Sitrep 2025-06-26 15:35:13

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF MoD officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko. RUF source "Воин DV" provides video of RUF stormtroopers claiming liberation of Shevchenko. RUF source "Басурин о главном" provides video confirming liberation of Yalta (DNR) by "Vostok" Group. UAF General Staff reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction, confirming active combat in these claimed areas. UAF drone footage shows dozens of RUF casualties from a "meat grinder" assault near Pokrovsk. RUF FPV drone strikes claimed destruction of an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms RUF control of Novoserhiivka in the Pokrovsk area, stating its proximity to the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. DeepState confirms map updates for this area. RUF "Операция Z" provides aerial drone footage confirming combat operations and destruction in SHEVCHENKO (DNR), displaying Russian flags on captured structures and damaged civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video depicts 152-mm Msta-B howitzers of the 90th Guards Tank Division destroying an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk axis). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports RUF forces used "Geranium-2" (Shahed) to strike a temporary UAF deployment point near Novoekonomicheskoe in DNR, providing aerial video showing significant damage to a building complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the Ivan Franko Group, targeting its fuel tank and rocket guides. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This corroborates RUF claims on Shevchenko and indicates continued RUF pressure across multiple axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) provides video details of RUF storming of Yalta in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area, indicating active RUF special operations targeting UAF transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts first-person video of RUF storming an enemy strongpoint, with Russian dialogue, indicating active close-quarters combat on the frontline (unspecified location, likely Donetsk/Luhansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides video footage of FAB strikes by the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army on UAF strongholds of the 2nd Battalion, 141st Mechanized Brigade, confirming continued heavy aerial bombardment in support of ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" photo message provides a tactical map for the Konstantinovka - Yablonovka area, indicating active RUF planning/operations there. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" provides FPV drone video from Pokrovsk area, showing an UAF pickup truck detected and struck, indicating continued RUF FPV operations on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area. RUF claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone strike on a vehicle crossing and pumping station over the Aidar River in Luhansk are being used by RUF sources to confirm a new Ukrainian weapon system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for visual confirmation of "Peklo" use). Mash on Donbas provides video of a hurricane in Luhansk, indicating severe weather impacting the region and potentially military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports at least 15 Ukrainian UAVs attacked the administration of Troitske district in Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), with one person wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Mash на Донбассе" reports that over 15 Ukrainian UAVs struck the administration of Troitske district in LPR, confirming UAF long-range drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 22 dead (latest update) and nearly 300 wounded. TASS reports RUF "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetropsk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms state initiatives for financial aid to families who lost relatives due to Russian attacks, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms the "Safe Community" forum, bringing together national, regional, and local authorities, including emergency services and police, indicating continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" photo message reports multiple FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district (Nikopol, Pokrovske, Chervonohryhorivka, Myrivka communities), indicating persistent RUF pressure and ongoing civilian targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped this week, and the contact line is stabilized, re-engaging 50,000 Russian troops. The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 14 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure. RUF source "AV БогомаZ" claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA corroborates this claim. RUF source "Два майора" provides video of an aerial reconnaissance footage in the Sumy direction, showing explosions along a tree line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" reports an attack by enemy (UAF) on a gas station in Volokonovsky district, Belgorod Oblast, showing fire and smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from "Ukrainian militants," showing drone reconnaissance, artillery impacts, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Сливочный каприз" (RUF) posts a map labeled "Sumy - Alekseevka" with colored zones and troop markers, indicating active RUF planning/operations in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast (18km from border), indicating continued UAF cross-border strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast, indicating RUF intent to solidify border control and counter UAF incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes a photo message claiming to show the Kharkiv direction with overlaid polygons and arrows, likely indicating troop movements or control zones. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum, emphasizing continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian infantry of the 58th Motorized Brigade undergoing training on identifying and understanding various anti-tank mines (TM-46, TM-57, TM-62M, TMD-B). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA reports on the "Officer-Rescuer of the Community" project, focusing on strengthening security in border and frontline settlements, highlighting continued efforts to enhance civilian safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo of the Krasnolymansk direction, showing a fortified position with dragon's teeth and likely a military vehicle, suggesting defensive preparations or static positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RUF soldiers attempting to shoot down FPV drones. Claims four fuel tankers and a vehicle with two RUF sergeants were destroyed. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration marked Day of Crimean Tatar Flag, signalling continued support for de-occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation in the region to counter enemy UAVs, indicating enhanced AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA posts a photo message to entrepreneurs in the region, likely a civilian initiative (not directly military). (LOW CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ASTRA" video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with movement halted on the affected section. This indicates continued successful UAF interdiction of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OMA releases postage stamps commemorating "Melitopol is Ukraine!", indicating continued symbolic resistance and assertion of sovereignty over occupied territories. (LOW CONFIDENCE - purely symbolic).
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports successful Lancet strike on UAF boat in Dnipro River from Orlan-10 reconnaissance.
Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. Former Odesa Mayor Ruslan Bodelan died. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news, but potential for local political impact). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an explosion and fire in Odessa during a night attack, claiming it "killed a flower bed." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations and falling debris from shot-down missiles. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shares video of a person walking in an urban courtyard in Kyiv, with a timestamp of June 21, 2025, suggesting continued RUF surveillance or information gathering on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" pushes a survey result claiming 72.3% of Ukrainians believe the war should end along the current front line, indicating continued RUF IO targeting Ukrainian public opinion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports SBU has sentenced a "Rashist" (Russian) in absentia to life imprisonment for shooting a civilian during the occupation of Kyiv Oblast, highlighting ongoing accountability efforts for war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts video of an event related to a Russian missile strike on Solomianskyi district on June 17, with school children providing aid, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
- Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
- Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora.
- Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. UAF General Staff reports "operative information" as of 16:00 26.06.2025, providing a general update on the Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. Internal security concerns noted with arrests of alleged foreign agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg. New reports confirm the photographer sentenced to 16 years for state treason for transferring a publicly available book on bunkers. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports a repair facility for Ukrainian military equipment in Erfurt, Germany, potentially damaged by fire. "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany, explicitly stating it's a Bundeswehr parking lot that was burned. This corroborates the RUF claim of targeting military equipment in Germany. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Fighterbomber" shows photo of "mysterious signs drawn by Air Force pilots in Belgorod Oblast," possibly related to operational markings or morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE - ambiguous imagery). TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - potential disruption to rail transport/logistics in RF). TASS and "Два майора" report law enforcement in Leningrad Oblast interrupted a "ritual" where participants buried two women alive, reflecting unusual internal security incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - highlights internal social/security issues, not directly military). "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for a new subject, "Fundamentals of Homeland Security," including grenade and Makarov pistol models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates a militarization of education/society). "Новости Москвы" reports children in Moscow Oblast are prohibited from being near bodies of water without adult supervision, indicating increased public safety measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects broader societal security concerns). TASS reports an investigation and arrest warrant request for a man who threw a child on the floor at Sheremetyevo airport, indicating public safety/law enforcement activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects domestic security issues). RUF "Colonelcassad" reports an FPV drone strike by GrV "Zapad" on five militants and a pickup truck near Bohuslavka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a fake report of military action involving Pacific Fleet exercises in Kamchatka attacking a fisherman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, countering negative narratives). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an individual arrested in Novorossiysk, confessing to providing information to Ukrainian sources on Ukrainian military object locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD releases drone footage depicting "powerful air strikes" by Russian Aerospace Forces using FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs on temporary deployment areas of enemy aircraft, showing multiple explosions in a village/settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," and that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin will meet with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve have been filed in Russian courts since the start of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a man who threw a child at Sheremetyevo Airport pleaded guilty, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes unrelated to military operations but reflecting social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo of an aircraft on an airfield with a caption about "Animal and plant world of airfields," indicating a focus on mundane aspects of airbase life. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a photo message of a Russian Presidential Decree, indicating formal state actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin prolonged the right to draft deferment for Old Believers until 2030, a social/religious policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk, possibly indicating increased military casualties being buried. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control, possibly related to internal security operations or counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding measures in response to "Berlin's arbitrary actions against Russian journalists," indicating a diplomatic escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" posts about Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, likely indicating RUF interest or activity in the area (LOW CONFIDENCE - no specific details given). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk for allegedly transmitting information on Russian ship locations, further corroborating RUF counter-intelligence activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an ongoing prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine under Istanbul agreements, with the RF MoD confirming the return of Russian servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Военкор Котенок" also confirms the prisoner exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" confirms a new prisoner exchange via Belarus, without specifying numbers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a court placed the former head of Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management) in Udmurtia under arrest for two months on bribery charges, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts video of a Russian deputy stating men go to war due to poverty, indicating a potential social/economic motivation for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The Washington Post stated Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse despite Western aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a presentation on the GBU-57 bunker buster, confirming continued RUF interest in Western advanced munitions and showcasing their own IO attempts to downplay Western capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a video from a NATO Summit showing a handshake between Erdoğan and Macron, indicating RUF tracking of high-level Western diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a court nationalized an oil company belonging to a Dagestan state secretary, further indicating RF internal anti-corruption measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells and support bases in Russia for sabotage and terrorist attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns photo message discusses a poll result stating a high percentage of labor migrants in Russia prefer Sharia law over secular law and are willing to protest for religious norms, implying internal security concerns within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts a video of Gorky Park, showing civilian life, which can be interpreted as normalcy propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine, indicating RUF's continued focus on information warfare and justification for its actions through historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, providing an official RUF diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin has arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit, signaling continued strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel (likely a Russian regional official) reports Nizhny Novgorod has become the "Youth Capital of the Union State" (Russia-Belarus), further emphasizing political and cultural integration between the two states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video reports on local theft of food donations for SVO participants by "local gypsies" in Podmoskovye, highlighting domestic social issues potentially impacting public support for the war effort and an attempt to control narratives around public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video commemorating the 10-year anniversary of Yevgeny Primakov's death, highlighting Russian political figures and history. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly military). RUF "Два майора" celebrates their channel's 3-year anniversary, indicating sustained RUF information operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reports on a Duma speech claiming positive attitudes towards migrants in Russia, indicating an attempt to manage public perception of integration issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front, with initial evidence of use. This suggests a new indigenous long-range strike capability. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim, needs independent verification). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF РБК-Україна provide video messages confirming returning Ukrainian soldiers, reinforcing the prisoner exchange event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provides video of the prisoner exchange, with emotional accounts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports EU will open accession talks with Moldova on July 4, but not Ukraine, indicating EU internal dynamics impacting Ukraine's diplomatic progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, waving Russian flags, confirming the reciprocal nature of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing joint military training with UK, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, indicating continued and robust international training support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, focusing on soldiers under 25, severely ill, and seriously wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests, indicating a focus on domestic industrial development, not directly military but reflects RF industrial capacity. (LOW CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Recent heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, affecting air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
The confirmed fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Transbaikalia due to natural fires implies dry conditions and fire hazards in some parts of RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
A reported fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, could release hazardous materials, impacting the local environment if proximate to logistical routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video from Odessa (night attack) shows significant fire, implying dry conditions or effective incendiary targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kharkiv Oblast Governor's report of demining operations underscores the continued environmental hazard posed by unexploded ordnance and mines across the front lines and liberated territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Mash on Donbas video of a hurricane in Luhansk indicates significant localized severe weather impacting the eastern front, potentially hindering military operations and civilian movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations, notably on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, which is now independently corroborated by UAF sources for Novoserhiivka and visually confirmed for Shevchenko by RUF footage ("Операция Z" and "Colonelcassad"). This represents a significant advance and potential threat to UAF forces in Udachne and towards Konstantinovka. RUF continues to consolidate gains in areas like Yalta and Dyleyevka, and the claimed Komar. UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks. UAF drone footage near Pokrovsk confirms high RUF casualties from "meat grinder" assaults, indicating continued attritional tactics by RUF and effective UAF defensive fires. RUF source "ТАСС" states "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF artillery and drone strikes on UAF positions and temporary deployment points (e.g., Novoekonomicheskoe) continue. RUF video from "Два майора" shows the evacuation of wounded from the Line of Contact (LBS), confirming active combat and ongoing casualties, likely in this area given other reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video confirms successful FPV drone strike against RUF "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes targeting northern Donetsk, indicating continued RUF air support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" releases video of 78th Separate Assault Regiment conducting trench assaults and clearing operations, indicating active UAF offensive/counter-offensive actions on specific sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides video of special forces from the 14th Guards Brigade and 30th Separate Company destroying UAF vehicles in the Karl Marx (Mirne) area, indicating active RUF special operations targeting UAF transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video of first-person assault on an enemy strongpoint indicates active RUF infantry operations in fortified areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued air support for ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" reports "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation," confirming continued RUF focus on this critical axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests active RUF planning/operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk, indicating continued tactical drone use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating RUF pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState map updates confirm RUF advances near Shevchenko, Burlatsky, and Vilne Pole. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction. Claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone use against a crossing point and pumping station on the Aidar River, if confirmed, indicate UAF long-range strike capabilities against RUF infrastructure. (LOW CONFIDENCE on weapon type, HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting of strike). TASS reports UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration, indicating UAF long-range drone capabilities against RUF-occupied civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Mash на Донбассе" reports over 15 Ukrainian UAVs struck the administration of Troitske district in LPR, confirming UAF long-range drone activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of RUF troops in Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped, and the contact line is stabilized, effectively re-engaging the reported 50,000 RUF personnel. This is a critical UAF success in mitigating the northern threat. UAF General Staff reports continued intense defensive work in the North Slobozhansky direction. RUF continues probing attacks, KAB strikes, and reconnaissance UAV activity. RUF sources "ASTRA" and "AV БогомаZ" confirm RUF AD activity against Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. RUF video from "Два майора" indicates active ground combat/reconnaissance in Sumy direction. Kharkiv Governor's participation in security forums underscores continued civilian governance despite proximate threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video indicates ongoing mine awareness training for infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" drone footage of "Anvar" detachment operations in Sumy/Chernihiv buffer zones suggests continued RUF efforts to secure border areas and eliminate perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports successful demining operations, indicating UAF efforts to secure civilian areas and potential future operational zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued RUF aerial pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA's report on "Officer-Rescuer of the Community" project indicates a proactive approach to security in frontline communities, demonstrating UAF and civilian authority coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast, confirming continued RUF aerial pressure on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo on Krasnolymansk direction suggests active defensive deployments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast, indicating continued UAF cross-border strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast, indicating RUF intent to solidify border control and counter UAF incursions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes and bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels. UAF demonstrated successful interdiction of RUF fuel trains in occupied territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zaporizhzhia OMA announces the deployment of new drone interceptor systems, indicating an adaptive UAF AD posture to counter RUF UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA posts a photo message to entrepreneurs, not directly military but reflects continued regional governance. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ASTRA" video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with movement halted, indicating continued effective UAF interdiction of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OMA video of returning POWs confirms robust civilian-military support for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 2 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and has disconnected mobile internet in occupied areas. RUF continues ISR and strike missions with Orlan-10 and Lancet drones.
Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. Former Odesa Mayor Ruslan Bodelan died. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news, but potential for local political impact). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an explosion and fire in Odessa, confirming continued long-range strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations and falling debris from shot-down missiles. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shared Kyiv urban footage suggests continued RUF ISR or information gathering on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" claiming high percentage of Ukrainians want peace on current front lines is an IO effort to influence public opinion and decision-making. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports SBU has sentenced a "Rashist" (Russian) in absentia to life imprisonment for shooting a civilian during the occupation of Kyiv Oblast, highlighting ongoing accountability efforts for war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts video of an event related to a Russian missile strike on Solomianskyi district on June 17, with school children providing aid, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
- Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
- Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora.
- Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. UAF General Staff reports "operative information" as of 16:00 26.06.2025, providing a general update on the Russian invasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. Internal security concerns noted with arrests of alleged foreign agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg. New reports confirm the photographer sentenced to 16 years for state treason for transferring a publicly available book on bunkers. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports a repair facility for Ukrainian military equipment in Erfurt, Germany, potentially damaged by fire. "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany, explicitly stating it's a Bundeswehr parking lot that was burned. This corroborates the RUF claim of targeting military equipment in Germany. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Fighterbomber" shows photo of "mysterious signs drawn by Air Force pilots in Belgorod Oblast," possibly related to operational markings or morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE - ambiguous imagery). TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - potential disruption to rail transport/logistics in RF). TASS and "Два майора" report law enforcement in Leningrad Oblast interrupted a "ritual" where participants buried two women alive, reflecting unusual internal security incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - highlights internal social/security issues, not directly military). "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for a new subject, "Fundamentals of Homeland Security," including grenade and Makarov pistol models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates a militarization of education/society). "Новости Москвы" reports children in Moscow Oblast are prohibited from being near bodies of water without adult supervision, indicating increased public safety measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects broader societal security concerns). TASS reports an investigation and arrest warrant request for a man who threw a child on the floor at Sheremetyevo airport, indicating public safety/law enforcement activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects domestic security issues). RUF "Colonelcassad" reports an FPV drone strike by GrV "Zapad" on five militants and a pickup truck near Bohuslavka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a fake report of military action involving Pacific Fleet exercises in Kamchatka attacking a fisherman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, countering negative narratives). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an individual arrested in Novorossiysk, confessing to providing information to Ukrainian sources on Ukrainian military object locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD releases drone footage depicting "powerful air strikes" by Russian Aerospace Forces using FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs on temporary deployment areas of enemy aircraft, showing multiple explosions in a village/settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," and that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin will meet with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve have been filed in Russian courts since the start of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a man who threw a child at Sheremetyevo Airport pleaded guilty, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes unrelated to military operations but reflecting social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo of an aircraft on an airfield with a caption about "Animal and plant world of airfields," indicating a focus on mundane aspects of airbase life. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a photo message of a Russian Presidential Decree, indicating formal state actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin prolonged the right to draft deferment for Old Believers until 2030, a social/religious policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk, possibly indicating increased military casualties being buried. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control, possibly related to internal security operations or counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding measures in response to "Berlin's arbitrary actions against Russian journalists," indicating a diplomatic escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" posts about Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, likely indicating RUF interest or activity in the area (LOW CONFIDENCE - no specific details given). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk for allegedly transmitting information on Russian ship locations, further corroborating RUF counter-intelligence activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports an ongoing prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine under Istanbul agreements, with the RF MoD confirming the return of Russian servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Военкор Котенок" also confirms the prisoner exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" confirms a new prisoner exchange via Belarus, without specifying numbers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports a court placed the former head of Rosimushchestvo (Federal Agency for State Property Management) in Udmurtia under arrest for two months on bribery charges, indicating continued anti-corruption efforts within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts video of a Russian deputy stating men go to war due to poverty, indicating a potential social/economic motivation for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports The Washington Post stated Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse despite Western aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a presentation on the GBU-57 bunker buster, confirming continued RUF interest in Western advanced munitions and showcasing their own IO attempts to downplay Western capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a video from a NATO Summit showing a handshake between Erdoğan and Macron, indicating RUF tracking of high-level Western diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a court nationalized an oil company belonging to a Dagestan state secretary, further indicating RF internal anti-corruption measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells and support bases in Russia for sabotage and terrorist attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns photo message discusses a poll result stating a high percentage of labor migrants in Russia prefer Sharia law over secular law and are willing to protest for religious norms, implying internal security concerns within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts a video of Gorky Park, showing civilian life, which can be interpreted as normalcy propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine, indicating RUF's continued focus on information warfare and justification for its actions through historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, providing an official RUF diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin has arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit, signaling continued strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel (likely a Russian regional official) reports Nizhny Novgorod has become the "Youth Capital of the Union State" (Russia-Belarus), further emphasizing political and cultural integration between the two states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Alex Parker Returns video reports on local theft of food donations for SVO participants by "local gypsies" in Podmoskovye, highlighting domestic social issues potentially impacting public support for the war effort and an attempt to control narratives around public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video commemorating the 10-year anniversary of Yevgeny Primakov's death, highlighting Russian political figures and history. (LOW CONFIDENCE - not directly military). RUF "Два майора" celebrates their channel's 3-year anniversary, indicating sustained RUF information operations. (LOW CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reports on a Duma speech claiming positive attitudes towards migrants in Russia, indicating an attempt to manage public perception of integration issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front, with initial evidence of use. This suggests a new indigenous long-range strike capability. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim, needs independent verification). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF РБК-Україна provide video messages confirming returning Ukrainian soldiers, reinforcing the prisoner exchange event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provides video of the prisoner exchange, with emotional accounts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports EU will open accession talks with Moldova on July 4, but not Ukraine, highlighting a potential divergence in EU accession paths. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, waving Russian flags, confirming the reciprocal nature of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing joint military training with UK, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, indicating continued and robust international training support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, focusing on soldiers under 25, severely ill, and seriously wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests, indicating a focus on domestic industrial development, not directly military but reflects RF industrial capacity. (LOW CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Recent Intelligence Updates

CONFIRMED PRISONER EXCHANGE: Multiple Ukrainian and Russian sources, including UAF regional administrations (Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk), UAF General Staff, RUF TASS, "Военкор Котенок", "Colonelcassad", and "Операция Z", confirm an ongoing prisoner exchange. UAF sources highlight the return of servicemen from the Armed Forces, National Guard, and State Border Guard Service, with many having been in captivity since 2022. RUF sources confirm the return of Russian servicemen. This exchange is stated to be a "continuation of the large exchange in accordance with the Istanbul agreements." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The specific numbers exchanged are not yet publicly detailed by either side. New visuals from RUF "Басурин о главном" and "WarGonzo" reinforce the return of Russian servicemen. UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF "РБК-Україна" provide new emotional videos of returning Ukrainian servicemen, with direct quotes and visible relief. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provides emotional video of the exchange from UAF perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, waving Russian flags, confirming the reciprocal nature of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, focusing on soldiers under 25, severely ill, and seriously wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Internal Security Focus: TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells and support bases in Russia for sabotage and terrorist attacks. This follows earlier reports of arrests in Novorossiysk and Moscow, suggesting a heightened and publicized counter-terrorism focus within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns echoes this with a photo message discussing a survey on labor migrants' preference for Sharia law in Russia, implying internal security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a court nationalized an oil company belonging to a Dagestan state secretary, indicating ongoing anti-corruption efforts within RF, potentially also for political control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video report on theft of aid for SVO participants by ethnic minorities in Podmoskovye further reinforces RUF's focus on internal security and order, potentially with ethnic overtones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reporting on positive public attitudes towards migrants indicates a counter-narrative attempt. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF IO Adapting to US Military Demonstrations: Alex Parker Returns posts a video from the Pentagon demonstrating the GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, framed with skepticism regarding its effectiveness and drawing comparisons to Russian military developments, indicating an ongoing RUF IO effort to discredit Western military technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Shared Narrative on Ukraine's Economy: Both RUF and UAF sources are now citing The Washington Post on Ukraine's economic challenges, albeit for different strategic ends. This could indicate a shared baseline for economic discussion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Deepening Russia-Serbia Ties Highlighted: TASS emphasizing Serbian PM's statements on Western attempts to destabilize Serbia underscores RUF's efforts to project influence in the Balkans and create narrative friction within Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF New Indigenous Weapon System Claim: UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front, with initial evidence of use. This claim, if verified, represents a significant development in UAF's indigenous long-range strike capabilities. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim, needs independent verification).
Deepening Russia-Belarus Strategic Alignment: TASS reports Putin's arrival in Belarus for a two-day visit. "Глеб Никитин" channel reports Nizhny Novgorod has become the "Youth Capital of the Union State" (Russia-Belarus). These developments signify a deepening political, military, and cultural alignment between Russia and Belarus, potentially enabling closer logistical and operational cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video shows Lukashenko personally greeting Putin at the Eurasian Economic Forum, reinforcing the high-level nature of this visit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Force Generation Focus: UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" launches a significant fundraising effort to expand the 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems, indicating a continued and growing emphasis on drone warfare and force generation for this critical capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Focus on Air Assault Capabilities: UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" (Air Assault Forces) posts photos showcasing their personnel, emphasizing their ability to "strike from the heavens" and projecting an image of elite combat effectiveness and threat to the enemy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Focus on FPV Drone Scale: UAF "STERNENKO" reports a target of 200,000 FPV drones by the end of June, indicating a massive scaling effort for tactical drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
EU Accession Talks with Moldova: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the EU will open accession talks with Moldova on July 4, while for Ukraine, this will not happen. This highlights a differential pace in EU integration for Ukraine, possibly indicating Western caution or internal EU political dynamics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Continued International Training Support for UAF: New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing joint military training with UK, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, indicating continued and robust international training support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF IO for International Support: New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RUF Strategic Industry Development: New RUF TASS video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests, indicating a focus on domestic industrial development, not directly military but reflects RF industrial capacity. (LOW CONFIDENCE).

1.5. Key Changes from Previous Reports

Prisoner Exchange Confirmed and Underway with new visuals/testimonials: Previously anticipated, the exchange is now confirmed by both Ukrainian and Russian official and unofficial sources, with multiple new visuals of returning personnel and emotional testimonies from UAF President Zelenskiy, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺. This is a significant humanitarian and diplomatic development, now well-documented by both sides. Budanov's statements on exchange terms confirm focus on young, ill, and wounded POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RUF Internal Security Focus Shift: Increased and highly publicized focus on "foreign agents" and "terrorist cells" within RF, specifically linking them to Ukrainian special services and Central Asian migrants. This indicates a heightened domestic counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism campaign by the FSB, likely aimed at justifying internal crackdowns and reinforcing the narrative of an external threat. New reports on aid theft by ethnic minorities add another dimension to this internal security narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RUF IO Adapting to US Military Demonstrations: RUF is actively attempting to discredit advanced US munitions (e.g., GBU-57 bunker buster) by framing their demonstrations as unconvincing, indicating a reactive and adaptive IO posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Shared Narrative on Ukraine's Economy: Both RUF and UAF sources are now citing The Washington Post on Ukraine's economic challenges, albeit for different strategic ends. This could indicate a shared baseline for economic discussion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Deepening Russia-Serbia Ties Highlighted: TASS emphasizing Serbian PM's statements on Western attempts to destabilize Serbia underscores RUF's efforts to project influence in the Balkans and create narrative friction within Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF Claims New Indigenous Long-Range Weapon: The claim of "Peklo" missile-drones on the front, if verified, represents a new tactical and operational capability for Ukraine, potentially shifting the dynamic of long-range strikes. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim).
Increased Russia-Belarus Integration: Putin's visit to Belarus and the "Youth Capital of the Union State" initiative signal a deepening and public strengthening of the Russia-Belarus alliance, impacting regional power dynamics. Lukashenko's personal greeting of Putin reinforces the high-level nature of this strategic alignment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Prioritizing FPV Drone Expansion: A clear and ambitious target for FPV drone production (200,000 by end of June) indicates a strategic shift towards mass deployment of these tactical assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
EU Accession Talks for Moldova but Not Ukraine: New information on EU opening accession talks with Moldova on July 4, but not Ukraine, indicates a potential diplomatic setback or differing European strategy regarding Ukraine's path to EU membership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Continued International Training Support for UAF: "Operation Interflex" video highlights ongoing, diverse international training support, reinforcing UAF's capability building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New RUF Tactical Map in Donetsk: "Сливочный каприз" provides a tactical map for Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, indicating detailed RUF operational planning in this key area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Increased RUF Pressure on Dnipropetrovsk Border: New reports of FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) from "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" indicate an escalation of RUF pressure on the regional administrative border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:
- Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 50,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, despite UAF reports these advances have been halted. Demonstrated sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including confirmed capture of Yalta and Dyleyevka, and newly confirmed capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko (confirmed by UAF and RUF visuals/claims). This reinforces control and potential deep thrusts. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF continues sustained assault on Chasiv Yar, claiming control of main part of the city. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF Airborne Forces are reportedly striking UAF rear areas in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) corroborates high RUF losses from FPV drones during assault tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides visual confirmation of RUF stormtroopers during operations in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Басурин о главном" provides visual confirmation of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS in action near Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a potential new axis of advance following gains in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF video from "Два майора" (Sumy direction) indicates continued reconnaissance/fire missions on that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF photo from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (Kharkiv direction) suggests ongoing operational planning/activity. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video confirms active combat and Russian control in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video confirms 152-mm Msta-B howitzer operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video shows evacuation from LBS, confirming ongoing ground combat and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" reference to "expansion of the bridgehead" indicates continued ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows an FPV drone strike on UAF personnel and a pickup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" drone footage of "Anvar" detachment clearing buffer zones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts confirms active ground operations to secure border areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" drone footage of 39th Motor Rifle Brigade operations shows active targeting and impacts in wooded areas, confirming continued small-unit tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), corroborating RUF ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of RUF FPV drone strikes, demonstrating continued tactical drone integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video on storming Yalta indicates continued focus on rapid ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of special forces destroying UAF vehicles near Karl Marx (Mirne) highlights effective small-unit targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" first-person video of strongpoint assault confirms continued offensive infantry tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment by ground support aircraft, indicating combined arms approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" reporting on "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation" indicates continued operational focus and ground activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests active RUF planning/operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk, indicating continued RUF FPV operations on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating RUF intent to pressure the Dnipropetrovsk border directly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers. Production of Iskander missiles reportedly increased with Chinese assistance. Continued delivery of new Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft enhances tactical aviation. RUF is deploying "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations and new "Molniya" loitering munitions. They demonstrate effective counter-UAV capabilities, claiming 50 UAVs destroyed, including 6 over Bryansk Oblast. RUF Aerospace Forces continue large-scale aerial bombardments with FAB-1500s. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" and "РБК-Україна" shows an RUF Shahed being destroyed by an air-to-air missile, confirming RUF's continued reliance on Shahed drones and UAF's effective air-to-air countermeasures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows effective reconnaissance (Orlan-10) and strike (Lancet) against UAF boat on Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025" indicating persistent, widespread RUF aerial activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS video confirms Shahed strike on UAF temporary deployment point in Novoekonomicheskoe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows a strike and fire in Odessa, confirming continued long-range strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video depicting FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" confirms continued extensive use of heavy guided aerial bombs for area denial and destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating continued close air support for ground advances and degradation of UAF rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration, confirming UAF long-range drone capabilities against RUF-occupied civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment, indicating a well-integrated air-ground strike coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus. Actively exploits geopolitical events (NATO summit, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) to sow discord and discredit Western support for Ukraine. Persistent dehumanization of Ukrainians ("Ukrainian Nazis"). Strong focus on internal security narratives to justify repression and control information (Starlink ban, internet outages, arrests of alleged foreign agents/saboteurs, expanded counter-terrorism investigations, new arrest in Novorossiysk, thwarted terrorist attack in Podmoskovye). Continues to project strength and self-sufficiency. RUF Defense Minister Belousov leverages SCO platform to emphasize global instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Военкор Котенок" highlighting "Dragon's Teeth" mismanagement aims to portray UAF incompetence and boost RUF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Воин DV" attempts to use UAF footage to accuse UAF of war crimes (burning civilian homes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). "Alex Parker Returns" attempts to use AI-generated deepfakes and misleading narratives to discredit UAF Air Defense by claiming UAF admitted to AD striking civilian building in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports on expansion of RF-China special services cooperation, signaling deepening strategic ties and potential for shared hybrid capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Два майора" posts human interest story about a cat at a PVD to elicit sympathy for RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF source "WarGonzo" promoting "Donbas. Terek Brigade" film enhances patriotic narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF source "Новости Москвы" reporting alcohol restrictions suggests ongoing social engineering/control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" video features wounded civilian narrative, intended to elicit sympathy for victims of conflict, likely to shift blame or humanize suffering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Басурин о главном" video confirming FSB detentions reinforces internal security/counter-intelligence narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports Lavrov's statement on NATO defense spending, minimizing its impact on RF security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO for external audience). "Север.Реалии" report on "Homeland Security" classes in St. Petersburg indicates a systematic militarization of education for long-term ideological control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) heavily pushes narrative that UAF AD is responsible for civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Colonelcassad" publishes a "fake news" disclaimer regarding military actions in Kamchatka, indicating attempts to control information and counter negative narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Рыбарь" discusses "future terrorist attacks in Syria," possibly for internal security consumption or to justify RUF presence/actions abroad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Serbian PM's pledge not to send arms to Ukraine, leveraging diplomatic ties for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," downplaying Ukraine's significance relative to regional instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Peskov stated that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia, indicating a rejection of Western deterrence concepts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns continues to amplify derogatory language against Zelenskyy and spread anti-NATO/anti-Western narratives, demonstrating persistent RUF IO aimed at undermining Ukrainian leadership and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian desire for peace on current front lines is a clear IO effort to influence Ukrainian political will. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" pushing a narrative of NATO turning Finland into "a new Ukraine," aiming to fuel anti-NATO sentiment and justify RUF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns uses AI-generated content (deepfakes) to depict "liquidation" of Israeli leaders, demonstrating sophisticated and aggressive IO tactics to influence perceptions of regional conflict and distract. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a message defending "stormtroopers" from being considered "meat," indicating a response to internal concerns about attritional tactics and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" publishes videos suggesting internal security operations, which serve to project control and deter dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video of Medvedev claiming 800 war participants will represent "United Russia" in elections, highlighting the integration of military personnel into political life. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the German Ambassador to Russia will be summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding measures in response to "Berlin's arbitrary actions against Russian journalists," indicating a diplomatic escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" posts a humorous video with superimposed flags of USA, Israel, and Iran, indicating RUF's use of satire/memes for IO, possibly to minimize or mock international tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" releasing "Base - 48th issue" indicates consistent, organized information dissemination efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video "За базаром следят" of military/security personnel escorting civilians is likely an IO piece demonstrating state control and internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" video on Zakharchenko reinforces a propaganda narrative for deceased pro-Russian leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" video recounting personal experiences related to conflict serves to humanize RUF efforts and potentially garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reporting on Ukraine's economy from The Washington Post frames it as a sign of weakness, serving RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video appears to show a presentation on the GBU-57 bunker buster, confirming continued RUF interest in Western advanced munitions and showcasing their own IO attempts to downplay Western capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a video from a NATO Summit showing a handshake between Erdoğan and Macron, indicating RUF tracking of high-level Western diplomatic engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a court nationalized an oil company belonging to a Dagestan state secretary, further indicating RF internal anti-corruption measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Yuri Kokov, stated that Ukrainian special services are using Central Asian migrants to create networks of sleeper cells and support bases in Russia for sabotage and terrorist attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns photo message discusses a poll result stating a high percentage of labor migrants in Russia prefer Sharia law over secular law and are willing to protest for religious norms, implying internal security concerns within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts a video of Gorky Park, showing civilian life, which can be interpreted as normalcy propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" posts a video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine, indicating RUF's continued focus on information warfare and justification for its actions through historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, providing an official RUF diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video reports on theft of humanitarian aid for SVO participants, highlighting internal social issues and attempting to control the narrative around public support for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reports on positive attitudes towards migrants within Russia, which is likely an attempt to counter negative narratives or inter-ethnic tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video "Ты дверь точно закрыл?" with humorous caption suggests RUF is attempting to use humor for IO purposes, potentially to deflect from more serious topics or humanize their information channels. (LOW CONFIDENCE - specific IO purpose unclear beyond lighthearted content). RUF "Два майора" video "Ваша жизнь в прямом эфире!" with 2011 surveillance footage appears to be a misdirection or a non-military, non-strategic content. (LOW CONFIDENCE - no military value). New RUF "ТАСС" video showing Lukashenko personally greeting Putin in Belarus is a key IO effort to project strong bilateral relations and a united front against Western pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Басурин о главном" pushes a narrative of the British army being in deep crisis due to "unlawful punitive actions abroad" and internal contradictions, indicating continued RUF IO against Western militaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions:
- Strategic Attrition and Territorial Gain: RUF aims to continue attritional warfare to deplete UAF manpower and resources, while simultaneously seizing key strategic and tactical terrain, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, to consolidate control and create buffer zones. The reported "liberation" of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko (now corroborated by UAF/RUF visuals) reinforces this, and the advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast signals intent for deeper operational penetration.
- Degrade UAF Warfighting Capacity: Continued targeting of UAF defense industry, C2 nodes, and logistics aims to directly reduce Ukraine's ability to resist. Continued drone/missile attacks on civilian infrastructure and personnel aim to break Ukrainian will. Targeting Western aid infrastructure (e.g., in Germany) aims to deter future supplies.
- Sow Discord and Undermine Support: RUF will persist in its information campaigns to erode international support for Ukraine and destabilize Ukraine internally. This includes attempting to shift blame for civilian casualties to UAF AD.
- Secure Border Regions: Continue efforts to push UAF forces back from the Russian border, as seen in the Sumy direction, to create a perceived security buffer. Medvedev's statement confirms this intent for Kursk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Exploit Global Instability: RUF will continue to leverage geopolitical events (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, Putin-UAE meeting) to divert international attention and resources from Ukraine and portray a weakening Western influence.
- Internal Control and Mobilization: RUF will intensify internal security measures, counter-intelligence, and propaganda to maintain domestic stability, control dissent, and encourage military service, leveraging socio-economic factors and perceived external threats. The theft of aid for SVO participants suggests RUF will intensify efforts to maintain public support and control narratives around internal issues, potentially leveraging anti-immigrant sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The focus on "Youth Capital of the Union State" highlights long-term efforts to culturally integrate Belarus and project regional influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA: Continued high-intensity attritional offensives in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk axes), consolidating newly gained territory (Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Vilne Pole, Burlatsky, Kamyanske) and pressing towards Konstantinovka and potentially west into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Sustained, heavy KAB and missile strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets nationwide. Continued probing and fixing attacks on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes to tie up UAF reserves, but without a major breakthrough if Syrskyi's assessment holds. Intensified counter-intelligence and IO campaigns, including efforts to sow distrust in UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- MDCOA: A synchronized, multi-front offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk, designed to overwhelm UAF defenses and achieve rapid operational gains, supported by a saturation missile and drone campaign on strategic UAF targets, including targeting Western military aid hubs. Potential deployment of North Korean troops for specific, high-attrition roles. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF:
- New Official Claims of Capture: Formal declaration of "liberation" of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast, with Novoserhiivka confirmed by UAF sources and Shevchenko visually confirmed by RUF visual. This represents a significant advance and potential threat to UAF forces in Udachne. UAF DeepState corroborates RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske, confirming the breadth of RUF territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video detailing the storming of Yalta reinforces the tactical shift to direct assaults on key settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video showing special forces targeting UAF vehicles in Mirne indicates continued adaptation of small-unit operations with advanced targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" first-person video of storming an enemy strongpoint highlights a continued emphasis on direct infantry assault tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation" post suggests ongoing, detailed tactical awareness and adaptation in this critical area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" tactical map for Konstantinovka-Yablonovka indicates continued micro-level tactical planning and adaptation in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" FPV drone video from Pokrovsk confirms continued tactical drone use for targeting UAF vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, showing RUF adaptation of combined drone-artillery tactics against civilian/border areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Intensified Counter-Insurgency/Counter-Terrorism Operations: New reports of thwarting "terrorist attacks" in Moscow region and arrests of agents in Novorossiysk, including video confirmation of FSB detentions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Arrest of individual in Novorossiysk for sharing information on Ukrainian military objects, confirming continued RUF counter-intelligence efforts and a focus on disrupting Ukrainian intelligence gathering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" videos showing detentions further amplify the internal security narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk for allegedly transmitting information on Russian ship locations, reinforcing ongoing internal counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the arrest of a former head of Rosimushchestvo in Udmurtia on bribery charges, indicating continued internal corruption issues that could impact state resource management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video showing military/security personnel escorting civilians is consistent with internal security crackdowns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Yuri Kokov's statement on Ukrainian special services using Central Asian migrants for sabotage indicates a specific focus area for RUF internal security adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns discussing migrants' preference for Sharia law suggests internal societal challenges and related security adaptations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video report on theft of aid for SVO participants highlights domestic issues and internal security concerns related to public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reporting on positive public attitudes to migrants indicates an adaptation to manage internal societal narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Continued Attritional Assaults: As evidenced by UAF drone footage showing high RUF casualties, RUF continues to employ "meat grinder" tactics, relying on sheer numbers despite losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF "Два майора" video showing evacuation from LBS further confirms ongoing casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- IO Adaptation: Rapid integration of new territorial claims into official messaging. Use of visual media (like "Dragon's Teeth" photo, and claimed UAF war crimes videos) to discredit UAF preparedness and legitimacy. Leveraging human interest stories (e.g., "Fat Cat" and wounded civilian video) to humanize RUF or portray victimhood. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New emphasis on blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued derogatory messaging against Zelenskyy and NATO is observed, demonstrating persistence in undermining adversary leadership and alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian peace sentiment is a new IO tactic to influence public opinion and decision-making. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns using AI-generated content (deepfakes) to create false narratives of enemy leaders' "liquidation" indicates a new, highly deceptive and aggressive IO tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF's use of "Сливочный каприз" to post tactical maps indicates an attempt to convey detailed operational understanding to an internal audience, potentially for morale or recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video of Medvedev announcing war participants for "United Russia" elections demonstrates the merging of military and political narratives and the use of veterans for political legitimization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" using humorous video with geopolitical flags indicates an adaptation of IO to use lighthearted content to frame serious topics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "WarGonzo" reporting on US B-2 bomber incident suggests immediate exploitation of any perceived Western military vulnerabilities for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" videos focusing on deceased leaders (Zakharchenko) and personal stories of wounded personnel are adaptive IO for morale and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" video on poverty as a motivation for military service highlights an adaptive IO angle targeting socio-economic factors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) reporting on Ukraine's economy using Western sources is an adaptive IO tactic to lend credibility to negative narratives about Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" video of legislative session discussing history textbook revision is an adaptive IO strategy to justify the conflict through historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for negotiations, which is a key diplomatic messaging adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" and "WarGonzo" immediately amplifying visuals of returning POWs with Russian flags highlights adaptive IO to capitalize on humanitarian events for domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" celebrating their 3-year anniversary indicates a sustained, adaptive IO effort from these prominent channels. (LOW CONFIDENCE - self-promotion). Alex Parker Returns video "Ты дверь точно закрыл?" with a humorous tone shows RUF attempting to diversify its IO tactics. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning with flags, immediately using it for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" pushing the narrative of the British army's deep crisis demonstrates continued IO targeting Western military capabilities and internal issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Targeting Western Aid Logistics/Infrastructure: RUF claims regarding strikes on military repair facilities in Germany now corroborated by UAF sources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- ISR-Strike Synergy: Demonstrated effective use of Orlan-10 for reconnaissance paired with Lancet for strike missions in Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Use of "Geranium-2" (Shahed) for strikes on UAF temporary deployment points (Novoekonomicheskoe). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF FPV drone strike on UAF personnel and vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video showcasing FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" indicates continued refinement and reliance on heavy air-launched munitions for tactical and operational support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" drone footage confirms active UAV-supported targeting by units like the 39th Motor Rifle Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of RUF FPV drone strikes, demonstrating ongoing tactical adaptation in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration, confirming UAF long-range drone capabilities against RUF-occupied civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds confirms continued heavy aerial bombardment, indicating a well-integrated air-ground strike coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" FPV drone video from Pokrovsk demonstrates continued effective ISR-strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Social Controls: Implementation of alcohol sale restrictions in Moscow region indicates a willingness to impose social controls, potentially for security or public order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Increased interest in "Homeland Security" education suggests long-term social engineering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF requests for drone donations from private citizens show continued reliance on crowd-funding for basic military equipment, indicating supply chain challenges or decentralization of procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's decree extending draft deferment for Old Believers is a social policy adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Launch of "ruID" app for foreigners in Russia indicates a new layer of digital control for population management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Diplomatic Leveraging: Public statements from Peskov on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" not applying to Russia indicate a hardening diplomatic stance and rhetorical adaptation for international audiences. Putin's meeting with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk indicates Russia's continued efforts to expand its diplomatic and economic ties outside of traditional Western partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod further reinforces the deepening Russia-Belarus alliance, potentially streamlining logistical cooperation in central Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's formation of an organizing committee for the first Russian-Arab summit indicates a continued push for diplomatic diversification and influence building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Summoning German Ambassador to RF Foreign Ministry signals a willingness to engage in direct diplomatic confrontation over media issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's statements linking new negotiations to prisoner exchanges indicate a tactical use of humanitarian issues for diplomatic leverage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmation of the prisoner exchange by multiple RUF sources highlights their readiness to leverage such events for diplomatic and IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's two-day visit to Belarus signifies a key diplomatic adaptation to strengthen regional alliances in the face of Western pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel promoting "Youth Capital of the Union State," indicates cultural/political integration efforts as diplomatic tools. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video shows Lukashenko personally greeting Putin in Belarus, emphasizing the high-level nature of this diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Strategic Industrial Self-Sufficiency: New TASS video shows MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) beginning certification tests, indicating a long-term strategic adaptation towards domestic industrial self-sufficiency, which can indirectly support military production capabilities in the future. (LOW CONFIDENCE - indirect military relevance).
UAF:
- Successful Stabilization of Northern Front: Syrskyi's report confirms a major defensive success in halting the RUF advance in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Effective Aerial AD: Demonstrated use of fighter aircraft (MiG-29 pilot "Denfix") for night-time Shahed interceptions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF source "STERNENKO" reports 93rd ZRADn shot down 6 reconnaissance UAVs, indicating effective ground-based AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Potential for 5 more Patriot systems from the US would significantly enhance AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms deployment of new drone interceptor systems, indicating an adaptive UAF AD posture to counter RUF UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff's order to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions is a proactive tactical adaptation to counter RUF drone threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Effective Anti-Assault Drone Operations: UAF FPV drones inflicting heavy casualties on RUF "moto-groups" during assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF FPV drone strike destroying a Russian "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claimed first confirmed use of "Peklo" missile-drone indicates ongoing development and deployment of indigenous long-range strike capabilities. (LOW CONFIDENCE - needs independent verification). STERNENKO discussing importance of FPV drones on fiber optics highlights UAF's focus on technological advancements in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's FPV drone video operations demonstrate continued tactical effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video of FPV drone engaging a RUF soldier, with humorous caption, highlights continued aggressive and effective tactical drone use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's report of a 200,000 FPV drone target by end of June demonstrates a significant scaling and strategic adaptation in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast, showing continued cross-border offensive capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Successful Long-Range Strike Capability: GUR's release of A-22 Foxbat drone launch video demonstrates continued development and deployment of long-range strike assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone use, if verified, would represent a new long-range strike capability for UAF. (LOW CONFIDENCE on weapon type, HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting). UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message claims "Peklo" missile-drones are on the front with first evidence of use, indicating a new long-range strike adaptation. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim).
- Proactive Internal Security: Exposure of drug trafficking groups with military clients in Sumy indicates internal measures to maintain force integrity. Continued detention of evasion scheme organizers and TCC inspections of educational institutions indicates proactive measures against draft evasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Customs officer corruption case indicates ongoing internal challenges that can impact national finances and resource flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reporting on "dead souls" corruption scheme within a military unit demonstrates continued self-policing and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). SBU life sentence for war criminal in Kyiv Oblast demonstrates ongoing judicial efforts and determination to hold perpetrators accountable. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Continued Training and Readiness: Video footage from Kharkiv shows ongoing, realistic training for ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video shows deployed soldiers with equipment, suggesting continued operational readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF training on mine identification and EOD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video shows 78th Separate Assault Regiment conducting active combat operations, indicating high readiness and effective offensive tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" posting photos showcasing their personnel, emphasizing their ability to strike from the heavens, projects high readiness and combat capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlighting "Operation Interflex" demonstrates continued robust international training support and UAF adaptation through joint exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Effective Logistics Interdiction: Successful FPV drone attack on RUF fuel train in Zaporizhzhia Oblast demonstrates effective disruption of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New UAF "ASTRA" video confirms further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with movement halted, demonstrating continued and effective targeting of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Disaster Response: Completion of emergency recovery in Kyiv demonstrates effective civilian response to RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA video highlighting school children providing aid underscores continued civilian governance and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Demining Operations: Continued demining in Kharkiv Oblast demonstrates proactive efforts to secure territory and reduce long-term environmental hazards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Civilian-Military Coordination: Dnipropetrovsk OGA's "Safe Community" forum attendance shows continued coordination between civilian and military authorities on security matters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA's "Officer-Rescuer" project also indicates similar adaptive coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- POW Support: Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs meetings with families indicates an adaptive and ongoing effort to support POWs and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmation of ongoing prisoner exchange highlights adaptive humanitarian/diplomatic efforts by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Public display of returned servicemen by multiple UAF regional/official channels underscores strong political will and humanitarian focus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official, "РБК-Україна", and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provide emotional videos of returning servicemen, highlighting adaptive IO around POW returns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, indicating clear C2 and adaptive negotiation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF:
- Internal Strain: The report of a severely wounded soldier not being released from the front suggests potential pressure on medical evacuation and long-term care systems, possibly impacting morale and future recruitment. This is corroborated by multiple reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF "Два майора" video showing evacuation from LBS indicates ongoing medical support requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" report on conscript raids indicates continued pressure on manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve in Russian courts since the war began indicates significant internal resistance to military service and potential long-term manpower challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). A new sector of graves at the Izhevsk cemetery reinforces the narrative of sustained casualties and their impact on available manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video of Russian soldier stating "We're f***ed. I've fought enough" directly indicates low morale impacting sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" video on poverty as a reason for joining the war points to socio-economic factors influencing military manpower, indicating a need for economic incentives for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Public Anxiety impacting Resources: Increased interest in survival courses in Moscow might indicate public concern about safety and a potential drain on civilian resources (e.g., medical supplies, shelter equipment) for private preparations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Corruption/Internal Mismanagement: Searches and detentions in Surgut administration suggest ongoing internal issues that could impact resource allocation or public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports the arrest of a former head of Rosimushchestvo in Udmurtia on bribery charges, indicating continued internal corruption issues that could impact state resource management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video report on theft of humanitarian aid for SVO participants in Podmoskovye highlights corruption and internal security challenges impacting logistical support from the civilian sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Deepening Alliances for Sustainment: Expansion of special services cooperation with China could indicate joint efforts to mitigate sanctions and secure critical supplies. Potential North Korean troop deployment would directly address manpower/attrition issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod further reinforces the deepening Russia-Belarus alliance, potentially streamlining logistical cooperation in central Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's two-day visit to Belarus reinforces this deepening alliance, potentially leading to further logistical and economic integration for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video shows Lukashenko personally greeting Putin in Belarus, reinforcing high-level commitment to this alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Logistics Vulnerabilities: The successful UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF fuel train in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlights continued vulnerabilities in RUF logistics, particularly rail transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "RZD Passengers" app temporary unavailability could further impact rail logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" comment on Starlink suggests a significant technological gap for RUF forces that needs addressing, indicating a critical need for alternative communication/ISR solutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF strike on a gas station in Belgorod Oblast further highlights vulnerabilities of civilian infrastructure near the border impacting support/resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" appeal for drone donations indicates informal or decentralized procurement channels due to shortages or desire for specific models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash on Donbas video of hurricane in Luhansk indicates potential natural disaster impact on local logistics and infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" mention of Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, could indicate a logistics hub or area of interest. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ASTRA" video confirming further attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscores persistent vulnerability of RUF rail logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast, directly impacting fuel supply for RUF forces operating near the border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Strategic Industrial Production: New RUF TASS video on MS-21-310 aircraft (civilian) certification tests, while not directly military, signals RF's broader industrial efforts to maintain self-sufficiency under sanctions, which could eventually support military production. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
UAF:
- Internal Challenges: Exposure of drug trafficking in Sumy Oblast indicates a need for continued internal policing and support mechanisms to prevent substance abuse from impacting force readiness. Detention of evasion scheme organizers and TCC inspections are positive steps in maintaining force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Customs officer corruption case indicates ongoing internal challenges that can impact national finances and resource flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Temporary suspension of vehicle registration at Uhryniv checkpoint due to technical issues highlights potential vulnerabilities in border logistics and administrative systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reports on "dead souls" corruption scheme within a military unit, highlighting ongoing challenges in personnel and financial management within UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" report on deteriorating Russian economy is an intelligence focus point for UAF, but doesn't directly speak to UAF sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Training Needs: The Kharkiv training video highlights the ongoing need for training resources and facilities to maintain and improve combat effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video on "Operation Interflex" highlights the importance of international training for UAF sustainment and capability building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Combat Losses: The success of UAF FPV drones against RUF moto-groups highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare, but also implies ongoing equipment attrition that requires replenishment. Losses of Western equipment in Germany, while not direct UAF combat losses, impact overall force sustainment.
- Air Defense Capacity: The continued high tempo of RUF air and missile strikes, along with the Air Force alert, indicates persistent pressure on UAF AD resources and a need for continued replenishment and upgrading of systems. Potential for 5 more Patriot systems from the US would be a significant boost to UAF AD capacity and sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Redistribution of EW systems to frontline regions indicates a proactive measure to address immediate AD needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia also enhance local AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Long-Range Strike Capacity: While the A-22 Foxbat demonstration is positive, continued development and scaling of domestic long-range strike capabilities will be critical. Claimed "Peklo" missile-drone indicates continued indigenous development efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" launching a fundraising effort for the 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems highlights a significant resource requirement for scaling drone capabilities, indicating a strategic prioritization of this asset for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's target of 200,000 FPV drones by end of June implies a massive resource and logistical undertaking for FPV drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Logistics Protection: Continued need for robust logistics protection against RUF drone and missile strikes.
- Demining Efforts: Significant demining efforts in Kharkiv indicate a drain on resources for post-combat cleanup, but also critical for future operations and civilian safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: RUF MoD's rapid official declaration of newly captured territories (Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta) indicates a centralized and swift information release for battlefield gains, suggesting effective top-down C2. Continued counter-terrorism and counter-intelligence operations in RF territory (Novorossiysk, Moscow region, Bryansk AD), now with visual confirmation of FSB operations, highlight a concerted effort by FSB/MoD to maintain internal security and control. The issue of the wounded soldier not being released points to potential localized C2 failures or systemic issues with personnel management at lower echelons, contrasting with strategic messaging. Strategic C2 appears to be directing a sustained advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The alcohol restrictions in Moscow region and militarization of education also indicate centralized civilian control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF channels are coordinating IO to push the narrative of UAF AD causing civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's public statements on diplomatic stances and Putin's meeting schedule indicate a controlled and deliberate strategic C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Requests for drone donations from private individuals suggest a potentially decentralized or informal command and control structure for certain tactical procurements, or a gap in formal supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The high number of refusal-to-serve cases indicates a C2 challenge in enforcing conscription and maintaining discipline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's decree on draft deferment for Old Believers and the formation of a Russian-Arab summit organizing committee demonstrate centralized strategic C2 for long-term policy and foreign relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" videos showing detentions could be an implicit display of effective internal C2 for law enforcement/security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" posting tactical maps with "Sumy - Alekseevka" implies a level of tactical C2 and information sharing within RUF channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video of Medvedev's political speech about political integration of war participants demonstrates top-down C2 regarding internal political strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The summoning of the German Ambassador by the RF MFA indicates a centralized diplomatic C2 response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" mentioning Tuapse suggests a degree of C2 awareness of various regions. (LOW CONFIDENCE). The confirmed prisoner exchange by multiple RUF sources indicates centralized C2 for humanitarian/diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video "За базаром следят" of security forces escorting civilians reinforces C2 effectiveness in maintaining internal order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the arrest of Rosimushchestvo head demonstrates ongoing C2 over anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Yuri Kokov's statement on Ukrainian special services using Central Asian migrants for sabotage suggests high-level C2 awareness and narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine indicates a top-down C2 strategy for information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for negotiations, demonstrating centralized diplomatic messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's arrival in Belarus for a two-day visit demonstrates high-level, centralized strategic C2 focused on deepening alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel promoting Nizhny Novgorod as "Youth Capital of the Union State," shows C2 over cultural and political integration efforts between Russia and Belarus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" reporting on aid theft indicates C2 efforts to manage internal narratives around public support and security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" and "WarGonzo" immediately amplifying visuals of returning POWs with Russian flags demonstrates effective C2 for rapid IO dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" post about "Southern Donetsk Direction Situation" indicates a centralized C2 focus on key battle areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Сливочный каприз" map of Konstantinovka-Yablonovka indicates tactical C2 awareness and planning at the local level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS video showing Lukashenko personally greeting Putin demonstrates high-level strategic C2 in action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" pushing narrative of British army crisis indicates a centralized C2 directive for IO against Western militaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Syrskyi's clear statement on halting the Sumy advance reflects effective strategic C2 and timely assessment of the battlefield. The ongoing regional governance in Kharkiv, with important decisions being made and Governor's participation in security forums, demonstrates effective civilian C2 despite conflict. Successful aerial AD operations highlight effective C2 in air defense planning and execution. The exposure of drug trafficking and evasion schemes indicates a functional internal security C2. UAF Air Force issuing warnings indicates effective operational C2 for air defense. GUR's release of A-22 Foxbat drone launch video suggests coordinated strategic communication of new capabilities. UAF Central Election Commission statements indicate forward planning for civilian governance post-martial law. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reorganization indicates ongoing governmental C2 and reform. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued demining operations and reporting by the Kharkiv Governor demonstrate effective regional civilian and military coordination on critical safety tasks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Shmyhal's directive to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions signifies effective top-down tactical C2 adaptation to immediate battlefield needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The establishment of new drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia also points to effective regional military-civilian C2 in adapting to threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video demonstrates effective tactical C2 within a specific assault unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA's "Safe Community" forum participation indicates effective civilian C2 in coordinating regional security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA's "Officer-Rescuer" project further exemplifies adaptive regional C2 for community safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff issuing "operative information" updates demonstrates consistent central military C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The UAF General Prosecutor's Office's action against "dead souls" corruption within a military unit signifies effective internal oversight C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). SBU life sentence for war criminal in Kyiv Oblast reflects effective judicial C2 in pursuing accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs meetings indicates a robust and compassionate C2 for humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA video highlighting schoolchildren aiding after a missile strike reflects effective local civilian C2 and community response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmation of prisoner exchange by TASS suggests effective UAF C2 in humanitarian and diplomatic negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Multiple UAF official channels (Kharkiv OGA, KMVA, Zaporizhzhia OMA, Dnipropetrovsk OMA, Operatyvnyi ZSU, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraine, Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs) coordinating rapid, positive messaging around the prisoner exchange indicates a well-oiled IO and C2 system for key events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" fundraising for 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems indicates a C2 decision to scale drone capabilities significantly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" posting photos of its personnel suggests a C2 decision to promote its elite units for morale and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's public target of 200,000 FPV drones by end of June implies a clear C2 directive for FPV drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" claiming "Peklo" missile-drones on front suggests a C2 decision to publicize new weapon systems. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim). UAF "РБК-Україна" reports on currency fluctuations may indicate C2 awareness and focus on economic stability. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF РБК-Україна providing video messages of returning POWs demonstrates high-level C2 for morale and IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Moldova's EU accession talks and Ukraine's exclusion indicates a C2 awareness of geopolitical developments impacting national strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video shows C2 over humanitarian aspects of prisoner exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on exchange terms, demonstrating effective strategic intelligence C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video on "Operation Interflex" highlights effective C2 in coordinating multinational military training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video on film presentation in Paris indicates C2 over strategic communication and cultural diplomacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, particularly in Sumy Oblast, where the RUF advance has been completely stopped. UAF forces continue to repel multiple RUF assaults on various axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Offensive Capabilities: UAF FPV drone units are demonstrating high effectiveness in destroying RUF assault groups, inflicting significant casualties. UAF also shows capability for effective aerial engagements against RUF UAVs and successful long-range drone strikes into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The GUR's public display of the A-22 Foxbat drone launch indicates growing and confident deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demonstrated capability to destroy Russian MLRS (Grad) with FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claimed first confirmed use of the "Peklo" missile-drone suggests continuous innovation in offensive assets. (LOW CONFIDENCE - needs verification). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video demonstrates offensive readiness and effective tactical execution by assault units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO discussing importance of FPV drones on fiber optics highlights UAF's focus on technological advancements in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration demonstrates continued offensive capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video showcases continued aggressive FPV drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" photos portray elite combat capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlighting "Peklo" missile-drones suggests a new offensive long-range strike capability. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast, demonstrating persistent cross-border offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is demonstrating adaptive and successful air defense, including using fighter aircraft for night-time UAV interceptions, and has issued an alert suggesting readiness for further aerial threats. UAF 93rd ZRADn demonstrated effective ground-based AD against reconnaissance UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Potential for 5 more Patriot systems from the US would significantly enhance AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Shmyhal's order to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions is a proactive tactical adaptation to immediate battlefield needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA's announcement of new drone interceptor systems confirms adaptive AD readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Force Generation & Training: UAF continues robust training programs for its ground forces, indicating sustained efforts to maintain and enhance combat readiness. Efforts to combat evasion schemes, including TCC inspections of educational institutions, are ongoing and show a proactive approach to force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mine awareness training for infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" fundraising for the 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems indicates active force generation and expansion in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's target of 200,000 FPV drones by end of June demonstrates a massive scale-up in force generation for drone operators and systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video on "Operation Interflex" highlights continued international training support for UAF, bolstering force readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security: UAF internal security forces (SBU, police) are active in combating criminal activity, including drug trafficking and evasion schemes, which helps maintain force integrity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) General Prosecutor's Office uncovering corruption at customs indicates continued commitment to internal state security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Temporary suspension of vehicle registration at Uhryniv checkpoint due to technical issues indicates a vulnerability that can impact personnel/logistics flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reporting on "dead souls" corruption scheme within a military unit, highlighting ongoing personnel management challenges and a need for improved oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). SBU life sentence for war criminal in Kyiv Oblast is a significant legal and IO success for UAF accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Leadership/Governance: Civilian governance continues, as demonstrated by the Kharkiv Governor's activities and statements from the Central Election Commission regarding future elections. General Prosecutor's Office restructuring indicates continued governmental function. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Awarding "Hero of Ukraine" posthumously boosts morale and recognizes sacrifices. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demining efforts reflect proactive civilian governance in war-affected areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA's announcement of financial aid for families affected by RUF attacks indicates robust civilian support initiatives for morale and social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA's "Officer-Rescuer" project underscores continued civilian-military coordination for community safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs meetings indicates a robust and compassionate C2 for humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) KMVA video highlighting schoolchildren aiding after a missile strike confirms ongoing local governance and community support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmed prisoner exchange reflects effective UAF C2 in humanitarian operations and strong state commitment to returning POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA video of returning POWs reinforces civilian-military coordination in personnel support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official and UAF РБК-Україна provide video messages of returning POWs, reflecting high-level leadership engagement in supporting military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA issues postage stamps, maintaining symbolic resistance. (LOW CONFIDENCE - symbolic). "Олександр Вілкул" (Likely a Ukrainian official) photo message highlights volunteers and aid workers, indicating continued civilian support for the war effort and reinforcing resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing national resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, highlighting leadership's engagement with POW affairs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, indicating UAF leadership's commitment to strategic communication and international outreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- RUF advance on Sumy front completely stopped and contact line stabilized by UAF forces, re-engaging 50,000 RUF troops (Syrskyi). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Repelled 14 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Ukrainian FPV drones inflicting significant casualties on RUF assault moto-groups on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) FPV drone destruction of RUF "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video shows continued effective FPV drone operations against RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirms FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast, demonstrating successful cross-border interdiction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Successful air-to-air interception of a Russian Shahed drone by a Ukrainian fighter pilot (MiG-29 'Denfix'). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- 93rd ZRADn shot down 6 RUF reconnaissance UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Exposure of a drug trafficking group in Sumy Oblast and detention of evasion scheme organizers, including new TCC inspections in Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Successful long-range FPV drone strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New UAF "ASTRA" video confirms further successful attacks on RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with movement halted, indicating continued effective interdiction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Public display of A-22 Foxbat long-range drone launch. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF "РБК-Україна" photo message highlights "Peklo" missile-drones on the front with first evidence of use, suggesting a new long-range strike capability. (LOW CONFIDENCE - initial claim).
- Continued high-intensity training of ground forces in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Specialized mine awareness training for 58th Motorized Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing successful multinational military training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Confirmed prisoner exchange underway, with UAF forces returned, including long-held POWs from 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Multiple UAF channels (Zelenskiy / Official, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Оперативний ЗСУ) provide emotional videos confirming the return of servicemen. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Completion of emergency recovery work in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Over 260 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week, indicating successful efforts to reclaim territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Potential for 5 additional Patriot systems from the US signifies continued and possibly increasing Western military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Awarding "Hero of Ukraine" to Maksym Yemets highlights UAF's recognition of sacrifices. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Exposure of customs officer corruption demonstrates commitment to internal governance and security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Shmyhal's order to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions is a proactive measure to enhance defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Zaporizhzhia OMA's announcement of new drone interceptor systems signifies adaptive AD measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video confirms successful trench assaults and clearing operations by UAF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" photos showcase strong combat posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAF General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing "dead souls" corruption scheme within a military unit, highlighting successful internal anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). SBU securing a life sentence in absentia for a war criminal in Kyiv Oblast is a significant legal and IO success for UAF accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs meetings indicates effective ongoing support and communication. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration demonstrates continued offensive capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA video highlighting schoolchildren aiding after a missile strike demonstrates effective civilian response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Zaporizhzhia OMA issues postage stamps, maintaining symbolic resistance. (LOW CONFIDENCE - symbolic).
- UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" launches significant fundraising for 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems, indicating successful adaptation to combat needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAF "STERNENKO" sets ambitious 200,000 FPV drone target, signaling strategic success in drone warfare scaling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, highlighting successful efforts to garner international support through cultural diplomacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- RUF claims liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast, with Novoserhiivka specifically confirmed by UAF sources and Shevchenko visually confirmed by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). If confirmed, these represent tactical losses. RUF also claims liberation of Yalta (DNR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with supporting video). RUF successful strikes on UAF temporary deployment points (Novoekonomicheskoe). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), indicating continued tactical losses for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of special forces destroying UAF vehicles in Mirne indicates continued UAF equipment losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" video of FAB strikes on UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade strongholds indicates effective RUF aerial targeting against UAF defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows FPV drone strike on UAF pickup near Pokrovsk, confirming UAF equipment losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating continued RUF pressure and civilian casualties on the Dnipropetrovsk border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- The report of UAF AD potentially striking a Kyiv high-rise (RUF claim) could be a setback if proven true, or a significant IO challenge if it gains traction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
- Drug trafficking impacting military personnel in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Losses of military equipment in Germany due to claimed RUF strikes, now corroborated by UAF sources showing burning military trucks in Erfurt. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates successful attack on Western aid/logistics, regardless of attribution of attacker).
- RUF KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate continued vulnerability to aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Temporary suspension of vehicle registration at Uhryniv checkpoint due to technical issues indicates a logistical disruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports EU will open accession talks with Moldova but not Ukraine, a diplomatic setback for Ukraine's integration efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Personnel Management: The issue of military personnel involvement in drug trafficking highlights a need for continued focus on personnel well-being and internal disciplinary measures. Efforts to combat evasion schemes remain critical for force generation. TCC inspections in educational institutions signal increased pressure on recruitment. UAF General Prosecutor's Office exposing "dead souls" schemes indicates ongoing personnel management challenges and a need for improved oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Training Resources: Sustained training efforts require ongoing provision of equipment, ammunition, and dedicated training areas. Specifically, specialized training like EOD/mine awareness needs consistent resources. New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video on "Operation Interflex" indicates the continued need for international training support and resources to maintain and enhance UAF capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Combat Losses: The success of UAF FPV drones against RUF moto-groups highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare, but also implies ongoing equipment attrition that requires replenishment. Losses of Western equipment in Germany, while not direct UAF combat losses, impact overall force sustainment.
Air Defense Capacity: The continued high tempo of RUF air and missile strikes, along with the Air Force alert, indicates persistent pressure on UAF AD resources and a need for continued replenishment and upgrading of systems. The potential acquisition of 5 Patriot systems significantly addresses this constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Redistribution of EW systems to frontline regions indicates a proactive measure to address immediate AD needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Deployment of new drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia also reflects addressing resource gaps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Long-Range Strike Capacity: While the A-22 Foxbat demonstration is positive, continued development and scaling of domestic long-range strike capabilities will be critical. Claimed "Peklo" missile-drone indicates continued indigenous development efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" fundraising for the 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems underscores a significant and ongoing resource requirement for scaling drone capabilities and sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's target of 200,000 FPV drones by end of June represents a massive resource and logistical undertaking for FPV drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Logistics Protection: Continued need for robust logistics protection against RUF drone and missile strikes. The technical issues at Uhryniv checkpoint highlight vulnerabilities in administrative logistics that need to be addressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Further successful UAF interdiction of RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia indicates a critical need for UAF to maintain offensive logistics targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The FPV drone strike on a gas station in Belgorod Oblast further highlights the need for UAF to maintain offensive capabilities to degrade RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Demining Resources: Significant demining efforts in Kharkiv highlight the ongoing need for specialized equipment and trained personnel for clearing contaminated areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF:
- Territorial Gains and Victory Narrative: Official MoD announcements of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, and Yalta "liberation" are central to projecting continued RUF advance and success, now visually supported for Shevchenko and Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Dehumanization: Continued use of terms like "Ukrainian Nazis" by channels like "AV БогомаZ" to justify actions and incite hatred. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Internal Security Narrative: Amplifying thwarting "terrorist attacks" in Moscow region and arrests of "enemy agents" in Novorossiysk, with visual confirmation from FSB operations, to justify internal repression and portray Ukraine as a terrorist state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Detention of individual in Novorossiysk for sharing information about Ukrainian military objects reinforces the narrative of internal threats requiring state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" videos of detentions further amplify the internal security narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video of Medvedev speaking about integrating war participants into elections aligns with a narrative of national unity and justification for the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" reporting on the arrest of an individual who threw a child in the airport, while domestic, contributes to a general narrative of maintaining internal order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports FSB detained an elderly ship worker in Novorossiysk, reinforcing internal security narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video "За базаром следят" of security forces escorting civilians likely aims to demonstrate state control and law enforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports the arrest of a former head of Rosimushchestvo in Udmurtia for bribery, feeding into internal anti-corruption narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Yuri Kokov's statement on Ukrainian special services using Central Asian migrants for sabotage and terror attacks, framing Ukraine as a terrorist state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns discusses a poll on migrant preference for Sharia law, further highlighting internal security concerns and cultural integration issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video report on theft of humanitarian aid for SVO participants in Podmoskovye highlights corruption and internal security challenges impacting logistical support from the civilian sector, potentially blaming ethnic minorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Военкор Котенок" reporting on positive public attitudes towards migrants in Russia, indicating a counter-narrative attempt to manage public perception of integration issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast, reinforcing security and control narratives for border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Undermining UAF Capabilities: RUF source "Военкор Котенок" attempting to portray UAF defensive preparations ("Dragon's Teeth") as "aimlessly piled up" to suggest incompetence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Воин DV" attempts to use alleged UAF footage to accuse UAF of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
- Shifting Blame for Civilian Casualties: RUF source "Alex Parker Returns" and "Операция Z" attempts to discredit UAF Air Defense by claiming UAF admitted to AD striking civilian building in Kyiv, or that UAF AD is inherently dangerous to civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
- Exaggerating UAF Losses/Discrediting Personnel: "Colonelcassad" attempting to share photos of "destroyed mercenaries" is a common RUF IO tactic to demoralize UAF and its foreign support, though no image was provided for analysis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - No image for verification).
- Internal Dissatisfaction/Morale: The report about the severely wounded soldier not being released from the front, while potentially an isolated incident, could be indicative of internal issues that RUF seeks to suppress or ignore, but could also be exploited by UAF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF video showing LBS evacuation could also remind the public of ongoing losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Conscript raids continue, affecting public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve indicates significant internal dissent and potentially low morale among conscript-age populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new sector of graves in Izhevsk directly acknowledges casualties, but can be framed to justify the "fight." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The "Stormtroopers are not meat" message indicates attempts to manage morale within the military and public perception of losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video of Russian soldier stating "We're f***ed. I've fought enough" suggests deep cracks in RUF morale, potentially impacting public perception of the war's viability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Филолог в засаде" discussing military volunteering may be an IO effort to boost recruitment/support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" video discussing poverty as a reason for going to war serves as an internal justification or recruitment tool. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" and "WarGonzo" immediately amplifying visuals of returning POWs with Russian flags serves as a morale boost and positive IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" celebrates 3-year anniversary, reinforcing the channel's perceived importance for the war effort. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, immediately using it for IO purposes to boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Targeting Western Aid: RUF reports regarding strikes on UAF equipment repair facility in Germany are designed to discourage international aid and project reach, now bolstered by UAF corroboration of the fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
- Global Narrative: Highlighting Iran's claims of victory over Israel and suspension of IAEA cooperation creates significant regional instability, potentially distracting international attention and resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Lavrov's statements minimizing NATO defense spending impact on RF security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Serbian PM's pledge not to send arms to Ukraine, aiming to show Ukraine's isolation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's statements on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" rejecting Russia are tailored for both domestic and international audiences, attempting to control narratives around global security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF channels continue to amplify derogatory terms for Zelenskyy and question NATO's unity, demonstrating consistent efforts to undermine adversaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod is a soft power projection emphasizing regional alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns using AI-generated "liquidation" of Israeli leaders is an aggressive and deceptive IO tactic to fuel regional instability narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian peace sentiment is a targeted IO campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" pushing the "Finland as new Ukraine" narrative aims to sow anti-NATO sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS video of Peskov's pre-summit statements frames Russia's actions as a response to NATO expansion, justifying their aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "WarGonzo" reporting on B-2 Spirit bomber incident aims to sow doubt about Western military capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Два майора" using humorous video with geopolitical flags reflects RUF's evolving IO tactics to reach wider audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" video on Zakharchenko serves to reinforce the narrative of heroic pro-Russian leaders and continued struggle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" video recounting personal experiences related to conflict serves to humanize RUF efforts and potentially garner sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" reporting on Ukraine's economy from The Washington Post frames it as a sign of weakness, serving RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video showing GBU-57 bunker buster is an IO piece to dismiss Western technological superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS photo messages and ASTRA videos immediately amplifying prisoner exchange visuals with Russian flags serves as a key IO tactic to project strength and commitment to personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on Trump's statement about Fordow destruction, highlighting RUF's keen interest in and rapid dissemination of information concerning Western military actions and nuclear issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "ТАСС" video showing Lukashenko personally greeting Putin in Belarus is a key IO effort to project strong bilateral relations and a united front against Western pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Басурин о главном" pushes a narrative of the British army being in deep crisis due to "unlawful punitive actions abroad" and internal contradictions, indicating continued RUF IO against Western militaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Humanizing RUF: RUF source "Два майора" uses a human-interest story about a cat at a PVD to elicit sympathy for RUF personnel, a common IO tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "WarGonzo" video with wounded civilian narrative is similar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
- Domestic Propaganda: WarGonzo promoting a documentary on the Terek Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Militarization of education (St. Petersburg) for long-term ideological control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF reports on "future terrorist attacks in Syria" and the banning of media/music (e.g., "American Dad," Kizaru) reinforce a narrative of external and internal threats to justify state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Requests for drone donations (e.g., "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") are a form of bottom-up propaganda, mobilizing public support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Control Narrative: Reports of alcohol restrictions and public safety measures (children near water) indicate a broader state control narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Monorail shutdown (minor, but for stability). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Launch of "ruID" app for foreigners for entry applications indicates a new digital control mechanism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" posts a video of Gorky Park, subtly promoting normalcy and leisure to deflect from the war. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" video of a legislative session discussing revision of history textbooks in Ukraine is a direct IO effort to justify the war and shape public perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for negotiations, providing an official RUF diplomatic stance to project willingness for dialogue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel promoting Nizhny Novgorod as "Youth Capital of the Union State" is a direct soft power and domestic propaganda effort aimed at integrating youth and promoting the Russia-Belarus alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns video "Ты дверь точно закрыл?" with humorous caption suggests RUF attempts to humanize or make their content more relatable. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, with accompanying text confirming the "Istanbul agreements," framing it as a successful Russian initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF:
- Highlighting Defensive Successes: Syrskyi's official statement on halting the Sumy advance is a major IO success, demonstrating effective defense and refuting RUF narratives of overwhelming force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Showcasing Combat Effectiveness: Videos of FPV drones inflicting heavy RUF casualties and fighter pilots destroying Shaheds are powerful messages of UAF's technical and tactical superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF's public display of the A-22 Foxbat drone launch further reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New FPV drone strike on a "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claimed first confirmed use of "Peklo" missile-drone suggests continuous innovation in offensive assets. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video showcases successful trench assaults, projecting competence and effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's content on FPV drones and their importance for combat effectiveness is a key IO message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration demonstrates continued offensive capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video of FPV drone operations reinforces combat effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" photos portray elite combat capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" fundraising for 425th Battalion of Unmanned Systems and STERNENKO's 200,000 FPV drone target clearly demonstrate IO focused on drone warfare scaling and public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" highlighting "Peklo" missile-drones is an IO effort to showcase new weapon systems. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video confirming FPV drone strike on Tatneft gas station in Pyatnitske, Belgorod Oblast, demonstrates continued effective cross-border offensive operations and IO use of such events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing international training and alliance building for IO purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Reinforcing International Support: Lithuanian President's strong statements on continued sanctions and no "light at the end of the tunnel" for peace without Russian change supports the narrative of unwavering international resolve. Erdogan's statements about Trump joining talks with Putin highlight continued diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Unofficial reports of 5 additional Patriot systems from the US will reinforce narratives of robust international military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" reporting on EU accession talks with Moldova frames it as a positive step for regional stability and Western integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on EU accession talks with Moldova but not Ukraine highlights a nuanced diplomatic reality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "РБК-Україна" video about Putin playing against Trump reinforces narrative of geopolitical struggle and Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF IO efforts for international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Transparency on Internal Issues: Reporting on drug trafficking among military personnel and evasion schemes demonstrates a commitment to transparency and addressing internal challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Corruption at customs, while negative, the public reporting of it can build trust in institutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Transparency regarding technical issues at Uhryniv checkpoint can build public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reporting on corruption within the military and SBU sentencing of a war criminal, while negative facts, contribute to public trust by demonstrating accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reporting on the deteriorating Russian economy suggests UAF's focus on identifying and exploiting RUF weaknesses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports on Ukraine's economy from The Washington Post, indicating a willingness to acknowledge challenges openly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Training and Readiness: Videos showcasing intense UAF training serve to reassure the public and international partners about UAF's continued commitment to readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New mine awareness training emphasizes UAF readiness for complex battlefield environments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Humanitarian Focus: Reporting on prisoner exchanges and support for POW families is critical for maintaining morale among troops and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Posthumous awards like "Hero of Ukraine" serve as powerful morale boosters and symbols of national gratitude. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA's financial aid initiatives will positively impact public sentiment, especially in affected areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs emphasizing importance of being remembered in captivity speaks directly to morale and emotional support for POWs and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Multiple UAF channels displaying emotional reunions of POWs are significant morale boosters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA video highlighting schoolchildren aiding after a missile strike is a strong morale booster, showing community resilience and engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official, "РБК-Україна", and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" emotional videos of returning servicemen are powerful for public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, some burning black clothing, reinforcing national resolve and the humanitarian aspect of the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on prisoner exchange terms, highlighting leadership's commitment to returning personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Post-War Planning: Discussions about election procedures signal confidence in a post-war future. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- National Identity: Commemoration of Crimean Tatar Flag Day reinforces national identity and commitment to de-occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA stamp issue "Melitopol is Ukraine!" reinforces national unity. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
- Effective Civilian Governance: Kharkiv Governor's activities and Kyiv's recovery efforts reinforce a narrative of functional governance despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demining reports reinforce proactive efforts to restore normal life. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA's "Officer-Rescuer" project highlights continued efforts for community safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA's "Safe Community" forum demonstrates continuity of governance and security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Олександр Вілкул" photo message highlights civilian volunteers and aid workers, boosting civic morale and emphasizing shared purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Publicly address economic fluctuations with reassuring messages of stability and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- EU Accession Disparity: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Moldova's EU accession talks and Ukraine's exclusion could negatively impact morale, but also reinforce a narrative of independent strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

RUF:
- Rising Anxiety: Increased interest in survival courses in Moscow suggests heightened public anxiety about security and potential future conflict escalation within Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Impact of Casualties/Disregard for Soldiers: The report of the severely wounded soldier not being released from the front could negatively impact public morale and trust in military leadership if widely known or perceived as systemic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF video showing LBS evacuation could also remind the public of ongoing losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Conscript raids continue, affecting public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve indicates significant internal dissent and potentially low morale among conscript-age populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new sector of graves in Izhevsk directly acknowledges casualties, but can be framed to justify the "fight." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The "Stormtroopers are not meat" message indicates attempts to manage morale within the military and public perception of losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video of Russian soldier stating "We're f***ed. I've fought enough" suggests deep cracks in RUF morale, potentially impacting public perception of the war's viability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" video discussing poverty as a reason for joining the war reflects internal social issues that could impact morale and willingness to serve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" video report on theft of aid for SVO participants highlights internal social and security issues, potentially impacting public support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" and "WarGonzo" videos showing returning POWs are used to boost domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows Russian POWs returning from exchange, which will be used to boost domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Effectiveness of IO: RUF's ability to quickly announce territorial gains (Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta) aims to boost domestic morale and reinforce the perception of progress. The "Fat Cat" story attempts to create an emotional connection and reinforce victimhood. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Visuals of returning POWs with Russian flags will be used to boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Crackdowns: Searches and detentions in Surgut administration, the thwarted terror attack in Moscow region, and alcohol restrictions likely increase public fear and reinforce the state's control narrative. The "buried women" ritual incident highlights strange societal undercurrents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Banning of media/music signals increasing cultural control, potentially impacting social freedoms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The arrest of an individual in Novorossiysk for sharing information with Ukraine reinforces the narrative of constant threat and justifies a surveillance state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's statements on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" not applying to Russia are tailored to manage public expectations and justify ongoing actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian peace sentiment is designed to impact both Ukrainian and Russian public perception of the conflict's end. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video of Medvedev's political integration of war participants aims to legitimize the conflict and unify society, but also may highlight the human cost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video "За базаром следят" of security forces escorting civilians reinforces state control, which can impact public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Новости Москвы" reporting on the office violence incident and garden opening (civilian events) demonstrate a focus on domestic tranquility and normalcy, which can influence public morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on Yuri Kokov's statement on migrant involvement in terror attacks is designed to heighten public fear and justify internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns discussing migrants' preference for Sharia law aims to fuel xenophobia and justify control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Nationalism: Emphasizing shared special services cooperation with China and perceived victories over external adversaries (Israel/US) aims to rally nationalist sentiment. Militarization of education aims to instill long-term loyalty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The "fake news" claim about Kamchatka demonstrates RUF efforts to manage internal perceptions of military readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod aims to project stability and strength through alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's visit to Belarus and the "Youth Capital of the Union State" initiative contribute to fostering nationalist sentiment and promoting the Russia-Belarus alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF TASS photo message shows Medvedev stating that RF Armed Forces will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast, which will boost domestic morale and reinforce nationalistic pride in border security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF:
- Resilience and Resolve: The halting of the Sumy advance will significantly boost Ukrainian public morale and reinforce faith in their military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Confidence in Military: Visual proof of successful drone operations and aerial AD (e.g., "Denfix" pilot), and the A-22 Foxbat launch reinforces confidence in UAF's ability to defend the country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The establishment of new drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia and the redistribution of EW systems will boost public confidence in defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video of FPV drone operations, UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" photos, and "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" fundraising efforts for drones all reinforce confidence in military capabilities and adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO's FPV drone target aims to rally public support and confidence in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" highlighting "Peklo" missile-drones contributes to public confidence in new weaponry. (LOW CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video on "Operation Interflex" will boost public confidence in UAF's training and international partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video about film "Our War" contributes to public morale by highlighting international support and shared purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Concerns about Internal Challenges: The report on drug trafficking among military personnel and evasion schemes could cause some public concern, but transparent reporting and action will likely mitigate negative impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Corruption at customs, while negative, the public reporting of it can build trust in institutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Transparency regarding technical issues at Uhryniv checkpoint can build public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reporting on corruption within the military and SBU sentencing of a war criminal, while negative facts, contribute to public trust by demonstrating accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Long-Term Outlook: The Lithuanian President's "no light at the end of the tunnel" comment and a three-year war projection may reflect a realistic but somber assessment that could impact public sentiment regarding the war's duration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Training Morale: Footage of active and challenging training indicates high morale and commitment among UAF recruits and active personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Humanitarian Focus: News of prisoner exchanges and support for POW families is critical for maintaining morale among troops and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Posthumous awards like "Hero of Ukraine" serve as powerful morale boosters and symbols of national gratitude. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA's financial aid initiatives will positively impact public sentiment, especially in affected areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs emphasizing importance of being remembered in captivity speaks directly to morale and emotional support for POWs and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Multiple UAF channels displaying emotional reunions of POWs are significant morale boosters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA video highlighting schoolchildren aiding after a missile strike is a strong morale booster, showing community resilience and engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF President Zelenskiy / Official, "РБК-Україна", and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" emotional videos of returning servicemen are powerful for public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" video provides additional visuals of returning Ukrainian POWs, reinforcing public support for the exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms Budanov's statements on exchange terms, which will reassure families of POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Symbolic Unity: Observance of Crimean Tatar Flag Day reinforces national unity and commitment to sovereignty over occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA stamp issue "Melitopol is Ukraine!" reinforces national unity. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
- Civic Continuity: News about housing loans and election discussions provides a sense of normalcy and future planning, which can positively impact public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demining efforts contribute to a sense of progress and safety for civilians returning to liberated areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Governor's activities and Kyiv's recovery efforts reinforce a narrative of functional governance despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv OGA's "Officer-Rescuer" project highlights continued efforts for community safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Dnipropetrovsk OGA's "Safe Community" forum demonstrates continuity of governance and security efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Олександр Вілкул" photo message highlights civilian volunteers and aid workers, boosting civic morale and emphasizing shared purpose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Publicly address economic fluctuations with reassuring messages of stability and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- EU Accession Disparity: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on Moldova's EU accession talks and Ukraine's exclusion could negatively impact morale, but also reinforce a narrative of independent strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Continued Strong Support for Ukraine:
- Political Support: Lithuanian President's call for an 18th sanctions package signals continued political and economic pressure on Russia from EU allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Ireland's PM expresses regret over Hungary's blockade of Ukraine's EU accession, highlighting continued EU support for Ukraine's integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Military Aid: North Korea's potential troop deployment to Russia would be a significant development for international support, potentially galvanizing further Western aid to Ukraine. Germany's funding of "Lyutiy" UAVs indicates continued direct military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Unofficial reports of 5 additional Patriot systems from the US indicate continued high-level military support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" video highlights "Operation Interflex," showcasing joint military training with UK, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Romania, Estonia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, demonstrating robust and continuing international military support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" video reports on a film "Our War" presented in Paris, aimed at uniting the world around Ukraine, indicating continued UAF efforts to solidify international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Challenges to Peace Negotiations: Lithuanian President's statement reiterates the Western stance that Russia is not genuinely interested in negotiations without a ceasefire, reinforcing the need for continued military pressure and a longer war. Erdogan's push for Trump and Putin to meet for peace talks indicates continued third-party diplomatic efforts, but contingent on key figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Peskov's statement on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" rejecting Russia indicates RUF's hardline stance on negotiations and refusal to engage from a position of perceived weakness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's statement that the date for "Istanbul" peace talks depends on prisoner exchanges indicates a tactical diplomatic approach, leveraging humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin stated date for new negotiations with Ukraine will be determined after current prisoner exchanges, confirming a conditional RUF diplomatic stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmed prisoner exchange signals ongoing, albeit limited, diplomatic engagement for humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated Istanbul remains a platform for negotiations, which is a key diplomatic messaging adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Colonelcassad reports on Trump's statement about Fordow destruction, highlighting RUF's keen interest in and rapid dissemination of information concerning Western military actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "РБК-Україна" video about Putin playing against Trump reinforces the ongoing geopolitical struggle and diplomatic maneuvering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Third-Party Mediation: Erdogan's statement on seeking a meeting for peaceful settlement indicates continued international efforts for diplomacy, but likely without significant breakthrough given current Russian stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Deepening Russia-DPRK/China/Belarus Ties: Potential North Korean troop deployment to Russia signals an alarming deepening of military cooperation between authoritarian regimes, which will be viewed with concern by Western and Asian powers. Expansion of RF-China special services cooperation reinforces this trend. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin's meeting with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk indicates Russia's continued efforts to expand its diplomatic and economic ties outside of traditional Western partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod further strengthens Russia-Belarus ties, a key regional alliance for Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin forming an organizing committee for the first Russian-Arab summit indicates a continued push for diplomatic diversification and influence building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin's two-day visit to Belarus confirms a deepening of political and strategic alliance with Russia, potentially impacting logistical and military cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Глеб Никитин" channel promotes cultural integration with Belarus ("Youth Capital of the Union State"), supporting the diplomatic narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New TASS video shows Lukashenko personally greeting Putin in Belarus, emphasizing the high-level nature of this diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Middle East Instability: Iran's declared victory over Israel and suspension of IAEA cooperation creates significant regional instability, potentially distracting international attention and resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) US preconditions for Iran negotiations indicate continued international focus on regional stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The billboard in Tel Aviv about the "Abraham Alliance" suggests continued efforts for regional normalization, which could impact the broader geopolitical landscape. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns using AI to depict "liquidation" of Israeli leaders highlights the use of advanced IO to shape international perceptions of Middle East conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Trump's statement on Iran's Fordow facility aligns with Western narratives on successful strikes, influencing international perception of Iran's nuclear program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports European countries believe Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles were not destroyed by US strikes, suggesting continued concerns about proliferation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "WarGonzo" reporting on US B-2 bomber incident aims to sow doubt about Western military capabilities in the context of Middle East strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Оперативний ЗСУ" video of US military official discussing bunker-buster strikes on Iranian nuclear sites demonstrates US continued focus on regional stability and capability projection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" highlights Bloomberg report of $3B Israeli damage from Iranian shelling, pushing narrative of regional conflict and Israel's vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Balkan Geopolitics: Serbian PM's pledge not to send arms to Ukraine highlights Russia's continued diplomatic influence in key regions and potential for internal EU/NATO divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reporting on Western attempts to overthrow power in Serbia reinforces this narrative and RUF's alignment with anti-Western positions in the Balkans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
EU Internal Affairs: EU Commissioner's call for a "drone armada" suggests an increased focus on European defense capabilities in response to Russian aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports German Ambassador to RF will be summoned by RF MFA, indicating a diplomatic spat impacting bilateral relations with a key EU member. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" reports EU opening accession talks with Moldova, indicating a continued push for EU enlargement and influence in Eastern Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "РБК-Україна" reports French President Macron was "noticeably dishevelled" at an EU summit, a minor political note but indicating ongoing internal EU dynamics. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF "РБК-Україна" reports on Russian intent to destabilize Moldova before EU summit, indicating awareness of Russian hybrid tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on EU opening accession talks with Moldova but not Ukraine highlights a potential diplomatic challenge for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Donetsk Attrition and Consolidation: RUF will intensify attritional ground assaults on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, leveraging the confirmed liberation of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske to further advance and consolidate gains. They will attempt to gain full fire control over UAF logistics routes into Konstantinovka and possibly initiate direct assaults on the city. The reported advance of "Vostok" Group towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates a high probability of expanding the Donetsk offensive westwards, threatening the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. This will be supported by persistent artillery (e.g., Msta-B, Grad) and drone attacks (e.g., Shahed) on UAF temporary deployment points and civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New RUF "Сливочный каприз" map for Konstantinovka-Yablonovka suggests continued localized, tactical pushes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF "Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" photo message reports FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, indicating that direct pressure on Dnipropetrovsk border areas will increase. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Northern Axis Persistent Pressure: Despite UAF claims of halting the advance, RUF will maintain significant pressure on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes with probing ground attacks, intensive KAB and tactical aviation strikes, and reconnaissance efforts. The objective will be to fix UAF reserves and expand the "buffer zone," even if a rapid breakthrough is not immediately achieved. Continued UAF drone activity into Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts will provoke RUF AD responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF "Anvar" detachment operations indicate continued efforts to secure border regions and clear buffer zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Сливочный каприз" map and "Воин DV" video confirm active RUF tactical planning and special operations in these areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo on Krasnolymansk direction suggests active defensive deployments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Medvedev's statement that RF will not allow UAF to reappear in Kursk Oblast confirms the intent to maintain and enforce a robust border buffer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Continued Strategic Attrition & Civilian Targeting: RUF will maintain a high tempo of precision and massed ballistic missile, cruise missile, and Shahed UAV strikes against critical infrastructure and urban centers, aiming to inflict mass civilian casualties and degrade UAF's warfighting capacity. Targeted strikes on alleged Western aid infrastructure (e.g., confirmed fire in Germany) will be amplified for IO purposes, with a heavy emphasis on blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD's continued use of FAB-500/1500 suggests a sustained air campaign against tactical and operational targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad's animated strike map for June 25-26 confirms high tempo and widespread RUF aerial strike operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF UAV attack on Troitske administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). KMVA video of missile strike aftermath in Kyiv highlights continued civilian targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF "Mash на Донбассе" reports that over 15 Ukrainian UAVs struck the administration of Troitske district in LPR, confirming UAF long-range drone activity and likely RUF will respond with more strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Escalated Cyber and Information Warfare: RUF will intensify cyberattacks and information operations, particularly focusing on internal security narratives within RF to justify repression and control information (e.g., Starlink issues, increased domestic controls, militarization of education, cultural censorship, new ID app for foreigners), and attempting to sow discord among Ukraine's international partners (e.g., blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties, highlighting EU internal disagreements, promoting narratives of Western decline, leveraging third-party diplomatic statements, AI-generated IO content). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF will continue to leverage diplomatic statements and high-level meetings (e.g., Putin's Belarus visit) to project an image of global influence and undermine Western unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will specifically push narratives of high Ukrainian desire for peace on the current front lines to influence internal Ukrainian decision-making and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA's video on Medvedev's political integration of war participants will be leveraged to project strength and unity domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will continue to use opportunistic IO from global events (e.g., B-2 bomber incident, Israeli-Iranian conflict developments) to discredit Western capabilities and divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will leverage confirmed prisoner exchanges to project a humanitarian image internationally, while internally emphasizing Russian gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will continue to push narratives of Ukraine's economic collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will continue internal security and anti-corruption narratives to demonstrate state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video "За базаром следят" reinforces this, and the "WarGonzo" videos reinforce morale/recruitment narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will continue to amplify narratives about Ukrainian special services using migrants for terror attacks within RF to justify domestic security crackdowns, and will likely frame internal social issues (like aid theft) as externally influenced or as requiring internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" will continue to push narrative of history revisionism in Ukraine to justify their actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Istanbul remains a platform for negotiations will be used to project a desire for peace, while maintaining maximalist demands. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will continue efforts to integrate Belarus politically and culturally (e.g., "Youth Capital of the Union State") to solidify the "Union State" narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF intelligence will continue to monitor and publicly comment on internal Western political developments (e.g., Trump's statements). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Alex Parker Returns" will continue to produce diverse IO content, including lighthearted or satirical elements, to broaden their appeal and influence. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" will continue to push narratives undermining Western militaries, particularly the British army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Synchronized Multi-Front Breakthrough & Strategic Paralysis: RUF launches a fully synchronized, large-scale offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk, and new thrust into Dnipropetrovsk) axes simultaneously, aiming for a rapid operational breakthrough and deep penetration, preceded by an intense, multi-layered saturation missile and drone attack on Kyiv and key UAF C2 nodes. This could include significant cyber and EW operations to disrupt UAF C2. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully)
North Korean Troop Deployment and Hybrid Escalation: Confirmed deployment of a significant number of North Korean troops to the Ukrainian front lines (e.g., for direct combat or logistical support) could significantly augment RUF manpower and prolong attritional warfare. This would be coupled with intensified hybrid operations across Europe to test NATO cohesion, potentially including physical attacks on Western military aid supply chains (e.g., repair facilities), or state-sponsored terrorism within NATO member states. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Immediate (Next 24-48 hours): RUF will attempt to confirm and consolidate gains in Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske, and press westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the confirmed position in Novoserhiivka. UAF must rapidly assess the new front lines and establish robust defensive positions to counter further RUF advances towards Udachne and Konstantinovka, and protect Dnipropetrovsk. UAF must also prepare for potential prisoner exchange. Expected continued RUF tactical artillery/drone strikes on UAF temporary deployment points in Donetsk, supported by FAB strikes. RUF will continue to push the narrative of UAF AD causing civilian harm in Kyiv. Expect continued RUF KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF decision point on redistribution of EW assets and deployment of new drone interceptor systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff provides new "operative information" update as of 16:00 26.06.2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF will likely respond to the German Ambassador summoning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will need to address implications of severe weather (hurricane) in Luhansk on operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will assess the impact of RUF's latest confirmed ground gains, particularly the first-person assault footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confirmed prisoner exchange will continue, impacting UAF humanitarian operations and future negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will need to respond to the RUF IO narrative regarding Ukraine's economy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will likely issue further official updates and visuals on the prisoner exchange to boost morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will continue to target RUF rail logistics in Zaporizhzhia, following recent successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will monitor the impact of Putin's visit to Belarus on RUF force generation/logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will continue to scale FPV drone production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will continue to leverage the returning POWs for morale and IO purposes, including further releases of emotional videos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will continue to highlight international training support (Operation Interflex). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will continue to leverage cultural diplomacy (film presentation in Paris). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Next 24-72 hours: Continued RUF pressure on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, with ongoing reconnaissance and probing attacks. UAF decision point on reserve posture based on RUF's continued commitment of forces to this axis. Continued AD alerts are highly probable. Expect increased TCC activity in Poltava and other regions. Decision point for UAF on how to integrate and deploy potential new Patriot systems if confirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF decision point on managing temporary logistics disruptions (e.g., Uhryniv checkpoint). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF internal security services will continue highly publicized counter-terrorism and counter-intelligence operations, including addressing narratives around aid theft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will assess initial reports and evidence of "Peklo" missile-drone use for future operational planning. (LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF will monitor the EU's opening of accession talks with Moldova on July 4, and its implications for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF will continue cross-border FPV drone strikes in Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Short-term (July-August): Decision point for UAF and international partners on response and adaptation strategies if North Korean troop deployment to Russia is confirmed. International diplomacy (Erdogan, EU) regarding peace talks and sanctions will continue, impacting political leverage. UAF will likely continue to demonstrate and expand its long-range drone strike capabilities. Lithuania's 3-year war projection will influence long-term planning. The high number of refusal-to-serve cases in RF will challenge RUF manpower generation in the mid-term. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). EU accession talks with Moldova will proceed, potentially impacting regional stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will intensify IO campaigns to capitalize on internal issues in Western countries and promote narratives of Ukrainian economic collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will continue efforts to solidify the "Union State" narrative with Belarus. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ongoing: RUF will continue missile/UAV strikes. UAF must continuously review and adapt AD asset allocation and force protection measures. Internal security challenges (drug trafficking, evasion schemes, corruption) will require sustained UAF attention. Demining efforts will be ongoing. UAF will continue to pursue accountability for war crimes. UAF will continue efforts to scale FPV drone production and development of indigenous long-range strike capabilities.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

Intelligence & Special Operations:
1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Validate the extent and implications of RUF control in Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske, focusing on any RUF intent to use these positions for a deeper thrust towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Task all-source ISR to assess RUF force disposition, intent, and vulnerabilities in these newly claimed territories, prioritizing identifying specific RUF units involved (e.g., Vostok Group, 14th Guards Brigade, 30th Separate Company) and their immediate objectives (e.g., blocking Udachne, pressing into Dnipropetrovsk). Pay close attention to footage of RUF infantry assaults (e.g., "Colonelcassad" video) and aerial bombardments (e.g., FAB strikes by 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army from "Воин DV") to identify new tactics or equipment. Specifically monitor for any RUF force grouping or forward deployment from Novoserhiivka towards the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, and their FPV drone and artillery tactics (e.g., Nikopol district attacks).
2. IMMEDIATE: Maintain continuous, high-fidelity ISR coverage on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes (GROUND PRIORITY #1). While Syrskyi reports stabilization, continued vigilance is paramount to detect any shifts in RUF force posture or intent for a renewed major offensive. Specifically monitor any signs of massing for breakthrough rather than attritional attacks, using all available aerial reconnaissance assets. Prioritize drone reconnaissance for RUF buffer zone clearance efforts (e.g., "Anvar" detachment) and tactical movements indicated by RUF maps. Monitor RUF defensive preparations in Krasnolymansk direction. Collect on Medvedev's statement regarding preventing UAF return to Kursk Oblast for insights into RUF border defense posture.
3. URGENT: Continue aggressive interdiction operations using FPV drones against RUF assault groups, armor (e.g., "Erzatz-BTRs"), and particularly vulnerable high-value targets like MLRS (e.g., "Grad"), leveraging the demonstrated effectiveness. Prioritize targeting of RUF protected mobility, ISR assets (e.g., Orlan-10s), and transport vehicles (e.g., those highlighted by "Воин DV"). Leverage successes against RUF trains in Zaporizhzhia and continue to target RUF rail logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continue and expand cross-border FPV drone strikes against RUF logistics and military infrastructure (e.g., gas stations in Belgorod Oblast).
4. HIGH: Expedite intelligence collection on North Korean troop deployment logistics, training, and potential integration into RUF forces. Identify their likely roles and vulnerabilities to develop targeted countermeasures.
5. HIGH: Continue deep strike operations against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets within RF territory, leveraging GUR's A-22 Foxbat and confirmed UAV attacks. Prioritize targets that support RUF missile and drone production and deployment, including those confirmed by UAF BDA (e.g., "Atlant AERO"). Intensify intelligence on possible sabotage/strikes against Western aid infrastructure (e.g., Germany), and conduct thorough BDA on the Erfurt incident. Verify capabilities and deployment of newly claimed "Peklo" missile-drones. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
6. MEDIUM: Intensify counter-intelligence efforts and internal security measures within Ukraine to mitigate threats from RUF agents and saboteurs, particularly in light of reported detentions in Novorossiysk and Moscow region, and continued efforts against evasion schemes (e.g., TCC inspections, "dead souls" corruption). Pay close attention to RUF claims of Ukrainian special services using migrants for terror attacks within RF. Publicize UAF successes in these areas to build public trust.
7. MEDIUM: Monitor internal RF social and economic indicators (e.g., survival course interest, wounded soldier reports, alcohol restrictions, militarization of education, conscript raids, cultural censorship, cases of refusal to serve, new cemetery graves, economic deterioration, motivation for military service due to poverty, migrant integration issues, aid theft affecting SVO participants) for insights into RUF public morale and potential pressure points. Assess impact of "RZD Passengers" app issues on logistics. Prioritize collection on RUF internal drone acquisition (e.g., "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" requests). Monitor RUF discussions on military volunteering and any internal controversies (e.g., "Zankogate"). Monitor the impact of Putin's Belarus visit and "Union State" initiatives on RUF capabilities and sustainment. Track Russian efforts at industrial self-sufficiency, particularly in aviation (e.g., MS-21-310).
Air Defense & Force Protection:
1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce air defense assets to protect areas threatened by newly established RUF positions in Donetsk Oblast, particularly routes and logistics hubs supporting Konstantinovka and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Nikopol district). Maintain high alert for continued missile and KAB strikes nationwide (as per "Colonelcassad" animated map), and respond effectively to UAF Air Force warnings. Prioritize defense against heavy aerial bombs (FAB-500/1500) and thermal-equipped Shaheds. Be prepared for potential UAV attacks on LPR administrative targets (Troitske).
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Mandate an immediate review and hardening of force protection protocols for all UAF and partner-nation logistics and aid facilities, both in Ukraine and in Europe, emphasizing dispersion and physical security against sabotage in light of the Kramatorsk and Erfurt incidents.
3. HIGH: Accelerate the operational integration of the F-16 fleet and new AD systems into the national air defense network, prioritizing their deployment to counter the most pressing threats on the Donetsk axis.
Ground Forces:
1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Consolidate and reinforce defensive lines immediately following RUF's confirmed gains in Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske. Focus on establishing strong, multi-layered defenses to prevent RUF from blocking UAF grouping in Udachne and pressing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
2. IMMEDIATE: Maintain maximum readiness on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Continue robust defensive operations, leveraging high-intensity training to sustain troop effectiveness against RUF pressure. Account for potential natural disaster impacts (e.g., Luhansk hurricane) on ground mobility. Ensure defensive preparations are robust, countering RUF IO that portrays them as incompetent.
3. HIGH: Address internal issues such as drug trafficking within military ranks to ensure force integrity and readiness. Implement preventative measures and support programs for personnel. Continue aggressive measures against evasion schemes, particularly TCC inspections. Act on findings from the Prosecutor General's investigation into "dead souls" to improve personnel accountability.
4. HIGH: Continue high-tempo, realistic training for ground forces, as demonstrated in Kharkiv, to ensure continuous improvement in combat skills and tactical adaptation, including specialized training like mine awareness. Continue to showcase effective tactical operations by assault units, particularly those in the Air Assault Forces ("Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України"). Leverage international training partnerships (Operation Interflex) to enhance UAF readiness.
5. MEDIUM: Accelerate demining efforts in liberated territories, leveraging successes in Kharkiv Oblast, to enhance civilian safety and enable future operations.
6. MEDIUM: Prioritize and accelerate the expansion of UAF drone units, particularly FPV capabilities, aiming to meet the stated target of 200,000 FPV drones by end of June. Ensure sufficient training, equipment, and logistical support for these expanding units.
Information Operations & Diplomatic:
1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Publicize UAF's major success in completely halting the RUF advance in Sumy Oblast (Syrskyi's statement) as a testament to UAF's strategic competence and resilience. Use this to counter RUF's narrative of an unstoppable offensive.
2. IMMEDIATE: Leverage the confirmed prisoner exchange as a significant IO victory for Ukraine, emphasizing the state's commitment to its defenders and humanitarian efforts. Utilize the emotional imagery and direct testimonials from UAF channels (Zelenskiy / Official, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, STERNENKO, RBK-Ukraine, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of POWs, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) to reinforce public morale and international support. Counter RUF attempts to frame the exchange as their goodwill.
3. IMMEDIATE: Counter RUF's claims of "liberating" Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, and Yalta by highlighting the significant RUF casualties incurred during these assaults (e.g., UAF drone footage from Pokrovsk) and portraying RUF gains as attritional and costly. Proactively refute RUF accusations of UAF war crimes (e.g., "Rarog UAV regiment burning homes of civilians"). Highlight RUF's attempt to humanize their troops through trivial messaging (e.g., "Fat Cat" story, wounded civilian narrative) as a diversion from their atrocities. Forcefully reject RUF attempts to blame UAF AD for civilian casualties in Kyiv, emphasizing RUF's responsibility for the original missile launch. Counter RUF "Операция Z" survey by emphasizing Ukrainian unity and resolve against Russian aggression. Leverage reports of low Russian soldier morale.
4. URGENT: Amplify international statements that reinforce the need for continued support and sanctions against Russia, particularly the Lithuanian President's call for an 18th sanctions package and his assessment of Russia's unwillingness to negotiate. Leverage Erdogan's statements about Trump joining talks as a sign of continued international engagement, without legitimizing Putin. Counter RUF's narrative regarding Serbian non-provision of arms by highlighting broader international support. Address the summoning of the German Ambassador to the RF MFA as an example of RF diplomatic aggression. Highlight EU accession talks with Moldova as positive regional development and expose Russian attempts to destabilize Moldova. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Proactively address the disparity in EU accession talks between Moldova and Ukraine (as reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) to manage public and international expectations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Utilize UAF "РБК-Україна" analysis on Putin-Trump dynamics to inform international audiences of geopolitical risks.
5. HIGH: Prepare and disseminate a robust IO response to any confirmed North Korean troop deployment to Russia, framing it as a sign of RUF desperation and international isolation, while simultaneously highlighting the risks of such cooperation and increased instability.
6. HIGH: Continue to showcase UAF's combat effectiveness and technological superiority (e.g., drone successes, aerial AD, effective AD warning systems, successful long-range drone strikes like A-22 Foxbat, claimed "Peklo" missile-drone, and successful trench assaults, advancements in FPV drone technology) through compelling visual content, bolstering both domestic and international confidence. Publicize successful UAF UAV attacks against RUF targets within occupied territory (e.g., Troitske administration, and cross-border strikes like Tatneft gas station). Emphasize the symbolic importance of asserting Ukrainian sovereignty over occupied territories through cultural and civic initiatives (e.g., stamps for Melitopol). (LOW CONFIDENCE). Highlight "Our War" film presentation in Paris as a testament to global solidarity.
7. MEDIUM: Maintain transparency regarding internal challenges (e.g., drug trafficking among military personnel, evasion schemes, customs corruption, temporary checkpoint disruptions, military corruption) and demonstrate proactive measures to address them, enhancing public trust and countering RUF disinformation. Support public understanding of the electoral process during/after martial law. Highlight successful civilian governance and disaster recovery efforts, including demining and financial aid to affected families, and "Safe Community" initiatives. Leverage recognition for fallen heroes (e.g., Maksym Yemets) to boost national morale. Highlight the role of civilian volunteers and aid workers in supporting the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Publicly address economic fluctuations with reassuring messages of stability and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
8. MEDIUM: Counter RUF narratives (e.g., Peskov's statements on incomparable conflicts or rejection of "peace through strength," "Finland as new Ukraine" narrative, AI-generated IO, B-2 bomber incident, claims about Ukraine's economy, RUF's historical revisionism, their attempts to portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, RUF-Belarus "Union State" propaganda, and narratives of British army crisis) by emphasizing Russia's aggressive posture and its isolation from international norms, rather than engaging in direct rhetorical debates that legitimize their claims. Highlight the deteriorating Russian economy as a sign of weakness.