Sitrep 2025-07-11 07:32:06

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 110730Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kyiv Oblast: RUF concluded a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours. Casualties have risen to two (2) killed and twenty-eight (28) injured. Kyiv City suffered significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium and residential buildings. Vatican Embassy also reported damage. Firefighting operations are concluded. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes were temporarily changed but movement restored. New RUF UAV groups were moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. Post-attack, rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris. NEW: UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. Aggressor struck Pokrovska Hromada, Synelnykivskyi Raion, with UAVs, damaging an agricultural enterprise and causing a fire. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons in Synelnykivskyi Raion. NEW: UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area, potentially acting as a spotter for RUF attack assets, and UAF means are engaged to shoot it down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in Yenakiieve. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske, employing "human wave" tactics. The risk of a tactical breakthrough in this sector is HIGH. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortified positions and basements used by RUF in destroyed buildings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. Enemy forces attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations; SIGINT corroborates degraded morale and combat effectiveness in forward Russian units. Enemy has committed operational reserves, including elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade moving towards Vovchansk. TASS reports more than 10 major UAF attacks repelled near Bohuslavka. Oleg Syniehubov reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv City and 10 settlements over the past day. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City): Nine (9) injured in Kharkiv after night attack. Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility. RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. Maternity hospital affected. ASTRA reports nine people injured in night attacks on Saltivskyi district, including mothers and newborn children from a maternity hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi, and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down. Initial reports of significant fire at a power substation (TETs) were confirmed by Operatyvnyi ZSU video, but the governor now claims the fire was not related to a drone attack. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Smolensk Oblast, Russian Federation: Three (3) UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by air defense forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. Acting Mayor of Sumy reports RUF drone attacks on Sumy suburbs, with no casualties. Russian forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). A 48-year-old man was injured in a RUF attack on Zaporizhzhia Raion. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. NEW: Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an alert (🚨УВАГА🚨). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons held a meeting in Voznesensk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. A group of RUF UAVs from Sumy Oblast is moving through Terny and Krolevets towards Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports groups of RUF strike UAVs in Mena, Olishivka, and Oster districts of Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace, indicating immediate threat. NEW: UAF Air Force reports a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions. New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports due to drone activity. MoD Russia claims 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. MoD Russia reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region. Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and will make an important statement on Russia on July 14. ASTRA reports that Pukovo Airport has temporarily suspended operations. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow and Russian regions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims 155 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian PVO overnight. WarGonzo shares a "Frontline summary." Kotsnews shares video of an award ceremony for "Assault Troopers." Север.Реалии confirms 155 UAVs shot down over Russia, two people killed. Lavrov declined to comment on Rubio's statements. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. NEW: Военкор Котенок reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian territory overnight, including 1 over Penza, 1 over Tula, 1 over Orel, 19 over Bryansk, 1 over Rostov, 1 over Kaluga, 11 over Moscow, 1 over Voronezh, 1 over Kursk, 1 over Lipetsk, and 1 over Ryazan. This confirms widespread UAF drone activity into Russian territory. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. TASS reports Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stating UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast are "successfully repelled." TASS reports 41,000 apartments and 14,000 damaged vehicles restored. Restoration in Repyakhovka and Vyazovoye cannot begin due to proximity to the border. More than 400 social facilities damaged. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calls Gladkov. Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly. NEW: TASS reports a resident of Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, died due to a UAF ammunition strike. ASTRA also confirms one person killed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. Mayor of Taganrog reports drone debris fell on the Beriev Aviation Plant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed. 19 enemy fixed-wing UAVs detected and destroyed overnight. MoD Russia reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 19 over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained two residents for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. New reporting indicates successful maritime attacks by Houthi movement on "MAGIC SEAS" and "ETERNITY C" vessels in the Red Sea. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast, with means engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports group of strike UAVs near Odesa in Black Sea. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) in Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). New image shows tactical map for Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction and Grigorievka. "Сливочный каприз" shows a map and drone footage related to Krasny Liman - Zelena Dolyna. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. Enemy forces have increased the tempo of probing attacks and localized assaults, assessed as a supporting effort. New image depicts "Pokrovsko-Mirnohradskoye direction" map. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that in the area of responsibility of the "Spartan" brigade, Russians do not abandon attempts to advance. TASS claims the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov is effectively in a "fire bag". CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault involving a "Tsar-tank." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on a UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced and lifted an air danger regime. RUF reports a UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. One person confirmed killed, one injured. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports burning production facilities of a major agro-holding after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports four people injured in a Ukrainian drone strike in Kursk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow. Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. MoD Russia reports 11 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Moscow region overnight. Flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport lifted. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow. NEW: Новости Москвы reports forecasted peak heat of +36°C today. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." Additionally, Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. RUF KABs reported on Kupyansk direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. Bastrykin ordered a report on the car accident with a minibus. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Red Sea: Unverified RUF media report with video claims maritime attack on vessels 'MAGIC SEAS' and 'ETERNITY C' by "people in slippers," implying Houthi involvement. This highlights the growing threat of USVs and ballistic missiles against maritime targets, a capability that RUF could attempt to emulate or exploit. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Syberia, Russian Federation: Alex Parker Returns refers to Yugra as "homeland of Uzbeks" in a video, hinting at internal ethnic tensions/disputes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Syktyvkar, Russian Federation: City court released Darya Chernysheva, director of "Revolt-center," under travel restrictions for "foreign agent" evasion charges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Novoseklovske Direction (RUF Map): RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map displaying military movements and territorial control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zakarpattia Oblast: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was beaten to death during mobilization efforts in Zakarpattia. This is currently an unverified claim, but if true, could escalate diplomatic tensions. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Tula Oblast, Russian Federation: Residents report a large number of explosions. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast due to UAV attack. "Два майора" reports one injured, 13 drones shot down over Tula Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a loud morning near the Tula Instrument Design Bureau. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Air Force Alert: UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. UAF Air Force reports a UAV on northern Kyiv Oblast moving southwest, and a UAV threat in Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Odesa Oblast from Black Sea. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV in Brahin, Belarus, heading southwest. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Verolyubovka): RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Video provided by TASS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone reportedly attacked the Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, which manufactures MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-29K/KUB, and MiG-29M/M2 fighters. Video shows a fiery explosion. ASTRA shares photo message about the UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Leningrad Oblast, Russian Federation (Pulkovo Airport): Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ASTRA confirms temporary suspension for 08:45 to 09:45 MSK. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): TASS reports the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung suggests Ukraine has two ways to avoid complete defeat, both involving some form of retreat. NEW: Север.Реалии reports BBC confirmed 118,000 Russian deaths and 523 foreign deaths in Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Residential Areas): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared aerial footage of damaged residential buildings, suggesting recent combat or strikes in urban areas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Ukraine (General Losses): UAF General Staff reports a total of 1040 Russian personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF losses. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" RUF personnel. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Fiber Optic Cables): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photo messages titled "UAF Fiber Optics," showing product labels for fiber optic cables. This is likely intelligence on UAF communication infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kazakhstan: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a video of an individual walking in Kazakhstan with anti-Putin graffiti, indicating anti-RUF sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation: Глеб Никитин shares photos of city landscaping and monuments, indicating efforts to showcase normalcy. NEW: Глеб Никитин shares photos of "Olenya Luna" (Deer Moon) over Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin, again unrelated to military operations but promoting normalcy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Metro: The Office of the Prosecutor General released a video on "Kyiv Metro: tunnel destruction between Demiivska and Lybidska – it's about irresponsibility," which suggests an ongoing internal investigation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donbas (General): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Bobrytsia): NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast, with photo evidence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports searches are being conducted on ex-minister Kubrakov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality. Severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), causing localized damage. Electricity deficit due to heat. NEW: Moscow forecasts peak heat of +36°C, which could apply to neighboring areas impacting operations.
Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and strains emergency services.
Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis.
Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11.
Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines.
Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
Kursk Oblast: UAV attack resulted in fires at production facilities of a major agro-holding.
Lipetsk Oblast: UAV threat reported by local governor for Elets and Eletskiy district. UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing fire.
Belgorod Oblast: Proximity to the border with Ukraine is preventing reconstruction efforts in some villages.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage to an agricultural enterprise and fire in Pokrovska Hromada due to UAV strike.
General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF:
- Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Western Ukraine. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. UAF Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. All incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace and a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground advances on critical axes in Donbas, Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, a Strela anti-aircraft missile system, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone targeting and neutralizing an enemy combatant near a damaged building. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade conducting amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications in destroyed buildings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting, and casualty management in Kyiv (28 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks. STERNENKO reports 40.1 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. Zelenskyy met with Bulgarian PM, EU Commission President, and Polish Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF:
- Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. RUF MoD reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region, and 19 over Bryansk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports RUF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise in Pokrovska Hromada. RUF forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy attack UAVs on Odesa. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC in Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast. Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards Vovchansk. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, employing "human wave" tactics. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis. "Операция Z" reports Russian forces are advancing towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in the Huliaipole direction. TASS reports UAF was forced to retreat from Zelena Dolyna. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims ВКС РФ destroyed two UAF platoons in Dnipropetrovsk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options. ASTRA reports that only just over 70 war participants have been demobilized in the past year. "Два майора" is seen appealing for donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of humanitarian aid delivery by Russian forces. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a military award ceremony for "For the Assault" sign, acknowledging battlefield valor and possibly boosting morale/recruitment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. TASS reports an individual wanted for trading personal data of Russians has been extradited from Indonesia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Voronezh official, Gennady Shvyrkov, was detained for fraud against "SVO" fighters. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones. This capability extends with new strike UAV groups moving towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and now Odesa. RUF is capable of deep strikes on aviation plants (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant in Taganrog) and military production facilities (Kronstadt UAV production facility, Tula Instrument Design Bureau). Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting. Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains, including "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (155 UAVs shot down over Russia). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus. Sustained domestic defense industrial output. Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization. Developing homemade UGVs. Adapting with mobile drone launch platforms. Demonstrated capability for establishing wireless communication links in operational areas. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest an adapting approach to vehicle survivability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personal, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure and medical facilities confirms this. The new UAV groups reinforce intent to apply air pressure across multiple axes and target military-industrial infrastructure. Recent strikes on Odesa confirm RUF intent to target additional major Ukrainian cities from the Black Sea.
- Degrade RUF Military-Industrial Complex (asymmetric/reciprocal): UAF drone attacks in Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow Oblasts, and Beriev Aviation Plant indicate UAF intent to strike Russian military-industrial targets and supporting infrastructure as reciprocal action.
- Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains & Breakthroughs: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas and Kharkiv, aiming for tactical advances and consolidation. Commitment of 83rd AAB signals intent for significant momentum or a new thrust. RUF operations in Huliaipole direction suggest intent to probe or fix UAF defenses. TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag" indicates intent to encircle and eliminate UAF forces.
- Disrupt UAF Logistics & C2: Continue targeting UAF rear areas, supply points, engineering equipment, and rotation attempts. Actively seeking to destroy Starlink equipment.
- Subvert Ukrainian Internal Security: Alleged SBU Colonel assassination demonstrates an intent to cause internal instability. Unverified claim of Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization could be intended to stir ethnic tensions. Alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF intent to conduct acts of terrorism.
- Intensify Information Warfare: Sustain and escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Promote narratives of Russian military heroism and inevitable victory. Exploit any perceived shifts in Western support (Trump's comments). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border, and Kherson direction. They will maintain increased frequency, volume, and protracted complexity of aerial strikes on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and now Odesa to saturate air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia. Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. The use of mobile drone launch platforms will complicate detection. Expect continued UAV activity in border regions of Russia. Continued use of FPV drones, updated Lancet loitering munitions, KAB/KARs, and precision missiles for tactical and deep strikes. Increased information operations. Persistent reconnaissance activities. NEW: RUF will continue targeting UAF unmanned ground systems and will attempt to encircle and destroy the UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis): Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- MDCOA (Chemical Weapon False Flag): RUF executes a false flag chemical attack on a civilian area or on its own forces, using recent claims of UAF using poisonous substances as a direct pretext. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF:
- Aerial Attack Integration: Adapting by extending the duration and integrating ballistic missiles with Shahed drones in multi-vector, immediate follow-up attacks to overwhelm air defenses. Now explicitly claiming strikes on military-industrial complex targets. Introduction of mobile launch platforms for Geran drones. Demonstrated fielding of updated Lancet loitering munitions. Extending UAV strike vectors to include Lipetsk, Tula, and now Odesa. New deep strike capability against aviation production plants in Russia (Lukhovitsy, Beriev).
- Ground Tactics: Adapting by committing operational reserves (83rd AAB) to critical sectors. Employing "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Increased focus on exploiting perceived UAF weaknesses. Adapting to target UAF engineering assets and rotation attempts. Implementing "clearing operations" with combined special forces, FPV drones, and artillery. Actively targeting Starlink stations. Adapting to establish wireless communication links in damaged urban environments. RUF is deploying NRTK "Courier" robots for cargo delivery.
- Targeting Precision: Confirmed adaptation for precision long-range strikes against UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs) using Iskander missiles. Systematic targeting of UAF personnel and firing points.
- Information Operations: Adapting by providing more detailed, visual "frontline briefings" and quickly countering international criticism. Producing counter-propaganda videos. Explicitly linking civilian casualties to Ukrainian units. TASS is actively reporting on UAF UAV shootdowns over Russian territory and associated casualties, and countering claims of UAF breakthroughs into Belgorod. TASS is now actively reporting on Trump's statements to influence international discourse. Milbloggers disseminate daily operational updates. Intensifying narratives about Ukraine abandoning its wounded soldiers. Promoting narratives of Russian military heroism.
- Internal Security: Enhanced counter-intelligence operations. Management of internal ethnic/political tensions. The internal incident involving a VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level.
- Force Generation: Significant adaptation with the full operationalization of the electronic conscription registry for forced mobilization. Maintaining low demobilization rates. Continued public calls for donations.
- Resource Leveraging: Increased reliance on public donations for tactical equipment. Proposing alternative, cheaper air defense solutions.
- Tactical Innovation: Development of homemade UGVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF:
- Air Defense Resilience: Demonstrating rapid and sustained response to the prolonged, integrated multi-vector aerial attacks. Actively seeking more Patriot systems through international partners. Discussing domestic development of Patriot analogues. Zelenskyy claims solution found to shoot down "almost all" UAVs. UAF claims neutralization of all incoming UAVs in Mykolaiv area. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. UAF drone activity resulted in temporary suspension of Pulkovo Airport operations. UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv.
- Decentralized Defense: Strategic adaptation through the experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations.
- Logistical Streamlining: DeepState reports on Brave1 Market and DOT-Chain Defence platforms for faster drone/EW procurement. Actively fundraising for anti-thermal cloaks.
- Tactical Engagement: Continued effective use of FPV drones. Successful urban combat and clearing operations by special forces. Successful destruction of RUF air defense and armored systems. Use of drone drops against RUF rear positions. Commanders on the Kramatorsk axis are advised to prepare contingency plans for troop rotation. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade conducting amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications.
- Information Counter-Offensive: Proactive and transparent public reporting on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts and casualties. Rapidly debunking RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns. Highlighting UAF air defense effectiveness and securing of additional Patriot systems. Showcasing UAF military successes. Emphasizing international support and financial aid. Utilizing social media to boost morale. NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. NEW: RBC-Ukraine shares images with the caption "No one is waiting for you in Ukraine," a propaganda message.
- Resource Mobilization: Successfully leveraging public donations for tactical drones and unit sustainment. Securing significant international financial and military aid.
- Internal Governance: Ongoing adaptation and focus on internal anti-corruption and law enforcement. Proactive addressing of military medicine issues. NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Kyiv Oblast. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF:
- Deep Strike Munitions: Sustained, high-volume, multi-domain deep strike capabilities indicate robust production/procurement for ballistic missiles and Shahed drones. New Su-34 deliveries support continued KAB/KAR use. Development and deployment of UMPB D-30SN glide bombs. Introduction of updated Lancet loitering munitions.
- Tactical Supply Chain: Evidence of tactical shortfalls, with continued reliance on public donations for certain equipment. However, sustained ground operations imply functioning supply lines for ammunition and fuel. Recruitment of detainees and electronic conscription aim to address manpower sustainment. "Старше Эдды" comments on high anti-aircraft missile consumption. Colonelcassad shows a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams, indicating innovation in logistics.
- Internal Challenges: Persistent internal issues (forest fires, oil spills, water poisoning, banking failures, internal crime, corruption) could strain long-term resource allocation. Steam platform experiencing outages. The VDV cadet killing a commander highlights potential internal morale/discipline issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF:
- Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE CONSTRAINT. High expenditure rate from prolonged, multi-vector and high-volume RUF aerial attacks places extreme strain on interceptor stockpiles. Recent aid announcements are crucial but require consistent delivery.
- Medical/Emergency Services: Under strain due to increased civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. UAF General Staff acknowledges "problematic issues" in military medicine.
- Financial Sustainment: Continued critical requirement for external financial support. Receipt of EU tranches and Norwegian aid.
- Tactical Equipment: Continued reliance on external (volunteer/donor) support for tactical drones and power solutions. NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared photos of "UAF Fiber Optics," which may represent a domestic production or procurement for communication.
- CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Force Rotation & Rest: Critical need for contingency plans for troop rotation and rest, especially in Chasiv Yar.
- CONSTRAINT: Digital Infrastructure Reliability: "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights vulnerability.
- CONSTRAINT: Internal Public Safety: Localized incidents like the knife attack on a doctor in Zaporizhzhia indicate underlying social issues. The accusation against a UAF lieutenant colonel and Kyiv Metro tunnel destruction suggest internal integrity and infrastructure constraints. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain, protracted aerial strikes. Effective tactical C2 for frontline operations and drone use. Demonstrates effective C2 for counter-intelligence, internal security, and information operations. Evidence of C2 for regional military cooperation. Strong C2 for forced manpower generation. Commitment of 83rd AAB shows effective C2 for reserve deployment. Daily operational summaries from milbloggers suggest coordinated information dissemination. C2 appears effective in adapting to new mobile drone launch platforms. Colonelcassad's video on 25th CAA establishing a wireless link indicates C2 efforts to improve tactical communications. The successful liquidation of UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka further highlights effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. However, the VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calling Gladkov, demonstrates high-level C2 engagement. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows C2 for award ceremonies. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, managing local civilian emergency responses, and conducting BDA. Effective tactical C2 for frontline situational awareness, combat operations, and drone deployment. Demonstrates effective C2 for internal governance and for leveraging international financial and military support. Strategic communication C2 is strong. Proactive C2 for addressing military medicine challenges. Advising commanders on contingency plans for troop rotation indicates effective adaptation within C2. Zelenskyy's continuous engagement with international partners demonstrates strong diplomatic C2. Air Force updates on drone activity confirm active monitoring and C2. The prompt reporting and subsequent lifting of the ballistic missile threat demonstrate effective early warning and C2. DeepState's "Top-10 units" recognition system suggests effective internal C2. The prompt report and neutralization claim for UAVs in Mykolaiv suburbs shows effective C2 for local air defense. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages. NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Kyiv Oblast. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a critical and active air defense network defending against complex, multi-vector, and prolonged RUF aerial attacks across the country, especially in Kyiv and Western Oblasts. New RUF strike UAV groups targeting Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will stretch this network further. Frontline units are holding defensive positions and conducting active engagements across multiple axes. Maintaining capability for deep drone strikes into Russia and logistics interdiction. Southern Defense Forces are postured for active defense. Posture of decentralized air defense through volunteer groups. UAF special forces are postured for urban combat. Air Force is on high alert for ballistic missile threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and sustained air defense responses to the intensified, prolonged Kyiv attack. Emergency services at high readiness for civilian response. Continuous tactical medical training enhances combat readiness. Units actively engaged across multiple front lines, facing high attrition and potential exhaustion, particularly in Chasiv Yar. Personnel welfare and rehabilitation programs ongoing. Enhanced procurement processes for drones/EW systems aim to maintain tactical readiness. Readiness for deep strike operations into Russian territory is maintained. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Air Defense: High effectiveness with 178/415 targets shot down during Kyiv attack. Successful interceptions over Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy. Ukraine securing commitments for more Patriot systems. Zelenskyy claims Ukraine has found a solution to shoot down "almost all" UAVs. UAF claims neutralization of all incoming UAVs in Mykolaiv area. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. UAF drone activity resulted in temporary suspension of Pulkovo Airport operations. UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Deep Strikes: Successful drone strike on Penza power substation (initial report, now conflicting). Continued deep strike attempts into Moscow. Air danger regime in Lipetsk lifted. Successful drone strikes on Russian logistics and RUF rear positions. Successful drone strikes on production facilities of a major agro-holding in Kursk Oblast. ASTRA reports a large number of explosions in Tula Oblast. UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Attrition of RUF Forces: UAF General Staff reports significant RUF losses (1040 personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025, 2 tanks, 7 AFVs, 23 artillery systems, and 14 cruise missiles). Successful strikes by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Destruction of numerous RUF high-value equipment on Zaporizhzhia front. Repelling 14 Russian assaults in Kursk/Sumy. Successful FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia. UAF soldier liquidated Russian motorcyclist and captured bike in Pokrovsk direction. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations in Kharkiv direction. SBS/74th ORB destroyed a Buk and Strela anti-aircraft missile system and other armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- International Aid: Resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems. UK agreement to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles. Finland provided 300 million euros for recovery. Netherlands provided 300 million euros.
- Internal Governance: Anti-corruption and counter-sabotage operations. Law enforcement successes. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages. NEW: The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Kyiv Oblast. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Direct hits on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv resulting in 2 killed, 28 injured. Civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk (1 killed), Zaporizhzhia (2 injured), Donetsk (9 killed, 10 injured). 11 Kharkiv settlements struck. Explosions reported in Chuhuiv, with two private households destroyed. Hospital attacked in Chuhuiv, 3 injured. Night attack on Chuhuivskyi district resulted in 7 UAV hits. Strikes on Kharkiv city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility in Kharkiv City, with 9 injured. One man injured in Kharkiv. Two people injured in Kharkiv. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district. Three injured in Saltyvskyi district, Kharkiv. Maternity hospital affected in Kharkiv. UN report of 232 civilians killed in Ukraine in June. Civilian killed and one injured in Lipetsk Oblast. A 48-year-old man injured in Zaporizhzhia Raion. Agricultural enterprise damaged and fire caused by RUF UAV strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast. Four people injured in Kursk Oblast. Explosions reported in Odesa due to drone attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: Assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Public safety incident in Zaporizhzhia. Potential new threat from alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia.
- Resource Strain: "Rerezerv+" app outage impacting personnel management. Slowdown in some public drone fundraising. Electricity deficit in Kyiv due to heat. High risk of tactical breakthrough in Chasiv Yar due to friendly unit exhaustion. Over 100 FPV drones launched by enemy on Dobropillia could indicate increased FPV threat. TASS reports UAF retreat from Zelena Dolyna. Kyiv Metro tunnel destruction suggests internal infrastructure issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Air Defense Munitions: Immediate and sustained supply of interceptors due to high expenditure rate from prolonged, multi-vector attacks. Delivery timelines for Patriot systems are key.
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Medical and Emergency Response: Immediate surge capacity for medical personnel and emergency services in affected urban areas. Managing increased casualties (Kyiv, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Lipetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Tula, Kursk, Odesa).
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Financial Sustainment: Continued external financial support to maintain non-military operations and long-term recovery. STERNENKO's urgent night appeal highlights immediate financial needs.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and Repair: Resources for rapid BDA, recovery, and repair of damaged civilian and critical infrastructure.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Tactical Drones/Power Equipment/Protection: Consistent supply of various drone types and associated power solutions. Immediate need for anti-thermal protection. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared photos of "UAF Fiber Optics," implying a focus on communication infrastructure.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Force Rotation & Rest: Critical need for contingency plans for troop rotation and rest, especially in Chasiv Yar.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Counter-UAS/EW: Deployment of additional Counter-UAS and EW assets, particularly to Chasiv Yar.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Engineering & Obstacle Materials: Pre-positioning engineering and obstacle-laying assets in Kharkiv.
CONSTRAINT: Public Fundraising Fluctuation: Potential slowdown in public donations for certain equipment.
CONSTRAINT: Digital Infrastructure Reliability: "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights vulnerability.
CONSTRAINT: Internal Public Safety: Localized incidents like the knife attack on a doctor in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: Immediately and widely amplifying "Kyiv got what it deserved" narratives, visually showcasing damage, and downplaying severity. Claiming strikes on Kyiv's military-industrial complex and airfields. Propagating highly inflammatory and false chemical weapons claims. Fabricating UAF desertion claims, and claims of UAF abandoning wounded soldiers. Accusing UAF of attacking civilians and highlighting restoration efforts in Belgorod. Highlighting claimed military successes. Using alleged SBU Colonel assassination to portray internal Ukrainian instability. Attempting to externalize blame for the assassination. Leveraging captured UAF POWs for propaganda. Amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as divine retribution. Highlighting internal Russian stability. Portraying Western aid as insufficient or escalatory. Russian state media like TASS and MoD Russia are actively reporting on Ukrainian UAV shootdowns over Russian territory. TASS reports Trump's statement that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and his upcoming statement on Russia. TASS will continue to emphasize narratives of Ukrainian defeat, drawing on external sources like the Swiss newspaper. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: Providing real-time, transparent updates on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts and casualties. Rapidly debunking RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns. Confirming SBU Colonel assassination with open criminal case. Highlighting UAF air defense effectiveness and securing of additional Patriot systems. Showcasing UAF military successes. Emphasizing international support and financial aid. Promoting domestic resilience. Utilizing social media to boost morale. Ukrainian officials providing direct public addresses. Highlighting UN report confirming increased civilian casualties. Promoting the shift from Russian to Ukrainian language. Actively highlighting severe weather impacts in Western Ukraine to counter RUF disinformation. Continuously reporting on diplomatic engagements. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: High psychological distress, fear, and frustration due to protracted, multi-vector attacks, increased casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. Lingering smoke and poor air quality prolong tension. Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk adds to hardship. Public willing to contribute to war effort through donations. Concern about internal security due to SBU Colonel assassination and the alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Morale boosted by air defense successes, international aid, and visual evidence of RUF losses. Public anger evident towards RUF. Marking the Day of Remembrance for Fallen Medics reinforces national resolve. Local public safety incidents could impact local sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: Morale boosted by RUF claims of military successes. Mobilization efforts aim to project state control. Internal issues are managed or downplayed by state media. Negative reports about RUF generals indicate internal dissent. Propaganda aims to justify the war and normalize military service. Recognition of high ADM consumption among some milbloggers may indicate concerns about sustainability. Reports of internal ethnic tensions could hint at underlying instability. Calls for increased public assistance to the front indicate a level of ongoing public engagement. The reported VDV cadet killing a commander highlights potential severe internal discipline issues. Military award ceremonies are used to further boost morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International Reaction to Kyiv Attacks: Expected strong international condemnation, increasing pressure for expedited air defense. Damage to Vatican Embassy may elicit specific diplomatic responses.
US Military Aid: Reuters confirms resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Zelenskiy reports "signals about the resumption of aid supplies" after talks with Trump. Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed, with Ukrainian losses being lower. TASS reports Trump's statement that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and his upcoming statement on Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
French Military Aid: Production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles to resume in 2025. UK and France signed a nuclear coordination declaration. Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UK Military Aid: Agreement signed to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
German Military Aid: Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems for Ukraine. Zelenskiy met with German Chancellor Merz. Germany will finance ten Patriot systems, and Norway will pay for one more. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Polish Stance: Polish PM Donald Tusk met with Zelenskyy, confirming defense support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Issues: Ongoing internal issues (corruption cases, arrests, economic policies, human rights concerns) continue to be managed. TASS reports PSB ensures uninterrupted pension payments to Russian citizens in Abkhazia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Financial Needs: Continued critical requirement for external financial support. Receipt of EU tranches. Norway allocated $200M for energy sector. Finland and Netherlands provided 300 million euros each for recovery. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuanian Security Incident: Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania, unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters – significant diplomatic incident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Caucasus Diplomacy: Lavrov at ASEAN. Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan UAV exercises reported. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Starlink Mobile Internet: Mobile internet Starlink to launch in Ukraine in summer 2026. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
EU Sanctions: Reuters reports EU Commission will propose a floating price cap on Russian oil. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia, potentially leading to increased diplomatic tension. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border): RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, and border suppression in Sumy/Kursk. They will attempt to consolidate gains and conduct incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs. Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics. Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify. RUF will use propaganda materials to discredit Ukrainian information operations. Efforts to enhance vehicle survivability against drone threats will continue. RUF will continue "fire sweeping" operations. The alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF will pursue unconventional sabotage methods. RUF will leverage claims of foreign mercenary presence in Kharkiv to justify increased targeting. RUF will continue to deploy and highlight logistical robots. NEW: RUF will continue targeting UAF unmanned ground systems and use 6 UAVs on Sumy community. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency, Volume, and Protracted Complexity of Aerial Strikes on Deep Targets: RUF will maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and now Odesa to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia. Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and continued targeting of military-industrial complex sites. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. The use of mobile drone launch platforms will complicate detection. Expect continued UAV activity in border regions of Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging military actions for propaganda and escalating inflammatory disinformation. Claims of UAF desertions or internal discord are likely to increase. RUF will continue internal security operations. Internal propaganda will attempt to manage the narrative around incidents like the VDV cadet killing a commander. TASS will continue to frame Russia as a proponent of "truth and honest analysis of facts" globally. They will actively counter Ukrainian reports of successful breakthroughs into Belgorod Oblast. New attempts to stir diplomatic incidents are likely. TASS will continue to amplify Trump's statements. TASS will also highlight Putin's direct involvement in managing border security issues in Belgorod. RUF will continue to frame their cultural figures on "Myrotvorets" as victims of Ukrainian extremism. TASS will continue to use claims of UAF consciously targeting civilians in Belgorod Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to strengthen ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity. Likely to continue using foreign natural disasters for propaganda and testing NATO's resolve through border provocations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone/Counter-UAV Tech & ADM Efficiency: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities. They will also explore and promote concepts for cheaper, high-volume air defense systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast. The commitment of the 83rd AAB to Vovchansk indicates a higher probability of this envelopment attempt. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. The "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar indicate a clear intent to achieve a breakthrough, increasing the risk. This could be coupled with intensified offensive action on the Pokrovsk axis to prevent UAF reserve redeployment. TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag" indicates RUF intent to achieve an encirclement, escalating the risk. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
- Continue Damage Control: Maintain immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv (28 injured), Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City (9 injured), Lipetsk Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured), Zaporizhzhia Raion (1 injured), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Tula Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured), Kursk Oblast (4 injured), and Odesa.
- Air Defense Alert: Monitor for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by new RUF UAV groups towards Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Odesa. UAF drone safety operations in Russian border regions likely to continue. Monitor for KAB launches. Monitor for re-imposition of flight restrictions at Russian airports. Monitor for reconnaissance UAVs in the Black Sea targeting Odesa. Monitor for RUF UAV activity from Belarus towards Ukraine.
- Intelligence Verification: Verify RUF claims. Confirm details of SBU Colonel assassination. Verify claimed maritime attacks in Red Sea. Clarify conflicting reports on Penza TETs fire. Investigate the VDV cadet killing commander report. Conduct BDA on the Kursk agro-holding fire, Tula explosions, Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, and Kronstadt UAV production facility. Assess the "tank-monster" claims. Verify the unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Verify claims of Mirny and Voskresenka capture. Verify the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin. Verify the TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag". Verify the defense against "Tsar-tank" in Toretsk direction. Assess the implications of the Kyiv Metro tunnel damage and ex-minister Kubrakov searches.
- Counter-Propaganda: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives about abandoning wounded soldiers. Counter disinformation regarding Putin-Trump relations. Proactively highlight damage to civilian structures.
- Monitor RUF Tactical Shifts: Observe RUF border actions and any specific tactical shifts on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Novoseklovske, Kupyansk/Svatove, and Krasnolimansky directions.
SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
- Air Defense Allocation: Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions. Prioritize allocation and delivery of newly committed Patriot systems. Implement new Kyiv drone interception system.
- Frontline Defense: Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk, Donbas, and intensified envelopment attempts in Kharkiv. Continue UAF cross-border drone activity. Commanders on Kramatorsk axis need to action contingency plans for troop rotation.
- System Restoration: Address "Rerezerv+" app outage.
- Financial Aid Integration: Assess immediate impact of EU financial tranches and other aid.
- Force Protection: Prioritize immediate delivery and deployment of anti-thermal cloaks.
- Counter-UAS/EW Deployment: Rapid deployment of additional counter-UAS and EW assets to the Chasiv Yar sector.
- Internal Security: Monitor and respond to internal public safety incidents, and investigate the alleged poisoning plot.
MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
- Aid Effectiveness: Monitor the impact of new US and EU aid deliveries on battlefield dynamics.
- RUF Adaptations: Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their efforts to enhance their own drone and counter-UAV technologies.
- Internal RUF Dynamics: Monitor internal Russian political and social dynamics for long-term force generation implications.
- Strategic Assessment: Assess the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure and resource constraints, and the SBU Colonel assassination on Ukrainian internal security. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
- GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Are current integrated multi-wave, prolonged attacks a new standard? Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Lipetsk, Tula, and Dnipropetrovsk. What is the specific impact of the UAF drone strike on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant, Tula Instrument Design Bureau, and Kronstadt UAV production facility?
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base. Analyze flight patterns and track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Conduct BDA for precise damage assessment and production impact.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
- GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense. What are the specific delivery timelines for new Patriot systems? How will the newly launched Kyiv drone interception system integrate and impact overall ADM effectiveness and consumption?
- CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements. Monitor the initial effectiveness and challenges of the new Kyiv drone interception system.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Desertions:
- GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Zelena Dolyna, Mirny and Voskresenka), precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes, claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles, alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination. Verification of the VDV cadet killing a commander report.
- CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination.
Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry & Demobilization:
- GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry. What is the actual compliance rate and the impact on Russian society and economy? What are the factors contributing to the extremely low demobilization rate? What is the impact of reported fraud against "SVO" fighters?
- CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes. Investigate fraud cases affecting military personnel.
UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
- GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes.
- CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units.
Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
- GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US, UK, German, Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems. What are the specific implications of Trump's statements?
- CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment. Monitor international media and diplomatic channels for further details on US policy shifts and aid commitments.
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
- GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, and suppression of dissent, Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports, local political/cultural controversies) are diverting significant resources from military operations.
- CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts.

END OF REPORT

Situation Report