Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)
TIME: 022257Z JUL 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF claims of territorial gains, including Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Novonikolaevka, are partially corroborated. RUF sources claim entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), reinforced by new RUF video. RUF forces are approximately 2.5 km from the suburbs of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours, with continued clashes near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Koptyeve, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, and Oleksiyivka. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Yablunivka. RUF control over a portion of Toretsk's ruins is confirmed, but UAF continues successful defense. Capture of an RUF soldier on the Toretsk direction by UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade indicates active UAF defensive operations. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near". UAF General Staff confirms clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora. Russian forces have advanced into the Kanal microdistrict, establishing a foothold east of the canal. UAF units are conducting a tactical fighting withdrawal to more defensible, prepared positions on the western side. UAF drone footage shows strikes on trenches, fortified positions, and military vehicles in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar. RUF video shows a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount operating on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction. FPV drones of Russian forces are destroying UAF equipment and personnel on the outskirts of Konstantinovka. UAF sources confirm extensive destruction in Konstantinovka. UAF missile strike on Donetsk reported with smoke visible in the center and explosions. TASS confirmed at least 1 civilian death and 3 wounded from the strike on Donetsk. ASTRA reports three RUF servicemen were wounded in yesterday's strike on Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation and threat of RUF strike UAVs (likely Shahed-type) in Donetsk Oblast. RUF video shows detailed drone reconnaissance footage of Ukrainian positions in Donbas, indicating advanced RUF ISR and targeting capabilities. UAF reports a successful strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Donetsk Oblast on 30 JUN. Losses are being clarified. RUF video shows a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Novoyekonomicheskoye. UAF sources report successful strikes and high RUF casualties during tactical assaults by ATVs/motorcyclists in the Donetsk direction. BТYCOB ПЛЮС video shows a Russian soldier detonating an anti-personnel mine, indicating indiscriminate or reckless RUF tactics in mine-laden areas. TASS reports a Su-25 from the "Vostok" group destroyed a UAF strongpoint, indicating continued close air support for RUF ground units. Colonelcassad reports a Ka-52 helicopter engaged and shot down Ukrainian fixed-wing drones with Igla-V missiles. Сливочный каприз reports on a T-72 tank being destroyed near Borova-Druzhylivka by an FPV drone. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an FPV drone destroying a BM-21 Grad MLRS. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage, followed by friendly fire targeting and successful destruction. MoD Russia shares a video titled "00:00 A T-90 tank crew of the Tsentr Group of Forces neutralised an AFU machine-gun emplacement in Krasnoarmeysk direction." This confirms continued T-90 operations and targeting of UAF strongpoints in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Оперативна інформація станом на 16:00 02.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення" (Operational information as of 16:00 02.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion). This is a general update, suggesting no major, immediate shifts in the frontline or enemy disposition since the last report, but confirming ongoing engagements. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video with caption "Потеря связи." (Loss of connection), showing an aerial view of a damaged building and an explosion. This indicates continued RUF drone reconnaissance and targeting, possibly in the Donetsk region. The caption "Loss of connection" could refer to a UAF comms jam or a technical issue with the RUF drone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts "Семья, это артиллерия, бойцы работают на боевых машинах, которые поражают позиции противника на большом расстоянии." (Family, this is artillery, the fighters are working on combat vehicles that hit enemy positions at long range). This is a morale-boosting message highlighting RUF artillery capabilities. Басурин о главном shares a video encouraging subscription to his Telegram channel, which is a method for RUF-aligned sources to expand their information reach. Colonelcassad reports on the Russian MoD's summary of the "special military operation" as of July 2, 2025, which will provide RUF's official narrative of tactical successes. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video of multiple explosions, indicating RUF artillery or air strikes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining about "prison-like" living conditions, lack of food, and being confined, appealing for help. This suggests potential internal RUF morale and logistical issues, or could be a UAF PSYOP. НгП раZVедка shares a photo message "Хороший фотограф на вес золота." (A good photographer is worth his weight in gold), featuring a soldier in tactical gear, likely a morale-boosting post or an appreciation for combat documentation. Colonelcassad shares a video of a soldier engaging in a combat scenario with the caption "Стальной характер!" (Steel character!), a morale-boosting post. Старше Эдды shares photos from a meeting with officers in Rostov-on-Don, celebrating "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" and praising their service. This is a morale-boosting and propaganda effort to glorify military service and maintain support for the conflict. Fighterbomber shares a video of a "Звено штурмовиков" (flight of attack aircraft), likely Su-25s, indicating continued RUF close air support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video featuring a man identified as Shvartsman Aleksandr Anatolyevich, a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, discussing contract service and conditions. This indicates UAF is leveraging POWs for counter-propaganda about RUF recruitment. Два майора shares a video with a man speaking about something "актуалочка" (current/relevant), likely propaganda or a morale message. New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a large explosion with a mushroom cloud, indicating a powerful blast, possibly of a depot or storage facility. Another video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows a significant explosion in a forested area. A third video from Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a large-scale explosion affecting a highway. These videos likely depict the consequences of UAF strikes. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group showing coordinated movement and firing while advancing. This indicates continued offensive operations and training on the "Vostok" axis. Воин DV shares a video showing an aerial drone view of what appears to be a Russian drone control post and a relay antenna, with subsequent targeting and destruction. This indicates continued RUF ISR and precision strike capabilities against UAF C2. Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, MEDIUM for specific unverified territorial control/BDA, LOW for RUF veracity).
Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka). RUF claims regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR." RUF sources later corrected, stating two more villages near the border need to be cleared. UAF drone attack on Luhansk confirmed, causing fires and active RUF air defense. TASS reports over 20 UAVs flew over Luhansk. RUF conducted a combined strike to disrupt UAF rotation near Nadiya. RUF claims UAF were "knocked out" from the majority of positions on the heights near Bilohorivka. TASS claims 35 UAVs shot down over LNR, debris fell on a fuel depot, and one civilian woman was wounded. Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, LOW for unverified RUF territorial claims).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF attacked Nikopol district overnight with heavy artillery and FPV drones; 12 RUF UAVs were shot down. 4 civilians wounded in Nikopol due to FPV drone attack. RUF claims strikes on railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed Shahed attack on a military enlistment office (TCC), with 3 civilians wounded. RUF claims 114th Brigade "liberated" Dachne, with supporting video evidence. UAF Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) claims Russians did not break through to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with battles ongoing near the administrative border. UAF sources confirm overnight RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities in Synelnykivskyi district. RUF channel "Операция Z" claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire and civilian casualties (killed and wounded), including agricultural infrastructure damage. RUF video shows Russian forces raising their flag in Chernovaya Zirka, DNR, near the Dnipropetrovsk border. UAF video features Ukrainian soldiers discussing high attrition rates. Colonel Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, confirmed dead in Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Video showing RUF presence in Dachnoye (Dachne), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including flag raising and inspection of buildings. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos/videos show RUF capturing Dachne and raising Russian flag. STERNENKO reports RUF forces have indeed entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and shows drone footage of an RUF dugout in Dachne, contradicting the UAF General Staff's previous denial to RBC-Ukraine. STERNENKO's latest message at 09:13Z re-confirms the "kamikaze entry" into Dachne. UAF General Staff, at 09:07Z, issued a statement contradicting RUF claims, stating that any small reconnaissance groups that managed to penetrate the administrative border were destroyed. They re-emphasize their denial at 09:11Z and RBC-Ukraine reports the UAF General Staff's denial at 09:20Z. This creates a direct and immediate intelligence contradiction that requires further collection. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows two alleged RUF soldiers who "were lucky to survive during penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" speaking about surrender and defection to UAF, implying some RUF elements were contained or captured during penetration attempts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message (09:46Z) explicitly states "Dachne remains under the control of the Defense Forces - UAF General Staff." Воин DV video shows operators of the 5th Tank Guards Brigade conducting remote mining of a road near Voskresenka, confirming RUF intent to impede UAF movement in the area where they claim breakthroughs. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF units on that direction are clarifying the situation. Colonelcassad publishes a video claiming to show the "first captured Ukrainian soldier to surrender in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" from the 79th Brigade, which RUF states is attempting to close the breakthrough in the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: Владислав Чернов — военнослужащий ВСУ, один из тех, кого силой забрали представители ТЦК, без надлежащей подготовки почти сразу отправили на линию боевого соприкосновения. Его, как и многих других, использовали как живой ресурс, без сочувствия, без понимания и без малейшего шанса на возвращение. (Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war, Vladislav Чернов, who was supposedly forcibly mobilized by TCC and sent to the front without proper training.) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly indicating AD activity. Олександр Вілкул (likely local Ukrainian official) posts photo messages with caption "ЗАКОНОМ НЕ ПРЕДБАЧЕНО, АЛЕ РОБИМО" (Not provided by law, but we are doing it) and various images of building interiors and exteriors. This likely refers to local initiatives for rebuilding or strengthening infrastructure, possibly related to defensive works or civilian shelters. This suggests local efforts to overcome limitations in legal/bureaucratic frameworks to support the war effort and civilian protection. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Дніпропетровська область (Синельниківський р-н) - загроза застосування авіаційних засобів ураження!" (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) - threat of aerial weapon use!). This indicates continued RUF air activity and threat to the region. STERNENKO reports "За віцепрем’єра Олексія Чернишова внесли заставу у 120 млн грн." (120 million UAH bail posted for Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov). This is an internal Ukrainian legal development that impacts public perception of governance. Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, and RUF claims of presence in Dachne; MEDIUM on verified RUF control of Dachne given strong, persistent UAF denials; CRITICAL intelligence contradiction regarding broader RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and associated UAF prisoner claims).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states Russian troops advance in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. UAF General Staff reports repelling 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF drone footage shows State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (ДПСУ) units "Prime" destroying enemy targets in the Kursk direction. RUF is conducting KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast. Konotop: MoD Russia claims "Geran-2 UAVs destroyed a temporary deployment area of the AFU 58th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and a UAV depot." UAF drone footage shows several deceased Russian soldiers in a "demilitarized buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims a company of UAF soldiers was destroyed in Yunakivka. RUF claims a fight near Tyotkino with Russian paratroopers storming positions. RUF claims repelled UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff publishes a map showing the frontline in Sumy Oblast for the first time since February. RUF Msta-S howitzer crew destroyed UAF fortified positions and personnel near Yunakivka. UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. STERNENKO [Video message] shows a reconnaissance drone being intercepted in Sumy Oblast by "Prime" forces. TASS reports video claiming drone operators of "Rubicon" center destroyed a Leopard 2A6 tank in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Швидкісна ціль на Сумщині." (High-speed target in Sumy Oblast.). This indicates potential continued aerial threat, likely a missile or fast-moving drone. Confidence: HIGH (on stabilized front line, UAF defensive successes, and ongoing RUF KAB/drone activity; MEDIUM on claimed HVT loss; HIGH on RUF intelligence claims of UAF drone training; MEDIUM for claimed Leopard destruction due to RUF source).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman) and ground clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Stroyivka and towards Kutkivka, and Kupyansk direction near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zelenyi Hai. Vovchansk: RUF video confirms a TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system strike on the "butter extraction plant." Pisochyn: 8 people injured, including one child, from RUF drone attack. Korotych airfield: RUF claims strike on airfield. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe, Dovhenke and towards Petro-Ivanivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and Holubivka, Pischane and towards Novoosynove (Kupyansk direction). Kharkiv experienced a record number of Russian air attacks in June 2025. RUF video shows the destruction of a UAF L-119 howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. RUF claims forces have secured positions near Kondrashovka and occupied approximately 3 hectares near Petropavlovka. RUF claims security forces destroyed Ukrainian National Guard "Khartiya" brigade officers in Liptsy. Hostile UAV detected over Kharkiv. Explosion in Kharkiv, city under drone attack. One-story non-residential building on fire in Novobavarskyi district. One person killed, one wounded in Kharkiv Oblast from night attacks. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions on targets in Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) reports on the Kharkiv direction without specific details, indicating continued RUF focus on the area. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an air defense unit of the "Iron Brigade" successfully hunted down enemy targets yesterday, indicating continued defensive operations. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting and engaging a Russian "Orlan-10" reconnaissance drone on July 1st. Oleg Synyegubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports on the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, detailing ongoing Russian attacks including shelling and drone strikes on residential buildings and critical infrastructure. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports Kharkiv communities received vehicles from the German government. РБК-Україна shares video of SFO soldiers showing a successful raid on Russians near the border, including a captured soldier. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛸 На Харківщині - ворожий розвідувальний БпЛА! Можлива робота ППО." (Kharkiv Oblast - enemy reconnaissance UAV! Possible air defense activity.). This indicates continued RUF ISR efforts and UAF AD response. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Пуски керованих авіаційних бомб ворожою тактичною авіацією на Харківщину зі сходу." (Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east). This confirms continued RUF glide bomb use on Kharkiv. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports "Двоє людей постраждали внаслідок атак ворожими FPV-дронами на Харківщині." (Two people injured as a result of enemy FPV drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast). This indicates continued civilian targeting and the threat of FPV drones. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "ССО провели наліт на групу росіян поблизу кордону" (SFO conducted a raid on a group of Russians near the border), which appears to show Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducting an operation against Russian forces, including the capture of prisoners. This confirms successful UAF tactical action in border areas. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts "🏠 Родини Захисників з Харківщини отримали сертифікати на нове житло." (Families of Defenders from Kharkiv Oblast received certificates for new housing.). This indicates continued civilian support and social welfare efforts in the region, aimed at bolstering morale. Confidence: HIGH (on airstrikes, ground clashes, civilian casualties, and continued RUF offensive intent; HIGH on RUF intelligence regarding UAF drone training; HIGH on RUF volunteer fundraising for combat operations).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. Battles for Kamyanske are in full swing. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske, and near Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). Kadyrovites (Chechen special forces) are being prepared for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with approximately 15 military trucks moving them to Enerhodar / Melitopol / Vasylivka area. RUF attack on an agricultural enterprise in Polohy district. Civilian vehicle engulfed in flames in Zaporizhzhia after a Russian attack. RUF launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district. A 56-year-old man was wounded in Polohy district. Complex night in Zaporizhzhia, with one district subjected to Shahed drone attacks. Over 400 shellings across the region, with 4 drones hitting an industrial enterprise and one Shahed hitting a residential area. RUF channel reports artillery of the 35th Army continues to work on "planned targets" in the Polohy direction. Two people wounded from an enemy attack on Polohy district. RUF posts multiple photos and videos confirming a night strike by "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. UAF operational information as of 08:00 (local time) and photos confirming UAF strikes on enemy locations. Colonel Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, killed in Huliaipole. RUF reports strike on the 110th Brigade in Huliaipole, claiming the death of the brigade commander and other officers. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on positive harvest forecasts for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued agricultural activity despite hostilities. WarGonzo shares a video showing aerial reconnaissance or drone footage capturing ground-level activity in a wooded or brushy area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating active military operations and RUF presence. Colonelcassad reports FSB detaining three residents of Zaporizhzhia Oblast for transferring funds to Ukrainian special services and military. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of tax officials receiving awards in Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued civilian administration and morale-boosting events. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts "🚨УВАГА🚨" (ATTENTION) likely a warning for air threats. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also posts photo messages about an upcoming Facebook and Instagram live stream and another about the head of Polohy district administration discussing the war's impact on communities, highlighting continued civilian administration and morale-boosting efforts. Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, artillery activity, and Kadyrovite buildup; LOW on verified RUF control of Kamyanske; HIGH on civilian support and resilience efforts; HIGH on FSB operations in occupied territories).
Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF photos indicate continued presence and focus. UAF posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling. RUF shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing one man and wounding another. A hospital in Kherson was attacked by RUF artillery yesterday around 23:00, resulting in 5 wounded patients and 3 wounded nurses. RUF claims "Dnipro" grouping artillery destroyed a UAF Grad MLRS. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an enemy helicopter conducting reconnaissance near the Black Sea coast. Two majora (RUF source) shares a video of a Russian military truck with an anti-aircraft gun operating in the Kherson direction. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) reports a meeting with families of marine infantry brigades (34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 39th Separate Marine Infantry Brigades) regarding soldiers captured or missing in action near Krynky. Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) shares a video with the caption "Ворог продовжує обстрілювати цивільних та медичні заклади!" (The enemy continues to shell civilians and medical facilities!), showing the aftermath of shelling on a medical facility in Kherson. This confirms continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. Confidence: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. 14 Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD. Odesa Coastal Logistics/Oil Refinery: RUF reports a "powerful strike and huge fire" at an enemy object near Odesa, with video evidence. TASS reports RUF struck an oil terminal supplying fuel to the Ukrainian Navy. NASA satellite data corroborates fires in the area of grain and fuel terminals. UAF Naval Forces report no Russian naval presence in Black Sea, 2 ships in Azov, 1 in Mediterranean (no missile carriers). UAF video shows destruction of an "aerial target (Geran)" over Odesa. Explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27, citing GUR. RUF reports discovery of "Geranium" UAV debris in Odesa with unusual two-letter tail numbers. RUF drone attacks on Izmail district damaged port and tourist infrastructure. Rybar reports on strike results in Vilkovo, Odesa region, implying continued targeting of coastal areas. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF is suspected in a series of tanker explosions after they entered Russian ports. This suggests UAF is being attributed with kinetic actions against Russian maritime logistics, potentially expanding the maritime domain of conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure. RUF claims destroyed Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv. RUF claims destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka. Astra reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 114 drones and 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH (on attacks and civilian impacts; MEDIUM on specific RUF BDA claims).
Kyiv Oblast: Massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles passing Slavutych towards Kyiv. UAF AD was operating effectively. Two UAF Air Force pilots, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko and Oleksiy "Moonfish" Mes, killed while repelling the attack. UAF General Staff confirmed a massed missile-drone attack with over 500 air targets launched and 475 targets neutralized, with an additional 226 suppressed by EW. Ukrainian UAV manufacturer founder warns Kyiv may become "most vulnerable and dangerous" due to critical air defense deficit. Syrskyi states basic general training will be increased from 49 to 51 days, with two additional days for training against enemy strike UAVs. UAF General Staff posts photos from a meeting regarding countering Russian strike UAVs. KVA complains about lack of modular shelters despite 3.5 years of war. Zelenskiy signed documents for the ratification of the Agreement on the creation of a Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine. KVM A (Kyiv City Military Administration) states that Klychko (Mayor of Kyiv) claims there are no powers to place mobile shelters in the capital. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims "Kyiv is in a panic due to the halt of US supplies." РБК-Україна reports "У Києві відбулась зустріч японської бізнес-делегації: основні напрямки співпраці в Україні" (A meeting of the Japanese business delegation took place in Kyiv: main areas of cooperation in Ukraine). This indicates continued international business engagement and confidence in Kyiv despite ongoing attacks. Confidence: HIGH.
Cherkasy Oblast: RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to three nine-story buildings and a college. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. Operativny ZSU photo message from SBU about an FSB agent exposed for helping prepare shelling of Cherkasy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports SBU exposed a 20-year-old student preparing new strikes on Cherkasy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
Poltava Oblast: Kremenchug: RUF video confirms a successful strike on the Kremenchug oil refinery. UAV groups are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast, heading south. Strike UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on strikes and UAV activity; HIGH on UAF internal anti-corruption efforts).
Lviv Oblast: Drohobych: RUF video shows multiple missile/drone impacts and explosions at a refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast. Freight train derailed in Rivne Oblast. Discovery of cluster munitions after an RUF attack in Lviv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Colonelcassad reports "В Житомире ракетные прилеты." (Missile strikes in Zhytomyr). This confirms RUF missile attacks impacting Zhytomyr Oblast, west of Kyiv. The accompanying video by Colonelcassad shows a significant explosion and plume of smoke near a gas station and warehouse, corroborated by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ. New messages confirm a strong explosion in Zhytomyr, with media reports suggesting an impact at a gas station or fuel object, with associated photo and video evidence from multiple sources (РБК-Україна, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Confidence: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Saratov / Engels / Ulyanovsk / Rostov Oblast / Kazan / Nizhnekamsk / Izhevsk / Nizhny Novgorod Oblast / Khabarovsk Krai / St. Petersburg / Ukhta / Moscow): Saratov/Engels: Explosions and sirens reported. Three drones fell on the territory of the Saratov oil refinery this morning. Ulyanovsk: Temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. Rostov: RUF Air Defense destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts of Rostov Oblast. Kazan: Temporary flight restrictions imposed at Kazan airport. Nizhnekamsk: Nizhnekamsk Airport suspended operations. RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. Izhevsk: Drone attack on a military enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol" (produces Tor and Osa AD systems and drones for RUF army). Confirmed by SBU and UAF General Staff. Personnel evacuated, firefighters extinguishing fires. At least 9 people injured, rising to 45 injured, 3 killed, 35 hospitalized, 10 critical. ASTRA posts photos with caption "Четыре цеха по производству БПЛА повреждены на ижевском заводе «Купол» после вчерашней атаки. Работа предприятия остановлена" (Four UAV production workshops damaged at Izhevsk "Kupol" plant after yesterday's attack. Enterprise operation stopped). This confirms successful UAF deep strike and significant impact on RUF military industrial complex. Crimea: UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacked Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "В Криму ліквідовано Командувача Чорноморського флоту рф, – z-воєнкори." (Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet liquidated in Crimea, - z-milbloggers). This indicates a significant UAF HVT targeting claim, albeit from a pro-Russian source. Confidence: MEDIUM (requires further verification). Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: An Su-34 fighter jet crashed. Navigator died. Pilots ejected. Main landing gear malfunction. Saratov oil refinery: UAF General Staff officially confirmed attack. TASS reports an ongoing criminal investigation into the head of "Forpost Baltiki Plus," Evgeny Kononov, for embezzlement from a Russian MoD contract in Kaliningrad Oblast. This indicates ongoing internal corruption issues. TASS reports a Headhunter mobile application failure, which could impact military recruitment or civilian labor movement. TASS reports Russian MoD claims ВС РФ за сутки поразили предприятие ВПК, цеха сборки БПЛА и места их хранения (VPC enterprise, UAV assembly workshops, and storage sites). Kotsnews reports Северяне уничтожили две вражеские ДРГ в окрестностях Горналя (Northern forces destroyed two enemy DRGs in the vicinity of Gornal). ASTRA reports a postgraduate student convicted for anti-war actions was released in St. Petersburg, indicating limited internal dissent is being contained. WarGonzo reports a monument to "Motorola" in Ukhta, glorifying separatist figures. TASS reports the former first deputy head of Khimki, Nikolay Minaev, was arrested in absentia for bribery exceeding 6 million rubles, further indicating internal anti-corruption efforts within Russia. ASTRA reports additional memorial plaques for war dead being installed in Saratov, noting a consistent increase in reported fatalities. Полиция Хабаровского края reports МВД awards for police officers saving a civilian, indicating continued domestic security focus and propaganda. Север.Реалии reports Russian companies sharply increased wage arrears. Воин DV video shows operators of the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade showing a soldier shooting down an enemy drone with small arms fire. TASS reports "По делу о поставке некачественных бронежилетов в ВС РФ арестованы доли в фирмах, земля и счета связанных с главой ГК "Пикет" людей, передает корреспондент ТАСС." (In the case of supplying low-quality body armor to the Russian Armed Forces, shares in firms, land, and accounts of people connected with the head of "Piket" Group of Companies have been arrested, TASS correspondent reports). This indicates continued internal anti-corruption or efficiency investigations within the Russian military procurement system. Север.Реалии reports ""Верстка": с начала войны против Украины звания Героев России получили 459 участников боевых действий, из них 217 – посмертно" ("Verstka": Since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, 459 combatants have received the title of Hero of Russia, 217 of them posthumously). This provides data on RUF official recognition of military personnel and implicitly, the scale of their casualties. Moscow: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "⚡️У центрі Москви прогриміли кілька вибухів — за словами очевидців, згоріло щонайменше два автомобілі." (⚡️Several explosions thundered in the center of Moscow - according to eyewitnesses, at least two cars burned down.). This indicates potential internal security incidents in Moscow. Операция Z reports "‼️🇷🇺🏴☠В центре Москвы взорвалась машина с 80-летним ветераном КГБ и его дочерью, которая также работала в спецслужбах, - СМИ" (‼️🇷🇺🏴☠In the center of Moscow, a car with an 80-year-old KGB veteran and his daughter, who also worked in special services, exploded, - media). This confirms an explosion in Moscow involving high-value, albeit retired, targets. TASS reports a new court arrest in the Ural murders case (Kamal Safarov), indicating continued domestic law enforcement activity. TASS also shares two new videos regarding the filming of a music video for "Intervision-25" in Moscow for the singer Shaman. This indicates continued efforts to maintain civilian normalcy and national cultural events. Confidence: HIGH (on UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity; MEDIUM on precise figures for shot-down UAVs; LOW on veracity of some RUF claims; HIGH on new RUF legislative measures impacting conscription/mobilization; HIGH on ASTRA report of casualties and wage arrears).
International: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ reports on Chinese blocking Guam, which if true, signifies an increased level of international military tension in the Pacific. Kotsnews reports Russian MFA warned citizens about travel to Azerbaijan. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring a female spokesperson from the Russian MFA discussing relations. РБК-Україна reports "Лукашенко відпустив ще 16 людей після візиту Келлога" (Lukashenka released another 16 people after Kellogg's visit). This could be a diplomatic gesture by Belarus, possibly linked to its relationship with Russia or its internal political dynamics. ТАСС reports "Посол России в Азербайджане был вызван в МИД республики, сообщил азербайджанский МИД." (Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the republic, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported). ТАСС further reports "Вызванному в МИД Азербайджана послу РФ выражен протест в связи с недружественными шагами российской стороны, сообщил МИД республики." (Protest expressed to the Russian Ambassador summoned to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with unfriendly steps by the Russian side, the republic's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported). ТАСС also reports "От россиян в Азербайджане поступили жалобы на применение физического насилия, проверки документов, визиты неизвестных лиц, сообщили в пососольстве РФ." (Complaints received from Russians in Azerbaijan about physical violence, document checks, visits by unknown persons, reported the Russian Embassy). ТАСС reports "Азербайджан не ответил на ноты с требованием предоставить консульский доступ к арестованным россиянам, рассказали в посольстве РФ в Баку." (Azerbaijan has not responded to notes demanding consular access to arrested Russians, the Russian Embassy in Baku said). These collectively confirm a significant diplomatic spat between Russia and Azerbaijan, likely related to the ongoing arrests of Azerbaijanis in Russia. Военкор Котенок and Операция Z amplify these reports, confirming the narrative is being pushed by RUF-aligned sources. РБК-Україна reports "У Німеччині піймали росіян на пропаганді через інтернет-ЗМІ" (Russians caught in Germany on propaganda through online media). This indicates continued RUF information operations targeting European countries. Colonelcassad reports "Занимавшуюся похищениями нелегальных мигрантов банду граждан Украины ликвидировали в Польше, сообщает польское радио RFM." (A gang of Ukrainian citizens involved in abducting illegal migrants was liquidated in Poland, Polish radio RFM reports). This is likely an RUF information operation designed to discredit Ukrainian citizens and potentially sow discord between Ukraine and its EU partners. Rybar posts a video about crime statistics in the EU related to migrants, calling for stricter migration policies in Russia. This indicates a focus on internal Russian policy debates influenced by perceived European issues. TASS reports the mother of a Russian national detained in Baku (Safronov) considers the charges absurd, indicating continued public concern and diplomatic pressure. Confidence: HIGH (on most reports; LOW for unverified ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ claim).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest potential heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
Russia: North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" arrived in Moscow, bringing 3 days of rain and colder temperatures. Discernible earthquake in Kamchatka. Confidence: HIGH.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
MLCOA 1: Sustained High-Intensity Offensives in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
MLCOA 2: Increased Deep Strike Operations Across Ukraine.
MLCOA 3: Information Warfare Intensification and Border Area Probing.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA 1: Breakthrough and Encirclement on the Pokrovsk Axis.
MDCOA 2: Massed Combined Arms Offensive to Cross Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
MDCOA 3: Deliberate Escalation with Non-Conventional Means/Proxy Conflict.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
END OF REPORT
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