Sitrep 2025-07-09 05:25:40

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 090525Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk): Russian forces (RUF) continue pressure, reportedly pushing Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) from northwestern outskirts of Kupyansk. RUF reconnaissance units claim to have identified UAF UAV operator positions in a forested area, indicating ongoing ISR and counter-UAV efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk): RUF ("Voenkory Russkoy Vesny") claim a UAF counterattack with tanks and motorcycles near Bilaya Gora-Dyleyevka was repelled. This confirms continued active UAF counter-operations in the heavily contested Toretsk sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three civilians injured in Polohivskyi District, and a woman wounded with homes damaged in Stepnohirska community due to RUF attacks. This highlights ongoing RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure in the south. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: A private house in Khmelnytskyi district damaged from an overnight RUF aerial attack. Confirms RUF deep strikes impacting civilian infrastructure in western Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Volyn Oblast (Lutsk): Regional military administration reports approximately 50 RUF Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and 5 missiles in Volyn airspace overnight, with Lutsk being the main target. Mayor confirms this as the most massive attack on Lutsk to date. This signifies a major RUF aerial assault targeting deep into western Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Reinforced by new message from "Два майора" on Volyn Oblast.)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian air defenders successfully destroyed 17 RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This indicates continued RUF aerial activity in central-eastern Ukraine and effective UAF air defense response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Bryansk/Moscow Oblasts): RUF Ministry of Defense claims 86 UAF aircraft-type UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. Specifically, Moscow-based sources (RBC-Ukraine) report explosions from "unknown drones" in Moscow Oblast, including Zelenograd. New video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" captioned "💥Гучний світанок у Московській області" showing flashes/smoke reinforces UAF cross-border activity. This indicates sustained and widespread UAF cross-border drone activity against Russian targets, including potentially sensitive areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Kursk Oblast): RUF 91st Engineer-Sapper Regiment claims discovery of an abandoned arsenal in burned-out UAF vehicles in Kursk border region. This is likely RUF propaganda to demoralize UAF and bolster domestic support. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" and "ТАСС" report UAF strike on "Городской" beach in Kursk, with 3 injured, including a child, suggesting civilian targeting by UAF, likely RUF disinformation or misattribution. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Kryvyi Rih: Local administration reports the situation remains controlled as of morning 09.07.25, indicating no immediate direct threat despite widespread RUF aerial activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF "WarGonzo" map and text indicate continued pressure on Chasiv Yar, with possible incremental gains on the eastern outskirts, consistent with RUF main effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Front: RUF "WarGonzo" map indicates continued localized fighting and artillery duels, consistent with previous assessment of a relatively static axis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF "WarGonzo" map shows activity in the Sumskoye direction, suggesting ongoing border skirmishes or reconnaissance, though no specific tactical details are provided. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant new weather or environmental data reported that substantially alters the previous assessment. Continued heatwave and thunderstorms (where applicable) will impact ground operations and airframe performance.
Moscow reported its warmest night in 39 years (+19.3°C), indicating a general heatwave across the region which may affect RUF logistics and personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF: Maintaining active defense posture with localized counterattack capabilities (Toretsk). Demonstrated high volume cross-border UAV operations. Highly engaged in air defense across multiple oblasts against RUF air attacks. Strategic decision-making ongoing regarding US military aid, with new reports suggesting potential positive developments ("STERNENKO", "Оперативний ЗСУ" on Patriot). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF: Sustaining ground pressure in Kupyansk and positional fighting in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. Executing large-scale, multi-vector aerial attacks targeting deep Ukrainian cities (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk). Actively countering UAF cross-border UAVs. Engaged in coordinated information warfare. New RUF video "Операция Z" shows "Geran" (Shahed) drone attacks on UAF equipment/positions, indicating continued reliance on loitering munitions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
NATO/Allies: Poland has brought its Air Defense Forces and aviation to full combat readiness in response to massive RUF strikes on Ukraine. This indicates heightened regional alert levels and direct NATO response to the perceived threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates continued capacity for localized ground offensives (Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar), robust defensive operations (Toretsk), and highly coordinated, multi-vector deep aerial strikes (Lutsk, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk) utilizing a mix of missiles and drones (confirmed "Geran" use). Their air defense capabilities are stressed by sustained UAF drone activity but remain effective (86 UAVs claimed shot down). RUF also retains robust information warfare capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Kupyansk: Continue incremental territorial gains, aiming to consolidate control and push UAF further west. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Toretsk): Maintain pressure, achieve breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, repel UAF counterattacks, and prevent UAF from seizing initiative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Deep Strikes: Continue to target critical and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine to degrade warfighting capacity, deplete UAF air defense munitions, and exert psychological pressure on the population. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Information Warfare: Continue to promote narratives of UAF losses, RUF successes, and UAF aggression against Russian territory (Kursk beach incident) to justify their operations and maintain domestic support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will continue attritional ground assaults in key Donbas sectors (Chasiv Yar as main effort) and maintain localized pressure in Kupyansk. Expect further waves of diversified aerial attacks, primarily drones and missiles, targeting deep areas of Ukraine to deplete UAF air defense and inflict economic/psychological damage. RUF will sustain efforts to counter UAF cross-border UAVs and intensify their information campaigns, including attributing civilian casualties in Russia to UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): No new information suggesting a shift from the previous MDCOA. (Refer to previous report for MDCOA regarding Kharkiv offensive and Donbas breakthrough). The confirmed use of glide bombs and VDV units in Chasiv Yar, as per the previous daily report, underscores the risk of a breakthrough in that sector. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF: Demonstrated a significantly increased scale and depth of aerial attacks, as evidenced by the mass attack on Lutsk and targets across Ukraine. This suggests an adaptation to overwhelm UAF air defense or deplete ammunition. Confirmed use of "Geran" (Shahed) drones in strikes on UAF positions, highlighting continued reliance on this platform. Continued focus on reconnaissance and counter-UAV operations is noted. RUF "Soldiers of the Russian Spring" continue to request thermal imagers, indicating ongoing equipment needs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Sustained very high volume of cross-border UAV attacks, indicating an ongoing UAF strategy to disrupt and degrade Russian targets. Effective air defense responses against large RUF air assaults (Dnipropetrovsk). Continued tactical flexibility in counterattacks (Toretsk). Reports of potential Patriot system transfer indicate ongoing efforts to bolster air defense. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF: Widespread, multi-vector aerial strikes (including "Geran" drones) suggest continued production or resupply of drones and missiles. RUF channel "WarGonzo" claiming strikes on Lutsk and Zhytomyr indicates capability for deep strikes. "Soldiers of the Russian Spring" requesting thermal imagers suggests a potential gap in, or high demand for, certain night vision capabilities. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
UAF: Continued sustained operations (air defense, drone attacks, ground counterattacks) imply ongoing, albeit constrained, logistical support. The reported US decision to suspend arms supplies (if confirmed) poses a significant long-term logistical threat. However, recent reporting by "STERNENKO" and "Оперативний ЗСУ" on a potential Patriot transfer suggests this situation may be fluid or misinterpreted. UAF channels like "STERNENKO" fundraising for "Optical Russosaw" (thermal imaging/optics) indicates ongoing equipment needs, mirroring RUF. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Maintains effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain aerial strikes and synchronized information operations. Ground C2 appears robust enough to repel UAF counterattacks and maintain pressure on various axes (Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Demonstrates effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses to mass attacks, conducting cross-border drone operations, and managing ground engagements. C2 for strategic messaging (e.g., US aid discussions) remains functional. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a layered defensive posture across the country, with active front-line engagements and a robust nationwide air defense network. Proactive offensive actions in the information domain and through cross-border UAV strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and effective air defense responses to mass RUF aerial attacks. Units engaged in ground combat maintain operational tempo. Concerns regarding long-term sustainability due to potential external aid disruptions persist, but positive indications regarding Patriot systems could mitigate this. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Successful interception of 17 RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showcasing effective layered air defense.
- Sustained high volume of cross-border UAF drone attacks into Russia, pressuring RUF homeland defense and potentially diverting resources.
- Maintaining defensive lines against RUF pressure in Toretsk.
- Continued fundraising efforts for critical equipment ("Optical Russosaw").
- Reports of the US considering additional Patriot system transfer ("STERNENKO", "Оперативний ЗСУ") are a significant positive development, indicating potential mitigation of previous aid concerns.
Setbacks:
- Massive RUF aerial attack on Lutsk (Volyn Oblast) and other deep targets, indicating RUF ability to penetrate UAF air defenses in certain areas or overwhelm them.
- Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts from RUF strikes.
- RUF claims of pushing UAF from Kupyansk positions and repelling UAF counterattacks in Toretsk, if independently verified, represent tactical setbacks.
- Ongoing intense pressure on Chasiv Yar, as indicated by RUF "WarGonzo" maps, signifies a continuous threat of tactical breakthrough in a key sector.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Air Defense Munitions: Critical and immediate requirement due to the increased intensity and scale of RUF aerial attacks, particularly the mass strikes on western Ukraine. The potential Patriot system transfer is a positive sign but immediate munition needs remain.
ISR/Night Vision: Continued need for thermal imagers and advanced optics ("Optical Russosaw") for both ground forces and drone operators.
External Military Aid: The previous reports of a pause in US arms supplies created significant uncertainty. New reporting regarding consideration of additional Patriot systems ("STERNENKO", "Оперативний ЗСУ") suggests a dynamic situation. Fighterbomber's assessment that the "pause in supplies... ended, effectively not having started" (Fighterbomber, 0520Z JUL 25) indicates that the widely reported 'suspension' may have been a temporary administrative hold or misinterpretation. This is a critical development for UAF sustainment.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: "Dnevnik Desantnika" and "TASS" continue to broadcast claims of successful RUF air defense (86 UAVs shot down) and attribute cross-border attacks to UAF, aiming to project strength and justify ongoing operations. The attribution of a strike on a civilian beach in Kursk to UAF (TASS, Дневник Десантника) is a clear attempt to demonize UAF and generate domestic support for RUF actions. "WarGonzo" actively promotes RUF strikes deep into Ukraine. "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" continues to fundraise, which could also be a subtle message of resource needs or a genuine call for support, while also disseminating videos of "Geran" drone effectiveness. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" and "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posting images of "successfully demobilized" personnel (likely deceased UAF) is a psychological operation to demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: "Operativny ZSU" and "STERNENKO" highlight potential positive developments regarding US military aid (Patriot systems) to counter negative narratives about aid suspension. "RBC-Ukraine" and local administrations focus on the impact of RUF strikes on civilian areas (Lutsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi) to highlight RUF aggression. UAF channels like "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" promote messages of resilience ("Kherson, watermelons are growing") and counter Russian justifications for the war by highlighting Russian-speaking casualties caused by RUF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: The large-scale aerial attacks on cities like Lutsk and Zhytomyr will significantly impact civilian morale and create widespread anxiety. Civilian casualties will fuel anti-RUF sentiment. News regarding potential suspension of US military aid was a significant concern, but positive news about Patriot systems (if confirmed and widely disseminated) could provide a much-needed morale boost. Continued successful UAF air defense operations (Dnipropetrovsk) offer counter-narratives to sustain resilience. The "watermelons in Kherson" message from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" aims to evoke resilience and continuity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: State-controlled media will reinforce narratives of successful defense against "Ukrainian aggression" (86 UAVs shot down) and portray RUF as effectively prosecuting the "special military operation," leveraging incidents like the Kursk beach strike to galvanize support and portray UAF as targeting civilians. News of RUF internal issues (Sollers sales decline, alleged misconduct by "SVO veteran") are unlikely to reach a broad audience or are downplayed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Support for Ukraine: The reported CNN statement regarding US Defense Secretary Hagset suspending arms supplies without White House notification, and the subsequent clarification by Trump (RBC-Ukraine) as an assessment rather than a halt, has been further contradicted by "Fighterbomber" (RUF source) suggesting the "pause" has ended. Crucially, "STERNENKO" and "Оперативний ЗСУ" report WSJ claims that Trump is considering additional Patriot systems, indicating a potentially more favorable and active aid posture than previously understood. Poland's heightened air defense readiness remains a positive signal of regional solidarity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diplomatic Engagements: Ukrainian Foreign Minister's discussions on diplomatic missions (US Ambassador) indicate ongoing efforts to secure and maintain international support despite potential challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare: RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in the Donbas, particularly on Chasiv Yar, and persist with localized pressure in the Kupyansk area. They will likely attempt to exploit any perceived UAF weaknesses or ammunition shortages, though the aid picture appears more stable now. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency and Volume of Aerial Strikes: RUF will likely maintain a high frequency and volume of combined drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets (including logistics, energy, and population centers) to further deplete UAF air defense munitions and exert psychological damage. The confirmed "Geran" drone use suggests continued reliance on this platform. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations: RUF will intensify information operations to highlight any UAF battlefield setbacks, amplify narratives of internal divisions among Ukraine's allies, and demoralize Ukrainian society, specifically using incidents like the Kursk beach attack to frame UAF as aggressors. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas, potentially overwhelming UAF's ability to conduct a two-front defense. This remains the MDCOA despite potential positive aid developments, as the force concentration in Belgorod is confirmed. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains, potentially triggering a cascading collapse of adjacent sectors. The persistent pressure and use of elite VDV units on Chasiv Yar increases the risk of this scenario. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-12 hours): Continued high-intensity air defense engagements across Ukraine, particularly in response to follow-on RUF aerial attacks. UAF decision point on how to manage and publicly address the evolving US aid situation (Patriot news) to maintain morale and reassure allies.
SHORT-TERM (12-72 hours): Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk and Donbas (especially Chasiv Yar). Continued UAF cross-border drone activity is highly probable. Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions, even with potential new aid, given the ongoing threat of deep strikes.
MID-TERM (72 hours - 1 week): The precise nature and timing of any new US aid (e.g., Patriot system deployment) will become clearer. This period will be critical for UAF to adapt its strategy based on confirmed resource availability and for allies to solidify aid commitments. Decision point for UAF to implement significant force restructuring or doctrinal changes based on evolving resource constraints.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

US Military Aid Status and Impact:
- GAP: Definitive confirmation and granular details regarding the reported "un-paused" US military aid and the specific timeline/delivery of potential additional Patriot systems, including their configuration and munition stocks.
- CR: Prioritize HUMINT (diplomatic and intelligence channels), OSINT (official US statements, reputable media analysis from the WSJ, CNN, etc.), and IMINT (observing changes in aid shipments if possible) to ascertain the precise status and immediate/long-term impact on UAF capabilities.
RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
- GAP: Comprehensive assessment of RUF's current production rates, remaining stockpiles, and supply chain resilience for long-range missiles (e.g., Kh-101, Kinzhal, Iskander) and various types of attack UAVs (e.g., Shahed-131/136, Lancet, "Geran"). The mass attack on Lutsk and confirmed "Geran" use suggests significant inventory.
- CR: Utilize SIGINT, HUMINT, and open-source intelligence from sanctioned entities to track RUF defense industrial base output and identify any new procurement sources.
RUF Ground Reserve Commitment and Intent (Kharkiv/Belgorod):
- GAP: Precise size, composition, and readiness of the Russian grouping of forces in Belgorod remains unconfirmed. The ultimate strategic intent is unclear: a limited buffer zone operation, a large-scale feint to draw Ukrainian reserves, or a full-scale assault aimed at encircling Kharkiv. This remains a critical gap from the previous daily report.
- CR: Prioritize strategic ISR (satellite, long-range UAVs), SIGINT, and HUMINT to monitor force movements, command communications, and logistical preparations in the Belgorod region and behind Donbas front lines. Special attention on identifying any operational-level command posts or forward logistics nodes.
RUF Artillery Sustainability in Donbas:
- GAP: Sustainability of Russian artillery fire rates, specifically their shell consumption versus logistical replenishment capacity, particularly in the Chasiv Yar sector, is a critical unknown.
- CR: Monitor RUF logistical lines, observe changes in artillery density/activity over time, and utilize SIGINT to intercept any communications regarding shell expenditure or resupply difficulties.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

Optimize Air Defense Posture based on Evolving Aid Picture: Given the potential for additional Patriot systems and the sustained RUF deep strike threat, immediately conduct a comprehensive re-evaluation of national air defense coverage. Prioritize deployment of newly acquired or highly mobile air defense assets to protect critical infrastructure and population centers in western and central Ukraine, while maintaining robust coverage for frontlines.
- Action: Rapidly integrate new Patriot system (if confirmed) into national air defense network. Deploy additional mobile SHORAD to dynamically counter RUF UAVs and cruise missiles.
- POC: Air Force Command, General Staff.
Reinforce Chasiv Yar with Anti-Armor and Counter-Assault Capabilities: Recognize Chasiv Yar as the current RUF main effort. Prioritize the immediate allocation of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), and FPV drones to units defending Chasiv Yar to specifically target dismounted VDV assault groups, light armored vehicles, and low-flying attack helicopters. Expedite delivery of artillery and mortar rounds to this sector.
- Action: Conduct urgent resupply of ATGM and FPV drone munitions to Chasiv Yar. Reinforce with specialized anti-armor teams.
- POC: Ground Forces Command, Logistics Command.
Execute Pre-emptive Deep Strikes on Belgorod Concentrated Forces: Leveraging identified targets from CR #3, execute targeted strikes against Russian artillery positions, C2 nodes, and troop concentrations in the Belgorod Oblast to disrupt any impending offensive and degrade their offensive capacity before it commences.
- Action: Authorize and plan long-range strike missions using available assets (e.g., ATACMS, cruise missiles). Prioritize targets identified by ISR.
- POC: General Staff, Operational Commands responsible for long-range strikes.
Proactively Manage Public and International Messaging on US Aid: Develop clear, consistent, and proactive messaging to the Ukrainian public and international partners regarding the positive developments in US military aid (e.g., Patriot systems). Counter Russian disinformation campaigns (e.g., Kursk beach incident) with verified facts and strong condemnations.
- Action: Conduct press briefings and public statements highlighting continued international support. Immediately refute false RUF claims about UAF targeting civilians.
- POC: Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

END OF REPORT

Situation Report