to Ukraine. Verify destruction of the pontoon crossing near Ivanivka. Verify RUF claims regarding the impact of DeepState maps on UAF operations. Verify the extent of damage and casualties from the reported UAF airstrike on Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, and the claims of UAF preventing rescue efforts. Verify the claim of a Ukrainian soldier neutralized an enemy in hand-to-hand combat. Verify the veracity of the "destroyed Ukrainian soldier" video from Оперативний ЗСУ. Verification of the alleged killing of a VDV sergeant by a cadet. Verification of the destruction of the North Korean Type 75 MLRS. Verification of the capture of a Ukrainian soldier by RUF's "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА." Verification of the claimed civilian injury in Horlivka from UAF drone attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination.
  5. RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory (Updated):
    • GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile, KAB, and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Ukrainian oblasts, specifically in Poltava and Kyiv regions. Specific impact of UAF drone strikes on Russian military-industrial facilities (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant, Tula Instrument Design Bureau, Kronstadt UAV production facility, Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise," Orsk Mechanical Plant, "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, gas pipeline in Langepas). Capabilities and launch methods for alleged sea-launched drones used in the Odesa attack. Full BDA on the destroyed gas pipeline. Confirmation if the non-explosive Shahed impact in Odesa indicates a new tactic or a failure. Confirmation of any new strategic aviation launches (Tu-95MS) and their intended targets. What are the specific capabilities and operational impact of WarGonzo's reported "new drone control system"?
    • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base. Analyze flight patterns and track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Conduct BDA for precise damage assessment and production impact. Investigate alleged sea-launch platforms and methods. Monitor further developments from the "Dronnitsa" meeting. Conduct forensic analysis on the gas pipeline incident to determine cause and origin of attack. Conduct TECHINT on new RUF drone control systems and their operational implications.
  6. UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
    • GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes. What is the overall impact of the "Армія+" survey on military efficiency and morale? What are the implications of the scheme to sell fake medical certificates for mobilization evasion? What is the impact of tax exemptions for mobilized private entrepreneurs on UAF force generation? What is the full impact of the criminal group liquidating, especially on forged mobilization documents? What is the impact of the suspicion against a Member of Parliament for facilitating privatization of forest land? What is the impact of the new charges against Serhiy Kurchenko and Russian businessmen for enterprise appropriation? What are the full implications of Umierov's potential appointment as US Ambassador for Cabinet stability and future policy?
    • CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units. Investigate the scale of fake medical certificate schemes. Monitor ongoing police and DBR investigations related to corruption impacting UAF. Track government statements and media reactions regarding the potential Cabinet reshuffle.
  7. Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
    • GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US, UK, German, Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems. What are the specific implications of Trump's statements and potential US policy shifts, particularly regarding the hinted transfer of important weapons, and a global oil embargo? What is the projected timeline for initial deliveries and operational deployment of newly resumed French SCALP missiles to Ukraine, and what is the projected rate of production? What is the impact of the proposed EU floating price cap on Russian oil? What is the full scope and impact of US commitment to "American drone dominance" on future aid and technological transfer? What are the specific conditions or caveats to UK's readiness to send troops to Ukraine for a potential ceasefire? What are the specific demands from the US regarding European Patriot donations? What is the precise allocation and intended use of the approved $500 million in US aid? What are the implications of Ghana's willingness to finance Ukrainian drone production for the scale and type of drones that can be produced? What are the specific outcomes and long-term implications of the "Sea Breeze 25-2" exercises?
    • CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment. Monitor international media and diplomatic channels for further details on US policy shifts and aid commitments, including the specifics of the "Coalition of the Willing." Monitor official statements regarding future Ukraine-US meetings.
  8. RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion (Updated):
    • GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, suppression of dissent, Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports, local political/cultural controversies, and alleged misuse of military assets by high-ranking officials) are diverting significant resources from military operations. What is the full C2 impact of the recent high-level RUF casualties in Kursk and the liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov on the affected units, particularly the 155th Marine Brigade? What is the impact of the FSB operation in Bryansk on UAF drone capabilities and Russian internal security? What are the implications of the humanitarian issue involving a Russian family in Sweden facing deportation to Tajikistan? What are the broader geopolitical implications of Turkey's alleged victory over the PKK for Russian influence in the Middle East and Caucasus? What is the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod? What is the scope and duration of water outages in occupied Lugansk and their impact on local population and RUF operations? What are the broader implications of corruption cases within the Russian MoD (e.g., Timofeev prosecution, Belgorod defense structures) for RUF logistics and public trust? What is the current operational status of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" and its final disposition? What is the impact of a potential ban on gasoline exports on domestic energy supply and military logistics? What is the strategic significance of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF media? What is the internal impact of the "Revolt-center" incident in Syktyvkar on domestic dissent? What are the implications of the declining ability of Russian citizens to purchase medicines? What is the nature and scale of internal ethnic tensions within Russia? What is the impact of the new state language policy on internal cohesion and potential for dissent among non-Russian ethnic groups? What are the implications of the closure of the Polish Consulate in Kaliningrad? What are the details of the extradition of the accused to Latvia? What is the extent of the impact of the nationwide payment system failure in Russia on military procurement and broader economic stability? What is the significance of the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov for internal security and counter-terrorism narratives? What is the impact of dry blood plasma application on RUF combat casualty care? What is the influence of Defense Minister Belousov's inspections on troop morale and operational efficiency? What is the full context and implication of the "naked migrant worker" FPV drone strike video for RUF propaganda and internal messaging? What are the implications of the listing of the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable organization"? What is the full impact of the "LGBT propaganda" protocols on social cohesion and human rights within Russia? What is the potential impact of the alleged VDV cadet killing a sergeant on military morale and recruitment? What is the actual impact of the Alex Parker Returns video and commentary debunking military aircraft misuse on public opinion in Russia? What are the specific aims and outcomes of the "children's card" initiative for buying books? What is the full context of the "Исход 3.0" letter from a reader? What is the impact of the reassessment of allowing older drivers on Russian infrastructure and society? What are the specifics of Putin's latest instructions (e.g., changes to military uniform regulations)?
    • CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from within Russia on resource allocation shifts. HUMINT and SIGINT on affected RUF units to gauge C2 disruption and subsequent operational changes. Monitor legal proceedings related to corruption in the MoD. Prioritize IMINT on "Admiral Kuznetsov." Monitor any economic impacts of fuel export bans. Assess geopolitical implications of Chinese military activities. Monitor internal dissent and related actions. Monitor reports on social and health issues. Analyze RUF propaganda response to the "naked migrant worker" video.
  9. Impact of Extreme Weather on Ukrainian Infrastructure & Operations:
    • GAP: Detailed assessment of the damage and humanitarian impact of severe flooding in Lviv, Lutsk, and Pavlohrad Oblasts. What is the current capacity of emergency services and how will it affect resource allocation?
    • CR: IMINT, OSINT (local news, social media), and HUMINT from affected regions and emergency services. Assess impact on key transportation routes and critical infrastructure.

END OF REPORT

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