Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT
TIME: 080600Z JUL 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Reinforce Air Defense for Central and Northern Axes: Immediately allocate additional mobile air defense assets (e.g., Gepard, Avenger, MANPADS teams) to Kharkiv city and its immediate approaches. Reallocate assets to Chernihiv Oblast and its northern approaches, particularly directing them towards potential UAV vectors originating from Sumy and moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Prioritize night-time coverage and dedicate assets to the Mykolaiv/Odesa axis given renewed Shahed activity and the confirmed injury in Mykolaiv. Maintain vigilance for potential renewed threats in Zaporizhzhia, especially with the re-issued alert and confirmed missile danger.
Bolster Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia Defenses and Protect Rotations: Reinforce UAF units holding key road networks and critical terrain in Kupyansk and across the entire Zaporizhzhia front line. Prioritize anti-armor assets (ATGM, FPV drones) and engineer support for defensive fortification, especially given the confirmed "massive offensive" in Zaporizhzhia and RUF's perception of significant UAF force commitment. Implement enhanced movement control measures and counter-battery capabilities to protect UAF rotations from RUF artillery targeting, particularly in the Krasnoarmeysk and now Novohryhorivka directions.
Counter TCC Targeting and Adapt Mobilization: Implement enhanced physical and electronic security measures for all Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs), particularly in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava. Accelerate the implementation of plans for TCC dispersal and remote service provision to reduce their vulnerability and ensure continuity of mobilization.
Expedite Internal Military Accountability: Expedite investigations into alleged corruption within the Ministry of Defense (e.g., unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers). Implement robust quality control checks for all incoming military supplies, especially from domestic contractors, to ensure frontline units receive effective equipment. The recent court order against Arslanov in Russia and new lawsuits against Voentelecom highlight the importance of such actions for public trust.
Capitalize on RUF Internal Instability and Counter-Intelligence Vulnerabilities: Prepare and launch information operations campaigns highlighting alleged high-level corruption (e.g., Arslanov's case, Voentelecom lawsuits), suspicious deaths, military misconduct (e.g., Kalmykia rape, alleged sexual assault at children's camp, Kemerovo Oblast sexual assault, murder of family members), and distressing social issues within Russia (e.g., EGE exam violations). Specifically highlight the reported instance of the ex-corporal selling secret information to UAF, emphasizing Russian vulnerabilities. Also emphasize economic challenges that may prompt measures like increased minimum wage proposals. Counter RUF's attempts to project internal strength (e.g., "Everything for Victory!" forum, community policing images) by exposing the realities of their domestic issues. Directly counter the narrative of the 'International Public Tribunal' and the emotional video of Kriukova Nina Fedorovna by highlighting the widespread and documented RUF atrocities against Ukrainian civilians, including the confirmed 20 injured in Zaporizhzhia and 51-year-old injured in Mykolaiv.
Develop Counter-Tactics for Lone Infantry Assaults, Demining Operations, and Border Mining: Analyze recent reports of RUF employing lone, lightly equipped infantry and their new demining operations in captured areas. Develop and disseminate immediate counter-tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) for frontline units to effectively neutralize these threats and prevent them from compromising defensive positions or intelligence gathering. Simultaneously, review and enhance UAF's own remote mining TTPs, particularly along border areas, based on RUF's reported awareness and countermeasures.
Leverage US Aid Statements for Strategic Communications: Utilize recent public statements from US figures (e.g., Trump) and the Pentagon's confirmation confirming continued weapon supply to Ukraine in strategic communications. This will help counter RUF propaganda narratives about dwindling Western support (including the "cannons over grain" narrative) and reinforce domestic and international confidence.
Counter POW Exploitation and Recent RUF Disinformation: Develop and implement immediate counter-narratives and support measures to mitigate the psychological impact of RUF's exploitation of Ukrainian POWs, especially in light of the recently released video and the "bombed" Ukrainian propaganda image. This should include direct communication with families and public statements refuting RUF claims of poor UAF treatment. Simultaneously, immediately debunk and counter new RUF claims of "South Korean mercenaries" and "colossal losses" for Aidar Battalion in Sumy, as well as the claim of a sniper engaging a "Baba Yaga" drone, providing factual information and context. Actively counter RUF narratives on UAF strikes on Russian territory, providing context and countering exaggerated civilian casualty figures.
Enhance Communication System Protection and Redundancy: Immediately assess vulnerabilities of critical communication systems, particularly Starlink terminals, following confirmed RUF targeting. Implement enhanced physical security measures, camouflage, and operational procedures to mitigate detection and destruction. Explore and deploy alternative or redundant communication methods to ensure continuity of command and control even under direct attack.
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