Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. Enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south. KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 26 casualties in Kyiv as of 0937Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. Partial traffic disruption confirmed. Severe structural damage to residential buildings, including a multi-story building engulfed in fire, confirmed by multiple sources. RBK-Ukraina reports 5 ambulances damaged in Kyiv due to the night attack, with no medical personnel casualties. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0543Z. Threat of collapse in a damaged five-story building in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv, reported. KVMVA states 550 air attack assets were launched by Russia against Ukraine, with almost all targeting Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports KVMVA statement re: "one of the largest combined attacks." OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports over 20 damaged locations and over 20 casualties in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos of significant damage from night attacks in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged Nova Poshta branches in Kyiv. Damaged book publishing warehouse "Nash Format" in Kyiv confirmed. Polish consulate in Kyiv was damaged during massed strike. RUF MoD claims a massed strike by RF Aerospace Forces on military infrastructure in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged DTEK equipment and destroyed two transformer substations in Kyiv during the attack. Basurin o Glavnom posts video claiming "Kyiv underground" destroyed a UAF vehicle "in broad daylight," showing a burning vehicle. KVMVA reports a fatality found in Sviatoshynskyi district during cleanup. RBK-Ukraina also reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Tsaplienko also reports at least one fatality in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports circular electric train traffic has been restored in Kyiv. ASTRA reports a civilian fatality in Kyiv. KVMVA posts video confirming damage to a fire-rescue unit, windows blown out, facade damaged, but no personnel casualties. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts photo message indicating several "Gerbera" (likely Shahed) drones shot down over Kyiv had cameras, CRPA antennas, and radio modems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates this information, claiming these were shot down overnight. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and that UAF believes RUF has repeaters near Kyiv to extend range to Bryansk Oblast. Oleksii Biloshytskyi posts video highlighting night attacks on Kyiv. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a damaged Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River near Kyiv. KVMVA posts new photo messages of damaged buildings and vehicles in Kyiv, underscoring the "terrorist act" by Russia. РБК-Україна posts police footage from night in Kyiv showing "All in shelter! Lie down!" commands and emergency response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming to show the moment a drone hit a residential building in Kyiv. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo message "Удар по Киеву – город в дыму," confirming visual effects of the strike. Alex Parker Returns video showing explosion with mushroom cloud and agricultural sprayer vehicle, captioned "У хохлов это обычный четверг." This appears to be a RUF BDA video for a target in Ukraine, but the location is not specified beyond "Ukraine" (У хохлов). The presence of the agricultural sprayer suggests a civilian or dual-use target. This video does not contradict prior Kyiv reporting but represents a separate, likely significant, impact. RBK-Ukraina video featuring Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones during the night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms SBU detained a spotter who was guiding missiles and drones to Kyiv. Colonelcassad video shows a damaged fixed-wing drone, resembling a "Gerbera," floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv, which RUF claims is a decoy. РБК-Україна reports RUF launched "Shaheds" from multiple directions. Kyiv air raid alert. RUF UAV threat to Kyiv/Chernihiv. 1x Shahed flying towards/through Boryspil/Kyiv. UAF AD operating in Kyiv Oblast. Explosions in Kyiv. KVMVA warns residents not to leave shelters. RBK-Ukraina reports large number of attack drones in air raid regions. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports large number of attack drones in air raid regions. UAF Air Force reports attention for Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports first arrivals of "Geraniums" as evening raid begins, and enemy expects 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports the primary vector for RUF UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. RBK-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborate this. RBK-Ukraina reports AD working in Kyiv. KVMVA reports UAV threat remains. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the primary vector for RUF strike UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. RBK-Ukraina also provides an update on RUF drone movement, including a tactical analysis of a provided image indicating drone paths. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims "Ресурс зенитных установок типа "Гепард" и других в Киеве практически исчерпан, - депутат Рады". Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." КМВА reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. RBK-Ukraina also reports Kyiv air raid alarm ended. New Update: UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: KVMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports Kyiv under air raid alert. RBK-Ukraina confirms air raid alert in Kyiv. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1x Shahed (moped) flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms air raid alert due to UAV threat. New message: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 1x Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). New message: UAF Air Force reports a UAV on Kyiv Oblast, moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts two video messages depicting buildings engulfed in flames at night, with emergency services present, indicating significant damage. New message: РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was affected by night drone attacks, with a photo message showing emergency services. This confirms ongoing damage assessment and response. New message: ТАСС reports that the Russian MoD says two UAVs flying towards Moscow have been destroyed by PVO forces, citing Moscow Mayor Sobyanin. This indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts and RUF AD response. New message: ASTRA confirms Mayor Sobyanin's report on two UAVs flying towards Moscow being repelled. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 292 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This is a UAF claim of successful AD operations. New message: РБК-Україна reports Russia launched 322 drones against Ukraine last night. This confirms a high volume of RUF aerial attacks. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 292/322 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This corroborates the UAF Air Force claim and provides a ratio of neutralization. FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, significantly increased civilian casualties (up to 26 wounded), a confirmed fatality in Sviatoshynskyi district, damaged railway infrastructure, damaged DTEK equipment, and destroyed two transformer substations confirmed in Kyiv. A residential house in Hatne was hit by a drone. Civilians are sheltering in metro stations. Traffic disruptions and widespread smoke confirmed. Emergency services are actively engaged in BDA and fire suppression across multiple districts, utilizing aviation. New video/photo evidence confirms severe structural damage to residential buildings, including damage to Nova Poshta branches and a book publishing warehouse. 5 ambulances were damaged. Threat of collapse in Solomyanskyi district. RUF claims strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport. KVMVA confirms "one of the largest combined attacks" with 550 air attack assets launched against Ukraine, majority targeting Kyiv. Consequences are being fixed in three Kyiv districts. KVMDA claims low air pollution. Polish consulate was damaged. RUF propaganda highlights air quality issues in Kyiv and expresses satisfaction with the strikes. RUF MoD claims confirm intent to hit military and strategic infrastructure. Damage to a fire-rescue unit is a direct strike on emergency services, compounding the humanitarian impact. The increase in casualties and the confirmed fatality underscores the severity of the attack. Damage to DTEK equipment and substations indicates targeting of energy infrastructure. The claimed "Kyiv underground" attack on a UAF vehicle is RUF disinformation aiming to portray internal resistance within Ukraine, but lacks credible verification. Restoration of circular electric train traffic demonstrates UAF resilience in restoring critical infrastructure. Discovery of Chinese components in Geranium UAVs highlights international supply chain for RUF military hardware. The advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (Gerbera) indicate RUF is using them not just for strike but also for reconnaissance and targeting updates, a notable tactical evolution. Alex Parker Returns's claim regarding new reconnaissance drones and UAF assessment of repeaters supports the UAF reporting on the ISR capabilities of downed Shaheds and and confirms the RUF intent to use these drones for advanced reconnaissance. Downed Shahed drone confirmed in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. KVMVA's new photos reinforce the severe damage and frame it as a "terrorist act." Police footage and drone strike video confirm continued intense civilian impact and emergency response. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo further corroborates widespread smoke in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns video shows large explosion/mushroom cloud with an agricultural sprayer, likely from a RUF strike in Ukraine, though location unspecified. Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones. SBU detained a spotter in Kyiv. New video confirms damaged "Gerbera" drone in Dnipro. RUF launched Shaheds from multiple directions. Kyiv under air raid alert. RUF UAVs threaten Kyiv/Chernihiv. 1x Shahed approaching Boryspil/Kyiv. UAF AD is engaged in Kyiv Oblast. Explosions reported in Kyiv. Civilians sheltering in metro confirmed. KVMVA, RBK-Ukraina, Operatyvnyi ZSU, and UAF Air Force confirm large number of attack drones. Colonelcassad reports initial "Geranium" arrivals and enemy expectation of 200-300 "Geraniums" overnight. RUF strike UAVs are actively moving towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF AD is operating in Kyiv. Primary vector for RUF strike UAVs is again towards Kyiv Oblast and the capital. UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina report updated information on RUF UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. New RUF claim regarding Gepard and other AD resource exhaustion in Kyiv. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Kyiv air raid alarm ended. New Update: UAF Air Force reports new RUF strike UAV threat on Kyiv Oblast. RBK-Ukraina corroborates new RUF drone threat to Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." Further Update: Kyiv under air raid alert. 1x Shahed flying towards/through Boryspil/Brovary. New message confirms 1x Shahed has flown through Brovary towards Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports updated information regarding Russian strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast moving west towards Ivankiv. New message: UAF Air Force reports UAV in Kyiv Oblast, course on Borodianka. New message: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" posts two videos showing a burning building at night, consistent with ongoing attacks. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports Kyiv Oblast was affected by night drone attacks, with emergency services photos. New message: TASS reports two UAVs flying towards Moscow were destroyed by PVO. New message: ASTRA corroborates two UAVs towards Moscow repelled. New message: UAF Air Force reports 292 enemy UAVs neutralized. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports Russia launched 322 drones last night. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 292/322 enemy UAVs neutralized. Confidence: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykhalchyna Sloboda of Chernihiv region. General Staff of UAF posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag erected on the border with Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF destroying a RUF flag on the border. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Chernihiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Kyiv/Chernihiv. UAF Air Force reports renewed information on RUF strike UAV movement, specifically towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. FACT: 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykhalchyna Sloboda. UAF destroyed a RUF flag on the border. RUF UAV active in Chernihiv Oblast. RUF UAV threat to Chernihiv remains. UAF Air Force reports primary vector of UAVs is towards Western Oblasts, with new Shaheds from the North. UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. JUDGMENT: RUF continues to use tactical aviation for strikes near border areas. UAF maintains active counter-reconnaissance/symbolic actions in border areas. Continued RUF UAV activity indicates ongoing reconnaissance/strike intent. New video corroborates UAF action. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. RUF UAV threat to Chernihiv remains, with shifting vectors potentially indicating new targets deeper in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties in Kryvyi Rih (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the afternoon/evening. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (previously 7). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports RUF combat losses as 1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, and 3 special equipment units in the last day. TASS reports ZNPP power supply has been restored, and the 750 kV "Dniprovska" line is operational. Fighterbomber reports a dozen and a half "Gerbera" (Shahed) drones took off from Poltava airfield. TASS reports three casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including two children, one in serious condition, due to UAF attack. Serhiy Lysak reports not to ignore air raid alert. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts low-quality aerial footage of a settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора posts a video claiming "Zaporizhzhia Front" with aerial footage of a settlement, likely from a drone. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "Uvaha!" (Attention!) alert. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "all clear". TASS reports over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse corroborates this. Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides a general update on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts of Ukraine, with new Shaheds entering from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force reports aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement (03:01:39Z). UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a series of photos showing damaged civilian vehicles and structures, with a caption indicating that the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs. This new message confirms continued RUF attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using both artillery and UAVs, and provides visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a heavily damaged structure or vehicle, with a caption "Днепропетровское направление." This suggests ongoing combat or attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction from a RUF perspective, likely damage caused by RUF. New message: ТАСС reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility, citing the Ministry of Defense, and includes a video showcasing Ka-52 helicopters in flight and live fire. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video with the caption "Удари по Чебоксарському «ВНИИР» настільки вразили кацапа, що той втратив навички формування думок в речення." The video shows plumes of dark smoke, suggesting ongoing impacts or fires. This implies a successful UAF deep strike impacting RUF industrial capability. FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers (previously reported 6 total, new report confirms 2 injured civilian infrastructure strike). High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts confirming a visit from a US delegation. Blackout at ZNPP confirmed. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. New strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih confirmed, with preliminary 2 injured (now updated to 3 injured). RUF confirms new strike on Kryvyi Rih. New RUF UAV activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. Alex Parker Returns and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 videos corroborate large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kherson, Nikopol, and Kryvyi Rih, including damaged SUV and residential buildings. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 1x fatality in Vasylivskyi district and 1x wounded 54-year-old male and 1x wounded 10-year-old child in Vasylivskyi district. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. New video confirms Shahed hit on Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports significant RUF combat losses (1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, 3 special equipment units). ZNPP external power restored. 15x "Gerbera" (Shahed) UAVs launched from Poltava airfield. 3x casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF attack, including 2 children (1 serious). Serhiy Lysak confirms air raid alert for Dnipropetrovsk. RUF UAV threat to Kirovohrad Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Два майора post videos of settlement in Zaporizhzhia front. Zaporizhzhia Oblast under air raid alert, then lifted. Over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports on "mopeds" (UAVs). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports almost all UAVs are currently heading towards Western Oblasts, with new Shaheds from the North. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports general update on "mopeds." UAF Air Force reports updated information on RUF strike UAV movement. New message: UAF Air Force confirms aviation weapons threat in Synelnykivskyi district, and enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports residual UAV activity. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports RUF attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs, with accompanying photos of damaged civilian vehicles and structures. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo with the caption "Днепропетровское направление," showing a heavily damaged structure. This is likely a RUF BDA post. New message: TASS reports that a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed UAF personnel in the "North" grouping's area of responsibility. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video showing smoke plumes, indicating an attack on the Cheboksary "VNIIR" enterprise. Confidence: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. WarGonzo map indicates continued advances in the Chasiv Yar direction and claims for control of the Kanal microdistrict. WarGonzo also claims "liberation of Yablonovka" near Andriivka, indicating continued engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators destroying UAF strongpoints and technical means in the Huliaipole direction, specifically claiming destruction of a Ukrainian EW station. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast at 0538Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka of Donetsk region. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Myrne, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Razine, Promin, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Dachne and towards Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka, Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka in Pokrovsk direction yesterday. Clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Orikhiv direction. Clashes yesterday near Novozlatopil in Huliaipole direction. Clashes yesterday near Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Katerynivka in Toretsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Vyyimka, Serebryanka and Fedorivka in Siversk direction. Clashes yesterday near Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyny, Torske, Nadiya and towards Serebryanka, Dronivka and Shandryholove in Lyman direction. RUF source "Операция Z" claims a "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk (RUF claims against UAF rear bases). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video showing "FABing" in the Piddubne area by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army. TASS claims Russian forces cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade worked against enemy personnel and equipment in Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) posts video claiming destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims new targets hit in "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from Donetsk into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims " уточнение после удара по 110-й мехбригаде ВСУ" (clarification after strike on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade) with photo messages implying successful strike. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims "Армия России уничтожила всё командование 110-й бригады ВСУ одним ударом" (Russian Army destroyed entire command of UAF 110th Brigade with one strike). TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Военкор Котенок also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Операция Z also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact in Kramatorsk with photos showing smoke and damaged buildings, implying a strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk region. TASS reports UAF struck western Donetsk, with preliminary reports of casualties and 4 wounded. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio traffic from 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk area. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports UAF shelling of western Donetsk, with some targets intercepted by PVO. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports PVO working in Donetsk and a missile strike by UAF on western districts of DNR capital, claiming civilian casualties. Mash na Donbasse video claims UAF struck Petrovka in Donetsk, with preliminary 4 injured and some deceased. ASTRA video also shows damage in Trudovskoy village, western occupied Donetsk, due to UAF strike. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports liberation of Predtechyno in DNR. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition states 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Colonelcassad posts video showing destruction of a UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar on minefields. TASS posts video showing aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of occupied Donetsk. WarGonzo reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF shelling. Basurin o Glavnom posts video showing aftermath in western Donetsk from UAF strike, with claims of 4 dead, 4 wounded. Voenkor Kotenok posts video showing damage in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed." The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV activity in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving southwest. Mash na Donbasse reports 4 fatalities in Petrovka from explosions. Basurin o Glavnom discusses why bridges across the Dnieper are still intact. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RUF WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia, showing thermal imaging of a strike. Colonelcassad reports a night optical fiber drone hit a Swedish armored personnel carrier PBV302, filled with UAF infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with aggressive propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed," with an implication to Konstantinovka to "prepare." Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing military vehicles and positions, including Oshkosh M-ATV and BBM, with engagements and explosions, identified as "Donbas. Rubicon is working." Basurin o Glavnom repeats the claim that an "Iskander" strike on Huliaipole destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. TASS reports that RUF forces are approximately 3km from Konstantinovka (Donetsk) after liberating Predtechyno. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming "Wartime" operators working in Krasnoarmiisk direction, showing a damaged multi-story building. RUF "Воин DV" posts video showing FAB strikes by 11th Army Air Force and Air Defense Army near Voskresenka, claiming ground group advances. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts map claiming "04.07.25 Chasiv Yar - Levanevskogo," suggesting RUF presence or control. MoD Russia posts video "Msta-S self-propelled artillery system (Tsentr Group of Forces) destroys AFU firing position in Krasnoarmeysk direction," confirming artillery use. Colonelcassad posts video and photos of "Последствия прилета ракеты РСЗО «HIMARS» с шрапнельной боевой частью перед АС «Трудовская» в Петровском районе Донецка," confirming UAF HIMARS strike and casualties. Alex Parker Returns posts photos and text "По Донецку нанесен удар HIMARS. Четверо погибших. В последние дни хохлы значительно активизировали удары по Донецку и Луганску. Используют HIMARS и ракеты Storm Shadow," corroborating UAF HIMARS strikes and confirming fatalities in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message "Краснолиманское направление," indicating ongoing focus on this axis. Colonelcassad video indicates tactical successes and active combat in the Siversk direction, showing drone footage of artillery/mortar strikes in a wooded area. RUF WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on enemy personnel from the 36th Guards Brigade. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition photo message shows consequences of a strike (likely UAF) on a civilian object in Shebekino, Belgorod. WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry, specifically a MaxxPro MRAP. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows destruction of a concealed position, likely a RUF "quadrober" (quadcopter user) or small structure. РБК-Україна reports UAF struck the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows the aftermath of a suspected missile strike on a multi-story residential building, claiming "ВСУ продолжает расстреливать дома гражданских." Colonelcassad reports FPV drone strikes by the Maksim Krivonos Battalion on nationalist equipment in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. The accompanying video from Colonelcassad shows drone footage of an engagement with a ground vehicle, possibly a tank or APC, and explosions. The video displays watermarks that may indicate Ukrainian origin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a Russian soldier engaging a drone and losing, from the "Hostri Kartuzy" unit. RBK-Ukraina reports 230,000 Russian occupiers neutralized by UAF in six months, citing Syrsky. The accompanying video shows drone footage of engagements, targeting and destruction of personnel and equipment, with Ukrainian text overlays indicating locations like 's. Hrodovika' and 's. Ivanivka'. Colonelcassad provides multiple drone videos including damaged residential buildings, shelling impacts, and a BM-21 Grad firing salvo. RUF sources claim "🅾️tvazhnyye" group was ambushed by a "waiting killer." Сливочный каприз posts a tactical map for the Novokselivske direction, indicating ongoing combat engagements. НгП раZVедка posts aerial video of a settlement under bombardment, with large explosions. Colonelcassad posts an "author's weekly column" with medical information about epidural and subdural hematomas, pupil dilation, speech and motor impairment, with photo messages of brain diagrams. This is a RUF source sharing medical information, possibly for combat medics or to highlight the severity of injuries sustained. "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Siversk-Hryhorivka direction, indicating ongoing combat engagements. Operatsiya Z claims that Russian forces have stormed Kamenskoye, stating they crossed the bottom of the Kakhovka reservoir and attacked the enemy from the flank, implying a significant tactical maneuver. The accompanying image suggests a combat zone, potentially showing a military advance or engagement. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "Southern" group intelligence FPV drone destroyed an enemy ground robotic complex attempting to evacuate a severely wounded UAF soldier in the Siversk direction, and that the evacuation failed. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a HIMARS strike in Makiivka, which occurred two years ago, confirming the demilitarization of 75 Grad MLRS salvos. Операция Z posts an intercepted Ukrainian communication discussing potential operational encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad due to lack of infantry. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational update as of 22:00 04.07.25: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RBK-Ukraina corroborates this General Staff update. Colonelcassad posts new FPV drone footage from Donbas, showing military vehicles and engagements, identified as "Donbas. Rubicon is working." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. This refers to the Kharkiv axis, not Donetsk, but is a relevant update to force dispositions. New Update: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position by "Viking" operators. Colonelcassad posts new "Ночные прилёты полуторок!!!" videos and aerial surveillance footage (03:03:02Z, 03:03:03Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a photo message, claiming that an additional 1050 occupiers have "appreciated the hospitality of sincere Ukrainians," referring to estimated enemy combat losses. This message includes an infographic similar to the General Staff of UAF's daily loss reports. RBK-Ukraina corroborates Operatyvnyi ZSU's report of 1050 enemy combat losses, citing the General Staff. This indicates continued high attrition of RUF forces in the Donbas direction. New message: Colonelcassad posts compilation of FPV drone strikes by various units in the Karla Marksa and Voskresenka area. New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". Other General Staff photo messages are similar. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. This confirms continued RUF FPV drone use against UAF artillery. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos with the caption "Воїни 72 ОМБр імені Чорних Запорожців доводить свій професіоналізм на полі бою, з 2014 року захищаючи Україну." These photos show combat operations and damage. This highlights UAF active engagement and capabilities. New message: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України posts a video with the caption "Знайшли, влучили, знищили!" The video shows FPV drone footage, confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike on enemy positions or equipment. FACT: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis, with 27 attacks, 14 ongoing. Intense combat for Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with continuous platoon-sized VDV assaults. RUF claims destruction of UAF deployment points and mortar positions, and a ground drone and equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims clearing a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno. UAF reports 4 wounded in western Donetsk due to RUF strike, and destruction of an educational facility in Kramatorsk with 2 injuries. UAF reported 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF HIMARS strike, with damage to Petrovka and Trudovskoy village. RUF claims destruction of command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. RUF reports advances in Chasiv Yar (Kanal microdistrict, Levanevskogo) and Pokrovsk (Yablonovka). RUF is using tactical aviation for airstrikes and KAB launches in Donetsk Oblast (Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka). RUF claims powerful strikes on Kramatorsk. RUF claims FABing in Piddubne area. RUF claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operations in Karla Marksa. RUF claims "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. RUF claims forces are ~3km from Konstantinovka. RUF videos show FPV drone hits on UAF equipment, including a MaxxPro MRAP, and a potential engagement with a ground vehicle (tank/APC). RUF claims use of Msta-S artillery system in Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF confirms hitting command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. RUF claims Kamenskoye stormed. RUF claims destruction of a UAF ground robotic complex attempting medical evacuation in Siversk direction. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes in Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions. New message confirms KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a camouflaged 120mm mortar position. Colonelcassad posts new videos of nighttime impacts and aerial footage of settlements, likely confirming ongoing strikes and reconnaissance. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU and RBK-Ukraina report 1050 RUF combat losses in the last 24 hours. New message: Colonelcassad posts FPV drone strike compilation in Karla Marksa and Voskresenka areas. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: DeepState posts photos of combat operations by the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, showing professional engagement. New message: 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade posts FPV drone footage confirming a successful UAF FPV drone strike. Confidence: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." WarGonzo map for Sumy direction shows enemy advances near Ryzhivka, confirming continued pressure. Rybar (RUF source) provides animated map, claiming counter-battery fire and tactical advances in Sumy direction, specifically around Andriivka, Kondratovka, and Yuganovka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novomutyn of Sumy region. UAF repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction yesterday. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo with the caption "04.07.25 Сумы - Новониколаевка", implying active engagement in the area. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts drone video of an artillery strike in the Sumy direction, near Andriivka. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on northern Sumy Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, warning Myhorod. RBK-Ukraina confirms UAF Air Force report of high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, warning Myhorod to take cover. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo message "03.07.25 Сумы - Алексеевка", implying active engagement in the area and RUF control. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. TASS reports two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Moskalkova hopes Kyiv will fulfill its promise regarding the return of residents of Kursk border areas displaced to Sumy Oblast. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports on the prisoner exchange, stating two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast, and 30 Russian citizens remain in Ukraine. ASTRA confirms two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast. TASS posts video featuring Moskalkova discussing the prisoner exchange and human rights, referencing a Geneva convention. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV on Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged for interception (03:23:55Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, heading west, and then confirms the target stopped being fixed north of Khotin. This indicates a potential engagement or target evasion. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption "Сумское направление." This indicates continued RUF focus on this area. New message: ТАСС reports that the Russian MoD says "Geranium-2" drones struck Ukrainian UAV production facilities in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, and posts a video as evidence. This is a RUF claim of a successful deep strike on a military-industrial target. FACT: RUF probing attacks and KAB usage confirmed. RUF sources claim advances near Ryzhivka and other border settlements. 1x airstrike confirmed in Novomutyn. UAF repelled 16 assaults. RUF reports active engagement in Novomykolaivka and Alekseevka, Sumy region. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Sumy Oblast. New KAB launches reported. Artillery strike confirmed in Andriivka area. Renewed RUF UAV activity in northern Sumy Oblast and generally in the oblast. UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina confirm high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, course southwest, warning Myhorod. UAF Air Force confirms renewed KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast engaged. Two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange, as reported by TASS, Moskalkova, Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, and ASTRA. New TASS video shows Moskalkova discussing the return of Kursk Oblast residents. New UAV activity confirmed in Sumy Oblast. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. RUF PVO claimed destruction of 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, indicating ongoing UAF deep strikes against Russian border regions. New UAF Air Force alert confirms enemy UAV on Sumy Oblast with AD assets engaged. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, heading west, that is no longer being fixed north of Khotin. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message "Сумское направление," confirming continued RUF focus. New message: TASS reports RUF struck UAF UAV production facilities in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, with "Geranium-2" drones, with video evidence. Confidence: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. UAF Air Force reports "Kharkiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs" at 0523Z. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs over eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west, at 0532Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Ambarne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka in Kupyansk direction. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv RMA, provides video and photo updates on the aftermath of strikes, consistent with previous reports of damages and ongoing emergency response. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Colonelcassad reports 5 enemy UAVs destroyed by FPV drones "VT-40" in Kharkiv direction. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo of engagement in Kupyansk - Peschanoye direction. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims "Chernika" loitering munitions were used for the first time against targets in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos with the caption "Наші люди вдома. Більшість із них перебувала в російському полоні ще з 2022 року," related to a prisoner exchange. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Kharkiv Oblast. OTU "Kharkiv" posts photos with the same caption about "Our people are home." Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z posts photo message claiming RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka, creating another Kharkiv bridgehead. "Зона СВО" posts video claiming destruction of fortified enemy positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState posts map showing the situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) posts a video claiming destruction of UAF equipment in Kupiansk by "Groza" system. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message captioned "Харьковское направление," which does not include additional text, indicating continued RUF focus on this area. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video featuring Ukrainian soldiers undergoing training, including firearms, anti-tank grenade launcher use, and discussion of combat stress, emphasizing combat readiness. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos regarding a high-level dialogue on democratic governance in Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video titled "Today, on the occasion of the Day of the National Police of Ukraine, I presented state awards to our police officers." This is a public event focused on morale and recognition, not immediate battlefield geometry. The content is similar to one posted by Zelenskiy/Official and does not provide new information on force dispositions or battlefield geometry. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z posts video of a MaxxPro MRAP hit in the 36th Army's area of responsibility. Операция Z (Русской Весны) posts a map claiming "Армия России наступает в Харьковская области, продвигаясь на ряде участков," implying ground advances. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Oleg Syniehubov reports a Shahed drone impact in Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates Shahed impact in Chuhuiv. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims a large fire in Chuhuiv after a "Geranium" strike, with accompanying photos. Oleg Syniehubov reports that the number of injured due to the enemy strike on Chuhuiv has increased to three. RBK-Ukraina corroborates the increase in casualties in Chuhuiv to three. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a truck fire in Lipetsk Oblast, captioned as having destroyed 6 military vehicles, including an "Akhmat" and 5 "UAZiks." Военкор Котенок posts photo messages claiming "В Чугуеве (Харьковская область) мощное зарево после работы "Гераней" по целям в городе." Colonelcassad posts video of combat work by 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction, showing drone footage of infantry group under artillery/mortar fire. New Update: ASTRA reports 5 injured in Kharkiv Oblast from evening attacks, citing local authorities. New message: TASS reports Marochko claims RUF forces are blockading all UAF logistics in Kupiansk and encircling the city. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. New message: TASS reports that UAF are asking their command to prepare for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast after RUF liberated Melove (03:26:26Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: Операция Z reports that Russian forces have taken Melove in Kharkiv Oblast to expand their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, citing DS (DeepState). New message: General Staff of UAF posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025, with text "Оперативна інформація станом на 08:00 05.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення". New message: Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. This is an updated number from the previously reported 9 settlements. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 injured, including 2 children, from a massed UAV strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. This is a significant increase from previous reports. New message: РБК-Україна posts an "Immediate Assessment" including a logo for "ДСНС Харківщини" (State Emergency Service of Ukraine for Kharkiv region). This confirms the involvement of emergency services in BDA and response operations. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts multiple photos with the caption "В Чугуєві досі ліквідовують пожежу на одному з обʼєктів міста, яка сталася після влучання російських дронів." These photos show firefighters engaged in suppressing a large blaze at a damaged building, confirming significant post-strike fire and emergency response efforts. FACT: KAB usage confirmed. RUF claim of striking Oskil river crossings. Renewed UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. 6 settlements struck. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Clashes reported near Vovchansk and Ambarne. Renewed UAV threat in Northern/Eastern Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims destruction of 5 UAF FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims engagement near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - no UAF confirmation). UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov's posts confirm a prisoner exchange involving Kharkiv Oblast personnel. Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z claims RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - no UAF confirmation). "Зона СВО" video claims destruction of UAF positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState map shows situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports continued UAV threat. Операция Z video claims destruction of UAF equipment near Kupiansk. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia's video on EW activity further confirms RUF's focus on countering UAF drones and protecting their ground movements in conflict areas, possibly the Kharkiv axis. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message indicates continued RUF attention on the Kharkiv direction. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 video indicates UAF is actively engaged in maintaining high levels of combat readiness for ground forces in the Kharkiv area. Oleg Syniehubov's photos are civilian content showing a political/diplomatic meeting. Colonelcassad's new video confirms FPV drone success against UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV and a towed howitzer, in the Kharkiv direction, a tactical success for RUF. Oleg Syniehubov's video is a formal ceremony, not battlefield information. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. New RUF video shows a MaxxPro MRAP hit. New RUF map claims ground advances in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Shahed drone impact confirmed in Chuhuiv, with reports of a large fire and now 3 casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a truck fire destroying 6 RUF military vehicles in Lipetsk Oblast, implying a successful deep strike. New photo message from Voenkor Kotenok confirms large fire in Chuhuiv after "Geranium" attack. Colonelcassad's new video details combat work of 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Lyptsi direction (Kharkiv), providing visual confirmation of ground engagement. 5 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to evening attacks. New message: TASS reports Marochko claims RUF forces are blockading all UAF logistics in Kupiansk and encircling the city. UAF Air Force confirms enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports UAF is requesting command to prepare for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast following RUF liberation of Melove. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: Operatsiya Z reports Russian forces have taken Melove in Kharkiv Oblast to expand their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 injured, including 2 children, from a massed UAV strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. New message: RBK-Ukraina's "Immediate Assessment" and the "ДСНС Харківщини" logo confirms emergency services are active in Kharkiv, responding to damage. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos confirm ongoing large fire and emergency response in Chuhuiv after drone strikes. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage, airstrikes, clashes, UAV threat, UAF equipment losses, casualties), MEDIUM (Melove/Stroevka liberation claim, Oskil strikes, "Chernika" claim, Kupiansk encirclement claim, Velykyi Burluk defense preparation - no UAF confirmation).
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 04.07.25. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (mopeds). Oleksandr Vilkul reports an explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of explosions in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. RUF claims new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih with "Geraniums" without AD opposition. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms UAV hit Kryvyi Rih causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 6 men injured in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video and claims it's the first time a glide bomb hit Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. RBK-Ukraina reports full restoration of high-speed tram movement in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул posts multiple photo messages indicating a formal ceremony, likely awards or recognition within a domestic setting. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" raids in Kryvyi Rih during the day, in addition to massed night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (1 severe, 3 moderate, 3 light), previously 7. RBK-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih for the second time in a day, confirming photos of damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. FACT: Situation reported as controlled. Renewed UAV threat, explosion, fire, and repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack and KABs. RUF claims targets hit without AD opposition and power outages, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties confirmed by Vilkul and ASTRA, including two rescuers. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, now fully restored, impacting urban transport. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. Trolleybus movement fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 use. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing a formal ceremony. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. New strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih confirmed, with preliminary 2 injured (now updated to 3 injured). RUF confirms "Geranium" attacks on Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Oleksandr Vilkul, RBK-Ukraina, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 all confirm new impacts and casualties in Kryvyi Rih, with large smoke plumes. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (1 severe, 3 moderate, 3 light), indicating increased civilian casualties and humanitarian impact. RBK-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. New video confirms Shahed hit in Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA confirms second RUF attack on Kryvyi Rih today with multiple photos showing damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos confirming 8 injured. New message: Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 05.07.25, with no new strikes. JUDGMENT: Increased casualties to 8 wounded indicates sustained and effective RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. The video confirming Shahed hit further corroborates the attack. The continued use of FAB with UMPK indicates RUF's increasing precision strike capabilities against urban centers. ASTRA and Serhiy Lysak's reports confirm a second attack today and the increased casualty count. The latest report from Vilkul indicates a temporary stabilization of the situation in Kryvyi Rih. Confidence: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Mykolaiv, then further towards Voznesensk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast, northern course. STERNENKO also reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea. RBK-Ukraina reports explosion in Voznesensk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts video from Kinburn Spit with burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos showing damage in Kherson Oblast from "enemy attacks." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming "Бойова підготовка калєч-полків триває повним ходом, готуються до форсування Дніпра за будь-яку ціну" (Battle training of "crippled regiments" is in full swing, preparing to cross the Dnipro at any cost) in temporarily occupied Southern Ukraine, indicating RUF intent. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports GUR destroyed three UAV operators from Dmitry Rogozin's unit in Kherson Oblast today. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror in Kherson region with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling and damage in Kherson. Два майора video shows Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, implying ongoing riverine operations. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 25 Shahed drones are flying from the left bank through the Kinburn Spit towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports many RUF Shaheds are meeting Odesa. Colonelcassad posts two videos showing Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025. FACT: UAF repelled 3 assaults. 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykolaivka. Ballistic missile threat towards Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, with explosion in Voznesensk. Video from Kinburn Spit shows burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kherson. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos of moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video suggests RUF forces are training for a Dnipro crossing operation. GUR claims destruction of 3x RUF UAV operators in Kherson Oblast. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kherson. New video shows RUF demining operations on the Dnipro River. Massed Shahed drone approach over Kinburn Spit indicates renewed deep strike threat to Mykolaiv Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms many Shaheds towards Odesa. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: General Staff of UAF published operational situation update. New message: General Staff of UAF confirms operational updates for multiple directions as of 08:00 05.07.2025. New message: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message summarizing the operational situation as of 08:00 05.07.2025. JUDGMENT: RUF maintains limited offensive pressure and air activity in Kherson direction. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Mykolaiv and Voznesensk indicate an expansion of RUF deep strike targets and continued threat to southern Ukraine. The Kinburn Spit video suggests continued military activity and potential for environmental impact in the region. UAF continues to document damage. The moldy bread in Kakhovka suggests logistical/food supply issues in RUF-occupied territories, potentially impacting civilian morale and stability. RUF training for a Dnipro crossing is a significant indicator of offensive intent in the southern direction. GUR claim of UAV operator destruction is a tactical success for UAF. Continued shelling highlights ongoing threat to civilians. RUF demining operations suggest active preparations for ground movement or riverine control. Massed Shahed drone approach over Kinburn Spit indicates renewed deep strike threat to Mykolaiv Oblast and Odesa. Confidence: HIGH.
Russian Territory:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaged. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of Zaporizhzhia Regional Governor presenting state awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagement near Pokrovsk with Russian forces destroying tanks and NATO equipment. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 54-year-old man wounded by enemy attack in frontline communities. TASS reports ZNPP power supply has been restored, and the 750 kV "Dniprovska" line is operational. TASS reports three casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including two children, one in serious condition, due to UAF attack. RBK-Ukraina confirms Ukrainian energy workers have saved ZNPP from another blackout. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts low-quality aerial footage of a settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front. Два майора posts a video claiming "Zaporizhzhia Front" with aerial footage of a settlement, likely from a drone. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues "Uvaha!" (Attention!) alert. TASS reports over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse corroborates this. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a new alert. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a fatality (84 y/o male) and two wounded (54 y/o male, 10 y/o child) in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attacks. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a series of photos showing damaged civilian vehicles and structures, with a caption indicating that the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs. This new message confirms continued RUF attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using both artillery and UAVs, and provides visual evidence of civilian infrastructure damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo of a heavily damaged structure or vehicle, with a caption "Днепропетровское направление." This suggests ongoing combat or attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction from a RUF perspective, likely damage caused by RUF. New message: TASS video claims RUF forces destroyed foreign mercenaries in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using "Geranium-2" drones. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video message showing a "Minute of Silence," commemorating fallen soldiers or victims of conflict. This is a symbolic act, not a direct battlefield update. FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers. High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts confirming a visit from a US delegation. Blackout at ZNPP confirmed. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. New RUF UAV activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 1x fatality in Vasylivskyi district, and two wounded (54 y/o male, 10 y/o child) in Vasylivskyi district. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts a video of the governor presenting awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagements near Pokrovsk. A 54-year-old man was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ZNPP external power restored. 3x casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from UAF attack, including 2 children (1 serious). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Два майора post videos of settlement in Zaporizhzhia front. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues new air raid alert, then lifted. Over 20,000 subscribers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast without electricity due to a UAF strike on energy infrastructure. New message: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues new alert. UAF Air Force reports KAB/KAR launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and enemy UAVs active in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with engagement ongoing. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports air raid alarm lifted. UAF Air Force reports updated information regarding enemy strike UAV movement. New message: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports all clear. New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports RUF attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night with artillery and UAVs, providing visual evidence of damage. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo showing a heavily damaged structure, indicating ongoing combat in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. New message: TASS reports RUF forces destroyed foreign mercenaries at the "Meridian" recreation base in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using "Geranium-2" drones. New message: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of a minute of silence. Confidence: HIGH.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 4 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) claims ~40 "Geraniums" attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports all 7 "mopeds" flying towards Starokostiantyniv have been intercepted. New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force reports that Starokostiantyniv is under threat from enemy strike UAVs. FACT: RUF strike UAV threat confirmed. UAF Air Force reports Starokostiantyniv under threat from strike UAVs. 4x UAVs flying towards Starokostiantyniv. RUF claims ~40 Geraniums attacking Starokostiantyniv aviation base. New Update: 7x UAVs towards Starokostiantyniv intercepted. New message: UAF Navy infographic. New message: UAF Air Force confirms strike UAV threat on Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New message: UAF Air Force confirms Starokostiantyniv under threat. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention. The specific naming of Starokostiantyniv suggests a potential target of military significance (e.g., airfield). RUF claims of a massed attack suggest high-impact intent. Successful interception indicates UAF AD effectiveness. Confidence: HIGH.
Vinnytsia Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. FACT: RUF strike UAV activity confirmed. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention. Confidence: HIGH.
Cherkasy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current primary groups of drones are in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on operational situation as of 06:00 05.07.2025. New message: General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 05.07.2025. FACT: RUF strike UAV activity confirmed. JUDGMENT: Indicates a new or expanded area of RUF aerial activity, requiring UAF AD attention. Confidence: HIGH.
Chuvashia (RU): New Update: TASS and RBK-Ukraina confirm a UAV attack on Cheboksary (Chuvashia). Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Chuvashia. New messages: RBK-Ukraina posts video of smoke plumes from explosions in Cheboksary, possibly near a botanical garden. ASTRA posts video of a UAV attack on Cheboksary near a large industrial building, confirming an aircraft visible before the explosion. ASTRA reports mobile internet disruptions in Cheboksary after UAV attack. ASTRA posts video confirming smoke plume near a factory in Cheboksary. ASTRA posts video of fire from Cheboksary UAV attack. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts multiple videos of explosions and smoke plumes in urban/industrial areas, including one showing an aircraft before explosion, captioned "Opa! Syuda letit, syuda letit ✈️" (It's flying here, it's flying here). ASTRA posts photos/videos of fire in Cheboksary, near Vutherm boiler factory, after UAV attack, and video of a large industrial fire. New message: TASS reports a UAV fell on the roof of a vacant building of VNIIR and a second drone damaged a warehouse under construction in Chuvashia, with no casualties. New message: ASTRA reports the head of Chuvashia confirmed the attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" in Cheboksary, noting that production has not been operating since a previous attack in June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts multiple videos confirming a large industrial fire with black smoke and an aerial event followed by an explosion in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, captioning it "Good drones visited Cheboksary, Chuvashia." New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that traffic has been blocked in Cheboksary near "VNIIR-Progress," and the governor has confirmed a UAV attack on the enterprise. FACT: UAV attack confirmed on Cheboksary. New messages confirm smoke plumes, explosions, and mobile internet disruptions. A video shows an aircraft prior to explosion near an industrial building. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ASTRA confirm large industrial fire in Cheboksary after UAV attack near Vutherm boiler factory. New message: TASS reports UAV fell on vacant VNIIR building and damaged a warehouse under construction. New message: ASTRA reports head of Chuvashia confirmed attack on JSC "VNIIR-Progress" and that production is still halted since June. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms large industrial fire and explosion in Cheboksary from UAVs. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports traffic blocked and UAV attack confirmed at VNIIR-Progress. JUDGMENT: This indicates an expanded geographical reach of UAF deep strikes into the Russian Federation, threatening areas previously considered secure, with confirmed impacts on urban and industrial targets. Confidence: HIGH.
Saratov Oblast (RU): New message: ASTRA reports UAV attack on a military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. ASTRA reports residents of Engels, Saratov Oblast, report attack on military airfield. New message: General Staff of UAF published infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: General Staff of UAF publishes infographic on naval activity from UAF Navy (03:32:14Z). New message: TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Saratov airport. FACT: UAV attack confirmed on military airfield in Engels, Saratov Oblast. Sirens heard. New message: UAF Navy infographic. New message: UAF Navy infographic. New message: Saratov airport restrictions lifted. JUDGMENT: This represents a significant deep strike by UAF against a high-value military target within Russia, potentially impacting long-range aviation assets. Confidence: HIGH.
Voronezh Oblast (RU): STERNENKO reports Voronezh as one of the Oblasts under "drone safety" alerts. RBK-Ukraina and ASTRA report drone attack and explosions in Borisoglebsk (Voronezh Oblast). RBK-Ukraina video shows lights/flares in sky over Borisoglebsk. Операция Z (Русской Весны) reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast. New message: ASTRA posts multiple photo messages and statements related to a fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast, citing NASA FIRMS (03:04:40Z, 03:04:41Z). RBK-Ukraina posts similar reports about the BorisoGlebsk fire (03:18:52Z, 03:18:53Z). New message: OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video and photos confirming a UAV strike on the RUF military airfield in BorisoGlebsk, Voronezh Oblast, with confirmed misses. New message: TASS reports that over 25 UAVs were destroyed in four districts of Voronezh Oblast last night, citing the governor. New message: ASTRA confirms that the governor of Voronezh Oblast reported more than 25 UAVs destroyed over four districts in the oblast last night. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: РБК-Україна posts photos reporting "SSO struck BorisoHlebsk airfield." New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts photos reporting "SSO struck BorisoHlebsk airfield." New message: STERNENKO posts photos reporting "General Staff: BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos reporting "BorisoHlebsk airfield struck." FACT: Drone safety/threat alert reported. Drone attack and explosions confirmed in Borisoglebsk, with visual evidence. New Update: RUF source reports enemy attacking Voronezh Oblast. New ASTRA and RBK-Ukraina reports confirm fire near BorisoGlebsk military airfield, cited by NASA FIRMS. OPERATYVNYI ZSU confirms strike on military airfield. New message: TASS and ASTRA report over 25 UAVs destroyed over Voronezh Oblast, confirming a massed UAF deep strike. New message: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS all confirm the strike on BorisoGlebsk airfield. JUDGMENT: Indicates UAF deep strike activity extending to Voronezh Oblast, expanding the geographical reach of UAF drone operations, with confirmed impacts on a military airfield. The massed nature of the attack (25+ UAVs) indicates a significant UAF effort. Confidence: HIGH.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RUF Dispositions:
Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures (extremist designations, legal proceedings, lawsuits against defense industry, new laws against "dropperism," fraud convictions like Ex-Deputy Head of Ministry of Emergency Situations Pavel Baryshev, journalist Alla Konstantinova declared wanted, arrest of Rumo JSC chairman, criminal cases against Svetlinsky mine top managers, Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan arrest, Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head deportation, fraud investigation of singer Larisa Dolina). The ongoing public mourning for Gudkov and the domestic impact of UAF UAV strikes on Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Vladimir, Ivanovo, and Chuvashia Oblasts (casualties, evacuations, significant fires, substation damage, widespread power outages, 33 injured in Izhevsk, 7 injured in Belgorod, chemical enterprise fire in Shebekino, 2 injured in Shebekino, 5 injured in Kharkiv) demonstrate increasing impact on Russian society and infrastructure. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more between 08:00 and 11:00 MSK, and 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol between 13:00 and 16:00 MSK, 16 more over Bryansk, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Oryol Oblasts between 16:00 and 18:00 MSK, 11 more over Bryansk Oblast, 3 more over Bryansk Oblast, now 94 total). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more recently, 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF propaganda attempts to highlight UAF defections (e.g., Aleksandr Postoenko). Mash on Donbas is advertising mobile internet in occupied Volnovakha. This is a control measure, enhancing communication and integration with Russian networks. RUF source "Рыбарь" expresses concern about "diversions or accidents" implying internal security issues or UAF deep strike effectiveness. The reported death of Transneft VP Badalov, whether accident or not, will be an internal security concern. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discussing Ukrainian special services' alleged recruitment of Russian population. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police raids on scooter/bicycle riders, indicating enhanced local security/control measures. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports imprisonment of two UAF "militants" for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating continued judicial control over alleged UAF actions. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat, indicating heightened security at critical industrial sites. Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares, possibly linked to internal economic or security issues. Romania's statement on no troops for Ukraine highlights RUF's ongoing attempts to influence NATO cohesion. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about the law protecting Russian language, emphasizing internal cultural control. Военкор Котенок highlighting the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case suggests an attempt to manage internal ethnic tensions. Kadyrov's meeting on Chechnya's socio-economic situation demonstrates C2 over internal regional governance. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warnings for threats in house chats, indicating extended control into domestic communication. TASS reports MoD statement on massed strikes in response to "terrorist acts" by Kyiv. TASS reports Peskov's statement on Putin telling Trump that Russia is waiting for Kyiv to agree on terms for a third round of negotiations. Alex Parker Returns claims "Boomerang has returned," a clear propaganda message regarding UAF deep strikes. TASS reports of rapper OG Buda fined for drug propaganda, indicating continued internal social control. TASS reports Medinsky statement on new history textbook cover promoting cooperation for Russia, indicating narrative control and shaping. A new prisoner exchange occurred with Russia returning personnel to Belarus. Two Majors photo message on "insiders" and "terrorism" indicates RUF internal security concerns and propaganda about internal threats. Rybar's video on anti-Russian activity by Azerbaijani deputies is propaganda highlighting geopolitical friction. Alex Parker Returns's post on Azerbaijani cultural head deportation is propaganda on internal control, which may also have international implications. MoD of Netherlands reports Russia increasing chemical weapons use in Ukraine, which is a significant international diplomatic issue. TASS reports EC presence at Euro Parliament hearings on Von der Leyen no confidence vote, attempting to highlight internal EU divisions. RBK-Ukraina reports Chinese consulate damaged in Odesa. ASTRA reports Czech Republic blackout. RBK-Ukraina reports EU is discussing 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which indicates continued international pressure. TASS reports on NBC News claim of US military aid halt to Ukraine was a unilateral decision by Pentagon head Hegset, which is a significant information point for international aid. TASS reports government suspended accrual of penalties on taxes/insurance for mobilized personnel. TASS reports blackout in Czech Republic was due to technical reasons. TASS reports SBU conducting agent work in Turkey. RBK-Ukraina reports German politician Merz suspects link between RUF attacks and Putin-Trump talks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Операция Z (Русской Весны) amplifying NBC News report about US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies to Ukraine, indicates a coordinated RUF attempt to undermine Western support. TASS posts photo about Elon Musk poll on creating new political party "America," indicating RUF attempts to use information operations on Western political divisions. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskiy and Trump discussed escalation of Russian strikes and air defense supplies, indicating continued diplomatic engagement for military support. OPERATYVNYI ZSU also reports further details from Zelenskiy's conversation with Trump, confirming focus on strengthening air defense. KVMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) also posts about Zelenskiy's conversation with Trump, confirming focus on strengthening air defense. STERNENKO reposts Zelenskiy's statement about the Trump call. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskiy and Trump agreed to work on strengthening protection of Ukrainian sky, signaling continued and possibly enhanced international military support. TASS and Colonelcassad report on the landing of a Russian IL-76MD with returned prisoners of war in Moscow Oblast, highlighting ongoing prisoner exchange agreements as a diplomatic channel. WarGonzo's discussion on Azerbaijan-Moscow relations and Karabakh in relation to Azerbaijani diaspora head's deportation highlights RUF's use of geopolitical events in information warfare. НгП раZVедка's video targeting Belarusians for donations is an attempt to sow discord, potentially impacting regional relations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's report on Ukraine mining western border (Fox News claim) is RUF propaganda aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts confirm a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr., indicating continued international engagement and support. STERNENKO predicts Trump will say something specific "in a couple of hours," highlighting attention on high-level political statements. RBK-Ukraina posts a video with an expert discussing an "unexpected reason" for the night attack on Kyiv, linking it to the US, which indicates a narrative attempting to explain complex geopolitical events to the public, potentially related to US aid discussions. Oleg Syniehubov posts photos related to a high-level dialogue on democratic governance in Ukraine. TASS reports on the rally for businessman Karapetyan in Yerevan, indicating continued international legal/political friction for Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump wants to help with PVO and check on supply suspension. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Germany is negotiating with US to purchase two Patriot systems for Ukraine. Старше Эдды provides geopolitical analysis on China's interests, implying China's interest in prolonged conflict. Рыбарь posts on "Морские границы по-турецки" showing geopolitical focus for RUF. Alex Parker Returns's analysis on Chechen financial dependency highlights internal financial distribution and potential international implications for RUF. RBK-Україна posts about a German bus accident with Ukrainian passengers, which is a humanitarian incident that could draw international attention. ASTRA posts photo confirming Zelenskiy and Trump phone call after Putin. RBK-Ukraina posts video of Zelenskiy confirming exchange of prisoners. RBK-Ukraina shows SBU exclusive photos/videos from prisoner exchange. TASS video shows rally in Yerevan for Karapetyan. TASS confirms Poland sent a diplomatic note to Russia regarding damage to its consulate in Kyiv, indicating ongoing diplomatic fallout from RUF strikes. Rybar posts about "Israel in every home," indicating a broader geopolitical focus outside Ukraine conflict. WarGonzo posts new details on US strikes on Iran, showing a GBU-57 MOP bomb test, indicating RUF's use of international military events for propaganda and to highlight Western military capabilities. Kotsnews posts a social media poll showing significant public support for closing all Azerbaijani markets and restaurants in Russia, indicating xenophobic sentiment amplified by RUF media. Alex Parker Returns posts a tweet discussion from a removed Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head, indicating continued RUF efforts to manage internal ethnic issues and use information for control. Alex Parker Returns video of an injured soldier with a grim caption is a clear example of RUF psychological warfare. Colonelcassad posts photo messages claiming Iran received J-10C fighter jets from China. RBK-Ukraina video features an expert discussing why Trump is unlikely to pressure Putin until autumn. TASS reports Russian Ambassador summoned to Armenian MFA for protest note regarding "statements" from Russia on Armenian internal political processes. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added Lithuanian and German organizations to the undesirable list. TASS reports Russian government included bananas in the list of Russian agricultural products. Alex Parker Returns posts a video with caption "Обратите внимание на зубы." Medvev posts patriotic photos and text. RBK-Ukraina posts photo messages indicating Trump may resume Patriot missile supplies after his call with Zelenskiy, quoting Reuters. Two Majors post "Kyrgyzstan", which is very vague but could refer to a diplomatic/geopolitical development. ASTRA reports Netherlands intelligence states Russia is systematically using chemical weapons in Ukraine, with a drone video showing an illumination flare. Старше Эдды (RUF source) expresses skepticism about reports of US stopping arms supplies to Ukraine, stating such "nonsense" often appears without basis. This indicates RUF is attempting to manage information flow related to Western aid. TASS reports Mark Snow (Secret Materials composer) died, which is non-military. Новости Москвы reports Russia will start growing bananas, also non-military. TASS reports Meloni's statement on US arms supplies to Ukraine, aiming to reassure. RBK-Ukraina posts photos of Macron and Starmer forming a coalition for "pacification forces" in Ukraine. TASS reports a Washington Post foreign policy observer, Lee Hockstader, believes the pause in US arms supplies to Kyiv increases the chances of its defeat, a direct RUF propaganda message aimed at undermining international support. TASS reports Hamas has given a positive response to the latest Gaza proposal and is ready to start negotiations, indicating RUF is monitoring and reporting on international diplomatic developments outside Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina reports Meloni denied the US halted military aid to Ukraine, but rather cancelled separate categories of aid. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this, emphasizing the distinction. "Новости Москвы" posts video of a "Festival of Light" in Moscow, civilian content showing normal life. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with xenophobic content, aimed at "Ukrainians." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of a banking app, likely demonstrating fundraising for UAF. RBK-Ukraina reports Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza, which is an international diplomatic development that RUF will exploit. TASS reports a new law on criminal liability for "dropperism" effective July 5th. Alex Parker Returns posts a video implying Belarusians are "stingy" in their donations. TASS reports Slovakia again blocked new EU sanctions against Russia. RBK-Ukraina reports Trump signed a "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill. Операция Z (Русской Весны) claims "Ресурс зенитных установок типа "Гепард" и других в Киеве практически исчерпан, - депутат Рады", this is a new RUF propaganda narrative. TASS reports information on annulled visas for foreigners will be transferred to the migration registration system to prevent their illegal return to the Russian Federation, indicating tighter immigration controls. New Update: Операция Z posts photos of the Cossack reconnaissance brigade "Terek" receiving a banner from the President with "With God," this is a direct propaganda photo of high-level recognition for a specific unit, promoting internal cohesion and unit pride. Полиция Хабаровского края posts civilian photos, which means RUF channels are still carrying irrelevant content, but it is low impact. Further Update: TASS confirms arrest extension for Vladimir Pavlov, head of "Voentorg", on fraud charges. New messages: Colonelcassad posts interview of a 71-year-old woman from Sudzha, Kursk region, alleging looting and destruction by Ukrainian forces. RBK-Ukraina reports Slovakia has blocked the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia for the second time. TASS reports over 50 flights delayed at Pulkovo airport due to UAV attack. ASTRA corroborates Pulkovo flight delays due to UAV attack. New message: TASS reports court arrested 315 million rubles and shares in "Rusagro" from Vadim Moshkovich in fraud case. TASS reports Pulkovo airport restrictions lifted. Операция Z posts photo/text claiming increasing tension between Turkey and Israel. TASS posts photo message claiming Trump contributes to Russian victory by stopping arms supplies to Kyiv, citing The Spectator. New message: TASS reports that Trump believes the situation around Ukraine is very difficult. New message: TASS reports that Macron's call to Putin is ancknowledgment that world politics needs Russia. New message: RBK-Ukraina reports IAEA has pulled all inspectors from Iran for the first time in 20 years. New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos about Macron and Starmer forming a coalition for "pacification forces" in Ukraine. New message: Басурин о главном posts a video (likely historical or propaganda) about a Russian naval figure, emphasizing patriotism and glory. This is a recurring RUF propaganda theme. New message: RBK-Ukraina provides a summary of news for the night, including a photo message. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Trump signing a bill, which is non-military, but indicates a focus on US political developments. New message: ТАСС reports Trump does not rule out that the US will continue to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, including Patriot systems. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: RBK-Ukraina posts video of Trump commenting on his conversation with Putin regarding new sanctions against Russia. New message: ТАСС reports that several UAF soldiers fled before being sent to positions in Sumy Oblast, citing a Russian prisoner of war (Alexander). This is a RUF propaganda piece aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and portraying UAF as having low morale. New message: Операция Z posts a video featuring Donald Trump discussing sanctions. This is RUF propaganda seeking to influence perceptions of international support for Ukraine. New message: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts an infographic on the number of enemy UAVs neutralized (292). This serves as a UAF public information message on AD effectiveness. New message: РБК-Україна posts an infographic stating Russia launched 322 drones last night. This is a UAF aligned information update, conveying the scale of RUF attacks. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts an infographic summarizing that 292/322 enemy UAVs were neutralized. This is a UAF allied source providing BDA for AD. Confidence: HIGH.
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Reinforced Ground Offensives (Donetsk): RUF will maintain its high-intensity offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Huliaipole axes, attempting to exploit any perceived UAF weakness or diversion of resources due to the deep strikes and the new Sumy/Kharkiv fronts. Integrated drone, air (FAB, KAB), and thermobaric (TOS-1A) support for ground units will continue. RUF will continue attempts to eliminate UAF mortar positions, EW stations, and logistics, including further strikes on UAF supply lines. Expect continued RUF use of tactical UAVs in Donetsk Oblast, and intensified ground assaults across the entire Donetsk front. RUF will continue targeting UAF artillery assets and attempting to clear pockets of resistance (e.g., Malynivka-Myroliubivka) and seize settlements (e.g., Predtechyno, Melove, Stroevka, Alekseevka in Sumy, Voskresenka) and gain control of key microdistricts (e.g., Kanal in Chasiv Yar, Levanevskogo, Novokselivske). RUF will also deploy new munitions/capabilities like "Chernika" loitering munitions. RUF will continue to attempt to target and destroy UAF command elements (e.g. 110th Brigade command, 8th Combined Arms Army, 20th Motorized Rifle Division CPs). Expect continued RUF propaganda on tactical gains (e.g. Pokrovsk). RUF tactical aviation will continue KAB launches in Donetsk. RUF will continue targeting UAF equipment near Kupiansk, including armored vehicles like the PBV302, MaxxPro, and HMMWV/howitzers. RUF will continue discussions on strategic targets like Dnipro bridges. RUF will continue to attempt to demoralize UAF units through intercepted radio traffic and propaganda. RUF will deploy armored trains in contested areas, such as near Pokrovsk. RUF will continue to use Grad MLRS. Colonelcassad's "Rubikon" video suggests continued RUF ground operations and targeting. RUF claims of 110th Mechanized Brigade staff destruction will likely be reiterated. RUF will consolidate gains near Konstantinovka, attempting to push forward. Continued focus on Siversk is likely. RUF will continue to engage UAF armored vehicles and infantry with FPV drones. RUF will conduct demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River. RUF will continue FPV drone operations in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF ground units will continue to operate and be ambushed in areas like Pokrovsk. RUF will continue large caliber bombardment, as seen in НгП раZVедка video. RUF will continue efforts to push in the Siversk-Hryhorivka direction, as indicated by new tactical maps. RUF will attempt tactical maneuvers, such as crossing water bodies (e.g., Kakhovka reservoir) to attack from flanks, to bypass UAF defenses. RUF will prioritize destroying UAF ground robotic complexes, especially those used for evacuation, to impede UAF medical and support efforts. RUF will continue to highlight concerns about UAF manpower shortages on the Pokrovsk axis through intercepted communications. RUF will intensify efforts to disrupt UAF logistics in Kupiansk and seek to encircle the city. New message: General Staff of UAF provides updated operational information for all directions. New message: "Воин DV" posts video showing 36th Army UAV operators hitting a UAF howitzer with several FPV drones. New message: Операция Z posts video (from RUF "Военкоры Русской Весны") claiming 103rd Regiment advancing on Konstantinovka, destroying NATO equipment and enemy infantry. New message: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video titled "Сбор для Десантников🪂" showing four individuals in military attire, with a Ukrainian flag visible on one, appealing for donations for a vehicle. This contradicts the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" sender name and aligns with UAF fundraising efforts. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a short text message, "Знаете, почему атеистов почти не встретить в окопах? Потому что война — чистилище, а душе человека быть без помощи Свыше в таком дыхании ада никак невозможно.", a piece of RUF propaganda to promote religious faith among soldiers. Confidence: HIGH.
Escalation of Sumy/Kharkiv Probing Attacks with Air Support and Buffer Zone Creation: RUF will escalate probing attacks and air/artillery strikes along the Sumy border and continue KAB and UAV strikes on Kharkiv to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian reserves, potentially expanding the Ryzhivka salient or opening additional limited axes. This would be synchronized with a commitment of operational reserves to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, or a significant push in the newly declared Belgorod buffer zone area. The confirmed KAB usage and accompanying propaganda suggest a shaping operation for a larger offensive is plausible. Expect continued efforts to disrupt UAF logistics in Kharkiv (e.g., Oskil crossings). Expect continued tactical aviation strikes in these areas. RUF will continue limited pressure in Kherson. RUF will continue reconnaissance UAV flights in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RUF will also attempt to counter UAF drone operations in Kharkiv (e.g., air-to-air FPV drone engagements). RUF Foreign Ministry will continue to link the buffer zone length to UAF long-range weapons use. RUF tactical aviation will continue activity in the northeastern direction. RUF focus on Kharkiv is evident in Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's photo. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦's video indicates UAF is prepared to counter these efforts. RUF will likely continue training for a Dnipro crossing operation, as indicated by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС. RUF will continue demining operations in the Dnipro River area of Kherson Oblast. RUF will continue ground advances in Kharkiv Oblast. RUF tactical aviation will continue KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. RUF will continue to conduct probing attacks and reconnaissance-in-force operations in Zaporizhzhia, assessed as fixing operations. RUF will continue to target energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with UAF deep strikes, leading to power outages. TASS reports UAF are asking their command to prepare for the defense of Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv Oblast after RUF liberated Melove. This implies a RUF intent to continue pushing in the Kharkiv direction. New message: Operatsiya Z reports Russian forces have taken Melove in Kharkiv Oblast to expand their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River. New message: General Staff of UAF provides updated operational information for all directions. New message: Oleg Syniehubov reports 6 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ reports 11 injured, including 2 children, from a massed UAV strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. New message: TASS reports that several UAF soldiers fled before being sent to positions in Sumy Oblast, citing a Russian prisoner of war (Alexander). This is a RUF propaganda piece aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and portraying UAF as having low morale. Confidence: HIGH.
Information Warfare Amplification and Internal Management: RUF will continue to heavily promote its perceived successes in deep strikes and ground operations through state media and Telegram channels, aiming to demoralize Ukraine and project strength domestically and internationally. They will likely continue to acknowledge UAF deep strikes on Russian territory but frame them as failures or limited successes, emphasizing high interception rates (e.g., 48 UAVs, 6 more recently, 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol, 16 more over Bryansk, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Oryol, 11 more over Bryansk Oblast, 3 more over Bryansk Oblast, now 94 UAVs shot down), even as widespread airport closures indicate significant impact. Internal security measures and propaganda will continue to manage domestic discontent and internal issues within Russia (e.g., combating "dropperism," managing deaths of high-profile individuals like Badalov, suppressing perceived terror plots, prosecuting individuals for financing UAF, heightened security at industrial sites like KAMAZ, managing ethnic tensions, addressing medical staff shortages, legal threats for online comments, social control via fines like rapper OG Buda, prosecuting ex-officials for fraud, MTS outages, mine managers/businessman arrests, Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head deportation, Rumo JSC chairman arrest, fraud investigation of singer Larisa Dolina, alleged CIA influence on Russian artists, traffic police raids, Telegram/WhatsApp outages, mobile signal reduction due to UAV threats). RUF media will continue to disseminate narratives about international diplomatic engagement (e.g., Putin-Trump, Macron-Putin) to influence perceptions. RUF will also continue efforts to enhance its own drone capabilities and implement new counter-UAV tactics (e.g., "Incubator 3.0", "Sarmat-Mgla", "Chernika", new dirt bikes) and EW systems, and their FPV drone air-to-air capabilities. RUF mobile observation posts, analysis of captured NATO equipment, and ongoing intelligence collection will inform future targeting. RUF will continue to monitor and report on naval activity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. New message: RBK-Ukraina provides a summary of news for the night, including a photo message. New message: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts a video of Trump signing a bill, which is non-military, but indicates a focus on US political developments. New message: General Staff of UAF provides updated operational information for all directions. New message: ТАСС reports Trump does not rule out that the US will continue to supply air defense systems to Ukraine, including Patriot systems. New message: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of Trump stating "Putin wants to go to the end and just continue killing people." New message: RBK-Ukraina posts video of Trump commenting on his conversation with Putin regarding new sanctions against Russia. New message: Рыбарь reports South Korea is increasing purchases of Russian LNG in May 2025. New message: «Зона СВО» posts photo message with a political statement from a commander prior to the "Potok" operation in Kursk. New message: Военкор Котенок posts a short text message to promote religious faith among soldiers. New message: Операция Z posts a photo message and a video from "Военкоры Русской Весны" about President Trump signing a new tax reform bill, indicating RUF's continued focus on US internal politics, likely to influence perceptions of US support for Ukraine. New message: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video featuring Donald Trump commenting on sanctions, likely focusing on his hardline stance. This is a UAF channel highlighting perceived inconsistencies or negative aspects of Trump's statements from a Ukrainian perspective. Confidence: HIGH.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Successes:
Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
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