Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 070700Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alert due to ballistic threat, now lifted. UAV debris damaged non-residential building in Desnianskyi district and vehicle/water pipe in Solomianskyi district; no fire or casualties. Damaged heating main impacts ~500 buildings. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Agricultural enterprise in Znamyanka Community damaged by RUF attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs impacted Kharkiv city (Shevchenkivskyi and Slobidskyi districts), causing fire and significant casualties (27 injured, including 3 children). Glide bombs (KABs) continue against Kharkiv city and 13 settlements. RUF forces attacked emergency responders. RUF claims liberation of Sobolivka and attempting to cut UAF logistics near Kupyansk for encirclement. RUF aviation airstrikes across Vovchansk and Chuhuiv. Civilian vehicle attacked by FPV drone, child killed. UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Mine detonations remain a civilian threat. RUF sources claim successful "Anvar" SpN unit operations and battle for Kupyansk on roads for encirclement. Video confirmed Shahed drone impact in residential area. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. New video message from Oleg Synegubov shows aftermath of morning attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, confirming extensive damage to residential buildings and continued casualties. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of RUF aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. Two districts terrorized, residential buildings damaged. RUF source claims FAB-500 strike on crossing point near Ivanivka, with 29th Army advancing. Photo messages confirm RUF use of artillery and drones against Nikopol and Marhanets communities, damaging residential structures. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast attack. Air Force of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Nikopol district. Dnevnik Desantnika claims RUF Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) destroyed manpower of 31st UAF Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS reports foreign mercenaries destroyed by FAB strike in Yanvarskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (unverified by UAF). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast: No significant changes to battlefield geometry. Pokrovsk direction remains most active, UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 attacks (June 29-July 5), eliminating 147 RUF personnel. RUF claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye and Tolstoy, with MoD Russia video visually confirming Poddubnoye capture. RUF VDV active in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF continues to press in Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions. UAF drone operations active near Toretsk. RUF propaganda suggests Chasiv Yar fall leads to UAF defense collapse further west. 5 killed, 1 wounded in Donetsk Oblast shelling. RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area (possibly Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk). MoD Russia video shows drone/artillery strikes in South Donetsk and Chasiv Yar. UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped groups attempting to break through to Torske. RUF reportedly used a "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike drone for first time against civilian object in Druzhkivka. Air Force of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast. RUF 20th and 25th Armies operations reported. DeepState reports National Guardsmen destroyed a RUF 152mm artillery piece near Storozheve. TASS reports DNR head Pushilin claims RUF continues to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia) and Poddubnoye (Donetsk), citing DeepState. "Dva mayora" (Two Majors) reports fundraising for "stormtroopers" in Kostiantynivka direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kherson Oblast: RUF claims UAF strike on polyclinic in Nova Kakhovka (unverified). RUF "Dnepr" unit reportedly destroyed UAF M777 howitzer. RUF FPV drone strike on OKKO gas station in Kherson. RUF attacked rescuers. UAF reports repelling one RUF assault. RUF aviation airstrikes at Olhivka. UAF Marines continue air defense operations. MoD Russia video claims drone/artillery strikes. Armored ambulance vehicles arrived in Kherson Oblast (RUF logistical support). Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows a significant smoke plume after an explosion in a field, with shouts of alarm, confirming military activity in the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea impacted Mykolaiv city. Significant damage to residential buildings, catering facility, bank. Multiple Shaheds reported shot down. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides overall count of "mopeds," confirming continued tracking. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Odesa Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea. Explosion reported. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shahed UAVs. UAF Naval Forces celebrated in Odesa (high morale). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 12 Shahed UAVs from Black Sea towards Pivdenny/Chornomorsk, later diverting to Odesa, with 6 remaining. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa with strike drones. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" (Shahed) drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos showing explosions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person, with photos and videos confirming extensive fire and damaged vehicles. Sternenko, RBC-Ukraine, and Shef Hayabusa confirm fatality. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms one killed and civilian infrastructure damage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs targeted Poltava Oblast, confirmed strike on TCC building in Kremenchuk (3rd TCC strike this week), 2 injured, nearby residential damage. Video confirms significant damage. RUF UAV detected from Sumy region moving towards northern Poltava. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation continues KAB launches. RUF UAVs moving into Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. RUF MoD video claims destruction of UAF shelters. RUF sources claim UAF redeployed new units to Sumy, and over 20 trucks with RUF personnel reportedly redeploying to Sumy from southern regions. RUF reports 23 UAF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators soliciting support. Animated scheme by Colonelcassad confirms RUF strikes on 05-06 JUL. Two Mayors report explosions in Kondratovka district. TASS reports UAF 1st Separate Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation. RBC-Ukraine reports killed in Bitytsia shelling risen to 2. Colonelcassad provides video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups from all front directions to Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 private houses burned, 2 deaths, 2 injuries. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports attack on Bitytskyi старостат. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki despite RUF introducing VDV and Naval Infantry. Two Mayors photo message shows map for Sumy direction, indicating continued RUF focus. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs launched at Sumy Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Vinnytsia Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs detected moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast from southern Kyiv Oblast. Sternenko reports strike UAV threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attack with 5 Shahed UAVs damaged private/farming enterprises, warehouses, three multi-story buildings, 1 civilian injured. FPV drone attack on Polohivskyi district. UAF drones continue to destroy RUF artillery and logistics. RUF source claims combat, assault on Kamyanske and Mala Tokmachka. FAB-1500 strike in Zeleny Gai area. Air raid alerts issued and lifted. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB/KAR launches. Two men wounded in Polohivskyi and Vasylivskyi districts. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove. New air raid alert issued. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) en route to/through Zaporizhzhia. RBC-Ukraine and Operatyvnyi ZSU report explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate threat of RUF strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Territory:
  • Belgorod Oblast: Local authorities report UAF drone attacks on bus and vehicles, causing casualties (2 killed, 6 injured). RUF claims advanced 2km on new front section at Belgorod/Kharkiv Oblasts junction. UAF drone strike on civilian vehicle on Shebekino-Belgorod highway confirmed. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports civilian woman injured. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack underway. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports 30 UAF aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed by RUF AD. Additional 10 UAVs detected and destroyed. BRICS leaders condemn attacks on bridges/railway infrastructure (May 31, Jun 01, 05). Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed last night. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kaluga Oblast: 5 UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed by RUF AD. Airport restrictions lifted. FSB identified five accomplices of Kyiv's special services involved in arsons. TASS reports FSB detained Russians in 3 regions for helping Kyiv via phone scammers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kamchatka Krai: Governor reports restrictions on mobile internet and geolocation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk): UAF Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) attacks confirmed on Novorossiysk throughout the night. RUF claims successful repel of some targets. Destroyed USV found. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kursk Oblast: UAF reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults. Putin posthumously named 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Mikhail Gudkov (propaganda). BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Leningrad Oblast (Kirishi/Ust-Luga): Explosion and ammonia leak on Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port, reports of sinking. Kirishi district reports two UAVs shot down. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Lipetsk Oblast (Yelets): "UAV attack threat" lifted. Su-57s observed. Air danger alert issued and lifted. Governor reports massive attack last night, no casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moscow Oblast: 6 UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by RUF AD. High temperatures. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg halted, increased rail transport (disruption confirmed by ASTRA, STERNENKO, TASS, RBC-Ukraine, Shef Hayabusa, Two Mayors). Putin attended forum. RUF source claims enemy attempts to attack Moscow again. Sheremetyevo Airport reports 171 flights cancelled, 56 delayed. Civilian video confirms large crowd. ASTRA reports over 170 flights cancelled at Sheremetyevo and 90 at Pulkovo. "Transport collapse" cost airlines 20 billion rubles. Videos confirm morning drone activity in Krasnozavodsk, Moscow region (smoke plume in residential area, chemical plant target). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Shef Hayabusa posts videos of Krasnozavodsk chemical plant being targeted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: Airport restrictions temporarily introduced/lifted. TASS confirms additional rail cars due to airport restrictions. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier Major Pavlov Oleksandr Mykolaiovych near Kulebaki. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Novgorod Oblast: TASS reports one UAV shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Pskov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced at Pskov airport due to UAV threat, then lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Samara Oblast: Governor transferred significant aid (drones, EW, vehicles) to troops. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • St. Petersburg (Pulkovo Airport): Mass flight delays/cancellations due to UAV threats. ASTRA reports over 90 flights cancelled. TASS reports airport open for reception. Restrictions lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Saratov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced and lifted at Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Tver Oblast: TASS reports three UAVs shot down. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Voronezh Oblast: BRICS leaders condemn attacks on infrastructure. TASS reports several UAVs detected and destroyed. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Dnevnik Desantnika reports train movement restored after UAV debris fell. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • General (RU): RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (likely exaggerated, UAF claims 117/157 neutralized). UAF deep strikes continue to affect Russian air travel. RUF MoD claims 39 UAVs shot down (08:30-14:00 MSK), and additional 48 UAVs. "Protracted Ukrainian UAV attack continues." Satellite imagery indicates possible damage to Borisoglebsk airfield. RUF MoD shows 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing/modernizing drones. New FPV drone video claims "netted" captured UAF drone. TASS confirms flight restrictions. Unconfirmed report of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Ivanovo, Tambov, Yaroslavl. MoD Russia shows military training. Two Mayors video shows RUF AD intercepting drone. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts photos of drones and fundraising messages. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV being tested in Tomsk. TASS reports airline damages of 20 billion rubles. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics." New TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets (psychological operations). Colonelcassad provides photo of downed reconnaissance/attack drone. TASS reports 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. Rybar provides video showcasing intelligence gathering/analysis. Colonelcassad discusses "important information about the channel's work and bots." ASTRA reports proposal in State Duma for new fee on foreign trips. RBC-Ukraine reports airline collapse will cost 20 billion rubles. Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates this claim. Rosaviatsiya claims all airports working normally (contradicting other sources). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Dagestan (Buynaksk): Teenager arrested for alleged terrorist act attempt, district head arrested for fraud. Kadyrov_95 video shows Chechen officials inspecting road and meeting for cultural-sports festival. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • POW Claim: RUF sources claim capture of Stanislav Anatolievich Kostenko from UAF 80th ODShBr, alleging surrender. Butusov Plus claims video shows RUF serviceman alleging torture/abuse by "Somali" unit. TASS video shows Prilepin claiming survival from explosion due to perpetrator error. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts photo/video of deceased individual (likely RUF) captioned "successfully demobilized." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Khabarovsk Krai: Police department recruiting new personnel. Two local women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Russian Issues: Fraudsters bypassing two-factor authentication. Russian government supported bill to increase fines for animal welfare. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. TASS reports 950 cars queue on Crimean Bridge. TASS reports vote of no confidence against EC head Ursula von der Leyen. RF Cabinet of Ministers approved animal treatment plan. Basurin o glavnom posted financial/business snippets. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up at race (internal civilian distraction). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Black Sea: New groups of RUF Shahed UAVs detected from Black Sea, en route to Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts and Kinburn Spit/Dmytrivka/Parutyne. RUF Naval activity includes 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (8 Kalibr), 1 patrol ship. No missile carriers in Sea of Azov. RUF tactical aviation activity in Azov Sea. Ukrainian source explains why Russia deploys submarines but does not fire. Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RUF strikes originating from Black Sea/Crimea. Air Force of Ukraine reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea (now lifted). Air Force of Ukraine reports movement of strike UAVs from Black Sea/Kherson region towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports air alerts due to drones. Two Mayors video shows rocket launch in Crimea. Unsuccessful launch of "Oreshnik" ballistic missile from Crimea towards Odesa (unverified). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports Shahed UAV moving towards Odesa. Air Force of Ukraine reports UAV heading to Odesa from eastern direction. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" drone attacks on targets in Odesa with videos. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF strike killed one person in Odesa. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms significant destruction and firefighting efforts in Odesa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Rotation of IAEA observers confirmed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled as of 070600Z JUL 25. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine: Forecast indicates heat up to +37°C and thunderstorms for the coming week.
• Impact: High temperatures will exacerbate heat stress on personnel and equipment. Thunderstorms may disrupt drone operations, limit air support, and affect ground maneuverability due to muddy conditions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF: Maintaining defensive posture across most sectors. Active counter-drone operations in Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Odesa with successful neutralizations (75 UAVs shot down as of 070635Z, 75/101 total hostile UAVs as of 070636Z). Redeploying units to Sumy direction. Prioritizing air defense against Shahed and ballistic missile threats. Actively using FPV drones against RUF logistics and personnel. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade confirms drone operations. FPV drone footage confirms successful strikes. "Spartan NGU" and "Butusov Plus" videos show successful drone strikes. Appeals for support indicate sustained public support. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopping RUF groups near Torske. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows successful drone strikes on RUF personnel on motorcycles. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations for vehicles. DeepState shows National Guardsmen destroying RUF 152mm artillery. DeepState reports map updated. Butusov Plus reports past UAF night drone successes. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. GSU and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF combat losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. RBC-Ukraine reports injured in Kharkiv transported to hospitals. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports firefighters extinguished fires in Sumy and Odesa. General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos depict solemn moments of silence. "Brigade Khizhak" released video showing effective June strikes in Toretsk, targeting RUF personnel and mortar positions. "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is fundraising for lost equipment/property. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF: Main effort in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Chasiv Yar) with high-intensity assaults. Fixing operations in Kharkiv and Sumy to pin UAF reserves. Continued widespread use of glide bombs and FPV drones. Increased drone and missile activity against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on Kostiantynivka direction. "Voion DV" video of FAB-1500 strike. MoD Russia video shows UAV operators hitting enemy. Rybar tactical analysis of Pokrovsko-Mirnogradskoe direction. Claims Kupyansk under threat of encirclement. MoD Russia video shows soldiers establishing communication links. Colonelcassad videos show RUF 20th and 25th Armies operating. Operation Z reinforces RUF claims of intense fighting near Pokrovsk. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in northeastern direction. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Rybar provides imagery/maps. Colonelcassad video shows 20th Army combat. Alex Parker Returns video shows Russian vehicle/personnel under fire near Kupyansk. Colonelcassad video confirms armored ambulance vehicles in Kherson Oblast. Воин DV reports FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka. Colonelcassad photo messages from SVO front. Thermal imaging video of combat in Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying enemy armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows soldiers building chapel. Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. Colonelcassad discusses neck protection on body armor. Kotsnews video shows drone strike with telemetry. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of enemy armored vehicles and positions. WarGonzo posts multiple "Frontline Summary" updates and tactical maps. Two Mayors provides footage from Pokrovsk direction. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. Colonelcassad video shows "Tula paratroopers" drone work in Sumy border area, targeting UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, manpower, and ammunition. "Operation Z" shares video of Russian army drones destroying enemy on all directions (claims operations in Sumy, Northern, and South-Donetsk directions, showing destruction of lightly armored vehicles). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Control Measures: Widespread air raid alerts across multiple Ukrainian oblasts due to UAV, ballistic missile, and aviation weapon threats (Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv). New ballistic missile threat declared for regions with active alerts, originating from northeast, now lifted. Temporary flight restrictions in various Russian airports due to UAV threats. Russian aviation authorities acknowledge interference but claim sufficient resources (contradicted by ASTRA/TASS). Sternenko reports drone safety measures in multiple Russian oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine reports ongoing threats and UAV movements. Lipetsk Oblast air danger alert. TASS reports RUF AD success over Voronezh. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacking Odesa. Air Force of Ukraine reports UAV heading to Odesa. Kyiv City Military Administration reports new air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat, then all-clear. Air Force of Ukraine confirms ballistic missile threat in alert areas, then lifted. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued a new air raid alert. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities: RUF maintains significant artillery and air support (FAB-1500, FAB-500 confirmed). Sustained ground assaults using mechanized and VDV units. Robust drone and missile attack capabilities demonstrated against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. New confirmation of ballistic missile employment capability from northeast. Effective EW implied by UAF UAV losses. RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities and claims of capturing UAF drones. Colonelcassad claims RUF drone operators shot down 50 Ukrainian reconnaissance drones over Chasiv Yar (some by ramming). MoD Russia video showcases UAV strikes. RUF adapted decoy drones ("Gerbera") into strike platforms. Colonelcassad videos confirm RUF 20th and 25th Armies effective use of artillery and drones. Operation Z videos demonstrate RUF capabilities near Pokrovsk. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas. Alex Parker Returns claims unsuccessful "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch (some limitation). ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts fundraising for drones. Colonelcassad shares video of new multipurpose UAV being tested. Butusov Plus reports past RF vulnerability to UAF drone capabilities. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging video demonstrates continued drone use for targeting. Colonelcassad video shows drone operators destroying armored vehicles with KVN drones. TASS video shows RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. TASS video shows BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets. Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. RUF claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down (indicating robust AD). Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection indicate focus on soldier survivability. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 enemy UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video shows drone-guided artillery. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Shef Hayabusa video highlights RUF AD failures against Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (vulnerability). Two Mayors video shows military convoy in Pokrovsk direction. Rybar's video indicates RUF's advanced intelligence capabilities. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy border area against UAF positions. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging site, personnel, and ammunition. Operation Z video showcases Russian drones destroying enemy armor. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Most capabilities), MEDIUM (Oreshnik missile reliability).
• Intentions:
  • Eastern Axis (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk): Seize Chasiv Yar, consolidate control towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk. Maintain pressure on Pokrovsk. RUF 255th Regiment advances towards Kostiantynivka. RUF source claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye. Rybar analysis suggests advance towards Mirnohrad. Encircle Kupyansk. MoD Russia video showing Russian flag over Poddubnoye. TASS reports Pushilin claims RUF intent to encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Operation Z via Rus Vesna reports ISW assessment on encircling Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk encirclement on roads. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Fix UAF forces, prevent redeployment. Potential for renewed, larger-scale offensive towards Kharkiv (currently shaping). Increased RUF activity in Sumy may indicate new shaping or diversion. TASS reports UAF 1st Tank Brigade on Sumy direction. Air Force reports active tactical aviation in northeast. Colonelcassad video of "Anvar" SpN unit in Sumy/Chernihiv border areas. Воин DV claiming advance of 29th Army in Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy Oblast. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv directions, confirming persistent RUF intent in Sumy against UAF holding positions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fixing), MEDIUM (Larger offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy).
  • Deep Operations: Degrade Ukrainian morale and mobilization by striking TCCs and civilian infrastructure. Air Force reports active strike UAVs and ballistic missile threats. Poltava TCC strike (Colonelcassad). New drone attacks on Kyiv and Odesa. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations due to "hunting." Attacks on Kharkiv with civilian casualties. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports fatality in Odesa. ASTRA confirms 2 killed, 2 injured in Sumy. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Degrade UAF Drone Capabilities: RUF continues to actively target UAF UAV launch/staging sites and attempt to capture UAF drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • MLCOA: Continued high-intensity assaults on Chasiv Yar to secure Kanal microdistrict and attempt canal crossings (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire against UAF. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat operations in Donetsk, utilizing thermal drones. KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics capabilities employed. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building activities (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Continued artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk direction. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • MDCOA: A concerted, large-scale armored thrust towards Kharkiv city from the north, or a new ground offensive in Sumy Oblast, aimed at opening a new front to further stretch UAF defenses, potentially supported by intensified long-range strikes. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • TCC Targeting: Deliberate and repeated targeting of Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs). Video confirms damage. NгП раZVедка expects TCCs to change locations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Combined Attacks: Continued coordinated drone (Shahed) and ballistic missile attacks against civilian/critical infrastructure. Latest strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa confirm tactic, with high civilian casualties. RUF sources report multiple "Geranium" drone attacks. DSNS images confirm residential area attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • VDV Role: Active engagement of VDV units in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Sumy directions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Adaptation in Chasiv Yar: Shift from larger battalion-level assaults to more frequent company-sized mechanized attacks. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics (ramming). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone Sustainment: Dedicated repair/modernization units, claims of capturing UAF drones. Decentralized fundraising for drones. New multipurpose UAV testing. KVN drones for counter-armor. Successful interceptions of UAF reconnaissance/attack drones. Analysis of UAF FPV drone warheads. Rybar's video indicates focus on intelligence for drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Heavy Glide Bomb Employment: Confirmed use of FAB-1500s and FAB-500s. Continued artillery use in Dnipropetrovsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Localized Advances: Explicit RUF claims of advancing after "liberating" Poddubnoye and starting assault on Tolstoy. Video and photos confirm capture of Poddubnoye. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Gerbera" Drone Adaptation: First reported use of "Gerbera" decoy drone as a strike platform against civilian object in Druzhkivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Communication Resilience: MoD Russia video shows soldiers establishing communication links. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moto-Assaults: RUF forces conducting "moto-assaults" (motorcycle-borne infantry) repelled by UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-UAV Systems: Belarusian counter-UAV system observed. RUF initiative to popularize shooting down enemy drones through training. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Special Forces in Border Areas: "Anvar" SpN unit operating in Sumy and Chernihiv border areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Ballistic Missile Experimentation: "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure suggests development/experimentation. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Tactical Training Refinements: "Jeweler's precision" training for stormtroopers in 20th Army. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kupyansk Encirclement TTPs: Deliberate tactical focus on cutting GLOCs around Kupyansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Logistical Support in Occupied Areas: Armored ambulances arriving in Kherson Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone-based Targeting: Thermal imaging video demonstrates continued effective use of drones for targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-Robotics Capabilities: RUF "South" group destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Psychological Operations with Leaflets: BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching propaganda leaflets with QR codes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Morale/Religious Support: Russian soldiers building chapel in Lisichansk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Security Operations: FSB identified accomplices of Kyiv's special services in Kaluga Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained more individuals for assisting Kyiv via phone scams. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Targeting UAF Drone Infrastructure: RUF D-30 howitzers of 25th Combined Arms Army hitting UAF UAV launch/staging sites. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF: Continued ability to sustain offensive operations, including glide bomb and drone usage. Regional governmental support (Samara Oblast). Demonstrated drone repair/modernization. RUF MoD claims destruction of UAF shelters in Sumy Oblast. Appeals for thermal imagers (localized needs). Fundraising for "stormtroopers." Armored ambulances in Kherson. Airline losses (economic impact, confirmed 20 billion rubles). MoD RF demands recovery of rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics" (potential industrial issues). Soldiers building chapel (morale support logistics). Crimean Bridge queue (civilian logistics burden/security). Neck protection in body armor implies sustainment focus. Mobile internet and geolocation restrictions in Kamchatka (internal security/disruption measure). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF: Continued resupply and support. GLOCs into Chasiv Yar under severe fire. 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade publicly soliciting donations for drones (ongoing needs). Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising success. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers appealing for donations. TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation (logistical/MEDEVAC challenges). RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water (civilian infrastructure repair/resource allocation). Rubizh National Guard Brigade is fundraising for lost equipment/gear. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Appears to maintain effective C2 for coordinating multi-domain strikes and ground operations. Putin's public appearances project strong leadership. Internal criticism regarding Maj. Gen. Gudkov's death (some internal C2/tactical discipline issues). Igor Artamonov's video supports state-backed military-industrial complex. Butusov Plus video alleges torture/abuse in "Somali" unit (severe internal C2 issues, discipline). MoD Russia video shows units establishing communication links. Kadyrov_95 video shows integrated civilian/military control. Colonelcassad video shows clear command/coordination during tactical assaults. Alex Parker Returns photo message hints at internal criticism. Colonelcassad's thermal imaging demonstrates integrated drone intelligence. Dnevnik Desantnika reinforces cohesion. Dnevnik Desantnika video shows organized morale effort. TASS reports on EU vote of no confidence (interest in Western political stability). Colonelcassad's photo messages on neck protection imply C2 emphasis on soldier safety. Basurin o glavnom posts financial/business snippets. WarGonzo publishing multiple frontline summaries. Rybar's video emphasizes intelligence gathering for C2. Colonelcassad's message about channel work/bots. RUF sources indicate ongoing (though undefined) Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, with Russia claiming Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" and rejecting terms, suggesting RUF C2 is prepared for prolonged conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Overall C2), MEDIUM (Internal disciplinary issues within specific units, potential for emerging internal criticism).
• UAF: Demonstrating coordinated air defense and effective counter-drone operations. Concerns regarding readiness of some TRO units due to conscription challenges. DeepState video of successful 152mm artillery destruction. Oleg Vilkul reports situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on casualties in Kharkiv and Odesa (rapid reporting, coordination). General Staff of UAF providing tactical analysis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Operatyvnyi ZSU, KMVA videos/photos emphasize daily moments of silence (morale, cohesion). General Staff reports estimated RUF combat losses. Air Force reports 75 UAVs shot down (out of 101 drones and 4 missiles). CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Air defense/counter-drone, targeting), MEDIUM (TRO readiness issues).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains resilient defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Efforts to counter RUF advances and fix forces. DeepState reports map updated. TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. UAF General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" report RUF losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF personnel losses. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupied Lobkove and Poddubnoye (tactical setbacks). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Air Defense: UAF neutralized 75 RUF UAVs as of 070635Z (75/101 total hostile UAVs as of 070636Z), and successfully engaged Shaheds over Kyiv and Odesa. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "minus" for Shaheds. Air Force confirms continued interception. Sternenko video confirms 4 RUF UAVs shot down. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides total "mopeds" count. Air Force reports active tracking and response. ASTRA video messages confirm Kyiv under UAV attack. Sternenko reports morning drone attacks on Krasnozavodsk (UAF deep strike capability). KMVA reports ballistic threat lifted. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Odesa fatality despite active AD. RBC-Ukraine reports 75/101 drones and 0/4 missiles neutralized. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Drone Operations: UAF continues effective use of drones for reconnaissance and precision strikes (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators in Sumy active and soliciting equipment. Sternenko FPV drone footage, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Butusov Plus videos confirm successful strikes. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped RUF groups near Torske. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of repelled RUF moto-assault. DeepState video of 152mm artillery destruction. Butusov Plus highlights past night drone successes. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. Sternenko, Shef Hayabusa, Operatyvnyi ZSU posts on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant confirm UAF deep strikes. Alexey Biloshitsky (Brigade Khizhak) video showcases effective June drone strikes in Toretsk sector. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Challenges: Repeated targeting of TCCs by RUF. Internal discourse on conscription effectiveness and readiness of some newly conscripted personnel (TRO). Claimed capture of UAF 80th ODShBr serviceman (personnel management/evasion issues). RUF attempts to exploit public apprehension (female mobilization). TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation (MEDEVAC/logistical challenges). Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage (27 injured in Kharkiv, 2 wounded in Zaporizhzhia, 2 killed/2 injured in Sumy, 1 killed in Odesa). Damaged heating main in Kyiv (civilian services). Rubizh National Guard Brigade requires funds for destroyed property/equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 RUF attacks, eliminating 147 RUF personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Successful neutralization of 75 RUF UAVs (75/101 total) as of 070636Z, and a high percentage of incoming UAVs over Kyiv and Odesa. Sternenko video confirms 4 RUF UAVs shot down. Ballistic threat in Kyiv lifted. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports active AD despite fatality. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF USV attacks on Novorossiysk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone strikes against RUF artillery/logistics (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). FPV drone footage provides evidence. 63rd Mechanized Brigade stopped RUF groups near Torske. DeepState destroyed RUF 152mm artillery. Past UAF night drone successes (Avdiivka). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. UAF deep strikes on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant confirmed. Alexey Biloshitsky (Brigade Khizhak) video showcases effective June drone strikes in Toretsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone attacks against targets in Leningrad Oblast. Sternenko confirms drone safety concerns in RU. ASTRA confirms ammonia leak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Secret request" for German weapons, Bild published list. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising success for drone equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Unconfirmed reports of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • DeepState reports map updated. DeepState's geo-location capabilities effectively tracking territorial changes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions for Saratov airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Oleg Vilkul reports situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zvizdets Mangust reports UAF holding positions near Yunakivka and Sadki against elite RUF units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Setbacks:
  • RUF claimed capture of Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, and Tolstoy (localized territorial losses confirmed by RUF sources, MoD Russia video, Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Continued RUF pressure on Chasiv Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from persistent RUF drone, missile, and glide bomb attacks (27 injured in Kharkiv, 1 killed in Odesa, 2 killed/2 injured in Sumy). Damage to TCCs, residential buildings, heating main in Kyiv. "Gerbera" decoy drone used as strike drone. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows smoke and fires in Sumy. Photos/videos confirm damage and casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reported UAF drone attack on civilian vehicle in Belgorod Oblast (RUF reporting). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF AD claimed destruction of 3 UAVs over Tver, 1 over Novgorod, successful engagement by 35th Combined Arms Army. TASS reports several UAVs destroyed over Voronezh. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down. Colonelcassad provides photos of downed drone. TASS reports 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Lipetsk Governor reports massive attack repelled. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launch failure (unverified but significant if true). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ongoing drone threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports estimated airline damages of 20 billion rubles due to flight disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery of over 1 billion rubles from JSC "Electroautomatics" (potential procurement challenges). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF claims of destroying two UAF ground robotic systems. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF claims UAF losses due to fatigue and low morale (propaganda). CONFIDENCE: LOW.
  • Khabarovsk Krai Police report two women lost over 5 million rubles to online scam. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TASS reports queue of 950 cars on Crimean Bridge. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports 4/101 missiles neutralized by UAF AD (suggests some missiles successfully impacted). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Rubizh National Guard Brigade reports destroyed property and equipment, requiring fundraising. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Resource Requirements: Continued need for robust air defense systems (ballistic missile interception). Enhanced counter-battery and ISR capabilities for Chasiv Yar. Additional protective equipment and medical supplies for frontline units. Specific requests for generators, drone spare parts, binoculars, drone control goggles (UAF 21st OMBr). Thermal imagers for night vision. Accelerated German weapons delivery. Investment in Ukrainian drones, AI, cyber defense. Humanitarian aid for civilian casualties and infrastructure repair (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kyiv). Funds for equipment/property restoration for Rubizh National Guard Brigade. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Constraints: Degradation of GLOCs into Chasiv Yar. Challenges in rapidly integrating and training new conscripts (TRO units). Alleged internal RUF abuses (potential for UAF exploitation). TASS reports RUF claims of UAF 1st Tank Brigade complaining of wounded and lack of evacuation (MEDEVAC/logistical challenges). Increase in civilian casualties (27 injured in Kharkiv) straining medical/emergency services. Fatality and extensive damage in Odesa and Sumy, stressing emergency response. Kyiv hot water outage due to infrastructure damage. Su-34 bombardier loss (potential constraint on RUF air ops). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF:

  • Hero Worship: Extensive propaganda around Mikhail Gudkov, Putin's attendance at "All for Victory!" forum, signing guitar. Igor Artamonov video. Dnevnik Desantnika aims to foster community/stability. Colonelcassad's interview promoting counter-drone training. "Moments of the SVO" photo messages. "Airborne brotherhood, family" photo. Soldiers building chapel. Neck protection on body armor. Basurin o glavnom historical narratives. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo. WarGonzo frontline summaries. Two Majors video of 61st Marine Brigade thanking supporters, showing medical kit preparation (humanitarian appeal, soldier care). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Narrative Control: Claims of "liberation" (Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, Tolstoy, Zirka), exaggerated UAF losses (120 UAVs, 48 UAVs in 5 hours, 75/101 UAVs, 0/4 missiles shot down, 75 UAVs shot down), RUF claims of destroying 31st UAF Brigade manpower and foreign mercenaries. Rosaviatsia vs. ASTRA/TASS on airport disruptions. Operation Z portrays UAF as targeting civilians. "Voenkor Kotenok" video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Claims Kupyansk encirclement. MoD Russia video of Russian flag over Poddubnoye. Operation Z on "fierce battles" near Pokrovsk. TASS reports Pushilin's claims of encircling Krasnoarmeysk. Colonelcassad photos of Russian flags in Poddubnoye. Operation Z on Ukraine "sliding towards authoritarianism." Rybar's "Chronicle of the special military operation." Rybar's tactical analysis/map of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd. Operation Z via Rus Vesna uses ISW assessment on Pokrovsk encirclement. Alex Parker Returns highlights Kupyansk battle on roads. Alex Parker Returns photo message hints at internal criticism. TASS uses The Economist to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership. TASS claims 4,000 UAF losses (exaggerated). TASS claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. TASS claims UAF suffering losses due to fatigue/low morale. TASS claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. TASS/RBC-Ukraine reporting on Ursula von der Leyen no confidence vote. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. WarGonzo tactical maps. Basurin o glavnom posts non-military content. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove/Poddubnoye. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot for news. Poddubny reports Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" toward negotiations, framing Ukraine as unwilling to pursue peace and implying future proposals will be worse. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • TCC Targeting: RUF sources frame strikes on TCCs as "saving Ukrainian population." Colonelcassad's video on "man-catcher lair" (TCC). NгП раZVедка states TCCs are "hunted." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Domestic Focus: Putin's rhetoric/awards. BRICS declaration condemns sanctions, infrastructure attacks. Lavrov meetings. TASS reports Trump's tariffs on BRICS countries. Colonelcassad video of Russian-Iranian negotiations. TASS reports Trump on Gaza ceasefire. RDIF head on "Global South." Basurin o glavnom on new law against fraudsters. Alex Parker Returns on "hunting Tajiks." TASS quotes Lavrov on US debt. TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. TASS reports social bill for children. Prilepin video on survival. Khabarovsk Police recruitment. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery from "Electroautomatics." TASS reports online scams. TASS reports animal welfare bill. Dnevnik Desantnika video of chapel. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. News of Moscow channel's video on cyclist pile-up (distraction). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Counter-UAV Narrative: MoD Russia footage of drone repair/modernization. Alex Parker Returns video on "netted the flying Khokhol." Colonelcassad claims 50 UAF reconnaissance drones shot down. Colonelcassad videos show destruction of UAF mortar positions. Two Mayors video of Belarusian counter-UAV system. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for "Mavics." Colonelcassad video of new multipurpose UAV testing. Colonelcassad interview promoting counter-drone training. TASS video claims destruction of UAF shelters. Colonelcassad video on KVN drones. TASS video claims RUF "South" group destroyed two UAF ground robotic systems. Colonelcassad photos of downed drone. TASS claims 91 Ukrainian UAVs shot down. Moscow News reports 8 UAVs destroyed over Moscow. Bryansk Governor reports 8 UAVs destroyed. Lipetsk Governor reports massive attack repelled. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed. Kotsnews video with telemetry. Colonelcassad video shows destruction of armored vehicles by drone. Dnevnik Desantnika photo on UAF FPV drone warhead. Rybar's video emphasizes intelligence for counter-UAV. MoD Russia shows D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV launch sites. Operation Z video shows widespread drone attacks on enemy across directions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • POW Exploitation: Video of captured UAF serviceman Kostenko. TASS video of BM-27 Uragan MLRS launching leaflets. TASS video of Prilepin claiming survival. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Public Appeals for Equipment: "Военкоры Русской Весны" appeal for thermal imagers. Two Mayors fundraising for "stormtroopers." ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for drones. Two Majors (Dva Mayora) fundraising for "stormtroopers" in Kostiantynivka direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Realities of Freedom in Ukraine" Narrative: Colonelcassad videos attempting to portray Ukrainian mobilization negatively ("female mobilization"). Poddubny message frames Kyiv's stance on negotiations as unreasonable, implying a lack of desire for peace. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • NATO Expansion Threat: Dnevnik Desantnika claims Azerbaijan wants largest NATO base near Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Terror Tactics" Narrative: Rybar video "Tactics of Terror" (vague, aims to frame UAF). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • "All Inclusive - for Ukraine" Narrative: Two Mayors message aims to portray Ukraine as reliant on external aid. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • UAF Morale Exploitation: TASS reports on UAF 1st Tank Brigade's alleged complaints. TASS reports UAF suffering from fatigue/low morale. Dnevnik Desantnika claims UAF redeployed assault groups to Sumy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Nazi Symbolism" Narrative: Operation Z reports on Ukrainian flag with "Nazi symbolism" and "Azov Nazis" in Germany. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Oreshnik" Failure Narrative: Alex Parker Returns report on "Oreshnik" failure framed as "new and experimental." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • "Human Skull" Imagery: Alex Parker Returns photo titled "Blue helmet" (shock value, dehumanization). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Internal Russian Distractions: "Новости Москвы" on "war on hookah bars." TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. TASS reports social bill for children. TASS on animal welfare. Khabarovsk Police on scams. TASS on Ursula von der Leyen. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. Basurin o glavnom posts non-military content. News of Moscow channel's video on cyclist pile-up (civilian distraction). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • US Military Aid Concerns for Europe: Operation Z disseminating NYT article claiming Europe fears US will cut off access to military equipment updates. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Reward for Ukraine Intelligence: "НгП раZVедка" message about "promised prize" for Kyiv residents providing information for targeting missile warehouses and drone assembly sites. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

• UAF:

  • Counter-Narratives: UAF sources actively counter RUF narratives (e.g., child killed, attacking rescuers). Videos showing successful UAF strikes. Butusov Plus video on RUF torture. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of repelled moto-assault. Sternenko/ASTRA reports on "Gerbera" strike. Operatyvnyi ZSU video of drone strike. DeepState video of artillery destruction. Butusov Plus highlights past night drone successes. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 1100 RUF losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on Kyiv drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports Kharkiv casualties. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports wounded. Oleg Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih controlled. RBC-Ukraine reports 27 injured in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video shows Shahed impact in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Odesa fatality. ASTRA reports Sumy casualties. ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine photos/videos of Kharkiv aftermath. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Oleg Synegubov's photos of damaged buildings/casualties in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms Odesa destruction. Shtirlits posts on RUF losses. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. DSNS images from Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms Odesa fatality despite AD. Butusov Plus provides obituary for Su-34 bombardier. Operatyvnyi ZSU and General Staff of UAF emphasize high number of RUF UAVs neutralized (75/101). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms 75/101 RUF UAVs neutralized. Oleg Synegubov provides video of Kharkiv aftermath, validating RUF impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Transparency/Call for Aid: Public calls for donations (21st OMBr drones, Nikolaevskiy Vanek). Appeals to "send Russians to hell." Nikolaevskiy Vanek's rapid fundraising. "KiberBoroshno" audience engagement. Dnevnik Desantnika shows Ukrainian soldiers requesting donations. RBC-Ukraine reports Sybiha's call for investment. Sternenko links attacks to fundraising. Rubizh National Guard Brigade fundraising for lost property/equipment. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration promotes youth mental health initiative ("Non-Okay, but Honest") as a form of societal resilience and internal support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Highlighting Russian Difficulties: UAF sources highlight Russian airport cancellations, naval issues. Civilian video of crowded Sheremetyevo. Unconfirmed reports of destroyed Russian strategic bomber. RBC-Ukraine on hundreds of flights cancelled. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights confirms cancellations. Shef Hayabusa videos of crowded airports. TASS reports airline losses. "Новости Москвы" video on "transport collapse." Operatyvnyi ZSU quotes Trump on aid. RBC-Ukraine graphic "News for this night." Butusov Plus reports death of Su-34 bombardier. RBC-Ukraine reports 20 billion rubles in airline losses. Operatyvnyi ZSU also reports airline losses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • International Support Publicity: RBC-Ukraine on "secret request" for German weapons. Bild published list. RBC-Ukraine on Trump's deadline. Operatyvnyi ZSU on German equipment list. RBC-Ukraine on Trump's reaction to Musk. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about 10% trade tariffs. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights quotes NATO SecGen Ruttte. RBC-Ukraine video on Trump's aid to Ukraine vs. Israel. RBC-Ukraine/TASS on Ursula von der Leyen vote. RBC-Ukraine graphic "News for this night." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Economic Competition Narrative: Operatyvnyi ZSU on China's ambition to control global manufacturing. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Positive National Imagery: Operatyvnyi ZSU video of Dnipro river. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and Operatyvnyi ZSU videos about daily moments of silence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video highlights youth initiatives. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Honoring Fallen Defenders: KMVA posts photos honoring fallen defenders. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public: Civilian casualties and destruction cause fear/distress. Public celebrations and aid appeals indicate resilience/support for military. Internal debate on conscription methods. Oleg Vilkul's briefing aims to reassure public. Nikolaevskiy Vanek's successful fundraiser demonstrates strong public engagement. RBC-Ukraine reports rising death toll in Bitytsia. Alerts in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa cause fear. New alerts in Kyiv cause anxiety. Increasing casualties in Kharkiv (27 injured) cause significant fear/distress. Two men wounded in Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Vilkul reports Kryvyi Rih controlled (reassurance). Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video on Shahed impact in Kharkiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Odesa fatality. ASTRA reports Sumy casualties. ASTRA reports damaged heating main in Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine photos/videos of Kharkiv aftermath. Confirmed fatality in Odesa. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. Oleg Synegubov's photos of damaged buildings/casualties in Kharkiv. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms Odesa destruction. Operatyvnyi ZSU and KMVA emphasize daily moments of silence. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration video promotes youth mental health initiative, suggesting public need for such support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Public: Putin's rhetoric/awards aim to consolidate support. Domestic security incidents and airport disruptions could cause unease. ASTRA reports widespread flight cancellations. TASS reports 20 billion rubles in airline damages. Internal criticism of Gudkov's death. ASTRA reports civilian violence (Novosibirsk). Butusov Plus video alleges torture/abuse (impact on morale). Trump's tariffs (economic anxiety). Alex Parker Returns video "hunting Tajiks" (frustration with ethnic tensions). TASS reports additional rail cars. RBC-Ukraine reports hundreds of flights cancelled. News of Moscow channel's video (domestic focus). Shef Hayabusa videos of crowded airports. Alex Parker Returns video/photo on "hunting Tajiks." ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ fundraising for military equipment. Colonelcassad screenshot "truth starts to come out!" Alex Parker Returns photo message "They started to guess something." Operation Z on "Azov Nazis" in Germany. TASS reports bill for children. TASS reports MoD RF demands recovery from "Electroautomatics." TASS reports online scams. "Новости Москвы" highlights "transport collapse." TASS reports animal welfare bill. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports drone activity in Krasnozavodsk. Igor Artamonov lifting alert levels. Khabarovsk Police on online scams. TASS reports Crimean Bridge queue. Igor Artamonov reports massive attack on Lipetsk. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. TASS video of Prilepin. Bryansk Governor reports civilian injured. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack on Belgorod. Basurin o glavnom posts non-military content. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники existence implies need for personnel. Dnevnik Desantnika reports train movement restored in Voronezh after UAV debris fell. News of Moscow reports major cyclist pile-up (civilian morale not directly war-related but shows domestic issues). FSB reports on arrests for helping Kyiv via phone scammers indicates internal security focus and public vulnerability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• International Support: Continued military aid from partners (Germany). EU implementing Ukrainian drone experience. Bild published list of German weapons. RBC-Ukraine reports Sybiha's call for investment. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights quotes NATO SecGen Ruttte. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.56): BRICS leaders express hope for "sustainable peaceful settlement" in Ukraine, condemn unilateral sanctions and attacks on Russian infrastructure. Lavrov's meetings with Brazilian and Iranian FMs. TASS reports Trump's tariffs for BRICS-supporting countries. Colonelcassad video of Russian-Iranian negotiations. TASS reports Trump on Gaza ceasefire. RDIF head on "Global South." TASS reports vote of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about tariffs. Poddubny reports Kyiv's "disrespectful attitude" toward negotiations, and rejection of Russian terms. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Diplomatic Initiative: Proposal by [Actor] for [Action] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.16): India to host BRICS summit in 2026. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Geopolitical Shift: Change in [Type of Support] from [Country] to [Recipient] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.08): Israeli Ambassador Brodsky implies potential reduction in Iranian support for Russia. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• US Political Discourse on Ukraine: TASS reports Trump on Musk's party. RBC-Ukraine video asks why Trump not helping Ukraine like Israel. Operation Z disseminating NYT article on Europe fearing US military equipment updates. RBC-Ukraine on Trump's reaction to Musk. TASS reports Trump asked Musk to appoint friend. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts Trump's statement about 10% trade tariffs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Eastern Axis: RUF will intensify efforts to secure Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar and establish bridgehead across Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (combined arms, glide bombs). Consolidate gains on Kostiantynivka direction, advance on Tolstoy and Mirnohrad. Aggressive counter-UAV tactics. Probing towards Torske. RUF 20th and 25th Armies direct fire. Efforts to destroy UAF vehicles around Pokrovsk. Encircle Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and cut UAF logistics. Sustained offensive in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd. RUF 20th Army "jeweler's precision" training. FAB-500 strike near Ivanivka and 29th Army advances. Continued combat in Donetsk (thermal drones). KVN drones destroying armored vehicles. Counter-robotics. Psychological operations (leaflets). Morale-building (chapels). Artillery and drone attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets. Artillery in Voskresenka. Drone-enabled destruction of armored vehicles. WarGonzo tactical maps for Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Sumy. Two Mayors footage from Pokrovsk. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. Poddubny video shows VDV drone work in Sumy. MoD Russia video showing D-30 howitzers hitting UAF UAV sites. Operation Z video showing widespread drone attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Northern Axis: RUF will maintain high-intensity fixing operations around Vovchansk and Lyptsi (glide bombs, localized infantry probes). Expect continued Shahed UAV attacks on Kharkiv. RUF SpN units (Anvar) to conduct reconnaissance/strike missions in border areas. Efforts to encircle Kupyansk focusing on roads. Continue to target UAF transport. Air Force reports UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Zvizdets Mangust reports on Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv. Oleg Synegubov's photos support MLCOA of continued attacks on northern urban centers. DSNS images reinforce expectation of continued attacks on residential areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Direction: RUF will likely continue to build up forces and conduct shaping operations (KAB/KAR strikes, localized ground actions) to stretch UAF resources. RUF MoD will continue to claim destruction of UAF targets. Active UAF drone operations will persist. Two Mayors report explosions. RUF will attempt to exploit perceived UAF readiness issues. Claims of UAF redeployment to Sumy as justification for escalation. RUF UAV activity from Sumy into Poltava will continue. Dnevnik Desantnika's claim of UAF assault group redeployment. Expect continued RUF attacks on civilian infrastructure. WarGonzo tactical map for Sumy. Zvizdets Mangust reports combat near Yunakivka and Sadki. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Deep Strikes: RUF will continue systematic long-range strikes against Ukrainian TCCs, energy infrastructure, and other critical civilian targets. Animated strike map from Colonelcassad. Latest attacks on Kyiv and Odesa. Ballistic missile threats from northeast. RUF will adapt drone types for strike roles ("Gerbera"). Air Force alerts confirm ongoing threat. Development of new advanced missile systems ("Oreshnik"). Air Force reports ongoing Shahed UAV movements. Lipetsk Oblast air danger alert. TASS reports RUF AD success over Voronezh. ASTRA reports UAVs shot down over Novgorod, Tver, Voronezh. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Saratov. Odesa Oblast Military Administration reports RUF drone attacks. Air Force reports UAV heading to Odesa. NгП раZVедка messaging confirms RUF intent to target missile warehouses/drone assembly sites in Kyiv. Increasing casualties in Kharkiv. Artillery and drone attacks on Dnipropetrovsk civilian areas. Confirmed civilian casualties in Kharkiv (27 injured) and Odesa (1 killed). Damaged heating main in Kyiv. RUF sources post aftermath of night attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv. Shef Hayabusa videos on Krasnozavodsk chemical plant targeting. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings in Kyiv without hot water. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Information Operations: RUF will amplify narratives around UAF drone attacks on civilian targets in Russia. Continue to exploit POWs. Leverage BRICS statements. Amplify Trump's tariffs. Exploit female mobilization. Leverage captured Poddubnoye. Push narratives of Ukrainian "authoritarianism" and "Nazi symbolism." Use images of civilian inconvenience. Highlight domestic law enforcement. Promote "Global South" narratives. Leverage UAF tactical successes (Avdiivka night drones) to justify own actions. Exploit command control issues ("truth coming out"). Sow doubt about US military aid. Intensify portrayal of Ukrainian nationalist elements. Incite espionage in Kyiv. Use Electroautomatics legal action to project accountability. Disseminate exaggerated UAF losses. Use psychological operations (leaflets). Focus on domestic issues. Claim UAF fatigue/low morale. Highlight internal issues (scams, Crimean Bridge traffic). Focus on Western political discord. Use Prilepin's claims. Use "DAY in HISTORY" narratives. Project professionalism of special forces. WarGonzo daily summaries. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack on Belgorod. Basurin o glavnom posts non-military content. Rybar's video on intelligence. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники uses bot. TASS reports FSB identified accomplices in Kaluga. RUF will leverage occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. RUF will continue to frame Kyiv as unwilling to negotiate for peace. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Northern Offensive: A coordinated, large-scale offensive by RUF ground forces, possibly leveraging new units observed moving towards Sumy, to open a new major front in Sumy Oblast or launch a renewed thrust directly towards Kharkiv city. Such an offensive would aim to significantly expand the front line and overwhelm UAF's defensive capabilities, potentially forcing a reallocation of critical reserves from other sectors. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• Breakthrough at Chasiv Yar: A rapid and decisive RUF breakthrough across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, leading to the collapse of UAF defenses in the immediate area and rapid RUF advance towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka. This would necessitate a major UAF fighting withdrawal and repositioning, with significant loss of terrain and strategic depth. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Chasiv Yar: RUF will likely attempt to consolidate control of Kanal microdistrict and attempt canal crossings within the next 24-72 hours. UAF decision point: Evaluate ability to hold Kanal microdistrict vs. planned withdrawal.
• Kharkiv/Sumy: Increased RUF activity in Sumy suggests potential for escalation within the next 72-96 hours. UAF decision point: Determine if RUF intent in Sumy is fixing or preparatory for larger offensive. RUF claims of Kupyansk encirclement will likely be followed by increased pressure in next 24-48 hours. Expect continued Shahed UAV attacks on Kharkiv in the next 12-24 hours. Immediate threat in Kharkiv requires defensive action within the next 1-12 hours given rising casualties (27 injured). Expect continued RUF reconnaissance/attack UAV activity in northern Kharkiv with eastern course. Dnevnik Desantnika reports massive drone attack on Belgorod, expecting continued attacks in next 12-24 hours. Oleg Synegubov's photos indicate ongoing impact in Kharkiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Dnipropetrovsk: RUF claimed FAB-500 strike and 29th Army advance indicates continued pressure, expect further strikes/probes in next 24-48 hours. Continued artillery and drone attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets expected in next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• TCC Strikes: Expect continued RUF strikes on TCCs and critical infrastructure in the coming week. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava: Expect continued RUF UAV activity from Sumy towards Poltava in the next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad: RUF stated intent to assault Tolstoy and analysis on Mirnohrad suggests increased pressure in next 48-96 hours. RUF claims of encircling Pokrovsk suggest sustained effort. UAF decision point: Evaluate immediate defensive reinforcements and counter-attack opportunities. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports RUF occupation of Poddubnoye implies continued consolidation in next 24-48 hours. Two Majors fundraising for stormtroopers in Kostiantynivka direction indicates continued RUF pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Odesa/Black Sea Strikes: Expect continued RUF Shahed drone activity from Black Sea towards Odesa/Mykolaiv in next 12-24 hours. Immediate clean-up/damage assessment efforts in Odesa in next 1-12 hours. Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights video confirms significant damage, implying continued risk of strikes in next 12-24 hours and ongoing emergency response in next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kyiv Strikes: While immediate threat lifted, expect continued RUF Shahed drone activity targeting Kyiv in next 24-48 hours. RUF intent to target missile warehouses/drone assembly sites. Overnight attack indicates persistent threat, requiring vigilance in next 1-24 hours. UAF deep strike efforts into Russia (Krasnozavodsk) will likely persist in next 12-24 hours. Repairs to damaged heating main in next 1-12 hours. New air raid alert for ballistic missile threat indicates potential for further strikes in next 1-6 hours. RBC-Ukraine reports 500 buildings without hot water. KMVA reports new alerts for ballistic threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (Northeast): While immediate threat lifted, expect continued ballistic missile threats originating from northeast in next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• DeepState Map Update: Expect ongoing, continuous tactical adjustments and map updates. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Internal UAV Threat: Morning drone activity in Krasnozavodsk suggests UAF deep strike operations will continue in next 12-24 hours. Igor Artamonov reports massive attack on Lipetsk, indicating continued UAF deep strikes. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 91 UAVs destroyed, indicating continued AD responses in next 12-24 hours. Shef Hayabusa videos confirm ongoing deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled. Continue monitoring for changes in next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Sumy Civilian Impact: Given fatalities/damaged houses, expect continued emergency response/humanitarian aid in next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kaluga Oblast Sabotage: Expect continued Russian counter-intelligence operations in next 24-72 hours. FSB reports on arrests for helping Kyiv via phone scammers indicate continued internal security focus. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian Internal Travel Disruptions: Expect continued domestic travel disruptions due to UAV threats in next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF Drone Operations (Toretsk): Expect continued UAF drone strikes in Toretsk in next 12-24 hours as shown by Brigade Khizhak. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Russian UAV Sites: Expect RUF to continue targeting UAF UAV launch/staging sites in next 12-24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia: Expect continued RUF UAV threats in Zaporizhzhia in next 1-12 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

6.1. Intelligence Gaps

• RUF Reserve Composition (Eastern Axis): Detailed information on RUF operational reserves behind Chasiv Yar (location, strength, readiness, designation). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Intent (Sumy/Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk): Precise determination of RUF's strategic intent in Sumy (fixing, new advance, diversion). Conditions for renewed major RUF offensive towards Kharkiv. Specific intent behind Kupyansk encirclement claims. Operational significance of 29th Army advance in Dnipropetrovsk and nature of attacks on civilian areas (specifically Yanvarskoye). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Ballistic Missile Capabilities (Northeast): Identification of specific launch systems and origin locations. Assessment of accuracy and targeting patterns. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Submarine Operational Status: Clarification on readiness and capabilities (technical issues, tactical constraints, deception?). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• UAF POW Verification: Full verification of claimed UAF 80th ODShBr POW and circumstances of capture. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Impact of FAB-1500/FAB-500 on UAF Defenses: Specific tactical assessment of effectiveness against UAF defenses. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Internal Discipline/Morale: Verification and assessment of scope and impact of alleged torture/abuse within RUF units. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Strategic Bomber Destruction: Independent verification of claimed destruction (type, location, method). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Gerbera Drone Capabilities: Detailed analysis of payload, accuracy, and range in strike role. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Moto-Assault TTPs: Detailed assessment of tactics, force composition, objectives. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• UAF 1st Tank Brigade Status (Sumy): Independent verification of RUF claim (wounded, logistical challenges). (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Belarusian Counter-UAV System: Detailed technical assessment (capabilities, range, impact). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• "Oreshnik" Missile Status: Independent verification of launch failure. Technical analysis of cause and implications. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Tactical Training Changes: Analysis of changes in stormtrooper training and impact on assault tactics. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Internal Dissent/Criticism: Further assessment of source and scope of internal criticism. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Domestic Security Focus: Analysis of scope and targets of law enforcement actions (internal stability, mobilization, social control, impact of phone scams). (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Mass Counter-Drone Training Impact: Assess potential impact on AD effectiveness and implications for UAF drone operations. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• "Azov Nazis" Propaganda Effectiveness: Analyze target audience and effectiveness. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Russian Defense Industrial Base Issues: Investigate specific reasons for MoD RF legal action against JSC "Electroautomatics." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Anti-Robotics Capabilities: Assess extent of capabilities and deployment. Identify systems used and impact on UAF UGV ops. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Losses Assessment (LNR claims): Independent verification of actual Ukrainian losses to counter disinformation. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Unidentified Aircraft/Drone in Krasnozavodsk: Identify type/purpose. Investigate smoke plume. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Psychological Operations Effectiveness: Assess reach and perceived effectiveness of leaflet propaganda. (LOW PRIORITY)
• RUF Morale/Religious Support Structures: Determine scope and purpose of building religious structures. (LOW PRIORITY)
• Russian Internal Crime/Traffic Issues: Assess impact on public morale, resource allocation, state resilience (e.g., impact of transport collapse on public trust/economy). (LOW PRIORITY)
• Russian Body Armor Enhancements: Investigate specific design/material changes for neck protection and assess impact. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Specific RUF Artillery Targets (Voskresenka): Identify nature of "planned targets." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• UAF FPV Drone Warhead Analysis: Internal analysis of captured UAF FPV drone warheads. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• WarGonzo Map Details: Obtain full content of tactical maps for specific positions, control lines, movements. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Shtirlits Demobilized Analysis: Full analysis of photo/video messages (identity, circumstances, intelligence value). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Impact of Diplomatic Shift (Iran): Determine implications of potential reduction in Iranian support for RUF. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Russian Internal Information Environment Control: Analyze intent and effectiveness of non-military posts. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Military Recruitment & Discipline: Obtain concrete information on recruitment mechanisms, verify extent of alleged abuses. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• RUF Tactical Gains in Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: Immediate, independent verification of claimed occupation of Lobkove and Poddubnoye. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• Impact of Kyiv Hot Water Outage: Assess full extent, expected duration, and impact on civilian morale/services. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• RUF Negotiation Stance: Deep dive into RUF's stated negotiating conditions and their genuine flexibility or inflexibility. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Rubizh Brigade Losses: Detailed assessment of equipment and property losses of "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
• Kamchatka Internet Restrictions: Understand the scope, duration, and rationale behind these restrictions. (LOW PRIORITY)

6.2. Collection Requirements

• ISR (IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT): Prioritize collection on RUF rear areas (Belgorod, Kursk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk) for force build-up, logistics, troop movements. Identify origin/launch platforms of ballistic missiles from northeast. Monitor RUF drone activity and counter-UAV tactics over Chasiv Yar. Focus on Kupyansk area for encirclement indicators. Monitor for further RUF "moto-assaults." Monitor RUF drone operations with KVN drones or modified models. Observe RUF anti-robotics efforts. Immediately investigate Krasnozavodsk (Moscow Oblast) activity. Monitor RUF movements in Poltava (UAVs from Sumy). Monitor Kharkiv for drone impacts. Monitor Kyiv for drone attacks and consequences. Monitor Nikopol and Marhanets for attacks. Monitor Kryvyi Rih for changes. Monitor RUF air force activity at airfields. Assess damage to Kyiv's heating main. Monitor Odesa for emergency response/damage. Investigate RUF artillery targets in Voskresenka. Analyze WarGonzo maps. Monitor RUF targeting of UAF UAV launch/staging sites. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• SIGINT/HUMINT: Collect on RUF C2 communications for insights into assessments, objectives, timelines. Prioritize understanding RUF tactical decision-making. Collect on RUF drone communication (Gerbera ops). Specifically collect on UAF 1st Tank Brigade status. Develop sources in occupied territories for RUF logistics, morale, personnel issues. Investigate claims of internal RUF abuses. Seek independent confirmation of strategic bomber destruction. Investigate MoD RF legal action against "Electroautomatics." Collect on RUF negotiation positions. (HIGH PRIORITY)
• OSINT/Media Monitoring: Monitor Russian military channels and state media for submarine ops, POW exploitation, equipment appeals, tactical analysis (Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, Kupyansk). Monitor for strategic bomber visual evidence. Monitor RUF channels for "moto-assaults." Monitor TASS/official channels for UAF unit status claims, propaganda. Monitor for details on Belarusian counter-UAV system, "Oreshnik" missile, tactical training, "truth coming out" narratives. Monitor for psychological operations (leaflets). Monitor domestic policy discussions. Monitor US military aid narratives. Monitor domestic security operations. Monitor counter-drone training. Monitor "Azov Nazis" propaganda. Monitor incitement to espionage in Kyiv. Monitor Trump's tariff statements. Monitor exaggerated UAF losses. Monitor claims of UAF fatigue/low morale. Monitor morale-building activities. Monitor internal crime/traffic issues. Monitor RUF neck protection details. Monitor Basurin o glavnom for historical narratives. Monitor RUF sources for Kharkiv Shahed impact. Monitor Operatyvnyi ZSU/ASTRA for Sumy casualties. Monitor Operatyvnyi ZSU for Odesa strike. Monitor RUF sources for Kyiv heating main. Monitor Zvizedets Mangust for tactical insights. Monitor Dnevnik Desantnika for captured UAF drone components. Monitor Shtirlits for RUF personnel losses. Monitor RBC-Ukraine for Kyiv hot water situation. Monitor Basurin o glavnom for non-military posts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники for recruitment. Monitor Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights/DeepState for confirmation of Lobkove/Poddubnoye. Monitor Poddubny's statements on negotiations. Monitor Rubizh National Guard Brigade's fundraising for details on losses. Monitor Kamchatka governor's statements on internet restrictions. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. For Joint Operations Command (EAST):

   • Counter-Battery Priority: Immediately allocate maximum available counter-battery fire assets to Chasiv Yar axis (artillery, HIMARS) to degrade RUF artillery/mortar, target GLOCs, and support canal crossing attempts. Pre-plan fires on RUF concentrations and crossing points. Prioritize destruction of detected RUF 152mm artillery.
   • Defensive Layering: Reinforce defensive positions west of Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal with additional anti-tank/anti-personnel obstacles. Conduct immediate re-evaluation of defensive lines/fall-back positions in Kostiantynivka, assess Mirnohrad threats. Reinforce 63rd Mechanized Brigade in Torske area with counter-mobility assets and ISR.
   • ISR Overmatch: Prioritize ISR assets (MALE UAVs, SIGINT) for constant surveillance over key RUF maneuver areas/GLOCs in Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk for early warning. Immediately assess impacts of FAB-1500/FAB-500. Implement advanced counter-drone tactics (learning from RUF ramming). Prioritize detection/neutralization of repurposed RUF strike drones ("Gerbera"). Immediately verify and address tactical implications of RUF claimed occupation of Poddubnoye and Lobkove. Continue and enhance drone operations as demonstrated by Brigade Khizhak in Toretsk.

2. For Joint Operations Command (NORTH):

   • Targeting FAB Platforms: Prioritize targeting of known RUF FAB glide bomb launch platforms (Su-34s, airfields, logistics) to reduce attacks on Kharkiv/Sumy. Exploit reported loss of Su-34 bombardier.
   • Reserve Allocation Review: Reassess tactical/operational reserves in Kharkiv-Sumy. Maintain high readiness for rapid deployment against offensive shift. Accelerate provision of critical drone equipment to frontline units (21st OMBr). Prioritize night vision.
   • Enhanced Counter-UAV/EW: Deploy additional anti-drone systems and EW capabilities against RUF FPV/reconnaissance UAVs. Prepare for increased RUF ground probing and offensive in Kupyansk (especially roads). Immediately investigate RUF claims on 1st Tank Brigade status. Maintain vigilance for RUF SpN activity in border areas. Prioritize defense of Kharkiv against drone attacks (additional AD assets). Prevent RUF strikes on UAF transport. Enhance capabilities to track/intercept RUF UAVs in northern Kharkiv. Reinforce UAF positions near Yunakivka and Sadki in Sumy.

3. For Joint Operations Command (CENTER):

   • Dnipropetrovsk Defense: Reinforce air defense/counter-battery assets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (targeting FAB-500 strikes, 29th Army advances). Prioritize ISR to monitor RUF ground probing. Enhance air defense/counter-artillery in Nikopol and Marhanets.

4. For Joint Operations Command (SOUTH):

   • Air Defense Reinforcement: Prioritize allocation of air defense assets to Odesa/Mykolaiv oblasts against RUF Shahed UAV attacks from Black Sea.
   • Naval Surveillance: Increase ISR efforts on RUF naval activity in Black Sea/Sea of Azov (missile carriers, submarine deployments).

5. For General Staff (UAF):

   • Mobilization Strategy Adjustment: Urgent review of TCC operations and mobilization strategies (public concerns, equitable recruitment, RUF propaganda mitigation). Consider public-private partnerships for equipment. Proactively counter RUF narratives on female mobilization. Adjust TCC locations and security measures. Allocate immediate funds for Rubizh National Guard Brigade to restore lost equipment/property.
   • Strategic Reserve Positioning: Maintain flexible and readily deployable strategic reserve for Eastern, Northern, or Central axes.
   • Air Defense Enhancement (Northeast): Prioritize immediate allocation/deployment of advanced ballistic missile defense systems to threatened areas.
   • International Support Coordination: Advocate for accelerated delivery of AD systems. Coordinate on RUF EW challenges. Expedite "secret request" for German weapons. Prioritize diplomatic efforts for counter-air capabilities (if bomber destruction verified). Emphasize investment in Ukrainian drone, AI, cyber defense technologies. Actively engage NATO allies on burden-sharing. Actively monitor/counter RUF information operations on US military aid. Leverage any verifiable reduction in Iranian support for Russia.
   • Naval Assessment: Detailed assessment of RUF Black Sea Fleet submarine activity. Analyze "Oreshnik" missile failure.
   • Counter-Propaganda: Proactively counter RUF narratives (Belgorod drone strike). Emphasize UAF adherence to LOAC. Communicate rapidly on captured personnel. Leverage combat footage for morale. Exploit verified RUF abuses. Strategically address Kupyansk encirclement claims. Counter RUF claims on UAF unit readiness. Counter RUF narratives of "authoritarianism" and "Nazi symbolism." Proactively address/exploit Russian domestic issues (airport disruptions, migrant roundups). Publicly highlight Russian domestic issues and impact on civilian life. Maintain focus on national pride. Discredit RUF "truth" narratives. Leverage US internal political discussions. Develop countermeasures and messaging for RUF "Azov Nazis" propaganda. Consider adapting decentralized counter-drone training initiatives. Develop proactive messaging against RUF incitement to espionage in Kyiv. Monitor/exploit issues in Russian defense industrial base. Proactively counter RUF disinformation on Ukrainian losses. Develop/deploy capabilities to counter RUF ground robotic systems. Investigate internal security issues (fraud). Develop counter-messaging to RUF leaflet propaganda. Counter RUF claims of UAF fatigue/low morale. Use official channels to report RUF losses. Amplify impact of UAF deep strikes on Russia (Crimean Bridge, Moscow/Lipetsk). Emphasize human cost of RUF urban attacks (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia). Counter RUF AD claims by highlighting drone penetration. Publicly acknowledge/address civilian infrastructure damage (Kyiv heating main). Highlight civilian fatalities/injuries in Odesa/Sumy. Integrate WarGonzo map information into planning. Leverage Shtirlits' posts on RUF losses. Proactively address Kyiv hot water outage. Leverage Su-34 bombardier death as counter-propaganda. Actively counter RUF propaganda on Lobkove/Poddubnoye. Counter RUF narrative on negotiation "disrespect" by clearly articulating Ukrainian position and conditions. Promote youth mental health initiatives as part of national resilience.

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