Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT 041026Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. Enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south. KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 26 casualties in Kyiv as of 0937Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. Partial traffic disruption confirmed. Severe structural damage to residential buildings, including a multi-story building engulfed in fire, confirmed by multiple sources. RBK-Ukraina reports 5 ambulances damaged in Kyiv due to the night attack, with no medical personnel casualties. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0543Z. Threat of collapse in a damaged five-story building in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv, reported. KVMVA states 550 air attack assets were launched by Russia against Ukraine, with almost all targeting Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports KVMVA statement re: "one of the largest combined attacks." OPERATYVNYI ZSU reports over 20 damaged locations and over 20 casualties in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina publishes photos of significant damage from night attacks in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged Nova Poshta branches in Kyiv. Damaged book publishing warehouse "Nash Format" in Kyiv confirmed. Polish consulate in Kyiv was damaged during massed strike. RUF MoD claims a massed strike by RF Aerospace Forces on military infrastructure in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, significantly increased civilian casualties (up to 26), and damaged railway infrastructure confirmed in Kyiv. A residential house in Hatne was hit by a drone. Civilians are sheltering in metro stations. Traffic disruptions and widespread smoke confirmed. Emergency services are actively engaged in BDA and fire suppression across multiple districts, utilizing aviation. New video/photo evidence confirms severe structural damage to residential buildings, including damage to Nova Poshta branches and a book publishing warehouse. 5 ambulances were damaged. Threat of collapse in Solomyanskyi district. RUF claims strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport. KVMVA confirms "one of the largest combined attacks" with 550 air attack assets launched against Ukraine, majority targeting Kyiv. Consequences are being fixed in three Kyiv districts. KVMDA claims low air pollution. Polish consulate was damaged. RUF sources claim extremely high carcinogen concentration in Kyiv air and continue to highlight smoke over the city. RUF MoD claims strikes on military objects in Kyiv, airfield, and oil refinery. A fire-rescue unit in Kyiv was damaged. JUDGMENT: Layered RUF attack designed to overwhelm UAF AD, targeting both military, civilian, and critical transport/cultural infrastructure. Continued impacts indicate RUF intent to maintain pressure and inflict civilian casualties and disrupt daily life. Targeting emergency services and degrading air quality indicates further intent to disrupt civilian response and quality of life. RUF claims about SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport require verification but indicate perceived HVTs. The scale of the attack (550 air targets, majority on Kyiv) signifies a significant escalation in RUF aerial campaign. Despite visible smoke and fires, KVMDA claims low air pollution, likely to manage public sentiment, though this contradicts earlier reports. Visual evidence of smoke over Kyiv from RUF sources confirms impact. Damage to Polish consulate will have diplomatic implications. RUF propaganda highlights air quality issues in Kyiv and expresses satisfaction with the strikes. RUF MoD claims confirm intent to hit military and strategic infrastructure. Damage to a fire-rescue unit is a direct strike on emergency services, compounding the humanitarian impact. The increase in casualties underscores the severity of the attack. Confidence: HIGH.

• Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykhalchyna Sloboda of Chernihiv region. FACT: 1x airstrike confirmed in Mykhalchyna Sloboda. JUDGMENT: RUF continues to use tactical aviation for strikes near border areas. Confidence: HIGH.

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports 14 enemy UAVs were shot down over the oblast during the night and morning. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 0618Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Filiya, Dachne Dnipropetrovska oblasti. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat in Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul reports explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning "mopeds" (Shaheds) towards Kryvyi Rih. RBK-Ukraina reports an explosion in Dnipro, with renewed explosions reported at 1000Z. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk RMA reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih, causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, engaged. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties in Kryvyi Rih (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. FACT: 14 UAVs intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed UAV threat. 2x airstrikes confirmed in Filiya and Dachne. Renewed UAV threat in Pavlohrad. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk. RUF strike UAVs active in northern/southern Dnipropetrovsk moving west. UAV threat, explosion, fire and repeated explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed KABs. Explosion reported in Dnipro with renewed activity. RUF claims targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk. RUF claims part of Kryvyi Rih without power, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties in Kryvyi Rih. High-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih non-operational. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. JUDGMENT: UAF AD in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast remains effective against UAV threats, but RUF continues to probe and also use tactical aviation for strikes. Renewed UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF is also focusing on the Zaporizhzhia front, likely employing ISR and fires. Kryvyi Rih and now Dnipro are actively being targeted by Shaheds and KABs, with confirmed impacts, power outages, and increased casualties. The claimed first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, if confirmed, signifies an escalation in precision strike capability against urban centers and confirms a high-impact event. RUF claims of no AD opposition in Ukraine and targeting Kramatorsk require verification. Targeting of tram infrastructure indicates intent to disrupt critical civilian transport. The increase in casualties in Kryvyi Rih is a significant setback. Confidence: HIGH.

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. General Staff of UAF and OTU "Kharkiv" provide estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. WarGonzo map indicates continued advances in the Chasiv Yar direction and claims for control of the Kanal microdistrict. WarGonzo also claims "liberation of Yablonovka" near Andriivka, indicating continued engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. "Воин DV" (RUF source) reports on 35th Combined Arms Army artillery and UAV operators destroying UAF strongpoints and technical means in the Huliaipole direction, specifically claiming destruction of a Ukrainian EW station. UAF Air Force reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs in Donetsk Oblast at 0538Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka of Donetsk region. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes near Myrne, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Razine, Promin, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Horikhove, Oleksiyivka, Dachne and towards Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka, Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka in Pokrovsk direction yesterday. Clashes yesterday near Novopavlivka in Orikhiv direction. Clashes yesterday near Novozlatopil in Huliaipole direction. Clashes yesterday near Bila Hora in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Katerynivka in Toretsk direction. Clashes yesterday near Vyyimka, Serebryanka and Fedorivka in Siversk direction. Clashes yesterday near Novyi Myr, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyny, Torske, Nadiya and towards Serebryanka, Dronivka and Shandryholove in Lyman direction. RUF source "Операция Z" claims a "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk (RUF claims against UAF rear bases). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video showing "FABing" in the Piddubne area by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army. TASS claims Russian forces cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade worked against enemy personnel and equipment in Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) posts video claiming destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims new targets hit in "temporarily occupied Kramatorsk." UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from Donetsk into Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims " уточнение после удара по 110-й мехбригаде ВСУ" (clarification after strike on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade) with photo messages implying successful strike. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims "Армия России уничтожила всё командование 110-й бригады ВСУ одним ударом" (Russian Army destroyed entire command of UAF 110th Brigade with one strike). TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Военкор Котенок also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Операция Z also reports liberation of Predtechyno. Colonelcassad reports a powerful impact in Kramatorsk with photos showing smoke and damaged buildings, implying a strike. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk region. UPDATE: TASS reports UAF struck western Donetsk, with preliminary reports of casualties and 4 wounded. RBK-Ukraina reports RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts video of intercepted radio traffic from 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in Krasnoarmiisk area. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad reports UAF shelling of western Donetsk, with some targets intercepted by PVO. FACT: High-intensity combat continues in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. RUF claims of destroying UAF EW station in Huliaipole direction. Renewed UAV threat for Donetsk Oblast. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Sustained clashes reported across multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation confirmed in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, specifically in Piddubne. RUF claims pocket cleared between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims 14th Spetsnaz struck Karla Marksa. RUF claims destruction of UAF ground drone and equipment near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. RUF claims strikes on Kramatorsk and a successful strike on the UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade, claiming destruction of its command. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno in DNR (Konstantinovka direction). Colonelcassad shows photos of significant impact in Kramatorsk. RUF video claims UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery. UAF struck western Donetsk with preliminary casualties (4 wounded, possibly more deceased). RUF strike destroyed an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries. RUF claims advance towards Pokrovsk. JUDGMENT: RUF maintains offensive momentum in Donetsk Oblast, prioritizing Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. RUF actively targeting UAF EW capabilities, indicating an adaptation to counter UAF drone operations. Continued UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF continues to conduct deep strikes against UAF rear areas (Kramatorsk) and is now using KABs to support ground operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. The claimed pocket clearance and destruction of 110th Brigade command signifies local tactical gains/HVTs, if confirmed. RUF is also focusing on specific UAF equipment and personnel in targeted settlements and on minefields. The claimed liberation of Predtechyno, if confirmed, represents a local RUF tactical gain in the Konstantinovka direction. Images from Kramatorsk suggest a significant strike. RUF propaganda claims UAF is evacuating artillery under fire, which needs verification. UAF striking western Donetsk indicates continued counter-battery or deep strike capability. RUF destruction of educational facility in Kramatorsk underscores continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and further civilian casualties. Confidence: HIGH.

• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." WarGonzo map for Sumy direction shows enemy advances near Ryzhivka, confirming continued pressure. Rybar (RUF source) provides animated map, claiming counter-battery fire and tactical advances in Sumy direction, specifically around Andriivka, Kondratovka, and Yuganovka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novomutyn of Sumy region. UAF repelled 16 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction yesterday. RUF source "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo with the caption "04.07.25 Сумы - Новониколаевка", implying active engagement in the area. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts drone video of an artillery strike in the Sumy direction, near Andriivka. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAV on northern Sumy Oblast, engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast, with engagement ongoing. FACT: RUF probing attacks and KAB usage confirmed. RUF sources claim advances near Ryzhivka and other border settlements. 1x airstrike confirmed in Novomutyn. UAF repelled 16 assaults. RUF reports active engagement in Novomykolaivka, Sumy region. RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Sumy Oblast. New KAB launches reported. Artillery strike confirmed in Andriivka area. Renewed RUF UAV activity in northern Sumy Oblast and generally in the oblast. JUDGMENT: Sumy Oblast remains an active, new offensive axis for RUF, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. UAF is actively defending and repelling multiple assaults. RUF is conducting reconnaissance and using KABs and artillery to support these efforts. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF combat losses as of 04.07.25, indicating continued high attrition. UAF Air Force reports "Kharkiv Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs" at 0523Z. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs over eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west, at 0532Z. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka of Kharkiv region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Ambarne in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and towards Petropavlivka in Kupyansk direction. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv RMA, provides video and photo updates on the aftermath of strikes, consistent with previous reports of damages and ongoing emergency response. UAF Air Force reports RUF strike UAVs on northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. Colonelcassad reports 5 enemy UAVs destroyed by FPV drones "VT-40" in Kharkiv direction. "Сливочный каприз" posts photo of engagement in Kupyansk - Peschanoye direction. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims "Chernika" loitering munitions were used for the first time against targets in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast, with engagement ongoing. FACT: KAB usage confirmed. RUF claim of striking Oskil river crossings. Renewed UAV threat for Kharkiv Oblast. 9 settlements struck. Multiple airstrikes confirmed. Clashes reported near Vovchansk and Ambarne. Renewed UAV threat in Northern/Eastern Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims destruction of 5 UAF FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims engagement near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. JUDGMENT: RUF claims of Melove liberation are unconfirmed but indicate continued limited offensive intent in Kharkiv Oblast, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. Strikes on Oskil crossings indicate RUF intent to disrupt UAF logistics and create vulnerabilities. Renewed UAV threat indicates RUF intent to sustain aerial pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strike missions. RUF continues to employ tactical aviation extensively and is actively countering UAF drone operations in the Kharkiv direction. The claimed first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions, if confirmed, signifies a new RUF capability being deployed. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage, airstrikes, clashes, UAV threat), MEDIUM (Melove liberation claim, Oskil strikes, "Chernika" claim - no UAF confirmation).

• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 04.07.25. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs (mopeds). Oleksandr Vilkul reports an explosion in Kryvyi Rih due to a Shahed attack. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 morning Shaheds towards Kryvyi Rih. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of explosions in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. RUF claims new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih with "Geraniums" without AD opposition. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons use in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms UAV hit Kryvyi Rih causing fire. RBK-Ukraina reports UAV hit Kryvyi Rih. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports KABs flew towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF Air Force reports alerts for Kryvyi Rih. STERNENKO reports Kryvyi Rih under combined attack. RBK-Ukraina reports repeated explosions. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims strikes on enemy objects in Kryvyi Rih, with part of city without power. RBK-Ukraina reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms 6 non-serious casualties (previously 3). Oleksandr Vilkul states high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih will be non-operational for several hours due to attack. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih, showing a plume of dark smoke. FACT: Situation reported as controlled. Renewed UAV threat, explosion, fire, and repeated explosions in Kryvyi Rih due to Shahed attack and KABs. RUF claims targets hit without AD opposition and power outages, confirmed by RBK-Ukraina. 6 casualties. High-speed tram non-operational for hours. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, with visual evidence of large smoke plume. Strong fire observed over Kryvyi Rih. JUDGMENT: Kryvyi Rih is now actively being targeted by RUF strike UAVs, KABs, and now potentially FAB with UMPK. While current control is asserted, this represents a new, direct threat to the city. RUF claims of no AD opposition are likely exaggerated propaganda, but power outages and increased casualties indicate significant impact. Targeting of tram infrastructure indicates intent to disrupt critical civilian transport. The claimed use of FAB with UMPK is a significant escalation of strike capabilities against urban areas. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kherson Oblast: General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka of Kherson region. FACT: UAF repelled 3 assaults. 1x airstrike confirmed. JUDGMENT: RUF maintains limited offensive pressure and air activity in Kherson direction. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Territory:

  • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok due to mourning for Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov further confirms his death. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the death of Andrey Badalov, Vice President of Transneft. ASTRA confirms Badalov fell from a window, death by suicide/accident. TASS confirms the death of Transneft VP Andrey Badalov in Moscow.
  • Internal Security: TASS reports Rosfinmonitoring added a minor (born 2011) to its list of extremists and terrorists. TASS also reports Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan and their families are still unaware of the accusations, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction. TASS reports Akunin case to be considered July 14, further emphasizing internal repression. Colonelcassad reports on drone attacks against Izhevsk. TASS reports air space restrictions in Izhevsk airport at 0529Z. ASTRA confirms Izhevsk airport closure at 0536Z. Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports a new federal law on criminal liability for "dropperism" (money laundering for fraudsters) comes into force July 5th, indicating ongoing internal security/financial crime concerns. VTB bank reports a new fraud scheme targeting pensioners. TASS video shows the damaged vehicle of Zakhar Prilepin, highlighting internal security concerns related to assassination attempts. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (RUF source) posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discussing Ukrainian special services recruiting Russian population. Sever.Realii reports St. Petersburg dam closed, expecting first flood in 160 years. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police will conduct raids on scooter and bicycle riders over the weekend. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RUF source) reports two "AFU militants" imprisoned for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video showing Military Police operations at a checkpoint in Kursk region. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees in Naberezhnye Chelny forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat. TASS reports Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares due to central bank order. TASS reports Romania will not send troops to Ukraine. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about implementation of law protecting Russian language. Военкор Котенок also suggests importing Cuban medics to address medical staff shortages. Kadyrov_95 posts video of a meeting discussing socio-economic situation in Chechen Republic, aimed at projecting stability and governance. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warning for threats in house chats (up to 5 years).
  • UAF Deep Strikes: TASS reports at 0222Z that an overnight UAF UAV attack on Rostov Oblast (Azov, Millerovsky, Tarasovsky districts) was repelled, resulting in one fatality. At 0224Z, TASS reports a collapsed floor slab in a damaged house due to UAV impact, leading to 20 evacuations. ASTRA confirms one woman fatality in Rostov Oblast. "Два майора" posts video showing damage to a residential house and vehicles in Azov, Rostov Oblast, from a UAF UAV strike. Tsaplienko reports multiple videos of a large fire and black smoke plume "near Moscow after drone attack," with captions confirming "serious fire." TASS reports at 0258Z that UAVs attacked Sergiev Posad district in Moscow Oblast, with 4 explosions in Zvezdochka microdistrict and one casualty. News Moscow and ASTRA confirm a damaged substation and power outages in Zvezdochka and Rabochiy Poselok microdistricts in Sergiev Posad. TASS also reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport at 0227Z, likely due to UAV activity. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) has reported the end of the "red level" UAV threat. TASS reports RF MoD demanding 29M rubles from Perm Telephone Plant "Telta" in new lawsuit, indicating issues with defense industry. TASS reports Russian forces started fighting to create a 20km buffer zone in a new section near Belgorod, according to military expert Andrey Marochko. ASTRA reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Samara and Yaroslavl airports. TASS reports Kazan airport is temporarily not sending or receiving planes. TASS reports 5 microdistricts in Sergiev Posad district, Moscow Oblast, are completely without power, with one partially affected. Colonelcassad posts a video of Russian soldiers receiving a drone signal amplifier ("Incubator 3.0") and EW systems from supporters, indicating efforts to improve RUF drone capabilities. TASS and ASTRA report Russian MoD claims PVO forces shot down 48 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions during the night. TASS further clarifies that 4 UAVs fell in Sergiev Posad district, Moscow Oblast, with 2 casualties hospitalized. OPERATYVNYI ZSU shares photo and video evidence of the substation damage and power outages in Sergiev Posad, Moscow Oblast, confirming significant impact. RBK-Ukraina shares video of damage in Rostov and Moscow Oblasts from drone attacks, showing structural damage to buildings, damaged vehicles, and debris, confirming civilian impact. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports the end of the "yellow level" UAV threat at 0500Z, indicating a reduction in immediate threat but acknowledging prior activity. TASS reports a transformer substation in Shakhty, Rostov Oblast, was disconnected due to a UAV attack, leaving 6,000 people without power. TASS reports temporary restrictions introduced at Nizhnekamsk airport at 0508Z, indicating ongoing airspace disruption. ASTRA further confirms two casualties in Sergiev Posad from UAV attack, citing local authorities. STERNENKO and Tsaplienko post videos confirming the substation fire "near Moscow" (Sergiev Posad). RUF channel "Операция Z" posts photos/videos from Sergiev Posad and Rostov with claims of "enemy attacking Russia," noting "pensioner died" and "fire in Sergiev Posad." RUF channel WarGonzo reports "woman died in Rostov Oblast as a result of UAF attack." TASS reports Saratov airport restrictions lifted at 0517Z. OPERATYVNYI ZSU shares video of damage to residential buildings and vehicles in Azov, Rostov Oblast, claiming "not less than 20 explosions" and hits. TASS reports power has been partially restored in Sergiev Posad. ASTRA reports on fourth consecutive day of UAV attacks in Udmurtia, specifically mentioning Izhevsk. Sever.Realii confirms fatality in Rostov Oblast due to drone attack and publishes videos of Sergiev Posad substation fire, stating 50,000 residents without power. ASTRA video confirms drone shot down in Udmurtia. TASS reports 33 people are receiving inpatient treatment after the UAV attack on Izhevsk, 6 in federal centers in Moscow, and 5 are in serious condition. ASTRA (UAF source) reports the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast was attacked. "Басурин о главном" (RUF source) claims "Ukrainian drones: another act of terrorism." "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) posts video of explosions and IED-like devices in Rostov Oblast, showing civilians with IED-like devices. "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) also posts video of a small fixed-wing drone, likely UAF ISR. "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) posts video of destroyed RUF military equipment with the message "Our tanks will one day reach Dzhankoy!" "Военкор Котенок" (RUF source) reports at least 2 enemy UAVs shot down over Udmurtia, one over Izhevsk, the second on approach. "Операция Z" (RUF source) posts video claiming Udmurtia under attack, with Russian army repelling UAV attack in Izhevsk and region. TASS reports Perm region announced drone danger regime. ASTRA and TASS report temporary restrictions at Perm airport. TASS reports Sergiev Posad power fully restored. Two Majors (RUF source) confirm Udmurtia and provide link. MoD Russia reports 6 UAVs shot down over Udmurtia, Belgorod, and Samara Oblasts between 08:00 and 11:00 MSK. Colonelcassad reports strikes on UAV production facilities in Konotop, claiming 2 assembly workshops hit. Rybar (RUF source) posts "Encircling Madagascar" map with geopolitical analysis on French Indian Ocean territories. Alex Parker Returns posts photo on "friend Rejep" (Turkey) joining drone coalition for Ukraine. RUF source "Voenkor Kotenok" states UAF attacks on Russian territory are an attempt to please Trump, who is "dissatisfied" with Putin's unwillingness to end the war. ASTRA reports at least 10 UAVs fell on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast. ТАСС reports Samara airport restrictions lifted. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння зі сходу!" (Threat of ballistic missile use from the east!). UAF Air Force reports lifting of ballistic missile threat. Perm airport restrictions have been lifted. RUF MoD states that in response to "Kyiv's terrorist acts," RF Armed Forces struck military facilities in Kyiv, an airfield, and an oil refinery with high-precision weapons. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) claims the 14th Separate UAV Regiment hit electrical substation No. 94 "Zagorsk," which powered the FNVC "Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry" in Sergiev Posad, Moscow Oblast, with photo evidence. UPDATE: AV Bogomaz reports 13 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. MoD Russia reports 14 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts. ASTRA reports 14 UAVs destroyed from 11:00 to 13:00 MSK. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts new footage of drone attack on Sergiev Posad. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts video on Azov, showing strong impact. FACT: UAF deep strikes confirmed against Rostov, Moscow, Lipetsk, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions, causing damage, casualties (2 in Moscow Oblast, 1 in Rostov Oblast, 33 injured in Izhevsk with 5 serious), and infrastructure disruption (substation, widespread power outages affecting 6,000+ people, airport restrictions, residential damage, fire in Sergiev Posad, damage in Azov, attack on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, transformer substation in Shakhty). At least 10 UAVs fell on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant. RUF MoD claims PVO forces shot down 48 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions during the night, and 6 more between 08:00 and 11:00 MSK, and 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod. RUF sources also claim 539 drones were launched against Ukraine, with 478/550 targets neutralized by UAF AD. RUF also claims 1 Kinzhal, 6 Iskander-M ballistic, and 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles were launched against Ukraine. Power partially restored in Sergiev Posad, now fully restored. UAF drone shot down in Udmurtia. RUF is actively developing counter-drone measures, including a "Sarmat-Mgla" robotic infantry complex with EW capabilities (RUF source "Два майора" video) and FPV drones specifically targeting UAF EW stations (Colonelcassad video claims "Anklav" type R-E-B station destroyed). "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video of a "barraging munition" (likely Lancet) hitting or narrowly missing a UAF tank near Piddubne, claiming it stopped. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of explosions and IED-like devices in Rostov Oblast, and a drone video (UAF ISR). UAF posts video of destroyed Russian military equipment. RUF sources report 2 UAVs shot down over Udmurtia. UAF drone activity near Zhytomyr (unconfirmed specific target). RUF claims UAF UAVs flew over Sergiev Posad. RUF claims strikes on UAV production facilities in Konotop. Perm region and Perm airport are under drone threat/restrictions. Ballistic missile threat from the East reported, then lifted. Perm airport restrictions lifted. RUF MoD confirmed strikes on military facilities, airfield, and oil refinery in Kyiv. UAF source confirms strike on Zagorsk substation powering a chemical institute in Sergiev Posad. New footage of Sergiev Posad drone attack. Strong impact in Azov. JUDGMENT: UAF maintains capability to conduct effective deep strikes against strategic Russian targets, including critical infrastructure and major transport hubs, inflicting notable damage and disruption, and causing significant casualties. RUF is now publicly acknowledging these strikes, including casualties and widespread airport closures, indicating significant impact and a shift in information strategy, attempting to control the narrative by claiming high interception rates while facing clear operational disruptions. RUF is also actively developing and deploying advanced counter-UAV and EW systems and capabilities. UAF continues to demonstrate propaganda effectiveness with video of destroyed RUF equipment. The claimed prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg highlights internal security concerns, potentially linked to UAF operations or domestic dissent. The flooding in St. Petersburg could further impact RUF logistics/port operations. The Perm region and airport are now also under drone threat. KAMAZ plant restrictions indicate fear of sabotage. RUF attempts to link UAF deep strikes to Trump's statement. The lifted ballistic missile threat indicates a temporary reduction in that specific vector. RUF MoD confirming Kyiv targets shows their claimed intent. The UAF claim regarding the Sergiev Posad target being a chemical institute substation, if confirmed, signifies a deliberate targeting of critical military-industrial infrastructure, suggesting a high-value precision strike. The additional intercepts in Bryansk and Belgorod indicate continued UAF deep strike attempts into border regions. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Multiple fires confirmed in Kyiv following RUF strikes will impact air quality and complicate emergency response. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video confirms large-scale emergency response to fires, including fire-fighting aviation. Damaged railway infrastructure and partial traffic closures will impact logistics and civilian movement. Civilian sheltering in metro stations indicates the severe disruption to daily life. Widespread heavy smoke observed in multiple Kyiv districts further complicates conditions. MinDovkillia (Ukrainian Ministry of Environmental Protection) confirms high levels of air pollution in Kyiv. KVMDA claims low air pollution levels, which contradicts other observations of smoke and fires. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) highlights "Концентрация канцерогенов в воздухе Киева запредельная. Город курильщика." Confidence: HIGH.
• Rostov Oblast (RU): Damage from UAV impacts (collapsed floor slab, residential damage, vehicles damaged) and a fatality will impact local infrastructure and potentially public morale. Substation disconnection affecting 6,000 people creates power outages. ASTRA reports attack on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant with at least 10 UAVs. Confidence: HIGH.
• Moscow Oblast (RU): Significant fire and smoke plume near Moscow indicates substantial damage, likely from UAF UAVs, impacting local infrastructure and potentially public morale in a key population center. Substation damage and widespread power outages in Sergiev Posad are confirmed, impacting infrastructure and daily life. Two casualties confirmed. Power fully restored. UAF source claims strike on substation powering a chemical institute. New footage shows the extent of the attack. Confidence: HIGH.
• Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Saratov, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Perm (RU): Temporary airport restrictions due to UAV activity will disrupt civilian and potentially military air traffic, leading to economic and social disruption. Saratov restrictions have been lifted. Samara, Perm, Izhevsk, Kazan, and Nizhnekamsk airport restrictions have been lifted. ASTRA confirms drone shot down in Udmurtia. TASS reports 33 injured in Izhevsk, 5 seriously. Confidence: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports seasonal movement restrictions for heavy vehicles due to high air temperatures. Confidence: HIGH.
• St. Petersburg (RU): Dam closure and expected flooding ("first in 160 years") will significantly impact local infrastructure, port operations, and civilian life. This could potentially divert internal resources and attention. Confidence: HIGH.
• Kryvyi Rih: Power outages confirmed. High-speed tram non-operational for several hours, impacting urban transport. Strong fire observed after combined attack. Confidence: HIGH.
• Kramatorsk: Destruction of an educational facility will impact local social services. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:

  • Ballistic Missiles: Confirmed repeated ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast towards Kyiv (6 Iskander-M) and 1 Kinzhal. New ballistic missile threat from the east, since lifted.
  • UAVs: Continued widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes, with renewed activity over Kyiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Pavlohrad, Poltava Oblast, and now Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro. RUF sources amplifying claims of successful strikes. Massed UAV attacks observed in Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions. RUF MoD claims high interception rates (48 UAVs, and 6 more over Udmurtia, Belgorod, Samara, and 14 more over Bryansk and Belgorod). RUF sources claim 539 drones were launched against Ukraine. RUF also claims to have captured a "Lyuty" UAF combat drone. RUF is deploying a robotic infantry complex "Sarmat-Mgla" with powerful EW capabilities against UAF drones. RUF FPV drones are actively targeting UAF EW stations. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts. Colonelcassad reports 5 UAF FPV drones destroyed by "VT-40" FPV drones in Kharkiv direction. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv (Colonelcassad). Colonelcassad reports strike on UAV production facilities in Konotop. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ posts video of a Ukrainian 'Baba Yaga' drone being targeted/engaged. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs active in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro regions.
  • Cruise Missiles: Multiple reports confirm cruise missile launches targeting Kyiv Oblast (4 Iskander-K).
  • Ground Forces: "Center" grouping continues offensive operations in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. Russian VDV units heavily engaged in Chasiv Yar, employing FAB glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Company-sized probing attacks and intense artillery/FAB strikes noted in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims limited gains in Kharkiv Oblast (Melove) and striking Oskil River crossings. RUF initiating new buffer zone fights in Belgorod region. 35th Combined Arms Army active in Huliaipole direction, claiming destruction of UAF EW station. RUF maintains offensive pressure in Kherson Oblast. MoD Russia posts video claiming destruction of AFU Zuzana SPG by "Zapad Group" servicemen. TASS claims RUF cleared a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka in Donetsk. "Воин DV" (RUF source) claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade struck Karla Marksa. "Народная милиция ДНР" (RUF source) claims destruction of a ground drone and UAF equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Operatsiya Z claim destruction of the command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. WarGonzo posts video showing Grad MLRS in operation in Donbas. TASS reports RUF liberated Predtechyno in DNR. Narodnaya Militsiya DNR posts intercepted radio from 425th Separate Assault Regiment in Krasnoarmiisk. Operatsiya Z posts video claiming "Otvazhnyye" group advancing towards Pokrovsk.
  • Tactical Aviation: Confirmed use of tactical aviation (likely Su-34/35) for launching KAB (glide bombs) against targets in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes on Mykhalchyna Sloboda (Chernihiv), Novomutyn (Sumy), Vovchanski Khutory, Odnorobivka, Vodyane, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Vilkhuvatka (Kharkiv), Poltavka, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka (Donetsk), Filiya, Dachne (Dnipropetrovska oblasti), Mykolayivka (Kherson). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Operatsiya Z (RUF source) claims a FAB with UMPK was used for the first time in Kryvyi Rih.
  • Specialized Units: Evidence of RUF Eastern Military District (Vostok) personnel training with ORSIS .50 BMG sniper rifles suggests ongoing development of precision strike capabilities. VDV personnel continue to be highlighted in RUF propaganda. RUF units are receiving drone signal amplifiers and EW systems. Mine clearance operations by 49th Army sappers in Kherson direction indicate efforts to secure rear areas. Colonelcassad reports Russian mobile air observation posts actively countering FPV and reconnaissance drones. MoD Russia posts video showing Military Police operations at a checkpoint in Kursk region. Fighterbomber posts video of helicopters performing "cabrirovanie" (evasive maneuvers with flares). Confidence: HIGH.

• Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures (extremist designations, legal proceedings, lawsuits against defense industry, new laws against "dropperism"). The ongoing public mourning for Gudkov and the domestic impact of UAF UAV strikes on Rostov, Moscow, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts (casualties, evacuations, airport restrictions, significant fires, substation damage, widespread power outages, 33 injured in Izhevsk) demonstrate increasing impact on Russian society and infrastructure. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures, while simultaneously claiming high interception rates (48 UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod). RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF propaganda attempts to highlight UAF defections (e.g., Aleksandr Postoenko). Mash on Donbas is advertising mobile internet in occupied Volnovakha. This is a control measure, enhancing communication and integration with Russian networks. RUF source "Рыбарь" expresses concern about "diversions or accidents" implying internal security issues or UAF deep strike effectiveness. The reported death of Transneft VP Badalov, whether accident or not, will be an internal security concern. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg and discusses Ukrainian special services' alleged recruitment of Russian population. "Новости Москвы" reports traffic police raids on scooter/bicycle riders, indicating enhanced local security/control measures. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports imprisonment of two UAF "militants" for terrorist attacks in Kursk Oblast, demonstrating continued judicial control over alleged UAF actions. TASS reports a Russian pilot, Sergey Samoylov, was sentenced to 12 years for financing UAF. KAMAZ employees forbidden from bringing food to work due to sabotage threat, indicating heightened security at critical industrial sites. Mosbirzha suspended trading of UGC shares, possibly linked to internal economic or security issues. Romania's statement on no troops for Ukraine highlights RUF's ongoing attempts to influence NATO cohesion. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ talks about the law protecting Russian language, emphasizing internal cultural control. Военкор Котенок highlighting the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case suggests an attempt to manage internal ethnic tensions. Kadyrov_95's video shows an attempt to project control and stability over regional socio-economic conditions. Sever.Realii reports Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognized the Norwegian Helsinki Committee as an "undesirable" organization. Новости Москвы reports legal warnings for threats in house chats, indicating extended control into domestic communication. TASS reports MoD statement on massed strikes in response to "terrorist acts" by Kyiv. TASS reports Peskov's statement on Putin telling Trump that Russia is waiting for Kyiv to agree on terms for a third round of negotiations. Alex Parker Returns claims "Boomerang has returned," a clear propaganda message regarding UAF deep strikes. TASS reports of rapper OG Buda fined for drug propaganda, indicating continued internal social control. TASS reports Medinsky statement on new history textbook cover promoting cooperation for Russia, indicating narrative control and shaping. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Precision Strikes: RUF maintains and actively employs its capability for long-range precision strikes using ballistic missiles (Iskander, Kinzhal), massed Shahed UAVs, and cruise missiles (Kh-101/555, Iskander-K). The claimed Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield and continued attacks on Kyiv demonstrate intent to degrade UAF air defense and air force assets. RUF is also conducting deep strikes against UAF rear areas (Kramatorsk). Demonstrated ability to target Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro with Shaheds and KABs. Claims of first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih.
  • UAV Operations: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct sustained, multi-axis, massed UAV attacks across various oblasts simultaneously. The renewed air raid in Kyiv due to drones and new threat to Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro signifies continued high tempo. UAF deep strike capabilities using UAVs against Russian territory (Rostov Oblast, Moscow region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm airport disruption, Bryansk, Belgorod) are confirmed, inflicting casualties and damage, including to power infrastructure and residential areas. RUF is actively working to enhance its own drone capabilities (e.g., acquiring signal amplifiers, EW systems). RUF MoD claims high interception rates (48 UAVs, 6 more, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod) for UAF drones over Russia, attempting to manage perception. Colonelcassad video shows Russian mobile air observation posts with small arms engaging drones. RUF claims to have captured a "Lyuty" UAF drone, potentially for intelligence gain. RUF is deploying advanced counter-UAV technology like the "Sarmat-Mgla" robotic complex. RUF FPV drones are actively targeting UAF EW stations. RUF is also conducting reconnaissance UAV flights in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts. RUF FPV drones capable of destroying UAF FPV drones in Kharkiv direction (Colonelcassad). RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv, demonstrating new strike capabilities. RUF capability to strike UAF UAV production facilities (Konotop) is claimed. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ indicates RUF targeting of UAF "Baba Yaga" drones. UAF Air Force reports active engagement of UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro Oblasts.
  • Layered Aerial Attacks: The attack on Kyiv showcases RUF's ability to coordinate ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs in successive waves, designed to overwhelm and exhaust UAF air defense. KVMVA assessment of 550 air targets, mostly on Kyiv, confirms this. The confirmed damage to railway infrastructure, 5 ambulances, traffic disruptions, a book publishing warehouse, and a fire-rescue unit underscore the targeting of critical nodes and civilian response. Damage to Nova Poshta branches further indicates targeting of logistics/civilian services.
  • Combined Arms Operations: RUF continues to effectively integrate air support (FABs, KABs), thermobaric systems (TOS-1A), and drone reconnaissance/strike capabilities with ground assaults in key sectors like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Confirmed KAB usage in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Zaporizhzhia further solidifies this capability. RUF FPV drone units are capable of precision strikes against UAF positions (e.g., mortars, EW stations, tanks). WarGonzo maps reflect RUF claimed advances. MoD Russia video claims destruction of AFU Zuzana SPG by "Zapad Group." RUF claims clearing a pocket between Malynivka and Myroliubivka. RUF claims Spetsnaz strike in Karla Marksa and destruction of ground drone/equipment on minefields near Novopaltovka and Popov Yar, demonstrating specific tactical engagements. RUF claims destruction of command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. WarGonzo shows Grad MLRS operational capabilities. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno. RUF video claims UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery. RUF claims advancement towards Pokrovsk.
  • Information Warfare: RUF sources are actively engaged in psychological operations, amplifying claims of widespread and successful strikes on Kyiv, often with exaggerated or highly aggressive rhetoric, to demoralize the Ukrainian populace and project an image of overwhelming force. They aim to exploit civilian suffering (e.g., showing metro shelters, air pollution claims) to create panic. They also employ narrative manipulation to justify offensive actions and to spread disinformation, as seen with claims of Melove liberation and strikes on Oskil crossings. They are now acknowledging UAF deep strikes against Russian territory, but framing them as "repelled" attacks with limited success, though the widespread airport closures contradict this narrative, as does their specific claim of shooting down 48 UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod, over Russia, indicating a large-scale UAF strike. RUF media is attempting to leverage international political narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticism) to influence perception. Propaganda attempts to highlight alleged UAF defections (Aleksandr Postoenko). RUF "experts" are also disseminating narratives of a global arms race, justifying their own military buildup. RUF media (e.g. "Операция Z", WarGonzo, Басурин о главном) are rapidly disseminating images/videos of BDA in Kyiv and claiming UAF casualties in Russia, supporting their narratives. They are using images of a captured UAF "Lyuty" drone for propaganda purposes. They are also advertising mobile internet services in occupied territories as a means of control. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video claiming prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg by Ukrainian special services, attempting to portray UAF as terrorists and justify internal security measures. "Рыбарь" promotes anti-Western sentiment, connecting travel to Turkey with "paying for the murder of a Russian soldier." TASS claims Kyiv increased shelling of Russian territory by 20-25% after US/RU talks, attempting to shift blame. RUF channels are amplifying Trump's "disappointment" with Putin's unwillingness to end the war, attempting to sow discord or portray Putin as intractable. Alex Parker Returns actively normalizes high-profile deaths within Russia. RUF claims of striking UAF UAV production facilities serve to counter UAF deep strike narratives. RUF focuses on Polish consulate damage to highlight international impact. Военкор Котенок highlights the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case, which is a form of propaganda addressing domestic ethnic tensions. The call for Cuban medics also suggests managing public perception of domestic resource issues. Kadyrov_95's video shows an attempt to project positive internal governance and economic stability. TASS states US halted weapons supplies for political reasons and EU being cut off from Ukraine question are clear information operations targeting Western cohesion. Басурин о главном frames Ukraine's withdrawal from Ottawa convention as irresponsible. TASS reports Peskov's statement on Putin telling Trump that Russia is waiting for Kyiv to agree on terms for a third round of negotiations. Alex Parker Returns's "Boomerang" message reinforces their claim of reciprocal strikes. TASS reports rapper OG Buda fine for drug propaganda. TASS reports Medinsky statement on new history textbook cover. RUF posts intercepted radio communications as propaganda. RUF creates a new "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" medal for military and civilians.
  • Sniper/Precision Fire: RUF demonstrates continued training and equipping of units with high-caliber sniper rifles (ORSIS .50 BMG), indicating an intent to enhance precision engagement capabilities.
  • Logistics & Sustainment: RUF demonstrates continued capacity to produce and launch significant numbers of Shahed UAVs, ballistic missiles (Kinzhal, Iskander), and cruise missiles. UAF Air Force claims 550 air targets were launched by RUF against Ukraine in the past day, confirming very high production/inventory. RUF is able to sustain significant ground operations, including deployment of specialized units (VDV) and heavy fire support (FABs, TOS-1A). The ability to use KABs on multiple fronts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih) shows availability of air-to-ground ordnance. The continued use of BM-21 Grad (as per "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" crowdfunding) indicates reliance on legacy systems alongside new ones. RUF is adapting to UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by the response to the Rostov UAV attack and widespread airport closures, but these strikes are still inflicting damage and casualties, now extending to Moscow region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, and Belgorod, impacting power infrastructure, residential areas, and air transport. The public claims of shooting down 48 UAF UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more recently over Bryansk/Belgorod, indicate the scale of UAF deep strike operations that RUF is now having to contend with and publicize. Sergiev Posad power has been fully restored. Internal issues like lawsuits against defense plants (Perm Telephone Plant) suggest some ongoing challenges in their military-industrial complex, but this does not appear to be critically impacting current operational tempo. The public solicitation of drone enhancements further suggests some gaps in official supply chains being filled by public support. RUF "План на 2026" (Plan for 2026) suggests that "32 missiles ($13M/pc) - stock recovery will take years," potentially indicating challenges in replenishing advanced missile inventories, despite current high operational tempo. The expected flooding in St. Petersburg may temporarily disrupt naval and port logistics. "Военкор Котенок" suggests importing Cuban medics to address a "colossal deficit" of medical workers, which, if true, implies a strain on medical sustainment resources. Confidence: HIGH (overall sustainment), MEDIUM (long-term missile replenishment, medical staffing).

• Intentions:

  • Degrade UAF Air Defense: The primary intent of the current multi-domain attack on Kyiv and surrounding oblasts is to overwhelm and deplete UAF air defense systems, thereby opening corridors for future, potentially more devastating, missile strikes. The layered approach (ballistic, then drone, then cruise) specifically aims for AD saturation. The renewal of the air raid in Kyiv reinforces this intent. KVMVA statement about 550 air targets, mostly on Kyiv, confirms this overwhelming intent. RUF MoD confirms strikes on military facilities, airfield, and oil refinery in Kyiv.
  • Inflict Casualties and Damage: RUF seeks to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure, while causing civilian casualties to generate panic and demoralization. The increased casualty count in Kyiv (26 wounded) and damage to railway infrastructure, residential areas, 5 ambulances, book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, and a fire-rescue unit supports this. RUF propaganda actively highlights civilian displacement and suffering (metro shelters, air quality) to create panic. Targeting emergency services and degrading air quality are designed to further disrupt civilian life. RUF also targets UAF rear bases (Kramatorsk). Targeting of Nova Poshta branches indicates intent to disrupt critical civilian services and logistics. Targeting Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro indicates broader civilian infrastructure targeting, now including urban transport like high-speed tram. The claimed use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih indicates intent to inflict severe damage. The destruction of the educational facility in Kramatorsk also indicates this intent.
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure: RUF will continue high-intensity ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Huliaipole), supported by air and drone assets, to achieve territorial gains and tie down UAF forces. RUF also maintains limited pressure in Kherson Oblast. RUF claims pocket cleared between Malynivka and Myroliubivka, and liberation of Predtechyno, indicating continued offensive intent for local gains. RUF claims of destroying 110th Brigade command indicate intent to decapitate UAF units. RUF claims advancement towards Pokrovsk.
  • Fix UAF Reserves: The offensive axis in Sumy Oblast and now confirmed KAB strikes on Kharkiv are intended to draw and fix UAF operational reserves away from critical sectors in the Donbas. The claim of Melove liberation and strikes on Oskil crossings supports this feinting/fixing narrative and logistics disruption. RUF's stated intent to create a 20km buffer zone near Belgorod reinforces this.
  • Internal Consolidation (RU): RUF leadership continues to prioritize internal security and control measures within Russia, while managing the domestic fallout of military losses and UAF deep strikes. The public acknowledgment of some UAF strikes, including widespread airport closures and the claim of intercepting 48 UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod, likely aims to prepare the domestic population for further such events and reinforce a "war on the homeland" narrative. RUF is also attempting to project an image of global political relevance (e.g., Putin-Trump call) and counter perceived anti-Russian coalitions. Efforts to combat "dropperism" and other financial crimes indicate ongoing focus on domestic control and combating economic illicit activities. The focus on restoring internet in occupied territories (Volnovakha) indicates efforts to integrate these regions. The death of Transneft VP Badalov is an internal security concern. RUF is actively trying to portray UAF as terrorists and is amplifying narratives of internal security threats (St. Petersburg terror plot claim) to legitimize domestic repression and possibly increase public support for the war. RUF traffic police raids signal continued internal control. Sentencing a Russian pilot for financing UAF demonstrates intent to punish any perceived domestic support for Ukraine. KAMAZ plant restrictions and Mosbirzha suspension highlight internal security and economic control. The attempt to manage the narrative around the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case shows intent to control domestic social tensions. The suggestion of Cuban medics demonstrates intent to mitigate and manage domestic resource shortages. RUF MoD states its strikes are in response to "Kyiv's terrorist acts," attempting to justify their actions. Peskov's statement implies a desire for negotiations, shifting blame for lack of progress to Kyiv. RUF targets internal dissent via legal threats for online comments. TASS reports of rapper OG Buda fine for drug propaganda. TASS reports Medinsky statement on new history textbook cover. The creation of a "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" medal aims to boost internal morale and legitimize the conflict. Confidence: HIGH.

• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Sustained Ballistic Missile Volleys: Repeated rapid launches of ballistic missiles (including Kinzhal and Iskander variants) at Kyiv indicate a shift to more sustained, high-intensity missile barrages. New ballistic missile threat from the East, since lifted.
  • Multi-Directional UAV Approaches: Observed UAV approaches from multiple cardinal directions simultaneously across different oblasts continue. The renewed drone threat to Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro suggests a continued high tempo.
  • Layered Missile Attacks: The use of cruise missiles following ballistic missiles and drones against Kyiv indicates a refined tactic to further stress AD capabilities. KVMVA confirms 550 air targets launched against Ukraine, primarily Kyiv.
  • Targeting Rail Infrastructure, Roads & Emergency Services: The confirmed damage to Kyiv's railway infrastructure, traffic disruptions, 5 damaged ambulances, and a fire-rescue unit suggest an adaptation to target critical logistics, troop movement capabilities, and civilian emergency response, as well as civilian movement. Strikes on Oskil crossings further emphasize logistics disruption. Targeting of Nova Poshta branches and book publishing warehouses indicates further adaptation to disrupt civilian services and logistics. Targeting of high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih shows targeting of urban transport.
  • Opening New Ground Axis (Sumy/Belgorod): Initiation of offensive operations in Sumy Oblast and the stated intent to create a buffer zone in Belgorod region remain significant tactical adaptations.
  • Expanded Glide Bomb Use & Widespread Tactical Aviation Strikes: Confirmed KAB usage in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and now claimed first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih, indicates a broader application of tactical aviation support for ground operations across multiple axes, likely to soften defenses and support advances. The General Staff of Ukraine reports widespread RUF aviation strikes across multiple oblasts.
  • Public Acknowledgment of UAF Deep Strikes & Widespread Airport Closures with Interception Claims: RUF sources are now openly reporting on UAF deep strikes against Russian territory, including casualties and damage (e.g., Rostov, Moscow region, transformer substation in Shakhty, Izhevsk, Udmurtia airport closure, Perm airport closure, Bryansk, Belgorod), although they frame them as "repelled" attacks, and now specify high interception rates (e.g., 48 UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod). However, the temporary closures of multiple major airports (Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Perm) due to UAV activity indicates a more significant operational impact being felt domestically in Russia, beyond mere "repulsion" or high interception rates. This is a notable shift in information strategy, possibly preparing the populace for continued attacks or justifying increased defensive measures, while still trying to project an image of control. The claimed strike on Zagorsk substation (chemical institute) by UAF indicates adapted high-value targeting.
  • Enhanced Drone Capabilities (RUF): RUF is actively seeking to improve its drone capabilities through external support and technical enhancements (e.g., signal amplifiers, EW systems), indicating an ongoing adaptation to the drone warfare environment. RUF mobile air observation posts actively engaging UAF drones with small arms indicate adapted counter-UAV tactics. The display of a captured UAF "Lyuty" drone suggests a focus on analyzing UAF drone tech. The deployment of "Sarmat-Mgla" robotic EW platform indicates a new level of counter-UAV integration. RUF FPV drones are now actively engaged in air-to-air combat against UAF FPV drones (Kharkiv direction). RUF ground forces engaging UAF drones with physical means ("anti-drone kung fu"). RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv, indicating a new class of offensive drone being employed. RUF claims striking UAF UAV production facilities in Konotop, indicating adaptation to counter UAF drone supply chain. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ suggests RUF targeting of UAF "Baba Yaga" drones is underway.
  • Targeting UAF EW Assets: Confirmed RUF strike against a UAF EW station in Huliaipole direction indicates an adaptation to counter UAF drone and electronic warfare capabilities, crucial for both offense and defense. Colonelcassad confirms RUF FPV drones are actively targeting UAF EW assets.
  • Internal Security at Industrial Sites: Implementation of strict security measures, like food bans at KAMAZ, indicates RUF adaptations to counter internal sabotage or UAF deep strikes against critical industrial facilities.
  • Medical Resource Management: Suggestion of importing Cuban medics indicates an adaptation to address internal medical staff shortages, likely exacerbated by war.
  • Propaganda Adaptations: RUF's shift to directly acknowledge UAF deep strikes, while spinning them as minor or repelled, and their focus on justifying strikes as "retaliation" (e.g., RUF MoD statement on Kyiv strikes being in response to "terrorist acts") represents an adaptation of their information strategy. Using "boomerang" narrative. New internal award for "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" indicates an adaptation to boost morale. Confidence: HIGH.

• Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RUF demonstrates continued capacity to produce and launch significant numbers of Shahed UAVs, ballistic missiles (Kinzhal, Iskander), and cruise missiles. UAF Air Force claims 550 air targets were launched by RUF against Ukraine in the past day, confirming very high production/inventory.
  • RUF is able to sustain significant ground operations, including deployment of specialized units (VDV) and heavy fire support (FABs, TOS-1A). The ability to use KABs on multiple fronts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih) shows availability of air-to-ground ordnance. The continued use of BM-21 Grad (as per "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" crowdfunding) indicates reliance on legacy systems alongside new ones.
  • RUF is adapting to UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by the response to the Rostov UAV attack and widespread airport closures, but these strikes are still inflicting damage and casualties, now extending to Moscow region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, and Belgorod, impacting power infrastructure, residential areas, and air transport. The public claims of shooting down 48 UAF UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod, indicate the scale of UAF deep strike operations that RUF is now having to contend with and publicize. Sergiev Posad power has been fully restored.
  • Internal issues like lawsuits against defense plants (Perm Telephone Plant) suggest some ongoing challenges in their military-industrial complex, but this does not appear to be critically impacting current operational tempo. The public solicitation of drone enhancements further suggests some gaps in official supply chains being filled by public support.
  • RUF "План на 2026" (Plan for 2026) suggests that "32 missiles ($13M/pc) - stock recovery will take years," potentially indicating challenges in replenishing advanced missile inventories, despite current high operational tempo.
  • The expected flooding in St. Petersburg may temporarily disrupt naval and port logistics.
  • "Военкор Котенок" suggests importing Cuban medics to address a "colossal deficit" of medical workers, which, if true, indicates a strain on medical sustainment resources. Confidence: HIGH (overall sustainment), MEDIUM (long-term missile replenishment, medical staffing).

• Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • RUF's ability to coordinate simultaneous multi-domain attacks across various oblasts and manage multiple ground offensive axes indicates effective command and control for strategic strike operations and operational-level ground maneuvers. Tactical C2 for ground operations in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv also appears functional. Their ability to rapidly deploy BDA and propaganda indicates effective information C2. The widespread, coordinated airport closures across Russia further suggest robust C2 for airspace management in response to threats. The rapid public release of drone interception figures further demonstrates coordinated information operations. The deployment of a sophisticated robotic EW platform ("Sarmat-Mgla") indicates coordinated R&D and operational integration. The coordinated propaganda around the alleged capture of Savchenko indicates continued C2 over information operations. The claimed prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg suggests RUF internal security services maintain effective C2 and intelligence capabilities to disrupt perceived threats. MoD Russia video of Military Police operations in Kursk region demonstrates continued C2 and internal security efforts. The implementation of security measures at KAMAZ demonstrates effective C2 over industrial security. Kadyrov's meeting on Chechnya's socio-economic situation demonstrates C2 over internal regional governance. RUF MoD statement on Kyiv strikes and Peskov's statement on negotiations show coordinated messaging. The new "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" medal issuance also indicates coordinated messaging and morale boosting efforts. Confidence: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense: UAF Air Defense remains active and engaged in repelling massed RUF UAV and missile attacks. However, the sheer volume (550 air targets launched by RUF) and multi-directional nature of the attacks, now including layered ballistic (Kinzhal, Iskander-M) and cruise missile (Iskander-K) strikes, continue to stress AD capabilities. Significantly increased casualties in Kyiv (26 wounded) and confirmed impacts, including railway infrastructure, traffic disruptions, 5 ambulances, residential areas (Hatne), Nova Poshta branches, a book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, and a fire-rescue unit, indicate some saturation of AD. The damaged Polish consulate highlights diplomatic ramifications. Reports of "missiles minus" and "mopeds preliminarily minus" indicate continued successful interceptions, but the confirmed fires and debris fields show that not all threats are neutralized. The repeated air raid alerts and civilian sheltering in metro underline the ongoing challenge. Confirmed interception of 14 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrates continued local AD effectiveness. STERNENKO's initiative to raise funds for interceptor drones highlights this pressing need (reaching 8 million). UAF Air Force reports 478/550 targets neutralized, indicating a high rate of interception despite the volume of RUF attacks. Zelenskiy states "interceptor drones have started working - dozens shot down". UAF South Defense Forces report 18 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed in their operational zone over the past day. UAF Air Force reports continued engagement of strike UAVs over Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, and Dnipro. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video highlighting local aid to Armed Forces, demonstrating continued support structure. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful interception of KABs. Oleksii Biloshytskyi's video highlights police/military readiness and response. Confidence: HIGH.

• Ground Forces: UAF forces in Donetsk Oblast continue to defend against high-intensity RUF assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, and now face challenges in the Huliaipole direction with RUF claims of EW station destruction. UAF forces in Sumy Oblast are actively defending against new RUF probing attacks, including those supported by KABs, repelling 16 assaults. UAF units in Kharkiv are now under renewed KAB and UAV threat and remain in a fixing role, while managing RUF claims of limited territorial gains and logistics disruption. Shadow unit demonstrates continued ISR and precision strike capability (HIMARS strike on Makiivka ammo depot, video of military engagements with US flag). General Staff and OTU "Kharkiv" continue to provide daily RUF combat loss figures, indicating active engagement. General Staff of UAF provides operational information as of 08:00 04.07.2025, confirming continued defensive operations along the front, including repelling 3 assaults in Kherson. UAF General Staff (photo message) directly attributes civilian casualties to Russia (#russiaHITScivilians), indicating proactive information warfare. UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade DSHV shows video of a soldier demonstrating an M32 rotary grenade launcher. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the National Police of Ukraine. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) posts video showing an "anti-drone kung fu" by a Russian occupier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating UAF drone activity in that area and RUF physical counter-drone measures. Oleg Syniehubov (Head of Kharkiv RMA) posts photo message about supporting UAF, showing military personnel and equipment. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos about SSOs instructor. DeepState posts photo message "In your films, you always showed a fictional war with fictional aliens," suggesting a defiant stance against RUF narrative. The Office of the General Prosecutor reports uncovering an illegal scheme for transferring military personnel from combat to rear units, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain combat readiness and counter corruption. ДШВ ЗС України posts photos of a combat instructor and their experience, showcasing UAF expertise. UAF strike in western Donetsk reported. UAF General Prosecutor reports suspicion to ex-Ministry of Defense official for negligence causing ~2 billion UAH losses. Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes: UAF confirmed liquidation of a very senior RUF naval officer (Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Mikhail Gudkov) via deep strike. UAF deep strike capabilities demonstrated effectiveness against Russian territory (Rostov Oblast, Moscow Region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod), inflicting a fatality, significant infrastructure damage (fire near Moscow, collapsed floor slab in Rostov, substation damage in Sergiev Posad and Shakhty, residential damage in Azov, widespread power outages), and operational disruption (multiple airport restrictions, including Izhevsk, Perm, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk now lifted). While RUF claims high interception rates (48 UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod), the confirmed impacts indicate that a significant number of UAF drones are still reaching their targets. UAF Air Defense achieved partial success in intercepting the layered missile/UAV attack on Kyiv, and successfully intercepted 14 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy states dozens of interceptor drones have been successful. UAF (Shadow unit) demonstrated effective long-range precision strike against a RUF ammunition depot in Makiivka (Donetsk) using HIMARS. UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 478/550 targets from 550 launched, indicating high interception success rate. UAF successfully repelled 16 Russian assaults in Sumy Oblast and 3 in Kherson Oblast. UAF South Defense Forces report 18 Shahed UAVs destroyed in their area of operations. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of destroyed Russian military equipment with a defiant message. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video of RUF "anti-drone kung fu" indicates UAF drone activity and effectiveness in forcing RUF adaptations. UAF forces successfully defending against new "Chernika" loitering munition claims in Kharkiv. Successful interception of KABs towards Kryvyi Rih reported by Nikolaevskiy Vanek. Ukrainian sources amplify RUF blogger Romanov's admission of command liquidation and war crimes by 155th Marine Brigade. "Штірліц" crowdfunding demonstrates continued UAF support. UAF is leveraging the damaged Polish consulate for diplomatic messaging. Alex Parker Returns's (RUF source) statements on Turkey/Belgium joining drone coalition implicitly confirm continued Western support for Ukraine. UAF successfully struck a "Shahed" UAV production facility. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and RBK-Ukraina confirm strike on "Shahed" production facility. UAF source КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claims a successful strike by 14th Separate UAV Regiment on a substation powering a chemical institute in Sergiev Posad. STERNENKO's fundraiser for interceptor drones reaches 8 million UAH. Confidence: HIGH.
• Setbacks: The ongoing massed and layered missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other central/western oblasts continues to challenge UAF AD, resulting in significantly increased civilian casualties (26 wounded in Kyiv), damage to civilian infrastructure (residential house in Hatne, damaged residential buildings in Kyiv, 5 damaged ambulances, Nova Poshta branches, book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, fire-rescue unit), and critical railway infrastructure, leading to traffic disruptions and widespread smoke. KVMVA reports 550 air attack assets launched by Russia, almost all targeting Kyiv. The new ground assault in Sumy Oblast, coupled with confirmed KAB support in both Sumy and Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Zaporizhzhia, will force UAF to reallocate resources or commit reserves, stretching defenses. RUF claims of striking Oskil river crossings, if confirmed, represent a setback for UAF logistics. The high number of strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (377 strikes on 11 settlements) indicates persistent high-intensity pressure. RUF claims of destroying a UAF EW station in Huliaipole, if confirmed, represent a setback for UAF electronic warfare capabilities. The 33 injuries (5 serious) in Izhevsk from a UAF drone attack indicate RUF's ability to inflict casualties on Russian territory, but also the human cost of these deep strikes. Shahed attack on Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro represents new operational setbacks with confirmed explosions, power outages, and increased casualties in Kryvyi Rih (now 6 wounded). RUF claims strikes on UAV production facilities in Konotop, if confirmed, would represent a setback for UAF drone production. RUF claims destruction of command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical setback. The disruption of Kryvyi Rih's high-speed tram is a setback for urban transport. RUF claims liberation of Predtechyno, if confirmed, would be a localized territorial setback. RUF claims first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih implies an increased threat from precision glide bombs. The destruction of an educational facility in Kramatorsk, with 2 injuries, is a setback for civilian infrastructure and education. The Office of the General Prosecutor reports suspicions against an ex-MoD official for negligence resulting in 2 billion UAH losses, indicating ongoing internal issues affecting resource management. Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: The sustained high-volume and layered RUF aerial attacks (550 targets in 24 hrs) will continue to deplete UAF air defense missile stocks. This remains a critical constraint. STERNENKO's initiative to raise funds for interceptor drones (reaching 8 million UAH) highlights this pressing need. The "Rubizh" NGU Brigade collecting funds for damaged property and equipment highlights a similar need for ground forces.
• Medical/Emergency Response: Increased requirements for emergency services and medical personnel in affected areas, particularly Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, due to ongoing strikes and confirmed fires, as evidenced by video and photos of emergency response. The 26 casualties in Kyiv, 6 in Kryvyi Rih, 5 damaged ambulances, and a damaged fire-rescue unit further emphasize this. The deployment of fire-fighting aviation for BDA in Kyiv points to significant resource expenditure.
• Manpower/Equipment (Ground Forces): The opening of the Sumy axis and increased KAB use in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih, coupled with sustained high-intensity combat in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Huliaipole), increases demands for manpower and equipment across multiple fronts. The "Rubizh" NGU Brigade's crowdfunding for equipment and "Штірліц" crowdfunding underscores this. UAF 46th Brigade video highlights specific weapon systems (M32 grenade launcher). Oleg Syniehubov's photos of military support from Kharkiv RMA demonstrate continuous resupply efforts. The uncovering of an illegal scheme to transfer military personnel from combat to rear units highlights potential manpower constraints and the need for stricter adherence to deployment protocols. The analysis by Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition suggests that Polish T-72 and PT-91 tanks will be supplied to Ukraine by year-end, compensating for "huge losses in combat equipment," indirectly indicating current losses and future resource requirements.
• Infrastructure Repair: Immediate resources required for repair of damaged railway infrastructure and roads (e.g., in Kyiv) and other damaged civilian buildings (including Nova Poshta branches, book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, fire-rescue unit, educational facility in Kramatorsk) to maintain critical logistics and transport capabilities. Repair of high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih required.
• ISR Assets: Continued need for high-fidelity ISR to track RUF deep strike preparations and new ground axis developments, and to counter RUF EW efforts.
• Civilian Support: Resources for displaced civilians and those seeking shelter, as evidenced by individuals in Kyiv Metro. Zaporizhzhia National University's solemn gathering highlights the human cost and need for civilian support.
• Logistics & Sustainment: Need to protect and maintain logistics routes, especially in Kharkiv region if RUF claims about Oskil crossings are true. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports seasonal restrictions on heavy vehicle movement due to high temperatures, indicating potential local logistics constraints.
• Anti-Corruption Efforts: The Office of the General Prosecutor's reporting of tax evasion during food sales to military units and the illegal scheme for transferring military personnel, and the recent suspicion against an ex-MoD official, indicates ongoing anti-corruption efforts within military procurement and personnel management, which is a positive for resource optimization. Confidence: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF sources (e.g., НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, TASS, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Fighterbomber, Басурин о главном, Операция Z, WarGonzo, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, Сливочный каприз, MoD Russia, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Военкор Котенок, Новости Москвы, Kadyrov_95, Janus Putkonen, Народная милиция ДНР, Старше Эдды, Филолог в засаде) are actively engaged in aggressive psychological operations, using highly charged language and exaggerated claims (e.g., "We said we'd f*** them today," "Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield," "former UAF soldier joins RUF," "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" in Sudzha, RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points, claim of Melove liberation in Kharkiv, claims of striking Oskil river crossings, claiming 48 UAVs shot down over Russia, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod, "Apocalypse in Kyiv," "woman died in Rostov Oblast," "substation destroyed near Moscow," "Yablonovka liberated," "539 drones, 11 missiles attacked Ukraine", "powerful strike" on Kramatorsk, "Kyiv looks like a volcano", "Kyiv fires continue at SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport", "Zapad Group's servicemen destroy AFU Zuzana self-propelled artillery system", "Savchenko captured again", "preventing a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg," "Udmurtia under attack", "Geraniums continue to work over Ukraine without AD opposition," "new targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk," "Chernika" loitering munitions used in Kharkiv, "Концентрация канцерогенов в воздухе Киева запредельная. Город курильщика. Быть добру!", "Бумеранг вернулся", "В Кривом Роге впервые был применен ФАБ с УМПК", "Будут мстить", "Мощный прилет в Краматорске," "Неудержимые" advancing to Pokrovsk) to amplify perceived RUF successes and demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians. They aim to project an image of overwhelming RUF capability and Ukrainian AD failure, while also promoting narratives of defection and internal weakness within Ukraine. RUF's rapid dissemination of BDA via social media (Colonelcassad's photos/videos of Kyiv fires, TASS videos of artillery strikes, Alex Parker Returns video of Sergiev Posad substation) aims to amplify perceived strike effectiveness. RUF sources also spread disinformation about UAF unit morale and highlight perceived UAF weaknesses (e.g., destroyed mortar positions, EW station, captured "Lyuty" drone, destroyed AFU Zuzana SPG). RUF sources are now also reporting on UAF deep strikes into Russia, framing them as "repelled attacks" with high interception rates, but the widespread airport closures and confirmed infrastructure damage/casualties significantly contradict this narrative of "limited success," indicating a real operational impact that RUF is struggling to fully obscure. RUF media is attempting to leverage the Putin-Trump phone call to project an image of renewed diplomatic relevance and potential shifts in US foreign policy and support for Ukraine, which could impact allied resolve if not countered. Trump's statement that "no progress was made" during his call with Putin regarding ending the war in Ukraine indicates a continued stalemate on high-level diplomatic solutions. Propaganda attempts to highlight alleged UAF defections (Aleksandr Postoenko). RUF "experts" are also disseminating narratives of a global arms race, justifying their own military buildup. RUF media "Mash on Donbas" promotes services in occupied territory to solidify control and posts video about "strange things in Mariupol." "Рыбарь" (RUF source) questioning whether incidents are "diversions or accidents" (regarding tankers) indicates an internal security messaging that might attempt to downplay UAF deep strikes. "Басурин о главном" directly labels UAF drone attacks as "terrorism." "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" narrative of UAF recruiting Russian children aims to dehumanize UAF and justify internal repression. "Рыбарь" also attempts to link Western tourism to "funding the killing of Russian soldiers" to deter foreign travel and promote anti-Western sentiment. TASS claims Kyiv increased shelling of Russian territory by 20-25% after US/RU talks, attempting to shift blame to UAF. RUF channels are amplifying Trump's "disappointment" with Putin's unwillingness to end the war, attempting to sow discord or portray Putin as intractable. Alex Parker Returns actively normalizes high-profile deaths within Russia. RUF claims of striking UAF UAV production facilities serve to counter UAF deep strike narratives. RUF focuses on Polish consulate damage to highlight international impact. Военкор Котенок highlights the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case, which is a form of propaganda addressing domestic ethnic tensions. The suggestion of Cuban medics attempts to manage narratives around medical resource shortages. Kadyrov_95's video aims to project a stable governance. TASS states US halted weapons supplies for political reasons, blaming US for aid issues. TASS and Басурин о главном promote narrative that Ukraine is mining western borders to prevent male flight and violating international conventions. TASS reports RUF MoD statement on Kyiv strikes being in response to "terrorist acts." Peskov's statement attempts to put responsibility for stalled peace talks on Kyiv. Janus Putkonen (RUF proxy) engages in highly aggressive propaganda, attempting to demoralize Zelensky and UAF. RUF reports a fine for rapper OG Buda for drug propaganda to maintain internal social norms. RUF new history textbook cover promotes cooperation, shaping internal narratives. RUF posts intercepted radio transmissions from UAF units to demoralize them. RUF institutes a new medal for "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" to legitimize their actions and boost morale. RUF blogger Filolog v Zasade comments on "insanity" of repeating attacks with high losses. Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• The sustained, massed and layered attacks on major population centers like Kyiv, causing significantly increased casualties (26 wounded), damage to civilian and critical infrastructure (railway, residential, traffic disruptions, 5 damaged ambulances, Nova Poshta branches, book publishing warehouse, Polish consulate, fire-rescue unit, high-speed tram in Kryvyi Rih, educational facility in Kramatorsk), and degraded air quality, are intended to erode public morale and create fear. The active sheltering of civilians in metro stations directly illustrates the public impact. However, the confirmed UAF deep strike on Rostov Oblast and now the Moscow region, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, and Belgorod (casualties, evacuations, significant fire, substation damage, residential damage, widespread power outages, airport closures, 33 injured in Izhevsk) demonstrates Russia's vulnerability and could impact Russian domestic morale, potentially generating dissent or questioning of the conflict, particularly as the impact becomes more visible and disruptive to daily life. The resilience of the Ukrainian population will be tested by the current scale of attacks, but official UAF social media channels (e.g., General Staff of UAF, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Shadow Unit, Air Force, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Office of the General Prosecutor, Oleksii Biloshytskyi, ДШВ ЗС України) continue to provide official updates and counter disinformation, which helps maintain public trust and resilience. The Shadow unit's public release of HIMARS BDA in Makiivka serves as a morale booster for UAF. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" photo and video captions ("це прорив, ми радіємо за партнерів," "от же ж пєдікі живучі!", "Це не Київ, це Сергіїв-Пасад") indicate continued UAF morale and resilience, as well as satisfaction with external support or successes and effective counter-propaganda. STERNENKO's crowdfunding for interceptor drones (reaching 8 million) and "Rubizh" NGU Brigade's crowdfunding and "Штірліц" crowdfunding demonstrates public will to contribute to defense. Zaporizhzhia National University holding a moment of silence highlights the collective resolve and remembrance for fallen Ukrainians. Zelenskiy's public statement about the massive air attack and successful interceptor drones is aimed at managing public sentiment and maintaining morale. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko on National Police Day, which contributes to public trust in security forces. Trump's public statement of disappointment with Putin's unwillingness to end the war, amplified by Ukrainian channels, may bolster Ukrainian public sentiment regarding international support and perceived Russian inflexibility. The St. Petersburg flooding event could also impact Russian public morale and divert attention from the conflict. DeepState's defiant message on "fictional aliens" demonstrates continued high morale. Oleg Syniehubov's public support for military personnel reinforces public-military cohesion. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights RUF blogger Romanov's admission of command liquidation and war crimes by 155th Marine Brigade, which could negatively impact RUF morale and public image internally. Sever.Realii discusses deaths of military personnel from Tatarstan, potentially indicating domestic impact of casualties. Alex Parker Returns attempts to normalize casualties in Russia using cynical language ("Бумеранг вернулся"), indicating RUF awareness of the public morale impact of deep strikes. RUF blogger Filolog v Zasade notes the "insanity" of repeated attacks with high losses, indicating potential internal dissent among some RUF-aligned commentators. Confidence: MEDIUM.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Dempster-Shafer beliefs indicate a high degree of uncertainty regarding diplomatic initiatives or geopolitical shifts, with 20% dedicated to uncertainty. While "Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors]" holds the highest belief at 56%, without specifics, this does not directly impact current operational picture. The detention of a Russian citizen in Azerbaijan signals continued geopolitical friction, potentially diverting some RUF diplomatic attention. The continued internal repression of figures like Akunin and the sentencing of a Russian pilot for financing UAF further highlight the Russian government's authoritarian control. The confirmed UAF deep strike on Rostov, Moscow, and other Russian Oblasts will likely elicit strong condemnation from Russia, potentially impacting international narratives and increasing pressure on allies for more robust air defense assistance to Ukraine. The lawsuit against the Perm Telephone Plant hints at potential internal issues within the Russian defense industry that may influence future international perceptions of their capabilities. The public amplification by RUF of the Putin-Trump phone call and criticism of "coalition of the willing" groups is a clear attempt to influence international perceptions of potential shifts in US foreign policy and support for Ukraine, which could impact allied resolve if not countered. Trump's statement that "no progress was made" during his call with Putin regarding ending the war in Ukraine indicates a continued stalemate on high-level diplomatic solutions. WarGonzo reports continued US military aid to Ukraine, reinforcing the current state of international support. Lavrov congratulating Rubio on US Independence Day (TASS) is likely a diplomatic maneuver with no immediate operational impact. Ukrainian Deputy Head of Presidential Office, Andrii Sybiha, publicly states that Putin attacked Kyiv intentionally after the Trump call, indicating awareness of and attempt to counter RUF's information operation. The Office of the General Prosecutor's report on a border guard commander sentenced for purchasing substandard helmets highlights ongoing anti-corruption efforts within Ukraine, which could positively influence international support and trust. ASTRA reports three US senators initiated an investigation into the Trump administration's inaction regarding sanctions against Russia. Kotsnews (RUF source) reports "Danger of Western split and new CIA investigation." These indicate continued international political dynamics that could impact future aid and support. Rybar (RUF source) expresses surprise at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's statements during a meeting with Kaja Kallas, possibly indicating perceived shifts in diplomatic positions. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) posts propaganda regarding Kyrgyzstan helping Azerbaijan build a school using Russian funds, attempting to influence regional perceptions of Russian beneficence. TASS reports Trump is disappointed with Putin and doesn't believe he wants to end the war, amplifying a message that could influence international perceptions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also amplifies this Trump message, which could be a positive for Ukraine's international messaging. TASS reports on potential regular air service between Riyadh and Moscow, indicating continued international engagement for Russia, despite sanctions. Операция Z posts image about Witkoff advocating for lifting energy sanctions, indicating continued lobbying by pro-Russian elements. Damage to Polish consulate in Kyiv will draw international condemnation and diplomatic pressure on Russia. Alex Parker Returns implicitly confirms Turkey/Belgium joining drone coalition for Ukraine. TASS reports Romania will not send troops to Ukraine, highlighting RUF's efforts to influence NATO cohesion. TASS reports that a La Repubblica military observer claims US halted weapons supplies to Kyiv for political reasons, not deficit, which is a narrative aimed at disrupting Western support. TASS also emphasizes Trump/Putin line cutting off EU from Ukraine question. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports China canceling part of an EU summit, possibly indicating diplomatic isolation of EU or shifts in China's stance. Kotsnews reports Turkey moving towards "unfriendly countries" camp, indicating a perceived shift in international alignment by RUF. TASS reports Lavrov discussing potential Saudi Arabia venue for future RF-US contacts. TASS reports on US congresswoman Anna Luna claiming US will not supply weapons to Ukraine if UOC-MP is banned, a clear disinformation narrative aimed at disrupting US aid. TASS reports Peskov on no current plans for specific diplomatic meetings but continued bilateral contacts at various levels. Confidence: LOW (regarding direct, immediate impact on current operations, but MEDIUM for future impact on aid and international diplomacy).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustain Layered High-Intensity Strikes (Kyiv/Central Ukraine): RUF will continue to launch massed UAV (including Shaheds), ballistic missile (Iskander, Kinzhal), and cruise missile (Iskander-K) attacks on Kyiv and other strategic cities (e.g., Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro) over the next 24-48 hours, aiming to exhaust UAF air defense systems and maintain psychological pressure. This will likely include targeting military, critical infrastructure (including railway nodes, energy, roads, postal services, book publishing warehouses, high-speed tram infrastructure, and diplomatic facilities), civilian areas, and emergency services (including fire-rescue units). The layered approach will persist, potentially including renewed waves of drones and the continued use of advanced munitions like FAB with UMPK against urban centers. Expect continued disruption of Russian airspace (airport closures, e.g., Izhevsk, Nizhnekamsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod) due to UAF counter-UAV activity. RUF will also continue deep strikes on UAF rear bases. The confirmed launch of 550 air attack assets, mostly against Kyiv, sets a precedent for sustained high tempo. Confidence: HIGH.
• Continued Ground Offensives (Donetsk): RUF will maintain its high-intensity offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly along the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Huliaipole axes, attempting to exploit any perceived UAF weakness or diversion of resources due to the deep strikes and the new Sumy/Kharkiv fronts. Integrated drone, air (FAB, KAB), and thermobaric (TOS-1A) support for ground units will continue. RUF will continue attempts to eliminate UAF mortar positions, EW stations, and logistics, including further strikes on UAF supply lines. Expect continued RUF use of tactical UAVs in Donetsk Oblast, and intensified ground assaults across the entire Donetsk front. RUF will continue targeting UAF artillery assets and attempting to clear pockets of resistance (e.g., Malynivka-Myroliubivka) and seize settlements (e.g., Predtechyno). RUF will also deploy new munitions/capabilities like "Chernika" loitering munitions. RUF will continue to attempt to target and destroy UAF command elements (e.g. 110th Brigade command). Expect continued RUF propaganda on tactical gains (e.g. Pokrovsk). Confidence: HIGH.
• Escalation of Sumy/Kharkiv Probing Attacks with Air Support and Buffer Zone Creation: RUF will escalate probing attacks and air/artillery strikes along the Sumy border and continue KAB and UAV strikes on Kharkiv to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian reserves, potentially expanding the Ryzhivka salient or opening additional limited axes. This will be accompanied by continued narrative manipulation via state media, amplifying any perceived territorial gains (e.g., Melove, Yablonovka, Predtechyno) and emphasizing the creation of a "buffer zone" in the Belgorod region. Expect continued efforts to disrupt UAF logistics in Kharkiv (e.g., Oskil crossings). Expect continued tactical aviation strikes in these areas. RUF will continue limited pressure in Kherson. RUF will continue reconnaissance UAV flights in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RUF will also attempt to counter UAF drone operations in Kharkiv (e.g., air-to-air FPV drone engagements). Confidence: HIGH.
• Information Warfare Amplification and Internal Management: RUF will continue to heavily promote its perceived successes in deep strikes and ground operations through state media and Telegram channels, aiming to demoralize Ukraine and project strength domestically and internationally. They will likely continue to acknowledge UAF deep strikes on Russian territory but frame them as failures or limited successes, emphasizing high interception rates (e.g., 48 UAVs, 6 more recently, and 14 more over Bryansk/Belgorod), even as widespread airport closures indicate significant impact. Internal security measures and propaganda will continue to manage domestic discontent and internal issues within Russia (e.g., combating "dropperism," managing deaths of high-profile individuals like Badalov, suppressing perceived terror plots, prosecuting individuals for financing UAF, heightened security at industrial sites like KAMAZ, managing ethnic tensions, addressing medical staff shortages, legal threats for online comments, social control via fines like rapper OG Buda). RUF media will continue to disseminate narratives about international diplomatic engagement (e.g., Putin-Trump) to influence perceptions. RUF will also continue efforts to enhance its own drone capabilities and implement new counter-UAV tactics (e.g. mobile observation posts, analysis of captured UAF drones, deployment of robotic EW platforms like "Sarmat-Mgla", air-to-air FPV drone combat, physical engagement of drones), and target UAF EW assets and UAV production facilities. RUF will likely amplify claims of UAF captures (e.g., Savchenko) for propaganda purposes. RUF will also attempt to manage the narrative around internal events like the St. Petersburg flooding. RUF will attempt to link UAF deep strikes to political motivations (e.g., pleasing Trump). RUF will continue to push narratives of Western aid being politically motivated and ineffective, and Ukraine violating international conventions (e.g. Ottawa convention). RUF will use "boomerang" rhetoric to justify strikes on Ukraine. RUF will continue to highlight the new "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" medal to boost domestic morale. RUF will continue to release intercepted UAF radio communications to demoralize UAF. Confidence: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Follow-on Manned Aviation Strikes: After sustained AD suppression via missile/UAV/cruise missile attacks, RUF could attempt to launch more daring manned aviation strikes (e.g., fighter-bombers, strategic bombers) against critical infrastructure or UAF troop concentrations, potentially with stand-off missiles if AD is sufficiently degraded. The confirmed widespread use of KABs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and claimed FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih shows a willingness to use tactical aviation near the border and deeper into Ukraine. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.
• Major Offensive in Sumy/Belgorod Buffer Zone: The enemy launches a larger-than-expected mechanized assault towards Sumy city, exploiting a perceived weakness in the defensive line, aimed at creating a new significant operational axis. This would be synchronized with a commitment of operational reserves to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, or a significant push in the newly declared Belgorod buffer zone area. The confirmed KAB usage and accompanying propaganda suggest a shaping operation for a larger offensive is plausible. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.
• Expanded Targeting of Critical Transport Nodes: RUF could significantly expand and intensify targeting of Ukrainian railway networks, major highways, and bridges across Ukraine, beyond Kyiv, to severely degrade UAF logistics and civilian movement capabilities. This could include a broader campaign against rail junctions, train stations, and rolling stock. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.
• Targeting of UAF HQ/Command Nodes (Successful Decapitation Strike): RUF could successfully execute a precision strike against a high-level UAF command post (e.g., claimed strike on 110th Brigade command), severely disrupting C2 and significantly impacting local or operational effectiveness. Confidence: LOW, HIGH IMPACT.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 6-12 Hours: Continuation of massed and layered aerial attacks on central and western Ukraine, specifically Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro. UAF decision point on prioritizing AD assets across multiple oblasts, particularly in response to cruise missile and renewed drone threats. Increased RUF ground pressure in Sumy and Donetsk.
• Next 24-48 Hours: Evaluation of sustained AD effectiveness against massed strikes. Decision point on potential resource requests from allies based on ammunition expenditure and AD system strain. RUF will assess the impact of their current strikes to determine the next phase of deep operations. UAF decision point on strategic reserve allocation between Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Assessment of impact of strikes on UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. Assessment of long-term impact of UAF deep strikes on Russian military-industrial complex (e.g., Sergiev Posad chemical institute, Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant).
• Long-Term (72+ Hours): Potential for RUF to re-evaluate strategic strike targets based on AD response. Continued high-intensity ground engagements in Donetsk will remain a priority for RUF, potentially seeing a major commitment of reserves depending on the outcome of the Sumy/Kharkiv shaping operations and Belgorod buffer zone efforts. Potential for increased Polish tank supplies to influence UAF ground capabilities. The ongoing St. Petersburg flooding could become a persistent logistical/resource drain for RUF.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Specific RUF Strike Intent: While general intent to degrade AD is clear, the specific target sequencing and long-term objectives (e.g., pre-positioning for future large-scale air operations, specific infrastructure targets) of the current massed aerial attacks require further assessment, particularly concerning critical railway infrastructure, energy facilities, emergency services, and postal services (Nova Poshta), book publishing warehouses, high-speed tram infrastructure, and diplomatic facilities. Confirmation of RUF claims of strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport in Kyiv is critical. Confirmation of specific targets hit in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih, including extent of power outages and duration of tram disruption.
• RUF Missile/UAV Stockpile Levels: Ongoing assessment of RUF production rates and current inventory of ballistic missiles (Kinzhal, Iskander), cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs is critical to predict sustainability of current strike tempo. Verification of RUF "План на 2026" claim regarding missile replenishment rates is critical.
• Impact on UAF AD System Readiness: Detailed real-time assessment of UAF AD system integrity, readiness, and ammunition levels following sustained barrages (550 targets in 24 hrs). Assessment of the effectiveness of new UAF interceptor drones and successful KAB interceptions.
• Detailed Damage Assessment: Comprehensive battle damage assessment (BDA) for all targeted sites, particularly military, critical infrastructure (railways, energy substations, roads, postal services, book publishing warehouses, Polish consulate, fire-rescue unit, high-speed tram, educational facility), and energy facilities, to understand the true operational impact. Confirmation of damage to Vasylkiv airfield is critical. Confirmation of damage to 5 ambulances and their operational impact. Confirmation of damage from RUF strike in Kramatorsk. Confirmation of the threat of collapse in the Kyiv five-story building. Confirmation of the impact on Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, and the specific functional impact on the plant. Confirmation of the extent of damage to Nova Poshta branches and its operational impact. Verification of KVMDA's claim of low air pollution in Kyiv, given contradictory reports and RUF claims of high carcinogens. Assessment of reported explosion near Zhytomyr. Confirmation of power outages in Kryvyi Rih. Assessment of the damage and operational impact of the strike on substation No. 94 "Zagorsk" and its linked chemical institute.
• Primary Enemy Intent (Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod Buffer): The strategic objective of the Ryzhivka operation, increased KAB use in Kharkiv, and the stated 20km buffer zone in Belgorod remains unclear. Requires confirmation whether it is a feint, a limited shaping operation, or the precursor to a main assault. (CRITICAL) Confirmation of RUF territorial gains (e.g., Melove, Yablonovka, Novomykolaivka, Malynivka-Myroliubivka pocket, Predtechyno, Pokrovsk) and the impact of strikes on Oskil crossings is required. Confirmation of "Chernika" loitering munition capabilities and effectiveness. Confirmation of first use of FAB with UMPK in Kryvyi Rih.
• Enemy Order of Battle (Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod Buffer): The composition, strength, and readiness levels of the Russian force groupings opposite Sumy, Kharkiv, and Belgorod Oblasts are not fully confirmed. Identifying specific units is an urgent priority.
• Reserve Availability (Chasiv Yar/Overall): The disposition and commitment threshold of Russian operational reserves for the Chasiv Yar battle and potential Sumy/Kharkiv offensives are unknown. Confirmation is needed to predict the enemy's ability to sustain the current tempo of operations across multiple axes.
• EW Effectiveness: Real-time assessment of Ukrainian EW system effectiveness against Russian Lancet and FPV drone variants in the high-density Chasiv Yar environment, and against RUF counter-UAV systems. Confirmation of the destruction and operational impact of the claimed UAF EW station destruction in Huliaipole by RUF forces.
• UAF Deep Strike Capabilities Assessment: Detailed assessment of the specific UAF assets and methods used for deep strikes into Russian territory (Rostov, Moscow, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Perm, Bryansk, Belgorod) is required to understand current and future deep strike potential and to assess the impact of RUF counter-measures and operational disruptions. Verification of RUF claims of high interception rates. Assessment of the "diversions or accidents" narrative regarding Russian tankers. Assessment of injuries and long-term impact on Izhevsk from UAF drone attack. Assessment of the impact of St. Petersburg flooding on RUF operations.
• RUF Drone Enhancement Impact: Assessment of the technical specifications and potential operational impact of RUF efforts to enhance their drones (e.g., "Incubator 3.0", "Sarmat-Mgla", "Chernika") and EW systems, and their FPV drone air-to-air capabilities. Assessment of the effectiveness of RUF mobile air observation posts and physical counter-drone measures ("anti-drone kung fu"). Analysis of the captured "Lyuty" UAF drone to understand potential RUF intelligence gains. Confirmation of RUF strikes on Konotop UAV production facilities and their impact on UAF drone supply.
• RUF Strikes on UAF Units: Verification of RUF FPV drone's claimed strike on a UAF tank near Piddubne and the UAF armored vehicle near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. Confirmation of RUF claims of destroying the command of UAF 110th Mechanized Brigade. Verification of RUF video claiming UAF evacuating self-propelled artillery near Kursk. Verification of RUF claims of destroying UAF transport in Krasnoarmiisk.
• Savchenko Status: Verification of RUF claim regarding Savchenko's re-capture.
• St. Petersburg Internal Security Incident: Further details on the claimed prevention of a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg, including the identity of individuals involved and their links to UAF, are needed to assess the validity and implications of RUF claims, particularly concerning the alleged recruitment of children.
• Russian Internal Issues: Further information on the lawsuit against Perm Telephone Plant, and the broader implications of sentencing of Sergey Samoylov and other internal security measures for RUF military-industrial complex and domestic cohesion. Assessment of the reasons behind Mosbirzha suspending UGC share trading and the long-term impact of KAMAZ plant food ban due to sabotage threat. Confirmation of Russian medical staff shortages and the feasibility of importing Cuban medics. Implications of the Azerbaijani "ethnocriminal" case for internal security. Implications of the Norwegian Helsinki Committee being declared "undesirable" in Russia. Impact of new legal threats for online comments. Assessment of impact of fine on rapper OG Buda. Assessment of new history textbook narrative.
• Personnel Transfers: Details regarding the illegal scheme for transferring military personnel from combat to rear units.
• Polish Tank Deliveries: Details and timeline for the delivery of Polish T-72 and PT-91 tanks to Ukraine.
• MoD Official Case: Details of the specific negligence by the ex-MoD official leading to 2 billion UAH losses.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. AIR DEFENSE PRIORITY: Prioritize maximum interception of incoming ballistic missiles (Kinzhal, Iskander), cruise missiles, and strike UAVs, particularly those targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and other critical infrastructure. Implement dynamic AD asset reallocation based on real-time threat vectors and prioritize protection of AD assets themselves. Continue efforts to acquire additional interceptor drones and integrate new interceptor drone capabilities. Prepare for potential new ballistic missile threats from the East.
2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Rapidly deploy BDA teams to all impact sites, especially Vasylkiv airfield and other military facilities, to assess damage and operational impact. Prioritize assessment of railway infrastructure, energy substation damage (Kyiv, Sergiev Posad, Shakhty), road network damage, damage to postal services (Nova Poshta), book publishing warehouses, diplomatic facilities (Polish consulate), high-speed tram infrastructure (Kryvyi Rih), and the damage to emergency services (e.g., ambulances, fire-rescue unit) in Kyiv and Moscow regions, and their impact on logistics and power grids. Confirm civilian casualty figures and damage to residential areas (e.g., Hatne, Azov, Sergiev Posad, Kramatorsk). Assess impact of strikes on Oskil River crossings. Confirm loss of UAF EW station in Huliaipole. Verify the status of the UAF tank hit near Piddubne and the armored vehicle near Kupyansk-Peschanoye. Confirm the claimed RUF strikes on SBU Academy and Zhulyany airport. Assess the integrity of the five-story building in Solomyanskyi district. Assess the damage and operational impact on the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant. Verify KVMDA's air pollution claims against RUF claims of high carcinogens. Assess damage in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih, including power outages and tram service disruptions. Conduct detailed forensic analysis of the Sergiev Posad substation strike, particularly if linked to the chemical institute. Assess damage to the educational facility in Kramatorsk.
3. ISR REALLOCATION (Deep Strikes/New Fronts): Increase ISR focus on RUF launch areas in Bryansk Oblast and other potential missile/UAV/cruise missile launch sites to gain early warning of future strike waves. Focus on identifying specific missile types and launch patterns. Concurrently, task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT) to determine the composition, disposition, and intent of the Russian force groupings opposite Sumy, Kharkiv, and the newly declared Belgorod buffer zone areas. Focus on identifying command posts, logistics hubs, and assembly areas. Prioritize identifying launch platforms for KABs and tactical aviation strikes in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih, especially the newly claimed FAB with UMPK. Verify RUF claims of territorial gains in Kharkiv and Donetsk, including the Malynivka-Myroliubivka pocket, Predtechyno, and advancement towards Pokrovsk. Monitor and analyze RUF drone enhancement efforts (e.g., "Incubator 3.0", "Sarmat-Mgla", "Chernika") and counter-UAV tactics, including FPV air-to-air combat and physical engagement of drones, as well as the intelligence value of the captured "Lyuty" UAF drone. Verify RUF claims of high interception rates for UAF deep strikes and assess the "diversions or accidents" narrative. Confirm RUF reconnaissance UAV activity and capabilities. Increase ISR on St. Petersburg to assess the impact of flooding and monitor RUF internal security reactions to the claimed terror plot. Prioritize ISR on Konotop for verification of RUF claims of striking UAV production facilities. Monitor RUF ground force C2 and attempts to destroy UAF command elements. Monitor the claimed activity of 425th Separate Assault Regiment in Krasnoarmiisk.
4. RESILIENCE MEASURES: Advise local authorities to enforce strict adherence to air raid alerts and pre-position emergency response resources in likely target areas, including additional fire-fighting capabilities (including aviation), medical support for urban centers, and resources for rapid railway and energy infrastructure repair. Provide guidance and support for civilians utilizing shelters (e.g., metro stations). Implement measures to quickly restore road traffic in affected urban areas. Monitor and address air quality degradation, especially in Kyiv. Prepare for potential building collapses in heavily damaged areas. Coordinate civilian support for those affected by strikes, including in Izhevsk. Advise on compliance with seasonal heavy vehicle movement restrictions to avoid self-imposed logistics constraints. Work to restore public transport infrastructure rapidly (e.g., Kryvyi Rih tram).
5. ALLIED COORDINATION: Inform allies of the increased intensity and multi-domain/layered nature of RUF strikes, reiterating the urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions. Provide detailed analysis of the new Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod buffer zone threat and the continued targeting of critical infrastructure and emergency services to inform potential increased support requirements. Highlight the effectiveness and strategic impact of UAF deep strikes on Russian territory (including widespread airport closures and verified damage/casualties), while countering RUF claims of high interception rates and framing of UAF deep strikes as political gestures. Proactively counter RUF narratives regarding international diplomatic shifts that could undermine allied support. Emphasize the long-term implications of RUF missile replenishment rates. Reinforce the public messaging that RUF is deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, emergency services, and diplomatic/cultural facilities. Highlight Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts (e.g. helmet procurement case, tax evasion case, personnel transfer scheme, MoD official case) to maintain trust. Leverage Trump's statements of disappointment with Putin to reinforce international resolve against Russia. Highlight the damage to the Polish consulate as a direct attack on international presence. Provide intelligence on expected Polish tank deliveries. Counter narratives regarding US aid halting for political reasons or Ukraine violating international conventions (e.g. Ottawa convention). Counter disinformation regarding US policy on UOC-MP.
6. FIRES (Ground Operations): Prioritize immediate counter-battery targeting of identified TOS-1A systems and artillery threatening Chasiv Yar. Allocate additional FPV drone assets to interdict Russian assault groups crossing open ground and target their rear-area supply lines in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Prepare pre-planned targets for artillery and air assets along the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Belgorod buffer zone axes in anticipation of further enemy advances. Actively target tactical aviation responsible for KAB and FAB with UMPK launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih Oblasts. Prioritize targeting of RUF logistics nodes affecting Oskil River crossings. Implement counter-EW measures against RUF systems targeting UAF drones. Prioritize targeting of RUF counter-UAV systems, including the "Sarmat-Mgla" robotic complex and FPV air-to-air drone units, and new munitions like "Chernika". Prioritize targeting of RUF artillery destroying UAF SPGs. Prioritize targeting of RUF command elements (e.g., those attempting to destroy UAF 110th Brigade command).
7. FORCE POSTURE (SUMY/KHARKIV/BELGOROD BUFFER): Accelerate preparation of secondary and tertiary defensive lines along the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Belgorod buffer zone axes. Earmark tactical reserves for rapid counter-attack but do not commit until the enemy's main effort is definitively identified.
8. MANEUVER (CHASIV YAR): Review and prepare reinforcement plans for the Chasiv Yar garrison. Be prepared to commit experienced tactical reserves to contain and counter-attack any Russian lodgment west of the canal to prevent a collapse of the defense in the Kanal microdistrict.
9. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RUF information operations, specifically addressing claims of UAF morale collapse and unit failures, and highlighting UAF AD successes and deep strike capabilities, including successful deep strikes on Russian territory, and the operational impact of the strikes (e.g., widespread airport closures, confirmed casualties and infrastructure damage, despite RUF claims of high interception rates). Counter RUF claims of territorial gains unless independently verified. Emphasize the costs incurred by Russia due to UAF deep strikes, including casualties, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Address and counter RUF attempts to manipulate international political narratives (e.g., Putin-Trump call, "coalition of the willing" criticisms), leveraging statements like Sybiha's. Leverage internal Russian information from airport closures and St. Petersburg flooding to highlight RUF's inability to fully protect its own territory and manage domestic crises. Counter RUF propaganda regarding captured UAF drones and alleged UAF captures (Savchenko), and allegations of UAF "terrorist" activities or recruitment of children. Actively highlight civilian impact of Russian strikes using official UAF channels (e.g. #russiaHITScivilians). Promote Ukrainian military strength and readiness (e.g., 46th Brigade video, National Police Day, DeepState's defiant message, Kharkiv RMA military support, DSHV combat instructor posts). Counter RUF claims of striking UAF UAV production facilities. Highlight RUF casualties and war crimes (e.g., 155th Marine Brigade, Romanov's admission). Address narratives regarding internal Russian issues, such as medical shortages or ethnic tensions. Counter the "boomerang" narrative. Prepare clear messaging in response to RUF attempts to frame negotiations. Counter RUF propaganda using intercepted radio communications. Counter RUF's new "Donbas and Novorossiya Liberation" medal by highlighting the conflict's human cost. Acknowledge and manage narratives around internal Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts transparently.

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END OF REPORT