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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-07 22:56:13Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-07 22:28:18Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 072254Z JUL 25


1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alerts for ballistic threats lifted. UAV debris caused damage to a non-residential building in Desnianskyi district and a vehicle/water pipe in Solomianskyi district. A damaged heating main impacts approximately 500 buildings. RUF also reported an aerial strike in Kyiv. KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports on "another lie by Klitschko's team," indicating internal political friction potentially impacting local governance or information dissemination. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Agricultural enterprise in Znamyanka Community damaged by RUF attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs impacted Kharkiv city (Shevchenkivskyi and Slobidskyi districts), causing fire and significant casualties (82 injured, including 8 children). Glide bombs (KABs) continue to be used against Kharkiv city and 13 settlements. RUF forces attacked emergency responders. RUF claims liberation of Sobolivka and attempting to cut UAF logistics near Kupyansk for encirclement. RUF aviation airstrikes across Vovchansk and Chuhuiv. A civilian vehicle was attacked by an FPV drone, killing a child. UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Mine detonations remain a civilian threat. RUF sources claim successful "Anvar" SpN unit operations and battle for Kupyansk. Video confirmed Shahed drone impact in a residential area. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. Oleg Synegubov shows aftermath of morning attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, confirming extensive damage to residential buildings and continued casualties. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Explosions heard in Kharkiv, confirmed by Oleg Synegubov and Mayor Terekhov (3 impacts in Kholodnohirskyi district, likely residential areas). Oleg Synegubov reports 6 direct hits on Kharkiv. Terekhov reports a woman seriously injured. Oleg Synegubov later updated injured to 11, then 16, then 33, then 71, and now 82. RUF source Colonelcassad explicitly claims TCCs were hit and encouraged civilians to report TCC locations for further strikes. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment in a forested region. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of engagements against RUF forces near Hlyboka, Kharkiv Oblast, targeting an ammunition depot, fuel depot, shelters, and a cannon. STERNENKO reports RUF continues assault actions in Vovchansk direction. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv Oblast. New air raid alert for strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of RUF aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. Two districts terrorized, residential buildings damaged. RUF source claims FAB-500 strike on crossing point near Ivanivka, with 29th Army advancing. Photo messages confirm RUF use of artillery and drones against Nikopol and Marhanets communities, damaging residential structures. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Nikopol district. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RUF Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) destroyed manpower of 31st UAF Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS reports foreign mercenaries destroyed by FAB strike in Yanvarskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (unverified by UAF). Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne, citing MoD RF. MoD Russia and Poddubny also report liberation of Dachnoye. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a Ukrainian flag installed over Dachne, indicating contested claims. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts, with photos of damaged residential buildings. New information indicates a 36-year-old male was injured in Marhanets community due to an FPV drone attack, and his home was damaged. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast: No significant changes to battlefield geometry. Pokrovsk direction remains most active, UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 attacks (June 29-July 5), eliminating 147 RUF personnel. RUF claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye and Tolstoy, with MoD Russia video visually confirming Poddubnoye capture. RUF VDV active in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF continues to press in Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions. UAF drone operations active near Toretsk. RUF propaganda suggests Chasiv Yar fall leads to UAF defense collapse further west. 5 killed, 1 wounded in Donetsk Oblast shelling. RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area (possibly Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk). MoD Russia video shows drone/artillery strikes in South Donetsk and Chasiv Yar. UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped groups attempting to break through to Torske. RUF reportedly used a "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike drone for first time against civilian object in Druzhkivka. Air Force of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast. RUF 20th and 25th Armies operations reported. DeepState reports National Guardsmen destroyed a RUF 152mm artillery piece near Storozheve. TASS reports DNR head Pushilin claims RUF continues to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) and Poddubnoye (Donetsk), citing DeepState. "Dva mayora" reports fundraising for "stormtroopers" in Kostiantynivka direction. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones (Shaheds) worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Chasiv Yar. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Chervonyy Stav, Serebryanka, Karpivka, towards Novyi Myr and Torske. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Siversk direction near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka and Ivano-Daryivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar and Yablunivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Razine, Promin, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Myrolubivka, Poltavka, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka and towards Filiya, Novomykolayivka, Pokrovsk, Molodetske, Dachne, Muravka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Myrne, Komar, Novosilka and towards Novopavlivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Huliaipole direction near Malynivka. Sternenko posts FPV drone video claiming to be from Pokrovsk direction showing military vehicles. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Kramatorsk. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that Lobkove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, was NOT occupied by the enemy, citing South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn, contradicting DeepState and RUF claims. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) posts photo messages of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye and a drone video showing a RUF military vehicle convoy moving on a dirt road, with destroyed buildings and smoke/explosions. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of Krasnolimansk direction. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo posts video showing a destroyed or disabled tank. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building, civilian belongings, and a child's toy in Komsomolskoye. Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing engagements in Donbas. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Воин DV posts video of a large explosion in Temirovka. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish in the Novopavlivka direction. Дневник Десантника reports aftermath of a fire with a destroyed residential building in Borovoe district. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting" in Zaoskolye. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions as priority front lines. A video from Presidential Brigade of Ukraine described a lone enemy assault against their positions, culminating in an FPV drone strike killing the RUF soldier. Colonelcassad posted a video showing multiple deceased individuals in military uniforms at a recently occupied defensive position, likely Ukrainian casualties, further indicating the intensity of the fighting. STERNENKO posts video of a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel in a dug-in position near Pokrovsk. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that Russian forces have created a "bag" around Ukrainian forces near Kostiantynivka. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire, captioned "Уничтожение миномета и ПВД ВСУ в районе Полтавки," indicating destruction of a mortar and UAF temporary deployment point. RUF assault detachments continue clearing liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kherson Oblast: RUF claims UAF strike on polyclinic in Nova Kakhovka (unverified). RUF "Dnepr" unit reportedly destroyed UAF M777 howitzer. RUF FPV drone strike on OKKO gas station in Kherson. RUF attacked rescuers. UAF reports repelling one RUF assault. RUF aviation airstrikes at Olhivka. UAF Marines continue air defense operations. MoD Russia video claims drone/artillery strikes. Armored ambulance vehicles arrived in Kherson Oblast (RUF logistical support). Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a significant smoke plume after an explosion in a field. General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. Dva Mayora posts a video (aerial drone footage) of an artillery strike in a wooded area in Kherson direction. Butusov Plus posts a video showing an explosion in a field. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing individuals working in a field, highlighting civilian life under duress. Два майора posts drone footage of military operations showing drone strikes on buildings in Gavrilovka. Mash na Donbashe reports a family of spies was caught in Kherson Oblast for leaking data. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Kherson region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea impacted Mykolaiv city. Significant damage to residential buildings, catering facility, bank. Multiple Shaheds reported shot down. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides overall count of "mopeds." Silvytys Odrony Pivden Ukraine reports a fire at an ammunition storage site at 071000Z JUL 25. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Odesa Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea. Explosion reported. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shahed UAVs. UAF Naval Forces celebrated in Odesa. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 12 Shahed UAVs from Black Sea towards Pivdenny/Chornomorsk, later diverting to Odesa, with 6 remaining. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa with strike drones. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person, with photos and videos confirming extensive fire and damaged vehicles. Sternenko, RBC-Ukraine, and Shef Hayabusa confirm fatality. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms one killed and civilian infrastructure damage. Oleg Synegubov reports one person killed. Rybar posts a video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Басурин о главном posts a video showing a significant smoke plume rising over an urban area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Poltava Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs targeted Poltava Oblast, confirmed strike on TCC building in Kremenchuk (3rd TCC strike this week), 2 injured, nearby residential damage. Video confirms significant damage. Colonelcassad provides "objective control" video of the TCC building in Kremenchuk engulfed in flames and smoke from a previous attack on July 6th. RUF UAV detected from Sumy region moving towards northern Poltava. Dva Mayora posted videos captioned "Beautiful hits on the TCC building in Poltava," confirming the strike. New air raid alert due to drone threat. UAVs heading from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation continues KAB launches. RUF UAVs moving into Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. RUF MoD video claims destruction of UAF shelters. RUF sources claim UAF redeployed new units to Sumy, and over 20 trucks with RUF personnel reportedly redeploying to Sumy from southern regions. RUF reports 23 UAF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators soliciting support. Animated scheme by Colonelcassad confirms RUF strikes on 05-06 JUL. Two Mayors report explosions in Kondratovka district. A video from Dva Mayora confirms an explosion in a treeline near Kondratovka, Sumy Oblast, from an aerial drone perspective. TASS reports UAF 1st Separate Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. RBC-Ukraine reports killed in Bitytsia shelling risen to 2. Colonelcassad provides video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups from all front directions to Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 private houses burned, 2 deaths, 2 injuries. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports attack on Bitytskyi старостат. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki despite RUF introducing VDV and Naval Infantry. Two Mayors photo message shows map for Sumy direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs launched at Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, followed by a missile alert. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms a missile on Sumy. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Kamyanka, Zelene, Krasne Pershe, Ambarne, Vovchansk and towards Khatnye. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction where Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two residents of Khotinska community in Sumy Oblast were killed due to a strike UAV impact. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms RF AF liberation of Bessalovka. MoD Russia reports that the Sever Group of Forces liberated Bessalovka. Poddubny also reports liberation of Bessalovka. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that RUF is deliberately striking energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast. Dva Mayora posts a video with thermal/infrared imaging showing explosions along a treeline. TASS reports approximately 5 km of the Russian state border at the junction with Sumy Oblast came under Russian army control after the liberation of Bessalovka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Sumy region and actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. New air raid alert for strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAVs from Sumy Oblast are now heading towards Poltava Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs detected moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast from southern Kyiv Oblast. Sternenko reports strike UAV threat. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations at its main address due to "tense situation in the country" for civilian safety. Alex Parker Returns confirms the suspension. Басурин о главном posts a photo message of the Vinnytsia Regional TCC and SP Facebook post, confirming the suspension. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attack with 5 Shahed UAVs damaged private/farming enterprises, warehouses, three multi-story buildings, 1 civilian injured. FPV drone attack on Polohivskyi district. UAF drones continue to destroy RUF artillery and logistics. RUF source claims combat, assault on Kamyanske and Mala Tokmachka. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area (possibly Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk). Air raid alerts issued and lifted. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB/KAR launches. Two men wounded in Polohivskyi and Vasylivskyi districts. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove. New air raid alert issued. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) en route to/through Zaporizhzhia, later reporting 2 more. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports enemy attacking Zaporizhzhia with UAVs, initial reports indicate destruction and wounded. RBC-Ukraine confirms renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports at least 10 people injured. Colonelcassad video confirms "Geranium" drone impact in Zaporizhzhia civilian market. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit by drones. RBC-Ukraine also confirms university building hit. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 6 Shahed impacts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo messages show the aftermath. They also confirm 6 injured are receiving medical help. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights shows drone hit on university building. ASTRA shows video of university damage. RBC-Ukraine shows photos of damage aftermath. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the situation, confirming attacks by at least three drones hitting residential areas and the city center around 10 AM, causing damage to dozens of buildings, university facilities, and resulting in 8 hospitalizations with more casualties expected. General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Plavni. RUF source Poddubny claims "Geranium" (Shaheds) strikes on TCC buildings. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured, then 17 injured. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the number of injured has risen to 11. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine have posted photo messages showing the aftermath. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, killing a 19-year-old and injuring six. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that two servicemen from the protection company of the Zaporizhzhia TCC were injured. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of a large plume of black smoke rising from "ЗАПОРІЗЬКА ПОЛІТЕХНІКА" (Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new "ATTENTION" alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapon employment from the eastern direction. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming a strike on a TCC in Zaporizhzhia. Рыбарь posts photo messages showing the interior of a damaged TCC building. Два майора posts a video on the Zaporizhzhia Front showing aerial reconnaissance/strike. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video detailing the medical response. Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first first time in three years. The accompanying video indicates intensified offensive actions with small groups of 3-4 soldiers and drone usage, primarily aimed at logistical routes and high ground. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Zaporizhzhia region. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posted photo messages celebrating a European wrestling champion, indicating efforts to maintain civilian morale despite ongoing attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new "ATTENTION" alert. Воин DV posts a video showing the daily work of UAV operators of the 35th Army in destroying enemy temporary deployment points (PVD) and strongholds in the Huliaipole direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Territory:
    • Belgorod Oblast: Local authorities report UAF drone attacks on bus and vehicles, causing casualties (2 killed, 6 injured). RUF claims advanced 2km on new front section at Belgorod/Kharkiv Oblasts junction. UAF drone strike on civilian vehicle on Shebekino-Belgorod highway confirmed. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports civilian woman injured. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack underway. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports 30 UAF aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed by RUF AD. Additional 10 UAVs detected and destroyed. BRICS leaders condemn attacks on bridges/railway infrastructure (May 31, Jun 01, 05). Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed last night. Dnevnik Desantnika reports UAF drone strike on civilian woman. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Kaluga Oblast: 5 UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed by RUF AD. Airport restrictions lifted. FSB identified five accomplices of Kyiv's special services involved in arsons. TASS reports FSB detained Russians in 3 regions for helping Kyiv via phone scammers. Operation Z video shows FSB detaining alleged SBU accomplices. ASTRA posts video messages showing individuals apprehended by FSB officers in Ivanovo City. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Kamchatka Krai: Governor reports restrictions on mobile internet and geolocation. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports mobile internet has been disabled due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Kemerovo Oblast: ASTRA reports a repeat offender serviceman was accused of sexually assaulting his stepdaughter. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk): UAF Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) attacks confirmed on Novorossiysk throughout the night. RUF claims successful repel of some targets. Destroyed USV found. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. RUF claims no damage. RBK-Ukraina reports GUR long-range drones attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. STERNENKO reports GUR drones attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Kursk Oblast: UAF reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults. Putin posthumously named 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Mikhail Gudkov. BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor Roman Starovoyt removed from Transport Minister post, under investigation for large-scale theft during fortification construction. Dnevnik Desantnika shows map. WarGonzo posts video claiming NATO participation in mining Kursk region. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the former Minister of Transport of Russia, Roman Starovoyt, committed suicide after being dismissed by Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна also report the death of ex-Minister Starovoyt. Два майора, WarGonzo and Kotsnews also report Starovoyt's suicide. Alex Parker Returns and Два майора report that former Kursk Governor Aleksey Smirnov, recently detained for embezzlement, gave testimony against Starovoyt. TASS reports the former Minister of Transport of Russia, Roman Starovoyt, has been found dead in his car, main version suicide, Investigative Committee establishing circumstances. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message of an explosion in a residential building, preliminary identified as a gas explosion. TASS confirms a gas explosion in an apartment building in Kursk. Дневник Десантника, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns posts videos showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports an explosion in the center of Kursk. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. TASS reports comments by Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Alexander Moiseev, attributing Mikhail Gudkov's authority to battlefield victories. This reinforces the propaganda narrative of military heroism within Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Leningrad Oblast (Kirishi/Ust-Luga): Explosion and ammonia leak on Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port, reports of sinking. Kirishi district reports two UAVs shot down. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. Север.Реалии reports internet will be worsened and EW systems installed for drone defense. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Lipetsk Oblast (Yelets): "UAV attack threat" lifted. Su-57s observed. Air danger alert issued and lifted. Governor reports massive attack last night, no casualties. Игорь Артамонов posts a video depicting the interior of a modern healthcare facility for SVO veterans. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Moscow Oblast: 6 UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by RUF AD. High temperatures. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg halted, increased rail transport (disruption confirmed by ASTRA, STERNENKO, TASS, RBC-Ukraine, Shef Hayabusa, Two Mayors). Putin attended forum. RUF source claims enemy attempts to attack Moscow again. Sheremetyevo Airport reports 171 flights cancelled, 56 delayed. Civilian video confirms large crowd. ASTRA reports over 170 flights cancelled at Sheremetyevo and 90 at Pulkovo. "Transport collapse" cost airlines 20 billion rubles. Videos confirm morning drone activity in Krasnozavodsk, Moscow region (smoke plume in residential area, chemical plant target). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Shef Hayabusa posts videos of Krasnozavodsk chemical plant being targeted. Sever.Realii posts video of smoke plume from Krasnozavodsk chemical plant attack. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed. Kotsnews reports on the situation at Sheremetyevo airport. TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions were lifted. News of Moscow posts photo messages showing network outages for MTS. News of Moscow posts a photo message featuring "Othello" promoting weekend plans. TASS reports a Moscow-Antalya flight is returning to the departure airport due to a possible malfunction. TASS posts a photo message reporting an "orange level" weather danger due to heat (+30 to +35 degrees). Новости Москвы reports another death in the Ministry of Transport, of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA confirm this. Новости Москвы posts a video of what appears to be a police investigation in a parking lot, potentially related to the death of Korneichuk. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts multiple videos showing the scene of the discovery of the former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt's body. Новости Москвы posted about a "Taste of Summer" festival, indicating an attempt to project normalcy amidst domestic events. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: Airport restrictions temporarily introduced/lifted. TASS confirms additional rail cars due to airport restrictions. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier Major Pavlov Oleksandr Mykolaiovych near Kulebaki. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports one UAV shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. TASS reports former head of Novgorod Oblast, Andrei Nikitin, may become next Russian Transport Minister. Putin has appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting head of the Ministry of Transport. TASS video shows Putin meeting with Nikitin. TASS reports Nikitin stated intention to create a unified system for unmanned transport. TASS reports Nikitin aiming for Russian transport system to be one of the most effective in the world. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms Nikitin's appointment. ASTRA reports that Prime Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin nominated Andrei Nikitin. TASS reports the State Duma will consider Nikitin's candidacy on Tuesday. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Perm Krai: New restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Perm airport, according to Rosaviatsiya. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Pskov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced at Pskov airport due to UAV threat, then lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Samara Oblast: Governor transferred significant aid (drones, EW, vehicles) to troops. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • St. Petersburg (Pulkovo Airport): Mass flight delays/cancellations due to UAV threats. ASTRA reports over 90 flights cancelled. TASS reports airport open for reception. Restrictions lifted. Pulkovo warns of possible baggage non-delivery due to high load. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport situation, showing cancelled flights and people resting on floor, citing drone threat. TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon. TASS reports smoking rooms will be free at Pulkovo airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Saratov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced and lifted at Saratov airport. TASS reports a gas explosion in a residential building, causing roof destruction and broken windows. TASS reports the fire has been extinguished. TASS posts video of aftermath. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Tver Oblast: TASS reports three UAVs shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Voronezh Oblast: BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. TASS reports several UAVs detected and destroyed. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Dnevnik Desantnika reports train movement restored after UAV debris fell. Два майора posts a photo message captioned "Воронеж," featuring a black-and-white image of a man. Рыбарь posts two photo messages with the same image. ASTRA reports a serviceman died in an attack on the Borisoglebsk military airfield on July 5. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Republic of Crimea: Russian MoD reports five Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over the Republic of Crimea. Dva Mayora posts about the destruction of five Ukrainian UAVs over the Republic of Crimea, citing the Russian MoD. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) also reports that five Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Crimea. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • General (RU): RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (likely exaggerated, UAF claims 117/157 neutralized). UAF deep strikes continue to affect Russian air travel. RUF MoD claims 39 UAVs shot down (08:30-14:00 MSK), and additional 48 UAVs. "Protracted Ukrainian UAV attack continues." Satellite imagery indicates possible damage to Borisoglebsk airfield. RUF MoD shows 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing/modernizing drones. New FPV drone video claims "netted" captured UAF drone. TASS confirms flight restrictions. Unconfirmed report of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Ivanovo, Tambov, Yaroslavl. MoD Russia shows military training. Two Mayors video shows RUF AD intercepting drone. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts photos of drones and fundraising messages. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV being tested in Tomsk. TASS reports airline damages of 20 billion rubles. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics." New TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad provides photo of downed reconnaissance/attack drone. TASS reports 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. Rybar provides video showcasing intelligence gathering/analysis. Colonelcassad discusses "important information about the channel's work and bots." ASTRA reports proposal in State Duma for new fee on foreign trips. RBC-Ukraine reports airline collapse will cost 20 billion rubles. Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates this claim. Rosaviatsiya claims all airports working normally (contradicting other sources). Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. TASS reports new bill in State Duma to exempt large families from toll road fees. TASS reports Interior Ministry claims fraudsters use new tricks to install viruses on phones. Two Mayors reports on border area drone attacks. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits. TASS reports Committee of State Duma approved increase of fines up to 1 million rubles for imposing additional goods/services on consumers. TASS reports Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. TASS reports Ministry of Education working on new teacher payment system. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi. TASS reports 1245 UAF personnel losses in the SVO zone per MoD RF. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms RF strikes on TCCs and drone storage. TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including a claim of Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory and civilian targets. MoD Russia posts an image of medals and ribbons. Kotsnews posts a video captioned "Geraniums hit two more TCCs." Fighterbomber posts photos indicating a "124th issue of 333," likely a military graduation, and a photo of a helicopter. TASS reports Iranian President Pezeshkian claimed Israel attempted to assassinate him. TASS reports former first deputy head of Rosgvardiya, Strigunov, was detained for abuse of power, and later accused of bribery. Putin signed a law imposing a fine for failing to inform the military enlistment office about changing residence. Putin signed a law granting the State Automobile Inspectorate the right to prematurely revoke driver's licenses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the arrest of Strigunov. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve in the Russian army by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника reports on military education modernization efforts. MoD Russia posts video of Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov holding a meeting of the expert council on modernizing the military education system. ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years for bribery and fraud. WarGonzo posts a video of a soldier being interviewed. TASS reports one person died and three were injured in an explosion in a lounge bar in Ryazan. Colonelcassad provides the Ministry of Defense's daily summary on the Special Military Operation. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians massively rejoice and thank Russia" for TCC strikes. ASTRA reports Putin legalized signing military contracts with the Russian MoD for stateless persons. Basurin o главном posts a video about a Tomsk realtor being punished. Butusov Plus posts a video of a soldier claiming high weekly casualties within RUF. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree granting veteran status to SVO participants in DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video of fresh graves in a cemetery in Tula. TASS reports UK sanctions against Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry. TASS reports UK sanctions against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko. TASS reports a warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg (2.5K sqm, then 3.5K sqm). Operatyvnyi ZSU also reports the Yekaterinburg fire. ASTRA reports a large warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg, spanning 3500 square meters, with partial roof collapse. TASS reports Aeroflot has stabilized its flight schedule across its route network, indicating some normalization of air travel after recent disruptions. Рыбарь posts an article "Army purification" possibly indicating internal Russian military reforms or purges. TASS reports the court in Baku left the head of "Sputnik Azerbaijan" Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov under arrest. TASS reports that LDPR deputies have prepared a bill proposing to issue land plots free of charge to spouses after 10 years of marriage if they have a child. This indicates a domestic social policy initiative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Dagestan (Buynaksk): Teenager arrested for alleged terrorist act attempt, district head arrested for fraud. Kadyrov_95 video shows Chechen officials inspecting road and meeting. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing a gathering and deployment of military personnel, likely Chechen forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • POW Claim: RUF sources claim capture of Stanislav Anatolievich Kostenko from UAF 80th ODShBr. Butusov Plus claims video shows RUF serviceman alleging torture/abuse by "Somali" unit. TASS video shows Prilepin claiming survival. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts photo/video of deceased individual (likely RUF). Butusov Plus posts video with caption "Chained together..." showing individuals in military-style clothing. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Coordination Staff for POWs in Kharkiv held an event. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of protest by relatives of Colombian individuals who went to fight in Ukraine and are reported missing, highlighting concerns about their status. MoD Russia posted a video featuring a captive Ukrainian serviceman claiming that animals are treated better than soldiers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a clear propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника posts video of an interview with a presumed POW, addressing questions of regime change in Ukraine. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a similar video of a POW interview. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Khabarovsk Krai: Police department recruiting new personnel. Two local women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. Khabarovsk Police posts photo message of police couple. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Internal Russian Issues: Fraudsters bypassing two-factor authentication. Russian government supported bill to increase fines for animal welfare. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. TASS reports 950 cars queue on Crimean Bridge. TASS reports vote of no confidence against EC head Ursula von der Leyen. RF Cabinet of Ministers approved animal treatment plan. Basurin o glavnom posted financial/business snippets. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up at race. TASS reports new bill in State Duma to include period of care for each child up to 1.5 years in insurance record. News of Moscow reports incident at metro station in Moscow. Mash na Donbashe posts video of civilian activity on a beach in Melekino. News of Moscow reports bill to make free travel on toll roads for large families. TASS reports on Spain's running of the bulls. Butusov Plus reports on Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev's death and financial struggles. ASTRA reports a participant of the war in Ukraine killed his wife and daughter in Vladikavkaz. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Here's how 10 years passed" and a photo of a bathroom. Basurin o главном posts "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'." Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts message about hating crypto traders. News of Moscow posts photo "Vitamin C rejuvenates skin." TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years. Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure." Basurin o главном posts a new episode of his "Basurin Answers!" program. Colonelcassad posts a photo message about a bill introduced by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation to perpetuate the memory of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. WarGonzo posts video related to Zakhar Prilepin. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman killed his wife and daughter. ASTRA reports on concert cancellations due to "Z-activists" in Barnaul. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with the caption "Cмеялся." Colonelcassad posts a video featuring two individuals discussing the conflict. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Два майора, WarGonzo, and Kotsnews confirm Starovoyt's death by suicide. Два майора reports that the Investigative Committee of Russia confirmed Starovoyt's suicide. Оперативний ЗСУ reports about another death in the Russian Ministry of Transport of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA also confirm this. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Colonelcassad posts a video also showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. ASTRA posts a video of the police scene related to Starovoyt's death. Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Kotsnews posts a video from a "People's Front" event. AV БогомаZ posts a series of photos and text indicating continued domestic infrastructure development. Бутусов Плюс posts a video showing a soldier being greeted by civilians. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photo messages showing new recruits learning to shoot a grenade launcher. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message showing a boy and his laptop. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a distressing incident where the son of a military serviceman was allegedly sexually assaulted at a children's camp. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman after injecting her with an unknown substance in Kalmykia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Texas: ASTRA reports 82 killed (28 children) due to flooding. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Armenia: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Russian troops are heading to Armenia, citing GUR intelligence, which indicates an order to send personnel to the Russian base in Gyumri. DeepState also posts photo messages (scanned telegrams) confirming the order to send troops to Armenia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
    • Lutsk (Volyn Oblast): Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident where a volunteer died after being beaten and falling from a truck. CONFIDENCE: LOW (RUF propaganda source).
    • Kyrgyzstan: Рыбарь posts a video of a meeting between the Kyrgyz and Russian presidents, highlighting strengthening ties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Iran: Alex Parker Returns reports Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claiming Iran does not need assistance from China and Russia in case of war. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran if Tehran tries to restore its nuclear program. Colonelcassad released a video of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian discussing Iran's nuclear program with Tucker Carlson. This indicates Iran's continued messaging on its nuclear intentions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Serbia: New tariffs of 35% on imports from Serbia announced by Donald Trump (via Truth Social), effective August 1st. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Black Sea: New groups of RUF Shahed UAVs detected from Black Sea, en route to Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts and Kinburn Spit/Dmytrivka/Parutyne. RUF Naval activity includes 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (8 Kalibr), 1 patrol ship. No missile carriers in Sea of Azov. RUF tactical aviation activity in Azov Sea. Ukrainian source explains why Russia deploys submarines but does not fire. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RUF strikes originating from Black Sea/Crimea. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea (now lifted). Air Force of Ukraine reports movement of strike UAVs from Black Sea/Kherson region towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports air alerts due to drones. Two Mayors video shows rocket launch in Crimea. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports Shahed UAV moving towards Odesa. Air Force of Ukraine reports UAV heading to Odesa from eastern direction. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person in Odesa. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms significant destruction. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (now lifted). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Rotation of IAEA observers confirmed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled as of 070600Z JUL 25. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Олександр Вілкул states in a briefing that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is under control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Transcarpathia (Zakarpattia Oblast): RBK-Ukraina reports a drunk BMW driver rammed a checkpoint, killing a border guard. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photo messages of a meeting with Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports explosions in Berezyna occurred due to organized illegal manufacture of explosives by locals, with 5 suspects identified. РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting an underground laboratory and 4 tons of explosives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast (New): Colonelcassad reports Russian army advancement in the south of DNR, accompanied by multiple photo messages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast (New): Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • General (RU) (New): Rybar posts an image and text congratulating the Air Defense Missile Forces of Russia on July 8. The image depicts a piano on fire, with text referring to "July 8" and "Air Defense Missile Forces Day of the Armed Forces of Russia." This is a propaganda image. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Volyn Oblast (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with the caption "How many volunteers went?", likely referring to Ukrainian mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • EU (New): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that the European Union is preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022, citing the French Foreign Minister. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: New RUF UAV activity from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. RUF intentions for this vector are currently unclear, but suggest potential reconnaissance or strike missions against the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Ukraine: Forecast indicates heat up to +37°C and thunderstorms for the coming week. RBC-Ukraina reports strong bad weather in Western Ukraine.
  • Impact: High temperatures will exacerbate heat stress on personnel and equipment. Thunderstorms may disrupt drone operations, limit air support, and affect ground maneuverability due to muddy conditions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Territory: Moscow is experiencing an "orange level" weather danger due to heat, with temperatures expected to reach +30 to +35 degrees Celsius. Новости Москвы reports thunderstorm and hail going to Moscow. Николаевский Ванёк posts a video showing heavy clouds, possibly indicating ongoing or approaching storms.
  • Impact: High temperatures may cause heat stress on personnel, particularly those involved in military operations or outdoor duties. May affect morale and operational tempo. Thunderstorms and hail may disrupt air travel and ground movement, impacting logistics and operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • UAF: Maintaining defensive posture across most sectors. Active counter-drone operations in Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Odesa with successful neutralizations (75 UAVs shot down as of 070635Z, 75/101 total hostile UAVs as of 070636Z). Redeploying units to Sumy direction. Prioritizing air defense against Shahed and ballistic missile threats. Actively using FPV drones against RUF logistics and personnel. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade confirms drone operations. FPV drone footage confirms successful strikes. "Spartan NGU" and "Butusov Plus" videos show successful drone strikes. Appeals for support indicate sustained public support. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopping RUF groups near Torske. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows successful drone strikes on RUF personnel on motorcycles. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations for vehicles. DeepState shows National Guardsmen destroying a RUF 152mm artillery. DeepState reports map updated. Butusov Plus reports past UAF night drone successes. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. GSU and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF combat losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. RBC-Ukraine reports injured in Kharkiv transported to hospitals. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports firefighters extinguished fires in Sumy and Odesa. General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos depict solemn moments of silence. "Brigade Khizhak" released video showing effective June strikes in Toretsk. "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is fundraising for lost equipment/property. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from south, now lifted. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv. UAF Desantno-shturmovi Viyska (DSV) posts video of drone strike on RUF positions. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights claims drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine videos show aftermath of drone attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows aftermath of 6 Shahed impacts in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. Oleg Synegubov states 7 injured in Kharkiv as of latest report. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. General Staff reports RF used around 1270 drones, 39 missiles, and nearly 1000 KABs last week. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Sternenko posts FPV drone video of "Hornets of Dovbush" (UAF unit) continuing to restrain the enemy in Pokrovsk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn confirming Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) was NOT occupied. UAF General Staff provides multiple photo messages of new recruits learning to shoot a grenade launcher within the "Contract 18-24" program. Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle. RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck. UAF Rustem Umierov reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone, 'Merlin-VR'. Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts a video showing two UAF drone operators taking a Russian assault aircraft "in pincers." Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." STERNENKO posts video showing a UAF drone operator destroying RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports a deficit of "Rusoreza." Shef Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing an aerial view of aircraft formation. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video showing military personnel preparing and distributing sushi. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a company that did not pay over 325 million UAH in taxes has compensated the state. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video detailing the medical response. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message that the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. Басурин о главном reports on a Ukrainian statement about reinforcing air defense with volunteer formations using light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds, potentially indicating a new, unconventional approach to air defense. President Zelenskyy confirmed holding a Staff meeting today (07 JUL 25), with reports from the front including Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia), Sumy, and border actions in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, indicating high-level strategic oversight and continued focus on these areas. He also highlighted the importance of drone technology for defense and operations on Russian territory. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel in a dug-in position near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showcasing successful engagement and destruction of an enemy BM-21 Grad MLRS by a Ukrainian FPV drone in Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, focusing on drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photo messages showing two individuals with a drone at dusk, likely UAF personnel demonstrating drone readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF: Main effort in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Chasiv Yar) with high-intensity assaults. Fixing operations in Kharkiv and Sumy to pin UAF reserves. Continued widespread use of glide bombs and FPV drones. Increased drone and missile activity against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. New confirmation of ballistic missile employment capability from northeast. Effective EW implied by UAF UAV losses. RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities and claims of capturing UAF drones. Colonelcassad claims RUF drone operators shot down 50 Ukrainian reconnaissance drones over Chasiv Yar (some by ramming). MoD Russia video showcases UAV strikes. RUF adapted decoy drones ("Gerbera") into strike platforms. Colonelcassad videos confirm RUF 20th and 25th Armies effective use of artillery and drones. Operation Z videos demonstrate RUF capabilities near Pokrovsk. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. Alex Parker Returns claims unsuccessful "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch (some limitation). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts fundraising for drones. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Butusov Plus reports past RF vulnerability to UAF drone capabilities. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging video demonstrates continued drone use for targeting. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying enemy armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. RUF claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (indicating robust AD). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection indicate focus on soldier survivability. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 enemy UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video shows drone-guided artillery. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Shef Hayabusa video highlights RUF AD failures against Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (vulnerability). Two Mayors video of military convoy in Pokrovsk direction. Rybar's video indicates RUF's advanced intelligence capabilities. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. Operation Z video showcasing Russian army drones destroying enemy armor. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Vooin DV posts video of large explosion, likely a FAB strike. Two Mayors video shows specialized marine detachment (likely SpN) diving capabilities. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping (callsign Luna), claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone targeting UAF vehicle. General Staff reports RUF used ~1270 drones, 39 missiles, and ~1000 KABs last week. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming psychological warfare capabilities. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming continued precision strike capability. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. TASS video shows footage claiming to be the liberation of Dachne. Dnevnik Desantnika video reinforces RF AF capabilities in localized ground operations. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity implies an ongoing hybrid warfare capability. Dnevnik Desantnika video of aerial view of Kharkiv urban environment with explosion/smoke plume. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy, some with damage, moving on a dirt road. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction. Kotsnews video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. Dva Mayora video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy. WarGonzo posts video showing a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe video shows a damaged residential area in Vasylivka. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Басурин о главном posts three videos targeting TCCs in Ukraine. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing a gathering and deployment of military personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Военкор Котенок posts two videos of drone footage showing a pickup truck with multiple individuals identified as military personnel and military equipment, traveling through a rural area near Kupyansk. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника posts a tactical analysis of Russian paratroopers with an image of a VDV armored vehicle, suggesting their continued presence and operational focus. WarGonzo posts a video of the Minister of Defense holding a council on the modernization of military education. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka. WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years. The accompanying video indicates intensified offensive actions with small groups of 3-4 soldiers and drone usage, primarily aimed at logistical routes and high ground. Alex Parker Returns provides a video showing a Ukrainian military vehicle, likely a tank, engaged by enemy fire from an aerial perspective. New information details RUF employing single, lightly equipped infantry against UAF positions, possibly as diversionary tactics or using penal battalion/refuseniks. This shows RUF's willingness to expend low-value personnel in probing attacks. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol). Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. ASTRA posts video of a homemade, three-wheeled vehicle used for casualty evacuation, suggesting improvised battlefield modifications. Dnevnik Desantnika posts a video of a Russian paratrooper appealing for drone equipment and supplies. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing what it claims is a downing of a Russian missile by Ukrainian forces. TASS reports comments by Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Alexander Moiseev, attributing Mikhail Gudkov's authority to battlefield victories. RUF assault detachments continue clearing liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. RUF is employing single, lightly equipped infantry against UAF positions in South Donetsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Most capabilities), MEDIUM (Oreshnik missile reliability).
  • Control Measures: Widespread air raid alerts across multiple Ukrainian oblasts due to UAV, ballistic missile, and aviation weapon threats (Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv). New ballistic missile threat declared for regions with active alerts, originating from northeast, now lifted. Temporary flight restrictions in various Russian airports due to UAV threats. Russian aviation authorities acknowledge interference but claim sufficient resources (contradicted by ASTRA/TASS). Sternenko reports drone safety measures in multiple Russian oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine reports ongoing threats and UAV movements. Lipetsk Oblast air danger alert. TASS reports RUF AD success over Voronezh. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa. Air Force reports UAV heading to Odesa. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. Kyiv City Military Administration reports new air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat, then all-clear. Air Force of Ukraine confirms ballistic missile threat in alert areas, then lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new air raid alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat lifted. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations at its main address for civilian safety. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports widespread air raid alerts due to ballistic missile threat. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo message indicates transport movement restrictions. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from eastern direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "ATTENTION" alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports "all clear" for ballistic missile threats. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs in Lviv Oblast have strengthened security measures. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Shef Hayabusa confirms Vinnytsia TCC suspension. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new "ATTENTION" alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapon employment from the eastern direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message of a map showing ballistic alerts. TASS posts a photo message reporting an "orange level" weather danger due to heat in Moscow. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a text message with the caption "Help the enemy - you will go to prison!". TASS reports Putin signed a law imposing a fine for failing to inform the military enlistment office about changing residence. TASS reports Putin signed a law granting the State Automobile Inspectorate the right to prematurely revoke driver's licenses. Colonelcassad reports Peskov stated information about new DPRK troop contingents in SVO zone resembles an "information hoax." Alex Parker Returns posts a series of photos and text about an alleged incident in Lutsk involving a TCC. Олександр Вілкул in a briefing re-affirms control measures for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports on drone safety measures in temporarily occupied Crimea. TASS reported Aeroflot had stabilized its flight schedule, indicating some control over air travel disruptions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new "ATTENTION" alert. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, according to the Spokesperson of the Ground Forces, Sarantsyev. This indicates an ongoing and adaptive UAF control measure to counter persistent RUF targeting of TCCs. New flight restrictions at Perm airport. RUF UAV activity from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast, implying new control measures or threats for that region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities: RUF maintains significant artillery and air support (FAB-1500, FAB-500 confirmed). Sustained ground assaults using mechanized and VDV units. Robust drone and missile attack capabilities demonstrated against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. New confirmation of ballistic missile employment capability from northeast. Effective EW implied by UAF UAV losses. RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities and claims of capturing UAF drones. Colonelcassad claims RUF drone operators shot down 50 Ukrainian reconnaissance drones over Chasiv Yar (some by ramming). MoD Russia video showcases UAV strikes. RUF adapted decoy drones ("Gerbera") into strike platforms. Colonelcassad videos confirm RUF 20th and 25th Armies effective use of artillery and drones. Operation Z videos demonstrate RUF capabilities near Pokrovsk. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. Alex Parker Returns claims unsuccessful "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch (some limitation). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts fundraising for drones. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Butusov Plus reports past RF vulnerability to UAF drone capabilities. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging video demonstrates continued drone use for targeting. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying enemy armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. RUF claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (indicating robust AD). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection indicate focus on soldier survivability. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 enemy UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video shows drone-guided artillery. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Shef Hayabusa video highlights RUF AD failures against Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (vulnerability). Two Mayors video of military convoy in Pokrovsk direction. Rybar's video indicates RUF's advanced intelligence capabilities. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. Operation Z video showcasing Russian army drones destroying enemy armor. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Vooin DV posts video of large explosion, likely a FAB strike. Two Mayors video shows specialized marine detachment (likely SpN) diving capabilities. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping (callsign Luna), claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone targeting UAF vehicle. General Staff reports RUF used ~1270 drones, 39 missiles, and ~1000 KABs last week. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming psychological warfare capabilities. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming continued precision strike capability. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. TASS video shows footage claiming to be the liberation of Dachne. Dnevnik Desantnika video reinforces RF AF capabilities in localized ground operations. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity implies an ongoing hybrid warfare capability. Dnevnik Desantnika video of aerial view of Kharkiv urban environment with explosion/smoke plume. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy, some with damage, moving on a dirt road. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction. Kotsnews video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. Dva Mayora video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy. WarGonzo posts video showing a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe video shows a damaged residential area in Vasylivka. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Басурин о главном posts three videos targeting TCCs in Ukraine. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing a gathering and deployment of military personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Военкор Котенок posts two videos of drone footage showing a pickup truck with multiple individuals identified as military personnel and military equipment, traveling through a rural area near Kupyansk. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника posts a tactical analysis of Russian paratroopers. WarGonzo posts a video of the Minister of Defense holding a council on the modernization of military education. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka. WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years. The accompanying video indicates intensified offensive actions with small groups of 3-4 soldiers and drone usage, primarily aimed at logistical routes and high ground. Alex Parker Returns provides a video showing a Ukrainian military vehicle, likely a tank, engaged by enemy fire from an aerial perspective. New information details RUF employing single, lightly equipped infantry against UAF positions, possibly as diversionary tactics or using penal battalion/refuseniks. This shows RUF's willingness to expend low-value personnel in probing attacks. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol). Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. ASTRA posts video of a homemade, three-wheeled vehicle used for casualty evacuation, suggesting improvised battlefield modifications. Dnevnik Desantnika posts a video of a Russian paratrooper appealing for drone equipment and supplies. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing what it claims is a downing of a Russian missile by Ukrainian forces. TASS reports comments by Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Alexander Moiseev, attributing Mikhail Gudkov's authority to battlefield victories. RUF assault detachments continue clearing liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. RUF is employing single, lightly equipped infantry against UAF positions in South Donetsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Most capabilities), MEDIUM (Oreshnik missile reliability).
  • Intentions:
    • Eastern Axis (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk): Seize Chasiv Yar, consolidate control towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk. Maintain pressure on Pokrovsk. RUF 255th Regiment advances towards Kostiantynivka. RUF source claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye. Rybar analysis suggests advance towards Mirnohrad. Encircle Kupyansk. MoD Russia video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. TASS reports Pushilin claims RUF intent to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Operation Z via Rus Vesna reports ISW assessment on encircling Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk encirclement on roads. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. General Staff reports continued clashes in Eastern directions. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD RF official reports of liberating Dachne and Bessalovka confirm continued intent for localized territorial gains. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) photo message of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye from 07.07.25 indicates continued RUF focus on the Pokrovsk axis. Voenkor Kotenok's Krasnolimansk direction map confirms continued RUF focus on this sector. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemezet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting" in Zaoskolye, reinforcing RUF intent for offensive action in the eastern theater. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting confirmed Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions as priority RUF targets. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery, reinforcing the intent for continued high-intensity engagements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol), indicating RUF intent to defend positions against such incursions. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. Colonelcassad reports new advancement in the south of DNR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Fix UAF forces, prevent redeployment. Potential for renewed, larger-scale offensive towards Kharkiv (currently shaping). Increased RUF activity in Sumy may indicate new shaping or diversion. TASS reports UAF 1st Tank Brigade on Sumy direction. Air Force reports active tactical aviation in northeast. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas. Воин DV claiming advance of 29th Army in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy Oblast. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv directions. Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits on Kharkiv. Terekhov reports a seriously injured woman. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geranium" (Shaheds) strikes on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV. MoD RF reports of liberating Bessalovka confirm continued intent for localized territorial gains. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly claims TCCs were hit and encouraged civilians to report TCC locations for further "Geranium" strikes. Vooin DV video provides aerial reconnaissance of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction. НгП раZVедка reports Kharkiv received its "deserved prize." Басурин о главном posts a video showing a large explosion and smoke plume over Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника posts a photo message captioned "Тем временем в хохлостане…" indicating continued RUF focus on the Kharkiv axis. Военкор Котенок posts two videos captioned "Охота на автомобильную технику ВСУ в районе Купянска." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of engagements against RUF forces near Hlyboka, Kharkiv Oblast. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Sumy region and actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, indicating continued UAF assessment of RUF intent in these areas. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv Oblast. The new UAV movement from Sumy into Chernihiv Oblast indicates a potential broadening of RUF's Northern Axis intentions beyond Kharkiv and Sumy, possibly for reconnaissance or striking new targets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fixing), MEDIUM (Larger offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv).
    • Zaporizhzhia Offensive: Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years, supported by small groups and drones, indicating RUF intent to achieve significant territorial gains in this sector. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), confirming it as an area of focus for RUF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Deep Operations: Degrade Ukrainian morale and mobilization by striking TCCs and civilian infrastructure. Air Force reports active strike UAVs and ballistic missile threats. Poltava TCC strike (Colonelcassad). New drone attacks on Kyiv and Odesa. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. Attacks on Kharkiv with civilian casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fatality in Odesa. ASTRA confirms 2 killed, 2 injured in Sumy. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Kharkiv explosions in residential areas confirm continued intent to target the city. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports destruction and wounded from drone attack. RUF target of Vinnytsia TCC (suspension of operations) confirms continued intent to degrade mobilization. Confirmed impact on university building in Zaporizhzhia. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine also confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geranium" (Shaheds) strikes on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further "Geranium" strikes. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) states that strikes on TCCs are intended to destroy data and disrupt mobilization in Ukraine. TASS reports that civilians in Kyiv-controlled areas are transmitting data to Russia via messengers about the location of TCCs and UAF deployment sites, indicating a clear RUF intention to exploit such intelligence for precision strikes against these targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Старше Эдды (Older Edda) posts a message clearly indicating RUF intent to continue strikes against TCCs. Colonelcassad's latest video features Boris Rozhin commenting on "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, highlighting the intent to degrade Ukrainian mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Degrade UAF Drone Capabilities: RUF continues to actively target UAF UAV launch/staging sites and attempt to capture UAF drones. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day. Воин DV posts a video showing the daily work of UAV operators of the 35th Army in destroying enemy temporary deployment points (PVD) and strongholds in the Huliaipole direction, demonstrating RUF's continued intent to degrade UAF drone capabilities by targeting their operational bases. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Reinforce Presence in Armenia: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports GUR intelligence about Russian troops heading to Armenia, indicating RUF intent to reinforce its presence at the Gyumri base. DeepState also posts photo messages (scanned telegrams) confirming this. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
    • Internal Control and Law Enforcement: AV БогомаZ posts about domestic infrastructure projects. Mash na Donbashe reports on the detention of a family of spies in Kherson Oblast. Basurin o главном posts a video about a realtor being punished. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman was accused of sexually assaulting his stepdaughter in Kemerovo Oblast. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman after injecting her with an unknown substance in Kalmykia. This indicates a concerning internal disciplinary issue within RUF ranks that could impact morale and civilian relations. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran, indicating an intent by Russian sources to highlight international tensions beyond Ukraine. RUF assault detachments continue clearing liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • EU Sanctions Impact: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that the European Union is preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022, indicating a clear intention by the EU to increase economic pressure on Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Disinformation/Information Operations: Операция Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts video messages from the White House indicating a freeze on military aid to Ukraine. This is a clear RUF intention to spread disinformation to undermine international support for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Courses of Action (COAs):
    • MLCOA: Continued high-intensity assaults on Chasiv Yar to secure Kanal microdistrict and establish bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire against UAF. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat operations in Donetsk, utilizing thermal drones. KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Continued artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Rybar will likely continue to produce operational maps for the eastern front. General Staff reports continued clashes around Chasiv Yar. KABs on Donetsk Oblast indicate continued aerial bombardment in next 1-12 hours. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RUF strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, suggesting continued combat operations impacting civilian areas in the next 1-12 hours. WarGonzo posts a video showing a significant explosion in an urban environment, indicating high-impact strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction, confirming continued localized strikes in the next 1-12 hours. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating persistent offensive operations in the next 1-12 hours. Colonelcassad posts video showing combat in Donbas, indicating continued operations in the next 1-12 hours. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by an explosion, indicating MLCOA for continued precision strikes against structures. Operation Z posts a photo message claiming Russia created a "bag" around Ukrainian forces near Kostiantynivka, indicating MLCOA for continued encirclement efforts. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire, captioned "Уничтожение миномета и ПВД ВСУ в районе Полтавки," indicating MLCOA for continued targeted strikes against UAF positions and equipment in the next 1-12 hours. Colonelcassad posts a photo message showing a fundraising effort for "stormtroopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," indicating MLCOA for continued focused operations in this sector. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka, indicating MLCOA for continued use of glide bombs. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction, indicating continued offensive operations and consolidation. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins suggests continued destructive tactics by RUF in occupied areas. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting in Zaoskolye," indicating a continued MLCOA for intense combat in the eastern sector in the next 1-12 hours. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery, reinforcing MLCOA for continued high-intensity mechanized combat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him, indicating continued localized advances. Colonelcassad provides a situation update on the South-Donetsk direction, indicating continued MLCOA for offensive operations there. Rybar posts an "итоги 27 недели" (results of week 27) video, indicating a continued MLCOA for comprehensive analysis and reporting. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts videos and photo messages of "Otvazhnye" armored groups storming Novoekonomicheskoe, consistent with MLCOA for continued armored pushes in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad reports new Russian army advancement in the south of DNR. RUF assault detachments continue clearing liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction, with accompanying video showing forces moving through destroyed buildings and an explosion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Northern Axis: RUF will maintain high-intensity fixing operations around Vovchansk and Lyptsi (glide bombs, localized infantry probes). Expect continued Shahed UAV attacks on Kharkiv. RUF SpN units (Anvar) to conduct reconnaissance/strike missions in border areas. Efforts to encircle Kupyansk focusing on roads. Continue to target UAF transport. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov's photos support MLCOA of continued attacks on northern urban centers. DSNS images reinforce expectation of continued attacks on residential areas. Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv; Mayor Terekhov confirms multiple impacts in residential areas, indicating continued direct targeting of Kharkiv urban centers by drones. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits and 7-11 injured, indicating continued significant impact. General Staff reports clashes in South Slobozhansky direction, indicating ongoing pressure. Air Force reports missile threat on Sumy, indicating continued ballistic threat. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, indicating continued MLCOA for concentrated drone attacks. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video reinforces continued drone attacks with casualties. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, reinforcing MLCOA of continued urban targeting. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, requiring immediate medical response in next 1-6 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, requiring continued emergency response in next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa's photos confirm ongoing damage. Oleg Synegubov provided a video update on the operational situation in Kharkiv, indicating ongoing response. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area and Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv confirm MLCOA for continued drone strikes on urban areas. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly indicates MLCOA for continued targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv, leveraging local intelligence. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment, confirming MLCOA for RUF reconnaissance and targeting of UAF formations in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating continued strikes on critical infrastructure in the next 1-12 hours. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued offensive actions in the next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, indicating continued strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, indicating urgent medical response will continue in the next 1-6 hours. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction, confirming continued localized offensive operations. НгП раZVедка reports Kharkiv received its "deserved prize." Басурин о главном posts a video showing a smoke plume over Kharkiv, indicating continued strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Дневник Десантника posts a photo message captioned "Тем временем в хохлостане…" which, despite the denial, indicates continued focus on the Kharkiv axis. Военкор Котенок posts two videos captioned "Охота на автомобильную технику ВСУ в районе Купянска," confirming continued RUF drone surveillance and targeting against UAF vehicles in the Kupyansk area in the next 1-12 hours. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv, indicating continued high casualty attacks. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast, indicating MLCOA for continued localized ground advances. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts drone footage of engagements against RUF forces near Hlyboka, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF attempts to advance. STERNENKO reports Russians continue assault actions in Vovchansk direction. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv Oblast in the next 1-12 hours. The new UAV activity heading from Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast indicates an MLCOA for RUF to expand its reconnaissance and potential strike zones, or to create a diversion, likely within the next 1-6 hours. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy city moving towards the city, indicating an immediate threat of drone strike in the next 1-2 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Dnevnik Desantnika posted a photo message of the Kupyansk direction, reinforcing expectations of continued RUF pressure in this sector in the next 1-12 hours.
    • Sumy Direction: RUF will likely continue to build up forces and conduct shaping operations (KAB/KAR strikes, localized ground actions) to stretch UAF resources. RUF MoD will continue to claim destruction of UAF targets. Active UAF drone operations will persist. Two Mayors report explosions. RUF will attempt to exploit perceived UAF readiness issues. Claims of UAF redeployment to Sumy as justification for escalation. RUF UAV activity from Sumy into Poltava will continue. Dnevnik Desantnika's claim of UAF assault group redeployment. Expect continued RUF attacks on civilian infrastructure. WarGonzo tactical map for Sumy. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki. Air Force reports high-speed targets and missiles on Sumy, indicating continued ballistic threat. General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults in Sumy direction, suggesting continued RUF probes. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF, indicating MLCOA for continued localized advances. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, indicating MLCOA for continued attacks on civilian targets. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms localized advances in Sumy. MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka, indicating MLCOA for continued localized territorial gains. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating MLCOA for continued strikes on critical infrastructure. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued offensive actions in the next 1-12 hours. TASS reports approximately 5 km of the Russian state border at the junction with Sumy Oblast came under Russian army control after the liberation of Bessalovka, confirming MLCOA for territorial gains. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued aerial strikes in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Sumy region and actions on Russian territory in border areas of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, confirming continued UAF assessment of RUF intent in these areas. Dva Mayora posts a video showing the downing of a missile over Sumy, suggesting continued MLCOA for missile attacks in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Offensive: Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates sustained offensive operations in this sector, with likely continued localized ground attacks, increased drone usage, and efforts to target UAF logistical routes and high ground, expected to continue for the next 24-72 hours. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapon employment from the eastern direction for Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the next 1-12 hours. Воин DV posts a video showing the daily work of UAV operators of the 35th Army in destroying enemy temporary deployment points (PVD) and strongholds in the Huliaipole direction, indicating MLCOA for continued RUF drone and artillery strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

  • RUF Strategic Intentions: Confirmation of whether increased activity in Sumy represents a genuine new offensive axis or a fixing operation to draw UAF reserves. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • "Oreshnik" Ballistic Missile: Verification of the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure, its capabilities, and RUF's timeline for operational deployment. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Internal Corruption: Deeper understanding of the scope and impact of high-level corruption (e.g., Starovoyt's death, Arslanov's conviction, Strigunov's arrest, Korneichuk's death) on RUF logistical capabilities, morale, and long-term sustainment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Impact of UK Sanctions: Detailed assessment of the impact of recent UK sanctions on the Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry and against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko on RUF CBRN capabilities and overall military-industrial complex. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Manpower Sources: Detailed assessment of the implications of Putin's decree allowing stateless persons to serve in the Russian army by contract on RUF's long-term manpower sustainment and potential for exploitation. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Zaporizhzhia Offensive Scale: Determine the precise scale, units involved, and depth of the new RUF offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to accurately assess its strategic significance and potential for breakthrough. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • Unconventional Air Defense: Evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of Ukraine's reported plan to use volunteer formations with light aircraft for Shahed interception. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Russian Social Issues: Assess the impact of incidents like the alleged sexual assault at a children's camp, the rape reported in Kalmykia, and the sexual assault reported in Kemerovo Oblast on Russian military morale, conscription efforts, and public trust in authorities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Lone Infantry Attack TTPs: Further intelligence collection is required to understand the tactical purpose (reconnaissance-in-force, diversion, penal battalion, etc.) and scale of RUF's new tactic involving lone, lightly equipped infantry assaults. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • Iran Strike Preparation: Confirm the veracity and immediate implications of Axios's claim regarding Tel Aviv's preparations for strikes on Iran. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • POW Interrogation Tactics: Analyze the content and format of newly released POW interrogation videos (e.g., "Ask the Prisoner of War") to determine RUF's evolving psychological operations tactics and their effectiveness in undermining Ukrainian morale or gathering intelligence. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • Russian Internal Military Affairs: Further information regarding "Army purification" (Rybar article) is needed to understand whether this indicates a broader internal military reform, purges, or ongoing disciplinary actions within RUF. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Azerbaijani History Textbook Narrative: Investigate the specific content of the Azerbaijani history textbook images (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) to determine if they relate to regional geopolitical narratives or historical claims that could impact Russian foreign policy or regional stability. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Azerbaijan Judicial Action against Sputnik Staff: Understand the underlying reasons and potential broader implications of the arrest and continued detention of Sputnik Azerbaijan staff in Baku for RUF's foreign media operations and diplomatic relations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • Ukrainian Government Appointments: Understand the reasons behind the Ukrainian Cabinet's decision not to appoint the director of BEB, and its potential impact on governance and anti-corruption efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Ukrainian Political Friction: Understand the full scope and impact of the reported "lie by Klitschko's team" by KMVA on Kyiv's governance, civilian morale, and overall war effort. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • US Tariffs on Serbia: Assess the economic and geopolitical implications of the announced US tariffs on imports from Serbia for regional stability and US-Serbia relations. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • Perm Airport Restrictions: Determine the cause of the new flight restrictions at Perm airport. Is it a general security measure, a response to a specific threat, or an internal issue? (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • UAV Movement into Chernihiv Oblast: Determine the specific intent and follow-on actions of the RUF UAVs now transiting from Sumy into Chernihiv Oblast. Is this a new strike vector, a reconnaissance effort, or a diversion? (URGENT).
  • Sumy City UAV Threat: Confirm the type and number of UAVs currently heading towards Sumy city, and their immediate tactical intent. (URGENT).
  • US Military Aid Freeze: Confirm the veracity and the immediate and long-term implications of the reported "freeze" on US military aid to Ukraine. (URGENT).

7. COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  • ISR (IMINT/SIGINT): High-resolution satellite imagery and SIGINT collection on RUF force concentrations and movements in Sumy Oblast to determine offensive preparations. Prioritize ISR on areas around Kupyansk and the entire Zaporizhzhia front line. (URGENT)
  • ISR (HUMINT/OSINT): Collect information on RUF internal dynamics, particularly the impact of recent high-level arrests and deaths (Starovoyt, Arslanov, Strigunov, Korneichuk), and incidents of military misconduct (Kalmykia rape, Kemerovo Oblast sexual assault) on command cohesion and logistics. Monitor Russian social media for sentiment shifts and internal dissent (e.g., Igor Strelkov's channels). (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • ISR (SIGINT/ELINT): Characterize new RUF EW systems and their operational areas, particularly in southern and eastern sectors, to inform counter-EW TTPs. (URGENT)
  • ISR (IMINT/HUMINT): Verify claims of "Gerbera" decoy drone conversion to strike role and assess its proliferation within RUF. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • ISR (IMINT/SIGINT): Continued monitoring of RUF naval and air activity in the Black Sea and Crimea for ballistic missile launches and Shahed UAV deployment. (CONTINUOUS)
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor RUF media and social media for further details and imagery regarding the warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg to determine potential military/economic impact. (ROUTINE)
  • HUMINT/OSINT): Collect and cross-verify information from Russian sources regarding the protest by relatives of Colombian mercenaries to understand the extent of foreign fighter involvement and RUF information operations. (ROUTINE)
  • ISR (IMINT/HUMINT): Monitor Russian military bases in Armenia for troop movements and reinforcement to confirm RUF intentions in the Caucasus. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • OSINT/HUMINT): Collect further details on Ukraine's proposed volunteer air defense formations using light aircraft, including training, equipment, and proposed operational areas, to assess feasibility and effectiveness. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • HUMINT/OSINT): Collect and analyze RUF battlefield reports and captured materials for specific TTPs related to lone infantry assaults, their objectives, and the types of personnel involved. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor international news and intelligence sources for further confirmation and details on Tel Aviv's alleged preparations for strikes on Iran, and its potential impact on regional stability. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • OSINT/HUMINT): Monitor Russian and Ukrainian media for the dissemination and reception of POW interrogation videos, and analyze their impact on military and civilian morale. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor Russian military and political discourse for further information on "Army purification" to assess its nature and potential impact on force structure and morale. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Analyze the content and context of the Azerbaijani history textbook messages to identify any implications for regional stability or Russian influence operations. (ROUTINE).
  • HUMINT/OSINT: Gather information from open sources and human intelligence regarding the arrest and detention of Sputnik Azerbaijan staff in Baku to understand the implications for RUF media operations and diplomatic relations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor official Ukrainian government announcements and news reports for updates on the appointment of the BEB director and assess the impact of this decision on the government's anti-corruption agenda and administrative efficiency. (ROUTINE).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor KMVA and Kyiv local media for further details on the "Klitschko lie" controversy and its broader implications for public trust and local governance. (ROUTINE).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor Serbian and US government statements, economic analyses, and media reactions to the announced US tariffs on imports from Serbia to determine the actual impact and any potential escalations. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Investigate official Russian aviation reports, local news, and social media from Perm Krai to ascertain the precise cause and expected duration of the new flight restrictions at Perm airport. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  • ISR (IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT): Immediately monitor the movement of UAVs from Sumy into Chernihiv Oblast. Identify their flight path, potential targets, and any associated RUF ground or air activity in the area. (URGENT).
  • ISR (IMINT/SIGINT/OSINT): Immediately monitor flight paths and potential impact areas of the UAV currently heading towards Sumy city. (URGENT).
  • OSINT/HUMINT: Confirm the White House's statement regarding the freeze of military aid to Ukraine, identify the specific reasons, and assess the timeframe for any potential unfreeze. (URGENT).

8. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Reinforce Kharkiv Air Defense: Given the escalating Shahed attacks and high civilian casualties (now 82 injured), immediately allocate additional mobile air defense assets (e.g., Gepard, Avenger, MANPADS teams) to Kharkiv city and its immediate approaches. Prioritize night-time coverage.

    • Tactical Impact: Mitigate civilian casualties, reduce damage to critical infrastructure, preserve public morale, and deny RUF the ability to conduct terror strikes with impunity.
    • Timeline: Immediate (within 6-12 hours).
  2. Bolster Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia Defenses: With RUF explicit intent to encircle Kupyansk and the confirmed "massive offensive" in Zaporizhzhia, reinforce UAF units holding key road networks and critical terrain in both areas. Prioritize anti-armor assets (ATGM, FPV drones) and engineer support for defensive fortification.

    • Tactical Impact: Prevent encirclement, maintain critical supply lines, and inflict heavy attrition on advancing RUF forces in both key operational sectors.
    • Timeline: Immediate (within 12-24 hours).
  3. Counter TCC Targeting: Implement enhanced physical and electronic security measures for all Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs), particularly in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava. This should include reinforced perimeters, increased surveillance (CCTV, drone patrols), and active EW countermeasures to disrupt incoming drones. Accelerate the implementation of plans for TCC dispersal and remote service provision to reduce their vulnerability and ensure continuity of mobilization.

    • Tactical Impact: Protect personnel and infrastructure crucial for mobilization, maintain operational continuity of recruitment efforts, and reduce RUF's psychological impact on the conscription process.
    • Timeline: Urgent (within 24-48 hours).
  4. Strengthen Counter-Corruption in Military Supply: Expedite investigations into alleged corruption within the Ministry of Defense (e.g., unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers). Implement robust quality control checks for all incoming military supplies, especially from domestic contractors.

    • Tactical Impact: Ensure frontline units receive effective and reliable equipment, enhance troop morale by demonstrating accountability, and prevent financial losses that could otherwise be used for defense.
    • Timeline: Ongoing, with immediate internal audits.
  5. Capitalize on RUF Internal Instability: Prepare information operations campaigns highlighting the alleged high-level corruption, suspicious deaths, military misconduct (e.g., Kalmykia rape, alleged sexual assault at children's camp, Kemerovo Oblast sexual assault), and distressing social issues within Russia. This can be used to sow doubt about RUF leadership, integrity, and the benefits of military service within Russia.

    • Tactical Impact: Degrade RUF morale, undermine public trust in Russian state institutions, and potentially contribute to recruitment challenges for RUF.
    • Timeline: Within 24-48 hours (develop and disseminate narratives).
  6. Assess and Integrate Unconventional Air Defense: Conduct a rapid feasibility study and, if viable, prioritize resources to integrate and train volunteer territorial community formations for light aircraft-based Shahed interception.

    • Tactical Impact: Supplement existing air defense capabilities against persistent Shahed threats, potentially freeing up more advanced systems for high-value targets, and bolster local resilience.
    • Timeline: Immediate assessment, potential implementation within 1-2 weeks.
  7. Develop Counter-Tactics for Lone Infantry Assaults: Analyze recent reports of RUF employing lone, lightly equipped infantry. Develop and disseminate immediate counter-tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) for frontline units to effectively neutralize these threats, identify their purpose, and prevent them from compromising defensive positions or intelligence gathering.

    • Tactical Impact: Reduce UAF casualties from unexpected, small-scale probes, prevent information leakage, and maintain tactical advantage on the front lines.
    • Timeline: Immediate (within 12-24 hours).
  8. Counter RUF POW Exploitation: Develop and disseminate pre-capture training and messaging for UAF personnel to mitigate the effectiveness of RUF POW exploitation. Prepare counter-narratives and proactive messaging to discredit RUF-produced POW videos, highlighting their propaganda nature and potential for coercion.

    • Tactical Impact: Protect UAF personnel from psychological manipulation in captivity, maintain unit cohesion, and prevent degradation of public trust.
    • Timeline: Immediate (within 24 hours) for internal training and 48-72 hours for public counter-messaging.
  9. Enhance Air Defense in Chernihiv/Northern Axis: Given the new RUF UAV activity from Sumy into Chernihiv Oblast, immediately assess existing air defense coverage in Chernihiv and its northern approaches. If gaps are identified, reallocate mobile air defense assets to mitigate potential threats.

    • Tactical Impact: Prevent unexpected RUF strikes against Chernihiv Oblast, protect critical infrastructure and civilian population, and deny RUF new reconnaissance or strike vectors.
    • Timeline: Immediate (within 6-12 hours).
  10. Immediate Air Defense Response for Sumy City: The confirmed UAV threat to Sumy city necessitates immediate activation of local air defense assets and public alerting.

    • Tactical Impact: Minimize potential damage and casualties, and demonstrate responsive protection for the civilian population.
    • Timeline: Immediate (ongoing).
  11. Urgent Diplomatic Engagement on US Aid: Given the reported "freeze" on US military aid, prioritize urgent diplomatic channels to confirm the status of aid and advocate for its immediate resumption.

    • Strategic Impact: Ensure continued flow of critical military supplies and maintain strategic partnerships.
    • Timeline: Immediate.
Previous (2025-07-07 22:28:18Z)

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