Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 011056Z JUL 25 (Updated from 011026Z JUL 25)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast:

  • RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF claims of territorial gains, including Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Novonikolaevka are partially corroborated by RUF-sourced visuals. RUF sources claim entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), reinforced by new RUF video. Confidence: MEDIUM (on verified control of Novonikolaevka); HIGH (on RUF claim with supporting visual evidence of presence and combat and confirmed control of Chervona Zirka).
  • TASS reports RUF forces are approximately 2.5 km from the suburbs of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
  • UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours, with continued clashes near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Koptyeve, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka.
  • UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Yablunivka. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms RUF control over a portion of Toretsk's ruins but highlights UAF's continued successful defense against persistent assaults. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near", and UAF General Staff confirms clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora. Russian forces have successfully advanced into the Kanal microdistrict, establishing a foothold east of the canal. UAF units are conducting a tactical fighting withdrawal to more defensible, prepared positions on the western side of the microdistrict and along the canal itself. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF "Два майора" posts a video of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount operating on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, showing it moving through damaged urban terrain and operating its weapons system. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk, including an "unsuccessful attack by motorcyclists." Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS reports FPV drones of Russian forces have started destroying UAF equipment and personnel on the outskirts of Konstantinovka, suggesting RUF is extending its drone reach to new forward areas and intensifying pressure on Konstantinovka. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF strike on Donetsk: Mash na Donbasse, WarGonzo, and Colonelcassad report a UAF missile strike on Donetsk, with smoke visible in the center and explosions continuing for over five minutes. TASS confirmed at least 1 civilian death and 3 wounded from the strike on Donetsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS MoD video confirms capture and clearing operations in Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), Donetsk Oblast, reinforcing previous claims. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Ukrainian Air Force (UAF AF) reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs (likely Shahed-type) in Donetsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad video (010333Z JUL 25) shows detailed drone reconnaissance footage of Ukrainian positions in Donbas, identifying "живая сила" (live force), "патч-антенна" (patch antenna), "система связи" (communication system), "минное поле" (minefield), "склад БК" (ammunition depot), and "дрон-ретранслятор" (drone type). This indicates advanced RUF ISR and targeting capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad video (010500Z JUL 25) shows a UAF International MaxxPro MRAP exploding after allegedly hitting a mine and then being destroyed by FPV drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. The video caption identifies the vehicle as Ukrainian and claims it hit a mine and was finished by FPV drones. However, visual analysis of the video shows the vehicle losing control on a slope, overturning, and then catching fire, with no clear indication of a mine strike. This suggests a potential accident compounded by subsequent FPV drone strikes. Confidence: MEDIUM (on mine strike and FPV destruction); HIGH (on vehicle loss and RUF claim).
  • WarGonzo (010807Z JUL 25) provides "Frontline Summary for the morning of 01.07.2025" for the Donetsk Front Map, indicating ongoing Russian analysis of the situation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF General Staff (010501Z JUL 25) provides operational information as of 08:00 (local time) regarding the Russian invasion, indicating continued active combat and UAF situation reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF reports (010545Z JUL 25) a high-speed target in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued missile/air threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • FSB claims (010553Z JUL 25) discovery of a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, possibly a false flag or preparation for future chemical attack accusation. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) shows a Russian soldier in an "anti-drone pose," indicating UAF drone superiority and RUF fear of UAVs. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010601Z JUL 25) reports RUF claims of UAF drones attacking a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR. Confidence: LOW (on veracity); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • Mash na Donbasse (010639Z JUL 25 and 010653Z JUL 25) videos show extensive damage to a marketplace or row of shops in Donetsk, claiming it was from shelling and that "almost the entire row of shops 'Sokol' completely burned down." Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010718Z JUL 25) reports the number of casualties in Donetsk on June 30 has risen to three, confirming ongoing civilian impact from UAF strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010702Z JUL 25) posts video of a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Novoyekonomicheskoye, indicating continued heavy air-dropped ordnance use. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (010703Z JUL 25) shares "Full composition of the 16th Army Corps of the AFU," suggesting RUF intelligence on UAF force structure. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • WarGonzo (010711Z JUL 25) posts video of "German's group" of the 291st Regiment targeting UAF positions, indicating continued RUF reconnaissance and targeting. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Народная милиция ДНР (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show a disabled UAF ATV near Poltavka. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • Colonelcassad (010802Z JUL 25) posts video from "enemy channels" showing UAF launching glide bombs against a former residential building, claiming destruction of a RUF position. This indicates UAF's continued use of air-dropped munitions. Confidence: HIGH (on video content and UAF strike); MEDIUM (on target and BDA).
  • Mash na Donbasse (010825Z JUL 25) posts video showing a traffic jam in Horlivka, Donetsk, indicating potential civilian disruption or movement. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010831Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered aid to victims of UAF terrorist attacks on railways in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts by August. This is an RUF information operation to frame UAF attacks as terrorism. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity of "terrorist attack" framing).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010853Z JUL 25) posts video of civilians being evacuated by military personnel in Bahatyr (Багатир), Donetsk Oblast, showing destroyed buildings and ID checks, indicating ongoing conflict and humanitarian efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Сливочный каприз (010854Z JUL 25) posts a photo message showing "01.07.25 Konstantinovka - Nelepovka" indicating RUF assessment of specific operational areas. Confidence: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010907Z JUL 25) posts video of ATVs, modified for military use, operating in a rural environment, suggesting reconnaissance, patrol, or logistical movement. The caption "Відео 🔞" and reference to "байкерів на Донецькому напрямку" (bikers in Donetsk direction) from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010914Z JUL 25) indicates these are likely Russian forces, and the context suggests a UAF strike on them. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010907Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) reports continuous clashes yesterday near Myrolubivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Olhivske, Piddubne, Novopil, Malynivka, Verkhnya Tersa, Novoandriyivka (air strikes); Vovchansk, Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe, Dovhenke and towards Petro-Ivanivka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction); Holubivka, Pischane and towards Novoosynove (Kupyansk direction); Bilohorivka, Kolodyazi, Novyy Myr, Novovodyane, Ridkodub, Torske and towards Seredne, Shandryholove, Olhivka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka and towards Zvanivka (Siversk direction); Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne and towards Bila Hora (Kramatorsk direction); Toretsk, Dyliyivka and Yablunivka (Toretsk direction); Rusyn Yar, Razine, Novotoretske, Myrne, Promin, Novoserhiyivka, Volodymyrivka, Myrolubivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Udachne, Muravka, Novopavlivka and Horikhove (Pokrovsk direction); Zaporizhzhya, Komar, Perebudova, Piddubne, Fedorivka, Shevchenko, Novopil (Novopavlivka direction); Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction); Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). Confidence: HIGH.
  • WarGonzo (010904Z JUL 25) posts multiple photos showing significant fire damage to a building (likely a marketplace or row of shops, as previously reported) in the center of Donetsk, attributed to "night strike by UAF." Confidence: HIGH.
  • MoD Russia (010930Z JUL 25) video shows an aerial view of a rural area, with a targeting reticle on a structure, and an explosion occurring. This is identified as a strike in "Raiskoye" (Donetsk Oblast). Confidence: HIGH.
  • General Staff of UAF (010940Z JUL 25) video shows drone footage of strikes on various targets, including trenches, fortified positions, and military vehicles, with text overlays identifying 'enemy personnel hit' and 'enemy equipment and personnel hit' in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010941Z JUL 25) video displays aerial reconnaissance footage, likely from a drone, showing explosions and impacts in forested areas and near settlements, with multiple smoke plumes, suggesting sustained shelling/bombing. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Народная милиция ДНР (011001Z JUL 25) video shows destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Footage includes drone tracking of UAF armored vehicles (tank and convoy) and direct hits, with claim of destruction. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and video showing BDA); MEDIUM (on verified destruction of multiple vehicles).
  • NEW: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (011033Z JUL 25) photo messages show continued damage to buildings from shelling/strikes, attributed to "windows simply broken" by RUF sources. This is a clear attempt to downplay the impact of UAF strikes on RUF-occupied Donetsk. Confidence: HIGH (on damage); LOW (on RUF framing).
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (011044Z JUL 25) video shows a drone strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Raiskoye, DNR. This confirms continued RUF precision strikes in Donetsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: STERNENKO (011045Z JUL 25) video shows a damaged UAF armored vehicle (likely a BMP) with a donation QR code, implying a UAF loss that needs public support. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (011048Z JUL 25) video shows Russian forces assaulting Torske in the Lyman direction. This confirms continued RUF offensive operations in the Lyman sector. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Воин DV (011045Z JUL 25) video shows drone footage of a 155-mm 2C22 "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery unit being targeted and allegedly destroyed near Oktyabrskoye. This is a significant claim of destruction of a key UAF asset. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and video showing BDA); MEDIUM (on verified destruction).
  • NEW: STERNENKO (011045Z JUL 25) video shows a UAF strike targeting a Russian armored vehicle (tank or APC) with multiple direct hits, leading to the vehicle being disabled and smoking. This confirms successful UAF kinetic action against RUF armor. Confidence: HIGH.

• Luhansk Oblast:

  • UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka).
  • RUF claims continue regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR." TASS reports Russian forces are clearing Petrovske, with approximately one kilometer remaining to reach the LNR border. Colonelcassad later corrected, stating two more villages near the border need to be cleared. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and correction).
  • UAF drone attack on Luhansk confirmed, causing fires and active RUF air defense. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts video of a large fire after a UAV attack, preliminarily identifying it as an oil depot. TASS reports over 20 UAVs flew over Luhansk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS reports (010801Z JUL 25) RUF conducted a combined strike to disrupt UAF rotation near Nadiya in Luhansk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verified BDA).
  • TASS (010524Z JUL 25) reports that Andrey Marochko (LPR People's Militia officer) claims Russian forces have "knocked out" UAF from the majority of positions on the heights near Bilohorivka, Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). Confidence: LOW (on verified UAF losses/RUF control); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video (010527Z JUL 25) provides additional visual confirmation of large fires in occupied Luhansk after drone attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010635Z JUL 25) claims that during a "massive drone attack" on LNR, 35 UAVs were shot down, debris fell on a fuel depot, and one civilian woman was wounded. This report is corroborated by (010636Z JUL 25) reporting damage to a railway section and strikes on a polyclinic. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operativny ZSU (010659Z JUL 25) reports Luhansk occupation head Pasechnik claims the large fire in Luhansk was due to "UAV debris falling on an oil depot," corroborating the UAF strike but framing it defensively. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mash na Donbasse (010706Z JUL 25) provides photos claiming to show the aftermath of a "massive UAV attack" by UAF on Luhansk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Север.Реалии (010804Z JUL 25) posts video showing the aftermath of the Luhansk oil depot fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010911Z JUL 25) reports one 18-year-old resident killed and seven wounded in LNR after a "massive UAV attack" by UAF, citing Pasechnik. Mash na Donbasse (010916Z JUL 25) and Басурин о главном (010917Z JUL 25) corroborate this. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010946Z JUL 25) posts photos and video confirming a "massive drone attack on LPR" by "criminal Kyiv regime," showing explosions and aftermath in a city. This is RUF propaganda but confirms the UAF strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Janus Putkonen (011144Z JUL 25) claims Luhansk is completely liberated by RUF, who continue to advance. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on independent verification).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro):

  • RUF attacked Nikopol district overnight with heavy artillery and FPV drones; 12 RUF UAVs were shot down.
  • RUF claims from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 state RUF forces struck railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Confidence: MEDIUM (on BDA verification); HIGH (on RUF claim of widespread strikes).
  • Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed Shahed attack on a military enlistment office (TCC), with 3 civilians wounded. Oleksandr Vilkul (010432Z JUL 25) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad claims the 114th Brigade of the RUF has officially "liberated" the first settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast – Dachne (Udachne?), and raised the Russian flag. Confidence: LOW (on verified control); HIGH (on RUF claim with supporting visual evidence).
  • UAF Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) claims Russians did not break through to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with battles ongoing near the administrative border, indicating successful UAF defense against ground incursions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Unverified RUF sources, specifically "Военкор Котенок", are depicting operational maps of the "Dnipropetrovsk direction (left flank)", indicating potential RUF focus or renewed activity. Confidence: LOW (on specific activity); HIGH (on RUF channel's interest).
  • UAF AF reports (0102219Z JUL 25) threat of RUF strike UAVs (likely Shahed-type) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF sources (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25) confirm overnight RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities in Synelnykivskyi district. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF channel "Операция Z" (010533Z JUL 25) claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." This is a significant, unverified claim of a deep penetration. Confidence: LOW (on verified control/penetration); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" image (010604Z JUL 25) claims Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is now on "warring list," indicating perceived direct involvement in ground combat. Confidence: HIGH (on UAF perception); LOW (on verified combat inside Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek (010616Z JUL 25) reports ballistic missile threat on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF (010632Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving towards Kryvyi Rih. This is corroborated by RBC-Ukraine (010633Z JUL 25) and (010639Z JUL 25 and 010640Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA (010629Z JUL 25) posts video of UAF AD successfully destroying a RUF UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA (010639Z JUL 25) reports RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operativny ZSU (010641Z JUL 25) confirms RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010729Z JUL 25) reports new "🚨UVAHA🚨" air alert, indicating continued missile/drone threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (010744Z JUL 25) reports new casualties (killed and wounded) after missile attack on Kamianske district, confirming severity of the strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010759Z JUL 25) reports missile threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district), indicating continued aerial threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010803Z JUL 25) reports that as of morning July 1, there were no Russian troops in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, but a significant threat remains, according to Oleh Trehubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010819Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded after Russian strike on Kamianske district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing local authorities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010840Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded from Russian missile attack on Kamianske district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, citing OVA. This confirms the severity and casualty count of the strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011357Z JUL 25) reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro district). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 09:15. Multiple images show significant damage to a building with smoke and debris. The caption confirms the attack and location. Confidence: HIGH.

• Sumy Oblast:

  • UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states the advance of Russian troops in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized.
  • UAF General Staff reports repelling 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions.
  • RUF sources, however, continue to claim offensive operations and significant advances.
  • RUF is conducting KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Konotop: MoD Russia claims and provides video of "Geran-2 UAVs destroyed a temporary deployment area of the AFU 58th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and a UAV depot near Konotop in Sumy region." Confidence: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts drone footage showing several deceased Russian soldiers in a "demilitarized buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast, indicating successful UAF defensive actions and high RUF casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS reports (010336Z JUL 25) RUF силовые структуры (security forces) claim a company of UAF soldiers was destroyed in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Confidence: LOW (on UAF losses); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • Операция Z (010604Z JUL 25) claims a fight near Tyotkino with Russian paratroopers storming positions and destroying UAF infantry after drone strikes on the Sumy front. Confidence: LOW (on UAF losses); HIGH (on RUF claim and ongoing combat).
  • UAF AF reports (010613Z JUL 25) KAB/KAR launches by tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF (010658Z JUL 25) reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast, indicating persistent air threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (010740Z JUL 25) reports a "new head" in Sudzhansky district, potentially indicating administrative changes in a border region. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25) reports 17 Russian army assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions yesterday, according to UAF General Staff. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (011007Z JUL 25) reports RUF repelled UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • NEW: Два майора (011036Z JUL 25) video shows an aerial strike, likely artillery or bomb, in the vicinity of Andreyevka, Sumy direction. This confirms continued RUF kinetic operations in the Sumy region. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kharkiv Oblast:

  • RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman) and ground clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Stroyivka and towards Kutkivka, and Kupyansk direction near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zelenyi Hai. TASS (010446Z JUL 25) reports Marochko claims Kyiv is using "meat assaults" to prevent RUF from liberating Kupyansk. Confidence: HIGH (on Marochko's claim).
  • Vovchansk: Colonelcassad video confirms a TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system strike on the "butter extraction plant" in Vovchansk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Pisochyn: Reports confirm 8 people were injured, including one child, as a result of a RUF drone attack on Pisochyn, Kharkiv Oblast, marking a new area of direct civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Korotych airfield: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims "В Харьковской области ВС РФ нанесли удар по аэродрому Коротич." Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east, and now warns of UAV threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF warns of immediate drone threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration (010517Z JUL 25), reports that 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy strikes over the past day, indicating persistent RUF pressure. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration (010640Z JUL 25), posts images of new local fire stations in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating efforts to bolster emergency response capability in communities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • OTU "Kharkiv" (010707Z JUL 25) provides an informational message, indicating ongoing UAF reporting and assessment of the situation in the sector. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010728Z JUL 25) posts a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, indicating ongoing RUF analysis and planning in the area. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (010842Z JUL 25) posts photo messages about new school buses delivered to educational institutions in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating efforts to restore normalcy and public services. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe, Dovhenke and towards Petro-Ivanivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and Holubivka, Pischane and towards Novoosynove (Kupyansk direction). Confidence: HIGH.

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

  • RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "Бои за Каменское идут полным ходом" (Battles for Kamyanske are in full swing), indicating it remains a contested area with active combat. Confidence: LOW (on verified RUF control); HIGH (on RUF claim of penetration and ongoing heavy combat).
  • UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske, and near Malynivka (Huliaipole direction).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Kadyrovites (Chechen special forces) are being prepared for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with approximately 15 military trucks moving them to the area of Enerhodar / Melitopol / Vasylivka. This indicates a potential major RUF buildup and offensive intent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна reports an RUF attack on an agricultural enterprise in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна confirm a civilian vehicle was engulfed in flames in Zaporizhzhia after a Russian attack. Information about casualties is being clarified. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF has launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district as reported by Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia OVA. This is confirmed by "Оперативний ЗСУ" with video and additional photo evidence from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration showing communal services clearing debris and damage. UAF Air Force warns of threat of aviation-launched weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 010336Z JUL 25. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports (010410Z JUL 25) a 56-year-old man was wounded as a result of an enemy attack on Polohy district. ASTRA (010451Z JUL 25) also reports on the casualty. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010518Z JUL 25) reports a complex night in Zaporizhzhia, with one district subjected to Shahed drone attacks. Over 400 shellings across the region, with 4 drones hitting an industrial enterprise and one Shahed hitting a residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district. This confirms increased intensity and targeting of both industrial and residential areas. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF channel "Воин DV" (010520Z JUL 25) reports that artillery of the 35th Army continues to work on "planned targets" in the Polohy direction, indicating ongoing RUF fire support in the area. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010543Z JUL 25) issues a new "🚨UVAHA🚨" alert, indicating persistent threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010552Z JUL 25) confirms air raid alert lifted. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010559Z JUL 25) posts a video of a minute of silence, highlighting national mourning. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010609Z JUL 25) reports two people wounded from an enemy attack on Polohy district. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010612Z JUL 25) issues a new "🚨UVAHA🚨" alert. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010632Z JUL 25) posts multiple photos and videos confirming a night strike by "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (010700Z JUL 25) posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia Front, with soldiers appealing for material and technical assistance, indicating ongoing combat and sustainment challenges. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010704Z JUL 25) posts a video of a Taekwondo coach offering rehabilitation to veterans, indicating UAF efforts in veteran support. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (010712Z JUL 25) provides operational information as of 08:00 (local time) and posts photos confirming UAF strikes on enemy locations, fire positions, and rear areas, indicating active UAF operations in the south. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010754Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010813Z JUL 25) reports traffic has been restored on H. 55th Brigade Street and Krugovaya Street, indicating local efforts to restore infrastructure after attacks. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reports two energy workers with contusions, a damaged high-voltage power line, and some settlements without light and communication after an enemy attack on Stepnohirska community. This indicates a direct attack on critical energy infrastructure and civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010835Z JUL 25) reports a new "🚨UVAHA🚨" air alert, indicating continued missile/drone threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010835Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010836Z JUL 25) confirms a high-speed target heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south, as reported by UAF AF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010851Z JUL 25) reports Stepnohirska community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is without power after Russian strikes, citing local authorities. This corroborates the earlier UAF report. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010924Z JUL 25) posts video from 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showing the aftermath of a "treacherous night attack" on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, with residents and utility workers beginning repairs, confirming civilian impact and ongoing recovery efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) reports clashes yesterday near Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction), Malynivka (Huliaipole direction), and Zaporizhzhya, Komar, Perebudova, Piddubne, Fedorivka, Shevchenko, Novopil (Novopavlivka direction). Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010940Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear. Confidence: HIGH.

• Kherson Oblast:

  • RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance.
  • UAF "Сили оборони Півдня України" posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 'Оперативний ЗСУ' reports that RUF shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing one man and wounding another.
  • Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25) reports UAF repelled 1 Russian army assault in Kherson direction yesterday, according to UAF General Staff. Confidence: HIGH.

• Odesa Oblast:

  • Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. 14 Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD.
  • Odesa Coastal Logistics/Oil Refinery: RUF reports a "powerful strike and huge fire" at an enemy object near Odesa, accompanied by video evidence of large, intense fires. TASS reports RUF struck an oil terminal supplying fuel to the Ukrainian Navy. NASA satellite data indicates fires in the area of grain and fuel terminals in Odesa, strongly corroborating the RUF strike claims. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Naval Forces report on Black and Azov Sea situation (010333Z JUL 25) indicates no Russian naval presence in Black Sea, 2 ships in Azov, 1 in Mediterranean (no missile carriers). Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) from "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" shows destruction of an "aerial target (Geran)" over Odesa, corroborating UAF AD effectiveness. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanek (010659Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear for Odesa. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010835Z JUL 25) posts photo messages about a tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" exploding in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27, citing GUR. This is a significant blow to RUF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010852Z JUL 25) corroborates the explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27, citing GUR. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) posts photo messages detailing the explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea, citing GUR. The accompanying map with "Пункт призначення" (Destination), "Місце аварії" (Accident site), and "Ез-Звайтіна" (likely Az-Zwaytina, a Libyan port) provides specific details on the incident's location and implications for RUF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (011040Z JUL 25) posts photos and video of rowing competitions at the Institute of Naval Forces in Odesa. This indicates continued military training and morale-boosting activities despite ongoing conflict. Confidence: HIGH.

• Mykolaiv Oblast:

  • Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' claims Russian forces destroyed Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010802Z JUL 25) claims RUF destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verified BDA).

• Kyiv Oblast:

  • The massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles passing Slavutych towards Kyiv. UAF AD was operating effectively.
  • Two UAF Air Force pilots, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko and Oleksiy "Moonfish" Mes, were killed overnight while repelling the massed attack.
  • UAF General Staff confirmed a massed missile-drone attack with over 500 air targets launched and 475 targets neutralized, with an additional 226 suppressed by EW. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Ukrainian UAV manufacturer founder Valeriy Borovyk warns (010552Z JUL 25) Kyiv may become "most vulnerable and dangerous" due to critical air defense deficit. Confidence: HIGH.
  • KVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) (010606Z JUL 25) posts a memorial graphic for a fallen soldier from Kyiv, highlighting ongoing casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) reports Syrskyi stating the term for basic general training will be increased from 49 to 51 days, with two additional days for training against enemy strike UAVs. This indicates UAF is adapting training programs to current threats. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF General Staff (010722Z JUL 25) posts photos from a complex meeting regarding countering Russian strike UAVs, further confirming the focus on this threat and adaptation of strategy. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010732Z JUL 25) shares a video claiming Kyiv will become the "most undefended and dangerous city in Ukraine" due to critical air defense deficit, reinforcing previous RUF propaganda. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010732Z JUL 25) posts a video of Yuriy Butusov discussing the importance of a strong defense line (1200km) and criticizing the lack of fortified positions, emphasizing the importance of strategic defense and resource allocation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) posts photos and a statement informing 9 RUF servicemen of suspicion for brutal treatment of civilians in Kyiv Oblast. This indicates continued UAF efforts to document and prosecute war crimes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (011053Z JUL 25) reports air raid alert for Kyiv. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011053Z JUL 25) reports ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (011054Z JUL 25) confirms air raid alert in Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missile threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (011054Z JUL 25) confirms air raid in Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. Confidence: HIGH.

• Cherkasy Oblast:

  • RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to three nine-story buildings and a college. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF (010616Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RBC-Ukraine (010617Z JUL 25) confirms high-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Confidence: HIGH.

• Poltava Oblast:

  • Kremenchug: RUF "Colonelcassad" video confirms a successful strike on the Kremenchug oil refinery. Confidence: HIGH.

• Lviv Oblast:

  • Drohobych: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video showing multiple missile/drone impacts and explosions at a refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast, confirming a successful RUF strike. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Territory (Saratov / Engels / Ulyanovsk / Rostov Oblast / Kazan / Kursk / Nizhnekamsk / Izhevsk):

  • ASTRA reports explosions and sirens in Saratov and Engels. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts video from Saratov, but it is low quality and does not show military activity, corroborating civilian reports. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Rosaviatsiya reports temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. TASS confirms temporary restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS and ASTRA report RUF Air Defense destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts of Rostov Oblast. No casualties reported. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posted video claiming "good UAVs attacked Rostov Oblast overnight", though the video quality is low and appears to show pyrotechnics rather than military ordnance. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos from Rostov, confirming distant flashes and sounds, but no direct military activity or BDA. Confidence: HIGH (on AD activity); MEDIUM (on UAF claim of attack and BDA of targets).
  • Temporary flight restrictions imposed at Kazan airport at 010325Z JUL 25. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS video claims RUF paratroopers evacuated an intact Leopard tank from Kursk Oblast at 010340Z JUL 25. Confidence: MEDIUM (on integrity of tank and source of evacuation); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • ASTRA reports (010415Z JUL 25) Nizhnekamsk Airport has suspended operations. TASS confirms (010416Z JUL 25) temporary restrictions at Nizhnekamsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operatyvny ZSU reports (010422Z JUL 25) that Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports in Tatarstan have implemented "Kover" plan (air defense alert). Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS reports (010415Z JUL 25) RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. ASTRA (010439Z JUL 25) also reports on this claim. "Операция Z" (010446Z JUL 25) claims a massive enemy attack on Russian regions. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim of AD activity); LOW (on verified UAF losses).
  • TASS reports (010510Z JUL 25) Saratov airport has lifted flight restrictions, indicating temporary nature of previous alert. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA reports (010533Z JUL 25) temporary flight restrictions at Izhevsk airport for security reasons. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010556Z JUL 25) reports temporary restrictions at Izhevsk airport. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010606Z JUL 25) reports residents of Izhevsk claiming drone attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operatyvny ZSU (010609Z JUL 25), ASTRA (010609Z JUL 25), Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010610Z JUL 25), and TASS (010611Z JUL 25) confirm a drone attack on a military enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol" (STERNENKO, 010624Z JUL 25; CyberBoroshno, 010644Z JUL 25; Шеф Hayabusa, 010644Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010651Z JUL 25; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 010654Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) posts video of UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea, showing successful deep strikes. RBC-Ukraine (010647Z JUL 25) corroborates this, claiming GUR drones struck a Su-30, Pantsir with crew, and radar in Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition (010635Z JUL 25) and Kotsnews (010652Z JUL 25) post video of the claimed captured Leopard tank from Kursk Oblast. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • TASS (010658Z JUL 25) reports personnel at the attacked enterprise in Izhevsk have been evacuated, and firefighters are extinguishing fires, confirming an impact and response. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010658Z JUL 25, 010705Z JUL 25) posts videos claiming "bright emotions in Izhevsk," showing explosions and smoke, further corroborating the attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010701Z JUL 25, 010723Z JUL 25) posts images and videos of explosions and smoke in Izhevsk, using mocking captions, indicating the severity of the attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010718Z JUL 25, 010720Z JUL 25) posts videos from Izhevsk, showing moments of attack and the head of Udmurtia confirming casualties, further confirming the severity of the attack and its civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010713Z JUL 25) reports on the UAF drone attack on Izhevsk, including photos and videos of explosions and a claimed military aircraft, confirming the event from a RUF perspective. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010719Z JUL 25) reports that flight restrictions at Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk airports have been lifted, indicating the temporary nature of the alerts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • CyberBoroshno (010724Z JUL 25) posts more photos of the damage to the Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant "Kupol." Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010729Z JUL 25) posts new videos showing a large plume of smoke and fire at Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant "Kupol", confirming continued impact and damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirms at least 9 people injured in the Izhevsk "Kupol" plant attack, citing local EMS, further solidifying civilian casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (010812Z JUL 25) posts videos of the Izhevsk attack, showing smoke plumes and an explosion at an enterprise. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010816Z JUL 25) reports Izhevsk enterprise attacked by UAF UAVs, citing the head of Udmurtia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010820Z JUL 25) reports killed and severely wounded after UAV attack in Izhevsk, citing the head of Udmurtia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010824Z JUL 25) posts video of the head of Udmurtia confirming killed and wounded after the Izhevsk attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010825Z JUL 25) posts photos claiming UAF UAVs attacked an industrial enterprise in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010824Z JUL 25) posts satellite imagery of the aftermath of a strike on the "Atlas" oil depot in Rostov Oblast on June 23, showing the scale of damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Старше Эдды (010840Z JUL 25) comments that slow, low-flying single targets successfully attacked targets deep within the European part of Russia, referring to Izhevsk. This indicates RUF concern regarding UAF deep strike capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010842Z JUL 25) claims three killed and about 20 wounded in Izhevsk, stating the enemy (UAF) attacked a drone assembly plant. This confirms the casualty count (though higher than ASTRA's 9 injured) and the target. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010842Z JUL 25) posts video of Udmurtia residents visually observing heavy enemy drones flying towards the capital. This corroborates the presence and nature of the UAF drones. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) posts a summary table of territorial changes under RUF control in the SMO zone for June 2025, and a line graph depicting "Area of territories that came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone 2023-25" showing monthly gains. This indicates RUF's self-assessment of territorial control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010911Z JUL 25) reports Izhevsk airport lifted restrictions. TASS (010913Z JUL 25) corroborates this. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010912Z JUL 25) posts photo of an intact Leopard tank in Kursk Oblast. The photo quality makes full verification of its integrity and operational status difficult, but RUF claims of capture persist. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Рыбарь (010916Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos related to the Izhevsk UAV attack, showing a fixed-wing drone, another small aircraft, and smoke plumes from an industrial area labeled "МДПС Ижевск." This further corroborates the attack and indicates a military-industrial target. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010921Z JUL 25) posts videos of the Izhevsk drone attack, showing smoke and what appears to be drones, claiming "preliminarily 4 dead" and suggesting internal launch within Russia due to 1200km distance from the Ukrainian border. This highlights continued civilian impact and RUF's narrative of internal sabotage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010934Z JUL 25) reports the head of Udmurtia, Brechalov, announced the lifting of the UAV danger regime in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010959Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming drone strikes on the "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. The videos show large plumes of smoke, explosions, and damage in an urban/industrial area. The caption states "SBU drones attacked 'Kupol' in Izhevsk, having flown over 1300 kilometers, - sources." This confirms the deep strike by UAF SBU and the military-industrial target. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (011000Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on the "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk, which produces Tor and Osa air defense systems and drones for the RUF army. This is highly significant, confirming a successful deep strike against a critical RUF military production facility. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (011002Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on the "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk, corroborating the target and the agency involved. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (011008Z JUL 25) posts videos confirming SBU drone strikes on the "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk, which produces Tor and Osa air defense systems and drones for the RUF army. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011045Z JUL 25) reports three people died after a UAV attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk and 35 were hospitalized, with 10 in critical condition. This increases the confirmed casualty count and severity of the Izhevsk strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Военкор Котенок (011045Z JUL 25) reports new data on casualties from Izhevsk, further corroborating the high number of injured and dead. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011046Z JUL 25) reports the head of Udmurtia informed Putin about the Izhevsk situation, highlighting the high-level concern for this deep strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ASTRA (011049Z JUL 25) video confirms the head of Udmurtia stating three dead and 35 injured from the Izhevsk attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011049Z JUL 25) video shows Putin expressing condolences to the families of those killed in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Президентська бригада ЗСУ (011050Z JUL 25) video from "Shef" discusses UAF drone advantages over RUF, indicating high UAF confidence in their drone warfare capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (011051Z JUL 25) photo message with "😱 успешно демобилизирован:" is likely a UAF graphic mocking RUF losses, reflecting high UAF morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (011052Z JUL 25) posts the same "successfully demobilized" graphic, reinforcing UAF's IO regarding RUF casualties. Confidence: HIGH.

1.1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest potential heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
• Russia: Новости Москвы reports a North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" has arrived in Moscow, bringing 3 days of rain and colder temperatures. Confidence: HIGH.

1.1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:

  • Donetsk: High-intensity offensive continues on Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Confirmed presence of units from the "Center" and "Vostok" groups, 30th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, and VDV (98th Guards Airborne Division confirmed in Chasiv Yar, 247th Air Assault Regiment). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Kadyrovite (Chechen special forces) transfer to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area with 15 military trucks indicates a significant buildup for potential assault operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Sumy: Claims of 50,000 RUF personnel concentrated in the area, outnumbering UAF by approximately 3:1. Confidence: LOW.
  • ASTRA reports five Su-34 fighter jets were damaged in a UAV attack on a military airfield in Volgograd Oblast on June 27. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS video shows operators of RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroying a truck with a UAF anti-aircraft gun. This appears to be a UAF military vehicle. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Fighterbomber (RUF channel) posts a video (010421Z JUL 25) showing personnel loading what appear to be cruise missiles on wheeled carts at an airfield. This indicates ongoing air force logistical activity and readiness for strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010602Z JUL 25) video shows a Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter in flight, suggesting active combat aviation support for ground operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • MoD Russia (010630Z JUL 25) video shows Zapad Group of Forces’ Giatsint-B towed gun crews eliminating ammunition depots and military personnel of the AFU in the special military operation zone, indicating active artillery support for ground operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) posts video of 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators targeting enemy vehicles and communication systems in the Shakhtyorsk direction, indicating active special forces operations and targeting of UAF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (010742Z JUL 25) posts images discussing how "leading military countries are trying to rethink the purpose of combat helicopters in modern warfare," suggesting RUF is also analyzing the role of helicopters in current conflicts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • MoD Russia (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming mobile air surveillance post crews from the Tsentr Group of Forces are destroying dozens of enemy UAVs, indicating active counter-drone operations. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010837Z JUL 25) posts a video of drone footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing a rural landscape. While no direct military engagements are visible, the context implies RUF reconnaissance or surveillance, possibly of UAF positions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • «Зона СВО» (010848Z JUL 25) posts photo messages with no caption, indicating continued RUF channel activity. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010922Z JUL 25) reports Russian air defense shot down three Storm Shadow missiles, three HIMARS projectiles, and 173 UAVs in the last 24 hours. This indicates high RUF AD activity and continued UAF long-range strike capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010925Z JUL 25) provides "Main points from the new briefing of the Ministry of Defense," indicating ongoing RUF operational reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) posts a video showing an aerial view of a small settlement, with an explosion impacting a structure, followed by secondary explosions, suggesting the presence of munitions or fuel. The targeting reticle indicates a potential military strike. The video caption claims "Geranium production has increased so much that drones have begun to be used not only for deep rear operations but also directly on the front line." This suggests direct deployment of Shahed-type drones on the frontline. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (010950Z JUL 25) video showing soldiers in a wooded area with sniper rifles, indicating continued RUF ambush tactics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Воин DV (010955Z JUL 25) posts video of a map showing "Chronology of changes in the LBS and liberation of territory by the 'Vostok' group in the South-Donetsk direction from June 1 to June 30, 2025," indicating RUF assessment of their operational gains. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (011106Z JUL 25) posts a video of a soldier speaking in Russian, wishing viewers a happy holiday and success in combat. The soldier wears tactical gear with red armbands. This indicates continued RUF combat readiness and focus on morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (012201Z JUL 25) video shows drone footage of military engagements in Donbas, including strikes on pickup trucks, armored vehicles, firing positions, shelters, EW antennas, and communication antennas. This confirms advanced RUF ISR and precision targeting capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: MoD Russia (011035Z JUL 25) posts multiple photos displaying various military decorations and awards. The caption is "🎖🎖 by Russian Defence Ministry on progress of special military operation as of 1 July 2025." This is a propaganda piece intended to show RUF success and boost morale. Confidence: HIGH.

• RUF Equipment/Tactics:

  • UAVs: Continued extensive use of FPV drones, reconnaissance UAVs, and Shahed-type strike UAVs ("Geranium-2") for deep strikes. Reports of a new "Chernika" drone in Kharkiv. Deployment of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV with a dual machine gun mount on the Pokrovsk direction. New drone footage showing RUF capabilities against UAF logistics and C2. Colonelcassad (010702Z JUL 25) posts video of a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point, reinforcing continued heavy use. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Precision Fires: Continued use of FABs with UMPK glide kits (Chasiv Yar), Lancet loitering munitions, and TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mine Warfare: Confirmed use of minefields by RUF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Foreign Fighters: Confirmed use of Latin American (Argentina, Brazil, Cuba) and Cameroonian mercenaries as assault troops. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Logistics/Funding: Continued reliance on public fundraising for critical equipment. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (RUF channel) posts video (010421Z JUL 25) of Russian "военкоры" (war correspondents) appealing for donations for thermal imagers, highlighting continued reliance on public fundraising for essential battlefield equipment. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010504Z JUL 25) posts a video showing a "frontline laboratory" where Rosgvardia specialists are studying enemy drones and improving electronic warfare (EW) systems, indicating active counter-UAV and EW development. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) posts a video of Russian reconnaissance unit appealing for donations for Mavic 3T/Pro drones and food/communciation equipment for forward positions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA reports (010539Z JUL 25) that utility tariffs are increasing in Russia by up to 40% in some cities, potentially impacting domestic stability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (010700Z JUL 25) video showing soldiers appealing for material and technical assistance from the Zaporizhzhia Front, reinforcing continued reliance on public support. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010751Z JUL 25) posts an image with text claiming Russia "smashed Ukrainian defense industry to smithereens," reinforcing a narrative of successful strikes against military production. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) claims "Geranium" (Shahed) drones are now being used directly on the front line due to increased production, if true, this indicates a significant tactical shift and increased availability of these systems. Confidence: MEDIUM.

• RUF Control Measures / IO:

  • Active recruitment campaigns for specialized units.
  • Continued IO exploiting UAF casualties and internal issues, discrediting Western aid.
  • Increased diplomatic tension with Azerbaijan (alleged FSB detentions, Russian MFA protests). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Putin discussed the integration of Donbas and Novorossiya by 2030, reinforcing long-term intent for political and economic integration of occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Yaroslav Nilov proposed celebrating July 1st as "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" in Russian regions, aiming to boost morale and national pride for military personnel. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian Central Bank has signaled to banks the possibility of debt restructuring for coal miners, indicating efforts to support critical domestic industries and prevent economic instability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian Ministry of Education announced the unification of Russian language exams for foreigners entering universities in 2026, which could facilitate foreign national integration. Confidence: HIGH.
  • "Операция Z" posts a video (010326Z JUL 25) on captured individuals accused of treason and espionage for Ukraine, showing arrests, interrogations, and court proceedings with harsh sentences. This is a clear propaganda piece aimed at deterring defection/collaboration and reinforcing state control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message (010331Z JUL 25) with the caption "Десантное братство, семья," implying a focus on unit cohesion and morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS reports (010306Z JUL 25) that AKORT (Association of Retail Companies) does not observe foreign retailers wishing to leave Russia. This is a message of economic stability and resilience. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS reports (010422Z JUL 25) a queue of 757 vehicles at the Crimean bridge from the Taman side, indicating ongoing civilian traffic and potentially logistical movement. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010430Z JUL 25) posts a photo message with the caption "Матерей-героинень уравняют в льготах с Героями России," indicating efforts to promote state support for families. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010442Z JUL 25) posts a photo message with #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ, indicating a focus on historical narratives and potentially patriotic education. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Архангел Спецназа (010449Z JUL 25) posts a message "Восстановление — это наша победа в мирное время," emphasizing reconstruction and normalisation in occupied areas. Confidence: HIGH.
  • WarGonzo (010502Z JUL 25) marks July 1st as "Day of Memory and Respect – Day of Veterans of Combat Operations," indicating RUF's ongoing efforts to honor military personnel and boost morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010503Z JUL 25) reports that Russian experts will study the OPCW report of June 26 on the alleged detection of poisonous substances in Ukraine, indicating Russia's response to international accusations and its efforts to control the information narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010510Z JUL 25) publishes FSB documents about "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" on the Leningrad Front in 1941, indicating a propaganda effort to link contemporary Ukrainian resistance to historical collaboration narratives, intended to discredit Ukraine and mobilize public opinion. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010518Z JUL 25) reports that AKORT (Association of Retail Companies) continues to not support the start of online alcohol sales in Russia due to risks, a domestic economic-social policy item. Confidence: HIGH.
  • FSB claims (010553Z JUL 25) discovery of a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, which is a significant information operation element, potentially a false flag. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims UAF drones attacked a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR, likely a propaganda effort to portray UAF as targeting civilians. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • Военкор Котенок (010605Z JUL 25) provides commentary defining the "Ukrainian war" as Russia's "very delayed and even timid" response to a war unleashed against the Russian people in Ukraine, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative of justification. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010605Z JUL 25) reports disconnection of mobile services for foreigners not providing biometrics, indicating tightening state control over foreign nationals. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010606Z JUL 25, 010608Z JUL 25, 010610Z JUL 25) reports on Russian holiday calendar for 2026, aimed at domestic stability and morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010613Z JUL 25) video shows a public event with "Together with Russia" and "Bank of Russia" logos, promoting national unity and economic stability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010613Z JUL 25) video shows FSB footage of alleged UAF chemical weapons cache. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • TASS (010625Z JUL 25) posts video of the Azerbaijani Ambassador arriving at the Russian MFA, confirming ongoing diplomatic engagement on bilateral tensions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (010630Z JUL 25) discusses "Half a year for the AFU and the main difference between North Korea and Iran," indicating continued RUF analysis of international military aid dynamics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010642Z JUL 25) posts a "Today is International Joke Day" graphic. This is likely a standard social media post and has no military intelligence significance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • WarGonzo (010648Z JUL 25) shares multiple photo messages dedicated to "Day of Combat Veterans," reinforcing the official narrative to boost morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010702Z JUL 25) posts a photo message celebrating "July 1st - Day of Combat Veterans," emphasizing morale boosting efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (010704Z JUL 25) reports the State Duma proposed retraining psychologists for working with SVO (Special Military Operation) fighters, indicating an institutional effort to address veteran mental health and societal reintegration. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010712Z JUL 25) reports that the prosecutor's office approved charges against "foreign agent" Ilya Varlamov for evading duties and spreading false information about RUF, indicating continued legal pressure on dissenting voices. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010719Z JUL 25) reports charges against Ilya Varlamov, further confirming the legal action against perceived critics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010723Z JUL 25) reports that Dagestan State Secretary Magomedov, facing a criminal case, has been dismissed, highlighting ongoing internal anti-corruption or political actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010734Z JUL 25) reports that a verdict for Yevgenia Gutsul (head of Gagauzia) may be issued on July 4th, coinciding with the visit of Ursula von der Leyen to Chisinau, indicating potential political maneuvering. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010740Z JUL 25) reports that the government commission approved a draft to provide benefits to "Mother-Heroines" on par with "Heroes of Labor," indicating further social support measures. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010742Z JUL 25) posts a video of Florian Philippot, leader of the French "Patriots" party, tearing a NATO flag, indicating RUF highlighting anti-NATO sentiment in Europe. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010746Z JUL 25) posts multiple historical photos of Grand Duchess Maria Nikolaevna, likely as a historical propaganda piece to reinforce national pride or historical narratives, without direct military significance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Воин DV (010800Z JUL 25) posts photo messages celebrating "Veterans of Combat Operations Day," reinforcing morale-boosting efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010806Z JUL 25) posts about unsafe wireless headphones and speakers, indicating a general consumer safety message. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (010806Z JUL 25) posts video showing FSB footage of alleged UAF chemical weapons cache, reinforcing the false flag narrative. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • ТАСС (010809Z JUL 25) reports a case against opera singer Maria Maksakova-Igenbergs for calls to activity against Russia has been sent to court, indicating continued suppression of dissenting voices. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010812Z JUL 25) posts photo claiming a change of power in Malinivka, suggesting a claimed territorial gain or administrative change. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verifiable control).
  • ТАСС (010814Z JUL 25) reports the acting rector of UralGUFK is accused of bribery, highlighting internal anti-corruption or political actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010816Z JUL 25) reports the Prosecutor General's office sent the "Crocus" terrorist attack case to court, indicating continued focus on internal security and justice. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010820Z JUL 25) reports 11.67 million Russians have set a self-ban on credits, indicating potential economic strain or financial prudence. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Рыбарь (010823Z JUL 25) posts a stylized photo message "Ottoman Armenia is getting closer," indicating geopolitical commentary, likely regarding tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan/Turkey. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010823Z JUL 25) posts a photo message claiming local authorities in Tver Oblast gave a multi-child Roma family a 3-room apartment, while Russian military families wait longer for housing, likely a grievance message aiming to stir social discontent. Confidence: HIGH (on grievance message); LOW (on full veracity of housing situation).
  • ТАСС (010833Z JUL 25) reports Putin instructed to support the development of a Russian messenger, including providing access to public services. This is a domestic policy item focusing on digital sovereignty and state control over information. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Север.Реалии (010836Z JUL 25) reports a prosecutor demanded replacing a fine with real imprisonment for Lydia Prudovskaya from Arkhangelsk. This indicates continued internal suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010841Z JUL 25) posts photo message of Moskal’kova calling on the world community to take seriously UN data on killings and torture by UAF and condemn Kyiv. This is a direct RUF information operation to discredit UAF and shift blame. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity of claims against UAF).
  • ТАСС (010837Z JUL 25) reports that mass events in Izhevsk have been cancelled for July 1 and 2 after the UAV attack, indicating the direct impact of UAF strikes on civilian life in Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010851Z JUL 25) reports "Miratorg" found no food safety violations in its onion rings, a domestic consumer news item of no direct military intelligence significance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Полиция Хабаровского края (010853Z JUL 25) posts a video celebrating traffic police holiday, showing positive domestic content of no military significance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) presents "Summary table of territorial changes on the map 'War for the division of Ukraine' related to combat operations in the SMO zone for June 2025" and a graph showing "Area of territories that came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone 2023-25." This is a RUF propaganda tool to highlight claimed gains and justify the war. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010845Z JUL 25) reports a bill on tightening criminal liability for violating foreign agent legislation has been submitted to the State Duma. This indicates further tightening of state control and suppression of perceived opposition. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (010847Z JUL 25) posts photo messages with "В азербайджанских СМИ - своя атмосфера," suggesting commentary on Azerbaijan's media landscape, likely related to the ongoing diplomatic tensions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010850Z JUL 25) posts a video with strong anti-Israel and pro-Palestine sentiment, reflecting an attempt to introduce and amplify specific geopolitical narratives within RUF-aligned channels. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reports the court arrested Bakir Safarov, accused in old murder cases, until July 19. This continues the internal law and order narrative and suggests action against individuals perceived as problematic. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) video shows the arrest of Bakir Safarov, which serves to visually reinforce the RUF's message of maintaining law and order. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reports Kyrgyz President Zhaparov will visit Russia on July 2, indicating continued Russian diplomatic engagement with Central Asian partners. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010915Z JUL 25) reports Bakir Safarov does not admit guilt, continuing the internal legal narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010919Z JUL 25) reports the Federation Council Committee recommended approving a law imposing a fine of up to 20,000 rubles for failing to report relocation to a military enlistment office. This suggests efforts to tighten military registration and potentially facilitate mobilization or conscription. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010923Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's Prosecutor's Office opened a criminal case "on the fact of torture and premeditated murder with particular cruelty of bandits in Yekaterinburg," escalating the diplomatic tension with Azerbaijan regarding alleged Russian actions against Azerbaijani citizens. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010924Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General's Office opening a criminal case regarding the murder of two Azerbaijani citizens in Russia, providing more details on the escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010933Z JUL 25) photo message about "followers of blogger Alex Leslie being mass-prosecuted for harassing girls on the street," indicating domestic law enforcement and social control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010934Z JUL 25) reports Sergey Zhukov is listed in "Mirotvorets" extremist database, which is a RUF propaganda point about Ukrainian actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010932Z JUL 25) reports the Federation Council Committee recommended approving a law increasing the maximum fine for a driver refusing to stop for police to 10,000 rubles. This is a domestic law enforcement measure. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010943Z JUL 25) posts about a proposal to build a linear museum over Kutuzovsky Prospekt, a domestic urban planning initiative with no direct military intelligence significance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010948Z JUL 25) posts photo with text: "IF YOU WANT TO DEFEAT YOUR ENEMIES, EDUCATE THEIR CHILDREN," indicating a focus on long-term influence and control of occupied populations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Север.Реалии (010951Z JUL 25) reports that a graduate of the Kaliningrad Naval Academy was convicted on five charges, indicating internal security and legal actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010952Z JUL 25) reports a Moscow court arrested another follower of blogger Alex Leslie for petty hooliganism. This confirms ongoing domestic law enforcement targeting social issues. Confidence: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010953Z JUL 25) posts video of a Russian propagandist "openly admitting discrimination" of prisoners from "L/DPR," revealing internal RUF issues related to POW exchanges and potentially fueling discontent within proxy forces. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Z комитет + карта СВО (011000Z JUL 25) posts multiple photos and an image celebrating "July 1st - Day of Combat Veterans." This is a continued RUF information operation aimed at boosting morale and showing support for their military. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) posts a photo of Dmitry Peskov and reports his statements from a briefing. This signifies continued direct communication from the Kremlin to control narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (011010Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General's Office opened a criminal case regarding the torture and murder of Safarov brothers detained in Yekaterinburg. This indicates the escalating diplomatic tension is now being formalized through legal channels. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) reports Peskov stated attempts are being made to cause a split in Russia-Azerbaijan relations. This is a RUF framing of the ongoing diplomatic tension. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (011003Z JUL 25) posts about Azerbaijan announcing the gradual closure of Russian-language schools. This serves as RUF IO to portray Azerbaijan as hostile or to justify Russian actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Рыбарь (011004Z JUL 25) posts a video titled "Azerbaijan continues media attack," reinforcing the narrative of Azerbaijan's aggression in the information space. Confidence: HIGH.
  • WarGonzo (011005Z JUL 25) poses the question "Why is Baku concerned about crimes in Yekaterinburg and what does oil have to do with it?", directly linking the Safarov case to geopolitical interests and attempting to discredit Azerbaijan's actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (011005Z JUL 25) posts multiple images with the caption "Frontline armor." While the images themselves are non-military (cats), the caption aims to associate positive imagery with the war effort. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (011007Z JUL 25) posts a video claiming FSB discovered a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR. This is a crucial false flag or propaganda element. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (011106Z JUL 25) posts a photo of t-shirts with "ORESHNIK - learn Russian," likely a cultural or patriotic propaganda piece aimed at promoting Russian language and potentially associated with military themes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (011305Z JUL 25) posts historical grievances about Russia's territorial concessions to Azerbaijan in 2011, indicating a long-term IO strategy to fuel anti-Azerbaijani sentiment and potentially justify future actions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (011417Z JUL 25) reports prosecutors demanded a 9-year prison sentence for the head of Gagauzia for illegal financing, indicating continued Russian influence in Moldovan politics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (011602Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General's Office opened a criminal case regarding the death of two individuals involved in murder cases in Yekaterinburg, escalating diplomatic tension. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (011743Z JUL 25) posts a video of Dmitry Peskov's statements, indicating continued high-level communication of RUF narratives. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Старше Эдды (011939Z JUL 25) posts "Happy Day of Combat Veterans to all involved. On you, brothers, the Russian land stood and will stand." This reinforces the official morale-boosting narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Новости Москвы (011030Z JUL 25) posts a photo of an elevated park structure, which has no military significance and may be part of standard civilian content or a subtle attempt to showcase urban development in Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns (011032Z JUL 25) photo messages show a Russian "traffic police" graphic, indicating a focus on domestic law enforcement and social order. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011032Z JUL 25) reports a camp counselor in Krasnoyarsk Krai was fired after three teenagers sexually assaulted a ten-year-old boy. This is a domestic news item highlighting crime and law enforcement, not directly military. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (011032Z JUL 25) reports Peskov commented on a national messenger theme, indicating continued state focus on digital sovereignty and information control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Kotsnews (011034Z JUL 25) reports Baku accusing Russian security forces of killing two Azerbaijanis. This escalates the information war between RUF and Azerbaijan. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Операция Z (011034Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan continues to "take Russian journalists hostage" by detaining 7 more at Sputnik office. This is a strong RUF counter-narrative to Azerbaijan's accusations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: НгП раZVедка (011034Z JUL 25) posts a "congratulatory helicopter" message, likely a morale booster or internal joke. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011041Z JUL 25) reports the new Afghan Ambassador to Russia arriving in Moscow today, indicating continued diplomatic engagement. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011043Z JUL 25) video claims the Izhevsk attack was a "demonstration of capabilities" by Ukraine to Western sponsors, especially Germany, linking it to recent German MFA visits and "Lyutyi" drone production. This is a significant RUF information operation to discredit Western aid and justify their own actions. Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Key Terrain Adjustments (Summary of Confirmed and Claimed Changes)

• Confirmed RUF Territorial Gains/Presence:

  • Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka) (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims "liberation" confirmed by RUF MoD video. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Portion of Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): RUF controls part of the ruins, UAF holds the city. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kanal Microdistrict, Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): RUF has established a confirmed foothold east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. Confidence: HIGH.

• Contested/Claimed RUF Penetration:

  • Novonikolaevka (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims "liberation" and visual corroboration. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Shevchenko (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims "liberation" and visual corroboration. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF claims penetration to the center and flag raising. UAF sources indicate heavy ongoing battles. Confidence: LOW (on verified RUF control); HIGH (on RUF claim of penetration and ongoing heavy combat).
  • Dachne (Dnipro Oblast): Colonelcassad claims "liberation" by 114th Brigade, raising flags. Confidence: LOW (on verified control); HIGH (on RUF claim with supporting visual evidence).
  • Rybar (010500Z JUL 25) details Russian advances on June 10th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 25th, 27th, and 28th, 2025, in areas like Urozhayne, Novopavlovka, Novopokrovka, Novoselivka, and west of Vremivka, specifically along the Mokri Yaly river in Southern Donetsk, indicating consistent, incremental RUF gains in this direction. Confidence: HIGH (on claimed advances); MEDIUM (on independent verification of full control).
  • TASS (010524Z JUL 25) reports RUF claims of pushing UAF out of most positions on the heights near Bilohorivka, LNR. Confidence: LOW (on verified UAF losses/RUF control); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • RUF channel "Операция Z" (010533Z JUL 25) claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." This is a significant, unverified claim of a deep penetration. Confidence: LOW (on verified control/penetration); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • Операция Z (010604Z JUL 25) claims Russian paratroopers stormed positions near Tyotkino, Sumy front. Confidence: LOW (on UAF losses); HIGH (on RUF claim and ongoing combat).
  • Colonelcassad (010812Z JUL 25) claims a change of power in Malinivka. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verifiable control).
  • Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) reports on claimed territorial gains, which are likely exaggerated but reflect RUF self-perception. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on independent verification of scale).
  • Воин DV (010955Z JUL 25) posts a map showing claimed territorial gains by "Vostok" group in South-Donetsk direction for June 2025. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on independent verification of full control).
  • Janus Putkonen (011144Z JUL 25) claims Luhansk is completely liberated. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on independent verification).
  • Сливочный каприз (011352Z JUL 25) posts a photo message of "01.07.25 Kurakhove - Oleksiyivka," indicating RUF assessment of potential advances or ongoing operations in these specific areas. Confidence: HIGH.

• Confirmed RUF Strikes on Specific Infrastructure/Facilities:

  • Drohobych refinery (Lviv Oblast): Confirmed successful missile strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kremenchug oil refinery (Poltava Oblast): Confirmed successful strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Vovchansk "butter extraction plant" (Kharkiv Oblast): Confirmed TOS-1A strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Odesa Coastal Logistics/Naval Fuel Terminal / Oil Refinery (Burlachya Balka): Confirmed "powerful strike" and fires, likely by Shaheds. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Konotop UAV depot/UAF deployment (Sumy Oblast): Confirmed Geran-2 strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kryvyi Rih TCC (Military Enlistment Office) (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast): Confirmed Shahed strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, logistics routes (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast): RUF claims widespread strikes. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Korotych airfield (Kharkiv Oblast): RUF claims successful strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Military airfield in Volgograd Oblast (Russia): ASTRA reports 5 Su-34 fighter jets damaged by UAF UAV attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Agricultural enterprise in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attacked. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Donetsk and Yasynuvata (Donetsk Oblast): UAF confirmed strikes, causing fires and civilian casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Luhansk (LNR): UAF drone attack confirmed, causing fires and active RUF air defense. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) shows video of large fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF attack caused a fire to a civilian vehicle. Casualties being clarified. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF has launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district, confirmed by Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia OVA, and "Оперативний ЗСУ" with video evidence. Photos from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration show communal services clearing debris. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad video (010500Z JUL 25) shows a UAF International MaxxPro MRAP destroyed in Southern Donetsk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF claims disruption of UAF rotation near Nadiya, Luhansk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010415Z JUL 25) Group 'Zapad' claimed destruction of 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verified BDA).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010518Z JUL 25) reports a industrial enterprise was hit by 4 Shahed drones and one Shahed hit a residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) from "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" confirms destruction of a "Geran" UAV over Odesa. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Izhevsk (Udmurtia, Russia): ASTRA (010606Z JUL 25), Operatyvny ZSU (010609Z JUL 25), ASTRA (010609Z JUL 25), Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010610Z JUL 25), TASS (010611Z JUL 25), CyberBoroshno (010644Z JUL 25), Шеф Hayabusa (010644Z JUL 25), Оперативний ЗСУ (010651Z JUL 25), and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010654Z JUL 25) confirm a drone attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol". Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) posts video of UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. RBC-Ukraine (010647Z JUL 25) corroborates this. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA (010639Z JUL 25) reports RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operativny ZSU (010641Z JUL 25) confirms RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010708Z JUL 25) posts video of a "Geran-2" UAV destroying a UAF temporary deployment point in Rayiskoye, DNR. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) video shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operators striking UAF vehicles and communication systems in the Shakhtyorsk direction, confirming direct kinetic action against UAF logistics and C2. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010713Z JUL 25) provides photos and videos of the Izhevsk attack, including visuals of a military aircraft and extensive damage, corroborating UAF deep strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010729Z JUL 25) posts new videos showing a large plume of smoke and fire at Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant "Kupol", confirming continued impact and damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (010744Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded from missile attack on Kamianske district, confirming severity. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Народная милиция ДНР (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show a disabled UAF ATV near Poltavka, likely from a RUF strike. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010802Z JUL 25) claims RUF destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verified BDA).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010824Z JUL 25) posts satellite imagery aftermath of a UAF strike on the "Atlas" oil depot in Rostov Oblast on June 23. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reports a damaged high-voltage power line in Stepnohirska community after enemy attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010840Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded from Russian missile attack on Kamianske district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) reports GUR details regarding the explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea, a significant UAF success against RUF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010907Z JUL 25) reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Myrolubivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Olhivske, Piddubne, Novopil of Donetsk region, Malynivka, Verkhnya Tersa, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010914Z JUL 25) posts video (graphic) showing "conversion of occupants-bikers into mince" in the Donetsk direction, likely from a UAF strike, confirming high RUF casualties during tactical assaults. Confidence: HIGH.
  • MoD Russia (010930Z JUL 25) video shows an aerial strike on a structure in Raiskoye, identifying it as a "militant" target. Confidence: HIGH.
  • General Staff of UAF (010940Z JUL 25) video shows drone footage of strikes on various targets, including trenches, fortified positions, and military vehicles, with text overlays identifying 'enemy personnel hit' and 'enemy equipment and personnel hit' in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010941Z JUL 25) video shows explosions from strikes in forested areas and near settlements, indicating continued RUF shelling. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010959Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on the "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. This is a critical strike on RUF military production. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (011000Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk, which produces Tor and Osa air defense systems and drones. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (011002Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (011008Z JUL 25) posts videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Народная милиция ДНР (011001Z JUL 25) video shows destruction of UAF armored vehicles by 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and video showing BDA); MEDIUM (on verified destruction of multiple vehicles).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (011306Z JUL 25) video from GUR confirms resistance movement destroyed railway tracks in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast on June 26, indicating effective partisan operations targeting RUF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at 09:15, with photo evidence of severe damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (011044Z JUL 25) video shows destruction of a UAF temporary deployment point by a Geran drone near Raiskoye, DNR. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Воин DV (011045Z JUL 25) video shows targeting and destruction of a 155-mm 2C22 "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery unit. This is a significant claim of a key UAF asset destroyed. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and video evidence); MEDIUM (on independent BDA confirmation).
  • NEW: STERNENKO (011045Z JUL 25) video shows a UAF strike disabling a Russian armored vehicle, confirming UAF's continued kinetic operations against RUF armor. Confidence: HIGH.

• New Area of Civilian Impact (RUF):

  • Pisochyn (Kharkiv Oblast): Confirmed drone attack with 8 casualties (including 1 child). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF attack caused a fire to a civilian vehicle. Casualties being clarified. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF has launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Polohy district (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): 56-year-old man wounded in enemy attack (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, 010410Z JUL 25; ASTRA, 010451Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010518Z JUL 25) reports a residential building in Shevchenkivskyi district was hit by a Shahed drone. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010609Z JUL 25) reports two people wounded from an enemy attack on Polohy district. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA (010639Z JUL 25) reports RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010720Z JUL 25) reports the head of Udmurtia confirmed casualties from the Izhevsk attack, indicating civilian impact despite the military target. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirms at least 9 people injured in the Izhevsk "Kupol" plant attack, citing local EMS. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (010744Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded from missile attack on Kamianske district, highlighting ongoing civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010819Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Kamianske. ТАСС (010820Z JUL 25) reports killed and severely wounded after UAV attack in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010824Z JUL 25) posts video of the head of Udmurtia confirming killed and wounded after the Izhevsk attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reports two energy workers with contusions, and some settlements without light and communication after an enemy attack on Stepnohirska community. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010851Z JUL 25) reports Stepnohirska community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is without power after Russian strikes, citing local authorities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010842Z JUL 25) claims three killed and about 20 wounded in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (010853Z JUL 25) states that judging by the deaths, the plant workers were hit, indicating civilian casualties at Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010924Z JUL 25) posts video of the aftermath of a "treacherous night attack" on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, with residents and utility workers beginning repairs, confirming significant civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing damage to a building, indicating further civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011045Z JUL 25) reports three killed and 35 hospitalized (10 critical) from the Izhevsk attack. This increases the confirmed civilian impact of the UAF strike on a military-industrial target. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Военкор Котенок (011045Z JUL 25) reports new data on casualties from Izhevsk, corroborating the rising civilian toll. Confidence: HIGH.

• New Area of Civilian Impact (UAF Cross-border):

  • Donetsk (DNR): Civilian casualties and fires reported after UAF missile strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Luhansk (LNR): UAF drone attack confirmed, fires and RUF AD active. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Saratov and Engels (Russia): Residents reported explosions and sirens. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts video from Saratov, but it is low quality and does not show military activity, corroborating civilian reports. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Rostov Oblast (Russia): RUF AD destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts videos from Rostov, confirming distant flashes and sounds consistent with AD. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kazan (Russia): Temporary flight restrictions at Kazan airport may indicate drone activity. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan, Russia): Airport suspended operations, likely due to drone threat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (ASTRA, 010439Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim of AD activity); LOW (on verified UAF losses).
  • TASS reports (010510Z JUL 25) Saratov airport has lifted flight restrictions, indicating temporary nature of previous alert. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA reports (010533Z JUL 25) temporary flight restrictions at Izhevsk airport for security reasons. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Izhevsk (Udmurtia, Russia): ASTRA (010606Z JUL 25), Operatyvny ZSU (010609Z JUL 25), ASTRA (010609Z JUL 25), Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010610Z JUL 25), TASS (010611Z JUL 25), CyberBoroshno (010644Z JUL 25), Шеф Hayabusa (010644Z JUL 25), Оперативний ЗСУ (010651Z JUL 25), and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010654Z JUL 25) confirm a drone attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol". Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video shows UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. RBC-Ukraine (010647Z JUL 25) corroborates this. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010635Z JUL 25) claims that during a "massive drone attack" on LNR, 35 UAVs were shot down, debris fell on a fuel depot, and one civilian woman was wounded. This report is corroborated by (010636Z JUL 25) reporting damage to a railway section and strikes on a polyclinic. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010658Z JUL 25) reports personnel evacuation and fire fighting at Izhevsk enterprise, confirming impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010658Z JUL 25, 010705Z JUL 25) posts videos of explosions in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010701Z JUL 25, 010723Z JUL 25) posts images and videos of explosions and smoke in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010713Z JUL 25) reports on the UAF drone attack on Izhevsk, including photos and videos of explosions. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010718Z JUL 25, 010720Z JUL 25) posts videos showing the Izhevsk attack and head of Udmurtia confirming casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010719Z JUL 25) reports flight restrictions lifted at Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk airports, indicating temporary nature of previous alerts related to drone threats. Confidence: HIGH.
  • CyberBoroshno (010724Z JUL 25) posts more photos of the damage to the Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant "Kupol." Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010729Z JUL 25) posts new videos showing a large plume of smoke and fire at Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant "Kupol", confirming continued impact and damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirms at least 9 people injured in the Izhevsk "Kupol" plant attack, citing local EMS. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Север.Реалии (010804Z JUL 25) video shows the aftermath of the Luhansk oil depot fire. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (010812Z JUL 25) posts videos of the Izhevsk attack, showing smoke plumes and an explosion at an enterprise. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010816Z JUL 25) reports Izhevsk enterprise attacked by UAF UAVs, citing the head of Udmurtia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010820Z JUL 25) reports killed and severely wounded after UAV attack in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010824Z JUL 25) posts video of the head of Udmurtia confirming killed and wounded after the Izhevsk attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010825Z JUL 25) posts photos claiming UAF UAVs attacked an industrial enterprise in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010824Z JUL 25) posts satellite imagery of the aftermath of a strike on the "Atlas" oil depot in Rostov Oblast on June 23. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Старше Эдды (010840Z JUL 25) commentary on successful UAF deep strikes into Russia, specifically Izhevsk, confirms RUF concern about this capability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010842Z JUL 25) claims three killed and about 20 wounded in Izhevsk and confirms the target was a drone assembly plant. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010842Z JUL 25) posts video of Udmurtia residents visually observing heavy enemy drones flying towards the capital, further corroborating the UAF deep strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (010853Z JUL 25) states that judging by the deaths, the plant workers were hit, confirming civilian casualties at Izhevsk from the UAF strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010911Z JUL 25) reports one 18-year-old killed and seven wounded in LNR from a "massive UAV attack" by UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Рыбарь (010916Z JUL 25) posts videos confirming the UAF drone attack on Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010921Z JUL 25) posts videos of the Izhevsk drone attack, claiming "preliminarily 4 dead" and suggesting internal launch. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (010934Z JUL 25) reports Izhevsk UAV danger regime lifted. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010946Z JUL 25) posts photo and video showing damage and fires in LNR due to "massive drone attack." Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010959Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (011000Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk, including explosions and smoke. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (011002Z JUL 25) posts multiple videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (011008Z JUL 25) posts videos confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant in Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011045Z JUL 25) reports three dead and 35 hospitalized (10 critical) in Izhevsk, reinforcing civilian casualties from the UAF strike. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Военкор Котенок (011045Z JUL 25) confirms new casualty data from Izhevsk. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. New UAF Achievements (Non-Combat):

• German FM Visit: Newly appointed German FM Johann Wadephul visited Ukraine, discussing transfer of additional air defense systems and potential military-industrial production in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
• Polish Ammunition Production: Poland increasing ammunition production fivefold due to RUF threat. Confidence: HIGH.
• Norwegian F-35 Protection: Norwegian F-35s to protect main military aid hub in Poland. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF Counter-Intelligence: SBU successfully detained a RUF agent couple who helped shell Odesa. Confidence: HIGH.
• Ukrainian Air Force Precision Strike: BUKUTUSOV PLUS video claims a highly successful UAF precision strike by MiG-29s with GBU-39 bombs destroying a RUF UAV repair base and drone operators on the southern front. Confidence: HIGH.
• UN Analysis on Olenivka: Internal UN analysis concluding the Olenivka killing was a "carefully planned crime" by the Russian Federation. Confidence: HIGH.
• Germany's NATO Stance: Germany now supports Ukraine's entry into NATO, citing Zelenskyy. Confidence: HIGH.
• IMF Financial Support: Ukraine will receive half a billion dollars from the IMF. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine reports the return of three teenagers from occupied territories to Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
• SBU announced Nikita Mikhalkov, a prominent Russian film director and public figure, has been placed on a wanted list in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
• US Congress is demanding Russia return abducted Ukrainian children. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine (010345Z JUL 25) confirms the return of 3 teenagers from Russian-occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine (010339Z JUL 25) reports Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, stated Russia must move to trilateral negotiations to end the war and stop stalling. Confidence: HIGH.
• Canada has provided $1.7 billion to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets, indicating continued financial support from allies. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports (010357Z JUL 25) that Ukrainian forces have "demilitarized" 970 Russian personnel in the past day. UAF General Staff (010357Z JUL 25) and Operatyvny ZSU (010357Z JUL 25) corroborate this, and RBC-Ukraine (010400Z JUL 25) repeats the claim. Confidence: MEDIUM (on exact numbers); HIGH (on reported daily enemy losses by UAF).
• RBC-Ukraine (010441Z JUL 25) reports the US will transfer a large batch of JDAM systems to Israel, indicating continued US military aid transfers to allies. Confidence: HIGH.
• Two Mayors (010458Z JUL 25) confirm Poland is increasing ammunition production by 5 times, directly supporting UAF logistical needs. Confidence: HIGH.
• 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (010503Z JUL 25) posts a video of "Night training with Ukrainian know-how," indicating continuous training and innovation within UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
• STERNENKO (010509Z JUL 25) posts a video of Ukrainian soldiers with numerous drones and an ATV, with a message appealing for donations, highlighting continued public support and volunteer efforts for UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine (010530Z JUL 25) publishes analysis on increasing global water conflicts, linking it to global security and Ukraine, indicating proactive geopolitical awareness. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine (010547Z JUL 25) reports on record Euro exchange rate against Hryvnia, indicating economic reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
• General Staff of UAF (010558Z JUL 25) posts photo messages. Confidence: HIGH.
• Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) posts a photo message about Ukraine honoring fallen soldiers with a minute of silence. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reports that the Verkhovna Rada is developing legislation to introduce mandatory quotas (5-10%) for enterprises to employ veterans, indicating government efforts to support veterans. Confidence: HIGH.
• Operatyvny ZSU (010606Z JUL 25) reports US Congress published a bipartisan resolution demanding Russia return abducted Ukrainian children. Confidence: HIGH.
• General Staff of UAF (010633Z JUL 25) posts multiple photos and a video message emphasizing the importance of soldier training for unit effectiveness, enemy elimination, and soldier survival, indicating a focus on personnel readiness. Confidence: HIGH.
• Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration (010640Z JUL 25), posts images of new local fire stations in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating efforts to bolster emergency response capability in communities. Confidence: HIGH.
• BUKUTUSOV PLUS (010643Z JUL 25) reports on the death of Russian actor Vadim Alfyorov, who allegedly became a mercenary and was killed by a drone strike and whose body was left for six months, highlighting Russian casualties and poor evacuation. Confidence: HIGH.
• Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (010701Z JUL 25) provides operational information for Southern Ukraine, indicating continued UAF situational awareness and reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010704Z JUL 25) posts a video of a Taekwondo coach offering rehabilitation to veterans, indicating a proactive approach to veteran welfare and reintegration. Confidence: HIGH.
• RBC-Ukraine (010714Z JUL 25) posts photo message on veteran employment, highlighting ongoing government and business efforts to support returning soldiers. Confidence: HIGH.
• Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) reports Syrskyi increasing basic general training time, indicating UAF adaptive training and doctrine. Confidence: HIGH.
• General Staff of UAF (010722Z JUL 25) posts photos from a meeting regarding countering Russian strike UAVs, demonstrating strategic adaptation to current threats. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010728Z JUL 25) reports SBU detained another GRU agent who was adjusting attacks on energy facilities in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating successful counter-intelligence operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (010742Z JUL 25) posts a photo message appealing for support in public and less public activities, indicating ongoing fundraising efforts for UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010753Z JUL 25) reports on dollar and euro exchange rates, which indicates UAF is monitoring economic indicators. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора (010801Z JUL 25) posts videos and photo messages on international child protection practices being implemented across Ukraine, indicating efforts to protect children affected by the conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (010817Z JUL 25) posts photo message about an online meeting with families of defenders from various brigades, indicating continued support for POW families. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010819Z JUL 25) posts photo message on Denmark replacing Poland at the head of the EU Council, indicating continued EU cooperation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (010842Z JUL 25) posts photo messages about new school buses delivered to educational institutions in Kharkiv Oblast, showing continued efforts to rebuild civilian infrastructure and services. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (010847Z JUL 25) posts photo messages inviting to a project "People of the Future" at a "Camp at the Stable," likely a humanitarian or rehabilitation initiative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) reports GUR details regarding the explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010905Z JUL 25) posts a photo message mocking the RUF "demilitarization" plan for Ukraine, indicating high UAF morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010908Z JUL 25) posts a photo message about the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers wanting to officially prohibit obtaining professional education for conscripts after 25 years, indicating internal policy discussions related to mobilization and education during wartime. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010924Z JUL 25) posts video of aerial reconnaissance mission with multiple drones, including "POSIPAKA" branded ones, flying over agricultural fields and a village, indicating continued UAF ISR and targeting capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (010928Z JUL 25) video shows Ukrainian soldiers thanking subscribers for help with acquiring an EW system for an evacuation vehicle, highlighting continued public support for specific equipment needs. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010945Z JUL 25) reports Ukraine received a half-billion dollar tranche from the IMF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on 9 RUF servicemen suspected of brutal treatment of civilians in Kyiv Oblast, confirming UAF's continued pursuit of justice for war crimes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011040Z JUL 25) reports Norway will invest in Ukrainian defense industry. This is a significant positive development for UAF military-industrial complex and long-term sustainment. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) posts multiple images of a fundraising appeal from the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine for equipment and property restoration. This indicates continued reliance on public support and specific needs for recovery from combat. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (012222Z JUL 25) posts a bar chart about fuel prices in Ukraine, with a caption "Every hryvnia - for the needs of the Defense Forces of Ukraine." This indicates a continued focus on economic stability to support the war effort. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video shows GUR designers converting long-range drones into FPV drones. This indicates UAF's continued innovation and adaptation in drone warfare. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (011036Z JUL 25) posts photos and a statement about an online meeting with families of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, which is part of the Ground Forces. This highlights continued UAF efforts to support the families of service members. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (011040Z JUL 25) posts multiple photos and video of rowing competitions at the Institute of Naval Forces in Odesa. This indicates continued military training and morale-boosting activities despite ongoing conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Президентська бригада ЗСУ (011050Z JUL 25) video from a UAF pilot/engineer named "Shef" discusses UAF's advantages in drone warfare ("super solutions" and rapid adaptation). This boosts confidence in UAF's technical and tactical superiority. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Offensive: RUF maintains significant offensive capability, particularly concentrated in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar) with confirmed ground advances into the Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. Deployment of Kadyrovites to Zaporizhzhia indicates preparation for a potential new major offensive. Use of motorcyclist attacks and UGVs signals tactical adaptations. Claimed "liberation" of Dachne in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast indicates expanded ground offensive reach. Rybar's report (010500Z JUL 25) confirms consistent incremental gains along the Mokri Yaly river. RUF claim of forcing the Mokri Yaly river and breaking through towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (010533Z JUL 25), if verified, demonstrates significant penetration capability. RUF claims near Tyotkino, Sumy front (010604Z JUL 25), indicate continued ground assault capability in border areas. MoD Russia (010630Z JUL 25) video highlights active artillery support to ground operations. Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) shows 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operations targeting UAF transport and comms, indicating specialized capabilities against logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010802Z JUL 25) claims a large UAF deployment point was destroyed near Snihurivka, indicating continued capability for precision strikes against UAF personnel concentrations. Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) reports continuous clashes yesterday across multiple axes, confirming sustained ground offensive capabilities. MoD Russia (010930Z JUL 25) video shows precision strike capability against a structure in Raiskoye. Colonelcassad (010941Z JUL 25) video showing sustained shelling/bombing operations confirms continued fire support for ground operations. Два майора (010950Z JUL 25) video showing ambush tactics indicates continued special operations capabilities. Воин DV (010955Z JUL 25) map of claimed gains in Southern Donetsk indicates an ongoing focus on ground offensives. Народная милиция ДНР (011001Z JUL 25) video shows the destruction of UAF armored vehicles, confirming continued anti-armor capabilities. Colonelcassad (012201Z JUL 25) video detailing strikes on various UAF targets confirms precision targeting capabilities for ground offensive support. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Deep Strike: RUF demonstrates sustained capacity for massed missile and Shahed UAV attacks across Ukraine's depth, targeting critical infrastructure, military facilities, and civilian areas. Confirmed successful strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River near the Dnipropetropavsk Oblast border. The UAV attack on the Volgograd airfield, though by UAF, highlights the vulnerability of air assets to drone strikes, something RUF is also capable of. Confirmed drone attack on a military enterprise in Izhevsk (010609Z JUL 25, 010611Z JUL 25, 010624Z JUL 25, 010644Z JUL 25, 010651Z JUL 25, 010654Z JUL 25) demonstrates UAF deep strike capability against Russian military industrial complex. RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (010639Z JUL 25) demonstrates continued missile capability against rear areas. Confirmed Shahed strikes on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia (010632Z JUL 25) demonstrate continued deep strike capability against strategic targets. Colonelcassad (010702Z JUL 25) shows a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point, highlighting the continued use of heavy glide bombs. TASS (010708Z JUL 25) confirms "Geran-2" UAV strike on a UAF temporary deployment point, indicating persistent targeting of personnel/equipment. ASTRA (010819Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Kamianske district. ТАСС (010820Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Izhevsk. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reports attack on energy infrastructure in Stepnohirska community, showing continued targeting of critical civilian infrastructure. TASS (010922Z JUL 25) reports Russian AD shot down three Storm Shadow and three HIMARS, confirming UAF's continued long-range strike capabilities. Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) claims "Geranium" drones are being used directly on the front line, indicating a potential increase in localized deep strike capabilities. Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued long-range strike capability against civilian areas. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Unmanned Systems: Extensive and evolving use of FPV, reconnaissance, and strike UAVs for ISR, targeting, and kinetic strikes. Continued development and deployment of new drone types. Reports of active RUF efforts to counter Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Colonelcassad video (010333Z JUL 25) highlights RUF's sophisticated drone reconnaissance capabilities, including identification of UAF C2, logistics, and potential minefields. Colonelcassad (010504Z JUL 25) video showing a "frontline laboratory" for studying enemy drones and improving EW further confirms RUF's commitment to counter-UAV and EW capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) appealing for drones highlights ongoing RUF reliance on and demand for UAVs. Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) video demonstrates continued use of drones for targeting UAF communications. Colonelcassad (010732Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show defeat of UAF "Baba Yaga" drone, indicating continued RUF efforts to counter large UAF drones. Народная милиция ДНР (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show a disabled UAF ATV, indicating continued use of drone reconnaissance and targeting. MoD Russia (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming successful destruction of dozens of enemy UAVs by mobile air surveillance posts, indicating active RUF counter-drone capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010837Z JUL 25) posts drone footage from the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued RUF drone reconnaissance. ТАСС (010922Z JUL 25) reports 173 UAVs shot down, indicating the high volume of drone activity from UAF. Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) claims "Geranium" drones are deployed on the front line. Colonelcassad (012201Z JUL 25) video confirms pervasive RUF drone use for reconnaissance and targeting, including identifying EW and communication antennas. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Precision Fires: Continued effective use of FABs (Chasiv Yar), Lancet loitering munitions, and TOS-1A systems. Colonelcassad (010702Z JUL 25) FAB-500 strike further confirms this capability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Pervasive EW employment, actively degrading Ukrainian C2 and ISR capabilities. Colonelcassad (010504Z JUL 25) video showing specialists working on EW, confirming continued focus on this capability. Colonelcassad (012201Z JUL 25) video shows specific targeting of UAF EW and communication antennas, confirming sophisticated EW capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Foreign Fighter Integration: Continued reliance on and integration of foreign fighters. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Air Support: Colonelcassad (010602Z JUL 25) video showing a Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter in flight indicates continued RUF air support capabilities for ground operations. Два майора (010742Z JUL 25) discussing re-evaluation of combat helicopters suggests ongoing adaptation of air support tactics. Confidence: HIGH.
• Intentions:
  • Donbas Seizure: Primary objective remains the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, with main efforts focused on Pokrovsk and Toretsk, and continued pressure on Chasiv Yar and Lyman. RUF claims of taking positions near Bilohorivka (Luhansk) and advances along Mokri Yaly (Southern Donetsk) reinforce this. RUF claims of breakthrough to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via Mokri Yaly (010533Z JUL 25) signal an intent for deeper penetration. RUF claims near Tyotkino, Sumy front, show intent to continue ground operations in border regions. Colonelcassad (010812Z JUL 25) claiming a change of power in Malinivka indicates continued intent for territorial control. Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) reports on claimed territorial changes in June, indicating RUF's persistent intent for territorial expansion. Liveuamap Source (010907Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) confirms ongoing RUF offensive intent across key axes. MoD Russia (010930Z JUL 25) confirms targeted strikes on Raiskoye, indicating continued efforts to degrade UAF positions. Colonelcassad (010941Z JUL 25) video of sustained strikes indicates intent to clear and advance. Воин DV (010955Z JUL 25) map emphasizes RUF intent to expand territorial control. Janus Putkonen (011144Z JUL 25) claims Luhansk is completely liberated, reflecting RUF's stated intent. Сливочный каприз (011352Z JUL 25) identifying operational areas Kurakhove-Oleksiyivka implies continued focused intent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Buffer Zone Creation: Continued efforts to establish and expand a "buffer zone" in border areas (Kharkiv, Sumy). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Degradation of Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity: Systematically targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure, military administrative centers, and industrial facilities. Confirmed strikes on industrial enterprises and residential areas in Zaporizhzhia (010518Z JUL 25) underscore this intent. Confirmed strikes on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia (010632Z JUL 25) further demonstrate this intent. Missile strike on Kamianske district (010639Z JUL 25) suggests intent to disrupt logistics or industrial capacity. TASS (010708Z JUL 25) reporting on "Geran-2" strike on UAF temporary deployment point, and Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) showing strikes on UAF transport and communications, indicate persistent intent to degrade UAF military capabilities. Басурин о главном (010751Z JUL 25) claim of "smashed Ukrainian defense industry" highlights this intent. ASTRA (010819Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Kamianske, reinforcing intent to inflict casualties. ТАСС (010820Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Izhevsk, reinforcing intent to inflict casualties and disrupt military production. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reporting attack on energy infrastructure indicates continued intent to degrade critical infrastructure. ТАСС (010922Z JUL 25) reporting on AD intercepts of Storm Shadow and HIMARS confirms the ongoing intent to defend against UAF long-range strikes and degrade their capabilities. Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) claiming Geraniums on the front line suggests an intent to use them for direct engagement and disruption of UAF frontline operations. РБК-Україна (010959Z JUL 25), Оперативний ЗСУ (011000Z JUL 25), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (011002Z JUL 25), STERNENKO (011008Z JUL 25) reporting on UAF strikes on "Kupol" plant, confirms UAF's intent to degrade RUF military-industrial capacity. Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, indicating continued intent to disrupt UAF logistics/deployments. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Information Control and Influence: Maintain robust IO campaigns to shape domestic and international narratives, undermine Ukrainian morale and international support. Intensified IO against countries like Azerbaijan. The "Операция Z" video on captured "traitors" (010326Z JUL 25) reinforces RUF's intent to control domestic narratives and deter internal dissent. TASS publishing FSB documents on "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" from 1941 (010510Z JUL 25) demonstrates an intent to draw historical parallels to discredit contemporary Ukrainian resistance. RUF's marking July 1st as "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" (010502Z JUL 25, 010549Z JUL 25) indicates an intent to boost military morale and public support. FSB claim of UAF chemical weapons cache (010553Z JUL 25) signifies intent to create a casus belli or justify future actions. TASS claim of UAF drone attack on civilians in Kurakhove basement (010601Z JUL 25) signifies intent to portray UAF as war criminals. Mash na Donbasse videos (010639Z JUL 25, 010653Z JUL 25) showing damage to a marketplace in Donetsk and attributing it to shelling aim to portray UAF as targeting civilian areas. TASS reports (010635Z JUL 25) of UAF drone attack on Luhansk railway and polyclinic aim to portray UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure and cause civilian casualties. Operativny ZSU (010659Z JUL 25) reports Pasechnik framing Luhansk oil depot fire as "debris falling," which is a defensive framing of a UAF strike. Mash na Donbasse (010706Z JUL 25) provides photos claiming to show the aftermath of a "massive UAV attack" by UAF on Luhansk. TASS (010718Z JUL 25) reporting on increased casualties in Donetsk from UAF shelling. ASTRA (010720Z JUL 25) and TASS (010658Z JUL 25) confirming casualties from Izhevsk attack without attributing blame can still be used to portray UAF as harming civilians. ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirming Izhevsk casualties and blaming UAF attack. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (010703Z JUL 25) publishing claimed UAF corps composition suggests an intent to demonstrate intelligence penetration and capabilities. Kotsnews (010704Z JUL 25) reporting on veteran psychologist training shows intent to address social impacts of the war. TASS (010712Z JUL 25) and ASTRA (010719Z JUL 25) reports on charging Ilya Varlamov indicate persistent intent to suppress dissent and control information. TASS (010723Z JUL 25) reporting on the dismissal of a Dagestan official shows intent to address internal issues (corruption or political dissent). TASS (010734Z JUL 25) reporting on verdict for Yevgenia Gutsul on July 4th coinciding with Ursula von der Leyen's visit demonstrates intent to influence political narratives. TASS (010740Z JUL 25) highlights social support for "Mother-Heroines" to bolster domestic morale. Басурин о главном (010742Z JUL 25) highlighting a French politician tearing a NATO flag indicates an intent to amplify anti-NATO sentiment and sow discord among allies. Воин DV (010800Z JUL 25) photo messages on Veterans Day reinforces morale. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (010806Z JUL 25) video on alleged UAF chemical weapons reinforces false flag. ТАСС (010809Z JUL 25) reports on charges against opera singer, indicating continued suppression of dissent. ТАСС (010814Z JUL 25) reports on bribery accusation. ТАСС (010816Z JUL 25) reports on "Crocus" case. Alex Parker Returns (010823Z JUL 25) posts a grievance message to stir social discontent. ТАСС (010831Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered aid for "victims of UAF terrorism," directly framing UAF actions as terrorism for domestic consumption. ТАСС (010833Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered support for Russian messenger development, emphasizing information control and digital sovereignty. ТАСС (010841Z JUL 25) posts Moskal’kova calling for condemnation of Kyiv based on UN data of alleged UAF killings and torture, intensifying the IO to discredit UAF. Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) reports on claimed territorial gains, which serves as a propaganda tool. ТАСС (010845Z JUL 25) reports on tightening foreign agent legislation, indicating continued suppression of dissent. Kotsnews (010847Z JUL 25) comments on Azerbaijan media, indicating continued focus on regional IO. Alex Parker Returns (010850Z JUL 25) posts anti-Israel and pro-Palestine video, showing intent to inject new geopolitical narratives. ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reporting on the arrest of Bakir Safarov, which serves the law and order IO. ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reports Kyrgyz President Zhaparov's visit, highlighting coordinated diplomatic efforts. ТАСС (010915Z JUL 25) reports Safarov's non-admission of guilt. ТАСС (010919Z JUL 25) reports the Federation Council Committee recommended approving a law imposing a fine of up to 20,000 rubles for failing to report relocation to a military enlistment office. This suggests efforts to tighten military registration and potentially facilitate mobilization or conscription. Операция Z (010923Z JUL 25) and Alex Parker Returns (010924Z JUL 25) report on Azerbaijan's criminal case, amplifying the narrative of Russian wrongdoing and escalating the information war. ТАСС (010925Z JUL 25) indicates ongoing centralized military reporting. Новости Москвы (010933Z JUL 25) highlighting prosecution of bloggers' followers for harassment, reinforcing social control. ТАСС (010934Z JUL 25) reporting Sergey Zhukov in "Mirotvorets" database is part of RUF's propaganda to highlight Ukraine's "extremism." Басурин о главном (010948Z JUL 25) on "educating their children" indicates long-term intent for cultural assimilation in occupied areas. ТАСС (010952Z JUL 25) on another arrest of blogger's follower, reinforcing social control. Z комитет + карта СВО (011000Z JUL 25) promoting "Veterans Day" indicates intent to boost morale. ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) posts a photo of Dmitry Peskov and reports his statements from a briefing. This signifies continued direct communication from the Kremlin to control narrative. ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) reports Peskov stated attempts are being made to cause a split in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, framing external influence. Alex Parker Returns (011003Z JUL 25) posts about Azerbaijan announcing the gradual closure of Russian-language schools. This serves as RUF IO to portray Azerbaijan as hostile or to justify Russian actions. Рыбарь (011004Z JUL 25) posts a video titled "Azerbaijan continues media attack," reinforcing the narrative of Azerbaijan's aggression in the information space. WarGonzo (011005Z JUL 25) poses the question "Why is Baku concerned about crimes in Yekaterinburg and what does oil have to do with it?", directly linking the Safarov case to geopolitical interests and attempting to discredit Azerbaijan's actions. Операция Z (011007Z JUL 25) posts a video claiming FSB discovered a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, a major false flag or propaganda element. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (011106Z JUL 25) promoting Russian language t-shirts for cultural/patriotic influence. Alex Parker Returns (011305Z JUL 25) post on historical grievances with Azerbaijan, indicating long-term IO to fuel anti-Azerbaijani sentiment. ТАСС (011417Z JUL 25) reports prosecutors demanded a 9-year prison sentence for the head of Gagauzia for illegal financing, indicating continued Russian influence in Moldovan politics. ТАСС (011602Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General's Office opened a criminal case regarding the death of two individuals involved in murder cases in Yekaterinburg, escalating diplomatic tension. ТАСС (011743Z JUL 25) video of Peskov's statements, ensuring high-level message dissemination. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Long-term Integration: Continued political and economic integration of occupied territories into the Russian Federation. Confidence: HIGH.
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will maintain sustained high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, aiming for incremental territorial gains, and continue to apply pressure on Chasiv Yar by consolidating gains in the Kanal microdistrict. Continued KAB/KAR launches into Donetsk Oblast. RUF will likely launch further ground probes in Sumy and Kharkiv border regions, supported by continued FAB launches and drone activity. Deep strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and military facilities across the country will continue, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, and now specifically targeting agricultural enterprises in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia, and Kamianske district. Expect continued aggressive IO leveraging military successes and exploiting internal Ukrainian vulnerabilities, including intensified efforts to project internal strength and deter collaboration, and historical propaganda, and potentially new false flag operations related to WMD. Expect continued domestic economic adjustments (e.g., utility tariffs) to support the war effort while maintaining internal stability. RUF will continue to reinforce narratives around "Veterans Day" and internal economic "stability" while suppressing dissent. RUF will continue to publish claims of UAF force composition to bolster their IO narrative. RUF will attempt to confirm and exploit claimed territorial gains (e.g., Malinivka, Luhansk "liberation"). RUF will continue attacks on critical energy infrastructure. RUF will continue to focus on internal law and order issues, using arrests and legal proceedings for IO. RUF will maintain diplomatic engagement with Central Asian partners to solidify regional influence. RUF will continue to escalate tensions with Azerbaijan through information operations and legal actions. RUF will continue to tighten military registration laws to bolster force generation. RUF will continue to provide regular MoD briefings to control the information narrative. RUF will continue to conduct reconnaissance and mapping of forward areas (e.g., Konstantinovka-Nelepovka, Kurakhove-Oleksiyivka). RUF will continue to utilize motorcycle-mounted assault groups despite their vulnerability to UAF strikes. RUF will likely increase use of "Geranium" drones directly on the front lines to support ground offensives. Confidence: HIGH.
  • MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RUF initiates a major ground offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front, leveraging the newly deployed Kadyrovite units, aiming for a significant breakthrough or encirclement of key UAF defensive lines, potentially threatening major urban centers. This would be coupled with sustained massed missile and drone strikes aimed at overwhelming UAF air defense and critical infrastructure across Ukraine, including targeting new areas like Izhevsk (military enterprises), Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Nizhnekamsk. Confidence: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Motorcyclist Attacks: Confirmed use of motorcycle groups in Novonikolaevka capture. Confidence: HIGH.
• UGV Deployment: First confirmed combat deployment of a remote-controlled, armed UGV in Pokrovsk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAV-heavy Assaults (Siversk): Significant increase in RUF UAV crews for assault actions in Siversk. Confidence: HIGH.
• Targeting Pattern for TCCs: Confirmed successive Shahed strikes on TCC (military enlistment office) buildings. Confidence: HIGH.
• Expanded Deep Strike Range: Claims of RUF strikes on railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Confirmed drone strikes on agricultural enterprises in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia. RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (010639Z JUL 25) demonstrates extended range and targeting of rear areas. Confidence: HIGH.
• New Drone Type "Chernika": Reported first use of a new drone type in Kharkiv. Confidence: HIGH.
• EW Integration in Ground Offensive: Pervasive EW employment, actively degrading Ukrainian C2 and ISR capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS video confirms RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroyed a UAF truck with an anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF AD activity over Rostov Oblast indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts into Russian territory. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF drone reconnaissance actively identifies specific UAF communication systems, patch antennas, and drone repeaters, indicating a refined ISR and targeting process. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF claims high success rate in destroying UAF UAV control points and Starlink stations (TASS, 010415Z JUL 25), indicating a focus on degrading UAF C2 and ISR. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF is escalating narrative control via state media, with TASS (010446Z JUL 25) reporting on "meat assaults" to describe UAF defensive actions near Kupyansk. Confidence: HIGH.
• Rybar's video analysis (010500Z JUL 25) shows detailed, consistent small-unit advances along the Mokri Yaly river with methodical clearing of Ukrainian positions, suggesting a deliberate, incremental ground assault tactic. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF's use of a "frontline laboratory" (Colonelcassad, 010504Z JUL 25) for studying enemy drones and improving EW systems indicates an adaptive and proactive approach to counter-UAV warfare. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF claim of forcing the Mokri Yaly river (010533Z JUL 25) and breaking through towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests a significant tactical shift or ambition for deep ground penetration. Confidence: HIGH.
• FSB's claim of a UAF chemical weapons cache (010553Z JUL 25) is a key information operation tactical adaptation, likely preparing for future accusations or actions. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claim of UAF drones attacking civilians in Kurakhove basement is a tactical information operation to accuse UAF of war crimes. Confidence: HIGH.
• RUF MoD (010630Z JUL 25) video showing coordinated drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes demonstrates a refined combined arms tactical approach. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS (010708Z JUL 25) confirming "Geran-2" UAV use against a UAF temporary deployment point shows continued reliance and effectiveness of these drones. Confidence: HIGH.
• Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) showing 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade strikes on UAF transport and communications indicates targeted interdiction tactics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (010732Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show defeat of UAF "Baba Yaga" drone, indicating adaptive counter-UAV tactics. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verifiable BDA).
  • Народная милиция ДНР (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show a disabled UAF ATV, indicating continued use of drone reconnaissance and targeting. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • MoD Russia (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming mobile air surveillance post crews from the Tsentr Group of Forces are destroying dozens of enemy UAVs, indicating active RUF counter-drone operations and adaptation to UAF drone threats. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • Colonelcassad (010802Z JUL 25) posts video from "enemy channels" showing UAF launching glide bombs, indicating adaptation to UAF air-dropped munitions. Confidence: HIGH (on video content and UAF strike); MEDIUM (on target and BDA).
  • Старше Эдды (010840Z JUL 25) comments on successful UAF deep strikes by slow, low-flying single targets in Izhevsk, indicating RUF's tactical adaptation to the challenge. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010914Z JUL 25) video showing destruction of "bikers" in Donetsk direction, indicating RUF's continued reliance on motorcycle-mounted assault groups which are vulnerable to UAF kinetic strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010922Z JUL 25) reports RUF AD shot down 173 UAVs, indicating high-volume counter-drone operations are a key tactical adaptation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) claiming "Geranium" drones are used on the front line suggests an adaptation to localized deep strikes and direct support for ground operations. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Два майора (010950Z JUL 25) video showing ambush activities indicates continued use of small, specialized units for close-quarters engagement. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Народная милиция ДНР (011001Z JUL 25) video shows continued use of drones for targeting UAF armored vehicles and infantry. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Colonelcassad (012201Z JUL 25) video shows continued use of drones for reconnaissance, targeting (including EW and communication antennas), and battle damage assessment, confirming sophisticated RUF adaptations in drone warfare. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Воин DV (011045Z JUL 25) video showing drone targeting and destruction of a UAF 2C22 "Bohdana" artillery unit, indicating advanced RUF counter-battery tactics. Confidence: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Personnel: Continued reliance on foreign mercenaries suggests ongoing needs for combat personnel. Public fundraising for equipment also supplements state supply. Confidence: HIGH.
• Equipment/Materiel: Continued public fundraising for critical equipment indicates state supply chains are not fully meeting demand. Damage to 5 Su-34s in Volgograd indicates a significant materiel loss to RUF air power. TASS claim of evacuating an intact Leopard tank from Kursk Oblast (010340Z JUL 25) could be a propaganda effort to showcase material capture and bolster domestic perception of victory. Операция Z (RUF channel) posts appeal for thermal imagers (010421Z JUL 25), indicating equipment shortfalls persist. Fighterbomber video (010421Z JUL 25) shows munitions handling at an airfield, suggesting continued air force logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) appealing for Mavic drones and food/communciation highlights continued reliance on public fundraising for essential battlefield equipment. The continued flow of UAF reports of "demilitarized" RUF personnel (010630Z JUL 25) indicates ongoing personnel and equipment losses for RUF. Два майора (010700Z JUL 25) video with soldiers appealing for material assistance on the Zaporizhzhia Front further highlights persistent equipment shortfalls. Confidence: HIGH.
• Internal Corruption: Allegations of embezzlement in fortification construction (Belgorod) and the arrest of a Deputy Governor could impact local defensive readiness and resource allocation. Confidence: HIGH.
• Maritime Threats: Reports of a seventh civilian vessel linked to Russia being blown up in the Mediterranean indicate a potential new threat to Russian maritime logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
• Russian government providing targeted assistance to coal mining companies, indicating efforts to support critical domestic industries. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS reports the former top manager of the Russian Central Bank, Dmitry Rubinov, is on a wanted list for large-scale fraud, highlighting ongoing internal corruption challenges. Confidence: HIGH.
• Russian police arrested members of a synthetic drug production and distribution group in Khabarovsk Krai (Полиция Хабаровского края, 010433Z JUL 25), highlighting ongoing domestic law enforcement challenges that can divert resources and attention, though this is unlikely to directly impact military logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS reports about 30 people in Russia have been victims of Apple device blocking fraudsters this year, indicating a persistent cybercrime issue that could affect public trust and resource allocation to cybersecurity. Confidence: HIGH.
• Dmitry Islamov, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Energy, reports that the Russian coal industry would have lost 15% (65 million tons) of its output this year without anti-crisis measures, indicating ongoing economic vulnerabilities in critical sectors. Confidence: HIGH.
• The Russian Central Bank's signal to restructure coal miner debt suggests underlying economic stress in the sector requiring state intervention to maintain stability. Confidence: HIGH.
• "Burger Index" rising by 15% in Q1 2025 indicates inflation or rising costs within the Russian consumer market. Confidence: HIGH.
• Price of gas in Europe increased by 40% in H1 2025 (TASS, 010404Z JUL 25), potentially benefiting Russia's energy revenues, but also indicating volatile global energy markets. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS (010441Z JUL 25) reports that the wealth of Russia's richest individuals has grown by over $24.5 billion since the start of the year, indicating a concentration of wealth, potentially contrasting with state needs for military funding from public sources. Confidence: HIGH.
• AKORT's continued non-support for online alcohol sales (TASS, 010518Z JUL 25) is a domestic policy item that shows ongoing regulatory considerations within Russia, though not directly impacting military logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
• ASTRA reports (010539Z JUL 25) a 40% rise in utility tariffs for some Russian cities starting July 1st, potentially impacting public discontent and purchasing power. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS (010605Z JUL 25) reporting on mobile service disconnections for foreigners not providing biometrics, indicating tightening state control which could impact labor availability and logistical support. Confidence: HIGH.
• Север.Реалии (010715Z JUL 25) reports that deputies in Arkhangelsk Oblast requested to join Komi Republic due to "unsolvable problems," indicating localized economic and governance issues that could impact resource allocation or focus. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS (010723Z JUL 25) reports the dismissal of Dagestan State Secretary Magomedov due to a criminal case, highlighting continued internal governance issues and potential resource misallocation. Confidence: HIGH.
• ТАСС (010814Z JUL 25) reports an acting rector is accused of bribery, indicating ongoing anti-corruption or political actions. Confidence: HIGH.
• Новости Москвы (010820Z JUL 25) reports on self-ban on credits by 11.67 million Russians, indicating a potential economic impact on the population. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mash na Donbasse (010825Z JUL 25) posts video showing a traffic jam in Horlivka, indicating potential logistical or civilian movement disruptions in occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010835Z JUL 25) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010852Z JUL 25) report explosion of a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, indicating significant disruption to Russia's covert maritime logistics and potential long-term sustainment. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) confirms the "Vilamoura" tanker explosion, highlighting successful UAF deep-state operations against RUF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010912Z JUL 25) posts a photo of an intact Leopard tank, likely captured, indicating some material gains for RUF (though potentially for propaganda purposes). Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010936Z JUL 25) image claims "over 19 divisions and 8,222 artillery systems" lost by Russia in first half of 2025, which, if true, represents significant materiel attrition. Confidence: MEDIUM (on exact numbers); HIGH (on UAF claims of attrition).
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (010940Z JUL 25) video claiming 32,420 RUF personnel losses in June, highlights ongoing personnel attrition. Confidence: MEDIUM (on exact numbers); HIGH (on UAF claims of attrition).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (011306Z JUL 25) video from GUR confirms resistance movement destroyed railway tracks in Zaporizhzhia, indicating successful targeting of RUF logistical lines. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011001Z JUL 25) reports the Ministry of Industry and Trade intends to oblige foreign manufacturers to use Russian components when localizing cars in Russia. This indicates a domestic policy aimed at increasing self-sufficiency and control over the automotive industry, not directly military but reflects economic strategy. Confidence: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Control: RUF's ability to conduct massed, multi-domain strikes and to coordinate ground offensives across multiple axes indicates a centralized and relatively effective command and control structure. Confidence: HIGH.
• Adaptive Tactics: Rapid adoption of new tactics suggests a degree of tactical flexibility and adaptive C2. Confidence: HIGH.
• Information Operations Coordination: Consistent messaging across various RUF and pro-RUF channels points to a centrally coordinated and adaptive IO effort. The "Операция Z" video (010326Z JUL 25) demonstrates a highly centralized and aggressive IO strategy aimed at reinforcing state control and deterring dissent. TASS publishing FSB documents on "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" from 1941 (010510Z JUL 25) further indicates a coordinated IO effort to frame current events through a historical lens. RUF's marking July 1st as "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" (010502Z JUL 25, 010549Z JUL 25) reflects a coordinated effort to boost internal military morale. The FSB chemical weapon claim (010553Z JUL 25) is a highly coordinated propaganda move. TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims of UAF drones attacking civilians in Kurakhove demonstrate coordinated IO to dehumanize UAF. Mash na Donbasse (010639Z JUL 25, 010653Z JUL 25) videos highlighting civilian damage in Donetsk and attributing it to UAF shelling aim to portray UAF as targeting civilian areas. TASS (010635Z JUL 25, 010636Z JUL 25) reports of UAF drone attack causing civilian casualties and damage to polyclinic/railway in LNR aim to portray UAF as targeting civilian areas. Operativny ZSU (010659Z JUL 25) reports Pasechnik framing Luhansk oil depot fire as "debris falling," which is a defensive framing of a UAF strike. Mash na Donbasse (010706Z JUL 25) provides photos claiming to show the aftermath of a "massive UAV attack" by UAF on Luhansk. TASS (010718Z JUL 25) reporting on increased casualties in Donetsk from UAF shelling. ASTRA (010720Z JUL 25) and TASS (010658Z JUL 25) confirming casualties from Izhevsk attack without attributing blame can still be used to portray UAF as harming civilians. ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirming Izhevsk casualties and blaming UAF attack. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (010703Z JUL 25) publishing claimed UAF corps composition suggests an intent to demonstrate intelligence penetration and capabilities. Kotsnews (010704Z JUL 25) reporting on veteran psychologist training shows intent to address social impacts of the war. TASS (010712Z JUL 25) and ASTRA (010719Z JUL 25) reports on charging Ilya Varlamov, a "foreign agent," reflect coordinated legal and IO efforts to suppress dissent. TASS (010723Z JUL 25) reporting on the dismissal of a Dagestan official due to a criminal case indicates a willingness to remove officials for internal issues, reinforcing central control. TASS (010734Z JUL 25) reporting on verdict for Yevgenia Gutsul on July 4th coinciding with Ursula von der Leyen's visit reflects coordinated political IO. TASS (010740Z JUL 25) highlighting social benefits for "Mother-Heroines" reinforces state support. Басурин о главном (010742Z JUL 25) highlighting a French politician tearing a NATO flag is a coordinated IO effort. Воин DV (010800Z JUL 25) photo messages on Veterans Day. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (010806Z JUL 25) video on alleged UAF chemical weapons. ТАСС (010809Z JUL 25) reports on charges against opera singer. ТАСС (010814Z JUL 25) reports on bribery accusation. ТАСС (010816Z JUL 25) reports on "Crocus" case. Alex Parker Returns (010823Z JUL 25) posts a grievance message to stir social discontent. ТАСС (010831Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered aid for "victims of UAF terrorism," indicating a coordinated propaganda line. ТАСС (010833Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered support for Russian messenger development, highlighting centralized control over digital information. ТАСС (010841Z JUL 25) posts Moskal’kova calling for condemnation of Kyiv, indicating continued coordinated IO to discredit UAF. ТАСС (010845Z JUL 25) reports on tightening foreign agent legislation, indicating a coordinated effort to suppress dissent. Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) posts a summary of claimed territorial changes, reflecting a coordinated effort to frame RUF success. ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reports the arrest of Bakir Safarov, which serves the law and order IO. ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reports Kyrgyz President Zhaparov's visit, indicating coordinated diplomatic efforts. ТАСС (010915Z JUL 25) reports Safarov's non-admission of guilt. ТАСС (010919Z JUL 25) reports on new law regarding military registration, showing coordinated legislative action for force generation. Операция Z (010923Z JUL 25) and Alex Parker Returns (010924Z JUL 25) report on Azerbaijan's criminal case, amplifying the narrative of Russian wrongdoing and escalating the information war. ТАСС (010925Z JUL 25) indicates ongoing centralized military reporting. Новости Москвы (010933Z JUL 25) highlighting prosecution of bloggers' followers for harassment, reinforcing social control. ТАСС (010934Z JUL 25) on Sergey Zhukov in "Mirotvorets" database highlights coordinated efforts to discredit Ukrainian institutions. Басурин о главном (010948Z JUL 25) on "educating their children" indicates a coordinated long-term IO strategy. ТАСС (010952Z JUL 25) on another arrest of blogger's follower, reinforcing the message of internal control. Z комитет + карта СВО (011000Z JUL 25) promoting "Veterans Day" and featuring a military/religious image indicates coordinated efforts to boost morale and national pride. ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) posts a photo of Dmitry Peskov and reports his statements, confirming direct communication from the Kremlin. ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) reports Peskov stated attempts are being made to cause a split in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, framing external influence. Alex Parker Returns (011003Z JUL 25) posts about Azerbaijan announcing the gradual closure of Russian-language schools. This serves as RUF IO to portray Azerbaijan as hostile or to justify Russian actions. Рыбарь (011004Z JUL 25) video on "Azerbaijan continues media attack," reinforcing narrative. WarGonzo (011005Z JUL 25) questions Azerbaijan's motives, attempting to discredit their legal actions. Операция Z (011007Z JUL 25) posts a video claiming FSB discovered a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, a major false flag or propaganda element. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (011106Z JUL 25) promoting Russian language t-shirts for cultural/patriotic influence. Alex Parker Returns (011305Z JUL 25) post on historical grievances with Azerbaijan, indicating long-term IO to fuel anti-Azerbaijani sentiment. ТАСС (011417Z JUL 25) reports on legal action against Gagauzia head, highlighting Russian influence in Moldova. ТАСС (011602Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's criminal case, continuing the escalation of diplomatic tension. ТАСС (011743Z JUL 25) video of Peskov's statements, ensuring high-level message dissemination. ASTRA (011915Z JUL 25) posts multiple images of branded merchandise with a skull/peace symbol. While the content of the merchandise is not directly military, the channel's general focus on opposition media suggests an attempt to appeal to a specific audience, which could be part of a broader, less direct IO strategy. Confidence: HIGH.
• Internal Issues: Reports of "refuseniks" and internal dissent suggest potential C2 challenges related to personnel management and morale, though these appear localized. Corruption related to fortifications and the recent high-profile fraud case highlight systemic issues. Confidence: MEDIUM.
• RUF claims of destroying 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations (TASS, 010415Z JUL 25) suggest a dedicated effort to disrupt UAF C2. Confidence: HIGH.
• TASS (010434Z JUL 25) reports on former Russian Prime Minister Sergey Stepashin discussing historical S-300 capabilities, potentially aiming to project confidence in Russian air defense systems. Confidence: HIGH.
• НгП раZVедка (010434Z JUL 25) posts a video of a concert in North Korea dedicated to "warriors who fought in Kursk Oblast," indicating deep propaganda ties and coordinated messaging with allies. Confidence: HIGH.
• The arrest of a professor in St. Petersburg for a pro-Ukrainian slogan (Север.Реалии, 010557Z JUL 25) highlights RUF's rigid control over internal narratives and suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
• ТАСС (010848Z JUL 25) reports that the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, will serve a moleben and consecrate a memorial to veterans of military operations at the All Saints Church. This is a coordinated spiritual and morale-boosting initiative for combat veterans. Confidence: HIGH.
• Новости Москвы (010911Z JUL 25) reports Yandex opening free access to AI chat with Alice, indicating domestic digital infrastructure development, possibly for internal surveillance or information dissemination. Confidence: HIGH.
• Alex Parker Returns (010911Z JUL 25) posts a video on Florida's Attorney General discussing a giant prison project for illegal migrants, including details of a repurposed airfield. While domestic US news, the Alex Parker Returns channel's decision to highlight it suggests RUF's C2 is interested in demonstrating perceived Western hypocrisy or internal issues, or using it as a reference for its own internal control measures. Confidence: HIGH.
• Север.Реалии (010951Z JUL 25) reports conviction of a Kaliningrad Naval Academy graduate on five charges, indicating ongoing internal security issues and willingness to prosecute military personnel. This could signal C2 efforts to maintain discipline or address disloyalty. Confidence: HIGH.
• NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011043Z JUL 25) video claiming Izhevsk attack was a "demonstration of capabilities" by Ukraine to Western sponsors, and explicitly linking it to German funding for "Lyutyi" drones, is a new, highly targeted RUF information operation designed to create friction between Ukraine and its allies and justify further RUF strikes. Confidence: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Operations: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar) and the Sumy/Kharkiv border regions, successfully repelling numerous RUF assaults. Despite heavy pressure in Chasiv Yar's Kanal microdistrict, UAF is conducting a cohesive fighting withdrawal to prepared positions. Confidence: HIGH.
• Active Defense: UAF is capable of local counter-attacks and clearing operations (e.g., demilitarized buffer zone in Sumy, Oleksiyivka advance, Pryyutne assault). UAF successful UAV attack on a RUF airfield in Volgograd Oblast demonstrates deep strike capability against military targets. UAF drone attack on Izhevsk military enterprise and Crimea military targets (010609Z JUL 25, 010619Z JUL 25, 010644Z JUL 25, 010647Z JUL 25, 010651Z JUL 25, 010654Z JUL 25) demonstrates robust deep strike capabilities. UAF AD successfully destroyed 47/52 enemy UAVs overnight, indicating high readiness and effectiveness (010629Z JUL 25, 010630Z JUL 25, 010631Z JUL 25, 010632Z JUL 25). UAF AD successfully destroys a RUF UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (010629Z JUL 25). Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (010712Z JUL 25) posts photos of UAF strikes on enemy locations, fire positions, and rear areas in the south, indicating continued offensive actions. Оперативний ЗСУ (010728Z JUL 25) reports SBU detained another GRU agent who was adjusting attacks on energy facilities in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating successful counter-intelligence operations. STERNENKO (010803Z JUL 25) posts video showcasing over 200,000 FPV drones procured for UAF, showcasing successful strikes against armored vehicles and naval targets. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010819Z JUL 25) posts video of Ukrainian intelligence showing UJ-26 "Bober" drone strikes on Pantsir-S1, multiple radars (Niobi-SV, Protivnik-GE), and Su-30 fighter jet at Saki airfield in Crimea. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010816Z JUL 25) reports suspicion against commander of the 44th separate aviation regiment of special purpose for long-range aviation for the RF armed forces, indicating UAF legal action against RUF commanders. РБК-Україна (010835Z JUL 25) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010852Z JUL 25) report the explosion of a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, indicating successful deep-state operations against RUF logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) provides GUR details on the tanker explosion. STERNENKO (010924Z JUL 25) posts video of aerial reconnaissance with multiple drones, confirming continued ISR capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ (010936Z JUL 25) image claims significant RUF materiel losses, indicating UAF's continued ability to inflict damage. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (010940Z JUL 25) video shows drone strikes on enemy personnel and equipment in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar, confirming active offensive operations and targeting. Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on criminal proceedings against 9 RUF servicemen, indicating continued UAF pursuit of justice for war crimes. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011040Z JUL 25) reports Norway will invest in Ukrainian defense industry, which contributes to long-term UAF sustainment. Оперативний ЗСУ (011306Z JUL 25) video confirms partisan operations against RUF railway logistics in Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) posts about fundraising for "Rubizh" brigade, confirming ongoing support for UAF units. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (012222Z JUL 25) posts about fuel prices supporting defense, indicating economic efforts to support forces. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video shows GUR designers converting long-range drones into FPV drones, indicating UAF's continued innovation in drone warfare. Confidence: HIGH.
• Air Defense: UAF AD remains largely effective in intercepting a significant percentage of RUF missiles and UAVs, despite saturation attacks. UAF AF issued a new alert for air threats at 010327Z JUL 25 and 010422Z JUL 25 for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) shows effective AD against Geran drone over Odesa. UAF AF (010610Z JUL 25) issues new warning. UAF AF (010612Z JUL 25) warns of ballistic missile threat in alert areas. UAF AF (010632Z JUL 25) and RBC-Ukraine (010632Z JUL 25, 010633Z JUL 25) confirm successful interception of 47/52 UAVs overnight. UAF AF (010658Z JUL 25) reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast, indicating persistent air threat requiring AD response. Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) and UAF General Staff (010722Z JUL 25) highlight adaptive training and strategic focus on countering RUF UAVs, reinforcing readiness. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010730Z JUL 25) issues new ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast. РБК-Україна (010731Z JUL 25) confirms new air raid alerts in a number of oblasts due to ballistic missile threat. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010729Z JUL 25) reports a new air alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010754Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010759Z JUL 25) reports new threat of aviation-launched weapons in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010835Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target heading towards Zaporizhzhia from the south. РБК-Україна (010836Z JUL 25) confirms the high-speed target. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010940Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011357Z JUL 25) reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming ongoing AD vigilance. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAV Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone operations for kinetic strikes, reconnaissance, and counter-battery fire. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (010503Z JUL 25) posts video of "Night training with Ukrainian know-how," indicating continuous efforts to enhance drone capabilities. STERNENKO (010509Z JUL 25) also posts video showing multiple drones, indicating ongoing supply and use. UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) showing dead Russian soldier in "anti-drone pose" confirms UAF drone effectiveness. Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video highlights UJ-26 "Bober" UAV operations against Russian radar, air defense, and aircraft in Crimea. RBC-Ukraine (010647Z JUL 25) confirms GUR drone strikes in Crimea. CyberBoroshno (010644Z JUL 25), Шеф Hayabusa (010644Z JUL 25), Оперативний ЗСУ (010651Z JUL 25), and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010654Z JUL 25) confirm UAF drone attack on Izhevsk military enterprise. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (010742Z JUL 25) appeals for support for "public and less public activities," indicating ongoing volunteer support for drone operations. STERNENKO (010803Z JUL 25) video confirms over 200,000 FPV drones procured for UAF and their successful combat use. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010819Z JUL 25) video shows UJ-26 "Bober" drone strikes in Crimea. STERNENKO (010924Z JUL 25) video of multiple UAF drones conducting reconnaissance, confirming ongoing high-level drone capabilities. Zvиздец Мангусту (010928Z JUL 25) video shows UAF soldiers with an EW system, highlighting proactive counter-drone measures and continued need for support. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (010940Z JUL 25) video shows drone footage of strikes, confirming continued use of drones for offensive operations. РБК-Україна (010959Z JUL 25), Оперативний ЗСУ (011000Z JUL 25), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (011002Z JUL 25), STERNENKO (011008Z JUL 25) confirming SBU drone strikes on "Kupol" plant, showcasing advanced UAF drone capabilities for deep strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video showing GUR converting long-range drones to FPV drones, confirming UAF's continued innovation in drone warfare. Confidence: HIGH.
• Counter-Intelligence: Successful SBU operations against RUF agent networks indicate robust counter-intelligence capabilities. SBU places Russian film director Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list (010340Z JUL 25). Оперативний ЗСУ (010728Z JUL 25) reports SBU detained another GRU agent. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010816Z JUL 25) reports suspicion against a Russian aviation regiment commander, indicating continued legal efforts against RUF commanders. Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on criminal proceedings against 9 RUF servicemen, reinforcing UAF's counter-intelligence and legal efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
• Logistical Sustainment: UAF demonstrates continued logistical support to frontline units, supplemented by significant public and international aid. Confidence: HIGH.
• Leadership and Morale: High-level strategic meetings (Zelenskyy with military leadership, including German FM) indicate continued coordinated governance. UAF General Staff (010558Z JUL 25) and Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) messages about a minute of silence for fallen soldiers reinforce national unity and remembrance. General Staff of UAF (010633Z JUL 25) emphasizes soldier training. UAF General Staff (010722Z JUL 25) meeting on countering UAVs indicates proactive strategic leadership. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010732Z JUL 25) highlighting the importance of a strong defense line shows strategic thinking and calls for better fortifications. Координаційний штаб з питань поводжения з військовополоненими (010817Z JUL 25) posts about meeting with families of POWs, demonstrating continued support for military families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010953Z JUL 25) video revealing RUF discrimination against L/DPR prisoners could be used to boost morale among UAF and proxy forces. РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) fundraising for "Rubizh" brigade indicates continued high morale and public support for frontline units. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (012222Z JUL 25) posts about fuel prices for defense, indicating leadership's focus on sustainment. Confidence: HIGH.
• Personnel Management: Legislative changes to provide mobilization deferments for volunteers indicate proactive efforts to manage force generation. RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reporting on veteran employment quotas, indicating proactive efforts for personnel reintegration. General Staff of UAF (010633Z JUL 25) emphasizing soldier training indicates ongoing efforts to maintain personnel quality. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010704Z JUL 25) highlighting veteran rehabilitation services indicates efforts to maintain force readiness and care for personnel. RBC-Ukraine (010714Z JUL 25) highlights veteran employment initiatives. Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) reports Syrskyi increasing basic general training time for UAV defense, indicating adaptive human resource management. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010801Z JUL 25) highlights child protection, indirectly indicating need to mitigate social impact of war on children. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010908Z JUL 25) posts about the Cabinet of Ministers' proposal to prohibit professional education for conscripts over 25, which, if implemented, could free up personnel for military service or other roles. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine confirm the aftermath of a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, showing a burning civilian vehicle. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian areas. Confidence: HIGH.
• Photos from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirm communal services are working to clear debris and damage from the recent RUF strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF AF continues to issue critical real-time warnings for drone threats in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF General Staff (010501Z JUL 25 and 010511Z JUL 25) provides updated operational information as of 08:00 01.07.2025, confirming consistent internal reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF Naval Forces confirm current maritime situation (010333Z JUL 25) showing no Russian naval presence in Black Sea missile carriers. Confidence: HIGH.
• UAF reports "demilitarization" of 970 Russian personnel (Operatyvny ZSU, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, General Staff, RBC-Ukraine, 010357Z JUL 25-010400Z JUL 25), indicating continued effectiveness in inflicting casualties. Confidence: MEDIUM (on exact numbers); HIGH (on reported daily enemy losses by UAF).
• Oleksandr Vilkul (010432Z JUL 25) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning, demonstrating effective local governance and control. Confidence: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010440Z JUL 25) reports on traffic disruptions due to attacks, showing transparent reporting to the public. Confidence: HIGH.
• Valeriy Borovyk, a UAV manufacturer founder, expresses concern (010552Z JUL 25) about Kyiv's air defense deficit, indicating a perceived vulnerability. Confidence: HIGH.
• "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010557Z JUL 25) gives a "Good morning" message, reflecting positive morale in UAF channels. Confidence: HIGH.
• КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (010606Z JUL 25) posts a memorial graphic for a fallen soldier from Kyiv, highlighting sacrifice and memory. Confidence: HIGH.
• Oleg Syniehubov (010640Z JUL 25) shows photos of increasing local fire station networks in Kharkiv, indicating efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure support. Confidence: HIGH.
• Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (010701Z JUL 25) provides operational updates for Southern Ukraine, demonstrating active reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
• STERNENKO (010701Z JUL 25) posts a photo appealing for donations for "rusoriz" (Russian slicer/cutter), indicating ongoing volunteer support for UAF and offensive intent. Confidence: HIGH.
• РБК-Україна (010738Z JUL 25) reports Syrskyi stating the term for basic general training will be increased from 49 to 51 days, confirming adaptive training protocols. Confidence: HIGH.
• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010813Z JUL 25) reports traffic restored in Zaporizhzhia. Confidence: HIGH.
• Олександр Вілкул (010804Z JUL 25) posts photos of children at a summer camp, indicating efforts to maintain civilian normalcy and support for children affected by the war. Confidence: HIGH.
• Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (010842Z JUL 25) posts photo messages about new school buses, indicating efforts to maintain education and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010842Z JUL 25) posts photo message about official position of Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine regarding statements of Dnipro mayor Borys Filatov, indicating internal governance and communication. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010924Z JUL 25) video shows communal services and residents clearing debris and repairing damage to residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting the resilience and ongoing efforts to restore normalcy. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) from UAF General Staff reports on clashes repelled across multiple axes, confirming active defense. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (010928Z JUL 25) video shows soldiers with a newly acquired EW system for an evacuation vehicle, indicating adaptive measures to counter RUF drones. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010945Z JUL 25) reports Ukraine received a half-billion dollar tranche from the IMF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on legal action against RUF servicemen for war crimes, showing a functioning justice system. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) posts about fundraising for "Rubizh" brigade, indicating active efforts to support frontline units. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (012222Z JUL 25) posts about fuel prices, demonstrating economic management in support of defense. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video showing GUR converting long-range drones into FPV drones, showcasing innovation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (011036Z JUL 25) posts about a meeting with families of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, showing continued support for military families. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (011040Z JUL 25) posts photos and video of rowing competitions at the Institute of Naval Forces in Odesa, indicating continued training and morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Президентська бригада ЗСУ (011050Z JUL 25) video from "Shef" discusses UAF drone advantages, highlighting technical and tactical confidence. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (011053Z JUL 25) reports air raid alert for Kyiv. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011053Z JUL 25) reports ballistic missile threat from Kursk. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (011054Z JUL 25) confirms ballistic missile threat to Kyiv. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (011054Z JUL 25) confirms ballistic missile threat to Kyiv. Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:

  • Donetsk: Repelling 41 assaults near Pokrovsk (last 24 hours). UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties. UAF capture of Russian POWs. UAF strikes on Donetsk and Yasynuvata. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Sumy: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms RUF advance completely stopped. UAF successfully repelled 16/22 RUF assaults. SSO UA_REG_Team cleared a "demilitarized buffer zone" of Russian soldiers. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kharkiv: GUR fighters ambushed and "mowed down" an enemy motor group. Phoenix unit identified and destroyed a RUF BMP and checkpoint. UAF AD shot down a Molniya UAV over Kharkiv. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia: UAF repelling RUF attempts to capture a bridgehead in Kamyanske. Successful tactical assault by 23rd Separate Brigade capturing two opponents in Pryyutne. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Odesa: 14 Shahed UAVs destroyed by UAF AD. SBU detained RUF agents. UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) confirms destruction of a "Geran" UAV. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kyiv: UAF AD effectively repelled massed missile and drone attack, neutralizing 475 out of over 500 targets. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Southern Front: BUKUTUSOV PLUS video claims a highly successful UAF precision strike by MiG-29s with GBU-39 bombs destroying a RUF UAV repair base and drone operators. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAV attack on Volgograd airfield, damaging 5 Su-34 jets. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UN internal analysis confirms Olenivka was a "carefully planned crime" by RUF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Germany's reported support for Ukraine's NATO entry. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Return of three teenagers from occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
  • SBU announced Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list. Confidence: HIGH.
  • US Congress demands return of abducted Ukrainian children. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF UAV activity targeting Rostov Oblast indicates continued deep strike capability. Confidence: MEDIUM (on BDA). STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) shows videos consistent with AD activity over Rostov. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF Naval Forces report (010333Z JUL 25) shows no Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea, indicating successful deterrence or interdiction. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Canada provided $1.7 billion in financial aid from frozen Russian assets (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 010415Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Two Mayors (010458Z JUL 25) report Poland is increasing ammunition production by 5 times, directly supporting UAF's long-term sustainability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) confirms effective drone operations against Russian soldiers. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Confirmed UAF drone attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk, Russia (010609Z JUL 25, 010611Z JUL 25, 010624Z JUL 25, 010644Z JUL 25, 010651Z JUL 25, 010654Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video shows UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs successfully attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. RBC-Ukraine (010647Z JUL 25) corroborates this. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF (010616Z JUL 25) detects and reports high-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF (010629Z JUL 25) reports 47/52 UAVs intercepted overnight. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA (010629Z JUL 25) posts video of successful AD in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (010712Z JUL 25) posts photos of successful UAF strikes on enemy locations, fire positions, and rear areas in the south. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010728Z JUL 25) reports SBU detained another GRU agent who was adjusting attacks on energy facilities in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating successful counter-intelligence operations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010803Z JUL 25) video highlights successful strikes with FPV drones. Confidence: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010819Z JUL 25) posts video confirming UJ-26 "Bober" drone strikes in Crimea against significant RUF military assets. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора (010816Z JUL 25) reports suspicion against a Russian aviation regiment commander, indicating UAF's legal pursuit of war criminals. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (010835Z JUL 25) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010852Z JUL 25) report the explosion of a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, confirming a successful GUR operation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) posts details of the "Vilamoura" tanker explosion, directly linking it to GUR. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010905Z JUL 25) posts a photo mocking RUF's "demilitarization" plan, indicating a successful UAF information counter-offensive. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) from UAF General Staff reports on specific repelled assaults across multiple axes, confirming continued defensive successes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010914Z JUL 25) video shows graphic content of "occupants-bikers" being turned into "mince," indicating a successful UAF kinetic strike with high RUF casualties during an assault. Confidence: HIGH.
  • STERNENKO (010924Z JUL 25) video of multiple UAF drones suggests continued effective ISR and targeting. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zvиздец Мангусту (010928Z JUL 25) video shows soldiers thanking for EW system, highlights public support and combat effectiveness. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010936Z JUL 25) image claims significant RUF materiel losses, reinforcing UAF success. Confidence: HIGH (on UAF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (010940Z JUL 25) video claiming high RUF personnel losses reinforces UAF success. Confidence: HIGH (on UAF claim); MEDIUM (on verifiable BDA).
  • РБК-Україна (010945Z JUL 25) reports IMF tranche received, reinforcing international financial support. Confidence: HIGH.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010953Z JUL 25) video revealing RUF discrimination against L/DPR prisoners is a successful UAF information operation exposing RUF vulnerabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on legal action against RUF servicemen for war crimes, demonstrating continued UAF efforts in accountability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011040Z JUL 25) reporting Norway's investment in Ukrainian defense industry is a significant long-term success. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (011306Z JUL 25) video confirming destruction of railway tracks by resistance movement is a successful UAF operation against RUF logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
  • РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) fundraising for "Rubizh" brigade, while indicating needs, also shows sustained public support. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video showing GUR converting long-range drones to FPV drones is a tactical innovation success. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: STERNENKO (011045Z JUL 25) video shows a successful UAF strike disabling a Russian armored vehicle, confirming continued UAF kinetic effectiveness. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Президентська бригада ЗСУ (011050Z JUL 25) video from "Shef" details UAF advantages in drone warfare, reinforcing confidence in their capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.

• Setbacks:

  • Donetsk (Chasiv Yar): RUF has successfully established a foothold in the Kanal microdistrict, east of the canal. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kharkiv: RUF ground attacks on Vovchansk and Lyptsi continue. Oleg Syniehubov (010517Z JUL 25) confirms 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast subjected to strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Deep Strikes: Continued successful RUF strikes on critical infrastructure in rear areas (Drohobych, Kremenchug, Odesa), military facilities (Konotop, Kryvyi Rih TCC, Korotych airfield, agricultural enterprise in Polohy district), and civilian areas (Pisochyn, Smila, Odesa residential building, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). Loss of two UAF Air Force pilots. Confirmed drone strikes on agricultural enterprises in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25) and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia (010518Z JUL 25). RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (010639Z JUL 25) and confirmed Shahed strikes on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia (010632Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • Territorial Losses (Claimed): RUF claims of taking Novonikolaevka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Udachne. Colonelcassad claims "liberation" of Dachne in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Rybar (010500Z JUL 25) details consistent incremental gains along Mokri Yaly river. TASS (010524Z JUL 25) claims pushing UAF out of positions near Bilohorivka. RUF claims breakthrough to Dnipropetropavsk Oblast via Mokri Yaly (010533Z JUL 25). RUF claims storming positions near Tyotkino, Sumy front (010604Z JUL 25). Colonelcassad (010812Z JUL 25) claims a change of power in Malinivka. Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) reports on claimed territorial gains, which are likely exaggerated but reflect RUF self-perception. Janus Putkonen (011144Z JUL 25) claims Luhansk is completely liberated. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • Casualties: Significant civilian casualties reported across multiple oblasts. Military casualties from persistent combat. KVA (010606Z JUL 25) posts memorial for fallen soldier. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010609Z JUL 25) reporting wounded civilians. TASS (010718Z JUL 25) reports 3 wounded in Donetsk from UAF shelling on June 30. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (010744Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded in Kamianske district, highlighting ongoing civilian impact. ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirms at least 9 injured in Izhevsk. ASTRA (010819Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Kamianske. ТАСС (010820Z JUL 25) confirms killed and severely wounded in Izhevsk. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reports two energy workers with contusions, and some settlements without light and communication after an enemy attack on Stepnohirska community. STERNENKO (010840Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded from Kamianske strike. Военкор Котенок (010842Z JUL 25) claims three killed and about 20 wounded in Izhevsk. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (010853Z JUL 25) states that judging by the deaths, the plant workers were hit, indicating civilian casualties at Izhevsk. TASS (010911Z JUL 25) reports one 18-year-old killed and seven wounded in LNR from a "massive UAV attack" by UAF, reinforcing the human cost of the conflict. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010924Z JUL 25) video shows damaged residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing civilian impact. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010930Z JUL 25) video shows a young Russian soldier, possibly a conscript, giving a "deathbed" address from the front, indicating low morale or high risk conditions for some RUF personnel. Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing damage and casualties, reinforcing civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • EW Impact: Pervasive RUF EW is degrading Ukrainian C2 and ISR capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF drone unit "Bars-31" claims to have destroyed a UAF truck with an anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district, confirmed by UAF sources. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Continued drone threats in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts highlight persistent aerial challenges. Confidence: HIGH.
  • RUF claims destruction of a UAF company in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast (010336Z JUL 25). This requires verification but indicates ongoing heavy fighting and potential for significant losses. Confidence: LOW (on UAF losses); HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • Civilian casualties continue in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010410Z JUL 25). ASTRA (010451Z JUL 25) provides photo confirmation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • A UAF International MaxxPro MRAP was lost to an alleged mine strike and FPV drones in Southern Donetsk direction (Colonelcassad video, 010500Z JUL 25). Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • RUF claims destruction of 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations (TASS, 010415Z JUL 25), if accurate, would represent a significant setback to UAF C2/ISR. Confidence: LOW (on verified BDA).
  • Valeriy Borovyk warns of critical air defense deficit for Kyiv (010552Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010604Z JUL 25) map indicates Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is now perceived as a "warring" area, reflecting increased threat perception. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mash na Donbasse (010639Z JUL 25, 010653Z JUL 25) videos show significant damage to a marketplace in Donetsk due to shelling. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010636Z JUL 25) reports damage to railway and a polyclinic in LNR from UAF drone attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mash na Donbasse (010706Z JUL 25) provides photos of aftermath of UAF drone attack in Luhansk, highlighting damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Операция Z (010732Z JUL 25) posts a video claiming Kyiv will become the "most undefended and dangerous city in Ukraine" due to air defense deficit, which is a RUF propaganda piece designed to highlight a UAF vulnerability. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
  • Народная милиция ДНР (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show a disabled UAF ATV. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); MEDIUM (on verified BDA).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010802Z JUL 25) claims RUF destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verified BDA).
  • Colonelcassad (010802Z JUL 25) posts video from "enemy channels" showing UAF launching glide bombs, indicating UAF expended munitions for unknown BDA. Confidence: HIGH (on video content and UAF strike); MEDIUM (on target and BDA).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ (010803Z JUL 25) reports that a significant threat remains of Russian troops entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting persistent vulnerability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010853Z JUL 25) posts video of civilian evacuation in Bahatyr (Багатир), Donetsk Oblast, showing destroyed buildings, indicating humanitarian impact of conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
  • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010924Z JUL 25) video shows damaged residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Liveuamap Source (010907Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25, 010908Z JUL 25) from UAF General Staff reports on specific clashes, indicating ongoing pressure on UAF defensive lines. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010946Z JUL 25) photos and video show significant damage in LNR from UAF drone attack. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (011007Z JUL 25) reports RUF repelled UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued pressure on UAF defensive positions. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim).
  • Народная милиция ДНР (011001Z JUL 25) video claims destruction of UAF armored vehicles, indicating potential material losses. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and video showing BDA); MEDIUM (on verified destruction of multiple vehicles).
  • Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming an enemy success in inflicting damage. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Воин DV (011045Z JUL 25) video claims destruction of a UAF 2C22 "Bohdana" artillery unit, a significant potential loss for UAF. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim and video evidence); MEDIUM (on independent BDA confirmation).
  • NEW: STERNENKO (011045Z JUL 25) video shows a damaged UAF armored vehicle, confirming a UAF loss. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (011053Z JUL 25) reports air raid alert for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. This represents a current and direct threat to civilian infrastructure and lives in the capital. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011053Z JUL 25) confirms ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast to regions under air raid alert. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: РБК-Україна (011054Z JUL 25) and Оперативний ЗСУ (011054Z JUL 25) confirm the ballistic missile threat and air raid in Kyiv. Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense: Continued high expenditure of AD munitions against sustained RUF missile and drone attacks. Need for additional AD systems, particularly for mobile battlefield protection. German FM visit discussing potential transfer of additional AD is positive. Kyiv's perceived critical AD deficit (010552Z JUL 25) highlights urgent requirement. Ballistic missile threat on Kropyvnytskyi and Huliaipole (010616Z JUL 25, 010617Z JUL 25, 010621Z JUL 25) highlights urgent need for layered AD. Interception of 47/52 UAVs overnight confirms continued high expenditure of AD munitions. Syrskyi's announcement of increased basic training time focused on countering strike UAVs (010720Z JUL 25) and General Staff meeting on countering UAVs (010722Z JUL 25) confirm the critical nature of this requirement. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010730Z JUL 25) issues new ballistic missile threat, underscoring ongoing need for AD. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010759Z JUL 25) reports new threat of aviation-launched weapons in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010835Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target heading towards Zaporizhzhia, highlighting continued AD demand. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010940Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear, indicating AD remains active. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011357Z JUL 25) reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reiterating ongoing demand. Confidence: HIGH.
• Ammunition: Continued need for artillery and other munitions for sustained defensive and counter-offensive operations. Poland's fivefold increase in ammunition production is a significant positive. Confidence: HIGH.
• Drones and EW: Continued demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones, and counter-drone/EW systems. UAF fundraising efforts indicate ongoing need. STERNENKO (010509Z JUL 25) video showing numerous drones and appeal for donations confirms this ongoing requirement. STERNENKO (010701Z JUL 25) photo appealing for donations for "rusoriz" further highlights this need. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (010742Z JUL 25) appeals for support for drone-related activities, reinforcing this need. STERNENKO (010803Z JUL 25) video highlighting the procurement of over 200,000 FPV drones underscores the continued need and successful acquisition. STERNENKO (010924Z JUL 25) video of multiple UAF drones in operation further reinforces the ongoing need and use of UAVs. Zvиздец Мангусту (010928Z JUL 25) video of soldiers with an EW system for an evacuation vehicle, specifically mentioning public donations for its acquisition, highlights the critical and ongoing requirement for EW and counter-drone capabilities, heavily reliant on volunteer support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video showing GUR converting long-range drones into FPV drones, indicating continued demand and adaptation. Confidence: HIGH.
• Logistics Security: Norwegian F-35 deployment to protect the Polish aid hub highlights ongoing vulnerability of logistical supply lines. The explosion of a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean (РБК-Україна, 010835Z JUL 25) highlights the ongoing and expanding efforts to disrupt Russian logistics. This is a positive development for UAF in reducing RUF's ability to sustain operations, but also indicates the ongoing need for UAF to maintain offensive pressure on RUF supply lines. Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) confirms the tanker explosion, underscoring this success. Оперативний ЗСУ (011306Z JUL 25) video confirms partisan operations destroying railway tracks, further highlighting vulnerability of RUF logistics and the need for UAF to exploit these. Confidence: HIGH.
• Personnel: Ongoing need for personnel, managed through mobilization and volunteer incentives. RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reporting on veteran employment quotas, indicating proactive efforts for personnel reintegration. General Staff of UAF (010633Z JUL 25) emphasizing soldier training indicates ongoing efforts to maintain personnel quality. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010704Z JUL 25) highlighting veteran rehabilitation services indicates efforts to maintain force readiness and care for personnel. RBC-Ukraine (010714Z JUL 25) highlights veteran employment initiatives. Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) reports Syrskyi increasing basic general training time for UAV defense, indicating adaptive human resource management. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010801Z JUL 25) highlights child protection, indirectly indicating need to mitigate social impact of war on children. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010908Z JUL 25) posts about the Cabinet of Ministers' proposal to prohibit professional education for conscripts over 25, which, if implemented, could free up personnel for military service or other roles. РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) fundraising appeal for "Rubizh" brigade highlights ongoing equipment and personnel needs. Confidence: HIGH.
• EW Capabilities: Immediate need for mobile friendly EW teams to counter Russian drone reconnaissance and C2 nodes. Confidence: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF Narratives:

  • "Liberation" Narrative: RUF continues to frame territorial gains as "liberation," especially in Donetsk, and claims 100% "liberation" of LNR. Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) posts a summary of claimed territorial gains, reinforcing this narrative. Воин DV (010955Z JUL 25) posts a map of "liberated territory" by "Vostok" group in Southern Donetsk, reinforcing the "liberation" narrative. Janus Putkonen (011144Z JUL 25) claims Luhansk is completely liberated. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Demoralization/Attrition: Propagating narratives of high UAF losses, low morale, and forced mobilization. TASS claim of destroying a UAF company in Yunakivka (010336Z JUL 25) and "Операция Z" video on captured "traitors" (010326Z JUL 25) directly support this narrative. TASS (010446Z JUL 25) reporting on "meat assaults" near Kupyansk further reinforces this. Операция Z (010604Z JUL 25) claims Russian paratroopers "destroyed" UAF infantry near Tyotkino. BUKUTUSOV PLUS (010643Z JUL 25) reporting on Russian actor's death and body abandonment could be used by UAF to highlight RUF's own attrition and lack of care for personnel. TASS (010708Z JUL 25) confirming "Geran-2" strike on UAF temporary deployment point and Воин DV (010710Z JUL 25) video showing strikes on UAF transport/comms aim to highlight UAF losses. Операция Z (010732Z JUL 25) claims Kyiv will become "most undefended," aiming to demoralize. Народная милиция ДНР (010800Z JUL 25) posts video claiming to show a disabled UAF ATV. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010802Z JUL 25) claims a large UAF deployment point was destroyed near Snihurivka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010930Z JUL 25) video of a young Russian soldier's "deathbed" appeal is a clear attempt to demoralize UAF and/or gain sympathy for RUF troops, or highlight their "sacrifice." Narodnaya militsiya DNR (011001Z JUL 25) video of destroyed UAF armored vehicles supports the narrative of UAF losses. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Discrediting Western Aid: Highlighting vulnerabilities of Western military equipment. TASS claim of evacuating an intact Leopard tank from Kursk Oblast (010340Z JUL 25) and the claimed destruction of a MaxxPro MRAP (Colonelcassad, 010500Z JUL 25) supports the narrative of Western equipment being vulnerable or ineffective. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (010635Z JUL 25) and Kotsnews (010652Z JUL 25) videos actively promote the captured Leopard tank as evidence. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010912Z JUL 25) photo of intact Leopard tank reiterates this narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • False Flag/Blame Shifting: Accusing Ukraine of war crimes, actively denying the UN analysis on Olenivka. TASS (010503Z JUL 25) reports Russia will study OPCW report on alleged poisonous substances in Ukraine, showing an intent to counter international accusations or shift blame. FSB claims (010553Z JUL 25) discovery of a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, a likely false flag operation to justify future actions or accusations against UAF. TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims UAF drones attacked a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR. Mash na Donbasse (010639Z JUL 25, 010653Z JUL 25) videos showing damaged civilian infrastructure and attributing it to UAF shelling are part of this narrative. TASS (010635Z JUL 25, 010636Z JUL 25) reports on UAF drone attack causing civilian casualties and damage to polyclinic/railway in LNR aim to portray UAF as targeting civilian areas. Operativny ZSU (010659Z JUL 25) reports Pasechnik framing Luhansk oil depot fire as "debris falling," which is a defensive framing of a UAF strike. Mash na Donbasse (010706Z JUL 25) provides photos claiming to show the aftermath of a "massive UAV attack" by UAF on Luhansk. TASS (010718Z JUL 25) reporting on increased casualties in Donetsk from UAF shelling. ASTRA (010720Z JUL 25) and TASS (010658Z JUL 25) confirming casualties from Izhevsk attack without attributing blame can still be used to portray UAF as harming civilians. ASTRA (010733Z JUL 25) confirming Izhevsk casualties and blaming UAF attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (010806Z JUL 25) video on alleged UAF chemical weapons reinforces the false flag narrative. ТАСС (010831Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered aid to "victims of UAF terrorist attacks," a direct and prominent example of framing UAF actions as terrorism. ТАСС (010841Z JUL 25) posts Moskal’kova calling for condemnation of Kyiv based on UN data of alleged UAF killings and torture, intensifying the IO to discredit UAF. TASS (010911Z JUL 25) reports one 18-year-old killed and seven wounded in LNR from a "massive UAV attack" by UAF, directly blaming UAF for civilian casualties in occupied territory. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010946Z JUL 25) posts photos and video blaming UAF for "massive drone attack" on LPR. Операция Z (011007Z JUL 25) posts a video claiming FSB discovered a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, reinforcing the false flag narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian Resilience/Strength: Promoting domestic stability, showcasing military capabilities (new RUF video of Bars-31 drone unit destroying a UAF truck). Confidence: HIGH. Yaroslav Nilov's proposal for "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" aims to boost morale and national pride. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts focusing on "brotherhood" (010331Z JUL 25) contribute to this. AKORT statement on foreign retailers staying (TASS, 010306Z JUL 25) aims to convey economic stability. TASS (010434Z JUL 25) commentary on S-300 capabilities aims to project confidence in Russian AD. НгП раZVедка (010434Z JUL 25) sharing North Korean concert footage about "warriors who fought in Kursk" indicates efforts to strengthen patriotic narratives and show international support. Архангел Спецназа (010449Z JUL 25) promotes a narrative of "restoration is our victory in peacetime." WarGonzo (010502Z JUL 25) marking "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" reinforces this. Fighterbomber (010549Z JUL 25) echoing "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" further solidifies this message. Colonelcassad (010602Z JUL 25) showing a Ka-52 helicopter highlights military power. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010613Z JUL 25) public event promoting national unity and economic stability with "Together with Russia" messaging. MoD Russia (010630Z JUL 25) video showcasing artillery effectiveness. WarGonzo (010648Z JUL 25) emphasizes veteran day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010702Z JUL 25) further promotes "July 1st - Day of Combat Veterans." Kotsnews (010704Z JUL 25) reporting on State Duma proposing psychologist retraining for SVO fighters can boost morale by showing institutional support for veterans. TASS (010740Z JUL 25) promotes "Mother-Heroine" benefits. Басурин о главном (010751Z JUL 25) claims Russia "smashed Ukrainian defense industry," projecting strength. Воин DV (010800Z JUL 25) photo messages on Veterans Day. MoD Russia (010800Z JUL 25) video showing destruction of enemy UAVs, highlighting Russian AD capabilities. ТАСС (010816Z JUL 25) reports on "Crocus" case to show internal security focus. ТАСС (010833Z JUL 25) reports Putin ordered support for a Russian messenger, which can be framed as promoting technological self-sufficiency. Сливочный каприз (010845Z JUL 25) displaying a graph of claimed territorial gains, aiming to project success and strengthen the narrative of Russian strength. ТАСС (010848Z JUL 25) reports Patriarch Kirill consecrating a memorial to veterans, linking military service with religious and national pride. ТАСС (010902Z JUL 25) reports on Kyrgyz President Zhaparov's visit, highlighting diplomatic ties. ТАСС (010922Z JUL 25) reports on AD successes (Storm Shadow, HIMARS, UAVs shot down), projecting strong defensive capabilities. ТАСС (010925Z JUL 25) provides "Main points from the new briefing of the Ministry of Defense," demonstrating proactive control of information related to military operations. Alex Parker Returns (010934Z JUL 25) claiming increased Geranium production highlights military industrial strength. Z комитет + карта СВО (011000Z JUL 25) promoting "Veterans Day" indicates intent to boost morale and national pride, linking military service to patriotic values. ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) posts a photo of Dmitry Peskov and reports his statements from a briefing, presenting official narrative of strength and control. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (011106Z JUL 25) posts a video of a soldier wishing a happy holiday and success, projecting confidence and strong morale. Старше Эдды (011939Z JUL 25) wishing "Happy Day of Combat Veterans" and stating "On you, brothers, the Russian land stood and will stand" reinforces strong patriotic sentiment and confidence in military. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Anti-Azerbaijan Sentiment: Escalating IO against Azerbaijan. TASS (010625Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijani ambassador arrival at MFA, indicating ongoing tension. TASS (010727Z JUL 25) reports the Azerbaijani ambassador left the Russian MFA, indicating the culmination of this diplomatic event and potential for further IO. Военкор Котенок (010833Z JUL 25) reports on "expected causes of death" for Ziyadin Safarov in Baku, indicating continued focus on the strained relationship. Kotsnews (010847Z JUL 25) posts "В азербайджанских СМИ - своя атмосфера," suggesting continued IO focusing on Azerbaijan's internal or media situation. Операция Z (010923Z JUL 25) and Alex Parker Returns (010924Z JUL 25) report on Azerbaijan opening a criminal case, escalating the diplomatic tension. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010945Z JUL 25) also reports on Azerbaijan opening criminal case against Russian security forces, confirming the widespread nature of this development. ТАСС (011010Z JUL 25) reports Peskov's statement on attempts to cause a split in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, framing external influence. Alex Parker Returns (011003Z JUL 25) posts about Azerbaijan closing Russian schools, fueling anti-Azerbaijani sentiment. Рыбарь (011004Z JUL 25) video on "Azerbaijan continues media attack," reinforcing narrative. WarGonzo (011005Z JUL 25) questions Azerbaijan's motives, directly linking the Safarov case to geopolitical interests and attempting to discredit Azerbaijan's actions. Alex Parker Returns (011305Z JUL 25) post on historical grievances with Azerbaijan, indicating a long-term IO strategy to fuel anti-Azerbaijani sentiment. ТАСС (011602Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan's criminal case, continuing the escalation of diplomatic tension. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Targeting Civilian Objects: RUF claims responsibility for strikes on civilian infrastructure and often portrays them as legitimate military targets or attributes civilian casualties to UAF AD. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian police video on drug crime in Khabarovsk Krai (010433Z JUL 25) reinforces domestic law and order narrative. TASS report on former Central Bank manager's fraud case highlights the ongoing "fight against corruption" narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian state media highlights measures to support key industries (coal miners) to demonstrate economic stability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Announcement of unified Russian language exams for foreigners entering universities aims to promote Russia as an attractive destination for foreign talent or influence. Confidence: HIGH.
  • The "Burger Index" increase could be used by RUF media to highlight internal economic growth or stability, depending on the framing. Confidence: MEDIUM.
  • TASS (010510Z JUL 25) publishing FSB documents on "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" from 1941 seeks to delegitimize the modern Ukrainian state by linking it to historical figures portrayed as enemies of Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • The arrest of a professor in St. Petersburg for a pro-Ukrainian slogan (Север.Реалии, 010557Z JUL 25) sends a strong message of internal suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Военкор Котенок (010605Z JUL 25) commentary on the "Ukrainian war" seeks to frame the conflict as defensive and justified. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010605Z JUL 25) reporting on mobile service disconnection for foreigners not providing biometrics reinforces state control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010606Z JUL 25, 010608Z JUL 25, 010610Z JUL 25) reports on Russian holiday calendars for 2026, aimed at projecting normalcy and stability. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Kotsnews (010630Z JUL 25) discussing Western aid to Ukraine (North Korea vs Iran) as part of strategic analysis. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010712Z JUL 25) and ASTRA (010719Z JUL 25) reports on charging "foreign agent" Ilya Varlamov, portraying those criticizing the state as criminals. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010723Z JUL 25) reports on the dismissal of a Dagestan official due to a criminal case, highlighting continued internal governance issues and potential resource misallocation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • TASS (010734Z JUL 25) reports on political events in Moldova (Gagauzia), indicating RUF attention to regional political dynamics and potential for IO. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010806Z JUL 25) on unsafe headphones, a general consumer safety message. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010809Z JUL 25) on opera singer case, indicating suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010814Z JUL 25) on bribery accusation against rector, showing internal anti-corruption. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010823Z JUL 25) posts a grievance message about housing for Roma, potentially aiming to create social division and discontent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mash na Donbasse (010825Z JUL 25) video showing traffic in Horlivka. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Север.Реалии (010836Z JUL 25) reports on a prosecutor demanding imprisonment for Lydia Prudovskaya, indicating continued suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010845Z JUL 25) reports on tightening foreign agent legislation, further solidifying state control and suppression of dissenting voices. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010850Z JUL 25) posts video with anti-Israel and pro-Palestine commentary, possibly attempting to tap into global anti-Western sentiment and connect it to the conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010911Z JUL 25) on Yandex AI chat, a domestic development but indicative of state control over information tools. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (010911Z JUL 25) posts video about a Florida prison for illegal migrants, which could be framed by RUF as Western internal issues to distract from its own. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010933Z JUL 25) reports on "mass prosecution" of blogger's followers, indicating domestic social control and suppression of perceived misbehavior. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010934Z JUL 25) reports Sergey Zhukov listed in "Mirotvorets" database, indicating RUF attempts to discredit Ukrainian lists. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010932Z JUL 25) reports on increasing fines for drivers not stopping for police, showcasing domestic law enforcement and control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Новости Москвы (010943Z JUL 25) on proposed museum, indicative of domestic cultural projects to project normalcy. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Басурин о главном (010948Z JUL 25) on "educating children" shows long-term cultural/political influence strategy in occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Север.Реалии (010951Z JUL 25) reports conviction of a naval academy graduate on five charges, used by RUF to show domestic law and order and anti-corruption efforts. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (010952Z JUL 25) on another arrest of blogger's follower, reinforcing domestic social control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ТАСС (011001Z JUL 25) reports the Ministry of Industry and Trade intends to oblige foreign manufacturers to use Russian components when localizing cars in Russia. This indicates a domestic policy aimed at increasing self-sufficiency and control over the automotive industry, not directly military but reflects economic strategy. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Alex Parker Returns (011305Z JUL 25) posts about Russia's territorial concessions to Azerbaijan in 2011, which serves to portray Russia as a victim or justify current hardline stances. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Два майора (011433Z JUL 25) posts a comment "Surely it's because of the name 'Hands Up'," which is a sarcastic remark related to an unspecified event, indicating RUF channels' use of humor/sarcasm to shape sentiment. Confidence: HIGH.
  • ASTRA (011915Z JUL 25) posts multiple images of branded merchandise with stylized "ASTRA" logos. This is internal branding and promotional content, not directly military intelligence. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Новости Москвы (011030Z JUL 25) posts a photo of an elevated park structure, which has no military significance and may be part of standard civilian content or a subtle attempt to showcase urban development in Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns (011032Z JUL 25) photo messages show a Russian "traffic police" graphic, indicating a focus on domestic law enforcement and social order. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011032Z JUL 25) reports a camp counselor in Krasnoyarsk Krai was fired after three teenagers sexually assaulted a ten-year-old boy. This is a domestic news item highlighting crime and law enforcement, not directly military. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad (011032Z JUL 25) reports Peskov commented on a national messenger theme, indicating continued state focus on digital sovereignty and information control. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Kotsnews (011034Z JUL 25) reports Baku accusing Russian security forces of killing two Azerbaijanis. This escalates the information war between RUF and Azerbaijan. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Операция Z (011034Z JUL 25) reports Azerbaijan continues to "take Russian journalists hostage" by detaining 7 more at Sputnik office. This is a strong RUF counter-narrative to Azerbaijan's accusations. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: НгП раZVедка (011034Z JUL 25) posts a "congratulatory helicopter" message, likely a morale booster or internal joke. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: ТАСС (011041Z JUL 25) reports the new Afghan Ambassador to Russia arriving in Moscow today, indicating continued diplomatic engagement. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011043Z JUL 25) video claims the Izhevsk attack was a "demonstration of capabilities" by Ukraine to Western sponsors, especially Germany, linking it to recent German MFA visits and "Lyutyi" drone production. This is a significant RUF information operation to discredit Western aid and justify their own actions. Confidence: HIGH.

• Ukrainian Narratives:

  • Heroism and Resilience: Highlighting individual acts of bravery, units' combat successes, and civilian resilience. Reporting of 970 Russian personnel "demilitarized" (010357Z JUL 25 sources) reinforces UAF effectiveness. Oleksandr Vilkul (010432Z JUL 25) reporting "situation controlled" in Kryvyi Rih aims to reassure the public. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (010503Z JUL 25) video on "Night training with Ukrainian know-how" emphasizes adaptation and skill. UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) showing dead Russian soldier in "anti-drone pose" can be used to promote UAF battlefield effectiveness. Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010559Z JUL 25) promote a minute of silence for fallen soldiers, reinforcing national unity. RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) highlights veteran support initiatives. КМВА (010606Z JUL 25) memorial graphic for fallen soldier. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010557Z JUL 25) "Good morning" message indicates positive morale. General Staff of UAF (010633Z JUL 25) emphasizing soldier training to enhance effectiveness and save lives, reinforcing a professional approach. Silly Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (010701Z JUL 25) providing operational information for the south, and (010712Z JUL 25) posts showing UAF strikes on enemy positions, promote active defense and success. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010704Z JUL 25) showcasing veteran rehabilitation efforts promotes care for soldiers. STERNENKO (010701Z JUL 25) appealing for donations for "rusoriz" reflects active public engagement and offensive spirit. RBC-Ukraine (010714Z JUL 25) on veteran employment highlights government support. Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) and General Staff (010722Z JUL 25) discussions on countering UAVs emphasize adaptation and proactive measures. РБК-Україна (010738Z JUL 25) reporting Syrskyi's statement on increased training highlights adaptation and resilience. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010801Z JUL 25) posts about child protection. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (010817Z JUL 25) posts about meeting with families of defenders from various brigades. Олександр Вілкул (010804Z JUL 25) posts photos of children at a summer camp, showing efforts to maintain normalcy. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (010842Z JUL 25) posts photo messages about new school buses, indicating efforts to maintain education and civilian services in Kharkiv Oblast. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (010847Z JUL 25) promoting a project for "People of the Future" at a "Camp at the Stable," likely a humanitarian or rehabilitation initiative, which promotes positive narratives of care and future. Оперативний ЗСУ (010924Z JUL 25) video showing Zaporizhzhia recovery efforts highlights resilience. Zvиздец Мангусту (010928Z JUL 25) video showing soldiers thanking for EW system, highlights public support and combat effectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ (010936Z JUL 25) image on RUF losses, promoting UAF success. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (010940Z JUL 25) video on RUF losses, promoting UAF success. РБК-Україна (010945Z JUL 25) on IMF tranche received, highlighting international support and financial stability. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010953Z JUL 25) video highlighting RUF discrimination of L/DPR prisoners, which can boost UAF morale by highlighting enemy weakness. Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on legal action against RUF servicemen for war crimes, demonstrating a commitment to justice. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (011040Z JUL 25) reports Norway will invest in Ukrainian defense industry, signifying international support for UAF's long-term capabilities. РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) fundraising for "Rubizh" brigade, while indicating needs, also highlights resilience and public support. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (012222Z JUL 25) posts about fuel prices, indirectly supporting defense forces and promoting national efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (012456Z JUL 25) video showing GUR converting long-range drones to FPV drones, highlighting innovation and adaptation. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian War Crimes: Reporting on alleged war crimes by RUF soldiers and showing damaged civilian infrastructure. News of Ukrainian woman and child killed in Germany (RBC-Ukraine, 010358Z JUL 25), while not directly combat-related, could be used to highlight the continued dangers faced by Ukrainians due to the conflict and displacement. BUKUTUSOV PLUS (010643Z JUL 25) reporting on Russian actor's death and body abandonment. Operativny ZSU (010659Z JUL 25) reporting Pasechnik's defensive framing of Luhansk oil depot fire as "UAV debris falling" rather than a direct hit by UAF can be used to expose Russian attempts at obfuscation. TASS (010736Z JUL 25) reports on an attack on energy company employees in Germany, which is not attributed to RUF, but highlights broader security concerns which could be framed. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010816Z JUL 25) reports suspicion against a Russian aviation regiment commander. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010853Z JUL 25) posts video of civilian evacuation in Bahatyr (Багатир), Donetsk Oblast, showing destroyed buildings and ID checks, clearly demonstrating the human cost of the conflict. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010924Z JUL 25) video shows damage to residential buildings from a "treacherous night attack," highlighting civilian targeting. Офіс Генерального прокурора (011000Z JUL 25) reports on legal action against 9 RUF servicemen suspected of brutal treatment of civilians in Kyiv Oblast, directly framing RUF actions as war crimes. Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming an attack on a populated area. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Russian Attrition: Emphasizing high RUF casualties and equipment losses (e.g., damaged Su-34s at Volgograd airfield). UAF drone attack on Izhevsk military enterprise and Crimea military targets (010609Z JUL 25, 010619Z JUL 25, 010644Z JUL 25, 010647Z JUL 25, 010651Z JUL 25, 010654Z JUL 25) highlights RUF losses. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010658Z JUL 25, 010705Z JUL 25) and STERNENKO (010701Z JUL 25, 010723Z JUL 25) videos from Izhevsk aim to highlight the successful strike on a military target in Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010819Z JUL 25) posts video of drone strikes on Pantsir, radars, and Su-30. Оперативний ЗСУ (010824Z JUL 25) posts satellite imagery of the damaged Rostov oil depot. РБК-Україна (010835Z JUL 25) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010852Z JUL 25) report the explosion of a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, highlighting successful operations against RUF assets. Оперативний ЗСУ (010901Z JUL 25) reinforces the GUR link to the tanker explosion. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (010914Z JUL 25) video showing graphic RUF casualties reinforces the narrative of successful UAF strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ (010936Z JUL 25) image of burning tank claims massive RUF losses in materiel and personnel. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (010940Z JUL 25) video detailing RUF personnel losses for June. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Exposing Russian Weaknesses: Highlighting RUF personnel issues, internal corruption, and perceived foreign policy missteps. Operatsiya Z's appeal for thermal imagers (010421Z JUL 25) could be exploited to highlight RUF equipment deficiencies. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) appeal for donations for drones and supplies highlights continued RUF reliance on public. Два майора (010700Z JUL 25) video with soldiers appealing for material assistance on the Zaporizhzhia Front further exposes RUF logistical challenges. Север.Реалии (010804Z JUL 25) video showing aftermath of Luhansk oil depot fire. Оперативний ЗСУ (010803Z JUL 25) reports on the threat of Russian troops in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010930Z JUL 25) video of a young soldier's grim message can be exploited to show low morale and the human cost for RUF. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (010953Z JUL 25) video revealing RUF discrimination of L/DPR prisoners, which can be used to sow discord and expose internal RUF flaws. Confidence: HIGH.
  • International Support: Showcasing diplomatic visits and military aid commitments. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Government Functionality: Demonstrating continued operation of state services and judicial processes. Confidence: HIGH.
  • The return of three teenagers from occupied territories is a strong positive narrative for UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
  • SBU's announcement of Nikita Mikhalkov on the wanted list might be viewed positively as an assertion of sovereignty and justice. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Public display of communal services clearing debris in Zaporizhzhia reinforces a sense of order and government response to attacks, which supports morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF real-time alerts emphasize persistent RUF threats, bolstering vigilance and confirming RUF aggression. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010612Z JUL 25) issues new alert. UAF AF (010612Z JUL 25) warns of ballistic threat. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010729Z JUL 25) posts a new air alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reinforcing public awareness. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010759Z JUL 25) reports new air threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010835Z JUL 25) reports a new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010835Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target heading towards Zaporizhzhia. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010940Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear, which can reassure the public. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011357Z JUL 25) reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, maintaining public vigilance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010440Z JUL 25) transparently reporting traffic disruptions due to attacks supports public Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Morale:

  • Resilience: Continued operation of civilian services and community events indicate civilian resilience. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (010842Z JUL 25) posts about new school buses delivered, indicating efforts to maintain normalcy. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010924Z JUL 25) video showing residents clearing debris and repairing homes highlights civilian resilience. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Impact of Casualties: Civilian casualties from missile/drone strikes cause grief and anger, fueling resolve but also increasing stress. Loss of pilots highlights the personal cost. The news of the Ukrainian woman and child murdered in Germany (RBC-Ukraine, 010358Z JUL 25), while not directly combat-related, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Ukrainians abroad and could evoke strong emotional responses and impact morale. KVA (010606Z JUL 25) memorial graphic for a fallen soldier. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010609Z JUL 25) reporting wounded civilians. TASS (010718Z JUL 25) reports 3 wounded in Donetsk from UAF shelling on June 30. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (010744Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded in Kamianske district, highlighting ongoing civilian impact. ASTRA (010819Z JUL 25) confirms killed and wounded in Kamianske. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010833Z JUL 25) reports two energy workers with contusions, and settlements without power, showing the direct impact on civilians. STERNENKO (010840Z JUL 25) reports killed and wounded from Kamianske strike. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010853Z JUL 25) posts video of civilian evacuation in Bahatyr (Багатир), Donetsk Oblast, showing destroyed buildings and ID checks, indicating the harsh realities faced by civilians. TASS (010911Z JUL 25) reports one 18-year-old killed and seven wounded in LNR from a "massive UAV attack" by UAF, reinforcing the human cost of the conflict. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010924Z JUL 25) video of damaged residential buildings reinforces civilian impact. Сили оборони Півдня України (012512Z JUL 25) reports a missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing damage and casualties, reinforcing civilian impact. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Mobilization: Internal policy changes on mobilization deferment indicate an awareness of public sentiment. RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reporting on veteran employment quotas as government support. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010704Z JUL 25) showcasing veteran rehabilitation efforts can boost morale among service members and their families. RBC-Ukraine (010714Z JUL 25) on veteran employment, indicating government efforts to support veterans. Operativny ZSU (010720Z JUL 25) reports Syrskyi's training adaptation to UAVs, indicating responsiveness to battlefield realities, which can boost confidence. РБК-Україна (010738Z JUL 25) reporting Syrskyi's statement on increased training for UAV defense. Офіс Генерального прокурора (010801Z JUL 25) posts about child protection. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (010817Z JUL 25) posts about meeting with families of POWs. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (010847Z JUL 25) promoting a humanitarian project "People of the Future" at a "Camp at the Stable," which can foster a sense of hope and community support. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (010908Z JUL 25) posts about the Cabinet of Ministers' proposal on professional education for conscripts, indicating proactive management of mobilization-related social issues. РБК-Україна (012422Z JUL 25) fundraising for "Rubizh" brigade highlights public support for military personnel. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Trust in Government: SBU's successful counter-intelligence operations and UN analysis on Olenivka likely bolster public trust. Confidence: HIGH.
  • The return of three teenagers from occupied territories will likely boost national morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • SBU placing Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list might be viewed positively as an assertion of sovereignty and justice. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Public display of communal services clearing debris in Zaporizhzhia reinforces a sense of order and government response to attacks, which supports morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • UAF AF alerts contribute to public awareness of ongoing threats and potentially reinforce collective resolve. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010612Z JUL 25) issues new alert. UAF AF (010612Z JUL 25) warns of ballistic threat. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010729Z JUL 25) posts a new air alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reinforcing public awareness. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010759Z JUL 25) reports new air threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010835Z JUL 25) reports a new alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (010835Z JUL 25) reports a high-speed target heading towards Zaporizhzhia. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (010940Z JUL 25) reports air raid all-clear, which can reassure the public. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (011357Z JUL 25) reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, maintaining public vigilance. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010440Z JUL 25) transparently reporting traffic disruptions due to attacks supports public Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (011036Z JUL 25) posts about a meeting with families of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, which likely boosts morale by showing government and military support for service members and their families. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (011040Z JUL 25) posts photos and video of rowing competitions at the Institute of Naval Forces in Odesa. This promotes a positive image of military life and physical readiness, boosting morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Президентська бригада ЗСУ (011050Z JUL 25) video from "Shef" discussing UAF drone advantages, which promotes confidence in military capabilities and thus boosts public morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (011051Z JUL 25) and Оперативний ЗСУ (011052Z JUL 25) posts of the "successfully demobilized" meme are intended to boost UAF morale by mocking RUF losses. Confidence: HIGH.

• Russian Morale:

  • Patriotism/Nationalism: Continued emphasis on "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" and historical narratives aims to reinforce patriotism and national pride. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Economic Strain: Reports of increasing utility tariffs and self-bans on credits could indicate growing public discontent or economic hardship, potentially impacting morale. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Internal Control: Strict control over information, arrests of "foreign agents," and suppression of dissent suggests a coercive approach to maintaining public order, which may prevent overt dissent but also reflects underlying public sentiment. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Casualties: While often downplayed, growing casualty figures and the impact of cross-border attacks (e.g., Izhevsk, Volgograd) could impact public sentiment and morale, especially with increased civilian casualties from UAF strikes. UPDATED: ASTRA (010720Z JUL 25) and TASS (010658Z JUL 25) confirming casualties from Izhevsk attack. UPDATED: A