Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
HomeMapNewsMilitary PulseSituation ReportsDaily ReportsList ViewVideosCyber Threats
Sign In
Contact Support
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-09 09:26:35Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-09 08:56:26Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 090925Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk): RUF continues pressure, reportedly pushing UAF from northwestern outskirts of Kupyansk. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports RUF strikes on Kharkiv city and 8 settlements over the past day, including a damaged combine harvester. This confirms continued RUF shaping operations and targeting of civilian infrastructure in the Kharkiv direction. OTU “Kharkiv” reports on the current situation in its operational zone as of morning 09.07.2025. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kharkiv Oblast Governor, Oleh Syniehubov, engaged in discussions with Switzerland regarding security, recovery, and development for Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued focus on long-term stability and resilience despite ongoing threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk): RUF ("Voenkory Russkoy Vesny") claim a UAF counterattack with tanks and motorcycles near Bilaya Gora-Dyleyevka was repelled. This confirms continued active UAF counter-operations in the heavily contested Toretsk sector. TASS reports RUF command claims UAF is sustaining positions at "height near Petrovsky in LNR," indicating continued localized fighting for key terrain. A new captured RUF soldier from 163rd Tank Regiment, taken by UAF 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade on the Toretsk direction near Poltavka, provides insights into RUF unit movements from Ocheretino to Chasiv Yar and then to the front line, detailing minimal supplies and harsh conditions. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms ongoing fighting at Petrovsky (LNR), stating UAF command disregards losses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka): RUF "WarGonzo" map and text indicate continued pressure on Chasiv Yar, with possible incremental gains on the eastern outskirts, consistent with RUF main effort. New RUF video from "Воин DV" shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying a UAF vehicle attempting personnel rotation near Karl Marx, indicating continued targeted interdiction of UAF logistics/personnel in proximity to the Chasiv Yar axis. UAF unit WORMBUSTERS 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madya" conducted a successful drone strike on an RUF military vehicle (truck/personnel carrier with 'Z' marking) on the Pokrovsk direction, resulting in its destruction by fire and apparent personnel casualties. UAF 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade FPV drone operators are actively engaging RUF infantry and armored vehicles near Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad reports aerial battles over Chasiv Yar, with RUF drones destroying UAF UAVs. RUF source Colonelcassad reports soldiers from a UAV group in the Pokrovskoye direction are requesting assistance for reconnaissance, assault group accompaniment, and bombing operations. This indicates continued RUF drone reliance in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS video claims RUF FPV-drone units from "Rubicon" center destroyed a UAF pickup truck in Konstantinovka. RUF source "Два майора" is actively fundraising for assault troops on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating ongoing RUF operations here. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (Butusov Plus) and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report an abandoned and disabled Russian armored vehicle ("Frankenstein" / "moving shed") near Konstantinovka in Kramatorsk district, Donetsk Oblast, indicating a failed RUF assault and loss of a combat asset. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Colonelcassad (RUF source) video shows a Russian artillery crew operating a 2A65 'Msta-B' towed howitzer, indicating ongoing artillery operations in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Poddubny (RUF source) claims 144th Motor Rifle Division is advancing. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF claim).
  • Donetsk Oblast (Kamyševaha): Poddubny (RUF source) video claims destruction of a UAF T-64 tank near Kamyševaha (Southern Donetsk direction) by an RUF strike UAV. This indicates continued RUF use of precision strikes against UAF armor. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF claim).
  • Donetsk Oblast (Tolsoty): RUF source "Воин DV" claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated the village of Tolsoty (DPR). The accompanying video shows aerial reconnaissance footage with explosions, burning vehicles, and a Russian flag displayed in a damaged settlement. RUF source "Z комитет + карта СВО" also shows mapping for the area. TASS and "Военкор Котенок" also confirm the Russian MoD claim of liberating Tolsoty. "Операция Z" also shows map and states RUF "Vostok" assault groups liberated the settlement. This indicates RUF offensive operations in the Southern Donetsk direction (Novopavlovsk direction as per "Z комитет"). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF claim, video HIGH on RUF reporting).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three civilians injured in Polohivskyi District, and a woman wounded with homes damaged in Stepnohirska community due to RUF attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration reports a married couple suffered injuries in Stepnohirska community and issued an "ATTENTION" alert at 0844Z. This highlights ongoing RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure in the south. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "Два майора" report activity on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" specifically fundraising for DJI Mavic 3 Pro drones and thermal imagers. RUF aerial video shows aftermath of attack on structure on Zaporizhzhia front. RUF "WarGonzo" posts video showing Russian VDV forces engaging UAF near Kamenske, with aerial views of destroyed buildings and ongoing fires, confirming continued intense fighting in the Zaporizhzhia direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration announced "All Clear" from air raid at 0840Z and at 0909Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF Southern Defense Forces report successful drone strikes by their UAVs on Russian artillery pieces in the Zaporizhzhia direction, causing them to burn. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: A private house in Khmelnytskyi district damaged from an overnight RUF aerial attack. Confirms RUF deep strikes impacting civilian infrastructure in western Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Volyn Oblast (Lutsk): Regional military administration reports approximately 50 RUF Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and 5 missiles in Volyn airspace overnight, with Lutsk being the main target. Mayor confirms this as the most massive attack on Lutsk to date, specifically stating 4 Kinzhals and 1 cruise missile hit Lutsk. "РБК-Україна" publishes photos from the State Emergency Service (DSNS) showing damage in Lutsk from the "massive attack." ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU photo/video messages confirm firefighters liquidating fires at a private enterprise and garage cooperative in Lutsk after the missile attack, and show aftermath images of building damage. Colonelcassad also reports on this attack, confirming Lutsk as the primary target. This signifies a major RUF aerial assault targeting deep into western Ukraine, likely targeting an airfield as per "РБК-Україна". CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Colonelcassad provides additional reporting on the night strikes. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on the combined attack, noting missile and Shahed movements. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Zelenskyy's office stated that the Lutsk attack was "demonstrative," emphasizing its intent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian air defenders successfully destroyed 17 RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This indicates continued RUF aerial activity in central-eastern Ukraine and effective UAF air defense response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kyiv Oblast (Trebukhiv/Brovary): "РБК-Україна" reports a large fire in Trebukhiv, Kyiv Oblast, resulting from an overnight attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a woman was injured and hospitalized in Brovary due to RUF strikes, with total injured now at two in Kyiv Oblast. This indicates continued RUF targeting of civilian/infrastructure targets in the Kyiv region. RBU-Ukraine confirms active firefighting still ongoing. RUF source "Операция Z" also posts videos and photos of widespread destruction from overnight strikes across Ukraine, aligning with UAF reports of damage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Video shows DSNS battling large fire in what appears to be industrial building. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: "РБК-Україна" reports fires in Zhytomyr Oblast due to a massive RUF attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA photos confirm damage to production premises of a carpentry workshop and outbuildings. This confirms deep strikes targeting civilian/infrastructure targets in central Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an RUF reconnaissance UAV detected in Mykolaiv Oblast and engagement measures are being taken. This indicates continued RUF ISR efforts in southern Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports ballistic missile strike on Baratovka (Mykolaiv Oblast) and a hit in the former Snihurivka district, indicating continued RUF missile activity in the south. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAV on east Mykolaiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Territory (Bryansk/Moscow Oblasts): RUF Ministry of Defense claims 86 UAF aircraft-type UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. Specifically, Moscow-based sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions from "unknown drones" in Moscow Oblast, including Zelenograd. New video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" captioned "💥Гучний світанок у Московській області" showing flashes/smoke reinforces UAF cross-border activity. This indicates sustained and widespread UAF cross-border drone activity against Russian targets, including potentially sensitive areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Territory (Kursk Oblast): RUF 91st Engineer-Sapper Regiment claims discovery of an abandoned arsenal in burned-out UAF vehicles in Kursk border region. This is likely RUF propaganda to demoralize UAF and bolster domestic support. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "ТАСС" report UAF strike on "Городской" beach in Kursk, with 3 injured, including a child, suggesting civilian targeting by UAF, likely RUF disinformation or misattribution. TASS specifically quotes Khinshtein about a 5-year-old child protecting his mother during the attack, which is a clear emotional appeal for propaganda purposes. Sever.Realii (RU opposition source) reports 3 dead, 7 injured from drone strikes in Kursk Oblast. RUF MoD states EOD specialists are demining settlements in the Kursk border area. TASS reports prevention of a "terrorist attack" in Saratov Oblast, with FSB claiming liquidation of a "saboteur" planning to blow up a railway bridge. Basurin (RUF source), Colonelcassad, and Sever.Realii also report on this incident, with Basurin and Colonelcassad providing video showing the alleged saboteur's liquidation. This indicates heightened internal security concerns in Russia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (on casualty attribution, HIGH on heightened security). TASS reports a 5-year-old boy injured in Kursk beach attack transferred to Moscow, reinforcing RUF propaganda efforts. RUF channels "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "Два майора" release videos purporting to show FSB liquidation of a "saboteur" in Saratov Oblast planning to blow up a railway bridge, reinforcing RUF internal security narratives. Rybar shows video of what appears to be a large fire in a residential building, possibly from Kursk. Basurin (RUF source) reports 3 dead from UAF attack on Kursk city beach, showing video of investigative committee examining drone wreckage. Rybar posts imagery and video from the Kursk attack. TASS reports Maria Zakharova calls for international condemnation of Kyiv's "terrorist attacks" in Kursk and Rylsk. Fighterbomber also comments on the "liquidation" of saboteurs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Territory (Belgorod Oblast/Shebekino): ASTRA reports first ambulances in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, observed with anti-drone nets. This indicates RUF adaptation to UAF drone threat in border regions and suggests ongoing threat perception. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Два майора" posts image of "Voronezh. Alekseevsky market," with no military significance but potentially indicating public life in Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Crimea: "РБК-Україна" reports a strong explosion in occupied Crimea, indicating potential UAF strike activity or partisan actions in the annexed territory. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Kryvyi Rih: Local administration reports the situation remains controlled as of morning 09.07.25, indicating no immediate direct threat despite widespread RUF aerial activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Front: RUF "WarGonzo" map indicates continued localized fighting and artillery duels, consistent with previous assessment of a relatively static axis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" (Creamy Caprice) features two soldiers from the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment appealing for power banks and electronics for their reconnaissance and intelligence gathering tasks, suggesting localized logistical needs on this front. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Sumy Oblast: RUF "WarGonzo" map shows activity in the Sumskoye direction, suggesting ongoing border skirmishes or reconnaissance, though no specific tactical details are provided. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAV on north Sumy Oblast, and RUF КАБы (KABs - glide bombs) on Sumy Oblast. This indicates continued RUF aerial activity, including potential shaping operations. UAF Air Force also reports high-speed aerial targets moving towards Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (Paratrooper's Diary) posts a satellite image for the Sumy direction, potentially indicating RUF reconnaissance or planning in the area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Pskov Oblast: Governor of Pskov Oblast bans residents from publishing information about drone strikes. This indicates heightened internal security and information control regarding cross-border UAF activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Southern Donetsk Direction (Velyka Novosilka - Vilne Pole): RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts image with geolocation data for Velyka Novosilka - Vilne Pole, indicating continued operations in this sector. "Сливочный каприз" also references "Tolstoy" in connection with Velyka Novosilka. Colonelcassad reports on the situation in the Southern Donetsk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • No significant new weather or environmental data reported that substantially alters the previous assessment. Continued heatwave and thunderstorms (where applicable) will impact ground operations and airframe performance.
  • Moscow reported its warmest night in 39 years (+19.3°C), indicating a general heatwave across the region which may affect RUF logistics and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • UAF: Maintaining active defense posture with localized counterattack capabilities (Toretsk, Chasiv Yar). Demonstrated high volume cross-border UAV operations. Highly engaged in air defense across multiple oblasts against RUF air attacks. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a total of 741 targets neutralized overnight (728 drones, 13 missiles). This includes over 300 Shaheds. UAF successfully employed "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups. Southern Defense Forces report destruction of 18 Shahed-131/136 UAVs in their operational zone. Strategic decision-making ongoing regarding US military aid, with official confirmations now stating supply has resumed. UAF sources (Zaporizhzhia Oblast military admin, Kyiv City Military Admin, General Staff, Operatyvnyi ZSU) are consistently observing daily moments of silence at 0900Z for fallen defenders. 77th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) captured an RUF officer, showcasing successful localized tactical operations and intelligence gathering. UAF General Staff and Coordination Headquarters for POWs are engaging in high-level discussions regarding prisoner exchanges and "vulnerable points" of Russia. UAF unit "Wormbusters" successfully destroyed an RUF Strela-10 SAM system with FPV drones, demonstrating continued asymmetric effectiveness. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration announced a grant program "Varto ROBYty SVOYE 2.0" for veteran businesses, indicating social support initiatives. UAF General Staff video confirms 100 Russian heavy flamethrower systems (TOS-1A, TOS-2) destroyed since the invasion, highlighting significant RUF asset losses and effective UAF targeting. UAF General Staff also posts photos of "technical ambulance" vehicles, indicating robust maintenance and repair capabilities for vehicles in the combat zone. UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reports destroying 15 Russian artillery pieces. UAF 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is training on firing on the move, indicating continued skill development and readiness in the Kharkiv area. The Coordination Headquarters for POWs held a meeting with families of the 74th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, demonstrating continued support for military families. UAF General Staff shares photos of a military couple getting married, reinforcing morale and resilience narratives. UAF source "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" discusses UAF attacks on the "Alabuga" Special Economic Zone, which produces Shahed drones, indicating targeted disruption of RUF military-industrial complex. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF: Sustaining ground pressure in Kupyansk and positional fighting in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. Executing large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting deep Ukrainian cities (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv Oblast) utilizing a record number of drones (728) and missiles (13), including 4 Kinzhals and 1 cruise missile on Lutsk. Actively countering UAF cross-border UAVs. Engaged in coordinated information warfare. New RUF video "Операция Z" shows "Geran" (Shahed) drone attacks on UAF equipment/positions, indicating continued reliance on loitering munitions. RUF sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Два майора) are actively fundraising for drones (DJI Mavic 3 Pro) and assault troops for units in Zaporizhzhia and Konstantinovka directions, indicating reliance on public support for certain equipment and specific needs. Colonelcassad confirms RUF artillery operations (Msta-B) in Krasnoarmeysk direction and air-to-air drone engagements over Chasiv Yar. RUF source "Военкор Котенок" claims "traces of the French Foreign Legion" across the front, especially Donetsk-Kharkiv, and heard on Dnipro, likely a disinformation attempt to suggest NATO direct involvement. RUF ambulances observed with anti-drone nets in Belgorod border region. RUF MoD is implementing a rapid online confirmation system for military service, likely for bureaucratic efficiency and social support. Colonelcassad reports destruction of an "enemy robotic platform" by RUF drone operators, indicating RUF counter-robotic capabilities. Poddubny posts video confirming the simplified process for military service confirmation, showcasing an administrative meeting discussing digitalization. RUF MoD source also posts video of combat engineers defusing explosives in LPR, indicating continued post-combat clearance. Russian sources discussing import of 1 million Indian workers might be related to labor shortages. RUF source "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" is actively fundraising for VDV units, specifically for Mavic drones, highlighting their continued reliance on external funding for tactical equipment and emphasizing "Mavic - a saved life." RUF sources "Операция Z" and "Воин DV" are issuing warnings about UAF "treacherous traps" and "mines on their own bodies," likely disinformation or psychological operations to deter UAF actions or demoralize UAF. TASS reports on the Max messenger exceeding 2 million users, suggesting some internal technological development in Russia. RUF source "Басурин о главном" shows videos of knives and swords, which has no immediate military intelligence value but could be propaganda. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities: RUF demonstrates continued capacity for localized ground offensives (Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, now claiming Tolsoty), robust defensive operations (Toretsk), and highly coordinated, record-setting multi-vector deep aerial strikes (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv Oblast) utilizing a mix of missiles (including 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk) and a very high volume of drones (728 reported, over 300 of which were Shaheds). Their air defense capabilities are stressed by sustained UAF drone activity but remain effective (86 UAVs claimed shot down, confirmed air-to-air drone engagements). RUF also retains robust information warfare capabilities, leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach attack for emotional appeal and internal security incidents (Saratov) for narrative control. RUF channels like "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" continue to solicit donations for drones, indicating reliance on public support for certain equipment. Continued use of towed artillery (Msta-B) in key sectors suggests adequate ammunition supply for attritional warfare. Adoption of anti-drone nets on ambulances indicates tactical adaptation to UAF drone threat. RUF is also showcasing internal administrative modernization through rapid online confirmation of military service. RUF claims destruction of an "enemy robotic platform," indicating counter-robotic capabilities. The identification of a disabled Russian armored vehicle near Konstantinovka (UAF source) suggests some RUF offensive attempts are failing and resulting in equipment losses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Intentions:
    • Kupyansk: Continue incremental territorial gains, aiming to consolidate control and push UAF further west. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Toretsk/Konstantinovka/Tolsoty): Maintain pressure, achieve breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, repel UAF counterattacks, and prevent UAF from seizing initiative. RUF fundraising for assault troops in Konstantinovka indicates specific offensive intent there. RUF actions in Kamenske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) indicate intent to clear UAF positions. The claim of liberating Tolsoty indicates an intention for continued localized offensive pushes in Southern Donetsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Deep Strikes: Continue to target critical and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine to degrade warfighting capacity, deplete UAF air defense munitions, and exert psychological pressure on the population. The increased volume and use of high-value missiles (Kinzhals on Lutsk) signifies an intent to overwhelm UAF air defenses and force expenditure of expensive interceptors, and specifically target key logistical/military hubs in Western Ukraine (e.g., airfields). The statement by President Zelenskyy that the Lutsk attack was "demonstrative" reinforces this assessment of intent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Information Warfare: Continue to promote narratives of UAF losses, RUF successes, and UAF aggression against Russian territory (Kursk beach incident with emotional appeals, internal Ukrainian issues like reported TCC officer assassination, alleged Ukrainian sabotage in Saratov) to justify their operations and maintain domestic support. RUF will also attempt to generate narratives of direct NATO involvement (e.g., French Foreign Legion claim, Trump's hypothetical threats to bomb Moscow) and sow discord among allies by amplifying political statements and diplomatic missteps (German Embassy map error). RUF will also emphasize perceived Ukrainian vulnerabilities such as female mobilization. RUF will continue to portray UAF as targeting civilians in Russia to galvanize support and discredit Ukraine, as seen with Zakharova's statement. RUF will also attempt to reinforce narratives of a strong, expanding Russian economy/labor force (e.g., Indian workers) and internal technological advancement (Max messenger app). RUF messaging about UAF "treacherous traps" and "mines on their own bodies" aims to demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Internal Security: Intensify counter-sabotage and counter-terrorism operations within Russia, particularly in border regions, and use successful interdictions (Saratov) for propaganda purposes and to justify increased internal control (e.g., Pskov information ban). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Courses of Action:
    • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue attritional ground assaults in key Donbas sectors (Chasiv Yar as main effort, with increasing pressure on Konstantinovka and continued local advances like Tolsoty) and maintain localized pressure in Kupyansk. Expect further waves of diversified aerial attacks, primarily drones and missiles (including potential continued use of Kinzhals), targeting deep areas of Ukraine to deplete UAF air defense and inflict economic/psychological damage. The observed record number of drones indicates this will be a sustained tactic. RUF will sustain efforts to counter UAF cross-border UAVs (e.g., anti-drone nets on vehicles, counter-robot capabilities) and intensify their information campaigns, including attributing civilian casualties in Russia to UAF and propagating narratives of direct NATO involvement. RUF internal security services will continue to target alleged Ukrainian "saboteurs" and use these incidents for internal propaganda, potentially leading to increased information control measures in border regions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): No new information suggesting a shift from the previous MDCOA. (Refer to previous report for MDCOA regarding Kharkiv offensive and Donbas breakthrough). The confirmed use of glide bombs and VDV units in Chasiv Yar, as per the previous daily report, underscores the risk of a breakthrough in that sector. The continued RUF use of KABs in Sumy region and high force concentration in Belgorod keeps the Kharkiv offensive as a serious threat. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • RUF: Demonstrated a significantly increased scale and depth of aerial attacks, as evidenced by the mass attack on Lutsk (including 4 Kinzhals) and targets across Ukraine, including a record number of drones (728). This suggests an adaptation to overwhelm UAF air defense or deplete ammunition, and target high-value assets/locations in Western Ukraine (e.g., airfields). Confirmed use of "Geran" (Shahed) drones in strikes on UAF positions, highlighting continued reliance on this platform. Continued focus on reconnaissance and counter-UAV operations is noted, with the new observation of anti-drone nets on ambulances in Belgorod indicating a tactical adaptation to counter UAF drone activity in border regions. RUF are also observed using FPV drones against UAF vehicles (pickup, tank). RUF media (Kotsnews) explicitly mentioning "mobilization of Ukrainian women" indicates an adaptation in their propaganda to target potential UAF vulnerabilities. The reported FSB actions against "saboteurs" and associated propaganda videos indicate increased focus on internal security and leveraging such incidents for information effects. RUF claims of destroying UAF "robotic platforms" indicate their efforts to counter UAF technological advantages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF: Sustained very high volume of cross-border UAV attacks, indicating an ongoing UAF strategy to disrupt and degrade Russian targets. Effective air defense responses against record-setting RUF air assaults (741 targets neutralized including 728 drones and 13 missiles, over 300 of which were Shaheds). Confirmed use and scaling of "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups for air defense. Continued tactical flexibility in counterattacks (Toretsk) and effective FPV drone operations (5th Assault Brigade and "Wormbusters" unit destroying a Strela-10 SAM). Demonstrated success in capturing RUF personnel (RUF officer by 77th Airmobile Brigade, new captured soldier by 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade). Official confirmation of US arms supply resumption provides critical tactical and strategic stability. UAF General Staff highlighting 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems destroyed indicates effective counter-armor/flamethrower tactics. Robust maintenance capabilities (technical ambulances) observed. UAF 63rd Brigade claiming 15 artillery pieces destroyed indicates effective counter-battery fire. UAF 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade demonstrating firing on the move shows continued training and readiness. UAF Southern Defense Forces confirmed effective drone strikes against RUF artillery. UAF strikes against Russian drone production facilities (Alabuga) represent a new tactical adaptation to target RUF military-industrial complex. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • RUF: The record-setting number of drones (728) used in recent attacks strongly suggests sustained production or significant resupply of UAVs, particularly Shaheds. This volume indicates a robust industrial base or external support for these platforms. Widespread, multi-vector aerial strikes (including "Geran" drones and Kinzhals) suggest continued production or resupply of drones and missiles. RUF units are actively fundraising for specific items like DJI Mavic 3 Pro drones, thermal imagers, and Mavic drones for VDV units, suggesting a potential gap in, or high demand for, certain specific capabilities that central supply struggles to meet. This does not necessarily indicate a systemic shortage. RUF efforts to streamline military service confirmation may also be tied to improving social support for military personnel. The reported loss of 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems represents a significant logistical and combat capability loss for Russia, impacting their ability to deliver thermobaric fires. RUF MoD video on demining efforts suggests ongoing need for specialized engineer assets. Appeals for power banks and electronics by the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment suggest specific equipment shortfalls at the tactical level for reconnaissance and intelligence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on drone supply, MEDIUM on other specific items).
  • UAF: Continued sustained operations (air defense, drone attacks, ground counterattacks) imply ongoing, albeit constrained, logistical support. The official confirmation of US weapon supplies resuming is a critical positive development, significantly mitigating the previous long-term logistical threat. UAF channels like "STERNENKO" fundraising for "Optical Russosaw" (thermal imaging/optics, fiber optic drones to counter jamming) and "РБК-Україна" reporting on Brigade "Rubizh" fundraising for equipment indicates ongoing equipment needs, mirroring RUF. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration showcasing drones, implying internal supply/production. New grant program for veteran businesses indicates internal social support mechanisms. UAF General Staff photos of "technical ambulances" demonstrate active and capable field maintenance and repair. STERNENKO reports a slowdown in fundraising, potentially indicating fundraising fatigue or a perceived decrease in urgency. Soldier's video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights critical shortages of artillery and ammunition at the tactical level, if this is a UAF soldier. UAF reports on striking Russian Shahed production facilities (Alabuga) indicates a strategy to impact RUF logistics and sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on US aid confirmation and maintenance), MEDIUM (on sustained tactical supply for all units).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • RUF: Maintains effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes, including orchestrating a record-setting drone and missile attack. Ground C2 appears robust enough to repel UAF counterattacks and maintain pressure on various axes (Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, Tolsoty), evidenced by successful interdiction of UAF rotation and coordinated FPV drone strikes. Rapid adoption of anti-drone nets on ambulances suggests effective adaptation to tactical threats. The implementation of a rapid online system for military service confirmation indicates a functional, adapting bureaucracy. FSB operations and Pskov information ban indicate robust internal security C2. RUF is also showcasing its space capabilities and domestic software development (Roscosmos head's statement), indicating strategic C2 focus on technological independence. The appeal for donations by soldiers in the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (RUF) directly to the public suggests some C2 limitations in meeting all unit-level equipment needs through official channels, though this is not indicative of widespread failure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses to mass attacks, conducting cross-border drone operations, and managing ground engagements, including successful capture of RUF personnel and successful FPV drone strikes against high-value targets (Strela-10, TOS-1A/TOS-2). C2 for strategic messaging (e.g., US aid discussions) remains functional and has been effectively used to convey positive developments. UAF General Staff and other high-level bodies are actively discussing POW exchanges and Russian vulnerabilities, demonstrating strategic C2 focus. The immediate report from OTU "Kharkiv" on the situation indicates local C2 effectiveness. The Coordination Headquarters for POWs meeting with families indicates effective bureaucratic C2 for support functions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Force Posture: UAF maintains a layered defensive posture across the country, with active front-line engagements and a robust nationwide air defense network. Proactive offensive actions in the information domain and through cross-border UAV strikes, and now a confirmed strategy to target RUF military-industrial facilities (Alabuga). Ukrainian General Staff is engaging in high-level discussions with intelligence leadership (Budanov) regarding strategic opportunities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and effective air defense responses to mass RUF aerial attacks, evidenced by the 741 targets neutralized. Units engaged in ground combat maintain operational tempo, including successful capture operations and effective FPV drone use, including destruction of a Strela-10 and multiple TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems. Official confirmation of US aid resumption significantly boosts long-term readiness and sustainability. UAF continues to manage internal issues such as corruption (Kyiv city department official suspected of overpaying for generators, Kharkov fraudster) which could impact readiness. Maintenance and repair capabilities are demonstrated by "technical ambulance" vehicles. 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is maintaining training and readiness. However, the message from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) about lack of artillery and shells for a specific unit indicates potential localized readiness issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (overall), MEDIUM (localized readiness in some units).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • RECORD-SETTING Air Defense Performance: Successful interception of 741 RUF aerial targets (728 drones, 13 missiles total) including over 300 Shaheds, 17 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and 18 Shaheds in the Southern Operational Zone, showcasing highly effective layered air defense against a massive assault and successful use of "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups.
    • Official Resumption of US Weapon Supplies: US Department of State confirmed the resumption of arms supplies, a critical positive development for UAF long-term capabilities and morale.
    • Sustained high volume of cross-border UAF drone attacks into Russia, pressuring RUF homeland defense and potentially diverting resources.
    • Successful drone strike by 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madya" on an RUF military vehicle on Pokrovsk direction.
    • Effective FPV drone operations by 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade targeting RUF infantry and armored vehicles.
    • Successful FPV drone strike by "Wormbusters" unit destroying an RUF Strela-10 SAM system.
    • Destruction of 100 Russian TOS-1A/TOS-2 Heavy Flamethrower Systems: Confirmed by UAF General Staff, indicating highly effective counter-fire and anti-armor tactics against a high-value RUF asset.
    • Destruction of 15 Russian Artillery Pieces: Confirmed by UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating effective counter-battery fire. UAF Southern Defense Forces also confirm successful drone strikes on RUF artillery.
    • Capture of an RUF officer by the 77th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) and an RUF soldier by the 82nd Airmobile Assault Brigade.
    • Maintaining defensive lines against RUF pressure in Toretsk.
    • Continued fundraising efforts for critical equipment ("Optical Russosaw" - fiber optic drones). STERNENKO reports 24.5 million out of 50 million UAH raised for drone systems.
    • EU discussing a 100 billion Euro fund for Ukraine, indicating robust financial support.
    • High-level discussions on POW exchanges and "Russia's vulnerable points" (Budanov to President).
    • Introduction of a grant program for veteran businesses by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration.
    • Demonstrated robust field maintenance capabilities ("technical ambulances").
    • OTU "Kharkiv" reporting on operational situation indicates maintained C2.
    • 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade training on fire on the move demonstrates continued skill development.
    • Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office reports on a fraud case, demonstrating efforts to counter internal corruption.
    • UAF General Staff promoting positive morale messages (military marriage).
    • UAF source "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" details UAF attacks on Russian Shahed production at "Alabuga," indicating a strategic offensive against RUF military-industrial capacity.
  • Setbacks:
    • Massive RUF aerial attack on Lutsk (Volyn Oblast) using high-value missiles (4 Kinzhals), and other deep targets (Kyiv, Zhytomyr), indicating RUF ability to penetrate UAF air defenses in certain areas or overwhelm them, leading to significant damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties (Lutsk, Brovary, Zhytomyr, 2 injured in Kyiv Oblast).
    • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts from RUF strikes.
    • RUF claims of pushing UAF from Kupyansk positions, repelling UAF counterattacks in Toretsk, and liberating Tolsoty, if independently verified, represent tactical setbacks.
    • Ongoing intense pressure on Chasiv Yar, with observed successful RUF interdiction of UAF rotation and RUF claims of destroying UAF drones in aerial combat, signifies a continuous threat of tactical breakthrough in a key sector. The disabled Russian armored vehicle near Konstantinovka suggests failed RUF attacks but also sustained pressure in that area.
    • Reported UAF drone strikes causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (3 dead, 7 injured) will be heavily exploited by RUF for information warfare purposes.
    • Internal issue: Kyiv city department official under suspicion for overpaying for generators, highlighting persistent corruption issues. Kharkiv resident to be tried for fraud related to guaranteeing employment in the SBI, further indicating internal issues.
    • Reported unit-level shortages of artillery and ammunition by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) highlights critical tactical supply issues.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT due to the unprecedented intensity and scale of RUF aerial attacks (741 targets, including Kinzhals). While US aid has resumed, the volume of interceptors expended during such attacks remains a significant concern for sustained defense, especially for high-value interceptors required for Kinzhals.
  • ISR/Night Vision/EW Resistant Drones: Continued need for thermal imagers, advanced optics, and, critically, drones with enhanced resistance to electronic warfare (e.g., fiber optic drones as per STERNENKO's fundraiser), given the observed RUF counter-UAV adaptations (anti-drone nets, counter-robot capabilities). STERNENKO's report on slowed fundraising indicates this is an ongoing constraint. RUF (70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment) are also requesting similar items, highlighting their importance.
  • Artillery Ammunition (Unit Level): The message from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (if UAF source) highlights a critical, localized need for artillery shells and other ammunition, which could significantly impact defensive capabilities and counter-fire.
  • External Military Aid: The official resumption of US arms supplies and the EU fund discussion are highly positive. However, the sheer volume and lethality of recent RUF air attacks underscores the urgency of rapid delivery and continued commitment, particularly for advanced air defense systems. Continued fundraising by UAF units (e.g., "Rubizh" brigade, STERNENKO) indicates ongoing equipment shortfalls at the unit level.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RUF Narratives: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "TASS" continue to broadcast claims of successful RUF air defense (86 UAVs shot down) and attribute cross-border attacks to UAF, aiming to project strength and justify ongoing operations. The attribution of a strike on a civilian beach in Kursk to UAF, with emotional appeals regarding a child protecting his mother (TASS, Khinshtein), is a clear attempt to demonize UAF and generate domestic support for RUF actions. "WarGonzo" actively promotes RUF strikes deep into Ukraine. "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" continues to fundraise, which could also be a subtle message of resource needs or a genuine call for support, while also disseminating videos of "Geran" drone effectiveness. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" and "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posting images of "successfully demobilized" personnel (likely deceased UAF) is a psychological operation to demoralize UAF. RUF sources are also amplifying politically charged statements attributed to former President Trump regarding hypothetical threats to Moscow/Beijing to influence perceptions of Western support, as well as claims of "French Foreign Legion" presence on the front line to justify escalation. RUF sources also amplifying unverified claims of internal UAF issues (e.g., alleged Wagner group criminal activity, alleged poor treatment of POWs implying UAF torture). RUF channel "Kotsnews" is highlighting "mobilization of Ukrainian women" and "Europe's preparation for war" to generate fear and demoralization. RUF channels are also reporting on "liquidated saboteurs" (Saratov) to portray effective internal security and justify information control (Pskov ban on drone strike information). Maria Zakharova's statement calling for international condemnation of UAF attacks in Kursk/Rylsk is a prime example of RUF's efforts to frame Ukraine as a terrorist state. RUF channels are also depicting youth with Russian flags trampling US flags as a form of patriotic indoctrination and anti-Western sentiment. RUF claims that Trump "recognized liberated lands as Russian" (Kotsnews) is a significant and false narrative aimed at undermining Western resolve and legitimacy of Ukrainian territory. Claims of preventing a "terrorist attack" on a railway bridge in Saratov and showing the "liquidation" of the alleged saboteur are potent internal security narratives (Basurin, Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber). RUF sources are also highlighting Russian legislative efforts to crack down on migrants (Alex Parker Returns), likely to appeal to a nationalist audience. RUF sources "Операция Z" and "Воин DV" are broadcasting warnings about UAF "treacherous traps" and "mines on their own bodies" to sow fear among RUF forces and deter UAF advances. RUF source "Старше Эдды" comments on the Trump audio recordings, framing them as a "convenient position" that makes him "cool" but questions their realism, aiming to dismiss Western threats as bluster. "Janus Putkonen - Uutisia..." promotes the narrative that the US orchestrated the 2014 Kyiv coup and escalated the Ukraine agenda to conflict, reinforcing anti-Western sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF Counter-Narratives: "Operativny ZSU" and "STERNENKO" highlight the official resumption of US military aid and emphasize the unprecedented number of RUF targets neutralized (741) to counter negative narratives about aid suspension and demonstrate UAF resilience. "RBC-Ukraine" and local administrations focus on the impact of RUF strikes on civilian areas (Lutsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Brovary) to highlight RUF aggression. UAF channels like "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" promote messages of resilience ("Kherson, watermelons are growing") and counter Russian justifications for the war by highlighting Russian-speaking casualties caused by RUF. UAF sources are also consistently promoting daily moments of silence at 0900Z for fallen defenders to galvanize national unity. UAF is also effectively using combat footage (e.g., drone strike by 414th Brigade, FPV strikes by 5th Assault Brigade, capture of RUF officer by 77th Brigade, capture of RUF soldier by 82nd Brigade, destruction of Strela-10 by Wormbusters, destruction of 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems, destruction of 15 artillery pieces by 63rd Brigade, rescue of deer implying compassion, destruction of RUF artillery by Southern Defense Forces) for morale boosting and information effect. UAF General Prosecutor's Office reporting on corruption cases demonstrates accountability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Zelenskyy's statement on the Lutsk attack being "demonstrative" sets a strong narrative. "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" reports on legal actions against individuals scamming families of POWs, highlighting UAF's commitment to protecting its citizens and addressing internal issues. UAF General Staff and Air Force Communications also provide formal updates. UAF General Staff promotes images of military personnel engaging in everyday life (e.g., marriage proposal) to normalize and humanize the military, boosting morale. UAF source "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" highlights UAF attacks on Russian Shahed production, framing UAF as actively degrading RUF's military-industrial complex. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Public: The record-setting large-scale aerial attacks on cities like Lutsk (including Kinzhals), Kyiv, and Zhytomyr will significantly impact civilian morale and create widespread anxiety. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage will fuel anti-RUF sentiment. News regarding the official resumption of US military aid and a potential EU fund will provide a much-needed morale boost and reassurance regarding sustained support. The successful neutralization of 741 RUF targets will be a critical morale booster, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and resilience. The "watermelons in Kherson" message from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" aims to evoke resilience and continuity. Consistent observation of "minutes of silence" for fallen soldiers reinforces national resolve. Reports of internal corruption (Kyiv official, Kharkov fraudster) may cause some public discontent but also signal accountability. The German Chancellor's statement on exhausted diplomatic possibilities may reinforce public resolve for continued resistance. News of the death of a Ukrainian composer will affect public sentiment. The potential report of localized ammunition shortages (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) could negatively impact morale if widely known. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Public: State-controlled media will reinforce narratives of successful defense against "Ukrainian aggression" (86 UAVs shot down, Saratov "saboteur" liquidation) and portray RUF as effectively prosecuting the "special military operation," leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach strike (with emotional details about a child) to galvanize support and portray UAF as targeting civilians. News of RUF internal issues (Sollers sales decline, alleged misconduct by "SVO veteran" - Wagner, TASS reporting on a German Embassy map apology implying diplomatic victory) are unlikely to reach a broad audience or are downplayed. Calls for donations for equipment like drones (Dnevnik Desantnika, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) could indicate popular support or a perceived need to bridge supply gaps. The official US confirmation of resumed aid to Ukraine may be framed as evidence of Western aggression and justify further escalation. Concerns about veteran socialization for injured personnel are emerging. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The ban on publishing drone strike information in Pskov indicates efforts to manage public perception and prevent morale decline. The footage of Russian youth disrespecting the US flag suggests state-sponsored manipulation of youth sentiment for nationalistic purposes. News of large-scale import of Indian workers (Alex Parker Returns) could be spun positively or negatively depending on the audience segment. The message from RUF soldiers (70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment) requesting donations from the public could subtly indicate perceived shortfalls in official supply, potentially impacting morale if widespread. Igor Strelkov's pessimistic commentary on Russia's military progress and internal complacency offers a counter-narrative to official RUF triumphalism. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • Support for Ukraine: The US Department of State (confirmed by multiple UAF-aligned sources) has officially stated the resumption of weapon supplies to Ukraine, a crucial development directly countering previous negative reports. Bloomberg reports the EU is considering a 100 billion Euro fund for Ukraine, signaling robust financial commitment. Poland's heightened air defense readiness remains a positive signal of regional solidarity. UAF Foreign Minister's discussions on diplomatic missions (US Ambassador) indicate ongoing efforts to secure and maintain international support. German Chancellor Merz's statement on exhausted diplomatic possibilities signals a hardening of resolve among key European partners. President Zelenskyy's visit to Rome (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, STERNENKO) indicates continued high-level diplomatic engagement to secure international support. Kharkiv Oblast Governor's discussions with Switzerland reinforce ongoing bilateral support efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Diplomatic Engagements: Ukrainian Foreign Minister's discussions on diplomatic missions (US Ambassador) indicate ongoing efforts to secure and maintain international support despite potential challenges. RBU-Ukraine reports on EU Commissioner Marta Kos discussing Hungary's veto, EU accession, and aid, indicating ongoing, complex diplomatic processes. RUF sources (Basurin, Два майора claiming Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey is a "terrorist") are attempting to highlight and potentially exacerbate diplomatic conflicts (e.g., Azerbaijan-Russia relations) to distract or portray Russia as a strong regional player. TASS reporting on the German Embassy's apology for a map error demonstrates RUF efforts to leverage diplomatic incidents for narrative gain. Conflicting reports from TASS and CNN regarding Trump's stance on aid to Ukraine will be used by RUF to sow confusion among allies. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan conducting joint UAV exercises without Russia's involvement highlights Russia's isolation in certain regional security frameworks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports Pashinyan and Aliyev will meet, indicating a focus on regional stability in the Caucasus. TASS report on The Economist's view of Trump's support (less than full) also attempts to shape the narrative around US commitment. RUF source Alex Parker Returns' discussion of a perceived "anti-Russian" statement by an Abkhazian official, identified as an Armenian, attempts to sow internal divisions and play on ethnic tensions within Russia's sphere of influence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in the Donbas, particularly on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk direction, and persist with localized pressure in the Kupyansk area. RUF claims of taking Tolsoty, if true, indicate continued attempts for incremental gains in the Southern Donetsk. They will likely attempt to exploit any perceived UAF weaknesses or ammunition shortages, though the aid picture appears more stable now. The focus on Konstantinovka (fundraising for assault troops) and Kamenske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) indicates these as likely secondary or tertiary ground efforts. The reported presence of a disabled Russian armored vehicle near Konstantinovka suggests continued, albeit costly, RUF offensive attempts in that area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Increased Frequency and Volume of Aerial Strikes with High-Value Munitions: RUF will likely maintain a high frequency and volume of combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets (including logistics, energy, and population centers, particularly in Western Ukraine, e.g., airfields) to further deplete UAF air defense munitions and exert psychological damage. The record-setting 728 drones observed in the last attack, coupled with the use of 4 Kinzhals on Lutsk, indicates a continued reliance on this tactic to overwhelm UAF air defenses and destroy critical infrastructure. Ballistic missile use in Mykolaiv Oblast indicates continued varied long-range targeting. UAF attacks on Russian Shahed production facilities may reduce this capacity in the long term, but RUF will likely attempt to compensate with existing stockpiles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations to highlight any UAF battlefield setbacks, amplify narratives of internal divisions among Ukraine's allies, and demoralize Ukrainian society, specifically using incidents like the Kursk beach attack to frame UAF as aggressors and leveraging political statements for perceived advantage. RUF will also attempt to manufacture and disseminate evidence of direct NATO/Western troop involvement to justify their actions. Expect continued focus on alleged internal Ukrainian issues (corruption, female mobilization) and "successful" counter-terrorism operations within Russia (like Saratov), leading to more stringent information control measures in border regions (e.g., Pskov ban). RUF will continue to use internal propaganda focused on nationalistic themes and anti-Western sentiment (e.g., youth with flags). Expect continued RUF messaging attempting to sow fear among UAF forces ("treacherous traps"). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas, potentially overwhelming UAF's ability to conduct a two-front defense. This remains the MDCOA despite potential positive aid developments, as the force concentration in Belgorod is confirmed and RUF KAB use in Sumy points to continued preparatory efforts. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, potentially Konstantinovka, or southern Donetsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains, potentially triggering a cascading collapse of adjacent sectors. The persistent pressure and use of elite VDV units on Chasiv Yar, coupled with the captured RUF soldier's insights into unit movements, increases the risk of this scenario. The RUF claim of taking Tolsoty, if independently verified, could signal more aggressive offensive intent in the Southern Donetsk. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • IMMEDIATE (0-12 hours): Continued high-intensity air defense engagements across Ukraine, particularly in response to follow-on RUF aerial attacks which will likely remain at high volume (e.g., fast targets on Sumy). UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving US aid situation (Patriot news, EU fund) to maintain morale and reassure allies.
  • SHORT-TERM (12-72 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas (especially Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kamenske, with potential new pushes in Southern Donetsk like Tolsoty). Continued UAF cross-border drone activity is highly probable. Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions, even with confirmed aid, given the ongoing threat of deep strikes and recent high expenditures. Rapid integration of newly confirmed US aid into planning. UAF leadership will need to rapidly address any specific unit-level ammunition shortages.
  • MID-TERM (72 hours - 1 week): The precise nature and timing of any new US and EU aid (e.g., Patriot system deployment, 100 billion Euro fund) will become clearer. This period will be critical for UAF to adapt its strategy based on confirmed resource availability and for allies to solidify aid commitments. Decision point for UAF to implement significant force restructuring or doctrinal changes based on evolving resource constraints. RUF will continue to adapt to UAF drone capabilities, as evidenced by increasing anti-drone measures and counter-robotic capabilities. UAF attacks on RUF drone production facilities will continue to impact long-term RUF capabilities.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  1. US/EU Military and Financial Aid Delivery Timelines & Composition:
    • GAP: While the resumption of US military aid is confirmed, precise delivery timelines for key systems (e.g., Patriot) and munitions, and the implementation mechanisms and timelines for the proposed EU 100 billion Euro fund, remain unclear. The specific types and quantities of newly released US aid need to be confirmed beyond generic statements. Conflicting statements from US sources (CNN vs. TASS on Trump's position, Alex Parker Returns' interpretation) add to uncertainty.
    • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (diplomatic and intelligence channels), OSINT (official US/EU statements, reputable financial and defense media analysis), and IMINT (observing changes in aid shipments if possible) to ascertain the precise status and immediate/long-term impact on UAF capabilities and financial stability. Clarify US official position on aid continuity.
  2. RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory after Record Attack:
    • GAP: Comprehensive assessment of RUF's current production rates, remaining stockpiles, and supply chain resilience for long-range missiles (e.g., Kh-101, Kinzhal, Iskander) and various types of attack UAVs (e.g., Shahed-131/136, Lancet, "Geran") following the expenditure of 728 drones and 13 missiles (including 4 Kinzhals) in a single night. This event indicates a potentially larger inventory or production capacity than previously assessed. The impact of losing 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems on RUF production and deployment schedules for these high-value assets needs assessment. The effectiveness of recent UAF strikes on RUF drone production facilities (Alabuga) on RUF's future drone capacity also needs evaluation.
    • CR: Utilize SIGINT, HUMINT, and open-source intelligence from sanctioned entities to track RUF defense industrial base output and identify any new procurement sources or surges in production. Assess the sustainability of such high-volume, high-value attacks. Monitor RUF TOS-1/2 production and deployment. Continue to monitor and assess the impact of strikes on Alabuga.
  3. RUF Ground Reserve Commitment and Intent (Kharkiv/Belgorod):
    • GAP: Precise size, composition, and readiness of the Russian grouping of forces in Belgorod remains unconfirmed, particularly after recent shaping operations and observed KAB use in Sumy. The ultimate strategic intent is unclear: a limited buffer zone operation, a large-scale feint to draw Ukrainian reserves, or a full-scale assault aimed at encircling Kharkiv. This remains a critical gap from the previous daily report.
    • CR: Prioritize strategic ISR (satellite, long-range UAVs), SIGINT, and HUMINT to monitor force movements, command communications, and logistical preparations in the Belgorod region and behind Donbas front lines. Special attention on identifying any operational-level command posts or forward logistics nodes.
  4. UAF Unit-Level Ammunition/Artillery Shortages:
    • GAP: The veracity and scope of individual unit reports regarding critical ammunition shortages (e.g., "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" source) need urgent verification to assess if these are isolated incidents or indicative of a broader, systemic supply issue impacting combat effectiveness at the tactical edge, despite overall positive aid developments.
    • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (front-line reports, unit intelligence), and logistical SIGINT to confirm the extent and nature of reported ammunition shortfalls for artillery, mortars, and other critical systems. Identify specific units/sectors most affected. This is critical for immediate resource allocation planning.
  5. Assessment of UAF Cross-Border Drone Strike Effectiveness and Impact:
    • GAP: While RUF reports claim high numbers of UAF UAVs shot down, a clear assessment of the actual impact (damage, casualties, disruption) of UAF cross-border drone operations on Russian military and civilian infrastructure is needed to evaluate strategic effect. The extent of civilian casualties (e.g., Kursk) also needs UAF verification to inform messaging. The impact of RUF counter-UAV measures (e.g., anti-drone nets, FSB operations) on UAF operations in border areas needs to be assessed.
    • CR: Leverage OSINT (Russian official and unofficial channels, local reporting) and HUMINT (if available) to verify and assess battle damage, economic disruption, and civilian casualties from UAF drone strikes. Conduct post-strike analysis to refine targeting and optimize effects. Assess effectiveness of RUF counter-drone measures and UAF adaptations (e.g., fiber optic drones).

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Immediate Air Defense Munition Resupply and Optimization: Given the unprecedented volume and lethality (Kinzhals, ballistic missiles) of the recent RUF aerial attack, immediately prioritize and expedite the resupply of air defense munitions to all active air defense units, especially for Patriot systems. Conduct an urgent assessment of remaining interceptor stocks and implement a dynamic allocation strategy to protect critical infrastructure (particularly in Western Ukraine, e.g., Lutsk airfield) while maintaining front-line air superiority. Focus on integrating and deploying EW-resistant drone interceptors.
    • Action: Coordinate with international partners for emergency air defense munition deliveries, prioritizing long-range interceptors for ballistic missiles and Kinzhals. Adjust engagement parameters to conserve high-value munitions where feasible against lower-priority targets (e.g., small drones). Scale up domestic production and "drone-interceptor" programs, including those with fiber-optic guidance.
    • POC: Air Force Command, Logistics Command, G3/5 for resource allocation.
  2. Reinforce Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kamenske/Southern Donetsk with Anti-Armor and Counter-Assault Capabilities, and Address Ammunition Shortages: Recognize Chasiv Yar as the current RUF main effort, with increasing pressure on Konstantinovka, Kamenske, and new offensives in Southern Donetsk (Tolsoty). Prioritize the immediate allocation of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), and FPV drones to units defending these critical sectors to specifically target dismounted VDV assault groups, light armored vehicles, and low-flying attack helicopters. Expedite delivery of artillery and mortar rounds to these sectors, addressing any confirmed unit-level shortfalls immediately. The recent interdiction of UAF rotation suggests RUF is actively targeting logistical flow to this area. Acknowledge insights from captured RUF soldier to better understand RUF unit morale/supply. Continue to target and destroy RUF heavy flamethrower systems (TOS-1A/TOS-2) and artillery.
    • Action: Conduct urgent resupply of ATGM and FPV drone munitions to Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka/Kamenske/Southern Donetsk. Reinforce with specialized anti-armor teams. Implement anti-UAV measures along supply routes. Leverage intelligence from captured RUF personnel for immediate tactical advantage. Continue to actively target and destroy RUF TOS systems and artillery. Investigate and rectify any reported unit-level ammunition shortfalls.
    • POC: Ground Forces Command, Logistics Command, G2 for debriefing/exploitation.
  3. Execute Pre-emptive Deep Strikes on Belgorod Concentrated Forces and RUF Military-Industrial Complex: Leveraging identified targets from CR #3, execute targeted strikes against Russian artillery positions, C2 nodes, and troop concentrations in the Belgorod Oblast to disrupt any impending offensive and degrade their offensive capacity before it commences. The continued RUF strikes on Kharkiv and use of KABs in Sumy confirm the intent to shape this battlespace for a potential large-scale operation. Simultaneously, continue and expand targeting of RUF military-industrial complex facilities, specifically those involved in Shahed drone production (e.g., Alabuga), to degrade their long-term ability to conduct mass aerial attacks.
    • Action: Authorize and plan long-range strike missions using available assets (e.g., ATACMS, cruise missiles). Prioritize targets identified by ISR in Belgorod and beyond. Identify and target further vulnerabilities in RUF drone supply chains and production.
    • POC: General Staff, Operational Commands responsible for long-range strikes.
  4. Proactively Manage Public and International Messaging on US/EU Aid and Air Defense Successes, and Counter RUF Disinformation: Develop clear, consistent, and proactive messaging to the Ukrainian public and international partners regarding the official resumption of US military aid and the potential EU 100 billion Euro fund. Critically, highlight the successful neutralization of 741 RUF aerial targets (including destruction of Strela-10 SAM, 100 TOS-1A/TOS-2 systems, and 15 artillery pieces) to reinforce UAF capabilities and boost national morale. Counter Russian disinformation campaigns (e.g., Kursk beach incident, political rhetoric, "French Legion" claims, TCC officer assassination claims, female mobilization claims, Trump's "recognition" of occupied lands, "treacherous traps") with verified facts and strong condemnations, and be prepared to address UAF actions that result in civilian casualties in Russia with transparent, factual information. Utilize successful combat footage for positive information effects. Immediately address and counter narratives of "Ukrainian female mobilization" as part of RUF PSYOPs. Leverage President Zelenskyy's statements to frame the narrative. Highlight UAF's commitment to internal accountability (e.g., addressing corruption, protecting POW families). Reinforce the narrative that UAF is actively targeting RUF's military-industrial capacity.
    • Action: Conduct press briefings and public statements highlighting continued international support and UAF air defense effectiveness. Immediately refute false RUF claims about UAF targeting civilians. Develop a rapid response team to counter real-time RUF disinformation. Ensure public awareness of support programs for veterans.
    • POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense.

END OF REPORT

Previous (2025-07-09 08:56:26Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.