Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF claims include the capture of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, and breakthroughs on the outskirts of Pokrovsk towards Belhiyka, with the T0406 highway reportedly under RUF fire control. RUF also claims entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), with RUF MoD officially confirming "liberation" of Chervona Zirka, reinforced by new RUF video. RUF MoD and WarGonzo now claim "liberation" of Novoukrainka in DPR, with "Otvazhnye" units claiming to have occupied it on the border of DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours, with continued clashes near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Koptyeve, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk, including an "unsuccessful attack by motorcyclists." Interrogation of a captured Chinese mercenary from RUF's 102nd Regiment, 150th Division, near Toretsk, is confirmed. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Yablunivka. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near", and UAF General Staff confirms clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora. RUF "WarGonzo" posts "special report" on 4th Brigade operations towards Konstantinovka and Dyleevka, showing ground movement, tactical discussions, and drone footage. RUF military expert Marochko states the liberation of Chervona Zirka allows RUF to create a bridgehead for advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (RUF-aligned analytical judgment). RUF "Два майора" posts a video of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount operating on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, showing it moving through damaged urban terrain and operating its weapons system. It appears to have mine-carrying capacity. This indicates RUF is deploying novel robotic platforms in this key sector. RUF "Народная милиция ДНР" posts video claiming "Destruction of a Ukrainian Armed Forces militant by a 132nd Brigade UAV crew" showing an FPV drone strike on a vehicle. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts photo/video from Velyka Novosilka - Chervona Zirka area, showing drone footage of damaged buildings with Russian flags, suggesting recent RUF presence/control. Air Force of AFU reports RUF tactical aviation launching KABs on Donetsk Oblast. RUF "Fighterbomber" posts thermal/night vision aerial footage of an explosion in a wooded area, claiming "Today the best one neatly worked with four UMPK FAB-500-PD on a Ukrainian Armed Forces strongpoint." RUF "Воин DV" posts video claiming "Lair of khokhols was previously blown up by IED, comparable in power to an anti-tank mine." RUF "Kotsnews" reports "Russian army liberated Chervona Zirka." RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts video claiming "Night aerial battles in the sky on the western borders of the DPR. Heavy enemy drones tried to attack our firing positions, but FPV drone crews, on constant duty, promptly reacted to approaching air targets. All shot down." UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts video showing two Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian drones on the Donetsk direction. RUF "Z комитет + карта СВО" posts map images with the caption "Grigorovka," implying RUF presence or operations in that area. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video titled "11th Guards Army of the Air Force and Air Defense continues to iron the enemy in the offensive zone of the 'Vostok' group of forces. This time, the boys in the area of Voskresenka got hit." RUF "Два майора" posts drone footage on the Pokrovsk direction, showing explosions and smoke, indicating ongoing intense combat. RUF "Z комитет + карта СВО" posts new tactical map images for the Toretsk and Konstantinovskoye directions, showing updated control zones and fortifications, particularly near Toretsk. UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows UAF FPV drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist. Multiple UAF photo messages show results of an unsuccessful attack by RUF motorcyclists near Pokrovsk. RUF "MoD Russia" video shows drone footage of strikes on targets and Russian personnel displaying flag in a village, confirming Chervona Zirka under Russian control. RUF "Два майора" video shows individuals in a room with many drones, followed by aerial reconnaissance footage of a damaged urban environment, and a "nest of wounded" in a trench. RUF "Басурин о главном" analyzes military situation, mentions liberation of settlements, progress of Russian forces, strategic importance of high ground. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows Ukrainian defenders capturing a group of Russian "businessmen" from the 132nd Gorlovka Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Toretsk direction. RUF "Kotsnews" video shows military operations in Vovchansk. RUF "Воин DV" claims FPV operator from 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade destroyed enemy resupply/rotation near Oktyabrskoye. RUF "Два майора" video shows aerial view of explosions in a village, captioned "Zaporozhye front, Belogorye, Pologovsky district." UAF "STERNENKO" video shows 55th Separate Artillery Brigade (55 OABr) striking RUF targets on the Pokrovsk axis. UAF "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" video claims SBU special forces destroying a Russian EW system (R-934) and other targets. RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims destruction of enemy UAV control point using LMUR. RUF "Colonelcassad" photos claim RUF advance near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, and Chasiv Yar, with tactical map overlays. RUF "Colonelcassad" photos show severe destruction in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk direction), claiming the front is 2km away and battles are near Lysovka, Zverevo, and Belhiyka. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" claims UAF eliminated a Russian UAV command post on the Pokrovsk direction, destroying munitions and technical equipment. Colonelcassad posts an analytical map illustrating RUF efforts to create a "northern pincer" to envelop the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) urban agglomeration. STERNENKO posts a video showing the destruction of a Russian MT-LB armored personnel carrier. TASS reports RUF forces control all lowlands in Serebryanka, DPR, with UAF remaining on high ground. Colonelcassad posts video of a destroyed or heavily damaged vehicle, likely a military truck or personnel carrier, with the text overlay 'ДНЕПРОВСКИЙ РУБЕЖ' (Dnieper Frontier). TASS reports "Артиллеристы группировки "Восток" уничтожили укрытия ВСУ с пехотой, оборудованные в лесных массивах." RUF "Colonelcassad" posts photos of various small, possibly improvised, captured UAF drone munitions ("Трофейные «сбросы»"). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows aerial surveillance footage of a forested area, identified as a "Position of Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU)," with an explosion and smoke, from "44th Army Corps," "Troop grouping 'Sever'." RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows a Russian sapper discussing mine-clearing, implying UAF mining efforts. RUF "Воин DV" claims "Операторы БЛА 14 гвардейской бригады специального назначения не забывают про важность превосходства в воздухе и регулярно ведут работу по уничтожению дронов противника на Шахтёрском направлении." RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims successful strikes by specific units (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, 30th Separate SpN Company, 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade) from the "Vostok" Group of Forces, targeting the area of Karl Marx (also known as Myrny). RUF "Воин DV" claims UAF has lost the area between the Mokri Yaly and Vovcha rivers following the "liberation" of Chervona Zirka by the 36th Guards Brigade, 29th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces. RUF "Два майора" video message indicating a "collection/fundraising" for the Pokrovsk direction. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts 9 photo messages of maps illustrating RUF claimed territorial changes. RUF "Воин DV" claims "Оператор БЛА 37 гвардейской мотострелковой бригады 36 армии не только уничтожил машину ВСУ, гружёную fpv-дронами, но и обратил в бегство бдительного хлопчика, который был готов с низкого старта покинуть опасную зону." UAF "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" video and caption describe numerous uncollected RUF bodies, implying high RUF casualties. RUF "Народная милиция ДНР" video claims "Уничтожение личного состава ВСУ и гаубицы М46 силами 68 орб." UAF "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" video shows destroyed RUF equipment and personnel likely from drone strikes in Zaporizhzhia, reinforcing UAF's effective drone warfare. ASTRA reports a resident of occupied Makiivka requested protection from a former partner, a RUF serviceman, who allegedly threatened her life. RUF 'Kotsnews' claims "Russian army liberated Novoukrainka." New RUF claims from 'Народная милиция ДНР' show drone footage of what is claimed to be the destruction of a 'Bradley' and 'MaxxPro' near Petrovske, further implying RUF offensive pressure in this area. A video from STERNENKO shows an armored vehicle, likely a tank or APC, on a road, impacted by artillery or explosives, with a motorcycle visible near the scene, indicating ongoing combat engagements. RUF "Воин DV" video claims 11th Guards Army VVS and PVO worked on a UAF strongpoint in the Maliyivka area, with 57th and 60th Motorized Rifle Brigades of 5th Army "Vostok" Group of Forces advancing and claiming significant progress in the past day. New RUF FPV footage from 'Colonelcassad' depicts successful strikes on an MT-LB, a building, a vehicle, and an observation post/shelter, reinforcing RUF's continued reliance on drones for tactical strikes. 'ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦' provides video of 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade strike drone crews destroying RUF equipment, facilities, and personnel. UAF 'РБК-Україна' reports GUR fighters ambushed and "mowed down" an enemy motor group in a forested area of Kharkiv Oblast. This is a UAF tactical success against RUF mobility. 'ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' shows drone reconnaissance footage from the Phoenix unit (State Border Guard Service of Ukraine) in Kharkiv Oblast, identifying and destroying an enemy BMP and checkpoint. New intelligence indicates a damaged military vehicle (likely a truck with anti-drone netting/camouflage) was struck by a drone from UAF 81st Airmobile Brigade's "Sova" unit. This "Frankentank" with rebar cage was hit by drones from the 81st Airmobile Brigade's "Sova" unit. 'Оперативний ЗСУ' video of a field littered with Russian bodies, reinforcing high RUF casualties and UAF defensive effectiveness on the Kharkiv axis. 'Два майора' video showing a damaged Bradley Fighting Vehicle being towed, indicating RUF is recovering damaged Western equipment, likely for intelligence or propaganda purposes. 'Colonelcassad' video showing a drone strike on a building, indicating ongoing RUF use of tactical drones for kinetic strikes. NEW: '✙DeepState✙🇺🇦' video shows a successful FPV drone strike by the 413th Separate Battalion of Special Operations "Raid" against a North Korean-made M1991 MLRS system near Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in its destruction. NEW: 'Оперативний ЗСУ' posts a video showing a drone strike on a small structure or emplacement, described as likely a dugout or fortified position, with scattered debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claims and offensive tempo; MEDIUM - on verified RUF control of all claimed areas; HIGH - on UAF defensive posture and attrition; LOW - on veracity of new RUF territorial claims like Novoukrainka and Petrovske; HIGH - on RUF deployment of UGV and drone warfare; HIGH - on UAF anti-armor and counter-UAV C2 success; HIGH - on continued intense combat; HIGH - on 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade drone successes; HIGH - on UAF GUR ambush of RUF motor group; HIGH - on UAF Phoenix drone unit's effectiveness in Kharkiv; HIGH - on UAF 81st Airmobile Brigade's "Sova" unit drone strike success; HIGH - on high RUF casualties in Kharkiv; HIGH - on RUF recovery of damaged UAF equipment; HIGH - on RUF tactical drone strikes; HIGH - on UAF FPV drone strike against NK MLRS; HIGH - on UAF drone strike on RUF position).
Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka). RUF claims continue regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR." RUF MoD Russia video shows servicemen of a separate combat engineer battalion (Zapad Group of Forces) continuing demining roads in the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports Russian forces are clearing Petrovske, with approximately one kilometer remaining to reach the LNR border. A RUF 'Mash na Donbasse' video message claims that UAF attacked Vakhrusheve in LNR, showing surveillance footage with flashes of light. NEW: RUF 'Рыбарь' reports on a "New Malian Campaign," suggesting continued global operations rather than direct Luhansk news, but is likely a placeholder for general RUF updates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF defensive success; MEDIUM - on RUF claims of control; LOW - on immediate relevance of Mali campaign to Luhansk).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Death toll from prior missile attack on Dnipro increased to 22 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Overnight, RUF attacked Nikopol district (Marganetska and Pokrovska communities) with heavy artillery and FPV drones; 12 RUF UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The head of Kryvyi Rih military administration reports the situation is under control. UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Berezove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" (Serhiy Lysak, Dnipropropetrovsk OVA Head) confirmed an explosion in a Dnipro suburb was UAF air defense. RUF "Alex Parker Returns" claims Dnipropetrovsk was attacked with "jet iron" (likely KABs) for the first first time, traveling over 100km, which UAF Air Force and "Оперативний ЗСУ" deny as a strike on Dnipro. RUF "Alex Parker Returns" claims "Air Defense Titans announced that they were able to shoot down the new cast iron over Dnipropetropavsk. Everything is fine." UAF Air Force reports a threat of aviation munitions application for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports enemy Shahed UAVs are in the sky over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with one UAV inbound to Dnipro. "Николаевский Ванёк" confirmed one UAV inbound to Dnipro and reported three additional UAVs inbound to Samara/Dnipro. UAF "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a UAV from Cherkasy Oblast inbound to Kirovohrad Oblast. RUF "Fighterbomber" implies successful arrival of an aviation munition in Dnipro. UAF "РБК-Україна" photo messages report RUF attacked an evacuation bus with a "drone-bomber" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing damage including broken glass inside the bus. A tragic report confirms a casualty from Malomykhailivska community. RUF is dropping propaganda leaflets from drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force has reported missile danger for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. '🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)' reports multiple RUF attacks on Nikopol with drones and artillery, damaging infrastructure but with no new casualties. Air raid alert concluded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and UAF AD success; HIGH - on civilian impact and RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure/transport; MEDIUM - on RUF claims of new KAB range; HIGH - on RUF use of psychological operations/leaflet drops; HIGH - on immediate missile threat; HIGH - on continued RUF attacks on Nikopol; HIGH - on alert conclusion).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states the advance of Russian troops in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. UAF General Staff reports repelling 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. RUF sources, however, continue to claim offensive operations and significant advances (up to 14 km from the border, and pushing UAF "elite" back from Yunakivka), including a new TASS claim of destroying a company of UAF soldiers near Yablonovka. RUF is conducting KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast, with a UAV inbound to Sumy city, others in western Sumy Oblast, and a group in eastern Sumy Oblast moving north, and a UAV from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. ASTRA reports a power substation burning after a UAV attack in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports seven aircraft-type UAVs, including two jets, destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. UAF General Staff confirms successful strikes on RUF ammunition depots in Bryansk Oblast and GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk on Constitution Day. Lgov (Kursk Oblast) is canceling bus routes due to drivers resigning over shelling. RUF "Два майора" posts video showing drone footage of vehicles being targeted and destroyed near Pysarivka and Khoten on the Sumy direction. RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims "Syrsky's darlings" are being defeated in Sumy Oblast. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video claims a Special Operations Forces (SSO) reconnaissance and sabotage group destroyed several Russian military personnel and captured one in the Russian border area north of Sumy. RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims a Swedish Strv 122A (Leopard 2A5S) tank was hit by "fiber-optic drones" operated by the "Tigers" UAV unit of the Ussuri Brigade in Sumy Oblast. RUF "Два майора" video message with caption "ГРАНИЦА ЗАКРЫТА НА ЗАМОК Космодесантом и ВКС!" claims successful RUF air and possibly special forces operations along the border. New UAF reports indicate that RUF attacked Lebedyn in Sumy Oblast with three UAVs, damaging 2 administrative buildings and 12 private residences, with 2 casualties. UAF Air Force is currently reporting missile danger for Sumy Oblast. 'ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' reports Russian army shelled the suburbs of Sumy Oblast center with artillery. UAF Air Force is tracking an enemy reconnaissance UAV over Sumy Oblast, indicating ongoing RUF ISR activity. RUF is also confirmed to be launching KABs into Sumy Oblast, maintaining fire pressure. RUF 'Alex Parker Returns' claims that UAF reports indicate RUF forces can now reach the outskirts of Sumy with tube artillery, with RUF forces approximately 16km from the city. This implies RUF is capable of direct artillery engagement with the city but is refraining due to a "political decision." STERNENKO posts video showing Mad Bears battalion (225th Separate Assault Regiment) operating drones to monitor skies in Sumy Oblast, reinforcing UAF counter-drone efforts. NEW: RUF 'Операция Z' (from Военкоры Русской Весны) claims Russian forces have advanced and can now reach the outskirts of Sumy with tube artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF stabilization; MEDIUM - on conflicting RUF claims of advances; HIGH - on cross-border activity and civilian impact in Russia; HIGH - on UAF SSO cross-border success; MEDIUM - on claimed Leopard 2A5S loss; HIGH - on RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure in Sumy Oblast; HIGH - on immediate missile threat; HIGH - on new civilian casualties; HIGH - on RUF aerial reconnaissance and KAB strikes; MEDIUM - on RUF claims of artillery range on Sumy city; HIGH - on UAF counter-drone operations in Sumy; HIGH - on RUF claims of tube artillery range on Sumy).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman) and ground clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Stroyivka and towards Kutkivka, and Kupyansk direction near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zelenyi Hai. UAF General Staff confirms RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman. TASS reports attempts by UAF to cross the Vovcha River in Vovchansk were repelled with losses. An RUF Molniya UAV struck Kharkiv, hitting a multi-story building. A RUF UAV also struck a civilian vehicle near Prykolotne. Two children injured due to an explosion in Stavysche, Shevchenkivska Hromada (likely UXO/mine). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video shows TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems operating in Vovchansk, causing severe urban destruction. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports an explosion in Kharkiv and a UAV shot down over Kharkiv. Oleg Synyehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, reports a fire in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv due. to falling UAV debris and one casualty. UAF "РБК-Україна" later clarifies no direct hits in Kharkiv, only suburbs. Head of Kharkiv OVA, Oleg Synyehubov, posts video showing expansion of safe shelters in educational institutions, specifically Chuguyiv Lyceum No. 2, damaged in July 2022 and now being equipped with a shelter for 450 people. UAF Air Force is currently reporting missile danger for Kharkiv Oblast. 'РБК-Україна' reports GUR fighters ambushed and "mowed down" an enemy motor group in a forested area of Kharkiv Oblast. 'ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' shows drone reconnaissance footage from the Phoenix unit (State Border Guard Service of Ukraine) in Kharkiv Oblast, identifying and destroying an enemy BMP and checkpoint. New intelligence indicates the Northern Eagle Battalion of the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade is conducting effective FPV drone strikes in the Kharkiv direction, targeting RUF equipment and personnel. UAF Air Force reports missile danger for Kharkiv Oblast. RUF 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' claims Russian strikes have transformed a previously safe part of Ukraine into a non-safe zone, likely referencing Kharkiv or other recently attacked regions, for propaganda purposes. NEW: UAF 'РБК-Україна' reports a man found an unexploded Molniya-2 drone in his garden in Kharkiv. NEW: ASTRA reports on the consequences of Russian shelling in Kharkiv Oblast, with one person killed and another wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on continued heavy combat in Vovchansk; HIGH - on civilian impact and RUF targeting of civilian vehicles; HIGH - on RUF Molniya UAV strike; HIGH - on continued TOS-1A use; HIGH - on civilian resilience and reconstruction efforts; HIGH - on immediate missile threat; HIGH - on GUR ambush; HIGH - on Phoenix unit's drone effectiveness; HIGH - on Northern Eagle Battalion's FPV drone effectiveness; HIGH - on immediate missile threat; HIGH - on RUF propaganda regarding "unsafe zones"; HIGH - on unexploded Molniya-2 drone find; HIGH - on new civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. New intelligence from Colonelcassad claims elements of the 247th Air Assault Regiment (247th DShP) advanced on the Zaporizhzhia direction near the Yanchekrak River in the Kamyanske area, planting a Russian flag on a road sign. UAF Air Force is reporting a threat of aviation munitions application for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske, and near Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). UAF confirms a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia damaged a production facility. RUF attacked Stepnohirsk with combined arms (KABs, MLRS, artillery, drones), causing extensive damage to civilian buildings. A 16-year-old girl was wounded by a RUF FPV drone strike in Zaporizhzhia district. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launching KABs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF "Воин DV" video claims fire damage to enemy strongpoints with personnel near Chervone on the Huliaipole direction by 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army. RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims rocket strike on UAF UAV hangars in Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF "Воин DV" video shows drone attacks on structures identified as enemy shelters using FPV drones with thermobaric and incendiary munitions. UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes in Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Orikhiv, and Kamyanske. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 70-year-old woman died in Stepnohirsk due to an early morning enemy attack. UAF 'РБК-Україна' reports that the enemy is trying to capture a bridgehead in Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia, citing the Defense Forces. UAF 'Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"' provides a video from occupied Berdiansk showing children walking with a Russian flag, which could imply a shift in demographic control or an information operation. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is reporting on ongoing logistical support to the front, including power generators, Starlink terminals, and drones, suggesting sustained Ukrainian defensive posture and resupply efforts in the sector. Olexandr Vilkul has also posted photo messages detailing ongoing systemic aid to the front, including vehicles, medical supplies, power equipment, and drones, reinforcing sustained logistical support for UAF units, likely in the Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia directions. New intelligence indicates the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been concluded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on ongoing shelling and RUF attacks; MEDIUM - on RUF claims of breakthrough; HIGH - on civilian impact; HIGH - on RUF targeting of UAF drone infrastructure and combined arms attacks; HIGH - on new civilian fatality; HIGH - on propaganda efforts in occupied territories; HIGH - on UAF logistical sustainment and active defense in Zaporizhzhia; HIGH - on continued systemic aid from military administrations; HIGH - on RUF aviation munitions threat; HIGH - on alert conclusion).
Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF claims UAF is setting forest fires for tactical purposes. UAF General Staff reports repelling 2 Russian army assaults. UAF "Сили оборони Півдня України" posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" claims "Destruction of occupiers in their lair on the left bank of our Kherson region with #GBU62 from MiG-29 crew." RUF "Два майора" posts a video which appears to show drone footage from a reconnaissance drone. The video includes a phone number suggesting a recruitment or contact point, and later a graphic with military emblems and a Telegram channel link, likely promoting a military unit. The grainy footage suggests it is either older or captured under challenging conditions. The caption "Херсонское направление" (Kherson direction) indicates operational focus. RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims destruction of a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 34th Separate Brigade of the Naval Infantry (OBRBO VSU) in Kherson using an X-35 missile. TASS claims "Безэкипажные катера ВСУ перестали подходить к Крыму ближе дистанции 30 км." UAF 'Sily Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny' videos show Ukrainian soldiers from the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade effectively countering enemy FPV drones with anti-drone rifles and EW measures. 'Оперативний ЗСУ' reports that RUF shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing one man and wounding another. RUF 'Два майора' has posted another video with aerial footage for the Kherson direction, featuring a recruitment phone number, further indicating RUF's ongoing efforts to promote their military units and operations in the sector. TASS reports a wildfire has increased to 5 hectares in Alushta, Crimea, and two Mi-8 helicopters from Russian EMERCOM are involved in extinguishing it. This may suggest RUF's civilian resources are being diverted for such emergencies, or potentially an environmental impact from military activities. 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' posted photo messages with satellite imagery and tactical overlays for the Kherson direction. While a detailed analysis of the imagery itself is outside the scope, the context of the post implies ongoing RUF operations and intelligence gathering in the sector. ASTRA reports three drone attacks in Kherson since noon, with casualties and fatalities. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny confirms Russian shelling of civilian objects in Southern Ukraine, causing deaths and injuries, consistent with ASTRA's report. NEW: RUF 'Colonelcassad' posts a video claiming the destruction of three Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) by a Su-30 aircraft using an X-31 missile and Lancet loitering munitions in the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on positional fighting; HIGH - on UAF deep strikes on RUF positions in occupied Kherson; HIGH - on RUF claims of countering UAF naval drones; HIGH - on UAF counter-UAV measures; HIGH - on new civilian casualties; HIGH - on RUF channel promoting military unit/operations; HIGH - on continued RUF recruitment/promotion activities in Kherson; HIGH - on wildfire and EMERCOM response in Crimea, implying resource allocation; HIGH - on RUF operational focus and intelligence gathering in Kherson; HIGH - on drone attacks and civilian casualties in Kherson; HIGH - on RUF claim of USV destruction).
Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. 14 Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD in the Southern operational zone. A RUF reconnaissance UAV was detected in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast. Localized street shooting reported in Odesa's Soborna Square, with one casualty. Colonelcassad video shows a physical altercation in Odesa related to "man-catchers" (military enlistment officers) and a woman intervening, indicating social tension. UAF "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" video shows a UAF Mi-8 army aviation helicopter successfully engaging a Shahed drone. STERNENKO reports on a situation involving Odesa Mayor Trukhanov and a military serviceman, with Trukhanov (claimed to be a Russian citizen) questioning the serviceman why he's not "in the trench." New intelligence from STERNENKO reports Azerbaijan has banned all Russian cultural events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and civilian casualties; HIGH - on UAF AD effectiveness against drones; HIGH - on social tensions regarding mobilization; HIGH - on Azerbaijani diplomatic action).
Mykolaiv Oblast: Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders: 3 cluster, 3 HE-frag) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure and a Shahed hitting an infrastructure object. UAF AD reported multiple successful UAV interceptions ("minus 4," "another minus 4"). Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces confirmed a massed missile strike on Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia. RUF 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' claims Russian forces destroyed Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and UAF AD effectiveness; HIGH - on civilian impact; LOW - on RUF claim of Kulbakino destruction).
Kyiv Oblast: The massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles passing Slavutych towards Kyiv, and a UAV over Kyiv/Obolon. UAF AD was operating effectively, with alerts now concluded. Two UAF Air Force pilots, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko and Oleksiy "Moonfish" Mes, were killed overnight while repelling the massed attack, with RUF claiming Ustymenko's F-16 was shot down. Civilians sheltered in Kyiv metro. UAF General Staff confirmed a massed missile-drone attack with over 500 air targets launched and 475 targets neutralized, with an additional 226 suppressed by EW. KMVA also confirmed the widespread RUF attacks. RUF 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' claims a NATO F-16 fighter jet was shot down tonight, likely referring to the reported loss of Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko. RUF 'Басурин о главном' posts an image claiming "UAF Air Force lost another F-16." This is likely part of the ongoing RUF information campaign regarding the reported UAF pilot losses. 'Оперативний ЗСУ' confirms President Zelenskyy posthumously awarded the title Hero of Ukraine with the Order of the Golden Star to F-16 pilot Maksym Ustymenko, killed last night. STERNENKO, ASTRA, Air Force of Armed Forces of Ukraine, and KMVA all confirm Zelenskyy's posthumous award to Ustymenko. NEW: UAF 'Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"' confirms Colonel Maksym Ustymenko posthumously received Hero of Ukraine. RUF 'Alex Parker Returns' propagates a narrative questioning why the F-16 pilot was made a hero instead of the Patriot AD crew, implying that the F-16 was shot down by friendly fire. RUF 'Fighterbomber' propagates a narrative suggesting "every pilot of Ukraine" will be a hero, implying high UAF pilot losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and UAF AD effectiveness; HIGH - on critical UAF personnel losses; HIGH - on scale of RUF mass attack and UAF AD success rate; HIGH - on presidential award confirming pilot loss; HIGH - on RUF IO exploiting UAF pilot losses).
Cherkasy Oblast: RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to three nine-story buildings and a college. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. UAF 'ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' and 'Оперативний ЗСУ' provide photo messages of a crater from a Russian missile strike in a residential area of Smila, Cherkasy Oblast, reinforcing civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and civilian impact).
Ternopil Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a Shahed UAV inbound to Ternopil city and a group of cruise missiles in Ternopil Oblast heading west. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported two more Shahed UAVs on Ternopil and several cruise missiles entered Ternopil Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks).
Lviv Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a UAV inbound towards Lviv city, with air defense working. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported two Shaheds on course for Lviv and three Shaheds on course for Mykolaiv (Lviv Oblast). RUF "НгП раZVедка" directly expressed intent to strike Lviv. UAF Air Force reports a cruise missile on Lviv Oblast, with missiles passing Burshtyn towards Stryi/Drohobych, and some turning towards Lviv. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported "minus" on missiles on Lviv and Drohobych. РБК-Україна reports RUF attacked critical infrastructure in Lviv Oblast with drones and cruise missiles, specifically Drohobych district. UAF 'РБК-Україна' urges residents of Drohobych to stay indoors following the night attack, and 'ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' reports on this as well. RUF 'Операция Z' claims a significant enemy object is burning in Lviv Oblast, and residents are asked to stay indoors. Drohobych city council reports air quality in Drohobych is within normal limits, with only slight excesses of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur anhydride, and carbon monoxide detected. RUF 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' claims a strike on a "state-of-the-art bunker" in Lviv Oblast. A RUF 'Военкор Котенок' video message shows a significant industrial fire with large plumes of black smoke over Drohobych, consistent with critical infrastructure damage, likely to the Drohobych oil refinery, resulting from a combined night strike. 'Операция Z' explicitly shows multiple videos of the significant fire at a Drohobych industrial facility following a night strike, emphasizing the scale of destruction. NEW: 'Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦' confirms a large-scale fire with significant smoke plumes in Drohobych, stating it is "burning and smoking," consistent with the previous reports of critical infrastructure damage. 'РБК-Україна' reports that the fire at the industrial facility in Drohobych, caused by the enemy attack, has been extinguished. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and UAF AD effectiveness; HIGH - on critical infrastructure damage; HIGH - on immediate aftermath; LOW - on RUF claim of "bunker" strike; HIGH - on visual evidence of industrial fire at Drohobych; HIGH - on multiple RUF confirmations of industrial fire; HIGH - on confirmed large fire in Drohobych; HIGH - on fire extinguished).
Poltava Oblast: UAF Air Force reports cruise missiles from Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts heading towards Poltava Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported previous Kalibrs flying over the intersection of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, heading towards Kremenchuk, and 6x Shaheds west of Poltava. A night attack on Poltava Oblast was confirmed, with debris clearing. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. The Poltava railway station was damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and civilian infrastructure damage; HIGH - on UAF AD effectiveness).
Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast): UAF Air Force reports cruise missiles and two Kinzhals heading towards Kremenchuk. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported 2x Kinzhals, several Kalibrs, and 3x Shahed UAVs heading for Kremenchuk, and then a high-volume saturation attack with 12x Shahed UAVs. UAF issued "Kremenchuk - shelter!" warning. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported "minus" for Kinzhals, Kalibrs, and Shaheds on Kremenchuk. UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports a massed combined strike on one of the enterprises in Kremenchuk district. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video showing impacts. RUF 'Alex Parker Returns' posts a video showing a significant explosion/fire at what is claimed to be the Kremenchuk oil refinery (Kremenchug Oil Refinery). A RUF 'Военкор Котенок' video message shows an industrial area with significant explosions and fires, claimed to be the Kremenchuk oil refinery, resulting from a combined night strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF massed combined attack; HIGH - on civilian infrastructure damage; HIGH - on UAF AD effectiveness; HIGH - on visual evidence of strike on Kremenchuk refinery).
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: UAF Air Force reports cruise missile heading towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported 4x Shaheds south of Ivano-Frankivsk, flying towards the mountains, and a pair of missiles passed Burshtyn towards Stryi/Drohobych. UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" confirmed damage to private households in two communities in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and civilian infrastructure damage).
Vinnytsia Oblast: "Николаевский Ванёк" reported Kalibrs entering southern Vinnytsia Oblast, maintaining a northwest course. UAF Air Force reports a group of cruise missiles in Vinnytsia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks).
Zhytomyr Oblast: UAF Air Force reports a group of cruise missiles in Zhytomyr Oblast heading southwest. "Николаевский Ванёк" reported missiles in Zhytomyr Oblast flying east of Zvyagel, heading towards Shepetivka/Starokostyantyniv. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates a large missile fragment fell in a civilian garden in Zhytomyr Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks; HIGH - on civilian impact/debris fall).
Western Regions (General): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides an overall summary of the massed attack: "‼️рф вночі масовано атакувала Україну БпЛА, калібрами, кинджалами, балістикою і крилатими ракетами зі стратегічної авіації. За даними моніторів, було застосована понад 450 дронів і 40 ракет. Найбільше ворожих цілей вдарили по західним регіонам." UAF Air Force confirms over 500 air targets were launched by RUF and 475 targets were neutralized, with 226 suppressed by EW. UAF Air Force has issued an "all clear" for the immediate missile threat. 'ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS' has reported that 3 Russian strategic bombers launched missiles, with 5 others equipped and standing by, indicating a significant and sustained strategic air threat. Colonelcassad reports seeing morning missiles flying over Chernihiv Oblast, confirming continued aerial activity deeper into Ukrainian territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on overall scale and success of UAF AD; HIGH - on current threat abatement; HIGH - on significant RUF strategic bomber activity; HIGH - on continued RUF missile trajectories over Chernihiv Oblast).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
1.4. Battlefield Environment: Bryansk Oblast
1.5. Force Sustainment (Zaporizhzhia)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COA):
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
RUF:
UAF:
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Successes:
Setbacks:
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RUF:
UAF:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Ukrainian Public:
Russian Public:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
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