SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 101759Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kyiv Oblast: RUF conducted a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours, employing both drones and ballistic missiles. Casualties have risen to two (2) killed and twenty-five (25) injured. Kyiv City, particularly Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, and Podilskyi districts, suffered significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings and a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium, which is almost completely destroyed. Firefighting operations are concluded. Missile debris was found in Vinohradar. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes are temporarily changed. New RUF UAV groups were moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, passing Priuky and Oster, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv, and specifically on Artyom, Meridian, Aviadynamics, Analitpribor, and Kuznya na Rybalskom factories. A severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), a natural event that could impact local infrastructure. Post-attack, Ukrainian officials report that movement has been restored on all street sections. Rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris from damaged apartment buildings, with visible damaged vehicles and shattered glass. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries, with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Dachne claim, Dobropillia incident, Soledar visuals, ASTRA casualty report, DeepState FPV strikes, Pokrovsk engagements, Makeevka fires), MEDIUM (TASS FAB strike claim in Tolstoi).
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. OTU "Kharkiv" released video of UAF ISR efforts with a fixed-wing aircraft 'КАРА-ДАГ'. RUF sources report FPV drone destruction of UAF pickup/combat vehicles. Over 246 hectares demined over the past week. Tactical maps for Kupyansk direction released by RUF sources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast - via Berezne, Rivne Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi (via Zastavna), and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement and potentially diverting resources. RUF claims a strike on a missile division in Lutsk (unverified). CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAV threats, flooding), LOW (Lutsk strike claim).
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down, and a significant fire occurred at a power substation (TETs), likely due to a successful UAF drone strike. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms video of a "transit transformer" fire. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. RUF reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs active. RUF claims losses among UAF SSO officers. Kadyrov_95 reports "Akhmat" special forces, FPV drone groups, and artillery engaged in "clearing enemy positions" in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast, supported by drone video showing explosions in a forested area. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka, with video evidence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions (including 3 over Moscow, 5 over Bryansk, and one over Penza). New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. TASS reports FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv; multiple RUF and UAF sources confirm incident. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow (Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky) and Kaluga airports due to drone activity. ASTRA reports Russian MVD declared former lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov and Yevgeny Chichvarkin wanted. MoD Russia states 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings regarding the progress of the "special military operation" as of July 10, 2025, detailing claimed losses and positional gains across various sectors, including Sever, West, South, and Dnipro. TASS reports flight restrictions lifted for Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO continues destroying enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. "BARS-Crimea" exercises ongoing in Chernomorsky district. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area (more than 2 km west of Voskresenka). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction (incl. Karpivka) and Grigorievka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. UAF soldier from 14th National Guard Brigade liquidated Russian motorcyclist behind enemy lines. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UUF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF video shows successful infiltration and engagement by 'PAPAY'. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced an air danger regime across the entire region, specifically Elets and Eletskiy district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack, citing Khinshtein. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Svatove Direction (Lozova): RUF tactical maps for the "Svatovskoye Direction" (Lozova) showing claimed control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow (TASS, ASTRA). Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality, despite fires being extinguished. A severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), which could cause localized damage and transport disruption. Electricity deficit in Kyiv due to heat.
Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and likely strains emergency services, potentially diverting resources. New video confirms extensive flooding in Lviv residential areas, impacting civilian infrastructure.
Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis.
Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11, potentially impacting visibility, ground movement, and local infrastructure near the border.
Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines.
Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF:
- Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against drones and ballistic missiles for 10-11 hours, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully intercepted 5 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk and engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Lutsk, Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Cherkasy. UAF Air Force video documents combat operations by Air Command "Center." President Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. He also states that with the Patriot issue resolved, the threat from ballistic missiles will be eliminated. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Zelenskyy stating Germany is ready to pay for 10 American Patriot systems and their missiles. RBC-Ukraine discusses domestic development of Patriot analogues.
- Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground assaults on critical axes, including in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, and Karlo Marksa), Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. Naval Infantry (34th Brigade) training photos released. Omega-West special forces conducting urban clearing operations. 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Veliky Lug" conducting successful drone strikes. BUTUSOV PLUS (Ukrainian source) claims a drone strike against a RUF soldier in a field. STERNENKO reports ongoing destruction of Russian logistics via drone footage of a truck convoy. "Nikolaevsky Vanok" shares video of a RUF soldier being destroyed. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images showing a significant shift in language use in Ukraine from Russian to Ukrainian, highlighting cultural resilience.
- Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting (completed in Kyiv), and casualty management in Kyiv (2 killed, 25 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment restoration. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Coordination Staff hosted presentation on human rights violations in occupied Crimea/Southern Ukraine. UAF General Staff meeting to address military medicine problems. OTU "Kharkiv" observes July 10 as the Day of Remembrance for Fallen Medics. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports continued public donations for small needs for soldiers, even without official fundraising calls. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" mentions aid and support for comrades.
- Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Office of Prosecutor General exposing large-scale production of fake excise stamps in Kharkiv Oblast; reported suspicion to former Kyiv City Council Secretary/Deputy Mayor. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan, using frozen Russian assets. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference with Ukrainian and foreign media. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives, discussing long-term security. The Zaporizhzhia OVA shares a similar video. Oleg Syniehubov shares the same video. Serhii Lysak of Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports on meetings at URC 2025 with partners like UNICEF for child-focused initiatives and urgent needs. Два майора reports Ukraine will receive over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction at the Rome conference.
- Key Capabilities: High readiness in air defense, effective tactical drone use, urban combat capabilities, internal anti-corruption and counter-sabotage operations, successful diplomatic efforts for financial and military aid (1 billion and 2.3 billion EU aid, UK supplying 5000 AA missiles, Norway $200M for energy, US resuming 155mm and GMLRS, Germany willing to pay for Patriots), domestic defense production (fiber optic drones), veteran support programs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF:
- Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. Claimed strike on Lutsk missile division (unverified). Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. MoD Russia released video showing artillery firing and a drone view of the impact zone, claiming success against enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. "Dva Mayora" released a video showing what they claim are "morning Iskanders on Kyiv," depicting aerial explosions over a cityscape. "Операция Z" shares video of night mass strike on Kyiv showing damaged residential buildings and emergency response. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a photo of a UMPB D-30SN glide bomb with a dedication, indicating continued use of guided aerial munitions.
- Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka, Izium, Svatove direction towards Lozova). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF "Vostok" Group drone operators claim destruction of UAF excavator. RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army engaged UAF positions near Voskresenka. 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles. 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade claimed systemic destruction of UAF personnel and firing points in buildings in Chervone. Colonelcassad (Russian source) claims drone destruction of a 120mm mortar system by reconnaissance elements of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade in the South-Donetsk direction. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast, involving reconnaissance, FPV drones, and artillery for "clearing enemy positions." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares images of Russian forces in the Sumy and Krasnoarmeysk directions.
- Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment (e.g., thermal imagers, Mavic 3 Pro drones). Internal issues (arrests, corruption convictions, crime by servicemen, water poisoning, banking failures) persist but are managed. Home-made UGV development. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options against UAVs, including a "Super Tucano" type aircraft, indicating a recognition of high attrition rates for ADMs.
- Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Internal legal proceedings against officials (Ivanov, Smirnov, Rybyantsev, Kehman, Dmitry Zakhvatov, Yevgeny Chichvarkin). Detention of "Azerbaijani nationalist." Colonelcassad shares video of an alleged "terrorist" detained in Crimea, showing tactical equipment.
- Key Capabilities: Complex, multi-domain deep strikes, sustained attritional ground operations, FPV drone effectiveness, KAB/KAR precision strikes, effective counter-UAV capabilities, internal counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism operations, coercive manpower generation (electronic conscription), internal propaganda, efforts to foster military cooperation (Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan UAV exercises). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes (10-11 hours on Kyiv) integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones (397 drones, 18 missiles). Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting (e.g., Paladin near Konstantinovka, UAF vehicles in Kharkiv, 120mm mortar). Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy border) accepting heavy casualties. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (98th Airborne Division, "Rubikon" crews, 14 jet-type UAVs shot down over Bryansk, 26 UAVs destroyed in 3 hours over Russia). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus (Melitopol, Crimea agent detentions, Krasnodar Kray terrorist prevention). Sustained domestic defense industrial output (new Su-34s, UMPB D-30SN glide bombs). Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization (electronic conscription registry). Developing homemade UGVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks on Kyiv is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personnel, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure (medical ambulatorium, schools) confirms this. Zelenskyy states Russia's intent to make people suffer and flee.
- Degrade UAF Military-Industrial Complex: Explicit intent to target Kyiv factories (Artyom, Meridian, Aviadynamics, Analitpribor, Kuznya na Rybalskom) and military airfield infrastructure to reduce UAF combat capabilities.
- Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Pokrovsk directions, Karlo Marksa), Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), and Sumy border areas (Alexandrovka), aiming for tactical advances and consolidation.
- Disrupt UAF Logistics & C2: Continue targeting UAF rear areas, supply points (e.g., claimed Iskander strikes on PVDs in Mykolaiv and Kherson), and engineering equipment (UAF excavator). Targeting UAF rotation attempts (pickup truck near Yanvarskyi). Actively seeking to destroy UAF logistics (e.g., truck convoys).
- Subvert Ukrainian Internal Security: The alleged SBU Colonel assassination demonstrates an intent to cause internal instability and degrade key security personnel.
- Intensify Information Warfare: Sustain and escalate disinformation campaigns (chemical weapons false flag pretexts, UAF desertion claims, civilian targeting claims, exploiting natural disasters, "crematoria" narrative, abandoning wounded soldiers) to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion.
- Secure Manpower & Resources: Continue forced mobilization efforts and leverage public support for equipment procurement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kupyansk/Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka, Izium, Svatove direction towards Lozova) and Kherson direction. They will maintain border suppression and localized incursions (Alexandrovka, Tetkino, Figolevka, Sumy border areas). RUF will sustain the increased frequency, volume, and protracted complexity of aerial strikes on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, from multiple vectors, to saturate air defenses. Continued use of FPV drones, KAB/KARs (UMPBs), and precision missiles (Iskander) for tactical and deep strikes. Increased information operations focusing on demoralization, false flag pretexts (e.g., chemical weapons claims, newly, claims of UAF using poisonous substances, abandoning wounded), discrediting UAF, and promoting internal instability. Persistent reconnaissance activities over Ukraine. Continued diplomatic pressure on allies. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis): Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast to further divert UAF resources. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- MDCOA (Chemical Weapon False Flag): RUF executes a false flag chemical attack on a civilian area or on its own forces, using recent claims of UAF using poisonous substances as a direct pretext. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF:
- Aerial Attack Integration: Adapting by extending the duration (10-11 hours) and integrating ballistic missiles with Shahed drones in multi-vector, immediate follow-up attacks on Kyiv to overwhelm air defenses and maximize psychological impact. Now explicitly claiming strikes on military-industrial complex targets. Continued development and deployment of advanced glide bombs (UMPB D-30SN).
- Tactical Exploitation: Increased focus on exploiting perceived UAF weaknesses (e.g., claimed desertion of 150th Brigade in Sumy, abandoning wounded) through information operations or localized ground pressure. Adapting to target UAF engineering assets (excavator), and rotation attempts (pickup truck). Implementing "clearing operations" with combined special forces, FPV drones, and artillery in border areas.
- Targeting Precision: Confirmed adaptation for precision long-range strikes against UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs) using Iskander missiles. Systematic targeting of UAF personnel and firing points in buildings (Chervone). Precision drone strikes on UAF mortar positions. Active targeting of UAF logistics (truck convoys).
- Information Operations: Adapting by providing more detailed, visual "frontline briefings" and quickly countering international criticism. Producing counter-propaganda videos (e.g., alleged UAF use of captured RUF servicemen for propaganda). Explicitly linking civilian casualties to Ukrainian units ("Azov"). State media (TASS, MoD Russia) are rapidly reporting UAF UAV shootdowns over Russian territory and associated casualties, highlighting Ukrainian aggression and Russian air defense effectiveness. Colonelcassad provides daily operational updates leveraging on-the-ground reports and maps. Intensifying narratives about Ukraine abandoning its wounded soldiers.
- Internal Security: Enhanced counter-intelligence operations (Melitopol, Crimea agent detentions, 'Operation Cobweb' truck driver arrest), and internal counter-terrorism (Krasnodar Kray, Crimea detention).
- Force Generation: Significant adaptation with the full operationalization of the electronic conscription registry for forced mobilization.
- Resource Leveraging: Increased reliance on public donations for tactical equipment. Proposing alternative, cheaper air defense solutions (e.g., turboprop aircraft) to counter drone threats, indicating high ADM expenditure.
- Tactical Innovation: Development of homemade UGVs, adapting to new combat roles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF:
- Air Defense Resilience: Demonstrating rapid and sustained response to the prolonged, integrated multi-vector aerial attacks on Kyiv, indicating adaptive and resilient air defense C2 and execution. Adapting to RUF's new daylight drone tactics. Actively seeking more Patriot systems through international partners, with success in securing German and Norwegian commitments. Discussing domestic development of Patriot analogues.
- Decentralized Defense: Strategic adaptation through the experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations.
- Logistical Streamlining: DeepState reports on Brave1 Market and DOT-Chain Defence platforms for faster drone/EW procurement, indicating adapted logistical and procurement processes. Actively sharing successful deep strikes on Russian logistics.
- Tactical Engagement: Continued effective use of FPV drones for tactical engagements and offensive drone capabilities by airmobile forces. Successful urban combat and clearing operations by special forces. Ukrainian sources are sharing drone footage of successful engagements against RUF personnel.
- Information Counter-Offensive: Proactive and transparent public reporting on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts, casualties, and the scale of the threat (397 drones, 18 missiles launched). Direct countering of RUF chemical weapons disinformation and "crematoria" false flag narratives. Rapid response and investigation of the SBU Colonel assassination. Leveraging international platforms to communicate Ukraine's resolve and needs. Zelenskyy is actively communicating on international support and financial needs, as well as the conditions for negotiations. Highlighting increased civilian casualties from RUF attacks (UN report). Actively promoting the shift from Russian to Ukrainian language in society, countering RUF narratives of "protecting Russian speakers."
- Resource Mobilization: Successfully leveraging public donations for tactical drones (fiber optic drones, Mavic 3 Pro) and unit sustainment. Securing significant international financial and military aid (EU, UK, US, Norway, Germany).
- Internal Governance: Ongoing adaptation and focus on internal anti-corruption (KMDA officials, fake excise stamps) and law enforcement (contract killing prevention, arsonist detention). Proactive addressing of military medicine issues. Active policing efforts against organized crime (Dnipropetrovsk gang). Civilian leadership (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) actively engaged in international cooperation for reconstruction and humanitarian aid. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF:
- Deep Strike Munitions: Sustained, high-volume, multi-domain deep strike capabilities indicate robust production/procurement and sustainment chains for ballistic missiles and Shahed drones. New Su-34 deliveries support continued KAB/KAR use. Development and deployment of UMPB D-30SN glide bombs.
- Tactical Supply Chain: Evidence of tactical shortfalls, with continued reliance on public donations for certain equipment (thermal imagers, Mavic 3 Pro drones, armored vehicle maintenance). However, sustained ground operations imply functioning supply lines for ammunition and fuel. Recruitment of detainees and electronic conscription aim to address manpower sustainment. "Старше Эдды" comments on high anti-aircraft missile consumption, implying a strain on ADM logistics.
- Internal Challenges: Persistent internal issues (forest fires, oil spills, water poisoning, banking system failures, internal crime, corruption) could strain long-term resource allocation, but do not appear to immediately impact frontline logistics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Deep Strike, Aircraft Production), MEDIUM (Tactical Supply Chain).
UAF:
- Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE CONSTRAINT. The protracted, multi-vector, and high-volume RUF aerial attacks on Kyiv place extreme strain on interceptor stockpiles. Recent aid announcements (UK 5000 AA missiles, Germany 10 Patriots, Norway 1 Patriot, US 155mm & GMLRS) are crucial but require consistent delivery. Ukrainian expert comments on high cost of Patriot analogue development, reinforcing reliance on foreign procurement.
- Medical/Emergency Services: Under strain due to increased civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly in Kyiv. UAF General Staff explicitly acknowledges "problematic issues" in military medicine. OTU "Kharkiv" highlights the importance of fallen medics.
- Financial Sustainment: Continued critical requirement for external financial support (approx. $3 billion USD/month) for non-military operations. Recent EU tranches (1 billion, 2.3 billion euros) and Norwegian aid ($200M for energy) provide some relief. Zelenskyy projects Putin will spend 300 billion USD on war next year, implicitly highlighting Ukraine's need for continued financial support. Zelenskyy provides "unexpected signals" on defense financing. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome.
- Tactical Equipment: Continued reliance on external (volunteer/donor) support for tactical drones and power solutions. Slowdown in some fundraising efforts (e.g., fiber optic drones) could be a constraint. Public donations for soldiers' "small needs" persist. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain, protracted aerial strikes on Kyiv from multiple vectors. Effective tactical C2 for frontline operations, MRLS, KAB/KAR deployment, and drone use, including combined special forces-drone-artillery operations (Alexandrovka). Demonstrates effective C2 for counter-intelligence, internal security, and information operations, rapidly disseminating narratives and managing internal messaging. Evidence of C2 for regional military cooperation (Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan). Strong C2 for forced manpower generation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, managing local civilian emergency responses, and conducting BDA. Effective tactical C2 for frontline situational awareness, combat operations, and drone deployment (e.g., FPV strikes, urban clearing, logistics interdiction). Demonstrates effective C2 for internal governance (anti-corruption, law enforcement) and for leveraging international financial and military support. Strategic communication C2 is strong, providing transparent updates and countering RUF disinformation. Proactive C2 for addressing military medicine challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a critical and active air defense network defending against complex, multi-vector, and prolonged RUF aerial attacks across the country, especially in Kyiv and Western Oblasts. Frontline units are holding defensive positions and conducting active engagements against RUF ground advances across multiple axes in Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Maintaining capability for deep drone strikes into Russia and logistics interdiction. Southern Defense Forces are engaged in active defense and striking RUF positions. Posture of decentralized air defense through volunteer groups. UAF special forces are postured for urban combat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and sustained air defense responses to the intensified, prolonged Kyiv attack (178/415 targets shot down). Emergency services at high readiness for civilian response, with operations in Kyiv ongoing and traffic restored. Continuous tactical medical training enhances combat readiness. Southern Defense Forces maintain readiness against RUF assaults. Units actively engaged across multiple front lines. Personnel welfare and rehabilitation programs (amputee football) ongoing. Enhanced procurement processes for drones/EW systems (e-points) aim to maintain tactical readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Air Defense: High effectiveness with 178/415 targets shot down during Kyiv attack. Successful interceptions over Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy. UAF Air Force video shows successful combat operations by Air Command "Center." Ukraine securing commitments for more Patriot systems (Germany 10, Norway 1).
- Deep Strikes: Successful drone strike on Penza power substation. Continued deep strike attempts into Moscow (3 drones shot down). Air danger regime in Lipetsk. Drone fell in Lithuania. Successful drone strikes on Russian logistics (truck convoy).
- Attrition of RUF Forces: UAF General Staff reports significant RUF losses (920 personnel, 3 MLRS, etc.). Successful strikes by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Destruction of numerous RUF high-value equipment on Zaporizhzhia front. Repelling 14 Russian assaults in Kursk/Sumy. Successful FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia. UAF soldier liquidated Russian motorcyclist and captured bike in Pokrovsk direction. Successful drone strike on RUF armored vehicle (Airmobile forces). Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed since the start of the year, with Ukrainian losses being less.
- International Aid: Resumption of US 155mm/GMLRS supplies. UK agreement for 5000 AA missiles. Germany ready to pay for Patriots. Norway $200M for energy sector. EU provided 1 billion and 2.3 billion euros. French SCALP production resumption. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome.
- Internal Governance: Anti-corruption and counter-sabotage operations (fake excise stamps, arrests of officials/arsonists). Law enforcement successes (prevented contract killing, bribery, disruption of Dnipropetrovsk gang).
- Strategic Communication: High-level officials livestreaming press conferences for transparency and international engagement. Zelenskyy's clear statements on war costs, sanctions, and negotiations. Highlighting UN report on civilian casualties to underscore RUF atrocities. Promoting shift in language usage.
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Direct hits on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv (residential, medical ambulatorium, schools) resulting in 2 killed, 25 injured. Civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk (1 killed), Zaporizhzhia (2 injured), Donetsk (9 killed, 10 injured). 11 Kharkiv settlements struck. UN report of 232 civilians killed in Ukraine in June, the highest in three years.
- Internal Security: Assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv (confirmed by UAF).
- Resource Strain: "Rerezerv+" app outage impacting personnel management. Slowdown in some public drone fundraising. Electricity deficit in Kyiv due to heat.
- RUF Claims (Unverified but potential setbacks): RUF claims UAF battalion HQ (150th Brigade) desertion in Sumy. RUF claims destruction of UAF ammunition depot (Sumy). RUF claims destruction of UAF excavator. RUF claims Iskander strikes on UAF PVDs in Mykolaiv and Kherson. RUF claims Paladin destroyed near Konstantinovka. RUF claims losses among UAF SSO officers in Sumy. RUF claims destruction of UAF light armored vehicle/truck ("Vinokos" video, pickup truck near Yanvarskyi). Captured UAF soldiers shown in RUF propaganda. TASS claims UAF command abandons wounded soldiers in Sumy direction.
- Environmental Impact: Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk. Hailstorm near Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Kyiv impacts/casualties, Penza fire, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk civilian casualties, Melitopol detentions, SBU Colonel assassination, Mykolaiv Iskander strike), LOW (RUF claims of UAF desertion, depot destruction, Lutsk strike, SSO officer losses, Vinokos vehicle destruction, Paladin destruction verification).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Air Defense Munitions: Immediate and sustained supply of interceptors for ballistic missiles and drones due to high expenditure rate from prolonged, multi-vector attacks. Commitments for Patriot systems are positive but delivery timelines are key.
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Medical and Emergency Response: Immediate surge capacity for medical personnel and emergency services in affected urban areas. Resources for psychological support.
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Financial Sustainment: Continued external financial support (~$3B USD/month) to maintain non-military operations and long-term recovery.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and Repair: Resources for rapid BDA, recovery, and repair of damaged civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv and other affected areas.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Tactical Drones/Power Equipment: Consistent supply of various drone types (e.g., FPV, reconnaissance) and associated power solutions for frontline units.
CONSTRAINT: Public Fundraising Fluctuation: Potential slowdown in public donations for certain equipment (e.g., fiber optic drones), requiring diverse funding strategies.
CONSTRAINT: Digital Infrastructure Reliability: "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights vulnerability in digital personnel management systems.
CONSTRAINT: Military Medicine: Acknowledged "problematic issues" in military medicine require urgent attention and resource allocation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: Immediately and widely amplifying "Kyiv got what it deserved" narratives, visually showcasing damage, and downplaying severity. Claiming strikes on Kyiv's military-industrial complex and airfields. Propagating highly inflammatory and false chemical weapons claims (UAF using poisonous substances, request for OPCW assistance). Fabricating UAF desertion claims (150th Brigade). Accusing UAF of attacking civilians. Highlighting claimed military successes (Dachne liberation, FPV/FAB destruction of UAF assets, Iskander strikes, anti-UAV successes). Using alleged SBU Colonel assassination to portray internal Ukrainian instability. Attempting to externalize blame for the assassination ("gypsies"). Leveraging captured UAF POWs for propaganda (morale issues, encouraging desertion, alleged UAF staged propaganda). Amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as divine retribution. Highlighting internal Russian stability (economic analogues, anti-corruption, counter-terrorism). Portraying Western aid as insufficient or escalatory. Exploiting perceived EU political instability (von der Leyen no-confidence vote). Russian state media like TASS and MoD Russia are actively reporting on Ukrainian UAV shootdowns over Russian territory, emphasizing the threat and Russian air defense capabilities. Colonelcassad and other milbloggers are disseminating daily operational reports with claims of UAF losses and tactical gains, alongside propaganda videos. TASS claims UAF command in Sumy direction abandons wounded soldiers. "Старше Эдды" highlights the high consumption of air defense missiles by both sides, framing it as a strategic challenge for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: Providing real-time, transparent updates on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts, casualties, and the scale of the threat (397 drones, 18 missiles launched). Zelenskiy explicitly states RUF intent to make people suffer and flee. Rapidly debunking RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns. Confirming SBU Colonel assassination with open criminal case and investigation. Highlighting UAF air defense effectiveness (178 targets shot down), and the securing of additional Patriot systems (10 from Germany, 1 from Norway). Showcasing UAF military successes (RUF losses, destroyed equipment, FPV drone effectiveness, urban clearing operations, successful drone strikes against RUF personnel, logistics interdiction). Emphasizing international support and financial aid (over 10 billion euros for reconstruction). Promoting domestic resilience and recovery efforts. Utilizing social media to boost morale and foster unity. Ukrainian officials, including Zelenskyy, are providing direct public addresses on support from partners and the overall strategic situation. Highlighting UN report confirming increased civilian casualties due to RUF actions. Promoting the shift in language usage as a sign of national resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: High psychological distress, fear, and frustration due to protracted, multi-vector attacks, increased casualties (2 killed, 25 injured in Kyiv, 232 killed in June), and damage to civilian infrastructure (medical facility, schools). Lingering smoke and poor air quality prolong tension. Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk adds to hardship. Public willing to contribute to war effort through donations. Concern about internal security due to SBU Colonel assassination. Morale boosted by air defense successes, international aid, and visual evidence of RUF losses. Public anger evident towards RUF. Marking the Day of Remembrance for Fallen Medics highlights the ongoing human cost but also reinforces national resolve and gratitude. Continued public support for military through small donations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: Morale boosted by RUF claims of military successes (Kyiv strikes, territorial gains, captured assets). Mobilization efforts (electronic registry) aim to project state control. Internal issues (fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave discomfort) are managed or downplayed by state media. Internal crime and corruption cases are used to project effectiveness of state. Negative reports about RUF generals indicate internal dissent in some circles. Propaganda aims to justify the war and normalize military service, with narratives like "Rublev strengthened" serving to convey economic stability. Recognition of high ADM consumption among some milbloggers may indicate concerns about sustainability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International Reaction to Kyiv Attacks: Expected strong international condemnation, increasing pressure for expedited air defense.
US Military Aid: Reuters confirms resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Zelenskiy reports "signals about the resumption of aid supplies" after talks with Trump. US discussing "roadmap" for conflict end. Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed, with Ukrainian losses being lower, suggesting continued international support for Ukraine's defense. US representatives participated in the "Coalition of Willing" meeting, signifying high-level engagement.
French Military Aid: Production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles to resume in 2025. UK and France signed a nuclear coordination declaration.
UK Military Aid: Agreement signed to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles.
German Military Aid: Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems for Ukraine. Zelenskiy met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing military support. Zelenskyy confirms Germany will finance ten Patriot systems, and Norway will pay for one more.
Polish Stance: RUF claims Polish President Duda threatened NATO with closing aid channels/Rzeszów airport (unverified, likely disinformation).
Russian Internal Issues: Ongoing internal issues (corruption cases, arrests, economic policies, human rights concerns regarding recruitment via detainees) continue to be managed.
Ukrainian Financial Needs: Continued critical requirement for external financial support. Receipt of 1 billion and 2.3 billion euros from EU. Norway allocated $200M for energy sector. Zelenskyy hints at "unexpected signals" regarding defense financing. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome.
Lithuanian Security Incident: Russian "Gerbera" drone fell in Lithuania, unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters – significant diplomatic incident and border provocation.
Caucasus Diplomacy: Lavrov at ASEAN, meeting with Chinese MFA and Rubio. Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan UAV exercises reported by RUF.
Starlink Mobile Internet: Mobile internet Starlink to launch in Ukraine in summer 2026.
Moldova Political Dynamics: Gagauz leader Gutsul heads Moldovan opposition list, extended arrest. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border): RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Pokrovsk directions, Karlo Marksa), Kharkiv (Vovchansk, Lyptsi), and border suppression in Sumy/Kursk (e.g., Alexandrovka). They will attempt to consolidate gains and conduct incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs (including UMPBs). Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics (truck convoys). Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify, specifically regarding UAF abandoning wounded soldiers and alleged chemical weapon use. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency, Volume, and Protracted Complexity of Aerial Strikes on Deep Targets: RUF will maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, from multiple vectors, to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and continued targeting of military-industrial complex sites. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging military actions for propaganda and escalating inflammatory disinformation. Claims of UAF desertions or internal discord, particularly regarding the treatment of wounded, are likely to increase. RUF will continue internal security operations (arrests, counter-terrorism). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to strengthen ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity. Likely to continue using foreign natural disasters for propaganda and testing NATO's resolve through border provocations (UAVs in Lithuania). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone/Counter-UAV Tech & ADM Efficiency: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities. They will also explore and promote concepts for cheaper, high-volume air defense systems (e.g., turboprop aircraft) to counter drone threats, acknowledging the high consumption rate of current ADMs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast to further divert UAF resources. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack, citing "technical assistance" from OPCW as justification, and specifically using recent claims of UAF dropping poisonous substances (e.g., in Kursk Oblast) as a direct and immediate trigger. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
- Continue Damage Control: Maintain immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv.
- Air Defense Alert: Monitor for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by new RUF UAV groups towards Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil.
- Intelligence Verification: Verify RUF claims of UAF battalion HQ desertion in Sumy, specific hits on Kyiv factories, Tolstoi FAB strike, UAF armored vehicle destruction, UAF dropping poisonous substances in Kursk Oblast, and UAF abandoning wounded soldiers. Confirm details of SBU Colonel assassination and its internal security implications.
- Counter-Propaganda: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives about abandoning wounded soldiers.
- Monitor RUF Tactical Shifts: Observe RUF border actions and any specific tactical shifts on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Kupyansk/Svatove, and Krasnolimansky directions. Monitor predicted severe weather in Bryansk and its impact on RUF operations.
SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
- Air Defense Allocation: Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions following the intensified Kyiv attack. Prioritize allocation and delivery of newly committed Patriot systems (Germany 10, Norway 1).
- Frontline Defense: Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas. Continue UAF cross-border drone activity, including logistics interdiction.
- System Restoration: Address "Rerezerv+" app outage.
- Financial Aid Integration: Assess immediate impact of EU financial tranches and the 10+ billion euros pledged for reconstruction.
MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
- Aid Effectiveness: Monitor the impact of new US and EU aid deliveries on battlefield dynamics.
- RUF Adaptations: Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their efforts to enhance their own drone and counter-UAV technologies, including any new ADM concepts.
- Internal RUF Dynamics: Monitor internal Russian political and social dynamics for long-term force generation implications (electronic conscription registry).
- Strategic Assessment: Assess the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure and resource constraints, and the SBU Colonel assassination on Ukrainian internal security. CONFIDENCE: HIGH for all points listed within the timeframe.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
- GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Are current integrated multi-wave, prolonged attacks a new standard? What types of ballistic missiles are used and their vectors (e.g., debris in Vinohradar)? What is the current Su-34 production/deployment rate? Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Origin and capability of the "Gerbera" drone in Lithuania and unknown drone from Belarus. Accuracy and impact of claimed strikes on Kyiv factories. Production status and capabilities of homemade UGVs. Current inventory and production rates for RUF FPV drones. Production and deployment status of UMPB D-30SN glide bombs.
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base, analyze flight patterns of combined attacks, forensic analysis of missile debris, track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Coordinate BDA with Lithuanian authorities. Conduct BDA on claimed Kyiv factory hits. OSINT and TECHINT on RUF UGV, UMPB, and FPV drone production.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
- GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense, after the latest intense, prolonged combined attack (397 drones, 18 missiles). What are the specific delivery timelines for the 10 Patriot systems from Germany and 1 from Norway? What is the current status of Ukrainian domestic Patriot analogue development?
- CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements to gauge expenditure rates. TECHINT on domestic ADM development.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Desertions (Sumy Ammunition Depot, Bessalivka VDV, Sumy Desertion, RUF "Zapad" claims, Lutsk Missile Division, Siversk/Chasiv Yar advances, Shebekino civilian casualties, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka/Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka/Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad advances, Melitopol Agents, Crimea Agent, UAF excavator destruction, Mykolaiv Iskander strike, Sumy Medical Facility, Voskresenka Engagements, SBU Colonel Assassination, Ternopil Crematoria, Tetkino Border Actions, Pokrovsk Engagements, Tolstoi FAB Strike, UAF Armored Vehicle Destruction, Izium Artillery, UAF Van Destruction, Sumy border manpower liquidation, Kupyansk/Svatove tactical situation, Kharkiv pickup/combat vehicle destruction, Karlo Marksa liberation, Konstantinovka Paladin Strike, Russian Railway Strikes, Makeevka Fires, Kherson Infiltration, UAF dropping poisonous substances in Kursk Oblast, Chervone PVD strike, Ocheretyne tank destruction, Vinokos vehicle destruction, Sumy SSO officer losses, Captured UAF Soldiers, UAF abandoning wounded soldiers):
- GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa), precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes (Mykolaiv, Chervone), claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles (Tolstoi FAB, "Vinokos" video, 56th Brigade), and alleged UAF chemical weapon use. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination. Verification of RUF claims of UAF SSO officer losses in Sumy. Assessment of veracity of RUF videos showing captured UAF soldiers.
- CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification of claimed RUF advances/destruction. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications to identify confirmed tactical successes/failures. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination. Engage international bodies (OPCW) for independent verification of chemical weapon claims. Conduct detailed analysis of RUF propaganda videos for inconsistencies or signs of staging.
Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry:
- GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry in addressing manpower shortfalls. What is the actual compliance rate and the impact on Russian society and economy?
- CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes.
UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
- GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes.
- CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units.
Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
- GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US (155mm, GMLRS), UK (Thales AA missiles), German (Patriots), and Norwegian (energy sector) aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems.
- CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment.
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
- GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges) are diverting significant resources (personnel, equipment, funds) from military operations in Ukraine.
- CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts.

END OF REPORT

Situation Report