Sitrep 2025-07-11 16:05:59

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 111603Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kyiv Oblast: RUF concluded a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours. Casualties: two (2) killed, twenty-eight (28) injured. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium and residential buildings. Vatican Embassy also reported damage. Firefighting operations concluded. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes temporarily changed but restored. New RUF UAV groups moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. Post-attack, rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace. Unidentified passenger aircraft sighted over Kyiv for the first time since the full-scale invasion; identified as a cargo plane. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. Aggressor struck Pokrovska Hromada, Synelnykivskyi Raion, with UAVs, damaging an agricultural enterprise and causing a fire. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons in Synelnykivskyi Raion. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area, potentially acting as a spotter for RUF attack assets, and UAF means are engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target (likely ballistic missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a minus on a drone. Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov states RUF forces seek to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. RUF FPV drones and artillery targeted Nikopol, Myrove, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in Yenakiieve. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports TOS-1A Solntsepyok unit destroyed an enemy fortified position for UAV launches in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk). ASTRA reports seven people killed and nine injured in Donetsk Oblast on July 10, according to the National Police. DeepState reports on RUF FPV drone strikes on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged civilian vehicles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Verkhnokamyanske and towards Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske, employing "human wave" tactics. The risk of a tactical breakthrough in this sector is HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortified positions and basements used by RUF in destroyed buildings. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne, Stupochky and Bila Hora. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) at work. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian armored vehicle destroyed along with infantry near Chasiv Yar during a repelled assault, confirming effective UAF defense. Video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows a Russian occupant being engaged by a drone operator from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Chasiv Yar. New RUF map indicates continued operations in Chasiv Yar direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. Enemy forces attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations; SIGINT corroborates degraded morale and combat effectiveness in forward Russian units. Enemy has committed operational reserves, including elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade moving towards Vovchansk. TASS reports more than 10 major UAF attacks repelled near Bohuslavka. Oleg Syniehubov reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv City and 10 settlements over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Starytsa, Vovchansk, Zapadne and Zelene in South Slobozhansky direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the operational zone of OTU "Kharkiv" as of the morning of July 11, 2025. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, discussed operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, showing damaged infrastructure and reporting on unsuccessful Russian assaults. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City): Nine (9) injured in Kharkiv after night attack. Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility. RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. Maternity hospital affected. ASTRA reports nine people injured in night attacks on Saltivskyi district, including mothers and newborn children from a maternity hospital. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports three infants were injured during Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share photos of aftermath, focusing on damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital, and casualties. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, shares photos of Kharkiv recovering after drone strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi, and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. Video shows flood from bird's eye view. New video footage confirms "Geran-2" (Shahed) drone attack in Lutsk overnight, with significant fires and explosions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down. Initial reports of significant fire at a power substation (TETs) were confirmed by Operatyvnyi ZSU video, but the governor now claims the fire was not related to a drone attack. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Smolensk Oblast, Russian Federation: Three (3) UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by air defense forces. TASS reports Starovoyta was buried in Smolensk cemetery. The context implies a casualty, possibly military, but details are not provided. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. Acting Mayor of Sumy reports RUF drone attacks on Sumy suburbs, with no casualties. Russian forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews released video claiming to show capture of Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, indicating direct RUF ground action in the region. KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. New photo message from RUF source details "Sumy - Miropolye" direction. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, moving west. New groups of RUF drones are currently in northern Sumy Oblast and heading towards northern Chernihiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). A 48-year-old man was injured in a RUF attack on Zaporizhzhia Raion. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an alert (🚨УВАГА🚨). UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons and strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a 71-year-old woman was killed as a result of an enemy attack on Polohivskyi Raion. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of aftermath of attacks, similar to Kharkiv reports by Syniehubov and Zelenskiy. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photo messages about compensation for rental housing for Defenders, indicating internal support measures. 58-year-old man killed in Stepnohirsk community due to enemy shelling. Air raid siren canceled. Video from Zaporizhzhia OVA shows a wheelchair ramp installation and use in a civilian administrative building, focusing on accessibility for veterans. A rebuilt Ukrsibbank branch resumed operation on Soborny Ave in Zaporizhzhia, indicating recovery efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons held a meeting in Voznesensk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of aviation weapons in Mykolaiv Oblast. Ballistic missile launched from Crimea towards Vilkove. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. A group of RUF UAVs from Sumy Oblast is moving through Terny and Krolevets towards Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports groups of RUF strike UAVs in Mena, Olishivka, and Oster districts of Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace, indicating immediate threat. UAF Air Force reports a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Chernihiv region; means engaged. New groups of RUF drones are currently in northern Sumy Oblast and heading towards northern Chernihiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions. New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports due to drone activity. MoD Russia claims 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. MoD Russia reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region. Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and will make an important statement on Russia on July 14. ASTRA reports that Pukovo Airport has temporarily suspended operations. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow and Russian regions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims 155 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian PVO overnight. WarGonzo shares a "Frontline summary." Kotsnews shares video of an award ceremony for "Assault Troopers." Север.Реалии confirms 155 UAVs shot down over Russia, two people killed. Lavrov declined to comment on Rubio's statements. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. Военкор Котенок reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian territory overnight, including 1 over Penza, 1 over Tula, 1 over Orel, 19 over Bryansk, 1 over Rostov, 1 over Kaluga, 11 over Moscow, 1 over Voronezh, 1 over Kursk, 1 over Lipetsk, and 1 over Ryazan. This confirms widespread UAF drone activity into Russian territory. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. TASS reports Lavrov stated Europe forgot lessons of history and tries to raise it for war with Russia. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the number of deserters in the Ukrainian army has exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and discusses forced mobilization in Ukraine mentioned in Europe (RUF propaganda). ТАСС reports the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip, with captions criticizing the private use of military aircraft by a high-ranking Russian official's "mistress," suggesting internal corruption and misuse of military assets. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. Peskov states that the possible deployment of foreign military contingents in Ukraine near Russian borders is unacceptable for Moscow. Fire reported at Orsk Mechanical Plant, which produces artillery shells. TASS reports that a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. TASS reports the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, stated Russia is the main threat to his country. Russia is revoking consent for the operation of the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad. TASS reports Russia is revoking consent for the operation of the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad as a reciprocal measure. Russia extradited a person accused of violence against a 12-year-old girl to Latvia. Colonelcassad reports that Crimea Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments of 200,000 rubles to SVO participants from Crimea who participated between Feb 24 and Sep 21, 2022. TASS reports a boy who was thrown to the floor at Sheremetyevo Airport has been discharged from the hospital. A photo message from Alex Parker Returns appears to depict a social media post with text regarding "If you have..." and includes an image of a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. Военкор Котенок reports a nationwide payment system failure, impacting military procurement of drones. TASS reports Russian forces have begun using dry blood plasma for primary medical aid at the front lines. Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" unit, focusing on combat tasks. Russia's leading universities will transition to a new higher education system in the 2026-2027 academic year. Russia's Ministry of Justice added Yale University to the list of undesirable organizations. Putin approved the fundamentals of state language policy. Russia will continue to resist attempts to cancel its culture and restrict the use of Russian language. Russia will create a personnel reserve of Russian language teachers globally. Separate budget places in universities will be allocated for training Russian language teachers and philologists. Alphabets for languages of Russian peoples will be created on the basis of Cyrillic. Minjustice RF added public movement "Our Way Out" and 5 individuals to the list of "foreign agents". CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. TASS reports Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stating UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast are "successfully repelled." TASS reports 41,000 apartments and 14,000 damaged vehicles restored. Restoration in Repyakhovka and Vyazovoye cannot begin due to proximity to the border. More than 400 social facilities damaged. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calls Gladkov. Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly. TASS reports a resident of Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, died due to a UAF ammunition strike. ASTRA also confirms one person killed. Операция Z shares photo messages claiming "enemy attacks Belgorod region, killing civilians," including images of damage. Gladkov reports to Putin that 70,000 children were evacuated from Belgorod Oblast in summer/autumn 2024. TASS reports Gladkov presented Putin with a painting on a fragment of an air defense missile cover, depicting a girl with a dog and the inscription "Belgorod does not surrender," symbolizing resilience. ASTRA reports Prosecutor General's Office seeks nearly 1 billion rubles from organizers of defensive structures on Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Prosecutor General's Office is seeking almost 1 billion rubles from the organizers of the construction of fortifications on the border of Belgorod Oblast with Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. Mayor of Taganrog reports drone debris fell on the Beriev Aviation Plant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. TASS reports number of poisoned in Dagestan reached 372, 357 are children, 97 remain hospitalized. Video from Alex Parker Returns shows a physical altercation in a store in North Ossetia, alleged to be a Dagestani man beaten for wearing shorts, potentially indicative of inter-ethnic tensions within Russia. Head of Magaramkent district utilities arrested in Dagestan following mass water poisoning. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed. 19 enemy fixed-wing UAVs detected and destroyed overnight. MoD Russia reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 19 over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained two residents for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer. AV БогомаZ reports four additional UAVs of aircraft type were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by MoD RF Air Defense units. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. Ceremonial welcome at an agricultural festival or event in Russia ("Bryansk Field Day"). Bryansk Oblast reported as country's top potato producer, focusing on agricultural output. Firefighter competition took place in Bryansk Oblast, confirming local MChS activities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. New reporting indicates successful maritime attacks by Houthi movement on "MAGIC SEAS" and "ETERNITY C" vessels in the Red Sea. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast, with means engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports group of strike UAVs near Odesa in Black Sea. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) in Odesa. RUF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad) confirm strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Военкор Котенок reports confirmed "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on the Odesa Oblast TCC on Zankovetskaya Street. "Два майора" and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" also confirm the strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Kotsnews and WarGonzo also confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC, with Alex Parker Returns stating "Прилет одной из Геранек по областному ТЦК в Одессе. Быть добру!" RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video with a caption implying the destruction of a TCC in Odesa, further supporting the confirmed strike. Video captures significant explosion with large plume of dark smoke near Odesa, implied to be TCC strike. Colonelcassad posted a video of what they claim are Odesa residents conducting "objective control" of Geran drone strikes, with footage of an explosion. TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. New video shows a Shahed drone impact without explosion in Odesa. UAF successfully intercepted a Shahed drone with an interceptor drone in Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). New image shows tactical map for Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. RUF claims new positions in Dzerzhinsk and its vicinity, advancing towards Konstantinovka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Zaporizhzhya, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and Zelene Pole in Novopavlivka direction. Video shows UAV operators from 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaging a vehicle with personnel near Yanvarskyi, west of Voskresenka. RUF sources (Военкор Котенок, Два майора) report Russian forces have completely dislodged Ukrainian forces from Mirne (DPR). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction and Grigorievka. "Сливочный каприз" shows a map and drone footage related to Krasny Liman - Zelena Dolyna. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Novoyehorivka, Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Zelena Dolyna. Video from Russian MoD shows drone footage of an artillery strike near Zelena Dolyna, DPR, with a Russian flag being placed on a monument. Video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike. Video from Старше Эдды shows combat operations in Krasnolimansk direction, including artillery strikes, movement of personnel, and placement of a Russian flag on a monument, confirming the claimed capture of Zelena Dolyna. RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map depicting claimed "liberation of Zelena Dolyna." A RUF photo message with caption "Краснолиманское направление" shows a map, suggesting continued RUF focus on this sector. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian forces, specifically 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of 144th Motorized Rifle Division, captured Zelena Dolyna. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. Enemy forces have increased the tempo of probing attacks and localized assaults, assessed as a supporting effort. New image depicts "Pokrovsko-Mirnohradskoye direction" map. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that in the area of responsibility of the "Spartan" brigade, Russians do not abandon attempts to advance. TASS claims the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov is effectively in a "fire bag". General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Razine, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification in Krasnoarmeysk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault involving a "Tsar-tank." General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Katerynivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on a UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Lvove. UAF General Staff reports repelling 11 Russian army assaults. Saldo reports UAF conducted an airstrike on Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, with people trapped under rubble. This claim is reiterated by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, НгП раZVедка, Военкор Котенок, and Mash na Donbasse, with Russian sources claiming UAF is preventing rescue efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced and lifted an air danger regime. RUF reports a UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. One person confirmed killed, one injured. Игорь Артамонов, Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, announced a "red level" UAV threat for Lipetsk City and Lipetsk Municipal District. Igor Artamonov reports red level UAV threat called off. Igor Artamonov posts on "Pride of Lipetsk Land" program. Igor Artamonov reports the lifting of the "yellow level" of drone threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports burning production facilities of a major agro-holding after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports four people injured in a Ukrainian drone strike in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of two additional RUF Colonels (Sergey Ilyin, Commander of 155th Marine Brigade; Leonid Bashkardin, Chief of Staff of the Brigade) along with Major General Mikhail Gudkov and Colonel Nariman Shikhaliev from a missile strike on a command post in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast. Photo evidence indicates memorial plaques. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Военкор Котенок and Alex Parker Returns confirms the burial of Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, who died on July 2 during a missile strike on a meeting place. This further corroborates the high-value UAF strike. Drone footage shows what appears to be an attack on a ground target in a forested area in Kursk Oblast, with explosions and smoke, implying ongoing military engagement. TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the liquidation of the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Colombian volunteer fighting for Ukraine in Kursk Oblast. Russian MoD reports Ukrainian militants mined money, toys, and sweets in Kursk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow. Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. MoD Russia reports 11 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Moscow region overnight. Flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport lifted. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow. Новости Москвы reports forecasted peak heat of +36°C today. ASTRA reports Moscow has implemented enhanced security measures for law enforcement agencies in case of drone attacks from Russian territory, citing a source. Moscow weather update reports record high temperatures. Moscow Stock Exchange and St. Petersburg Exchange to resume trading for UGOC shares on July 14. Video shows public space, likely subway, with civilians; no military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Moscow is experiencing +36 degrees Celsius. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." Additionally, Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. Басурин о главном questions "Whom does Russophobia of Baku surprise?", implying growing anti-Russian sentiment. Rybar reports on US aiming for Zangezur corridor, discussing negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. RUF KABs reported on Kupyansk direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Zapadne and Petropavlivka. "Два майора" shares drone footage of military operations in Kupyansk direction, showing attacks on vehicles and positions. New RUF map details "Kupyansk - Manuylivka" direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. Bastrykin ordered a report on the car accident with a minibus. Mash na Donbasse reports a motorcyclist died after being hit by a car in Luhansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Red Sea: Unverified RUF media report with video claims maritime attack on vessels 'MAGIC SEAS' and 'ETERNITY C' by "people in slippers," implying Houthi involvement. This highlights the growing threat of USVs and ballistic missiles against maritime targets, a capability that RUF could attempt to emulate or exploit. Colonelcassad reports Houthi statement of increased compliance from merchant vessels after recent sinkings, indicating a shift in maritime behavior near Yemen. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Syberia, Russian Federation: Alex Parker Returns refers to Yugra as "homeland of Uzbeks" in a video, hinting at internal ethnic tensions/disputes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Syktyvkar, Russian Federation: City court released Darya Chernysheva, director of "Revolt-center," under travel restrictions for "foreign agent" evasion charges. ASTRA reports "veterans of the SVO and public figures" held an action at the "Revolt-center" building in Syktyvkar, displaying "Z" letters and the word "traitors." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Novoseklovske Direction (RUF Map): RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map displaying military movements and territorial control. Рыбарь posts a message about "База — 52ой выпуск", likely an operational summary or analysis. Рыбарь also shared a photo message "«Коалиция желающих» готовится", which appears to be a propaganda image. Рыбарь posts "Срыв учета", potentially referring to disruption of UAF personnel accounting. Rybar posts on "PAS Catastrophe" (Moldova). Рыбарь posts an immediate assessment regarding European "freedom." Rybar shares an illustrative graphic with "British missiles guarding the Ukrainian sky." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zakarpattia Oblast: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was beaten to death during mobilization efforts in Zakarpattia. This is currently an unverified claim, but if true, could escalate diplomatic tensions. Photos show children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast being transported to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast. RBC-Україна reports Ukraine's MFA reacted to Hungary's claims about a "forcibly mobilized Hungarian." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Tula Oblast, Russian Federation: Residents report a large number of explosions. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast due to UAV attack. "Два майора" reports one injured, 13 drones shot down over Tula Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a loud morning near the Tula Instrument Design Bureau. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. ASTRA reports 4 defense enterprises were attacked in Tula Oblast overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a public safety advisory regarding "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, claiming a massive strike is imminent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Air Force Alert: UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. UAF Air Force reports a UAV on northern Kyiv Oblast moving southwest, and a UAV threat in Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Odesa Oblast from Black Sea. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV in Brahin, Belarus, heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down. RBC-Ukraine confirms 44/79 drones shot down, 16 lost. Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. UAF Air Force reports termination of the ballistic missile threat. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. UAF General Staff reports 44 strike UAVs shot down. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RBC-Ukraine reports on the development of SAMs against "Kinzhal" and "Zircon" missiles. RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukraine is discussing additional SAMP/T systems, highlighting efforts to strengthen air defense. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs are moving southwest in northern Kyiv Oblast, a threat in Zhytomyr Oblast, and UAV threat to Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Verolyubovka): RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Video provided by TASS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone reportedly attacked the Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, which manufactures MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-29K/KUB, and MiG-29M/M2 fighters. Video shows a fiery explosion. ASTRA shares photo message about the UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. ASTRA confirms attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, wall of compressor station collapsed. Video from BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows apparent drone impact. Новости Москвы reports 10,000 tick bites in Moscow region since the season began. UAF General Staff confirms striking an aviation plant and a missile production enterprise for air defense systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Unidentified "Ruslan" cargo plane seen over Kyiv; RUF sources speculate on its purpose. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Leningrad Oblast, Russian Federation (Pulkovo Airport): Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ASTRA confirms temporary suspension for 08:45 to 09:45 MSK. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): TASS reports the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung suggests Ukraine has two ways to avoid complete defeat, both involving some form of retreat. Север.Реалии reports BBC confirmed 118,000 Russian deaths and 523 foreign deaths in Ukraine. Russia's total confirmed deaths exceed 118,000. Russian Football Club "Orenburg" to replace Moscow "Torpedo" in Premier League. Sever.Realii reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense may send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, indicating significant material loss or maintenance challenges. WarGonzo shares video claiming China conducted an amphibious landing drill on Taiwan. A study reports 34% of Russian residents could not buy medicines in 2024. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia is considering scrapping its only aircraft carrier, the "Admiral Kuznetsov." STERNENKO reports that Russia intends to scrap its only aircraft carrier. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russian Social Fund reportedly experiencing a "large-scale diversion," impacting state prestige. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Residential Areas): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared aerial footage of damaged residential buildings, suggesting recent combat or strikes in urban areas. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports extensive damage in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) from January 2025. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (General Losses): UAF General Staff reports a total of 1040 Russian personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF losses. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" RUF personnel. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports that a Russian propagandist confirmed the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, in addition to Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Mikhail Gudkov, as a result of a strike on the 155th Brigade's headquarters. Басурин о главном reports 19-year-old Artem Melnik liquidated on the front, framing him as a "meme" from 2014. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, Head of Staff, Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF liquidated the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. RBC-Україна reports the SBU Colonel killed in Kyiv was involved in liquidating "Motorola" and the Kursk offensive. SBU Colonel Voronich, killed in Kyiv, was reportedly involved in operations in Kursk Oblast and the assassination of "Motorola". CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Video shows liquidation of a naked "заробітчанина" (migrant worker) by an FPV drone strike. The term "заробітчанина" is used pejoratively by RUF, implying a non-combatant status, but the video clearly depicts a uniformed soldier being targeted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of successfully "demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad shares drone footage from Donbas operations, showing destruction of RUF armored vehicles and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Fiber Optic Cables): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photo messages titled "UAF Fiber Optics," showing product labels for fiber optic cables. This is likely intelligence on UAF communication infrastructure. STERNENKO highlights the importance of fiber optic drones for the front, suggesting UAF interest in this technology. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kazakhstan: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a video of an individual walking in Kazakhstan with anti-Putin graffiti, indicating anti-RUF sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation: Глеб Никитин shares photos of city landscaping and monuments, indicating efforts to showcase normalcy. Глеб Никитин shares photos of "Olenya Luna" (Deer Moon) over Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin, again unrelated to military operations but promoting normalcy. Alex Parker Returns reports ban on migrant workers in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast was lifted due to labor shortages in public catering, hotels, taxis, and cleaning. This is an economic factor impacting workforce. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Metro: The Office of the Prosecutor General released a video on "Kyiv Metro: tunnel destruction between Demiivska and Lybidska – it's about irresponsibility," which suggests an ongoing internal investigation. Video depicts civilians in a subway station, no military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donbas (General): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Bobrytsia): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast, with photo evidence. Children and caregivers spending day at Sobi Club in Kyiv suburb as part of "People of the Future" project. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): RBC-Ukraine reports searches are being conducted on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military. RBC-Ukraine reports Kubrakov reacted to information about searches at his place. MP Shevchenko received new suspicion regarding fertilizer fraud from Belarus. "Резерв+" app now allows online payment of fines for not updating personal data. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports that schoolchildren from Zaporizhzhia went on a two-day educational trip to Bila Tserkva, and learned about the work of a top pharmaceutical enterprise in Ukraine. Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons met with families of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports suspicion and detention of organizers of a scheme to sell fake medical certificates for $2000. Tax Service of Ukraine states mobilized private entrepreneurs are exempt from taxes and reporting during military service. RBC-Ukraine reports that Foreign Ministry will deal with countries that help Russia. RBC-Ukraine reports on the possible merger of the Ministry of Unity and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry discussing ambassadorial rotations; 20 decrees expected for appointments and dismissals. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Ukrainian police reportedly liquidated a criminal group undermining UAF operations; over 50 searches conducted, likely related to forged mobilization documents. DBR is conducting searches at the head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, Vitaliy Shabunin. Office of Prosecutor General reported suspicion against a Member of Parliament for facilitating privatization of forest land, causing 1.8 million UAH in damages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Zvиздец Мангусту announces a livestream on a Ukrainian channel instead of a written review, indicating current affairs discussion. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Malynivka in Huliaipole direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
France: "Два майора" reports France has resumed production of SCALP cruise missiles after a 15-year break, with accompanying photos of missile components and assembly. French Chief of General Staff states Russia is the most serious and powerful threat to Europe. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast (General): Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. RBC-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Zelenskiy / Official reports morning attack on Odesa Oblast. ASTRA reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. The ASTRA video shows damaged buildings and an injured horse, reinforcing civilian impact. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of a significant explosion, captioned "П...ц ТЦК" (F***ed TCC), further confirming the strike on the Odesa TCC. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa, further reinforcing civilian impact. Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 11. Video shows damaged buildings, injured animals (horses, dog), and rescue personnel in Odesa aftermath. "Два майора" posted an image of an alleged incident at "Privoz" market in Odesa, further highlighting civilian impact. STERNENKO reports a horse was killed and animals injured at a stable in Odesa following Russian strikes, with accompanying videos of the aftermath including damaged buildings and injured animals. RBC-Україна provides tactical analysis of rescue operations in Odesa after Shahed attack. Оперативний ЗСУ provides tactical analysis of firefighting operations in Odesa after Shahed attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sweden: ASTRA reports on a Russian family living in Sweden for 16 years, with two children born there, facing deportation to Tajikistan despite not having citizenship of any country and speaking Swedish better than Russian. This highlights a humanitarian/political issue with potential implications for international relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Turkey/Kurds: Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged victory by Turkey over the PKK, claiming Kurdish fighters have begun disarming in northern Iraq, signaling a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East. Colonelcassad shares photos and videos from Iraq, featuring soldiers around a large bowl-shaped structure and moving down a staircase, likely related to counter-PKK operations or training exercises. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Orlov Oblast, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports the Governor of Orlov Oblast announced damage to a "regional enterprise." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Internal Affairs): Mash na Донбассе reports 7 years in prison for a Zaporizhzhia Oblast resident for hand grenades in refrigerator. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". Court in Chelyabinsk nationalized shares of "Yuzhurazoloto" based on Prosecutor General's claim. Lugansk residents to be without water due to power substation repairs during heatwave. TASS reports a prosecutor is requesting a 10-year prison sentence for Sergey Abramov, a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for financing extremism, indicating ongoing internal crackdown. General SVR reports on internal Russian political dynamics. TASS reports on a court case in Moldova, where prosecutors seek 13 years for a deputy accused of financial violations, likely an effort to highlight a Russian-friendly narrative of opposition suppression. Prosecutor seeks 10 years for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Ilya Timofeev, for large-scale bribery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Mash na Donbasse reports over 60 foreigners in occupied DPR faced administrative and criminal cases for document forgery and drug use. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Two maiors report conviction of an LGBT supporter in St. Petersburg who tried to create a religious community. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine, likely regarding corruption or misconduct. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that all Ukrainian students will be required to undergo military training at firing ranges starting in September. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Diplomacy): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports Valeriy Zaluzhny (former Commander-in-Chief of UAF) published an article for Ukrainian Pravda on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances amid geopolitical instability. Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov gave an interview to Bloomberg, stating that ceasefire must be achieved ASAP, before end of the year, and that RUF wants to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBC-Ukraine announces more meetings between Ukraine and the US at various levels. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports productive meetings with German partners at URC 2025. Trump reacted to the Russian strike on the Kharkiv maternity hospital. RBC-Україна reports Budanov "knows more" about Trump and hinted at the transfer of important weapons to Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Diplomacy): TASS reports Peskov stated Russia continues work on prisoner and body exchanges with Ukraine, and is awaiting proposals from Ukraine on direct negotiations. He also declined to reveal details of Russia's proposals to US Secretary of State Rubio. "War correspondents of Russian Spring" (RUF propaganda) report Peskov's statements regarding Russia waiting for Trump's "important statement" on Monday. Peskov states Brussels pushing Kyiv to continue war until "last Ukrainian". Операция Z reports Putin is confident in increasing advantages and not willing to make concessions under US pressure, according to NYT. Colonelcassad shares photos from a "Union State: Cultural and Information" event, indicating continued diplomatic efforts with Belarus. Kotsnews reports France named Russia its main enemy, confirming previous TASS reporting. TASS reports Lavrov arrived in North Korea on a visit. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Cultural Impact): Zelenskiy / Official shares video tribute to Igor Poklad, Ukrainian composer, focusing on his legacy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Global Diplomacy: UK Defense Minister John Healey states UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to ensure a potential ceasefire as part of a new "Coalition of the Willing" international initiative from the EU. Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy, is expected to visit Kyiv on July 14 for a week. Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz states Ukraine must officially recognize the Volyn massacre and genocide of the Polish people. Kotsnews reports US demands Europe donate Patriot systems to Ukraine. RUF source "Басурин о главном" disseminates British MoD report on F-35 fighter jet issues, indicating RUF intent to amplify issues with Western military systems. Photo message suggests US troops in Europe will be equipped with individual anti-drone systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine discusses reasons behind Trump's apparent shift towards supplying weapons to Ukraine. Trump stated there will be new actions towards Russia and Ukraine, without specifics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Medical): Новости Москвы reports doctors in Russian regions have started treating cancer with oak bark and chamomile, suggesting potential issues in access to modern medicine or alternative practices gaining traction. A study reports 34% of Russian residents could not buy medicines in 2024. Medical consultation report for a patient in a Russian "Mother and Child" clinic, no military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russian veteran's certificate observed. No military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Personal identification document, likely a passport, observed. No military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Drones): Филолог в засаде announces a "Dronnitsa" meeting on September 6-7, signaling continued focus and development in drone technology within Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Fuel Exports): TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports, including for producers, if necessary, to stabilize the domestic fuel market. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Volunteer Support): Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column for "KatyaValya" line, indicating ongoing civilian support for the front. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. Crimean Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments for SVO participants from Crimea. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message about "If you have..." and a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. Военкор Котенок shares video appealing for support for Russian soldiers, indicating continued reliance on public funding. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan (Internal Affairs): «Зона СВО» shares a video related to the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov by Dagestani Wahhabis in the forest, emphasizing internal security threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk City: Two people injured in a traffic accident on Naberezhnaya. No direct military implications. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Satellite Imagery Analysis: RUF source Rybar shows satellite imagery of Al-Udeid Air Base before and after an alleged Iranian missile attack, showing damage to a main facility. This indicates RUF's access to and use of satellite imagery for BDA. RUF source (Филолог в засаде) shares French OSINT analysis of tactical schemes and photos of defensive lines, suggesting shared intelligence or open-source analysis is being distributed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FPV Drone Precision: RUF source Colonelcassad shares video demonstrating high-precision FPV drone strike directly into a UAF dugout. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian MoD Inspections: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" Group of Forces in the special military operation zone, focusing on combat missions. He also met with Kalashnikov Concern to increase supply of small arms to airborne and assault units. Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" troop grouping, showcasing advanced weaponry and highlighting efforts to enhance capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Norwegian Helsinki Committee: Russian Ministry of Justice added Norwegian Helsinki Committee to list of "undesirable organizations". CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Starovoyt Fatality: Daughter of Starovoyt (likely the individual mentioned in previous report buried in Smolensk) expresses regret her father won't see her become a doctor or his younger daughter finish school, confirming a civilian casualty with possible public impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Ivanivka): RUF source reports another pontoon crossing destroyed by UAF forces over the Vovcha River near Ivanivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Logistics - Northern Sea Route: Maersk container ship completed its first passage through the Northern Sea Route, potentially shortening routes between Asia and Europe, indicating global trade shifts with geopolitical implications. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Russian Federation (Langepas): GUR reports an important gas pipeline for the Russian military-industrial complex (VPC) was destroyed in Langepas due to an explosion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Nature/Wildlife): Two maiors share a video of an alligator hunting a pig, indicating non-military content. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Russia (Residential Areas): Two maiors share a photo of a residential building at twilight, indicating non-military content. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Kharkiv Oblast (Sport/Rehab): Oleg Syniehubov shares photos supporting Olympic sport and creating conditions for veteran rehabilitation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Vasylivka): Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an airstrike on an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF 3rd Separate Tank Brigade's "Crazy Cats" FPV drone operators engaged and destroyed two RUF personnel in a building and multiple vehicles. Also engaged RUF reconnaissance drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
USA (Drone Program): WarGonzo shares photo messages on a US program for "dronification" of the American army. ASTRA reports on the US intent to catch up and surpass Russia and China in drone technology, highlighting an executive order for domestic drone manufacturing and equipping warfighters with American-made drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Foreign Volunteers): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a Colombian volunteer ("Scorpion") stating Ukraine has one of the best armies and that many people want to come to Ukraine to fight but lack funds for tickets, indicating a potential resource for military recruitment if supported. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Education/Language Policy): TASS reports Russia will implement a unified methodology for teaching Russian language and literature in schools, based on the fundamentals of state language policy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Road Accident): A minibus collided with a truck in Kyiv, injuring at least 9 passengers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality. Severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), causing localized damage. Electricity deficit due to heat. Moscow forecasts peak heat of +36°C, which could apply to neighboring areas impacting operations.
Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and strains emergency services. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. Drone footage shows widespread flooding in Lviv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis. Water poisoning crisis has expanded to 372 affected, with 357 children.
Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds.
Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
Kursk Oblast: UAV attack resulted in fires at production facilities of a major agro-holding.
Lipetsk Oblast: UAV threat reported by local governor for Elets and Eletskiy district. UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing fire.
Belgorod Oblast: Proximity to the border with Ukraine is preventing reconstruction efforts in some villages.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage to an agricultural enterprise and fire in Pokrovska Hromada due to UAV strike. Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) experienced heavy rainfall with hail, causing flooding. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lugansk (occupied): Residents will be without water due to repairs of power substations during a heatwave. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Gas Pipeline): Another gas pipeline important for the enemy's military-industrial complex (VPC) was destroyed in Russia, according to Ukrainian sources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF:
- Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Western Ukraine. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. UAF Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. All incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace and a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a successful drone neutralization. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, means engaged to shoot them down. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down out of 79 launched. Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. UAF Air Force reports termination of ballistic missile threat. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down by "Trojka" air defense units in a month. UAF General Staff reports 44 UAVs shot down. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RBC-Ukraine reports on development of SAMs against "Kinzhal" and "Zircon" missiles. UAF General Staff confirms striking an aviation plant and a missile production enterprise for air defense systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF successfully intercepted a Shahed drone with an interceptor drone in Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Ukraine's MFA confirms discussions on additional SAMP/T systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian interceptor drones with AI are adapting to enemy tactics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground advances on critical axes in Donbas, Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, a Strela anti-aircraft missile system, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone targeting and neutralizing an enemy combatant near a damaged building. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade conducting amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications in destroyed buildings. Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing UAF combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "OMEGA-WEST" special forces unit cleared a multi-story building. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky of Sumy region, Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. UAF General Staff provides updated reports on clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares photos of soldiers training, indicating ongoing combat readiness and adaptation. Сили оборони Півдня України shares video of cooperation between artillery and drones from Dnipro Battalion with pilots of RUBPAK 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying an armored vehicle and its crew. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. DeepState shares video of RUF FPV drone operations on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged vehicles. STERNENKO shares a photo message showing a Russian occupant allegedly killed by a drone strike while attempting to steal a washing machine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that all Ukrainian students will be required to undergo military training at firing ranges starting in September. UAF DSHV demonstrates operational use of Mavic 3 Thermal drones for reconnaissance and targeting, including destruction of an armored vehicle. UAF forces in Kharkiv direction emphasize tactical medicine training for combat effectiveness. UAF General Staff reports on current operational situation as of 16:00Z. Video shows FPV drone strike neutralizing a uniformed soldier in dense foliage, likely UAF action. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF forces destroyed another pontoon crossing over the Vovcha River near Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF successfully engaged a RUF buggy on the Lyman direction using a fiber-optic drone. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Оперативний ЗСУ reports an airstrike on an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Ukrainian soldier neutralized an enemy in hand-to-hand combat, indicating high combat readiness and individual valor. CONFIDENCE: LOW. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports UAF 3rd Separate Tank Brigade's "Crazy Cats" FPV drone operators engaged and destroyed two RUF personnel in a building and multiple vehicles. Also engaged RUF reconnaissance drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Colombian volunteer ("Scorpion") from 3rd Battalion of Special Purpose Forces, 92nd Brigade, discussing combat experience and importance of artillery and drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a destroyed Ukrainian soldier, potentially for memorialization or propaganda purposes by UAF units such as 'Скіфські Грифони' (Scythian Griffins). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting, and casualty management in Kyiv (28 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks. STERNENKO reports 40.1 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video explaining how "wanted" persons are legally pursued in Ukraine, including references to articles of the Criminal Code and the Code of Ukraine on Administrative Offenses concerning detention, prosecution, and martial law, likely a public information campaign. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military, possibly for improving logistical or personnel management. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photos of a meeting with families of 36th Separate Marine Brigade soldiers on POW/MIA issues. STERNENKO reports 41 million out of 50 million UAH collected for anti-thermal cloaks. Ukrainian children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast sent to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast. Children and caregivers of "People of the Future" project spend day at Sobi Club near Kyiv. Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren embarked on an educational trip, highlighting continued efforts for civilian well-being and education despite conflict. The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons met with families of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on soldiers missing near Pobieda, demonstrating ongoing support for families of service members. Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports suspicion and detention of organizers of a scheme to sell fake medical certificates for $2000. Tax Service of Ukraine states mobilized private entrepreneurs are exempt from taxes and reporting during military service. STERNENKO reports 42 million UAH collected for anti-thermal cloaks (progressing towards 50 million target). UAF Coordination Staff met with families of the 21st Separate Public Order Protection Brigade of the National Guard, addressing POW issues. Oleg Syniehubov reports on supporting Olympic sport and veteran rehabilitation in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. Zelenskyy met with Bulgarian PM, EU Commission President, and Polish Prime Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. Олександр Вілкул shares photos from a meeting, captioning "RECONSTRUCT BETTER THAN IT WAS", indicating focus on recovery and rebuilding. RBC-Ukraine reports the European Commission wants to propose a floating price cap mechanism on Russian oil. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statements on being disappointed with Russia, and that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares video of Giorgia Meloni at a conference, discussing increased pressure on Moscow because Italians and Europeans are tired of the war. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Valeriy Zaluzhny's article on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances. The "Rerezerv+" app now allows online payment of fines with a 50% discount. RBC-Ukraine reports that Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level visits and diplomatic support. Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz states Ukraine must officially recognize the Volyn massacre and genocide of the Polish people. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports productive meetings with German partners at URC 2025. RBC-Україна reports Ukraine's MFA reacted to Hungary's claims about a "forcibly mobilized Hungarian." RBC-Україна reports that the NBU lowered the exchange rates of USD and EUR for the next week, suggesting economic stability efforts. Zaporizhzhia OVA actively participating in "URC2025" for Ukraine's recovery, emphasizing specific needs of frontline regions in defense, medicine, energy, business, science, and education. Budanov stated ceasefire could be declared in coming months. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry discussing ambassadorial rotations; 20 decrees expected for appointments and dismissals. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF leadership denied an alleged UN report from 2022 accusing Russia of striking the Olenivka detention center. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, honored the memory of Artem Kostyra, a hero rescuer. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF:
- Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. RUF MoD reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region, and 19 over Bryansk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports RUF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise in Pokrovska Hromada. RUF forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy attack UAVs on Odesa. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC in Odesa. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. ТАСС reports that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. MoD Russia reiterates 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons between July 5-11. Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant, producer of artillery shells. Colonelcassad shows video claiming "Odessa residents are objectively monitoring the arrival of Russian kamikaze drones of the Geran type." TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. ASTRA reports 4 defense enterprises were attacked in Tula Oblast overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a public safety advisory regarding "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, claiming a massive strike is imminent. New video footage confirms "Geran-2" (Shahed) drone attack in Lutsk overnight, with significant fires and explosions. Rybar posts video showing satellite imagery of Al-Udeid Air Base before and after an alleged Iranian missile attack, showing damage to a main facility. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad shares video demonstrating high-precision FPV drone strike directly into a UAF dugout. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Video shows aerial view of landscape with soldier and explosion, likely a drone strike by RUF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Fighterbomber shares video of OFZAB-500 glide bombs impacting a UAF stronghold. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad shares drone footage from Donbas operations, showing destruction of RUF armored vehicles and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an airstrike on an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. MoD Russia shares video showcasing drones identified as 'SHARK-M', 'FLYEYE', 'ВАЛЬКИРИЯ', 'ДРОН-РЕТРАНСЛЯТОР', 'МАВИК', operating alongside vehicles (cars, T-64BV tank), and equipment (mortar, communication antenna), likely for surveillance and engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast. Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and in the northern part of Vovchansk. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards the Vovchansk area. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, employing "human wave" tactics. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis. "Операция Z" reports Russian forces are advancing towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in the Huliaipole direction. TASS reports UAF was forced to retreat from Zelena Dolyna. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel car(BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims ВКС РФ destroyed two UAF platoons in Dnipropetrovsk direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Операция Z confirms the liberation of Zelena Dolyna. MoD Russia reports Zelenaya Dolina (DPR) and Sobolevka (Kharkiv region) were liberated by Zapad Group of Forces. "Arcangel Spetsnaza" claims battles for Kamenskoye are over. RUF claims advance towards Konstantinovka, taking positions in Dzerzhinsk. Kotsnews shares videos showing Russian soldiers describing operations to take Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, reporting on encountered enemy equipment and successful infiltration. MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike. Video from Старше Эдды confirms the claimed capture of Zelena Dolyna. New RUF map indicates continued operations in Chasiv Yar direction. New photo message from RUF source details "Sumy - Miropolye" direction. New RUF map details "Kupyansk - Manuylivka" direction. Video shows aerial reconnaissance footage of a military vehicle moving on a dirt road, with a plume of smoke, possibly an impact or disturbance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source (Сливочный каприз) reports on operations in Kamenskoye. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source (Воин DV) alleges "DeepState" maps caused problems for UAF units in "gray zones," indicating RUF is monitoring and attempting to leverage OSINT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian forces, specifically 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of 144th Motorized Rifle Division, captured Zelena Dolyna. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed "Aidar" militants (prohibited in RF) in Malievka, South Donetsk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Воин DV shares a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier who recounts being part of a military operation near a farm, experiencing shelling, and eventually being captured by the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad shares video detailing the capture of Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast by Russian forces, showing perspectives from inside the vehicles and on the ground. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options. ASTRA reports that only just over 70 war participants have been demobilized in the past year. "Два майора" is seen appealing for donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of humanitarian aid delivery by Russian forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a military award ceremony for "For the Assault" sign, acknowledging battlefield valor and possibly boosting morale/recruitment. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares images showing two drones and a QR code with a shield, captioned "From the volunteers 2.0," indicating continued reliance on and promotion of volunteer support for tactical equipment. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims number of Ukrainian deserters exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and emphasizes forced mobilization in Ukraine (RUF propaganda). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a mobilized individual was released after their publication, possibly highlighting public pressure on mobilization issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo of a woman in a military uniform, implying a propaganda piece with the caption "Zaluzhny is begging the US for expired missiles," indicating efforts to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies. TASS reports guardians of fallen SVO fighters will receive social support, draft law to be submitted to State Duma. "Верстка" (Russian publication) reports that only 12% of detained Russian criminals are willing to go to the front. This suggests challenges in penal recruitment. Филолог в засаде announced a "Dronnitsa" meeting, indicating continued focus on drone development and innovation within Russia. TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports. Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. Crimean Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments for SVO participants from Crimea. A photo message from Alex Parker Returns appears to depict a social media post with text regarding "If you have..." and includes an image of a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. A video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники appears to show an interrogator threatening a serviceman with deployment to assault, indicating potential coercive mobilization tactics. Военкор Котенок reports a nationwide payment system failure, impacting military procurement of drones. TASS reports Russian forces have begun using dry blood plasma for primary medical aid at the front lines. Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" unit, focusing on combat tasks and showcasing military equipment and drones. Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" Group of Forces, focusing on combat missions and increasing small arms supply. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Sales of a new Huawei tablet have begun in Russia, promoting a sense of normalcy and technological availability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Военкор Котенок shares video appealing for support for Russian soldiers, indicating continued reliance on public funding. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 details conditions under which debt cancellation is provided for SVO participants killed in action. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Два майора shares photos illustrating "A Soldier's Routine," showing Russian military personnel in various tactical and logistical activities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. TASS reports an individual wanted for trading personal data of Russians has been extradited from Indonesia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Voronezh official, Gennady Shvyrkov, was detained for fraud against "SVO" fighters. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. Полиция Хабаровского края reports an award to a police captain for assisting a sick man, aimed at showcasing positive internal actions. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer, confirming ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Colonelcassad shares a video message claiming the detention of two Ukrainian special services agents who were carrying out intelligence and subversive activities in Bryansk and neighboring regions, further confirming RUF counter-intelligence operations. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. ASTRA reports the Prosecutor General's Office wants to recover nearly 1 billion rubles from the organizers of defensive structures on the Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. Video from Alex Parker Returns shows a physical altercation in a store in North Ossetia, alleged to be a Dagestani man beaten for wearing shorts, potentially indicative of inter-ethnic tensions within Russia. TASS reports Russia extradited a person accused of violence against a 12-year-old girl to Latvia. «Зона СВО» shares a video related to the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov by Dagestani Wahhabis in the forest, emphasizing internal security threats. Two people injured in a traffic accident on Naberezhnaya, Donetsk. Colonelcassad spreads a video claiming to show "man-hunters" in Kovel (Ukraine) forcibly mobilizing individuals, reinforcing RUF narrative of forced mobilization. Head of Magaramkent district utilities arrested in Dagestan following mass water poisoning. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russian Ministry of Justice added Norwegian Helsinki Committee to list of "undesirable organizations". CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Daughter of Starovoyt (likely the individual mentioned in previous report buried in Smolensk) expresses regret her father won't see her become a doctor or his younger daughter finish school, confirming a civilian casualty with possible public impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Mash na Donbasse reports over 60 foreigners in occupied DPR faced administrative and criminal cases for document forgery and drug use. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Two maiors report conviction of an LGBT supporter in St. Petersburg who tried to create a religious community. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a Russian official's mistress threatened her ex-husband with deployment to the "SVO." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.4. Recent Developments (New messages since previous report)

Bryansk Oblast: New video messages from AV БогомаZ showing public agricultural events ("Bryansk Field Day") are being used to project normalcy and highlight economic development in the region. These videos depict officials (including the Governor) and civilians at outdoor ceremonies with agricultural machinery, suggesting a focus on domestic achievements rather than military activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Ukrainian interceptor drone successfully destroyed a Russian-Iranian "Shahed" drone over Odesa. This indicates a significant tactical success for UAF air defense and technological adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast (Oleshky): Mash na Donbasse shares photo messages claiming "first footage from the scene of the Ukrainian Armed Forces airstrike on a multi-story building in Oleshky," depicting damaged civilian infrastructure. This reinforces previous RUF claims of UAF causing civilian casualties and preventing rescue efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka Direction: Военкор Котенок reports officially unconfirmed information about the full liberation of Hrushevske and RF Armed Forces advancing towards Novohatske. This suggests continued RUF ground advances in the Southern Donetsk direction. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Russian Internal Affairs (SBU Colonel Assassination): Rybar, TASS, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterate claims that SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich, assassinated in Kyiv, was involved in the 2016 "Motorola" assassination and 2024 Kursk Oblast operations. This is RUF propaganda used to justify actions and demonize Ukrainian intelligence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian State Language Policy: ASTRA reports Putin signed a decree approving the fundamentals of state language policy. This is a significant internal political development aiming to reinforce national identity and control over language use, particularly relevant to occupied Ukrainian territories. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing summary for July 11, 2025. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): "Сливочный каприз" shared a tactical map for the "Krasnoarmeysk - Novotoretske" direction, indicating continued RUF focus and claimed operational movements in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a tactical map for the "Kharkiv direction," showing marked areas and arrows, implying ongoing RUF operational interest or planned movements in this area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Pokrovsk Direction: Операция Z shares video with the caption "Fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Brave' continuously burn tanks and NATO equipment, enemy infantry and artillery," suggesting intense RUF offensive operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Diplomacy/China): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Ukraine's MFA emphasizes continued dialogue with China and calls on Beijing to use its influence on Russia to end the war. This highlights Ukraine's diplomatic efforts to engage non-Western powers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Internal Affairs): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages regarding a "Dialogue between authorities and business" focused on business security during martial law, indicating efforts to maintain economic stability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
US Aid to Ukraine: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that the US Senate Armed Forces Committee approved $500 million in aid to Ukraine as part of the 2026 defense budget. This confirms continued significant financial support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Traffic Police): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming "Police are massively stopping trucks near Moscow for inspection." This could indicate heightened security measures or internal control. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Ukraine (Water Purification): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports that communities in Nikopol and Synelnykivskyi districts will receive 25 modern water purification stations from the Czech government, valued at $6.75 million. This indicates critical humanitarian and infrastructure support for affected regions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs - DBR): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a large-scale scheme of tax evasion and electronics smuggling was exposed, with 26 searches conducted. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the DBR has informed Vitaliy Shabunin (head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center) of suspicion regarding military service evasion and fraud. This indicates ongoing internal anti-corruption efforts within Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Konstantinovka Direction (Logistics): Филолог в засаде makes an appeal for donations to purchase a "буханка" (UAZ-452 van) for an artillery unit operating in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating reliance on volunteer support for logistical needs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad provides an update on the situation in the Southern Donetsk direction. No specific details provided, but indicates continued combat. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Russian Air Defense Propaganda: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with the caption "For us, air defense has become the norm of life..." likely a RUF propaganda piece attempting to normalize drone attacks and portray resilience against Ukrainian strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones. This capability extends with new strike UAV groups moving towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, and now Odesa. RUF is capable of deep strikes on aviation plants (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant in Taganrog) and military production facilities (Kronstadt UAV production facility, Tula Instrument Design Bureau), and regional enterprises (Orlov Oblast). Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant indicates RUF vulnerability in artillery shell production but also highlights a potential target for UAF deep strikes. Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting. Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains, including "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (155 UAVs shot down over Russia). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus. Sustained domestic defense industrial output. Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization. Developing homemade UGVs. Adapting with mobile drone launch platforms. Demonstrated capability for establishing wireless communication links in operational areas. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest an adapting approach to vehicle survivability. MoD Russia is demonstrating capability for rapid and secure communication deployment to forward assault detachments, enhancing tactical C2 and coordination. RUF demonstrates capability to destroy enemy UAV launch positions using TOS-1A Solntsepyok. ТАСС reports that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week, demonstrating continued capability for high-value precision strikes. RUF capabilities for ground operations in Lyman direction confirmed by video showing artillery strikes and infantry movement. RUF capabilities for ground operations in Sumy Oblast are evident from claimed capture of Bessalovka. WarGonzo's video claiming China's amphibious landing drill demonstrates RUF's interest in and propagation of information on other military powers' capabilities, which could be analyzed for potential emulation or strategic alignment. MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification, showcasing its capabilities. A video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike, indicating RUF's continued capability for destructive strikes. "Два майора" demonstrates RUF's drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities in the Kupyansk direction. RUF has the capability to use dry blood plasma for first aid on the front lines, indicating efforts to improve medical support. RUF has capabilities for high-precision FPV drone strikes on dugouts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF demonstrated capability to track and target military vehicles with aerial assets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF Defense Minister's inspections and focus on increasing small arms supply indicate commitment to enhancing ground combat capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF has the capability to destroy pontoon crossings, as seen near Ivanivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF has satellite imagery access for BDA. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is capable of destroying gas pipelines critical for military-industrial complexes, potentially through internal sabotage or deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is employing glide bombs (OFZAB-500) for stronghold engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is capable of destroying enemy crossings, as seen in occupied Vasylivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is capable of conducting aviation strikes on urban areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personal, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure and medical facilities confirms this. The new UAV groups reinforce intent to apply air pressure across multiple axes and target military-industrial infrastructure. Recent strikes on Odesa confirm RUF intent to target additional major Ukrainian cities from the Black Sea, particularly recruitment centers. The confirmed strike on Odesa TCC underscores RUF intent to specifically target Ukrainian military recruitment infrastructure, aiming to disrupt force generation. Strikes on medical facilities and maternity hospitals aim to maximize psychological impact and civilian casualties. Ballistic missile launch towards Vilkove indicates intent to continue long-range precision strikes against coastal targets. Budanov's statement about RUF intent to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reveals a new, aggressive operational objective aimed at territorial penetration. RUF intends to continue to target Ukrainian defense industrial complexes, as evidenced by the warning of an imminent strike on the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant. RUF intends to conduct psychological operations using non-explosive drone impacts to instill fear. RUF intends to destroy critical logistical and military infrastructure, such as pontoon crossings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use airpower to isolate and destroy UAF positions, as seen in the Malievka area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Degrade RUF Military-Industrial Complex (asymmetric/reciprocal): UAF drone attacks in Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow Oblasts, and Beriev Aviation Plant indicate UAF intent to strike Russian military-industrial targets and supporting infrastructure as reciprocal action.
- Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains & Breakthroughs: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border, and Kherson direction. They will attempt incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs. Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics. Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify.
- Consolidation and Probing in Border Regions: RUF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka) and Kharkiv region (Sobolevka). Concurrently, they will conduct probing attacks in new directions, such as attempting to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to stretch UAF defenses.
- Intensified Information Operations and Internal Focus: RUF will escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Promote narratives of Russian military heroism and inevitable victory. Exploit any perceived shifts in Western support (Trump's comments). RUF will continue to reinforce public narratives of "goodness" and "heroism" within their military and civilian structures. Lavrov's statement about Europe trying to "raise history for war with Russia" clearly signals intent to shape international discourse and portray Russia as a victim or defensive actor. RUF intends to amplify narratives of Ukrainian desertion and forced mobilization to degrade Ukrainian morale and international support. RUF intends to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies (e.g., "Zaluzhny is begging for expired missiles"). RUF will continue to reinforce narratives of Russian heroism and civilian support for the war, as seen with "Bryansk Field Day". RUF intends to promote its internal counter-intelligence successes. Peskov's statements on unacceptable foreign troop deployment near Russia's borders indicate an intent to project a strong defensive posture and deter further Western military aid or intervention. RUF intends to use low willingness of criminals to join the front to portray Ukraine as facing severe manpower issues, thus undermining morale. RUF propaganda adapts to highlight perceived lack of enthusiasm among detained criminals to join the front, implying Ukrainian manpower crisis. RUF propaganda adapts to counter narratives of US air defense effectiveness, questioning the S-400's performance. RUF propaganda adapts to highlight civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalisation, possibly undermining the perceived threat of ongoing aerial attacks. TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk, likely intended to support a narrative of Ukrainian perfidy and targeting civilians. Peskov's statement that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian" indicates an intent to portray Ukraine as a puppet and prolonging the war unnecessarily. RUF intends to highlight political statements that align with their narrative, such as Viktor Orban's comments on Hungary's non-involvement. RUF intends to use images from Odesa to show perceived "objective control" by residents of drone strikes, which is a propaganda attempt to legitimize their attacks. RUF intends to use symbolic gestures like the painting from Belgorod to reinforce narratives of resilience and victory. RUF will continue to portray internal Ukrainian situations, such as civilian interactions at markets, in a way that suggests disarray or hardship, though the specific intent of the "Privoz" market image is unclear. RUF will use information from international sources like NYT to bolster its narrative of strength and resolve, indicating an intent to influence global perception of its standing vis-à-vis the US. RUF will use civilian-oriented information from Russia, such as tick bites in Moscow region, to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. RUF will use internal corruption cases to showcase its anti-corruption efforts and reinforce a narrative of strong governance. RUF will use claims of UAF attempting to steal washing machines as propaganda to dehumanize Ukrainian soldiers and justify their actions. RUF propaganda seeks to exploit existing historical grievances to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies, as evidenced by the call for Ukraine to recognize the Volyn massacre. RUF intends to use internal Russian social tensions (e.g., ethnic clashes) to divert attention from the conflict or to portray internal challenges as managed. The message from Alex Parker Returns (If you have...) likely indicates an intent to recruit volunteers or solicit donations for the military, leveraging patriotic sentiment. RUF will continue to highlight internal social support measures for military personnel and their families to boost morale and commitment. RUF milbloggers will attempt to frame coercive mobilization tactics as legitimate or necessary. RUF intends to leverage the image of the Russian boy discharged from the hospital in Sheremetyevo to project care and stability in Russia. RUF will exploit statements about US pressure on Europe to donate Patriot systems to create an impression of allied disunity. RUF will emphasize historical events related to internal security threats (e.g., Dagestani Wahhabis) to reinforce a narrative of strong internal governance and counter-terrorism. RUF intends to amplify issues in Western military equipment (e.g., F-35 issues) to undermine confidence in Western support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use routine civilian incidents (e.g., traffic accidents) in occupied territories to project normalcy and divert attention from military operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to leverage claims of SBU Colonel's involvement in "Motorola" assassination and Kursk offensive to further demonize Ukrainian intelligence and justify its actions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to propagate a narrative of "liquidation" of Ukrainian personnel, even if using pejorative terms like "naked migrant worker," to demoralize UAF and project dominance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to demonstrate strong internal governance by prosecuting officials involved in corruption, as evidenced by the arrest in Dagestan and the case against Timofeev. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to demonstrate its commitment to counter-extremism and internal security by listing organizations as "undesirable." CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use civilian casualties, even those without direct military connection, to portray Ukraine as indiscriminate in its actions or to elicit sympathy for Russian citizens. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use agricultural production figures (e.g., potato production in Bryansk) to project economic resilience and normalcy, deflecting from the ongoing conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to monitor and leverage Ukrainian OSINT to their advantage, particularly DeepState maps. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF will use information about significant trade route shifts (Northern Sea Route) to project its geopolitical influence and highlight global economic reconfigurations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to counter perceived US influence in former Soviet areas, as seen with Zangezur corridor. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to show their military as well-equipped and effective. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to emphasize the human cost of Ukrainian actions (Oleshky airstrike). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use educational/language policy to reinforce national identity and control over occupied territories. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to project its drone capabilities through promotion of its own initiatives and analyses of US programs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to promote stories about "good soldiers" to boost morale and support, as exemplified by the "Soldier's Routine" photo series. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to leverage social media and other platforms to conduct information operations and recruit, as seen by their drone showcases. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk) and Kharkiv regions (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), aiming for incremental territorial gains through mass and disregard for casualties. The commitment of reserves (e.g., 83rd AAB) indicates an intent to push for tactical breakthroughs in these areas. Probing attacks and attempts to consolidate gains in Sumy Oblast will continue. RUF will maintain high-tempo, attritional ground assaults in the Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk) and Kharkiv regions (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), aiming for incremental territorial gains through mass and disregard for casualties. The commitment of reserves (e.g., 83rd AAB) indicates an intent to push for tactical breakthroughs in these areas. Probing attacks and attempts to consolidate gains in Sumy Oblast will continue.
- Air Pressure: Maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Odesa to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia, including the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, and further targeting of gas pipelines or similar critical infrastructure inside Russia as UAF reciprocal actions.
- Targeting Recruitment: Explicitly target Ukrainian military recruitment and force generation infrastructure, as evidenced by the Odesa TCC strike.
Consolidation and Probing in Border Regions: RUF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka) and Kharkiv region (Sobolevka). Concurrently, they will conduct probing attacks in new directions, such as attempting to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to stretch UAF defenses.
Intensified Information Operations and Internal Focus: RUF will escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. They will exploit Western disunity and internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization, corruption). Concurrently, RUF will focus on internal security operations, counter-intelligence, and propaganda to maintain domestic stability and support for the conflict. They will highlight successes in internal investigations (e.g., Dagestan, Timofeev).

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

RUF:
- Increased complexity of aerial attacks: The prolonged (10-11 hours) multi-vector, multi-domain attack on Kyiv indicates a new level of sophistication and endurance in RUF aerial operations, likely aimed at exhausting UAF air defense systems and personnel.
- Targeting of Recruitment Centers: The confirmed direct strike on the Odesa TCC signals a tactical shift to specifically target Ukrainian military recruitment and force generation infrastructure.
- Mobile Drone Launch Platforms: Reported use of RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches indicates an adaptation for increased mobility and survivability of launch teams.
- Deep Penetration Intent: Budanov's statement regarding RUF intent to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests an expanded operational objective beyond the current main axes, potentially aiming to open new fronts or threaten key industrial centers.
- Enhanced Tactical C2: MoD Russia's drills for deploying secure communication means (R-187-P1 'Azart') with assault detachments indicate efforts to improve tactical command and control for ground operations.
- Improved Combat Casualty Care: Introduction of dry blood plasma for primary medical aid at the front lines suggests efforts to reduce combat fatalities and improve medical support.
- Strategic Use of Satellite Imagery: Rybar's use of satellite imagery for BDA indicates RUF is leveraging advanced ISR capabilities for operational assessment and propaganda.
- High-Precision FPV Drone Strikes: Demonstrated ability to precisely target dugouts and specific vehicles with FPV drones indicates refinement of these tactical assets.
UAF:
- AI-powered Interceptor Drones: Reported use of AI-powered interceptor drones to adapt to enemy tactics suggests a significant technological adaptation in air defense, potentially improving efficiency and reducing reliance on costly missiles. The successful interception of a Shahed drone by a Ukrainian interceptor drone over Odesa is a direct demonstration of this advanced capability, indicating successful development and deployment of counter-UAS systems with potential AI integration.
- Continued Deep Strikes: UAF's confirmed strikes on Russian aviation and missile production facilities demonstrate continued commitment to asymmetric warfare against RUF military-industrial capabilities.
- Targeted Counter-Mobility Operations: Destruction of pontoon crossings and enemy crossings (e.g., near Ivanivka, Vasylivka) highlights effective UAF counter-mobility operations aimed at disrupting RUF logistics and advances.
- Focus on Tactical Medicine: Emphasis on tactical medicine training for combat effectiveness in Kharkiv direction indicates an adaptation to reduce combat losses and improve soldier survivability.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

RUF:
- Air-launched Munitions: Sustained production and deployment of FAB/KAB glide bombs and Shahed drones, evidenced by large-scale attacks. New Su-34 deliveries indicate continued airframe production/delivery.
- Ground Munitions: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant (artillery shell producer) suggests a potential vulnerability in RUF artillery shell production, but the extent of impact is unknown. However, sustained artillery barrages on frontlines indicate robust current supply.
- Internal Supply Chains: Nationwide payment system failure impacting military procurement of drones suggests potential vulnerabilities in internal financial logistics for military supplies. Efforts to ban gasoline exports might indicate domestic fuel market issues which could impact military logistics if not managed.
- Force Generation: Electronic conscription registry is fully operational, aiming to streamline mobilization. Reliance on public donations for tactical equipment (drones, vehicles) persists, indicating gaps in state supply. Low willingness of detained criminals to fight suggests challenges in penal recruitment.
- Corruption: Ongoing high-profile corruption cases within the MOD (Timofeev, Belgorod fortifications) highlight systemic issues that may impact logistical efficiency and resource allocation.
UAF:
- Air Defense Munitions: High rate of air defense interceptor expenditure in large-scale RUF attacks poses a significant sustainment challenge. Urgent need for accelerated delivery of Western SAMs and munitions.
- Equipment Procurement: Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks and new e-points for drone/EW procurement indicate ongoing efforts to bridge equipment gaps through civilian and volunteer support. UAF is advocating for fiber optic drones, suggesting a focus on secure and potentially longer-range drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Medical Logistics: Efforts to strengthen thermal autonomy of city hospitals (Kryvyi Rih) indicate proactive measures for civilian medical sustainment.
- Corruption: New charges for supplying low-quality clothing and suspicion against a lieutenant colonel for causing state budget damages highlight ongoing challenges with corruption impacting UAF procurement and potentially affecting soldier readiness. Investigation into fake medical certificates indicates efforts to combat evasion.
- Personnel Support: Continued support for veterans and POW/MIA families, including housing compensation for defenders, indicates sustained social welfare efforts. The provision of water purification stations by the Czech Republic to Nikopol and Synelnykivskyi districts demonstrates crucial international humanitarian logistical support, directly impacting civilian well-being in conflict-affected areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

RUF:
- Strategic C2: Appears centralized and capable of coordinating complex, multi-domain deep strikes. Putin's frequent calls with Belgorod governor suggest direct involvement in crisis management near the border. Lavrov's visit to North Korea and Peskov's statements indicate coordinated diplomatic messaging.
- Operational C2: Continued, high-tempo ground assaults across multiple axes (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk) suggest effective coordination of operational groups. Inspection by Defense Minister Belousov of the "Dnepr" Group indicates high-level oversight and intent to improve C2 and combat tasks.
- Tactical C2: New drills for secure communication deployment to assault detachments indicate an effort to enhance tactical C2 effectiveness and coordination on the front lines, addressing potential vulnerabilities.
- Personnel Losses: The liquidation of high-ranking RUF officers (Commander and Chief of Staff of 155th Marine Brigade, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Navy) due to UAF strikes could lead to localized C2 disruption and loss of experienced leadership.
UAF:
- Strategic C2: Zelensky's high-level diplomatic engagements and emphasis on coalition building indicate strong strategic C2, focused on securing international support and aid. UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, maintaining transparency and control.
- Operational C2: Effective coordination of air defense responses to large-scale, complex RUF attacks across multiple oblasts indicates robust operational C2. Successful counter-offensives and repelling assaults on key axes demonstrate adaptive operational C2.
- Internal Controls: Ongoing investigations by the Office of the Prosecutor General into corruption and fraud cases within the military indicate functioning internal control mechanisms, aiming to improve accountability and efficiency. The "Rerezerv+" app situation and DBR searches might temporarily impact C2 efficiency, but the transparency around these issues suggests a commitment to addressing them. The DBR informing Vitaliy Shabunin of suspicion for military service evasion and fraud, as reported by STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ, highlights ongoing efforts to address internal military discipline and combat corruption, which contributes to maintaining overall C2 effectiveness and public trust. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness

Posture: UAF maintains a predominantly defensive posture across most axes, actively repelling RUF ground assaults and conducting extensive air defense operations. Offensive actions are limited to localized counter-attacks, deep strikes into Russia, and targeted interdiction/attrition operations against RUF logistics and high-value assets.
Readiness:
- Air Defense: High state of readiness, demonstrating significant capability to intercept large volumes of RUF aerial threats (178/397 drones, 18 missiles shot down over Kyiv). Adaptation with AI-powered interceptor drones indicates continuous improvement. The successful interception of a Shahed drone by a Ukrainian interceptor drone over Odesa further exemplifies the high readiness and advanced capabilities of UAF air defense systems and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: Maintaining combat effectiveness despite attritional pressure in Donbas (Chasiv Yar) and Kharkiv. Emphasis on tactical medicine training suggests a focus on soldier preservation. Regular training activities (e.g., amphibious assault, DSHV exercises) indicate ongoing combat readiness.
- Technological Integration: Active efforts to procure and integrate new EW and drone assets (e-points, anti-thermal cloaks) demonstrate a commitment to technological superiority on the battlefield. Emphasis on fiber optic drones indicates ongoing innovation in drone technology. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Logistics & Personnel Management: Internal support structures for veterans and families of POW/MIA are functioning, contributing to morale and welfare. The "Rerezerv+" app and military training for students indicate efforts to optimize personnel management and force generation for sustained conflict. Proactive measures to strengthen thermal autonomy in city hospitals show preparedness for civilian sustainment.
- Challenges: Air defense munition expenditure during protracted attacks remains a critical concern, potentially impacting readiness for future large-scale strikes. Combat exhaustion of frontline units, particularly in areas like Chasiv Yar, is a significant constraint. Ongoing internal investigations into corruption could temporarily affect morale or resource allocation, though transparency in addressing them is key.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks

Successes:
- Air Defense Dominance (Kyiv & Odesa): Achieved a high rate of RUF aerial target interceptions over Kyiv (178/397 drones, 18 missiles), preventing more widespread destruction. The successful interception of a Shahed drone by a Ukrainian interceptor drone over Odesa signifies a significant tactical success and technological advancement in counter-UAS capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Strategic Deep Strikes: Confirmed successful drone strikes on key Russian military-industrial targets (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, missile production enterprise), impacting RUF's ability to produce weapons. Destruction of an important gas pipeline in Langepas is a significant blow to RUF VPC logistics.
- High-Value Target Liquidations: Successfully eliminated multiple high-ranking RUF officers, including the Commander and Chief of Staff of the 155th Marine Brigade, a Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, and other key personnel, disrupting RUF C2.
- Effective Counter-Mobility: Destruction of RUF pontoon crossings (e.g., near Ivanivka) and enemy crossings (e.g., Vasylivka) demonstrates successful interdiction of RUF logistics and operational maneuver.
- Battlefield Attrition: Repelled numerous RUF ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kursk directions, inflicting heavy casualties on RUF personnel and equipment.
- Technological Adaptations: The development of AI-powered interceptor drones showcases innovative tactical adaptations.
- Equipment Destruction: Reported destruction of numerous RUF high-value equipment (e.g., 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system, Buk, Strela).
- International Support: Approval of $500 million in US aid signals continued critical financial support for Ukraine's defense.
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Significant civilian casualties (2 killed, 28 injured in Kyiv; 1 killed, 2 injured in Dnipropetrovsk; 9 killed, 10 injured in Donetsk on July 9; 7 killed, 9 injured in Donetsk on July 10; 9 injured in Kharkiv; 8 injured in Odesa, now 11 injured) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure from protracted RUF aerial attacks remain a critical challenge.
- Territorial Losses: RUF claimed capture of Zelena Dolyna (Donetsk) and Sobolevka (Kharkiv), and advancements in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka), indicating localized territorial setbacks. The unconfirmed reports of Hrushevske liberation and advancement towards Novohatske also indicate potential further tactical setbacks in the Southern Donetsk direction. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- Internal Security Incident: The alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv (if confirmed by UAF) represents a significant security breach and intelligence loss.
- Corruption: Ongoing internal investigations into corruption cases affecting UAF procurement and land privatization (e.g., low-quality clothing, lieutenant colonel, MP, fake medical certificates, tax evasion, electronics smuggling, DBR searches on Shabunin) could impact public trust and military effectiveness.
- Environmental/Humanitarian Disasters: Heavy flooding in Lviv and Lutsk, and hail in Pavlohrad, strained emergency services and impacted movement, diverting resources.
- Civilian Harm from UAF Action (RUF Claimed): Reported UAF airstrike on Oleshky (Kherson Oblast) causing civilian casualties (RUF source) needs verification but represents a potential propaganda vulnerability.

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints

Requirements:
- Air Defense: Urgent and sustained supply of interceptor munitions, particularly for ballistic missile defense. Accelerated delivery and integration of modern SAM systems (Patriot, SAMP/T).
- Counter-UAS/EW: Continued provision of counter-UAS and EW systems to mitigate the pervasive RUF drone threat.
- Long-Range Precision Fires: Sustained flow of Western military aid, especially artillery shells and long-range precision fires (HIMARS/M270, SCALP), for counter-battery and deep strike capabilities.
- Humanitarian Aid & Reconstruction: Continued financial and humanitarian support for reconstruction efforts in damaged civilian areas and for civilian well-being, especially after widespread aerial attacks and natural disasters. The provision of water purification stations is a critical need. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Personnel & Training: Support for foreign volunteers, and effective implementation of military training for students to address manpower requirements.
Constraints:
- Air Defense Munition Expenditure: The high rate of air defense munition expenditure during protracted RUF attacks places a significant strain on stockpiles, creating a vulnerability.
- Combat Exhaustion: Sustained attritional warfare on the frontlines leads to combat exhaustion among UAF units, necessitating regular rotations and sufficient reserves.
- Corruption: Internal corruption cases divert resources and undermine public trust, impacting overall effectiveness and procurement efforts.
- Dual-Use of Resources: Resource allocation for humanitarian/disaster response (Lviv/Lutsk flooding) in addition to combat operations creates a dual burden on limited resources.
- Personnel Management: Challenges in implementing efficient personnel management systems (e.g., "Rerezerv+" app issues, if unresolved) could hinder effective mobilization and deployment.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

RUF:
- Narrative of Ukrainian Weakness: Intensifying efforts to portray UAF as depleted and demoralized, specifically through unverified claims of desertion ("exceeded 230,000") and "forced mobilization" tactics ("man-hunters" in Kovel). Discredits Ukrainian military leadership by claiming Zaluzhny is "begging for expired missiles." Highlights low willingness of detained criminals to fight for Ukraine.
- Justification of Aggression & Demonization of UAF: Amplifying civilian casualties in Russia from UAF attacks (Belgorod, Kursk) to foster public anger and justify aggression, claiming UAF "consciously targets children, adults, and elderly" and "plants mines in money, toys, and sweets." Uses the alleged SBU Colonel assassination to demonize Ukrainian intelligence and justify its actions. Attempts to dehumanize Ukrainian soldiers by claiming they attempt to loot (washing machine incident) or are "naked migrant workers" (FPV video). Uses images of damage in Oleshky (Kherson) to attribute civilian harm to UAF. RUF propaganda is actively disseminating claims that UAF drone attacks are preventing rescue efforts in Oleshky, aiming to portray UAF as inhumane.
- Projection of Russian Strength & Normalcy: Highlighting internal Russian "normalcy" (Bryansk Field Day, new Huawei tablet sales, Moscow Stock Exchange reopening, positive police stories, potato production figures). Showcasing internal anti-corruption efforts (Dagestan arrest, Timofeev case) to project strong governance. Promotes "objective control" videos of drone strikes to legitimize attacks on Ukraine. Emphasizes efforts to improve soldier welfare (dry blood plasma, veteran payments) and military capabilities (Belousov inspections). Promotes unified state language policy to reinforce national identity. RUF milbloggers are showcasing "A Soldier's Routine" to highlight the professionalism and dedication of their forces. New videos from AV БогомаZ showing agricultural festivals in Bryansk Oblast further reinforce the narrative of Russian economic resilience and normalcy, attempting to deflect from ongoing conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's sharing of a video describing air defense as "norm of life" in Russia is a clear propaganda attempt to normalize conflict and project resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Exploitation of Western Disunity: Exploiting Western political statements (Trump's "important statement" on NATO payments, Rubio's remarks) for narrative advantage, claiming Brussels is pushing Kyiv to continue fighting until the "last Ukrainian." Amplifying reports on Western military equipment issues (F-35).
- Sowing Discord between Ukraine and Allies: Leveraging historical grievances (Volyn massacre) to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies, particularly Poland and Hungary.
- Global Geopolitical Positioning: Highlighting Lavrov's visit to North Korea and discussions on Northern Sea Route to demonstrate alternative alliances and global influence.
UAF:
- Highlighting RUF War Crimes: Actively countering RUF disinformation by emphasizing RUF war crimes and civilian casualties (Kharkiv maternity hospital, Odesa TCC strike, general civilian harm from aerial attacks). Zelenskiy's statements explicitly framing RUF as targeting "life" and condemning attacks on medical facilities.
- Showcasing Military Successes: Publicizing UAF military successes (RUF personnel liquidations, equipment destruction, high air defense achievements, interceptor drone capabilities, successful engagements in Kharkiv). Highlighting the importance of new technologies like fiber optic drones. The public announcement of a successful Ukrainian interceptor drone destroying a Shahed over Odesa is a significant counter-propaganda win, demonstrating UAF technological superiority and defensive effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Promoting Resilience & Recovery: Highlighting recovery and rebuilding efforts in damaged areas ("RECONSTRUCT BETTER THAN IT WAS"), and efforts to strengthen thermal autonomy of city hospitals. Supporting Olympic sport and veteran rehabilitation. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration's focus on "Dialogue between authorities and business" to ensure security during martial law projects a strong image of governance and economic stability amidst conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Reforms & Transparency: Publicizing internal reforms and efforts to combat corruption (investigations into procurement fraud, DBR searches, "Rerezerv+" app updates, exposure of tax evasion/electronics smuggling schemes, DBR informing Shabunin of suspicion) to maintain public trust.
- Emphasizing International Support: Promoting international diplomatic support and aid efforts (URC2025, Kellogg visit, SAMP/T discussions, meetings with German partners). Highlighting the willingness of foreign volunteers. The announcement of $500 million in US aid is a clear message of continued international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Czech Republic's provision of water purification stations is a strong positive message of humanitarian support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Countering Russian Narratives: Proactive diplomatic responses to Hungarian and Polish claims (forced mobilization, Volyn massacre). Budanov's statements are used to counter RUF narratives and potentially signal confidence regarding future Western arms transfers.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

Ukraine:
- Resilience and Unity: Civilian morale is likely strained by repeated, widespread aerial attacks, but resilience is evident in recovery and rebuilding efforts, as well as continued public support for the military through fundraising.
- Trust and Accountability: Internal investigations into corruption may impact public trust, but transparency in addressing them (e.g., Prosecutor General's reports, DBR searches on Shabunin, exposure of tax evasion schemes) can mitigate negative effects and reinforce accountability.
- Adaptation: The mandatory military training for students indicates a societal adaptation to prolonged conflict, potentially reinforcing a sense of collective responsibility.
Russia:
- Mixed Signals: Propaganda aims to boost morale and foster national unity through narratives of heroism and social support for SVO participants. The "Soldier's Routine" photo series attempts to normalize and positively portray military life, boosting morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The "Bryansk Field Day" events and associated propaganda messages contribute to projecting a sense of normalcy and prosperity, aiming to maintain domestic support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Underlying Strains: However, reports of low willingness among criminals to fight, internal corruption in the MOD, nationwide payment system failures impacting drone procurement, and potential ethnic tensions (Dagestan, Syberia) suggest underlying societal strains and potential challenges to morale. Allegations of officials' mistresses threatening ex-husbands with SVO deployment could negatively impact public perception and morale regarding the fairness and legitimacy of military service. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Mobilization Pressure: Alleged threats by interrogators to servicemen highlight potential coercive mobilization tactics, which could negatively impact morale and public perception.
- Economic Impacts: Reports of 34% of Russians unable to buy medicines and potential gasoline export bans could lead to domestic economic hardship and affect public sentiment.
- Information Control: The implementation of a unified Russian language teaching methodology and the listing of "undesirable organizations" indicate increasing state control over information and education, aiming to shape public sentiment. The video about police stopping trucks near Moscow for inspection, even if framed humorously, could suggest heightened security and control measures that might impact public freedom or movement, subtly affecting sentiment. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

Ukraine:
- Sustained Western Support: Strong international diplomatic support continues, reinforced by high-level visits (Keith Kellogg, URC2025 meetings with German partners) and ongoing discussions about additional Patriot and SAMP/T systems. The approval of $500 million in US aid by the Senate Armed Forces Committee is a tangible and significant show of sustained Western support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The provision of water purification stations by the Czech Republic is a direct example of concrete international support addressing humanitarian needs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- EU Accession: Zelensky's statements on readiness for EU accession talks signal continued commitment to Western integration.
- "Coalition of the Willing": UK's readiness to send troops for a potential ceasefire, as part of a "Coalition of the Willing," indicates evolving and potentially deeper forms of international support.
- Complex Diplomatic Challenges: Diplomatic friction with Poland regarding the Volyn massacre and with Hungary regarding "forcibly mobilized Hungarians" highlight the complexities of maintaining allied unity amidst historical grievances and internal political pressures. Ukraine's MFA actively addressing Hungarian claims indicates a proactive diplomatic stance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Engagement with Non-Western Powers: Ukraine's continued dialogue with China and appeal for its influence on Russia highlights efforts to broaden international support beyond traditional Western alliances. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia:
- Building Alternative Alliances: Lavrov's visit to North Korea signals continued efforts to build alternative alliances and circumvent Western isolation.
- Propaganda & Deterrence: Russia continues to engage on prisoner and body exchanges with Ukraine, portraying a willingness for dialogue while maintaining a hardline stance. Peskov's statements on unacceptable foreign troop deployment near Russia's borders indicate a strong defensive posture and an intent to deter further Western military aid or intervention.
- Escalating Diplomatic Tensions: Revocation of consent for the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad signals escalating diplomatic tensions with NATO member Poland.
- Global Narrative Shaping: Russia uses international statements (French Chief of Staff naming Russia main threat, Trump's remarks) to shape its narrative on the global stage.
- Houthi Support: Houthi claims of increased compliance from merchant vessels after vessel sinkings in the Red Sea could be viewed by Russia as a successful demonstration of anti-Western asymmetric capabilities, potentially influencing their own strategies.
- China's Role: Russia is propagating information on China's amphibious landing drills, potentially signaling perceived strategic alignment or drawing parallels for its own military operations.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
- Sustained Aerial Pressure (Tier 1 Priority): RUF will continue large-scale, protracted, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting critical infrastructure (energy, military production), military assets (TCCs, PVDs), and population centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on saturating air defenses in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Odesa. This will involve high volumes of Shahed drones, coupled with ballistic and cruise missiles. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia, including the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, and further targeting of gas pipelines or similar critical infrastructure inside Russia as UAF reciprocal actions.
- Attritional Ground Offensives (Tier 2 Priority): RUF will maintain high-tempo, attritional ground assaults in the Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk) and Kharkiv regions (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), aiming for incremental territorial gains through mass and disregard for casualties. The commitment of reserves (e.g., 83rd AAB) indicates an intent to push for tactical breakthroughs in these areas. Probing attacks and attempts to consolidate gains in Sumy Oblast (including Hrushevske and Novohatske, if confirmed) will continue.
- Targeting Recruitment (Tier 3 Priority): Explicitly target Ukrainian military recruitment and force generation infrastructure, as evidenced by the Odesa TCC strike and intensified information operations targeting mobilization.
- Consolidation and Probing in Border Regions: RUF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka) and Kharkiv region (Sobolevka). Concurrently, they will conduct probing attacks in new directions, such as attempting to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to stretch UAF defenses.
- Hybrid Warfare Intensification: RUF will escalate information warfare and propaganda, focusing on demoralizing UAF, undermining international support for Ukraine, and maintaining domestic support for the conflict. This will include amplifying narratives of Ukrainian manpower shortages, corruption, and Western abandonment. Attempts at internal subversion or targeted assassinations are also possible. RUF will continue to use its language policy to consolidate influence in occupied territories.
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
- Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis targeting Kharkiv and Dnipro: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod and Kursk, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves. Simultaneously, a concerted effort to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast could lead to a strategic breakthrough, threatening critical industrial and logistical hubs. This would be coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas to fix UAF forces on that axis.
- Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas with Reserve Commitment: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. This would be supported by overwhelming air power and a disregard for personnel losses ("human wave" tactics).
- Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack.
- Strategic Maritime Blockade: RUF attempts a more robust maritime blockade of Odesa and other Black Sea ports, possibly using naval assets and increased mine-laying, severely impacting Ukraine's economy and international trade.
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
- IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
  - Damage Control & Humanitarian Response: Continue immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lipetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Odesa, and Donetsk Oblast. Prioritize civilian fatalities and injuries, including those trapped under rubble in Oleshky. Focus on humanitarian aid to areas receiving water purification stations.
  - Air Defense & ISR Alert: Maintain high air defense alert for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by RUF UAV groups towards all Ukrainian oblasts, especially Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and Odesa. Prioritize response to any new ballistic missile threat (Sumy, Westward). Task ISR to verify RUF claims of territorial gains (especially Hrushevske and Novohatske) and assess damage to Russian military-industrial targets. Focus on confirming any further RUF ground advances in Sumy Oblast and the impact of the UAF strike on the gas pipeline in Langepas.
  - Information Counter-Offensive: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives of Ukrainian weakness. Proactively highlight RUF war crimes and civilian casualties, especially children. Actively counter RUF narratives celebrating strikes on TCCs and portraying Ukrainian personnel as looters. Counter any RUF claims regarding UAF actions in Oleshky, particularly those alleging UAF interference with rescue efforts. Highlight Ukrainian air defense successes (Odesa interceptor drone).
- SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
  - Air Defense Allocation & Reinforcement: Make critical decisions on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions to protect high-value targets and population centers. Expedite delivery and integration of newly committed Patriot systems. Deploy additional counter-UAS and EW assets to frontline sectors. Prioritize delivery of additional SAMP/T systems.
  - Frontline Defense & Rotation: Continue to repel RUF ground pressure. Commanders on the Kramatorsk and Kharkiv axes should implement contingency plans for the rotation of frontline units to mitigate combat exhaustion. Pre-position engineering assets to counter potential envelopment. Prioritize defense against any RUF push towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Secure and reinforce positions in Sumy Oblast following RUF claims of capture. Reinforce counter-mobility efforts, particularly against crossings.
  - Internal Security & Logistics: Continue investigations into corruption cases and implement reforms to improve supply chain integrity (e.g., tax evasion/smuggling, DBR investigations on Shabunin, fake medical certificates). Support the visit of Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, ensuring security and maximizing diplomatic outcomes. Address the "Rerezerv+" app status. Continue police operations against criminal groups undermining UAF operations. Review and secure UAF fiber optic communication infrastructure.
  - Diplomatic Response: Prepare a nuanced diplomatic response to Polish demands regarding the Volyn massacre, balancing national interests with allied unity. Continue ambassadorial rotations. Continue dialogue with China.
- MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
  - Aid Effectiveness & RUF Adaptation: Monitor the operational impact of new US and EU aid deliveries. Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their own drone/counter-UAV technology developments.
  - Strategic Assessment: Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure. Analyze the implications of the SBU Colonel assassination and other high-value target liquidations on RUF and UAF internal security and C2. Re-evaluate overall RUF intent and capabilities based on Budanov's statement regarding the Dnipropetrovsk advance. Assess the implications of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" disposition on RUF naval power projection. Continue to monitor for any new deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets, particularly gas pipelines, and their impact on RUF VPC. Assess the impact of RUF's new state language policy on internal dynamics and occupied territories. Assess the potential for foreign volunteer recruitment. Assess the implications of internal Russian social events (e.g., "Bryansk Field Day") for RUF public messaging and resource allocation.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
- GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Ukrainian oblasts. Specific impact of UAF drone strikes on Russian military-industrial facilities (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant, Tula Instrument Design Bureau, Kronstadt UAV production facility, Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise," Orsk Mechanical Plant, "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, gas pipeline in Langepas). Capabilities and launch methods for alleged sea-launched drones used in the Odesa attack. Full BDA on the destroyed gas pipeline. Confirmation if the non-explosive Shahed impact in Odesa indicates a new tactic or a failure.
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base. Analyze flight patterns and track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Conduct BDA for precise damage assessment and production impact. Investigate alleged sea-launch platforms and methods. Monitor further developments from the "Dronnitsa" meeting. Conduct forensic analysis on the gas pipeline incident to determine cause and origin of attack.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
- GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense. Specific delivery timelines for new Patriot and SAMP/T systems. How will the newly launched Kyiv drone interception system integrate and impact overall ADM effectiveness and consumption?
- CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements. Monitor the initial effectiveness and challenges of the new Kyiv drone interception system, particularly in light of the successful Odesa interceptor drone.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Territorial Claims:
- GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded, or large-scale desertion figures), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Zelena Dolyna, Mirny and Voskresenka, Novonykolaivka in Sumy, Sobolevka in Kharkiv, Kamenskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Bessalovka in Sumy, Hrushevske and Novohatske). Precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes, claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles, alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination and the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko. Verification of the VDV cadet killing a commander report. Confirmation of the specific impact of the Odesa TCC strike and any civilian casualties/collateral damage related to it. Verification of the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines. Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv. Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight. Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust. Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. Assess the impact of RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and key supply routes near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. Verify the impact of the drone strike shown by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС near Chasiv Yar. Assess the veracity and implications of the Alex Parker Returns photo message (If you have...). Assess any broader implications of the reported interrogation and threat to a serviceman. Verify the extent of the impact of the nationwide payment system failure in Russia on military procurement. Verify the claims of forced mobilization and "man-hunters" in Kovel. Verify impact of F-35 operational issues on Western aid to Ukraine. Verify destruction of the pontoon crossing near Ivanivka. Verify RUF claims regarding the impact of DeepState maps on UAF operations. Verify the extent of damage and casualties from the reported UAF airstrike on Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, and the claims of UAF preventing rescue efforts. Verify the claim of a Ukrainian soldier neutralizing an enemy in hand-to-hand combat. Verify the veracity of the "destroyed Ukrainian soldier" video from Оперативний ЗСУ.
- CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination.
Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry & Demobilization:
- GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry. What are the factors contributing to the extremely low demobilization rate? What are the implications of reported fraud against "SVO" fighters and the impact of public pressure on mobilization issues? What is the impact of the new one-time payments for SVO participants in Crimea on recruitment and retention? What are the broader implications of alleged threats by interrogators to servicemen? What are the implications of over 60 foreigners in occupied DPR facing administrative/criminal cases for document forgery and drug use? What is the specific impact of the report regarding an official's mistress threatening her ex-husband with deployment to the "SVO" on public perception and internal stability?
- CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes. Investigate fraud cases affecting military personnel. Monitor reports of new incentives for military service.
UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
- GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes. What is the overall impact of the "Армія+" survey on military efficiency and morale? What are the implications of the scheme to sell fake medical certificates for mobilization evasion? What is the impact of tax exemptions for mobilized private entrepreneurs on UAF force generation? What is the full impact of the criminal group liquidating, especially on forged mobilization documents? What is the impact of the suspicion against a Member of Parliament for facilitating privatization of forest land?
- CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units. Investigate the scale of fake medical certificate schemes. Monitor ongoing police and DBR investigations related to corruption impacting UAF.
Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
- GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US, UK, German, Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems. What are the specific implications of Trump's statements and potential US policy shifts, particularly regarding the hinted transfer of important weapons? What is the projected timeline for initial deliveries and operational deployment of newly resumed French SCALP missiles to Ukraine, and what is the projected rate of production? What is the impact of the proposed EU floating price cap on Russian oil? What is the full scope and impact of US commitment to "American drone dominance" on future aid and technological transfer? What are the specific conditions or caveats to UK's readiness to send troops to Ukraine for a potential ceasefire? What are the specific demands from the US regarding European Patriot donations? What is the precise allocation and intended use of the approved $500 million in US aid?
- CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment. Monitor international media and diplomatic channels for further details on US policy shifts and aid commitments, including the specifics of the "Coalition of the Willing." Monitor official statements regarding future Ukraine-US meetings.
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
- GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, suppression of dissent, Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports, local political/cultural controversies, and alleged misuse of military assets by high-ranking officials) are diverting significant resources from military operations. What is the full C2 impact of the recent high-level RUF casualties in Kursk and the liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov on the affected units, particularly the 155th Marine Brigade? What is the impact of the FSB operation in Bryansk on UAF drone capabilities and Russian internal security? What are the implications of the humanitarian issue involving a Russian family in Sweden facing deportation to Tajikistan? What are the broader geopolitical implications of Turkey's alleged victory over the PKK for Russian influence in the Middle East and Caucasus? What is the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod? What is the scope and duration of water outages in occupied Lugansk and their impact on local population and RUF operations? What are the broader implications of corruption cases within the Russian MoD (e.g., Timofeev prosecution, Belgorod defense structures) for RUF logistics and public trust? What is the current operational status of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" and its final disposition? What is the impact of a potential ban on gasoline exports on domestic energy supply and military logistics? What is the strategic significance of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF media? What is the internal impact of the "Revolt-center" incident in Syktyvkar on domestic dissent? What are the implications of the declining ability of Russian citizens to purchase medicines? What is the nature and scale of internal ethnic tensions within Russia? What is the impact of the new state language policy on internal cohesion and potential for dissent among non-Russian ethnic groups? What are the implications of the closure of the Polish Consulate in Kaliningrad? What are the details of the extradition of the accused to Latvia? What is the extent of the impact of the nationwide payment system failure in Russia on military procurement and broader economic stability? What is the significance of the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov for internal security and counter-terrorism narratives? What is the impact of dry blood plasma application on RUF combat casualty care? What is the influence of Defense Minister Belousov's inspections on troop morale and operational efficiency? What is the full context and implication of the "naked migrant worker" FPV drone strike video for RUF propaganda and internal messaging? What are the implications of the listing of the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable organization"? What are the broader implications of the civilian casualty (Starovoyt's daughter's comments) on Russian public sentiment? What is the impact of the alleged "diversion" in the Russian Social Fund? What is the current assessment of the unidentified "Ruslan" cargo plane over Kyiv? What are the implications of the conviction of an LGBT supporter in St. Petersburg on internal human rights and international relations? What is the internal security implication of mass police stops of trucks near Moscow?
- CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts. HUMINT and SIGINT on affected RUF units to gauge C2 disruption and subsequent operational changes. Monitor legal proceedings related to corruption in the MoD. Prioritize IMINT on "Admiral Kuznetsov." Monitor any economic impacts of fuel export bans. Assess geopolitical implications of Chinese military activities. Monitor internal dissent and related actions. Monitor reports on social and health issues. Analyze RUF propaganda response to the "naked migrant worker" video.
Impact of Extreme Weather on Ukrainian Infrastructure & Operations:
- GAP: Detailed assessment of the damage and humanitarian impact of severe flooding in Lviv, Lutsk, and Pavlohrad Oblasts. What is the current capacity of emergency services and how will it affect resource allocation?
- CR: IMINT, OSINT (local news, social media), and HUMINT from affected regions and emergency services. Assess impact on key transportation routes and critical infrastructure.