Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. Enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south. KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 26 casualties in Kyiv as of 0937Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. Partial traffic disruption confirmed. Severe structural damage to residential buildings, including a multi-story building engulfed in fire, confirmed by multiple sources. RBK-Ukraina reports 5 ambulances damaged in Kyiv due to the night attack, with no medical personnel casualties. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0543Z. Threat of collapse in a damaged five-story building in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv, reported. KVMVA states 550 air attack assets were launched by Russia against Ukraine, with almost all targeting Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports KVMVA statement re: "one of the largest combined attacks." OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports over 20 damaged locations and over 20 casualties in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos of significant damage from night attacks in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged Nova Poshta branches in Kyiv. Damaged book publishing warehouse "Nash Format" in Kyiv confirmed. Polish consulate in Kyiv was damaged during massed strike. RUF MoD claims a massed strike by RF Aerospace Forces on military infrastructure in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged DTEK equipment and destroyed two transformer substations in Kyiv during the attack. Basurin o Glavnom posts video claiming "Kyiv underground" destroyed a UAF vehicle "in broad daylight," showing a burning vehicle. KVMVA reports a fatality found in Sviatoshynskyi district during cleanup. RBK-Ukraina also reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Tsaplienko also reports at least one fatality in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports circular electric train traffic has been restored in Kyiv. ASTRA reports a civilian fatality in Kyiv. KVMVA posts video confirming damage to a fire-rescue unit, windows blown out, facade damaged, but no personnel casualties. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts photo message indicating several "Gerbera" (likely Shahed) drones shot down over Kyiv had cameras, CRPA antennas, and radio modems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates this information, claiming these were shot down overnight. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and that UAF believes RUF has repeaters near Kyiv to extend range to Bryansk Oblast. Oleksii Biloshytskyi posts video highlighting night attacks on Kyiv. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of a damaged Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River near Kyiv. KVMVA posts new photo messages of damaged buildings and vehicles in Kyiv, underscoring the "terrorist act" by Russia. РБК-Україна posts police footage from night in Kyiv showing "All in shelter! Lie down!" commands and emergency response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming to show the moment a drone hit a residential building in Kyiv. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo message "Удар по Киеву – город в дыму," confirming visual effects of the strike. Alex Parker Returns video showing explosion with mushroom cloud and agricultural sprayer vehicle, captioned "У хохлов это обычный четверг." This appears to be a RUF BDA video for a target in Ukraine, but the location is not specified beyond "Ukraine" (У хохлов). The presence of the agricultural sprayer suggests a civilian or dual-use target. This video does not contradict prior Kyiv reporting but represents a separate, likely significant, impact. RBK-Ukraina video featuring Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones during the night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms SBU detained a spotter who was guiding missiles and drones to Kyiv. Colonelcassad video shows a damaged fixed-wing drone, resembling a "Gerbera," floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv, which RUF claims is a decoy. РБК-Україна reports RUF launched "Shaheds" from multiple directions. **FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, significantly increased civilian casualties (up to 26 wounded), a confirmed fatality in Sviatoshynskyi district, damaged railway infrastructure, damaged DTEK equipment, and destroyed two transformer substations confirmed in Kyiv. A residential house in Hatne was hit by a drone. Civilians are sheltering in metro stations. Traffic disruptions and widespread smoke confirmed. Emergency services are actively engaged in BDA and fire suppression across multiple districts, utilizing aviation. New video/photo evidence confirms severe structural damage to residential buildings, including damage to Nova Poshta branches and a book publishing warehouse. 5 ambulances were damaged. Threat of collapse in Solomyanskyi district. RUF claims strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport. KVMVA confirms "one of the largest combined attacks" with 550 air attack assets launched against Ukraine, majority targeting Kyiv. Consequences are being fixed in three Kyiv districts. KVMDA claims low air pollution. Polish consulate was damaged. RUF propaganda highlights air quality issues in Kyiv and expresses satisfaction with the strikes. RUF MoD claims confirm intent to hit military and strategic infrastructure. Damage to a fire-rescue unit is a direct strike on emergency services, compounding the humanitarian impact. The increase in casualties and the confirmed fatality underscores the severity of the attack. Damage to DTEK equipment and substations indicates targeting of energy infrastructure. The claimed "Kyiv underground" attack on a UAF vehicle is RUF disinformation aiming to portray internal resistance within Ukraine, but lacks credible verification. Restoration of circular electric train traffic demonstrates UAF resilience in restoring critical infrastructure. Discovery of Chinese components in Geranium UAVs highlights international supply chain for RUF military hardware. The advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (Gerbera) indicate RUF is using them not just for strike but also for reconnaissance and targeting updates, a notable tactical evolution. Alex Parker Returns's claim regarding new reconnaissance drones and UAF assessment of repeaters supports the UAF reporting on the ISR capabilities of downed Shaheds and and confirms the RUF intent to use these drones for advanced reconnaissance. Downed Shahed drone confirmed in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. KVMVA's new photos reinforce the severe damage and frame it as a "terrorist act." Police footage and drone strike video confirm continued intense civilian impact and emergency response. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ photo further corroborates widespread smoke in Kyiv. Alex Parker Returns video shows large explosion/mushroom cloud with an agricultural sprayer, likely from a RUF strike in Ukraine, though location unspecified. Zelenskiy confirms dozens of Shaheds shot down by interceptor drones. SBU detained a spotter in Kyiv. New video confirms damaged "Gerbera" drone in Dnipro. RUF launched Shaheds from multiple directions. Confidence: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykhalchyna Sloboda of Chernihiv region. General Staff of UAF posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag erected on the border with Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF destroying a RUF flag on the border. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Chernihiv Oblast. FACT: 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykhalchyna Sloboda. UAF destroyed a RUF flag on the border. RUF UAV active in Chernihiv Oblast. JUDGMENT: RUF continues to use tactical aviation for strikes near border areas. UAF maintains active counter-reconnaissance/symbolic actions in border areas. Continued RUF UAV activity indicates ongoing reconnaissance/strike intent. New video corroborates UAF action. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. Confidence: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties in Kryvyi Rih (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetropak RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the afternoon/evening. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (previously 7). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports RUF combat losses as 1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, and 3 special equipment units in the last day. **FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers (previously reported 6 total, new report confirms 2 injured civilian infrastructure strike). High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts confirming a visit from a US delegation. Blackout at ZNPP confirmed. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on generators. New strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih confirmed, with preliminary 2 injured (now updated to 3 injured). RUF confirms new strike on Kryvyi Rih. New RUF UAV activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. Alex Parker Returns and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 videos corroborate large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kherson, Nikopol, and Kryvyi Rih, including damaged SUV and residential buildings. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 1x fatality in Vasylivskyi district. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 7 more RUF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBK-Ukraina reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. New video confirms Shahed hit on Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports significant RUF combat losses (1120 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 112 vehicles, 3 special equipment units). Confidence: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. WarGonzo map indicates continued advances in the Chasiv Yar direction and claims for control of the Kanal microdistrict. WarGonzo also claims "liberation of Yablonovka" near Andriivka, indicating continued engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators destroying UAF strongpoints and technical means in the Huliaipole direction, specifically claiming destruction of a Ukrainian EW station. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast at 0538Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka of Donetsk region. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Myrne, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Razine, Promin, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Dachne and towards Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka, Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka in Pokrovsk direction yesterday. Clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Orikhiv direction. Clashes yesterday near Novozlatopil in Huliaipole direction. Clashes yesterday near Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Katerynivka in Toretsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Vyyimka, Serebryanka and Fedorivka in Siversk direction. Clashes yesterday near Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyny, Torske, Nadiya and towards Serebryanka, Dronivka and Shandryholove in Lyman direction. RUF source "Операция Z" claims a "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk (RUF claims against UAF rear bases). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video showing "FABing" in the Piddubne area by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army. TASS claims Russian forces cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade worked against enemy personnel and equipment in Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) posts video claiming destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims new targets hit in "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from Donetsk into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims " уточнение после удара по 110-й мехбригаде ВСУ" (clarification after strike on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade) with photo messages implying successful strike. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims "Армия России уничтожила всё командование 110-й бригады ВСУ одним ударом" (Russian Army destroyed entire command of UAF 110th Brigade with one strike). TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Военкор Котенок also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Операция Z also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact in Kramatorsk with photos showing smoke and damaged buildings, implying a strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk region. TASS reports UAF struck western Donetsk, with preliminary reports of casualties and 4 wounded. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio traffic from 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk area. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports UAF shelling of western Donetsk, with some targets intercepted by PVO. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports PVO working in Donetsk and a missile strike by UAF on western districts of DNR capital, claiming civilian casualties. Mash na Donbasse video claims UAF struck Petrovka in Donetsk, with preliminary 4 injured and some deceased. ASTRA video also shows damage in Trudovskoy village, western occupied Donetsk, due to UAF strike. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports liberation of Predtechyno in DNR. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition states 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Colonelcassad posts video showing destruction of a UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar on minefields. TASS posts video showing aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of occupied Donetsk. WarGonzo reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF shelling. Basurin o Glavnom posts video showing aftermath in western Donetsk from UAF strike, with claims of 4 dead, 4 wounded. Voenkor Kotenok posts video showing damage in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed." The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV activity in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving southwest. Mash na Donbasse reports 4 fatalities in Petrovka from explosions. Basurin o Glavnom discusses why bridges across the Dnieper are still intact. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.2025: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RUF WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia, showing thermal imaging of a strike. Colonelcassad reports a night optical fiber drone hit a Swedish armored personnel carrier PBV302, filled with UAF infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with aggressive propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed," with an implication to Konstantinovka to "prepare." Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage showing military vehicles and positions, including Oshkosh M-ATV and BBM, with engagements and explosions, identified as "Donbas. Rubicon is working." Basurin o Glavnom repeats the claim that an "Iskander" strike on Huliaipole destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. TASS reports that RUF forces are approximately 3km from Konstantinovka (Donetsk) after liberating Predtechyno. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming "Wartime" operators working in Krasnoarmiisk direction, showing a damaged multi-story building. RUF "Воин DV" posts video showing FAB strikes by 11th Army Air Force and Air Defense Army near Voskresenka, claiming ground group advances. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts map claiming "04.07.25 Chasiv Yar - Levanevskogo," suggesting RUF presence or control. MoD Russia posts video "Msta-S self-propelled artillery system (Tsentr Group of Forces) destroys AFU firing position in Krasnoarmeysk direction," confirming artillery use. Colonelcassad posts video and photos of "Последствия прилета ракеты РСЗО «HIMARS» с шрапнельной боевой частью перед АС «Трудовская» в Петровском районе Донецка," confirming UAF HIMARS strike and casualties. Alex Parker Returns posts photos and text "По Донецку нанесен удар HIMARS. Четверо погибших. В последние дни хохлы значительно активизировали удары по Донецку и Луганску. Используют HIMARS и ракеты Storm Shadow," corroborating UAF HIMARS strikes and confirming fatalities in Donetsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message "Краснолиманское направление," indicating ongoing focus on this axis. Colonelcassad video indicates tactical successes and active combat in the Siversk direction, showing drone footage of artillery/mortar strikes in a wooded area. RUF WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on enemy personnel from the 36th Guards Brigade. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition photo message shows consequences of a strike (likely UAF) on a civilian object in Shebekino, Belgorod. WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry, specifically a MaxxPro MRAP. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows destruction of a concealed position, likely a RUF "quadrober" (quadcopter user) or small structure. РБК-Україна reports UAF struck the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows the aftermath of a suspected missile strike on a multi-story residential building, claiming "ВСУ продолжает расстреливать дома гражданских." **FACT: High-intensity combat continues in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. RUF claims of destroying UAF EW station in Huliaipole direction. Renewed UAV threat for Donetsk Oblast. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Sustained clashes reported across multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation confirmed in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, specifically in Piddubne. RUF claims pocket cleared between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims 14th Spetsnaz struck Karla Marksa. RUF claims destruction of UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims strikes on Kramatorsk and a successful strike on the UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade, claiming destruction of its command. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno in DNR (Konstantinovka direction). Colonelcassad shows photos of significant impact in Kramatorsk. RUF video claims UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery. UAF struck western Donetsk with preliminary casualties (4 wounded, 4 deceased), confirmed by RUF and ASTRA. RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. RUF claims advance towards Pokrovsk. New KAB launches in Donetsk Oblast. TASS video shows aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA confirms 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district. WarGonzo confirms 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district. Basurin o Glavnom video and Voenkor Kotenok video corroborate damage and casualties in Petrovsky district. Alex Parker Returns claims Predtechyno liberation and UAF front collapse near Konstantinovka. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV activity in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving southwest. Mash na Donbasse reports 4 fatalities in Petrovka from explosions. Basurin o Glavnom discusses Dnipro bridges. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 27 attacks in Pokrovsk direction (14 ongoing), 10 in Kramatorsk (6 ongoing), 5 in Toretsk (3 ongoing), 7 in Kurakhove (4 ongoing), 10 in Orikhiv, 7 in Huliaipole, 1 in Velyka Novosilka, 12 in Lyman (3 ongoing), 10 in Kupyansk (4 ongoing). WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad reports an FPV drone hit on a Swedish PBV302 APC, loaded with infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches in Donetsk. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk with propaganda message. Alex Parker Returns claims "Slavno" and for Konstantinovka to "prepare." Colonelcassad posts drone footage showing military vehicles and positions, including Oshkosh M-ATV and BBM, with engagements and explosions, identified as "Donbas. Rubicon is working." Basurin o Glavnom reiterates the claim that an "Iskander" strike on Huliaipole destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. TASS reports RUF is 3km from Konstantinovka. Colonelcassad's new video confirms FPV drone success against UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, in the Kharkiv direction. New RUF video claims work in Krasnoarmiisk area with a damaged building. New RUF video shows FAB strikes near Voskresenka with claimed ground advances. New RUF map suggests presence in Chasiv Yar - Levanevskogo area. MoD Russia video confirms Msta-S artillery use in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad video/photos and Alex Parker Returns photos/text confirm UAF HIMARS strike on Donetsk, with 4 fatalities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo indicates continued RUF focus on Krasnolimansky direction. Colonelcassad video shows active combat/tactical successes in Siversk direction. WarGonzo video shows 36th Guards Brigade FPV drone strikes on personnel. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows impact in Shebekino, Belgorod. WarGonzo video shows FPV drone strikes on UAF armored vehicles and infantry. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Donetsk Oblast. Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows destruction of a concealed position, likely a RUF drone operator. UAF confirmed successful strike on command posts of 8th Combined Arms Army and 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad video shows a damaged residential building, with audio suggesting an incoming missile, claimed as UAF shelling civilians. Confidence: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." WarGonzo map for Sumy direction shows enemy advances near Ryzhivka, confirming continued pressure. Rybar (RUF source) provides animated map, claiming counter-battery fire and tactical advances in Sumy direction, specifically around Andriivka, Kondratovka, and Yuganovka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novomutyn of Sumy region. UAF repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction yesterday. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo with the caption "04.07.25 Сумы - Новониколаевка", implying active engagement in the area. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts drone video of an artillery strike in the Sumy direction, near Andriivka. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on northern Sumy Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, warning Myhorod. RBK-Ukraina confirms UAF Air Force report of high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, warning Myhorod to take cover. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo message "03.07.25 Сумы - Алексеевка", implying active engagement in the area and RUF control. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. TASS reports two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Moskalkova hopes Kyiv will fulfill its promise regarding the return of residents of Kursk border areas displaced to Sumy Oblast. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports on the prisoner exchange, stating two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast, and 30 Russian citizens remain in Ukraine. ASTRA confirms two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast. TASS posts video featuring Moskalkova discussing the prisoner exchange and human rights, referencing a Geneva convention. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RUF PVO destroyed 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. FACT: RUF probing attacks and KAB usage confirmed. RUF sources claim advances near Ryzhivka and other border settlements. 1x airstrike confirmed in Novomutyn. UAF repelled 16 assaults. RUF reports active engagement in Novomykolaivka and Alekseevka, Sumy region. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Sumy Oblast. New KAB launches reported. Artillery strike confirmed in Andriivka area. Renewed RUF UAV activity in northern Sumy Oblast and generally in the oblast. UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina confirm high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, course southwest, warning Myhorod. UAF Air Force confirms renewed KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast engaged. Two residents of Kursk Oblast were returned from Sumy Oblast as part of a prisoner exchange, as reported by TASS, Moskalkova, Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, and ASTRA. New TASS video shows Moskalkova discussing the return of Kursk Oblast residents. JUDGMENT: Sumy Oblast remains an active, new offensive axis for RUF, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. UAF is actively defending and repelling multiple assaults. RUF is conducting reconnaissance and using KABs and artillery to support these efforts. The high-speed target indicates continued missile/aircraft threat to deeper areas of Sumy Oblast. RUF claims on Alekseevka suggest territorial gains. Renewed UAV activity indicates sustained pressure. The prisoner exchange involving Sumy Oblast indicates ongoing humanitarian efforts related to border region residents. New UAV activity confirmed in Sumy Oblast. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat on Poltava Oblast. RUF PVO claimed destruction of 3 UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, indicating ongoing UAF deep strikes against Russian border regions. Confidence: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. UAF Air Force reports "Kharkiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs" at 0523Z. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs over eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west, at 0532Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Ambarne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka in Kupyansk direction. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv RMA, provides video and photo updates on the aftermath of strikes, consistent with previous reports of damages and ongoing emergency response. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Colonelcassad reports 5 enemy UAVs destroyed by FPV drones "VT-40" in Kharkiv direction. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo of engagement in Kupyansk - Peschanoye direction. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims "Chernika" loitering munitions were used for the first time against targets in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos with the caption "Наші люди вдома. Більшість із них перебувала в російському полоні ще з 2022 року," related to a prisoner exchange. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Kharkiv Oblast. OTU "Kharkiv" posts photos with the same caption about "Our people are home." Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z posts photo message claiming RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka, creating another Kharkiv bridgehead. "Зона СВО" posts video claiming destruction of fortified enemy positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState posts map showing the situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) posts a video claiming destruction of UAF equipment in Kupiansk by "Groza" system. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message captioned "Харьковское направление," which does not include additional text, indicating continued RUF focus on this area. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video featuring Ukrainian soldiers undergoing training, including firearms, anti-tank grenade launcher use, and discussion of combat stress, emphasizing combat readiness. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos regarding a high-level dialogue on democratic governance in Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts new video from Kharkiv direction claiming FPV drones "KVN" and "VT-40" hit UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV towing a howitzer, with visual evidence of destroyed vehicles. Oleg Syniehubov posts a video titled "Today, on the occasion of the Day of the National Police of Ukraine, I presented state awards to our police officers." This is a public event focused on morale and recognition, not immediate battlefield geometry. The content is similar to one posted by Zelenskiy/Official and does not provide new information on force dispositions or battlefield geometry. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAV threat on Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z posts video of a MaxxPro MRAP hit in the 36th Army's area of responsibility. Операция Z (Русской Весны) posts a map claiming "Армия России наступает в Харьковская области, продвигаясь на ряде участков," implying ground advances. FACT: KAB usage confirmed. RUF claim of striking Oskil river crossings. Renewed UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. 9 settlements struck. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Clashes reported near Vovchansk and Ambarne. Renewed UAV threat in Northern/Eastern Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims destruction of 5 UAF FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims engagement near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov's posts confirm a prisoner exchange involving Kharkiv Oblast personnel. Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z claims RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka. "Зона СВО" video claims destruction of UAF positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState map shows situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports continued UAV threat. Операция Z video claims destruction of UAF equipment near Kupiansk. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia's video on EW activity further confirms RUF's focus on countering UAF drones and protecting their ground movements in conflict areas, potentially the Kharkiv axis. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message indicates continued RUF attention on the Kharkiv direction. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 video indicates UAF is actively engaged in maintaining high levels of combat readiness for ground forces in the Kharkiv area. Oleg Syniehubov's photos are civilian content showing a political/diplomatic meeting. Colonelcassad's new video confirms FPV drone strikes on UAF equipment, including a US HMMWV and a towed howitzer in the Kharkiv direction, a tactical success for RUF. Oleg Syniehubov's video is a formal ceremony, not battlefield information. New UAF Air Force alert confirms continued UAV threat. New RUF video shows a MaxxPro MRAP hit. New RUF map claims ground advances in Kharkiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage, airstrikes, clashes, UAV threat, UAF equipment losses), MEDIUM (Melove/Stroevka liberation claim, Oskil strikes, "Chernika" claim - no UAF confirmation).
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 04.07.25. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (mopeds). Oleksandr Vilkul reports an explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of explosions in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. RUF claims new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih with "Geraniums" without AD opposition. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms UAV hit Kryvyi Rih causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 6 men injured in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video and claims it's the first time a glide bomb hit Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. RBK-Ukraina reports full restoration of high-speed tram movement in Kryvyi Rih. Олександр Вілкул posts multiple photo messages indicating a formal ceremony, likely awards or recognition within a domestic setting. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. Олександр Вілкул reports impact on civilian infrastructure. РБК-Україна confirms strike on civilian infrastructure, with preliminary 2 injured. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming new strike on Kryvyi Rih causing smoke plume. Colonelcassad reports "Geranium" raids in Kryvyi Rih during the day, in addition to massed night attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message "Удар в Кривому Розі: поранено двох людей, пошкоджено цивільний об'єкт." Alex Parker Returns posts video "Кривой Рог. Чугуний попал в кадр. Пролетел более 100 км и попал точно в цель. Быть добру!" confirming an impact and large smoke plume in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. RBK-Ukraina confirms three wounded in Kryvyi Rih, one severe, two moderate. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video "ВС РФ нанесли удар по Кривому Рогу," showing a large smoke plume. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror continues in Kherson, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings and describing a child with a headache. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih (1 severe, 3 moderate, 3 light), previously 7. RBK-Україна reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing a Shahed drone hitting Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih for the second time in a day, confirming photos of damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos with the caption "❗️Вже 8 постраждалих у Кривому Розі." FACT: Situation reported as controlled. Renewed UAV threat, explosion, fire, and repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack and KABs. RUF claims targets hit without AD opposition and power outages, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties confirmed by Vilkul and ASTRA, including two rescuers. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, now fully restored, impacting urban transport. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. Trolleybus movement fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 use. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. Oleksandr Vilkul posts photo messages showing a formal ceremony. New explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack reported by Vilkul. New strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih confirmed, with preliminary 2 injured (now updated to 3 injured). RUF confirms new strike on Kryvyi Rih. Colonelcassad confirms "Geranium" attacks on Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Oleksandr Vilkul, RBK-Ukraina, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 all confirm new impacts and casualties in Kryvyi Rih, with large smoke plumes. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports 8 wounded in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina confirms 8 wounded. New video confirms Shahed hit in Kryvyi Rih. ASTRA confirms second RUF attack on Kryvyi Rih today with multiple photos showing damage. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photos showing 8 injured. JUDGMENT: Increased casualties to 8 wounded indicates sustained and effective RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. The video confirming Shahed hit further corroborates the attack. The continued use of FAB with UMPK indicates RUF's increasing precision strike capabilities against urban centers. ASTRA and Serhiy Lysak's reports confirm a second attack today and the increased casualty count. Confidence: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Mykolaiv, then further towards Voznesensk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast, northern course. STERNENKO also reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea. RBK-Ukraina reports explosion in Voznesensk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts video from Kinburn Spit with burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos showing damage in Kherson Oblast from "enemy attacks." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming "Бойова підготовка калєч-полків триває повним ходом, готуються до форсування Дніпра за будь-яку ціну" (Battle training of "crippled regiments" is in full swing, preparing to cross the Dnipro at any cost) in temporarily occupied Southern Ukraine, indicating RUF intent. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports GUR destroyed three UAV operators from Dmitry Rogozin's unit in Kherson Oblast today. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror in Kherson region with shelling, showing damaged SUV and residential buildings. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling and damage in Kherson. Два майора video shows Russian forces conducting demining operations on approaches to islands in the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, implying ongoing riverine operations. FACT: UAF repelled 3 assaults. 1x airstrike confirmed. Ballistic missile threat towards Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, with explosion in Voznesensk. Video from Kinburn Spit shows burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kherson. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos of moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video suggests RUF forces are training for a Dnipro crossing operation. GUR claims destruction of 3x RUF UAV operators in Kherson Oblast. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports shelling and damage in Kherson. New video shows RUF demining operations on the Dnipro River. JUDGMENT: RUF maintains limited offensive pressure and air activity in Kherson direction. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Mykolaiv and Voznesensk indicate an expansion of RUF deep strike targets and continued threat to southern Ukraine. The Kinburn Spit video suggests continued military activity and potential for environmental impact in the region. UAF continues to document damage. The moldy bread in Kakhovka suggests logistical/food supply issues in RUF-occupied territories, potentially impacting civilian morale and stability. RUF training for a Dnipro crossing is a significant indicator of offensive intent in the southern direction. GUR claim of UAV operator destruction is a tactical success for UAF. Continued shelling highlights ongoing threat to civilians. RUF demining operations suggest active preparations for ground movement or riverine control. Confidence: HIGH.
Russian Territory:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaged. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an attack. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts multiple photo messages indicating a visit from a US delegation, including the President of the American Council on Foreign Policy, Herman Pirchner Jr. RBK-Ukraina reports a blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused by an enemy strike. TASS reports ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power, running on reserve generators. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, engaged. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 84-year-old man killed in Vasylivskyi district due to enemy attack. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video of Zaporizhzhia Regional Governor presenting state awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagement near Pokrovsk with Russian forces destroying tanks and NATO equipment. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 54-year-old man wounded by enemy attack in frontline communities. FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers. High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts confirming a visit from a US delegation. Blackout at ZNPP confirmed. TASS confirms ZNPP fully disconnected from external power, running on generators. New RUF UAV activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 1x fatality in Vasylivskyi district. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts a video of the governor presenting awards to police officers. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports continued shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z video claims engagements near Pokrovsk. A 54-year-old man was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. JUDGMENT: UAF AD in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast remains effective against UAV threats, but RUF continues to probe and also use tactical aviation for strikes. Renewed UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF is also focusing on the Zaporizhzhia front, likely employing ISR and fires. Kryvyi Rih and now Dnipro are actively being targeted by Shaheds, KABs, and ballistic missiles, with confirmed impacts, power outages, and increased casualties, including emergency services personnel. The claimed first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, if confirmed, signifies an escalation in precision strike capability against urban centers and confirms a high-impact event. RUF claims of no AD opposition in Ukraine are likely exaggerated propaganda. Targeting of tram infrastructure indicates intent to disrupt critical civilian transport. The increase in casualties in Kryvyi Rih is a significant setback. The restoration of trolleybus movement demonstrates UAF rapid response and resilience. The Su-34 use confirms dedicated tactical aviation for attacks. The Air Command "East" comment on KAB hit indicates UAF is aware of the specific munition but may be denying effective impact, which needs to be verified. The video from Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Два майора confirms large smoke plume and suggests an industrial target, consistent with prior reports of FAB use. The repeated ballistic missile alerts and confirmed explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad show RUF's continued intent to strike deep into critical urban centers. The UAV movement from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts indicates RUF's ability to conduct long-range UAV operations, potentially to set up new strike vectors. RUF photo of strike on Dnipro and Operatyvnyi ZSU video of smoke plume confirms impact. The visit of a US delegation to Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued international diplomatic and support efforts for Ukraine. The blackout at ZNPP is a critical event, indicating targeting of nuclear infrastructure or related power lines, and poses severe risks. ZNPP's complete disconnection is a critical safety incident. RUF UAV presence in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia shows continued aerial reconnaissance/strike. The fatality in Vasylivskyi district underscores continued RUF strikes on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The video of police awards is a morale-boosting civilian event. Continued shelling indicates ongoing threat. RUF video claiming engagements near Pokrovsk aligns with known RUF offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast, implying continued pressure on this axis. The new casualty in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates continued civilian impact in frontline communities. Confidence: HIGH.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RUF Dispositions:
Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures (extremist designations, legal proceedings, lawsuits against defense industry, new laws against "dropperism," fraud convictions like Ex-Deputy Head of Ministry of Emergency Situations Pavel Baryshev, journalist Alla Konstantinova declared wanted, arrest of Rumo JSC chairman, criminal cases against Svetlinsky mine top managers, Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan arrest, Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head deportation, fraud investigation of singer Larisa Dolina). The ongoing public mourning for Gudkov and the domestic impact of UAF UAV strikes on Rostov, Moscow, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Oryol, Tambov, Ryazan, Voronezh, Vladimir, and Ivanovo Oblasts (casualties, evacuations, significant fires, substation damage, widespread power outages, 33 injured in Izhevsk, 7 injured in Belgorod, chemical enterprise fire in Shebekino, 2 injured in Shebekino) demonstrate increasing impact on Russian society and infrastructure. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more recently, 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol between 13:00 and 16:00 MSK, 16 more over Bryansk, Ryazan, Smolensk, and Oryol between 16:00 and 18:00 MSK, 11 more over Bryansk Oblast, 3 more over Bryansk Oblast). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more recently, 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF propaganda attempts to highlight UAF defections (e.g., Aleksandr Postoenko). Mash on Donbas is advertising mobile internet in occupied Volnovakha. This is a control measure, enhancing communication and integration with Russian networks. RUF source "Рыбарь" expresses concern about "diversions or accidents" implying internal security issues or UAF deep strike effectiveness. The reported death of Transneft VP Badalov, whether accident or not, will be an internal security concern. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discusses Ukrainian special services' alleged recruitment of Russian population. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police raids on scooter/bicycle riders, indicating enhanced local security/control measures. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports imprisonment of two UAF "militants" for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating continued judicial control over alleged UAF actions. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat, indicating heightened security at critical industrial sites. Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares, possibly linked to internal economic or security issues. Romania's statement on no troops for Ukraine highlights RUF's ongoing attempts to influence NATO cohesion. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about the law protecting Russian language, emphasizing internal cultural control. Военкор Котенок highlighting the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case suggests an attempt to manage internal ethnic tensions. Kadyrov_95's video shows an attempt to project control and stability over regional socio-economic conditions. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warnings for threats in house chats, indicating extended control into domestic communication. TASS reports MoD statement on massed strikes in response to "terrorist acts" by Kyiv. TASS reports Peskov's statement on Putin telling Trump that Russia is waiting for Kyiv to agree on terms for a third round of negotiations. Alex Parker Returns claims "Boomerang has returned," a clear propaganda message regarding UAF deep strikes. TASS reports of rapper OG Buda fined for drug propaganda, indicating continued internal social control. TASS reports Medinsky statement on new history textbook cover promoting cooperation for Russia, indicating narrative control and shaping. A new prisoner exchange occurred with Russia returning personnel to Belarus. Two Majors photo message on "insiders" and "terrorism" indicates RUF internal security concerns and propaganda about internal threats. Rybar's video on anti-Russian activity by Azerbaijani deputies is propaganda highlighting geopolitical friction. Alex Parker Returns's post on Azerbaijani cultural head deportation is propaganda on internal control, which may also have international implications. MoD of Netherlands reports Russia increasing chemical weapons use in Ukraine, which is a significant international diplomatic issue. TASS reports EC presence at Euro Parliament hearings on Von der Leyen no confidence vote, attempting to highlight internal EU divisions. RBK-Ukraina reports Chinese consulate damaged in Odesa, which will likely draw significant international attention and condemnation, particularly from China, potentially impacting Russia's relationship with a key partner. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports Ukrainian defense companies will open production facilities in Denmark, indicating a significant step in international defense cooperation. ASTRA reports Czech Republic blackout. RBK-Ukraina reports EU is discussing 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which indicates continued international pressure. TASS reports on NBC News claim of US military aid halt to Ukraine was a unilateral decision by Pentagon head Hegset, which is a significant information point for international aid. TASS reports government suspended accrual of penalties on taxes/insurance for mobilized personnel. TASS reports blackout in Czech Republic was due to technical reasons. TASS reports SBU conducting agent work in Turkey. RBK-Ukraina reports German politician Merz suspects link between RUF attacks and Putin-Trump talks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Операция Z (Русской Весны) amplifying NBC News report about US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies to Ukraine, indicates a coordinated RUF attempt to undermine Western support. TASS posts photo about Elon Musk poll on creating new political party "America," indicating RUF attempts to use information operations on Western political divisions. "Сливочный каприз" posts aerial footage of a destroyed RUF armored vehicle, which is a RUF source acknowledging BDA from UAF strikes, but the lack of accompanying text in the video suggests a more subtle acknowledgment rather than overt propaganda. RBK-Ukraina video featuring an emotional liberated UAF defender is powerful counter-propaganda, highlighting resilience and the human cost for Ukraine. RBK-Ukraina videos of civilians holding portraits of fallen soldiers aim to evoke public sympathy and underscore the war's impact. Alex Parker Returns posts civilian traffic accident video with a caption blaming "indispensable specialists," which is xenophobic propaganda aimed at domestic audience. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports Fox News claim about Ukraine mining western border, which is RUF propaganda aimed at undermining Western support and portraying Ukraine as a threat. НгП раZVедка posts video and caption implying that Ukrainians are demanding donations from Belarusians for their return, which is RUF disinformation aiming to sow discord between Ukraine and Belarus. Colonelcassad posts video of a speaker from "Country of Life" implying a fundraising call, a similar propaganda tactic to НгП раZVедка, targeting Belarussian audience. RUF sources (TASS, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews) confirming prisoner exchange and return of personnel is a positive for internal morale, but also a propaganda point for international audience. RUF sources reporting on Telegram/WhatsApp outages and mobile signal reduction due to UAV threats (Глеб Никитин) are attempts to control the narrative around internal disruptions, portraying them as necessary security measures. RUF continues to portray UAF as responsible for "terrorism." TASS reports the Russian Prosecutor General's Office (ГП) is demanding that the "International Satanism Movement" be recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation, which is used to portray RUF as protecting traditional values and combating "extremism." TASS reports a street named after director Aleksey Balabanov will appear in Yekaterinburg, which is a soft power propaganda effort to promote Russian culture. Старше Эдды's new videos reinforce RUF patriotic propaganda. KVMVA's new photo messages frame the Kyiv attack as a "terrorist act," contributing to UAF counter-propaganda. OPERATYVNYI ZSU's video on SSU counter-recruitment efforts is a direct counter to RUF hybrid operations. RBK-Ukraina and STERNENKO reports on Trump's statement regarding PVO aid are positive for UAF information efforts. Alex Parker Returns's new xenophobic posts demonstrate continued efforts to spread internal ethnic division. RUF "Операция Z" posts video claiming "horrible explosion of Polish enterprise near Zhytomyr," (no UAF confirmation) which is RUF propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts on the "famous pipe" in Luhansk to reinforce "terrorism" narrative. Старше Эдды provides geopolitical analysis on China's interests, framing the conflict as beneficial for China, and also comments on the costs of Chinese support. Филолог в засаде references "reviews from an active officer" regarding Russian military welfare, indicating internal discussions on morale. Рыбарь posts on "Maritime borders in Turkish" showing geopolitical focus of RUF information operations. Alex Parker Returns's analysis on Chechen economic dependency provides an internal critical perspective. AV БогомаZ posts about Unecha overpass as "strategically important," which is propaganda highlighting RUF construction efforts near the border. Операция Z quotes "Madyar" on 1000+ Shahed attacks, indicating RUF aims to propagate fear of overwhelming numbers. ASTRA reports history textbook cover changes (removing dove of peace), signifying a clear ideological shift in state-controlled historical narrative and the abandonment of peace messaging. Два майора posts a photo message implying that individual "military collectives" are effectively pushing the front and repelling attacks "against all odds," which is a form of soft propaganda to praise resilience but also suggests fragmented operational effectiveness or lack of a cohesive strategy. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, in a video on Shebekino, directly states UAF hit a civilian enterprise not linked to the military-industrial complex, and frames it as UAF "rejoicing in the effectiveness of their criminal actions," a clear RUF propaganda trope. WarGonzo video on drone strikes by 36th Guards Brigade emphasizes RUF effectiveness against UAF personnel. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy's video description highlights RUF terror against civilians, a UAF counter-propaganda message. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleg Syniehubov's videos on National Police Day serve to bolster morale and public trust in security forces. RBK-Ukraina video featuring Zelenskiy confirms his phone call with Trump, emphasizing continued international diplomatic engagement. RBK-Ukraina and SBU's exclusive photos/videos of the prisoner exchange are powerful counter-propaganda, highlighting UAF's commitment to its personnel and successful negotiation. TASS confirms Poland sent a diplomatic note to Russia regarding damage to its consulate in Kyiv. Rybar posts a photo message "Israel in every home," indicating a broader geopolitical focus for RUF information operations that are not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine. WarGonzo posts a video about new details of US strikes on Iran, showing a GBU-57 MOP bomb test, indicating RUF's use of international military events for propaganda and to highlight Western military capabilities. Kotsnews posts a social media poll showing significant public support for closing all Azerbaijani markets and restaurants in Russia, indicating xenophobic sentiment amplified by RUF media. Colonelcassad provides multiple videos and context on the Nalchik attack, including the initiation of a criminal case. Alex Parker Returns provides video of an injured individual in military fatigues, captioned "Dobeyte vyzhyvshikh. Tak govoril Zhelezny Dimon," implying a call to kill survivors or a grim aftermath. TASS reports a suspect detained in the Sergiev Posad stabbing. TASS reports Russian Ambassador summoned to Armenian MFA for protest note regarding "statements" from Russia on Armenian internal political processes. TASS reports Russian Ministry of Justice added Lithuanian and German organizations to the undesirable list. Two Majors post videos of RUF "Timso Signalmen" in a wooded area and their vehicle being equipped with a radio station, implying their field operations and communication upgrades. Alex Parker Returns posts a video with caption "Обратите внимание на зубы." Confidence: HIGH.
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
Air Defense: UAF Air Defense remains active and engaged in repelling massed RUF UAV and missile attacks. However, the sheer volume (550 air targets launched by RUF) and multi-directional nature of the attacks, now including layered ballistic (Kinzhal, Iskander-M, from Crimea, from the East, towards Samar/Dnipro) and cruise missile (Iskander-K) strikes, continue to stress AD capabilities. Significantly increased casualties in Kyiv (26 wounded, 1 fatality) and confirmed impacts, including railway infrastructure, traffic disruptions, 5 ambulances, residential areas (Hatne), Nova Poshta branches, a book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, a fire-rescue unit, DTEK equipment, and two transformer substations, indicate some saturation of AD. The damaged Polish consulate highlights diplomatic ramifications. Reports of "missiles minus" and "mopeds preliminarily minus" indicate continued successful interceptions, but the confirmed fires and debris fields show that not all threats are neutralized. The repeated air raid alerts and civilian sheltering in metro underline the ongoing challenge. Confirmed interception of 14 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrates continued local AD effectiveness. STERNENKO's initiative to raise funds for interceptor drones highlights this pressing need (reaching 10.5 million). UAF Air Force reports 478/550 targets neutralized, indicating a high rate of interception despite the volume of RUF attacks. Zelenskiy states "interceptor drones have started working - dozens shot down". UAF South Defense Forces report 18 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed in their operational zone over the past day. UAF Air Force reports continued engagement of strike UAVs over Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video highlighting local aid to Armed Forces, demonstrating continued support structure. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of KABs. Oleksii Biloshytskyi's video highlights police/military readiness and response. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts photo message on "Kyiv region sky is our priority" with AD systems. Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit in Kryvyi Rih indicates specific engagement. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports SBU found Chinese components in downed "Geranium" UAVs. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (Gerbera) over Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. STERNENKO posts photo claiming Trump and Zelenskiy discussed escalation of Russian strikes and air defense supplies. UAF Air Force reports lifting of ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк posts video of UAF 111th Separate Assault Brigade preparing FPV drones. STERNENKO's fundraiser for "Shahedorez" (Shahed cutter) reaches 12 million UAH, indicating continued strong public support for AD. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskiy and Trump agreed to work on strengthening Ukrainian air defense. OPERATYVNYI ZSU also reports additional details from President Zelenskiy on the Trump conversation. KVMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) also posts about Zelenskiy's conversation with Trump, confirming focus on strengthening air defense. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches into Zaporizhzhia Oblast by RUF tactical aviation. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video of a ZU-23-2 gunner successfully engaging an enemy drone (Shahed) at night, indicating continued air defense efforts against UAVs. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" post videos of a downed Shahed drone floating in the Dnipro River in Kyiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos captioned "Дуже важлива й корисна розмова з Президентом США Дональдом Трампом, — Зеленський." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video confirming significant fundraising efforts for UAF. RBK-Ukraina and STERNENKO report Trump confirmed he wants to help with air defense and will check on supply suspension. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump wants to help with PVO and check on supply suspension. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Germany is negotiating with US to purchase two Patriot systems for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of downed "Gerbera" in Dnipro. STERNENKO posts that 13.8 million has been collected for "Shahedorez," indicating continued public support. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Zelenskiy stated dozens of Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones during the night attack. RBK-Ukraina video of Zelenskiy's statement confirms this. ASTRA posts a photo of Zelenskiy and Trump, with a caption confirming their phone call after Putin's. Zelenskiy / Official video highlights significant number of Russian drones and missiles shot down by interceptor drones, confirming their effectiveness. STERNENKO reports nearly 15 million UAH collected for "Shahedorez" (Shahed cutter), indicating continued strong public support and ongoing resource needs. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts, indicating continued AD readiness. ASTRA posts photo confirming Trump's statement to Zelenskiy about US desire to help with AD. RBK-Ukraina posts an updated map of Ukraine with regions highlighted in red and orange, indicating "Updated information regarding enemy drone movement." Confidence: HIGH.
Ground Forces: UAF forces in Donetsk Oblast continue to defend against high-intensity RUF assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, and now face challenges in the Huliaipole direction with RUF claims of EW station destruction. UAF forces in Sumy Oblast are actively defending against new RUF probing attacks, including those supported by KABs, repelling 16 assaults. UAF units in Kharkiv are now under renewed KAB and UAV threat and remain in a fixing role, while managing RUF claims of limited territorial gains and logistics disruption. Shadow unit demonstrates continued ISR and precision strike capability (HIMARS strike on Makiivka ammo depot, video of military engagements with US flag). General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" continue to provide daily RUF combat loss figures, indicating active engagement. General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 04.07.25, confirming continued defensive operations along the front, including repelling 3 assaults in Kherson. UAF General Staff (photo message) directly attributes civilian casualties to Russia (#russiaHITScivilians), indicating proactive information warfare. UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade DSHV shows video of a soldier demonstrating an M32 rotary grenade launcher. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the National Police of Ukraine. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) posts video showing an "anti-drone kung fu" by a Russian occupier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating UAF drone activity in that area and RUF physical counter-drone measures. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv RMA) posts photo message about supporting UAF, showing military personnel and equipment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos about SSOs instructor. DeepState posts photo message "In your films, you always showed a fictional war with fictional aliens," suggesting a defiant stance against RUF narrative. The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. The Office of the General Prosecutor reports uncovering an illegal scheme for transferring military personnel from combat to rear units, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain combat readiness and counter corruption. ДШВ ЗС України posts photos of a combat instructor and their experience, showcasing UAF expertise. UAF strike in western Donetsk reported. UAF General Prosecutor reports suspicion to ex-Ministry of Defense official for negligence causing ~2 billion UAH losses. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno announces fundraising for 10th Mountain Assault Brigade tankers. Prosecutor General's Office reports a case against ex-commander of 211th Pontoon-Bridge Brigade covering up abuse of soldiers. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag in Chernihiv Oblast. NABU conducted searches at ex-MoD Reznikov's residence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of returned Ukrainian POWs. The Office of the General Prosecutor reports suspicion to former Deputy Head of the Central Forestry Office of the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine" for illicit enrichment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.2025, detailing continued defensive operations and clashes across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kupyansk directions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo showing anti-Putin posters on the border with Belarus, highlighting psychological operations. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video on sappers and mine clearance, highlighting continuous efforts to ensure ground force mobility. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of a RUF soldier describing 25 days of harsh conditions and threats, which can be used to highlight RUF personnel issues and bolster UAF morale. ДШВ ЗС України posts video showcasing a drone repair and modification workshop, emphasizing Ukrainian adaptability and technical expertise for combat drones. OTU "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video featuring Ukrainian soldiers undergoing training, including firearms, anti-tank grenade launcher use, and discussion of combat stress, emphasizing combat readiness. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video of the meeting of returned POWs, emphasizing the humanitarian aspect of prisoner exchanges and national pride. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a video on SSU counter-recruitment efforts, demonstrating UAF proactive measures in hybrid warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ reports "Main enemy goal is Siversk," citing Mykola Hrytsenko on challenges for Rubizh Brigade. Colonelcassad video/photos and Alex Parker Returns photo/text confirm UAF HIMARS strike on Donetsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts SBU video of prisoner exchange. RBK-Україна posts video of prisoner exchange. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video suggests RUF training for Dnipro crossing, which is a potential threat to UAF ground forces in the south. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports GUR destroyed three UAV operators from Dmitry Rogozin's unit in Kherson Oblast today. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleg Syniehubov post videos on Ukrainian National Police Day, celebrating police officers and their role in national security. Silvoborona Pivdnya Ukrainy reports enemy terror in Kherson, Nikopol, and Kryvyi Rih, with damaged SUV and residential buildings, showing the impact of shelling and the need for medical assistance for a child. RBK-Ukraina shows SBU exclusive photos/videos from prisoner exchange. Silovborona Pivdnya Ukrainy provides a tactical analysis report. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video shows destruction of a concealed position, likely a RUF drone operator. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone footage of RUF infantry and a motorcycle, indicating UAF active targeting and engagement of RUF ground units. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos indicating a successful hit by UAF on a target. РБК-Україна reports UAF struck the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Donetsk Oblast. Олексій Білошицький posts a video from the National Police Day, celebrating police officers and their role. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts a reminder about a critical fundraiser. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for a bus with EW system for the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade. Confidence: HIGH.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
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