Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 110400Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: RUF concluded a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours, employing both drones and ballistic missiles. Casualties have risen to two (2) killed and twenty-six (26) injured. Kyiv City, particularly Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, and Podilskyi districts, suffered significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings and a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium, which is almost completely destroyed. Vatican Embassy also reported damage. Firefighting operations are concluded. Missile debris was found in Vinohradar. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes are temporarily changed. New RUF UAV groups were moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, passing Priuky and Oster, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv, and specifically on Artyom, Meridian, Aviadynamics, Analitpribor, and Kuznya na Rybalskom factories. A severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), a natural event that could impact local infrastructure. Post-attack, Ukrainian officials report that movement has been restored on all street sections. Rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris from damaged apartment buildings, with visible damaged vehicles and shattered glass. Emergency services concluded cleanup operations at one of the damaged buildings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries, with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Dachne claim, Dobropillia incident, Soledar visuals, ASTRA casualty report, DeepState FPV strikes, Pokrovsk engagements, Makeevka fires), MEDIUM (TASS FAB strike claim in Tolstoi).
• Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske. The enemy is employing "human wave" tactics with VDV and Motor Rifle units to overwhelm defensive positions through attrition. The risk of a tactical breakthrough in this sector is HIGH due to friendly unit exhaustion. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. OTU "Kharkiv" released video of UAF ISR efforts with a fixed-wing aircraft 'КАРА-ДАГ'. RUF sources report FPV drone destruction of UAF pickup/combat vehicles. Over 246 hectares demined over the past week. Tactical maps for Kupyansk direction released by RUF sources. Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and in the northern part of Vovchansk. Friendly forces are inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations; SIGINT corroborates reports of degraded morale and combat effectiveness in forward Russian units. Enemy has committed operational reserves. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards the Vovchansk area, likely to reinforce flagging offensive momentum or spearhead a new thrust. RUF KABs reported on Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast (Lyubotyn): New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv): Explosions reported in Chuhuiv Hromada. RUF strike has destroyed two private households. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UPDATE: Hospital attacked, 3 injured. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. NEW: Night attack on Chuhuivskyi district resulted in 7 UAV hits. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City): NEW: Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility. Preliminary reports indicate casualties. UPDATE: RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. NEW: One man injured in Kharkiv. UPDATE: Two people injured in Kharkiv. NEW: RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. NEW: Three injured in Saltyvskyi district, Kharkiv. NEW: Maternity hospital affected in Kharkiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast - via Berezne, Rivne Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi (via Zastavna), and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement and potentially diverting resources. New video confirms extensive flooding in Lviv residential areas, impacting civilian infrastructure. RUF claims a strike on a missile division in Lutsk (unverified). CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAV threats, flooding), LOW (Lutsk strike claim).
• Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down. Initially reported significant fire at a power substation (TETs) was confirmed by Operatyvnyi ZSU video of a "transit transformer" fire. However, the governor of Penza, Oleg Melnichenko, now claims the fire at TETs-1 was not related to a drone attack. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (Conflicting reports on drone involvement in Penza TETs fire).
• Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Smolensk Oblast, Russian Federation: Three (3) UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by air defense forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. RUF reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs active. RUF claims losses among UAF SSO officers. Kadyrov_95 reports "Akhmat" special forces, FPV drone groups, and artillery engaged in "clearing enemy positions" in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast, supported by drone video showing explosions in a forested area. Alex Parker Returns reports "all bad" on Sumy, implying negative developments for RUF from an internal source. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. UPDATE: RUF Shahed UAVs moving from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: RUF drones heading to Khotyn, Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. MoD Russia claims "Vostok Group's UAV operators eliminated heavy hexacopters and antennas of the enemy's Starlink satellite station in South Donetsk direction". UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Zaporizhzhia. UAF intelligence indicates successful destruction of Russian Buk and Strela anti-aircraft missile systems, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area by SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance. RBC-Ukraine reports a man with a knife attacked a doctor and destroyed his office in Zaporizhzhia, indicating local public safety incidents. "Два майора" shares video claiming "Zaporizhzhia front" showing military personnel in a woodland area, indicating continued activity. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army reported conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in the Huliaipole direction. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. He was detained in 2024 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during the preparation of a terrorist act, according to case materials reviewed by TASS. NEW: Air raid siren lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka, with video evidence. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. UPDATE: Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city due to RUF attack. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including 3 over Moscow, 5 over Bryansk, and one over Penza). New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. TASS claims FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv; multiple RUF and UAF sources confirm incident. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow (Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky) and Kaluga airports due to drone activity. ASTRA reports Russian MVD declared former lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov and Yevgeny Chichvarkin wanted. MoD Russia states 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings regarding the progress of the "special military operation" as of July 10, 2025, detailing claimed losses and positional gains across various sectors, including Sever, West, South, and Dnipro. TASS reports flight restrictions lifted for Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. TASS confirms all SBP (Fast Payment System) services are working normally after disruptions. TASS reports that large families in the Russian Federation can receive a 30% discount on utility bills, a domestic social policy update. UPDATE: Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. TASS also reports Trump will make an important statement on Russia on July 14. NEW: TASS reports NATO allies might purchase not only defensive but also offensive weapons from the US for transfer to Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. TASS reports Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stating UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast are "successfully repelled." TASS reports 41,000 apartments in Belgorod Oblast have been restored since the start of the "special operation," implying significant damage from UAF shelling. TASS now reports approximately 14,000 damaged vehicles in Belgorod Oblast have been restored. TASS reports that restoration in Repyakhovka and Vyazovoye cannot begin due to proximity to the border with Ukraine, confirming ongoing security concerns in border areas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. UPDATE: Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calls Gladkov. NEW: TASS video of Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly in Belgorod Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO continues destroying enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. "BARS-Crimea" exercises ongoing in Chernomorsky district. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. New reporting indicates successful maritime attacks by Houthi movement on "MAGIC SEAS" and "ETERNITY C" vessels in the Red Sea. While not directly linked to Ukraine, this highlights the growing threat of Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs) and ballistic missiles against maritime targets, a capability that RUF could attempt to emulate or exploit. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UPDATE: No enemy warships detected in Black or Azov Seas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). New image shows tactical map for Konstantinovka direction with highlighted areas, possibly indicating RUF operational interests. "Два майора" shares video collecting donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka with personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area (more than 2 km west of Voskresenka). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction (incl. Karpivka) and Grigorievka. Colonelcassad released tactical map for Lyman-Kupyansk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. UAF soldier from 14th National Guard Brigade liquidated Russian motorcyclist behind enemy lines. Enemy forces have increased the tempo of probing attacks and localized assaults. This activity is assessed as a supporting effort intended to fix Ukrainian reserves in place and prevent their redeployment to the more critical Chasiv Yar or Kharkiv axes. New image depicts "Pokrovsko-Mirnohradskoye direction" map with highlighted areas of claimed RUF control and advances. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that in the area of responsibility of the "Spartan" brigade on the Pokrovsk direction, Russians do not abandon attempts to advance, showing drone footage of destroyed enemy equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UUF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF video shows successful infiltration and engagement by 'PAPAY'. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on a UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced an air danger regime across the entire region, specifically Elets and Eletskiy district. This regime has now been lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New messages from Igor Artamonov confirm a local UAV threat for Elets and Eletskiy district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UPDATE: RUF reports a UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. One person confirmed killed, one injured. NEW: Air danger regime lifted for Elets and Eletskiy district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack, citing Khinshtein. New message highlights UAF drone security in Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Tula, Lipetsk, and Moscow Oblasts, indicating continued UAF drone activity. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports burning production facilities and equipment of a major agro-holding in Kursk Oblast after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports a video of a UAV attack on Kursk Oblast showing multiple bright lights ascending into the sky, possibly flares or pyrotechnic devices. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Svatove Direction (Lozova): RUF tactical maps for the "Svatovskoye Direction" (Lozova) showing claimed control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow (TASS, ASTRA). Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. New message highlights UAF drone security in Moscow Oblast, indicating continued UAF drone activity. Rosaviatsia confirmed temporary flight restrictions at Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports. TASS reports July 10 was a record hot day in Moscow (+33.7°C), a natural event. A new message from Новости Москвы, while discussing architecture, is irrelevant to military operations. Temporary flight restrictions are re-imposed at Zhukovsky airport. UPDATE: Flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." Additionally, Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. NEW: Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. RUF KABs reported on Kupyansk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UPDATE: Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, confirms drone attack on Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Red Sea: Unverified RUF media report with video claims maritime attack on vessels 'MAGIC SEAS' and 'ETERNITY C' by "people in slippers," implying Houthi involvement. Video shows both vessels hit by munitions, significant damage, and apparent sinking. This is an external event but highlights the growing threat of naval drone/missile attacks. TASS reports Netanyahu hopes for peace with several Arab countries; external event, no direct relevance to Ukraine conflict. CONFIDENCE: LOW (RUF source, Houthi claim not directly tied to conflict, Netanyahu comment).
• Syberia, Russian Federation: Alex Parker Returns refers to Yugra as "homeland of Uzbeks" in a video, hinting at internal ethnic tensions/disputes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Syktyvkar, Russian Federation: City court released Darya Chernysheva, director of "Revolt-center," under travel restrictions for "foreign agent" evasion charges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Novoseklovske Direction (RUF Map): RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map displaying military movements and territorial control in the Novoseklovske direction, indicating areas of control for Russian and Ukrainian forces, contested zones, troop movements, and drone strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zakarpattia Oblast: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was beaten to death during mobilization efforts in Zakarpattia. This is currently an unverified claim, but if true, could escalate diplomatic tensions with Hungary. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
• Tula Oblast, Russian Federation: Residents report a large number of explosions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UPDATE: ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. NEW: Ukrainian drone attacked Tula, local residents report many drones and explosions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Ukrainian Air Force Alert: UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine Drone Update: RBC-Ukraine shares photo messages about updated enemy drone movements. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Verolyubovka): RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Video provided by TASS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality, despite fires being extinguished. A severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), which could cause localized damage and transport disruption. New video confirms hailstorm impacts. Electricity deficit in Kyiv due to heat.
• Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
• Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and likely strains emergency services, potentially diverting resources. New video confirms extensive flooding in Lviv residential areas, impacting civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian source highlights "Lviv region doesn't even need war today," confirming severe impact.
• Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
• Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis.
• Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11, potentially impacting visibility, ground movement, and local infrastructure near the border.
• Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines.
• Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
• Kursk Oblast: UAV attack resulted in fires at production facilities of a major agro-holding, indicating impact on local infrastructure. ASTRA video shows flares/pyrotechnics over Kursk Oblast, possibly related to AD activity or other military presence.
• Lipetsk Oblast: UAV threat reported by local governor for Elets and Eletskiy district. UPDATE: UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, causing fire, 1 killed, 1 injured. NEW: Air danger regime lifted for Elets and Eletskiy district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Belgorod Oblast: Proximity to the border with Ukraine is preventing reconstruction efforts in some villages (Repyakhovka, Vyazovoye).
• General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF:
  • Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against drones and ballistic missiles for 10-11 hours, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast - via Berezne, Rivne Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi (via Zastavna), and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. UAF Air Force video documents combat operations by Air Command "Center." President Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. He also states that with the Patriot issue resolved, the threat from ballistic missiles will be eliminated. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy stating Germany is ready to pay for 10 American Patriot systems and their missiles. RBC-Ukraine discusses domestic development of Patriot analogues. New message highlights UAF drone safety in Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Tula, Lipetsk, and Moscow Oblasts, indicating continued UAF deep drone activity. Zelenskyy claims Ukraine has found a solution to shoot down "almost all" UAVs even if Russia launches 700-1000 per day. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Subsequently, the threat was lifted. UPDATE: RUF Shahed UAVs moving from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city due to RUF attack. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. RBC-Ukraine shares photo messages about updated enemy drone movements. Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, confirms drone attack on Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Night attack on Chuhuivskyi district resulted in 7 UAV hits. Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility in Kharkiv City. NEW: RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. NEW: RUF drones heading to Khotyn, Sumy Oblast. UPDATE: UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground advances on critical axes, including in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, and Karlo Marksa), Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF, now updated to over 100 FPV drones launched in Dobropillia by enemy forces over July 9-10. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. Naval Infantry (34th Brigade) training photos released. Omega-West special forces conducting urban clearing operations. 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Veliky Lug" conducting successful drone strikes. BUTUSOV PLUS (Ukrainian source) claims a drone strike against a RUF soldier in a field. STERNENKO reports ongoing destruction of Russian logistics via drone footage of a truck convoy and also claims a successful strike against "RUF equipment" in a new video. "Nikolaevsky Vanok" shares video of a RUF soldier being destroyed. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images showing a significant shift in language use in Ukraine from Russian to Ukrainian, highlighting cultural resilience, and also shares a video of a burning RUF "super-equipment." Another video from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shows soldiers in a trench, some injured, and an explosion, likely documenting military engagement aftermath. Operatyvnyi ZSU shows drone footage of destroyed RUF equipment on Pokrovsk direction. SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, a Strela anti-aircraft missile system, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports "Triyka" drone drops are harassing RUF rear positions, including beyond the line of contact. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone targeting and neutralizing an enemy combatant near a damaged building. This indicates continued effective UAF drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting (completed in Kyiv), and casualty management in Kyiv (2 killed, 26 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment restoration. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Coordination Staff hosted presentation on human rights violations in occupied Crimea/Southern Ukraine. UAF General Staff meeting to address military medicine problems. OTU "Kharkiv" observes July 10 as the Day of Remembrance for Fallen Medics. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports continued public donations for small needs for soldiers, even without official fundraising calls. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" mentions aid and support for comrades. Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks demonstrate adaptive logistics for troop protection. STERNENKO reports 37.9 million out of 50 million collected for a fundraiser. STERNENKO appeals for urgent donations for the night. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Office of Prosecutor General exposing large-scale production of fake excise stamps in Kharkiv Oblast; reported suspicion to former Kyiv City Council Secretary/Deputy Mayor. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan, using frozen Russian assets. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference with Ukrainian and foreign media. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives, discussing long-term security. The Zaporizhzhia OVA shares a similar video. Oleg Syniehubov shares the same video. Serhii Lysak of Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports on meetings at URC 2025 with partners like UNICEF for child-focused initiatives and urgent needs. Два майора reports Ukraine will receive over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction at the Rome conference. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages, indicating continued international support for reparations. Zelenskyy met with Bulgarian PM Rosen Zhelyazkov to discuss energy cooperation. Zelenskyy met with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa, thanking them for participation in the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2025) and for a new support package of over 2 billion euros. He highlighted the creation of the European Flagship Fund for Ukraine's reconstruction. Zelenskyy met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, thanking him for defense support, participation in URC 2025, and joining the European Flagship Fund. RBC-Ukraine reports Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. STERNENKO relays Senator Marco Rubio's statement that US Senate leaders are ready to act on Graham's bill, suggesting further aid. Zelenskiy and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi met at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, thanking him for support. UPDATE: German Chancellor Merz states condition for unblocking Russian assets is €500 billion compensation to Ukraine. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. NEW: TASS reports NATO allies might purchase not only defensive but also offensive weapons from the US for transfer to Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Key Capabilities: High readiness in air defense, effective tactical drone use, urban combat capabilities, internal anti-corruption and counter-sabotage operations, successful diplomatic efforts for financial and military aid (1 billion and 2.3 billion EU aid, UK supplying 5000 AA missiles, Norway $200M for energy, US resuming 155mm and GMLRS, Germany willing to pay for Patriots, Finland and Netherlands 300M EUR each), domestic defense production (fiber optic drones), veteran support programs, adapting to new protection needs (anti-thermal cloaks), effective intelligence operations targeting enemy high-value assets (Buk, Strela systems). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF:
  • Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. Claimed strike on Lutsk missile division (unverified). Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. MoD Russia released video showing artillery firing and a drone view of the impact zone, claiming success against enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. "Dva Mayora" released a video showing what they claim are "morning Iskanders on Kyiv," depicting aerial explosions over a cityscape. "Операция Z" shares video of night mass strike on Kyiv showing damaged residential buildings and emergency response. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a photo of a UMPB D-30SN glide bomb with a dedication, indicating continued use of guided aerial munitions. RUF reports successful maritime attacks by Houthis on commercial vessels, potentially highlighting a tactic they could emulate. Animated map by Colonelcassad shows patterns of strikes on Ukraine on 09-10 July, indicating missile (UMPK, Iskander-M) and Geran/Gerber drone flights across multiple regions. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. Rybar reports on "Geran Season," detailing drone routes over Ukraine. Fighterbomber shared a video "Night will be hot!", likely indicating further RUF aerial activity. UPDATE: RUF Shahed UAVs moving from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs and one new UAV reported heading towards Ochakiv. RUF claims FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire, 1 killed, 1 injured. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. NEW: 7 UAV hits reported on Chuhuivskyi district. Strikes on Kharkiv city center, residential areas, and a medical facility reported. NEW: RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. NEW: RUF drones heading to Khotyn, Sumy Oblast. NEW: "Два майора" shares video of military operations, possibly from Wagner Group, with nationalistic and aggressive overlays. UPDATE: RUF MoD claims TOS-1A Solntsepek destroyed UAF fortified area with drone launch points. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka, Izium, Svatove direction towards Lozova). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF "Vostok" Group drone operators claim destruction of UAF excavator. RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army engaged UAF positions near Voskresenka. 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles. 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade claimed systemic destruction of UAF personnel and firing points in buildings in Chervone. Colonelcassad (Russian source) claims drone destruction of a 120mm mortar system by reconnaissance elements of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade in the South-Donetsk direction. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast, involving reconnaissance, FPV drones, and artillery for "clearing enemy positions." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares images of Russian forces in the Sumy and Krasnoarmeysk directions and provides a "daily summary" of July 10, and also shares a video of "Airborne Brotherhood, family!" implying unit cohesion. MoD Russia claims "Vostok Group's UAV operators eliminated heavy hexacopters and antennas of the enemy's Starlink satellite station in South Donetsk direction, while Yug Group's Lancet team eliminated an AFU D-20 howitzer near Dronovka in Donetsk People's Republic." Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and in the northern part of Vovchansk. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards the Vovchansk area. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske, employing "human wave" tactics. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis. Colonelcassad shares a graphical representation claiming UAF losses from "Unauthorized absence from duty and desertion" have seen a significant increase. Операция Z reports Russian forces are advancing towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. "Два майора" shares video of a reconnaissance group in a woodland setting, implying ongoing covert or preparatory operations. Colonelcassad shared a video showing 25th Combined Arms Army, Group "Zapad" establishing a wireless communication link in a damaged urban area. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army conducting fire sweeping operations in Huliaipole direction. NEW: TASS reports UAF is hastily trying to build defenses at Hatnye - Ambarne line in Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: "Два майора" shares a morning summary for July 11, 2025. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment (e.g., thermal imagers, Mavic 3 Pro drones). Internal issues (arrests, corruption convictions, crime by servicemen, water poisoning, banking failures) persist but are managed. Home-made UGV development. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options against UAVs, including a "Super Tucano" type aircraft, indicating a recognition of high attrition rates for ADMs. RUF media highlights a soldier awarded the "Golden Star," aiming to boost morale and promote military service. ASTRA reports that only just over 70 war participants have been demobilized in the past year, indicating a sustained, low demobilization rate. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" calls for more active assistance to the front. "Два майора" is seen appealing for donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. UPDATE: Colonelcassad posts video showing Russian military personnel receiving the 'Hero of Russia' medal, highlighting bravery and duty to boost morale. Colonelcassad shares photos captioned "Moments of the SVO. Frontline everyday life," likely for morale boosting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv; multiple RUF and UAF sources confirm incident. Internal legal proceedings against officials (Ivanov, Smirnov, Rybyantsev, Kehman, Dmitry Zakhvatov, Yevgeny Chichvarkin). Detention of "Azerbaijani nationalist." Colonelcassad shares video of an alleged "terrorist" detained in Crimea, showing tactical equipment. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. TASS reports a bill submitted to Duma to tighten animal owner responsibility, unrelated to military ops but part of internal governance. The Russian General Prosecutor's office found no violations in the statements of an Azerbaijani deputy claiming Yugra (Siberia) as the homeland of Uzbeks, indicating internal political/ethnic sensitivity. City court in Syktyvkar released "foreign agent" Darya Chernysheva under travel restrictions, indicating continued internal repression. ASTRA reports court arrested "natsbol" Mikhail Galyashkin for "splashing kefir on propagandist Boris Yakimenko," indicating continued internal dissent and suppression. Alex Parker Returns reports a VDV cadet killed a commander by tying his parachute ropes in Ryazan, citing "personal animosity" and allegations of "violence and humiliation" against cadets. This indicates severe internal discipline and morale issues within RUF training establishments, potentially impacting combat readiness. ASTRA confirms the VDV cadet killing the commander due to hazing. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. He was detained in 2024 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during the preparation of a terrorist act, according to case materials reviewed by TASS. NEW: Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Key Capabilities: Complex, multi-domain deep strikes, sustained attritional ground operations, FPV drone effectiveness, KAB/KAR precision strikes, effective counter-UAV capabilities, internal counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism operations, coercive manpower generation (electronic conscription), internal propaganda, efforts to foster military cooperation (Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan UAV exercises), ability to promote high-morale narratives. Continued efforts to generate public support for military actions. Demonstrated active air defense capabilities against UAF UAVs, as shown by "Rubikon" combat groups. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes (10-11 hours on Kyiv) integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones (397 drones, 18 missiles). This capability is now being extended with new strike UAV groups moving towards Kharkiv (Lyubotyn and now from Sumy Oblast, Chuhuivskyi district, Kharkiv City center, Saltivskyi district), Mykolaiv Oblast from Kherson (targeting Balovne, Ochakiv, and Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn), and now Lipetsk Oblast (Khlevensky district), and Tula Oblast (Proletarskyi district, targeting defense industry enterprises). Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting (e.g., Paladin near Konstantinovka, UAF vehicles in Kharkiv, 120mm mortar, Starlink equipment, D-20 howitzer, UAF positions/PVDs near Yablonovka, "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka). The "updated Lancet: Izdelie 51" video demonstrates enhanced loitering munition capabilities, likely including extended range and improved targeting. Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy border) accepting heavy casualties, including the use of "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (98th Airborne Division, "Rubikon" crews, 14 jet-type UAVs shot down over Bryansk, 26 UAVs destroyed in 3 hours over Russia, 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus (Melitopol, Crimea agent detentions, Krasnodar Kray terrorist prevention, Wagner arrests in Azerbaijan, "foreign agent" repression, alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia). Sustained domestic defense industrial output (new Su-34s, UMPB D-30SN glide bombs). Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization (electronic conscription registry). Developing homemade UGVs. Adapting with mobile drone launch platforms (RAM pickups for Gerans). Demonstrated capability for establishing wireless communication links in operational areas. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest an adapting approach to vehicle survivability, potentially through increased protection or unique design. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Intentions:
  • Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks on Kyiv is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personal, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure (medical ambulatorium, Vatican Embassy, residential buildings, schools, private households in Chuhuiv, now including Chuhuiv hospital, and Kharkiv city residential/medical facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital) confirms this. The new UAV groups towards Lyubotyn (Kharkiv), Mykolaiv (Balovne, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn), and now Tula Oblast (defense industry targets), and Lipetsk Oblast (agricultural enterprises) reinforce intent to apply air pressure across multiple axes. Zelenskyy states Russia's intent to make people suffer and flee.
  • Degrade RUF Military-Industrial Complex (asymmetric/reciprocal): UAF drone attacks in Lipetsk Oblast (Khlevensky district, agricultural enterprise) and Tula Oblast (Proletarskyi district, defense industry enterprises) demonstrate UAF intent to strike Russian military-industrial targets and supporting infrastructure, potentially as reciprocal action for RUF strikes on Ukrainian military-industrial targets.
  • Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains & Breakthroughs: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar - critical breakthrough intent, Siversk, Pokrovsk directions, Karlo Marksa, Yablonovka), Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi - envelopment intent, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Hatnye - Ambarne line), and Sumy border areas (Alexandrovka), aiming for tactical advances and consolidation. The commitment of 83rd AAB to Vovchansk signals intent for significant momentum or a new thrust. RUF reports on Lyman-Kupyansk direction, Novoseklovske, and Pokrovsk direction confirm continued offensive focus. RUF operations in Huliaipole direction suggest intent to probe or fix UAF defenses in Zaporizhzhia. RUF MoD claim of TOS-1A "Solntsepek" destroying a UAF fortified area with drone launch points indicates intent to target key UAF assets.
  • Disrupt UAF Logistics & C2: Continue targeting UAF rear areas, supply points (e.g., claimed Iskander strikes on PVDs in Mykolaiv and Kherson), and engineering equipment (UAF excavator). Targeting UAF rotation attempts (pickup truck). Actively seeking to destroy UAF logistics (e.g., truck convoys, Starlink equipment). Claims of destroying "UAF tank-monster" likely serve to demoralize and undermine confidence in UAF equipment. RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka, showing intent to degrade UAF combat vehicles.
  • Subvert Ukrainian Internal Security: The alleged SBU Colonel assassination demonstrates an intent to cause internal instability and degrade key security personnel. The alleged murder of a VDV commander by a cadet highlights a potential intent to sow internal discord and undermine discipline within RUF ranks. The unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia could be intended to stir ethnic tensions and diplomatic incidents. The alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF intent to conduct acts of terrorism against military personnel.
  • Intensify Information Warfare: Sustain and escalate disinformation campaigns (chemical weapons false flag pretexts, UAF desertion claims, civilian targeting claims, exploiting natural disasters, "crematoria" narrative, abandoning wounded soldiers) to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Promote narratives of Russian military heroism and inevitable victory. Exploit any perceived shifts in Western support (Trump's comments on NATO allies paying for US weapons for Ukraine, and his upcoming statement on Russia, particularly the potential for offensive weapons) and specifically to create discord within NATO. Employ narratives highlighting internal Ukrainian disarray (desertions, abandonment of wounded). Alex Parker Returns is seen amplifying narrative critical of "FBK" for "SVO," indicating internal Russian blame-shifting. TASS statement on "international relations based on truth and honest analysis of facts" is a clear attempt to project an image of legitimacy and deflect criticism. TASS reports on repelled UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast to bolster narrative of successful defense of Russian territory. TASS reports on restoration efforts in Belgorod to showcase resilience, and confirms that proximity to the border prevents some reconstruction. UPDATE: TASS reports Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calling Governor Gladkov, demonstrating an intent to control the narrative of border security and leadership engagement. NEW: TASS video of Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly in Belgorod Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Courses of Action:
  • MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar - critical breakthrough intent, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kupyansk/Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka, Izium, Svatove direction towards Lozova, Hatnye - Ambarne line) and Kherson direction. They will maintain border suppression and localized incursions (Alexandrovka, Tetkino, Figolevka, Sumy border areas, including direct UAV strikes on Sumy suburbs and now into Kharkiv Oblast, Chuhuivskyi district, Kharkiv city, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital, and Sumy Oblast, Khotyn), including the Huliaipole direction. They will maintain increased frequency, volume, and protracted complexity of aerial strikes on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, from multiple vectors, to saturate air defenses. Expect new UAV groups to target Kharkiv (Lyubotyn, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv city, and from Sumy direction), and Mykolaiv (Balovne, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn). Continued use of FPV drones, updated Lancet loitering munitions, KAB/KARs (UMPBs), and precision missiles (Iskander) for tactical and deep strikes. Increased information operations focusing on demoralization, false flag pretexts (e.g., chemical weapons claims, newly, claims of UAF using poisonous substances, abandoning wounded), discrediting UAF, and promoting internal instability. Persistent reconnaissance activities over Ukraine, as evidenced by video of "Troop Grouping 'Sever'" operations and "Rubikon" combat groups. Continued diplomatic pressure on allies. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • MDCOA (Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis): Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast to further divert UAF resources. The movement of the 83rd AAB towards Vovchansk increases the likelihood of an envelopment attempt. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • MDCOA (Chemical Weapon False Flag): RUF executes a false flag chemical attack on a civilian area or on its own forces, using recent claims of UAF using poisonous substances as a direct pretext. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • Aerial Attack Integration: Adapting by extending the duration (10-11 hours) and integrating ballistic missiles with Shahed drones in multi-vector, immediate follow-up attacks on Kyiv to overwhelm air defenses and maximize psychological impact. Now explicitly claiming strikes on military-industrial complex targets. Continued development and deployment of advanced glide bombs (UMPB D-30SN). Introduction of mobile launch platforms for Geran (Shahed) drones (RAM pickups), increasing operational flexibility and survivability. Demonstrated fielding of updated Lancet loitering munitions ("Izdelie 51") with improved range and capabilities. Extending UAV strike vectors to include Lyubotyn (Kharkiv), Mykolaiv (Balovne, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn), Chuhuiv Hospital, Kharkiv city medical facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital, Lipetsk Oblast (Khlevensky district), and Tula Oblast (Proletarskyi district, targeting defense industry enterprises).
  • Ground Tactics: Adapting by committing operational reserves (83rd AAB) to critical sectors like Vovchansk to sustain offensive momentum. Employing "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar to achieve breakthroughs through attrition. Increased focus on exploiting perceived UAF weaknesses (e.g., claimed desertion of 150th Brigade in Sumy, abandoning wounded) through information operations or localized ground pressure. Adapting to target UAF engineering assets (excavator), and rotation attempts (pickup truck). Implementing "clearing operations" with combined special forces, FPV drones, and artillery in border areas. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis as a supporting effort. Actively targeting Starlink stations. Renewed efforts to break through to Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. "Два майора" indicates ongoing reconnaissance activities. Adapting to establish wireless communication links in damaged urban environments, indicating efforts to improve battlefield C2. RUF source Рыбарь released a map with current control and movement in the Novoseklovske direction, indicating ongoing operational planning and targeting. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest new defensive measures or up-armoring of vehicles. Conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in Huliaipole direction, indicating continued attritional tactics. FPV drone operators are actively targeting UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. FSB claim regarding poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates a focus on disrupting military operations through unconventional means. RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka, indicating continued focus on degrading UAF combat vehicles. NEW: RUF MoD claims TOS-1A "Solntsepek" destruction of a UAF fortified area with drone launch points, indicating precision targeting of specific UAF assets. NEW: TASS reports UAF is hastily trying to build defenses at Hatnye - Ambarne line in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a perceived change in UAF posture.
  • Targeting Precision: Confirmed adaptation for precision long-range strikes against UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs) using Iskander missiles. Systematic targeting of UAF personnel and firing points in buildings (Chervone). Precision drone strikes on UAF mortar positions, Starlink equipment, and D-20 howitzers. Active targeting of UAF logistics (truck convoys). Lancet updates suggest improved precision and extended engagement range for high-value targets.
  • Information Operations: Adapting by providing more detailed, visual "frontline briefings" and quickly countering international criticism. Producing counter-propaganda videos (e.g., alleged UAF use of captured RUF servicemen for propaganda). Explicitly linking civilian casualties to Ukrainian units ("Azov"). State media (TASS, MoD Russia) are rapidly reporting UAF UAV shootdowns over Russian territory and associated casualties, highlighting Ukrainian aggression and Russian air defense effectiveness. TASS is also countering claims of UAF breakthroughs into Belgorod and reporting on reconstruction efforts, including restored vehicles, and acknowledging areas where reconstruction is stalled due to border proximity. TASS is now actively reporting on Trump's statements regarding NATO allies paying for US weapons for Ukraine, and his upcoming Russia statement, including the potential for offensive weapons, attempting to influence international discourse. TASS reports Trump will make an important statement on Russia on July 14, seeking to influence future narratives. Colonelcassad and other milbloggers are disseminating daily operational updates leveraging on-the-ground reports and maps, now including graphical representations of claimed UAF losses due to desertion, and videos of combat operations/destroyed equipment. Intensifying narratives about Ukraine abandoning its wounded soldiers. Promoting narratives of military heroism and "inevitable victory" (e.g., 'Hero of Russia' medals). Exploiting US political shifts (Trump's approach to Ukraine). Releasing daily summaries of military operations (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Contradictory reporting on drone attacks on Russian territory (Penza TETs-1) to control narrative. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" actively soliciting donations for VDV day, linking public support to frontline operations. Alex Parker Returns attempts to shift blame for "SVO" to "FBK." Rybar's "Geran Season" maps indicate comprehensive drone attack route analysis and dissemination. Alex Parker Returns' report on VDV cadet killing commander is a significant, potentially morale-damaging internal narrative. Colonelcassad published materials from a captured individual from the 72nd Center of IPSO, alleging the production of fake videos with Ukrainian POWs, aiming to discredit Ukrainian information operations. TASS is adapting its messaging to promote Russia as a proponent of "truth and honest analysis of facts" in international relations, a clear propaganda effort. Fox News claims about the Pentagon trying to catch up in drones are being amplified, framing Russia as a leader in drone technology. The unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia is a new attempt to create diplomatic friction. TASS reports about the alleged Ukrainian plot to poison Russian military in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to frame Ukraine as a terrorist state. UPDATE: TASS reports Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calling Gladkov, further demonstrating control over narrative concerning border security. TASS features interviews with officials (Gladkov) about drone defense and civilian protection, emphasizing state efforts and challenges. TASS reports on Russian artists/cultural figures being on the "Myrotvorets" website, framing it as extremist and attempting to demonize Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares photos captioned "Moments of the SVO. Frontline everyday life," to bolster morale. NEW: TASS reports foreign mercenaries from six NATO countries have been transferred to Kharkiv, a clear informational tactic to delegitimize UAF forces and portray international involvement as escalatory. NEW: TASS video of Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly in Belgorod Oblast, directly blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties. NEW: "Два майора" is amplifying the narrative that Trump is "throwing Ukraine and Europe under the bus" financially and is indifferent to peace in Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Security: Enhanced counter-intelligence operations (Melitopol, Crimea agent detentions, 'Operation Cobweb' truck driver arrest), and internal counter-terrorism (Krasnodar Kray, Crimea detention, alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia). Collaboration with Azerbaijan on "Wagner" arrests. Management of internal ethnic/political tensions (Yugra/Uzbeks). Continued repression of "foreign agents" and dissidents (Galyashkin arrest for "kefir attack"). The internal incident involving a VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level, suggesting underlying discipline issues. This is confirmed by ASTRA. TASS reports on Steam platform outages for Russian users, indicating potential internal digital infrastructure vulnerabilities or targeting. NEW: Rejection of Azerbaijani peaches/nectarines in Krasnodar might be linked to internal economic protectionism or political signaling. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Force Generation: Significant adaptation with the full operationalization of the electronic conscription registry for forced mobilization. Maintaining low demobilization rates (70+ in a year). Continued public calls for donations to the front. "Два майора" is actively fundraising for assault forces.
  • Resource Leveraging: Increased reliance on public donations for tactical equipment. Proposing alternative, cheaper air defense solutions (e.g., turboprop aircraft) to counter drone threats, indicating high ADM expenditure.
  • Tactical Innovation: Development of homemade UGVs, adapting to new combat roles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF:
  • Air Defense Resilience: Demonstrating rapid and sustained response to the prolonged, integrated multi-vector aerial attacks on Kyiv, indicating adaptive and resilient air defense C2 and execution. Adapting to RUF's new daylight drone tactics. Actively seeking more Patriot systems through international partners, with success in securing German and Norwegian commitments. Discussing domestic development of Patriot analogues. Zelenskyy claims solution found to shoot down "almost all" UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine immediately reported a ballistic missile threat and subsequently announced its lifting, demonstrating active monitoring and rapid response capabilities. Active monitoring of new RUF UAV groups towards Lyubotyn (Kharkiv), Mykolaiv (Balovne, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn), and now Kharkiv Oblast as new group of strike UAVs from Sumy Oblast, and Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital. UPDATE: UAF Air Force reports RUF Shahed UAVs moving from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast, indicating responsive intelligence. UAF reports neutralization of all incoming UAVs in Mykolaiv area. UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements, and RBC-Ukraine shares photo messages about updated enemy drone movements, indicating continued vigilance and information dissemination. NEW: Syniehubov reports 7 UAV hits on Chuhuivskyi district. Kharkiv Mayor reports strikes on Kharkiv City center and a medical facility. UPDATE: UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Decentralized Defense: Strategic adaptation through the experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations.
  • Logistical Streamlining: DeepState reports on Brave1 Market and DOT-Chain Defence platforms for faster drone/EW procurement, indicating adapted logistical and procurement processes. Actively sharing successful deep strikes on Russian logistics. Actively fundraising for anti-thermal cloaks for infantry. STERNENKO's urgent night appeal underscores immediate financial needs for tactical needs.
  • Tactical Engagement: Continued effective use of FPV drones for tactical engagements and offensive drone capabilities by airmobile forces. Successful urban combat and clearing operations by special forces. Ukrainian sources are sharing drone footage of successful engagements against RUF personnel and equipment. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone successfully neutralizing an enemy combatant, demonstrating effective drone-based targeting and engagement. Commanders on the Kramatorsk axis are being advised to prepare contingency plans for troop rotation to mitigate exhaustion. Pre-positioning engineering assets to counter potential envelopment. Successful destruction of RUF air defense and armored systems by specialized units (SBS, 74th ORB). Use of drone drops against RUF rear positions. DeepState's "Top-10 units for June" based on "combat points" indicates a system of performance tracking and recognition, a form of internal tactical adaptation and morale boosting.
  • Information Counter-Offensive: Proactive and transparent public reporting on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts, casualties, and the scale of the threat (397 drones, 18 missiles launched), including damage to the Vatican Embassy and Chuhuiv households, and now Chuhuiv Hospital, and Kharkiv City medical/residential facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital. Direct countering of RUF chemical weapons disinformation and "crematoria" false flag narratives. Rapid response and investigation of the SBU Colonel assassination. Leveraging international platforms to communicate Ukraine's resolve and needs. Zelenskyy is actively communicating on international support and financial needs, as well as the conditions for negotiations. Highlighting increased civilian casualties from RUF attacks (UN report). Actively promoting the shift from Russian to Ukrainian language in society, countering RUF narratives of "protecting Russian speakers." Actively highlighting severe weather impacts in Western Ukraine to counter RUF disinformation. Continuously reporting on diplomatic engagements (Bulgarian PM meeting, EU, Polish PM). RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time, countering previous uncertainty. STERNENKO relays Senator Marco Rubio's statement that US Senate leaders are ready to act on Graham's bill, indicating continued aid. Zelenskiy met with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, thanking him for support. Countering RUF efforts to discredit Ukrainian information operations by highlighting the release of "fake" videos.
  • Resource Mobilization: Successfully leveraging public donations for tactical drones (fiber optic drones, Mavic 3 Pro) and unit sustainment. Securing significant international financial and military aid (EU, UK, US, Norway, Germany, Finland, Netherlands). Continued public fundraising efforts, with some indicating strong progress (STERNENKO's fundraiser for 50 million UAH at 37.9 million collected), offset by urgent appeals.
  • Internal Governance: Ongoing adaptation and focus on internal anti-corruption (KMDA officials, fake excise stamps) and law enforcement (contract killing prevention, arsonist detention). Proactive addressing of military medicine issues, including honoring fallen medics. Active policing efforts against organized crime (Dnipropetrovsk gang). Civilian leadership (Dnipropetropetrovsk OVA) actively engaged in international cooperation for reconstruction and humanitarian aid. Internal public safety incident in Zaporizhzhia (knife attack on doctor) adds to local health sector strain. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF:
  • Deep Strike Munitions: Sustained, high-volume, multi-domain deep strike capabilities indicate robust production/procurement and sustainment chains for ballistic missiles and Shahed drones. New Su-34 deliveries support continued KAB/KAR use. Development and deployment of UMPB D-30SN glide bombs. Introduction of updated Lancet loitering munitions ("Izdelie 51") suggests continued investment and production in advanced drone systems.
  • Tactical Supply Chain: Evidence of tactical shortfalls, with continued reliance on public donations for certain equipment (thermal imagers, Mavic 3 Pro drones, armored vehicle maintenance). However, sustained ground operations imply functioning supply lines for ammunition and fuel, though sustainability of current high tempo of artillery fire is an intelligence gap. Recruitment of detainees and electronic conscription aim to address manpower sustainment, further reinforced by low demobilization rates. "Старше Эдды" comments on high anti-aircraft missile consumption, implying a strain on ADM logistics. "Два майора" is actively fundraising for assault forces, indicating continued need for public support for tactical units. Colonelcassad's "transport war" image could imply ongoing logistical challenges or targets. Claims of "tank-monster" surviving 60 drone strikes suggest RUF is adapting to high drone threat, possibly with improved passive/active protection, which demands material resources.
  • Internal Challenges: Persistent internal issues (forest fires, oil spills, water poisoning, banking system failures, internal crime, corruption, ethnic tensions) could strain long-term resource allocation, but do not appear to immediately impact frontline logistics. Contradictory reporting on drone impact on infrastructure (Penza TETs) adds uncertainty. TASS reports SBP services are fully operational after previous disruptions, indicating resolution of a recent financial infrastructure issue. The VDV cadet killing a commander highlights potential internal morale/discipline issues that could affect future personnel quality/retention. TASS reporting on restored vehicles in Belgorod suggests ongoing repair efforts, but also reports that reconstruction is stalled in some border villages due to proximity to the Ukrainian border, indicating unmitigated logistical challenges in those areas. TASS reporting on discounts for utility bills for large families highlights social support efforts aimed at internal stability. UPDATE: Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia, indicating potential internal digital infrastructure vulnerabilities or targeting. NEW: Rejection of Azerbaijani peaches/nectarines in Krasnodar could signal internal economic or political issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Deep Strike, Aircraft Production, Manpower Sustainment), MEDIUM (Tactical Supply Chain, Internal Impact).
• UAF:
  • Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE CONSTRAINT. The protracted, multi-vector, and high-volume RUF aerial attacks on Kyiv place extreme strain on interceptor stockpiles. Recent aid announcements (UK 5000 AA missiles, Germany 10 Patriots, Norway 1 Patriot, US 155mm & GMLRS) are crucial but require consistent delivery. Ukrainian expert comments on high cost of Patriot analogue development, reinforcing reliance on foreign procurement. Zelenskyy's statement about shooting down "almost all" UAVs, even at high volumes, needs to be assessed against actual ADM expenditure and sustainability.
  • Medical/Emergency Services: Under strain due to increased civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly in Kyiv and now Chuhuiv hospital, and Kharkiv city medical facilities, maternity hospital. UAF General Staff explicitly acknowledges "problematic issues" in military medicine. OTU "Kharkiv" highlights the importance of fallen medics. Casualty count in Kyiv has risen to 26 injured. Zaporizhzhia hospitals commemorate fallen medical workers. Public safety incident in Zaporizhzhia (knife attack on doctor) adds to local health sector strain.
  • Financial Sustainment: Continued critical requirement for external financial support (~$3B USD/month) for non-military operations. Recent EU tranches (1 billion, 2.3 billion euros) and Norwegian aid ($200M for energy), Finnish (€300M for recovery), and Dutch (€300M) provide some relief. Zelenskyy projects Putin will spend 300 billion USD on war next year, implicitly highlighting Ukraine's need for continued financial support. Zelenskyy provides "unexpected signals" on defense financing. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome. STERNENKO's urgent night appeal underscores immediate financial needs for operations.
  • Tactical Equipment: Continued reliance on external (volunteer/donor) support for tactical drones and power solutions. Slowdown in some fundraising efforts (e.g., fiber optic drones) could be a constraint, though recent reports show strong performance for some (STERNENKO's fundraiser for 50 million UAH at 37.9 million collected), offset by urgent appeals. Public donations for soldiers' "small needs" persist. New fundraising for anti-thermal cloaks indicates a new resource requirement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain, protracted aerial strikes on Kyiv from multiple vectors. Effective tactical C2 for frontline operations, MRLS, KAB/KAR deployment, and drone use, including combined special forces-drone-artillery operations (Alexandrovka) and Lancet deployments. Demonstrates effective C2 for counter-intelligence, internal security, and information operations, rapidly disseminating narratives and managing internal messaging, including contradictory reporting and the alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Evidence of C2 for regional military cooperation (Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan). Strong C2 for forced manpower generation and maintaining low demobilization rates. Commitment of 83rd AAB shows effective C2 for reserve deployment. Daily operational summaries from milbloggers like Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 suggest a level of coordinated information dissemination. C2 appears effective in adapting to new mobile drone launch platforms. "Два майора" video showing a reconnaissance group indicates effective C2 for smaller, specialized teams. Colonelcassad's video on 25th CAA establishing a wireless link indicates C2 efforts to improve tactical communications. Rybar's latest map for Novoseklovske direction indicates continued C2 for intelligence analysis and dissemination. "Rubikon" combat groups demonstrate effective C2 for air defense operations. The successful liquidation of UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka by FPV drones, as claimed by Colonelcassad, further highlights effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. However, the VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level, suggesting underlying discipline issues. UPDATE: TASS reports Steam outages, indicating potential C2 impact on civilian digital infrastructure. TASS also reports Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calling Governor Gladkov, demonstrating high-level C2 engagement for border security. TASS video of Gladkov discussing multi-level drone defense shows an active C2 effort to address threats to border regions and civilian protection. NEW: "Два майора" sharing a morning summary indicates continued C2 over their information channels. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Overall Tactical/Strategic), MEDIUM (Internal Discipline C2, Civilian Digital Infrastructure C2).
• UAF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, managing local civilian emergency responses, and conducting BDA. Effective tactical C2 for frontline situational awareness, combat operations, and drone deployment (e.g., FPV strikes, urban clearing, logistics interdiction, destruction of RUF air defense systems). Demonstrates effective C2 for internal governance (anti-corruption, law enforcement) and for leveraging international financial and military support. Strategic communication C2 is strong, providing transparent updates and countering RUF disinformation. Proactive C2 for addressing military medicine challenges. Advising commanders on contingency plans for troop rotation indicates effective adaptation within C2. Zelenskyy's continuous engagement with international partners (Bulgarian PM, EU leaders, Polish PM, IAEA Director General) demonstrates strong diplomatic C2. Air Force updates on drone activity (e.g., in Donetsk Oblast, and new groups towards Lyubotyn/Mykolaiv/Sumy, Chuhuivskyi district, Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, Khotyn) confirm active monitoring and C2. The prompt reporting and subsequent lifting of the ballistic missile threat from the northeast demonstrate effective early warning and C2. DeepState's "Top-10 units" recognition system suggests effective internal C2 for performance tracking and morale. The prompt report and neutralization claim for UAVs in Mykolaiv suburbs shows effective C2 for local air defense. UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements, and RBC-Ukraine shares photo messages about updated enemy drone movements, indicating strong information sharing capabilities to the public. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Force Posture: UAF maintains a critical and active air defense network defending against complex, multi-vector, and prolonged RUF aerial attacks across the country, especially in Kyiv and Western Oblasts. New RUF strike UAV groups targeting Lyubotyn (Kharkiv and from Sumy Oblast), Mykolaiv Oblast from Kherson (Balovne, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn), Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, Lipetsk Oblast (Khlevensky district), and Tula Oblast (Proletarskyi district) will stretch this network further. Frontline units are holding defensive positions and conducting active engagements against RUF ground advances across multiple axes in Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Maintaining capability for deep drone strikes into Russia and logistics interdiction. Southern Defense Forces are postured for active defense and striking RUF positions. Posture of decentralized air defense through volunteer groups. UAF special forces are postured for urban combat. Infantry are operating on Orikhiv and Toretsk directions. Air Force reports multiple RUF UAV groups moving towards Donetsk region, indicating continued active air defense posture. UAF Air Force is on high alert for ballistic missile threats from the northeast, demonstrating a responsive posture. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and sustained air defense responses to the intensified, prolonged Kyiv attack (178/415 targets shot down). Emergency services at high readiness for civilian response, with operations in Kyiv ongoing and traffic restored. Continuous tactical medical training enhances combat readiness. Southern Defense Forces maintain readiness against RUF assaults. Units actively engaged across multiple front lines, facing high attrition and potential exhaustion, particularly in Chasiv Yar. Personnel welfare and rehabilitation programs (amputee football) ongoing. Enhanced procurement processes for drones/EW systems (e-points) aim to maintain tactical readiness. Tactical units are seeking anti-thermal protection. Readiness for deep strike operations into Russian territory is maintained. DeepState's "Top-10 units for June" and their "combat points" system reflect ongoing efforts to assess and maintain unit readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Air Defense: High effectiveness with 178/415 targets shot down during Kyiv attack. Successful interceptions over Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy. UAF Air Force video shows successful combat operations by Air Command "Center." Ukraine securing commitments for more Patriot systems (Germany 10, Norway 1). Zelenskyy claims Ukraine has found a solution to shoot down "almost all" UAVs. Current reports indicate RUF drones are only active in Donetsk Oblast, implying successful neutralization in other regions, though new groups are now active in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv (Balovne, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv suburbs), and Sumy. UAF Air Force successfully identified and lifted a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. UAF claims neutralization of all incoming UAVs in Mykolaiv area. UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements, and RBC-Ukraine shares photo messages about updated enemy drone movements, indicating effective tracking and public information sharing. NEW: Syniehubov reports 7 UAV hits on Chuhuivskyi district. Kharkiv Mayor reports strikes on Kharkiv City center and a medical facility. UPDATE: UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Deep Strikes: Successful drone strike on Penza power substation (initial report, now conflicting). Continued deep strike attempts into Moscow (3 drones shot down). Air danger regime in Lipetsk lifted. New message indicates continued UAF drone safety operations in multiple Russian oblasts. Successful drone strikes on Russian logistics (truck convoy) and RUF rear positions (Operatyvnyi ZSU). STERNENKO claims another successful strike against RUF equipment. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a UAV attack on production facilities of a major agro-holding in Kursk Oblast causing fires. ASTRA reports a large number of explosions in Tula Oblast, indicating successful UAF drone activity further into Russia. UPDATE: UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire, 1 killed, 1 injured. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Attrition of RUF Forces: UAF General Staff reports significant RUF losses (920 personnel, 3 MLRS, etc.). Successful strikes by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Destruction of numerous RUF high-value equipment on Zaporizhzhia front (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). Repelling 14 Russian assaults in Kursk/Sumy. Successful FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia. UAF soldier liquidated Russian motorcyclist and captured bike in Pokrovsk direction. Successful drone strike on RUF armored vehicle (Airmobile forces). Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations in Kharkiv direction, with SIGINT corroborating degraded morale in RUF units. Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed since the start of the year, with Ukrainian losses being less. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shows video of burning RUF equipment and drone footage of enemy soldiers in a trench being hit. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows destroyed RUF equipment on Pokrovsk direction. SBS/74th ORB destroyed a Buk and Strela anti-aircraft missile system and other armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU shows drone footage of a neutralized enemy combatant, reinforcing effective tactical drone use. DeepState's "Top-10 units" based on "combat points" demonstrates systematic tracking of successes.
  • International Aid: Reuters confirms resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Zelenskiy reports "signals about the resumption of aid supplies" after talks with Trump. US discussing "roadmap" for conflict end. Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed, with Ukrainian losses being lower, suggesting continued international support for Ukraine's defense. US representatives participated in the "Coalition of Willing" meeting, signifying high-level engagement. Reports of strained Putin-Trump relations by NYT (RUF source) are likely disinformation, as Semafor and US Secretary of State confirm Washington's willingness for continued contacts with Moscow, implying a pragmatic, not necessarily anti-Kyiv, approach from Trump's camp. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time, confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. NEW: TASS reports NATO allies might purchase not only defensive but also offensive weapons from the US for transfer to Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • French Military Aid: Production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles to resume in 2025. UK and France signed a nuclear coordination declaration. Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine confirms France and Britain will significantly increase peacekeeping forces for Ukraine.
  • UK Military Aid: Agreement signed to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles.
  • German Military Aid: Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems for Ukraine. Zelenskiy met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing military support. Zelenskyy confirms Germany will finance ten Patriot systems, and Norway will pay for one more. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. UPDATE: German Chancellor Merz reiterates €500 billion compensation as condition for unblocking Russian assets.
  • Finnish/Dutch Aid: Finland provided 300 million euros for recovery. Netherlands provided 300 million euros.
  • Internal Governance: Anti-corruption and counter-sabotage operations (fake excise stamps, arrests of officials/arsonists). Law enforcement successes (prevented contract killing, bribery, disruption of Dnipropetrovsk gang).
  • Strategic Communication: High-level officials livestreaming press conferences for transparency and international engagement. Zelenskyy's clear statements on war costs, sanctions, and negotiations. Highlighting UN report on civilian casualties to underscore RUF atrocities. Promoting shift in language usage. Actively highlighting severe weather impacts in Western Ukraine to counter RUF disinformation. Continuously reporting on diplomatic engagements (Bulgarian PM meeting, EU, Polish PM). RBC-Ukraine reports on "Shakhtar" football team's victory, a positive morale booster for the public.
• Setbacks:
  • Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Direct hits on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv (residential, medical ambulatorium, Vatican Embassy, schools) resulting in 2 killed, 26 injured. Civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk (1 killed), Zaporizhzhia (2 injured), Donetsk (9 killed, 10 injured). 11 Kharkiv settlements struck, and explosions reported in Chuhuiv, with two private households destroyed. Hospital attacked in Chuhuiv, 3 injured. Night attack on Chuhuivskyi district resulted in 7 UAV hits. Strikes on Kharkiv city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility in Kharkiv City, with preliminary reports of casualties. RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. NEW: One man injured in Kharkiv. UPDATE: Two people injured in Kharkiv. NEW: RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. NEW: Three injured in Saltyvskyi district, Kharkiv. NEW: Maternity hospital affected in Kharkiv. UN report of 232 civilians killed in Ukraine in June, the highest in three years. Emergency services are still clearing debris from damaged buildings. Damaged Vatican Embassy is confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. Civilian killed and one injured in Lipetsk Oblast (Khlevensky district).
  • Internal Security: Assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv (confirmed by UAF and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Public safety incident in Zaporizhzhia (knife attack on doctor) indicates local challenges. Potential new threat from alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Resource Strain: "Rerezerv+" app outage impacting personnel management. Slowdown in some public drone fundraising. Electricity deficit in Kyiv due to heat. High risk of tactical breakthrough in Chasiv Yar due to friendly unit exhaustion. Over 100 FPV drones launched by enemy on Dobropillia could indicate increased FPV threat.
  • RUF Claims (Unverified but potential setbacks): RUF claims UAF battalion HQ (150th Brigade) desertion in Sumy. RUF claims destruction of UAF ammunition depot (Sumy). RUF claims destruction of UAF excavator. RUF claims Iskander strikes on UAF PVDs in Mykolaiv and Kherson. RUF claims Paladin destroyed near Konstantinovka. RUF claims losses among UAF SSO officers in Sumy. RUF claims destruction of UAF light armored vehicle/truck ("Vinokos" video, pickup truck near Yanvarskyi). Captured UAF soldiers shown in RUF propaganda. TASS claims UAF command abandons wounded soldiers in Sumy direction. MoD Russia claims destruction of UAF heavy hexacopters and Starlink equipment. MoD Russia claims destruction of a UAF D-20 howitzer. Colonelcassad's graph claims an increase in UAF desertions. Операция Z claims "tank-monster" endured 60 drone strikes, indicating a resilient enemy target. TASS claims UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod are repelled. Unverified claim of Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Colonelcassad claims FPV drone operators liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Kyiv impacts/casualties, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk civilian casualties, Melitopol detentions, SBU Colonel assassination, Mykolaiv Iskander strike, Vatican Embassy damage, Zaporizhzhia AA/Armor destruction, Chuhuiv explosions, Chuhuiv hospital attack, 7 UAV hits on Chuhuivskyi district, Kharkiv City center/residential/medical facility strikes, preliminary casualties in Kharkiv, RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City, 1-3 injured in Kharkiv, Saltivskyi district hit, maternity hospital affected, Mykolaiv outskirts fire, Tula explosions, Zaporizhzhia poisoning plot, Lipetsk UAV strike civilian casualties), MEDIUM (Penza fire drone involvement, Colonelcassad desertion claims, Dobropillia FPV volume, Belgorod breakthrough claims, Yablonovka PVD destruction, Verolyubovka Kozak destruction), LOW (RUF claims of UAF desertion, depot destruction, Lutsk strike, SSO officer losses, Vinokos vehicle destruction, Paladin destruction verification, Starlink/D-20 destruction verification, Zakarpattia mobilization death claim).
  • Environmental Impact: Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk impacting movement and potentially diverting resources. Hailstorm near Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Air Defense Munitions: Immediate and sustained supply of interceptors for ballistic missiles and drones due to high expenditure rate from prolonged, multi-vector attacks. Commitments for Patriot systems are positive but delivery timelines are key. Zelenskyy's confidence in shooting down high volumes of UAVs implies a need for sustainable countermeasures. The new RUF UAV groups towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy (Khotyn), and now Tula Oblast, Chuhuiv, and Kharkiv City will further increase this requirement.
• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Medical and Emergency Response: Immediate surge capacity for medical personnel and emergency services in affected urban areas. Resources for psychological support. Managing increased casualties from Kyiv attack and Chuhuiv hospital attack, and Kharkiv City attacks, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital, and now Lipetsk Oblast civilian casualties. Addressing acknowledged "problematic issues" in military medicine.
• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Financial Sustainment: Continued external financial support (~$3B USD/month) to maintain non-military operations and long-term recovery. STERNENKO's urgent night appeal highlights immediate financial needs for equipment.
• HIGH REQUIREMENT: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and Repair: Resources for rapid BDA, recovery, and repair of damaged civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City, and other affected areas, particularly medical facilities.
• HIGH REQUIREMENT: Tactical Drones/Power Equipment/Protection: Consistent supply of various drone types (e.g., FPV, reconnaissance) and associated power solutions for frontline units. Immediate need for anti-thermal protection (e.g., "Chugaister" cloaks) for infantry units.
• HIGH REQUIREMENT: Force Rotation & Rest: Critical need for contingency plans for troop rotation and rest, especially in Chasiv Yar, to mitigate combat exhaustion.
• HIGH REQUIREMENT: Counter-UAS/EW: Deployment of additional Counter-UAS and EW assets, particularly to Chasiv Yar, to protect friendly armor and artillery. Addressing the high volume of FPV drones in areas like Dobropillia.
• HIGH REQUIREMENT: Engineering & Obstacle Materials: Pre-positioning engineering and obstacle-laying assets to counter potential envelopment maneuvers in Kharkiv.
• CONSTRAINT: Public Fundraising Fluctuation: Potential slowdown in public donations for certain equipment (e.g., fiber optic drones), though recent reports show strong performance for some (STERNENKO's fundraiser for 50 million UAH at 37.9 million collected), offset by urgent appeals.
• CONSTRAINT: Digital Infrastructure Reliability: "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights vulnerability in digital personnel management systems.
• CONSTRAINT: Internal Public Safety: Localized incidents like the knife attack on a doctor in Zaporizhzhia could indicate underlying social issues that demand resources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF Narratives: Immediately and widely amplifying "Kyiv got what it deserved" narratives, visually showcasing damage, and downplaying severity. Claiming strikes on Kyiv's military-industrial complex and airfields. Propagating highly inflammatory and false chemical weapons claims (UAF using poisonous substances, request for OPCW assistance). Fabricating UAF desertion claims (150th Brigade), now reinforced with graphical claims of increased desertion rates, and claims of UAF abandoning wounded soldiers. Accusing UAF of attacking civilians (Shebekino, Lipetsk Oblast civilian casualties, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital) and highlighting restoration efforts in Belgorod, including restored vehicles, while also explaining limitations due to border proximity. Highlighting claimed military successes (Dachne liberation, FPV/FAB destruction of UAF assets, Iskander strikes, anti-UAV successes, destruction of Starlink equipment, D-20 howitzer, advances in Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka, claims of a "tank-monster" resisting 60 drone strikes, repelled UAF breakthroughs in Belgorod, reconstruction efforts in Belgorod, restored vehicles, FPV drone liquidation of UAF positions/PVDs near Yablonovka, destruction of UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle, TOS-1A Solntsepek destroying UAF fortified area). Using alleged SBU Colonel assassination to portray internal Ukrainian instability. Attempting to externalize blame for the assassination ("gypsies"). Leveraging captured UAF POWs for propaganda (morale issues, encouraging desertion, alleged UAF staged propaganda). Amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as divine retribution. Highlighting internal Russian stability (economic analogues, anti-corruption, counter-terrorism, successful pension payments in Abkhazia, management of internal ethnic issues, SBP system recovery, social benefits for large families, military award ceremonies). Portraying Western aid as insufficient or escalatory. Exploiting perceived EU political instability (von der Leyen no-confidence vote, Ursula von der Leyen's position). Russian state media like TASS and MoD Russia are actively reporting on Ukrainian UAV shootdowns over Russian territory, emphasizing the threat and Russian air defense capabilities. TASS is also disseminating a photo of Maria Zakharova, promoting a narrative about Germany owing Russia for cultural restoration, likely aiming to sow discord within the EU and deflect from war damages. TASS reports Trump's statement that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine, aiming to create divisions, and that NATO allies might purchase not only defensive but also offensive weapons from the US for transfer to Ukraine. TASS reports Trump will make an important statement on Russia on July 14, seeking to influence future narratives. Colonelcassad and other milbloggers are disseminating daily operational reports with claims of UAF losses and tactical gains, alongside propaganda videos and now, graphics, including videos of updated Lancet effectiveness. TASS is now actively publishing statements from Lavrov emphasizing "truth and honest analysis of facts" in international relations, a clear attempt to control the narrative. Fox News claims about the Pentagon trying to catch up in drones are being amplified, framing Russia as a leader in drone technology. The unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia is a new attempt to create diplomatic friction. TASS reports about the alleged Ukrainian plot to poison Russian military in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to frame Ukraine as a terrorist state. UPDATE: TASS reports Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calling Gladkov, further demonstrating control over narrative concerning border security. TASS features interviews with officials (Gladkov) about drone defense and civilian protection, emphasizing state efforts and challenges. TASS reports on Russian artists/cultural figures being on the "Myrotvorets" website, framing it as extremist and attempting to demonize Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares photos captioned "Moments of the SVO. Frontline everyday life," for morale. NEW: TASS reports foreign mercenaries from six NATO countries have been transferred to Kharkiv, a clear informational tactic to delegitimize UAF forces and portray international involvement as escalatory. NEW: TASS video of Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly in Belgorod Oblast, directly blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties. NEW: "Два майора" is amplifying the narrative that Trump is "throwing Ukraine and Europe under the bus" financially and is indifferent to peace in Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF Counter-Narratives: Providing real-time, transparent updates on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts, casualties, and the scale of the threat (397 drones, 18 missiles launched), including damage to the Vatican Embassy and Chuhuiv households, and now Chuhuiv Hospital, and Kharkiv City medical/residential facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital. Zelenskiy explicitly states RUF intent to make people suffer and flee. Rapidly debunking RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns. Confirming SBU Colonel assassination with open criminal case and investigation. Highlighting UAF air defense effectiveness (178 targets shot down, all drones neutralized in Mykolaiv area), and the securing of additional Patriot systems (10 from Germany, 1 from Norway). Showcasing UAF military successes (RUF losses, destroyed equipment, FPV drone effectiveness, urban clearing operations, successful drone strikes against RUF personnel and equipment, logistics interdiction, destruction of Buk/Strela systems, drone strikes in Lipetsk and Tula Oblasts). Emphasizing international support and financial aid (over 10 billion euros for reconstruction, €500 billion in damages from Germany, aid from Finland and Netherlands, new EU support package). Promoting domestic resilience and recovery efforts. Utilizing social media to boost morale and foster unity. Ukrainian officials, including Zelenskyy, are providing direct public addresses on support from partners and the overall strategic situation, including meetings with Bulgarian PM, EU leaders, Polish PM, and IAEA Director General. Highlighting UN report confirming increased civilian casualties due to RUF actions. Promoting the shift from Russian to Ukrainian language in society, countering RUF narratives of "protecting Russian speakers." Actively highlighting severe weather impacts in Western Ukraine to counter RUF disinformation. Continuously reporting on diplomatic engagements (Bulgarian PM meeting, EU, Polish PM). RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time, countering previous uncertainty. STERNENKO relays Senator Marco Rubio's statement that US Senate leaders are ready to act on Graham's bill, indicating continued aid. Zelenskiy met with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, thanking him for support. Countering RUF allegations of "fake" videos using Ukrainian POWs. DeepState's public sharing of "Top-10 units" with "combat points" is an effective internal and external morale and transparency tool. UPDATE: RBC-Ukraine reports Bitcoin's new historical maximum, which, while not military, can be used to signal positive economic news to a domestic audience. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump announced an important statement on Russia, which could be framed as a positive development for Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine shares photo messages about updated enemy drone movements from the Air Force, indicating transparent communication. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: High psychological distress, fear, and frustration due to protracted, multi-vector attacks, increased casualties (2 killed, 26 injured in Kyiv, 232 killed in June, 3 injured in Chuhuiv hospital, preliminary casualties in Kharkiv City, 1-3 injured in Kharkiv, Saltivskyi district hit, maternity hospital affected, 1 killed/1 injured in Lipetsk Oblast), and damage to civilian infrastructure (medical facility, Vatican Embassy, schools, Chuhuiv households, Chuhuiv Hospital, Kharkiv City residential/medical facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital). Lingering smoke and poor air quality prolong tension. Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk adds to hardship, with expressions of resignation ("Lviv region doesn't even need war today"). Public willing to contribute to war effort through donations, with ongoing successful fundraisers (STERNENKO). Concern about internal security due to SBU Colonel assassination and the alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Morale boosted by air defense successes, international aid, and visual evidence of RUF losses. Public anger evident towards RUF. Marking the Day of Remembrance for Fallen Medics highlights the ongoing human cost but also reinforces national resolve and gratitude. Continued public support for military through small donations and successful fundraisers (STERNENKO, "Шеf Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦"). Local public safety incidents, such as the knife attack in Zaporizhzhia, could impact local sentiment. "Shakhtar" victory provides a small boost to public morale. The unverified claim regarding the death of a Hungarian citizen during mobilization could, if verified, damage public trust in local authorities in Zakarpattia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Public: Morale boosted by RUF claims of military successes (Kyiv strikes, territorial gains, captured assets, successful engagements on UAF equipment, advances towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka, claims of a "tank-monster" resisting 60 drone strikes, repelled UAF breakthroughs in Belgorod, reconstruction efforts in Belgorod, restored vehicles, FPV drone liquidation of UAF positions/PVDs near Yablonovka, destruction of UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle, TOS-1A Solntsepek destroying UAF fortified area). Mobilization efforts (electronic registry) aim to project state control, though low demobilization rates might cause discontent. Internal issues (fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave discomfort, corruption purges, crime by servicemen, water poisoning, banking failures, internal crime, corruption, internal dissent like Galyashkin's arrest, the Moulin Rouge fire as a potential distraction) are managed or downplayed by state media. Internal crime and corruption cases are used to project effectiveness of state. Negative reports about RUF generals indicate internal dissent in some circles. Propaganda aims to justify the war and normalize military service, with narratives like "Rublev strengthened" serving to convey economic stability. Recognition of high ADM consumption among some milbloggers may indicate concerns about sustainability. Reports of Houthi successes might boost morale among those advocating for asymmetric warfare. Reports of internal ethnic tensions (Yugra) could hint at underlying instability. Calls for increased public assistance to the front indicate a level of ongoing public engagement. Alex Parker Returns' commentary, while internal, implies a degree of internal dissatisfaction or cynical blame-shifting. The reported VDV cadet killing a commander highlights potential severe internal discipline issues that could damage morale and trust within military ranks. ASTRA's confirmation of the VDV hazing incident will likely be a significant morale detractor. Colonelcassad's "Dreams Come True" video attempts to boost morale by focusing on soldiers' personal reflections and purpose. UPDATE: The Steam platform outage could generate minor discontent among affected users. Military award ceremonies are used to further boost morale and glorify the war. Public sentiment is being influenced by TASS reports framing cultural figures on "Myrotvorets" as evidence of Ukrainian extremism. Gladkov's interview on drone defense is likely to reassure the public about state efforts to protect them. Colonelcassad's photos from the front are intended to normalize the conflict and boost morale. NEW: TASS video of Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly in Belgorod Oblast, aiming to provoke anger and support for the war. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• International Reaction to Kyiv Attacks: Expected strong international condemnation, increasing pressure for expedited air defense. Damage to Vatican Embassy may elicit specific diplomatic responses.
• US Military Aid: Reuters confirms resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Zelenskiy reports "signals about the resumption of aid supplies" after talks with Trump. US discussing "roadmap" for conflict end. Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed, with Ukrainian losses being lower, suggesting continued international support for Ukraine's defense. US representatives participated in the "Coalition of Willing" meeting, signifying high-level engagement. Reports of strained Putin-Trump relations by NYT (RUF source) are likely disinformation, as Semafor and US Secretary of State confirm Washington's willingness for continued contacts with Moscow, implying a pragmatic, not necessarily anti-Kyiv, approach from Trump's camp. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time, confirmed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. TASS reports Pentagon intends to catch up with Russia and China in UAVs, indicating international recognition of Russian drone capabilities. TASS reports Trump's statement that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine, aiming to sow discord, and that NATO allies might purchase not only defensive but also offensive weapons from the US for transfer to Ukraine. TASS reports Trump will make an important statement on Russia on July 14, which could influence future aid discussions. UPDATE: TASS reports Trump stated final decision on new sanctions against Russia remains with him, reinforcing his potential influence on future policy. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump announced an important statement on Russia, signaling potential shifts. NEW: "Два майора" is amplifying the narrative that Trump is "throwing Ukraine and Europe under the bus" financially and is indifferent to peace in Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• French Military Aid: Production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles to resume in 2025. UK and France signed a nuclear coordination declaration. Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine confirms France and Britain will significantly increase peacekeeping forces for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UK Military Aid: Agreement signed to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• German Military Aid: Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems for Ukraine. Zelenskiy met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing military support. Zelenskyy confirms Germany will finance ten Patriot systems, and Norway will pay for one more. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. Maria Zakharova's public statement about Germany owing Russia for cultural restoration is a new, provocative diplomatic message likely intended to deflect from current war damages and undermine German support for Ukraine. UPDATE: German Chancellor Merz reiterates €500 billion compensation as condition for unblocking Russian assets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Polish Stance: RUF claims Polish President Duda threatened NATO with closing aid channels/Rzeszów airport (unverified, likely disinformation). Polish PM Donald Tusk met with Zelenskyy, confirming defense support and participation in recovery efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Internal Issues: Ongoing internal issues (corruption cases, arrests, economic policies, human rights concerns regarding recruitment via detainees) continue to be managed. TASS reports PSB ensures uninterrupted pension payments to Russian citizens in Abkhazia, highlighting financial stability efforts in occupied territories. Internal ethnic/political tensions (Yugra deputy statements, "foreign agent" cases) continue. SBP system recovered after disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Ukrainian Financial Needs: Continued critical requirement for external financial support. Receipt of 1 billion and 2.3 billion euros from EU. Norway allocated $200M for energy sector. Finland and Netherlands provided 300 million euros each for recovery. Zelenskyy hints at "unexpected signals" regarding defense financing. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome. Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 (URC 2025) participation by EU leaders confirms high-level commitment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Lithuanian Security Incident: Russian "Gerbera" drone fell in Lithuania, unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters – significant diplomatic incident and border provocation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Caucasus Diplomacy: Lavrov at ASEAN, meeting with Chinese MFA and Rubio. Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan UAV exercises reported by RUF. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees, indicating a potential shift in regional dynamics or a move against Russian influence. Russian milblogger "Военкор Котенок" highlights EU focus on peace and international law in Black Sea region and and South Caucasus, implying the EU's geopolitical interests. NEW: Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar, indicating potential trade friction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Starlink Mobile Internet: Mobile internet Starlink to launch in Ukraine in summer 2026. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Moldova Political Dynamics: Gagauz leader Gutsul heads Moldovan opposition list, extended arrest. Ursula von der Leyen's position as European Commission head is stable (RUF source "Rybar" confirms "Ursula remains"). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• EU Sanctions: Reuters reports EU Commission will propose a floating price cap on Russian oil, indicating continued economic pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Israel-Gaza Conflict: TASS reports Israel agrees to diplomatic settlement but is ready to use force, which is a regional development but not directly related to Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Hungary-Ukraine Relations: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia, potentially leading to increased diplomatic tension and a recall of the Ukrainian ambassador by Hungary. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border): RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar - critical breakthrough attempt, Siversk, Pokrovsk directions, Karlo Marksa, Yablonovka), Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Hatnye - Ambarne line), and border suppression in Sumy/Kursk (e.g., Alexandrovka). They will attempt to consolidate gains and conduct incremental advances, supported by drones (including updated Lancets), MRLS, and KAB/KARs (including UMPBs). Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities (Chuhuiv hospital, Kharkiv city medical facilities, maternity hospital), and logistics (truck convoys, Starlink equipment, UAF positions/PVDs near Yablonovka, "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka). Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify, specifically regarding UAF abandoning wounded soldiers and alleged chemical weapon use, and emphasizing claimed UAF desertions. RUF will use propaganda materials, including those allegedly from captured UAF IPSO personnel, to discredit Ukrainian information operations. Efforts to enhance vehicle survivability against drone threats (e.g., "tank-monster" claims) will continue. RUF will continue "fire sweeping" operations in areas like Huliaipole to fix or probe UAF positions. The alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF will pursue unconventional sabotage methods against military personnel. NEW: RUF will leverage claims of foreign mercenary presence in Kharkiv to justify increased targeting or to escalate narratives of NATO involvement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Increased Frequency, Volume, and Protracted Complexity of Aerial Strikes on Deep Targets: RUF will maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, from multiple vectors, to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect new UAV groups to target Kharkiv (Lyubotyn, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv city, Saltivskyi district, and from Sumy direction), Mykolaiv (from Kherson, specifically Balovne, Ochakiv, and Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy suburbs (Khotyn), and now Lipetsk Oblast (agricultural enterprises), and Tula Oblast (defense industry enterprises). Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage (e.g., Chuhuiv private households, Chuhuiv hospital, Kharkiv City residential/medical facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital, Lipetsk agricultural enterprise), and continued targeting of military-industrial complex sites. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. The use of mobile drone launch platforms will complicate detection and interdiction. Fighterbomber's "Night will be hot!" message suggests continued intense aerial activity. Expect continued UAV activity in border regions of Russia, potentially targeting infrastructure in Kursk and Lipetsk Oblasts, and now Tula Oblast and Smolensk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging military actions for propaganda and escalating inflammatory disinformation. Claims of UAF desertions or internal discord, particularly regarding the treatment of wounded, are likely to increase, potentially with more detailed "evidence." RUF will continue internal security operations (arrests, counter-terrorism, "foreign agent" repression, suppression of internal dissent, targeting alleged Ukrainian saboteurs/terrorists like Kurshutov). Internal propaganda will attempt to manage the narrative around incidents like the VDV cadet killing a commander, likely by emphasizing "personal animosity" or UAF influence, but the confirmation of hazing will make this more challenging. TASS will continue to frame Russia as a proponent of "truth and honest analysis of facts" globally, and Maria Zakharova will continue to push provocative diplomatic narratives. They will actively counter Ukrainian reports of successful breakthroughs into Belgorod Oblast, and highlight reconstruction efforts, including restored vehicles, while acknowledging limitations due to border proximity. New attempts to stir diplomatic incidents, such as the unverified claim regarding a Hungarian citizen's death in Zakarpattia, are likely. TASS will continue to amplify Trump's statements about NATO allies paying for US weapons for Ukraine, and his upcoming July 14 statement on Russia, and the potential for NATO allies to purchase offensive weapons for Ukraine, to influence international discourse. TASS will also highlight Putin's direct involvement in managing border security issues in Belgorod, projecting strong leadership. RUF will continue to frame their cultural figures on "Myrotvorets" as victims of Ukrainian extremism. NEW: TASS will continue to use claims of UAF consciously targeting civilians in Belgorod Oblast to bolster narratives of Ukrainian aggression. NEW: "Два майора" will continue to amplify messages critical of Western aid to Ukraine, framing it as futile or financially exploitative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to strengthen ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity, including exploiting perceived shifts in US foreign policy (Trump's position on sanctions). Likely to continue using foreign natural disasters for propaganda and testing NATO's resolve through border provocations (UAVs in Lithuania). RUF will attempt to project strength and stability on the international stage. NEW: Potential for increased trade friction with countries like Azerbaijan, possibly linked to political signaling. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone/Counter-UAV Tech & ADM Efficiency: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability (as implied by "tank-monster" claims) and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities. They will also explore and promote concepts for cheaper, high-volume air defense systems (e.g., turboprop aircraft) to counter drone threats, acknowledging the high consumption rate of current ADMs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

• Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast to further divert UAF resources. The commitment of the 83rd AAB to Vovchansk indicates a higher probability of this envelopment attempt. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. The "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar indicate a clear intent to achieve a breakthrough, increasing the risk. This could be coupled with intensified offensive action on the Pokrovsk axis to prevent UAF reserve redeployment. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack, citing "technical assistance" from OPCW as justification, and specifically using recent claims of UAF dropping poisonous substances (e.g., in Kursk Oblast) as a direct and immediate trigger. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
  • Continue Damage Control: Maintain immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv (casualalty count now 26 injured) and Chuhuiv, including the attacked hospital. Respond to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital, with at least 3 injured. Respond to civilian casualties in Lipetsk Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured).
  • Air Defense Alert: Monitor for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by new RUF UAV groups towards Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts (Lutsk, Lviv, Chernivtsi, Ternopil), Kharkiv (Lyubotyn, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, and from Sumy direction), Mykolaiv (from Kherson, especially Balovne, Ochakiv, and Mykolaiv suburbs), and especially in Sumy suburbs (Khotyn). Current RUF drone activity is concentrated in Donetsk Oblast, Mykolaiv, and Sumy; monitor for shifts. UAF drone safety operations in Russian border regions likely to continue, especially after the Kursk agro-holding fire and Tula explosions. Monitor for KAB launches towards Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Monitor for re-imposition of flight restrictions at Russian airports, particularly Zhukovsky.
  • Intelligence Verification: Verify RUF claims of UAF battalion HQ desertion in Sumy, specific hits on Kyiv factories, Tolstoi FAB strike, UAF armored vehicle destruction, UAF dropping poisonous substances in Kursk Oblast, and UAF abandoning wounded soldiers. Confirm details of SBU Colonel assassination and its internal security implications. Verify claimed maritime attacks in Red Sea for potential RUF emulation tactics. Verify RUF claims of Starlink and D-20 howitzer destruction. Clarify conflicting reports on Penza TETs fire. Verify claimed increase in UAF desertion as per Colonelcassad's graph. Verify the extent of FPV drone attacks on Dobropillia. Investigate the VDV cadet killing commander report, particularly the hazing aspect, for broader implications on RUF internal discipline and morale. Conduct BDA on the Kursk agro-holding fire and Tula explosions to confirm UAV involvement. Assess the "tank-monster" claims for veracity and any new defensive adaptations. Verify RUF claims of successfully repelling breakthroughs into Belgorod Oblast. Verify the unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Monitor the Steam platform outage in Russia for any wider implications beyond a simple technical fault. Verify claimed FPV drone liquidation of UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. Verify the FSB claim about the alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Verify RUF claims of destroying UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Confirm casualties and damage in Kharkiv City. Confirm the specific targets of the 7 UAV hits in Chuhuivskyi district. Verify RUF claim of foreign mercenaries from six NATO countries in Kharkiv. Assess RUF claims of UAF attempting to build defenses in Hatnye - Ambarne line in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Counter-Propaganda: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives about abandoning wounded soldiers. Counter disinformation regarding Putin-Trump relations, particularly Trump's statements about NATO allies paying for US weapons and his upcoming Russia statement, and the potential for NATO allies to purchase offensive weapons for Ukraine. Proactively highlight damage to civilian structures, including the Vatican Embassy, Chuhuiv households, Chuhuiv hospital, and Kharkiv City residential/medical facilities, Saltivskyi district, maternity hospital. Counter Alex Parker Returns' narrative about Dnieper bridges. Counter RUF allegations of "fake" videos using Ukrainian POWs. Directly counter TASS's statement about "truth and honest analysis of facts" by highlighting RUF disinformation. Address Zakharova's provocative statement on Dresden gallery. Counter the unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Counter RUF narrative about cultural figures on Myrotvorets. Counter the alleged poisoning plot narrative from TASS. Immediately counter RUF claims of foreign mercenaries from six NATO countries in Kharkiv, emphasizing the voluntary nature of foreign fighters and sovereignty. Counter RUF claims of UAF consciously targeting civilians in Belgorod Oblast. Counter "Два майора" narrative that Trump is abandoning Ukraine.
  • Monitor RUF Tactical Shifts: Observe RUF border actions and any specific tactical shifts on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Novoseklovske, Kupyansk/Svatove, and Krasnolimansky directions, including advances towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka, and fire sweeping operations in Huliaipole. Monitor predicted severe weather in Bryansk and its impact on RUF operations. Assess the impact of mobile RAM pickup Geran launchers. Monitor "Два майора" and Rybar for further operational updates and propaganda, and Fighterbomber for indications of future aerial activity.
• SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
  • Air Defense Allocation: Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions following the intensified Kyiv attack and new drone activity in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Sumy. Prioritize allocation and delivery of newly committed Patriot systems (Germany 10, Norway 1). Re-evaluate ADM expenditure rates given Zelenskyy's statement on shooting down high volumes of UAVs.
  • Frontline Defense: Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk, Donbas (especially Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions), and intensified envelopment attempts in Kharkiv (Vovchansk) with the 83rd AAB. Continue UAF cross-border drone activity, including logistics interdiction and high-value asset targeting (e.g., AA systems, armored vehicles) in Kursk, Lipetsk, and Tula Oblasts. Commanders on Kramatorsk axis need to action contingency plans for troop rotation and rest.
  • System Restoration: Address "Rerezerv+" app outage.
  • Financial Aid Integration: Assess immediate impact of EU financial tranches and the 10+ billion euros pledged for reconstruction, and new aid from Finland and Netherlands.
  • Force Protection: Prioritize immediate delivery and deployment of anti-thermal cloaks for infantry on Orikhiv and Toretsk directions.
  • Counter-UAS/EW Deployment: Rapid deployment of additional counter-UAS and EW assets to the Chasiv Yar sector. Address high FPV drone volumes in areas like Dobropillia.
  • Internal Security: Monitor and respond to internal public safety incidents as reported in Zaporizhzhia, and investigate the alleged poisoning plot.
• MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
  • Aid Effectiveness: Monitor the impact of new US and EU aid deliveries on battlefield dynamics.
  • RUF Adaptations: Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their efforts to enhance their own drone and counter-UAV technologies, including any new ADM concepts or maritime asymmetric warfare tactics.
  • Internal RUF Dynamics: Monitor internal Russian political and social dynamics for long-term force generation implications (electronic conscription registry, low demobilization rates, internal ethnic tensions, and suppression of dissent, including incidents like the VDV cadet killing commander and hazing, and Steam platform outages).
  • Strategic Assessment: Assess the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure and resource constraints, and the SBU Colonel assassination on Ukrainian internal security. CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all points listed within the timeframe.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
   • GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Are current integrated multi-wave, prolonged attacks a new standard? What types of ballistic missiles are used and their vectors (e.g., debris in Vinohradar)? What is the current Su-34 production/deployment rate? Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv (Lyubotyn, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City, Saltivskyi district, and from Sumy direction), Mykolaiv (from Kherson, especially Balovne, Ochakiv, and Mykolaiv suburbs), Sumy (Khotyn), Lipetsk Oblast (Khlevensky district), and Tula Oblast (Proletarskyi district, defense industry enterprises). Origin and capability of the "Gerbera" drone in Lithuania and unknown drone from Belarus. Accuracy and impact of claimed strikes on Kyiv factories. Production status and capabilities of homemade UGVs. Current inventory and production rates for RUF FPV drones. Production and deployment status of UMPB D-30SN glide bombs. What is the RUF capacity to emulate Houthi-style maritime attacks (USVs/ballistic missiles against shipping)? Extent of deployment and effectiveness of new mobile drone launch platforms (RAM pickups). How do Zelenskyy's claims on drone interception rates reconcile with UAF ADM expenditure? What are the capabilities of the "updated Lancet: Izdelie 51" loitering munitions, specifically regarding range, payload, and targeting systems?
   • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base, analyze flight patterns of combined attacks, forensic analysis of missile debris, track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Coordinate BDA with Lithuanian authorities. Conduct BDA on claimed Kyiv factory hits. OSINT and TECHINT on RUF UGV, UMPB, FPV, and updated Lancet drone production/deployment. Monitor RUF interest/capabilities in asymmetric maritime warfare. IMINT and OSINT on mobile drone launch platforms. Reconcile UAF ADM expenditure with Zelenskyy's claims.
2. UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
   • GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense, after the latest intense, prolonged combined attack (397 drones, 18 missiles) and the new UAV activity in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy (Khotyn), and Tula Oblast, Chuhuiv, and Kharkiv City. What are the specific delivery timelines for the 10 Patriot systems from Germany and 1 from Norway? What is the current status of Ukrainian domestic Patriot analogue development?
   • CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements to gauge expenditure rates. TECHINT on domestic ADM development.
3. Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Desertions (Sumy Ammunition Depot, Bessalivka VDV, Sumy Desertion, RUF "Zapad" claims, Lutsk Missile Division, Siversk/Chasiv Yar advances, Shebekino civilian casualties, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka/Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka/Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad advances, Melitopol Agents, Crimea Agent, UAF excavator destruction, Mykolaiv Iskander strike, Sumy Medical Facility, Voskresenka Engagements, SBU Colonel Assassination, Ternopil Crematoria, Tetkino Border Actions, Pokrovsk Engagements, Tolstoi FAB Strike, UAF Armored Vehicle Destruction, Izium Artillery, UAF Van Destruction, Sumy border manpower liquidation, Kupyansk/Svatove tactical situation, Kharkiv pickup/combat vehicle destruction, Karlo Marksa liberation, Konstantinovka Paladin Strike, Russian Railway Strikes, Makeevka Fires, Kherson Infiltration, UAF dropping poisonous substances in Kursk Oblast, Chervone PVD strike, Ocheretyne tank destruction, Vinokos vehicle destruction, Sumy SSO officer losses, Captured UAF Soldiers, UAF abandoning wounded soldiers, Starlink/D-20 destruction, Penza TETs fire, Zelenyi Hai/Borovska Andriivka advances, Dobropillia FPV volume, Kursk Agro-holding Fire, "Tank-Monster" durability, Huliaipole fire sweeping effectiveness, Belgorod breakthroughs, Zakarpattia mobilization death, restored vehicles in Belgorod, Yablonovka PVD destruction, Chuhuiv private household destruction, Chuhuiv hospital attack, Tula Explosions, Zaporizhzhia Poisoning Plot, Verolyubovka Kozak destruction, Lipetsk Oblast drone strike civilian casualties, Kharkiv City center/residential/medical facility strikes, TOS-1A Solntsepek strike, foreign mercenaries in Kharkiv, UAF Hatnye - Ambarne line defenses in Kharkiv Oblast, Gladkov's claims of conscious targeting of civilians in Belgorod Oblast):
   • GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka), precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes (Mykolaiv, Chervone), claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles (Tolstoi FAB, "Vinokos" video, 56th Brigade, "tank-monster", "Kozak" near Verolyubovka), alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination. Verification of RUF claims of UAF SSO officer losses in Sumy. Assessment of veracity of RUF videos showing captured UAF soldiers. Precise location, composition, and readiness of newly committed 83rd AAB elements in Kharkiv direction, and their intended axis of advance. Sustainability of RUF high tempo artillery fire on Eastern Front. Specific systems and effective ranges of RUF EW capabilities degrading UAF UAS operations near Chasiv Yar. Clarification on Penza TETs fire origin. Verification of over 100 FPV drones launched in Dobropillia. Confirmation of specific details of the VDV cadet killing a commander, including the alleged abuse and if additional sabotaged parachutes were found. Confirmation of UAV involvement in Kursk agro-holding fire, and the nature of the lights observed in the ASTRA video. Assess the BDA on Tula explosions for UAV involvement. Investigate the "tank-monster" claims for evidence of new armor/defensive systems. Verification of RUF claims of repelling UAF breakthroughs in Belgorod. Verification of the unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Verification of the numbers and extent of restored vehicles in Belgorod Oblast, and the reasons for stalled reconstruction in some border villages. Verification of alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Confirmation of UAF drone attack on Lipetsk Oblast agricultural enterprise and the specific target in Tula Oblast (defense industry facilities). Confirmation of civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv City. Confirmation of the specific targets of the 7 UAV hits in Chuhuivskyi district. Independent verification of TOS-1A Solntsepek strike claims, and specifically the destruction of drone launch points. Verify the presence and composition of foreign mercenaries in Kharkiv. Verify the status and progress of UAF defenses at Hatnye - Ambarne line in Kharkiv Oblast. Analyze the TASS video of Gladkov's claims for any corroborating evidence or inconsistencies.
   • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification of claimed RUF advances/destruction. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications to identify confirmed tactical successes/failures. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination. Engage international bodies (OPCW) for independent verification of chemical weapon claims. Conduct detailed analysis of RUF propaganda videos for inconsistencies or signs of staging. Task ISR assets (UAV, satellite) to identify and track elements of the 83rd AAB west of Vovchansk. Focus collection on enemy logistical hubs supporting the Kramatorsk axis. Technical intelligence (TECHINT) collection on RUF EW systems. HUMINT and OSINT on the VDV academy incident to gauge its broader impact on morale and discipline. Conduct BDA on Kursk agro-holding, Tula Oblast defense enterprises, and Lipetsk Oblast agricultural enterprise for UAV remnants and analyze the ASTRA video for additional insights. Investigate the "tank-monster" claims for evidence of new armor/defensive systems. HUMINT and forensic investigation into alleged poisoning plot. HUMINT and SIGINT on foreign fighters in Kharkiv, including their origin and capabilities. IMINT and OSINT on UAF defensive preparations in Kharkiv.
4. Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry & Demobilization:
   • GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry in addressing manpower shortfalls. What is the actual compliance rate and the impact on Russian society and economy? What are the factors contributing to the extremely low demobilization rate, and what is its long-term impact on RUF personnel morale and combat effectiveness?
   • CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes. Analyze the implications of low demobilization rates for troop rotation and rest.
5. UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
   • GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes.
   • CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units.
6. Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
   • GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US (155mm, GMLRS, Trump-approved weapons), UK (Thales AA missiles), German (Patriots), and Norwegian (energy sector), Finnish and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems.
   • CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment.
7. RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
   • GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, and suppression of dissent, including incidents like the VDV cadet killing commander and hazing, and Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports) are diverting significant resources (personnel, equipment, funds) from military operations in Ukraine.
   • CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts.

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END OF REPORT