Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 072200Z JUL 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alerts for ballistic threats lifted. UAV debris caused damage to a non-residential building in Desnianskyi district and a vehicle/water pipe in Solomianskyi district. A damaged heating main impacts approximately 500 buildings. RUF also reported an aerial strike in Kyiv. KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports on "another lie by Klitschko's team," indicating internal political friction potentially impacting local governance or information dissemination. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Agricultural enterprise in Znamyanka Community damaged by RUF attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs impacted Kharkiv city (Shevchenkivskyi and Slobidskyi districts), causing fire and significant casualties (82 injured, including 8 children). Glide bombs (KABs) continue to be used against Kharkiv city and 13 settlements. RUF forces attacked emergency responders. RUF claims liberation of Sobolivka and attempting to cut UAF logistics near Kupyansk for encirclement. RUF aviation airstrikes across Vovchansk and Chuhuiv. A civilian vehicle was attacked by an FPV drone, killing a child. UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Mine detonations remain a civilian threat. RUF sources claim successful "Anvar" SpN unit operations and battle for Kupyansk. Video confirmed Shahed drone impact in a residential area. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. Oleg Synegubov shows aftermath of morning attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, confirming extensive damage to residential buildings and continued casualties. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Explosions heard in Kharkiv, confirmed by Oleg Synegubov and Mayor Terekhov (3 impacts in Kholodnohirskyi district, likely residential areas). Oleg Synegubov reports 6 direct hits on Kharkiv. Terekhov reports a woman seriously injured. Oleg Synegubov later updated injured to 11, then 16, then 33, then 71, and now 82. RUF source Colonelcassad explicitly claims TCCs were hit and encouraged civilians to report TCC locations for further strikes. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment in a forested region. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of engagements against RUF forces near Hlyboka, Kharkiv Oblast, targeting an ammunition depot, fuel depot, shelters, and a cannon. STERNENKO reports RUF continues assault actions in Vovchansk direction. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of RUF aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. Two districts terrorized, residential buildings damaged. RUF source claims FAB-500 strike on crossing point near Ivanivka, with 29th Army advancing. Photo messages confirm RUF use of artillery and drones against Nikopol and Marhanets communities, damaging residential structures. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Nikopol district. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RUF Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) destroyed manpower of 31st UAF Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS reports foreign mercenaries destroyed by FAB strike in Yanvarskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (unverified by UAF). Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne, citing MoD RF. MoD Russia and Poddubny also report liberation of Dachnoye. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a Ukrainian flag installed over Dachne, indicating contested claims. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts, with photos of damaged residential buildings. New information indicates a 36-year-old male was injured in Marhanets community due to an FPV drone attack, and his home was damaged. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast: No significant changes to battlefield geometry. Pokrovsk direction remains most active, UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 attacks (June 29-July 5), eliminating 147 RUF personnel. RUF claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye and Tolstoy, with MoD Russia video visually confirming Poddubnoye capture. RUF VDV active in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF continues to press in Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions. UAF drone operations active near Toretsk. RUF propaganda suggests Chasiv Yar fall leads to UAF defense collapse further west. 5 killed, 1 wounded in Donetsk Oblast shelling. RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area (possibly Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk). MoD Russia video shows drone/artillery strikes in South Donetsk and Chasiv Yar. UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped groups attempting to break through to Torske. RUF reportedly used a "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike drone for first time against civilian object in Druzhkivka. Air Force of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast. RUF 20th and 25th Armies operations reported. DeepState reports National Guardsmen destroyed a RUF 152mm artillery piece near Storozheve. TASS reports DNR head Pushilin claims RUF continues to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) and Poddubnoye (Donetsk), citing DeepState. "Dva mayora" reports fundraising for "stormtroopers" in Kostiantynivka direction. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones (Shaheds) worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Chasiv Yar. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Chervonyy Stav, Serebryanka, Karpivka, towards Novyi Myr and Torske. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Siversk direction near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka and Ivano-Daryivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar and Yablunivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Razine, Promin, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Myrolubivka, Poltavka, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka and towards Filiya, Novomykolayivka, Pokrovsk, Molodetske, Dachne, Muravka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Myrne, Komar, Novosilka and towards Novopavlivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Huliaipole direction near Malynivka. Sternenko posts FPV drone video claiming to be from Pokrovsk direction showing military vehicles. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Kramatorsk. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that Lobkove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, was NOT occupied by the enemy, citing South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn, contradicting DeepState and RUF claims. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) posts photo messages of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye and a drone video showing a RUF military vehicle convoy moving on a dirt road, with destroyed buildings and smoke/explosions. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of Krasnolimansk direction. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo posts video showing a destroyed or disabled tank. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building, civilian belongings, and a child's toy in Komsomolskoye. Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing engagements in Donbas. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Воин DV posts video of a large explosion in Temirovka. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish in the Novopavlivka direction. Дневник Десантника reports aftermath of a fire with a destroyed residential building in Borovoe district. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting" in Zaoskolye. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions as priority front lines. A video from Presidential Brigade of Ukraine described a lone enemy assault against their positions, culminating in an FPV drone strike killing the RUF soldier. Colonelcassad posted a video showing multiple deceased individuals in military uniforms at a recently occupied defensive position, likely Ukrainian casualties, further indicating the intensity of the fighting. STERNENKO posts video of a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel in a dug-in position near Pokrovsk. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that Russian forces have created a "bag" around Ukrainian forces near Kostiantynivka. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire, captioned "Уничтожение миномета и ПВД ВСУ в районе Полтавки," indicating destruction of a mortar and UAF temporary deployment point. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kherson Oblast: RUF claims UAF strike on polyclinic in Nova Kakhovka (unverified). RUF "Dnepr" unit reportedly destroyed UAF M777 howitzer. RUF FPV drone strike on OKKO gas station in Kherson. RUF attacked rescuers. UAF reports repelling one RUF assault. RUF aviation airstrikes at Olhivka. UAF Marines continue air defense operations. MoD Russia video claims drone/artillery strikes. Armored ambulance vehicles arrived in Kherson Oblast (RUF logistical support). Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a significant smoke plume after an explosion in a field. General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. Dva Mayora posts a video (aerial drone footage) of an artillery strike in a wooded area in Kherson direction. Butusov Plus posts a video showing an explosion in a field. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing individuals working in a field, highlighting civilian life under duress. Два майора posts drone footage of military operations showing drone strikes on buildings in Gavrilovka. Mash na Donbashe reports a family of spies was caught in Kherson Oblast for leaking data. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Kherson region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea impacted Mykolaiv city. Significant damage to residential buildings, catering facility, bank. Multiple Shaheds reported shot down. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides overall count of "mopeds." Silvytys Odrony Pivden Ukraine reports a fire at an ammunition storage site at 071000Z JUL 25. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Odesa Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea. Explosion reported. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shahed UAVs. UAF Naval Forces celebrated in Odesa. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 12 Shahed UAVs from Black Sea towards Pivdenny/Chornomorsk, later diverting to Odesa, with 6 remaining. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa with strike drones. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person, with photos and videos confirming extensive fire and damaged vehicles. Sternenko, RBC-Ukraine, and Shef Hayabusa confirm fatality. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms one killed and civilian infrastructure damage. Oleg Synegubov reports one person killed. Rybar posts a video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Басурин о главном posts a video showing a significant smoke plume rising over an urban area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs targeted Poltava Oblast, confirmed strike on TCC building in Kremenchuk (3rd TCC strike this week), 2 injured, nearby residential damage. Video confirms significant damage. Colonelcassad provides "objective control" video of the TCC building in Kremenchuk engulfed in flames and smoke from a previous attack on July 6th. RUF UAV detected from Sumy region moving towards northern Poltava. Dva Mayora posted videos captioned "Beautiful hits on the TCC building in Poltava," confirming the strike. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation continues KAB launches. RUF UAVs moving into Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. RUF MoD video claims destruction of UAF shelters. RUF sources claim UAF redeployed new units to Sumy, and over 20 trucks with RUF personnel reportedly redeploying to Sumy from southern regions. RUF reports 23 UAF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators soliciting support. Animated scheme by Colonelcassad confirms RUF strikes on 05-06 JUL. Two Mayors report explosions in Kondratovka district. A video from Dva Mayora confirms an explosion in a treeline near Kondratovka, Sumy Oblast, from an aerial drone perspective. TASS reports UAF 1st Separate Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. RBC-Ukraine reports killed in Bitytsia shelling risen to 2. Colonelcassad provides video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups from all front directions to Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 private houses burned, 2 deaths, 2 injuries. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports attack on Bitytskyi старостат. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki despite RUF introducing VDV and Naval Infantry. Two Mayors photo message shows map for Sumy direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs launched at Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, followed by a missile alert. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms a missile on Sumy. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Kamyanka, Zelene, Krasne Pershe, Ambarne, Vovchansk and towards Khatnye. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction where Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two residents of Khotinska community in Sumy Oblast were killed due to a strike UAV impact. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms RF AF liberation of Bessalovka. MoD Russia reports that the Sever Group of Forces liberated Bessalovka. Poddubny also reports liberation of Bessalovka. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that RUF is deliberately striking energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast. Dva Mayora posts a video with thermal/infrared imaging showing explosions along a treeline. TASS reports approximately 5 km of the Russian state border at the junction with Sumy Oblast came under Russian army control after the liberation of Bessalovka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Sumy region and actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Vinnytsia Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs detected moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast from southern Kyiv Oblast. Sternenko reports strike UAV threat. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations at its main address due to "tense situation in the country" for civilian safety. Alex Parker Returns confirms the suspension. Басурин о главном posts a photo message of the Vinnytsia Regional TCC and SP Facebook post, confirming the suspension. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attack with 5 Shahed UAVs damaged private/farming enterprises, warehouses, three multi-story buildings, 1 civilian injured. FPV drone attack on Polohivskyi district. UAF drones continue to destroy RUF artillery and logistics. RUF source claims combat, assault on Kamyanske and Mala Tokmachka. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area (possibly Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk). Air raid alerts issued and lifted. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB/KAR launches. Two men wounded in Polohivskyi and Vasylivskyi districts. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove. New air raid alert issued. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) en route to/through Zaporizhzhia, later reporting 2 more. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports enemy attacking Zaporizhzhia with UAVs, initial reports indicate destruction and wounded. RBC-Ukraine confirms renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports at least 10 people injured. Colonelcassad video confirms "Geranium" drone impact in Zaporizhzhia civilian market. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit by drones. RBC-Ukraine also confirms university building hit. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 6 Shahed impacts. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo messages show the aftermath. They also confirm 6 injured are receiving medical help. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights shows drone hit on university building. ASTRA shows video of university damage. RBC-Ukraine shows photos of damage aftermath. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the situation, confirming attacks by at least three drones hitting residential areas and the city center around 10 AM, causing damage to dozens of buildings, university facilities, and resulting in 8 hospitalizations with more casualties expected. General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Plavni. RUF source Poddubny claims "Geranium" (Shaheds) strikes on TCC buildings. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured, then 17 injured. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the number of injured has risen to 11. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine have posted photo messages showing the aftermath. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, killing a 19-year-old and injuring six. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that two servicemen from the protection company of the Zaporizhzhia TCC were injured. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of a large plume of black smoke rising from "ЗАПОРІЗЬКА ПОЛІТЕХНІКА" (Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new "ATTENTION" alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapon employment from the eastern direction. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming a strike on a TCC in Zaporizhzhia. Рыбарь posts photo messages showing the interior of a damaged TCC building. Два майора posts a video on the Zaporizhzhia Front showing aerial reconnaissance/strike. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video detailing the medical response. Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first first time in three years. The accompanying video indicates intensified offensive actions with small groups of 3-4 soldiers and drone usage, primarily aimed at logistical routes and high ground. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Zaporizhzhia region. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posted photo messages celebrating a European wrestling champion, indicating efforts to maintain civilian morale despite ongoing attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new "ATTENTION" alert. Воин DV posts a video showing the daily work of UAV operators of the 35th Army in destroying enemy temporary deployment points (PVD) and strongholds in the Huliaipole direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Local authorities report UAF drone attacks on bus and vehicles, causing casualties (2 killed, 6 injured). RUF claims advanced 2km on new front section at Belgorod/Kharkiv Oblasts junction. UAF drone strike on civilian vehicle on Shebekino-Belgorod highway confirmed. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports civilian woman injured. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack underway. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports 30 UAF aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed by RUF AD. Additional 10 UAVs detected and destroyed. BRICS leaders condemn attacks on bridges/railway infrastructure (May 31, Jun 01, 05). Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed last night. Dnevnik Desantnika reports UAF drone strike on civilian woman. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kaluga Oblast: 5 UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed by RUF AD. Airport restrictions lifted. FSB identified five accomplices of Kyiv's special services involved in arsons. TASS reports FSB detained Russians in 3 regions for helping Kyiv via phone scammers. Operation Z video shows FSB detaining alleged SBU accomplices. ASTRA posts video messages showing individuals apprehended by FSB officers in Ivanovo City. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kamchatka Krai: Governor reports restrictions on mobile internet and geolocation. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports mobile internet has been disabled due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kemerovo Oblast: ASTRA reports a repeat offender serviceman was accused of sexually assaulting his stepdaughter. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk): UAF Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) attacks confirmed on Novorossiysk throughout the night. RUF claims successful repel of some targets. Destroyed USV found. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. RUF claims no damage. RBK-Ukraina reports GUR long-range drones attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. STERNENKO reports GUR drones attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kursk Oblast: UAF reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults. Putin posthumously named 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Mikhail Gudkov. BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor Roman Starovoyt removed from Transport Minister post, under investigation for large-scale theft during fortification construction. Dnevnik Desantnika shows map. WarGonzo posts video claiming NATO participation in mining Kursk region. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the former Minister of Transport of Russia, Roman Starovoyt, committed suicide after being dismissed by Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна also report the death of ex-Minister Starovoyt. Два майора, WarGonzo and Kotsnews also report Starovoyt's suicide. Alex Parker Returns and Два майора report that former Kursk Governor Aleksey Smirnov, recently detained for embezzlement, gave testimony against Starovoyt. TASS reports the former Minister of Transport of Russia, Roman Starovoyt, has been found dead in his car, main version suicide, Investigative Committee establishing circumstances. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message of an explosion in a residential building, preliminary identified as a gas explosion. TASS confirms a gas explosion in an apartment building in Kursk. Дневник Десантника, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns posts videos showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports an explosion in the center of Kursk. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Leningrad Oblast (Kirishi/Ust-Luga): Explosion and ammonia leak on Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port, reports of sinking. Kirishi district reports two UAVs shot down. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. Север.Реалии reports internet will be worsened and EW systems installed for drone defense. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Lipetsk Oblast (Yelets): "UAV attack threat" lifted. Su-57s observed. Air danger alert issued and lifted. Governor reports massive attack last night, no casualties. Игорь Артамонов posts a video depicting the interior of a modern healthcare facility for SVO veterans. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moscow Oblast: 6 UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by RUF AD. High temperatures. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg halted, increased rail transport (disruption confirmed by ASTRA, STERNENKO, TASS, RBC-Ukraine, Shef Hayabusa, Two Mayors). Putin attended forum. RUF source claims enemy attempts to attack Moscow again. Sheremetyevo Airport reports 171 flights cancelled, 56 delayed. Civilian video confirms large crowd. ASTRA reports over 170 flights cancelled at Sheremetyevo and 90 at Pulkovo. "Transport collapse" cost airlines 20 billion rubles. Videos confirm morning drone activity in Krasnozavodsk, Moscow region (smoke plume in residential area, chemical plant target). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Shef Hayabusa posts videos of Krasnozavodsk chemical plant being targeted. Sever.Realii posts video of smoke plume from Krasnozavodsk chemical plant attack. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed. Kotsnews reports on the situation at Sheremetyevo airport. TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions were lifted. News of Moscow posts photo messages showing network outages for MTS. News of Moscow posts a photo message featuring "Othello" promoting weekend plans. TASS reports a Moscow-Antalya flight is returning to the departure airport due to a possible malfunction. TASS posts a photo message reporting an "orange level" weather danger due to heat (+30 to +35 degrees). Новости Москвы reports another death in the Ministry of Transport, of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA confirm this. Новости Москвы posts a video of what appears to be a police investigation in a parking lot, potentially related to the death of Korneichuk. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts multiple videos showing the scene of the discovery of the former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt's body. Новости Москвы posted about a "Taste of Summer" festival, indicating an attempt to project normalcy amidst domestic events. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: Airport restrictions temporarily introduced/lifted. TASS confirms additional rail cars due to airport restrictions. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier Major Pavlov Oleksandr Mykolaiovych near Kulebaki. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports one UAV shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. TASS reports former head of Novgorod Oblast, Andrei Nikitin, may become next Russian Transport Minister. Putin has appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting head of the Ministry of Transport. TASS video shows Putin meeting with Nikitin. TASS reports Nikitin stated intention to create a unified system for unmanned transport. TASS reports Nikitin aiming for Russian transport system to be one of the most effective in the world. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms Nikitin's appointment. ASTRA reports that Prime Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin nominated Andrei Nikitin. TASS reports the State Duma will consider Nikitin's candidacy on Tuesday. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Pskov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced at Pskov airport due to UAV threat, then lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Samara Oblast: Governor transferred significant aid (drones, EW, vehicles) to troops. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • St. Petersburg (Pulkovo Airport): Mass flight delays/cancellations due to UAV threats. ASTRA reports over 90 flights cancelled. TASS reports airport open for reception. Restrictions lifted. Pulkovo warns of possible baggage non-delivery due to high load. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport situation, showing cancelled flights and people resting on floor, citing drone threat. TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon. TASS reports smoking rooms will be free at Pulkovo airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Saratov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced and lifted at Saratov airport. TASS reports a gas explosion in a residential building, causing roof destruction and broken windows. TASS reports the fire has been extinguished. TASS posts video of aftermath. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Tver Oblast: TASS reports three UAVs shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Voronezh Oblast: BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. TASS reports several UAVs detected and destroyed. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Dnevnik Desantnika reports train movement restored after UAV debris fell. Два майора posts a photo message captioned "Воронеж," featuring a black-and-white image of a man. Рыбарь posts two photo messages with the same image. ASTRA reports a serviceman died in an attack on the Borisoglebsk military airfield on July 5. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Republic of Crimea: Russian MoD reports five Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over the Republic of Crimea. Dva Mayora posts about the destruction of five Ukrainian UAVs over the Republic of Crimea, citing the Russian MoD. Операция Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) also reports that five Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Crimea. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • General (RU): RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (likely exaggerated, UAF claims 117/157 neutralized). UAF deep strikes continue to affect Russian air travel. RUF MoD claims 39 UAVs shot down (08:30-14:00 MSK), and additional 48 UAVs. "Protracted Ukrainian UAV attack continues." Satellite imagery indicates possible damage to Borisoglebsk airfield. RUF MoD shows 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing/modernizing drones. New FPV drone video claims "netted" captured UAF drone. TASS confirms flight restrictions. Unconfirmed report of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Ivanovo, Tambov, Yaroslavl. MoD Russia shows military training. Two Mayors video shows RUF AD intercepting drone. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts photos of drones and fundraising messages. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV being tested in Tomsk. TASS reports airline damages of 20 billion rubles. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics." New TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad provides photo of downed reconnaissance/attack drone. TASS reports 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. Rybar provides video showcasing intelligence gathering/analysis. Colonelcassad discusses "important information about the channel's work and bots." ASTRA reports proposal in State Duma for new fee on foreign trips. RBC-Ukraine reports airline collapse will cost 20 billion rubles. Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates this claim. Rosaviatsiya claims all airports working normally (contradicting other sources). Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. TASS reports new bill in State Duma to exempt large families from toll road fees. TASS reports Interior Ministry claims fraudsters use new tricks to install viruses on phones. Two Mayors reports on border area drone attacks. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits. TASS reports Committee of State Duma approved increase of fines up to 1 million rubles for imposing additional goods/services on consumers. TASS reports Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. TASS reports Ministry of Education working on new teacher payment system. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi. TASS reports 1245 UAF personnel losses in the SVO zone per MoD RF. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms RF strikes on TCCs and drone storage. TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including a claim of Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory and civilian targets. MoD Russia posts an image of medals and ribbons. Kotsnews posts a video captioned "Geraniums hit two more TCCs." Fighterbomber posts photos indicating a "124th issue of 333," likely a military graduation, and a photo of a helicopter. TASS reports Iranian President Pezeshkian claimed Israel attempted to assassinate him. TASS reports former first deputy head of Rosgvardiya, Strigunov, was detained for abuse of power, and later accused of bribery. Putin signed a law imposing a fine for failing to inform the military enlistment office about changing residence. Putin signed a law granting the State Automobile Inspectorate the right to prematurely revoke driver's licenses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the arrest of Strigunov. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve in the Russian army by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника reports on military education modernization efforts. MoD Russia posts video of Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov holding a meeting of the expert council on modernizing the military education system. ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years for bribery and fraud. WarGonzo posts a video of a soldier being interviewed. TASS reports one person died and three were injured in an explosion in a lounge bar in Ryazan. Colonelcassad provides the Ministry of Defense's daily summary on the Special Military Operation. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians massively rejoice and thank Russia" for TCC strikes. ASTRA reports Putin legalized signing military contracts with the Russian MoD for stateless persons. Basurin o главном posts a video about a Tomsk realtor being punished. Butusov Plus posts a video of a soldier claiming high weekly casualties within RUF. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree granting veteran status to SVO participants in DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video of fresh graves in a cemetery in Tula. TASS reports UK sanctions against Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry. TASS reports UK sanctions against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko. TASS reports a warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg (2.5K sqm, then 3.5K sqm). Operatyvnyi ZSU also reports the Yekaterinburg fire. ASTRA reports a large warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg, spanning 3500 square meters, with partial roof collapse. TASS reports Aeroflot has stabilized its flight schedule across its route network, indicating some normalization of air travel after recent disruptions. Рыбарь posts an article "Army purification" possibly indicating internal Russian military reforms or purges. TASS reports the court in Baku left the head of "Sputnik Azerbaijan" Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov under arrest. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Dagestan (Buynaksk): Teenager arrested for alleged terrorist act attempt, district head arrested for fraud. Kadyrov_95 video shows Chechen officials inspecting road and meeting. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing a gathering and deployment of military personnel, likely Chechen forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • POW Claim: RUF sources claim capture of Stanislav Anatolievich Kostenko from UAF 80th ODShBr. Butusov Plus claims video shows RUF serviceman alleging torture/abuse by "Somali" unit. TASS video shows Prilepin claiming survival. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts photo/video of deceased individual (likely RUF). Butusov Plus posts video with caption "Chained together..." showing individuals in military-style clothing. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Coordination Staff for POWs in Kharkiv held an event. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of protest by relatives of Colombian individuals who went to fight in Ukraine and are reported missing, highlighting concerns about their status. MoD Russia posted a video featuring a captive Ukrainian serviceman claiming that animals are treated better than soldiers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a clear propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника posts video of an interview with a presumed POW, addressing questions of regime change in Ukraine. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a similar video of a POW interview. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Khabarovsk Krai: Police department recruiting new personnel. Two local women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. Khabarovsk Police posts photo message of police couple. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Russian Issues: Fraudsters bypassing two-factor authentication. Russian government supported bill to increase fines for animal welfare. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. TASS reports 950 cars queue on Crimean Bridge. TASS reports vote of no confidence against EC head Ursula von der Leyen. RF Cabinet of Ministers approved animal treatment plan. Basurin o glavnom posted financial/business snippets. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up at race. TASS reports new bill in State Duma to include period of care for each child up to 1.5 years in insurance record. News of Moscow reports incident at metro station in Moscow. Mash na Donbashe posts video of civilian activity on a beach in Melekino. News of Moscow reports bill to make free travel on toll roads for large families. TASS reports on Spain's running of the bulls. Butusov Plus reports on Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev's death and financial struggles. ASTRA reports a participant of the war in Ukraine killed his wife and daughter in Vladikavkaz. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Here's how 10 years passed" and a photo of a bathroom. Basurin o главном posts "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'." Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts message about hating crypto traders. News of Moscow posts photo "Vitamin C rejuvenates skin." TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years. Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure." Basurin o главном posts a new episode of his "Basurin Answers!" program. Colonelcassad posts a photo message about a bill introduced by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation to perpetuate the memory of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. WarGonzo posts video related to Zakhar Prilepin. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman killed his wife and daughter. ASTRA reports on concert cancellations due to "Z-activists" in Barnaul. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with the caption "Cмеялся." Colonelcassad posts a video featuring two individuals discussing the conflict. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Два майора, WarGonzo, and Kotsnews confirm Starovoyt's death by suicide. Два майора reports that the Investigative Committee of Russia confirmed Starovoyt's suicide. Оперативний ЗСУ reports about another death in the Russian Ministry of Transport of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA also confirm this. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Colonelcassad posts a video also showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. ASTRA posts a video of the police scene related to Starovoyt's death. Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Kotsnews posts a video from a "People's Front" event. AV БогомаZ posts a series of photos and text indicating continued domestic infrastructure development. Бутусов Плюс posts a video showing a soldier being greeted by civilians. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photo messages showing new recruits learning to shoot a grenade launcher. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message showing a boy and his laptop. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a distressing incident where the son of a military serviceman was allegedly sexually assaulted at a children's camp. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman after injecting her with an unknown substance in Kalmykia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Texas: ASTRA reports 82 killed (28 children) due to flooding. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Armenia: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Russian troops are heading to Armenia, citing GUR intelligence, which indicates an order to send personnel to the Russian base in Gyumri. DeepState also posts photo messages (scanned telegrams) confirming the order to send troops to Armenia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Lutsk (Volyn Oblast): Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident where a volunteer died after being beaten and falling from a truck. CONFIDENCE: LOW (RUF propaganda source).
  • Kyrgyzstan: Рыбарь posts a video of a meeting between the Kyrgyz and Russian presidents, highlighting strengthening ties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Iran: Alex Parker Returns reports Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claiming Iran does not need assistance from China and Russia in case of war. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran if Tehran tries to restore its nuclear program. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Black Sea: New groups of RUF Shahed UAVs detected from Black Sea, en route to Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts and Kinburn Spit/Dmytrivka/Parutyne. RUF Naval activity includes 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (8 Kalibr), 1 patrol ship. No missile carriers in Sea of Azov. RUF tactical aviation activity in Azov Sea. Ukrainian source explains why Russia deploys submarines but does not fire. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RUF strikes originating from Black Sea/Crimea. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea (now lifted). Air Force of Ukraine reports movement of strike UAVs from Black Sea/Kherson region towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports air alerts due to drones. Two Mayors video shows rocket launch in Crimea. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports Shahed UAV moving towards Odesa. Air Force of Ukraine reports UAV heading to Odesa from eastern direction. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person in Odesa. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms significant destruction. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (now lifted). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Rotation of IAEA observers confirmed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled as of 070600Z JUL 25. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Олександр Вілкул states in a briefing that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is under control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Transcarpathia (Zakarpattia Oblast): RBK-Ukraina reports a drunk BMW driver rammed a checkpoint, killing a border guard. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photo messages of a meeting with Myroslav Biletskyi, Head of Zakarpattia Oblast Military Administration. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports explosions in Berezyna occurred due to organized illegal manufacture of explosives by locals, with 5 suspects identified. РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting an underground laboratory and 4 tons of explosives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (New): Colonelcassad reports Russian army advancement in the south of DNR, accompanied by multiple photo messages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast (New): Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• General (RU) (New): Rybar posts an image and text congratulating the Air Defense Missile Forces of Russia on July 8. The image depicts a piano on fire, with text referring to "July 8" and "Air Defense Missile Forces Day of the Armed Forces of Russia." This is a propaganda image. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Volyn Oblast (New): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with the caption "How many volunteers went?", likely referring to Ukrainian mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• EU (New): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that the European Union is preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022, citing the French Foreign Minister. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine: Forecast indicates heat up to +37°C and thunderstorms for the coming week. RBC-Ukraina reports strong bad weather in Western Ukraine.
• Impact: High temperatures will exacerbate heat stress on personnel and equipment. Thunderstorms may disrupt drone operations, limit air support, and affect ground maneuverability due to muddy conditions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory: Moscow is experiencing an "orange level" weather danger due to heat, with temperatures expected to reach +30 to +35 degrees Celsius. Новости Москвы reports thunderstorm and hail going to Moscow. Николаевский Ванёк posts a video showing heavy clouds, possibly indicating ongoing or approaching storms.
• Impact: High temperatures may cause heat stress on personnel, particularly those involved in military operations or outdoor duties. May affect morale and operational tempo. Thunderstorms and hail may disrupt air travel and ground movement, impacting logistics and operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Maintaining defensive posture across most sectors. Active counter-drone operations in Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Odesa with successful neutralizations (75 UAVs shot down as of 070635Z, 75/101 total hostile UAVs as of 070636Z). Redeploying units to Sumy direction. Prioritizing air defense against Shahed and ballistic missile threats. Actively using FPV drones against RUF logistics and personnel. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade confirms drone operations. FPV drone footage confirms successful strikes. "Spartan NGU" and "Butusov Plus" videos show successful drone strikes. Appeals for support indicate sustained public support. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopping RUF groups near Torske. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows successful drone strikes on RUF personnel on motorcycles. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations for vehicles. DeepState shows National Guardsmen destroying a RUF 152mm artillery. DeepState reports map updated. Butusov Plus reports past UAF night drone successes. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. GSU and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF combat losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. RBC-Ukraine reports injured in Kharkiv transported to hospitals. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports firefighters extinguished fires in Sumy and Odesa. General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos depict solemn moments of silence. "Brigade Khizhak" released video showing effective June strikes in Toretsk. "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is fundraising for lost equipment/property. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from south, now lifted. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv. UAF Desantno-shturmovi Viyska (DSV) posts video of drone strike on RUF positions. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights claims drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine videos show aftermath of drone attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows aftermath of 6 Shahed impacts in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. Oleg Synegubov states 7 injured in Kharkiv as of latest report. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. General Staff reports RF used around 1270 drones, 39 missiles, and nearly 1000 KABs last week. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Sternenko posts FPV drone video of "Hornets of Dovbush" (UAF unit) continuing to restrain the enemy in Pokrovsk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn confirming Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) was NOT occupied. UAF General Staff provides multiple photo messages of new recruits learning to shoot a grenade launcher within the "Contract 18-24" program. Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle. RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck. UAF Rustem Umierov reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone, 'Merlin-VR'. Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts a video showing two UAF drone operators taking a Russian assault aircraft "in pincers." Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." STERNENKO posts video showing a UAF drone operator destroying RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports a deficit of "Rusoreza." Shef Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing an aerial view of aircraft formation. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video showing military personnel preparing and distributing sushi. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a company that did not pay over 325 million UAH in taxes has compensated the state. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video detailing the medical response. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message that the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. Басурин о главном reports on a Ukrainian statement about reinforcing air defense with volunteer formations using light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds, potentially indicating a new, unconventional approach to air defense. President Zelenskyy confirmed holding a Staff meeting today (07 JUL 25), with reports from the front including Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia), Sumy, and border actions in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, indicating high-level strategic oversight and continued focus on these areas. He also highlighted the importance of drone technology for defense and operations on Russian territory. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel in a dug-in position near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showcasing successful engagement and destruction of an enemy BM-21 Grad MLRS by a Ukrainian FPV drone in Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, focusing on drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photo messages showing two individuals with a drone at dusk, likely UAF personnel demonstrating drone readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF: Main effort in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Chasiv Yar) with high-intensity assaults. Fixing operations in Kharkiv and Sumy to pin UAF reserves. Continued widespread use of glide bombs and FPV drones. Increased drone and missile activity against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. New confirmation of ballistic missile employment capability from northeast. Effective EW implied by UAF UAV losses. RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities and claims of capturing UAF drones. Colonelcassad claims RUF drone operators shot down 50 Ukrainian reconnaissance drones over Chasiv Yar (some by ramming). MoD Russia video showcases UAV strikes. RUF adapted decoy drones ("Gerbera") into strike platforms. Colonelcassad videos confirm RUF 20th and 25th Armies effective use of artillery and drones. Operation Z videos demonstrate RUF capabilities near Pokrovsk. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. Alex Parker Returns claims unsuccessful "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch (some limitation). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts fundraising for drones. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Butusov Plus reports past RF vulnerability to UAF drone capabilities. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging video demonstrates continued drone use for targeting. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying enemy armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. RUF claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (indicating robust AD). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection indicate focus on soldier survivability. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 enemy UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video shows drone-guided artillery. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Shef Hayabusa video highlights RUF AD failures against Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (vulnerability). Two Mayors video of military convoy in Pokrovsk direction. Rybar's video indicates RUF's advanced intelligence capabilities. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. Operation Z video showcasing Russian army drones destroying enemy armor. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Vooin DV posts video of large explosion, likely a FAB strike. Two Mayors video shows specialized marine detachment (likely SpN) diving capabilities. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping (callsign Luna), claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone targeting UAF vehicle. General Staff reports RUF used ~1270 drones, 39 missiles, and ~1000 KABs last week. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming psychological warfare capabilities. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming continued precision strike capability. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. TASS video shows footage claiming to be the liberation of Dachne. Dnevnik Desantnika video reinforces RF AF capabilities in localized ground operations. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity implies an ongoing hybrid warfare capability. Dnevnik Desantnika video of aerial view of Kharkiv urban environment with explosion/smoke plume. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy, some with damage, moving on a dirt road. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction. Kotsnews video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. Dva Mayora video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy. WarGonzo posts video showing a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe video shows a damaged residential area in Vasylivka. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Басурин о главном posts three videos targeting TCCs in Ukraine. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing a gathering and deployment of military personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Военкор Котенок posts two videos of drone footage showing a pickup truck with multiple individuals identified as military personnel and military equipment, traveling through a rural area near Kupyansk. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника posts a tactical analysis of Russian paratroopers with an image of a VDV armored vehicle, suggesting their continued presence and operational focus. WarGonzo posts a video of the Minister of Defense holding a council on the modernization of military education. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka. WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years. The accompanying video indicates intensified offensive actions with small groups of 3-4 soldiers and drone usage, primarily aimed at logistical routes and high ground. Alex Parker Returns provides a video showing a Ukrainian military vehicle, likely a tank, engaged by enemy fire from an aerial perspective. New information details RUF employing single, lightly equipped infantry against UAF positions, possibly as diversionary tactics or using penal battalion/refuseniks. This shows RUF's willingness to expend low-value personnel in probing attacks. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol). Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. ASTRA posts video of a homemade, three-wheeled vehicle used for casualty evacuation, suggesting improvised battlefield modifications. Dnevnik Desantnika posts a video of a Russian paratrooper appealing for drone equipment and supplies. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing what it claims is a downing of a Russian missile by Ukrainian forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Most capabilities), MEDIUM (Oreshnik missile reliability).
• Control Measures: Widespread air raid alerts across multiple Ukrainian oblasts due to UAV, ballistic missile, and aviation weapon threats (Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv). New ballistic missile threat declared for regions with active alerts, originating from northeast, now lifted. Temporary flight restrictions in various Russian airports due to UAV threats. Russian aviation authorities acknowledge interference but claim sufficient resources (contradicted by ASTRA/TASS). Sternenko reports drone safety measures in multiple Russian oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine reports ongoing threats and UAV movements. Lipetsk Oblast air danger alert. TASS reports RUF AD success over Voronezh. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa. Air Force reports UAV heading to Odesa. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. Kyiv City Military Administration reports new air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat, then all-clear. Air Force of Ukraine confirms ballistic missile threat in alert areas, then lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new air raid alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat lifted. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations at its main address for civilian safety. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports widespread air raid alerts due to ballistic missile threat. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo message indicates transport movement restrictions. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from eastern direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "ATTENTION" alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports "all clear" for ballistic missile threats. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs in Lviv Oblast have strengthened security measures. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Shef Hayabusa confirms Vinnytsia TCC suspension. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new "ATTENTION" alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapon employment from the eastern direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message of a map showing ballistic alerts. TASS posts a photo message reporting an "orange level" weather danger due to heat in Moscow. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a text message with the caption "Help the enemy - you will go to prison!". TASS reports Putin signed a law imposing a fine for failing to inform the military enlistment office about changing residence. TASS reports Putin signed a law granting the State Automobile Inspectorate the right to prematurely revoke driver's licenses. Colonelcassad reports Peskov stated information about new DPRK troop contingents in SVO zone resembles an "information hoax." Alex Parker Returns posts a series of photos and text about an alleged incident in Lutsk involving a TCC. Олександр Вілкул in a briefing re-affirms control measures for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports on drone safety measures in temporarily occupied Crimea. TASS reported Aeroflot had stabilized its flight schedule, indicating some control over air travel disruptions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new "ATTENTION" alert. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, according to the Spokesperson of the Ground Forces, Sarantsyev. This indicates an ongoing and adaptive UAF control measure to counter persistent RUF targeting of TCCs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities: RUF maintains significant artillery and air support (FAB-1500, FAB-500 confirmed). Sustained ground assaults using mechanized and VDV units. Robust drone and missile attack capabilities demonstrated against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. New confirmation of ballistic missile employment capability from northeast. Effective EW implied by UAF UAV losses. RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities and claims of capturing UAF drones. Colonelcassad claims RUF drone operators shot down 50 Ukrainian reconnaissance drones over Chasiv Yar (some by ramming). MoD Russia video showcases UAV strikes. RUF adapted decoy drones ("Gerbera") into strike platforms. Colonelcassad videos confirm RUF 20th and 25th Armies effective use of artillery and drones. Operation Z videos demonstrate RUF capabilities near Pokrovsk. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. Alex Parker Returns claims unsuccessful "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch (some limitation). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts fundraising for drones. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Butusov Plus reports past RF vulnerability to UAF drone capabilities. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging video demonstrates continued drone use for targeting. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. RUF claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (indicating robust AD). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection indicate focus on soldier survivability. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 enemy UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video shows drone-guided artillery. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Shef Hayabusa video highlights RUF AD failures against Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (vulnerability). Two Mayors video of military convoy in Pokrovsk direction. Rybar's video indicates RUF's advanced intelligence capabilities. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. Operation Z video showcasing Russian army drones destroying enemy armor. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Vooin DV posts video of large explosion, likely a FAB strike. Two Mayors video shows specialized marine detachment (likely SpN) diving capabilities. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping (callsign Luna), claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone targeting UAF vehicle. General Staff reports RUF used ~1270 drones, 39 missiles, and ~1000 KABs last week. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming psychological warfare capabilities. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming continued precision strike capability. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. TASS video shows footage claiming to be the liberation of Dachne. Dnevnik Desantnika video reinforces RF AF capabilities in localized ground operations. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity implies an ongoing hybrid warfare capability. Dnevnik Desantnika video of aerial view of Kharkiv urban environment with explosion/smoke plume. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy, some with damage, moving on a dirt road. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction. Kotsnews video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. Dva Mayora video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy. WarGonzo posts video showing a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe video shows a damaged residential area in Vasylivka. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Басурин о главном posts three videos targeting TCCs in Ukraine. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing a gathering and deployment of military personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Военкор Котенок posts two videos of drone footage showing a pickup truck with multiple individuals identified as military personnel and military equipment, traveling through a rural area near Kupyansk. Народная милиция ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника posts a tactical analysis of Russian paratroopers. WarGonzo posts a video of the Minister of Defense holding a council on the modernization of military education. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka. WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years. The accompanying video indicates intensified offensive actions with small groups of 3-4 soldiers and drone usage, primarily aimed at logistical routes and high ground. Alex Parker Returns provides a video showing a Ukrainian military vehicle, likely a tank, engaged by enemy fire from an aerial perspective. New information details RUF employing single, lightly equipped infantry against UAF positions, possibly as diversionary tactics or using penal battalion/refuseniks. This shows RUF's willingness to expend low-value personnel in probing attacks. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol). Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. ASTRA posts video of a homemade, three-wheeled vehicle used for casualty evacuation, suggesting improvised battlefield modifications. Dnevnik Desantnika posts a video of a Russian paratrooper appealing for drone equipment and supplies. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing what it claims is a downing of a Russian missile by Ukrainian forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Most capabilities), MEDIUM (Oreshnik missile reliability).
• Intentions:
  • Eastern Axis (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk): Seize Chasiv Yar, consolidate control towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk. Maintain pressure on Pokrovsk. RUF 255th Regiment advances towards Kostiantynivka. RUF source claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye. Rybar analysis suggests advance towards Mirnohrad. Encircle Kupyansk. MoD Russia video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. TASS reports Pushilin claims RUF intent to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Operation Z via Rus Vesna reports ISW assessment on encircling Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk encirclement on roads. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. General Staff reports continued clashes in Eastern directions. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD RF official reports of liberating Dachne and Bessalovka confirm continued intent for localized territorial gains. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) photo message of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye from 07.07.25 indicates continued RUF focus on the Pokrovsk axis. Voenkor Kotenok's Krasnolimansk direction map confirms continued RUF focus on this sector. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemezet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting" in Zaoskolye, reinforcing RUF intent for offensive action in the eastern theater. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting confirmed Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions as priority RUF targets. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery, reinforcing the intent for continued high-intensity engagements. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol), indicating RUF intent to defend positions against such incursions. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. Colonelcassad reports new advancement in the south of DNR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Fix UAF forces, prevent redeployment. Potential for renewed, larger-scale offensive towards Kharkiv (currently shaping). Increased RUF activity in Sumy may indicate new shaping or diversion. TASS reports UAF 1st Tank Brigade on Sumy direction. Air Force reports active tactical aviation in northeast. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas. Воин DV claiming advance of 29th Army in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy Oblast. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv directions. Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits on Kharkiv. Terekhov reports a seriously injured woman. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geranium" (Shaheds) strikes on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV. MoD RF reports of liberating Bessalovka confirm continued intent for localized territorial gains. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly claims TCCs were hit and encouraged civilians to report TCC locations for further "Geranium" strikes. Vooin DV video provides aerial reconnaissance of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction. НгП раZVедка reports Kharkiv received its "deserved prize." Басурин о главном posts a video showing a large explosion and smoke plume over Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника posts a photo message captioned "Тем временем в хохлостане…" Военкор Котенок posts two videos captioned "Охота на автомобильную технику ВСУ в районе Купянска." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of engagements against RUF forces near Hlyboka, Kharkiv Oblast. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Sumy region and actions on Russian territory in border regions of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, indicating continued UAF assessment of RUF intent in these areas. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fixing), MEDIUM (Larger offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy).
  • Zaporizhzhia Offensive: Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years, supported by small groups and drones, indicating RUF intent to achieve significant territorial gains in this sector. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), confirming it as an area of focus for RUF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Deep Operations: Degrade Ukrainian morale and mobilization by striking TCCs and civilian infrastructure. Air Force reports active strike UAVs and ballistic missile threats. Poltava TCC strike (Colonelcassad). New drone attacks on Kyiv and Odesa. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. Attacks on Kharkiv with civilian casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fatality in Odesa. ASTRA confirms 2 killed, 2 injured in Sumy. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Kharkiv explosions in residential areas confirm continued intent to target the city. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports destruction and wounded from drone attack. RUF target of Vinnytsia TCC (suspension of operations) confirms continued intent to degrade mobilization. Confirmed impact on university building in Zaporizhzhia. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine also confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geranium" (Shaheds) strikes on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further "Geranium" strikes. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) states that strikes on TCCs are intended to destroy data and disrupt mobilization in Ukraine. TASS reports that civilians in Kyiv-controlled areas are transmitting data to Russia via messengers about the location of TCCs and UAF deployment sites, indicating a clear RUF intention to exploit such intelligence for precision strikes against these targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Старше Эдды (Older Edda) posts a message clearly indicating RUF intent to continue strikes against TCCs. Colonelcassad's latest video features Boris Rozhin commenting on "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, highlighting the intent to degrade Ukrainian mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Degrade UAF Drone Capabilities: RUF continues to actively target UAF UAV launch/staging sites and attempt to capture UAF drones. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day. Воин DV posts a video showing the daily work of UAV operators of the 35th Army in destroying enemy temporary deployment points (PVD) and strongholds in the Huliaipole direction, demonstrating RUF's continued intent to degrade UAF drone capabilities by targeting their operational bases. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reinforce Presence in Armenia: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports GUR intelligence about Russian troops heading to Armenia, indicating RUF intent to reinforce its presence at the Gyumri base. DeepState also posts photo messages (scanned telegrams) confirming this. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Internal Control and Law Enforcement: AV БогомаZ posts about domestic infrastructure projects. Mash na Donbashe reports on the detention of a family of spies in Kherson Oblast. Basurin o главном posts a video about a realtor being punished. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman was accused of sexually assaulting his stepdaughter in Kemerovo Oblast. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman after injecting her with an unknown substance in Kalmykia. This indicates a concerning internal disciplinary issue within RUF ranks that could impact morale and civilian relations. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran, indicating an intent by Russian sources to highlight international tensions beyond Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • EU Sanctions Impact: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that the European Union is preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022, indicating a clear intention by the EU to increase economic pressure on Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • MLCOA: Continued high-intensity assaults on Chasiv Yar to secure Kanal microdistrict and establish bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire against UAF. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat operations in Donetsk, utilizing thermal drones. KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics capabilities employed. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building activities (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Continued artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Rybar will likely continue to produce operational maps for the eastern front. General Staff reports continued clashes around Chasiv Yar. KABs on Donetsk Oblast indicate continued aerial bombardment in next 1-12 hours. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RUF strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, suggesting continued combat operations impacting civilian areas in the next 1-12 hours. WarGonzo posts a video showing a significant explosion in an urban environment, indicating high-impact strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction, confirming continued localized strikes in the next 1-12 hours. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating persistent offensive operations in the next 1-12 hours. Colonelcassad posts video showing combat in Donbas, indicating continued operations in the next 1-12 hours. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by an explosion, indicating MLCOA for continued precision strikes against structures. Operation Z posts a photo message claiming Russia created a "bag" around Ukrainian forces near Kostiantynivka, indicating MLCOA for continued encirclement efforts. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire, captioned "Уничтожение миномета и ПВД ВСУ в районе Полтавки," indicating MLCOA for continued targeted strikes against UAF positions and equipment in the next 1-12 hours. Colonelcassad posts a photo message showing a fundraising effort for "stormtroopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," indicating MLCOA for continued focused operations in this sector. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka, indicating MLCOA for continued use of glide bombs. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction, indicating continued offensive operations and consolidation. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins suggests continued destructive tactics by RUF in occupied areas. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting in Zaoskolye," indicating a continued MLCOA for intense combat in the eastern sector in the next 1-12 hours. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery, reinforcing MLCOA for continued high-intensity mechanized combat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him, indicating continued localized advances. Colonelcassad provides a situation update on the South-Donetsk direction, indicating continued MLCOA for offensive operations there. Rybar posts an "итоги 27 недели" (results of week 27) video, indicating a continued MLCOA for comprehensive analysis and reporting. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts videos and photo messages of "Otvazhnye" armored groups storming Novoekonomicheskoe, indicating MLCOA for continued armored pushes in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad reports Russian army advancement in the south of DNR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • MDCOA: A concerted, large-scale armored thrust towards Kharkiv city from the north, or a new ground offensive in Sumy Oblast, aimed at opening a new front to further stretch UAF defenses, potentially supported by intensified long-range strikes. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • TCC Targeting: Deliberate and repeated targeting of Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs). Video confirms damage. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, stating UAF TCCs are relocating. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs over the past day. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further strikes. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians massively rejoice and thank Russia" for TCC strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. Басурин о главном posts three videos explicitly promoting RUF strikes on TCCs. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming a strike on a TCC in Zaporizhzhia. Рыбарь posts photos showing a damaged TCC building. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) further amplified the narrative that strikes on TCCs aim to destroy data and disrupt mobilization. Dva Mayora posted videos captioned "Beautiful hits on the TCC building in Poltava," reinforcing this narrative. Старше Эдды (Older Edda) posts a message clearly indicating RUF intent to continue strikes against TCCs. Colonelcassad's latest video features Boris Rozhin commenting on "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, highlighting their perceived effectiveness and public support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Combined Attacks: Continued coordinated drone (Shahed) and ballistic missile attacks against civilian/critical infrastructure. Latest strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa confirm tactic, with high civilian casualties. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" drone attacks. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. Kharkiv explosions in residential areas confirm continued targeting of civilian infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports destruction and wounded from drone attack. Colonelcassad video of "Geranium" impact in Zaporizhzhia civilian market. Confirmed impact on university building in Zaporizhzhia. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka. Басурин о главном posts a video of a smoke plume over Kharkiv. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts of Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. New information from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirms an FPV drone attack on a civilian, indicating the diversified use of drones against non-military targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • VDV Role: Active engagement of VDV units in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Sumy directions. Dnevnik Desantnika's photo message featuring a VDV armored vehicle suggests continued operational focus. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Adaptation in Chasiv Yar: Shift from larger battalion-level assaults to more frequent company-sized mechanized attacks. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics (ramming). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone Sustainment: Dedicated repair/modernization units, claims of capturing UAF drones. Decentralized fundraising for drones. New multipurpose UAV testing. KVN drones for counter-armor. Successful interceptions of UAF reconnaissance/attack drones. Analysis of UAF FPV drone warheads. Rybar's video indicates focus on intelligence for drone operations. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS reports RF forces hit drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Heavy Glide Bomb Employment: Confirmed use of FAB-1500s and FAB-500s. Continued artillery use in Dnipropetrovsk. Vooin DV posts video of a large explosion, likely a FAB strike. General Staff reports ~1000 KABs used last week. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Localized Advances: Explicit RUF claims of advancing after "liberating" Poddubnoye and starting assault on Tolstoy. Video and photos confirm capture of Poddubnoye. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast and Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) and Dnevnik Desantnika videos confirm the liberation of Dachne and Bessalovka. MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka and Dachnoe. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy with damaged vehicles. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. Операция Z reports Russian army is storming Tolstoy, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. Colonelcassad reports new advancement in the south of DNR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Gerbera" Drone Adaptation: First reported use of "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike platform against civilian object in Druzhkivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Communication Resilience: MoD Russia video shows soldiers establishing communication links. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moto-Assaults: RUF forces conducting "moto-assaults" (motorcycle-borne infantry) repelled by UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-UAV Systems: Belarusian counter-UAV system observed. RUF initiative to popularize shooting down enemy drones through training. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Special Forces in Border Areas: "Anvar" SpN unit operating in Sumy and Chernihiv border areas. Two Mayors posts video showcasing diving activities of a "Marine Detachment" (likely RUF SpN). Colonelcassad's video featuring "the first gentleman of Belarus" (seemingly linked to NгП раZVедка) discussing entrepreneurship and show business, while not directly military, may indicate a shift in RUF-affiliated channels' content to broader topics, perhaps to attract a wider audience for propaganda or to appear more 'normal'. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ballistic Missile Experimentation: "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure suggests development/experimentation. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Tactical Training Refinements: "Jeweler's precision" training for stormtroopers in 20th Army. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kupyansk Encirclement TTPs: Deliberate tactical focus on cutting GLOCs around Kupyansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Logistical Support in Occupied Areas: Armored ambulances arriving in Kherson Oblast. ASTRA posts video of a homemade, three-wheeled vehicle used for casualty evacuation, suggesting improvised battlefield modifications. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone-based Targeting: Thermal imaging video demonstrates continued effective use of drones for targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-Robotics Capabilities: RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Psychological Operations with Leaflets: BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching propaganda leaflets with QR codes. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Morale/Religious Support: Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Security Operations: FSB identified accomplices of Kyiv's special services in Kaluga Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained more individuals for assisting Kyiv via phone scammers. TASS reports Interior Ministry claims fraudsters use new tricks to install viruses on phones. Operation Z video confirms FSB detentions. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman killed his wife and daughter. WarGonzo posts video claiming "The entire NATO bloc participated in the mining of the Kursk region." TASS reports former first deputy head of Rosgvardiya, Strigunov, was detained for abuse of power and bribery. Putin signed a law imposing a fine for failing to inform the military enlistment office about changing residence. Putin signed a law granting the State Automobile Inspectorate the right to prematurely revoke driver's licenses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the arrest of Strigunov. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve in the Russian army by contract. Alex Parker Returns confirms this. Дневник Десантника reports on military education modernization efforts. ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years for bribery and fraud. Alex Parker Returns posts a series of photos and text about an alleged incident in Lutsk involving a TCC. Mash na Donbashe reports on the detention of a family of spies in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports one person died and three were injured in an explosion in a lounge bar in Ryazan. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports an explosion in a club near a shopping center in Ryazan. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a distressing incident where the son of a military serviceman was allegedly sexually assaulted at a children's camp, potentially indicating broader issues affecting military families and unit morale. TASS reports that civilians in Kyiv-controlled areas are transmitting data to Russia via messengers about the location of TCCs and UAF deployment sites, indicating a clear RUF intention to exploit such intelligence for precision strikes against these targets. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman after injecting her with an unknown substance in Kalmykia. This incident suggests a concerning internal disciplinary issue within RUF ranks that could impact morale and civilian relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeting UAF Drone Infrastructure: RUF D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging sites. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Corruption Investigation: Former Kursk Governor Roman Starovoyt investigated for large-scale theft during fortification construction. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. Два майора reports Starovoyt's suicide, and that a former Kursk Governor gave testimony against him. TASS reports the former Minister of Transport of Russia, Roman Starovoyt, has been found dead, and the main version is suicide. Оперативний ЗСУ and Alex Parker Returns report another death in the Russian Ministry of Transport of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA also confirm this. Дневник Десантника, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns posts videos showing the scene of Starovoyt's alleged suicide. Basurin o главном posts a video about a Tomsk realtor being punished. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Governmental Appointments: Putin appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting Minister of Transport. ASTRA reports that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin nominated Andrei Nikitin. TASS reports the State Duma will consider Nikitin's candidacy on Tuesday. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Regulatory Focus: Russian Ministry of Transport to create a unified system for unmanned transport identification. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Increased Fines for Consumer Rights Violations: State Duma committee approved increased fines for imposing additional goods/services. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Increased State Duties: Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Negotiation Strategy: Basurin o главном discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov stating Ukraine must enshrine "demilitarization" in a peace agreement. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemezet, reiterate Russia's demands for a peace agreement. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterates Lavrov's statements on territorial integrity. Colonelcassad reports Peskov stated information about new DPRK troop contingents in SVO zone resembles an "information hoax." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeting Critical Infrastructure (Sumy): Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF deliberately targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kamchatka Internet Restrictions: The decision to disable mobile internet in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks" indicates a tactical adaptation by RUF to preemptively counter potential UAF deep strikes or internal unrest. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Urban Attack Diversification: Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Flight Diversions/Malfunctions: TASS reports a Moscow-Antalya flight is returning due to a possible malfunction. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Reinforcement in Armenia: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports GUR intelligence about Russian troops heading to Armenia, indicating RUF intent to reinforce its presence at the Gyumri base. DeepState also posts photo messages (scanned telegrams) confirming this. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • New Laws (RuStore): TASS reports Putin signed a law prohibiting restrictions on installing RuStore on smartphones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Mortar Targeting: Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire impacting a target area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Use of Military Working Dogs: WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Infrastructure Development: AV БогомаZ posts about domestic infrastructure projects. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Disinformation/Information Operations: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a person finding a needle in a peach, claiming it was purchased from an Azerbaijani seller. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Veteran Status for Occupied Territories: Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree granting veteran status to SVO participants in DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Lone Infantry Attacks: RUF is deploying lightly equipped (no armor, helmet, only rifle) individual soldiers in frontal assaults, possibly as reconnaissance-in-force or penal battalion elements to probe UAF positions and draw fire. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Foreign Policy Focus: Alex Parker Returns reports Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claiming Iran does not need assistance from China and Russia in case of war. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran, indicating a tactical adaptation by Russian sources to highlight international tensions beyond Ukraine. TASS reports Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated Trump's threats to impose tariffs on BRICS partners are irresponsible. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Judicial Detention in Azerbaijan: TASS reports the court in Baku left the head of "Sputnik Azerbaijan" Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov under arrest, indicating a tactical change in RUF's handling of media personnel abroad or diplomatic relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • EU Sanctions Threat: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that the European Union is preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022, indicating a tactical adaptation by the EU to increase economic pressure on Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF: Continued ability to sustain offensive operations, including glide bomb and drone usage. Regional governmental support (Samara Oblast). Demonstrated drone repair/modernization. RUF MoD claims destruction of UAF shelters in Sumy Oblast. Appeals for thermal imagers (localized needs). Fundraising for "stormtroopers." Armored ambulances in Kherson. Airline losses (economic impact, confirmed 20 billion rubles). MoD RF demands recovery of rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics" (potential industrial issues). Soldiers building chapel (morale support logistics). Crimean Bridge queue (civilian logistics burden/security). Neck protection in body armor implies sustainment focus. Mobile internet and geolocation restrictions in Kamchatka (internal security/disruption measure). Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor under investigation for large-scale theft, indicating potential internal corruption impacting defense logistics. Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles. TASS reports civil doctors will be sent to military hospitals without a contract. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day. News of Moscow reports network outages for MTS. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts a series of photo messages promoting "LIMITED EDITION T-shirts." Дневник Десантника posts a video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers." Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing the deployment of volunteer military personnel. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. Два майора reports Starovoyt's suicide and that a former Kursk Governor gave testimony against him. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the arrest of former Deputy Head of Rosgvardiya Viktor Strigunov. TASS reports Minister of Emergency Situations Alexander Kurenkov arrived in Baku. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve by contract. Fighterbomber posts photos indicating a "124th issue of 333," likely referring to a military graduation. ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years for bribery and fraud. Butusov Plus posts a video of a soldier claiming high weekly casualties (30-40 people per regiment/brigade) within RUF. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video of fresh graves in a cemetery in Tula. TASS reports UK sanctions against Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry. TASS reports UK sanctions against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko. TASS reports a warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg (2.5K sqm, then 3.5K sqm). Operatyvnyi ZSU also reports the Yekaterinburg fire. ASTRA reports a large warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg, spanning 3500 square meters, with partial roof collapse, indicating potential industrial and logistical disruptions. TASS reports Aeroflot has stabilized its flight schedule across its route network, suggesting improvements in civil aviation logistics. TASS reports no plans to introduce a tax on outbound tourism, indicating efforts to maintain public sentiment on domestic leisure activities. Dnevnik Desantnika reports that fundraising for a specific unit is paused, and funds are being redirected to a new collection, indicating dynamic logistical management within RUF support networks. ASTRA posts video of a homemade, three-wheeled vehicle used for casualty evacuation, highlighting improvised logistical solutions. Dnevnik Desantnika posts a video of a Russian paratrooper appealing for drone equipment and supplies. Два майора posts a video showing medical supplies being prepared by 61st Marine Brigade, demonstrating ongoing efforts for unit sustainment. TASS confirms a warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg has been localized at 3,500 square meters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF: Continued resupply and support. GLOCs into Chasiv Yar under severe fire. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators in Sumy active and soliciting equipment. Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising success. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers appealing for donations. TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. Butusov Plus video showing individuals in military-style clothing near a damaged truck. Vinnytsia TCC suspension due to "tense situation" suggests strain on mobilization logistics. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 6 injured receiving medical help. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) was NOT occupied. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia. RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck. UAF Rustem Umierov reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at an ammunition storage site at 071000Z JUL 25. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video showing military personnel preparing and distributing sushi. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a company that did not pay over 325 million UAH in taxes has compensated the state. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video detailing the medical response. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message that the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. RBC-Україна posts about "Pakunok Shkolyara" (school package) from the Ministry of Social Policy, indicating social welfare initiatives amidst conflict. President Zelenskyy's statement about covering the funding deficit for drone production and interceptor drones, along with filling Ukrainian production lines and working with partners, indicates active measures to secure and expand drone logistics. STERNENKO reports a new fundraising effort for tomorrow, indicating continued resource requirements. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, indicating a tactical adaptation to protect personnel and resources. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, showcasing effective drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. РБК-Україна reports the Cabinet refused to appoint Tsyvinsky as the head of the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB), indicating potential logistical or administrative challenges within the government's economic security apparatus. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages about volunteer contributions, suggesting continued public support for military logistics. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Appears to maintain effective C2 for coordinating multi-domain strikes and ground operations. Putin's public appearances project strong leadership. Internal criticism regarding Maj. Gen. Gudkov's death (some internal C2/tactical discipline issues). Igor Artamonov's video supports state-backed military-industrial complex. Butusov Plus video alleges torture/abuse in "Somali" unit (severe internal C2 issues, discipline). MoD Russia video shows units establishing communication links. Kadyrov_95 video shows integrated civilian/military control. Colonelcassad video shows clear command/coordination during tactical assaults. Alex Parker Returns photo message hints at internal criticism. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging demonstrates integrated drone intelligence. Dnevnik Desantnika reinforces cohesion. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows organized morale effort. TASS reports on EU vote of no confidence. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection imply C2 emphasis on soldier safety. Basurin o главном posted financial/business snippets. WarGonzo publishing multiple frontline summaries. Rybar's video emphasizes intelligence gathering for C2. Colonelcassad's message about channel work/bots. RUF sources indicate ongoing (though undefined) Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor under investigation for large-scale theft. TASS reports Putin appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting Minister of Transport. TASS video shows Putin meeting Nikitin. Basurin o главном publishes a "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'." TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Dnevnik Desantnika video of RF AF operations confirms unit cohesion. Basurin o главном discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group. Lavrov's statement about peace terms reveals top-level C2 directives. TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, who commented on Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory. News of Moscow reports network outages for MTS. Colonelcassad's post about the Lenin bill. Kotsnews video confirms effective C2 in targeting TCCs with "Geraniums." WarGonzo's video of Zakhar Prilepin. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemzet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement by "Molnii" drones. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Басурин о главном posts three videos targeting TCCs. Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing the deployment of volunteer military personnel. Kotsnews posts a video of Putin attending a "Все для Победы!" event. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. TASS reports former first deputy head of Rosgvardiya, Strigunov, was detained for abuse of power and bribery. Putin signed a law imposing a fine for failing to inform the military enlistment office about changing residence. Putin signed a law granting the State Automobile Inspectorate the right to prematurely revoke driver's licenses. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the arrest of Strigunov. TASS reports Minister of Emergency Situations Alexander Kurenkov arrived in Baku. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree allowing stateless persons to serve by contract. Дневник Десантника reports on military education modernization efforts. ASTRA reports Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin nominated Andrei Nikitin. TASS reports the State Duma will consider Nikitin's candidacy on Tuesday. WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years for bribery and fraud. Alex Parker Returns posts a series of photos and text about an alleged incident in Lutsk involving a TCC. Mash na Donbashe reports on the detention of a family of spies in Kherson Oblast. TASS reports one person died and three were injured in an explosion in a lounge bar in Ryazan. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports an explosion in a club near a shopping center in Ryazan. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a distressing incident where the son of a military serviceman was allegedly sexually assaulted at a children's camp, potentially indicating broader issues affecting military families and unit morale. Игорь Стрелков (Igor Strelkov) posts a message stating "К прежнему возврата не будет уже никогда и даже частичного" (There will be no return to the past, not even partially, ever), which implies critical commentary on the overall strategic direction or C2 effectiveness. Kotsnews posted a photo message implying public discontent with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, indicating continued C2 efforts to shape the information environment. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman in Kalmykia. This incident suggests continued C2 failures in maintaining discipline and preventing serious misconduct within military ranks. Рыбарь posts an article "Army purification" possibly indicating internal Russian military reforms or purges, suggesting C2 efforts to address internal issues. TASS reports the court in Baku left the head of "Sputnik Azerbaijan" Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov under arrest, indicating RUF C2 challenges regarding media operations abroad. Colonelcassad's latest video features Boris Rozhin commenting on "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, highlighting coordination and intent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Overall C2), MEDIUM (Internal disciplinary issues within specific units, potential for emerging internal criticism).
• UAF: Demonstrating coordinated air defense and effective counter-drone operations. Concerns regarding readiness of some TRO units due to conscription challenges. DeepState video of successful 152mm artillery destruction. Oleg Vilkul reports situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on casualties in Kharkiv and Odesa (rapid reporting, coordination). General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Operatyvnyi ZSU, KMVA videos/photos emphasize daily moments of silence. General Staff reports estimated RUF combat losses. Air Force reports 75 UAVs shot down (out of 101 drones and 4 missiles). Air Force of Ukraine and Oblast Military Administrations are issuing rapid alerts for ballistic missile and drone threats and providing immediate updates on impacts/casualties. Vinnytsia TCC suspending operations indicates rapid C2 response to perceived threats. Oleg Synegubov providing immediate updates on Kharkiv casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn contradicting DeepState's report on Lobkove. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia. UAF General Staff releases multiple photo messages of new recruits of the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video showing two UAF drone operators targeting a Russian assault aircraft. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a fire at an ammunition storage site in Mykolaiv Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF striking energy and gas facilities in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Oleg Synegubov reports on the rising number of injured in Kharkiv (33). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." STERNENKO posts video showing a UAF drone operator destroying RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports a deficit of "Rusoreza." Shef Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing an aerial view of aircraft formation. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video showing military personnel preparing and distributing sushi. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a company that did not pay over 325 million UAH in taxes has compensated the state. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video detailing the medical response. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message that the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. Басурин о главном reports on a Ukrainian statement about reinforcing air defense with volunteer formations using light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds, potentially indicating a C2 decision to explore unconventional air defense. President Zelenskyy confirmed holding a Staff meeting today (07 JUL 25), detailing discussions on front-line situations and drone technology, indicating effective C2 and strategic oversight. STERNENKO reported Zelenskyy's evening address, where he noted three fallen warriors to be posthumously awarded Hero of Ukraine, demonstrating UAF leadership's commitment to morale and recognition. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, indicating a proactive C2 adaptation to protect personnel and ensure continuity of mobilization efforts. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showcasing successful engagement and destruction of an enemy BM-21 Grad MLRS by a Ukrainian FPV drone in Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, showcasing effective drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. RBC-Ukraine posts about the awarding of three fallen warriors with Hero of Ukraine, boosting morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts two photo messages (at 20:45:48 and 20:47:04) providing operational information as of 22:00 07.07.2025, demonstrating ongoing C2 oversight and information dissemination. The first image of two individuals with a drone at dusk indicates UAF C2 support for drone operations. The second image, the summary report, provides an updated overview of UAF operations across various fronts (Kramatorsk, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, South Slobozhansky, Kursk, North Slobozhansky), indicating continued C2 over extensive front lines. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages about volunteer contributions, suggesting continued C2 efforts to encourage public support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Air defense/counter-drone, targeting), MEDIUM (TRO readiness issues).

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains resilient defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Efforts to counter RUF advances and fix forces. DeepState reports map updated. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. UAF General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF combat losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove and Poddubnoye (tactical setbacks). UAF DSV (Air Assault Forces) video shows effective drone strikes on RUF positions. UAF leadership (Oleg Synegubov, Mayor Terekhov) providing immediate updates on Kharkiv attacks. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine videos show aftermath of drone attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia. General Staff reports daily clashes across the frontlines, including successful repelling of 24 assaults in Sumy direction. Sternenko posts FPV drone video of "Hornets of Dovbush" (UAF unit) continuing to restrain the enemy in Pokrovsk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn confirming Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) was NOT occupied. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia. UAF General Staff provides multiple photo messages of new recruits of the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade undergoing basic military training. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. Oleg Synegubov reports on the rising number of injured in Kharkiv (33). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video showing military personnel preparing and distributing sushi. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message that the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink dish. РБК-Україна reports "Сумиобленерго" working in enhanced mode to restore power distribution. Operation Z reports a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years, indicating UAF forces are now facing a significant, widespread ground offensive. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting today highlighted ongoing efforts on multiple fronts (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Sumy, Kursk/Belgorod border areas), indicating active UAF force posture and engagement across these sectors. A video from Presidential Brigade of Ukraine described UAF engagement with a lone enemy assault, successfully neutralizing the threat with an FPV drone, demonstrating UAF readiness and tactical effectiveness against probing attacks. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel in a dug-in position near Pokrovsk. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, indicating a proactive adjustment to maintain force posture and readiness. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, showcasing effective drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. RBC-Ukraine posts about the awarding of three fallen warriors with Hero of Ukraine, boosting morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts two photo messages demonstrating UAF drone capabilities and providing updated operational information as of 22:00 07.07.2025 across multiple fronts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages about volunteer contributions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with the caption "How many volunteers went?", suggesting an ongoing recruitment or mobilization effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Air Defense: UAF neutralized 75 RUF UAVs (75/101 total) as of 070636Z, and successfully engaged Shaheds over Kyiv and Odesa. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shaheds. Air Force confirms continued interception. Sternenko video confirms 4 RUF UAVs shot down. Ballistic threat in Kyiv lifted. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports active AD despite fatality. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful downing of UAVs over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes on RUF positions. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. General Staff reports 24 Russian army assaults repelled in Sumy direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) was NOT occupied. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. UAF General Staff providing photo messages of new recruits training for the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video showing two UAF drone operators targeting a Russian assault aircraft. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of UAF drone operators effectively destroying enemy positions and vehicles on the Kupyansk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." STERNENKO reports GUR drones attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of an aerial view of aircraft formation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message about the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. РБК-Україна posts a video discussing Russian losses in Sumy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts photos of a commemorative coin for "Vampire" UAVs. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink satellite dish. Басурин о главном reports on a Ukrainian statement about reinforcing air defense with volunteer formations using light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds, indicating a tactical adaptation in air defense strategy. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting acknowledged ongoing operations on Russian territory in border areas. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel near Pokrovsk. Butusov Plus posts a video of an epic detonation of a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS after a Ukrainian FPV drone strike in Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, indicating a tactical adaptation and success in maintaining mobilization efforts despite RUF targeting. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, showcasing effective drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. RBC-Ukraine posts about the awarding of three fallen warriors with Hero of Ukraine, boosting morale. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Drone Operations: UAF continues effective use of drones for reconnaissance and precision strikes (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators in Sumy active and soliciting equipment. Sternenko FPV drone footage, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Butusov Plus videos confirm successful strikes. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped RUF groups near Torske. DeepState destroyed RUF 152mm artillery. Past UAF night drone successes (Avdiivka). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. UAF deep strikes on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant confirmed. Alexey Biloshitsky (Brigade Khizhak) video showcases effective June drone strikes in Toretsk sector. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. Sternenko posts FPV drone video showing military vehicles in Pokrovsk direction. Butusov Plus posts a video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle. A video from Presidential Brigade of Ukraine showed an FPV drone strike neutralizing a lone RUF soldier, demonstrating direct tactical success of drone operations against probing attacks. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, showcasing effective drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message of two individuals with a drone at dusk, visually confirming UAF drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Challenges: Repeated targeting of TCCs by RUF. Internal discourse on conscription effectiveness and readiness of some newly conscripted personnel (TRO). Claimed capture of UAF 80th ODShBr serviceman. RUF attempts to exploit public apprehension (female mobilization). TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage (now 82 injured in Kharkiv) straining medical/emergency services. Fatality and extensive damage in Odesa and Sumy, stressing emergency response. Damaged heating main in Kyiv. Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. At least 10 people injured in Zaporizhzhia drone attack, with destruction. Kharkiv residential areas hit, increasing civilian casualties. Vinnytsia TCC suspension impacts mobilization efforts. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast. Shef Hayabusa posts photos depicting the aftermath of attacks on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports on SSO special forces raid. Oleg Synegubov provided a video update on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms this. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing the chaotic and damaged interior of a residential area in Komsomolskoye. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, killing a 19-year-old and injuring six. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. STERNENKO posts about "deficit rusoreza." Басурин о главном posts videos attempting to show Ukrainian civilians "overjoyed" by TCC strikes. Koordynatsijnyy shtab z pytanʹ povodzhennya z viysʹkovopolonenymy (Coordination Staff for POWs) has published multiple photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video highlighting harsh working conditions for Kherson residents. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion in Zhytomyr. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a medical professional discussing the condition of 11 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts of Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins indicates low morale due to widespread destruction in occupied/contested areas. An FPV drone attack on a civilian in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring one, signifies a setback in civilian protection. Butusov Plus posts a video of a woman expressing distress over her son, an alleged soldier with a disability, being sent to Luhansk and facing severe hardship without communication. RBC-Україна reports Cabinet not appointing director of BEB, indicating transparency regarding internal challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 RUF attacks, eliminating 147 RUF personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Successful neutralization of 75 RUF UAVs (75/101 total) as of 070636Z, and a high percentage of incoming UAVs over Kyiv and Odesa. Sternenko video confirms 4 RUF UAVs shot down. Ballistic threat in Kyiv lifted. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports active AD despite fatality. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful downing of UAVs over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes on RUF positions. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. General Staff reports 24 Russian army assaults repelled in Sumy direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) was NOT occupied. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. UAF General Staff providing photo messages of new recruits training for the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video showing two UAF drone operators targeting a Russian assault aircraft. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of UAF drone operators effectively destroying enemy positions and vehicles on the Kupyansk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." STERNENKO reports GUR drones attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of an aerial view of aircraft formation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message about the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. РБК-Україна posts a video discussing Russian losses in Sumy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts photos of a commemorative coin for "Vampire" UAVs. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a motorcycle, a shelter, and a Starlink satellite dish. Басурин о главном reports on a Ukrainian statement about reinforcing air defense with volunteer formations using light aircraft to shoot down Shaheds, indicating a tactical adaptation in air defense strategy. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting acknowledged ongoing operations on Russian territory in border areas. STERNENKO posts video showing a drone strike by Ukrainian 55th OAbr destroying 3x RUF personnel near Pokrovsk. Butusov Plus posts a video of an epic detonation of a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS after a Ukrainian FPV drone strike in Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, indicating a tactical adaptation and success in maintaining mobilization efforts despite RUF targeting. Оперативний ЗСУ posts videos of the "Khizhak" Brigade's June combat operations, showcasing effective drone strikes on enemy personnel and vehicles. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of 63rd OMBr drone operators conducting strikes. RBC-Ukraine posts about the awarding of three fallen warriors with Hero of Ukraine, boosting morale. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of SSO forces conducting a reconnaissance/engagement in a forested environment, with thermal imaging and confirmed enemy casualties (Russian flag, skull symbol). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF USV attacks on Novorossiysk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone strikes against RUF artillery/logistics (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). FPV drone footage provides evidence. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped RUF groups near Torske. DeepState destroyed RUF 152mm artillery. Past UAF night drone successes (Avdiivka). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. UAF deep strikes on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant confirmed. Alexey Biloshitsky (Brigade Khizhak) video showcases effective June drone strikes in Toretsk sector. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. Sternenko posts FPV drone video showing military vehicles in Pokrovsk direction. Butusov Plus posts a video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle. A video from Presidential Brigade of Ukraine showed an FPV drone strike neutralizing a lone RUF soldier, demonstrating direct tactical success of drone operations against probing attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone attacks against targets in Leningrad Oblast. Sternenko confirms drone safety concerns in RU. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Secret request" for German weapons, Bild published list. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising success. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Unconfirmed reports of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • DeepState reports map updated. DeepState's geo-location capabilities effectively tracking territorial changes. DeepState's report on Lobkove occupation was contradicted, implying a potential error or outdated information in DeepState's initial assessment, which would be a setback for their accuracy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Oleg Vilkul reports situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zvizdets Mangust reports UAF holding positions near Yunakivka and Sadki against elite RUF units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • SBU reports preventing a terrorist act in Zaporizhzhia, arresting FSB agents planning to blow up Azov fighters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises in Zhytomyr Oblast, with three individuals notified of suspicion. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a company repaid 325M UAH in taxes after an investigation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of a meeting with the President of the National Council of Switzerland, highlighting continued diplomatic support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • EU Sanctions Threat: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that the European Union is preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022, signaling a diplomatic success in increasing pressure on Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Setbacks:
  • RUF claimed capture of Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, and Tolstoy (localized territorial losses confirmed by RUF sources, MoD Russia video, Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights). General Staff reports continued clashes and implies some tactical retreats. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast and Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) and Dnevnik Desantnika videos confirm the liberation of Dachne and Bessalovka. MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka and Dachnoe. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy with damaged vehicles. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast. Операция Z reports Russian army is storming Tolstoy, advancing towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him. Colonelcassad reports new advancement in the south of DNR, indicating territorial loss. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Continued RUF pressure on Chasiv Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from persistent RUF drone, missile, and glide bomb attacks (82 injured in Kharkiv, 1 killed in Odesa, 2 killed/2 injured in Sumy). Damage to TCCs, residential buildings, heating main in Kyiv. "Gerbera" decoy drone used as strike drone. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows smoke and fires in Sumy. Photos/videos confirm damage and casualties. Kharkiv residential areas hit, multiple explosions. Zaporizhzhia drone attack causes destruction and at least 10 injured. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Vinnytsia TCC suspension due to perceived threat. Civilian university building hit in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast. Shef Hayabusa posts photos depicting the aftermath of attacks on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports on SSO special forces raid. Oleg Synegubov provided a video update on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms this. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing the chaotic and damaged interior of a residential area in Komsomolskoye. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, killing a 19-year-old and injuring six. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. STERNENKO posts about "deficit rusoreza." Басурин о главном posts videos attempting to show Ukrainian civilians "overjoyed" by TCC strikes. Koordynatsijnyy shtab z pytanʹ povodzhennya z viysʹkovopolonenymy (Coordination Staff for POWs) has published multiple photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video highlighting harsh working conditions for Kherson residents. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion in Zhytomyr. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a medical professional discussing the condition of 11 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts of Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins indicates the severe destruction and loss of infrastructure, serving as a constraint on future operations and civilian return. An FPV drone attack on a civilian in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring one, signifies a setback in civilian protection. Butusov Plus posts a video of a woman expressing distress over her son, an alleged soldier with a disability, being sent to Luhansk and facing severe hardship without communication. RBC-Україна reports Cabinet not appointing director of BEB, indicating a setback in government decision making. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reported UAF drone attack on civilian vehicle in Belgorod Oblast (RUF reporting). Dnevnik Desantnika reports UAF drone strike on civilian woman in Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports a participant of the war in Ukraine killed his wife and daughter in Vladikavkaz. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman killed his wife and daughter. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman was accused of sexually assaulting his stepdaughter in Kemerovo Oblast. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman in Kalmykia, highlighting a severe internal setback for RUF in terms of discipline and conduct. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF AD claimed destruction of 3 UAVs over Tver, 1 over Novgorod, successful engagement by 35th Combined Arms Army. TASS reports several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Colonelcassad provides photos of downed drone. TASS claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Lipetsk Governor reports massive attack repelled. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport indicating flight disruptions due to drone threat. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi. TASS video shows flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions lifted. ASTRA reports a serviceman died in an attack on the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast on July 5. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure (unverified but significant if true). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ongoing drone threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports estimated airline damages of 20 billion rubles due to flight disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics" (potential procurement challenges). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF claims of destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF claims UAF losses due to fatigue and low morale (propaganda). CONFIDENCE: LOW.
  • Khabarovsk Krai Police report two women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports queue of 950 cars on Crimean Bridge. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports 4/101 missiles neutralized by UAF AD (suggests some missiles successfully impacted). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Rubizh National Guard Brigade reports destroyed property and equipment, requiring fundraising. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF General Staff reports ~1270 drones and 39 missiles successfully impacted Ukraine last week. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official. WarGonzo posts video showing a destroyed or disabled tank. TASS reports a gas explosion in a residential building in Saratov Oblast. TASS reports a Moscow-Antalya flight returning due to possible malfunction. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. TASS reports former first deputy head of Rosgvardiya, Strigunov, was detained for abuse of power and bribery. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the arrest of Strigunov. Оперативний ЗСУ reports about another death in the Russian Ministry of Transport of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA also confirm this. ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years for bribery and fraud. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports an explosion in Kursk. TASS reports one person died and three were injured in an explosion in a lounge bar in Ryazan. TASS reports UK sanctions against Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry and against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko, implying that RUF will leverage this for propaganda about Western aggression. TASS reports a warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg. ASTRA reports a large warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg (3500 sqm) with partial roof collapse, indicating a significant setback impacting Russian industrial capabilities. TASS reports the court in Baku left the head of "Sputnik Azerbaijan" Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov under arrest, which is a setback for RUF media operations and potentially for diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Operation Z reports a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the first time in three years, indicating a major tactical setback in the region, confirmed by a Ukrainian military source. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника posts a video showing what it claims is the downing of a Russian missile by Ukrainian forces, indicating a successful UAF air defense engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Resource Requirements: Continued need for robust air defense systems (ballistic missile interception). Enhanced counter-battery and ISR capabilities for Chasiv Yar. Additional protective equipment and medical supplies for frontline units. Specific requests for generators, drone spare parts, binoculars, drone control goggles (UAF 21st OMBr). Thermal imagers for night vision. Accelerated German weapons delivery. Investment in Ukrainian drones, AI, cyber defense. Humanitarian aid for civilian casualties and infrastructure repair (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kyiv). Funds for equipment/property restoration for Rubizh National Guard Brigade. Increased civilian casualties in Kharkiv (current attacks) and Zaporizhzhia (at least 10 injured) requiring immediate humanitarian/medical assistance and continued civilian infrastructure repair resources. Additional security measures for TCCs in response to targeting. Ukrainian list of desired German weapons is for billions of euros. Immediate medical assistance for 11 injured in Zaporizhzhia and 82 injured in Kharkiv will strain medical resources. RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. Дневник Десантника posts a video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers." ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video on providing food to soldiers. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv. Colonelcassad posts a photo message showing a fundraising effort for "stormtroopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a medical professional discussing the condition of 11 injured civilians. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message about the 24th Brigade is creating a unit to counter enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces targeting enemy assets. RBC-Україна posts about "Pakunok Shkolyara" (school package) from the Ministry of Social Policy, indicating a need for assistance for schoolchildren. President Zelenskyy's statement about covering the funding deficit for drone production and interceptor drones, along with filling Ukrainian production lines and working with partners, highlights a critical resource requirement for Ukraine's defense industry. STERNENKO reports a new fundraising effort for tomorrow ("5 hryvnias") indicating continued public appeals for resources. STERNENKO posts FPV drone footage showing successful strike by CHIMERA group. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages about volunteer contributions, demonstrating a continued need for public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with the caption "How many volunteers went?", suggesting ongoing resource needs for recruitment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Constraints: Degradation of GLOCs into Chasiv Yar. Challenges in rapidly integrating and training new conscripts (TRO units). Alleged internal RUF abuses. TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. Increase in civilian casualties (now 82 injured in Kharkiv) straining medical/emergency services. Fatality and extensive damage in Odesa and Sumy, stressing emergency response. Kyiv hot water outage due to infrastructure damage. Su-34 bombardier loss (potential constraint on RUF air ops). Vinnytsia TCC suspension indicates a constraint on current mobilization operations. Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia. Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at an ammunition storage site. STERNENKO posts about "deficit rusoreza." Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing the chaotic and damaged interior of a residential area in Komsomolskoye. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, with casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion on the territory of production premises in Zhytomyr Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a medical professional discussing the condition of 11 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts of Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins indicates the severe destruction and loss of infrastructure, serving as a constraint on future operations and civilian return. An FPV drone attack on a civilian in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring one, signifies a setback in civilian protection. Butusov Plus posts a video of a woman expressing distress over her son, an alleged soldier with a disability, being sent to Luhansk and facing severe hardship without communication. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF:

  • Hero Worship: Extensive propaganda around Mikhail Gudkov, Putin's attendance at "All for Victory!" forum, signing guitar. Igor Artamonov video. Dnevnik Desantnika aims to foster community/stability. Colonelcassad's interview promoting counter-drone training. "Moments of the SVO" photo messages. "Airborne brotherhood, family" photo. Soldiers building chapel. Neck protection on body armor. Basurin o главном historical narratives. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo. WarGonzo frontline summaries. Two Mayors video of 61st Marine Brigade thanking supporters, showing medical kit preparation. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ publishes message about new benefits for combat veterans. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Here's how 10 years passed." Alex Parker Returns posts photo of bathroom. TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon. MoD Russia posts an image of medals and ribbons. WarGonzo posts a video related to Zakhar Prilepin. Basurin o главном posts a political cartoon promoting the "reincarnation of white helmets." Fighterbomber posts photos indicating a "124th issue of 333." TASS posts photos of Putin at BRICS summit. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts a series of photo messages promoting "LIMITED EDITION T-shirts." Дневник Десантника posts a video appealing for donations for "Paratroopers." Kadyrov_95 posts a video showing the gathering and deployment of military personnel. Kotsnews posts a video of Putin attending a "Все для Победы!" event. Kotsnews also posts a video from a "People's Front" event. Дневник Десантника reports on military education modernization. MoD Russia posts video of Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov holding a meeting. WarGonzo posts a video showing dogs being tested for combat operations. AV БогомаZ posts about domestic infrastructure projects. Бутусов Плюс posts a video showing a soldier being greeted by civilians. Два майора posts a video of a middle-aged man speaking. Военкор Котенок posts a photo message about a schoolboy writing a book. Дневник Десантника reports Putin signed a decree granting veteran status to SVO participants. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages advertising a book "Бахмут как есть", likely contributing to a narrative of Russian military experiences and sacrifices. Kotsnews posts a photo message captioned "Trench prose of Adler: Always - himself!", implying a narrative of self-reliance and harsh combat. MoD Russia posts "Top News Today" photo messages, aiming to control the daily narrative. Rybar's July 8th post celebrating Russian Air Defense Missile Forces Day is a clear propaganda effort to boost morale and highlight capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Narrative Control: Claims of "liberation" (Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, Tolstoy, Zirka, Dachne, Bessalovka, Varachino, Novoekonomicheskoe, Nikolaevka), exaggerated UAF losses (120 UAVs, 48 UAVs in 5 hours, 75/101 UAVs, 0/4 missiles shot down, 75 UAVs shot down, ~1245 personnel losses), RUF claims of destroying 31st UAF Brigade manpower and foreign mercenaries. Rosaviatsia vs. ASTRA/TASS on airport disruptions. Operation Z portrays UAF as targeting civilians. "Voenkor Kotenok" video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Claims Kupyansk encirclement. MoD Russia video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Operation Z on "fierce battles" near Pokrovsk. TASS reports Pushilin's claims of encircling Krasnoarmeysk. Colonelcassad photos of Russian flags in Poddubnoye. Operation Z on Ukraine "sliding towards authoritarianism." Rybar's "Chronicle of the special military operation." Rybar's tactical analysis/map of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd. Operation Z via Rus Vesna uses ISW assessment on Pokrovsk encirclement. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk battle on roads. Alex Parker Returns photo message hints at internal criticism. TASS uses The Economist to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership. TASS claims 4,000 UAF losses. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. TASS claims UAF suffering losses due to fatigue/low morale. TASS claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. TASS/RBC-Ukraine reporting on Ursula von der Leyen no confidence vote. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. WarGonzo tactical maps. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot for news. Poddubny message frames Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" toward negotiations. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight. RUF claims of "Geranium" strikes in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. RUF claims Ilsky Oil Refinery undamaged after UAV attack. Mash na Donbashe video of civilian activity in Melekino. TASS video shows a soldier (callsign Luna) claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering. Basurin o главном video shows local resident claiming atrocities/war crimes by UAF. Alex Parker Returns video states "Geraniums" are "weapon of victory." Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk) and Bessalovka (Sumy), and claims ~1245 personnel losses. Rybar claims Poland closing border with Germany. TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries. TASS reports Lavrov's statements on peace agreement terms. Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground" continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure." Poddubny reports that the Russian army liberated Bessalovka and Dachnoe. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Dachnoye and Bessalovka. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov's statement about "demilitarization" as peace terms. ASTRA posts video claiming First Channel cut out mention of Ukraine from old show. Colonelcassad posts about the Lenin bill. WarGonzo posts a video related to Zakhar Prilepin. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemezet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka. Дневник Десантника posts a map showing what it claims is control of 5km of border territory. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterates Lavrov's statements on territorial integrity. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message about the Israeli brand "Zielinski & Rozen" supplying soap to Ukrainian volunteers. Басурин о главном posts a video showing a drunk Lviv official's statement. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died. TASS reports that civilians in Kyiv-controlled areas are transmitting data to Russia via messengers about the location of TCCs and UAF deployment sites, indicating a clear RUF intention to exploit such intelligence for precision strikes against these targets. TASS reports Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated Trump's threats to impose tariffs on BRICS partners are irresponsible. Alex Parker Returns posts a map comparing global trade dominance by the U.S., EU, and China. Rybar posts a "results of week 27" video, which provides a narrative summary of recent operations from a Russian perspective. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts a photo message about the EU preparing to impose the toughest sanctions against Russia since 2022. This directly counters the narrative of Russia's economic resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TCC Targeting: RUF sources frame strikes on TCCs as "saving Ukrainian population." Colonelcassad's video on "man-catcher lair" (TCC). NгП раZVедка states TCCs are "hunted." Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs might be dispersed, and some services could be provided remotely, potentially reducing the effectiveness of this narrative. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geranium" (Shahed) strikes on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, stating UAF TCCs are relocating and that "ordinary Ukrainians" support this. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs over the past day. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further strikes. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians massively rejoice and thank Russia" for TCC strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. Басурин о главном posts three videos explicitly promoting RUF strikes on TCCs. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming a strike on a TCC in Zaporizhzhia. Рыбарь posts photos showing a damaged TCC building. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) further amplified the narrative that strikes on TCCs aim to destroy data and disrupt mobilization. Dva Mayora posted videos captioned "Beautiful hits on the TCC building in Poltava," reinforcing this narrative. Старше Эдды (Older Edda) posts a message clearly indicating RUF intent to continue strikes against TCCs. Colonelcassad's latest video features Boris Rozhin commenting on "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, highlighting their perceived effectiveness and public support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Domestic Focus: Putin's rhetoric/awards. BRICS declaration condemns sanctions, infrastructure attacks. Lavrov meetings. TASS reports Trump's tariffs for BRICS-supporting countries. Colonelcassad video of Russian-Iranian negotiations. TASS reports Trump on Gaza ceasefire. RDIF head on "Global South." TASS reports new law against fraudsters. Alex Parker Returns on "hunting Tajiks." TASS quotes Lavrov on US debt. TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. TASS reports social bill for children. Prilepin video on survival. Khabarovsk Police recruitment. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery from "Electroautomatics." TASS reports online scams. TASS reports animal welfare bill. Dnevnik Desantnika video of chapel. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. Igor Artamonov lifting alert levels. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. TASS video of Prilepin. Bryansk Governor reports civilian injured. Dnevnik Десантника reports massive drone attack on Belgorod. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. Rybar's video on intelligence. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. RUF will leverage occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. RUF will continue to frame Kyiv as unwilling to negotiate for peace. RUF will likely use reports of drone attacks on Ilsky Oil Refinery and Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant to further their narrative of Ukrainian "terrorism." RUF internal corruption investigations (Kursk Governor) will be framed as accountability, to project an image of transparency. RUF will continue to promote social benefits (toll road exemptions, child care) to bolster domestic support. Dmitry Medvedev's new social media style may indicate a shift in engagement tactics. TASS will continue to use narratives of UAF surrenders. Basurin o главном's attempts to discredit Ukrainian aid efforts will continue. RUF will leverage the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev to emphasize the "risks" of service or the lack of support for such units in their broader narrative. RUF will continue to promote domestic economic and social stability (e.g., transport system improvements, education reform). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, consistent with efforts to undermine support. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Dachne and Bessalovka, and claims ~1245 UAF personnel losses, reinforcing MLCOA for exaggerated claims of success. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles for psyops. Rybar posts about Poland closing border with Germany, consistent with highlighting Western disunity. TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen, using strong rhetoric against Western leaders. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, consistent with MLCOA for managing international perceptions. TASS reports Lavrov's statements on peace terms, confirming MLCOA for diplomatic messaging. TASS reports on history not being mandatory on the USE, focusing on domestic issues. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity confirms MLCOA for incitement/disinformation. TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including comments on Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory, confirming MLCOA for maintaining narratives of Ukrainian aggression. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, indicating MLCOA for promoting internal security successes and framing internal dissent as Kyiv-backed sabotage. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly uses the term "man-catchers" for Ukrainian TCCs and encourages civilians to report TCC locations, indicating MLCOA for direct information operations to undermine Ukrainian mobilization. Rybar posts about the Red Sea escalation ("Black Flag over Yemen"), indicating MLCOA for diverting attention to other international conflicts. MoD Russia posts promotional image of medals. Colonelcassad's post about the Lenin bill and WarGonzo's video about Prilepin indicate MLCOA for continued domestic political and cultural propaganda. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians massively rejoice and thank Russia" for TCC strikes, which confirms MLCOA for influencing public sentiment. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement, confirming MLCOA for maximalist demands in negotiations. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks," indicating MLCOA for controlling information flow and fostering a sense of external threat. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin, and Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating MLCOA for domestic legal and anti-corruption narratives. News of Moscow posts photo messages promoting "Centers for Women's Health," indicating MLCOA for domestic social welfare propaganda. ASTRA reports on concert cancellations due to "Z-activists" in Barnaul, indicating MLCOA for controlling internal cultural narratives. TASS posts photos of Putin at BRICS summit, confirming MLCOA for promoting international prestige. TASS reports Iranian President Pezeshkian claiming Israel attempted to assassinate him, confirming MLCOA for diverting attention to other international conflicts. Alex Parker Returns posts a meme-like image, indicating MLCOA for informal information operations. Два майора states that US media is actively discrediting Zelenskyy's regime to justify shifting financial flows away from Ukraine and into new regions. Rybar posts a photo message, asking if "this time they will go," implying an ongoing narrative about negotiations or advances. TASS reports Putin signed a law prohibiting restrictions on installing RuStore on smartphones and other devices, indicating MLCOA for domestic control over digital platforms. Kadyrov_95 posts a video promoting the deployment of volunteer military personnel, confirming MLCOA for patriotic/military propaganda. Colonelcassad posts a video featuring two individuals discussing the conflict, indicating MLCOA for continued narrative control. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a text message warning against helping the enemy, implying RUF attempts to gather intelligence from Ukrainian civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message about the Israeli brand "Zielinski & Rozen" supplying soap to Ukrainian volunteers, implying a controversial connection. Colonelcassad reports Peskov stated information about new DPRK troop contingents in SVO zone resembles an "information hoax," indicating MLCOA for controlling information about foreign military support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts a video implying US Vice President is not liked in San Diego, indicating MLCOA for focusing on internal US political discourse. Басурин о главном posts a message claiming Trump thinks Musk "went crazy," indicating MLCOA for focusing on internal US political discourse. Басурин о главном posts a video showing a drunk Lviv official's statement, confirming MLCOA for using internal Ukrainian issues for propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died, framed as a brutal, unjustified act to discredit UAF. TASS reports UK sanctions against Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry and against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko, implying that RUF will leverage this for propaganda about Western aggression. TASS reports Trump stating the US will introduce 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, effective August 1, indicating MLCOA for using international economic policy for propaganda. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports about the alleged sexual assault of a serviceman's son, which may be leveraged by RUF to sow domestic discontent or discredit Ukrainian society. TASS reports Aeroflot has stabilized its flight schedule across its route network, which may alleviate public concerns about travel disruptions. TASS reports Duma is not planning to introduce a tax on outbound tourism, aimed at maintaining public support and preventing economic grievances. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman in Kalmykia. This could generate negative public sentiment if widely known, but RUF propaganda will likely suppress or reframe it. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran, indicating an MLCOA for Russian information operations to highlight external conflicts. Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing a civilian altercation in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, which may be a domestic distraction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages of an Azerbaijani history textbook, which could be part of a broader RUF disinformation campaign to stir ethnic tensions or demonstrate influence in the South Caucasus. TASS reports smoking rooms will be free at Pulkovo airport, indicating a domestic focus on public amenities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • US Military Aid Concerns for Europe: Operation Z disseminating NYT article claiming Europe fears US will cut off access to military equipment updates. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a White House press briefing discussing a review of arms shipments to Ukraine, which could be framed by RUF as a pause or reduction in aid, reinforcing this narrative. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reward for Ukraine Intelligence: "НгП раZVедка" message about "promised prize" for Kyiv residents providing information. НгП раZVедка reports Kharkiv received its "deserved prize." НгП раZVедка (NgP Razvedka) posts a message indicating the distribution of "prize fund" for information, reinforcing the intelligence gathering propaganda. A new video from НгП раZVедка features a Belarusian "entrepreneur, producer, organizer, and first gentleman" talking about unrelated topics, which is a new content strategy that may be used to diversify propaganda efforts or gain trust from a different audience segment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Middle East Focus: TASS reports Yemeni Houthis claiming rocket strikes on Ben-Gurion airport and Ashkelon power station. Colonelcassad posts video of alleged Houthi missile strike on Israel. Rybar posts a photo message captioned "Black Flag over Yemen." TASS reports Iranian President Pezeshkian claiming Israel attempted to assassinate him. Colonelcassad posts two photo messages about Houthi attacks on a Greek bulk carrier. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran. This signals an increased Russian focus on Middle East tensions as a means of information warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Disinformation/Information Operations: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a person finding a needle in a peach, claiming it was purchased from an Azerbaijani seller. Alex Parker Returns posts a video captioned "Специальная олимпиада по Яндекс-доставке. Быть добру!" showing a Ukrainian tank engaged by drone fire, which is likely a disinformation tactic to mock Ukrainian military capabilities and portray them as inept. Colonelcassad posts a photo message captioned "Interesting proposal," which is a satirical image of a US tariff letter to Kazakhstan. This falls under disinformation/propaganda by mocking US foreign policy. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages of an Azerbaijani history textbook, which could be part of a broader RUF disinformation campaign to stir ethnic tensions or demonstrate influence in the South Caucasus. Alex Parker Returns's post about the death of a French politician and a plastic surgeon, linking them to President Macron and Alstom/General Electric, is a clear disinformation campaign aimed at discrediting Western politicians and institutions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

• UAF:

  • Counter-Narratives: UAF sources actively counter RUF narratives (e.g., child killed, attacking rescuers). Videos showing successful UAF strikes. Butusov Plus video on RUF torture. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of repelled moto-assault. Sternenko/ASTRA reports on "Gerbera" strike. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of drone strike. DeepState video of artillery destruction. Butusov Plus highlights past night drone successes. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on Kyiv drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports Kharkiv casualties. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded. Oleg Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih controlled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video on Shahed impact in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Odesa fatality. ASTRA reports Sumy casualties. ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine photos/videos of Kharkiv aftermath. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Oleg Synegubov's photos of damaged buildings/casualties in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms Odesa destruction. Shtirlits posts on RUF losses. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. DSNS images from Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Odesa fatality despite AD. Butusov Plus provides obituary for Su-34 bombardier. Operatyvnyi ZSU and General Staff of UAF emphasize high number of RUF UAVs neutralized (75/101). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms 75/101 RUF UAVs neutralized. Oleg Synegubov provides video of Kharkiv aftermath. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery, directly countering RUF claims of no damage. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes. Oleg Synegubov reports on Kharkiv explosions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded and destruction from drone attack. Sternenko reports on Zaporizhzhia casualties. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. RBC-Ukraine reports on Kharkiv explosions and casualties. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports SBU preventing a terrorist act in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the attack and damage. General Staff reports daily clashes across front lines. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts video of smoke rising from Kharkiv cityscape and explosions in Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports 6 Shaheds attacked Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, including one with "Shitty Kharkiv" text. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms the significant impact on Kharkiv civilians. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast. Shef Hayabusa posts photos depicting the aftermath of attacks on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports on SSO special forces raid. Oleg Synegubov provided a video update on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms this. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, killing a 19-year-old and injuring six. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. STERNENKO posts about "deficit rusoreza." Басурин о главном posts videos attempting to show Ukrainian civilians "overjoyed" by TCC strikes. Koordynatsijnyy shtab z pytanʹ povodzhennya z viysʹkovopolonenymy (Coordination Staff for POWs) has published multiple photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video highlighting harsh working conditions for Kherson residents. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion in Zhytomyr. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a medical professional discussing the condition of 11 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts of Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins indicates the devastation of conflict. An FPV drone attack on a civilian in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring one, signifies continued civilian impact. Butusov Plus posts a video of a woman expressing distress over her son, an alleged soldier with a disability, being sent to Luhansk and facing severe hardship without communication. RBC-Україна reports Cabinet not appointing director of BEB, indicating transparency regarding internal challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Transparency/Call for Aid: Public calls for donations (21st OMBr drones, Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 1st Mech Bat, 3rd Assault Brigade). Appeals to "send Russians to hell." Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising. "KiberBoroshno" audience engagement. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations. RBC-Ukraine reports Sybiha's call for investment. Sternenko links attacks to fundraising. Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes youth mental health initiative ("Non-Okay, but Honest"). Coordination Staff for POWs in Kharkiv held an event. Butusov Plus posts photo message about Pavel Gubarev (RUF serviceman) reporting on Russian losses. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. РБК-Україна posts a tactical analysis of an image. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts photo messages of wheat fields on fire. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a photo message about the 24th Brigade creating a unit to counter enemy drones. RBC-Україна posts about "Pakunok Shkolyara" (school package) from the Ministry of Social Policy, indicating a focus on social support. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a video of a meeting with the President of the National Council of Switzerland, showcasing continued international diplomatic engagement. President Zelenskyy's statement about covering the funding deficit for drone production and interceptor drones, along with filling Ukrainian production lines and working with partners, demonstrates transparency and calls for continued support. STERNENKO explicitly calls for fundraising for tomorrow's "important collection" for "5 hryvnias," further demonstrating UAF's continued reliance on public support and transparent appeals. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages about volunteer contributions, highlighting public engagement and calls for support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with the caption "How many volunteers went?", focusing on mobilization efforts and public volunteerism. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Highlighting Russian Difficulties: UAF sources highlight Russian airport cancellations, naval issues. Civilian video of crowded Sheremetyevo. Unconfirmed reports of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. RBC-Ukraine on hundreds of flights cancelled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms cancellations. Shef Hayabusa videos of crowded airports. TASS reports airline losses. "Новости Москвы" video on "transport collapse." Operatyvnyi ZSU quotes Trump on aid. RBC-Ukraine graphic "News for this night." Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier. RBC-Ukraine reports 20 billion rubles in airline losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU also reports airline losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery, implying Russian vulnerabilities. Kotsnews reports on Sheremetyevo issues. Sever.Realii warns of ease of civilian drone assembly. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport indicating flight disruptions due to drone threat. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi. TASS video shows flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions lifted. News of Moscow posts photo messages showing network outages for MTS. TASS reports Telegram outages. News of Moscow reports MTS outages. ASTRA posts video claiming First Channel cut out mention of Ukraine from old show. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka. ASTRA reports a gas explosion in a residential building in Saratov Oblast. TASS reports a Moscow-Antalya flight returning due to possible malfunction. Север.Реалии reports internet worsening and EW installation in Leningrad Oblast. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report the suicide of former Minister of Transport Roman Starovoyt. Оперативний ЗСУ reports about another death in the Russian Ministry of Transport of Deputy Head of the Land Fund Department, Andrey Korneichuk. Alex Parker Returns and ASTRA also confirm this. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message captioned "Did they conjure something up in the Ministry of Transport?". ASTRA reports a military court sentenced former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Khalil Arslanov, to 17 years. TASS reports one person died and three were injured in an explosion in a lounge bar in Ryazan. ASTRA reports a large warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg (3500 sqm) with partial roof collapse, indicating highlighting Russian domestic issues. Новости Москвы reports that the collapse at Sheremetyevo was caused by a lack of gangways and towing teams. Дневник Десантника posts a video showing what it claims is the downing of a Russian missile by Ukrainian forces, highlighting RUF setbacks in missile capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • International Support Publicity: RBC-Ukraine on "secret request" for German weapons. Bild published list. RBC-Ukraine on Sybiha's call for investment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights quotes NATO SecGen Ruttte. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will meet Zelenskyy in Rome. Operation Z shares articles confirming Ukraine's German wish list. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine reports on candidates for US Ambassador. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Trump. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Kotsnews reports on "Kyiv's wish list" for Berlin. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a video of a meeting with the President of the National Council of Switzerland, showcasing continued international diplomatic engagement. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted discussions with international partners on military aid and support for Ukraine's defense industry. РБК-Україна reports that by the end of the year, all clusters for Ukraine's accession to the EU should be opened, according to Stefanishyna, indicating continued political support for Ukraine's European integration. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Economic Competition Narrative: Operatyvnyi ZSU on China's ambition to control global manufacturing. Two Mayors reports on China expanding its presence in high-tech arms markets. Rybar post "America's Party" with Elon Musk illustration. Alex Parker Returns posts a map comparing global trade dominance, implying EU/US decline relative to China. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Positive National Imagery: Operatyvnyi ZSU video of Dnipro river. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos about daily moments of silence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video highlights youth initiatives. UAF General Staff providing photo messages of new recruits training. RBC-Ukraine reports on SSO special forces raid. Oleg Synegubov provides a video update on Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of an aerial view of aircraft formation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by a significant explosion. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video highlighting the harsh conditions for civilians in Kherson. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photo messages about inter-regional cooperation. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video showing military personnel preparing and distributing sushi. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts photos of a commemorative coin for "Vampire" UAVs. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing the restoration of a damaged nine-story building. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video about high school students' exam results. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posted photo messages celebrating a European wrestling champion, enhancing positive national imagery. STERNENKO reported Zelenskyy's evening address, noting three fallen warriors to be posthumously awarded Hero of Ukraine, demonstrating national recognition for sacrifice. RBC-Ukraine posts about the awarding of three fallen warriors with Hero of Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Honoring Fallen Defenders: KMVA posts photos honoring fallen defenders. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts photos of deceased RUF officers. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an FPV drone operator killing a pelican. STERNENKO reported Zelenskyy's evening address, noting three fallen warriors to be posthumously awarded Hero of Ukraine, honoring their sacrifice. RBC-Ukraine posts about the awarding of three fallen warriors with Hero of Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • External Mobilization Efforts: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports GUR intelligence about Russian troops heading to Armenia for reinforcement. DeepState also posts photo messages (scanned telegrams) confirming this. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Internal Security Warnings: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a text message warning against helping the enemy. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts photo messages of wheat fields on fire. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a Ukrainian military information graphic about the 12th Army Corps. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Anti-Corruption Efforts: RBC-Україна reports Cabinet not appointing director of BEB, indicating scrutiny of appointments. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: Civilian casualties and destruction cause fear/distress. Public celebrations and aid appeals indicate resilience/support for military. Internal debate on conscription methods. Oleg Vilkul's briefing aims to reassure public. Nikolaevskiy Vanek's successful fundraiser demonstrates strong public engagement. RBC-Ukraine reports rising death toll in Bitytsia. Alerts in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa cause fear. New alerts in Kyiv cause anxiety. Increasing casualties in Kharkiv (82 injured) cause significant fear/distress. Two men wounded in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih controlled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video on Shahed impact in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Odesa fatality. ASTRA reports Sumy casualties. ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine photos/videos of Kharkiv aftermath. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Oleg Synegubov's photos of damaged buildings/casualties in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms Odesa destruction. Shtirlits posts on RUF losses. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. DSNS images from Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Odesa fatality despite AD. Butusov Plus provides obituary for Su-34 bombardier. Operatyvnyi ZSU and General Staff of UAF emphasize high number of RUF UAVs neutralized (75/101). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms 75/101 RUF UAVs neutralized. Oleg Synegubov provides video of Kharkiv aftermath. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes. Oleg Synegubov reports on Kharkiv explosions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded and destruction from drone attack. Sternenko reports on Zaporizhzhia casualties. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. RBC-Ukraine reports on Kharkiv explosions and casualties. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports SBU preventing a terrorist act in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the attack and damage. General Staff reports daily clashes across front lines. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts video of smoke rising from Kharkiv cityscape and explosions in Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports 6 Shaheds attacked Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, including one with "Shitty Kharkiv" text. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms the significant impact on Kharkiv civilians. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast. Shef Hayabusa posts photos depicting the aftermath of attacks on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports on SSO special forces raid. Oleg Synegubov provided a video update on Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms this. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an multi-story building. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive. Mash na Donbashe reports RUF struck a residential area in Vasylivka, killing a 19-year-old and injuring six. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports SBU and National Police detained several organizers of "draft dodging schemes." Оперативний ЗСУ reports two servicemen injured at Zaporizhzhia TCC. STERNENKO posts about "deficit rusoreza." Басурин о главном posts videos attempting to show Ukrainian civilians "overjoyed" by TCC strikes. Koordynatsijnyy shtab z pytanʹ povodzhennya z viysʹkovopolonenymy (Coordination Staff for POWs) has published multiple photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video highlighting harsh working conditions for Kherson residents. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an explosion in Zhytomyr. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a medical professional discussing the condition of 11 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports explosions in two districts of Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with crosses on graves in ruined yards, highlighting the devastation of conflict. An FPV drone attack on a civilian in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring one, signifies a setback in civilian protection. Butusov Plus posts a video of a woman expressing distress over her son, an alleged soldier with a disability, being sent to Luhansk and facing severe hardship without communication. RBC-Україна reports Cabinet not appointing director of BEB, indicating transparency regarding internal challenges. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages with the caption "How many volunteers went?", suggesting public interest and potential anxiety around mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Public: Putin's rhetoric/awards aim to consolidate support. Domestic security incidents and airport disruptions could cause unease. ASTRA reports widespread flight cancellations. TASS reports 20 billion rubles in airline damages. Internal criticism of Gudkov's death. ASTRA reports civilian violence (Novosibirsk). Butusov Plus video alleges torture/abuse. Trump's tariffs (economic anxiety). Alex Parker Returns video "hunting Tajiks." TASS reports additional rail cars. RBC-Ukraine reports hundreds of flights cancelled. News of Moscow channel's video (domestic focus). Shef Hayabusa videos of crowded airports. Alex Parker Returns video/photo on "hunting Tajiks." ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for military equipment. Colonelcassad screenshot "truth starts to come out!" Alex Parker Returns photo message "They started to guess something." Operation Z on "Azov Nazis" in Germany. TASS reports bill for children. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery from "Electroautomatics." TASS reports online scams. "Новости Москвы" highlights "transport collapse." TASS reports animal welfare bill. Dnevnik Desantnika video of chapel. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. Igor Artamonov lifting alert levels. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. TASS video of Prilepin. Bryansk Governor reports civilian injured. Dnevnik Десантника reports massive drone attack on Belgorod. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. Rybar's video on intelligence. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. RUF will leverage occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. RUF will continue to frame Kyiv as unwilling to negotiate for peace. RUF will likely use reports of drone attacks on Ilsky Oil Refinery and Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant to further their narrative of Ukrainian "terrorism." RUF internal corruption investigations (Kursk Governor) will be framed as accountability, to project an image of transparency. RUF will continue to promote social benefits (toll road exemptions, child care) to bolster domestic support. Dmitry Medvedev's new social media style may indicate a shift in engagement tactics. TASS will continue to use narratives of UAF surrenders. Basurin o главном's attempts to discredit Ukrainian aid efforts will continue. RUF will leverage the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev to emphasize the "risks" of service or the lack of support for such units in their broader narrative. RUF will continue to promote domestic economic and social stability (e.g., transport system improvements, education reform). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, consistent with efforts to undermine support. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Dachne and Bessalovka, and claims ~1245 UAF personnel losses, reinforcing MLCOA for exaggerated claims of success. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles for psyops. Rybar posts about Poland closing border with Germany, consistent with highlighting Western disunity. TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen, using strong rhetoric against Western leaders. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, consistent with MLCOA for managing international perceptions. TASS reports Lavrov's statements on peace terms, confirming MLCOA for diplomatic messaging. TASS reports on history not being mandatory on the USE, focusing on domestic issues. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity confirms MLCOA for incitement/disinformation. TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including comments on Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory, confirming MLCOA for maintaining narratives of Ukrainian aggression. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, indicating MLCOA for promoting internal security successes and framing internal dissent as Kyiv-backed sabotage. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly uses the term "man-catchers" for Ukrainian TCCs and encourages civilians to report TCC locations, indicating MLCOA for direct information operations to undermine Ukrainian mobilization. Rybar posts about the Red Sea escalation ("Black Flag over Yemen"), indicating MLCOA for diverting attention to other international conflicts. MoD Russia posts promotional image of medals. Colonelcassad's post about the Lenin bill and WarGonzo's video about Prilepin indicate MLCOA for continued domestic political and cultural propaganda. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts a photo message claiming "Ukrainians massively rejoice and thank Russia" for TCC strikes, which confirms MLCOA for influencing public sentiment. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement, confirming MLCOA for maximalist demands in negotiations. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks," indicating MLCOA for controlling information flow and fostering a sense of external threat. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin, and Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating MLCOA for domestic legal and anti-corruption narratives. News of Moscow posts photo messages promoting "Centers for Women's Health," indicating MLCOA for domestic social welfare propaganda. ASTRA reports on concert cancellations due to "Z-activists" in Barnaul, indicating MLCOA for controlling internal cultural narratives. TASS posts photos of Putin at BRICS summit, confirming MLCOA for promoting international prestige. TASS reports Iranian President Pezeshkian claiming Israel attempted to assassinate him, confirming MLCOA for diverting attention to other international conflicts. Alex Parker Returns posts a meme-like image, indicating MLCOA for informal information operations. Два майора states that US media is actively discrediting Zelenskyy's regime to justify shifting financial flows away from Ukraine and into new regions. Rybar posts a photo message, asking if "this time they will go," implying an ongoing narrative about negotiations or advances. TASS reports Putin signed a law prohibiting restrictions on installing RuStore on smartphones and other devices, indicating MLCOA for domestic control over digital platforms. Kadyrov_95 posts a video promoting the deployment of volunteer military personnel, confirming MLCOA for patriotic/military propaganda. Colonelcassad posts a video featuring two individuals discussing the conflict, indicating MLCOA for continued narrative control. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a text message warning against helping the enemy, implying RUF attempts to gather intelligence from Ukrainian civilians. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message about the Israeli brand "Zielinski & Rozen" supplying soap to Ukrainian volunteers, implying a controversial connection. Colonelcassad reports Peskov stated information about new DPRK troop contingents in SVO zone resembles an "information hoax," indicating MLCOA for controlling information about foreign military support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts a video implying US Vice President is not liked in San Diego, indicating MLCOA for focusing on internal US political discourse. Басурин о главном posts a message claiming Trump thinks Musk "went crazy," indicating MLCOA for focusing on internal US political discourse. Басурин о главном posts a video showing a drunk Lviv official's statement, confirming MLCOA for using internal Ukrainian issues for propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming a UAF TCC incident in Lutsk where a volunteer died, framed as a brutal, unjustified act to discredit UAF. TASS reports UK sanctions against Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry and against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko, implying that RUF will leverage this for propaganda about Western aggression. TASS reports Trump stating the US will introduce 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, effective August 1, indicating MLCOA for using international economic policy for propaganda. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports about the alleged sexual assault of a serviceman's son, which may be leveraged by RUF to sow domestic discontent or discredit Ukrainian society. TASS reports Aeroflot has stabilized its flight schedule across its route network, which may alleviate public concerns about travel disruptions. TASS reports Duma is not planning to introduce a tax on outbound tourism, aimed at maintaining public support and preventing economic grievances. ASTRA reports a Russian serviceman raped a woman in Kalmykia. This could generate negative public sentiment if widely known, but RUF propaganda will likely suppress or reframe it. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran, indicating an MLCOA for Russian information operations to highlight external conflicts. Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing a civilian altercation in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, which may be a domestic distraction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages of an Azerbaijani history textbook, which could be part of a broader RUF disinformation campaign to stir ethnic tensions or demonstrate influence in the South Caucasus. TASS reports smoking rooms will be free at Pulkovo airport, indicating a domestic focus on public amenities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Texas: ASTRA reports 82 killed (28 children) due to flooding in Texas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• International Support: Continued military aid from partners (Germany). EU implementing Ukrainian drone experience. Bild published list of German weapons. RBC-Ukraine on Sybiha's call for investment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights quotes NATO SecGen Ruttte. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will meet Zelenskyy in Rome. Operation Z shares articles confirming Ukraine's German wish list. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine reports on candidates for US Ambassador. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Trump. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply. RBC-Ukraine reports that SSO fighters conducted a lightning raid on an enemy position near the border with the Russian Federation. Sternenko posts video showing a reconnaissance drone (Merlin-VR). Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine. Shef Hayabusa posts a video unboxing a "Chaika-M" drone. Kotsnews reports on "Kyiv's wish list" for Berlin. Zelenskiy / Official reports a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a video of a meeting with the President of the National Council of Switzerland, showcasing continued international diplomatic engagement. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted discussions with international partners on military aid and support for Ukraine's defense industry. РБК-Україна reports that by the end of the year, all clusters for Ukraine's accession to the EU should be opened, according to Stefanishyna, indicating continued political support for Ukraine's European integration. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.56): BRICS leaders express hope for "sustainable peaceful settlement" in Ukraine, condemn unilateral sanctions and attacks on Russian infrastructure. Lavrov's meetings with Brazilian and Iranian FMs. TASS reports Trump's tariffs for BRICS-supporting countries. Colonelcassad video of Russian-Iranian negotiations. TASS reports Trump on Gaza ceasefire. RDIF head on "Global South." TASS reports vote of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about tariffs. Poddubny reports Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" toward negotiations. Voenkor Kotenok reports Israel announced "Black Flag" operation against Houthis. TASS reports Yemeni Houthis claiming rocket strikes on Ben-Gurion airport and Ashkelon power station. Rybar reports Poland closing border with Germany. TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen. Basurin o главном discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group. TASS posts Medvedev's statement that BRICS is gaining authority amidst Trump's tariff threats, indicating an effort to highlight the growing geopolitical influence of BRICS in opposition to US economic policies. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries. TASS reports Lavrov stating the terms for a peace agreement. TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov's statement about "demilitarization" as peace terms. Rybar posts a photo message captioned "Black Flag over Yemen." Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemezet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine. Janus Putkonen (Finnish source, often pro-Russian) states that "transatlanticists" have eagerly awaited US occupation of Finland. TASS reports Swedish diplomat recalled from Moscow. TASS posts photos of Putin at BRICS summit. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterates Lavrov's statements on territorial integrity. TASS reports Iranian President Pezeshkian claimed Israel attempted to assassinate him. Два майора posts a photo message claiming US media is discrediting Zelenskyy's regime. Zelenskiy / Official reports on a phone call with UK PM Keir Starmer. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskyy will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 9. Рыбарь posts a video on Russian-Kyrgyz relations. TASS reports Trump stating the US will introduce 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, effective August 1, which has international economic implications. ASTRA reports Russia is ready to provide uranium enrichment for Iran's peaceful nuclear program, strengthening bilateral ties. Военкор Котенок reports Axios claims Tel Aviv is preparing for new strikes on Iran, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions that may garner international attention away from Ukraine. TASS reports Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated Trump's threats to impose tariffs on BRICS partners are irresponsible. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Initiative: Proposal by [Actor] for [Action] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.16): India to host BRICS summit in 2026. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Geopolitical Shift: Change in [Type of Support] from [Country] to [Recipient] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.08): Israeli Ambassador Brodsky implies potential reduction in Iranian support for Russia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• US Political Discourse on Ukraine: TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. RBC-Ukraine video asks why Trump not helping Ukraine like Israel. Operation Z disseminating NYT article on Europe fearing US military equipment updates. RBC-Ukraine on Trump's reaction to Musk. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about 10% trade tariffs. RBC-Ukraine reports on US political dynamics regarding a "third party" and Elon Musk's role. Rybar post on "America's Party" with Elon Musk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a White House press briefing where a spokesperson discusses a review of arms shipments to Ukraine, contributing to the narrative of potential US aid shifts. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Trump. TASS reports the US Department of Justice and FBI found no evidence of Epstein blackmailing influential figures. Два майора posts a photo message claiming US media is discrediting Zelenskyy's regime. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts a video implying US Vice President is not liked in San Diego. Басурин о главном posts a message claiming Trump thinks Musk "went crazy." TASS reports Trump stating the US will introduce 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, effective August 1, indicating shifts in US economic policy that could impact international relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Eastern Axis: RUF will intensify efforts to secure Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar and establish bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire against UAF. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat in Donetsk (thermal drones). KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Continued artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Rybar will likely continue to produce operational maps for the eastern front. General Staff reports continued clashes around Chasiv Yar. KABs on Donetsk Oblast indicate continued aerial bombardment in next 1-12 hours. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RUF strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, suggesting continued combat operations impacting civilian areas in the next 1-12 hours. WarGonzo posts a video showing a significant explosion in an urban environment, indicating high-impact strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Poddubny posts drone video of a strike near Karl Marx settlement, South Donetsk direction, confirming continued localized strikes in the next 1-12 hours. MoD Russia posts video confirming continuous pressure on the enemy in Krasnoarmeysk direction, indicating persistent offensive operations in the next 1-12 hours. Colonelcassad posts video showing combat in Donbas, indicating continued operations in the next 1-12 hours. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing an aerial view of a building (possibly a school) hit by an explosion, indicating MLCOA for continued precision strikes against structures. Operation Z posts a photo message claiming Russia created a "bag" around Ukrainian forces near Kostiantynivka, indicating MLCOA for continued encirclement efforts. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts drone footage of mortar fire, captioned "Уничтожение миномета и ПВД ВСУ в районе Полтавки," indicating MLCOA for continued targeted strikes against UAF positions and equipment in the next 1-12 hours. Colonelcassad posts a photo message showing a fundraising effort for "stormtroopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," indicating MLCOA for continued focused operations in this sector. Воин DV posts a video showing a "routine FAB strike" on the enemy in Temirovka, indicating MLCOA for continued use of glide bombs. MoD Russia posts video showing assault detachments of Vostok Group of Forces continuing to mop up liberated settlements in South Donetsk direction, indicating continued offensive operations and consolidation. Butusov Plus's image of Vuhledar with graves and ruins suggests continued destructive tactics by RUF in occupied areas. Rybar reports on "heavy fighting in Zaoskolye," indicating a continued MLCOA for intense combat in the eastern sector in the next 1-12 hours. Операция Z posts video (Russian source) claiming fierce battles near Pokrovsk, with RUF 'Otvazhnye' units destroying tanks, NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery, reinforcing MLCOA for continued high-intensity mechanized combat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "Double-purpose strikes," implying continued RUF attacks with civilian impact. Colonelcassad reports RF AF entered Novoekonomicheskoe and Nikolaevka in Mirnograd direction, with maps provided by him, indicating continued localized advances. Colonelcassad provides a situation update on the South-Donetsk direction, indicating continued MLCOA for offensive operations there. Rybar posts an "итоги 27 недели" (results of week 27) video, indicating a continued MLCOA for comprehensive analysis and reporting. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts videos and photo messages of "Otvazhnye" armored groups storming Novoekonomicheskoe, consistent with MLCOA for continued armored pushes in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad reports new Russian army advancement in the south of DNR, indicating continued localized ground advances. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Northern Axis: RUF will maintain high-intensity fixing operations around Vovchansk and Lyptsi (glide bombs, localized infantry probes). Expect continued Shahed UAV attacks on Kharkiv. RUF SpN units (Anvar) to conduct reconnaissance/strike missions in border areas. Efforts to encircle Kupyansk focusing on roads. Continue to target UAF transport. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov's photos support MLCOA of continued attacks on northern urban centers. DSNS images reinforce expectation of continued attacks on residential areas. Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv; Mayor Terekhov confirms multiple impacts in residential areas, indicating continued direct targeting of Kharkiv urban centers by drones. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits and 7-11 injured, indicating continued significant impact. General Staff reports clashes in South Slobozhansky direction, indicating ongoing pressure. Air Force reports missile threat on Sumy, indicating continued ballistic threat. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, indicating continued MLCOA for concentrated drone attacks. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video reinforces continued drone attacks with casualties. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, reinforcing MLCOA of continued urban targeting. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, requiring immediate medical response in next 1-6 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, requiring continued emergency response in next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa's photos confirm ongoing damage. Oleg Synegubov provided a video update on the operational situation in Kharkiv, indicating ongoing response. RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video of explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area and Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Русской Весны) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv confirm MLCOA for continued drone strikes on urban areas. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly indicates MLCOA for continued targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv, leveraging local intelligence. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment, confirming MLCOA for RUF reconnaissance and targeting of UAF formations in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating continued strikes on critical infrastructure in the next 1-12 hours. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued offensive actions in the next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, indicating continued strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, indicating urgent medical response will continue in the next 1-6 hours. OTU "Kharkiv" posts drone video of enemy infantry attempting to assault and secure forested areas on the Kupyansk direction, confirming continued localized offensive operations. НгП раZVедка reports Kharkiv received its "deserved prize." Басурин о главном posts a video showing a smoke plume over Kharkiv, indicating continued strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Дневник Десантника posts a photo message captioned "Тем временем в хохлостане…" which, despite the denial, indicates continued focus on the Kharkiv axis. Военкор Котенок posts two videos captioned "Охота на автомобильную технику ВСУ в районе Купянска," confirming continued RUF drone surveillance and targeting against UAF vehicles in the Kupyansk area in the next 1-12 hours. RBK-Ukraina reports 71 injured in Kharkiv, indicating continued high casualty attacks. Colonelcassad reports assault groups entered Varachino in Sumy Oblast, indicating MLCOA for continued localized ground advances. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФАЙТS posts drone footage of engagements against RUF forces near Hlyboka, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF attempts to advance. STERNENKO reports Russians continue assault actions in Vovchansk direction. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapons employment for Kharkiv Oblast in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Dnevnik Desantnika posted a photo message of the Kupyansk direction, reinforcing expectations of continued RUF pressure in this sector in the next 1-12 hours.
• Sumy Direction: RUF will likely continue to build up forces and conduct shaping operations (KAB/KAR strikes, localized ground actions) to stretch UAF resources. RUF MoD will continue to claim destruction of UAF targets. Active UAF drone operations will persist. Two Mayors report explosions. RUF will attempt to exploit perceived UAF readiness issues. Claims of UAF redeployment to Sumy as justification for escalation. RUF UAV activity from Sumy into Poltava will continue. Dnevnik Desantnika's claim of UAF assault group redeployment. Expect continued RUF attacks on civilian infrastructure. WarGonzo tactical map for Sumy. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki. Air Force reports high-speed targets and missiles on Sumy, indicating continued ballistic threat. General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults in Sumy direction, suggesting continued RUF probes. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF, indicating MLCOA for continued localized advances. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, indicating MLCOA for continued attacks on civilian targets. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms localized advances in Sumy. MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka, indicating MLCOA for continued localized territorial gains. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating MLCOA for continued strikes on critical infrastructure. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued offensive actions in the next 1-12 hours. TASS reports approximately 5 km of the Russian state border at the junction with Sumy Oblast came under Russian army control after the liberation of Bessalovka, confirming MLCOA for territorial gains. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued aerial strikes in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. President Zelenskyy's Staff meeting highlighted Sumy region and actions on Russian territory in border areas of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, confirming continued UAF assessment of RUF intent in these areas. Dva Mayora posts a video showing the downing of a missile over Sumy, suggesting continued MLCOA for missile attacks in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Offensive: Operation Z reports that a Ukrainian battalion commander from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stated that Russian forces have launched a massive offensive along the entire front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates sustained offensive operations in this sector, with likely continued localized ground attacks, increased drone usage, and efforts to target UAF logistical routes and high ground, expected to continue for the next 24-72 hours. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic weapon employment from the eastern direction for Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the next 1-12 hours. Воин DV posts a video showing the daily work of UAV operators of the 35th Army in destroying enemy temporary deployment points (PVD) and strongholds in the Huliaipole direction, indicating MLCOA for continued RUF drone and artillery strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RUF Strategic Intentions: Confirmation of whether increased activity in Sumy represents a genuine new offensive axis or a fixing operation to draw UAF reserves. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• "Oreshnik" Ballistic Missile: Verification of the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure, its capabilities, and RUF's timeline for operational deployment. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Internal Corruption: Deeper understanding of the scope and impact of high-level corruption (e.g., Starovoyt's death, Arslanov's conviction, Strigunov's arrest, Korneichuk's death) on RUF logistical capabilities, morale, and long-term sustainment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Impact of UK Sanctions: Detailed assessment of the impact of recent UK sanctions on the Russian Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry and against Chief of RCBD Troops Rtishchev and his deputy Marchenko on RUF CBRN capabilities and overall military-industrial complex. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Manpower Sources: Detailed assessment of the implications of Putin's decree allowing stateless persons to serve in the Russian army by contract on RUF's long-term manpower sustainment and potential for exploitation. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Offensive Scale: Determine the precise scale, units involved, and depth of the new RUF offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to accurately assess its strategic significance and potential for breakthrough. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• Unconventional Air Defense: Evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of Ukraine's reported plan to use volunteer formations with light aircraft for Shahed interception. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Russian Social Issues: Assess the impact of incidents like the alleged sexual assault at a children's camp, the rape reported in Kalmykia, and the sexual assault reported in Kemerovo Oblast on Russian military morale, conscription efforts, and public trust in authorities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Lone Infantry Attack TTPs: Further intelligence collection is required to understand the tactical purpose (reconnaissance-in-force, diversion, penal battalion, etc.) and scale of RUF's new tactic involving lone, lightly equipped infantry assaults. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• Iran Strike Preparation: Confirm the veracity and immediate implications of Axios's claim regarding Tel Aviv's preparations for strikes on Iran. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• POW Interrogation Tactics: Analyze the content and format of newly released POW interrogation videos (e.g., "Ask the Prisoner of War") to determine RUF's evolving psychological operations tactics and their effectiveness in undermining Ukrainian morale or gathering intelligence. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• Russian Internal Military Affairs: Further information regarding "Army purification" (Rybar article) is needed to understand whether this indicates a broader internal military reform, purges, or ongoing disciplinary actions within RUF. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Azerbaijani History Textbook Narrative: Investigate the specific content of the Azerbaijani history textbook images (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) to determine if they relate to regional geopolitical narratives or historical claims that could impact Russian foreign policy or regional stability. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• Azerbaijan Judicial Action against Sputnik Staff: Understand the underlying reasons and potential broader implications of the arrest and continued detention of Sputnik Azerbaijan staff in Baku for RUF's foreign media operations and diplomatic relations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
• Ukrainian Government Appointments: Understand the reasons behind the Ukrainian Cabinet's decision not to appoint the director of BEB, and its potential impact on governance and anti-corruption efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Ukrainian Political Friction: Understand the full scope and impact of the reported "lie by Klitschko's team" by KMVA on Kyiv's governance, civilian morale, and overall war effort. (LOW CONFIDENCE).

---

7. COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• ISR (IMINT/SIGINT): High-resolution satellite imagery and SIGINT collection on RUF force concentrations and movements in Sumy Oblast to determine offensive preparations. Prioritize ISR on areas around Kupyansk and the entire Zaporizhzhia front line. (URGENT)
• ISR (HUMINT/OSINT): Collect information on RUF internal dynamics, particularly the impact of recent high-level arrests and deaths (Starovoyt, Arslanov, Strigunov, Korneichuk), and incidents of military misconduct (Kalmykia rape, Kemerovo Oblast sexual assault) on command cohesion and logistics. Monitor Russian social media for sentiment shifts and internal dissent (e.g., Igor Strelkov's channels). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• ISR (SIGINT/ELINT): Characterize new RUF EW systems and their operational areas, particularly in southern and eastern sectors, to inform counter-EW TTPs. (URGENT)
• ISR (IMINT/HUMINT): Verify claims of "Gerbera" decoy drone conversion to strike role and assess its proliferation within RUF. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• ISR (IMINT/SIGINT): Continued monitoring of RUF naval and air activity in the Black Sea and Crimea for ballistic missile launches and Shahed UAV deployment. (CONTINUOUS)
• OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor RUF media and social media for further details and imagery regarding the warehouse fire in Yekaterinburg to determine potential military/economic impact. (ROUTINE)
• HUMINT/OSINT): Collect and cross-verify information from Russian sources regarding the protest by relatives of Colombian mercenaries to understand the extent of foreign fighter involvement and RUF information operations. (ROUTINE)
• ISR (IMINT/HUMINT): Monitor Russian military bases in Armenia for troop movements and reinforcement to confirm RUF intentions in the Caucasus. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• OSINT/HUMINT: Collect further details on Ukraine's proposed volunteer air defense formations using light aircraft, including training, equipment, and proposed operational areas, to assess feasibility and effectiveness. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• HUMINT/OSINT): Collect and analyze RUF battlefield reports and captured materials for specific TTPs related to lone infantry assaults, their objectives, and the types of personnel involved. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor international news and intelligence sources for further confirmation and details on Tel Aviv's alleged preparations for strikes on Iran, and its potential impact on regional stability. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• OSINT/HUMINT): Monitor Russian and Ukrainian media for the dissemination and reception of POW interrogation videos, and analyze their impact on military and civilian morale. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor Russian military and political discourse for further information on "Army purification" to assess its nature and potential impact on force structure and morale. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
• OSINT/HUMINT: Analyze the content and context of the Azerbaijani history textbook messages to identify any implications for regional stability or Russian influence operations. (ROUTINE).
• HUMINT/OSINT: Gather information from open sources and human intelligence regarding the arrest and detention of Sputnik Azerbaijan staff in Baku to understand the implications for RUF media operations and diplomatic relations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
• OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor official Ukrainian government announcements and news reports for updates on the appointment of the BEB director and assess the impact of this decision on the government's anti-corruption agenda and administrative efficiency. (ROUTINE).
• OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor KMVA and Kyiv local media for further details on the "Klitschko lie" controversy and its broader implications for public trust and local governance. (ROUTINE).
• OSINT/HUMINT: Monitor RUF and EU media for details on the new EU sanctions against Russia to assess their scope and potential impact on the Russian economy and military-industrial complex. (HIGH PRIORITY).

---

8. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Reinforce Kharkiv Air Defense: Given the escalating Shahed attacks and high civilian casualties (now 82 injured), immediately allocate additional mobile air defense assets (e.g., Gepard, Avenger, MANPADS teams) to Kharkiv city and its immediate approaches. Prioritize night-time coverage.

   • Tactical Impact: Mitigate civilian casualties, reduce damage to critical infrastructure, preserve public morale, and deny RUF the ability to conduct terror strikes with impunity.
   • Timeline: Immediate (within 6-12 hours).

2. Bolster Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia Defenses: With RUF explicit intent to encircle Kupyansk and the confirmed "massive offensive" in Zaporizhzhia, reinforce UAF units holding key road networks and critical terrain in both areas. Prioritize anti-armor assets (ATGM, FPV drones) and engineer support for defensive fortification.

   • Tactical Impact: Prevent encirclement, maintain critical supply lines, and inflict heavy attrition on advancing RUF forces in both key operational sectors.
   • Timeline: Immediate (within 12-24 hours).

3. Counter TCC Targeting: Implement enhanced physical and electronic security measures for all Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs), particularly in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava. This should include reinforced perimeters, increased surveillance (CCTV, drone patrols), and active EW countermeasures to disrupt incoming drones. Accelerate the implementation of plans for TCC dispersal and remote service provision to reduce their vulnerability and ensure continuity of mobilization.

   • Tactical Impact: Protect personnel and infrastructure crucial for mobilization, maintain operational continuity of recruitment efforts, and reduce RUF's psychological impact on the conscription process.
   • Timeline: Urgent (within 24-48 hours).

4. Strengthen Counter-Corruption in Military Supply: Expedite investigations into alleged corruption within the Ministry of Defense (e.g., unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers). Implement robust quality control checks for all incoming military supplies, especially from domestic contractors.

   • Tactical Impact: Ensure frontline units receive effective and reliable equipment, enhance troop morale by demonstrating accountability, and prevent financial losses that could otherwise be used for defense.
   • Timeline: Ongoing, with immediate internal audits.

5. Capitalize on RUF Internal Instability: Prepare information operations campaigns highlighting the alleged high-level corruption, suspicious deaths, military misconduct (e.g., Kalmykia rape, alleged sexual assault at children's camp, Kemerovo Oblast sexual assault), and distressing social issues within Russia. This can be used to sow doubt about RUF leadership, integrity, and the benefits of military service within Russia.

   • Tactical Impact: Degrade RUF morale, undermine public trust in Russian state institutions, and potentially contribute to recruitment challenges for RUF.
   • Timeline: Within 24-48 hours (develop and disseminate narratives).

6. Assess and Integrate Unconventional Air Defense: Conduct a rapid feasibility study and, if viable, prioritize resources to integrate and train volunteer territorial community formations for light aircraft-based Shahed interception.

   • Tactical Impact: Supplement existing air defense capabilities against persistent Shahed threats, potentially freeing up more advanced systems for high-value targets, and bolster local resilience.
   • Timeline: Immediate assessment, potential implementation within 1-2 weeks.

7. Develop Counter-Tactics for Lone Infantry Assaults: Analyze recent reports of RUF employing lone, lightly equipped infantry. Develop and disseminate immediate counter-tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) for frontline units to effectively neutralize these threats, identify their purpose, and prevent them from compromising defensive positions or intelligence gathering.

   • Tactical Impact: Reduce UAF casualties from unexpected, small-scale probes, prevent information leakage, and maintain tactical advantage on the front lines.
   • Timeline: Immediate (within 12-24 hours).

8. Counter RUF POW Exploitation: Develop and disseminate pre-capture training and messaging for UAF personnel to mitigate the effectiveness of RUF POW exploitation. Prepare counter-narratives and proactive messaging to discredit RUF-produced POW videos, highlighting their propaganda nature and potential for coercion.

   • Tactical Impact: Protect UAF personnel from psychological manipulation in captivity, maintain unit cohesion, and prevent degradation of public trust.
   • Timeline: Immediate (within 24 hours) for internal training and 48-72 hours for public counter-messaging.