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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-05 09:38:19Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-05 09:07:47Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT 050929Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. Enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south. KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 26 casualties in Kyiv as of 0937Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. Partial traffic disruption confirmed. Severe structural damage to residential buildings, including a multi-story building engulfed in fire, confirmed by multiple sources. RBK-Ukraina reports 5 ambulances damaged in Kyiv due to the night attack, with no medical personnel casualties. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0543Z. Threat of collapse in a damaged five-story building in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv, reported. KVMVA states 550 air attack assets were launched by Russia against Ukraine, with almost all targeting Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports KVMVA statement re: "one of the largest combined attacks." OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports over 20 damaged locations and over 20 casualties in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos of significant damage from night attacks in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged Nova Poshta branches in Kyiv. Damaged book publishing warehouse "Nash Format" in Kyiv confirmed. Polish consulate in Kyiv was damaged during massed strike. RUF MoD claims a massed strike by RF Aerospace Forces on military infrastructure in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged DTEK equipment and destroyed two transformer substations in Kyiv during the attack. Basurin o Glavnom posts video claiming "Kyiv underground" destroyed a UAF vehicle "in broad daylight," showing a burning vehicle. KVMVA reports a fatality found in Sviatoshynskyi district during cleanup. RBK-Ukraina also reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Tsaplienko also reports at least one fatality in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports circular electric train traffic has been restored in Kyiv. ASTRA reports a civilian fatality in Kyiv. KVMVA posts video confirming damage to a fire-rescue unit, windows blown out, facade damaged, but no personnel casualties. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts photo message indicating several "Gerbera" (likely Shahed) drones shot down over Kyiv had cameras, CRPA antennas, and radio modems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates this information, claiming these were shot down overnight. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and that UAF believes RUF has repeaters near Kyiv to extend range to Bryansk Oblast. Oleksii Biloshytskyi posts video highlighting night attacks on Kyiv. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a damaged Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River near Kyiv. KVMVA posts new photo messages of damaged buildings and vehicles in Kyiv, underscoring the "terrorist act" by Russia. РБК-Україна posts police footage from night in Kyiv showing "All in shelter! Lie down!" commands and emergency response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming to show the moment a drone hit a residential building in Kyiv. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo message "Удар по Киеву – город в дыму," confirming visual effects of the strike. Alex Parker Returns video showing explosion with mushroom cloud and agricultural sprayer vehicle, captioned "У хохлов это обычный четверг." This appears to be a RUF BDA video for a target in Ukraine, but the location is not specified beyond "Ukraine" (У хохлов). The presence of the agricultural sprayer suggests a civilian or dual-use target. This video does not contradict prior Kyiv reporting but represents a separate, likely significant, impact. RBK-Ukraina video featuring Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones during the night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms SBU detained a spotter who was guiding missiles and drones to Kyiv. Colonelcassad video shows a damaged fixed-wing drone, resembling a "Gerbera," floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv, which RUF claims is a decoy. РБК-Україна reports RUF launched "Shaheds" from multiple directions. Kyiv air raid alert. RUF UAV threat to Kyiv/Chernihiv. 1x Shahed flying towards/through Boryspil/Kyiv. UAF AD operating in Kyiv Oblast. Explosions in Kyiv. KVMVA warns residents not to leave shelters. RBK-Ukraina reports large number of attack drones in air raid regions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports large number of attack drones in air raid regions. UAF Air Force reports attention for Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports first arrivals of "Geraniums" as evening raid begins, and enemy expects 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborate this. RBK-Ukraina reports AD working in Kyiv. KVMVA reports UAV threat remains. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the primary vector for RUF strike UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. RBK-Ukraina also provides an update on RUF drone movement, including a tactical analysis of a provided image indicating drone paths. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims "Ресурс зенитных установок типа "Гепард" и других в Киеве практически исчерпан, - депутат Рады". Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." КМВА reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. RBK-Ukraina also reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. New Update: UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: KVMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports Kyiv under air raid alert. RBK-Ukraina confirms air raid alert in Kyiv. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1x Shahed (moped) flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms air raid alert due to UAV threat. New message: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1x Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). New message: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on Kyiv Oblast, moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts two video messages depicting buildings engulfed in flames at night, with emergency services present, indicating significant damage. New message: РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was affected by night drone attacks, with a photo message showing emergency services. This confirms ongoing damage assessment and response. New message: ТАСС reports that the Russian MoD says two UAVs flying towards Moscow have been destroyed by PVO forces, citing Moscow Mayor Sobyanin. This indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts and RUF AD response. New message: ASTRA confirms Mayor Sobyanin's report on two UAVs flying towards Moscow being repelled. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 292 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This is a UAF claim of successful AD operations. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia launched 322 drones against Ukraine last night. This confirms a high volume of RUF aerial attacks. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 292/322 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This corroborates the UAF Air Force claim and provides a ratio of neutralization. New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged. New message: РБК-Україна reports that emergency rescue operations have resumed in Kyiv at the sites of yesterday's hits. This indicates continued efforts to mitigate the damage from previous attacks. FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, significantly increased civilian casualties (up to 26 wounded), a confirmed fatality in Sviatoshynskyi district, damaged railway infrastructure, damaged DTEK equipment, and destroyed two transformer substations confirmed in Kyiv. A residential house in Hatne was hit by a drone. Civilians are sheltering in metro stations. Traffic disruptions and widespread smoke confirmed. Emergency services are actively engaged in BDA and fire suppression across multiple districts, utilizing aviation. New video/photo evidence confirms severe structural damage to residential buildings, including damage to Nova Poshta branches and a book publishing warehouse. 5 ambulances were damaged. Threat of collapse in Solomyanskyi district. RUF claims strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport. KVMVA confirms "one of the largest combined attacks" with 550 air attack assets launched against Ukraine, majority targeting Kyiv. Consequences are being fixed in three Kyiv districts. KVMDA claims low air pollution. Polish consulate was damaged. RUF propaganda highlights air quality issues in Kyiv and expresses satisfaction with the strikes. RUF MoD claims confirm intent to hit military and strategic infrastructure. Damage to a fire-rescue unit is a direct strike on emergency services, compounding the humanitarian impact. The increase in casualties and the confirmed fatality underscores the severity of the attack. Damage to DTEK equipment and substations indicates targeting of energy infrastructure. The claimed "Kyiv underground" attack on a UAF vehicle is RUF disinformation aiming to portray internal resistance within Ukraine, but lacks credible verification. Restoration of circular electric train traffic demonstrates UAF resilience in restoring critical infrastructure. Discovery of Chinese components in Geranium UAVs highlights international supply chain for RUF military hardware. The advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (Gerbera) indicate RUF is using them not just for strike but also for reconnaissance and targeting updates, a notable tactical evolution. Alex Parker Returns's claim regarding new reconnaissance drones and UAF assessment of repeaters supports the the UAF reporting on the ISR capabilities of downed Shaheds and confirms the RUF intent to use these drones for advanced reconnaissance. Downed Shahed drone confirmed in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. KVMVA's new photos reinforce the severe damage and frame it as a "terrorist act." Police footage and drone strike video confirm continued intense civilian impact and emergency response. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo further corroborates widespread smoke in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns video shows large explosion/mushroom cloud with an agricultural sprayer, likely from a RUF strike in Ukraine, though location unspecified. Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones. SBU detained a spotter in Kyiv. New video confirms damaged "Gerbera" drone in Dnipro. RUF launched Shaheds from multiple directions. Kyiv under air raid alert. RUF UAVs threaten Kyiv/Chernihiv. 1x Shahed approaching Boryspil/Kyiv. UAF AD is engaged in Kyiv Oblast. Explosions reported in Kyiv. Civilians sheltering in metro confirmed. KVMVA, RBK-Ukraina, Operatyvnyi ZSU, and UAF Air Force confirm large number of attack drones. Colonelcassad reports initial "Geranium" arrivals and enemy expectation of 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. RUF strike UAVs are actively moving towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF AD is operating in Kyiv. Primary vector for RUF strike UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina report updated information on RUF UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. New RUF claim regarding Gepard and other AD resource exhaustion in Kyiv. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Kyiv air raid alarm ended. New Update: UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: Kyiv under air raid alert. 1x Shahed flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary. New message confirms 1x Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts two videos showing a burning building at night, consistent with ongoing attacks. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports Kyiv Oblast was affected by night drone attacks, with emergency services photos. New message: TASS reports two UAVs flying towards Moscow were destroyed by PVO. New message: ASTRA corroborates two UAVs towards Moscow repelled. New message: UAF Air Force reports 292 enemy UAVs neutralized. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports Russia launched 322 drones last night. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 292/322 enemy UAVs neutralized. New message: TASS reports airspace restrictions in Moscow. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports emergency rescue operations have resumed at the sites of yesterday's hits in Kyiv, with accompanying photos. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykhalchyna Sloboda of Chernihiv region. General Staff of UAF posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag erected on the border with Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF destroying a RUF flag on the border. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Chernihiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Kyiv/Chernihiv. UAF Air Force reports renewed information on RUF strike UAV movement, specifically towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports RUF struck Chernihiv Oblast with an FPV drone, with accompanying photos of damage to a residential building and vehicles. FACT: 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykhalchyna Sloboda. UAF destroyed a RUF flag on the border. RUF UAV active in Chernihiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Chernihiv remains. UAF Air Force reports primary vector of UAVs is towards Western Oblasts, with new Shaheds from the North. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: RUF struck Chernihiv Oblast with an FPV drone, causing damage. JUDGMENT: RUF continues to use tactical aviation for strikes near border areas. UAF maintains active counter-reconnaissance/symbolic actions in border areas. Continued RUF UAV activity indicates ongoing reconnaissance/strike intent. New video corroborates UAF action. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. RUF UAV threat to Chernihiv remains, with shifting vectors potentially indicating new targets deeper in Ukraine. The FPV drone strike indicates RUF's diversified targeting methods and continued pressure on border regions. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties in Kryvyi Rih (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the afternoon/evening. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (previously 7). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports RUF combat losses as 1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, and 3 special equipment units in the last day. TASS reports ZNPP power supply has been restored, and the 750 kV "Dniprovska" line is operational. Fighterbomber reports a dozen and a half "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones took off from Poltava airfield. TASS reports three casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including two children, one in serious condition, due to UAF attack. Serhiy Lysak reports not to ignore air raid alert. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts low-quality aerial footage of a settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора posts a video claiming "Zaporizhzhia Front" with aerial footage of a settlement, likely from a drone. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "Uvaha!" (Attention!) alert. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "all clear". TASS reports over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse corroborates this. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a series of photos showing damaged civilian vehicles and structures, with a caption indicating that the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs. This new message confirms continued RUF attacks on Dnipropetropak Oblast, using both artillery and UAVs, and provides visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a heavily damaged structure or vehicle, with a caption "Днепропетровское направление." This suggests ongoing combat or attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction from a RUF perspective, likely damage caused by RUF. New message: ТАСС reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility, citing the Ministry of Defense, and includes a video showcasing Ka-52 helicopters in flight and live fire. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video with the caption "Удари по Чебоксарському «ВНИИР» настільки вразили кацапа, що той втратив навички формування думок в речення." The video shows plumes of dark smoke, suggesting ongoing impacts or fires. This implies a successful UAF deep strike impacting RUF industrial capability. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers (previously reported 6 total, new report confirms 2 injured civilian infrastructure strike). High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts confirming a visit from a US delegation. Blackout at ZNPP confirmed. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. New strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih confirmed, with preliminary 2 injured (now updated to 3 injured). RUF confirms new strike on Kryvyi Rih. New RUF UAV activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. Alex Parker Returns and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 videos corroborate large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kherson, Nikopol, and Kryvyi Rih, including damaged SUV and residential buildings. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 1x fatality in Vasylivskyi district and 1x wounded 54-year-old male and 1x wounded 10-year-old child in Vasylivskyi district. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. New video confirms Shahed hit on Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports significant RUF combat losses (1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, 3 special equipment units). ZNPP external power restored. 15x "Gerbera" (Shahed) UAVs launched from Poltava airfield. 3x casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF attack, including 2 children (1 serious). Serhiy Lysak confirms air raid alert for Dnipropetrovsk. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Два майора post videos of settlement in Zaporizhzhia front. Zaporizhzhia Oblast under air raid alert, then lifted. Over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts, with new Shaheds from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force confirms aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district, and enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports RUF attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs, with accompanying photos of damaged civilian vehicles and structures. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo with the caption "Днепропетровское направление," showing a heavily damaged structure. This is likely a RUF BDA post. New message: TASS reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video with the caption "Удари по Чебоксарському «ВНИИР» настільки вразили кацапа, що той втратив навички формування думок в речення." The video shows plumes of dark smoke, suggesting ongoing impacts or fires. This implies a successful UAF deep strike impacting RUF industrial capability. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. WarGonzo map indicates continued advances in the Chasiv Yar direction and claims for control of the Kanal microdistrict. WarGonzo also claims "liberation of Yablonovka" near Andriivka, indicating continued engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators destroying UAF strongpoints and technical means in the Huliaipole direction, specifically claiming destruction of a Ukrainian EW station. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast at 0538Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka of Donetsk region. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Myrne, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Razine, Promin, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Dachne and towards Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka, Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka in Pokrovsk direction yesterday. Clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Orikhiv direction. Clashes yesterday near Novozlatopil in Huliaipole direction. Clashes yesterday near Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Katerynivka in Toretsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Vyyimka, Serebryanka and Fedorivka in Siversk direction. Clashes yesterday near Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyny, Torske, Nadiya and towards Serebryanka, Dronivka and Shandryholove in Lyman direction. RUF source "Операция Z" claims a "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk (RUF claims against UAF rear bases). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video showing "FABing" in the Piddubne area by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army. TASS claims Russian forces cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade worked against enemy personnel and equipment in Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) posts video claiming destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims new targets hit in "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from Donetsk into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims " уточнение после удара по 110-й мехбригаде ВСУ" (clarification after strike on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade) with photo messages implying successful strike. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims "Армия России уничтожила всё командование 110-й бригады ВСУ одним ударом" (Russian Army destroyed entire command of UAF 110th Brigade with one strike). TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Военкор Котенок also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Операция Z also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact in Kramatorsk with photos showing smoke and damaged buildings, implying a strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk region. TASS reports UAF struck western Donetsk, with preliminary reports of casualties and 4 wounded. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio traffic from 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk area. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports UAF shelling of western Donetsk, with some targets intercepted by PVO. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports PVO working in Donetsk and a missile strike by UAF on western districts of DNR capital, claiming civilian casualties. Mash na Donbasse video claims UAF struck Petrovka in Donetsk, with preliminary 4 injured and some deceased. ASTRA video also shows damage in Trudovskoy village, western occupied Donetsk, due to UAF strike. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports liberation of Predtechyno in DNR. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition states 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Colonelcassad posts video showing destruction of a UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar on minefields. TASS posts video showing aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of occupied Donetsk. WarGonzo reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF shelling. Basurin o Glavnom posts video showing aftermath in western Donetsk from UAF strike, with claims of 4 dead, 4 wounded. Voenkor Kotenok posts video showing damage in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed." The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV activity in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving southwest. Mash na Donbasse reports 4 fatalities in Petrovka from explosions. Basurin o Glavnom discusses why bridges across the Dnieper are still intact. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RUF WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia, showing thermal imaging of a strike. Colonelcassad reports a night optical fiber drone hit a Swedish armored personnel carrier PBV302, filled with UAF infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with aggressive propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed," with an implication to Konstantinovka to "prepare." Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing military vehicles and positions, including Oshkosh M-ATV and BBM, with engagements and explosions, identified as "Donbas. Rubicon is working." Basurin o Glavnom repeats the claim that an "Iskander" strike on Huliaipole destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. TASS reports that RUF forces are approximately 3km from Konstantinovka (Donetsk) after liberating Predtechyno. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming "Wartime" operators working in Krasnoarmiisk direction, showing a damaged multi-story building. RUF "Воин DV" posts video showing FAB strikes by 11th Army Air Force and Air Defense Army near Voskresenka, claiming ground group advances. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts map claiming "04.07.25 Chasiv Yar - Levanevskogo," suggesting RUF presence or control. MoD Russia posts video "Msta-S self-propelled artillery system (Tsentr Group of Forces) destroys AFU firing position in Krasnoarmeysk direction," confirming artillery use. Colonelcassad posts video and photos of "Последствия прилета ракеты РСЗО «HIMARS» с шрапнельной боевой частью перед АС «Трудовская» в Петровском районе Донецка," confirming UAF HIMARS strike and casualties. Alex Parker Returns posts photos and text "По Донецку нанесен удар HIMARS. Четверо погибших. В последние дни хохлы значительно активизировали удары по Донецку и Луганску. Используют HIMARS и ракеты Storm Shadow," corroborating UAF HIMARS strikes and confirming fatalities in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message "Краснолиманское направление," indicating ongoing focus on this axis. Colonelcassad video indicates tactical successes and active combat in the Siversk direction, showing drone footage of artillery/mortar strikes in a wooded area. RUF WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on enemy personnel from the 36th Guards Brigade. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition photo message shows consequences of a strike (likely UAF) on a civilian object in Shebekino, Belgorod. WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry, specifically a MaxxPro MRAP. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows destruction of a concealed position, likely a RUF "quadrober" (quadcopter user) or small structure. РБК-Україна reports UAF struck the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows the aftermath of a suspected missile strike on a multi-story residential building, claiming "ВСУ продолжает расстреливать дома гражданских." Colonelcassad reports FPV drone strikes by the Maksim Krivonos Battalion on nationalist equipment in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. The accompanying video from Colonelcassad shows drone footage of an engagement with a ground vehicle, possibly a tank or APC, and explosions. The video displays watermarks that may indicate Ukrainian origin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and losing, from the "Hostri Kartuzy" unit. RBK-Ukraina reports 230,000 Russian occupiers neutralized by UAF in six months, citing Syrsky. The accompanying video shows drone footage of engagements, targeting and destruction of personnel and equipment, with Ukrainian text overlays indicating locations like 's. Hrodovika' and 's. Ivanivka'. Colonelcassad provides multiple drone videos including damaged residential buildings, shelling impacts, and a BM-21 Grad firing salvo. RUF sources claim "🅾️tvazhnyye" group was ambushed by a "waiting killer." Сливочный каприз posts a tactical map for the Novokselivske direction, indicating ongoing combat engagements. НгП раZVедка posts aerial video of a settlement under bombardment, with large explosions. Colonelcassad posts an "author's weekly column" with medical information about epidural and subdural hematomas, pupil dilation, speech and motor impairment, with photo messages of brain diagrams. This is a RUF source sharing medical information, possibly for combat medics or to highlight the severity of injuries sustained. "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Siversk-Hryhorivka direction, indicating ongoing combat engagements. Operatsiya Z claims that Russian forces have stormed Kamenskoye, stating they crossed the bottom of the Kakhovka reservoir and attacked the enemy from the flank, implying a significant tactical maneuver. The accompanying image suggests a combat zone, potentially showing a military advance or engagement. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "Southern" group intelligence FPV drone destroyed an enemy ground robotic complex attempting to evacuate a severely wounded UAF soldier in the Siversk direction, and that the evacuation failed. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a HIMARS strike in Makiivka, which occurred two years ago, confirming the demilitarization of 75 Grad MLRS salvos. Операция Z posts an intercepted Ukrainian communication discussing potential operational encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad due to lack of infantry. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational update as of 22:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RBK-Ukraina corroborates this General Staff update. Colonelcassad posts new FPV drone footage from Donbas, showing military vehicles and engagements, identified as "Donbas. Rubikon is working." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. This refers to the Kharkiv axis, not Donetsk, but is a relevant update to force dispositions. New Update: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position by "Viking" operators. Colonelcassad posts new "Ночные прилёты полуторок!!!" videos and aerial surveillance footage (03:03:02Z, 03:03:03Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a photo message, claiming that an additional 1050 occupiers "have appreciated the hospitality of sincere Ukrainians," referring to estimated enemy combat losses. This message includes an infographic similar to the General Staff of UAF's daily loss reports. RBK-Ukraina corroborates Operatyvnyi ZSU's report of 1050 enemy combat losses, citing the General Staff. This indicates continued high attrition of RUF forces in the Donbas direction. New message: Colonelcassad posts compilation of FPV drone strikes by various units in the Karla Marksa and Voskresenka area. New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". Other General Staff photo messages are similar. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. This confirms continued RUF FPV drone use against UAF artillery. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos with the caption "Воїни 72 ОМБр імені Чорних Запорожців доводить свій професіоналізм на полі бою, з 2014 року захищаючи Україну." These photos show combat operations and damage. This highlights UAF active engagement and capabilities. New message: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України posts a video with the caption "Знайшли, влучили, знищили!" The video shows FPV drone footage, confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike on enemy positions or equipment. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two videos (07:14:01Z, 07:14:01Z) and text (07:14:02Z) captioned "NATO weapons against AFU" and showing drone footage of a grassy area, with a puff of smoke at 00:43, possibly a strike. New message: ТАСС video claims RUF FPV drone units "Rubikon" struck UAF ground robotic complexes (07:21:01Z, 07:21:02Z). New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "Freedom of Russia" Legion captured a Nigerian former student and ex-convict serving in RUF's 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:19Z, 07:20:19Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:19Z). New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kostyantynivka, Andriyivka-Klevtsove of Donetsk region. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Donetsk. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Nadiya, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Dibrova and towards Hryhorivka in Lyman direction. New message: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports map updated (07:21:18Z). New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of a soldier handling ammunition in a tactical environment (07:15:59Z, 07:16:00Z). New message: Colonelcassad posts video of RUF FPV drone striking a 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. New message: "Воин DV" posts video and text from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade, claiming support for "Vostok" grouping stormtroopers near Malinovka, showing village under fire with explosions. Colonelcassad posts the same video and text, confirming RUF artillery support for ground assaults. New message: Colonelcassad reports RUF forces destroyed two Patriot launchers and two AN/MPQ-65 radar stations. FACT: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis, with 27 attacks, 14 ongoing. Intense combat for Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with continuous platoon-sized VDV assaults. RUF claims destruction of UAF deployment points and mortar positions, and a ground drone and equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims clearing a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno. UAF reports 4 wounded in western Donetsk due to RUF strike, and destruction of an educational facility in Kramatorsk with 2 injuries. UAF reported 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF HIMARS strike, with damage to Petrovka and Trudovskoy village. RUF claims destruction of command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. RUF reports advances in Chasiv Yar (Kanal microdistrict, Levanevskogo) and Pokrovsk (Yablonovka). RUF is using tactical aviation for airstrikes and KAB launches in Donetsk Oblast (Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka). RUF claims powerful strikes on Kramatorsk. RUF claims FABing in Piddubne area. RUF claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operations in Karla Marksa. RUF claims "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. RUF claims forces are ~3km from Konstantinovka. RUF videos show FPV drone hits on UAF equipment, including a MaxxPro MRAP, and a potential engagement with a ground vehicle (tank/APC). RUF claims use of Msta-S artillery system in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF confirms hitting command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. RUF claims Kamenskoye stormed. RUF claims destruction of a UAF ground robotic complex attempting medical evacuation in Siversk direction. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes in Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. New message confirms KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position. Colonelcassad posts new videos of nighttime impacts and aerial footage of settlements, likely confirming ongoing strikes and reconnaissance. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU and RBK-Ukraina report 1050 RUF combat losses in the last 24 hours. New message: Colonelcassad posts FPV drone strike compilation in Karla Marksa and Voskresenka areas. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos of combat operations by the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, showing professional engagement. New message: 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts FPV drone footage confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts videos showing drone surveying a grassy/wooded area with a puff of smoke at 00:43, implying a strike. New message: ТАСС video claims RUF FPV drone units "Rubikon" struck UAF ground robotic complexes. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "Freedom of Russia" Legion captured a Nigerian former student and ex-convict serving in RUF's 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 2x airstrikes in Kostyantynivka and Andriyivka-Klevtsove. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Novopavlivka. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes in Lyman direction near Nadiya, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Dibrova and towards Hryhorivka. New message: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports map updated. New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of a soldier handling ammunition in a tactical environment. New message: Colonelcassad posts video of RUF FPV drone striking a 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. New message: "Воин DV" and Colonelcassad confirm 305th Guards Artillery Brigade supporting "Vostok" grouping stormtroopers near Malinovka, with visual evidence of shelled village. New message: Colonelcassad claims RUF destroyed two Patriot launchers and two AN/MPQ-65 radar stations (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF Claim). Confidence: HIGH.

  • Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." WarGonzo map for Sumy direction shows enemy advances near Ryzhivka, confirming continued pressure. Rybar (RUF source) provides animated map, claiming counter-battery fire and tactical advances in Sumy direction, specifically around Andriivka, Kondratovka, and Yuganovka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novomutyn of Sumy region. UAF repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction yesterday. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo with the caption "04.07.25 Сумы - Новониколаевка", implying active engagement in the area. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts drone video of an artillery strike in the Sumy direction, near Andriivka. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on northern Sumy Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, warning Myhorod. RBK-Ukraina confirms UAF Air Force report of high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, warning Myhorod to take cover. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo message "03.07.25 Сумы - Алексеевка", implying active engagement in the area and RUF control. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. TASS reports two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Moskalkova hopes Kyiv will fulfill its promise regarding the return of residents of Kursk border areas displaced to Sumy Oblast. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports on the prisoner exchange, stating two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast, and 30 Russian citizens remain in Ukraine. ASTRA confirms two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast. TASS posts video featuring Moskalkova discussing the prisoner exchange and human rights, referencing a Geneva convention. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV on Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged for interception (03:23:55Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, heading west, and then confirms the target stopped being fixed north of Khotin. This indicates a potential engagement or target evasion. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "Сумское направление." This indicates continued RUF focus on this area. New message: ТАСС reports that the Russian MoD says "Geranium-2" drones struck Ukrainian UAV production facilities in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and posts a video as evidence. This is a RUF claim of a successful deep strike on a military-industrial target. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Seredyna-Buda of Sumy region. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the center and east of Sumy Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи на Сумщину! This confirms continued KAB usage. FACT: RUF probing attacks and KAB usage confirmed. RUF sources claim advances near Ryzhivka and other border settlements. 1x airstrike confirmed in Novomutyn. UAF repelled 16 assaults. RUF reports active engagement in Novomykolaivka and Alekseevka, Sumy region. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Sumy Oblast. New KAB launches reported. Artillery strike confirmed in Andriivka area. Renewed RUF UAV activity in northern Sumy Oblast and generally in the oblast. UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina confirm high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, course southwest, warning Myhorod. UAF Air Force confirms renewed KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast engaged. Two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange, as reported by TASS, Moskalkova, Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, and ASTRA. New TASS video shows Moskalkova discussing the return of Kursk Oblast residents. New UAV activity confirmed in Sumy Oblast. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. RUF PVO claimed destruction of 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, indicating ongoing UAF deep strikes against Russian border regions. New UAF Air Force alert confirms enemy UAV on Sumy Oblast with AD assets engaged. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, heading west, that is no longer being fixed north of Khotin. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message "Сумское направление," confirming continued RUF focus. New message: TASS reports RUF struck UAF UAV production facilities in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, with "Geranium-2" drones, with video evidence. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 1x airstrike in Seredyna-Buda. New message: UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the center and east of Sumy Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports KABs on Sumy Oblast! Confidence: HIGH.

  • Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. UAF Air Force reports "Kharkiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs" at 0523Z. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs over eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west, at 0532Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Ambarne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka in Kupyansk direction. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv RMA, provides video and photo updates on the aftermath of strikes, consistent with previous reports of damages and ongoing emergency response. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Colonelcassad reports 5 enemy UAVs destroyed by FPV drones "VT-40" in Kharkiv direction. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo of engagement in Kupyansk - Peschanoye direction. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims "Chernika" loitering munitions were used for the first time against targets in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos with the caption "Наші люди вдома. Більшість із них перебувала в російському полоні ще з 2022 року," related to a prisoner exchange. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Kharkiv Oblast. OTU "Kharkiv" posts photos with the same caption about "Our people are home." Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z posts photo message claiming RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka, creating another Kharkiv bridgehead. "Зона СВО" posts video claiming destruction of fortified enemy positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState posts map showing the situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) posts a video claiming destruction of UAF equipment in Kupiansk by "Groza" system. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message captioned "Харьковское направление," which does not include additional text, indicating continued RUF focus on this area. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video featuring Ukrainian soldiers undergoing training, including firearms, anti-tank grenade launcher use, and discussion of combat stress, emphasizing combat readiness. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos regarding a high-level dialogue on democratic governance in Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video titled "Today, on the occasion of the Day of the National Police of Ukraine, I presented state awards to our police officers." This is a public event focused on morale and recognition, not immediate battlefield geometry. The content is similar to one posted by Zelenskiy/Official and does not provide new information on force dispositions or battlefield geometry. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z posts video of a MaxxPro MRAP hit in the 36th Army's area of responsibility. Операция Z (Русской Весны) posts a map claiming "Армия России наступает в Харьковская области, продвигаясь на ряде участков," implying ground advances. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Oleg Syniehubov reports a Shahed drone impact in Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates Shahed impact in Chuhuiv. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims a large fire in Chuhuiv after a "Geranium" strike, with accompanying photos. Oleg Syniehubov reports that the number of injured due to the enemy strike on Chuhuiv has increased to three. RBK-Ukraina corroborates the increase in casualties in Chuhuiv to three. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a truck fire in Lipetsk Oblast, captioned as having destroyed 6 military vehicles, including an "Akhmat" and 5 "UAZiks." Военкор Котенок posts photo message claiming "В Чугуеве (Харьковская область) мощное зарево после работы "Гераней" по целям в городе." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. New Update: ASTRA reports 5 injured in Kharkiv Oblast from evening attacks, citing local authorities. New message: TASS reports Marochko claims RUF forces are blockading all UAF logistics in Kupiansk and encircling the city. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. New message: TASS reports that UAF are asking their command to prepare for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast after RUF liberated Melove (03:26:26Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: Операция Z reports that Russian forces have taken Melove in Kharkiv Oblast to expand their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, citing DS (DeepState). New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". New message: Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. This is an updated number from the previously reported 9 settlements. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 injured, including 2 children, from a massed UAV strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. This is a significant increase from previous reports. New message: РБК-Україна posts an "Immediate Assessment" including a logo for "ДСНС Харківщини" (State Emergency Service of Ukraine for Kharkiv region). This confirms the involvement of emergency services in BDA and response operations. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts multiple photos with the caption "В Чугуєві досі ліквідовують пожежу на одному з обʼєктів міста, яка сталася після влучання російських дронів." These photos show firefighters engaged in suppressing a large blaze at a damaged building, confirming significant post-strike fire and emergency response efforts. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Zelene, Kamyanka and towards Kutkivka in South Slobozhansky direction. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Holubivka, Zahryzove and Zelenyy Hay in Kupyansk direction. New message: Colonelcassad reports a map showing a fire in Chuhuiv at a local oil depot after drone attacks (07:17:01Z, 07:17:01Z, 07:17:01Z, 07:17:02Z, 07:17:02Z). New message: Colonelcassad posts video of the oil depot in Chuhuiv after "Geranium" strike on July 5, 2025, showing smoke (07:27:01Z, 07:27:01Z, 07:27:02Z). New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Kharkiv Oblast. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of an artistic depiction of a fire at night, implying a strike on an ammunition depot in Chuhuiv. New message: Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming destruction of a fortified firing point in Kharkiv direction by "Akhmat" special forces. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a large plume of smoke and fire in Chuhuiv, confirming a direct hit on a fuel depot after evening-night strikes. FACT: KAB usage confirmed. RUF claim of striking Oskil river crossings. Renewed UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. 6 settlements struck. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Clashes reported near Vovchansk and Ambarne. Renewed UAV threat in Northern/Eastern Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims destruction of 5 UAF FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims engagement near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - no UAF confirmation). UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov's posts confirm a prisoner exchange involving Kharkiv Oblast personnel. Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z claims RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - no UAF confirmation). "Зона СВО" video claims destruction of fortified UAF positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState map shows situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports continued UAV threat. Операция Z video claims destruction of UAF equipment near Kupiansk. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia's video on EW activity further confirms RUF's focus on countering UAF drones and protecting their ground movements in conflict areas, possibly the Kharkiv axis. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message indicates continued RUF attention on the Kharkiv direction. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 video indicates UAF is actively engaged in maintaining high levels of combat readiness for ground forces in the Kharkiv area. Oleg Syniehubov's photos are civilian content showing a political/diplomatic meeting. Colonelcassad's new video confirms FPV drone success against UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV and a towed howitzer, in the Kharkiv direction, a tactical success for RUF. Oleg Syniehubov's video is a formal ceremony, not battlefield information. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. New RUF video shows a MaxxPro MRAP hit. New RUF map claims ground advances in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Shahed drone impact confirmed in Chuhuiv, with reports of a large fire and now 3 casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a truck fire destroying 6 RUF military vehicles in Lipetsk Oblast, implying a successful deep strike. New photo message from Voenkor Kotenok confirms large fire in Chuhuiv after "Geranium" attack. Colonelcassad's new video details combat work of 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction (Kharkiv), providing visual confirmation of ground engagement. 5 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to evening attacks. New message: TASS reports Marochko claims RUF forces are blockading all UAF logistics in Kupiansk and encircling the city. UAF Air Force confirms enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports UAF is requesting command to prepare for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast following RUF liberation of Melove. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: Operatsiya Z reports Russian forces have taken Melove in Kharkiv Oblast to expand their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 injured, including 2 children, from a massed UAV strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. New message: RBK-Ukraina's "Immediate Assessment" and the "ДСНС Харківщини" logo confirms emergency services are active in Kharkiv, responding to damage. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos confirm ongoing large fire and emergency response in Chuhuiv after drone strikes. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 1x airstrike in Vilkhuvatka. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Zelene, Kamyanka and towards Kutkivka. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Holubivka, Zahryzove and Zelenyy Hay. New message: Colonelcassad reports fires at a local oil depot in Chuhuiv after drone attacks. New message: Colonelcassad posts video of the oil depot in Chuhuiv after "Geranium" strike showing smoke. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Kharkiv Oblast. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of an artistic depiction of a fire at night, implying a strike on an ammunition depot in Chuhuiv. New message: Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming destruction of a fortified firing point in Kharkiv direction by "Akhmat" special forces. New message: Voenkor Kotenok confirms a significant fire at a fuel depot in Chuhuiv after evening/night strikes. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage, airstrikes, clashes, UAV threat, UAF equipment losses, casualties), MEDIUM (Melove/Stroevka liberation claim, Oskil strikes, "Chernika" claim, Kupiansk encirclement claim, Velykyi Burluk defense preparation - no UAF confirmation).

  • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 04.07.25. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (mopeds). Oleksandr Vilkul reports an explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of explosions in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. RUF claims new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih with "Geraniums" without AD opposition. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms UAV hit Kryvyi Rih causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 6 men injured in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video and claims it's the first time a glide bomb hit Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. RBK-Ukraina reports full restoration of high-speed tram movement in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул posts multiple photo messages indicating a formal ceremony, likely awards or recognition within a domestic setting. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" raids in Kryvyi Rih during the day, in addition to massed night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (1 severe, 3 moderate, 3 light), previously 7. RBK-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih for the second time in a day, confirming photos of damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "🪂 На Днепропетровском направлении наши войска зашли в Воскресенку." This is a RUF claim of ground advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region. FACT: Situation reported as controlled. Renewed UAV threat, explosion, fire, and repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack and KABs. RUF claims targets hit without AD opposition and power outages, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties confirmed by Vilkul and ASTRA, including two rescuers. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, now fully restored, impacting urban transport. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. Trolleybus movement fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 use. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing a formal ceremony. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. New strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih confirmed, with preliminary 2 injured (now updated to 3 injured). RUF confirms "Geranium" attacks on Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Oleksandr Vilkul, RBK-Ukraina, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 all confirm new impacts and casualties in Kryvyi Rih, with large smoke plumes. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (1 severe, 3 moderate, 3 light), indicating increased civilian casualties and humanitarian impact. RBK-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. New video confirms Shahed hit in Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA confirms second RUF attack on Kryvyi Rih today with multiple photos showing damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 1x airstrike in Kryvyy Rih. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces have entered Voskresenka in Dnipropetrovsk direction. JUDGMENT: Increased casualties to 8 wounded indicates sustained and effective RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. The video confirming Shahed hit further corroborates the attack. The continued use of FAB with UMPK indicates RUF's increasing precision strike capabilities against urban centers. ASTRA and Serhiy Lysak's reports confirm a second attack today and the increased casualty count. The latest report from Vilkul indicates a temporary stabilization of the situation in Kryvyi Rih. RUF claim of entering Voskresenka is a potential localized ground advance. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Kherson Oblast: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Mykolaiv, then further towards Voznesensk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast, northern course. STERNENKO also reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea. RBK-Ukraina reports explosion in Voznesensk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts video from Kinburn Spit with burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos showing damage in Kherson Oblast from "enemy attacks." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming "Бойова підготовка калєч-полків триває повним ходом, готуються до форсування Дніпра за будь-яку ціну" (Battle training of "crippled regiments" is in full swing, preparing to cross the Dnipro at any cost) in temporarily occupied Southern Ukraine, indicating RUF intent. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports GUR destroyed three UAV operators from Dmitry Rogozin's unit in Kherson Oblast today. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror in Kherson region with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling and damage in Kherson. Два майора video shows Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, implying ongoing riverine operations. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. Colonelcassad posts two videos showing Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Kherson Oblast. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video showing UAF successfully evacuating two wounded soldiers via ground drone, despite a RUF FPV drone attack. New message: ASTRA reports two casualties in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours, and 33,000 residents are without power due to a UAF attack on a substation. This confirms infrastructure damage and civilian impact. FACT: UAF repelled 3 assaults. 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykolaivka. Ballistic missile threat towards Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, with explosion in Voznesensk. Video from Kinburn Spit shows burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kherson. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos of moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video suggests RUF forces are training for a Dnipro crossing operation. GUR claims destruction of 3x RUF UAV operators in Kherson Oblast. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kherson. New video shows RUF demining operations on the Dnipro River. Massed Shahed drone approach over Kinburn Spit indicates renewed deep strike threat to Mykolaiv Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms many Shaheds towards Odesa. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 1x airstrike in Odradokamyanka. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos of casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Kherson Oblast. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video confirms successful UAF medical evacuation using ground drones under enemy fire. New message: ASTRA reports 2 casualties and 33,000 residents without power in occupied Kherson due to UAF strike on a substation. JUDGMENT: RUF maintains limited offensive pressure and air activity in Kherson direction. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Mykolaiv and Voznesensk indicate an expansion of RUF deep strike targets and continued threat to southern Ukraine. The Kinburn Spit video suggests continued military activity and potential for environmental impact in the region. UAF continues to document damage. The moldy bread in Kakhovka suggests logistical/food supply issues in RUF-occupied territories, potentially impacting civilian morale and stability. RUF training for a Dnipro crossing is a significant indicator of offensive intent in the southern direction. GUR claim of UAV operator destruction is a tactical success for UAF. Continued shelling highlights ongoing threat to civilians. RUF demining operations suggest active preparations for ground movement or riverine control. Massed Shahed drone approach over Kinburn Spit indicates renewed deep strike threat to Mykolaiv Oblast and Odesa. UAF successful MEDEVAC highlights adaptation to enemy drone threat. New reports confirm UAF strikes on power infrastructure in occupied Kherson, leading to widespread outages, consistent with UAF efforts to degrade RUF logistical control. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Russian Territory:

    • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok due to mourning for Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov further confirms his death. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the death of Andrey Badalov, Vice President of Transneft. ASTRA confirms Badalov fell from a window, death by suicide/accident. TASS confirms the death of Transneft VP Andrey Badalov in Moscow. TASS reports a woman who blew up Pilavov died at the explosion site. Kotsnews confirms cancellation of Vladivostok festival due to Gudkov's death.
    • Internal Security: TASS reports Rosfinmonitoring added a minor (born 2011) to its list of extremists and terrorists. TASS also reports Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan and their families are still unaware of the accusations, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction. TASS reports Akunin case to be considered July 14, further emphasizing internal repression. Colonelcassad reports on drone attacks against Izhevsk. TASS reports air space restrictions in Izhevsk airport at 0529Z. ASTRA confirms Izhevsk airport closure at 0536Z. Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports a new federal law on criminal liability for "dropperism" (money laundering for fraudsters) comes into force July 5th, indicating ongoing internal security/financial crime concerns. VTB bank reports a new fraud scheme targeting pensioners. TASS video shows the damaged vehicle of Zakhar Prilepin, highlighting internal security concerns related to assassination attempts. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (RUF source) posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discussing Ukrainian special services recruiting Russian population. Sever.Realii reports St. Petersburg dam closed, expecting first flood in 160 years. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police will conduct raids on scooter and bicycle riders over the weekend. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RUF source) reports two "AFU militants" imprisoned for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video showing Military Police operations at a checkpoint in Kursk region. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees in Naberezhnye Chelny forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat. TASS reports Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares due to central bank order. TASS reports Romania will not send troops to Ukraine. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about implementation of law protecting Russian language. Военкор Котенок also suggests importing Cuban medics to address medical staff shortages. Kadyrov_95 posts video of a meeting discussing socio-economic situation in Chechen Republic, aimed at projecting stability and governance. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warning for threats in house chats (up to 5 years). TASS reports former Deputy Head of Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations Pavel Baryshev sentenced to 3 years for large-scale fraud. ASTRA reports journalist Alla Konstantinova declared wanted. Новости Москвы reports a massive MTS communications failure. TASS reports criminal cases against top managers of Svetlinsky mine "Yuzhuralzoloto". TASS reports Armenian appeals court kept Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan under arrest. Alex Parker Returns posts information about a removed Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head in Moscow Oblast, stripped of citizenship and deported. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports "yellow level" UAV threat on Lipetsk region. Zvizdeц Мангусту posts a reminder of an ongoing situation for those interested. Новости Москвы reports a child injured at Sheremetyevo is recovering. TASS reports Russian Duma proposes remote sick leave for SVO soldiers, indicating adaptation to address military welfare. ASTRA reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for graffiti on a Victory Day banner. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a military man beat a colleague to death during "Veterans Day" celebration. Alex Parker Returns posts photo with caption "Everything is bad. Around treason, cowardice and deceit." Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition notes 5 years to Constitutional amendments, emphasizing a key internal political event. Janus Putkonen reports "Wise Russian introspection" from Valdai Club. Kadyrov_95 posts video of meeting discussing Chechen participation in SVO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Операция Z (Русской Весны) amplify NBC News report about US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies to Ukraine. Новости Москвы posts photo of "Festival of Whining" at GES-2. Военкор Котенок claims US command admitted death of 51 servicemen at Fort Bragg in 2023. ASTRA video confirms Azerbaijani diaspora head in Moscow Oblast was stripped of Russian citizenship and deported to Azerbaijan. WarGonzo discusses why Aliyev needs to quarrel with Moscow and its connection to Karabakh, implying geopolitical context for the deportation. TASS reports IL-76MD with eighth group of Russian servicemen returned in prisoner exchange landed in Moscow Oblast. Colonelcassad confirms IL-76MD landing in Moscow Oblast. Kotsnews reports Azerbaijani diaspora head in Moscow Oblast stripped of citizenship. TASS reports Twitch may leave Russian market voluntarily, implying internal tech control measures. Глеб Никитин (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Governor) reports mobile communication and internet disruptions due to reduced signal levels of cell towers in response to UAV threats, as an additional measure to protect industrial and strategic objects. TASS reports Telegram and WhatsApp users in Russia complain about outages, including audio/video calls. Новости Москвы reports Telegram outages. TASS reports the Russian Prosecutor General's Office (ГП) is demanding that the "International Satanism Movement" be recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation, with a court hearing scheduled for July 22. Два майора posts a video of two men in an office reviewing documents, captioned "The process has started (?)." Kotsnews posts video "Тихановский просит денег", which is civilian content. Mash на Donbasse posts video "Восемь собак и их агрессивная владелица держат в страх весь подъезд на Спортивной в Донецке," which is civilian content. Colonelcassad posts multiple photos on an exhibition "Герои операции "Поток" in Lugansk, which is civilian propaganda. TASS reports the State Duma proposes a ban on the sale of soda and chips in schools. TASS reports that a rally has begun in Yerevan calling for the release of businessman Karapetyan. Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages containing xenophobic graffiti and text directed at Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. Alex Parker Returns posts photos of "famous pipe" in Luhansk where "suicide bomber killed former mayor." Военкор Котенок posts photo message "В Нальчике нападение ваххабитов на патруль ДПС. Боевики были вооружены ножами," confirming an attack in Russia. Alex Parker Returns posts video "Страх и ненависть в Нальчике. Два ваххабита напали на сотрудников полиции. В результате один из полицейских получил ножевое ранение, а другой ваххабит был застрелен встречным огнем. Другому удалось скрыться. Ужас что!" and a photo confirming the attack. TASS reports "Сотрудник полиции ранен при нападении на наряд ДПС в Нальчике," and "Напавшие на наряд ДПС в Нальчике использовали холодное оружие," and "Пострадавший при нападении на наряд ДПС в Нальчике находится в тяжелом состоянии," and "Кадры с места нападения на наряд ДПС в Нальчике," further confirming details of the attack. ASTRA posts video "В Кабардино-Балкарии неизвестные напали на сотрудников ДПС, прозвучала стрельба" and "Задержание человека после нападения на полицейских в Нальчике," confirming shooting and detention. Операция Z posts video "Боевики с ножами напали на сотрудников ДПС в Нальчике," confirming the attack. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message about Chechen economic dependence on Russia, highlighting internal financial issues. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports a child was stabbed in Sergiev Posad and is in moderately severe condition. TASS reports one of the attackers on the Nalchik DPS patrol was detained. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows video of firefighters battling a large industrial fire, with barrels, fire-fighting equipment, and personnel, confirming an industrial zone fire in Shebekino, Belgorod. ASTRA removes "dove of peace" from new history textbooks, indicating changes in RUF propaganda. TASS video shows police vehicles at an intersection in Nalchik, indicating the scene of the incident. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video shows a high-level meeting on implementing new medical technologies in RUF troops. MoD Russia video also shows a high-level meeting on implementing advanced medical technologies in the military sphere and reports on the effectiveness of medical groups since the start of the SVO. Alex Parker Returns posts a tweet discussing Russian migrants in Argentina, indicating internal social/economic concerns. ASTRA video shows a street scene with construction work, and what appears to be the moment of attack on police in Nalchik. Colonelcassad provides multiple videos and context on the Nalchik attack, including police vehicles and an altercation. Alex Parker Returns video of an injured individual in military fatigues, captioned "Dobeyte vyzhyvshikh. Tak govoril Zhelezny Dimon," implying a call to kill survivors or a grim aftermath. TASS reports a suspect was detained in the stabbing of a 9-year-old boy in Sergiev Posad. TASS reports a criminal case was initiated in Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR) following the attack on police officers. Два майора posts a video showing two individuals in camouflage uniforms in a wooded area, with a makeshift campfire and supplies, captioned "Связисты Тимсо - жесткие люди." This implies RUF field activity. Alex Parker Returns video with the caption "Обратите внимание на зубы." This is a video of an individual speaking in Russian, with subtitles in Ukrainian. It appears to be a man speaking from a military perspective, potentially a RUF soldier. It appears to be RUF propaganda highlighting physical features. Colonelcassad mentions Iran's Civil Defense Organization head claiming WhatsApp played a role in pinpointing Hamas commanders. TASS reports Meloni states US did not stop arms supply to Ukraine, but revised decisions on separate components. TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport restrictions on aircraft reception/departure. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports "red level" UAV threat on Lipetsk region. TASS reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in three hours by MoD. AV БогомаZ confirms continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of an individual on the ground next to a car, captioned "Nalchik. Finish off the survivor. Let good happen!" with additional text about the Nanlchik attack showing the individual possibly injured. "Зона СВО" posts a meme video about a UAV operator correcting a group. TASS reports on a new law on criminal liability for "dropperism" (money laundering for fraudsters) coming into force on July 5th. Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "Midnight in Moscow!", suggesting normal civilian activity. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of a man speaking into a microphone, with a caption implying Belarusians are "stingy" in their donations for something. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video and photo messages of a truck fire in Lipetsk Oblast, claiming 6 military vehicles were destroyed. Alex Parker Returns posts a video featuring a man discussing Ukraine's mobilization potential for "10 more years of war." TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast, with no casualties. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, with no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. Alex Parker Returns posts video about two Romani individuals detained in Rostov for impersonating Chechens and extorting money. Alex Parker Returns also posts a video of a man apologizing to Russian citizens and soldiers, implying a confession related to military service. TASS reports 7 vehicles caught fire on the M-4 Don highway after a collision, with one injured. TASS reports St. Petersburg airport restrictions lifted. RBK-Ukraina reports Russians complaining about drone attack and explosions in Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast). ASTRA also reports Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast) under drone attack. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Saratov airport. New Update: Colonelcassad posts videos of captured military ordnance and equipment, identified as NATO equipment. Операция Z posts photos of the Cossack reconnaissance brigade "Terek" receiving a banner from the President with "With God." Полиция Хабаровского края posts photos of civilian personnel, not relevant. Further Update: TASS reports the head of "Voentorg" Vladimir Pavlov had his arrest extended on fraud charges. TASS reports a UAV attack on Cheboksary. RBK-Ukraina video confirms unknown drones attacking Cheboksary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh and Chuvashia. New messages: Colonelcassad posts videos of captured military ordnance and equipment identified as NATO equipment. Colonelcassad posts interview of a 71-year-old woman from Sudzha, Kursk region, alleging looting and destruction by Ukrainian forces. RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. TASS reports Ulyanovsk airport has restrictions on aircraft reception and departure. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA reports UAV attack on a military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, no casualties or damage. TASS reports court arrested 315 million rubles and shares in "Rusagro" from Vadim Moshkovich in fraud case. TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. Операция Z posts photos/text claiming increasing tension between Turkey and Israel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). TASS posts photo message claiming Trump contributes to Russian victory by stopping arms supplies to Kyiv, citing The Spectator. ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. RBK-Ukraina posts new report from UAF Navy (03:12:13Z, 03:12:14Z). ASTRA posts multiple photo messages and statements related to a fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast, citing NASA FIRMS (03:04:40Z, 03:04:41Z). RBK-Ukraina posts similar reports about the BorisoGlebsk fire (03:18:52Z, 03:18:53Z). OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a video and photo messages of a drone, with assessment (03:23:14Z, 03:23:15Z, 03:23:16Z). New message: TASS reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility, citing the Ministry of Defense, and includes a video showcasing Ka-52 helicopters in flight and live fire. New message: TASS reports that Trump believes the situation around Ukraine is very difficult. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: TASS reports that Macron's call to Putin is an acknowledgment that world politics needs Russia. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA has pulled all inspectors from Iran for the first time in 20 years. New message: TASS reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that over 94 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions during the night. This is a significant increase in claimed interceptions. New message: ASTRA reports that the governor of Voronezh Oblast confirmed more than 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of the oblast last night. This indicates a concentrated UAF deep strike. New message: Fighterbomber posts a video from a helicopter cockpit, showing what appears to be a reconnaissance or attack mission over rural terrain. This indicates continued RUF tactical aviation operations. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian PVO forces destroyed 94 enemy UAVs overnight. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. New message: ТАСС reports Trump does not rule out that the US will continue to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, including Patriot systems. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: RBK-Ukraina posts video of Trump commenting on his conversation with Putin regarding new sanctions against Russia. New message: Два майора posts a video with the caption "Сразу в десятке городов страны прошли проверочные мероприятия в отношении неонацистского подполья, которое украинские спецслужбы используют для диверсий и терактов в России." The video shows law enforcement/special forces conducting operations in urban environments, including preparing to breach a door and individuals being detained. This indicates RUF internal security efforts against alleged Ukrainian-backed "neo-Nazi underground." New message: Басурин о главном posts two photo messages discussing the impact of climate change on world agriculture. This is unrelated to military operations but shows a RUF channel engaging in general informational topics. New message: Рыбарь posts two photo messages with the caption "Звезда Давида на рукаве?" and a blurred image. This is likely an attempt at disinformation or propaganda aimed at linking a specific symbol to alleged undesirable groups, possibly for internal or external messaging. New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two photo messages with the caption "Патч «Волчонок 45» — данный патч не просто элемент формы, а настоящий символ мужества и боевого братства." The images show a military-style patch with a wolf design and text, serving as propaganda for a RUF unit, possibly the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. New message: ТАСС reports Volodin's statement on consequences for those aiding fraudsters (07:16:09Z, 07:16:10Z). New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace (07:28:15Z). New message: ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo airport is temporarily operating only for aircraft reception, with departures halted. New message: Новости Москвы posts a photo of a rare lightning event captured by an astronaut, which is civilian content. New message: РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting Trump's statement on the US considering transferring Patriot missiles to Ukraine. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of an artistic depiction of a fire at night, implying a strike on an ammunition depot in Chuhuiv. New message: Kotsnews reports the Investigative Committee established that the order to shoot down the Il-76 with Ukrainian prisoners of war over Belgorod Oblast was given by the commander of the Ukrainian brigade, Mykola Dzyaman. New message: Военкор Котенок posts photo of Mykola Dzyaman, commander of the 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the UAF. This photo is likely linked to the Il-76 incident. New message: ТАСС reports a new briefing from the Ministry of Defense. New message: Стрелков Игорь Иванович posts a civilian message about prison conditions, not militarily relevant. New message: ТАСС reports the revival of the sobering-up system in Russia would reduce the burden on medical institutions and enhance street safety. This is a domestic social issue, not directly military. New message: Два майора posts photos about popular aid not reaching the front lines, but rather headquarters/training/gatherings. This indicates internal RUF grievances regarding resource allocation. FACT: UAF deep strikes confirmed against Rostov, Moscow, Lipetsk, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Belgorod, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Oryol, Kaluga, Chuvashia, and Leningrad regions, causing damage, casualties (2 in Moscow Oblast, 1 in Rostov Oblast, 33 injured in Izhevsk with 5 serious, 4 deceased in Petrovsky district of Donetsk, 7 injured in Belgorod Oblast, 2 injured in Shebekino, 9-year-old child stabbed in Sergiev Posad, 5 injured in Kharkiv Oblast), and infrastructure disruption (substation, widespread power outages affecting 6,000+ people, airport restrictions, residential damage, fire in Sergiev Posad, damage in Azov, attack on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, transformer substation in Shakhty, chemical enterprise fire in Shebekino). At least 10 UAVs fell on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant. RUF MoD claims PVO forces shot down 48 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions during the night, and 6 more between 08:00 and 11:00 MSK, and 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol between 13:00 and 16:00 MSK. RUF MoD claims 16 more UAVs destroyed over Bryansk, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Oryol Oblasts between 16:00 and 18:00 MSK. AV Bogomaz reports 7 additional UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast and 11 more over Bryansk Oblast and 3 more recently. RUF sources also claim 539 drones were launched against Ukraine, with 478/550 targets neutralized by UAF AD. RUF also claims 1 Kinzhal, 6 Iskander-M ballistic, and 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles were launched against Ukraine. Power partially restored in Sergiev Posad, now fully restored. UAF drone shot down in Udmurtia. RUF is actively developing counter-drone measures, including a "Sarmat-Mgla" robotic infantry complex with EW capabilities (RUF source "Два майора" video) and FPV drones specifically targeting UAF EW stations (Colonelcassad video claims "Anklav" type R-E-B station destroyed). "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video of a "barraging munition" (likely Lancet) hitting or narrowly missing a UAF tank near Piddubne, claiming it stopped. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of explosions and IED-like devices in Rostov Oblast, and a drone video (UAF ISR). UAF posts video of destroyed Russian military equipment. RUF sources report 2 UAVs shot down over Udmurtia. UAF drone activity near Zhytomyr (unconfirmed specific target). RUF claims UAF UAVs flew over Sergiev Posad. RUF claims strikes on UAV production facilities in Konotop. Perm region and Perm airport are under drone threat/restrictions. Ballistic missile threat from the East reported, then lifted, then re-reported by UAF Air Force, then lifted again. Perm airport restrictions lifted. RUF MoD confirmed strikes on military facilities, airfield, and oil refinery in Kyiv. UAF source claims strike on Zagorsk substation powering a chemical institute in Sergiev Posad. New footage of Sergiev Posad drone attack. Strong impact in Azov. A prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine has occurred, with Russian military personnel returned to Russia via Belarus. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) posts video of Russian fighters deploying to the SVO zone, with patriotic messaging. Two Majors posts photo message about "insiders" and "terrorism." RBK-Ukraina reports Chinese consulate damaged in Odesa. TASS confirms damaged residential and social objects in Rostov Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports new UAV threat in Yelets/Yelets district and a new air danger regime for all of Lipetsk Oblast, and a specific UAV threat for Lebedyan and Lebedyansky district. MoD Russia posts POW exchange video. TASS posts video of damage in Western Donetsk, corroborated by ASTRA fatality report. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports 7 injured in Belgorod. WarGonzo and Voenkor Kotenok corroborate 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Fighterbomber claims RUF UAVs (Poseidons) can turn off transponders. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of returned Russian POWs. ASTRA reports 12 drones shot down over Bryansk and Oryol. Igor Artamonov reports "red level" UAV threat in Lipetsk has been lifted. TASS posts video of "LazerBuzz" destroying an FPV drone. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume (potentially Sergiev Posad). Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" UAV threat for Lipetsk Oblast has been lifted. STERNENKO video confirms a large industrial fire in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. RBK-Ukraina photos and videos confirm chemical plant fire near Belgorod after drone attacks. OPERATYVNYI ZSU's video highlights SSU efforts to counter RUF recruitment and sabotage. ASTRA video confirms 2 injured in Shebekino due to UAF strike. WarGonzo video confirms Shebekino chemical plant hit by UAF. ASTRA also shows photos of damage. The military man beating a colleague to death indicates internal discipline issues within RUF forces. Alex Parker Returns's "All is bad" post points to internal challenges. The continued UAF deep strikes against Russian territory, despite RUF claims of high interception rates, demonstrate a persistent capability to cause significant disruption and casualties within Russia. The "LazerBuzz" video suggests RUF is investing in advanced counter-UAV technologies. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video of large smoke plume corroborates serious impact. Lifting of yellow level UAV threat in Lipetsk suggests a temporary reduction in immediate threat, but previous red levels confirm active targeting. STERNENKO's video provides visual confirmation of the Shebekino chemical enterprise fire. RBK-Ukraina's confirmed chemical plant fire near Belgorod reinforces the significant impact of UAF deep strikes. The SSU's efforts to counter RUF recruitment highlight the hybrid warfare domain and RUF's ongoing attempts at internal destabilization. The proposed ban on soda and chips in Russian schools and the rally for businessman Karapetyan are internal, non-military developments. The xenophobic content from Alex Parker Returns highlights RUF internal ethnic tensions and propaganda. New claims of UAV interceptions over multiple Russian Oblasts indicate continued UAF deep strike activity. The Shebekino chemical plant hit by UAF further validates significant impact. The "Polish enterprise" explosion claim is RUF propaganda seeking to sow discord. The attack in Nalchik signals continued internal security challenges for Russia, potentially diverting resources and attention, as well as a possible increase in domestic unrest. Child stabbed in Sergiev Posad due to UAV attack. One Nalchik attacker detained. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video confirms industrial fire in Shebekino. New video provides context to the Nalchik attack. RUF video shows military vehicle collection for logistics. RUF MoD videos confirm high-level military medical meetings. Alex Parker Returns posts on Russian migrants in Argentina, indicating social/economic issues. ASTRA video appears to show the Nalchik incident. TASS reports a suspect was detained in the stabbing of a 9-year-old in Sergiev Posad. TASS reports a criminal case was initiated in Kabardino-Balkaria. STERNENKO reports widespread "drone safety" alerts across multiple Russian Oblasts. TASS reports Armenian MFA summoned Russian Ambassador over "statements" from Russia on Armenian internal political processes. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice designated two Lithuanian and German organizations as "undesirable." Two Majors post video captioned "Связисты Тимсо - жесткие люди," showing two camouflaged individuals in a wooded area with a campfire. Two Majors post additional videos of a woman thanking a military unit for radio installation and details of the installed radio, captioned "Как похорошел Майоромобиль при Морском отряде «Эспаньола»." Alex Parker Returns posts a video with caption "Обратите внимание на зубы." Colonelcassad mentions Iran's Civil Defense Organization head claiming WhatsApp played a role in pinpointing Hamas commanders. TASS reports Meloni states US did not stop arms supply to Ukraine, but revised decisions on separate components. TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport restrictions on aircraft reception/departure. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports "red level" UAV threat on Lipetsk region. TASS reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in three hours by MoD. AV БогомаZ confirms continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of an individual on the ground next to a car, captioned "Nalchik. Finish off the survivor. Let good happen!" with additional text about the Nanlchik attack showing the individual possibly injured. "Зона СВО" posts a meme video about a UAV operator correcting a group. TASS reports on a new law on criminal liability for "dropperism" (money laundering for fraudsters) coming into force on July 5th. Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "Midnight in Moscow!", suggesting normal civilian activity. Alex Parker Returns posts a video of a man speaking into a microphone, with a caption implying Belarusians are "stingy" in their donations for something. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video and photo messages of a truck fire in Lipetsk Oblast, claiming 6 military vehicles were destroyed. Alex Parker Returns posts a video featuring a man discussing Ukraine's mobilization potential for "10 more years of war." TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast, with no casualties. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, with no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. Alex Parker Returns posts video about two Romani individuals detained in Rostov for impersonating Chechens and extorting money. Alex Parker Returns also posts a video of a man apologizing to Russian citizens and soldiers, implying a confession related to military service. TASS reports 7 vehicles caught fire on the M-4 Don highway after a collision, with one injured. TASS reports St. Petersburg airport restrictions lifted. RBK-Ukraina reports Russians complaining about drone attack and explosions in Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast). ASTRA also reports Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast) under drone attack. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Saratov airport. New Update: Colonelcassad posts videos of captured military ordnance and equipment, identified as NATO equipment. Операция Z posts photos of the Cossack reconnaissance brigade "Terek" receiving a banner from the President with "With God." Полиция Хабаровского края posts photos of civilian personnel, not relevant. Further Update: TASS reports the head of "Voentorg" Vladimir Pavlov had his arrest extended on fraud charges. TASS reports a UAV attack on Cheboksary. RBK-Ukraina video confirms unknown drones attacking Cheboksary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh and Chuvashia. New messages: Colonelcassad posts videos of captured military ordnance and equipment identified as NATO equipment. Colonelcassad posts interview of a 71-year-old woman from Sudzha, Kursk region, alleging looting and destruction by Ukrainian forces. RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. TASS reports Ulyanovsk airport has restrictions on aircraft reception and departure. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA reports UAV attack on a military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, no casualties or damage. TASS reports court arrested 315 million rubles and shares in "Rusagro" from Vadim Moshkovich in fraud case. TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. Операция Z posts photos/text claiming increasing tension between Turkey and Israel. Оперативний ЗСУ posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). TASS posts photo message claiming Trump contributes to Russian victory by stopping arms supplies to Kyiv, citing The Spectator. ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. RBK-Ukraina posts new report from UAF Navy (03:12:13Z, 03:12:14Z). ASTRA posts multiple photo messages and statements related to a fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast, citing NASA FIRMS (03:04:40Z, 03:04:41Z). RBK-Ukraina posts similar reports about the BorisoGlebsk fire (03:18:52Z, 03:18:53Z). OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a video and photo messages of a drone, with assessment (03:23:14Z, 03:23:15Z, 03:23:16Z). New message: TASS reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility, citing the Ministry of Defense, and includes a video showcasing Ka-52 helicopters in flight and live fire. New message: TASS reports that Trump believes the situation around Ukraine is very difficult. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: TASS reports that Macron's call to Putin is an acknowledgment that world politics needs Russia. RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA has pulled all inspectors from Iran for the first time in 20 years. New message: TASS reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that over 94 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions during the night. This is a significant increase in claimed interceptions. New message: ASTRA reports that the governor of Voronezh Oblast confirmed more than 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of the oblast last night. This indicates a concentrated UAF deep strike. New message: Fighterbomber posts a video from a helicopter cockpit, showing what appears to be a reconnaissance or attack mission over rural terrain. This indicates continued RUF tactical aviation operations. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian PVO forces destroyed 94 enemy UAVs overnight. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. New message: ТАСС reports Trump does not rule out that the US will continue to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, including Patriot systems. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: RBK-Ukraina posts video of Trump commenting on his conversation with Putin regarding new sanctions against Russia. New message: Два майора posts a video with the caption "Сразу в десятке городов страны прошли проверочные мероприятия в отношении неонацистского подполья, которое украинские спецслужбы используют для диверсий и терактов в России." The video shows law enforcement/special forces conducting operations in urban environments, including preparing to breach a door and individuals being detained. This indicates RUF internal security efforts against alleged Ukrainian-backed "neo-Nazi underground." New message: Басурин о главном posts two photo messages discussing the impact of climate change on world agriculture. This is unrelated to military operations but shows a RUF channel engaging in general informational topics. New message: Рыбарь posts two photo messages with the caption "Звезда Давида на рукаве?" and a blurred image. This is likely an attempt at disinformation or propaganda aimed at linking a specific symbol to alleged undesirable groups, possibly for internal or external messaging. New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two photo messages with the caption "Патч «Волчонок 45» — данный патч не просто элемент формы, а настоящий символ мужества и боевого братства." The images show a military-style patch with a wolf design and text, serving as propaganda for a RUF unit, possibly the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. New message: ТАСС reports Volodin's statement on consequences for those aiding fraudsters (07:16:09Z, 07:16:10Z). New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace (07:28:15Z). New message: ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo airport is temporarily operating only for aircraft reception, with departures halted. New message: Новости Москвы posts a photo of a rare lightning event captured by an astronaut, which is civilian content. New message: РБК-Україна posts a photo message reporting Trump's statement on the US considering transferring Patriot missiles to Ukraine. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of an artistic depiction of a fire at night, implying a strike on an ammunition depot in Chuhuiv. New message: Kotsnews reports the Investigative Committee established that the order to shoot down the Il-76 with Ukrainian prisoners of war over Belgorod Oblast was given by the commander of the Ukrainian brigade, Mykola Dzyaman. New message: Военкор Котенок posts photo of Mykola Dzyaman, commander of the 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the UAF. This photo is likely linked to the Il-76 incident. New message: TASS reports a new briefing from the Ministry of Defense. New message: Стрелков Игорь Иванович posts a civilian message about prison conditions, not militarily relevant. New message: TASS reports the revival of the sobering-up system in Russia would reduce the burden on medical institutions and enhance street safety. New message: Два майора posts photos reporting internal grievances in RUF regarding aid not reaching the front lines. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaged. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of Zaporizhzhia Regional Governor presenting state awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagement near Pokrovsk with Russian forces destroying tanks and NATO equipment. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 54-year-old man wounded by enemy attack in frontline communities. TASS reports ZNPP power supply has been restored, and the 750 kV "Dniprovska" line is operational. TASS reports three casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including two children, one in serious condition, due to UAF attack. RBK-Ukraina confirms Ukrainian energy workers have saved ZNPP from another blackout. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts low-quality aerial footage of a settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора posts a video claiming "Zaporizhzhia Front" with aerial footage of a settlement, likely from a drone. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "Uvaha!" (Attention!) alert. TASS reports over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse corroborates this. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a fatality (84 y/o male) and two wounded (54 y/o male, 10 y/o child) in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attacks. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a series of photos showing damaged civilian vehicles and structures, with a caption indicating that the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs. This new message confirms continued RUF attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using both artillery and UAVs, and provides visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a heavily damaged structure or vehicle, with a caption "Днепропетровское направление." This suggests ongoing combat or attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction from a RUF perspective, likely damage caused by RUF. New message: TASS video claims RUF forces destroyed foreign mercenaries in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using "Geranium-2" drones. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video message showing a "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen soldiers or victims of conflict. This is a symbolic act, not a direct battlefield update. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamyanske, Veselyanka, Prymorske, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk, Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages about military engagement. New message: ASTRA reports two casualties in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours, and 33,000 residents are without power due to a UAF attack on a substation. This is likely referring to the Zaporizhzhia/Kherson border area or a broader regional impact. FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers. High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts confirming a visit from a US delegation. Blackout at ZNPP confirmed. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. New RUF UAV activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 1x fatality in Vasylivskyi district, and two wounded (54 y/o male, 10 y/o child) in Vasylivskyi district. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts a video of the governor presenting awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagements near Pokrovsk. A 54-year-old man was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ZNPP external power restored. 3x casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF attack, including 2 children (1 serious). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Два майора post videos of settlement in Zaporizhzhia front. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues new air raid alert, then lifted. Over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues new alert. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports RUF attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs, providing visual evidence of damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo showing a heavily damaged structure, indicating ongoing combat in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. New message: TASS reports RUF forces destroyed foreign mercenaries at the "Meridian" recreation base in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using "Geranium-2" drones. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a minute of silence. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 6x airstrikes in Kamyanske, Veselyanka, Prymorske, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk, Bilohirya. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos of casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages about military engagement, specifically "Our military powerfully repels enemy attacks on the hottest sectors of the front. We strengthen their power." This confirms UAF active defense and intent to reinforce. New message: ASTRA reports 2 casualties and 33,000 residents without power in occupied Kherson, likely referring to the Zaporizhzhia/Kherson border area or a broader regional impact. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) claims ~40 "Geraniums" attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports all 7 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv have been intercepted. New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports that Starokostiantyniv is under threat from enemy strike UAVs. New message: РБК-Україна reports that 42 drones were neutralized over Khmelnytskyi Oblast (07:15:01Z). New message: НгП раZVедка claims a massed strike of 200 attack UAVs on Starokostiantyniv airfield last night. FACT: RUF strike UAV threat confirmed. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. 4x UAVs flying towards Starokostiantyniv. RUF claims ~40 Geraniums attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: 7x UAVs towards Starokostiantyniv intercepted. New message: UAF Navy infographic. New message: UAF Air Force confirms strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force confirms Starokostiantyniv under threat. New message: 42 drones neutralized over Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: RUF source claims massed strike of 200 attack UAVs on Starokostiantyniv airfield. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention. The specific naming of Starokostiantyniv suggests a potential target of military significance (e.g., airfield). RUF claims of a massed attack suggest high-impact intent. Successful interception indicates UAF AD effectiveness. The report of 42 drones neutralized suggests a significant aerial attack. The claim of 200 UAVs against Starokostiantyniv highlights a major RUF effort against a key UAF air asset. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Vinnytsia Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. FACT: RUF strike UAV activity confirmed. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Cherkasy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. FACT: RUF strike UAV activity confirmed. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Chuvashia (RU): New Update: TASS and RBK-Ukraina confirm a UAV attack on Cheboksary (Chuvashia). Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Chuvashia. New messages: RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple videos confirming a large industrial fire with black smoke and an aerial event followed by an explosion in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, captioning it "Good drones visited Cheboksary, Chuvashia." New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of an industrial fire and explosions, identified as a "Geranium" strike on a facility in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, 07/05/2025. FACT: UAV attack confirmed on Cheboksary. New messages confirm smoke plumes, explosions, and mobile internet disruptions. A video shows an aircraft prior to explosion near an industrial building. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ASTRA confirm large industrial fire in Cheboksary after UAV attack near Vutherm boiler factory. New message: TASS reports UAV fell on vacant VNIIR building and damaged a warehouse under construction. New message: ASTRA reports head of Chuvashia confirmed attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" and that production is still halted since June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms large industrial fire and explosion in Cheboksary from UAVs. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports traffic blocked and UAV attack confirmed at VNIIR-Progress. New message: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of an industrial fire and explosions, identified as a "Geranium" strike on a facility in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, 07/05/2025. JUDGMENT: This indicates an expanded geographical reach of UAF deep strikes into the Russian Federation, threatening areas previously considered secure, with confirmed impacts on urban and industrial targets. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Saratov Oblast (RU): New message: ASTRA reports UAV attack on a military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. ASTRA reports residents of Engels, Saratov Oblast, report attack on military airfield. New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. FACT: UAV attack confirmed on military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. Sirens heard. New message: UAF Navy infographic. New message: UAF Navy infographic. New message: Saratov airport restrictions lifted. JUDGMENT: This represents a significant deep strike by UAF against a high-value military target within Russia, potentially impacting long-range aviation assets. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Voronezh Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Voronezh as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. RBK-Ukraina and ASTRA report drone attack and explosions in Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast). RBK-Ukraina video shows lights/flares in sky over Borisoglebsk. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast. New message: ASTRA posts multiple photo messages and statements related to a fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast, citing NASA FIRMS (03:04:40Z, 03:04:41Z). RBK-Ukraina posts similar reports about the BorisoGlebsk fire (03:18:52Z, 03:18:53Z). New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video and photos confirming a UAV strike on the RUF military airfield in BorisoGlebsk, Voronezh Oblast, with confirmed misses. New message: TASS reports that over 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of Voronezh Oblast last night, citing the governor. New message: ASTRA confirms that the governor of Voronezh Oblast reported more than 25 UAVs destroyed over four districts in the oblast last night. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: РБК-Україна posts photos reporting "SSO struck BorisoHlebsk airfield." New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos reporting "SSO struck BorisoHlebsk airfield." New message: STERNENKO posts photos reporting "General Staff: BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: Fighterbomber reports an attack on "Bebsk" (likely Borisoglebsk) airfield with an image from UAF General Staff, confirming damage. FACT: Drone safety/threat alert reported. Drone attack and explosions confirmed in Borisoglebsk, with visual evidence. New Update: RUF source reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast. New ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina reports confirm fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield, cited by NASA FIRMS. OPERATYVNYI ZSU confirms strike on military airfield. New message: TASS and ASTRA report over 25 UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, confirming a massed UAF deep strike. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS all confirm the strike on BorisoGlebsk airfield. New message: Fighterbomber confirms attack on Borisoglebsk airfield. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Voronezh Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations, with confirmed impacts on a military airfield. The massed nature of the attack (25+ UAVs) indicates a significant UAF effort. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Kyiv: Multiple fires confirmed in Kyiv following RUF strikes will impact air quality and complicate emergency response. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video confirms large-scale emergency response to fires, including fire-fighting aviation. Damaged railway infrastructure and partial traffic closures will impact logistics and civilian movement. Civilian sheltering in metro stations indicates the severe disruption to daily life. Widespread heavy smoke observed in multiple Kyiv districts further complicates conditions. MinDovkillia (Ukrainian Ministry of Environmental Protection) confirms high levels of air pollution in Kyiv. KVMDA claims low air pollution levels, which contradicts other observations of smoke and fires. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) highlights "Концентрация канцерогенов в воздухе Киева запредельная. Город курильщика." Damage to DTEK equipment and two transformer substations will cause power outages and further complicate restoration efforts. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kyiv. KVMVA posts new photo messages of damage in Kyiv. Police footage corroborates chaotic scene and emergency response. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo confirms widespread smoke. Alex Parker Returns video shows large explosion/mushroom cloud, with agricultural sprayer, but location not specified. ASTRA videos confirm civilians sheltering in metro. New message: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts two videos depicting burning buildings at night with emergency services, consistent with fire and damage. New message: РБК-Україна reports Kyiv Oblast suffered from night drone attacks, with a photo of emergency services, confirming ongoing environmental impact and response. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged, confirming localized environmental impact. New message: RBK-Ukraina photos show ongoing emergency rescue operations in Kyiv from yesterday's hits, indicating persistent impact and response. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Rostov Oblast (RU): Damage from UAV impacts (collapsed floor slab, residential damage, vehicles damaged) and a fatality will impact local infrastructure and potentially public morale. Substation disconnection affecting 6,000 people creates power outages. ASTRA reports attack on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant with at least 10 UAVs. TASS reports minimum 7 multi-story, 14 private residential homes, and 11 social objects damaged. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of strong impact. Alex Parker Returns video on detention of Romani individuals in Rostov, indicating internal security matters. TASS reports 7 vehicles caught fire on the M-4 Don highway after a collision, with one injured. This impacts a key logistics artery. New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage, indicating continued UAF deep strike attempts and RUF AD response. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Moscow Oblast (RU): Significant fire and smoke plume near Moscow indicates substantial damage, likely from UAF UAVs, impacting local infrastructure and potentially public morale in a key population center. Substation damage and widespread power outages in Sergiev Posad are confirmed, impacting infrastructure and daily life. Two casualties confirmed. Power fully restored. UAF source claims strike on substation powering a chemical institute. New footage shows the extent of the attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume. TASS reports a child was stabbed in Sergiev Posad and is in moderately severe condition due to a UAV attack. Fighterbomber posts a photo message captioned "Midnight in Moscow!", suggesting normal civilian life is unaffected. New message: TASS reports two UAVs flying towards Moscow were destroyed by PVO, citing Mayor Sobyanin. This confirms direct environmental impact on Moscow as a result of UAF deep strikes. New message: ASTRA confirms Mayor Sobyanin's report on two UAVs flying towards Moscow being repelled. New message: ТАСС reports aviation restrictions in some sectors of Moscow airspace. New message: ТАСС reports Sheremetyevo airport is temporarily operating only for aircraft reception, with departures halted, indicating environmental impact on air travel. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Saratov, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Perm, Kaluga, Oryol (RU): Temporary airport restrictions due to UAV activity will disrupt civilian and potentially military air traffic, leading to economic and social disruption. Saratov restrictions have been lifted. Samara, Perm, Izhevsk, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Kaluga, and Oryol airport restrictions have been lifted. ASTRA confirms drone shot down in Udmurtia. TASS reports 33 injured in Izhevsk, 5 seriously. ASTRA reports attack on Rosrezerv oil depot in Udmurtia. STERNENKO reports widespread "drone safety" alerts across Lipetsk, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Belgorod, Vladimir, Ivanovo, and Moscow Oblasts, indicating continued disruption to airspace and daily life. TASS reports Nizhny Novgorod airport restrictions. TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. New Update: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Saratov airport. TASS reports temporary restrictions introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. New message: TASS reports restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Ulyanovsk airport. TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports seasonal movement restrictions for heavy vehicles due to high air temperatures. Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia. New alert issued by ZOV, then lifted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of heavily damaged settlement, described as "Zaporizhzhia front." Blackout at ZNPP due to enemy strike has critical environmental and safety implications. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. ZNPP external power restored. 1x fatality and 2x wounded in Vasylivskyi district reported by UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling and damage in Zaporizhzhia. RBK-Ukraina reports Ukrainian energy workers saved ZNPP from another blackout. Over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple photos of damaged civilian vehicles and structures, confirming that RUF attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs, providing visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a minute of silence. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamyanske, Veselyanka, Prymorske, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk, Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts multiple photo messages about military engagement. New message: ASTRA reports 2 casualties and 33,000 residents without power in occupied Kherson Oblast due to a UAF attack on a substation, likely referring to the broader occupied southern territories including parts of Zaporizhzhia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • St. Petersburg (RU): Dam closure and expected flooding ("first in 160 years") will significantly impact local infrastructure, port operations, and civilian life. This could potentially divert internal resources and attention. TASS video shows high water levels in St. Petersburg. Sever.Realii reports at least two people injured due to falling trees in St. Petersburg. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. TASS reports St. Petersburg airport restrictions lifted. New Update: TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Pulkovo airport. New message: TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Power outages confirmed. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, now fully restored, impacting urban transport. Strong fire observed after combined attack. Trolleybus movement fully restored. Two rescuers injured. New explosion due to Shahed attack. Confirmed strike on civilian infrastructure with casualties. RUF video shows smoke plume. New reports confirm 3 injured civilians. Alex Parker Returns and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm large smoke plumes after impacts. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih, indicating increased civilian casualties and humanitarian impact. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video confirms Shahed hit in Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA posts photos of damage from a second RUF attack on Kryvyi Rih today. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kryvyy Rih of Dnipropetrovsk region. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "🪂 На Днепропетровском направлении наши войска зашли в Воскресенку." This is a RUF claim of ground advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast): Destruction of an educational facility will impact local social services. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Donetsk (Western Districts): UAF strike caused damage and casualties in Petrovka, Truvovskoy village, and 4 fatalities. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video/photos and Alex Parker Returns photo/text confirm UAF HIMARS strike and 4 fatalities in Donetsk. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition photo message shows consequences of a strike (likely UAF) on a civilian object in Shebekino, Belgorod. Colonelcassad video shows extensive structural damage to a multi-story residential building following a suspected missile strike. НгП раZVедка video shows a settlement under bombardment. New message: Mash на Donbasse reports rescuers extracted a two-year-old child from a burning house in Pervomaisk. This confirms damage to residential areas and civilian impact. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Ballistic missile threat and explosion in Voznesensk indicate direct impact on civilian areas. Kinburn Spit shows burning trees, indicating localized environmental impact. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kherson Oblast (including Mykolaivka). Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling in Nikopol. 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Odesa: Damaged Chinese consulate will have diplomatic implications. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. New message: РБК-Україна reports an Opel car exploded in Odesa (07:21:16Z). New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports an Opel car exploded in Odesa when a man got in, citing National Police (07:24:58Z). New message: Colonelcassad reports an explosion in Kyivsky district of Odesa, with reports of a car with a military person exploding. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU opened a terrorism case regarding the car explosion in Odesa. New message: Операция Z (RUF source) posts video claiming an explosion in Odesa, where a car with a Ukrainian military personnel was blown up, with visual evidence of damaged vehicle. ASTRA posts video and photos confirming the car explosion in Odesa, stating SBU qualifies it as an attempted terrorist attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Lipetsk Oblast (RU): New "red level" UAV threat in Yelets and Yelets district. Igor Artamonov reports red level for Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports "red level" UAV threat has been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports "yellow level" UAV threat for Lipetsk Oblast has been lifted. Igor Artamonov reports new "yellow level" air danger regime for all of Lipetsk Oblast and a "red level" UAV threat for Lebedyan and Lebedyansky district. Igor Artamonov reports the end of "red level" UAV threat for Lebedyan and Lebedyansky district. STERNENKO reports Lipetsk as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. ASTRA reports a column of MoD vehicles burned down on a highway in Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA provides multiple videos showing the burning vehicles and plumes of black smoke. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports a "red level" UAV threat on the territory of Yelets and Yelets district. Оперативний ЗСУ video and photos confirm a truck fire destroyed 6 RUF military vehicles, including an "Akhmat" and 5 "UAZiks." Confidence: HIGH.
  • Czech Republic: Mass power outage (blackout) reported, stopping trams and trapping people in elevators. This is a significant civilian infrastructure disruption in a NATO/EU country. TASS reports blackout was due to technical reasons. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Belgorod Oblast (RU): 7 injured due to UAF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise. Chemical enterprise fire in Shebekino after UAV attack reported by ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina. ASTRA reports 2 injured in Shebekino due to UAF strike. WarGonzo video shows large smoke plume, confirming hit on chemical plant. ASTRA also shows photos of damage. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video confirms industrial fire in Shebekino. STERNENKO reports Belgorod as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. New message: STERNENKO posts a video of a large industrial fire, likely in Shebekino, with a prominent dark smoke plume. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson Oblast): Moldy bread in stores suggests potential food supply issues. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (RU): Mobile communication and internet disruptions due to reduced signal levels of cell towers in response to UAV threats, as an additional measure to protect industrial and strategic objects. This indicates environmental impact on communication due to security measures. TASS reports airport restrictions for Nizhny Novgorod. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Colonelcassad posts video of yesterday's explosion near Zhytomyr, likely civilian. New message: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Warning! Zhytomyr Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs! FACT: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat. Colonelcassad video of yesterday's explosion near Zhytomyr. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Zhytomyr Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports warning for Zhytomyr Oblast due to UAV threat. JUDGMENT: Zhytomyr Oblast is now a confirmed area of RUF UAV threat, requiring UAF AD attention. The earlier RUF propaganda about a "Polish enterprise" may have been a precursor to this confirmed UAV activity. The new video from Colonelcassad provides visual context. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria (RU): Attack on police patrol with knives and shooting confirms an internal security incident with police casualties (one injured severely). This represents a localized disruption. TASS reports one attacker detained. TASS video shows the scene of the Nalchik incident with police vehicles. Colonelcassad provides multiple videos confirming the Nalchik attack. TASS reports a criminal case initiated in KBR following the attack. ASTRA video appears to show the moment of attack and detention. Alex Parker Returns posts a video showing an injured individual on the ground next to a blue car, captioned "Nalchik. Finish off the survivor. Let good happen!" with additional text indicating it is related to the Nalchik attack. New message: Операция Z posts video of the attack on police in Nalchik. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Unecha, Bryansk Oblast (RU): Civilian infrastructure (overpass) under construction is a strategic asset that could be targeted. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Poltava Oblast: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. Fighterbomber reports 15x "Gerbera" (Shahed) UAVs launched from Poltava airfield. FACT: RUF strike UAV threat confirmed. 15x Shahed UAVs launched from Poltava airfield. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention, and potentially a new launch point for RUF drones. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Tambov Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Tambov as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. FACT: Drone safety/threat alert reported. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Tambov Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Ryazan Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Ryazan as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. FACT: Drone safety/threat alert reported. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Ryazan Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Vladimir Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Vladimir as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. FACT: Drone safety/threat alert reported. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Vladimir Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Ivanovo Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Ivanovo as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. FACT: Drone safety/threat alert reported. New message: Airport restrictions confirmed. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Ivanovo Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. FACT: RUF strike UAV threat reported. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new area under threat from RUF UAVs, requiring UAF AD attention. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Smolensk Oblast (RU): TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast, no casualties. FACT: 3x UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Smolensk Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Leningrad Oblast (RU): TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 UAVs shot down over Leningrad Oblast, no casualties. FACT: 1x UAV destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. RUF sources report enemy attack. 2x UAVs shot down over Leningrad Oblast confirmed. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating continued capability and reach. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Chuvashia (RU): TASS reports a UAV attack in Cheboksary, reported by the Ministry of Emergency Situations application. RBK-Ukraina video confirms unknown drones attacking Cheboksary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Chuvashia. New messages: RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion. ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple videos confirming a large industrial fire with black smoke and an aerial event followed by an explosion in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, captioning it "Good drones visited Cheboksary, Chuvashia." New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of an industrial fire and explosions, identified as a "Geranium" strike on a facility in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, 07/05/2025. FACT: UAV attack confirmed on Cheboksary, Chuvashia. New messages confirm smoke plumes, explosions, and mobile internet disruptions. A video shows an aircraft prior to explosion near an industrial building. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ASTRA confirm large industrial fire in Cheboksary after UAV attack near Vutherm boiler factory. New message: TASS reports UAV fell on vacant VNIIR building and damaged a warehouse under construction. New message: ASTRA reports head of Chuvashia confirmed attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" and that production is still halted since June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms large industrial fire and explosion in Cheboksary from UAVs. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports traffic blocked and UAV attack confirmed at VNIIR-Progress. New message: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos of an industrial fire and explosions, identified as a "Geranium" strike on a facility in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, 07/05/2025. JUDGMENT: This represents a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range, impacting a new federal subject within the Russian Federation, with confirmed impacts on urban and industrial targets and civilian services. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Tulsk Oblast (RU): New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. FACT: 1x UAV destroyed over Tulsk Oblast. No casualties reported. JUDGMENT: Indicates an expanded geographical reach of UAF deep strikes into the Russian Federation. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RUF Dispositions:

    • Ballistic Missiles: Confirmed repeated ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast towards Kyiv (6 Iskander-M) and 1 Kinzhal. New ballistic missile threat from the east, since lifted, now re-reported by UAF Air Force, then lifted again. Ballistic missile threat from Crimea towards Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, with explosion in Voznesensk. Ballistic missile threat confirmed for Samar (Dnipro).

    • UAVs: Continued widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes, with renewed activity over Kyiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Pavlohrad, Poltava Oblast, and now Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro. RUF sources amplifying claims of successful strikes. Massed UAV attacks observed in Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Chuvashia, and Leningrad regions. RUF MoD claims high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more between 08:00 and 11:00 MSK, and 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol between 13:00 and 16:00 MSK, 16 more over Bryansk, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Oryol Oblasts between 16:00 and 18:00 MSK, 11 more over Bryansk Oblast, 3 more over Bryansk Oblast, now 94 total). RUF sources claim 539 drones were launched against Ukraine. RUF also claims to have captured a "Lyuty" UAF combat drone. RUF is deploying a robotic infantry complex "Sarmat-Mgla" with powerful EW capabilities against UAF drones. RUF FPV drones are actively targeting UAF EW stations. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts. Colonelcassad reports 5 UAF FPV drones destroyed by "VT-40" FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv (Colonelcassad). RUF claims to have captured a "Lyuty" UAF combat drone. Colonelcassad reports strike on UAV production facilities in Konotop. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZA posts video of a Ukrainian 'Baba Yaga' drone being targeted/engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro regions. Fighterbomber claims RUF UAVs ("Poseidons") can turn off transponders. Tsaplienko reports RUF launched Shaheds from three locations. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Donetsk, southwestern course. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report shot down "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones over Kyiv had advanced ISR capabilities (cameras, CRPA antenna, radio modem). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and implies UAF assesses RUF uses repeaters near Kyiv. "Воин DV" (RUF source) claims use of nets by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade to ground UAF drones in South Donetsk direction, using Mavic and Matrice 30T for reconnaissance. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. UAF Air Force reports UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video of a ZU-23-2 gunner successfully engaging an enemy drone (Shahed) at night, indicating continued air defense efforts against UAVs. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" post videos of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Oleksandr Vilkul reports a new explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" raids in Kryvyi Rih during the day. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of a downed "Gerbera" (Shahed) in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Операция Z quotes Ukrainian commander "Madyar" claiming RUF will attack with 1000 Shaheds per day or more. This indicates RUF intent to sustain massed UAV attacks. Alex Parker Returns video shows a large explosion with a mushroom cloud and agricultural sprayer, potentially a RUF strike in Ukraine. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 RUF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows the destruction of a concealed position, described as a "katsapsky quadrober" (Russian quadcopter operator). Alex Parker Returns video, although dark and grainy, appears to show a soldier with a rifle, captioned "Georgian fell prisoner to DSRG Rusich," which if accurate, suggests RUF special units operating and taking prisoners. РБК-Україна reports RUF launched "Shaheds" from multiple directions. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih for the second time in a day, with photos of damage. Fighterbomber reports a dozen and a half "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones took off from Poltava airfield. RUF UAV threat to Mykolaiv Oblast. 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Odesa Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. Colonelcassad reports enemy expects 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. Операция Z posts videos/photos claiming "swarm of Geraniums rushing to Kyiv: people hiding in metro." РБК-УкраїНА reports large quantity of attack drones in air raid regions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports large quantity of attack drones in air raid regions. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports Zhytomyr Oblast - threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborate this. RBK-Ukraina reports AD working in Kyiv. KVMVA reports UAV threat remains. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. TASS reports 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions in three hours. AV БогомаZ confirms continued destruction of enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov reports a Shahed drone impact in Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates Shahed impact in Chuhuiv. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims a large fire in Chuhuiv after a "Geranium" strike. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports Khmelnytskyi Oblast - threat of RUF strike UAVs. TASS reports 3 UAVs shot down over Smolensk Oblast. TASS reports 1 UAV destroyed over Gatchina district, Leningrad Oblast, with no casualties or damage. Операция Z reports enemy attacking Leningrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. RBK-Ukraina also provides an update on RUF drone movement, with tactical analysis. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims "Ресурс зенитных установок типа "Гепард" и других в Киеве практически исчерпан, - депутат Рады". Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." КМВА reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. RBK-Ukraina also reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. UAF Air Force provides updated information on enemy strike UAV movement. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv. RBK-Ukraina posts new data on RUF drone movement with tactical analysis. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims ~40 "Geraniums" attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 7x Shaheds approaching Starokostiantyniv have been intercepted. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports another Shahed is flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast and Chuvashia. New messages: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a video and photo messages of a drone (03:23:14Z, 03:23:15Z, 03:23:16Z). New message: TASS reports PVO forces repelled a UAV attack in Chertkovsky district, Rostov Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage. Оперативний ЗСУ posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). New message: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on Kyiv Oblast, moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: TASS reports a UAV was destroyed over Tulsk Oblast, with no preliminary casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: TASS reports that over 94 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions during the night. New message: ASTRA reports that the governor of Voronezh Oblast confirmed more than 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of the oblast last night. This indicates a concentrated UAF deep strike. New message: Fighterbomber posts a video from a helicopter cockpit, showing what appears to be a reconnaissance or attack mission over rural terrain. This indicates continued RUF tactical aviation operations. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Russian PVO forces destroyed 94 enemy UAVs overnight. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been temporarily introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: ASTRA reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Izhevsk airport. New message: UAF Air Force reports strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from enemy strike UAVs. New message: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions introduced at Ivanovo airport. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia launched 322 drones against Ukraine last night. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 292 enemy UAVs were neutralized. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 292/322 enemy UAVs were neutralized. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message with 292 of 322 UAVs destroyed, 135 lost locationally (07:14:31Z, 07:14:32Z). New message: MoD Russia posts two videos of "Geran" in sight, showing aerial view of buildings and explosions in a settlement (07:14:33Z, 07:14:34Z). New message: РБК-Україна reports 42 drones neutralized over Khmelnytskyi Oblast (07:15:01Z). New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports GUR assessment that Russia wants to involve Laos in aggression against Ukraine (07:21:39Z). New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports damage in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast: 7 private houses, 1 car, 1 educational institution, 1 cultural center, and 3 shops were damaged. New message: Kotsnews reports the Investigative Committee established that the order to shoot down the Il-76 with Ukrainian prisoners of war over Belgorod Oblast was given by the commander of the Ukrainian brigade, Mykola Dzyaman. New message: Colonelcassad posts video showing a RUF drone (Rubikon) striking a camouflaged 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Операция Z posts multiple videos of "Geraniums" striking UAF infrastructure, showing explosions and large smoke plumes. New message: ASTRA posts photo messages of a "Geranium-2" drone detail manufactured by Suzhou ECGO Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. in China, implying external component sourcing. New message: AV БогомаZ posts photos of a meeting between Bryansk and Mogilev (Belarus) officials discussing cooperation prospects. New message: РБК-Україна posts photo messages reporting Trump's statement on the US considering transferring Patriot missiles to Ukraine. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports warning! Zhytomyr Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs! New message: TASS reports Main briefing of the Ministry of Defense. New message: Colonelcassad reports RUF forces destroyed two Patriot launchers and two AN/MPQ-65 radar stations. Confidence: HIGH.

    • Cruise Missiles: Multiple reports confirm cruise missile launches targeting Kyiv Oblast (4 Iskander-K). Colonelcassad video shows animated scheme of strikes, including Iskander-M and Geran/Geranium drones. Confidence: HIGH.

    • Ground Forces: "Center" grouping continues offensive operations in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. Russian VDV units heavily engaged in Chasiv Yar, employing FAB glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Company-sized probing attacks and intense artillery/FAB strikes noted in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims limited gains in Kharkiv Oblast (Melove, Stroevka) and striking Oskil River crossings. RUF initiating new buffer zone fights in Belgorod region. 35th Combined Arms Army active in Huliaipole direction, claiming destruction of UAF EW station. RUF maintains offensive pressure in Kherson Oblast. MoD Russia posts video claiming destruction of AFU Zuzana SPG by "Zapad Group" servicemen. TASS claims RUF cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka in Donetsk. "Воин DV" (RUF source) claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade struck Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) claims destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Operatsiya Z claim destruction of the command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. WarGonzo posts video showing Grad MLRS in operation in Donbas. TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio from 425th Separate Assault Regiment in Krasnoarmiisk. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) posts video of Russian soldiers deploying to the SVO zone, with patriotic messaging. "Зона СВО" video claims destruction of fortified UAF positions in Kharkiv direction. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF liberated Predtechyno. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video collecting funds for paratroopers, showing a BM-21 Grad. MoD Russia video shows paratroopers using RPL-20 light machine gun in SVO zone. Воин DV posts video claiming a hit on UAF PVD in Piddubne. Операция Z posts video claiming destruction of UAF equipment in Kupiansk. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on current ground offensive activity across Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia, showing thermal imaging of a strike. Colonelcassad reports a night optical fiber drone hit a Swedish armored personnel carrier PBV302, filled with UAF infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with aggressive propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts map with "Slavno. Konstantinovke prigotovitsya." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts aerial reconnaissance video of a destroyed settlement on Zaporizhzhia front. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo message "03.07.25 Сумы - Алексеевка", implying active engagement in the area and RUF control. Colonelcassad reports "За окошком дождь и град," a phrase used to imply Grad MLRS activity, suggesting continued MLRS fire. MoD Russia video shows Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes and roads, implying active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing military vehicles and positions, including Oshkosh M-ATV and BBM, with engagements and explosions, identified as "Donbas. Rubikon is working." Basurin o Glavnom repeats the claim that an "Iskander" strike on Huliaipole destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Старше Эдды posts a video of a speaker from "Country of Life" implying a fundraising call, a similar propaganda tactic to НгП раZVедка, targeting Belarussian audience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message captioned "Красноармейское направление," implying RUF ground focus. TASS reports RUF is 3km from Konstantinovka after liberating Predtechyno. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming "Wartime" operators working in Krasnoarmiisk direction, showing a damaged multi-story building. RUF "Воин DV" posts video showing FAB strikes by 11th Army Air Force and Air Defense Army near Voskresenka, claiming ground group advances. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts map claiming "04.07.25 Chasiv Yar - Levanevskogo," suggesting RUF presence or control. MoD Russia posts video "Msta-S self-propelled artillery system (Tsentr Group of Forces) destroys AFU firing position in Krasnoarmeysk direction," confirming artillery use. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video suggests RUF forces are training for a Dnipro crossing operation. Colonelcassad reports on Northern direction (Siversk) active combat actions and tactical successes, showing drone footage of artillery/mortar strikes. WarGonzo video shows 36th Guards Brigade FPV drone strikes on enemy personnel. WarGonzo video shows SOMALI unit drone footage targeting and striking UAF armored vehicles, including a MaxxPro MRAP. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video captures drone footage of RUF infantry and a motorcycle, showing explosions and active combat, indicating RUF ground unit movement and UAF targeting. Два майора video shows Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, implying ongoing riverine operations. Операция Z (Русской Весны) posts a map claiming "Армия России наступает в Харьковская области, продвигаясь на ряде участков," implying ground advances. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for a bus with EW system for the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade. Colonelcassad FPV drone video claims destruction of nationalist equipment in Krasnoarmiisk. The video appears to show an engagement with a ground vehicle, possibly a tank or APC, with explosions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 22:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RBK-Ukraina corroborates this General Staff update. Colonelcassad posts new FPV drone footage from Donbas, showing military vehicles and engagements, identified as "Donbas. Rubikon is working." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. This refers to the Kharkiv axis, not Donetsk, but is a relevant update to force dispositions. New Update: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position by "Viking" operators. Colonelcassad posts new "Ночные прилёты полуторок!!!" videos and aerial surveillance footage (03:03:02Z, 03:03:03Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a photo message, claiming that an additional 1050 occupiers "have appreciated the hospitality of sincere Ukrainians," referring to estimated enemy combat losses. This message includes an infographic similar to the General Staff of UAF's daily loss reports. RBK-Ukraina corroborates Operatyvnyi ZSU's report of 1050 enemy combat losses, citing the General Staff. This indicates continued high attrition of RUF forces in the Donbas direction. New message: Colonelcassad posts compilation of FPV drone strikes by various units in the Karla Marksa and Voskresenka area. New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". Other General Staff photo messages are similar. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. This confirms continued RUF FPV drone use against UAF artillery. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos with the caption "Воїни 72 ОМБр імені Чорних Запорожців доводить свій професіоналізм на полі бою, з 2014 року захищаючи Україну." These photos show combat operations and damage. This highlights UAF active engagement and capabilities. New message: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України posts a video with the caption "Знайшли, влучили, знищили!" The video shows FPV drone footage, confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike on enemy positions or equipment. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two videos (07:14:01Z, 07:14:01Z) and text (07:14:02Z) captioned "NATO weapons against AFU" and showing drone footage of a grassy area, with a puff of smoke at 00:43, possibly a strike. New message: ТАСС video claims RUF FPV drone units "Rubikon" struck UAF ground robotic complexes (07:21:01Z, 07:21:02Z). New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "Freedom of Russia" Legion captured a Nigerian former student and ex-convict serving in RUF's 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:19Z, 07:20:19Z, 07:20:18Z, 07:20:19Z). New message: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kostyantynivka, Andriyivka-Klevtsove of Donetsk region. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Donetsk. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Nadiya, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Dibrova and towards Hryhorivka in Lyman direction. New message: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports map updated (07:21:18Z). New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of a soldier handling ammunition in a tactical environment (07:15:59Z, 07:16:00Z). New message: Colonelcassad posts video of RUF FPV drone striking a 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. New message: MoD Russia posts videos of 90th Guards Tank Division training assault detachments and mortar teams in a rear area. New message: "Воин DV" posts video and text from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade, claiming support for "Vostok" grouping stormtroopers near Malinovka, showing village under fire with explosions. Colonelcassad posts the same video and text, confirming RUF artillery support for ground assaults. New message: Два майора posts photos reporting internal grievances in RUF regarding aid not reaching the front lines, stating it's frustrating when "народная помощь уходит не на передок, а на штаб/учения/сборы." This indicates potential morale issues related to corruption or misallocation of resources. FACT: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis, with 27 attacks, 14 ongoing. Intense combat for Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with continuous platoon-sized VDV assaults. RUF claims destruction of UAF deployment points and mortar positions, and a ground drone and equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims clearing a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno. UAF reports 4 wounded in western Donetsk due to RUF strike, and destruction of an educational facility in Kramatorsk with 2 injuries. UAF reported 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF HIMARS strike, with damage to Petrovka and Trudovskoy village. RUF claims destruction of command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. RUF reports advances in Chasiv Yar (Kanal microdistrict, Levanevskogo) and Pokrovsk (Yablonovka). RUF is using tactical aviation for airstrikes and KAB launches in Donetsk Oblast (Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka). RUF claims powerful strikes on Kramatorsk. RUF claims FABing in Piddubne area. RUF claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operations in Karla Marksa. RUF claims "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. RUF claims forces are ~3km from Konstantinovka. RUF videos show FPV drone hits on UAF equipment, including a MaxxPro MRAP, and a potential engagement with a ground vehicle (tank/APC). RUF claims use of Msta-S artillery system in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF confirms hitting command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. RUF claims Kamenskoye stormed. RUF claims destruction of a UAF ground robotic complex attempting medical evacuation in Siversk direction. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes in Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. New message confirms KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position. Colonelcassad posts new videos of nighttime impacts and aerial footage of settlements, likely confirming ongoing strikes and reconnaissance. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU and RBK-Ukraina report 1050 RUF combat losses in the last 24 hours. New message: Colonelcassad posts FPV drone strike compilation in Karla Marksa and Voskresenka areas. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos of combat operations by the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, showing professional engagement. New message: 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts FPV drone footage confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts videos showing drone surveying a grassy/wooded area with a puff of smoke at 00:43, implying a strike. New message: ТАСС video claims RUF FPV drone units "Rubikon" struck UAF ground robotic complexes. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "Freedom of Russia" Legion captured a Nigerian former student and ex-convict serving in RUF's 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. New message: Liveuamap Source reports 2x airstrikes in Kostyantynivka and Andriyivka-Klevtsove. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Novopavlivka. New message: Liveuamap Source reports clashes in Lyman direction near Nadiya, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Dibrova and towards Hryhorivka. New message: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports map updated. New message: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of a soldier handling ammunition in a tactical environment. New message: Colonelcassad posts video of RUF FPV drone striking a 155mm foreign-made self-propelled howitzer near Tolstoy. New message: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts multiple photos indicating casualties and damage from enemy strikes in Donetsk Oblast. New message: MoD Russia videos confirm 90th Guards Tank Division training activities, indicating continued force generation and readiness. New message: "Воин DV" and Colonelcassad confirm 305th Guards Artillery Brigade supporting "Vostok" grouping stormtroopers near Malinovka, with visual evidence of shelled village. New message: Два майора posts photos regarding aid distribution issues within RUF, indicating potential resource misallocation. New message: Colonelcassad claims RUF destroyed two Patriot launchers and two AN/MPQ-65 radar stations. Confidence: HIGH.

    • Specialized Units: Evidence of RUF Eastern Military District (Vostok) personnel training with ORSIS .50 BMG sniper rifles suggests ongoing development of precision strike capabilities. VDV personnel continue to be highlighted in RUF propaganda. RUF units are receiving drone signal amplifiers and EW systems. Mine clearance operations by 49th Army sappers in Kherson direction indicate efforts to secure rear areas. Colonelcassad reports Russian mobile air observation posts actively countering FPV and reconnaissance drones. MoD Russia posts video of Military Police operations at a checkpoint in Kursk region. Fighterbomber posts video of helicopters performing "cabrirovanie" (evasive maneuvers) during strikes in the SVO zone, highlighting active tactical aviation. MoD Russia posts video showing an "Igla" MANPADS operator in action, highlighting continued deployment of short-range air defense. MoD Russia posts video of Special Forces conducting an assault, implying ongoing tactical engagements. RUF Military Police escorting military vehicles indicates control and logistics. RUF Eastern Military District forces training with ORSIS sniper rifles suggests a focus on precision targeting. Colonelcassad mentions "Anklav" EW system and its claimed destruction by FPV drones. RUF sources showcase specialized counter-drone measures like the "Sarmat-Mgla" robotic infantry complex with EW capabilities. "Воин DV" reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators using nets to ground drones. Colonelcassad reports on "Rubikon" FPV drone units. New message: MoD Russia posts video of 90th Guards Tank Division training assault detachments and mortar teams, indicating specialized unit training. New message: TASS video claims RUF FPV drone units "Rubikon" struck UAF ground robotic complexes. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "Freedom of Russia" Legion captured a Nigerian former student and ex-convict serving in RUF's 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. This highlights the presence of foreign fighters within RUF. New message: Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming destruction of a fortified firing point in Kharkiv direction by "Akhmat" special forces. This confirms continued operations by specialized Chechen units. Confidence: HIGH.

  • UAF Dispositions:

    • Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports significant success in neutralizing RUF UAVs (478 out of 550 total assets). Confirmed operation of UAF AD in Kyiv Oblast against cruise missiles and UAVs. Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds shot down by interceptor drones. UAF Air Force reports UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast engaged, RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk engaged, RUF UAVs on northern/eastern Kharkiv Oblast engaged, RUF UAVs in Sumy Oblast engaged, RUF UAV on Chernihiv Oblast engaged. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video of a ZU-23-2 gunner successfully engaging an enemy drone (Shahed) at night. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 7x Shaheds approaching Starokostiantyniv intercepted. UAF Air Force reports 292 enemy UAVs neutralized. New message: UAF Air Force issues new attention alert for Zhytomyr Oblast, indicating ongoing AD posture. New message: UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Ground Forces: UAF General Staff reports continued active defense along all axes, repelling assaults in Pokrovsk (13/27), Kramatorsk (4/10), Toretsk (2/5), Kurakhove (3/7), Orikhiv (not specified), Huliaipole (not specified), Velyka Novosilka (not specified), Lyman (9/12), and Kupyansk (6/10) directions. UAF destroyed a RUF flag on the Chernihiv border. UAF is utilizing FPV drones (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows drone footage of engagements, targeting and destruction of personnel and equipment). UAF reported destroying command posts of RUF 8th Combined Arms Army and 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk. SSU detained a spotter in Kyiv. GUR reports destruction of three UAV operators from Rogozin's unit in Kherson. UAF General Staff provided an infographic on estimated RUF combat losses (1050 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, 3 special equipment units in the last day), indicating continued high attrition. UAF is using HIMARS for deep strikes, causing casualties and damage in western Donetsk. OTU "Kharkiv" posts video on training, emphasizing combat readiness. UAF is employing ground drones for medical evacuation under fire. New message: 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts photo messages stating "Our military powerfully repels enemy attacks on the hottest sectors of the front. We strengthen their power," confirming continued active defense and rearmament efforts. New message: DeepState posts photos of combat operations by the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, showing their professionalism and active engagement. New message: 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts FPV drone footage, confirming successful UAF FPV drone strikes. New message: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows UAF using a ground robot for MEDEVAC and successfully repelling enemy FPV drone attacks. This highlights UAF adaptation and technological integration for combat support. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos with the caption "Не залишаю поза увагою жодної ділянки фронту, зокрема на тих відтинках, де є загроза нових наступальних дій противника," showing military personnel reviewing maps, indicating active command presence at the front and awareness of new threats. Confidence: HIGH.

1.4. Control Measures:

  • Air raid alerts are active for Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kirovohrad Oblasts and multiple Russian regions (Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Saratov, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Chuvashia, Leningrad).
  • Traffic restrictions in Kyiv (damaged railway infrastructure, partial road closures), Nizhny Novgorod (mobile communication and internet disruptions), and Sheremetyevo airport (temporary halt of departures).
  • Airspace restrictions reported for Izhevsk, Pulkovo (St. Petersburg), Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Ivanovo airports in Russia.
  • "Yellow level" and "red level" UAV threats issued and lifted for various Russian Oblasts (Lipetsk).
  • Civilian sheltering in metro stations in Kyiv.
  • Evacuation of civilians from affected areas where possible.
  • Emergency services (KVMVA, Dnipropetrovsk RMA, DSNs Kharkiv, Police) are actively engaged in damage assessment, fire suppression, and humanitarian aid.
  • Ukrainian SBU continues counter-sabotage and counter-recruitment efforts.

1.5. Key Terrain Observations:

  • Kyiv: Critical infrastructure (railway, power substations, residential areas, public services) heavily impacted by RUF strikes.
  • Chasiv Yar: Kanal microdistrict remains a critical contested urban area, with RUF attempting to secure footholds.
  • Kharkiv: Vovchansk and Lyptsi areas remain active, with RUF consolidating gains. Melove and Stroevka are RUF claimed gains. Chuhuiv suffered significant damage.
  • Kryvyi Rih: Civilian infrastructure and public transport severely impacted by strikes.
  • Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): Repeated blackouts pose significant safety risks, highlighting its strategic vulnerability.
  • Russian Border Regions: Intensified UAF deep strikes on military airfields (Engels, Borisoglebsk), industrial targets (Cheboksary, Vutherm boiler factory, VNIIR-Progress), and logistics infrastructure (Lipetsk truck fire, M-4 Don highway collision).
  • Oskil River: Ferry crossings reportedly targeted by RUF to disrupt UAF logistics.
  • Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast): RUF demining operations suggest potential riverine or amphibious intentions.
  • Starokostiantyniv Airfield (Khmelnytskyi Oblast): Remains a high-value target for RUF, with massed UAV attacks aimed at degrading UAF aviation capabilities.

1.6. Significant Events:

  • Massed RUF missile and UAV attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian Oblasts (26 casualties, 1 fatality in Kyiv; 8 casualties in Kryvyi Rih; 11 casualties including 2 children in Chuhuiv; 1 fatality, 2 wounded in Vasylivskyi district, Zaporizhzhia).
  • Confirmed UAF deep strikes into Russia (Cheboksary, Engels, Borisoglebsk, Lipetsk, etc.), causing infrastructure damage, flight delays, and casualties (33 injured in Izhevsk, 5 seriously; 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk from UAF HIMARS; 7 injured in Belgorod; 2 injured in Shebekino; 9-year-old child stabbed in Sergiev Posad due to UAV attack).
  • Increased RUF ground assaults in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Chasiv Yar directions.
  • Prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia.
  • Internal security incidents in Russia (Nalchik police attack, detained Azerbaijani diaspora head, money laundering law, internal grievances within RUF regarding aid distribution).
  • Continued reports of Chinese components in RUF UAVs.
  • GUR assessment of RUF intent to involve Laos in aggression.
  • Car explosion in Odesa, investigated as a terrorist act by SBU.
  • RUF claims destruction of two Patriot launchers and two radar stations (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Persistent Massed Aerial Attacks: RUF demonstrates sustained capability for massed (322 drones launched last night) and combined (ballistic, cruise, UAV) strikes against Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure. The use of "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones with advanced ISR capabilities (cameras, CRPA antennas, radio modems) suggests an evolving multi-functional role for these platforms, moving beyond simple strike assets to real-time reconnaissance and battle damage assessment (BDA). RUF claims of "swarm" tactics (200-300 Geraniums) indicate an intent for overwhelming saturation attacks.
    • Precision Strike Capabilities (FAB/KAB): Continued and possibly expanding use of glide bombs (FAB with UMPK) against targets deep within Ukraine (e.g., Kryvyi Rih, industrial zones) suggests an increasing reliance on these destructive, hard-to-intercept weapons where AD is less dense.
    • Ground Offensive Operations: RUF maintains the capability for high-intensity, localized ground assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, employing platoon- to company-sized mechanized units and specialized VDV elements. Claims of taking villages (Predtechyno, Melove, Stroevka, Voskresenka) indicate incremental tactical gains. Artillery support for ground assaults (e.g., 305th Guards Artillery Brigade near Malinovka) is confirmed.
    • Electronic Warfare (EW): The reported deployment of robotic infantry complexes with EW capabilities ("Sarmat-Mgla") and FPV drones targeting UAF EW stations suggests a concerted effort to counter UAF drone superiority and disrupt communication. This is a critical area of RUF development and poses a significant threat.
    • Logistical Sustainment: Evidence of troop deployments, continued aerial attacks, and ground assaults indicates RUF maintains sufficient logistical capacity to support ongoing operations, despite UAF deep strikes against their territory (e.g., Lipetsk truck fire). The restoration of power to ZNPP also indicates RUF's ability to restore critical infrastructure within occupied territories.
  • Intentions:
    • Degrade Ukrainian AD: The continued massed drone attacks, particularly targeting Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv airfield, are likely intended to saturate and exhaust Ukrainian air defense systems ("resource exhaustion" claim by RUF source). The focus on Starokostiantyniv suggests intent to degrade UAF aviation capabilities.
    • Disrupt Critical Infrastructure: Targeting of energy infrastructure (DTEK, substations in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih) and civilian targets aims to disrupt civilian life, reduce industrial capacity, and create a humanitarian crisis.
    • Fix UAF Reserves: The continued, albeit localized, ground offensives in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, coupled with heavy shelling, aim to prevent UAF from redeploying forces to the primary Donbas axes. The reported force concentration opposite Kharkiv reinforces this fixing intention.
    • Achieve Breakthrough in Donbas: The high-intensity assaults in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar are the primary offensive effort, aiming for tactical breakthroughs and the capture of key objectives.
    • Counter UAF Deep Strikes: RUF is investing in and deploying new counter-drone technologies and EW systems to mitigate the impact of UAF deep strikes on Russian territory.
    • Expand Geopolitical Influence: The GUR assessment regarding Laos indicates RUF's ongoing efforts to expand its network of influence and military cooperation beyond traditional partners.
  • Courses of Action (COA):
    • MLCOA: Continue combined massed missile and UAV strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, prioritizing AD saturation. Sustain high-intensity localized ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar) to achieve tactical gains. Maintain fixing operations on secondary fronts (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).
    • MDCOA: Initiate a larger-scale ground offensive north of Kharkiv (Belgorod Oblast concentration). Simultaneously, conduct a high-risk Dnipro river crossing operation in Kherson Oblast. This would create multiple new fronts, stretch UAF defenses thin, and force a significant redistribution of UAF resources.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • UAVs with ISR Capabilities: RUF is increasingly deploying Shahed/Gerbera drones with advanced cameras and data transmission capabilities, shifting these platforms from purely strike to multi-role ISR/strike. This allows for better targeting and BDA.
  • Massed UAVs for Saturation: RUF continues to employ overwhelming numbers of UAVs (322 launched, 200-300 expected in one night, 200 reported against Starokostiantyniv) to saturate AD.
  • Targeting Emergency Services: Direct hits on fire-rescue units (Kyiv) and injury to rescuers (Kryvyi Rih) indicate a deliberate targeting of emergency response, aiming to hinder recovery efforts and increase chaos.
  • FAB/KAB Usage: Sustained and expanding use of glide bombs, particularly the FAB with UMPK, to strike deep targets without significant AD opposition. This adaptation leverages air superiority in some sectors and avoids direct exposure to ground-based AD.
  • EW Countermeasures: RUF is prioritizing and deploying new EW systems and anti-drone measures (Sarmat-Mgla, FPV drones against EW) to counter UAF drone effectiveness, indicating a recognition of UAF drone superiority.
  • Ground Drone Counter-Operations: RUF is actively targeting UAF ground robotic complexes, including those used for medical evacuation, showcasing a focus on denying UAF technological advantages and increasing casualties.
  • Internal Resource Allocation Issues: RUF channels' complaints about aid not reaching the frontline but being diverted to headquarters/training suggest internal logistical and corruption challenges within RUF, potentially impacting morale and frontline sustainment.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Ammunition: Continued high-volume artillery and missile/UAV strikes suggest RUF maintains a robust, albeit potentially strained, supply chain for conventional munitions. The massed drone attacks from multiple directions (Poltava airfield now identified as a launch point) indicate a distributed and resilient UAV production and deployment network.
  • Fuel/Energy: Targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih suggests RUF aims to disrupt civilian and military energy supply. The blackout at ZNPP, though temporary, highlights the vulnerability of Ukrainian energy sources. Conversely, UAF deep strikes on oil depots (Chuhuiv) and industrial targets in Russia aim to degrade RUF's own energy and military-industrial capacity.
  • Equipment: RUF continues to field a range of equipment, from standard armor and artillery to new EW systems and FPV drones. Claims of destroying NATO equipment (e.g., Patriot, 155mm howitzer) suggest an ongoing focus on Western-supplied UAF assets. The reports of Chinese components in Shaheds highlight external sourcing.
  • Personnel: RUF maintains capacity for ongoing ground assaults, despite UAF claims of high RUF combat losses (1050 personnel in 24 hours). The "crippled regiments" training for Dnipro crossing could suggest a mix of mobilized and less-prepared forces are being readied for high-risk operations. The capture of a Nigerian ex-convict highlights ongoing RUF reliance on foreign and irregular forces, potentially indicating challenges in domestic recruitment.
  • Repair/Maintenance: No specific new information on RUF repair/maintenance, but the continued high tempo of operations implies a functional, if pressured, system. The complaints about aid diversion suggest potential issues with getting resources to where they are most needed.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • RUF: RUF appears capable of coordinating complex, multi-domain attacks involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hundreds of UAVs across multiple Ukrainian Oblasts. Tactical level command and control is evident in sustained ground assaults in Donbas and continued deep strikes on Russia. The identification of a UAF brigade commander in relation to the Il-76 incident (RUF claim) suggests RUF intelligence is actively targeting UAF command personnel. The overall coordination of massed drone strikes across wide geographical areas demonstrates effective strategic C2.
  • UAF: UAF Air Force is effectively coordinating AD operations across a wide area, successfully neutralizing a high percentage of incoming UAVs (292/322). UAF ground units are maintaining defensive lines and conducting tactical counter-actions. GUR reports destruction of RUF UAV operators, demonstrating effective intelligence-driven targeting. The rapid response of emergency services and restoration of critical infrastructure in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih (e.g., tram, power) indicates robust civilian-military coordination and crisis management. The ability to conduct medical evacuations under fire using ground drones further highlights tactical C2 adaptability. Commanders are actively visiting frontlines where threats of new offensive actions are high.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Air Defense (AD): UAF AD remains highly engaged and demonstrably effective against massed RUF UAV and missile attacks, with a high reported neutralization rate. The constant engagement, however, places significant strain on AD resources, personnel, and munitions.
  • Ground Forces: UAF ground forces are maintaining defensive lines across multiple axes, repelling numerous RUF assaults daily, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions. Readiness is maintained through continuous training (OTU Kharkiv video). Active command presence at the frontlines is noted.
  • Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to demonstrate a robust and expanding deep strike capability against military and strategic targets deep within the Russian Federation, utilizing UAVs and HIMARS. This capability serves to disrupt RUF logistics, degrade industrial capacity, and generate internal pressure.
  • Logistical Resilience: Rapid restoration of railway and tram services in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, and external power to ZNPP, highlights UAF's and supporting civilian infrastructure's resilience and capability to rapidly restore vital services under fire.
  • Innovation: The reported use of interceptor drones for Shahed interception and ground robotic complexes for medical evacuation under fire showcases UAF's continued innovation and adaptation to battlefield challenges, leveraging technology to mitigate risks and enhance combat effectiveness.
  • Force Generation: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's message about "strengthening their power" of the military indicates ongoing efforts to reinforce and resource frontline units.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • High AD Interception Rate: Neutralizing 292 out of 322 RUF UAVs (approx. 90.6%) is a significant success, mitigating severe damage and casualties, especially in Kyiv. Successful interception of 42 drones over Khmelnytskyi Oblast is notable.
    • Effective Deep Strikes: Successful UAF deep strikes on military airfields (Engels, Borisoglebsk), industrial facilities (Cheboksary's VNIIR-Progress, Belgorod chemical enterprise), and military logistics (Lipetsk truck fire) within Russia demonstrate continued offensive capability and inflict strategic costs on RUF. The damage to VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary, already non-operational, highlights persistent targeting.
    • Targeted Counter-Operations: GUR's reported destruction of RUF UAV operators in Kherson Oblast demonstrates effective intelligence-driven counter-operations. The SBU's opening of a terrorism case for the Odesa car explosion highlights active counter-hybrid operations.
    • Infrastructure Resilience: Rapid restoration of services in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, and ZNPP showcases UAF and civilian agencies' ability to quickly recover from significant strikes.
    • Successful MEDEVAC: The video showing successful ground drone evacuation of wounded soldiers under fire highlights UAF ingenuity and dedication to personnel.
    • Holding Ground: Repelling numerous RUF assaults across multiple axes, particularly in the Donbas, demonstrates strong defensive posture.
  • Setbacks:
    • Civilian Casualties: Significant civilian casualties and fatalities in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscore the ongoing human cost of RUF's relentless strikes. New casualties reported in occupied Kherson/Zaporizhzhia due to UAF strike on a substation.
    • Infrastructure Damage: Widespread damage to residential buildings, railway, power infrastructure, and social objects impacts civilian life and long-term recovery.
    • AD Strain: While effective, the sheer volume of RUF aerial attacks places immense strain on UAF AD resources, potentially exhausting munitions and personnel over time (as hinted by RUF propaganda regarding Gepard resources).
    • RUF Tactical Gains: RUF claims of taking Predtechyno, Melove, Stroevka, and Voskresenka, if confirmed, represent localized tactical setbacks for UAF.
    • Alleged Patriot System Losses: RUF claims destruction of two Patriot launchers and two radar stations, if confirmed, would represent a significant setback for UAF air defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires further verification).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Air Defense Assets: Continued high expenditure of AD munitions against massed UAV attacks necessitates a consistent and robust supply pipeline of interceptors and AD systems. There is a continuous need for advanced Western AD systems (e.g., Patriot) and point-defense systems.
  • Counter-EW Capabilities: The increasing effectiveness of RUF EW systems targeting UAF drones highlights a critical need for advanced counter-EW measures and resilient communications for UAF ground forces and drone operators.
  • Humanitarian Aid/Reconstruction: The widespread damage to civilian infrastructure and increasing casualties require sustained humanitarian aid, medical supplies, and resources for rapid reconstruction efforts.
  • ISR Assets: Continuous ISR coverage is required to monitor RUF force movements, especially the reported buildup north of Kharkiv, and to identify new RUF EW deployments.
  • Manpower: Sustained high attrition on both sides necessitates ongoing force generation and training, highlighting the importance of the mobilization effort.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RUF Messaging:
    • Claiming High UAF Casualties/Resource Exhaustion: RUF sources (Colonelcassad, Operatsiya Z) are actively pushing narratives about UAF AD exhaustion (Gepard resources depleted), significant UAF combat losses (110th Brigade command destroyed), and high numbers of UAF casualties. This aims to demoralize Ukrainian forces and their civilian population, and project an image of overwhelming RUF military superiority. The new claim of destroying Patriot systems amplifies this narrative.
    • Normalizing Violence/Dismissing Ukrainian Suffering: Alex Parker Returns's "У хохлов это обычный четверг" (For Khokhols, this is a normal Thursday) following an explosion video is a stark example of dehumanizing propaganda, minimizing the impact of strikes and attempting to normalize the conflict for a domestic Russian audience.
    • Highlighting Civilian Damage in Ukraine: RUF sources (e.g., Colonelcassad's video of damaged residential building) frame UAF actions as targeting civilians, attempting to shift blame for civilian casualties, especially after UAF HIMARS strikes on occupied Donetsk.
    • Internal Divisions/Sabotage: The Basurin o Glavnom claim of "Kyiv underground" destroying a UAF vehicle is an attempt to sow discord and suggest internal resistance within Ukraine, a classic hybrid warfare tactic. The "neo-Nazi underground" claims further amplify this.
    • Claiming UAF Deep Strike Incompetence/Decoys: Colonelcassad's claim that a downed "Gerbera" drone in the Dnipro was a "decoy" is likely a narrative to downplay the effectiveness of UAF AD and the actual capabilities of the Shahed/Gerbera drones.
    • Exaggerated Gains/Operational Successes: Consistent claims of "liberating" small settlements (Predtechyno, Melove, Stroevka, Voskresenka) and advancing towards key cities (Konstantinovka) aim to project an image of steady progress and undermine UAF defensive resolve.
    • Anti-Western Narratives: Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying NBC News report on US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies to Ukraine is a clear attempt to sow distrust between Ukraine and its Western partners. TASS claims about Trump's statements on arms supply also fall into this category. The Bloomberg "Germany preparing for largest rearmament since Third Reich" narrative by RUF sources attempts to portray NATO as aggressive and militaristic.
    • Highlighting External Support for RUF: Kadyrov's videos showing meetings on Chechen participation in the SVO and the captured Nigerian ex-convict serving in RUF forces, although concerning for RUF recruitment practices, are framed as evidence of diverse support for their war effort.
    • Internal Security Narratives: RUF sources are actively reporting on internal security operations (arrests, counter-terrorist actions in St. Petersburg, Nalchik attack) and new laws ("dropperism") to project an image of state control and address public concerns about internal stability. The Il-76 crash investigation blaming UAF commander Mykola Dzyaman is a specific attempt to shift responsibility and demonize UAF. TASS's new briefing from MoD likely continues these themes. The emphasis on "sobering-up stations" suggests a focus on domestic social order.
  • UAF Messaging:
    • Emphasizing Resilience and Recovery: Rapid reporting on restoration of services (electricity, transport) and emergency response efforts aims to boost civilian morale and demonstrate state effectiveness under attack.
    • Highlighting Enemy Attrition: Regular reporting on estimated RUF combat losses (1050 personnel daily) and equipment destruction serves to highlight the costs to RUF and maintain morale among UAF forces and the public.
    • Showcasing Modernization and Innovation: Videos of interceptor drones, ZU-23-2 engagements, and ground MEDEVAC robots aim to show UAF's adaptability and technological edge in specific areas.
    • Documenting RUF War Crimes/Terrorism: Strong condemnation of RUF strikes as "terrorist acts" (KVMVA) and detailed reporting on civilian casualties and infrastructure damage aim to galvanize international support and highlight RUF's disregard for civilian life. Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos of damage and casualties. The SBU opening a terrorism case for the Odesa car explosion reinforces this.
    • Prisoner Exchange Transparency: Reporting on prisoner exchanges (Oleg Syniehubov's posts) aims to reassure the public about welfare of POWs and demonstrate adherence to international norms.
    • Maintaining Unity: Official statements and reports generally emphasize national unity and resolve. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's message about "strengthening their power" of the military reinforces this. UAF General Staff photos from the front show commanders actively engaged.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Public:
    • Resilience and Determination: The continued resilience in the face of massed attacks, immediate emergency response, and rapid infrastructure repair indicate a strong will to resist and adapt. Civilian sheltering in metros is a routine adaptation.
    • Strain and Fatigue: The significant increase in casualties, widespread damage, and repeated air raid alerts will inevitably cause psychological strain and fatigue among the civilian population. Moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka suggests severe hardship.
    • Trust in Leadership: Zelenskiy's video statements and local authorities' updates contribute to maintaining public trust.
    • Demand for Protection: Public sentiment will likely continue to demand effective air defense and counter-measures against RUF strikes.
  • Russian Public (Based on RUF Sources and Internal Incidents):
    • Information Control: The tightening of information control (Akunin case, "dropperism" law) suggests efforts to manage public perception and prevent dissent. The focus on "neo-Nazi underground" points to attempts to explain internal sabotage as foreign-instigated.
    • Growing Discontent/Security Concerns: Reports of internal security incidents (Nalchik attack, Prilepin assassination attempt, drone attacks across multiple regions, Chechen economic dependence, Azerbaijani diaspora head deportation) suggest simmering discontent, ethnic tensions, and a growing perception of insecurity within Russia itself. The MTS communications failure adds to public frustration. The new reports from Два майора about aid not reaching the frontlines indicate growing grievances within the pro-war segment of the population.
    • Welfare of Military Personnel: Duma's proposal for remote sick leave for SVO soldiers and calls for Cuban medics indicate recognition of personnel issues, aiming to mitigate potential discontent.
    • Economic Strain: The fraud schemes targeting pensioners and the "Voentorg" scandal suggest economic pressures and corruption impacting the population.
    • Propaganda Consumption: The widespread dissemination of pro-war content and anti-Ukrainian narratives suggests a largely compliant, but potentially increasingly skeptical, population. The "Wise Russian introspection" from Valdai Club hints at intellectual discourse attempting to rationalize the conflict.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • Support for Ukraine:
    • Continued Aid: The visit of a US delegation to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Serhiy Lysak's photos) signifies continued Western diplomatic engagement and potential for further aid.
    • Debate on Aid Restrictions: While not a direct diplomatic development, the amplification of NBC News report on US Defense Secretary halting arms supplies to Ukraine and Trump's comments about Patriot transfers indicates ongoing, public debate within key allied nations regarding the scope and nature of military assistance.
    • IAEA Concerns: IAEA pulling inspectors from Iran (RBK-Ukraina) highlights potential shifts in international attention and priorities that could indirectly impact the Ukraine conflict.
  • Support for Russia:
    • Iran (Implied): The continued use of Shahed drones suggests ongoing military-technical cooperation with Iran, potentially including component supply (Chinese parts noted).
    • Belarus (Implied): AV Bogomaz posts photos of Bryansk and Mogilev (Belarus) officials discussing cooperation prospects, indicating ongoing regional ties, which could imply support for RUF.
    • Laos (GUR Assessment): The GUR assessment that Russia wants to involve Laos in aggression against Ukraine is a new and concerning diplomatic development, indicating RUF's global outreach for military support.
    • Syria (Implied): RUF sources highlighting Assad's comments suggest continued alignment with the Syrian regime.
  • Neutral/Other Developments:
    • Azerbaijan: The detention and deportation of the Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head from Moscow Oblast highlights complex geopolitical relations, potentially impacting Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. WarGonzo's discussion of Aliyev and Karabakh reinforces this.
    • Armenia: The Armenian MFA summoning the Russian Ambassador indicates diplomatic tensions between the two countries, despite their CSTO alliance, further highlighting Russia's strained regional relationships.
    • Romania: Romania stating it will not send troops to Ukraine is a key development, clarifying the limits of direct NATO involvement.
    • Czech Republic Blackout: While attributed to technical reasons, a mass power outage in a NATO/EU country is a significant event that draws attention and could be leveraged in information warfare.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • MLCOA 1: Sustain High-Intensity Deep Strikes with Evolving ISR Capabilities. RUF will continue massed and combined (missile and UAV) aerial attacks against Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and other major Ukrainian population centers and critical infrastructure. They will increasingly integrate advanced ISR capabilities into their UAVs (as seen with the new Shahed variants) to improve targeting, BDA, and post-strike assessment, aiming to exhaust UAF AD and degrade Ukrainian warfighting capacity.
    • Confidence: HIGH (Based on past 72 hours of persistent attacks, identified patterns of component integration, and public RUF rhetoric).
  • MLCOA 2: Concentrate Offensive Efforts on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk Axes. RUF ground forces will maintain high-intensity, attritional assaults on Chasiv Yar (Kanal microdistrict) and the Pokrovsk direction, leveraging heavy artillery and FAB/KAB strikes to precede ground assaults by smaller, more agile mechanized infantry groups. The objective remains a tactical breakthrough and securing key urban areas.
    • Confidence: HIGH (Consistent with current ground operations, reported advances, and stated RUF objectives in Donbas).
  • MLCOA 3: Continue Fixing Operations in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Axes. RUF will maintain a presence and conduct probing attacks, artillery fire, and limited ground assaults in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia directions. The purpose will be to tie down UAF reserves and prevent their redeployment to more critical Donbas sectors. A limited offensive north of Kharkiv remains possible but will likely be sub-echelon to the main Donbas effort.
    • Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH (Consistent with current operations and troop dispositions, but the scale of any Kharkiv offensive is less clear than the current Donbas grind).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • MDCOA 1: Coordinated Multi-Axis Offensive with Major Kharkiv Thrust. RUF launches a major ground offensive from Belgorod Oblast into Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to capture key strategic towns (e.g., Velykyi Burluk) and potentially encircle Kupiansk, while simultaneously intensifying and expanding ground assaults in the Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk) and launching a high-risk Dnipro river crossing in Kherson Oblast. This multi-axis, large-scale offensive would severely overstretch UAF resources and command structures, potentially leading to significant territorial losses and a critical test of UAF operational resilience.
    • Confidence: MEDIUM (RUF force concentration north of Kharkiv is observed, training for Dnipro crossing is reported, but the logistical and manpower requirements for such a coordinated, large-scale offensive across three major axes would be immense and likely exceed current RUF capabilities for sustained, simultaneous large-scale attacks. It would require significant mobilization or redeployment not fully observed.)
  • MDCOA 2: Systemic Cyberattack to Degrade Ukrainian C2 and Critical Infrastructure. RUF conducts a highly coordinated and sophisticated cyberattack targeting Ukrainian military C2 networks, critical infrastructure (energy, communications, transport), and government systems, aiming for widespread, prolonged disruption. This would precede or accompany a renewed conventional offensive, creating chaos and hindering UAF’s ability to respond effectively.
    • Confidence: MEDIUM (RUF possesses significant cyber capabilities and has used them in the past. While no direct indicators of an imminent systemic attack are present, the pervasive drone attacks on infrastructure could serve as a distraction. Such an attack would be harder to predict by conventional intelligence means but could have a disproportionate impact.)
  • MDCOA 3: Increased Recruitment of Foreign Fighters and Mercenaries with New State Sponsorship. RUF significantly increases its recruitment efforts from countries like Laos (as per GUR assessment), former Soviet states, and other regions, offering more attractive incentives or leveraging new state-level agreements. This would provide a significant influx of combat personnel, allowing RUF to sustain high casualty rates while maintaining offensive pressure.
    • Confidence: LOW-MEDIUM (GUR assessment is a new indicator. While RUF relies on foreign fighters, a significant increase through new state sponsorship would require major diplomatic and logistical efforts, which are not yet overtly visible beyond initial probing).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Immediate (0-24 hours):
    • Decision Point: UAF must decide on the optimal allocation of AD assets between protecting major population centers (Kyiv) and defending military assets (Starokostiantyniv), given persistent massed RUF UAV attacks.
    • Decision Point: UAF commands in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia must assess whether the current RUF activity signals a limited fixing operation or the precursor to a larger offensive, and prepare contingency plans for rapid reserve redeployment.
    • Observation: Continued high-intensity RUF ground assaults in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar will persist, with additional drone and glide bomb strikes across Ukraine.
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours):
    • Decision Point: If RUF consolidates gains in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, UAF will face decisions on counter-attack or tactical withdrawal to preserve forces.
    • Decision Point: If RUF force concentration north of Kharkiv intensifies or initiates ground movement, UAF will need to commit reserves to prevent a breakthrough.
    • Observation: Continued UAF deep strike operations into Russian territory are likely, aiming to disrupt RUF logistics and production. RUF will continue efforts to bolster internal security and counter perceived sabotage.
  • Mid-Term (72 hours - 1 week):
    • Observation: The sustainability of RUF's high-intensity aerial and ground assaults will become clearer, especially if UAF AD maintains its high interception rate and UAF ground forces inflict continued attrition.
    • Observation: The full scope of RUF EW capabilities and their impact on UAF drone operations will become more evident, potentially forcing UAF to adapt tactics or seek new countermeasures.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

  • RUF Force Composition and Intent North of Kharkiv: Specific unit identifications, exact strength, and confirmed objectives of the RUF force concentration in Belgorod Oblast are required to definitively assess the scale and timing of a potential offensive. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT on Belgorod Oblast, HUMINT from border areas).
  • RUF Strategic Reserves: Location, readiness, and movement patterns of RUF strategic reserves that could be committed to exploit breakthroughs in Donbas or initiate new offensives are unclear. (Collection Requirement: SIGINT on RUF command nets, IMINT of rear staging areas, OSINT monitoring of RUF military social media).
  • Detailed Damage Assessment (RU): Comprehensive BDA for UAF deep strikes on Russian military airfields (Engels, Borisoglebsk) and industrial targets (Cheboksary, Lipetsk) is needed to fully assess the operational impact. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, OSINT, TECHINT from open sources and local reporting).
  • RUF Counter-EW Effectiveness: Specific performance metrics and geographical deployment of new RUF EW systems (e.g., "Sarmat-Mgla") and their exact impact on various UAF drone types are needed. (Collection Requirement: TECHINT, SIGINT, debriefing of captured RUF personnel).
  • RUF Foreign Fighter Recruitment: More granular details on the scope, scale, and specific sources of foreign fighter recruitment by RUF, particularly regarding the GUR assessment on Laos, are required. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT, OSINT monitoring of recruitment networks, diplomatic reporting).
  • RUF Claimed Patriot System Losses: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding the destruction of Patriot launchers and radars is critical to assess the impact on UAF AD capabilities. (Collection Requirement: IMINT, SIGINT, technical analysis of RUF evidence).

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Prioritize Counter-EW & Resilient Comms: Immediately deploy advanced counter-EW systems and highly resilient communication solutions to UAF ground units and drone operator teams, especially in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk axes, to mitigate the impact of RUF EW and maintain ISR/strike capabilities.
  2. Reinforce Northern Defenses (Adaptive): Position readily deployable tactical reserves and mobile AD assets to the Kharkiv axis. This allows for a flexible response to the potential limited offensive, without over-committing forces away from the critical Donbas front. Initiate localized defensive preparations (e.g., mine laying, fortified positions) in key areas along the Kharkiv border.
  3. Intensify Deep Strike Targeting (RU): Focus UAF long-range strike capabilities (UAVs, HIMARS) on high-value RUF military logistics hubs, airfields, and industrial-military production facilities deep within Russia. Prioritize targets that directly impact RUF's ability to conduct massed aerial attacks and sustain frontline operations.
  4. Information Operations: Exploit internal security incidents and logistical strains within Russia (e.g., complaints about aid diversion) through targeted information campaigns, emphasizing the costs of the conflict to the Russian population and challenging RUF's narratives of stability and control. Counter RUF disinformation regarding UAF casualties, AD exhaustion, and claimed equipment losses (e.g., Patriot) with verified facts and BDA. Highlight RUF's use of foreign convicts and mercenaries.
  5. International Engagement for AD Supplies: Accelerate diplomatic efforts to secure additional and more advanced air defense systems and munitions from international partners, emphasizing the high expenditure rate and the need for sustained defensive capabilities against massed RUF attacks, especially in light of RUF claims regarding Patriot systems.
  6. Analyze Captured RUF UAVs: Conduct rapid, detailed technical analysis of captured RUF UAVs (e.g., Shahed/Gerbera with ISR capabilities and Chinese components) to understand their upgraded features, component sourcing, and inform counter-measures and EW development.

END REPORT

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