Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF MoD officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, supported by RUF sources "Воин DV" and "Басурин о главном" with video confirming liberation of Yalta (DNR) by "Vostok" Group. UAF General Staff reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction, confirming active combat in these claimed areas. UAF drone footage shows dozens of RUF casualties from a "meat grinder" assault near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms RUF control of Novoserhiivka in the Pokrovsk area. DeepState confirms map updates for this area. RUF "Операция Z" provides aerial drone footage confirming combat operations and destruction in SHEVCHENKO (DNR). RUF MoD video depicts 152-mm Msta-B howitzers of the 90th Guards Tank Division destroying an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk axis). RUF TASS reports RUF forces used "Geranium-2" (Shahed) to strike a temporary UAF deployment point near Novoekonomicheskoe in DNR. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk Oblast. DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast). RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts first-person video of RUF storming an enemy strongpoint. RUF "Воин DV" provides video footage of FAB strikes by the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army on UAF strongholds of the 2nd Battalion, 141st Mechanized Brigade. New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for the Konstantinovka - Yablonovka area. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts FPV drone video from Pokrovsk area. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and vehicles in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA UAF personnel during a rotation attempt. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing RUF personnel "burning out" in forests and tree lines. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," displaying a map overlay indicating Russian advances. RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions. STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides FPV drone video showing destruction of RUF personnel near Pokrovsk. УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming more than 40 combat engagements took place. UAF units successfully repelled 38 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction today. Enemy forces conducted 6 airstrikes in the Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff reports 40 combat engagements have taken place since 22:00. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction. Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area. Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, likely by "Рубикон" unit. RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment. Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR and begun fighting for its liberation. TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction. WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, which includes a tactical map of the Donetsk front indicating RUF advances and ongoing operations. WarGonzo also provides a tactical map for the Chasovoyarskoye direction. RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire on enemy positions. Mash na Donbasse reports drones observed over Donetsk in Kuybyshevsky and Kyivsky districts. New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction. New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment. RUF TASS reports an RUF strike on a UAF temporary deployment point near Shakhove, DNR. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports fierce battles continuing north of Novoserhiivka, specifically in the areas of Molodetske and Udachne, and explicitly states that the important T0406 highway supplying the Ukrainian grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is under RUF fire control. Colonelcassad posts video of RUF drone operators from the "Vostok" Group of Forces operating in the Southern Donetsk direction. Mash на Донбассе video shows dewatering operations from an underground structure in Chernihivska district, Donetsk. Народная милиция ДНР (RUF source) provides aerial video footage of explosions and targeting reticles near Popovo Yar. Воин DV (RUF source) provides aerial video showing an FPV drone strike on an enemy mortar in Karl Marx (Mirne). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) - Shevchenko - Belgium. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF has taken control of the second of four major lithium deposits in Ukraine, located near Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction). Mash on Donbas provides video of a hurricane in Luhansk. TASS reports at least 15 Ukrainian UAVs attacked the administration of Troitske district in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides photo messages from Troitske, Luhansk, confirming 15 drones destroyed the administration building. УНН (UAF Source) reports that UAF units repelled all enemy attacks in the Lyman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 22 dead and nearly 300 wounded. TASS reports RUF "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetropsk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms state initiatives for financial aid to families and the "Safe Community" forum. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports multiple FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district. RUF has launched additional missiles towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful UAF AD against missiles heading towards Dnipro. Serhii Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OGA) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities. ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in a Russian attack on Nikopol. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk. UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports an increased death toll in Dnipro. UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) released a video showcasing the police and emergency services' response. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target heading for Dnipro, and later Samara. RUF "Операция Z" reports strikes on enemy targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Samara. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped this week, and the contact line is stabilized. The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 14 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. RUF source "Два майора" provides video of an aerial reconnaissance footage in the Sumy direction. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. "Сливочный каприз" (RUF) posts a map labeled "Sumy - Alekseevka." UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast. TASS (RUF source) photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast. "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" reports a group of enemy strike UAVs heading south in northern Sumy Oblast. Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions in Sumy direction, near Andreevka. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video footage captioned "Воздушные бои в Сумской области: ВДВ завоёвывают господство в воздухе," showing aerial reconnaissance with targeting crosshairs and explosions on the ground. Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. WarGonzo provides a tactical map for the Sumy direction. RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast. UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast in the direction of Sumy. RBK-Ukraina confirms. Later, UAF Air Force reports another target in Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports Sumy under ballistic strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum. UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian infantry of the 58th Motorized Brigade undergoing training on identifying and understanding various anti-tank mines. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week. UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" warns of KABs over Kharkiv Oblast. UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" provides video of new recruits of the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting live-fire training with an M60 machine gun. RUF "Colonelcassad" provides video showing drone operators of "Zapad" Group destroying a pickup truck and UAF personnel on the Krasnolymansk direction. УНН (UAF Source) reports over 113 square kilometers of territory in Kharkiv Oblast has been demined, and 9,936 explosive objects neutralized. УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces killed 250 Russian soldiers and destroyed 46 pieces of enemy military equipment in the Kharkiv direction in the last day. УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces repelled 3 attacks in the Kupyansk direction. Nikolaevskiy Vanek (UAF Source) reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kharkiv towards Zmiyiv. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Kharkiv. ASTRA reports a drunk RUF soldier ran over a 16-year-old girl in Belgorod Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation. ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction of residential buildings. "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Russian forces are storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front, advancing forward. DeepState reports RUF advances near Kamyanske. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "All clear" for air raid alert, followed by a new alert. РБК-Україна reports fires and damage to non-residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 6 UAVs hit Zaporizhzhia overnight. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video of the aftermath. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 333 strikes on 14 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the last day. RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating an imminent major RUF offensive. ASTRA reports a damaged industrial enterprise building in Zaporizhzhia. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia OMA reports 79-year-old wounded in Huliaipole community. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked a group of ZNPP staff 350 meters from the blocks, but no casualties. RUF "Операция Z" reports a UAF drone attack on ZNPP staff. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video discussing the procurement and use of military equipment, specifically drones and ATVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports successful Lancet strike on UAF boat in Dnipro River. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports that a 5-person RUF delegation visited homes in occupied Kakhovka yesterday, marking "unowned" houses. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an explosion and fire in Odessa during a night attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site. RUF "Два майора" shares video of a person walking in an urban courtyard in Kyiv, suggesting continued RUF surveillance. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports SBU has sentenced a "Rashist" (Russian) in absentia to life imprisonment. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts video of an event related to a Russian missile strike on Solomianskyi district. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" provides video footage of an incident in Kyiv, showing a sudden explosion near a parked car. KMVA posts multiple photo messages showing ongoing cleanup. РБК-Україна reports that the air defense system is working in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv due to UAV threat. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." РБК-Україна reports "explosions heard in Kyiv." Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports a MiG-31K in the air from Savasleyka, with possible launches. РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine. UAF sources report missiles (likely Kinzhals) heading towards Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later "minus" on Kinzhals. РБК-Україна reports continued explosions in Kyiv and AD activity, likely against UAVs. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kyiv, heading west. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles entering Bila Tserkva district (Kyiv Oblast). KMVA reports air raid alert has been lifted for Kyiv. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on weapon/ammunition warehouses in Boryspil and Hostomel near Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was under massive drone and missile attack overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):

  • Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka. UAF General Staff reports 4 combat engagements, all repelled.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. UAF General Staff reports 5 combat engagements, all repelled.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar.
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile threat for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Cruise missiles detected moving towards Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 19 enemy UAVs shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. UAF General Staff reports 365 targets neutralized out of 371 air targets launched by RUF overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany. TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for "Fundamentals of Homeland Security." TASS reports a Chinese journalist was wounded in Kursk Oblast during a UAF strike. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. RUF "Два майора" reports an attack by enemy (UAF) on a gas station in Volokonovsky district, Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports Medvedev stated that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast. WarGonzo reports three people wounded in Bryansk after a UAF UAV strike. Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka. Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction. Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing Russian military personnel preparing and deploying an FPV drone. TASS reports a court placed the former head of Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management) in Udmurtia under arrest. RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk. RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control. TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned. ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk. TASS reports an ongoing prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine under Istanbul agreements. RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts video of a Russian deputy stating men go to war due to poverty. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The Washington Post stated Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse. TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells. TASS reports Putin has arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit. ASTRA reports a military deserter in Udmurtia opened fire on police and fled into the forest. UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) video highlights "Operation Interflex." Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms. TASS (RUF source) video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (Ukrainian source reporting on Russian content) video shows a Russian "SVO veteran" complaining about job rejections. Офіс Генерального прокурора (UAF source) reports charges against four individuals for embezzling 1.6M UAH in charity donations for UAF in Sumy Oblast. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RUF source) photo message with caption "A conscript signed a contract". РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports RUF has launched nearly 6,000 cluster munitions on Ukraine. Стрелков Игорь Иванович (RUF source) criticizes Russian authorities for "indistinct movements". STERNENKO (UAF source) video shows 1129th ZRP destroying 7 UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) GUR reports striking Russian S-400 system in Crimea using a drone, with video evidence. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (GUR) (UAF source) reports their "Ghosts" special unit struck critical and expensive S-400 Triumph AD system components in occupied Crimea using drones. ASTRA (RUF source) posts video about a UAF drone strike on a missile fuel warehouse in Bryansk. TASS reports 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various regions of the RF and the Black Sea. ТАСС reports 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. TASS reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volzhsky and two districts of Volgograd Oblast. TASS reports temporary movement restrictions on the bridge over the Don River in Kalachevsky district, Volgograd Oblast. Rostov Oblast interim governor reports AD activity overnight with no casualties. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport have been lifted. ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine. RUF "Два майора" is recruiting for the "African Corps" from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. RUF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video of an FSB interrogation of a detained individual in Crimea, claiming he confessed to working for SSU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Vinnitsia Oblast: НгП раZVедка (RUF source) makes a derogatory comment about Vinnitsia being a "subsidized" area. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), and later reports 2 missiles and 2 "mopeds" (Shaheds) from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later reports "minus" on Kinzhals. "Suspilne" confirms explosions in the area. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims hypersonic "Kinzhals" struck the UAF airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Nikolaevskiy Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs were shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Armenia: TASS reports that priests and believers are preventing Armenian National Security Service special forces from detaining Archbishop Mikael. Alex Parker Returns claims Armenian National Security Service special forces stormed the residence of the head of the Armenian Church and detained priests. ASTRA reports security forces came to the residence of the Catholicos. Два майора claims an "inside" report that the Catholicos refusal to "look at Pashinyan's penis" provoked authorities to send special forces. TASS reports Service Nationale de securite directs new forces from Yerevan to Echmiadzin to detain Archbishop Mikael. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Ingushetia, RF: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that an explosive device detonated near a police college building in Nazran, Ingushetia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Recent heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• The confirmed fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Transbaikalia, due to natural fires, implies dry conditions and fire hazards in some parts of RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• A reported fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, could release hazardous materials. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video from Odessa (night attack) shows significant fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kharkiv Oblast Governor's report of demining operations underscores the continued environmental hazard. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Mash on Donbas video of a hurricane in Luhansk indicates significant localized severe weather. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows clear black smoke plume rising from Bryansk after UAV fragments caused fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video from Kursk Oblast, Sudzha, shows damaged buildings and debris, with dialogue mentioning "dilapidated" houses and previous shelling, indicating the environmental impact of combat operations in this border area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• "Новости Москвы" satellite image shows cloud formations and radiation temperature, implying continued monitoring of weather and environmental conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations, notably on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Confirmed capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko. RUF consolidating gains in Yalta and Dyleyevka. UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks, inflicting high RUF casualties. RUF artillery and drone strikes continue. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video confirms successful FPV drone strike against RUF "Grad" MLRS. UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes targeting northern Donetsk. UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" releases video of 78th Separate Assault Regiment conducting trench assaults. RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area. RUF "Colonelcassad" video of first-person assault on an enemy strongpoint. RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds. RUF "Colonelcassad" reporting on "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation." RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests active RUF planning. RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk. DeepState map updates confirm RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, and Vilne Pole. RUF "Операция Z" video shows thermal/night vision drone footage of UAF infantry and vehicles targeted in Kupyansk. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides thermal/night vision video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and a vehicle in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing successful UAF engagements against RUF personnel. RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," providing a map illustrating RUF ground advances. RUF "MoD Russia" video shows servicemen of 6th Motorised Rifle Division (Yug Group of Forces) honing skills with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in rear area. RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions. Два майора (RUF Source) posts video from "Константиновское направление. От элиты Армии России: от штурмовиков" showing an assault detachment. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing reconnaissance from 69th Separate Brigade targeting and destroying a camouflaged UAF T-72M1 tank with two FPV drones. Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border. УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction (40+ engagements, 38 repelled) and 6 airstrikes. UAF repelled 4 engagements in Siversk direction and 5 in Kramatorsk. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs. Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing Russian military personnel preparing and deploying an FPV drone. RUF "Colonelcassad" posts multiple photo messages of destroyed, damaged, and captured Ukrainian armored vehicles. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area. Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, possibly by "Рубикон" unit. RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment. Colonelcassad posts a video of Special Forces soldiers from the Siversk direction expressing gratitude for a DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopter. Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR. TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction. WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, with tactical maps of Donetsk and Chasovoyarskoye directions. RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire. New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post. New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment. New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge. RUF Воин DV provides video of 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta. RUF Kotsnews provides drone footage compilation showing a 'Bradley' IFV and other destroyed enemy equipment. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" explicitly reports that fierce fighting continues north of Novoserhiivka, specifically in the areas of Molodetske and Udachne, and states that the important T0406 highway supplying the Ukrainian grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is under RUF fire control. Mash на Донбассе video shows dewatering operations from an underground structure in Chernihivska district, Donetsk. Народная милиция ДНР (RUF source) provides aerial video footage of explosions near Popovo Yar. Воин DV (RUF source) provides aerial video showing an FPV drone strike on an enemy mortar in Karl Marx (Mirne). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) - Shevchenko - Belgium. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF has taken control of the second of four major lithium deposits in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF aviation airstrikes continue. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train. Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation. RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Russian forces are storming Kamyanske. DeepState reports RUF advances near Kamyanske. RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating an imminent major RUF offensive. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked a group of ZNPP staff. RUF "Операция Z" reports a UAF drone attack on ZNPP staff. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports RUF delegation marking "unowned" houses in occupied Kakhovka. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for all).

• RF Territory: FSB has detained a healthcare worker in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for allegedly collecting patient data for Ukrainian special services. TASS video shows the arrest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Key Changes from Previous Reports

• Increased Dnipro Casualty Count: The death toll from the June 24 missile attack on Dnipro has increased to 22, highlighting the continued severe civilian impact of RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Significant Air Attack Volume: Ukraine was subjected to a massive overnight attack by 8 missiles and 363 drones (total 371 targets), with the primary target being Starokostiantyniv. This confirms an extremely high intensity and volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Claim of Crimean Agent Network Disruption: RUF FSB claims to have detained a Crimean resident for collecting intelligence on transport infrastructure and military units for the SBU, and video of a confession has been released. New video by TASS shows the detention of a healthcare worker in Melitopol for alleged similar activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• New UAF Air Interdiction: UAF Air Force reports shooting down a RUF reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast. Additionally, 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs were shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Internal Social/Economic Measures: Reports of people with depression potentially losing driving licenses and cuts to Russian bonuses indicate new internal social control measures and potential economic strain affecting the Russian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Internal Military Incidents: A serviceman reportedly shot at police in Udmurtia. A drunk RUF military member hit and killed a 16-year-old girl in Belgorod Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Internal Corruption Update: Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov is confirmed to be in court for a pre-trial hearing related to a high-level corruption case. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Combat Footage from Yalta (Confirmed Capture): New video from RUF "Voina DV" explicitly shows RUF 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Air-to-Ground Strike in Kursk Oblast: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video evidence of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast, indicating successful UAF cross-border aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Appeal for Donations (Pokrovsk): RUF "Два майора" is directly appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Interest in Iranian AD: Colonelcassad reports on an Iranian short-range AD system ("Majid") used to intercept Israeli drones, indicating RUF's continued interest in foreign AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Southern Front Report: UAF "Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy" reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF Breakthrough Threatening UAF Logistics in Donetsk: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" explicitly reports that fighting north of Novoserhiivka is occurring in Molodetske and Udachne, and that the critical T0406 highway supplying the Ukrainian grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is now under RUF fire control. This confirms a significant and direct threat to a vital UAF logistics artery. New RUF tactical map for the Krasnoarmeysk-Shevchenko-Belgium area reinforces this. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF has taken control of the second of four major lithium deposits in Ukraine, located near Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF African Corps Recruitment: RUF "Два майора" is openly advertising recruitment for the "African Corps" by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including both male and female medical personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UAF Intercepts Unusual RUF Radio Communications: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports the 63rd Brigade intercepted unusual enemy radio conversations, indicating potential RUF tactical distress or operational shifts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Continued Civilian Impacts in Dnipro (Video): UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" released a video showing emergency response and damage in Dnipro, reinforcing the severity of civilian impact from recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Upgraded Shahed-136 MS with AI/Camera: Operatyvnyi ZSU (GUR) reports on a new series of Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs with integrated cameras and AI, indicating a significant RUF capability upgrade for reconnaissance and precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Armenian Internal Security Incidents: TASS and Рыбарь report on Armenian national security services active near the Catholicos residence in Echmiadzin and physical altercations. New videos from Alex Parker Returns and Два майора confirm security forces storming the Catholicos's residence and detaining priests. TASS further reports new forces are being sent from Yerevan to Echmiadzin to detain the Archbishop. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UAF Operational Status Update from Umierov: UAF Defense Minister Umierov confirms over 50% of planned fortifications for the year have been completed and that contract units (18-24 years old) are showing effective results. He also reports North Korea has already committed 11,000 elite troops to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - for Umierov's statements).
• NEW: ZNPP Drone Attack Claim: TASS and Два майора (RUF sources) report a UAF drone attack on ZNPP staff near the blocks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - for the claim, LOW CONFIDENCE - for independent verification of UAF action).
• NEW: Estonia's Nuclear Willingness: TASS reports Estonia's MOD is ready to host NATO nuclear-capable aircraft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Forced Mobilization in Transbaikalia: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that budget employees (public sector workers) are being forced to recruit men for the war in Transbaikalia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF Internal Control Measures (Bryansk): TASS reports that fines have been introduced in Bryansk Oblast for "inclining women to abortion," signaling a tightening of social control measures within Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Internal Security Incident in Ingushetia: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an explosive device detonated near a police college in Nazran, Ingushetia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Sumy under Ballistic Attack: UAF Air Force and RBK-Ukraina confirm high-speed targets and explosions in Sumy Oblast, likely ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: UK Refusing Ukrainian Refugees: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Britain is mass-refusing asylum to Ukrainians, sending them to "safe regions" per The Guardian. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: FSB Detains Healthcare Worker in Melitopol: TASS reports FSB detained a healthcare worker in Melitopol for collecting data on patients for Ukrainian special services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF Seizes MoD Financial Assets: TASS reports arrest of financial assets of Oleg Vasenin, Deputy Head of the Property Management Department of the Russian MoD, valued at 200 million rubles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Turkish Army Drone Scandal: Colonelcassad reports a scandal in the Turkish army with the arrest of officers managing drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 50,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, and continues sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including confirmed capture of Yalta, Dyleyevka, Novoserhiivka, and Shevchenko. New RUF advances north of Yablonivka toward Konstantinovka are confirmed. RUF is also confirmed to be storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. New RUF reports confirm their forces have entered Udachne, a critical logistics hub, and are fighting for its liberation. RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating preparations for a major offensive. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. RUF "Два майора" reports an assault detachment on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued ground pressure with specialized units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • North Korean Troop Deployment: UAF Defense Minister Umierov reports that North Korea has already committed 11,000 elite military personnel to Russia for the war against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - for Umierov's statement. This is a significant and immediate development if confirmed by independent sources).
  • Air & Missile Forces: RUF is capable of massed, high-volume missile and drone attacks, including ballistic missiles (Iskander, Kinzhal), cruise missiles (Kalibr), and a range of UAVs including upgraded Shahed-136 MS with integrated cameras and AI. They possess KAB-enabled tactical aviation for close air support and deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Naval Forces: RUF continues to maintain naval presence in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including missile carriers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Nuclear Posture: RF MoD states Yars mobile missile systems are on combat patrol routes as part of planned exercises, a routine display of strategic force readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Hybrid/Information Warfare: RUF is actively employing IO, including claims of UAF attacks on ZNPP personnel and attempts to influence global narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security: RUF maintains capabilities for robust internal security operations, including intelligence gathering, arrests of alleged foreign agents, and suppressing dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Intentions:

  • Seize Donetsk Oblast: RUF's primary strategic objective remains the full capture of Donetsk Oblast, with a current focus on Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis by exploiting breakthroughs around Udachne and Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka.
  • Force UAF Redeployment: Maintain significant pressure on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes to fix UAF forces, preventing their redeployment to the more contested Donetsk front.
  • Degrade UAF Capabilities & Morale: Continue massed air and missile strikes against UAF military-industrial facilities, logistics, and population centers.
  • Project Global Power & Influence: Leverage alliances (Belarus, North Korea, BRICS-interested nations) and internal security narratives to solidify internal control, project international influence, and demonstrate resilience against Western pressure.
  • Disrupt Western Aid: Potentially expand efforts to disrupt Western military aid supply lines, including those on NATO territory.
  • Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories: Systematically seize strategic resources like lithium deposits in occupied Donetsk, and implement administrative control (e.g., house marking in Kakhovka).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Immediate Exploitation of Breakthroughs: RUF is demonstrating intent to immediately exploit tactical gains, as evidenced by the reported entry into Udachne directly following advances in Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, and the reported fire control over the T0406 highway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Increased Use of Thermal/Night Vision Drones: RUF "Операция Z" and "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provide new thermal/night vision drone footage from Pokrovsk and Southern Donetsk, indicating a heightened capability for night operations and targeting UAF personnel during rotations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Persistent FPV Drone Operations: Continued use of FPV drones by RUF across various axes (Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kursk border) confirms their integral role in RUF tactical operations. This also includes new RUF capabilities to counter "Baba Yaga" type UAF drones using FPV drones. Serhii Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OGA) reports continued FPV drone attacks on Nikopol district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• New Anti-Drone Missile for Pantsir: RUF's receipt of TKB-1055 mini-missiles for Pantsir systems specifically for anti-drone defense indicates a direct adaptation to the increased drone threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Integrated Air-Ground Coordination: RUF continues to demonstrate effective coordination between FAB strikes (heavy aerial bombardment) and ground advances, particularly observed in Donetsk Oblast. RUF "Воин DV" video shows daily artillery support by 36th Army for assault units, confirming integrated fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Consolidation of Control in Occupied Territories: Reports of RUF delegations marking "unowned" houses in Kakhovka signal systematic efforts to confiscate property and consolidate administrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Continued Reliance on Attritional Assaults: The high RUF casualties reported near Pokrovsk from "meat grinder" assaults indicate a continued, albeit costly, reliance on human wave tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Expanded Cross-Border Operations: RUF reconnaissance and destruction operations in Sumy/Chernihiv buffer zones and engagements near Tyotkino (Kursk Oblast) indicate active efforts to secure border areas. UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast, confirming UAF cross-border aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Increased RUF Air Operations in Sumy: New RUF reporting of "air battles" and VDV involvement in "gaining air superiority" in Sumy Oblast, along with new reports of a RUF drone group moving west and towards Chernihiv Oblast. The presence of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) in Sumy Oblast further confirms a higher-tier RUF force committed to this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Targeting of UAF Armored Vehicles for Propaganda: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts multiple images of destroyed/captured UAF armored vehicles with a strong propaganda caption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Continued Pressure on Toretsk Axis: The new RUF tactical map for Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka explicitly confirms continued RUF operational planning for advances on the Toretsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Demining Operations in Occupied Territories: The new report of VDV sappers demining Bakhmut confirms RUF's ongoing efforts to secure captured areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Adaptation to UAF Deep Strikes on RF Territory: The reporting of RUF AD activity in Rostov and Volgograd and temporary airport closures indicate that UAF deep strikes are forcing RUF to divert resources and attention to homeland defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Strategic Missile Force Drills: The RF MoD confirming Yars mobile missile systems on combat patrol routes highlights a routine, yet significant, display of strategic force readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF Internal Military Discipline Concerns: RUF military bloggers (Филолог в засаде) are openly discussing "Unauthorized Abandonment of Unit" (AWOL) and advocating for stricter penalties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Anticipation of Major Offensive on Zaporizhzhia Front: RUF "Операция Z" explicitly states Russia will launch a powerful offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction in the coming days, citing UAF reports of large equipment and ammunition movements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• New Forced Mobilization Tactics: ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine, indicating a new, likely desperate, form of forced mobilization or recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Tracking of NATO Force Posture: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claiming that the American contingent in Europe will not decrease in the near future indicates RUF's continued tracking of NATO force posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Drone Interception: New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Upgraded Shahed-136 MS with AI/Camera: Operatyvnyi ZSU (GUR) reports on a new series of Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs with integrated cameras and AI. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Recruitment for "African Corps": RUF "Два майора" is actively recruiting for the "African Corps" from the Ministry of Defense, including women medics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Intensified Intelligence/Counter-Intelligence in Crimea: The RUF FSB reports of arresting a "traitor" and his confession in Crimea for gathering intelligence for Ukraine and planning attacks, highlights persistent UAF efforts to gain intelligence on Russian forces in occupied Crimea and RUF's adaptive counter-intelligence measures. The detention of a healthcare worker in Melitopol for similar activities reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Internal Social Control (Bryansk): TASS reports the introduction of fines in Bryansk Oblast for "inclining women to abortion," indicating a tightening of social control measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Intensified Recruitment (Ukraine): Colonelcassad posts video showing what it claims is forced mobilization in Ukraine, indicating RUF is actively trying to portray UAF recruitment as involuntary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF Seizure of MoD Financial Assets: The arrest of financial assets of Oleg Vasenin, Deputy Head of the Property Management Department of the Russian MoD, indicates an internal crackdown on corruption or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Vulnerability of Rail Logistics: UAF successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirm a significant vulnerability in RUF's rail-based logistics network. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Bryansk Fuel Depot Strike: The confirmed GUR drone strike on a missile fuel and lubricants warehouse in Bryansk represents a significant blow to RUF logistical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Public Support for Equipment: RUF sources continue to post appeals for public donations for military equipment (e.g., night vision, body armor, thermal imagers), suggesting ongoing reliance on supplementary public funding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Security Challenges on Logistics: Reports of aid theft by ethnic minorities in Podmoskovye highlight potential internal security and logistical integrity issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Impact of Weather on Logistics: Hurricane in Luhansk and heavy rain in Moscow indicate localized weather events that could impact ground and air logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Logistical Strain from RF Domestic UAV Activity: Airport closures in Samara and Saratov due to UAV threats, along with reported AD activity in Rostov and Volgograd, indicate that UAF deep strikes are forcing RUF to divert resources and attention to homeland defense, potentially straining logistics for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Forced Mobilization Impact: ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine. This indicates that traditional volunteer recruitment is insufficient, highlighting a potential strain on manpower sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Economic Strain: RUF Новости Москвы reports Russians are having their bonuses cut, which may indicate economic strain potentially impacting civilian morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: RUF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video from a charity fund appealing for help, highlighting the continued, and possibly growing, reliance on non-state sources to support the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Centralized Decision-Making: Putin's direct engagement with Lukashenko on bilateral relations and Belousov's public statements at the SCO indicate a centralized and top-down command structure for strategic and diplomatic initiatives. The RF MoD reporting Yars missile systems on combat patrol also reflects centralized strategic command. The arrest of a Deputy Head of MoD property management Oleg Vasenin and seizure of assets indicates a potential top-down internal crackdown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Adaptive IO Response: RUF's rapid adaptation of IO narratives (e.g., blame-shifting for civilian casualties, leveraging the Chinese journalist incident) and the prisoner exchange for propaganda, demonstrates effective, centrally coordinated information warfare. The pre-positioning of "LOUD" warnings for Kyiv and subsequent missile launches indicates coordinated IO ahead of kinetic strikes. RUF channels are celebrating the current missile strikes. RUF IO claiming SBU targets Akhmat command staff is a further coordinated narrative. A new narrative discrediting UK intelligence is emerging, indicating continued development of IO lines. RUF "Операция Z" pre-announcing a major offensive on Zaporizhzhia is a new, coordinated IO tactic. RUF Два майора uses Armenian internal unrest to frame Zelenskyy as a "military dictator" and imply similar methods. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Dissent: Igor Strelkov's public criticism of Russian authorities' "indistinct movements" and "complete lack of strategy" indicates continued, albeit contained, internal dissent within the hardline pro-war community. Discussions on "Unauthorized Abandonment of Unit" (AWOL) by RUF military bloggers also reveal internal challenges with discipline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Increased Internal Security Measures: The intensified FSB activity, arrests for alleged espionage, and heightened rhetoric regarding "foreign agents" and "sleeper cells" suggest a proactive C2 response to perceived internal threats. New reports of anarchist disappearances and arrests for document forgery related to migrants underscore this. The detention of a healthcare worker in Melitopol and a Crimean resident for SBU links, along with videos of confessions, demonstrates active RUF counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Response to Cross-Border Strikes: The immediate reporting and deployment of AD assets in response to UAV activity over Rostov and Volgograd and airport closures indicate a functional, albeit reactive, C2 system for homeland air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Recruitment for "African Corps" by MoD: The direct recruitment for the "African Corps" by the Ministry of Defense, as advertised by "Два майора," indicates a centralized and coordinated effort to expand RUF's global military presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Armenian Internal Security Incidents: TASS and Рыбарь report on Armenian national security services active near the Catholicos residence in Echmiadzin. TASS reports new forces from Yerevan are being sent to detain the Archbishop. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Ingushetia Internal Security: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an explosive device detonation near a police college in Nazran, Ingushetia. This points to C2 challenges in maintaining internal security in volatile regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Northern Axis Defensive Success: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms the successful halting and stabilization of the ~50,000-strong RUF offensive on the Sumy axis. This demonstrates effective defensive planning, force allocation, and unit readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Active Defense in Donetsk: UAF forces are actively engaged in defending against RUF advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, inflicting high casualties on RUF "meat grinder" assaults. UAF is actively clearing trenches and conducting assaults with units like the 78th Separate Assault Regiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Enhanced Air Defense: UAF continues to demonstrate effective multi-layered air defense capabilities, with 17 Shahed UAVs destroyed over Odesa, 7 UAVs by 1129th ZRP, and active AD responses in Kyiv Oblast and Mykolaiv. The development and testing of drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia indicate ongoing efforts to enhance AD. The nationwide air raid alert and reports of MiG-31K launches demonstrate UAF's immediate response. Latest reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirm successful interception ("minus") of the current missile wave, and the number of remaining Shaheds has decreased to 2. UAF AD is currently active in Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv. 19 enemy UAVs were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade DSHV of the UAF demonstrates a Ukrainian-made "Safari" HG-105M semi-automatic shotgun with anti-drone capabilities. New "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Shahed being shot down by an interceptor drone. New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. UAF Air Force reports 365 targets neutralized out of 371. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Indigenous Strike Capabilities: UAF continues to develop and employ indigenous long-range strike capabilities, demonstrated by successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in Zaporizhzhia and the confirmed GUR strike on the Bryansk fuel warehouse. The claimed "Peklo" missile-drone, if verified, would represent a significant new capability. GUR's "Ghosts" unit successfully struck S-400 system components in Crimea. UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Force Generation & Training: UAF is actively conducting training for new recruits and participating in "Operation Interflex" with numerous international partners. UAF Defense Minister Umierov confirms that over 50% of the planned fortification construction for this year has been completed and that contract units (18-24 years old) are showing effective results. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Morale Boost from POW Exchange: The confirmed prisoner exchange and associated emotional reunions will provide a significant morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Challenges:
  • Continued Civilian Casualties: RUF strikes continue to cause significant civilian casualties (e.g., 22 KIA in Dnipro, new damage in Zaporizhzhia), placing strain on civilian services and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Corruption: Reports of charity fraud against UAF in Sumy Oblast and high-profile cases (e.g., Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov) highlight persistent internal corruption issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Ongoing Resource Needs: Appeals for aid for soldiers and Zelenskyy's statement on budget shortfalls highlight critical constraints. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Demining Operations: The vast scale of demining efforts in Kharkiv Oblast underscore the vast scale of unexploded ordnance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Persistent Air Threat: The continued high volume and sophistication of RUF air and missile strikes pose a continuous challenge to UAF AD systems and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Immediate Ground Threat: The claimed RUF entry into Udachne represents an immediate and severe ground threat, potentially disrupting critical GLOCs. The announced imminent major RUF offensive in Zaporizhzhia poses a new immediate ground threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Naval Presence: UAF Naval Forces report on continued RUF naval presence in Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including missile carriers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • High Enemy Losses (Self-Reported): UAF General Staff and other Ukrainian sources report +970 liquidated Russian personnel in the last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • POW Treatment/IO: The RUF TASS video of a Ukrainian POW claiming SBU may pressure families of captured soldiers is a clear RUF IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • SBU Counter-Intelligence: UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU detained another agent of RUF GRU in Donetsk region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: ZNPP Threat: TASS reports a UAF drone attacked ZNPP staff. This is an RUF claim that UAF is targeting critical nuclear infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - for the RUF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE - for independent verification of UAF action).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS: Sumy Offensive Halted: UAF has successfully halted and stabilized the large-scale RUF offensive on the Sumy axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS: Logistics Interdiction: Successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in Zaporizhzhia and the GUR strike on the Bryansk fuel warehouse represent significant blows to RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS: S-400 Strike: GUR's confirmed strike on S-400 AD system components in Crimea demonstrates a critical capability against high-value RUF targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS: High RUF Casualties in Donetsk: UAF drone footage confirms dozens of RUF casualties from "meat grinder" assaults near Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff and other UAF sources confirm +970 liquidated Russian personnel in the last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS: FPV Drone Kill of RUF MLRS: Successful UAF FPV drone strike destroying a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS demonstrates effective tactical targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS (PARTIAL): Missile and UAV Interception: Latest reports indicate successful interception ("minus") of the current missile wave, and a reduced number of remaining Shaheds. 19 enemy UAVs were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. New "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Shahed being shot down by an interceptor drone. New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones. UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. UAF Air Force reports 365 targets neutralized out of 371. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 2 Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed UAVs shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS: New Domestic Anti-Drone Weapon: The demonstration of the Ukrainian-made "Safari" HG-105M semi-automatic shotgun with anti-drone capabilities represents a successful adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SUCCESS: EU Financial Aid for 2025 agreed: EU agreed to allocate 30.6 billion EUR to Ukraine in 2025, bypassing Hungary's veto. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SETBACK: RUF Territorial Gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia: RUF has confirmed the capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, and made advances north of Yablonivka, impacting UAF defensive lines and threatening critical GLOCs towards Udachne and Konstantinovka. RUF also claims to have liberated a significant lithium deposit in the area. Additionally, RUF is confirmed to be advancing in Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia. The new RUF claim of entering Udachne is a significant immediate setback, directly threatening UAF logistics. RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports the T0406 highway is under RUF fire control, implying a major tactical success for RUF in disrupting UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SETBACK: Mass Civilian Casualties: The ballistic missile strike on Dnipro resulting in 22 KIA and nearly 300 WIA underscores the continued, and potentially increasing, civilian cost of RUF's terror bombing campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• SETBACK: Kyiv Oblast Under Massive Attack: The report that Kyiv Oblast was under "massive drone and missile attack overnight" indicates a significant RUF effort to target the capital region, potentially straining UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• NEW: Sumy under Ballistic Attack: Explosions in Sumy from high-speed targets confirm a new, direct threat to the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: The sheer volume of RUF air attacks (371 targets overnight) places immense strain on UAF air defense munition stockpiles. This remains a critical and urgent requirement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Artillery Ammunition: Continued intense combat on the Donetsk axis indicates a high consumption rate of artillery ammunition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Drones and EW Systems: While UAF is expanding FPV drone production, the persistent RUF drone and loitering munition threats necessitate continuous supply of counter-drone EW systems and AD assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Medical Supplies and Evacuation: The high civilian casualty count in Dnipro and ongoing combat indicate continued high demand for medical supplies and rapid evacuation capabilities. Appeals for blood donations reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Anti-Corruption Efforts: The high-profile corruption cases (e.g., Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov, charity fraud in Sumy) indicate a constraint on efficient resource allocation and potential for undermining public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Financial Aid: President Zelenskyy's statements regarding budget shortfalls underscore the critical reliance on sustained international financial support. The EU's agreement to provide EUR 30.6 billion for 2025 is a positive development but needs to be consistently fulfilled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Personnel: High attrition on both sides means continued demand for force generation and training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Demining Resources: The vast scale of demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast highlights the long-term commitment and significant resources required. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Rehabilitation/Support for Veterans: The focus by regional administrations on veteran support indicates a growing requirement for these services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF Narratives:

  • Blaming UAF AD for Civilian Casualties: RUF consistently attempts to shift blame for civilian casualties in Kyiv onto UAF air defense operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dehumanization and Justification: Continued use of derogatory terms ("Хохол"), swastika imagery, and claims of UAF "militants" aim to dehumanize the enemy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Pyrrhic Victories / UAF Weakness: RUF frames UAF's economic situation as collapse and highlights UAF equipment losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Strength and Self-Sufficiency: Promotion of domestic military production and highlighting public fundraising efforts aims to project resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Global Geopolitics and Anti-Westernism: RUF leverages diplomatic events, regional conflicts, and international political figures to sow discord and undermine international support. New narratives discrediting Western intelligence agencies are emerging. TASS reports Netanyahu used his son's wedding as a distraction for strikes on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security Threats: RUF continues to promote narratives of Ukrainian special services infiltrating Russia with "sleeper cells," often linking them to Central Asian migrants. The reported arrest of a "traitor" in Crimea and allegations of SBU targeting Akhmat command staff serve this purpose. RUF also claims UAF drone attacked ZNPP personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Humanitarian Image: RUF attempts to project a humanitarian image through prisoner exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Military Successes: RUF military bloggers actively disseminate combat footage, tactical maps, and BDA to emphasize their advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Recruitment Propaganda: RUF "Два майора" posts a video portraying a tank commander ("Poet"). Direct recruitment for the "African Corps" is also propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Normalcy Propaganda: "Новости Москвы" posts a video of a gazelle in a zoo, likely an attempt to show normal civilian life in Russia. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Blaming UAF for Ukrainian Forced Mobilization: Colonelcassad explicitly shares video of forced mobilization in Ukraine, aiming to portray UAF recruitment as abusive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Portraying Internal Armenian Instability: RUF sources are amplifying reports of security forces storming the Catholicos's residence in Armenia, often linking it to Zelenskyy's alleged methods. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: UK Refusing Ukrainian Refugees: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Britain is mass-refusing asylum to Ukrainians, which RUF will use to portray a lack of Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• UAF Narratives:

  • Heroism and Resilience: Focus on successful AD operations, effective defense (Sumy), high RUF casualties, and the morale boost from POW exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russian Atrocities: Highlighting civilian casualties from RUF missile strikes and damage to civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Accountability: Reporting on war crimes investigations and corruption cases demonstrates commitment to justice. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • International Support and Training: Emphasizing joint military exercises ("Operation Interflex") and international financial aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Innovation and Adaptation: Showcasing new domestic weapons and adaptive tactics (drone fishing). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Humanitarian Aspect: Focusing on the return of Ukrainian POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Russian Internal Distress: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" highlighting unusual RUF radio communications and soldier distress provides a narrative of RUF weakness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Future Peace Talks Agenda: UAF Defense Minister Umierov outlines Ukraine's plan to move from humanitarian issues to leader-level meetings in negotiations with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:

  • Resilience amidst Attacks: Despite continued mass casualty strikes, civilian governance and support initiatives remain active. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Morale Boost from POW Exchange: The return of soldiers will significantly boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Concern over Corruption: High-profile corruption cases may impact public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Awareness of Threat: Air raid alerts and continuous reporting maintain a high level of public awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Community Support: Continued civilian initiatives demonstrate sustained public engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Continued Civilian Appeal for Aid: "Оперативний ЗСУ" posted a photo message directly appealing for public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Russian Public Sentiment:

  • Controlled Narrative: State media and official sources tightly control information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security Concerns: Heightened reporting of alleged "terrorist cells" and "foreign agents" aims to justify state control. Reports of a drunk military man killing a teenager in Belgorod will likely generate negative sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Economic Impact: Reports of bonus cuts suggest potential economic strain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Public Fundraising: Continued public donations suggest a segment of the population remains committed, but also indicate ongoing resource shortfalls. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Discontent among Veterans: Reports of "SVO veterans" struggling with job rejections indicate potential future social issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Militarization of Society: The introduction of "Homeland Security" classes and attempts to coerce volunteers from civilian institutions indicate a systematic effort to normalize militarism. New reports of forced recruitment of budget employees in Transbaikalia confirm this trend. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Recruitment for "African Corps" and Domestic Propaganda: Active recruitment for the "African Corps" and morale-boosting propaganda indicates continued efforts to manage manpower and public perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Increased Internal Control: TASS reports fines for abortion inclination in Bryansk, indicating a tightening of social control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine:

  • Military Aid: Continued provision of Western military equipment remains critical. "Operation Interflex" demonstrates robust international military training cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Financial Aid: EU's agreement to provide EUR 30.6 billion for Ukraine in 2025, bypassing Hungary, is a significant diplomatic success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Political/Diplomatic: Creation of a Special Tribunal for aggression at PACE, and President Zelenskyy's meeting with Donald Trump, indicate continued efforts to build international consensus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Accession Talks: While Moldova's EU accession talks are set to open, Ukraine's first negotiation cluster is unlikely to open before Spring 2026. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Global Outreach: The report on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicates continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Support for Russia:

  • Belarus Alliance: Putin's visit to Belarus signals continued strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance and economic integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Global South/BRICS Outreach: Serbia's interest in closer ties with BRICS, and Russia's nuclear energy agreement with Kazakhstan, indicate continued diplomatic efforts to build alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Anti-Western Messaging: Russia continues to amplify anti-Western narratives and exploit geopolitical tensions to undermine Western unity. TASS reports Netanyahu used his son's wedding as a distraction for strikes on Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • EU Divisions: The EU summit's failure to approve the 18th sanctions package against Russia due to internal divisions is a diplomatic success for Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • North Korean Military Support: UAF Defense Minister Umierov reports that North Korea has already committed 11,000 elite military personnel to Russia for the war against Ukraine. This, if independently confirmed, represents a significant expansion of military support from a pariah state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Reuters reports ships hiding flags in the Strait of Hormuz. RUF will likely exploit this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Armenian Internal Unrest: TASS and Рыбарь report on internal security incidents in Armenia. RUF may seek to exploit any instability in former Soviet republics. New videos from Alex Parker Returns and Два майора confirm security forces storming the Catholicos's residence, framed with IO about Zelenskyy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Estonia's Nuclear Willingness: TASS reports Estonia's MOD is ready to host NATO nuclear-capable aircraft. This signals increased NATO forward presence and deterrence posture in the Baltic region, which Russia will likely frame as an aggressive act. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Sustain Donetsk Offensive and Exploit Gains: RUF will likely double down on efforts to exploit the breakthrough near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko, consolidating control over Udachne and the T0406 highway. They will continue attritional assaults toward Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, supported by heavy artillery and KAB strikes, aiming for a significant operational envelopment or to force a UAF withdrawal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Persistent Mass Air/Missile Strikes: RUF will continue large-scale, massed drone and missile attacks, particularly targeting critical military and civilian infrastructure (railways, airfields, industrial zones, energy facilities, population centers) across Ukraine, with an emphasis on Starokostiantyniv, the Kyiv region, and now Sumy, leveraging newly upgraded Shahed-136 MS drones. They will likely maintain claims of UAF attacks on ZNPP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Maintain Northern Pressure: The ~50,000-strong RUF grouping on the Sumy axis will maintain a high threat posture, conducting probing attacks, cross-border engagements, and air operations (including VDV drone combat) to fix UAF forces and prevent their redeployment to the Donetsk front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Increased Hybrid Warfare and Internal Repression: RUF will intensify information operations, including blame-shifting for civilian casualties and narratives of internal sabotage, while continuing to tighten internal security measures (arrests, internet restrictions) to suppress dissent and control information flow within RF. They will amplify narratives of "traitors" and "foreign agents" to justify these actions. New forced recruitment methods in Transbaikalia and increased social control (Bryansk abortion fines) confirm this trend. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Global Force Generation: RUF will continue efforts to recruit and deploy personnel, including for the "African Corps," to sustain their overall force posture and global ambitions, while continuing to integrate foreign military support, notably North Korean personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Synchronized Multi-Axis Offensive with Escalated Deep Strikes: RUF launches a renewed, high-intensity offensive on the Sumy axis, synchronized with a maximum-pressure assault in Donetsk, aimed at achieving a major breakthrough and operational collapse of UAF lines. This would be initiated by a large-scale ballistic missile and drone saturation attack against Kyiv, key airfields, and logistical hubs, with a secondary hybrid campaign targeting Western aid supply lines in Europe through sabotage or other deniable means. The integration of 11,000 North Korean elite troops, if confirmed, could provide a significant shock troop element. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully).
• Escalated Attacks on Critical Infrastructure including ZNPP: RUF escalates its targeting strategy to include direct, deliberate attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) or critical grid infrastructure connected to it, aiming to create a humanitarian or energy crisis, and then leverage propaganda to blame Ukraine. (LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - high risk, but possible under pressure).
• Direct Engagement of NATO/Partner Assets in Black Sea/Baltic: RUF naval forces actively target maritime aid shipments or reconnaissance assets in the Black Sea, attempting to deter Western presence. Russia responds aggressively to Estonia's willingness to host nuclear-capable aircraft, possibly through increased military activity or hybrid operations in the Baltic region. (LOW CONFIDENCE - high risk of direct conflict).

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Pokrovsk axis to monitor RUF's exploitation of the Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko breakthrough and advances towards Udachne. Identify and target follow-on forces, C2 nodes, and artillery supporting this advance. Prioritize monitoring of the T0406 highway.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain persistent ISR over the Sumy axis to provide early warning of any RUF re-massing for a renewed large-scale offensive, especially given recent ballistic strikes. Focus on troop concentrations, logistics build-ups, and the posture of the ~50,000 RUF personnel.
  3. URGENT: Prioritize collection and independent verification of the reported North Korean troop deployment, including their numbers, capabilities, and intended areas of operation.
  4. URGENT: Prioritize targeting of RUF railway infrastructure and fuel depots in the southern and western axes of RF territory (e.g., Bryansk) to exploit confirmed vulnerabilities and disrupt logistics. Task SOF and long-range assets to expand this interdiction campaign.
  5. HIGH: Launch a priority intelligence collection effort, in cooperation with partners, to determine attribution for the Erfurt military facility fire and assess the overall threat to Western aid infrastructure and supply lines into Ukraine.
  6. HIGH: Analyze intercepted RUF radio communications (63rd Brigade) for further insights into enemy morale, resource issues, and tactical shifts.
  7. HIGH: Monitor internal security incidents in RF, particularly those involving military personnel (e.g., Belgorod, Udmurtia, Ingushetia), for insights into RUF morale, discipline, and resource allocation to internal security. Monitor the arrest of Oleg Vasenin for implications on RUF MoD internal stability.
  8. HIGH: Increase surveillance of RUF efforts to gain strategic resource control in occupied territories (e.g., lithium deposits).
  9. HIGH: Continue to monitor internal security incidents in Armenia and their amplification by RUF media for signs of further destabilization attempts in the region.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic missile (ABM), counter-KAB, and anti-drone systems, to the Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka), Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Khmelnytskyi axes to counter increased RUF air threats supporting their ground advance and deep strikes. Prioritize the protection of key airfields. Specifically enhance AD around Sumy and Samara (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) following new strikes.
  2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Mandate an immediate review and hardening of force protection protocols for all UAF and partner-nation logistics and aid facilities, both in Ukraine and in Europe, emphasizing dispersion and physical security against sabotage in light of the Kramatorsk and Erfurt incidents.
  3. HIGH: Accelerate the operational integration of the F-16 fleet and new AD systems into the national air defense network, prioritizing their deployment to counter the most pressing threats on the Donetsk axis and deep strike targets.
  4. HIGH: Intensify efforts to field and integrate domestic anti-drone solutions (e.g., Safari shotgun) and counter-UAV EW systems across frontline units, particularly those facing high FPV and Shahed activity, and especially against the new AI-enabled Shahed-136 MS.
  5. HIGH: Implement enhanced security measures for ZNPP staff and infrastructure to mitigate the risk of RUF-orchestrated "drone attacks" for IO purposes.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Execute a deliberate defense to contain the RUF breakthrough west of Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko and prevent further advances toward Udachne, Dyliyivka, and the T0406 highway. Prepare and man secondary and tertiary defensive lines to prevent a wider operational envelopment of UAF forces near Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka.
  2. URGENT: Leverage the stabilization of the Sumy front to create a mobile reserve, but maintain sufficient forces to repel continued RUF probing attacks. Be prepared to rapidly redeploy reserves to counter the primary RUF effort in Donetsk.
  3. HIGH: Disseminate lessons learned from UAF FPV drone units' successful defense near Pokrovsk to all frontline units. Expedite the fielding of newly-developed domestic KAB-analogs and counter-drone EW systems.
  4. HIGH: Prioritize the completion of defensive fortifications, particularly in the most threatened sectors, as confirmed by Umierov's statement on 50% completion.
  5. HIGH: Intensify counter-propaganda efforts regarding UAF mobilization to counter RUF narratives about forced conscription.

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch a coordinated IO campaign centered on the successful defense of the Sumy axis and the prisoner exchange. Frame these as major strategic and moral victories for Ukraine, heavily featuring visuals of returned POWs.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Aggressively counter RUF narratives (e.g., UAF targeting ZNPP staff, UAF forced mobilization, UK refusing refugees) by widely disseminating UAF BDA of heavy RUF casualties in Donetsk assaults, framing gains as pyrrhic victories and highlighting civilian suffering from RUF terror bombing.
  3. URGENT: Use diplomatic channels to raise the alarm with NATO partners about the Erfurt fire and the alleged North Korean troop deployment, framing them as direct escalations and threats to international security and aid efforts for Ukraine.
  4. HIGH: Continue to push for faster EU accession talks and consistent fulfillment of financial aid packages.
  5. HIGH: Continue proactive messaging on Ukraine's commitment to diplomatic resolution, emphasizing Umierov's stated intent to move towards leader-level meetings after humanitarian issues.
  6. HIGH: Publicize UAF internal anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Chernyshov case) transparently to maintain public trust and international support.
  7. HIGH: Expose RUF internal security issues and forced mobilization tactics (e.g., Transbaikalia, military incidents) to demonstrate internal weakness and human rights abuses within Russia.

END OF REPORT