Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 071107Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alert due to ballistic threat previously lifted. UAV debris damaged non-residential building in Desnianskyi district and vehicle/water pipe in Solomianskyi district; no fire or casualties. Damaged heating main impacts ~500 buildings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Agricultural enterprise in Znamyanka Community damaged by RUF attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs impacted Kharkiv city (Shevchenkivskyi and Slobidskyi districts), causing fire and significant casualties (27 injured, including 3 children). Glide bombs (KABs) continue against Kharkiv city and 13 settlements. RUF forces attacked emergency responders. RUF claims liberation of Sobolivka and attempting to cut UAF logistics near Kupyansk for encirclement. RUF aviation airstrikes across Vovchansk and Chuhuiv. Civilian vehicle attacked by FPV drone, child killed. UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Mine detonations remain a civilian threat. RUF sources claim successful "Anvar" SpN unit operations and battle for Kupyansk on roads for encirclement. Video confirmed Shahed drone impact in residential area. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. New video message from Oleg Synegubov shows aftermath of morning attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, confirming extensive damage to residential buildings and continued casualties. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Explosions heard in Kharkiv, confirmed by Oleg Synegubov (Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration) and Mayor Terekhov (3 impacts in Kholodnohirskyi district, likely residential areas). Explosions continue. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful downing of UAVs over Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 direct hits on Kharkiv. Terekhov reports a woman is seriously injured. Oleg Synegubov now reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. UPDATED: Oleg Synegubov reports the number of injured in the latest attack on Kharkiv has risen to 7. Mayor Terekhov confirms a direct hit by an enemy combat drone on a two-story residential building, with one person potentially under the rubble. Oleg Synegubov later updated the number of injured to 11. Colonelcassad reports up to 10 "Geranium" (Shahed) impacts in Kharkiv this morning with "very sluggish" RUF AD response. Alex Parker Returns also reports "Geranium" attacks on Kharkiv, showing smoke plumes. Voenkor Kotenok reports "more than 10 hits" from "Geraniums" in Kharkiv this morning. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts video of smoke rising from Kharkiv cityscape, indicating explosion or fire. Other Operatsiya Z videos show an aerial explosion (missile/artillery strike) and an aerial object (drone/missile) over Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Dva Mayora posts videos of street scenes and an explosion in Kharkiv, with one video containing Ukrainian text "Shitty Kharkiv." Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video of 6 drones attacking Kharkiv simultaneously, with explosions, many casualties, and destruction. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the number of injured in the latest attack on Kharkiv has risen to 16, citing Mayor Terekhov. Oleg Synegubov confirms the consequences of the latest enemy shelling of Kharkiv. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv from two attacks today, citing Mayor Terekhov. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows explosion/shelling in urban area, watermark @KHARKIV_1654. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv. Colonelcassad posts new video of "Geranium" strikes on Kharkiv, explicitly claiming TCCs were hit and encouraging civilians to report TCC locations for further strikes. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment in a forested region of Kharkiv Oblast, showing structures, command post, and logistics area. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports the number of injured in the latest attack on Kharkiv has risen to 33. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, showing a significant explosion and smoke plume over an urban industrial area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of RUF aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. Two districts terrorized, residential buildings damaged. RUF source claims FAB-500 strike on crossing point near Ivanivka, with 29th Army advancing. Photo messages confirm RUF use of artillery and drones against Nikopol and Marhanets communities, damaging residential structures. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Nikopol district. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RUF Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) destroyed manpower of 31st UAF Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS reports foreign mercenaries destroyed by FAB strike in Yanvarskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (unverified by UAF). Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. Voenkor Kotenok confirms MoD RF reports of liberation of Dachne. LATEST: TASS video shows "liberation of Dachne." Dnevnik Desantnika video claims RF AF liberated Dachne. NEW: MoD Russia reports that as a result of resolute actions of the Tsentr Group of Forces, Dachnoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) has been liberated. Poddubny also reports liberation of Dachnoe. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a Ukrainian flag installed over Dachne, indicating contested claims. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast: No significant changes to battlefield geometry. Pokrovsk direction remains most active, UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 attacks (June 29-July 5), eliminating 147 RUF personnel. RUF claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye and Tolstoy, with MoD Russia video visually confirming Poddubnoye capture. RUF VDV active in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF continues to press in Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions. UAF drone operations active near Toretsk. RUF propaganda suggests Chasiv Yar fall leads to UAF defense collapse further west. 5 killed, 1 wounded in Donetsk Oblast shelling. RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area (possibly Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk). MoD Russia video shows drone/artillery strikes in South Donetsk and Chasiv Yar. UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped groups attempting to break through to Torske. RUF reportedly used a "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike drone for first time against civilian object in Druzhkivka. Air Force of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast. RUF 20th and 25th Armies operations reported. DeepState reports National Guardsmen destroyed a RUF 152mm artillery piece near Storozheve. TASS reports DNR head Pushilin claims RUF continues to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) and Poddubnoye (Donetsk), citing DeepState. "Dva mayora" (Two Majors) reports fundraising for "stormtroopers" in Kostiantynivka direction. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones (Shaheds) worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Rybar is seeking a designer for operational maps. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight in Donetsk Oblast. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Chasiv Yar. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Chervonyy Stav, Serebryanka, Karpivka, towards Novyi Myr and Torske. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Siversk direction near Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka and Ivano-Daryivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar and Yablunivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Razine, Promin, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Myrolubivka, Poltavka, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka and towards Filiya, Novomykolayivka, Pokrovsk, Molodetske, Dachne, Muravka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zaporizhzhya, Zirka, Myrne, Komar, Novosilka and towards Novopavlivka. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Huliaipole direction near Malynivka. Sternenko posts FPV drone video claiming to be from Pokrovsk direction showing military vehicles. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Kramatorsk. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that Lobkove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, was NOT occupied by the enemy, citing South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn, contradicting DeepState and RUF claims. LATEST: Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) posts photo messages of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye from 07.07.25 and a drone video showing a RUF military vehicle convoy moving on a dirt road, with destroyed buildings and smoke/explosions. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of Krasnolimansk direction, appearing to be a tactical map. NEW: ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast from Russian attacks, citing National Police. WarGonzo posts video showing a destroyed or disabled tank, indicating ongoing combat operations. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction, indicating continued RUF focus on this sector. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building, civilian belongings, and a child's toy in Komsomolskoye, implying civilian impact in Donetsk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kherson Oblast: RUF claims UAF strike on polyclinic in Nova Kakhovka (unverified). RUF "Dnepr" unit reportedly destroyed UAF M777 howitzer. RUF FPV drone strike on OKKO gas station in Kherson. RUF attacked rescuers. UAF reports repelling one RUF assault. RUF aviation airstrikes at Olhivka. UAF Marines continue air defense operations. MoD Russia video claims drone/artillery strikes. Armored ambulance vehicles arrived in Kherson Oblast (RUF logistical support). Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a significant smoke plume after an explosion in a field, with shouts of alarm, confirming military activity in the region. General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Lvove of Kherson region. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson. LATEST: Dva Mayora posts a video (aerial drone footage) of an artillery strike in a wooded area in Kherson direction, showing a significant explosion and smoke plume, with unit emblem of 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, 70th Motor Rifle Division. NEW: Butusov Plus posts a video showing an explosion in a field in Kherson Oblast, implying continued military activity affecting agricultural areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea impacted Mykolaiv city. Significant damage to residential buildings, catering facility, bank. Multiple Shaheds reported shot down. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides overall count of "mopeds," confirming continued tracking. NEW: Silvytys Odrony Pivden Ukraine reports a fire at an ammunition storage site in a Mykolaiv Oblast community at 071000Z JUL 25. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Odesa Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea. Explosion reported. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shahed UAVs. UAF Naval Forces celebrated in Odesa (high morale). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 12 Shahed UAVs from Black Sea towards Pivdenny/Chornomorsk, later diverting to Odesa, with 6 remaining. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa with strike drones. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person, with photos and videos confirming extensive fire and damaged vehicles. Sternenko, RBC-Ukraine, and Shef Hayabusa confirm fatality. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms one killed and civilian infrastructure damage. Oleg Synegubov reports one person killed in Odesa. NEW: Rybar posts a video showing damage to buildings in Odesa, including shattered windows and scattered debris, with active emergency services. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs targeted Poltava Oblast, confirmed strike on TCC building in Kremenchuk (3rd TCC strike this week), 2 injured, nearby residential damage. Video confirms significant damage. RUF UAV detected from Sumy region moving towards northern Poltava. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation continues KAB launches. RUF UAVs moving into Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. RUF MoD video claims destruction of UAF shelters. RUF sources claim UAF redeployed new units to Sumy, and over 20 trucks with RUF personnel reportedly redeploying to Sumy from southern regions. RUF reports 23 UAF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators soliciting support. Animated scheme by Colonelcassad confirms RUF strikes on 05-06 JUL. Two Mayors report explosions in Kondratovka district. TASS reports UAF 1st Separate Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. RBC-Ukraine reports killed in Bitytsia shelling risen to 2. Colonelcassad provides video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups from all front directions to Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 private houses burned, 2 deaths, 2 injuries. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports attack on Bitytskyi старостат. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki despite RUF introducing VDV and Naval Infantry. Two Mayors photo message shows map for Sumy direction, indicating continued RUF focus. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs launched at Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, followed by a missile alert. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms a missile on Sumy. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction near Kamyanka, Zelene, Krasne Pershe, Ambarne, Vovchansk and towards Khatnye. General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction where Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two residents of Khotinska community in Sumy Oblast were killed due to a strike UAV impact. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms RF AF liberation of Bessalovka. NEW: MoD Russia reports that the Sever Group of Forces continued to advance and liberated Bessalovka (Sumy region). Poddubny also reports liberation of Bessalovka. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that RUF is deliberately striking energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast. Dva Mayora posts a video with thermal/infrared imaging showing explosions along a treeline in Sumy direction, implying continued RUF artillery/drone strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Vinnytsia Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs detected moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast from southern Kyiv Oblast. Sternenko reports strike UAV threat. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations at its main address due to "tense situation in the country" for civilian safety. Alex Parker Returns confirms the suspension of Vinnytsia TCC. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attack with 5 Shahed UAVs damaged private/farming enterprises, warehouses, three multi-story buildings, 1 civilian injured. FPV drone attack on Polohivskyi district. UAF drones continue to destroy RUF artillery and logistics. RUF source claims combat, assault on Kamyanske and Mala Tokmachka. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area. Air raid alerts issued and lifted. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB/KAR launches. Two men wounded in Polohivskyi and Vasylivskyi districts. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove. New air raid alert issued. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) en route to/through Zaporizhzhia, later reporting 2 more. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports enemy attacking Zaporizhzhia with UAVs, initial reports indicate destruction and wounded. RBC-Ukraine confirms renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports at least 10 people injured. Colonelcassad video confirms "Geranium" drone impact in Zaporizhzhia civilian market. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit by drones. RBC-Ukraine also confirms university building hit. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 6 Shahed impacts on Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo messages show the aftermath of the attack, including damage to buildings and emergency services responding. They also confirm 6 injured are receiving medical help. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights shows drone hit on university building. ASTRA shows video of university damage in Zaporizhzhia. RBC-Ukraine shows photos of damage aftermath in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the situation in Zaporizhzhia, confirming attacks by at least three drones hitting residential areas and the city center around 10 AM, causing damage to dozens of buildings, university facilities, and resulting in 8 hospitalizations with more casualties expected. General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region. RUF source Poddubny claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured from enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia, with photos showing damage to a building. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the number of injured in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 11, citing the Oblast Military Administration. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine have posted photo messages showing the aftermath of drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 17 injured from the enemy attack. RBC-Ukraine also confirms 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage, smoke, and active firefighting efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Local authorities report UAF drone attacks on bus and vehicles, causing casualties (2 killed, 6 injured). RUF claims advanced 2km on new front section at Belgorod/Kharkiv Oblasts junction. UAF drone strike on civilian vehicle on Shebekino-Belgorod highway confirmed. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports civilian woman injured. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack underway. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports 30 UAF aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed by RUF AD. Additional 10 UAVs detected and destroyed. BRICS leaders condemn attacks on bridges/railway infrastructure (May 31, Jun 01, 05). Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed last night. Dnevnik Desantnika reports UAF drone strike on civilian woman in Bryansk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kaluga Oblast: 5 UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed by RUF AD. Airport restrictions lifted. FSB identified five accomplices of Kyiv's special services involved in arsons. TASS reports FSB detained Russians in 3 regions for helping Kyiv via phone scammers. Operation Z video shows FSB detaining alleged SBU accomplices involved in phone scams. LATEST: ASTRA posts video messages captioned "FSB reported the detention of Russian residents who allegedly set fire to security forces' cars and power line poles," showing individuals apprehended by FSB officers in Ivanovo City. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kamchatka Krai: Governor reports restrictions on mobile internet and geolocation. NEW: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks," citing RUF concerns after "Operation Spiderweb." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk): UAF Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) attacks confirmed on Novorossiysk throughout the night. RUF claims successful repel of some targets. Destroyed USV found. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. RUF claims no damage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kursk Oblast: UAF reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults. Putin posthumously named 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Mikhail Gudkov (propaganda). BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor Roman Starovoyt removed from Transport Minister post, under investigation for large-scale theft during fortification construction in southern regions of Kursk Oblast. Dnevnik Desantnika shows map of Kursk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Leningrad Oblast (Kirishi/Ust-Luga): Explosion and ammonia leak on Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port, reports of sinking. Kirishi district reports two UAVs shot down. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Lipetsk Oblast (Yelets): "UAV attack threat" lifted. Su-57s observed. Air danger alert issued and lifted. Governor reports massive attack last night, no casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moscow Oblast: 6 UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by RUF AD. High temperatures. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg halted, increased rail transport (disruption confirmed by ASTRA, STERNENKO, TASS, RBC-Ukraine, Shef Hayabusa, Two Mayors). Putin attended forum. RUF source claims enemy attempts to attack Moscow again. Sheremetyevo Airport reports 171 flights cancelled, 56 delayed. Civilian video confirms large crowd. ASTRA reports over 170 flights cancelled at Sheremetyevo and 90 at Pulkovo. "Transport collapse" cost airlines 20 billion rubles. Videos confirm morning drone activity in Krasnozavodsk, Moscow region (smoke plume in residential area, chemical plant target). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Shef Hayabusa posts videos of Krasnozavodsk chemical plant being targeted. Sever.Realii posts video of smoke plume from Krasnozavodsk chemical plant attack. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Kotsnews reports on the situation at Sheremetyevo airport. LATEST: TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions were lifted. NEW: News of Moscow posts photo messages with caption "❗️Slightly in Moscow again," showing a graph of network outages for MTS mobile operator over 24 hours. News of Moscow posts a photo message featuring "Othello" promoting weekend plans, potentially a domestic distraction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: Airport restrictions temporarily introduced/lifted. TASS confirms additional rail cars due to airport restrictions. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier Major Pavlov Oleksandr Mykolaiovych near Kulebaki. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports one UAV shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. TASS reports former head of Novgorod Oblast, Andrei Nikitin, may become next Russian Transport Minister. Putin has appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting head of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation. TASS video shows Putin meeting with Nikitin, discussing transport system efficiency. TASS reports Nikitin stated intention to create a unified system for unmanned transport. TASS reports Nikitin aiming for Russian transport system to be one of the most effective in the world. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms Nikitin's appointment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Pskov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced at Pskov airport due to UAV threat, then lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Samara Oblast: Governor transferred significant aid (drones, EW, vehicles) to troops. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • St. Petersburg (Pulkovo Airport): Mass flight delays/cancellations due to UAV threats. ASTRA reports over 90 flights cancelled. TASS reports airport open for reception. Restrictions lifted. Pulkovo warns of possible baggage non-delivery due to high load. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport situation, showing cancelled flights and people resting on floor, citing drone threat. LATEST: TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions were lifted. NEW: Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon in St. Petersburg, with commentary about his front-line experiences and desire for peace. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Saratov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced and lifted at Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Tver Oblast: TASS reports three UAVs shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Voronezh Oblast: BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. TASS reports several UAVs detected and destroyed. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Dnevnik Desantnika reports train movement restored after UAV debris fell. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • General (RU): RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (likely exaggerated, UAF claims 117/157 neutralized). UAF deep strikes continue to affect Russian air travel. RUF MoD claims 39 UAVs shot down (08:30-14:00 MSK), and additional 48 UAVs. "Protracted Ukrainian UAV attack continues." Satellite imagery indicates possible damage to Borisoglebsk airfield. RUF MoD shows 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing/modernizing drones. New FPV drone video claims "netted" captured UAF drone. TASS confirms flight restrictions. Unconfirmed report of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Ivanovo, Tambov, Yaroslavl. MoD Russia shows military training. Two Mayors video shows RUF AD intercepting drone. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts photos of drones and fundraising messages. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV being tested in Tomsk. TASS reports airline damages of 20 billion rubles. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics." New TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad provides photo of downed reconnaissance/attack drone. TASS reports 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. Rybar provides video showcasing intelligence gathering/analysis. Colonelcassad discusses "important information about the channel's work and bots." ASTRA reports proposal in State Duma for new fee on foreign trips. RBC-Ukraine reports airline collapse will cost 20 billion rubles. Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates this claim. Rosaviatsiya claims all airports working normally (contradicting other sources). Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. TASS reports new bill in State Duma to exempt large families from toll road fees. TASS reports Interior Ministry claims fraudsters use new tricks to install viruses on phones. Two Mayors reports on border area drone attacks, likely referring to UAF. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on what appear to be armored vehicles or equipment. TASS reports Committee of State Duma approved increase of fines up to 1 million rubles for imposing additional goods/services on consumers. TASS reports Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. TASS reports Ministry of Education working on new teacher payment system to increase salaries. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi. TASS reports 1245 UAF personnel losses in the SVO zone per MoD RF. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms RF strikes on TCCs and drone storage. NEW: TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including a claim of Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory and civilian targets in border regions, confirming ongoing cross-border incidents. MoD Russia posts an image of medals and ribbons, a general propaganda piece. Kotsnews posts a video captioned "Geraniums hit two more TCCs," implying continued strikes on military recruitment centers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Dagestan (Buynaksk): Teenager arrested for alleged terrorist act attempt, district head arrested for fraud. Kadyrov_95 video shows Chechen officials inspecting road and meeting for cultural-sports festival. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • POW Claim: RUF sources claim capture of Stanislav Anatolievich Kostenko from UAF 80th ODShBr, alleging surrender. Butusov Plus claims video shows RUF serviceman alleging torture/abuse by "Somali" unit. TASS video shows Prilepin claiming survival from explosion due to perpetrator error. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts photo/video of deceased individual (likely RUF) captioned "successfully demobilized." Butusov Plus posts video with caption "Chained together..." showing individuals in military-style clothing near a damaged truck, timestamped July 6, 2025. This may be a UAF unit. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping, identified as a commander of an assault motorized group (callsign Luna), claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering without engaging in combat. Coordination Staff for POWs in Kharkiv held an event "Don't be silent. Captivity kills" in support of POWs and missing defenders. LATEST: TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. NEW: Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Kamyshin, Izhevsk, Glazov), indicating continued POW issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Khabarovsk Krai: Police department recruiting new personnel. Two local women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. Khabarovsk Police posts photo message of police couple, likely for recruitment/morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Russian Issues: Fraudsters bypassing two-factor authentication. Russian government supported bill to increase fines for animal welfare. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. TASS reports 950 cars queue on Crimean Bridge. TASS reports vote of no confidence against EC head Ursula von der Leyen. RF Cabinet of Ministers approved animal treatment plan. Basurin o glavnom posted financial/business snippets. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up at race (internal civilian distraction). TASS reports new bill in State Duma to include period of care for each child up to 1.5 years in insurance record. News of Moscow reports incident at metro station in Moscow, unrelated to military action. Mash na Donbashe posts video of civilian activity on a beach in Melekino (occupied territory), suggesting normalcy propaganda. News of Moscow reports bill to make free travel on toll roads for large families. TASS reports on Spain's running of the bulls (civilian distraction). Butusov Plus reports on Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev's death and financial struggles, highlighting internal issues. ASTRA reports a participant of the war in Ukraine killed his wife and daughter in Vladikavkaz. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Here's how 10 years passed" and a photo of a bathroom with caption "More than 1 million ideas how to furnish your home." Basurin o glavnom posts "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'" for news agenda management. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts message about hating crypto traders. News of Moscow posts photo "Vitamin C rejuvenates skin from the inside." LATEST: TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years. Basurin o glavnom shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure," showing vandalism and arson against utility boxes. NEW: Basurin o главном posts a new episode of his "Basurin Answers!" program. Colonelcassad posts a photo message about a bill introduced by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation to perpetuate the memory of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, indicating a domestic political issue. WarGonzo posts a video related to Zakhar Prilepin, which also touches on domestic political figures and their involvement in the conflict. NEW: TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, indicating internal legal issues. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating continued internal corruption issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Black Sea: New groups of RUF Shahed UAVs detected from Black Sea, en route to Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts and Kinburn Spit/Dmytrivka/Parutyne. RUF Naval activity includes 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (8 Kalibr), 1 patrol ship. No missile carriers in Sea of Azov. RUF tactical aviation activity in Azov Sea. Ukrainian source explains why Russia deploys submarines but does not fire. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RUF strikes originating from Black Sea/Crimea. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea (now lifted). Air Force of Ukraine reports movement of strike UAVs from Black Sea/Kherson region towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports air alerts due to drones. Two Mayors video shows rocket launch in Crimea. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" ballistic missile from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports Shahed UAV moving towards Odesa. Air Force of Ukraine reports UAV heading to Odesa from eastern direction. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person in Odesa. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms significant destruction and firefighting efforts in Odesa. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from the south (now lifted). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Rotation of IAEA observers confirmed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled as of 070600Z JUL 25. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Transcarpathia (Zakarpattia Oblast): RBK-Ukraina reports a drunk BMW driver rammed a checkpoint, killing a border guard. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine: Forecast indicates heat up to +37°C and thunderstorms for the coming week.
• Impact: High temperatures will exacerbate heat stress on personnel and equipment. Thunderstorms may disrupt drone operations, limit air support, and affect ground maneuverability due to muddy conditions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Maintaining defensive posture across most sectors. Active counter-drone operations in Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Odesa with successful neutralizations (75 UAVs shot down as of 070635Z, 75/101 total hostile UAVs as of 070636Z). Redeploying units to Sumy direction. Prioritizing air defense against Shahed and ballistic missile threats. Actively using FPV drones against RUF logistics and personnel. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade confirms drone operations. FPV drone footage confirms successful strikes. "Spartan NGU" and "Butusov Plus" videos show successful drone strikes. Appeals for support indicate sustained public support. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopping RUF groups near Torske. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows successful drone strikes on RUF personnel on motorcycles. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations for vehicles. DeepState shows National Guardsmen destroying a RUF 152mm artillery. DeepState reports map updated. Butusov Plus reports past UAF night drone successes. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. GSU and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF combat losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. RBC-Ukraine reports injured in Kharkiv transported to hospitals. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports firefighters extinguished fires in Sumy and Odesa. General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos depict solemn moments of silence. "Brigade Khizhak" released video showing effective June strikes in Toretsk, targeting RUF personnel and mortar positions. "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is fundraising for lost equipment/property. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from south, now lifted. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv. UAF Desantno-shturmovi Viyska (DSV) posts video of drone strike on RUF positions in wooded areas, using thermal and visible light imaging. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights claims drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine videos show aftermath of drone attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows aftermath of 6 Shahed impacts in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. Oleg Synegubov states 7 injured in Kharkiv as of latest report. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. General Staff reports RF used around 1270 drones, 39 missiles, and nearly 1000 KABs last week. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Sternenko posts FPV drone video of "Hornets of Dovbush" (UAF unit) continuing to restrain the enemy in Pokrovsk direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn confirming Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) was NOT occupied. LATEST: UAF General Staff provides multiple photo messages of new recruits of the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade undergoing basic military training within the "Contract 18-24" program, indicating continued training and recruitment efforts. Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle on a combat mission, highlighting ongoing drone threats and tactical challenges. RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck, indicating unit-level resource needs. UAF Rustem Umierov reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply to the Armed Forces. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days thanks to public support. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, implying internal investigations and efforts to ensure supply quality. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official who allegedly stole 90 million UAH by supplying defective anti-tank weapons to the UAF. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts a video showing two UAF drone operators taking a Russian assault aircraft "in pincers," from the 414th SBS "Birds of Madyar" Brigade, suggesting effective UAF drone operations against RUF aviation. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne, indicating a contested claim of control with RUF. NEW: Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo, implying continued international support. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video showing the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, with firefighters and emergency services responding, indicating immediate UAF response capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF: Main effort in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Chasiv Yar) with high-intensity assaults. Fixing operations in Kharkiv and Sumy to pin UAF reserves. Continued widespread use of glide bombs and FPV drones. Increased drone and missile activity against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on Kostiantynivka direction. "Voion DV" video of FAB-1500 strike. MoD Russia video shows UAV operators hitting enemy. Rybar tactical analysis of Pokrovsko-Mirnogradskoe direction. Claims Kupyansk under threat of encirclement. MoD Russia video showing Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Operation Z reinforces RUF claims of intense fighting near Pokrovsk. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in northeastern direction. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Rybar provides imagery/maps. Colonelcassad video shows 20th Army combat. Alex Parker Returns video shows Russian vehicle/personnel under fire near Kupyansk. Colonelcassad video confirms armored ambulance vehicles in Kherson Oblast. Воин DV reports FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka. Colonelcassad photo messages from SVO front. Thermal imaging video of combat in Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying enemy armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows soldiers building chapel. Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. Colonelcassad discusses neck protection on body armor. Kotsnews video shows drone strike with telemetry. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of enemy armored vehicles and positions. WarGonzo posts multiple "Frontline Summary" updates and tactical maps. Two Mayors provides footage from Pokrovsk direction. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. Colonelcassad video shows "Tula paratroopers" drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. "Operation Z" shares video of Russian army drones destroying enemy on all directions (claims operations in Sumy, Northern, and South-Donetsk directions, showing destruction of lightly armored vehicles). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 more RUF "mopeds" (UAVs) heading towards Zaporizhzhia. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones (Shaheds) worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight. Vooin DV posts video of large explosion, likely a FAB strike in a populated area. Two Mayors video shows specialized marine detachment (likely SpN) diving capabilities. Dmitry Medvedev's channel posts cryptic message with emojis, potentially a new propaganda initiative. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping (callsign Luna) claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering without engaging in combat. Vooin DV video shows drone strike on UAF vehicle near Voskresenka. Voenkor Kotenok reports Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, stating UAF TCCs are relocating. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit (Tsentr Group of Forces) firing leaflet projectiles (psychological operations). TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF. TASS reports UAF losses of ~1245 personnel in the SVO zone per MoD RF. LATEST: Colonelcassad posts an animated map showing strikes on Ukraine from 06-07 JUL, indicating widespread RUF targeting. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming continued targeting of these assets. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms RF strikes on TCCs and drone storage. Dnevnik Desantnika video claims RF AF liberated Dachne and Bessalovka, indicating continued ground gains. Basurin o glavnom discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group, signaling flexibility in diplomatic approaches. Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure," supporting a narrative of internal Ukrainian resistance. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, likely for de-escalation purposes with NATO. Dva Mayora posts Lavrov's statement from the Russian MoD, confirming high-level diplomatic messaging. NEW: Poddubny reports that the Russian army liberated Bessalovka and Dachnoe. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Dachnoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) by the Tsentr Group of Forces and Bessalovka (Sumy region) by the Sever Group of Forces. MoD Russia posts a promotional image featuring medals and ribbons, a general propaganda piece. Kotsnews posts a video captioned "Geraniums hit two more TCCs," implying continued strikes on military recruitment centers. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, indicating continued RUF strikes. WarGonzo posts a video featuring Zakhar Prilepin, which may be part of RUF information operations. NEW: Operation Z posts a photo message reiterating Russia's demands for legally enshrined guarantees in future peace agreements with Ukraine, including the inclusion of Crimea, Sevastopol, DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, and return of illegally arrested Russian assets. Dnevnik Desantnika reiterates these demands. WarGonzo posts a video showing a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank, indicating successful RUF engagements. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a convoy of vehicles, including what appear to be tanks, moving along a road, suggesting continued ground movement capability. Rybar posts a video showing the aftermath of a strike on an urban area, possibly Odesa, showing damaged buildings and emergency services, indicating continued RUF strike capabilities on urban infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Control Measures: Widespread air raid alerts across multiple Ukrainian oblasts due to UAV, ballistic missile, and aviation weapon threats (Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv). New ballistic missile threat declared for regions with active alerts, originating from northeast, now lifted. Temporary flight restrictions in various Russian airports due to UAV threats. Russian aviation authorities acknowledge interference but claim sufficient resources (contradicted by ASTRA/TASS). Sternenko reports drone safety measures in multiple Russian oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine reports ongoing threats and UAV movements. Lipetsk Oblast air danger alert. TASS reports RUF AD success over Voronezh. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa. Air Force reports UAV heading to Odesa. Kyiv City Military Administration reports new air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat, then all-clear. Air Force of Ukraine confirms ballistic missile threat in alert areas, then lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new air raid alert. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from south (now lifted). RBC-Ukraine reports air alerts due to drones. Air Force of Ukraine reports RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports new air raid alert due to UAV attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat lifted. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations at its main address for civilian safety. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports widespread air raid alerts due to ballistic missile threat. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo message indicates transport movement restrictions. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from eastern direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "ATTENTION" alert. LATEST: Air Force of Ukraine reports "all clear" for ballistic missile threats. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that TCCs in Lviv Oblast have strengthened security measures due to Russian attacks on TCCs and SP. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities: RUF maintains significant artillery and air support (FAB-1500, FAB-500 confirmed). Sustained ground assaults using mechanized and VDV units. Robust drone and missile attack capabilities demonstrated against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. New confirmation of ballistic missile employment capability from northeast. Effective EW implied by UAF UAV losses. RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities and claims of capturing UAF drones. Colonelcassad claims RUF drone operators shot down 50 Ukrainian reconnaissance drones over Chasiv Yar (some by ramming). MoD Russia video showcases UAV strikes. RUF adapted decoy drones ("Gerbera") into strike platforms. Colonelcassad videos confirm RUF 20th and 25th Armies effective use of artillery and drones. Operation Z videos demonstrate RUF capabilities near Pokrovsk. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. Alex Parker Returns claims unsuccessful "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch (some limitation). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts fundraising for drones. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Butusov Plus reports past RF vulnerability to UAF drone capabilities. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging video demonstrates continued drone use for targeting. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets. Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. RUF claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (indicating robust AD). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection indicate focus on soldier survivability. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 enemy UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video shows drone-guided artillery. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Shef Hayabusa video highlights RUF AD failures against Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (vulnerability). Two Mayors video of military convoy in Pokrovsk direction. Rybar's video indicates RUF's advanced intelligence capabilities. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. Operation Z video showcasing Russian army drones destroying enemy armor. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Vooin DV posts video of large explosion, likely a FAB strike. Two Mayors video shows specialized marine detachment (likely SpN) diving capabilities. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment. TASS video shows a soldier from the 'Vostok' grouping (callsign Luna) claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering without engaging in combat. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone targeting UAF vehicle. General Staff reports RUF used ~1270 drones, 39 missiles, and ~1000 KABs last week. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming psychological warfare capabilities. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming continued precision strike capability. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF, which, if true, indicates effective RUF pressure and psychological operations. TASS video shows footage claiming to be the liberation of Dachne, indicating active use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting in offensive operations. Dnevnik Desantnika video reinforces RF AF capabilities in localized ground operations. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity implies an ongoing hybrid warfare capability, including incitement of sabotage within Ukraine. NEW: Dnevnik Desantnika video of aerial view of Kharkiv urban environment with explosion/smoke plume demonstrates continued RUF strike capabilities on urban areas. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv, showing the effectiveness of drone attacks. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy, some with damage, moving on a dirt road, suggesting continued ground maneuver capability. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction confirms RUF artillery effectiveness. Kotsnews video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs indicates persistent RUF precision strike capability against these targets. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, indicating continued artillery/drone strike capabilities. NEW: WarGonzo posts video showing a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank, demonstrating RUF drone-based targeting and engagement capabilities against UAF armor. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy, indicating continued RUF ground maneuver and logistical capabilities. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, confirming RUF capabilities for urban area bombardment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video showing the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, confirming RUF capabilities for strikes on urban civilian infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Most capabilities), MEDIUM (Oreshnik missile reliability).
• Intentions:
  • Eastern Axis (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk): Seize Chasiv Yar, consolidate control towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk. Maintain pressure on Pokrovsk. RUF 255th Regiment advances towards Kostiantynivka. RUF source claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye. Rybar analysis suggests advance towards Mirnohrad. Encircle Kupyansk. MoD Russia video showing Russian flag over Poddubnoye. TASS reports Pushilin claims RUF intent to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Operation Z via Rus Vesna reports ISW assessment on encircling Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk encirclement on roads. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight, indicating continued intent to strike these strategic cities. General Staff reports continued clashes in Eastern directions. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF, indicating continued territorial gains. LATEST: MoD RF official reports of liberating Dachne and Bessalovka confirm continued intent for localized territorial gains. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, which is a narrative aimed at reducing perceived external threats from Russia. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, likely for de-escalation purposes with NATO. NEW: Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) photo message of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye from 07.07.25 indicates continued RUF focus on the Pokrovsk axis. Voenkor Kotenok's Krasnolimansk direction map confirms continued RUF focus on this sector. NEW: Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemzet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine, including the inclusion of occupied territories (Crimea, Sevastopol, DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts), demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, and return of illegally arrested Russian assets. This clearly states maximalist intentions for conflict resolution. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction, indicating continued RUF offensive intent in this sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Fix UAF forces, prevent redeployment. Potential for renewed, larger-scale offensive towards Kharkiv (currently shaping). Increased RUF activity in Sumy may indicate new shaping or diversion. TASS reports UAF 1st Tank Brigade on Sumy direction. Air Force reports active tactical aviation in northeast. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas. Воин DV claiming advance of 29th Army in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy Oblast. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv directions, confirming persistent RUF intent in Sumy against UAF holding positions. Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv, indicating continued intent to terrorize/degrade civilian and military infrastructure in the city. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits on Kharkiv, reinforcing intent to target the city. Terekhov reports a seriously injured woman, reinforcing intent to inflict casualties. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF, indicating continued territorial gains. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, confirming continued intent to strike civilian targets. MoD RF reports of liberating Bessalovka confirm continued intent for localized territorial gains. NEW: Colonelcassad posts new video of "Geranium" strikes on Kharkiv, explicitly claiming TCCs were hit and encouraging civilians to report TCC locations for further strikes, directly confirming the intent to target TCCs and incite local intelligence gathering for these strikes. Vooin DV video provides aerial reconnaissance of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment, indicating RUF intent to target UAF formations in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast, confirming intent to degrade critical infrastructure. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued RUF offensive intent in this area. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, confirming continued intent to strike urban areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fixing), MEDIUM (Larger offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy).
  • Deep Operations: Degrade Ukrainian morale and mobilization by striking TCCs and civilian infrastructure. Air Force reports active strike UAVs and ballistic missile threats. Poltava TCC strike (Colonelcassad). New drone attacks on Kyiv and Odesa. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations due to "hunting." Attacks on Kharkiv with civilian casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fatality in Odesa. ASTRA confirms 2 killed, 2 injured in Sumy. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Kharkiv explosions in residential areas confirm continued intent to target the city. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports destruction and wounded from drone attack, confirming continued combined attacks against urban centers. RUF target of Vinnytsia TCC (suspension of operations) confirms continued intent to degrade mobilization. Confirmed impact on university building in Zaporizhzhia indicates targeting of civilian infrastructure. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, explicitly confirming and reiterating the intent to target these assets. NEW: Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further "Geranium" strikes, indicating a direct intent to leverage civilian intelligence for targeting TCCs. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, reinforcing this intent. Rybar posts a video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, confirming RUF intent to continue striking urban civilian infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and firefighting efforts, confirming the intent to target urban civilian areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Degrade UAF Drone Capabilities: RUF continues to actively target UAF UAV launch/staging sites and attempt to capture UAF drones. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day, explicitly confirming this intent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • MLCOA: Continued high-intensity assaults on Chasiv Yar to secure Kanal microdistrict and attempt canal crossings (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire against UAF. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat operations in Donetsk, utilizing thermal drones. KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics capabilities employed. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building activities (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Continued artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight, indicating continuation of deep strike operations. Colonelcassad video confirms "Geranium" drone impact in Zaporizhzhia civilian market, reinforcing MLCOA of continued urban strikes. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone targeting UAF vehicle in Voskresenka area. General Staff reports continued clashes in all directions. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming continued psychological operations. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF, indicating continued ground advances. LATEST: Colonelcassad posts an animated map of strikes from 06-07 JUL, which supports MLCOA for widespread, coordinated strikes across Ukraine. TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites, confirming MLCOA for continued targeting of these specific assets. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, suggesting continued RUF pressure and psychological operations will continue. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms offensive operations with drone support. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity suggests MLCOA for continued hybrid warfare/sabotage incitement. NEW: MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka and Dachnoe, indicating continued MLCOA for localized territorial gains. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms explosion/shelling in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for continued urban strikes. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly states the targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv and encourages civilian reporting of TCC locations for further strikes, confirming MLCOA for continued focused strikes on mobilization centers using intelligence from local sources. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video showing a RUF military vehicle convoy with damaged vehicles suggests MLCOA for continued ground movement, even with some attritional losses. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction confirms MLCOA for continued artillery support to ground operations. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video showing UAF drone operators targeting a Russian assault aircraft indicates MLCOA for RUF aviation operations within areas susceptible to UAF drone counter-attacks. Kotsnews video confirms MLCOA for continued "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast, indicating MLCOA for continued strikes on critical infrastructure. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming MLCOA for continued offensive actions. NEW: Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemzet, confirm MLCOA for Russia to insist on maximalist demands in any future peace agreement with Ukraine. WarGonzo posts video of a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank, indicating MLCOA for continued RUF drone-based targeting and engagement. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy, indicating MLCOA for continued ground movement. Rybar posts video of aftermath of Odesa strike, confirming MLCOA for continued urban strikes. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, confirming MLCOA for continued strikes on urban civilian infrastructure. Mash na Donbashe posts video showing a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, indicating MLCOA for continued ground operations impacting civilian areas in Donetsk. WarGonzo posts a video showing a significant explosion in an urban environment, indicating MLCOA for continued high-impact strikes on urban areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • MDCOA: A concerted, large-scale armored thrust towards Kharkiv city from the north, or a new ground offensive in Sumy Oblast, aimed at opening a new front to further stretch UAF defenses, potentially supported by intensified long-range strikes. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • TCC Targeting: Deliberate and repeated targeting of Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs). Video confirms damage. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations, directly impacting mobilization. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, stating UAF TCCs are relocating. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs over the past day, confirming this remains a primary tactical adaptation. Dnevnik Desantnika confirms RF strikes on TCCs. NEW: Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further strikes, indicating a tactical adaptation to gather local intelligence for targeting these facilities. Kotsnews posts a video captioned "Geraniums hit two more TCCs," further confirming this tactical adaptation. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, confirming this tactical adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Combined Attacks: Continued coordinated drone (Shahed) and ballistic missile attacks against civilian/critical infrastructure. Latest strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa confirm tactic, with high civilian casualties. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" drone attacks. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. Kharkiv explosions in residential areas confirm continued targeting of civilian infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports destruction and wounded from drone attack, confirming continued combined attacks against urban centers. Colonelcassad video of "Geranium" impact in Zaporizhzhia civilian market, confirms continued targeting of civilian areas. Confirmed impact on university building in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, confirming continued use of drones for strikes on urban areas. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, confirming continued attacks on civilian infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and firefighting efforts, confirming continued strikes on urban civilian areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • VDV Role: Active engagement of VDV units in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Sumy directions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Adaptation in Chasiv Yar: Shift from larger battalion-level assaults to more frequent company-sized mechanized attacks. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics (ramming). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone Sustainment: Dedicated repair/modernization units, claims of capturing UAF drones. Decentralized fundraising for drones. New multipurpose UAV testing. KVN drones for counter-armor. Successful interceptions of UAF reconnaissance/attack drones. Analysis of UAF FPV drone warheads. Rybar's video indicates focus on intelligence for drone operations. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment, highlighting continued drone effectiveness. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day, confirming RF's focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities as a tactical adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Heavy Glide Bomb Employment: Confirmed use of FAB-1500s and FAB-500s. Continued artillery use in Dnipropetrovsk. Vooin DV posts video of a large explosion, likely a FAB strike, indicating continued use of heavy glide bombs. General Staff reports ~1000 KABs used last week. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Localized Advances: Explicit RUF claims of advancing after "liberating" Poddubnoye and starting assault on Tolstoy. Video and photos confirm capture of Poddubnoye. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF. LATEST: Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Dnevnik Desantnika videos confirm the liberation of Dachne and Bessalovka, indicating continued tactical adaptation for localized advances. NEW: MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka and Dachnoe, representing continued tactical adaptation for territorial gains. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Gerbera" Drone Adaptation: First reported use of "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike platform against civilian object in Druzhkivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Communication Resilience: MoD Russia video shows soldiers establishing communication links. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moto-Assaults: RUF forces conducting "moto-assaults" (motorcycle-borne infantry) repelled by UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-UAV Systems: Belarusian counter-UAV system observed. RUF initiative to popularize shooting down enemy drones through training. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Special Forces in Border Areas: "Anvar" SpN unit operating in Sumy and Chernihiv border areas. Two Mayors posts video showcasing diving activities of a "Marine Detachment" (likely RUF SpN), indicating specialized unit capabilities being highlighted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ballistic Missile Experimentation: "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure suggests development/experimentation. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Tactical Training Refinements: "Jeweler's precision" training for stormtroopers in 20th Army. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kupyansk Encirclement TTPs: Deliberate tactical focus on cutting GLOCs around Kupyansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Logistical Support in Occupied Areas: Armored ambulances arriving in Kherson Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone-based Targeting: Thermal imaging video demonstrates continued effective use of drones for targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-Robotics Capabilities: RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Psychological Operations with Leaflets: BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching propaganda leaflets with QR codes. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles, confirming continued psychological operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Morale/Religious Support: Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Security Operations: FSB identified accomplices of Kyiv's special services in Kaluga Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained more individuals for assisting Kyiv via phone scammers. TASS reports Interior Ministry claims fraudsters use new tricks to install viruses on phones, indicating continued internal security focus against cyber threats. Operation Z video confirms FSB detentions of alleged SBU accomplices in phone scam operations. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson, indicating continued counter-intelligence operations by both sides. LATEST: Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure," which could be a RUF tactical adaptation to incitement of sabotage or to frame internal Ukrainian dissent as coordinated action. NEW: ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, confirming continued internal security operations and their tactical adaptation to counter alleged sabotage. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, indicating an internal legal/accountability adaptation. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating continued internal anti-corruption operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeting UAF Drone Infrastructure: RUF D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging sites. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day, confirming this tactical adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Corruption Investigation: Former Kursk Governor Roman Starovoyt investigated for large-scale theft during fortification construction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Governmental Appointments: Putin appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting Minister of Transport. NEW: TASS reports the State Duma will immediately consider the Transport Minister candidate, indicating rapid political adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Regulatory Focus: Russian Ministry of Transport to create a unified system for unmanned transport identification. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Increased Fines for Consumer Rights Violations: State Duma committee approved increased fines for imposing additional goods/services. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Increased State Duties: Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Negotiation Strategy: Basurin o главном discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group, suggesting a tactical adaptation in diplomatic approach to future negotiations. NEW: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov stating Ukraine must enshrine "denazification and demilitarization" in a peace agreement, indicating a continued maximalist diplomatic stance as a tactical adaptation for future negotiations. Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages reiterate Russia's demands for a peace agreement, confirming a consistent diplomatic adaptation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeting Critical Infrastructure (Sumy): Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF deliberately targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast, indicating a tactical adaptation to degrade civilian services. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kamchatka Internet Restrictions: The decision to disable mobile internet in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks" indicates a tactical adaptation by RUF to preemptively counter potential UAF deep strikes or internal unrest, prioritizing security over civilian communication. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF: Continued ability to sustain offensive operations, including glide bomb and drone usage. Regional governmental support (Samara Oblast). Demonstrated drone repair/modernization. RUF MoD claims destruction of UAF shelters in Sumy Oblast. Appeals for thermal imagers (localized needs). Fundraising for "stormtroopers." Armored ambulances in Kherson. Airline losses (economic impact, confirmed 20 billion rubles). MoD RF demands recovery of rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics" (potential industrial issues). Soldiers building chapel (morale support logistics). Crimean Bridge queue (civilian logistics burden/security). Neck protection in body armor implies sustainment focus. Mobile internet and geolocation restrictions in Kamchatka (internal security/disruption measure). Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor under investigation for large-scale theft during fortification construction, indicating potential internal corruption impacting defense logistics. Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles, suggesting issues with promises/support for personnel. TASS reports civil doctors will be sent to military hospitals without a contract. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi, indicating continued internal travel disruptions affecting logistics. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day, indicating RF's focus on disrupting UAF logistics and sustainment. NEW: News of Moscow reports network outages for MTS, which could impact command, control, and logistics if prolonged. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a military convoy, indicating continued logistical capability for ground movement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF: Continued resupply and support. GLOCs into Chasiv Yar under severe fire. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade publicly soliciting donations for drones (ongoing needs). Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising success. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers appealing for donations. TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation (logistical/MEDEVAC challenges). RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water (civilian infrastructure repair/resource allocation). Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. Butusov Plus video showing individuals in military-style clothing near a damaged truck, timestamped July 6, 2025, could indicate UAF logistical challenges or losses. Vinnytsia TCC suspension due to "tense situation" suggests strain on mobilization logistics. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 6 injured receiving medical help. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) was NOT occupied, which reduces logistical strain by maintaining this position. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia by a drunk driver; this is a non-combat casualty but still a loss of personnel impacting readiness at fixed checkpoints. LATEST: RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck, indicating ongoing localized logistics and sustainment needs for frontline units. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, indicating UAF efforts to improve logistics and sustainment. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days thanks to public support. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, highlighting issues with quality control and potential corruption impacting logistical effectiveness. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official who allegedly stole 90 million UAH by supplying defective anti-tank weapons to the UAF, reinforcing concerns about internal corruption affecting UAF sustainment. Two Mayora posts a photo message of a sender having sent knives to Ivan from Tula, which is a minor, civilian-level example of support, but it doesn't indicate military logistics. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site indicates a significant logistical setback. NEW: Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia, highlighting the continued logistical and emotional burden of managing POW issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Appears to maintain effective C2 for coordinating multi-domain strikes and ground operations. Putin's public appearances project strong leadership. Internal criticism regarding Maj. Gen. Gudkov's death (some internal C2/tactical discipline issues). Igor Artamonov's video supports state-backed military-industrial complex. Butusov Plus video alleges torture/abuse in "Somali" unit (severe internal C2 issues, discipline). MoD Russia video shows units establishing communication links. Kadyrov_95 video shows integrated civilian/military control. Colonelcassad video shows clear command/coordination during tactical assaults. Alex Parker Returns photo message hints at internal criticism. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging demonstrates integrated drone intelligence. Dnevnik Desantnika reinforces cohesion. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows organized morale effort. TASS reports on EU vote of no confidence (interest in Western political stability). Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection imply C2 emphasis on soldier safety. Basurin o glavnom posted financial/business snippets. WarGonzo publishing multiple frontline summaries. Rybar's video emphasizes intelligence gathering for C2. Colonelcassad's message about channel work/bots. RUF sources indicate ongoing (though undefined) Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, with Russia claiming Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" and rejecting terms, suggesting RUF C2 is prepared for prolonged conflict. Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor under investigation for large-scale theft during fortification construction, suggesting potential internal C2 issues related to corruption and accountability within regional administration/military infrastructure projects. TASS reports Putin appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting head of the Ministry of Transport, indicating top-level C2 changes and appointments. TASS video shows Putin meeting Nikitin. Basurin o главном publishes a "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'" for news agenda management, indicating a C2 focus on information control. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites, indicating coordinated C2 for targeting strategic assets. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF, which, if verified, reflects effective RUF C2 in exploiting UAF vulnerabilities. Dnevnik Desantnika video of RF AF operations confirms unit cohesion and C2 effectiveness in localized offensives. Basurin o главном discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group, indicating high-level C2 flexibility in diplomatic strategy. Lavrov's statement about peace terms reveals top-level C2 directives regarding maximalist negotiation positions. NEW: TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including ongoing shelling of Russian territory, demonstrating C2 acknowledging and addressing cross-border incidents. News of Moscow reports network outages for MTS, which could impact C2 if prolonged. Colonelcassad's post about the Lenin bill suggests a C2 focus on domestic political narratives. Kotsnews video confirms effective C2 in targeting TCCs with "Geraniums." WarGonzo's video of Zakhar Prilepin suggests continued C2 support for influential figures. NEW: Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages explicitly state Russia's demands for a peace agreement, confirming high-level C2 directives for diplomatic strategy. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, indicating C2 addressing internal legal accountability issues. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating C2 focus on internal anti-corruption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Overall C2), MEDIUM (Internal disciplinary issues within specific units, potential for emerging internal criticism).
• UAF: Demonstrating coordinated air defense and effective counter-drone operations. Concerns regarding readiness of some TRO units due to conscription challenges. DeepState video of successful 152mm artillery destruction. Oleg Vilkul reports situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on casualties in Kharkiv and Odesa (rapid reporting, coordination). General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Operatyvnyi ZSU, KMVA videos/photos emphasize daily moments of silence (morale, cohesion). General Staff reports estimated RUF combat losses. Air Force reports 75 UAVs shot down (out of 101 drones and 4 missiles). Air Force of Ukraine and Oblast Military Administrations are issuing rapid alerts for ballistic missile and drone threats and providing immediate updates on impacts/casualties, indicating effective C2 in crisis response. Vinnytsia TCC suspending operations indicates rapid C2 response to perceived threats. Oleg Synegubov providing immediate updates on Kharkiv casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn contradicting DeepState's report on Lobkove, indicating dynamic C2 and rapid information correction. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson, indicating effective counter-intelligence C2. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia by a drunk driver; the incident itself is not military C2, but the fact of rapid reporting and local administration response indicates effective civilian/security C2. LATEST: UAF General Staff releases multiple photo messages of new recruits undergoing training for the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade, demonstrating effective C2 in personnel management and readiness building. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on increasing casualties in Kharkiv (16 injured) and Zaporizhzhia (11 injured), indicating effective C2 in reporting and emergency response. STERNENKO reports on the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, demonstrating C2 effectiveness in modernizing logistics and supply chains. RBC-Ukraine reports on candidates for US Ambassador, indicating UAF and political C2 focus on key diplomatic relations. NEW: Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, indicating UAF C2 is actively addressing corruption and internal supply chain issues. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official who allegedly stole 90 million UAH by supplying defective anti-tank weapons to the UAF, reinforcing UAF C2's commitment to accountability. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a fire at an ammunition storage site in Mykolaiv Oblast, indicating C2 awareness and reporting of logistical incidents. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF striking energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast, indicating UAF C2's awareness of RUF targeting patterns. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports on the rising number of injured in Kharkiv (33), indicating effective C2 in casualty tracking and public communication. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video showing the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing emergency services responding, confirming C2 for emergency response. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen held captive, demonstrating C2 awareness and support for POW issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Air defense/counter-drone, targeting), MEDIUM (TRO readiness issues).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains resilient defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Efforts to counter RUF advances and fix forces. DeepState reports map updated. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. UAF General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove and Poddubnoye (tactical setbacks). UAF DSV (Air Assault Forces) video shows effective drone strikes on RUF positions, indicating continued readiness and offensive drone capabilities. UAF leadership (Oleg Synegubov, Mayor Terekhov) providing immediate updates on Kharkiv attacks, demonstrating transparency and response posture. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine videos show aftermath of drone attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating ongoing response. General Staff reports daily clashes across the frontlines, including successful repelling of 24 assaults in Sumy direction. Sternenko posts FPV drone video of "Hornets of Dovbush" (UAF unit) continuing to restrain the enemy in Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued active defense. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of South Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn confirming Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) was NOT occupied. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia by a drunk driver, a non-combat fatality affecting border security posture. LATEST: UAF General Staff provides multiple photo messages of new recruits of the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade undergoing basic military training, indicating continued efforts to maintain force posture and readiness through sustained recruitment and training programs. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv from two attacks today, indicating significant strain on emergency services and civilian readiness. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne, indicating a proactive posture in contested areas. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports on the rising number of injured in Kharkiv (33), indicating strain on emergency services. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and active firefighting, indicating continued readiness of emergency services. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Air Defense: UAF neutralized 75 RUF UAVs as of 070635Z (75/101 total hostile UAVs as of 070636Z), and successfully engaged Shaheds over Kyiv and Odesa. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shaheds. Air Force confirms continued interception. Sternenko video confirms 4 RUF UAVs shot down. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides total "mopeds" count. Air Force reports active tracking and response. ASTRA video messages confirm Kyiv under UAV attack. Sternenko reports morning drone attacks on Krasnozavodsk (UAF deep strike capability). KMVA reports ballistic threat lifted. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports active AD despite fatality. RBC-Ukraine reports 75/101 drones and 0/4 missiles neutralized. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful downing of UAVs over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports ballistic missile threat lifted from south. Despite successful interceptions, RUF UAVs continue to impact residential areas in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, highlighting AD challenges against saturation. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 RUF hits on Kharkiv, confirming some drones penetrated AD. Air Force reports ballistic missile threat from north-western direction for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports widespread air raid alerts. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, indicating challenges against concentrated drone attacks despite AD efforts. LATEST: Air Force of Ukraine reports the "all clear" for ballistic missile threats. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, indicating continued challenges for UAF AD. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Drone Operations: UAF continues effective use of drones for reconnaissance and precision strikes (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators in Sumy active and soliciting equipment. Sternenko FPV drone footage, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Butusov Plus videos confirm successful strikes. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped RUF groups near Torske. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of repelled RUF moto-assault. DeepState video of 152mm artillery destruction. Butusov Plus highlights past night drone successes. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. UAF deep strikes on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant confirmed. Alexey Biloshitsky (Brigade Khizhak) video showcases effective June drone strikes in Toretsk sector. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit, implying a successful RUF strike but also highlighting that UAF assets were not the target. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. Sternenko posts FPV drone video showing military vehicles in Pokrovsk direction, implying continued UAF drone effectiveness. LATEST: Butusov Plus posts a video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle, which, while a setback for the vehicle, indicates active UAF operations and ability to operate in contested drone environments. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days, indicating continued significant UAF drone capabilities sustained by public support. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts a video showing two UAF drone operators targeting a Russian assault aircraft, demonstrating high-end UAF drone capabilities against RUF aviation. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo, which may enhance UAF anti-surface capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Challenges: Repeated targeting of TCCs by RUF. Internal discourse on conscription effectiveness and readiness of some newly conscripted personnel (TRO). Claimed capture of UAF 80th ODShBr serviceman (personnel management/evasion issues). RUF attempts to exploit public apprehension (female mobilization). TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation (MEDEVAC/logistical challenges). Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage (27 injured in Kharkiv) straining medical/emergency services. Fatality and extensive damage in Odesa and Sumy, stressing emergency response. Damaged heating main in Kyiv (civilian services). Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. At least 10 people injured in Zaporizhzhia drone attack, with destruction, increasing strain on emergency services. Kharkiv residential areas hit, increasing civilian casualties. Vinnytsia TCC suspension impacts mobilization efforts. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, further stressing emergency services. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured from enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia, with photos showing damaged buildings, increasing the strain on emergency services. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia by a drunk driver; a non-combat personnel loss impacting security. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, citing Mayor Terekhov, significantly increasing the challenge for medical and emergency services. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Zaporizhzhia, citing the OMA. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two residents killed in Sumy Oblast by strike UAV, highlighting continued civilian fatalities. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv from two attacks today, indicating a significant and ongoing challenge for medical and emergency services. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, highlighting internal corruption as a significant setback for UAF capabilities. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official who allegedly stole 90 million UAH by supplying defective anti-tank weapons to the UAF, reinforcing internal challenges. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site presents a significant logistical challenge. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating a challenge to maintain essential services. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, indicating a severely strained emergency response. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video showing the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, highlighting the ongoing strain on emergency services. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia, highlighting the continued challenge of managing POW issues. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, emphasizing the challenges faced by civilians in conflict zones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 RUF attacks, eliminating 147 RUF personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Successful neutralization of 75 RUF UAVs (75/101 total) as of 070636Z, and a high percentage of incoming UAVs over Kyiv and Odesa. Sternenko video confirms 4 RUF UAVs shot down. Ballistic threat in Kyiv lifted. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports active AD despite fatality. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful downing of UAVs over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes on RUF positions. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, demonstrating successful deep strike capability. General Staff reports 24 Russian army assaults repelled in Sumy direction. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) was NOT occupied by enemy, citing South Defense Forces spokesperson. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson, indicating successful counter-intelligence. LATEST: UAF General Staff providing photo messages of new recruits training for the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade indicates successful ongoing recruitment and training to maintain force strength. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, representing a significant logistical success. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days, indicating successful public fundraising for UAF capabilities. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video showing UAF drone operators targeting a Russian assault aircraft, demonstrating successful UAF drone operations against RUF aviation. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne, serving as a counter-propaganda action and possible tactical presence. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo, demonstrating continued international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF USV attacks on Novorossiysk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone strikes against RUF artillery/logistics (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). FPV drone footage provides evidence. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped RUF groups near Torske. DeepState destroyed RUF 152mm artillery. Past UAF night drone successes (Avdiivka). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. UAF deep strikes on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant confirmed. Alexey Biloshitsky (Brigade Khizhak) video showcases effective June drone strikes in Toretsk sector. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a university building was hit, implying a successful RUF strike but also highlighting that UAF assets were not the target. DeepState reports UAF aviation destroyed enemy command post northwest of Polohy. Sternenko posts FPV drone video showing military vehicles in Pokrovsk direction, implying continued UAF drone effectiveness. LATEST: Butusov Plus posts a video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle, which, while a setback for the vehicle, indicates active UAF operations and ability to operate in contested drone environments. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone attacks against targets in Leningrad Oblast. Sternenko confirms drone safety concerns in RU. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Secret request" for German weapons, Bild published list. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising success for drone equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Unconfirmed reports of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • DeepState reports map updated. DeepState's geo-location capabilities effectively tracking territorial changes. DeepState's report on Lobkove occupation was contradicted by Operatyvnyi ZSU, indicating a potential error or outdated information in DeepState's initial assessment, which would be a setback for their accuracy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Oleg Vilkul reports situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zvizdets Mangust reports UAF holding positions near Yunakivka and Sadki against elite RUF units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • SBU reports preventing a terrorist act in Zaporizhzhia, arresting FSB agents planning to blow up Azov fighters, indicating successful counter-terrorism operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Setbacks:
  • RUF claimed capture of Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, and Tolstoy (localized territorial losses confirmed by RUF sources, MoD Russia video, Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights). General Staff reports continued clashes and implies some tactical retreats. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF, confirming additional territorial losses. LATEST: Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) and Dnevnik Desantnika videos confirm the liberation of Dachne and Bessalovka, representing confirmed territorial setbacks. NEW: MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka and Dachnoe, representing continued confirmed territorial setbacks. Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) video shows a RUF military vehicle convoy with damaged vehicles, implying attritional setbacks for RUF, but also showing their continued movement capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Continued RUF pressure on Chasiv Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from persistent RUF drone, missile, and glide bomb attacks (27 injured in Kharkiv, 1 killed in Odesa, 2 killed/2 injured in Sumy). Damage to TCCs, residential buildings, heating main in Kyiv. "Gerbera" decoy drone used as strike drone. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows smoke and fires in Sumy. Photos/videos confirm damage and casualties. Kharkiv residential areas hit, multiple explosions. Zaporizhzhia drone attack causes destruction and at least 10 injured. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Vinnytsia TCC suspending operations due to perceived threat. Civilian university building hit in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 11 injured in Kharkiv. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, confirming concentrated attacks causing damage. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured from enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia, with photos showing damaged buildings, confirming significant civilian impact. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia by a drunk driver; a non-combat personnel loss impacting security. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, citing Mayor Terekhov, indicating a significant increase in casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two residents of Sumy Oblast killed by strike UAV, representing continued civilian fatalities. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv from two attacks today, indicating a significant increase in casualties and a major civilian setback. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area confirms this. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv, reinforcing the impact. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site is a significant setback. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, confirming infrastructure damage. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, representing a further increase in casualties and a significant civilian setback. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and active firefighting, confirming continued infrastructure damage. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, confirming continued civilian infrastructure damage. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, implying continued civilian impact in Donetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, confirming significant civilian casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reported UAF drone attack on civilian vehicle in Belgorod Oblast (RUF reporting). Dnevnik Desantnika reports UAF drone strike on civilian woman in Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports a participant of the war in Ukraine killed his wife and daughter in Vladikavkaz. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF AD claimed destruction of 3 UAVs over Tver, 1 over Novgorod, successful engagement by 35th Combined Arms Army. TASS reports several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Colonelcassad provides photos of downed drone. TASS reports 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Lipetsk Governor reports massive attack repelled. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos/video of St. Petersburg airport indicating flight disruptions due to drone threat, implying some UAF drone activity has impacted Russian internal systems, but also RUF AD claimed successful interception. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure (unverified but significant if true). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ongoing drone threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports estimated airline damages of 20 billion rubles due to flight disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics" (potential procurement challenges). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF claims of destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF claims UAF losses due to fatigue and low morale (propaganda). CONFIDENCE: LOW.
  • Khabarovsk Krai Police report two women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports queue of 950 cars on Crimean Bridge. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports 4/101 missiles neutralized by UAF AD (suggests some missiles successfully impacted). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Rubizh National Guard Brigade reports destroyed property and equipment, requiring fundraising. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles, indicating internal morale/resource issues for some former RUF personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF General Staff reports ~1270 drones and 39 missiles successfully impacted Ukraine last week. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle, representing a tactical setback and equipment loss for UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • NEW: Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, highlighting internal corruption as a significant setback for UAF capabilities. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official who allegedly stole 90 million UAH by supplying defective anti-tank weapons to the UAF, reinforcing this internal setback. NEW: WarGonzo posts video showing a destroyed or disabled tank, indicating a setback for UAF armored capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Resource Requirements: Continued need for robust air defense systems (ballistic missile interception). Enhanced counter-battery and ISR capabilities for Chasiv Yar. Additional protective equipment and medical supplies for frontline units. Specific requests for generators, drone spare parts, binoculars, drone control goggles (UAF 21st OMBr). Thermal imagers for night vision. Accelerated German weapons delivery. Investment in Ukrainian drones, AI, cyber defense. Humanitarian aid for civilian casualties and infrastructure repair (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kyiv). Funds for equipment/property restoration for Rubizh National Guard Brigade. Increased civilian casualties in Kharkiv (current attacks) and Zaporizhzhia (at least 10 injured) requiring immediate humanitarian/medical assistance and continued civilian infrastructure repair resources. Additional security measures for TCCs in response to targeting. Ukrainian list of desired German weapons is for billions of euros. Immediate medical assistance for 11 injured in Zaporizhzhia and 7 injured in Kharkiv will strain medical resources. LATEST: RBC-Ukraine reports that the 1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, is fundraising for a pickup truck, indicating a specific resource requirement for a frontline unit. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, demonstrating the continued push for logistical innovation. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days, indicating continued resource requirements for drones and public support to meet them. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo, indicating a new type of resource being provided. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, significantly increasing the need for medical resources. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia, highlighting the need for resources related to POW support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Constraints: Degradation of GLOCs into Chasiv Yar. Challenges in rapidly integrating and training new conscripts (TRO units). Alleged internal RUF abuses (potential for UAF exploitation). TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation (MEDEVAC/logistical challenges). Increase in civilian casualties (27 injured in Kharkiv) straining medical/emergency services. Fatality and extensive damage in Odesa and Sumy, stressing emergency response. Kyiv hot water outage due to infrastructure damage. Su-34 bombardier loss (potential constraint on RUF air ops). Vinnytsia TCC suspension indicates a constraint on current mobilization operations due to security concerns. Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles, suggesting an economic constraint for some former RUF personnel. RBK-Ukraina reports a border guard killed at a checkpoint in Zakarpattia by a drunk driver; a non-combat casualty impacting local checkpoint personnel and potentially morale. LATEST: Butusov Plus posts video of an enemy drone hitting a special forces vehicle, highlighting the threat to personnel and equipment and the resulting operational constraint. NEW: Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, highlighting internal corruption as a constraint on UAF resource effectiveness. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms the exposure of an ex-Ministry of Defense official who allegedly stole 90 million UAH by supplying defective anti-tank weapons to the UAF, reinforcing this internal constraint. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site is a significant logistical constraint. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, increasing the strain on medical resources and potentially limiting their capacity. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing the chaotic and damaged interior of a residential area in Komsomolskoye, implying resource constraints for civilian living conditions in conflict zones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF:

  • Hero Worship: Extensive propaganda around Mikhail Gudkov, Putin's attendance at "All for Victory!" forum, signing guitar. Igor Artamonov video. Dnevnik Desantnika aims to foster community/stability. Colonelcassad's interview promoting counter-drone training. "Moments of the SVO" photo messages. "Airborne brotherhood, family" photo. Soldiers building chapel. Neck protection on body armor. Basurin o glavnom historical narratives. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo. WarGonzo frontline summaries. Two Mayors video of 61st Marine Brigade thanking supporters, showing medical kit preparation (humanitarian appeal, soldier care). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ publishes message about new benefits for combat veterans, aimed at boosting morale/recruitment. Voenkor Kotenok video shows Russian soldiers expressing support for a foundation supporting "Special Military Operation Participants," for morale-boosting. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Here's how 10 years passed" (vague, potentially related to conflict duration or personal endurance). Alex Parker Returns posts photo of bathroom with caption "More than 1 million ideas how to furnish your home" (civilian distraction/normalization). LATEST: TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years, which could be spun as a positive social development. NEW: Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon in St. Petersburg, with commentary about his front-line experiences, aimed at promoting heroism and sacrifice. MoD Russia posts an image of medals and ribbons, a general promotional graphic. WarGonzo posts a video related to Zakhar Prilepin and Russian culture, serving as a cultural propaganda piece. NEW: Basurin o главном posts a political cartoon promoting the "reincarnation of white helmets," a disinformation narrative aimed at discrediting aid organizations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Narrative Control: Claims of "liberation" (Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, Tolstoy, Zirka, Dachne, Bessalovka), exaggerated UAF losses (120 UAVs, 48 UAVs in 5 hours, 75/101 UAVs, 0/4 missiles shot down, 75 UAVs shot down, ~1245 personnel losses), RUF claims of destroying 31st UAF Brigade manpower and foreign mercenaries. Rosaviatsia vs. ASTRA/TASS on airport disruptions. Operation Z portrays UAF as targeting civilians. "Voenkor Kotenok" video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Claims Kupyansk encirclement. MoD Russia video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Operation Z on "fierce battles" near Pokrovsk. TASS reports Pushilin's claims of encircling Krasnoarmeysk. Colonelcassad photos of Russian flags in Poddubnoye. Operation Z on Ukraine "sliding towards authoritarianism." Rybar's "Chronicle of the special military operation." Rybar's tactical analysis/map of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd. Operation Z via Rus Vesna uses ISW assessment on Pokrovsk encirclement. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk battle on roads. Alex Parker Returns photo message hints at internal criticism. TASS uses The Economist to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership. TASS claims 4,000 UAF losses (exaggerated). TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. TASS claims UAF suffering losses due to fatigue/low morale. TASS claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. TASS/RBC-Ukraine reporting on Ursula von der Leyen no confidence vote. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. WarGonzo tactical maps. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot for news. Poddubny reports Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" toward negotiations, framing Ukraine as unwilling to pursue peace and implying future proposals will be worse. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory, aimed at exaggerating AD success. RUF claims of "Geranium" strikes in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration further control narrative of successful strikes. RUF claims Ilsky Oil Refinery undamaged after UAV attack (Operatyvnyi ZSU), attempting to downplay UAF deep strike effectiveness. Mash na Donbashe video of civilian activity in Melekino (occupied territory) aims to project normalcy. TASS video shows a soldier (callsign Luna) claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering without engaging in combat, aimed at degrading UAF morale. Basurin o главном video shows local resident claiming atrocities/war crimes by UAF. Alex Parker Returns video states "Geraniums" are "weapon of victory." Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, highlighting US vulnerability. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk) and Bessalovka (Sumy), and claims ~1245 UAF personnel losses, aiming to demonstrate RUF success and UAF degradation. Rybar claims Poland closing border with Germany (internal EU discord). TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen, using aggressive rhetoric to project power and internal unity against Western leaders. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, controlling the narrative by presenting these as legitimate military targets. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, which is a narrative aimed at reducing perceived external threats from Russia. TASS reports Lavrov's statements on peace agreement terms, setting a maximalist narrative for future negotiations. Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground" continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure," which is disinformation aimed at portraying internal Ukrainian resistance against their own government. NEW: Poddubny reports that the Russian army liberated Bessalovka and Dachnoe, aiming to control the narrative of territorial gains. MoD Russia confirms the liberation of Dachnoye and Bessalovka, reinforcing this narrative. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov's statement about "denazification and demilitarization" as peace terms, indicating the maximalist Russian narrative for conflict resolution. ASTRA posts video claiming First Channel cut out mention of Ukraine from old show, indicating RUF censorship for narrative control. Colonelcassad posts about the Lenin bill, indicating a focus on ideological narratives. WarGonzo posts a video related to Zakhar Prilepin promoting Russian culture, serving as a cultural narrative control piece. NEW: Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemzet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine, including the inclusion of occupied territories (Crimea, Sevastopol, DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts), demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, and return of illegally arrested Russian assets. This is a significant piece of narrative control. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks," which serves as a domestic narrative of external threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TCC Targeting: RUF sources frame strikes on TCCs as "saving Ukrainian population." Colonelcassad's video on "man-catcher lair" (TCC). NгП раZVедка states TCCs are "hunted." Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights explicitly states RUF drones are attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Vinnytsia Oblast TCC has suspended operations, directly impacting mobilization. Land Forces of Ukraine confirmed that RUF attacked Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia TCCs. RBC-Ukraine confirms TCCs were targets. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, stating UAF TCCs are relocating and that "ordinary Ukrainians" support this, framing it as a "saving mission." LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs over the past day, explicitly confirming the targeting strategy. NEW: Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly encourages civilians to report TCC locations in Kharkiv for further strikes, indicating a direct information operation to facilitate TCC targeting. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs, reinforcing this narrative. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, reinforcing this narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Domestic Focus: Putin's rhetoric/awards. BRICS declaration condemns sanctions, infrastructure attacks. Lavrov meetings. TASS reports Trump's tariffs on BRICS countries. Colonelcassad video of Russian-Iranian negotiations. TASS reports Trump on Gaza ceasefire. RDIF head on "Global South." TASS reports new law against fraudsters. Alex Parker Returns on "hunting Tajiks." TASS quotes Lavrov on US debt. TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. TASS reports social bill for children. Prilepin video on survival. Khabarovsk Police recruitment. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery from "Electroautomatics." TASS reports online scams. TASS reports animal welfare bill. Dnevnik Desantnika video of chapel. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up at race (internal civilian distraction). TASS reports new bill in State Duma to exempt large families from toll road fees (social support narrative). TASS reports new bill in State Duma to include period of care for each child up to 1.5 years in insurance record (social support/demographic policy). TASS reports Interior Ministry claims fraudsters use new tricks to install viruses on phones (domestic security concern). Colonelcassad reports former Kursk Governor under investigation for large-scale theft (anti-corruption narrative). Khabarovsk Police posts photo for recruitment (internal stability/law enforcement strength). News of Moscow reports incident at metro station in Moscow (civilian distraction). Dmitry Medvedev's channel posts cryptic message with emojis, potentially a new propaganda initiative, signaling new forms of engagement. TASS reports on Spain's running of the bulls (civilian distraction). TASS reports committee of State Duma approved increase of fines up to 1 million rubles for imposing additional goods/services on consumers. TASS reports Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. News of Moscow reports >1 million children born in Russia in 2025 (demographic success narrative). TASS reports Ministry of Education working on new teacher payment system to increase salaries. TASS reports on Typhoon "Danas" in Taiwan as a distraction. Alex Parker Returns posts photo of a bathroom with caption "More than 1 million ideas how to furnish your home" (civilian distraction/normalization). Basurin o главном posts "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'" for news agenda management (internal media focus). Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts message about hating crypto traders (internal social commentary). News of Moscow posts photo "Vitamin C rejuvenates skin from the inside." LATEST: TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years, indicating a focus on domestic educational policies. NEW: TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including a domestic focus on Russia's economic and social development. News of Moscow reports network outages for MTS, which could impact command, control, and logistics if prolonged. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, reflecting domestic security operations. News of Moscow posts a photo message featuring "Othello" promoting weekend plans, serving as a civilian distraction. Colonelcassad posts about a bill to perpetuate Lenin's memory, indicating a focus on domestic political and ideological narratives. NEW: TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, indicating a domestic focus on internal legal issues. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating a domestic focus on anti-corruption efforts. News of Moscow posts photo messages promoting "Centers for Women's Health," serving as a domestic distraction and promoting social welfare initiatives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-UAV Narrative: MoD Russia footage of drone repair/modernization. Alex Parker Returns video on "netted the flying Khokhol." Colonelcassad claims 50 UAF reconnaissance drones shot down. Colonelcassad videos show destruction of UAF mortar positions. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for "Mavics." Colonelcassad video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Colonelcassad interview promoting counter-drone training. TASS video claims destruction of UAF shelters. Colonelcassad video on KVN drones. TASS video claims RUF "South" group destroyed two UAF ground robotic systems. Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. TASS claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Lipetsk Governor reports massive attack repelled. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video with telemetry. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Rybar's video emphasizes intelligence for counter-UAV. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV launch sites. Operation Z video shows widespread drone attacks on enemy across directions. Operation Z claims 8 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Moscow Oblast by RUF AD. Voenkor Kotenok reports 93 drones shot down overnight over Russian territory, amplifying AD success. Two Mayors reports on border area drone attacks. MoD Russia video shows drone pilots demonstrating "great results" with confirmed hits on armored vehicles/equipment, bolstering AD effectiveness narrative. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day, reinforcing the narrative of successful counter-UAV operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • POW Exploitation: Video of captured UAF serviceman Kostenko. TASS video of BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets. TASS video of Prilepin claiming survival. TASS video shows a soldier (callsign Luna) claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering without engaging in combat, aimed at demoralizing UAF and bolstering RUF image. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles comprising voluntary surrender information, confirming continued POW exploitation in psyops. LATEST: TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF, directly aimed at exploiting UAF morale and promoting the idea of collapse. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Public Appeals for Equipment: "Военкоры Русской Весны" appeal for thermal imagers. Two Mayors fundraising for "stormtroopers." ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for drones. Two Majors (Dva Mayora) fundraising for "stormtroopers" in Kostiantynivka direction. Colonelcassad launches a new fundraiser for the "Summer Campaign 2025." NEW: Two Mayora posts a photo message of a sender having sent knives to Ivan from Tula, which is a minor, civilian-level example of support for military-affiliated individuals, aimed at demonstrating public engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Realities of Freedom in Ukraine" Narrative: Colonelcassad videos attempting to portray Ukrainian mobilization negatively ("female mobilization"). Poddubny message frames Kyiv's stance on negotiations as unreasonable, implying a lack of desire for peace. Basurin o главном attempts to discredit Ukrainian aid efforts by claiming Zelenskyy's company profits from it. Basurin o главном video shows local resident claiming atrocities by UAF during occupation. LATEST: Basurin o главном shares a video claiming "Ukrainian underground continues to burn down Zelensky regime infrastructure," framing it as resistance against the Ukrainian government. TASS reports Lavrov's statement on peace terms which includes "demilitarization" and "denazification," portraying Ukraine as needing fundamental societal change. NEW: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov's statement about "denazification and demilitarization" as peace terms, reinforcing the narrative that Ukraine needs fundamental change. Colonelcassad posts "Important information for Ukrainians who do not want to become victims of man-catchers" with a video about TCCs, directly targeting Ukrainian conscription efforts and portraying Ukrainian officials as "man-catchers" to dissuade mobilization. NEW: Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged residential area under Starobeshevo, portraying poor living conditions and indirectly blaming Ukrainian forces for civilian suffering, aligning with the "realities of freedom" narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • NATO Expansion Threat: Dnevnik Десантника claims Azerbaijan wants largest NATO base near Russia. NEW: Janus Putkonen (Finnish source, often pro-Russian) states that "transatlanticists" have eagerly awaited US occupation of Finland, claiming the constitution has been "thrown out" and there's a rush to NATO and DCA occupation agreements, with Russia provoked to make the Baltic Sea a zone of military operations and Finland a "buffer state," indicating continued propaganda against NATO expansion. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Terror Tactics" Narrative: Rybar video "Tactics of Terror" (vague, aims to frame UAF). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • "All Inclusive - for Ukraine" Narrative: Two Mayors message aims to portray Ukraine as reliant on external aid. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • UAF Morale Exploitation: TASS reports on UAF 1st Tank Brigade's alleged complaints. TASS reports UAF suffering from fatigue/low morale. Dnevnik Десантника claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. TASS video shows a soldier (callsign Luna) claiming Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly surrendering without engaging in combat, aimed at degrading UAF morale. LATEST: TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel are retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing MoD RF, which directly exploits UAF morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Nazi Symbolism" Narrative: Operation Z reports on Ukrainian flag with "Nazi symbolism" and "Azov Nazis" in Germany. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Oreshnik" Failure Narrative: Alex Parker Returns report on "Oreshnik" failure framed as "new and experimental." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Human Skull" Imagery: Alex Parker Returns photo titled "Blue helmet" (shock value, dehumanization). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Russian Distractions: "Новости Москвы" on "war on hookah bars." TASS reports Trump's party. TASS reports social bill for children. TASS on animal welfare. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS on Ursula von der Leyen. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. News of Moscow channel's video on cyclist pile-up (civilian distraction). News of Moscow reports incident at metro station in Moscow, a domestic distraction. TASS reports on Spain's running of the bulls (civilian distraction). TASS reports committee of State Duma approved increase of fines for imposing additional goods/services on consumers. TASS reports Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill for new and increased state duties. News of Moscow reports >1 million children born in Russia in 2025. TASS reports Ministry of Education working on new teacher payment system to increase salaries. TASS reports on Typhoon "Danas" in Taiwan. LATEST: TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years, which could be framed as a positive domestic educational development. NEW: TASS reports Telegram outages, and News of Moscow reports MTS outages, which can be presented as technical issues or external interference, serving as a distraction. Basurin o главном posts a new episode of his program, continuing to engage domestic audience. News of Moscow posts a photo message featuring "Othello" promoting weekend plans, which serves as a civilian distraction. NEW: TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, and Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, serving as domestic distractions focused on crime/justice. News of Moscow posts photo messages promoting "Centers for Women's Health," serving as a domestic distraction and promoting social welfare initiatives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • US Military Aid Concerns for Europe: Operation Z disseminating NYT article claiming Europe fears US will cut off access to military equipment updates. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, aiming to deter further aid. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reward for Ukraine Intelligence: "НгП раZVедка" message about "promised prize" for Kyiv residents providing information for targeting missile warehouses and drone assembly sites. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Middle East Focus: TASS reports Yemeni Houthis claiming rocket strikes on Ben-Gurion airport and Ashkelon power station, diverting attention to other international conflicts. LATEST: Colonelcassad posts video of alleged Houthi missile strike on Israel, reinforcing this narrative. NEW: Rybar posts a photo message captioned "Black Flag over Yemen," which discusses escalation in the Red Sea region, continuing to highlight international conflicts as a distraction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

• UAF:

  • Counter-Narratives: UAF sources actively counter RUF narratives (e.g., child killed, attacking rescuers). Videos showing successful UAF strikes. Butusov Plus video on RUF torture. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of repelled moto-assault. Sternenko/ASTRA reports on "Gerbera" strike. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of drone strike. DeepState video of artillery destruction. Butusov Plus highlights past night drone successes. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on Kyiv drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports Kharkiv casualties. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded. Oleg Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih controlled. RBC-Ukraine reports 27 injured in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video shows Shahed impact in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Odesa fatality. ASTRA reports Sumy casualties. ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine photos/videos of Kharkiv aftermath. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Oleg Synegubov's photos of damaged buildings/casualties in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms Odesa destruction. Shtirlits posts on RUF losses. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. DSNS images from Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Odesa fatality despite AD. Butusov Plus provides obituary for Su-34 bombardier. Operatyvnyi ZSU and General Staff of UAF emphasize high number of RUF UAVs neutralized (75/101). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms 75/101 RUF UAVs neutralized. Oleg Synegubov provides video of Kharkiv aftermath, validating RUF impact. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery, directly countering RUF claims of no damage. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes, bolstering counter-offensive narrative. Oleg Synegubov reports on Kharkiv explosions, reinforcing RUF attacks on civilians. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded and destruction from drone attack, confirming continued combined attacks against urban centers. Sternenko reports on Zaporizhzhia casualties, furthering transparency. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant, countering RUF narrative of AD success. RBC-Ukraine reports on Kharkiv explosions and casualties. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports SBU preventing a terrorist act in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting counter-intelligence successes. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the attack and damage. General Staff reports daily clashes across front lines. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts video of smoke rising from Kharkiv, reinforcing RUF impact. RBK-Ukraina reports 6 Shaheds attacked Kharkiv, increasing urgency. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, including one with "Shitty Kharkiv" text, indicating negative public sentiment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms the significant impact on Kharkiv civilians. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured, highlighting the human cost. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson, highlighting UAF counter-intelligence success. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, citing Mayor Terekhov, directly countering RUF attempts to downplay damage and casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, confirming civilian casualties. Shef Hayabusa posts photos depicting the aftermath of attacks on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, reinforcing the human cost. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv from two attacks today, providing a clear counter-narrative to RUF claims of military targeting. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area, with @KHARKIV_1654 watermark, likely UAF counter-propaganda. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv, showing the impact of strikes. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, countering narratives of perfect military efficiency and highlighting internal accountability. Operatyvnyi ZSU (using OGP content) confirms this, strengthening the transparency narrative. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts video of UAF drone operators targeting Russian assault aircraft, showcasing UAF capabilities. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne, serving as a counter-propaganda piece to RUF claims of liberation. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a fire at an ammunition storage site in Mykolaiv Oblast, demonstrating transparency in reporting setbacks. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF striking energy and gas facilities in Sumy, confirming RUF targeting. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, serving as a counter-narrative to RUF claims of military targeting. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and active firefighting, confirming RUF attacks on civilian infrastructure. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, countering RUF narratives of limited civilian impact. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia, serving as a counter-narrative to RUF POW exploitation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Transparency/Call for Aid: Public calls for donations (21st OMBr drones, Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 1st Mech Bat, 3rd Assault Brigade). Appeals to "send Russians to hell." Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising. "KiberBoroshno" audience engagement. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations. RBC-Ukraine reports Sybiha's call for investment. Sternenko links attacks to fundraising. Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes youth mental health initiative ("Non-Okay, but Honest") as a form of societal resilience and internal support. Coordination Staff for POWs in Kharkiv held an event "Don't be silent. Captivity kills" in support of POWs and missing defenders. Butusov Plus posts photo message about Pavel Gubarev (RUF serviceman) reporting on Russian losses, aiming to highlight internal RUF dissent and losses. LATEST: STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, demonstrating transparency and innovation in logistics. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days thanks to public support, directly linking public aid to military capabilities. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, which can be highlighted as continued international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Highlighting Russian Difficulties: UAF sources highlight Russian airport cancellations, naval issues. Civilian video of crowded Sheremetyevo. Unconfirmed reports of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. RBC-Ukraine on hundreds of flights cancelled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms cancellations. Shef Hayabusa videos of crowded airports. TASS reports airline losses. "Новости Москвы" video on "transport collapse." Operatyvnyi ZSU quotes Trump on aid. RBC-Ukraine graphic "News for this night." Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier. RBC-Ukraine reports 20 billion rubles in airline losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU also reports airline losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery, implying Russian vulnerabilities. Kotsnews reports on Sheremetyevo issues, confirming difficulties. Sever.Realii warns of ease of civilian drone assembly. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport indicating flight disruptions due to drone threat, further highlighting Russian internal difficulties. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi, reinforcing this narrative. LATEST: TASS video shows flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions lifted, but previous reports still highlight the scale of disruption, which UAF can continue to leverage. NEW: News of Moscow posts photo messages with caption "❗️Slightly in Moscow again," showing network outages for MTS mobile operator, highlighting internal Russian infrastructure difficulties. TASS reports Telegram outages, which can also be highlighted. ASTRA posts video claiming First Channel cut out mention of Ukraine from old show, highlighting Russian censorship. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka, highlighting a significant internal Russian difficulty. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • International Support Publicity: RBC-Ukraine on "secret request" for German weapons. Bild published list. RBC-Ukraine on Sybiha's call for investment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights quotes NATO SecGen Ruttte. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will meet Zelenskyy in Rome for Ukraine reconstruction conference, signaling continued high-level US engagement. Operation Z shares articles confirming Ukraine's German wish list. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, potentially aiming to reduce international support for Ukraine by highlighting US stock depletion. LATEST: RBC-Ukraine reports on candidates for US Ambassador, indicating UAF's continued focus on key diplomatic relations to secure international support. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Trump discussing the replacement of Ukraine's ambassador to the USA, highlighting high-level diplomatic engagement regarding international support. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, potentially increasing the effectiveness of international military aid. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days thanks to public support, highlighting continued public engagement in aid efforts. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo, highlighting continued international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Economic Competition Narrative: Operatyvnyi ZSU on China's ambition to control global manufacturing. Two Mayors reports on China expanding its presence in high-tech arms markets (Egypt, Iran, Uzbekistan), indicating a broader economic/geopolitical shift. Rybar post "America's Party" with Elon Musk illustration. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Positive National Imagery: Operatyvnyi ZSU video of Dnipro river. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos about daily moments of silence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video highlights youth initiatives. LATEST: UAF General Staff providing photo messages of new recruits training for the 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Brigade, reinforcing a positive image of national strength and readiness. NEW: Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon in St. Petersburg, with commentary about his front-line experiences, aimed at promoting heroism and sacrifice for the Russian side, which UAF can attempt to counter with its own narratives of resilience. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne, projecting a positive national image of resilience and territorial claim. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Honoring Fallen Defenders: KMVA posts photos honoring fallen defenders. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: Civilian casualties and destruction cause fear/distress. Public celebrations and aid appeals indicate resilience/support for military. Internal debate on conscription methods. Oleg Vilkul's briefing aims to reassure public. Nikolaevskiy Vanek's successful fundraiser demonstrates strong public engagement. RBC-Ukraine reports rising death toll in Bitytsia. Alerts in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa cause fear. New alerts in Kyiv cause anxiety. Increasing casualties in Kharkiv (27 injured) cause significant fear/distress. Two men wounded in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih controlled (reassurance). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video on Shahed impact in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Odesa fatality. ASTRA reports Sumy casualties. ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine photos/videos of Kharkiv aftermath. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Oleg Synegubov's photos of damaged buildings/casualties in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms Odesa destruction. Shtirlits posts on RUF losses. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. DSNS images from Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Odesa fatality despite AD. Butusov Plus provides obituary for Su-34 bombardier. Operatyvnyi ZSU and General Staff of UAF emphasize high number of RUF UAVs neutralized (75/101). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms 75/101 RUF UAVs neutralized. Oleg Synegubov provides video of Kharkiv aftermath, validating RUF impact. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports UAV debris attacked Ilsky Oil Refinery, directly countering RUF claims of no damage. UAF DSV video shows effective drone strikes, bolstering counter-offensive narrative. Oleg Synegubov reports on Kharkiv explosions, reinforcing RUF attacks on civilians. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded and destruction from drone attack, confirming continued combined attacks against urban centers. Sternenko reports on Zaporizhzhia casualties, furthering transparency. ASTRA confirms UAF attack on Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant, countering RUF narrative of AD success. RBC-Ukraine reports on Kharkiv explosions and casualties. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports SBU preventing a terrorist act in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting counter-intelligence successes. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video provides operational updates on the attack and damage. General Staff reports daily clashes across front lines. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts video of smoke rising from Kharkiv cityscape and explosions in Kharkiv, reinforcing the public's direct experience of attacks. RBK-Ukraina reports 6 Shaheds attacked Kharkiv, increasing urgency. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, including one with "Shitty Kharkiv" text, indicating negative public sentiment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms the significant impact on Kharkiv civilians. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured, highlighting the human cost. SBU reports detaining an FSB agent who corrected shelling of Kherson, highlighting UAF counter-intelligence success. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, indicating heightened distress. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast, underscoring the ongoing threat to civilian lives. Shef Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, further impacting morale by showing the destruction. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv from two attacks today, indicating high public distress. Dnevnik Desantnika video showing explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area reinforces the direct impact on civilians and may fuel public anxiety. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv, which can induce fear and reinforce RUF propaganda. Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, and Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms this, which could negatively impact public trust in the military's supply chain and anti-corruption efforts. Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site could also impact public morale regarding defense capabilities. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, leading to public concern about essential services. NEW: Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, confirming increased public distress. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and active firefighting, reinforcing public fear and distress. Rybar posts video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, reinforcing public fear. Mash na Donbashe posts a video showing a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, illustrating the civilian impact of the conflict and potentially affecting local morale. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, further contributing to public distress. Coordination Staff for POWs posts multiple photo messages indicating a meeting with families of servicemen held captive in Russia, reflecting significant public concern and emotional strain related to POWs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Public: Putin's rhetoric/awards aim to consolidate support. Domestic security incidents and airport disruptions could cause unease. ASTRA reports widespread flight cancellations. TASS reports 20 billion rubles in airline damages. Internal criticism of Gudkov's death. ASTRA reports civilian violence (Novosibirsk). Butusov Plus video alleges torture/abuse (impact on morale). Trump's tariffs (economic anxiety). Alex Parker Returns video "hunting Tajiks" (frustration with ethnic tensions). TASS reports additional rail cars. RBC-Ukraine reports hundreds of flights cancelled. News of Moscow channel's video (domestic focus). Shef Hayabusa videos of crowded airports. Alex Parker Returns video/photo on "hunting Tajiks." ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for military equipment. Colonelcassad screenshot "truth starts to come out!" Alex Parker Returns photo message "They started to guess something." Operation Z on "Azov Nazis" in Germany. TASS reports bill for children. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery from "Electroautomatics." TASS reports online scams. "Новости Москвы" highlights "transport collapse." TASS reports animal welfare bill. Dnevnik Десантника video of chapel. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. Igor Artamonov lifting alert levels. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. TASS video of Prilepin. Bryansk Governor reports civilian injured. Dnevnik Десантника reports massive drone attack on Belgorod. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники existence implies need for personnel. Dnevnik Десантника reports train movement restored in Voronezh after UAV debris fell. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up (civilian morale not directly war-related but shows domestic issues). FSB reports on arrests for helping Kyiv via phone scammers indicates internal security focus and public vulnerability. Reports of large-scale theft in Kursk Oblast during fortification construction (Colonelcassad) could impact public trust and morale regarding state efficiency/corruption. UAF drone attacks on Ilsky Oil Refinery and Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Sever.Realii, ASTRA) highlight vulnerability of strategic internal targets, potentially eroding sense of security. TASS reports new bill for toll road fee exemptions and care for children up to 1.5 years aims to improve social sentiment. News of Moscow reports incident at metro station, a domestic issue, could distract public from war. Butusov Plus reports on the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev and his family's financial struggles, which could negatively impact public perception of military service benefits. ASTRA reports a war participant killed his family in Vladikavkaz, impacting public perception of returning soldiers. TASS reports on high numbers of students scoring high on exams (positive domestic news). News of Moscow reports >1 million children born in Russia in 2025. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Here's how 10 years passed" and a photo of a bathroom with caption "More than 1 million ideas how to furnish your home," which could be interpreted as a normalization of current events or a focus on domestic life amidst conflict. Basurin o главном posts "Rating 'Coverage. Response. War Correspondents'," indicating state media control over public discourse. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts about hating crypto traders, a social issue. News of Moscow posts a photo about Vitamin C, a non-military distraction. LATEST: TASS reports that history will not be a mandatory subject on the Unified State Exam for admission to humanitarian universities for 2 years, aiming to shape public sentiment positively regarding education. TASS video shows flights arriving in Sheremetyevo after restrictions lifted, attempting to convey normalcy and effective governance. NEW: TASS reports Telegram outages and News of Moscow reports MTS outages, which could cause public frustration or concern about infrastructure reliability. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, which could be framed as successful internal security, but also highlights ongoing internal resistance/sabotage, potentially increasing public anxiety. Mobilizatsiya | Novosti | Srochniki posts video of a legless veteran participating in a marathon, aiming to boost morale and support for veterans. News of Moscow posts a photo message featuring "Othello" promoting weekend plans, serving as a civilian distraction. Colonelcassad posts about a bill to perpetuate Lenin's memory, which could elicit a range of public reactions depending on political affiliation. WarGonzo posts a video related to Zakhar Prilepin, which may influence public perception of political figures involved in the conflict. NEW: TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, indicating a domestic focus on crime/justice that may affect public trust in legal institutions. TASS reports Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating continued internal corruption issues that may affect public perception of governance. News of Moscow posts photo messages promoting "Centers for Women's Health," serving as a domestic distraction and promoting social welfare initiatives. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks," which could increase public anxiety about internal security. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• International Support: Continued military aid from partners (Germany). EU implementing Ukrainian drone experience. Bild published list of German weapons. RBC-Ukraine reports Sybiha's call for investment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights quotes NATO SecGen Ruttte. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will meet Zelenskyy in Rome for Ukraine reconstruction conference, signaling continued high-level US engagement. Operation Z shares articles confirming Ukraine's German wish list. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, potentially aiming to reduce international support for Ukraine by highlighting US stock depletion. LATEST: RBC-Ukraine reports on candidates for US Ambassador, indicating UAF's continued focus on key diplomatic relations to secure international support. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Trump discussing the replacement of Ukraine's ambassador to the USA, highlighting high-level diplomatic engagement regarding international support. STERNENKO reports the launch of "DOT-Chain Defence," a new digital system to accelerate and simplify arms supply, potentially increasing the effectiveness of international military aid. NEW: Sternenko posts photo messages confirming 715 FPV drones purchased in the last two days thanks to public support, highlighting continued public engagement in aid efforts. Dva Mayora posts a photo message showing Sweden has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine, including a Saab Lightweight Torpedo, demonstrating continued international support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.56): BRICS leaders express hope for "sustainable peaceful settlement" in Ukraine, condemn unilateral sanctions and attacks on Russian infrastructure. Lavrov's meetings with Brazilian and Iranian FMs. TASS reports Trump's tariffs for BRICS-supporting countries. Colonelcassad video of Russian-Iranian negotiations. TASS reports Trump on Gaza ceasefire. RDIF head on "Global South." TASS reports vote of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about tariffs. Poddubny reports Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" toward negotiations, and rejection of Russian terms. Voenkor Kotenok reports Israel announced "Black Flag" operation against Houthis (international security issue). TASS reports Yemeni Houthis claiming rocket strikes on Ben-Gurion airport and Ashkelon power station, indicating continued regional instability which can divert international attention. Rybar reports Poland closing border with Germany (internal EU discord). TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen, reflecting Russian diplomatic efforts to influence Western political discourse. LATEST: Basurin o главном discusses a possible change in the Russian negotiating group, signaling a diplomatic initiative to present flexibility for peace talks. TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, which is a diplomatic statement aimed at managing international perceptions. TASS reports Lavrov stating the terms for a peace agreement, including "demilitarization and denazification," which sets Russia's diplomatic conditions. NEW: TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, who commented on Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory, demonstrating continued diplomatic engagement on conflict-related issues. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports Lavrov's statement about "denazification and demilitarization" as peace terms, indicating Russia's consistent diplomatic position. Rybar posts a photo message captioned "Black Flag over Yemen," discussing the escalation in the Red Sea region, which highlights international issues outside of Ukraine. NEW: Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages, citing Magyar Nemzet, explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement with Ukraine, including the inclusion of occupied territories (Crimea, Sevastopol, DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts), demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, and return of illegally arrested Russian assets. This is a significant diplomatic development. Janus Putkonen's message about Finland and NATO indicates continued Russian diplomatic efforts to counter Western alliances. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Initiative: Proposal by [Actor] for [Action] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.16): India to host BRICS summit in 2026. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Geopolitical Shift: Change in [Type of Support] from [Country] to [Recipient] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.08): Israeli Ambassador Brodsky implies potential reduction in Iranian support for Russia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• US Political Discourse on Ukraine: TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. RBC-Ukraine video asks why Trump not helping Ukraine like Israel. Operation Z disseminating NYT article on Europe fearing US military equipment updates. RBC-Ukraine on Trump's reaction to Musk. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about 10% trade tariffs. RBC-Ukraine reports on US political dynamics regarding a "third party" and Elon Musk's role, indicating continued focus on US internal politics relevant to Ukraine aid. Rybar post on "America's Party" with Elon Musk suggests US internal political intrigue. Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, which feeds into narratives about US commitment to Ukraine. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Trump discussing the replacement of Ukraine's ambassador to the USA, indicating continued high-level US political engagement on Ukraine issues. NEW: TASS reports the US Department of Justice and FBI found no evidence of Epstein blackmailing influential figures, a US domestic political issue that may divert attention. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Eastern Axis: RUF will intensify efforts to secure Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar and establish bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat in Donetsk (thermal drones). KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. Voenkor Kotenok claims "Geranium" drones worked intensively on targets in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight, indicating continued focus on deep strikes in this strategic area to support ground operations. Rybar will likely continue to produce operational maps for the eastern front. Vooin DV video shows RUF drone activity in Voskresenka area. General Staff reports indicate continued clashes across eastern front. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles for psyops. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk), indicating MLCOA for localized territorial gains where opportunities arise. LATEST: Colonelcassad posts an animated map of strikes, supporting MLCOA for continued widespread strikes across Ukraine. TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, suggesting continued RUF pressure and exploitation. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms offensive operations. NEW: Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) photo message of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye from 07.07.25 and drone video of RUF military convoy confirm MLCOA for continued ground movement in the eastern axis, even with some attritional losses. Voenkor Kotenok's Krasnolimansk direction map confirms continued RUF focus on this sector. Dva Mayora video of an artillery strike in Kherson direction confirms MLCOA for continued artillery support to ground operations. NEW: WarGonzo posts video of a drone's perspective of a destroyed or disabled tank, indicating MLCOA for continued RUF drone-based targeting and engagement. WarGonzo posts a video showing a significant explosion in an urban environment, indicating MLCOA for continued high-impact strikes on urban areas. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction, indicating MLCOA for continued RUF offensive efforts in this sector. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, indicating MLCOA for continued ground operations impacting civilian areas in Donetsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Northern Axis: RUF will maintain high-intensity fixing operations around Vovchansk and Lyptsi (glide bombs, localized infantry probes). Expect continued Shahed UAV attacks on Kharkiv. RUF SpN units (Anvar) to conduct reconnaissance/strike missions in border areas. Efforts to encircle Kupyansk focusing on roads. Continue to target UAF transport. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov's photos support MLCOA of continued attacks on northern urban centers. DSNS images reinforce expectation of continued attacks on residential areas. Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Kharkiv; Mayor Terekhov confirms multiple impacts in residential areas, indicating continued direct targeting of Kharkiv urban centers by drones. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits on Kharkiv, reinforcing MLCOA of persistent urban strikes. Colonelcassad reports up to 10 "Geranium" impacts in Kharkiv, confirming persistent attacks. Alex Parker Returns also reports "Geranium" attacks. Voenkor Kotenok reports "more than 10 hits" from "Geraniums" in Kharkiv this morning. General Staff reports clashes in South Slobozhansky direction, indicating ongoing pressure. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, indicating continued MLCOA for concentrated drone attacks. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video reinforces continued drone attacks with casualties. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, reinforcing MLCOA of continued urban targeting. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, requiring immediate medical response in next 1-6 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, requiring continued emergency response in next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa's photos confirm ongoing damage. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video of explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area and Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv confirm MLCOA for continued drone strikes on urban areas. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly indicates MLCOA for continued targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv, leveraging local intelligence. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment, confirming MLCOA for RUF reconnaissance and targeting of UAF formations in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating continued strikes on critical infrastructure in next 1-12 hours. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued offensive actions in the next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, confirming MLCOA for continued drone strikes on urban areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Direction: RUF will likely continue to build up forces and conduct shaping operations (KAB/KAR strikes, localized ground actions) to stretch UAF resources. RUF MoD will continue to claim destruction of UAF targets. Active UAF drone operations will persist. Two Mayors report explosions. RUF will attempt to exploit perceived UAF readiness issues. Claims of UAF redeployment to Sumy as justification for escalation. RUF UAV activity from Sumy into Poltava will continue. Dnevnik Desantnika's claim of UAF assault group redeployment. Expect continued RUF attacks on civilian infrastructure. WarGonzo tactical map for Sumy. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki. Air Force reports high-speed targets and missiles on Sumy, indicating continued ballistic threat. General Staff reports Ukrainian forces repelled 24 Russian army assaults in Sumy direction, suggesting continued RUF probes. TASS reports RF Armed Forces liberated Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, citing MoD RF, indicating MLCOA for continued localized advances. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, indicating MLCOA for continued attacks on civilian targets. Dnevnik Desantnika video confirms localized advances in Sumy. NEW: MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Bessalovka, indicating MLCOA for continued localized territorial gains. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating MLCOA for continued strikes on critical infrastructure. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming MLCOA for continued offensive actions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Deep Strikes: RUF will continue systematic long-range strikes against Ukrainian TCCs, energy infrastructure, and other critical civilian targets. Animated strike map from Colonelcassad. Latest attacks on Kyiv and Odesa. Ballistic missile threats from northeast. RUF will adapt drone types for strike roles ("Gerbera"). Air Force alerts confirm ongoing threat. Development of new advanced missile systems ("Oreshnik"). Air Force reports ongoing Shahed UAV movements. Lipetsk Oblast air danger alert. TASS reports RUF AD success over Voronezh. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down over Novgorod, Tver, Voronezh. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Saratov. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF drone attacks. Air Force reports UAV heading to Odesa. NгП раZVедка messaging confirms RUF intent to target missile warehouses/drone assembly sites in Kyiv. Increasing casualties in Kharkiv. Artillery and drone attacks on Dnipropetrovsk civilian areas. Confirmed civilian casualties in Kharkiv (27 injured) and Odesa (1 killed). Damaged heating main in Kyiv. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms drones attempting to attack TCC buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports drone attack with destruction and casualties, indicating continued systematic deep strikes against civilian infrastructure and key targets. Vinnytsia TCC suspension indicates successful psychological/physical impact of TCC targeting. Confirmed impact on university building in Zaporizhzhia. Land Forces of Ukraine confirm TCC targeting in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from eastern direction. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, reinforcing MLCOA of TCC targeting. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured, reinforcing MLCOA of continued civilian infrastructure targeting. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs, drone assembly enterprises, and storage sites over the past day, confirming MLCOA for continued targeted deep strikes. NEW: Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly indicates MLCOA for continued targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv, leveraging local intelligence for these strikes. Kotsnews posts a video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs. Rybar posts a video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, confirming MLCOA for continued urban strikes. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, showing significant damage and firefighting efforts, confirming MLCOA for continued strikes on urban civilian areas. ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, indicating MLCOA for continued strikes impacting civilian areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Information Operations: RUF will amplify narratives around UAF drone attacks on civilian targets in Russia. Continue to exploit POWs. Leverage BRICS statements. Amplify Trump's tariffs. Exploit female mobilization. Leverage captured Poddubnoye, Dachne, Bessalovka. Push narratives of Ukrainian "authoritarianism" and "Nazi symbolism." Use images of civilian inconvenience. Highlight domestic law enforcement. Promote "Global South" narratives. Leverage UAF tactical successes (Avdiivka night drones) to justify own actions. Exploit command control issues ("truth coming out"). Sow doubt about US military aid. Intensify portrayal of Ukrainian nationalist elements. Incite espionage in Kyiv. Use Electroautomatics legal action to project accountability. Disseminate exaggerated UAF losses. Use psychological operations (leaflets). Focus on domestic issues. Claim UAF fatigue/low morale. Highlight internal issues (scams, Crimean Bridge traffic). Focus on Western political discord. Use Prilepin's claims. Use "DAY in HISTORY" narratives. Project professionalism of special forces. WarGonzo daily summaries. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack on Belgorod. Basurin o главном posts non-military content. Rybar's video on intelligence. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. RUF will leverage occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. RUF will continue to frame Kyiv as unwilling to negotiate for peace. RUF will likely use reports of drone attacks on Ilsky Oil Refinery and Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant to further their narrative of Ukrainian "terrorism." RUF internal corruption investigations (Kursk Governor) will be framed as accountability, to project an image of transparency. RUF will continue to promote social benefits (toll road exemptions, child care) to bolster domestic support. Dmitry Medvedev's new social media style may indicate a shift in engagement tactics. TASS will continue to use narratives of UAF surrenders. Basurin o главном's attempts to discredit Ukrainian aid efforts will continue. RUF will leverage the death of Wagner commander Georgi Kochiev to emphasize the "risks" of service or the lack of support for such units in their broader narrative. RUF will continue to promote domestic economic and social stability (e.g., transport system improvements, education reform). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts WSJ article claiming US needs 4+ years to restore arms sent to Ukraine, consistent with efforts to undermine support. TASS claims RF Armed Forces liberated Dachne and Bessalovka, and claims ~1245 UAF personnel losses, reinforcing MLCOA for exaggerated claims of success. MoD Russia posts video of artillery unit firing leaflet projectiles for psyops. Rybar posts about Poland closing border with Germany, consistent with highlighting Western disunity. TASS posts Medvedev's message on Ursula von der Leyen, using strong rhetoric against Western leaders. LATEST: TASS reports Lavrov stating Russia is not planning to "attack" or "occupy" European countries, consistent with MLCOA for managing international perceptions. TASS reports Lavrov's statements on peace terms, confirming MLCOA for diplomatic messaging. TASS reports on history not being mandatory on the USE, focusing on domestic issues. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity confirms MLCOA for incitement/disinformation. NEW: TASS reports on statements from Dmitry Peskov, including comments on Ukrainian shelling of Russian territory, confirming MLCOA for maintaining narratives of Ukrainian aggression. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, indicating MLCOA for promoting internal security successes and framing internal dissent as Kyiv-backed sabotage. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly uses the term "man-catchers" for Ukrainian TCCs and encourages civilians to report TCC locations, indicating MLCOA for direct information operations to undermine Ukrainian mobilization. Rybar posts about the Red Sea escalation ("Black Flag over Yemen"), indicating MLCOA for diverting attention to other international conflicts. MoD Russia posts promotional image of medals. Colonelcassad's post about the Lenin bill and WarGonzo's video about Prilepin indicate MLCOA for continued domestic political and cultural propaganda. NEW: Operation Z and Dnevnik Desantnika photo messages explicitly state Russia's main demands for a peace agreement, confirming MLCOA for maximalist demands in negotiations. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka due to "possible threats of sabotage and UAV attacks," indicating MLCOA for controlling information flow and fostering a sense of external threat. TASS reports Bastrykin requests permission to open a case against Judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm to health, and Rusagro founder Moshkovich accused of bribing ex-official with a carbine, indicating MLCOA for domestic legal and anti-corruption narratives. News of Moscow posts photo messages promoting "Centers for Women's Health," indicating MLCOA for domestic social welfare propaganda. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Northern Offensive: A coordinated, large-scale offensive by RUF ground forces, possibly leveraging new units observed moving towards Sumy, to open a new major front in Sumy Oblast or launch a renewed thrust directly towards Kharkiv city. Such an offensive would aim to significantly expand the front line and overwhelm UAF's defensive capabilities, potentially forcing a reallocation of critical reserves from other sectors. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Breakthrough at Chasiv Yar: A rapid and decisive RUF breakthrough across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, leading to the collapse of UAF defenses in the immediate area and rapid RUF advance towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka. This would necessitate a major UAF fighting withdrawal and repositioning, with significant loss of terrain and strategic depth. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Chasiv Yar: RUF will likely attempt to consolidate control of Kanal microdistrict and establish bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal within the next 24-72 hours (combined arms, glide bombs). UAF decision point: Evaluate ability to hold Kanal microdistrict vs. planned withdrawal. Reports of "Geranium" drone attacks in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration overnight indicate RUF will continue to use deep strikes to support ground pressure in the East, expected in next 12-24 hours. Rybar will likely continue to produce operational maps for the eastern front. General Staff reports continued clashes around Chasiv Yar. LATEST: KABs on Donetsk Oblast indicate continued aerial bombardment in next 1-12 hours. NEW: ASTRA reports at least 7 killed and 15 injured in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RUF strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Mash na Donbashe posts a video of a damaged building and civilian belongings in Komsomolskoye, suggesting continued combat operations impacting civilian areas in the next 1-12 hours. WarGonzo posts a video showing a significant explosion in an urban environment, indicating high-impact strikes in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv/Sumy: Increased RUF activity in Sumy suggests potential for escalation within the next 72-96 hours. UAF decision point: Determine if RUF intent in Sumy is fixing or preparatory for larger offensive. RUF claims of Kupyansk encirclement will likely be followed by increased pressure in next 24-48 hours. Expect continued Shahed UAV attacks on Kharkiv in the next 12-24 hours. Immediate threat in Kharkiv requires defensive action within the next 1-12 hours given rising casualties (27 injured). Expect continued RUF reconnaissance/attack UAV activity in northern Kharkiv with eastern course. Dnevnik Десантника reports massive drone attack on Belgorod, expecting continued attacks in next 12-24 hours. Oleg Synegubov's photos indicate ongoing impact in Kharkiv. Explosions and drone attacks ongoing in Kharkiv, continued strikes expected in next 1-12 hours. Oleg Synegubov reports 6 hits and 7-11 injured, indicating continued significant impact. General Staff reports clashes in South Slobozhansky direction, indicating ongoing pressure. Air Force reports missile threat on Sumy, indicating continued ballistic threat. RBK-Ukraina reports Kharkiv attacked by 6 Shaheds within 10 minutes, indicating continued MLCOA for concentrated drone attacks. Oleg Synegubov reports 7 injured in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video reinforces continued drone attacks with casualties. Dva Mayora posts videos of Kharkiv, reinforcing MLCOA of continued urban targeting. LATEST: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 16 injured in Kharkiv, requiring immediate medical response in next 1-6 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports two fatalities in Sumy Oblast due to strike UAV, requiring continued emergency response in next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa's photos confirm ongoing damage. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports 43 civilians injured in Kharkiv, indicating MLCOA for sustained high casualty urban attacks. Dnevnik Desantnika video of explosion/shelling in Kharkiv urban area and Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) new video of morning "Geranium" attack on Kharkiv confirm MLCOA for continued drone strikes on urban areas. Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly indicates MLCOA for continued targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv, leveraging local intelligence. Vooin DV provides aerial reconnaissance video of UAF 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment, confirming MLCOA for RUF reconnaissance and targeting of UAF formations in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF targeting energy and gas facilities in Sumy, indicating continued strikes on critical infrastructure in next 1-12 hours. Dva Mayora posts a video of explosions along a treeline in Sumy, confirming continued offensive actions in the next 1-12 hours. Shef Hayabusa posts video of a Shahed drone impact in Kharkiv, indicating continued strikes in the next 1-12 hours. Oleg Synegubov reports 33 injured in Kharkiv, indicating urgent medical response will continue in the next 1-6 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk: RUF claimed FAB-500 strike and 29th Army advance indicates continued pressure, expect further strikes/probes in next 24-48 hours. Continued artillery and drone attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets expected in next 12-24 hours. Oleg Synegubov reports ongoing emergency rescue operations overnight. TASS reports "Center" group of forces liberated Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued localized advances and pressure in the next 24-48 hours. LATEST: TASS reports Ukrainian military personnel retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, suggesting continued pressure in the next 24-48 hours. NEW: MoD Russia and Poddubny confirm liberation of Dachnoe, indicating continued localized advances in the next 24-48 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Ukrainian forces installing a flag over Dachne, indicating a contested situation and possible continued clashes in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• TCC Strikes: Expect continued RUF strikes on TCCs and critical infrastructure in the coming week. Drones attempting to attack TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, indicating this targeting will continue in next 1-12 hours. Vinnytsia TCC suspension indicates continued TCC targeting in next 1-12 hours. Voenkor Kotenok claims Shahed drones "worked" on TCCs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Poddubny (RUF source) claims "Geraniums" worked on TCC buildings, stating UAF TCCs are relocating, indicating continued TCC targeting in the next 1-12 hours. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit UAF TCCs over the past day, confirming this will continue in the next 12-24 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports TCCs in Lviv Oblast strengthened security, indicating immediate response actions in the next 1-12 hours. NEW: Colonelcassad's latest video explicitly states the targeting of TCCs in Kharkiv and encourages civilian reporting of TCC locations for further strikes, confirming continued TCC targeting in the next 1-12 hours. Kotsnews video confirming "Geranium" strikes on TCCs implies this threat will continue in the next 1-12 hours. WarGonzo posts videos claiming RF strikes on TCCs in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, implying continued strikes in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava: Expect continued RUF UAV activity from Sumy towards Poltava in the next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad: RUF stated intent to assault Tolstoy and analysis on Mirnograd suggests increased pressure in next 48-96 hours. RUF claims of encircling Pokrovsk suggest sustained effort. UAF decision point: Evaluate immediate defensive reinforcements and counter-attack opportunities. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Poddubnoye implies continued consolidation in next 24-48 hours. Two Majors fundraising for stormtroopers in Kostiantynivka direction indicates continued RUF pressure. General Staff reports clashes in Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions. Sternenko posts FPV drone video in Pokrovsk direction, implying continued UAF defensive actions in next 12-24 hours. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Kramatorsk, indicating continued deep strike risk in the eastern direction in next 1-12 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) was NOT occupied, which reduces immediate pressure on the southern flank of this axis. NEW: Slishny Kapriz (Sliver caprice) photo messages of Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye and drone video of RUF military convoy confirm continued ground movement and potential for localized advances in this sector in the next 12-24 hours. Voenkor Kotenok's Krasnolimansk direction map confirms continued RUF focus on this sector in the next 12-24 hours. Voenkor Kotenok posts a photo message of the Novopavlivka direction, implying continued RUF pressure in this sector in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Odesa/Black Sea Strikes: Expect continued RUF Shahed drone activity from Black Sea towards Odesa/Mykolaiv in next 12-24 hours. Immediate clean-up/damage assessment efforts in Odesa in next 1-12 hours. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms significant damage, implying continued risk of strikes in next 12-24 hours and ongoing emergency response in next 1-12 hours. NEW: Mykolaiv Oblast fire at ammunition storage site indicates an immediate emergency response requirement in the next 1-12 hours. Rybar posts a video showing damage to buildings in Odesa from a strike, implying continued clean-up efforts and risk of further strikes in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kyiv Strikes: While immediate threat lifted, expect continued RUF Shahed drone activity targeting Kyiv in next 24-48 hours. RUF intent to target missile warehouses/drone assembly sites. Overnight attack indicates persistent threat, requiring vigilance in next 1-24 hours. UAF deep strike efforts into Russia (Krasnozavodsk) will likely persist in next 12-24 hours. Repairs to damaged heating main in next 1-12 hours. New air raid alert for ballistic missile threat indicates potential for further strikes in next 1-6 hours. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings without hot water. KMVA reports new alerts for ballistic threats. Ballistic missile threat from the south (now lifted) indicates potential for repeat strikes in next 1-12 hours. Air Force reports ballistic threat from north-west for Sumy, but also indicates potential general ballistic threat. LATEST: Air Force of Ukraine reports "all clear" for ballistic missile threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (Northeast/South/East): While immediate threat lifted, expect continued ballistic missile threats originating from northeast and south in next 12-24 hours. Air Force reports new ballistic missile threat from north-west. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from eastern direction, requiring immediate vigilance in next 1-6 hours. LATEST: Air Force of Ukraine reports "all clear" for ballistic missile threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• DeepState Map Update: Expect ongoing, continuous tactical adjustments and map updates. DeepState's report on Lobkove was contradicted, implying a need for more robust verification and potentially faster updates. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Internal UAV Threat: Morning drone activity in Krasnozavodsk suggests UAF deep strike operations will continue in next 12-24 hours. Igor Artamonov reports massive attack on Lipetsk, indicating continued UAF deep strikes. Dnevnik Десантника reports 91 UAVs destroyed, indicating continued AD responses in next 12-24 hours. Shef Hayabusa videos confirm ongoing deep strikes. UAF attack on Ilsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Krai) and Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant (Moscow Oblast) indicates continued UAF deep strike operations targeting Russian industrial/strategic targets, expected in next 12-24 hours. RUF AD response (93 drones shot down overnight) indicates high alert for next 12-24 hours. Continued airport disruptions in Russia in next 12-24 hours. Sever.Realii warns of ease of civilian drone assembly. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport indicating flight disruptions due to drone threat, expecting continued disruptions and UAF activity in next 12-24 hours. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi, reinforcing this. LATEST: TASS video shows flights arriving in Sheremetyevo from St. Petersburg after restrictions lifted, but internal disruptions remain a concern in the next 12-24 hours. Basurin o главном's video claiming "Ukrainian underground" activity suggests MLCOA for continued sabotage/hybrid operations within Ukraine, which could be falsely attributed to UAF in Russian media. NEW: News of Moscow reports network outages for Telegram and MTS, indicating potential for continued internal infrastructure issues in next 12-24 hours. ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, suggesting continued internal security operations in the next 24-72 hours. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports mobile internet has been disabled in Kamchatka, indicating MLCOA for continued preemptive security measures in response to perceived threats in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled. Continue monitoring for changes in next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Civilian Impact: Given fatalities/damaged houses, expect continued emergency response/humanitarian aid in next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kaluga Oblast Sabotage: Expect continued Russian counter-intelligence operations in next 24-72 hours. FSB reports on arrests for helping Kyiv via phone scammers indicate continued internal security focus. NEW: ASTRA posts videos of FSB detaining individuals for allegedly setting fire to security forces' cars and power line poles, confirming continued internal security operations in the next 24-72 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Internal Travel Disruptions: Expect continued domestic travel disruptions due to UAV threats in next 12-24 hours. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights posts photos and video of St. Petersburg airport indicating flight disruptions. ASTRA reports 40 flights cancelled/delayed in Sochi, reinforcing this expectation for next 12-24 hours. LATEST: TASS video shows first flights arriving in Sheremetyevo after restrictions were lifted, suggesting normalization, but the underlying threat remains in the next 12-24 hours. NEW: News of Moscow reports network outages for Telegram and MTS, which could cause continued travel disruptions if systems are linked to transport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF Drone Operations (Toretsk): Expect continued UAF drone strikes in Toretsk in next 12-24 hours as shown by Brigade Khizhak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian UAV Sites: Expect RUF to continue targeting UAF UAV launch/staging sites in next 12-24 hours. LATEST: TASS reports RF forces hit drone assembly enterprises and storage sites over the past day, confirming this will continue in the next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia: Expect continued RUF UAV threats in Zaporizhzhia in next 1-12 hours, requiring continued emergency response in next 1-12 hours given new casualties. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo message indicates transport movement restrictions. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 11 injured, requiring immediate medical response in next 1-6 hours. LATEST: Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine have posted photo messages showing the aftermath of drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued emergency response in the next 1-12 hours. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 17 injured, requiring immediate medical response in next 1-6 hours. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video depicting the aftermath of an attack on a multi-story building, indicating continued emergency response and damage assessment in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zakarpattia Checkpoint Incident: Immediate investigation and security review of checkpoints will occur in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF Internal Corruption Investigations: Expect continued internal investigations and legal proceedings (e.g., against ex-MOD official) in the next 24-72 hours, impacting public trust and resource management. NEW: Office of the Prosecutor General (OGP) reports an ex-Ministry of Defense official was served with a suspicion notice for supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers to the UAF, indicating immediate legal proceedings in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Ammunition Fire: Expect immediate damage assessment and fire suppression efforts in the next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

6.1. Intelligence Gaps

• RUF Reserve Composition (Eastern Axis): Detailed information on RUF operational reserves behind Chasiv Yar (location, strength, readiness, designation). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Intent (Sumy/Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk): Precise determination of RUF's strategic intent in Sumy (fixing, new advance, diversion). Conditions for renewed major RUF offensive towards Kharkiv. Specific intent behind Kupyansk encirclement claims. Operational significance of 29th Army advance in Dnipropetrovsk and nature of attacks on civilian areas (specifically Yanvarskoye). Verification of newly claimed liberated areas (Dachne, Bessalovka). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Ballistic Missile Capabilities (Northeast/South/East): Identification of specific launch systems and origin locations from both northeastern and southern axes. Assessment of accuracy and targeting patterns, particularly for the threat from the north-west and now the confirmed eastern direction. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Submarine Operational Status: Clarification on readiness and capabilities (technical issues, tactical constraints, deception?). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• UAF POW Verification: Full verification of claimed UAF 80th ODShBr POW and circumstances of capture. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Impact of FAB-1500/FAB-500 on UAF Defenses: Specific tactical assessment of effectiveness against UAF defenses. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Internal Discipline/Morale: Verification and assessment of scope and impact of alleged torture/abuse within RUF units. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Strategic Bomber Destruction: Independent verification of claimed destruction (type, location, method). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Gerbera Drone Capabilities: Detailed analysis of payload, accuracy, and range in strike role. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Moto-Assault TTPs: Detailed assessment of tactics, force composition, objectives. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• UAF 1st Tank Brigade Status (Sumy): Independent verification of RUF claim (wounded, logistical challenges). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Belarusian Counter-UAV System: Detailed technical assessment (capabilities, range, impact). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• "Oreshnik" Missile Status: Independent verification of launch failure. Technical analysis of cause and implications. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Tactical Training Changes: Analysis of changes in stormtrooper training and impact on assault tactics. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Internal Dissent/Criticism: Further assessment of source and scope of internal criticism (e.g., from Colonelcassad, Pavel Gubarev). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Domestic Security Focus: Analysis of scope and targets of law enforcement actions (internal stability, mobilization, social control, impact of phone scams). (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Mass Counter-Drone Training Impact: Assess potential impact on AD effectiveness and implications for UAF drone operations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• "Azov Nazis" Propaganda Effectiveness: Analyze target audience and effectiveness. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Russian Defense Industrial Base Issues: Investigate specific reasons for MoD RF legal action against JSC "Electroautomatics." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Anti-Robotics Capabilities: Assess extent of capabilities and deployment. Identify systems used and impact on UAF UGV ops. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Losses Assessment (LNR claims): Independent verification of actual Ukrainian losses to counter disinformation, particularly RUF claims of ~1245 personnel losses. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Unidentified Aircraft/Drone in Krasnozavodsk: Identify type/purpose. Investigate smoke plume. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Psychological Operations Effectiveness: Assess reach and perceived effectiveness of leaflet propaganda. (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Morale/Religious Support Structures: Determine scope and purpose of building religious structures. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Russian Internal Crime/Traffic Issues: Assess impact on public morale, resource allocation, state resilience (e.g., impact of transport collapse on public trust/economy, impact of Sochi airport delays). (LOW PRIORITY)
• Russian Body Armor Enhancements: Investigate specific design/material changes for neck protection and assess impact. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Specific RUF Artillery Targets (Voskresenka): Identify nature of "planned targets." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• UAF FPV Drone Warhead Analysis: Internal analysis of captured UAF FPV drone warheads. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• WarGonzo Map Details: Obtain full content of tactical maps for specific positions, control lines, movements. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Shtirlits Demobilized Analysis: Full analysis of photo/video messages (identity, circumstances, intelligence value). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Impact of Diplomatic Shift (Iran): Determine implications of potential reduction in Iranian support for RUF. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Russian Internal Information Environment Control: Analyze intent and effectiveness of non-military posts (e.g., Alex Parker Returns' "10 years" or "bathroom ideas", News of Moscow's "Vitamin C"). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Military Recruitment & Discipline: Obtain concrete information on recruitment mechanisms, verify extent of alleged abuses. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Tactical Gains in Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: Immediate, independent verification of claimed occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye, particularly given the contradiction for Lobkove. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Impact of Kyiv Hot Water Outage: Assess full extent, expected duration, and impact on civilian morale/services. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Negotiation Stance: Deep dive into RUF's stated negotiating conditions and their genuine flexibility or inflexibility. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Rubizh Brigade Losses: Detailed assessment of equipment and property losses of "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Kamchatka Internet Restrictions: Understand the scope, duration, and rationale behind these restrictions. (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Corruption in Fortification Construction: Assess the scale and impact of reported theft in Kursk Oblast on defensive capabilities. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Current State of Ilsky Oil Refinery: Independent verification of damage or lack thereof. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Effectiveness of RUF "Marine Detachment" operations: Assess operational role and impact of this unit. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Identity of UAF unit in Butusov Plus video: Identify specific unit and nature of activity near damaged truck. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Impact of Vinnytsia TCC Suspension: Assess how this is affecting mobilization efforts and the specific reason for suspension (security, staff shortages, etc.). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Casualty Verification in Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia: Obtain precise and independently verified casualty figures for current attacks, particularly the number of severely injured needing extensive medical care. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Zaporizhzhia University Hit: Assess the exact nature of the damage and if it was a direct or indirect impact, to determine RUF targeting precision and intent. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Vladikavkaz Incident: Independent verification of the incident involving the war participant. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Impact of Transport Minister Appointment: Analyze the strategic implications of Andrei Nikitin's appointment on Russian transport logistics and military support capabilities. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Russian Domestic Social Policy Impact: Assess the real-world impact of new social bills (e.g., increased fines for consumer rights, teacher pay, family benefits) on public support for the government and the war effort. (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Combat Statistics: Independent verification of Zelenskyy's reported RF usage of drones, missiles, and KABs. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Zakarpattia Checkpoint Incident: Full details of the incident, including the identity of the border guard, the driver's intent, and any broader implications for checkpoint security. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• DOT-Chain Defence Impact: Assess the immediate and long-term impact of the new digital supply system on UAF logistics and combat effectiveness. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Changes to Russian Negotiation Group: Identify the composition and specific mandates of any changes to the Russian negotiation group. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• "Ukrainian Underground" Activity: Independent verification of claimed sabotage actions by a "Ukrainian underground" within Ukraine. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• UAF Diplomatic Appointments: Assess implications of potential changes to the Ukrainian Ambassador to the USA. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Impact of History Exam Change: Analyze the potential long-term social and political implications of the change to the history exam requirements in Russia. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Militarization of Russian Education: Monitor for any further shifts in educational policy that promote militarization or patriotic education. (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Internal Network Outages (Telegram, MTS): Assess the scope, duration, and cause of these outages and their potential impact on RUF C2 and domestic information flow. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Internal UAF Corruption Impact: Evaluate the full extent of the impact of the reported corruption regarding unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers on UAF combat capabilities and public trust. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Kharkiv Area Forces and Logistics: Detailed assessment of RUF forces, logistics, and command posts in the Kharkiv Oblast, especially in forested areas. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Artillery Targets in Kherson: Identify the nature of the target hit by the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment in Kherson direction. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Mykolaiv Ammunition Fire: Immediate battle damage assessment (BDA) to confirm cause, extent of damage, and impact on UAF operational capabilities and logistics in the southern region. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Targeting of Sumy Energy/Gas Facilities: Assess the specific targets, extent of damage, and the immediate and long-term impact on civilian population and military support in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Sweden Military Aid Package: Full details of the new military aid package from Sweden, including specifications, quantities, and delivery timelines for the Saab Lightweight Torpedo and any other included items. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Internal Legal Issues: Investigate the specific allegations against Judge Albert Trishkin and Rusagro founder Moshkovich to understand potential implications for internal stability and rule of law in Russia. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Long-Term Impact on Civilians in Conflict Zones: Assess the long-term humanitarian and societal impact of prolonged military operations on civilian populations in areas like Komsomolskoye (Donetsk Oblast). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)

6.2. Collection Requirements

• ISR (IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT): Prioritize collection on RUF rear areas (Belgorod, Kursk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk) for force build-up, logistics, troop movements. Identify origin/launch platforms of ballistic missiles from northeast, south, and east, particularly the north-west threat. Monitor RUF drone activity and counter-UAV tactics over Chasiv Yar. Focus on Kupyansk area for encirclement indicators. Monitor for further RUF "moto-assaults." Monitor RUF drone operations with KVN drones or modified models. Observe RUF anti-robotics efforts. Immediately investigate Krasnozavodsk (Moscow Oblast) activity, including imagery of the chemical plant. Monitor RUF movements in Poltava (UAVs from Sumy). Monitor Kharkiv for drone impacts and civilian casualties. Monitor Kyiv for drone attacks and consequences. Monitor Nikopol and Marhanets for attacks. Monitor Kryvyi Rih for changes. Monitor RUF air force activity at airfields. Assess damage to Kyiv's heating main. Monitor Odesa for emergency response/damage. Investigate RUF artillery targets in Voskresenka. Analyze WarGonzo maps. Monitor RUF targeting of UAF UAV launch/staging sites. Immediately verify damage to Ilsky Oil Refinery. Immediately investigate Vinnytsia TCC status and security. Prioritize IMINT on Zaporizhzhia university for damage assessment. Intensify SIGINT on RUF strike UAV planning for Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Monitor RUF combat statistics (drones, missiles, KABs used). Verify RUF claims of liberation of Dachne and Bessalovka. Conduct IMINT on Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoye axis for RUF ground movement. Conduct aerial reconnaissance of Kharkiv Oblast forested areas for UAF encampments and RUF targeting. Conduct IMINT/BDA on artillery strike in Kherson direction. Conduct IMINT/BDA on Mykolaiv ammunition storage site fire. Conduct IMINT/BDA on RUF strikes against Sumy energy/gas facilities. Conduct IMINT/BDA on impact sites in Odesa. Conduct IMINT/BDA on damaged areas in Komsomolskoye, Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• SIGINT/HUMINT: Collect on RUF C2 communications for insights into assessments, objectives, timelines. Prioritize understanding RUF tactical decision-making. Collect on RUF drone communication (Gerbera ops). Specifically collect on UAF 1st Tank Brigade status. Develop sources in occupied territories for RUF logistics, morale, personnel issues. Investigate claims of internal RUF abuses. Seek independent confirmation of strategic bomber destruction. Investigate MoD RF legal action against "Electroautomatics." Collect on RUF negotiation positions. Collect on internal corruption investigations within RUF (e.g., Kursk). Collect on RUF perceptions of UAF morale, particularly regarding surrender claims. Investigate the Wagner commander's death and its implications for former PMC personnel. Collect on internal RUF discussions regarding TCC targeting. Collect on SBU counter-terrorism operations. Collect on the Vladikavkaz incident. Collect on new RUF claims of liberated territories (Dachne, Bessalovka). Collect on the operational impact of "DOT-Chain Defence." Collect on the composition and specific mandates of any changes to the Russian negotiation group. Collect on any indications of "Ukrainian underground" activity. Collect on the implications of changing the Ukrainian Ambassador to the USA. Collect on the impact of RUF internal network outages on C2 and operations. Collect on the details of the UAF internal corruption investigation. Collect on the cause and extent of the Mykolaiv ammunition storage fire. Collect on the specific RUF units and tactics involved in targeting Sumy energy/gas facilities. Collect on RUF discussions regarding their peace demands. Collect on the operational and strategic impact of the Swedish military aid package, especially the Saab Lightweight Torpedo. Collect on the specific details of RUF internal legal proceedings against judges and company founders. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• OSINT/Media Monitoring: Monitor Russian military channels and state media for submarine ops, POW exploitation, equipment appeals, tactical analysis (Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, Kupyansk). Monitor for strategic bomber visual evidence. Monitor RUF channels for "moto-assaults." Monitor TASS/official channels for UAF unit status claims, propaganda. Monitor for details on Belarusian counter-UAV system, "Oreshnik" missile, tactical training, "truth coming out" narratives. Monitor for psychological operations (leaflets). Monitor domestic policy discussions. Monitor US military aid narratives. Monitor domestic security operations. Monitor counter-drone training. Monitor "Azov Nazis" propaganda. Monitor incitement to espionage in Kyiv. Monitor Trump's tariff statements. Monitor exaggerated UAF losses. Monitor claims of UAF fatigue/low morale. Monitor morale-building activities. Monitor internal crime/traffic issues. Monitor RUF neck protection details. Monitor Basurin o главном for historical narratives. Monitor RUF sources for Kharkiv Shahed impact. Monitor Operatyvnyi ZSU/ASTRA for Sumy casualties. Monitor Operatyvnyi ZSU for Odesa strike. Monitor RUF sources for Kyiv heating main. Monitor Zvizedets Mangust for tactical insights. Monitor Dnevnik Десантника for captured UAF drone components. Monitor Shtirlits for RUF personnel losses. Monitor RBC-Ukraine for Kyiv hot water situation. Monitor Basurin o главном for non-military posts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники for recruitment. Monitor Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights/DeepState for confirmation of Lobkove/Poddubnoye. Monitor Poddubny's statements on negotiations. Monitor Rubizh National Guard Brigade's fundraising for details on losses. Monitor Kamchatka governor's statements on internet restrictions. Monitor RUF social media for reactions to Ilsky Oil Refinery and Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant attacks. Monitor Khabarovsk Police for recruitment campaigns. Monitor Mash na Donbashe for normalcy propaganda in occupied areas. Monitor Ukrainian local authorities and media for updates on Vinnytsia TCC and civilian casualties/damage in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Monitor RUF channels for further details on the Wagner commander's death. Monitor Dmitry Medvedev's channel for new propaganda initiatives. Monitor TASS for updates on Andrei Nikitin's statements regarding transport system. Monitor Russian state media for increased coverage of social policies (fines, taxes, education, family benefits). Monitor for new RUF narratives regarding Typhoon "Danas" in Taiwan. Monitor RBK-Ukraina and other Ukrainian media for details on the Zakarpattia checkpoint incident and its implications. Monitor RUF sources for any claims regarding the Zakarpattia incident. Monitor STERNENKO for updates on "DOT-Chain Defence." Monitor Russian state media for reports on "Ukrainian underground" activity within Ukraine. Monitor UAF General Staff and MoD for official statements on new ambassador appointments. Monitor Russian media for any commentary on the history exam change. Monitor RUF social media for instances of encouraging civilians to report TCC locations. Monitor Russian Telegram channels and news for reporting on network outages and their impact. Monitor OGP and Operatyvnyi ZSU for further details on internal UAF corruption investigations. Monitor Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights for UAF drone operations against RUF aviation. Monitor Ukrainian official channels for updates on Mykolaiv ammunition storage site fire. Monitor Sumy Oblast authorities for details on energy/gas facility strikes. Monitor RUF official statements and media for any changes in peace agreement demands. Monitor Swedish media for additional details on military aid packages. Monitor Russian official legal reports regarding internal corruption cases. Monitor sources providing information on civilian conditions in occupied Donetsk Oblast. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. For Joint Operations Command (EAST):

   • Counter-Battery Priority: Immediately allocate maximum available counter-battery fire assets to Chasiv Yar axis (artillery, HIMARS) to degrade RUF artillery/mortar, target GLOCs, and support canal crossing attempts. Pre-plan fires on RUF concentrations and crossing points. Prioritize destruction of detected RUF 152mm artillery.
   • Defensive Layering: Reinforce defensive positions west of Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal with additional anti-tank/anti-personnel obstacles. Conduct immediate re-evaluation of defensive lines/fall-back positions in Kostiantynivka, assess Mirnograd threats. Reinforce 63rd Mechanized Brigade in Torske area with counter-mobility assets and ISR.
   • ISR Overmatch: Prioritize ISR assets (MALE UAVs, SIGINT) for constant surveillance over key RUF maneuver areas/GLOCs in Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk for early warning. Immediately assess impacts of FAB-1500/FAB-500. Implement advanced counter-drone tactics (learning from RUF ramming). Prioritize detection/neutralization of repurposed RUF strike drones ("Gerbera"). Immediately verify and address tactical implications of RUF claimed occupation of Poddubnoye and Lobkove, noting the contradiction for Lobkove. Continue and enhance drone operations as demonstrated by Brigade Khizhak in Toretsk. Immediately assess WarGonzo's video of the destroyed tank to determine UAF or RUF losses.
   • Deep Strike Countermeasures: Re-evaluate and strengthen air defense in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration due to confirmed "Geranium" drone activity.
   • Tactical Response to Gains: Immediately confirm RUF claims of liberating Dachne and Bessalovka. If confirmed, adjust defensive lines and prepare for further localized RUF advances.
   • Civilian Protection (Donetsk): Immediately allocate emergency response and humanitarian aid to affected areas in Donetsk Oblast, particularly Komsomolskoye, given reported civilian suffering and damage.

2. For Joint Operations Command (NORTH):

   • Targeting FAB Platforms: Prioritize targeting of known RUF FAB glide bomb launch platforms (Su-34s, airfields, logistics) to reduce attacks on Kharkiv/Sumy. Exploit reported loss of Su-34 bombardier.
   • Reserve Allocation Review: Reassess tactical/operational reserves in Kharkiv-Sumy. Maintain high readiness for rapid deployment against offensive shift. Accelerate provision of critical drone equipment to frontline units (21st OMBr). Prioritize night vision.
   • Enhanced Counter-UAV/EW: Deploy additional anti-drone systems and EW capabilities against RUF FPV/reconnaissance UAVs. Prepare for increased RUF ground probing and offensive in Kupyansk (especially roads). Immediately investigate RUF claims on 1st Tank Brigade status. Maintain vigilance for RUF SpN activity in border areas. Prioritize defense of Kharkiv against drone attacks (additional AD assets). Prevent RUF strikes on UAF transport. Enhance capabilities to track/intercept RUF UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Reinforce UAF positions near Yunakivka and Sadki in Sumy. Immediately verify RUF claims of liberating Bessalovka.
   • Civilian Protection: Immediately allocate emergency response and medical assets to Kharkiv given the rising number of injured (33 confirmed). Prioritize security measures for public spaces and residential areas.
   • Counter-Targeting of UAF Formations: Immediately enhance concealment and force protection for UAF formations identified by RUF reconnaissance (e.g., 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade encampment). Consider tactical redeployment or increased camouflage efforts.
   • Critical Infrastructure Protection (Sumy): Implement enhanced security and redundancy measures for energy and gas facilities in Sumy Oblast due to confirmed RUF targeting.

3. For Joint Operations Command (CENTER):

   • Dnipropetrovsk Defense: Reinforce air defense/counter-battery assets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (targeting FAB-500 strikes, 29th Army advances). Prioritize ISR to monitor RUF ground probing. Enhance air defense/counter-artillery in Nikopol and Marhanets. Immediately verify RUF claims of liberating Dachne. If confirmed, reassess local defensive lines and prepare for further probes. Proactively leverage information operations regarding Dachne to counter RUF propaganda, as demonstrated by the UAF flag video.
   • Personnel Verification: Investigate RUF claims of UAF personnel retreating and surrendering in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to determine truthfulness and identify any unit-specific vulnerabilities.

4. For Joint Operations Command (SOUTH):

   • Air Defense Reinforcement: Prioritize allocation of air defense assets to Odesa/Mykolaiv oblasts against RUF Shahed UAV attacks from Black Sea.
   • Naval Surveillance: Increase ISR efforts on RUF naval activity in Black Sea/Sea of Azov (missile carriers, submarine deployments).
   • Zaporizhzhia Defense: Immediately provide additional air defense assets to Zaporizhzhia city and surrounding areas to counter ongoing RUF drone attacks. Prioritize emergency response and humanitarian aid for injured civilians (17 reported injured). Secure the university area and assess structural integrity. Implement traffic control measures around damaged areas.
   • Ammunition Storage Security (Mykolaiv): Conduct immediate investigation into the Mykolaiv ammunition storage fire. Implement enhanced security protocols, fire suppression measures, and dispersed storage for all ammunition depots in the southern region. Conduct a rapid assessment of remaining ammunition stocks.
   • Counter-Naval Capabilities: Integrate the new Saab Lightweight Torpedo from Sweden into coastal defense and naval operations as quickly as possible to enhance counter-surface vessel capabilities.

5. For General Staff (UAF):

   • Mobilization Strategy Adjustment: Urgent review of TCC operations and mobilization strategies (public concerns, equitable recruitment, RUF propaganda mitigation). Consider public-private partnerships for equipment. Proactively counter RUF narratives on female mobilization. Adjust TCC locations and security measures (e.g., Vinnytsia suspension). Allocate immediate funds for Rubizh National Guard Brigade to restore lost equipment/property. Ensure rapid medical evacuation capabilities are robust, particularly addressing reported issues with 1st Tank Brigade. Enhance security at all checkpoints, including those far from the front, following the Zakarpattia incident. Capitalize on new digital supply systems like "DOT-Chain Defence" for accelerated arms acquisition. Address reported corruption within MOD supply chains (e.g., unsuitable anti-tank missile launchers) transparently and decisively to maintain public trust and supply quality.
   • Strategic Reserve Positioning: Maintain flexible and readily deployable strategic reserve for Eastern, Northern, or Central axes, considering potential new RUF advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy.
   • Air Defense Enhancement (Northeast/South/East): Prioritize immediate allocation/deployment of advanced ballistic missile defense systems to threatened areas from northeastern, southern, and now eastern axes, including the new north-western threat.
   • International Support Coordination: Advocate for accelerated delivery of AD systems. Coordinate on RUF EW challenges. Expedite "secret request" for German weapons. Prioritize diplomatic efforts for counter-air capabilities (if bomber destruction verified). Emphasize investment in Ukrainian drone, AI, cyber defense technologies. Actively engage NATO allies on burden-sharing, countering RUF narratives on US stock depletion. Leverage any verifiable reduction in Iranian support for Russia. Coordinate with Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg on reconstruction efforts. Actively pursue US Ambassador appointment. Maintain close coordination with international partners on new aid packages, such as the Swedish Saab Lightweight Torpedo.
   • Naval Assessment: Detailed assessment of RUF Black Sea Fleet submarine activity. Analyze "Oreshnik" missile failure.
   • Counter-Propaganda: Proactively counter RUF narratives (Belgorod drone strike). Emphasize UAF adherence to LOAC. Communicate rapidly on captured personnel. Leverage combat footage for morale. Exploit verified RUF abuses (Pavel Gubarev's reports). Strategically address Kupyansk encirclement claims. Counter RUF claims on UAF unit readiness. Counter RUF narratives of "authoritarianism" and "Nazi symbolism." Proactively address/exploit Russian domestic issues (airport disruptions, migrant roundups, Sochi delays, network outages, internal corruption scandals like those involving Judge Trishkin and Moshkovich). Publicly highlight Russian domestic issues and impact on civilian life. Maintain focus on national pride. Discredit RUF "truth" narratives. Leverage US internal political discussions. Develop countermeasures and messaging for RUF "Azov Nazis" propaganda. Consider adapting decentralized counter-drone training initiatives. Develop proactive messaging against RUF incitement to espionage in Kyiv. Monitor/exploit issues in Russian defense industrial base. Proactively counter RUF disinformation on Ukrainian losses, especially TASS claims of ~1245 personnel losses. Develop/deploy capabilities to counter RUF ground robotic systems. Investigate internal security issues (fraud). Develop counter-messaging to RUF leaflet propaganda. Counter RUF claims of UAF fatigue/low morale. Use official channels to report RUF losses. Amplify impact of UAF deep strikes on Russia (Crimean Bridge, Moscow/Lipetsk, Ilsky Oil Refinery, Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant). Emphasize human cost of RUF urban attacks (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia). Counter RUF AD claims by highlighting drone penetration. Publicly acknowledge/address civilian infrastructure damage (Kyiv heating main). Highlight civilian fatalities/injuries in Odesa/Sumy. Integrate WarGonzo map information into planning. Leverage Shtirlits' posts on RUF losses. Proactively address Kyiv hot water outage. Leverage Su-34 bombardier death as counter-propaganda. Actively counter RUF propaganda on Lobkove/Poddubnoye by emphasizing South Defense Forces' contradictory report. Counter RUF narrative on negotiation "disrespect" by clearly articulating Ukrainian position and conditions, directly addressing the maximalist demands articulated by RUF. Promote youth mental health initiatives as part of national resilience. Exploit verified RUF internal corruption (Kursk Governor). Engage media on Butusov Plus video for UAF unit identification/context. Respond proactively to RUF claims of UAF surrenders. Leverage Basurin o главном's attempts to discredit aid to reinforce the importance of transparency. Publicly commend SBU's counter-terrorism successes. Publicly address any incidents involving returning war participants (e.g. Vladikavkaz). Highlight the significant volume of RUF attacks (drones, missiles, KABs) to international partners, underscoring ongoing threat. Directly counter RUF claims of "Ukrainian underground" operations with factual reporting on internal security. Counter Russian narratives on peace terms by emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Proactively address Russian censorship (e.g., ASTRA's report on First Channel editing). Use information on Russian veteran events to highlight the human cost of the war on Russia. Counter RUF attempts to use mobile internet restrictions in Kamchatka as a narrative of external threat, by highlighting it as internal repression.