Situation Report

TIME: 040254Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed, with RUF sources claiming Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. New reports indicate enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south, observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast (moving south), and eastern/southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (moving west). KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes. Multiple sources confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) approached Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. UPDATE: Klichko reports 14 casualties in Kyiv as of 0156Z, an increase from previous reports. KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm a renewed air raid alert in Kyiv at 0204Z due to threat of RUF strike UAVs. UAF Air Force confirms "Attention! Kyiv!" at 0217Z, indicating ongoing threat. OPERATYVNYI ZSU posts video of emergency services responding to fires in Kyiv Oblast, confirming damage. RBK-Ukraina reports damaged railway infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian shelling, confirmed by UZ (Ukrainian Railways). FACT: Multiple impacts, fires, increased civilian casualties (14), and damaged railway infrastructure confirmed in Kyiv. JUDGMENT: Layered RUF attack designed to overwhelm UAF AD, targeting both military, civilian, and critical transport infrastructure. Renewed air raid indicates continued RUF intent to maintain pressure. Confidence: HIGH.

• Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. RUF sources claim drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction." Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults, attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. TASS reports RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points. Confidence: HIGH.

• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka, supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. UAF Air Force confirmed "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast." Confidence: HIGH.

• Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. UPDATE: UAF Air Force reports "Launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east" at 0223Z. TASS reports Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv VDA, claims liberation of Melove (Kharkiv Oblast), stating it allows RUF to "stretch UAF defenses." FACT: KAB usage confirmed. JUDGMENT: RUF claims of Melove liberation are unconfirmed but indicate continued limited offensive intent in Kharkiv Oblast, likely aimed at fixing UAF forces. Confidence: HIGH (KAB usage), MEDIUM (Melove liberation claim).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Territory:

  • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok due to mourning for Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov further confirms his death.
  • Internal Security: TASS reports Rosfinmonitoring added a minor (born 2011) to its list of extremists and terrorists. TASS also reports Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan and their families are still unaware of the accusations, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction. TASS reports Akunin case to be considered July 14, further emphasizing internal repression. Colonelcassad reports on drone attacks against Izhevsk. UPDATE: TASS reports at 0222Z that an overnight UAF UAV attack on Rostov Oblast (Azov, Millerovsky, Tarasovsky districts) was repelled, resulting in one fatality. At 0224Z, TASS reports a collapsed floor slab in a damaged house due to UAV impact, leading to 20 evacuations. Tsaplienko reports multiple videos of a large fire and black smoke plume "near Moscow after drone attack," with captions confirming "serious fire." This confirms UAF deep strike capabilities against Russian rear areas and infrastructure, including critical areas near the capital. TASS also reports on Deputy Head of Roshydromet accused of fraud, indicating continued internal corruption issues. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Saratov airport at 0227Z, likely due to UAV activity.
  • Force Generation/Training (RUF): Colonelcassad posts photos/videos of RUF Eastern Military District personnel with 12.7mm ORSIS 50 BMG sniper rifles and conducting sniper training, indicating continued training and equipment acquisition for special operations/precision fire capabilities.
  • Propaganda: TASS reports former UAF soldier Pavel Bolbot has joined RUF, preparing to participate in the "liberation of Donbas and Novorossiya." TASS reports an RUF intelligence chief claiming "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" during the "liberation of Sudzha." FACT: UAF deep strikes confirmed against Rostov and Moscow regions, causing damage, casualties, and infrastructure disruption. JUDGMENT: UAF maintains capability to conduct effective deep strikes against strategic Russian targets. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Multiple fires confirmed in Kyiv following RUF strikes will impact air quality and complicate emergency response. OPERATYVNYI ZSU video confirms large-scale emergency response to fires. Damaged railway infrastructure will impact logistics and civilian movement. Confidence: HIGH.
• Rostov Oblast (RU): Damage from UAV impacts (collapsed floor slab) and a fatality will impact local infrastructure and potentially public morale. Confidence: HIGH.
• Moscow Oblast (RU): Significant fire and smoke plume near Moscow indicates substantial damage, likely from UAF UAVs, impacting local infrastructure and potentially public morale in a key population center. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:

  • Ballistic Missiles: Confirmed repeated ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast towards Kyiv.
  • UAVs: Continued widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes, with renewed activity over Kyiv. RUF sources amplifying claims of successful strikes. Massed UAV attacks observed in Rostov and Moscow regions.
  • Cruise Missiles: Multiple reports confirm cruise missile launches targeting Kyiv Oblast.
  • Ground Forces: "Center" grouping continues offensive operations in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. Russian VDV units heavily engaged in Chasiv Yar, employing FAB glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Company-sized probing attacks and intense artillery/FAB strikes noted in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims limited gains in Kharkiv Oblast (Melove).
  • Tactical Aviation: Confirmed use of tactical aviation (likely Su-34/35) for launching KAB (glide bombs) against targets in Sumy and now Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Specialized Units: Evidence of RUF Eastern Military District (Vostok) personnel training with ORSIS .50 BMG sniper rifles suggests ongoing development of precision strike capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.

• Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures (extremist designations, legal proceedings). The ongoing public mourning for Gudkov and the domestic impact of UAF UAV strikes on Rostov, Saratov, and Moscow Oblasts (casualties, evacuations, airport restrictions, significant fires) demonstrate increasing impact on Russian society and infrastructure. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Precision Strikes: RUF maintains and actively employs its capability for long-range precision strikes using ballistic missiles (Iskander), massed Shahed UAVs, and cruise missiles (Kh-101/555). The claimed Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield and continued attacks on Kyiv demonstrate intent to degrade UAF air defense and air force assets.
  • UAV Operations: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct sustained, multi-axis, massed UAV attacks across various oblasts simultaneously. The renewed air raid in Kyiv due to drones signifies continued high tempo. UAF deep strike capabilities using UAVs against Russian territory (Rostov Oblast, Moscow region, Saratov airport disruption) are confirmed, inflicting casualties and damage.
  • Layered Aerial Attacks: The attack on Kyiv showcases RUF's ability to coordinate ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs in successive waves, designed to overwhelm and exhaust UAF air defense. The confirmed damage to railway infrastructure underscores the targeting of critical nodes.
  • Combined Arms Operations: RUF continues to effectively integrate air support (FABs), thermobaric systems (TOS-1A), and drone reconnaissance/strike capabilities with ground assaults in key sectors like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Confirmed KAB usage in Sumy and Kharkiv further solidifies this capability.
  • Information Warfare: RUF sources are actively engaged in psychological operations, amplifying claims of widespread and successful strikes on Kyiv, often with exaggerated or highly aggressive rhetoric, to demoralize the Ukrainian populace and project an image of overwhelming force. They also employ narrative manipulation to justify offensive actions and to spread disinformation, as seen with claims of Melove liberation.
  • Sniper/Precision Fire: RUF demonstrates continued training and equipping of units with high-caliber sniper rifles (ORSIS .50 BMG), indicating an intent to enhance precision engagement capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.

• Intentions:

  • Degrade UAF Air Defense: The primary intent of the current multi-domain attack on Kyiv and surrounding oblasts is to overwhelm and deplete UAF air defense systems, thereby opening corridors for future, potentially more devastating, missile strikes. The layered approach (ballistic, then drone, then cruise) specifically aims for AD saturation. The renewal of the air raid in Kyiv reinforces this intent.
  • Inflict Casualties and Damage: RUF seeks to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure, while causing civilian casualties to generate panic and demoralization. The increased casualty count in Kyiv and damage to railway infrastructure supports this.
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure: RUF will continue high-intensity ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), supported by air and drone assets, to achieve territorial gains and tie down UAF forces.
  • Fix UAF Reserves: The offensive axis in Sumy Oblast and now confirmed KAB strikes on Kharkiv are intended to draw and fix UAF operational reserves away from critical sectors in the Donbas. The claim of Melove liberation supports this feinting/fixing narrative.
  • Internal Consolidation (RU): RUF leadership continues to prioritize internal security and control measures within Russia, while managing the domestic fallout of military losses and UAF deep strikes. Confidence: HIGH.

• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Sustained Ballistic Missile Volleys: Repeated rapid launches of ballistic missiles at Kyiv indicate a shift to more sustained, high-intensity missile barrages.
  • Multi-Directional UAV Approaches: Observed UAV approaches from multiple cardinal directions simultaneously across different oblasts continue. The renewed drone threat to Kyiv suggests a continued high tempo.
  • Layered Missile Attacks: The use of cruise missiles following ballistic missiles and drones against Kyiv indicates a refined tactic to further stress AD capabilities.
  • Targeting Rail Infrastructure: The confirmed damage to Kyiv's railway infrastructure suggests an adaptation to target critical logistics and troop movement capabilities.
  • Opening New Ground Axis (Sumy): Initiation of offensive operations in Sumy Oblast remains a significant tactical adaptation.
  • Expanded Glide Bomb Use: Confirmed KAB usage in both Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts indicates a broader application of tactical aviation support for ground operations across multiple axes, likely to soften defenses and support advances. Confidence: HIGH.

• Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RUF demonstrates continued capacity to produce and launch significant numbers of Shahed UAVs, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
  • RUF is able to sustain significant ground operations, including deployment of specialized units (VDV) and heavy fire support (FABs, TOS-1A). The ability to use KABs on multiple fronts (Sumy, Kharkiv) shows availability of air-to-ground ordnance.
  • RUF is adapting to UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by the response to the Rostov UAV attack, but these strikes are still inflicting damage and casualties, now extending to Moscow region and Saratov. Confidence: HIGH.

• Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • RUF's ability to coordinate simultaneous multi-domain attacks across various oblasts and manage multiple ground offensive axes indicates effective command and control for strategic strike operations and operational-level ground maneuvers. Tactical C2 for ground operations in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv also appears functional. Confidence: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense: UAF Air Defense remains active and engaged in repelling massed RUF UAV and missile attacks. However, the sheer volume and multi-directional nature of the attacks, now including layered ballistic and cruise missile strikes, continue to stress AD capabilities. Increased casualties in Kyiv (now 14 wounded) and confirmed impacts, including railway infrastructure, indicate some saturation of AD. Reports of "missiles minus" and "mopeds preliminarily minus" indicate continued successful interceptions, but the confirmed fires and debris fields show that not all threats are neutralized. The repeated air raid alerts underline the ongoing challenge. Confidence: HIGH.

• Ground Forces: UAF forces in Donetsk Oblast continue to defend against high-intensity RUF assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. UAF forces in Sumy Oblast are actively defending against new RUF probing attacks, including those supported by KABs. UAF units in Kharkiv are now under renewed KAB threat and remain in a fixing role, while managing RUF claims of limited territorial gains. Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes: UAF confirmed liquidation of a very senior RUF naval officer (Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Mikhail Gudkov) via deep strike. UAF deep strike capabilities demonstrated effectiveness against Russian territory (Rostov Oblast, Moscow Region, Saratov), inflicting a fatality, significant infrastructure damage (fire near Moscow, collapsed floor slab in Rostov), and operational disruption (Saratov airport restrictions). UAF air defense achieved partial success in intercepting the layered missile/UAV attack on Kyiv. Confidence: HIGH.
• Setbacks: The ongoing massed and layered missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other central/western oblasts continues to challenge UAF AD, resulting in increased civilian casualties (14 wounded in Kyiv), damage to civilian infrastructure, and critical railway infrastructure. The new ground assault in Sumy Oblast, coupled with confirmed KAB support in both Sumy and Kharkiv, will force UAF to reallocate resources or commit reserves, stretching defenses. Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: The sustained high-volume and layered RUF aerial attacks will continue to deplete UAF air defense missile stocks. This remains a critical constraint.
• Medical/Emergency Response: Increased requirements for emergency services and medical personnel in affected areas, particularly Kyiv, due to ongoing strikes and confirmed fires, as evidenced by video of emergency response.
• Manpower/Equipment (Ground Forces): The opening of the Sumy axis and increased KAB use in Kharkiv, coupled with sustained high-intensity combat in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), increases demands for manpower and equipment across multiple fronts.
• Infrastructure Repair: Immediate resources required for repair of damaged railway infrastructure to maintain critical logistics and transport capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF sources (e.g., НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, TASS) are actively engaged in aggressive psychological operations, using highly charged language and exaggerated claims (e.g., "We said we'd f*** them today," "Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield," "former UAF soldier joins RUF," "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" in Sudzha, RUF "South" grouping destroyed UAF deployment points, claim of Melove liberation in Kharkiv) to amplify perceived RUF successes and demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians. They aim to project an image of overwhelming RUF capability and Ukrainian AD failure, while also promoting narratives of defection and internal weakness within Ukraine. RUF's rapid dissemination of BDA via social media (Colonelcassad's photos/videos of Kyiv fires) aims to amplify perceived strike effectiveness. RUF sources also spread disinformation about UAF unit morale. TASS reports on Russian internal matters (Roshydromet fraud, Akunin case, Azerbaijan detentions) are likely aimed at shaping domestic perception and diverting attention from internal issues. Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• The sustained, massed and layered attacks on major population centers like Kyiv, causing increased casualties (14 wounded), damage to civilian and critical infrastructure (railway), are intended to erode public morale and create fear. However, the confirmed UAF deep strike on Rostov Oblast and now the Moscow region (casualty, evacuations, significant fire) demonstrates Russia's vulnerability and could impact Russian domestic morale, potentially generating dissent or questioning of the conflict. The resilience of the Ukrainian population will be tested by the current scale of attacks. UAF social media channels continue to provide official updates and counter disinformation, which helps maintain public trust and resilience. The video of civilians sheltering in a basement highlights the direct impact on civilian life and their efforts to cope. Confidence: MEDIUM.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Dempster-Shafer beliefs indicate a high degree of uncertainty regarding diplomatic initiatives or geopolitical shifts, with 20% dedicated to uncertainty. While "Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors]" holds the highest belief at 56%, without specifics, this does not directly impact current operational picture. The detention of a Russian citizen in Azerbaijan signals continued geopolitical friction, potentially diverting some RUF diplomatic attention. The continued internal repression of figures like Akunin further highlights the Russian government's authoritarian control. The confirmed UAF deep strike on Rostov and Moscow Oblasts will likely elicit strong condemnation from Russia, potentially impacting international narratives and increasing pressure on allies for more robust air defense assistance to Ukraine. Confidence: LOW (regarding direct, immediate impact on current operations, but MEDIUM for future impact on aid).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustain Layered High-Intensity Strikes (Kyiv/Central Ukraine): RUF will continue to launch massed UAV, ballistic missile, and cruise missile attacks on Kyiv and other strategic cities (e.g., Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk) over the next 24-48 hours, aiming to exhaust UAF air defense systems and maintain psychological pressure. This will likely include targeting military, critical infrastructure (including railway nodes), and civilian areas. The layered approach (Iskanders, Geraniums, cruise missiles) will persist, potentially including renewed waves of drones. Confidence: HIGH.
• Continued Ground Offensives (Donetsk): RUF will maintain its high-intensity offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, attempting to exploit any perceived UAF weakness or diversion of resources due to the deep strikes and the new Sumy/Kharkiv fronts. Integrated drone, air (FAB), and thermobaric (TOS-1A) support for ground units will continue. Confidence: HIGH.
• Escalation of Sumy/Kharkiv Probing Attacks with Air Support: RUF will escalate probing attacks and air/artillery strikes along the Sumy border and continue KAB strikes on Kharkiv to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian reserves, potentially expanding the Ryzhivka salient or opening additional limited axes. This will be accompanied by continued narrative manipulation via state media, amplifying any perceived territorial gains (e.g., Melove). Confidence: HIGH.
• Information Warfare Amplification: RUF will continue to heavily promote its perceived successes in deep strikes and ground operations through state media and Telegram channels, aiming to demoralize Ukraine and project strength domestically and internationally. They will likely downplay the impact of UAF deep strikes on Russian territory. Confidence: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Follow-on Manned Aviation Strikes: After sustained AD suppression via missile/UAV/cruise missile attacks, RUF could attempt to launch more daring manned aviation strikes (e.g., fighter-bombers, strategic bombers) against critical infrastructure or UAF troop concentrations, potentially with stand-off missiles if AD is sufficiently degraded. The confirmed use of KABs in Sumy and Kharkiv shows a willingness to use tactical aviation near the border. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.
• Major Offensive in Sumy: The enemy launches a larger-than-expected mechanized assault towards Sumy city, exploiting a perceived weakness in the defensive line, aimed at creating a new significant operational axis. This would be synchronized with a commitment of operational reserves to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Chasiv Yar. The confirmed KAB usage and accompanying propaganda suggest a shaping operation for a larger offensive is plausible. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 6-12 Hours: Continuation of massed and layered aerial attacks on central and western Ukraine, specifically Kyiv. UAF decision point on prioritizing AD assets across multiple oblasts, particularly in response to cruise missile and renewed drone threats. Increased RUF ground pressure in Sumy and Donetsk.
• Next 24-48 Hours: Evaluation of sustained AD effectiveness against massed strikes. Decision point on potential resource requests from allies based on ammunition expenditure and AD system strain. RUF will assess the impact of their current strikes to determine the next phase of deep operations. UAF decision point on strategic reserve allocation between Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk.
• Long-Term (72+ Hours): Potential for RUF to re-evaluate strategic strike targets based on AD response. Continued high-intensity ground engagements in Donetsk will remain a priority for RUF, potentially seeing a major commitment of reserves depending on the outcome of the Sumy/Kharkiv shaping operations.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Specific RUF Strike Intent: While general intent to degrade AD is clear, the specific target sequencing and long-term objectives (e.g., pre-positioning for future large-scale air operations, specific infrastructure targets) of the current massed aerial attacks require further assessment, particularly concerning critical railway infrastructure.
• RUF Missile/UAV Stockpile Levels: Ongoing assessment of RUF production rates and current inventory of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs is critical to predict sustainability of current strike tempo.
• Impact on UAF AD System Readiness: Detailed real-time assessment of UAF AD system integrity, readiness, and ammunition levels following sustained barrages.
• Detailed Damage Assessment: Comprehensive battle damage assessment (BDA) for all targeted sites, particularly military, critical infrastructure (railways), and energy facilities, to understand the true operational impact.
• Primary Enemy Intent (Sumy/Kharkiv): The strategic objective of the Ryzhivka operation and increased KAB use in Kharkiv remains unclear. Requires confirmation whether it is a feint, a limited shaping operation, or the precursor to a main assault. (CRITICAL) Confirmation of RUF territorial gains (e.g., Melove) is required.
• Enemy Order of Battle (Sumy/Kharkiv): The composition, strength, and readiness levels of the Russian force groupings opposite Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts are not fully confirmed. Identifying specific units is an urgent priority.
• Reserve Availability (Chasiv Yar/Overall): The disposition and commitment threshold of Russian operational reserves for the Chasiv Yar battle and potential Sumy/Kharkiv offensives are unknown. Confirmation is needed to predict the enemy's ability to sustain the current tempo of operations across multiple axes.
• UAF Deep Strike Capabilities Assessment: Detailed assessment of the specific UAF assets and methods used for deep strikes into Russian territory (Rostov, Moscow, Saratov) is required to understand current and future deep strike potential.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. AIR DEFENSE PRIORITY: Prioritize maximum interception of incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and strike UAVs, particularly those targeting Kyiv and other critical infrastructure. Implement dynamic AD asset reallocation based on real-time threat vectors and prioritize protection of AD assets themselves.
2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Rapidly deploy BDA teams to all impact sites, especially Vasylkiv airfield and other military facilities, to assess damage and operational impact. Prioritize assessment of railway infrastructure damage in Kyiv and its impact on logistics. Confirm civilian casualty figures.
3. ISR REALLOCATION (Deep Strikes/New Fronts): Increase ISR focus on RUF launch areas in Bryansk Oblast and other potential missile/UAV/cruise missile launch sites to gain early warning of future strike waves. Focus on identifying specific missile types and launch patterns. Concurrently, task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT) to determine the composition, disposition, and intent of the Russian force groupings opposite Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Focus on identifying command posts, logistics hubs, and assembly areas. Prioritize identifying launch platforms for KABs in Sumy and Kharkiv. Verify RUF claims of territorial gains in Kharkiv.
4. RESILIENCE MEASURES: Advise local authorities to enforce strict adherence to air raid alerts and pre-position emergency response resources in likely target areas, including additional fire-fighting capabilities, medical support for urban centers, and resources for rapid railway infrastructure repair.
5. ALLIED COORDINATION: Inform allies of the increased intensity and multi-domain/layered nature of RUF strikes, reiterating the urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions. Provide detailed analysis of the new Sumy/Kharkiv threat and the continued targeting of critical infrastructure to inform potential increased support requirements. Highlight the effectiveness of UAF deep strikes on Russian territory to underscore the strategic impact.
6. FIRES (Ground Operations): Prioritize immediate counter-battery targeting of identified TOS-1A systems and artillery threatening Chasiv Yar. Allocate additional FPV drone assets to interdict Russian assault groups crossing open ground and target their rear-area supply lines in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Prepare pre-planned targets for artillery and air assets along the Sumy and Kharkiv axes in anticipation of further enemy advances. Actively target tactical aviation responsible for KAB launches against Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
7. FORCE POSTURE (SUMY/KHARKIV): Accelerate preparation of secondary and tertiary defensive lines along the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Earmark tactical reserves for rapid counter-attack but do not commit until the enemy's main effort is definitively identified.
8. MANEUVER (CHASIV YAR): Review and prepare reinforcement plans for the Chasiv Yar garrison. Be prepared to commit experienced tactical reserves to contain and counter-attack any Russian lodgment west of the canal to prevent a collapse of the defense in the Kanal microdistrict.
9. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RUF information operations, specifically addressing claims of UAF morale collapse and unit failures, and highlighting UAF AD successes and deep strike capabilities, including successful deep strikes on Russian territory, and the impact of the strikes. Counter RUF claims of territorial gains unless independently verified.

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END OF REPORT