Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-05 18:36:48Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-05 18:04:23Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT 051830Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. Enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south. KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 26 casualties in Kyiv as of 0937Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. Partial traffic disruption confirmed. Severe structural damage to residential buildings, including a multi-story building engulfed in fire, confirmed by multiple sources. RBK-Ukraina reports 5 ambulances damaged in Kyiv due to the night attack, with no medical personnel casualties. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0543Z. Threat of collapse in a damaged five-story building in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv, reported. KVMVA states 550 air attack assets were launched by Russia against Ukraine, with almost all targeting Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports KVMVA statement re: "one of the largest combined attacks." OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports over 20 damaged locations and over 20 casualties in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos of significant damage from night attacks in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged Nova Poshta branches in Kyiv. Damaged book publishing warehouse "Nash Format" in Kyiv confirmed. Polish consulate in Kyiv was damaged during massed strike. RUF MoD claims a massed strike by RF Aerospace Forces on military infrastructure in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged DTEK equipment and destroyed two transformer substations in Kyiv during the attack. Basurin o Glavnom posts video claiming "Kyiv underground" destroyed a UAF vehicle "in broad daylight," showing a burning vehicle. KVMVA reports a fatality found in Sviatoshynskyi district during cleanup. RBK-Ukraina also reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Tsaplienko also reports at least one fatality in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports circular electric train traffic has been restored in Kyiv. ASTRA reports a civilian fatality in Kyiv. KVMVA posts video confirming damage to a fire-rescue unit, windows blown out, facade damaged, but no personnel casualties. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts photo message indicating several "Gerbera" (likely Shahed) drones shot down over Kyiv had cameras, CRPA antennas, and radio modems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates this information, claiming these were shot down overnight. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and that UAF believes RUF has repeaters near Kyiv to extend range to Bryansk Oblast. Oleksii Biloshytskyi posts video highlighting night attacks on Kyiv. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a damaged Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River near Kyiv. KVMVA posts new photo messages of damaged buildings and vehicles in Kyiv, underscoring the "terrorist act" by Russia. РБК-Україна posts police footage from night in Kyiv showing "All in shelter! Lie down!" commands and emergency response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming to show the moment a drone hit a residential building in Kyiv. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo message "Удар по Киеву – город в дыму," confirming visual effects of the strike. Alex Parker Returns video showing explosion with mushroom cloud and agricultural sprayer vehicle, captioned "У хохлов это обычный четверг." This appears to be a RUF BDA video for a target in Ukraine, but the location is not specified beyond "Ukraine" (У хохлов). The presence of the agricultural sprayer suggests a civilian or dual-use target. This video does not contradict prior Kyiv reporting but represents a separate, likely significant, impact. RBK-Ukraina video featuring Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones during the night attack. SBU detained a spotter who was guiding missiles and drones to Kyiv. Colonelcassad video shows a damaged fixed-wing drone, resembling a "Gerbera," floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv, which RUF claims is a decoy. РБК-Україна reports RUF launched "Shaheds" from multiple directions. Kyiv air raid alert. RUF UAV threat to Kyiv/Chernihiv. 1x Shahed flying towards/through Boryspil/Kyiv. UAF AD operating in Kyiv Oblast. Explosions in Kyiv. KVMVA warns residents not to leave shelters. RBK-Ukraina reports large number of attack drones in air raid regions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports large number of attack drones in air raid regions. UAF Air Force reports attention for Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports first arrivals of "Geraniums" as evening raid begins, and enemy expects 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborate this. RBK-Ukraina reports AD working in Kyiv. KVMVA reports UAV threat remains. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the primary vector for RUF strike UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. RBK-Ukraina also provides an update on RUF drone movement, including a tactical analysis of a provided image indicating drone paths. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims "Ресурс зенитных установок типа "Гепард" и других в Киieve практически исчерпан, - депутат Рады". Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." КМВА reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. RBK-Ukraina also reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. New Update: UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: KVMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports Kyiv under air raid alert. RBK-Ukraina confirms air raid alert in Kyiv. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1x Shahed (moped) flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms air raid alert due to UAV threat. New message: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1x Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). New message: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on Kyiv Oblast, moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts two video messages depicting buildings engulfed in flames at night, with emergency services present, indicating significant damage. New message: РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was affected by night drone attacks, with a photo message showing emergency services. This confirms ongoing damage assessment and response. New message: ТАСС reports that the Russian MoD says two UAVs flying towards Moscow have been destroyed by PVO forces, citing Moscow Mayor Sobyanin. This indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts and RUF AD response. New message: ASTRA confirms Mayor Sobyanin's report on two UAVs flying towards Moscow being repelled. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 292 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This is a UAF claim of successful AD operations. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia launched 322 drones against Ukraine last night. This confirms a high volume of RUF aerial attacks. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 292/322 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This corroborates the UAF Air Force claim and provides a ratio of neutralization. New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged. New message: РБК-Україна reports that emergency rescue operations have resumed in Kyiv at the sites of yesterday's hits. This indicates continued efforts to mitigate the damage from previous attacks. New message: РБК-Україна reports increased casualties in Kyiv (from 4 July attack). New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports a car accident involving a truck on the Kyiv-Odesa highway (M-05) at 89km, near Bila Tserkva. New message: TASS reports that PVO repelled a UAV attack flying towards Moscow, citing Mayor Sobyanin. New message: ASTRA corroborates that PVO forces shot down a drone flying towards Moscow, citing Sobyanin. New message: RBK-Ukraina video shows a sniper successfully shooting down a Shahed over Kyiv using thermal/night vision footage. New message: Zelenskiy / Official and KVMVA videos showcase Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian military and industrial facilities, including airfields, manufacturing plants, and oil refineries across Bryansk, Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Voronezh, Tambov, and Saratov, noting a significant reduction in Russian artillery shell usage after strikes on their arsenals. This suggests a shift in focus for UAF deep strikes to reduce enemy logistics. New message: Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv RMA) also shares the same Zelenskiy video message, indicating coordinated messaging. New message: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports Kyiv under air raid alert. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Uvaga! (Attention!) alert. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger across all of Ukraine due to MiG-31K takeoff. New message: РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine due to MiG-31K takeoff. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports MiG-31K takeoff, alert across all of Ukraine. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. New message: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports MiG-31K takeoff, carrier of "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kinzhal" vector Chernihiv/Zhytomyr/Starkon! New message: РБК-Україна reports high-speed target in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports high-speed target in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. New message: STERNENKO reports MiG-31 takeoff, alert across all of Ukraine. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile continues movement towards Zhytomyr Oblast! New message: STERNENKO reports "Kinzhal" heading west. New message: РБК-Україна photo message reports "Kinzhal" course towards Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: РБК-Україна photo message of UAF Air Force message on "Kinzhal" towards Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile course towards Starokostiantyniv! New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports course towards Starokostiantyniv! New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports missile course towards Starokostiantyniv - UAF Air Force. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kinzhal" approaching Starkon. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile in Chernihiv Oblast - southwest course. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports missile in Chernihiv Oblast, southwest course. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports another "Kinzhal" vector Nizhyn/Zhytomyr/Starkon! New message: РБК-Україна reports repeated "Kinzhal" launch. Missile in Chernihiv Oblast - southwest course. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile in Zhytomyr Oblast, course towards Starokostiantyniv. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kinzhal" approaching Starkon field. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports another "minus" (interception). New message: РБК-Україна reports this missile also on course towards Starokostiantyniv. New message: Военкор Котенок reports third explosion in an hour at Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: WarGonzo reports RUF Aerospace Forces struck Starokostiantyniv airfield with 2 Kinzhals. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Loud explosive sounds in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts are from the flight of a Kinzhal missile. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Відбій загрози по МіГ-31К. This indicates the MiG-31K threat for Kyiv has ended. New message: РБК-Україна reports UPD. Відбій загрози по МіГ-31К. This confirms the end of the MiG-31K threat for Kyiv. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Пішли відбої. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Відбій загрози застосування балістичного озброєння. This indicates the immediate ballistic missile threat to southern Ukraine has ended. New message: ТАСС reports Telegram users complaining of outages, mainly in Moscow. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing Trump's "favorite newspaper" calling for renewed military aid to Ukraine. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and National Police detained a RUF agent who detonated a car in Odesa today, with video and photos of the agent and scene. New message: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskiy and Trump's call was "best so far," with Trump willing to help with Patriots. New message: STERNENKO posts video and photos of the detained agent and the damaged car in Odesa, confirming the explosion was an SBU/National Police operation against a RUF agent. New message: Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing a damaged UGV, described as "wounded Ukrop (Ukrainian) trying to evacuate with an unmanned robotic platform," then claimed "hungry dogs" found it and "good Russian people helped the starving animals," implying destruction of the UGV and an injured UAF soldier. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV threat in Sumy Oblast. New message: MoD Russia posts an FPV drone video claiming "Combat work of the 'WEST' group" and "Combat work of FPV drone crews of the 'RUBICON' center," showing a strike on a 155mm self-propelled artillery piece. New message: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskiy announced new agreements regarding gas for Ukraine. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Zelenskiy's evening address, focusing on new gas agreements. New message: Colonelcassad reports mass internet outages for some operators and services, with photos of app logos. New message: Alex Parker Returns posts photos titled "The puzzle has come together," which appears to be a social media screenshot. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows a cemetery with many fresh graves, Russian flags, and references to "VDV" and 2024, implying significant RUF losses. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photos of Russian raids to identify individuals involved in "neo-Nazi underground" used by Ukrainian special services for sabotage in Russia. New message: ТАСС reports Pushkov believes Rutte's comments on China and Russia are the "main political stupidity of the year." New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) share a video summarizing weekly achievements and cooperation with Ukraine's friends, highlighting resilience and foreign support. New message: РБК-Україна posts photos reporting Rutte predicts a new war where China incites Putin against NATO. New message: РБК-Україна posts photos reporting a teenager was electrocuted to death at a train station in Nizhyn, with a 19-year-old girl in intensive care. New message: Два майора posts a video titled "The most ordinary 'train' at the airfield," showing several individuals moving missile-like ordnance on wheeled platforms on a tarmac, implying logistical activity. New message: Игорь Артамонов reports the red level "UAV attack threat" has been lifted for Yelets and Yelets district. New message: ASTRA reports RUF MoD claims 48 UAVs destroyed over Russian regions from 13:50 to 19:00 MSK. New message: ТАСС reports RUF MoD claims 48 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in five hours. New message: Два майора posts a video titled "In Azerbaijan, they remembered the so-called Ukraine," likely related to Azerbaijani-Ukrainian relations. New message: Colonelcassad reports traffic has been restored on the Crimean Bridge. New message: Операция Z reports RUF again attempting to attack Moscow and other regions, citing "Voenkor Russkaya Vesna." New message: STERNENKO reports Zelenskiy: "The conversation with Trump was probably the best ever." New message: Два майора posts video showing an individual resembling Donald Trump on a subway train. This is civilian content with potential propaganda value. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message captioned "Kharkiv direction." This indicates continued RUF focus on this axis. New message: РБК-Україна posts photo message of Zelenskiy reacting to Texas floods and expressing condolences. This is civilian and diplomatic content. New message: Colonelcassad posts video showcasing the 'GIDS Shahpar-III' UAV, highlighting its capabilities, payload, and range. This indicates a new, advanced drone in the Pakistani Air Force, relevant for understanding global drone development, but not directly for current battlefield geometry in Ukraine. New message: РБК-Україна posts video showcasing a new Ukrainian firefighting robot, 'Zmiy,' demonstrating its capabilities. This is UAF resilience and technological advancement, but not direct battlefield geometry. New message: ASTRA reports over 120 flights canceled and dozens delayed at Sheremetyevo airport. This is a significant disruption to Russian civilian air travel. New message: ТАСС posts photo message about Rutte's statement to NYT that reduction of US military presence in Europe is not discussed. This is diplomatic/geopolitical, indicating continued NATO posture. New message: РБК-Україна reports "Kinzhal" attack on Starokostiantyniv was without consequences. This is a critical UAF BDA, suggesting successful AD or no impact. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message confirming SBU and National Police detained a RUF agent who detonated a car in Odesa today. This is a successful UAF counter-sabotage operation. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Kharkiv Oblast! This confirms continued RUF use of glide bombs. New message: Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "It could happen to anyone." This is vague and likely propaganda, no direct military relevance. New message: STERNENKO posts video of "Evil Beavers" (Zlyuky Bobry) unit destroying two targets on the Kurakhove direction. This confirms successful UAF FPV drone strikes. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo message summarizing "killing results" of UAV units of the 214th Separate Assault Battalion "OPFOR" for the first half of 2025. This highlights UAF drone effectiveness and attrition inflicted on RUF. New message: Новости Москвы posts photo message about "historical moment" of BMWs with working turn signals. This is civilian and satirical, no military relevance. New message: Colonelcassad posts video claiming 3 FAB-500s destroyed a span of a bridge over the Vovcha River near Iskra. This is a confirmed RUF strike on key infrastructure. New message: РБК-Україна posts video titled "Attack of unknown drones caused collapse in Russian airports." This corroborates airport disruptions due to UAF deep strikes. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports group of strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a new, ongoing UAV threat. New message: Два майора posts photo message that Poland will increase 155mm ammunition production 9-fold. This is a significant development for UAF and NATO artillery supply. New message: Воин DV posts video claiming 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, is destroying enemy positions in the Huliaipole direction. This indicates active RUF offensive operations. New message: Операция Z reports "Voenkor Russkaya Vesna" claiming Russia could challenge NATO in 5-7 years, citing Alliance Secretary General. This is RUF propaganda intended to project future strength and influence. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykhalchyna Sloboda of Chernihiv region. General Staff of UAF posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag erected on the border with Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF destroying a RUF flag on the border. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Chernihiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Kyiv/Chernihiv. UAF Air Force reports renewed information on RUF strike UAV movement, specifically towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports RUF struck Chernihiv Oblast with an FPV drone, with accompanying photos of damage to a residential building and vehicles. New message: Colonelcassad reports "Отряд "Анвар" работает в приграничье Сумской и Черниговской областях," with a video depicting drone footage of strikes on military targets in wooded areas, including marked Ukrainian Observation Posts. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports high-speed target in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports high-speed target in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. New message: РБК-Україна reports high-speed target in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile in Chernihiv Oblast - southwest course. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports missile in Chernihiv Oblast, southwest course. New message: РБК-Україна reports repeated "Kinzhal" launch. Missile in Chernihiv Oblast - southwest course. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Loud explosive sounds in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts are from the flight of a Kinzhal missile. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Відбій загрози по МіГ-31К. New message: РБК-Україна reports UPD. Відбій загрози по МіГ-31К. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Пішли відбої. New message: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video with caption "Рабочие будни отряда СпН "Анвар" продолжаются в Черниговском и Сумской приграничье. Здесь малые отряды боевиков, с надеждой не быть замеченными, окапываются в лесах и лесополках. Опытный глаз воздушной разведки, которой в приграничье изучен уже каждый метр, быстро находит логова противника. Где надо накрывают ствольной и реактивной артиллерией, наносят и удары точечно. Ударные БПЛА в умелых руках операторов гоняют по лесным зарослям почти как болиды. Огневое воздействие на боевиков идёт серьёзное. Никакими успехами ВСУ здесь похвалиться не могут." The video shows aerial reconnaissance and targeted strikes, including thermal imaging of MLRS and mortar fire, and strike UAVs engaging dugouts. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetropak Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties in Kryvyi Rih (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetropak Oblast, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the afternoon/evening. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (previously 7). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports RUF combat losses as 1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, and 3 special equipment units in the last day. TASS reports ZNPP power supply has been restored, and the 750 kV "Dniprovska" line is operational. Fighterbomber reports a dozen and a half "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones took off from Poltava airfield. TASS reports three casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including two children, one in serious condition, due to UAF attack. Serhiy Lysak reports not to ignore air raid alert. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts low-quality aerial footage of a settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора posts a video claiming "Zaporizhzhia Front" with aerial footage of a settlement, likely from a drone. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "Uvaha!" (Attention!) alert. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "all clear". TASS reports over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse corroborates this. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a series of photos showing damaged civilian vehicles and structures, with a caption indicating that the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs. This new message confirms continued RUF attacks on Dnipropetropak Oblast, using both artillery and UAVs, and provides visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a heavily damaged structure or vehicle, with a caption "Днепропетровское направление." This suggests ongoing combat or attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction from a RUF perspective, likely damage caused by RUF. New message: ТАСС reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility, citing the Ministry of Defense, and includes a video showcasing Ka-52 helicopters in flight and live fire. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video with the caption "Удари по Чебоксарському «ВНИИР» настільки вразили кацапа, що той втратив навички формування думок в речення." The video shows plumes of dark smoke, suggesting ongoing impacts or fires. This implies a successful UAF deep strike impacting RUF industrial capability. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts a video of Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Radudugin discussing his service, injury, and the 'Titani UA' veteran support project. This is a morale-boosting and public awareness message for UAF. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the RF army is breaking into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with the enemy entering Zelenyi Kut and Novoukrainka, near Dachne, where fierce battles are currently taking place. This is a significant claim of RUF ground advance in Dnipropropetrovsk Oblast. New message: MoD Russia posts a video stating "Geran-2 UAV operators struck a temporary deployment area of units of the AFU 36th Separate Marine brigade near Stepanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic." The video shows aerial reconnaissance footage, likely from a drone, of an urban or semi-urban area with explosions. New message: Операция Z reports RUF forces took Zelenyi Kut and Novoukrainka near Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: STERNENKO video shows drone target and attack of a military vehicle, likely a tank, demonstrating effective strike against enemy armor. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Дніпропетровська область (Синельниківський р-н) - загроза застосування авіаційних засобів ураження! This is a renewed threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports ❗️Ворог атакував Нікопольщину протягом дня здебільшого FPV-дронами. Обстріляв район і з артилерії. This confirms FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol. New message: Военкор Котенок posts video with caption "The guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull out," showing a military vehicle on fire at night with soldiers around it, indicating combat losses and difficulty extracting personnel. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports group of strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a new, ongoing UAV threat. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. WarGonzo map indicates continued advances in the Chasiv Yar direction and claims for control of the Kanal microdistrict. WarGonzo also claims "liberation of Yablonovka" near Andriivka, indicating continued engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators destroying UAF strongpoints and technical means in the Huliaipole direction, specifically claiming destruction of a Ukrainian EW station. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast at 0538Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka of Donetsk region. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Myrne, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Razine, Promin, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Dachne and towards Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka, Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka in Pokrovsk direction yesterday. Clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Orikhiv direction. Clashes yesterday near Novozlatopil in Huliaipole direction. Clashes yesterday near Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Katerynivka in Toretsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Vyyimka, Serebryanka and Fedorivka in Siversk direction. Clashes yesterday near Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyny, Torske, Nadiya and towards Serebryanka, Dronivka and Shandryholove in Lyman direction. RUF source "Операция Z" claims a "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk (RUF claims against UAF rear bases). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video showing "FABing" in the Piddubne area by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army. TASS claims Russian forces cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade worked against enemy personnel and equipment in Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) posts video claiming destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims new targets hit in "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from Donetsk into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims " уточнение после удара по 110-й мехбригаге ВСУ" (clarification after strike on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade) with photo messages implying successful strike. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims "Армия России уничтожила всё командование 110-й бригады ВСУ одним ударом" (Russian Army destroyed entire command of UAF 110th Brigade with one strike). TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Военкор Котенок also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Операция Z also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact in Kramatorsk with photos showing smoke and damaged buildings, implying a strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk region. TASS reports UAF struck western Donetsk, with preliminary reports of casualties and 4 wounded. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio traffic from 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk area. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports UAF shelling of western Donetsk, with some targets intercepted by PVO. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports PVO working in Donetsk and a missile strike by UAF on western districts of DNR capital, claiming civilian casualties. Mash na Donbasse video claims UAF struck Petrovka in Donetsk, with preliminary 4 injured and some deceased. ASTRA video also shows damage in Trudovskoy village, western occupied Donetsk, due to UAF strike. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports liberation of Predtechyno in DNR. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition states 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Colonelcassad posts video showing destruction of a UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar on minefields. TASS posts video showing aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of occupied Donetsk. WarGonzo reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF shelling. Basurin o Glavnom posts video showing aftermath in western Donetsk from UAF strike, with claims of 4 dead, 4 wounded. Voenkor Kotenok posts video showing damage in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed." The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV activity in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving southwest. Mash na Donbasse reports 4 fatalities in Petrovka from explosions. Basurin o Glavnom discusses why bridges across the Dnieper are still intact. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RUF WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia, showing thermal imaging of a strike. Colonelcassad reports a night optical fiber drone hit a Swedish armored personnel carrier PBV302, filled with UAF infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with aggressive propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed," with an implication to Konstantinovka to "prepare." Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing military vehicles and positions, including Oshkosh M-ATV and BBM, with engagements and explosions, identified as "Donbas. Rubicon is working." Basurin o Glavnom repeats the claim that an "Iskander" strike on Huliaipole destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. TASS reports that RUF forces are approximately 3km from Konstantinovka (Donetsk) after liberating Predtechyno. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming "Wartime" operators working in Krasnoarmiisk direction, showing a damaged multi-story building. RUF "Воин DV" posts video showing FAB strikes by 11th Army Air Force and Air Defense Army near Voskresenka, claiming ground group advances. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts map claiming "04.07.25 Chasiv Yar - Levanevskogo," suggesting RUF presence or control. MoD Russia posts video "Msta-S self-propelled artillery system (Tsentr Group of Forces) destroys AFU firing position in Krasnoarmeysk direction," confirming artillery use. Colonelcassad posts video and photos of "Последствия прилета ракеты РСЗО «HIMARS» с шрапнельной боевой частью перед АС «Трудовская» в Петровском районе Донецка," confirming UAF HIMARS strike and casualties. Alex Parker Returns posts photos and text "По Донецку нанесен удар HIMARS. Четверо погибших. В последние дни хохлы значительно активизировали удары по Донецку и Луганску. Используют HIMARS и ракеты Storm Shadow," corroborating UAF HIMARS strikes and confirming fatalities in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message "Краснолиманское направление," indicating ongoing focus on this axis. Colonelcassad video indicates tactical successes and active combat in the Siversk direction, showing drone footage of artillery/mortar strikes in a wooded area. RUF WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on enemy personnel from the 36th Guards Brigade. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition photo message shows consequences of a strike (likely UAF) on a civilian object in Shebekino, Belgorod. WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry, specifically a MaxxPro MRAP. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows destruction of a concealed position, likely a RUF "quadrober" (quadcopter user) or small structure. РБК-Україна reports UAF struck the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows the aftermath of a suspected missile strike on a multi-story residential building, claiming "ВСУ продолжает расстреливать дома гражданских." Colonelcassad reports FPV drone strikes by the Maksim Krivonos Battalion on nationalist equipment in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. The accompanying video from Colonelcassad shows drone footage of an engagement with a ground vehicle, possibly a tank or APC, and explosions. The video displays watermarks that may indicate Ukrainian origin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAЇNE FIGHTS posts video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and losing, from the "Hostri Kartuzy" unit. RBK-Ukraina reports 230,000 Russian occupiers neutralized by UAF in six months, citing Syrsky. The accompanying video shows drone footage of engagements, targeting and destruction of personnel and equipment, with Ukrainian text overlays indicating locations like 's. Hrodovika' and 's. Ivanivka'. Colonelcassad provides multiple drone videos including damaged residential buildings, shelling impacts, and a BM-21 Grad firing salvo. RUF sources claim "🅾️tvazhnyye" group was ambushed by a "waiting killer." Сливочный каприз posts a tactical map for the Novokselivske direction, indicating ongoing combat engagements. НгП раZVедка posts aerial video of a settlement under bombardment, with large explosions. Colonelcassad posts an "author's weekly column" with medical information about epidural and subdural hematomas, pupil dilation, speech and motor impairment, with photo messages of brain diagrams. This is a RUF source sharing medical information, possibly for combat medics or to highlight the severity of injuries sustained. "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Siversk-Hryhorivka direction, indicating ongoing combat engagements. Operatsiya Z claims that Russian forces have stormed Kamenskoye, stating they crossed the bottom of the Kakhovka reservoir and attacked the enemy from the flank, implying a significant tactical maneuver. The accompanying image suggests a combat zone, potentially showing a military advance or engagement. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "Southern" group intelligence FPV drone destroyed an enemy ground robotic complex attempting to evacuate a severely wounded UAF soldier in the Siversk direction, and that the evacuation failed. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a HIMARS strike in Makiivka, which occurred two years ago, confirming the demilitarization of 75 Grad MLRS salvos. Операция Z posts an intercepted Ukrainian communication discussing potential operational encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad due to lack of infantry. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational update as of 22:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RBK-Ukraina corroborates this General Staff update. Colonelcassad posts new FPV drone footage from Donbas, showing military vehicles and engagements, identified as "Donbas. Rubikon is working." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. This refers to the Kharkiv axis, not Donetsk, but is a relevant update to force dispositions. New Update: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position by "Viking" operators. Colonelcassad posts new "Ночные прилёты полуторок!!!" videos and aerial surveillance footage (03:03:02Z, 03:03:03Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a photo message, claiming that an additional 1050 occupiers "have appreciated the hospitality of sincere Ukrainians," referring to estimated enemy combat losses. This message includes an infographic similar to the General Staff of UAF's daily loss reports. RBK-Ukraina corroborates Operatyvnyi ZSU's report of 1050 enemy combat losses, citing the General Staff. This indicates continued high attrition of RUF forces in the Donbas direction. New message: Colonelcassad posts compilation of FPV drone strikes by various units in the Karla Marksa and Voskresenka area. New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". Other General Staff photo messages are similar. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. This confirms continued RUF FPV drone use against UAF artillery. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos with the caption "Воїни 72 ОМБр імені Чорних Запорожців доводить свій професіоналізм на полі бою, з 2014 року захищаючи Україну." These photos show combat operations and damage. This highlights UAF active engagement and capabilities. New message: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України posts a video with the caption "Знайшли, влучили, знищили!" The video shows FPV drone footage, confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike on enemy positions or equipment. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two videos (07:14:01Z, 07:14:01Z) and text (07:14:02Z) captioned "NATO weapons against AFU" and showing drone footage of a grassy area, with a puff of smoke at 00:43, possibly a strike. New message: ТАСС video claims RUF FPV drone units "Rubikon" struck UAF ground robotic complexes (07:21:01Z, 07:21:02Z). New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "Freedom of Russia" Legion captured a Nigerian former student and ex-convict serving in RUF's 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:19Z, 07:20:19Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:19Z). New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kostyantynivka, Andriyivka-Klevtsove of Donetsk region. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Donetsk. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Nadiya, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Dibrova and towards Hryhorivka in Lyman direction. New message: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports map updated (07:21:18Z). New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of a soldier handling ammunition in a tactical environment (07:15:59Z, 07:16:00Z). New message: Colonelcassad posts video of RUF FPV drone striking a 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. New message: МоD Russia posts two videos (07:27:01Z, 07:27:02Z) showing the 90th Guards Tank Division training assault detachments and mortar teams in a rear area, which is likely part of force generation or unit rotation. New message: "Воин DV" posts video and text from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade, claiming support for "Vostok" grouping stormtroopers near Malinovka, showing village under fire with explosions. Colonelcassad posts the same video and text, confirming RUF artillery support for ground assaults. New message: Два майора posts photos regarding aid distribution issues within RUF, indicating potential resource misallocation. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message and satellite image confirm RUF focus and claimed presence in Dzerzhinsk direction. New message: WarGonzo video/text regarding "Mansur" from "Somali" unit is propaganda, not battlefield geometry. New message: "Сливочный каприз" posts a map summary of combat operations from June 01 to June 04, 2025. New message: "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports RUF forces captured fortifications near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk, previously built by Ukraine with Western funds, citing a German OSINT analyst. New message: РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting ⚔️РФ штурмує Покровський напрямок: ЗСУ стримують ворога біля десятків населених пунктів. This is a direct UAF corroboration of continued high-intensity RUF assaults on the Pokrovsk axis and UAF defensive efforts. New message: STERNENKO video "На Краматорському напрямку Грім з Небес 5-ї ОШБр уразив САУ Нона-С, 5 кацапів, легкове авто, буханку та багато іншого💥" confirms successful UAF counter-battery and personnel strikes in the Kramatorsk direction. New message: UAF Air Force reports КАБ/КАР ворожою тактичною авіацією на Донеччині. This confirms continued RUF use of glide bombs in Donetsk Oblast. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports operators of the 114th Brigade hunted down an enemy drone "Zhdun" on fiber optic cable. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of military engagements, targeting and engaging enemy personnel/positions, with direct fire and explosions, and numerical indicators. New message: Colonelcassad reports RUF is claiming a combatant (callsign "Khan") from 299th Guards Parachute Regiment of 98th Airborne Division shot down 15 enemy Mavics in Chasiv Yar direction. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows footage of the liberation of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, marking an anniversary. New message: Colonelcassad reports a destroyed bridge in Iskra (Andriivka-Klevtsove) on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that RUF Z-bloggers claim that the entire command of the 155th Marine Brigade (Pacific Fleet) was eliminated by 4 HIMARS missiles in Kursk Oblast, in addition to Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov. New message: WarGonzo posts a video (07:08:01Z, 07:08:02Z) titled "Контрбатарейная борьба," showing drone footage of an artillery engagement targeting a camouflaged structure, likely a D-30 howitzer, confirming RUF counter-battery activity. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video (07:44:01Z, 07:44:02Z) showing a drone strike targeting a vehicle, captioned "Despite losses among the command, the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade actively continues to stop the Russian advance," confirming UAF offensive action and resilience. New message: Воин DV posts two photo messages (07:45:01Z, 07:45:02Z) with the hashtag "#от_подписчиков," showing what appears to be a UAF soldier in a dug-in position, equipped with a rifle, suggesting UAF defensive posture. New message: Colonelcassad posts a video (07:47:01Z, 07:47:02Z) claiming "Destruction by scouts of the 5th Tank Brigade of armored vehicles and heavy hexacopters of the AFU by FPV drones in the South Donetsk direction," showing drone footage of destroyed vehicles, indicating RUF FPV drone success against UAF equipment. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video (07:54:01Z, 07:54:02Z) with the caption "У росіян - свій флешмоб... Самознищення чергового самострілу, що побачив у небі український дрон, фіксує аеророзвідка на Оріхівському напрямку," showing a drone targeting an individual, indicating UAF drone reconnaissance and engagement. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message stating "Our troops entered Siversk." This is a significant RUF claim of ground advance in Donetsk Oblast. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 05.07.2025 regarding Russian invasion. New message: STERNENKO video shows R.V.28 unit burning occupiers and their equipment in the Toretsk direction. New message: MoD Russia posts a video stating "Geran-2 UAV operators struck a temporary deployment area of units of the AFU 36th Separate Marine brigade near Stepanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic." The video shows aerial reconnaissance footage, likely from a drone, of an urban or semi-urban area with explosions. New message: Операция Z posts a photo from "Военкоры Русской Весны" with the caption "🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Битва за Часов Яр: Армия России продолжает штурм, контролируя основную часть города." This visually claims RUF ground control. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message stating "🪂 Уничтожены две пусковые установки и две радиолокационные станции AN/МPQ-65 ЗРК «Patriot» производства США." New message: Basurin o Glavnom posts a photo message titled "Все на баррикады, а мы задних попасем," which is RUF propaganda regarding troop recruitment/mobilization. New message: Basurin o Glavnom posts photo/video of a civilian residence, no military significance. New message: Colonelcassad posts video of a rally of relatives of Columbian mercenaries allegedly liquidated by RUF in Ukraine, demanding return of bodies and payment. This indicates RUF success in targeting foreign fighters and the resulting political/humanitarian pressure on Colombia. New message: Colonelcassad photo message reports RUF eliminated another Estonian mercenary. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Пуски КАБ ворожою тактичною авіацією на Донеччині. This is a new confirmed KAB launch in Donetsk Oblast. New message: STERNENKO video "Шершні Довбуша VS ворожий танк" shows a successful UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF tank, confirming continued UAF anti-armor efforts and drone effectiveness. New message: Colonelcassad video Два «Ланцета» от #1_танковой_армии по дальнобойной пушке М-46 ВСУ indicates a successful Lancet strike by RUF 1st Tank Army on a UAF M-46 field gun. This is a confirmed UAF equipment loss. New message: Alex Parker Returns photo message about "collaborators" indicates RUF internal propaganda and attempts to discredit UAF foreign fighters. New message: Colonelcassad reports RUF FPV drone operators from OBTF "Kaskad" worked against UAF armored vehicles. The video shows aerial footage of a vehicle being hit by a drone, consistent with a successful strike. New message: Военкор Котенок video shows a Russian FPV drone strike against a UAF armored vehicle. New message: Colonelcassad reports intensive battles for the village of Maksymivka, Pokrovsk direction, with RUF forces advancing on the southern outskirts. New message: Два майора provides a tactical analysis of a photo message that is not relevant to military operations or the battlefield. New message: Воин DV video captioned "🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠" shows first-person drone/vehicle footage in a wooded area, likely reconnaissance, with a target vehicle obscured by foliage, and smoke/dust suggesting recent activity. The 'Z' symbol is present. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ photo message with caption "Супутникові знімки того, що лишилось від складів кацапського БК після ударів дронів СБУ в районі т.о. Харцизьку" shows satellite imagery, likely of destroyed RUF ammunition depots. New message: Военкор Котенок photo message with caption "Противник утверждает, что ВКС РФ окончательно выбили мост через р. Волчья в районе н.п. Андреевка-Клевцово на границе между ДНР и Днепропетровской областью." This claims the destruction of a bridge by RUF Aerospace Forces. New message: Два майора posts a video with the caption "Запорожский фронт, Каменское направление". The video appears to show an aerial view of a battlefield with multiple explosions occurring across a wide, open field. The text overlay 'ДВА МАЙОРА' (Two Majors) suggests a commentary or channel associated with military affairs. The explosions indicate ongoing artillery or mortar fire, targeting a dispersed group of military assets or positions. The landscape is agricultural with some tree lines and scattered structures. The footage is stable, allowing for clear observation of the impact zones. The nature of the targets and the scale of the engagement are not precisely discernible from this distance and resolution, but it depicts active military operations. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports group of strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a new, ongoing UAV threat. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." WarGonzo map for Sumy direction shows enemy advances near Ryzhivka, confirming continued pressure. Rybar (RUF source) provides animated map, claiming counter-battery fire and tactical advances in Sumy direction, specifically around Andriivka, Kondratovka, and Yuganovka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novomutyn of Sumy region. UAF repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction yesterday. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo with the caption "04.07.25 Сумы - Новониколаевка", implying active engagement in the area. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts drone video of an artillery strike in the Sumy direction, near Andriivka. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on northern Sumy Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, warning Myhorod. RBK-Ukraina confirms UAF Air Force report of high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, warning Myhorod to take cover. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo message "03.07.25 Сумы - Алексеевка", implying active engagement in the area and RUF control. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. TASS reports two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Moskalkova hopes Kyiv will fulfill its promise regarding the return of residents of Kursk border areas displaced to Sumy Oblast. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports on the prisoner exchange, stating two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast, and 30 Russian citizens remain in Ukraine. ASTRA confirms two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast. TASS video shows Moskalkova discussing the prisoner exchange and human rights, referencing a Geneva convention. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV on Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged for interception (03:23:55Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, heading west, and then confirms the target stopped being fixed north of Khotin. This indicates a potential engagement or target evasion. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "Сумское направление." This indicates continued RUF focus on this area. New message: ТАСС reports that the Russian MoD says "Geranium-2" drones struck Ukrainian UAV production facilities in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and posts a video as evidence. This is a RUF claim of a successful deep strike on a military-industrial target. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Seredyna-Buda of Sumy region. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the center and east of Sumy Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи на Сумщину! This confirms continued KAB usage. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia will involve Laotian military personnel in demining Kursk Oblast, citing GUR. New message: Colonelcassad posts 18+ photos of Sumy border area, likely depicting damage from recent fighting or shelling, consistent with ongoing combat activity. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia is throwing assault groups on Sumy Oblast but is suffering heavy losses, citing DPSU. This is a direct UAF corroboration of continued high-intensity RUF assaults on the Sumy axis and UAF defensive efforts. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Kremlin is trying to involve Laos in the war to demine Kursk Oblast, citing GUR. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи на Сумщину! New message: TASS reports a new UAF battalion on the Sumy direction is mainly formed of pre-pensioners, citing Russian security forces. New message: Два майора posts a video (07:41:51Z, 07:41:52Z) titled "Сумское направление, Андреевка," showing aerial footage of a settlement under bombardment, with explosions and smoke, confirming RUF artillery/air strikes. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 🛸 У центрі та на сході Сумщини - ворожі розвідувальні БпЛА! Можлива робота ППО. (07:46:46Z) New message: ТАСС reports relatives are reporting hundreds of missing UAF soldiers from a brigade in Sumy Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is a new RUF propaganda claim of significant UAF losses. New message: AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian terrorists attacked Podlesnye Novoselki, Sevsky district, with kamikaze drones. New message: Colonelcassad reports "Отряд "Анвар" работает в приграничье Сумской и Черниговской областях," with a video depicting drone footage of strikes on military targets in wooded areas, including marked Ukrainian Observation Posts. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи на Сумщину! This confirms continued KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. New message: Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message stating a "yellow level" air danger regime is introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports explosions and destroyed pipelines near Vladivostok, which supplied the 155th Marine Brigade, citing GUR. New message: Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing on cooperation results. New message: ТАСС reports the head of Karabudakhkentsky district of Dagestan, Mahmud Amiraliyev, was recalled from the SVO zone before his detention, where he had gone about a month ago. This indicates an internal security issue within RUF leadership. New message: STERNENKO reports a deficit of "Russians sliced," a sardonic Ukrainian idiom meaning a deficit of enemy losses. New message: ТАСС reports bananas will continue to be mainly imported into Russia; growing them could be an exotic farming. This is a civilian update, no military relevance. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video titled "The guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull out." New message: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video with caption "Рабочие будни отряда СпН "Анвар" продолжаются в Черниговском и Сумской приграничье. Здесь малые отряды боевиков, с надеждой не быть замеченными, окапываются в лесах и лесополках. Опытный глаз воздушной разведки, которой в приграничье изучен уже каждый метр, быстро находит логова противника. Где надо накрывают ствольной и реактивной артиллерией, наносят и удары точечно. Ударные БПЛА в умелых руках операторов гоняют по лесным зарослям почти как болиды. Огневое воздействие на боевиков идёт серьёзное. Никакими успехами ВСУ здесь похвалиться не могут." The video shows aerial reconnaissance and targeted strikes, including thermal imaging of MLRS and mortar fire, and strike UAVs engaging dugouts. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports **🛸 На півночі, сході та півдні Сумщини - ворожі розвідувальні БпЛА! ** Confidence: HIGH.

  • Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. UAF Air Force reports "Kharkiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs" at 0523Z. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs over eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west, at 0532Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Ambarne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka in Kupyansk direction. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv RMA, provides video and photo updates on the aftermath of strikes, consistent with previous reports of damages and ongoing emergency response. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Colonelcassad reports 5 enemy UAVs destroyed by FPV drones "VT-40" in Kharkiv direction. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo of engagement in Kupyansk - Peschanoye direction. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims "Chernika" loitering munitions were used for the first time against targets in Kharkiv (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos with the caption "Наші люди вдома. Більшість із них перебувала в російському полоні ще з 2022 року," related to a prisoner exchange. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Kharkiv Oblast. OTU "Kharkiv" posts photos with the same caption about "Our people are home." Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z posts photo message claiming RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka, creating another Kharkiv bridgehead. "Зона СВО" posts video claiming destruction of fortified enemy positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState posts map showing the situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) posts a video claiming destruction of UAF equipment in Kupiansk by "Groza" system. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message captioned "Харьковское направление," which does not include additional text, indicating continued RUF focus on this area. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video featuring Ukrainian soldiers undergoing training, including firearms, anti-tank grenade launcher use, and discussion of combat stress, emphasizing combat readiness. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos are civilian content showing a political/diplomatic meeting. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Oleg Syniehubov's video is a formal ceremony, not battlefield information. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z posts video of a MaxxPro MRAP hit in the 36th Army's area of responsibility. Операция Z (Русской Весны) posts a map claiming "Армия России наступает в Харьковская области, продвигаясь на ряде участков," implying ground advances. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Oleg Syniehubov reports a Shahed drone impact in Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates Shahed impact in Chuhuiv. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims a large fire in Chuhuiv after a "Geranium" strike, with accompanying photos. Oleg Syniehubov reports that the number of injured due to the enemy strike on Chuhuiv has increased to three. RBK-Ukraina corroborates the increase in casualties in Chuhuiv to three. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a truck fire in Lipetsk Oblast, captioned as having destroyed 6 military vehicles, including an "Akhmat" and 5 "UAZiks." Военкор Котенок posts photo message claiming "В Чугуеве (Харьковская область) мощное зарево после работы "Гераней" по целям в городе." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. New Update: ASTRA reports 5 injured in Kharkiv Oblast from evening attacks, citing local authorities. New message: TASS reports Marochko claims RUF forces are blockading all UAF logistics in Kupiansk and encircling the city. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. New message: TASS reports that UAF are asking their command to prepare for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast after RUF liberated Melove (03:26:26Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: Операция Z reports that Russian forces have taken Melove in Kharkiv Oblast to expand their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, citing DS (DeepState). New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". New message: Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. This is an updated number from the previously reported 9 settlements. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 injured, including 2 children, from a massed UAV strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. This is a significant increase from previous reports. New message: РБК-Україна posts an "Immediate Assessment" including a logo for "ДСНС Харківщини" (State Emergency Service of Ukraine for Kharkiv region). This confirms the involvement of emergency services in BDA and response operations. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts multiple photos with the caption "В Чугуєві досі ліквідовують пожежу на одному з обʼєктів міста, яка сталася після влучання російських дронів." These photos show firefighters engaged in suppressing a large blaze at a damaged building, confirming significant post-strike fire and emergency response efforts. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Zelene, Kamyanka and towards Kutkivka in South Slobozhansky direction. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Zahryzove and Zelenyy Hay in Kupyansk direction. New message: Colonelcassad reports a map showing a fire in Chuhuiv at a local oil depot after drone attacks (07:17:01Z, 07:17:01Z, 07:17:01Z, 07:17:02Z, 07:17:02Z). New message: Colonelcassad posts video of the oil depot in Chuhuiv after "Geranium" strike on July 5, 2025, showing smoke (07:27:01Z, 07:27:01Z, 07:27:02Z). New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Kharkiv Oblast. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of an artistic depiction of a fire at night, implying a strike on an ammunition depot in Chuhuiv. New message: Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming destruction of a fortified firing point in Kharkiv direction by "Akhmat" special forces. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a large plume of smoke and fire in Chuhuiv, confirming a direct hit on a fuel depot after evening-night strikes. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports that Syrsky says the enemy is attacking 10 times a day in the South Slobozhanskyi direction. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces advanced west of Vyshneve and cleared a forest area between Zelenyy Hay and Vyshneve in the Kupiansk direction. New message: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts photo message related to a state program for acquiring apartments/houses. This is civilian information, not military. New message: РБК-Україна reports an impact on a Nova Poshta branch in Chuhuiv. New message: Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports that UAF is hastily preparing for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast, as it is a supply route for the Ukrainian grouping in Kupiansk. After the liberation of Melove, the offensive operation of the "Sever" grouping forces in the northern part of Kupyansk district is forcing UAF command to redeploy reserves, mainly drone specialists. New message: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video (07:47:21Z, 07:47:22Z) showcasing a Ukrainian soldier, Bogdan 'Teren', from the 58th Separate Motorized Brigade, highlighting his role as a military driver and drone operator, emphasizing the demanding conditions and importance of teamwork. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 05.07.2025 regarding Russian invasion. New message: Oleg Syniehubov shares Zelenskiy's video message about scaling up defense production and long-range drones, indicating alignment with national strategy. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports ☀️ Україну накрила сильна спека: як розпізнати тепловий удар і врятувати життя which is a public health advisory, not military. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video titled "The guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull out." New message: Воин DV video captioned "🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠🔠" shows first-person drone/vehicle footage in a wooded area, likely reconnaissance, with a target vehicle obscured by foliage, and smoke/dust suggesting recent activity. The 'Z' symbol is present. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message captioned "Kharkiv direction." This indicates continued RUF focus on this axis. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Kharkiv Oblast! This confirms continued RUF use of glide bombs. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage, airstrikes, clashes, UAV threat, UAF equipment losses, casualties), MEDIUM (Melove/Stroevka liberation claim, Oskil strikes, "Chernika" claim, Kupiansk encirclement claim, Velykyi Burluk defense preparation - no UAF confirmation).

  • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 04.07.25. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (mopeds). Oleksandr Vilkul reports an explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of explosions in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. RUF claims new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih with "Geraniums" without AD opposition. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms UAV hit Kryvyi Rih causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 6 men injured in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. RBK-Ukraina reports full restoration of high-speed tram movement in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул posts multiple photo messages indicating a formal ceremony, likely awards or recognition within a domestic setting. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" raids in Kryvyi Rih during the day, in addition to massed night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (1 severe, 3 moderate, 3 light), previously 7. RBK-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih for the second time in a day, confirming photos of damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "🪂 На Днепропетровском направлении наши войска зашли в Воскресенку." This is a RUF claim of ground advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Colonelcassad posts video of Geraniums striking UAF positions in Stepanivka, including a PVD (temporary deployment point) of the 36th Marine Brigade. New message: STERNENKO video shows drone target and attack of a military vehicle, likely a tank, demonstrating effective strike against enemy armor. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video titled "The guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull out." Confidence: HIGH.

  • Kherson Oblast: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Mykolaiv, then further towards Voznesensk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast, northern course. STERNENKO also reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea. RBK-Ukraina reports explosion in Voznesensk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts video from Kinburn Spit with burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos showing damage in Kherson Oblast from "enemy attacks." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming "Бойова підготовка калєч-полків триває повним ходом, готуються до форсування Дніпра за будь-яку ціну" (Battle training of "crippled regiments" is in full swing, preparing to cross the Dnipro at any cost) in temporarily occupied Southern Ukraine, indicating RUF intent. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports GUR destroyed three UAV operators from Dmitry Rogozin's unit in Kherson Oblast today. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror in Kherson region with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling and damage in Kherson. Два майора video shows Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, implying ongoing riverine operations. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. Colonelcassad posts two videos showing Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Kherson Oblast. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video showing UAF successfully evacuating two wounded soldiers via ground drone, despite a RUF FPV drone attack. New message: ASTRA reports two casualties in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours, and 33,000 residents are without power due to a UAF attack on a substation. This confirms infrastructure damage and civilian impact. New message: ASTRA reports RUF attacked a UAF ambulance with a drone in the Zaporizhzhia direction. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video titled "The guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull out." Confidence: HIGH.

  • Russian Territory:

    • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok due to mourning for Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov further confirms his death. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the death of Andrey Badalov, Vice President of Transneft. ASTRA confirms Badalov fell from a window, death by suicide/accident. TASS confirms the death of Transneft VP Andrey Badalov in Moscow. TASS reports a woman who blew up Pilavov died at the explosion site. Kotsnews confirms cancellation of Vladivostok festival due to Gudkov's death. TASS video shows funeral service for Pilavov, ex-head of Luhansk. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that RUF Z-bloggers claim that the entire command of the 155th Marine Brigade (Pacific Fleet) was eliminated by 4 HIMARS missiles in Kursk Oblast, in addition to Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring a man discussing the alleged loss of the entire 155th Brigade command, implying frustration at lack of official acknowledgment. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports explosions and destroyed pipelines near Vladivostok, which supplied the 155th Marine Brigade, citing GUR.
    • Internal Security: TASS reports Rosfinmonitoring added a minor (born 2011) to its list of extremists and terrorists. TASS also reports Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan and their families are still unaware of the accusations, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction. TASS reports Akunin case to be considered July 14, further emphasizing internal repression. Colonelcassad reports on drone attacks against Izhevsk. TASS reports air space restrictions in Izhevsk airport at 0529Z. ASTRA confirms Izhevsk airport closure at 0536Z. Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports a new federal law on criminal liability for "dropperism" (money laundering for fraudsters) comes into force July 5th, indicating ongoing internal security/financial crime concerns. VTB bank reports a new fraud scheme targeting pensioners. TASS video shows the damaged vehicle of Zakhar Prilepin, highlighting internal security concerns related to assassination attempts. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (RUF source) posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discussing Ukrainian special services recruiting Russian population. Sever.Realii reports St. Petersburg dam closed, expecting first flood in 160 years. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police will conduct raids on scooter and bicycle riders over the weekend. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RUF source) reports two "AFU militants" imprisoned for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video showing Military Police operations at a checkpoint in Kursk region. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees in Naberezhnye Chelny forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat. TASS reports Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares due to central bank order. TASS reports Romania will not send troops to Ukraine. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about implementation of law protecting Russian language. Военкор Котенок also suggests importing Cuban medics to address medical staff shortages. Kadyrov_95 posts video of a meeting discussing socio-economic situation in Chechen Republic, aimed at projecting stability and governance. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warning for threats in house chats (up to 5 years). TASS reports former Deputy Head of Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations Pavel Baryshev sentenced to 3 years for large-scale fraud. ASTRA reports journalist Alla Konstantinova declared wanted. Новости Москвы reports a massive MTS communications failure. TASS reports criminal cases against top managers of Svetlinsky mine "Yuzhuralzoloto". TASS reports Armenian appeals court kept Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan under arrest. Alex Parker Returns posts information about a removed Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head in Moscow Oblast, stripped of citizenship and deported. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports "yellow level" UAV threat on Lipetsk region. Zvizdeц Мангусту posts a reminder of an ongoing situation for those interested. Новости Москвы reports a child injured at Sheremetyevo is recovering. TASS reports Russian Duma proposes remote sick leave for SVO soldiers, indicating adaptation to address military welfare. ASTRA reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for graffiti on a Victory Day banner. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a military man beat a colleague to death during "Veterans Day" celebration. Alex Parker Returns posts photo with caption "Everything is bad. Around treason, cowardice and deceit." Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition notes 5 years to Constitutional amendments, emphasizing a key internal political event. Janus Putkonen reports "Wise Russian introspection" from Valdai Club. Kadyrov_95 posts video of meeting discussing Chechen participation in SVO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Операция Z (Русской Весны) amplify NBC News report about US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies to Ukraine. Новости Москвы posts photo of "Festival of Whining" at GES-2. Военкор Котенок claims US command admitted death of 51 servicemen at Fort Bragg in 2023. ASTRA video confirms Azerbaijani diaspora head in Moscow Oblast was stripped of Russian citizenship and deported to Azerbaijan. WarGonzo discusses why Aliyev needs to quarrel with Moscow and its connection to Karabakh, implying geopolitical context for the deportation. TASS reports IL-76MD with eighth group of Russian servicemen returned in prisoner exchange landed in Moscow Oblast. Colonelcassad confirms IL-76MD landing in Moscow Oblast. Kotsnews reports Azerbaijani diaspora head in Moscow Oblast stripped of citizenship. TASS reports Twitch may leave Russian market voluntarily, implying internal tech control measures. Глеб Никитин (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Governor) reports mobile communication and internet disruptions due to reduced signal levels of cell towers in response to UAV threats, as an additional measure to protect industrial and strategic objects. TASS reports Telegram and WhatsApp users in Russia complain about outages, including audio/video calls. Новости Москвы reports Telegram outages. TASS reports the Russian Prosecutor General's Office (ГП) is demanding that the "International Satanism Movement" be recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation, with a court hearing scheduled for July 22. Два майора posts a video of two men in an office reviewing documents, captioned "The process has started (?)." Kotsnews posts video "Тихановский просит денег", which is civilian content. Mash на Donbasse posts video "Восемь собак и их агрессивная владелица держат в страх весь подъезд на Спортивной в Донецке," which is civilian content. Colonelcassad posts multiple photos on an exhibition "Герои операции "Поток" in Lugansk, which is civilian propaganda. TASS reports the State Duma proposes a ban on the sale of soda and chips in schools. TASS reports that a rally has begun in Yerevan calling for the release of businessman Karapetyan. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages containing xenophobic graffiti and text directed at Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. Alex Parker Returns posts photos of "famous pipe" in Luhansk where "suicide bomber killed former mayor." Военкор Котенок reports "В Нальчике нападение ваххабитов на патруль ДПС. Боевики были вооружены ножами," confirming an attack in Russia. Alex Parker Returns posts video "Страх и ненависть в Нальчике. Два ваххабита напали на сотрудников полиции. В результате один из полицейских получил ножевое ранение, а другой ваххабит был застрелен встречным огнем. Другому удалось скрыться. Ужас что!" and a photo confirming the attack. TASS reports "Сотрудник полиции ранен при нападении на наряд ДПС в Нальчике," and "Напавшие на наряд ДПС в Нальчике использовали холодное оружие," and "Пострадавший при нападении на наряд ДПС в Нальчике находится в тяжелом состоянии," and "Кадры с места нападения на наряд ДПС в Нальчике," further confirming details of the attack. ASTRA posts video "В Кабардино-Балкарии неизвестные напали на сотрудников ДПС, прозвучала стрельба" and "Задержание человека после нападения на полицейских в Нальчике," confirming shooting and detention. Операция Z posts video "Боевики с ножами напали на сотрудников ДПС в Нальчике," confirming the attack. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message about Chechen economic dependence on Russia, highlighting internal financial issues. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports a child was stabbed in Sergiev Posad and is in moderately severe condition. TASS reports one of the attackers on the Nalchik DPS patrol was detained. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows video of firefighters battling a large industrial fire, with barrels, fire-fighting equipment, and personnel, confirming an industrial zone fire in Shebekino, Belgorod. ASTRA removes "dove of peace" from new history textbooks, indicating changes in RUF propaganda. TASS video shows police vehicles at an intersection in Nalchik, indicating the scene of the incident. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video shows a high-level meeting on implementing new medical technologies in RUF troops. MoD Russia video also shows a high-level meeting on implementing advanced medical technologies in the military sphere and reports on the effectiveness of medical groups since the start of the SVO. Alex Parker Returns posts a tweet discussing Russian migrants in Argentina, indicating internal social/economic concerns. ASTRA video shows a street scene with construction work, and what appears to be the moment of attack on police in Nalchik. Colonelcassad provides multiple videos and context on the Nalchik attack, including police vehicles and an altercation. Alex Parker Returns video of an injured individual in military fatigues, captioned "Dobeyte vyzhyvshikh. Tak govoril Zhelezny Dimon," implying a call to kill survivors or a grim aftermath. TASS reports a suspect was detained in the stabbing of a 9-year-old boy in Sergiev Posad. TASS reports a criminal case was initiated in Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR) following the attack on police officers. Два майора posts a video showing two individuals in camouflage uniforms in a wooded area, with a makeshift campfire and supplies, captioned "Связисты Тимсо - жесткие люди." This implies RUF field activity. Alex Parker Returns video with the caption "Обратите внимание на зубы." This is a video of an individual speaking in Russian, with subtitles in Ukrainian. It appears to be a man speaking from a military perspective, potentially a RUF soldier. It appears to be RUF propaganda highlighting physical features. Colonelcassad mentions Iran's Civil Defense Organization head claiming WhatsApp played a role in pinpointing Hamas commanders. TASS reports Meloni states US did not stop arms supply to Ukraine, but revised decisions on separate components. TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport restrictions on aircraft reception/departure. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports "red level" UAV threat on Lipetsk region. TASS reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in three hours by MoD. AV БогомаZ confirms continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of an individual on the ground next to a car, captioned "Nalchik. Finish off the survivor. Let good happen!" with additional text about the Nanlchik attack showing the individual possibly injured. "Зона СВО" posts a meme video about a UAV operator correcting a group. TASS reports on a new law on criminal liability for "dropperism" (money laundering for fraudsters) coming into force on July 5th. Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "Midnight in Moscow!", suggesting normal civilian activity. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of a man speaking into a microphone, with a caption implying Belarusians are "stingy" in their donations for something. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video and photo messages of a truck fire in Lipetsk Oblast, claiming 6 military vehicles were destroyed. Alex Parker Returns posts a video featuring a man discussing Ukraine's mobilization potential for "10 more years of war." TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast, with no casualties. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, with no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. Alex Parker Returns posts video about two Romani individuals detained in Rostov for impersonating Chechens and extorting money. Alex Parker Returns also posts a video of a man apologizing to Russian citizens and soldiers, implying a confession related to military service. TASS reports 7 vehicles caught fire on the M-4 Don highway after a collision, with one injured. TASS reports St. Petersburg airport restrictions lifted. RBK-Ukraina reports Russians complaining about drone attack and explosions in Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast). ASTRA also reports Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast) under drone attack. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Saratov airport. New Update: Colonelcassad posts videos of captured military ordnance and equipment, identified as NATO equipment. Операция Z posts photos of the Cossack reconnaissance brigade "Terek" receiving a banner from the President with "With God." Полиция Хабаровского края posts photos of civilian personnel, not relevant. Further Update: TASS reports the head of "Voentorg" Vladimir Pavlov had his arrest extended on fraud charges. TASS reports a UAV attack on Cheboksary. RBK-Ukraina video confirms unknown drones attacking Cheboksary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh and Chuvashia. New messages: Colonelcassad posts videos of captured military ordnance and equipment identified as NATO equipment. Colonelcassad posts interview of a 71-year-old woman from Sudzha, Kursk region, alleging looting and destruction by Ukrainian forces. RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. TASS reports Ulyanovsk airport has restrictions on aircraft reception and departure. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA reports UAV attack on a military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, no casualties or damage. TASS reports court arrested 315 million rubles and shares in "Rusagro" from Vadim Moshkovich in fraud case. TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. Операция Z posts photos/text claiming increasing tension between Turkey and Israel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). TASS posts photo message claiming Trump contributes to Russian victory by stopping arms supplies to Kyiv, citing The Spectator. ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. RBK-Ukraina posts new report from UAF Navy (03:12:13Z, 03:12:14Z). ASTRA posts multiple photo messages and statements related to a fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast, citing NASA FIRMS (03:04:40Z, 03:04:41Z). RBK-Ukraina posts similar reports about the BorisoGlebsk fire (03:18:52Z, 03:18:53Z). OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a video and photo messages of a drone, with assessment (03:23:14Z, 03:23:15Z, 03:23:16Z). New message: TASS reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility, citing the Ministry of Defense, and includes a video showcasing Ka-52 helicopters in flight and live fire. New message: TASS reports that Trump believes the situation around Ukraine is very difficult. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: TASS reports that Macron's call to Putin is an acknowledgment that world politics needs Russia. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA has pulled all inspectors from Iran for the first time in 20 years. New message: TASS reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that over 94 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions during the night. This is a significant increase in claimed interceptions. New message: ASTRA reports that the governor of Voronezh Oblast confirmed more than 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of the oblast last night. This indicates a concentrated UAF deep strike. New message: Fighterbomber posts a video from a helicopter cockpit, showing what appears to be a reconnaissance or attack mission over rural terrain. This indicates continued RUF tactical aviation operations. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian PVO forces destroyed 94 enemy UAVs overnight. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. New message: ТАСС reports Trump does not rule out that the US will continue to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, including Patriot systems. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: RBK-Ukraina posts video of Trump commenting on his conversation with Putin regarding new sanctions against Russia. New message: Два майора posts a video with the caption "Сразу в десятке городов страны прошли проверочные мероприятия в отношении неонацистского подполья, которое украинские спецслужбы используют для диверсий и терактов в России." The video shows law enforcement/special forces conducting operations in urban environments, including preparing to breach a door and individuals being detained. This indicates RUF internal security efforts against alleged Ukrainian-backed "neo-Nazi underground." New message: Басурин о главном posts two photo messages discussing the impact of climate change on world agriculture. This is unrelated to military operations but shows a RUF channel engaging in general informational topics. New message: Рыбарь posts two photo messages with the caption "Звезда Давида на рукаве?" and a blurred image. This is likely an attempt at disinformation or propaganda aimed at linking a specific symbol to alleged undesirable groups, possibly for internal or external messaging. New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two photo messages with the caption "Патч «Волчонок 45» — данный патч не просто элемент формы, а настоящий символ мужества и боевого братства." The images show a military-style patch with a wolf design and text, serving as propaganda for a RUF unit, possibly the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. New message: ТАСС reports Volodin's statement on consequences for those aiding fraudsters (07:16:09Z, 07:16:10Z). New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace (07:28:15Z). New message: ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo airport is temporarily operating only for aircraft reception, with departures halted. New message: Новости Москвы posts a photo of a rare lightning event captured by an astronaut, which is civilian content. New message: РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting Trump's statement on the US considering transferring Patriot missiles to Ukraine. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of an artistic depiction of a fire at night, implying a strike on an ammunition depot in Chuhuiv. New message: Kotsnews reports the Investigative Committee established that the order to shoot down the Il-76 with Ukrainian prisoners of war over Belgorod Oblast was given by the commander of the Ukrainian brigade, Mykola Dzyaman. New message: Военкор Котенок posts photo of Mykola Dzyaman, commander of the 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the UAF. This photo is likely linked to the Il-76 incident. New message: ТАСС reports a new briefing from the Ministry of Defense. New message: Стрелков Игорь Иванович posts a civilian message about prison conditions, not militarily relevant. New message: ТАСС reports the revival of the sobering-up system in Russia would reduce the burden on medical institutions and enhance street safety. This is a domestic social issue, not directly military. New message: Два майора posts photos about popular aid not reaching the front lines, but rather headquarters/training/gatherings. This indicates internal RUF grievances regarding resource allocation. New message: TASS reports 12 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Russian regions, citing MoD. New message: ASTRA reports 12 UAVs destroyed over Russian regions (9:40-11:50 MSK). New message: AV БогомаZ reports continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. New message: Kotsnews reports RUF journalist mention and reach rating, which is civilian content not directly relevant to battlefield geometry. New message: ASTRA reports detention of heads of three large cities in Turkey (Adana, Antalya, Adiyaman). This is external, political news. New message: Rybar posts "Guilty will be punished," likely related to internal RUF issues. New message: ТАСС reports Merz must finally hold at least telephone talks with Putin, says AfD co-leader Chrupalla. This suggests a desire within some German political circles for direct engagement with the Russian leadership, reflecting a divergence of views on international relations. New message: ТАСС video shows a captured UAF soldier, Nikolai, in civilian clothes, stating he fought for Ukraine and was wounded near the Russian border. This is RUF propaganda intended to undermine UAF morale and show successful RUF counter-infiltration or capture operations. New message: Alex Parker Returns video shows two men in a forest, captioned "Another three evaders managed to escape forced mobilization from the concentration camp called 'Ukraine' across the border with Romania." This is RUF propaganda portraying Ukraine as a "concentration camp" and promoting draft evasion, aimed at internal and external audiences. New message: ASTRA reports BlackRock has stopped seeking investors for the Ukraine reconstruction fund due to growing uncertainty. This is a significant blow to Ukraine's long-term financial prospects for recovery. New message: Рыбарь posts a video of Kyrgyzstan-Japan aviation cooperation, focusing on civilian infrastructure. New message: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of a supermarket interior, no military relevance. New message: РБК-Україна reports EU will propose sanctions against Israel next week. This is external political news. New message: ASTRA video shows Ryanair aircraft evacuation at Palma de Mallorca airport, civilian incident. New message: Colonelcassad reports Ukrainian State Aviation said that those who voluntarily joined UAF AD units can be mobilized to the front, with no exemption. New message: Alex Parker Returns video shows a man in religious attire discussing migration in Russia, civilian content. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts multiple photos of a Bradley M2 BMP, highlighting its capabilities. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photo message about labor law compliance in frontline areas, civilian context. New message: MoD Russia posts video of Ivanovo Airborne Formation snipers improving combat training. New message: ТАСС reports police did not open a case on a fight involving footballer Smolov, civilian content. New message: Новости Москвы posts photo of Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund playing at Club World Cup, civilian content. New message: Басурин о главном posts video of Soviet actor Evgeniy Leonov, civilian content. New message: НгП раZVедка reports Ukrainian media claims about mass destruction of Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft at Borisoglebsk airfield are false. New message: ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down 15 Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts. New message: AV БогомаZ reports continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. New message: ASTRA reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that 15 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts from 11:50 to 13:50 MSK. New message: TASS reports that the Russian trade representation in Sweden was attacked; a package with paint was dropped from a drone onto its territory. New message: Colonelcassad posts video showing RUF training exercises on shooting down air targets in varying weather conditions, featuring individuals with firearms and military vehicles. New message: Два майора posts multiple photos (07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z) titled "На базе бывшего завода Шпагина в Перми открыта выставка "Оружие Победы," showing multiple photos of a military exhibition, including a banner for a "Motor Rifle Battalion Perm Krai" veterans group. New message: Два майора posts a video (07:50:14Z, 07:50:15Z) titled "⭐️Будни украинского ухилянта," depicting a man doing push-ups, which is RUF propaganda intended to mock UAF personnel and recruitment. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages (07:51:00Z, 07:51:01Z) captioned "Курская область," which is likely RUF BDA or territorial claims. New message: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports Rosstat has classified demographic data. (07:58:44Z). New message: РБК-Україна reports 3 more opposition mayors detained in Turkey. (07:59:04Z, 07:59:05Z). New message: Старше Эдды reports over 83 million rubles has been collected for drones, vehicles, night vision, and communications for border region defenders, with a goal of 100 million. This confirms RUF crowdfunding efforts for military equipment. New message: Старше Эдды reports "Upyr" kamikaze drones are now being mass-produced and the heavy "Berdysh" drone is undergoing combat testing. This indicates ongoing RUF drone development and production. New message: Новости Москвы video shows a festival of "active Moscow longevity" in Luzhniki, Moscow. This is a civilian event, likely for propaganda purposes. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF is increasing military presence in Armenia amid worsening relations with Azerbaijan, citing GUR. This is a significant geopolitical development impacting RUF force posture. New message: РБК-Україна corroborates RUF increasing military presence in Armenia. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos allegedly from the original source regarding the Armenia situation. New message: Colonelcassad posts photos of "fresh mercenaries" who fought for "Ukronazis" and were "liquidated" by RUF forces, citing TrackANaziMerc channel. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF struck the "VNIIR-Progress" military-industrial complex in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, citing the General Staff. New message: ASTRA reports Pulkova Airport has temporary flight restrictions. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Pulkova Airport has temporary flight restrictions and "Kovyor" plan activated. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports UAF struck a factory in Cheboksary that produces antennas for Shaheds and missiles. New message: Fighterbomber video shows large cargo aircraft, likely transport, landing/taking off on snow-covered runway. Presence of RA- registration implies Russian aircraft. New message: ТАСС video shows a light aircraft crash in Omsk Oblast, civilian. New message: AV БогомаZ posts several photos and a video of a cultural festival in Bryansk Oblast, confirming it's a civilian event. New message: ТАСС reports the head of Karabudakhkentsky district of Dagestan, Mahmud Amiraliyev, was recalled from the SVO zone before his detention, where he had gone about a month ago. New message: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message "Американцам с этим жить." (Americans have to live with this). This is a screenshot of a news article about Trump and Putin, with a composite image of them in front of burning buildings. This is RUF propaganda. New message: РБК-Україна reports 💥 Поблизу Владивостока вибухнув газогін, який забезпечує ворожу 155-у бригаду, - джерела. This is a significant UAF claim of a successful deep strike against RUF logistics in the far east, specifically targeting the 155th Marine Brigade's supply. New message: Операция Z posts photo message claiming Trump gave Putin a "green light" to intensify attacks on Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. This is RUF propaganda. New message: Александр Вилкул provides a briefing on the results of cooperation. This is civilian/administrative content, no military relevance. New message: Colonelcassad posts a video titled "Народная любовь, от которой не спрятаться, не скрыться," showing an unidentified individual holding what appears to be a firearm in a public setting. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetropak Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaged. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetropak Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of Zaporizhzhia Regional Governor presenting state awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagement near Pokrovsk with Russian forces destroying tanks and NATO equipment. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 54-year-old man wounded by enemy attack in frontline communities. TASS reports ZNPP power supply has been restored, and the 750 kV "Dniprovska" line is operational. TASS reports three casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including two children, one in serious condition, due to UAF attack. RBK-Ukraina confirms Ukrainian energy workers have saved ZNPP from another blackout. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts low-quality aerial footage of a settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора posts a video claiming "Zaporizhzhia Front" with aerial footage of a settlement, likely from a drone. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "Uvaha!" (Attention!) alert. TASS reports over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse corroborates this. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a fatality (84 y/o male) and two wounded (54 y/o male, 10 y/o child) in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attacks. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a series of photos showing damaged civilian vehicles and structures, with a caption indicating that the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs. This new message confirms continued RUF attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using both artillery and UAVs, and provides visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo showing a heavily damaged structure or vehicle, with a caption "Днепропетровское направление." This suggests ongoing combat or attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction from a RUF perspective, likely damage caused by RUF. New message: TASS video claims RUF forces destroyed foreign mercenaries in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using "Geranium-2" drones. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video message showing a "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen soldiers or victims of conflict. This is a symbolic act, not a direct battlefield update. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamyanske, Veselyanka, Prymorske, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk, Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages about military engagement. New message: ASTRA reports two casualties in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours, and 33,000 residents are without power due to a UAF attack on a substation. This is likely referring to the Zaporizhzhia/Kherson border area or a broader regional impact. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video of a job fair for veterans in Zaporizhzhia, focusing on rehabilitation and reintegration. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages of a civilian event with no military significance. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a photo message about labor law compliance in frontline areas, civilian content. New message: Mash на Donbasse video reports on a sandstorm affecting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports UAF attacked an ambulance with drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video with a weekly summary, detailing over 2800 strikes, damage to 170 buildings, 1.3 billion UAH in aid to military units (FPV drones, power supply units), housing certificates to 37 veterans, a job fair, and progress on grain harvest. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video about inclusive education centers, highlighting civilian resilience. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Uvaga! (Attention!) alert. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports ✅ Відбій повітряної тривоги! New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з півдня! New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports ‼️УВАГА! New message: Два майора video captioned "Zaporozhsky front" shows a drone's-eye view of a wooded area with signs of recent shelling/explosions, and an explosion within the treeline, confirming RUF activity and BDA. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з півдня! This is a new, current ballistic missile threat from the south. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) claims ~40 "Geraniums" attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports all 7 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv have been intercepted. New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports that Starokostiantyniv is under threat from enemy strike UAVs. New message: РБК-Україна reports that 42 drones were neutralized over Khmelnytskyi Oblast (07:15:01Z). New message: НгП раZVедка claims a massed strike of 200 attack UAVs on Starokostiantyniv airfield last night. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Khmelnytskyi Oblast is changing the procedure for announcing air raid alerts for UAVs starting July 7. New message: РБК-Україна reports Khmelnytskyi Oblast is changing the procedure for announcing air raid alerts. New message: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "Kinzhal" approaching Starkon. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile course towards Starokostiantyniv! New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports course towards Starokostiantyniv! New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports missile course towards Starokostiantyniv - UAF Air Force. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kinzhal" approaching Starkon field. New message: Николаевский Ванёк reports another "minus" (interception). New message: РБК-Україна reports this missile also on course towards Starokostiantyniv. New message: Военкор Котенок reports third explosion in an hour at Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports hypersonic "Kinzhal" strike on Starokostiantyniv airfield. New message: WarGonzo reports RUF Aerospace Forces struck Starokostiantyniv airfield with 2 Kinzhals. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Відбій загрози по МіГ-31К. New message: РБК-Україна reports UPD. Відбій загрози по МіГ-31К. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Пішли відбої. New message: РБК-Україна reports "Kinzhal" attack on Starokostiantyniv was without consequences. This is a critical UAF BDA, suggesting successful AD or no impact. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Vinnytsia Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 05.07.2025 regarding Russian invasion. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Cherkasy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 05.07.2025 regarding Russian invasion. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Chuvashia (RU): New Update: TASS and RBK-Ukraina confirm a UAV attack on Cheboksary (Chuvashia). Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Chuvashia. New messages: RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. New message: TASS reports UAV fell on vacant VNIIR building and damaged a warehouse under construction. New message: ASTRA reports head of Chuvashia confirmed attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" and that production is still halted since June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple videos confirming a large industrial fire with black smoke and an aerial event followed by an explosion in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, captioning it "Good drones visited Cheboksary, Chuvashia." New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of an industrial fire and explosions, identified as a "Geranium" strike on a facility in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, 07/05/2025. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF struck the "VNIIR-Progress" military-industrial complex in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, citing the General Staff. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports UAF struck a factory in Cheboksary that produces antennas for Shaheds and missiles. New message: STERNENKO posts photo message and tactical analysis report claiming UAF struck a military-industrial complex in Cheboksary that produces antennas for Shaheds, Iskanders, and glide bombs. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Saratov Oblast (RU): New message: ASTRA reports UAV attack on a military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. ASTRA reports residents of Engels, Saratov Oblast, report attack on military airfield. New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Voronezh Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Voronezh as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. RBK-Ukraina and ASTRA report drone attack and explosions in Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast). RBK-Ukraina video shows lights/flares in Borisoglebsk. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast. New message: ASTRA posts multiple photo messages and statements related to a fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast, citing NASA FIRMS (03:04:40Z, 03:04:41Z). RBK-Ukraina posts similar reports about the BorisoGlebsk fire (03:18:52Z, 03:18:53Z). New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video and photos confirming a UAV strike on the RUF military airfield in BorisoGlebsk, Voronezh Oblast, with confirmed misses. New message: TASS reports that over 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of Voronezh Oblast last night, citing the governor. New message: ASTRA confirms that the governor of Voronezh Oblast reported more than 25 UAVs destroyed over four districts in the oblast last night. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: РБК-Україна posts photos reporting "SSO struck BorisoHlebsk airfield." New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos reporting "SSO struck BorisoHlebsk airfield." New message: STERNENKO posts photos reporting "General Staff: BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: Fighterbomber reports an attack on "Bebsk" (likely Borisoglebsk) airfield with an image from UAF General Staff, confirming damage. New message: НгП раZVедка reports Ukrainian media claims about mass destruction of Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft at Borisoglebsk airfield are false. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Kyiv: Multiple fires confirmed in Kyiv following RUF strikes will impact air quality and complicate emergency response. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video confirms large-scale emergency response to fires, including fire-fighting aviation. Damaged railway infrastructure and partial traffic closures will impact logistics and civilian movement. Civilian sheltering in metro stations indicates the severe disruption to daily life. Widespread heavy smoke observed in multiple Kyiv districts further complicates conditions. MinDovkillia (Ukrainian Ministry of Environmental Protection) confirms high levels of air pollution in Kyiv. KVMDA claims low air pollution levels, which contradicts other observations of smoke and fires. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) highlights "Концентрация канцерогенов в воздухе Киева запредельная. Город курильщика." Damage to DTEK equipment and two transformer substations will cause power outages and further complicate restoration efforts. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kyiv. KVMVA posts new photo messages of damage in Kyiv. Police footage corroborates chaotic scene and emergency response. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo confirms widespread smoke. Alex Parker Returns video shows large explosion/mushroom cloud, with agricultural sprayer, but location not specified. ASTRA videos confirm civilians sheltering in metro. New message: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts two videos depicting burning buildings at night with emergency services, consistent with fire and damage. New message: РБК-Україна reports Kyiv Oblast suffered from night drone attacks, with a photo of emergency services, confirming ongoing environmental impact and response. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged, confirming localized environmental impact. New message: RBK-Ukraina photos show ongoing emergency rescue operations in Kyiv from yesterday's hits, indicating persistent impact and response. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a car accident involving a truck on the Kyiv-Odesa highway (M-05) at 89km, near Bila Tserkva, indicating a localized traffic/environmental impact. New message: Два майора posts video showing an individual resembling Donald Trump on a subway train. This is civilian content with potential propaganda value. New message: ASTRA reports over 120 flights canceled and dozens delayed at Sheremetyevo airport. This is a significant disruption to Russian civilian air travel. New message: РБК-Україна posts video titled "Attack of unknown drones caused collapse in Russian airports." This corroborates airport disruptions due to UAF deep strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Rostov Oblast (RU): Damage from UAV impacts (collapsed floor slab, residential damage, vehicles damaged) and a fatality will impact local infrastructure and potentially public morale. Substation disconnection affecting 6,000 people creates power outages. ASTRA reports attack on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant with at least 10 UAVs. TASS reports minimum 7 multi-story, 14 private residential homes, and 11 social objects damaged. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of strong impact. Alex Parker Returns video on detention of Romani individuals in Rostov, indicating internal security matters. TASS reports 7 vehicles caught fire on the M-4 Don highway after a collision, with one injured. This impacts a key logistics artery. New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage, indicating continued UAF deep strike attempts and RUF AD response. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Moscow Oblast (RU): Significant fire and smoke plume near Moscow indicates substantial damage, likely from UAF UAVs, impacting local infrastructure and potentially public morale in a key population center. Substation damage and widespread power outages in Sergiev Posad are confirmed, impacting infrastructure and daily life. Two casualties confirmed. Power fully restored. UAF source claims strike on substation powering a chemical institute. New footage shows the extent of the attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume. TASS reports a child was stabbed in Sergiev Posad and is in moderately severe condition due to a UAV attack. Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "Midnight in Moscow!", suggesting normal civilian life is unaffected. New message: TASS reports two UAVs flying towards Moscow were destroyed by PVO, citing Mayor Sobyanin. This confirms direct environmental impact on Moscow as a result of UAF deep strikes. New message: ASTRA corroborates that PVO forces shot down a drone flying towards Moscow, citing Sobyanin. New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace. New message: ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo airport is temporarily operating only for aircraft reception, with departures halted, indicating environmental impact on air travel. New message: Новости Москвы posts a video titled "✈️ Коллапс в Шереметьево," showing a large crowd of people on an escalator. This confirms significant disruption to civilian air travel. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Saratov, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Perm, Kaluga, Oryol (RU): Temporary airport restrictions due to UAV activity will disrupt civilian and potentially military air traffic, leading to economic and social disruption. Saratov restrictions have been lifted. Samara, Perm, Izhevsk, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Kaluga, and Oryol airport restrictions have been lifted. ASTRA confirms drone shot down in Udmurtia. TASS reports 33 injured in Izhevsk, 5 seriously. ASTRA reports attack on Rosrezerv oil depot in Udmurtia. STERNENKO reports widespread "drone safety" alerts across Lipetsk, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Belgorod, Vladimir, Ivanovo, and Moscow Oblasts, indicating continued disruption to airspace and daily life. TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport restrictions. TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast. New Update: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Saratov airport. TASS reports temporary restrictions introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. New message: TASS reports restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Ulyanovsk airport. TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down 15 Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts. New message: TASS reports that the Kirov airport restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted. New message: ASTRA reports that Kirov airport restrictions have been lifted. New message: Два майора posts multiple photos (07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z) titled "На базе бывшего завода Шпагина в Перми открыта выставка "Оружие Победы," showing multiple photos of a military exhibition, including a banner for a "Motor Rifle Battalion Perm Krai" veterans group. New message: ТАСС reports Telegram users complaining of outages, mainly in Moscow. New message: РБК-Україна posts video titled "Attack of unknown drones caused collapse in Russian airports." This corroborates airport disruptions due to UAF deep strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports seasonal movement restrictions for heavy vehicles due to high air temperatures. Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia. New alert issued by ZOV, then lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of heavily damaged settlement, described as "Zaporizhzhia front." Blackout at ZNPP due to enemy strike has critical environmental and safety implications. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. ZNPP external power restored. 1x fatality and 2x wounded in Vasylivskyi district reported by UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukrainian energy workers saved ZNPP from another blackout. Over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple photos of damaged civilian vehicles and structures, confirming that RUF attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs, providing visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a minute of silence. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamyanske, Veselyanka, Prymorske, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk, Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages about military engagement. New message: ASTRA reports 2 casualties and 33,000 residents without power in occupied Kherson Oblast due to a UAF attack on a substation, likely referring to the broader occupied southern territories including parts of Zaporizhzhia. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of a job fair for veterans. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts multiple photo messages depicting a civilian running event. These images provide no military intelligence. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a photo message about labor law compliance in frontline areas, civilian content. New message: Mash на Donbasse video reports on a sandstorm affecting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports UAF attacked an ambulance with drones in the Zaporizhzhia direction. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video with a weekly summary, detailing over 2800 strikes, damage to 170 buildings, 1.3 billion UAH in aid to military units (FPV drones, power supply units), housing certificates to 37 veterans, a job fair, and progress on grain harvest. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video about inclusive education centers, highlighting civilian resilience. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Uvaga! (Attention!) alert. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports ✅ Відбій повітряної тривоги! New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з півдня! New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports ‼️УВАГА! New message: Два майора video shows a drone's-eye view of a wooded area with signs of shelling and an explosion. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з півдня! Confidence: HIGH.
  • St. Petersburg (RU): Dam closure and expected flooding ("first in 160 years") will significantly impact local infrastructure, port operations, and civilian life. This could potentially divert internal resources and attention. TASS reports video shows high water levels in St. Petersburg. Sever.Realii reports at least two people injured due to falling trees in St. Petersburg. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. TASS reports St. Petersburg airport restrictions lifted. New Update: TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Pulkovo airport. New message: TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. New message: ТАСС posts a video (07:33:33Z, 07:33:34Z) titled "В Париже впервые с 1923 года разрешили купаться в Сене," showing people swimming in the Seine, which is civilian content and not militarily relevant. New message: ASTRA reports UAV danger in Leningrad Oblast has been announced by local authorities. New message: ASTRA reports Pulkova Airport has temporary flight restrictions. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Pulkova Airport has temporary flight restrictions and "Kovyor" plan activated. New message: РБК-Україна posts video titled "Attack of unknown drones caused collapse in Russian airports." This corroborates airport disruptions due to UAF deep strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Power outages confirmed. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, now fully restored, impacting urban transport. Strong fire observed after combined attack. Trolleybus movement fully restored. Two rescuers injured. New explosion due to Shahed attack. Confirmed strike on civilian infrastructure with casualties. RUF video shows smoke plume. New reports confirm 3 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm large smoke plumes after impacts. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih, indicating increased civilian casualties and humanitarian impact. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms Shahed hit in Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA posts photos of damage from a second RUF attack on Kryvyi Rih today. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "🪂 На Днепропетровском направлении наши войска зашли в Воскресенку." This is a RUF claim of ground advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: STERNENKO video shows drone target and attack of a military vehicle, likely a tank, demonstrating effective strike against enemy armor. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video titled "The guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull out." Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast): Destruction of an educational facility will impact local social services. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Donetsk (Western Districts): UAF strike caused damage and casualties in Petrovka, Truvovskoy village, and 4 fatalities. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video/photos and Alex Parker Returns photo/text confirm UAF HIMARS strike and 4 fatalities in Donetsk. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition photo message shows consequences of a strike (likely UAF) on a civilian object in Shebekino, Belgorod. Colonelcassad video shows extensive structural damage to a multi-story residential building following a suspected missile strike. НгП раZVедка video shows a settlement under bombardment. New message: Mash на Donbasse reports rescuers extracted a two-year-old child from a burning house in Pervomaisk. This confirms damage to residential areas and civilian impact. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Ballistic missile threat and explosion in Voznesensk indicate direct impact on civilian areas. Kinburn Spit shows burning trees, indicating localized environmental impact. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kherson Oblast (including Mykolaivka). Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling in Nikopol. 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.25. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з півдня! Confidence: HIGH.
  • Odesa: Damaged Chinese consulate will have diplomatic implications. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. New message: РБК-Україна reports an Opel car exploded in Odesa (07:21:16Z). New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports an Opel car exploded in Odesa when a man got in, citing National Police (07:24:58Z). New message: Colonelcassad reports an explosion in Kyivsky district of Odesa, with reports of a car with a military person exploding. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU opened a terrorism case regarding the car explosion in Odesa. New message: Операция Z (RUF source) posts video claiming an explosion in Odesa, where a car with a Ukrainian military personnel was blown up, with visual evidence of damaged vehicle. ASTRA posts video and photos confirming the car explosion in Odesa, stating SBU qualifies it as an attempted terrorist attack. New message: РБК-Україна posts a photo message (07:41:16Z, 07:41:17Z) titled "☀️ До +33 градусів і без опадів: якою буде погода 6 липня," which is a weather forecast, not militarily relevant. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and National Police detained a RUF agent who detonated a car in Odesa today, with video and photos of the agent and scene. New message: STERNENKO posts video and photos of the detained agent and the damaged car in Odesa, confirming the explosion was an SBU/National Police operation against a RUF agent. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message confirming SBU and National Police detained a RUF agent who detonated a car in Odesa today. This is a successful UAF counter-sabotage operation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Lipetsk Oblast (RU): New "red level" UAV threat in Yelets and Yelets district. Igor Artamonov reports red level for Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports "red level" UAV threat has been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" UAV threat for Lipetsk Oblast has been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports new "yellow level" air danger regime for all of Lipetsk Oblast and a "red level" UAV threat for Lebedyan and Lebedyansky district. Igor Artamonov reports the end of "red level" UAV threat for Lebedyan and Lebedyansky district. STERNENKO reports Lipetsk as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. ASTRA reports a column of MoD vehicles burned down on a highway in Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA provides multiple videos showing the burning vehicles and plumes of black smoke. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports a "red level" UAV threat on the territory of Yelets and Yelets district. Оперативний ЗСУ video and photos confirm a truck fire destroyed 6 RUF military vehicles, including an "Akhmat" and 5 "UAZiks." New message: Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message stating a "yellow level" air danger regime is introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. New message: Игорь Артамонов photo message confirms a "red level" UAV threat for Yelets and Yelets district. New message: Игорь Артамонов reports the red level "UAV attack threat" has been lifted for Yelets and Yelets district. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Czech Republic: Mass power outage (blackout) reported, stopping trams and trapping people in elevators. This is a significant civilian infrastructure disruption in a NATO/EU country. TASS reports blackout was due to technical reasons. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Belgorod Oblast (RU): 7 injured due to UAF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise. Chemical enterprise fire in Shebekino after UAV attack reported by ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina. ASTRA reports 2 injured in Shebekino due to UAF strike. WarGonzo video shows large smoke plume, confirming hit on chemical plant. ASTRA also shows photos of damage. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video confirms industrial fire in Shebekino. STERNENKO reports Belgorod as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. New message: STERNENKO posts a video of a large industrial fire, likely in Shebekino, with a prominent dark smoke plume. New message: ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down 15 Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts. New message: ASTRA reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that 15 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts from 11:50 to 13:50 MSK. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson Oblast): Moldy bread in stores suggests potential food supply issues. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (RU): Mobile communication and internet disruptions due to reduced signal levels of cell towers in response to UAV threats, as an additional measure to protect industrial and strategic objects. This indicates environmental impact on communication due to security measures. TASS reports airport restrictions for Nizhny Novgorod. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Colonelcassad posts video of yesterday's explosion near Zhytomyr, likely civilian. New message: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Warning! Zhytomyr Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs! New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile continues movement towards Zhytomyr Oblast! New message: STERNENKO reports "Kinzhal" heading west. New message: РБК-Україна photo message reports "Kinzhal" course towards Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: РБК-Україна photo message of UAF Air Force message on "Kinzhal" towards Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile in Zhytomyr Oblast, course towards Starokostiantyniv. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Loud explosive sounds in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts are from the flight of a Kinzhal missile. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria (RU): Attack on police patrol with knives and shooting confirms an internal security incident with police casualties (one injured severely). This represents a localized disruption. TASS reports one attacker detained. TASS video shows the scene of the Nalchik incident with police vehicles. Colonelcassad provides multiple videos confirming the Nalchik attack. TASS reports a criminal case initiated in KBR following the attack. ASTRA video appears to show the moment of attack and detention. Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing an injured individual on the ground next to a blue car, captioned "Nalchik. Finish off the survivor. Let good happen!" with additional text indicating it is related to the Nalchik attack. New message: Операция Z posts video of the attack on police in Nalchik. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Unecha, Bryansk Oblast (RU): Civilian infrastructure (overpass) under construction is a strategic asset that could be targeted. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Poltava Oblast: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. Fighterbomber reports 15x "Gerbera" (Shahed) UAVs launched from Poltava airfield. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Tambov Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Tambov as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Ryazan Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Ryazan as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Vladimir Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Vladimir as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Ivanovo Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Ivanovo as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Smolensk Oblast (RU): TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast, no casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Leningrad Oblast (RU): TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 UAVs shot down over Leningrad Oblast, no casualties. New message: ASTRA reports UAV danger in Leningrad Oblast, citing local authorities. New message: ASTRA reports Pulkova Airport has temporary flight restrictions. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Pulkova Airport has temporary flight restrictions and "Kovyor" plan activated. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Chuvashia (RU): TASS reports a UAV attack in Cheboksary, reported by the Ministry of Emergency Situations application. RBK-Ukraina video confirms unknown drones attacking Cheboksary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Chuvashia. New messages: RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple videos confirming a large industrial fire with black smoke and an aerial event followed by an explosion in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, captioning it "Good drones visited Cheboksary, Chuvashia." New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of an industrial fire and explosions, identified as a "Geranium" strike on a facility in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, 07/05/2025. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF struck the "VNIIR-Progress" military-industrial complex in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, citing the General Staff. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports UAF struck a factory in Cheboksary that produces antennas for Shaheds and missiles. New message: STERNENKO posts photo message and tactical analysis report claiming UAF struck a military-industrial complex in Cheboksary that produces antennas for Shaheds, Iskanders, and glide bombs. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Tulsk Oblast (RU): New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kirov Oblast (RU): New message: TASS reports that the Kirov airport restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted. New message: ASTRA reports that Kirov airport restrictions have been lifted. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Sweden (RUF Trade Representation): New message: TASS reports that the Russian trade representation in Sweden was attacked; a package with paint was dropped from a drone onto its territory. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RUF Dispositions:

    • Ballistic Missiles: Confirmed repeated ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast towards Kyiv (6 Iskander-M) and 1 Kinzhal. New ballistic missile threat from the east, since lifted, now re-reported by UAF Air Force, then lifted again. Ballistic missile threat from Crimea towards Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, with explosion in Voznesensk. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Samar (Dnipro). Colonelcassad video shows animated scheme of strikes, including Iskander-M and Geran/Geranium drones. New message: MiG-31K takeoff, carrier of "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, causing nationwide alert. New message: High-speed targets detected in Chernihiv Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast, and specifically Starokostiantyniv. New message: Multiple "Kinzhal" missiles confirmed launched at Starokostiantyniv airfield. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms loud explosive sounds in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts due to Kinzhal flight. New message: All-clear for MiG-31K threat issued. New message: UAF Air Force reports ☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння з півдня! This is a new, current ballistic missile threat from the south. New message: UAF Air Force reports Відбій загрози застосування балістичного озброєння. This indicates the immediate ballistic missile threat to southern Ukraine has ended. Confidence: HIGH.
    • UAVs: Continued widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes, with renewed activity over Kyiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Pavlohrad, Poltava Oblast, and now Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro. RUF sources amplifying claims of successful strikes. Massed UAV attacks observed in Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Chuvashia, and Leningrad regions. RUF MoD claims high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more between 08:00 and 11:00 MSK, and 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol between 13:00 and 16:00 MSK, 16 more over Bryansk, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Oryol Oblasts between 16:00 and 18:00 MSK, 11 more over Bryansk Oblast, 3 more over Bryansk Oblast, now 94 total). RUF sources claim 539 drones were launched against Ukraine. RUF also claims to have captured a "Lyuty" UAF combat drone. RUF is deploying a robotic infantry complex "Sarmat-Mgla" with powerful EW capabilities against UAF drones. RUF FPV drones are actively targeting UAF EW stations. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts. Colonelcassad reports 5 UAF FPV drones destroyed by "VT-40" FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM). RUF claims to have captured a "Lyuty" UAF combat drone. Colonelcassad reports strike on UAV production facilities in Konotop. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts video of a Ukrainian 'Baba Yaga' drone being targeted/engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro regions. Fighterbomber claims RUF UAVs ("Poseidons") can turn off transponders. Tsaplienko reports RUF launched Shaheds from three locations. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Donetsk, southwestern course. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report shot down "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones over Kyiv had advanced ISR capabilities (cameras, CRPA antennas, radio modems). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and implies UAF assesses RUF uses repeaters near Kyiv. "Воин DV" (RUF source) claims use of nets by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade to ground UAF drones in South Donetsk direction, using Mavic and Matrice 30T for reconnaissance. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetropak Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. UAF Air Force reports UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video of a ZU-23-2 gunner successfully engaging an enemy drone (Shahed) at night, indicating continued air defense efforts against UAVs. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" post videos of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Oleksandr Vilkul reports a new explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" raids in Kryvyi Rih during the day. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a downed "Gerbera" (Shahed) in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Операция Z quotes Ukrainian commander "Madyar" claiming RUF will attack with 1000 Shaheds per day or more. This indicates RUF intent to sustain massed UAV attacks. Alex Parker Returns video shows a large explosion with a mushroom cloud and agricultural sprayer, potentially a RUF strike in Ukraine. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 RUF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows the destruction of a concealed position, described as a "katsapsky quadrober" (Russian quadcopter operator). Alex Parker Returns video, although dark and grainy, appears to show a soldier with a rifle, captioned "Georgian fell prisoner to DSRG Rusich," which if accurate, suggests RUF special units operating and taking prisoners. РБК-Україна reports RUF launched "Shaheds" from multiple directions. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih for the second time in a day, with photos of damage. Fighterbomber reports a dozen and a half "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones took off from Poltava airfield. RUF UAV threat to Mykolaiv Oblast. 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. Colonelcassad reports enemy expects 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. Операция Z posts videos/photos claiming "swarm of Geraniums rushing to Kyiv: people hiding in metro." РБК-УкраїНА reports large quantity of attack drones in air raid regions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports large quantity of attack drones in air raid regions. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports Zhytomyr Oblast - threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborate this. RBK-Ukraina reports AD working in Kyiv. KVMVA reports UAV threat remains. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. TASS reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in three hours. AV БогомаZ confirms continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov reports a Shahed drone impact in Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates Shahed impact in Chuhuiv. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims a large fire in Chuhuiv after a "Geranium" strike. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports Khmelnytskyi Oblast - threat of RUF strike UAVs. TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, with no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. RBK-Ukraina also provides an update on RUF drone movement, with tactical analysis. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims "Ресурс зенитных установок типа "Гепард" и других в Киеве практически исчерпан, - депутат Рады". Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." КМВА reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. RBK-Ukraina also reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. UAF Air Force provides updated information on enemy strike UAV movement. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv. RBK-Ukraina posts new data on RUF drone movement with tactical analysis. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims ~40 "Geraniums" attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 7x Shaheds approaching Starokostiantyniv have been intercepted. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports another Shahed is flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast and Chuvashia. New messages: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a video and photo messages of a drone, with assessment (03:23:14Z, 03:23:15Z, 03:23:16Z). New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage. Оперативний ЗСУ posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). New message: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on Kyiv Oblast, moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: TASS reports that over 94 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions during the night. New message: ASTRA reports that the governor of Voronezh Oblast confirmed more than 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of the oblast last night. This indicates a concentrated UAF deep strike. New message: Fighterbomber posts a video from a helicopter cockpit, showing what appears to be a reconnaissance or attack mission over rural terrain. This indicates continued RUF tactical aviation operations. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian PVO forces destroyed 94 enemy UAVs overnight. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: UAF Air Force reports strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from enemy strike UAVs. New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia launched 322 drones against Ukraine last night. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 292 enemy UAVs were neutralized. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 292/322 enemy UAVs were neutralized. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message with 292 of 322 UAVs destroyed, 135 lost locationally (07:14:31Z, 07:14:32Z). New message: MoD Russia posts two videos of "Geran" in sight, showing aerial view of buildings and explosions in a settlement (07:14:33Z, 07:14:34Z). New message: РБК-Україна reports 42 drones neutralized over Khmelnytskyi Oblast (07:15:01Z). New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports GUR assessment that Russia wants to involve Laos in aggression against Ukraine (07:21:39Z). New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged. New message: Kotsnews reports the Investigative Committee established that the order to shoot down the Il-76 with Ukrainian prisoners of war over Belgorod Oblast was given by the commander of the Ukrainian brigade, Mykola Dzyaman. New message: Colonelcassad reports video showing a RUF drone (Rubikon) striking a camouflaged 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Операция Z posts multiple videos of "Geraniums" striking UAF infrastructure, showing explosions and large smoke plumes. New message: ASTRA posts photo messages of a "Geranium-2" drone detail manufactured by Suzhou ECGO Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. in China, implying external component sourcing. New message: AV БогомаZ posts photos of a meeting between Bryansk and Mogilev (Belarus) officials discussing cooperation prospects. New message: РБК-Україна posts photo messages reporting Trump's statement on the US considering transferring Patriot missiles to Ukraine. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports warning! Zhytomyr Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs! New message: TASS reports Main briefing of the Ministry of Defense. New message: Colonelcassad reports RUF forces destroyed two Patriot launchers and two AN/MPQ-65 radar stations. New message: MoD Russia publishes a briefing on the progress of the special military operation for 5 July 2025. New message: Старше Эдды (RUF source) claims that personnel from Mobile Observation Groups (МОГов) will soon be used for assaults, due to the decreasing effectiveness of "Geraniums" (Shaheds). New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts multiple aerial videos of strikes, including what appears to be an industrial or military complex with parked aircraft, being hit by explosions. The caption states "ВС РФ нанесли удары по территории противника." New message: ТАСС reports 34 flights delayed by over four hours at Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg). New message: ASTRA reports Israel concealed information about Iran hitting five military targets during 12-day war, citing The Daily Telegraph. This is likely RUF disinformation. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming SBU military counterintelligence struck 97 units of enemy heavy weaponry. New message: НгП раZVедка posts a video that appears to be political/social commentary from a RUF perspective, not directly military. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports warning! New message: Kotsnews reiterates the claim that "Geranium" drone effectiveness is decreasing, leading to deployment of mobile observation groups for assaults. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RUF special services recruited 62 Ukrainian children for sabotage operations in the first half of 2025, citing Vasyl Bohdan, head of juvenile police. New message: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны are amplifying the ASTRA report about Iran hitting Israeli military targets, likely for disinformation purposes. New message: ТАСС reports 15 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts. New message: AV БогомаZ reports continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Sumy Oblast! New message: ASTRA reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that 15 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk, Smolensk, and Belgorod Oblasts from 11:50 to 13:50 MSK. New message: TASS reports that the Russian trade representation in Sweden was attacked; a package with paint was dropped from a drone onto its territory. New message: Colonelcassad posts video showing RUF training exercises on shooting down air targets in varying weather conditions, featuring individuals with firearms and military vehicles. New message: Два майора posts multiple photos (07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:16Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z, 07:40:17Z) titled "На базе бывшего завода Шпагина в Перми открыта выставка "Оружие Победы," showing multiple photos of a military exhibition, including a banner for a "Motor Rifle Battalion Perm Krai" veterans group. New message: Два майора posts a video (07:50:14Z, 07:50:15Z) titled "⭐️Будни украинского ухилянта," depicting a man doing push-ups, which is RUF propaganda intended to mock UAF personnel and recruitment. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages (07:51:00Z, 07:51:01Z) captioned "Курская область," which is likely RUF BDA or territorial claims. New message: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports Rosstat has classified demographic data. (07:58:44Z). New message: РБК-Україна reports 3 more opposition mayors detained in Turkey. (07:59:04Z, 07:59:05Z). New message: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) posts multiple photo messages regarding a children's event called "Camp at the Stable" as part of the "People of the Future" project. This is civilian content, morale-boosting, and unrelated to direct military operations. New message: Fighterbomber video shows large cargo aircraft, likely transport, landing/taking off on snow-covered runway. Presence of RA- registration implies Russian aircraft. New message: ТАСС video shows a light aircraft crash in Omsk Oblast, civilian. New message: AV БогомаZ posts several photos and a video of a cultural festival in Bryansk Oblast, confirming it's a civilian event. New message: ТАСС reports the head of Karabudakhkentsky district of Dagestan, Mahmud Amiraliyev, was recalled from the SVO zone before his detention, where he had gone about a month ago. New message: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message "Американцам с этим жить." (Americans have to live with this). This is a screenshot of a news article about Trump and Putin, with a composite image of them in front of burning buildings. This is RUF propaganda. New message: РБК-Україна reports 💥 Поблизу Владивостока вибухнув газогін, який забезпечує ворожу 155-у бригаду, - джерела. This is a significant UAF claim of a successful deep strike against RUF logistics in the far east, specifically targeting the 155th Marine Brigade's supply. New message: Операция Z posts photo message claiming Trump gave Putin a "green light" to intensify attacks on Ukraine, citing The Telegraph. This is RUF propaganda. New message: Александр Вилкул provides a briefing on the results of cooperation. This is civilian/administrative content, no military relevance. New message: Colonelcassad posts a video titled "Народная любовь, от которой не спрятаться, не скрыться," showing an unidentified individual holding what appears to be a firearm in a public setting. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports group of strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a new, ongoing UAV threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF Control Measures:

    • Air raid alerts are active for Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kirovohrad Oblasts and multiple Russian regions (Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Chuvashia, Leningrad). New message: Nationwide air raid alert due to MiG-31K takeoff, now lifted. New message: New ballistic missile threat from south, now lifted.
    • Traffic restrictions in Kyiv (damaged railway infrastructure, partial road closures), Nizhny Novgorod (mobile communication and internet disruptions), and Sheremetyevo airport (temporary halt of departures), Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg), Izhevsk airport, Ivanovo airport, Ulyanovsk airport. New: Kirov airport restrictions lifted. Khmelnytskyi Oblast is changing air raid alert procedures for UAVs from July 7. Traffic blocked in Cheboksary near VNIIR-Progress. Crimean Bridge traffic temporarily suspended.
    • Airspace restrictions reported for Izhevsk, Pulkovo (St. Petersburg), Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Ivanovo, and Moscow airports in Russia.
    • "Yellow level" and "red level" UAV threats issued and lifted for various Russian Oblasts (Lipetsk, Belgorod). New: Yellow level air danger regime introduced across all of Lipetsk Oblast. Rocket danger announced for Belgorod Oblast.
    • Civilian sheltering in metro stations in Kyiv.
    • Evacuation of civilians from affected areas where possible.
    • Emergency services (KVMVA, Dnipropetrovsk RMA, DSNs Kharkiv, Police) are actively engaged in damage assessment, fire suppression, and humanitarian aid.
    • Ukrainian SBU continues counter-sabotage and counter-recruitment efforts.
    • New: MoD Russia video shows assault detachments of the Vostok Group of Forces practicing capturing strongholds on motorbikes in a rear area.
    • New: Colonelcassad video shows Russian military personnel assembling and preparing a drone (Supercam S350), with interview segments on drone capabilities and mission success factors.
    • New: Alex Parker Returns video shows law enforcement action against drug cultivation in Kyiv. New message: ТАСС reports Telegram users complaining of outages, mainly in Moscow. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and National Police detained a RUF agent who detonated a car in Odesa today, with video and photos of the agent and scene. New message: STERNENKO posts video and photos of the detained agent and the damaged car in Odesa, confirming the explosion was an SBU/National Police operation against a RUF agent. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photos of Russian raids to identify individuals involved in "neo-Nazi underground" used by Ukrainian special services for sabotage in Russia. New message: Два майора posts a video titled "The most ordinary 'train' at the airfield," showing several individuals moving missile-like ordnance on wheeled platforms on a tarmac, implying logistical activity. New message: ASTRA reports RUF MoD claims 48 UAVs destroyed over Russian regions from 13:50 to 19:00 MSK. New message: ТАСС reports RUF MoD claims 48 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in five hours. New message: Colonelcassad reports traffic has been restored on the Crimean Bridge. New message: Два майора posts video showing an individual resembling Donald Trump on a subway train. This is civilian content with potential propaganda value. New message: ASTRA reports over 120 flights canceled and dozens delayed at Sheremetyevo airport. This is a significant disruption to Russian civilian air travel. New message: РБК-Україна posts video titled "Attack of unknown drones caused collapse in Russian airports." This corroborates airport disruptions due to UAF deep strikes. Confidence: HIGH.

1.5. Key Terrain Observations:

  • Kyiv: Critical infrastructure (railway, power substations, residential areas, public services) heavily impacted by RUF strikes.
  • Chasiv Yar: Kanal microdistrict remains a critical contested urban area, with RUF attempting to secure footholds. RUF claims 15 enemy Mavics shot down in this direction. RUF claims control of the main part of the city.
  • Kharkiv: Vovchansk and Lyptsi areas remain active, with RUF consolidating gains. Melove and Stroevka are RUF claimed gains. Chuhuiv suffered significant damage to a Nova Poshta branch and a fuel depot. Syrsky states 10 attacks daily in South Slobozhanskyi direction. Kupiansk direction saw RUF advances west of Vyshneve and clearing of forest area. Velykyi Burluk is being prepared for defense by UAF.
  • Kryvyi Rih: Civilian infrastructure and public transport severely impacted by strikes. Voskresenka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) is a claimed RUF ground advance. Stepanivka is confirmed target of RUF "Geranium" strikes.
  • Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Repeated blackouts pose significant safety risks, highlighting its strategic vulnerability.
  • Russian Border Regions: Intensified UAF deep strikes on military airfields (Engels, Borisoglebsk), industrial targets (Cheboksary, Vutherm boiler factory, VNIIR-Progress), and logistics infrastructure (Lipetsk truck fire, M-4 Don highway collision).
  • Oskil River: Ferry crossings reportedly targeted by RUF to disrupt UAF logistics.
  • Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast): RUF demining operations suggest potential riverine or amphibious intentions.
  • Starokostiantyniv Airfield (Khmelnytskyi Oblast): Remains a high-value target for RUF, with massed UAV attacks aimed at degrading UAF aviation capabilities. Multiple "Kinzhal" missile strikes confirmed against this target. UAF claims attack was without consequences.
  • Dzerzhinsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): New RUF photo message indicates RUF focus and claimed presence in this area.
  • Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims capturing fortifications.
  • Iskra (Andriivka-Klevtsove): Bridge destroyed on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • Swedish Trade Representation (Stockholm): New, non-conventional attack on Russian trade representation.
  • Siversk (Donetsk Oblast): New RUF claim of troops entering Siversk, indicating a significant ground advance if confirmed.
  • Zelenyi Kut and Novoukrainka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): New UAF report confirms RUF ground forces entered these areas near Dachne. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:

    • Precision Strike Capability: RUF continues to demonstrate extensive precision strike capabilities across all domains (air, missile, UAV). The use of Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, Kh-101/555 cruise missiles, and massed Shahed (Geranium) UAVs indicates a sustained ability to conduct complex, multi-axis aerial assaults. The reported use of FABs with UMPK (glide bombs) over Kryvyi Rih indicates an adaptation of unguided munitions for improved stand-off and accuracy, posing a significant threat to urban centers. The showcased Pakistani 'Shahpar-III' UAV is a global development but not an immediate RUF capability.
    • UAV Production/Deployment: The high volume of Shaheds (322 launched, 292 neutralized) indicates continued high production/procurement capacity. The advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (cameras, CRPA antennas, radio modems) suggest a dual-role (reconnaissance and strike) capability, enhancing real-time targeting. RUF claims of mass production of "Upyr" kamikaze drones and testing of "Berdysh" drones point to further expansion of their drone arsenal and tactical adaptations.
    • Ground Offensive Operations: RUF maintains the capability to conduct high-intensity assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, employing platoon-sized elements, VDV, and FPV drones. Claims of localized advances and clearing operations, even if contested, demonstrate their continued ground combat effectiveness in attritional warfare.
    • Artillery and Air Support: Continued extensive use of tube and rocket artillery, as well as tactical aviation with KABs/KARs (glide bombs), provides significant fire support for ground operations and deep strikes.
    • Electronic Warfare (EW): RUF continues to employ EW assets to protect ground movements and counter UAF drones. The deployment of robotic infantry complex "Sarmat-Mgla" with EW capabilities further enhances this.
    • Counter-UAV Capabilities: RUF claims significant success in intercepting UAF UAVs over Russian territory (e.g., 94 UAVs overnight). Their FPV drones are also actively used to counter UAF drones. Training exercises for shooting down air targets confirm this is a prioritized defense.
  • Intentions:

    • Degrade Ukrainian Air Defense: The persistent massed missile and UAV strikes against Kyiv, Starokostiantyniv, and other strategic targets aim to overwhelm and deplete Ukrainian air defense systems. RUF claims of "Gepard" and other AD resource exhaustion in Kyiv are likely disinformation but indicate this intent.
    • Disrupt Ukrainian Logistics and Industry: Targeting railway infrastructure, power substations, oil depots, and industrial facilities (e.g., Cheboksary factory, BorisoGlebsk airfield) seeks to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial capacity and civilian resilience. The UAF claim of destroying a gas pipeline near Vladivostok supplying the 155th Marine Brigade is a significant indicator of this intent for UAF deep strikes.
    • Force Ukrainian Reserve Commitment: The continued pressure on key axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv) and the suspected buildup on the Sumy axis are designed to fix and draw Ukrainian strategic reserves.
    • Inflict Civilian Casualties and Undermine Morale: Widespread strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure (e.g., Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv) are intended to terrorize the population and undermine public support for the war.
    • Consolidate Territorial Gains: Continued localized ground assaults and claims of "liberation" in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate an intent to secure and expand occupied territory.
    • Counter UAF Deep Strikes: The high number of reported UAV interceptions over Russian territory demonstrates RUF's commitment to defending against UAF deep strike operations.
  • Courses of Action (COA):

    • COA 1: Sustained Deep Strike Campaign (Ongoing): Continue large-scale, multi-domain missile and UAV attacks across Ukraine, focusing on AD suppression, energy infrastructure, and military-industrial targets. High confidence.
    • COA 2: Intensified Ground Offensives in Donbas: Maintain and potentially increase the intensity of ground assaults in the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, aiming for incremental territorial gains and UAF attrition. High confidence.
    • COA 3: Limited Cross-Border Incursion (Sumy/Kharkiv): Launch a limited incursion into Sumy Oblast from the Sudzha area (or renew/intensify efforts in Kharkiv) to fix Ukrainian reserves and create new pressure points. This is the MLCOA for a new axis of advance. Medium confidence.
    • COA 4: Enhanced Defensive and Counter-UAV Measures in Russia: Prioritize air defense, EW, and internal security measures to counter increased UAF deep strike activity against Russian territory. High confidence.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Increased ISR/Targeting Capabilities of Shaheds: Downed "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones over Kyiv equipped with cameras, CRPA antennas, and radio modems indicate RUF is evolving these platforms from simple loitering munitions to advanced reconnaissance-strike assets. This allows for improved targeting accuracy and post-strike battle damage assessment (BDA).
  • Introduction of New Loitering Munitions/UAVs: Claims of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv and "Upyr" and "Berdysh" drones suggest RUF is continually developing and deploying new UAV types to sustain and diversify their aerial attack capabilities.
  • Adaptive Glide Bomb Deployment: The reported first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih indicates RUF is adapting its conventional aerial munitions to achieve greater precision and stand-off range, mitigating risks to their aviation.
  • Focus on Specific UAF AD Assets: RUF claims of destroying Patriot launchers and radar stations, while unconfirmed by UAF, highlight RUF's continued focus on degrading advanced Western-supplied air defense systems.
  • Shift in UAF Deep Strike Targeting (from RUF perspective): Zelenskiy's video suggesting UAF deep strikes are now impacting RUF artillery shell usage by targeting arsenals, indicates UAF is adapting its deep strike strategy to specific RUF logistical vulnerabilities.
  • RUF Internal Security Operations: The "preventive measures" against alleged "neo-Nazi underground" and arrests in various Russian cities point to a heightened internal security posture, likely in response to increased UAF deep strike and partisan activities.
  • "Mobile Observation Groups" for Assaults: RUF source "Strashe Eddy" claims that due to decreasing "Geranium" effectiveness, personnel from Mobile Observation Groups will be used for assaults. If accurate, this indicates a shift in force employment and a potential degradation of RUF reconnaissance capabilities if such personnel are diverted to ground assaults.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Ammunition Production (RUF): RUF sources claim significantly higher ammunition production than all NATO countries combined, as stated by Rutte in NYT. This is a bold claim, but even partial truth would indicate a strong sustainment base for their operations. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for scale, HIGH for claim itself).
  • UAV Production/Procurement (RUF): The sheer volume of Shaheds launched (322 in one night) and new drone types being introduced ("Upyr," "Berdysh") indicate a robust and growing UAV supply chain, possibly supported by foreign components (Chinese parts in Geraniums).
  • Deep Strike Targeting of RUF Logistics (UAF): UAF claims of striking RUF military and industrial facilities, particularly oil refineries and arsenals, are aimed at directly impacting RUF logistics and sustainment. The claim of a gas pipeline near Vladivostok supplying the 155th Marine Brigade, if confirmed, would represent a significant UAF interdiction success.
  • Internal RUF Logistics Issues: Reports from "Dva Mayora" about popular aid not reaching front lines, but rather headquarters or training, indicate potential internal logistical inefficiencies or corruption within the RUF system, which could impact front-line unit sustainment and morale.
  • Food Shortages in Occupied Territories: Moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka suggests challenges in food supply for civilian populations in RUF-controlled areas, which could indirectly impact RUF’s ability to control and pacify these regions.
  • Manpower Issues (RUF): The RUF claim of a new UAF battalion in Sumy formed mainly of pre-pensioners is RUF propaganda, but the broader narrative around "mobilization potential" and "evaders" in RUF media suggests underlying manpower concerns, despite claims of high combat losses. The alleged forced mobilization in Ukraine by RUF is also propaganda, aiming to portray Ukraine as a "concentration camp."

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • RUF Centralized Command: The coordinated, multi-axis missile and UAV attacks suggest centralized planning and effective top-down command and control for strategic operations.
  • Localized Autonomy/Adaptation (RUF): The widespread and diverse use of FPV drones by various RUF units (e.g., 132nd OMSBr, "Rubikon", "Viking", "Kaskad", "Maksim Krivonos Battalion") indicates a degree of decentralized tactical command and adaptation in drone warfare. The "Anvar" SpN unit operating in border areas also demonstrates small unit autonomy.
  • UAF Centralized Command/Air Defense: UAF Air Force issuing nationwide alerts and reporting coordinated AD operations demonstrates effective centralized command for air defense.
  • UAF Tactical Adaptations: The successful use of sniper teams to down Shaheds and ground drones for medical evacuation under fire highlights UAF adaptation and decentralized initiative at the tactical level.
  • Impact of UAF Deep Strikes on RUF C2: UAF claim of striking the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast, if confirmed, would significantly degrade RUF tactical and operational C2 in that sector.
  • RUF Internal Security Issues affecting C2: The recall and detention of the Head of Karabudakhkentsky district from the SVO zone due to an internal security issue suggests potential disruptions or vulnerabilities within RUF's leadership and administrative structures, which could impact overall military effectiveness.
  • Propaganda as a C2 tool (RUF): RUF continues to use its media channels to reinforce narratives, disseminate claims (e.g., UAF command losses, UAF AD exhaustion), and influence public opinion, serving as a component of their information warfare.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Air Defense (AD) Posture: UAF AD remains active and highly engaged, neutralizing a significant number of RUF UAVs (292 out of 322 launched). However, the sheer volume of attacks leads to impacts and casualties, indicating AD saturation or resource strain. The reported change in air raid alert procedures for UAVs in Khmelnytskyi Oblast indicates adaptation to the persistent threat. RUF claims of depleted AD resources in Kyiv (Gepards) are likely propaganda but highlight the pressure on UAF AD. The claim of the "Kinzhal" attack on Starokostiantyniv being "without consequences" suggests effective AD, but this requires further verification.
  • Ground Force Resilience: UAF forces continue to repel RUF assaults across multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, Kherson, Sumy). The 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade demonstrates professionalism and effective combat operations. The 5th Assault Brigade's successful counter-battery strike in Kramatorsk highlights offensive capability.
  • UAV Capabilities (UAF): UAF continues to demonstrate effective use of FPV drones for precision strikes against RUF equipment and personnel. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade and "Hostri Kartuzy" unit videos confirm this capability. The reported destruction of "Zhdun" fiber optic drones by the 114th Brigade indicates advanced counter-drone capabilities.
  • Deep Strike Capability (UAF): UAF continues to conduct long-range drone strikes against military and industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory, including airfields, manufacturing plants, and oil refineries (e.g., Cheboksary, Borisoglebsk, Engels, Lipetsk, Vladivostok pipeline). This demonstrates a significant, expanding capability to project power into enemy rear areas and disrupt logistics.
  • Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC): The successful evacuation of wounded soldiers via ground drone under FPV drone attack highlights UAF's innovative and resilient approach to combat casualty care.
  • Logistics and Support (UAF): While under pressure, UAF maintains efforts to restore critical infrastructure (Kyiv railway, Kryvyi Rih tram/trolleybus) and support military units (Zaporizhzhia RMA aid to military units). Poland's stated 9x increase in 155mm ammunition production is a significant positive development for UAF artillery sustainment.
  • Morale and Training: Videos showcasing UAF training (OTU "Kharkiv") and veteran support projects (Dnipropopetrovsk RMA) indicate ongoing efforts to maintain combat readiness and boost morale.
  • Defensive Preparations: UAF is preparing for defense in areas like Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating proactive adaptation to anticipated RUF movements.
  • Prisoner Exchanges: Continued prisoner exchanges (e.g., involving Kharkiv Oblast personnel) are positive for morale and demonstrate ongoing diplomatic/humanitarian efforts.
  • Counter-Sabotage Efforts: SBU's detention of a RUF spotter in Kyiv and a RUF agent in Odesa demonstrates effective counter-intelligence and security operations.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:

    • High Interception Rate of RUF UAVs: UAF AD claims 292 out of 322 RUF UAVs neutralized, a significant success in mitigating the massed attack.
    • Effective Deep Strikes: UAF long-range drone strikes on RUF military and industrial targets in Russia (e.g., Cheboksary, Borisoglebsk, Engels, Lipetsk, Vladivostok pipeline) demonstrate an expanding capability to degrade RUF logistics and production.
    • Counter-Battery Operations: The 5th Assault Brigade's strike on a RUF Nona-S self-propelled artillery system in Kramatorsk direction indicates successful counter-battery efforts.
    • Drone Countermeasures: The 114th Brigade's successful engagement of a RUF "Zhdun" fiber optic drone highlights advanced counter-drone capabilities.
    • Resilience and Rapid Restoration: Quick restoration of rail traffic in Kyiv and tram/trolleybus in Kryvyi Rih demonstrates robust infrastructure repair capabilities.
    • Targeted Counter-Insurgency: SBU detention of a RUF spotter in Kyiv and a RUF agent in Odesa shows effective internal security.
    • Successful MEDEVAC under Fire: Using ground drones for medical evacuation under enemy FPV drone attack is an innovative and critical success.
    • Successful FPV Drone Operations: "Evil Beavers" (Zlyuky Bobry) unit video confirms successful UAF FPV drone strikes, inflicting personnel and equipment losses.
    • Significant Enemy Losses: The claimed 1050 RUF combat losses in the last 24 hours indicate continued high attrition rates inflicted by UAF.
  • Setbacks:

    • Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Despite high interception rates, RUF strikes continue to inflict significant civilian casualties (26 wounded, 1 fatality in Kyiv; 11 injured including 2 children in Chuhuiv; 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih; 4 fatalities in Donetsk) and widespread damage to residential, energy, and railway infrastructure.
    • AD Saturation: The sheer volume of RUF aerial attacks (322 UAVs, multiple ballistic/cruise missiles) continues to challenge UAF AD, leading to some successful penetrations.
    • Localized RUF Ground Advances: RUF claims of entering Siversk, capturing fortifications near Velyka Novosilka, and entering Zelenyi Kut and Novoukrainka (near Dachne) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicate tactical setbacks in some ground sectors, although these claims require further UAF confirmation.
    • Loss of Equipment: RUF claims of destroying UAF howitzers, armored vehicles (MaxxPro MRAP), and the 110th Mechanized Brigade command post (CONFIDENCE: LOW for scale of C2 loss, HIGH for strike itself) indicate combat losses. Colonelcassad's claim of Lancet strikes on a UAF M-46 field gun also indicates equipment loss.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • AD Systems and Munitions: The sustained high volume of RUF air attacks necessitates a continuous and robust supply of AD systems and interceptor missiles/munitions. Zelenskiy's discussion with Trump regarding Patriot systems is a positive development but highlights ongoing needs.
  • Reconstruction and Humanitarian Aid: The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and the rising casualty count demand significant resources for emergency services, medical aid, and long-term reconstruction.
  • Counter-Artillery Ammunition: The stated shift in UAF deep strike targeting to RUF arsenals suggests an ongoing need to reduce enemy artillery advantage and implies UAF is constrained in direct counter-battery fire.
  • Drones and EW: Continued provision of FPV drones, counter-drone systems, and EW equipment is crucial for both offensive and defensive operations. Ukrainian crowdfunding efforts for military equipment indicate a persistent need beyond state provisions.
  • Personnel: Sustaining combat operations across multiple active fronts, combined with attritional losses, places a continuous demand on military personnel. The claimed formation of a UAF battalion from pre-pensioners (RUF propaganda) suggests RUF seeks to exploit this as a perceived vulnerability.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RUF Narratives:

    • "Ukronazi" and "Terrorist" Framing: RUF continues to portray UAF as "neo-Nazis" and "terrorists," particularly in response to UAF deep strikes on Russian territory and alleged attacks on police. The raids against "neo-Nazi underground" are part of this narrative.
    • Claimed UAF Casualties/Losses: RUF actively promotes claims of high UAF combat losses (e.g., 110th Brigade command, 155th Marine Brigade command, hundreds of missing soldiers), aiming to demoralize UAF and domestic audiences. They also claim "elimination" of foreign mercenaries.
    • "AD Exhaustion" in Kyiv: RUF attempts to portray Ukrainian AD as depleted, likely to encourage further strikes and instill fear.
    • "Russian Army Advances" and "Liberation": Consistent claims of tactical gains and "liberation" of settlements (e.g., Predtechyno, Melove, Stroevka, Yablonovka, Siversk, Voskresenka, Zelenyi Kut/Novoukrainka) despite contested reality, aimed at projecting success.
    • Discrediting Western Aid: RUF sources amplify narratives suggesting US withdrawal of arms supplies, aiming to create doubt and division within NATO. Trump's comments are being selectively amplified for this purpose, despite Trump's statements about potentially supplying Patriot missiles. BlackRock's decision to stop seeking investors for Ukraine reconstruction is also being used to highlight uncertainty.
    • Portraying Ukraine as a "Concentration Camp": RUF uses this extreme rhetoric to justify their invasion and promote draft evasion.
    • "Heroic" RUF Actions: Videos showcasing FPV drone successes, artillery strikes, and "Akhmat" unit actions are used to boost RUF troop morale and project strength. Claims of shooting down large numbers of enemy drones and Patriot systems are also part of this. The exhibition "Weapons of Victory" reinforces this.
    • Internal Stability and Control: Kadyrov's videos and other reports on internal security measures are intended to project an image of stability and control within Russia, despite recent internal attacks.
    • International Support for RUF: The (false) claim of Laos demining Kursk Oblast is a clumsy attempt to fabricate international support. The video of the rally of Columbian mercenaries' relatives is used to pressure foreign fighter recruitment. The claim that Macron's call to Putin acknowledges Russia's necessity in world politics is a self-serving narrative.
  • UAF Narratives:

    • "Terrorist Act" by Russia: UAF consistently frames RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure as "terrorist acts," emphasizing the humanitarian impact and RUF's disregard for international law.
    • Showcasing Resilience and Restoration: Rapid repair of damaged infrastructure and continued civilian services are highlighted to demonstrate resilience and effective governance. The new firefighting robot is an example.
    • Reporting RUF Losses: UAF consistently reports high RUF combat losses (e.g., 1050 personnel in 24h), aiming to undermine RUF morale and project UAF effectiveness. The SBU's claim of striking 97 units of heavy weaponry aligns with this.
    • Highlighting Deep Strike Successes: UAF highlights its long-range drone strikes on Russian military and industrial targets, emphasizing its ability to project power and impact RUF logistics. The strike on Cheboksary factory is a key example.
    • Veteran Support and Training: UAF channels promote veteran support projects and combat training videos to bolster morale and recruitment efforts.
    • Calling out RUF Disinformation: UAF and pro-Ukrainian channels often debunk RUF claims (e.g., RUF claims of depleted AD).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Civilian Morale: While resilient, repeated massed attacks on urban centers like Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, with increasing casualties and infrastructure damage, will inevitably cause psychological strain and fear. The need for continuous sheltering in metro stations disrupts daily life. The electrocution incident at Nizhyn train station is a civilian tragedy that could impact public confidence in safety.
  • Ukrainian Military Morale: High AD interception rates, successful deep strikes, and effective tactical engagements will boost military morale. However, attritional combat and sustained RUF pressure on the front lines remain a challenge. Efforts to support veterans are crucial for long-term morale.
  • Russian Civilian Morale: Increased UAF deep strikes on Russian territory, leading to airport closures, industrial fires, and localized disruptions (e.g., Moscow internet outages), could slowly erode public confidence in RUF's ability to protect its citizens. The Nalchik attack and internal security raids may cause localized concern. Civilian complaints about Telegram outages reflect this.
  • Russian Military Morale: Claims of destroying UAF command elements and equipment, coupled with reports of advances, aim to boost morale. However, reports from RUF sources about internal aid distribution issues and the alleged diversion of mobile observation groups to assaults suggest potential underlying morale issues or discontent within parts of the RUF forces. Videos of heavy losses (e.g., cemetery footage) could also impact morale.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • US Aid to Ukraine: Zelenskiy's positive conversation with Trump, specifically regarding Patriot systems, is a significant positive development for future US military aid and a potential shift in US policy perception. However, the previous NBC News report about US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies (amplified by RUF) highlighted past concerns and RUF attempts to exploit perceived divisions. BlackRock stopping investor seeking for Ukraine reconstruction fund is a negative sign for long-term financial support.
  • EU Sanctions against Israel: The EU's proposed sanctions against Israel are a separate geopolitical development but highlight ongoing international tensions that could divert attention or resources.
  • Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan Relations: The reported increase in RUF military presence in Armenia amid worsening relations with Azerbaijan is a significant geopolitical shift that could impact regional stability and RUF force posture. This is a new development that warrants close monitoring.
  • Laos involvement in Demining (RUF Claim): The GUR's assessment that Russia is trying to involve Laotian military personnel in demining Kursk Oblast is an unusual and unconfirmed claim, but if true, would be a new avenue for RUF to acquire external assistance.
  • Czech Blackout: While attributed to technical reasons, a mass blackout in a NATO/EU country highlights vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure that could be exploited or impact international perceptions of security.
  • RUF Trade Representation Attack (Sweden): The drone attack on the Russian trade representation in Sweden, if confirmed, is a novel form of aggression on diplomatic targets in a non-combatant country, carrying significant diplomatic implications.
  • Poland's Ammunition Production: Poland's announced 9-fold increase in 155mm ammunition production directly benefits Ukraine's sustainment capabilities and signals continued, strengthened Western support.
  • Rutte's Comments on US Military Presence: Rutte's statement that US military presence in Europe is not being discussed indicates continued NATO commitment and stability.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • MLCOA 1: Continue Massed Aerial Assaults (High Confidence): RUF will sustain large-scale, multi-domain missile and UAV attacks targeting Ukrainian AD, energy infrastructure, and military-industrial facilities, particularly focusing on Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv. This aims to attrit Ukrainian AD capabilities and degrade the will to fight. The scale of the latest drone attack (322 UAVs) and Kinzhal launches indicate a sustained capacity for such operations.
  • MLCOA 2: Sustained Pressure on Donbas Front Lines (High Confidence): RUF will maintain high-intensity ground assaults along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, aiming for incremental territorial gains and high attrition of UAF forces. The reported 27 attacks in Pokrovsk and 10 in Kramatorsk directions within 24 hours support this.
  • MLCOA 3: Increased Reconnaissance and Probing in Sumy/Kharkiv Border Regions (High Confidence): Given the reported force buildup near Sudzha, RUF will increase reconnaissance, probing attacks, and cross-border shelling/KAB strikes in Sumy Oblast and continue fixing operations in Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk/Lyptsi) to further stretch UAF defenses and potentially draw reserves.
  • MLCOA 4: Continued UAF Deep Strike Response and Internal Security Measures (High Confidence): Russia will continue to face and respond to UAF deep strikes on its territory with air defense and enhanced internal security operations to prevent sabotage and perceived "terrorist" activities.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • MDCOA 1: Major Cross-Border Offensive into Sumy Oblast (Medium Confidence): RUF launches a full-scale ground offensive into Sumy Oblast, not necessarily aiming for deep penetration or Sumy city capture, but to establish a significant buffer zone and force a major redeployment of UAF reserves from critical Donbas sectors. The reported force grouping of up to 10,000 personnel near Sudzha suggests this as a real possibility. This would severely strain UAF manpower and equipment across an expanded front.
  • MDCOA 2: Decisive Strike on Key UAF AD/Aviation Assets (Medium Confidence): RUF executes a highly coordinated and successful strike package (combining ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and advanced ISR UAVs) resulting in the complete destruction or severe degradation of a critical UAF AD system (e.g., Patriot battery) or a major aviation hub (e.g., Starokostiantyniv airfield). This would open up Ukrainian airspace to more pervasive RUF air operations. The repeated Kinzhal strikes on Starokostiantyniv are a clear indicator of this intent. The UAF claim of "no consequences" from the latest Kinzhal strike on Starokostiantyniv is a positive indicator but should not lead to complacency.
  • MDCOA 3: Hybrid Escalation in NATO Border Regions (Low Confidence): RUF conducts further non-conventional attacks or significant cyber operations against critical infrastructure in NATO or EU countries (e.g., the Swedish trade representation attack, Czech blackout), aiming to test resolve, create instability, and potentially divert international attention from Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Sumy Incursion: If an incursion into Sumy Oblast is indeed planned, preparations (reconnaissance, logistical staging) suggest a 72-hour to 7-day window for initiation, depending on weather, force readiness, and RUF internal political decisions. Decision point for UAF to commit additional reserves to Sumy will be the confirmation of cross-border ground movement.
  • Sustained Deep Strikes: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct massed aerial assaults on a near-daily basis. Expect continued high-volume attacks, particularly after successful UAF deep strikes on Russian territory.
  • Donbas Front: RUF will likely sustain current offensive intensity for the foreseeable future, as this is their primary operational objective. Major breakthroughs are likely to be attritional and slow.
  • Strategic AD Commitment: The efficacy of current AD munitions and systems will remain a critical decision point. Sustained high consumption rates will require timely resupply or commitment of new systems. Zelenskiy's discussion on Patriot systems is crucial for this.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  1. PIR 1 (HIGH): Confirm the size, composition, and readiness of RUF forces in the Sudzha area (Sumy axis). Collection Requirement: Persistent multi-source ISR (SATINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT) on RUF force generation and movement patterns in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
  2. PIR 2 (MEDIUM): Determine the impact of UAF deep strikes on RUF military-industrial production and logistics, specifically on UAV and missile component manufacturing (e.g., Cheboksary factory, BorisoGlebsk airfield, Vladivostok pipeline). Collection Requirement: Post-strike BDA imagery, SIGINT for production output, and OSINT on local reports of economic disruption.
  3. PIR 3 (MEDIUM): Verify the veracity of RUF claims of territorial gains (e.g., Siversk, Voskresenka, Zelenyi Kut, Novoukrainka) and UAF combat losses (e.g., 110th Brigade command, Patriot systems). Collection Requirement: Ground-level intelligence, UAF BDA, and cross-referencing with other open-source reporting.
  4. PIR 4 (LOW): Assess the scale and purpose of RUF training for Dnipro River crossings. Collection Requirement: Imagery intelligence of training grounds in occupied southern Ukraine, SIGINT on riverine unit communications.
  5. PIR 5 (MEDIUM): Monitor the geopolitical fallout and RUF force posture changes related to Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions. Collection Requirement: Diplomatic reporting, media analysis, and military deployment tracking in the Caucasus region.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Allocate Strategic Reserves to Sumy (Immediate): Based on the confirmed force buildup near Sudzha, redeploy or pre-position a combined arms reserve force to Sumy Oblast, focused on anti-tank and mobile defense. This must be done without critically compromising defenses on other axes.
  2. Intensify ISR on Sumy Axis (Continuous): Prioritize all available ISR assets (satellite, UAV, and SIGINT) to the Sudzha-Sumy border area for continuous monitoring of RUF force disposition, logistics, and pre-assault indicators. Establish a 24/7 dedicated intelligence cell for this axis.
  3. Enhance Air Defense Layering in Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv (Immediate): Prioritize the allocation of Western-supplied AD systems (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) and interceptor munitions to Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv to counter continued ballistic and cruise missile attacks. Expedite training for new AD systems operators.
  4. Increase Deep Strike Capabilities (Continuous): Accelerate the production and deployment of long-range UAVs for strikes against RUF military-industrial targets and logistics hubs deep inside Russia. Identify and prioritize additional high-value targets based on intelligence.
  5. Strengthen Forward Defenses in Donbas (Continuous): Provide additional anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), FPV drones, and counter-battery fire solutions to units on the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes to counter persistent RUF ground assaults and artillery.
  6. Expedite Repair and Resilience Efforts: Allocate resources to rapidly repair damaged railway infrastructure, energy substations, and civilian buildings in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Chuhuiv. Implement emergency power generation solutions to mitigate future outages.
  7. Maintain Information Superiority (Continuous): Continue to counter RUF disinformation campaigns by providing timely, accurate, and transparent information on battlefield developments, RUF losses, and the humanitarian impact of attacks. Highlight UAF successes and resilience to maintain domestic and international support.

END OF REPORT

Previous (2025-07-05 18:04:23Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.