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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-03 08:57:39Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-03 08:27:41Z)

SITREP // 030853Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF claims of territorial gains, including Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Novonikolaevka, are partially corroborated. RUF sources claim entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), reinforced by new RUF video. RUF forces are approximately 2.5 km from the suburbs of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours, with continued clashes near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Koptyeve, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, and Oleksiyivka. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Yablunivka. RUF control over a portion of Toretsk's ruins is confirmed, but UAF continues successful defense. Capture of an RUF soldier on the Toretsk direction by UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade indicates active UAF defensive operations. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near". UAF General Staff confirms clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora. Russian forces have advanced into the Kanal microdistrict, establishing a foothold east of the canal. UAF units are conducting a tactical fighting withdrawal to more defensible, prepared positions on the western side. UAF drone footage shows strikes on trenches, fortified positions, and military vehicles in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar. RUF video shows a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount operating on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction. FPV drones of Russian forces are destroying UAF equipment and personnel on the outskirts of Konstantinovka. UAF sources confirm extensive destruction in Konstantinovka. UAF missile strike on Donetsk reported with smoke visible in the center and explosions. TASS confirmed at least 1 civilian death and 3 wounded from the strike on Donetsk. ASTRA reports three RUF servicemen were wounded in yesterday's strike on Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation and threat of RUF strike UAVs (likely Shahed-type) in Donetsk Oblast. RUF video shows detailed drone reconnaissance footage of Ukrainian positions in Donbas, indicating advanced RUF ISR and targeting capabilities. UAF reports a successful strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Donetsk Oblast on 30 JUN. Losses are being clarified. RUF video shows a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Novoyekonomicheskoye. UAF sources report successful strikes and high RUF casualties during tactical assaults by ATVs/motorcyclists in the Donetsk direction. BТYCOB ПЛЮС video shows a Russian soldier detonating an anti-personnel mine, indicating indiscriminate or reckless RUF tactics in mine-laden areas. TASS reports a Su-25 from the "Vostok" group destroyed a UAF strongpoint, indicating continued close air support for RUF ground units. Colonelcassad reports a Ka-52 helicopter engaged and shot down Ukrainian fixed-wing drones with Igla-V missiles. Сливочный каприз reports on a T-72 tank being destroyed near Borova-Druzhylivka by an FPV drone. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an FPV drone destroying a BM-21 Grad MLRS. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage, followed by friendly fire targeting and successful destruction. MoD Russia shares a video titled "00:00 A T-90 tank crew of the Tsentr Group of Forces neutralised an AFU machine-gun emplacement in Krasnoarmeysk direction." This confirms continued T-90 operations and targeting of UAF strongpoints in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Оперативна інформація станом на 16:00 02.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення" (Operational information as of 16:00 02.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion). This is a general update, suggesting no major, immediate shifts in the frontline or enemy disposition since the last report, but confirming ongoing engagements. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video with caption "Потеря связи." (Loss of connection), showing an aerial view of a damaged building and an explosion. This indicates continued RUF drone reconnaissance and targeting, possibly in the Donetsk region. The caption "Loss of connection" could refer to a UAF comms jam or a technical issue with the RUF drone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts "Семья, это артиллерия, бойцы работают на боевых машинах, которые поражают позиции противника на большом расстоянии." (Family, this is artillery, the fighters are working on combat vehicles that hit enemy positions that hit enemy positions at long range). This is a morale-boosting message highlighting RUF artillery capabilities. Басурин о главном shares a video encouraging subscription to his Telegram channel, which is a method for RUF-aligned sources to expand their information reach. Colonelcassad reports on the Russian MoD's summary of the "special military operation" as of July 2, 2025, which will provide RUF's official narrative of tactical successes. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video of multiple explosions, indicating RUF artillery or air strikes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining about "prison-like" living conditions, lack of food, and being confined, appealing for help. This suggests potential internal RUF morale and logistical issues, or could be a UAF PSYOP. НгП раZVедка shares a photo message "Хороший фотограф на вес золота." (A good photographer is worth his weight in gold), featuring a soldier in tactical gear, likely a morale-boosting post or an appreciation for combat documentation. Colonelcassad shares a video of a soldier engaging in a combat scenario with the caption "Стальной характер!" (Steel character!), a morale-boosting post. Старше Эдды shares photos from a meeting with officers in Rostov-on-Don, celebrating "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" and praising their service. This is a morale-boosting and propaganda effort to glorify military service and maintain support for the conflict. Fighterbomber shares a video of a "Звено штурмовиков" (flight of attack aircraft), likely Su-25s, indicating continued RUF close air support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video featuring a man identified as Shvartsman Aleksandr Anatolyevich, a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, discussing contract service and conditions. This indicates UAF is leveraging POWs for counter-propaganda about RUF recruitment. Два майора shares a video with a man speaking about something "актуалочка" (current/relevant), likely propaganda or a morale message. New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a large explosion with a mushroom cloud, indicating a powerful blast, possibly of a depot or storage facility. Another video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a significant explosion in a forested area. A third video from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a large-scale explosion affecting a highway. These videos likely depict the consequences of UAF strikes. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group showing coordinated movement and firing while advancing. This indicates continued offensive operations and training on the "Vostok" axis. Воин DV shares a video showing an aerial drone view of what appears to be a Russian drone control post and a relay antenna, with subsequent targeting and destruction. This indicates continued RUF ISR and precision strike capabilities against UAF C2. DeepState reports UAF 241st Territorial Defense Brigade's RUBAK 'Vyriy' working against RUF in southeast Kamyanske, including drone strikes on positions and armored vehicles (BMPs). MoD Russia UAV operators destroyed an international MaxxPro armoured fighting vehicle of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Konstantinovka direction and a minibus with enemy manpower inside near Belokuzminovka. Операция Z shares Russian propaganda footage from a drone's perspective, showcasing alleged attacks on Ukrainian vehicles and positions (truck, personnel carrier). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a drone strike on a soldier in a field, indicating UAF drone activity. Explosions are reported in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, with multiple UAF and RUF sources reporting on a potential ammunition depot strike. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claims the target was an ammunition depot for air defense, MLRS, and barrel artillery. Colonelcassad also reports a hit on a field ammunition depot near Khartsyzk. Alex Parker Returns claims a tactical nuclear weapon was used in Donetsk Oblast, this is highly unlikely and assessed as RUF disinformation. Военкор Котенок reports on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction with an annotated map. Colonelcassad reports a destroyed Ukrainian Humvee by RUF FPV drones in the Southern Donetsk direction. Сливочный каприз shares drone footage of destroyed buildings and troop movements, indicating ongoing military operations and damage in the area, likely Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video "Идем на Покровск: Результаты работы FPV группировки ЦЕНТР" (Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work), showing FPV drone strikes on an armored personnel carrier, a camera system on a tower, and an enemy shelter. New RUF video shows drone-operated mortar system firing on targets in a village from Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting continued RUF use of such systems and continued destruction. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launches guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports RUF has taken control of an AFU supply route in Krasnoarmiisk. Zvиздец Мангусту reports elements of RUF's 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Combined Arms Army, have deeply penetrated the flank defending Pokrovsk and Novopavlovsk axes along the southern bank of the Vovcha river, capturing Zaporizhzhia and Yalta, with advanced units reaching Zirka – Poddubnoye. Воин DV shares video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Colonelcassad shares video of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion destroying UAF vehicles and armored vehicles. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF resources engaged. NEW: Воин DV FPV operators from the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to destroy enemy equipment near Oktyabrskoye. (030700Z JUL 25) Два майора also report on the Zaporizhzhia front, with accompanying video. (030730Z JUL 25) Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles near Poltavka. (030804Z JUL 25) Kotsnews shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. (030805Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Mayak. (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Hlyboke, Zelene, Vovchansk, Milove, Ambarne and towards Mytrofanivka and Mala Shapkivka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyy Hay and towards Petropavlika (Kupyansk direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Ridkodub, Torske, Hrekivka, Hryhorivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Cherneschyna, Shandryholove, Seredne and Novyi Myr (Lyman direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Fedorivka and Vyyimka (Sieversk direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Bondarne, Markove and near Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Toretsk, Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Petrivka, Rusyn Yar and towards Pleschiyivka (Toretsk direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Myrne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Novomykolayivka, Novoserhiyivka, Dachne, Oleksiyivka, Horikhove and towards Volodymyrivka, Novopavlivka, Razine, Molodetske (Pokrovsk direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Zaporizhzhya, Yalta, Myrne, Piddubne and Shevchenko (Novopavlivka direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes near Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction). (030802Z JUL 25) NEW: Басурин о главном states "Ukraine is drowning in blood: the reckless tactics of the Kyiv regime lead to catastrophic losses at the front." (030831Z JUL 25) This is RUF propaganda regarding UAF casualties. Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, MEDIUM for specific unverified territorial control/BDA, LOW for RUF veracity, LOW on tactical nuclear weapon claim).

  • Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka). RUF claims regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR." RUF sources later corrected, stating two more villages near the border need to be cleared. UAF drone attack on Luhansk confirmed, causing fires and active RUF air defense. TASS reports over 20 UAVs flew over Luhansk. RUF conducted a combined strike to disrupt UAF rotation near Nadiya. RUF claims UAF were "knocked out" from the majority of positions on the heights near Bilohorivka. TASS claims 35 UAVs shot down over LNR, debris fell on a fuel depot, and one civilian woman was wounded. Рыбарь reports on the "liberation" of Grekovka (Luhansk Oblast) and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk Oblast) by Russian forces. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Ridkodub, Torske, Hrekivka, Hryhorivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Cherneschyna, Shandryholove, Seredne and Novyi Myr (Lyman direction). (030802Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, LOW for unverified RUF territorial claims).

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF attacked Nikopol district overnight with heavy artillery and FPV drones; 12 RUF UAVs were shot down. 4 civilians wounded in Nikopol due to FPV drone attack. RUF claims strikes on railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed Shahed attack on a military enlistment office (TCC), with 3 civilians wounded. RUF claims 114th Brigade "liberated" Dachne, with supporting video evidence. UAF Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) claims Russians did not break through to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with battles ongoing near the administrative border. UAF sources confirm overnight RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities in Synelnykivskyi district. RUF channel "Операция Z" claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire and civilian casualties (killed and wounded), including agricultural infrastructure damage. RUF video shows Russian forces raising their flag in Chernovaya Zirka, DNR, near the Dnipropetrovsk border. UAF video features Ukrainian soldiers discussing high attrition rates. Colonel Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, confirmed dead in Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Video showing RUF presence in Dachnoye (Dachne), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including flag raising and inspection of buildings. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos/videos show RUF capturing Dachne and raising Russian flag. STERNENKO reports RUF forces have indeed entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and shows drone footage of an RUF dugout in Dachne, contradicting the UAF General Staff's previous denial to RBC-Ukraine. STERNENKO's latest message at 09:13Z re-confirms the "kamikaze entry" into Dachne. UAF General Staff, at 09:07Z, issued a statement contradicting RUF claims, stating that any small reconnaissance groups that managed to penetrate the administrative border were destroyed. They re-emphasize their denial at 09:11Z and RBC-Ukraine reports the UAF General Staff's denial at 09:20Z. This creates a direct and immediate intelligence contradiction that requires further collection. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows two alleged RUF soldiers who "were lucky to survive during penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" speaking about surrender and defection to UAF, implying some RUF elements were contained or captured during penetration attempts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message (09:46Z) explicitly states "Dachne remains under the control of the Defense Forces - UAF General Staff." Воин DV video shows operators of the 5th Tank Guards Brigade conducting remote mining of a road near Voskresenka, confirming RUF intent to impede UAF movement in the area where they claim breakthroughs. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF units on that direction are clarifying the situation. Colonelcassad publishes a video claiming to show the "first captured Ukrainian soldier to surrender in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" from the 79th Brigade, which RUF states is attempting to close the breakthrough in the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: Владислав Чернов — военнослужащий ВСУ, один из тех, кого силой забрали представители ТЦК, без надлежащей подготовки почти сразу отправили на линию боевого соприкосновения. Его, как и многих других, использовали как живой ресурс, без сочувствия, без понимания и без малейшего шанса на возвращение. (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Чернов, who was supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly indicating AD activity. Олександр Вілкул (likely local Ukrainian official) posts photo messages with caption "ЗАКОНОМ НЕ ПРЕДБАЧЕНО, АЛЕ РОБИМО" (Not provided by law, but we are doing it) and various images of building interiors and exteriors. This likely refers to local initiatives for rebuilding or strengthening infrastructure, possibly related to defensive works or civilian shelters. This suggests local efforts to overcome limitations in legal/bureaucratic frameworks to support the war effort and civilian protection. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Дніпропетровська область (Синельниківський р-н) - загроза застосування авіаційних засобів ураження!" (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) - threat of aerial weapon use!). This indicates continued RUF air activity and threat to the region. STERNENKO reports "За віцепрем’єра Олексія Чернишова внесли заставу у 120 млн грн." (120 million UAH bail posted for Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov). This is an internal Ukrainian legal development that impacts public perception of governance. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing on the results of 02 JUL 25 for Kryvyi Rih. Colonelcassad reports that the deputy commander of the 110th Mechanized Brigade, Romanyuk, was also killed alongside Zakharevych in Huliaipole, indicating a significant decapitation strike. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Днепропетровское направление." The images display a rural, possibly forested or overgrown area with visible signs of recent ground disturbance and military activity, including what appears to be dugouts, trenches, or recently shelled areas. The context implies ongoing operations in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have abandoned their positions in Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a civilian woman injured in Polohy district due to RUF attack. Операция Z claims "Valiant" forces are breaking through towards Myrnohrad and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, further amplifying RUF claims of advance. Colonelcassad reports Russian soldier, Alexander Ershov, from the 80th Tank Regiment, claims capture of Petrovskoye and Yalta, and reaching Zirka – Poddubnoye. This is a significant claim of deep penetration, requiring verification. UAF Army Aviation and Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces celebrate their day in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued operational status despite combat. Олександр Вілкул reports 40 million passengers used public transport in Kryvyi Rih in the first half of the year, indicating a return to some normalcy and function of local administration despite the war. NEW: Олександр Вілкул (Olexandr Vilkul) posts photos celebrating Day of Army Aviation and Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces and Air Defense Missile Forces. (030717Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message (030749Z JUL 25) claiming RUF missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 01 JUL. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, warning of potential targeting. (030822Z JUL 25) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community in Synelnykivskyi district with a KAB." (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, and RUF claims of presence in Dachne; MEDIUM on verified RUF control of Dachne given strong, persistent UAF denials; CRITICAL intelligence contradiction regarding broader RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and associated UAF prisoner claims).

  • Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states Russian troops advance in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. UAF General Staff reports repelling 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF drone footage shows State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (ДПСУ) units "Prime" destroying enemy targets in the Kursk direction. RUF is conducting KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast. Konotop: MoD Russia claims "Geran-2 UAVs destroyed a temporary deployment area of the AFU 58th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and a UAV depot." UAF drone footage shows several deceased Russian soldiers in a "demilitarized buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims a company of UAF soldiers was destroyed in Yunakivka. RUF claims a fight near Tyotkino with Russian paratroopers storming positions. RUF claims repelled UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff publishes a map showing the frontline in Sumy Oblast for the first time since February. RUF Msta-S howitzer crew destroyed UAF fortified positions and personnel near Yunakivka. UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. STERNENKO [Video message] shows a reconnaissance drone being intercepted in Sumy Oblast by "Prime" forces. TASS reports video claiming drone operators of "Rubicon" center destroyed a Leopard 2A6 tank in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Швидкісна ціль на Сумщині." (High-speed target in Sumy Oblast.). This indicates potential continued aerial threat, likely a missile or fast-moving drone. РБК-Україна reports a passenger minibus was damaged by a drone attack in Sumy, indicating civilian impact. WarGonzo reports Russian tanks and artillery are breaking UAF logistics in Sumy Oblast, confirming RUF presence in the "grey zone" near the border. Два майора reports drone activity in Sumy direction, showing multiple explosions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Сумська область - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА." (Sumy Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs.). STERNENKO reports "Загроза ударних БПЛА із північного сходу." (Threat of strike UAVs from the northeast.) TASS reports an outflow of population from Sumy, citing Russian security forces. Colonelcassad reports Ussuriysk paratroopers destroying UAF infantry in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction, according to security forces. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the southern part of Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Sumy Oblast. UAF resources engaged. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030709Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target in Sumy Oblast from Kursk direction, heading towards Bilopillia. (030719Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, citing the mayor. (030721Z JUL 25) Nikolaevsky Vanek warns of 8 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) en route to/through Konotop. (030717Z JUL 25) Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" for mopeds in Konotop. (030734Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports explosion in Konotop, with the city under UAV attack. (030737Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030751Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. (030802Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on stabilized front line, UAF defensive successes, and ongoing RUF KAB/drone activity; MEDIUM on specific unverified HVT loss; MEDIUM for claimed Leopard destruction due to RUF source; MEDIUM on population outflow, as it is from a RUF source; MEDIUM on TASS claim of UAF losses, awaiting UAF confirmation).

  • Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman) and ground clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Stroyivka and towards Kutkivka, and Kupyansk direction near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zelenyi Hai. Vovchansk: RUF video confirms a TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system strike on the "butter extraction plant." Pisochyn: 8 people injured, including one child, from RUF drone attack. Korotych airfield: RUF claims strike on airfield. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe, Dovhenke and towards Petro-Ivanivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and Holubivka, Pischane and towards Novoosynove (Kupyansk direction). Kharkiv experienced a record number of Russian air attacks in June 2025. RUF video shows the destruction of a UAF L-119 howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. RUF claims forces have secured positions near Kondrashovka and occupied approximately 3 hectares near Petropavlovka. RUF claims security forces destroyed Ukrainian National Guard "Khartiya" brigade officers in Liptsy. Hostile UAV detected over Kharkiv. Explosion in Kharkiv, city under drone attack. One-story non-residential building on fire in Novobavarskyi district. One person killed, one wounded in Kharkiv Oblast from night attacks. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions on targets in Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) reports on the Kharkiv direction without specific details, indicating continued RUF focus on the area. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an air defense unit of the "Iron Brigade" successfully hunted down enemy targets yesterday, indicating continued defensive operations. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting and engaging a Russian "Orlan-10" reconnaissance drone on July 1st. Oleg Synyegubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports on the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, detailing ongoing Russian attacks including shelling and drone strikes on residential buildings and critical infrastructure. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv communities received vehicles from the German government. РБК-Україна shares video of SFO soldiers showing a successful raid on Russians near the border, including a captured soldier. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛸 На Харківщині - ворожий розвідувальний БпЛА! Можлива робота ППО." (Kharkiv Oblast - enemy reconnaissance UAV! Possible air defense activity.). This indicates continued RUF ISR efforts and UAF AD response. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Пуски керованих авіаційних бомб ворожою тактичною авіацією на Харківщину зі сходу." (Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east). This confirms continued RUF glide bomb use on Kharkiv. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports "Двоє людей постраждали внаслідок атак ворожими FPV-дронами на Харківщині." (Two people injured as a result of enemy FPV drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast). This indicates continued civilian targeting and the threat of FPV drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "ССО провели наліт на групу росіян поблизу кордону" (SFO conducted a raid on a group of Russians near the border), which appears to show Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducting an operation against Russian forces, including the capture of prisoners. This confirms successful UAF tactical action in border areas. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts "🏠 Родини Захисників з Харківщини отримали сертифікати на нове житло." (Families of Defenders from Kharkiv Oblast received certificates for new housing.). This indicates continued civilian support and social welfare efforts in the region, aimed at bolstering morale. Kadyrov_95 (Akhmat Special Forces 'Baty' Group) claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian dugout with personnel inside on the Kharkiv direction. "ZONA SVO" channel repeats this claim. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational/recruitment video for "Khartia" unit, mentioning drone operators and EW specialists. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new UAV movement from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports impact drones are observed in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a UAF T-64BV tank by "Rubicon" FPV drone operators in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted more than 15 attacks near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, losing about 250 soldiers and 12 armored vehicles in unsuccessful counterattacks. New RUF reports indicate that Ivanovske paratroopers destroyed a UAF observation post in a residential building in Chasiv Yar. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports enemy strikes on 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Chuhuiv, Kupiansk, Bohodukhiv districts). TASS reports UAF has reinforced its grouping in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast, with a new unit – the Unmanned Systems Forces. NEW: Air Force reports targets in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. (030736Z JUL 25) Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. (030745Z JUL 25) OTU Kharkiv provides an informational message, likely a summary of the situation in the Kharkiv operational zone. (030748Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Hlyboke, Zelene, Vovchansk, Milove, Ambarne and towards Mytrofanivka and Mala Shapkivka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction). (030802Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyy Hay and towards Petropavlika (Kupyansk direction). (030802Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on airstrikes, ground clashes, civilian casualties, and continued RUF offensive intent; HIGH on RUF intelligence regarding UAF drone training; HIGH on RUF volunteer fundraising for combat operations).

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. Battles for Kamyanske are in full swing. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske, and near Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). Kadyrovites (Chechen special forces) are being prepared for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with approximately 15 military trucks moving them to Enerhodar / Melitopol / Vasylivka area. RUF attack on an agricultural enterprise in Polohy district. Civilian vehicle engulfed in flames in Zaporizhzhia after a Russian attack. RUF launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district. A 56-year-old man was wounded in Polohy district. Complex night in Zaporizhzhia, with one district subjected to Shahed drone attacks. Over 400 shellings across the region, with 4 drones hitting an industrial enterprise and one Shahed hitting a residential area. RUF channel reports artillery of the 35th Army continues to work on "planned targets" in the Polohy direction. Two people wounded from an enemy attack on Polohy district. RUF posts multiple photos and videos confirming a night strike by "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. UAF operational information as of 08:00 (local time) and photos confirming UAF strikes on enemy locations. Colonel Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, killed in Huliaipole. RUF reports strike on the 110th Brigade in Huliaipole, claiming the death of the brigade commander and other officers. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on positive harvest forecasts for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued agricultural activity despite hostilities. WarGonzo shares a video showing aerial reconnaissance or drone footage capturing ground-level activity in a wooded or brushy area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating active military operations and RUF presence. Colonelcassad reports FSB detaining three residents of Zaporizhzhia Oblast for transferring funds to Ukrainian special services and military. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of tax officials receiving awards in Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued civilian administration and morale-boosting events. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts "🚨УВАГА🚨" (ATTENTION) likely a warning for air threats. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also posts photo messages about an upcoming Facebook and Instagram live stream and another about the head of Polohy district administration discussing the war's impact on communities, highlighting continued civilian administration and morale-boosting efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an educational project "ELITA UFUTURE" for schoolchildren, aimed at connecting students with enterprises, indicating efforts to support youth development and economic recovery. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 70-year-old woman was wounded in Orikhiv from an enemy attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z reports RUF has secured positions in the center of Kamyanske and is cutting it into two parts. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Запорожское направление." The images depict a desolate, likely combat-affected landscape, characterized by bare trees, possibly indicating a forested area or tree line, with visible smoke or haze in the background. No specific military equipment or personnel are clearly identifiable. The presence of smoke or haze might suggest recent combat activity or ongoing fires. New UAF message "🚨УВАГА🚨" from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration likely indicates ongoing air threat. New RUF video shows mortar fire and destruction of positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. WarGonzo map indicates UAF offensive actions (grey drone icon) near Malaya Tokmachka and Shcherbaky, and offensive actions (red drone icon) near Stepove. UAF also conducting drone strikes (grey drone icon) near Stepove. RUF also making tactical advances indicated by red arrows north of Kamenskoye, near Shcherbaky, and north of Malaya Tokmachka. NEW: Два майора shares video of RUF forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (030700Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports HUR showed unique footage of the destruction of RUF drone operators in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (030708Z JUL 25) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos on veterans participating in Greco-Roman wrestling in Zaporizhzhia. (030704Z JUL 25) Zaporizhzhia OVA shares video celebrating Army Aviation Day. (030740Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction). (030802Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, artillery activity, and Kadyrovite buildup; LOW on verified RUF control of Kamyanske; HIGH on civilian support and resilience efforts; HIGH on FSB operations in occupied territories).

  • Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF photos indicate continued presence and focus. UAF posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling. RUF shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing one man and wounding another. A hospital in Kherson was attacked by RUF artillery yesterday around 23:00, resulting in 5 wounded patients and 3 wounded nurses. RUF claims "Dnipro" grouping artillery destroyed a UAF Grad MLRS. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an enemy helicopter conducting reconnaissance near the Black Sea coast. Два majora (RUF source) shares a video of a Russian military truck with an anti-aircraft gun operating in the Kherson direction. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) reports a meeting with families of marine infantry brigades (34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 39th Separate Marine Infantry Brigades) regarding soldiers captured or missing in action near Krynky. Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) shares a video with the caption "Ворог продовжує обстрілювати цивільних та медичні заклади!" (The enemy continues to shell civilians and medical facilities!), showing the aftermath of shelling on a medical facility in Kherson. This confirms continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. Colonelcassad reports a conviction in the Kherson Oblast Court for a Russian citizen transferring information to Ukrainian special services. UAF General Staff reports only one RUF ship in Black Sea and six in Azov, none with Kalibrs, indicating degraded RUF naval presence. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 16 enemy assaults repelled in the last 24 hours in Orikhiv and Kherson directions. RUF suffered losses of 135 personnel, 4 guns, 2 mortar launchers, 2 reconnaissance UAVs, 2 EW stations, 2 communication stations, 1 engineering vehicle, 1 boat, and 1 vehicle. RUF launched 10 Lancet UAVs, 1 tactical aircraft KAB strike, and 12 FPV drones, all targeting the Orikhiv direction. RUF continues to shell settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro, causing significant destruction. NEW: Два майора shares video of Russian forces in the Kherson direction. (030715Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 2 Russian army assaults (Kherson direction). (030802Z JUL 25) Два майора posts a video "This morning in Belgorod Oblast. People live in such conditions for years." (030849Z JUL 25) This refers to the situation in Russia, but implies continued cross-border shelling impacting civilian life. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. 14 Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD. Odesa Coastal Logistics/Oil Refinery: RUF reports a "powerful strike and huge fire" at an enemy object near Odesa, with video evidence. TASS reports RUF struck an oil terminal supplying fuel to the Ukrainian Navy. NASA satellite data corroborates fires in the area of grain and fuel terminals. UAF Naval Forces report no Russian naval presence in Black Sea, 2 ships in Azov, 1 in Mediterranean (no missile carriers). UAF video shows destruction of an "aerial target (Geran)" over Odesa. Explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27, citing GUR. RUF reports discovery of "Geranium" UAV debris in Odesa with unusual two-letter tail numbers. RUF drone attacks on Izmail district damaged port and tourist infrastructure. Rybar reports on strike results in Vilkovo, Odesa region, implying continued targeting of coastal areas. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF is suspected in a series of tanker explosions after they entered Russian ports. This suggests UAF is being attributed with kinetic actions against Russian maritime logistics, potentially expanding the maritime domain of conflict. RUF source "Два майора" reports Financial Times (FT) claims Ukrainian special services may be involved in blowing up Russian ships. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 RUF "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) flying towards Odesa/Lymanka, warning of imminent loud events. This is followed by a report that 4 of the 5 drones were downed. РБК-Україна reports AD activity in Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV heading towards Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк confirms 1 drone remaining heading towards Odesa and then reports all drones from the sea are down. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa, citing Trukhanov. ASTRA shares photos of apartments burning in a residential high-rise in Odesa after an RUF attack, confirming civilian impact. РБК-Україна reports Odesa is under drone attack. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa. РБК-Україна reports five people were rescued from upper floors in Odesa after the attack. РБК-Україна shares video footage showing firefighters and rescue operations in a damaged nine-story building in Odesa, including evacuation of civilians. The video confirms significant damage to the building and the ongoing emergency response by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС). РБК-Україна also shares photos of the aftermath of the Odesa attack, showing significant damage to residential areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm 3 civilians hospitalized after Odesa attack, indicating continuing impact. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new photo and video messages showing the aftermath of the Odesa attack, including a large apartment building engulfed in flames and emergency services on scene. ASTRA reports 4 people injured in Odesa multi-story building attack, citing State Emergency Service of Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of the Odesa apartment building being hit. РБК-Україна reports 5 people, including 2 children, were injured in the attack on Odesa. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 5 casualties, 2 children injured. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were shot down. Север.Реалии shares photo messages depicting a multi-story residential building damaged by a drone hit in Odesa, confirming casualties. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Odesa attack increased to five. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) reports 10 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the southern operational zone over the past day. (030703Z JUL 25) Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine post images commemorating Army Aviation Day. (030740Z JUL 25) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares images of apartment building on fire in Odesa from RUF shelling (030803Z JUL 25) Сили оборони Півдня України posts videos and photos showing the aftermath of a night attack on Odesa. (030842Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.

  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure. RUF claims destroyed Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv. RUF claims destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka. Astra reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 114 drones and 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH (on attacks and civilian impacts; MEDIUM on specific RUF BDA claims).

  • Kyiv Oblast: Massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles passing Slavutych towards Kyiv. UAF AD was operating effectively. Two UAF Air Force pilots, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko and Oleksiy "Moonfish" Mes, killed while repelling the attack. UAF General Staff confirmed a massed missile-drone attack with over 500 air targets launched and 475 targets neutralized, with an additional 226 suppressed by EW. Ukrainian UAV manufacturer founder warns Kyiv may become "most vulnerable and dangerous" due to critical air defense deficit. Syrskyi states basic general training will be increased from 49 to 51 days, with two additional days for training against enemy strike UAVs. UAF General Staff posts photos from a meeting regarding countering Russian strike UAVs. KVA complains about lack of modular shelters despite 3.5 years of war. Zelenskiy signed documents for the ratification of the Agreement on the creation of a Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine. KVM A (Kyiv City Military Administration) states that Klychko (Mayor of Kyiv) claims there are no powers to place mobile shelters in the capital. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims "Kyiv is in a panic due to the halt of US supplies." РБК-Україна reports "У Києві відбулась зустріч японської бізнес-делегації: основні напрямки співпраці в Україні" (A meeting of the Japanese business delegation took place in Kyiv: main areas of cooperation in Ukraine). This indicates continued international business engagement and confidence in Kyiv despite ongoing attacks. Zelenskyy states that details regarding US defense support and air defense components are being clarified at working levels between Ukraine and the US. He also mentioned preparing new agreements with Denmark and other partners for joint weapons production, including interceptor drones. KVM A (Kyiv City Military Administration) repeats Zelenskyy's statement, indicating aligned messaging. KVM A announces an air raid alert in Kyiv due to UAV threat. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and later confirms a UAV heading towards Kyiv from the east. РБК-Україна confirms the UAV movement. KVM A reports that air defense is operating in the capital. РБК-Україна confirms explosions and AD activity in Kyiv. KVM A announces the end of the air raid alert in Kyiv. ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were neutralized overnight. NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing air defense operations, emphasizing their efforts. (030710Z JUL 25) КМВА posts video commemorating Day of Army Aviation (030802Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.

  • Cherkasy Oblast: RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to three nine-story buildings and a college. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. Operativny ZSU photo message from SBU about an FSB agent exposed for helping prepare shelling of Cherkasy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports SBU exposed a 20-year-old student preparing new strikes on Cherkasy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Poltava Oblast: Kremenchug: RUF video confirms a successful strike on the Kremenchug oil refinery. UAV groups are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast, heading south. Strike UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new UAV movement from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна reports on updated data about the movement of strike drones from Air Force. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the southern part of Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. Explosions reported in Poltava. UAF Air Force reports UAVs heading towards Poltava from the north and west. RBK-Ukraine confirms drone activity near Poltava. Poltava City Council reports Poltava was under a massive attack by Russian drones. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over an urban area, followed by smoke and secondary explosions, with the caption claiming "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) struck a TCC building in Poltava. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike with a video of a large smoke plume, stating "Geraniums" hit a "local lair of man-catchers" (referring to TCC). Alex Parker Returns also reports the strike on the Poltava TCC building, framing it as a "new trend." STERNENKO reports explosions in Poltava from Shahed attacks. NEW: Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030706Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports RUF attacked a TCC building in Poltava. (030716Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC with fatalities and injuries. (030719Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC, causing a fire. (030720Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries from the Poltava TCC strike, including civilians. (030721Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. (030723Z JUL 25) Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. (030730Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. (030735Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030741Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030743Z JUL 25) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded after hits on TCC and nearby buildings in Poltava. (030758Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath of strike on Poltava. (030801Z JUL 25) ASTRA reports 2 killed, 11 injured in Poltava. (030840Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports that military personnel are among the injured in Poltava. (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on strikes and UAV activity; HIGH on UAF internal anti-corruption efforts).

  • Lviv Oblast: Drohobych: RUF video shows multiple missile/drone impacts and explosions at a refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast. Freight train derailed in Rivne Oblast. Discovery of cluster munitions after an RUF attack in Lviv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Colonelcassad reports "В Житомире ракетные прилеты." (Missile strikes in Zhytomyr). This confirms RUF missile attacks impacting Zhytomyr Oblast, west of Kyiv. The accompanying video by Colonelcassad shows a significant explosion and plume of smoke near a gas station and warehouse, corroborated by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ. New messages confirm a strong explosion in Zhytomyr, with media reports suggesting an impact at a gas station or fuel object, with associated photo and video evidence from multiple sources (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС). РБК-Україна reports multiple explosions at a gas station in Berezino village. Alex Parker Returns also reports explosions near Zhytomyr and that the explosion occurred at a warehouse of an industrial enterprise in Berezina, where heavy trucks were likely transporting ammunition. Multiple sources (ASTRA, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Операція Z, РБК-Україна, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок) confirm a large explosion in Zhytomyr or near the Zhytomyr-Kyiv highway, with initial reports pointing to a gas station and later conflicting reports suggesting a warehouse or ammunition depot. The M-06 Kyiv - Chop highway is closed due to the explosion. Casualties are reported but not yet confirmed. The impact affected civilian houses. UAF sources are verifying the exact site. РБК-Україна reports a video from a gas station near Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна reports the Zhytomyr OVA has published phone numbers for assistance in Berezino village, confirming civilian impact. Colonelcassad shares new video of the aftermath. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video evidence, stating the epicenter was not the gas station itself. ASTRA reports a SOCAR gas station was damaged with casualties. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of the explosion near a McDonald's. Два майора shares multiple videos of the Zhytomyr explosions, showing vehicles burning on a highway. РБК-Україна reports that over 700 homes were de-energized due to the explosion near Zhytomyr. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that two production facilities were completely destroyed near Zhytomyr, with 2 killed and 15 injured. Alex Parker Returns reiterates the destruction of two production facilities. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in Zhytomyr has risen to 24. РБК-Україна confirms both Zhytomyr explosions occurred at a private enterprise. Старше Эдды claims the Zhytomyr explosion was at an ammunition depot on a furniture factory premises. Операция Z and Оперативний ЗСУ share new video messages of the aftermath of the Zhytomyr explosion, with RUF sources claiming it was a Polish factory and UAF sources showing distant explosions and an impacted industrial building. Movement on the Kyiv-Chop highway has been fully restored. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports injured in Zhytomyr region increased to 82, with 2 killed. (030812Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна shares video detailing 82 injured in Zhytomyr. (030835Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on explosions and civilian impact; MEDIUM on exact target; HIGH on casualty increase).

  • Russian Territory (Saratov / Engels / Ulyanovsk / Rostov Oblast / Kazan / Nizhnekamsk / Izhevsk / Nizhny Novgorod Oblast / Khabarovsk Krai / St. Petersburg / Ukhta / Moscow / Tambov / Voronezh / Lipetsk / Yelets / Samara / Kotovsk / Irkutsk): Saratov/Engels: Explosions and sirens reported. Three drones fell on the territory of the Saratov oil refinery this morning. Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Saratov airport. Ulyanovsk: Temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. Rostov: RUF Air Defense destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts of Rostov Oblast. Kazan: Temporary flight restrictions imposed at Kazan airport. Nizhnekamsk: Nizhnekamsk Airport suspended operations. RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. Izhevsk: Drone attack on a military enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol" (produces Tor and Osa AD systems and drones for RUF army). Confirmed by SBU and UAF General Staff. Personnel evacuated, firefighters extinguishing fires. At least 9 people injured, rising to 45 injured, 3 killed, 35 hospitalized, 10 critical. ASTRA posts photos with caption "Четыре цеха по производству БПЛА повреждены на ижевском заводе «Купол» после вчерашней атаки. Работа предприятия остановлена" (Four UAV production workshops damaged at Izhevsk "Kupol" plant after yesterday's attack. Enterprise operation stopped). This confirms successful UAF deep strike and significant impact on RUF military industrial complex. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and STERNENKO confirm the damage to the Izhevsk 'Kupol' plant, specifically identifying it as a producer of Shahed and Harpya-A1 kamikaze drones, and confirming the SBU strike on July 1. ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk for two weeks prior to the attack, causing public complaints. Crimea: UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacked Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС reports "В Криму ліквідовано Командувача Чорноморського флоту рф, – z-воєнкори." (Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet liquidated in Crimea, - z-milbloggers). This indicates a significant UAF HVT targeting claim, albeit from a pro-Russian source. Confidence: MEDIUM (requires further verification). Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: An Su-34 fighter jet crashed. Navigator died. Pilots ejected. Main landing gear malfunction. Saratov oil refinery: UAF General Staff officially confirmed attack. TASS reports an ongoing criminal investigation into the head of "Forpost Baltiki Plus," Evgeny Kononov, for embezzlement from a Russian MoD contract in Kaliningrad Oblast. This indicates ongoing internal corruption issues. TASS reports a Headhunter mobile application failure, which could impact military recruitment or civilian labor movement. TASS reports Russian MoD claims ВС РФ за сутки поразили предприятие ВПК, цеха сборки БПЛА и места их хранения (VPC enterprise, UAV assembly workshops, and storage sites). Kotsnews reports Северяне уничтожили две вражеские ДРГ в окрестностях Горналя (Northern forces destroyed two enemy DRGs in the vicinity of Gornal). ASTRA reports a postgraduate student convicted for anti-war actions was released in St. Petersburg, indicating limited internal dissent is being contained. WarGonzo reports a monument to "Motorola" in Ukhta, glorifying separatist figures. TASS reports the former first deputy head of Khimki, Nikolay Minaev, was arrested in absentia for bribery exceeding 6 million rubles, further indicating internal anti-corruption efforts within Russia. ASTRA reports additional memorial plaques for war dead being installed in Saratov, noting a consistent increase in reported fatalities. Полиция Хабаровского края reports МВД awards for police officers saving a civilian, indicating continued domestic security focus and propaganda. Север.Реалии reports Russian companies sharply increased wage arrears. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video of multiple explosions, indicating RUF artillery or air strikes. TASS reports "По делу о поставке некачественных бронежилетов в ВС РФ арестованы доли в фирмах, земля и счета связанных с главой ГК "Пикет" людей, передает корреспондент ТАСС." (In the case of supplying low-quality body armor to the Russian Armed Forces, shares in firms, land, and accounts of people connected with the head of "Piket" Group of Companies have been arrested, TASS correspondent reports). This indicates continued internal anti-corruption or efficiency investigations within the Russian military procurement system. Север.Реалии reports ""Верстка": с начала войны против Украины звания Героев России получили 459 участников боевых действий, из них 217 – посмертно" ("Verstka": Since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, 459 combatants have received the title of Hero of Russia, 217 of them posthumously). This provides data on RUF official recognition of military personnel and implicitly, the scale of their casualties. Moscow: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС reports "⚡️У центрі Москви прогриміли кілька вибухів — за словами очевидців, згоріло щонайменше два автомобілі." (⚡️Several explosions thundered in the center of Moscow - according to eyewitnesses, at least two cars burned down.). This indicates potential internal security incidents in Moscow. Операция Z reports "‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠В центре Москвы взорвалась машина с 80-летним ветераном КГБ и его дочерью, которая также работала в спецслужбах, - СМИ" (‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠In the center of Moscow, a car with an 80-year-old KGB veteran and his daughter, who also worked in special services, exploded, - media). This confirms an explosion in Moscow involving high-value, albeit retired, targets. TASS reports a new court arrest in the Ural murders case (Kamal Safarov), indicating continued domestic law enforcement activity. TASS also shares two new videos regarding the filming of a music video for "Intervision-25" in Moscow for the singer Shaman. This indicates continued efforts to maintain civilian normalcy and national cultural events. TASS reports a case of "detonation of a powder box" in Chelyabinsk, resulting in a man losing both hands, and criminal cases being opened. ASTRA reports seventh and eighth Azerbaijani figure arrested in Yekaterinburg in the murder case, confirming ongoing arrests that fuel diplomatic tensions. ASTRA also reports three 16-year-old schoolchildren are being held in Grozny police for seven months without charges, signaling human rights concerns. ASTRA shares a video of an urban explosion in Russia, with smoke from a building. ASTRA shares video of industrial fire/smoke with a drone overhead. ASTRA shares video of a street scene with military-looking truck. ASTRA shares various images of internal Russian life that does not hold military intelligence value. ASTRA also shares comments from Izhevsk residents complaining about internet jamming prior to the attack. TASS reports the CIA acknowledged its assessment of Russian interference in the 2016 US elections might have been politically motivated. TASS reports Russian airlines transported almost 50 million people in the first half of 2025. TASS reports Durov denies Telegram leaving Russia. Colonelcassad reports a Chinese journalist wounded in Kursk Oblast returned to work. TASS reports the MFA urges Russian citizens in Azerbaijan to be careful. Colonelcassad reports Rostec launched an ammunition plant in Venezuela. ASTRA reports a Belarusian blogger, Vlad Bumaga, was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber" in Naberezhnye Chelny. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees in memory of missing servicemen. Colonelcassad reports the CIA officially disavowed accusations against Russia concerning the 2016 US election interference. MoD Russia shows a daily news update including claims of destroying a Ukrainian Humvee and a Leopard 2A6 tank. Colonelcassad describes the Izhevsk attack as a possible "Web" or "Luty" modernization. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports an air threat warning for Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov also reports a drone attack threat on Usmana and Dobrinsky districts. TASS reports that the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. TASS reports Russian calculations of UAF losses (over 265,000 killed and wounded in H1 2025). Colonelcassad reports continued mine clearance in Sudzha border area. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport. ASTRA also confirms temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport. ТАСС reports Russian AD destroyed over 5 drones over Voronezh Oblast, with no casualties. ASTRA reports roof damage to a private house in Voronezh Oblast after a UAV attack. РБК-Україна posts multiple videos of alleged unknown drones attacking Lipetsk Oblast, including views of industrial chimneys and city skylines with flashes, indicating continued deep strikes within Russia. ASTRA reports residents of Lipetsk and the surrounding oblast reported a large number of explosions. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, confirmed that drone debris fell on a private residential building in Lipetsk district, resulting in one fatality (female, born 1954) and two injuries. Colonelcassad shares photo messages stating that TsNIITOCHMASH (Central Research Institute for Precision Machine Building) has increased production of universal packaging for high-precision munitions actively used in the SVO zone. The images accompanying the messages show various rugged, waterproof, and impact-resistant cases, typically used for transporting sensitive equipment like high-precision munitions. Igor Artamonov also reports a drone strike on a building in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, causing damage to glazing in a residential section but no immediate casualties, with residents evacuated. This further confirms continued deep strikes inside Russian territory. TASS reports the arrest of the deputy head of Roshydromet, Natalia Radkova, in a large-scale fraud case, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts. ASTRA reports the governor of Lipetsk Oblast stated that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries, confirming civilian impact in Russia. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reports a fire caused by a drone falling on a parking lot of an enterprise in Yelets, which has been localized with no casualties reported. Igor Artamonov also reports continued red alert for drone attack in Yelets and Yelets district. TASS reports a fire at an enterprise in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, after a UAV fall, with no casualties reported. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of drones visiting Russia at night, with explosions reported in Lipetsk and Voronezh Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares video reporting an attack on the sanctioned "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. ASTRA shares new video footage from Lipetsk night attacks. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions lifted at Tambov airport. TASS reports 3 killed and 3 injured in a fire at an enterprise in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast. TASS and ASTRA report temporary flight restrictions in Samara airport. Igor Artamonov reports cancellation of the "yellow" (moderate) level of missile danger in Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports a patient attacked medical staff with a knife in Irkutsk, injuring two. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 69 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian AD overnight. TASS reports flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, showing smoke and damaged areas. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath of the attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. RUF MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova states work is underway to ensure consular access to Russian journalists arrested in Azerbaijan. RUF Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, Igor Artamonov, visited victims of the UAV attack, stating no temporary relocation centers were needed. Север.Реалии reports the Ministry of Defense stated 69 drones were shot down, and a woman died in Lipetsk Oblast after falling debris, confirming civilian casualties from UAF deep strikes. Igor Artamonov reports drone debris found in Lipetsk, Yelets, and Lipetsk district, confirming widespread UAF drone activity. ASTRA reports a 23-year-old Russian woman was detained in St. Petersburg by the FSB for attempting to plant an explosive device under a defense enterprise employee's car, indicating continued UAF attempts at sabotage within Russia. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attack on Lomakovka, Starodubsky municipal district, indicating continued UAF cross-border strikes. NEW: TASS reports the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation is demanding the nationalization of the "Yuzhuralzoloto" company belonging to billionaire Konstantin Strukov. (030706Z JUL 25) ASTRA reports three killed and three injured in a fire at an enterprise in Tambov Oblast, citing the acting governor. (030711Z JUL 25) TASS reports mobile internet will be restricted in Rostov Oblast due to UAV attacks. (030743Z JUL 25) TASS reports a man arrested for attacking polyclinic staff, claiming he wanted to kill the doctor. (030732Z JUL 25) Север.Реалии reports Petersburg police detained a woman suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. (030808Z JUL 25) TASS reports property of head of construction supervision department of MoD Kozhevnikov has been arrested. (030807Z JUL 25) TASS reports Samara airport restrictions lifted. (030819Z JUL 25) Igor Strelkov comments on Izhevsk attack. (030815Z JUL 25) ASTRA shares a photo message that the Prosecutor General's Office is demanding nationalization of a gold company. (030829Z JUL 25) TASS reports 3 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Samara and Belgorod Oblasts. (030835Z JUL 25) Север.Реалии reports a woman (Yulia Moskovskaya) was detained for preparing a terrorist attack. (030841Z JUL 25) Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." (030841Z JUL 25) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts "Places for the names of the dead have run out on the stele in Saratov." (030850Z JUL 25) Операция Z shares photo message on "Ukraine on the verge of defeat due to freezing of US aid." (030851Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity; MEDIUM on precise figures for shot-down UAVs; LOW on veracity of some RUF claims; HIGH on new RUF legislative measures impacting conscription/mobilization; HIGH on ASTRA report of casualties and wage arrears; HIGH on Lipetsk drone threat, HIGH on US warning to Ukraine, LOW on TASS UAF loss figures).

  • International: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ reports on Chinese blocking Guam, which if true, signifies an increased level of international military tension in the Pacific. Kotsnews reports Russian MFA warned citizens about travel to Azerbaijan. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring a female spokesperson from the Russian MFA discussing relations. РБК-Україна reports "Лукашенко відпустив ще 16 людей після візиту Келлога" (Lukashenka released another 16 people after Kellogg's visit). This could be a diplomatic gesture by Belarus, possibly linked to its relationship with Russia or its internal political dynamics. ТАСС reports "Посол России в Азербайджане был вызван в МИД республики, сообщил азербайджанский МИД." (Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the republic, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported). ТАСС further reports "Вызванному в МИД Азербайджана послу РФ выражен протест в связи с недружественными шагами российской стороны, сообщил МИД республики." (Protest expressed to the Russian Ambassador summoned to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with unfriendly steps by the Russian side, the republic's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported). ТАСС also reports "От россиян в Азербайджане поступили жалобы на применение физического насилия, проверки документов, визиты неизвестных лиц, сообщили в пососольстве РФ." (Complaints received from Russians in Azerbaijan about physical violence, document checks, visits by unknown persons, reported the Russian Embassy). ТАСС reports "Азербайджан не ответил на ноты с требованием предоставить консульский доступ к арестованным россиянам, рассказали в пососольстве РФ в Баку." (Azerbaijan has not responded to notes demanding consular access to arrested Russians, the Russian Embassy in Baku said). These collectively confirm a significant diplomatic spat between Russia and Azerbaijan, likely related to the ongoing arrests of Azerbaijanis in Russia. Военкор Котенок and Операция Z amplify these reports, confirming the narrative is being pushed by RUF-aligned sources. РБК-Україна reports "У Німеччині піймали росіян на пропаганді через інтернет-ЗМІ" (Russians caught in Germany on propaganda through online media). This indicates continued RUF information operations targeting European countries. Colonelcassad reports "Занимавшуюся похищениями нелегальных мигрантов банду граждан Украины ликвидировали в Польше, сообщает польское радио RFM." (A gang of Ukrainian citizens involved in abducting illegal migrants was liquidated in Poland, Polish radio RFM reports). This is likely an RUF information operation designed to discredit Ukrainian citizens and potentially sow discord between Ukraine and its EU partners. Rybar reports on strike results in Vilkovo, Odesa region, implying continued targeting of coastal areas. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF is suspected in a series of tanker explosions after they entered Russian ports. This suggests UAF is being attributed with kinetic actions against Russian maritime logistics, potentially expanding the maritime domain of conflict. RUF source "Два майора" reports Financial Times (FT) claims Ukrainian special services may be involved in blowing up Russian ships. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 RUF "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) flying towards Odesa/Lymanka, warning of imminent loud events. This is followed by a report that 4 of the 5 drones were downed. РБК-Україна reports AD activity in Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV heading towards Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк confirms 1 drone remaining heading towards Odesa and then reports all drones from the sea are down. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa, citing Trukhanov. ASTRA shares photos of apartments burning in a residential high-rise in Odesa after an RUF attack, confirming civilian impact. РБК-Україна reports Odesa is under drone attack. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa. РБК-Україна reports five people were rescued from upper floors in Odesa after the attack. РБК-Україна shares video footage showing firefighters and rescue operations in a damaged nine-story building in Odesa, including evacuation of civilians. The video confirms significant damage to the building and the ongoing emergency response by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС). РБК-Україна also shares photos of the aftermath of the Odesa attack, showing significant damage to residential areas. TASS reports that the Kiev leadership expects European countries to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US, citing Politico. Rybar reports on the crisis in the Middle East as of July 2. TASS reports Qatar is ready to facilitate resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, relying on diplomacy. Colonelcassad shares an infographic about the US 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force in Wiesbaden, Germany, indicating RUF monitoring of NATO developments. Басурин о главном discusses how the West will continue to build "Anti-Russia" even if Ukraine is reduced to two regions, indicating a long-term geopolitical struggle. ASTRA shares a photo message stating that Hungarian authorities used a caricature of Zelenskyy in a campaign against the opposition, indicating foreign interference in Ukrainian information space. Два майора reports that the West has intensified preparations for parliamentary elections in Moldova, indicating continued regional geopolitical focus. The Economist reports Ukraine faces "reckoning" due to the cessation of US arms supplies. Operational Z reports the decision on the fate of arms supplies to Ukraine lies with Trump and Heggset, framing it as a US political political decision. Rybar shares a photo message discussing how the British government is looking for money to increase military spending, indicating RUF monitoring of NATO defense initiatives. Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming that the Head of Tatarstan materialized in Turkey during the conflict with Azerbaijan, implying potential disloyalty or complex geopolitical maneuverings, which could be an RUF information operation to sow distrust. TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are strategic and that some forces do not like this, indicating continued RUF attempts to control the narrative around the diplomatic spat. Kotsnews reports on "Trump's speaking silence and tanker explosions," implying a link between US political developments and UAF kinetic actions against Russian maritime assets, aiming to stir conspiracy theories. РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped, directly countering prevailing concerns about US aid. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video (030659Z JUL 25) with a political statement or speech; content is civilian in nature. Филолог в засаде provides a warning to Russian citizens against traveling to countries with "muddy-slippery politics," especially those "unfriendly," citing the Azerbaijan situation as an example of potential hostage-taking and transfer to Ukrainian special services. This is a clear information operation by RUF-aligned sources to discourage travel to certain countries and fuel distrust. (030717Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports that the US has changed priorities in arms supplies not only for Ukraine, but for other countries as well, citing CBS. (030720Z JUL 25) Rybar shares a photo message on British threats of sanctions against Kazakhstan. (030734Z JUL 25) WarGonzo reports on information regarding cessation of arms supplies for AFU. (030822Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages with caption "I will be your Russia Iqbal" implying narrative on Azerbaijan. (030805Z JUL 25) Kotsnews states "I don't understand the attacks on Zakharova regarding the situation with Azerbaijan." (030838Z JUL 25) Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." (030841Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on most reports; LOW for unverified ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ claim).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest potential heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Russia: North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" arrived in Moscow, bringing 3 days of rain and colder temperatures. Discernible earthquake in Kamchatka. TASS reports Putin joked about the coming winter, referring to summer weather. Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Tambov airport, as reported by TASS and ASTRA, likely due to weather or AD activity. Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Saratov airport. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reports a "Red" (High) level alert for UAV attack has been cancelled in the region. TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been lifted at Tambov airport. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. TASS reports flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport, likely due to UAV activity or weather. Новости Москвы confirms Day of the City in Moscow will be held on September 13-14, implying preparations for a large public event which could be affected by weather. NEW: The Governor of Bryansk Oblast (RUF) posted a message. (030659Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RUF Dispositions:
    • Donetsk: High-intensity offensive continues on Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Confirmed presence of units from the "Center" and "Vostok" groups, 30th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, and VDV (98th Guards Airborne Division confirmed in Chasiv Yar, 247th Air Assault Regiment). TASS reports the "Vostok" grouping destroyed 17 UAV control points and advanced in Zeleny Pol, Novod Rozv, and Vesele areas, claiming destruction of two APCs, two BMPs, one MT-LB, and one artillery piece. TASS video reports a Su-25 of the RUF VKS destroyed a UAF strongpoint in the "Vostok" zone, indicating continued air support. Colonelcassad reports Ka-52 helicopter operations engaging Ukrainian drones. MoD Russia shares a video titled "00:00 A T-90 tank crew of the Tsentr Group of Forces neutralised an an AFU machine-gun emplacement in Krasnoarmeysk direction." This confirms continued T-90 operations and targeting of UAF strongpoints in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group showing coordinated movement and firing while advancing. This indicates continued offensive operations and training on the "Vostok" axis. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video "Идем на Покровск: Результаты работы FPV группировки ЦЕНТР" (Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work), showing FPV drone strikes on an armored personnel carrier, a camera system on a tower, and an enemy shelter. New RUF video shows mortar fire and destruction of positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating continued use of such systems. TASS reports that Ivanovske paratroopers destroyed a UAF observation post in a residential building in Chasiv Yar, confirming continued VDV operations. Два майора provides a general morning summary for July 3, indicating continued RUF operational reporting. Zvиздец Мангусту reports elements of RUF's 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Combined Arms Army, have deeply penetrated the flank defending Pokrovsk and Novopavlovsk axes along the southern bank of the Vovcha river, capturing Zaporizhzhia and Yalta, with advanced units reaching Zirka – Poddubnoye. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Ivanovske paratroopers "liberated" Nikolaevka on the Chasiv Yar direction. NEW: Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles near Poltavka. (030804Z JUL 25) Kotsnews shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. (030805Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Zaporizhzhia: Kadyrovite (Chechen special forces) transfer to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area with 15 military trucks indicates a significant buildup for potential assault operations. Confidence: HIGH.
    • ASTRA reports five Su-34 fighter jets were damaged in a UAV attack on a military airfield in Volgograd Oblast on June 27. Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF video shows operators of RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroying a truck with a UAF anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports Russian air defense shot down three Storm Shadow missiles, three HIMARS projectiles, and 173 UAVs in the last 24 hours. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports Lukashenka's statement about "Oreshnik" deployment in Belarus by year-end. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports "High-Precision Systems" holding shipped a new batch of BMP-3s to the Ministry of Defense. Kotsnews shares a video "Новая партия боевых машин пехоты БМP-3 отправилась в войска." (A new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles went to the troops.), confirming these deliveries. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. (030746Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF is actively recruiting for the "African Corps," indicating continued intent to deploy foreign/mercenary forces, potentially in Africa or involving African personnel in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) is appealing for donations to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS to counter UAF drones and for combat missions, indicating a reliance on public funding for heavy equipment and a perceived need for enhanced counter-UAS capabilities beyond existing systems. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms receipt of Mavic 3 drones from public donations, indicating success in these fundraising efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a new video appeal for donations for "Paratroopers." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts "Good morning airborne family!" indicating continued morale boosting and daily reporting. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video with a caption "Сбор для Десантников🪂" (Collection for Paratroopers), confirming continued reliance on public funding for specific unit needs. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS video reports "Geran-2 UAV operators destroyed a temporary deployment point of the AFU in Yablonovka." This confirms continued RUF use of Shahed drones for tactical strikes on UAF positions. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Воин DV video shows drone strikes on UAF personnel and vehicles by the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, confirming continued RUF special forces operations utilizing drone assets for precision strikes and BDA. Воин DV shares photo messages with the caption "Гвардии сержант Мэргэн Будаев, старший разведчик-снайпер 14-й гв. отдельной бригады армейского спецназа России." The images display a Russian soldier in tactical tactical gear, including a helmet with NVG mount, tactical vest, and camouflage uniform, armed with a sniper rifle. The soldier's presence and equipment indicate participation in ongoing military operations. The content identifies the individual as a senior scout-sniper from the 14th Guards Separate Brigade of Army Special Forces. This confirms the presence and identified role of specialized RUF personnel in the conflict zone. Воин DV shares a new video with a generic numeric caption, likely indicating continued RUF drone footage from combat zones. Воин DV shares new video of a 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operator discovering and destroying a UAF vehicle on the Shakhtyorsk direction, implying continued RUF special forces activity. "Воин DV" shares a new video, captioned "Очередной эмоциональный рассказ от украинского военнопленного" (Another emotional story from a Ukrainian prisoner of war), showing a captured UAF soldier being used for propaganda. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Практика на порохе: учебный — только патрон. Остальное по-настоящему," showing military training or combat footage with soldiers and vehicles, including use of smoke grenades and potential explosives, suggesting continued combat readiness and training. Воин DV shares two new videos, captioned #ГероиСпецоперацииV, showing a Russian soldier discussing his combat experience. (030758Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law allowing stateless persons to serve by contract in the RF Armed Forces. This is a significant change in force generation policy. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ reports North Korea will send up to 30,000 additional troops to assist Russia, which would be a substantial external force contribution. Операция Z amplifies this report, stating "🇰🇵🤝🇷🇺КНДР намерена отправить в Россию еще 25-30 000 военных в ближайшие месяцы, - CNN" (North Korea intends to send another 25-30,000 troops to Russia in the coming months, - CNN). This indicates RUF-aligned sources are promoting this narrative. Воин DV posts a photo message "Делегация военной академии КНДР отправилась в Россию" (Delegation of the DPRK Military Academy went to Russia), indicating continued military cooperation. Confidence: HIGH.
    • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video shows a Russian soldier in uniform, potentially for propaganda or recruitment, aligning with force generation efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Воин DV video shows drone operators of the 5th Tank Guards Brigade conducting remote mining of a road in Voskresenka, confirming new RUF tactics for area denial. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Народная милиция ДНР photo message initiates a "Large summer collection of aid for children of Donbas and the SVO zone," indicating continued humanitarian/influence operations in occupied territories. Народная милиция ДНР video messages indicate ongoing volunteer efforts to provide humanitarian aid to personnel in the SVO zone and civilian populations in Donetsk and Rostov-on-Don, including medical equipment, PPE, and food. This reflects continued domestic support and logistical efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports the Russian MoD claims over 1,235 UAF military personnel lost in the last 24 hours. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:" with imagery implying a deceased enemy soldier. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:", implying successful UAF BDA on RUF losses. Confidence: LOW (self-serving RUF claim, no independent verification).
    • Два майора (RUF source) shares a "Good morning!" message, implying a positive morale state among some RUF-aligned personnel. Confidence: LOW (generic sentiment).
    • Басурин о главном reports that a Leopard 2A6 tank was captured by RUF forces. Confidence: MEDIUM (requires visual corroboration and context).
    • MoD Russia publishes photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of July 2, 2025, suggesting continued reporting on their tactical advancements. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Fighterbomber posts a photo of a "swan" (likely a Tu-160 bomber), which could be a propaganda image to boost morale or signal continued strategic air power. Confidence: MEDIUM.
    • Воин DV posts two video messages with the caption #ГероиСпецоперацииV, likely featuring Russian soldiers or showcasing their actions, reinforcing positive morale and propaganda efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video showing Russian snipers from the 49th Army operating in a forested area, using suppressed weapons and thermal/night vision, indicating continued specialized RUF operations. Два майора (RUF source) shares a video of a Russian military truck with a mounted anti-aircraft gun (likely ZU-23-2) in the Kherson direction, indicating continued use of older equipment and tactical adaptability in various sectors. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: Владислав Чернов — военнослужащий ВСУ, один из тех, кого силой забрали представители ТЦК, без надлежащей подготовки почти сразу отправили на линию боевого боевого соприкосновения. Его, как и многих других, использовали как живой ресурс, без сочувствия, без понимания и без малейшего шанса на возвращение. (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Chernov, who was supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) TASS reports Medvev claims over 210,000 contract soldiers joined Russian Armed Forces in first half of 2025. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts morale patches for "Wolfling 45" unit. Colonelcassad shares video of FSB detaining individuals in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for funding UAF. Colonelcassad shares video of Dmitry Medvedev discussing military recruitment numbers, indicating ongoing force generation efforts. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a video of new BMP-3 deliveries to the troops. MoD Russia's Grad MLRS crews of the 25th Combined Arms Army destroyed a UAV command post and manpower clusters of the AFU. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video showcasing a camouflaged tank (likely T-90M or T-72B3 series) in a training exercise, possibly promoting Rostec capabilities. This indicates continued RUF efforts to highlight military modernization and readiness. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Оперативна інформація станом на 16:00 02.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення" (Operational information as of 16:00 02.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion). This is a general update, suggesting no major, immediate shifts in the frontline or enemy disposition since the last report, but confirming ongoing engagements. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video with caption "Потеря связи." (Loss of connection), showing an aerial view of a damaged building and an explosion. This indicates continued RUF drone reconnaissance and targeting, possibly in the Donetsk region. The caption "Loss of connection" could refer to a UAF comms jam or a technical issue with the RUF drone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts "Семья, это артиллерия, бойцы работают на боевых машинах, которые поражают позиции противника на большом расстоянии." (Family, this is artillery, the fighters are working on combat vehicles that hit enemy positions that hit enemy positions at long range). This is a morale-boosting message highlighting RUF artillery capabilities. Басурин о главном shares a video encouraging subscription to his Telegram channel, which is a method for RUF-aligned sources to expand their information reach. Colonelcassad reports on the Russian MoD's summary of the "special military operation" as of July 2, 2025, which will provide RUF's official narrative of tactical successes. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video of multiple explosions, indicating RUF artillery or air strikes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining about "prison-like" living conditions, lack of food, and being confined, appealing for help. This suggests potential internal RUF morale and logistical issues, or could be a UAF PSYOP. НгП раZVедка shares a photo message "Хороший фотограф на вес золота." (A good photographer is worth his weight in gold), featuring a soldier in tactical gear, likely a morale-boosting post or an appreciation for combat documentation. Colonelcassad shares a video of a soldier engaging in a combat scenario with the caption "Стальной характер!" (Steel character!), a morale-boosting post. Старше Эдды shares photos from a meeting with officers in Rostov-on-Don, celebrating "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" and praising their service. This is a morale-boosting and propaganda effort to glorify military service and maintain support for the conflict. Fighterbomber shares a video of a "Звено штурмовиков" (flight of attack aircraft), likely Su-25s, indicating continued RUF close air support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video featuring a man identified as Shvartsman Aleksandr Анатольевич, a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, discussing contract service and conditions. This indicates UAF is leveraging POWs for counter-propaganda about RUF recruitment. Два майора shares a video with a man speaking about something "актуалочка" (current/relevant), likely propaganda or a morale message. Rybar posts two new videos of what appears to be RUF soldiers in a training environment, likely tank crews, with the caption "Учеба на чужих ошибках" (Learning from others' mistakes). This could imply RUF is adapting its training based on lessons learned from combat. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shares new video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group demonstrating coordinated movement and firing while advancing. This indicates RUF's continued focus on improving offensive armored tactics. MoD Russia shows a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing conscription practices, including taking everyone into the AFU, even from funerals, and medics and drivers being sent to consolidation troops. Воин DV operators of "Boоtur" BARS-2 unit destroyed a Ukrainian tank by drone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a summary for July 2. Colonelcassad posts a video of a civilian Lada being converted into a military "buggy," indicating grassroots vehicle modifications for combat use. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system being used on the front. Воин DV shares a video of a 37th Brigade guardsman carrying a wounded comrade, indicating combat operations. MoD Russia shows a photo update with "Top News Today," including a claim of destroying a Ukrainian Humvee and a Leopard 2A6 tank. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of the Ukrainian armored vehicle "Novator." Colonelcassad shares a video of an emotional speech from a captured Ukrainian serviceman. Воин DV posts video of drone operators destroying a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad shares video of a military vehicle being hit by a precision munition and catching fire. Fighterbomber shares a photo message "Доброе утро, страна!" which is a generic morale booster for Russian population. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a Russian soldier and claims he prevented an enemy DRG attack. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of RUF soldiers in wheelchairs seeking new volunteers, likely a morale booster/propaganda attempt highlighting 'resilience' while simultaneously showing the devastating human cost. NEW: Kotsnews shares a video on recruitment for the African Corps, including military training footage and equipment. (030700Z JUL 25) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of individuals on ATVs, possibly reconnaissance or patrol. (030701Z JUL 25) MoD Russia shares a video of an Orlan UAV aiming artillery at a target, potentially a Lancet loitering munition, including command post monitoring. (030711Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares a video of a civilian child being apprehended, context unclear (law enforcement or child welfare). (030713Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. (030746Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos about support fund for SVO. (030805Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos of soldiers in the field. (030805Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns posts a video "This is, undoubtedly, a success!" showing a child being apprehended near a vehicle. (030833Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "The stage of acceptance of the Russian occupier," showing a soldier in a wooded area. (030850Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Control Measures: RUF continues to use extensive electronic warfare (EW) to suppress UAF communications and drone operations, alongside layered air defense to protect its assets. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs (KAB/KAR) into Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued air support and UAF vulnerability to these weapons. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian artillerymen thanking volunteers for an EW system to counter FPV drones. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Перехват радиообмена 425 ОШП «Скала» в районе Красноармейска" (Interception of radio exchange of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in the Krasnoarmeysk area). This indicates active RUF SIGINT and the use of intercepted communications for intelligence or propaganda. Mash на Донбассе posts a video "Украинские дроны частенько отправляются обратно к своим бывшим владельцам." (Ukrainian drones often go back to their former owners.), implying successful RUF EW or drone capture tactics. ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk for two weeks prior to the attack, indicating active EW. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video questioning "ПВО? РЭБ? Анатолий?", suggesting a focus on air defense and EW. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system being used by RUF. Полиция Хабаровского края has posted messages related to the 89th anniversary of the State Traffic Inspectorate, indicating continued domestic policing and control measures. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation targeting migration law violations in Khabarovsk Krai. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages related to police activity, likely emphasizing domestic security and control. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. This implies RUF is actively conducting SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations and using drones for this purpose. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows a thermal imaging view from a drone and sounds of small arms fire, indicating RUF counter-UAS operations, likely targeting UAF drones. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края shares two videos related to a domestic scam, not directly military. (030700Z JUL 25) Moscow News posts photos of traffic police cars equipped with systems for identifying drivers without licenses. (030728Z JUL 25) TASS reports mobile internet will be restricted in Rostov Oblast due to UAV attacks. (030743Z JUL 25) TASS reports 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Samara and Belgorod Oblasts. (030835Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Ground Offensive: Demonstrated capability for sustained high-intensity ground assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, and in Chasiv Yar, utilizing combined arms tactics. Observed use of MT-LBs with infantry in assault, suggesting adaptation to high casualties among light assault groups. Confirmed use of Grad MLRS in the Pokrovsk direction. TASS video reports a Su-25 from the "Vostok" group destroyed a UAF strongpoint, demonstrating continued air-ground integration. Воин DV video shows remote mining by drone operators, indicating a new area denial capability. MoD Russia video shows BM-21 Grad MLRS crews destroying a UAV command post and manpower clusters of the AFU. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares video of a camouflaged tank, likely for training, suggesting continued focus on armored operations. MoD Russia video shows a T-90 tank crew neutralizing a UAF machine-gun emplacement in Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming continued effective armored operations. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares new video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group demonstrating coordinated movement and firing while advancing. This indicates RUF's continued focus on improving offensive armored tactics. DeepState reports successful drone strikes on RUF positions and BMPs in Kamyanske. Воин DV video shows RUF forces storming trenches and using FPV drones in Donbas. Colonelcassad shows a video of "Hunters for dronovodov" indicating RUF counter-UAS capabilities. Операция Z shares Russian propaganda footage from a drone's perspective, showcasing alleged attacks on Ukrainian vehicles and positions (truck, personnel carrier). Rybar shares video of nighttime military operations, indicating capability for night assaults. Colonelcassad's video of a civilian Lada converted into a military buggy indicates adaptable, low-cost vehicle modifications for tactical use. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a Ukrainian Humvee and Novator armored vehicle. Воин DV reports drone operators destroying a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad confirms another military vehicle destroyed by precision munition. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video "Идем на Покровск: Результаты работы FPV группировки ЦЕНТР" (Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work), showing FPV drone strikes on an armored personnel carrier, a camera camera system on a tower, and an enemy shelter. New RUF video shows drone-operated mortar system firing on targets in a village from Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting continued RUF use of such systems and continued destruction. TASS reports that Ivanovske paratroopers destroyed a UAF observation post in a residential building in Chasiv Yar, confirming continued VDV operations. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a Russian soldier and claims he prevented an enemy DRG attack. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides an immediate assessment message, suggesting active monitoring of operations. Операция Z claims "Valiant" forces breaking through towards Myrnohrad and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. TASS reports RUF has taken control of an AFU supply route in Krasnoarmiisk. Zvиздец Мангусту reports elements of RUF's 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Combined Arms Army, have deeply penetrated the flank defending Pokrovsk and Novopavlovsk axes along the southern bank of the Vovcha river, capturing Zaporizhzhia and Yalta, with advanced units reaching Zirka – Poddubnoye. Colonelcassad's video of Alexander Ershov, 80th Tank Regiment, details tactical maneuvers and the "liberation of Petrovskoye in DPR," including close-quarters combat, destruction of enemy vehicles, and flanking maneuvers, confirming effective assault tactics. WarGonzo displays RUF tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia map, indicating continued ground offensive. Воин DV shares video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Colonelcassad shares video of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion destroying UAF vehicles and armored vehicles. NEW: Воин DV FPV operators from the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to destroy enemy equipment near Oktyabrskoye, and shares tactical drone footage. (030700Z JUL 25) Два майора shares drone footage of military activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (030700Z JUL 25) Два майора shares drone footage of individuals moving across terrain in the Kherson direction. (030715Z JUL 25) Two Majors share video of damaged buildings and debris in Zaporizhzhia. (030730Z JUL 25) Rybar provides a morning summary for July 3. (030729Z JUL 25) Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles near Poltavka. (030804Z JUL 25) Kotsnews shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction, including Russian soldiers in combat gear, indicating ground forces presence. (030805Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "The stage of acceptance of the Russian occupier," showing a soldier in a wooded area. This implies RUF ground forces are still active and possibly encountering significant UAF resistance leading to demoralization. (030850Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Air-Dropped Ordnance: Continued extensive use of FABs with UMPK glide kits. UAF Air Force reports continued launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad reports "В Житомире ракетные прилеты." (Missile strikes in Zhytomyr). This confirms RUF missile strike capability against targets deep in Ukraine. Multiple sources confirm a large explosion in Zhytomyr from a probable RUF missile strike. Colonelcassad confirms an airstrike on a bridge over the Vovcha River near Iskra. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports renewed activity of RUF tactical aviation in eastern and north-eastern directions, indicating continued aerial threat. РБК-Україна reports Air Force has updated information on the movement of strike drones. New message from РБК-Україна reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launches guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued air-delivered threat. NEW: Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. (030745Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Mayak of Donetsk region, Kozatske of Kherson region. (030802Z JUL 25) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community in Synelnykivskyi district with a KAB." (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • UAV Operations: Highly developed and integrated UAV capabilities for ISR, FPV strikes, and deep strikes. Deployment of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV with a dual machine gun gun mount on the Pokrovsk direction. Claimed increased production of Geranium drones. Colonelcassad video shows Ka-52 helicopter engaging and shooting down Ukrainian fixed-wing drones with Igla-V missiles, suggesting an anti-drone air-to-air capability. Budanov (HUR) indicates that Russia has a second developer of CRPA antennas for Shaheds, implying redundancy in their drone development. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian artillerymen receiving an EW system, indicating adaptive procurement of counter-drone technology from civilian sources. Воин DV shares video from the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade showing a soldier shooting down an enemy drone with small arms fire, indicating a tactical adaptation to counter-UAS roles at close range. Colonelcassad reports Russian naval forces successfully destroying enemy BECs and drones in the Black Sea, indicating adaptive counter-drone capabilities. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows explosion and damaged building from an aerial view, suggesting continued effective RUF drone targeting capabilities. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF ISR efforts and potential for AD response. Kadyrov_95 video shows Akhmat Special Forces using drones for strikes. Воин DV video shows FPV drone usage in trench assaults. Colonelcassad's "Hunters for dronovodov" video implies active counter-drone units. Два майора's video shows aerial footage with multiple explosions, indicating continued RUF drone ISR and targeting. Воин DV drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system being used on the front. Николаевский Ванёк reports on the movement of 5 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) towards Odesa/Lymanka and their subsequent downing by AD. Colonelcassad reports Ussuriysk paratroopers' UAV operators destroyed a UAF strongpoint with personnel in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued adaptation of drone usage for infantry support and direct strikes. Операция Z shares new videos showing alleged attacks on Lipetsk, attributed to Ukraine, indicating continued and perhaps intensified deep strike UAV operations. Colonelcassad shares a video "Идем на Покровск: Результаты работы FPV группировки ЦЕНТР" (Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work), showing FPV drone strikes on an armored personnel carrier, a camera system on a tower, and an enemy shelter. Igor Artamonov also reports a drone strike on a building in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast. New RUF video shows drone-operated mortar system firing on targets in a village from Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting continued RUF use of such systems and continued destruction. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV, injuring 4. Igor Artamonov reports a fire caused by a drone falling on a parking lot of an enterprise in Yelets, which has been localized with no casualties reported. Igor Artamonov also reports continued red alert for drone attack in Yelets and Yelets district. Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video messages of drone activity over Russia, with explosions reported in Lipetsk and Voronezh Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares video reporting an attack on the "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. ASTRA shares new videos of Lipetsk night attacks. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. This implies RUF is actively conducting SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations and using drones for this purpose. Операция Z's new video shows RUF artillerymen from the south of Donetsk focused on countering enemy drones and needing thermal imagers for night operations, highlighting continued RUF focus on counter-UAS capabilities. Воин DV reports a 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operator discovered and destroyed a UAF vehicle on the Shakhtyorsk direction. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows effective counter-drone activity by the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, 70th Motor Rifle Division. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 52 drones were launched by RUF, with 40 neutralized, indicating continued high volume of drone attacks. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 69 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian AD overnight. Воин DV shares video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk oblasts. STERNENKO reports intentions to purchase more Shahed interceptors. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava, claiming "Geraniums" hit a TCC building, indicative of RUF's continued deep strike drone capabilities against military and administrative targets. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos of shrapnel from RUF drones found by civilians, indicating the use of fragmentation warheads and civilian impact. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attack on Lomakovka, Starodubsky municipal district, indicating continued UAF cross-border strikes. Colonelcassad shares a video showing an explosion over Poltava, which is framed as an RUF "Geranium" strike on a TCC building, reinforcing the narrative of RUF drone effectiveness. Colonelcassad shares another video from Poltava, emphasizing the aerial aspect of the strike, implying advanced RUF drone capabilities. NEW: Воин DV FPV operators from the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to destroy enemy equipment near Oktyabrskoye, and shares tactical drone footage. (030700Z JUL 25) MoD Russia shares a video of an Orlan UAV aiming artillery at a target. (030711Z JUL 25) Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030706Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030715Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC. (030719Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. (030723Z JUL 25) Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. (030730Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. (030735Z JUL 25) Air Force reports significant activity of various enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030750Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. (030822Z JUL 25) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of drone operators destroying RUF personnel and vehicles in Donetsk Oblast. (030814Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • EW: Sophisticated and widespread EW capabilities, significantly impacting UAF C2 and ISR. Mash на Донбассе posts a video "Украинские дроны частенько отправляются обратно к своим бывшим владельцам." (Ukrainian drones often go back to their former owners.), implying successful RUF EW or drone capture tactics. Colonelcassad's "Hunters for dronovodov" video implies active RUF counter-drone efforts including EW. ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk prior to the attack, indicating a defensive adaptation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video questioning "ПВО? РЭБ? Анатолий?", suggesting a focus on air defense and EW. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system being used on the front. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows effective counter-drone activity by the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, 70th Motor Rifle Division. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Precision Strikes: Demonstrated capability for long-range precision strikes against critical infrastructure and military targets across Ukraine. TASS reports Russian MoD claims striking a military-industrial complex enterprise, UAV assembly workshops, and storage sites. Colonelcassad reports on the strike on a military-industrial complex enterprise, UAV assembly workshops, and storage sites. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims a missile strike on an industrial zone in Kramatorsk on June 28 liquidated UAF Colonel Dmytro Vorona. This indicates continued RUF HVT targeting capability. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage, followed by friendly fire targeting and successful destruction, implying successful RUF precision strikes against UAF artillery. Colonelcassad reports "В Житомире ракетные прилеты." (Missile strikes in Zhytomyr). This confirms RUF's ability to conduct precision strikes deep within Ukrainian territory. New messages corroborate a strong explosion in Zhytomyr, indicating another successful UAF deep strike (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС). ASTRA and STERNENKO confirm damage to Izhevsk Kupol plant. Alex Parker Returns claims the Zhytomyr strike was on a warehouse with weaponry. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms the Zhytomyr epicenter was not a gas station, implying a more significant target. ASTRA reports a SOCAR gas station was damaged with casualties near Zhytomyr. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА confirms the Zhytomyr explosion. MoD Russia UAV operators destroyed a MaxxPro and a minibus with manpower. Explosions are reported in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, with multiple UAF and RUF sources reporting on a potential ammunition depot strike, and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claiming the target was an ammunition depot for AD, MLRS, and barrel artillery. Colonelcassad also reports a hit on a field ammunition depot near Khartsyzk. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Операция Z claims the Zhytomyr explosion was at a Polish factory (Buczynski) and caused widespread destruction. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, showing smoke and damaged areas, confirming UAF deep strike capabilities. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath of the attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava, claiming "Geraniums" hit a TCC building, indicative of RUF's continued deep strike capabilities against military and administrative targets. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike with a video of a large smoke plume, stating "Geraniums" hit a "local lair of man-catchers" (referring to TCC). Colonelcassad shares another video from Poltava, emphasizing the aerial aspect of the strike, implying advanced RUF precision strike capabilities. NEW: Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030706Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030715Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC. (030719Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC, causing a fire. (030720Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries from the Poltava TCC strike, including civilians. (030721Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. (030723Z JUL 25) Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. (030730Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. (030735Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030741Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030743Z JUL 25) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded after hits on TCC and nearby buildings in Poltava. (030758Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots near Khartsyzk. (030801Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath of strike on Poltava. (030801Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Special Forces: Active Spetsnaz operations targeting UAF logistics and C2. Kotsnews reports destruction of two RUF DRGs in Gornal, implying active RUF reconnaissance/sabotage in border areas. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows Russian snipers from the 49th Army operating, indicating continued specialized tactical capabilities. РБК-Україна shares video of SFO soldiers showing a successful raid near the border, including a captured soldier, indicating RUF special forces presence in border areas and potential for engaging UAF SFO. New messages from Воин DV confirm special forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade) operations in conjunction with motorized rifle brigades (37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade) to detect and destroy UAF UAV control points, demonstrating coordinated RUF Spetsnaz and drone operations. Kadyrov_95 shows Akhmat Special Forces 'Baty' Group conducting drone strikes on Ukrainian dugouts. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber" in Naberezhnye Chelny. Два майора shares video of OMON detaining an individual, indicating internal security operations. TASS reports on the Crocus City Hall terrorists being under influence of drugs during the attack, which RUF may try to exploit to discredit terrorists or provide an explanation. Воин DV shares photo messages with the caption "Гвардии сержант Мэргэн Будаев, старший разведчик-снайпер 14-й гв. отдельной бригады армейского спецназа России." The images display a Russian soldier in tactical tactical gear, armed with a sniper rifle, and appears to be in a field or wooded environment. The content identifies the individual as a senior scout-sniper from the 14th Guards Separate Brigade of Army Special Forces. The visible equipment, including the sniper rifle, suggests continued focus on specialized infantry capabilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a Russian soldier and claims he prevented an enemy DRG attack. Воин DV shares new video of a 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operator discovering and destroying a UAF vehicle on the Shakhtyorsk direction, implying continued RUF special forces activity. TASS reports the FSB detained a 23-year-old Russian woman in St. Petersburg who was preparing a terrorist attack on orders from Kyiv, implying continued RUF counter-terrorist operations against alleged UAF agents within Russia. ASTRA also confirms this detention. NEW: Север.Реалии reports Petersburg police detained a woman suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. (030808Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns posts a video "This is, undoubtedly, a success!" showing a child being apprehended near a vehicle. (030833Z JUL 25) This video, shared by an RUF-aligned source, may depict an RUF security operation against perceived threats or dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Weapon Systems: Stated intent to deploy "Oreshnik" (new weapon system) in Belarus by year-end. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Mine Clearance: Demonstrated capability to use robotic complexes (Uran-6) for mine clearance in border areas. Colonelcassad reports continued mine clearance in Sudzha border area. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Armored Vehicle Deliveries: "High-Precision Systems" (Rostec subsidiary) has shipped a new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to the MoD. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a video confirming these deliveries. Kotsnews shares a video "Новая партия боевых машин пехоты БМP-3 отправилась в войска." (A new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles went to the troops.), confirming these deliveries. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. (030746Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Capability (African Corps Recruitment): Recruitment for the "African Corps" signals RUF's intent to diversify its combat personnel. NEW: Kotsnews shares two videos of recruitment for the African Corps, including military training footage and equipment. (030700Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Capability (Publicly Funded Grad MLRS): The appeal for funds to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS suggests a capability gap being addressed through public funding. Confidence: HIGH.
    • ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ reports North Korea will send up to 30,000 additional troops, which, if materialized, significantly boosts RUF's personnel capabilities. Операция Z amplifies this report from CNN. Воин DV posts about a DPRK military academy delegation visiting Russia, indicating continued military-technical cooperation. Два майора reports Western experts suggest 20,000 troops is a more realistic figure for DPRK deployment. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Capability (Captured Western Equipment): Claims of capturing a Leopard 2A6 tank, if verified, could indicate RUF's intent to exploit Western equipment for intelligence purposes or propaganda. MoD Russia shows a daily news update including claims of destroying a Ukrainian Humvee and a Leopard 2A6 tank. Confidence: MEDIUM.
    • TASS reports Medvev claims over 210,000 contract soldiers joined Russian Armed Forces in first half of 2025, indicating significant force generation capability. Kotsnews reports Medvedev's statement. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Colonelcassad reports Russian Navy's success in destroying several enemy BEC (unmanned surface vessels) in the Black Sea and shooting down a batch of Ukrainian drones over Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Internal Security Operations: Mash na Donbashe shares a video showing a significant cache of weapons (drugs, automatic rifle, TNT, grenades) found by police in Korsun, DNR. This indicates ongoing internal security operations to disarm the population in occupied territories. TASS reports detonation of powder in Chelyabinsk, indicating ongoing domestic security incidents related to explosives. ASTRA reports arrests of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg in a murder case, indicating domestic law enforcement operations. ASTRA also reports three schoolchildren held in Grozny, indicating internal security enforcement. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber" in Naberezhnye Chelny. Два майора shares video of OMON detaining an individual, indicating internal security operations. Colonelcassad reports a conviction in the Kherson Oblast Court for a Russian citizen transferring information to Ukrainian special services. TASS reports on the preparation of Crocus City Hall terrorists in Turkey and Afghanistan. Полиция Хабаровского края posts an image related to traffic police anniversary, implying continued domestic policing and order enforcement. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation targeting migration law violations in Khabarovsk Krai. The video depicts police operations at construction sites and against individuals suspected of migration law violations. This confirms an ongoing focus on internal security and control over migrant populations, which can be leveraged for various internal and external messaging purposes. TASS reports the arrest of the deputy head of Roshydromet, Natalia Radkova, in a large-scale fraud case, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages related to police activity, reinforcing domestic security focus. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports "A wave of mass arrests swept through Russia," which indicates heightened internal security measures. TASS reports a fire at a Tambov Oblast enterprise killed 3 and injured 3. TASS reports a patient attacked medical staff with a knife in Irkutsk. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into tax evasion by a group of individuals totaling UAH 29 million, indicating internal legal processes within Ukraine, which could be framed by RUF as internal instability. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края shares two videos related to a domestic scam, not directly military. (030700Z JUL 25) TASS reports the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation is demanding the nationalization of the "Yuzhuralzoloto" company belonging to billionaire Konstantin Strukov. (030706Z JUL 25) Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photo messages on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. (030711Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." (030711Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares a video of a child being apprehended, context unclear (law enforcement or child welfare). (030713Z JUL 25) TASS reports a man arrested for attacking polyclinic staff, claiming he wanted to kill the doctor. (030732Z JUL 25) BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. (030729Z JUL 25) TASS reports property of head of construction supervision department of MoD Kozhevnikov has been arrested. (030807Z JUL 25) ASTRA shares a photo message that the Prosecutor General's Office is demanding nationalization of a gold company. (030829Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • SIGINT/EW Capabilities: Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Перехват радиообмена 425 ОШП «Скала» в районе Красноармейска" (Interception of radio exchange of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in the Krasnoarmeysk area). This indicates RUF possesses capabilities for intercepting UAF tactical communications. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Domestic Order/Security Enforcement: ASTRA posts about searches at the head of the Ingushetia Interior Ministry and suspicion of embezzlement. This indicates internal law enforcement capability and efforts to address corruption. TASS reports a new court arrest in the Ural murders case (Kamal Safarov), indicating continued domestic law enforcement capability. ASTRA reports 7th and 8th Azerbaijani figure arrested in Yekaterinburg for murders, confirming ongoing domestic security operations. TASS reports on the former head of Piket GC making a pre-trial agreement with investigators in the low-quality body armor case, indicating ongoing internal investigations related to military supplies. NEW: Moscow News posts photos of traffic police cars equipped with systems for identifying drivers without licenses. (030728Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Ammunition Production in Venezuela: Colonelcassad reports Rostec launched a factory for Kalashnikov ammunition in Venezuela, indicating RUF is diversifying its ammunition supply chain and expanding military-industrial cooperation globally. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Intentions:
    • Territorial Control: Primary intention remains the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar. New claims of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dachne, Petrovskoye, Yalta, Zirka-Poddubnoe) indicate an intent to broaden the offensive beyond the traditional Donbas axes. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Strategic Depth: Establishment of "buffer zones" in border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv). Confidence: HIGH.
    • Infrastructure Degradation: Continued degradation of Ukraine's military-industrial complex, energy infrastructure, and logistics. Colonelcassad reports RUF strikes on enterprise of the military-industrial complex, UAV assembly workshops, storage sites, ammunition and military-technical property depots, and temporary deployment points of AFU formations and foreign mercenaries in 139 areas. ASTRA confirming the damage to Izhevsk's Kupol plant (UAV production) indicates RUF's intent to target military-industrial targets. The Zhytomyr strike, whether on a gas station or a warehouse/ammunition depot, reinforces the intent to strike logistics/infrastructure targets. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava, claiming "Geraniums" hit a TCC building, indicative of RUF's continued intent to target military and administrative infrastructure. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike with a video of a large smoke plume, stating "Geraniums" hit a "local lair of man-catchers" (referring to TCC). NEW: Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030706Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030715Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC with fatalities and injuries. (030719Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC, causing a fire. (030720Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries from the Poltava TCC strike, including civilians. (030721Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. (030723Z JUL 25) Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. (030730Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. (030735Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030741Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030743Z JUL 25) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded after hits on TCC and nearby buildings in Poltava. (030758Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots near Khartsyzk. (030801Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath of strike on Poltava. (030801Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Information Dominance: Maintain and escalate information warfare to shape narratives, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. TASS reports the Washington Post stating Ukrainian officials were "caught off guard" by the US aid suspension, indicating RUF intent to amplify perceived disarray within Ukraine regarding aid. ASTRA's report on alleged torture of a Ukrainian serviceman (burnt inscription "Glory to Russia") is a clear psychological operation (PSYOP) likely intended to intimidate and demoralize UAF personnel and sow fear among the Ukrainian populace. Операция Z's video claiming a Slovak ex-Minister of Defense "fled to Canada" to avoid accountability for ammunition provided to UAF is an information operation aimed at discrediting foreign support for Ukraine. TASS reports Putin supports dialogue even with those with significant disagreements, aiming to project Russia's diplomatic openness while maintaining its interests. Операция Z highlights Kyiv summoning a US diplomat over the arms supply halt, emphasizing perceived Ukrainian weakness and US unreliability. WarGonzo reports on a monument to "Motorola" in Ukhta, glorifying separatist figures. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statement that the prospect of creating a NATO-like military organization based on the EU would be a threat to Russia, indicating intent to deter deeper European military integration. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, an RUF source, discusses the US suspension of arms supplies to Ukraine, presenting it as either a US attempt to pressure Kyiv into negotiations or to compel EU countries to purchase more US weapons, framing it as a win-win for the US. This aims to discredit the sincerity of US aid. Kotsnews is promoting a boycott of Azerbaijani products, mirroring a previous campaign against Latvian goods, indicating an intent to leverage economic pressure for political goals related to ongoing diplomatic tensions. Alex Parker Returns reports Peskov stating that Moscow sees Kyiv attempting to imbalance Russia-Azerbaijan relations and provoke tension, further indicating RUF intent to deflect blame and control narratives related to diplomatic disputes. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: Владислав Чернов — военнослужащий ВСУ, один из тех, кого силой забрали представители ТЦК, без надлежащей подготовки почти сразу отправили на линию боевого боевого соприкосновения. Его, как и многих других, использовали как живой ресурс, без сочувствия, без понимания и без малейшего шанса на возвращение. (This message directly attempts to undermine Ukrainian morale and recruitment by highlighting alleged forced conscription and lack of training, aiming to portray the Ukrainian military as uncaring of its personnel. This is a clear PSYOP targeting UAF recruitment and public support.) Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying Medvedev's silence on Azerbaijan tensions, likely intended to generate speculation or criticism. Операция Z reports The Washington Post analysis of Russian activation of offensive in Donetsk and Sumy, framed to reinforce narrative of successful Russian offensives. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message claiming US is leaving the war, directly amplifying a narrative of abandonment. Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages claiming Zelensky stripped citizenship from Metropolitan Onufriy, framed as "military dictator" attacking Orthodoxy. This is a deliberate RUF attempt to sow religious discord and delegitimize Ukrainian leadership. Colonelcassad also shares a similar sentiment. Операция Z reports The New York Times as stating that the cessation of US arms supplies is a clear signal that the United States is beginning to withdraw from the war in Ukraine. Kotsnews reports "СМИ: К сентябрю у Украины закончится американское оружие" (Media: Ukraine will run out of American weapons by September). This is a direct information operation to demoralize Ukraine and pressure Western allies. TASS reports "Приостановка поставок оружия США Киеву указывает на выход Вашингона из конфликта, пишет NYT." (Suspension of US arms supplies to Kyiv indicates Washington's withdrawal from the conflict, NYT writes). This is RUF amplification of Western media reports to support their narrative of Western abandonment. Операция Z reports "Российского посла в Баку вызвали в МИД Азербайджана, ему выражен протест в связи с "недружественными действиями" и "шагами российской стороны, подрывающие отношениям между двумя странами"." (Russian ambassador to Baku summoned to Azerbaijani MFA, protest expressed due to "unfriendly actions" and "steps by the Russian side undermining relations between the two countries"). This confirms RUF's intent to highlight and possibly exploit diplomatic tensions. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's briefing statements, which include ongoing diplomatic issues with Azerbaijan and concerns over the treatment of Russian citizens. This reinforces RUF's intent to use these issues for diplomatic pressure and internal narrative. ASTRA reports "Зеленский лишил гражданства Украины главы Украинской православной церкви Московского патриархата Онуфрий" (Zelensky stripped Ukrainian citizenship from the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate Onufriy). This is a highly polarizing action that RUF will exploit to sow religious and political discord within Ukraine and justify its "protection" narrative. НгП раZVедка amplifies the NYT report that the US is leaving the conflict, a core RUF information operation. Colonelcassad amplifies complaints from Russians in Azerbaijan, fueling the diplomatic dispute narrative. Военкор Котенок reports "Россияне в Азербайджане, в т.ч. туристы, жалуются на насилие, визиты неизвестных лиц, представляющихся полицией, прессинг, задержания и т.д." (Russians in Azerbaijan, including tourists, complain about violence, visits from unknown persons posing as police, pressure, detentions, etc.). This is a clear attempt to create a narrative of Azerbaijani hostility towards Russians, justifying RUF's diplomatic stance. Операция Z shares a photo message containing a highly derogatory reference to an alleged speechwriter for Zelensky, aiming to discredit and dehumanize Ukrainian leadership. TASS reports that a Ukrainian blogger, Vlad Bumaga, was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. This is an RUF information operation to discredit Ukrainian civil society efforts against pro-Russian elements. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "🤔🇺🇦Как вяжутся логически выражения "это война" и "в результате подлого удара"???" (🤔🇺🇦How do the expressions "this is war" and "as a result of a cowardly blow" logically combine???). This appears to be an RUF-aligned source attempting to create a false dichotomy or criticize Ukrainian rhetoric as inconsistent, as part of an ongoing information operation. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "😎🇺🇦русня, та ладно вам скулить, у вас флота всё равно нет уже, нахрена вам командующий?)" (😎🇺🇦Russians, come on, stop whining, you don't have a fleet anyway, why do you need a commander?). This is a clear attempt to mock and demoralize RUF, especially following the reports of a Black Sea Fleet Commander being liquidated, indicating UAF intent to exploit perceived RUF vulnerabilities. TASS posts new videos of a Russian singer (Shaman) filming a music video for "Intervision-25", signaling intent to use cultural events for morale boosting and national identity. Alex Parker Returns reports a quote from Marianna Bezuhla, a Ukrainian MP, stating "The USA is no longer an ally of Ukraine," which is a clear RUF information operation to sow discord. Colonelcassad reports NATO Secretary General supported the suspension of US arms supplies, implying Western disunity. Rybar's "Reputation over Peace" message likely pertains to this information operation. TASS reports the CIA acknowledging its 2016 election interference assessment may have been politically motivated. Colonelcassad reports the CIA officially disavowed accusations against Russia concerning the 2016 US election interference. Rybar shares a video on "Price of normalization of relations," which can be interpreted as a demand for concessions from the West. Two majors share an image of a "Crisis of Russia and Azerbaijan," indicating continued intent to frame this as an ongoing issue. ASTRA reports Vlad Bumaga added to "Myrotvorets," which RUF will exploit to portray Ukraine as repressive. Операция Z pushes the narrative of a "genocide" by OUN and UPA against Poles, fueling historical revisionism and discord. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС (citing NYT) reports absence of new US sanctions allowed Russia to resume supply of military goods. TASS reports that the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. This aims to mitigate the surprise/damage control narrative from UAF. TASS reports Orban believes Zelensky still has time to turn towards peace in his policy. Alex Parker Returns posts a video mocking Zelensky, calling him a "military dictator" and using the metro in Kryvyi Rih as a sarcastic example of his priorities compared to Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares a photo message about the flow chart "Why the war is not ending? Because they profit from it." TASS reports SBU adding Russian artists and politicians to its розыск database, which RUF can use for propaganda. TASS reports American guards in Gaza opening fire on Palestinians, which RUF can use to highlight alleged Western human rights abuses. Операция Z shares new videos showing alleged attacks on Lipetsk, attributed to Ukraine. ASTRA shares a video of Lipetsk residents reporting numerous explosions. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. TASS reports the Kiev leadership expects European countries to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US, citing Politico. Rybar reports on the Middle East crisis, which will be leveraged to highlight regional instability not tied to Ukraine. TASS reports Qatar's offer to mediate will be used by RUF to project diplomatic openness. Басурин о главном shares a historical "Pravda" newspaper from 1941, implying a long-term historical narrative and justification for current actions. Басурин о главном video states "For the US and the West, every meter liberated by the Russian army is painful," aiming to justify Russian actions and mock Western reaction. Басурин о главном also states the West will continue to build "Anti-Russia," implying a long-term struggle. Операция Z reports that Budanov has effectively admitted to the loss of Ukrainian territories, which is an RUF information operation to demoralize Ukraine. ASTRA shares a political cartoon from Hungary featuring Zelenskyy, implying foreign interference in Ukrainian information space. Operational Z reports a Pentagon spokesperson discussing the US decision on arms supplies to Ukraine, emphasizing the decision-making process by the President and Secretary. The Economist reports Ukraine faces "reckoning" due to the cessation of US arms supplies, which RUF will certainly amplify to demoralize Ukraine and highlight the supposed unsustainability of Western aid. Rybar shares a photo message discussing how the British government is looking for money to increase military spending, indicating RUF monitoring of NATO defense initiatives. Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming that the Head of Tatarstan materialized in Turkey during the conflict with Azerbaijan, implying potential disloyalty or complex geopolitical maneuverings, which could be an RUF information operation to sow distrust. TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are strategic and that some forces do not like this, indicating continued RUF attempts to control the narrative around the diplomatic spat. Kotsnews reports on "Trump's speaking silence and tanker explosions," implying a link between US political developments and UAF kinetic actions against Russian maritime assets, aiming to stir conspiracy theories. РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped, directly countering prevailing concerns about US aid. NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes photos and videos (030700Z JUL 25) with a general address to subscribers. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a political cartoon regarding Ursula von der Leyen's confidence vote in the European Parliament, indicating RUF monitoring and commentary on European politics. (030704Z JUL 25) Филолог в засаде provides a warning to Russian citizens against traveling to countries with "muddy-slippery politics," especially those "unfriendly," citing the Azerbaijan situation. (030717Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports that the US has changed priorities in arms supplies not only for Ukraine, but for other countries as well, citing CBS. (030720Z JUL 25) Rybar shares a photo message on British threats of sanctions against Kazakhstan. (030734Z JUL 25) WarGonzo reports on information regarding cessation of arms supplies for AFU. (030822Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages with caption "I will be your Russia Iqbal" implying narrative on Azerbaijan. (030805Z JUL 25) Kotsnews states "I don't understand the attacks on Zakharova regarding the situation with Azerbaijan." (030838Z JUL 25) Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." (030841Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares political humor message with text "Now about the situation on the couch front of "Independent". (030818Z JUL 25) Операция Z shares photo message about Ursula von der Leyen being threatened with a vote of no confidence. (030819Z JUL 25) STERNENKO shares photo message on Politico reporting Pentagon decision to suspend arms supply to Ukraine was unexpected. (030820Z JUL 25) TASS reports Diogo Jota, football player, died in a car accident. (030820Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on most reports; LOW for unverified ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ claim).
    • Internal Security: Continued efforts to suppress internal dissent and maintain control over occupied territories and the Russian population. TASS reports on the embezzlement case in Kaliningrad, likely intended to project internal anti-corruption efforts. Север.Реалии reports Lukashenka pardoned 16 people, including those convicted of "extremist" articles, potentially a move to ease internal tensions or for selective political purposes. TASS reports the arrest of a former deputy head of Khimki for bribery, reinforcing the narrative of internal anti-corruption. Colonelcassad shares video of FSB detaining individuals in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for funding UAF, reinforcing state security narratives. TASS reports that the motive for the murders attributed to Azerbaijanis detained in Yekaterinburg was the division of spheres of influence in business, as clarified by the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation. This indicates internal security focus and potentially an attempt to control the narrative around ethno-criminal activity. ASTRA reports eight Russians were arrested in Baku on charges of criminal group involvement and drug trafficking, indicating a bilateral law enforcement focus. ASTRA posts "Шестерым задержанным в Екатеринбурге азербайджанца предъявлены обвинения в убийстве и покушении" (Six Azerbaijanis detained in Yekaterinburg charged with murder and attempted murder). ТАСС reports "Один из задержанных в Екатеринбурге по делу об убийствах изобличил других фигурантов, сообщила ТАСС Петренко." (One of the detainees in Yekaterinburg in the murder case exposed other figures, TASS reports Petrenko). Военкор Котенок and Операция Z amplify these reports of charges against an Azerbaijani organized criminal group (OPG) in Yekaterinburg. These reports reflect RUF's intent to control the narrative around domestic crime, especially when it involves ethnic groups, potentially for internal political messaging or to inflame public sentiment against Azerbaijan amidst diplomatic tensions. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on an IT specialist being forcibly conscripted despite a court ruling, indicating RUF's intent to pursue force generation regardless of legal challenges or public sentiment. TASS reports "По делу о поставке некачественных бронежилетов в ВС РФ арестованы доли в фирмах, земля и счета связанных с главой ГК "Пикет" людей, передает корреспондент ТАСС." (In the case of supplying low-quality body armor to the Russian Armed Forces, shares in firms, land, and accounts of people connected with the head of "Piket" Group of Companies have been arrested, TASS correspondent reports). This demonstrates ongoing internal security efforts against corruption within the military-industrial complex. ASTRA posts about searches at the head of the Ingushetia Interior Ministry for embezzlement, reinforcing domestic anti-corruption efforts. Alex Parker Returns posts a cryptic message about "Коллективная ответственность за преступления режима. C кого-то нужно начинать. Отсюда и." (Collective responsibility for the regime's crimes. Someone has to start. Hence...). This could indicate internal dissent within Russia. Операция Z reports on the Moscow explosion, which will likely heighten public anxiety about internal security. TASS reports the mother of a Russian detained in Baku considers charges absurd, indicating an attempt to manage public concern over citizens abroad. TASS reports a new court arrest in the Ural murders case (Kamal Safarov), reinforcing RUF's intent to demonstrate effective domestic law enforcement. TASS reports on a powder box detonation in Chelyabinsk, and ASTRA reports arrests in Yekaterinburg and Grozny, indicating ongoing internal security issues and their public framing. Новости Москвы reports on increasing utilization fees for powerful cars, a domestic economic policy that may impact public sentiment. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber" in Naberezhnye Chelny. Два майора shares video of OMON detaining an individual, indicating internal security operations. Colonelcassad reports a conviction in the Kherson Oblast Court for a Russian citizen transferring information to Ukrainian special services. TASS reports on the preparation of Crocus City Hall terrorists in Turkey and Afghanistan. Полиция Хабаровского края posts an image related to traffic police anniversary, aimed at projecting internal stability and law enforcement presence. TASS reports the Crocus City Hall terrorists were under the influence of drugs during the attack, which can be used to control the narrative or discredit the attackers. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation targeting migration law violations in Khabarovsk Krai. The video depicts police operations at construction sites and against individuals. This confirms a continued focus on internal security and control over migrant populations, which can be leveraged for various internal and external messaging purposes. TASS reports the arrest of the deputy head of Roshydromet, Natalia Radkova, in a large-scale fraud case, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages of police activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports "A wave of mass arrests swept through Russia," indicating heightened internal security measures. TASS reports a fire at a Tambov Oblast enterprise killed 3 and injured 3. TASS reports a patient attacked medical staff with a knife in Irkutsk. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into tax evasion by a group of individuals totaling UAH 29 million, indicating internal legal processes within Ukraine, which could be framed by RUF as internal instability. TASS reports the FSB detained a 23-year-old Russian woman in St. Petersburg who was preparing a terrorist attack on orders from Kyiv, indicating continued RUF counter-terrorist operations against alleged UAF agents within Russia. ASTRA also confirms this detention. NEW: TASS reports the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation is demanding the nationalization of the "Yuzhuralzoloto" company belonging to billionaire Konstantin Strukov. (030706Z JUL 25) ASTRA reports three killed and three injured in a fire at an enterprise in Tambov Oblast, citing the acting governor. (030711Z JUL 25) Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photo messages on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. (030711Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." (030711Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares a video of a civilian child being apprehended, context unclear (law enforcement or child welfare). (030713Z JUL 25) TASS reports a man arrested for attacking polyclinic staff, claiming he wanted to kill the doctor. (030732Z JUL 25) BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. (030729Z JUL 25) TASS reports property of head of construction supervision department of MoD Kozhevnikov has been arrested. (030807Z JUL 25) ASTRA shares a photo message that the Prosecutor General's Office is demanding nationalization of a gold company. (030829Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Regional Influence: Assert dominance in post-Soviet space, actively counter Western influence, and maintain strategic partnerships. Colonelcassad's discussion on the probability of NATO bases in Armenia indicates RUF's focus on countering Western influence in its perceived sphere of influence. Стрелков Игорь Иванович's post about Azerbaijan being a "probable military adversary" for Russia signals ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Caucasus, relevant to Russia's broader regional posture. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statement that the prospect of creating a NATO-like military organization based on the EU would be a threat to Russia, indicating intent to deter deeper European military integration. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statement on the need for Russian citizens in Azerbaijan to consider the current situation, indicative of diplomatic tensions or concerns related to the regional security environment. Alex Parker Returns reports a strong protest was made to the Azerbaijani Ambassador regarding the deliberate dismantling of Russian-Azerbaijan relations and provoke tension, further indicating RUF intent to deflect blame and control narratives related to diplomatic disputes. TASS reports no planned phone call between Putin and Aliyev, indicating a deliberate diplomatic stance concerning Azerbaijan. Alex Parker Returns (citing Zakharova) is calling on Baku to return relations to a strategic alliance level, reinforcing Moscow's intent to pressure Azerbaijan back into alignment. Colonelcassad reports that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has stated that Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan has still not been granted the opportunity to meet with a consul. Операция Z (RUF source) also highlights Zakharova's statement on the denial of consular access for Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan, indicating coordinated diplomatic messaging. TASS reports Putin thanked Japarov for the special status of the Russian language in Kyrgyzstan, explicitly stating it helps the economy, underscores Russia's intent to maintain linguistic and economic influence in Central Asia. TASS reports on Armenian law enforcement searching a company related to Karapetyan for money laundering and tax evasion, indicating continued RUF focus on internal Armenian political/economic developments as part of broader regional influence. ТАСС [Video message] (Video depicts a meeting between high-ranking officials, likely from Russia and Kyrgyzstan, discussing bilateral relations and CSTO summit. Focus on political and strategic discussions between allied nations.) Kotsnews reports Russian MFA warned citizens about travel to Azerbaijan. Alex Parker Returns shares video of Russian MFA spokesperson. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying Medvedev's silence on Azerbaijan tensions. ТАСС reports the Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan was summoned and protested against, and the Russian Embassy receiving complaints from Russians in Azerbaijan, actively fueling anti-Azerbaijani sentiment. Военкор Котенок and Операция Z amplify charges against Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, which, combined with the diplomatic spat, will likely increase anti-Azerbaijani sentiment among the Russian public. Kotsnews posts "Я против злорадства в отношении релокантов в Баку" (I am against gloating about re-locators in Baku), indicating attempts to manage the intensity of anti-Azerbaijani sentiment while still highlighting the issue. Военкор Котенок shares a "My Little Pony" image as an alleged "methodology guide" for Russian policy towards Azerbaijan and Central Asia, which is a crude, dismissive attempt to mock and assert dominance. Alex Parker Returns posts "Дай. Азербайджан потребовал от РФ компенсации пострадавшим из-за действий российских силовиков в Екатеринбург. Также замминистра иностранных дел Азербайджана добавил, что использование в отношении азербайджанцев выражений типа этническая преступная группировка недопустимо." (Azerbaijan demanded compensation from the Russian Federation for those affected by the actions of Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan also added that the use of expressions such as "ethnic criminal group" in relation to Azerbaijanis is unacceptable.). This directly highlights the diplomatic tension that could inflame public sentiment. Kotsnews reinforces this with "Азербайджан требует денег за "страдания" своих" (Azerbaijan demands money for "suffering" of its own). Colonelcassad confirms "Пока дипломаты и правоохранительные органы делают свою работу в рамках правовых процедур." (For now, diplomats and law enforcement are doing their work within legal procedures), indicating RUF is portraying a measured and legal approach to the diplomatic dispute. TASS reports the mother of a Russian national detained in Baku (Safronov) considers the charges absurd, indicating continued public concern and diplomatic pressure. ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ continues to highlight the Russia-Azerbaijan confrontation. Старше Эдды notes Azerbaijan demands compensation for arrested "ethnic Azerbaijani bandits" and protests the use of "ethnic" terminology, reflecting RUF's intent to inflame the issue. Rybar publishes an infographic "Crisis of Russia and Azerbaijan", centralizing this narrative. Alex Parker Returns reports Azerbaijan's MFA states Russian claims of force against citizens are baseless. Два майора reports that the West has intensified preparations for parliamentary elections in Moldova, indicating continued regional geopolitical focus. Maria Zakharova states work is underway to ensure consular access to Russian journalists arrested in Azerbaijan, indicating continued diplomatic efforts in the ongoing spat. Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming that the Head of Tatarstan materialized in Turkey during the conflict with Azerbaijan, implying potential disloyalty or complex geopolitical maneuverings, which could be an RUF information operation to sow distrust. TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are strategic and that some forces do not like this, indicating continued RUF attempts to control the narrative around the diplomatic spat. NEW: Филолог в засаде provides a warning to Russian citizens against traveling to countries with "muddy-slippery politics," especially those "unfriendly," citing the Azerbaijan situation. (030717Z JUL 25) Rybar shares a photo message on British threats of sanctions against Kazakhstan. (030734Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages with caption "I will be your Russia Iqbal" implying narrative on Azerbaijan. (030805Z JUL 25) Kotsnews states "I don't understand the attacks on Zakharova regarding the situation with Azerbaijan." (030838Z JUL 25) Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." (030841Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns posts photo message "Plan "Minimum 100,000 rubles for everyone" yielded first results." (030833Z JUL 25) This message is a domestic-focused, non-military advertisement for a financial scheme, indicating that RUF is allowing civilian content within its information space, potentially as a form of social cohesion or distraction. Confidence: HIGH (on most reports; LOW for unverified ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ claim).
    • Diplomatic Engagement: TASS reports Lavrov will participate in the BRICS summit, indicating Russia's continued focus on non-Western alliances. TASS reports that the dates for the third round of negotiations with Ukraine have not yet been determined, indicating Russia's control over the pace of diplomatic engagement. TASS also reports that Putin has no phone call planned with Aliyev, indicating a deliberate diplomatic stance concerning Azerbaijan. TASS reports Peskov's statement that while Europeans are not ready to hear Russia's position, constructive dialogue always exists, and Russia is content with being listened to, indicating an intent to maintain channels for engagement, even if limited. TASS reports Russia will notify Sweden of denunciation of a nuclear data exchange agreement, indicating a hardening stance on nuclear transparency with NATO members. TASS reports Rutte's statement that Ukraine cannot sustain itself without Western weapons, which RUF will exploit. TASS reports Zakharova's statement that the EU should be renamed "European Block - NATO members," signaling RUF intent to intensify anti-NATO rhetoric and discredit European defense integration. РБК-Україна reports "❗️ Рютте різко пройшовся по Лаврову: "З його рота нічого корисного не вилітало"" (Rutte sharply criticized Lavrov: "Nothing useful came out of his mouth"). This reflects continued diplomatic tension. TASS reports US has not yet requested an agrément for a new ambassador to Moscow, indicating diplomatic stagnation. TASS reports Russia's delegation head in Vienna notes opposing memorandums with Ukraine, indicating a continued stalemate in negotiations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of NATO Secretary General Rutte criticizing Lavrov. TASS reports that the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. This aims to manage the narrative around US aid. TASS reports Orban believes Zelensky still has time to turn towards peace in his policy. TASS reports the Kiev leadership expects European countries to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US, citing Politico. Fighterbomber comments on the format of meetings, potentially hinting at high-level diplomatic engagements. The Economist reports Ukraine faces "reckoning" due to the cessation of US arms supplies. Operational Z reports the decision on the fate of arms supplies to Ukraine lies with Trump and Heggset, framing it as a US political decision. NEW: RBK-Ukraine shares image of Zelensky and Trump possibly having a phone call. (030742Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports Ukraine wants to get permission to purchase US weapons at Europe's expense. (030748Z JUL 25) TASS reports US decision to suspend military supplies applied not only to Ukraine but also to other countries. (030811Z JUL 25) TASS reports on the European Commission's confidence vote on von der Leyen. (030851Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Social Cohesion/Domestic Engagement: TASS reports LDPR launched a Telegram bot for "honest dating," "Oboyudno," for finding like-minded people and creating families. This indicates an intent by political parties to engage the domestic population and promote social cohesion, potentially as a soft power projection aligned with traditional values during wartime. Kotsnews reports on being a mentor for "Knowledge.Lector" contest, indicating involvement in educational or public speaking initiatives, potentially for propaganda. Старше Эдды shares photos celebrating "Veterans of Combat Operations Day," in Rostov-on-Don, intended to boost military morale and civilian support. Глеб Никитин posts about a public art project ("Городская азбука" - City Alphabet) in Nizhny Novgorod, likely aimed at promoting local culture and civic pride, indirectly contributing to social cohesion. Новости Москвы posts about a new stage opening in Patriarch Ponds, Moscow, indicating continued efforts to maintain civilian normalcy and leisure activities. TASS shares new videos regarding the filming of a music video for "Intervision-25" in Moscow for the singer Shaman, signaling intent to use cultural events for morale boosting and national identity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian MoH developed recommendations for medical staff working with SVO participants, indicating efforts to support military personnel and their families. TASS reports Putin joked about the coming winter, referring to summer weather. TASS reports Putin requested a report on creating conditions for education for widows of SVO fighters, highlighting social support. TASS posts a video of Tsivileva proposing to Putin to extend education quotas to widows, reinforcing this. TASS reports Russian airlines transported almost 50 million people in the first half of 2025, likely aimed at demonstrating stability and normalcy. TASS reports Durov denies Telegram leaving Russia. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees in memory of missing servicemen. TASS reports Matkapital (maternity capital) will be indexed in Feb 2026 by inflation, indicating long-term social support. Полиция Хабаровского края posts an image related to traffic police anniversary, aimed at projecting stability and positive domestic events. Fighterbomber shares a photo message "Доброе утро, страна!" which is a generic morale booster for Russian population. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts "Good morning airborne family!", aimed at boosting military morale. Новости Москвы reports Day of the City in Moscow will be held on September 13-14, implying preparations for a large public event which will be used for morale boosting. Новости Москвы reports that the price of 1 m² with mortgage exceeded 1 million rubles in 10 million-plus cities, indicating domestic economic conditions that may impact public sentiment. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video (030659Z JUL 25) with a political statement or speech; content is civilian in nature. Alex Parker Returns posts a video (030700Z JUL 25) making an appeal for financial donations for a church restoration. Moscow News posts photos of traffic police cars equipped with systems for identifying drivers without licenses. (030728Z JUL 25) Новости Москвы posts video advising Russians to sleep after lunch at work. (030810Z JUL 25) TASS reports Mishustin instructed to prepare proposals for tax benefits for IT companies with state participation. (030804Z JUL 25) TASS reports Mishustin instructed to focus on AI when issuing grants for IT projects, and prioritize defense industry enterprises. (030815Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Conscription/Mobilization: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on an IT specialist being conscripted despite a court ruling, indicating RUF's intent to enforce mobilization aggressively and disregard legal exemptions. Николаевский Ванёк shares a video featuring a Chinese national who claims to have joined the Russian army for financial reasons and then experienced harsh conditions and combat. This aligns with RUF's intent to recruit foreign nationals, but the video itself, if genuine, also exposes the poor treatment of these recruits, which could be detrimental to future recruitment efforts. This could be either a UAF PSYOP highlighting RUF abuses, or a genuine, albeit rare, instance of disgruntled foreign fighters being exposed. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video featuring a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade discussing contract service and conditions. This indicates UAF is leveraging POWs for counter-propaganda about RUF recruitment practices. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of military personnel are more often taken to orphanages, which could be a domestic social issue impacting morale. MoD Russia shows a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing forced conscription into the AFU, suggesting RUF's intent to amplify this narrative to undermine UAF mobilization. ASTRA reports a mobilized Russian from "DNR" twice attempted suicide due to bullying from convict-servicemen. Colonelcassad shares a video of an emotional speech from a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing mobilization issues and sending men "like meat" to the front. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of RUF soldiers in wheelchairs seeking new volunteers, implying recruitment of injured personnel. NEW: BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. (030729Z JUL 25) Confidence: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Dnipropetrovsk Border Penetration: RUF claims of penetrating the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, specifically taking Dachne, are a significant tactical adaptation, indicating a potential shift from solely attritional engagements to attempts at deeper penetration. Colonelcassad's claim of capturing a Ukrainian soldier from the 79th Brigade in Dnipropropetrovsk Oblast, allegedly sent to close the RUF breakthrough, further supports the RUF narrative of successful penetration. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Chernov, supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) This video, appearing shortly after claims of a prisoner from the 79th Brigade, suggests a coordinated tactical adaptation to use captured personnel for immediate information warfare to support territorial claims and undermine UAF morale. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Днепропетровское направление." The images display a rural, possibly forested or overgrown area with visible signs of recent ground disturbance and military activity, including what appears to be dugouts, trenches, or recently shelled areas. The context implies ongoing operations in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. This confirms continued RUF presence and activity in the contested area. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have abandoned their positions in Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR. This further supports the RUF narrative. Операция Z claims "Valiant" forces breaking through towards Myrnohrad and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, suggesting a continued, larger-scale effort to penetrate. Colonelcassad's video of Alexander Ershov, 80th Tank Regiment, details tactical maneuvers and the "liberation of Petrovskoye in DPR" and Yalta, claiming to have reached Zirka-Poddubnoe on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. This indicates a broader and deeper penetration attempt. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message (030749Z JUL 25) claiming RUF missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 01 JUL. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community in Synelnykivskyi district with a KAB." (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: CRITICAL (contradictory reports).
  • Increased Use of UGV: The observed use of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount on the Pokrovsk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Tactical Mobility with ATVs/Motorcycles: UAF reports of successful strikes against RUF tactical assaults by ATVs/motorcyclists indicate RUF's continued reliance on light, fast-moving groups for probing attacks. WarGonzo reports a Russian soldier on an ATV traversing a mined route to evacuate a wounded comrade, indicating continued use of ATVs for tactical mobility and a willingness to accept high risk for personnel recovery. Colonelcassad's video of Alexander Ershov details approaching in small groups on foot and motorcycles for assault, confirming use of motorcycles for tactical movement. Воин DV shares new video of a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV, which implies continued RUF use of such vehicles for tactical mobility. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of individuals riding ATVs in a wooded area in tactical gear, indicating continued use for reconnaissance or patrol. (030701Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Enhanced UAV Capabilities: The claimed first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv, coupled with reports of unusual tail numbers on "Geranium" debris in Odesa. Colonelcassad video shows Ka-52 helicopter engaging and shooting down Ukrainian fixed-wing drones with Igla-V missiles, suggesting an anti-drone air-to-air capability. Budanov (HUR) reporting on the second developer of CRPA antennas for Shaheds implies RUF is maintaining redundant and advanced capabilities in drone development. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian artillerymen receiving an EW system, indicating adaptive procurement of counter-drone technology from civilian sources. Воин DV shares video from the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade showing a soldier shooting down an enemy drone with small arms fire, indicating a tactical adaptation to counter-UAS roles at close range. Colonelcassad reports Russian naval forces successfully destroying enemy BECs and drones in the Black Sea, indicating adaptive counter-drone capabilities. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows explosion and damaged building from an aerial view, indicating continued effective RUF drone targeting capabilities. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF ISR adaptation. Kadyrov_95 video shows Akhmat Special Forces using drones for strikes. Воин DV video shows FPV drone usage in trench assaults. Colonelcassad's "Hunters for dronovodov" video implies active counter-drone units. Два майора's video shows aerial footage with multiple explosions, indicating continued RUF drone ISR and targeting. Воин DV drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system being used on the front. Николаевский Ванёк reports on the movement of 5 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) towards Odesa/Lymanka and their subsequent downing by AD. Colonelcassad reports Ussuriysk paratroopers' UAV operators destroyed a UAF strongpoint with personnel in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued adaptation of drone usage for infantry support and direct strikes. Операция Z shares new videos showing alleged attacks on Lipetsk, attributed to Ukraine, indicating continued and perhaps intensified deep strike UAV operations. Colonelcassad shares a video "Идем на Покровск: Результаты работы FPV группировки ЦЕНТР" (Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work), showing FPV drone strikes on an armored personnel carrier, a camera system on a tower, and an enemy shelter. Igor Artamonov also reports a drone strike on a building in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast. New RUF video shows drone-operated mortar system firing on targets in a village from Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting continued RUF use of such systems and continued destruction. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV, injuring 4. Igor Artamonov reports a fire caused by a drone falling on a parking lot of an enterprise in Yelets, which has been localized with no casualties reported. Igor Artamonov also reports continued red alert for drone attack in Yelets and Yelets district. Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video messages of drone activity over Russia, with explosions reported in Lipetsk and Voronezh Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares video reporting an attack on the "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. ASTRA shares new videos of Lipetsk night attacks. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. This implies RUF is actively conducting SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations and using drones for this purpose. Операция Z's new video shows RUF artillerymen from the south of Donetsk focused on countering enemy drones and needing thermal imagers for night operations, highlighting continued RUF focus on counter-UAS capabilities. Воин DV reports a 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operator discovered and destroyed a UAF vehicle on the Shakhtyorsk direction. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows effective counter-drone activity by the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, 70th Motor Rifle Division. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 52 drones were launched by RUF, with 40 neutralized, indicating continued high volume of drone attacks. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 69 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian AD overnight. Воин DV shares video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected over Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk oblasts. STERNENKO reports intentions to purchase more Shahed interceptors. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava, claiming "Geraniums" hit a TCC building, indicative of RUF's continued deep strike drone capabilities against military and administrative targets. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos of shrapnel from RUF drones found by civilians, indicating the use of fragmentation warheads and civilian impact. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attack on Lomakovka, Starodubsky municipal district, indicating continued UAF cross-border strikes. Colonelcassad shares a video showing an explosion over Poltava, which is framed as an RUF "Geranium" strike on a TCC building, reinforcing the narrative of RUF drone effectiveness. Colonelcassad shares another video from Poltava, emphasizing the aerial aspect of the strike, implying advanced RUF drone capabilities. NEW: Воин DV FPV operators from the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to destroy enemy equipment near Oktyabrskoye, and shares tactical drone footage. (030700Z JUL 25) MoD Russia shares a video of an Orlan UAV aiming artillery at a target. (030711Z JUL 25) Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030706Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. (030715Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC. (030719Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. (030723Z JUL 25) Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. (030730Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. (030735Z JUL 25) Air Force reports significant activity of various enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030750Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. (030822Z JUL 25) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of drone operators destroying RUF personnel and vehicles in Donetsk Oblast. (030814Z JUL 25) AV БогомаZ shares photos from a working meeting, not directly military, but indicates continued governance in border region. (030847Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Adaptation to UAF Deep Strikes: The claimed increased "Geranium" production for direct front-line use (RUF video) suggests RUF is adapting to UAF deep strikes on ammunition depots and logistics. ASTRA confirming the damage to Izhevsk's Kupol plant (UAV production) indicates RUF's military-industrial complex remains a target, driving RUF to adapt its production/dispersal. ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk prior to the attack, indicating a defensive adaptation. Colonelcassad shares photo messages stating that TsNIITOCHMASH has increased production of universal packaging for high-precision munitions actively used in the SVO zone. The images accompanying the messages show various rugged, waterproof, and impact-resistant cases. While not combat equipment, this indicates efforts to improve logistics and protection for high-value munitions, likely in response to UAF deep strikes. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, showing smoke and damaged areas, confirming UAF deep strike capabilities. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath of the attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Public Funding for Heavy Equipment: The appeal by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" for donations to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS to counter UAF drones and for combat missions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video with a caption "Сбор для Десантников🪂" (Collection for Paratroopers), confirming continued reliance on public funding for specific unit needs, also collecting for soldiers' needs. (030741Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the National Guard Brigade "Rubizh" is collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment, indicating UAF's similar reliance on public donations for unit-level sustainment. Colonelcassad shares videos about support fund for SVO. (030805Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Tactical Small Arms Enhancements: The video showing a Russian AGS-17 Plamya automatic grenade launcher team providing fire support with a suppressor attachment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's sniper video showing use of suppressors and advanced optics confirms RUF is deploying tactically enhanced small unit capabilities. Воин DV shares photo messages with the caption "Гвардии сержант Мэргэн Будаев, старший разведчик-снайпер 14-й гв. отдельной бригады армейского спецназа России." The images display a Russian soldier in tactical tactical gear, including a helmet with NVG mount, tactical vest, and camouflage uniform, armed with a sniper rifle. The soldier's presence and equipment indicate participation in ongoing military operations. The content identifies the individual as a senior scout-sniper from the 14th Guards Separate Brigade of Army Special Forces. The visible equipment, including the sniper rifle, suggests continued focus on specialized infantry capabilities. Воин DV shares two new videos, captioned #ГероиСпецоперацииV, showing a Russian soldier discussing his combat experience. (030758Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Use of Captured/Defected Personnel for IO: Оперативний ЗСУ video showing two alleged RUF defectors or captured soldiers speaking about surrender and defection to UAF, implying successful UAF psychological operations and utilization of captured personnel for information warfare. RUF's immediate publicization of a captured UAF soldier allegedly from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Colonelcassad) indicates an adaptation to use POWs for immediate propaganda advantage related to territorial claims. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Chernov, supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) This video further confirms the immediate tactical adaptation by RUF to use alleged POWs for information warfare, especially to target UAF morale and recruitment narratives related to manpower issues. Николаевский Ванёк shares a video featuring a Chinese national who claims to have joined the Russian army for financial reasons and then experienced harsh conditions and combat. If authentic, this is a significant UAF success in capturing a foreign national and exploiting him for information warfare. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade discussing contract service and conditions. This indicates UAF is leveraging POWs for counter-propaganda about RUF recruitment practices. MoD Russia shows a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing forced conscription into AFU, suggesting RUF's intent to amplify this narrative to undermine UAF mobilization. Colonelcassad shares a video of an emotional speech from a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing mobilization issues and sending men "like meat" to the front. "Воин DV" shares a new video, captioned "Очередной эмоциональный рассказ от украинского военнопленного" (Another emotional story from a Ukrainian prisoner of war), showing a captured UAF soldier being used for propaganda. NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video titled "The perpetrator of the war crime - the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner, is now himself captured by the SOF." (030848Z JUL 25) Kotsnews shares video of a man speaking about his experiences as a Ukrainian soldier. (030849Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Remote Mining Operations: Воин DV video showing drone operators conducting remote mining near Voskresenka indicates an adaptation to establish new minefields or reinforce existing ones without direct human exposure. Confidence: HIGH.
  • WarGonzo's 757_электротехника в деле #1 (757_electrical engineering in action #1) suggests RUF is leveraging specialized technical skills for military applications, potentially in EW or drone development. Confidence: MEDIUM (vague, but implies technical adaptation).
  • Exploitation of Captured Equipment: The reported capture of a Leopard 2A6 tank, if accurate, indicates RUF's intent to exploit Western military equipment, likely for intelligence analysis and propaganda. Оперативний ЗСУ shows a video of tactical theft of a PKM machine gun from Russian positions, including drone targeting of the weapon, indicating UAF adaptation to acquire RUF equipment. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • TASS shares a video claiming destruction of a Leopard 2A6 tank in Sumy Oblast by "Rubicon" drone operators, indicating RUF is attempting to exploit and publicize successful engagements against Western-supplied equipment for propaganda purposes. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Adapting to Manpower Issues: WarGonzo shares video with a caption "Brothers in blood became brothers in arms," depicting military-style personnel, which could be an attempt to address manpower issues by promoting familial/fraternal ties to military service, serving as a motivational and recruitment tool. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on an IT specialist being forcibly conscripted, indicating RUF is adapting to manpower needs by overriding legal exemptions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining about "prison-like" living conditions and lack of food. This, if genuine, points to localized failures in personnel sustainment and morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also reports children of military personnel are more often taken to orphanages, indicating social adaptations related to wartime manpower. MoD Russia shows a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing forced conscription of medics and drivers into AFU, suggests RUF's attempt to highlight UAF personnel issues to mitigate domestic concerns about their own. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of Russian soldiers expressing a willingness to "repair this shit at their own expense," implying resourcefulness amidst equipment shortcomings or damage. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shows a cemetery with many graves, likely reflecting losses. ASTRA reports a mobilized Russian from "DNR" twice attempted suicide due to bullying from convict-servicemen. Colonelcassad shares a video of an emotional speech from a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing mobilization issues and sending men "like meat" to the front. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of RUF soldiers in wheelchairs seeking new volunteers, implying recruitment of injured personnel as an adaptation to sustained casualties and reflecting heavy losses. NEW: BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. (030729Z JUL 25) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts "Places for the names of the dead have run out on the stele in Saratov." (030850Z JUL 25) This indicates RUF is suffering significant casualties to the point that memorials are being saturated. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Adaptation of Communication Security: Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Перехват радиообмена 425 ОШП «Скала» в районе Красноармейска" (Interception of radio exchange of 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" in the Krasnoarmeysk area). This implies that RUF is actively conducting SIGINT and adapting to UAF communication methods, potentially to gain tactical intelligence or for propaganda purposes. TASS reports Durov confirming Telegram fact-checking feature, which could be a response to pressure to moderate content. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Rybar posts two new videos of what appears to be RUF soldiers in a training environment, likely tank crews, with the caption "Учеба на чужих ошибках" (Learning from others' mistakes). This implies RUF is adapting its training based on lessons learned from combat, suggesting ongoing professional development and tactical adaptation. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shares new video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group demonstrating coordinated movement and firing while advancing, indicating continued training and adaptation for offensive operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Rybar posts a new video on migration statistics in Europe and calls for stricter migration policies in Russia, indicating an adaptation in RUF information operations to leverage societal issues for domestic policy debates. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Fighterbomber discusses the adherence to and deviation from instructions ("Насчёт действий по инструкции и когда от нее можно отходить"), implying RUF units are adapting their operational guidelines based on battlefield experience, demonstrating tactical flexibility. Confidence: HIGH.
  • External Ammunition Production: Colonelcassad reports Rostec launched a factory for Kalashnikov ammunition in Venezuela, indicating RUF's adaptation to establish new, external production capabilities to bypass sanctions or reduce domestic strain. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Field Vehicle Modification: Colonelcassad's video shows a civilian Lada being converted into a military "buggy," indicating a rapid, low-cost adaptation to provide tactical vehicles. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mine Warfare: TASS reports that UAF began mining Kupyansk, preparing for urban combat. This indicates a tactical adaptation by UAF in anticipation of RUF advances. TASS reports UAF is mining Kupyansk. Confidence: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Ammunition: Continued massed artillery and guided bomb strikes indicate sustained ammunition supply. RUF's public appeals for donations (e.g., Mavic drones, food, communication equipment for paratroopers, and even a Grad MLRS) suggest potential localized supply chain issues or a reliance on supplementary civilian efforts, but overall fire support remains robust. The delivery of new BMP-3s indicates continued industrial output. Narodnaya militsia DNR video reports on humanitarian aid, including medical supplies and PPE, being transported from Orenburg Oblast to Donetsk and Rostov-on-Don, demonstrating civilian support filling niche logistical gaps for both military and civilian needs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's new video appeal for donations for "Paratroopers" (Десантников) signals continued reliance on public support for specific unit-level needs, despite overall state logistical capacity. Colonelcassad shares video of artillerymen thanking a volunteer group for EW system, implying ongoing need for external support for specialized equipment. Kotsnews shares a video confirming a new batch of BMP-3s, highlighting continued military production and sustainment. The Zhytomyr explosion, if indeed an ammunition depot as claimed by RUF sources, would represent a significant RUF success in degrading UAF ammunition sustainment. The new ammunition plant in Venezuela also indicates efforts to secure long-term supply. Explosions at a claimed ammunition depot in Khartsyzk, if confirmed, would represent a significant logistics loss for RUF, but UAF claims are counter-narrated by RUF. TASS reports on the head of Piket Group making a pre-trial agreement in the low-quality body armor case, which could imply further issues with defense procurement. Colonelcassad shares photo messages stating that TsNIITOCHMASH has increased production of universal packaging for high-precision munitions actively used in the SVO zone. The images accompanying the messages show various rugged, waterproof, and impact-resistant cases. While not combat equipment, this indicates efforts to improve logistics and protection for high-value munitions, which contributes to overall sustainment. New RUF video shows mortar fire and destruction of positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting continued RUF use of mortar systems and sustained ammunition. Операция Z's new video shows RUF artillerymen from the south of Donetsk needing thermal imagers for night operations, implying some equipment shortfalls being addressed through donations. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. (030746Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports on June 2025 financial report, including "drones for soldiers." (030741Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots near Khartsyzk. (030801Z JUL 25) Confidence: MEDIUM (some reliance on donations observed, but core supply remains robust).
  • Fuel: Strikes on Ukrainian fuel depots (Odesa, Kremenchug, Drohobych) aim to degrade UAF logistics. RUF appears to maintain sufficient fuel for its operations. The strong explosion in Zhytomyr, possibly at a fuel object or a gas station, indicates continued RUF targeting of fuel infrastructure. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Personnel: Continued high-intensity assaults, particularly in Pokrovsk and Toretsk, and the commitment of VDV reserves in Chasiv Yar, suggest RUF is willing to absorb significant casualties. The recruitment for the "African Corps" indicates an ongoing need for personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports North Korea will send up to 30,000 additional troops, which would significantly alleviate RUF personnel shortages if confirmed. TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law allowing stateless persons to serve by contract in the RF Armed Forces, indicating a broadened recruitment base for RUF forces. TASS reports RUF claims over 1,235 UAF personnel losses in 24 hours, implicitly contrasting with their own, suggesting RUF believes it can sustain its current rate of attrition. TASS reports Medvedev's claim of over 210,000 contract soldiers in first half of 2025, indicating significant successful force generation and sustainment. ASTRA's report of additional memorial plaques in Saratov for war dead, consistently increasing by 330 names, indicates sustained and significant RUF personnel losses, implying high attrition for the duration of the war. Север.Реалии reports on 459 Heroes of Russia, 217 posthumously, implicitly reinforcing the high cost of the war in terms of personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining about "prison-like" living conditions and lack of food. This, if genuine, points to localized failures in personnel sustainment and morale. Николаевский Ванёк's video of a Chinese national describing harsh conditions and combat in the Russian army, if widely known, could deter potential foreign recruits and raise questions about conditions for mobilized personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shares a video of a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade discussing forced contract service, which indicates RUF's reliance on less-than-voluntary recruitment and potentially problematic sustainment for such personnel. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports children of military personnel are more often taken to orphanages, indicating social strains related to wartime manpower. MoD Russia shows a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing forced conscription of medics and drivers into AFU, suggests RUF's attempt to highlight UAF personnel issues to mitigate domestic concerns about their own. Военкор Котенок shares a video of Russian soldiers evacuating wounded, with the caption "Уходят парни… потому что не успевают вытащить" (Guys are leaving... because they don't have time to pull them out), indicating RUF personnel losses and challenges in battlefield evacuation. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shows a cemetery with many graves, likely reflecting casualties. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees in memory of missing servicemen, acknowledging losses. Colonelcassad reports the deputy commander of the 110th Mechanized Brigade, Romanyuk, was also killed. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported one fatality and two injuries in Lipetsk. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces lost about 250 soldiers in unsuccessful counterattacks near Vovchansk over the past week. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction, according to security forces. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts about a successfully "demobilized" enemy, implying a UAF BDA on RUF losses. Сили оборони Півдня України reports RUF losses of 135 personnel. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:" with imagery implying a deceased enemy soldier. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:", implying successful UAF BDA on RUF losses. NEW: BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. (030729Z JUL 25) Воин DV shares two new videos, captioned #ГероиСпецоперацииV, showing a Russian soldier discussing his combat experience, which also serves as recruitment. (030758Z JUL 25) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo message about meeting with families of marine infantry brigades. (030803Z JUL 25) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts "Places for the names of the dead have run out on the stele in Saratov." (030850Z JUL 25) This directly indicates significant RUF personnel losses. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Equipment: RUF continues to field a mix of modern and older equipment, including UGVs and enhanced T-72s. The showcase of new BMP-3 deliveries confirms ongoing domestic production and equipment refresh. Appeals for drones and heavy weapons from public sources suggest some shortfalls at the unit level. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing a Russian soldier detonating an anti-personnel mine indicates potential equipment shortcomings or desperate tactics. Два майора (RUF source) features a video showing a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck, signaling continued use of older equipment in various roles. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video showcasing a camouflaged tank in a training exercise, indicating continued efforts to maintain and showcase armored vehicle readiness. TASS reports on an investigation and arrests related to the supply of "low-quality body armor" to the Russian Armed Forces. This indicates issues within the RUF procurement and sustainment chain that could affect troop protection and morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a video of Russian soldiers expressing willingness to "repair this shit at their own expense," indicating potential equipment issues at the unit level. Colonelcassad's video of a civilian Lada being converted into a military buggy suggests a creative but perhaps desperate solution to vehicle shortages. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a Ukrainian "Novator" armored vehicle. Colonelcassad shares photo messages stating that TsNIITOCHMASH has increased production of universal packaging for high-precision munitions actively used in the SVO zone. The images accompanying the messages show various rugged, waterproof, and impact-resistant cases. While not combat equipment, this indicates efforts to improve logistics and protection for high-value munitions, which contributes to overall sustainment. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces lost 12 armored vehicles in unsuccessful counterattacks near Vovchansk, according to Andrey Marochko. Сили оборони Півдня України reports RUF losses of 4 guns, 2 mortar launchers, 2 reconnaissance UAVs, 2 EW stations, 2 communication stations, 1 engineering vehicle, 1 boat, and 1 vehicle. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. (030746Z JUL 25) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photo message about Sweden supplying Ukraine with Tridon Mk2 air defense system. (030759Z JUL 25) Два майора shares video about US wanting to equip HIMARS with hypersonic projectiles. (030803Z JUL 25) Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles near Poltavka. (030804Z JUL 25) Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Medical Support: Combat medical work from the 25th Army on the front line indicates RUF is maintaining forward medical support for its troops. Narodnaya militsia DNR video shows medical supplies being delivered by volunteer groups, suggesting civilian support for military medical needs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian MoH developed recommendations for medical staff working with SVO participants, indicating a structured approach to military healthcare. TASS reports Alexander Mitta was hospitalized, and Tsivileva proposing educational quotas for widows, showing a focus on social and medical support for military families. Воин DV shares a video of a 37th Brigade guardsman carrying a wounded comrade, indicating combat operations. Confidence: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • Centralized Control: The coordinated multi-domain strikes across various oblasts suggest a relatively effective centralized C2 structure. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. This implies effective RUF targeting and coordination, indicating strong C2. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Adaptability: The integration of new technologies (UGVs, various drone types, anti-drone systems like "Radon-O") into tactical operations demonstrates a degree of adaptability in RUF C2 to evolving battlefield conditions. Budanov (HUR) stating that one of two developers of CRPA antennas for Shaheds is dead, but not both, indicates that RUF has built in redundancy for critical drone components/development, implying foresight in their C2 for R&D. Fighterbomber's discussion on when to deviate from instructions suggests adaptive operational command. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system being used on the front. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Information Management: The swift issuance of RUF claims regarding territorial gains and counter-UAF narratives indicates a proactive and synchronized information C2. TASS reports the Washington Post stating Ukrainian officials were "caught off guard" by the US aid suspension, indicating RUF intent to amplify perceived disarray within Ukraine regarding aid. Операция Z (RUF source) also emphasizes Kyiv's confusion over the aid freeze, indicating coordinated information efforts. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's swift analysis and dissemination of potential US motives for the aid suspension further highlight RUF's coordinated information management. Операция Z (RUF source) also quickly disseminates Zakharova's statements regarding consular access in Azerbaijan, indicating coordinated diplomatic messaging. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Chernov, supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) The immediate release and wide dissemination of such a propaganda video after territorial claims indicates a highly coordinated and responsive information C2 system designed to exploit tactical developments for strategic messaging. Alex Parker Returns and Colonelcassad sharing disinformation regarding Zelensky stripping citizenship from Metropolitan Onufriy indicate synchronized information operations aimed at internal Ukrainian discord. Операция Z reports The New York Times as stating that the cessation of US arms supplies is a clear signal that the United States is beginning to withdraw from the war in Ukraine. Kotsnews reports "СМИ: К сентябрю у Украины закончится американское оружие" (Media: Ukraine will run out of American weapons by September). This is a direct information operation to demoralize Ukraine and pressure Western allies. TASS reports "Приостановка поставок оружия США Киеву указывает на выход Вашингона из конфликта, пишет NYT." (Suspension of US arms supplies to Kyiv indicates Washington's withdrawal from the conflict, NYT writes). This is RUF amplification of Western media reports to support their narrative of Western abandonment. Операция Z reports "Российского посла в Баку вызвали в МИД Азербайджана, ему выражен протест в связи с "недружественными действиями" и "шагами российской стороны, подрывающие отношениям между двумя странами"." (Russian ambassador to Baku summoned to Azerbaijani MFA, protest expressed due to "unfriendly actions" and "steps by the Russian side undermining relations between the two countries"). This confirms RUF's intent to highlight and possibly exploit diplomatic tensions. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's briefing statements, which include ongoing diplomatic issues with Azerbaijan and concerns over the treatment of Russian citizens. This reinforces RUF's intent to use these issues for diplomatic pressure and internal narrative. ASTRA reports "Зеленский лишил гражданства Украины главы Украинской православной церкви Московского патриархата Онуфрий" (Zelensky stripped Ukrainian citizenship from the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate Onufriy). This is a highly polarizing action that RUF will exploit to sow religious and political discord within Ukraine and justify its "protection" narrative. НгП раZVедка amplifies the NYT report that the US is leaving the conflict, a core RUF information operation. Colonelcassad amplifies complaints from Russians in Azerbaijan, fueling the diplomatic dispute narrative. Военкор Котенок reports "Россияне в Азербайджане, в т.ч. туристы, жалуются на насилие, визиты неизвестных лиц, представляющихся полицией, прессинг, задержания и т.д." (Russians in Azerbaijan, including tourists, complain about violence, visits from unknown persons posing as police, pressure, detentions, etc.). This is a clear attempt to create a narrative of Azerbaijani hostility towards Russians, justifying RUF's diplomatic stance. Операция Z shares a photo message containing a highly derogatory reference to an alleged speechwriter for Zelensky, aiming to discredit and dehumanize Ukrainian leadership. TASS reports that a Ukrainian blogger, Vlad Bumaga, was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. This is an RUF information operation to discredit Ukrainian civil society efforts against pro-Russian elements. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "🤔🇺🇦Как вяжутся логически выражения "это война" и "в результате подлого удара"???" (🤔🇺🇦How do the expressions "this is war" and "as a result of a cowardly blow" logically combine???). This appears to be an RUF-aligned source attempting to create a false dichotomy or criticize Ukrainian rhetoric as inconsistent, as part of an ongoing information operation. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "😎🇺🇦русня, та ладно вам скулить, у вас флота всё равно нет уже, нахрена вам командующий?)" (😎🇺🇦Russians, come on, stop whining, you don't have a fleet anyway, why do you need a commander?). This is a clear attempt to mock and demoralize RUF, especially following the reports of a Black Sea Fleet Commander being liquidated, indicating UAF intent to exploit perceived RUF vulnerabilities. TASS posts new videos of a Russian singer (Shaman) filming a music video for "Intervision-25", signaling intent to use cultural events for morale boosting and national identity. Alex Parker Returns reports a quote from Marianna Bezuhla, a Ukrainian MP, stating "The USA is no longer an ally of Ukraine," which is a clear RUF information operation to sow discord. Colonelcassad reports NATO Secretary General supported the suspension of US arms supplies, implying Western disunity. Rybar's "Reputation over Peace" message likely pertains to this information operation. TASS reports the CIA acknowledging its 2016 election interference assessment may have been politically motivated. Colonelcassad reports the CIA officially disavowed accusations against Russia concerning the 2016 US election interference. Rybar shares a video on "Price of normalization of relations," which can be interpreted as a demand for concessions from the West. Two majors share an image of a "Crisis of Russia and Azerbaijan," indicating continued intent to frame this as an ongoing issue. ASTRA reports Vlad Bumaga added to "Myrotvorets," which RUF will exploit to portray Ukraine as repressive. Операция Z pushes the narrative of a "genocide" by OUN and UPA against Poles, fueling historical revisionism and discord. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС (citing NYT) reports absence of new US sanctions allowed Russia to resume supply of military goods. TASS reports that the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. This aims to mitigate the surprise/damage control narrative from UAF. TASS reports Orban believes Zelensky still has time to turn towards peace in his policy. Alex Parker Returns posts a video mocking Zelensky, calling him a "military dictator" and using the metro in Kryvyi Rih as a sarcastic example of his priorities compared to Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares a photo message about the flow chart "Why the war is not ending? Because they profit from it." TASS reports SBU adding Russian artists and politicians to its розыск database, which RUF can use for propaganda. TASS reports American guards in Gaza opening fire on Palestinians, which RUF can use to highlight alleged Western human rights abuses. Операция Z shares new videos showing alleged attacks on Lipetsk, attributed to Ukraine. ASTRA shares a video of Lipetsk residents reporting numerous explosions. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. TASS reports the Kiev leadership expects European countries to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US, citing Politico. Rybar reports on the Middle East crisis, which will be leveraged to highlight regional instability not tied to Ukraine. TASS reports Qatar's offer to mediate will be used by RUF to project diplomatic openness. Два майора's morning summary indicates continued centralized control over RUF information dissemination. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides new morning summaries, indicating UAF's continued transparent reporting strategy. Басурин о главном shares a historical "Pravda" newspaper from 1941, implying a long-term historical narrative and justification for current actions. Басурин о главном video states "For the US and the West, every meter liberated by the Russian army is painful," aiming to justify Russian actions and mock Western reaction. Басурин о главном also states the West will continue to build "Anti-Russia," implying a long-term struggle. Операция Z reports that Budanov has effectively admitted to the loss of Ukrainian territories, which is an RUF information operation to demoralize Ukraine. ASTRA shares a political cartoon from Hungary featuring Zelenskyy, implying foreign interference in Ukrainian information space. Operational Z reports a Pentagon spokesperson discussing the US decision on arms supplies to Ukraine, emphasizing the decision-making process by the President and Secretary. The Economist reports Ukraine faces "reckoning" due to the cessation of US arms supplies, which RUF will certainly amplify to demoralize Ukraine and highlight the supposed unsustainability of Western aid. Rybar shares a photo message discussing how the British government is looking for money to increase military spending, indicating RUF monitoring of NATO defense initiatives. Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming that the Head of Tatarstan materialized in Turkey during the conflict with Azerbaijan, implying potential disloyalty or complex geopolitical maneuverings, which could be an RUF information operation to sow distrust. TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are strategic and that some forces do not like this, indicating continued RUF attempts to control the narrative around the diplomatic spat. Kotsnews reports on "Trump's speaking silence and tanker explosions," implying a link between US political developments and UAF kinetic actions against Russian maritime assets, aiming to stir conspiracy theories. РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped, directly countering prevailing concerns about US aid. NEW: Alex Parker Returns publishes photos and videos (030700Z JUL 25) with a general address to subscribers. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a political cartoon regarding Ursula von der Leyen's confidence vote in the European Parliament, indicating RUF monitoring and commentary on European politics. (030704Z JUL 25) Rybar shares a photo message on British threats of sanctions against Kazakhstan. (030734Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine shares image of Zelensky and Trump possibly having a phone call. (030742Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports Ukraine wants to get permission to purchase US weapons at Europe's expense. (030748Z JUL 25) Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages with caption "I will be your Russia Iqbal" implying narrative on Azerbaijan. (030805Z JUL 25) Kotsnews states "I don't understand the attacks on Zakharova regarding the situation with Azerbaijan." (030838Z JUL 25) Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." (030841Z JUL 25) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares political humor message with text "Now about the situation on the couch front of "Independent". (030818Z JUL 25) Операция Z shares photo message about Ursula von der Leyen being threatened with a vote of no confidence. (030819Z JUL 25) STERNENKO shares photo message on Politico reporting Pentagon decision to suspend arms supply to Ukraine was unexpected. (030820Z JUL 25) TASS reports Diogo Jota, football player, died in a car accident. (030820Z JUL 25) Rybar shares photo message captioned "Other priorities," likely referring to the shifted US aid focus. (030828Z JUL 25) Операция Z shares photo message on "Ukraine on the verge of defeat due to freezing of US aid." (030851Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on most reports; LOW for unverified ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ claim).
  • Internal Messaging: The highly unusual RUF photo message "МЫ ВСЕ ПРОСРАЛИ!" (We have lost everything!) from Басурин о главном could be an an isolated incident, a sarcastic post, or, if genuine, a severe breach of messaging discipline, potentially indicative of underlying C2 friction or frustration. Басурин о главном's post "IF YOU WANT TO DEFEAT YOUR ENEMIES, EDUCATE THEIR CHILDREN" suggests an internal messaging focus on long-term ideological struggle and influence, hinting at a strategic component to their information operations. Rybar posts a new video on migration statistics in Europe and calls for stricter migration policies in Russia, indicating an effort to shape domestic policy debates. Colonelcassad shares a video "Смешное. Котлетный фей обещает нанести мощный удар по Лукашенко", mocking opposition figures. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video "За свой счёт отремонтируем это говно" implies a form of internal messaging to address equipment issues or morale challenges through resourcefulness. Fighterbomber shares a photo message "Доброе утро, страна!" which is a generic morale booster for Russian population. Fighterbomber's new message discussing meeting formats could be related to internal C2 practices or morale. Confidence: LOW (on literal meaning); HIGH (on presence and intent to cause internal effect).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Defensive Stability: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's statement that Russian troops' advance in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized (Sumy Oblast) indicates successful defensive operations and a degree of operational stability in some sectors. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts multiple photo messages depicting Ukrainian Air Force assets (aircraft, pilots), with captions like "Їхня стихія - небо. Їхня перевага - швидкість." (Their element is the sky. Their advantage is speed.), indicating efforts to boost morale and highlight capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Станом на 06:00 03.07.2025" (As of 06:00 03.07.2025) photo messages, signaling continued operational readiness and situational awareness. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ congratulates air defense missile troops, highlighting readiness and morale. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 16 enemy assaults repelled in the last 24 hours in Orikhiv and Kherson directions, indicating continued defensive effectiveness. 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade, DShV Armed Forces of Ukraine, shares a photo message "When equipment is in operation - soldiers are safe," emphasizing equipment readiness and soldier safety. Оперативний ЗСУ shares the General Staff's summary for 08:00, providing official information on UAF posture. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" has initiated a new tradition "Ascent to Magura," symbolizing readiness and team cohesion. Promotional videos and images of soldiers engaged in physical training in mountainous terrain reinforce this message. Serhiy Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA, shares a video commemorating the Day of Army Aviation and Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces, featuring Ukrainian soldiers and equipment, aimed at boosting morale and showcasing military capabilities. РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped, directly supporting the narrative of continued external support. NEW: Олександр Вілкул (Olexandr Vilkul) posts photos celebrating Day of Army Aviation and Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces and Air Defense Missile Forces. (030717Z JUL 25) Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts photos celebrating Day of Army Aviation. (030719Z JUL 25) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts image commemorating Day of Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces. (030727Z JUL 25) Anatoliy Shtefan posts images commemorating Day of Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces. (030728Z JUL 25, 030729Z JUL 25) Zaporizhzhia OVA shares video celebrating Army Aviation Day. (030740Z JUL 25) Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine post images commemorating Army Aviation Day. (030740Z JUL 25) КМВА posts video commemorating Day of Army Aviation (030802Z JUL 25) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo message about meeting with families of marine infantry brigades. (030803Z JUL 25) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos about Day of Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces and Army Aviation. (030803Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Resilience under Pressure: UAF units are demonstrating strong resilience under heavy RUF pressure in Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, repelling numerous assaults. The tactical fighting withdrawal in Chasiv Yar Kanal microdistrict to prepared positions suggests a disciplined and controlled response to enemy advances. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an air defense unit of the "Iron Brigade" successfully hunted down enemy targets yesterday, indicating continued defensive operations and readiness. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting and engaging a Russian "Orlan-10" reconnaissance drone on July 1st, demonstrating continued and effective counter-drone capabilities. Oleg Synyegubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, continues to provide updates on the operational situation, indicating proactive leadership and continued defensive posture. Воин DV (RUF source) also shows a video featuring a soldier with NATO/US equipment speaking about the conflict in a defensive context, possibly indicating the capture of this equipment or the soldier, or a propaganda attempt to show Ukrainian forces using Western aid. The soldier’s narrative focuses on defending against an invading force. Олексій Білошицький reports President Zelenskiy honored 414 National Guardsmen, border guards, police, and rescuers, 90 posthumously, indicating recognition of service under pressure. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of the 77th Separate Air Assault Brigade, indicating ongoing support for personnel under combat pressure. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF continues successful kinetic actions against RUF targets, including artillery strikes, drone strikes, and claimed destruction of RUF armored vehicles and temporary deployment points. The successful strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation on 30 JUN, if confirmed, highlights continued deep strike capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of FPV drones destroying a BM-21 Grad MLRS. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video showing drone footage of explosions in wooded areas, depicting successful targeting and destruction of military assets and personnel. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered and destroyed an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage, confirming UAF counter-battery and HVT targeting capabilities. Zvиздец Мангусту's collage of images with the caption "Attention, collection for the producers of 'hot treats' for the enemy" indicates UAF fundraising efforts for offensive capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "ССО провели наліт на групу росіян поблизу корodera" (SFO conducted a raid on a group of Russians near the border), which appears to show Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducting an operation against Russian forces, including the capture of prisoners. This confirms successful UAF tactical action in border areas. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares a video titled "☠️Коли ніч спадає на землю, для окупантів настає час жахів." (☠️When night falls on the earth, it's time for horrors for the occupiers.), showing thermal drone footage of what appears to be a strike on enemy positions. This indicates continued UAF offensive actions, particularly at night, and showcases drone capabilities for targeting. The large explosions in Zhytomyr, likely from UAF deep strikes against RUF targets, reinforce successful kinetic operations. Оперативний ЗСУ shows the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy armored vehicles (BMPs) on the Donetsk front. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of the 3rd Assault Brigade stealing a PKM machine gun from Russian positions. РБК-Україна shares video of successful operation of ZRK Raven system against drones. Оперативний ЗСУ reports "Торецька різня окупантів 🔪" (Toretsk slaughter of occupiers), suggesting successful UAF engagement. UAF is reporting successful strikes on an ammunition depot in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ is issuing a "Tactical Analysis of Naval Activity Report", indicating continued UAF intelligence gathering and assessment capabilities in the maritime domain. STERNENKO encourages donations for "rusoriz" (Russian cutter), indicating continued offensive intent. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, showing smoke and damaged areas, confirming UAF deep strike capabilities. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath of the attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new video footage of UAV attacks in Lipetsk, implying continued UAF deep strike capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Special Operations Forces (SFO) raid on a group of Russians near the border, confirming successful tactical actions and the capture of enemy personnel. NEW: РБК-Україна reports HUR showed unique footage of the destruction of RUF drone operators in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (030708Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots near Khartsyzk. (030801Z JUL 25) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of drone operators destroying RUF personnel and vehicles in Donetsk Oblast. (030814Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Adaptation to Drone Threats: UAF's unique training against FPV drones indicates an ongoing effort to adapt tactics and develop countermeasures. Increased training duration for countering strike UAVs further supports this. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video message showing REB specialists from the "Magura" brigade taking down Russian FPV drones, indicating continued effective electronic warfare and counter-UAS operations by UAF. STERNENKO reports the 1129th Air Defense Regiment shot down another Lancet and 3 Zala drones using the ReDrone program, confirming UAF's continued success in countering Russian loitering munitions and ISR drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of REB specialists from 47th Brigade "Magura" taking down Russian FPV drones on approach. STERNENKO posts a video "Зайшли як дупа, але все ж збили. Перевтома дається в знаки." (Came in like an ass, but still shot down. Fatigue is taking its toll.), featuring a drone identified as "WU SAMURAI AIR" and "HARPOON SS192" with what appear to be flares deployed. This suggests UAF forces are continuing to engage and neutralize enemy drones, even while acknowledging fatigue. The red star emblem on the drone, if accurately identified as a Russian drone, reinforces UAF success. Оперативний ЗСУ shows a demonstration of a homemade drone-mounted anti-FPV system ("Yesitkomt") with a 60% success rate, indicating ongoing innovation in counter-drone measures. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows the 93rd Mechanized Brigade destroying a Russian reconnaissance drone with "Z днем россии" written on its wing, highlighting UAF counter-drone efforts and morale. РБК-Україна shares video of successful operation of ZRK Raven system against drones. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is ready to buy or lease air defense systems. Николаевский Ванёк reports on the successful downing of 4 out of 5 Shahed UAVs heading towards Odesa. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV, injuring 4. ASTRA reports 4 people injured in Odesa. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ congratulates air defense missile troops. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were shot down. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 12 FPV drones targeting Orikhiv were shot down. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shares video showcasing IRIS-T SLM air defense system, confirming AD capabilities. Poltava City Council reports Poltava was under a massive attack by Russian drones. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) reports 10 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the southern operational zone over the past day. (030703Z JUL 25) КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing air defense operations. (030710Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030709Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of UAV near Konotop. (030715Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target from Kursk in Sumy Oblast. (030719Z JUL 25) Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" for mopeds in Konotop. (030734Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030737Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030751Z JUL 25) Air Force reports significant activity of various enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030750Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. (030822Z JUL 25) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photo message about Sweden supplying Ukraine with Tridon Mk2 air defense system. (030759Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Personnel Attrition: UAF video featuring soldiers discussing high attrition rates underscores the severe human cost of the ongoing high-intensity combat. The confirmed death of Colonel Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, highlights the loss of experienced leadership. RUF claims of killing the deputy commander of the 110th Brigade, Romanyuk, further highlight significant UAF HVT losses. Two UAF Air Force pilots were killed while repelling the attack on Kyiv. Олексій Білошицький reports 90 UAF/Ukrainian personnel killed. Военкор Котенок shares a video implying high Russian casualties with difficulty extracting wounded. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shows a cemetery with many graves, likely reflecting casualties. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees in memory of missing servicemen, acknowledging losses. Colonelcassad reports the deputy commander of the 110th Mechanized Brigade, Romanyuk, was also killed. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported one fatality and two injuries in Lipetsk. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces lost about 250 soldiers in unsuccessful counterattacks near Vovchansk over the past week. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction, according to security forces. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts about a successfully "demobilized" enemy, implying a UAF BDA on RUF losses. Сили оборони Півдня України reports RUF losses of 135 personnel. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:" with imagery implying a deceased enemy soldier. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:", implying successful UAF BDA on RUF losses. NEW: Anatoliy Shtefan posts message about "demobilization" of a general. (030738Z JUL 25) Shef Hayabusa posts video of armored Humvees burning. (030743Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ reports injured in Zhytomyr region increased to 82, with 2 killed. (030812Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports star of "When We Are Home" series passed away. (030814Z JUL 25) Басурин о главном states "Ukraine is drowning in blood: reckless tactics of the Kyiv regime lead to catastrophic losses at the front." (030831Z JUL 25) This is an RUF information operation designed to demoralize UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Border Defense: UAF General Staff's strong denial of broader RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, despite RUF claims and some visual evidence of a "kamikaze entry" into Dachne, indicates a robust defense of administrative borders and immediate response to reconnaissance elements. This implies a high state of readiness in border areas. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms UAF personnel on the ground are clarifying the situation. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video featuring two individuals in Ukrainian military-style uniforms standing on a Russian flag, expressing their intent to obtain Ukrainian citizenship after an encounter with a Ukrainian unit. This is likely a UAF PSYOP or actual defection event, demonstrating an effort to exploit RUF morale issues and project an image of successful tactical engagements. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Оперативна інформація станом на 16:00 02.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення" (Operational information as of 16:00 02.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion). Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Днепропетровское направление." The images display a rural, possibly forested or overgrown area with visible signs of recent ground disturbance and military activity. The context implies ongoing operations in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, which, if interpreted as a successful RUF penetration, would represent a setback for UAF. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have abandoned their positions in Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR. This RUF claim highlights a contested area and could be interpreted as an RUF success in forcing UAF withdrawal from some positions. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction, a significant claimed UAF setback. TASS reports UAF began mining Kupyansk, preparing for urban combat. TASS reports UAF has reinforced its grouping in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast, with a new unit – the Unmanned Systems Forces, indicating adaptation and reinforcement of defensive positions. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected over Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Internal Security Operations: SBU's exposure of an FSB agent preparing shelling in Cherkasy Oblast and a detained agent in Kharkiv indicates effective counter-intelligence efforts. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report Zelenskiy stripped citizenship from the head of UOC (MP) Onufriy, signaling continued efforts to counter perceived pro-Russian influence. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС also reports on this. Офіс Генерального прокурора posts a photo message about "Масштабне розкрадання продуктів у навчальній військовій частині “Десна”. Призначено підготовче засідання у справі" (Large-scale embezzlement of food in the "Desna" military training unit. A preliminary hearing in the case has been scheduled). This indicates UAF's internal anti-corruption efforts and commitment to accountability, which can bolster morale and public trust. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports another episode of abuse in public procurement in the defense sector, indicating continued internal efforts to combat corruption. The Prosecutor General's Office reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into tax evasion by a group of individuals totaling UAH 29 million, demonstrating continued efforts to uphold the rule of law. NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photos on a criminal investigation into large-scale tree felling. (030703Z JUL 25) Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photos on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. (030711Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." (030711Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major working for FSB. (030744Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Logistics/Civil-Military Coordination: Continued civil-military coordination for humanitarian and defensive operations in Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) demonstrates efforts to sustain civilian populations and support defensive lines. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reporting on harvest forecasts demonstrates continued efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure and support systems in war-affected regions. РБК-Україна reports on plans to create a municipal housing fund, indicating efforts to address internal displacement and housing needs. 🇺🇦 Запопорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages on the Coordination Council meeting regarding support for veterans and military personnel, indicating ongoing governmental efforts to address post-service needs. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) sharing photos from youth sports competitions is likely an attempt to project normalcy and national pride, bolstering morale despite the conflict. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv communities received vehicles from the German government. Олександр Вілкул (local Ukrainian official) posts photo messages with caption "ЗАКОНОМ НЕ ПРЕДБАЧЕНО, АЛЕ РОБИМО" (Not provided by law, but we are doing it) and various images of building interiors and exteriors. This highlights local initiatives to support rebuilding or strengthening infrastructure, possibly related to defensive works or shelters, demonstrating resilience and continued local governance efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photo messages about an upcoming Facebook and Instagram live stream and the head of Polohy district administration discussing the war's impact on communities, highlighting continued civilian administration and morale-boosting efforts. РБК-Україна reports on a meeting with a Japanese business delegation in Kyiv, which can boost public confidence in future economic recovery and international support. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts "🏠 Родини Захисників з Харківщини отримали сертифікати на нове житло." (Families of Defenders from Kharkiv Oblast received certificates for new housing.). This is a clear attempt to boost morale and highlight government support for military families. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on an educational project for schoolchildren. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Delta platform has 326 defense units participating in a rating. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information about psychologists presenting a comic book to children of special forces soldiers, indicating efforts to support military families. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА's photo messages of damaged areas in Kharkiv Oblast reinforce the scale of civilian impact while demonstrating the OVA's continuous operational awareness and response. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos on veterans participating in Greco-Roman wrestling in Zaporizhzhia. (030704Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports on June 2025 financial report. (030741Z JUL 25) Shef Hayabusa posts image of payment transaction. (030740Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath of strike on Poltava, including emergency services. (030801Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Military Administration Modernization: UAF General Staff photo message on the "Army+" app launching a survey about electronic reports indicates ongoing efforts to modernize military administration and improve efficiency. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Delta platform has 326 defense units participating. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Combat Preparedness Education: Президентська бригада ЗСУ video featuring a soldier emphasizing civilian basic military training and first aid highlights UAF's efforts to enhance national preparedness. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ confirms Ukraine returned the bodies of two deceased Russian military personnel with identification tags, indicating adherence to international law and potentially a channel for future POW/body exchanges. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian MoD has requested a phone call with US counterparts for clarification on weapons supplies, demonstrating proactive diplomatic engagement to address aid concerns. ASTRA confirms Ukraine's MoD intends to contact the Pentagon for clarification regarding the cessation of US military aid. Zelenskyy confirms working-level discussions between Ukraine and the US to clarify defense support, including air defense components. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС also features a State Department spokesperson clarifying US has NOT stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine wants to get permission to purchase US weapons at Europe's expense. (030748Z JUL 25) NEW: TASS reports US decision to suspend military supplies applied not only to Ukraine but also to other countries. (030811Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a UAF 3rd Assault Brigade soldier's story of survival against enemy snipers disguised as Orthodox nuns, highlighting UAF resilience and the psychological impact of covert enemy tactics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна reports YouTube has blocked the channel of fugitive MP Artem Dmytruk in Ukraine, indicating UAF/Ukrainian government efforts to counter pro-Russian information within its borders. ASTRA reports a Belarusian blogger, Vlad Bumaga, was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. Confidence: HIGH.
  • New Capabilities (Anti-Personnel Mines): РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine is withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention to begin producing anti-personnel mines, signaling a strategic shift to enhance defensive capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • HUR Assessment of Russian Black Sea Fleet: Budanov (HUR) states that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is "paralyzed" and aviation is "under pressure," and that Russian helicopters are "forced to return to bases," indicating a UAF assessment of success in degrading Russian naval and air power in the Black Sea region. UAF Naval Forces report only one enemy ship in the Black Sea, not a Kalibr missile carrier, and 6 ships in the Azov Sea, reinforcing the assessment of degraded RUF naval capability in the Black Sea. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Prisoner of War Efforts: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) reports a meeting with families of marine infantry brigades (34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 39th Separate Marine Infantry Brigades) regarding soldiers captured or missing in action near Krynky, indicating ongoing government efforts to address POW/MIA issues. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs also reports a meeting with families of the 77th Separate Air Assault Brigade, indicating ongoing support for military families. NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo message about meeting with families of marine infantry brigades. (030803Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
  • Internal Governance: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that bail was posted for Vice PM Chernyshov (120 million UAH). This indicates ongoing legal processes within Ukraine's government. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Historical/Cultural Information Operations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video about a book titled 'Ukraine, Our Native Land' by Stefan Rudnytsky, highlighting historical maps and the definition of Ukrainian lands. This is a UAF information operation aimed at reinforcing national identity and historical claims, crucial for long-term morale and resilience. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Anti-Corruption: Оперативний ЗСУ reports bail was paid for National Unity Minister Chernyshov, suspected of abuse of office and bribery. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Response to US Aid Pause: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine is ready to buy or lease air defense systems. РБК-Україна provides a detailed list of blocked US weapons (Patriot, Stinger, Hellfire, HIMARS). РБК-Україїна reports the situation with the Zhytomyr explosion is under Zelensky's personal control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Recruitment/Manning: РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the National Guard Brigade "Rubizh" is collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment, indicating potential challenges in fully equipping and sustaining personnel through official channels, thereby necessitating public support. Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Defense of Pokrovsk/Toretsk: Repelling 41 assaults in Pokrovsk direction and successful defense of Toretsk. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Captured RUF Personnel: Capture of an RUF soldier on the Toretsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ video showing two alleged RUF defectors or captured soldiers discussing their "lucky survival" during penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and expressing a desire to join UAF implies successful UAF containment and/or capture of RUF elements. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's video of alleged RUF defectors/POWs expressing desire for Ukrainian citizenship, suggesting successful UAF tactical action. РБК-Україна shares video of SFO soldiers showing a successful raid near the border, including captured Russian personnel, directly confirming successful UAF tactical action and capture of enemy forces. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "ССО провели наліт на групу росіян поблизу кордону" (SFO conducted a raid on a group of Russians near the border), which appears to show Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducting an operation against Russian forces, including the capture of prisoners. This confirms successful UAF tactical action in border areas and the capture of enemy personnel. Николаевский Ванёк shares a video featuring a Chinese national who claims to be a Russian army recruit and was captured. If authentic, this is a significant UAF success in capturing a foreign national and exploiting him for information warfare. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, indicating UAF's ability to capture RUF personnel and use them for intelligence/propaganda. Оперативний ЗСУ shows a video of tactical theft of a PKM machine gun from Russian positions, indicating successful acquisition of enemy equipment. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of the 3rd Assault Brigade stealing a PKM machine gun. Оперативний ЗСУ reports "Торецька різня окупантів 🔪" (Toretsk slaughter of occupiers). UAF is reporting successful strikes on an ammunition depot in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast. "Воин DV" shares a new video, captioned "Очередной эмоциональный рассказ от украинского военнопленного" (Another emotional story from a Ukrainian prisoner of war), showing a captured UAF soldier being used for propaganda. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Special Operations Forces (SFO) raid on a group of Russians near the border, confirming successful tactical actions and the capture of enemy personnel. NEW: STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." (030711Z JUL 25) Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photos on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. (030711Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major working for FSB. (030744Z JUL 25) Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts video titled "The perpetrator of the war crime - the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner, is now himself captured by the SOF." (030848Z JUL 25) Kotsnews shares video of a man speaking about his experiences as a Ukrainian soldier. (030849Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Counter-Battery/Drone Effectiveness: UAF drone footage showing high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk; UAF FPV strike on RUF motorcyclists; 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade artillery strikes on RUF positions; successful UAF drone strike on an RUF soldier; confirmed destruction of 14 Shahed UAVs over Odesa; 8 RUF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. STERNENKO video shows "Prime" warriors protecting Sumy from enemy reconnaissance drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports successful air defense operations against enemy targets. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of an FPV drone successfully destroying a Russian Orlan-10 drone. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video message showing REB specialists from the "Magura" brigade taking down Russian FPV drones, indicating continued UAF's effectiveness in countering RUF UAS. STERNENKO reports the 1129th Air Defense Regiment shot down another Lancet and 3 Zala drones using the ReDrone program, confirming UAF's continued success in countering Russian loitering munitions and ISR drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of REB specialists from 47th Brigade "Magura" taking down Russian FPV drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of FPV drone destroying a BM-21 Grad MLRS. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of a Russian soldier killed by a drone strike near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video showing drone footage of explosions on enemy positions. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered and destroyed an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage. STERNENKO posts a video "Зайшли як дупа, але все ж збили. Перевтома дається в знаки." (Came in like an ass, but still shot down. Fatigue is taking its toll.), featuring a drone identified as "WU SAMURAI AIR" and "HARPOON SS192" with what appear to be flares deployed. This confirms continued UAF success in neutralizing enemy drones. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares a video depicting thermal drone footage of what appears to be a strike on enemy positions. This indicates continued UAF offensive drone capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ demonstrates a homemade anti-FPV drone system ("Yesitkomt") with a 60% success rate. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows the 93rd Mechanized Brigade destroying a Russian reconnaissance drone. Оперативний ЗСУ shows the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy BMPs. РБК-Україна shares video of successful operation of ZRK Raven system against drones. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Delta platform has 326 defense units participating in a rating. Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 of 5 Shahed UAVs downed approaching Odesa. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV, injuring 4. ASTRA reports 4 people injured in Odesa. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ congratulates air defense missile troops. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were shot down. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 12 FPV drones targeting Orikhiv were shot down. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shares video showcasing IRIS-T SLM air defense system, confirming AD capabilities. Poltava City Council reports Poltava was under a massive attack by Russian drones. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) reports 10 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the southern operational zone over the past day. (030703Z JUL 25) КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing air defense operations. (030710Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030709Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of UAV near Konotop. (030715Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target from Kursk in Sumy Oblast. (030719Z JUL 25) Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" for mopeds in Konotop. (030734Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030737Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030751Z JUL 25) Air Force reports significant activity of various enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030750Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. (030822Z JUL 25) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of drone operators destroying RUF personnel and vehicles in Donetsk Oblast. (030814Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Deep Strike Success: Claimed successful strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Donetsk Oblast. ASTRA confirms four UAV production workshops at Izhevsk's "Kupol" plant were damaged and operations stopped. This is a significant UAF deep strike success against RUF military industrial complex. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС reports "В Криму ліквідовано Командувача Чорноморського флоту рф, – z-воєнкори." (Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet liquidated in Crimea, - z-milbloggers). If confirmed, this is a very high-value UAF strike success. Оперативний ЗСУ posts three new videos of large explosions, likely resulting from UAF deep strikes against RUF targets, reinforcing successful kinetic operations. New messages corroborate a strong explosion in Zhytomyr, indicating another successful UAF deep strike (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС). ASTRA and STERNENKO confirm damage to Izhevsk Kupol plant. Alex Parker Returns claims the Zhytomyr strike was on a warehouse with weaponry. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms the Zhytomyr epicenter was not a gas station, implying a more significant target. ASTRA reports a SOCAR gas station was damaged with casualties near Zhytomyr. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА confirms the Zhytomyr explosion. MoD Russia UAV operators destroyed a MaxxPro and a minibus with manpower. Explosions are reported in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, with multiple UAF and RUF sources reporting on a potential ammunition depot strike, and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claiming the target was an ammunition depot for AD, MLRS, and barrel artillery. Colonelcassad also reports a hit on a field ammunition depot near Khartsyzk. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Операция Z claims the Zhytomyr explosion was at a Polish factory (Buczynski) and caused widespread destruction. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, showing smoke and damaged areas, confirming UAF deep strike capabilities. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath of the attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new video footage of UAV attacks in Lipetsk, implying continued UAF deep strike capabilities. ASTRA reports a 23-year-old Russian woman was detained in St. Petersburg by the FSB for attempting to plant an explosive device under a defense enterprise employee's car, indicating continued UAF attempts at sabotage within Russia. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attack on Lomakovka, Starodubsky municipal district, indicating continued UAF cross-border strikes. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots near Khartsyzk. (030801Z JUL 25) Confidence: MEDIUM.
    • Air Defense Effectiveness: 475 air targets neutralized and 226 suppressed by EW during a massed RUF missile-drone attack on Kyiv Oblast. AD is active in Kyiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 of 5 Shahed UAVs downed approaching Odesa. TASS reports AD destroyed over 5 drones over Voronezh Oblast. РБК-Україна shares photos showing damage to residential buildings in Odesa following drone attacks, confirming the success of at least some RUF drones despite AD activity. ASTRA also shares similar photos. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV, injuring 4, indicating some RUF AD penetration. ASTRA reports 4 people injured in Odesa. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ congratulates air defense missile troops. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were shot down. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 12 FPV drones targeting Orikhiv were shot down. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shares video showcasing IRIS-T SLM air defense system, confirming AD capabilities. Poltava City Council reports Poltava was under a massive attack by Russian drones. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) reports 10 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the southern operational zone over the past day. (030703Z JUL 25) КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing air defense operations. (030710Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030709Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of UAV near Konotop. (030715Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target from Kursk in Sumy Oblast. (030719Z JUL 25) Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" for mopeds in Konotop. (030734Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030737Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports Konotop under UAV attack. (030751Z JUL 25) Air Force reports significant activity of various enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (030750Z JUL 25) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. (030822Z JUL 25) Сили оборони Півдня України posts videos and photos showing the aftermath of a night attack on Odesa. (030842Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Naval Force Operations: UAF Naval Forces confirm explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker (Russia's "shadow fleet") in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27. Budanov (HUR) claims the Russian Black Sea Fleet is "paralyzed," indicating significant success in degrading Russian naval capabilities. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts that Ukraine is suspected in a series of tanker explosions after they entered Russian ports. This indicates continued UAF maritime domain operations/attribution of success. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "😎🇺🇦русня, та ладно вам скулить, у вас флота всё равно нет уже, нахрена вам командующий?)" (😎🇺🇦Russians, come on, stop whining, you don't have a fleet anyway, why do you need a commander?). This mockumentary-style message indicates UAF efforts to amplify their success against RUF naval assets. RUF source "Два майора" reports Financial Times (FT) claims Ukrainian special services may be involved in blowing up Russian ships. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ is issuing a "Tactical Analysis of Naval Activity Report", providing detailed information on RUF naval presence (1 ship in Black Sea, 6 in Azov, none with Kalibrs), reinforcing the assessment of degraded RUF naval capability in the Black Sea. Confidence: HIGH (citing GUR).
    • Border Infiltration Prevention: UAF General Staff denies successful broad RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, stating any small reconnaissance groups were destroyed. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms UAF personnel on the ground are clarifying the situation. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have abandoned their positions in Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR. This RUF claim highlights a contested area and could be interpreted as an RUF success in forcing UAF withdrawal from some positions. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction, a significant claimed UAF setback. TASS reports UAF began mining Kupyansk, preparing for urban combat. TASS reports UAF has reinforced its grouping in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast, with a new unit – the Unmanned Systems Forces. Confidence: HIGH (contradicting RUF claims).
    • Counter-Disinformation: UAF General Staff's strong, repeated denial of RUF territorial claims in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is a direct counter-disinformation effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares a State Department spokesperson clarifying US has NOT stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped, directly countering prevailing concerns about US aid. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Censorship of Pro-Russian Content: The blocking of fugitive MP Artem Dmytruk's YouTube channel in Ukraine is a direct measure to restrict RUF-aligned information flow within Ukraine. ASTRA reports a Belarusian blogger, Vlad Bumaga, was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Development of New Capabilities: Withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention to produce anti-personnel mines, signaling a strategic decision to enhance defensive capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Setbacks:
    • Territorial Loss (Chasiv Yar): Tactical fighting withdrawal from Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, establishing RUF foothold east of the canal. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Ivanovske paratroopers "liberated" Nikolaevka on the Chasiv Yar direction. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Civilian Casualties: Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RUF strikes across multiple oblasts. Oleg Synyegubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports on extensive damage to residential buildings and critical infrastructure from ongoing Russian shelling and drone strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, emphasizing the challenges faced. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports two people injured from FPV drone attacks, confirming continued civilian impact. Сили оборони Півдня України shares video of a shelled medical facility in Kherson, highlighting ongoing civilian suffering but also the work of first responders. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares a video from Moscow reporting explosions and burning cars. While in Russia, such incidents may be attributed to UAF, they highlight the potential for civilian disruption on both sides. Colonelcassad reports "В Житомире ракетные прилеты." (Missile strikes in Zhytomyr), confirming civilian impacts. New messages confirm strong explosion in Zhytomyr, likely civilian impacts (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС). РБК-Україна reports a passenger minibus damaged by a drone in Sumy, confirming civilian impact. Multiple sources confirm civilian impact and casualties from the Zhytomyr explosion. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 70-year-old woman was wounded in Orikhiv. ASTRA reports a SOCAR gas station was damaged with casualties near Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна reports over 700 homes de-energized near Zhytomyr. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 2 killed and 15 injured in Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна reports 24 injured in Zhytomyr. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information about psychologists presenting a comic book to children of special forces soldiers, indicating efforts to support military families. Николаевский Ванёк reports on 2 confirmed civilian fatalities and 4 injured after a multi-story residential building was hit in Odesa. ASTRA shares photos of apartments burning in a residential high-rise in Odesa after an RUF attack, confirming civilian impact. РБК-Україна reports five people were rescued from upper floors in Odesa after the attack. РБК-Україна shares video footage showing firefighters and rescue operations in a damaged nine-story building in Odesa, including evacuation of civilians. The video confirms significant damage to the building and the ongoing emergency response by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС). РБК-Україна also shares photos of the aftermath of the Odesa attack, showing significant damage to residential areas. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported one fatality (female, born 1954) and two injuries from a drone attack in Lipetsk. Igor Artamonov also reports a drone strike on a building in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV, injuring 4, indicating some RUF AD penetration. ASTRA reports the governor of Lipetsk Oblast stated that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries, confirming civilian impact in Russia. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reports a fire caused by a drone falling on a parking lot of an enterprise in Yelets, which has been localized with no casualties reported. Igor Artamonov also reports continued red alert for drone attack in Yelets and Yelets district. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new photo/video showing the aftermath of the Odesa attack, highlighting civilian impact. Операция Z shares new videos on the Zhytomyr explosion, claiming it damaged a Polish factory and homes. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a civilian woman injured in Polohy district. ASTRA reports 4 people injured in Odesa multi-story building attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares a video of the Odesa apartment building being hit. TASS reports an elderly man died after stepping on a Ukrainian anti-personnel mine in Kupyansk. РБК-Україна reports 5 people, including 2 children, injured in the attack on Odesa. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 5 casualties, 2 children injured. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports enemy strikes on 4 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України reports continued shelling of right bank of Dnipro, causing significant destruction. Север.Реалии shares photo messages depicting a multi-story residential building damaged by a drone hit in Odesa, confirming casualties. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Odesa attack increased to five. Север.Реалии reports a woman died in Lipetsk Oblast after falling debris, confirming civilian casualties from UAF deep strikes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photos of shrapnel from RUF drones found by civilians, indicating the impact of RUF drone attacks on civilians. NEW: ASTRA reports three killed and three injured in a fire at an enterprise in Tambov Oblast, citing the acting governor. (030711Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, citing the mayor. (030721Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries from the Poltava TCC strike, including civilians. (030721Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC with fatalities and injuries. (030719Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC, causing a fire. (030720Z JUL 25) Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. (030730Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. (030735Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030741Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. (030743Z JUL 25) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded after hits on TCC and nearby buildings in Poltava. (030758Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ reports injured in Zhytomyr region increased to 82, with 2 killed. (030812Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath of strike on Poltava, showing damaged civilian buildings. (030801Z JUL 25) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares images of apartment building on fire in Odesa from RUF shelling (030803Z JUL 25) ASTRA reports 2 killed, 11 injured in Poltava. (030840Z JUL 25) РБК-Україна reports that military personnel are among the injured in Poltava. (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Personnel Losses: Confirmed death of Colonel Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, in Huliaipole. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims the liquidation of UAF Colonel Dmytro Vorona in Kramatorsk on June 28. If confirmed, this is another significant UAF HVT loss. Two UAF Air Force pilots were killed while repelling a massed RUF attack on Kyiv. Олексій Білошицький reports 90 UAF/Ukrainian personnel killed. Военкор Котенок shares a video implying high Russian casualties with difficulty extracting wounded. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shows a cemetery with many graves, likely reflecting casualties. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees in memory of missing servicemen, acknowledging losses. Colonelcassad reports the deputy commander of the 110th Mechanized Brigade, Romanyuk, was also killed. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported one fatality and two injuries in Lipetsk. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces lost about 250 soldiers in unsuccessful counterattacks near Vovchansk over the past week. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction, according to security forces. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. NEW: Anatoliy Shtefan posts message about "demobilization" of a general. (030738Z JUL 25) Shef Hayabusa posts video of armored Humvees burning. (030743Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Vulnerability to Glide Bombs: Continued RUF KAB/KAR launches across multiple oblasts demonstrate a persistent vulnerability. UAF Air Force reports continued launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports renewed activity of RUF tactical aviation in eastern and north-eastern directions, indicating continued aerial threat. РБК-Україна reports Air Force has updated information on the movement of strike drones. New message from РБК-Україна reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launches guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued air-delivered threat. NEW: Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. (030745Z JUL 25) UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Mayak of Donetsk region, Kozatske of Kherson region. (030802Z JUL 25) 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community in Synelnykivskyi district with a KAB." (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Disputed Border Penetration: The discrepancy between RUF claims of taking Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and UAF denials represents a significant information and potential tactical setback. RUF claims of capturing a UAF prisoner from the 79th Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, allegedly attempting to close a breakthrough, directly contradict UAF denials of significant penetration. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Chernov, supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) This video directly supports the RUF narrative of successful penetration and UAF manpower issues, creating a significant information setback for Ukraine by undermining their denials. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Днепропетровское направление." The images display a rural, possibly forested or overgrown area with visible signs of recent ground disturbance and military activity. The context implies ongoing operations in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, which, if interpreted as a successful RUF penetration, would represent a setback for UAF. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have abandoned their positions in Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR. This direct claim by RUF represents a significant challenge to UAF's narrative of holding the line. Операция Z claims "Valiant" forces are breaking through towards Myrnohrad and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, indicating a continued RUF offensive push. Colonelcassad's video of Alexander Ershov claims capture of Petrovskoye, Yalta and reaching Zirka-Poddubnoe on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message (030749Z JUL 25) claiming RUF missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 01 JUL. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community in Synelnykivskyi district with a KAB." (030843Z JUL 25) Confidence: CRITICAL (contradictory reports).
    • US Military Aid Pause: The New York Times report, relayed by STERNENKO, about a potential multi-month pause in US arms supplies is a significant negative development. РБК-Україна reports Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, denies US aid halt and confirms supplies continue, attempting to manage public sentiment. However, the initial report of US aid suspension by WP (TASS) indicates significant internal and external concern within Ukraine. Операция Z amplifies Kyiv's perceived confusion over the aid freeze. ASTRA confirms that Ukraine's MoD intends to contact the Pentagon for clarification, confirming ongoing uncertainty and impact. Операция Z reports The New York Times as stating that the cessation of US arms supplies is a clear signal that the United States is beginning to withdraw from the war in Ukraine. Kotsnews reports "СМИ: К сентябрю у Украины закончится американское оружие" (Media: Ukraine will run out of American weapons by September). This is a direct information operation to demoralize Ukraine and pressure Western allies. TASS reports "Приостановка поставок оружия США Киеву указывает на выход Вашингона из конфликта, пишет NYT." (Suspension of US arms supplies to Kyiv indicates Washington's withdrawal from the conflict, NYT writes). This is RUF amplification of Western media reports to support their narrative of Western abandonment. РБК-Україна reports on Rutte's reaction to the US aid halt, indicating the international impact of this setback. РБК-Україна also reports Zelensky's office reacted to rumors of US aid halt. This demonstrates the internal concern and public relations challenge for UAF. STERNENKO posts "Трамп скасував санкції проти кількох російських компаній і банків." (Trump lifted sanctions against several Russian companies and banks.). This development, if it happens, could be a significant setback for Ukraine's international support and pressure on Russia. Colonelcassad reports NATO Secretary General supported the suspension of US arms supplies, adding to public anxiety. Alex Parker Returns amplifies this, framing it as the US no longer being an ally. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС reports WSJ sources confirm the US suspended arms transfer already in Poland (Patriot, Stinger, Hellfire, AIM). TASS reports the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. РБК-Україна lists the blocked US weapons including Patriot, Stinger, Hellfire, and HIMARS. TASS reports the Kiev leadership expects European countries to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US, citing Politico. The Economist reports Ukraine faces "reckoning" due to the cessation of US arms supplies. Operational Z reports the decision on the fate of arms supplies to Ukraine lies with Trump and Heggset, framing it as a US political decision. РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped, providing a limited counter-narrative, but the initial impact of the news remains a setback. NEW: РБК-Україна reports that the US has changed priorities in arms supplies not only for Ukraine, but for other countries as well, citing CBS. (030720Z JUL 25) RBK-Ukraine shares image of Zelensky and Trump possibly having a phone call. (030742Z JUL 25) Operativny ZSU reports Ukraine wants to get permission to purchase US weapons at Europe's expense. (030748Z JUL 25) WarGonzo reports on information regarding cessation of arms supplies for AFU. (030822Z JUL 25) STERNENKO shares photo message on Politico reporting Pentagon decision to suspend arms supply to Ukraine was unexpected. (030820Z JUL 25) Операция Z shares photo message on "Ukraine on the verge of defeat due to freezing of US aid." (030851Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • High Attrition: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows a heavily injured UAF soldier, highlighting the severe attrition and human cost of the conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ reports the dismissal of Taras Kremin, the language ombudsman. While not a direct military setback, it signifies internal political shifts which can impact national unity or focus during wartime. Confidence: MEDIUM.
    • Shelter Shortfall in Kyiv: KVM A (Kyiv City Military Administration) states that Klychko claims there are no powers to place mobile shelters in the capital, highlighting a critical civilian protection and public confidence issue. Confidence: HIGH.
    • POW/MIA Concerns: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of marines missing/captured in Krynky, highlighting the ongoing public concern and emotional impact of POW/MIA status on families. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs also reports a meeting with families of the 77th Separate Air Assault Brigade, indicating ongoing public concern for missing personnel. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees in memory of missing servicemen. NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photo message about meeting with families of marine infantry brigades. (030803Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • Internal Governance (Perception of Corruption): Оперативний ЗСУ reports bail was posted for Vice PM Chernyshov. While indicating a functional legal system, it also highlights ongoing public awareness of alleged corruption within government ranks, which can affect public trust. STERNENKO reports 120 million UAH bail posted for Vice PM Chernyshov, reinforcing this internal governance issue. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports large-scale embezzlement of food in a military training unit, which can fuel public cynicism about corruption within military structures. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports another episode of abuse in defense procurement, which can negatively impact public trust. Оперативний ЗСУ reports bail was paid for National Unity Minister Chernyshov. The Prosecutor General's Office reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into tax evasion by a group of individuals totaling UAH 29 million, which may highlight ongoing challenges with internal governance and financial integrity. NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photos on a criminal investigation into large-scale tree felling. (030703Z JUL 25) Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photos on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. (030711Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." (030711Z JUL 25) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major working for FSB. (030744Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF Internal Security Issues: The video from Alex Parker Returns shows a cryptic message about "Collective responsibility for the crimes of the regime." This could be an indicator of internal dissent or calls for accountability within Russia, which could be a setback for RUF morale and cohesion. ASTRA reports a mobilized Russian twice attempted suicide due to bullying from convict-servicemen. Confidence: HIGH (on presence of message).
    • Disinformation/Propaganda Setback: Два майора shares a video that, according to its description, contains pro-Ukrainian content and calls to "Subscribe to Ukraine.ru." If "Два майора" is an RUF-aligned source, this would represent a clear failure of their content moderation or a deliberate, if unusual, act of cross-propaganda, which could be a setback for their information control. Confidence: HIGH (on observation, MEDIUM on interpretation of intent if it's an RUF channel).
    • Polish-Ukrainian Tensions: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Poland officially established a day of remembrance for victims of "genocide committed by OUN and UPA." Операция Z amplifies this, fueling historical tensions. Alex Parker Returns also reports this, emphasizing the "genocide" claim. Операция Z continues to push the narrative of the Zhytomyr explosion being a Polish factory. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports that American guards in Gaza are opening fire on Palestinians at aid distribution points, which could be used by RUF to highlight perceived Western human rights issues, a setback for Western image. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Minefield Casualties: TASS reports an elderly man died after stepping on a U
Previous (2025-07-03 08:27:41Z)

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