Kyiv Oblast: RUF concluded a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours. Casualties: two (2) killed, twenty-eight (28) injured. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium and residential buildings. Vatican Embassy also reported damage. Firefighting operations concluded. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes temporarily changed but restored. New RUF UAV groups moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. Post-attack, rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace. Unidentified passenger aircraft sighted over Kyiv for the first time since the full-scale invasion; identified as a cargo plane. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Children and caregivers spending day at Sobi Club in Kyiv suburb as part of "People of the Future" project. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. Aggressor struck Pokrovska Hromada, Synelnykivskyi Raion, with UAVs, damaging an agricultural enterprise and causing a fire. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons in Synelnykivskyi Raion. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area, potentially acting as a spotter for RUF attack assets, and UAF means are engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target (likely ballistic missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a minus on a drone. Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov states RUF forces seek to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: РБК-Україна). Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. (Source: Олександр Вілкул). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in Yenakiieve. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports TOS-1A Solntsepyok unit destroyed an enemy fortified position for UAV launches in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk). ASTRA reports seven people killed and nine injured in Donetsk Oblast on July 10, according to the National Police. DeepState reports on RUF FPV drone strikes on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged civilian vehicles. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Verkhnokamyanske and towards Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske, employing "human wave" tactics. The risk of a tactical breakthrough in this sector is HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortified positions and basements used by RUF in destroyed buildings. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne, Stupochky and Bila Hora. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) at work. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian armored vehicle destroyed along with infantry near Chasiv Yar during a repelled assault, confirming effective UAF defense. Video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows a Russian occupant being engaged by a drone operator from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Chasiv Yar. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New RUF map indicates continued operations in Chasiv Yar direction. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. Enemy forces attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations; SIGINT corroborates degraded morale and combat effectiveness in forward Russian units. Enemy has committed operational reserves, including elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade moving towards Vovchansk. TASS reports more than 10 major UAF attacks repelled near Bohuslavka. Oleg Syniehubov reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv City and 10 settlements over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Starytsa, Vovchansk, Zapadne and Zelene in South Slobozhansky direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the operational zone of OTU "Kharkiv" as of the morning of July 11, 2025. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, discussed operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, showing damaged infrastructure and reporting on unsuccessful Russian assaults (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City): Nine (9) injured in Kharkiv after night attack. Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility. RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. Maternity hospital affected. ASTRA reports nine people injured in night attacks on Saltivskyi district, including mothers and newborn children from a maternity hospital. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports three infants were injured during Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share photos of aftermath, focusing on damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital, and casualties. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shares photos of Kharkiv recovering after drone strikes. (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi, and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. Video shows flood from bird's eye view. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New video footage confirms "Geran-2" (Shahed) drone attack in Lutsk overnight, with significant fires and explosions. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down. Initial reports of significant fire at a power substation (TETs) were confirmed by Operatyvnyi ZSU video, but the governor now claims the fire was not related to a drone attack. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Smolensk Oblast, Russian Federation: Three (3) UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by air defense forces. TASS reports Starovoyta was buried in Smolensk cemetery. The context implies a casualty, possibly military, but details are not provided. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. Acting Mayor of Sumy reports RUF drone attacks on Sumy suburbs, with no casualties. Russian forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews released video claiming to show capture of Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, indicating direct RUF ground action in the region. KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New photo message from RUF source details "Sumy - Miropolye" direction. (Source: Сливочный каприз) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). A 48-year-old man was injured in a RUF attack on Zaporizhzhia Raion. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an alert (🚨УВАГА🚨). UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons and strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a 71-year-old woman was killed as a result of an enemy attack on Polohivskyi Raion. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of aftermath of attacks, similar to Kharkiv reports by Syniehubov and Zelenskiy. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photo messages about compensation for rental housing for Defenders, indicating internal support measures. 58-year-old man killed in Stepnohirsk community due to enemy shelling. Air raid siren canceled (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Video from Zaporizhzhia OVA shows a wheelchair ramp installation and use in a civilian administrative building, focusing on accessibility for veterans. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). A rebuilt Ukrsibbank branch resumed operation on Soborny Ave in Zaporizhzhia, indicating recovery efforts. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons held a meeting in Voznesensk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of aviation weapons in Mykolaiv Oblast. Ballistic missile launched from Crimea towards Vilkove. (Source: Николаевский Ванёк). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. A group of RUF UAVs from Sumy Oblast is moving through Terny and Krolevets towards Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports groups of RUF strike UAVs in Mena, Olishivka, and Oster districts of Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace, indicating immediate threat. UAF Air Force reports a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. NEW: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Chernihiv region; means engaged. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions. New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports due to drone activity. MoD Russia claims 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. MoD Russia reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region. Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and will make an important statement on Russia on July 14. ASTRA reports that Pukovo Airport has temporarily suspended operations. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow and Russian regions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims 155 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian PVO overnight. WarGonzo shares a "Frontline summary." Kotsnews shares video of an award ceremony for "Assault Troopers." Север.Реалии confirms 155 UAVs shot down over Russia, two people killed. Lavrov declined to comment on Rubio's statements. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. Военкор Котенок reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian territory overnight, including 1 over Penza, 1 over Tula, 1 over Orel, 19 over Bryansk, 1 over Rostov, 1 over Kaluga, 11 over Moscow, 1 over Voronezh, 1 over Kursk, 1 over Lipetsk, and 1 over Ryazan. This confirms widespread UAF drone activity into Russian territory. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. TASS reports Lavrov stated Europe forgot lessons of history and tries to raise it for war with Russia. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the number of deserters in the Ukrainian army has exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and discusses forced mobilization in Ukraine mentioned in Europe (RUF propaganda). ТАСС reports the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip, with captions criticizing the private use of military aircraft by a high-ranking Russian official's "mistress," suggesting internal corruption and misuse of military assets. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. Peskov states that the possible deployment of foreign military contingents in Ukraine near Russian borders is unacceptable for Moscow. (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). Fire reported at Orsk Mechanical Plant, which produces artillery shells. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). TASS reports that a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. (Source: ТАСС). TASS reports the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, stated Russia is the main threat to his country. (Source: ТАСС). Russia is revoking consent for the operation of the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad. (Source: ASTRA). TASS reports Russia is revoking consent for the operation of the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad as a reciprocal measure. (Source: ТАСС). Russia extradited a person accused of violence against a 12-year-old girl to Latvia. (Source: ТАСС). Colonelcassad reports that Crimea Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments of 200,000 rubles to SVO participants from Crimea who participated between Feb 24 and Sep 21, 2022. (Source: Colonelcassad). TASS reports a boy who was thrown to the floor at Sheremetyevo Airport has been discharged from the hospital. (Source: ТАСС). A photo message from Alex Parker Returns appears to depict a social media post with text regarding "If you have..." and includes an image of a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). Военкор Котенок reports a nationwide payment system failure, impacting military procurement of drones. (Source: Военкор Котенок). TASS reports Russian forces have begun using dry blood plasma for primary medical aid at the front lines. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" unit, focusing on combat tasks. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russia's leading universities will transition to a new higher education system in the 2026-2027 academic year. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russia's Ministry of Justice added Yale University to the list of undesirable organizations. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Putin approved the fundamentals of state language policy. (Source: ТАСС, Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russia will continue to resist attempts to cancel its culture and restrict the use of Russian language. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russia will create a personnel reserve of Russian language teachers globally. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Separate budget places in universities will be allocated for training Russian language teachers and philologists. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Alphabets for languages of Russian peoples will be created on the basis of Cyrillic. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Minjustice RF added public movement "Our Way Out" and 5 individuals to the list of "foreign agents". (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA, Север.Реалии) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. TASS reports Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stating UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast are "successfully repelled." TASS reports 41,000 apartments and 14,000 damaged vehicles restored. Restoration in Repyakhovka and Vyazovoye cannot begin due to proximity to the border. More than 400 social facilities damaged. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calls Gladkov. Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly. TASS reports a resident of Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, died due to a UAF ammunition strike. ASTRA also confirms one person killed. Операция Z shares photo messages claiming "enemy attacks Belgorod region, killing civilians," including images of damage. Gladkov reports to Putin that 70,000 children were evacuated from Belgorod Oblast in summer/autumn 2024. (Source: ТАСС). TASS reports Gladkov presented Putin with a painting on a fragment of an air defense missile cover, depicting a girl with a dog and the inscription "Belgorod does not surrender," symbolizing resilience. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports Prosecutor General's Office seeks nearly 1 billion rubles from organizers of defensive structures on Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Prosecutor General's Office is seeking almost 1 billion rubles from the organizers of the construction of fortifications on the border of Belgorod Oblast with Ukraine. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. Mayor of Taganrog reports drone debris fell on the Beriev Aviation Plant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. TASS reports number of poisoned in Dagestan reached 372, 357 are children, 97 remain hospitalized. Video from Alex Parker Returns shows a physical altercation in a store in North Ossetia, alleged to be a Dagestani man beaten for wearing shorts, potentially indicative of inter-ethnic tensions within Russia. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Head of Magaramkent district utilities arrested in Dagestan following mass water poisoning. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed. 19 enemy fixed-wing UAVs detected and destroyed overnight. MoD Russia reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 19 over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained two residents for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer. AV БогомаZ reports four additional UAVs of aircraft type were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by MoD RF Air Defense units. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. Ceremonial welcome at an agricultural festival or event in Russia ("Bryansk Field Day") (Source: AV БогомаZ). This is a civilian event, no military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Bryansk Oblast reported as country's top potato producer, focusing on agricultural output. (Source: AV БогомаZ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Firefighter competition took place in Bryansk Oblast, confirming local MChS activities. (Source: AV БогомаZ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. New reporting indicates successful maritime attacks by Houthi movement on "MAGIC SEAS" and "ETERNITY C" vessels in the Red Sea. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast, with means engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports group of strike UAVs near Odesa in Black Sea. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) in Odesa. RUF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad) confirm strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Военкор Котенок shares photos confirming "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on the Odesa Oblast TCC on Zankovetskaya Street. "Два майора" and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" also confirm the strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Kotsnews and WarGonzo also confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC, with Alex Parker Returns stating "Прилет одной из Геранек по областному ТЦК в Одессе. Быть добру!" RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video with a caption implying the destruction of a TCC in Odesa, further supporting the confirmed strike. Video captures significant explosion with large plume of dark smoke near Odesa, implied to be TCC strike (Source: Военкор Котенок). Colonelcassad posted a video of what they claim are Odesa residents conducting "objective control" of Geran drone strikes, with footage of an explosion. TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New video shows a Shahed drone impact without explosion in Odesa. (Source: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: UAF successfully intercepted a Shahed drone with an interceptor drone in Odesa. (Source: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). New image shows tactical map for Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. RUF claims new positions in Dzerzhinsk and its vicinity, advancing towards Konstantinovka. (Source: Басурин о главном). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Zaporizhzhya, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and Zelene Pole in Novopavlivka direction. Video shows UAV operators from 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaging a vehicle with personnel near Yanvarskyi, west of Voskresenka (Source: Воин DV). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction and Grigorievka. "Сливочный каприз" shows a map and drone footage related to Krasny Liman - Zelena Dolyna. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Novoyehorivka, Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Zelena Dolyna. Video from Russian MoD shows drone footage of an artillery strike near Zelena Dolyna, DPR, with a Russian flag being placed on a monument. (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Операция Z, MoD Russia, «Зона СВО»). Video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike. (Source: НгП раZVедка). Video from Старше Эдды shows combat operations in Krasnolimansk direction, including artillery strikes, movement of personnel, and placement of a Russian flag on a monument, confirming the claimed capture of Zelena Dolyna. (Source: Старше Эдды). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map depicting claimed "liberation of Zelena Dolyna." (Source: Рыбарь) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. A RUF photo message with caption "Краснолиманское направление" shows a map, suggesting continued RUF focus on this sector. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian forces, specifically 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of 144th Motorized Rifle Division, captured Zelena Dolyna. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. Enemy forces have increased the tempo of probing attacks and localized assaults, assessed as a supporting effort. New image depicts "Pokrovsko-Mirnohradskoye direction" map. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that in the area of responsibility of the "Spartan" brigade, Russians do not abandon attempts to advance. TASS claims the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov is effectively in a "fire bag". General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Razine, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (Source: MoD Russia). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault involving a "Tsar-tank." General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Katerynivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on a UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Lvove. UAF General Staff reports repelling 11 Russian army assaults. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Saldo reports UAF conducted an airstrike on Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, with people trapped under rubble. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced and lifted an air danger regime. RUF reports a UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. One person confirmed killed, one injured. Игорь Артамонов, Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, announced a "red level" UAV threat for Lipetsk City and Lipetsk Municipal District. Igor Artamonov reports red level UAV threat called off. Igor Artamonov posts on "Pride of Lipetsk Land" program. (Source: Игорь Артамонов). Igor Artamonov reports the lifting of the "yellow level" of drone threat. (Source: Игорь Артамонов). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports burning production facilities of a major agro-holding after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports four people injured in a Ukrainian drone strike in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of two additional RUF Colonels (Sergey Ilyin, Commander of 155th Marine Brigade; Leonid Bashkardin, Chief of Staff of the Brigade) along with Major General Mikhail Gudkov and Colonel Nariman Shikhaliev from a missile strike on a command post in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast. Photo evidence indicates memorial plaques. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Военкор Котенок and Alex Parker Returns confirms the burial of Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, who died on July 2 during a missile strike on a meeting place. This further corroborates the high-value UAF strike. Drone footage shows what appears to be an attack on a ground target in a forested area in Kursk Oblast, with explosions and smoke, implying ongoing military engagement (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk Oblast. (Source: ТАСС). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the liquidation of the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Colombian volunteer fighting for Ukraine in Kursk Oblast. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russian MoD reports Ukrainian militants mined money, toys, and sweets in Kursk Oblast. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow. Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. MoD Russia reports 11 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Moscow region overnight. Flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport lifted. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow. Новости Москвы reports forecasted peak heat of +36°C today. ASTRA reports Moscow has implemented enhanced security measures for law enforcement agencies in case of drone attacks from Russian territory, citing a source. Moscow weather update reports record high temperatures (Source: Новости Москвы). This is a civilian-related update. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Moscow Stock Exchange and St. Petersburg Exchange to resume trading for UGOC shares on July 14. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Video shows public space, likely subway, with civilians; no military significance. (Source: Новости Москвы) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Moscow is experiencing +36 degrees Celsius. (Source: Новости Москвы) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." Additionally, Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. Басурин о главном questions "Whom does Russophobia of Baku surprise?", implying growing anti-Russian sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Rybar reports on US aiming for Zangezur corridor, discussing negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. (Source: Рыбарь) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. RUF KABs reported on Kupyansk direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Zapadne and Petropavlivka. "Два майора" shares drone footage of military operations in Kupyansk direction, showing attacks on vehicles and positions. (Source: Два майора). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New RUF map details "Kupyansk - Manuylivka" direction. (Source: Сливочный каприз) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. Bastrykin ordered a report on the car accident with a minibus. Mash na Donbasse reports a motorcyclist died after being hit by a car in Luhansk. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Red Sea: Unverified RUF media report with video claims maritime attack on vessels 'MAGIC SEAS' and 'ETERNITY C' by "people in slippers," implying Houthi involvement. This highlights the growing threat of USVs and ballistic missiles against maritime targets, a capability that RUF could attempt to emulate or exploit. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Syberia, Russian Federation: Alex Parker Returns refers to Yugra as "homeland of Uzbeks" in a video, hinting at internal ethnic tensions/disputes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Syktyvkar, Russian Federation: City court released Darya Chernysheva, director of "Revolt-center," under travel restrictions for "foreign agent" evasion charges. ASTRA reports "veterans of the SVO and public figures" held an action at the "Revolt-center" building in Syktyvkar, displaying "Z" letters and the word "traitors." (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Novoseklovske Direction (RUF Map): RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map displaying military movements and territorial control. Рыбарь posts a message about "База — 52ой выпуск", likely an operational summary or analysis. Рыбарь also shared a photo message "«Коалиция желающих» готовится", which appears to be a propaganda image. Рыбарь posts "Срыв учета", potentially referring to disruption of UAF personnel accounting. Rybar posts on "PAS Catastrophe" (Moldova). (Source: Рыбарь). Рыбарь posts an immediate assessment regarding European "freedom." (Source: Рыбарь). Rybar shares an illustrative graphic with "British missiles guarding the Ukrainian sky." (Source: Рыбарь). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zakarpattia Oblast: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was beaten to death during mobilization efforts in Zakarpattia. This is currently an unverified claim, but if true, could escalate diplomatic tensions. Photos show children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast being transported to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). This indicates internal displacement support. RBC-Україна reports Ukraine's MFA reacted to Hungary's claims about a "forcibly mobilized Hungarian." (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Tula Oblast, Russian Federation: Residents report a large number of explosions. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast due to UAV attack. "Два майора" reports one injured, 13 drones shot down over Tula Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a loud morning near the Tula Instrument Design Bureau. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. ASTRA reports 4 defense enterprises were attacked in Tula Oblast overnight. (Source: ASTRA). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a public safety advisory regarding "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, claiming a massive strike is imminent. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Air Force Alert: UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. UAF Air Force reports a UAV on northern Kyiv Oblast moving southwest, and a UAV threat in Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Odesa Oblast from Black Sea. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV in Brahin, Belarus, heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). RBC-Ukraine confirms 44/79 drones shot down, 16 lost (Source: РБК-Україна). Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of the ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UAF General Staff reports 44 strike UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). RBC-Ukraine reports on the development of SAMs against "Kinzhal" and "Zircon" missiles. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukraine is discussing additional SAMP/T systems, highlighting efforts to strengthen air defense. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Verolyubovka): RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Video provided by TASS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone reportedly attacked the Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, which manufactures MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-29K/KUB, and MiG-29M/M2 fighters. Video shows a fiery explosion. ASTRA shares photo message about the UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. ASTRA confirms attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, wall of compressor station collapsed. Video from BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows apparent drone impact. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Новости Москвы reports 10,000 tick bites in Moscow region since the season began. (Source: Новости Москвы). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: UAF General Staff confirms striking an aviation plant and a missile production enterprise for air defense systems. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Unidentified "Ruslan" cargo plane seen over Kyiv; RUF sources speculate on its purpose. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Leningrad Oblast, Russian Federation (Pulkovo Airport): Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ASTRA confirms temporary suspension for 08:45 to 09:45 MSK. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): TASS reports the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung suggests Ukraine has two ways to avoid complete defeat, both involving some form of retreat. Север.Реалии reports BBC confirmed 118,000 Russian deaths and 523 foreign deaths in Ukraine. Russia's total confirmed deaths exceed 118,000 (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). Russian Football Club "Orenburg" to replace Moscow "Torpedo" in Premier League. (Source: ТАСС). Sever.Realii reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense may send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, indicating significant material loss or maintenance challenges. (Source: Север.Реалии). WarGonzo shares video claiming China conducted an amphibious landing drill on Taiwan. (Source: WarGonzo). A study reports 34% of Russian residents could not buy medicines in 2024. (Source: Север.Реалии). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia is considering scrapping its only aircraft carrier, the "Admiral Kuznetsov." (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: STERNENKO reports that Russia intends to scrap its only aircraft carrier. (Source: STERNENKO) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russian Social Fund reportedly experiencing a "large-scale diversion," impacting state prestige. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Residential Areas): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared aerial footage of damaged residential buildings, suggesting recent combat or strikes in urban areas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports extensive damage in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) from January 2025. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (General Losses): UAF General Staff reports a total of 1040 Russian personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF losses. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" RUF personnel. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports that a Russian propagandist confirmed the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, in addition to Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Mikhail Gudkov, as a result of a strike on the 155th Brigade's headquarters. Басурин о главном reports 19-year-old Artem Melnik liquidated on the front, framing him as a "meme" from 2014. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, Head of Staff, Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF liquidated the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). RBC-Україна reports the SBU Colonel killed in Kyiv was involved in liquidating "Motorola" and the Kursk offensive. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: SBU Colonel Voronich, killed in Kyiv, was reportedly involved in operations in Kursk Oblast and the assassination of "Motorola". (Source: Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Video shows liquidation of a naked "заробітчанина" (migrant worker) by an FPV drone strike. The term "заробітчанина" is used pejoratively by RUF, implying a non-combatant status, but the video clearly depicts a uniformed soldier being targeted. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of successfully "demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel. (Source: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Colonelcassad shares drone footage from Donbas operations, showing destruction of RUF armored vehicles and personnel. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Fiber Optic Cables): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photo messages titled "UAF Fiber Optics," showing product labels for fiber optic cables. This is likely intelligence on UAF communication infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kazakhstan: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a video of an individual walking in Kazakhstan with anti-Putin graffiti, indicating anti-RUF sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation: Глеб Никитин shares photos of city landscaping and monuments, indicating efforts to showcase normalcy. Глеб Никитин shares photos of "Olenya Luna" (Deer Moon) over Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin, again unrelated to military operations but promoting normalcy. Alex Parker Returns reports ban on migrant workers in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast was lifted due to labor shortages in public catering, hotels, taxis, and cleaning. This is an economic factor impacting workforce. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Metro: The Office of the Prosecutor General released a video on "Kyiv Metro: tunnel destruction between Demiivska and Lybidska – it's about irresponsibility," which suggests an ongoing internal investigation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Video depicts civilians in a subway station, no military significance. (Source: Новости Москвы) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donbas (General): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Bobrytsia): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast, with photo evidence. Children and caregivers spending day at Sobi Club in Kyiv suburb as part of "People of the Future" project. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): RBC-Ukraine reports searches are being conducted on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military. RBC-Ukraine reports Kubrakov reacted to information about searches at his place. MP Shevchenko received new suspicion regarding fertilizer fraud from Belarus (Source: РБК-Україна). "Резерв+" app now allows online payment of fines for not updating personal data. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports that schoolchildren from Zaporizhzhia went on a two-day educational trip to Bila Tserkva, and learned about the work of a top pharmaceutical enterprise in Ukraine. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. (Source: Олександр Вілкул). The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons met with families of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). The Office of the Prosecutor General reports suspicion and detention of organizers of a scheme to sell fake medical certificates for $2000. (Source: Офіс Генерального прокурора). Tax Service of Ukraine states mobilized private entrepreneurs are exempt from taxes and reporting during military service. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports that Foreign Ministry will deal with countries that help Russia. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports on the possible merger of the Ministry of Unity and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry discussing ambassadorial rotations; 20 decrees expected for appointments and dismissals. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Ukrainian police reportedly liquidated a criminal group undermining UAF operations; over 50 searches conducted, likely related to forged mobilization documents. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. DBR is conducting searches at the head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, Vitaliy Shabunin. (Source: STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Office of Prosecutor General reported suspicion against a Member of Parliament for facilitating privatization of forest land, causing 1.8 million UAH in damages. (Source: Офіс Генерального прокурора) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту announces a livestream on a Ukrainian channel instead of a written review, indicating current affairs discussion. (Source: Zvиздец Мангусту) CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Malynivka in Huliaipole direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
France: "Два майора" reports France has resumed production of SCALP cruise missiles after a 15-year break, with accompanying photos of missile components and assembly. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: French Chief of General Staff states Russia is the most serious and powerful threat to Europe. (Source: Операция Z) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast (General): Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. RBC-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Zelenskiy / Official reports morning attack on Odesa Oblast. ASTRA reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. The ASTRA video shows damaged buildings and an injured horse, reinforcing civilian impact. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of a significant explosion, captioned "П...ц ТЦК" (F***ed TCC), further confirming the strike on the Odesa TCC. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa, further reinforcing civilian impact. Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 11. (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Video shows damaged buildings, injured animals (horses, dog), and rescue personnel in Odesa aftermath. (Source: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). "Два майора" posted an image of an alleged incident at "Privoz" market in Odesa, further highlighting civilian impact. (Source: Два майора). STERNENKO reports a horse was killed and animals injured at a stable in Odesa following Russian strikes, with accompanying videos of the aftermath including damaged buildings and injured animals. (Source: STERNENKO). RBC-Україна provides tactical analysis of rescue operations in Odesa after Shahed attack. (Source: РБК-Україна). Оперативний ЗСУ provides tactical analysis of firefighting operations in Odesa after Shahed attack. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sweden: ASTRA reports on a Russian family living in Sweden for 16 years, with two children born there, facing deportation to Tajikistan despite not having citizenship of any country and speaking Swedish better than Russian. This highlights a humanitarian/political issue with potential implications for international relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Turkey/Kurds: Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged victory by Turkey over the PKK, claiming Kurdish fighters have begun disarming in northern Iraq, signaling a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East. Colonelcassad shares photos and videos from Iraq, featuring soldiers around a large bowl-shaped structure and moving down a staircase, likely related to counter-PKK operations or training exercises. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Orlov Oblast, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports the Governor of Orlov Oblast announced damage to a "regional enterprise." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Internal Affairs): Mash na Donbasse reports 7 years in prison for a Zaporizhzhia Oblast resident for hand grenades in refrigerator. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". Court in Chelyabinsk nationalized shares of "Yuzhurazoloto" based on Prosecutor General's claim (Source: ASTRA). Lugansk residents to be without water due to power substation repairs during heatwave. (Source: Mash na Donbasse). TASS reports a prosecutor is requesting a 10-year prison sentence for Sergey Abramov, a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for financing extremism, indicating ongoing internal crackdown. (Source: ТАСС). General SVR reports on internal Russian political dynamics. (Source: General SVR). TASS reports on a court case in Moldova, where prosecutors seek 13 years for a deputy accused of financial violations, likely an effort to highlight a Russian-friendly narrative of opposition suppression. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Prosecutor seeks 10 years for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Ilya Timofeev, for large-scale bribery. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports over 60 foreigners in occupied DPR faced administrative and criminal cases for document forgery and drug use. (Source: Mash на Донбассе) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Two maiors report conviction of an LGBT supporter in St. Petersburg who tried to create a religious community. (Source: Два майора) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine, likely regarding corruption or misconduct. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that all Ukrainian students will be required to undergo military training at firing ranges starting in September. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Diplomacy): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports Valeriy Zaluzhny (former Commander-in-Chief of UAF) published an article for Ukrainian Pravda on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances amid geopolitical instability. Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov gave an interview to Bloomberg, stating that ceasefire must be achieved ASAP, before end of the year, and that RUF wants to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RBC-Ukraine announces more meetings between Ukraine and the US at various levels. (Source: РБК-Україна). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports productive meetings with German partners at URC 2025. (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Trump reacted to the Russian strike on the Kharkiv maternity hospital. (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Diplomacy): TASS reports Peskov stated Russia continues work on prisoner and body exchanges with Ukraine, and is awaiting proposals from Ukraine on direct negotiations. He also declined to reveal details of Russia's proposals to US Secretary of State Rubio. "War correspondents of Russian Spring" (RUF propaganda) report Peskov's statements regarding Russia waiting for Trump's "important statement" on Monday (Source: Операция Z). Peskov states Brussels pushing Kyiv to continue war until "last Ukrainian". (Source: ТАСС). Операция Z reports Putin is confident in increasing advantages and not willing to make concessions under US pressure, according to NYT. (Source: Операция Z). Colonelcassad shares photos from a "Union State: Cultural and Information" event, indicating continued diplomatic efforts with Belarus. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kotsnews reports France named Russia its main enemy, confirming previous TASS reporting. (Source: Kotsnews) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: TASS reports Lavrov arrived in North Korea on a visit. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Cultural Impact): Zelenskiy / Official shares video tribute to Igor Poklad, Ukrainian composer, focusing on his legacy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Global Diplomacy: UK Defense Minister John Healey states UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to ensure a potential ceasefire as part of a new "Coalition of the Willing" international initiative from the EU. (Source: Воин DV). Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy, is expected to visit Kyiv on July 14 for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz states Ukraine must officially recognize the Volyn massacre and genocide of the Polish people. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). Kotsnews reports US demands Europe donate Patriot systems to Ukraine. (Source: Kotsnews). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source "Басурин о главном" disseminates British MoD report on F-35 fighter jet issues, indicating RUF intent to amplify issues with Western military systems. (Source: Басурин о главном) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Photo message suggests US troops in Europe will be equipped with individual anti-drone systems. (Source: Два майора) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine discusses reasons behind Trump's apparent shift towards supplying weapons to Ukraine. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Trump stated there will be new actions towards Russia and Ukraine, without specifics. (Source: ТАСС, Операция Z) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Medical): Новости Москвы reports doctors in Russian regions have started treating cancer with oak bark and chamomile, suggesting potential issues in access to modern medicine or alternative practices gaining traction. (Source: Новости Москвы). A study reports 34% of Russian residents could not buy medicines in 2024. (Source: Север.Реалии). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.NEW: Medical consultation report for a patient in a Russian "Mother and Child" clinic, no military significance. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russian veteran's certificate observed. No military significance. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Personal identification document, likely a passport, observed. No military significance. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Drones): Филолог в засаде announces a "Dronnitsa" meeting on September 6-7, signaling continued focus and development in drone technology within Russia. (Source: Филолог в засаде). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Fuel Exports): TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports, including for producers, if necessary, to stabilize the domestic fuel market. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Volunteer Support): Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column for "KatyaValya" line, indicating ongoing civilian support for the front. (Source: Colonelcassad). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Crimean Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments for SVO participants from Crimea. (Source: Colonelcassad). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message about "If you have..." and a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Военкор Котенок shares video appealing for support for Russian soldiers, indicating continued reliance on public funding. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan (Internal Affairs): «Зона СВО» shares a video related to the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov by Dagestani Wahhabis in the forest, emphasizing internal security threats. (Source: «Зона СВО»). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk City: Two people injured in a traffic accident on Naberezhnaya. No direct military implications. (Source: Mash na Донбассе) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Satellite Imagery Analysis: RUF source Rybar shows satellite imagery of Al-Udeid Air Base before and after an alleged Iranian missile attack, showing damage to a main facility. This indicates RUF's access to and use of satellite imagery for BDA. (Source: Рыбарь) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source (Филолог в засаде) shares French OSINT analysis of tactical schemes and photos of defensive lines, suggesting shared intelligence or open-source analysis is being distributed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FPV Drone Precision: RUF source Colonelcassad shares video demonstrating high-precision FPV drone strike directly into a UAF dugout. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian MoD Inspections: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" Group of Forces in the special military operation zone, focusing on combat missions. He also met with Kalashnikov Concern to increase supply of small arms to airborne and assault units. (Source: MoD Russia) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" troop grouping, showcasing advanced weaponry and highlighting efforts to enhance capabilities. (Source: Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Norwegian Helsinki Committee: Russian Ministry of Justice added Norwegian Helsinki Committee to list of "undesirable organizations". (Source: ASTRA) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Starovoyt Fatality: Daughter of Starovoyt (likely the individual mentioned in previous report buried in Smolensk) expresses regret her father won't see her become a doctor or his younger daughter finish school, confirming a civilian casualty with possible public impact. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Ivanivka): RUF source reports another pontoon crossing destroyed by UAF forces over the Vovcha River near Ivanivka. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Logistics - Northern Sea Route: Maersk container ship completed its first passage through the Northern Sea Route, potentially shortening routes between Asia and Europe, indicating global trade shifts with geopolitical implications. (Source: Басурин о главном) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Russian Federation (Langepas):NEW: GUR reports an important gas pipeline for the Russian military-industrial complex (VPC) was destroyed in Langepas due to an explosion. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Nature/Wildlife):NEW: Two maiors share a video of an alligator hunting a pig, indicating non-military content. (Source: Два майора) CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Russia (Residential Areas):NEW: Two maiors share a photo of a residential building at twilight, indicating non-military content. (Source: Два майора) CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Kharkiv Oblast (Sport/Rehab):NEW: Oleg Syniehubov shares photos supporting Olympic sport and creating conditions for veteran rehabilitation. (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Vasylivka):NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an airstrike on an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality. Severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), causing localized damage. Electricity deficit due to heat. Moscow forecasts peak heat of +36°C, which could apply to neighboring areas impacting operations.
Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and strains emergency services. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. Drone footage shows widespread flooding in Lviv. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis. Water poisoning crisis has expanded to 372 affected, with 357 children.
Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds.
Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines. (Source: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia)).
Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
Kursk Oblast: UAV attack resulted in fires at production facilities of a major agro-holding.
Lipetsk Oblast: UAV threat reported by local governor for Elets and Eletskiy district. UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing fire.
Belgorod Oblast: Proximity to the border with Ukraine is preventing reconstruction efforts in some villages.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage to an agricultural enterprise and fire in Pokrovska Hromada due to UAV strike. NEW: Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) experienced heavy rainfall with hail, causing flooding. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lugansk (occupied): Residents will be without water due to repairs of power substations during a heatwave. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Gas Pipeline): Another gas pipeline important for the enemy's military-industrial complex (VPC) was destroyed in Russia, according to Ukrainian sources. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
UAF:
Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Western Ukraine. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. UAF Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. All incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace and a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a successful drone neutralization. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, means engaged to shoot them down. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down out of 79 launched (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down by "Trojka" air defense units in a month. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF General Staff reports 44 UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). RBC-Ukraine reports on development of SAMs against "Kinzhal" and "Zircon" missiles. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: UAF General Staff confirms striking an aviation plant and a missile production enterprise for air defense systems. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: UAF successfully intercepted a Shahed drone with an interceptor drone in Odesa. (Source: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Ukraine's MFA confirms discussions on additional SAMP/T systems. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian interceptor drones with AI are adapting to enemy tactics. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground advances on critical axes in Donbas, Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, a Strela anti-aircraft missile system, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone targeting and neutralizing an enemy combatant near a damaged building. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade conducting amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications in destroyed buildings. Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing UAF combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "OMEGA-WEST" special forces unit cleared a multi-story building. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky of Sumy region, Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. UAF General Staff provides updated reports on clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares photos of soldiers training, indicating ongoing combat readiness and adaptation. Сили оборони Півдня України shares video of cooperation between artillery and drones from Dnipro Battalion with pilots of RUBPAK 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones). (Source: STERNENKO). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying an armored vehicle and its crew. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). DeepState shares video of RUF FPV drone operations on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged vehicles. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). STERNENKO shares a photo message showing a Russian occupant allegedly killed by a drone strike while attempting to steal a washing machine. (Source: STERNENKO). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that all Ukrainian students will be required to undergo military training at firing ranges starting in September. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). UAF DSHV demonstrates operational use of Mavic 3 Thermal drones for reconnaissance and targeting, including destruction of an armored vehicle. (Source: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF forces in Kharkiv direction emphasize tactical medicine training for combat effectiveness. (Source: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF General Staff reports on current operational situation as of 16:00Z. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Video shows FPV drone strike neutralizing a uniformed soldier in dense foliage, likely UAF action. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF forces destroyed another pontoon crossing over the Vovcha River near Ivanivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF successfully engaged a RUF buggy on the Lyman direction using a fiber-optic drone. (Source: STERNENKO) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports an airstrike on an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Ukrainian soldier neutralized an enemy in hand-to-hand combat, indicating high combat readiness and individual valor. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting, and casualty management in Kyiv (28 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks. STERNENKO reports 40.1 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video explaining how "wanted" persons are legally pursued in Ukraine, including references to articles of the Criminal Code and the Code of Ukraine on Administrative Offenses concerning detention, prosecution, and martial law, likely a public information campaign. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military, possibly for improving logistical or personnel management. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photos of a meeting with families of 36th Separate Marine Brigade soldiers on POW/MIA issues. STERNENKO reports 41 million out of 50 million UAH collected for anti-thermal cloaks. Ukrainian children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast sent to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). This is a civilian support measure. Children and caregivers of "People of the Future" project spend day at Sobi Club near Kyiv. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren embarked on an educational trip, highlighting continued efforts for civilian well-being and education despite conflict. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons met with families of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on soldiers missing near Pobieda, demonstrating ongoing support for families of service members. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. This indicates proactive measures for civilian sustainment. (Source: Олександр Вілкул). The Office of the Prosecutor General reports suspicion and detention of organizers of a scheme to sell fake medical certificates for $2000. (Source: Офіс Генерального прокурора). Tax Service of Ukraine states mobilized private entrepreneurs are exempt from taxes and reporting during military service. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). STERNENKO reports 42 million UAH collected for anti-thermal cloaks (progressing towards 50 million target). (Source: STERNENKO) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF Coordination Staff met with families of the 21st Separate Public Order Protection Brigade of the National Guard, addressing POW issues. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Oleg Syniehubov reports on supporting Olympic sport and veteran rehabilitation in Kharkiv Oblast. (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. Zelenskyy met with Bulgarian PM, EU Commission President, and Polish Prime Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. Олександр Вілкул shares photos from a meeting, captioning "RECONSTRUCT BETTER THAN IT WAS", indicating focus on recovery and rebuilding. RBC-Ukraine reports the European Commission wants to propose a floating price cap mechanism on Russian oil. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statements on being disappointed with Russia, and that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares video of Giorgia Meloni at a conference, discussing increased pressure on Moscow because Italians and Europeans are tired of the war. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Valeriy Zaluzhny's article on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances. The "Rerezerv+" app now allows online payment of fines with a 50% discount (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RBC-Ukraine reports that Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level visits and diplomatic support. (Source: РБК-Україна). Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz states Ukraine must officially recognize the Volyn massacre and genocide of the Polish people. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports productive meetings with German partners at URC 2025. (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). RBC-Україна reports Ukraine's MFA reacted to Hungary's claims about a "forcibly mobilized Hungarian." (Source: РБК-Україна). RBC-Україна reports that the NBU lowered the exchange rates of USD and EUR for the next week, suggesting economic stability efforts. (Source: РБК-Україна). Zaporizhzhia OVA actively participating in "URC2025" for Ukraine's recovery, emphasizing specific needs of frontline regions in defense, medicine, energy, business, science, and education. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Budanov stated ceasefire could be declared in coming months. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry discussing ambassadorial rotations; 20 decrees expected for appointments and dismissals. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF leadership denied an alleged UN report from 2022 accusing Russia of striking the Olenivka detention center. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, honored the memory of Artem Kostyra, a hero rescuer. (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF:
Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. RUF MoD reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region, and 19 over Bryansk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports RUF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise in Pokrovska Hromada. RUF forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy attack UAVs on Odesa. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC in Odesa. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. ТАСС reports that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. MoD Russia reiterates 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons between July 5-11. Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant, producer of artillery shells. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Colonelcassad shows video claiming "Odessa residents are objectively monitoring the arrival of Russian kamikaze drones of the Geran type." (Source: Colonelcassad). TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports 4 defense enterprises were attacked in Tula Oblast overnight. (Source: ASTRA). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a public safety advisory regarding "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, claiming a massive strike is imminent. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). New video footage confirms "Geran-2" (Shahed) drone attack in Lutsk overnight, with significant fires and explosions. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Rybar posts video showing satellite imagery of Al-Udeid Air Base before and after an alleged Iranian missile attack, showing damage to a main facility. (Source: Рыбарь) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Colonelcassad shares video demonstrating high-precision FPV drone strike directly into a UAF dugout. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Video shows aerial view of landscape with soldier and explosion, likely a drone strike by RUF. (Source: Alex Parker Returns) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Fighterbomber shares video of OFZAB-500 glide bombs impacting a UAF stronghold. (Source: Fighterbomber) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Colonelcassad shares drone footage from Donbas operations, showing destruction of RUF armored vehicles and personnel. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an airstrike on an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast. Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and in the northern part of Vovchansk. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards the Vovchansk area. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, employing "human wave" tactics. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis. "Операция Z" reports Russian forces are advancing towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in the Huliaipole direction. TASS reports UAF was forced to retreat from Zelena Dolyna. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel car(BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims ВКС РФ destroyed two UAF platoons in Dnipropetrovsk direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Операция Z confirms the liberation of Zelena Dolyna. MoD Russia reports Zelenaya Dolina (DPR) and Sobolevka (Kharkiv region) were liberated by Zapad Group of Forces. "Arcangel Spetsnaza" claims battles for Kamenskoye are over. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). RUF claims advance towards Konstantinovka, taking positions in Dzerzhinsk. (Source: Басурин о главном). Kotsnews shares videos showing Russian soldiers describing operations to take Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, reporting on encountered enemy equipment and successful infiltration. (Source: Kotsnews). MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (Source: MoD Russia). Video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike. (Source: НгП раZVедка). Video from Старше Эдды confirms the claimed capture of Zelena Dolyna. (Source: Старше Эдды). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New RUF map indicates continued operations in Chasiv Yar direction. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New photo message from RUF source details "Sumy - Miropolye" direction. (Source: Сливочный каприз) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New RUF map details "Kupyansk - Manuylivka" direction. (Source: Сливочный каприз) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Video shows aerial reconnaissance footage of a military vehicle moving on a dirt road, with a plume of smoke, possibly an impact or disturbance. (Source: Воин DV) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source (Сливочный каприз) reports on operations in Kamenskoye. (Source: Сливочный каприз) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source (Воин DV) alleges "DeepState" maps caused problems for UAF units in "gray zones," indicating RUF is monitoring and attempting to leverage OSINT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian forces, specifically 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of 144th Motorized Rifle Division, captured Zelena Dolyna. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed "Aidar" militants (prohibited in RF) in Malievka, South Donetsk direction. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options. ASTRA reports that only just over 70 war participants have been demobilized in the past year. "Два майора" is seen appealing for donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of humanitarian aid delivery by Russian forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a military award ceremony for "For the Assault" sign, acknowledging battlefield valor and possibly boosting morale/recruitment. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares images showing two drones and a QR code with a shield, captioned "From the volunteers 2.0," indicating continued reliance on and promotion of volunteer support for tactical equipment. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims number of Ukrainian deserters exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and emphasizes forced mobilization in Ukraine (RUF propaganda). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a mobilized individual was released after their publication, possibly highlighting public pressure on mobilization issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo of a woman in a military uniform, implying a propaganda piece with the caption "Zaluzhny is begging the US for expired missiles," indicating efforts to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies. TASS reports guardians of fallen SVO fighters will receive social support, draft law to be submitted to State Duma. "Верстка" (Russian publication) reports that only 12% of detained Russian criminals are willing to go to the front (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This suggests challenges in penal recruitment. Филолог в засаде announced a "Dronnitsa" meeting, indicating continued focus on drone development and innovation within Russia. (Source: Филолог в засаде). TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports. (Source: ТАСС). Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column. (Source: Colonelcassad). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Crimean Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments for SVO participants from Crimea. (Source: Colonelcassad). A photo message from Alex Parker Returns appears to depict a social media post with text regarding "If you have..." and includes an image of a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). A video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники appears to show an interrogator threatening a serviceman with deployment to assault, indicating potential coercive mobilization tactics. (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). Военкор Котенок reports a nationwide payment system failure, impacting military procurement of drones. (Source: Военкор Котенок). TASS reports Russian forces have begun using dry blood plasma for primary medical aid at the front lines. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" unit, focusing on combat tasks and showcasing military equipment and drones. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russian Defense Minister Belousov inspected the "Dnepr" Group of Forces, focusing on combat missions and increasing small arms supply. (Source: MoD Russia) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Sales of a new Huawei tablet have begun in Russia, promoting a sense of normalcy and technological availability. (Source: Новости Москвы) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Военкор Котенок shares video appealing for support for Russian soldiers, indicating continued reliance on public funding. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. TASS reports an individual wanted for trading personal data of Russians has been extradited from Indonesia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Voronezh official, Gennady Shvyrkov, was detained for fraud against "SVO" fighters. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. Полиция Хабаровского края reports an award to a police captain for assisting a sick man, aimed at showcasing positive internal actions. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer, confirming ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Colonelcassad shares a video message claiming the detention of two Ukrainian special services agents who were carrying out intelligence and subversive activities in Bryansk and neighboring regions, further confirming RUF counter-intelligence operations. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports the Prosecutor General's Office wants to recover nearly 1 billion rubles from the organizers of defensive structures on the Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). Video from Alex Parker Returns shows a physical altercation in a store in North Ossetia, alleged to be a Dagestani man beaten for wearing shorts, potentially indicative of inter-ethnic tensions within Russia. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). TASS reports Russia extradited a person accused of violence against a 12-year-old girl to Latvia. (Source: ТАСС). «Зона СВО» shares a video related to the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov by Dagestani Wahhabis in the forest, emphasizing internal security threats. (Source: «Зона СВО»). Two people injured in a traffic accident on Naberezhnaya, Donetsk. (Source: Mash на Донбассе) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad spreads a video claiming to show "man-hunters" in Kovel (Ukraine) forcibly mobilizing individuals, reinforcing RUF narrative of forced mobilization. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Head of Magaramkent district utilities arrested in Dagestan following mass water poisoning. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Russian Ministry of Justice added Norwegian Helsinki Committee to list of "undesirable organizations". (Source: ASTRA) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Daughter of Starovoyt (likely the individual mentioned in previous report buried in Smolensk) expresses regret her father won't see her become a doctor or his younger daughter finish school, confirming a civilian casualty with possible public impact. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports over 60 foreigners in occupied DPR faced administrative and criminal cases for document forgery and drug use. (Source: Mash на Донбассе) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: Two maiors report conviction of an LGBT supporter in St. Petersburg who tried to create a religious community. (Source: Два майора) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones. This capability extends with new strike UAV groups moving towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, and now Odesa. RUF is capable of deep strikes on aviation plants (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant in Taganrog) and military production facilities (Kronstadt UAV production facility, Tula Instrument Design Bureau), and regional enterprises (Orlov Oblast). Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant indicates RUF vulnerability in artillery shell production but also highlights a potential target for UAF deep strikes. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting. Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains, including "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (155 UAVs shot down over Russia). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus. Sustained domestic defense industrial output. Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization. Developing homemade UGVs. Adapting with mobile drone launch platforms. Demonstrated capability for establishing wireless communication links in operational areas. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest an adapting approach to vehicle survivability. MoD Russia is demonstrating capability for rapid and secure communication deployment to forward assault detachments, enhancing tactical C2 and coordination. RUF demonstrates capability to destroy enemy UAV launch positions using TOS-1A Solntsepyok. ТАСС reports that Russian forces conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week, demonstrating continued capability for high-value precision strikes. RUF capabilities for ground operations in Lyman direction confirmed by video showing artillery strikes and infantry movement (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Старше Эдды). RUF capabilities for ground operations in Sumy Oblast are evident from claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews). WarGonzo's video claiming China's amphibious landing drill demonstrates RUF's interest in and propagation of information on other military powers' capabilities, which could be analyzed for potential emulation or strategic alignment. (Source: WarGonzo). MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification, showcasing its capabilities. (Source: MoD Russia). A video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike, indicating RUF's continued capability for destructive strikes. (Source: НгП раZVедка). "Два майора" demonstrates RUF's drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities in the Kupyansk direction. (Source: Два майора). RUF has the capability to use dry blood plasma for first aid on the front lines, indicating efforts to improve medical support. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF has capabilities for high-precision FPV drone strikes on dugouts. (Source: Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF demonstrated capability to track and target military vehicles with aerial assets. (Source: Воин DV) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF Defense Minister's inspections and focus on increasing small arms supply indicate commitment to enhancing ground combat capabilities. (Source: MoD Russia) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF has the capability to destroy pontoon crossings, as seen near Ivanivka. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF has satellite imagery access for BDA. (Source: Рыбарь) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is capable of destroying gas pipelines critical for military-industrial complexes, potentially through internal sabotage or deep strikes. (Source: РБК-Україна) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is employing glide bombs (OFZAB-500) for stronghold engagement. (Source: Fighterbomber) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is capable of destroying enemy crossings, as seen in occupied Vasylivka. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personal, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure and medical facilities confirms this. The new UAV groups reinforce intent to apply air pressure across multiple axes and target military-industrial infrastructure. Recent strikes on Odesa confirm RUF intent to target additional major Ukrainian cities from the Black Sea, particularly recruitment centers. The confirmed strike on Odesa TCC underscores RUF intent to specifically target Ukrainian military recruitment infrastructure, aiming to disrupt force generation. Strikes on medical facilities and maternity hospitals aim to maximize psychological impact and civilian casualties. Ballistic missile launch towards Vilkove indicates intent to continue long-range precision strikes against coastal targets. Budanov's statement about RUF intent to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reveals a new, aggressive operational objective aimed at territorial penetration. (Source: РБК-Україна). RUF intends to continue to target Ukrainian defense industrial complexes, as evidenced by the warning of an imminent strike on the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF intends to conduct psychological operations using non-explosive drone impacts to instill fear. RUF intends to destroy critical logistical and military infrastructure, such as pontoon crossings. (Source: Военкор Котенок) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use airpower to isolate and destroy UAF positions, as seen in the Malievka area. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Degrade RUF Military-Industrial Complex (asymmetric/reciprocal): UAF drone attacks in Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow Oblasts, and Beriev Aviation Plant indicate UAF intent to strike Russian military-industrial targets and supporting infrastructure as reciprocal action.
Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains & Breakthroughs: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border, and Kherson direction. They will attempt incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs. Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics. Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify.
Consolidation and Probing in Border Regions: RUF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka) and Kharkiv region (Sobolevka). Concurrently, they will conduct probing attacks in new directions, such as attempting to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to stretch UAF defenses.
Intensified Information Operations and Internal Focus: RUF will escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Promote narratives of Russian military heroism and inevitable victory. Exploit any perceived shifts in Western support (Trump's comments). RUF will continue to reinforce public narratives of "goodness" and "heroism" within their military and civilian structures. Lavrov's statement about Europe trying to "raise history for war with Russia" clearly signals intent to shape international discourse and portray Russia as a victim or defensive actor. RUF intends to amplify narratives of Ukrainian desertion and forced mobilization to degrade Ukrainian morale and international support. RUF intends to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies (e.g., "Zaluzhny is begging for expired missiles"). RUF will continue to reinforce narratives of Russian heroism and civilian support for the war, as seen with "Bryansk Field Day". RUF intends to promote its internal counter-intelligence successes. Peskov's statements on unacceptable foreign troop deployment near Russia's borders indicate an intent to project a strong defensive posture and deter further Western military aid or intervention (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF intends to use low willingness of criminals to join the front to portray Ukraine as facing severe manpower issues, thus undermining morale (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight perceived lack of enthusiasm among detained criminals to join the front, implying Ukrainian manpower crisis (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to counter narratives of US air defense effectiveness, questioning the S-400's performance (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalisation, possibly undermining the perceived threat of ongoing aerial attacks (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk, likely intended to support a narrative of Ukrainian perfidy and targeting civilians. (Source: ТАСС). Peskov's statement that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian" indicates an intent to portray Ukraine as a puppet and prolonging the war unnecessarily. (Source: ТАСС). RUF intends to highlight political statements that align with their narrative, such as Viktor Orban's comments on Hungary's non-involvement. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF intends to use images from Odesa to show perceived "objective control" by residents of drone strikes, which is a propaganda attempt to legitimize their attacks. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF intends to use symbolic gestures like the painting from Belgorod to reinforce narratives of resilience and victory. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to portray internal Ukrainian situations, such as civilian interactions at markets, in a way that suggests disarray or hardship, though the specific intent of the "Privoz" market image is unclear. (Source: Два майора). RUF will use information from international sources like NYT to bolster its narrative of strength and resolve, indicating an intent to influence global perception of its standing vis-à-vis the US. (Source: Операция Z). RUF will use civilian-oriented information from Russia, such as tick bites in Moscow region, to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will use internal corruption cases to showcase its anti-corruption efforts and reinforce a narrative of strong governance. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). RUF will use claims of UAF attempting to steal washing machines as propaganda to dehumanize Ukrainian soldiers and justify their actions. (Source: STERNENKO). RUF propaganda seeks to exploit existing historical grievances to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies, as evidenced by the call for Ukraine to recognize the Volyn massacre. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF intends to use internal Russian social tensions (e.g., ethnic clashes) to divert attention from the conflict or to portray internal challenges as managed. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). The message from Alex Parker Returns (If you have...) likely indicates an intent to recruit volunteers or solicit donations for the military, leveraging patriotic sentiment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will continue to highlight internal social support measures for military personnel and their families to boost morale and commitment. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF milbloggers will attempt to frame coercive mobilization tactics as legitimate or necessary. (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). RUF intends to leverage the image of the Russian boy discharged from the hospital in Sheremetyevo to project care and stability in Russia. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will exploit statements about US pressure on Europe to donate Patriot systems to create an impression of allied disunity. (Source: Kotsnews). RUF will emphasize historical events related to internal security threats (e.g., Dagestani Wahhabis) to reinforce a narrative of strong internal governance and counter-terrorism. (Source: «Зона СВО»). RUF intends to amplify issues in Western military equipment (e.g., F-35 issues) to undermine confidence in Western support. (Source: Басурин о главном) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to use routine civilian incidents (e.g., traffic accidents) in occupied territories to project normalcy and divert attention from military operations. (Source: Mash на Донбассе) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF intends to leverage claims of SBU Colonel's involvement in "Motorola" assassination and Kursk offensive to further demonize Ukrainian intelligence and justify its actions. (Source: Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF intends to propagate a narrative of "liquidation" of Ukrainian personnel, even if using pejorative terms like "naked migrant worker," to demoralize UAF and project dominance. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF intends to demonstrate strong internal governance by prosecuting officials involved in corruption, as evidenced by the arrest in Dagestan and the case against Timofeev. (Source: ТАСС, Colonelcassad) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF intends to demonstrate its commitment to counter-extremism and internal security by listing organizations as "undesirable." (Source: ASTRA, ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF intends to use civilian casualties, even those without direct military connection, to portray Ukraine as indiscriminate in its actions or to elicit sympathy for Russian citizens. (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.NEW: RUF intends to use agricultural production figures (e.g., potato production in Bryansk) to project economic resilience and normalcy, deflecting from the ongoing conflict. (Source: AV БогомаZ) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to monitor and leverage Ukrainian OSINT to their advantage, particularly DeepState maps. (Source: Воин DV) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF will use information about significant trade route shifts (Northern Sea Route) to project its geopolitical influence and highlight global economic reconfigurations. (Source: Басурин о главном) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to counter perceived US influence in former Soviet areas, as seen with Zangezur corridor. (Source: Рыбарь) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to show their military as well-equipped and effective. (Source: Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF intends to emphasize the human cost of Ukrainian actions (Oleshky airstrike). (Source: ТАСС) CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border, and Kherson direction. They will attempt incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs. Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics. Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify.
Air Pressure: Maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Odesa to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia, including the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant.
Targeting Recruitment: Explicitly target Ukrainian military recruitment and force generation infrastructure, as evidenced by the Odesa TCC strike.
Consolidation and Probing in Border Regions: RUF will attempt to consolidate claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka) and Kharkiv region (Sobolevka). Concurrently, they will conduct probing attacks in new directions, such as attempting to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to stretch UAF defenses.
Intensified Information Operations and Internal Focus: RUF will escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. They will exploit Western disunity and internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization, corruption). Concurrently, RUF will focus on internal security operations, counter-intelligence, and propaganda to maintain domestic stability and support for the conflict. They will highlight successes in internal investigations (e.g., Dagestan, Timofeev).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness: UAF remains in a defensive posture across most axes, actively repelling RUF ground assaults and conducting extensive air defense operations. UAF forces are adapting to RUF drone tactics with AI-powered interceptor drones. Tactical medicine training is being emphasized in Kharkiv. Ongoing efforts to procure and integrate new EW and drone assets are active. Internal support structures for veterans and families of POW/MIA are functioning. UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, and public information campaigns are ongoing to explain mobilization and legal procedures. Efforts to improve thermal autonomy in city hospitals indicate preparedness for sustained conflict. UAF forces are actively destroying RUF logistics and crossings.
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
Successes:
High rate of RUF aerial target interceptions over Kyiv (178/397 drones, 18 missiles).
Successful neutralization of 5 RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk.
Repelled numerous RUF ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kursk directions.
Reported destruction of numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system, Buk, Strela).
Liquidated high-value RUF targets, including Commander of 155th Marine Brigade Colonel Sergey Ilyin, Chief of Staff of 155th Marine Brigade Colonel Leonid Bashkardin, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Major General Mikhail Gudkov, Chief of Staff of Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, and a commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group (Captain Vladislav Yakovenko).
Successful drone strikes on Russian military-industrial targets (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Kronstadt UAV production facility, Tula defense enterprises, Beriev Aviation Plant, and an important gas pipeline).
Successful interdiction of a Shahed drone with an interceptor drone in Odesa.
Effective counter-battery fire and FPV drone operations (e.g., Dobropillia, Chasiv Yar).
Confirmed destruction of an enemy crossing in occupied Vasylivka.
Setbacks:
Significant civilian casualties (2 killed, 28 injured in Kyiv; 1 killed, 2 injured in Dnipropetrovsk; 9 killed, 10 injured in Donetsk on July 9; 7 killed, 9 injured in Donetsk on July 10; 9 injured in Kharkiv; 8 injured in Odesa, now 11 injured) and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure from protracted RUF aerial attacks.
RUF claimed capture of Zelena Dolyna (Donetsk) and Sobolevka (Kharkiv), and advancements in Sumy Oblast (Novonykolaivka, Bessalovka).
Reported SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv (if confirmed by UAF).
Ongoing internal investigations into corruption cases affecting UAF procurement and land privatization.
Damage to a horse stable in Odesa, impacting civilian livelihood.
Heavy flooding in Lviv and Lutsk, straining emergency services and impacting movement.
Reported UAF airstrike on Oleshky (Kherson Oblast) causing civilian casualties (RUF source).
Resource Requirements and Constraints:
Requirement: Urgent need for increased air defense interceptor munitions, especially for ballistic missile defense. Continued, accelerated delivery of modern SAM systems (Patriot, SAMP/T) and counter-UAS/EW systems. Sustained flow of Western military aid, particularly artillery shells and long-range precision fires. Continued financial and humanitarian support for reconstruction and civilian well-being.
Constraints: Air defense munition expenditure during protracted attacks. Combat exhaustion of frontline units. Potential manpower issues requiring military training for students. Challenges in combating corruption affecting military procurement. Resource allocation for humanitarian/disaster response (Lviv/Lutsk flooding) in addition to combat operations. The "Rerezerv+" app issues, if unresolved, could constrain efficient personnel management.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
RUF: Intensifying efforts to portray UAF as depleted (desertion claims, "forced mobilization"). Attempts to discredit Ukrainian leadership (Zaluzhny "begging for expired missiles"). Amplifying civilian casualties in Russia from UAF attacks to foster public anger and justify aggression. Claiming UAF targets children/elderly. Exploiting Western political statements (Trump's "important statement") for narrative advantage. Highlighting internal Russian "normalcy" (Bryansk Field Day, new Huawei tablet sales, Moscow Stock Exchange reopening, positive police stories). Showcasing internal anti-corruption efforts (Dagestan arrest, Timofeev case). Promoting "objective control" videos of drone strikes to legitimize attacks. Leveraging historical grievances (Volyn massacre) to sow discord between Ukraine and allies. Spreading narratives of Ukrainian soldiers attempting to loot (washing machine claim). Amplifying reports on Western military equipment issues (F-35). Projecting Russian strength and capabilities through military inspections and exercises. Portraying Ukraine as a puppet of the West ("Brussels pushing Kyiv to continue war until 'last Ukrainian'"). Circulating claims of UAF planting mines in money/toys/sweets to demonize Ukrainian forces. Exploiting internal Russian issues (Dagestan ethnic tensions, Swede deportation case) to divert attention or justify control.
UAF: Actively countering RUF disinformation. Emphasizing RUF war crimes and civilian casualties (Kharkiv maternity hospital, Odesa strike). Showcasing UAF military successes (RUF personnel liquidations, equipment destruction, air defense achievements, interceptor drone capabilities). Highlighting internal reforms and efforts to combat corruption. Promoting veteran rehabilitation and civilian support initiatives. Publicizing international diplomatic support and aid efforts (URC2025, Kellogg visit, SAMP/T discussions).
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
Ukraine: Civilian morale is likely strained by repeated, widespread aerial attacks, but resilience is evident in recovery and rebuilding efforts. Public support for the military remains strong, with continued fundraising for equipment. Internal investigations into corruption may impact public trust, but transparency in addressing them can mitigate negative effects.
Russia: Mixed signals. Propaganda aims to boost morale and foster national unity. Public support for the "SVO" is reinforced through payments to veterans and volunteer drives. However, reports of low willingness among criminals to fight, internal corruption in the MOD, nationwide payment system failures, and potential ethnic tensions suggest underlying societal strains and potential challenges to morale. Civilian casualties from UAF drone strikes are highlighted to galvanize support and anger.
International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
Ukraine: Strong international diplomatic support continues. Expected visit by Keith Kellogg (Trump's envoy) indicates potential for continued US military aid. Discussions on additional Patriot and SAMP/T systems are ongoing. Zelensky maintains high-level engagements with Western leaders. Ukraine's MFA is actively responding to foreign claims and engaging on ambassadorial rotations.
Russia: Lavrov's visit to North Korea signals continued efforts to build alternative alliances. Russia continues to engage on prisoner and body exchanges with Ukraine. Russia is revoking consent for the operation of the Polish Consulate in Kaliningrad, indicating escalating diplomatic tensions with Poland. Russia is also revising international treaties based on its new language policy. RUF uses international statements (French Chief of Staff, Trump's remarks) to shape its narrative.
Global: Continued Houthi maritime attacks in the Red Sea pose global economic and security concerns, which RUF may seek to exploit or emulate.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained Aerial Pressure: RUF will continue large-scale, protracted, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting critical infrastructure (energy, military production), military assets (TCCs, PVDs), and population centers across Ukraine, with a particular focus on saturating air defenses in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Odesa. This will involve high volumes of Shahed drones, coupled with ballistic and cruise missiles.
Attritional Ground Offensives: RUF will maintain high-tempo, attritional ground assaults in the Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk) and Kharkiv regions (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), aiming for incremental territorial gains through mass and disregard for casualties. The commitment of reserves (e.g., 83rd AAB) indicates an intent to push for tactical breakthroughs in these areas. Probing attacks and attempts to consolidate gains in Sumy Oblast will continue.
Deep Strikes into Russian Territory: UAF will likely continue to conduct reciprocal drone strikes against Russian military-industrial complex facilities, logistical hubs, and airfields in border regions and deeper into Russia (e.g., Moscow, Lipetsk, Tula, Khanty-Mansi AO), as seen with the recent gas pipeline incident.
Hybrid Warfare Intensification: RUF will escalate information warfare and propaganda, focusing on demoralizing UAF, undermining international support for Ukraine, and maintaining domestic support for the conflict. This will include amplifying narratives of Ukrainian manpower shortages, corruption, and Western abandonment. Attempts at internal subversion or targeted assassinations are also possible.
Focus on Specific Areas: RUF will attempt to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (as stated by Budanov) to open a new operational axis and stretch UAF resources. They will also prioritize efforts to destroy UAF crossings and logistical lines, as seen in occupied Vasylivka.
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis targeting Kharkiv and Dnipro: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod and Kursk, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves. Simultaneously, a concerted effort to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast could lead to a strategic breakthrough, threatening critical industrial and logistical hubs. This would be coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas to fix UAF forces on that axis.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas with Reserve Commitment: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. This would be supported by overwhelming air power and a disregard for personnel losses ("human wave" tactics).
Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack.
Strategic Maritime Blockade: RUF attempts a more robust maritime blockade of Odesa and other Black Sea ports, possibly using naval assets and increased mine-laying, severely impacting Ukraine's economy and international trade.
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
Damage Control & Humanitarian Response: Continue immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lipetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Odesa, and Donetsk Oblast. Prioritize civilian fatalities and injuries, including those trapped under rubble in Oleshky.
Air Defense & ISR Alert: Maintain high air defense alert for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by RUF UAV groups towards all Ukrainian oblasts, especially Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and Odesa. Prioritize response to any new ballistic missile threat. Task ISR to verify RUF claims of territorial gains and assess damage to Russian military-industrial targets. Focus on confirming any further RUF ground advances in Sumy Oblast.
Information Counter-Offensive: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives of Ukrainian weakness. Proactively highlight RUF war crimes and civilian casualties, especially children. Actively counter RUF narratives celebrating strikes on TCCs and portraying Ukrainian personnel as looters. Counter any RUF claims regarding UAF actions in Oleshky.
SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
Air Defense Allocation & Reinforcement: Make critical decisions on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions to protect high-value targets and population centers. Expedite delivery and integration of newly committed Patriot systems. Deploy additional counter-UAS and EW assets to frontline sectors. Prioritize delivery of additional SAMP/T systems.
Frontline Defense & Rotation: Continue to repel RUF ground pressure. Commanders on the Kramatorsk and Kharkiv axes should implement contingency plans for the rotation of frontline units to mitigate combat exhaustion. Pre-position engineering assets to counter potential envelopment. Prioritize defense against any RUF push towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Secure and reinforce positions in Sumy Oblast following RUF claims of capture.
Internal Security & Logistics: Continue investigations into corruption cases and implement reforms to improve supply chain integrity. Support the visit of Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, ensuring security and maximizing diplomatic outcomes. Address the "Rerezerv+" app status. Continue police operations against criminal groups undermining UAF operations. Monitor DBR searches into corruption cases. Review and secure UAF fiber optic communication infrastructure.
Diplomatic Response: Prepare a nuanced diplomatic response to Polish demands regarding the Volyn massacre, balancing national interests with allied unity.
MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
Aid Effectiveness & RUF Adaptation: Monitor the operational impact of new US and EU aid deliveries. Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their own drone/counter-UAV technology developments.
Strategic Assessment: Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure. Analyze the implications of the SBU Colonel assassination and other high-value target liquidations on RUF and UAF internal security and C2. Re-evaluate overall RUF intent and capabilities based on Budanov's statement regarding the Dnipropetrovsk advance. Assess the implications of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" disposition on RUF naval power projection. Continue to monitor for any new deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets, particularly gas pipelines, and their impact on RUF VPC. Assess the impact of RUF's new state language policy on internal dynamics and occupied territories.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Ukrainian oblasts. Specific impact of UAF drone strikes on Russian military-industrial facilities (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant, Tula Instrument Design Bureau, Kronstadt UAV production facility, Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise," Orsk Mechanical Plant, "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, gas pipeline in Langepas). Capabilities and launch methods for alleged sea-launched drones used in the Odesa attack. Full BDA on the destroyed gas pipeline.
CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base. Analyze flight patterns and track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Conduct BDA for precise damage assessment and production impact. Investigate alleged sea-launch platforms and methods. Monitor further developments from the "Dronnitsa" meeting. Conduct forensic analysis on the gas pipeline incident to determine cause and origin of attack.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense. Specific delivery timelines for new Patriot and SAMP/T systems. How will the newly launched Kyiv drone interception system integrate and impact overall ADM effectiveness and consumption?
CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements. Monitor the initial effectiveness and challenges of the new Kyiv drone interception system.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Territorial Claims:
GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded, or large-scale desertion figures), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Zelena Dolyna, Mirny and Voskresenka, Novonykolaivka in Sumy, Sobolevka in Kharkiv, Kamenskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Bessalovka in Sumy), precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes, claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles, alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination and the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko. Verification of the VDV cadet killing a commander report. Confirmation of the specific impact of the Odesa TCC strike and any civilian casualties/collateral damage related to it. Verification of the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines. Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv. Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight. Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust. Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. Assess the impact of RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and key supply routes near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. Verify the impact of the drone strike shown by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС near Chasiv Yar. Assess the veracity and implications of the Alex Parker Returns photo message (If you have...). Assess any broader implications of the reported interrogation and threat to a serviceman. Verify the extent of the impact of the nationwide payment system failure in Russia on military procurement. Verify the claims of forced mobilization and "man-hunters" in Kovel. Verify if the non-explosive Shahed impact in Odesa indicates a new tactic or a failure. Verify impact of F-35 operational issues on Western aid to Ukraine. Verify destruction of the pontoon crossing near Ivanivka. Verify RUF claims regarding the impact of DeepState maps on UAF operations. Verify the extent of damage and casualties from the reported UAF airstrike on Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. Verify the claim of a Ukrainian soldier neutralizing an enemy in hand-to-hand combat.
CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination.
Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry & Demobilization:
GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry. What are the factors contributing to the extremely low demobilization rate? What are the implications of reported fraud against "SVO" fighters and the impact of public pressure on mobilization issues? What is the impact of the new one-time payments for SVO participants in Crimea on recruitment and retention? What are the broader implications of alleged threats by interrogators to servicemen? What are the implications of over 60 foreigners in occupied DPR facing administrative/criminal cases for document forgery and drug use?
CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes. Investigate fraud cases affecting military personnel. Monitor reports of new incentives for military service.
UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes. What is the overall impact of the "Армія+" survey on military efficiency and morale? What are the implications of the scheme to sell fake medical certificates for mobilization evasion? What is the impact of tax exemptions for mobilized private entrepreneurs on UAF force generation? What is the full impact of the criminal group liquidating, especially on forged mobilization documents? What is the impact of the suspicion against a Member of Parliament for facilitating privatization of forest land?
CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units. Investigate the scale of fake medical certificate schemes. Monitor ongoing police and DBR investigations related to corruption impacting UAF.
Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US, UK, German, Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems. What are the specific implications of Trump's statements and potential US policy shifts? What is the projected timeline for initial deliveries and operational deployment of newly resumed French SCALP missiles to Ukraine, and what is the projected rate of production? What is the impact of the proposed EU floating price cap on Russian oil? What is the full scope and impact of US commitment to "American drone dominance" on future aid and technological transfer? What are the specific conditions or caveats to UK's readiness to send troops to Ukraine for a potential ceasefire? What are the specific demands from the US regarding European Patriot donations?
CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment. Monitor international media and diplomatic channels for further details on US policy shifts and aid commitments, including the specifics of the "Coalition of the Willing." Monitor official statements regarding future Ukraine-US meetings.
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, suppression of dissent, Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports, local political/cultural controversies, and alleged misuse of military assets by high-ranking officials) are diverting significant resources from military operations. What is the full C2 impact of the recent high-level RUF casualties in Kursk and the liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov on the affected units, particularly the 155th Marine Brigade? What is the impact of the FSB operation in Bryansk on UAF drone capabilities and Russian internal security? What are the implications of the humanitarian issue involving a Russian family in Sweden facing deportation to Tajikistan? What are the broader geopolitical implications of Turkey's alleged victory over the PKK for Russian influence in the Middle East and Caucasus? What is the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod? What is the scope and duration of water outages in occupied Lugansk and their impact on local population and RUF operations? What are the broader implications of corruption cases within the Russian MoD (e.g., Timofeev prosecution, Belgorod defense structures) for RUF logistics and public trust? What is the current operational status of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" and its final disposition? What is the impact of a potential ban on gasoline exports on domestic energy supply and military logistics? What is the strategic significance of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF media? What is the internal impact of the "Revolt-center" incident in Syktyvkar on domestic dissent? What are the implications of the declining ability of Russian citizens to purchase medicines? What is the nature and scale of internal ethnic tensions within Russia? What is the impact of the new state language policy on internal cohesion and potential for dissent among non-Russian ethnic groups? What are the implications of the closure of the Polish Consulate in Kaliningrad? What are the details of the extradition of the accused to Latvia? What is the extent of the impact of the nationwide payment system failure in Russia on military procurement and broader economic stability? What is the significance of the 9-year anniversary of the execution of Lieutenant Magomed Nurbagandov for internal security and counter-terrorism narratives? What is the impact of dry blood plasma application on RUF combat casualty care? What is the influence of Defense Minister Belousov's inspections on troop morale and operational efficiency? What is the full context and implication of the "naked migrant worker" FPV drone strike video for RUF propaganda and internal messaging? What are the implications of the listing of the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable organization"? What are the broader implications of the civilian casualty (Starovoyt's daughter's comments) on Russian public sentiment? What is the impact of the alleged "diversion" in the Russian Social Fund? What is the current assessment of the unidentified "Ruslan" cargo plane over Kyiv? What are the implications of the conviction of an LGBT supporter in St. Petersburg on internal human rights and international relations?
CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts. HUMINT and SIGINT on affected RUF units to gauge C2 disruption and subsequent operational changes. Monitor legal proceedings related to corruption in the MoD. Prioritize IMINT on "Admiral Kuznetsov." Monitor any economic impacts of fuel export bans. Assess geopolitical implications of Chinese military activities. Monitor internal dissent and related actions. Monitor reports on social and health issues. Analyze RUF propaganda response to the "naked migrant worker" video.
Impact of Extreme Weather on Ukrainian Infrastructure & Operations:
GAP: Detailed assessment of the damage and humanitarian impact of severe flooding in Lviv, Lutsk, and Pavlohrad Oblasts. What is the current capacity of emergency services and how will it affect resource allocation?
CR: IMINT, OSINT (local news, social media), and HUMINT from affected regions and emergency services. Assess impact on key transportation routes and critical infrastructure.
