Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT
TIME: 081024Z JUL 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Reinforce Air Defense for Central and Northern Axes & Southern Front: Immediately allocate additional mobile air defense assets (e.g., Gepard, Avenger, MANPADS teams) to Kharkiv city and its immediate approaches, specifically addressing the new strike UAV threat. Reallocate assets to Chernihiv Oblast and its northern approaches, particularly directing them towards potential UAV vectors originating from Sumy and moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Prioritize night-time coverage and dedicate assets to the Mykolaiv/Odesa axis given renewed Shahed activity and the confirmed injury in Mykolaiv. Maintain vigilance for potential renewed threats in Zaporizhzhia, especially with missile danger and new KAB launches. Deploy immediate air defense enhancements to Kherson Oblast given the new missile threat. Address the UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Leverage any confirmed or pledged Patriot interceptor missiles from the US as a top priority for strategic air defense.
Bolster Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, and Zaporizhzhia Defenses and Protect Rotations & Logistics: Reinforce UAF units holding key road networks and critical terrain in Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar (specifically 'Severny' mine and 'Workshop No. 2' areas), and across the entire Zaporizhzhia front line. Prioritize anti-armor assets (ATGM, FPV drones) and engineer support for defensive fortification, especially given the confirmed "massive offensive" in Zaporizhzhia and RUF's perception of significant UAF force commitment. Implement enhanced movement control measures and counter-battery capabilities to protect UAF rotations from RUF artillery targeting, particularly in the Krasnoarmeysk and now Novohryhorivka directions, incorporating lessons from Воин DV's video of UAF pickup destruction. Immediately assess the threat from RUF claims of fire control over the Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka road and implement contingency logistics plans or counter-measures. Immediately verify and counter RUF attempts to create "fire pockets" and encircle UAF groupings, as claimed near Zelenaya Dolina. Address RUF advances in Kamenskoye, Komary, Yablunivka, and Toretsk.
Counter TCC Targeting and Adapt Mobilization: Implement enhanced physical and electronic security measures for all Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs), particularly in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava. Accelerate the implementation of plans for TCC dispersal and remote service provision to reduce their vulnerability and ensure continuity of mobilization. Leverage video from "Операция Z" / "Военкоры Русской Весны" for insights into RUF's perception of UAF TCC adaptation. Immediately investigate the Alex Parker Returns claim of a TCC officer killing a conscript's mother in Kharkiv, and if false, issue a strong, rapid, and public rebuttal.
Expedite Internal Military Accountability: Expedite investigations into alleged corruption within the Ministry of Defense (e.g., unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers). Implement robust quality control checks for all incoming military supplies, especially from domestic contractors, to ensure frontline units receive effective equipment. The recent court order against Arslanov in Russia and new lawsuits against Voentelecom, and the investigation into Pavel Popov, and new accusations against ex-Deputy Shoigu highlight the importance of such actions for public trust. Expedite investigations and prosecutions of Ukrainian officials involved in corruption, such as those from "Ліси України."
Capitalize on RUF Internal Instability and Counter-Intelligence Vulnerabilities: Prepare and launch information operations campaigns highlighting alleged high-level corruption (e.g., Arslanov's case, Voentelecom lawsuits, Kursk defensive structures, Pavel Popov investigation, Narek Karapetyan detention in Armenia, new accusations against ex-Deputy Shoigu, the "Suicide Squad" infographic, "Yuzhuralzoloto" asset seizure, Peskov's comments on Starovoyt) suspicious deaths (including Starovoyt's alleged suicide, Korneichuk), military misconduct (e.g., Kalmykia rape, alleged sexual assault at children's camp, Kemerovo Oblast sexual assault, murder of family members), and distressing social issues within Russia (e.g., EGE exam violations, search of Khromenkov's home, cessation of "Golos" movement, SOTAvision journalist Tkacheva, fraudsters using deepfakes, mass water poisoning in Dagestan, Rostov military truck accident, Tatarstan plane crash, searches in Syktyvkar, grenade explosion in Ryazan, searches of additional human rights activists, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники on conscription raids). Specifically highlight the reported instance of the ex-corporal selling secret information to UAF, emphasizing Russian vulnerabilities. Also emphasize economic challenges that may prompt measures like increased minimum wage proposals. Counter RUF's attempts to project internal strength (e.g., "Everything for Victory!" forum, community policing images, civilian aid for thermal imagers, family values messaging, saving puppies) by exposing the realities of their domestic issues and the demographic decline. Directly counter the narrative of the 'International Public Tribunal' and the emotional video of Kriukova Nina Fedorovna by highlighting the widespread and documented RUF atrocities against Ukrainian civilians, including the confirmed 20 injured in Zaporizhzhia and 51-year-old injured in Mykolaiv, and ongoing attacks in Nikopolshchyna, and the 4 fatalities in Kyiv. Actively leverage the captured Russian soldier's testimony (Mykolaiv Vanyok) about internal RUF morale and foreign fighters to undermine RUF recruitment and cohesion. Expose the alleged actions of "Akhmat" blocking detachments in Kursk Oblast.
Develop Counter-Tactics for Lone Infantry Assaults, Demining Operations, and Border Mining: Analyze recent reports of RUF employing lone, lightly equipped infantry and their new demining operations in captured areas. Develop and disseminate immediate counter-tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) for frontline units to effectively neutralize these threats and prevent them from compromising defensive positions or intelligence gathering. Simultaneously, review and enhance UAF's own remote mining TTPs, particularly along border areas, based on RUF's reported awareness and countermeasures.
Leverage US Aid Statements for Strategic Communications: Utilize recent public statements from US figures (e.g., Trump, Netanyahu's Nobel nomination) and the Pentagon's confirmation confirming continued weapon supply to Ukraine in strategic communications. This will help counter RUF propaganda narratives about dwindling Western support (including the "cannons over grain" narrative, and those amplified by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" and "Старше Эдды") and reinforce domestic and international confidence. Specifically emphasize the reported commitment of 10 Patriot interceptor missiles and US assistance in additional supply channels.
Counter POW Exploitation and Recent RUF Disinformation: Develop and implement immediate counter-narratives and support measures to mitigate the psychological impact of RUF's exploitation of Ukrainian POWs, especially in light of the recently released video and the "bombed" Ukrainian propaganda image. This should include direct communication with families and public statements refuting RUF claims of poor UAF treatment. Simultaneously, immediately debunk and counter new RUF claims of "South Korean mercenaries" and "Aidar Battalion losses" in Sumy, as well as the claim of a sniper engaging a "Baba Yaga" drone. Actively counter RUF narratives on UAF strikes on Russian territory, providing context and emphasizing military targets (e.g., Cheboksary strike). Counter RUF claims of tactical successes (e.g., Tyotkino, Zelenaya Dolina, FPV drone successes against "Skala" and at Kamenskoye, 37th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade in South Donetsk, Lyptsi direction, claimed T-64BV destruction, Lancet strike, pickup destruction by Spetsnaz) with verified UAF reports. Address RUF claims of UAF drones blowing up their own personnel attempting to surrender. Counter RUF claims of internal Ukrainian divisions (e.g., schoolchildren ignoring state language). Directly counter RUF channels promoting their narratives. Address the RUF propaganda claiming UAF soldiers are demanding gratitude/extorting civilians. Counter the RUF narrative amplified by "Два майора" about NATO air forces in Poland, framing it as a defensive posture. Address the Bloomberg report on Chinese assistance to Russia's drone industry in public messaging to highlight international complicity. Leverage Rybar's report on Japan/Philippines alliance against China to highlight global military realignments and counter RUF framing.
Enhance Communication System Protection and Redundancy: Immediately assess vulnerabilities of critical communication systems, particularly Starlink terminals, following confirmed RUF targeting. Implement enhanced physical security measures, camouflage, and operational procedures to mitigate detection and destruction. Explore and deploy alternative or redundant communication methods to ensure continuity of command and control even under direct attack.
Address Internal Security Threats (Extremism & Natural Disasters): Maintain vigilance and proactive measures against internal threats, such as the display of extremist symbols, to preserve internal order and counter any potential RUF exploitation of such incidents. Simultaneously, rapidly deploy resources to assist areas affected by widespread power outages due to bad weather to mitigate humanitarian impact and prevent further disruption to logistics and morale. Address the ongoing issue of illegal border crossings, assessing if they are related to internal security or combat activities, and ensure appropriate responses are in place. Prioritize investigation and neutralization of FSB spy networks, as identified in Sumy Oblast and Rivne. Address the fatal traffic accident in Zhytomyr involving a law enforcement officer, ensuring transparency and accountability to maintain public trust. Continue prosecuting internal corruption cases (e.g., "Ліси України").
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