Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF MoD officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko. RUF source "Воин DV" provides video of RUF stormtroopers claiming liberation of Shevchenko. RUF source "Басурин о главном" provides video confirming liberation of Yalta (DNR) by "Vostok" Group. UAF General Staff reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction, confirming active combat in these claimed areas. UAF drone footage shows dozens of RUF casualties from a "meat grinder" assault near Pokrovsk. RUF FPV drone strikes claimed destruction of an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms RUF control of Novoserhiivka in the Pokrovsk area, stating its proximity to the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. DeepState confirms map updates for this area. RUF "Операция Z" provides aerial drone footage confirming combat operations and destruction in SHEVCHENKO (DNR), displaying Russian flags on captured structures and damaged civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video depicts 152-mm Msta-B howitzers of the 90th Guards Tank Division destroying an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk axis). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports RUF forces used "Geranium-2" (Shahed) to strike a temporary UAF deployment point near Novoekonomicheskoe in DNR, providing aerial video showing significant damage to a building complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the Ivan Franko Group, targeting its fuel tank and rocket guides. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This corroborates RUF claims on Shevchenko and indicates continued RUF pressure across multiple axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area. NEW: RUF claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone strike on a vehicle crossing and pumping station over the Aidar River in Luhansk are being used by RUF sources to confirm a new Ukrainian weapon system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF claim, LOW CONFIDENCE for visual confirmation of "Peklo" use).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 22 dead (latest update) and nearly 300 wounded. TASS reports RUF "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetropsk Oblast. NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OGA confirms state initiatives for financial aid to families who lost relatives due to Russian attacks, highlighting ongoing civilian impact and support efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of Russian troops in the border areas of Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped this week, and the contact line is stabilized, re-engaging 50,000 Russian troops. The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 14 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure. RUF source "AV БогомаZ" claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA corroborates this claim. RUF source "Два майора" provides video of an aerial reconnaissance footage in the Sumy direction, showing explosions along a tree line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" reports an attack by enemy (UAF) on a gas station in Volokonovsky district, Belgorod Oblast, showing fire and smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage showing "Anvar" detachment clearing the buffer zone in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from "Ukrainian militants," showing drone reconnaissance, artillery impacts, and damaged buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city. RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes a photo message claiming to show the Kharkiv direction with overlaid polygons and arrows, likely indicating troop movements or control zones. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum, emphasizing continued civilian governance and security initiatives despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian infantry of the 58th Motorized Brigade undergoing training on identifying and understanding various anti-tank mines (TM-46, TM-57, TM-62M, TMD-B). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. UAF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" provides video showing a recent attack on a Russian fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with RUF soldiers attempting to shoot down FPV drones. Claims four fuel tankers and a vehicle with two RUF sergeants were destroyed. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration marked Day of Crimean Tatar Flag, signalling continued support for de-occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms new drone interceptor systems beginning operation in the region to counter enemy UAVs, indicating enhanced AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 2 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports successful Lancet strike on UAF boat in Dnipro River from Orlan-10 reconnaissance.
• Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. Former Odesa Mayor Ruslan Bodelan died. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news, but potential for local political impact). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides video of an explosion and fire in Odessa during a night attack, claiming it "killed a flower bed." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kyiv Oblast: RUF "Операция Z" and "НгП раZVедка" claim that destroyed multi-story buildings and casualties in Kyiv are a result of UAF air defense operations and falling debris from shot-down missiles. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports completion of emergency recovery work at the attack site in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" shares video of a person walking in an urban courtyard in Kyiv, with a timestamp of June 21, 2025, suggesting continued RUF surveillance or information gathering on Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" pushes a survey result claiming 72.3% of Ukrainians believe the war should end along the current front line, indicating continued RUF IO targeting Ukrainian public opinion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
  • Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar.
• RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. Internal security concerns noted with arrests of alleged foreign agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg. New reports confirm the photographer sentenced to 16 years for state treason for transferring a publicly available book on bunkers. TASS reports the detention of a woman in Novorossiysk for transmitting data on the Russian Navy and air defense to Ukraine. RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports a repair facility for Ukrainian military equipment in Erfurt, Germany, potentially damaged by fire. "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025." UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video and photos of burning military trucks at a military facility in Erfurt, Germany, explicitly stating it's a Bundeswehr parking lot that was burned. This corroborates the RUF claim of targeting military equipment in Germany. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Fighterbomber" shows photo of "mysterious signs drawn by Air Force pilots in Belgorod Oblast," possibly related to operational markings or morale. (LOW CONFIDENCE - ambiguous imagery). TASS reports the "RZD Passengers" application is temporarily unavailable due to technical reasons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - potential disruption to rail transport/logistics in RF). TASS and "Два майора" report law enforcement in Leningrad Oblast interrupted a "ritual" where participants buried two women alive, reflecting unusual internal security incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - highlights internal social/security issues, not directly military). "Север.Реалии" reports that St. Petersburg will spend 148 million rubles to equip classes for a new subject, "Fundamentals of Homeland Security," including grenade and Makarov pistol models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates a militarization of education/society). "Новости Москвы" reports children in Moscow Oblast are prohibited from being near bodies of water without adult supervision, indicating increased public safety measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects broader societal security concerns). TASS reports an investigation and arrest warrant request for a man who threw a child on the floor at Sheremetyevo airport, indicating public safety/law enforcement activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - non-military, but reflects domestic security issues). RUF "Colonelcassad" reports an FPV drone strike by GrV "Zapad" on five militants and a pickup truck near Bohuslavka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" claims a fake report of military action involving Pacific Fleet exercises in Kamchatka attacking a fisherman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, countering negative narratives). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows an individual arrested in Novorossiysk, confessing to providing information to Ukrainian sources on Ukrainian military object locations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD releases drone footage depicting "powerful air strikes" by Russian Aerospace Forces using FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs on temporary deployment areas of enemy aircraft, showing multiple explosions in a village/settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," and that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin will meet with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve have been filed in Russian courts since the start of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS reports a man who threw a child at Sheremetyevo Airport pleaded guilty, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes unrelated to military operations but reflecting social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Fighterbomber" posts a photo of an aircraft on an airfield with a caption about "Animal and plant world of airfields," indicating a focus on mundane aspects of airbase life. (LOW CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a photo message of a Russian Presidential Decree, indicating formal state actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS reports Putin prolonged the right to draft deferment for Old Believers until 2030, a social/religious policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk, possibly indicating increased military casualties being buried. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos implying detentions and control, possibly related to internal security operations or counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Recent heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, affecting air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• The confirmed fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Transbaikalia due to natural fires implies dry conditions and fire hazards in some parts of RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• A reported fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, could release hazardous materials, impacting the local environment if proximate to logistical routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video from Odessa (night attack) shows significant fire, implying dry conditions or effective incendiary targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kharkiv Oblast Governor's report of demining operations underscores the continued environmental hazard posed by unexploded ordnance and mines across the front lines and liberated territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations, notably on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko, which is now independently corroborated by UAF sources for Novoserhiivka and visually confirmed for Shevchenko by RUF footage ("Операция Z" and "Colonelcassad"). This represents a significant advance and potential threat to UAF forces in Udachne and towards Konstantinovka. RUF continues to consolidate gains in areas like Yalta and Dyleyevka, and the claimed Komar. UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks. UAF drone footage near Pokrovsk confirms high RUF casualties from "meat grinder" assaults, indicating continued attritional tactics by RUF and effective UAF defensive fires. RUF source "ТАСС" states "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RUF artillery and drone strikes on UAF positions and temporary deployment points (e.g., Novoekonomicheskoe) continue. RUF video from "Два майора" shows the evacuation of wounded from the Line of Contact (LBS), confirming active combat and ongoing casualties, likely in this area given other reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" video confirms successful FPV drone strike against RUF "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes targeting northern Donetsk, indicating continued RUF air support for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" releases video of 78th Separate Assault Regiment conducting trench assaults and clearing operations, indicating active UAF offensive/counter-offensive actions on specific sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction. NEW: Claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone use against a crossing point and pumping station on the Aidar River, if confirmed, indicate UAF long-range strike capabilities against RUF infrastructure. (LOW CONFIDENCE on weapon type, HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting of strike).
• Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports that the advance of RUF troops in Sumy Oblast has been completely stopped, and the contact line is stabilized, effectively re-engaging the reported 50,000 RUF personnel. This is a critical UAF success in mitigating the northern threat. UAF General Staff reports continued intense defensive work in the North Slobozhansky direction. RUF continues probing attacks, KAB strikes, and reconnaissance UAV activity. RUF sources "ASTRA" and "AV БогомаZ" confirm RUF AD activity against Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. RUF video from "Два майора" indicates active ground combat/reconnaissance in Sumy direction. Kharkiv Governor's participation in security forums underscores continued civilian governance despite proximate threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video indicates ongoing mine awareness training for infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" drone footage of "Anvar" detachment operations in Sumy/Chernihiv buffer zones suggests continued RUF efforts to secure border areas and eliminate perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports successful demining operations, indicating UAF efforts to secure civilian areas and potential future operational zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued RUF aerial pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes and bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels. UAF demonstrated successful interdiction of RUF fuel trains in occupied territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Zaporizhzhia OMA announces the deployment of new drone interceptor systems, indicating an adaptive UAF AD posture to counter RUF UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 2 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and has disconnected mobile internet in occupied areas. RUF continues ISR and strike missions with Orlan-10 and Lancet drones.
• Odesa Oblast: RUF conducted mass UAV strikes from the Black Sea, which were largely neutralized by UAF AD. UAF Air Force of Ukraine issued a warning, suggesting potential ongoing or imminent air threats. RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows a strike/explosion in Odessa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kyiv Oblast: RUF sources (Операция Z, НгП раZVедка) are pushing the narrative that UAF AD is responsible for civilian damage and casualties in Kyiv. UAF reports completion of recovery work. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, UAF response). RUF "Два майора" shared Kyiv urban footage suggests continued RUF ISR or information gathering on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" claiming high percentage of Ukrainians want peace on current front lines is an IO effort to influence public opinion and decision-making. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Territory: Widespread UAF drone activity continues deep inside Russia, targeting military industrial facilities and railway infrastructure. RF AD remains highly active. Internal security concerns are evident with continued arrests of alleged foreign agents and saboteurs, and ongoing counter-sabotage operations, alongside significant disruptions to civilian aviation. FSB Director Naryshkin's statement indicates a hardening stance on diplomatic negotiations. Reports suggest North Korea may send additional troops to Russia in July/August. RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports on a repair facility for Ukrainian military equipment in Erfurt, Germany, and claims military trucks were engulfed in flames, implying successful strikes or sabotage against Western aid infrastructure. UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" confirms a fire at a German Bundeswehr military object in Erfurt with military trucks on fire, lending credence to the targeting of Western aid. RZD Passenger app unavailable points to potential technical issues in RF railway systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). St. Petersburg preparing "Homeland Security" classes with military mock-ups shows a societal militarization trend. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video shows an attack on a gas station in Belgorod Oblast, indicating continued cross-border strikes by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows an FPV drone strike on a pickup truck with personnel near Bohuslavka, implying effective RUF anti-personnel drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows detention of an individual in Novorossiysk for allegedly providing data on Ukrainian military objects to Russian sources via Telegram, highlighting ongoing counter-intelligence operations against Ukrainian elements within RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video depicting FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" underscores RUF's continued reliance on heavy aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve, indicating internal issues with military personnel retention in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" provides videos of individuals being detained or controlled, suggesting ongoing internal security operations against perceived threats or dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Recent Intelligence Updates

• RUF MoD officially claims the liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko in DNR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states UAF has completely stopped the RUF advance in Sumy Oblast and stabilized the contact line, effectively re-engaging 50,000 RUF troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF drone footage shows dozens of RUF casualties from a "meat grinder" assault near Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF source "Colonelcassad" shares photo message featuring "another selection of mercenaries destroyed by Russian troops during the special military operation," implying visual confirmation of killed foreign fighters. (LOW CONFIDENCE - No image provided for verification, but indicates RUF IO theme.)
• RUF source "Новости Москвы" reports a sharp increase in interest in survival courses in Moscow, rising twofold in a year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates increased public anxiety regarding security or stability in RF). "Новости Москвы" confirms the Moscow Monorail will cease operations on June 28, 2025 (civilian transport change, low military relevance). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" reports a woman kissing an orangutan at Moscow Zoo (no military relevance). (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "AV БогомаZ" states "Ukrainian Nazis continue their treacherous attacks." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, dehumanization and justification).
• RUF source "Два майора" states "Lithium is ours." (LOW CONFIDENCE - Unclear military relevance; potentially an internal reference or cryptic message). "Два майора" celebrates its third anniversary (no military relevance). (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• ASTRA reports searches and detentions in the administration of Surgut. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates internal RF anti-corruption or political repression activity). ASTRA reports blocking of "American Dad" for "LGBT propaganda" in Russia (cultural censorship, no direct military relevance). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA is reportedly conducting a collection for employee salaries. (LOW CONFIDENCE - funding for an independent media outlet, indirect relevance.)
• RUF source "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a severely wounded soldier without toe-fingers is not being released from the front line. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates potential RUF disregard for wounded personnel and sustained pressure on frontline forces). "Север.Реалии" corroborates this with a more detailed account of a severely wounded soldier returned to the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports continued raids on conscripts and advises on self-protection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates ongoing conscription pressure in RF). NEW: "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a new sector of graves at a cemetery in Izhevsk, indicating increased RUF casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "РБК-Україна" quotes Lithuanian President saying he "sees no light at the end of the tunnel" regarding the war's end due to Russia's unwillingness to negotiate, and calls for an 18th sanctions package. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Highlights continued international pressure on Russia). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated the war in Ukraine will likely not end in the next three years. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - long-term outlook). "РБК-Україна" reports on a program for cheap housing loans ("єОселя") in Ukraine (civilian news, no direct military relevance). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports Shmyhal instructed the redistribution of EW systems to frontline regions, indicating a focus on countering RUF drone threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Военкор Котенок" shares a photo of "Dragon's Teeth" (anti-tank obstacles) "aimlessly piled up by the enemy at a gas station in Yunakivka (Sumy direction)." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, aiming to portray UAF incompetence in defensive preparations). "Военкор Котенок" reports an EU Commissioner (Kubilius) calling for a "drone armada" in case of Russian attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, highlighting perceived Western fear). RUF "Военкор Котенок" posts a photo of a billboard in Tel Aviv promoting "Abraham Alliance," indicating continued RUF interest in Middle East geopolitics. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА" reports important decisions adopted at the Kharkiv Oblast Council session for regional development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian governance continues despite conflict). Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleg Sinegubov participated in the "Safe Community" All-Ukrainian Forum. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - civilian governance/security continuity). Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports over 260 hectares of territory demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Операция Z" video reports the detention of an "enemy agent" in Novorossiysk who was collecting data on the Black Sea Fleet and air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms continued counter-intelligence operations). RUF "Басурин о главном" provides a video confirming FSB operation detaining an individual suspected of providing information on Ukrainian representatives' locations/vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Операция Z" reiterates the claim that destruction in Kyiv is due to UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). "Операция Z" provides photo and video content related to the fire on Bundeswehr military equipment in Germany, reinforcing their claim. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" presents a survey claiming 72.3% of Ukrainians support ending the war along the current front line, a significant IO push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video reports that an attempt to commit a terrorist act against a Russian serviceman was thwarted in the Moscow region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, highlights internal security threats and counter-terrorism efforts). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video requesting assistance for acquiring Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones for reconnaissance and frontline support, showing individuals in military attire with a Russian-Serbian flag. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal funding efforts). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video showing the arrest of a woman in Novorossiysk who confessed to sharing information on Ukrainian military objects. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF counter-intelligence).
• UAF source "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports a drug trafficking group exposed in Sumy Oblast, with military personnel among clients. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Highlights internal challenges and criminal activity affecting UAF personnel). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports SBU and National Police detained organizers of evasion schemes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) will begin inspections of educational institutions in Poltava Oblast to identify draft evaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports that Presidential and Parliamentary elections cannot be held on the same day unless legislation changes, as per Deputy Head of Central Election Commission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - electoral process/post-war planning). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on US preconditions for negotiations with Iran, citing Israeli media (indirect relevance, but affects geopolitical landscape). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports temporary suspension of vehicle registration at Uhryniv checkpoint due to database technical issues, indicating a logistical disruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video shows a Ukrainian fighter pilot "Denfix" using an air-to-air missile to destroy a Russian "Shahed" drone in the night sky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF content, demonstrates successful aerial AD). UAF source "РБК-Україна" provides the same video, confirming a MiG-29 pilot destroying a Shahed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Ukraine may receive 5 more Patriot systems from the US (unofficial info). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports RUF claims first use of Ukrainian "Peklo" missile-drones against a vehicle crossing and pumping station over the Aidar River in Luhansk, indicating a new UAF long-range strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF claim of use, LOW CONFIDENCE for independent verification of "Peklo" type). NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides photo/video of damaged structures in a rural area, suggesting recent impacts, possibly military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" provides video of drone wreckage/unexploded ordnance, suggesting effective AD or operational losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" confirms Russian army liberated Novosergeevka and Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF official claim). "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reiterates the EU Commissioner's call for a drone armada against Russia, using it to highlight EU fear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). NEW: RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" posts a photo of a Russian Presidential Decree about mass heroism, valor, steadfastness, and courage, likely related to military awards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF MoD releases a photo message on "progress of special military operation as of 26 June 2025." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF official report). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts the RF MoD daily briefing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "MoD Russia" video shows Msta-B howitzers of the 90th Guards Tank Division operating in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" provides FPV drone footage of GrV "Zapad" striking militants and a pickup truck. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" addresses a "fake" report about Russian military actions in Kamchatka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Colonelcassad" posts drone footage of "Anvar" detachment operations in Sumy/Chernihiv buffer zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video shows FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Colonelcassad" provides objective control footage from 57th Brigade confirming full control over Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" video shows Ukrainian soldiers undergoing intense training, including obstacle courses and tactical movements, with instructors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF content, demonstrates ongoing training and readiness). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video of three Ukrainian soldiers with firearms and a three-wheeled motorcycle, indicating military operations or reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF content). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports the first confirmed use of Ukrainian "Peklo" missile-drone (claims not verified visually). (LOW CONFIDENCE - claims of new weapons need verification). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts video of damaged drone/unexploded ordnance, possibly an RUF drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video of people queuing for food at a forum, captioned "🤦‍♂🇺🇦," indicating a critical view of internal RF affairs or PR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "STERNENKO" reports North Korea may send additional troops to Russia for the war in July or August, citing South Korean intelligence (Yonhap). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Potential major strategic development). ASTRA also reports this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Операция Z" also reports on this, citing South Korean intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "STERNENKO" posts a video of a drone strike on military vehicles, clearly identifying it as a UAF operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "STERNENKO" reports Russians admitted to sabotage in Germany concerning military equipment, corroborating earlier reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• TASS reports Erdogan stated he expects a meeting of leaders for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine "as soon as possible." UAF sources "РБК-Україна" and "STERNENKO" corroborate Erdogan's statement that Trump is willing to join peace talks in Turkey if Putin is present. "Оперативний ЗСУ" also reports this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Diplomatic development). TASS reports a video of Trump returning from the NATO summit set to Usher's "Hey Daddy" (low military relevance, but IO context from White House). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports funeral of Russian actress Natalia Tenyakova (civilian news). (LOW CONFIDENCE). TASS reports new Serbian PM stated no weapons will be supplied to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates continued RUF influence in Balkans). TASS reports Peskov stated that the date of the third round of "Istanbul" prisoner exchanges will be determined after the completion of current exchanges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the issue of "threats to RF" from Europe was not raised in talks between Putin and Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin will meet with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ongoing RF diplomatic efforts). TASS reports Maria Zakharova is holding a weekly briefing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ongoing RUF IO). NEW: TASS provides video of Peskov's statements before the Minsk summit, which discusses NATO expansion and failed negotiations, framing Russia's actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Putin created an organizing committee for the first Russian-Arab summit, further indicating diplomatic outreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Старше Эдды" reports a facility in Erfurt, Germany, used for repairing Ukrainian military equipment, and provides videos suggesting it has been targeted, showing military trucks on fire. (LOW CONFIDENCE on cause/attribution; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO intent to claim attacks on Western aid infrastructure). UAF source "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" corroborates with video/photos of burning military trucks at a Bundeswehr military object in Erfurt, Germany. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" provides a text update on the military equipment fire in Germany, reinforcing the RUF narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a photo message stating "Assault troopers are not meat," an internal morale/IO message countering perceptions of high losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• TASS reports Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. TASS and "Alex Parker Returns" report Ayatollah Khamenei congratulated the people on victory in conflict with Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Regional instability, RUF IO potential). Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, and Kotsnews continue to report on Iran's claims of victory over Israel and the US, and minimization of damage to Iranian nuclear facilities. TASS reports Iran doesn't rule out repeat strikes on US bases. RUF "Colonelcassad" provides video showing alleged destruction of an Israeli IAI Heron UAV by Iranian forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "STERNENKO" also reports Iran claims victory over Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Alex Parker Returns" shares the White House video of Trump, amplifying RUF's IO against NATO leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Alex Parker Returns" provides a video of soldiers loading into a pickup truck. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts photo message with a caption emphasizing "beautiful and accurate language," likely an IO reference. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts photo message quoting Finnish President about Ukraine's NATO membership prospects, with a derogatory caption targeting Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns posts photo message containing a derogatory statement about Zelenskyy, quoting "interesting statements" from "military dictator Zelenskyy." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). NEW: "Alex Parker Returns" posts a video claiming Iran demonstrates the elimination of Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister, intensifying "combat operations in neural networks" (deepfake/IO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports on US/Israel THAAD system costs in defending against Iran, likely for IO comparison or cost analysis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Воин DV" provides video allegedly from "Ukrainian official agitprop" showing "Rarog UAV regiment burning homes of civilians." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF IO intent to accuse UAF of war crimes/incendiary attacks on civilian structures; LOW CONFIDENCE on authenticity of UAF "official agitprop" or justification for actions). RUF "Воин DV" posts video of drone operations by the 39th Motor Rifle Brigade's "Kaira" UAV Detachment, showing explosions/impacts in a wooded area, likely targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports a prisoner exchange is expected today. UAF "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" reports a meeting with families of 24th Mechanized Brigade POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Humanitarian/diplomatic development). RUF source "НгП раZVедка" also reports that a prisoner exchange is expected today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• TASS reports Naryshkin stated cooperation between RF and Chinese special services is expanding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Signals deepening strategic alliance). TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking to ban Kizaru's songs for drug propaganda (internal social control). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "Alex Parker Returns" claims UAF Air Force Communications Chief Yuri Ihnat officially admitted that a missile hitting a Kyiv high-rise during a Russian attack occurred after it was shot down by air defense. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF IO attempting to shift blame for civilian casualties to UAF AD; requires UAF confirmation/refutation).
• UAF Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) issues a general warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates ongoing or imminent air threat). UAF Air Force issues a general "Attention!" warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• GUR reports showing the launch of a long-range A-22 Foxbat drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF source "Два майора" posts image message about "Fat Cat" upset by strike on PVD (RUF IO, humanizing RUF personnel, victim narrative). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO)
• TASS reports Mikhail Boyarsky (famous Russian actor) hospitalized. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news)
• RUF source "Новости Москвы" reports alcohol sales restricted to 13:00-15:00 in Moscow region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates potential internal social control measures) NEW: RUF "Новости Москвы" advertises cashback for fast food, civilian content but indicative of consumer economy. (LOW CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Новости Москвы" reports launch of new app "ruID" for foreigners in Russia, likely for internal control/registration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF source "STERNENKO" reports 93rd ZRADn (anti-aircraft missile regiment) shot down 6 reconnaissance UAVs, showing drone footage of operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• ASTRA reports European Parliament to vote on no-confidence in von der Leyen over vaccine scandal. (LOW CONFIDENCE - broad international political news, indirect military relevance)
• RUF source "WarGonzo" announces premiere of RT documentary "Donbas. Terek Brigade" at SVO veterans' gathering in Dagestan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, propaganda for domestic consumption). RUF "WarGonzo" posts video of a wounded individual recounting being caught in an explosion in a cafe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, victim narrative). NEW: RUF "WarGonzo" claims liberation of Shevchenko in DNR, corroborating other RUF sources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF source "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" promotes "hundreds" marathon, likely a fundraising or combat initiative. (LOW CONFIDENCE - internal RUF military blogging, ambiguous relevance) NEW: RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of FPV drone strikes by RUF forces, indicating continued tactical drone use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video also shows a Ukrainian armored medical evacuation vehicle, providing imagery of UAF assets and their vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF "Рыбарь" references "expansion of the bridgehead" in text, implying RUF ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF military blogging, relevant to ground operations). RUF "Рыбарь" also discusses the need for something that should replace "Mask's forbidden stuff," likely referencing Starlink, and stating that its absence poses more risks than its use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF assessment of technological needs/limitations). "Рыбарь" posts about "Future Terrorist Attacks in Syria" with mugshots. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates RUF focus on regional security, counter-terrorism narrative). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" posts videos of people being detained, possibly related to internal security or counter-sabotage operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RUF "Игорь Артамонов" posts about a family with triplets; irrelevant for military analysis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news).
• RUF "Филолог в засаде" discusses political/legislative issues in Russia; irrelevant for military analysis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - internal political news).
• UAF General Prosecutor's Office announced reorganization of the Department of Criminal Policy and Investment Protection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - internal governmental restructuring). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reports exposing a customs officer who helped smuggle currency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• "Север.Реалии" reports Russian court extended house arrest for Lev Shlosberg in Pskov (internal political repression). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Север.Реалии" reports over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve in Russian courts since the war began. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports that fallen warrior Maksym Yemets from Kosiv was awarded "Hero of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF morale/recognition).
• RUF "Mash на Донбассе" posts a video of a successful medical procedure on a pregnant woman. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news).
• RUF "Глеб Никитин" (Nizhny Novgorod Governor) posts photos and videos from the opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod, emphasizing expanded diplomatic presence and regional coverage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - signals strengthening Russia-Belarus ties and regional influence).
• UAF "РБК-Україна" reports on a business developing postal services near the front line, implying civilian logistical resilience. (LOW CONFIDENCE - civilian news).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 50,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, despite UAF reports these advances have been halted. Demonstrated sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including confirmed capture of Yalta and Dyleyevka, and newly confirmed capture of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko (confirmed by UAF and RUF visuals/claims). This reinforces control and potential deep thrusts. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF continues sustained assault on Chasiv Yar, claiming control of main part of the city. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF Airborne Forces are reportedly striking UAF rear areas in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) corroborates high RUF losses from FPV drones during assault tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" provides visual confirmation of RUF stormtroopers during operations in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Басурин о главном" provides visual confirmation of BM-21 'Grad' MLRS in action near Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports "Vostok" Group is actively advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a potential new axis of advance following gains in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF video from "Два майора" (Sumy direction) indicates continued reconnaissance/fire missions on that axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF photo from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (Kharkiv direction) suggests ongoing operational planning/activity. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" video confirms active combat and Russian control in Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF MoD video confirms 152-mm Msta-B howitzer operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Два майора" video shows evacuation from LBS, confirming ongoing ground combat and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" reference to "expansion of the bridgehead" indicates continued ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" video shows an FPV drone strike on UAF personnel and a pickup. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Colonelcassad" drone footage of "Anvar" detachment clearing buffer zones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts confirms active ground operations to secure border areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" drone footage of 39th Motor Rifle Brigade operations shows active targeting and impacts in wooded areas, confirming continued small-unit tactical engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, near Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), corroborating RUF ground gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of RUF FPV drone strikes, demonstrating continued tactical drone integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers. Production of Iskander missiles reportedly increased with Chinese assistance. Continued delivery of new Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft enhances tactical aviation. RUF is deploying "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations and new "Molniya" loitering munitions. They demonstrate effective counter-UAV capabilities, claiming 50 UAVs destroyed, including 6 over Bryansk Oblast. RUF Aerospace Forces continue large-scale aerial bombardments with FAB-1500s. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" and "РБК-Україна" shows an RUF Shahed being destroyed by an air-to-air missile, confirming RUF's continued reliance on Shahed drones and UAF's effective air-to-air countermeasures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" video shows effective reconnaissance (Orlan-10) and strike (Lancet) against UAF boat on Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Colonelcassad" presents a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 25-26 June 2025" indicating persistent, widespread RUF aerial activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS video confirms Shahed strike on UAF temporary deployment point in Novoekonomicheskoe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows a strike and fire in Odessa, confirming continued long-range strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video depicting FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" confirms continued extensive use of heavy guided aerial bombs for area denial and destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating continued close air support for ground advances and degradation of UAF rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus. Actively exploits geopolitical events (NATO summit, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) to sow discord and discredit Western support for Ukraine. Persistent dehumanization of Ukrainians ("Ukrainian Nazis"). Strong focus on internal security narratives to justify repression and control information (Starlink ban, internet outages, arrests of alleged foreign agents/saboteurs, expanded counter-terrorism investigations, new arrest in Novorossiysk, thwarted terrorist attack in Podmoskovye). Continues to project strength and self-sufficiency. RUF Defense Minister Belousov leverages SCO platform to emphasize global instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Военкор Котенок" highlighting "Dragon's Teeth" mismanagement aims to portray UAF incompetence and boost RUF morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Воин DV" attempts to use UAF footage to accuse UAF of war crimes (burning civilian homes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). "Alex Parker Returns" attempts to discredit UAF Air Defense by claiming UAF admitted to AD striking civilian building in Kyiv. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports on expansion of RF-China special services cooperation, signaling deepening strategic ties and potential for shared hybrid capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF source "Два майора" posts human interest story about a cat at a PVD to elicit sympathy for RUF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF source "WarGonzo" promoting "Donbas. Terek Brigade" film enhances patriotic narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF source "Новости Москвы" reporting alcohol restrictions suggests ongoing social engineering/control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "WarGonzo" video features wounded civilian narrative, intended to elicit sympathy for victims of conflict, likely to shift blame or humanize suffering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Басурин о главном" video confirming FSB detentions reinforces internal security/counter-intelligence narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF TASS reports Lavrov's statement on NATO defense spending, minimizing its impact on RF security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO for external audience). "Север.Реалии" report on "Homeland Security" classes in St. Petersburg indicates a systematic militarization of education for long-term ideological control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) heavily pushes narrative that UAF AD is responsible for civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Colonelcassad" publishes a "fake news" disclaimer regarding military actions in Kamchatka, indicating attempts to control information and counter negative narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "Рыбарь" discusses "future terrorist attacks in Syria," possibly for internal security consumption or to justify RUF presence/actions abroad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Serbian PM's statement on no weapons to Ukraine, leveraging diplomatic ties for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Peskov stated that the conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are "incomparable," downplaying Ukraine's significance relative to regional instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Peskov's statement that "peace through strength" is not applicable to Russia, indicating a rejection of Western deterrence concepts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns continues to amplify derogatory language against Zelenskyy and spread anti-NATO/anti-Western narratives, demonstrating persistent RUF IO aimed at undermining Ukrainian leadership and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" is promoting a survey indicating high Ukrainian desire for peace on current front lines, a clear IO effort to influence Ukrainian political will. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" pushes a narrative of NATO turning Finland into "a new Ukraine," aiming to fuel anti-NATO sentiment and justify RUF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns uses AI-generated content (deepfakes) to depict "liquidation" of Israeli leaders, demonstrating sophisticated and aggressive IO tactics to influence perceptions of regional conflict and distract. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Старше Эдды" posts a message defending "stormtroopers" from being considered "meat," indicating a response to internal concerns about attritional tactics and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" publishes videos suggesting internal security operations, which serve to project control and deter dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition and Territorial Gain: RUF aims to continue attritional warfare to deplete UAF manpower and resources, while simultaneously seizing key strategic and tactical terrain, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, to consolidate control and create buffer zones. The reported "liberation" of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko (now corroborated by UAF/RUF visuals) reinforces this, and the advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast signals intent for deeper operational penetration.
  • Degrade UAF Warfighting Capacity: Continued targeting of UAF defense industry, C2 nodes, and logistics aims to directly reduce Ukraine's ability to resist. Continued drone/missile attacks on civilian infrastructure and personnel aim to break Ukrainian will. Targeting Western aid infrastructure (e.g., in Germany) aims to deter future supplies.
  • Sow Discord and Undermine Support: RUF will persist in its information campaigns to erode international support for Ukraine and destabilize Ukraine internally. This includes attempting to shift blame for civilian casualties to UAF AD.
  • Secure Border Regions: Continue efforts to push UAF forces back from the Russian border, as seen in the Sumy direction, to create a perceived security buffer.
  • Exploit Global Instability: RUF will continue to leverage geopolitical events (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, Putin-UAE meeting) to divert international attention and resources from Ukraine and portray a weakening Western influence.
• Courses of Action:
  • MLCOA: Continued high-intensity attritional offensives in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk axes), consolidating newly gained territory (Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Vilne Pole, Burlatsky, Kamyanske) and pressing towards Konstantinovka and potentially west into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Sustained, heavy KAB and missile strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets nationwide. Continued probing and fixing attacks on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes to tie up UAF reserves, but without a major breakthrough if Syrskyi's assessment holds. Intensified counter-intelligence and IO campaigns, including efforts to sow distrust in UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • MDCOA: A synchronized, multi-front offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk, designed to overwhelm UAF defenses and achieve rapid operational gains, supported by a saturation missile and drone campaign on strategic UAF targets, including targeting Western military aid hubs. Potential deployment of North Korean troops for specific, high-attrition roles. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • New Official Claims of Capture: Formal declaration of "liberation" of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast, with Novoserhiivka confirmed by UAF sources and Shevchenko visually confirmed by RUF visual. This represents a significant advance and potential threat to UAF forces in Udachne. NEW: UAF DeepState corroborates RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske, confirming the breadth of RUF territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Intensified Counter-Insurgency/Counter-Terrorism Operations: New reports of thwarting "terrorist attacks" in Moscow region and arrests of agents in Novorossiysk, including video confirmation of FSB detentions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Arrest of individual in Novorossiysk for sharing information on Ukrainian military objects, confirming continued RUF counter-intelligence efforts and a focus on disrupting Ukrainian intelligence gathering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" videos showing detentions indicate ongoing internal security operations to maintain control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Continued Attritional Assaults: As evidenced by UAF drone footage showing high RUF casualties, RUF continues to employ "meat grinder" tactics, relying on sheer numbers despite losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF "Два майора" video showing evacuation from LBS further confirms ongoing casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • IO Adaptation: Rapid integration of new territorial claims into official messaging. Use of visual media (like "Dragon's Teeth" photo, and claimed UAF war crimes videos) to discredit UAF preparedness and legitimacy. Leveraging human interest stories (e.g., "Fat Cat" and wounded civilian video) to humanize RUF or portray victimhood. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New emphasis on blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued derogatory messaging against Zelenskyy and NATO is observed, demonstrating persistence in undermining adversary leadership and alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian desire for peace on current front lines is a new IO tactic to influence enemy public opinion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns using AI-generated content (deepfakes) to create false narratives of enemy leaders' "liquidation" indicates a new, highly deceptive and aggressive IO tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Targeting Western Aid Logistics/Infrastructure: RUF claims regarding strikes on military repair facilities in Germany now corroborated by UAF sources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ISR-Strike Synergy: Demonstrated effective use of Orlan-10 for reconnaissance paired with Lancet for strike missions in Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Use of "Geranium-2" (Shahed) for strikes on UAF temporary deployment points (Novoekonomicheskoe). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New RUF FPV drone strike on UAF personnel and vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF MoD video showcasing FAB-500/1500 strikes on "enemy aircraft temporary deployment areas" indicates continued refinement and reliance on heavy air-launched munitions for tactical and operational support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Воин DV" drone footage confirms active UAV-supported targeting by units like the 39th Motor Rifle Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts video of RUF FPV drone strikes, demonstrating ongoing tactical adaptation in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Social Controls: Implementation of alcohol sale restrictions in Moscow region indicates a willingness to impose social controls, potentially for security or public order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Increased interest in "Homeland Security" education suggests long-term social engineering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF requests for drone donations from private citizens show continued reliance on crowd-funding for basic military equipment, indicating supply chain challenges or decentralization of procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin's decree extending draft deferment for Old Believers is a social policy adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Diplomatic Leveraging: Public statements from Peskov on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" not applying to Russia indicate a hardening diplomatic stance and rhetorical adaptation for international audiences. Putin's meeting with the UAE Crown Prince is an example of diversifying diplomatic ties to circumvent Western isolation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Putin's formation of an organizing committee for a Russian-Arab summit indicates a continued push for diplomatic diversification and influence building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Successful Stabilization of Northern Front: Syrskyi's report confirms a major defensive success in halting the RUF advance in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Effective Aerial AD: Demonstrated use of fighter aircraft (MiG-29 pilot "Denfix") for night-time Shahed interceptions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF source "STERNENKO" reports 93rd ZRADn shot down 6 reconnaissance UAVs, indicating effective ground-based AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Potential for 5 more Patriot systems from the US would significantly enhance AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Zaporizhzhia OMA confirms deployment of new drone interceptor systems, indicating adaptive AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff's order to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions is a proactive tactical adaptation to counter RUF drone threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Effective Anti-Assault Drone Operations: UAF FPV drones inflicting heavy casualties on RUF "moto-groups" during assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF FPV drone strike destroying a Russian "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claimed first confirmed use of "Peklo" missile-drone indicates ongoing development and deployment of indigenous long-range strike capabilities. (LOW CONFIDENCE - needs independent verification).
  • Successful Long-Range Strike Capability: GUR's release of A-22 Foxbat drone launch video demonstrates continued development and deployment of long-range strike assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RUF claims of UAF "Peklo" missile-drone use, if verified, would represent a new long-range strike capability for UAF. (LOW CONFIDENCE on weapon type, HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting).
  • Proactive Internal Security: Exposure of drug trafficking groups with military clients in Sumy indicates internal measures to maintain force integrity. Continued detention of evasion scheme organizers and TCC inspections of educational institutions indicates proactive measures against draft evasion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). General Prosecutor's Office exposes customs officer involved in currency smuggling, indicating continued internal anti-corruption efforts vital for state stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Continued Training and Readiness: Video footage from Kharkiv shows ongoing, realistic training for ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video shows deployed soldiers with equipment, suggesting continued operational readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New UAF training on mine identification and EOD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video shows 78th Separate Assault Regiment conducting active combat operations, indicating high readiness and effective offensive tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Effective Logistics Interdiction: Successful FPV drone attack on RUF fuel train in Zaporizhzhia Oblast demonstrates effective disruption of RUF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Disaster Response: Completion of emergency recovery in Kyiv demonstrates effective civilian response to RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Demining Operations: Continued demining in Kharkiv Oblast demonstrates proactive efforts to secure territory and reduce long-term environmental hazards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF:
  • Internal Strain: The report of a severely wounded soldier not being released from the front suggests potential pressure on medical evacuation and long-term care systems, possibly impacting morale and future recruitment. This is corroborated by multiple reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF "Два майора" video showing evacuation from LBS indicates ongoing medical support requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" report on conscript raids indicates continued pressure on manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve in Russian courts since the war began indicates significant internal resistance to military service and potential long-term manpower challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: A new sector of graves at the Izhevsk cemetery reinforces the narrative of sustained casualties and their impact on available manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Public Anxiety impacting Resources: Increased interest in survival courses in Moscow might indicate public concern about safety and a potential drain on civilian resources (e.g., medical supplies, shelter equipment) for private preparations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Corruption/Internal Mismanagement: Searches and detentions in Surgut administration suggest ongoing internal issues that could impact resource allocation or public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deepening Alliances for Sustainment: Expansion of special services cooperation with China could indicate joint efforts to mitigate sanctions and secure critical supplies. Potential North Korean troop deployment would directly address manpower/attrition issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod further reinforces the deepening Russia-Belarus alliance, potentially streamlining logistical cooperation in central Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Logistics Vulnerabilities: The successful UAF FPV drone strike on a RUF fuel train in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlights continued vulnerabilities in RUF logistics, particularly rail transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "RZD Passengers" app temporary unavailability could further impact rail logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" comment on Starlink suggests a significant technological gap for RUF forces that needs addressing, indicating a critical need for alternative communication/ISR solutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF strike on a gas station in Belgorod Oblast further highlights vulnerabilities of civilian infrastructure near the border impacting support/resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" appeal for drone donations indicates informal or decentralized procurement channels due to shortages or desire for specific models. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Internal Challenges: Exposure of drug trafficking in Sumy Oblast indicates a need for continued internal policing and support mechanisms to prevent substance abuse from impacting force readiness. Detention of evasion scheme organizers and TCC inspections are positive steps in maintaining force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Customs officer corruption case indicates ongoing internal challenges that can impact national finances and resource flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Temporary suspension of vehicle registration at Uhryniv checkpoint due to technical issues highlights potential vulnerabilities in border logistics and administrative systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Training Needs: The Kharkiv training video highlights the ongoing need for training resources and facilities to maintain and improve combat effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Combat Losses: The success of UAF FPV drones against RUF moto-groups highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare, but also implies ongoing equipment attrition that requires replenishment. Losses of Western equipment in Germany, while not direct UAF combat losses, impact overall force sustainment.
  • Air Defense Capacity: The continued high tempo of RUF air and missile strikes, along with the Air Force alert, indicates persistent pressure on UAF AD resources and a need for continued replenishment and upgrading of systems. Potential for 5 more Patriot systems from the US would be a significant boost to UAF AD capacity and sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Shmyhal's order to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions addresses a critical resource requirement for counter-drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia also enhance local AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Long-Range Strike Capacity: While the A-22 Foxbat demonstration is positive, continued development and scaling of domestic long-range strike capabilities will be critical. Claimed use of "Peklo" missile-drone, if verified, suggests domestic production alleviating reliance on external sources for some capabilities. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
  • Logistics Protection: Continued need for robust logistics protection against RUF drone and missile strikes.
  • Demining Efforts: Significant demining efforts in Kharkiv indicate a drain on resources for post-combat cleanup, but also critical for future operations and civilian safety. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: RUF MoD's rapid official declaration of newly captured territories (Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta) indicates a centralized and swift information release for battlefield gains, suggesting effective top-down C2. Continued counter-terrorism and counter-intelligence operations in RF territory (Novorossiysk, Moscow region, Bryansk AD), now with visual confirmation of FSB operations, highlight a concerted effort by FSB/MoD to maintain internal security and control. The issue of the wounded soldier not being released points to potential localized C2 failures or systemic issues with personnel management at lower echelons, contrasting with strategic messaging. Strategic C2 appears to be directing a sustained advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The alcohol restrictions in Moscow region and militarization of education also indicate centralized civilian control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF channels are coordinating IO to push the narrative of UAF AD causing civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's public statements on diplomatic stances and Putin's meeting schedule indicate a controlled and deliberate strategic C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Requests for drone donations from private individuals suggest a potentially decentralized or informal command and control structure for certain tactical procurements, or a gap in formal supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The high number of refusal-to-serve cases indicates a C2 challenge in enforcing conscription and maintaining discipline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Putin's decree on draft deferment for Old Believers and the formation of a Russian-Arab summit organizing committee demonstrate centralized strategic C2 for long-term policy and foreign relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Рыбарь" videos showing detentions could be an implicit display of effective internal C2 for law enforcement/security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Syrskyi's clear statement on halting the Sumy advance reflects effective strategic C2 and timely assessment of the battlefield. The ongoing regional governance in Kharkiv, with important decisions being made and Governor's participation in security forums, demonstrates effective civilian C2 despite conflict. Successful aerial AD operations highlight effective C2 in air defense planning and execution. The exposure of drug trafficking and evasion schemes indicates a functional internal security C2. UAF Air Force issuing warnings indicates effective operational C2 for air defense. GUR's release of A-22 Foxbat drone launch video suggests coordinated strategic communication of new capabilities. UAF Central Election Commission statements indicate forward planning for civilian governance post-martial law. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Prosecutor's Office reorganization indicates ongoing governmental C2 and reform. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued demining operations and reporting by the Kharkiv Governor demonstrate effective regional civilian and military coordination on critical safety tasks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Shmyhal's directive to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions signifies effective top-down tactical C2 adaptation to immediate battlefield needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The establishment of new drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia also points to effective regional military-civilian C2 in adapting to threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video demonstrates effective tactical C2 within a specific assault unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, particularly in Sumy Oblast, where the RUF advance has been completely stopped. UAF forces continue to repel multiple RUF assaults on various axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Offensive Capabilities: UAF FPV drone units are demonstrating high effectiveness in destroying RUF assault groups, inflicting significant casualties. UAF also shows capability for effective aerial engagements against RUF UAVs and successful long-range drone strikes into RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The GUR's public display of the A-22 Foxbat drone launch indicates growing and confident deep strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demonstrated capability to destroy Russian MLRS (Grad) with FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claimed first confirmed use of the "Peklo" missile-drone suggests continuous innovation in offensive assets. (LOW CONFIDENCE - needs verification). NEW: UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video demonstrates offensive readiness and effective tactical execution by assault units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air Defense: UAF Air Force is demonstrating adaptive and successful air defense, including using fighter aircraft for night-time UAV interceptions, and has issued an alert suggesting readiness for further aerial threats. UAF 93rd ZRADn demonstrated effective ground-based AD against reconnaissance UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Potential for 5 more Patriot systems from the US would significantly enhance AD capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Shmyhal's order to redistribute EW systems indicates proactive enhancement of counter-drone capabilities in frontline regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA's announcement of new drone interceptor systems confirms adaptive AD readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Force Generation & Training: UAF continues robust training programs for its ground forces, indicating sustained efforts to maintain and enhance combat readiness. Efforts to combat evasion schemes, including TCC inspections of educational institutions, are ongoing and show a proactive approach to force generation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Mine awareness training for infantry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Internal Security: UAF internal security forces (SBU, police) are active in combating criminal activity, including drug trafficking and evasion schemes, which helps maintain force integrity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) General Prosecutor's Office uncovering corruption at customs indicates continued commitment to internal state security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Temporary suspension of services at Uhryniv checkpoint due to database issues indicates a vulnerability that can impact personnel/logistics flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Leadership/Governance: Civilian governance continues, as demonstrated by the Kharkiv Governor's activities and statements from the Central Election Commission regarding future elections. General Prosecutor's Office restructuring indicates continued governmental function. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Awarding "Hero of Ukraine" posthumously boosts morale and recognizes sacrifices. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demining efforts reflect proactive civilian governance in war-affected areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OGA's announcement of financial aid for families affected by RUF attacks indicates robust civilian support initiatives for morale and social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • RUF advance on Sumy front completely stopped and contact line stabilized by UAF forces, re-engaging 50,000 RUF troops (Syrskyi). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Repelled 14 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ukrainian FPV drones inflicting significant casualties on RUF assault moto-groups on the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) FPV drone destruction of RUF "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Successful air-to-air interception of a Russian Shahed drone by a Ukrainian fighter pilot (MiG-29 'Denfix'). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 93rd ZRADn shot down 6 RUF reconnaissance UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exposure of a drug trafficking group in Sumy Oblast and detention of evasion scheme organizers, including new TCC inspections in Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Successful long-range FPV drone strike on a RUF fuel train in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public display of A-22 Foxbat long-range drone launch. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued high-intensity training of ground forces in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Specialized mine awareness training for 58th Motorized Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Expected prisoner exchange signals ongoing humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Completion of emergency recovery work in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Over 260 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week, indicating successful efforts to reclaim territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Potential for 5 additional Patriot systems from the US signifies continued and possibly increasing Western military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Awarding "Hero of Ukraine" to Maksym Yemets highlights UAF's recognition of sacrifices. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exposure of customs officer corruption demonstrates commitment to internal governance and security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Shmyhal's order to redistribute EW systems to frontline regions is a proactive measure to enhance defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia OMA's announcement of new drone interceptor systems signifies adaptive AD measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video confirms successful trench assaults and clearing operations by UAF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • RUF claims liberation of Novoserhiivka and Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast, with Novoserhiivka specifically confirmed by UAF sources and Shevchenko visually confirmed by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). If confirmed, these represent tactical losses. RUF also claims liberation of Yalta (DNR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with supporting video). RUF successful strikes on UAF temporary deployment points (Novoekonomicheskoe). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF DeepState reports RUF advances in Shevchenko, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole (Donetsk Oblast), and Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), indicating continued tactical losses for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • The report of UAF AD potentially striking a Kyiv high-rise (RUF claim) could be a setback if proven true, or a significant IO challenge if it gains traction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
  • Drug trafficking impacting military personnel in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Losses of military equipment in Germany due to claimed RUF strikes, now corroborated by UAF sources showing burning military trucks in Erfurt. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicates successful attack on Western aid/logistics, regardless of attribution of attacker).
  • RUF KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate continued vulnerability to aerial bombardment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NEW: Temporary suspension of vehicle registration at Uhryniv checkpoint due to technical issues indicates a logistical disruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Personnel Management: The issue of military personnel involvement in drug trafficking highlights a need for continued focus on personnel well-being and internal disciplinary measures. Efforts to combat evasion schemes remain critical for force generation. TCC inspections in educational institutions signal increased pressure on recruitment.
• Training Resources: Sustained training efforts require ongoing provision of equipment, ammunition, and dedicated training areas. Specifically, specialized training like EOD/mine awareness needs consistent resources.
• Combat Losses: The success of UAF FPV drones against RUF moto-groups highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare, but also implies ongoing equipment attrition that requires replenishment. Losses of Western equipment in Germany, while not direct UAF combat losses, impact overall force sustainment.
• Air Defense Capacity: The continued high tempo of RUF air and missile strikes, along with the Air Force alert, indicates persistent pressure on UAF AD resources and a need for continued replenishment and upgrading of systems. The potential acquisition of 5 Patriot systems significantly addresses this constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Redistribution of EW systems to frontline regions indicates a proactive measure to address immediate AD needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Deployment of new drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia also reflects addressing resource gaps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Long-Range Strike Capacity: While the A-22 Foxbat demonstration is positive, continued development and scaling of domestic long-range strike capabilities will be critical. Claimed "Peklo" missile-drone indicates continued indigenous development efforts. (LOW CONFIDENCE).
• Logistics Protection: Continued need for robust logistics protection against RUF drone and missile strikes. NEW: The technical issues at Uhryniv checkpoint highlight vulnerabilities in administrative logistics that need to be addressed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Demining Resources: Significant demining efforts in Kharkiv highlight the ongoing need for specialized equipment and trained personnel for clearing contaminated areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF:
  • Territorial Gains and Victory Narrative: Official MoD announcements of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, and Yalta "liberation" are central to projecting continued RUF advance and success, now visually supported for Shevchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dehumanization: Continued use of terms like "Ukrainian Nazis" by channels like "AV БогомаZ" to justify actions and incite hatred. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security Narrative: Amplifying thwarting "terrorist attacks" in Moscow region and arrests of "enemy agents" in Novorossiysk, with visual confirmation from FSB operations, to justify internal repression and portray Ukraine as a terrorist state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Detention of individual in Novorossiysk who confessed to sharing information about Ukrainian military objects reinforces the narrative of internal threats requiring state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "Рыбарь" videos of detentions further amplify the internal security narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Undermining UAF Capabilities: RUF source "Военкор Котенок" attempting to portray UAF defensive preparations ("Dragon's Teeth") as "aimlessly piled up" to suggest incompetence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF source "Воин DV" attempts to use alleged UAF footage to accuse UAF of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
  • Shifting Blame for Civilian Casualties: RUF source "Alex Parker Returns" and "Операция Z" attempts to discredit UAF Air Defense by claiming UAF admitted to AD striking civilian building in Kyiv, or that UAF AD is inherently dangerous to civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
  • Exaggerating UAF Losses/Discrediting Personnel: "Colonelcassad" attempting to share photos of "destroyed mercenaries" is a common RUF IO tactic to demoralize UAF and its foreign support, though no image was provided for analysis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - No image for verification).
  • Internal Dissatisfaction/Morale: The report about the severely wounded soldier not being released from the front, while potentially an isolated incident, could be indicative of internal issues that RUF seeks to suppress or ignore, but could also be exploited by UAF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The high number of refusal-to-serve cases is a significant crack in the RUF internal narrative of unity and willingness to fight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RUF "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" report on new graves in Izhevsk indirectly acknowledges casualties, but can be framed to justify the "fight." (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Старше Эдды" message "Stormtroopers are not meat" is a direct counter-narrative against perceptions of human wave attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Targeting Western Aid: RUF reports regarding strikes on UAF equipment repair facility in Germany are designed to discourage international aid and project reach, now bolstered by UAF corroboration of the fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
  • Global Narrative: Highlighting Iran's claims of victory over Israel and suspension of IAEA cooperation creates significant regional instability, potentially distracting international attention and resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Lavrov's statements minimizing NATO defense spending impact on RF security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Serbian PM's pledge not to send arms to Ukraine, aiming to show Ukraine's isolation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's statements on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" rejecting Russia are tailored for both domestic and international audiences, attempting to control narratives around global security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF channels continue to amplify derogatory terms for Zelenskyy and question NATO's unity, demonstrating consistent efforts to undermine adversaries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod is a soft power projection emphasizing regional alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Alex Parker Returns using AI-generated "liquidation" of Israeli leaders is an aggressive and deceptive IO tactic to fuel regional instability narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian peace sentiment is a targeted IO campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Басурин о главном" pushing the "Finland as new Ukraine" narrative aims to sow anti-NATO sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS video of Peskov's pre-summit statements frames Russia's actions as a response to NATO expansion, justifying their aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Humanizing RUF: RUF source "Два майора" uses a human-interest story about a cat at a PVD to elicit sympathy for RUF personnel, a common IO tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF "WarGonzo" video with wounded civilian narrative is similar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
  • Domestic Propaganda: WarGonzo promoting a documentary on the Terek Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Militarization of education (St. Petersburg) for long-term ideological control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF reports on "future terrorist attacks in Syria" and the banning of media/music (e.g., "American Dad," Kizaru) reinforce a narrative of external and internal threats to justify state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Requests for drone donations (e.g., "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") are a form of bottom-up propaganda, mobilizing public support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Control Narrative: Reports of alcohol restrictions and public safety measures (children near water) indicate a broader state control narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Monorail shutdown (minor, but for stability). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Highlighting Defensive Successes: Syrskyi's official statement on halting the Sumy advance is a major IO success, demonstrating effective defense and refuting RUF narratives of overwhelming force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Showcasing Combat Effectiveness: Videos of FPV drones inflicting heavy RUF casualties and fighter pilots destroying Shaheds are powerful messages of UAF's technical and tactical superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF's public display of the A-22 Foxbat drone launch further reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New FPV drone strike on a "Grad" MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Claimed first confirmed use of "Peklo" missile-drone, if verified, would be a significant IO boost for Ukrainian technological self-sufficiency. (LOW CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" video showcases successful trench assaults, projecting competence and effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Reinforcing International Support: Lithuanian President's strong statements on continued sanctions and no "light at the end of the tunnel" for peace without Russian change supports the narrative of unwavering international resolve. Erdogan's statements about Trump joining talks with Putin highlight continued diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Unofficial reports of 5 additional Patriot systems from the US will reinforce narratives of robust international military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Transparency on Internal Issues: Reporting on drug trafficking among military personnel and evasion schemes demonstrates a commitment to transparency and addressing internal challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Corruption at customs, while negative, the public reporting of it can build trust in institutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Reporting on temporary technical issues at Uhryniv checkpoint demonstrates transparency, fostering trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Training and Readiness: Videos showcasing intense UAF training serve to reassure the public and international partners about UAF's continued commitment to readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New mine awareness training emphasizes UAF readiness for complex battlefield environments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Humanitarian Focus: Reporting on POW family meetings and expected exchanges highlights a commitment to personnel welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Posthumous awards like "Hero of Ukraine" serve as powerful morale boosters and symbols of national gratitude. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OGA's announcement of financial aid for families affected by attacks showcases a focus on civilian well-being and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Post-War Planning: Discussions about election procedures signal confidence in a post-war future. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • National Identity: Commemoration of Crimean Tatar Flag Day reinforces national identity and commitment to de-occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Effective Civilian Governance: Kharkiv Governor's activities and Kyiv's recovery efforts reinforce a narrative of functional governance despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demining reports reinforce proactive efforts to restore normal life. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• RUF:
  • Rising Anxiety: Increased interest in survival courses in Moscow suggests heightened public anxiety about security and potential future conflict escalation within Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact of Casualties/Disregard for Soldiers: The report of the severely wounded soldier not being released from the front could negatively impact public morale and trust in military leadership if widely known or perceived as systemic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF video showing LBS evacuation could also remind the public of ongoing losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Conscript raids continue, affecting public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Over 20,000 cases of refusal to serve indicates significant internal dissent and potentially low morale among conscript-age populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: The new sector of graves in Izhevsk directly demonstrates human cost, which can impact public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The "Stormtroopers are not meat" message indicates attempts to manage morale within the military and public perception of losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Effectiveness of IO: RUF's ability to quickly announce territorial gains (Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta) aims to boost domestic morale and reinforce the perception of progress. The "Fat Cat" story attempts to create an emotional connection and reinforce victimhood. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Crackdowns: Searches and detentions in Surgut administration, the thwarted terror attack in Moscow region, and alcohol restrictions likely increase public fear and reinforce the state's control narrative. The "buried women" ritual incident highlights strange societal undercurrents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Banning of media/music signals increasing cultural control, potentially impacting social freedoms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The arrest of an individual in Novorossiysk for sharing information with Ukraine reinforces the narrative of constant threat and justifies a surveillance state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Peskov's statements on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" not applying to Russia are tailored to manage public expectations and justify ongoing actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF "Операция Z" survey on Ukrainian peace sentiment is designed to impact both Ukrainian and Russian public perception of the conflict's end. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Nationalism: Emphasizing shared special services cooperation with China and perceived victories over external adversaries (Israel/US) aims to rally nationalist sentiment. Militarization of education aims to instill long-term loyalty. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The "fake news" claim about Kamchatka demonstrates RUF efforts to manage internal perceptions of military readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod aims to project stability and strength through alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Resilience and Resolve: The halting of the Sumy advance will significantly boost Ukrainian public morale and reinforce faith in their military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Confidence in Military: Visual proof of successful drone operations and aerial AD (e.g., "Denfix" pilot), and the A-22 Foxbat launch reinforces confidence in UAF's ability to defend the country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: The establishment of new drone interceptor systems in Zaporizhzhia and the redistribution of EW systems will boost public confidence in defense capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Concerns about Internal Challenges: The report on drug trafficking among military personnel and evasion schemes could cause some public concern, but transparent reporting and action will likely mitigate negative impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Corruption at customs, while negative, the public reporting of it can build trust in institutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Transparency regarding technical issues at Uhryniv checkpoint can build public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Long-Term Outlook: The Lithuanian President's "no light at the end of the tunnel" comment and a three-year war projection may reflect a realistic but somber assessment that could impact public sentiment regarding the war's duration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Training Morale: Footage of active and challenging training indicates high morale and commitment among UAF recruits and active personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Focus: News of prisoner exchanges and support for POW families is critical for maintaining morale among troops and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Posthumous awards like "Hero of Ukraine" serve as powerful morale boosters and symbols of national gratitude. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OGA's financial aid initiatives will positively impact public sentiment, especially in affected areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Symbolic Unity: Observance of Crimean Tatar Flag Day reinforces national unity and commitment to sovereignty over occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Civic Continuity: News about housing loans and election discussions provides a sense of normalcy and future planning, which can positively impact public morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Demining efforts contribute to a sense of progress and safety for civilians returning to liberated areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Continued Strong Support for Ukraine:
  • Political Support: Lithuanian President's call for an 18th sanctions package signals continued political and economic pressure on Russia from EU allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Ireland's PM expresses regret over Hungary's blockade of Ukraine's EU accession, highlighting continued EU support for Ukraine's integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Military Aid: North Korea's potential troop deployment to Russia would be a significant development for international support, potentially galvanizing further Western aid to Ukraine. Germany's funding of "Lyutiy" UAVs indicates continued direct military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Unofficial reports of 5 additional Patriot systems from the US indicate continued high-level military support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Challenges to Peace Negotiations: Lithuanian President's statement reiterates the Western stance that Russia is not genuinely interested in negotiations without a ceasefire, reinforcing the need for continued military pressure and a longer war. Erdogan's push for Trump and Putin to meet for peace talks indicates continued third-party diplomatic efforts, but contingent on key figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Peskov's statement on the "incomparable" nature of conflicts and "peace through strength" rejecting Russia indicates RUF's hardline stance on negotiations and refusal to engage from a position of perceived weakness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Peskov's statement that the date for "Istanbul" peace talks depends on prisoner exchanges indicates a tactical diplomatic approach, leveraging humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Third-Party Mediation: Erdogan's statement on seeking a meeting for peaceful settlement indicates continued international efforts for diplomacy, but likely without significant breakthrough given current Russian stance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Deepening Russia-DPRK/China/Belarus Ties: Potential North Korean troop deployment to Russia signals an alarming deepening of military cooperation between authoritarian regimes, which will be viewed with concern by Western and Asian powers. Expansion of RF-China special services cooperation reinforces this trend. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Putin's meeting with the UAE Crown Prince in Minsk indicates Russia's continued efforts to expand its diplomatic and economic ties outside of traditional Western partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The opening of the Belarusian Consulate General in Nizhny Novgorod further strengthens Russia-Belarus ties, a key regional alliance for Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Putin forming an organizing committee for the first Russian-Arab summit reinforces Russia's efforts to build new alliances and diplomatic platforms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Middle East Instability: Iran's declared victory over Israel and suspension of IAEA cooperation creates significant regional instability, potentially distracting international attention and resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) US preconditions for Iran negotiations indicate continued international focus on regional stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The billboard in Tel Aviv about the "Abraham Alliance" suggests continued efforts for regional normalization, which could impact the broader geopolitical landscape. (LOW CONFIDENCE). NEW: Alex Parker Returns using AI to depict "liquidation" of Israeli leaders highlights the use of advanced IO to shape international perceptions of Middle East conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Balkan Geopolitics: Serbian PM's pledge not to send arms to Ukraine highlights Russia's continued diplomatic influence in key regions and potential for internal EU/NATO divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• EU Internal Affairs: EU Commissioner's call for a "drone armada" suggests an increased focus on European defense capabilities in response to Russian aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Donetsk Attrition and Consolidation: RUF will intensify attritional ground assaults on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, leveraging the confirmed liberation of Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske to further advance and consolidate gains. They will attempt to gain full fire control over UAF logistics routes into Konstantinovka and possibly initiate direct assaults on the city. The reported advance of "Vostok" Group towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates a high probability of expanding the Donetsk offensive westwards, threatening the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. This will be supported by persistent artillery (e.g., Msta-B, Grad) and drone attacks (e.g., Shahed) on UAF temporary deployment points and civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Northern Axis Persistent Pressure: Despite UAF claims of halting the advance, RUF will maintain significant pressure on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes with probing ground attacks, intensive KAB and tactical aviation strikes, and reconnaissance efforts. The objective will be to fix UAF reserves and expand the "buffer zone," even if a rapid breakthrough is not immediately achieved. Continued UAF drone activity into Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts will provoke RUF AD responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF "Anvar" detachment operations indicate continued efforts to secure border regions and clear buffer zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Continued Strategic Attrition & Civilian Targeting: RUF will maintain a high tempo of precision and massed ballistic missile, cruise missile, and Shahed UAV strikes against critical infrastructure and urban centers, aiming to inflict mass civilian casualties and degrade UAF's warfighting capacity. Targeted strikes on alleged Western aid infrastructure (e.g., confirmed fire in Germany) will be amplified for IO purposes, with a heavy emphasis on blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD's continued use of FAB-500/1500 suggests a sustained air campaign against tactical and operational targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Escalated Cyber and Information Warfare: RUF will intensify cyberattacks and information operations, particularly focusing on internal security narratives within RF to justify repression and control information (e.g., Starlink issues, increased domestic controls, militarization of education, cultural censorship, new ID app for foreigners), and attempting to sow discord among Ukraine's international partners (e.g., blaming UAF AD for civilian casualties, highlighting EU internal disagreements, promoting narratives of Western decline, leveraging third-party diplomatic statements, AI-generated IO content). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF will continue to leverage diplomatic statements and high-level meetings to project an image of global influence and undermine Western unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF will specifically push narratives of high Ukrainian desire for peace on the current front lines to influence internal Ukrainian decision-making and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Synchronized Multi-Front Breakthrough & Strategic Paralysis: RUF launches a fully synchronized, large-scale offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk, and new thrust into Dnipropetrovsk) axes simultaneously, aiming for a rapid operational breakthrough and deep penetration, preceded by an intense, multi-layered saturation missile and drone attack on Kyiv and key UAF C2 nodes. This could include significant cyber and EW operations to disrupt UAF C2. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully)
• North Korean Troop Deployment and Hybrid Escalation: Confirmed deployment of a significant number of North Korean troops to the Ukrainian front lines (e.g., for direct combat or logistical support) could significantly augment RUF manpower and prolong attritional warfare. This would be coupled with intensified hybrid operations across Europe to test NATO cohesion, potentially including physical attacks on Western military aid supply chains (e.g., repair facilities), or state-sponsored terrorism within NATO member states. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours): RUF will attempt to confirm and consolidate gains in Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske, and press westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the confirmed position in Novoserhiivka. UAF must rapidly assess the new front lines and establish robust defensive positions to counter further RUF advances towards Udachne and Konstantinovka, and protect Dnipropetrovsk. UAF must also prepare for potential prisoner exchange. Expected continued RUF tactical artillery/drone strikes on UAF temporary deployment points in Donetsk. RUF will continue to push the narrative of UAF AD causing civilian harm in Kyiv. Expect continued RUF KAB strikes on northern Donetsk and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF decision point on redistribution of EW assets and deployment of new drone interceptor systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Next 24-72 hours: Continued RUF pressure on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, with ongoing reconnaissance and probing attacks. UAF decision point on reserve posture based on RUF's continued commitment of forces to this axis. Continued AD alerts are highly probable. Expect increased TCC activity in Poltava and other regions. Decision point for UAF on how to integrate and deploy potential new Patriot systems if confirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF decision point on managing temporary logistics disruptions (e.g., Uhryniv checkpoint). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Short-term (July-August): Decision point for UAF and international partners on response and adaptation strategies if North Korean troop deployment to Russia is confirmed. International diplomacy (Erdogan, EU) regarding peace talks and sanctions will continue, impacting political leverage. UAF will likely continue to demonstrate and expand its long-range drone strike capabilities. Lithuania's 3-year war projection will influence long-term planning. The high number of refusal-to-serve cases in RF will challenge RUF manpower generation in the mid-term. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ongoing: RUF will continue missile/UAV strikes. UAF must continuously review and adapt AD asset allocation and force protection measures. Internal security challenges (drug trafficking, evasion schemes, corruption) will require sustained UAF attention. Demining efforts will be ongoing.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Validate the extent and implications of RUF control in Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske, focusing on any RUF intent to use these positions for a deeper thrust towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Task all-source ISR to assess RUF force disposition, intent, and vulnerabilities in these newly claimed territories, prioritizing identifying specific RUF units involved (e.g., Vostok Group) and their immediate objectives (e.g., blocking Udachne, pressing into Dnipropetrovsk).
  2. IMMEDIATE: Maintain continuous, high-fidelity ISR coverage on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes (GROUND PRIORITY #1). While Syrskyi reports stabilization, continued vigilance is paramount to detect any shifts in RUF force posture or intent for a renewed major offensive. Specifically monitor any signs of massing for breakthrough rather than attritional attacks, using all available aerial reconnaissance assets. Prioritize drone reconnaissance for RUF buffer zone clearance efforts (e.g., "Anvar" detachment).
  3. URGENT: Continue aggressive interdiction operations using FPV drones against RUF assault groups, armor (e.g., "Erzatz-BTRs"), and particularly vulnerable high-value targets like MLRS (e.g., "Grad"), leveraging the demonstrated effectiveness. Prioritize targeting of RUF protected mobility and ISR assets (e.g., Orlan-10s).
  4. HIGH: Expedite intelligence collection on North Korean troop deployment logistics, training, and potential integration into RUF forces. Identify their likely roles and vulnerabilities to develop targeted countermeasures.
  5. HIGH: Continue deep strike operations against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets within RF territory, leveraging GUR's A-22 Foxbat. Prioritize targets that support RUF missile and drone production and deployment, including those confirmed by UAF BDA (e.g., "Atlant AERO"). Intensify intelligence on possible sabotage/strikes against Western aid infrastructure (e.g., Germany), and conduct thorough BDA on the Erfurt incident.
  6. MEDIUM: Intensify counter-intelligence efforts and internal security measures within Ukraine to mitigate threats from RUF agents and saboteurs, particularly in light of reported detentions in Novorossiysk and Moscow region, and continued efforts against evasion schemes (e.g., TCC inspections). Publicize UAF successes in these areas to build public trust.
  7. MEDIUM: Monitor internal RF social and economic indicators (e.g., survival course interest, wounded soldier reports, alcohol restrictions, militarization of education, conscript raids, cultural censorship, cases of refusal to serve, new cemetery graves) for insights into RUF public morale and potential pressure points. Assess impact of "RZD Passengers" app issues on logistics. Prioritize collection on RUF internal drone acquisition (e.g., "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" requests).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reinforce air defense assets to protect areas threatened by newly established RUF positions in Donetsk Oblast, particularly routes and logistics hubs supporting Konstantinovka and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Maintain high alert for continued missile and KAB strikes nationwide, and respond effectively to UAF Air Force warnings. Prioritize defense against heavy aerial bombs (FAB-500/1500) and thermal-equipped Shaheds.
  2. URGENT: Prioritize integration and deployment of advanced EW systems to counter RUF's adapting UAV technologies (e.g., thermal-equipped Shaheds, FPV drones, Lancet systems), including the redistribution order from Shmyhal. Leverage successes like the 93rd ZRADn and the new Zaporizhzhia drone interceptors.
  3. HIGH: Accelerate the training and operational deployment of UAF fighter aircraft for air defense missions, leveraging successes like the "Denfix" pilot's Shahed kill.
  4. HIGH: Conduct thorough BDA and public messaging regarding RUF claims of UAF AD striking civilian targets (e.g., Kyiv high-rise) to prevent narrative capture, emphasizing RUF's responsibility for the original attack.
  5. HIGH: Rapidly integrate and deploy additional Patriot systems if the US provides them, prioritizing their strategic deployment to protect critical infrastructure and population centers.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Consolidate and reinforce defensive lines immediately following RUF's confirmed gains in Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Yalta, Burlatsky, Vilne Pole, and Kamyanske. Focus on establishing strong, multi-layered defenses to prevent RUF from blocking UAF grouping in Udachne and pressing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  2. IMMEDIATE: Maintain maximum readiness on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Continue robust defensive operations, leveraging high-intensity training to sustain troop effectiveness against RUF pressure.
  3. HIGH: Address internal issues such as drug trafficking within military ranks to ensure force integrity and readiness. Implement preventative measures and support programs for personnel. Continue aggressive measures against evasion schemes, particularly TCC inspections.
  4. HIGH: Continue high-tempo, realistic training for ground forces, as demonstrated in Kharkiv, to ensure continuous improvement in combat skills and tactical adaptation, including specialized training like mine awareness.
  5. MEDIUM: Accelerate demining efforts in liberated territories, leveraging successes in Kharkiv Oblast, to enhance civilian safety and enable future operations.

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Publicize UAF's major success in completely halting the RUF advance in Sumy Oblast (Syrskyi's statement) as a testament to UAF's strategic competence and resilience. Use this to counter RUF's narrative of an unstoppable offensive.
  2. IMMEDIATE: Counter RUF's claims of "liberating" Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, and Yalta by highlighting the significant RUF casualties incurred during these assaults (e.g., UAF drone footage from Pokrovsk) and portraying RUF gains as attritional and costly. Proactively refute RUF accusations of UAF war crimes (e.g., "Rarog UAV regiment burning homes of civilians"). Highlight RUF's attempt to humanize their troops through trivial messaging (e.g., "Fat Cat" story, wounded civilian narrative) as a diversion from their atrocities. Forcefully reject RUF attempts to blame UAF AD for civilian casualties in Kyiv, emphasizing RUF's responsibility for the original missile launch. Counter RUF "Операция Z" survey by emphasizing Ukrainian unity and resolve against Russian aggression.
  3. URGENT: Amplify international statements that reinforce the need for continued support and sanctions against Russia, particularly the Lithuanian President's call for an 18th sanctions package and his assessment of Russia's unwillingness to negotiate. Leverage Erdogan's statements about Trump joining talks as a sign of continued international engagement, without legitimizing Putin. Counter RUF's narrative regarding Serbian non-provision of arms by highlighting broader international support.
  4. HIGH: Prepare and disseminate a robust IO response to any confirmed North Korean troop deployment to Russia, framing it as a sign of RUF desperation and international isolation, while simultaneously highlighting the risks of such cooperation and increased instability.
  5. HIGH: Continue to showcase UAF's combat effectiveness and technological superiority (e.g., drone successes, aerial AD, effective AD warning systems, successful long-range drone strikes like A-22 Foxbat, claimed "Peklo" missile-drone, and successful trench assaults) through compelling visual content, bolstering both domestic and international confidence.
  6. MEDIUM: Maintain transparency regarding internal challenges (e.g., drug trafficking among military personnel, evasion schemes, customs corruption, temporary checkpoint disruptions) and demonstrate proactive measures to address them, enhancing public trust and countering RUF disinformation. Publicize news of prisoner exchanges and support for POW families. Support public understanding of the electoral process during/after martial law. Highlight successful civilian governance and disaster recovery efforts, including demining and financial aid to affected families. Leverage recognition for fallen heroes (e.g., Maksym Yemets) to boost national morale.
  7. MEDIUM: Counter RUF narratives (e.g., Peskov's statements on incomparable conflicts or rejection of "peace through strength," "Finland as new Ukraine" narrative, AI-generated IO) by emphasizing Russia's aggressive posture and its isolation from international norms, rather than engaging in direct rhetorical debates that legitimize their claims.

END OF REPORT