Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF claims include the capture of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, and breakthroughs on the outskirts of Pokrovsk towards Belhiyka, with the T0406 highway reportedly under RUF fire control. RUF also claims entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka) in the Velyka Novosilka - Chervona Zirka area, with RUF MoD officially confirming "liberation" of Chervona Zirka, reinforced by new RUF video. UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours and 38 attacks today. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk, including an "unsuccessful attack by motorcyclists." Interrogation of a captured Chinese mercenary from RUF's 102nd Regiment, 150th Division, near Toretsk, is confirmed. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near". RUF "WarGonzo" posts "special report" on 4th Brigade operations towards Konstantinovka and Dyleevka, showing ground movement, tactical discussions, and drone footage. RUF FPV drone strike on a UAF 2S1 self-propelled artillery gun confirmed by Colonelcassad. RUF "Воин DV" claims the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army is now in Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), stating complete liberation of the interfluve is hours away. Video shows drone footage of destroyed/damaged buildings with Russian flags superimposed. New RUF video from "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows drone footage of military operations and Russian soldiers with a flag in an apparently captured or occupied location, further reinforcing RUF claim of Chervona Zirka control. Colonelcassad also posts video confirming 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Chervona Zirka. TASS reports military expert Marochko states the liberation of Chervona Zirka allows RUF to create a bridgehead for advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is an RUF-aligned analytical judgment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claims and offensive tempo; MEDIUM - on verified RUF control of all claimed areas; HIGH - on UAF defensive posture and attrition).

  • UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports elimination of two RUF personnel and shows aerial footage of a RUF soldier killed by a strike in Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" releases video of captured Russian soldiers (Ivan Khamgushiev and Rustem Samiev) admitting to engaging UAF positions and being treated well. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "РБК-Україна" (likely UAF source quoting RUF) reports RF employing "meat assaults" near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, quoting ЦПД. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Два майора" refers to a "casualty card" in a weekly column, indicating RUF is tracking casualties internally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Народная милиция ДНР" posts video claiming to show "heavy drone 'Baba Yaga' VSU" (likely a UAF heavy drone) conducting reconnaissance/attack, with Russian unit insignia overlaid, suggesting capture/repurpose or IO. It claims RUF aviation "swept away" UAF positions near Popiv Yar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim and video existence, LOW - on authenticity of RUF claim of UAF drone/action). "Народная милиция ДНР" posts video claiming "Destruction of a Ukrainian Armed Forces militant by a 132nd Brigade UAV crew" showing an FPV drone strike on a vehicle, with Russian emblem and "Ukrainian combatant" overlay. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video, MEDIUM - on accurate attribution/target).
  • RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts photo/video from Velyka Novosilka - Chervona Zirka area, showing drone footage of damaged buildings with Russian flags, suggesting recent RUF presence/control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on content, MEDIUM - on veracity of control). "Сливочный каприз" posts a bar/line chart and a table titled "Tempo of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the SVO zone" and "Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day," claiming sustained RUF advances from July 2023 to July 2024. This is RUF self-reported data for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF IO, LOW - on objective veracity of km² data).
  • Air Force of AFU reports RUF tactical aviation launching KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Fighterbomber" (RUF) posts thermal/night vision aerial footage of an explosion in a wooded area, claiming "Today the best one neatly worked with four UMPK FAB-500-PD on a Ukrainian Armed Forces strongpoint." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video existence and RUF claim, MEDIUM - on specific location/impact).
  • UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" reports destruction of a Russian 'Msta' self-propelled howitzer and two occupiers by 3rd Separate Tank Iron Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України" reports successful drone strikes on enemy UAV operators and positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Воин DV" shows video of successful FPV drone strikes against multiple RUF vehicles, including armored personnel carriers and trucks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video content, but contradicts RUF narrative, likely UAF success misattributed by sender). "Воин DV" posts video of successful UAF FPV drone strikes against multiple RUF vehicles (van, trucks) and positions. The caption explicitly attributes these to RUF Special Forces, but the content clearly shows RUF targets being hit, suggesting either a misattribution or an attempt to claim UAF successes. New RUF "MoD Russia" video shows drone footage from Vostok and Yug Groups of Forces targeting fortified positions and dugouts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" posts video claiming "Lair of khokhols was previously blown up by IED, comparable in power to an anti-tank mine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim and video, LOW - on veracity/target).
  • UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage showing successful strikes on various RUF targets, including a ZSU-23-4 Shilka anti-aircraft vehicle, a tank, a BMP, a mortar, a Ural truck, and a 'bukhanka' vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video claiming "Lethal accuracy! Russian UAV operators' control point receives three aerial bombs from a MiG-29 on the Southern direction of the front." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video, MEDIUM - on specific target and platform attribution). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of a cemetery with many graves adorned with Russian flags, captioned "First, second, third rows - everywhere military. Earlier, old people were buried here, now only young guys." This is a UAF IO effort to highlight RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Kotsnews" reports "Russian army liberated Chervona Zirka." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts video claiming "Night aerial battles in the sky on the western borders of the DPR. Heavy enemy drones tried to attack our firing positions, but FPV drone crews, on constant duty, promptly reacted to approaching air targets. All shot down." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity of "all shot down" and "heavy enemy drones").
  • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts video showing two Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian drones on the Donetsk direction. "Reconnaissance officers of the 122nd separate battalion of the 133rd Territorial Defense Brigade noticed 'losses hiding in the tree line,' but instead of grenades, dropped water and a note with instructions. Both occupiers clearly did not want to test fate and obediently followed the Ukrainian birds." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Z комитет + карта СВО" posts map images with the caption "Grigorovka," implying RUF presence or operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity of control).
  • RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video titled "11th Guards Army of the Air Force and Air Defense continues to iron the enemy in the offensive zone of the 'Vostok' group of forces. This time, the boys in the area of Voskresenka got hit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, MEDIUM - on veracity of "ironing" and enemy losses). "Colonelcassad" posts video titled "In these minutes, Ussuri paratroopers repel a Ukrainian Armed Forces attack in the 'buffer zone.' 'Leopard' is burning." This claims a UAF attack in the 'buffer zone' (likely Sumy/Kharkiv) and destruction of a Leopard tank. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity given lack of other reports of Leopard losses and UAF offensive).
  • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts video: "Motorcycles and 'bukhankas', popular transport among the occupiers, drive poorly but burn well in the Kupyansk area due to devastating strikes of FPV drones of border guards of the 'Phoenix' unit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Два майора" posts drone footage on the Pokrovsk direction, showing explosions and smoke, indicating ongoing intense combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Z комитет + карта СВО" posts new tactical map images for the Toretsk and Konstantinovskoye directions, showing updated control zones and fortifications, particularly near Toretsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF map content, LOW - on objective veracity of RUF gains).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • RUF "Воин DV" [Video] claims an IED comparable to an anti-tank mine blew up "lair of khokhols." Video shows drone footage of destroyed village/town, with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video existence, LOW on veracity/target).
    • UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" [Video] shows UAF FPV drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Multiple UAF photo messages show results of an unsuccessful attack by RUF motorcyclists near Pokrovsk, reinforcing UAF interdiction success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "STERNENKO" [Video] shows drone footage of military operations, including reconnaissance and FPV strikes, emphasizing Ukrainian capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "MoD Russia" [Video] shows drone footage of strikes on targets and Russian personnel displaying flag in a village. Confirms Chervona Zirka under Russian control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Два майора" [Video] shows individuals in a room with many drones, followed by aerial reconnaissance footage of a damaged urban environment. Indicates RUF focus on drone warfare capabilities and impact of conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Два майора" video shows a "nest of wounded" in a trench, providing a glimpse into forward RUF positions and casualty collection points. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Басурин о главном" [Video] Analysis of military situation, mentions liberation of settlements, progress of Russian forces, strategic importance of high ground, and Turkey's role. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a focus on justifying RUF advances and highlighting their strategic perspective. NEW: RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows aerial footage of explosions and destruction in Donbas, claiming RUF continues to destroy UAF and liberate DNR territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" [Video] "Пацаны, я вас не увидел нах*й!" - RUF soldier expressing frustration, likely indicating poor unit cohesion or lack of support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows Ukrainian defenders capturing a group of Russian "businessmen" from the 132nd Gorlovka Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Toretsk direction, indicating successful prisoner taking. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" [Video] Shows ground-level perspective from a moving vehicle, with a motorcycle visible on the ground. Audio of spoken Russian, suggesting military operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This could be related to the prior reports of UAF targeting motorcyclist assaults.
    • RUF "Kotsnews" [Video] "Epic footage from Vovchansk" shows military operations, including ground troops, aircraft, artillery/missile launches, and industrial/military complex hit by explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms ongoing intense combat in Vovchansk. NEW: RUF "Kotsnews" video on Zaporizhzhia direction shows aerial footage of explosions in buildings, implying RUF strikes on UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Воин DV" claims FPV operator from 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade destroyed enemy resupply/rotation near Oktyabrskoye. Shows drone footage with damaged road/bridge, vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim/video existence, MEDIUM on veracity). This shows RUF's continued reliance on FPV drones for interdiction.
    • RUF "Два майора" [Video] shows aerial view of explosions in a village, captioned "Zaporozhye front, Belogorye, Pologovsky district." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirms RUF shelling in Zaporizhzhia.
    • RUF "Colonelcassad" [Video] "Project 'Lynx' continues perfecting mobile air defense systems..." shows pickup trucks with GShG machine guns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms RUF's adaptation to counter UAV threats.
    • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" [Video] shows thermal footage of what RUF claims is UAF personnel capture, with text overlay "Capture of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim/video, LOW on veracity/attribution). This is an IO effort by RUF.
    • New UAF "STERNENKO" video shows 55th Separate Artillery Brigade (55 OABr) striking RUF targets on the Pokrovsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows BAE Systems integrating a German 155mm gun onto the M109 self-propelled howitzer. This indicates ongoing Western military aid and modernization of UAF artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "MoD Russia" video claims the Dnepr Group's Msta-B gun crew destroyed an AFU observation post in Kherson region, showing the artillery piece firing and subsequent explosions in a populated area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim/video, MEDIUM on veracity/target type).
    • New UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video claims SBU special forces destroying a Russian EW system (R-934) and other targets, showing drone strikes with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Воин DV" video claims fire damage to enemy strongpoints with personnel near Chervone on the Huliaipole direction by 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army. Video shows drone footage with explosions and thermal imagery of heat signatures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity/target). This confirms RUF offensive activity in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
    • New RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims destruction of enemy UAV control point using LMUR (Light Multipurpose Unified Missile). Video shows thermal imagery of a building being hit and exploding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity/target). This indicates RUF is targeting UAF C2 for drones.
    • New RUF "Два майора" video shows activity near Pysarivka and Khoten on the Sumy direction, implying continued RUF presence and activity in border areas. Video shows drone footage of vehicles (possibly HUMVEE) being targeted and destroyed with tactical overlays. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM on veracity of RUF attribution/target). This suggests RUF ground activity or drone strikes in the Sumy border region.
    • New RUF "Alex Parker Returns" photo claims liberation of Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, stating it is the "first settlement" there. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity as Dachne is a common settlement name and the previous RUF claim about Chervona Zirka creating a bridgehead towards Dnipropetrovsk was an analytical judgment, not a tactical claim of control). This is a significant and likely false RUF claim of further penetration into Ukraine. NEW: RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a highly aggressive, crude photo message claiming Russian forces have entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reinforcing the "Dachne" claim. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO, LOW on veracity).
    • New RUF "Colonelcassad" photos claim RUF advance near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, and Chasiv Yar, with tactical map overlays. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and maps, LOW on objective veracity). This supports the ongoing RUF focus on Chasiv Yar. NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" photos show severe destruction in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk direction), claiming the front is 2km away and battles are near Lysovka, Zverevo, and Belhiyka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on observation of destruction, MEDIUM on proximity claims).
    • New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video claims destruction of occupiers on the left bank of Kherson with GBU62 from a MiG-29 crew. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity of GBU62/MiG-29 attribution). This indicates continued UAF deep strikes into occupied Kherson.
    • New RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows a "frontline buggy" of Pacific Fleet Marines, a modified civilian vehicle with camouflage and anti-drone equipment, implying RUF is adapting civilian vehicles for military use and self-defense against drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video shows TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems operating in Vovchansk. Video shows large explosions at an industrial complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms the continued heavy use of TOS-1A by RUF in Vovchansk, which is devastating to urban environments.
    • NEW: UAF "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" video claims a Ukrainian MiG-29 destroyed a Russian battalion command post in Nesterianka, showing an airstrike on a building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF claim and video, MEDIUM on specific target identification and platform).
    • NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts photos claiming a "new munition for strikes on rear areas," showing images of a FAB-type bomb with a UMPK. This is RUF IO highlighting extended range glide bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO, LOW on "newest").
    • NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows aerial footage of strikes on hangars/buildings in the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming their drones ("Molnii") are destroying UAF "necessary but useless" structures. This suggests RUF is actively targeting UAF logistical/storage points. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity of target type).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video shows emergency services, including police and medical personnel, responding to an incident at a 21-story building in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure.
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video claims the 3rd Assault Brigade destroyed a rare RUF ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tank, BMP, mortar, Ural truck, 'bukhanka', and infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates effective UAF strikes against RUF armored vehicles and personnel.
    • NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier near a tanker. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates ongoing UAF drone effectiveness.
    • NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows Ukrainian forces capturing multiple prisoners from the RUF 132nd Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is valuable for intelligence.
    • NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Video] confirms brutal combat near Pokrovsk, with RUF claiming destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM on veracity of claims).
    • NEW: RUF "Два майора" [Video] shows aerial footage and military overlays, captioned "Pokrovsky (Krasnoarmeysky) direction". (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM on veracity of content). This indicates continued RUF focus and combat in this area.
    • NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" [Video] shows drone footage of successful strikes against RUF targets on the Lyman direction, performed by the "VIDARR" battalion of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms UAF drone effectiveness and ongoing combat in the Lyman area.

• Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Lypove, Shyykivka, Novoserhiyivka, Ridkodub, Torske and towards Hluschenkove, Hrekivka, Shandryholove, Novyi Myr). RUF claims continue regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF defensive success; MEDIUM - on RUF claims of control).

  • RUF MoD Russia video shows servicemen of a separate combat engineer battalion (Zapad Group of Forces) continuing demining roads in the Krasny Liman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Mash на Донбассе" reports 4 people died in a minibus accident on a highway in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance, but indicates civilian presence in active conflict zone). NEW: RUF "Mash на Донbasse" video shows a civilian in Luhansk vandalizing benches, which is a civilian incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Death toll from missile attack on Dnipro increased to 22 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Iskander strikes reportedly destroyed workshops of the Dnipropetrovsk Pipe Plant. Days of mourning declared in Samara. New explosion reported in Dnipro. UAF Air Force reports a KAB course on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, originating from Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Alex Parker Returns" claims Dnipropetrovsk was attacked with "jet iron" (likely referring to guided aerial bombs, FAB/KABs) for the first time, traveling over 100km. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports a Russian KAB flew "almost to Dnipro." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity of "first time"). UAF Air Force and "Оперативний ЗСУ" deny reports of a KAB strike on Dnipro, indicating these were false alarms or RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

  • UAF "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" (Serhiy Lysak, Dnipropetrovsk OVA Head) confirms "The explosion heard in the Dnipro suburb is the work of our air defense." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "Near Dnipro, air defense shot down the newest Grom-1 missile-bomb," citing Lysak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts video of a Su-34 and a munition, claiming the "cast iron that attacked Dnipropetrovsk was without a jet engine. This is a new UMPK, which in the future will increase the flight range of cast iron up to 200 km. Currently, good Russian people have managed to bring the range up to 120 km." This is an RUF claim to demonstrate increased range of guided bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim and IO, LOW - on veracity of "newest" and implied precision, MEDIUM - on potential for increased range for some UMPK variants). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" also claims "Air Defense Titans announced that they were able to shoot down the new cast iron over Dnipropetrovsk. Everything is fine." This is RUF attempting to take credit for UAF AD success in a sarcastic tone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports "Air Force commented on the 'KAB attack on Dnipro'," likely referring to the denial. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) [Photo message] Claims "Dnepropetrovsk possibly attacked by newest Grom-1 missile-bomb." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity, as UAF denied this). This is a clear RUF IO attempt to boast about a new weapon and create fear, despite UAF AD success.
    • New RUF "Alex Parker Returns" photo claims "first settlement" Dachne liberated in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity given lack of UAF confirmation and strategic implications). NEW: RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a highly aggressive, crude photo message claiming Russian forces have entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO, LOW on veracity).
    • NEW: UAF Air Force reports a threat of aviation munitions application for Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" [Photo messages] report new RUF attacks with drones and artillery on Nikopol district, including Nikopol city and surrounding communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms continued RUF shelling of civilian areas.

• Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states the advance of Russian troops in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. RUF sources, however, continue to claim offensive operations and significant advances (up to 14 km from the border, and pushing UAF "elite" back from Yunakivka). UAF General Staff reports repelling 17 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF stabilization; MEDIUM - on conflicting RUF claims of advances).

  • TASS reports RUF AD shot down 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Oryol, Bryansk, and Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports three aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Another message from AV БогомаZ confirms an additional two aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports 13 UAVs shot down over RF and Crimea this morning by RUF MoD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports a power substation is burning after a UAV attack in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast. Video shows significant smoke and fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Colonelcassad" posts thermal footage claiming "The enemy again throws heavy equipment to its doom on the Glushkovo direction - Northerners repel the attack, destroying occupiers and armored vehicles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim/video, LOW - on veracity of enemy losses).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk on Ukraine's Constitution Day, - sources." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF claim). UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts video showing smoke from a multi-story building, captioned "⚡️ A military object was hit in Bryansk," supporting the UAF claim of a strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk on Constitution Day. New STERNENKO video also shows smoke rising from a distant location and from a multi-story residential building in Bryansk, reinforcing UAF claims of strikes on military objects. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" also reports on "some movement" in Bryansk, mentioning air defense consequences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports "120th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Bryansk was attacked this morning by UAVs, - Ukrainian media." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on reporting, MEDIUM - on confirmation of target).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Два майора" [Photo message] from "Kursk Oblast, acting governor" shows a map with route information, distance 9.64 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates RUF maintaining presence and potentially planning operations in Kursk border areas.
    • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" [Photo message] from "Kursk Oblast" shows a tactical map of Kursk Oblast, likely for internal RUF use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This reinforces the RUF focus on border areas.
    • New RUF "Два майора" video shows drone footage of vehicles being targeted and destroyed near Pysarivka and Khoten on the Sumy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM on veracity of RUF attribution/target). This is RUF claiming a successful strike in the Sumy border region.
    • NEW: Colonelcassad [Video] claims "Syrsky's darlings" are being defeated in Sumy Oblast. Video shows drone footage with thermal imaging of personnel in a wooded area, an explosion, and smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, LOW on veracity).

• Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Okhrimivka, Dovhenke) and ground clashes near Vovchansk (including Fyholivka and towards Petro-Ivanivka) and Kupyansk (near Pischane, Kindrashivka and towards Novoplatonivka and Petropavlivka). RUF claims of taking Novaya Kurglyakovka in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF reports continued demining efforts. Two children injured due to an explosion in Stavysche, Shevchenkivska Hromada. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on continued heavy combat in Vovchansk; HIGH - on civilian impact).

  • UAF "Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА" posts a graphic celebrating Constitution Day, indicating leadership engagement, and "systemic cooperation with the volunteer community." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА" also posts a video celebrating Constitution Day, featuring President Zelenskyy and a solemn military ceremony. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports on 3rd Assault Brigade showing Russian prisoners of war working on the reconstruction of Izium. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports RUF drone freely operated over Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, correcting strike on industrial zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 27-28 June 2025," showing large fires/explosions, specifically citing "News Odesa" watermark, but context suggests it is likely from prior Odesa strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video existence, LOW - on direct correlation to 27-28 June strikes based solely on this video, MEDIUM - on RUF intent to show widespread destruction).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "In Kharkiv region, two children were blown up by an unknown object." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is likely a result of UXO or mine contamination.
  • Office of the Prosecutor General reports "Prosecutor's Office together with the police exposed a criminal organization led by the former deputy mayor of Kharkiv. Suspected of embezzling 5.4 million hryvnias of budget funds allocated for fortifications." New "РБК-Україна" video shows footage of the detention of the former deputy mayor of Kharkiv related to this case. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on report, indicates internal corruption challenges for UAF).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches on Northern Kharkiv Oblast and an enemy UAV inbound for Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF Air Force confirms an enemy UAV is flying in northern Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video shows TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems operating in Vovchansk, with large explosions at an industrial complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms the continued heavy use of TOS-1A by RUF in Vovchansk, causing severe urban destruction.
    • New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" reports on field meetings in Lozova district, Kharkiv Oblast, with families of missing and captured military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This highlights the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict and the efforts to support affected families.
    • NEW: RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports the former Deputy Mayor of Kharkiv was detained for embezzlement on fortification construction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" [Photo message] reports a man in Kharkiv threatened to blow up a shopping center with a grenade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, LOW military relevance beyond internal security).

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF continues to report heavy shelling and some RUF advances. UAF 65th Separate Motorized Brigade reports eliminating two RUF personnel in Zaporizhzhia direction. New UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" video shows officials in front of Ukrainian flags for Constitution Day, reinforcing morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on ongoing shelling; MEDIUM - on RUF claims of breakthrough).

  • UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launching KABs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New report confirms repeated KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shows video of awards being presented to families of fallen soldiers for Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air raid alert ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports "As a result of enemy attack, a child was wounded." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" also posts a photo message celebrating a local boxer, an example of civilian life/morale content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "STERNENKO" posts drone footage of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming "Another train was hit in Zaporizhzhia!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video, MEDIUM - on specific target hit).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" [Photo messages] emphasize the role of Ukrainian people in writing history and upholding the Constitution through their actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports a 16-year-old girl wounded by enemy FPV drone strike in Zaporizhzhia district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a transfer of military equipment to a National Guard unit on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" video shows officials in front of Ukrainian flags and discussing the importance of relations with Poland. This implies continued focus on international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Воин DV" video claims fire damage to enemy strongpoints with personnel near Chervone on the Huliaipole direction by 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity/target). This confirms RUF offensive activity in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
    • NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" [Video] claims rocket strike on UAF UAV hangars in Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity/target). This indicates RUF is actively targeting UAF drone infrastructure in the area.
    • NEW: UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" [Photo messages] show commemoration of fallen defenders in Zaporizhzhia on Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a morale-boosting and remembrance effort.

• Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF claims UAF is setting forest fires for tactical purposes. UAF General Staff reports repelling 2 Russian army assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on positional fighting; LOW - on RUF claims of UAF setting fires).

  • No significant changes or new reports in this reporting period beyond UAF repelled assaults. UAF "Сили оборони Півдня України" posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling in Kherson Oblast, with a caption stating "Russian occupiers do not stop cynically shelling peaceful residents of Kherson region, terrorizing the civilian population daily." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • RUF "Два майора" [Video] shows drone footage and military personnel, indicating focus on drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" [Video] shows Ukrainian flag raised over occupied Kherson region by 34th Marine Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" [Video] claims "Destruction of occupiers in their lair on the left bank of our Kherson region with #GBU62 from MiG-29 crew." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF claim/video, MEDIUM on veracity of GBU62/MiG-29 attribution). This indicates UAF is attempting deep strikes on RUF positions in occupied Kherson.
    • New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video claims destruction of occupiers on the left bank of Kherson with GBU62 from a MiG-29 crew. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity of GBU62/MiG-29 attribution). This indicates continued UAF deep strikes into occupied Kherson.
    • NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims destruction of a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 34th Separate Brigade of the Naval Infantry (OBRBO VSU) in Kherson using an X-35 missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity/target). This highlights RUF's continued targeting of UAF strongpoints in the region.

• Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. Multiple Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD. Localized street shooting reported in Odesa's Soborna Square, with one casualty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF attacks and civilian casualties).

  • STERNENKO reports the identities of the deceased civilians in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA confirms a teacher and her husband died in Odesa as a result of the Russian multi-story building attack, citing the mayor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" [Photo message] "Russians killed a teacher and her husband during a drone attack on Odesa." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This reinforces the impact on civilians and acts as UAF IO.
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video shows emergency services responding to a strike on a 21-story building in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms the civilian impact.
    • NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" [Video] shows police response to the Odesa attack, depicting emergency personnel and victims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This further emphasizes the civilian impact and the scale of the emergency.

• Kyiv Oblast: Ballistic missile threat in Kyiv Oblast has ended. UAF confirms celebrating Constitution Day. New "РБК-Україна" video shows President Zelenskyy's full address for Constitution Day. New "Zelenskiy / Official" video shows Zelenskyy and Duda honoring fallen defenders, reinforcing international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF AD success; HIGH - on Constitution Day celebrations).

  • UAF "Олексій Білошицький" posts video montage celebrating Constitution Day, featuring military and police personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a music video about "For Ukraine!", emphasizing the fight for freedom. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" also posts video of Zelenskyy and military personnel celebrating Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports on new dog ownership rules in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates civilian life continues). UAF "РБК-Україна" releases video on the storage of Ukraine's Constitution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports "LIVE. Constitution Day of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Zelenskiy / Official also reports "LIVE. Constitution Day of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Zelenskiy / Official" posts video of himself and other dignitaries at a Constitution Day ceremony, including military band and flag. "Zelenskiy / Official" posts a series of photos related to Constitution Day, showing Zelenskyy, military personnel, and civilians, reinforcing the theme of national unity and military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" posts a photo message celebrating Constitution Day with the caption "📖 It works when it is adhered to and respected." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts an image claiming "Kyiv bookstore 'Sens' decided to 'edit' the Constitution on the day of the Basic Law of Ukraine," likely an IO attempt to discredit UAF's celebration of Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on IO content).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • UAF "STERNENKO" [Video] shows Constitution Day celebrations by Ukrainian forces and public. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація)" [Video] shows Constitution Day celebrations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New "Zelenskiy / Official" video shows President Zelenskyy meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda, emphasizing diplomatic cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New UAF General Staff photos show President Zelenskyy presenting combat flags to commanders of the 300th Training Tank Regiment, 5th Separate Signal Regiment, and 534th Separate Engineer-Sapper Battalion of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade. This signifies recognition and morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" photo indicates controversy regarding an "Armia Krajowa" (Polish Home Army) flag displayed by a security guard during Duda's visit, a sensitive historical issue that RUF could exploit for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New UAF "РБК-Україна" video shows heavy hail and thunderstorms in Kyiv, causing localized flooding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a civilian-related weather event.
    • New UAF "РБК-Україна" photo shows the main flag of Ukraine in Kyiv will be temporarily lowered due to bad weather. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a routine civil measure.
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports that tram movement is delayed in Kyiv after heavy rain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a civilian infrastructure issue.

• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports - new):

  • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Ivano-Daryivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Markove, Predtechyne and towards Bila Hora. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Toretsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Yablunivka, Dyliyivka, Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Rusyn Yar, towards Scherbynivka, Novospaske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Shevchenko, Fedorivka and towards Zaporizhzhya, Myrne, Perebudova, Yalty and Komar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • RUF "Z комитет + карта СВО" [Photo/Video] shows a map of the "Bogatyrskoye Direction" as of 28 June 2025. This indicates RUF operations or claims in the Bogatyrskoye area, which is within the Novopavlivka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity of control).
    • New UAF General Staff operational update for 16:00 28.06.2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Воин DV" is reporting on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 8 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Oryol, Bryansk Oblasts and Crimea. RUF "Военкор Котенок" claims 44 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were shot down overnight and this morning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF AD claims; HIGH - on UAF deep strikes into RF territory). Ongoing forest fires in Transbaikalia and Kherson Oblast potentially impacting logistics. Arrests in Armenia of Archbishop Mikael continue to be reported. Large fires erupted at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea following overnight explosions. New reports of a light aircraft (Yak-18) crash in Panovo, near Kolomna, Moscow Oblast, with 4 fatalities. This is a civilian aviation incident, not directly related to military operations, but indicative of general Russian domestic events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

  • RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports three aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on "Mass burials in Iran," likely for IO purposes to draw parallels or distract. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports 13 UAVs shot down over RF and Crimea this morning by RUF MoD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports a power substation is burning after a UAV attack in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast. Video shows significant smoke and fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports a conscript died in Bryansk Oblast three days before demobilization while unloading a KAMAZ truck with asphalt. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Новости Москвы" reports cold weather is approaching Moscow. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts photos of mushrooms, likely unrelated to military context, indicating a focus on civilian life/propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on content).
  • TASS reports at least 13 killed and 29 wounded due to a suicide bomber attack in Northwest Pakistan, and 4 Russian citizens (including 2 children) died in a car accident near Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on TASS reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance to Ukraine). TASS also reports Putin is participating in the opening of youth centers and stated that "Young participants of the SVO show the most important moral guidelines by their example." This is a clear IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "MoD Russia" posts photos of Putin participating in a videoconference for the opening of youth centers across Russia, timed with Youth Day, reinforcing the IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims Ukrainian TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) are using thermal-imaging UAVs to find men hiding in houses, citing pro-Russian underground in Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity).
  • RUF "Басурин о главном" posts video of Putin congratulating school graduates, a likely morale/IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk on Ukraine's Constitution Day, - sources." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF claim).
  • ASTRA posts two photo messages captioned "Weekends! And that means a fresh column of good news from Timofey the cat is already on Astra's Instagram," indicating a continued focus on civilian life/morale in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts photo message: "Iran has begun to restore a nuclear plant in Fordow, builders were spotted at the site of the US strike, - NYP." This is likely UAF IO to highlight Iranian/Russian cooperation or US actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF IO).
  • RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts photos captioned "Pyppa personally congratulated the son of the head of Chechnya, Adam Kadyrov, the child prodigy Adamka, on his wedding." This is a significant IO effort to show high-level support for Kadyrov's family and strengthen ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" also posts about Azerbaijan summoning the Russian temporary chargé d'affaires over detentions in Yekaterinburg, indicating diplomatic friction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts a photo of a "helicopter-van" and asks if anyone has flown on it, an attempt at lighthearted engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts video captioned "Miss!" showing a vehicle with an anti-aircraft gun in a desert environment, possibly attempting to convey RUF combat effectiveness in other theaters or to highlight challenges of targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video content, MEDIUM - on relevance to Ukraine). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts photo message captioned "They are reading," showing a social media feed, which is likely part of IO to show engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • TASS reports "Pashinyan proposed to political opponents from July 1 to mutually refrain from using insults and promised to adhere to the ban for five days." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on TASS reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance, but indicates political developments in Armenia, a CSTO member). TASS also reports Israel began preparing for an operation against Iran in 2010. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on TASS reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance, but part of RUF IO on international conflicts). NEW: TASS reports Donald Trump stated Iran was not aware of US strikes on its nuclear facilities until the last moment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports three aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports on answering questions from Russian and Belarusian media, which indicates continued close ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "AV БогомаZ" posts photo and video content of a "City of Masters" event in Bryansk, including an 80-meter Slavic pie, emphasizing "Great Victory, unity and friendship of our peoples." This is a major IO effort to boost morale and reinforce national unity in the face of UAF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "AV БогомаZ" posts photos of cultural events focused on Slavic writing, likely a morale/unity boosting effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "AV БогомаZ" photos show a meeting between Governor Bogomaz and participants of the International Youth Camp "Friendship-2025," reinforcing IO about youth engagement and cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Additional photos from AV Bogomaz show youth gatherings and official meetings, continuing this theme. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "STERNENKO" (misattributed as RUF, but likely a misclick in source XML and is UAF STERNENKO) posts a photo with the caption "Russians don't give up!", displaying a capture/kill list. This is likely UAF IO against RUF, despite the Russian caption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New STERNENKO message: "Something, we haven't had large crypto donations for a long time," indicating ongoing fundraising needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" states "There are grunts that the vertical ones are bad, but we'll wait for pictures," likely referring to damage to RUF air defense or other vertical launchers. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" posts video: "Starmer told how he met Zelensky after a loud quarrel with Trump," indicating continued diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" also reports on satellite images showing Russia expanding an aircraft factory in Kazan, indicating increased military production capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports Telegram banned channels of Ukrainian OSINT projects, alongside Russian ones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts video with caption "Pyppa, results," showing street scenes in Moscow with people in niqabs, and also mentions trash/dumpster fires. This appears to be an attempt to show the "results" of Putin's rule, perhaps criticizing social issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on content, MEDIUM - on intent). NEW: RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video contains discussion about social issues and drug use in Dagestan. (LOW military relevance, HIGH confidence on content). NEW: RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video involves sports betting content. (LOW military relevance, HIGH confidence on content).
  • RUF "WarGonzo" asks "Will Trump abandon Ukraine for Israel?", a clear RUF IO attempt to sow discord and exploit perceived US foreign policy shifts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Colonelcassad" posts photo messages, captioned "Latvia has begun testing drones and already dreams of selling them to NATO or sending them to Ukraine." This is an RUF IO effort to discredit Western support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports on a Russian serviceman returning from Ukrainian captivity complaining about being illegally confined to a military unit despite injuries and forced back to war, providing video evidence. This is significant for exposing RUF internal issues and treatment of POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Рыбарь" posts a short text message, "Suddenly they gave voice," indicating an update without content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • UAF "РБК-Україна," "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS," "Оперативний ЗСУ," "STERNENKO," "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" all report SBU destroying a Pantsir-S1 AD system and three helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-26, Mi-28) at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea. Video shows large fires at night, consistent with previous reports of successful deep strikes on this airfield. This is a significant success for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS reports engine failure as preliminary cause of light aircraft (Yak-18) crash in Podmoskovye, Moscow Oblast. Video shows firefighter extinguishing wreckage. This is a civilian aviation incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS also reports the Investigative Committee of Russia requested a report on the crash of the Yak-18T. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Colonelcassad" [Video] shows mobile air defense systems (pickup trucks with GShG machine guns) designed to neutralize UAVs in frontline and rear areas. This indicates RUF is actively developing and deploying mobile counter-drone systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Colonelcassad" messages indicate ongoing RUF focus on the Middle East, particularly discrediting CNN reporting on US strikes in Iran and discussing "3rd killed Iranian military leader" appearing in public, aimed at Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" [Video] shows individuals with a combined Serbian/Russian flag asking for donations for Mavic 3T/Pro drones and communication equipment. Indicates continued reliance on volunteer support for specialized equipment and possible involvement of foreign volunteers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • TASS reports Putin commented on insufficient salaries for student brigades, saying he earned more. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on TASS reporting, LOW on military relevance). New TASS report claims Putin named "special operation fighters 'our guys' for everyone," a significant IO push to humanize and normalize soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "AV БогомаZ" [Photo/Video] shows "Slavic Unity" festival, emphasizing friendship and national unity, especially on "Youth Day," likely a morale/IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "AV БогомаZ" photo shows Bryansk Governor Bogomaz meeting with Gomel Region (Belarus) Executive Committee Chairman Ivan Krupko, reinforcing regional cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "AV БогомаZ" also posts multiple photos from a religious event, possibly attempting to tie religious identity to national unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Военкор Котенок" [Video] shows Kadyrovite "bearded men" beating Russian military police (VAI) for attempting to enforce law. This reinforces previous reports of internal discipline issues and insubordination among Kadyrovite forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Военкор Котенок" is directly commenting on the Kadyrovite beating of military police, stating the situation is "shitty" and criticizing the "uncontrolled representatives of a known unit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a significant internal criticism from a RUF-aligned source.
    • UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" [Video] shows a Russian soldier complaining about being unacknowledged by his comrades ("Пацаны, я вас не увидел нах*й!"). This provides further evidence of low morale and poor cohesion within some RUF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Басурин о главном" [Video] shows an interview on Radio Sputnik, likely disseminating pro-Kremlin narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Басурин о главном" message promotes listening to his program on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda-Novorossiya. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Басурин о главном" discusses Israeli intelligence preparing to strike Iran for 15 years. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "Привид Хортиці" [Photo] celebrates Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "ASTRA" [Photo message] SBU claims strike on Crimea airfield: Pantsir-S1 and three helicopters destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Reinforces UAF successful strike. New ASTRA message is a fundraising appeal for ASTRA employees, indicating internal financial sustainability issues for this independent media outlet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: ASTRA reports on the leader of the CDU/CSU faction calling for Germany to have access to NATO nuclear weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" [Video] "Incendiary night at 'Kirovskoye' airfield!" shows large fires and explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Further confirms successful UAF strike. New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" photo message explicitly attributes RUF's return of T-62 tanks to a lack of modern equipment, citing GUR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" [Video] shows Donald Trump, with Russian text overlay. This appears to be UAF IO using Trump's rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" [Video] "Smoke is visible from afar: a power substation caught fire in Volokonivka, Belgorod region, today around 11 o'clock." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirms UAF strike on RF infrastructure. New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" text message confirms SBU destroyed Pantsir-S1 and three helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-26, Mi-28) in occupied Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" [Photo message] "Conscript died in Bryansk Oblast." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Indicates ongoing personnel issues for RUF.
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" [Photo message] "Ukraine will do everything for relations with Poland to strengthen under President Nawrocki, - Zelensky." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Shows continued diplomatic efforts by Ukraine. New UAF "РБК-Україна" reports partial power outages in Poltava district due to bad weather, a non-military event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "РБК-Україна" reports Zelensky named cooperation with future Polish president on aggression as the main issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" is reporting that Germany's Ministry of Defense has "lost" 1 billion Euros in aid for Ukraine, though it cites "co-financing" that will be returned by the European Peace Fund. This suggests an administrative issue rather than a true loss of funds. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on the report, MEDIUM on the actual impact of the "loss").
    • UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" [Photo message] "Naval Institute graduated young lieutenants." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demonstrates UAF force generation and long-term training.
    • TASS reports "Court arrested for two months one of the followers of blogger Alex Leslie." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a civilian legal matter but indicates internal RF security actions. New TASS reports Iran opened airspace over central and partial western areas for domestic and international flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance to Ukraine). NEW: TASS reports Tatiana Kim is the only Russian woman in Forbes' top 50 richest women. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, LOW military relevance). TASS is also countering the "Flow" operation fake news, which relates to Russian soldiers not receiving awards or medical aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" [Photo message] "Ukrainian writer and dissident Ihor Kalynets died." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Civilian news.
    • UAF "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" states "NASA FIRMS records several ignition points on the territory of 'Kirovskoye' airfield." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirms damage to the airfield through open-source satellite data. New UAF "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" message states "Now we will show Atlas," possibly referring to imagery from a reconnaissance drone or mapping system. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New UAF "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" photo message indicates a destroyed fuel tank and fire damage to two others at the "Atlas" oil depot from a 23 JUN attack, confirmed by satellite imagery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a UAF claim of successful deep strike impact.
    • RUF "Два майора" reports "Transboundary undiplomatic audacity of Azerbaijan." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Highlights diplomatic friction. NEW: RUF "Два майора" video shows a man in military uniform speaking about Ukrainian history and politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Два майора" video contains visuals of drones and damage, along with a "nest of wounded," implying focus on drone warfare and front-line conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Два майора" posts photos related to "Youth Day," with flags and logos, indicating a focus on youth engagement and nationalism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Филолог в засаде" mentions "problem of assigning AWOL status in advance to fighters going on assaults," referring to a practice where soldiers are effectively declared AWOL if they don't return from an assault, even if killed/captured, to avoid paying benefits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting on this issue, MEDIUM on its widespread implementation). This is a significant internal morale issue and likely an IO effort to criticize Russian military bureaucracy. NEW: RUF "Филолог в засаде" is appealing for donations for "Ceh 77" (Workshop 77) for materials. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Новости Москвы" [Video] "In Podmoskovye, children stole a children's bus and crashed into a shopping center display." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on civilian incident, LOW on military relevance). NEW: RUF "Новости Москвы" video shows a wildlife park, which is civilian content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Fighterbomber" posts photos captioned "Tails for your feed" showing aircraft tails, likely as morale content or showcasing aircraft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Fighterbomber" posts photos captioned "Youth!" which is a morale effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Iranian intelligence attempting to assassinate former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2022. This is likely RUF IO to highlight US/Iran tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) video shows Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stating he has no reason to meet with Zelenskyy, indicating continued RUF IO amplifying anti-Ukraine sentiment from European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New UAF "РБК-Україна" message indicates US attacked an Iranian nuclear facility without bunker-buster bombs, citing CNN. This is UAF IO to highlight US capabilities and potentially US-Iran tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Глеб Никитин" photos show an official meeting on demographic and family policy, which is civilian content. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "ASTRA" reports German Air Force intercepted a Russian military intelligence aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the ninth time this year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued Russian aerial reconnaissance near NATO borders.
    • NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts text about "Fires near Dnipro," implying RUF strikes or the aftermath of strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts a text message about "Kyrgyzstan: elections soon?", which is civilian news but indicates Russia's monitoring of its near abroad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Два майора" video shows motivation speeches under FABs with UMPKs, likely for morale boosting among RUF pilots. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Два майора" video shows men in camouflage with modified military vehicles featuring anti-drone cages, distributing talismans for morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This highlights RUF adaptation to drone threats and internal morale efforts.
    • NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" reports Iran officially stated there will be no more IAEA inspections at its facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" [Video] shows a reconnaissance unit operating in the field, indicating active ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports Pope Leo XIV wrote an appeal in Ukrainian, sharing the pain of war victims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates religious support for Ukraine.
    • NEW: RUF "WarGonzo" [Video] shows a forum for "Patriots of Ural" in Yekaterinburg, focusing on psychological support for SVO participants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a state-backed effort to address veteran welfare and manage information related to the conflict.
    • NEW: RUF "Alex Parker Returns" [Photo message] contains bizarre and nonsensical claims about Putin, aliens, and US politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO, LOW on veracity). This is a highly unusual form of disinformation, possibly indicating a chaotic or desperate attempt to distract or entertain.
    • NEW: TASS reports a Petersburg legislator was arrested for bribery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, LOW military relevance).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Continued Fire Hazards: Large forest fires persist in Transbaikalia, Russia, impacting railway lines, and forest fires are also reported in Kherson Oblast, with RUF claiming UAF forces are intentionally setting them. These conditions indicate persistent dry weather in some regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Post-Strike Environmental Impacts: Firefighters and emergency services continue to respond to building fires in Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast) and Odesa, indicating significant localized environmental impact from RUF strikes. A power substation fire in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast, caused by a UAV attack, indicates localized environmental and infrastructure damage. Significant fires at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea after explosions indicate substantial damage. New satellite imagery confirms destruction of one fuel tank and fire damage to two others at the "Atlas" oil depot from a UAF strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• General Conditions: Previous reports of strong winds and rains returning for the weekend across Ukraine may impact ground and air operations. New reports of bad weather causing partial power outages in Poltava district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New reports of heavy hail and thunderstorms in Kyiv causing localized flooding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a photo message indicating smoke and heat in a forested area on the Kupyansk direction, suggesting ongoing fire concerns impacting military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF forces are heavily concentrated on the Pokrovsk axis (estimated 111,000 personnel), conducting sustained assaults and claiming tactical gains, including control of key settlements and the T0406 highway. UAF is holding defensive lines and inflicting heavy casualties, as evidenced by successful drone strikes and captured personnel. RUF is also focusing on Chasiv Yar, with intense preparatory bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF strength and intent; HIGH - on UAF defensive resilience).

  • RUF: Continued offensive operations with main effort on Pokrovsk. Employing combined arms assaults supported by heavy artillery, FABs, and FPV drones. Claimed captures of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Belhiyka (outskirts), and entry into Udachne, and Chervona Zirka (confirmed liberated by RUF MoD). Increased use of ISR drones and special forces (14th Guards Brigade, 30th Separate Company). Logistics appear strained but functional, evidenced by reliance on FPV drone funding appeals. Internal discipline issues with Kadyrovite forces reported (beating military police) and alleged AWOL designations for fallen soldiers. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms Syrskyi's assessment of 111,000 RUF personnel on Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shares a video of a ballistic vest test, indicating internal materiel development/propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "MoD Russia" video shows T-72B3 tank training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD is mass returning T-62 tanks to service, indicating materiel strain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF FSB claims to have uncovered UAF sabotage groups near Dzerzhinsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity). RUF "Два майора" posts a series of photos under the caption "Soldier's everyday life," showing a dog. This is likely morale-boosting content to humanize soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD claims successful strikes against ammunition depots, materiel warehouses, UAV production workshops, uncrewed boat storage, and temporary deployment points of UAF and foreign mercenaries in 142 areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity). New RUF "Два майора" video provides insight into a RUF forward trench position, described as a "nest of wounded," indicating the nature of RUF's combat environments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Два майора" video shows modified military vehicles with anti-drone cages, and talismans being distributed, indicating RUF adaptation to drone threats and morale efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Воин DV" [Video] shows drone footage of a strike against a UAF Senator APC in the area of Boguslavka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on video, MEDIUM on veracity of RUF attribution/target). This indicates RUF's continued effective use of drones for targeting UAF armored vehicles.
  • UAF: Actively defending and repelling numerous assaults (41 in Pokrovsk direction in last 24h). Employing FPV drones for counter-battery and personnel elimination, including successful strikes against RUF motorcyclists. Conducting limited counter-attacks. Capturing RUF personnel (including a Chinese mercenary and two others via drone). Maintaining C2 and overall force integrity despite intense pressure. National Guard units (Rubizh brigade) are appealing for funds due to materiel losses, indicating resource constraints. Celebration of Constitution Day for morale. UAF "STERNENKO" reports procurement of +370 FPV drones in the last 24 hours via donations, indicating significant civilian support for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video titled "Successful hunt of special forces on enemy evil spirits," implying tactical successes and receiving REB equipment from supporters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force displays F-16s with missiles and personnel for Constitution Day, demonstrating readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff video shows soldiers in trenches and operating vehicles, celebrating Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»" posts a graphic celebrating Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the SSO "A" of SBU destroying a Pantsir-S1 AD system, vehicles, and other equipment over two weeks, indicating effective counter-operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Naval Institute graduated young lieutenants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF General Staff photos show President Zelenskyy presenting combat flags to training and support units, reinforcing force generation efforts and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video shows the 3rd Assault Brigade destroying a ZSU-23-4 Shilka and other RUF equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms capture of 132nd Brigade RUF prisoners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" [Video] shows drone strikes by the "VIDARR" battalion of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade against RUF personnel on the Lyman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This confirms UAF effectiveness in engaging enemy infantry.

• Sumy Oblast: RUF claims significant pushes (14km from border) and high UAF casualties in Yunakivka, contradicting UAF reports of stabilization. UAF confirms active air defense engagement against RUF UAVs and guided aerial bombs, repelling 17 assaults in Kursk and Sumy directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF AD and defensive success).

• Kharkiv Oblast: RUF tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs (Okhrimivka, Dovhenke). RUF ISR claims identification of GUR facility near KhTZ. UAF continues demining and reports successful strikes against RUF vehicles. Local authorities (Oleg Synegubov) report "systemic cooperation with the volunteer community" for support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF air activity and UAF counter-operations).

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske. RUF artillery active near Huliaipole. UAF reports continued heavy shelling and UAV attacks on civilian infrastructure. UAF 65th OMBr demonstrates successful elimination of two RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on ongoing combat and shelling).

• Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF maintain positional presence. UAF 40th Separate Battalion of Marine Corps engaged RUF on the left bank of the Dnipro. RUF 49th Army active on the right bank. RUF claims UAF is setting forest fires. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video where UAF forces reportedly admit to burning down their own citizens' homes for tactical purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity). UAF General Staff reports repelling 2 Russian army assaults. UAF appears to be conducting deep strikes against RUF positions. NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" claims destruction of a UAF temporary deployment point in Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, MEDIUM on veracity).

• Odesa Oblast: UAF AD actively engaging RUF Shahed UAVs (21 destroyed). Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from recent strikes. Internal security issue with street shooting. RUF claims elimination of "Romanian mercenaries" in Vilkovo. NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video shows emergency response at a damaged 21-story building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• RF Territory: RUF AD claims numerous UAV interceptions (8 by MoD, 44 by WarGonzo) over Bryansk, Oryol, and Crimea. Fires at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea confirm successful UAF strikes. Internal security measures being implemented (blocking accounts of "sabotage suspects," crackdowns on "extremists"). Continued appeals for donations for military equipment (African Corps, VDV drones). Reports of internal military discipline issues (Kadyrovites vs. Military Police, deserters, alleged AWOL designations for fallen soldiers). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF deep strike effectiveness; HIGH - on RUF internal issues).

  • RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports Kadyrovites beat a military police officer in Belgorod Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO also reports Kadyrovites beat a military police officer in BNR (Belgorod). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of the beating incident, confirming the event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video claiming a deceased Ukrainian POW, identifying him as "Goncharuk Dmitry Alexandrovich". This is likely RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim and video existence, LOW - on veracity without independent verification).
  • RUF MoD Russia video shows forces clearing a treeline and finding a stash of Western-made arms in Vostok Group of Forces AOR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, MEDIUM on veracity).
  • UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source reporting on RUF) provides video of a Russian soldier complaining about "lawlessness" and commanders being 5-10 km from the front line, preferring 100 casualties over one shot. This indicates significant morale and leadership issues within RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reiterates finding Western arms caches on the Southern Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Воин DV" claims 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of 29th Army is in Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), stating complete liberation of the interfluve is hours away. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, MEDIUM on veracity).
  • UAF General Staff (06:00, 28.06.25) provides an operational update, confirming the Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest with 41 enemy assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF General Staff (03:57:34Z) estimates 1000 Russian personnel "minused" and 4 aircraft destroyed in the last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Colonelcassad (RUF) claims a successful FPV drone strike on a UAF 2S1 self-propelled artillery gun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, MEDIUM on veracity).
  • Олександр Вілкул (Kryvyi Rih Mayor) confirms "KRYVYI RIH. AS OF MORNING 28.06.25 SITUATION CONTROLLED." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул also provides photo messages on the modernization of heating systems, indicating civilian infrastructure work in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" reports on the capture/elimination of a Ukrainian female "Wagner" mercenary ("orc"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a tactical map for the Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a propaganda video titled "Heroes of SVO. Wanderer. Part Two," depicting soldiers, civilian interactions, destruction, and graves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Старше Эдды" also refers to citizenship for 25k rubles and temporary residence permits for 18k rubles, suggesting a simplified path for new Russian citizens, potentially for occupied territories or new recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard is fundraising for equipment restoration, highlighting materiel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗ" reports "Wild Division of Donbas" named a combat vehicle after their channel, indicating morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • ASTRA reports RUF military personnel looted a house in occupied Horlivka (lawnmower, multicooker, heaters). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Fighterbomber" video likely shows internal RUF security forces or military police interaction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Polish President Duda's arrival in Kyiv confirmed by UAF sources, and awarded the Order of Liberty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts photo of Zelenskyy awarding Duda the Order of Liberty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • TASS reports the 214th Separate Assault Battalion of AFU (US-trained) was transferred from DNR to Sumy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity).
  • Colonelcassad posts a large series of images with a prominent "SEVERNY VETER" (Northern Wind) logo, titled "They chose death: list of destroyed Ukrainian occupiers." This is an IO effort to demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on IO, LOW - on veracity of specific claims).
  • Colonelcassad posts video of TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) and police officers attempting to detain a man in Rivne Oblast, with local residents intervening. This suggests continued domestic challenges with mobilization efforts in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Военкор Котенок" requests donations for transport vehicles for frontline units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a series of photos of a cat, captioned "Let's dilute the feed with fluffy cuteness." This is an example of morale/humanization content within RUF channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Игорь Артамонов" (Bryansk Governor) posts video on youth valuing friendship, a civilian-focused morale/IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • TASS reports Alexander Novak (RF Vice PM) states Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant's first power unit is expected to be commissioned within a year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance, but indicates long-term energy strategy/economic activity).
  • New Message Analysis:
    • RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" [Video/Photo] shows tactical gear, likely for personal defense or outdoor activities. No direct military operation shown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on content, LOW on military relevance). NEW: RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts fundraising appeal for "marathon of hundreds." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued reliance on donations.
    • UAF "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" [Video] shows a woman in Russian military uniform discussing a legal dispute over property and pension, expressing dissatisfaction with court decisions. This indicates internal social issues within RF military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" [Photo message] displays a kill/demobilization list of RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Старше Эдды" [Text] discusses issue of soldiers being designated AWOL (СОЧ) even when killed or captured to avoid benefits, and how this is being discussed internally and via a "Писаря из спецназа" (Writer from Special Forces) comment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on the existence of the issue/discussion, MEDIUM on its prevalence). This is a very significant internal morale and logistics issue.
    • RUF "Филолог в засаде" [Text] echoes the "СОЧ" issue, suggesting it's not a normal crime but a deeper problem. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Reinforces the above. NEW: RUF "Филолог в засаде" appeals for donations for materials for "Ceh 77." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "Рыбарь" text discusses the challenge of addressing "criminal migrant garbage" at a market in Voronezh, implying a significant internal security and legal issue, and linking it to diplomatic friction with Azerbaijan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts photos claiming a "new munition for strikes on rear areas," which is RUF IO about FAB/UMPK development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" reports on "Fires near Dnipro," which implies RUF action or IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" [Photo message] discusses upcoming elections in Kyrgyzstan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, LOW military relevance).
    • New RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows Vladimir Putin addressing young people, implying a focus on youth engagement and patriotic education. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "AV БогомаZ" posts multiple photos and videos from a religious event, including clergy, emphasizing "Orthodox faith always united our Slavic peoples." This is a clear IO effort to foster national and religious unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" reports on field meetings with families of missing and captured military personnel in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian consequences of the war and support affected families.
    • New UAF "Офіс Генерального прокурора" states "Justice is about daily work," implying a continued focus on legal processes and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • New RUF "WarGonzo" photo dump with the caption "Korea #6. Kids, golf, and tanks instead of Snickers" (repeated numerous times) and a photo of a man kneeling at a grave. This is likely a highly unusual and possibly chaotic RUF IO attempt to associate North Korea with a positive, nationalist image ("tanks instead of Snickers") and juxtapose it with somber imagery, possibly to highlight sacrifice. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on the bizarre IO, LOW on its effectiveness). NEW: RUF "WarGonzo" [Video] shows a forum for "Patriots of Ural" in Yekaterinburg addressing psychological support for veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a coordinated internal IO effort by RUF.
    • NEW: RUF "Два майора" shares a video of a Russian soldier commenting on political and historical topics related to Ukraine, serving as a propaganda piece. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Глеб Никитин" photos show a civilian meeting on demographic and family policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, LOW military relevance).
    • NEW: RUF "ASTRA" reports German Air Force intercepted a Russian military intelligence aircraft over the Baltic Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates ongoing Russian ISR operations near NATO territory.
    • NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" reports Iran will no longer allow IAEA inspections. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" [Video] shows a reconnaissance unit operating in the field. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports Pope Leo XIV wrote an appeal in Ukrainian, sharing the pain of war victims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates religious support for Ukraine.
    • NEW: RUF "Alex Parker Returns" [Photo message] displays bizarre IO regarding Putin and aliens. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on IO, LOW on veracity).

• Friendly Forces (UAF DSHV): Multiple photo messages from "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) with the caption "Тактичне залагодження перед бойовим виходом." (Tactical coordination before combat sortie). Images show groups of Ukrainian soldiers in full combat gear, possibly in a wooded or rural area, engaged in what appears to be pre-deployment training or preparation. Soldiers are equipped with modern rifles, helmets, body armor, and some have camouflage nets or ghillie suits. The images convey a sense of professionalism, readiness, and unit cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Key Changes from Previous Reports

• Confirmed RUF Capture of Chervona Zirka: RUF MoD's official confirmation of Chervona Zirka's "liberation" indicates consolidated control, a significant claim in the Velyka Novosilka-Chervona Zirka area. This is further reinforced by new RUF video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SBU Confirms Successful Strike on Kirovskoye Airfield (Crimea): New reports from UAF SBU and other UAF sources confirm successful deep strikes on Kirovskoye Airfield, destroying a Pantsir-S1 AD system and three helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-26, Mi-28). This indicates a significant UAF success in degrading RUF air assets and air defense in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Mass Return of T-62 Tanks: GUR MO reporting indicates RUF is bringing obsolete T-62 tanks back into service, strongly suggesting increased materiel strain and a depletion of more modern armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Specific RUF Claims of Lithium Deposit Capture: RUF continues to emphasize the capture of lithium deposits, indicating a strategic resource objective and corresponding IO amplification. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Targeting of RUF Motorcyclist Assaults: UAF drone operators "Hostri Kartuzy" (Sharp Caps) demonstrating successful interdiction of RUF motorcyclist attacks near Pokrovsk indicates specific adaptation to RUF tactical changes and effective counter-operations. This is further supported by a new UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video and multiple UAF photo messages reinforcing this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF FSB Claims of Sabotage Groups: RUF FSB claims to have neutralized UAF sabotage groups near Dzerzhinsk, indicating continued UAF special operations within occupied territories and RUF counter-intelligence efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity).
• False Alarm on KAB Strike on Dnipro Confirmed & Clarified: UAF Air Force explicitly denied reports of a KAB strike on Dnipro, clarifying earlier RUF claims. The Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA has confirmed the explosion was due to UAF AD intercepting a "newest Grom-1 missile-bomb." This indicates effective UAF AD and successful counter-disinformation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Drone Loitering over Chuhuiv: RUF publishing footage of their drone operating unhindered over Chuhuiv industrial zone to correct strikes indicates a potential UAF air defense gap or localized saturation on the Kharkiv axis. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Children Injured by UXO/Mine in Kharkiv Oblast and Civilian Casualty in Zaporizhzhia: New reports highlight the continued danger to civilians from unexploded ordnance and RUF attacks in frontline areas, including a 16-year-old girl wounded by an FPV drone strike in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF GUR Drone Attacks on Bryansk: Confirmed UAF GUR drone attacks on military facilities in Bryansk on Ukraine's Constitution Day, indicating continued deep strikes into RF territory. This is further reinforced by multiple UAF sources and video showing smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Acknowledgment of Drone Interceptions in DPR: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" explicitly claims successful interception of "heavy enemy drones" on the western borders of DPR, indicating active air-to-air drone engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity of "all shot down").
• RUF Internal Corruption in Kharkiv Alleged: UAF Prosecutor General's Office reports exposing a criminal organization led by a former Kharkiv deputy mayor for embezzlement of fortification funds. This indicates internal challenges for UAF and potential vulnerabilities in their defense infrastructure development. This is further reinforced by new RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Prisoner Captures in Donetsk: Video of two Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian drones on the Donetsk direction highlights UAF's effective use of non-lethal means to gain prisoners, which is valuable for intelligence. NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" confirms additional prisoner taking on the Toretsk direction. NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows additional prisoners from the 132nd Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Continued Diplomatic Engagement: Polish President Duda's visit and meeting with Zelensky, and Starmer's meeting with Zelensky, confirm continued high-level international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Aircraft Factory Expansion: Satellite imagery indicating the expansion of an aircraft factory in Kazan suggests Russia's intent to increase military aircraft production, a long-term strategic development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Serviceman's Account of Illegal Detention/Forced Return: New reporting from ASTRA, including video, of a Russian serviceman complaining of being illegally detained and forced back to the front despite injuries, indicates continued problematic RUF personnel management and potentially forced deployments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Internal Discipline Deterioration (Kadyrovites vs. VAI): New video from RUF sources explicitly showing Kadyrovite forces beating Russian military police confirms ongoing and significant internal discipline issues within RUF, potentially impacting unit cohesion and morale. This is further commented on by RUF "Военкор Котенок." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Development of Mobile Counter-UAV Systems: New video from Colonelcassad showing mobile pickup trucks with GShG machine guns for anti-drone operations indicates RUF adaptation to the persistent UAV threat. This is further reinforced by new RUF "Два майора" video showing modified military vehicles with anti-drone cages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Soldier Morale Issues: New video from UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" showing a Russian soldier expressing dismay over being overlooked by comrades further supports previous reports of low morale and poor unit cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Reliance on Volunteer Funding for Specific Equipment: New requests for Mavic 3T/Pro drones and communication equipment from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (including foreign volunteers) further highlights the ongoing materiel shortfalls for RUF frontline units and reliance on public donations. NEW: RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a new fundraising appeal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian Flag Raised in Occupied Kherson: UAF "РБК-Україна" reporting on the 34th Marine Brigade raising the Ukrainian flag over occupied Kherson region for Constitution Day is a significant symbolic victory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Soldier AWOL/Loss of Status Issues: New reports from RUF channels (Старше Эдды, Филолог в засаде) on soldiers being designated "СОЧ" (AWOL) even when killed or captured, to avoid benefits, are significant. This practice, if widespread, indicates systemic issues with RUF personnel management, accountability, and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on reports of the issue, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on prevalence of the practice). This adds to the picture of internal RUF instability.
• UAF Artillery Modernization: New video from UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" demonstrating BAE Systems integrating a German 155mm gun onto the M109 howitzer highlights continued Western support for modernizing UAF artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Success against RUF EW Systems: New video from UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" showing SBU special forces destroying a Russian R-934 EW system indicates UAF capability to directly target RUF EW assets, a critical development for UAF ISR and drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" confirms an EW station was destroyed by FPV drones of the "Omega Wings" special forces unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal RF Security and Diplomatic Friction: RUF "Рыбарь" highlights significant internal security issues in Voronezh regarding "criminal migrant garbage" and links it to diplomatic friction with Azerbaijan. This suggests internal RF challenges and potential regional instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: ASTRA reports Azerbaijan accuses Moscow of murders amidst a raid on Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, which Russia denies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a direct diplomatic escalation.
• Sensitivity around Polish Flag: The "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" photo highlighting an "Armia Krajowa" flag during Duda's visit indicates potential for RUF IO exploitation of sensitive historical issues between Ukraine and Poland. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• New RUF Claim of Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) "Liberation": This is a new, significant, and unconfirmed RUF territorial claim implying penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity). NEW: This claim is reinforced by "Старше Эдды." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO).
• Confirmed Use of TOS-1A in Vovchansk: New RUF video confirms the continued and heavy deployment of TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher systems in Vovchansk, indicating ongoing devastation in urban combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Confirmation of "Atlas" Oil Depot Strike Impact: Satellite imagery confirms the destruction of one fuel tank and damage to two others at the "Atlas" oil depot from a 23 JUN UAF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Targeting of UAF Drone Control Points: New RUF video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point with an LMUR highlights RUF's ongoing efforts to counter UAF drone operations by targeting their C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity).
• RUF Ground/Drone Activity in Sumy Border Region: New RUF video implying successful strikes against UAF vehicles/strongpoints near Pysarivka and Khoten indicates continued RUF activity and possible cross-border drone/ground operations in the Sumy region, despite UAF claims of stabilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity of RUF attribution).
• RUF Adaptation of Civilian Vehicles for Frontline Use: New video shows Pacific Fleet Marines converting a civilian buggy into a "frontline buggy" with anti-drone equipment, highlighting RUF's continued reliance on improvisation and adaptation of civilian resources for military roles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Efforts for Missing/POW Families: The Kharkiv Oblast Coordination Staff's meetings with families of missing and captured military personnel underline the ongoing humanitarian aspect of the conflict and UAF's commitment to supporting these families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UAF "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" video claims a Ukrainian MiG-29 destroyed a Russian battalion command post in Nesterianka, which, if confirmed, would be a significant precision strike capability demonstrated by UAF air force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF claim and video, MEDIUM on specific target identification and platform).
• NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts photos claiming a "new munition for strikes on rear areas," which is RUF IO highlighting continued development/deployment of extended range glide bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO, LOW on "newest").
• NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows aerial footage of strikes on hangars/buildings in the Zaporizhzhia direction, implying active RUF targeting of UAF logistical/storage points. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity of target type).
• NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video shows emergency services responding to an incident at a 21-story building in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" video claims the 3rd Assault Brigade destroyed a rare RUF ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tank, BMP, mortar, Ural truck, 'bukhanka', and infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier near a tanker. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows Ukrainian forces capturing multiple prisoners from the RUF 132nd Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" video claims destruction of a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 34th Separate Brigade of the Naval Infantry (OBRBO VSU) in Kherson using an X-35 missile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim and video, MEDIUM on veracity/target).
• NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports Germany's Ministry of Defense has "lost" 1 billion Euros in aid for Ukraine, though it cites "co-financing" that will be returned by the European Peace Fund. This suggests an administrative issue rather than a true loss of funds. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on the report, MEDIUM on the actual impact of the "loss").
• NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) video shows Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stating he has no reason to meet with Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF "ASTRA" reports German Air Force intercepted a Russian military intelligence aircraft over the Baltic Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF "Два майора" video shows motivation speeches under FABs with UMPKs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" reports Iran will no longer allow IAEA inspections. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: TASS reports Tatiana Kim is the only Russian woman in Forbes' top 50 richest women. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, LOW military relevance).
• NEW: TASS is countering fake news about Russian military personnel not receiving awards or medical aid after "Stream" operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Forces: RUF continues to demonstrate substantial offensive capability, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Toretsk axis, leveraging numerical superiority (111,000 personnel on Pokrovsk axis). They are employing combined arms tactics with assault detachments, supported by significant artillery and FPV drone assets. They are capable of rapid, localized breakthroughs as seen in Donetsk. Internal reporting from a RUF soldier highlights continued willingness to accept high casualties for limited gains. Demining efforts in Krasny Liman direction indicate ongoing engineer support for advances. The mass return of T-62 tanks suggests a capability to field large numbers of armored vehicles, albeit older models, which can still provide mobile fire support. Confirmed successful strikes against RUF 'Msta' howitzer and personnel by UAF. UAF has successfully struck a ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tank, BMP, and trucks, demonstrating their capability to target RUF armored vehicles and air defense. RUF continues to use heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). RUF is also deploying mobile anti-drone platforms with heavy machine guns. New video confirms heavy use of TOS-1A in Vovchansk. RUF is also adapting civilian vehicles for frontline use (e.g., "frontline buggy"). RUF "Воин DV" shows effective FPV drone strikes against UAF vehicles (Senator APC). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Assets: Sustained use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) and Shahed-131/136 UAVs for deep strikes and suppression across Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa Oblasts. The high volume of strikes (e.g., 363 drones in one night) indicates significant production and deployment capacity. Continued use of Ka-52 attack helicopters for close air support. RUF drone observed loitering over Chuhuiv, suggesting localized air superiority for ISR and targeting. RUF claims to be extending the range of UMPK (guided bomb kits) up to 120km, potentially increasing the standoff capabilities of their tactical aviation. The expansion of the Kazan aircraft factory points to an an intent to increase future aircraft production. RUF is actively targeting UAF drone C2 with LMUR missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated effectiveness in degrading Ukrainian UAV operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" type