Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Claims of territorial gains, including Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Novonikolaevka are partially corroborated. RUF sources claim entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), reinforced by new RUF video. RUF forces are approximately 2.5 km from the suburbs of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours, with continued clashes near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Koptyeve, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. RUF video shows Grad MLRS strikes on a UAF stronghold in Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued high-intensity fires. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk, including an "unsuccessful attack by motorcyclists." UAF FPV strike on two RUF motorcyclists in the Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Yablunivka. RUF control over a portion of Toretsk's ruins is confirmed, but UAF continues successful defense. Capture of an RUF soldier on the Toretsk direction by UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade indicates active UAF defensive operations. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near". UAF General Staff confirms clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora. Russian forces have advanced into the Kanal microdistrict, establishing a foothold east of the canal. UAF units are conducting a tactical fighting withdrawal to more defensible, prepared positions on the western side. UAF drone footage shows strikes on trenches, fortified positions, and military vehicles in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar. RUF video shows a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount operating on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction. FPV drones of Russian forces are destroying UAF equipment and personnel on the outskirts of Konstantinovka. UAF sources confirm extensive destruction in Konstantinovka. UAF missile strike on Donetsk reported with smoke visible in the center and explosions. TASS confirmed at least 1 civilian death and 3 wounded from the strike on Donetsk. Mash na Donbasse videos show extensive damage to a marketplace or row of shops in Donetsk. ASTRA reports three RUF servicemen were wounded in yesterday's strike on Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation and threat of RUF strike UAVs (likely Shahed-type) in Donetsk Oblast. RUF video shows detailed drone reconnaissance footage of Ukrainian positions in Donbas, identifying "живая сила" (live force), "патч-антенна" (patch antenna), "система связи" (communication system), "минное поле" (minefield), "склад БК" (ammunition depot), and "дрон-ретранслятор" (drone type). This indicates advanced RUF ISR and targeting capabilities. RUF video shows a UAF International MaxxPro MRAP lost after allegedly hitting a mine and then being destroyed by FPV drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. Visual analysis of the video shows the vehicle losing control on a slope, overturning, and then catching fire, with no clear indication of a mine strike. FSB claims discovery of a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, possibly a false flag. RUF claims of UAF drones attacking a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR. RUF video shows a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Novoyekonomicheskoye. UAF sources report successful strikes and high RUF casualties during tactical assaults by ATVs/motorcyclists in the Donetsk direction. Continuous clashes yesterday near Myrolubivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Olhivske, Piddubne, Novopil, Malynivka, Verkhnya Tersa, Novoandriyivka (air strikes); and Pokrovsk direction (Rusyn Yar, Razine, Novotoretske, Myrne, Promin, Novoserhiyivka, Volodymyrivka, Myrolubivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Udachne, Muravka, Novopavlivka and Horikhove); Toretsk direction (Toretsk, Dyliyivka and Yablunivka). RUF video shows a strike in "Raiskoye" (Donetsk Oblast). RUF video displays aerial reconnaissance footage showing explosions and impacts in forested areas and near settlements. RUF video claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. RUF video shows a drone strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Raiskoye, DNR. UAF video shows a damaged UAF armored vehicle (likely a BMP) with a donation QR code. RUF forces assaulting Torske in the Lyman direction. RUF video claims a 155-mm 2C22 "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery unit was targeted and allegedly destroyed near Oktyabrskoye. UAF video shows a UAF strike targeting a Russian armored vehicle (tank or APC) with multiple direct hits. 9 captured Russian soldiers during an unsuccessful RUF assault on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating UAF defensive success. RUF video shows the aftermath of a missile strike in a residential area, with damaged buildings and a car. RUF video shows the destruction of an M113 APC in Kotlyarivka, DNR, claiming the death of the crew and infantry. Photos and video show destroyed military vehicles in a field near "Krasnoarmiysk - Kotlyarovka." Colonel Goryachkin, Chief of Staff of the 8th Guards Army, allegedly liquidated yesterday during a missile strike in Donetsk. ASTRA reports on the alleged killing of the acting commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army. RUF video shows a successful RUF strike on a UAF camouflaged structure/trench system. UAF captured a Russian Special Reconnaissance Knife. RUF claims counter-battery fire destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer. UAF AF reports KAB/KAR launches into Donetsk Oblast. RUF used an MT-LB with infantry, which was then repelled. RUF video shows a targeted strike on a group of UAF personnel. RUF photo indicates continued RUF focus on Konstantinovka axis. RUF military member openly admitted to mutilating captured Ukrainian snipers. Video shows a Russian T-72 tank equipped with enhanced protection and camouflage netting. UAF drone footage shows a successful UAF drone strike on an RUF soldier in a damaged urban environment. UAF video shows 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade artillery strikes on RUF positions. RUF propaganda video shows a reconnaissance drone targeting and destroying enemy positions, identified as "Hexapod" and "Robotic." RUF video shows destruction in a market area, likely the UAF strike on Donetsk market. UAF reports a successful strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Donetsk Oblast on 30 JUN. Losses are being clarified. RUF video (thermal imaging) from a drone identified as 'Baba Yaga VSU', targeting and identifying '44th Army Corps' and 'Northern Troop Grouping'. RUF "Special Report WG" titled "Targeting Chasov Yar: wild cannons of the Wild Division of Donbas." RUF photo message indicates continued focus on the Novopavlovsk direction. UAF FPV strike on a light utility vehicle. TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system strike on the "oil extraction plant" in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims breakthrough into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, with "further only fields, where UAF will be difficult to defend." RUF "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation," detailing territorial changes and combat activity. RUF "liberated" over 470 sq km of territory in June 2025. RUF reports on the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction. RUF video shows combat medical work from the 25th Army on the front line. RUF video shows the destruction of a UAF MaxxPro MRAP on the Krasnoarmiisk direction, dated 29 JUN 2025. RUF video shows the wreckage of a white drone with visible markings. RUF video depicts a burning military vehicle, likely a tank, with visible white triangular markings, indicating a successful UAF kinetic action. RUF video shows Russian AGS-17 Plamya automatic grenade launcher team providing fire support to motorized riflemen, with a suppressor attachment. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 06:00 02.07.2025. RUF "Два майора" provides a summary of the morning's events. RUF video "Бои в районе Каменского — разбор Рыбаря" details positional battles in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting Russian offensive actions towards Ocheretino and crossing the Yanchekrak river. RUF "Фронтовая сводка на утро 02.07.2025" (Frontline summary for morning 02.07.2025). Russian attack on a UAF evacuation group carrying wounded civilians in Pokrovsk. RUF video claims destruction of UAF temporary deployment point of the 36th Marine Brigade with a loitering munition near Yablonovka, south of Konstantinovka. Оперативний ЗСУ photo message from SBU about an FSB agent exposed for helping prepare shelling of Cherkasy Oblast. This indicates continued Russian attempts to conduct intelligence operations deep within Ukraine. Mash na Donbasse photo message regarding an Estonian citizen accused of abusing and burning property of an LNR resident. This is likely an RUF information operation to discredit Estonian citizens and sow internal discord. Два майора video showing an armored vehicle on the Crimean coast ("На Крымских берегах"). This suggests RUF presence and military activity in Crimea. NEW: Басурин о главном video shows wreckage of a drone, likely loitering munition, with grenade payload. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Colonelcassad video (thermal imaging) shows successful RUF strike on UAF infantry in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. NEW: The UAF General Staff issued a statement at 09:07Z denying Russian success in crossing the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. They state that any small reconnaissance groups that managed to penetrate were destroyed. This directly contradicts previous RUF claims of taking Dachne. Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, MEDIUM for specific unverified territorial control/BDA, LOW for RUF veracity)
Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka). RUF claims regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR." RUF sources later corrected, stating two more villages near the border need to be cleared. UAF drone attack on Luhansk confirmed, causing fires and active RUF air defense. TASS reports over 20 UAVs flew over Luhansk. RUF conducted a combined strike to disrupt UAF rotation near Nadiya. RUF claims UAF were "knocked out" from the majority of positions on the heights near Bilohorivka. TASS claims 35 UAVs shot down over LNR, debris fell on a fuel depot, and one civilian woman was wounded. Janus Putkonen claims Luhansk is completely liberated by RUF. Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, LOW for unverified RUF territorial claims)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF attacked Nikopol district overnight with heavy artillery and FPV drones; 12 RUF UAVs were shot down. 4 civilians wounded in Nikopol due to FPV drone attack. RUF claims strikes on railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed Shahed attack on a military enlistment office (TCC), with 3 civilians wounded. Situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled. RUF claims 114th Brigade "liberated" Dachne (Udachne?), with supporting video evidence. This specific claim of "liberation" of Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is new. UAF Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) claims Russians did not break through to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with battles ongoing near the administrative border. UAF sources confirm overnight RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities in Synelnykivskyi district. RUF channel "Операция Z" claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." UAF AF reports a high-speed target in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving towards Kryvyi Rih. UAF AD successfully destroyed a RUF UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire and civilian casualties (killed and wounded), including agricultural infrastructure damage. As of morning July 1, there were no Russian troops in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, but a significant threat remains. RUF video shows Russian forces raising their flag in Chernovaya Zirka, DNR, near the Dnipropetrovsk border. RUF map indicates continued RUF focus on the Dnipropetrovsk (Novopavlovsk) direction. UAF civil-military coordination for humanitarian and defensive operations is ongoing in Synelnykivskyi district. UAF General Staff operational picture for the Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). UAF General Staff operational picture for the Pokrovsk Direction. UAF video features Ukrainian soldiers discussing high attrition rates. Colonel Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, confirmed dead in Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF propaganda frames Zelensky's statement about no RUF presence in Dnipropetrovsk as a lie. UAF video suggests a successful UAF strike or engagement against an RUF position. RUF UAVs on northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course northern. 2 Shahed drones flying to Kryvyi Rih. RUF directed UAVs at Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight, with 8 drones shot down. Situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 02.07.25. SHARP INCREASE in RUF claims of FPV drone attacks on civilians in Nikopol. Video showing RUF presence in Dachnoye (Dachne), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including flag raising and inspection of buildings. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos/videos show RUF capturing Dachne and raising Russian flag. NEW: Басурин о главном video shows wreckage of a drone, likely loitering munition, with grenade payload. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Colonelcassad video (thermal imaging) shows successful RUF strike on UAF infantry in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. NEW: STERNENKO reports RUF forces have indeed entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and shows drone footage of an RUF dugout in Dachne, contradicting the UAF General Staff's previous denial to RBC-Ukraine. STERNENKO's latest message at 09:13Z re-confirms the "kamikaze entry" into Dachne. NEW: UAF General Staff, at 09:07Z, issued a statement contradicting RUF claims, stating that any small reconnaissance groups that managed to penetrate the administrative border were destroyed. They re-emphasize their denial at 09:11Z and RBC-Ukraine reports the UAF General Staff's denial at 09:20Z. This creates a direct and immediate intelligence contradiction that requires further collection. Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, and RUF claims of presence in Dachne; MEDIUM on verified RUF control of Dachne given UAF denials; CRITICAL intelligence contradiction regarding broader RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states Russian troops advance in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. UAF General Staff reports repelling 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF drone footage shows State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (ДПСУ) units "Prime" destroying enemy targets in the Kursk direction. RUF sources claim liquidation of Colonel Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, in Sumy Oblast. RUF is conducting KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast. Konotop: MoD Russia claims "Geran-2 UAVs destroyed a temporary deployment area of the AFU 58th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and a UAV depot." UAF drone footage shows several deceased Russian soldiers in a "demilitarized buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims a company of UAF soldiers was destroyed in Yunakivka. RUF claims a fight near Tyotkino with Russian paratroopers storming positions. RUF claims repelled UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. RUF video shows an aerial strike near Andreyevka, Sumy direction. RUF claims forces continue to dislodge UAF from Ridkodub on the Krasnolimansk direction. GUR reports identifying Russian military personnel involved in June 3rd missile strike on Sumy. UAF General Staff publishes a map showing the frontline in Sumy Oblast for the first time since February. UAF AF warns of UAV threat to Sumy Oblast. UAF video shows thermal imaging footage targeting RUF logistics at night. MoD Russia video claims use of Uran-6 robotic complex for mine clearance in Kursk region. RUF sources republished a map from the UAF General Staff, portraying it as "the first 'truth map' from the AFU General Staff with the successes of the Russian army" in the Sumy direction. UAF AF reports multiple UAV groups on the north of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, moving predominantly southwest. RUF Msta-S howitzer crew destroyed UAF fortified positions and personnel near Yunakivka. UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. RUF FPV drone from the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment captured a direct hit by an artillery shell destroying a UAF dugout. RUF security forces claim Ukrainian military personnel are contacting RUF to surrender in Sumy Oblast. UAF counterattacked in the Sumy direction. RUF "Tactical Analysis of Sumy Direction Map (July 2, 2025)." NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy is training UAV crews in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition at 09:21Z released a video showing drone reconnaissance and an explosion near "Sumi border area," implying continued RUF ISR and kinetic operations there. Confidence: HIGH (on stabilized front line, UAF defensive successes, and ongoing RUF KAB/drone activity; MEDIUM on claimed HVT loss; HIGH on RUF intelligence claims of UAF drone training).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman) and ground clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Stroyivka and towards Kutkivka, and Kupyansk direction near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zelenyi Hai. Vovchansk: RUF video confirms a TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system strike on the "butter extraction plant." Pisochyn: 8 people injured, including one child, from RUF drone attack. Korotych airfield: RUF claims strike on airfield. UAF Air Force warns of UAV threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports 3 settlements subjected to enemy strikes. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe, Dovhenke and towards Petro-Ivanivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and Holubivka, Pischane and towards Novoosynove (Kupyansk direction). UAF 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade is undergoing a "Psychological obstacle course" training. RUF photo message indicates continued offensive intent towards Konstantinovka. Kharkiv experienced a record number of Russian air attacks in June 2025. RUF photos from the Kupyansk direction imply ongoing combat actions. RUF video shows the destruction of a UAF L-119 howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. Video focuses on the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of Ukraine, showing training and operational realities. RUF video requests drone detectors and medical kits for participants on the Kharkiv front. Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration discusses organization of educational process. Photo and video of a fragment of a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet (RF-81771) shot down in Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims forces have secured positions near Kondrashovka and occupied approximately 3 hectares near Petropavlovka. RUF claims security forces destroyed Ukrainian National Guard "Khartiya" brigade officers in Liptsy. Hostile UAV detected over Kharkiv. Explosion in Kharkiv, city under drone attack. Explosion in Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv. One-story non-residential building on fire in Novobavarskyi district. Fire in Novobavarskyi district from enemy UAV. UPDATED: Fire in car service boxes in Novobavarskyi district. KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. Broken windows in adjacent houses in Kharkiv. Consequences of enemy UAV attack on Kupiansk district. One person killed, one wounded in Kharkiv Oblast from night attacks. Fire localized in Novobavarskyi district. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions on targets in Kharkiv. Video footage of the aftermath of a Geran-2 UAV strike in Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv. Consequences of Russian attack on Kharkiv and Kupiansk district. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on the development of adaptive sports in the region. NEW: Colonelcassad video (thermal imaging) shows successful RUF strike on UAF infantry in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy is training UAV crews in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a collection appeal for assault detachments fighting in the Vovchansk direction. Confidence: HIGH (on airstrikes, ground clashes, civilian casualties, and continued RUF offensive intent; HIGH on RUF intelligence regarding UAF drone training; HIGH on RUF volunteer fundraising for combat operations).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. Battles for Kamyanske are in full swing. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske, and near Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). Kadyrovites (Chechen special forces) are being prepared for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with approximately 15 military trucks moving them to Enerhodar / Melitopol / Vasylivka area. RUF attack on an agricultural enterprise in Polohy district. Civilian vehicle engulfed in flames in Zaporizhzhia after a Russian attack. RUF launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district. A 56-year-old man was wounded in Polohy district. Complex night in Zaporizhzhia, with one district subjected to Shahed drone attacks. Over 400 shellings across the region, with 4 drones hitting an industrial enterprise and one Shahed hitting a residential area. RUF channel reports artillery of the 35th Army continues to work on "planned targets" in the Polohy direction. Two people wounded from an enemy attack on Polohy district. 3 men and 1 woman injured in Vasylivka and Polohy districts. RUF posts multiple photos and videos confirming a night strike by "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. RUF video from Zaporizhzhia Front, soldiers appealing for material and technical assistance. UAF operational information as of 08:00 (local time) and photos confirming UAF strikes on enemy locations. Traffic restored on H. 55th Brigade Street and Krugovaya Street. Two energy workers with contusions, a damaged high-voltage power line, and some settlements without light and communication after an enemy attack on Stepnohirska community. Aftermath of a "treacherous night attack" on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Power restored to affected consumers. Clashes yesterday near Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction), Malynivka (Huliaipole direction), and Zaporizhzhya, Komar, Perebudova, Piddubne, Fedorivka, Shevchenko, Novopil (Novopavlivka direction). Zelenskiy / Official and UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirm signing documents for the ratification of the Agreement on the creation of a Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence officers re-blocking a railway section in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF munition strike on personnel in a wooded, hilly area. 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade damaging a RUF 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar system on the Zaporizhzhia direction. RUF photos indicate continued RUF focus on the Novopavlivka direction. RUF source denies a UAF claim of a strike on a "DK" (cultural center) in Huliaipole. Missile threat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF video claims drone operators of the 35th Army continue to work on "planned targets" near Chervone (Huliaipole direction). Colonel Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, killed in Huliaipole. RUF reports strike on the 110th Brigade in Huliaipole, claiming the death of the brigade commander and other officers. UAV threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation towards Zaporizhzhia. RUF video regarding the Zaporizhzhia Front, with accompanying text "Снились мне братья Алиевы...". Graphic titled "An object of the military-industrial complex of the Russian occupiers was hit," confirming a UAF strike. RUF video confirms "Planned work of the 35th Army artillery in the Polohy direction." Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an alert. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on children from the front-line Tavriiska community recovering in Kirovohrad Oblast. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України at 09:25Z shared a video of "destruction of the enemy in Zaporizhzhia!", confirming continued UAF kinetic action. Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, artillery activity, and Kadyrovite buildup; LOW on verified RUF control of Kamyanske; HIGH on civilian support and resilience efforts).
Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF photos indicate continued presence and focus. UAF posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling. RUF shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing one man and wounding another. A hospital in Kherson was attacked by RUF artillery yesterday around 23:00, resulting in 5 wounded patients and 3 wounded nurses. RUF claims "Dnipro" grouping artillery destroyed a UAF Grad MLRS. Missile danger in Kherson Oblast. RUF image of an artillery shell on the Kherson direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report RUF artillery strike on medical facility in Kherson. Confidence: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. 14 Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD. Odesa Coastal Logistics/Oil Refinery: RUF reports a "powerful strike and huge fire" at an enemy object near Odesa, with video evidence. TASS reports RUF struck an oil terminal supplying fuel to the Ukrainian Navy. NASA satellite data corroborates fires in the area of grain and fuel terminals. UAF Naval Forces report no Russian naval presence in Black Sea, 2 ships in Azov, 1 in Mediterranean (no missile carriers). UAF video shows destruction of an "aerial target (Geran)" over Odesa. Explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27, citing GUR. UAF Naval Forces rowing competitions in Odesa. RUF reports discovery of "Geranium" UAV debris in Odesa with unusual two-letter tail numbers. RUF drone attacks on Izmail district damaged port and tourist infrastructure. UAV in the Black Sea moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Update on remaining Shahed drones. NEW: Два майора reports results of a strike on Vilkovo, Odesa Oblast, with accompanying photo of damage. Confidence: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure. RUF claims destroyed Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv. RUF claims destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka. Shahed drones are "minus" (destroyed) everywhere. Astra reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 114 drones and 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH (on attacks and civilian impacts; MEDIUM on specific RUF BDA claims).
Kyiv Oblast: Massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles passing Slavutych towards Kyiv. UAF AD was operating effectively. Two UAF Air Force pilots, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko and Oleksiy "Moonfish" Mes, killed while repelling the attack. UAF General Staff confirmed a massed missile-drone attack with over 500 air targets launched and 475 targets neutralized, with an additional 226 suppressed by EW. Ukrainian UAV manufacturer founder warns Kyiv may become "most vulnerable and dangerous" due to critical air defense deficit. KVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) posts a memorial graphic for a fallen soldier. Syrskyi states basic general training will be increased from 49 to 51 days, with two additional days for training against enemy strike UAVs. UAF General Staff posts photos from a meeting regarding countering Russian strike UAVs. RUF propaganda claims Kyiv will become the "most undefended and dangerous city." Yuriy Butusov discusses importance of strong defense line and criticizes lack of fortified positions. Офіс Генерального прокурора informs 9 RUF servicemen of suspicion for brutal treatment of civilians in Kyiv Oblast. Air raid alert for Kyiv. Ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast. KVA complains about lack of modular shelters despite 3.5 years of war. Zelenskiy signed documents for the ratification of the Agreement on the creation of a Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a group manufacturing counterfeit foreign currency in Kyiv Oblast. KVA provides information on community safety. KVA acknowledges the 33rd anniversary of the 22nd National Guard Brigade "Kyiv Rus'." Moscow testing AI system to recognize fights, weapons, and fires in crowds. KVA posts a video of a boy receiving an award. Ballistic missile threat to oblasts clear. Kyiv police detained a taxi driver who allegedly assaulted Tonya Matviyenko, a Ukrainian artist. РБК-Україна reports a man was detained in Kyiv for shooting at a veteran's car. This indicates a domestic law enforcement incident rather than military. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a criminal organization involved in mass counterfeiting of documents. Confidence: HIGH.
Cherkasy Oblast: RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to three nine-story buildings and a college. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. UAF AF reports a high-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Оперативний ЗСУ photo message from SBU about an FSB agent exposed for helping prepare shelling of Cherkasy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports SBU exposed a 20-year-old student preparing new strikes on Cherkasy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
Poltava Oblast:Kremenchug: RUF video confirms a successful strike on the Kremenchug oil refinery. UAV groups are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast, heading south. Strike UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a prosecutor has sent an indictment to court regarding Poltava customs officials, whose actions allegedly prevented over 17 million UAH from reaching the budget. Confidence: HIGH (on strikes and UAV activity; HIGH on UAF internal anti-corruption efforts).
Lviv Oblast:Drohobych: RUF video shows multiple missile/drone impacts and explosions at a refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast. Freight train derailed in Rivne Oblast. Discovery of cluster munitions after an RUF attack in Lviv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
Russian Territory (Saratov / Engels / Ulyanovsk / Rostov Oblast / Kazan / Kursk / Nizhnekamsk / Izhevsk / Nizhny Novgorod Oblast / Khabarovsk Krai):Saratov/Engels: Explosions and sirens reported. Three drones fell on the territory of the Saratov oil refinery this morning. Ulyanovsk: Temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. Rostov: RUF Air Defense destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts of Rostov Oblast. Kazan: Temporary flight restrictions imposed at Kazan airport. Nizhnekamsk: Nizhnekamsk Airport suspended operations. Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports in Tatarstan implemented "Kover" plan (air defense alert). RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. ASTRA reports 5 UAVs shot down over RF and annexed Crimea overnight. Saratov airport lifted flight restrictions. Izhevsk: Temporary flight restrictions at Izhevsk airport. Drone attack on a military enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol" (produces Tor and Osa AD systems and drones for RUF army). Confirmed by SBU and UAF General Staff. Personnel evacuated, firefighters extinguishing fires. At least 9 people injured, rising to 45 injured, 3 killed, 35 hospitalized, 10 critical. Izhevsk airport lifted restrictions. Crimea: UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacked Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. Flight restrictions at Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk airports lifted. Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: An Su-34 fighter jet crashed. Navigator died. Pilots ejected. Main landing gear malfunction. Saratov oil refinery: UAF General Staff officially confirmed attack. RUF special forces "поражают позиции, технику и дроны украинских боевиков" (hitting positions, equipment, and drones of Ukrainian militants). US stopped supplying Kyiv with Patriot air defense missiles, Hellfire missiles, and other high-precision artillery ammunition. White House Press Secretary Anna Kelly stated the US stopped supplying some weapons to Ukraine. House fire due to UAF attacks in Lygov, Kursk Oblast, no casualties. Widows of deceased Colombian mercenaries contact Russian chat-bots. Illegal enrichment scheme among medical staff in Primorye. Sentencing in Khabarovsk for illegal weapons and explosives trafficking. Former Skolkovo resident sentenced for fraud and weapons manufacturing. Actor Vitaly Gogunsky sentenced in absentia in Ukraine to 12 years. Average pension in RF in May was 23.4 thousand rubles. High demand for Schengen visas among Russians. Azerbaijan plans to close Russian-language schools. Earthquake in Kamchatka. London and Berlin will sign a mutual defense pact. Head of Azerbaijani diaspora in Ural, Shahin Shikhlinsky, released after questioning. Russian security forces detained a resident of Kerch for justifying UAF drone attacks on the Kremlin. TASS reports a court sentenced Burdin, co-founder of "Smyslovye Gallyutsinatsii" group, to 3 years for causing grievous bodily harm. TASS reports Iranian FM claims Iranian nuclear facilities were seriously damaged by US strikes. This indicates a potential regional escalation with wider geopolitical implications, but not directly related to the Ukraine conflict. TASS reports Paramount to pay $16 million to settle Trump lawsuit. This is a domestic US legal matter, no military significance. Рыбарь video discussing "foreign ideology" in Kazakhstan border areas. This is part of RUF's ongoing information operations to counter perceived Western influence in former Soviet states. Операция Z reports Iran preparing to mine Hormuz Strait. Воин DV reports on the "Feat of Ivan Mikhailov," likely a RUF propaganda piece. Полиция Хабаровского края posts civilian-oriented news (cat exhibition), no military relevance. Новости Москвы reports on mushroom yield and dog-friendliness, no military relevance. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Budanov's statement on paralyzed Black Sea Fleet and pressured aviation, also that one of two CRPA antenna developers for Shaheds is dead. ASTRA reports Iran suspended cooperation with IAEA. NEW: TASS reports Ministry of Industry and Trade believes it is necessary to legislatively fix a 50% share of Russian aircraft in the fleets of Russian airlines. NEW: Alex Parker Returns reports on the deportation of an Azerbaijani minor and his family from Russia after a fight. NEW: Операция Z reports FSB has thwarted two anti-Russian activities in the south of the country, involving apprehension of a civilian by military personnel. NEW: TASS reports that the Federation Council has approved a law introducing a fine of up to 20,000 rubles for failing to inform the military enlistment office about a relocation to a new place of residence. NEW: ASTRA at 09:23Z reports on the former head of Kalmykia and ex-FIDE president Kirsan Ilyumzhinov visiting Washington to meet Trump after US sanctions were lifted. This is a significant diplomatic development for Russia, potentially indicating cracks in US sanctions regime or new avenues for influence. NEW: Kotsnews at 09:24Z reports on the alleged kidnapping and torture of a Russian citizen in Thailand, potentially generating anti-Western or anti-foreign sentiment. Confidence: HIGH (on UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity; MEDIUM on precise figures for shot-down UAVs; LOW on veracity of some RUF claims; HIGH on new RUF legislative measures impacting conscription/mobilization).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest potential heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
Russia: North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" arrived in Moscow, bringing 3 days of rain and colder temperatures. Discernible earthquake in Kamchatka. Новости Москвы reports mushroom yield will decrease in Moscow Oblast due to weather. Confidence: HIGH.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RUF Dispositions:
Donetsk: High-intensity offensive continues on Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Confirmed presence of units from the "Center" and "Vostok" groups, 30th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, and VDV (98th Guards Airborne Division confirmed in Chasiv Yar, 247th Air Assault Regiment). TASS reports the "Vostok" grouping destroyed 17 UAV control points and advanced in Zeleny Pol, Novod Rozv, and Vesele areas, claiming destruction of two APCs, two BMPs, one MT-LB, and one artillery piece. Confidence: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia: Kadyrovite (Chechen special forces) transfer to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area with 15 military trucks indicates a significant buildup for potential assault operations. Confidence: HIGH.
ASTRA reports five Su-34 fighter jets were damaged in a UAV attack on a military airfield in Volgograd Oblast on June 27. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows operators of RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroying a truck with a UAF anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF channel shows personnel loading cruise missiles on wheeled carts at an airfield. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows a Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter in flight. Confidence: HIGH.
MoD Russia video shows Zapad Group of Forces’ Giatsint-B towed gun crews eliminating ammunition depots and military personnel. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators targeting enemy vehicles and communication systems in the Shakhtyorsk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
MoD Russia video claims mobile air surveillance post crews from the Tsentr Group of Forces are destroying dozens of enemy UAVs. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
TASS reports Russian air defense shot down three Storm Shadow missiles, three HIMARS projectiles, and 173 UAVs in the last 24 hours. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video implies "Geranium" production has increased for direct front-line use. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows soldiers in a wooded area with sniper rifles. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video of "Chronology of changes in the LBS and liberation of territory by the 'Vostok' group in the South-Donetsk direction." Confidence: HIGH.
MoD Russia posts multiple photos displaying various military decorations and awards. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF sources celebrate "Veterans of Combat Operations Day." Confidence: HIGH.
RUF videos showing military activity and Russian flags, claiming "Rubikon" continues massive strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows Spetsnaz in forest terrain. Confidence: HIGH.
MoD Russia video shows an AGS-17 Plamya automatic grenade launcher unit used to support motorized riflemen. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video of a collection for 200 motorcycles for the 'Narodny Front' in Rostov Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video appeals for donations for Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones, food, and communication equipment for "paratroopers." Confidence: HIGH.
RUF posts a scanned decree recognizing the 36th Combined Arms Army as a "Guards" unit. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows an FPV drone from the "Rubikon" unit destroying a UAF MaxxPro armored vehicle in Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows various scenes of Russian soldiers, military vehicles, drones, and artillery fire. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF propaganda asks if "AFU terrorist attacks can break the spirit of the Russian soldier?" Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows detailed vehicle maintenance/repair. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video of a communal tractor driver performing a "drift." Confidence: HIGH.
TASS reports Lukashenka's statement about "Oreshnik" deployment in Belarus by year-end. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video shows the delivery of sports equipment to a children's sports school in Ilovaisk. Confidence: HIGH.
TASS reports Lukashenka informed US Special Envoy Kellogg about Putin's position on a settlement. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a summary of the day's events. Confidence: HIGH.
MoD Russia posted a daily figure image (likely a propaganda infographic on daily UAF losses). Confidence: HIGH.
MoD Russia has published a "Top News Today" collage. Confidence: HIGH.
UAF AF reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on northeastern directions. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video of a serviceman released from Ukrainian captivity recounting alleged mistreatment. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF propaganda); LOW (on veracity of claims).
TASS reports "High-Precision Systems" holding shipped a new batch of BMP-3s to the Ministry of Defense. Confidence: HIGH.
UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" video demonstrates UAF counter-UAS capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF is actively recruiting for the "African Corps," indicating continued intent to deploy foreign/mercenary forces, potentially in Africa or involving African personnel in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) is appealing for donations to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS to counter UAF drones and for combat missions, indicating a reliance on public funding for heavy equipment and a perceived need for enhanced counter-UAS capabilities beyond existing systems. Confidence: HIGH.
TASS video reports "Geran-2 UAV operators destroyed a temporary deployment point of the AFU in Yablonovka." This confirms continued RUF use of Shahed drones for tactical strikes on UAF positions. Confidence: HIGH.
Воин DV video shows drone strikes on UAF personnel and vehicles by the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, confirming continued RUF special forces operations utilizing drone assets for precision strikes and BDA. Confidence: HIGH.
Colonelcassad video shows Russian "frontline artists" performing for soldiers, highlighting ongoing RUF efforts to boost morale through entertainment and cultural engagement. Confidence: HIGH.
Басурин о главном video shows Russian MoD footage demonstrating "precision strikes" by RUF artillery, indicating continued confidence in and reliance on their artillery capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
Операция Z video from Russian Military Correspondents "Russian Spring" claims artillery is conducting precision strikes on command points, with footage of artillery crew and aerial impacts in Krasnoarmiiskoye and Kherson Oblast directions. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF "Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺" reports on Russian Federation strikes on enemy territory. Confidence: HIGH.
Rybar's morning summary ("#Сводка на утро 2 июля 2025 года") provides an overall RUF assessment of the operational picture. Confidence: HIGH.
Два майора video (02/07:02:13) shows RUF forces operating on the Zaporizhzhia front, with a focus on ground-level military activity, likely infantry and light vehicle movements. This confirms continued RUF ground presence and operations in the sector. Confidence: HIGH.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (02/07:03:01) depicts Russian combat medics from the 25th Army working on the front line. This highlights ongoing medical support for RUF forces and efforts to maintain troop readiness despite casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
Басурин о главном photo message (02/07:03:02) with the caption "МЫ ВСЕ ПРОСРАЛИ!" (We have lost everything!) is a highly unusual and potentially disruptive internal message, if genuine. It could be a sarcastic statement, a false flag, or an indication of deep internal frustration. Confidence: LOW (on literal meaning); HIGH (on presence and intent to cause internal effect).
Глеб Никитин video/text message (02/07:03:37-38) from Nizhny Novgorod promoting financial literacy and local events. Confidence: HIGH (on source provenance and content); LOW (on military relevance). This is a RUF-aligned local government initiative, signaling efforts to maintain domestic stability and economic normalcy.
Kotsnews video (02/07:06:00-01) titled "Hunters for drone operators" showing a pickup truck being attacked, possibly transporting military supplies. Confidence: HIGH (on content and RUF perspective of UAF action). This indicates RUF is highlighting their losses to UAF drone attacks and framing UAF as "hunters."
Colonelcassad photo message (02/07:06:14-15) showing "Radon-O" anti-drone complex. Confidence: HIGH (on new equipment showcase). This indicates RUF is actively developing and deploying new counter-UAS systems.
Alex Parker Returns photo message (02/07:08:56-57) with caption "Без перефорса никуда. И так у них всегда." (No going overboard. And that's how it always is with them.) along with an illustration. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF critical commentary). This is a satirical RUF commentary, likely aimed at mocking perceived incompetence or excessive actions of an unspecified opposing side or internal element.
Alex Parker Returns video (02/07:13:11-12) titled "Новинка! Складник БАК!" (New! BAK component!) showing folding knives in a workshop. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF showcasing potential new equipment). This might indicate the production of specialized military or paramilitary knives for RUF forces. "БАК" (BAK) could refer to a "Battle Knife" or a component of a larger "Battle Kit."
Север.Реалии photo message (02/07:15:17-18) reporting the installation of a third monument to Stalin in Vologda Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on domestic social development). This is a domestic social development indicating continued historical revisionism and authoritarian trends within Russia.
WarGonzo video (02/07:15:50) celebrating the effectiveness of the "Volunteer Corps." Confidence: HIGH (on RUF propaganda). This is a morale-boosting video promoting RUF volunteer formations.
Два майора video showing an armored vehicle on the Crimean coast indicates continued RUF presence and military activity in Crimea, potentially for training or force projection. Confidence: HIGH.
Оперативний ЗСУ video showing unique training against FPV drones confirms UAF is adapting to the persistent threat. Confidence: HIGH.
RUF video (02/07:07:31:02) from Операция Z shows a strike on a building, implying continued use of aerial bombardment tactics. Confidence: HIGH.
Colonelcassad video (02/07:07:32:37) shows a UAF MaxxPro being hit by an FPV drone in Pisarevka, Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone effectiveness against UAF armored vehicles. Confidence: HIGH.
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports (02/07:07:36:48) on a new combined strike by RUF on enemy military objects, specifically logistics hubs, confirming a continued focus on disrupting UAF supply lines. Confidence: HIGH.
Два майора video (02/07:07:37:07) provides an analysis of battles in Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Front) by Rybar, reinforcing RUF's focus on this axis. Confidence: HIGH.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (02/07:07:46:01) shows drone footage of impacts in mountainous terrain, indicating continued RUF drone reconnaissance and targeting. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Andriyivka, Varachyne, Krovne, Kindrativka of Sumy region, Vilkhuvatka, Zybyne of Kharkiv region, Filiya of Dnipropetrovsk region, Sukhyy Yar of Donetsk region, Olhivske, Malynivka, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirsk of Zaporizhzhia region, Olhivka of Kherson region. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Milove, Kamyanka, Hlyboke and towards Ambarne. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Kupyansk direction near Radkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Senkivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyy Hay and towards Novoosynove. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Kopanky, Novyy Myr, Serednye, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Novovodyane, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Myrne and towards Serebryanka. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Sieversk direction near Bilohorivka and towards Hryhorivka and Vyyimka. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Kramatorsk direction near Chasiv Yar. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Toretsk direction near Leonidivka and Toretsk. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Myrne, Popiv Yar, Koptyeve, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. Confidence: HIGH.
Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday at Novopavlivka direction near Perebudova, Piddubne, Vesele, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and Novopil. Confidence: HIGH.
NEW: Colonelcassad video indicates RUF 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (omsbr) detected and destroyed a UAF reconnaissance and sabotage group (DRG) in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the enemy is training UAV crews in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a collection appeal for assault detachments fighting in the Vovchansk direction, indicating RUF is sustaining offensive operations through volunteer support. NEW: Colonelcassad at 09:01Z posted a video appealing for donations for "assault troops," showing five soldiers with 'Z' symbols, indicating continued RUF reliance on volunteer funding for combat sustainment. NEW: Воин DV at 09:12Z posted a video showing "Sakhalin warriors" providing aid to civilians in "liberated settlements" of DNR, confirming RUF humanitarian aid operations in occupied territories, likely for influence. NEW: Сливочный каприз at 09:12Z posted a "summary of combat operations from June 27-30," which is a RUF operational update likely aimed at internal consumption, projecting control and progress. Confidence: HIGH.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Ground Offensive: Demonstrated capability for sustained high-intensity ground assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, and in Chasiv Yar, utilizing combined arms tactics (infantry, armor, artillery, air support). Observed use of MT-LBs with infantry in assault, suggesting adaptation to high casualties among light assault groups. Confirmed use of Grad MLRS in the Pokrovsk direction. TASS reports advances by "Vostok" grouping in Zeleny Pol, Novod Rozv, and Vesele areas, claiming destruction of two APCs, two BMPs, one MT-LB, and one artillery piece. Colonelcassad posts photos showing a "Grad" MLRS from the "Center" group in action, indicating continued heavy fire support on the Pokrovsk axis. Операция Z video (02/06:29:02) confirms RUF artillery operations against UAF command points in Krasnoarmiiskoye and Kherson Oblast directions. Confidence: HIGH.
Air-Dropped Ordnance: Continued extensive use of FABs with UMPK glide kits, indicating robust tactical aviation support for ground operations. Russian tactical aviation (Su-34s) active in the northeastern directions. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02/06:21:06) reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. New launch reports of KABs into Sumy Oblast (02/07:07:32:01) confirm this ongoing threat. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
UAV Operations: Highly developed and integrated UAV capabilities for ISR, FPV strikes, and deep strikes (Shahed/Geranium). Reports of a new "Chernika" drone in Kharkiv. Deployment of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV with a dual machine gun mount on the Pokrovsk direction. Claimed increased production of Geranium drones suggests intent for wider deployment, potentially shifting to frontline tactical use. New drone footage from Odesa with "unusual" tail numbers on Geranium debris suggests potential new variants or tracking methods. RUF is also showcasing the DJI Flycart 100, indicating an interest in heavy-lift drones. TASS claims the "Vostok" grouping destroyed 17 UAV control points, indicating continued RUF counter-UAS capabilities. The reported first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions in Kharkiv, if verified, signifies continued RUF innovation and deployment of new drone types. Kotsnews video (02/07:06:00-01) highlighting UAF drone attacks on RUF vehicles and drone hunters indicates RUF's ongoing efforts to counter and adapt to UAF drone tactics. The "Radon-O" anti-drone complex, showcased by Colonelcassad (02/07:06:14-15), indicates RUF's ongoing efforts to enhance counter-UAS capabilities. NEW: Басурин о главном video shows wreckage of a drone, likely loitering munition, with grenade payload, indicating continued RUF use of such systems. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition at 09:21Z released a video showing drone reconnaissance over "Sumi border area," confirming continued RUF ISR capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
EW: Sophisticated and widespread EW capabilities, significantly impacting UAF C2 and ISR. Confidence: HIGH.
Precision Strikes: Demonstrated capability for long-range precision strikes against critical infrastructure and military targets across Ukraine, including industrial enterprises (Izhevsk, Zaporizhzhia), fuel depots (Luhansk, Odesa, Kremenchug, Drohobych), and military recruitment centers. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video (02/06:19:28) shows RUF using loitering munitions to destroy a temporary deployment point of the 36th Marine Brigade. The new combined strike on logistics hubs (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, 02/07:07:36:48) further confirms this capability. Confidence: HIGH.
Special Forces: Active Spetsnaz operations targeting UAF logistics and C2, as well as reconnaissance and appeals for donations. NEW: Colonelcassad video indicates RUF 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade detected and destroyed a UAF reconnaissance and sabotage group (DRG) in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
New Weapon Systems: Stated intent to deploy "Oreshnik" (new weapon system) in Belarus by year-end indicates ongoing development and deployment of advanced capabilities, potentially impacting the regional balance. Confidence: HIGH.
River Crossing Disruption: Demonstrated capability to strike and disrupt enemy river crossings using high-precision missiles (Kh-38). Confidence: HIGH.
Mine Clearance: Demonstrated capability to use robotic complexes (Uran-6) for mine clearance in border areas. Confidence: HIGH.
Budanov's report that Russia has transferred Shahed production technology to North Korea and ready-made Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile systems indicates a deepening of military-technical cooperation with DPRK, which could enhance North Korea's own capabilities and potentially free up Russian resources for the Ukraine conflict or other fronts. Confidence: HIGH.
Воин DV: Артиллерия 29 гвардейской армии работает по выявленным целям в районе междуречья. [Video message - thermal imaging footage, targeting reticle over a river landscape with heat signatures, indicating RUF artillery activity and targeting]. Confidence: HIGH.
New Armored Vehicle Deliveries: "High-Precision Systems" (Rostec subsidiary) has shipped a new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to the MoD, indicating ongoing production and integration of new equipment. Confidence: HIGH.
New Weapon Systems (AGS-17 Suppressor): Demonstrated tactical enhancement of AGS-17 automatic grenade launchers with suppressors, indicating a focus on improved stealth for small arms and crew-served weapons. Confidence: HIGH.
New Capability (African Corps Recruitment): Recruitment for the "African Corps" signals RUF's intent to diversify its combat personnel, potentially drawing from African nations or deploying to African theaters. Confidence: HIGH.
New Capability (Publicly Funded Grad MLRS): The appeal for funds to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS suggests a capability gap being addressed through public funding, which, if successful, can still provide significant fire support. Confidence: HIGH.
ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH.
New Observation (Combat Medical Support): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (02/07:03:01) shows RUF combat medics operating on the front line, confirming RUF capability to provide medical support in forward areas, crucial for maintaining morale and combat effectiveness. Confidence: HIGH.
New Capability (Specialized Knives): The Alex Parker Returns video (02/07:13:11-12) showcasing "BAK component" folding knives implies RUF's intention to provide specialized close-combat tools, indicating a focus on infantry combat. Confidence: HIGH.
Оперативний ЗСУ video showing unique training against FPV drones. This implies RUF is developing and refining tactics for using FPV drones, requiring UAF to adapt counter-measures. Confidence: HIGH.
NEW: TASS reports that the Federation Council has approved a law introducing a fine of up to 20,000 rubles for failing to inform the military enlistment office about a relocation to a new place of residence. This indicates RUF's intent to formalize and enforce military registration, potentially for conscription or mobilization. Confidence: HIGH.
Intentions:
Territorial Control: Primary intention remains the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar. RUF Colonelcassad posts maps of "Offensive on Konstantinovka," reinforcing this intent. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition video (02/06:19:27) confirms continued battles on the southern approaches to Konstantinovka in the Yablonovka area. Confidence: HIGH.
Strategic Depth: Establishment of "buffer zones" in border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv) to reduce UAF cross-border attack capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
Infrastructure Degradation: Continued degradation of Ukraine's military-industrial complex, energy infrastructure, and logistics to undermine its war effort. Confidence: HIGH.
Information Dominance: Maintain and escalate information warfare to shape narratives, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Intensify efforts to demonize UAF, link them to terrorism, and sow discord within Ukraine's international partners. Басурин о главном video (02/06:37:09) features a discussion on a "media revolution in Novorossiya," reinforcing intent to control information in occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
Internal Security: Continued efforts to suppress internal dissent and maintain control over occupied territories and the Russian population, including high-profile anti-corruption trials to project strength and accountability. The significant increase in internet shutdowns (ASTRA report) is a clear indicator of escalated intent to control information flow internally. Colonelcassad video (02/06:37:18) confirms the detention of a resident of Kerch for justifying UAF attacks on the Kremlin, indicating continued suppression of dissent. The Nizhny Novgorod financial literacy program (Глеб Никитин, 02/07:03:37-38) is part of a broader RUF effort to project stability and good governance domestically. The installation of new Stalin monuments (Север.Реалии, 02/07:15:17-18) indicates an intention to reinforce historical narratives and authoritarian control. Confidence: HIGH.
Regional Influence: Assert dominance in post-Soviet space, actively
