INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT
TIME: 092326Z JUL 25
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
- Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk): RUF video (Colonelcassad) confirms destruction of a UAF pickup truck with infantry in Kupyansk area, likely via FPV drone. This indicates continued RUF FPV drone operations and targeted strikes against UAF personnel and light vehicles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Donetsk Oblast (Kyiv): Multiple reports confirm ongoing RUF Shahed (moped) attacks on Kyiv. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 4 drones over Kyiv, then 6 more entering from Boryspil direction, totaling at least 10 Shaheds. KMA confirms hits on residential buildings in Shevchenkivskyi and Darnytskyi districts. Debris fell in a residential courtyard in Darnytskyi. In Shevchenkivskyi, drone parts impacted near a gas station and on a residential roof, with one building having a fire on its upper floor and another report of burning garages. Medics were called to Shevchenkivskyi. Explosions are ongoing, and air defense is active. STERNENKO reports reflect frustration with the ongoing attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Sumy Oblast (Pushkarevka): RUF video (Colonelcassad) claims aerial destruction of a large ammunition depot of the 80th Separate Airborne Brigade of the AFU near Pushkarevka. This indicates continued RUF aviation and intelligence efforts targeting UAF logistics in the Sumy direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
- No new significant weather or environmental updates affecting operations since last report. The heatwave in Ukraine is ongoing. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
- UAF: Actively engaged in air defense operations over Kyiv against a new wave of RUF Shahed drones. Medical services and emergency responders are active in Kyiv managing attack consequences. UAF General Staff and KMA are providing updates on ongoing attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- RUF: Sustaining large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks, with a new wave of Shahed drones targeting Kyiv. RUF continues to employ FPV drones for tactical strikes (Kupyansk). RUF aviation is active in Sumy Oblast, targeting UAF logistics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
- Capabilities: RUF demonstrates persistent capability for high-volume, multi-vector deep aerial strikes against Ukrainian population centers, specifically Kyiv, using Shahed drones. They maintain effective FPV drone capabilities for tactical strikes against UAF vehicles and personnel. RUF aviation retains the ability to conduct precision strikes on UAF logistics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Intentions:
- Deep Strikes (Kyiv): Continue to overwhelm UAF air defenses and inflict damage on civilian infrastructure and morale in the capital. The sustained attacks indicate an intent to create fear and disruption.
- Tactical Targeting (Kupyansk/Sumy): Continue to attrit UAF personnel and equipment with FPV drones and target key logistical nodes with aviation.
- Information Warfare (Brazil): TASS reporting on Brazil's response to US tariffs suggests an intent to highlight divisions in the US-led international order and portray US economic policy negatively, aligning with broader RUF narratives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Courses of Action:
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue its current pattern of attritional ground assaults in Donbas and Kupyansk, while maintaining persistent, high-volume aerial attacks on Ukrainian urban centers, including Kyiv, with Shahed drones. Expect further FPV drone use on the front lines and targeted aviation strikes on UAF logistics. Russia will continue to exploit international economic and political tensions in its information operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): No change from previous report. Russia executes a coordinated, multi-pronged assault, combining the Kharkiv push with a significant increase in offensive tempo towards Chasiv Yar, aiming to achieve an operational-level breakthrough in the Donbas while Ukrainian command and control is focused on the new northern threat. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
- RUF: Sustained and multi-directional Shahed drone attacks on Kyiv in rapid succession, following previous waves, indicating an adaptive and persistent targeting strategy to maintain pressure on the capital. Continued effective use of FPV drones in Kupyansk area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- UAF: UAF air defense demonstrating responsiveness against a new, sustained wave of Shahed drones targeting Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
- RUF: The ongoing wave of Shahed attacks on Kyiv, following record-setting strikes, suggests continued high production or import capacity for drones. Claimed destruction of a large UAF ammunition depot in Sumy, if verified, would represent a significant UAF logistical setback. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on drone supply), LOW (on Sumy depot claim verification).
- UAF: No new information on UAF logistics or sustainment status beyond what was in the previous report. The successful interception of prior RUF air assets indicates ongoing, albeit strained, air defense munition supply. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
- RUF: Maintains effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes on Kyiv. Tactical C2 for FPV drone operations and aviation strikes against UAF logistics appears effective. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, as seen in Kyiv. Local C2 (KMA, Mayor Klychko) is effective in managing civilian response and damage assessment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
- Force Posture: UAF maintains a nationwide air defense network, particularly critical in Kyiv, actively engaging incoming threats. Frontline units are holding defensive positions and conducting counter-fire operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and active air defense responses to the new Shahed attack on Kyiv. Emergency services are mobilized for rapid response to impacts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
- Successes:
- Ongoing Air Defense Interceptions: UAF air defense is actively engaging and intercepting incoming Shahed drones over Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Setbacks:
- Direct Hits on Kyiv Civilian Infrastructure: Confirmed impacts on residential buildings in Shevchenkivskyi and Darnytskyi districts, with related fires and calls for medics. This represents a direct hit on civilian areas, causing damage and potential casualties.
- RUF Claimed Destruction of UAF Ammunition Depot: RUF claims a successful aviation strike on a large ammunition depot of the 80th Separate Airborne Brigade near Pushkarevka, Sumy Oblast. This, if verified, would be a significant logistical setback.
- Targeting of UAF Personnel/Vehicles: RUF FPV drone strike destroyed a UAF pickup truck with infantry in Kupyansk.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Kyiv impacts/Kupyansk strike), LOW (Sumy depot claim verification).
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
- Air Defense Munitions: Continued CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT for air defense interceptors due to the persistent and high-volume RUF aerial attacks on the capital.
- Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and Repair Resources: Increased need for resources for rapid BDA and repair/recovery operations in Kyiv due to multiple impacts.
- Logistical Protection (Sumy): Need for enhanced air defense and camouflage for logistical nodes, especially in exposed areas like Sumy Oblast, given RUF claims of successful strikes on depots.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
- RUF Narratives: RUF sources (Colonelcassad) are immediately broadcasting claims of successful strikes on UAF logistics (Sumy ammunition depot) and personnel/equipment (Kupyansk pickup truck) to project military effectiveness. TASS is leveraging Brazil's stance on US tariffs to support narratives of anti-US sentiment and economic warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- UAF Counter-Narratives: UAF sources (KMA, RBC-Ukraine) are providing real-time updates on RUF attacks on Kyiv, emphasizing civilian impacts and the active defense. STERNENKO's emotional messages convey frustration and defiance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
- Ukrainian Public: The new, sustained wave of Shahed attacks on Kyiv will undoubtedly cause significant anxiety, fear, and frustration among the civilian population. Reports of residential building impacts, fires, and calls for medics will further heighten distress. The ongoing air defense efforts will provide some reassurance, but the continuous nature of the threat is demoralizing. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Russian Public: RUF channels' immediate publication of claimed successful strikes (Sumy, Kupyansk) aims to bolster domestic morale and reinforce narratives of military success and effectiveness against Ukrainian forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
- International Reaction to US Tariffs: Brazil's statement on responding to US tariffs (TASS) indicates ongoing international economic and diplomatic tensions that Russia will likely exploit to portray US actions negatively and potentially find common ground with other states facing similar pressures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
- Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas and localized pressure in Kupyansk/Kharkiv Oblast.
- Increased Frequency and Volume of Aerial Strikes with High-Value Munitions & Indiscriminate Use: RUF will likely maintain a high frequency and volume of combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, with a priority on continued Shahed attacks on Kyiv in multiple, persistent waves to exhaust air defenses and inflict psychological and physical damage. Expect further civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. RUF will continue FPV drone use for tactical targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging all military actions for propaganda.
- Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to seek and strengthen diplomatic and economic ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity, including leveraging global economic tensions (e.g., US tariffs).
- Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone Enhancement/Counter-UAV Tech: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities.
- Digital Sovereignty & Data Expansion: RUF will likely accelerate efforts to achieve digital sovereignty and expand state data collection. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
- Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: No change from previous report. Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: No change from previous report. RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
- IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours): Continued intense air defense engagements over Kyiv due to the ongoing Shahed attack. Immediate damage assessment and casualty response in Kyiv (Shevchenkivskyi and Darnytskyi districts). UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving situation in Kyiv while maintaining broader operational awareness. Verify RUF claim of ammunition depot destruction near Pushkarevka, Sumy Oblast.
- SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas. Continued UAF cross-border drone activity. Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions following the Kyiv attack. Monitor for any follow-up RUF aerial attacks on Kyiv or other major cities.
- MID-TERM (24-72 hours): Clarity on new US and EU aid. RUF will continue to adapt to UAF drone capabilities. UAF attacks on RUF drone production facilities will continue. RUF efforts to secure new partnerships could see further developments. Internal political and social dynamics in Russia could influence long-term force generation. Increased RUF focus on electromagnetic weapons suggests a mid-term threat.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory after Record Attack & New Strike Patterns:
- GAP: Full assessment of the current Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Is the current multi-wave, sustained attack on Kyiv a new standard operating procedure, aiming to deplete UAF air defense munitions more rapidly?
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT to track RUF defense industrial base output and assess sustainability of high-volume attacks. Analyze flight patterns and timing of Shahed attacks on Kyiv for strategic intent.
- Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes (Sumy Ammunition Depot, Kupyansk Pickup Truck):
- GAP: Independent verification of RUF claim of destroying the 80th Separate Airborne Brigade's ammunition depot near Pushkarevka, Sumy Oblast. Confirmation of the extent of damage and operational impact. Detailed BDA for the destroyed UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk.
- CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite/aerial reconnaissance) and HUMINT from local sources/frontline units to verify claims and assess damage.
- UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Attack:
- GAP: Immediate assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, particularly for systems deployed in Kyiv, after the latest intense Shahed attack.
- CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements to gauge expenditure rates.
- Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kyiv:
- GAP: Full and verified accounting of civilian casualties (killed/wounded) and detailed battle damage assessment (BDA) for residential buildings, infrastructure, and other sites impacted by the Shahed attack in Kyiv (Shevchenkivskyi, Darnytskyi districts, gas station, garages).
- CR: Coordinate with civilian emergency services for rapid data collection. Utilize OSINT (local reports, social media) with verification.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
- Immediate Air Defense Reinforcement for Kyiv: Prioritize immediate allocation and deployment of all available air defense assets, particularly mobile air defense systems and interceptors, to Kyiv and its surrounding oblasts to counter ongoing and anticipated Shahed attacks. Expedite any available US air defense munitions.
- Action: Direct Air Force Command and Logistics Command to re-evaluate and optimize air defense posture for Kyiv. Coordinate with international partners for rapid munition resupply.
- POC: Air Force Command, Logistics Command, KMA.
- Verify and Mitigate Impact of RUF Strikes on Logistics: Immediately verify the RUF claim of the Sumy ammunition depot destruction. If confirmed, assess the operational impact on the 80th Separate Airborne Brigade and implement rapid resupply and alternative logistical arrangements. Enhance camouflage and air defense for remaining critical logistical nodes across the front.
- Action: Direct G2 and IMINT assets to conduct immediate BDA on the Pushkarevka site. Direct Logistics Command to assess impact and plan mitigation.
- POC: General Staff, G2, Logistics Command.
- Rapid Response and Resilience for Kyiv: Ensure immediate and sufficient resources (emergency services, medical personnel, repair crews) are available in Kyiv to respond to ongoing and future impacts. Emphasize quick BDA to prioritize repairs and provide accurate information to the public.
- Action: KMA to coordinate with emergency services and public works. Ministry of Health to ensure medical readiness.
- POC: KMA, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Infrastructure.
- Proactive Information Management: Continue to provide real-time, transparent updates on RUF attacks on Kyiv, highlighting civilian impacts and the ongoing effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Counter RUF claims of successful strikes with verified information. Leverage international media to expose the indiscriminate nature of RUF attacks on civilian centers.
- Action: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security to issue immediate public statements and engage international journalists.
- POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
END OF REPORT
