Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 032225Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours. RUF forces are approximately 2.5 km from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). RUF video shows continued FAB-500 strikes and UGV operations in the Pokrovsk direction. New RUF drone video shows targeting of UAF personnel in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) direction. UAF sources confirm explosions in Makiivka and Khartsyzk (occupied Donetsk), indicating UAF strikes. RUF sources claim advances in Chasiv Yar, with a video showing a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle being hit by a drone from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Karola Marksa (Myrne). UAF "Fakhivtsi" unit shares video of enemy destruction near Popovy Yar. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports successful FAB-1500 strikes on 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) forward base in Iskra and 39th Separate Rifle Battalion (OBRBO) with X-39 missile near Otradokamenka. "Операция Z" (RUF source) claims the "20th Immortal Regiment" is advancing on Kostiantynivka, suggesting a new offensive push towards the city. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RUF tactical aviation launches of KABs (glide bombs) towards Donetsk Oblast. New RUF sourced video (Operatsiya Z, Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) shows what appears to be multiple rocket launches or artillery fire from the Donetsk area, described as a "Massive missile strike on DPR." Another RUF video (Operativniy ZSU) shows the aftermath of an artillery strike in a wooded area with multiple deceased soldiers, indicating continued heavy fires on UAF positions. Colonelcassad confirms the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" systems by the 1st Tank Army, demonstrating continued thermobaric fire support. UAF Air Force reports a target approaching Sloviansk. Confidence: HIGH.

• Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction. The liquidation of former "mayor" of occupied Luhansk, Manolis Pilavov, via IED is confirmed, with RUF sources also confirming his death. Confidence: HIGH.

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Critical intelligence contradiction persists regarding RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF claims "liberation" of Dachne and advancements towards Dnipropetropvsk Oblast, with supporting video of flag raising. However, UAF General Staff and other UAF sources strongly deny sustained RUF breakthroughs, stating any small reconnaissance groups were destroyed. UAF reports capture of 9 RUF soldiers from a failed offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF missile strike on Kamianske district caused civilian casualties and agricultural infrastructure damage. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a new alert warns of UAVs/missiles towards Dnipro. Confidence: CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE CONTRADICTION.

• Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states Russian advances in border areas have been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. UAF General Staff reports repelling 13-22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. RUF continues KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast. A new video from "Два майора" (RUF source) shows aerial footage of multiple explosions in "Sumy direction, Khoten area," indicating active RUF fires. RUF sources claim a battle near Tyotkino with Russian paratroopers storming positions. New groups of enemy UAVs are entering Sumy Oblast airspace from the north, moving southwest. RUF sources claim UAF units looted homes in Khoten (25 km from Sumy). UAF Air Force reports new groups of RUF strike UAVs entering Sumy Oblast from the north. RBC-Ukraine confirms this threat. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from RUF tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports repeated KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on stabilized front line, ongoing RUF activity); MEDIUM (on specific RUF claims of gains).

• Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes and ground clashes near Vovchansk and Kupyansk direction. RUF claims "liberation" of Melove in Kharkiv Oblast, with video evidence of flag raising by "North" Group forces. UAF reports a successful SFO raid near the border with a captured soldier and reports updated RUF combat losses (1000 personnel in 24 hours). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches from RUF tactical aviation towards Kharkiv Oblast from the east. New alerts warn of UAVs/missiles towards Kharkiv and Chuhuiv. Colonelcassad provides images dated June 2025 showing UAF engineering structures under construction in Izyumskyi District, Kunyevska rural community, Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates UAF is building defensive lines in the Kharkiv direction. Confidence: HIGH.

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske, with "Операция Z" reporting RUF secured positions and is dividing the town. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske. Kadyrovites are being prepared for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with approximately 15 military trucks moving them to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area. UAF SFO units successfully took control of one enemy position near Kamyanske. "Два майора" (RUF source) posts a video titled "Zaporizhzhia front" but provides no additional information. TASS video shows captured NATO weapons being transferred to "Martyn Pushkar" detachment in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely for propaganda purposes. RUF source "Операция Z" claims Russian Army has liberated most of Kamyanske. NEW: Military Intelligence Analysis of provided image shows a tactical map overlay for the Zaporizhzhia direction, left flank, but provides no new specific updates on territorial control or troop movements. Confidence: HIGH (on Kadyrovite buildup, SFO success); LOW (on verified RUF control of Kamyanske).

• Kherson Oblast: Positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance continue. RUF shelled Central District of Kherson, causing civilian casualties. UAF Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine report 16 enemy assaults repelled and significant RUF losses. Nikolaevsky Vanek shares a video depicting drone footage targeting and destroying an RLM-D 55Zh6M NEBO-M radar system. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims a FAB-1500 strike on a 67th OMBR PVD in Iskra and an X-39 missile strike on 39th OBRBO in Otradokamenka. This is a new, specific targeting claim. Confidence: HIGH.

• Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, two civilian fatalities and multiple injuries confirmed. 14 Shahed UAVs destroyed by UAF AD. RUF reports "powerful strike and huge fire" at an enemy object near Odesa, targeting an oil terminal. A ballistic missile strike on Odesa port infrastructure resulted in two killed and three wounded civilians, later rising to six injured including two Syrian citizens. A second ballistic missile arrival reported. Colonelcassad posts video showing a second Iskander missile strike on Odesa port. Confidence: HIGH.

• Mykolaiv Oblast: Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports current threat of RUF strike UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast. UAF Air Force and RBC-Ukraine report new groups of RUF strike UAVs entering Mykolaiv Oblast from the south. Nikolaevsky Vanek provides an updated general count of "mopeds" (Shaheds), indicating ongoing threat. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports on overall Shahed drone count. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kyiv Oblast: Massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles and UAVs. UAF AD operating effectively, downing 40 of 52 enemy UAVs. Two UAF Air Force pilots killed while repelling the attack. Fragments of an enemy drone fell on open ground in Solomianskyi district, Kyiv, confirmed by KVM A. Air raid alerts continue. UAF Air Force reports 2-3 Shahed UAVs (mopeds) approaching Kyiv from Brovary direction. KMVA confirms PPO working on enemy targets. UAF Air Force reports ~5 Shaheds from Brovary on Kyiv. KMVA reports RUF drones over Kyiv. RBD-Ukraina reports a 16-story building roof fire in Kyiv due to drone attack, likely from falling debris. UAF Air Force reports a continuing attack with "several dozen" groups of UAVs in Ukrainian airspace. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 1 "moped" in Kyiv suburb. Klitschko initially reported UAV debris falling on a residential building roof in Obolon, but this was later unconfirmed by Klitschko and KMVA. KMVA now reports falling debris from a downed UAV in Dniprovskyi district near an educational institution and residential buildings, confirmed by Klitschko. New alerts warn of UAVs/missiles towards Kyiv. KMVA reports a prolonged air raid alert (nearly 6 hours with a short break) due to RUF UAV attacks. ASTRA provides video footage of what appears to be an air defense engagement over Kyiv. "Два майора" shares a video of a small drone over Kyiv, likely reconnaissance. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports approximately 130 strike UAVs currently in Ukrainian airspace. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 3 Shaheds passed Boryspil towards Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine confirms massed drone attack on Kyiv Oblast. KMVA reports a fire in a non-residential building in Solomianskyi District, Kyiv, due to a UAV attack, casualties being assessed. Operativniy ZSU posts video of what appears to be a UAF FPV drone engaging an RUF target (described as a "worm-motorcyclist"), possibly in a rural area around Kyiv or another active front. KMVA confirms loud activity in Kyiv as air defense works on enemy targets. STERNENKO (UAF source) reports a slight decrease in Shahed numbers. UAF Air Force reports updated information on enemy strike UAV movement. UAF Air Force reports a MiG-31K take-off, triggering missile danger across Ukraine. Nikolaevsky Vanek confirms two MiG-31K aircraft airborne. KMVA reports powerful explosions in Kyiv. UAF Air Force confirms "missile on Kyiv!" Nikolaevsky Vanek claims "2 Kinzhals on Kyiv!!!" KMVA reports targets on approaches to and over Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports new KAB launches on Sumy. Nikolaevsky Vanek updates on Shaheds around Kyiv/Irpin/Obukhiv/Brovary/Boryspil (9 active). KMVA confirms ongoing drone attack. Colonelcassad and Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) claim missile and drone strikes/Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv. ASTRA reports UAV debris fall near educational and residential buildings in Dniprovskyi district, Kyiv. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 6 Shaheds over Kyiv. Klitschko confirms AD working in Kyiv. NGP raZVedka claims "another couple dozen reparations on Kyiv." KMVA reminds not to film AD. NEW: Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 15 "mopeds" (Shaheds) on course for/via Boyarka/Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports "Отбой угрозы по МиГ-31К" (MiG-31K threat clear). Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 23 "mopeds" either near or en route to Kyiv. RUF sources ("Операция Z," "Colonelcassad," "НгП раZVедка") claim large swarm of strike drones attacking Kyiv's Zhulyany airport (where a Patriot AD system is supposedly located) and report a fire in the Zhulyany airport area due to missile and drone impacts. KMVA reports several fires in Solomianskyi district, all residential buildings, with casualties being assessed. RBC-Ukraine confirms KMVA report. Confidence: HIGH.

• Cherkasy Oblast: RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to residential buildings and a college. SBU exposed an FSB agent preparing shelling. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF UAVs on Cherkasy. New alerts warn of UAVs/missiles towards Cherkasy. Confidence: HIGH.

• Poltava Oblast: RUF drone attacks targeted a TCC (military enlistment office) building in Poltava, confirmed by multiple RUF and UAF sources. This strike resulted in 2 killed and 59 injured, including military personnel and civilians, and caused fires in the TCC and nearby buildings. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF UAVs on Poltava and Kremenchuk. RBD-Ukraina reports 1 person injured from UAV debris in Poltava district, with damage to a car. New alerts warn of UAVs/missiles towards Poltava and Kremenchuk. RBC-Ukraine reports another person injured in Poltava district due to drone debris. NEW: UAF Air Force issues a "Poltava!" warning. Confidence: HIGH.

• Lviv Oblast: RUF video shows multiple missile/drone impacts and explosions at a refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast. SBU detained an Air Force major suspected of espionage for Russia. Confidence: HIGH.

• Zhytomyr Oblast: RUF missile strike near Zhytomyr resulted in a large explosion, destroying two production facilities, killing 2 and injuring 82. The M-06 Kyiv - Chop highway was temporarily closed. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF UAVs in Zhytomyr Oblast. New alerts warn of UAVs/missiles towards Zhytomyr. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kirovohrad Oblast: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF UAVs in Kirovohrad Oblast. New alerts warn of UAVs/missiles towards Kryvyi Rih. NEW: UAF Air Force issues a "Kropyvnytskyi!" warning. Confidence: HIGH.

• Rivne Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current threat of RUF strike UAVs in Rivne Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

• Vinnytsia Oblast: UAF Air Force reports current threat of RUF strike UAVs in Vinnytsia Oblast. "НгП раZVедка" (RUF source) states they "said two weeks ago that Vinnytsia is not very good," indicating pre-knowledge or anticipation of strikes. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Territory:

  • Deep Strikes (UAF): Confirmed successful UAF deep strikes on the Izhevsk "Kupol" plant (damaging four UAV production workshops, stopping operations), the "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast (sanctioned military-industrial complex), and Khalino airfield in Kursk (damaging aviation weapons storage complex). These attacks caused casualties, including one fatality and two injuries in Lipetsk, and led to temporary flight restrictions at multiple airports (Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, Tambov, Samara). A powder factory in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, also caught fire due to a UAV strike, killing 3 and injuring 3. ASTRA (RUF source) reports today's UAV attack in Udmurtia preliminarily hit the "Rosrezerva" oil depot in Borok village. Mash on Donbas reports multiple explosions heard in Donetsk, Makeyevka, and Khartsyzsk. Temporary flight restrictions were re-imposed at Volgograd airport, then lifted. TASS (RUF source) reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to attack Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) with Storm Shadow missiles, but air defense systems engaged them. This suggests UAF deep strike capability targeting occupied territories. Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) posts a video of a person falling from a tall building in Anapa, which is civilian context but could be used by RUF to imply internal instability or UAF subversive activities if framed as such.
  • High-Value Target (HVT) Loss (RUF): Multiple RUF and UAF sources confirm the liquidation of Mikhail Gudkov ("Varyag"), Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, along with his deputy, Colonel Shikhaliev, in Kursk Oblast from a missile strike on a field headquarters. RUF source "Colonelcassad" reports the liquidation of Roman Oryshchenko, described as a prominent "Nazi" and organizer of "Euromaidan self-defense," later a leader of "Plast."
  • Internal Security: FSB detained a 23-year-old Russian woman in St. Petersburg suspected of preparing an explosive device. An influential Azerbaijani "thief-in-law" (Vagif Suleymanov) was detained in Moscow, reported by RUF sources, linked to the Russia-Azerbaijan diplomatic spat. Rybar (RUF source) shares video of the detention. "НгП раZVедка" reports a second "thief-in-law," Zaur Shipilov, detained in Orenburg. ASTRA reports on an incident in Kemerovo involving a veteran killing a healthy dog instead of a sick one; while civilian, RUF sources may use this to imply internal instability or societal decay in Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns provides a recruitment poster for the Russian Armed Forces, indicating ongoing domestic recruitment efforts.
  • Space Launch: TASS reports a Soyuz rocket launch (Progress MS-31 cargo ship) from Baikonur. While civilian, these launches often support dual-use capabilities. Basurin o glavnom (RUF source) provides a photo message of a Soyuz-2.1a rocket launch. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest continued heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine.
• Russia: North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" brought rain and colder temperatures to Moscow, but a heatwave of over +30C is expected by mid-next week. Temporary flight restrictions have been imposed and lifted at various airports due to drone activity. The Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg on July 27 has been canceled for security reasons. "Aeroflot" is adjusting Tehran flight schedules due to Iran extending airport restrictions until July 10. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:
  • Donetsk: Continues high-intensity offensive, employing units from "Center" and "Vostok" groups, 30th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, and VDV (98th Guards Airborne Division, 247th Air Assault Regiment). Observed use of T-90 tanks, BMP-3s, TOS-1A, and BM-21 Grad MLRS. RUF claims "liberation" of Razino (Donetsk) and Melove (Kharkiv). MoD Russia published video claiming drone strikes on vehicles and camouflaged positions. Colonelcassad reports new batches of modernized BMP-3s with additional protection have been supplied to the MoD by Rostec. New claims of "20th Immortal Regiment" advancing on Kostiantynivka. Colonelcassad reports drone strikes on fortified positions by "Vostok" and "Southern" grouping of forces, indicating continued FPV/recon drone integration into ground assaults. Colonelcassad confirms active deployment and operation of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" systems by the 1st Tank Army. Kotsnews provides video of Russian drone operators using thermal imaging for reconnaissance/targeting. Rybar posts an image map of the Kupyansk direction as of June 3, 2025, showing territorial control, and another map of the Kramatorsk direction as of July 3, 2025, providing a fresh overview of RUF dispositions.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Kadyrovite (Chechen special forces) transfer to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area with 15 military trucks indicates a significant buildup for potential assault operations. Kadyrov_95 (RUF source) posts a video of a meeting on education, which is likely a propaganda effort to portray Kadyrov as engaged in civilian governance, potentially to deflect from military deployments. TASS video shows captured NATO weapons being transferred to "Martyn Pushkar" detachment in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely for propaganda purposes. NEW: A tactical map overlay provided by "Военкор Котенок" shows the Zaporizhzhia direction (left flank), but lacks specific unit data or new movement indicators.
  • Force Generation: Continued recruitment for "African Corps" and contract soldiers (over 210,000 in H1 2025). North Korea intends to send up to 30,000 additional troops to assist Russia, with a DPRK military academy delegation visiting Russia. Public fundraising for BM-21 Grad MLRS by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" indicates a capability gap being addressed by public donations. MoD Russia releases a "DailyFigure" image, likely a propaganda graphic on force generation or combat statistics (specifics unknown without image content). Alex Parker Returns provides a recruitment poster for the Russian Armed Forces, reinforcing the ongoing recruitment drive.
  • UAVs: Widespread use of Shahed (Geranium) UAVs for deep strikes, FPV drones for tactical engagements, and reconnaissance UAVs. RUF sources claim increased Geranium production. Demonstrated ability to target individual UAF personnel with FPV drones (Krasnoarmiisk direction) and a "Kozak" armored vehicle. RUF sources claim the use of "Parody" target drones over Kyiv to deplete UAF air defense. New waves of Shahed UAVs are currently impacting Vinnytsia, Rivne, Mykolaiv oblasts. "Два майора" posts a video claiming new types of strike UAVs have passed sea trials and are on combat duty for Crimea's defense, indicating development of naval/maritime UAVs. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are entering Mykolaiv and Sumy Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports approximately 130 strike UAVs currently in Ukrainian airspace. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 3 Shaheds passed Boryspil towards Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports updated information on enemy strike UAV movement. Nikolaevsky Vanek provides an updated general count of "mopeds" (Shaheds). Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 9 Shaheds around Kyiv/Irpin/Obukhiv/Brovary/Boryspil. NEW: Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 15 "mopeds" course on/through Boyarka/Kyiv. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 23 "mopeds" either near or towards Kyiv. RUF sources (Операция Z, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) claim a "huge swarm of strike drones" attacking Zhulyany airport, Kyiv, and report missile/drone impacts and a fire there.
  • EW: Sophisticated and widespread EW capabilities, with continued reports of RUF forces employing EW systems and laser-based anti-UAV systems. Confidence: HIGH.
• Control Measures: RUF maintains extensive electronic warfare (EW) and layered air defense. Recent reports confirm 69 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. Mobile internet will be restricted in Rostov Oblast, likely for counter-UAV or security purposes. RUF sources report on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. The Russian government is implementing new legislation impacting digital platforms and administrative fines, potentially tightening information control. TASS reports RUF PVO working against UAF Storm Shadow missiles targeting DPR. TASS reports global legislative changes related to constitutional amendments are completed, with ~200 laws adopted. This indicates continued internal consolidation of power. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Ground Offensive: Sustained high-intensity ground assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, and in Chasiv Yar. Use of combined arms tactics, including T-90 tanks, new BMP-3 deliveries, and MT-LBs. Demonstrated ability to advance in Chasiv Yar, with claims of hitting a Kozak vehicle. New claims of an advance on Kostiantynivka indicate continued expansion of offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. Confirmed active use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems by the 1st Tank Army, capable of devastating effects on fortified positions.
  • Air-Dropped Ordnance: Continued extensive use of FAB-500/1500 with UMPK glide kits to suppress and destroy Ukrainian defenses, including recent launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Confirmed use of FAB-1500 against UAF positions in Iskra. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast. Repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast.
  • UAV Operations: Highly developed and integrated UAV capabilities for ISR, FPV strikes, and deep strikes. Use of remote-controlled UGVs. Confirmed increased production and deployment of Geranium drones. Demonstrated ability to target individual UAF personnel with FPV drones (Krasnoarmiisk direction) and armored vehicles. Massed wave of UAVs currently impacting central and western Ukraine. RUF claims use of "Parody" target drones to exhaust UAF AD. Introduction of "new types of strike UAVs" for naval defense (Crimea) indicates further diversification of RUF drone capabilities. Approximately 130 strike UAVs currently in Ukrainian airspace, demonstrating RUF's capacity for massed drone attacks. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 9 Shaheds currently active around Kyiv. NEW: Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 15-23 "mopeds" heading towards Kyiv. RUF sources claim "huge swarm of strike drones" attacking Zhulyany airport.
  • EW: Sophisticated and widespread EW capabilities.
  • Precision Strikes: Demonstrated long-range precision strikes against critical infrastructure, military targets, and command posts, including military-industrial facilities (Izhevsk, Energiya), TCCs (Poltava), and airfields (Khalino). Capability to target oil depots in deep rear (Udmurtia). Confirmed use of X-39 missile against a UAF battalion in Otradokamenka. The current massed UAV attack supports this. Confirmed second Iskander strike on Odesa port infrastructure. MiG-31K take-off indicated potential for further precision missile strikes across Ukraine. RUF sources claimed Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv, later the MiG-31K threat was cleared. NEW: RUF sources (Colonelcassad, Операция Z) claim "missile and drone impacts" on Zhulyany airport area.
  • Special Forces: Active Spetsnaz operations and internal security operations (FSB detentions, detention of "thieves-in-law" in Moscow and Orenburg). "Два майора" posts a video related to the "Espanola" Maritime Special Purpose Detachment, suggesting continued special operations presence.
  • New Weapon Systems: Stated intent to deploy "Oreshnik" (new weapon system) in Belarus by year-end.
  • Force Generation: Continued ability to generate personnel through contract service and potential foreign military support (DPRK, "African Corps"). New batches of modernized BMP-3s arriving.
  • Mine Clearance: Capability to use robotic complexes (Uran-6) for mine clearance.
  • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to destroy enemy USVs and drones in the Black Sea. Confidence: HIGH.

• Intentions:

  • Territorial Control: Primary intention remains the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar. The purported penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the capture of Melove (Kharkiv) indicate an intent to broaden offensive areas and create buffer zones. The claimed advance on Kostiantynivka signals an intent to seize another major urban center in Donetsk Oblast. RUF claims of liberation of most of Kamyanske indicate continued intent to push on Zaporizhzhia axis.
  • Strategic Depth: Continue to establish "buffer zones" in border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv) to secure Russian territory, including potential limited ground operations (e.g., Khoten area, Sumy). The sustained UAV presence in Sumy Oblast reinforces this. KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast further demonstrate this intent. Repeated KAB launches on Sumy confirm continued pressure on this axis.
  • Infrastructure Degradation: Continued systematic degradation of Ukraine's military-industrial complex, energy infrastructure (oil depots), and logistics through precision strikes. The targeting of TCCs indicates an intent to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization efforts. The current massed UAV attack supports this. The second Iskander strike on Odesa port indicates continued targeting of port infrastructure. MiG-31K take-off signaled intent for further deep strikes, though the threat was later cleared. RUF claims Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv reinforced intent for high-impact precision strikes. NEW: RUF claims of targeting Zhulyany airport with missiles and a "huge swarm of strike drones" indicates continued intent to target high-value military infrastructure within urban areas.
  • Information Dominance: Maintain and escalate information warfare to shape narratives, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion, particularly by exploiting perceived Western aid inconsistencies and promoting Russian "victories." Leveraging high-value UAF losses (Oryshchenko) and promoting narratives of forced mobilization through captured UAF personnel. Spreading narratives of UAF looting (Khoten, Sumy). Using incidents like the Anapa fall for internal security messaging or to imply chaos in UAF areas. RUF continues to produce propaganda videos showcasing their soldiers' experiences and "valor" (e.g., "Два майора" video of soldier reflecting on war). TASS video showcasing captured NATO weapons being transferred to a detachment in Zaporizhzhia Oblast aims to reinforce the narrative of successful capture of Western aid. China's statement about not allowing Russia to lose is a key RUF narrative point. Formal recognition of the Taliban further cements RUF's independent foreign policy narrative. TASS is promoting Trump's statement of dissatisfaction with the Ukraine situation as a lack of progress. Hungarian anti-Zelenskyy posters are being leveraged by RUF to show European divisions. Colonelcassad provides new propaganda video featuring a cook from "Akhmat" unit. NGP raZVedka posts a video with a provocative caption ("entire pigsty raised to its ears"), aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians.
  • Force Reinforcement: Integrate additional personnel from contract service and international partners (DPRK, "African Corps") to sustain offensive operations.
  • Diplomatic Realignment: Formal recognition of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" and hoisting of the Taliban flag over the embassy in Moscow signals Russia's intent to forge new alliances and challenge the Western-led international order. This may be leveraged for resource acquisition or geopolitical influence. Putin's expressed readiness for further negotiations with Trump suggests an intent to influence US policy. China's statement that it "cannot allow Russia to lose" indicates a strategic alignment that Russia will leverage. Confidence: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a primarily defensive posture, successfully repelling numerous RUF assaults. Tactical fighting withdrawals are being conducted in Chasiv Yar. Construction of engineering structures in Kharkiv Oblast (Izyumskyi District) indicates UAF is actively improving defensive posture in this direction.
• Tactical Adaptation: Demonstrated ability to adapt to RUF tactics, including effective use of drones for ISR, BDA, and precision strikes (e.g., Popovy Yar, current FPV drone video); successful SFO raids; counter-propaganda leveraging POWs; decentralized air defense efforts; and successful targeting of HVTs (Goryachkin, Pilavov, Gudkov). Demonstrated capability for deep strikes into Russian territory, including claimed Storm Shadow attacks on DPR. UAF 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade anti-aircraft gunners are on combat duty closer to the front lines to destroy enemy Shahed UAVs. This indicates an adaptation to push AD capabilities forward.
• Personnel & Training: Syrskyi states general training will be increased. High operational tempo continues. Ukraine is preparing new agreements for joint weapons production, including interceptor drones. UAF General Staff and Air Force provide timely updates on air threats. ОТУ "Харків" shares morale-boosting photos of soldiers. RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukrainians can now obtain referrals for military medical commissions (VLC) without a TCC signature, streamlining the process. STERNENKO (UAF source) continues to promote fundraising for drones, indicating sustained grassroots support for UAF capabilities.
• Resource Requirements & Constraints: Critical air defense deficit and lack of modular shelters remain pressing concerns. Continued reliance on international partners for critical capabilities, particularly in light of US arms suspension. UAF personnel are under significant pressure, sustaining casualties, necessitating continued mobilization and training. Continued fundraising efforts for drone units (93rd Brigade Black Raven). Germany's reported intention to procure two Patriot systems from the US for Ukraine suggests a recognition of critical AD needs.
• Logistics & Sustainment: Ukrainian military administration continues to support troops and civilians.
• Morale: High morale demonstrated by continued defensive operations, successful tactical actions, and efforts to support military families. A Ukrainian source ("Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦") posts a video of a Ukrainian woman speaking out against the Russian language in Ukraine, reflecting strong nationalistic sentiment and counter-narrative against RUF claims of "liberating Russian speakers." Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Repelled 41 RUF assaults in Pokrovsk direction in 24 hours.
  • Successful tactical fighting withdrawal in Chasiv Yar to prepared positions.
  • Successful drone strikes causing high RUF casualties, destroying equipment, and targeting fortified positions (e.g., Popovy Yar). Operativniy ZSU provides drone footage of multiple deceased RUF soldiers after a strike. Operativniy ZSU posts video of what appears to be a UAF FPV drone successfully engaging an RUF target.
  • Confirmed liquidation of RUF 8th Combined Arms Army acting commander, Lt. Col. Ruslan Goryachkin.
  • Successful counter-DRG/SFO raid near the Kharkiv border, including prisoner capture.
  • Confirmed SBU exposure of FSB agents preparing attacks in Cherkasy.
  • Successful deep strikes on military-industrial targets within Russia (Izhevsk 'Kupol' plant, Energiya plant in Yelets, Khalino airfield). Confirmed strike on Rosrezerva oil depot in Borok, Udmurtia. Confirmed UAF strikes on Makiivka and Khartsyzsk. Claimed Storm Shadow attacks on DPR.
  • Successful interception and downing of a high percentage of RUF Shahed UAVs (40 of 52). Ongoing PPO work over Kyiv, implying continued AD effectiveness against incoming UAVs. KMVA confirms prolonged AD operations over Kyiv. UAF Air Force updates indicate 130 strike UAVs in Ukrainian airspace, showing high AD activity. KMVA confirms loud AD activity in Kyiv. STERNENKO reports decrease in Shahed numbers due to UAF AD efforts. Klitschko confirms AD working in Kyiv. NEW: UAF Air Force reports MiG-31K threat cleared. STERNENKO's "Death to Russians" message suggests continued resolve.
  • Confirmed liquidation of former "mayor" of occupied Luhansk, Manolis Pilavov.
  • UAF capture of 9 RUF soldiers from a failed offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Confirmed liquidation of Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Mikhail Gudkov.
  • Destruction of three Nebo-M key radars.
  • RUF source confirms liquidation of prominent UAF nationalist/activist Roman Oryshchenko.
  • Kyiv Mayor Klitschko confirms unverified initial reports of damage in Obolon, Kyiv, were false.
  • EU overcame Slovakia's opposition to the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, potentially securing broader punitive measures.
  • DeepState has updated its map, indicating potential changes in control or confirmed advances/withdrawals. (Requires further analysis of specific changes.)
• Setbacks:
  • RUF penetration into the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, forcing UAF tactical withdrawal.
  • Continued high number of RUF air attacks on Kharkiv.
  • Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RUF strikes across multiple oblasts (Poltava casualties increased to 59, Zhytomyr to 82, Odesa to 6). Fire on a 16-story building roof in Kyiv due to drone attack, likely debris. New confirmed debris falling in Dniprovskyi district, Kyiv, near educational and residential buildings. Fire in non-residential building in Solomianskyi District, Kyiv, due to UAV attack, potential casualties. Second Iskander strike on Odesa port. NEW: KMVA reports multiple fires in residential buildings in Solomianskyi district, Kyiv, with casualties being assessed.
  • Heavy officer losses in 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade due to missile strike in Huliaipole.
  • Unverified but persistent RUF claims of territorial gains, including entry into Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), create uncertainty.
  • Direct hit on a TCC building in Poltava, causing military and civilian casualties. New reports of one person injured by UAV debris in Poltava district.
  • Continued air raid alerts for Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kremenchuk, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia. Target approaching Sloviansk. Massed UAV attack across multiple oblasts, currently over 130 active UAVs. MiG-31K take-off triggered missile danger across entire Ukraine, indicating a critical aerial threat. KMVA reported powerful explosions and multiple impacts in Kyiv. UAF Air Force confirmed "missile on Kyiv!" Nikolaevsky Vanek claimed "2 Kinzhals on Kyiv!!!" RUF sources claimed "Kinzhal" strikes on Kyiv. ASTRA reported UAV debris damage in Dniprovskyi district, Kyiv. UPDATE: While the MiG-31K threat has been cleared, the confirmed impacts and casualties from the previous wave in Kyiv (Solomianskyi district residential fires) highlight vulnerabilities. RUF sources claim "huge swarm" of drones attacking Zhulyany airport.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports a cyberattack with pro-Russian slogans, indicating continued RUF information warfare targeting Ukrainian media infrastructure.
  • UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle hit by RUF FPV drone in Chasiv Yar area.
  • RUF claims of effective PVO against UAF Storm Shadow missiles.
  • Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports specific FAB-1500 and X-39 missile strikes on UAF forward positions (67th OMBR, 39th OBRBO). Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Air Defense Deficit: Urgent need for more advanced air defense systems and interceptor drones. Germany's reported intention to purchase two Patriot systems for Ukraine from the US is a positive development but indicates the severity of this deficit. The current massed UAV attack (130+ drones) highlights the immediate and critical need for AD assets. The MiG-31K threat (now cleared) and confirmed missile impacts in Kyiv (Solomianskyi residential fires) exacerbated the immediate AD challenge across the entire country, necessitating continued focus on AD asset distribution and interceptor allocation.
• Shelter Shortages: Shortfall in protective infrastructure for civilians in urban areas, as evidenced by residential building fires in Kyiv.
• Ammunition & Equipment: Ongoing need for ammunition and equipment, particularly advanced systems. US suspension of certain weapons supplies is a significant constraint, although Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" passage might alter the landscape. Fundraising efforts by Ukrainian channels (e.g., STERNENKO) indicate continued need for drone procurement.
• Personnel Attrition: UAF personnel are under significant pressure and sustaining casualties, necessitating continued mobilization and training. Streamlining of VLC referrals may aid this.
• Foreign Military Aid Dependency: Continued reliance on international partners for critical capabilities. China's stated position on not allowing Russia to lose poses a long-term challenge to the efficacy of international sanctions and aid efforts. Confidence: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF Narratives: Highlighting UAF losses (e.g., Oryshchenko, Kozak armored vehicle, specific unit strikes by FAB-1500 and X-39 missiles), portraying Western abandonment (e.g., US aid delays, Trump's stance), claiming Russian successes and liberation of territory (e.g., Kostiantynivka advance), undermining Ukrainian stability, justifying the war, and showcasing internal Russian unity. The detention of an Azerbaijani "thief-in-law" in Moscow is being leveraged to emphasize Russian control and possibly link to the diplomatic spat with Azerbaijan. Formal recognition of the Taliban regime is being framed as Moscow's diplomatic initiative to "build dialogue" and assert its foreign policy independence. Putin's expressed readiness for further negotiations with Trump is a key narrative point. RUF MoD video featuring a captured UAF serviceman claiming all UAF are "caught by TCC" aims to demoralize UAF personnel and undermine mobilization efforts. RUF channels are also amplifying the US legislative process (e.g., "One Big Beautiful Bill") and the Putin-Trump call to shape narratives around international support for Ukraine. RUF sources ("Colonelcassad") claim "Parody" target drones are being used over Kyiv to exhaust UAF AD, a narrative aimed at diminishing UAF AD effectiveness. RUF sources are also spreading claims of UAF looting (Khoten, Sumy). The "DailyFigure" from MoD Russia is a likely propaganda piece, while the Anapa video, if linked by RUF, could serve to imply internal chaos. The detention of multiple "thieves-in-law" by RUF sources emphasizes internal law enforcement capabilities and stability. RUF channels (e.g., Basurin o glavnom) continue to highlight domestic capabilities such as space launches. Propaganda from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" emphasizes "paratrooper brotherhood." Kotsnews provides propaganda video on drone operators. "Два майора" posts a video on soldier morale and "trophies," potentially for internal consumption. ASTRA's reports on domestic Russian issues (e.g., veteran killing dog) could be twisted by RUF to imply societal issues, or by UAF as evidence of degradation. TASS video showcasing captured NATO weapons. Colonelcassad's posts on UAF engineering structures in Kharkiv Oblast are likely intended to show UAF's defensive preparations as a sign of weakness or impending collapse. China's statement regarding not allowing Russia to lose is a major propaganda victory for RUF, emphasizing international support. TASS reports Trump's dissatisfaction with Ukraine situation, likely to imply lack of US progress/support. TASS also reports Trump's affirmation of US military aid, which is a contradictory message likely to sow confusion. RUF is leveraging a video of a purported UAF POW claiming torture, to damage UAF reputation. Hungarian anti-Zelenskyy posters are being highlighted by TASS to show European divisions. Colonelcassad posts new propaganda featuring a cook from the "Akhmat" unit. NGP raZVedka posts a provocative video with anti-Ukrainian undertones. Operatsiya Z and Colonelcassad were quick to claim successful Kinzhal and missile strikes on Kyiv. NEW: RUF sources ("Операция Z," "Colonelcassad," "НгП раZVедка") are amplifying claims of a "huge swarm of strike drones" attacking Zhulyany airport (Kyiv) and reporting missile/drone impacts and a fire there, further aiming to demoralize and undermine UAF AD. "НгП раZVедка" uses mocking language ("pikhva mistu," "so long to reach you") to belittle Kyiv's response.
• UAF Narratives: Emphasizing resilience and defensive success, showcasing effective counter-offensives and strikes (e.g., Popovy Yar), documenting RUF war crimes and civilian impact, highlighting international support, and demonstrating transparency. UAF General Staff and Air Force immediately disseminating information on AD efforts and UAV threats for public awareness and morale. ОТУ "Харків" promoting soldier morale. Ukrainian sources are quick to refute false RUF claims (e.g., Obolon damage). The video of a Ukrainian woman speaking out against the Russian language serves to reinforce national identity and counter RUF "liberation" narratives. UAF channels like STERNENKO continue to raise funds for drones, showcasing grassroots support and defiance. RBC-Ukraine's "Zelenskyy intrigued by Denmark visit" caption indicates efforts to maintain positive narratives around international support. KMVA reinforces messaging to not film AD operations. NEW: STERNENKO's "Death to Russians" is a strong, morale-boosting, and defiant message. UAF Air Force's quick "threat cleared" message for the MiG-31K is crucial for public reassurance. KMVA and RBC-Ukraine quickly confirmed fires and assessed casualties in Solomianskyi, indicating transparency.
• Key Information Fights: The situation in Dnipropetrovsk, the US aid suspension and its implications (especially post-"One Big Beautiful Bill"), HVT liquidations, and casualty reporting remain active areas of information warfare. The Putin-Trump call is a central focus for both sides to shape narratives. Russia's overt recognition of the Taliban will be a significant new diplomatic narrative point. China's statement that it "cannot afford to see Russia lose" indicates a crucial strategic alignment for Russia that could mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. Cyberattacks on Ukrainian media (e.g., RBC-Ukraine) underscore RUF's multi-domain information warfare strategy. The veracity of RUF drone attacks and their impact (e.g., Obolon, Kyiv) is immediately countered by UAF sources. The narrative surrounding the Putin-Trump call and US aid is highly contested. The RUF narrative of UAF mistreatment of POWs will require strong UAF counter-messaging. Hungary's stance on Ukraine is being used to highlight perceived European divisions. Confirmed Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv (later contradicted by MiG-31K threat clear) will be a major information fight for both sides. NEW: The claims of a "huge swarm" of drones and missile impacts on Zhulyany airport will be a primary information battle for Kyiv. UAF will likely emphasize AD successes and minimize damage, while RUF will exaggerate. Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Resilience and determination are evident despite ongoing attacks. Concerns exist over aid and security deficiencies (AD, shelters). Continued air raid alerts and deep strike threats reinforce public anxiety but also underscore the necessity of robust AD. Fundraising efforts for military units (e.g., 93rd Brigade) indicate continued public support and engagement. Streamlining VLC referrals could improve public perception of mobilization efforts. The prolonged air alert in Kyiv (KMVA) will test public resilience. The scale of the current UAV attack (130+ drones) will significantly impact public morale and sense of security. The ongoing MiG-31K threat (now cleared) and confirmed missile impacts in Kyiv (Solomianskyi residential fires) will heighten anxiety nationwide and severely test morale, highlighting AD vulnerabilities. NEW: KMVA reports multiple residential fires in Solomianskyi district will cause significant concern and potentially fear among the civilian population. STERNENKO's defiant message provides a morale boost.
• Russian Public Sentiment (Inferred): State-controlled media promotes support for the "SVO." Potential economic strain (wage arrears) and domestic security concerns (UAF deep strikes, internal detentions, St. Petersburg parade cancellation) could affect public sentiment. The broadening of "terrorist" lists to include teenagers indicates a tightening of internal control. Formal recognition of the Taliban, particularly in the context of previous Russian prohibitions, may be a challenging narrative domestically. The internal security crackdown on "thieves-in-law" is likely intended to project strength and order. RUF channels (e.g., Alex Parker Returns) sharing content on veterans with visible injuries and societal issues (veteran killing a dog) could impact domestic morale or perceptions of the war's social cost, despite propaganda efforts. Colonelcassad's new propaganda video of a "cook" transforming into a "voice" for soldiers suggests an attempt to humanize military figures and boost morale.
• International Relations: Russia-Azerbaijan diplomatic spat continues to escalate, with RUF channels spreading disinformation about Azerbaijani business interests in Ukraine. Ukraine-Western Allies relationship remains complex due to US aid uncertainty, but European support is consistent (e.g., Denmark's EU presidency, German Patriot procurement). The Putin-Trump call adds a new layer to international dynamics. Russia's recognition of the Taliban will strain relations with Western allies and potentially other regional powers. A discussion by Ukrainian experts on US political impacts (e.g., Trump's stance on aid) indicates the awareness and concern within Ukraine regarding international support. China's statement that it "cannot afford to see Russia lose" indicates a crucial strategic alignment for Russia that could temper the effect of Western pressure. The EU overcoming Slovakia's resistance to sanctions is a positive indicator of continued European unity. Hungarian anti-Zelenskyy posters highlight ongoing friction with some EU members. Trump's statement on US military aid is a mixed signal to international partners. Confidence: HIGH (for narratives); MEDIUM (for actual public sentiment).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• US Support: Ambiguous due to arms suspension, but joint drone production agreements are being pursued. The Putin-Trump call and its content are critical. The passage of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" in the US House of Representatives indicates internal US political developments that could impact future aid. This bill's specific content and implications for Ukraine aid need further assessment. Trump's statements after the Putin call are contradictory, stating dissatisfaction with Ukraine situation but also confirming continued US military aid. Trump's openness to Iran negotiations indicates a potential shift in US foreign policy focus.
• European Support: Consistent, with Denmark and Sweden providing strong political and military aid. Germany intends to purchase two Patriot systems from the US for Ukraine. Ukraine met with Danish PM, European Council President, and European Commission President on the occasion of Denmark's EU presidency. The EU overcoming Slovakia's opposition to the 18th package of sanctions against Russia is a significant diplomatic success for Ukraine's allies. Hungary's continued opposition to Ukraine (as indicated by the anti-Zelenskyy posters) is a persistent point of friction within the EU.
• New Military Aid & Production: Ukraine-US memorandum for drone production. Zelenskyy announced production of hundreds of thousands of "anti-Shahed" drones. Ukraine is preparing its first pilot project under a minerals agreement, potentially indicating resource leveraging for defense.
• Diplomatic Engagements: Putin-Trump call is a significant development, with Putin reiterating readiness for negotiations. Russia-Azerbaijan relations are strained. DPRK-Russia military cooperation is advancing. US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled. Moscow officially recognized the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" and the Taliban flag was raised over the Afghan embassy in Moscow. This is a significant geopolitical shift indicating Russia's willingness to engage with previously proscribed entities. This is the first country to formally recognize the Taliban. China stated it "cannot afford to see Russia lose" in Ukraine, indicating a crucial strategic alignment for Russia that could temper the effect of Western pressure. Confidence: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Deepening the Donetsk Offensive: RUF will maintain high-intensity assaults along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, focusing on incrementally gaining ground and securing the remaining administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast. The push in Chasiv Yar for the Kanal microdistrict will continue with sustained force, aiming to seize control of the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, heavily supported by FAB-1500s and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. The claimed advance on Kostiantynivka suggests a broadening of immediate offensive goals in Donetsk. This will involve continued reliance on FAB glide bombs and increased use of tactical FPV drones for targeting UAF personnel and armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sustained Border Area Pressure & Shaping Operations (Sumy/Kharkiv): RUF will continue to conduct probing attacks and artillery/air strikes along the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions, including new UAV groups entering Sumy and KAB launches. These operations will primarily serve to fix Ukrainian reserves and prevent their redeployment. Limited tactical gains in these "buffer zones" may occur. RUF information warfare regarding UAF "looting" in Sumy aims to support this narrative. The construction of UAF engineering structures in Kharkiv Oblast indicates RUF will attempt to test these defenses. Repeated KAB launches on Sumy confirm continued pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Escalated Precision Strikes on Infrastructure and Logistics: RUF will continue and possibly increase its use of long-range precision missiles (including X-39 and potentially Kinzhals, though the immediate threat was cleared) and Shahed UAVs to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex sites, TCCs, logistics hubs, and energy infrastructure (including newly identified oil depots) across Ukraine, accepting civilian casualties as collateral damage. The current massed wave of UAVs (over 20 heading for Kyiv area, 150+ nationwide) on Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kremenchuk, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia is consistent with this. RUF may employ "target drones" to exhaust UAF AD capabilities. Claims of a "huge swarm" of drones and missile/drone impacts on Zhulyany airport indicate an immediate focus on high-value military infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intensified Information Warfare: RUF will double down on narratives of Ukrainian weakness, Western abandonment, and Russian success, especially following the Putin-Trump call, the recent HVT liquidations (both UAF and RUF), and China's supportive stance. The formal recognition of the Taliban will be heavily promoted as a diplomatic achievement. Cyberattacks on Ukrainian media are expected to continue. RUF will use visuals of captured Western weapons for propaganda. The promotion of POW mistreatment claims will be a recurring theme. RUF sources will leverage confirmed missile strikes on Kyiv for psychological effect, emphasizing specific target claims like Zhulyany airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Force Generation and Diversification: Russia will continue efforts to generate additional forces, including recruitment of contract soldiers, and will likely integrate North Korean personnel as they arrive. New deliveries of modernized BMP-3s will sustain mechanized capabilities. Development and deployment of new types of strike UAVs for specific roles (e.g., naval defense) will continue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Coordinated Breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk and Donbas: RUF could launch a larger-scale, synchronized mechanized offensive leveraging recently transferred Kadyrovite units in Zaporizhzhia and the purported deep penetrations into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to create a new operational axis threatening key Ukrainian rear areas or major urban centers. This would be coupled with a decisive push to completely secure Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, overwhelming UAF defenses. This is an immediate concern given the ongoing intelligence contradiction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HIGH IMPACT)
• Major Offensive in Sumy Aimed at Deep Penetration: RUF could commit substantial operational reserves to a full-scale offensive towards Sumy city, aiming to bypass established Ukrainian defenses and seize a significant provincial capital, forcing a major UAF redeployment from other critical fronts. (LOW CONFIDENCE, HIGH IMPACT)
• Increased Use of Non-Conventional/Hybrid Tactics: RUF could escalate the use of covert sabotage operations and proxies against perceived adversaries beyond the immediate conflict zone, including further attacks on maritime logistics or targeted destabilization efforts in bordering countries, potentially in response to the diplomatic spat with Azerbaijan or in conjunction with new diplomatic alignments (Taliban recognition). The increased internal security arrests in Russia (e.g., "thieves-in-law") could signify pre-emptive measures or a response to perceived internal threats that could be linked to broader destabilization efforts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, MEDIUM IMPACT)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Donetsk Offensive: RUF will sustain current offensive tempo on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar for the next 7-14 days. A decisive attempt to fully secure Chasiv Yar (western bank) is likely within 72 hours. The claimed push towards Kostiantynivka will be further assessed within 48-72 hours. The continued confirmed use of TOS-1A indicates a sustained commitment to these objectives.
• Dnipropetrovsk Contradiction Resolution: The conflicting intelligence regarding RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast should be resolved with high confidence within 24-48 hours through intensified ISR and ground reporting. This will be a critical decision point for UAF force allocation.
• Sumy Border Escalation: The scale and intent of RUF operations in Sumy Oblast will become clearer within 3-5 days. If significant mechanized formations are detected assembling, UAF command will face a decision point on whether to commit strategic reserves. The continued influx of RUF UAVs and KABs into Sumy confirms ongoing pressure. Continued KAB launches suggest sustained pressure.
• Deep Strike Reciprocity: UAF deep strikes into Russian territory will likely continue as long as RUF maintains its long-range missile and drone attacks. RUF will respond with further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. This cycle is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The efficacy of claimed Storm Shadow attacks needs BDA.
• Air Defense Response: The ongoing massed Shahed attacks on Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kremenchuk, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia require sustained AD response over the next 6-12 hours. The prolonged alert in Kyiv highlights this immediate challenge. The target approaching Sloviansk indicates an immediate AD requirement for that area. The MiG-31K airborne threat was immediate but has now been cleared. However, the confirmed impacts and fires in Kyiv (Solomianskyi residential area) necessitate continued vigilance and rapid BDA.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• CRITICAL - RUF Intent in Dnipropetrovsk: Confirm the depth and permanence of RUF presence in Dachne and surrounding areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Determine if claimed gains are verified and if a larger RUF force grouping is consolidating.
  • CR: All available ISR, especially UAV and ground patrols, targeting reported RUF penetration points. Local HUMINT.
• CRITICAL - RUF Order of Battle and Force Strength (Sumy/Kostiantynivka/Kamyanske): Precisely identify RUF units, their strength, and readiness levels of the Russian force grouping opposite Sumy Oblast, the "20th Immortal Regiment" claiming to advance on Kostiantynivka, and forces pushing into Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia). Identifying specific units is an urgent priority. Monitor for reinforcement movements towards these axes.
  • CR: SIGINT, IMINT (high-resolution satellite), HUMINT on the ground, pattern of life analysis.
• CRITICAL - RUF Reinforcement for Chasiv Yar: Confirm disposition and commitment threshold of Russian operational reserves for the Chasiv Yar battle. Assess the sustainability of TOS-1A deployment and ammunition.
  • CR: SATINT, long-range SIGINT, cross-border HUMINT.
• Logistics Assessment: Assess the impact of UAF deep strikes on RUF military-industrial production and ammunition depots, especially the Rosrezerva oil depot and its long-term effects.
  • CR: Post-strike BDA, IMINT, open-source monitoring of Russian internal reports on production.
• EW Countermeasures Effectiveness: Real-time assessment of Ukrainian EW system effectiveness against latest RUF drone variants and tactical communication jamming, particularly in high-density areas like Chasiv Yar and during deep Shahed attacks. Specifically, assess the reported use and effectiveness of RUF "Parody" target drones and the newly reported "new types of strike UAVs" for Crimea's defense.
  • CR: Technical intelligence, unit reports, and analysis of drone loss rates.
• Impact of Diplomatic Realignment (Taliban, China): Monitor for any follow-on agreements or resource flows (e.g., military aid, economic agreements) between Russia and the Taliban. Assess the practical implications of China's stated position on Russia's defeat for Western sanctions and aid.
  • CR: OSINT (diplomatic statements, economic reports), HUMINT (regional specialists, diplomatic reporting).
• Cyber Warfare Assessment: Evaluate the scope and impact of recent cyberattacks on Ukrainian media, and identify the specific RUF actors or proxies involved.
  • CR: Technical intelligence, cybersecurity forensics, OSINT.
• VLC Streamlining Impact: Monitor the practical effects of the new VLC referral process on Ukrainian mobilization efforts and personnel throughput.
  • CR: HUMINT (medical/military personnel), OSINT (public reporting).
• RUF FPV Drone Capabilities and Targeting: Further analyze the capabilities and targeting patterns of RUF FPV drones, specifically if the "worm-motorcyclist" engagement indicates a new type of target or more agile FPV platforms.
  • CR: Technical intelligence, analysis of video metadata, interviews with UAF FPV operators.
• Kyiv Strike Assessment (CRITICAL): Immediate and continuous tracking of current Shahed trajectories in Kyiv, confirmed impact locations (especially Solomianskyi residential fires), damage assessment, and casualty counts. Verify RUF claims of targeting Zhulyany airport.
  • CR: Airborne ISR, ground-based air surveillance radars, UAF rapid BDA teams, civilian emergency services reports.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE - Prioritize ISR for Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kamyanske, and Kostiantynivka axes: Reallocate all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT, ELINT) to establish a clear picture of RUF force dispositions and intent, particularly focusing on the contested administrative border of Dnipropetropvsk Oblast, the Sumy axis (especially following new KAB launches), the claimed Kamyanske advance, and the claimed Kostiantynivka advance. Confirm or deny RUF claims of deep penetration and identify any new RUF build-ups.
2. FIRES - Intensify Counter-Battery and Interdiction: Continue and increase counter-battery fires against identified RUF artillery and MLRS, especially TOS-1A systems. Prioritize interdiction of RUF logistics and supply routes supporting offensive operations in Donbas and any confirmed new axes. Allocate additional FPV drone assets for immediate response to RUF tactical assaults, specifically targeting exposed personnel and small assault groups. Leverage "Kryla OMEGA" unit for targeted strikes against RUF personnel and equipment. Conduct rapid BDA on confirmed UAF strikes in occupied Donetsk (Makiivka, Khartsyzsk) and claimed Storm Shadow targets for targeting optimization. Prioritize targeting identified RUF forward operating bases (e.g., 67th OMBR PVD, 39th OBRBO location) identified by RUF sources.
3. FORCE POSTURE - Adaptive Defense in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kamyanske, and Kostiantynivka: Prepare and activate layered defensive positions along the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the approaches to Kamyanske and Kostiantynivka. Maintain mobile tactical reserves ready for rapid deployment to counter any confirmed RUF breakthrough attempts, but avoid premature commitment. In Sumy, strengthen border defenses, conduct active reconnaissance, and prepare for potential larger-scale assaults, but do not overcommit strategic reserves from Donbas. Reinforce AD for Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kremenchuk, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, and Sloviansk against ongoing and massed UAV threats, prioritizing urban centers and critical infrastructure. UAF engineering efforts in Kharkiv Oblast should be expedited to enhance defensive depth.
4. AIR DEFENSE - Reinforce Critical Nodes and Forward Deployment (CRITICAL): Accelerate the deployment of any newly acquired or internally produced air defense systems, especially short-range interceptor drones. Prioritize deployment to protect key TCCs, logistics hubs, and military-industrial facilities, particularly in response to the demonstrated RUF intent to target these. Continue and expand the forward deployment of mobile anti-aircraft units (e.g., 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade) to intercept Shahed UAVs closer to the front and away from population centers. Expedite the procurement and integration of Patriot systems from Germany/US. Train and equip personnel to identify and counter "target drones" and new RUF naval UAV types. The sheer volume of the current UAV attack (15+ heading to Kyiv, 23 active in Kyiv area) and confirmed impacts in Kyiv (Solomianskyi residential fires) necessitate a critical re-evaluation of AD asset distribution and interceptor allocation. Prioritize protection of high-value targets across the entire country due to ongoing threat. Assess and adapt AD tactics against massed drone attacks, including rapid alert dissemination and shelter protocols. Immediately counter RUF claims of targeting specific high-value AD systems (e.g., Patriot at Zhulyany) with verifiable information.
5. C-IED and Counter-Sabotage: Implement heightened security measures and intelligence collection to counter RUF hybrid operations, including internal sabotage and IED attacks, particularly in occupied territories and against infrastructure targets. Increase monitoring of individuals and groups susceptible to RUF recruitment for such actions. Counter RUF narratives of UAF "looting" through verified reporting.
6. Diplomatic and Information Campaign: Coordinate with international partners to counter RUF disinformation regarding Western aid and to highlight RUF's continued aggression and targeting of civilian infrastructure. Leverage captured RUF POWs for counter-propaganda to undermine enemy morale, but verify all claims carefully. Ensure clear and consistent messaging regarding the outcomes of high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., Putin-Trump call, Denmark visit) to manage public and international perceptions, emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to self-defense and sovereignty. Actively highlight the international implications of Russia's diplomatic re-alignment with entities like the Taliban and China's supportive stance, framing them as a challenge to global stability. Bolster cyber defenses for critical Ukrainian media outlets and government websites. Promote positive narratives regarding the streamlining of the VLC process. Counter RUF propaganda exploiting UAF defensive preparations by framing them as resilience and strategic foresight. Immediately disseminate confirmed information regarding current drone impacts and AD efforts in Kyiv to maintain public trust and counter RUF claims of successful strikes on high-value targets.

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END OF REPORT