Sitrep 2025-07-09 20:57:37

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 092056Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk/Vovchansk/Lyptsi): RUF continues pressure, confirmed by RUF tactical map highlighting contested areas around Lyptsi and Vovchansk and lines of advance. New RUF video shows aerial reconnaissance targeting Vilcha and Bologovka, south of Vovchansk and near Kupyansk, with attributed high-precision munitions and drone strikes. Kadyrov_95 reports "Akhmat" Spetsnaz MO RF operating in Kharkiv direction, destroying an observation post and machine gun nest near the Ukrainian flag. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports RUF shelling of Pechenihy, resulting in one casualty. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast from the north. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk): UAF General Staff confirms clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Yablunivka, Rusyne Yaru and towards Katerynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UAF drone and artillery engaging "mangal"-armored RUF tanks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kramatorsk): RUF continues pressure on Chasiv Yar, with possible incremental gains on eastern outskirts. Fierce battles reported near Pokrovsk with RUF claims of destroying UAF/NATO equipment. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade using ground robots (UGVs) near Chasiv Yar. New reports from UAF General Staff confirm clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Myrne, Malynivka, Myrolubivka, Razine, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Promin, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Oleksiyivka, Zelenyy Kut, Horikhove and towards Pokrovsk, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske and Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk direction). Clashes also near Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction). Poddubny reports a large concentration of Ukrainian troops (8,000-15,000) in Konstantinovka. RBC-Ukraine and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report FPV-drone and airstrikes on Konstantinovka, resulting in three killed and one wounded civilian. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): Kotsnews reports RUF advances. "Два майора" references a "virtual 'storming of Siversk'," which may precede an offensive. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Donetsk Oblast (Krasnoarmeysk/Kamyševaha/Tolsoty): RUF claims liberation of Tolsoty, confirmed by multiple RUF sources and video. RUF video shows drone reconnaissance and strikes during the "liberation." "Народная милиция ДНР" video shows drone footage of damaged buildings and explosions in Yablunivka. Операция Z claims Russian Army took Zelena Dolyna and advanced on a wide front towards Sredne, Shandrygolovo, and Kolodezi on an area up to 40 km². UAF Air Force reports repeated КАБ launches on Donetsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Dobropillya): RBC-Ukraine reports a mass FPV-drone attack by RUF on Dobropillya, with videos showing multiple civilian vehicles engulfed in flames and thick black smoke. ASTRA reports five people wounded. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three civilians injured in Polohivskyi District and one in Stepnohirska community. UAF 44th Separate Artillery Brigade (44 OABr) is conducting effective counter-battery fire. WarGonzo reports a burned UAF pickup truck on the Zaporizhzhia front with a deceased UAF soldier. MoD Russia video claims "Artillery of Vostok Group of Forces engages UAV command posts of enemy." WarGonzo posts video of "Paratroopers break into AFU strongholds." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "Два майора" post videos showing damaged residential buildings from artillery strikes. New reports of explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Операция Z reports 429th Regiment destroying UAF defense and infantry in battles for Kamenske. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: One private house damaged from RUF aerial attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a 65-year-old man died from falling debris of a downed UAV. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Volyn Oblast (Lutsk): Regional military administration reports approximately 50 RUF UAVs and 5 missiles in Volyn airspace, with Lutsk being the main target. Mayor confirms 4 Kinzhals and 1 cruise missile hit Lutsk, with photos confirming significant damage. RUF MoD claims successful group strike by long-range high-precision air-based weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, against military airfield infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: UAF air defenders destroyed 17 RUF UAVs. UAF Air Force reports КАBs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and high-speed targets from Donetsk Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Serhiy Lysak reports three districts attacked. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Trebukhiv/Brovary/VDNH): "РБК-Україна" reports a large fire in Trebukhiv and a woman injured in Brovary. A fire at VDNH in Kyiv (dinosaur exhibit) is not militarily significant. New air raid alert for Kyiv and several oblasts due to UAV threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zhytomyr Oblast: "РБК-Україна" reports fires in Zhytomyr Oblast with damage to a carpentry workshop. Colonelcassad reports RUF likely monitoring Ozernyy Airfield as a high-value target for UAF foreign equipment deliveries. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: UAF Air Force detected an RUF reconnaissance UAV. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports ballistic missile strike on Baratovka and Tuzly. "РБК-Україна" reports an emergency power outage in Mykolaiv and an atypical morning drone attack for the first time in the war. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports a general alert regarding "mopeds" (Shaheds). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: RBU-Ukraine reports an RUF drone killed a one-year-old child in Kherson Oblast, corroborated by Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights and Silioborony Pivdnya Ukrainy. RBC-Ukraine reports Russians once again shelled the train station in Kherson. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on RUF "hunting civilians like in a safari" with daily drone attacks. MoD Russia video shows "Artillery of Vostok Group of Forces engages UAV command posts of enemy in right bank of the Dnepr River (Kherson region)" with aerial footage of a destroyed village. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Bryansk/Moscow Oblasts): RUF Ministry of Defense claims 86 UAF aircraft-type UAVs were shot down. Moscow-based sources report explosions from "unknown drones" in Moscow Oblast (Zelenograd). ASTRA reports new complaints about Telegram outages in Russia. "Новости Москвы" posts photos of new alleged "gifts" (drone wreckage) in Moscow. TASS reports Telegram's partial translation function has resumed for some users, indicating a possible IT resolution or workaround for recent issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Kursk Oblast): ASTRA reports RUF PVO shot down a UAV over a beach in Kursk, resulting in 3 killed and 7 injured. Khinshtein claims targeted strike by UAF. TASS reports the 5-year-old boy injured in the Kursk beach attack has died. Kotsnews and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also confirm the child's death. STERNENKO reports "death roads" in Kursk Oblast thanks to Novem Group special unit Ballista, with video of a convoy being struck. "Басурин о главном" posts a highly emotional propaganda video attributing the child's death to a Ukrainian attack. Kotsnews posts a photo message "For the boy Anatoliy from Kursk," showing a projectile with the inscription. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Belgorod Oblast/Shebekino): ASTRA reports first ambulances in Shebekino with anti-drone nets. BUUTSOV PLUS provides photo evidence of this adaptation. ASTRA reports one person killed and two injured in Kolotilovskiy farm from an IED. TASS reports a woman was injured by falling debris of a downed UAF drone in a settlement near Belgorod. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Saratov Oblast/Orenburg/Udmurtia): TASS reports prevention of a "terrorist attack" in Saratov Oblast, with FSB claiming liquidation of a "saboteur" planning to blow up a railway bridge. TASS reports five Russians detained for arson on transport facilities for "honorariums" from Kyiv. SK charged teenagers in Orenburg/Udmurtia with terrorism for setting fire to railway equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Crimea: "РБК-Україна" reports a strong explosion. RUF MoD claims two drones shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kryvyi Rih: Local administration reports the situation remains controlled. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF "WarGonzo" map shows activity. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs and КАБы (glide bombs) and high-speed aerial targets. UAF General Staff reports repelling 16 Russian army assaults. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Border Guard Service mobile fire groups shot down 6 Shaheds and 7 "Gerbera" drones. "Два майора" posts video titled "Sumy Direction," showing active military operations near Pisarevka and Khoten. RBC-Ukraine reports a sound of explosion and renewed power outages in Sumy and some districts due to enemy attack on a regional energy facility. UAF Air Force alerts for UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast, and UAVs on the north, east, and west of Sumy Oblast, heading west and southwest. "Два майора" posts aerial footage showing multiple explosions in Kondratovka area, Sumy Oblast, attributed to Russian Aerospace Forces. TASS claims Polish mercenaries abandoned positions (requires independent verification). STERNENKO reports Ukraine is under massive drone attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (for fighting/damage), LOW (for Polish mercenary claim).
Lyman Direction: UAF General Staff confirms clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Ridkodub, Hryhorivka and towards Shandryholove and Seredne. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a tactical map of Krasnolimanskoye direction. Операция Z claims Russian Army took Zelena Dolyna and advanced towards Sredne, Shandrygolovo, and Kolodezi. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Pskov Oblast: Governor bans residents from publishing information about drone strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire at a substation in the suburbs of Veliky Novgorod, Pskov Oblast, accompanied by aerial footage of a large fire and smoke, suggesting a successful UAF deep strike on energy infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Southern Donetsk Direction (Velyka Novosilka - Vilne Pole): RUF sources indicate continued operations. "Воин DV" posts video showing aerial perspective of a road intersection with vehicles and smoke plumes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk City: Mash on Donbas reports two utility workers injured from an IED and a cemetery set on fire. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Occupied Territories (Ukraine): "РБК-Україна" reports a woman and three children returned from occupied territory. ECHR recognized Russia's responsibility for human rights violations in Donbas and for downing MH17. TASS reports footage from a crematorium in Ternopil Oblast (likely RUF information operation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Luhansk Oblast (Krasnodon): Mash on Donbas reports fires approaching houses near Krasnodon. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Moldova (Chisinau): TASS reports protests outside a court building in Chisinau. TASS reports Romanian authorities banned Chisinau Mayor Ceban's entry. TASS reports Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Moldova. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Internal Russia (Voronezh Oblast/Moscow): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports detention of former Voronezh Oblast Deputy Governor Shvyrkova. TASS reports blogger Shchepikhi and former Ukrainian Vice-Prime Minister Kolesnikov added to extremist list. TASS reports Moscow Art Theater entrance closed with law enforcement inside, and director Kekhman detained. TASS reports Aeroflot will resume regular flights from Moscow to Gelendzhik on July 18. TASS reports Gelendzhik airport is ready for civilian flights from July 10. TASS reports former Voronezh Oblast Deputy Governor Shvyrkov arrested for a month. TASS reports Volodin urged Reshetnikov to study procedural matters. Alex Parker Returns reports deportation of head of Azerbaijani diaspora of Moscow Oblast. TASS reports "Meduza" founder Galina Timchenko заочно arrested. TASS reports Mikhail Bogdanov resigned as Deputy Foreign Minister. ASTRA reports a National Bolshevik (natsbol) was detained in Moscow for throwing kefir at propagandist Boris Yakemenko. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Internal Russia (Dagestan): TASS reports a municipal institution director detained due to infection outbreak, and 274 people poisoned by water. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Unspecified Location (Convoy): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video showing a rusty trailer filled with black plastic bags (body bags) and a wounded person evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on the north of Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. RBC-Ukraine also reports Shaheds heading towards Chernihiv. Andriy Kovalenko, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, reports that Russia is currently using Belarusian territory for Shahed overflights into Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lviv Oblast (Novoyavorivsk): The Coordination Staff for POWs has participated in an outreach meeting with families of defenders. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Unspecified Location (Donbas): Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing explosions, damaged buildings, and targeting of 'Baba-Yaga' drones, 'Drone-repeaters,' M113, and 'manpower.' БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows soldiers digging in a wooded area, with caption implying recovery of personnel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS drone video shows explosions impacting a wooded area, with 63rd Brigade emblem. DeepState posts a chart on enemy assault intensity in June. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Red Sea: ASTRA reports Houthi capture of the crew of the Greek bulk carrier Eternity C, sunk in the Red Sea. Colonelcassad posts video footage of the sinking. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Iran: Iranian media reports that the last IAEA representatives have left Iran, and all remaining surveillance cameras on Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely dismantled, effectively ending Iran's cooperation with the IAEA. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
International (United States/Brazil): Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns report Trump has intensified trade war against Brazil, imposing 50% tariffs. Операция Z reports US is preparing 500% tariffs on Russian oil and uranium for countries purchasing energy resources from Russia, with Trump's condition of having control over their removal. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
France: TASS and Alex Parker Returns report the detention of Russian basketball player Daniil Kasatkin in France, facing extradition to the US on suspicion of involvement in a ransomware hacking group. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Internal Russia (Unspecified): НгП раZVедка channel issues a strong warning: "These naive people thought that the first hundred rockets would be the end of it. No way, they won't sleep at all tonight," implying further, continuous strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Moscow reported its warmest night in 39 years and anticipates rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds, which may impact UAV operations in the Moscow region. RBC-Ukraine reports an upcoming heatwave in Ukraine, with potential for temperatures up to +40 degrees Celsius. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrenergo calls for electricity conservation due to ongoing strain on the energy grid from RUF strikes. Renewed power outages in Sumy are confirmed due to an enemy attack on a regional energy facility. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
A House of Prayer in Shepetivka was struck by lightning and is on fire (not militarily significant). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF: Maintaining active defense posture with localized counterattack capabilities (Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kherson). Demonstrated high volume cross-border UAV operations. Highly engaged in air defense across multiple oblasts, neutralizing 741 targets (728 drones, 13 missiles) overnight, including over 300 Shaheds. UAF successfully employed "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups (Sumy Oblast). US military aid supply has resumed. UAF 77th Airmobile Brigade captured an RUF officer. UAF 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade captured a 163rd Tank Regiment soldier. UAF unit "Wormbusters" destroyed an RUF Strela-10 SAM. UAF General Staff confirms 100 TOS-1A, TOS-2 systems destroyed. UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reports destroying 15 Russian artillery pieces. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade using ground robots (UGVs) in offensive operations near Chasiv Yar. UAF Phoenix Border Guard Service unit effective in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF SSOs (Special Operations Forces) UA_REG TEAM have neutralized a Russian "Zemledelie" remote mining system. Oleg Synegubov (Kharkiv Oblast Governor) and KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) engaged in post-strike recovery efforts. UAF General Staff posts on equipment and training for drone systems. Syrsky states units from SBS and "Drone Line" struck every third target in June. Presidential Brigade video shows successful drone-based combat operations. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UAF successful airstrike on RUF positions, with claims of "burial of Putin's assault troops." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF: Sustaining ground pressure in Kupyansk and positional fighting in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Southern Donetsk (Tolsoty). Executing large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting deep Ukrainian cities (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv Oblast) utilizing a record number of drones (728) and missiles (13), including 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk, confirmed by RUF MoD. Actively countering UAF cross-border UAVs. Engaged in coordinated information warfare. RUF sources actively fundraising for drones (DJI Mavic 3 Pro) and assault troops. RUF ambulances observed with anti-drone nets in Belgorod. RUF MoD implementing a rapid online confirmation system for military service. Alex Parker Returns video shows an armored vehicle with "anti-FPV drone" measures. RUF sources claim UAF mined bodies of their comrades near Novoukrainka. MoD Russia video features an AFU POW claiming heavy Ukrainian losses and low morale, detailing torture by Ukrainian Military Police. Colonelcassad's animated scheme shows widespread RUF strikes. Rybar posts video showcasing "new generation of Tsar-mangals" (heavily camouflaged armored vehicles). MoD Russia video shows artillery in camouflaged position and destroyed village in Kherson. Операция Z claims Russian Army took Zelena Dolyna and advanced on a wide front. Kadyrov_95 video shows Akhmat Spetsnaz MO RF operating in Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad reports China's MO confirmed readiness to supply J-10C 4th-generation aircraft to "friendly countries." Операция Z photo messages claim Ukrainian Rada denied Zelenskyy's claims about interceptor drones shooting down "Geraniums." RUF channel "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a graphic claiming widespread strikes on Ukraine overnight. Colonelcassad reports Rostec is developing technology to detect stealth drones on fiber optics. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo messages indicate continued information operation efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates continued capacity for localized ground offensives, robust defensive operations, and record-setting multi-vector deep aerial strikes (728 drones and 13 missiles, including 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk). Their air defense capabilities remain effective (86 UAVs claimed shot down). RUF retains robust information warfare capabilities. RUF units continue to solicit donations for specific equipment (drones, thermal imagers, Starlink terminals). Adoption of anti-drone nets on ambulances and improvised anti-FPV drone armor indicates tactical adaptation. RUF observed using FPV drones against UAF vehicles. The equipping of over 800 tanks with Kontakt-1 Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) and the call for aerial relays for their strike drones highlights adaptive measures and limitations. MoD Russia video shows effective kamikaze drone strikes. RUF has demonstrated the capability for mass FPV drone attacks on urban areas (Dobropillya). Colonelcassad reports Rostec's development of fiber optic drone detection indicates an emerging counter-UAV capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Kupyansk/Vovchansk/Lyptsi: Continue incremental territorial gains, exert pressure on Kharkiv via shelling and probing actions, and KAB launches. Tactical map from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and Akhmat Spetsnaz operations confirm ongoing offensive intent.
- Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Toretsk/Konstantinovka/Tolsoty/Pokrovsk/Lyman/Siversk/Kramatorsk/Kamenske): Maintain pressure, achieve breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, repel UAF counterattacks, prevent UAF from seizing initiative. Specific offensive intent in Konstantinovka, Southern Donetsk (Tolsoty), Siversk, Krasnolimanskoye, and Kamenske on the Zaporizhzhia front.
- Deep Strikes: Continue to target critical and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine (military airfields, logistics, energy, population centers - Lutsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Sumy energy facilities, Kherson train station, Dobropillya). Increased volume and use of Kinzhals signifies intent to overwhelm UAF air defenses. The killing of civilians, including children (Kherson, Kursk, Konstantinovka), indicates a brutal and indiscriminate application of this capability. RUF graphic (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) indicates continued intention for widespread strikes, reinforced by НгП раZVедка's warning of continuous nocturnal attacks. The reported use of Belarusian territory for Shahed overflights indicates intent to exploit new vectors and bypass existing air defenses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Information Warfare: Continue to promote narratives of UAF losses, RUF successes, and UAF aggression against Russian territory (Kursk beach incident, alleged Ukrainian sabotage, alleged UAF mined bodies, POW torture claims) to justify operations and maintain domestic support. Attempt to sow discord within Ukrainian society by highlighting purported negative aspects of mobilization. New messaging from Alex Parker Returns deriding Ukrainian funerals as a "carnival" attempts to dehumanize Ukrainians and their grief. The "Top News Today" photo messages from MoD Russia indicate a structured intent to disseminate specific information. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: Intensify counter-sabotage and counter-terrorism operations within Russia. Broader crackdown on dissent or perceived threats (detentions of former officials, Moscow Art Theater incident, "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen," "Meduza" founder arrest, actions against "pseudo-religious organizations"). Detention of a National Bolshevik for "kefir-throwing" indicates low-level dissent is also being suppressed. The detention of a Russian basketball player in France on hacking charges highlights an intent to pursue cyber capabilities and their consequences. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Diplomatic Strategy: Continue efforts to normalize relations with non-Western countries. Exploit Western disunity. Continue to present Russia as a victim and Ukraine as refusing negotiations. Iranian withdrawal from IAEA cooperation may be seen by Russia as an opportunity for closer military-technical cooperation. Trump's actions against Brazil and proposed tariffs on Russian energy are being framed by RUF sources as further evidence of US aggressive intent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue attritional ground assaults in key Donbas sectors (Chasiv Yar main effort, increasing pressure on Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk, and continued local advances like Tolsoty and Siversk) and maintain localized pressure in Kupyansk and Kharkiv Oblast via shelling and probing actions, including FPV drone attacks, mass FPV drone attacks on urban areas like Dobropillya, and KABs on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk borders. Expect further waves of diversified aerial attacks, primarily drones and missiles, targeting deep areas of Ukraine, potentially leveraging Belarusian airspace for Shahed overflights. RUF will sustain efforts to counter UAF cross-border UAVs and intensify their information campaigns, leveraging incidents for maximum propaganda effect. RUF internal security services will continue to target alleged Ukrainian "saboteurs" and perceived internal dissenters. RUF will continue to build diplomatic relations outside of the Western bloc, while observing US trade and sanction policies. Continued fighting in Kamenske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Russia executes a coordinated, multi-pronged assault, combining the Kharkiv push with a significant increase in offensive tempo towards Chasiv Yar, aiming to achieve an operational-level breakthrough in the Donbas while Ukrainian command and control is focused on the new northern threat. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF: Demonstrated a significantly increased scale and depth of aerial attacks, as evidenced by the mass attack on Lutsk (4 Kinzhals). New observation of anti-drone nets on ambulances and improvised anti-FPV drone armor on vehicles. RUF observed using FPV drones against UAF vehicles. Increased focus on internal security operations. RUF sources highlighting that over 800 tanks have been equipped with Kontakt-1 ERA. RUF sources are requesting aerial relays for their strike drones. RUF forces on the Zaporizhzhia front have received Starlink terminals. MoD Russia video confirming effective kamikaze drone strikes. The "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv indicates RUF is adapting its drone strike patterns. RUF claims of UAF mining bodies of comrades is a tactical adaptation of information warfare. The new "monster tank" propaganda. The video showing a wounded soldier being evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar indicates a tactical adaptation for casualty evacuation. Rostec's fiber optic drone detection system is a new tactical adaptation for counter-UAV operations. Alex Parker Returns' propaganda video of a Ukrainian funeral indicates RUF is adapting its information warfare tactics to focus on dehumanizing the enemy. The confirmed use of Belarusian territory for Shahed overflights is a significant tactical adaptation to potentially bypass or complicate Ukrainian air defense. Rruf's implied warning of continuous nocturnal attacks suggests an adaptation to high-tempo, persistent aerial pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Sustained very high volume of cross-border UAV attacks. Effective air defense responses against record-setting RUF air assaults (741 targets neutralized). Confirmed use and scaling of "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups. Continued tactical flexibility in counterattacks and effective FPV drone operations (destroying a Strela-10 SAM). Official confirmation of US arms supply resumption provides critical tactical and strategic stability. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade's use of ground robotic platforms indicates significant tactical innovation. UAF SSOs have successfully neutralized a Russian "Zemledelie" remote mining system. UAF 44th Separate Artillery Brigade is conducting effective counter-battery fire in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF General Staff focusing on drone system development is a significant adaptation. Syrsky stated that units from SBS and "Drone Line" struck every third target in June, highlighting a significant tactical adaptation towards drone-centric operations. Successful airstrikes by Operatyvnyi ZSU on RUF positions. Ukrainian civilian groups continue to engage in public displays of mourning and defiance, a psychological and information adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF: The record-setting number of drones (728) suggests sustained production or significant resupply of UAVs. Widespread aerial strikes suggest continued production or resupply of drones and missiles. Active fundraising for specific items (drones, thermal imagers, Starlink terminals) suggests a potential gap or high demand. Loss of 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems represents a significant logistical loss. The equipping of over 800 tanks with Kontakt-1 ERA indicates a push for better survivability. The call for aerial relays for strike drones highlights a current technological limitation. The video showing body bags being transported on a rusty trailer suggests severe logistical deficiencies in handling deceased personnel. The opening of rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted war participants highlights a new and growing medical/logistical burden. The implied warning of continuous attacks suggests a high confidence in sustained logistical support for drone/missile attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on drone supply), LOW (on casualty evacuation logistics).
UAF: Continued sustained operations imply ongoing logistical support. Official confirmation of US weapon supplies resuming is a critical positive development. Continued fundraising indicates ongoing equipment needs. UAF reports on striking Russian Shahed production facilities indicates a strategy to impact RUF logistics. The "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report details UAF personnel being transported in highly vulnerable vehicles, indicating significant logistical and vehicle shortages. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, if confirmed, would significantly bolster UAF long-term air defense sustainment. Ukraine requires over $40 billion in external financing for 2026 according to PM Shmyhal. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on US aid confirmation), LOW (on protected personnel transport at the tactical edge).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Maintains effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes, including orchestrating a record-setting drone and missile attack. Ground C2 appears robust enough to repel UAF counterattacks and maintain pressure on various axes. Rapid adoption of anti-drone nets and improvised anti-FPV drone armor suggests effective tactical adaptation. Appeals for donations by soldiers directly to the public suggests some C2 limitations in meeting all unit-level equipment needs, though not widespread failure. Inadequate casualty evacuation methods suggest C2 failures at the logistical and tactical levels. The detention of a National Bolshevik in Moscow suggests continued C2 over internal security matters, even for minor acts of defiance. The confirmed use of Belarusian territory for Shahed overflights indicates strategic C2 coordination with Belarus. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (strategic/operational), MEDIUM (tactical logistics C2 regarding casualty handling).
UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, conducting cross-border drone operations, and managing ground engagements, including successful capture of RUF personnel and FPV drone strikes. C2 for strategic messaging remains functional. Successful SBU operation against Chinese spies demonstrates effective counter-intelligence C2. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade's successful UGV operation showcases effective tactical C2. The "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report details C2 deficiencies in logistics at the tactical edge. UAF General Staff's high-level focus on drone system development indicates effective C2. Syrsky's statement highlights effective C2 in integrating new technologies. The ongoing high-level diplomatic engagements (Zelenskyy's meetings in Rome) demonstrate effective strategic C2 and external coordination. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (strategic/operational level), MEDIUM (tactical logistics C2).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a layered defensive posture with active front-line engagements and a robust nationwide air defense network. Proactive offensive actions in the information domain and through cross-border UAV strikes, and a confirmed strategy to target RUF military-industrial facilities (Alabuga). Counter-intelligence operations are actively protecting critical military technology. UAF is also developing and employing ground robotic platforms. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and effective air defense responses to mass RUF aerial attacks (741 targets neutralized). Units engaged in ground combat maintain operational tempo. Official confirmation of US aid resumption significantly boosts long-term readiness. The message from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) about lack of secure transport for personnel highlights a critical, localized readiness issue regarding troop movement and protection. UAF 44th OABr's effective counter-battery fire and SSO UA_REG TEAM's neutralization of the "Zemledelie" system underscore high tactical readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (overall), MEDIUM (localized readiness in some units, particularly regarding personnel transport safety).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- RECORD-SETTING Air Defense Performance: Successful interception of 741 RUF aerial targets (728 drones, 13 missiles) including over 300 Shaheds.
- Official Resumption of US Weapon Supplies: Critical positive development. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases.
- Sustained high volume of cross-border UAF drone attacks into Russia (e.g., Kursk substation fire, Belgorod drone shootdown).
- Successful FPV drone strike by "Wormbusters" destroying an RUF Strela-10 SAM.
- Destruction of 100 Russian TOS-1A/TOS-2 Heavy Flamethrower Systems.
- Destruction of 15 Russian Artillery Pieces.
- Successful Counter-Espionage Operation: SBU detained Chinese citizens attempting to steal "Neptune" missile technology.
- UAF 3rd Assault Brigade's successful use of ground robots (UGVs).
- Neutralization of Russian "Zemledelie" Remote Mining System.
- Operatyvnyi ZSU reports successful airstrike resulting in "burial of Putin's assault troops."
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Setbacks:
- Massive RUF aerial attack on Lutsk (4 Kinzhals), Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, resulting in significant damage and casualties (Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Sumy power outage, Konstantinovka). Calls for electricity conservation.
- Civilian Fatality (Child) in Kherson Oblast by drone. 5-year-old child killed in Kursk by UAV. Mass FPV-drone attack on Dobropillya with wounded. Three killed and one wounded in Konstantinovka from airstrike/FPV drones. Woman injured by drone debris near Belgorod.
- RUF claims of pushing UAF from Kupyansk, repelling UAF counterattacks in Toretsk, and liberating Tolsoty. Операция Z claims Russian Army took Zelena Dolyna and advanced on a wide front. RUF claims advances in Kamenske, Zaporizhzhia.
- Reported unit-level shortages of artillery and ammunition by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source).
- "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report detailing UAF personnel being transported in highly vulnerable vehicles, leading to high attrition.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT due to the unprecedented intensity and scale of RUF aerial attacks. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases will address this long-term, but immediate need persists. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ISR/Night Vision/EW Resistant Drones: Continued need for thermal imagers, advanced optics, and drones with enhanced resistance to electronic warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Artillery Ammunition (Unit Level): Critical, localized need for artillery shells. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Protected Personnel Transport & Casualty Evacuation: Severe and immediate requirement for protected, secure transport for front-line personnel movement and for adequate, humane casualty evacuation and handling resources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
External Military Aid: Official resumption of US arms supplies and EU fund discussion are positive, but rapid delivery and sustained commitment are crucial. Slovakia's and Estonia's continued blocking of EU sanctions highlights potential constraints. Ukraine's Prime Minister estimates over $40 billion in external financing required for 2026. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: Continue to broadcast claims of successful RUF air defense, attributing cross-border attacks to UAF (Kursk child fatality, alleged UAF mined bodies). Promoting narratives of internal UAF issues (mobilization, corruption, POW torture claims). Reporting on "liquidated saboteurs" to portray effective internal security. Leveraging diplomatic statements (Trump). Amplifying Western media reports about their drone production to project overwhelming power. New messaging from Alex Parker Returns (video of Ukrainian funeral) attempts to dehumanize Ukrainians and their grief, labeling funerals as a "carnival." RUF graphic (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) on strikes aims to project strength. TASS commentary on Germany's "choice for war" is designed to sow discord. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" photo messages are part of a structured narrative. RUF sources leveraging Trump's proposed tariffs on Brazil and Russian energy to portray US aggression. TASS reporting on a Ukrainian MP seeking Lukashenko's and Kellogg's help for "political prisoners" is a clear attempt to sow internal discord in Ukraine and portray its government as oppressive. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: Highlighting official resumption of US military aid and successful neutralization of 741 RUF aerial targets. Publicly condemning RUF's indiscriminate drone attacks and civilian casualties (Kherson child fatality, Kursk child fatality, Dobropillya, Konstantinovka). Emphasizing attrition of RUF officer corps. Actively countering RUF disinformation about "banned" anti-personnel mines, alleged mass desertions, etc. Leveraging Zelenskyy's diplomatic engagements. Zelenskyy's continued high-level diplomatic engagements (additional meetings in Rome) are being used to counter RUF narratives of isolation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: Record-setting large-scale aerial attacks and civilian casualties will significantly impact morale and create anxiety. Resumption of US military aid and successful neutralization of 741 RUF targets will provide a morale boost. Calls for electricity conservation will impact daily life. Growing public tension and resistance to mobilization efforts (Kyiv incident of driver biting police officer). Inadequate casualty handling could impact troop morale. STERNENKO's report of "massive attack" highlights current anxiety. Public displays of mourning and support at funerals (as depicted in Alex Parker Returns video) reflect ongoing resilience and grief. Andriy Kovalenko's report of Belarusian territory being used for Shahed launches may increase public anxiety regarding the northern border. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: State-controlled media will reinforce narratives of successful defense and effective prosecution of the "special military operation," leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach strike. The death of the 5-year-old child in Kursk will be heavily used to rally public support against Ukraine. Internal security crackdowns contribute to a climate of fear. Ongoing Telegram outages in Russia could impact morale and access to information, although TASS reports partial restoration of translation functions. The detention of a Russian basketball player on hacking charges, while not directly military, may be used to reinforce narratives of a Western "war" against Russia. The implied threat of continuous nocturnal strikes from НгП раZVедка aims to instill fear in Ukrainian civilians, but may also reinforce Russian public perception of a relentless military effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Support for Ukraine: The US Department of State has officially stated the resumption of weapon supplies to Ukraine. Bloomberg reports the EU is considering a 100 billion Euro fund. President Zelenskyy's visits to Rome (Pope Francis, Mattarella, Kellogg) indicate continued high-level diplomatic engagement. ECHR ruling against Russia on human rights and MH17. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, indicating strong long-term support. Speaker Johnson's statement on "tough sanctions" against Russia indicates continued US political support, though with a nuance of presidential control (per Politico/Оперативний ЗСУ). Zelenskyy's additional meetings with American representatives in Rome confirm continued direct engagement with US officials. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diplomatic Engagements: RUF continues to seek and strengthen diplomatic and economic ties with non-Western countries (Oman visa waiver, Kazakhstan defense talks). Slovakia and Estonia continue blocking EU sanctions. Hungarian PM Orbán's statements highlighting EU divisions. Trump's announced tariffs on Moldova and Brazil. TASS reports Mikhail Bogdanov's resignation. Colonelcassad reports China's MO confirmed readiness to supply J-10C aircraft to "friendly countries." Iranian withdrawal from IAEA cooperation has significant diplomatic implications and may free up Iran to cooperate further with Russia. TASS reporting on Germany's "choice for war" is aimed at the international audience. RUF sources' reporting on US tariffs against Brazil and proposed tariffs on Russian energy indicate a focus on undermining Western alliances. The detention of a Russian basketball player in France facing US extradition highlights ongoing international legal and diplomatic tensions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk, Tolsoty, Siversk) and localized pressure in Kupyansk/Kharkiv Oblast via shelling, FPV drones (including mass FPV drone attacks on urban areas like Dobropillya), and KABs. Offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction (Lyptsi, Vovchansk) will continue, with attempts to consolidate gains. RUF will likely consolidate claimed advances in Zelena Dolyna and surrounding areas, and continue pressure on Kamenske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency and Volume of Aerial Strikes with High-Value Munitions & Indiscriminate Use: RUF will likely maintain a high frequency and volume of combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets (military airfields, logistics, energy, population centers), using high-value munitions like Kinzhals. Expect continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv signals RUF's intent to diversify drone strike patterns. UAV activity in Chernihiv/Sumy Oblast and new air raid alerts for Kyiv indicate continued northern strike/reconnaissance. Potential for ballistic strikes from Voronezh Oblast and continued widespread strikes as indicated by RUF channels, explicitly warned by НгП раZVедка as continuous nocturnal attacks. The confirmed use of Belarusian territory for Shahed launches indicates a new, persistent threat vector for northern and central Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations (Kursk child fatality, POW torture claims, alleged UAF mined bodies, derision of Ukrainian funerals) to highlight UAF setbacks and demoralize Ukrainian society. Expect continued focus on alleged internal Ukrainian issues and "successful" counter-terrorism/sabotage operations within Russia, leading to more stringent information control measures. The continued Telegram outages and detention of minor dissenters indicate a tightening of internal information control. Expect RUF to frame international legal actions (like the French detention of the Russian basketball player) as Western aggression. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to seek and strengthen diplomatic and economic ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity. Expect continued efforts to exert economic pressure and exploit regional political instability. RUF intent to acquire advanced aircraft from China will influence future air capabilities. Iranian withdrawal from IAEA may lead to increased military-technical cooperation. RUF will continue to highlight and exploit US trade wars and proposed sanctions on its energy sector to bolster anti-Western narratives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone Enhancement/Counter-UAV Tech: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness (e.g., aerial relays) and developing new counter-UAV capabilities (fiber optic detection). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Inadequate Casualty Handling: RUF will likely continue to exhibit inadequate and inhumane casualty evacuation and handling procedures. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. The confirmed use of Belarusian territory for Shahed overflights could be a precursor to a more significant ground operation from Belarus/northern vectors, aiming to draw UAF reserves away from the primary Donbas axes. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, or Southern Donetsk, Kamenske), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-12 hours): Continued high-intensity air defense engagements across Ukraine, particularly near Chuhuiv/Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to new KAB launches, and in Chernihiv Oblast (Shaheds towards Chernihiv), and Sumy Oblast (UAVs moving west/southwest). New air raid alerts for Kyiv and surrounding oblasts due to Shahed threat, and potential ballistic strikes from Voronezh Oblast. UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving US aid situation and the Kursk child fatality, alleged mined bodies, and POW torture claims. Immediate response to airstrike on Konstantinovka to assess damage and provide aid. Immediate BDA for the fire at the substation near Veliky Novgorod to confirm UAF strike effectiveness. Assess impact of explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Monitor for further RUF aerial attacks from Belarusian territory.
SHORT-TERM (12-72 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas, with potential for further advances in Siversk and Krasnolimanskoye, and continued pressure near Pokrovsk, particularly around Konstantinovka and Kamenske. Continued offensive operations around Lyptsi and Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. Continued UAF cross-border drone activity. Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions. RUF will likely consolidate gains in Dobropillya and potentially expand FPV drone attacks on other urban civilian areas. Assessment of implications of Iran's IAEA withdrawal. Monitor for increased RUF activity from Belarusian territory.
MID-TERM (72 hours - 1 week): Clarity on new US and EU aid and Ukraine's 2026 financing needs. RUF will continue to adapt to UAF drone capabilities. UAF attacks on RUF drone production facilities will continue. RUF efforts to secure new partnerships could see further developments. Internal political and social dynamics in Russia could influence long-term force generation. Increased RUF focus on electromagnetic weapons suggests a mid-term threat. Impact of Trump's tariffs on Moldova and Brazil will become clearer. Potential for RUF to explore procurement of advanced aircraft from China. Continued RUF efforts to suppress internal dissent. Assessment of the long-term implications of Belarusian airspace use for RUF aerial operations.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

US/EU Military and Financial Aid Delivery Timelines & Composition:
- GAP: Precise delivery timelines and specific quantities of key US systems/munitions, and implementation timelines for proposed EU fund. Impact of Slovakia's and Estonia's blocking of sanctions/aid. Clarity on US Army's plan to quadruple Patriot missile purchases (timeline, funding, and impact on UAF deliveries) and the volume of interceptors pledged. Impact of Donald Trump's statements on Patriot costs and aid willingness, and the conditions under which he would lift sanctions/tariffs. Specifics of the $40B external financing for 2026.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT, OSINT, and IMINT to ascertain precise status and immediate/long-term impact. Clarify US official position on aid continuity and EU consensus.
RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory after Record Attack & New Strike Patterns:
- GAP: Comprehensive assessment of RUF's current production rates, remaining stockpiles, and supply chain resilience for missiles and UAVs after expending 728 drones and 13 missiles (including 4 Kinzhals). Effectiveness of UAF strikes on Alabuga. Status of RUF aerial relay development for drones. Verification of RUF claims of 1000+ drones per night by autumn. Information on Rostec's fiber optic drone detection system (capabilities, deployment). Assessment of the new "atypical morning drone attack" pattern on Mykolaiv: is it a one-off or a new targeting strategy? Full intent and implications of using Belarusian territory for Shahed overflights.
- CR: Utilize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT to track RUF defense industrial base output. Assess sustainability of high-volume attacks. Track R&D and deployment of RUF electromagnetic weapons and aerial drone relays and new counter-UAV technologies. Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT to track UAV launch sites, flight paths, and assess the role of Belarusian territory in RUF air operations.
RUF Ground Reserve Commitment and Intent (Kharkiv/Belgorod) and Tank Survivability Programs:
- GAP: Precise size, composition, and readiness of Russian grouping of forces in Belgorod. Ultimate strategic intent unclear. The true scale and effectiveness of the Kontakt-1 ERA upgrade program for RUF tanks. The operational capability of the "monster tank" and effectiveness of improvised anti-FPV drone armor. The accuracy of RUF reporting on UAF troop concentrations in Konstantinovka. The exact composition and objectives of RUF forces operating in the Kharkiv direction (Lyptsi, Vovchansk). Verification of RUF claimed advances in Zelena Dolyna and Kamenske.
- CR: Prioritize strategic ISR (satellite, long-range UAVs), SIGINT, and HUMINT to monitor force movements and logistical preparations. Debrief captured RUF personnel for unit identification and deployment. Utilize IMINT and OSINT to assess prevalence and effectiveness of ERA upgrades and improvised armor. Assess operational impact of new RUF "super-weapons."
UAF Unit-Level Ammunition/Artillery Shortages and Personnel Transport/Casualty Evacuation Vulnerabilities:
- GAP: Veracity and scope of individual unit reports regarding critical ammunition shortages. Full scope and impact of vulnerable personnel transport methods (UAZiks, Nivas, motorcycles, motorcycle sidecars) on front-line units. Detailed assessment of UAF casualty evacuation and handling procedures.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT (front-line reports, unit intelligence) and logistical SIGINT. Conduct detailed debriefs of personnel involved in exposed transport. Verify casualty evacuation protocols and resource availability.
Assessment of UAF Cross-Border Drone Strike Effectiveness and Impact & Counter-Disinformation on Mine Production/Kursk/Mined Bodies/POW Torture/Funerals/Political Prisoners:
- GAP: Clear assessment of actual impact of UAF cross-border drone operations (including Kursk, Belgorod woman injured). Effectiveness of RUF counter-UAV measures on UAF operations. Effectiveness of new RUF disinformation campaign regarding "banned" anti-personnel mines. Full extent of RUF exploitation of Kursk child fatality. Verification of RUF claims of UAF mining bodies and POW torture. Verification of UAF strike on the substation near Veliky Novgorod. Effectiveness of RUF propaganda attempting to dehumanize Ukrainian funerals. Verification and counter-narrative development for Russian claims of a Ukrainian MP requesting help for "political prisoners" in Ukraine.
- CR: Leverage OSINT and HUMINT to verify and assess battle damage. Assess effectiveness of RUF counter-drone measures and UAF adaptations. Monitor and analyze the spread and impact of disinformation campaigns. Prepare pre-emptive counter-narratives. Conduct forensic analysis on RUF claims. Gather intelligence on the MP's background and potential ties to Russian influence operations.
Full Exploitation of Captured Chinese Spies Intelligence:
- GAP: Extent of information obtained by Chinese spies regarding "Neptune" missile system and broader intelligence effort.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT (interrogation), SIGINT, and FORENSIC intelligence to determine full scope of compromise.
Assessment of RUF Intent and Effectiveness Regarding UAF Use of Ground Robotic Platforms:
- GAP: RUF response to demonstrated UAF UGV use and veracity of "capitulation" claims.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT (captured RUF personnel debriefs, UAF unit reports), OSINT, and IMINT to confirm tactical outcomes, psychological effects, and RUF counter-measures.
Verification of RUF Officer Losses and Personnel Status, and RUF Tactical Communications (Starlink) and Social Challenges:
- GAP: Independent verification and deeper analysis of reported 6606 RUF officer "demobilizations." Verification of Colonelcassad's claim of 230,000 UAF deserters and actual RUF personnel numbers/morale. Extent of RUF reliance on Starlink terminals. Scale and impact of drug addiction among RUF veterans.
- CR: Cross-reference OSINT data with HUMINT from captured RUF personnel. Analyze RUF command structure changes. Investigate Starlink acquisition and usage patterns. Monitor open sources for further information on social issues stemming from the war.
Detailed Analysis of Russian Internal Security Crackdowns and Their Impact:
- GAP: Full scope and purpose of recent detentions of former officials, bloggers, and actions at the Moscow Art Theater. Linkage to military operations or broader political control. Operational implications of Putin's "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" initiative. Extent of internal political maneuvering within the RUF government. Impact of Telegram outages. Reason and impact of Mikhail Bogdanov's resignation. Further details on internal security operations in Samara. Nature and scale of suppression of minor dissent (e.g., "kefir-throwing" incident). Full details and implications of the detention of Russian basketball player Daniil Kasatkin in France on hacking charges.
- CR: Utilize OSINT and HUMINT to track, verify, and analyze internal Russian security operations. Assess impact on dissent, public morale, and political stability. Monitor implementation of "Digital Profile" and its impact. Monitor Russian state media for signs of internal political shifts. Monitor and assess impact of social media outages. Investigate implications of Bogdanov's resignation. Monitor international legal proceedings related to Kasatkin's detention and analyze any implications for Russian cyber operations.
Assessment of Mykolaiv Drone Attack Pattern and Chernihiv/Poltava/Sumy UAV Activity:
- GAP: Is the "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv a new RUF targeting pattern? What is the specific intent of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast (Shaheds towards Chernihiv), Kyiv, Poltava, and Sumy (heading west/southwest)? What is the specific target of the aerial strike shown in the Operatyvnyi ZSU video for Dnipro region? What is the specific intent of the ballistic missile threat from Voronezh Oblast?
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT to monitor for repeat patterns of drone activity. Track UAV flight paths and potential targets. Monitor Voronezh Oblast for ballistic missile launch preparations. Conduct BDA for the Dnipro region strike.
Impact of Civilian Incidents in Contested Areas and Civilian Infrastructure Targeting:
- GAP: Exact cause and military relevance of incidents like the cemetery fire in Donetsk and the chaos/damage in Dobropillya. Full extent of damage and casualties from mass FPV drone attack on Dobropillya and Konstantinovka. Cause of Sumy explosion and power outages. Effectiveness of local resilience measures (solar power installations) against RUF attacks.
- CR: Utilize OSINT, IMINT, and local HUMINT to determine cause of incidents and relation to hostilities. Investigate Sumy explosion/power grid damage. Continuously monitor Ozerny Airfield for RUF targeting. Conduct detailed BDA on Dobropillya and Konstantinovka.
Analysis of Regional Geopolitical Impact (Moldova/Trump Tariffs/Iran IAEA/Brazil):
- GAP: Full implications of Trump's announced tariffs on Moldova and Brazil for regional stability, trade routes impacting Ukraine, and broader Western cohesion. What is the nature and potential impact of Iran's cessation of IAEA cooperation on its nuclear program and its implications for military-technical cooperation with Russia? Full implications of Trump's proposed 500% tariffs on Russian oil and uranium for countries that purchase them.
- CR: Monitor international economic and diplomatic reporting, track reactions from Moldova, Brazil, and the EU, and assess potential secondary effects on Ukrainian logistics or aid. Closely monitor intelligence on Iranian nuclear program and military-technical cooperation with Russia. Analyze the potential impact of new US tariffs on Russian energy exports.
Verification of RUF Counter-UAV Measures and UAF Adaptation to Computer Vision:
- GAP: Detailed analysis of RUF's ability to identify and target UAF 'Baba-Yaga' drones, drone repeaters, and drone C2 nodes. Further information on UAF's Computer Vision Engineers and their specific applications.
- CR: Analyze captured RUF drone footage and debrief captured RUF personnel for insights. Obtain further details on UAF's Computer Vision programs via HUMINT or OSINT.
Potential for Chinese Aircraft Acquisitions by RUF:
- GAP: Concrete evidence of RUF pursuing acquisition of J-10C aircraft or PL-15 missiles from China. Timeline for acquisitions and integration into RUF air capabilities.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT and SIGINT to monitor for discussions, agreements, or movements related to potential Chinese military aircraft sales to Russia.
Red Sea Maritime Threats:
- GAP: Full assessment of Houthi capabilities for anti-ship missile attacks and their potential impact on global shipping lanes relevant to Ukrainian trade.
- CR: Monitor maritime intelligence, open-source reporting from the region, and international diplomatic statements regarding Red Sea security.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

Immediate Air Defense Munition Resupply and Optimization: Prioritize and expedite resupply of air defense munitions, especially for Patriot systems. Implement dynamic allocation strategy, with particular attention to areas under consistent high-speed target alerts (e.g., Chuhuiv/Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk) and critical civilian centers, and the newly identified border region of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts for KAB launches, and Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast. Expedite delivery of mobile air defense systems. Investigate potential for US Patriot procurement plans to fast-track deliveries to Ukraine. Maintain vigilance for UAVs in northern oblasts, including Chernihiv and Sumy, and adjust air defense posture accordingly. Prepare for potential ballistic strikes from Voronezh Oblast. Develop immediate countermeasures and adaptive air defense strategies for Shahed drones transiting Belarusian airspace.
- Action: Coordinate with international partners for emergency air defense munition deliveries. Adjust engagement parameters. Scale up domestic production and "drone-interceptor" programs. Maintain readiness for northern UAV threats and reinforce Chernihiv/Kyiv air defense. Implement intelligence-led countermeasures for Belarusian-origin drone threats.
- POC: Air Force Command, Logistics Command, G3/5.
Reinforce Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kamenske/Southern Donetsk/Siversk/Krasnolimanskoye with Anti-Armor and Counter-Assault Capabilities, and Address Ammunition and Personnel Transport Shortages: Prioritize immediate allocation of ATGMs, MANPADS, and FPV drones to units defending these critical sectors, especially given the reported concentration of UAF troops in Konstantinovka. Expedite delivery of artillery and mortar rounds. Implement urgent measures to provide protected and secure personnel transport for front-line rotations. Continue and enhance counter-battery operations in active sectors like Zaporizhzhia. Immediately investigate and rectify the inadequate casualty evacuation and handling procedures. Reinforce Kharkiv front defenses (Lyptsi, Vovchansk) and prepare counter-measures against special forces operations. Reinforce defenses in the Lyman direction and against RUF advances in Kamenske.
- Action: Conduct urgent resupply of ATGM and FPV drone munitions. Reinforce with specialized anti-armor teams. Implement anti-UAV measures along supply routes. Investigate and rectify ammunition and secure transport shortfalls. Scale up UGV deployment and fiber optic drone integration. Develop and deploy robust counter-drone measures for personnel transport routes. Continue to prioritize ammunition for counter-battery fire. Allocate specialized vehicles and equipment for casualty evacuation and handling, and reinforce relevant training.
- POC: Ground Forces Command, Logistics Command, G2, Medical Command.
Execute Pre-emptive Deep Strikes on Belgorod Concentrated Forces and RUF Military-Industrial Complex, and Counter Emerging EW/Counter-UAV Threats: Execute targeted strikes against Russian artillery positions, C2 nodes, and troop concentrations in Belgorod Oblast. Simultaneously, continue and expand targeting of RUF military-industrial complex facilities (Shahed drone production, advanced systems). Utilize available air assets for precision strikes. Prioritize targeting of RUF mobile EW systems and any aerial relay platforms for drones. Actively track and counter RUF's developing fiber optic drone detection systems. Maintain vigilance and counter RUF tactical aviation activity in the southeast. Continue to target RUF logistical infrastructure. Target RUF FPV drone launch sites and C2 nodes, particularly those engaged in mass urban attacks like in Dobropillya, and in Konstantinovka. Target RUF drone C2 nodes in Zaporizhzhia and artillery in Kherson. Prioritize targeting of the substation near Veliky Novgorod.
- Action: Authorize and plan long-range strike missions. Prioritize targets identified by ISR. Identify and target further vulnerabilities in RUF drone supply chains and advanced weapons development. Develop and deploy systems to counter RUF EW capabilities and new counter-UAV technologies. Monitor and interdict RUF tactical aviation sorties.
- POC: General Staff, Operational Commands, Air Force Command.
Proactively Manage Public and International Messaging on US/EU Aid and Air Defense Successes, and Counter RUF Disinformation: Develop clear, consistent, and proactive messaging regarding official resumption of US military aid and potential EU fund. Critically, highlight the successful neutralization of 741 RUF aerial targets. Publicly condemn RUF's indiscriminate drone attacks, particularly the civilian fatalities and injuries (Pechenihy, Kherson child, Kursk child, Dobropillya, Konstantinovka, Belgorod injured woman). Counter Russian disinformation campaigns with verified facts, specifically addressing false narratives about Ukraine producing "banned" anti-personnel mines, UAF "draft dodging," alleged mass desertions, and unit morale, and highlighting civil-military cohesion. Emphasize attrition of RUF officer corps. Actively counter RUF narratives attempting to sow discord by highlighting internal issues and false claims of UAF mining bodies or POW torture, and new narratives dehumanizing Ukrainian funerals. Address concerns about personnel safety and transport and the dignified handling of casualties. Leverage diplomatic engagements to underscore international support. Actively promote positive developments like Mol's interest in Odesa port. Actively counter RUF propaganda regarding overwhelming future drone capabilities. Provide nuanced explanations for air defense outcomes. Promote local energy resilience efforts. Publicize efforts to support military families. Highlight UAF advancements in AI/ML for drone applications. Actively debunk RUF claims of high Ukrainian casualties. Counter RUF narratives that Putin believes Ukraine's defense will collapse, and RUF attempts to undermine Ukrainian military leadership. Address Donald Trump's statements on Patriot costs and his trade/sanction proposals, highlighting any inconsistencies or negative impacts on Russia. Prepare specific counter-narratives regarding Russian claims of a Ukrainian MP seeking assistance from Lukashenko and Kellogg for "political prisoners" in Ukraine, framing it as an information operation.
- Action: Conduct press briefings and public statements. Immediately refute false RUF claims. Develop rapid response team for disinformation. Ensure public awareness of veteran support and POW rehabilitation efforts. Implement clear public messaging on energy conservation. Engage international partners to amplify counter-disinformation efforts. Proactively address issues of casualty handling.
- POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense.
Strengthen Counter-Espionage and Critical Technology Protection: Following the successful SBU operation, immediately conduct a comprehensive review of security protocols for all critical military technologies, particularly missile systems like "Neptune." Increase vigilance against foreign intelligence collection efforts.
- Action: Implement enhanced security measures around military research and production facilities. Conduct thorough background checks. Collaborate with international partners.
- POC: Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Ministry of Defense, Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU), Prosecutor General's Office.
Investigate and Address Customs Irregularities and Internal Tensions: Conduct a thorough investigation into the ongoing large-scale searches at customs. Identify any systemic issues leading to corruption or security breaches at border crossings. Simultaneously, proactively address any rising internal tensions related to mobilization (e.g., reported incidents like the driver biting a police officer) through clear communication, legal guidance, and ensuring accountability to maintain public trust and morale. Monitor and address internal Russian dissent, even minor acts of defiance, to understand overall stability and potential for internal disruption.
- Action: Provide full support to SBU and OPG investigations. Implement immediate reforms at affected customs points. Develop public awareness campaigns to clarify mobilization laws and rights. Establish clear channels for addressing grievances related to military registration.
- POC: SBU, Office of the Prosecutor General (OPG), Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Interior, General Staff.
Assess Iranian Diplomatic Shift and Potential Military Implications: Conduct a rapid assessment of the full implications of Iran's withdrawal from IAEA cooperation for its nuclear program and its potential to enhance military-technical cooperation with Russia.
- Action: Direct intelligence collection on Iranian nuclear and military programs. Engage international partners to understand shared intelligence on this development.
- POC: Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

END OF REPORT

Situation Report