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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-06-28 10:22:19Z
9 hours ago
Previous (2025-06-28 09:52:11Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 281021Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF claims include the capture of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, and breakthroughs on the outskirts of Pokrovsk towards Belhiyka, with the T0406 highway reportedly under RUF fire control. RUF also claims entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka) in the Velyka Novosilka - Chervona Zirka area, suggesting recent RUF presence/control in the interfluve. RUF MoD officially confirmed "liberation" of Chervona Zirka. UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours and 38 attacks today. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk, including an "unsuccessful attack by motorcyclists." Interrogation of a captured Chinese mercenary from RUF's 102nd Regiment, 150th Division, near Toretsk, is confirmed. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near". RUF "WarGonzo" posts "special report" on 4th Brigade operations towards Konstantinovka and Dyleevka, showing ground movement, tactical discussions, and drone footage. RUF FPV drone strike on a UAF 2S1 self-propelled artillery gun confirmed by Colonelcassad. RUF "Воин DV" claims the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army is now in Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), stating complete liberation of the interfluve is hours away. Video shows drone footage of destroyed/damaged buildings with Russian flags superimposed.

    • UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports elimination of two RUF personnel and shows aerial footage of a RUF soldier killed by a strike in Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" releases video of captured Russian soldiers (Ivan Khamgushiev and Rustem Samiev) admitting to engaging UAF positions and being treated well. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "РБК-Україна" (likely UAF source quoting RUF) reports RF employing "meat assaults" near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, quoting ЦПД. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Два майора" refers to a "casualty card" in a weekly column, indicating RUF is tracking casualties internally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Народная милиция ДНР" posts video claiming to show "heavy drone 'Baba Yaga' VSU" (likely a UAF heavy drone) conducting reconnaissance/attack, with Russian unit insignia overlaid, suggesting capture/repurpose or IO. It claims RUF aviation "swept away" UAF positions near Popiv Yar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim and video existence, LOW - on authenticity of RUF claim of UAF drone/action). NEW: "Народная милиция ДНР" posts video claiming "Destruction of a Ukrainian Armed Forces militant by a 132nd Brigade UAV crew" showing an FPV drone strike on a vehicle, with Russian emblem and "Ukrainian combatant" overlay. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video, MEDIUM - on accurate attribution/target).
    • RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts photo/video from Velyka Novosilka - Chervona Zirka area, showing drone footage of damaged buildings with Russian flags, suggesting recent RUF presence/control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on content, MEDIUM - on veracity of control). NEW: "Сливочный каприз" posts a bar/line chart and a table titled "Tempo of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in the SVO zone" and "Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, km² per day," claiming sustained RUF advances from July 2023 to July 2024. This is RUF self-reported data for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF IO, LOW - on objective veracity of km² data).
    • Air Force of AFU reports RUF tactical aviation launching KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: "Fighterbomber" (RUF) posts thermal/night vision aerial footage of an explosion in a wooded area, claiming "Today the best one neatly worked with four UMPK FAB-500-PD on a Ukrainian Armed Forces strongpoint." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video existence and RUF claim, MEDIUM - on specific location/impact).
    • UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" reports destruction of a Russian 'Msta' self-propelled howitzer and two occupiers by 3rd Separate Tank Iron Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України" reports successful drone strikes on enemy UAV operators and positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Воин DV" shows video of successful FPV drone strikes against multiple RUF vehicles, including armored personnel carriers and trucks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video content, but contradicts RUF narrative, likely UAF success misattributed by sender).
    • NEW: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage showing successful strikes on various RUF targets, including a ZSU-23-4 Shilka anti-aircraft vehicle, a tank, a BMP, a mortar, a Ural truck, and a 'bukhanka' vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

  • Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Lypove, Shyykivka, Novoserhiyivka, Ridkodub, Torske and towards Hluschenkove, Hrekivka, Shandryholove, Novyi Myr). RUF claims continue regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR."

    • RUF MoD Russia video shows servicemen of a separate combat engineer battalion (Zapad Group of Forces) continuing demining roads in the Krasny Liman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Mash на Донбассе" reports 4 people died in a minibus accident on a highway in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance, but indicates civilian presence in active conflict zone).

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): Death toll from missile attack on Dnipro increased to 22 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Iskander strikes reportedly destroyed workshops of the Dnipropetrovsk Pipe Plant. Days of mourning declared in Samara. New explosion reported in Dnipro. UAF Air Force reports a KAB course on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, originating from Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Alex Parker Returns" claims Dnipropetrovsk was attacked with "jet iron" (likely referring to guided aerial bombs, FAB/KABs) for the first time, traveling over 100km. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports a Russian KAB flew "almost to Dnipro." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity of "first time"). UAF Air Force and "Оперативний ЗСУ" deny reports of a KAB strike on Dnipro, indicating these were false alarms or RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

    • NEW: UAF "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" (Serhiy Lysak, Dnipropetrovsk OVA Head) confirms "The explosion heard in the Dnipro suburb is the work of our air defense." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "Near Dnipro, air defense shot down the newest Grom-1 missile-bomb," citing Lysak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Alex Parker Returns" posts video of a Su-34 and a munition, claiming the "cast iron that attacked Dnipropetrovsk was without a jet engine. This is a new UMPK, which in the future will increase the flight range of cast iron up to 200 km. Currently, good Russian people have managed to bring the range up to 120 km." This is an RUF claim to demonstrate increased range of guided bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim and IO, LOW - on veracity of "newest" and implied precision, MEDIUM - on potential for increased range for some UMPK variants).
    • NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports "Air Force commented on the 'KAB attack on Dnipro'," likely referring to the denial. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

  • Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states the advance of Russian troops in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. RUF sources, however, continue to claim offensive operations and significant advances (up to 14 km from the border, and pushing UAF "elite" back from Yunakivka). UAF General Staff reports repelling 17 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions.

    • TASS reports RUF AD shot down 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Oryol, Bryansk, and Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports three aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Another message from AV БогомаZ confirms an additional two aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA reports 13 UAVs shot down over RF and Crimea this morning by RUF MoD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA reports a power substation is burning after a UAV attack in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast. Video shows significant smoke and fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts thermal footage claiming "The enemy again throws heavy equipment to its doom on the Glushkovo direction - Northerners repel the attack, destroying occupiers and armored vehicles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim/video, LOW - on veracity of enemy losses).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk on Ukraine's Constitution Day, - sources." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF claim).

  • Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Okhrimivka, Dovhenke) and ground clashes near Vovchansk (including Fyholivka and towards Petro-Ivanivka) and Kupyansk (near Pischane, Kindrashivka and towards Novoplatonivka and Petropavlivka). RUF claims of taking Novaya Kurglyakovka in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF reports continued demining efforts. Two children injured due to an explosion in Stavysche, Shevchenkivska Hromada.

    • UAF "Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА" posts a graphic celebrating Constitution Day, indicating leadership engagement, and "systemic cooperation with the volunteer community." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports on 3rd Assault Brigade showing Russian prisoners of war working on the reconstruction of Izium. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports RUF drone freely operated over Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, correcting strike on industrial zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video titled "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 27-28 June 2025," showing large fires/explosions, specifically citing "News Odesa" watermark, but context suggests it is likely from prior Odesa strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video existence, LOW - on direct correlation to 27-28 June strikes based solely on this video, MEDIUM - on RUF intent to show widespread destruction).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "In Kharkiv region, two children were blown up by an unknown object." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is likely a result of UXO or mine contamination.

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF continues to report heavy shelling and some RUF advances. UAF 65th Separate Motorized Brigade reports eliminating two RUF personnel in Zaporizhzhia direction.

    • UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launching KABs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New report confirms repeated KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shows video of awards being presented to families of fallen soldiers for Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Air raid alert ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports "As a result of enemy attack, a child was wounded." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "STERNENKO" posts drone footage of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming "Another train was hit in Zaporizhzhia!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on video, MEDIUM - on specific target hit).

  • Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF claims UAF is setting forest fires for tactical purposes. UAF General Staff reports repelling 2 Russian army assaults.

    • No significant changes or new reports in this reporting period beyond UAF repelled assaults.

  • Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. Multiple Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD. Localized street shooting reported in Odesa's Soborna Square, with one casualty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

    • STERNENKO reports the identities of the deceased civilians in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA confirms a teacher and her husband died in Odesa as a result of the Russian multi-story building attack, citing the mayor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

  • Kyiv Oblast: Ballistic missile threat in Kyiv Oblast has ended. UAF confirms celebrating Constitution Day.

    • UAF "Олексій Білошицький" posts video montage celebrating Constitution Day, featuring military and police personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a music video about "For Ukraine!", emphasizing the fight for freedom. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports on new dog ownership rules in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates civilian life continues). UAF "РБК-Україна" releases video on the storage of Ukraine's Constitution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports "LIVE. Constitution Day of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Zelenskiy / Official also reports "LIVE. Constitution Day of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

  • Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports - new):

    • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Ivano-Daryivka.
    • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Markove, Predtechyne and towards Bila Hora.
    • Toretsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Yablunivka, Dyliyivka, Pleschiyivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Rusyn Yar, towards Scherbynivka, Novospaske.
    • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Shevchenko, Fedorivka and towards Zaporizhzhya, Myrne, Perebudova, Yalty and Komar.

  • RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 8 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Oryol, Bryansk Oblasts and Crimea. RUF "Военкор Котенок" claims 44 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were shot down overnight and this morning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Ongoing forest fires in Transbaikalia and Kherson Oblast potentially impacting logistics. Arrests in Armenia of Archbishop Mikael continue to be reported. Large fires erupted at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea following overnight explosions.

    • RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports three aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on "Mass burials in Iran," likely for IO purposes to draw parallels or distract. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA reports 13 UAVs shot down over RF and Crimea this morning by RUF MoD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA reports a power substation is burning after a UAV attack in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA reports a conscript died in Bryansk Oblast three days before demobilization while unloading a KAMAZ truck with asphalt. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Новости Москвы" reports cold weather is approaching Moscow. (LOW CONFIDENCE). NEW: "Новости Москвы" posts photos of mushrooms, likely unrelated to military context, indicating a focus on civilian life/propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on content).
    • TASS reports at least 13 killed and 29 wounded due to a suicide bomber attack in Northwest Pakistan, and 4 Russian citizens (including 2 children) died in a car accident near Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on TASS reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance to Ukraine).
    • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims Ukrainian TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) are using thermal-imaging UAVs to find men hiding in houses, citing pro-Russian underground in Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity).
    • RUF "Басурин о главном" posts video of Putin congratulating school graduates, a likely morale/IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports "GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk on Ukraine's Constitution Day, - sources." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on UAF claim).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Continued Fire Hazards: Large forest fires persist in Transbaikalia, Russia, impacting railway lines, and forest fires are also reported in Kherson Oblast, with RUF claiming UAF forces are intentionally setting them. These conditions indicate persistent dry weather in some regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Post-Strike Environmental Impacts: Firefighters and emergency services continue to respond to building fires in Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast) and Odesa, indicating significant localized environmental impact from RUF strikes. A power substation fire in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast, caused by a UAV attack, indicates localized environmental and infrastructure damage. Significant fires at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea after explosions indicate substantial damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Conditions: Previous reports of strong winds and rains returning for the weekend across Ukraine may impact ground and air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides a photo message indicating smoke and heat in a forested area on the Kupyansk direction, suggesting ongoing fire concerns impacting military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF forces are heavily concentrated on the Pokrovsk axis (estimated 111,000 personnel), conducting sustained assaults and claiming tactical gains, including control of key settlements and the T0406 highway. UAF is holding defensive lines and inflicting heavy casualties, as evidenced by successful drone strikes and captured personnel. RUF is also focusing on Chasiv Yar, with intense preparatory bombardment.
    • RUF: Continued offensive operations with main effort on Pokrovsk. Employing combined arms assaults supported by heavy artillery, FABs, and FPV drones. Claimed captures of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Belhiyka (outskirts), and entry into Udachne, and Chervona Zirka (confirmed liberated by RUF MoD). Increased use of ISR drones and special forces (14th Guards Brigade, 30th Separate Company). Logistics appear strained but functional, evidenced by reliance on FPV drone funding appeals. Internal discipline issues with Kadyrovite forces reported (beating military police). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms Syrskyi's assessment of 111,000 RUF personnel on Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shares a video of a ballistic vest test, indicating internal materiel development/propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "MoD Russia" video shows T-72B3 tank training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" shows logistics training (loading supplies) and training with military vehicles and firearms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD is mass returning T-62 tanks to service, indicating materiel strain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF FSB claims to have uncovered UAF sabotage groups near Dzerzhinsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity).
    • UAF: Actively defending and repelling numerous assaults (41 in Pokrovsk direction in last 24h). Employing FPV drones for counter-battery and personnel elimination, including successful strikes against RUF motorcyclists. Conducting limited counter-attacks. Capturing RUF personnel (including a Chinese mercenary). Maintaining C2 and overall force integrity despite intense pressure. National Guard units (Rubizh brigade) are appealing for funds due to materiel losses, indicating resource constraints. Celebration of Constitution Day for morale. UAF "STERNENKO" reports procurement of +370 FPV drones in the last 24 hours via donations, indicating significant civilian support for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video titled "Successful hunt of special forces on enemy evil spirits," implying tactical successes and receiving REB equipment from supporters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force displays F-16s with missiles and personnel for Constitution Day, demonstrating readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff video shows soldiers in trenches and operating vehicles, celebrating Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»" posts a graphic celebrating Constitution Day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sumy Oblast: RUF claims significant pushes (14km from border) and high UAF casualties in Yunakivka, contradicting UAF reports of stabilization. UAF confirms active air defense engagement against RUF UAVs and guided aerial bombs, repelling 17 assaults in Kursk and Sumy directions.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: RUF tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs (Okhrimivka, Dovhenke). RUF ISR claims identification of GUR facility near KhTZ. UAF continues demining and reports successful strikes against RUF vehicles. Local authorities (Oleg Synegubov) report "systemic cooperation with the volunteer community" for support.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske. RUF artillery active near Huliaipole. UAF reports continued heavy shelling and UAV attacks on civilian infrastructure. UAF 65th OMBr demonstrates successful elimination of two RUF personnel.
  • Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF maintain positional presence. UAF 40th Separate Battalion of Marine Corps engaged RUF on the left bank of the Dnipro. RUF 49th Army active on the right bank. RUF claims UAF is setting forest fires. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video where UAF forces reportedly admit to burning down their own citizens' homes for tactical purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity). UAF General Staff reports repelling 2 Russian army assaults.
  • Odesa Oblast: UAF AD actively engaging RUF Shahed UAVs (21 destroyed). Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from recent strikes. Internal security issue with street shooting. RUF claims elimination of "Romanian mercenaries" in Vilkovo.
  • RF Territory: RUF AD claims numerous UAV interceptions (8 by MoD, 44 by WarGonzo) over Bryansk, Oryol, and Crimea. Fires at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea confirm successful UAF strikes. Internal security measures being implemented (blocking accounts of "sabotage suspects," crackdowns on "extremists"). Continued appeals for donations for military equipment (African Corps, VDV drones). Reports of internal military discipline issues (Kadyrovites vs. Military Police, deserters).
    • RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports Kadyrovites beat a military police officer in Belgorod Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO also reports Kadyrovites beat a military police officer in BNR (Belgorod). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of the beating incident, confirming the event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF MoD Russia video shows forces clearing a treeline and finding a stash of Western-made arms in Vostok Group of Forces AOR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, MEDIUM on veracity).
    • UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source reporting on RUF) provides video of a Russian soldier complaining about "lawlessness" and commanders being 5-10 km from the front line, preferring 100 casualties over one shot. This indicates significant morale and leadership issues within RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reiterates finding Western arms caches on the Southern Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Воин DV" claims 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of 29th Army is in Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), stating complete liberation of the interfluve is hours away. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, MEDIUM on veracity).
    • UAF General Staff (06:00, 28.06.25) provides an operational update, confirming the Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest with 41 enemy assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF General Staff (03:57:34Z) estimates 1000 Russian personnel "minused" and 4 aircraft destroyed in the last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Colonelcassad (RUF) claims a successful FPV drone strike on a UAF 2S1 self-propelled artillery gun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, MEDIUM on veracity).
    • Олександр Вілкул (Kryvyi Rih Mayor) confirms "KRYVYI RIH. AS OF MORNING 28.06.25 SITUATION CONTROLLED." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул also provides photo messages on the modernization of heating systems, indicating civilian infrastructure work in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" reports on the capture/elimination of a Ukrainian female "Wagner" mercenary ("orc"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a tactical map for the Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a propaganda video titled "Heroes of SVO. Wanderer. Part Two," depicting soldiers, civilian interactions, destruction, and graves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Старше Эдды" also refers to citizenship for 25k rubles and temporary residence permits for 18k rubles, suggesting a simplified path for new Russian citizens, potentially for occupied territories or new recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF "РБК-Україна" reports the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard is fundraising for equipment restoration, highlighting materiel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗ" reports "Wild Division of Donbas" named a combat vehicle after their channel, indicating morale boosting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ASTRA reports RUF military personnel looted a house in occupied Horlivka (lawnmower, multicooker, heaters). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Fighterbomber" video likely shows internal RUF security forces or military police interaction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Polish President Duda's arrival in Kyiv confirmed by UAF sources, and awarded the Order of Liberty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts photo of Zelenskyy awarding Duda the Order of Liberty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "ТАСС" reports the 214th Separate Assault Battalion of AFU (US-trained) was transferred from DNR to Sumy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on RUF claim, LOW - on veracity).
    • Colonelcassad posts a large series of images with a prominent "SEVERNY VETER" (Northern Wind) logo, titled "They chose death: list of destroyed Ukrainian occupiers." This is an IO effort to demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on IO, LOW - on veracity of specific claims).
    • Colonelcassad posts video of TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) and police officers attempting to detain a man in Rivne Oblast, with local residents intervening. This suggests continued domestic challenges with mobilization efforts in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF "Военкор Котенок" requests donations for transport vehicles for frontline units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a series of photos of a cat, captioned "Let's dilute the feed with fluffy cuteness." This is an example of morale/humanization content within RUF channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: RUF "Игорь Артамонов" (Bryansk Governor) posts video on youth valuing friendship, a civilian-focused morale/IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: TASS reports Alexander Novak (RF Vice PM) states Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant's first power unit is expected to be commissioned within a year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on reporting, LOW - on direct military relevance, but indicates long-term energy strategy/economic activity).

1.4. Key Changes from Previous Reports

  • Confirmed RUF Capture of Chervona Zirka: RUF MoD's official confirmation of Chervona Zirka's "liberation" indicates consolidated control, a significant claim in the Velyka Novosilka-Chervona Zirka area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Strikes on Kirovskoye Airfield (Crimea): New reports of significant fires and explosions at this airfield confirm successful UAF deep strikes, impacting RUF air assets or infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Mass Return of T-62 Tanks: GUR MO reporting indicates RUF is bringing obsolete T-62 tanks back into service, strongly suggesting increased materiel strain and a depletion of more modern armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Specific RUF Claims of Lithium Deposit Capture: RUF continues to emphasize the capture of lithium deposits, indicating a strategic resource objective and corresponding IO amplification. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Targeting of RUF Motorcyclist Assaults: UAF drone operators "Hostri Kartuzy" (Sharp Caps) demonstrating successful interdiction of RUF motorcyclist attacks near Pokrovsk indicates specific adaptation to RUF tactical changes and effective counter-operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF FSB Claims of Sabotage Groups: RUF FSB claims to have neutralized UAF sabotage groups near Dzerzhinsk, indicating continued UAF special operations within occupied territories and RUF counter-intelligence efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity).
  • False Alarm on KAB Strike on Dnipro Confirmed & Clarified: UAF Air Force explicitly denied reports of a KAB strike on Dnipro, clarifying earlier RUF claims. The Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA has confirmed the explosion was due to UAF AD intercepting a "newest Grom-1 missile-bomb." This indicates effective UAF AD and successful counter-disinformation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF Drone Loitering over Chuhuiv: RUF publishing footage of their drone operating unhindered over Chuhuiv industrial zone to correct strikes indicates a potential UAF air defense gap or localized saturation on the Kharkiv axis. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Children Injured by UXO/Mine in Kharkiv Oblast and Civilian Casualty in Zaporizhzhia: New reports highlight the continued danger to civilians from unexploded ordnance and RUF attacks in frontline areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF GUR Drone Attacks on Bryansk: Confirmed UAF GUR drone attacks on military facilities in Bryansk on Ukraine's Constitution Day, indicating continued deep strikes into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:
    • Ground Forces: RUF continues to demonstrate substantial offensive capability, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Toretsk axis, leveraging numerical superiority (111,000 personnel on Pokrovsk axis). They are employing combined arms tactics with assault detachments, supported by significant artillery and FPV drone assets. They are capable of rapid, localized breakthroughs as seen in Donetsk. Internal reporting from a RUF soldier highlights continued willingness to accept high casualties for limited gains. Demining efforts in Krasny Liman direction indicate ongoing engineer support for advances. The mass return of T-62 tanks suggests a capability to field large numbers of armored vehicles, albeit older models, which can still provide mobile fire support. Confirmed successful strikes against RUF 'Msta' howitzer and personnel by UAF. UAF has successfully struck a ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tank, BMP, and trucks, demonstrating their capability to target RUF armored vehicles and air defense. RUF continues to use heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Air Assets: Sustained use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) and Shahed-131/136 UAVs for deep strikes and suppression across Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa Oblasts. The high volume of strikes (e.g., 363 drones in one night) indicates significant production and deployment capacity. Continued use of Ka-52 attack helicopters for close air support. RUF drone observed loitering over Chuhuiv, suggesting localized air superiority for ISR and targeting. RUF claims to be extending the range of UMPK (guided bomb kits) up to 120km, potentially increasing the standoff capabilities of their tactical aviation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Electronic Warfare (EW): Demonstrated effectiveness in degrading Ukrainian UAV operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" type UAVs, general activity in Donetsk/Kharkiv). UAF reports successful drone strikes against RUF "enemy UAV operators," indicating UAF counter-EW and counter-drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • ISR: Continued deep reconnaissance, utilizing both manned and unmanned platforms (e.g., identifying alleged GUR facilities, tracking UAF movements, deploying reconnaissance UAVs over Zaporizhzhia). RUF claims to be effectively using heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") for reconnaissance/strike, though this is also used in their IO. RUF video from Chuhuiv indicates effective, unhindered ISR drone operations for strike correction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Information Operations (IO): Highly active, focusing on claiming territorial gains (including rare earth metals), exaggerating UAF losses, portraying UAF as brutal (mine-laying, setting fires, burning homes), and highlighting internal Ukrainian issues (mobilization challenges). Also attempts to show Russian military strength and internal societal normalcy, and draw parallels to international conflicts. Denial of KAB strike on Dnipro by UAF highlights RUF disinformation attempts. RUF also promotes internal statistics claiming sustained advances in km² to bolster morale and present a narrative of success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Intentions:
    • Primary: Seize control of the Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmiisk area and advance towards Kostiantynivka, securing key logistical nodes and further pushing UAF from Donetsk Oblast. The high concentration of forces on the Pokrovsk axis underscores this. Capture of resource-rich areas (e.g., lithium) is a new, emphasized objective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Secondary: Maintain pressure on the Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk (Kharkiv) axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent their redeployment to Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Exploitative: Conduct opportunistic advances where UAF defenses are weakened, as claimed in Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia) and Yalta (DNR). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
    • Strategic Disruption: Degrade Ukrainian military-industrial capacity and morale through widespread missile and drone attacks on rear areas, civilian infrastructure, and population centers, including critical energy infrastructure in RF border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Counter-Insurgency: RUF FSB operations against alleged UAF sabotage groups indicate an intent to suppress internal resistance and maintain control in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Courses of Action (CoAs):
    • CoA 1 (Most Likely): Continue relentless assaults on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough towards Kostiantynivka, while maintaining pressure on Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk to prevent UAF force generation and redeployment. Expect high volume of KABs and FPV drones, and a continued mix of modern and older armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • CoA 2 (Less Likely, but possible): After securing significant gains on Pokrovsk, pivot forces to reinforce efforts on the Chasiv Yar or Kupiansk axis for a renewed large-scale offensive, aiming for a deeper operational breakthrough. This would require substantial logistical repositioning. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • Lithium Deposit Focus: RUF claims of capturing multiple lithium deposits near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko indicate a potential shift in RUF objectives to seize valuable natural resources. This is being actively amplified in RUF IO. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - on the direct tactical impact of this objective, HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the RUF claim and its potential significance).
  • Targeting Logistics Hubs: RUF explicitly highlighting control over the T0406 highway and entering Udachne (a logistics hub) demonstrates an understanding of UAF supply lines and a focused effort to disrupt them. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Discipline Issues: The confirmed incident of Kadyrovite forces beating Russian military police and the video of a disgruntled RUF soldier complaining about ineffective leadership and high casualty tolerance suggests growing internal friction and a potential breakdown of discipline within RUF ranks, which could impact operational cohesion. This has been corroborated by multiple independent sources and video evidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Increased Use of Heavy Drones ("Baba Yaga"): RUF is increasingly using heavy drones for strikes against UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Border Infrastructure Targeting: The confirmed UAV attack on a power substation in Belgorod Oblast suggests UAF is maintaining or increasing pressure on critical infrastructure within RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Reliance on Obsolete Armor: The mass return of T-62 tanks to service suggests RUF is adapting to materiel losses by fielding older, less capable platforms, which may influence their ground maneuver tactics (e.g., using them for fire support rather than leading assaults). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Motorcyclist Assaults: The use of motorcyclists in attacks near Pokrovsk (as targeted by UAF drones) indicates RUF adapting to the highly contested environment by attempting rapid, low-signature infiltration or flanking maneuvers, possibly due to terrain challenges or a lack of light armored vehicles. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Counter-Drone Operations: UAF successful strikes against RUF "UAV operators" indicate specific targeting of enemy drone capabilities and associated personnel, a tactical adaptation to RUF's heavy reliance on drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Advanced UMPK Claims: RUF claims regarding the "newest UMPK" for guided bombs with increased range (up to 120km) suggest an ongoing effort to improve standoff strike capabilities for their air force, potentially enabling them to hit deeper targets with less risk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - on the extent of new capability, HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the RUF claim and intent).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • Personnel: RUF maintains a high force concentration (111,000 on Pokrovsk axis) suggesting effective mobilization and replacement of losses. However, reports of internal discontent (soldiers complaining about commanders, lack of benefits), a conscript's death due to an accident, and reliance on public fundraising for basic equipment (VDV drones, "African Corps," transport vehicles) indicate potential long-term sustainability issues and internal strain. The reported 1000 RUF personnel losses in 24 hours are unsustainable without high replacement rates. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Materiel: RUF continues high-volume artillery and missile/drone strikes, indicating sustained production or supply. Claims of finding Western arms caches suggest opportunistic gains. Reports of forest fires impacting railway lines in Transbaikalia and a UAV strike on a power substation in Belgorod indicate potential for disruptions to strategic logistics and energy supply for military operations. Demining operations in Krasny Liman direction show a commitment to maintaining supply routes. The mass return of T-62 tanks points to significant overall armor losses and a strain on modern equipment production/availability. Evidence of successful UAF strikes on RUF armored vehicles (Msta howitzer, FPV drone strikes on APCs/trucks, ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tank, BMP, trucks) suggests ongoing materiel attrition for RUF. RUF "Военкор Котенок" soliciting donations for transport vehicles indicates ongoing logistical shortfalls for frontline units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security: RF is implementing aggressive measures to control information and suppress dissent (blocking accounts, detaining "foreign agents," prosecuting archbishops), suggesting a proactive effort to prevent internal instability from affecting military sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • RUF: RUF appears to maintain effective operational command and control to coordinate large-scale offensives and combined arms operations, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. However, reports of Kadyrovite insubordination against military police and a RUF soldier's complaint about commanders' distance from the front line and high casualty acceptance suggest a degree of decentralized authority, a lack of unified control over all elements, or significant C2 failures at lower tactical levels, potentially impacting overall discipline and cohesion. The reported uncovering of UAF sabotage groups indicates RUF maintaining counter-intelligence and security C2. The observed free operation of a RUF drone over Chuhuiv to correct strikes could indicate localized UAF air defense C2 failures or RUF success in achieving temporary air superiority for ISR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF: UAF C2 remains effective, enabling coordinated defense, active counter-battery fire, and rapid response to breakthroughs. The reported high rate of repelled assaults and successful interdictions of RUF logistics demonstrate functional C2. Leadership changes within the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief indicate active adaptation and strengthening of the strategic command structure. Successful UAF drone operations against RUF targets, including a howitzer, UAV operators, and various armored/support vehicles, demonstrate effective tactical C2 and coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Overall Posture: Defensive along the main axes, with active resistance and localized counter-attacks. Forces are concentrated to repel the main RUF thrusts, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. The changes in the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief suggest adaptation and strengthening of strategic command. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Readiness: High readiness to repel assaults, with documented effective use of FPV drones, artillery, and air defense. Morale appears high, reinforced by national events (Constitution Day) and captured enemy personnel, including the public display of POWs working on reconstruction. Strong public support for equipment procurement (e.g., FPV drones, REB systems) enhances readiness. However, there are indications of materiel losses and reliance on volunteer support for equipment (e.g., National Guard appeal). Domestic challenges with mobilization continue as evidenced by TCC incidents and convictions for evasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Force Generation: Ukraine is implementing a new basic general military training for students from September 1, 2025, indicating long-term force generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • High Attrition of RUF Personnel: UAF General Staff reports 1000 RUF personnel "minused" in 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Successful Air Defense: Downing of 2 Kalibr missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs over Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and 21 Shahed UAVs in "South" operational zone. New reports confirm 13 RUF UAVs shot down over RF territory and Crimea, and UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports 22/23 enemy UAVs neutralized since morning. Interception of a "Grom-1" missile-bomb near Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Targeted Strikes: Successful FPV drone strike on a RUF 2S1 "Gvozdika" howitzer and its crew; destruction of a rare North Korean MLRS M1991. UAV attack on a power substation in Volokonivka, Belgorod Oblast. Successful strikes leading to large fires at Kirovskoye Airfield in Crimea. Successful interdiction of RUF motorcyclist assault near Pokrovsk. Destruction of RUF Msta howitzer and two personnel by 3rd Separate Tank Iron Brigade. Successful drone strikes against RUF UAV operators and positions by 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade successfully struck a ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tank, BMP, mortar, and transport vehicles. GUR drones attacked military facilities in Bryansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Capture of Chinese Mercenary: Significant for intelligence gathering on foreign fighter involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Stabilization in Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Significant FPV Drone Procurement: STERNENKO reports +370 FPV drones procured in 24 hours via donations, indicating a successful and rapid capability sustainment mechanism through public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Effective Use of POWs in Reconstruction: Displaying Russian POWs working in Izium serves a dual purpose of demonstrating adherence to international law and highlighting the human cost of the invasion through direct involvement in rebuilding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Receipt of REB Equipment: UAF 44th OSB reports receiving multi-channel REB system from supporters, indicating effective civilian-military cooperation for critical equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Setbacks:
    • RUF Territorial Gains: Confirmed RUF capture of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, and claimed advances towards Belhiyka and Udachne on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to potential RUF fire control over the T0406 highway. RUF confirmed capture of Chervona Zirka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Significant casualties and damage in Dnipro (22 dead, new explosions reported), Samara (5 dead, 23 wounded), Chuhuiv (3 wounded), and Odesa (2 dead, 4 injured) from RUF missile and drone strikes. Two children injured in Stavysche, Kharkiv Oblast due to explosion, and one child wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Materiel Losses: National Guard appealing for funds for equipment restoration indicates ongoing materiel attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Domestic Mobilization Challenges: Incidents of local residents intervening against TCC and police in Rivne Oblast, and a conviction of a Kharkiv evader, suggest ongoing friction and challenges in military recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF Drone Operates Unhindered over Chuhuiv: The reported unhindered operation of a RUF drone over Chuhuiv, allowing strike correction, suggests a localized or temporary gap in UAF air defense coverage or effectiveness. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Critical Need for Air Defense: The high volume of RUF missile and drone attacks, particularly Shahed UAVs on Odesa and KABs on Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk, highlights a critical and ongoing need for additional air defense systems and interceptors across all layers (SHORAD, MRAD, LORAD), especially systems capable of countering loitering reconnaissance drones that can correct strikes and advanced guided bombs like "Grom-1". (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Battery Capabilities: Continued requirement for effective counter-battery fire systems to suppress RUF artillery, which remains a primary means of shaping the battlefield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Drones and EW Systems: Ongoing demand for FPV drones for tactical engagements and ISR, as well as EW systems to counter RUF's sophisticated capabilities. While volunteer funding is strong, ensuring a consistent and robust supply chain is critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Humanitarian Aid: Ongoing need for medical supplies and support for civilian populations affected by RUF strikes, particularly in Dnipro and Odesa, and for UXO clearance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Personnel Mobilization Support: While the new high-level military training program is a positive long-term step, immediate efforts are required to streamline and de-escalate domestic mobilization processes to ensure consistent personnel flow to the front without eroding public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Anti-Armor Capabilities: The mass return of T-62 tanks necessitates a continued supply of modern anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and other anti-armor solutions to effectively counter the numerically reinforced, albeit older, RUF armored force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Logistics Interdiction Capabilities: Continued capability to strike RUF logistics nodes, such as the reported train strike in Tokmak, is vital to disrupt RUF supply lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RUF Narrative:
    • Victory & Liberation: Continues to heavily emphasize territorial gains ("liberation" of villages, control of lithium deposits), portraying their forces as unstoppable. Claims about capturing rare-earth metal deposits (attributed to NYT) are being widely disseminated. New claims of "liberating" Chervona Zirka (confirmed by MoD). The denial of a KAB strike on Dnipro by UAF suggests RUF is also disseminating false claims of successful strikes to amplify perceived capabilities. RUF is promoting internal statistics claiming sustained advances in km² to present a victorious narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF Weakness & Attrition: Exaggerates UAF casualties ("meat grinder"), highlights alleged UAF misconduct (mine-laying impacting civilians, starting forest fires, burning homes, UAF "sabotage groups"), and promotes UAF surrender. Disgruntled soldier video suggests an internal attempt to control narratives around leadership and casualties. RUF claims of TCC using thermal drones to find hiding men in Mykolaiv are an attempt to sow discord and fear about Ukrainian mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Cohesion & Support: Attempts to show public support for the war, showcase training, and celebrate military figures. Efforts to normalize civilian life and offer simplified citizenship/residence permits to boost population figures. Putin's congratulatory message to school graduates is part of this effort to project normalcy and national unity, along with civilian-focused content like mushroom photos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Western Instability/Weakness: Disinformation regarding US military aid to Israel impacting THAAD reserves, and internal US/German political issues. RUF media is also highlighting US resource deals in Africa as a point of perceived Western self-interest. Trump's statements about preventing war between Serbia/Kosovo are being used to highlight US influence and potential for future interventions. New narratives accusing the West of placing "Nazis" into leadership roles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Justification for War: Drawing parallels to WWII and historical narratives of Russian suffering to legitimize current actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Narrative:
    • Resilience & Defense: Emphasizes successful repulsion of RUF assaults, high enemy losses, and continued defense of territory. Specific reporting of RUF casualties (1000 "minused") and destruction of RUF assets (Msta howitzer, UAV operators, vehicles, ZSU-23-4 Shilka, tanks, BMPs, trucks) supports this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • RUF Atrocities: Highlights civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and looting by RUF forces. Reporting on civilian fatalities in Odesa from RUF strikes reinforces this, as do reports of children injured by UXO/RUF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Strength & Unity: Focus on Constitution Day celebrations, government initiatives (economic support, military training, heat system modernization), and President Zelenskyy's leadership. Celebrations of Constitution Day across various UAF/government channels reinforce national unity, including showcasing the preservation of the Constitution document itself. Award ceremonies for fallen soldiers' families highlight national sacrifice and commitment. Zelenskyy's direct address for Constitution Day is a key element of this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Accountability & Justice: Reporting on successful convictions of war criminals and anti-corruption efforts. Also, showcasing Russian POWs working on reconstruction in Izium to demonstrate adherence to international law and rehabilitation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • International Support: Highlighting high-level visits (Polish President Duda's visit and award ceremony). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Counter-Disinformation: Actively and immediately refuting false claims (e.g., KAB strike on Dnipro). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukraine:
    • Resilient but Strained: Public sentiment appears resilient, with strong national unity (Constitution Day celebrations) and continued support for the military (volunteer fundraising, e.g., STERNENKO's FPV drone procurement). However, repeated missile and drone attacks on civilian areas are causing significant distress and casualties, particularly the recent fatal strikes in Odesa and Dnipro. Incidents with TCC indicate some public friction regarding mobilization. The death of a teacher and her husband in Odesa from a RUF strike is likely to fuel public anger and resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Defiant: Graffiti and public statements reflect defiance and a determination to resist. STERNENKO's explicit statement "Russians have no right to life" reflects strong defiant sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Accountability Demands: Continued focus on prosecuting war crimes and corruption indicates public demand for justice and good governance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russia:
    • Controlled but Fragile: Official media portrays a narrative of victory and normalcy (cultural festivals, economic stability claims). However, reports of internal military discontent (soldiers complaining about conditions, Kadyrovite-MP clashes), civilian protests/crackdowns, reliance on public donations, and incidents like the conscript's death suggest underlying strain and potential fragility of public support if not carefully managed. The video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source on RUF) provides significant insight into low morale and resentment towards leadership within RUF ranks, including fear of future conflicts with China, US, and Israel. The public video of Kadyrovite forces beating military police further exposes internal fragmentation and discipline issues. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
    • Economic Pressure: Reports on long-term mortgage burdens and crackdowns on internal "fundraisers" indicate economic pressures are impacting the populace and potentially generating discontent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Discontent: Pro-Kremlin channels continue to make fundraising appeals, indicating a gap in official support for frontline units, which can undermine morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • Ukraine:
    • Continued Western Support: Polish President Duda's visit to Kyiv (including being awarded the Order of Liberty) reaffirms high-level political and material support. Discussions about US potentially sending Patriot missiles indicate ongoing military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Refutation of Disinformation: UAF actively refuting false claims (e.g., Erfurt fire for aid trucks) to maintain credibility with international partners. The clear denial of the KAB strike on Dnipro is an example of UAF actively countering RUF disinformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russia:
    • Diplomatic Openings: Putin's statements about readiness for new negotiations with Kyiv and openness to contacts with Trump signal a potential shift in diplomatic posture, possibly aimed at exploiting perceived Western divisions or war fatigue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Economic Diplomacy: Putin highlighting EAEU economic growth and US businesses wanting to return, aims to project economic resilience and attract investment despite sanctions. New RUF IO narrative around rare-earth metals is an extension of this. Completion of Akkuyu NPP first unit would be a positive economic and diplomatic development for Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Accusations against West: Putin's rhetoric of the West "playing in one goal" and "burying" Russia suggests a continued adversarial stance, even while offering dialogue. New claims that "Nazis" are being purposefully placed in Western leadership roles by the MFA spokesperson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Middle East Focus: RUF media heavily covering the Middle East crisis and Trump's statements on Gaza, potentially for geopolitical leverage or to distract from Ukraine. New claims of Houthi attacks on Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Relations with Belarus: The meeting between Bryansk Governor and Ivan Krupko (likely Belarusian official) to commemorate WWII victims indicates continued close ties and symbolic diplomacy with key allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Continued Focused Offensive in Donetsk: RUF will sustain and potentially intensify its offensive operations on the Pokrovsk-Toretsk axis with the aim of capturing Kostiantynivka and consolidating control over key supply routes, including the T0406 highway. This will involve large-scale infantry assaults, supported by heavy artillery, FABs (potentially with extended range UMPK), FPV drones, and a mix of modern and older armored vehicles (including T-62s), accepting high casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sustained Pressure on Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk: RUF will maintain significant pressure on the Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk sectors to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployment to the Pokrovsk axis. This will likely involve continued air bombardment and localized ground assaults, potentially leveraging unhindered ISR drone flights as seen in Chuhuiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • High Volume Aerial Attacks: RUF will continue to launch high volumes of missiles and Shahed UAVs against Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, and military targets across the country, aiming to deplete UAF air defense resources and degrade morale. Expect continued targeting of RF border regions by UAF UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Warfare Escalation: RUF will increase its disinformation campaigns to portray UAF as weakened and corrupt, while magnifying internal Russian stability and external diplomatic efforts, particularly focusing on economic resource gains (e.g., lithium) and exploiting perceived Western political weaknesses. Expect denial of UAF successes and false claims of RUF victories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Continued Counter-Insurgency Operations: RUF will likely increase efforts to identify and neutralize UAF sabotage groups within occupied territories and potentially escalate claims of UAF infiltration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Decisive Breakthrough and Exploitation on Pokrovsk Axis: RUF forces achieve a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, enabling an operational-level encirclement of significant UAF elements or forcing a rapid, uncoordinated retreat from key defensive lines towards Kostiantynivka. This would be facilitated by overwhelming numerical superiority and effective suppression of UAF artillery and air defense, potentially exacerbated by internal RUF discipline issues being contained or overcome, or UAF domestic mobilization issues impacting front-line resupply. The claimed extended range of guided bombs ("Grom-1" variants, new UMPK) could contribute to this by enhancing deep strike capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Multi-Front Offensive with Strategic Effect: RUF initiates a coordinated, large-scale offensive simultaneously on the Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk axes, coupled with renewed cross-border ground incursions from Sumy Oblast. This would aim to overwhelm UAF's ability to defend simultaneously, stretching reserves thin and potentially forcing a wider strategic retreat across the Donbas. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Targeted Strike on Western Aid Logistics: RUF conducts a successful strategic strike on critical Western military aid logistics nodes outside Ukraine (e.g., transit hubs in Poland or Romania), significantly disrupting the flow of materiel to Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE, but high impact).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Pokrovsk Axis: RUF will likely attempt to consolidate initial gains and push further towards Kostiantynivka within the next 48-72 hours. UAF decision point: when/if RUF consolidates fire control over the T0406 beyond an interdiction threat to a direct ground threat. Continued high casualties for RUF are expected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Chasiv Yar: A major ground assault on Chasiv Yar is likely within the next 24-48 hours, following sustained preparatory bombardment. UAF decision point: deployment of reserves to counter the main assault axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sumy/Kharkiv Border: Continued limited RUF probing actions and IO attempts to exaggerate gains. A significant RUF ground offensive is unlikely in the next 7 days, given stated UAF stabilization and current RUF focus elsewhere. However, continued cross-border shelling and drone activity (including potential UAF strikes into RF territory) are expected, particularly following recent GUR strikes on Bryansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Campaign: High volume of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian rear areas will continue nightly, particularly targeting population centers and industrial facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Crimea Strikes: UAF is likely to continue deep strikes into Crimea, particularly against airfields and logistics hubs, in the next 24-72 hours, leveraging recent successes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. Immediate Tactical Reinforcement for Pokrovsk Axis: Prioritize immediate redeployment of available reserves and fire support assets to the Pokrovsk-Toretsk axis to prevent further RUF breakthroughs and to reinforce defensive lines, particularly around critical logistics nodes like Udachne and the T0406 highway. Prepare for tactics involving massed, less sophisticated armor like T-62s. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  2. Enhanced Counter-Battery and ISR Operations in Donetsk and Kharkiv: Increase FPV drone and artillery reconnaissance-strike operations to aggressively target RUF artillery, command posts, and massed infantry, especially on the Pokrovsk axis. Exploit observed RUF internal discipline issues (e.g., disgruntled soldiers, Kadyrovite clashes) to generate tactical opportunities and further degrade morale. Focus on interdicting RUF "motorcyclist assaults." Address any air defense gaps that allow RUF ISR drones to operate unhindered over frontline towns like Chuhuiv. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  3. Strengthen Air Defense in Rear Areas and Deep Strike Targets: Allocate additional mobile air defense systems to protect critical civilian infrastructure and industrial targets in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa, with a focus on countering Shahed UAVs and KABs (including newer, potentially longer-range variants like "Grom-1"). Bolster AD capabilities in border regions and key rear assets (e.g., airfields) to counter cross-border UAV attacks. Continue offensive deep strike operations against RUF airfields and logistics nodes in occupied territories and RF, leveraging recent successes in Crimea and Bryansk. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  4. Monitor Internal RUF Dynamics and Exploit Weaknesses: Continue to collect granular intelligence on RUF internal discipline, morale, and logistical sustainability, particularly the impact of the return of older armor and personnel losses. Develop and execute targeted psychological operations (PSYOPs) to exploit the identified resentments between frontline soldiers and their commanders, and the friction between different RUF elements (e.g., Kadyrovites vs. military police). (HIGH PRIORITY).
  5. Proactive Information Counter-Offensive: Amplify reports of RUF's high casualties and internal problems (including leadership failures, materiel strain from T-62 return) while rigorously countering RUF disinformation about UAF actions (e.g., mine-laying, forest fires, burning homes, "sabotage groups," false claims of KAB strikes) and their false claims of economic gains (e.g., rare-earth metals, "km² advances"). Highlight documented humanitarian treatment of POWs, leveraging reports like the reconstruction work in Izium. Emphasize successful UAF deep strikes and counter-drone operations (including GUR strikes on Bryansk). (HIGH PRIORITY).
  6. Maintain Operational Reserves Flexible and Prepared: Keep strategic operational reserves in a state of high readiness for rapid deployment to any critical sector, with pre-planned routes and contingencies for both main offensive axes (Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar) and the possibility of a renewed push on Kupiansk. (HIGH PRIORITY).
  7. Address Domestic Mobilization Friction and UXO Threat: Implement measures to address public concerns and friction regarding mobilization efforts, ensuring transparent and fair processes to maintain public support and effective personnel replenishment. Proactively counter RUF disinformation regarding mobilization efforts and alleged UAF TCC tactics. Prioritize UXO clearance in liberated and frontline areas to protect civilians, particularly children, from unexploded ordnance. (MEDIUM PRIORITY).

END OF REPORT

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