Sitrep 2025-07-09 06:55:57

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 090655Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk): RUF continues pressure, reportedly pushing UAF from northwestern outskirts of Kupyansk. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports RUF strikes on Kharkiv city and 8 settlements over the past day, including a damaged combine harvester. This confirms continued RUF shaping operations and targeting of civilian infrastructure in the Kharkiv direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk): RUF ("Voenkory Russkoy Vesny") claim a UAF counterattack with tanks and motorcycles near Bilaya Gora-Dyleyevka was repelled. This confirms continued active UAF counter-operations in the heavily contested Toretsk sector. TASS reports RUF command claims UAF is sustaining positions at "height near Petrovsky in LNR," indicating continued localized fighting for key terrain. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk): RUF "WarGonzo" map and text indicate continued pressure on Chasiv Yar, with possible incremental gains on the eastern outskirts, consistent with RUF main effort. New RUF video from "Воин DV" shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroying a UAF vehicle attempting personnel rotation near Karl Marx, indicating continued targeted interdiction of UAF logistics/personnel in proximity to the Chasiv Yar axis. UAF unit WORMBUSTERS 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madya" conducted a successful drone strike on an RUF military vehicle (truck/personnel carrier with 'Z' marking) on the Pokrovsk direction, resulting in its destruction by fire and apparent personnel casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Colonelcassad (RUF source) video shows a Russian artillery crew operating a 2A65 'Msta-B' towed howitzer, indicating ongoing artillery operations in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Kamyševaha): Poddubny (RUF source) video claims destruction of a UAF T-64 tank near Kamyševaha (Southern Donetsk direction) by an RUF strike UAV. This indicates continued RUF use of precision strikes against UAF armor. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF claim).
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka): TASS video claims RUF FPV-drone units from "Rubicon" center destroyed a UAF pickup truck in Konstantinovka. This indicates continued RUF tactical drone operations in this area. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF claim).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three civilians injured in Polohivskyi District, and a woman wounded with homes damaged in Stepnohirska community due to RUF attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast military administration reports a married couple suffered injuries in Stepnohirska community. This highlights ongoing RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure in the south. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: A private house in Khmelnytskyi district damaged from an overnight RUF aerial attack. Confirms RUF deep strikes impacting civilian infrastructure in western Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Volyn Oblast (Lutsk): Regional military administration reports approximately 50 RUF Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and 5 missiles in Volyn airspace overnight, with Lutsk being the main target. Mayor confirms this as the most massive attack on Lutsk to date. "РБК-Україна" publishes photos from the State Emergency Service (DSNS) showing damage in Lutsk from the "massive attack." ASTRA and Operatyvnyi ZSU photo/video messages confirm firefighters liquidating fires at a private enterprise and garage cooperative in Lutsk after the missile attack, and show aftermath images of building damage. This signifies a major RUF aerial assault targeting deep into western Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian air defenders successfully destroyed 17 RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This indicates continued RUF aerial activity in central-eastern Ukraine and effective UAF air defense response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Trebukhiv/Brovary): "РБК-Україна" reports a large fire in Trebukhiv, Kyiv Oblast, resulting from an overnight attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a woman was injured and hospitalized in Brovary due to RUF strikes, with total injured now at two in Kyiv Oblast. This indicates continued RUF targeting of civilian/infrastructure targets in the Kyiv region. RBU-Ukraine confirms active firefighting still ongoing. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zhytomyr Oblast: "РБК-Україна" reports fires in Zhytomyr Oblast due to a massive RUF attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU and ASTRA photos confirm damage to production premises of a carpentry workshop and outbuildings. This confirms deep strikes targeting civilian/infrastructure targets in central Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Bryansk/Moscow Oblasts): RUF Ministry of Defense claims 86 UAF aircraft-type UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. Specifically, Moscow-based sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions from "unknown drones" in Moscow Oblast, including Zelenograd. New video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" captioned "💥Гучний світанок у Московській області" showing flashes/smoke reinforces UAF cross-border activity. This indicates sustained and widespread UAF cross-border drone activity against Russian targets, including potentially sensitive areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Kursk Oblast): RUF 91st Engineer-Sapper Regiment claims discovery of an abandoned arsenal in burned-out UAF vehicles in Kursk border region. This is likely RUF propaganda to demoralize UAF and bolster domestic support. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "ТАСС" report UAF strike on "Городской" beach in Kursk, with 3 injured, including a child, suggesting civilian targeting by UAF, likely RUF disinformation or misattribution. TASS specifically quotes Khinshtein about a 5-year-old child protecting his mother during the attack, which is a clear emotional appeal for propaganda purposes. Sever.Realii (RU opposition source) reports 3 dead, 7 injured from drone strikes in Kursk Oblast. This confirms civilian casualties from UAF drone strikes into Russia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Russian Territory (Belgorod Oblast/Shebekino): ASTRA reports first ambulances in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, observed with anti-drone nets. This indicates RUF adaptation to UAF drone threat in border regions and suggests ongoing threat perception. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Nikolaiv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an RUF reconnaissance UAV detected in Nikolaiv Oblast and engagement measures are being taken. This indicates continued RUF ISR efforts in southern Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kryvyi Rih: Local administration reports the situation remains controlled as of morning 09.07.25, indicating no immediate direct threat despite widespread RUF aerial activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Front: RUF "WarGonzo" map indicates continued localized fighting and artillery duels, consistent with previous assessment of a relatively static axis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF "WarGonzo" map shows activity in the Sumskoye direction, suggesting ongoing border skirmishes or reconnaissance, though no specific tactical details are provided. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant new weather or environmental data reported that substantially alters the previous assessment. Continued heatwave and thunderstorms (where applicable) will impact ground operations and airframe performance.
Moscow reported its warmest night in 39 years (+19.3°C), indicating a general heatwave across the region which may affect RUF logistics and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF: Maintaining active defense posture with localized counterattack capabilities (Toretsk). Demonstrated high volume cross-border UAV operations. Highly engaged in air defense across multiple oblasts against RUF air attacks. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a total of 741 targets neutralized overnight (728 drones, 13 missiles). This includes over 300 Shaheds. UAF successfully employed "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups. Southern Defense Forces report destruction of 18 Shahed-131/136 UAVs in their operational zone. Strategic decision-making ongoing regarding US military aid, with official confirmations now stating supply has resumed. UAF sources (Zaporizhzhia Oblast military admin, Kyiv City Military Admin, General Staff, Operatyvnyi ZSU) are consistently observing daily moments of silence at 0900Z for fallen defenders. 77th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) captured an RUF officer, showcasing successful localized tactical operations and intelligence gathering. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF: Sustaining ground pressure in Kupyansk and positional fighting in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. Executing large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting deep Ukrainian cities (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv Oblast) utilizing a record number of drones (728) and missiles (13). Actively countering UAF cross-border UAVs. Engaged in coordinated information warfare. New RUF video "Операция Z" shows "Geran" (Shahed) drone attacks on UAF equipment/positions, indicating continued reliance on loitering munitions. RUF sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) are actively fundraising for drones (DJI Mavic 3 Pro) for units in Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating reliance on public support for certain equipment and specific needs. Colonelcassad confirms RUF artillery operations (Msta-B) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RUF source "Военкор Котенок" claims "traces of the French Foreign Legion" across the front, especially Donetsk-Kharkiv, and heard on Dnipro, likely a disinformation attempt to suggest NATO direct involvement. RUF ambulances observed with anti-drone nets in Belgorod border region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
NATO/Allies: Poland has brought its Air Defense Forces and aviation to full combat readiness in response to massive RUF strikes on Ukraine. This indicates heightened regional alert levels and direct NATO response to the perceived threat. EU discussing a potential 100 billion Euro fund for Ukraine (ASTRA via Bloomberg, Dvva Mayora), indicating sustained financial support. US Department of State (confirmed by Tsaplienko, STERNENKO, Operatyvnyi ZSU) officially states the resumption of weapon supplies to Ukraine, directly countering earlier reporting and demonstrating sustained commitment. CNN (reported by Tsaplienko, and amplified by TASS) reports Trump did not give instructions to halt weapons supplies to Ukraine but "threatened" Putin/Xi in 2024 to bomb Moscow/Beijing, indicating mixed messaging that RUF is attempting to leverage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates continued capacity for localized ground offensives (Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar), robust defensive operations (Toretsk), and highly coordinated, record-setting multi-vector deep aerial strikes (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv Oblast) utilizing a mix of missiles and a very high volume of drones (728 reported, over 300 of which were Shaheds). Their air defense capabilities are stressed by sustained UAF drone activity but remain effective (86 UAVs claimed shot down). RUF also retains robust information warfare capabilities, leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach attack for emotional appeal. RUF channels like "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" continue to solicit donations for drones, indicating reliance on public support for certain equipment. Continued use of towed artillery (Msta-B) in key sectors suggests adequate ammunition supply for attritional warfare. Adoption of anti-drone nets on ambulances indicates tactical adaptation to UAF drone threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Kupyansk: Continue incremental territorial gains, aiming to consolidate control and push UAF further west. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Toretsk): Maintain pressure, achieve breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, repel UAF counterattacks, and prevent UAF from seizing initiative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Deep Strikes: Continue to target critical and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine to degrade warfighting capacity, deplete UAF air defense munitions, and exert psychological pressure on the population. The increased volume signifies an intent to overwhelm UAF air defenses and force expenditure of expensive interceptors. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Information Warfare: Continue to promote narratives of UAF losses, RUF successes, and UAF aggression against Russian territory (Kursk beach incident with emotional appeals, internal Ukrainian issues like reported TCC officer assassination) to justify their operations and maintain domestic support. RUF will also attempt to generate narratives of direct NATO involvement (e.g., French Foreign Legion claim) and sow discord among allies by amplifying political statements (e.g., Trump's threats). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue attritional ground assaults in key Donbas sectors (Chasiv Yar as main effort) and maintain localized pressure in Kupyansk. Expect further waves of diversified aerial attacks, primarily drones and missiles, targeting deep areas of Ukraine to deplete UAF air defense and inflict economic/psychological damage. The observed record number of drones indicates this will be a sustained tactic. RUF will sustain efforts to counter UAF cross-border UAVs (e.g., anti-drone nets on vehicles) and intensify their information campaigns, including attributing civilian casualties in Russia to UAF and propagating narratives of direct NATO involvement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): No new information suggesting a shift from the previous MDCOA. (Refer to previous report for MDCOA regarding Kharkiv offensive and Donbas breakthrough). The confirmed use of glide bombs and VDV units in Chasiv Yar, as per the previous daily report, underscores the risk of a breakthrough in that sector. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF: Demonstrated a significantly increased scale and depth of aerial attacks, as evidenced by the mass attack on Lutsk and targets across Ukraine, including a record number of drones (728). This suggests an adaptation to overwhelm UAF air defense or deplete ammunition. Confirmed use of "Geran" (Shahed) drones in strikes on UAF positions, highlighting continued reliance on this platform. Continued focus on reconnaissance and counter-UAV operations is noted, with the new observation of anti-drone nets on ambulances in Belgorod indicating a tactical adaptation to counter UAF drone activity in border regions. RUF are also observed using FPV drones against UAF vehicles (pickup, tank). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Sustained very high volume of cross-border UAV attacks, indicating an ongoing UAF strategy to disrupt and degrade Russian targets. Effective air defense responses against record-setting RUF air assaults (741 targets neutralized including 728 drones and 13 missiles, over 300 of which were Shaheds). Confirmed use and scaling of "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups for air defense. Continued tactical flexibility in counterattacks (Toretsk). Demonstrated success in capturing RUF personnel (RUF officer by 77th Airmobile Brigade). Official confirmation of US arms supply resumption provides critical tactical and strategic stability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF: The record-setting number of drones (728) used in recent attacks strongly suggests sustained production or significant resupply of UAVs, particularly Shaheds. This volume indicates a robust industrial base or external support for these platforms. Widespread, multi-vector aerial strikes (including "Geran" drones) suggest continued production or resupply of drones and missiles. RUF units are actively fundraising for specific items like DJI Mavic 3 Pro drones and thermal imagers, suggesting a potential gap in, or high demand for, certain specific capabilities that central supply struggles to meet. This does not necessarily indicate a systemic shortage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (on drone supply, MEDIUM on other specific items).
UAF: Continued sustained operations (air defense, drone attacks, ground counterattacks) imply ongoing, albeit constrained, logistical support. The official confirmation of US weapon supplies resuming is a critical positive development, significantly mitigating the previous long-term logistical threat. UAF channels like "STERNENKO" fundraising for "Optical Russosaw" (thermal imaging/optics) and "РБК-Україна" reporting on Brigade "Rubizh" fundraising for equipment indicates ongoing equipment needs, mirroring RUF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Maintains effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes, including orchestrating a record-setting drone and missile attack. Ground C2 appears robust enough to repel UAF counterattacks and maintain pressure on various axes (Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk), evidenced by successful interdiction of UAF rotation and coordinated FPV drone strikes. Rapid adoption of anti-drone nets on ambulances suggests effective adaptation to tactical threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses to mass attacks, conducting cross-border drone operations, and managing ground engagements, including successful capture of RUF personnel. C2 for strategic messaging (e.g., US aid discussions) remains functional and has been effectively used to convey positive developments. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a layered defensive posture across the country, with active front-line engagements and a robust nationwide air defense network. Proactive offensive actions in the information domain and through cross-border UAV strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and effective air defense responses to mass RUF aerial attacks, evidenced by the 741 targets neutralized. Units engaged in ground combat maintain operational tempo, including successful capture operations. Official confirmation of US aid resumption significantly boosts long-term readiness and sustainability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- RECORD-SETTING Air Defense Performance: Successful interception of 741 RUF aerial targets (728 drones, 13 missiles total) including over 300 Shaheds, 17 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and 18 Shaheds in the Southern Operational Zone, showcasing highly effective layered air defense against a massive assault and successful use of "drone-interceptors" and mobile fire groups.
- Official Resumption of US Weapon Supplies: US Department of State confirmed the resumption of arms supplies, a critical positive development for UAF long-term capabilities and morale.
- Sustained high volume of cross-border UAF drone attacks into Russia, pressuring RUF homeland defense and potentially diverting resources.
- Successful drone strike by 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madya" on an RUF military vehicle on Pokrovsk direction.
- Capture of an RUF officer by the 77th Airmobile Brigade (DShV).
- Maintaining defensive lines against RUF pressure in Toretsk.
- Continued fundraising efforts for critical equipment ("Optical Russosaw").
- EU discussing a 100 billion Euro fund for Ukraine, indicating sustained financial support.
Setbacks:
- Massive RUF aerial attack on Lutsk (Volyn Oblast) and other deep targets (Kyiv, Zhytomyr), indicating RUF ability to penetrate UAF air defenses in certain areas or overwhelm them, leading to damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties (Lutsk, Brovary, Zhytomyr, 2 injured in Kyiv Oblast).
- Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts from RUF strikes.
- RUF claims of pushing UAF from Kupyansk positions and repelling UAF counterattacks in Toretsk, if independently verified, represent tactical setbacks.
- Ongoing intense pressure on Chasiv Yar, with observed successful RUF interdiction of UAF rotation, signifies a continuous threat of tactical breakthrough in a key sector.
- Reported UAF drone strikes causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (3 dead, 7 injured) will be heavily exploited by RUF for information warfare purposes.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT due to the unprecedented intensity and scale of RUF aerial attacks (741 targets). While US aid has resumed, the volume of interceptors expended during such attacks remains a significant concern for sustained defense.
ISR/Night Vision: Continued need for thermal imagers and advanced optics ("Optical Russosaw") for both ground forces and drone operators.
External Military Aid: The official resumption of US arms supplies and the EU fund discussion are highly positive. However, the sheer volume of recent RUF air attacks underscores the urgency of rapid delivery and continued commitment. Continued fundraising by UAF units (e.g., "Rubizh" brigade) indicates ongoing equipment shortfalls at the unit level.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "TASS" continue to broadcast claims of successful RUF air defense (86 UAVs shot down) and attribute cross-border attacks to UAF, aiming to project strength and justify ongoing operations. The attribution of a strike on a civilian beach in Kursk to UAF, with emotional appeals regarding a child protecting his mother (TASS, Khinshtein), is a clear attempt to demonize UAF and generate domestic support for RUF actions. "WarGonzo" actively promotes RUF strikes deep into Ukraine. "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" continues to fundraise, which could also be a subtle message of resource needs or a genuine call for support, while also disseminating videos of "Geran" drone effectiveness. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" and "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posting images of "successfully demobilized" personnel (likely deceased UAF) is a psychological operation to demoralize UAF. RUF sources are also amplifying politically charged statements attributed to former President Trump regarding hypothetical threats to Moscow/Beijing to influence perceptions of Western support, as well as claims of "French Foreign Legion" presence on the front line to justify escalation. RUF sources also amplifying unverified claims of internal UAF issues (e.g., assassination of TCC deputy head in Kyiv). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: "Operativny ZSU" and "STERNENKO" highlight the official resumption of US military aid and emphasize the unprecedented number of RUF targets neutralized (741) to counter negative narratives about aid suspension and demonstrate UAF resilience. "RBC-Ukraine" and local administrations focus on the impact of RUF strikes on civilian areas (Lutsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Brovary) to highlight RUF aggression. UAF channels like "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" promote messages of resilience ("Kherson, watermelons are growing") and counter Russian justifications for the war by highlighting Russian-speaking casualties caused by RUF. UAF sources are also consistently promoting daily moments of silence for fallen defenders to galvanize national unity. UAF is also effectively using combat footage (e.g., drone strike by 414th Brigade, capture of RUF officer by 77th Brigade) for morale boosting and information effect. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: The record-setting large-scale aerial attacks on cities like Lutsk, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr will significantly impact civilian morale and create widespread anxiety. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage will fuel anti-RUF sentiment. News regarding the official resumption of US military aid and a potential EU fund will provide a much-needed morale boost and reassurance regarding sustained support. The successful neutralization of 741 RUF targets will be a critical morale booster, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and resilience. The "watermelons in Kherson" message from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" aims to evoke resilience and continuity. Consistent observation of "minutes of silence" for fallen soldiers reinforces national resolve. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: State-controlled media will reinforce narratives of successful defense against "Ukrainian aggression" (86 UAVs shot down) and portray RUF as effectively prosecuting the "special military operation," leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach strike (with emotional details about a child) to galvanize support and portray UAF as targeting civilians. News of RUF internal issues (Sollers sales decline, alleged misconduct by "SVO veteran") are unlikely to reach a broad audience or are downplayed. Calls for donations for equipment like drones (Dnevnik Desantnika) could indicate popular support or a perceived need to bridge supply gaps. The official US confirmation of resumed aid to Ukraine may be framed as evidence of Western aggression. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Support for Ukraine: The US Department of State (confirmed by multiple UAF-aligned sources) has officially stated the resumption of weapon supplies to Ukraine, a crucial development directly countering previous negative reports. Bloomberg reports the EU is considering a 100 billion Euro fund for Ukraine, signaling robust financial commitment. Poland's heightened air defense readiness remains a positive signal of regional solidarity. UAF Foreign Minister's discussions on diplomatic missions indicate ongoing efforts to secure and maintain international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diplomatic Engagements: Ukrainian Foreign Minister's discussions on diplomatic missions (US Ambassador) indicate ongoing efforts to secure and maintain international support despite potential challenges. RBU-Ukraine reports on EU Commissioner Marta Kos discussing Hungary's veto, EU accession, and aid, indicating ongoing, complex diplomatic processes. RUF sources (Basurin) are attempting to highlight and potentially exacerbate diplomatic conflicts (e.g., Azerbaijan-Russia relations) to distract or portray Russia as a strong regional player. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in the Donbas, particularly on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk direction, and persist with localized pressure in the Kupyansk area. They will likely attempt to exploit any perceived UAF weaknesses or ammunition shortages, though the aid picture appears more stable now. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency and Volume of Aerial Strikes: RUF will likely maintain a high frequency and volume of combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets (including logistics, energy, and population centers) to further deplete UAF air defense munitions and exert psychological damage. The record-setting 728 drones observed in the last attack indicates a continued reliance on this tactic to overwhelm UAF air defenses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations: RUF will intensify information operations to highlight any UAF battlefield setbacks, amplify narratives of internal divisions among Ukraine's allies, and demoralize Ukrainian society, specifically using incidents like the Kursk beach attack to frame UAF as aggressors and leveraging political statements for perceived advantage. RUF will also attempt to manufacture and disseminate evidence of direct NATO/Western troop involvement to justify their actions. Expect continued focus on alleged internal Ukrainian issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas, potentially overwhelming UAF's ability to conduct a two-front defense. This remains the MDCOA despite potential positive aid developments, as the force concentration in Belgorod is confirmed. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains, potentially triggering a cascading collapse of adjacent sectors. The persistent pressure and use of elite VDV units on Chasiv Yar increases the risk of this scenario. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-12 hours): Continued high-intensity air defense engagements across Ukraine, particularly in response to follow-on RUF aerial attacks which will likely remain at high volume. UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving US aid situation (Patriot news, EU fund) to maintain morale and reassure allies.
SHORT-TERM (12-72 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas (especially Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk). Continued UAF cross-border drone activity is highly probable. Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions, even with confirmed aid, given the ongoing threat of deep strikes and recent high expenditures. Rapid integration of newly confirmed US aid into planning.
MID-TERM (72 hours - 1 week): The precise nature and timing of any new US and EU aid (e.g., Patriot system deployment, 100 billion Euro fund) will become clearer. This period will be critical for UAF to adapt its strategy based on confirmed resource availability and for allies to solidify aid commitments. Decision point for UAF to implement significant force restructuring or doctrinal changes based on evolving resource constraints.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

US/EU Military and Financial Aid Delivery Timelines:
- GAP: While the resumption of US military aid is confirmed, precise delivery timelines for key systems and munitions, including Patriot systems, and the implementation mechanisms and timelines for the proposed EU 100 billion Euro fund, remain unclear. This impacts UAF planning for resource allocation and future operations.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT (diplomatic and intelligence channels), OSINT (official US/EU statements, reputable financial and defense media analysis), and IMINT (observing changes in aid shipments if possible) to ascertain the precise status and immediate/long-term impact on UAF capabilities and financial stability.
RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory after Record Attack:
- GAP: Comprehensive assessment of RUF's current production rates, remaining stockpiles, and supply chain resilience for long-range missiles (e.g., Kh-101, Kinzhal, Iskander) and various types of attack UAVs (e.g., Shahed-131/136, Lancet, "Geran") following the expenditure of 728 drones and 13 missiles in a single night. This event indicates a potentially larger inventory or production capacity than previously assessed.
- CR: Utilize SIGINT, HUMINT, and open-source intelligence from sanctioned entities to track RUF defense industrial base output and identify any new procurement sources or surges in production. Assess the sustainability of such high-volume attacks.
RUF Ground Reserve Commitment and Intent (Kharkiv/Belgorod):
- GAP: Precise size, composition, and readiness of the Russian grouping of forces in Belgorod remains unconfirmed, particularly after recent shaping operations. The ultimate strategic intent is unclear: a limited buffer zone operation, a large-scale feint to draw Ukrainian reserves, or a full-scale assault aimed at encircling Kharkiv. This remains a critical gap from the previous daily report.
- CR: Prioritize strategic ISR (satellite, long-range UAVs), SIGINT, and HUMINT to monitor force movements, command communications, and logistical preparations in the Belgorod region and behind Donbas front lines. Special attention on identifying any operational-level command posts or forward logistics nodes.
RUF Artillery Sustainability in Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk):
- GAP: Sustainability of Russian artillery fire rates, specifically their shell consumption versus logistical replenishment capacity, particularly in the Chasiv Yar, Krasnoarmeysk, and Pokrovsk sectors, is a critical unknown, especially given reports of heavy fire and confirmed continued operations of towed artillery.
- CR: Monitor RUF logistical lines, observe changes in artillery density/activity over time, and utilize SIGINT to intercept any communications regarding shell expenditure or resupply difficulties.
Assessment of UAF Cross-Border Drone Strike Effectiveness and Impact:
- GAP: While RUF reports claim high numbers of UAF UAVs shot down, a clear assessment of the actual impact (damage, casualties, disruption) of UAF cross-border drone operations on Russian military and civilian infrastructure is needed to evaluate strategic effect. The extent of civilian casualties (e.g., Kursk) also needs UAF verification to inform messaging.
- CR: Leverage OSINT (Russian official and unofficial channels, local reporting) and HUMINT (if available) to verify and assess battle damage, economic disruption, and civilian casualties from UAF drone strikes. Conduct post-strike analysis to refine targeting and optimize effects.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

Immediate Air Defense Munition Resupply and Optimization: Given the unprecedented volume of the recent RUF aerial attack, immediately prioritize and expedite the resupply of air defense munitions to all active air defense units, especially for Patriot systems. Conduct an urgent assessment of remaining interceptor stocks and implement a dynamic allocation strategy to protect critical infrastructure while maintaining front-line air superiority.
- Action: Coordinate with international partners for emergency air defense munition deliveries. Adjust engagement parameters to conserve high-value munitions where feasible against lower-priority targets (e.g., small drones). Scale up domestic production and "drone-interceptor" programs.
- POC: Air Force Command, Logistics Command.
Reinforce Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk with Anti-Armor and Counter-Assault Capabilities: Recognize Chasiv Yar as the current RUF main effort. Prioritize the immediate allocation of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), and FPV drones to units defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk to specifically target dismounted VDV assault groups, light armored vehicles, and low-flying attack helicopters. Expedite delivery of artillery and mortar rounds to these sectors. The recent interdiction of UAF rotation suggests RUF is actively targeting logistical flow to this area.
- Action: Conduct urgent resupply of ATGM and FPV drone munitions to Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk. Reinforce with specialized anti-armor teams. Implement anti-UAV measures along supply routes.
- POC: Ground Forces Command, Logistics Command.
Execute Pre-emptive Deep Strikes on Belgorod Concentrated Forces: Leveraging identified targets from CR #3, execute targeted strikes against Russian artillery positions, C2 nodes, and troop concentrations in the Belgorod Oblast to disrupt any impending offensive and degrade their offensive capacity before it commences. The continued RUF strikes on Kharkiv confirm the intent to shape this battlespace.
- Action: Authorize and plan long-range strike missions using available assets (e.g., ATACMS, cruise missiles). Prioritize targets identified by ISR.
- POC: General Staff, Operational Commands responsible for long-range strikes.
Proactively Manage Public and International Messaging on US/EU Aid and Air Defense Successes, and Counter RUF Disinformation: Develop clear, consistent, and proactive messaging to the Ukrainian public and international partners regarding the official resumption of US military aid and the potential EU 100 billion Euro fund. Critically, highlight the successful neutralization of 741 RUF aerial targets to reinforce UAF capabilities and boost national morale. Counter Russian disinformation campaigns (e.g., Kursk beach incident, political rhetoric, "French Legion" claims, TCC officer assassination claims) with verified facts and strong condemnations, and be prepared to address UAF actions that result in civilian casualties in Russia with transparent, factual information. Utilize successful combat footage for positive information effects.
- Action: Conduct press briefings and public statements highlighting continued international support and UAF air defense effectiveness. Immediately refute false RUF claims about UAF targeting civilians. Develop a rapid response team to counter real-time RUF disinformation.
- POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

END OF REPORT

Situation Report