Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 040424Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. New reports indicate enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south, observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast (moving south), and eastern/southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (moving west). KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. Klichko and ASTRA/RBK-Ukraina now report 19 casualties in Kyiv as of 0343Z, a significant increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). Liveuamap Source reports a drone hit a residential house in Hatne, Kyiv region. "Два майора" posts photos showing civilians sheltering in Kyiv Metro, reflecting the impact of the ongoing attacks. NEW: OPERATYVNYI ZSU and RBK-Ukraina report partial traffic disruption on Zhmerinska, Yakuba Kolasa, and Vidradnyi Ave due to the night attack. A photo from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" depicts the morning aftermath in Kyiv, emphasizing the damage. FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, significantly increased civilian casualties (19), and damaged railway infrastructure confirmed in Kyiv. A residential house in Hatne was hit by a drone. Civilians are sheltering in metro stations. Traffic disruptions confirmed. JUDGMENT: Layered RUF attack designed to overwhelm UAF AD, targeting both military, civilian, and critical transport infrastructure. Renewed air raid and continued impacts indicate continued RUF intent to maintain pressure and inflict civilian casualties. Confidence: HIGH.

• Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. TASS reports that "Center" grouping artillery has destroyed a UAF mortar position. Colonelcassad reports 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) FPV drone destroyed a UAF mortar. Confidence: HIGH.

• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." Confidence: HIGH.

• Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." NEW: TASS reports Russian forces have weakened UAF defenses and disrupted logistics east of Kupiansk by striking ferry crossings over the Oskil River. FACT: KAB usage confirmed. RUF claim of striking Oskil river crossings. JUDGMENT: RUF claims of Melove liberation are unconfirmed but indicate continued limited offensive intent in Kharkiv Oblast, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. Strikes on Oskil crossings indicate RUF intent to disrupt UAF logistics and create vulnerabilities. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage), MEDIUM (Melove liberation claim), MEDIUM (Oskil strikes, no UAF confirmation).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an alert (Uvaha!), likely related to air threat from these UAVs, and has since issued an "all clear" (0352Z). NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF conducted 377 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Territory:

  • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok due to mourning for Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov further confirms his death.
  • Internal Security: TASS reports Rosfinmonitoring added a minor (born 2011) to its list of extremists and terrorists. TASS also reports Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan and their families are still unaware of the accusations, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction. TASS reports Akunin case to be considered July 14, further emphasizing internal repression. Colonelcassad reports on drone attacks against Izhevsk. TASS reports at 0222Z that an overnight UAF UAV attack on Rostov Oblast (Azov, Millerovsky, Tarasovsky districts) was repelled, resulting in one fatality. At 0224Z, TASS reports a collapsed floor slab in a damaged house due to UAV impact, leading to 20 evacuations. ASTRA confirms one woman fatality in Rostov Oblast. "Два майора" posts video showing damage to a residential house and vehicles in Azov, Rostov Oblast, from a UAF UAV strike. Tsaplienko reports multiple videos of a large fire and black smoke plume "near Moscow after drone attack," with captions confirming "serious fire." TASS reports at 0258Z that UAVs attacked Sergiev Posad district in Moscow Oblast, with 4 explosions in Zvezdochka microdistrict and one casualty. News Moscow and ASTRA confirm a damaged substation and power outages in Zvezdochka and Rabochiy Poselok microdistricts in Sergiev Posad. "Новости Москвы" provides video of the significant smoke plume, consistent with a large fire or explosion. This confirms UAF deep strike capabilities against Russian rear areas and infrastructure, including critical areas near the capital, inflicting casualties and infrastructure damage. TASS also reports on Deputy Head of Roshydromet accused of fraud, indicating continued internal corruption issues. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport at 0227Z, likely due to UAV activity. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) has reported the end of the "red level" UAV threat. TASS reports RF MoD demanding 29M rubles from Perm Telephone Plant "Telta" in new lawsuit, indicating issues with defense industry. TASS reports Russian forces started fighting to create a 20km buffer zone in a new section near Belgorod, according to military expert Andrey Marochko. NEW: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Samara and Yaroslavl airports. TASS reports Kazan airport is temporarily not sending or receiving planes. TASS reports 5 microdistricts in Sergiev Posad district, Moscow Oblast, are completely without power, with one partially affected. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a photo message implying a breakthrough and satisfaction with partners (possibly referring to UAF deep strikes or western aid). A video from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shows aerial footage of a destroyed building with military personnel searching rubble, likely aftermath of strikes, captioned "😎🇺🇦от же ж пєдікі живучі!" (suggesting resilience). Colonelcassad posts a video of Russian soldiers receiving a drone signal amplifier ("Incubator 3.0") and EW systems from supporters, indicating efforts to improve RUF drone capabilities. FACT: UAF deep strikes confirmed against Rostov, Moscow, Lipetsk, Samara, Yaroslavl, and Kazan regions, causing damage, casualties, and infrastructure disruption (substation, power outage, airport restriction, residential damage). JUDGMENT: UAF maintains capability to conduct effective deep strikes against strategic Russian targets, including critical infrastructure and major transport hubs. RUF is now publicly acknowledging some of these strikes with BDA and widespread airport closures, indicating significant impact and a shift in information strategy. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Multiple fires confirmed in Kyiv following RUF strikes will impact air quality and complicate emergency response. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video confirms large-scale emergency response to fires. Damaged railway infrastructure and partial traffic closures will impact logistics and civilian movement. Civilian sheltering in metro stations indicates the severe disruption to daily life. Confidence: HIGH.
• Rostov Oblast (RU): Damage from UAV impacts (collapsed floor slab, residential damage) and a fatality will impact local infrastructure and potentially public morale. Confidence: HIGH.
• Moscow Oblast (RU): Significant fire and smoke plume near Moscow indicates substantial damage, likely from UAF UAVs, impacting local infrastructure and potentially public morale in a key population center. Substation damage and widespread power outages in Sergiev Posad are confirmed. Confidence: HIGH.
• Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan (RU): Temporary airport restrictions due to UAV activity will disrupt civilian and potentially military air traffic. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:

  • Ballistic Missiles: Confirmed repeated ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast towards Kyiv.
  • UAVs: Continued widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes, with renewed activity over Kyiv. RUF sources amplifying claims of successful strikes. Massed UAV attacks observed in Rostov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, and Kazan regions.
  • Cruise Missiles: Multiple reports confirm cruise missile launches targeting Kyiv Oblast.
  • Ground Forces: "Center" grouping continues offensive operations in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. Russian VDV units heavily engaged in Chasiv Yar, employing FAB glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Company-sized probing attacks and intense artillery/FAB strikes noted in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims limited gains in Kharkiv Oblast (Melove) and striking Oskil River crossings. RUF initiating new buffer zone fights in Belgorod region.
  • Tactical Aviation: Confirmed use of tactical aviation (likely Su-34/35) for launching KAB (glide bombs) against targets in Sumy and now Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Specialized Units: Evidence of RUF Eastern Military District (Vostok) personnel training with ORSIS .50 BMG sniper rifles suggests ongoing development of precision strike capabilities. VDV personnel continue to be highlighted in RUF propaganda. RUF units are receiving drone signal amplifiers and EW systems. Confidence: HIGH.

• Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures (extremist designations, legal proceedings, lawsuits against defense industry). The ongoing public mourning for Gudkov and the domestic impact of UAF UAV strikes on Rostov, Saratov, Moscow, Samara, Yaroslavl, and Kazan Oblasts (casualties, evacuations, airport restrictions, significant fires, substation damage, widespread power outages) demonstrate increasing impact on Russian society and infrastructure. RUF actively acknowledges some BDA from UAF deep strikes, a shift in information strategy, now including widespread airport closures. RUF media focuses on geopolitical narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticisms) to distract from domestic issues and legitimize their actions. RUF propaganda attempts to highlight UAF defections (e.g., Aleksandr Postoenko). Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Precision Strikes: RUF maintains and actively employs its capability for long-range precision strikes using ballistic missiles (Iskander), massed Shahed UAVs, and cruise missiles (Kh-101/555). The claimed Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield and continued attacks on Kyiv demonstrate intent to degrade UAF air defense and air force assets.
  • UAV Operations: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct sustained, multi-axis, massed UAV attacks across various oblasts simultaneously. The renewed air raid in Kyiv due to drones signifies continued high tempo. UAF deep strike capabilities using UAVs against Russian territory (Rostov Oblast, Moscow region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan airport disruption) are confirmed, inflicting casualties and damage, including to power infrastructure and residential areas. RUF is actively working to enhance its own drone capabilities (e.g., acquiring signal amplifiers, EW systems).
  • Layered Aerial Attacks: The attack on Kyiv showcases RUF's ability to coordinate ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs in successive waves, designed to overwhelm and exhaust UAF air defense. The confirmed damage to railway infrastructure and traffic disruptions underscore the targeting of critical nodes.
  • Combined Arms Operations: RUF continues to effectively integrate air support (FABs), thermobaric systems (TOS-1A), and drone reconnaissance/strike capabilities with ground assaults in key sectors like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Confirmed KAB usage in Sumy and Kharkiv further solidifies this capability. RUF FPV drone units are capable of precision strikes against UAF positions (e.g., mortars).
  • Information Warfare: RUF sources are actively engaged in psychological operations, amplifying claims of widespread and successful strikes on Kyiv, often with exaggerated or highly aggressive rhetoric, to demoralize the Ukrainian populace and project an image of overwhelming force. They aim to exploit civilian suffering (e.g., showing metro shelters) to create panic. They also employ narrative manipulation to justify offensive actions and to spread disinformation, as seen with claims of Melove liberation and strikes on Oskil crossings. They are now acknowledging UAF deep strikes against Russian territory, but framing them as "repelled" attacks with limited success, though the widespread airport closures contradict this narrative. RUF media is attempting to leverage international political narratives (Putin-Trump, "coalition of the willing" criticism) to influence perception. Propaganda attempts to highlight alleged UAF defections.
  • Sniper/Precision Fire: RUF demonstrates continued training and equipping of units with high-caliber sniper rifles (ORSIS .50 BMG), indicating an intent to enhance precision engagement capabilities.
  • Logistics & Sustainment: RUF is capable of sustaining multiple offensive axes and conducting deep strikes, indicating continued production and supply of munitions and personnel. Efforts to improve drone capabilities through public support further indicate sustainment efforts. Confidence: HIGH.

• Intentions:

  • Degrade UAF Air Defense: The primary intent of the current multi-domain attack on Kyiv and surrounding oblasts is to overwhelm and deplete UAF air defense systems, thereby opening corridors for future, potentially more devastating, missile strikes. The layered approach (ballistic, then drone, then cruise) specifically aims for AD saturation. The renewal of the air raid in Kyiv reinforces this intent.
  • Inflict Casualties and Damage: RUF seeks to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure, while causing civilian casualties to generate panic and demoralization. The increased casualty count in Kyiv and damage to railway infrastructure supports this. RUF propaganda actively highlights civilian displacement and suffering (metro shelters) to further demoralize.
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure: RUF will continue high-intensity ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), supported by air and drone assets, to achieve territorial gains and tie down UAF forces.
  • Fix UAF Reserves: The offensive axis in Sumy Oblast and now confirmed KAB strikes on Kharkiv are intended to draw and fix UAF operational reserves away from critical sectors in the Donbas. The claim of Melove liberation and strikes on Oskil crossings supports this feinting/fixing narrative and logistics disruption. RUF's stated intent to create a 20km buffer zone near Belgorod reinforces this.
  • Internal Consolidation (RU): RUF leadership continues to prioritize internal security and control measures within Russia, while managing the domestic fallout of military losses and UAF deep strikes. The public acknowledgment of some UAF strikes, including widespread airport closures, likely aims to prepare the domestic population for further such events and reinforce a "war on the homeland" narrative. RUF is also attempting to project an image of global political relevance (e.g., Putin-Trump call) and counter perceived anti-Russian coalitions. Confidence: HIGH.

• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Sustained Ballistic Missile Volleys: Repeated rapid launches of ballistic missiles at Kyiv indicate a shift to more sustained, high-intensity missile barrages.
  • Multi-Directional UAV Approaches: Observed UAV approaches from multiple cardinal directions simultaneously across different oblasts continue. The renewed drone threat to Kyiv suggests a continued high tempo.
  • Layered Missile Attacks: The use of cruise missiles following ballistic missiles and drones against Kyiv indicates a refined tactic to further stress AD capabilities.
  • Targeting Rail Infrastructure & Roads: The confirmed damage to Kyiv's railway infrastructure and traffic disruptions suggest an adaptation to target critical logistics and troop movement capabilities, as well as civilian movement. Strikes on Oskil River crossings further emphasize logistics disruption.
  • Opening New Ground Axis (Sumy/Belgorod): Initiation of offensive operations in Sumy Oblast and the stated intent to create a buffer zone in Belgorod region remain significant tactical adaptations.
  • Expanded Glide Bomb Use: Confirmed KAB usage in both Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts indicates a broader application of tactical aviation support for ground operations across multiple axes, likely to soften defenses and support advances.
  • Public Acknowledgment of UAF Deep Strikes & Widespread Airport Closures: RUF sources are now openly reporting on UAF deep strikes against Russian territory, including casualties and damage (e.g., Rostov, Moscow region), although they frame them as "repelled" attacks. However, the temporary closures of multiple major airports (Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan) due to UAV activity indicates a more significant operational impact being felt domestically in Russia, beyond mere "repulsion." This is a subtle but notable shift in information strategy, possibly preparing the populace for continued attacks or justifying increased defensive measures.
  • Enhanced Drone Capabilities (RUF): RUF is actively seeking to improve its drone capabilities through external support and technical enhancements (e.g., signal amplifiers, EW systems), indicating an ongoing adaptation to the drone warfare environment. Confidence: HIGH.

• Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RUF demonstrates continued capacity to produce and launch significant numbers of Shahed UAVs, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
  • RUF is able to sustain significant ground operations, including deployment of specialized units (VDV) and heavy fire support (FABs, TOS-1A). The ability to use KABs on multiple fronts (Sumy, Kharkiv) shows availability of air-to-ground ordnance.
  • RUF is adapting to UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by the response to the Rostov UAV attack and widespread airport closures, but these strikes are still inflicting damage and casualties, now extending to Moscow region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, and Kazan, impacting power infrastructure, residential areas, and air transport.
  • Internal issues like lawsuits against defense plants (Perm Telephone Plant) suggest some ongoing challenges in their military-industrial complex, but this does not appear to be critically impacting current operational tempo. The public solicitation of drone enhancements further suggests some gaps in official supply chains being filled by public support. Confidence: HIGH.

• Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • RUF's ability to coordinate simultaneous multi-domain attacks across various oblasts and manage multiple ground offensive axes indicates effective command and control for strategic strike operations and operational-level ground maneuvers. Tactical C2 for ground operations in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv also appears functional. Their ability to rapidly deploy BDA and propaganda indicates effective information C2. The widespread, coordinated airport closures across Russia further suggest robust C2 for airspace management in response to threats. Confidence: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense: UAF Air Defense remains active and engaged in repelling massed RUF UAV and missile attacks. However, the sheer volume and multi-directional nature of the attacks, now including layered ballistic and cruise missile strikes, continue to stress AD capabilities. Significantly increased casualties in Kyiv (now 19 wounded) and confirmed impacts, including railway infrastructure, traffic disruptions, and residential areas (Hatne), indicate some saturation of AD. Reports of "missiles minus" and "mopeds preliminarily minus" indicate continued successful interceptions, but the confirmed fires and debris fields show that not all threats are neutralized. The repeated air raid alerts and civilian sheltering in metro underline the ongoing challenge. Confidence: HIGH.

• Ground Forces: UAF forces in Donetsk Oblast continue to defend against high-intensity RUF assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. UAF forces in Sumy Oblast are actively defending against new RUF probing attacks, including those supported by KABs. UAF units in Kharkiv are now under renewed KAB threat and remain in a fixing role, while managing RUF claims of limited territorial gains and logistics disruption. Shadow unit demonstrates continued ISR and precision strike capability (HIMARS strike on Makiivka ammo depot). Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes: UAF confirmed liquidation of a very senior RUF naval officer (Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Mikhail Gudkov) via deep strike. UAF deep strike capabilities demonstrated effectiveness against Russian territory (Rostov Oblast, Moscow Region, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan), inflicting a fatality, significant infrastructure damage (fire near Moscow, collapsed floor slab in Rostov, substation damage in Sergiev Posad, residential damage in Azov, widespread power outages), and operational disruption (multiple airport restrictions). UAF air defense achieved partial success in intercepting the layered missile/UAV attack on Kyiv. UAF (Shadow unit) demonstrated effective long-range precision strike against a RUF ammunition depot in Makiivka (Donetsk) using HIMARS. Confidence: HIGH.
• Setbacks: The ongoing massed and layered missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other central/western oblasts continues to challenge UAF AD, resulting in significantly increased civilian casualties (19 wounded in Kyiv), damage to civilian infrastructure (residential house in Hatne), and critical railway infrastructure, leading to traffic disruptions. The new ground assault in Sumy Oblast, coupled with confirmed KAB support in both Sumy and Kharkiv, will force UAF to reallocate resources or commit reserves, stretching defenses. RUF claims of striking Oskil river crossings, if confirmed, represent a setback for UAF logistics. The high number of strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (377 strikes on 11 settlements) indicates persistent high-intensity pressure. Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: The sustained high-volume and layered RUF aerial attacks will continue to deplete UAF air defense missile stocks. This remains a critical constraint.
• Medical/Emergency Response: Increased requirements for emergency services and medical personnel in affected areas, particularly Kyiv, due to ongoing strikes and confirmed fires, as evidenced by video of emergency response.
• Manpower/Equipment (Ground Forces): The opening of the Sumy axis and increased KAB use in Kharkiv, coupled with sustained high-intensity combat in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), increases demands for manpower and equipment across multiple fronts.
• Infrastructure Repair: Immediate resources required for repair of damaged railway infrastructure and roads (e.g., in Kyiv) to maintain critical logistics and transport capabilities.
• ISR Assets: Continued need for high-fidelity ISR to track RUF deep strike preparations and new ground axis developments.
• Civilian Support: Resources for displaced civilians and those seeking shelter, as evidenced by individuals in Kyiv Metro. Confidence: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF sources (e.g., НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, TASS, Два майора) are actively engaged in aggressive psychological operations, using highly charged language and exaggerated claims (e.g., "We said we'd f*** them today," "Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield," "former UAF soldier joins RUF," "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" in Sudzha, RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points, claim of Melove liberation in Kharkiv, claims of striking Oskil river crossings) to amplify perceived RUF successes and demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians. They aim to project an image of overwhelming RUF capability and Ukrainian AD failure, while also promoting narratives of defection and internal weakness within Ukraine. RUF's rapid dissemination of BDA via social media (Colonelcassad's photos/videos of Kyiv fires, TASS videos of artillery strikes) aims to amplify perceived strike effectiveness. RUF sources also spread disinformation about UAF unit morale and highlight perceived UAF weaknesses (e.g., destroyed mortar positions). RUF sources are now also reporting on UAF deep strikes into Russia, framing them as "repelled attacks" with limited success, which is a notable shift from previous denial or silence. However, the widespread and publicly reported airport closures across Russia due to UAV activity significantly contradict this narrative of "limited success," indicating a real operational impact. RUF channels are attempting to leverage the Putin-Trump phone call to project an image of renewed diplomatic relevance and potential shifts in international support for Ukraine, as well as criticizing "coalition of the willing" groups. Propaganda attempts to highlight alleged UAF defections (Aleksandr Postoenko). RUF "experts" are also disseminating narratives of a global arms race, justifying their own military buildup. Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• The sustained, massed and layered attacks on major population centers like Kyiv, causing significantly increased casualties (19 wounded), damage to civilian and critical infrastructure (railway, residential, traffic disruptions), are intended to erode public morale and create fear. The active sheltering of civilians in metro stations directly illustrates the public impact. However, the confirmed UAF deep strike on Rostov Oblast and now the Moscow region, Samara, Yaroslavl, and Kazan (casualty, evacuations, significant fire, substation damage, residential damage, widespread airport closures) demonstrates Russia's vulnerability and could impact Russian domestic morale, potentially generating dissent or questioning of the conflict, particularly as the impact becomes more visible and disruptive to daily life. The resilience of the Ukrainian population will be tested by the current scale of attacks, but official UAF social media channels continue to provide official updates and counter disinformation, which helps maintain public trust and resilience. The Shadow unit's public release of HIMARS BDA in Makiivka serves as a morale booster for UAF. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" photo and video captions ("це прорив, ми радіємо за партнерів," "от же ж пєдікі живучі!") indicate continued UAF morale and resilience, as well as satisfaction with external support or successes. Confidence: MEDIUM.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Dempster-Shafer beliefs indicate a high degree of uncertainty regarding diplomatic initiatives or geopolitical shifts, with 20% dedicated to uncertainty. While "Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors]" holds the highest belief at 56%, without specifics, this does not directly impact current operational picture. The detention of a Russian citizen in Azerbaijan signals continued geopolitical friction, potentially diverting some RUF diplomatic attention. The continued internal repression of figures like Akunin further highlights the Russian government's authoritarian control. The confirmed UAF deep strike on Rostov, Moscow, and other Russian Oblasts will likely elicit strong condemnation from Russia, potentially impacting international narratives and increasing pressure on allies for more robust air defense assistance to Ukraine. The lawsuit against the Perm Telephone Plant hints at potential internal issues within the Russian defense industry that may influence future international perceptions of their capabilities. The public amplification by RUF of the Putin-Trump phone call and criticism of "coalition of the willing" groups is a clear attempt to influence international perceptions of potential shifts in US foreign policy and support for Ukraine, which could impact allied resolve if not countered. WarGonzo reports continued US military aid to Ukraine, reinforcing the current state of international support. Confidence: LOW (regarding direct, immediate impact on current operations, but MEDIUM for future impact on aid and international diplomacy).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustain Layered High-Intensity Strikes (Kyiv/Central Ukraine): RUF will continue to launch massed UAV, ballistic missile, and cruise missile attacks on Kyiv and other strategic cities (e.g., Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk) over the next 24-48 hours, aiming to exhaust UAF air defense systems and maintain psychological pressure. This will likely include targeting military, critical infrastructure (including railway nodes, energy, and road networks), and civilian areas. The layered approach (Iskanders, Geraniums, cruise missiles) will persist, potentially including renewed waves of drones. Expect continued disruption of Russian airspace (airport closures) due to UAF counter-UAV activity. Confidence: HIGH.
• Continued Ground Offensives (Donetsk): RUF will maintain its high-intensity offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, attempting to exploit any perceived UAF weakness or diversion of resources due to the deep strikes and the new Sumy/Kharkiv fronts. Integrated drone, air (FAB), and thermobaric (TOS-1A) support for ground units will continue. RUF will continue attempts to eliminate UAF mortar positions and logistics, including further strikes on UAF supply lines. Confidence: HIGH.
• Escalation of Sumy/Kharkiv Probing Attacks with Air Support and Buffer Zone Creation: RUF will escalate probing attacks and air/artillery strikes along the Sumy border and continue KAB strikes on Kharkiv to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian reserves, potentially expanding the Ryzhivka salient or opening additional limited axes. This will be accompanied by continued narrative manipulation via state media, amplifying any perceived territorial gains (e.g., Melove) and emphasizing the creation of a "buffer zone" in the Belgorod region. Expect continued efforts to disrupt UAF logistics in Kharkiv (e.g., Oskil crossings). Confidence: HIGH.
• Information Warfare Amplification and Internal Management: RUF will continue to heavily promote its perceived successes in deep strikes and ground operations through state media and Telegram channels, aiming to demoralize Ukraine and project strength domestically and internationally. They will likely continue to acknowledge UAF deep strikes on Russian territory but frame them as failures or limited successes, even as widespread airport closures indicate significant impact. Internal security measures and propaganda will continue to manage domestic discontent and internal issues within Russia. RUF media will continue to disseminate narratives about international diplomatic engagement (e.g., Putin-Trump) to influence perceptions. RUF will also continue efforts to enhance its own drone capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Follow-on Manned Aviation Strikes: After sustained AD suppression via missile/UAV/cruise missile attacks, RUF could attempt to launch more daring manned aviation strikes (e.g., fighter-bombers, strategic bombers) against critical infrastructure or UAF troop concentrations, potentially with stand-off missiles if AD is sufficiently degraded. The confirmed use of KABs in Sumy and Kharkiv shows a willingness to use tactical aviation near the border. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.
• Major Offensive in Sumy/Belgorod Buffer Zone: The enemy launches a larger-than-expected mechanized assault towards Sumy city, exploiting a perceived weakness in the defensive line, aimed at creating a new significant operational axis. This would be synchronized with a commitment of operational reserves to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, or a significant push in the newly declared Belgorod buffer zone area. The confirmed KAB usage and accompanying propaganda suggest a shaping operation for a larger offensive is plausible. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 6-12 Hours: Continuation of massed and layered aerial attacks on central and western Ukraine, specifically Kyiv. UAF decision point on prioritizing AD assets across multiple oblasts, particularly in response to cruise missile and renewed drone threats. Increased RUF ground pressure in Sumy and Donetsk.
• Next 24-48 Hours: Evaluation of sustained AD effectiveness against massed strikes. Decision point on potential resource requests from allies based on ammunition expenditure and AD system strain. RUF will assess the impact of their current strikes to determine the next phase of deep operations. UAF decision point on strategic reserve allocation between Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk.
• Long-Term (72+ Hours): Potential for RUF to re-evaluate strategic strike targets based on AD response. Continued high-intensity ground engagements in Donetsk will remain a priority for RUF, potentially seeing a major commitment of reserves depending on the outcome of the Sumy/Kharkiv shaping operations and Belgorod buffer zone efforts.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Specific RUF Strike Intent: While general intent to degrade AD is clear, the specific target sequencing and long-term objectives (e.g., pre-positioning for future large-scale air operations, specific infrastructure targets) of the current massed aerial attacks require further assessment, particularly concerning critical railway infrastructure and road networks.
• RUF Missile/UAV Stockpile Levels: Ongoing assessment of RUF production rates and current inventory of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs is critical to predict sustainability of current strike tempo.
• Impact on UAF AD System Readiness: Detailed real-time assessment of UAF AD system integrity, readiness, and ammunition levels following sustained barrages.
• Detailed Damage Assessment: Comprehensive battle damage assessment (BDA) for all targeted sites, particularly military, critical infrastructure (railways, energy substations, roads), and energy facilities, to understand the true operational impact. Confirmation of damage to Vasylkiv airfield is critical.
• Primary Enemy Intent (Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod Buffer): The strategic objective of the Ryzhivka operation, increased KAB use in Kharkiv, and the stated 20km buffer zone in Belgorod remains unclear. Requires confirmation whether it is a feint, a limited shaping operation, or the precursor to a main assault. (CRITICAL) Confirmation of RUF territorial gains (e.g., Melove) and the impact of strikes on Oskil crossings is required.
• Enemy Order of Battle (Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod Buffer): The composition, strength, and readiness levels of the Russian force groupings opposite Sumy, Kharkiv, and Belgorod Oblasts are not fully confirmed. Identifying specific units is an urgent priority.
• Reserve Availability (Chasiv Yar/Overall): The disposition and commitment threshold of Russian operational reserves for the Chasiv Yar battle and potential Sumy/Kharkiv offensives are unknown. Confirmation is needed to predict the enemy's ability to sustain the current tempo of operations across multiple axes.
• UAF Deep Strike Capabilities Assessment: Detailed assessment of the specific UAF assets and methods used for deep strikes into Russian territory (Rostov, Moscow, Saratov, Samara, Yaroslavl, Kazan) is required to understand current and future deep strike potential and to assess the impact of RUF counter-measures and operational disruptions.
• RUF Drone Enhancement Impact: Assessment of the technical specifications and potential operational impact of RUF efforts to enhance their drones (e.g., "Incubator 3.0" signal amplifier, EW systems).

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. AIR DEFENSE PRIORITY: Prioritize maximum interception of incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and strike UAVs, particularly those targeting Kyiv and other critical infrastructure. Implement dynamic AD asset reallocation based on real-time threat vectors and prioritize protection of AD assets themselves.
2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Rapidly deploy BDA teams to all impact sites, especially Vasylkiv airfield and other military facilities, to assess damage and operational impact. Prioritize assessment of railway infrastructure, energy substation damage, and road network damage in Kyiv and Moscow regions, and their impact on logistics and power grids. Confirm civilian casualty figures and damage to residential areas (e.g., Hatne, Azov). Assess impact of strikes on Oskil River crossings.
3. ISR REALLOCATION (Deep Strikes/New Fronts): Increase ISR focus on RUF launch areas in Bryansk Oblast and other potential missile/UAV/cruise missile launch sites to gain early warning of future strike waves. Focus on identifying specific missile types and launch patterns. Concurrently, task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT) to determine the composition, disposition, and intent of the Russian force groupings opposite Sumy, Kharkiv, and the newly declared Belgorod buffer zone areas. Focus on identifying command posts, logistics hubs, and assembly areas. Prioritize identifying launch platforms for KABs in Sumy and Kharkiv. Verify RUF claims of territorial gains in Kharkiv. Monitor and analyze RUF drone enhancement efforts (e.g., "Incubator 3.0").
4. RESILIENCE MEASURES: Advise local authorities to enforce strict adherence to air raid alerts and pre-position emergency response resources in likely target areas, including additional fire-fighting capabilities, medical support for urban centers, and resources for rapid railway and energy infrastructure repair. Provide guidance and support for civilians utilizing shelters (e.g., metro stations). Implement measures to quickly restore road traffic in affected urban areas.
5. ALLIED COORDINATION: Inform allies of the increased intensity and multi-domain/layered nature of RUF strikes, reiterating the urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions. Provide detailed analysis of the new Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod buffer zone threat and the continued targeting of critical infrastructure to inform potential increased support requirements. Highlight the effectiveness and strategic impact of UAF deep strikes on Russian territory (including widespread airport closures) to underscore the strategic impact and justify continued support. Proactively counter RUF narratives regarding international diplomatic shifts that could undermine allied support.
6. FIRES (Ground Operations): Prioritize immediate counter-battery targeting of identified TOS-1A systems and artillery threatening Chasiv Yar. Allocate additional FPV drone assets to interdict Russian assault groups crossing open ground and target their rear-area supply lines in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Prepare pre-planned targets for artillery and air assets along the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Belgorod buffer zone axes in anticipation of further enemy advances. Actively target tactical aviation responsible for KAB launches against Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Prioritize targeting of RUF logistics nodes affecting Oskil River crossings.
7. FORCE POSTURE (SUMY/KHARKIV/BELGOROD BUFFER): Accelerate preparation of secondary and tertiary defensive lines along the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Belgorod buffer zone axes. Earmark tactical reserves for rapid counter-attack but do not commit until the enemy's main effort is definitively identified.
8. MANEUVER (CHASIV YAR): Review and prepare reinforcement plans for the Chasiv Yar garrison. Be prepared to commit experienced tactical reserves to contain and counter-attack any Russian lodgment west of the canal to prevent a collapse of the defense in the Kanal microdistrict.
9. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RUF information operations, specifically addressing claims of UAF morale collapse and unit failures, and highlighting UAF AD successes and deep strike capabilities, including successful deep strikes on Russian territory, and the operational impact of the strikes (e.g., widespread airport closures). Counter RUF claims of territorial gains unless independently verified. Emphasize the costs incurred by Russia due to UAF deep strikes, including casualties, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Address and counter RUF attempts to manipulate international political narratives (e.g., Putin-Trump call, "coalition of the willing" criticisms). Leverage internal Russian information from airport closures to highlight RUF's inability to fully protect its own territory.

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END OF REPORT