Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. Enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south. KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 26 casualties in Kyiv as of 0937Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. Partial traffic disruption confirmed. Severe structural damage to residential buildings, including a multi-story building engulfed in fire, confirmed by multiple sources. RBK-Ukraina reports 5 ambulances damaged in Kyiv due to the night attack, with no medical personnel casualties. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0543Z. Threat of collapse in a damaged five-story building in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv, reported. KVMVA states 550 air attack assets were launched by Russia against Ukraine, with almost all targeting Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports KVMVA statement re: "one of the largest combined attacks." OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports over 20 damaged locations and over 20 casualties in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos of significant damage from night attacks in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged Nova Poshta branches in Kyiv. Damaged book publishing warehouse "Nash Format" in Kyiv confirmed. Polish consulate in Kyiv was damaged during massed strike. RUF MoD claims a massed strike by RF Aerospace Forces on military infrastructure in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged DTEK equipment and destroyed two transformer substations in Kyiv during the attack. Basurin o Glavnom posts video claiming "Kyiv underground" destroyed a UAF vehicle "in broad daylight," showing a burning vehicle. KVMVA reports a fatality found in Sviatoshynskyi district during cleanup. RBK-Ukraina also reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a first fatality in Kyiv. Tsaplienko also reports at least one fatality in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports circular electric train traffic has been restored in Kyiv. ASTRA reports a civilian fatality in Kyiv. KVMVA posts video confirming damage to a fire-rescue unit, windows blown out, facade damaged, but no personnel casualties. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts photo message indicating several "Gerbera" (likely Shahed) drones shot down over Kyiv had cameras, CRPA antennas, and radio modems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates this information, claiming these were shot down overnight. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) claims new reconnaissance drones with 360-degree cameras and jam-protected data transmission were shot down over Kyiv, and that UAF believes RUF has repeaters near Kyiv to extend range to Bryansk Oblast. Oleksii Biloshytskyi posts video highlighting night attacks on Kyiv. **FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, significantly increased civilian casualties (up to 26 wounded), a confirmed fatality in Sviatoshynskyi district, damaged railway infrastructure, damaged DTEK equipment, and destroyed two transformer substations confirmed in Kyiv. A residential house in Hatne was hit by a drone. Civilians are sheltering in metro stations. Traffic disruptions and widespread smoke confirmed. Emergency services are actively engaged in BDA and fire suppression across multiple districts, utilizing aviation. New video/photo evidence confirms severe structural damage to residential buildings, including damage to Nova Poshta branches and a book publishing warehouse. 5 ambulances were damaged. Threat of collapse in Solomyanskyi district. RUF claims strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport. KVMVA confirms "one of the largest combined attacks" with 550 air attack assets launched against Ukraine, majority targeting Kyiv. Consequences are being fixed in three Kyiv districts. KVMDA claims low air pollution. Polish consulate was damaged. RUF propaganda highlights air quality issues in Kyiv and expresses satisfaction with the strikes. RUF MoD claims confirm intent to hit military and strategic infrastructure. Damage to a fire-rescue unit is a direct strike on emergency services, compounding the humanitarian impact. The increase in casualties and the confirmed fatality underscores the severity of the attack. Damage to DTEK equipment and substations indicates targeting of energy infrastructure. The claimed "Kyiv underground" attack on a UAF vehicle is RUF disinformation aiming to portray internal resistance within Ukraine, but lacks credible verification. Restoration of circular electric train traffic demonstrates UAF resilience in restoring critical infrastructure. Discovery of Chinese components in Geranium UAVs highlights international supply chain for RUF military hardware. The advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (Gerbera) indicate RUF is using them not just for strike but also for reconnaissance and targeting updates, a notable tactical evolution. Alex Parker Returns's claim regarding new reconnaissance drones and UAF assessment of repeaters supports the UAF reporting on the ISR capabilities of downed Shaheds and and confirms the RUF intent to use these drones for advanced reconnaissance. Confidence: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykhalchyna Sloboda of Chernihiv region. General Staff of UAF posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag erected on the border with Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Chernihiv Oblast, engaged. FACT: 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykhalchyna Sloboda. UAF destroyed a RUF flag on the border. RUF UAV active in Chernihiv Oblast. JUDGMENT: RUF continues to use tactical aviation for strikes near border areas. UAF maintains active counter-reconnaissance/symbolic actions in border areas. Continued RUF UAV activity indicates ongoing reconnaissance/strike intent. Confidence: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaged. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties in Kryvyi Rih (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih, implying a denied or mitigated impact. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video showing a large plume of black smoke, claiming it's the first time a glide bomb has hit Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek states ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro, with ballistic missile confirmed heading towards city. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) posts photo claiming strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress, likely from an attack. NEW: UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. **FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad, with explosions heard. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih, including two rescuers. High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trolleybus movement in Kryvyi Rih fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 used to attack Kryvyi Rih. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit on Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD. ASTRA confirms 6 casualties. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading west/northwest (Kharkiv Oblast, impacting situational awareness for Dnipro). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Samar. UAF Air Force issues shelter alert for Dnipro. Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms ballistic missile threat is current. RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Dnipro due to ballistic missile. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad. STERNENKO confirms Dnipro/suburbs under ballistic missile attack. Операция Z (RUF source) photo claims strike on Dnipro. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of large smoke plume in Dnipro. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA posts photo of an individual in distress. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, course towards Dnipro. JUDGMENT: UAF AD in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast remains effective against UAV threats, but RUF continues to probe and also use tactical aviation for strikes. Renewed UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF is also focusing on the Zaporizhzhia front, likely employing ISR and fires. Kryvyi Rih and now Dnipro are actively being targeted by Shaheds, KABs, and ballistic missiles, with confirmed impacts, power outages, and increased casualties, including emergency services personnel. The claimed first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, if confirmed, signifies an escalation in precision strike capability against urban centers and confirms a high-impact event. RUF claims of no AD opposition in Ukraine are likely exaggerated propaganda. Targeting of tram infrastructure indicates intent to disrupt critical civilian transport. The increase in casualties in Kryvyi Rih is a significant setback. The restoration of trolleybus movement demonstrates UAF rapid response and resilience. The Su-34 use confirms dedicated tactical aviation for attacks. The Air Command "East" comment on KAB hit indicates UAF is aware of the specific munition but may be denying effective impact, which needs to be verified. The video from Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Два майора confirms large smoke plume and suggests an industrial target, consistent with prior reports of FAB use. The repeated ballistic missile alerts and confirmed explosions in Dnipro and Pavlohrad show RUF's continued intent to strike deep into critical urban centers. The UAV movement from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts indicates RUF's ability to conduct long-range UAV operations, potentially to set up new strike vectors. RUF photo of strike on Dnipro and Operatyvnyi ZSU video of smoke plume confirms impact. Confidence: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. WarGonzo map indicates continued advances in the Chasiv Yar direction and claims for control of the Kanal microdistrict. WarGonzo also claims "liberation of Yablonovka" near Andriivka, indicating continued engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators destroying UAF strongpoints and technical means in the Huliaipole direction, specifically claiming destruction of a Ukrainian EW station. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast at 0538Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka of Donetsk region. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Myrne, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Razine, Promin, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Dachne and towards Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka, Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka in Pokrovsk direction yesterday. Clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Orikhiv direction. Clashes yesterday near Novozlatopil in Huliaipole direction. Clashes yesterday near Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Katerynivka in Toretsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Vyyimka, Serebryanka and Fedorivka in Siversk direction. Clashes yesterday near Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyny, Torske, Nadiya and towards Serebryanka, Dronivka and Shandryholove in Lyman direction. RUF source "Операция Z" claims a "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk (RUF claims against UAF rear bases). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video showing "FABing" in the Piddubne area by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army. TASS claims Russian forces cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade worked against enemy personnel and equipment in Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) posts video claiming destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims new targets hit in "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from Donetsk into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims " уточнение после удара по 110-й мехбригаде ВСУ" (clarification after strike on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade) with photo messages implying successful strike. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims "Армия России уничтожила всё командование 110-й бригады ВСУ одним ударом" (Russian Army destroyed entire command of UAF 110th Brigade with one strike). TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Военкор Котенок also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Операция Z also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact in Kramatorsk with photos showing smoke and damaged buildings, implying a strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk region. UPDATE: TASS reports UAF struck western Donetsk, with preliminary reports of casualties and 4 wounded. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio traffic from 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk area. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports UAF shelling of western Donetsk, with some targets intercepted by PVO. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports PVO working in Donetsk and a missile strike by UAF on western districts of DNR capital, claiming civilian casualties. Mash na Donbasse video claims UAF struck Petrovka in Donetsk, with preliminary 4 injured and some deceased. ASTRA video also shows damage in Trudovskoy village, western occupied Donetsk, due to UAF strike. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports liberation of Predtechyno in DNR. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition states 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Colonelcassad posts video showing destruction of a UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar on minefields. TASS posts video showing aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of occupied Donetsk. WarGonzo reports 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF shelling. Basurin o Glavnom posts video showing aftermath in western Donetsk from UAF strike, with claims of 4 dead, 4 wounded. Voenkor Kotenok posts video showing damage in Petrovsky district of Donetsk due to UAF strike. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed." The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV activity in northern Donetsk Oblast, moving southwest. Mash na Donbasse reports 4 fatalities in Petrovka from explosions. Basurin o Glavnom discusses why bridges across the Dnieper are still intact. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.2025: In the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has increased intensity, 27 attacks recorded, 13 repelled, 14 ongoing near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novohrodivka, and Vodiane. In the Kramatorsk direction, RUF continues attempts to advance from Bakhmut. 10 assaults near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar, 4 repelled, 6 ongoing. In the Toretsk direction, 5 assaults, 2 repelled, 3 ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Pivnichne, and Pivdenne. In the Kurakhove direction, 7 assaults, 3 repelled, 4 ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodiane. In the Orikhiv direction, 10 assaults near Mala Tokmachka, Mala Bilozirka, Poltavka, and Kostiantynivka. In the Huliaipole direction, 7 attacks. In the Velyka Novosilka direction, 1 RUF assault near Staromaiorske. In the Lyman direction, 12 RUF assaults, 9 repelled, 3 ongoing near Terny, Makiivka, Nevske, and Serebriansk forestry. In the Kupyansk direction, 10 RUF assaults, 6 repelled, 4 ongoing near Synkivka, Berestove, and Stepova Novoselivka. RUF WarGonzo video claims Paratroopers burned two pickups and UAF cargo in Zaporizhzhia, showing thermal imaging of a strike. Colonelcassad reports a night optical fiber drone hit a Swedish armored personnel carrier PBV302, filled with UAF infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video of intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with aggressive propaganda. Alex Parker Returns posts map, claiming RUF liberated Predtechyno and that the UAF front near Konstantinovka has "collapsed," with an implication to Konstantinovka to "prepare." **FACT: High-intensity combat continues in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. RUF claims of destroying UAF EW station in Huliaipole direction. Renewed UAV threat for Donetsk Oblast. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Sustained clashes reported across multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation confirmed in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, specifically in Piddubne. RUF claims pocket cleared between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims 14th Spetsnaz struck Karla Marksa. RUF claims destruction of UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims strikes on Kramatorsk and a successful strike on the UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade, claiming destruction of its command. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno in DNR (Konstantinovka direction). Colonelcassad shows photos of significant impact in Kramatorsk. RUF video claims UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery. UAF struck western Donetsk with preliminary casualties (4 wounded, 4 deceased), confirmed by RUF and ASTRA. RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. RUF claims advance towards Pokrovsk. New KAB launches in Donetsk Oblast. TASS video shows aftermath of shelling in western Donetsk. ASTRA confirms 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district. WarGonzo confirms 4 fatalities in Petrovsky district. Basurin o Glavnom video and Voenkor Kotenok video corroborate damage and casualties in Petrovsky district. Alex Parker Returns claims Predtechyno liberation and UAF front collapse near Konstantinovka. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Donetsk Oblast from enemy attacks. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches and UAV activity in Donetsk. Mash na Donbasse confirms 4 fatalities in Petrovka. Basurin o Glavnom discusses Dnipro bridges. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 27 attacks in Pokrovsk direction (14 ongoing), 10 in Kramatorsk (6 ongoing), 5 in Toretsk (3 ongoing), 7 in Kurakhove (4 ongoing), 10 in Orikhiv, 7 in Huliaipole, 1 in Velyka Novosilka, 12 in Lyman (3 ongoing), 10 in Kupyansk (4 ongoing). WarGonzo video claims destruction of UAF pickups and cargo in Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad reports an FPV drone hit on a Swedish PBV302 APC, loaded with infantry, in the Kupyansk direction. Военкор Котенок posts a photo from Novopavlovsk direction. UAF Air Force confirms KAB launches in Donetsk. Colonelcassad posts intercepted radio communication of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk with propaganda message. Alex Parker Returns claims "Slavno" and for Konstantinovka to "prepare." JUDGMENT: RUF maintains offensive momentum in Donetsk Oblast, prioritizing Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. RUF actively targeting UAF EW capabilities, indicating an adaptation to counter UAF drone operations. Continued UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF continues to conduct deep strikes against UAF rear areas (Kramatorsk) and is now using KABs to support ground operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. The claimed pocket clearance and destruction of 110th Brigade command signifies local tactical gains/HVTs, if confirmed. RUF is also focusing on specific UAF equipment and personnel in targeted settlements and on minefields. The claimed liberation of Predtechyno, if confirmed, represents a local RUF tactical gain in the Konstantinovka direction and a potential significant breakthrough. Images from Kramatorsk suggest a significant strike. RUF propaganda claims UAF is evacuating artillery under fire, which needs verification. UAF striking western Donetsk indicates continued counter-battery or deep strike capability, with confirmed casualties on the RUF side. RUF destruction of educational facility in Kramatorsk underscores continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and further civilian casualties. The TASS video corroborates damage in western Donetsk from UAF strikes, and ASTRA's fatality report confirms the impact. Alex Parker Returns's claim of a "collapsed front" needs further independent verification, but suggests RUF intent to move towards Konstantinovka. The discussion on Dnipro bridges indicates RUF's continued strategic interest in disrupting Ukrainian logistics and a potential shift in rationale for not striking them. The General Staff report shows intense, multi-directional ground pressure across nearly all Eastern axes, especially Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Lyman. The RUF video claims of PBV302 destruction are significant if confirmed, as it targets armored personnel carriers with FPV drones. Colonelcassad's interception report of the 425th Regiment and accompanying propaganda is an attempt to sow discord and demoralize UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." WarGonzo map for Sumy direction shows enemy advances near Ryzhivka, confirming continued pressure. Rybar (RUF source) provides animated map, claiming counter-battery fire and tactical advances in Sumy direction, specifically around Andriivka, Kondratovka, and Yuganovka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novomutyn of Sumy region. UAF repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction yesterday. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo with the caption "04.07.25 Сумы - Новониколаевка", implying active engagement in the area. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts drone video of an artillery strike in the Sumy direction, near Andriivka. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on northern Sumy Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, southwest course, warning Myhorod. RBK-Ukraina confirms UAF Air Force report of high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, warning Myhorod to take cover. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. NEW: "Сливочный каприз" posts photo message "03.07.25 Сумы - Алексеевка", implying active engagement in the area and RUF control. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast, engaged. FACT: RUF probing attacks and KAB usage confirmed. RUF sources claim advances near Ryzhivka and other border settlements. 1x airstrike confirmed in Novomutyn. UAF repelled 16 assaults. RUF reports active engagement in Novomykolaivka and Alekseevka, Sumy region. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Sumy Oblast. New KAB launches reported. Artillery strike confirmed in Andriivka area. Renewed RUF UAV activity in northern Sumy Oblast and generally in the oblast. UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina confirm high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, course southwest, warning Myhorod. UAF Air Force confirms renewed KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on Sumy Oblast engaged. JUDGMENT: Sumy Oblast remains an active, new offensive axis for RUF, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. UAF is actively defending and repelling multiple assaults. RUF is conducting reconnaissance and using KABs and artillery to support these efforts. The high-speed target indicates continued missile/aircraft threat to deeper areas of Sumy Oblast. RUF claims on Alekseevka suggest territorial gains. Renewed UAV activity indicates sustained pressure. Confidence: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. UAF Air Force reports "Kharkiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs" at 0523Z. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs over eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west, at 0532Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Ambarne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka in Kupyansk direction. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv RMA, provides video and photo updates on the aftermath of strikes, consistent with previous reports of damages and ongoing emergency response. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Colonelcassad reports 5 enemy UAVs destroyed by FPV drones "VT-40" in Kharkiv direction. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo of engagement in Kupyansk - Peschanoye direction. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims "Chernika" loitering munitions were used for the first time against targets in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Oleg Syniehubov posts multiple photos with the caption "Наші люди вдома. Більшість із них перебувала в російському полоні ще з 2022 року," related to a prisoner exchange. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on Kharkiv Oblast. OTU "Kharkiv" posts photos with the same caption about "Our people are home." Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z posts photo message claiming RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka, creating another Kharkiv bridgehead. "Зона СВО" posts video claiming destruction of fortified enemy positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState posts map showing the situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Operatsiya Z (Русской Весны) posts a video claiming destruction of UAF equipment in Kupiansk by "Groza" system. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. NEW: UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video of Tsentr Group EW specialists covering column routes, implies active operations in a conflict zone, possibly Kharkiv. FACT: KAB usage confirmed. RUF claim of striking Oskil river crossings. Renewed UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. 9 settlements struck. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Clashes reported near Vovchansk and Ambarne. Renewed UAV threat in Northern/Eastern Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims destruction of 5 UAF FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims engagement near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. Oleg Syniehubov's posts confirm a prisoner exchange involving Kharkiv Oblast personnel. Oleg Syniehubov reports RUF struck civilian residents of Kupiansk. Operatsiya Z claims RUF occupied Melove and Stroevka. "Зона СВО" video claims destruction of UAF positions in Kharkiv direction. DeepState map shows situation in Milove. UAF Air Force reports continued UAV threat. Операция Z video claims destruction of UAF equipment near Kupiansk. UAF Air Force reports UAV in northern Balakliya, moving west/northwest. Oleg Syniehubov posts photo welcoming POWs home. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Poltava Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. MoD Russia video claims Tsentr Group EW activity. JUDGMENT: RUF claims of Melove and now Stroevka liberation are unconfirmed but indicate continued limited offensive intent in Kharkiv Oblast, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. Strikes on Oskil crossings indicate RUF intent to disrupt UAF logistics and create vulnerabilities. Renewed UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF continues to employ tactical aviation extensively and is actively countering UAF drone operations in the Kharkiv direction. The claimed first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions, if confirmed, signifies a new RUF capability being deployed. The prisoner exchange is a positive development for UAF personnel. Targeting civilian residents of Kupiansk indicates continued RUF intent to inflict casualties and damage civilian areas. The video claiming destruction of fortified positions in Kharkiv direction suggests RUF efforts to gain tactical advantages. Операция Z video on Kupiansk indicates continued RUF targeting of UAF equipment in the area. The UAV activity near Balakliya, and now towards Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk, indicates RUF's continued and varied use of drones in the Kharkiv direction, extending their reach. MoD Russia's video on EW activity further confirms RUF's focus on countering UAF drones and protecting their ground movements in conflict areas, potentially the Kharkiv axis. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage, airstrikes, clashes, UAV threat), MEDIUM (Melove/Stroevka liberation claim, Oskil strikes, "Chernika" claim - no UAF confirmation).
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 04.07.25. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (mopeds). Oleksandr Vilkul reports an explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of explosions in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. RUF claims new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih with "Geraniums" without AD opposition. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms UAV hit Kryvyi Rih causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 6 men injured in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports full restoration of trolleybus movement. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF attacked Kryvyi Rih with a Su-34, type of target is being established. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" commented on the information about a KAB hitting Kryvyi Rih. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD opposition. ASTRA reports 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports two rescuers among the injured in Kryvyi Rih. Два майора posts video and claims it's the first time a glide bomb hit Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports full restoration of high-speed tram movement in Kryvyi Rih. FACT: Situation reported as controlled. Renewed UAV threat, explosion, fire, and repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack and KABs. RUF claims targets hit without AD opposition and power outages, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties confirmed by Vilkul and ASTRA, including two rescuers. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, now fully restored. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. Trolleybus movement fully restored. RBK-Ukraina reports Su-34 use. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claims FAB hit industrial zone in Kryvyi Rih from 100km, without AD. Два майора video corroborates large smoke plume and claimed glide bomb impact in Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. JUDGMENT: Kryvyi Rih is now actively being targeted by RUF strike UAVs, KABs, and now potentially FAB with UMPK. While current control is asserted, this represents a new, direct threat to the city. RUF claims of no AD opposition are likely exaggerated propaganda, but power outages and increased casualties, including emergency services personnel, indicate significant impact. Targeting of tram infrastructure indicates intent to disrupt critical civilian transport. The claimed use of FAB with UMPK is a significant escalation of strike capabilities against urban areas. Rapid restoration of trolleybus movement and now high-speed tram demonstrates local resilience. The use of Su-34 aircraft implies a dedicated tactical aviation strike. The video from Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Два майора confirms large smoke plume and suggests an industrial target, consistent with prior reports of FAB use. RBK-Ukraina's discussion of the munition type for Kryvyi Rih indicates UAF is actively assessing the nature of the strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports ballistic missile towards Mykolaiv, then further towards Voznesensk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed target in Mykolaiv Oblast, northern course. STERNENKO also reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea. RBK-Ukraina reports explosion in Voznesensk. Nikolaevskiy Vanek posts video from Kinburn Spit with burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos showing damage in Kherson Oblast from "enemy attacks." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos showing moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. FACT: UAF repelled 3 assaults. 1x airstrike confirmed. Ballistic missile threat towards Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, with explosion in Voznesensk. Video from Kinburn Spit shows burning trees. Office of the General Prosecutor posts photos of damage in Kherson. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts photos of moldy bread in occupied Kakhovka. JUDGMENT: RUF maintains limited offensive pressure and air activity in Kherson direction. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Mykolaiv and Voznesensk indicate an expansion of RUF deep strike targets and continued threat to southern Ukraine. The Kinburn Spit video suggests continued military activity and potential for environmental impact in the region. UAF continues to document damage. The moldy bread in Kakhovka suggests logistical/food supply issues in RUF-occupied territories, potentially impacting civilian morale and stability. Confidence: HIGH.
Russian Territory:
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RUF Dispositions:
Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures (extremist designations, legal proceedings, lawsuits against defense industry, new laws against "dropperism," fraud convictions like Ex-Deputy Head of Ministry of Emergency Situations Pavel Baryshev, journalist Alla Konstantinova declared wanted, arrest of Rumo JSC chairman, criminal cases against Svetlinsky mine top managers, Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan arrest, Azerbaijani cultural autonomy head deportation, fraud investigation against singer Larisa Dolina). The ongoing public mourning for Gudkov and the domestic impact of UAF UAV strikes on Rostov, Moscow, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Lipetsk, and Oryol Oblasts (casualties, evacuations, airport restrictions, significant fires, substation damage, widespread power outages, 33 injured in Izhevsk, 7 injured in Belgorod, chemical enterprise fire in Shebekino) demonstrate increasing impact on Russian society and infrastructure. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more recently, 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more recently, 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod, and 12 more over Bryansk and Oryol). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF propaganda attempts to highlight UAF defections (e.g., Aleksandr Postoenko). Mash on Donbas is advertising mobile internet in occupied Volnovakha. This is a control measure, enhancing communication and integration with Russian networks. RUF source "Рыбарь" expresses concern about "diversions or accidents" implying internal security issues or UAF deep strike effectiveness. The reported death of Transneft VP Badalov, whether accident or not, will be an internal security concern. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discusses Ukrainian special services' alleged recruitment of Russian population. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police raids on scooter/bicycle riders, indicating enhanced local security/control measures. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports imprisonment of two UAF "militants" for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating continued judicial control over alleged UAF actions. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat, indicating heightened security at critical industrial sites. Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares, possibly linked to internal economic or security issues. Romania's statement on no troops for Ukraine highlights RUF's ongoing attempts to influence NATO cohesion. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about the law protecting Russian language, emphasizing internal cultural control. Военкор Котенок highlighting the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case suggests an attempt to manage internal ethnic tensions. Kadyrov_95's video shows an attempt to project control and stability over regional socio-economic conditions. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warnings for threats in house chats, indicating extended control into domestic communication. TASS reports MoD statement on massed strikes in response to "terrorist acts" by Kyiv. TASS reports Peskov's statement on Putin telling Trump that Russia is waiting for Kyiv to agree on terms for a third round of negotiations. Alex Parker Returns claims "Boomerang has returned," a clear propaganda message regarding UAF deep strikes. TASS reports of rapper OG Buda fined for drug propaganda, indicating continued internal social control. TASS reports Medinsky statement on new history textbook cover promoting cooperation for Russia, indicating narrative control and shaping. A new prisoner exchange occurred with Russia returning personnel to Belarus. Two Majors photo message on "insiders" and "terrorism" indicates RUF internal security concerns and propaganda about internal threats. Rybar's video on anti-Russian activity by Azerbaijani deputies is propaganda highlighting geopolitical friction. Alex Parker Returns's post on Azerbaijani cultural head deportation is propaganda on internal control, which may also have international implications. MoD of Netherlands reports Russia increasing chemical weapons use in Ukraine, which is a significant international diplomatic issue. TASS reports EC will be at European Parliament hearings on vote of no confidence for Von der Leyen, this is a RUF information attempt to highlight Western internal issues. Sever.Realii reports "rehabilitation of Nazism" case in St. Petersburg, highlighting RUF internal ideological control. RUF reports on prisoner exchange from Mobilizatsiya|Novosti|Srochniki and Voenkor Kotenok further serve as propaganda for internal audience. TASS reports investigation of fraud involving singer Larisa Dolina. Старше Эдды (RUF source) claims US interest in Russian artists Galkin and Zygar as CIA influence tools. НгП раZVедка posts video on funding opposition to Lukashenka. TASS reports NBC News claim that US military aid suspension was a unilateral decision by Pentagon head Hegset, amplified by RUF sources. RUF Duma proposing remote sick leave for SVO soldiers is a propaganda element. ASTRA reports a man detained in St. Petersburg for graffiti on a Victory Day banner. Rostec will not sell shares of Astrakhan port, maintaining control over logistics hub. Union of Cinematographers of RF supported quotas for Western films, indicating cultural control. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts a photo message for fundraising. TASS reports government suspended accrual of penalties on taxes/insurance for mobilized personnel. Alex Parker Returns posts photo with "Pypa, results." МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a military man beat a colleague to death during "Veterans Day" celebration, which is being used by RUF sources to highlight internal issues. Alex Parker Returns posts photo with "Everything is bad. Around treason, cowardice and deceit," highlighting internal dissent/pessimism. TASS reports blackout in Czech Republic was due to technical reasons. TASS reports SBU conducted agent work in Turkey. Военкор Котенок reports Savchenko allegedly captured. TASS reports Kadyrov denies death rumors. Alex Parker Returns comments on lack of "brave ones" to fight "axis of evil." Alex Parker Returns posts video of Azerbaijani "thief-in-law" arrested. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Операция Z (Русской Весны) amplify NBC News report about US Defense Secretary unilaterally halting arms supplies to Ukraine. TASS posts photo about Elon Musk poll on creating new political party "America." NEW: ASTRA video confirms Azerbaijani diaspora head in Moscow Oblast was stripped of Russian citizenship and deported to Azerbaijan. WarGonzo discusses why Aliyev needs to quarrel with Moscow and its connection to Karabakh, implying geopolitical context for the deportation. TASS reports IL-76MD with eighth group of Russian servicemen returned in prisoner exchange landed in Moscow Oblast. Colonelcassad confirms IL-76MD landing in Moscow Oblast. Kotsnews reports Azerbaijani diaspora head in Moscow Oblast stripped of citizenship. TASS reports Twitch may leave Russian market voluntarily, implying internal tech control measures. Глеб Никитин (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Governor) reports mobile communication and internet disruptions due to reduced signal levels of cell towers in response to UAV threats, as an additional measure to protect industrial and strategic objects. TASS reports Telegram and WhatsApp users in Russia complain about outages, including audio/video calls. Новости Москвы reports Telegram outages. Confidence: HIGH.
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Command and Control Effectiveness:
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
Air Defense: UAF Air Defense remains active and engaged in repelling massed RUF UAV and missile attacks. However, the sheer volume (550 air targets launched by RUF) and multi-directional nature of the attacks, now including layered ballistic (Kinzhal, Iskander-M, from Crimea, from the East, towards Samar/Dnipro) and cruise missile (Iskander-K) strikes, continue to stress AD capabilities. Significantly increased casualties in Kyiv (26 wounded, 1 fatality) and confirmed impacts, including railway infrastructure, traffic disruptions, 5 ambulances, residential areas (Hatne), Nova Poshta branches, a book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, a fire-rescue unit, DTEK equipment, and two transformer substations, indicate some saturation of AD. The damaged Polish consulate highlights diplomatic ramifications. Reports of "missiles minus" and "mopeds preliminarily minus" indicate continued successful interceptions, but the confirmed fires and debris fields show that not all threats are neutralized. The repeated air raid alerts and civilian sheltering in metro underline the ongoing challenge. Confirmed interception of 14 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrates continued local AD effectiveness. STERNENKO's initiative to raise funds for interceptor drones highlights this pressing need (reaching 10.5 million). UAF Air Force reports 478/550 targets neutralized, indicating a high rate of interception despite the volume of RUF attacks. Zelenskiy states "interceptor drones have started working - dozens shot down". UAF South Defense Forces report 18 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed in their operational zone over the past day. UAF Air Force reports continued engagement of strike UAVs over Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video highlighting local aid to Armed Forces, demonstrating continued support structure. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of KABs. Oleksii Biloshytskyi's video highlights police/military readiness and response. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts photo message on "Kyiv region sky is our priority" with AD systems. Air Command "East" comments on KAB hit in Kryvyi Rih indicates specific engagement. OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports SBU found Chinese-made components in downed "Geranium" UAVs. OPERATYVNYI ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report advanced ISR capabilities on downed Shaheds (Gerbera) over Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina posts photo discussing how Russia could strike Kryvyi Rih, suggesting it's unlikely a KAB. STERNENKO posts photo claiming Trump and Zelenskiy discussed escalation of Russian strikes and air defense supplies. UAF Air Force reports lifting of ballistic missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк posts video of UAF 111th Separate Assault Brigade preparing FPV drones. NEW: STERNENKO's fundraiser for "Shahedorez" (Shahed cutter) reaches 12 million UAH, indicating continued strong public support for AD. RBK-Ukraina reports Zelenskiy and Trump agreed to work on strengthening Ukrainian air defense. OPERATYVNYI ZSU also reports additional details from President Zelenskiy on the Trump conversation. KVMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) also posts about Zelenskiy's conversation with Trump, confirming focus on strengthening air defense. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches into Zaporizhzhia Oblast by RUF tactical aviation. Confidence: HIGH.
Ground Forces: UAF forces in Donetsk Oblast continue to defend against high-intensity RUF assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, and now face challenges in the Huliaipole direction with RUF claims of EW station destruction. UAF forces in Sumy Oblast are actively defending against new RUF probing attacks, including those supported by KABs, repelling 16 assaults. UAF units in Kharkiv are now under renewed KAB and UAV threat and remain in a fixing role, while managing RUF claims of limited territorial gains and logistics disruption. Shadow unit demonstrates continued ISR and precision strike capability (HIMARS strike on Makiivka ammo depot, video of military engagements with US flag). General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" continue to provide daily RUF combat loss figures, indicating active engagement. General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 04.07.25, confirming continued defensive operations along the front, including repelling 3 assaults in Kherson. UAF General Staff (photo message) directly attributes civilian casualties to Russia (#russiaHITScivilians), indicating proactive information warfare. UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade DSHV shows video of a soldier demonstrating an M32 rotary grenade launcher. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the National Police of Ukraine. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) posts video showing an "anti-drone kung fu" by a Russian occupier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating UAF drone activity in that area and RUF physical counter-drone measures. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv RMA) posts photo message about supporting UAF, showing military personnel and equipment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos about SSOs instructor. DeepState posts photo message "In your films, you always showed a fictional war with fictional aliens," suggesting a defiant stance against RUF narrative. The Office of the General Prosecutor posts multiple photos showing damage in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from "enemy attacks." DeepState posts map of the situation in Milove, Kharkiv Oblast. The Office of the General Prosecutor reports uncovering an illegal scheme for transferring military personnel from combat to rear units, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain combat readiness and counter corruption. ДШВ ЗС України posts photos of a combat instructor and their experience, showcasing UAF expertise. UAF strike in western Donetsk reported. UAF General Prosecutor reports suspicion to ex-Ministry of Defense official for negligence causing ~2 billion UAH losses. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno announces fundraising for 10th Mountain Assault Brigade tankers. Prosecutor General's Office reports a case against ex-commander of 211th Pontoon-Bridge Brigade covering up abuse of soldiers. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian warriors destroying a RUF flag in Chernihiv Oblast. NABU conducted searches at ex-MoD Reznikov's residence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of returned Ukrainian POWs. The Office of the General Prosecutor reports suspicion to former Deputy Head of the Central Forestry Office of the State Enterprise "Forests of Ukraine" for illicit enrichment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00 04.07.2025, detailing continued defensive operations and clashes across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kupyansk directions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo showing anti-Putin posters on the border with Belarus, highlighting psychological operations. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video on sappers and mine clearance, highlighting continuous efforts to ensure ground force mobility. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of a RUF soldier describing 25 days of harsh conditions and threats, which can be used to highlight RUF personnel issues and bolster UAF morale. ДШВ ЗС України posts video showcasing a drone repair and modification workshop, emphasizing Ukrainian adaptability and technical expertise for combat drones. Confidence: HIGH.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
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