Sitrep 2025-06-27 07:37:00

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF MoD officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko. RUF source "Воин DV" provides video of RUF stormtroopers claiming liberation of Shevchenko. RUF source "Басурин о главном" provides video confirming liberation of Yalta (DNR) by "Vostok" Group. UAF General Staff reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction, confirming active combat in these claimed areas. UAF drone footage shows dozens of RUF casualties from a "meat grinder" assault near Pokrovsk. RUF FPV drone strikes claimed destruction of an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms RUF control of Novoserhiivka in the Pokrovsk area, stating its proximity to the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. DeepState confirms map updates for this area. RUF "Операция Z" provides aerial drone footage confirming combat operations and destruction in SHEVCHENKO (DNR), displaying Russian flags on captured structures and damaged civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video depicts 152-mm Msta-B howitzers of the 90th Guards Tank Division destroying an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk axis). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports RUF forces used "Geranium-2" (Shahed) to strike a temporary UAF deployment point near Novoekonomicheskoe in DNR, providing aerial video showing significant damage to a building complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the Ivan Franko Group, targeting its fuel tank and rocket guides. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This corroborates RUF claims on Shevchenko and indicates continued RUF pressure across multiple axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video details of RUF storming of Yalta in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area, indicating active RUF special operations targeting UAF transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts first-person video of RUF storming an enemy strongpoint, with Russian dialogue, indicating active close-quarters combat on the frontline (unspecified location, likely Donetsk/Luhansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides video footage of FAB strikes by the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army on UAF strongholds of the 2nd Battalion, 141st Mechanized Brigade, confirming continued heavy aerial bombardment in support of ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for the Konstantinovka - Yablonovka area, indicating active RUF planning/operations there. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts FPV drone video from Pokrovsk area, showing an UAF pickup truck detected and struck, indicating continued RUF FPV operations on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides thermal/night vision drone footage showing multiple individuals and a vehicle targeted in Kupyansk area. Overlay text "ГроЗа оптоволокно" indicates a Russian source and likely a thermal or night vision capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and vehicles in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA UAF personnel during a rotation attempt. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing RUF personnel "burning out" in forests and tree lines, indicating successful UAF operations to eliminate RUF infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showcasing successful RUF operations against UAF/NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery using thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" posts two photo messages captioned "Волчанское направление," providing visual intelligence of damaged infrastructure in a contested area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," displaying a map overlay indicating Russian advances. This visually confirms RUF territorial gains north of Yablonivka, impacting UAF positions near Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions, confirming continued heavy aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides FPV drone video showing destruction of RUF personnel near Pokrovsk, indicating continued UAF tactical successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka, confirming active RUF combat operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing reconnaissance from 69th Separate Brigade targeting and destroying a camouflaged UAF T-72M1 tank with two FPV drones in Southern Donetsk direction, confirming continued RUF FPV effectiveness and ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border, indicating active cross-border engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued RUF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports more than 40 combat engagements took place on the Pokrovsk direction today, confirming high intensity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF units successfully repelled 38 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction today, demonstrating effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports enemy forces conducted 6 airstrikes in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued air support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 4 combat engagements took place in the Siversk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 5 combat engagements took place in the Kramatorsk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 48 combat engagements took place along the entire front line, showing high intensity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF General Staff provides updated information for June 26, 22:00, confirming timely reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction, indicating RUF counter-UAV efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko), highlighting a strategic resource gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Russian forces are storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front, advancing forward. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This corroborates RUF claims on Kamyanske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports 40 combat engagements have taken place since 22:00 (UAF source). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area, indicating active RUF planning/operations there, likely connected to the Toretsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, possibly of military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas, with damage and explosions visible. The source labels it "Работает 'Рубикон'," indicating a specific RUF unit or system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment, including a car, displaying "НАРОДНЫЙ ФРОНТ" (People's Front) on the overlay, indicating continued tactical drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar, indicating continued air support to ground operations. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR and begun fighting for its liberation. This is a direct, confirmed RUF claim of penetration into a key UAF logistics hub for the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The accompanying video shows a soldier using a probe and a controlled detonation of an explosive device. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь reports "Хроника СВО за 26 июня" - daily summary by a prominent RUF military blogger (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора reports "#Сводка на утро 27 июня 2025 года" - daily summary by prominent RUF military bloggers (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff issues new photo messages and tactical analysis for 08:00, 27 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff issues new photo messages for general enemy combat losses up to 27 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports +970 liquidated personnel, confirming high enemy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). OTU Kharkiv and RBK-Ukraina corroborate the high enemy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF video shows an artillery position with ammunition, indicating continued heavy fires on the frontline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction, indicating continued RUF activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, which includes a tactical map of the Donetsk front indicating RUF advances and ongoing operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo also provides a tactical map for the Chasovoyarskoye direction, indicating RUF activity in this key area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire on enemy positions in support of assault units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports drones observed over Donetsk in Kuybyshevsky and Kyivsky districts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on UAF General Staff 08:00 summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment, including T-80 tanks, BMPs, Starlink terminals, and Baba Yaga drones, supporting R offensive in Donbas and border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone on the Southern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF TASS reports an RUF strike on a UAF temporary deployment point near Shakhove, DNR, with video evidence showing drone targeting and significant damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports fierce battles continuing north of Novoserhiivka, specifically in the areas of Molodetske and Udachne, and explicitly states that the important T0406 highway supplying the Ukrainian grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is under RUF fire control. This further corroborates RUF’s deep penetration and direct threat to a key UAF logistics artery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posts video of RUF drone operators from the "Vostok" Group of Forces operating in the Southern Donetsk direction, confirming active drone warfare and reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area. RUF claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone strike on a vehicle crossing and pumping station over the Aidar River in Luhansk are being used by RUF sources to confirm a new Ukrainian weapon system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for visual confirmation of "Peklo" use). Mash on Donbas provides video of a hurricane in Luhansk, indicating severe weather impacting the region and potentially military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports at least 15 Ukrainian UAVs attacked the administration of Troitske district in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), with one person wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) reports that over 15 Ukrainian UAVs struck the administration of Troitske district in LPR, confirming UAF long-range drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides photo messages from Troitske, Luhansk, confirming 15 drones destroyed the administration building and enemy equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports that UAF units repelled all enemy attacks in the Lyman direction, demonstrating defensive success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports enemy forces conducted 4 airstrikes in the Lyman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 22 dead (latest update) and nearly 300 wounded. TASS reports RUF "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetropsk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms state initiatives for financial aid to families who lost relatives due to Russian attacks, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms the "Safe Community" forum, bringing together national, regional, and local authorities, including emergency services and police, indicating continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports multiple FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district (Nikopol, Pokrovske, Chervonohryhorivka, Myrivka communities), indicating persistent RUF pressure and ongoing civilian targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул (Likely Head of Kryvyi Rih Defense Council) provides a briefing summarizing local civic support initiatives, including food kit distribution and veterans' sports games. This indicates continued civilian governance and efforts to maintain social stability and morale despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF has launched additional missiles towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful UAF AD against missiles heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Serhii Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OGA) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities, confirming persistent RUF pressure and targeting of civilian areas near the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF attacked Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities with FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in a Russian attack on Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports an increased death toll in Dnipro from the June 24 missile attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports the death toll in Dnipro from the June 24 attack has risen to 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна also reports increased death toll in Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) released a video showcasing the police and emergency services' response to the Dnipro attack, emphasizing the continued civilian impact and ongoing recovery efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped this week, and the contact line is stabilized, re-engaging 50,000 Russian troops. The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 14 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure. RUF source "AV БогомаZ" claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA corroborates this claim. RUF source "Два майора" provides video of an aerial reconnaissance footage in the Sumy direction, showing explosions along a tree line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" reports an attack by enemy (UAF) on a gas station in Volokonovsky district, Belgorod Oblast, showing fire and smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from "Ukrainian militants," showing drone reconnaissance, artillery impacts, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Сливочный каприз" (RUF) posts a map labeled "Sumy - Alekseevka" with colored zones and troop markers, indicating active RUF planning/operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast (18km from border), indicating continued UAF cross-border strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast, indicating RUF intent to solidify border control and counter UAF incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a Chinese journalist was wounded in Kursk Oblast during a UAF strike while preparing civilian material; his life is not in danger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo and ASTRA also confirm this incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" reports on Kursk Oblast Governor's statement regarding the incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" mocks the incident with a sarcastic photo message, implying China might intervene. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" reports on whether power outage schedules are in effect in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued civilian infrastructure challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" reports three people wounded in Bryansk after a UAF UAV strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" reports a group of enemy strike UAVs heading south in northern Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in central Sumy Oblast heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka, confirming active RUF combat operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) reports a "moped" (Shahed) UAV flying towards Korabelny district, Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) reports the "moped" in Mykolaiv has been neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports an explosion in Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) provides a general update on UAV activity indicating multiple Shahed-type drones were detected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) provides updated information regarding enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of RUF strike UAVs in eastern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video footage captioned "Воздушные бои в Сумской области: ВДВ завоёвывают господство в воздухе," showing aerial reconnaissance with targeting crosshairs and explosions on the ground. This indicates active RUF air operations, possibly drone-on-drone combat or air-to-ground strikes by VDV units in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк provides a general update on Shahed UAV activity in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). A group of RUF strike UAVs on the south of Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports on "remaining mopeds" (Shaheds). This indicates the continuation of Shahed drone activity, but with a reduced number from earlier reports, suggesting successful UAF AD or drones reaching their limits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. The video shows a heavily damaged tracked armored vehicle, confirming active combat in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source AV БогомаZ reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo provides a tactical map for the Sumy direction as of 27.06.2025, confirming continued RUF interest and operations in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged to shoot it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Ukraine was attacked by 8 missiles and 363 drones overnight, per UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes a photo message claiming to show the Kharkiv direction with overlaid polygons and arrows, likely indicating troop movements or control zones. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum, emphasizing continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian infantry of the 58th Motorized Brigade undergoing training on identifying and understanding various anti-tank mines (TM-46, TM-57, TM-62M, TMD-B). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA reports on the "Officer-Rescuer of the Community" project, focusing on strengthening security in border and frontline settlements, highlighting continued efforts to enhance civilian safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo of the Krasnolymansk direction, showing a fortified position with dragon's teeth and likely a military vehicle, suggesting defensive preparations or static positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" warns of KABs over Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" provides video of new recruits of the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting live-fire training with an M60 machine gun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" provides video showing drone operators of "Zapad" Group destroying a pickup truck and UAF personnel on the Krasnolymansk direction, indicating continued RUF drone effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs incoming on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports over 113 square kilometers of territory in Kharkiv Oblast has been demined, highlighting ongoing humanitarian and security work. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 9,936 explosive objects have been neutralized in Kharkiv Oblast, confirming scale of demining. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces killed 250 Russian soldiers and destroyed 46 pieces of enemy military equipment in the Kharkiv direction in the last day, demonstrating UAF effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces repelled 3 attacks in the Kupyansk direction and continue to hold defensive positions, indicating continued UAF resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports RUF forces conducted 3 airstrikes on the Kupyansk direction, confirming continued air pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kharkiv towards Zmiyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). OTU Kharkiv also issues a photo message with general enemy losses, corroborating high losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA reports that two settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by the enemy over the past day, confirming continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, posts an image related to veteran support, indicating civilian governance efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not direct military activity).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RUF soldiers attempting to shoot down FPV drones. Claims four fuel tankers and a vehicle with two RUF sergeants were destroyed. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration marked Day of Crimean Tatar Flag, signalling continued support for de-occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation in the region to counter enemy UAVs, indicating enhanced AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA posts a photo message to entrepreneurs in the region, likely a civilian initiative (not directly military). (LOW CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with movement halted on the affected section. This indicates continued successful UAF interdiction of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OMA releases postage stamps commemorating "Melitopol is Ukraine!", indicating continued symbolic resistance and assertion of sovereignty over occupied territories. (LOW CONFIDENCE - purely symbolic). "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" posts multiple photo messages and text regarding the "Safe Community" forum, emphasizing joint efforts between local authorities and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This indicates continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing an aerial view of a building with smoke emanating from it, potentially indicating a strike or damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction of residential buildings from artillery fire and drone activity, confirming active combat and RUF efforts to clear positions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Russian forces are storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front, advancing forward. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This corroborates RUF claims on Kamyanske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "All clear" for air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a new air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert has been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports fires and damage to non-residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia due to a night attack, per OMA Head Ivan Fedorov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 6 UAVs hit Zaporizhzhia overnight, per OMA (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація provide photos of damaged garage cooperative in Zaporizhzhia after RUF attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video of the aftermath of an attack on the city, showing significant structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 333 strikes on 14 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the last day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating an imminent major RUF offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a damaged industrial enterprise building in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA reports 79-year-old wounded in Huliaipole community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an image related to veteran support. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not direct military activity).
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports successful Lancet strike on UAF boat in Dnipro River from Orlan-10 reconnaissance. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo showing a damaged, likely civilian, structure in Kherson Oblast with no military significance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports that a 5-person RUF delegation visited homes in occupied Kakhovka yesterday, marking "unowned" houses. This likely indicates further RUF efforts to confiscate property and consolidate control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs in the north and west of Kherson Oblast, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the southern theater. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles over Bereznehuvate, heading towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора posts video of a military patrol boat near the Crimean coast, confirming RUF naval presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. Former Odesa Mayor Ruslan Bodelan died. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news, but potential for local political impact). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an explosion and fire in Odessa during a night attack, claiming it "killed a flower bed." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations and falling debris from shot-down missiles. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shares video of a person walking in an urban courtyard in Kyiv, with a timestamp of June 21, 2025, suggesting continued RUF surveillance or information gathering on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" pushes a survey result claiming 72.3% of Ukrainians believe the war should end along the current front line, indicating continued RUF IO targeting Ukrainian public opinion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports SBU has sentenced a "Rashist" (Russian) in absentia to life imprisonment for shooting a civilian during the occupation of Kyiv Oblast, highlighting ongoing accountability efforts for war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts video of an event related to a Russian missile strike on Solomianskyi district on June 17, with school children providing aid, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Офіс Генерального прокурора" provides video footage of an incident in Kyiv, showing a sudden explosion near a parked car. The presence of a prosecutor's office emblem suggests an pre-trial investigation into a civilian incident, possibly a terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports that prosecutors in Kyiv have sent a case to court against the heads of "Kyivzelenbud" (Kyiv Greenery), who demanded kickbacks from businesses. This indicates ongoing efforts to combat corruption in civilian administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA posts multiple photo messages showing ongoing cleanup and recovery efforts in Shevchenkivskyi district following a June 23rd attack, indicating continued civilian resilience and damage control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) posts a video of President Zelenskyy awarding SBU Special Operations "A" Center personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that the air defense system is working in Kyiv Oblast, confirming an active AD response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." This is a direct RUF information operation piece, likely pre-positioning for further strikes on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in Kyiv heading from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "explosions heard in Kyiv." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a MiG-31K in the air from Savasleyka, with possible launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports two MiG-31K aircraft, one has already launched. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air raid alert across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Kinzhals, implying successful AD interception or impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна and UAF Air Force confirm MiG-31K launch and high-speed target in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports continued explosions in Kyiv and AD activity, likely against UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RUF UAVs are heading towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна corroborates the UAF Air Force report of enemy drones flying towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Air Defense is active in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kyiv, heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles entering Bila Tserkva district (Kyiv Oblast), maintaining a northwest course. UAF Air Force confirms missiles in southern Kyiv region heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA reports air raid alert has been lifted for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports air raid alert has been lifted for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on weapon/ammunition warehouses in Boryspil and Hostomel near Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA posts photos commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was under massive drone and missile attack overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
- Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka. UAF General Staff reports 4 combat engagements took place in the Siversk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. UAF General Staff reports 5 combat engagements took place in the Kramatorsk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. UAF General Staff reports "operative information" as of 16:00 26.06.2025, providing a general update on the Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile threat for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles from the north moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles from the south towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles in southern Kirovohrad Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles continue to move towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна confirms missiles moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 19 enemy UAVs shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU provides the UAF General Staff 08:00 summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message shows #russiaHITScivilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports 365/371 air targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна reports RF launched 371 drones and missiles overnight, with main direction Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 8 missiles and 363 drones overnight, per UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. Internal security concerns noted with arrests of alleged foreign agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg. New reports confirm the photographer sentenced to 16 years for state treason for transferring a publicly available book on bunkers. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports a repair facility for Ukrainian military equipment in Erfurt, Germany, potentially damaged by fire. "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany, explicitly stating it's a Bundeswehr parking lot that was burned. This corroborates the RUF claim of targeting military equipment in Germany. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Fighterbomber" shows photo of "mysterious signs drawn by Air Force pilots in Belgorod Oblast," possibly related to operational markings or morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE - ambiguous imagery). TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - potential disruption to rail transport/logistics in RF). TASS and "Два майора" report law enforcement in Leningrad Oblast interrupted a "ritual" where participants buried two women alive, reflecting unusual internal security incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - highlights internal social/security issues, not directly military). "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for a new subject, "Fundamentals of Homeland Security," including grenade and Makarov pistol models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates a militarization of education/society). "Новости Москвы" reports children in Moscow Oblast are prohibited from being near bodies of water without adult supervision, indicating increased public safety measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects broader societal security concerns). TASS reports an investigation and arrest warrant request for a man who threw a child on the floor at Sheremetyevo airport, indicating public safety/law enforcement activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects domestic security issues). RUF "Colonelcassad" reports an FPV drone strike by GrV "Zapad" on five militants and a pickup truck near Bohuslavka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a fake report of military action involving Pacific Fleet exercises in Kamchatka attacking a fisherman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, countering negative narratives). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an individual arrested in Novorossiysk, confessing to providing information to Ukrainian sources on Ukrainian military object locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD releases drone footage depicting "powerful air strikes" by Russian Aerospace Forces using FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs on temporary deployment areas of enemy aircraft, showing multiple explosions in a village/settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," and that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin will meet with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve have been filed in Russian courts since the start of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a man who threw a child at Sheremetyevo Airport pleaded guilty, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes unrelated to military operations but reflecting social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo of an aircraft on an airfield with a caption about "Animal and plant world of airfields," indicating a focus on mundane aspects of airbase life. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a photo message of a Russian Presidential Decree, indicating formal state actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin prolonged the right to draft deferment for Old Believers until 2030, a social/religious policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk, possibly indicating increased military casualties being buried. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control, possibly related to internal security operations or counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding measures in response to "Berlin's arbitrary actions against Russian journalists," indicating a diplomatic escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" posts about Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, likely indicating RUF interest or activity in the area (LOW CONFIDENCE - no specific details given). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk for allegedly transmitting information on Russian ship locations, further corroborating RUF counter-intelligence activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an ongoing prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine under Istanbul agreements, with the RF MoD confirming the return of Russian servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Военкор Котенок" also confirms the prisoner exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" confirms a new prisoner exchange via Belarus, without specifying numbers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a court placed the former head of Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management) in Udmurtia under arrest for two months on bribery charges, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts video of a Russian deputy stating men go to war due to poverty, indicating a potential social/economic motivation for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The Washington Post stated Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse despite Western aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a presentation on the GBU-57 bunker buster, confirming continued RUF interest in Western advanced munitions and showcasing their own IO attempts to downplay Western capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a video from a NATO Summit showing a handshake between Erdoğan and Macron, indicating RUF tracking of high-level Western diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a court nationalized an oil company belonging to a Dagestan state secretary, further indicating RF internal anti-corruption measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells and support bases in Russia for sabotage and terrorist attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns photo message discusses a poll result stating a high percentage of labor migrants in Russia prefer Sharia law over secular law and are willing to protest for religious norms, implying internal security concerns within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts a video of Gorky Park, showing civilian life, which can be interpreted as normalcy propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine, indicating RUF's continued focus on information warfare and justification for its actions through historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, providing an official RUF diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin has arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit, signaling continued strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel (likely a Russian regional official) reports Nizhny Novgorod has become the "Youth Capital of the Union State" (Russia-Belarus), further emphasizing political and cultural integration between the two states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video reports on local theft of food donations for SVO participants by "local gypsies" in Podmoskovye, highlighting domestic social issues potentially impacting public support for the war effort and an attempt to control narratives around public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video commemorating the 10-year anniversary of Yevgeny Primakov's death, highlighting Russian political figures and history. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly military). RUF "Два майора" celebrates their channel's 3-year anniversary, indicating sustained RUF information operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reports on a Duma speech claiming positive attitudes towards migrants in Russia, indicating an an attempt to manage public perception of integration issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" video depicts Ukrainian servicemen returning, wrapped in flags, some showing tattoos (Ombudsman logo visible), indicating scenes from prisoner exchange or rotation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Старше Эдды" discusses Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov's statement on Western special services involving migrants in terror activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA posts image regarding Russian military personnel denied payments for cancer, citing "Operation Pipe" in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" video shows freed POWs arriving by ambulance, with "Welcome Home" messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message about Iran executing three men for spying for Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts video of two individuals running near railroad tracks, with no discernible military context. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Старше Эдды" again discusses Yuri Kokov's statement on migrants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" video shows a large double rainbow over a cityscape, indicating civilian life and no immediate military activity. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Dagestan State Secretary Magomed-Sultan Magomedov has been released under a non-disclosure agreement, which is a development in an internal RF anti-corruption case previously highlighted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a military deserter in Udmurtia opened fire on police and fled into the forest, indicating continued internal security incidents within RF involving military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports a Kaliningrad lawyer suffered a hypertensive crisis during her trial, indicating ongoing legal/political repression in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front, with initial evidence of use. This suggests a new indigenous long-range strike capability. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim, needs independent verification). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF РБК-Україна provide video messages confirming returning Ukrainian soldiers, reinforcing the prisoner exchange event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provides video of the prisoner exchange, with emotional accounts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports EU will open accession talks with Moldova on July 4, but not Ukraine, indicating EU internal dynamics impacting Ukraine's diplomatic progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF source) video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, waving Russian flags, confirming the reciprocal nature of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing joint military training with UK, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, indicating continued and robust international training support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, focusing on soldiers under 25, severely ill, and seriously wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests, indicating a focus on domestic industrial development, not directly military but reflects RF industrial capacity. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України (UAF source) warns of KABs over Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) provides a geopolitical map of the Cambodia-Thailand border. This is irrelevant to the current conflict and may be a misdirection or low-priority content. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly relevant). Два майора (RUF source) posts image that appears to be scarecrows, with caption indicating "tactical analysis." This is likely an an attempt at humorous or satirical content, not militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) also posts a photo of artillery systems with a caption about Chinese drone tests, indicating RUF interest in foreign military tech. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports on Lviv partial water outage due to an accident, a civilian infrastructure issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (Ukrainian source reporting on Russian content) video shows a Russian "SVO veteran" complaining about job rejections, highlighting veteran reintegration issues in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UAF source) reports charges against four individuals for embezzling 1.6M UAH in charity donations for UAF in Sumy Oblast, highlighting ongoing internal corruption issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RUF source) photo message with caption "A conscript signed a contract" likely indicates continued coerced or incentivized contract signing for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports on pensioners being able to return money from Oschadbank to the Pension Fund, a civilian financial matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports RUF has launched nearly 6,000 cluster munitions on Ukraine, highlighting continued indiscriminate targeting and scale of RUF violence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (Ukrainian military blogger) appeals for aid for soldiers, indicating continued resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович (RUF source) criticizes Russian authorities for "indistinct movements" and "complete lack of strategy," reflecting internal dissent within the hardline pro-war community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF source) video shows 1129th ZRP destroying 7 UAVs, indicating continued UAF AD successes against drones. The drone shown appears to be a Shahed variant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Serbian PM states Serbia will not sign anti-Russian declarations, indicating continued Russian diplomatic influence in the Balkans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) (RUF source) reports European intelligence believes Iran preserved uranium despite US strikes, as per Financial Times. This reflects continued RUF interest in international nuclear politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) video features an Iranian leader speaking defiantly against the US regarding nuclear issues, indicating RUF amplification of anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RUF source) posts a poll regarding Polish citizen's opinions on their army, NATO, and Ukraine, indicating RUF interest in foreign public sentiment for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber (RUF source) posts "Rubric 'they write to us'," likely a general-interest or morale-related post without direct military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Putin states Israel-Iran conflict is "in the past," attempting to control the narrative of regional conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Putin calls Western actions on Russian gold and forex reserves "robbery." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports Trump and Netanyahu agreed on a Gaza war cessation plan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) posts an image with a swastika and derogatory comments towards Ukrainians, demonstrating extreme RUF dehumanization and hate speech. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Putin states Eurasian Economic Union unemployment rate is 2.8%, with Russia at 2.3%, highlighting economic stability claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) GUR reports striking Russian S-400 system in Crimea using a drone, with video evidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) posts video of individuals in tactical gear with "SPETSNAZ" branding, near a police van, suggesting law enforcement or special operations activity, not directly combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts video of a Russian soldier thanking subscribers for body armor and seeking more donations, indicating continued reliance on public support for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). President Zelenskiy / Official (UAF source), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF source), and РБК-Україна (UAF source) all disseminate the same video of President Zelenskyy awarding SBU Special Operations "A" Center personnel. This demonstrates high-level recognition and morale-boosting efforts for an elite unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) photo message with caption "У Брянську ГУРкіт! Дрони ГУР палять склади ракетного палива і паливно-мастильних матеріалів" (In Bryansk, GUR rumbles! GUR drones are burning missile fuel and lubricants warehouses) includes multiple images of a large fire and smoke plume in Bryansk, confirming a successful UAF GUR drone strike on a critical RUF logistics target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts a video of Ayatollah Khamenei speaking about the war with Israel, confirming continued RUF interest in amplifying anti-Western and regional conflict narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source) video shows military personnel interacting with civilians in a damaged urban environment, and a distressed civilian woman, suggesting ongoing humanitarian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) video shows a Chinese journalist, Lu Yuiguang, who was wounded in Kursk Oblast during a UAF attack, stating that Chinese journalists are monitoring events in Kursk Oblast. This confirms the incident and will be used for RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (GUR) (UAF source) reports their "Ghosts" special unit struck critical and expensive S-400 Triumph AD system components in occupied Crimea using drones, likely launched from uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). Video evidence provided. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RUF source) video shows servicemen of 6th Motorised Rifle Division (Yug Group of Forces) honing skills with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in the rear area of the special military operation, indicating continued training and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) provides a "Summary for the day 26 June", indicating continued structured reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports that Hungary blocked the EU summit decision on starting accession talks for Ukraine, and that the first negotiation cluster is unlikely to open before Spring 2026. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two Tu-95MS long-range bombers redeployed from Olenya airfield to Engels airbase. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from a Ukrainian source reporting that Russia is helping North Korea build destroyers, potentially supplying Pantsir-M AD systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (RUF source) posts video about a UAF drone strike on a missile fuel warehouse in Bryansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts video with derogatory caption "Хохол осознал..." and showing a person on a train or industrial equipment, aiming to mock UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS (RUF source) reports a Steam gaming platform outage. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian relevance). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts images of alleged wreckage of a large Israeli Heron TP (Eitan) UAV shot down by Iranian AD, claiming it happened "during the war". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, likely misattribution/misinformation). РБК-Україна posts a map of Ukraine showing air raid alerts due to drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF Source) reports a statement by Zelenskyy on the lack of funds in the Ukrainian budget for army needs, expressing hope for continued EU financial support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF Source) posts video with a caption requesting thermal imagers for the front, stating they save lives at night, indicating continued RUF reliance on public donations for key equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts a video portraying a tank commander ("Poet"), likely a propaganda piece for morale and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "They are starting to guess what it smells like" with a laughing emoji, and also "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." This is a direct RUF information operation piece, likely pre-positioning for further strikes on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RUF Source) posts "Top News Today" with images related to the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (RUF Source) reports an anarchist went missing after being detained in Yekaterinburg and was beaten and taken outside the city. This highlights internal security issues in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko), highlighting a strategic resource gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message announcing Ramzan Kadyrov was awarded for achievements in architecture, which is a propaganda piece focused on internal Russian elites. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various regions of the RF and the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF source) reports "general update on mopeds (Shaheds)" - indicating continued regional UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts a video of the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (Volgograd), thanking the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel for support, indicating continued unit-level morale and external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts photo of a Pantsir-S1 AA system with mini-missiles (TKB-1055) for anti-drone defense, reporting receipt by Russian forces from Rostec. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) posts a photo message celebrating 'Two Majors' 3-year anniversary, confirming sustained RUF information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Serbia's PM stated interest in closer ties with BRICS, indicating continued Russian diplomatic outreach to non-Western blocs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump claims a trade deal with China was signed yesterday (Wednesday). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports on legal penalties for showing a "middle finger" to road cameras, highlighting internal Russian social control. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not direct military relevance). TASS reports the EU summit did not approve the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, confirming internal EU divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ (RUF Source) reports four Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RUF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the EU Summit mandated the European Commission to prepare a plan to finance the militarization of the community by October, indicating a long-term strategic shift by the EU that will impact the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a multi-car traffic accident in Kabardino-Balkaria resulted in three fatalities. This is a civilian incident and not directly militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that American Film Academy invited Russian actor Yura Borisov to join its ranks. This is civilian news and not militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that Apti Alaudinov, Commander of the special unit 'Akhmat', claims SBU is developing various combinations to assassinate 'Akhmat' command staff. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO/claim). TASS reports "Rusal" shareholders decided not to pay dividends for 2024. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - civilian economic news). НгП раZVедка claims Russia has escalated military production to deliver hundreds of long-range precision munitions multiple times a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO/claim). ТАСС reports that Apti Alaudinov stated that Trump's actions in settling the Iran-Israel conflict saved Israel from complete defeat. This is a highly biased RUF IO statement aimed at praising Trump and potentially causing division among Western allies or influencing perceptions of regional power dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Дед будущей главы Соединенного Королевства MI-6 был пособником нацистов из Чернигова по прозвищу Мясник." (The grandfather of the future head of MI-6 of the United Kingdom was an accomplice of the Nazis from Chernihiv, nicknamed the Butcher. This was reported by The Daily Mail, whose journalists studied documents stored in the archives of the German city of Freiburg.) This is a new RUF information operation designed to discredit Western intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports that Russians transferred 24 billion rubles for the military over three years of the "All for Victory" project. This indicates sustained public fundraising for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volzhsky and two districts of Volgograd Oblast, per the governor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports temporary movement restrictions on the bridge over the Don River in Kalachevsky district, Volgograd Oblast, to clear UAV debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rostov Oblast interim governor reports AD activity overnight with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that RF MoD states Yars mobile missile systems are on combat patrol routes as part of planned exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US Ambassador Tracy has completed her work and is leaving Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports sending children home from beaches, indicating civilian policing unrelated to the conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Iran's parliament has approved a bill to end cooperation with the IAEA, signaling continued nuclear tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Kazakhstan expects to sign an intergovernmental agreement with Russia on building a nuclear power plant by year-end, signaling deepening energy ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Macron stated that US attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities were effective, corroborating previous reports of US strikes and indicating Western assessments of their impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo message implying internal RUF security concerns, showing Wahhabists threatening Russia and Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a daily summary for the morning of 27 June 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Saratov airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports EU failed to approve 18th sanctions package. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that 39 UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions. This confirms large-scale UAV activity and RUF AD response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine, indicating a new, likely desperate, form of forced mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo message showing the view from the navigator's seat of a long-range supersonic missile-bomber with variable-sweep wings on a combat course, indicating continued strategic bomber flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" posts a special report video "Guardian Angel of Donbas: 49 years of the Republic's father" which includes combat footage and memorial elements for fallen soldiers, reinforcing pro-war propaganda and unit morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "Return of the Colonizer" which is highly ambiguous without the image, but could be related to propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims that the American contingent in Europe will not decrease in the near future, indicating RUF tracking of NATO force posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber scammers targeting businessmen via Zoom, indicating internal security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). FSB detained a Crimean resident for collecting data on transport infrastructure and military units for SBU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the detained Crimean resident confessed to working for SBU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Новости Москвы reports Russians are having their bonuses cut. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman shot at police in Udmurtia, indicating internal security incidents involving military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Басурин о главном posts cultural video with no military relevance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF Два майора posts video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued resource needs for RUF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on an Iranian short-range AD system "Majid" used to intercept Israeli drones, indicating RUF interest in foreign AD capabilities and Middle East conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Reuters reports that ships in the Strait of Hormuz have begun hiding under different flags to avoid attacks. This indicates regional tension and RUF interest in global maritime security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Военкор Котенок" reports an outcome of the night: 39 Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports the Russian Central Bank may lower the key interest rate in July, which is economic news, not military. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) will investigate factors leading to limited telecom operator choice in residential complexes. This is internal economic/regulatory news, not military. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a list of "TOP-100 best Russian Telegram channels," reflecting internal social media landscape. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Север.Реалии" reports Kadyrov received an award in architecture, which is internal political propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports a former deputy head of Khimki is on a wanted list for unspecified reasons. This is internal law enforcement news. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video from a charity fund, appealing for help, indicating continued reliance on public support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" is recruiting for the "African Corps" from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, seeking men (with and without combat experience) and female medics. This indicates a continued global force projection and recruitment effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Rybar posts a summary of positional confrontation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Vinnitsia Oblast: НгП раZVедка (RUF source) makes a derogatory comment about Vinnitsia being a "subsidized" area and having no "strategic value," indicating potential for RUF IO to dismiss the importance of this region, possibly to set conditions for future strikes or to downplay its significance in the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), indicating continued RUF drone activity targeting key infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 missiles and 2 "mopeds" (Shaheds) from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokon, still expecting loud impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later reports "minus" on Kinzhals. "Suspilne" confirms explosions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims hypersonic "Kinzhals" struck the UAF airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк confirms Starokostiantyniv is defending against Shahed-type UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Khmelnytskyi region, en route west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides contradictory reports regarding missile interceptions, first stating "minus" then "rockets were not shot down." This indicates confusion or conflicting initial reports during active AD engagement, requiring further confirmation. However, Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "2 missiles and 2 mopeds on Starokon" and then "about 4 missiles and 1 moped on Starokon" with expectation of "loud" impacts. This suggests multiple impacts occurred in the Starokostiantyniv area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on rockets from the current wave. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports only 2 of the 5 previously reported Shaheds are still heading towards Starokon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV in northern Khmelnytskyi heading towards Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard again in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff confirms active combat on the Khmelnytskyi axis as of 08:00, 27 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on Khmelnytskyi airfield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Recent heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, affecting air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
The confirmed fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Transbaikalia, due to natural fires, implies dry conditions and fire hazards in some parts of RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
A reported fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, could release hazardous materials, impacting the local environment if proximate to logistical routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video from Odessa (night attack) shows significant fire, implying dry conditions or effective incendiary targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast Governor's report of demining operations underscores the continued environmental hazard posed by unexploded ordnance and mines across the front lines and liberated territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Mash on Donbas video of a hurricane in Luhansk indicates significant localized severe weather impacting the eastern front, potentially hindering military operations and civilian movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows clear black smoke plume rising from Bryansk after UAV fragments caused fire, confirming continued environmental impact of cross-border strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
"Новости Москвы" video showing a large double rainbow over a cityscape, while not directly military, indicates continued weather variability in Russia that could affect aerial operations or ground movement if it reaches conflict zones. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
Rybar reports on the Middle East crisis for 26 June, indicating continued awareness of global events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF "Два майора" video shows significant forest fires, indicating potential environmental challenges for both sides, affecting visibility and ground movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" satellite image shows cloud formations and radiation temperature, implying continued monitoring of weather and environmental conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations, notably on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, which is now independently corroborated by UAF sources for Novoserhiivka and visually confirmed for Shevchenko by RUF footage ("Операция Z" and "Colonelcassad"). This represents a significant advance and potential threat to UAF forces in Udachne and towards Konstantinovka. RUF continues to consolidate gains in areas like Yalta and Dyleyevka, and the claimed Komar. UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks. UAF drone footage near Pokrovsk confirms high RUF casualties from "meat grinder" assaults, indicating continued attritional tactics by RUF and effective UAF defensive fires. RUF source "ТАСС" states "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF artillery and drone strikes on UAF positions and temporary deployment points (e.g., Novoekonomicheskoe) continue. RUF video from "Два майора" shows the evacuation of wounded from the Line of Contact (LBS), confirming active combat and ongoing casualties, likely in this area given other reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video confirms successful FPV drone strike against RUF "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes targeting northern Donetsk, indicating continued RUF air support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" releases video of 78th Separate Assault Regiment conducting trench assaults and clearing operations, indicating active UAF offensive/counter-offensive actions on specific sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area, indicating active RUF special operations targeting UAF transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video of first-person assault on an enemy strongpoint indicates active RUF infantry operations in fortified areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued air support for ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" reporting on "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation," confirming continued RUF focus on this critical axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests active RUF planning/operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk, indicating continued RUF FPV operations on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating RUF intent to pressure the Dnipropetrovsk border directly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState map updates confirm RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, and Vilne Pole. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video of thermal/night vision footage shows targeted movements of UAF infantry and vehicles in Kupyansk, confirming continued RUF ground and air efforts on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" posts photo of Chinese artillery, indicating RUF's interest in artillery capabilities and foreign military technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts on a conscript signing a contract, indicating continued manpower generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides thermal/night vision video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and a vehicle in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA. This confirms continued effective RUF ground and FPV drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing successful UAF engagements against RUF personnel "burning out" in forests and tree lines, demonstrating RUF continues to commit personnel to attritional assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showcasing successful RUF operations against UAF/NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery using thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing an aerial view of a building with smoke emanating from it, potentially indicating a strike or damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" report of RUF delegation marking "unowned" houses in Kakhovka signals active consolidation of control in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" posts two photo messages captioned "Волчанское направление," and "Межевое направление," showing destroyed and damaged structures, confirming active engagement in Vovchansk and the Mezheve area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," providing a map illustrating RUF ground advances towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction and active combat operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirming continued RUF ground assaults and clearing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "MoD Russia" video shows servicemen of 6th Motorised Rifle Division (Yug Group of Forces) honing their skills during use of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in rear area of special military operation, indicating continued training and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions, confirming continued heavy aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka, confirming active RUF combat operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts video from "Константиновское направление. От элиты Армии России: от штурмовиков" showing a group of five individuals in military camouflage, standing in front of Russian and unit-specific flags, with a banner displaying 'ШТУРМОВОЙ ОТРЯД' (Assault Detachment) and 'ДВА МАЙОРА' (Two Majors). This indicates continued RUF ground operations by assault units in the Konstantinovka direction and confirms their ongoing propaganda efforts for these units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing reconnaissance from 69th Separate Brigade targeting and destroying a camouflaged UAF T-72M1 tank with two FPV drones in Southern Donetsk direction, confirming continued RUF FPV effectiveness and ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border, indicating active cross-border engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued RUF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports more than 40 combat engagements took place on the Pokrovsk direction today, confirming high intensity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF units successfully repelled 38 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction today, demonstrating effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports enemy forces conducted 6 airstrikes in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued air support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 4 combat engagements took place in the Siversk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 5 combat engagements took place in the Kramatorsk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 48 combat engagements took place along the entire front line, showing high intensity. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction, indicating RUF counter-UAV efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko), highlighting a strategic resource gain and confirming RUF claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing Russian military personnel preparing and deploying an FPV drone for reconnaissance or attack, confirming continued tactical drone operations by the 25th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts a video of the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (Volgograd), thanking the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel for support, indicating continued unit-level morale and external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports 40 combat engagements have taken place since 22:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts multiple photo messages of destroyed, damaged, and captured Ukrainian armored vehicles, accompanied by a caption stating "Destroyed, damaged, and captured enemy armored vehicles. And so it will be with every one." This serves as RUF propaganda to demonstrate successful BDA and undermine UAF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area, indicating active RUF planning/operations there, likely connected to the Toretsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь provides an "Outcome for June 26" summary, indicating continued active RUF operations and assessment of the battlefield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, possibly of military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas, with damage and explosions visible. The source labels it "Работает 'Рубикон'," indicating a specific RUF unit or system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment, including a car, displaying "НАРОДНЫЙ ФРОНТ" (People's Front) on the overlay, indicating continued tactical drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posts a video of Special Forces soldiers from the Siversk direction expressing gratitude for a DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopter received from public donors, indicating continued reliance on public support for critical equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar, indicating continued air support to ground operations. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR and begun fighting for its liberation. This represents a significant new ground development, confirming RUF forces are engaged in combat for a key UAF logistics hub. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Воин DV" posts video message captioned "Боевая работа операторов БПЛА #25_армии" showing drone combat operations, confirming continued tactical drone use by 25th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The accompanying video shows a soldier using a probe and a controlled detonation of an explosive device. This indicates ongoing RUF demining operations and confirms their presence in the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. The video shows a heavily damaged tracked armored vehicle, confirming active combat in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that a State Duma deputy claims Kyiv is losing control on the battlefield, reflecting RUF's ongoing IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF video from Colonelcassad shows an artillery position with ammunition, confirming continued ground fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction, indicating continued RUF activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ARHANHEL SPETSNAZ posts a video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Basurin o Glavnom posts multiple photos of a Soviet rocket launcher, labeled #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ (Day in History), which is historical content and not direct battlefield geometry. (LOW CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, which includes a tactical map of the Donetsk front indicating RUF advances and ongoing operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo also provides a tactical map for the Chasovoyarskoye direction, indicating RUF activity in this key area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire on enemy positions in support of assault units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports drones observed over Donetsk in Kuybyshevsky and Kyivsky districts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on UAF General Staff 08:00 summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment, including T-80 tanks, BMPs, Starlink terminals, and Baba Yaga drones, supporting R offensive in Donbas and border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone on the Southern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Воин DV provides video of 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta, showing active combat and RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Kotsnews provides drone footage compilation with thermal imaging showing a 'Bradley' IFV and other destroyed enemy equipment, confirming RUF reconnaissance and targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Два майора posts video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued resource needs for RUF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that the 63rd Brigade intercepted unusual enemy radio communications, possibly indicating RUF distress or tactical shifts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" releases a video confirming fierce fighting north of Novoserhiivka, specifically at Molodetske and Udachne, explicitly stating that the T0406 highway is under RUF fire control. This indicates a deeper RUF penetration and direct threat to a key UAF logistics artery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area. RUF claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone strike on a vehicle crossing and pumping station over the Aidar River in Luhansk are being used by RUF sources to confirm a new Ukrainian weapon system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for visual confirmation of "Peklo" use). Mash on Donbas provides video of a hurricane in Luhansk, indicating severe weather impacting the region and potentially military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports at least 15 Ukrainian UAVs attacked the administration of Troitske district in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), with one person wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе (RUF source) reports that over 15 Ukrainian UAVs struck the administration of Troitske district in LPR, confirming UAF long-range drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF Source) provides photo messages from Troitske, Luhansk, confirming 15 drones destroyed the administration building and enemy equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports that UAF units repelled all enemy attacks in the Lyman direction, demonstrating defensive success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports enemy forces conducted 4 airstrikes in the Lyman direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 22 dead (latest update) and nearly 300 wounded. TASS reports RUF "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetropsk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms state initiatives for financial aid to families who lost relatives due to Russian attacks, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms the "Safe Community" forum, bringing together national, regional, and local authorities, including emergency services and police, indicating continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports multiple FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district (Nikopol, Pokrovske, Chervonohryhorivka, Myrivka communities), indicating persistent RUF pressure and ongoing civilian targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул (Likely Head of Kryvyi Rih Defense Council) provides a briefing summarizing local civic support initiatives, including food kit distribution and veterans' sports games. This indicates continued civilian governance and efforts to maintain social stability and morale despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF has launched additional missiles towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful UAF AD against missiles heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Serhii Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OGA) reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities, confirming persistent RUF pressure and targeting of civilian areas near the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports RUF attacked Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities with FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in a Russian attack on Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports an increased death toll in Dnipro from the June 24 missile attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports the death toll in Dnipro from the June 24 attack has risen to 21. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна also reports increased death toll in Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) released a video showcasing the police and emergency services' response to the Dnipro attack, emphasizing the continued civilian impact and ongoing recovery efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped this week, and the contact line is stabilized, re-engaging 50,000 Russian troops. The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 14 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure. RUF source "AV БогомаZ" claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA corroborates this claim. RUF source "Два майора" provides video of an aerial reconnaissance footage in the Sumy direction, showing explosions along a tree line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" reports an attack by enemy (UAF) on a gas station in Volokonovsky district, Belgorod Oblast, showing fire and smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from "Ukrainian militants," showing drone reconnaissance, artillery impacts, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Сливочный каприз" (RUF) posts a map labeled "Sumy - Alekseevka" with colored zones and troop markers, indicating active RUF planning/operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast (18km from border), indicating continued UAF cross-border strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast, indicating RUF intent to solidify border control and counter UAF incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a Chinese journalist was wounded in Kursk Oblast during a UAF strike while preparing civilian material; his life is not in danger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo and ASTRA also confirm this incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" reports on Kursk Oblast Governor's statement regarding the incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" mocks the incident with a sarcastic photo message, implying China might intervene. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" reports on whether power outage schedules are in effect in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued civilian infrastructure challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" reports three people wounded in Bryansk after a UAF UAV strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" reports a group of enemy strike UAVs heading south in northern Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in central Sumy Oblast heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka, confirming active RUF combat operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) reports a "moped" (Shahed) UAV flying towards Korabelny district, Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) reports the "moped" in Mykolaiv has been neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports an explosion in Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) provides a general update on UAV activity indicating multiple Shahed-type drones were detected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) provides updated information regarding enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of RUF strike UAVs in eastern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video footage captioned "Воздушные бои в Сумской области: ВДВ завоёвывают господство в воздухе," showing aerial reconnaissance with targeting crosshairs and explosions on the ground. This indicates active RUF air operations, possibly drone-on-drone combat or air-to-ground strikes by VDV units in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast moving west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк provides a general update on Shahed UAV activity in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). A group of RUF strike UAVs on the south of Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports on "remaining mopeds" (Shaheds). This indicates the continuation of Shahed drone activity, but with a reduced number from earlier reports, suggesting successful UAF AD or drones reaching their limits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. The video shows a heavily damaged tracked armored vehicle, confirming active combat in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source AV БогомаZ reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo provides a tactical map for the Sumy direction as of 27.06.2025, confirming continued RUF interest and operations in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged to shoot it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Ukraine was attacked by 8 missiles and 363 drones overnight, per UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes a photo message claiming to show the Kharkiv direction with overlaid polygons and arrows, likely indicating troop movements or control zones. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum, emphasizing continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian infantry of the 58th Motorized Brigade undergoing training on identifying and understanding various anti-tank mines (TM-46, TM-57, TM-62M, TMD-B). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA reports on the "Officer-Rescuer of the Community" project, focusing on strengthening security in border and frontline settlements, highlighting continued efforts to enhance civilian safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo of the Krasnolymansk direction, showing a fortified position with dragon's teeth and likely a military vehicle, suggesting defensive preparations or static positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" warns of KABs over Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" provides video of new recruits of the 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade conducting live-fire training with an M60 machine gun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" provides video showing drone operators of "Zapad" Group destroying a pickup truck and UAF personnel on the Krasnolymansk direction, indicating continued RUF drone effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs incoming on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports over 113 square kilometers of territory in Kharkiv Oblast has been demined, highlighting ongoing humanitarian and security work. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 9,936 explosive objects have been neutralized in Kharkiv Oblast, confirming scale of demining. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces killed 250 Russian soldiers and destroyed 46 pieces of enemy military equipment in the Kharkiv direction in the last day, demonstrating UAF effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF forces repelled 3 attacks in the Kupyansk direction and continue to hold defensive positions, indicating continued UAF resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports RUF forces conducted 3 airstrikes on the Kupyansk direction, confirming continued air pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF Source) reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kharkiv towards Zmiyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). OTU Kharkiv also issues a photo message with general enemy losses, corroborating high losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA reports that two settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck by the enemy over the past day, confirming continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, posts an image related to veteran support, indicating civilian governance efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not direct military activity).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RUF soldiers attempting to shoot down FPV drones. Claims four fuel tankers and a vehicle with two RUF sergeants were destroyed. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration marked Day of Crimean Tatar Flag, signalling continued support for de-occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation in the region to counter enemy UAVs, indicating enhanced AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA posts a photo message to entrepreneurs in the region, likely a civilian initiative (not directly military). (LOW CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (UAF source) video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with movement halted on the affected section. This indicates continued successful UAF interdiction of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OMA releases postage stamps commemorating "Melitopol is Ukraine!", indicating continued symbolic resistance and assertion of sovereignty over occupied territories. (LOW CONFIDENCE - purely symbolic). "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" posts multiple photo messages and text regarding the "Safe Community" forum, emphasizing joint efforts between local authorities and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This indicates continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing an aerial view of a building with smoke emanating from it, potentially indicating a strike or damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction of residential buildings from artillery fire and drone activity, confirming active combat and RUF efforts to clear positions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Russian forces are storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front, advancing forward. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This corroborates RUF claims on Kamyanske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "All clear" for air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a new air raid alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert has been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports fires and damage to non-residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia due to a night attack, per OMA Head Ivan Fedorov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 6 UAVs hit Zaporizhzhia overnight, per OMA (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна and Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація provide photos of damaged garage cooperative in Zaporizhzhia after RUF attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video of the aftermath of an attack on the city, showing significant structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 333 strikes on 14 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the last day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating an imminent major RUF offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a damaged industrial enterprise building in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on industrial zones in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA reports 79-year-old wounded in Huliaipole community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an image related to veteran support. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not direct military activity).
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports successful Lancet strike on UAF boat in Dnipro River from Orlan-10 reconnaissance. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo showing a damaged, likely civilian, structure in Kherson Oblast with no military significance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports that a 5-person RUF delegation visited homes in occupied Kakhovka yesterday, marking "unowned" houses. This likely indicates further RUF efforts to confiscate property and consolidate control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs in the north and west of Kherson Oblast, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the southern theater. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles over Bereznehuvate, heading towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора posts video of a military patrol boat near the Crimean coast, confirming RUF naval presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. Former Odesa Mayor Ruslan Bodelan died. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news, but potential for local political impact). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an explosion and fire in Odessa during a night attack, claiming it "killed a flower bed." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations and falling debris from shot-down missiles. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shares video of a person walking in an urban courtyard in Kyiv, with a timestamp of June 21, 2025, suggesting continued RUF surveillance or information gathering on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" pushes a survey result claiming 72.3% of Ukrainians believe the war should end along the current front line, indicating continued RUF IO targeting Ukrainian public opinion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports SBU has sentenced a "Rashist" (Russian) in absentia to life imprisonment for shooting a civilian during the occupation of Kyiv Oblast, highlighting ongoing accountability efforts for war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts video of an event related to a Russian missile strike on Solomianskyi district on June 17, with school children providing aid, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Офіс Генерального прокурора" provides video footage of an incident in Kyiv, showing a sudden explosion near a parked car. The presence of a prosecutor's office emblem suggests an pre-trial investigation into a civilian incident, possibly a terror attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports that prosecutors in Kyiv have sent a case to court against the heads of "Kyivzelenbud" (Kyiv Greenery), who demanded kickbacks from businesses. This indicates ongoing efforts to combat corruption in civilian administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA posts multiple photo messages showing ongoing cleanup and recovery efforts in Shevchenkivskyi district following a June 23rd attack, indicating continued civilian resilience and damage control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) posts a video of President Zelenskyy awarding SBU Special Operations "A" Center personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that the air defense system is working in Kyiv Oblast, confirming an active AD response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." This is a direct RUF information operation piece, likely pre-positioning for further strikes on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in Kyiv heading from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports "explosions heard in Kyiv." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a MiG-31K in the air from Savasleyka, with possible launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports two MiG-31K aircraft, one has already launched. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air raid alert across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Kinzhals, implying successful AD interception or impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна and UAF Air Force confirm MiG-31K launch and high-speed target in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports continued explosions in Kyiv and AD activity, likely against UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RUF UAVs are heading towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна corroborates the UAF Air Force report of enemy drones flying towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Air Defense is active in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kyiv, heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles entering Bila Tserkva district (Kyiv Oblast), maintaining a northwest course. UAF Air Force confirms missiles in southern Kyiv region heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA reports air raid alert has been lifted for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports air raid alert has been lifted for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on weapon/ammunition warehouses in Boryspil and Hostomel near Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA posts photos commemorating fallen Kyiv defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Kyiv Oblast was under massive drone and missile attack overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
- Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka. UAF General Staff reports 4 combat engagements took place in the Siversk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. UAF General Staff reports 5 combat engagements took place in the Kramatorsk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. UAF General Staff reports "operative information" as of 16:00 26.06.2025, providing a general update on the Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile threat for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles from the north moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles from the south towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles in southern Kirovohrad Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles continue to move towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна confirms missiles moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 19 enemy UAVs shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU provides the UAF General Staff 08:00 summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message shows #russiaHITScivilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports 365/371 air targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна reports RF launched 371 drones and missiles overnight, with main direction Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 8 missiles and 363 drones overnight, per UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. Internal security concerns noted with arrests of alleged foreign agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg. New reports confirm the photographer sentenced to 16 years for state treason for transferring a publicly available book on bunkers. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports a repair facility for Ukrainian military equipment in Erfurt, Germany, potentially damaged by fire. "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany, explicitly stating it's a Bundeswehr parking lot that was burned. This corroborates the RUF claim of targeting military equipment in Germany. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Fighterbomber" shows photo of "mysterious signs drawn by Air Force pilots in Belgorod Oblast," possibly related to operational markings or morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE - ambiguous imagery). TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - potential disruption to rail transport/logistics in RF). TASS and "Два майора" report law enforcement in Leningrad Oblast interrupted a "ritual" where participants buried two women alive, reflecting unusual internal security incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - highlights internal social/security issues, not directly military). "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for a new subject, "Fundamentals of Homeland Security," including grenade and Makarov pistol models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates a militarization of education/society). "Новости Москвы" reports children in Moscow Oblast are prohibited from being near bodies of water without adult supervision, indicating increased public safety measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects broader societal security concerns). TASS reports an investigation and arrest warrant request for a man who threw a child on the floor at Sheremetyevo airport, indicating public safety/law enforcement activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects domestic security issues). RUF "Colonelcassad" reports an FPV drone strike by GrV "Zapad" on five militants and a pickup truck near Bohuslavka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a fake report of military action involving Pacific Fleet exercises in Kamchatka attacking a fisherman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, countering negative narratives). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an individual arrested in Novorossiysk, confessing to providing information to Ukrainian sources on Ukrainian military object locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD releases drone footage depicting "powerful air strikes" by Russian Aerospace Forces using FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs on temporary deployment areas of enemy aircraft, showing multiple explosions in a village/settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," and that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin will meet with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve have been filed in Russian courts since the start of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a man who threw a child at Sheremetyevo Airport pleaded guilty, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes unrelated to military operations but reflecting social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo of an aircraft on an airfield with a caption about "Animal and plant world of airfields," indicating a focus on mundane aspects of airbase life. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a photo message of a Russian Presidential Decree, indicating formal state actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin prolonged the right to draft deferment for Old Believers until 2030, a social/religious policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk, possibly indicating increased military casualties being buried. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control, possibly related to internal security operations or counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding measures in response to "Berlin's arbitrary actions against Russian journalists," indicating a diplomatic escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" posts about Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, likely indicating RUF interest or activity in the area (LOW CONFIDENCE - no specific details given). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk for allegedly transmitting information on Russian ship locations, further corroborating RUF counter-intelligence activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an ongoing prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine under Istanbul agreements, with the RF MoD confirming the return of Russian servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Военкор Котенок" also confirms the prisoner exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" confirms a new prisoner exchange via Belarus, without specifying numbers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a court placed the former head of Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management) in Udmurtia under arrest for two months on bribery charges, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts video of a Russian deputy stating men go to war due to poverty, indicating a potential social/economic motivation for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The Washington Post stated Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse despite Western aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a presentation on the GBU-57 bunker buster, confirming continued RUF interest in Western advanced munitions and showcasing their own IO attempts to downplay Western capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a video from a NATO Summit showing a handshake between Erdoğan and Macron, indicating RUF tracking of high-level Western diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a court nationalized an oil company belonging to a Dagestan state secretary, further indicating RF internal anti-corruption measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells and support bases in Russia for sabotage and terrorist attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns photo message discusses a poll result stating a high percentage of labor migrants in Russia prefer Sharia law over secular law and are willing to protest for religious norms, implying internal security concerns within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts a video of Gorky Park, showing civilian life, which can be interpreted as normalcy propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine, indicating RUF's continued focus on information warfare and justification for its actions through historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, providing an official RUF diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin has arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit, signaling continued strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel (likely a Russian regional official) reports Nizhny Novgorod has become the "Youth Capital of the Union State" (Russia-Belarus), further emphasizing political and cultural integration between the two states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video reports on local theft of food donations for SVO participants by "local gypsies" in Podmoskovye, highlighting domestic social issues potentially impacting public support for the war effort and an attempt to control narratives around public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video commemorating the 10-year anniversary of Yevgeny Primakov's death, highlighting Russian political figures and history. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly military). RUF "Два майора" celebrates their channel's 3-year anniversary, indicating sustained RUF information operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reports on a Duma speech claiming positive attitudes towards migrants in Russia, indicating an an attempt to manage public perception of integration issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" video depicts Ukrainian servicemen returning, wrapped in flags, some showing tattoos (Ombudsman logo visible), indicating scenes from prisoner exchange or rotation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Старше Эдды" discusses Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov's statement on Western special services involving migrants in terror activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA posts image regarding Russian military personnel denied payments for cancer, citing "Operation Pipe" in Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" video shows freed POWs arriving by ambulance, with "Welcome Home" messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo message about Iran executing three men for spying for Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts video of two individuals running near railroad tracks, with no discernible military context. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Старше Эдды" again discusses Yuri Kokov's statement on migrants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" video shows a large double rainbow over a cityscape, indicating civilian life and no immediate military activity. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Dagestan State Secretary Magomed-Sultan Magomedov has been released under a non-disclosure agreement, which is a development in an internal RF anti-corruption case previously highlighted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a military deserter in Udmurtia opened fire on police and fled into the forest, indicating continued internal security incidents within RF involving military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports a Kaliningrad lawyer suffered a hypertensive crisis during her trial, indicating ongoing legal/political repression in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front, with initial evidence of use. This suggests a new indigenous long-range strike capability. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim, needs independent verification). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF РБК-Україна provide video messages confirming returning Ukrainian soldiers, reinforcing the prisoner exchange event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provides video of the prisoner exchange, with emotional accounts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports EU will open accession talks with Moldova on July 4, but not Ukraine, indicating EU internal dynamics impacting Ukraine's diplomatic progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF source) video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, waving Russian flags, confirming the reciprocal nature of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source) video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing joint military training with UK, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, indicating continued and robust international training support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, focusing on soldiers under 25, severely ill, and seriously wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests, indicating a focus on domestic industrial development, not directly military but reflects RF industrial capacity. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України (UAF source) warns of KABs over Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) provides a geopolitical map of the Cambodia-Thailand border. This is irrelevant to the current conflict and may be a misdirection or low-priority content. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly relevant). Два майора (RUF source) posts image that appears to be scarecrows, with caption indicating "tactical analysis." This is likely an an attempt at humorous or satirical content, not militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) also posts a photo of artillery systems with a caption about Chinese drone tests, indicating RUF interest in foreign military tech. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports on Lviv partial water outage due to an accident, a civilian infrastructure issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (Ukrainian source reporting on Russian content) video shows a Russian "SVO veteran" complaining about job rejections, highlighting veteran reintegration issues in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Офіс Генерального прокурора (UAF source) reports charges against four individuals for embezzling 1.6M UAH in charity donations for UAF in Sumy Oblast, highlighting ongoing internal corruption issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RUF source) photo message with caption "A conscript signed a contract" likely indicates continued coerced or incentivized contract signing for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports on pensioners being able to return money from Oschadbank to the Pension Fund, a civilian financial matter. (LOW CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports RUF has launched nearly 6,000 cluster munitions on Ukraine, highlighting continued indiscriminate targeting and scale of RUF violence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (Ukrainian military blogger) appeals for aid for soldiers, indicating continued resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Стрелков Игорь Иванович (RUF source) criticizes Russian authorities for "indistinct movements" and "complete lack of strategy," reflecting internal dissent within the hardline pro-war community. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO (UAF source) video shows 1129th ZRP destroying 7 UAVs, indicating continued UAF AD successes against drones. The drone shown appears to be a Shahed variant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Serbian PM states Serbia will not sign anti-Russian declarations, indicating continued Russian diplomatic influence in the Balkans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) (RUF source) reports European intelligence believes Iran preserved uranium despite US strikes, as per Financial Times. This reflects continued RUF interest in international nuclear politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) video features an Iranian leader speaking defiantly against the US regarding nuclear issues, indicating RUF amplification of anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Басурин о главном (RUF source) posts a poll regarding Polish citizen's opinions on their army, NATO, and Ukraine, indicating RUF interest in foreign public sentiment for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber (RUF source) posts "Rubric 'they write to us'," likely a general-interest or morale-related post without direct military intelligence. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Putin states Israel-Iran conflict is "in the past," attempting to control the narrative of regional conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Putin calls Western actions on Russian gold and forex reserves "robbery." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports Trump and Netanyahu agreed on a Gaza war cessation plan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) posts an image with a swastika and derogatory comments towards Ukrainians, demonstrating extreme RUF dehumanization and hate speech. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) reports Putin states Eurasian Economic Union unemployment rate is 2.8%, with Russia at 2.3%, highlighting economic stability claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) GUR reports striking Russian S-400 system in Crimea using a drone, with video evidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) posts video of individuals in tactical gear with "SPETSNAZ" branding, near a police van, suggesting law enforcement or special operations activity, not directly combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts video of a Russian soldier thanking subscribers for body armor and seeking more donations, indicating continued reliance on public support for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). President Zelenskiy / Official (UAF source), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF source), and РБК-Україна (UAF source) all disseminate the same video of President Zelenskyy awarding SBU Special Operations "A" Center personnel. This demonstrates high-level recognition and morale-boosting efforts for an elite unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) photo message with caption "У Брянську ГУРкіт! Дрони ГУР палять склади ракетного палива і паливно-мастильних матеріалів" (In Bryansk, GUR rumbles! GUR drones are burning missile fuel and lubricants warehouses) includes multiple images of a large fire and smoke plume in Bryansk, confirming a successful UAF GUR drone strike on a critical RUF logistics target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts a video of Ayatollah Khamenei speaking about the war with Israel, confirming continued RUF interest in amplifying anti-Western and regional conflict narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source) video shows military personnel interacting with civilians in a damaged urban environment, and a distressed civilian woman, suggesting ongoing humanitarian challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS (RUF source) video shows a Chinese journalist, Lu Yuiguang, who was wounded in Kursk Oblast during a UAF attack, stating that Chinese journalists are monitoring events in Kursk Oblast. This confirms the incident and will be used for RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (GUR) (UAF source) reports their "Ghosts" special unit struck critical and expensive S-400 Triumph AD system components in occupied Crimea using drones, likely launched from uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). Video evidence provided. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RUF source) video shows servicemen of 6th Motorised Rifle Division (Yug Group of Forces) honing skills with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in the rear area of the special military operation, indicating continued training and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) provides a "Summary for the day 26 June", indicating continued structured reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports that Hungary blocked the EU summit decision on starting accession talks for Ukraine, and that the first negotiation cluster is unlikely to open before Spring 2026. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two Tu-95MS long-range bombers redeployed from Olenya airfield to Engels airbase. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from a Ukrainian source reporting that Russia is helping North Korea build destroyers, potentially supplying Pantsir-M AD systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (RUF source) posts video about a UAF drone strike on a missile fuel warehouse in Bryansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts video with derogatory caption "Хохол осознал..." and showing a person on a train or industrial equipment, aiming to mock UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS (RUF source) reports a Steam gaming platform outage. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian relevance). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts images of alleged wreckage of a large Israeli Heron TP (Eitan) UAV shot down by Iranian AD, claiming it happened "during the war". (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, likely misattribution/misinformation). РБК-Україна posts a map of Ukraine showing air raid alerts due to drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС (RUF Source) reports a statement by Zelenskyy on the lack of funds in the Ukrainian budget for army needs, expressing hope for continued EU financial support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF Source) posts video with a caption requesting thermal imagers for the front, stating they save lives at night, indicating continued RUF reliance on public donations for key equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts a video portraying a tank commander ("Poet"), likely a propaganda piece for morale and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "They are starting to guess what it smells like" with a laughing emoji, and also "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." This is a direct RUF information operation piece, likely pre-positioning for further strikes on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RUF Source) posts "Top News Today" with images related to the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA (RUF Source) reports an anarchist went missing after being detained in Yekaterinburg and was beaten and taken outside the city. This highlights internal security issues in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko), highlighting a strategic resource gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message announcing Ramzan Kadyrov was awarded for achievements in architecture, which is a propaganda piece focused on internal Russian elites. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various regions of the RF and the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк (UAF source) reports "general update on mopeds (Shaheds)" - indicating continued regional UAV activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts a video of the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (Volgograd), thanking the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel for support, indicating continued unit-level morale and external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF source) posts photo of a Pantsir-S1 AA system with mini-missiles (TKB-1055) for anti-drone defense, reporting receipt by Russian forces from Rostec. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (RUF source) posts a photo message celebrating 'Two Majors' 3-year anniversary, confirming sustained RUF information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports Serbia's PM stated interest in closer ties with BRICS, indicating continued Russian diplomatic outreach to non-Western blocs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Trump claims a trade deal with China was signed yesterday (Wednesday). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы reports on legal penalties for showing a "middle finger" to road cameras, highlighting internal Russian social control. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not direct military relevance). TASS reports the EU summit did not approve the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, confirming internal EU divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ (RUF Source) reports four Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RUF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the EU Summit mandated the European Commission to prepare a plan to finance the militarization of the community by October, indicating a long-term strategic shift by the EU that will impact the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a multi-car traffic accident in Kabardino-Balkaria resulted in three fatalities. This is a civilian incident and not directly militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that American Film Academy invited Russian actor Yura Borisov to join its ranks. This is civilian news and not militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that Apti Alaudinov, Commander of the special unit 'Akhmat', claims SBU is developing various combinations to assassinate 'Akhmat' command staff. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO/claim). TASS reports "Rusal" shareholders decided not to pay dividends for 2024. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - civilian economic news). НгП раZVедка claims Russia has escalated military production to deliver hundreds of long-range precision munitions multiple times a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO/claim). ТАСС reports that Apti Alaudinov stated that Trump's actions in settling the Iran-Israel conflict saved Israel from complete defeat. This is a highly biased RUF IO statement aimed at praising Trump and potentially causing division among Western allies or influencing perceptions of regional power dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Дед будущей главы Соединенного Королевства MI-6 был пособником нацистов из Чернигова по прозвищу Мясник." (The grandfather of the future head of MI-6 of the United Kingdom was an accomplice of the Nazis from Chernihiv, nicknamed the Butcher. This was reported by The Daily Mail, whose journalists studied documents stored in the archives of the German city of Freiburg.) This is a new RUF information operation designed to discredit Western intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports that Russians transferred 24 billion rubles for the military over three years of the "All for Victory" project. This indicates sustained public fundraising for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volzhsky and two districts of Volgograd Oblast, per the governor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports temporary movement restrictions on the bridge over the Don River in Kalachevsky district, Volgograd Oblast, to clear UAV debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rostov Oblast interim governor reports AD activity overnight with no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that RF MoD states Yars mobile missile systems are on combat patrol routes as part of planned exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US Ambassador Tracy has completed her work and is leaving Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai reports sending children home from beaches, indicating civilian policing unrelated to the conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports Iran's parliament has approved a bill to end cooperation with the IAEA, signaling continued nuclear tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Kazakhstan expects to sign an intergovernmental agreement with Russia on building a nuclear power plant by year-end, signaling deepening energy ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Macron stated that US attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities were effective, corroborating previous reports of US strikes and indicating Western assessments of their impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo message implying internal RUF security concerns, showing Wahhabists threatening Russia and Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a daily summary for the morning of 27 June 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Saratov airport restrictions lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports EU failed to approve 18th sanctions package. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that 39 UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions. This confirms large-scale UAV activity and RUF AD response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine, indicating a new, likely desperate, form of forced mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo message showing the view from the navigator's seat of a long-range supersonic missile-bomber with variable-sweep wings on a combat course, indicating continued strategic bomber flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" posts a special report video "Guardian Angel of Donbas: 49 years of the Republic's father" which includes combat footage and memorial elements for fallen soldiers, reinforcing pro-war propaganda and unit morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "Return of the Colonizer" which is highly ambiguous without the image, but could be related to propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims that the American contingent in Europe will not decrease in the near future, indicating RUF tracking of NATO force posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber scammers targeting businessmen via Zoom, indicating internal security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). FSB detained a Crimean resident for collecting data on transport infrastructure and military units for SBU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the detained Crimean resident confessed to working for SBU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Новости Москвы reports Russians are having their bonuses cut. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman shot at police in Udmurtia, indicating internal security incidents involving military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Басурин о главном posts cultural video with no military relevance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF Два майора posts video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued resource needs for RUF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on an Iranian short-range AD system "Majid" used to intercept Israeli drones, indicating RUF interest in foreign AD capabilities and Middle East conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" reports a "traitor" in Crimea was gathering information for the enemy and preparing a terrorist attack, showing video of the arrest and suspect's confession. This confirms continued RUF counter-intelligence operations in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Vinnitsia Oblast: НгП раZVедка (RUF source) makes a derogatory comment about Vinnitsia being a "subsidized" area and having no "strategic value," indicating potential for RUF IO to dismiss the importance of this region, possibly to set conditions for future strikes or to downplay its significance in the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), indicating continued RUF drone activity targeting key infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 missiles and 2 "mopeds" (Shaheds) from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokon, still expecting loud impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later reports "minus" on Kinzhals. "Suspilne" confirms explosions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims hypersonic "Kinzhals" struck the UAF airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк confirms Starokostiantyniv is defending against Shahed-type UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Khmelnytskyi region, en route west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides contradictory reports regarding missile interceptions, first stating "minus" then "rockets were not shot down." This indicates confusion or conflicting initial reports during active AD engagement, requiring further confirmation. However, Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "2 missiles and 2 mopeds on Starokon" and then "about 4 missiles and 1 moped on Starokon" with expectation of "loud" impacts. This suggests multiple impacts occurred in the Starokostiantyniv area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on rockets from the current wave. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports only 2 of the 5 previously reported Shaheds are still heading towards Starokon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV in northern Khmelnytskyi heading towards Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard again in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff confirms active combat on the Khmelnytskyi axis as of 08:00, 27 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on Khmelnytskyi airfield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Key Changes from Previous Reports

Increased Dnipro Casualty Count: The death toll from the June 24 missile attack on Dnipro has increased, highlighting the continued severe civilian impact of RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Significant Air Attack Volume: Ukraine was subjected to a massive overnight attack by 8 missiles and 363 drones (total 371 targets), with the primary target being Starokostiantyniv. This confirms an extremely high intensity and volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Claim of Crimean Agent Network Disruption: RUF FSB claims to have detained a Crimean resident for collecting intelligence on transport infrastructure and military units for the SBU. This indicates RUF is actively working to counter UAF intelligence gathering in occupied territories and highlights their ongoing internal security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New UAF Air Interdiction: UAF Air Force reports shooting down a RUF reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Internal Social/Economic Measures: Reports of people with depression potentially losing driving licenses and cuts to Russian bonuses indicate new internal social control measures and potential economic strain affecting the Russian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Internal Military Incidents: A serviceman reportedly shot at police in Udmurtia, highlighting ongoing internal security challenges and potential discipline issues within RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Internal Corruption Update: Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov is confirmed to be in court for a pre-trial hearing related to a high-level corruption case (the "Husakov case"), reinforcing ongoing efforts to combat corruption within the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Combat Footage from Yalta (Confirmed Capture): New video from RUF "Voina DV" explicitly shows RUF 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta, including aerial footage of explosions and thermal imaging, further confirming this territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Air-to-Ground Strike in Kursk Oblast: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video evidence of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast, indicating successful UAF cross-border aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Appeal for Donations (Pokrovsk): RUF "Два майора" is directly appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and resource needs for RUF units in this critical area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Interest in Iranian AD: Colonelcassad reports on an Iranian short-range AD system ("Majid") used to intercept Israeli drones, indicating RUF's continued interest in foreign AD capabilities and their tracking of Middle East conflicts for lessons learned. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Southern Front Report: UAF "Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy" reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF Breakthrough Threatening UAF Logistics in Donetsk: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" explicitly reports that fighting north of Novoserhiivka is occurring in Molodetske and Udachne, and that the critical T0406 highway supplying the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is now under RUF fire control. This confirms a significant and direct threat to a vital UAF logistics artery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF African Corps Recruitment: RUF "Два майора" is openly advertising recruitment for the "African Corps" by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including both male and female medical personnel. This signals a broadening of RUF's force generation efforts and external projection capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF Intercepts Unusual RUF Radio Communications: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports the 63rd Brigade intercepted unusual enemy radio conversations, indicating potential RUF tactical distress or operational shifts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Continued Civilian Impacts in Dnipro (Video): UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" released a video showing emergency response and damage in Dnipro, reinforcing the severity of civilian impact from recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:
- Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 50,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, despite UAF reports these advances have been halted. Demonstrated sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including confirmed capture of Yalta and Dyleyevka, and newly confirmed capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko (confirmed by UAF and RUF visuals/claims). New RUF advances north of Yablonivka toward Konstantinovka are confirmed. RUF is also confirmed to be storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. New RUF reports confirm their forces have entered Udachne, a critical logistics hub, and are fighting for its liberation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically mentioning a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy, indicating preparations for a major offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This reinforces control and potential deep thrusts. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF continues sustained assault on Chasiv Yar, claiming control of main part of the city. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF Airborne Forces are reportedly striking UAF rear areas in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) corroborates high RUF losses from FPV drones during assault tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides visual confirmation of RUF stormtroopers during operations in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Басурин о главном" provides visual confirmation of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS in action near Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a potential new axis of advance following gains in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF video from "Два майора" (Sumy direction) indicates continued reconnaissance/fire missions on that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF photo from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (Kharkiv direction) suggests ongoing operational planning/activity. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video confirms active combat and Russian control in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video confirms 152-mm Msta-B howitzer operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video shows evacuation from LBS, confirming ongoing ground combat and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" reference to "expansion of the bridgehead" indicates continued ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows an FPV drone strike on UAF personnel and a pickup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" drone footage of "Anvar" detachment clearing buffer zones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from "Ukrainian militants," showing drone reconnaissance, artillery impacts, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" drone footage of 39th Motor Rifle Brigade operations shows active targeting and impacts in wooded areas, confirming continued small-unit tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), corroborating RUF ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of RUF FPV drone strikes, demonstrating continued tactical drone integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video on storming Yalta indicates continued focus on rapid ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of special forces destroying UAF vehicles near Karl Marx (Mirne) highlights effective small-unit targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" first-person video of strongpoint assault confirms continued offensive infantry tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment by ground support aircraft, indicating combined arms approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" reporting on "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation," confirming continued operational focus and ground activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests active RUF planning/operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk, indicating continued RUF FPV operations on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating RUF intent to pressure the Dnipropetrovsk border directly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video shows thermal/night vision drone footage of UAF infantry and vehicles targeted in Kupyansk, confirming continued RUF ground and air efforts on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" posts photo of Chinese artillery, indicating RUF's interest in artillery capabilities and foreign military technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts on a conscript signing a contract, indicating continued manpower generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides thermal/night vision video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and a vehicle in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA. This confirms continued effective RUF ground and FPV drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing successful UAF engagements against RUF personnel "burning out" in forests and tree lines, demonstrating RUF continues to commit personnel to attritional assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showcasing successful RUF operations against UAF/NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery using thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing an aerial view of a building with smoke emanating from it, potentially indicating a strike or damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" report of RUF delegation marking "unowned" houses in Kakhovka signals active consolidation of control in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" posts two photo messages captioned "Волчанское направление," and "Межевое направление," showing destroyed and damaged structures, confirming active engagement in Vovchansk and the Mezheve area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," providing a map illustrating RUF ground advances towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction and active combat operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirming continued RUF ground assaults and clearing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "MoD Russia" video shows servicemen of 6th Motorised Rifle Division (Yug Group of Forces) honing their skills during use of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in rear area of special military operation, indicating continued training and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions, confirming continued heavy aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka, confirming active RUF combat operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts video from "Константиновское направление. От элиты Армии России: от штурмовиков" showing a group of five individuals in military camouflage, standing in front of Russian and unit-specific flags, with a banner displaying 'ШТУРМОВОЙ ОТРЯД' (Assault Detachment) and 'ДВА МАЙОРА' (Two Majors). This indicates continued RUF ground operations by assault units in the Konstantinovka direction and confirms their ongoing propaganda efforts for these units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing reconnaissance from 69th Separate Brigade targeting and destroying a camouflaged UAF T-72M1 tank with two FPV drones in Southern Donetsk direction, confirming continued RUF FPV effectiveness and ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border, indicating active cross-border engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued RUF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports more than 40 combat engagements took place on the Pokrovsk direction today, confirming high intensity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF units successfully repelled 38 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction today, demonstrating effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports enemy forces conducted 6 airstrikes in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued air support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 4 combat engagements took place in the Siversk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 5 combat engagements took place in the Kramatorsk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 48 combat engagements took place along the entire front line, showing high intensity. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction, indicating RUF counter-UAV efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko), highlighting a strategic resource gain and confirming RUF claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing Russian military personnel preparing and deploying an FPV drone for reconnaissance or attack, confirming continued tactical drone operations by the 25th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts a video of the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (Volgograd), thanking the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel for support, indicating continued unit-level morale and external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports 40 combat engagements have taken place since 22:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts multiple photo messages of destroyed, damaged, and captured Ukrainian armored vehicles, accompanied by a caption stating "Destroyed, damaged, and captured enemy armored vehicles. And so it will be with every one." This serves as RUF propaganda to demonstrate successful BDA and undermine UAF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area, indicating active RUF planning/operations there, likely connected to the Toretsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь provides an "Outcome for June 26" summary, indicating continued active RUF operations and assessment of the battlefield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, possibly of military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas, with damage and explosions visible. The source labels it "Работает 'Рубикон'," indicating a specific RUF unit or system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment, including a car, displaying "НАРОДНЫЙ ФРОНТ" (People's Front) on the overlay, indicating continued tactical drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posts a video of Special Forces soldiers from the Siversk direction expressing gratitude for a DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopter received from public donors, indicating continued reliance on public support for critical equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar, indicating continued air support to ground operations. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR and begun fighting for its liberation. This represents a significant new ground development, confirming RUF forces are engaged in combat for a key UAF logistics hub. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Воин DV" posts video message captioned "Боевая работа операторов БПЛА #25_армии" showing drone combat operations, confirming continued tactical drone use by 25th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The accompanying video shows a soldier using a probe and a controlled detonation of an explosive device. This indicates ongoing RUF demining operations and confirms their presence in the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. The video shows a heavily damaged tracked armored vehicle, confirming active combat in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that a State Duma deputy claims Kyiv is losing control on the battlefield, reflecting RUF's ongoing IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF video from Colonelcassad shows an artillery position with ammunition, confirming continued ground fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction, indicating continued RUF activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ARHANHEL SPETSNAZ posts a video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Basurin o Glavnom posts multiple photos of a Soviet rocket launcher, labeled #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ (Day in History), which is historical content and not direct battlefield geometry. (LOW CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, which includes a tactical map of the Donetsk front indicating RUF advances and ongoing operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo also provides a tactical map for the Chasovoyarskoye direction, indicating RUF activity in this key area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire on enemy positions in support of assault units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports drones observed over Donetsk in Kuybyshevsky and Kyivsky districts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on UAF General Staff 08:00 summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment, including T-80 tanks, BMPs, Starlink terminals, and Baba Yaga drones, supporting R offensive in Donbas and border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone on the Southern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Воин DV provides video of 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta, showing active combat and RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Kotsnews provides drone footage compilation with thermal imaging showing a 'Bradley' IFV and other destroyed enemy equipment, confirming RUF reconnaissance and targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Два майора posts video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued resource needs for RUF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides drone footage from the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) direction, confirming the strategic importance of the T0406 highway and stating it's under RUF fire control. This visually corroborates their advances and threat to UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers. Production of Iskander missiles reportedly increased with Chinese assistance. Continued delivery of new Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft enhances tactical aviation. RUF is deploying "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations and new "Molniya" loitering munitions. They demonstrate effective counter-UAV capabilities, claiming 50 UAVs destroyed, including 6 over Bryansk Oblast. RUF Aerospace Forces continue large-scale aerial bombardments with FAB-1500s. RUF has received TKB-1055 mini-missiles for Pantsir systems to counter drones, indicating an adaptation in RUF AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" and "РБК-Україна" shows an RUF Shahed being destroyed by an air-to-air missile, confirming RUF's continued reliance on Shahed drones and UAF's effective air-to-air countermeasures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows effective reconnaissance (Orlan-10) and strike (Lancet) against UAF boat on Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." indicating persistent, widespread RUF aerial activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS video confirms Shahed strike on UAF temporary deployment point in Novoekonomicheskoe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows a strike and fire in Odessa, confirming continued long-range strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video depicting FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" confirms continued extensive use of heavy guided aerial bombs for area denial and destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating continued close air support for ground advances and degradation of UAF rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration, confirming UAF long-range drone capabilities against RUF-occupied civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment, indicating a well-integrated air-ground strike coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" reports RUF has launched nearly 6,000 cluster munitions, indicating extensive use of these indiscriminate weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" warns of KABs over Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued RUF air-launched munitions against civilian/military targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" reports UAF UAV strike on Bryansk resulted in injuries, indicating a tactical setback for UAF (casualties on own side from cross-border strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows clear black smoke plume rising from Bryansk after UAV fragments caused fire, indicating another logistical disruption for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" reports a group of enemy strike UAVs heading south in northern Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the region and potential targeting of ground forces or infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "РБК-Україна" confirms a large fire and destruction at a missile fuel and lubricants warehouse in Bryansk following a GUR drone strike, highlighting successful UAF deep strike capabilities impacting RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in central Sumy Oblast heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile threat for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two Tu-95MS long-range bombers redeployed from Olenya airfield to Engels airbase, indicating strategic air asset movement for potential future long-range strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна posts a map of Ukraine showing air raid alerts due to drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs in the north and west of Kherson Oblast, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the southern theater. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports an active air defense response to enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports RUF forces launched 3 missile strikes and 28 airstrikes on Ukrainian territory, highlighting continued aerial threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." This is a direct RUF information operation piece, likely pre-positioning for further strikes on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RUF Source) posts "Top News Today" with images related to the war, which include visual depictions of ongoing military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of RUF strike UAVs in eastern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various regions of the RF and the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in Kyiv heading from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a MiG-31K in the air from Savasleyka, with possible launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports two MiG-31K aircraft, one has already launched. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air raid alert across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video footage captioned "Воздушные бои в Сумской области: ВДВ завоёвывают господство в воздухе," indicating active RUF air operations, possibly drone-on-drone combat or air-to-ground strikes by VDV units in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Kinzhals, implying successful AD interception or impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна and UAF Air Force confirm MiG-31K launch and high-speed target in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ (RUF Source) reports four Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RUF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка posts an ambiguous but likely celebratory message, "Ох как похорошеет сейчас Украина." (Oh, how Ukraine will flourish now), immediately following reports of missile strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RUF UAVs are heading towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна corroborates the UAF Air Force report of enemy drones flying towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Air Defense is active in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка channel, known for IO, posts "🚀 Кыюв не нужен" (Kyiv is not needed) and photo messages captioned "🚀Репарации летят" (Reparations are flying), explicitly linking current missile/drone activity to their ongoing propaganda campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), indicating continued RUF drone activity targeting key infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк confirms Starokostiantyniv is defending against Shahed-type UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles from the north moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles from the south towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles in southern Kirovohrad Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles continue to move towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна confirms missiles moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new missile from the south heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful UAF AD against missiles heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kyiv, heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка claims Russia has escalated military production to deliver hundreds of long-range precision munitions multiple times a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO/claim). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides conflicting reports regarding missile interceptions, first stating "minus" then "rockets were not shot down." This indicates confusion or conflicting initial reports during active AD engagement, requiring further confirmation. However, Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "2 missiles and 2 mopeds on Starokon" and then "about 4 missiles and 1 moped on Starokon" with expectation of "loud" impacts. This suggests multiple impacts occurred in the Starokostiantyniv area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Khmelnytskyi region, en route west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on rockets from the current wave. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports on "remaining mopeds" (Shaheds). This indicates the continuation of Shahed drone activity, but with a reduced number from earlier reports, suggesting successful UAF AD or drones reaching their limits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AD claims destruction of UAVs over Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Temporary flight restrictions in Samara and Saratov airports indicate continued UAF drone activity impacting RF airspace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber posts a photo message, possibly from an airbase. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AV Bogomaz reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV in northern Khmelnytskyi heading towards Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard again in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on weapon/ammunition warehouses in Boryspil and Hostomel, and industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo message showing the view from the navigator's seat of a long-range supersonic missile-bomber with variable-sweep wings on a combat course, indicating continued strategic bomber flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports 365/371 air targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна reports RF launched 371 drones and missiles overnight, with main direction Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 8 missiles and 363 drones overnight, per UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that the GUR's War&Sanctions portal highlights a new series of Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs equipped with cameras and AI. This indicates a significant upgrade to RUF's drone capabilities for reconnaissance and targeting, potentially enabling more precise strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports an RUF strike on a UAF temporary deployment point near Shakhove, DNR, with video evidence showing drone targeting and significant damage. This confirms continued RUF air support to ground operations targeting UAF infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Vinnitsia Oblast: НгП раZVедка (RUF source) makes a derogatory comment about Vinnitsia being a "subsidized" area and having no "strategic value," indicating potential for RUF IO to dismiss the importance of this region, possibly to set conditions for future strikes or to downplay its significance in the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), indicating continued RUF drone activity targeting key infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 missiles and 2 "mopeds" (Shaheds) from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokon, still expecting loud impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later reports "minus" on Kinzhals. "Suspilne" confirms explosions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims hypersonic "Kinzhals" struck the UAF airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк confirms Starokostiantyniv is defending against Shahed-type UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Khmelnytskyi region, en route west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides contradictory reports regarding missile interceptions, first stating "minus" then "rockets were not shot down." This indicates confusion or conflicting initial reports during active AD engagement, requiring further confirmation. However, Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "2 missiles and 2 mopeds on Starokon" and then "about 4 missiles and 1 moped on Starokon" with expectation of "loud" impacts. This suggests multiple impacts occurred in the Starokostiantyniv area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on rockets from the current wave. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports only 2 of the 5 previously reported Shaheds are still heading towards Starokon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV in northern Khmelnytskyi heading towards Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard again in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff confirms active combat on the Khmelnytskyi axis as of 08:00, 27 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on Khmelnytskyi airfield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Key Changes from Previous Reports

Increased Dnipro Casualty Count: The death toll from the June 24 missile attack on Dnipro has increased, highlighting the continued severe civilian impact of RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Significant Air Attack Volume: Ukraine was subjected to a massive overnight attack by 8 missiles and 363 drones (total 371 targets), with the primary target being Starokostiantyniv. This confirms an extremely high intensity and volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Claim of Crimean Agent Network Disruption: RUF FSB claims to have detained a Crimean resident for collecting intelligence on transport infrastructure and military units for the SBU. This indicates RUF is actively working to counter UAF intelligence gathering in occupied territories and highlights their ongoing internal security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New UAF Air Interdiction: UAF Air Force reports shooting down a RUF reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Internal Social/Economic Measures: Reports of people with depression potentially losing driving licenses and cuts to Russian bonuses indicate new internal social control measures and potential economic strain affecting the Russian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Internal Military Incidents: A serviceman reportedly shot at police in Udmurtia, highlighting ongoing internal security challenges and potential discipline issues within RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Internal Corruption Update: Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov is confirmed to be in court for a pre-trial hearing related to a high-level corruption case (the "Husakov case"), reinforcing ongoing efforts to combat corruption within the Ukrainian government. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Combat Footage from Yalta (Confirmed Capture): New video from RUF "Voina DV" explicitly shows RUF 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta, including aerial footage of explosions and thermal imaging, further confirming this territorial gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Air-to-Ground Strike in Kursk Oblast: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video evidence of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast, indicating successful UAF cross-border aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Appeal for Donations (Pokrovsk): RUF "Два майора" is directly appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and resource needs for RUF units in this critical area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Interest in Iranian AD: Colonelcassad reports on an Iranian short-range AD system ("Majid") used to intercept Israeli drones, indicating RUF's continued interest in foreign AD capabilities and their tracking of Middle East conflicts for lessons learned. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Southern Front Report: UAF "Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy" reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF Breakthrough Threatening UAF Logistics in Donetsk: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" explicitly reports that fighting north of Novoserhiivka is occurring in Molodetske and Udachne, and that the critical T0406 highway supplying the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is now under RUF fire control. This confirms a significant and direct threat to a vital UAF logistics artery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF African Corps Recruitment: RUF "Два майора" is openly advertising recruitment for the "African Corps" by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including both male and female medical personnel. This signals a broadening of RUF's force generation efforts and external projection capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: UAF Intercepts Unusual RUF Radio Communications: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports the 63rd Brigade intercepted unusual enemy radio conversations, indicating potential RUF tactical distress or operational shifts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Continued Civilian Impacts in Dnipro (Video): UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" released a video showing emergency response and damage in Dnipro, reinforcing the severity of civilian impact from recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Upgraded Shahed-136 MS with AI/Camera: Operatyvnyi ZSU (GUR) reports on a new series of Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs with integrated cameras and AI, indicating a significant RUF capability upgrade for reconnaissance and precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:
- Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 50,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, despite UAF reports these advances have been halted. Demonstrated sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including confirmed capture of Yalta and Dyleyevka, and newly confirmed capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko (confirmed by UAF and RUF visuals/claims). New RUF advances north of Yablonivka toward Konstantinovka are confirmed. RUF is also confirmed to be storming Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. New RUF reports confirm their forces have entered Udachne, a critical logistics hub, and are fighting for its liberation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reports a large movement of equipment and ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically mentioning a convoy of 20+ trucks with personnel and 5 BMP/BMD class armored vehicles moving from Crimea/Kherson towards Mariupol/Novozovsk/Taganrog/Rostov/Sumy, indicating preparations for a major offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This reinforces control and potential deep thrusts. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF continues sustained assault on Chasiv Yar, claiming control of main part of the city. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF Airborne Forces are reportedly striking UAF rear areas in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) corroborates high RUF losses from FPV drones during assault tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides visual confirmation of RUF stormtroopers during operations in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Басурин о главном" provides visual confirmation of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS in action near Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a potential new axis of advance following gains in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF video from "Два майора" (Sumy direction) indicates continued reconnaissance/fire missions on that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF photo from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (Kharkiv direction) suggests ongoing operational planning/activity. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video confirms active combat and Russian control in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video confirms 152-mm Msta-B howitzer operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video shows evacuation from LBS, confirming ongoing ground combat and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" reference to "expansion of the bridgehead" indicates continued ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows an FPV drone strike on UAF personnel and a pickup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" drone footage of "Anvar" detachment clearing buffer zones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from "Ukrainian militants," showing drone reconnaissance, artillery impacts, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" drone footage of 39th Motor Rifle Brigade operations shows active targeting and impacts in wooded areas, confirming continued small-unit tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), corroborating RUF ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of RUF FPV drone strikes, demonstrating continued tactical drone integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video on storming Yalta indicates continued focus on rapid ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of special forces destroying UAF vehicles near Karl Marx (Mirne) highlights effective small-unit targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" first-person video of strongpoint assault confirms continued offensive infantry tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment by ground support aircraft, indicating combined arms approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" reporting on "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation," confirming continued operational focus and ground activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests active RUF planning/operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk, indicating continued RUF FPV operations on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF Source) photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating RUF intent to pressure the Dnipropetrovsk border directly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video shows thermal/night vision drone footage of UAF infantry and vehicles targeted in Kupyansk, confirming continued RUF ground and air efforts on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" posts photo of Chinese artillery, indicating RUF's interest in artillery capabilities and foreign military technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts on a conscript signing a contract, indicating continued manpower generation efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provides thermal/night vision video of RUF FPV drones striking UAF personnel and a vehicle in the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming over 10 KIA. This confirms continued effective RUF ground and FPV drone capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) provides drone footage showing successful UAF engagements against RUF personnel "burning out" in forests and tree lines, demonstrating RUF continues to commit personnel to attritional assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides new drone footage of fierce fighting near Pokrovsk, showcasing successful RUF operations against UAF/NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery using thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video from the Zaporizhzhia front, showing an aerial view of a building with smoke emanating from it, potentially indicating a strike or damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" report of RUF delegation marking "unowned" houses in Kakhovka signals active consolidation of control in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" posts two photo messages captioned "Волчанское направление," and "Межевое направление," showing destroyed and damaged structures, confirming active engagement in Vovchansk and the Mezheve area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts two photo messages captioned "Продвижение ВС РФ севернее Яблоновки на Константиновского направления," providing a map illustrating RUF ground advances towards Konstantinovka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a photo message and video captioned "Орехов - Малая Токmačka," showing extensive destruction and active combat operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirming continued RUF ground assaults and clearing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "MoD Russia" video shows servicemen of 6th Motorised Rifle Division (Yug Group of Forces) honing their skills during use of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in rear area of special military operation, indicating continued training and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Kotsnews" posts video of FAB strikes on UAF positions, confirming continued heavy aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts aerial footage with thermal imaging of explosions and targeting reticles in Sumy direction, near Andreevka, confirming active RUF combat operations in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF Source) posts video from "Константиновское направление. От элиты Армии России: от штурмовиков" showing a group of five individuals in military camouflage, standing in front of Russian and unit-specific flags, with a banner displaying 'ШТУРМОВОЙ ОТРЯД' (Assault Detachment) and 'ДВА МАЙОРА' (Two Majors). This indicates continued RUF ground operations by assault units in the Konstantinovka direction and confirms their ongoing propaganda efforts for these units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing reconnaissance from 69th Separate Brigade targeting and destroying a camouflaged UAF T-72M1 tank with two FPV drones in Southern Donetsk direction, confirming continued RUF FPV effectiveness and ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (RUF Source) posts drone footage showing RUF reconnaissance units destroying UAF infantry and firing points near Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast border, indicating active cross-border engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports Russian Federation forces are increasing assault operations in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued RUF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports more than 40 combat engagements took place on the Pokrovsk direction today, confirming high intensity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports UAF units successfully repelled 38 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction today, demonstrating effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports enemy forces conducted 6 airstrikes in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued air support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 4 combat engagements took place in the Siversk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 5 combat engagements took place in the Kramatorsk direction, with UAF repelling them all. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports 48 combat engagements took place along the entire front line, showing high intensity. Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video of RUF FPV drones destroying "Baba Yaga" type UAVs in the Southern Donetsk direction, indicating RUF counter-UAV efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns (RUF Source) posts a photo message claiming RUF liberated a major lithium deposit in the DNR (likely near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko), highlighting a strategic resource gain and confirming RUF claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (RUF Source) posts video showing Russian military personnel preparing and deploying an FPV drone for reconnaissance or attack, confirming continued tactical drone operations by the 25th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора (RUF source) posts a video of the 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (Volgograd), thanking the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel for support, indicating continued unit-level morale and external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff reports 40 combat engagements have taken place since 22:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts multiple photo messages of destroyed, damaged, and captured Ukrainian armored vehicles, accompanied by a caption stating "Destroyed, damaged, and captured enemy armored vehicles. And so it will be with every one." This serves as RUF propaganda to demonstrate successful BDA and undermine UAF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posts a tactical map for the Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka area, indicating active RUF planning/operations there, likely connected to the Toretsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь provides an "Outcome for June 26" summary, indicating continued active RUF operations and assessment of the battlefield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides a video showing drone reconnaissance/attack footage, possibly of military vehicles and infrastructure in Donbas, with damage and explosions visible. The source labels it "Работает 'Рубикон'," indicating a specific RUF unit or system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides new video footage of a 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade FPV operator striking enemy equipment, including a car, displaying "НАРОДНЫЙ ФРОНТ" (People's Front) on the overlay, indicating continued tactical drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad posts a video of Special Forces soldiers from the Siversk direction expressing gratitude for a DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopter received from public donors, indicating continued reliance on public support for critical equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar, indicating continued air support to ground operations. RUF source TASS reports that Marochko stated RUF forces have entered Udachne in DNR and begun fighting for its liberation. This represents a significant new ground development, confirming RUF forces are engaged in combat for a key UAF logistics hub. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Воин DV" posts video message captioned "Боевая работа операторов БПЛА #25_армии" showing drone combat operations, confirming continued tactical drone use by 25th Combined Arms Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that sappers of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) have neutralized over 60 explosive objects in Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The accompanying video shows a soldier using a probe and a controlled detonation of an explosive device. This indicates ongoing RUF demining operations and confirms their presence in the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad provides new video footage of "trophy equipment" from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating in Sumy Oblast. The video shows a heavily damaged tracked armored vehicle, confirming active combat in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that a State Duma deputy claims Kyiv is losing control on the battlefield, reflecting RUF's ongoing IO narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF video from Colonelcassad shows an artillery position with ammunition, confirming continued ground fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction, indicating continued RUF activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ARHANHEL SPETSNAZ posts a video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued heavy fighting and resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Basurin o Glavnom posts multiple photos of a Soviet rocket launcher, labeled #ДЕНЬвИСТОРИИ (Day in History), which is historical content and not direct battlefield geometry. (LOW CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo provides a frontal summary for the morning of 27.06.2025, which includes a tactical map of the Donetsk front indicating RUF advances and ongoing operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo also provides a tactical map for the Chasovoyarskoye direction, indicating RUF activity in this key area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video shows artillery of the 36th Army conducting daily fire on enemy positions in support of assault units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports drones observed over Donetsk in Kuybyshevsky and Kyivsky districts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU reports on UAF General Staff 08:00 summary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment, including T-80 tanks, BMPs, Starlink terminals, and Baba Yaga drones, supporting R offensive in Donbas and border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports RUF maintains high intensity of shelling and unsuccessful assault attempts near Antonivsky Bridge and in the island zone on the Southern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Воин DV provides video of 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta, showing active combat and RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Kotsnews provides drone footage compilation with thermal imaging showing a 'Bradley' IFV and other destroyed enemy equipment, confirming RUF reconnaissance and targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Два майора posts video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued resource needs for RUF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" explicitly reports that fierce fighting continues north of Novoserhiivka, specifically in the areas of Molodetske and Udachne, and states that the important T0406 highway supplying the Ukrainian grouping in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is now under RUF fire control. This represents confirmed, deeper RUF penetration into UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" is recruiting for the "African Corps" from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including both male and female medical personnel, indicating continued and diversified force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Rybar provides analysis on "Liberation of Zarya" indicating continued focus on territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers. Production of Iskander missiles reportedly increased with Chinese assistance. Continued delivery of new Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft enhances tactical aviation. RUF is deploying "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations and new "Molniya" loitering munitions. They demonstrate effective counter-UAV capabilities, claiming 50 UAVs destroyed, including 6 over Bryansk Oblast. RUF Aerospace Forces continue large-scale aerial bombardments with FAB-1500s. RUF has received TKB-1055 mini-missiles for Pantsir systems to counter drones, indicating an adaptation in RUF AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" and "РБК-Україна" shows an RUF Shahed being destroyed by an air-to-air missile, confirming RUF's continued reliance on Shahed drones and UAF's effective air-to-air countermeasures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows effective reconnaissance (Orlan-10) and strike (Lancet) against UAF boat on Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." indicating persistent, widespread RUF aerial activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS video confirms Shahed strike on UAF temporary deployment point in Novoekonomicheskoe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows a strike and fire in Odessa, confirming continued long-range strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video depicting FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" confirms continued extensive use of heavy guided aerial bombs for area denial and destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating continued close air support for ground advances and degradation of UAF rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration, confirming UAF long-range drone capabilities against RUF-occupied civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment, indicating a well-integrated air-ground strike coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" reports RUF has launched nearly 6,000 cluster munitions, indicating extensive use of these indiscriminate weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" warns of KABs over Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued RUF air-launched munitions against civilian/military targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" reports UAF UAV strike on Bryansk resulted in injuries, indicating a tactical setback for UAF (casualties on own side from cross-border strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" video shows clear black smoke plume rising from Bryansk after UAV fragments caused fire, indicating another logistical disruption for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України" reports a group of enemy strike UAVs heading south in northern Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the region and potential targeting of ground forces or infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "РБК-Україна" confirms a large fire and destruction at a missile fuel and lubricants warehouse in Bryansk following a GUR drone strike, highlighting successful UAF deep strike capabilities impacting RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF strike UAVs in central Sumy Oblast heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile threat for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two Tu-95MS long-range bombers redeployed from Olenya airfield to Engels airbase, indicating strategic air asset movement for potential future long-range strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна posts a map of Ukraine showing air raid alerts due to drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs in the north and west of Kherson Oblast, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF drone activity in the southern theater. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports an active air defense response to enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). УНН (UAF Source) reports RUF forces launched 3 missile strikes and 28 airstrikes on Ukrainian territory, highlighting continued aerial threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF Source) reports air raid alert in Kyiv and several regions due to UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна (UAF Source) reports enemy UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка (RUF Source) posts a photo message stating "Kyiv is not needed. It will be LOUD there very soon." This is a direct RUF information operation piece, likely pre-positioning for further strikes on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia (RUF Source) posts "Top News Today" with images related to the war, which include visual depictions of ongoing military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of RUF strike UAVs in eastern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports 16 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over various regions of the RF and the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in Kyiv heading from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a MiG-31K in the air from Savasleyka, with possible launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports two MiG-31K aircraft, one has already launched. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports air raid alert across all of Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air raid alert across Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video footage captioned "Воздушные бои в Сумской области: ВДВ завоёвывают господство в воздухе," indicating active RUF air operations, possibly drone-on-drone combat or air-to-ground strikes by VDV units in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" on Kinzhals, implying successful AD interception or impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна and UAF Air Force confirm MiG-31K launch and high-speed target in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). AV БогомаZ (RUF Source) reports four Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by RUF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка posts an ambiguous but likely celebratory message, "Ох как похорошеет сейчас Украина." (Oh, how Ukraine will flourish now), immediately following reports of missile strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports RUF UAVs are heading towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна corroborates the UAF Air Force report of enemy drones flying towards Kyiv from the east. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports that Air Defense is active in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка channel, known for IO, posts "🚀 Кыюв не нужен" (Kyiv is not needed) and photo messages captioned "🚀Репарации летят" (Reparations are flying), explicitly linking current missile/drone activity to their ongoing propaganda campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), indicating continued RUF drone activity targeting key infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк confirms Starokostiantyniv is defending against Shahed-type UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles from the north moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles from the south towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports cruise missiles in southern Kirovohrad Oblast, heading northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles continue to move towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна confirms missiles moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new missile from the south heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports successful UAF AD against missiles heading towards Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 Shahed-type UAVs are flying over Kyiv, heading west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка claims Russia has escalated military production to deliver hundreds of long-range precision munitions multiple times a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO/claim). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides conflicting reports regarding missile interceptions, first stating "minus" then "rockets were not shot down." This indicates confusion or conflicting initial reports during active AD engagement, requiring further confirmation. However, Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "2 missiles and 2 mopeds on Starokon" and then "about 4 missiles and 1 moped on Starokon" with expectation of "loud" impacts. This suggests multiple impacts occurred in the Starokostiantyniv area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Khmelnytskyi region, en route west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on rockets from the current wave. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports on "remaining mopeds" (Shaheds). This indicates the continuation of Shahed drone activity, but with a reduced number from earlier reports, suggesting successful UAF AD or drones reaching their limits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AD claims destruction of UAVs over Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Temporary flight restrictions in Samara and Saratov airports indicate continued UAF drone activity impacting RF airspace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Fighterbomber posts a photo message, possibly from an airbase. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports that 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AV Bogomaz reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV in northern Khmelnytskyi heading towards Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard again in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on weapon/ammunition warehouses in Boryspil and Hostomel, and industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo message showing the view from the navigator's seat of a long-range supersonic missile-bomber with variable-sweep wings on a combat course, indicating continued strategic bomber flights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports 365/371 air targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF РБК-Україна reports RF launched 371 drones and missiles overnight, with main direction Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 8 missiles and 363 drones overnight, per UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that the GUR's War&Sanctions portal highlights a new series of Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs equipped with cameras and AI. This indicates a significant upgrade to RUF's drone capabilities for reconnaissance and targeting, potentially enabling more precise strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports an RUF strike on a UAF temporary deployment point near Shakhove, DNR, with video evidence showing drone targeting and significant damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Vinnitsia Oblast: НгП раZVедка (RUF source) makes a derogatory comment about Vinnitsia being a "subsidized" area and having no "strategic value," indicating potential for RUF IO to dismiss the importance of this region, possibly to set conditions for future strikes or to downplay its significance in the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports that a "moped" (Shahed) is approaching Starokon (likely Starokostiantyniv), indicating continued RUF drone activity targeting key infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports 2 missiles and 2 "mopeds" (Shaheds) from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokon, still expecting loud impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України) report missiles (likely Kinzhals) are heading towards Starokostiantyniv. Николаевский Ванёк reports a Kinzhal hit in Starokostiantyniv and later reports "minus" on Kinzhals. "Suspilne" confirms explosions in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims hypersonic "Kinzhals" struck the UAF airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs are approaching Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RUF UAVs on the outskirts of Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Ванёк confirms Starokostiantyniv is defending against Shahed-type UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy strike UAVs in Khmelnytskyi region, en route west. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek provides contradictory reports regarding missile interceptions, first stating "minus" then "rockets were not shot down." This indicates confusion or conflicting initial reports during active AD engagement, requiring further confirmation. However, Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirms "2 missiles and 2 mopeds on Starokon" and then "about 4 missiles and 1 moped on Starokon" with expectation of "loud" impacts. This suggests multiple impacts occurred in the Starokostiantyniv area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports "minus" on rockets from the current wave. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports only 2 of the 5 previously reported Shaheds are still heading towards Starokon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports enemy UAV in northern Khmelnytskyi heading towards Starokostiantyniv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Suspilne" reports explosions heard again in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff confirms active combat on the Khmelnytskyi axis as of 08:00, 27 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims strikes on Khmelnytskyi airfield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Immediate Exploitation of Breakthroughs: RUF is demonstrating intent to immediately exploit tactical gains, as evidenced by the reported entry into Udachne directly following advances in Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko. This signifies an adaptive operational tempo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Increased Use of Thermal/Night Vision Drones: RUF "Операция Z" and "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" provide new thermal/night vision drone footage from Pokrovsk and Southern Donetsk, indicating a heightened capability for night operations and targeting UAF personnel during rotations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Persistent FPV Drone Operations: Continued use of FPV drones by RUF across various axes (Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kursk border) confirms their integral role in RUF tactical operations for reconnaissance and precision strikes against UAF personnel, vehicles, and strongpoints. This also includes new RUF capabilities to counter "Baba Yaga" type UAF drones using FPV drones. The 25th Combined Arms Army's FPV drone operations near the front line further confirm this adaptation, with new visual evidence of drone operations. New video from RUF "Воин DV" shows continued tactical FPV drone strikes by the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Serhii Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OGA) reports continued FPV drone attacks on Nikopol district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborates FPV drone attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video on "combat brotherhood" showing drone preparation, likely for IED or attack mission, indicating continued tactical innovation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Kotsnews provides drone footage compilation showing destroyed enemy equipment, confirming RUF reconnaissance and targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New Anti-Drone Missile for Pantsir: RUF's receipt of TKB-1055 mini-missiles for Pantsir systems specifically for anti-drone defense indicates a direct adaptation to the increased drone threat, aiming to improve AD effectiveness against smaller UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Integrated Air-Ground Coordination: RUF continues to demonstrate effective coordination between FAB strikes (heavy aerial bombardment) and ground advances, particularly observed in Donetsk Oblast, indicating a refined combined arms approach. The video of Russian Aerospace Forces striking UAF positions near Popovo Yar confirms this. RUF "Воин DV" video shows daily artillery support by 36th Army for assault units, confirming integrated fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" video shows 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar system firing on UAF positions on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD Russia video claims the Tsentr Group of Forces’ Nona-K towed mortar crew destroyed a UAV command post of the AFU in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Colonelcassad video highlights "Grad" MLRS operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Consolidation of Control in Occupied Territories: Reports of RUF delegations marking "unowned" houses in Kakhovka signal systematic efforts to confiscate property and consolidate administrative control, supporting long-term occupation objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Continued Reliance on Attritional Assaults: The high RUF casualties reported near Pokrovsk from "meat grinder" assaults indicate a continued, albeit costly, reliance on human wave tactics to achieve territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Expanded Cross-Border Operations: RUF reconnaissance and destruction operations in Sumy/Chernihiv buffer zones and engagements near Tyotkino (Kursk Oblast) indicate active efforts to secure border areas and potentially disrupt UAF cross-border activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast, confirming UAF cross-border aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Increased RUF Air Operations in Sumy: The new RUF reporting of "air battles" and VDV involvement in "gaining air superiority" in Sumy Oblast, along with new reports of a RUF drone group moving west and towards Chernihiv Oblast, indicates an adaptation in RUF air strategy for this sector, potentially including increased drone-on-drone combat or close air support and attempts to flank UAF positions. The presence of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) in Sumy Oblast, confirmed by their own video of trophy equipment, confirms VDV deployment and active engagement in this sector, indicating a higher-tier RUF force committed to this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged to shoot it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Targeting of UAF Armored Vehicles for Propaganda: RUF "Colonelcassad" posts multiple images of destroyed/captured UAF armored vehicles with a strong propaganda caption, suggesting a deliberate effort to collect and publicize BDA on UAF armored losses for morale and IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Операция Z" video (Военкоры Русской Весны) shows "Rubicon" unit mass burning enemy equipment, including T-80 tanks and BMPs, supporting RUF offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Continued Pressure on Toretsk Axis: The new RUF tactical map for Dzerzhinsk-Dyliyivka explicitly confirms continued RUF operational planning for advances on the Toretsk axis, which has seen recent intensified fighting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Demining Operations in Occupied Territories: The new report of VDV sappers demining Bakhmut confirms RUF's ongoing efforts to secure captured areas, highlighting their long-term intent to hold and fortify these gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Adaptation to UAF Deep Strikes on RF Territory: The reporting of RUF AD activity in Rostov and Volgograd and temporary airport closures in Samara and Saratov due to UAV threats, along with reported AD activity in Rostov and Volgograd, indicate that UAF deep strikes are forcing RUF to divert resources and attention to homeland defense, potentially straining logistics for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rostov Oblast interim governor confirms AD activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AV Bogomaz reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Samara airport restrictions lifted also confirm adaptation. TASS reports Saratov airport restrictions have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports that 39 UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Strategic Missile Force Drills: The RF MoD confirming Yars mobile missile systems on combat patrol routes as part of planned exercises highlights a routine, yet significant, display of strategic force readiness, potentially aimed at deterrence or signaling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" photo message from strategic bomber confirms continued strategic air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Internal Military Discipline Concerns: RUF military bloggers (Филолог в засаде) are openly discussing the issue of "Unauthorized Abandonment of Unit" (AWOL) and advocating for stricter penalties for deserters. This internal discussion and call for increased discipline indicate an adaptive response to potential morale or command issues within RUF ranks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman shot at police in Udmurtia, highlighting internal security incidents involving military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Anticipation of Major Offensive on Zaporizhzhia Front: RUF "Операция Z" explicitly states Russia will launch a powerful offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction in the coming days, citing UAF reports of large equipment and ammunition movements. This pre-announcement of an offensive is a tactical adaptation, possibly to influence UAF force posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New Forced Mobilization Tactics: ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine, indicating a new, likely desperate, form of forced mobilization or recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Tracking of NATO Force Posture: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claiming that the American contingent in Europe will not decrease in the near future indicates RUF's continued tracking of NATO force posture and adaptation to a prolonged US presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Drone Interception: New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Cultural/Propaganda Output: RUF "Басурин о главном" posts a video of a stage performance, likely opera, labeled #КУЛЬТУРА, indicating continued efforts to maintain civilian normalcy and cultural output during conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Upgraded Shahed-136 MS with AI/Camera: Operatyvnyi ZSU (GUR) reports on a new series of Iranian-made Shahed-136 MS UAVs with integrated cameras and AI. This is a significant adaptation by RUF, improving their drone reconnaissance and targeting capabilities, potentially leading to more precise strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Recruitment for "African Corps": RUF "Два майора" is actively recruiting for the "African Corps" from the Ministry of Defense, including women medics. This indicates a continued adaptive effort by RUF to generate and project force, potentially for operations outside Ukraine, or to backfill personnel requirements from other units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Vulnerability of Rail Logistics: UAF successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirm a significant vulnerability in RUF's rail-based logistics network. This indicates potential for sustained disruption if UAF maintains this interdiction capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Bryansk Fuel Depot Strike: The confirmed GUR drone strike on a missile fuel and lubricants warehouse in Bryansk represents a significant blow to RUF logistical capabilities, particularly for air and missile assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Public Support for Equipment: RUF sources (e.g., "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", "Colonelcassad", "Операция Z") continue to post appeals for public donations for military equipment (e.g., night vision, body armor, thermal imagers), suggesting ongoing reliance on supplementary public funding to meet tactical equipment needs. The 255th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment's direct thanks to a Telegram channel for support further indicates this reliance. The new video from Colonelcassad showing Special Forces thanking donors for a DJI Mavic 3 Pro quadcopter further confirms this ongoing reliance. TASS reports 24 billion rubles collected via public project, demonstrating significant, but still supplementary, public financing. ARHANHEL SPETSNAZ has appealed for donations for the Pokrovsk direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" explicitly states a "collection for paratroopers" to acquire drones and other equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Два майора posts video appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security Challenges on Logistics: Reports of aid theft by ethnic minorities in Podmoskovye highlight potential internal security and logistical integrity issues that could impact supply lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Impact of Weather on Logistics: Hurricane in Luhansk and heavy rain in Moscow indicate localized weather events that could impact ground and air logistics, particularly drone operations and ground mobility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Logistical Strain from RF Domestic UAV Activity: Airport closures in Samara and Saratov due to UAV threats, along with reported AD activity in Rostov and Volgograd, indicate that UAF deep strikes are forcing RUF to divert resources and attention to homeland defense, potentially straining logistics for frontline operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rostov Oblast interim governor confirms AD activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AV Bogomaz reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Samara airport restrictions lifted also confirm adaptation. TASS reports Saratov airport restrictions have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports that 39 UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Forced Mobilization Impact: ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine. This indicates that traditional volunteer recruitment is insufficient, highlighting a potential strain on manpower sustainment, forcing civilian institutions to participate in recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Economic Strain: RUF Новости Москвы reports Russians are having their bonuses cut, which may indicate economic strain potentially impacting civilian support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video from a charity fund appealing for help, highlighting the continued, and possibly growing, reliance on non-state sources to support the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

Centralized Decision-Making: Putin's direct engagement with Lukashenko on bilateral relations and Belousov's public statements at the SCO indicate a centralized and top-down command structure for strategic and diplomatic initiatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The RF MoD reporting Yars missile systems on combat patrol also reflects centralized strategic command. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The presidential decree awarding Guards status to the 218th Tank Regiment also indicates centralized command recognition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" photo message from strategic bomber confirms centralized strategic air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" special report video reinforces top-down morale efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Adaptive IO Response: RUF's rapid adaptation of IO narratives (e.g., discrediting US munitions, blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties, leveraging the Chinese journalist incident) and the prisoner exchange for propaganda, demonstrates effective, centrally coordinated information warfare. The pre-positioning of "LOUD" warnings for Kyiv and subsequent missile launches indicates coordinated IO ahead of kinetic strikes. RUF channels are celebrating the current missile strikes, reinforcing this coordinated approach. RUF IO claiming SBU targets Akhmat command staff is a further coordinated narrative. Alaudinov's comments on the Iran-Israel conflict, while tangential, show a coordinated effort to praise Trump and influence geopolitical perceptions. A new narrative discrediting UK intelligence is emerging, indicating continued development of IO lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports US Ambassador Tracy leaving Moscow, which may be framed by RUF as a diplomatic victory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS also uses the Ukrainian POW statement to further their IO, indicating a coordinated effort to undermine UAF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Операция Z" (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) posts a photo message implying internal RUF security concerns, showing Wahhabists threatening Russia and Putin. This indicates a coordinated IO effort to highlight internal threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" pre-announcing a major offensive on Zaporizhzhia is a new, coordinated IO tactic, likely to influence UAF deployments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports EU sanctions package failed due to Slovakia, which RUF will exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" tracking US force posture in Europe indicates a coordinated ISR and IO effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Басурин о главном posts cultural video, potentially part of soft power/normalization IO. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on Iranian AD, showing RUF interest in foreign military tech. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Dissent: Igor Strelkov's public criticism of Russian authorities' "indistinct movements" and "complete lack of strategy" indicates continued, albeit contained, internal dissent within the hardline pro-war community, which could signal weaknesses in top-level strategic direction or internal cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Discussions on "Unauthorized Abandonment of Unit" (AWOL) by RUF military bloggers also reveal internal challenges with discipline and potential morale issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a serviceman shot at police in Udmurtia, highlighting internal security incidents involving military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Increased Internal Security Measures: The intensified FSB activity, arrests for alleged espionage, and heightened rhetoric regarding "foreign agents" and "sleeper cells" suggest a proactive C2 response to perceived internal threats and a tightening grip on information within RF. New reports of anarchist disappearances and arrests for document forgery related to migrants underscore this. The detention and sentencing of an individual for displaying Nazi symbols also reflects efforts to control public discourse. The new image from "Полиция Хабаровского края" with multiple police car emojis indicates continued emphasis on internal law enforcement activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports that the Ministry of Culture of Transbaikalia obliged its employees to search for volunteers for the war against Ukraine, indicating direct state control and coordination over civilian institutions for mobilization efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on cyber scammers targeting businessmen via Zoom, indicating internal security concerns and responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). FSB detained a Crimean resident for collecting data on transport infrastructure and military units for SBU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the detained Crimean resident confessed to working for SBU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Response to Cross-Border Strikes: The immediate reporting and deployment of AD assets in response to UAV activity over Rostov and Volgograd and airport closures indicate a functional, albeit reactive, C2 system for homeland air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rostov Oblast interim governor confirms AD activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports 39 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF AV Bogomaz reports one UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Samara airport restrictions lifted also confirm adaptation. TASS reports Saratov airport restrictions have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports that 39 UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: RUF Internal Counter-Intelligence Operations: RUF "Операция Z" video showing the arrest and confession of an alleged "traitor" in Crimea gathering intelligence for SBU confirms RUF's active counter-intelligence efforts and their public display of these successes for internal audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Recruitment for "African Corps" by MoD: The direct recruitment for the "African Corps" by the Ministry of Defense, as advertised by "Два майора," indicates a centralized and coordinated effort to expand RUF's global military presence and/or reinforce personnel for ongoing conflicts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Northern Axis Defensive Success: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms the successful halting and stabilization of the ~50,000-strong RUF offensive on the Sumy axis. This demonstrates effective defensive planning, force allocation, and unit readiness to repel a major offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Active Defense in Donetsk: UAF forces are actively engaged in defending against RUF advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, inflicting high casualties on RUF "meat grinder" assaults, as evidenced by drone footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF is actively clearing trenches and conducting assaults with units like the 78th Separate Assault Regiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video shows coordinated ground assault by multiple individuals on motorcycles with drone support, suggesting adapted tactical operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows speedrun assault on a treeline, likely by UAF, demonstrating offensive tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Enhanced Air Defense: UAF continues to demonstrate effective multi-layered air defense capabilities, with 17 Shahed UAVs destroyed over Odesa, 7 UAVs by 1129th ZRP, and active AD responses in Kyiv Oblast and Mykolaiv. The development and testing of drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia indicate ongoing efforts to enhance AD. Reports of a UAV on the outskirts of Kyiv and multiple alerts, now with confirmed explosions in Kyiv and missile impact in Khmelnytskyi, indicate UAF AD is actively engaged. The nationwide air raid alert and reports of MiG-31K launches demonstrate UAF's immediate response and readiness to engage incoming threats. Latest reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanek confirm successful interception ("minus") of the current missile wave, and the number of remaining Shaheds has decreased to 2. UAF AD is currently active in Kyiv and Starokostiantyniv against new drone attacks, and against cruise missiles across central/southern Ukraine. Air raid alerts for Kyiv have been lifted. UAF AD continues to track enemy drones across Ukraine. New explosions in Khmelnytskyi despite previous "minus" reports highlight the ongoing challenge and complexity of AD operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 19 enemy UAVs were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight, further demonstrating AD effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade DSHV of the UAF demonstrates a Ukrainian-made "Safari" HG-105M semi-automatic shotgun with anti-drone capabilities, indicating adaptation to the UAV threat with domestic solutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Shahed being shot down by an interceptor drone, demonstrating a new AD capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports 365/371 air targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports 363 drones destroyed by UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged to shoot it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Indigenous Strike Capabilities: UAF continues to develop and employ indigenous long-range strike capabilities, demonstrated by successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in Zaporizhzhia and the confirmed GUR strike on the Bryansk fuel warehouse. The claimed "Peklo" missile-drone, if verified, would represent a significant new capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for strikes, LOW CONFIDENCE for "Peklo" weapon type). UAF is also testing its own KAB-analog precision bombs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). GUR's "Ghosts" unit successfully struck S-400 system components in Crimea, demonstrating highly effective long-range and precision strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of FAB strikes destroying two buildings with RUF occupants in Kondrativka, Kursk Oblast, indicating successful UAF cross-border aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Force Generation & Training: UAF is actively conducting training for new recruits (e.g., 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade in Kharkiv) and participating in "Operation Interflex" with numerous international partners, indicating robust efforts to generate and train forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues to emphasize drone warfare with a stated target of 200,000 FPV drones by end of June, indicating a strategic scaling of this capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Morale Boost from POW Exchange: The confirmed prisoner exchange and associated emotional reunions will provide a significant morale boost across UAF and the wider Ukrainian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Budanov's focus on returning young, ill, and seriously wounded POWs further highlights the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues to observe a minute of silence for fallen soldiers, reinforcing national remembrance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Challenges:
- Continued Civilian Casualties: RUF strikes continue to cause significant civilian casualties (e.g., 22 KIA in Dnipro, 3 KIA/13 WIA in Kherson, 3 KIA in Odesa lyceum, new fires/damage in Zaporizhzhia), placing strain on civilian services and morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New reports of fires and damage to non-residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia due to a night attack further indicate continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Photo evidence confirms damage to a garage cooperative in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New video from Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms widespread structural damage from recent attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 333 strikes on 14 settlements, which will impact morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Serhii Lysak reports continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU corroborates FPV drone attacks on Nikopol, Pokrovske, and Marhanets communities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports 4 people injured in Nikopol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA reports strikes on 2 settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA reports 79-year-old wounded in Huliaipole. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The increased death toll in Dnipro confirms continued civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message shows #russiaHITScivilians, reinforcing this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Corruption: Reports of charity fraud against UAF in Sumy Oblast highlight persistent internal corruption issues that can impact resource allocation and public trust. The high-profile NABU/SAP case against Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov will be a significant test of public trust and the government's commitment to fighting corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна posts multiple photo and video messages regarding Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov arriving at the High Anti-Corruption Court for a pre-trial hearing, confirming ongoing legal proceedings for a high-level corruption case. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO posts a video related to the Chernyshov case, confirming the public attention on this issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Ongoing Resource Needs: Appeals for aid for soldiers from military bloggers (STERNENKO appealing for "rusoriz") indicate continued resource requirements despite international support. Zelenskyy's statement on budget shortfalls for the army highlights this critical constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The EU agreement to provide 30.6 billion EUR in aid for 2025 is a critical positive development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ARHANHEL SPETSNAZ is appealing for donations for the Pokrovsk direction. RBK-Ukraina reports "Rubizh" brigade is collecting funds for property and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" is appealing for aid for soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState posts a photo message appealing for blood donations, indicating medical resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO mentions "good news" on countering Shaheds with "your help," implying continued reliance on public support for AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message appealing for support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Demining Operations: The extensive demining efforts in Kharkiv Oblast underscore the vast scale of unexploded ordnance, which continues to pose a significant hazard and restrict freedom of movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Persistent Air Threat: The continued high volume and sophistication of RUF air and missile strikes, including the recent Kinzhal launch and ongoing drone attacks, pose a continuous challenge to UAF AD systems and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New explosions in Khmelnytskyi despite earlier "minus" reports indicate persistent AD challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The sheer volume of 371 drones/missiles in a single overnight attack highlights the scale of the threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Immediate Ground Threat: The claimed RUF entry into Udachne represents an immediate and severe ground threat, potentially disrupting critical GLOCs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The announced imminent major RUF offensive in Zaporizhzhia poses a new immediate ground threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Naval Presence: UAF Naval Forces report on continued RUF naval presence in Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including missile carriers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- High Enemy Losses (Self-Reported): UAF General Staff and other Ukrainian sources report +970 liquidated Russian personnel in the last 24 hours. While positive for UAF morale, this figure represents a high rate of attrition that may indicate intense combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- POW Treatment/IO: The RUF TASS video of a Ukrainian POW claiming SBU may pressure families of captured soldiers is a clear RUF IO effort designed to undermine UAF morale and unit cohesion. This psychological operation presents a challenge for UAF counter-messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- SBU Counter-Intelligence: UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU detained another agent of RUF GRU in Donetsk region. This indicates ongoing counter-intelligence operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Soldier Distress from Radio Intercept: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video of intercepted RUF radio communications, showing a disheveled soldier expressing distress and lack of resources, indicates potential morale and sustainment issues at the tactical level for RUF. This is an intelligence gain for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Civilian Veteran Support: Ukrainian regional administrations (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv) are focusing on veteran support initiatives, which is a positive sign for post-conflict recovery but also indicates the growing number of veterans requiring support. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly military, but relates to long-term personnel sustainment).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Sumy Offensive Halted: UAF has successfully halted and stabilized the large-scale RUF offensive on the Sumy axis, fixing a significant RUF force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: Logistics Interdiction: Successful FPV drone strikes on RUF fuel trains in Zaporizhzhia and the GUR strike on the Bryansk fuel warehouse represent significant blows to RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: S-400 Strike: GUR's confirmed strike on S-400 AD system components in Crimea using drones demonstrates a critical capability against high-value RUF targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: High RUF Casualties in Donetsk: UAF drone footage confirms dozens of RUF casualties from "meat grinder" assaults near Pokrovsk, indicating effective UAF defensive fires and attritional success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff and other UAF sources confirm +970 liquidated Russian personnel in the last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports a "successfully demobilized" enemy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatyvnyi ZSU video shows the destruction of a vehicle and personnel using cluster munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: FPV Drone Kill of RUF MLRS: Successful UAF FPV drone strike destroying a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS demonstrates effective tactical targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS (PARTIAL): Missile and UAV Interception: Latest reports indicate successful interception ("minus") of the current missile wave, and a reduced number of remaining Shaheds. UAF AD has successfully intercepted some Kinzhals and other incoming missiles (e.g. Dnipro AD) in previous waves. However, impacts in Khmelnytskyi Oblast confirm some penetration. UAF AD is active against incoming Shahed UAVs. Air raid alerts for Kyiv lifted is a positive sign. Continued tracking of enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). However, new explosions in Khmelnytskyi suggest ongoing challenge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 19 enemy UAVs were shot down over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Shahed being shot down by an interceptor drone, demonstrating a new AD capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video shows UAF "fishing" for RUF drones, likely using net-equipped drones, to remove RUF ISR from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy reports 22 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern Operational Zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports 365/371 air targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 365 targets neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports 363 drones destroyed by UAF Air Force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Sumy Oblast and that assets are engaged to shoot it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: New Domestic Anti-Drone Weapon: The demonstration of the Ukrainian-made "Safari" HG-105M semi-automatic shotgun with anti-drone capabilities represents a successful adaptation and domestic production effort to address the persistent UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SUCCESS: EU Financial Aid for 2025 agreed: EU agreed to allocate 30.6 billion EUR to Ukraine in 2025, bypassing Hungary's veto, ensuring continued financial support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: RUF Territorial Gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia: RUF has confirmed the capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, and made advances north of Yablonivka, impacting UAF defensive lines and threatening critical GLOCs towards Udachne and Konstantinovka. RUF also claims to have liberated a significant lithium deposit in the area. Additionally, RUF is confirmed to be advancing in Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia. The new RUF claim of entering Udachne is a significant immediate setback, directly threatening UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF sources "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provide photo messages related to the Velikonovoselovske direction, indicating continued RUF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts a photo message with a tactical map and caption from Andryushchenko stating that RF is preparing a large-scale offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" tactical map for Kurakhovo - Alekseevka indicates active RUF operations in Donetsk oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Воин DV provides video of 'Heroes of Special Operation V' capturing Yalta, confirming this gain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports the T0406 highway is under RUF fire control, implying a major tactical success for RUF in disrupting UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: Mass Civilian Casualties: The ballistic missile strike on Dnipro resulting in 22 KIA and nearly 300 WIA underscores the continued, and potentially increasing, civilian cost of RUF's terror bombing campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SETBACK: Kyiv Oblast Under Massive Attack: The report that Kyiv Oblast was under "massive drone and missile attack overnight" indicates a significant RUF effort to target the capital region, potentially straining UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
NEW: Civilian Distress from Frontline Intercept: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video of intercepted RUF radio communications, where a soldier expresses distress, potentially indicates a setback in RUF tactical sustainment or morale in a specific sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Air Defense Munitions: The sheer volume of RUF air attacks (371 targets overnight) places immense strain on UAF air defense munition stockpiles. This remains a critical and urgent requirement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery Ammunition: Continued intense combat on the Donetsk axis, particularly given the "meat grinder" assaults, indicates a high consumption rate of artillery ammunition for defensive fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Drones and EW Systems: While UAF is expanding FPV drone production, the persistent RUF drone and loitering munition threats necessitate continuous supply of counter-drone EW systems and AD assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Medical Supplies and Evacuation: The high civilian casualty count in Dnipro and ongoing combat indicate continued high demand for medical supplies and rapid evacuation capabilities. Appeals for blood donations reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Anti-Corruption Efforts: The high-profile corruption cases (e.g., Vice Prime Minister Chernyshov, charity fraud in Sumy) indicate a constraint on efficient resource allocation and potential for undermining public trust and international support if not effectively managed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Financial Aid: President Zelenskyy's statements regarding budget shortfalls underscore the critical reliance on sustained international financial support. The EU's agreement to provide EUR 30.6 billion for 2025 is a positive development but needs to be consistently fulfilled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Personnel: High attrition on both sides in attritional battles like Pokrovsk means continued demand for force generation and training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Demining Resources: The vast scale of demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast highlights the long-term commitment and significant resources (personnel, equipment) required for this task. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Rehabilitation/Support for Veterans: The focus by regional administrations on veteran support indicates a growing requirement for these services as the conflict continues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives:
- Blaming UAF AD for Civilian Casualties: RUF (e.g., "Операция Z," "НгП раZVедка") consistently attempts to shift blame for civilian casualties in Kyiv onto UAF air defense operations and falling debris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Dehumanization and Justification: Continued use of derogatory terms ("Хохол"), swastika imagery, and claims of UAF "militants" in buffer zones aim to dehumanize the enemy and justify aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Pyrrhic Victories / UAF Weakness: RUF frames UAF's economic situation as collapse and highlights UAF equipment losses to suggest impending defeat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Strength and Self-Sufficiency: Promotion of domestic military production (Iskander, Shahed variants), and highlighting public fundraising efforts ("All for Victory") aims to project resilience and self-reliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Global Geopolitics and Anti-Westernism: RUF leverages diplomatic events (SCO), regional conflicts (Israel-Iran), and international political figures (Trump) to sow discord, amplify anti-Western narratives, and undermine international support for Ukraine. New narratives discrediting Western intelligence agencies are emerging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Security Threats: RUF continues to promote narratives of Ukrainian special services infiltrating Russia with "sleeper cells" and "terrorist supporters," often linking them to Central Asian migrants, to justify increased internal repression and foster xenophobia. The reported arrest of a "traitor" in Crimea and allegations of SBU targeting Akhmat command staff serve this purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Humanitarian Image: RUF attempts to project a humanitarian image through prisoner exchanges, though the focus is on their returning soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Military Successes: RUF military bloggers actively disseminate combat footage (e.g., capture of Yalta, drone strikes), tactical maps, and BDA to emphasize their advances and operational effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Recruitment Propaganda: RUF "Два майора" posts a video portraying a tank commander ("Poet"), likely for morale and recruitment, showing efforts to humanize and glorify military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Direct recruitment for the "African Corps" is also propaganda to show global reach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Narratives:
- Heroism and Resilience: Focus on successful AD operations, effective defense (Sumy), high RUF casualties, and the morale boost from POW exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Russian Atrocities: Highlighting civilian casualties from RUF missile strikes (e.g., Dnipro) and damage to civilian infrastructure to underscore Russian aggression and indiscriminate targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Accountability: Reporting on war crimes investigations and corruption cases demonstrates commitment to justice and transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- International Support and Training: Emphasizing joint military exercises ("Operation Interflex") and international financial aid (EU package) to demonstrate continued global solidarity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Innovation and Adaptation: Showcasing new domestic weapons (e.g., "Safari" anti-drone shotgun, KAB-analogs, "Peklo" missile-drones) and adaptive tactics (drone fishing) to convey self-sufficiency and technological edge. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Humanitarian Aspect: Focusing on the return of Ukrainian POWs, especially the young, ill, and wounded, to highlight the human cost of the war and the importance of humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Russian Internal Distress: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" highlighting unusual RUF radio communications and soldier distress provides a narrative of RUF weakness and disorganization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
- Resilience amidst Attacks: Despite continued mass casualty strikes (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv), civilian governance and support initiatives remain active, indicating continued societal resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Morale Boost from POW Exchange: The return of soldiers will significantly boost morale among military personnel and the civilian population, as evident from the emotional videos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Concern over Corruption: High-profile corruption cases may impact public trust in government and institutions if not handled transparently and decisively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Awareness of Threat: Air raid alerts and continuous reporting of drone/missile activity maintain a high level of public awareness regarding the persistent threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Community Support: Continued civilian initiatives (food kits, veteran support, community forums) demonstrate sustained public engagement and mutual aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Continued Civilian Appeal for Aid: "Оперативний ЗСУ" posted a photo message directly appealing for public support, indicating continued reliance on civilian goodwill and resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Public Sentiment:
- Controlled Narrative: State media (TASS) and official sources tightly control information, emphasizing RUF successes and downplaying setbacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Security Concerns: Heightened reporting of alleged "terrorist cells," "foreign agents," and internal security incidents (e.g., deserter shooting police, aid theft) aims to justify state control and potentially stoke fear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Economic Impact: Reports of bonus cuts suggest potential economic strain impacting civilian morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Public Fundraising: Continued public donations for military equipment suggest a segment of the population remains committed to the war effort, but also indicate ongoing resource shortfalls. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Discontent among Veterans: Reports of "SVO veterans" struggling with job rejections indicate potential future social issues and discontent within the returning military population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Militarization of Society: The introduction of "Homeland Security" classes in schools and attempts to coerce volunteers from civilian institutions indicate a systematic effort to normalize and entrench militarism within society, potentially shaping long-term public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Recruitment for "African Corps" and Domestic Propaganda: The active recruitment for the "African Corps" and the use of morale-boosting propaganda (tank commander "Poet" video) indicates continued efforts to manage manpower and public perception of military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Support for Ukraine:
- Military Aid: Continued provision of Western military equipment (M119 howitzer, Bradley IFV, etc.) remains critical. "Operation Interflex" demonstrates robust international military training cooperation (UK, US, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Financial Aid: EU's agreement to provide EUR 30.6 billion for Ukraine in 2025, bypassing Hungary, is a significant diplomatic success ensuring continued financial stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Political/Diplomatic: Creation of a Special Tribunal for aggression at PACE, and President Zelenskyy's meeting with Donald Trump, indicate continued efforts to build international consensus and secure future political support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Accession Talks: While Moldova's EU accession talks are set to open, Ukraine's first negotiation cluster is unlikely to open before Spring 2026, indicating continued challenges in the EU integration process. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Global Outreach: The report on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicates continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Support for Russia:
- Belarus Alliance: Putin's visit to Belarus signals continued strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance and economic integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Global South/BRICS Outreach: Serbia's interest in closer ties with BRICS, and Russia's nuclear energy agreement with Kazakhstan, indicate continued diplomatic efforts to build alliances and economic ties with non-Western nations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Anti-Western Messaging: Russia continues to amplify anti-Western narratives and exploit geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, NATO Summit discussions) to undermine Western unity and influence global opinion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- EU Divisions: The EU summit's failure to approve the 18th sanctions package against Russia due to internal divisions is a diplomatic success for Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- North Korean Military Support (Unconfirmed): The unconfirmed potential for North Korean troop deployment to Russia in July/August would represent a significant expansion of military support from a pariah state. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for deployment, HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF intent).
- Chinese Assistance: Reported Chinese assistance in Iskander missile production suggests continued, albeit opaque, strategic support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Reuters reports ships hiding flags in the Strait of Hormuz. RUF will likely exploit this narrative to portray global instability and divert international attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- NEW: Iranian Nuclear Program: Rybar's video featuring an Iranian leader speaking defiantly against the US regarding nuclear issues, amplified by RUF, suggests RUF's continued interest in and exploitation of anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustain Donetsk Offensive and Exploit Gains: RUF will likely double down on efforts to exploit the breakthrough near Novoserhiivka/Shevchenko, consolidating control over Udachne and the T0406 highway. They will continue attritional assaults toward Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, supported by heavy artillery and KAB strikes, aiming for a significant operational envelopment or to force a UAF withdrawal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Persistent Mass Air/Missile Strikes: RUF will continue large-scale, massed drone and missile attacks, particularly targeting critical military and civilian infrastructure (railways, airfields, industrial zones, energy facilities, population centers) across Ukraine, with an emphasis on Starokostiantyniv and the Kyiv region, leveraging newly upgraded Shahed-136 MS drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Maintain Northern Pressure: The ~50,000-strong RUF grouping on the Sumy axis will maintain a high threat posture, conducting probing attacks, cross-border engagements, and air operations (including VDV drone combat) to fix UAF forces and prevent their redeployment to the Donetsk front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Increased Hybrid Warfare and Internal Repression: RUF will intensify information operations, including blame-shifting for civilian casualties and narratives of internal sabotage, while continuing to tighten internal security measures (arrests, internet restrictions) to suppress dissent and control information flow within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global Force Generation: RUF will continue efforts to recruit and deploy personnel, including for the "African Corps," to sustain their overall force posture and global ambitions, while continuing to seek military support from partners like North Korea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Synchronized Multi-Axis Offensive with Escalated Deep Strikes: RUF launches a renewed,

Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS