Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 272040Z JUN 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF MoD officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko. Ukrainian source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms RUF control of Novoserhiivka. DeepState confirms map updates for this area. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports "Otvazhnye" (brave) units have broken through to the outskirts of Pokrovsk, taking by storm a large part of Belhiyka (Belgium). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports fierce battles continuing north of Novoserhiivka, specifically in the areas of Molodetske and Udachne, and explicitly states that the important T0406 highway supplying the Ukrainian grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is under RUF fire control. Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts a photo message claiming the capture of Molodetske. UAF General Staff reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction. UAF drone footage shows dozens of RUF casualties near Pokrovsk. RUF TASS reports RUF forces used "Geranium-2" (Shahed) to strike a temporary UAF deployment point near Novoekonomicheskoe. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk Oblast. DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole. RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts first-person video of RUF storming an enemy strongpoint. RUF "Воин DV" provides video footage of FAB strikes by the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army on UAF strongholds of the 2nd Battalion, 141st Mechanized Brigade. New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for the Konstantinovka - Yablonovka area. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts FPV drone video from Pokrovsk area. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and vehicles in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA UAF personnel during a rotation attempt. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing RUF personnel "burning out" in forests and tree lines. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," displaying a map overlay indicating Russian advances. RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions. STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides FPV drone video showing destruction of RUF personnel near Pokrovsk. УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming more than 40 combat engagements took place. UAF units successfully repelled 38 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction today. Enemy forces conducted 6 airstrikes in the Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff reports 40 combat engagements have taken place since 22:00. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts FPV drone video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction. Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area. Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, likely by "Рубикон" unit. RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment. Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR and begun fighting for its liberation. TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction. WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, which includes a tactical map of the Donetsk front indicating RUF advances and ongoing operations. WarGonzo also provides a tactical map for the Chasovoyarskoye direction. RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire on enemy positions. Mash na Donbasse reports drones observed over Donetsk in Kuybyshevsky and Kyivsky districts. New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk axis). New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment. RUF TASS reports an RUF strike on a UAF temporary deployment point near Shakhove, DNR. Mash на Донбассе video shows dewatering operations from an underground structure in Chernihivska district, Donetsk. Народная милиция ДНР (RUF source) provides aerial video footage of explosions and targeting reticles near Popovo Yar. Воин DV (RUF source) provides aerial video showing an FPV drone strike on an enemy mortar in Karl Marx (Mirne). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) - Shevchenko - Belgium. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF has taken control of the second of four major lithium deposits in Ukraine, located near Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Pokrovsk direction near Poltavka, Malynivka, Shevchenko Pershe, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novomykolayivka, Kotlyarivka, Myrnohrad, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Oleksiyivka, Novoukrayinka, Kotlyne, Muravka, Zelenyy Kut and towards Volodymyrivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that on the Pokrovsk direction, RUF has concentrated its largest grouping along the entire front line, estimated at approximately 111,000 personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade captured a Chinese mercenary with callsign "Sablya" from RUF's 102nd Regiment, 150th Division, near Toretsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Russian armored vehicle bringing assault troops under Ukrainian artillery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RUF source) posts photo messages with maps titled "Часов Яр – завершение близко" (Chasiv Yar – completion is near), indicating continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms border guards destroyed two enemy artillery pieces near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RUF source) video shows a drone strike targeting a Ukrainian temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 117th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade in the vicinity of Shakhove (Oktyabrskoe) in Dobropillya district. The accompanying text states Dobropillya was a key logistics hub for forces operating in Krasnoarmeysk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна video shows UAF 44th Artillery Brigade engaging RUF D-30 and 2A65 Msta-B howitzers on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating successful counter-battery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows night-time aerial reconnaissance footage on the Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk axis), indicating continued RUF ISR and targeting efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar in the zone of the 68th Army Corps, aiming to disrupt UAF plans to hold positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Басурин о главном posts a photo message celebrating the birthday of Eduard Basurin, a prominent DNR/RUF figure, likely for morale boosting and propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not tactically significant). RUF «Зона СВО» video displays drone footage from Sumy Oblast, showing damaged structures and an explosion, confirming RUF combat operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF «Зона СВО» video shows a RUF soldier operating a drone, engaged in reconnaissance over a rural landscape, indicating continued RUF ISR efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts multiple photo messages of UAF soldiers, some with insignia of the 95th Airborne Brigade, engaged in what appears to be training or static display, promoting morale and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns posts a personal video of a man speaking in Russian, referencing being taken to a "TCK" (territorial recruitment center), possibly indicating challenges with mobilization or dissatisfaction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RUF source) provides photo messages of RUF extracting damaged NATO equipment for technical study. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV (RUF source) video shows 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade destroying a UAF ammunition depot in Karl Marx (Mirne). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Ukrainian soldier reporting 8 days under fire, having to leave cover for supply drops, and no contact with enemy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports RUF "Smerch" MLRS strike on Kostyantynivka, resulting in one fatality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) provides video of Russian soldiers appealing to UAF personnel to surrender, including showing combat footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Привид Хортиці (UAF source) video shows a drone strike on enemy positions, confirming ongoing UAF tactical engagements and effective targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV (RUF source) video shows FAB strikes by the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army near Huliaipole, indicating continued aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Russia is ready for a new round of negotiations with Kyiv, and thanks Erdogan for assistance, suggesting a diplomatic opening. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Russia is ready to hand over another 3,000 bodies of fallen servicemen to Ukraine, in addition to 6,000 already transferred, for humanitarian purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts a photo message stating that burned military trucks in Erfurt, Germany, were not intended for Ukraine, directly refuting earlier claims about sabotaged aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF source) posts a photo message claiming Germany wants to prevent the sale of Nord Stream 2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms the destruction of a rare North Korean MLRS M1991 by drone, indicating UAF's continued targeting of high-value enemy assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports two "meat earners" (RUF personnel) were eliminated somewhere in Donbas. The video shows aerial footage of a wooded area with a dirt path, where a drone operator is observing targets and coordinating, then zooms in on presumed enemy personnel taking cover. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video showing a rocket strike on a concentration of enemy equipment and personnel. The aerial footage depicts a military target, possibly a logistics hub or storage facility, being struck, resulting in a large explosion, smoke, and fire engulfing the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows successful FPV drone strike on a RUF 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer, followed by targeting and elimination of the crew attempting to flee. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a tactical success for UAF.
NEW: RUF "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction). Mash on Donbas provides video of a hurricane in Luhansk. TASS reports at least 15 Ukrainian UAVs attacked the administration of Troitske district in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides photo messages from Troitske, Luhansk, confirming 15 drones destroyed the administration building. УНН (UAF Source) reports that UAF units repelled all enemy attacks in the Lyman direction. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday at Lyman direction near Hrekivka, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, and towards Olhivka, Seredne, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, Torske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 22 dead and nearly 300 wounded. TASS reports RUF "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetropsk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms state initiatives for financial aid to families and the "Safe Community" forum. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports multiple FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district. RUF has launched additional missiles towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful UAF AD against missiles heading towards Dnipro. Serhii Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OGA) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities. ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in a Russian attack on Nikopol. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk. UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports an increased death toll in Dnipro. UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) released a video showcasing the police and emergency services' response. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target heading for Dnipro, and later Samara. RUF "Операция Z" reports strikes on enemy targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Samara. ASTRA reports 3 dead and 14 wounded in Samara (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) due to Russian missile attack. Colonelcassad reports several workshops of the Dnipropetrovsk Pipe Plant were completely destroyed by Iskander missiles on June 24. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Serhiy Lysak reports the death toll in Samara has risen to 5 (from 4 KIA previously reported) and 23 wounded (from 17 previously reported). Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBK-Ukraina echo this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RUF source) claims two missile strikes on industrial zone in Novomoskovsk (Samara), alleging Western military equipment service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (RUF source) reports Russia attacked Samara for the second time this week, resulting in dead and wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) and РБК-Україна (UAF source) confirm that June 28-29 are declared days of mourning in Samara due to the recent Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) posts photo messages recognizing emergency services, law enforcement, utility workers, and volunteers for their efforts in responding to Russian attacks, highlighting continued civilian support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped this week, and the contact line is stabilized. The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 14 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. RUF source "Два майора" provides video of an aerial reconnaissance footage in the Sumy direction. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. "Сливочный каприз" (RUF) posts a map labeled "Sumy - Alekseevka." UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast. TASS (RUF source) photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast. "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" reports a group of enemy strike UAVs heading south in northern Sumy Oblast. Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions in Sumy direction, near Andreevka. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video footage captioned "Воздушные бои в Сумской области: ВДВ завоёвывают господство в воздухе," showing aerial reconnaissance with targeting crosshairs and explosions on the ground. Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. WarGonzo provides a tactical map for the Sumy direction. RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast. UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RUF aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target heading towards Stepanivka/Mykolaivka in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast and deployment of countermeasures. UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 28 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports a high-speed target on the Sumy border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF source) posts a photo message stating "Enemy complains about huge losses in Sumy region. Meat grinder reported." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) confirms a Telegram channel ("Білоруський силовик") reporting on "meat grinder" losses for RUF in Sumy Oblast, stating "all landings are covered in bodies." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Ukrainian FPV drone intercepting a Russian Shahed in Sumy Oblast, filmed from the ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF «Зона СВО» video displays drone footage from Sumy Oblast, showing damaged structures and an explosion, confirming RUF combat operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF «Зона СВО» video shows a RUF soldier operating a drone, engaged in reconnaissance over a rural landscape, indicating continued RUF ISR efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports additional high-speed targets detected over Sumy Oblast, with one heading towards Khotyn. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo messages with maps titled "Армия России продолжает наступление в Сумской области" (Russian Army continues offensive in Sumy Oblast). These maps, likely satellite imagery with overlays, appear to show RUF advances and control over areas near Sumy, which contradicts UAF reports of stabilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the RUF claim/IO, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - on the veracity of the depicted advances).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast heading towards Terny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" echoes the report of a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast heading towards Terny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Суспільне" reports an explosion heard in Bilopillya, Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum. UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian infantry of the 58th Motorized Brigade undergoing training on identifying and understanding various anti-tank mines. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week. UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" warns of KABs over Kharkiv Oblast. UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" provides video of new recruits of the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting live-fire training with an M60 machine gun. RUF "Colonelcassad" provides video showing drone operators of "Zapad" Group destroying a pickup truck and UAF personnel on the Krasnolymansk direction. УНН (UAF Source) reports over 113 square kilometers of territory in Kharkiv Oblast has been demined, and 9,936 explosive objects neutralized. УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces killed 250 Russian soldiers and destroyed 46 pieces of enemy military equipment in the Kharkiv direction in the last day. УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces repelled 3 attacks in the Kupyansk direction. Nikolaevskiy Vanek (UAF Source) reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kharkiv towards Zmiyiv. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Kharkiv. ASTRA reports a drunk RUF soldier ran over a 16-year-old girl in Belgorod Oblast. RUF MoD and Kotsnews claim RUF forces liberated Novaya Kurglyakovka in Kharkiv Oblast. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) echoes this claim with a map. UAF Operatyvnyi ZSU and RBK-Ukraina report Kharkiv's Industrial District was attacked by a RUF "Molniya" type drone. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Synegubov reports the drone strike on Kharkiv's Industrial District hit a road. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv ODA also reports transferring 14 Tesla Powerwall 2.0 systems for healthcare facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report another drone strike on Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms border guards destroyed two enemy artillery pieces near Vovchansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF source) reports signing a memorandum of cooperation with the Kharkiv Regional Organization of the Ukrainian Red Cross Society. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сливочный каприз (RUF source) posts a tactical map for the Kupyansk - Hlushkivka area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on the formation of the 16th Army Corps (A5147) in Kharkiv, indicating UAF force generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports a missile strike on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in three wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) posts two photo messages about Sergey Zdokhleev, a Russian soldier from Krasnoyarsk who died in Ukraine. The caption contains cynical commentary about his death and a "hero's desk" being opened in his school. This indicates UAF efforts to mock RUF personnel losses and propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports an enemy UAV active in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast, heading southeast. Possible air defense engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts photos from the site of a rocket attack on an enterprise in Chuhuiv, showing firefighters and emergency services responding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation. ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction of residential buildings. "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Russian forces are storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front, advancing forward. DeepState reports RUF advances near Kamyanske. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "All clear" for air raid alert, followed by a new alert. РБК-Україна reports fires and damage to non-residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 6 UAVs hit Zaporizhzhia overnight. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video of the aftermath. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 333 strikes on 14 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the last day. RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating an imminent major RUF offensive. ASTRA reports a damaged industrial enterprise building in Zaporizhzhia. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia OMA reports 79-year-old wounded in Huliaipole community. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked a group of ZNPP staff 350 meters from the blocks, but no casualties. RUF "Операция Z" reports a UAF drone attack on ZNPP staff. Zaporizhzhia OMA reports on a discussion about psychological readiness in communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video shows a powerful strike on a Russian echelon near occupied Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) posts video showing a damaged residential building from October 2022 and its subsequent repair, likely to demonstrate resilience and rebuilding efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video shows an FPV drone strike on a demined railway bridge in occupied Zaporizhzhia region, confirming successful disruption of a logistics route. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms Ukrainian military attack on a railway convoy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) provides video footage of a drone attack on a railway train in the Tokmak area of occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued interdiction of supplies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна video shows UAF 44th Artillery Brigade engaging RUF D-30 and 2A65 Msta-B howitzers on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating successful counter-battery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photo messages highlighting the contributions of small and medium-sized businesses to the local economy despite the proximity of the front. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not militarily significant). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts a photo message claiming 11 specialists from RUF's 346th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade died from smoke and dust inhalation in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) posts multiple photo messages and captions highlighting two victories in the "Generation of Victory 2.0" mentorship program, promoting youth engagement and future leadership. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports RUF aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports successful Lancet strike on UAF boat in Dnipro River. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports that a 5-person RUF delegation visited homes in occupied Kakhovka yesterday, marking "unowned" houses. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Kozatske of Kherson region. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian army assaults in Kherson direction yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a strike on a critical energy facility in Kherson Oblast, causing power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF source) reports on the head of Kherson OMA Prokudin stating RUF shelled an important energy facility in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF source) reports on a critical energy facility attack in Kherson Oblast, supporting UAF reports of damage and power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video shows two RUF soldiers discussing their deployment to Donbas and their length of service, likely an internal UAF capture or observation, providing insights into RUF personnel conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) posts a tactical map for the Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" video shows UAF 40th Separate Battalion of Marine Corps engaging RUF personnel and equipment on the left bank of the Dnipro River. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Два майора" posts video and photo messages depicting a forest fire in Kherson Oblast with military personnel present, some using shovels or fire suppression tools. The presence of the 'ДВА МАЙОРА' watermark suggests a RUF source. This indicates environmental challenges possibly impacting military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an explosion and fire in Odessa during a night attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports law enforcement detained an individual in Odesa who tried to buy information on MOD military developments for 40,000 UAH. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts a promotional photo message for a concert in Kyiv, indicating civilian events and public life continue despite conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not militarily significant). STERNENKO (UAF source) posts photo messages reporting the death of Ruslan Bodelan, former Odesa mayor, identified as pro-Russian. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not militarily significant).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports groups of enemy strike UAVs in the Black Sea waters, heading west (Odesa Oblast)! (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" also reports groups of enemy strike drones in the Black Sea waters heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a direct hit by an Iskander-M OTRK on a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Odesa Oblast, with accompanying video showing an explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 15 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) currently in the Black Sea waters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 3 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) approaching Koblevo/Rybakivka, which are coastal settlements in Mykolaiv Oblast near Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports about shooting in the center of Odesa on Soborna Square, where attackers shot a 25-year-old victim in the head and fled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports shooting in the streets of Odesa due to a conflict, with the 25-year-old victim shot in the head. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site. RUF "Два майора" shares video of a person walking in an urban courtyard in Kyiv, suggesting continued RUF surveillance. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports SBU has sentenced a "Rashist" (Russian) in absentia to life imprisonment. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts video of an event related to a Russian missile strike on Solomianskyi district. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" provides video footage of an incident in Kyiv, showing a sudden explosion near a parked car. KMVA posts multiple photo messages showing ongoing cleanup. РБК-Україна reports that the air defense system is working in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv due to UAV threat. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." РБК-Україна reports "explosions heard in Kyiv." Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports a MiG-31K in the air from Savasleyka, with possible launches. РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine. UAF sources report missiles (likely Kinzhals) heading towards Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later "minus" on Kinzhals. РБК-Україна reports continued explosions in Kyiv and AD activity, likely against UAVs. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kyiv, heading west. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles entering Bila Tserkva district (Kyiv Oblast). KMVA reports air raid alert has been lifted for Kyiv. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on weapon/ammunition warehouses in Boryspil and Hostomel near Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was under massive drone and missile attack overnight. KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) posted several photo messages related to "initiatives promoting the recovery and adaptation of military personnel." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF source) video shows RUF soldiers in a cramped, dimly lit structure, suggesting continued presence in combat zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UAF source) reports that prosecutors secured a life sentence for a Russian military serviceman who killed a civilian in Kyiv Oblast and simulated the execution of four others. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора posts a photo message announcing suspicion of illegal enrichment to a former deputy head of the Supreme Commercial Court, indicating continued efforts to combat high-level corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Ukrainian entrepreneurs, emphasizing their role in the economy and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports a threat of ballistic missile launches in Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts a map showing air raid alerts across multiple regions due to UAV and ballistic threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the end of the ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports end of ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany. TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for "Fundamentals of Homeland Security." TASS reports a Chinese journalist was wounded in Kursk Oblast during a UAF strike. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. RUF "Два майора" reports an attack by enemy (UAF) on a gas station in Volokonovsky district, Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports Medvedev stated that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast. WarGonzo reports three people wounded in Bryansk after a UAF UAV strike. Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka. Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts FPV drone video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction. Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing Russian military personnel preparing and deploying an FPV drone. TASS reports a court placed the former head of Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management) in Udmurtia under arrest. RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk. RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control. TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned. ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk. TASS reports an ongoing prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine under Istanbul agreements. RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts video of a Russian deputy stating men go to war due to poverty. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The Washington Post stated Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse. TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells. TASS reports Putin has arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit. ASTRA reports a military deserter in Udmurtia opened fire on police and fled into the forest. UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) video highlights "Operation Interflex." Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) GUR reports striking Russian S-400 system in Crimea using a drone, with video evidence. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (GUR) (UAF source) reports their "Ghosts" special unit struck critical and expensive S-400 Triumph AD system components in occupied Crimea using drones. ASTRA (RUF source) posts video about a UAF drone strike on a missile fuel warehouse in Bryansk. TASS reports 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various regions of the RF and the Black Sea. ТАСС reports 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. TASS reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volzhsky and two districts of Volgograd Oblast. TASS reports temporary movement restrictions on the bridge over the Don River in Kalachevsky district, Volgograd Oblast. Rostov Oblast interim governor reports AD activity overnight with no casualties. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport have been lifted. ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine. RUF "Два майора" is recruiting for the "African Corps" from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. RUF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video of an FSB interrogation of a detained individual in Crimea, claiming he confessed to working for SSU. TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides video of Ua_Reg Team neutralizing Russian artillery in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the US Ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracy, has completed her work and is leaving Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a court arrested a former bank employee in Chelyabinsk on bribery charges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a resident of Chelyabinsk was detained for a two-year-old Telegram comment where she called Russian military "murderers" and "fascists." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a Gnesinka student was detained in Moscow for threatening a pro-rector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) provides a video of a former Ukrainian instructor discussing why he stopped his work, which can be interpreted as RUF propaganda showing disgruntlement within UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts multiple photo messages and videos related to demining operations in the Sudzha border area of Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RUF source) posts photo messages stating "Conscripts continue to die in Kursk Oblast." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Mikhail Voevodin, former head of VSMPO-AVISMA corporation, was arrested on charges of large-scale fraud. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Игорь Артамонов (RUF source) reports Lipetsk Oblast will receive federal funding for modernization of housing and utilities sector. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not militarily significant). Colonelcassad (RUF source) provides video of interrogation of a Crimean resident detained for collecting SBU data on military units on the peninsula. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) video shows a hospital worker transmitting personal data about patients from Melitopol to Ukrainian special services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows the German Ambassador arriving at the Russian Foreign Ministry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber (RUF source) posts a photo message featuring a "Boris Beetle micro-copy testing new watches" which appears to be a personal/humorous post, no military significance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) photo message shows Putin meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi in Minsk, indicating continued diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) posts an analysis titled "China looked at the 13-day war," suggesting a focus on international military assessments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RUF source) posts photo messages featuring a "Wolfling 45" patch, likely a morale-boosting item. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not tactically significant). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) posts a video appealing for donations for VDV (Airborne Forces), specifically for Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones, night/day reconnaissance, and forward position supplies. The video features soldiers with Serbian and Russian flags, identifying as "One color, one faith, one Russia." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts a video titled "Collection for 200 motorcycles," showing military trucks being loaded with dual-sport motorcycles, indicating logistical support for ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posted a video which appears to be a forced or staged message from a Russian prisoner of war, claiming good treatment and no family pressure. This is a common propaganda tactic to counter narratives of poor POW treatment and internal family pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (RUF source) reports on the death of pianist Pavel Kushnir in pre-trial detention. While not directly military, it indicates continued internal human rights issues in Russia. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) posts satellite images of Engels-2 Air Base, Saratov Oblast, showing Tu-160 aircraft and claiming "Tires instead of shelters", suggesting a Russian attempt to protect strategic bombers from drone attacks using improvised methods. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows FSB officers examining cash and documents under UV light, consistent with an anti-corruption or financial crime investigation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) reports the arrest of Oleg Milyuta, a Petersburg legislative assembly deputy, on bribery charges of 14.7 million rubles, along with other local officials. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a civilian being questioned about TCK (mobilization center) visits, likely used for propaganda purposes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF Север.Реалии posts a photo message with "Realii.Weekly" and a flame icon, indicating a media publication, without military significance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RUF source) reports a "prominent fundraiser for the front" was detained in Yakutia, indicating internal crackdowns on even pro-war figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (RUF source) reports YouTube-like platform from Russia Today failed to gain audience and will be relaunched. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) posts a photo message about the Trump campaign selling "daddy" T-shirts. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews (RUF source) reports "White House valued Trump at 27 dollars." (LOW CONFIDENCE). Полиция Хабаровского края (RUF source) posts photo messages about a police officer rescuing a cat, likely for positive PR. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) posts video of journalists awaiting Putin's press approach, indicating a planned media event. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) posts video of a press conference with speakers at a podium, without military content. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Глеб Никитин (RUF source) posts photo messages about cooperation between Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, highlighting scientific collaboration. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts multiple photo messages and captions indicating funerals for military personnel in Iran who died in the war with Israel, suggesting a focus on broader regional conflicts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated that the game "in one goal" with the West has ended, indicating a shift in RF's foreign policy rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated military spending is 13.5 trillion rubles out of 223 trillion GDP, indicating significant military expenditure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin expects the "Special Military Operation" to be completed successfully. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin is open to contacts and meetings, including with Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin is solidary with Trump that future meetings should lead to new levels of cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Russia and the US have good prospects in economic cooperation, and American businesses signal a desire to return to the Russian market. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Western countries are "turning everything upside down" by claiming RF aggressiveness motivates militarization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the West always "buries" Russia, but "they will die soon themselves." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has added rap artist Dmitry Iordatiy, psychologist Ivan Zvyagin, activist Tamilla Imanova, lawyer Artem Klyga, and bloggers Evgeny Egorchenko and Evgeny Trikoz to the list of "foreign agents." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС video shows Putin exiting his vehicle and walking towards a group of journalists, indicating he is preparing to make a statement. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated the growth rate of the EAEU economy is higher than the world average, presenting this as a positive economic indicator. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RUF source) posts a message from Putin stating Russia is ready for a new round of negotiations with Kyiv, with time and place to be agreed upon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF source) posts a photo message claiming Germany wants to prevent the sale of Nord Stream 2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts photo messages about the Khabarovsk Border Institute. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "STERNENKO" (UAF source reporting on RUF content) posts multiple photo and video messages depicting a large forest fire in Transbaikalia, Russia, impacting railway lines. The videos show freight trains passing near intense flames and smoke, indicating potential disruptions to rail logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "AV БогомаZ" reports that two additional aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed by Russian MoD AD units over Bryansk Oblast. This indicates continued UAF cross-border drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "«Зона СВО»" shows video of tactical training involving small unit movement and rappelling, indicating continued RUF force generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Игорь Артамонов" (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports that a "mode of aerial danger" has been introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. This indicates an active air threat to RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Vinnitsia Oblast: НгП раZVедка (RUF source) makes a derogatory comment about Vinnitsia being a "subsidized" area. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), and later reports 2 missiles and 2 "mopeds" (Shaheds) from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later "minus" on Kinzhals. "Suspilne" confirms explosions in the area. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims hypersonic "Kinzhals" struck the UAF airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs were shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Armenia: TASS reports that priests and believers are preventing Armenian National Security Service special forces from detaining Archbishop Mikael. Alex Parker Returns claims Armenian National Security Service special forces stormed the residence of the head of the Armenian Church and detained priests. ASTRA reports security forces came to the residence of the Catholicos. Два майора claims an "inside" report that the Catholicos refusal to "look at Pashinyan's penis" provoked authorities to send special forces. TASS reports Service Nationale de securite directs new forces from Yerevan to Echmiadzin to detain Archbishop Mikael. TASS provides new video of Armenian believers preventing a new attempt by security forces to break into Holy Etchmiadzin. TASS video shows Armenian security forces leaving Holy Etchmiadzin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns provides video of the confrontation between a crowd and law enforcement at the Catholicos's residence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Armenia's Investigative Committee opened a criminal case for citizens obstructing the detention of Archbishop Mikael. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RUF source) comments on Pashinyan's actions against the Armenian church. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) makes an analytical comment framing the Armenian situation against "freedom" narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS video shows a press gathering with journalists surrounding Archbishop Mikael, who is walking, indicating continued public interest and legal proceedings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС video shows Archbishop Mikael arriving at the Armenian Investigative Committee building, which is surrounded by police. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that Archbishop Mikael has refused to run for Prime Minister of Armenia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ingushetia, RF: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that an explosive device detonated near a police college building in Nazran, Ingushetia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Lebanon/Israel: Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts photo messages and captions indicating Israeli Air Force strikes on Southern Lebanon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" and "Alex Parker Returns" posts video showing the aftermath of an explosion or significant damage to a building and surrounding area in Ramat Gan, Central Israel, with the date 19.6.25. This indicates a significant incident in Israel, which may be referenced by RUF for IO purposes or geopolitical analysis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "ТАСС" reports that Trump stated the US hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza in about a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
1.4. Key Changes from Previous Reports
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 111,000 personnel concentrated on the Pokrovsk axis and continues sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including confirmed capture of Yalta, Dyleyevka, Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, and claimed breakthroughs on the outskirts of Pokrovsk towards Belhiyka. RUF is also claiming to have taken Kolesnikivka and assaulting Hlushkivka near Kupyansk, suggesting renewed offensive activity on this axis. New RUF claims of breakthrough on the outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). New RUF advances north of Yablonivka toward Konstantinovka are confirmed. RUF is also confirmed to be storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. New RUF reports confirm their forces have entered Udachne, a critical logistics hub, and are fighting for its liberation. RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating preparations for a major offensive. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. RUF "Два майора" reports an assault detachment on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued ground pressure with specialized units. RUF now claims capture of Novaya Kurglyakovka in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF is actively using dual-sport motorcycles for logistics/reconnaissance as per appeals for donations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RUF source) provides photo messages of RUF extracting damaged NATO equipment for technical study, indicating a capability for technical intelligence collection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV (RUF source) video shows 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade destroying a UAF ammunition depot in Karl Marx (Mirne). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) provides video of Russian soldiers appealing to UAF personnel to surrender, indicating psychological warfare capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts a photo message claiming 11 specialists from RUF's 346th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade died from smoke and dust inhalation in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued RUF special forces operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD reports demining operations in Kursk Oblast using robotic systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
North Korean Troop Deployment: UAF Defense Minister Umierov reports that North Korea has already committed 11,000 elite military personnel to Russia for the war against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - for Umierov's statement. This is a significant and immediate development if confirmed by independent sources).
Air & Missile Forces: RUF is capable of massed, high-volume missile and drone attacks, including ballistic missiles (Iskander, Kinzhal - with a new claim of Kinzhal strike on a UAF airfield), cruise missiles (Kalibr), and a range of UAVs including upgraded Shahed-136 MS with integrated cameras and AI. They possess KAB-enabled tactical aviation for close air support and deep strikes. RUF MoD claims six group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack drones from June 21-27, hitting Ukrainian military industry, fuel/power infrastructure, port facilities, radar stations, ammunition/fuel depots, torpedo/mining weapons arsenals, manufacturing shops, UAV storage/launch facilities, military airfields, and temporary UAF deployment areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) reports Russia is capable of continuously attacking Ukraine with a huge number of Shaheds, citing Le Monde that Russia has started stamping UAVs in Tatarstan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia posts video of Yars transporter erector launchers on combat patrol routes, a routine display of strategic force readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast, indicating sustained air-to-ground strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports RUF "Smerch" MLRS strike on Kostyantynivka, indicating continued MLRS usage for area targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV (RUF source) video shows FAB strikes by the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army near Huliaipole, indicating continued aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) video shows the moment an Iranian "Qasem Basir" missile hit Israeli territory, equipped with an optical guidance module. This implies RUF is analyzing or promoting advanced missile technology, potentially for its own use or as a show of force against Western allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF has activated reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a direct hit by an Iskander-M OTRK on a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video of a RUF "Baba Yaga" drone (heavy drone) striking UAF infantry positions near the border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: RUF continues to maintain naval presence in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including missile carriers. NEW: UAF "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 15 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) currently in the Black Sea waters, confirming continued RUF naval-launched UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Nuclear Posture: RF MoD states Yars mobile missile systems are on combat patrol routes as part of planned exercises, a routine display of strategic force readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Hybrid/Information Warfare: RUF is actively employing IO, including claims of UAF attacks on ZNPP personnel and attempts to influence global narratives. Alex Parker Returns posts disinformation claiming the new head of MI6 is a "hereditary Nazi collaborator" of Ukrainian origin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a derogatory video of a woman (schlubot), likely for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a derogatory caricature, possibly of a figure related to Ukraine or the West. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF is utilizing arrests of alleged agents and collaborators (e.g., in Crimea, Melitopol, Yakutia) for propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posted a video which appears to be a forced or staged message from a Russian prisoner of war, claiming good treatment and no family pressure. This is a common propaganda tactic to counter narratives of poor POW treatment and internal family pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Операция Z claims Ukraine is again requesting a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, likely to portray Ukraine as weak or desperate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a civilian being questioned about TCK (mobilization center) visits, likely used for propaganda purposes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on Ukraine starting basic military training for students, framing it as forced mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) provides video of Russian soldiers appealing to UAF personnel to surrender, indicating psychological warfare capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows journalists awaiting Putin's press approach, indicating a controlled media environment. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows a press conference, reflecting controlled official communication. (LOW CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RUF source) posts video from the Volunteer Corps, showing destruction of enemy personnel and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo (RUF source) posts video of Shamsail Saraliev discussing alleged Ukrainian war crimes against prisoners, a clear IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated the growth rate of the EAEU economy is higher than the world average, presenting this as a positive economic indicator, likely for internal morale and external image. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RUF source) posts a message from Putin stating Russia is ready for a new round of negotiations with Kyiv, with time and place to be agreed upon, indicating a new IO push for negotiations on Russian terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Russia is ready to hand over another 3,000 bodies of fallen servicemen to Ukraine, in addition to 6,000 already transferred, which can be used for IO to show humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF source) posts a photo message claiming Germany wants to prevent the sale of Nord Stream 2, which aligns with anti-Western economic narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has added several individuals to the list of "foreign agents." This reinforces the narrative of internal threats and justification for increased state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated that the game "in one goal" with the West has ended. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Western countries are "turning everything upside down" by claiming RF aggressiveness motivates militarization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the West always "buries" Russia, but "they will die soon themselves." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Operatsiya Z (RUF Source) posts a photo message from BILD claiming: "Russia after the war in Ukraine will become even stronger and is indeed preparing for a possible invasion of NATO countries." This is a new, provocative IO narrative aimed at both Western audiences and Russian internal consumption, projecting strength and future military intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "ТАСС" reports that Nebenzya stated Zelensky is already politically dead. This is a clear RUF IO effort to de-legitimize Ukrainian leadership and reduce the perception of its influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Fighterbomber" comments on a previous post by "Fighterbomber" stating "Тупая пизда и её парень, по совместительству ценный иностранный специалист в очередной раз порвались с в общем то лайтового поста ФБ." This highly offensive and derogatory language, targeting individuals identified as "valuable foreign specialists," is a direct and aggressive RUF IO attack aimed at demoralizing or discrediting foreign volunteers/support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the IO intent and nature of the attack, LOW CONFIDENCE - on the specific identity of the target).
NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts detailed operational update maps, serving both as internal documentation and external IO to demonstrate control and progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security: RUF maintains capabilities for robust internal security operations, including intelligence gathering, arrests of alleged foreign agents, and suppressing dissent. ASTRA reports a court arrested a former bank employee in Chelyabinsk on bribery charges, and ASTRA reports a Chelyabinsk resident was detained for a two-year-old Telegram comment. TASS reports a Gnesinka student was detained in Moscow for threatening a pro-rector. ASTRA reports two police officers in Kazan broke the ribs and beat a detainee. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Mikhail Voevodin, former head of VSMPO-AVISMA corporation, was arrested on charges of large-scale fraud, used to imply internal vigilance against corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (RUF source) reports on the death of pianist Pavel Kushnir in pre-trial detention, indicating continued internal human rights issues in Russia. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS video shows FSB officers examining cash and documents under UV light, consistent with an anti-corruption or financial crime investigation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the arrest of Oleg Milyuta, a Petersburg legislative assembly deputy, on bribery charges of 14.7 million rubles, along with other local officials, indicating central government anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reports on Telegram's non-compliance with Russian law and potential for stricter sanctions, indicating the government's capability and intent to increase information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a derogatory photo message about "mental invalids," likely used for internal social commentary or manipulation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Полиция Хабаровского края (RUF source) posts photo messages about a police officer rescuing a cat, likely for positive PR to improve public perception of internal security forces. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts photo messages about the Khabarovsk Border Institute. While not directly military, it signifies ongoing state presence and security apparatus. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the Interior Ministry warned of fraud on behalf of "Vodokanal" specialists, indicating public awareness campaigns against internal fraud. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "Два майора" reports an incident where alleged "Akhmat" fighters assaulted military police who stopped them for traffic violations. This indicates potential challenges to military discipline and internal authority within RUF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
Centralized Decision-Making: Putin's direct engagement with Lukashenko on bilateral relations and Belousov's public statements at the SCO indicate a centralized and top-down command structure for strategic and diplomatic initiatives. The RF MoD reporting Yars missile systems on combat patrol also reflects centralized strategic command. The arrest of a Deputy Head of MoD property management Oleg Vasenin and seizure of assets indicates a potential top-down internal crackdown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Mikhail Voevodin, former head of VSMPO-AVISMA corporation, was arrested on charges of large-scale fraud, potentially impacting military-industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) photo message shows Putin meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi in Minsk, indicating continued diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Глеб Никитин (RUF source) posts photo messages about officially cementing cooperation between Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and Vitebsk Oblast in Belarus, highlighting strengthening regional economic and political ties within the Russia-Belarus Union framework. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the arrest of Oleg Milyuta, a Petersburg legislative assembly deputy, on bribery charges of 14.7 million rubles, along with other local officials, indicating central government anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows journalists awaiting Putin's press approach, indicating a controlled media environment. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows a press conference, reflecting controlled official communication. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
Adaptive IO Response: RUF's rapid adaptation of IO narratives (e.g., blame-shifting for civilian casualties, leveraging the Chinese journalist incident) and the prisoner exchange for propaganda, demonstrates effective, centrally coordinated information warfare. The pre-positioning of "LOUD" warnings for Kyiv and subsequent missile launches indicates coordinated IO ahead of kinetic strikes. RUF channels are celebrating the current missile strikes. RUF IO claiming SBU targets Akhmat command staff is a further coordinated narrative. **A new narrative discrediting UK intelligence is emerging, indicating continued development of IO lines. RUF "Операция Z" pre-announcing a major offensive on Zaporizhzhia is a new, coordinated IO tactic. RUF Два майора uses Armenian internal unrest to frame Zelenskyy as a "military dictator" and imply similar methods. WarGonzo amplifies the Russian narrative regarding Ukraine shooting down its own POW plane, a strong RUF IO effort to undermine UAF's humanitarian image. WarGonzo (RUF source) posts video of Shamsail Saraliev discussing alleged Ukrainian war crimes against prisoners, a clear IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts disinformation about the new head of MI6, indicating a continued RUF effort to delegitimize Western leadership and create anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posted a video which appears to be a forced or staged message from a Russian prisoner of war, claiming good treatment and no family pressure. This is a common propaganda tactic to counter narratives of poor POW treatment and internal family pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Операция Z claims Ukraine is again requesting a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, likely to portray Ukraine as weak or desperate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a civilian being questioned about TCK (mobilization center) visits, likely used for propaganda purposes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on Ukraine starting basic military training for students, framing it as forced mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) provides video of Russian soldiers appealing to UAF personnel to surrender, indicating psychological warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated the growth rate of the EAEU economy is higher than the world average, presenting this as a positive economic indicator, likely for internal morale and external image. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Военкор Котенок (RUF source) posts a message from Putin stating Russia is ready for a new round of negotiations with Kyiv, with time and place to be agreed upon, indicating a new IO push for negotiations on Russian terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Russia is ready to hand over another 3,000 bodies of fallen servicemen to Ukraine, in addition to 6,000 already transferred, which can be used for IO to show humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF source) posts a photo message claiming Germany wants to prevent the sale of Nord Stream 2, which aligns with anti-Western economic narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has added several individuals to the list of "foreign agents." This reinforces the narrative of internal threats and justification for increased state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated that the game "in one goal" with the West has ended. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Putin stated Western countries are "turning everything upside down" by claiming RF aggressiveness motivates militarization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the West always "buries" Russia, but "they will die soon themselves." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Operatsiya Z (RUF Source) posts a photo message from BILD claiming: "Russia after the war in Ukraine will become even stronger and is indeed preparing for a possible invasion of NATO countries." This is a new, provocative IO narrative aimed at both Western audiences and Russian internal consumption, projecting strength and future military intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "ТАСС" reports that Nebenzya stated Zelensky is already politically dead. This is a clear RUF IO effort to de-legitimize Ukrainian leadership and reduce the perception of its influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Fighterbomber" comments on a previous post by "Fighterbomber" stating "Тупая пизда и её парень, по совместительству ценный иностранный специалист в очередной раз порвались с в общем то лайтового поста ФБ." This highly offensive and derogatory language, targeting individuals identified as "valuable foreign specialists," is a direct and aggressive RUF IO attack aimed at demoralizing or discrediting foreign volunteers/support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the IO intent and nature of the attack, LOW CONFIDENCE - on the specific identity of the target).
NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) is actively promoting the narrative of continued Russian offensive operations in Sumy Oblast, despite UAF reports of stabilization. This indicates a coordinated IO effort to project an image of ongoing success and pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts detailed operational update maps, serving both as internal documentation and external IO to demonstrate control and progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Новости Москвы" reports on a graduation ceremony at VDNH in Moscow, featuring a concert. This is a civilian event highlighting social normalcy in Russia despite the ongoing conflict and is likely a centrally coordinated IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Dissent: Igor Strelkov's public criticism of Russian authorities' "indistinct movements" and "complete lack of strategy" indicates continued, albeit contained, internal dissent within the hardline pro-war community. Discussions on "Unauthorized Abandonment of Unit" (AWOL) by RUF military bloggers also reveal internal challenges with discipline. Igor Strelkov reiterates concerns about Russia's vulnerable position against a united US/EU front, indicating continued strategic criticism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) comments on a list of illnesses acquired during combat for which no payments or military injury recognition are granted, which could signal morale issues related to lack of support for personnel, contributing to dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) reports on a Russian soldier attempting suicide on live stream. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) reports on disparities in recognition between rear and frontline personnel, indicating morale issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "Два майора" reports an incident where alleged "Akhmat" fighters assaulted military police who stopped them for traffic violations. This indicates potential challenges to military discipline and internal authority within RUF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Increased Internal Security Measures: The intensified FSB activity, arrests for alleged espionage, and heightened rhetoric regarding "foreign agents" and "sleeper cells" suggest a proactive C2 response to perceived internal threats. New reports of anarchist disappearances and arrests for document forgery related to migrants underscore this. The detention of a healthcare worker in Melitopol and a Crimean resident for SBU links, along with videos of confessions, demonstrates active RUF counter-intelligence. ASTRA reports a court arrested a former bank employee in Chelyabinsk on bribery charges, and ASTRA reports a Chelyabinsk resident was detained for a two-year-old Telegram comment. TASS reports a Gnesinka student was detained in Moscow for threatening a pro-rector. ASTRA reports two police officers in Kazan broke the ribs and beat a detainee. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Mikhail Voevodin, former head of VSMPO-AVISMA corporation, was arrested on charges of large-scale fraud, used to imply internal vigilance against corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Север.Реалии (RUF source) reports on the death of pianist Pavel Kushnir in pre-trial detention, indicating continued internal human rights issues in Russia. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS video shows FSB officers examining cash and documents under UV light, consistent with an anti-corruption or financial crime investigation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RUF source) reports a "prominent fundraiser for the front" was detained in Yakutia, which is used to show internal security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Полиция Хабаровского края (RUF source) posts photo messages about a police officer rescuing a cat, likely for positive PR to improve public perception of internal security forces. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the Ministry of Justice has added several individuals to the list of "foreign agents." This reinforces the narrative of internal threats and justification for increased state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts photo messages about the Khabarovsk Border Institute, suggesting an emphasis on border security narratives. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the Interior Ministry warned of fraud on behalf of "Vodokanal" specialists, indicating public awareness campaigns against internal fraud. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Response to Cross-Border Strikes: The immediate reporting and deployment of AD assets in response to UAV activity over Rostov and Volgograd and temporary airport closures indicate a functional, albeit reactive, C2 system for homeland air defense. The successful UAF strike on Marinovka airfield demonstrates a significant failure of RUF air defense and airfield security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Fighterbomber's non-commentary on Marinovka is a strong indicator of successful UAF action and a tactical C2 failure for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Recruitment for "African Corps" by MoD: The direct recruitment for the "African Corps" by the Ministry of Defense, as advertised by "Два майора," indicates a centralized and coordinated effort to expand RUF's global military presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Armenian Internal Security Incidents: TASS and Рыбарь report on Armenian national security services active near the Catholicos residence in Echmiadzin. TASS reports new forces from Yerevan are being sent to detain the Archbishop. Операция Z (RUF Source) also highlights the "repression" against the Armenian Church". TASS provides new video of Armenian believers preventing security forces from entering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RUF source) comments on Pashinyan's actions against the Armenian church. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) makes an analytical comment framing the Armenian situation against "freedom" narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS video shows a press gathering with journalists surrounding Archbishop Mikael, who is walking, indicating continued public interest and legal proceedings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС video shows Archbishop Mikael arriving at the Armenian Investigative Committee building, which is surrounded by police. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS confirms Armenian Archbishop Mikael has been detained. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ingushetia Internal Security: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an explosive device detonation near a police college in Nazran, Ingushetia. This points to C2 challenges in maintaining internal security in volatile regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Concerns over bureaucracy within RUF C2: "Два майора" points to "report flood" and excessive paperwork as a major disorganizing factor for command organs, indicating internal recognition of bureaucratic inefficiencies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Corruption charges in St. Petersburg: TASS reports bribery charges against local administration heads in Kolpinsky district, St. Petersburg, which could reflect ongoing internal governance challenges and corruption within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Diplomatic Response to German Ambassador: TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia has been summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry to announce retaliatory measures for the persecution of Russian journalists, demonstrating a coordinated diplomatic response to perceived Western aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF source) video shows the German Ambassador arriving at the Russian Foreign Ministry and departing later. TASS reports the ambassador "did not understand" what was being discussed due to poor Russian language skills, and returned with an interpreter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Academic Scrutiny: ASTRA reports a protocol was drawn up against the European University in St. Petersburg for "inciting hatred or enmity," indicating a tightening of academic freedom and an attempt to control intellectual discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
TASS reports the US Ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracy, has completed her work and is leaving Moscow. This could signal a diplomatic shift or continued deterioration of US-Russia relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
General SVR (RUF source) reports a phone call between Trump and "Putin", where Trump presented a plan to end the war and expects a response by next Friday. (LOW CONFIDENCE - for content veracity; HIGH CONFIDENCE - for the report of the conversation from this source).
Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on the formation of the 16th Army Corps (A5147) in Kharkiv, indicating RUF is tracking UAF force generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy's moratorium on business inspections suggests a focus on maintaining internal economic stability, which is a C2 measure to ensure societal resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy's sanctions against Shahed producers indicate a coordinated political and economic C2 effort to target the enemy's military-industrial complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Putin Comments on Negotiations: TASS reports Putin stating Russia is ready for a new round of negotiations with Kyiv and thanks Erdogan for assistance, indicating a potential shift in RUF's diplomatic posture and C2 messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Putin on POW Bodies: TASS reports Putin stated Russia is ready to hand over another 3,000 bodies of fallen servicemen to Ukraine, in addition to 6,000 already transferred, for humanitarian purposes. This is a C2 decision for humanitarian IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Erfurt Fire Re-Assessment: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts a photo message stating that burned military trucks in Erfurt, Germany, were not intended for Ukraine, directly refuting earlier claims about sabotaged aid. This indicates RUF's C2 attempts to manipulate narratives regarding Western aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
German Stance on Nord Stream 2: Операция Z (RUF source) posts a photo message claiming Germany wants to prevent the sale of Nord Stream 2. This suggests RUF C2 is leveraging economic pressure as part of its hybrid strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Putin's Economic Claims: TASS reports Putin stated military spending is 13.5 trillion rubles out of 223 trillion GDP, and that Russia "fights" for a healthy macroeconomy despite military expenses. He also stated salaries have grown by 4% in real terms. These comments are likely for internal economic reassurance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Putin on US-Russia Relations: TASS reports Putin is open to contacts and meetings, including with Trump, and is solidary with Trump that future meetings should lead to new levels of cooperation. Putin also stated Russia and the US have good prospects in economic cooperation, and American businesses signal a desire to return to the Russian market. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Putin's view on Western Militarization: TASS reports Putin stated Western countries are "turning everything upside down" by claiming RF aggressiveness motivates militarization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zelenskyy's Order on Military Payments: President Zelenskyy has ordered increased payments to military personnel in the 2026-2028 budget declaration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Zelenskiy / Official" reports President Zelenskyy held a "Technology Staff Meeting" with detailed reports on drones (financing, production, regulatory streamlining) and emphasis on maximizing production of frontline and city-defense drones, adapting to enemy tech. This highlights a strategic focus on technological advantage at the highest level of C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the appointment of Oleksandr Alfyorov as head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory. This is a C2 decision by the Ukrainian government concerning national identity and historical narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts photo messages detailing the number of targeted objects by "Rubicon" unit. This is likely an internal RUF performance metric for drone units, indicating C2 focus on operational efficiency and impact assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
Northern Axis Defensive Success: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms the successful halting and stabilization of the ~50,000-strong RUF offensive on the Sumy axis. This demonstrates effective defensive planning, force allocation, and unit readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Active Defense in Donetsk: UAF forces are actively engaged in defending against RUF advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, inflicting high casualties on RUF "meat grinder" assaults. UAF is actively clearing trenches and conducting assaults with units like the 78th Separate Assault Regiment. UAF "STERNENKO" posts a video claiming successful drone strike against RUF personnel in a building, indicating effective tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade captured a Chinese mercenary with callsign "Sablya" from RUF's 102nd Regiment, 150th Division, near Toretsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Russian armored vehicle bringing assault troops under Ukrainian artillery fire, then retreating. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Ukrainian soldier reporting 8 days under fire, having to leave cover for supply drops, and no contact with enemy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Привид Хортиці (UAF source) video shows a drone strike on enemy positions, confirming ongoing UAF tactical engagements and effective targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Enhanced Air Defense: UAF continues to demonstrate effective multi-layered air defense capabilities, with 17 Shahed UAVs destroyed over Odesa, 7 UAVs by 1129th ZRP, and active AD responses in Kyiv Oblast and Mykolaiv. The development and testing of drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia indicate ongoing efforts to enhance AD. The nationwide air raid alert and reports of MiG-31K launches demonstrate UAF's immediate response. Latest reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirm successful interception ("minus") of the current missile wave, and the number of remaining Shaheds has decreased to 2. UAF AD is currently active in Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv. 19 enemy UAVs were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade DSHV of the UAF demonstrates a Ukrainian-made "Safari" HG-105M semi-automatic shotgun with anti-drone capabilities. New "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Shahed being shot down by an interceptor drone. New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. UAF Air Force reports 365 targets neutralized out of 371. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. Umierov states that the anti-Shahed solution is very effective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air raid alerts have been lifted in most areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Ukrainian FPV drone intercepting a Russian Shahed in Sumy Oblast, filmed from the ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF source) video confirms a UAF drone destroying a Russian FORPOST-R reconnaissance drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports enemy UAV active in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast, heading southeast. Possible air defense engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports groups of enemy strike UAVs in the Black Sea waters, heading west (Odesa Oblast)! (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" also reports groups of enemy strike drones in the Black Sea waters heading towards Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast heading towards Terny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" echoes the report of a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast heading towards Terny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports end of ballistic missile threat for most regions, with an ongoing threat in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia (aviation means), and Odesa/Mykolaiv (UAVs). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the end of the ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports end of ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 2 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) have passed Dobroslav heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Indigenous Strike Capabilities: UAF continues to develop and employ indigenous long-range strike capabilities, demonstrated by successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in Zaporizhzhia and the confirmed GUR strike on the Bryansk fuel warehouse. The claimed "Peklo" missile-drone, if verified, would represent a significant new capability. GUR's "Ghosts" unit successfully struck S-400 system components in Crimea. UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast. Umierov states Ukraine is preparing to contract tens of thousands of deep-strike drones and will conduct more long-range operations against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video shows a powerful strike on a Russian echelon near occupied Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) FPV drone video shows destruction of a RUF Kamaz truck. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video shows an FPV drone strike on a demined railway bridge in occupied Zaporizhzhia region, confirming successful disruption of a logistics route. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms Ukrainian military attack on a railway convoy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) provides video footage of a drone attack on a railway train in the Tokmak area of occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued interdiction capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна video shows UAF 44th Artillery Brigade engaging RUF D-30 and 2A65 Msta-B howitzers on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating successful counter-battery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source) video shows the destruction of a 240-mm North Korean MLRS M1991 using an FPV drone, reinforcing UAF indigenous strike capabilities against high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports two "meat earners" (RUF personnel) were eliminated somewhere in Donbas. The video shows aerial footage of a wooded area with a dirt path, where a drone operator is observing targets and coordinating, then zooms in on presumed enemy personnel taking cover. This indicates successful UAF tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows successful FPV drone strike on a RUF 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer, followed by targeting and elimination of the crew attempting to flee. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a tactical success for UAF.
NEW: UAF "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" video shows UAF 40th Separate Battalion of Marine Corps engaging RUF personnel and equipment on the left bank of the Dnipro River. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows Ukrainian soldiers interrogating and providing medical aid to captured Russian soldiers in a trench, indicating successful capture operations and adherence to humanitarian treatment of POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Force Generation & Training: UAF is actively conducting training for new recruits and participating in "Operation Interflex" with numerous international partners. UAF Defense Minister Umierov confirms that over 50% of the planned fortification construction for this year has been completed and that contract units (18-24 years old) are showing effective results. KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) also posted photo messages promoting initiatives for military personnel recovery and adaptation. Umierov states Ukraine is launching a joint weapon production program with international partners in Ukraine and "Ramstein" participant countries. UAF General Staff provides multiple photo messages of Special Operations Forces (SSO) training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on a motivated fighter who voluntarily joined the army after a year in occupation in Kharkiv Oblast, showing continued morale and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) posts multiple photo messages and captions highlighting the capabilities and deployment of armored vehicles at the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts multiple photo messages of UAF soldiers, some with insignia of the 95th Airborne Brigade, engaged in what appears to be training or static display, promoting morale and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports that from September 1, 2025, students will begin basic general military training in Ukraine, which is a future success for force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts multiple photo messages detailing an online meeting with families of soldiers from the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala." This indicates efforts to support personnel and families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskiy / Official (UAF source) video shows President Zelenskyy speaking at a "Forum of States and Business," thanking Ukrainian entrepreneurs for their work. This highlights efforts to maintain economic stability and foster a resilient workforce. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Ukrainian entrepreneurs, emphasizing their role in the economy and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) posts multiple photo messages and captions highlighting two victories in the "Generation of Victory 2.0" mentorship program, promoting youth engagement and future leadership. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UAF source) video showcases the vital work of drone repair specialists from the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, highlighting technical expertise and dedication to maintaining aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) posts photo messages recognizing emergency services, law enforcement, utility workers, and volunteers for their efforts in responding to Russian attacks, highlighting continued civilian support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) reports that Ukrainian servicemen are among the winners of the LifePressPhoto international photojournalism contest, showcasing UAF efforts to document war realities and heroism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF source) shares a video of a freed POW advising families not to "put life on hold," emphasizing the importance of continued remembrance for POW morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Zelenskiy / Official" reports President Zelenskyy held a "Technology Staff Meeting" with detailed reports on drones (financing, production, regulatory streamlining) and emphasis on maximizing production of frontline and city-defense drones, adapting to enemy tech. This highlights a strategic focus on technological advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the appointment of Oleksandr Alfyorov as head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts video from the "Strizh" drone systems battalion, showing newly received drones and gratitude to donors, indicating continued UAF reliance on volunteer support for drone procurement and sustained training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Morale Boost from POW Exchange: The confirmed prisoner exchange and associated emotional reunions will provide a significant morale boost. The Coordination Staff on POW Issues reports on a meeting with families of servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts a promotional photo message for a concert in Kyiv, indicating civilian events and public life continue despite conflict, supporting morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not militarily significant).
Challenges:
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
SUCCESS: Sumy Offensive Halted: UAF has successfully halted and stabilized the large-scale RUF offensive on the Sumy axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Logistics Interdiction: Successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in Zaporizhzhia and the GUR strike on the Bryansk fuel warehouse represent significant blows to RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video shows a powerful strike on a Russian echelon near occupied Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) FPV drone video shows destruction of a RUF Kamaz truck. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video shows an FPV drone strike on a demined railway bridge in occupied Zaporizhzhia region, confirming successful disruption of a logistics route. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms Ukrainian military attack on a railway convoy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) provides video footage of a drone attack on a railway train in the Tokmak area of occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued interdiction capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна video shows UAF 44th Artillery Brigade engaging RUF D-30 and 2A65 Msta-B howitzers on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating successful counter-battery fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source) video shows the destruction of a 240-mm North Korean MLRS M1991 using an FPV drone, reinforcing UAF indigenous strike capabilities against high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: S-400 Strike: GUR's confirmed strike on S-400 AD system components in Crimea demonstrates a critical capability against high-value RUF targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: High RUF Casualties in Donetsk: UAF drone footage confirms dozens of RUF casualties from "meat grinder" assaults near Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff and other UAF sources confirm +970 liquidated Russian personnel in the last 24 hours. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" (UAF Source) provides video showing Ukrainian soldiers capturing enemy personnel in a trench/dugout. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Russian armored vehicle bringing assault troops under Ukrainian artillery fire, then retreating. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) confirms a Telegram channel ("Білоруський силовик") reporting on "meat grinder" losses for RUF in Sumy Oblast, stating "all landings are covered in bodies." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) posts two photo messages about Sergey Zdokhleev, a Russian soldier from Krasnoyarsk who died in Ukraine. This reinforces the narrative of RUF personnel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts a photo message claiming 11 specialists from RUF's 346th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade died from smoke and dust inhalation in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: FPV Drone Kill of RUF MLRS: Successful UAF FPV drone strike destroying a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS demonstrates effective tactical targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows successful FPV drone strike on a RUF 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "STERNENKO" posts a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian MLRS Grad, resulting in fire and deflagration of remaining rockets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS (PARTIAL): Missile and UAV Interception: Latest reports indicate successful interception ("minus") of the current missile wave, and a reduced number of remaining Shaheds. 19 enemy UAVs were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. New "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Shahed being shot down by an interceptor drone. New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. UAF Air Force reports 365 targets neutralized out of 371. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. Umierov states that the anti-Shahed solution is very effective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air raid alerts have been lifted in most areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) video shows a Ukrainian FPV drone intercepting a Russian Shahed in Sumy Oblast, filmed from the ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF source) video confirms a UAF drone destroying a Russian FORPOST-R reconnaissance drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: New Domestic Anti-Drone Weapon: The demonstration of the Ukrainian-made "Safari" HG-105M semi-automatic shotgun with anti-drone capabilities represents a successful adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: EU Financial Aid for 2025 agreed: EU agreed to allocate 30.6 billion EUR to Ukraine in 2025, bypassing Hungary's veto. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Joint Weapon Production Program: Umierov announces Ukraine is launching a joint weapon production program with international partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Increased Long-Range Operations: Umierov confirms there will be more long-range operations against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: SSO Training: UAF General Staff provides video and photo messages of Special Operations Forces (SSO) training, highlighting readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) posts multiple photo messages and captions highlighting the capabilities and deployment of armored vehicles at the front, used to project military strength and effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts multiple photo messages of UAF soldiers, some with insignia of the 95th Airborne Brigade, engaged in what appears to be training or static display, promoting morale and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports that from September 1, 2025, students will begin basic general military training in Ukraine, which is a future success for force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts multiple photo messages detailing an online meeting with families of soldiers from the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala." This indicates efforts to support personnel and families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zelenskiy / Official (UAF source) video shows President Zelenskyy speaking at a "Forum of States and Business," thanking Ukrainian entrepreneurs for their work. This highlights efforts to maintain economic stability and foster a resilient workforce. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Ukrainian entrepreneurs, emphasizing their role in the economy and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) posts multiple photo messages and captions highlighting two victories in the "Generation of Victory 2.0" mentorship program, promoting youth engagement and future leadership. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (UAF source) video showcases the vital work of drone repair specialists from the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, highlighting technical expertise and dedication to maintaining aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) posts photo messages recognizing emergency services, law enforcement, utility workers, and volunteers for their efforts in responding to Russian attacks, highlighting continued civilian support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) reports that Ukrainian servicemen are among the winners of the LifePressPhoto international photojournalism contest, showcasing UAF efforts to document war realities and heroism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF source) shares a video of a freed POW advising families not to "put life on hold," emphasizing the importance of continued remembrance for POW morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Continued Recruitment: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on a motivated fighter voluntarily joining the army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Capture of Chinese Prisoner: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade captured a Chinese mercenary with callsign "Sablya" from RUF's 102nd Regiment, 150th Division, near Toretsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Red Cross Cooperation in Kharkiv: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF source) reports signing a memorandum of cooperation with the Kharkiv Regional Organization of the Ukrainian Red Cross Society, indicating sustained humanitarian support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: North Korean MLRS Destruction: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) and РБК-Україна (UAF source) confirm a video showing the destruction of a rare North Korean MLRS M1991 on the Novopavlivka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source) video shows the destruction of a 240-mm North Korean MLRS M1991 using an FPV drone, reinforcing UAF indigenous strike capabilities against high-value targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Sanctions on Shahed Producers: Zelenskyy introduced sanctions against 52 individuals and 35 legal entities involved in producing and supplying Shaheds. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Moratorium on Business Inspections: Zelenskyy ordered preparation of a long-term moratorium on business inspections to protect businesses from pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Zelenskyy's Order on Military Payments: President Zelenskyy has ordered increased payments to military personnel in the 2026-2028 budget declaration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: UAF Deep Strike on Mariynovka Airfield, RF: UAF General Staff and SBU/SSO confirm a successful strike on Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, RF, destroying two Su-34s and damaging two more. This represents a significant UAF deep strike capability beyond 400km into Russian territory, targeting high-value RUF air assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Zelenskiy / Official" reports President Zelenskyy held a "Technology Staff Meeting" with detailed reports on drones (financing, production, regulatory streamlining) and emphasis on maximizing production of frontline and city-defense drones, adapting to enemy tech. This demonstrates a strategic success in prioritizing and adapting to technological warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports two "meat earners" (RUF personnel) were eliminated somewhere in Donbas. The video shows aerial footage of a wooded area with a dirt path, where a drone operator is observing targets and coordinating, then zooms in on presumed enemy personnel taking cover. This indicates successful UAF tactical strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts video from the "Strizh" drone systems battalion, showing newly received drones and gratitude to donors, indicating continued UAF reliance on volunteer support for drone procurement and sustained training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "✙DeepState✙🇺🇦" video shows UAF 40th Separate Battalion of Marine Corps engaging RUF personnel and equipment on the left bank of the Dnipro River. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows Ukrainian soldiers interrogating and providing medical aid to captured Russian soldiers in a trench, indicating successful capture operations and adherence to humanitarian treatment of POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: Russian Advances in Donetsk: RUF has confirmed capture of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, and claimed breakthroughs on the outskirts of Pokrovsk towards Belhiyka. RUF also claims their forces have entered Udachne and are fighting for its liberation. The T0406 highway is reportedly under RUF fire control. These are significant tactical setbacks for UAF. RUF also claims to have taken Kolesnikivka and is assaulting Hlushkivka near Kupyansk, which if confirmed, would represent further territorial losses. New RUF claims of breakthrough on the outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" is actively amplifying claimed advances in Sumy Oblast, despite UAF reports of stabilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: Continued Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: RUF strikes continue to cause significant civilian casualties (22 KIA in Dnipro, 5 KIA and 23 WIA in Samara, 1 KIA in Kostyantynivka) and damage to civilian infrastructure (e.g., Zaporizhzhia, Chuhuiv, Kherson energy facility), placing strain on civilian services and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: Potential Desertion: RUF "Операция Z" reports a Ukrainian border guard fled to Slovakia and requested asylum. While not confirmed, this represents a potential internal issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: New RUF Strike UAVs: The GUR report on upgraded Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs with integrated cameras and AI poses a new challenge to UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: Confirmed Chinese Mercenary: The capture of a Chinese mercenary provides evidence of further foreign involvement supporting RUF, complicating diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts video showing a rocket strike on a concentration of enemy equipment and personnel. The aerial footage depicts a military target, possibly a logistics hub or storage facility, being struck, resulting in a large explosion, smoke, and fire engulfing the area. This signifies a successful RUF strike on UAF assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo messages with maps titled "Армия России продолжает наступление в Сумской области" (Russian Army continues offensive in Sumy Oblast). These claimed advances, if substantiated, would represent a setback for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the RUF claim/IO, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - on the veracity of the depicted advances).
NEW: RUF "Fighterbomber" comments on a previous post by "Fighterbomber" stating "Тупая пизда и её парень, по совместительству ценный иностранный специалист в очередной раз порвались с в общем то лайтового поста ФБ." This highly offensive and derogatory language, targeting individuals identified as "valuable foreign specialists," is a direct and aggressive RUF IO attack aimed at demoralizing or discrediting foreign volunteers/support for Ukraine. This kind of IO can be a morale setback for foreign volunteers and internal UAF supporters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - on the IO intent and nature of the attack, LOW CONFIDENCE - on the specific identity of the target).
NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports a statement from a Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade Deputy Commander Zhoryn, stating the situation at the front is "very bad," and summer and autumn will be "not good for the AFU" due to the tempo of Russian advances. This is a significant morale challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF "РБК-Україна" reports about shooting in the center of Odesa on Soborna Square, where attackers shot a 25-year-old victim in the head and fled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a breakdown in internal security in a major city.
NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports shooting in the streets of Odesa due to a conflict, with the 25-year-old victim shot in the head. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates a breakdown in internal security in a major city.
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RUF Narratives:
UAF Narratives:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Ukrainian Public:
Russian Public:
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
Support for Ukraine:
Diplomatic/International Relations (Russia):
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
ENEMY FORCE COMPOSITION (POKROVSK-TORETSK AXIS):
RUF ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE INTENTIONS & PREPARATIONS:
IMPACT OF UAF DEEP STRIKES ON RUF AIR ASSETS AND LOGISTICS:
FOREIGN FIGHTER INVOLVEMENT (CHINESE MERCENARY):
RUF EW CAPABILITIES AND DEPLOYMENT:
STRATEGIC DEFENSE OF POKROVSK-KONSTANTINOVKA AXIS:
ENHANCE COUNTER-UAS AND COUNTER-BATTERY OPERATIONS:
PREPARE FOR ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE:
MAINTAIN AND EXPLOIT DEEP STRIKE CAPABILITIES:
COUNTER RUF INFORMATION WARFARE:
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