Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 040124Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast: RUF continues a massed, multi-domain attack on Kyiv. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast (RUF territory) towards Kyiv confirmed. "Another two rockets" and "more ballistic missiles" were reported by UAF sources. "НгП раZVедка" (RUF source) explicitly claimed "Now Iskanders!" KVMVA reports a male casualty in Holosiivskyi district. Drone debris was found at four locations in Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, and Holosiivskyi districts, near residential buildings. Medical teams are responding to calls in Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, and Darnytskyi districts. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims an Iskander missile strike on Vasylkiv airfield south of Kyiv. This suggests continued targeting of military infrastructure in addition to urban centers. New reports indicate enemy strike UAVs continue to approach Kyiv from the north and south, currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast (moving south), and eastern/southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (moving west). KVMVA reports multiple fires across Kyiv locations following the strikes, advising citizens to close windows upon returning home. Multiple sources (e.g. Nikolaevskiy Vanek) confirm cruise missiles (Kh-101/555 likely) are approaching Kyiv Oblast from the north, previously observed north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn, with a course towards Brovary. This indicates a layered missile attack following initial ballistic missile and drone waves. NEW: KVMVA and RBK-Ukraina confirm eight casualties in Kyiv as of 0059Z, with Klichko expected to provide updated figures. Colonelcassad (RUF source) is actively posting photos and videos of fires in Kyiv, attributing them to "night strikes of missiles and drones," providing visual evidence of impact. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "missiles minus" (0105Z), suggesting successful UAF interceptions. Confidence: HIGH.

• Chernihiv Oblast: Enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south. Cruise missiles detected north of Pryluky and south of Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) axis. Colonelcassad (RUF source) shared drone footage purportedly showing "ornithologists of the Center grouping dealing with UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction," with video showing military vehicles, explosions, and damage to infrastructure and a civilian car. This indicates continued RUF pressure and close-range engagement capabilities, likely involving FPV drones, against UAF logistics and forward positions. Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, with Russian VDV elements conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults. Enemy units are attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south. Confidence: HIGH.

• Sumy Oblast: Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near Ryzhivka. These actions are supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. NEW: TASS reports "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" during the "liberation of Sudzha," according to a "Vostok" brigade intelligence chief. This is a propaganda claim likely aimed at justifying the Sumy offensive and bolstering morale. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation designed to draw Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. Confidence: HIGH.

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): New reports indicate enemy strike UAVs are currently observed in eastern and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving west. This suggests an ongoing or renewed threat of RUF drone activity in the region. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "air raid off" at 0114Z, indicating a reduction in immediate aerial threat in that region. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Territory:

  • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok on July 4 due to mourning for Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Gudkov further confirms his death. This reinforces the significant impact of the UAF strike on a senior naval officer.
  • Internal Security: TASS reports that Rosfinmonitoring (Russia's financial intelligence unit) has added a minor (born 2011) to its list of extremists and terrorists. This signals continued aggressive internal security measures and potentially the lowering of the age threshold for such designations. TASS also reports Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan and their families are still unaware of the accusations, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction with Azerbaijan. NEW: TASS reports the case of Akunin (recognized as foreign agent and added to list of terrorists and extremists) will be considered on July 14, further emphasizing internal repression and targeting of opposition figures.
  • Propaganda: TASS reports former UAF soldier Pavel Bolbot has joined RUF, preparing to participate in the "liberation of Donbas and Novorossiya." This is a clear propaganda piece aimed at discrediting UAF and promoting RUF recruitment. NEW: TASS also reports an RUF intelligence chief claiming "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" during the "liberation of Sudzha," which is likely a propaganda piece to frame offensive operations as defensive. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Russia: The cancellation of the Far Eastern Sabantuy festival in Vladivostok for mourning (HVT loss) highlights the psychological impact of UAF deep strikes on Russian domestic events. Confidence: HIGH.
• Kyiv: Multiple fires confirmed in Kyiv following RUF strikes will impact air quality and complicate emergency response. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:

  • Ballistic Missiles: Confirmed repeated ballistic missile launches from Bryansk Oblast towards Kyiv. RUF sources claim Iskander strikes on Vasylkiv airfield, indicating continued targeting of key military infrastructure near the capital.
  • UAVs: Continued widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes. Current reports indicate active RUF strike UAVs in northern Chernihiv, Kyiv (approaching from north and south), and eastern/southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. This demonstrates RUF's ability to sustain multi-directional drone attacks. RUF sources (НгП раZVедка) are amplifying claims of successful strikes on Kyiv, stating "We said we'd f*** them today, like punks," indicating a high degree of confidence and aggressive intent.
  • Cruise Missiles: Multiple reports confirm cruise missile launches targeting Kyiv Oblast, approaching from the north/northeast via Brovary. This indicates a combined, layered aerial assault.
  • Ground Forces: "Center" grouping continues offensive operations in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction, employing drones for targeting UAF transport. Russian VDV units are heavily engaged in Chasiv Yar, employing FAB glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Company-sized probing attacks and intense artillery/FAB strikes are noted in Sumy Oblast, accompanied by significant RUF propaganda regarding "saving lives" in Sudzha. Confidence: HIGH.

• Control Measures: RUF continues aggressive internal security measures, as evidenced by the designation of a minor as an extremist/terrorist and the legal proceedings against Akunin. Cancellation of public events due to military losses further demonstrates the impact of UAF strikes on Russian society. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Precision Strikes: RUF maintains and actively employs its capability for long-range precision strikes using ballistic missiles (Iskander), massed Shahed UAVs, and cruise missiles (Kh-101/555). The claimed Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield demonstrates the intent to degrade Ukrainian air defense and air force assets around Kyiv.
  • UAV Operations: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct sustained, multi-axis, massed UAV attacks across various oblasts simultaneously, putting significant pressure on UAF air defense. RUF's use of drones for close-range targeting of UAF transport in the Krasnoarmiisk direction highlights their integrated tactical UAV capabilities.
  • Layered Aerial Attacks: The current attack on Kyiv showcases RUF's ability to coordinate ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs in successive waves, designed to overwhelm and exhaust UAF air defense.
  • Combined Arms Operations: RUF continues to effectively integrate air support (FABs), thermobaric systems (TOS-1A), and drone reconnaissance/strike capabilities with ground assaults in key sectors like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.
  • Information Warfare: RUF sources are actively engaged in psychological operations, amplifying claims of widespread and successful strikes on Kyiv, often with exaggerated or highly aggressive rhetoric, to demoralize the Ukrainian populace and project an image of overwhelming force. They also employ narrative manipulation to justify offensive actions (e.g., "saving lives" in Sudzha). Confidence: HIGH.

• Intentions:

  • Degrade UAF Air Defense: The primary intent of the current multi-domain attack on Kyiv and surrounding oblasts is to overwhelm and deplete UAF air defense systems, thereby opening corridors for future, potentially more devastating, missile strikes. The layered approach (ballistic, then drone, then cruise) specifically aims for AD saturation.
  • Inflict Casualties and Damage: RUF seeks to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure, including logistics nodes, command centers, and airfields, while also causing civilian casualties to generate panic and demoralization.
  • Sustain Offensive Pressure: RUF will continue high-intensity ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), supported by air and drone assets, to achieve territorial gains and tie down UAF forces.
  • Fix UAF Reserves: The new offensive axis in Sumy Oblast is intended to draw and fix UAF operational reserves away from critical sectors in the Donbas, enabling RUF breakthroughs elsewhere.
  • Internal Consolidation (RU): RUF leadership continues to prioritize internal security and control measures within Russia, reacting to perceived threats and consolidating power, while managing the domestic fallout of military losses. Confidence: HIGH.

• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • Sustained Ballistic Missile Volleys: The repeated rapid launches of ballistic missiles at Kyiv indicate a shift to more sustained, high-intensity missile barrages rather than single-strike events, aiming to overcome AD saturation.
  • Multi-Directional UAV Approaches: The observed UAV approaches from multiple cardinal directions (north, south, west) simultaneously across different oblasts demonstrates an adaptation to stretch and confuse UAF air defense assets.
  • Layered Missile Attacks: The use of cruise missiles following ballistic missiles and drones against Kyiv indicates a refined tactic to further stress AD capabilities and ensure impacts.
  • Opening New Ground Axis (Sumy): The initiation of offensive operations in Sumy Oblast represents a significant tactical adaptation aimed at expanding the front and forcing UAF resource allocation. Confidence: HIGH.

• Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RUF demonstrates continued capacity to produce and launch significant numbers of Shahed UAVs, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. The ability to launch repeated ballistic missiles from Bryansk and deploy cruise missiles indicates sustained production or a substantial existing inventory.
  • RUF is able to sustain significant ground operations, including the deployment of specialized units (VDV) and heavy fire support (FABs, TOS-1A). Confidence: HIGH.

• Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • RUF's ability to coordinate simultaneous multi-domain attacks across various oblasts and manage multiple ground offensive axes indicates effective command and control for strategic strike operations and operational-level ground maneuvers. Tactical C2 for ground operations in Donetsk also appears functional. Confidence: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense: UAF Air Defense remains active and engaged in repelling massed RUF UAV and missile attacks. However, the sheer volume and multi-directional nature of the attacks, now including layered ballistic and cruise missile strikes, are designed to stress AD capabilities. Confirmed casualties in Kyiv (eight wounded) and confirmed impacts indicate some saturation of AD. Reports of "missiles minus" indicate continued successful interceptions. Confidence: HIGH.

• Ground Forces: UAF forces in Donetsk Oblast continue to defend against high-intensity RUF assaults, particularly in Chasiv Yar where the 92nd Assault Brigade is under extreme pressure, and in Pokrovsk. UAF forces in Sumy Oblast are now actively defending against new RUF probing attacks. UAF units in Kharkiv remain in a fixing role. Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes: UAF confirmed liquidation of a very senior RUF naval officer (Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Mikhail Gudkov) via deep strike, validated by RUF's public mourning. This indicates continued UAF capability to conduct effective deep strikes against High-Value Targets within Russian territory. UAF air defense achieved partial success in intercepting the layered missile/UAV attack on Kyiv, as indicated by "missiles minus" reports. Confidence: HIGH.
• Setbacks: The ongoing massed and layered missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other central/western oblasts represents a significant challenge to UAF AD, resulting in civilian casualties (eight wounded in Kyiv) and damage, as well as multiple fires. The new ground assault in Sumy Oblast will force UAF to reallocate resources or commit reserves, stretching defenses. Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: The sustained high-volume and layered RUF aerial attacks will continue to deplete UAF air defense missile stocks. This remains a critical constraint.
• Medical/Emergency Response: Increased requirements for emergency services and medical personnel in affected areas, particularly Kyiv, due to ongoing strikes and confirmed fires.
• Manpower/Equipment (Ground Forces): The opening of the Sumy axis, coupled with sustained high-intensity combat in Donetsk (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk), increases demands for manpower and equipment across multiple fronts. Confidence: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF sources (e.g., НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, TASS) are actively engaged in aggressive psychological operations, using highly charged language and exaggerated claims (e.g., "We said we'd f*** them today," "Iskander strike on Vasylkiv airfield," "former UAF soldier joins RUF," "thousands of Russian soldiers' lives were saved" in Sudzha) to amplify perceived RUF successes and demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians. They aim to project an image of overwhelming RUF capability and Ukrainian AD failure, while also promoting narratives of defection and internal weakness within Ukraine. RUF's rapid dissemination of BDA via social media (Colonelcassad's photos/videos of Kyiv fires) aims to amplify perceived strike effectiveness. Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• The sustained, massed and layered attacks on major population centers like Kyiv, causing casualties and damage, are intended to erode public morale and create fear. However, the cancellation of public events in Russia due to UAF deep strikes suggests internal morale impacts on the Russian side as well. The resilience of the Ukrainian population will be tested by the current scale of attacks. Reports of casualties (8 wounded) are likely to impact civilian morale in Kyiv. Confidence: MEDIUM.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Dempster-Shafer beliefs indicate a high degree of uncertainty regarding diplomatic initiatives or geopolitical shifts, with 20% dedicated to uncertainty. While "Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors]" holds the highest belief at 56%, without specifics, this does not directly impact current operational picture. The detention of a Russian citizen in Azerbaijan signals continued geopolitical friction, potentially diverting some RUF diplomatic attention. TASS's report on a "short Friday" proposal in the Duma indicates a focus on domestic social issues amidst the conflict, potentially as a morale booster. The continued internal repression of figures like Akunin further highlights the Russian government's authoritarian control. Confidence: LOW (regarding impact on current operations).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustain Layered High-Intensity Strikes (Kyiv/Central Ukraine): RUF will continue to launch massed UAV, ballistic missile, and cruise missile attacks on Kyiv and other strategic cities (e.g., Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk) over the next 24-48 hours, aiming to exhaust UAF air defense systems and maintain psychological pressure. This will likely include targeting military and critical infrastructure, as well as civilian areas. The layered approach will persist. RUF information operations will continue to rapidly disseminate perceived BDA. Confidence: HIGH.
• Continued Ground Offensives (Donetsk): RUF will maintain its high-intensity offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar axes, attempting to exploit any perceived UAF weakness or diversion of resources due to the deep strikes and the new Sumy front. Integrated drone, air (FAB), and thermobaric (TOS-1A) support for ground units will continue. Confidence: HIGH.
• Escalation of Sumy Probing Attacks: RUF will escalate probing attacks and air/artillery strikes along the Sumy border to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian reserves, potentially expanding the Ryzhivka salient or opening additional limited axes. This will be accompanied by continued narrative manipulation via state media. Confidence: HIGH.
• Information Warfare Amplification: RUF will continue to heavily promote its perceived successes in deep strikes and ground operations through state media and Telegram channels, aiming to demoralize Ukraine and project strength domestically and internationally. Confidence: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Follow-on Manned Aviation Strikes: After sustained AD suppression via missile/UAV/cruise missile attacks, RUF could attempt to launch more daring manned aviation strikes (e.g., fighter-bombers, strategic bombers) against critical infrastructure or UAF troop concentrations, potentially with stand-off missiles if AD is sufficiently degraded. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT. (Increased from previous assessment due to layered attack demonstrating higher AD degradation intent)
• Major Offensive in Sumy: The enemy launches a larger-than-expected mechanized assault towards Sumy city, exploiting a perceived weakness in the defensive line, aimed at creating a new significant operational axis. This would be synchronized with a commitment of operational reserves to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Chasiv Yar. Confidence: MEDIUM, HIGH IMPACT. (Increased from previous assessment due to confirmed probing attacks and accompanying propaganda)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 6-12 Hours: Continuation of massed and layered aerial attacks on central and western Ukraine. UAF decision point on prioritizing AD assets across multiple oblasts, particularly in response to cruise missile threats. Increased RUF ground pressure in Sumy and Donetsk.
• Next 24-48 Hours: Evaluation of sustained AD effectiveness against massed strikes. Decision point on potential resource requests from allies based on ammunition expenditure and AD system strain. RUF will assess the impact of their current strikes to determine the next phase of deep operations. UAF decision point on strategic reserve allocation between Sumy and Donetsk.
• Long-Term (72+ Hours): Potential for RUF to re-evaluate strategic strike targets based on AD response. Continued high-intensity ground engagements in Donetsk will remain a priority for RUF, potentially seeing a major commitment of reserves depending on the outcome of the Sumy shaping operations.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Specific RUF Strike Intent: While general intent to degrade AD is clear, the specific target sequencing and long-term objectives (e.g., pre-positioning for future large-scale air operations, specific infrastructure targets) of the current massed aerial attacks require further assessment.
• RUF Missile/UAV Stockpile Levels: Ongoing assessment of RUF production rates and current inventory of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs is critical to predict sustainability of current strike tempo.
• Impact on UAF AD System Readiness: Detailed real-time assessment of UAF AD system integrity, readiness, and ammunition levels following sustained barrages.
• Detailed Damage Assessment: Comprehensive battle damage assessment (BDA) for all targeted sites, particularly military and critical infrastructure, to understand the true operational impact.
• Primary Enemy Intent (Sumy): The strategic objective of the Ryzhivka operation remains unclear. Requires confirmation whether it is a feint, a limited shaping operation, or the precursor to a main assault. (CRITICAL)
• Enemy Order of Battle (Sumy): The composition, strength, and readiness levels of the Russian force grouping opposite Sumy Oblast are not fully confirmed. Identifying specific units is an urgent priority.
• Reserve Availability (Chasiv Yar/Overall): The disposition and commitment threshold of Russian operational reserves for the Chasiv Yar battle and potential Sumy offensive are unknown. Confirmation is needed to predict the enemy's ability to sustain the current tempo of operations across multiple axes.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. AIR DEFENSE PRIORITY: Prioritize maximum interception of incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and strike UAVs, particularly those targeting Kyiv and other critical infrastructure. Implement dynamic AD asset reallocation based on real-time threat vectors and prioritize protection of AD assets themselves.
2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Rapidly deploy BDA teams to all impact sites, especially Vasylkiv airfield and other military facilities, to assess damage and operational impact. Prioritize assessment of infrastructure damage in Kyiv following fires and confirm civilian casualty figures.
3. ISR REALLOCATION (Deep Strikes/New Fronts): Increase ISR focus on RUF launch areas in Bryansk Oblast and other potential missile/UAV/cruise missile launch sites to gain early warning of future strike waves. Focus on identifying specific missile types and launch patterns. Concurrently, task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT) to determine the composition, disposition, and intent of the Russian force grouping opposite Sumy Oblast. Focus on identifying command posts, logistics hubs, and assembly areas.
4. RESILIENCE MEASURES: Advise local authorities to enforce strict adherence to air raid alerts and pre-position emergency response resources in likely target areas, including additional fire-fighting capabilities and medical support for urban centers.
5. ALLIED COORDINATION: Inform allies of the increased intensity and multi-domain/layered nature of RUF strikes, reiterating the urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions. Provide detailed analysis of the new Sumy threat to inform potential increased support requirements.
6. FIRES (Ground Operations): Prioritize immediate counter-battery targeting of identified TOS-1A systems and artillery threatening Chasiv Yar. Allocate additional FPV drone assets to interdict Russian assault groups crossing open ground and target their rear-area supply lines in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Prepare pre-planned targets for artillery and air assets along the Sumy axis in anticipation of further enemy advances.
7. FORCE POSTURE (SUMY): Accelerate preparation of secondary and tertiary defensive lines along the Sumy axis. Earmark tactical reserves for rapid counter-attack but do not commit until the enemy's main effort is definitively identified.
8. MANEUVER (CHASIV YAR): Review and prepare reinforcement plans for the Chasiv Yar garrison. Be prepared to commit experienced tactical reserves to contain and counter-attack any Russian lodgment west of the canal to prevent a collapse of the defense in the Kanal microdistrict.

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END OF REPORT