Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 091726Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk): RUF continues pressure. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports RUF shelling of Pechenihy community, resulting in one casualty. This aligns with previous intelligence indicating RUF's continued intent to degrade infrastructure and exert pressure in the region. A captured RUF soldier, previously of the 66th Brigade and 143rd Brigade, reports being taken from the Kharkiv direction, reinforcing ongoing RUF presence and potential for further operations. Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, reports on shelling of populated areas, including villages and farms, and mentions casualties and damage to agricultural equipment, confirming active RUF engagement. TASS reports RUF FPV-drone from "North" group destroyed a UAF vehicle in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast from the north. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo message titled "🪖 Харьковское направление" which shows a tactical map of the Kharkiv direction, specifically highlighting contested areas around Lyptsi and Vovchansk, and lines of advance for RUF forces. This indicates continued RUF focus on offensive operations in this area, aligning with previous MDCOA. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk): RUF claims a UAF counterattack with tanks and motorcycles near Bilaya Gora-Dyleyevka was repelled. TASS reports RUF command claims UAF is sustaining positions at "height near Petrovsky in LNR." A new captured RUF soldier from 163rd Tank Regiment taken by UAF 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade near Poltavka provides insights into RUF unit movements. RUF source confirms ongoing fighting at Petrovsky (LNR). New reports from UAF General Staff confirm clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Yablunivka, Rusyne Yaru and towards Katerynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UAF drone and artillery hunting "mangal"-armored RUF tanks on the Toretsk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kramatorsk): RUF continues pressure on Chasiv Yar with possible incremental gains on eastern outskirts. RUF video shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying a UAF vehicle attempting personnel rotation near Karl Marx. UAF unit WORMBUSTERS 414th UAV Brigade conducted a successful drone strike on an RUF military vehicle on Pokrovsk direction. UAF 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade FPV drone operators actively engaging RUF. Colonelcassad reports aerial battles over Chasiv Yar, with RUF drones destroying UAF UAVs. RUF source Colonelcassad reports soldiers requesting assistance for drone operations in Pokrovskoye direction. TASS claims RUF FPV-drone units destroyed a UAF pickup truck in Konstantinovka. RUF source "Два майора" fundraising for assault troops on Konstantinovka direction. UAF sources report an abandoned and disabled Russian armored vehicle ("Frankenstein") near Konstantinovka. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade using ground robots (UGVs) in offensive operations near Chasiv Yar. New reports from UAF General Staff confirm clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Myrne, Malynivka, Myrolubivka, Razine, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Promin, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Oleksiyivka, Zelenyy Kut, Horikhove and towards Pokrovsk, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske and Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk direction). Also clashes near Stupochky and Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction). Russian sources are reporting "Fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Brave ones' endlessly burn tanks and NATO equipment, enemy infantry and artillery" accompanied by drone footage showing vehicles being engaged, including what appears to be a pickup and a smaller passenger car, with red targeting markers and explosions. TASS reports that an RUF expert, Yan Gagin, stated that an "incendiary bag" in Konstantinovka would weaken the UAF in DNR by depriving them of soldiers. This indicates a continued RUF focus on isolating and attriting UAF forces in this area. Poddubny reports a large concentration of Ukrainian troops, between 8,000 and 15,000 personnel, in Konstantinovka and its suburbs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): Kotsnews reports RUF advances on Siversk direction. This indicates continued RUF attempts to expand their operational control in this sector. RUF source "Два майора" is posting about a "virtual 'storming of Siversk'," which may be a preemptive attempt to manage expectations or a narrative for an upcoming offensive. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Donetsk Oblast (Krasnoarmeysk/Kamyševaha/Tolsoty): RUF source video shows a Russian artillery crew operating a 2A65 'Msta-B' towed howitzer. Poddubny claims 144th Motor Rifle Division advancing. Poddubny claims destruction of a UAF T-64 tank near Kamyševaha by RUF strike UAV. RUF claims of liberating Tolsoty are confirmed by multiple RUF sources and video, indicating offensive operations in Southern Donetsk (Novopavlovsk direction). WarGonzo explicitly claims RUF has "liberated Tolsoty in DNR" via a map post. Colonelcassad video indicates fighting in Southern Donetsk direction with pressure on logistics. New RUF video footage from "Военкор Котенок" shows drone reconnaissance and subsequent strikes on Ukrainian positions during the "liberation" of Tolsoty. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. New RUF video from "Народная милиция ДНР" depicts drone footage of damaged buildings and explosions hitting structures in the area of Yablunivka, confirming ongoing engagements and RUF targeting of UAF positions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF Air Force reports repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (Dobropillya): A video by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" depicts a chaotic scene on a street, with people running, smoke/haze in the sky, and a building with 'GREEN WOOD COFFEE' signage visible. A person in military-style camouflage interacts with civilians. This suggests an incident, possibly an explosion or attack, has occurred in a civilian area. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russian FPV-drones have for the first time massively attacked Dobropillya. Videos confirm multiple civilian vehicles engulfed in flames and thick black smoke. Other footage shows smoke plumes over a cityscape and a chaotic street scene with civilians and military personnel present. This is a significant escalation of RUF FPV drone targeting to urban, civilian areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three civilians injured in Polohivskyi District, and a woman wounded in Stepnohirska community. RUF sources report activity on Zaporizhzhia direction, with fundraising for drones and thermal imagers. RUF aerial video shows aftermath of attack on structure. RUF "WarGonzo" posts video showing Russian VDV forces engaging UAF near Kamenske. UAF Southern Defense Forces report successful drone strikes on RUF artillery pieces. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAV on north Zaporizhzhia Oblast and a high-speed target. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration reports over 2,700 residents received aid for damaged housing. New report from UAF General Staff states RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in the area of Kryvyi Rih and south Dnipropetrovsk region. New video from UAF 241st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Vyriy" RUBpAK (drone unit) shows FPV drone operations on the southeastern outskirts of Kamenske. A new RUF video from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms fundraising for DJI Mavic 3 Pro drones for paratroopers in the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating ongoing RUF operational needs and presence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration reports air raid alert ended. UAF reconstruction efforts observed in Zaporizhzhia, refurbishing a medical facility, demonstrating ongoing civilian resilience. RUF source "Два майора" posts a video titled "Zaporizhzhia front" showing Russian soldiers with Starlink terminals, stating they received three Starlink terminals and two cameras. This indicates a sustained logistical and communications effort by RUF in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF 44th Separate Artillery Brigade (44 OABr) is conducting effective counter-battery fire in the Zaporizhzhia direction. WarGonzo reports a burned UAF pickup truck on the Zaporizhzhia front, containing a deceased UAF soldier. This indicates effective RUF strikes in the sector. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration reports Air Raid Alert ended. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has posted a video showing the installation of solar power stations on educational facilities. This highlights efforts to enhance energy independence, likely in response to previous RUF strikes on energy infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. MoD Russia video shows "Artillery of Vostok Group of Forces engages UAV command posts of enemy in Zaporozhye direction" with aerial footage of explosions, indicating continued RUF targeting of UAF drone infrastructure in the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo posts a video titled "Paratroopers break into AFU strongholds in Zaporozhye," showing aerial footage of a damaged building, suggesting continued RUF offensive pressure and targeting of UAF fortified positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: A private house in Khmelnytskyi district damaged from an overnight RUF aerial attack. New reports from "Оперативний ЗСУ" confirm a 65-year-old man died from falling debris of a downed UAV in Khmelnytskyi district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Volyn Oblast (Lutsk): Regional military administration reports approximately 50 RUF UAVs and 5 missiles in Volyn airspace overnight, with Lutsk being the main target. Mayor confirms 4 Kinzhals and 1 cruise missile hit Lutsk. Photos confirm significant damage. RUF MoD claims a successful group strike by long-range high-precision air-based weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, against military airfield infrastructure, stating all assigned targets were engaged. New video from Colonelcassad titled "Incendiary Night in Lutsk" shows multiple bright flashes and explosions over the city. Alex Parker Returns also posts a video showing large fires in Lutsk, reinforcing the scale of the attack. New RUF video from "Военкор Котенок" shows "attempt of Bandera's air defense to repel night raid of 'Geraniums' on Lutsk," suggesting RUF intent to demoralize or mock UAF air defense capabilities while confirming their strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine has released a video featuring an expert explaining why Kinzhal missiles were not shot down over Lutsk, attributing it to the volume of missiles and limited air defense systems rather than system ineffectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian air defenders successfully destroyed 17 RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KABs (glide bombs) on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force video shows combat operations in the Central Air Command zone. UAF Air Force reports high-speed targets from Donetsk Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, later reporting an all-clear. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetropis Oblasts. Serhiy Lysak, head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, reports that three districts of the oblast were attacked by Russian troops during the day, accompanied by photo messages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Serhiy Lysak also posts photo messages regarding a new draft law on deferring the development of comprehensive community plans, which is a civilian administrative matter. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kyiv Oblast (Trebukhiv/Brovary/VDNH): "РБК-Україна" reports a large fire in Trebukhiv, Kyiv Oblast, and a woman injured in Brovary. Video shows DSNS battling large fire. RBU-Ukraine reports a fire at VDNH in Kyiv, with a large dinosaur exhibit burning, described as a "huge dinosaur caught fire." This is not militarily significant. KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) posts photos of meetings with volunteers and NGOs to liquidate consequences of enemy strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports a new air raid alert for Kyiv and several oblasts due to a UAV threat. RBC-Ukraine confirms Kyiv Oblast is "red" due to "Shahed" threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: "РБК-Україна" reports fires in Zhytomyr Oblast. Photos confirm damage to production premises of a carpentry workshop. Colonelcassad reports that for a long time, UAF has been accumulating foreign equipment, delivered by IL-76 and Hercules transport aircraft, at Ozernyy Airfield in Zhytomyr Oblast, which served as the main base for UAF military transport aviation. This suggests RUF is likely monitoring this location as a high-value target. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an RUF reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast, with assets engaged for its destruction. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports ballistic missile strike on Baratovka and Tuzly. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target on south Odesa Oblast, which may impact Mykolaiv or Odesa. "РБК-Україна" reports an emergency power outage in Mykolaiv. New report from UAF General Staff states RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka and Lvove of Kherson region (implying Mykolaiv/Kherson region). UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in the area of south Mykolaiv region. "РБК-Україна" reports Mykolaiv experienced an atypical morning drone attack for the first time in the war. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kherson Oblast: RBU-Ukraine reports an RUF drone killed a one-year-old child in Kherson Oblast. This is a critical development underscoring RUF's indiscriminate use of drones. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights corroborates the report of the one-year-old child killed by an RUF drone in Kherson Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault. New report from "Сили оборони Півдня України" (UAF Southern Defense Forces) reiterates the child fatality, explicitly calling it "genocide" against Ukrainians, indicating the severe impact on public and military morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports activity in Kherson Oblast, implying continued RUF presence and operations in the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians once again shelled the train station in Kherson, providing a photo of a damaged building with broken windows. This indicates continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory (Bryansk/Moscow Oblasts): RUF Ministry of Defense claims 86 UAF aircraft-type UAVs were shot down. Moscow-based sources report explosions from "unknown drones" in Moscow Oblast, including Zelenograd. Video shows flashes/smoke reinforcing UAF cross-border activity. Colonelcassad reports 86 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs destroyed and intercepted overnight by PVO. Alex Parker Returns also posts images indicating ongoing internal security operations in Moscow, with operatives attempting to detain "natsbol" Mikhail via Telegram, reinforcing a pattern of internal crackdowns on perceived dissent. "Новости Москвы" posts a video of a blue Porsche sports car with advertising in Moscow. This is a civilian event and not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory (Kursk Oblast): ASTRA reports RUF PVO shot down a UAV over a beach in Kursk, resulting in 3 killed, 7 injured. Khinshtein claims targeted strike by UAF. TASS specifically quotes Khinshtein about a 5-year-old child protecting his mother. Sever.Realii reports 3 dead, 7 injured. RUF MoD states EOD specialists are demining settlements. TASS reports a 5-year-old boy injured transferred to Moscow. ASTRA confirms 3 dead, 7 injured with photos. Colonelcassad provides video footage of the Kursk beach attack site. UAF General Staff reports repelling 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. TASS reports Khinshtein states the 5-year-old boy injured in the Kursk beach attack has died. Kotsnews and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also confirm the child's death. WarGonzo reports the child died during transport to Moscow. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message from Kursk Oblast, likely related to the beach attack aftermath. STERNENKO reports a "number of death roads have appeared in Kursk Oblast thanks to the professional work of Novem Group special unit Ballista," accompanied by drone video of a convoy being struck. Arkhangel Spetsnaza has confirmed the death of the five-year-old boy "Tolya" who was injured during the drone attack on a beach in Kursk. "Басурин о главном" posts a video from a hospital setting, attributing the death of a child named Tolya to a Ukrainian attack on a Kursk beach, explicitly stating "This was our only heir." This is a highly emotional propaganda piece. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory (Belgorod Oblast/Shebekino): ASTRA reports first ambulances in Shebekino with anti-drone nets. BUUTSOV PLUS provides photo evidence of ambulances fitted with anti-drone netting in Shebekino, confirming defensive adaptations. ASTRA reports one person killed and two injured in Kolotilovskiy farm, Belgorod Oblast, from IED detonation during hay clearing, possibly from UAF cross-border activity. Alex Parker Returns video shows an armored vehicle, described as equipped with "anti-FPV drone" measures, implying successful Russian counter-drone adaptations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory (Saratov Oblast/Orenburg/Udmurtia): TASS reports prevention of a "terrorist attack" in Saratov Oblast, with FSB claiming liquidation of a "saboteur" planning to blow up a railway bridge. TASS reports five Russians detained for arson on transport facilities for "honorariums" from Kyiv. Kotsnews video shows "detention of arsonists." TASS reports SK charged teenagers in Orenburg/Udmurtia with terrorism for setting fire to railway equipment. New RUF video from Colonelcassad shows the detention of two teenagers in Udmurtia and Orenburg Oblast, allegedly tasked by Ukrainian special services for arson. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Операция Z" reiterates FSB detaining teenagers for railway sabotage, connecting it to Ukrainian special services. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports the Governor of Oryol Oblast, Klychkov, refuted a fake video of him warning about UAVs hitting aircraft, indicating RUF efforts to control narrative around drone threats to airspace. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Crimea: "РБК-Україна" reports a strong explosion in occupied Crimea. RUF MoD claims two drones shot down over annexed Crimea around 13:00 MSK. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Local administration reports the situation remains controlled. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in the area of Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the city's defense council, briefed on the city's situation as of 090725. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast: RUF "WarGonzo" map shows activity in the Sumskoye direction. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAV on north Sumy Oblast, and RUF КАБы (KABs - glide bombs) on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force also reports high-speed aerial targets. UAF General Staff reports repelling 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. New reports from Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirm Border Guard Service mobile fire groups in Sumy Oblast shot down 6 Shaheds and 7 "Gerbera" drones. "Два майора" posts a video titled "Sumy Direction", indicating continued RUF focus on the area. New UAF Air Force alert confirms KABs on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RUF glide bomb use on this axis. UAF Air Force reports repeated КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports a sound of explosion in Sumy. TASS reports that mercenaries from Poland who were transferred to the Sumy direction have terminated their contracts with the UAF and abandoned their positions. This claim requires independent verification. RBC-Ukraine reports renewed power outages in Sumy and some districts of the oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that power outages in Sumy, Sumy district, and Okhtyrka district are due to enemy attack on a regional energy facility, confirmed by Sumyoblenergo. This confirms RUF targeting of energy infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (for fighting), LOW (for Polish mercenary claim).
• Lyman Direction: New reports from UAF General Staff confirm clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Ridkodub, Hryhorivka and towards Shandryholove and Seredne. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a tactical map showing active areas in Krasnolimanskoye direction, specifically highlighting areas around Yampolivka and Torske, indicating RUF intent to advance or secure positions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Pskov Oblast: Governor of Pskov Oblast bans residents from publishing information about drone strikes. Colonelcassad reports that the Governor of Pskov Oblast has introduced a ban on publishing information about drone strikes in media and on the internet. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Southern Donetsk Direction (Velyka Novosilka - Vilne Pole): RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts image with geolocation data for Velyka Novosilka - Vilne Pole, indicating continued operations. RUF source "Воин DV" provides a situation report for Southern Donetsk direction. Воин DV also posted a video showing an aerial perspective of a road intersection with vehicles and smoke plumes, indicating continued reconnaissance or surveillance of roads in the area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Воин DV" has also posted an image titled "#базальт_пишет", which appears to be a military-themed graphic, but does not provide specific tactical information. CONFIDENCE: LOW. Colonelcassad posts a textual update on the situation in the Southern Donetsk direction based on information from "voin_dv", implying continued RUF activity in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk City: Mash on Donbas reports two utility workers injured from an IED detonation at a landfill. Mash on Donbas reports a cemetery in Donetsk was set on fire, which is a civilian incident, but could be related to hostilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Occupied Territories (Ukraine): "РБК-Україна" reports a woman and three children were returned from occupied territory. ECHR recognized Russia's responsibility for human rights violations in occupied Donbas and for downing MH17. New report from DeepState confirms ECHR ruling. ASTRA provides video reinforcing the ECHR ruling on MH17. Sever.Realii also confirms ECHR ruling on MH17. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Mash on Donbas reports a strong fire in Zugres, Donbas, approaching residential houses, possibly a result of military activity or environmental factors in occupied territory. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Luhansk Oblast (Krasnodon): Mash on Donbas reports fires approaching houses near Krasnodon in LPR. This suggests potential RUF logistical issues or environmental impact in occupied territory. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Moldova (Chisinau): TASS reports protests outside a court building in Chisinau demanding the release of Yevgenia Gutsul. This is not directly militarily significant to the current conflict but highlights regional political instability potentially exploitable by RUF. TASS reports Romanian authorities have banned the entry of Chisinau Mayor Ceban at the request of Moldovan President Sandu. TASS reports Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Moldova starting August 1st. This is a significant economic and geopolitical development. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Internal Russia (Voronezh Oblast/Moscow): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports the detention of former Voronezh Oblast Deputy Governor Shvyrkova. TASS reports a blogger, Shchepikhi, was added to the list of terrorists and extremists for calls to extremism. TASS reports former Ukrainian Vice-Prime Minister Kolesnikov was also added to the list of extremists. TASS reports the entrance to Moscow Art Theater is closed with law enforcement inside, implying internal security operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports former Voronezh Oblast Deputy Governor Shvyrkov was arrested for a month on fraud charges. These events signify continued internal security crackdowns and efforts to control perceived threats. TASS reports searches at the home of MHAT Gorky director Kekhman. TASS reports MHAT director Kekhman has been delivered to the Investigative Committee. TASS video shows theatre employees leaving the building. TASS reports Gelendzhik airport is not receiving notifications about the possibility of resuming flights, contradicting earlier information. However, TASS later reports that Gelendzhik airport is planned to open soon for domestic flights. Новости Москвы and Два майора confirm Gelendzhik airport is officially resuming operations next week. TASS reports Aeroflot will resume regular flights from Moscow to Gelendzhik on July 18. Rosaviatsia states Gelendzhik airport is ready for civilian flights from July 10. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports 6 people, including a child, injured in a bus accident in Omsk, Russia. This is not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA reports a court in Vologda, Russia, ruled to demolish a Stalin monument, deeming its installation illegal. This highlights internal social and political dynamics in Russia. ASTRA reports entrepreneur Areg Shchepikhin, who was kidnapped after posting a video insulting Chechens, has been added to the list of extremists and terrorists. TASS reports the director of a municipal institution in Dagestan was detained after an infection outbreak, and searches were conducted at the Magaramkent district administration by the Investigative Committee. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports Volodin urged Reshetnikov to study procedural matters to avoid mistakes of former liberal politicians, indicating internal political maneuvering. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports the troupe of the Moscow Art Theater and chief director Galina Polishchuk are on tour in Novosibirsk and are unaware of investigative actions, suggesting the arrests are targeted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Новости Москвы" reports on the construction of a new district in Mnevnikovsky floodplain near the Moscow River. This is a civilian infrastructure development and not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns reports on the deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora of Moscow Oblast, Elshan Ibragimov, who was stripped of Russian citizenship for violating residency rules. Photos show his personal belongings. This indicates continued internal security measures and efforts to control foreign communities. "Два майора" also reports on the deportation of Elshan Ibragimov. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Internal Russia (Krasnodar Krai): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a message related to the Governor of Krasnodar Krai. Context suggests potential internal developments or official statements. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Internal Russia (Omsk): Басурин о главном posts video showing severe hailstorm hitting Omsk and the region. This is not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Internal Russia (Dagestan): TASS reports a municipal institution director detained due to infection outbreak, with searches by Investigative Committee. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports that the number of people poisoned by water in Dagestan has risen to 274, mostly children. This is a civilian health crisis, not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Unspecified Location (Convoy): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video showing a rusty trailer filled with black plastic bags (likely body bags) being pulled, followed by military trucks. This suggests combat attrition and inadequate evacuation/handling of casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also posts a video titled "Evacuation of a wounded person in a motorcycle sidecar," showing a motorcycle with a sidecar carrying an individual, likely a wounded soldier, down a narrow, unpaved path. This highlights rudimentary and potentially unsafe casualty evacuation methods. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Armenia: TASS reports an Armenian opposition MP, Artur Sargsyan, has been arrested for two months. This is not militarily significant to the current conflict but highlights regional political instability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Chernihiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on the north of Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. RBC-Ukraine also reports drones on the north of Chernihiv Oblast moving south, specifically Shaheds heading towards Chernihiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an alert for a group of "Shaheds" in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Chernihiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Lviv Oblast (Novoyavorivsk): The Coordination Staff for POWs has participated in an outreach meeting with families of defenders in Novoyavorivsk. This indicates ongoing civilian support and engagement in Western Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Unspecified Location (Donbas): Colonelcassad posts a video titled "Donbas" which appears to be drone footage from a conflict zone. It shows explosions, damaged buildings, and identifies various military targets including 'Baba-Yaga' (large FPV drone), 'Drone-repeater' (ретранслятор), M113 armored vehicle, and 'manpower' (живая сила). The presence of specific drone types, armored vehicles, and combat footage indicates active engagements and RUF intelligence gathering. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing soldiers in camouflage digging in a wooded area, with a "UKRAINE CONTEXT" overlay, suggesting preparation or reinforcement of defensive positions. The caption reads: "Here are my friends. They are digging. They are digging up the guys. They dug them up." This implies recovery of personnel, possibly casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Central Russia (Unspecified location): Kotsnews posts a photo message captioned "EVENING BELL," which is a religious reference, and not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Moscow reported its warmest night in 39 years (+19.3°C), indicating a general heatwave across the region. Moscow also reported rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds (up to 20 m/s), which may impact UAV operations in the Moscow region. No significant new weather data reported for the combat zone. RBC-Ukraine reports on an upcoming heatwave in Ukraine, with potential for temperatures up to +40 degrees Celsius. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" and "РБК-Україна" report Ukrenergo's call for Ukrainians to limit electricity consumption from 16:00 to 22:00, indicating ongoing strain on the energy grid due to RUF strikes, which affects civilian life and may impact military infrastructure power stability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine reports a House of Prayer in Shepetivka was struck by lightning and is on fire. This is a natural disaster, not militarily significant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine reports renewed power outages in Sumy and some districts of the oblast. This is likely due to RUF strikes or grid strain. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms power outages in Sumy and Okhtyrka districts due to enemy attack on a regional energy facility. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Maintaining active defense posture with localized counterattack capabilities (Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kherson). Demonstrated high volume cross-border UAV operations. Highly engaged in air defense across multiple oblasts, neutralizing 741 targets (728 drones, 13 missiles) overnight, including over 300 Shaheds. UAF successfully employed "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups (Sumy Oblast). US military aid supply has resumed. UAF 77th Airmobile Brigade captured an RUF officer. UAF 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade captured a 163rd Tank Regiment soldier. UAF unit "Wormbusters" destroyed an RUF Strela-10 SAM. UAF General Staff confirms 100 TOS-1A, TOS-2 systems destroyed. UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reports destroying 15 Russian artillery pieces. UAF 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade training on firing on the move. SBU detained Chinese citizens attempting to transfer secret documentation on "Neptune" missile complex. President Zelenskyy's meeting with Pope Francis, Italian President Mattarella, and Trump's special envoy Kellog signifies continued high-level diplomatic efforts. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade using ground robots (UGVs). UAF Phoenix Border Guard Service unit effective in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade reports neutralizing 136 occupiers in June. UAF is conducting large-scale searches at customs in three regions, with SBU detaining a top customs official in Kyiv, confirming anti-corruption efforts. UAF 241st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Vyriy" RUBpAK (drone unit) actively engaged on Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF Air Force "East" Command confirms destruction of aerial targets via video. Coordination Staff for POWs is holding an IT camp, signifying continued rehabilitation efforts. A new UAF video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows a MiG-29 conducting an airstrike with four GBU-39s on Russian artillery positions, indicating continued tactical air support and precision strike capabilities. UAF 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade (30 OMBr) utilizing drones on fiber optics in Donetsk Oblast, indicating technological advancement in targeting. Ukrainian Paratrooper Assault Forces (DSVZSU) show photos of troops maintaining defensive positions, showcasing morale and readiness. New photos from UAF General Staff show young individuals in military gear, under the caption "Young people stand up to defend the Motherland," suggesting recruitment or training efforts. Another photo series from UAF General Staff shows soldiers training in gas masks, indicating readiness for chemical/biological threats or difficult environments. UAF General Staff has released an operational update as of 091600Z JUL 25. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" has posted a series of images depicting a soldier with a rifle and various training scenarios, emphasizing strong hand, sharp eye, and spirit forged by generations. This is a clear messaging effort to boost morale and project readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF source "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" reports receiving a set of tires for a "combat chariot" of RUBaK 10th Separate Motorized Infantry Battalion, 59th Separate Assault Brigade. This highlights ongoing efforts to maintain and equip UAF units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF SSOs (Special Operations Forces) UA_REG TEAM have neutralized a Russian "Zemledelie" remote mining system, indicating effective counter-mine and special operations capabilities. The accompanying video shows a BM-21 Grad and damaged vehicles, suggesting active engagement. STERNENKO confirms this neutralization with video footage, showing a BM-21 Grad MLRS being destroyed by a precision strike from a drone's perspective, emphasizing the "jackpot" for UA_REG TEAM. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Oleg Synegubov, Kharkiv Oblast Governor, posts photos thanking emergency responders, indicating UAF efforts to address RUF strike damage and maintain civilian morale. KMVA posts photos and statements regarding collaboration with NGOs and volunteers for post-strike recovery in Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, spending over $1.3 billion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF General Staff posts photos and caption on equipment and training of crews, scaling and capability acquisition for drone systems. This confirms a high-level focus on UAF drone development. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that units from the SBS and "Drone Line" struck every third target hit by the Defense Forces in June, according to Syrsky. This highlights a significant shift towards drone-centric warfare and UAF's effective C2 in coordinating these operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports enemy drones are already entering Ukrainian airspace, indicating current air defense alerts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Presidential Brigade of the UAF has posted a video showing successful drone-based combat operations, targeting and destroying multiple RUF personnel and equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF Air Force reports a UAV on the north of Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an alert for a group of "Shaheds" in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Chernihiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows UAF drone and artillery hunting RUF tanks on the Toretsk direction, indicating ongoing and effective UAF offensive/defensive operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine confirms Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg in Rome. Operatyvnyi ZSU also confirms this meeting. STERNENKO reports the meeting of Zelenskyy with Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg has begun in Rome. RBC-Ukraine has posted a video showing President Zelenskyy meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella in Rome, indicating continued high-level diplomatic efforts. Zelenskiy / Official also posts a video of his meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella, stating "Good and important conversation that confirms sincere friendship between our peoples. Thanked for the support of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, for the assistance to our state." This reinforces high-level diplomatic engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a photo from the 14th Separate UAV Regiment, stating "This summer will be hellishly hot for the enemy!" with images of drone combat, signifying offensive intent and capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. BUUTSOV PLUS has released a video (labeled "Yoblik of the day") showing an individual in military attire caught in a large explosion near a destroyed structure, with Ukrainian military unit emblems. This is likely documentation of UAF combat operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports an incident in Kyiv where a BMW driver bit a police officer during detention and was subsequently transferred to a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC), indicating ongoing tensions related to mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Coordination Staff for POWs has held an outreach meeting with families of defenders in Novoyavorivsk, Lviv Oblast, demonstrating ongoing support for military families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing soldiers digging in a wooded area, with a "UKRAINE CONTEXT" overlay and a caption implying the recovery of personnel, likely casualties. This suggests ongoing UAF efforts to retrieve and manage losses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for an unidentified aerial target in Poltava Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. This indicates ongoing aerial threat monitoring and defensive posture. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF: Sustaining ground pressure in Kupyansk and positional fighting in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Southern Donetsk (Tolsoty). Executing large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting deep Ukrainian cities (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv Oblast) utilizing a record number of drones (728) and missiles (13), including 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk, confirmed by RUF MoD. Actively countering UAF cross-border UAVs. Engaged in coordinated information warfare. RUF sources actively fundraising for drones (DJI Mavic 3 Pro) and assault troops. Colonelcassad confirms RUF artillery operations (Msta-B) and air-to-air drone engagements. RUF ambulances observed with anti-drone nets in Belgorod. RUF MoD implementing a rapid online confirmation system for military service. Colonelcassad reports destruction of an "enemy robotic platform" by RUF drone operators. RUF sources issuing warnings about UAF "treacherous traps" and "mines on their own bodies." TASS reports Peskov's statements regarding Putin not speaking with Trump and Russia expecting proposals for a third round of negotiations. TASS reports the Investigative Committee (SK) charged teenagers in Orenburg and Udmurtia with terrorism for setting fire to railway equipment, and FSB detained five Russians for arson. RUF source "A P" reiterates 728 long-range UAVs, 7 cruise missiles, 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles launched. WarGonzo using social media safety warnings as cover for reporting on UAV attacks in Smolensk Oblast. TASS reports Russia's human rights ombudsman Moskal'kova sent a letter to Pope Francis regarding Russian citizens in Ukraine. MoD Russia releases photo messages of 144th Motorised Rifle Brigade training in LPR, possibly indicating force generation or rotation. "Два майора" posts video showing IFAK (Individual First Aid Kit) contents for Marine Special Forces, indicating focus on individual soldier sustainment. Kadyrov_95 video shows Chechen forces, possibly OMON "Akhmat-Grozny" engaging in training, parades, and combat footage with BTRs and Tigr-M, emphasizing their readiness and combat role. Archangel Spetsnaz video shows drone reconnaissance/attack, indicating continued aerial operations and targeting. MoD Russia video "Vostok Group of Forces" shows aerial observation of destroyed buildings, thermal signatures, and explosions, confirming active combat operations. RUF Air Force shows active tactical aviation on the northeastern direction ("Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine"). RUF Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms agreement with Oman on mutual visa cancellation from July 18, signaling continued diplomatic normalization efforts. MoD Russia video shows Russian Defense Minister Belousov holding talks with Kazakhstan's Defense Minister, highlighting continued military-diplomatic engagements. "Игорь Артамонов" (Governor of Lipetsk Oblast) posted a video featuring young men in military uniforms seemingly at a recruitment event, reinforcing recruitment efforts and propaganda emphasizing patriotism. RUF source Colonelcassad has published the Russian Ministry of Defense's summary of the special military operation for 09 July 2025, which will contain RUF's official claims of battlefield status. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source "Филолог в засаде" is amplifying messages about challenges in providing for RUF troops, specifically seeking "air relays for their strike drones" to enhance effectiveness. They also report that "over 800 tanks" have been fitted with Kontakt-1 Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) through volunteer efforts, indicating attempts to enhance vehicle survivability but also potential reliance on non-state actors for equipment upgrades. This source also highlights volunteer efforts in producing 9000 evacuation stretchers and high-quality individual first aid kits and medical backpacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo has an image related to "repair of GROZA-3," possibly referring to an EW system, indicating ongoing maintenance or development of EW capabilities. TASS reports Putin has instructed the creation of a state information resource "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" by June 30, 2026. This indicates efforts to control foreign presence within Russia. MoD Russia video showing effective elimination of targets by Russian kamikaze drones, showing drone-view footage of a strike on a fortified dugout/trench position, confirming active tactical drone use. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. НгП раZVедка (RUF source) reports on results of overnight strikes, likely confirming impact assessments. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo message claiming UAF mined bodies of their comrades near Novoukrainka in DNR. This is a significant RUF narrative push. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA reports that Russia will open separate rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted war participants, indicating a growing internal social challenge and state response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Operation Z has posted a video showing what is claimed to be a "monster tank" with extensive camouflage, described as an "Iron Man" tank, allegedly deployed to break the front. This is likely a propaganda piece intended to boost RUF morale and intimidate UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The MoD Russia video featuring an AFU POW claiming heavy Ukrainian losses and low morale, detailing torture by Ukrainian Military Police, is a direct information operation aimed at undermining UAF morale and internal cohesion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad's animated scheme shows RUF strikes on Ukrainian territory on 08-09 July 2025, confirming widespread targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an online system for military service confirmation for soldiers participating in the "special military operation", suggesting efforts to streamline bureaucratic processes for their forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kotsnews quotes Boris Johnson, Merz, and Macron stating "Let's just fight," likely an RUF attempt to frame Western leaders as unwilling to negotiate. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. Alex Parker Returns also posts a New York Times article (which they label "yellow tabloid") claiming Russia will launch over 1000 drones per night by autumn, framing it as a positive development for Russia. Operation Z is also amplifying this NYT report as a Russian success. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns also shared a video showing a Russian armored vehicle covered in what appear to be unexploded UAF FPV drones, suggesting a form of improvised counter-drone armor is effective. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posted a video of a discussion on the psychological impact of war, particularly regarding the mental state of mobilized soldiers, potentially signaling RUF awareness of internal morale issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Два майора" has posted photos under the rubric "Soldier's everyday life," showing Russian soldiers in various relaxed or routine settings, including one soldier with a cat, and another with a dog. This is likely an attempt to humanize RUF soldiers and maintain morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kadyrov_95 has posted a video celebrating Chechen athletes receiving awards, suggesting a focus on internal social affairs and projecting a positive image within Chechnya, rather than direct military activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns reports Putin signed a decree to create a "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" by June 30, 2026, which will include biometric data. This signifies an ongoing effort to track and control foreign nationals within Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Arkhangel Spetsnaza has posted a video showing aerial drone footage of military operations, with text overlays and a "Z" symbol, confirming continued RUF drone use for surveillance and attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports that Hungarian PM Orbán stated Ukraine and the EU lost the armed conflict with Russia, and Russia cannot be defeated. This statement indicates RUF leverage of perceived Western disunity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad has posted a photo message mocking the "Trump Team," featuring a civilian car with stickers, which is likely a form of information warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Rybar has posted a video analyzing the EU and UK's support for Ukraine amid reductions in US military aid, suggesting challenges for the EU's military-industrial complex and potential shortages for Ukraine. This is an RUF-aligned analytical piece. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Rybar has released a video asking "How will they fight?", which focuses on Ukraine's military capabilities and Western aid, implying shortages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a bill has passed expanding the grounds for deprivation of Russian citizenship, indicating increased internal state control measures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports S7 Airlines is working on options for flights to Gelendzhik, which suggests a return to normalcy for civilian air travel in southern Russia, potentially indicating reduced perceived threat from UAVs in the area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA has amplified a New York Times report claiming Russia will be able to regularly launch over 1000 drones at a time by autumn. This is a significant RUF information operation designed to project overwhelming future capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad reports that Yanina Sokolovskaya has been added to the list of extremists and terrorists. This is a continuation of internal RUF control measures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kotsnews features an opinion piece acknowledging the "revolution of drones" in military affairs and Russia's challenge in overcoming it, suggesting a degree of internal recognition of their own vulnerabilities and need for adaptation in drone warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports that an investigation is demanding the заочное arrest of "Meduza" founder Timchenko on charges related to an "undesirable organization." This indicates continued pressure on independent media and perceived opposition figures within Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Старше Эдды reports on the visit of Kazakhstan's Defense Minister, Dauren Kosanov, to Moscow, highlighting his Soviet military background and the importance of this first visit to Russia, indicating continued military-diplomatic ties and efforts to strengthen alliances. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a map of Ukraine with marked locations of RUF strikes from the previous night, accompanied by the caption "Strikes on Ukraine - where our troops hit last night." This is a clear confirmation of widespread RUF deep strikes and an information operation to highlight their reach. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Военкор Котенок posts "Главные новости сегодня (09.07.2025)" with text overlays, implying an official RUF summary of current events. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities: RUF demonstrates continued capacity for localized ground offensives (Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Tolsoty, Siversk), robust defensive operations (Toretsk, Kherson, Sumy/Kursk border), and highly coordinated, record-setting multi-vector deep aerial strikes (728 drones and 13 missiles, including 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk). Their air defense capabilities remain effective (86 UAVs claimed shot down, confirmed air-to-air drone engagements, 2 drones shot down over Crimea, including confirmed destruction of a UAF 'Bohdana' self-propelled howitzer by a Lancet drone by the 305th Artillery Brigade). RUF retains robust information warfare capabilities, leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach attack for emotional appeal and internal security incidents for narrative control. RUF units continue to solicit donations for specific equipment (drones, thermal imagers), and now for Starlink terminals for communications on the Zaporizhzhia front. Continued use of towed artillery (Msta-B) suggests adequate ammunition supply for attritional warfare. Adoption of anti-drone nets on ambulances and improvised anti-FPV drone armor on vehicles (Belgorod) indicates tactical adaptation. RUF observed using FPV drones against UAF vehicles. Increased focus on internal security operations against alleged "saboteurs" and leveraging incidents for information effects. Training photos of the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade indicate continued force generation and tactical training for attritional warfare. Provision of IFAKs to Marine Special Forces shows an ongoing emphasis on individual soldier sustainment. New RUF FPV drone footage from TASS shows destruction of a UAF pickup with a "roaming mortar," indicating continued effective tactical drone use. Kotsnews video shows successful drone strikes on a HMMWV, pickup truck, and engaging a BMP 'Bradley', highlighting advanced ISR and precision strike capabilities. Chechen forces demonstrate combined arms capabilities and high morale. Archangel Spetsnaz video indicates continued use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting, with capability to visually identify and strike vehicles. MoD Russia "Vostok Group" video shows aerial observation of destroyed buildings, thermal signatures, and explosions, confirming active combat operations. RUF Air Force shows active tactical aviation on the northeastern direction ("Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine"). RUF Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms agreement with Oman on mutual visa cancellation from July 18, signaling continued diplomatic normalization efforts. MoD Russia video shows Russian Defense Minister Belousov holding talks with Kazakhstan's Defense Minister, highlighting continued military-diplomatic engagements. "Игорь Артамонов" (Governor of Lipetsk Oblast) posted a video featuring young men in military uniforms seemingly at a recruitment event, reinforcing recruitment efforts and propaganda emphasizing patriotism. RUF source Colonelcassad has published the Russian Ministry of Defense's summary of the special military operation for 09 July 2025, which will contain RUF's official claims of battlefield status. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source "Филолог в засаде" is amplifying messages about challenges in providing for RUF troops, specifically seeking "air relays for their strike drones" to enhance effectiveness. They also report that "over 800 tanks" have been fitted with Kontakt-1 Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) through volunteer efforts, indicating attempts to enhance vehicle survivability but also potential reliance on non-state actors for equipment upgrades. This source also highlights volunteer efforts in producing 9000 evacuation stretchers and high-quality individual first aid kits and medical backpacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo has an image related to "repair of GROZA-3," possibly referring to an EW system, indicating ongoing maintenance or development of EW capabilities. TASS reports Putin has instructed the creation of a state information resource "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" by June 30, 2026. This indicates efforts to control foreign presence within Russia. MoD Russia video showing effective elimination of targets by Russian kamikaze drones, showing drone-view footage of a strike on a fortified dugout/trench position, confirming active tactical drone use. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. НгП раZVедка (RUF source) reports on results of overnight strikes, likely confirming impact assessments. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo message claiming UAF mined bodies of their comrades near Novoukrainka in DNR. This is a significant RUF narrative push. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA reports that Russia will open separate rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted war participants, indicating a growing internal social challenge and state response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Operation Z has posted a video showing what is claimed to be a "monster tank" with extensive camouflage, described as an "Iron Man" tank, allegedly deployed to break the front. This is likely a propaganda piece intended to boost RUF morale and intimidate UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The MoD Russia video featuring an AFU POW claiming heavy Ukrainian losses and low morale, detailing torture by Ukrainian Military Police, is a direct information operation aimed at undermining UAF morale and internal cohesion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF has the capability for widespread, simultaneous drone/missile attacks as demonstrated by Colonelcassad's animated strike map. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Rybar's video analyzing Western aid to Ukraine indicates RUF has the capability to conduct detailed analysis of Ukrainian and Western logistical vulnerabilities for targeting purposes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA's amplification of the NYT report on 1000+ drones per launch by autumn suggests RUF's ambition and perceived capability in drone warfare production. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kotsnews' internal assessment of the "revolution of drones" and the difficulty in countering it suggests RUF is actively analyzing and seeking to improve its capabilities in this domain. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad's video titled "Donbas" shows RUF capabilities for drone reconnaissance, target identification (including UAF 'Baba-Yaga' drones and M113 APCs), and effective engagement of UAF personnel, demonstrating advanced ISR and precision strike capabilities in the Donbas. The clear visual identification of targets and successful engagements indicates a high level of tactical proficiency. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF has demonstrated the capability for mass FPV drone attacks on urban areas, as seen in Dobropillya, indicating an expansion of their FPV drone targeting beyond front-line military targets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo video titled "Paratroopers break into AFU strongholds in Zaporozhye" shows RUF capability for aerial reconnaissance and targeting of UAF fortified positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. MoD Russia video shows "Artillery of Vostok Group of Forces engages UAV command posts of enemy in Zaporozhye direction", confirming RUF capability to detect and target UAF drone C2 nodes, indicating an evolving counter-UAV strategy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Intentions:
  • Kupyansk: Continue incremental territorial gains, exert pressure on Kharkiv via shelling and probing actions (Pechenihy), and KAB launches from the north. The tactical map from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" explicitly highlights ongoing offensive intent around Lyptsi and Vovchansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Toretsk/Konstantinovka/Tolsoty/Pokrovsk/Lyman/Siversk/Kramatorsk): Maintain pressure, achieve breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, repel UAF counterattacks, prevent UAF from seizing initiative. Specific offensive intent in Konstantinovka and Southern Donetsk (Tolsoty). Poddubny's reporting on troop concentration in Konstantinovka suggests an RUF intent to engage a large UAF grouping there. Advances in Siversk indicate intent to open new avenues of advance or tie down UAF resources. The Krasnolimanskoye tactical map shows RUF intent to advance/secure areas like Yampolivka and Torske. The destruction of UAF positions near Yablunivka confirms RUF's intent to degrade and capture UAF tactical positions. The active combat near Pokrovsk with claims of "burning tanks and NATO equipment" signifies an intent to continue offensive operations on this axis. The expert statement by Yan Gagin regarding creating an "incendiary bag" in Konstantinovka indicates an intent to isolate and destroy UAF forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo video "Paratroopers break into AFU strongholds in Zaporozhye" suggests RUF intent to continue offensive pressure and break through UAF defenses in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Deep Strikes: Continue to target critical and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, especially high-value military airfields (Lutsk, potentially Ozerny Airfield in Zhytomyr), to degrade warfighting capacity, deplete UAF air defense munitions, and exert psychological pressure. The increased volume and use of Kinzhals signifies intent to overwhelm UAF air defenses and force expenditure of expensive interceptors. The repeated high-speed targets towards Chuhuiv/Kharkiv suggest intent to disrupt or degrade military infrastructure there. The reported killing of a one-year-old in Kherson by a drone strike and the 5-year-old in Kursk highlights a brutal and indiscriminate application of this capability, likely aimed at terrorizing the civilian population. Continued KAB use on Sumy Oblast and now repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast, including the border areas with Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, indicates intent to degrade defenses and soften targets for ground advances. The "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv suggests an intent to probe or exploit perceived vulnerabilities in different sectors. The presence of a UAV moving south in Chernihiv Oblast indicates continued reconnaissance or strike intent for northern Ukraine, particularly around Chernihiv city. The new air raid alerts for Kyiv and surrounding oblasts due to Shahed threat indicate continued intent to strike deep into Ukraine's capital region. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians once again shelled the train station in Kherson, demonstrating intent to disrupt civilian logistics and terrorize the population. The FPV drone attack on Dobropillya indicates an intent to expand the targeting of civilian areas with FPV drones, likely for terrorization and disruption. The confirmed power outages in Sumy due to enemy attack on an energy facility indicates continued RUF intent to degrade Ukrainian energy infrastructure. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's map of RUF strikes confirms widespread targeting of Ukrainian territory. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Warfare: Continue to promote narratives of UAF losses, RUF successes, and UAF aggression against Russian territory (Kursk beach incident, alleged Ukrainian sabotage in Saratov and railway arson) to justify operations and maintain domestic support. Attempt to generate narratives of direct NATO involvement. Actively attempt to sow discord within Ukrainian society by highlighting purported negative aspects of mobilization (as per Colonelcassad's video of a captured UAF soldier, and "Басурин о главном" on UAF data leaks, and the incident of the driver biting a police officer in Kyiv). Colonelcassad's claim of 230,000 UAF deserters is a significant disinformation push to undermine UAF morale and recruitment. TASS reporting on the arrest of an "extremist" blogger and a former Ukrainian vice-premier reinforces their narrative of internal and external threats. RUF sources' focus on "virtual 'storming of Siversk'" could be a narrative shaping operation for an upcoming real assault. RUF will heavily exploit the confirmed death of the 5-year-old boy in Kursk, framing it as a UAF terrorist act against civilians. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" explicitly states "RDK and traitors in Ukraine," reinforcing the narrative of internal opposition and external aggression. RUF sources are pushing a narrative that UAF has mined bodies of their comrades near Novoukrainka, intended to demonize UAF and impact morale. The video from MoD Russia featuring a UAF POW detailing torture by Ukrainian Military Police is a clear attempt to demonize UAF and sow dissent. RUF sources are amplifying predictions from Western media (e.g., NYT) about a massive increase in Russian drone production to project overwhelming future capability. TASS reports Orbán's statement that Ukraine and EU lost the conflict, clearly showing intent to exploit Western disunity. TASS reporting Trump's tariffs on Moldova could be framed as Western economic instability or punitive action from the US. "Басурин о главном" explicitly using the dead child in Kursk for emotional propaganda ("This was our only heir") demonstrates RUF's intent to maximize the emotional impact of such events to justify their war. "Басурин о главном" also posts "West in agony: The closer Russia's victory, the louder the wails of Western countries," explicitly stating an intent to demoralize Western audiences and project RUF victory. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Security: Intensify counter-sabotage and counter-terrorism operations within Russia, particularly in border regions, and use successful interdictions for propaganda. The reported detentions of former officials and the Moscow Art Theater incident suggest a broader crackdown on dissent or perceived threats. The searches at MHAT Gorky director's home reinforce this. The detention of MHAT director Kekhman and the addition of entrepreneur Areg Shchepikhin to the extremist/terrorist list confirm a broadening scope of internal crackdowns aimed at stifling dissent and controlling information. Putin's instruction to create a "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" indicates an intent to increase state control over foreign nationals within Russia, possibly for security or demographic reasons. The arrests of municipal officials in Dagestan and the Armenian opposition MP reflect a broader intent to suppress perceived threats to stability, both internal and regional. The reported opening of rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted war participants indicates a recognition of social problems arising from the conflict and an intent to address them, albeit potentially for state control and reintegration. The expansion of grounds for deprivation of Russian citizenship indicates a further tightening of internal control. The demand for заочное arrest of the "Meduza" founder further highlights the intent to suppress independent media and control information domestically. The deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora from Moscow Oblast indicates RUF intent to enforce citizenship and residency rules and control ethnic communities within Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Diplomatic Strategy: Continue efforts to normalize relations with non-Western countries (Oman visa waiver, Kazakhstan defense talks) to circumvent sanctions and build new alliances. Exploit Western disunity (Hungary's blocking of EU aid, Slovakia's blocking of sanctions) to weaken support for Ukraine. Continue to present Russia as a victim and Ukraine as refusing negotiations, as evidenced by Moskal'kova's letter to the Pope. RUF's ban on Azerbaijan dairy imports after refusal of inspection may signal an intent to exert economic pressure or control trade flows. Rybar's video suggests an RUF intent to highlight the limitations of Western military-industrial capacity and its impact on Ukraine. Trump's new tariffs on Moldova indicate a complex geopolitical landscape, which RUF may exploit to highlight perceived Western disunity or instability, potentially influencing Moldovan neutrality or alignment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Courses of Action:
  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue attritional ground assaults in key Donbas sectors (Chasiv Yar main effort, increasing pressure on Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk, and continued local advances like Tolsoty and Siversk) and maintain localized pressure in Kupyansk and Kharkiv Oblast via shelling and probing actions, including FPV drone attacks, mass FPV drone attacks on urban areas like Dobropillya, and KABs on Sumy Oblast and now repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast, including the border areas with Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk. Offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction (Lyptsi, Vovchansk) will continue, with attempts to consolidate gains, as indicated by new tactical maps. Expect further waves of diversified aerial attacks, primarily drones and missiles, targeting deep areas of Ukraine with high volume, including potentially new patterns of attack (e.g., Mykolaiv morning drones) and new air raid alerts for Kyiv and surrounding oblasts due to Shahed threats. Expect continued deep strikes on logistical hubs such as Ozerny Airfield in Zhytomyr, and civilian infrastructure like the Kherson train station and Sumy energy facilities. RUF will sustain efforts to counter UAF cross-border UAVs and intensify their information campaigns, leveraging incidents for maximum propaganda effect (Kursk child fatality, alleged UAF mined bodies, POW torture claims), captured UAF soldiers, alleged UAF desertions, and promoting internal security successes. RUF internal security services will continue to target alleged Ukrainian "saboteurs" and use these incidents for internal propaganda, broadening the scope of targets to include perceived internal dissenters and those labelled "extremists" or "terrorists". RUF will continue to build diplomatic relations outside of the Western bloc and use diplomatic engagements (like Moskal'kova's letter) to push their narratives. RUF will continue to use propaganda to project overwhelming future drone capabilities and effective counter-drone measures. RUF will likely continue to demonstrate inadequate casualty evacuation methods, as seen in the motorcycle sidecar video and body bags on trailer. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): No new information suggesting a shift from the previous MDCOA. (Refer to previous report for MDCOA regarding Kharkiv offensive and Donbas breakthrough). The continued RUF use of KABs in Sumy region and high force concentration in Belgorod keeps the Kharkiv offensive as a serious threat. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF: Demonstrated a significantly increased scale and depth of aerial attacks, as evidenced by the mass attack on Lutsk (including 4 Kinzhals, confirmed by RUF MoD) and targets across Ukraine, including a record number of drones (728). This suggests an adaptation to overwhelm UAF air defense or deplete ammunition, and target high-value assets/locations in Western Ukraine (e.g., airfields). Confirmed use of "Geran" (Shahed) drones. New observation of anti-drone nets on ambulances in Belgorod and improvised anti-FPV drone armor on vehicles indicates a tactical adaptation. RUF observed using FPV drones against UAF vehicles. Increased focus on internal security operations against alleged "saboteurs" and leveraging incidents for information effects. Training photos of the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade indicate continued force generation and tactical training for attritional warfare. Provision of IFAKs to Marine Special Forces shows an ongoing emphasis on soldier sustainment. RUF PVO claiming 97% effectiveness from UAF counter-narrative (Alex Parker Returns) suggests RUF is attempting to counter UAF public claims of air defense success. Archangel Spetsnaz video suggests adaptation in drone combat ("Воздушный бой принял другой облик!"). The video from "Военкор Котенок" mocking UAF air defense suggests a psychological adaptation. Continued use of KABs in Sumy and now repeated KABs on Donetsk Oblast and its border regions with Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk indicates a sustained tactical air support capability for ground operations. Colonelcassad's focus on "electromagnetic weapons" and project "Alabuga" suggests an adaptation to counter UAF drone capabilities. The reported transport methods of UAF personnel (UAZik, Nivas without roofs, motorcycles, even horses) are a significant RUF tactical observation, highlighting vulnerable UAF logistics and the effectiveness of RUF drones/artillery against them. RUF sources highlighting that over 800 tanks have been equipped with Kontakt-1 ERA (even if via volunteer efforts) indicates a tactical adaptation to improve tank survivability. RUF sources are requesting aerial relays for their strike drones, which suggests a tactical need to extend drone range and effectiveness, indicating an adaptation in progress. RUF forces on the Zaporizhzhia front have received Starlink terminals and cameras, indicating an adaptation to improve battlefield communications and ISR. MoD Russia video confirming effective kamikaze drone strikes indicates a continued refinement of tactical drone application and targeting. RUF tactical aviation activity in the southeast suggests an adaptation to maintain air superiority or conduct strikes from new directions. The video showing body bags on a rusty trailer, followed by military trucks, suggests RUF forces may be employing inadequate and inhumane methods for handling and evacuating casualties, possibly due to logistical strain or lack of resources for proper procedures. The "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv indicates RUF is adapting its drone strike patterns and targets. RUF claims of UAF mining bodies of comrades is a tactical adaptation of information warfare, directly aimed at demoralizing UAF and influencing public opinion. The new "monster tank" propaganda by Operation Z suggests a tactical adaptation in information warfare to project an image of overwhelming, unassailable force. RUF is also adapting its internal administrative processes with an online system for military service confirmation. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's video showcasing "Mavics with drops" (drone-dropped munitions) as a "real nightmare for AFU infantry" confirms continued refinement of tactical drone usage and emphasis on targeting infantry. RUF's use of a dead child from Kursk in propaganda is a significant adaptation of information warfare, leveraging highly emotional content. Kotsnews' opinion piece on the "revolution of drones" suggests an internal military-intellectual adaptation to the evolving nature of warfare, acknowledging the need for Russia to adapt its strategies and resources to counter and leverage drone technology. Colonelcassad's "Donbas" video, identifying UAF 'Baba-Yaga' drones and drone repeaters, shows RUF's tactical adaptation to identify and target UAF drone C2 and support infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russian FPV-drones have for the first time massively attacked Dobropillya, indicating a tactical adaptation to use FPV drones in mass strikes against civilian urban areas. The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing a wounded soldier being evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar indicates a tactical adaptation for casualty evacuation under difficult conditions, albeit potentially unsafe and rudimentary. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF: Sustained very high volume of cross-border UAV attacks. Effective air defense responses against record-setting RUF air assaults (741 targets neutralized), including specifically identifying mobile fire groups of the Border Guard Service in Sumy Oblast successfully downing Shaheds and "Gerbera" drones. Confirmed use and scaling of "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups. Continued tactical flexibility in counterattacks (Toretsk, Kherson) and effective FPV drone operations (destroying a Strela-10 SAM, attacking RUF positions in Kamenske). Demonstrated success in capturing RUF personnel. Official confirmation of US arms supply resumption provides critical tactical and strategic stability. UAF General Staff highlighting 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems destroyed indicates effective counter-flamethrower tactics. UAF Southern Defense Forces confirmed effective drone strikes against RUF artillery. UAF strikes on Russian drone production facilities (Alabuga) represent a new tactical adaptation. Effective counter-intelligence operations against foreign espionage (Chinese citizens attempting to steal Neptune missile technology). UAF 3rd Assault Brigade's use of ground robotic platforms in offensive operations indicates significant tactical innovation. UAF Phoenix Border Guard Service's interdiction in Kharkiv demonstrates effective local C2. UAF conducting large-scale searches at customs. UAF Air Force "East" Command confirms active air defense. UAF MiG-29 conducting strikes with GBU-39s on RUF artillery positions indicates effective use of Western precision munitions. UAF 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade (30 OMBr) using drones on fiber optics signifies advanced tactical adaptation in reconnaissance and targeting, especially for night operations. UAF General Staff sharing training images of new recruits in gas masks indicates readiness for NBC warfare or training under adverse conditions. UAF SSOs have successfully neutralized a Russian "Zemledelie" remote mining system, indicating effective counter-mine and special operations tactics. UAF 44th Separate Artillery Brigade is conducting effective counter-battery fire in the Zaporizhzhia direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The public call for electricity conservation by Ukrenergo reflects a tactical adaptation to manage a stressed energy grid under continuous attack. Kharkіv Oblast Governor posts regarding thanking emergency responders suggests UAF adaptation to manage public sentiment and demonstrate post-strike recovery efforts. KMVA's collaboration with NGOs for post-strike recovery reflect an adaptation to civilian-military cooperation in managing consequences of conflict. UAF General Staff focusing on drone system development (crews, scaling, capabilities) is a significant adaptation to future warfare, acknowledging the importance of UAVs. Syrsky's statement that units from the SBS and "Drone Line" struck every third target highlights a significant tactical adaptation towards drone-centric operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Presidential Brigade of the UAF is actively employing drones for combat, as shown in their recent video, indicating successful tactical integration of UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Operatyvnyi ZSU's image of the 14th Separate UAV Regiment stating "This summer will be hellishly hot for the enemy!" suggests an adaptation in operational tempo and aggressive posture for drone warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. BUUTSOV PLUS's video of an individual caught in an explosion indicates UAF units are documenting combat for analysis or morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine's report showing a driver biting a police officer and being transferred to the TCC indicates an adaptation to address challenges in mobilization, leveraging law enforcement cooperation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The expert explanation on Kinzhal interception over Lutsk (RBC-Ukraine) indicates UAF is adapting its public messaging to manage expectations and provide nuanced information on air defense challenges, rather than simply claiming successes or failures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The installation of solar power stations on educational facilities in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates a tactical and strategic adaptation by local authorities to ensure energy resilience against RUF strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Coordination Staff for POWs conducting outreach meetings with families in Novoyavorivsk demonstrates an adaptation to support military families and maintain morale during ongoing conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing soldiers digging and "digging up the guys" suggests UAF tactical adaptation for casualty retrieval and possibly defensive preparations in challenging environments. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. DeepState's photo message about Computer Vision Engineers for drone applications suggests a strong UAF adaptation towards advanced AI/ML integration for military purposes, specifically for target recognition and situational awareness in drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF: The record-setting number of drones (728) strongly suggests sustained production or significant resupply of UAVs. Widespread aerial strikes suggest continued production or resupply of drones and missiles. RUF units actively fundraising for specific items (DJI Mavic 3 Pro drones, thermal imagers, Mavics for VDV), and now Starlink terminals, suggests a potential gap or high demand for certain capabilities, particularly for specific unit types like VDV. Loss of 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems represents a significant logistical and combat capability loss. Training photos of the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade and video on IFAKs indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and equip forces. The reported arrival of one million Indian labor migrants to Russia (Оперативний ЗСУ) could indicate RUF's effort to address labor shortages and sustain its economy supporting the war effort. The reported equipping of over 800 tanks with Kontakt-1 ERA (even if via volunteer efforts) indicates a push for better survivability, potentially due to high attrition rates. The call for aerial relays for strike drones highlights a current logistical/technological limitation they are attempting to overcome. The video showing body bags being transported on a rusty trailer suggests severe logistical deficiencies in handling deceased personnel, possibly indicating insufficient specialized vehicles or overwhelmed systems for proper procedures. RUF's decision to ban Azerbaijan dairy imports, citing refusal of inspection, points to potential use of trade as a logistical or political leverage. The opening of rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted war participants highlights a new and growing medical/logistical burden for the RUF system. Rybar's video analysis of EU/UK military industrial capacity indicates RUF is tracking Western aid and its potential logistical implications for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on drone supply, MEDIUM on other specific items, LOW on casualty evacuation logistics). TASS reporting on S7 Airlines resuming flights to Gelendzhik suggests improved logistical confidence in the region, likely implying lower perceived threats to civilian air travel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video of a wounded soldier evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar also highlights rudimentary logistical solutions for casualty evacuation, possibly due to lack of standard medical transport, which points to a sustainment gap. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF: Continued sustained operations imply ongoing logistical support. Official confirmation of US weapon supplies resuming is a critical positive development. Continued fundraising indicates ongoing equipment needs, mirroring RUF. UAF reports on striking Russian Shahed production facilities (Alabuga) indicates a strategy to impact RUF logistics. The extent of localized artillery/ammunition shortages (if "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" is UAF) remains a concern. New UAF fundraising appeals for FPV drones highlight continued critical demand for these assets. The "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report details UAF personnel being transported in highly vulnerable vehicles (UAZiks, Nivas without roofs, motorcycles, even horses) along dangerous routes for 7km, indicating significant logistical and vehicle shortages, forcing tactical adaptation that exposes personnel to high attrition. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" reporting receipt of tires for a UAF combat vehicle highlights ongoing, unit-level logistical support requirements. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, if confirmed, would significantly bolster UAF long-term air defense sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on US aid confirmation and maintenance), MEDIUM (on sustained tactical supply for all units), LOW (on protected personnel transport at the tactical edge). ASTRA's "charitable post" (fundraising) implies ongoing financial needs for various groups supporting the war effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Renewed power outages in Sumy indicate localized logistical challenges for civilian infrastructure, possibly impacting support to military operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Maintains effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes, including orchestrating a record-setting drone and missile attack. Ground C2 appears robust enough to repel UAF counterattacks and maintain pressure on various axes. Rapid adoption of anti-drone nets and improvised anti-FPV drone armor suggests effective tactical adaptation. The implementation of a rapid online system for military service confirmation indicates a functional, adapting bureaucracy. FSB operations and Pskov information ban indicate robust internal security C2. Appeals for donations by soldiers directly to the public suggests some C2 limitations in meeting all unit-level equipment needs, though not widespread failure. The training footage of the 144th Motorised Rifle Brigade and Chechen forces indicates a functional, if perhaps administratively demanding, training and force generation system. Bilateral talks between RUF Defense Minister Belousov and Kazakh Defense Minister indicate ongoing diplomatic and military coordination. Alex Parker Returns's consistent messaging implies effective information operations C2. The arrest of a former Voronezh official and an extremist blogger by internal security services indicates robust domestic C2 for maintaining control. RUF sources highlighting the equipping of over 800 tanks with ERA (even if via volunteer efforts) indicates that C2 is aware of survivability issues and is attempting to address them, even if relying on external support. The need for "aerial relays for strike drones" indicates a tactical C2 issue that needs addressing to maximize drone effectiveness. The supply of Starlink terminals to Zaporizhzhia indicates efforts to improve tactical communications C2. TASS reporting Putin's instruction on "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" indicates top-down C2 on internal state control. The detention of MHAT director Kekhman and adding Areg Shchepikhin to extremist/terrorist list reflects effective, albeit expanding, internal security C2. The inadequate casualty evacuation methods (rusty trailer with body bags, motorcycle sidecar) suggest C2 failures at the logistical and tactical levels regarding proper adherence to military and humanitarian standards for deceased personnel, or a system overwhelmed by attrition. The ban on Azerbaijan dairy imports also implies a C2 decision to exert economic pressure. The internal political statements from Володин regarding Reshetnikov indicate ongoing, active political C2 to address perceived inefficiencies or past mistakes. The Pskov Oblast information ban on drone strikes by Colonelcassad indicates proactive C2 to control information flow during perceived threats. The new bill expanding grounds for deprivation of Russian citizenship indicates top-down C2 for internal control. The investigation demanding the arrest of "Meduza" founder Timchenko further highlights robust C2 in suppressing perceived opposition and controlling information. The deportation of Elshan Ibragimov, head of the Azerbaijani diaspora, reflects effective internal security C2 in enforcing citizenship and residency regulations. Colonelcassad's "Donbas" video, identifying UAF 'Baba-Yaga' drones and drone repeaters, indicates effective RUF ISR and C2 for targeting UAF drone assets. MoD Russia video "Artillery of Vostok Group of Forces engages UAV command posts of enemy in Zaporozhye direction" confirms effective RUF C2 for targeting UAF drone C2 nodes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (strategic/operational), MEDIUM (tactical logistics C2 regarding casualty handling).
• UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, conducting cross-border drone operations, and managing ground engagements, including successful capture of RUF personnel and FPV drone strikes. C2 for strategic messaging remains functional. UAF General Staff and other high-level bodies are actively discussing POW exchanges. Successful SBU operation against Chinese spies demonstrates effective counter-intelligence C2. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade's successful UGV operation showcases effective tactical C2 and technological integration. UAF Phoenix Border Guard Service's interdiction in Kharkiv demonstrates effective local C2. UAF conducting searches at customs indicating efforts to combat corruption. UAF Air Force provides timely alerts and confirmation of air defense engagements, including tactical aviation activity on the eastern direction. Prosecutor General's office reporting on returned funds indicates continued efforts against corruption and effective financial oversight. The call for electricity conservation by Ukrenergo demonstrates C2 effectively communicating critical infrastructure needs to the public. The "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report details C2 deficiencies in logistics at the tactical edge, forcing units to use vulnerable transport methods, indicating a gap in operational-level C2 for protecting personnel movement. The effective counter-battery fire by UAF 44th OABr suggests robust C2 for artillery coordination. The successful neutralization of the "Zemledelie" system by SSO UA_REG TEAM demonstrates effective C2 for special operations. Oleg Synegubov's public appreciation for rescuers and KMVA's meetings with NGOs for post-strike recovery demonstrate effective civilian-military C2 for public relations and consequence management. UAF General Staff's high-level focus on drone system development, including crewing, scaling, and capability acquisition, indicates effective C2 in prioritizing and directing future military technology development. Syrsky's statement that units from the SBS and "Drone Line" units contributed to overall strikes highlights effective C2 in integrating new technologies and units. The Presidential Brigade's use of drones for combat indicates effective tactical C2 for UAV operations. The prompt reporting and updates from UAF Air Force on UAV movements in Chernihiv indicate effective ISR and C2. The incident in Kyiv where a driver was transferred to a TCC after biting a police officer indicates C2 coordination between law enforcement and military recruitment. The expert explanation on Kinzhal interception over Lutsk shows effective public information C2, managing expectations and explaining complex air defense realities. The installation of solar power stations in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates effective local C2 in implementing resilience measures. The Coordination Staff for POWs' outreach meetings in Novoyavorivsk indicate effective C2 for supporting military families and maintaining morale in Western Ukraine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video showing soldiers digging and recovering personnel indicates effective C2 for battlefield casualty management and unit cohesion. DeepState's focus on Computer Vision Engineers highlights effective C2 in integrating cutting-edge AI technology for drone operations and enhancing situational awareness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (strategic/operational level), MEDIUM (tactical logistics C2).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Force Posture: UAF maintains a layered defensive posture with active front-line engagements and a robust nationwide air defense network. Proactive offensive actions in the information domain and through cross-border UAV strikes, and now a confirmed strategy to target RUF military-industrial facilities (Alabuga). Counter-intelligence operations are actively protecting critical military technology. UAF is also developing and employing ground robotic platforms. UAF tactical aviation is actively engaged in precision strikes, as demonstrated by the MiG-29 GBU-39 attack. UAF 30th OMBr's use of fiber optic drones shows an advanced tactical posture. UAF Paratrooper Assault Forces are actively engaged in defense. The visual content from UAF General Staff showing young recruits and soldiers training in gas masks reinforces a posture of continuous force generation and readiness for diverse combat environments. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is actively engaging in messaging to boost morale and project readiness in the face of potential RUF offensives. The KMVA's engagement with volunteers for post-strike recovery indicates a posture of leveraging civilian support to maintain operational continuity and public resilience. The installation of solar power stations in Zaporizhzhia shows a strategic posture to enhance energy resilience in vulnerable regions. The Coordination Staff for POWs holding family outreach meetings in Lviv Oblast demonstrates a posture of comprehensive support for military personnel and their families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video of soldiers digging and recovering personnel suggests a posture of resilience and commitment to fallen comrades. DeepState's focus on Computer Vision Engineers indicates a forward-looking posture integrating advanced technology into military operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and effective air defense responses to mass RUF aerial attacks (741 targets neutralized). Units engaged in ground combat maintain operational tempo, including successful capture operations and effective FPV drone use. Official confirmation of US aid resumption significantly boosts long-term readiness. Maintenance and repair capabilities are demonstrated by "technical ambulance" vehicles. 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is maintaining training. The message from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) about lack of secure transport for personnel highlights a critical, localized readiness issue regarding troop movement and protection. New fundraising efforts from "Оперативний ЗСУ" for FPV drones and vehicle repairs indicate ongoing resource needs but also a high level of unit initiative. UAF 44th OABr's effective counter-battery fire and SSO UA_REG TEAM's neutralization of the "Zemledelie" system underscore high tactical readiness and capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (overall), MEDIUM (localized readiness in some units, particularly regarding personnel transport safety). Counter-espionage efforts (Neptune missile data) demonstrate proactive readiness. Coordination Staff for POWs implementing IT camps for rehabilitation indicates forward-looking human capital investment. Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office reporting on significant funds returned to the state budget indicates efforts to combat corruption which improves overall state readiness. UAF General Staff's confirmed focus on drone system development indicates proactive readiness in adapting to modern warfare. Syrsky's statement on drone contributions to strikes indicates a high level of readiness and integration of new units/capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • RECORD-SETTING Air Defense Performance: Successful interception of 741 RUF aerial targets (728 drones, 13 missiles) including over 300 Shaheds. Confirmed mobile fire group successes in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force "East" Command's confirmed destruction of aerial targets via video. RBC-Ukraine video shows UAF Air Force combat work against RUF drones. Expert explanation on Kinzhal non-interception in Lutsk provides a nuanced success, clarifying air defense challenges without undermining system effectiveness.
  • Official Resumption of US Weapon Supplies: Critical positive development. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, indicating long-term commitment to UAF air defense.
  • Sustained high volume of cross-border UAF drone attacks into Russia. STERNENKO reports "death roads" in Kursk Oblast due to Novem Group special unit Ballista, with video of a convoy being struck.
  • Successful drone strike by 414th UAV Brigade on an RUF military vehicle on Pokrovsk direction.
  • Effective FPV drone operations by 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade and 241st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Vyriy" RUBpAK. Arkhangel Spetsnaza has shown video of RUF drones effectively hitting UAF infantry positions ("Mavics with drops").
  • Successful FPV drone strike by "Wormbusters" destroying an RUF Strela-10 SAM.
  • Destruction of 100 Russian TOS-1A/TOS-2 Heavy Flamethrower Systems: Confirmed by UAF General Staff.
  • Destruction of 15 Russian Artillery Pieces: Confirmed by UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. UAF Southern Defense Forces also confirm successful drone strikes on RUF artillery. UAF MiG-29 striking RUF artillery positions with GBU-39s. UAF 44th OABr conducting effective counter-battery fire in Zaporizhzhia direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows successful UAF drone and artillery strikes on RUF tanks on Toretsk direction.
  • Capture of RUF officer by 77th Airmobile Brigade and RUF soldier by 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade. A new captured RUF soldier from the "Shtorm" unit of the 136th Brigade (Zaporizhzhia direction) further confirms successful capture operations.
  • Maintaining defensive lines against RUF pressure in Toretsk, Kherson, and Sumy/Kursk border.
  • EU discussing a 100 billion Euro fund.
  • UAF attacks on Russian Shahed production at "Alabuga."
  • Successful Counter-Espionage Operation: SBU detained Chinese citizens attempting to steal "Neptune" missile technology. ASTRA and Alex Parker Returns confirm the SBU operation.
  • President Zelenskyy's continued high-level diplomatic engagements (meeting with Pope Francis, Italian President Mattarella, and Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg). STERNENKO and Operatyvnyi ZSU confirm Zelenskyy's meeting with Pope Francis. Pope Francis proposes Vatican as venue for Ukraine-RUF peace talks. Zelenskyy's Official channel confirms a "very substantive conversation" with Pope Francis Leo XIV, thanking for support and prayers. RBC-Ukraine confirms Zelenskyy's meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella. Zelenskiy / Official posts a video of his meeting with Italian President Mattarella, reinforcing high-level diplomatic engagement.
  • UAF 3rd Assault Brigade's successful use of ground robots (UGVs) in offensive operations, including claimed RUF capitulation.
  • UAF Border Guard Service "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying RUF vehicles and preventing infantry advances in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • ECHR recognized Russia's responsibility for human rights violations in Donbas and downing MH17.
  • Ukrainian Presidential Brigade reports neutralizing 136 occupiers in June. The Presidential Brigade also published a video showing successful combat drone operations, neutralizing RUF personnel and equipment.
  • UAF conducting large-scale searches at customs points in three regions, with SBU detaining a top customs official. RBC-Ukraine reports the detention of a top official of the State Customs Service in Kyiv for schemes involving conscripts and migrants. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Office of the Prosecutor General confirms ongoing special operation to expose criminal schemes at customs in three regions of Ukraine and Kyiv, in cooperation with SBU, SBI, National Police, and BEB. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Significant RUF Officer Losses: "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" reports at least 6606 RUF officers "demobilized" since 2022, indicating a sustained attrition of RUF leadership. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Prosecutor General's Office recovered 330 million UAH for the state budget, indicating effective anti-corruption efforts.
  • UAF 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade (30 OMBr) destroying enemy with drones on fiber optics in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Paratrooper Assault Forces demonstrating high morale and defensive posture.
  • UAF General Staff promoting recruitment/training efforts for young Ukrainians.
  • Neutralization of Russian "Zemledelie" Remote Mining System: By SSO UA_REG TEAM. This is a significant success as these systems are designed for rapid, large-scale minefield deployment. STERNENKO confirms this neutralization with video footage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Oleg Synegubov's public gratitude to rescuers in Kharkiv indicates ongoing UAF efforts to address RUF strike damage and maintain civilian resilience and morale. KMVA's collaboration with NGOs for post-strike recovery indicate successful civilian-military cooperation in managing conflict consequences. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Mol oil company expressing interest in accessing Odesa port, which could boost Ukraine's economy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF General Staff's confirmed focus on drone system development indicates effective adaptation to future warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Syrsky's statement that SBS and "Drone Line" units contributed to every third strike by Defense Forces highlights a successful tactical and organizational integration of drone warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF Air Force is providing timely updates and alerts regarding "Shaheds" moving into Chernihiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the 14th Separate UAV Regiment is active, stating "This summer will be hellishly hot for the enemy!", indicating continued offensive drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • BUUTSOV PLUS's video of an individual caught in an explosion indicates UAF units are documenting combat for analysis or morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RBC-Ukraine's report showing a driver biting a police officer and being transferred to a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) may be intended to show that evasion of mobilization will result in consequences. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • The Coordination Staff for POWs has successfully conducted an outreach meeting with families of defenders in Novoyavorivsk, Lviv Oblast, demonstrating a successful effort in supporting military families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video showcasing the installation of solar power stations on educational facilities indicates a successful initiative to enhance energy independence and resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • DeepState's photo message highlighting Computer Vision Engineers in drone applications suggests a success in adopting advanced technology for battlefield intelligence and targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing soldiers digging and recovering personnel, which indicates a success in managing casualties and maintaining unit cohesion even in difficult circumstances. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Setbacks:
  • Massive RUF aerial attack on Lutsk (4 Kinzhals), Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, resulting in significant damage and casualties (Lutsk, Brovary, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - 1 civilian killed). Emergency power outage in Mykolaiv. Calls for electricity conservation. Mykolaiv experiencing an "atypical morning drone attack." Serhiy Lysak reports three districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were attacked by Russian troops. A UAV was reported moving south in Chernihiv Oblast, specifically Shaheds towards Chernihiv city. New air raid alerts for Kyiv and several oblasts due to Shahed threat. RBC-Ukraine reports renewed power outages in Sumy. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms power outages in Sumy due to enemy attack on an energy facility. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
  • RUF claims of pushing UAF from Kupyansk, repelling UAF counterattacks in Toretsk, and liberating Tolsoty.
  • Ongoing intense pressure on Chasiv Yar, with observed successful RUF interdiction of UAF rotation.
  • RUF reports of UAF drone strikes causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (3 dead, 7 injured) will be exploited by RUF. Confirmation of the death of the 5-year-old child in Kursk from the UAF drone strike is a significant humanitarian and information setback that RUF will fully exploit. "Басурин о главном" explicitly using the dead child in Kursk for emotional propaganda.
  • Reported unit-level shortages of artillery and ammunition by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) highlights critical tactical supply issues.
  • Confirmed Civilian Fatality (Child) in Kherson Oblast: RBU-Ukraine reports a one-year-old child killed by an RUF drone, a severe humanitarian setback. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians once again shelled the train station in Kherson, indicating continued damage to civilian infrastructure.
  • RUF claims of advances on Siversk direction.
  • Slovakia again blocking the 18th sanctions package against Russia, hindering EU coordinated actions. Hungary also opposes a 100 billion Euro EU fund for Ukraine.
  • RUF FPV-drone destroyed a UAF vehicle in Kharkiv Oblast. WarGonzo reports a burned UAF pickup truck on the Zaporizhzhia front with a deceased UAF soldier, indicating successful RUF tactical strikes and personnel losses.
  • Fire near Zugres, Donbas, approaching houses, in occupied territory.
  • Fire at a cemetery in Donetsk reported by Mash on Donbas, potentially caused by hostilities, indicates further civilian infrastructure damage.
  • Incident in Dobropillya, Donetsk Oblast, with chaos on the streets and possible explosion/attack, reported by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, indicates a civilian setback. RBC-Ukraine confirms a mass FPV-drone attack by Russians on Dobropillya, with videos showing burning civilian vehicles, indicating significant civilian damage and a new targeting pattern. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Fire at a House of Prayer in Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, caused by lightning strike, is a non-military setback.
  • **БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report details UAF personnel being transported in highly vulnerable vehicles (UAZiks, Nivas without roofs, motorcycles, even horses) for 7km along dangerous routes, leading to high attrition from RUF drones/artillery. This is a significant tactical setback for personnel protection. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian sources reporting a driver biting a police officer during a document check for military registration in Kyiv (Операция Z) indicates internal civil-military tension related to mobilization. The RBC-Ukraine video confirms this incident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing body bags on a rusty trailer, followed by military trucks, strongly implies inadequate and undignified handling of UAF casualties, potentially impacting troop morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video of a wounded soldier evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar also highlights a potentially unsafe and rudimentary casualty evacuation method, implying a logistical and personnel safety setback. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF's new disinformation campaign about Lithuania and Finland producing anti-personnel mines for Ukraine is a setback in the information domain that requires immediate debunking. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo of a wounded Russian machine gunner on crutches next to a self-made buggy, while meant to mock, highlights the resilience of some RUF personnel despite logistical challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Explosion in Sumy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS claims Polish mercenaries abandoned positions on the Sumy direction, if true, this would be a setback for UAF. CONFIDENCE: LOW (due to lack of independent verification).
  • RBC-Ukraine reports that Estonia may block the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia, indicating potential cracks in international support for sanctions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an alert for an unidentified aerial target in Poltava Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast, indicating ongoing aerial threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT due to the unprecedented intensity and scale of RUF aerial attacks. While US aid has resumed, the volume of interceptors expended during such attacks remains a significant concern. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, if confirmed, will significantly address this long-term. RBC-Ukraine reports a Ukrainian Air Force officer stating that if the US sends only 10 Patriot interceptor missiles, it would be a "stupid joke," highlighting the critical need for a large volume of interceptors. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• ISR/Night Vision/EW Resistant Drones: Continued need for thermal imagers, advanced optics, and, critically, drones with enhanced resistance to electronic warfare, given observed RUF counter-UAV adaptations. New fundraising appeals for FPV drones (Operatyvnyi ZSU, STERNENKO) reinforce this. RUF fundraising for DJI Mavic 3 Pro for VDV on Zaporizhzhia direction suggests their recognition of critical drone importance. The use of fiber optic drones by 30th OMBr indicates a need for continued investment in such advanced systems. RUF's request for aerial relays for their strike drones highlights a persistent, evolving threat to UAF drone dominance which must be countered with improved EW and resilient drone technology. UAF General Staff's focus on scaling up drone capabilities is a direct response to this. Syrsky's statement on drone contributions underscores the growing demand for these assets. DeepState's focus on Computer Vision Engineers indicates a requirement for advanced AI/ML capabilities for drone operations, enabling better target recognition and differentiation.
• Artillery Ammunition (Unit Level): The message from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) highlights a critical, localized need for artillery shells. UAF 44th OABr's counter-battery success suggests effective use of available ammunition, but sustained supply remains crucial.
• Protected Personnel Transport & Casualty Evacuation: The "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report identifies a severe and immediate requirement for protected, secure transport for front-line personnel movement to mitigate high attrition from RUF drone and artillery fire. This points to a systemic logistical gap. The video showing body bags on a rusty trailer highlights a critical need for adequate and humane casualty evacuation and handling resources to maintain troop morale and dignity. The video of a wounded soldier being evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar reinforces the critical need for improved, safer casualty evacuation means.
• External Military Aid: The official resumption of US arms supplies and the EU fund discussion are highly positive. However, the sheer volume and lethality of recent RUF air attacks underscores the urgency of rapid delivery and continued commitment. Slovakia's continued blocking of sanctions packages and Hungary's opposition to the EU fund highlights potential constraints on broader EU coordinated actions. Hungary's interest in accessing Odesa port may be a leverage point for future aid negotiations, or a sign of opportunistic economic engagement. Rybar's analysis of Western aid and military-industrial capacity highlights this as a key constraint for Ukraine. Trump's new tariffs on Moldova could impact regional stability and influence the flow of aid or trade into Ukraine indirectly via Moldova. Estonia possibly blocking sanctions package further highlights cracks in EU support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Anti-Corruption Measures: The ongoing searches at customs and detention of a top official, while positive for governance, may temporarily strain some administrative functions related to cross-border movements, but are crucial for long-term resource optimization.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF Narratives: Continue to broadcast claims of successful RUF air defense and attribute cross-border attacks to UAF, using incidents like the Kursk beach attack (with emotional appeals regarding a child) to demonize UAF. Promoting narratives of direct NATO involvement ("French Foreign Legion") and internal UAF issues (corruption, alleged TCC officer assassination, female mobilization, widespread draft dodging - as per "Операция Z" video and Colonelcassad claiming 230,000 UAF deserters, and the incident of a driver biting a police officer in Kyiv over military registration). Reporting on "liquidated saboteurs" and "railway arsonists" to portray effective internal security. Leveraging diplomatic statements (Trump) for perceived advantage. Claims that Trump "recognized liberated lands as Russian" is a significant false narrative. RUF continues to portray Ukraine as uninterested in negotiations. RUF sources ("Операция Z") claim Ukrainians are losing faith in "negotiators," and trust in Kyiv's peace rhetoric has fallen by 12%. TASS reports new legislation on "platform economy" may indicate efforts to control online information. Colonelcassad attempting to leverage a captured UAF soldier's testimony to demoralize Ukrainian forces and public regarding mobilization. RUF channels are attempting to discredit UAF air defense claims (Alex Parker Returns), and mocking UAF air defense efforts in Lutsk ("Военкор Котенок"). RUF (TASS) highlighting Moldovan protests possibly as a sign of Western instability or internal opposition to pro-Western governments. RUF "Два майора" sharing memes mocking TCC (military recruitment centers) to undermine UAF mobilization efforts and promoting the idea of "valuable foreign specialists" (likely referring to propagandist Kirill Fedorov) supporting Russian "Cosmic Marines" on the front. RUF channels (Операция Z) disseminating surveys claiming Hungary and Poland view Ukraine as a threat, aiming to sow discord within the EU. Alex Parker Returns's captions such as "Все хорошо" and "Ждем агонию режима из 1000 дронов за ночь. Быть добру!" are part of a psychological operation aimed at projecting confidence and anticipating UAF collapse. Igor Strelkov's commentary on increased UAF drone attacks likely aims to highlight a perceived threat to Russia. Alex Parker Returns also attempting to leverage Yanukovych's birthday to highlight a "wise politician" who was "fooled," likely a veiled criticism of current Ukrainian leadership or a promotion of pro-Russian narratives about Ukraine's past. Russian state media (TASS, Igor Artamonov) promoting patriotic enlistment videos to counter perceived internal dissent and boost recruitment. "Басурин о главном" is posting images with "МЫПОМНИМ" ("WE REMEMBER") implying historical grievances, and an irrelevant educational video about the square root, potentially a filler or distraction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is pushing a new narrative that Lithuania and Finland will produce "banned weapons - anti-personnel mines" for Ukraine, a clear disinformation effort aimed at discrediting NATO allies and Ukraine. "Филолог в засаде" is amplifying messages about RUF supply issues and volunteer efforts, which could be double-edged: boosting morale via volunteerism but also exposing gaps. They are also promoting the ERA upgrades on tanks, highlighting resilience. WarGonzo's post on "GROZA-3" repair is likely a subtle narrative about their EW capabilities. Alex Parker Returns posts a cryptic video about "who is near the Pope congratulating Catholic believers," possibly a veiled attempt to link Ukrainian figures to sensitive religious/geopolitical contexts. Alex Parker Returns also posts images with "Это, безусловно, успех!" and "Смеялся" which are purely sarcastic/trolling efforts to mock UAF. RUF "Операция Z" is disseminating combat footage near Pokrovsk with captions boasting of "burning tanks and NATO equipment" to project RUF success. TASS confirms the death of the 5-year-old child in Kursk, which will be heavily used for propaganda to demonize UAF actions and portray them as terrorists. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" explicitly labels RDK and Ukrainians as "traitors," reinforcing a narrative of internal subversion and external enemies. The video showing body bags on a rusty trailer may be used by RUF to demoralize UAF by showing poor casualty handling. Alex Parker Returns's posts regarding internal security operations in Moscow targeting "natsbol" Mikhail may be part of an internal narrative about controlling dissent and maintaining stability. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" explicitly claims UAF mined bodies of their comrades, a grave accusation for information warfare. TASS reporting on the arrest of the Moldovan Mayor by Romania at Sandu's request could be framed as Western interference or internal political instability. TASS reports that Trump is "less inclined" to give Russia "victory" by pausing military aid to Ukraine, which could be used to sow doubt about US commitment. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС image of a wounded Russian soldier next to a self-made buggy, while meant to mock, highlights the resilience of some RUF personnel despite logistical challenges. The MoD Russia video featuring a UAF POW describing torture by Ukrainian Military Police is a potent information weapon designed to discredit UAF and undermine morale and recruitment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Два майора" has posted a meme featuring a Chinese individual, which is not militarily relevant but could be part of a broader RUF information campaign targeting specific audiences or using humor to influence sentiment. CONFIDENCE: LOW. Poddubny is quoting Boris Johnson, Merz, and Macron about "just fighting", which is likely an RUF narrative to depict Western leaders as aggressive and unwilling to negotiate. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. "НгП раZVедка" mentions "improving negotiation background," which could be an RUF attempt to signal willingness for talks or to shape a narrative around their perceived diplomatic successes. CONFIDENCE: LOW. Alex Parker Returns and Операция Z are promoting the NYT article about Russia's potential to launch over 1000 drones, likely to project overwhelming power. Alex Parker Returns's video showing an armored vehicle covered in what appears to be unexploded UAF FPV drones is an attempt to showcase Russian ingenuity and resilience against UAF drone threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The video posted by МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники discussing the psychological impact of war, particularly for mobilized soldiers, might be part of an internal RUF narrative to acknowledge and manage war-related stress, while also subtly framing it within a "sacrifice" context. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Два майора" is posting images humanizing RUF soldiers by showing them with pets, likely for morale purposes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports that Poland-transferred mercenaries abandoned positions, which is likely an RUF information operation to demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: LOW (due to lack of independent verification). Alex Parker Returns is using photos of civilian cars to mock "Trump Team," indicating a continued use of subtle, non-military imagery for information warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Rybar is using analysis of Western military aid to Ukraine to support an RUF narrative of Ukrainian weakness and Western limitations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad's posts about Ozerny Airfield are likely part of an information campaign to justify future strikes or to claim past successes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ASTRA's amplification of the New York Times report on RUF's future drone production is a key element of RUF's psychological operation to project overwhelming force. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad's report on Yanina Sokolovskaya being added to extremist/terrorist lists serves to demonize perceived enemies and reinforce internal control, acting as a warning to dissenters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reporting on the request for the заочное arrest of "Meduza" founder Timchenko further signals RUF's intent to suppress independent media and control information narratives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Старше Эдды posts about Kazakhstan Defense Minister's visit to Moscow, highlighting his Soviet military background and the importance of Russia as the destination for his first visit. This is an RUF narrative to emphasize strong alliances and shared history. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's map of RUF strikes and accompanying text is a direct information operation to highlight the scale of RUF operations and project strength. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Военкор Котенок's "Главные новости" post is a standard RUF information product aimed at shaping public perception. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Басурин о главном's claim that "West in agony" indicates an RUF information operation to project confidence and exploit perceived Western weakness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns reporting on the deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora from Moscow Oblast and "Два майора" amplifying it, contributes to an RUF narrative of maintaining internal order and controlling ethnic communities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF Counter-Narratives: "Operativny ZSU" and "STERNENKO" highlight the official resumption of US military aid and emphasize the unprecedented number of RUF targets neutralized (741). "RBC-Ukraine" and local administrations focus on RUF strikes on civilian areas and casualties (Khmelnytskyi, Pechenihy, Kherson child fatality, Dnipropetrovsk). "Сили оборони Півдня України" explicitly condemns the child's death as "genocide." UAF channels promote resilience and national unity. Effective use of combat footage for morale boosting (e.g., MiG-29 GBU-39 strike, 30th OMBr drone footage, Presidential Brigade drone video, Operatyvnyi ZSU video of tank engagement). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reporting on corruption cases demonstrates accountability. UAF attacks on Russian Shahed production (Alabuga) framed as actively degrading RUF's military-industrial complex. SBU detaining Chinese spies showcases counter-espionage capabilities. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" highlighting RUF officer losses demonstrates effective counter-propaganda via attrition figures. Calls for energy conservation from "РБК-Україна" are part of a responsible public information campaign. UAF Paratrooper Assault Forces sharing photos of troops holding defenses boosts morale. UAF General Staff actively sharing photos of new recruits and training exercises (e.g., in gas masks) to project readiness and commitment. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is actively pushing messages of strength and resilience ("Strong hand, keen eye, and spirit forged by generations") to counter potential RUF narratives regarding a Kharkiv offensive. UAF is actively debunking Russian "fake news" about children collecting drones in Sumy for money. Oleg Synegubov's public gratitude to rescuers serves as a counter-narrative to RUF's terror tactics, emphasizing resilience and unity. KMVA's collaboration with NGOs for post-strike recovery indicate successful civilian-military cooperation in managing conflict consequences. UAF will need to actively counter the new RUF narrative about UAF mining bodies of their comrades, and the POW torture claims. UAF General Staff's strong message on drone development and scaling capabilities serves as a counter-narrative to RUF's aerial advantage. Zelenskyy's meeting with Kellogg (US Special Envoy) is a key counter-narrative to any RUF attempts to sow doubt about US commitment. Syrsky's statement on drone contributions to overall strikes highlights UAF's offensive capabilities and adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine's report on supersonic missile echo and the Mach cone serves as an educational counter-narrative to public fear around "Kinzhal" missiles, explaining the phenomenon rather than fear-mongering. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Operatyvnyi ZSU's post from the 14th Separate UAV Regiment stating "This summer will be hellishly hot for the enemy!" is a morale-boosting and offensive counter-narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The BUUTUSOV PLUS video of an individual caught in an explosion, if presented as Ukrainian-sourced, demonstrates transparency and the harsh realities of combat, which can act as a counter to RUF triumphalism. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine's report on the driver biting a police officer and being transferred to the TCC may be intended to show that evasion of mobilization will result in consequences. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The Coordination Staff for POWs' outreach to military families serves as a counter-narrative against demoralization, demonstrating state support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about solar power installations serves as a counter-narrative of resilience and self-sufficiency against RUF energy attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. DeepState's photo message promoting Computer Vision Engineers in drone applications acts as a counter-narrative to RUF's perceived technological superiority, highlighting UAF's own advanced capabilities and focus on innovation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Neutral/Other Narratives: Sever.Realii and Janus Putkonen provide alternative reports on Kursk casualties. ASTRA reports on a Wagner convict killed in Ukraine, highlighting internal Russian issues. Sever.Realii reports on internal searches within Russia (e.g., Moscow theater director), which are not directly combat-related but reflect internal Russian dynamics. "Новости Москвы" reporting on eye drop recall is not militarily relevant. ASTRA reports the addition of entrepreneur Areg Shchepikhin to the extremist/terrorist list, which could be seen as a neutral factual report on internal Russian events. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) highlighting Russian Z-blogger Maxim Kalashnikov's comparison of the Afghanistan and Ukraine wars, and the role of Ukrainian drones, acts as an analytical counter-narrative, using Russian sources against themselves. TASS reports on the detention of a Dagestani municipal director due to an infection outbreak, which is a neutral report on domestic issues. TASS reports on internal political discussions regarding procedural issues in Russia. TASS reports on the arrest of an Armenian opposition MP, a neutral report on regional politics. TASS reports Orbán views corruption charges against Von der Leyen as "tip of the iceberg" for EU problems, which is a neutral report on a political opinion. TASS reports the number of people poisoned by water in Dagestan has risen, a neutral report on a civilian health crisis. TASS reports on the arrest of Shvyrkov in Voronezh on fraud charges, a neutral report on internal Russian legal matters. ASTRA is fundraising for salaries, which is not militarily relevant. TASS reports the Moulin Rouge windmill. ASTRA reports the X CEO leaving. TASS reports on mortgage issues impacting birth rates, which is a neutral economic/social report. Alex Parker Returns also reports on Trump's new tariffs, which is a neutral report on US economic policy. "Новости Москвы" reporting on a blue Porsche sports car with advertising is a neutral, civilian-focused report. TASS reports Davankov proposed measures to support self-employed mothers, which is a neutral social policy report. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: Record-setting large-scale aerial attacks on cities will significantly impact civilian morale and create anxiety, compounded by the confirmed civilian fatality in Khmelnytskyi and the child fatality in Kherson, and the mass FPV drone attack on Dobropillya. "Сили оборони Півдня України" explicitly labels the child's death as "genocide," which will fuel outrage and resolve. Calls for electricity conservation will also impact daily life and morale. News regarding official resumption of US military aid and potential EU fund will provide a morale boost. Successful neutralization of 741 RUF targets will be a critical morale booster. Reports of internal corruption may cause some discontent but signal accountability. The successful SBU operation against Chinese spies will boost national confidence. Calls for donations for FPV drones may indicate public engagement but also a perceived gap in official supply. Continued engagement in IT camps for POW rehabilitation indicates a long-term commitment to human capital development. Public observation of reconstruction efforts in Zaporizhzhia (medical facility) will boost civilian resilience. The "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" report, if widely circulated, will likely cause significant public concern regarding the safety and well-being of front-line personnel due to inadequate transport. The incident in Kyiv where a driver bit a police officer during military registration highlights growing public tension and resistance to mobilization efforts. The new Russian disinformation campaign about Ukraine producing anti-personnel mines could cause concern if not swiftly and effectively countered. The visual of the burned UAF pickup with a deceased soldier will be exploited by RUF for demoralization, but for UAF it will likely fuel resolve and a desire for revenge. The video showing body bags on a rusty trailer highlights a severe issue with casualty handling that, if widely known, could significantly impact UAF troop morale and public trust in care for service members. The "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv may cause increased anxiety among civilians in hitherto less-affected regions. The cemetery fire in Donetsk and incident in Dobropillya will cause distress. The news about potential heatwave up to +40 degrees Celsius may impact public comfort and energy consumption. RBC-Ukraine's report on power outages in Sumy will negatively impact local morale. Expert explanation on Kinzhal interception may help manage public fear and expectations. The Coordination Staff for POWs' outreach to families in Lviv Oblast aims to boost morale and trust among military families. Zaporizhzhia solar power installations will foster a sense of self-reliance and progress. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video of soldiers digging and recovering personnel, and the associated caption, suggests both the harsh reality of combat and a commitment to comrades, which can impact morale in complex ways. DeepState's highlight of Computer Vision Engineers may boost morale by showcasing technological sophistication. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Public: State-controlled media will reinforce narratives of successful defense against "Ukrainian aggression" and portray RUF as effectively prosecuting the "special military operation," leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach strike. Claims of widespread draft dodging in Ukraine (Операция Z, Colonelcassad) aim to undermine UAF legitimacy. Calls for donations could indicate popular support or a perceived need to bridge supply gaps. Ban on publishing drone strike information in Pskov indicates efforts to manage public perception. Footage of Russian youth disrespecting the US flag suggests state-sponsored manipulation. TASS reporting on "platform economy" legislation could indicate internal focus on social stability and control. RUF official statements on reduced poppy cultivation in Afghanistan may be an attempt to project positive international image. The content from "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" about rehabilitation centers for addicted servicemen indicates a growing internal social/medical challenge and a likely need for state response. Reports of migrants from India to address skill shortages (Операция Z) could impact public sentiment regarding the labor market and demographic changes. The detention of former officials and the Moscow Art Theater incident suggest increasing internal controls and a potential climate of fear, aiming to suppress dissent. Reports of bailiffs seizing wages of mobilized personnel (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники) will likely generate resentment and impact morale among military families. The focus by "Филолог в засаде" on volunteer efforts for military equipment and medical supplies could serve to boost public morale by demonstrating collective effort, but could also inadvertently highlight state supply gaps. The confirmation of the 5-year-old child's death in Kursk will be used to rally public support for the war and against Ukraine, fueling outrage. The detention of MHAT director Kekhman and adding Areg Shchepikhin to extremist/terrorist lists will reinforce state control and suppress dissent, potentially impacting public discourse and perceived freedom. Putin's instruction to create a "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" could impact public perception regarding immigration and internal control. The ban on Azerbaijani dairy imports could negatively impact consumer choice and create minor discontent. The severe hailstorm in Omsk might cause localized public distress, but is not militarily significant. The opening of rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted war participants aims to address social problems from the war. The "monster tank" propaganda video aims to boost morale. The UAF POW video about torture will be used to generate outrage and support for RUF. The rising number of water poisoning cases in Dagestan will cause localized public distress. The NYT prediction of 1000+ drones per night will be used to project a sense of overwhelming future power and inevitability for Russia. The video of the armored vehicle with anti-FPV drone "armor" will be used to demonstrate RUF's resilience and ingenuity. The discussion on the psychological impact of war for mobilized soldiers highlights an internal issue that RUF is attempting to acknowledge, which could provide some relief to those affected. "Два майора" posting photos humanizing soldiers aims to boost morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The highly emotional "Басурин о главном" video about the child in Kursk will significantly fuel public outrage and support for the war. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The continued suppression of independent media and adding of individuals to extremist lists (Meduza, Yanina Sokolovskaya) will reinforce a climate of fear and self-censorship, impacting public discourse. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Басурин о главном's statement "West in agony" is designed to boost Russian public morale by projecting an image of Western weakness and eventual Russian victory. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora from Moscow Oblast, amplified by Alex Parker Returns and Два майора, could contribute to public sentiment around internal control and national security, though it may also be viewed negatively by some ethnic minorities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The video showing a wounded soldier being evacuated in a motorcycle sidecar, while highlighting rudimentary methods, could also be framed internally as showing dedication and resilience, impacting morale positively in some segments of the Russian public. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Neutral/Other Narratives: Sever.Realii and Janus Putkonen provide alternative reports on Kursk casualties. ASTRA reports on a Wagner convict killed in Ukraine, highlighting internal Russian issues. Sever.Realii reports on internal searches within Russia (e.g., Moscow theater director), which are not directly combat-related but reflect internal Russian dynamics. "Новости Москвы" reporting on eye drop recall is not militarily relevant. ASTRA reports the addition of entrepreneur Areg Shchepikhin to the extremist/terrorist list, which could be seen as a neutral factual report on internal Russian events. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) highlighting Russian Z-blogger Maxim Kalashnikov's comparison of the Afghanistan and Ukraine wars, and the role of Ukrainian drones, acts as an analytical counter-narrative, using Russian sources against themselves. TASS reports on the detention of a Dagestani municipal director due to an infection outbreak, which is a neutral report on domestic issues. TASS reports on internal political discussions regarding procedural issues in Russia. TASS reports on the arrest of an Armenian opposition MP, a neutral report on regional politics. TASS reports Orbán views corruption charges against Von der Leyen as "tip of the iceberg" for EU problems, which is a neutral report on a political opinion. TASS reports the number of people poisoned by water in Dagestan has risen, a neutral report on a civilian health crisis. TASS reports on the arrest of Shvyrkov in Voronezh on fraud charges, a neutral report on internal Russian legal matters. ASTRA is fundraising for salaries, which is not militarily relevant. TASS reports the Moulin Rouge windmill. ASTRA reports the X CEO leaving. TASS reports on mortgage issues impacting birth rates, which is a neutral economic/social report. Alex Parker Returns also reports on Trump's new tariffs, which is a neutral report on US economic policy. "Новости Москвы" reporting on a blue Porsche sports car with advertising is a neutral, civilian-focused report. TASS reports Davankov proposed measures to support self-employed mothers, which is a neutral social policy report. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: The US Department of State has officially stated the resumption of weapon supplies to Ukraine. Bloomberg reports the EU is considering a 100 billion Euro fund. Poland's heightened air defense readiness remains a positive signal. President Zelenskyy's visit to Rome (meeting Pope Francis, Italian President Mattarella, and Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg) indicates continued high-level diplomatic engagement. Pope Francis offers Vatican as a venue for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Kharkiv Oblast Governor's discussions with Switzerland reinforce ongoing bilateral support efforts. ECHR ruling against Russia on human rights and MH17. France's Ministry of Defense rejects Russia's "demilitarization" demands for Ukraine, demonstrating continued Western resolve. Germany's intention to procure hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks for Bundeswehr, as reported by TASS, signals continued NATO rearmament and resolve. US Army plans to quadruple Patriot missile purchases, indicating strong long-term support for UAF air defense. Zelenskyy's meeting with US Special Envoy Kellogg is a positive diplomatic development aimed at securing continued support. STERNENKO reports US Senate Majority Leader John Thune states new sanctions against Russia may be adopted this month, indicating continued pressure on Russia. Zelenskiy / Official's video confirming meeting with Italian President Mattarella highlights continued high-level diplomatic support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Engagements: Ukrainian Foreign Minister's discussions on diplomatic missions indicate ongoing efforts to secure support. RUF sources attempting to exacerbate diplomatic conflicts. TASS reporting on the German Embassy's apology for a map error demonstrates RUF efforts to leverage diplomatic incidents. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan conducting joint UAV exercises without Russia's involvement highlights Russia's isolation. TASS reports Moskal'kova's letter to Pope Francis regarding Russian citizen repatriation. TASS reports Russia's Emergency Situations Minister becoming head of the International Civil Defense Organization, a diplomatic gain for Russia. TASS reports Belousov's talks with Kazakhstan Defense Minister on military cooperation, indicating Russia's efforts to maintain alliances. Pakistan exploring direct rail links with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signifies Russia's efforts to circumvent sanctions and build new economic ties. Slovakia's continued blocking of EU sanctions against Russia is a significant diplomatic setback for Ukraine, as confirmed by "Операция Z" and TASS. Hungarian PM Orbán's call for Ursula von der Leyen's resignation (Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights) highlights internal EU divisions that RUF may exploit. The newly announced mutual visa cancellation agreement between Russia and Oman signifies Russia's efforts to expand non-Western diplomatic and economic ties. The Mol oil company's interest in using Odesa port (Bloomberg via STERNENKO) is a significant economic and diplomatic development, indicating continued Ukrainian relevance as a trade hub and a potential weakening of Russian energy leverage. TASS reports Romanian authorities have banned the entry of Chisinau Mayor Ceban at the request of Moldovan President Sandu, highlighting regional political dynamics that could be exploited. TASS reports Russia has banned imports of Azerbaijani dairy products from certain producers, citing refusal of inspection. This is an economic-diplomatic move. TASS reports Orbán's view on Von der Leyen's corruption charges indicates ongoing political maneuvering within the EU that Russia will exploit. TASS reports Orbán stating Ukraine and the EU lost the armed conflict with Russia, which is a significant anti-Ukrainian sentiment from an EU leader. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports Estonia may block the 18th sanctions package against Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Moldova starting August 1st. This is a significant economic and geopolitical development that could influence regional alignment and potentially create new pressure points for Ukraine's allies. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Старше Эдды's report on Kazakhstan Defense Minister's visit to Moscow emphasizes strong military-diplomatic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, highlighting Russia's efforts to maintain influence in Central Asia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns and Два майора reporting on the deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora from Moscow Oblast, while an internal Russian event, has diplomatic implications regarding Russia's treatment of ethnic minorities and its relations with Azerbaijan. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in the Donbas (Chasiv Yar main effort, increasing pressure on Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk, and continued local advances like Tolsoty and Siversk) and persist with localized pressure in Kupyansk and Kharkiv Oblast via shelling and probing actions, including FPV drone attacks, mass FPV drone attacks on urban areas like Dobropillya, and KABs on Sumy Oblast and now repeated KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast, including the border areas with Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk. Offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction (Lyptsi, Vovchansk) will continue, with attempts to consolidate gains, as indicated by new tactical maps. RUF will maintain pressure in Krasnolimanskoye direction and near Pokrovsk. Expect continued RUF targeting of UAF temporary deployment points (e.g., Yablunivka) and counter-battery efforts in Zaporizhzhia. RUF may attempt to exploit the identified concentration of UAF troops in Konstantinovka. RUF will continue efforts to breach UAF strongholds in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Increased Frequency and Volume of Aerial Strikes with High-Value Munitions & Indiscriminate Use: RUF will likely maintain a high frequency and volume of combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets (including military airfields, logistics, energy, and population centers, particularly in Western Ukraine). The record-setting 728 drones and 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk indicates a continued reliance on this tactic to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Expect continued high-speed targets towards key urban/military areas like Chuhuiv/Kharkiv, and further strikes on logistical hubs such as Ozerny Airfield. The killing of the child in Kherson and now the 5-year-old in Kursk indicates a likely continued, if not amplified, indiscriminate targeting of civilian populations to exert psychological pressure. The "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv signals RUF's intent to diversify drone strike patterns and targets. Expect continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, as seen in Dobropillya and the Kherson train station. UAV activity in Chernihiv Oblast, particularly Shaheds, indicates continued northern strike/reconnaissance and intent to strike Chernihiv city. New air raid alerts for Kyiv and surrounding oblasts due to Shahed threat indicate continued intent to strike deep into Ukraine's capital region. RUF will continue targeting UAF drone C2 nodes, as seen in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations to highlight UAF battlefield setbacks, amplify narratives of internal divisions (e.g., draft dodging, "female mobilization," captured soldier testimonies, alleged 230,000 UAF deserters, and civil-military tensions related to mobilization, including the Kyiv incident of the driver biting a police officer), and demoralize Ukrainian society, specifically using incidents like the Kursk beach attack and the Kherson/Kursk child fatalities, and the POW torture claims. Expect continued focus on alleged internal Ukrainian issues and "successful" counter-terrorism/sabotage operations within Russia, leading to more stringent information control measures (e.g., Pskov ban, detention of officials/bloggers, searches at MHAT Gorky director's home, adding individuals to extremist/terrorist lists like Yanina Sokolovskaya, and "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" initiative, and the demand for заочное arrest of "Meduza" founder Timchenko). RUF will likely amplify the narrative of economic strain on mobilized personnel's families. A new disinformation campaign regarding Ukraine producing "banned" anti-personnel mines is likely to be amplified. RUF will continue attempts to discredit UAF air defense claims. RUF will heavily push the narrative that UAF mined bodies of their comrades. The "monster tank" propaganda will continue to be used. RUF will continue to use narratives from Western media about their drone production to project strength and inevitability. Expect continued efforts to humanize RUF soldiers for internal morale. RUF will leverage statements by Western leaders (like Orbán's latest) to highlight perceived Western disunity and Ukraine's losing position. The highly emotional "Басурин о главном" video featuring the deceased child from Kursk will be heavily used for propaganda. RUF will continue to exploit internal Russian incidents, such as the deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora, for internal security messaging. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to seek and strengthen diplomatic and economic ties with non-Western countries to mitigate the effects of sanctions and reduce international isolation. They will also use diplomatic channels to promote their narratives, such as the letter from the human rights ombudsman to the Pope. Expect continued efforts to exert economic pressure via trade policies (e.g., Azerbaijan dairy ban) and exploit regional political instability (e.g., Moldova, including Trump's new tariffs on Moldovan imports). RUF will continue to leverage analyses of Western military-industrial capacity to undermine confidence in Ukraine's long-term sustainability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone Enhancement: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability (e.g., Kontakt-1 ERA) and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness, such as aerial relays to extend range and maintain communications. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Inadequate Casualty Handling: RUF will likely continue to exhibit inadequate and inhumane casualty evacuation and handling procedures due to logistical constraints or overwhelmed systems, as evidenced by the video of body bags on a rusty trailer and the motorcycle sidecar evacuation. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Addressing Social Challenges from War: RUF will likely continue to establish social programs, like rehabilitation centers for drug-addicted veterans, to manage the internal societal costs of the war, potentially for propaganda and control. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, or Southern Donetsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• IMMEDIATE (0-12 hours): Continued high-intensity air defense engagements across Ukraine, particularly near Chuhuiv/Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to new KAB launches, and in Chernihiv Oblast (Shaheds towards Chernihiv). New air raid alerts for Kyiv and surrounding oblasts due to Shahed threat. UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving US aid situation. RUF tactical aviation activity on the eastern and southeastern direction suggests potential for immediate airstrikes. The fire in Zugres may require immediate response. UAF decision on public messaging regarding Ukrenergo's electricity conservation calls and the upcoming heatwave. UAF will need to immediately counter the "anti-personnel mine" disinformation campaign and the narrative around the Kursk child fatality, the alleged mining of bodies, and the POW torture claims. RUF MOD's daily summary will be released, potentially setting new information narratives. UAF decision on how to address the apparent issues with casualty evacuation logistics. UAF Air Force alerts for drones entering Ukrainian airspace indicate immediate defensive actions required. A UAV moving south in Chernihiv Oblast requires immediate monitoring and potential interdiction. The situation regarding Slovakia and Estonia possibly blocking EU sanctions requires immediate diplomatic attention. Power outages in Sumy require immediate assessment and response. The FPV drone attack on Dobropillya requires immediate assessment of civilian damage and potential for future strikes. The unidentified aerial target in Poltava Oblast requires immediate monitoring and potential interdiction.
• SHORT-TERM (12-72 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas, with potential for further advances in Siversk and Krasnolimanskoye, and continued pressure near Pokrovsk, particularly around the large UAF grouping in Konstantinovka. Continued offensive operations around Lyptsi and Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. Continued UAF cross-border drone activity. Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions, particularly in response to high-volume/high-value RUF strikes. Rapid integration of newly confirmed US aid, including potential Patriot procurements. Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome will inform mid-term planning. The impact of calls for energy conservation will become apparent. UAF decision on how to address the critical gap in protected personnel transport at the tactical edge. RUF will likely consolidate gains in Dobropillya and potentially expand FPV drone attacks on other urban civilian areas.
• MID-TERM (72 hours - 1 week): The precise nature and timing of any new US and EU aid will become clearer. Critical for UAF to adapt its strategy. RUF will continue to adapt to UAF drone capabilities, potentially implementing aerial relays. UAF attacks on RUF drone production facilities will continue to impact long-term RUF capabilities. RUF efforts to secure new partnerships (Pakistan rail, Kazakhstan defense talks, Oman visa waiver) could see further developments. The internal political and social dynamics in Russia (migrant labor, cultural crackdowns, issues with mobilized personnel's families, internal security crackdowns extending to cultural figures and independent media) could influence long-term force generation. Increased RUF focus on electromagnetic weapons (Alabuga project) suggests a mid-term threat to UAF drone superiority. RUF will likely attempt to capitalize on the "anti-personnel mine" narrative internationally. The Mol oil company's interest in Odesa port represents a mid-term economic development. RUF will likely attempt to solidify control over newly captured areas like Tolsoty. RUF will continue to implement social programs for veterans. The impact of Trump's tariffs on Moldova will become clearer, potentially influencing regional dynamics.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. US/EU Military and Financial Aid Delivery Timelines & Composition:
   • GAP: Precise delivery timelines for key US systems/munitions and implementation timelines for proposed EU fund remain unclear. Specific types and quantities of newly released US aid need confirmation. Impact of Slovakia's and Estonia's blocking of sanctions/aid. Clarity on the US Army's plan to quadruple Patriot missile purchases (timeline, funding, and impact on UAF deliveries) and the volume of interceptors pledged.
   • CR: Prioritize HUMINT, OSINT, and IMINT to ascertain precise status and immediate/long-term impact. Clarify US official position on aid continuity and EU consensus.
2. RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory after Record Attack:
   • GAP: Comprehensive assessment of RUF's current production rates, remaining stockpiles, and supply chain resilience for missiles and UAVs after expending 728 drones and 13 missiles (including 4 Kinzhals). Impact of losing 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems on RUF production/deployment. Effectiveness of UAF strikes on Alabuga. Further details on RUF "Alabuga" (electromagnetic weapons) project development and deployment timelines. Status of RUF aerial relay development for drones. Verification of RUF claims of 1000+ drones per night by autumn.
   • CR: Utilize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT to track RUF defense industrial base output. Assess sustainability of high-volume attacks. Monitor RUF TOS-1/2 production. Track R&D and deployment of RUF electromagnetic weapons and aerial drone relays. Verify RUF drone production claims via satellite imagery and supply chain analysis.
3. RUF Ground Reserve Commitment and Intent (Kharkiv/Belgorod) and Tank Survivability Programs:
   • GAP: Precise size, composition, and readiness of Russian grouping of forces in Belgorod remains unconfirmed. Ultimate strategic intent unclear (limited buffer zone vs. full-scale Kharkiv assault). Veracity of captured RUF soldier's unit information. The true scale and effectiveness of the Kontakt-1 ERA upgrade program for RUF tanks (and its reliance on volunteer efforts) needs independent verification. The true operational capability of the "monster tank" or other similar propaganda vehicles. The effectiveness of improvised anti-FPV drone armor on RUF vehicles. The accuracy of RUF reporting on UAF troop concentrations in Konstantinovka. The exact composition and objectives of RUF forces operating in the Kharkiv direction (Lyptsi, Vovchansk) needs continued monitoring.
   • CR: Prioritize strategic ISR (satellite, long-range UAVs), SIGINT, and HUMINT to monitor force movements and logistical preparations. Confirm nature of high-speed targets towards Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Debrief captured RUF personnel for unit identification and deployment. Utilize IMINT and OSINT to assess the prevalence and effectiveness of Kontakt-1 ERA upgrades and improvised armor. Assess the operational impact of any new RUF "super-weapons" or propaganda vehicles. Verify RUF claims on UAF troop numbers in Konstantinovka through all-source analysis. Monitor Kharkiv front for commitment of second-echelon forces.
4. UAF Unit-Level Ammunition/Artillery Shortages and Personnel Transport/Casualty Evacuation Vulnerabilities:
   • GAP: Veracity and scope of individual unit reports regarding critical ammunition shortages need urgent verification. Full scope and impact of vulnerable personnel transport methods (UAZiks, Nivas, motorcycles, motorcycle sidecars) on front-line units, including specific attrition rates. Detailed assessment of UAF casualty evacuation and handling procedures, particularly given the visual evidence of inadequate methods (body bags on trailer, motorcycle sidecar).
   • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (front-line reports, unit intelligence) and logistical SIGINT to confirm extent and nature of shortfalls. Conduct detailed debriefs of personnel involved in exposed transport. Verify casualty evacuation protocols and resource availability via HUMINT and IMINT (if possible).
5. Assessment of UAF Cross-Border Drone Strike Effectiveness and Impact & Counter-Disinformation on Mine Production/Kursk/Mined Bodies/POW Torture:
   • GAP: Clear assessment of actual impact of UAF cross-border drone operations on Russian military/civilian infrastructure, including extent of civilian casualties (Kursk) for UAF verification. Impact of RUF counter-UAV measures on UAF operations. The effectiveness of the new RUF disinformation campaign regarding "banned" anti-personnel mines needs to be tracked. The full extent of the RUF exploitation of the Kursk child fatality. Verification of RUF claims of UAF mining bodies of comrades. Verification of RUF claims of UAF torture of POWs. The veracity of RUF claims regarding Polish mercenaries abandoning positions in Sumy.
   • CR: Leverage OSINT and HUMINT to verify and assess battle damage, economic disruption, and civilian casualties. Assess effectiveness of RUF counter-drone measures and UAF adaptations. Monitor and analyze the spread and impact of the anti-personnel mine disinformation. Proactively monitor RUF media for amplification of the Kursk child fatality and prepare pre-emptive counter-narratives. Conduct forensic analysis on RUF claims of UAF mining bodies and POW torture. Verify RUF claims on mercenaries.
6. Full Exploitation of Captured Chinese Spies Intelligence:
   • GAP: Extent of information obtained by Chinese spies regarding "Neptune" missile system and broader intelligence effort.
   • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (interrogation), SIGINT, and FORENSIC intelligence to determine full scope of compromise.
7. Assessment of RUF Intent and Effectiveness Regarding UAF Use of Ground Robotic Platforms:
   • GAP: RUF response to demonstrated UAF UGV use and veracity of "capitulation" claims.
   • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (captured RUF personnel debriefs, UAF unit reports), OSINT, and IMINT to confirm tactical outcomes, psychological effects, and RUF counter-measures.
8. Verification of RUF Officer Losses and Personnel Status, and RUF Tactical Communications (Starlink) and Social Challenges:
   • GAP: Independent verification and deeper analysis of the reported 6606 RUF officer "demobilizations" since 2022 to confirm the impact on RUF command quality and operational effectiveness. Verification of Colonelcassad's claim of 230,000 UAF deserters and actual RUF personnel numbers and morale, including the impact of bailiffs seizing mobilized personnel's wages. The extent of RUF reliance on and access to Starlink terminals needs further assessment, as does their source of acquisition. The scale and impact of drug addiction among RUF veterans and the effectiveness of new rehabilitation programs. The overall psychological state and morale of RUF personnel, particularly mobilized soldiers, based on current discussions.
   • CR: Cross-reference OSINT data with HUMINT from captured RUF personnel and defectors. Analyze RUF command structure changes for evidence of degradation. Prioritize HUMINT (captured RUF soldiers, defectors) and SIGINT to assess actual personnel numbers, desertion rates, and morale on both sides. Analyze internal RUF documents if available. Investigate Starlink acquisition and usage patterns by RUF. Monitor open sources for further information on social issues stemming from the war and psychological impact on soldiers.
9. Detailed Analysis of Russian Internal Security Crackdowns and Their Impact:
   • GAP: Full scope and purpose of recent detentions of former officials, bloggers, and actions at the Moscow Art Theater, and the addition of individuals to extremist/terrorist lists, including the case of Yanina Sokolovskaya. Linkage to military operations or broader political control. The operational implications of Putin's "Digital Profile of a Foreign Citizen" initiative. The extent of internal political maneuvering within the RUF government, including the case of "Meduza" founder Timchenko and the deportation of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora from Moscow Oblast.
   • CR: Utilize OSINT and HUMINT to track, verify, and analyze internal Russian security operations. Assess impact on dissent, public morale, and political stability. Monitor implementation of "Digital Profile" and its impact on foreign nationals and internal control. Monitor Russian state media for signs of internal political shifts.
10. Assessment of Mykolaiv Drone Attack Pattern and Chernihiv UAV Activity and Poltava/Kirovohrad Aerial Targets:
    • GAP: Is the "atypical morning drone attack" on Mykolaiv a one-off event or the start of a new RUF targeting pattern/tactic for the region? What is the specific intent of the UAV detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast moving south, specifically the Shaheds towards Chernihiv city, and the new Shahed threats to Kyiv and surrounding oblasts? What is the nature and intent of the unidentified aerial target in Poltava Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast?
    • CR: Prioritize SIGINT and IMINT to monitor for repeat patterns of drone activity in Mykolaiv and Southern Oblasts, including launch locations and flight paths. Track the Chernihiv UAV's flight path and potential targets, specifically confirming intent for Chernihiv city and Kyiv. Track Poltava/Kirovohrad aerial targets.
11. Impact of Civilian Incidents in Contested Areas and Civilian Infrastructure Targeting:
    • GAP: The exact cause and military relevance of incidents like the cemetery fire in Donetsk and the chaos in Dobropillya need clarification. The full extent of damage and casualties from the mass FPV drone attack on Dobropillya. The cause of the Sumy explosion and power outages. Further details on the RUF claims regarding Ozerny Airfield and its potential as a target. The effectiveness of local resilience measures like solar power installations in Zaporizhzhia against sustained RUF attacks.
    • CR: Utilize OSINT, IMINT, and local HUMINT to determine the cause of the incidents and their potential relation to hostilities. Investigate the cause of the Sumy explosion and the extent of power grid damage. Continuously monitor Ozerny Airfield for RUF targeting and intent. Assess the impact of RUF strikes on newly implemented energy resilience measures. Conduct detailed BDA on Dobropillya.
12. Analysis of Regional Geopolitical Impact (Moldova/Trump Tariffs):
    • GAP: The full implications of Trump's announced tariffs on Moldova for regional stability, trade routes impacting Ukraine, and broader Western cohesion.
    • CR: Monitor international economic and diplomatic reporting, track reactions from Moldova and the EU, and assess potential secondary effects on Ukrainian logistics or aid.
13. Verification of RUF Counter-UAV Measures and UAF Adaptation to Computer Vision:
    • GAP: Detailed analysis of RUF's ability to identify and target UAF 'Baba-Yaga' drones, drone repeaters, and drone C2 nodes. Further information on UAF's Computer Vision Engineers and their specific applications in drone operations.
    • CR: Analyze captured RUF drone footage and debrief captured RUF personnel for insights into their counter-UAV capabilities and targeting priorities. Obtain further details on UAF's Computer Vision programs via HUMINT or OSINT.

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Air Defense Munition Resupply and Optimization: Prioritize and expedite resupply of air defense munitions, especially for Patriot systems, given the unprecedented volume and lethality of recent RUF aerial attacks. Implement dynamic allocation strategy, with particular attention to areas under consistent high-speed target alerts (e.g., Chuhuiv/Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk) and critical civilian centers, and the newly identified border region of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts for KAB launches, and Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast. Expedite delivery of mobile air defense systems (e.g., mobile fire groups) for increased flexibility and survivability. Investigate potential for US Patriot procurement plans to fast-track deliveries to Ukraine. Maintain vigilance for UAVs in northern oblasts, including Chernihiv, and adjust air defense posture accordingly, specifically reinforcing defenses for Chernihiv city and Kyiv, and monitoring targets in Poltava/Kirovohrad.
   • Action: Coordinate with international partners for emergency air defense munition deliveries. Adjust engagement parameters. Scale up domestic production and "drone-interceptor" programs. Maintain readiness for northern UAV threats and reinforce Chernihiv/Kyiv air defense.
   • POC: Air Force Command, Logistics Command, G3/5.
2. Reinforce Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kamenske/Southern Donetsk/Siversk/Krasnolimanskoye with Anti-Armor and Counter-Assault Capabilities, and Address Ammunition and Personnel Transport Shortages: Recognize Chasiv Yar as main RUF effort, with Siversk and Krasnolimanskoye as secondary, emerging vectors. Prioritize immediate allocation of ATGMs, MANPADS, and FPV drones to units defending these critical sectors, especially given the reported concentration of UAF troops in Konstantinovka. Expedite delivery of artillery and mortar rounds, addressing confirmed unit-level shortfalls. Implement urgent measures to provide protected and secure personnel transport for front-line rotations and movements to mitigate high attrition. Leverage UGV successes and fiber optic drone technology. Continue and enhance counter-battery operations in active sectors like Zaporizhzhia. Immediately investigate and rectify the inadequate casualty evacuation and handling procedures, providing appropriate resources and training to ensure dignity and preserve morale. Prioritize anti-tank capabilities given the continued presence of RUF armored formations. Reinforce Kharkiv front defenses, particularly around Lyptsi and Vovchansk, based on recent RUF advances.
   • Action: Conduct urgent resupply of ATGM and FPV drone munitions. Reinforce with specialized anti-armor teams. Implement anti-UAV measures along supply routes. Investigate and rectify ammunition and secure transport shortfalls. Scale up UGV deployment and fiber optic drone integration. Develop and deploy robust counter-drone measures for personnel transport routes. Continue to prioritize ammunition for counter-battery fire. Allocate specialized vehicles and equipment for casualty evacuation and handling, and reinforce relevant training.
   • POC: Ground Forces Command, Logistics Command, G2, Medical Command.
3. Execute Pre-emptive Deep Strikes on Belgorod Concentrated Forces and RUF Military-Industrial Complex, and Counter Emerging EW Threats: Execute targeted strikes against Russian artillery positions, C2 nodes, and troop concentrations in Belgorod Oblast to disrupt any impending offensive. Simultaneously, continue and expand targeting of RUF military-industrial complex facilities, specifically those involved in Shahed drone production (e.g., Alabuga), and assess opportunities to target R&D for advanced systems like electromagnetic weapons. Utilize available air assets for precision strikes against high-value targets (e.g., MiG-29 GBU-39 strikes, and Ozerny Airfield if intel confirms equipment concentration). Prioritize targeting of RUF mobile EW systems and any aerial relay platforms for drones. Maintain vigilance and counter RUF tactical aviation activity in the southeast. Continue to target RUF logistical infrastructure, particularly along newly active routes like those impacting Kursk. Target RUF FPV drone launch sites and C2 nodes, particularly those engaged in mass urban attacks like in Dobropillya. Target RUF drone C2 nodes in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
   • Action: Authorize and plan long-range strike missions using available assets. Prioritize targets identified by ISR, including Ozerny Airfield. Identify and target further vulnerabilities in RUF drone supply chains and advanced weapons development. Develop and deploy systems to counter RUF EW capabilities and potential aerial drone relays. Monitor and interdict RUF tactical aviation sorties.
   • POC: General Staff, Operational Commands, Air Force Command.
4. Proactively Manage Public and International Messaging on US/EU Aid and Air Defense Successes, and Counter RUF Disinformation: Develop clear, consistent, and proactive messaging regarding official resumption of US military aid and potential EU 100 billion Euro fund. Critically, highlight the successful neutralization of 741 RUF aerial targets, including specifics like the Sumy Oblast mobile fire group successes and the SSO UA_REG TEAM's neutralization of the "Zemledelie" system. Publicly condemn RUF's indiscriminate drone attacks, particularly the civilian fatality in Pechenihy and the killing of the one-year-old child in Kherson, and the 5-year-old in Kursk, and the mass FPV drone attack on Dobropillya, using these facts to rally international support and counter RUF narratives. Counter Russian disinformation campaigns with verified facts and strong condemnations, specifically addressing false narratives about Ukraine producing "banned" anti-personnel mines, UAF "draft dodging," alleged mass desertions, and unit morale, and highlighting civil-military cohesion despite challenges. Emphasize attrition of RUF officer corps. Actively counter RUF narratives attempting to sow discord by highlighting internal issues (e.g., TCC memes, tension over mobilization, the Kyiv driver incident) and the false claim of UAF mining bodies of comrades, and the POW torture claims. Address head-on concerns about personnel safety and transport and the dignified handling of casualties. Leverage engagements like Zelenskyy's meeting with Pope Francis and Kellogg to underscore international support and the pursuit of peace. Actively promote positive developments like Mol's interest in Odesa port, framing it as Ukrainian economic resilience. Actively counter RUF propaganda regarding overwhelming future drone capabilities and effective improvised armor. Proactively highlight Western unity despite individual member state actions (e.g., Slovakia, Estonia). Provide nuanced explanations for air defense outcomes, as seen in the Kinzhal explanation for Lutsk. Promote local energy resilience efforts like the solar installations in Zaporizhzhia, and highlight efforts to restore power in Sumy. Publicize efforts to support military families, such as the POW Coordination Staff meetings. Highlight UAF advancements in AI/ML for drone applications, such as Computer Vision Engineers, as a counter-narrative to RUF perceived technological superiority.
   • Action: Conduct press briefings and public statements highlighting international support and UAF air defense effectiveness. Immediately refute false RUF claims. Develop rapid response team for disinformation. Ensure public awareness of veteran support and POW rehabilitation efforts. Implement clear public messaging on energy conservation and coping with heatwave. Engage international partners to amplify counter-disinformation efforts regarding anti-personnel mines and civilian casualties. Proactively address issues of casualty handling to maintain public and military morale.
   • POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense.
5. Strengthen Counter-Espionage and Critical Technology Protection: Following the successful SBU operation, immediately conduct a comprehensive review of security protocols for all critical military technologies, particularly missile systems like "Neptune." Increase vigilance against foreign intelligence collection efforts. Continue efforts to recover illegally obtained state funds.
   • Action: Implement enhanced security measures around military research and production facilities. Conduct thorough background checks. Collaborate with international partners.
   • POC: Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Ministry of Defense, Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU), Prosecutor General's Office.
6. Investigate and Address Customs Irregularities and Internal Tensions: Conduct a thorough investigation into the ongoing large-scale searches at customs in three Ukrainian regions. Identify any systemic issues leading to corruption or security breaches at border crossings. Simultaneously, proactively address any rising internal tensions related to mobilization (e.g., reported incidents like the driver biting a police officer) through clear communication, legal guidance, and ensuring accountability to maintain public trust and morale.
   • Action: Provide full support to SBU and OPG investigations. Implement immediate reforms at affected customs points to enhance transparency and accountability. Develop public awareness campaigns to clarify mobilization laws and rights. Establish clear channels for addressing grievances related to military registration.
   • POC: SBU, Office of the Prosecutor General (OPG), Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Interior, General Staff.

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END OF REPORT