INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)
TIME: 010625Z JUL 25 (Updated from 010600Z JUL 25)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
- Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest potential heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russia: Новости Москвы reports a North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" has arrived in Moscow, bringing 3 days of rain and colder temperatures. Confidence: HIGH.
1.1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
- RUF Dispositions:
- Donetsk: High-intensity offensive continues on Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Confirmed presence of units from the "Center" and "Vostok" groups, 30th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, and VDV (98th Guards Airborne Division confirmed in Chasiv Yar, 247th Air Assault Regiment). Confidence: HIGH.
- Zaporizhzhia: Kadyrovite (Chechen special forces) transfer to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area with 15 military trucks indicates a significant buildup for potential assault operations. Confidence: HIGH.
- Sumy: Claims of 50,000 RUF personnel concentrated in the area, outnumbering UAF by approximately 3:1. Confidence: LOW.
- ASTRA reports five Su-34 fighter jets were damaged in a UAV attack on a military airfield in Volgograd Oblast on June 27. Confidence: HIGH.
- TASS video shows operators of RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroying a truck with a UAF anti-aircraft gun. This appears to be a UAF military vehicle. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Fighterbomber (RUF channel) posts a video (010421Z JUL 25) showing personnel loading what appear to be cruise missiles on wheeled carts at an airfield. This indicates ongoing air force logistical activity and readiness for strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Colonelcassad (010602Z JUL 25) video shows a Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter in flight, suggesting active combat aviation support for ground operations. Confidence: HIGH.
- RUF Equipment/Tactics:
- UAVs: Continued extensive use of FPV drones, reconnaissance UAVs, and Shahed-type strike UAVs ("Geranium-2") for deep strikes. Reports of a new "Chernika" drone in Kharkiv. Deployment of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV with a dual machine gun mount on the Pokrovsk direction. New drone footage showing RUF capabilities against UAF logistics and C2. Confidence: HIGH.
- Precision Fires: Continued use of FABs with UMPK glide kits (Chasiv Yar), Lancet loitering munitions, and TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems. Confidence: HIGH.
- Mine Warfare: Confirmed use of minefields by RUF. Confidence: HIGH.
- Foreign Fighters: Confirmed use of Latin American (Argentina, Brazil, Cuba) and Cameroonian mercenaries as assault troops. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Logistics/Funding: Continued reliance on public fundraising for critical equipment. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Операция Z (RUF channel) posts video (010421Z JUL 25) of Russian "военкоры" (war correspondents) appealing for donations for thermal imagers, highlighting continued reliance on public fundraising for essential battlefield equipment. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Colonelcassad (010504Z JUL 25) posts a video showing a "frontline laboratory" where Rosgvardia specialists are studying enemy drones and improving electronic warfare (EW) systems, indicating active counter-UAV and EW development. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) posts a video of Russian reconnaissance unit appealing for donations for Mavic 3T/Pro drones and food/communciation equipment for forward positions. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: ASTRA reports (010539Z JUL 25) that utility tariffs are increasing in Russia by up to 40% in some cities, potentially impacting domestic stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- RUF Control Measures / IO:
- Active recruitment campaigns for specialized units.
- Continued IO exploiting UAF casualties and internal issues, discrediting Western aid.
- Increased diplomatic tension with Azerbaijan (alleged FSB detentions, Russian MFA protests). Confidence: HIGH.
- Putin discussed the integration of Donbas and Novorossiya by 2030, reinforcing long-term intent for political and economic integration of occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
- Yaroslav Nilov proposed celebrating July 1st as "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" in Russian regions, aiming to boost morale and national pride for military personnel. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Russian Central Bank has signaled to banks the possibility of debt restructuring for coal miners, indicating efforts to support critical domestic industries and prevent economic instability. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Russian Ministry of Education announced the unification of Russian language exams for foreigners entering universities in 2026, which could facilitate foreign national integration. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: "Операция Z" posts a video (010326Z JUL 25) on captured individuals accused of treason and espionage for Ukraine, showing arrests, interrogations, and court proceedings with harsh sentences. This is a clear propaganda piece aimed at deterring defection/collaboration and reinforcing state control. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message (010331Z JUL 25) with the caption "Десантное братство, семья," implying a focus on unit cohesion and morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: TASS reports (010306Z JUL 25) that AKORT (Association of Retail Companies) does not observe foreign retailers wishing to leave Russia. This is a message of economic stability and resilience. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: TASS reports (010422Z JUL 25) a queue of 757 vehicles at the Crimean bridge from the Taman side, indicating ongoing civilian traffic and potentially logistical movement. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Новости Москвы (010430Z JUL 25) posts a photo message with the caption "Матерей-героинь уравняют в льготах с Героями России," indicating efforts to promote state support for families. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Басурин о главном (010442Z JUL 25) posts a photo message with #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ, indicating a focus on historical narratives and potentially patriotic education. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Архангел Спецназа (010449Z JUL 25) posts a message "Восстановление — это наша победа в мирное время," emphasizing reconstruction and normalisation in occupied areas. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ (010501Z JUL 25) posts a "Good morning" photo message, indicating routine social media activity from pro-Russian channels. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: WarGonzo (010502Z JUL 25) marks July 1st as "Day of Memory and Respect – Day of Veterans of Combat Operations," indicating RUF's ongoing efforts to honor military personnel and boost morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010503Z JUL 25) reports that Russian experts will study the OPCW report of June 26 on the alleged detection of poisonous substances in Ukraine, indicating Russia's response to international accusations and its efforts to control the information narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010510Z JUL 25) publishes FSB documents about "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" on the Leningrad Front in 1941, indicating a propaganda effort to link contemporary Ukrainian resistance to historical collaboration narratives, intended to discredit Ukraine and mobilize public opinion. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010518Z JUL 25) reports that AKORT (Association of Retail Companies) continues to not support the start of online alcohol sales in Russia due to risks, a domestic economic-social policy item. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Fighterbomber (010549Z JUL 25) posts that July 1st is unofficially "Day of Veterans of Combat Operations" in Russia, further reinforcing this morale-boosting narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: FSB claims (010553Z JUL 25) discovery of a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, which is a significant information operation element, potentially a false flag. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
- NEW: TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims UAF drones attacked a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR, likely a propaganda effort to portray UAF as targeting civilians. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
- NEW: Военкор Котенок (010605Z JUL 25) provides commentary defining the "Ukrainian war" as Russia's "very delayed and even timid" response to a war unleashed against the Russian people in Ukraine, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative of justification. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010605Z JUL 25) reports disconnection of mobile services for foreigners not providing biometrics, indicating tightening state control over foreign nationals. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010606Z JUL 25, 010608Z JUL 25, 010610Z JUL 25) reports on Russian holiday calendar for 2026, aimed at domestic stability and morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010613Z JUL 25) video shows a public event with "Together with Russia" and "Bank of Russia" logos, promoting national unity and economic stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010613Z JUL 25) video shows FSB footage of alleged UAF chemical weapons cache. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on veracity).
1.2. Key Terrain Adjustments (Summary of Confirmed and Claimed Changes)
- Confirmed RUF Territorial Gains/Presence:
- Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka) (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims "liberation" confirmed by RUF MoD video. Confidence: HIGH.
- Portion of Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): RUF controls part of the ruins, UAF holds the city. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kanal Microdistrict, Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): RUF has established a confirmed foothold east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. Confidence: HIGH.
- Contested/Claimed RUF Penetration:
- Novonikolaevka (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims "liberation" and visual corroboration. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Shevchenko (Donetsk Oblast): RUF claims "liberation" and visual corroboration. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF claims penetration to the center and flag raising. UAF sources indicate heavy ongoing battles. Confidence: LOW (on verified RUF control); HIGH (on RUF claim of penetration and ongoing heavy combat).
- Dachne (Dnipro Oblast): Colonelcassad claims "liberation" by 114th Brigade, raising flags. Confidence: LOW (on verified control); HIGH (on RUF claim with supporting visual evidence).
- NEW: Rybar (010500Z JUL 25) details Russian advances on June 10th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 25th, 27th, and 28th, 2025, in areas like Urozhayne, Novopavlovka, Novopokrovka, Novoselivka, and west of Vremivka, specifically along the Mokri Yaly river in Southern Donetsk, indicating consistent, incremental RUF gains in this direction. Confidence: HIGH (on claimed advances); MEDIUM (on independent verification of full control).
- NEW: TASS (010524Z JUL 25) reports RUF claims of pushing UAF out of most positions on the heights near Bilohorivka, LNR. Confidence: LOW (on verified UAF losses/RUF control); HIGH (on RUF claim).
- NEW: RUF channel "Операция Z" (010533Z JUL 25) claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast." This is a significant, unverified claim of a deep penetration. Confidence: LOW (on verified control/penetration); HIGH (on RUF claim).
- NEW: Операция Z (010604Z JUL 25) claims Russian paratroopers stormed positions near Tyotkino, Sumy front. Confidence: LOW (on UAF losses); HIGH (on RUF claim).
- Confirmed RUF Strikes on Specific Infrastructure/Facilities:
- Drohobych refinery (Lviv Oblast): Confirmed successful missile strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kremenchug oil refinery (Poltava Oblast): Confirmed successful strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Vovchansk "butter extraction plant" (Kharkiv Oblast): Confirmed TOS-1A strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Odesa Coastal Logistics/Naval Fuel Terminal / Oil Refinery (Burlachya Balka): Confirmed "powerful strike" and fires, likely by Shaheds. Confidence: HIGH.
- Konotop UAV depot/UAF deployment (Sumy Oblast): Confirmed Geran-2 strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kryvyi Rih TCC (Military Enlistment Office) (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast): Confirmed Shahed strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, logistics routes (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast): RUF claims widespread strikes. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Korotych airfield (Kharkiv Oblast): RUF claims successful strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Military airfield in Volgograd Oblast (Russia): ASTRA reports 5 Su-34 fighter jets damaged by UAF UAV attack. Confidence: HIGH.
- Agricultural enterprise in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attacked. Confidence: HIGH.
- Donetsk and Yasynuvata (Donetsk Oblast): UAF confirmed strikes, causing fires and civilian casualties. Confidence: HIGH.
- Luhansk (LNR): UAF drone attack confirmed, fires and RUF AD active. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) shows video of large fire. Confidence: HIGH.
- Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF attack caused a fire to a civilian vehicle. Casualties being clarified. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF has launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district, confirmed by Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia OVA, and "Оперативний ЗСУ" with video evidence. Photos from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration show communal services clearing debris. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Colonelcassad video (010500Z JUL 25) shows a UAF International MaxxPro MRAP destroyed in Southern Donetsk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF claims disruption of UAF rotation near Nadiya, Luhansk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: TASS reports (010415Z JUL 25) Group 'Zapad' claimed destruction of 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations. Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim); LOW (on verified BDA).
- UPDATED: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010518Z JUL 25) reports that a industrial enterprise was hit by 4 Shahed drones and a residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district was hit by one Shahed drone. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) confirms destruction of a "Geran" UAV over Odesa. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Izhevsk (Udmurtia, Russia): ASTRA (010606Z JUL 25), Operatyvny ZSU (010609Z JUL 25), ASTRA (010609Z JUL 25), Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010610Z JUL 25), TASS (010611Z JUL 25) confirm a drone attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol" (STERNENKO, 010624Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video shows UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
- New Area of Civilian Impact (RUF):
- Pisochyn (Kharkiv Oblast): Confirmed drone attack with 8 casualties (including 1 child). Confidence: HIGH.
- Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF attack caused a fire to a civilian vehicle. Casualties being clarified. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF has launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Polohy district (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): 56-year-old man wounded in enemy attack (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, 010410Z JUL 25; ASTRA, 010451Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010518Z JUL 25) reports a residential building in Shevchenkivskyi district was hit by a Shahed drone. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010609Z JUL 25) reports two people wounded in Polohy district. Confidence: HIGH.
- New Area of Civilian Impact (UAF Cross-border):
- Donetsk (DNR): Civilian casualties and fires reported after UAF missile strike. Confidence: HIGH.
- Luhansk (LNR): UAF drone attack confirmed, fires and RUF AD active. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Saratov and Engels (Russia): Residents reported explosions and sirens. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts video from Saratov, but it is low quality and does not show military activity, corroborating civilian reports. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Rostov Oblast (Russia): RUF AD destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts. STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) posts videos from Rostov, confirming distant flashes and sounds consistent with AD. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Kazan (Russia): Temporary flight restrictions at Kazan airport may indicate drone activity. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan, Russia): Airport suspended operations, likely due to drone threat. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight (ASTRA, 010439Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH (on RUF claim of AD activity); LOW (on verified UAF losses).
- NEW: TASS reports (010510Z JUL 25) Saratov airport has lifted flight restrictions, indicating temporary nature of previous alert. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: ASTRA reports (010533Z JUL 25) temporary flight restrictions at Izhevsk airport for security reasons. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Izhevsk (Udmurtia, Russia): ASTRA (010606Z JUL 25), Operatyvny ZSU (010609Z JUL 25), ASTRA (010609Z JUL 25), Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlits" (010610Z JUL 25), TASS (010611Z JUL 25) confirm a drone attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk, specifically the electro-mechanical plant "Kupol" (STERNENKO, 010624Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- UAF Tactical Advances/Counter-Offensive:
- Oleksiyivka (Sumy Oblast): UAF claims advance, pushing RUF back from Sumy. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Pryyutne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): UAF video shows successful tactical assault and capture of personnel. Confidence: HIGH.
- Buffer Zone Demilitarization (Sumy): UAF drone footage shows deceased RUF soldiers, indicating successful UAF clearing operations. Confidence: HIGH.
- DeepState video presents drone footage of "Darts" UAV units working on enemy logistics and counter-battery actions in Belgorod Oblast (BNR). Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) shows dead Russian soldier in "anti-drone pose", indicating successful UAF drone operations. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video shows UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
1.3. New UAF Achievements (Non-Combat):
- German FM Visit: Newly appointed German FM Johann Wadephul visited Ukraine, discussing transfer of additional air defense systems and potential military-industrial production in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
- Polish Ammunition Production: Poland increasing ammunition production fivefold due to RUF threat. Confidence: HIGH.
- Norwegian F-35 Protection: Norwegian F-35s to protect main military aid hub in Poland. Confidence: HIGH.
- UAF Counter-Intelligence: SBU successfully detained a RUF agent couple who helped shell Odesa. Confidence: HIGH.
- Ukrainian Air Force Precision Strike: BUKUTUSOV PLUS video claims a highly successful UAF precision strike by MiG-29s with GBU-39 bombs destroying a RUF UAV repair base and drone operators on the southern front. Confidence: HIGH.
- UN Analysis on Olenivka: Internal UN analysis concluding the Olenivka killing was a "carefully planned crime" by the Russian Federation. Confidence: HIGH.
- Germany's NATO Stance: Germany now supports Ukraine's entry into NATO, citing Zelenskyy. Confidence: HIGH.
- IMF Financial Support: Ukraine will receive half a billion dollars from the IMF. Confidence: HIGH.
- RBC-Ukraine reports the return of three teenagers from occupied territories to Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: SBU announced Nikita Mikhalkov, a prominent Russian film director and public figure, has been placed on a wanted list in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: US Congress is demanding Russia return abducted Ukrainian children. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine (010345Z JUL 25) confirms the return of 3 teenagers from Russian-occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine (010339Z JUL 25) reports Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, stated Russia must move to trilateral negotiations to end the war and stop stalling. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Canada has provided $1.7 billion to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets, indicating continued financial support from allies. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports (010357Z JUL 25) that Ukrainian forces have "demilitarized" 970 Russian personnel in the past day. UAF General Staff (010357Z JUL 25) and Operatyvny ZSU (010357Z JUL 25) corroborate this, and RBC-Ukraine (010400Z JUL 25) repeats the claim. Confidence: MEDIUM (on exact numbers); HIGH (on reported daily enemy losses by UAF).
- UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine (010441Z JUL 25) reports the US will transfer a large batch of JDAM systems to Israel, indicating continued US military aid transfers to allies. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Two Mayors (010458Z JUL 25) confirm Poland is increasing ammunition production by 5 times, directly supporting UAF logistical needs. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (010503Z JUL 25) posts a video of "Night training with Ukrainian know-how," indicating continuous training and innovation within UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: STERNENKO (010509Z JUL 25) posts a video of Ukrainian soldiers with numerous drones and an ATV, with a message appealing for donations, highlighting continued public support and volunteer efforts for UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010530Z JUL 25) publishes analysis on increasing global water conflicts, linking it to global security and Ukraine, indicating proactive geopolitical awareness. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010547Z JUL 25) reports on record Euro exchange rate against Hryvnia, indicating economic reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: General Staff of UAF (010558Z JUL 25) posts photo messages. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) posts a photo message about Ukraine honoring fallen soldiers with a minute of silence. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reports that the Verkhovna Rada is developing legislation to introduce mandatory quotas (5-10%) for enterprises to employ veterans, indicating government efforts to support veterans. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010606Z JUL 25) reports US Congress published a bipartisan resolution demanding Russia return abducted Ukrainian children. Confidence: HIGH.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
- Capabilities:
- Ground Offensive: RUF maintains significant offensive capability, particularly concentrated in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar) with confirmed ground advances into the Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. Deployment of Kadyrovites to Zaporizhzhia indicates preparation for a potential new major offensive. Use of motorcyclist attacks and UGVs signals tactical adaptations. Claimed "liberation" of Dachne in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast indicates expanded ground offensive reach. Rybar's report (010500Z JUL 25) confirms consistent incremental gains along the Mokri Yaly river. NEW: RUF claim of forcing the Mokri Yaly river and breaking through towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (010533Z JUL 25), if verified, demonstrates significant penetration capability. NEW: RUF claims near Tyotkino, Sumy front (010604Z JUL 25), indicate continued ground assault capability in border areas. Confidence: HIGH.
- Deep Strike: RUF demonstrates sustained capacity for massed missile and Shahed UAV attacks across Ukraine's depth, targeting critical infrastructure, military facilities, and civilian areas. Confirmed successful strike on a bridge over the Vovcha River near the Dnipropetropavsk Oblast border. The UAV attack on the Volgograd airfield, though by UAF, highlights the vulnerability of air assets to drone strikes, something RUF is also capable of. NEW: Confirmed drone attack on a military enterprise in Izhevsk (010609Z JUL 25, 010611Z JUL 25, 010624Z JUL 25) demonstrates UAF deep strike capability against Russian military industrial complex. Confidence: HIGH.
- Unmanned Systems: Extensive and evolving use of FPV, reconnaissance, and strike UAVs for ISR, targeting, and kinetic strikes. Continued development and deployment of new drone types. Reports of active RUF efforts to counter Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. UPDATED: Colonelcassad video (010333Z JUL 25) highlights RUF's sophisticated drone reconnaissance capabilities, including identification of UAF C2, logistics, and potential minefields. UPDATED: Colonelcassad (010504Z JUL 25) video showing a "frontline laboratory" for studying enemy drones and improving EW further confirms RUF's commitment to counter-UAV and EW capabilities. UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) appealing for drones highlights ongoing RUF reliance on and demand for UAVs. Confidence: HIGH.
- Precision Fires: Continued effective use of FABs (Chasiv Yar), Lancet loitering munitions, and TOS-1A systems. Confidence: HIGH.
- Electronic Warfare (EW): Pervasive EW employment, actively degrading Ukrainian C2 and ISR capabilities. UPDATED: Colonelcassad (010504Z JUL 25) video shows specialists working on EW, confirming continued focus on this capability. Confidence: HIGH.
- Foreign Fighter Integration: Continued reliance on and integration of foreign fighters. Confidence: HIGH.
- Air Support: Colonelcassad (010602Z JUL 25) video showing a Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter in flight indicates continued RUF air support capabilities for ground operations. Confidence: HIGH.
- Intentions:
- Donbas Seizure: Primary objective remains the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, with main efforts focused on Pokrovsk and Toretsk, and continued pressure on Chasiv Yar and Lyman. RUF claims of taking positions near Bilohorivka (Luhansk) and advances along Mokri Yaly (Southern Donetsk) reinforce this. NEW: RUF claims of breakthrough to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via Mokri Yaly (010533Z JUL 25) signal an intent for deeper penetration. NEW: RUF claims near Tyotkino, Sumy front, show intent to continue ground operations in border regions. Confidence: HIGH.
- Buffer Zone Creation: Continued efforts to establish and expand a "buffer zone" in border areas (Kharkiv, Sumy). Confidence: HIGH.
- Degradation of Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity: Systematically targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure, military administrative centers, and industrial facilities. Confirmed strikes on industrial enterprises and residential areas in Zaporizhzhia (010518Z JUL 25) underscore this intent. Confidence: HIGH.
- Information Control and Influence: Maintain robust IO campaigns to shape domestic and international narratives, undermine Ukrainian morale and international support. Intensified IO against countries like Azerbaijan. UPDATED: The "Операция Z" video on captured "traitors" (010326Z JUL 25) reinforces RUF's intent to control domestic narratives and deter internal dissent. UPDATED: TASS publishing FSB documents on "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" from 1941 (010510Z JUL 25) demonstrates an intent to draw historical parallels to discredit contemporary Ukrainian resistance. UPDATED: RUF's marking July 1st as "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" (010502Z JUL 25, 010549Z JUL 25) indicates an intent to boost military morale and public support. NEW: FSB claim of UAF chemical weapons cache (010553Z JUL 25) signifies intent to create a casus belli or justify future actions. NEW: TASS claim of UAF drone attack on civilians in Kurakhove basement (010601Z JUL 25) signifies intent to portray UAF as war criminals. NEW: Военкор Котенок (010605Z JUL 25) reinforces narrative of Russian justification for the war. Confidence: HIGH.
- Long-term Integration: Continued political and economic integration of occupied territories into the Russian Federation. Confidence: HIGH.
- Courses of Action (COAs):
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RUF will maintain sustained high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, aiming for incremental territorial gains, and continue to apply pressure on Chasiv Yar by consolidating gains in the Kanal microdistrict. They will likely launch further ground probes in Sumy and Kharkiv border regions, supported by continued FAB launches and drone activity. Deep strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and military facilities across the country will continue, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, and now specifically targeting agricultural enterprises in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia. Expect continued aggressive IO leveraging military successes and exploiting internal Ukrainian vulnerabilities, including intensified efforts to project internal strength and deter collaboration, and historical propaganda, and potentially new false flag operations related to WMD. Expect continued domestic economic adjustments (e.g., utility tariffs) to support the war effort while maintaining internal stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RUF initiates a major ground offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front, leveraging the newly deployed Kadyrovite units, aiming for a significant breakthrough or encirclement of key UAF defensive lines, potentially threatening major urban centers. This would be coupled with sustained massed missile and drone strikes aimed at overwhelming UAF air defense and critical infrastructure across Ukraine, including targeting new areas like Izhevsk (military enterprises), Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Nizhnekamsk. Confidence: MEDIUM.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
- Motorcyclist Attacks: Confirmed use of motorcycle groups in Novonikolaevka capture. Confidence: HIGH.
- UGV Deployment: First confirmed combat deployment of a remote-controlled, armed UGV in Pokrovsk direction. Confidence: HIGH.
- UAV-heavy Assaults (Siversk): Significant increase in RUF UAV crews for assault actions in Siversk. Confidence: HIGH.
- Targeting Pattern for TCCs: Confirmed successive Shahed strikes on TCC (military enlistment office) buildings. Confidence: HIGH.
- Expanded Deep Strike Range: Claims of RUF strikes on railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. UPDATED: Confirmed drone strikes on agricultural enterprises in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia. Confidence: HIGH.
- New Drone Type "Chernika": Reported first use of a new drone type in Kharkiv. Confidence: HIGH.
- EW Integration in Ground Offensive: Pervasive and systematic use of EW in Chasiv Yar. Confidence: HIGH.
- TASS video confirms RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroyed a UAF truck with an anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF AD activity over Rostov Oblast indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts into Russian territory. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF drone reconnaissance actively identifies specific UAF communication systems, patch antennas, and drone repeaters, indicating a refined ISR and targeting process. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF claims high success rate in destroying UAF UAV control points and Starlink stations (TASS, 010415Z JUL 25), indicating a focus on degrading UAF C2 and ISR. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF is escalating narrative control via state media, with TASS (010446Z JUL 25) reporting on "meat assaults" to describe UAF defensive actions near Kupyansk. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Rybar's video analysis (010500Z JUL 25) shows detailed, consistent small-unit advances along the Mokri Yaly river with methodical clearing of Ukrainian positions, suggesting a deliberate, incremental ground assault tactic. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RUF's use of a "frontline laboratory" (Colonelcassad, 010504Z JUL 25) for studying enemy drones and improving EW systems indicates an adaptive and proactive approach to counter-UAV warfare. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RUF claim of forcing the Mokri Yaly river (010533Z JUL 25) and breaking through towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast suggests a significant tactical shift or ambition for deep ground penetration. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: FSB's claim of a UAF chemical weapons cache (010553Z JUL 25) is a key information operation tactical adaptation, likely preparing for future accusations or actions. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claim of UAF drones attacking civilians in Kurakhove basement is a tactical information operation to accuse UAF of war crimes. Confidence: HIGH.
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
- Personnel: Continued reliance on foreign mercenaries suggests ongoing needs for combat personnel. Public fundraising for equipment also supplements state supply. Confidence: HIGH.
- Equipment/Materiel: Continued public fundraising for critical equipment indicates state supply chains are not fully meeting demand. Damage to 5 Su-34s in Volgograd indicates a significant materiel loss to RUF air power. UPDATED: TASS claim of evacuating an intact Leopard tank from Kursk Oblast (010340Z JUL 25) could be a propaganda effort to showcase material capture and bolster domestic perception of victory. UPDATED: Operatsiya Z (RUF channel) posts appeal for thermal imagers (010421Z JUL 25), indicating equipment shortfalls persist. UPDATED: Fighterbomber video (010421Z JUL 25) shows munitions handling at an airfield, suggesting continued air force logistics. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) appealing for Mavic drones and food/communications highlights continued reliance on public fundraising for essential battlefield equipment. Confidence: HIGH.
- Internal Corruption: Allegations of embezzlement in fortification construction (Belgorod) and the arrest of a Deputy Governor could impact local defensive readiness and resource allocation. Confidence: HIGH.
- Maritime Threats: Reports of a seventh civilian vessel linked to Russia being blown up in the Mediterranean indicate a potential new threat to Russian maritime logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russian government providing targeted assistance to coal mining companies, indicating efforts to support critical domestic industries. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: TASS reports the former top manager of the Russian Central Bank, Dmitry Rubinov, is on a wanted list for large-scale fraud, highlighting ongoing internal corruption challenges. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russian police arrested members of a synthetic drug production and distribution group in Khabarovsk Krai (Полиция Хабаровского края, 010433Z JUL 25), highlighting ongoing domestic law enforcement challenges that can divert resources and attention, though this is unlikely to directly impact military logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
- TASS reports about 30 people in Russia have been victims of Apple device blocking fraudsters this year, indicating a persistent cybercrime issue that could affect public trust and resource allocation to cybersecurity. Confidence: HIGH.
- Dmitry Islamov, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Energy, reports that the Russian coal industry would have lost 15% (65 million tons) of its output this year without anti-crisis measures, indicating ongoing economic vulnerabilities in critical sectors. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: The Russian Central Bank's signal to restructure coal miner debt suggests underlying economic stress in the sector requiring state intervention to maintain stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: "Burger Index" rising by 15% in Q1 2025 indicates inflation or rising costs within the Russian consumer market. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Price of gas in Europe increased by 40% in H1 2025 (TASS, 010404Z JUL 25), potentially benefiting Russia's energy revenues, but also indicating volatile global energy markets. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: TASS (010441Z JUL 25) reports that the wealth of Russia's richest individuals has grown by over $24.5 billion since the start of the year, indicating a concentration of wealth, potentially contrasting with state needs for military funding from public sources. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: AKORT's continued non-support for online alcohol sales (TASS, 010518Z JUL 25) is a domestic policy item that shows ongoing regulatory considerations within Russia, though not directly impacting military logistics. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: ASTRA reports (010539Z JUL 25) that utility tariffs are increasing in Russia by up to 40% in some cities starting July 1st, potentially impacting public discontent and purchasing power. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010605Z JUL 25) reports on mobile service disconnections for foreigners not providing biometrics, indicating tightening state control which could impact labor availability and logistical support. Confidence: HIGH.
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
- Centralized Control: RUF's ability to conduct massed, multi-domain strikes and to coordinate ground offensives across multiple axes indicates a centralized and relatively effective command and control structure. Confidence: HIGH.
- Adaptive Tactics: Rapid adoption of new tactics suggests a degree of tactical flexibility and adaptive C2. Confidence: HIGH.
- Information Operations Coordination: Consistent messaging across various RUF and pro-RUF channels points to a centrally coordinated and adaptive IO effort. UPDATED: The "Операция Z" video (010326Z JUL 25) demonstrates a highly centralized and aggressive IO strategy aimed at reinforcing state control and deterring dissent. UPDATED: TASS publishing historical FSB documents (010510Z JUL 25) further indicates a coordinated IO effort to frame current events through a historical lens. UPDATED: RUF's marking July 1st as "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" (010502Z JUL 25, 010549Z JUL 25) reflects a coordinated effort to boost internal military morale. NEW: The FSB chemical weapon claim (010553Z JUL 25) is a highly coordinated propaganda move. NEW: TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims of UAF drones attacking civilians in Kurakhove demonstrate coordinated IO to dehumanize UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
- Internal Issues: Reports of "refuseniks" and internal dissent suggest potential C2 challenges related to personnel management and morale, though these appear localized. Corruption related to fortifications and the recent high-profile fraud case highlight systemic issues. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- UPDATED: RUF claims of destroying 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations (TASS, 010415Z JUL 25) suggest a dedicated effort to disrupt UAF C2. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: TASS (010434Z JUL 25) reports on former Russian Prime Minister Sergey Stepashin discussing historical S-300 capabilities, potentially aiming to project confidence in Russian air defense systems. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: НгП раZVедка (010434Z JUL 25) posts a video of a concert in North Korea dedicated to "warriors who fought in Kursk Oblast," indicating deep propaganda ties and coordinated messaging with allies. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: The arrest of a professor in St. Petersburg for a pro-Ukrainian slogan (Север.Реалии, 010557Z JUL 25) highlights RUF's rigid control over internal narratives and suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
- Defensive Operations: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar) and the Sumy/Kharkiv border regions, successfully repelling numerous RUF assaults. Despite heavy pressure in Chasiv Yar's Kanal microdistrict, UAF is conducting a cohesive fighting withdrawal to prepared positions. Confidence: HIGH.
- Active Defense: UAF is capable of local counter-attacks and clearing operations (e.g., demilitarized buffer zone in Sumy, Oleksiyivka advance, Pryyutne assault). UAF successful UAV attack on a RUF airfield in Volgograd Oblast demonstrates deep strike capability against military targets. NEW: UAF drone attack on Izhevsk military enterprise and Crimea military targets (010609Z JUL 25, 010619Z JUL 25) demonstrates robust deep strike capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
- Air Defense: UAF AD remains largely effective in intercepting a significant percentage of RUF missiles and UAVs, despite saturation attacks. UPDATED: UAF AF issued a new alert for air threats at 010327Z JUL 25 and 010422Z JUL 25 for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. NEW: UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) shows effective AD against Geran drone over Odesa. NEW: UAF AF (010610Z JUL 25) issues new warning. NEW: UAF AF (010612Z JUL 25) warns of ballistic missile threat in alert areas. Confidence: HIGH.
- UAV Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone operations for kinetic strikes, reconnaissance, and counter-battery fire. NEW: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (010503Z JUL 25) posts video of "Night training with Ukrainian know-how," indicating continuous efforts to enhance drone capabilities. STERNENKO (010509Z JUL 25) also posts video showing multiple drones, indicating ongoing supply and use. NEW: UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) showing dead Russian soldier in "anti-drone pose" confirms UAF drone effectiveness. NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video highlights UJ-26 "Bober" UAV operations against Russian radar, air defense, and aircraft in Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
- Counter-Intelligence: Successful SBU operations against RUF agent networks indicate robust counter-intelligence capabilities. NEW: SBU places Russian film director Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list (010340Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- Logistical Sustainment: UAF demonstrates continued logistical support to frontline units, supplemented by significant public and international aid. Confidence: HIGH.
- Leadership and Morale: High-level strategic meetings (Zelenskyy with military leadership, including German FM) indicate continued coordinated governance. NEW: UAF General Staff (010558Z JUL 25) and Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) messages about a minute of silence for fallen soldiers reinforce national unity and remembrance. Confidence: HIGH.
- Personnel Management: Legislative changes to provide mobilization deferments for volunteers indicate proactive efforts to manage force generation. NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reports on legislation to introduce mandatory veteran employment quotas, indicating proactive efforts to reintegrate veterans. Confidence: HIGH.
- UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and RBC-Ukraine confirm the aftermath of a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, showing a burning civilian vehicle. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian areas. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Photos from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirm communal services are working to clear debris and damage from the recent RUF strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF AF continues to issue critical real-time warnings for drone threats in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF General Staff (010501Z JUL 25 and 010511Z JUL 25) provides updated operational information as of 08:00 01.07.2025, confirming consistent internal reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF Naval Forces confirm current maritime situation (010333Z JUL 25) showing no Russian naval presence in Black Sea missile carriers. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF reports "demilitarization" of 970 Russian personnel (Operatyvny ZSU, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, General Staff, RBC-Ukraine, 010357Z JUL 25-010400Z JUL 25), indicating continued effectiveness in inflicting casualties. Confidence: MEDIUM (on exact numbers); HIGH (on reported daily enemy losses by UAF).
- UPDATED: Oleksandr Vilkul (010432Z JUL 25) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning, demonstrating effective local governance and control. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010440Z JUL 25) reports on traffic disruptions due to attacks, showing transparent reporting to the public. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Valeriy Borovyk, a UAV manufacturer founder, expresses concern (010552Z JUL 25) about Kyiv's air defense deficit, indicating a perceived vulnerability. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010557Z JUL 25) gives a "Good morning" message, reflecting positive morale in UAF channels. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (010606Z JUL 25) posts a memorial graphic for a fallen soldier from Kyiv, highlighting sacrifice and memory. Confidence: HIGH.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
- Successes:
- Donetsk: Repelling 41 assaults near Pokrovsk (last 24 hours). UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties. UAF capture of Russian POWs. UAF strikes on Donetsk and Yasynuvata. Confidence: HIGH.
- Sumy: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms RUF advance completely stopped. UAF successfully repelled 16/22 RUF assaults. SSO UA_REG_Team cleared a "demilitarized buffer zone" of Russian soldiers. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kharkiv: GUR fighters ambushed and "mowed down" an enemy motor group. Phoenix unit identified and destroyed a RUF BMP and checkpoint. UAF AD shot down a Molniya UAV over Kharkiv. Confidence: HIGH.
- Zaporizhzhia: UAF repelling RUF attempts to capture a bridgehead in Kamyanske. Successful tactical assault by 23rd Separate Brigade capturing two opponents in Pryyutne. Confidence: HIGH.
- Odesa: 14 Shahed UAVs destroyed by UAF AD. SBU detained RUF agents. NEW: UAF video (010532Z JUL 25) confirms destruction of a "Geran" UAV. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kyiv: UAF AD effectively repelled massed missile and drone attack, neutralizing 475 out of over 500 targets. Confidence: HIGH.
- Southern Front: BUKUTUSOV PLUS video claims a highly successful UAF precision strike by MiG-29s with GBU-39 bombs destroying a RUF UAV repair base and drone operators. Confidence: HIGH.
- UAV attack on Volgograd airfield, damaging 5 Su-34 jets. Confidence: HIGH.
- UN internal analysis confirms Olenivka was a "carefully planned crime" by RUF. Confidence: HIGH.
- Germany's reported support for Ukraine's NATO entry. Confidence: HIGH.
- Return of three teenagers from occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: SBU announced Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: US Congress demands return of abducted Ukrainian children. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF UAV activity targeting Rostov Oblast indicates continued deep strike capability. Confidence: MEDIUM (on BDA). STERNENKO (010436Z JUL 25) shows videos consistent with AD activity over Rostov. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF Naval Forces report (010333Z JUL 25) shows no Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea, indicating successful deterrence or interdiction. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Canada provided $1.7 billion in financial aid from frozen Russian assets (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 010415Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF reports 970 RUF personnel "demilitarized" (010357Z JUL 25 - 010400Z JUL 25 sources). Confidence: MEDIUM.
- NEW: Two Mayors (010458Z JUL 25) report Poland is increasing ammunition production by 5 times, directly supporting UAF's long-term sustainability. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) confirms effective drone operations against Russian soldiers. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Confirmed UAF drone attack on an enterprise in Izhevsk, Russia (010609Z JUL 25, 010611Z JUL 25, 010624Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010619Z JUL 25) video shows UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs successfully attacking Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft in Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: UAF AF (010616Z JUL 25) detects and reports high-speed target on Kropyvnytskyi. Confidence: HIGH.
- Setbacks:
- Donetsk (Chasiv Yar): RUF has successfully established a foothold in the Kanal microdistrict, east of the canal. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kharkiv: RUF ground attacks on Vovchansk and Lyptsi continue. Oleg Syniehubov (010517Z JUL 25) confirms 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast subjected to strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
- Deep Strikes: Continued successful RUF strikes on critical infrastructure in rear areas (Drohobych, Kremenchug, Odesa), military facilities (Konotop, Kryvyi Rih TCC, Korotych airfield, agricultural enterprise in Polohy district), and civilian areas (Pisochyn, Smila, Odesa residential building, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). Loss of two UAF Air Force pilots. UPDATED: Confirmed drone strikes on agricultural enterprises in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 010430Z JUL 25; Оперативний ЗСУ, 010447Z JUL 25) and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia (010518Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- Territorial Losses (Claimed): RUF claims of taking Novonikolaevka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Udachne. Colonelcassad claims "liberation" of Dachne in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Rybar (010500Z JUL 25) details consistent incremental gains along Mokri Yaly river. TASS (010524Z JUL 25) claims pushing UAF out of positions near Bilohorivka. NEW: RUF claims breakthrough to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via Mokri Yaly (010533Z JUL 25). NEW: RUF claims storming positions near Tyotkino, Sumy front (010604Z JUL 25). Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Casualties: Significant civilian casualties reported across multiple oblasts. Military casualties from persistent combat. NEW: KVA (010606Z JUL 25) posts memorial for fallen soldier. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010609Z JUL 25) reports two wounded civilians in Polohy district. Confidence: HIGH.
- EW Impact: Pervasive RUF EW is degrading Ukrainian C2 and ISR capabilities. Confidence: HIGH.
- RUF drone unit "Bars-31" claims to have destroyed a UAF truck with an anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district, confirmed by UAF sources. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Continued drone threats in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts highlight persistent aerial challenges. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RUF claims destruction of a UAF company in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast (010336Z JUL 25). This requires verification but indicates ongoing heavy fighting and potential for significant losses. Confidence: LOW (on UAF losses); HIGH (on RUF claim).
- UPDATED: Civilian casualties continue in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010410Z JUL 25). ASTRA (010451Z JUL 25) provides photo confirmation. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: A UAF International MaxxPro MRAP was lost to an alleged mine strike and FPV drones in Southern Donetsk direction (Colonelcassad video, 010500Z JUL 25). Confidence: MEDIUM.
- UPDATED: RUF claims destruction of 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations (TASS, 010415Z JUL 25), if accurate, would represent a significant setback to UAF C2/ISR. Confidence: LOW (on verified BDA).
- NEW: Valeriy Borovyk warns of critical air defense deficit for Kyiv (010552Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010604Z JUL 25) map indicates Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is now perceived as a "warring" area, reflecting increased threat perception. Confidence: HIGH.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
- Air Defense: Continued high expenditure of AD munitions against sustained RUF missile and drone attacks. Need for additional AD systems, particularly for mobile battlefield protection. German FM visit discussing potential transfer of additional AD is positive. NEW: Kyiv's perceived critical AD deficit (010552Z JUL 25) highlights urgent requirement. NEW: Ballistic missile threat on Kropyvnytskyi and Huliaipole (010616Z JUL 25, 010617Z JUL 25, 010621Z JUL 25) highlights urgent need for layered AD. Confidence: HIGH.
- Ammunition: Continued need for artillery and other munitions for sustained defensive and counter-offensive operations. Poland's fivefold increase in ammunition production is a significant positive. Confidence: HIGH.
- Drones and EW: Continued demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones, and counter-drone/EW systems. UAF fundraising efforts indicate ongoing need. NEW: STERNENKO (010509Z JUL 25) video showing numerous drones and appeal for donations confirms this ongoing requirement. Confidence: HIGH.
- Logistics Security: Norwegian F-35 deployment to protect the Polish aid hub highlights ongoing vulnerability of logistical supply lines. Confidence: HIGH.
- Personnel: Ongoing need for personnel, managed through mobilization and volunteer incentives. NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reports on veteran employment quotas, indicating proactive efforts for personnel reintegration. Confidence: HIGH.
- EW Capabilities: Immediate need for mobile friendly EW teams to counter Russian drone reconnaissance and C2 nodes. Confidence: HIGH.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
- RUF Narratives:
- "Liberation" Narrative: RUF continues to frame territorial gains as "liberation," especially in Donetsk, and claims 100% "liberation" of LNR. Confidence: HIGH.
- Demoralization/Attrition: Propagating narratives of high UAF losses, low morale, and forced mobilization. UPDATED: TASS claim of destroying a UAF company in Yunakivka (010336Z JUL 25) and "Операция Z" video on captured "traitors" (010326Z JUL 25) directly support this narrative. UPDATED: TASS (010446Z JUL 25) reporting on "meat assaults" near Kupyansk further reinforces this. NEW: Операция Z (010604Z JUL 25) claims Russian paratroopers "destroyed" UAF infantry near Tyotkino. Confidence: HIGH.
- Discrediting Western Aid: Highlighting vulnerabilities of Western military equipment. UPDATED: TASS claim of evacuating an intact Leopard tank from Kursk Oblast (010340Z JUL 25) and the claimed destruction of a MaxxPro MRAP (Colonelcassad, 010500Z JUL 25) supports the narrative of Western equipment being vulnerable or ineffective. Confidence: HIGH.
- False Flag/Blame Shifting: Accusing Ukraine of war crimes, actively denying the UN analysis on Olenivka. NEW: TASS (010503Z JUL 25) reports Russia will study OPCW report on alleged poisonous substances in Ukraine, showing an intent to counter international accusations or shift blame. NEW: FSB claims (010553Z JUL 25) discovery of a UAF chemical weapons cache in DNR, a likely false flag operation to justify future actions or accusations against UAF. NEW: TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims UAF drones attacked a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russian Resilience/Strength: Promoting domestic stability, showcasing military capabilities (new RUF video of Bars-31 drone unit destroying a UAF truck). Confidence: HIGH. Yaroslav Nilov's proposal for "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" aims to boost morale and national pride. UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts focusing on "brotherhood" (010331Z JUL 25) contribute to this. UPDATED: AKORT statement on foreign retailers staying (TASS, 010306Z JUL 25) aims to convey economic stability. UPDATED: TASS (010434Z JUL 25) commentary on S-300 capabilities aims to project confidence in Russian AD. UPDATED: НгП раZVедка (010434Z JUL 25) sharing North Korean concert footage about "warriors who fought in Kursk" indicates efforts to strengthen patriotic narratives and show international support. UPDATED: Архангел Спецназа (010449Z JUL 25) promotes a narrative of "restoration is our victory in peacetime." UPDATED: WarGonzo (010502Z JUL 25) marking "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" reinforces this. NEW: Fighterbomber (010549Z JUL 25) echoing "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" further solidifies this message. NEW: Colonelcassad (010602Z JUL 25) showing a Ka-52 helicopter highlights military power. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010613Z JUL 25) promoting national unity and economic stability with "Together with Russia" messaging. Confidence: HIGH.
- Anti-Azerbaijan Sentiment: Escalating IO against Azerbaijan. Confidence: HIGH.
- Targeting Civilian Objects: RUF claims responsibility for strikes on civilian infrastructure and often portrays them as legitimate military targets or attributes civilian casualties to UAF AD. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Russian police video on drug crime in Khabarovsk Krai (010433Z JUL 25) reinforces domestic law and order narrative. TASS report on former Central Bank manager's fraud case highlights the ongoing "fight against corruption" narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Russian state media highlights measures to support key industries (coal miners) to demonstrate economic stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Announcement of unified Russian language exams for foreigners entering universities aims to promote Russia as an attractive destination for foreign talent or influence. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: The "Burger Index" increase could be used by RUF media to highlight internal economic growth or stability, depending on the framing. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- NEW: TASS (010510Z JUL 25) publishing FSB documents on "Ukrainian nationalist organization spies" from 1941 seeks to delegitimize the modern Ukrainian state by linking it to historical figures portrayed as enemies of Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: The arrest of a professor in St. Petersburg for a pro-Ukrainian slogan (Север.Реалии, 010557Z JUL 25) sends a strong message of internal suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Военкор Котенок (010605Z JUL 25) commentary on the "Ukrainian war" seeks to frame the conflict as defensive and justified. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010605Z JUL 25) reporting on mobile service disconnection for foreigners not providing biometrics reinforces state control. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010606Z JUL 25, 010608Z JUL 25, 010610Z JUL 25) reports on Russian holiday calendars for 2026, aimed at projecting normalcy and stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- Ukrainian Narratives:
- Heroism and Resilience: Highlighting individual acts of bravery, units' combat successes, and civilian resilience. UPDATED: Reporting of 970 Russian personnel "demilitarized" (010357Z JUL 25 sources) reinforces UAF effectiveness. UPDATED: Oleksandr Vilkul (010432Z JUL 25) reporting "situation controlled" in Kryvyi Rih aims to reassure the public. UPDATED: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (010503Z JUL 25) video on "Night training with Ukrainian know-how" emphasizes adaptation and skill. NEW: UAF video (010554Z JUL 25) showing dead Russian soldier in "anti-drone pose" can be used to promote UAF battlefield effectiveness. NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010559Z JUL 25) promote a minute of silence for fallen soldiers, reinforcing national unity. NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) highlights veteran support initiatives. NEW: КМВА (010606Z JUL 25) memorial graphic for fallen soldier. NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010557Z JUL 25) "Good morning" message indicates positive morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russian War Crimes: Reporting on alleged war crimes by RUF soldiers and showing damaged civilian infrastructure. UPDATED: News of Ukrainian woman and child killed in Germany (RBC-Ukraine, 010358Z JUL 25), while not directly combat-related, could be used to highlight the continued dangers faced by Ukrainians due to the conflict and displacement. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russian Attrition: Emphasizing high RUF casualties and equipment losses (e.g., damaged Su-34s at Volgograd airfield). NEW: UAF drone attack on Izhevsk military enterprise and Crimea military targets (010609Z JUL 25, 010619Z JUL 25) highlights RUF losses. Confidence: HIGH.
- Exposing Russian Weaknesses: Highlighting RUF personnel issues, internal corruption, and perceived foreign policy missteps. UPDATED: Operatsiya Z's appeal for thermal imagers (010421Z JUL 25) could be exploited to highlight RUF equipment deficiencies. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (010603Z JUL 25) appeal for donations for drones and supplies highlights continued RUF reliance on public. Confidence: HIGH.
- International Support: Showcasing diplomatic visits and military aid commitments. Confidence: HIGH.
- Government Functionality: Demonstrating continued operation of state services and judicial processes. Confidence: HIGH.
- The return of three teenagers from occupied territories is a strong positive narrative for UAF. Confidence: HIGH.
- Ukrainian officials continue to highlight the deliberate targeting of civilian areas by RUF, as evidenced by the 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and the casualty in Polohy district. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: SBU's announcement of Nikita Mikhalkov on the wanted list reinforces the narrative of Ukrainian law enforcement pursuing individuals deemed hostile to Ukraine's sovereignty. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: US Congressional demand for the return of abducted Ukrainian children adds significant international pressure and reinforces the narrative of Russian war crimes. NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010606Z JUL 25) reports US Congress resolution on abducted children. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF AF real-time alerts emphasize persistent RUF threats, bolstering vigilance and confirming RUF aggression. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Keith Kellogg's statement (010339Z JUL 25) that Russia must move to trilateral negotiations reinforces international pressure on Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine (010441Z JUL 25) reports on US aid to Israel (JDAM systems), which could be framed as continued Western support for allies. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine (010516Z JUL 25) provides a summary of "News for this night," showing consistent and timely public reporting. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010530Z JUL 25) analysis of global water conflicts demonstrates UAF focus on broader geopolitical issues. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Valeriy Borovyk's warning about Kyiv's air defense deficit (010552Z JUL 25) reflects a candid and transparent assessment of challenges, potentially intended to spur action. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (010604Z JUL 25) map indicating Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as "warring" raises public awareness of threat. Confidence: HIGH.
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
- Ukrainian Morale:
- Resilience: Continued operation of civilian services and community events indicate civilian resilience. Confidence: HIGH.
- Impact of Casualties: Civilian casualties from missile/drone strikes cause grief and anger, fueling resolve but also increasing stress. Loss of pilots highlights the personal cost. UPDATED: The news of the Ukrainian woman and child murdered in Germany (RBC-Ukraine, 010358Z JUL 25) while not directly linked to the conflict, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Ukrainians abroad and could evoke strong emotional responses and impact morale. NEW: KVA (010606Z JUL 25) memorial graphic for a fallen soldier. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010609Z JUL 25) reporting wounded civilians. Confidence: HIGH.
- Mobilization: Internal policy changes on mobilization deferment indicate an awareness of public sentiment. NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010604Z JUL 25) reporting on veteran employment quotas as government support. Confidence: HIGH.
- Trust in Government: SBU's successful counter-intelligence operations and UN analysis on Olenivka likely bolster public trust. Confidence: HIGH.
- The return of three teenagers from occupied territories will likely boost national morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: SBU placing Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list might be viewed positively as an assertion of sovereignty and justice. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Public display of communal services clearing debris in Zaporizhzhia reinforces a sense of order and government response to attacks, which supports morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: UAF AF alerts contribute to public awareness of ongoing threats and potentially reinforce collective resolve. NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (010612Z JUL 25) issues new alert. NEW: UAF AF (010612Z JUL 25) warns of ballistic threat. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010440Z JUL 25) transparently reporting traffic disruptions due to attacks supports public trust. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: STERNENKO's video (010509Z JUL 25) with donation appeal indicates active civilian participation in supporting the war effort, a positive morale indicator. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Valeriy Borovyk's public concern about Kyiv's air defense (010552Z JUL 25) may cause anxiety but also fosters a sense of shared challenge and the need for public support. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (010559Z JUL 25) and Operatyvny ZSU (010600Z JUL 25) promote a minute of silence, fostering unity and remembrance. Confidence: HIGH.
- Russian Morale:
- Domestic Support: Government efforts to provide benefits for military families aim to maintain domestic support. Confidence: HIGH. Proposal for "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" aims to boost morale. UPDATED: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message (010331Z JUL 25) on "brotherhood" promotes unit cohesion. UPDATED: Новости Москвы (010430Z JUL 25) promoting benefits for "Mother-Heroines" aims to boost morale and support for demographic policies. UPDATED: WarGonzo (010502Z JUL 25) marking "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" reinforces this. NEW: Fighterbomber (010549Z JUL 25) echoing "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" contributes to this. NEW: TASS (010606Z JUL 25, 010608Z JUL 25, 010610Z JUL 25) reports on Russian holiday calendar for 2026, aimed at promoting normalcy. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (010613Z JUL 25) public event aims to rally support. Confidence: HIGH.
- Internal Dissent: Reports of deserting servicemen and attempted arson indicate isolated but significant instances of internal dissent. UPDATED: The "Операция Z" video on captured "traitors" (010326Z JUL 25) is a direct response to internal dissent and aims to deter it through public shaming and punishment. UPDATED: "Север.Реалии" reports (010359Z JUL 25) a quote from a Russian citizen stating that Western sanctions "make things worse for themselves, they ruin their economy," suggesting a narrative of resilience against sanctions, potentially aimed at bolstering public confidence. NEW: The arrest of a professor in St. Petersburg for a pro-Ukrainian slogan (Север.Реалии, 010557Z JUL 25) highlights severe suppression of dissent. Confidence: HIGH.
- Corruption: High-profile arrest of a Belgorod Deputy Governor and the former Central Bank manager could erode public trust or reinforce a perception of active government efforts against corruption. Confidence: HIGH.
- Economic Impact: Reports of rising utility tariffs and concerns over bank stability could affect public sentiment. Deputy Head of Ministry of Energy's comments on coal industry vulnerabilities may suggest underlying economic stress. UPDATED: TASS reports (010404Z JUL 25) a 40% rise in European gas prices, which could be framed positively domestically as a sign of Russian economic leverage. UPDATED: TASS (010441Z JUL 25) reporting on increased wealth of Russian billionaires may be used to project economic success, but could also cause resentment if economic disparities are highlighted. NEW: ASTRA reports (010539Z JUL 25) a 40% rise in utility tariffs for some Russian cities, directly impacting public sentiment negatively. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Law enforcement efforts against drug crime (Полиция Хабаровского края, 010433Z JUL 25) and cybercrime, as seen in Khabarovsk Krai and with Apple blocking, could contribute to a perception of domestic stability and effective governance, potentially bolstering morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Reports of explosions and sirens in Saratov and Engels, while unconfirmed as UAF action, may cause civilian anxiety and potentially erode confidence in domestic security. NEW: Saratov airport restrictions lifted (010510Z JUL 25) can be used to reassure population. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Unverified video footage of alleged UAF drone attacks in Rostov Oblast, even if showing pyrotechnics, can generate anxiety or solidify anti-Ukrainian sentiment, depending on local media framing. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: The "yellow threat level" being lifted in a Russian region (Igor Artamonov) suggests efforts to reassure the public about security, which can boost local morale. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Temporary flight restrictions at Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports (010415Z JUL 25, 010416Z JUL 25, 010422Z JUL 25) may cause public inconvenience or anxiety if perceived as a result of external threats. NEW: New restrictions at Izhevsk airport (010533Z JUL 25, 010556Z JUL 25) reinforce this. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Long queue at Crimean bridge (TASS, 010422Z JUL 25) may indicate civilian holiday travel or a sense of normalcy, but could also be viewed as an inconvenience or security risk by the local population. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010510Z JUL 25) publishing FSB documents on historical "spies" might aim to reinforce national unity against external threats, but also risks alienating segments of the population. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010518Z JUL 25) reporting on AKORT's stance on alcohol sales indicates a focus on maintaining social order and stability. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: TASS (010601Z JUL 25) claims of UAF drones attacking civilians in Kurakhove is designed to evoke fear and anti-Ukrainian sentiment. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Confirmed drone attack on Izhevsk (010609Z JUL 25, 010611Z JUL 25, 010624Z JUL 25) may cause anxiety in Russian population, challenging sense of security. Confidence: HIGH.
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
- Support for Ukraine:
- Germany: New German FM's visit and discussions on AD systems signify continued strong support. Confidence: HIGH.
- Poland: Fivefold increase in ammunition production. NEW: Two Mayors (010458Z JUL 25) confirms Poland's increased ammunition production, a direct material support. Confidence: HIGH.
- Norway: F-35 deployment to protect Polish aid hub. Confidence: HIGH.
- UN: Internal UN analysis on Olenivka strengthens international condemnation. Confidence: HIGH.
- IMF: Ukraine will receive half a billion dollars from the IMF. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: US Congress demanding return of abducted Ukrainian children. NEW: Operatyvny ZSU (010606Z JUL 25) reports US Congress resolution on abducted children. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Keith Kellogg's statement calling for trilateral negotiations (010339Z JUL 25) indicates continued international diplomatic pressure on Russia. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Canada provided $1.7 billion in financial aid from frozen Russian assets (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 010415Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: RBC-Ukraine (010451Z JUL 25) reports EU agreement on Trump's 10% tariff, potentially a broader economic development. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010530Z JUL 25) on global water conflicts, highlighting Ukraine's integration into global security discourse. Confidence: HIGH.
- Support for Russia:
- North Korea: Russia's cultural cooperation plan with North Korea indicates deepening ties. UPDATED: НгП раZVедка (010434Z JUL 25) posts video of a concert in North Korea dedicated to "warriors who fought in Kursk Oblast," demonstrating propaganda cooperation. Confidence: HIGH.
- Iran: Iran's summoning of Ukrainian charge d'affaires over "support for aggression" against the republic suggests alignment with Russia's narrative. Confidence: HIGH.
- China: Russia's sharply increased metal exports to China indicate growing economic support. Confidence: HIGH.
- Shifting Alliances/Tensions:
- Azerbaijan-Russia: Rapidly escalating diplomatic and intelligence tensions. NEW: TASS (010623Z JUL 25) reports Ambassador of Azerbaijan arrived at Russian MFA, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement on this tension. Confidence: HIGH.
- Armenia-EU: Armenia initiating discussions with EU on defense cooperation indicates a potential shift away from Russia's orbit. Confidence: HIGH.
- TASS reports Trump announced the launch of a perfume, "Trump Victory." This is a non-military, soft power development that has no direct impact on the conflict. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Trump's executive order revoking Syria sanctions indicates a potential shift in US foreign policy that could have broader geopolitical implications for Russia's standing and influence in the Middle East. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Bloomberg reports Netanyahu will visit Trump on July 7 regarding ending the Gaza war (010347Z JUL 25), a separate but significant international development that could indirectly influence global attention and resource allocation. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: RBC-Ukraine (010508Z JUL 25) and Оперативний ЗСУ (010548Z JUL 25) reports on Trump's post regarding Elon Musk's return to South Africa, a domestic US political-social development. Confidence: HIGH.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
- Donbas (Pokrovsk-Toretsk-Chasiv Yar): RUF will maintain its primary offensive effort, conducting persistent, high-intensity assaults with combined arms. The objective remains to advance towards Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), solidify control over the axis, and continue to press on Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, focusing on consolidating gains within the Kanal microdistrict. Continued KAB/KAR launches into Donetsk Oblast. RUF will continue to employ sophisticated drone ISR to identify UAF positions, C2 nodes, and logistics for precision targeting, and will likely prioritize efforts to disrupt UAF UAV operations and Starlink communications. RUF will continue incremental gains along the Mokri Yaly river, and will likely attempt to exploit any breakthroughs. Confidence: HIGH.
- Deep Strikes: RUF will continue to launch massed missile and Shahed UAV attacks targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure, military administrative centers, and major urban areas (e.g., Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk). Expect continued adaptive tactics in drone employment and increased use of precision-guided munitions. Ballistic missile threats will likely continue against southern regions and new targets like Kropyvnytskyi. Continued KAB/KAR launches into Kharkiv Oblast and confirmed into Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH. RUF will continue attempts at deep strikes into Russian border regions to degrade UAF deep strike capabilities or infrastructure, and will implement air defense alerts and flight restrictions at airports in response to perceived UAF drone threats. Confidence: HIGH.
- Kharkiv/Sumy Border: RUF will likely continue ground probes and limited assaults along the border to fix Ukrainian forces and expand the "buffer zone," maintaining artillery and air pressure. RUF claims of destroying UAF units will be used for propaganda. Confidence: HIGH.
- Electronic Warfare: Continued and possibly increased deployment of EW systems to degrade UAF C2 and drone operations, particularly in key offensive sectors like Chasiv Yar. Efforts to neutralize Starlink will persist. RUF will continue to develop and implement counter-UAV and EW capabilities based on battlefield analysis of UAF systems. Confidence: HIGH.
- Information Operations: RUF will sustain a multi-faceted IO campaign, focusing on: (1) amplifying UAF losses and internal issues; (2) discrediting Western support, potentially through showcasing captured equipment; (3) promoting narratives of Russian strength and justification for the war, including historical revisionism; and (4) exploiting internal dissent through public punishment of "traitors." Expect increased messaging around national veterans' day, economic resilience (despite rising utility tariffs), and military self-sufficiency (e.g., appeals for equipment). RUF will likely continue to engage with international reports (e.g., OPCW) to shape narratives. NEW: RUF will likely conduct further false flag operations, possibly involving claims of UAF WMD use (e.g., chemical weapons cache) and UAF targeting of civilians (e.g., Kurakhove basement). Confidence: HIGH.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
- Zaporizhzhia Offensive: RUF commits a significant operational reserve, including the newly transferred Kadyrovite units, to launch a large-scale, concentrated offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front, aiming for a deep breakthrough or to isolate/encircle key UAF defensive lines, potentially threatening major urban centers. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Expanded Combined Arms Breakthrough (Donbas/Dnipropetrovsk): RUF achieves a decisive operational breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis or specifically along the Mokri Yaly river, leveraging massed combined arms and novel systems (e.g., UGVs), including new claimed penetrations towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to collapse UAF defensive lines and rapidly advance towards key strategic objectives. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- Strategic Deception Operation (Kharkiv/Sumy): The current limited offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy is revealed as a large-scale deception operation, designed to draw and fix UAF strategic reserves, while the true main effort is launched with overwhelming force in another sector. Confidence: LOW.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
- Immediate (Next 24-48 hours):
- Continued high-intensity combat on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with RUF prioritizing consolidation and clearance of Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar. Decision point for UAF on deployment of tactical reserves.
- Ongoing deep strikes across Ukraine, particularly with renewed ballistic missile threats against Mykolaiv and persistent drone threats against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Increased aerial threats to Sumy Oblast with new KAB/KAR launch reports and UAV threat to Kharkiv. Threat of aviation-launched weapons in Zaporizhzhia persists. New threat of strike UAVs to Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, with confirmed strikes on agricultural enterprises and industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia. Urgent ballistic missile threat to Kropyvnytskyi and Huliaipole. Decision point for UAF on activation of additional AD assets/reserves.
- Monitoring of Kadyrovite deployment in Zaporizhzhia for signs of large-scale offensive preparations. Decision point for UAF on pre-positioning reserves.
- Monitoring of RUF use of motorcycles and UGVs for immediate counter-tactics development.
- Immediate monitoring of Novopavlivka direction for RUF activity, specifically in areas along the Mokri Yaly river, including claims of breakthrough towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast.
- Continued monitoring of Russia-Azerbaijan diplomatic and intelligence tensions.
- Continued monitoring of RUF's response to the confirmed damage to 5 Su-34 jets at the Volgograd airfield.
- Increased KAB/KAR launches into Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts require immediate assessment of target areas and UAF AD response.
- Monitor the situation in Dachne, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, following RUF claims of "liberation."
- Monitor for further UAF strikes on Donetsk and RUF's response.
- Monitor the impact of weather conditions on RUF air operations and ground mobility.
- Monitor for further details and casualties from the RUF attack in Zaporizhzhia. Immediate BDA for the 4 confirmed strikes on Zaporizhzhia and the casualty in Polohy district, and the Shahed strikes on industrial/residential areas in Zaporizhzhia. New report of two wounded in Polohy district needs immediate assessment.
- Monitor RUF claims of destroying UAF equipment (e.g., anti-aircraft trucks, MaxxPro MRAP, UAF company in Yunakivka).
- UPDATED: Monitor the impact of temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport and civilian reports of explosions/sirens in Saratov/Engels. Confidence: HIGH.
- Monitor the domestic impact of the high-profile fraud case involving former Central Bank manager Rubinov. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Monitor RUF AD activity in Rostov Oblast for patterns indicating UAF deep strike capabilities and intentions. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Monitor unverified RUF sources like "Военкор Котенок" for emerging narratives or claimed breakthroughs in the "Dnipropetrovsk direction." Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Monitor temporary flight restrictions at Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports for duration and any linked military activity. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Monitor RUF efforts to showcase captured Western equipment, such as the Leopard tank. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Monitor RUF appeals for thermal imagers as an indicator of sustained equipment shortfalls. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Monitor RUF narratives related to "meat assaults" near Kupyansk. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor RUF response to OPCW report on poisonous substances in Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor claimed RUF advances near Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor the implications of Valeriy Borovyk's warning about Kyiv's air defense deficit. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor for any follow-up on the FSB claim of a UAF chemical weapons cache. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor Izhevsk airport restrictions and BDA on military enterprise. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor FSB claim of UAF drone attack on civilians in Kurakhove basement for further evidence. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor for any increase in Ka-52 activity in combat zones. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Monitor UAF deep strikes against Russian military targets in Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
- Short-term (Next 72-96 hours):
- Assessment of RUF's ability to sustain current offensive tempo in Donetsk.
- Evaluation of the effectiveness of new RUF tactical adaptations, particularly their counter-UAV and EW improvements.
- Continued monitoring of Russian second-echelon forces in Belgorod.
- Evaluation of the domestic and international impact of RUF's escalated IO against Azerbaijan.
- Observe public reaction and any potential unrest in Russia due to economic issues, including coal industry vulnerabilities and inflation (especially rising utility tariffs).
- Monitor Iran-Ukraine diplomatic relations following the protest note.
- Observe any further impacts of the SBU's placement of Nikita Mikhalkov on wanted list. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Assess the impact of Trump's executive order on Syria sanctions on regional dynamics and Russia's foreign policy maneuvering. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Observe any Russian diplomatic responses to Keith Kellogg's statement on trilateral negotiations. Confidence: HIGH.
- UPDATED: Assess the impact of claimed UAF losses of UAV control points and Starlink stations on battlefield communications and ISR. Confidence: MEDIUM.
- UPDATED: Assess the significance of North Korean propaganda linked to Russian military activity in Kursk Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Assess the impact of Russia's historical propaganda (FSB documents) on domestic and international audiences. Confidence: HIGH.
- NEW: Assess the impact of Russian mobile service disconnection for foreigners on labor. Confidence: HIGH.
- Mid-term (Next 1-2 weeks):
- Evaluation of the impact of deep strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
- Assessment of international diplomatic developments, particularly the Azerbaijan-Russia tension.
- Observation of RUF force generation and replenishment rates.
- Initial assessment of the effectiveness of UAF drone interceptor technologies.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Intelligence Gap 1: RUF Second Echelon (Kharkiv/Sumy).
- Requirement: Confirm the composition, strength, and disposition of Russian operational reserves in Belgorod Oblast and adjacent areas.
- Collection Methods: SIGINT (communications intercepts), IMINT (satellite imagery analysis of staging areas, railway hubs), OSINT (monitoring Russian military social media, local reports).
- Intelligence Gap 2: Specifics of New RUF UAVs and Anti-Drone Systems.
- Requirement: Characterize the capabilities, operational patterns, and production rates of new RUF drone types. Validate claims and characterize effectiveness of alleged new RUF anti-drone "combat beam" systems.
- Collection Methods: TECHINT (analysis of captured drones/debris), SIGINT (monitoring drone control frequencies), MASINT (radar signatures), OSINT (analysis of RUF drone communities, propaganda videos).
- Intelligence Gap 3: Scale of Kadyrovite Deployment and Intent in Zaporizhzhia.
- Requirement: Confirm the precise numbers, equipment, and tactical intent of Kadyrovite and other RUF forces transferring to the Zaporizhzhia axis.
- Collection Methods: HUMINT (source reporting), SIGINT (monitoring communications), IMINT (satellite imagery of troop movements, staging areas).
- Intelligence Gap 4: Effectiveness of UAF Fortifications in Kharkiv.
- Requirement: Assess the performance of newly constructed UAF defensive lines under sustained RUF combined-arms assault in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (drone footage, satellite imagery), HUMINT (battlefield reports), SIGINT (enemy BDA reports).
- Intelligence Gap 5: Impact of Internal Corruption on RUF Fortifications.
- Requirement: Quantify the extent to which corruption has impacted the quality and effectiveness of RUF defensive fortifications.
- Collection Methods: HUMINT (source reporting), OSINT (investigative journalism), IMINT (comparative analysis).
- Intelligence Gap 6: Details of RUF "Shahed" Tactical Adaptation and UAF Interceptor Breakthroughs.
- Requirement: Understand the specific changes in RUF Shahed tactics. Assess the technical specifications and scalability of the reported UAF interceptor breakthroughs.
- Collection Methods: TECHINT (analysis of AD engagements), SIGINT (monitoring RUF flight control data), OSINT (AD specialist commentary).
- Intelligence Gap 7: RUF EW System Locations and Capabilities in Chasiv Yar.
- Requirement: Identify precise locations and detailed capabilities of key Russian EW systems impacting Ukrainian C2 and ISR in the Chasiv Yar sector.
- Collection Methods: SIGINT (EW signal analysis), MASINT (spectral analysis), HUMINT (battlefield reports), OSINT (RUF propaganda).
- Intelligence Gap 8: Veracity and Impact of Ceasefire Calls.
- Requirement: Verify the authenticity and prevalence of Ukrainian officials privately calling for a ceasefire. Assess internal and external implications.
- Collection Methods: HUMINT (diplomatic and political sources), OSINT (monitoring international media).
- Intelligence Gap 9: Tactical Details of RUF "Krasnopol" Strikes and Effectiveness.
- Requirement: Assess the frequency, accuracy, and BDA of RUF "Krasnopol" guided artillery shell strikes.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (drone footage), HUMINT (UAF frontline reports), SIGINT (enemy fire control intercepts).
- Intelligence Gap 10: Extent of Russian Internal Dissent and its Impact.
- Requirement: Assess the scale, organization, and potential impact of internal dissent within Russia on force generation and morale.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian social media, independent media), HUMINT (emigrant networks).
- Intelligence Gap 11: Impact of UAF strike on Volgograd airfield.
- Requirement: Conduct BDA to confirm the extent of damage to Su-34 aircraft at Volgograd airfield and assess its impact on RUF air operations.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery), OSINT (monitoring RUF media).
- Intelligence Gap 12: RUF claims on Dachne (Dnipro Oblast).
- Requirement: Verify the accuracy of RUF claims of liberating Dachne, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, and the extent of their control.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports).
- Intelligence Gap 13: UAF Strike on Donetsk.
- Requirement: Conduct BDA to confirm the target and damage caused by the UAF missile strike on Donetsk.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, local photography/video), OSINT (local reports, RUF media).
- Intelligence Gap 14: UAF Strike on Luhansk.
- Requirement: Conduct BDA to confirm the target and extent of damage caused by the UAF drone attack on Luhansk.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, local photography/video), OSINT (local reports, RUF AD).
- Intelligence Gap 15: Impact of Telegram Outages in Russia.
- Requirement: Assess the cause, duration, and geographic scope of the Telegram outages in Russia.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian news, user reports), SIGINT (monitoring internet traffic anomalies).
- Intelligence Gap 16: Maritime Threats to Russian-linked Shipping.
- Requirement: Investigate the explosion of the tanker near Libya and any other reported incidents involving Russian-linked civilian vessels.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (maritime news, shipping tracking data), HUMINT (shipping industry contacts).
- Intelligence Gap 17: Russian Claims about Ukrainian Volunteer Equipment.
- Requirement: Investigate the veracity of Russian claims that Ukrainian volunteers are purchasing expensive and unnecessary equipment for the AFU.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Ukrainian volunteer fundraising), HUMINT (interviews).
- Intelligence Gap 18: Specifics on Russian pension benefits for work in Ukraine.
- Requirement: Understand the exact eligibility criteria and implementation details.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (analysis of Russian government decrees, local media).
- Intelligence Gap 19: RUF's creation of verified lists of political prisoners in Ukraine.
- Requirement: Identify the specific organizations or individuals within RUF responsible for creating these lists.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian state media, human rights reports), HUMINT (information from affected individuals).
- Intelligence Gap 20: Return of Ukrainian teenagers from occupied territories.
- Requirement: Gather details on the specific circumstances and organizations involved.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Ukrainian government reports, humanitarian organizations).
- Intelligence Gap 21: BDA for new RUF strike in Zaporizhzhia.
- Requirement: Conduct BDA to confirm the target and extent of damage from the new RUF attack in Zaporizhzhia.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, local photography/video), OSINT (local reports, UAF statements).
- Intelligence Gap 22: Details on civilian casualties in Plekhovo, Kursk Oblast.
- Requirement: Verify the specific details and circumstances of alleged civilian injuries.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (local media, social media, human rights reports), IMINT (if available), HUMINT (local sources).
- Intelligence Gap 23: BDA for RUF Destruction of UAF Anti-Aircraft Truck.
- Requirement: Verify the specific type of UAF anti-aircraft gun and truck destroyed, the location of the engagement, and the extent of damage.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (detailed analysis of drone footage), OSINT (cross-referencing with UAF equipment lists, terrain analysis), TECHINT (if debris analysis possible).
- Intelligence Gap 24: Specifics of Ulyanovsk Airport Restrictions.
- Requirement: Determine the precise nature, duration, and stated reason for the temporary restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport, and assess if it is linked to combat operations or other factors.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian aviation authorities, local news, social media), IMINT (satellite imagery of airport activity).
- Intelligence Gap 25: Details of Russian Coal Industry Support.
- Requirement: Analyze the specific mechanisms of financial aid to coal companies, and assess its potential impact on Russian industrial capacity or ability to sustain war economy.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (analysis of Russian government financial reports, economic news, industry statements).
- Intelligence Gap 26: Impact of Domestic Drug Enforcement on Russian Military Effectiveness.
- Requirement: Assess whether the ongoing domestic crackdown on drug production and distribution within Russia (e.g., Khabarovsk Krai) is diverting significant law enforcement resources that could otherwise support military or internal security objectives related to the conflict.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian law enforcement reports, budget allocations, personnel transfers).
- Intelligence Gap 27: Impact of former Central Bank manager fraud case.
- Requirement: Assess the internal political and economic impact of this high-profile fraud case on Russian public sentiment and perceived government stability.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian independent and state media, financial analysis).
- Intelligence Gap 28: Assessment of new RUF KAB/KAR launches into Sumy Oblast.
- Requirement: Determine precise launch locations, target areas, and observed impact/BDA from recent KAB/KAR launches into Sumy Oblast.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), SIGINT (enemy launch data), HUMINT (local reports).
- Intelligence Gap 29: Source and impact of explosions/sirens in Saratov/Engels.
- Requirement: Determine the origin of the explosions (e.g., UAF strike, internal incident, AD activity) and assess any impact on military or civilian infrastructure.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery if available, local photography/video), OSINT (local media, social media, emergency service reports), SIGINT (if applicable).
- Intelligence Gap 30: BDA for UAF UAV strikes on Rostov Oblast.
- Requirement: Confirm the targets of UAF UAV strikes in Rostov Oblast (e.g., military infrastructure, air defense sites) and assess the extent of damage. Distinguish between legitimate strike and pyrotechnic footage.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, local photography/video), OSINT (local reports, RUF AD statements, independent media).
- Intelligence Gap 31: RUF Focus on "Dnipropetrovsk Direction (left flank)."
- Requirement: Verify if RUF is indeed shifting or increasing focus on the "Dnipropetropavsk direction (left flank)" as depicted by some RUF sources. Identify specific units involved and their objectives.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery of troop movements), SIGINT (communications intercepts), HUMINT (local reports, POW interrogations).
- Intelligence Gap 32: Impact of "Burger Index" increase on Russian domestic stability.
- Requirement: Analyze the broader economic implications of the reported 15% increase in the "Burger Index" for the average Russian consumer and assess its potential to impact public sentiment or support for the conflict.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (economic analysis from independent sources, Russian consumer surveys, social media monitoring).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 33: Specifics of Kazan Airport Restrictions.
- Requirement: Determine the precise nature, duration, and stated reason for the temporary restrictions at Kazan airport, and assess if it is linked to combat operations or other factors.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian aviation authorities, local news, social media), IMINT (satellite imagery of airport activity).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 34: Verification of Leopard Tank Status and Source.
- Requirement: Verify the claim of an "intact" Leopard tank captured in Kursk Oblast, and ascertain its operational status, variant, and the circumstances of its capture/evacuation.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (detailed video analysis, satellite imagery), TECHINT (if access to the tank is gained), OSINT (cross-referencing with UAF equipment losses, open-source military analysts).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 35: BDA on claimed UAF company destruction in Yunakivka.
- Requirement: Independently verify the claim of a UAF company being destroyed in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, including casualty figures and equipment losses.
- Collection Methods: HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports), IMINT (satellite imagery of the area), OSINT (cross-referencing with other sources).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 36: BDA on claimed destruction of UAV control points and Starlink stations.
- Requirement: Independently verify the RUF claims of destroying 56 UAV control points and 12 Starlink stations, including specific locations and BDA.
- Collection Methods: SIGINT (monitoring UAF network activity, traffic analysis), HUMINT (UAF unit reports), IMINT (if available).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 37: Assessment of RUF Combined Strike on Nadiya (Luhansk Oblast).
- Requirement: Independently verify the RUF claim of disrupting UAF rotation near Nadiya through a combined strike, including BDA on claimed UAF personnel and equipment losses.
- Collection Methods: HUMINT (UAF unit reports, local sources), IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), SIGINT (enemy BDA reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 38: Analysis of UAF International MaxxPro MRAP loss.
- Requirement: Confirm the cause of the MaxxPro MRAP loss (mine vs. accident), and assess the effectiveness of RUF FPV drones in finishing the vehicle.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (detailed video analysis), TECHINT (if debris is recoverable), HUMINT (UAF unit reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 39: Specifics of Nizhnekamsk Airport Restrictions.
- Requirement: Determine the precise nature, duration, and stated reason for the temporary restrictions at Nizhnekamsk airport, and assess if it is linked to combat operations or other factors.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian aviation authorities, local news, social media), IMINT (satellite imagery of airport activity).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 40: Analysis of Civilian Casualties in Polohy District.
- Requirement: Gather additional details on the circumstances of the 56-year-old man wounded in Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, to determine the nature of the attack and responsible party.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (local media, social media, human rights reports), HUMINT (local sources).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 41: Operational impact of high temperatures on RUF forces.
- Requirement: Assess the observed effects of extreme heat (+42°C) on RUF troop endurance, equipment performance, and medical support needs.
- Collection Methods: HUMINT (POW interrogations, battlefield observations), OSINT (monitoring RUF social media, internal reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 42: Impact of UAF Civilian Casualties in Germany.
- Requirement: Assess the broader impact of the murder of a Ukrainian woman and child in Germany on refugee communities, international relations, and Ukrainian public sentiment.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring international media, refugee community forums), HUMINT (interviews with displaced persons).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 43: BDA on RUF Drone Strikes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast.
- Requirement: Confirm the specific targets and extent of damage to agricultural enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities in Synelnykivskyi district.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), OSINT (local reports, social media).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 44: RUF Political Commentary and Historical Narratives.
- Requirement: Analyze the content and intent of public statements by figures like Sergey Stepashin regarding historical military events (e.g., 1999 Yugoslavia) and assess their potential to influence current perceptions of Russian military capabilities or geopolitical relations.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (analysis of state media transcripts, political commentary).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 45: Verifying RUF claims of taking positions near Bilohorivka, LNR.
- Requirement: Independently verify the extent of RUF control and any UAF losses in the Bilohorivka area.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports), OSINT (cross-referencing with other sources).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 46: BDA on RUF artillery strikes in Polohy direction.
- Requirement: Confirm the specific targets of 35th Army artillery in the Polohy direction and assess their effectiveness.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (drone reconnaissance), HUMINT (UAF unit reports), OSINT (local reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 47: Verification of RUF claims of advances along Mokri Yaly river.
- Requirement: Independently verify the extent of RUF territorial gains and control in the areas of Urozhayne, Novopavlovka, Novopokrovka, Novoselivka, and west of Vremivka.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports), OSINT (cross-referencing with geolocated footage).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 48: Verification of RUF claim of breakthrough to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via Mokri Yaly.
- Requirement: Independently verify the veracity and extent of RUF forces crossing the Mokri Yaly river into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, and their proximity to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports), SIGINT (enemy communications), OSINT (geolocated footage).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 49: Assessment of FSB claim of UAF chemical weapon cache.
- Requirement: Independently verify the existence and contents of the alleged chemical weapon cache, and assess the likelihood of this being a false flag operation.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (analysis of FSB statements, propaganda, international expert commentary), HUMINT (if available).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 50: Specifics of Izhevsk Airport Restrictions.
- Requirement: Determine the precise nature, duration, and stated reason for the temporary restrictions at Izhevsk airport, and assess if it is linked to combat operations or other factors.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian aviation authorities, local news, social media), IMINT (satellite imagery of airport activity).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 51: Impact of Russian Utility Tariff Increases on Public Sentiment.
- Requirement: Monitor Russian social media and independent media for public reaction to the increased utility tariffs, and assess any potential for widespread discontent or protest that could divert security resources.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (social media monitoring, independent polling, news analysis).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 52: Verification of Kyiv's Air Defense Deficit.
- Requirement: Independently assess the current air defense coverage and capabilities in Kyiv and surrounding areas to verify the claim of a "critical deficit."
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery of AD placements), SIGINT (AD radar activity), HUMINT (UAF AD personnel reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 53: Verification of RUF claims near Tyotkino, Sumy front.
- Requirement: Independently verify the extent of RUF advances, the specific units involved, and claimed UAF losses near Tyotkino, Sumy Oblast.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), HUMINT (local reports, UAF unit reports), OSINT (cross-referencing with geolocated footage).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 54: BDA on UAF drone attack on Izhevsk enterprise.
- Requirement: Conduct BDA to confirm the target and extent of damage caused by the UAF drone attack on the enterprise in Izhevsk.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, local photography/video), OSINT (local reports, RUF AD, industrial reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 55: BDA on UAF drone attacks in Crimea.
- Requirement: Conduct BDA to confirm the destruction or damage of Russian radar systems, air defense systems (Pantsir-S1), and Su-30 aircraft in Crimea by UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (satellite imagery, detailed video analysis), SIGINT (enemy BDA reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 56: Impact of RUF claim of UAF attack on civilians in Kurakhove.
- Requirement: Assess the veracity of the RUF claim of a UAF drone attack on a basement with civilians in Kurakhove, DNR, and its potential impact on local and international narratives.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (local reports, independent media, human rights organizations), HUMINT (if available).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 57: Details on the Ka-52 'Alligator' combat helicopter operations.
- Requirement: Assess the frequency, locations, and mission types of recent Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter sorties.
- Collection Methods: IMINT (drone footage, satellite imagery), SIGINT (enemy air traffic control, communications intercepts), HUMINT (battlefield reports).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 58: Impact of Russian Foreigner Biometrics Policy.
- Requirement: Assess the practical implications of disconnecting mobile services for foreigners not providing biometrics from July 1st, including potential impact on foreign labor, economic activity, and security.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (monitoring Russian government statements, news, social media from affected communities).
- NEW Intelligence Gap 59: Verification of civilian casualties in Polohy district.
- Requirement: Verify the number and condition of the two wounded individuals reported in the Polohy district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Collection Methods: OSINT (local reports, humanitarian organizations), HUMINT (local sources).
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
- Immediate Defensive Reinforcement and Fire Support (Pokrovsk/Toretsk/Chasiv Yar/Mokri Yaly/Dnipropetrovsk Border/Sumy Front): Allocate additional artillery and counter-battery radar assets to the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Prioritize resupply of UAF units currently repelling high-intensity assaults. Immediately reinforce defensive positions on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar to establish a firm line of defense. Prioritize ISR assets to identify and target high-value Russian assets, specifically TOS-1A systems and glide bomb release points around Chasiv Yar. Develop and implement immediate counter-tactics for RUF motorcycle and UGV assaults. Provide immediate fire support and defensive reinforcements to UAF units under pressure along the Mokri Yaly river. Immediately verify and, if confirmed, reinforce defensive lines and prepare counter-attack options against the claimed RUF breakthrough towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via Mokri Yaly. Reinforce defenses on the Sumy front, particularly near Tyotkino, and ensure robust fire support to repel claimed RUF ground assaults. Rationale: UAF General Staff confirms high assault rates and heavy fighting; immediate fire support and defensive reinforcement are critical to prevent RUF breakthroughs. New RUF tactics require rapid UAF adaptation. Consistent RUF advances along Mokri Yaly and the new, unverified claim of breakthrough indicate a persistent, escalating threat needing urgent reinforcement. New RUF claims of ground advances on the Sumy front require immediate defensive action.
- Adaptive Air Defense Posture (All Fronts, especially Sumy/Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Kyiv/Central Ukraine): Deploy mobile short-range air defense systems to protect key military administrative centers and logistics hubs in rear areas, particularly in Dnipropetropavsk, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts, to counter RUF's pattern of targeting TCCs and other critical infrastructure. Immediately assess and enhance air defense coverage in Sumy Oblast due to new KAB/KAR launch reports and in Kharkiv/Donetsk Oblast due to renewed UAV threats. Extend this focus to Dnipropetropavsk Oblast due to new UAV threat warnings and confirmed strikes on agricultural targets and Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to confirmed Shahed strikes on industrial/residential areas. Urgently reassess and reinforce Kyiv's air defense capabilities based on recent expert warnings. Deploy AD assets to protect Kropyvnytskyi and Huliaipole against ballistic missile threats. Prioritize training for UAF AD crews on new RUF Shahed tactics. Accelerate research and development into mass production and deployment of new interceptor technologies. Rationale: RUF demonstrates consistent intent to hit rear-area targets. New Shahed tactics demand AD adaptation, and scaling new interceptors is a long-term solution. New civilian casualties in Polohy district, 4 strikes in Zaporizhzhia, KABs into Sumy/UAV threat to Kharkiv/Donetsk/Dnipropetropavsk underscore ongoing aerial threat to civilian areas and military targets, including new targeting of agricultural and industrial infrastructure. The warning about Kyiv's AD deficit is critical and requires immediate action. Ballistic threats require immediate AD response.
- Counter-UAV/Anti-UAV and EW Measures (Siversk/Kharkiv/Sumy/Chasiv Yar/Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk): Immediately supply additional FPV drone assets, counter-drone, and mobile EW systems to UAF units in the Siversk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chasiv Yar, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk sectors. Prioritize deploying mobile friendly EW teams to the Chasiv Yar sector to actively identify, locate, and counter Russian drone reconnaissance and C2 nodes. Intensify efforts to understand and counter alleged new RUF anti-drone "combat beam" systems and their kinetic anti-drone capabilities. Prioritize protection of Starlink terminals and development of alternative communication methods. Rationale: RUF's adaptation to overwhelming UAF with drones and pervasive EW requires an immediate counter-response. Persistent drone threats against Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk require immediate counter-measures. RUF claims of destroying UAF UAV CPs and Starlink terminals highlight a critical vulnerability requiring immediate mitigation. RUF's "frontline laboratories" indicate ongoing efforts to improve their counter-UAV capabilities, necessitating reciprocal UAF adaptation. The "anti-drone pose" video indicates psychological impact on RUF soldiers, which UAF can exploit with continued drone operations.
- ISR Prioritization (Zaporizhzhia/Belgorod/Maritime/Novopavlivka/Volgograd/Crimea/Dachne/Donetsk/Luhansk/Polohy/Ulyanovsk/Kazan/Nizhnekamsk/Izhevsk/Saratov/Engels/Rostov/Dnipropetrovsk Direction/Kursk/Bilohorivka/Mokri Yaly/Kyiv AD/Tyotkino/Kurakhove): Re-task high-value ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT) to intensively monitor the Zaporizhzhia axis for signs of a large-scale RUF offensive build-up involving Kadyrovite units. Simultaneously, maintain ISR focus on RUF second-echelon forces in Belgorod Oblast. Increase maritime surveillance in the Black and Caspian Seas to monitor threats to shipping. Maintain high vigilance on the Novopavlivka direction, especially along the Mokri Yaly river, and urgently verify claims of breakthrough towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Continue BDA on the Volgograd airfield strike. Prioritize ISR on Crimea and Sevastopol, and conduct BDA on recent UAF drone attacks against military targets. Prioritize verifying RUF claims of "liberation" in Dachne, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Conduct thorough BDA on the UAF strike in Donetsk and Yasynuvata. Conduct thorough BDA on the UAF drone attack on Luhansk. Conduct immediate and thorough BDA for the 4 confirmed strikes on Zaporizhzhia and the casualty in Polohy district, and the new drone strikes on agricultural enterprises and industrial/residential areas in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhia. Monitor new reports of two wounded in Polohy district for further details. Investigate temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk, Kazan, Izhevsk, and Nizhnekamsk airports and civilian reports of explosions/sirens in Saratov/Engels for any links to military activity. Conduct BDA on UAF UAV activity in Rostov Oblast to confirm targets and effectiveness. Conduct BDA on UAF drone attack on Izhevsk military enterprise. Prioritize verification of alleged RUF activity and claimed focus on the "Dnipropetropavsk direction (left flank)". Verify the claim of the captured Leopard tank in Kursk, and assess its operational status. Conduct BDA on RUF claims of destroying a UAF company in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, and claimed destruction of UAV CPs/Starlink stations, and disruption of UAF rotation near Nadiya. Analyze the loss of the UAF MaxxPro MRAP. Prioritize verification of RUF claims of pushing UAF out of positions near Bilohorivka. Urgently conduct ISR to verify the extent of Kyiv's air defense deficit and identify any vulnerabilities. Verify RUF claims of storming positions near Tyotkino, Sumy front. Investigate RUF claims of UAF drones attacking civilians in a Kurakhove basement. Monitor Ka-52 combat helicopter operations. Rationale: Early warning of a major MDCOA offensive is paramount. Maritime threats require monitoring. UAF deep strikes require follow-up BDA. New claimed territorial gains and confirmed strikes necessitate immediate verification. Unexplained flight restrictions and explosions may indicate RUF air activity, internal incidents, or UAF deep strikes. Monitoring RUF internal channels for shifts in operational focus is critical. Verification of enemy claims and BDA for both friendly and enemy losses is crucial for accurate intelligence and tactical adaptation. Kyiv's AD status is a critical national security concern. New RUF claims on the Sumy front and civilian targets require immediate verification to counter propaganda and inform operations.
- Information Operations Counter-Narrative and Proactive Messaging: Develop and disseminate robust counter-narratives to RUF's escalating IO against Azerbaijan and other regional partners, emphasizing Russia's aggressive tactics. Actively highlight internal Russian dissent and corruption, including the recent high-profile fraud case of the former Central Bank manager and the rising utility tariffs. Proactively address narratives of Ukrainian fatigue or calls for ceasefire, reinforcing UAF resolve. Publicly refute false narratives about UAF casualties and forced mobilization, and counter RUF claims of destroying UAF units and Western equipment with verified information. Highlight continued international support, the UN's finding on Olenivka, and US Congressional efforts for child repatriation. Actively counter any misleading RUF reports about UAF military units or the effectiveness of Western aid, including narratives about "meat assaults." Prepare messaging to address Russian Telegram outages. Highlight the successful return of Ukrainian children from occupied territories. Swiftly and transparently investigate allegations of UAF-caused civilian casualties in border regions. Actively publicize SBU's actions against individuals like Nikita Mikhalkov as part of a sovereign legal response. Emphasize the resilience of Ukrainian civilians and communal services in the face of persistent RUF attacks. Proactively leverage international diplomatic statements supporting peace and negotiations, such as Keith Kellogg's, to reinforce external pressure on Russia. Counter RUF historical propaganda (e.g., FSB documents on "spies") by highlighting historical facts and refuting revisionist narratives. Immediately prepare robust messaging to counter potential RUF false flag operations, especially any claims involving chemical weapons or UAF targeting of civilians (e.g., Kurakhove basement), pre-emptively exposing such fabrications. Rationale: RUF's aggressive IO aims to isolate Ukraine. Countering this is crucial for maintaining international support. Internal narratives must be managed to maintain morale and national unity. Pre-emptive messaging against false flags is critical.
- Enhance Cross-Border Defense: Strengthen UAF defensive lines and fire planning along the Sumy/Kharkiv border, including pre-planned counter-battery fire missions, to deter RUF ground probes and limit incursions. Actively counter RUF KAB/KAR launches into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts through enhanced AD and counter-air operations. Rationale: RUF maintains the capability and intent for cross-border incursions. Persistent aerial bombardment requires proactive AD and counter-air measures.
- Monitor Crimean Bridge Traffic: Closely monitor traffic volume and types of vehicles crossing the Crimean Bridge for any unusual increases that could indicate heightened military or logistical activity. Rationale: Increased traffic on this critical logistical artery could signal RUF preparations for operations in southern Ukraine.
