Sitrep 2025-07-10 11:30:35

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 101128Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kyiv Oblast: RUF conducted a prolonged, multi-vector aerial attack lasting almost 10-11 hours, employing both drones and ballistic missiles. Confirmed casualties have risen to twenty-two (22) injured, in addition to the two (2) killed (total 2 killed, 22 injured) including a police officer and an underage girl (2008 DOB). Kyiv City, specifically Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, and Podilskyi districts, suffered significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including multi-story residential buildings and a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium in Podilskyi district, which is almost completely destroyed. Firefighting operations are ongoing, with RBC-Ukraine reporting all fires in Kyiv have been eliminated as of 1028Z JUL 25. Missile debris was found in Vinohradar. Widespread smoke and the smell of burning persist, leading to poor air quality. Public transport routes are temporarily changed due to damage, with several streets closed and trolleybus routes restricted. New groups of RUF UAVs were previously moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, passing Priuky and Oster, and some reported moving towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force report indicates a RUF UAV course towards Lutsk, Volyn Oblast. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched by RUF. New video from Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) shows multiple explosions and fires in a nighttime Kyiv cityscape, confirming severe impacts from the aerial attack. KMA (Kyiv City Military Administration) has released photo messages confirming schools, residential buildings, and offices were hit, with casualties. RBC-Ukraine reports a direct Shahed hit on a multi-story building in Kyiv, confirmed by Head of MIA Ihor Klymenko, with the number of injured rising. Colonelcassad (RUF source) released multiple videos and photos showing extensive damage, smoke, and ongoing emergency response in Kyiv, including footage from State Emergency Service of Kyiv (DSNS Kyiv), confirming the severity of the attacks. TASS (RUF MoD) claims strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. Kotsnews (RUF source) released videos and photos of the alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv, further confirming an incident in the capital. Colonelcassad (RUF source) released new video footage showing widespread destruction, smoke, and fires in Kyiv from night strikes, re-emphasizing significant impact. RBC-Ukraine shared video from a Shevchenkivskyi district resident confirming significant damage to an apartment building from the attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command reports neutralizing five (5) RUF UAVs targeting the oblast. Local authorities report the situation is controlled as of morning. Air Raid Alert cancelled for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (adjacent). Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion: A 67-year-old man was killed, according to Serhiy Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration. This indicates continued civilian casualties in the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising Russian and brigade flags in "liberated Dachne." TASS claims UAF drones attacked civilians evacuating from Tolstoi village in western Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), with Russian soldiers covering them, resulting in injuries. Civilian vehicle burning reported in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, suggesting a recent incident, likely conflict-related. Visuals confirm a devastated Soledar under RUF occupation. ASTRA (Ukrainian source) reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July 9. This confirms continued high civilian casualties. DeepState (UAF source) reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF pilots yesterday, indicating active engagement in the area. Operation Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RUF source) released video footage of ongoing battles near Pokrovsk, claiming destruction of UAF positions and equipment. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries, with a FAB strike in Tolstoi, citing a combatant named Mekhan. This is a new RUF claim of tactical success, further supported by NTV report footage from Воин DV. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Dachne claim, Dobropillia incident, Soledar visuals, ASTRA casualty report, DeepState FPV strikes, Pokrovsk engagements), MEDIUM (TASS drone attack claim, TASS FAB strike claim in Tolstoi). RUF sources report 179 dry grass fires extinguished in DNR/LNR over the past day, likely related to conflict or heat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces have significantly advanced near Siversk, now less than 1 km from the suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske and Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverified TASS claim).
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources ("Операция Z," WarGonzo, Colonelcassad) claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar and show footage of counter-UAV measures by 217th Ivanovo (98th Airborne Division) units. UAF General Staff previously reported repelling multiple assaults. This indicates continued heavy fighting and RUF attempts to solidify control. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar and Predtechyne. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports that 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by enemy fire over the past day, confirming persistent RUF pressure and strikes. Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation. OTU "Kharkiv" has issued an information message regarding the situation in their operational zone as of morning 10.07.2025. RUF "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports enemy artillery activity on the northeastern outskirts of Izium. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Syniehubov has opened a memorial plaque to Volodymyr Stashis in a university. WarGonzo released a video showing a BM-21 Grad MRLS firing against Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lviv Oblast: Significant flooding reported in Lviv, with water levels up to 3 meters in some areas, likely due to weather events impacting the Zubra and Shchyrka rivers. This will impact local movement and potentially divert resources. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV ➡️ курсом на Львів, and later ➡️ курсом на Бурштин. New UAF Air Force report: Lviv Oblast: UAV heading towards Busk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lutsk (Volyn Oblast): "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RUF source) claims a strike on a missile division in Lutsk. Accompanying video shows distant explosions or fires, but is low resolution and unverified. New reports confirm severe flooding in Lutsk city due to heavy rains, impacting streets and public movement. This flooding is distinct from any claimed RUF strike. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV is currently on a course towards Lutsk. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV is currently passing Berezne in Rivne Oblast and heading towards Volyn Oblast, reinforcing the threat to Lutsk. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverified RUF strike claim), HIGH (Flooding, Current UAV Threat).
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down over Penza Oblast. This confirms continued UAF deep strike capabilities. Local residents reported an explosion ("Что-то бахнуло"). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk, Perm Krai (likely a prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active in the North-East, employing KABs. RUF claims a battalion headquarters of a Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) unit deserted in Sumy direction, specifically the 150th Brigade. This claim, if verified, could indicate localized tactical success for RUF, or an attempt at information warfare. Two Mayors (RUF source) shared a photo set of a severely injured individual with burns, claiming it's from a "place of treatment for AFU soldiers in Sumy Oblast." This suggests RUF claims of targeting military medical facilities in the region. The authenticity of the image and location is unverified. Kotsnews released a video claiming to show the detention of "saboteurs" who "called to kill Russians," which implies counter-sabotage operations in the region. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Sumy desertion claim), LOW (Sumy medical facility targeting, image unverified). Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air Raid Alert issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since cancelled. An RUF reconnaissance UAV was detected near Zaporizhzhia, and UAF assets were engaged for its downing. Two (2) individuals were reported injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on the "Zaporizhzhia direction," indicating continued RUF interest and potential activity, and has shared drone footage of a damaged building complex adjacent to railway tracks, possibly a logistics node or former industrial site. WarGonzo has released a video indicating activity on the Zaporizhzhia front, advocating for increased pressure on UAF rear areas, potentially with drone footage of ground activity and explosions. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Verbove, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Plavni, Mykhaylivka of Zaporizhzhia region. Clashes yesterday near Novodanylivka. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA reported the transfer of a new batch of necessary equipment to the Zaporizhzhia front, including DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) released video footage showing numerous destroyed Russian high-value equipment and personnel on the Zaporizhzhia front, including 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, and Zhitel EW system. This indicates significant UAF success in this area. Dnevnik Desantnika shows footage of two RUF personnel from 7th Assault Division, Zaporizhzhia direction, thanking subscribers for day and night reconnaissance drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces report continued strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas in the Southern direction, with no significant changes in enemy tactics or intentions to break through defenses. Drone footage released by UAF Southern Defense Forces shows destruction of enemy positions, anti-aircraft installations, and vehicles, with soldiers being engaged and repelled. RUF source "Военкор Котенок" claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, with accompanying video showing an apparent successful strike on a facility with vehicles. TASS also released the same video and claimed "RF Armed Forces hit a deployment point of Ukrainian marines in Mykolaiv region with missiles." MoD Russia has released video footage of an Iskander strike, claiming "Iskander takes no prisoners," which visually aligns with previous claims of the strike on a military facility, possibly the PVD in Barativka. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны also released a video of an Iskander strike under Mykolaiv, claiming it "nullified" UAF positions. Janus Putkonen (RUF source) posted the same video, claiming it was once a 35th Marine Brigade base. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAF reporting, MoD Iskander video, Операция Z video, Janus Putkonen video), MEDIUM (RUF specific strike claim).
Chernihiv Oblast: An RUF reconnaissance UAV detected, UAF assets engaged for downing. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south, specifically reported near Ichnia and Honcharivske. These UAVs are now reported moving past Priuky and Oster towards Kyiv Oblast, and subsequently towards Zhytomyr region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): Ministry of Defense of Russia claims 14 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs were shot down and intercepted over Russian regions (previously 17). This includes incidents over Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports a new batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to the RUF MoD, with new video footage confirming this. Two more figures in the Smirnov case (former Kursk Oblast head) were transferred to Moscow and their arrest extended. WarGonzo reports on the need for RUF to adapt to the "revolution of drones". FSB claims two Ukrainian military intelligence agents were detained in Melitopol, collecting data on RUF. "Военкор Котенок" (RUF source) released video footage of the alleged detention of these agents. TASS reports on the farewell ceremony for Starovoyt in Moscow, attended by government members, indicating internal political events. Lavrov arrived at ASEAN meetings in Kuala Lumpur and is meeting with Rubio. Russian PM Mishustin has ordered the reduction of domestic auto production costs and increased productivity. TASS reports that 35 new "life situations" will appear on "Gosuslugi" (public services portal) by the end of the year. TASS refutes claims of Russia importing 1 million migrants from India. MoD Russia released video of Belousov presenting "Golden Star" medals to SVO participants, reinforcing recognition for military service. TASS reports that Russian analogues of McDonalds and Starbucks may impede Western brands returning to Russia, highlighting economic isolation. TASS claims FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai, and an arrest was made, signaling internal security threats and responses. TASS also released video of the arrest. TASS (citing former Verkhovna Rada Deputy Mosiychuk) and Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claim Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych (Senior Operational Officer of 1st Department, 16th Directorate, CSO) was assassinated in Kyiv at approximately 09:00, shot 5 times with a suppressed pistol. Alex Parker Returns provides a photo, likely of the alleged crime scene, showing a body covered by a sheet, and expresses triumphalist sentiment ("Быть добру!"). TASS also claims Colonel SBU Ivan Voronich was killed by shooting in Kyiv. "Два майора", WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Поддубный, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, and STERNENKO have all reported on the assassination of the SBU Colonel in Kyiv, with various details and accompanying images/videos of the crime scene and police investigation. RUF sources (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) claim their paratroopers are "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, on the border, and show associated drone footage of strikes. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники released a video from a cemetery filled with Russian flags, implying significant casualties. Alex Parker Returns circulated a photo of a Russian Ministry of Labor official, denying claims of 1 million Indian migrants, indicating internal economic and demographic messaging. Старше Эдды circulated a video about garlic cultivation in Russia, an economic/propaganda piece unrelated to military operations. Новости Москвы released photos and videos of free water distribution due to heat, and new capybaras at Moskva Aquarium, indicating domestic civilian issues and distractions. TASS reported on the defense of Russian basketball player Kasatkin, and the Ministry of Finance's intent to regulate mortgage investment purchases, indicating domestic legal and economic policies. TASS reported on Red Wings considering flights to Gelendzhik, indicating domestic civilian travel. TASS quotes Peskov stating Putin's work schedule does not include attending Starovoyt's farewell. TASS quotes Peskov stating security is paramount for opening airports in Gelendzhik and Crimea. TASS reports an agent of Ukrainian special services was detained in Crimea, allegedly preparing a terrorist attack for Russia Day. TASS reports 120 dead and 172 missing due to flooding in Texas, USA, which is used by RUF media to project external crises. TASS reports that the former director of "Kursk Battery Plant" Andrey Rybyantsev was sentenced to 6 years for embezzling 740 million rubles during a state defense order. This highlights internal corruption issues within the RUF defense industry. TASS reports that Moscow is experiencing its hottest day of the year at +33.1 degrees Celsius. Rospotrebnadzor recommends shortening working hours due to high indoor temperatures. RUF source "Народная милиция ДНР" released thermal/night vision drone footage claiming destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. RUF source Kotsnews released videos featuring a soldier describing "liberation" of settlements near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), including clearing houses and tactical movements. Север.Реалии reports that МВД pays bonuses for recruiting detainees to fight. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a wanted serviceman brutally killed his girlfriend in Irkutsk Oblast, suggesting internal crime issues within RUF ranks. ASTRA reports FSB initiated a case against two SOTA journalists for visiting Sudzha when it was under UAF control, suggesting internal security targeting of independent media. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA and WarGonzo report one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino, according to local authorities. Poddubny reports 2 injured from UAV debris in Belgorod and 4 explosions over Belgorodsky district. ASTRA reports a "booster block" (likely missile debris) stuck in a residential building in Belgorod. A video from ASTRA shows a drone or similar object attached to the side of a residential building in Belgorod. Poddubny claims 90% of UAF ammunition encountered by Russian sappers in Kursk Oblast are NATO samples. ASTRA reports a man injured in the morning shelling of Shebekino died in the hospital, confirmed by Belgorod Governor Gladkov. This increases civilian casualties. Z комитет + карта СВО posted images of a tactical map near Figolevka, Belgorod Oblast, showing operational movements. MoD Russia displayed captured ammunition in Kursk border areas, including landmines and FPV drones, claimed to be used by AFU. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (Source reliability).
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: A forest fire has increased in size from 194 ha to 324 ha. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: TASS reports the number of people poisoned by water in Magaramkent district has risen to 300, with over 90 hospitalized. This indicates a localized health crisis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: AV БогомаZ (RUF source) forecasts thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds (15-20 m/s) for July 11, 2025, predicting power outages, vehicle/property damage from falling structures/trees, and agricultural crop loss. This indicates adverse weather conditions impacting the border region. AV БогомаZ also reports on a working meeting at a branch of the First Moscow State Medical University named after I.M. Sechenov, showing a civilian construction/renovation site, indicating domestic infrastructure projects. AV БогомаZ and TASS report that 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in the Black Sea or Azov Sea. One (1) RUF warship reported in the Mediterranean Sea. Colonelcassad shows photos of "BARS-Crimea" exercises in the Chernomorsky district of Crimea, including military vehicles and personnel, indicating RUF military activity in Crimea. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources ("Сливочный каприз", "Два майора") reporting on operational movements and "gathering for assault troops". This indicates RUF continued interest and potential activity in this sector. Two Mayors channel shows drone footage of what appears to be UAF positions and an explosion in the Konstantinovka direction. ARHANGEL SPETSNAZ (RUF source) posted photos with the caption "Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad direction," possibly indicating a shift or broadening of focus in this area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources ("Сливочный каприз") reporting on operational movements. This indicates RUF continued interest and potential activity in this sector. "Воин DV" (RUF source) has released video footage of a projectile impacting a cluster of trees, followed by an explosion and visible debris, claimed to be in the "Voskresenka area" by the 5th Guards Tank Army, demonstrating active engagement with UAF positions. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Yalta, Myrne, Zelene Pole, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole in Novopavlivka direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi and towards Serebryanka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RUF source) released new video footage showing combat and destruction of UAF positions and equipment near Pokrovsk. Kotsnews (RUF source) released video footage of a soldier describing "liberation" operations in settlements near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), implying RUF advances and control. ARHANGEL SPETSNAZ (RUF source) posted photos with the caption "Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad direction," possibly indicating a shift or broadening of focus in this area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar and towards Pleschiyivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Rivne Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV moving towards Sarny. New report indicates a RUF UAV is currently passing Berezne and heading towards Volyn Oblast, likely reinforcing the threat to Lutsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Cherkasy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV moving towards Kaniv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Vinnytsia Oblast: The Coordination Staff for POWs and Missing Persons conducted outreach meetings with families in Bar and Teplik, indicating ongoing support efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Izium, Kharkiv Oblast: RUF "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports enemy artillery activity on the northeastern outskirts of Izium. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Oleksandr Vilkul (Head of Kryvyi Rih Military Administration) released photos regarding housing renovations in "Khrushchevka" buildings, indicating civilian recovery efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: The Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, Igor Artamonov, announced the introduction of an air danger regime across the entire region. This indicates a current UAF drone threat to the oblast. New update specifies the threat to Elets and Eletskiy district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: STERNENKO (UAF source) reports a Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania this morning, with photo evidence. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters, implying a significant security incident involving a suspected RUF asset. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital in Khakassia. This highlights internal crime issues related to returned combatants. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia released a video showing various captured munitions, including landmines and FPV drones, claimed to be used by AFU in Kursk border areas. This implies active operations near the border. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Significant smoke and the smell of burning persist in Kyiv due to the RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality, though fire fighting operations are reported as complete. Forest fires in Rostov Oblast may reduce visibility locally. Severe flooding in Lviv will impact ground movement and potentially divert resources, including emergency services. New reports of severe flooding in Lutsk City due to heavy rains will significantly impede urban movement and likely strain emergency services in Volyn Oblast, potentially diverting resources from other areas. Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns) are amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine (Lviv, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi oblasts) as "boomerang" for earlier flooding in St. Petersburg, a clear disinformation effort. Oil contamination on the Angara River in Irkutsk does not directly impact current military operations in Ukraine but indicates internal RUF environmental/industrial challenges. Fire at a prison colony in Solikamsk (Perm Krai) is a domestic incident but may indicate resource strain for internal security forces. Water poisoning in Dagestan indicates a localized health crisis in Russia. Bryansk Oblast is forecasted to experience severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds on July 11, 2025, which could impact visibility, ground movement, and local infrastructure near the border. Moscow is experiencing its hottest day of the year at +33.1 degrees Celsius, with Rospotrebnadzor recommending reduced working hours due to high temperatures, indicating internal heatwave conditions for Russia. Mash na Donbasse (RUF source) reports temperatures of +60C in direct sunlight and +41C in shade in Donetsk region, indicating extreme heat conditions on the frontlines that will impact personnel and equipment performance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against both drones and ballistic missiles for nearly 10-11 hours, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully intercepted 5 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk and engaging reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia. Emergency services and medical responders are actively engaged in damage assessment, fire fighting, and casualty management across multiple impacted districts in Kyiv (Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, Podilskyi), with confirmed casualties now at 2 killed and 22 injured, including a police officer and an underage girl. Firefighting operations in Kyiv have concluded. UAF Air Force tracked high-speed targets. UAF Air Force is tracking a RUF UAV heading towards Lutsk, Volyn Oblast, and one passing Berezne in Rivne Oblast towards Volyn, and also UAVs heading for Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. UAF drones continue deep strikes into Russian territory (e.g., Penza Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast, and a "Gerbera" drone downed in Lithuania). Air raid alerts indicate UAF monitoring of air threats across multiple oblasts, with new UAV threats detected in Rivne, Cherkasy, and Lviv oblasts. General Staff reports estimated RUF losses (920 personnel, 3 MLRS in the last 24 hours). UAF naval forces report no RUF Kalibr carriers in Black or Azov Seas. UAF personnel are engaged in tactical medical training, indicating a focus on personnel sustainment and readiness. UAF Southern Defense Forces maintain defensive posture against unchanged RUF tactics, including ground assaults, and continue to strike RUF positions, with new video showing destruction of RUF assets. UAF is launching an experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations. UAF is using "Rerezerv+" app, though it's experiencing outages. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF Coordination Staff met with families of missing/POW servicemen in Bezlyudivka, Kharkiv and also in Bar and Teplik, Vinnytsia Oblast. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA has delivered DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the Zaporizhzhia front. KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine are providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences, including KMA confirming schools, residential buildings, and offices hit. The Office of the Prosecutor General has reported suspicion to a former Kyiv City Council Secretary and Deputy Mayor, indicating ongoing internal anti-corruption measures. RBC-Ukraine's "Rubizh" brigade unit of the NGU is collecting funds for property and equipment restoration, indicating continued public support and resource generation. The SBU has confirmed the assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv, and law enforcement has opened a criminal case, indicating internal security/counter-intelligence operations are underway in response. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" released video showing its soldiers and equipment, emphasizing combat readiness. Zaporizhzhia OVA released video of veterans participating in adaptive sports, supporting morale and rehabilitation. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) released video footage showing numerous destroyed Russian high-value equipment and personnel on the Zaporizhzhia front, including 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, and Zhitel EW system. This indicates significant UAF success in this area. Dnevnik Desantnika shows footage of two RUF personnel from 7th Assault Division, Zaporizhzhia direction, thanking subscribers for day and night reconnaissance drones. UAF General Staff released photos of Ukrainian Naval Infantry, 34th Brigade of Coastal Defense, indicating active training and readiness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС released a drone video showing a strike on a Russian soldier in a trench, attributed to "Rubaka" unit, 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade, implying active tactical drone use. Ukrainian National Police claim to have prevented a contract killing of witnesses and foiled a $1M bribery attempt, indicating ongoing internal law enforcement operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast lasting almost 10-11 hours, employing both Shahed drones and ballistic missiles from multiple axes, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Launched 397 drones and 18 missiles in total, claiming strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. RUF continues to employ FPV drones for tactical strikes and aviation for precision strikes (KABs/KARs). WarGonzo released a video of a BM-21 Grad MRLS firing in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating active use of multiple rocket launchers. RUF ground forces in Donetsk are active, claiming advances near Siversk and in Chasiv Yar, with identified 98th Airborne Division elements engaged in counter-UAV activities. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted on the Sumy direction, indicating potential localized ground pressure or information operations in that area. RUF claims UAF drone attacks on civilians in Donetsk. RUF continues to conduct deep strikes, with 14 UAVs reportedly shot down over Russian territory (including incidents over Belgorod), and 5 over Bryansk. RUF sources claim a strike on a missile division in Lutsk (unverified). RUF is actively conducting ISR with UAVs in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with new groups detected moving south into Chernihiv and now towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr Oblast, with new UAVs reported heading for Rivne, Cherkasy, and Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), and Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. RUF 35th Army claims destruction of a UAF drone control point and jamming station. TASS reports new Su-34 deliveries, confirmed by new video footage. RUF naval special forces ("Naval Special Purpose Detachment Espanola") are noted in reconnaissance operations via drone footage. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol, with "Военкор Котенок" and "Дневник Десантника" providing video footage of the alleged detention of these agents, and Kotsnews released a video claiming to show detention of "saboteurs." RUF "Vostok" Group drone operators claim to have destroyed a UAF excavator used for fortifications on the second defensive line. Poddubny shows a demonstration of captured NATO-supplied ordnance (mines, drones, IEDs) in Kursk Oblast, which MoD Russia also released, claiming AFU use. RUF source "Военкор Котенок" and TASS claim an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, with accompanying video. MoD Russia has released video footage of an Iskander strike with the caption "Iskander takes no prisoners," which visually aligns with previous claims of the strike on a military facility, and Операция Z also showed it, and Janus Putkonen shared it. MoD Russia released video of Belousov presenting "Golden Star" medals to SVO participants. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army claimed engagement of UAF positions near Voskresenka, supported by drone footage of an explosion. TASS claims FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai, showing video of the arrest. Alex Parker Returns, TASS, "Два майора", WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, Поддубный, and Colonelcassad claim the assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv, with Alex Parker Returns sharing a photo, indicating active hostile intelligence operations within Ukraine. RUF sources (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) claim their paratroopers are "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, on the border, and show associated drone footage of strikes. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники released a video from a cemetery filled with Russian flags, likely to boost morale or for propaganda. Alex Parker Returns circulated a photo of a Russian Ministry of Labor official, denying claims of 1 million Indian migrants, addressing internal economic/demographic concerns. Kotsnews (RUF source) released video/photo of the alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv. НгП раZVедка (RUF source) released video footage claiming the liquidation of a senior SBU officer in Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district. Рыбарь (RUF source) released video footage of a civilian altercation in Kyiv, likely attempting to imply internal chaos. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RUF source) released new drone footage showing combat and destruction of UAF positions and equipment near Pokrovsk. TASS reports FSB detained a Ukrainian special services agent in Crimea. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries, with a FAB strike in Tolstoi, citing a combatant named Mekhan. TASS reports the former director of "Kursk Battery Plant" Andrey Rybyantsev was sentenced to 6 years for embezzling 740 million rubles during a state defense order. RUF source "Народная милиция ДНР" released thermal/night vision drone footage claiming destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. Kotsnews released videos of a soldier describing "liberation" operations in settlements near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Dnevnik Desantnika shows an RUF vehicle camouflaged ("porcupine") implying defensive/concealment tactics. Colonelcassad shares photos of "BARS-Crimea" exercises in Crimea, showing military drills. Dva Mayora has released new "Soldier's Daily Life" photos, showing military everyday life, potentially for morale. Воин DV released a report from NTV on Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction, emphasizing RUF gains in "Tolstoy". TASS reports Hungarian Ambassador summoned over death of Hungarian forcibly sent to UAF, signaling diplomatic pressure. TASS reports judge recused himself in Gagauz leader Gutsul's arrest extension case, indicating internal political issues. Басурин о главном shared a video on a Russian youth military training program. Colonelcassad posted a photo of MoD Russia daily brief. AV БогомаZ posted about a meeting on anti-corruption in Bryansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates enhanced capability for prolonged, complex, multi-vector aerial strikes, integrating ballistic missiles with Shahed drones against Ukrainian population centers over extended periods (up to 10-11 hours), causing significant casualties (now 2 killed, 22 injured in Kyiv; 1 killed in Pokrovske Hromada) and infrastructure destruction. They retain effective FPV drone capabilities for tactical strikes and aviation for precision strikes (KABs/KARs). RUF ground forces retain capability for localized advances, claiming incremental gains in Donetsk (e.g., Siversk, Chasiv Yar) and sustaining pressure in Kharkiv (Vovchansk) and Izium. WarGonzo video confirms RUF capability to utilize BM-21 Grad MRLS for sustained fire support. RUF claims of UAF desertion in Sumy (specifically 150th Brigade) and drone attacks on civilians in Donetsk, if verifiable, suggest a capability for psychological operations or exploiting localized UAF vulnerabilities. RUF maintains reconnaissance UAV capabilities, as demonstrated near Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. The delivery of new Su-34 fighter-bombers indicates continued aerial offensive capabilities. RUF 35th Army demonstrates effective targeting of UAF EW and C2 assets (drone control point, jamming station). RUF units demonstrate anti-UAV capabilities near Chasiv Yar. Naval special forces are conducting reconnaissance using drones. FSB claims to have disrupted UAF intelligence operations, indicating counter-intelligence capabilities, with "Военкор Котенок" and "Дневник Десантника" providing video evidence of alleged detentions in Melitopol and Crimea, and Kotsnews showing "saboteur" arrests. RUF forces are able to sustain 179 dry grass fires daily in occupied territories, indicating the scale of their operations. RUF "Vostok" Group demonstrates capability for targeted destruction of UAF engineering equipment. Poddubny's and MoD Russia's demonstration of captured NATO ordnance highlights RUF's capabilities in ordnance exploitation and potential propaganda generation. RUF appears to have the capability to target UAF temporary deployment points with Iskander missiles, as claimed and shown by "Военкор Котенок" and TASS for Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, further supported by MoD Russia's Iskander video, Операция Z, and Janus Putkonen. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army demonstrates capabilities for engaging UAF positions with artillery/loitering munitions, confirmed by drone footage. RUF demonstrates capability for internal counter-terrorism operations (Krasnodar Krai, Crimea) with video evidence of arrests. RUF also demonstrates capability for kinetic special operations or assassinations within Ukrainian territory, as indicated by the alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv, with multiple RUF sources confirming and providing visual evidence. RUF sources (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) demonstrate capability for drone-guided strikes against UAF equipment and C2 points near the border and destruction of UAF positions near Pokrovsk. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims to have destroyed UAF armored vehicles with 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, indicating specialized anti-armor capabilities. RUF forces demonstrate effective air defense against UAF drones over Bryansk and Lipetsk Oblasts. Basurin o glavnom video shows internal capabilities for youth military training. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Deep Strikes (Kyiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Lutsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk): Primary intent is to overwhelm UAF air defenses, inflict maximum damage on civilian and critical infrastructure in the capital, and generate mass civilian casualties and panic. The protracted nature and combination of drones and ballistic missiles aim to exhaust UAF air defense munitions and personnel, and to sustain psychological pressure. The rising confirmed casualties (now 2 killed, 22 injured in Kyiv; 1 killed in Pokrovske Hromada; 2 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 9 killed, 10 injured in Donetsk; 1 killed in Shebekino, Russia - claimed by RUF) reinforce the intent to cause harm. Targeting a medical ambulatorium in Kyiv (Podilskyi) and schools/residential buildings further highlights indiscriminate targeting of civilian infrastructure. TASS claims strikes on military-industrial complex and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv, indicating intent to degrade UAF defense capabilities. Claimed strike on Lutsk missile division suggests intent to degrade UAF long-range strike capabilities, if true. KAB/KAR launches against Sumy and Kharkiv demonstrate intent to attrit UAF forces and infrastructure in those sectors. The movement of new UAV groups towards Kyiv, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk suggests intent for follow-on or continued aerial attacks across central and western Ukraine. The destruction of the UAF excavator shows intent to impede UAF defensive construction. The claimed Iskander strike on a UAF PVD in Mykolaiv indicates intent to target UAF personnel and rear area facilities. RUF claims of targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast also indicates intent to degrade UAF medical capabilities. The assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv, if verified as an RUF operation, indicates intent to target high-value intelligence/security personnel within Ukraine's capital and create internal instability. Zelensky's statement regarding RUF attempts to make people suffer and flee Ukraine further confirms this intent.
- Tactical Targeting (Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Southern Axis): Continue to attrit UAF personnel and equipment with FPV drones and aviation (KABs/KARs). The claim of UAF desertion in Sumy (150th Brigade) suggests an intent to demoralize UAF forces, create uncertainty, and potentially set conditions for further ground actions in the region. Reconnaissance UAV deployment indicates intelligence gathering intent for future strikes or ground operations. Claims of UAF drone attacks on civilians aim to discredit Ukraine. Continued ground pressure in Chasiv Yar and Siversk demonstrates an intent to achieve territorial gains in Donetsk. Southern Axis forces indicate continued intent for ground assaults to breach UAF defenses. RUF operational movements on the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad axes indicate intent for offensive actions there. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army intends to target UAF personnel in treelines/fortifications. RUF paratroopers demonstrating destruction of UAF equipment and UAV C2 points near Tetkino indicates intent to suppress border region activity. New videos of combat near Pokrovsk indicate intent to continue offensive actions in this direction. TASS claims a FAB strike in Tolstoi destroyed elite UAF units, indicating intent to degrade high-value UAF forces. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles, indicating intent to attrit UAF heavy equipment. Dnevnik Desantnika shows RUF forces operating reconnaissance drones for "Zaporizhzhia direction", indicating continued ISR and offensive intent in this sector.
- Information Warfare: RUF channels are rapidly broadcasting "Kyiv receiving what it deserved" narratives, now amplifying the smoke and damage, and reporting on UAF drone attacks on civilians. The TASS claim about UAF exploring chemical weapon equipped UAVs and claims of Russia finding "toxic chemicals" is a clear disinformation effort aimed at justifying RUF actions and potentially setting conditions for false flag operations. Similarly, the claim of UAF desertion in Sumy (150th Brigade) is likely intended to demoralize and sow distrust. Reconnaissance UAV deployment indicates intelligence gathering intent for future strikes or ground operations. Claims of UAF drone attacks on civilians aim to discredit Ukraine. Continued ground pressure in Chasiv Yar and Siversk demonstrates an intent to achieve territorial gains in Donetsk. Southern Axis forces indicate continued intent for ground assaults to breach UAF defenses. RUF operational movements on the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad axes indicate intent for offensive actions there. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army intends to target UAF personnel in treelines/fortifications. RUF paratroopers demonstrating destruction of UAF equipment and UAV C2 points near Tetkino indicates intent to suppress border region activity. New videos of combat near Pokrovsk indicate intent to continue offensive actions in this direction. TASS claims a FAB strike in Tolstoi destroyed elite UAF units, indicating intent to degrade high-value UAF forces. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles, indicating intent to attrit UAF heavy equipment. Dnevnik Desantnika shows RUF forces operating reconnaissance drones for "Zaporizhzhia direction", indicating continued ISR and offensive intent in this sector. RUF sources (Rybar, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Poddubny, Dnevnik Desantnika, Операция Z) are publishing detailed maps, videos, and appealing for aid to reinforce perceptions of battlefield successes and internal strength. The alleged detention of UAF intelligence agents is likely intended to demonstrate RUF counter-intelligence effectiveness and deter UAF ISR. RUF is also exploiting the UN criticism of Russia to reinforce narratives about Western bias. Alex Parker Returns is amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for earlier events, demonstrating intent to weaponize natural disasters for psychological effect. Poddubny's and MoD Russia's demonstration of NATO ordnance aims to reinforce the narrative of Western involvement and "proxy war." The video of a seemingly captured Ukrainian soldier discussing morale issues is intended to demoralize UAF and impact recruitment. TASS is highlighting US President Trump's approval of some Ukrainian arms requests, possibly to frame this as Western escalation. MoD Russia's video of Belousov presenting awards aims to bolster morale and project strength. TASS reporting on Russian economic analogues aims to project internal resilience against sanctions. FSB reporting on preventing a terrorist attack aims to project internal security effectiveness. TASS also claims an agent preparing a terror attack in Crimea was detained. Alex Parker Returns' triumphalist tone regarding the alleged SBU Colonel assassination aims to demoralize UAF and create internal instability. Butusov Plus highlights an RUF disinformation campaign regarding alleged UAF crematoria for dead soldiers, indicating an RUF intent to create fear and distrust among Ukrainian families. The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing a cemetery filled with Russian flags is designed to evoke nationalistic sentiment and reinforce a narrative of sacrifice. Alex Parker Returns' denial of 1 million Indian migrants serves to manage internal demographic and economic concerns. The garlic cultivation video suggests efforts to promote domestic agricultural self-sufficiency. TASS reporting on the Texas floods aims to distract and imply external crises. TASS quotes Peskov on Putin's schedule and airport security, likely to project normalcy and effective governance. Kotsnews and НгП раZVедка amplify the SBU Colonel assassination, while Рыбарь shows civilian altercations, all aiming to project internal chaos in Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns also posted "А нас за шо?" (But what about us?) in response to Ukrainian strikes, indicating an attempt to elicit sympathy or frame RUF as victims. RUF sources continue to highlight internal Russian issues (e.g., embezzlement convictions, crimes by servicemen, recruitment of detainees) as internal cleansing rather than systemic failures, projecting strength. Рыбарь's video on the "Zangezur Corridor" aims to promote Russia's geopolitical influence and concern over regional shifts, while portraying Armenia's potential loss of sovereignty. RUF sources (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) are trying to amplify the narrative of declining EU support for Ukraine. Dva Mayora's "Soldier's Daily Life" photos are likely for morale and internal consumption. Kotsnews video implies counter-intelligence success against "saboteurs." Basurin o glavnom video focuses on youth militarization for internal consumption. ASTRA reports FSB case against journalists implies intent to control information flow. Рыбарь's post on Trump's threats could be used to frame US as aggressive. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Courses of Action:
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue its current pattern of attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions) and Kupyansk/Kharkiv (including Vovchansk, Lyptsi, and Borova/Borovska Andriivka, and potentially Izium), and Kherson direction, and continue border suppression actions (e.g., Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, Figolevka). They will likely attempt to consolidate recent gains and conduct further incremental advances, with claims of destroying high-value UAF units and armored vehicles. Pressure along the southern axis will continue. RUF will continue to prioritize drone and KAB/KAR usage to support these advances. They will also target UAF engineering equipment and potentially military medical facilities. Increased information operations focusing on demoralization, false flag pretexts (e.g., chemical weapons claims, desertion claims in Sumy, crematoria claims), discrediting UAF (e.g., civilian targeting claims, exploiting natural disasters), and promoting internal instability (e.g., assassinations, fostering internal unrest) are likely. Reconnaissance activities over Ukrainian-held territory will persist, as seen with new UAV groups heading for Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. Diplomatic pressure (e.g., Hungary) is also likely to continue. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Russia executes a coordinated, multi-pronged assault, combining the Kharkiv push with a significant increase in offensive tempo towards Chasiv Yar, aiming to achieve an operational-level breakthrough in the Donbas while Ukrainian command and control is focused on the new northern threat, potentially supported by further limited ground incursions in Sumy. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF: Confirmed tactical adaptation with the protracted duration (almost 10-11 hours) and immediate follow-up ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, integrated with the ongoing Shahed drone wave, now from multiple vectors. The continued deployment of Shahed drones even after ballistic missile impacts suggests an attempt to extend the air defense engagement period and further deplete UAF interceptors. The RUF claim of a UAF battalion HQ desertion in Sumy (150th Brigade), if verified, indicates a tactical adaptation towards exploiting perceived UAF weaknesses or conducting successful psychological operations. The reported targeting of a medical facility and schools in Kyiv aligns with an adaptation towards maximizing civilian distress and degrading critical services. The lifting of airport restrictions in Saratov may indicate a temporary lull in UAF deep strikes or successful RUF counter-UAV measures. RUF information channels are adapting by providing more detailed, visual "frontline briefings." The claimed destruction of a UAF drone control point and jamming station by 35th Army indicates an adaptation towards targeted EW/C2 degradation. WarGonzo acknowledges the "revolution of drones" indicating ongoing adaptation efforts and now shows BM-21 Grad MRLS in action. The presence of "Naval Special Purpose Detachment Espanola" in reconnaissance indicates diversification of special operations. The detention of alleged UAF intelligence agents in Melitopol and Crimea highlights RUF effective counter-intelligence C2, with "Военкор Котенок" and "Дневник Десантника" releasing video evidence, and Kotsnews showing "saboteur" arrests. RUF has adapted to internal criticism by stating that the UN condemnation of Russian attacks is biased, indicating an effort to control the information environment. The new video of Su-34 deliveries highlights RUF efforts to demonstrate continued aerial capabilities. RUF sources are now reporting on "gathering for assault troops" on the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad axes, potentially indicating a tactical shift or preparation for renewed localized pushes. RUF "Vostok" Group's drone strike on a UAF excavator demonstrates adapted targeting of engineering assets. Poddubny's and MoD Russia's demonstration of NATO ordnance aims to reinforce adaptation for propaganda and intelligence analysis. The claimed Iskander strike on a UAF PVD in Mykolaiv by "Военкор Котенок" and TASS demonstrates adapted long-range precision strike capability against UAF rear facilities, further supported by MoD Russia's Iskander video, Операция Z, and Janus Putkonen. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army demonstrates adapted use of drone-guided strikes against UAF positions. RUF FSB's claimed prevention of a terrorist attack indicates adaptation to internal security threats, with video evidence, including in Crimea. The alleged assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv, if an RUF operation, indicates an adaptation to high-value targeting within the Ukrainian capital, confirmed by multiple RUF sources with visual evidence, with Kotsnews and НгП раZVедка further amplifying. RUF disinformation campaigns are adapting by creating elaborate false flag narratives regarding UAF chemical weapon use and fictitious crematoria for UAF casualties. RUF sources (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) show adapted use of drone-guided strikes for suppressing UAF border activity and engaging UAF positions near Pokrovsk. TASS claims a FAB strike in Tolstoi destroyed elite UAF units, indicating RUF adaptation for precision strikes against high-value UAF concentrations, supported by Воин DV's NTV report. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, indicating specialized anti-armor tactics. Kotsnews' soldier videos describing "liberation" operations near Krasnoarmeysk indicate an adaptation towards ground-level narrative control and battlefield reporting. Dnevnik Desantnika shows RUF forces receiving reconnaissance drones for the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating adaptation to drone warfare. Dnevnik Desantnika also shows a camouflaged RUF vehicle ("porcupine"), suggesting adapted concealment tactics. RUF is adapting to internal issues by framing criminal activities by servicemen as isolated incidents and highlighting counter-corruption efforts (e.g., Kursk Battery Plant director conviction). RUF media is also adapting narratives to portray declining EU support for Ukraine (Euractiv cited by Операция Z). Basurin o glavnom video on youth military training implies adaptation to long-term force generation and patriotic education. Рыбарь's post on Trump's threats, combined with Trump's earlier approval of Ukrainian arms, indicates RUF's efforts to adapt its messaging to US political dynamics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: UAF air defense systems are actively engaging both drone and ballistic missile threats over Kyiv for an extended period, demonstrating rapid and sustained response to the integrated, multi-vector, and prolonged attack across multiple districts, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. UAF units successfully engaged an RUF reconnaissance UAV over Zaporizhzhia, 5 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk, and a reconnaissance UAV over Chernihiv. UAF Air Force is tracking a new RUF UAV heading towards Lutsk, one via Berezne towards Volyn, and also UAVs heading for Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. UAF General Staff is actively reporting on RUF losses, indicating continued effective BDA and combat operations. UAF is actively conducting tactical medicine training, indicating an adaptation to battlefield realities and a focus on casualty care. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue active engagements against RUF ground assaults, maintaining defensive lines, and new drone footage confirms their ability to destroy enemy positions and vehicles. The experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities indicates a strategic adaptation to decentralized air defense needs. UAF "Rerezerv+" app experiencing outages highlights challenges in digital infrastructure, potentially impacting personnel management adaptation. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Sumy/Kursk directions, demonstrating effective border defense. UAF Coordination Staff meeting with families of POWs/missing in Kharkiv and Vinnytsia highlights continued focus on personnel welfare. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA's delivery of DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations demonstrates tactical adaptation to sustained drone warfare needs. KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine are adapting their public reporting to detail the multi-district consequences of the Kyiv attack, including confirmed hits on schools and residential buildings, and coordinating emergency responses. The Office of the Prosecutor General's actions against former Kyiv officials indicates a continued adaptation towards internal governance and anti-corruption efforts. RBC-Ukraine's reporting on the "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising indicates an adaptation towards public engagement for unit sustainment. STERNENKO highlights the effectiveness of donor-funded interceptor drones against Shaheds, indicating adapted counter-UAV tactics, and successfully reaching 33.5 million UAH out of 50 million UAH for fiber optic drone production. UAF is proactively countering RUF chemical weapons disinformation campaigns, indicating an adaptation to preempt false flag operations. The SBU's confirmation of the Colonel's assassination and opening of a criminal case indicates rapid internal response to high-value threats. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" released motivational video, adapting to online information sharing. DeepState reports significant UAF FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia, demonstrating adapted tactical drone use. Zaporizhzhia OVA's video on amputee football indicates adaptation for veteran support and morale. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing medical evacuation suggests effective C2 for medical support and withdrawal, and their reporting on destroyed RUF equipment on Zaporizhzhia front indicates effective combat C2 and BDA. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports exposing "office workers" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with EW vehicles, indicating effective UAF counter-intelligence/security C2, and has reported the detention of additional arsonists acting for Russia in Ukraine, highlighting effective counter-sabotage. UAF's receipt of 1 billion euros from the EU from frozen Russian assets demonstrates continued financial adaptation and international support leverage. Oleksandr Vilkul (Kryvyi Rih Military Administration) shows civilian recovery efforts for housing, indicating local adaptation to wartime conditions. UAF General Staff photos of Naval Infantry, 34th Brigade of Coastal Defense, show adaptation in public messaging and training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone video showing a strike on a Russian soldier attributed to 77th Airmobile Brigade's "Rubaka" unit indicates adapted tactical drone use and unit-specific targeting. Ukrainian National Police preventing a contract killing and bribery attempt indicates effective internal law enforcement. RBC-Ukraine shared video of a Kyiv resident reacting to damage, indicating UAF media is adapting to provide a human perspective on the attacks. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a new flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery has been created in Rome, indicating adapted diplomatic efforts for post-war reconstruction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF: The demonstrated capability for rapid, successive launches of both Shahed drones and ballistic missiles from multiple axes, sustained over nearly 10-11 hours, indicates a robust production/procurement and sustainment chain for these deep strike assets. RUF's willingness to expend high-value ballistic missiles in conjunction with drones suggests an ample, or at least strategically prioritized, inventory for these attacks. Continued "Shahed" presence near Kyiv hours into the attack supports a high inventory. Use of KABs/KARs is also indicative of high aerial bomb stocks. The delivery of new Su-34s reinforces sustained aircraft production. RUF sources appealing for thermal imagers and Mavic 3 Pro drones suggest some internal logistical shortfalls at the tactical level for frontline units, relying on public donations. The internal issues (forest fire, oil spill, Ivanov bankruptcy, Smirnov case, Starovoyt death, Melitopol arrests, Solikamsk prison fire, Dagestan water poisoning, Krasnodar Krai terrorist prevention, Russian basketball player case, new capybaras, domestic tourism, movie premiere delays, Torpedo football club exclusion, Kursk Battery Plant embezzlement, Bryansk UAV shootdowns, Lipetsk air danger) may divert some long-term resources but are unlikely to immediately impact frontline or deep strike logistics. RUF command to reduce domestic auto costs and increase productivity indicates a long-term economic sustainment strategy. TASS highlighting Russian analogues of Western brands indicates efforts to counter sanctions and build domestic economic resilience. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video of a cemetery full of flags might imply sustained casualty management, which is a significant logistical burden. Alex Parker Returns' denial of Indian migrant imports indicates efforts to manage labor supply and demographic issues, which impacts long-term force generation potential. The garlic cultivation video suggests efforts to promote domestic agricultural self-sufficiency. TASS reporting on banking transfers with Turkey implies efforts to build alternative financial sustainment channels. Dnevnik Desantnika shows RUF forces receiving reconnaissance drones, suggesting a reliance on external/public funding for some tactical assets. Север.Реалии's report on МВД paying bonuses for recruiting detainees suggests a sustained, but potentially desperate, effort to address personnel shortfalls. The reported murder by a wanted serviceman in Irkutsk Oblast, and the Wagner mercenary suspected of murder in Khakassia, highlight internal discipline and control challenges that could impact personnel sustainment. Kotsnews video implies logistical capabilities for internal security operations. Basurin o glavnom video shows long-term investment in youth military training. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Deep Strike, Aircraft Production), MEDIUM (Tactical Supply Chain).
UAF: The requirement for rapid and sustained air defense engagement of both drones and ballistic missiles from multiple axes and over extended periods places extreme strain on UAF air defense munition stockpiles. UAF deep drone strikes (Penza Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast, Lithuania) indicate continued capability to disrupt RUF logistics. Ukraine's reported need for ~3 billion USD in external support monthly (excluding military aid) highlights financial sustainment challenges. The focus on tactical medical training indicates ongoing efforts to sustain personnel readiness despite combat stress. "Hayabusa" video possibly showing black bags in a trailer with damaged military trucks could be speculative evidence of casualty recovery or logistical issues, but is unconfirmed. The formation of volunteer air defense groups indicates a strategic response to resource constraints. The "Rerezerv+" app outage could impact personnel management and mobilization logistics if prolonged. The donation of DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the Zaporizhzhia front highlights reliance on external (volunteer/donor) support for tactical equipment sustainment. RBC-Ukraine's "Rubizh" brigade fundraising also highlights reliance on public donations for equipment restoration. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing medical evacuation highlights ongoing strain on medical logistics. The receipt of 1 billion euros from the EU from frozen Russian assets provides crucial financial sustainment. STERNENKO's successful fundraising for fiber optic drones (33.5 million UAH out of 50 million UAH) indicates successful leveraging of public support for tactical equipment production. The report on the creation of a flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery in Rome suggests a long-term strategy for financial sustainment for reconstruction. RBC-Ukraine reports on the creation of the European Fund for Ukraine's recovery, indicating positive movement on long-term sustainment. Ukrainian National Police preventing a contract killing and bribery attempt suggests internal resources allocated to law enforcement, which impacts overall state sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Maintains highly effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes on Kyiv from multiple launch vectors over prolonged periods, indicating a centralized and responsive command structure for deep operations. Tactical C2 for frontline operations and KAB/KAR deployment remains effective. WarGonzo video shows effective C2 for MRLS fire missions. Ground forces demonstrate coordinated movement and propaganda actions. The claim of UAF desertion in Sumy (150th Brigade), if accurate, would reflect effective RUF intelligence and C2 to exploit UAF vulnerabilities or conduct successful psychological operations. Reconnaissance UAV deployment indicates effective C2 for ISR (Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk). The claimed strike on Lutsk missile division, if true, would demonstrate effective long-range targeting C2. RUF 35th Army reports effective C2 for kinetic strikes against UAF EW/C2 assets. RUF information channels are exhibiting coordinated messaging and immediate responses to international criticism (e.g., UN condemnation, Euractiv reports on declining EU support). RUF 98th Airborne Division elements demonstrate effective counter-UAV measures. The alleged detention of UAF intelligence agents in Melitopol and Crimea highlights RUF effective counter-intelligence C2, with "Военкор Котенок" and "Дневник Десантника" releasing video evidence, and Kotsnews showing "saboteur" arrests. RUF "Vostok" Group's drone strike and propaganda videos demonstrate effective C2 for tactical operations and information dissemination. The claimed Iskander strike on UAF PVD by "Военкор Котенок" and TASS demonstrates effective C2 for target acquisition and precision strike execution, supported by MoD Russia's Iskander video, Операция Z, and Janus Putkonen. RUF 5th Guards Tank Army demonstrates effective C2 for drone-guided engagements. FSB reports on preventing a terrorist attack indicate effective internal security C2, with video evidence of arrest, including in Crimea. The alleged assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv, if an RUF operation, demonstrates effective and high-risk C2 for deep-state targeting, with multiple RUF sources providing coordinated reporting. RUF sources (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны) show effective C2 for drone-guided operations near the border and near Pokrovsk. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims effective C2 for specialized anti-armor operations. Kotsnews' soldier videos indicate effective C2 for ground operations and tactical reporting. Dnevnik Desantnika showing RUF forces receiving reconnaissance drones for the Zaporizhzhia direction suggests effective C2 for equipment procurement and distribution at the tactical level, relying on public support channels. Colonelcassad's sharing of "BARS-Crimea" exercise footage indicates C2 for military drills and their information dissemination. Dva Mayora's new "Soldier's Daily Life" photos indicate C2 for internal morale messaging. Воин DV's NTV report highlights effective RUF C2 for battlefield reporting and propaganda. TASS reporting on the Hungarian ambassador summoning suggests RUF attempts at diplomatic leverage. TASS reporting on the Gutsul judge recusal indicates internal judicial C2 issues. Basurin o glavnom video shows C2 for youth militarization programs. Colonelcassad's MoD report indicates centralized strategic communication. AV БогомаZ's report on anti-corruption shows C2 for internal governance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses to a complex, multi-vector, and prolonged attack scenario and managing local civilian response across multiple impacted districts, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Effective C2 for engaging reconnaissance UAVs and 5 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk and a UAV over Chernihiv, and tracking a new UAV heading for Lutsk, one via Berezne towards Volyn, and also UAVs heading for Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. Public transport changes in Kyiv reflect effective C2 in adapting urban infrastructure to attack consequences. Firefighting operations completed in Kyiv reflect effective C2 for emergency response. UAF General Staff reporting on RUF losses indicates effective C2 for BDA and strategic communications. Naval C2 appears effective in monitoring sea areas. The ongoing tactical medical training reflects effective C2 for personnel development and readiness. Southern Defense Forces demonstrate effective C2 in maintaining defensive lines against RUF assaults, with new video confirming successful engagements. The initiation of volunteer air defense groups indicates adaptive C2 for community-level defense. The new instruction on "Army+" for military personnel transfers indicates effective internal C2 for personnel management. The "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights potential C2 vulnerabilities in digital systems. UAF General Staff reporting on specific engagement locations (e.g., Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Sumy/Kursk directions) indicates effective C2 for frontline situational awareness and reporting. UAF Coordination Staff demonstrating continued C2 for prisoner/missing personnel issues in Kharkiv and Vinnytsia. KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine are showing effective C2 in crisis communication during the Kyiv attack. The Office of the Prosecutor General's actions against former Kyiv officials indicates effective C2 for internal legal processes. RBC-Ukraine's reporting on brigade fundraising indicates effective C2 for public engagement and support. UAF is demonstrating effective C2 in countering RUF chemical weapons disinformation, including preparing to engage OPCW. The SBU's confirmation of the Colonel's assassination and the police opening a criminal case indicates effective internal C2 for rapid response and investigation of high-value incidents. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" demonstrates effective C2 for unit morale and online presence. DeepState's reporting on UAF FPV strikes shows effective C2 for tactical drone operations and information sharing. Zaporizhzhia OVA's video on amputee football indicates effective C2 for veteran support programs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing medical evacuation suggests effective C2 for medical support and withdrawal, and their reporting on destroyed RUF equipment in Zaporizhzhia indicates effective combat C2 and BDA. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports exposing "office workers" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with EW vehicles, indicating effective UAF counter-intelligence/security C2, and detention of arsonists acting for Russia, indicating effective counter-sabotage C2. Receipt of 1 billion euros from the EU demonstrates effective C2 in leveraging international financial support. STERNENKO's fundraising success for fiber optic drones demonstrates effective C2 in public engagement and domestic military production initiatives. Oleksandr Vilkul (Kryvyi Rih Military Administration) demonstrates effective local governance C2 for civilian recovery efforts. UAF General Staff photos of Naval Infantry show C2 for public relations and unit identity. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone video implies C2 for tactical drone deployment. Ukrainian National Police preventing a contract killing and bribery attempt indicates effective C2 for internal security. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the creation of a flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery, demonstrating effective C2 in international relations for post-war planning. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a critical air defense network in Kyiv, now defending against a complex, multi-vector, and prolonged threat. Air defense assets are active in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv, with new UAV threats heading towards Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. Frontline units continue to hold defensive positions, engaging KABs in Sumy and Donetsk, and defending against RUF ground advances in Kharkiv and Donetsk, with specific clashes reported across multiple axes (Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Sumy/Kursk), and facing artillery fire near Izium. UAF also maintains capability for deep drone strikes into Russia (e.g., Penza, Belgorod, Bryansk, Lipetsk) and potentially Belarus/Lithuania. UAF naval forces maintain a defensive posture in the Black and Azov Seas. Southern Defense Forces are engaged in active defense and striking RUF positions. The formation of local air defense groups from territorial communities demonstrates a posture of decentralized defense and civilian integration. UAF Naval Infantry (34th Brigade) photos indicate training and readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and sustained air defense responses to the new integrated RUF attack on Kyiv, which has intensified and is now coming from multiple directions for an extended duration, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Emergency services are mobilized for rapid response to impacts across multiple districts, managing increased casualties (2 killed and 22 injured, including a police officer and an underage girl) and significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a medical facility and schools; firefighting operations are now complete. The continuous tactical medical training enhances overall combat readiness and resilience. Southern Defense Forces report continued readiness against RUF assaults. UAF General Staff reports on clashes across multiple front lines, demonstrating continuous engagement and readiness. UAF Coordination Staff's meeting with families indicates ongoing support for personnel readiness and morale. The "Rubizh" brigade fundraising indicates ongoing efforts to maintain unit readiness through public support. The SBU's rapid confirmation of the Colonel's assassination and law enforcement response indicates readiness to address high-value internal security threats. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" demonstrates unit readiness through its public presence and motivational content. DeepState reports on significant UAF FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia, indicating tactical readiness. Zaporizhzhia OVA's video on amputee football highlights rehabilitation and readiness for veterans. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video depicting medical evacuation suggests sustained readiness in combat casualty care, and their reporting on destroyed RUF equipment on Zaporizhzhia front indicates combat readiness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports exposing "office workers" with EW vehicles and detaining arsonists, demonstrating readiness in internal security and counter-intelligence. UAF Naval Infantry (34th Brigade) photos confirm personnel readiness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone video indicates active tactical drone units. Ukrainian National Police preventing a contract killing and bribery attempt reflects readiness in law enforcement. The "Rerezerv+" app outage presents a temporary challenge to readiness in terms of administrative efficiency, though steps are being taken to address it. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Ongoing Air Defense Interceptions: UAF air defense is actively engaging and intercepting incoming Shahed drones and ballistic missiles over Kyiv for an extended period, preventing potentially greater damage across a broader area. Successfully shot down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully intercepted 5 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv. RUF MOD claims 14 UAVs shot down over Russian territory, implying UAF deep strike successes. 5 UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast. A Russian "Gerbera" drone fell in Lithuania.
- Deep Drone Strikes: UAF successfully conducted a drone strike against a target in Penza Oblast, Russian Federation, indicating continued deep strike capability. UAF drones caused air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, demonstrating continued reach (Elets and Eletskiy district).
- Attrition of RUF Forces: UAF General Staff reports significant RUF losses (920 personnel, 3 MLRS, 4 artillery systems, 1 tank, 6 APCs, 1 special equipment unit) over the past 24 hours. UAF Southern Defense Forces report continued successful strikes on RUF locations, firing positions, and rear areas, confirmed by new drone footage showing destruction of RUF assets. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and Sumy directions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС released video footage showing numerous destroyed Russian high-value equipment and personnel on the Zaporizhzhia front, including 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, and Zhitel EW system, confirming significant UAF success in this area. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone video attributed to 77th Airmobile Brigade's "Rubaka" unit shows a successful strike on a Russian soldier.
- Tactical Medical Training: Ongoing training for tactical medicine instructors enhances the UAF's ability to reduce combat fatalities and maintain personnel readiness.
- Decentralized Air Defense: Experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations represents a proactive and innovative approach to enhance layered air defense, especially against UAVs.
- French SCALP/Storm Shadow Production Resumption: French Defense Minister confirms production of SCALP missiles will resume in 2025, after 15 years, a significant positive development for UAF long-range strike capabilities.
- Equipment Delivery: Zaporizhzhia OVA reported the transfer of DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. STERNENKO has successfully raised 33.5 million UAH out of 50 million UAH for fiber optic drone production, demonstrating successful public funding for domestic defense.
- US Resumed Weapons Supplies: Reuters reports that "USA resumed supplies of some types of weapons to Ukraine," specifically mentioning 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets for HIMARS. "Два майора" reports silent increase in Patriot SAM procurement. RBC-Ukraine reports that Trump delivered part of military aid according to Zelensky's list.
- Successful Interception of Shaheds by Interceptor Drones: STERNENKO reports successful shootdowns of Shaheds by interceptor drones funded by public donations.
- Internal Governance (Anti-Corruption/Counter-Sabotage/Law Enforcement): The Office of the Prosecutor General reported suspicion to a former Kyiv City Council Secretary and Deputy Mayor, demonstrating continued efforts against corruption. Оперативний ЗСУ reports exposing "office workers" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with EW vehicles, and further detentions of arsonists acting for Russia in various regions, indicating effective UAF counter-sabotage/intelligence operations. Ukrainian National Police claims to have prevented a contract killing and foiled a $1M bribery attempt, indicating successful law enforcement operations against organized crime.
- Continued Support for POW/Missing Families: UAF Coordination Staff continues outreach meetings in Vinnytsia Oblast, demonstrating sustained support.
- Successful FPV Drone Strikes: DeepState reports approx. 40 UAF FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia, indicating effective tactical engagement.
- RUF Criminal Liquidated: Бутусов Плюс reports on the liquidation of a Russian criminal fighting for RUF, highlighting Russian internal issues.
- Financial Aid from EU: Ukraine received another 1 billion euros from the EU from frozen Russian assets, confirming continued critical financial support.
- Firefighting in Kyiv: All fires in Kyiv resulting from the attack have been eliminated, indicating effective emergency response.
- Flagship Fund for Recovery: Оперативний ЗСУ reports creation of a flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery in Rome, and RBC-Ukraine reports the European Fund for Ukraine's recovery has been created. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Setbacks:
- Direct Hits on Kyiv Civilian Infrastructure with Ballistic Missiles and Drones: Confirmed impacts on multi-story residential buildings, non-residential buildings, schools, and the almost complete destruction of a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium in Podilskyi district. Casualties have risen to two killed and twenty-two injured, including a police officer and an underage girl, in Kyiv. This represents a direct and severe hit on civilian areas, causing significant damage and casualties, confirmed by visual evidence and new video from Alex Parker Returns and KMA, and extensive visual evidence from Colonelcassad. Shevchenkivskyi district now confirmed with significant damage to civilian infrastructure, as confirmed by RBC-Ukraine's video of a resident. Visual confirmation of missile debris in Vinohradar. Public transport disrupted. Videos from "Шеф Hayabusa" confirm extensive damage and ongoing fires in residential buildings and urban areas, consistent with impacts from mixed aerial attacks. 5 Kanal TV channel confirmed significant damage from RUF massed attack. TASS claims strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv, which if accurate, are setbacks.
- Civilian Casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion.
- Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two individuals injured in Vasylivskyi district.
- Civilian Casualties in Donetsk Oblast: National Police of Ukraine (reported by ASTRA) confirms nine (9) killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July 9.
- Civilian Casualties in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast (RUF claim): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident, and then updated to report that the injured person died in hospital. If confirmed, this is a civilian casualty.
- Impact on Kharkiv Oblast Settlements: 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by enemy fire, indicating continued pressure and localized setbacks. Artillery activity reported near Izium.
- Civilian Casualties in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast: A burning civilian vehicle suggests an incident with potential civilian impact.
- RUF Claimed UAF Desertion (Unverified): RUF claims a battalion headquarters of the UAF 150th Brigade deserted on the Sumy direction. If verified, this would be a significant morale and tactical setback, though it is currently unverified.
- RUF Claimed Destruction of UAF Ammunition Depot (Unverified): RUF claims a successful aviation strike on a large ammunition depot of the 80th Separate Airborne Brigade near Pushkarevka, Sumy Oblast. If verified, this would be a significant logistical setback.
- Targeting of UAF Personnel/Vehicles: RUF FPV drone strike destroyed a UAF pickup truck with infantry in Kupyansk. RUF video shows a captured Ukrainian soldier speaking about poor morale and desertions, if authentic, this suggests morale issues. RUF source "Военкор Котенок" and TASS claim an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, with accompanying video, further reinforced by MoD Russia's Iskander video, Операция Z, and Janus Putkonen. If confirmed, this is a significant setback for UAF personnel and temporary deployment capabilities. "Two Mayors" (RUF source) claims targeting a "place of treatment for AFU soldiers" in Sumy Oblast, showing a graphic photo of an injured individual. If confirmed, this is a severe violation of IHL and a medical setback. TASS claims a FAB strike in Tolstoi destroyed elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries, which, if confirmed, is a significant setback for UAF high-value personnel, further supported by Воин DV's NTV report. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles, which, if confirmed, is a materiel setback. Шеф Hayabusa reports an FPV drone hit a UAF van that had recently been repaired and received new wheels, implying loss of support equipment.
- Unverified Strike on Lutsk: RUF sources claim a strike on a missile division in Lutsk, which if verified, would be a setback for UAF air defense or missile capabilities.
- Unverified RUF Advances near Siversk: TASS claims RUF is less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. If verified, this would represent a tactical setback.
- FSB Claimed Detention of UAF Intelligence Agents: If confirmed, the detention of two alleged UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea would be a setback for UAF intelligence gathering capabilities in occupied territories. "Военкор Котенок" and "Дневник Десантника" have released video footage of the alleged detention, and Kotsnews released a video showing "saboteur" arrests. ASTRA reports FSB case against two journalists implies setback for independent reporting from occupied areas.
- "Rerezerv+" App Outage: Users reporting issues with the "Rerezerv+" app, a system for military personnel, indicates a potential disruption to administrative and personnel management processes.
- Destruction of UAF Excavator: RUF "Vostok" Group claims to have destroyed a UAF excavator used for fortifications on the second defensive line. If verified, this impedes UAF engineering efforts.
- SBU Colonel Assassination in Kyiv: Alex Parker Returns, TASS, "Два майора", WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, Поддубный, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO all claim the assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv via a suppressed pistol, with multiple sources providing visual evidence of the crime scene and police investigation. SBU has confirmed the killing and law enforcement has opened a criminal case (reported by ASTRA and TASS). If confirmed as an RUF special operation, this represents a significant setback for Ukrainian internal security and intelligence, and demonstrates RUF's capability for targeted killings within the capital. Kotsnews and НгП раZVедка further amplify the claimed assassination with video.
- Diplomatic Pressure from Hungary: TASS reports Hungarian Ambassador summoned over the death of a Hungarian forcibly sent to UAF, creating diplomatic pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Kyiv impacts/casualties, Kupyansk strike, Penza drone shootdown, Zaporizhzhia impacts/casualties, Zaporizhzhia UAV engagement, Dnipropetrovsk UAVs, Chernihiv UAV engagement, Kharkiv settlements, Dobropillia incident, Melitopol detentions/video, Rerezerv+ outage, 5 Kanal damage, UAF excavator destruction, Donetsk civilian casualties, Lutsk/Lviv/Volyn flooding, SBU Colonel Assassination/investigation confirmed by UAF sources, Mykolaiv Iskander strike, Crimea agent detention, Pokrovske Hromada casualty, Bryansk UAV shootdowns, Lipetsk air danger, Lithuania drone incident), LOW (Sumy depot claim verification, Sumy desertion claim verification, Lutsk strike verification, Siversk advance verification, Sumy medical facility targeting, Tolstoi FAB strike verification, UAF armored vehicle destruction verification).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT for air defense interceptors for both ballistic missile defense and drone interception. The simultaneous, multi-vector, and protracted (almost 10-11 hours) nature of the attack drastically increases expenditure rates. The WSJ report of Russia launching 24,000 drones in 2025 further underlines this strain.
Medical and Emergency Response: Immediate surge requirement for medical personnel, emergency services, and psychological support due to increased casualties (now 2 killed, 22 injured, including a police officer and an underage girl in Kyiv; 1 killed in Pokrovske Hromada; 2 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 9 killed, 10 injured in Donetsk; 1 killed in Shebekino, Russia) and widespread fear in Kyiv across multiple affected districts, and new casualties in Zaporizhzhia and Shebekino. Damage to medical facilities (Podilskyi ambulatorium) and schools compounds this. The severe flooding in Lutsk and Lviv will also require additional emergency service resources.
Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and Repair Resources: Immediate need for resources for rapid BDA and recovery/repair operations in Kyiv due to multiple impacts from ballistic missiles and drones on civilian infrastructure. The widespread smoke and smell of burning indicate significant material damage. Resources for public transport rerouting also required. Damage to 5 Kanal TV channel requires repair resources. The city of Kryvyi Rih also highlights a need for housing renovation resources, implying ongoing civilian infrastructure needs. Шеф Hayabusa's report of a destroyed UAF van highlights the need for vehicle repair/replacement resources.
Logistical Protection (Sumy): Need for enhanced air defense and camouflage for logistical nodes, especially in exposed areas like Sumy Oblast, given RUF claims of successful strikes on depots and new KAB/KAR threats, and potential localized ground pressure/infiltration, and claims of targeting medical facilities.
Financial Sustainment: Continued critical requirement for external financial support (approx. $3 billion USD/month) to sustain non-military aspects of the conflict. This is reinforced by calls from officials like Andrii Sybiha and Kellogg (Trump's special envoy) for increased sanctions and a "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine. The recent 1 billion euro tranche from EU from frozen Russian assets partially addresses this, but ongoing funding is crucial. The creation of a flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery in Rome (Оперативний ЗСУ) and the announcement of the European Fund for Ukraine's recovery is a positive development for long-term financial sustainment for reconstruction, but immediate needs remain.
Tactical Drone/Power Equipment: Continued requirement for drones (e.g., DJI Mavic 3) and associated power solutions (EcoFlow) for frontline units, as evidenced by recent deliveries to Zaporizhzhia front and STERNENKO's ongoing collection, and the fundraising by "Rubizh" brigade, with a specific need for fiber optic drones as highlighted by STERNENKO's fundraising efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: RUF sources (Два майора, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Поддубный, Сливочный каприз, Fighterbomber, Kotsnews, Военкор Котенок, Басурин о главном, Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Воин DV, Старше Эдды, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, НгП раZVедка, AV БогомаZ, Народная милиция ДНР, Janus Putkonen, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Филолог в засаде) are immediately broadcasting claims of Kyiv "getting what it deserved" with video/photo messages, amplifying the visual effects of smoke and fire, and downplaying the severity ("I see everything was shot down. Nothing terrible."). KMA photos detailing destruction are being countered by RUF downplaying. TASS claims strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. "Операция Z" claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) hit factories and an airfield in Kyiv, while "Воин DV" claims the 35th Army destroyed a UAF drone control point and jamming station and destroyed a UAF excavator. They continue to highlight claimed military successes (Sumy ammunition depot, Kupyansk pickup truck, raising flags in "Dachne", destruction of 53 UAF drone control points, strike on Lutsk missile division, advances near Siversk and in Chasiv Yar, successful counter-UAV measures by 98th Airborne Division, Naval Special Purpose Detachment Espanola operations, detention of UAF intelligence agents in Melitopol and Crimea, with "Военкор Котенок" and "Дневник Десантника" releasing video of alleged detentions, Kotsnews showing "saboteur" arrests, 14 UAF UAVs shot down (revised from 17), Iskander strike on UAF PVD in Mykolaiv with video from "Военкор Котенок", TASS, MoD Russia, Операция Z, and Janus Putkonen, Belousov awarding medals with video from TASS/MoD Russia, destruction of UAF equipment and C2 points near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, with drone footage from Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, combat and destruction near Pokrovsk with new drone footage). Significantly, TASS is propagating a highly inflammatory and likely false narrative that "Kyiv studied the possibility of equipping UAVs with chemical weapons against the Russian Armed Forces," citing a State Duma deputy, and later stating Russia requested technical assistance from OPCW due to finding "toxic chemicals." "Операция Z" and "Военкоры Русской Весны" are amplifying this chemical weapon claim. TASS also claims that a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted on the Sumy direction, and that UAF drones attacked civilians evacuating from a DPR village. Two Mayors shared a photo of an injured person, claiming it's a UAF soldier from a Sumy medical facility, implying successful targeting. Russian sources are also soliciting aid (thermals, generators, Mavic 3 Pro drones) for frontline units, indicating a public awareness of material shortages. Rybar is promoting a GIS mapping app, signaling a move towards public-facing tactical information dissemination. ASTRA reports UAF shelling causing civilian casualties in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, with new visual evidence of drone/missile debris in buildings, and later reporting a death. MoD Russia released video showing captured NATO munitions. WarGonzo acknowledges the "revolution of drones" but argues for RUF adaptation. Fighterbomber expresses skepticism over Western military aid and shared video of SBU Colonel assassination. Euractiv cited by TASS suggests EU resource limitations complicate long-term support for Kyiv. These narratives aim to amplify the psychological impact of the strikes, portray them as justified and successful, and create internal division within Ukraine, while providing a pretext for further RUF actions. "Два майора" also reported on an internal Russian civilian altercation, possibly to distract. The public farewell for Starovoyt and Lavrov's diplomatic presence are used to project normalcy and diplomatic activity. RUF channels are also showing new Su-34 deliveries to project strength. A video of a captured Ukrainian soldier speaking about lack of people on the streets and conscription, and people disappearing, is disseminated to portray low UAF morale and recruitment issues. TASS and MFA Russia are responding to UN criticism by stating it's biased and supports Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns is amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for earlier flooding in St. Petersburg, attempting to frame natural disasters as divine retribution. Rybar also attempts to link UK's military spending to its internal water infrastructure issues. Poddubny is highlighting captured NATO ordnance to underscore Western involvement. TASS also reported on new features for "Gosuslugi" (public services portal) and refuted claims of Indian migrant imports, aiming to project internal stability. Kotsnews is publishing "trench prose" about "hunting Bradley" which is designed to enhance morale and dehumanize targets, and also showing videos of soldiers "liberating" settlements near Krasnoarmeysk. TASS reports on Russian analogues of Western brands to show resilience. TASS reports FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai, with video, to project internal security. Alex Parker Returns, TASS, "Два майора", WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, Поддубный, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews, and НгП раZVедка claim the assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv, using it to demonstrate RUF capability and likely to cause internal turmoil in Ukraine's security apparatus. Alex Parker Returns' "Быть добру!" ("Good will come!") is a triumphalist, celebratory sign-off to this alleged assassination. Butusov Plus highlights an RUF disinformation campaign (TASS-backed) about alleged UAF crematoria for dead soldiers in Ternopil, aiming to create fear and distrust among Ukrainian families regarding casualty compensation. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video of a cemetery full of Russian flags implies a narrative of sacrifice. Старше Эдды's video on garlic cultivation and Новости Москвы's photos/videos on free water and capybaras are efforts to project normalcy and domestic well-being. TASS reporting on the Texas floods aims to distract and imply external crises. TASS claims a FAB strike in Tolstoi destroyed elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries. TASS reports the former director of "Kursk Battery Plant" Andrey Rybyantsev was sentenced for embezzlement, framed as a successful internal anti-corruption measure. "Народная милиция ДНР" released thermal/night vision drone footage claiming destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, emphasizing operational success. Alex Parker Returns also posted "А нас за шо?" (But what about us?) in response to Ukrainian strikes, indicating an attempt to elicit sympathy or frame RUF as victims. TASS highlights Moscow's record heat as a domestic civilian issue. Dnevnik Desantnika features RUF personnel thanking subscribers for drones, aimed at fostering public support. Rybar's video on "Zangezur Corridor" aims to promote a narrative of regional geopolitical shifts unfavorable to Armenia and Russia. Операция Z and Euractiv narratives on declining EU support aim to sow discord. Dva Mayora's "Soldier's Daily Life" photos are likely for internal RUF consumption to boost morale. Воин DV's NTV report from the front is for internal consumption to show RUF gains. TASS reports on Hungarian ambassador summoning over death of Hungarian in UAF, attempting to create diplomatic friction. TASS reports on judge recusal in Gutsul case, distracting from political issues. Alex Parker Returns posts photos with "Smile - it annoys everyone," and "I cannot fulfill this request," which are not relevant to military intelligence, but show his general content on Telegram. Филолог в засаде, an RUF source, comments on improvements in military medical support (though still with "gaps"), likely for internal consumption. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a wanted serviceman killed his girlfriend in Irkutsk Oblast, which is a domestic crime but can impact public perception of military personnel. Mash na Donbasse highlights extreme heat on the front, potentially to emphasize harsh conditions for RUF soldiers. Север.Реалии reports on МВД paying bonuses for recruiting detainees to fight. Colonelcassad's posts about "BARS-Crimea" exercises are designed to show RUF readiness and capability in Crimea. Igor Strelkov's post about "historical analogies" likely aims to frame current events within a broader historical context, potentially for nationalist or legitimizing purposes. WarGonzo's post on Kyrgyzstan's potential coup attempts serves as a distraction from the war and implies global instability. AV БогомаZ's post on anti-corruption in Bryansk is likely for internal consumption, projecting effective governance. Рыбарь's post about Trump's "threats" aims to frame US foreign policy negatively. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: UAF sources (KMA, RBC-Ukraine, Air Force, Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Serhiy Lysak Dnipropetrovsk OVA, STERNENKO, Head of MIA, General Staff, Southern Defense Forces, Office of the Prosecutor General, Zelenskiy / Official, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» , Олександр Вілкул) are providing real-time, transparent updates on the integrated RUF attacks on Kyiv, emphasizing the use of ballistic missiles from multiple directions, the protracted duration of the attack (almost 10-11 hours), civilian impacts across multiple districts (including the destruction of a medical ambulatorium and schools in Podilskyi), and the rising confirmed casualties (2 killed, 22 injured), including a police officer and an underage girl. UAF Air Force, RBC-Ukraine, and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine are specifically reporting the large scale: 397 drones and 18 missiles launched by RUF, with 178 shot down. Zelenskiy officially confirmed 18 missiles and almost 400 strike drones (200 Shaheds) in the 10-hour attack, and explicitly stated RUF's intent to make people suffer and flee. KMA has specifically highlighted "direct broadcasting of Shahed attack on TikTok", indicating a potential RUF exploitation of open-source information, and confirms schools, residential buildings, and offices were hit. They provide public safety advice and report on traffic changes. RBC-Ukraine is rapidly publishing confirmed casualty figures and visual evidence of damage in Kyiv to counter RUF disinformation, and has called for increased sanctions. Zaporizhzhia OVA has reported civilian casualties from an enemy attack. UAF General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" are reporting on estimated RUF losses. STERNENKO is appealing for drone donations, indicating public engagement in the war effort and showing drone operational footage, and highlighting successful interceptor drone use, with current fundraising progress. "Шеф Hayabusa" has posted a video implying Russian casualties ("black bags") and damage to military vehicles, and new videos showing fire and destruction in Kyiv aftermath. The Office of the Prosecutor General has initiated investigations into the Kyiv attack, documenting casualties and damage, and has reported suspicion to a former Kyiv City Council Secretary/Deputy Mayor. Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine highlight new volunteer air defense groups and the need for a "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine's recovery. Video from Butusov Plus visually depicts the destruction in occupied Soledar, and new video likely shows medical evacuation, and also of destroyed RUF high-value equipment in Zaporizhzhia, and a drone strike on a Russian soldier. Photos from Desantno-Shturmova Viyska show Ukrainian paratroopers, emphasizing resolve. RBC-Ukraine reports the "Rerezerv+" app is experiencing issues and the "Rubizh" brigade is fundraising. The Economist is cited by "Оперативний ЗСУ" with a narrative that Russia needs 89 years to capture all of Ukraine, aiming to portray RUF as slow and ineffective. UAF Coordination Staff (Безлюдівка, Kharkiv and Bar/Teplik, Vinnytsia) is demonstrating continued support for affected families. ASTRA is reporting civilian casualties in Donetsk Oblast due to Russian attacks, and also confirmed the SBU Colonel assassination and opening of criminal case. Бутусов Плюс is reporting on the liquidation of a Russian criminal fighting for RUF, aiming to highlight internal Russian issues and low quality of RUF personnel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posted a non-military video about data analytics, showing a pivot to civilian topics or an effort to maintain normalcy. Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine is directly countering RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns, citing previous RUF use and exposing the information operation, and also reports exposing "office workers" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with EW vehicles and detaining arsonists. RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and STERNENKO have confirmed the assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv, signaling a rapid and transparent response to a high-value internal incident, with police video from RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ. Butusov Plus is directly debunking the TASS disinformation campaign about UAF crematoria for dead soldiers. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" released motivational video focusing on combat effectiveness. DeepState reports on UAF FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia, countering narratives of RUF dominance. Zaporizhzhia OVA released video on amputee football, focusing on veteran well-being. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" released video discussing Ukrainian refugees returning to Mariupol and implications for Russian propaganda. Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) reported a civilian casualty in Nikopol Raion. RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ reported the receipt of 1 billion euros from the EU from frozen Russian assets, highlighting successful diplomatic and financial efforts. Oleksandr Vilkul (Kryvyi Rih Military Administration) highlighted civilian recovery and renovation efforts, portraying local resilience. UAF General Staff released photos of Naval Infantry training and readiness. Ukrainian National Police prevention of a contract killing and bribery attempt serves as a counter-narrative against perceived internal chaos. RBC-Ukraine also reports the creation of the European Fund for Ukraine's recovery. STERNENKO also reports on a Russian "Gerbera" drone falling in Lithuania, and RBC-Ukraine reports on an unknown drone from Belarus forcing Lithuanian leadership into shelters, framing these as Russian/Belarusian provocations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the creation of a flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery in Rome. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: The protracted, multi-vector ballistic missile and drone attack on Kyiv, now confirmed impacting multiple districts (including a destroyed medical facility and schools) with visible smoke and damage, and two killed and twenty-two confirmed casualties (including a police officer and an underage girl), will cause severe psychological distress, fear, and frustration. The direct impacts on residential areas and civilian casualties (including 1 killed in Pokrovske Hromada, 2 injured in Zaporizhzhia, 9 killed, 10 injured in Donetsk) will deepen public anxiety and stress. Civilian casualties in Kharkiv will further contribute to this. While air defense efforts provide some reassurance (e.g., in Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Chernihiv, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk), the sheer scale and intensity of the attacks are highly demoralizing. The TikTok livestreaming incident may also erode public trust in security protocols. The cessation of the air raid alert will bring temporary relief, but the lingering smoke, poor air quality, and casualties will maintain high tension. Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk will add to civilian hardship and potentially strain emergency services. Appeals for drone donations (STERNENKO) and efforts like the Zaporizhzhia OVA delivering drones and "Rubizh" brigade fundraising indicate public willingness to contribute and reliance on public support. Continued fighting and civilian impact in Dobropillia will contribute to the general weariness. Public commemorations in Zaporizhzhia indicate resilience and remembrance. The visual of devastated Soledar will reinforce determination against RUF. The reported outage of the "Rerezerv+" app may cause frustration among those trying to use it. The meeting of the Coordination Staff with families of missing/POW servicemen demonstrates a governmental effort to support morale and address concerns. The alleged assassination of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv could cause significant public concern about internal security and RUF capabilities within the capital. The chemical weapon disinformation campaign by RUF and false flag narratives about crematoria are designed to create fear and distrust among Ukrainian citizens, specifically targeting families of servicemen. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" and Zaporizhzhia OVA's veterans video are efforts to boost morale. Zelensky's statement on RUF's intent to make people suffer and flee will resonate with public sentiment. The successful fundraising for fiber optic drones by STERNENKO (33.5 million UAH collected) demonstrates high public engagement and morale for contributing to the war effort. The ongoing renovation of civilian housing in Kryvyi Rih can boost local morale and demonstrate resilience. RBC-Ukraine's video of a Kyiv resident expressing frustration over the damage and calling Russians "moskali" reflects widespread public anger. Ukrainian Naval Infantry photos and drone strike video from Butusov Plus are likely intended to boost morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: RUF channels' immediate publication of claimed successful strikes and triumphalist narratives regarding Kyiv, alongside inflammatory claims like UAF chemical weapon drones and UAF desertions, aims to bolster domestic morale and reinforce narratives of military success and effectiveness, and to justify the war. Appeals for aid like thermal imagers and specific drone models suggest a public facing of resource shortfalls, potentially designed to garner popular support for the war effort through donations. The report about the reduction in 200-point ЕГЭ scores might be used to portray a negative internal situation in Ukraine, or simply be a domestic news item. Internal issues like forest fires and oil spills are likely downplayed to maintain an image of stability. Arrests of former officials (Ivanov, Smirnov, Kursk Battery Plant director Rybyantsev) and the detention of alleged UAF agents (including in Crimea) could be interpreted as anti-corruption efforts or effective counter-intelligence, bolstering public trust. The video of a seemingly wounded Russian soldier expressing dissatisfaction with the contract and lack of support, if widely disseminated, could negatively impact morale and recruitment efforts. WarGonzo's discussion of drone warfare highlights internal recognition of challenges. The farewell ceremony for Starovoyt and Lavrov's diplomatic presence aim to project normalcy and international legitimacy. The new video of Su-34 deliveries is intended to boost confidence in the military-industrial complex. The MFA's quick rebuttal to UN criticism is aimed at maintaining public support and perception of being justified. Alex Parker Returns' attempt to link Ukrainian flooding to "sins" indicates an effort to shape domestic perception of the war as divinely sanctioned. The Solikamsk prison fire may highlight domestic issues, potentially impacting public confidence in internal security. The "United Russia" women's chat content regarding domestic violence and gender inequality could be indicative of deeper social issues impacting public sentiment, but are not directly related to military morale. The water poisoning incident in Dagestan is another internal issue that could impact public trust in local governance. TASS highlighting Trump's approval of some Ukrainian arms requests for Ukraine could be used to frame the US as escalating the conflict and justifying Russian actions. TASS reporting on Russian economic analogues (McDonalds, Starbucks) aims to boost confidence in economic resilience. FSB reporting on preventing a terrorist attack aims to project internal security competence. The alleged SBU Colonel assassination in Kyiv is likely presented as a successful "special operation" to boost domestic morale and demonstrate deep reach. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video of a cemetery full of Russian flags is likely to elicit support and nationalistic sentiment. Alex Parker Returns' denial of 1 million Indian migrants serves to manage concerns about social tensions or labor issues. The garlic cultivation video and free water distribution messages aim to project stability and prosperity. TASS reports on movie premiere delays and football club exclusions indicate domestic civilian issues. TASS reporting on Texas floods aims to distract and imply external crises. TASS quotes Peskov on Putin's funeral absence and airport security for Crimea/Gelendzhik are likely intended to project order and control. Moscow's record heat and Rospotrebnadzor's recommendations for reduced working hours could affect civilian morale by highlighting daily discomfort and the need for government intervention in routine life. Alex Parker Returns' "А нас за шо?" post in response to Ukrainian strikes attempts to foster a sense of grievance and justification for RUF actions. Kotsnews' soldier videos portraying "liberation" operations are designed to boost morale and sense of progress. Филолог в засаде's comments on improved, but still imperfect, military medical support are likely for internal consumption, attempting to manage expectations. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reporting on a serviceman's murder in Irkutsk could generate concern about internal security and discipline within the military. Север.Реалии's report on МВД paying bonuses for recruiting detainees for war indicates a highly coercive approach to recruitment, which could negatively impact public trust or willingness to serve if widely known and believed. Dva Mayora's "Soldier's Daily Life" photos are likely designed to show normalcy and boost morale within the military community. Басурин о главном video aims to foster patriotism and support through youth militarization. ASTRA reports on journalists facing FSB charges, which could also serve as a warning to other critical voices. Рыбарь's post on Trump's threats aims to reinforce anti-Western sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International Reaction to Kyiv Attacks: The integrated and protracted ballistic missile and drone attack on Kyiv, particularly civilian targets and now escalated to 2 killed and 22 injured (including a police officer and an underage girl) and significant infrastructure damage (including a medical facility and schools), will likely draw strong international condemnation. This may increase pressure on allies to expedite air defense and munitions. Politico reports Kyiv's unsuccessful attempts to connect defense ministers of Ukraine and the US since July 2nd, indicating a potential diplomatic friction point or difficulty in high-level coordination amidst escalating events. TASS citing Euractiv on EU resource limitations could be aimed at dampening Ukrainian expectations and influencing Western political discourse. The UN's condemnation of Russian attacks, and Russia's MFA calling it "biased," indicates continued diplomatic friction. Andrii Sybiha's call for increased sanctions and a "Marshall Plan" underscores the international diplomatic push. TASS is amplifying a new Russian claim (Postrem РФ при ОЗХО) that "Moscow records cases of Kyiv using combat poisonous substances and the presence in Ukraine of a system for their mass production." This is a highly dangerous and provocative diplomatic development, likely a pretext for false flag operations, which Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine is actively countering. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
US Military Aid: Reuters reports that "USA resumed supplies of some types of weapons to Ukraine," specifically mentioning 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets for HIMARS. This confirms a positive, and critical, development in military assistance. However, Fighterbomber's skepticism about the quantity and impact of Patriot delivery suggests RUF attempts to downplay its significance. "Два майора" reports that the US has "silently" increased procurement of Patriot SAMs, indicating a positive development for UAF long-term air defense capabilities. TASS reported that Trump approved some Ukrainian requests for arms from the list Zelensky provided at the NATO summit in The Hague, as reported by WP. This is a positive diplomatic development for Ukraine. TASS reports that USA has not requested "agregman" for a new ambassador to Russia, and clarity is lacking on the candidate, indicating continued strained diplomatic relations. TASS reports minimal US response to proposals to resume direct flights, indicating continued isolation. Andrii Sybiha (cited by Оперативний ЗСУ) confirms "positive signals" regarding renewed US defensive aid. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that US Secretary of State Rubio is scheduled to meet Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov at 13:00 Kyiv time, indicating ongoing, albeit fraught, high-level diplomatic contact. TASS reports that Lavrov is meeting with Rubio in Kuala Lumpur, confirming the meeting is underway. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
French Military Aid: Poddubny reports that France is resuming production of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles. STERNENKO provides an image and text confirming French Defense Minister Lecornu's statement that SCALP production will resume in 2025 after 15 years. This is a significant positive development for UAF long-range strike capabilities. Two Mayors reports Britain and France will sign a nuclear cooperation agreement, signaling broader defense cooperation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Polish Stance: "Dnevnik Десантника" and "Операция Z" claim Polish President Duda threatened NATO with closing the channel for military aid to Kyiv and closing Rzeszów airport. The "Операция Z" video shows a man speaking, but is unverified as Duda or as a credible threat. TASS also amplifies this claim. This, if true, would represent a significant diplomatic development impacting logistical arteries and potentially signaling internal NATO disagreements, although this is from an RUF source and requires verification. Poddubny reports Warsaw has threatened to close Rzeszow airport "for repairs," further amplifying this narrative. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Russian Internal Issues: The TASS report on the bankruptcy case of former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov and the arrest of former Kursk Oblast head Smirnov suggests ongoing internal issues within Russia's defense and political establishments, potentially signaling a crackdown on corruption or internal power struggles. The report on the forest fire in Rostov Oblast and the oil spill in Irkutsk highlight internal challenges for Russia, potentially diverting resources and exposing systemic weaknesses. Travel restrictions by Aeroflot to Tehran due to Iranian aviation authorities indicate broader diplomatic/travel issues impacting Russia. The death of Starovoyt and the detention of alleged UAF intelligence agents in Melitopol (and Crimea) are also internal security/political events. Russian PM Mishustin's focus on domestic auto production costs suggests internal economic pressures. The fire at Solikamsk prison colony and reports on the "United Russia" women's chat on domestic issues also reveal internal societal challenges. The water poisoning incident in Dagestan points to public health and infrastructure challenges. Astra reports a military court sentenced a Kazakhstan native to 17 years for "treason," indicating ongoing internal security crackdown. Putin not attending the funeral of the deceased transport minister (Sergey Karpushin, according to Sever.Realii) could indicate internal political distancing or a perception of unimportance for the event. TASS reporting on Russian internal legal and economic matters (Kasatkin, mortgage regulation, Gelendzhik flights) indicates efforts to project domestic stability. TASS also celebrated 100 years of the TASS agency. TASS reports on movie premiere delays and football club exclusions due to rule violations, indicating domestic cultural and sports issues. TASS reports that the former director of "Kursk Battery Plant" Andrey Rybyantsev was sentenced to 6 years for embezzling 740 million rubles during a state defense order, reinforcing internal corruption issues. TASS reports that Moscow is experiencing its hottest day of the year, with recommendations for reduced working hours, indicating climate impacts on civilian life. Police of Khabarovsk Krai released a video on cybercrime prevention, highlighting internal law enforcement focus. Север.Реалии reports on МВД paying bonuses for recruiting detainees for war, suggesting a coercive and potentially human rights-violating method of recruitment. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a wanted serviceman killed his girlfriend in Irkutsk Oblast, highlighting internal crime issues within the military ranks. ASTRA reports FSB case against two journalists, indicating internal crackdown on media. AV БогомаZ posted on anti-corruption, suggesting internal efforts to address issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Financial Needs: The National Bank of Ukraine's assessment of $3 billion USD in monthly external support (excluding military aid) highlights a crucial diplomatic and financial requirement to sustain national resilience. This is reinforced by calls for a "Marshall Plan" by Western officials cited by UAF. STERNENKO also reports Special Envoy Kellogg believes Ukraine needs a "Marshall Plan" equivalent. Zelenskiy and Syniehubov are participating in URC 2025, which is a recovery conference. Ukraine has received another 1 billion euros from the EU from frozen Russian assets, providing some relief but reinforcing the scale of financial requirements. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that a flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery has been created in Rome, and Ursula von der Leyen called for 10 billion Euros in investments for Ukraine, indicating renewed international commitment. RBC-Ukraine also reports the creation of the European Fund for Ukraine's recovery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuanian Security Incident: The report of a Russian drone falling in Lithuania and an unknown drone from Belarus forcing Lithuanian leadership into shelters represents a significant diplomatic incident and a potential escalation of border provocations, increasing regional tensions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Caucasus Diplomacy: Aliyeve and Pashinyan meeting in Abu Dhabi is a diplomatic development that does not directly impact the Ukraine war but demonstrates ongoing regional diplomatic activity relevant to broader security interests. Lavrov's presence at ASEAN and meeting with Chinese MFA suggests continued RUF diplomatic outreach to the Global South. Lavrov's meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is a significant diplomatic development. Russia and Turkey are discussing launching banking transfers. Rybar's video on the "Zangezur Corridor" highlights continued Russian interest and influence in regional strategic projects. Lavrov's meeting with Rubio concluded, as per TASS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions) and localized pressure in Kupyansk/Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka, and potentially Izium), and Kherson direction, and continue border suppression actions (e.g., Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, Figolevka). They will likely attempt to consolidate recent gains and conduct further incremental advances, with claims of destroying high-value UAF units and armored vehicles. Pressure along the southern axis will continue. RUF will continue to prioritize drone, MRLS, and KAB/KAR usage to support these advances. They will also target UAF engineering equipment and potentially military medical facilities.
Increased Frequency, Volume, and Protracted Complexity of Aerial Strikes on Deep Targets: RUF will likely maintain, and potentially increase, the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, with a priority on continued, complex strikes on Kyiv, potentially from multiple launch directions and for extended periods (10+ hours). The integration of ballistic missiles with drones will become a more common tactic to saturate and overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum psychological impact. Expect further civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, including continued targeting of critical civilian facilities (e.g., medical centers, schools, military-industrial complex sites, airfields). RUF will continue FPV drone use for tactical targeting and increased use of KABs/KARs on frontline and near-frontline positions to support ground advances and attrit UAF strongpoints. Reconnaissance UAV activities will persist, as seen with new UAV groups heading for Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. The new delivery of Su-34s suggests continued aerial support and KAB employment. RUF will likely continue to target UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs) with precision missiles (e.g., Iskander). RUF will likely continue and potentially increase deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel in the capital, attempting to cause internal instability (e.g., assassinations).
Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging all military actions for propaganda, including exploiting civilian casualties and damage for psychological impact and promoting "heroic" narratives. They will also escalate efforts to disseminate highly inflammatory disinformation (e.g., chemical weapons claims and requests for OPCW assistance based on them, and claims of UAF crematoria for dead soldiers, civilian drone attacks, exploiting natural disasters) to justify aggression and influence international opinion. Claims of UAF desertions (e.g., 150th Brigade) or internal discord are likely to increase. Appeals for domestic support will continue. Internal security operations (e.g., arrests of officials, detention of alleged UAF agents, treason charges, prevention of terrorist attacks, embezzlement convictions, recruitment of detainees for military service, addressing military crime) will likely continue, potentially to signal strength or address corruption. RUF will attempt to project an image of adapting to the "revolution of drones" by highlighting their own counter-UAV capabilities and drone usage. RUF will continue to deflect international criticism by branding it as biased. RUF propaganda will continue to highlight Western military aid as an escalatory step. RUF will continue to use internal issues (e.g., heatwaves, local governance projects, internal crime prevention) to project normalcy and effective governance.
Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to seek and strengthen diplomatic and economic ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity, including leveraging global economic tensions. Lavrov's presence at ASEAN and meeting with Chinese MFA, and talks with Turkey on banking transfers, reinforce this. RUF will likely continue to use foreign natural disasters (e.g., Texas floods) for propaganda purposes to divert attention from internal issues or their actions in Ukraine. RUF will also continue to use diplomatic channels to pressure Ukraine's allies (e.g., Hungary). RUF will continue to test NATO's resolve and reactions through border provocations involving UAVs (e.g., Lithuania).
Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone Enhancement/Counter-UAV Tech: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities, as explicitly mentioned by RUF sources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast (beyond mere infiltration), potentially from the Bessalivka vector or other border points, to further divert UAF resources, potentially leveraging narratives of "UAF desertion" to create localized breakthroughs. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack, citing "technical assistance" from OPCW as justification. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours): Continued consequences of the prolonged air attack persist in Kyiv (casualties now 2 killed, 22 injured, including a police officer and an underage girl; smoke, damage, disrupted public transport), though firefighting is complete. Immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and fire fighting in Kyiv (multiple confirmed impacted districts) remain critical. UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving situation in Kyiv while maintaining broader operational awareness. Verify RUF claim of UAF battalion HQ (150th Brigade) desertion in Sumy Oblast and assess its tactical significance. Continue to monitor for further KAB/KAR strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Monitor for follow-on attacks or reconnaissance in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Assess veracity of claimed Lutsk strike and RUF advances near Siversk and extent of control in Chasiv Yar. Monitor RUF reactions to confirmed US renewed weapons supplies and Trump's approvals. Monitor the movement of new RUF UAV groups detected in Chernihiv towards Kyiv Oblast and now towards Zhytomyr Oblast, and new UAVs towards Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk, especially the one currently on course for Lviv, and then Burshtyn and Busk. Immediately issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims and request OPCW investigation. Verify RUF claims of Iskander strike in Mykolaiv Oblast. Confirm the details and investigate the alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv, including forensic analysis of the crime scene and CCTV footage, and assess potential internal security implications. Verify RUF claims of targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. Monitor RUF border actions, especially near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, and Figolevka. Monitor and prepare for predicted severe weather conditions in Bryansk Oblast (thunderstorms, hail, strong winds) for July 11, which may impact RUF operations near the border. Monitor the Lavrov-Rubio meeting for immediate diplomatic developments relevant to Ukraine. Verify the TASS claim of a FAB strike in Tolstoi against elite UAF units and the "Народная милиция ДНР" claim of destroyed UAF armored vehicles. Monitor the air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, specifically for Elets and Eletskiy district. Monitor new developments in Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Kherson direction, and potential artillery fire near Izium). Continued UAF cross-border drone activity (as seen in Penza Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast). Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions, particularly for ballistic missile defense, following the intensified, prolonged Kyiv attack from multiple vectors, and in anticipation of new UAV waves. Monitor for any follow-up RUF aerial attacks on Kyiv or other major cities, especially with combined assets, as the current drone wave depletes. Monitor for any signs of RUF ground force buildup or further localized actions in Sumy Oblast following the desertion claim. Address "Rerezerv+" app outage and restore functionality. Assess the impact of the 1 billion euro tranche from the EU on immediate UAF financial stability. Monitor the situation in Lithuania following the drone incident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
MID-TERM (24-72 hours): Clarity on new US and EU aid. RUF will continue to adapt to UAF drone capabilities. UAF attacks on RUF drone production facilities will continue. RUF efforts to secure new partnerships could see further developments. Internal political and social dynamics in Russia, such as the Ivanov bankruptcy case or domestic incidents like forest fires and oil spills, water poisoning, or treason arrests, prevention of terrorist attacks, or embezzlement convictions, or issues with recruitment (detainees, internal crime), could influence long-term force generation. Increased RUF focus on electromagnetic weapons suggests a mid-term threat. UAF must assess the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure and resource constraints, especially the need for sustained external financial support, and integrate new volunteer air defense capabilities. Assess the long-term impact of the SBU Colonel assassination on Ukrainian internal security. Assess the impact of new international funding for Ukraine's recovery. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory after Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
- GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Is the current integrated multi-wave, prolonged (10-11 hour) attack on Kyiv from multiple vectors a new standard operating procedure, aiming to deplete UAF air defense munitions more rapidly and complicate interception over time? Which type of ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander, S-300 converted) was used in the Kyiv attack from the Sumy/Chernihiv directions, specifically the debris found in Vinohradar? What is the current Su-34 production and deployment rate after the latest batch transfer, and how will it impact KAB/KAR strike capabilities? What are the capabilities and likely vectors of the new UAV groups currently heading for Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv and now towards Zhytomyr Oblast, and those reported moving to Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk? What is the origin and capability of the "Gerbera" drone that fell in Lithuania and the unknown drone from Belarus?
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT to track RUF defense industrial base output and assess sustainability of high-volume, integrated, and prolonged attacks. Analyze flight patterns and timing of combined attacks on Kyiv for strategic intent and missile type identification. Forensic analysis of missile debris in Vinohradar. Monitor RUF airframe production and delivery schedules. Track new UAV groups for launch locations, flight patterns, and possible targets. Coordinate with Lithuanian authorities for BDA and origin analysis of the downed drone.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
- GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, particularly for systems capable of ballistic missile defense, after the latest intense, prolonged combined attack on Kyiv from multiple vectors (397 drones, 18 missiles), especially considering the reported 24,000 drones launched by Russia in 2025.
- CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements to gauge expenditure rates for different missile types.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Desertions (Sumy Ammunition Depot, Bessalivka VDV, Sumy Desertion, RUF "Zapad" claims, Lutsk Missile Division, Siversk/Chasiv Yar advances, Shebekino civilian casualties, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka/Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka/Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad advances, Melitopol Agents, Crimea Agent, UAF excavator destruction, Mykolaiv Iskander strike, Sumy Medical Facility, Voskresenka Engagements, SBU Colonel Assassination, Ternopil Crematoria, Tetkino Border Actions, Pokrovsk Engagements, Tolstoi FAB Strike, UAF Armored Vehicle Destruction, Izium Artillery, UAF Van Destruction):
- GAP: Independent verification of RUF claim of destroying the 80th Separate Airborne Brigade's ammunition depot near Pushkarevka, Sumy Oblast. Confirmation of the extent of damage and operational impact. Confirmation of the alleged VDV infiltration and ground operations in Bessalivka, Sumy Oblast, including troop numbers, objectives, and current status. Verification of the TASS claim regarding a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) desertion in Sumy direction, including unit identification, scale, and operational impact if true. Detailed BDA for the destroyed UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk and the UAF van. BDA for recent KAB/KAR strikes in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Pinpoint the exact location and tactical significance of "Dachne" (Donetsk Oblast) and confirm the RUF claim of capture/flag raising. Assess the veracity of RUF "Zapad" Group's claims of destroying 53 UAF drone control points, two mechanized brigades, and other assets. Verify claims of a strike on a missile division in Lutsk. Verify claimed RUF advances near Siversk and the extent of control in Chasiv Yar. Verify claimed UAF shelling impact in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, including civilian casualties and analyze the debris found, and movements near Figolevka. Verify reported RUF operational movements/advances in Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Borova-Borovska Andriivka, and Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad. Verify the FSB claim regarding the detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and a Ukrainian agent in Crimea and review the associated video evidence. Identify the specific RUF unit and capabilities indicated by "gathering for assault troops" on the Konstantinovka axis. Verify RUF "Vostok" Group's claim of destroying a UAF excavator and its impact. Verify "Военкор Котенок"'s claim of an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and conduct BDA. Verify "Two Mayors"' claim of targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast and the graphic image provided, assessing its authenticity and location. Verify the specific targets and BDA for the 5th Guards Tank Army's engagements near Voskresenka. Conduct immediate and thorough investigation into the alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv, including identifying perpetrator(s), motive, and operational links. Verify the existence and nature of the alleged "crematoria" in Ternopil Oblast cited by TASS/Butusov Plus. Verify the specific targets and BDA from Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны's claims of paratrooper strikes near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast and engagements near Pokrovsk. Verify TASS claim of FAB strike in Tolstoi destroying elite UAF units, including foreign mercenaries. Verify "Народная милиция ДНР" claim of destroyed UAF armored vehicles by 56th Special Purpose Brigade. Verify RUF artillery activity near Izium.
- CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite/aerial reconnaissance) and HUMINT from local sources/frontline units to verify claims and assess damage. Prioritize SIGINT and HUMINT in Sumy Oblast border regions for ground activity and UAF unit status. Cross-reference RUF "Zapad" claims with UAF internal reports and ISR. Conduct immediate IMINT/HUMINT on Lutsk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Shebekino, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Borova-Borovska Andriivka, Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Melitopol, Crimea, the excavator strike location, Barativka (Mykolaiv Oblast), the alleged Sumy medical facility, Voskresenka, the SBU Colonel assassination site in Kyiv, alleged Ternopil crematoria, Tetkino (Kursk Oblast), Pokrovsk, Tolstoi, UAF armored vehicle destruction sites, Izium, and the UAF van destruction site to verify strike and assess damage/control/agent status/crime scene.
Assessment of RUF Disinformation Campaign Regarding Chemical Weapons and Internal Discord:
- GAP: Full assessment of the intent and target audience for the RUF claim about UAF exploring chemical weapon equipped UAVs and the subsequent request for OPCW assistance. Is this a pretext for a false flag operation, or simply a justification for current attacks? Similarly, assess the strategic intent behind the UAF desertion claims (especially 150th Brigade) and claims of UAF drone attacks on civilians. Analyze the content and dissemination of the captured Ukrainian soldier's video about low morale and recruitment issues. Assess the impact and reach of RUF narratives exploiting natural disasters in Western Ukraine (e.g., "boomerang" claims) and those in other countries (e.g., Texas floods). Analyze the intent and impact of the RUF disinformation campaign regarding alleged UAF crematoria for dead soldiers. Analyze the intent and impact of Alex Parker Returns' "А нас за шо?" post and his other non-military related posts. Analyze the propaganda value of Рыбарь's "Zangezur Corridor" video and RUF amplification of Euractiv's claims of declining EU support.
- CR: Prioritize OSINT (RUF state media, social media analysis) and HUMINT to monitor the evolution of these disinformation narratives and identify potential operational pretexts. Analyze engagement and reach of the captured soldier video. Monitor RUF information channels for any shifts in narrative regarding Western aid and internal stability. Engage international bodies (e.g., OPCW) to preempt RUF false flag narratives.
Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk:
- GAP: Full and verified accounting of civilian casualties (killed/wounded, now 2 killed, 22 injured, including a police officer and an underage girl in Kyiv; 1 killed in Pokrovske Hromada; 2 injured in Zaporizhzhia; 9 killed, 10 injured in Donetsk; 1 killed in Shebekino, Russia) and detailed battle damage assessment (BDA) for residential buildings, non-residential buildings, schools, infrastructure, and other sites impacted by the combined ballistic missile and Shahed attack in Kyiv (Solomianskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, Podilskyi districts, Vinohradar, gas station, garages, Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium, 5 Kanal TV channel, and other areas impacted). Specific focus on the extent of "significant damage" in Shevchenkivskyi district confirmed by visual evidence and new video. Detailed BDA and casualty verification for the attack on Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Detailed BDA and casualty verification for the incident in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast.
- CR: Coordinate with civilian emergency services for rapid data collection. Utilize OSINT (local reports, social media, independent media) with stringent verification protocols.
Details on Renewed US Weapons Supplies and French Missile Production:
- GAP: Specific types and quantities of weapons and munitions included in the resumed US supplies (beyond 155mm and GMLRS). Delivery timelines and logistical implications. Production rates and delivery timelines for French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, and initial delivery capacity. Details on the "silent" increase in Patriot SAM procurement by the US. Full details of US President Trump's approval of additional arms requests for Ukraine. Details regarding the newly created flagship fund for Ukraine's recovery in Rome and the 10 billion Euro investment call.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT from diplomatic and military liaison channels. Monitor OSINT for further official announcements.
Effectiveness and Integration of New Volunteer Air Defense Groups and Domestic Drone Production:
- GAP: Assess the training, equipping, and tactical effectiveness of the newly formed air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations. How will they integrate into existing UAF air defense networks and contribute to the defense against high drone volumes? Assess the production capacity and deployment timelines for domestically produced fiber optic drones based on STERNENKO's fundraising efforts.
- CR: Conduct HUMINT from territorial defense units and relevant UAF commands. Monitor OSINT for training exercises, equipment issues, and operational deployments. Coordinate with domestic defense industries for production updates.
Impact of Lviv and Lutsk Flooding on Civilian Infrastructure and Military Logistics:
- GAP: Detailed assessment of the extent of damage to roads, bridges, and other critical infrastructure in Lviv Oblast and Lutsk City due to severe flooding. Potential impact on military logistics routes and resource availability (e.g., emergency services diverted).
- CR: Prioritize IMINT and OSINT (local reports, traffic updates) to assess flood damage and its implications for ground movement. Coordinate with local authorities for situational awareness.
"Rerezerv+" App Outage:
- GAP: Determine the cause of the outage (technical issue vs. cyberattack) and assess the impact on UAF personnel management, mobilization, and communication.
- CR: Prioritize Cyber Command and internal IT specialists for investigation. Conduct HUMINT with affected users and relevant UAF departments.
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
- GAP: Assess the extent to which internal issues (e.g., Solikamsk prison fire, domestic violence survey, arrests of former officials, ongoing forest fires, oil spills, Dagestan water poisoning, treason charges against individuals, prevention of terrorist attacks, movie premiere delays, football club exclusions, Kursk Battery Plant embezzlement, heatwave impacts on productivity, recruitment of detainees by МВД, crimes by servicemen like in Irkutsk Oblast, political issues with Gutsul) may divert RUF resources or impact long-term force generation. Assess the political implications of Putin's absence from the transport minister's funeral.
- CR: Prioritize OSINT and HUMINT to monitor these internal developments and their potential strategic implications.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

Immediate & Prioritized Air Defense Reinforcement for Kyiv and Northern/Western/Eastern Oblasts against Protracted Attacks: Direct the immediate allocation and deployment of all available air defense assets, particularly mobile air defense systems capable of ballistic missile interception and relevant interceptors, to Kyiv and its surrounding oblasts to counter ongoing and anticipated complex, protracted RUF attacks from multiple vectors. Expedite any available US air defense munitions (155mm, GMLRS, PAC-3 or equivalent) and facilitate rapid delivery of new French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, given the demonstrated RUF shift to combined, multi-axis, and prolonged attacks and the high volume of drone attacks (397 drones, 18 missiles in the last attack; 24,000 drones in 2025). Enhance air defense coverage for Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Cherkasy, Volyn, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk against missile, KAB/KAR, and reconnaissance UAV threats. Prioritize early warning and rapid response for reconnaissance UAVs, especially with the new group detected in Chernihiv moving towards Kyiv/Zhytomyr, and the UAVs detected heading for Rivne, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv, Burshtyn, and Busk. Integrate newly formed volunteer air defense groups into existing early warning and defensive networks and accelerate domestic fiber optic drone production and deployment.
- Action: Direct Air Force Command and Logistics Command to re-evaluate and optimize air defense posture for Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Cherkasy, Volyn, and Lviv. Coordinate with international partners for rapid munition resupply. Coordinate with Territorial Defense Forces and domestic drone manufacturers for volunteer air defense group integration and drone supply.
- POC: Air Force Command, Logistics Command, KMA, Territorial Defense Forces, Ministry of Defense Procurement.
Enhance Civilian Protection and Emergency Response for Sustained Attacks and Natural Disasters: Ensure immediate and sufficient resources (emergency services, medical personnel, psychological support, and rapid repair crews) are available in Kyiv to respond to ongoing and future impacts across all affected districts, recognizing the extended duration of recent attacks and the targeting of medical facilities and schools. Emphasize quick BDA to prioritize repairs and provide accurate information to the public, including clear instructions for shelter, especially given the ongoing drone threat and widespread smoke and poor air quality. Prioritize aid for Shevchenkivskyi and Podilskyi districts and other newly impacted areas in Kyiv, and Vasylivskyi district in Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovske Hromada in Dnipropetrovsk, Dobropillia and other impacted areas in Donetsk. Rapidly restore public transport routes and assist in repairs for 5 Kanal TV channel. Address impacts of severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk by coordinating immediate relief efforts and assessing infrastructure damage to minimize disruption to civilian life and potential military logistics. Expedite housing renovation programs where applicable (e.g., Kryvyi Rih).
- Action: KMA, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Donetsk OVA, Lviv OVA, Volyn OVA, Dnipropetrovsk OVA (including Kryvyi Rih City Administration) to coordinate with emergency services and public works. Ministry of Health to ensure medical readiness. Ministry of Interior to coordinate rapid response teams. Ministry of Infrastructure to address transport issues.
- POC: KMA, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Infrastructure, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Donetsk OVA, Lviv OVA, Volyn OVA, Dnipropetrovsk OVA.
Verify and Counter RUF Information Operations, Localized Ground Pressure, and Internal Security Threats: Immediately verify the RUF claim of the Sumy ammunition depot destruction, the VDV infiltration in Bessalivka, critically, the UAF battalion HQ (150th Brigade) desertion in Sumy, the claimed strike on a missile division in Lutsk, the FSB claim of UAF intelligence agent detentions in Melitopol (reviewing video evidence), the detention of an agent in Crimea, the destruction of the UAF excavator, the Iskander strike in Mykolaiv, the FAB strike in Tolstoi, and the destruction of UAF armored vehicles, and the UAF van. If confirmed, assess the operational impact and implement rapid resupply/force adjustments and counter-intelligence measures. For Sumy claims, assess the scale and intent of any RUF ground activity and deploy appropriate rapid response forces and ISR to contain or repel. Enhance camouflage, dispersal, and layered air defense for remaining critical logistical nodes across the front, especially in areas targeted by KABs/KARs and potential ground incursions. Verify RUF claims of advances near Siversk and the extent of control in Chasiv Yar and provide immediate updates to frontline commands. Monitor and analyze RUF "Naval Special Purpose Detachment Espanola" activities for emerging tactics. Monitor and analyze "gathering for assault troops" on Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad axes for signs of imminent offensive. Immediately investigate the alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv, treating it as a hostile intelligence operation, and implement enhanced security measures for high-value personnel. Verify RUF claims of targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast and take appropriate action if confirmed as a violation of IHL. Verify and strongly counter the RUF disinformation campaign regarding alleged UAF crematoria for dead soldiers in Ternopil. Verify and counter RUF claims of destroying UAF equipment/C2 points near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast and engagements near Pokrovsk. Address the diplomatic pressure from Hungary by providing transparent information.
- Action: Direct G2 and IMINT assets to conduct immediate BDA on the Pushkarevka site, Bessalivka, Lutsk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Shebekino, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Borova-Borovska Andriivka, Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Melitopol, Crimea, the excavator strike location, Barativka (Mykolaiv Oblast), the alleged Sumy medical facility, Voskresenka, the SBU Colonel assassination site in Kyiv, alleged Ternopil crematoria, Tetkino (Kursk Oblast), Pokrovsk, Tolstoi, UAF armored vehicle destruction sites, Izium, and the UAF van destruction site. Direct General Staff and regional commands to assess the Sumy, Lutsk, Melitopol, Crimea, SBU assassination, and Ternopil claims and deploy necessary ground forces and ISR/internal security. Direct Logistics Command to assess impact and plan mitigation. Continue counter-sabotage operations across Ukraine.
- POC: General Staff, G2, Logistics Command, Regional Commands (e.g., Sumy, Volyn, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk), SBU, National Police.
Proactive and Resilient Information Management & Security against Escalating Disinformation: Continue to provide real-time, transparent updates on RUF attacks on Kyiv, highlighting the combined, multi-vector, and protracted nature of the ballistic missile and drone strikes, civilian impacts across multiple districts (including medical facilities, schools, and police casualties), and the ongoing effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense (178/415 targets shot down). Immediately and forcefully counter RUF claims regarding UAF exploring chemical weapon UAVs and UAF drone attacks on civilians, labeling them as dangerous and false disinformation aimed at justifying war crimes. Officially request an OPCW investigation into RUF's claims to proactively counter their narrative and pre-empt false flag operations. Counter all other RUF claims of successful strikes (e.g., "Dachne" capture, Sumy depot, Bessalivka VDV operations, UAF desertion, "Zapad" group claims, Russian MoD drone shootdown claims, Lutsk strike, Siversk advances, Chasiv Yar control, Shebekino shelling, Melitopol agent detentions, Crimea agent detention, excavator destruction, Mykolaiv Iskander strike, NATO ordnance demonstrations, Sumy medical facility targeting, Voskresenka engagements, SBU Colonel assassination, Ternopil crematoria, Pokrovsk engagements, Tolstoi FAB strike, UAF armored vehicle destruction) and propaganda narratives (e.g., "boomerang" flooding, Texas floods, "А нас за шо?", declining EU support) with verified information and visual evidence where possible. Leverage international media to expose the indiscriminate and escalating nature of RUF attacks on civilian centers, emphasizing the deliberate targeting of population centers with dual-threat, prolonged attacks, and the parallel disinformation campaign. Immediately investigate and address the reported TikTok livestreaming incident and the "Rerezerv+" app outage to prevent future compromise of operational security, establish robust public security guidelines for media sharing during attacks, and restore critical digital infrastructure. Coordinate with Lithuanian authorities to manage the narrative regarding the drone incident.
- Action: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security to issue immediate public statements, engage international journalists, and debunk disinformation. Ministry of Foreign Affairs to brief international partners, press for condemnation of RUF disinformation tactics, and formally engage OPCW. Counter-Intelligence and Cyber Command to investigate TikTok incident and "Rerezerv+" outage and issue security advisories.
- POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Counter-Intelligence, Cyber Command.
Intensify Efforts for Financial and Military Support: Emphasize the urgent and ongoing need for international financial assistance (approx. $3 billion USD/month) to maintain state functions and civilian resilience, separate from military aid, particularly in light of increased damage and casualty response requirements (e.g., medical facility destruction, widespread civilian infrastructure damage). Coordinate with the Ministry of Finance and diplomatic channels to accelerate funding commitments. Actively engage with US and French counterparts to ensure rapid delivery of pledged and newly produced military aid, specifically 155mm artillery, GMLRS, and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, and to clarify any issues preventing high-level US-Ukraine defense coordination. Leverage the US's increased Patriot SAM procurement and Trump's recent approvals to advocate for faster deliveries to Ukraine. Monitor the meeting between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov for any developments relevant to Ukraine. Highlight the transparent use of received funds (e.g., 1 billion euros from EU) and advocate for further contributions to the new flagship recovery fund and the European Fund for Ukraine's recovery.
- Action: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense.
- POC: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense.
Enhance Logistics and Tactical Equipment Sustainment: Continue efforts to secure and distribute essential tactical equipment, such as FPV drones and portable power stations, from both international aid and volunteer channels, to frontline units, as demonstrated by the recent deliveries to Zaporizhzhia and the fundraising efforts of the "Rubizh" brigade and STERNENKO. Prioritize the procurement and domestic production of fiber optic drones. Replenish destroyed tactical vehicles (e.g., the van destroyed by FPV drone).
- Action: Logistics Command, Ministry of Defense Procurement.
- POC: Logistics Command.