Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Claims of localized gains, including Yalta and Dyleyevka, are corroborated by RUF sources. RUF claims the "liberation" of Komar by the Vostok Group of Forces. UAF General Staff reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction, confirming active combat in these claimed areas. RUF is suppressing UAF counterattacks in the Konstantinovka direction. UAF Special Operations Forces reportedly destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast continue. RUF FPV drone strikes claimed destruction of an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. Active UAF drone strikes on RUF personnel near Pokrovsk are reported. UAF 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" is active in western Novoserhiivka. RUF claims that the capture of Yalta will enable fire control of the UAF grouping in Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Konstantinovka is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. RUF video purportedly shows destruction of UAF artillery and armored vehicles in Alekseyevka. RUF continues aerial bombardment of UAF fortified areas near Popov Yar. RUF claims destruction of a UAF 152-mm Msta-B howitzer by an attack drone. WarGonzo released a special report on the RUF 114th Brigade, claiming they operate across the border of the DNR, implying deep strikes or cross-border operations. New RUF sources indicate continued assault on Chasiv Yar, claiming control of "main part of the city." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF "Воин DV" channel publishes drone footage of "ruthless destruction of UAF positions in Shevchenko." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, but BDA required). RUF photo shows "Krasnoarmeyskoye direction" with unspecified tactical details. (LOW CONFIDENCE). RUF channels report drone strike on a multi-story building in Donetsk Oblast with a child wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source, corroborating civilian targeting). NEW RUF video from "Поддубный" claims to show the "liberation" of Yalta, depicting TOS-1A flamethrower system engaging targets and RUF soldiers posing with captured UAF flags. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, confirms capture of Yalta and use of heavy flamethrowers).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. RUF claims advancement on Krasnolimansk direction with artillery fire. UAF reports destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction. Intense drone warfare is confirmed in the Serebryanskoye forestry. RUF claims destruction of an ammunition depot near Kolodezi. RUF sources claim UAF counterattacked three times near Zelena Dolyna and Kolodyazi (Donetsk Oblast), but were repelled.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Initial reports of 19 dead in Dnipro and 2 in Samara (total 21 KIA in Oblast) are now superseded by the latest update of 20 dead in Dnipro. RUF claims a "powerful strike" on a "locomotive repair plant" or "rocket and armored vehicle production plant." Damage to a passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" is confirmed. RUF continues FPV drone and artillery strikes on Nikopol district, causing civilian damage. RUF reports a FAB-1500 strike on UAF in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Local authorities report the death toll from the 24 JUN 25 attack has reached 22.
• Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure. RUF claims a breakthrough in Sumy Oblast by "Black Sea Marines," and "first reports" of RUF advance, accompanied by photos aiming to validate presence in a "buffer zone." KAB launches on Sumy Oblast continue. UAF reports destruction of a RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims an Abrams tank destroyed in Sumy Oblast. UAF drone activity over deceased RUF personnel in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims to be advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups. New UAF reports confirm capture of 15 RUF POWs by UAF airborne assault troops and affiliated units in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video). RUF channels are releasing video footage of drone operations in Sumy Oblast, framed as "creating a buffer zone." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, but BDA required).
• Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city, hitting a civilian enterprise and injuring a 64-year-old man. RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight with KABs. UAF reports shooting down an RUF FPV drone near Kharkiv. Ballistic missile targeting Chuhuiv was intercepted. SBU and National Police detained a Russian agent in Kharkiv. RUF claims destruction of UAF personnel and equipment in the "buffer zone." UAF 3rd Assault Brigade drones inflicting BDA on RUF equipment in Kharkiv Oblast. RUF claims successful strike on a UAF command post and UAV control point in Sosnovka, Kharkiv region. Multiple UAVs detected over Kharkiv Oblast. RUF strikes impacted 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. New UAF source "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" provides updated total RUF losses as of 26 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. UAF reports RUF reconnaissance UAV activity. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is constructing anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. RUF conducted an airstrike on a settlement in Polohy district. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded. 9 private homes damaged. RUF claims a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky. RUF continues airstrikes and artillery fire near Poltavka. Almost 900 subscribers without power due to RUF attack. RUF 35th Army continues routine fire missions on the Huliaipole direction, observed targeting a D-30 type howitzer. RUF drone footage shows severe damage to a building in Kamyanske. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is observing a daily minute of silence. New UAF source "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports on increased municipal buses in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official statement).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports 3 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. RUF reports FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work. RUF disconnected mobile internet in occupied Kherson. UAF captured another prisoner on the left bank. RUF claims thwarting UAF landing plans on Crimea. RUF claims mass UAV attack on Kherson Oblast. One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske. Reported 3 killed and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to RUF attacks overnight. Southern Defense Forces report RUF maintains constant tactics and intensity of shelling in the Southern direction, with unsuccessful assault attempts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW ASTRA video and photo show aftermath of "morning Russian shelling of Kherson Oblast" with heavily damaged residential buildings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Confirms continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure and presence of high explosives).
• Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, primarily targeting Vylkove and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs, and all remaining UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast were neutralized as of 252345Z JUN 25. One Shahed strike on infrastructure in Vylkove. RUF claims striking a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. UAF drone operators destroyed a bridge in the southern direction. UAF air defense successfully engaged Shahed drones with F-16 and Mi-24. RUF claims missile strikes on ammunition depots in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Southern Defense Forces report 4 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed in their operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
  • Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
  • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. RUF successfully struck a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield.
  • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. RUF sources released FPV drone footage from Velyka Novosilka - Shevchenko, showing targeting of UAF armored vehicles and infantry. RUF sources publish FPV drone footage targeting "motorized assault troops" (presumably UAF) in an unspecified rural area, claiming successful engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, BDA needed).
• RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires. UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks. "Aeroflot" adjusted flight schedules due to restrictions over Kazan, Samara, and Saratov. Temporary flight restrictions imposed and lifted at Moscow's Vnukovo and Kaluga airports due to UAV threats. Mobile internet outages reported in Kuban and Rostov Oblasts. UAF cyber operations indicated. Internal security concerns noted with arrests of Moldovan intelligence agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg. A resident of St. Petersburg has been detained and arrested by FSB for collecting data on RF military personnel and their families for Ukrainian special services. RUF continues to receive new batches of Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft. RUF sources claim no longer needing Iran's help, having accumulated 13,000 missiles. UAF Air Force reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 41 UAVs overnight. RF MoD claims 50 UAVs destroyed overnight. TASS reports that MMA fighter Akhyadov (on RF terrorist list) was part of a larger plot for five more militants to arrive in Moscow, based on interrogation protocols. The conviction of a photographer to 16 years for transferring a book on Soviet bunkers to a foreigner highlights internal security crackdown. RUF channels are attempting to promote a donation drive for Airborne Forces. New reports confirm the photographer sentenced to 16 years for state treason for transferring a publicly available book on bunkers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Operative AFU" claims damages to agriculture in Bryansk Oblast due to Russian aggression, 1.5-2 billion rubles. (LOW CONFIDENCE - UAF source, not direct military damage). RF MoD claims destruction of a camouflaged UAF T-80 tank by an FPV drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, BDA needed). NEW RUF source "Mash na Donbasse" reports conviction of a Ukrainian saboteur for undermining a marine platform near Crimea, showing footage of FSB operations and interrogation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms FSB activity against UAF incursions). NEW RUF source "ASTRA" reports an explosive device detonated near the Ministry of Internal Affairs college in Ingushetia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates internal security concerns and potential local insurgency activity within RF). NEW RUF source "Два майора" shows a large Ukrainian loitering munition (Aeroprakt A-22) preparing for launch. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, confirms UAF long-range strike capabilities).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Recent heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, affecting air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). TASS reports two dead in France due to severe weather (thunderstorm and hurricane), indicating potential for extreme weather events impacting European theater. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• The confirmed fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Transbaikalia due to natural fires implies dry conditions and fire hazards in some parts of RF territory, which could impact local air quality and hinder ground movement in the vicinity.
• A reported fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, could release hazardous materials, impacting the local environment if proximate to logistical routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations, notably on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with confirmed captures of Yalta and Dyleyevka, and claimed capture of Komar. RUF is consolidating gains and attempting to establish fire control over UAF logistics into Konstantinovka. UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks, reportedly repelling three RUF counterattacks near Zelena Dolyna and Kolodyazi. RUF also claims control over the main part of Chasiv Yar. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF uses TOS-1A heavy flamethrowers in assaults on Yalta, indicating significant firepower commitment to breakthrough operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction, claiming Petrovske (Hrekivka), while UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is actively pushing back near Ridkodub. Drone warfare remains intense in Serebryanskoye forestry.
• Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: RUF continues probing attacks and KAB strikes. A large RUF force (52,000 personnel) remains a critical threat on the Sumy axis. UAF is actively maintaining defensive lines, conducting counter-drone operations, and enhancing defense industry activity in Kharkiv. Continued RUF reconnaissance UAV and tactical aviation activity. RUF strikes impacted 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF has successfully taken 15 RUF POWs in Sumy Oblast, indicating successful localized defensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF video footage indicates ongoing operations to create a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. RUF 35th Army continues fire missions near Huliaipole. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes, bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels, and responding to power infrastructure damage. RUF drone footage shows severe damage to a building in Kamyanske. A daily minute of silence is observed for fallen defenders. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration highlights efforts to improve civilian transport (new municipal buses). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 3 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and civilian evacuations, and has disconnected mobile internet in occupied areas to control information. RUF KAB launches confirmed. Civilian casualties reported due to RUF attacks. Southern Defense Forces report RUF maintaining constant tactics and intensity of shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Recent RUF shelling causing heavy civilian damage in Kherson Oblast is confirmed by ASTRA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Odesa Oblast: RUF conducted mass UAV strikes from the Black Sea, which were largely neutralized by UAF AD. RUF targets UAF logistics and civilian infrastructure in the region. UAF demonstrates effective multi-layered air defense responses. Southern Defense Forces report destruction of 4 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Territory: Widespread UAF drone activity continues deep inside Russia, targeting oil depots, military industrial facilities (Atlant AERO), and railway infrastructure. RF AD is highly active in multiple regions, claiming 50 UAVs destroyed overnight against UAF's claim of 41 launched. Internal security concerns are evident with reported arrests of foreign agents and saboteurs (e.g., St. Petersburg resident, photographer in Transbaikalia), and ongoing counter-sabotage operations, alongside significant disruptions to civilian aviation. A large ammunition depot fire due to natural causes could represent a material loss for RUF. RUF appears to be grappling with re-socialization challenges for 'SVO' veterans, potentially impacting future recruitment. UAF cyber operations are indicated. RUF continues to control communication in occupied territories through Starlink bans and mobile internet outages. RUF acknowledges global instability and continues to frame its operations within this context during international meetings (SCO Defense Ministers). RUF FSB reports increased activity from Ukrainian special services seeking to recruit for "terrorist acts and sabotage" in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, indicative of internal security focus). Security measures are being conducted by SBU and National Police in central Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An IED explosion at the МВД college in Ingushetia highlights persistent domestic security threats within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF is deploying large-scale loitering munitions (Aeroprakt A-22 based). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Recent Intelligence Updates

• SBU and National Police detained an RF agent attempting to blow up a military vehicle in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF channel "Два майора" highlights fundraising efforts for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued resource demands for offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• TASS reports Russian Ambassador to Japan will attend the Nagasaki ceremony, signaling diplomatic maneuvering by Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF sources show UAF FPV drone footage, claiming heavy UAF losses from Russian FPV strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, BDA needed)
• "Воин DV" (RUF source) releases drone footage from "Gnome Squad" (OTRYAD GNOM), showing reconnaissance/surveillance operations with low battery warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, highlights drone usage and operational limitations).
• RUF milblogger "Fighterbomber" discusses why VKS 'space marines' (airborne forces) are overlooked for humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal discourse, indicates resource prioritization issues).
• The Office of the Prosecutor General (UAF) confirms the signing of an agreement in Strasbourg for the creation of a Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, with President Zelenskyy and Council of Europe Secretary General. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Major diplomatic and legal development).
• OTU "Kharkiv" (UAF) provides updated total RUF combat losses as of June 26, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
• "Mash na Donbasse" (RUF source) reports on the conviction of a Ukrainian saboteur for undermining a marine platform near Crimea, showing FSB footage of capture and interrogation of a UAF soldier. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms counter-sabotage operations and captures of UAF personnel in Crimea region).
• RUF MoD video shows Defense Minister Belousov addressing the SCO meeting, discussing global security, Middle East escalation, and framing Ukrainian actions as "terrorist acts." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF official communication, reinforcing strategic narratives and partnerships).
• TASS reports Trump's promise to NATO allies that Russia won't attack them under his presidency (via WP). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, amplifying Western political discourse).
• ASTRA reports an IED explosion at the МВД college in Ingushetia, Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates internal security concerns and potential insurgent activity).
• TASS reports Orban's statement on 95% of Hungarian citizens opposing Ukraine's EU accession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, attempting to highlight EU divisions).
• RUF source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (likely a UAF-sympathetic repost of RUF POW video) features an alleged RUF POW (Dmitry Nepomnyashchikh, 57th Motor Rifle Brigade) expressing disillusionment with the war and unwillingness to fight, describing destroyed homes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO, aiming to degrade RUF morale and legitimacy).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 52,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, capable of large-scale ground offensives. Demonstrated sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including capture of Yalta and Komar. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes. RUF claims to be able to destroy NATO-supplied equipment and to suppress UAF counterattacks. RUF continues sustained assault on Chasiv Yar, claiming control of main part of the city. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF FPV drone operators are actively engaging and claiming destruction of UAF armored vehicles, including a T-80 tank. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, BDA needed). The use of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems in Yalta demonstrates a willingness to deploy high-impact, area-denial weapons for urban assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers. Production of Iskander missiles reportedly increased with Chinese assistance. Continued delivery of new Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft enhances tactical aviation. RUF is deploying "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations and new "Molniya" loitering munitions. They demonstrate effective counter-UAV capabilities. RUF Aerospace Forces continue large-scale aerial bombardments with FAB-1500s. New reports of RUF tactical aviation activity and KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force reports).
  • Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus. Actively exploits geopolitical events (NATO summit, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) to sow discord and discredit Western support for Ukraine. Persistent dehumanization of Ukrainians. Strong focus on internal security narratives to justify repression and control information (Starlink ban, internet outages, arrests of alleged foreign agents/saboteurs, expanded counter-terrorism investigations, recent arrest of St. Petersburg resident, conviction of saboteur near Crimea). Continues to project strength and self-sufficiency (claims of 13,000 missiles, no need for Iran). Uses "Muslim expansion" narratives to incite internal divisions. Actively attempts to discredit UAF claims and operations, including portraying UAF personnel as torturers or liars about territory. Actively monitors and spins US political developments (e.g., Trump's statements). RUF Defense Minister Belousov leverages SCO platform to emphasize global instability and threats from "external actors." The claim about Italy considering leaving NATO is a clear example of RUF IO attempting to sow discord in the Alliance. New RUF channels disseminate content showing alleged UAF POW discussing poor command relations and "meat grinder" tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO campaign). RUF FSB claims increased Ukrainian special services activity in Russia for sabotage/terrorist acts via social media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim). RUF is promoting the narrative of "thousands of drones constantly hunting Ukrainians" in 2026, including more than Shaheds, as a psychological operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF IO will highlight the conviction of the Ukrainian saboteur and ongoing counter-terrorism operations within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • New Offensive Axis: Demonstrated intent and concentration for a significant ground offensive on the Sumy axis.
  • Improved Protected Mobility: Deployment of "Erzatz-BTRs" to reduce infantry losses.
  • Enhanced UAV Capabilities: Increased use of thermal-equipped "Geranium-Hunters" for night precision strikes. Increased use of FPV drones against armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Gnome Squad" drone footage indicates continued reconnaissance and potentially strike operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Persistent Counter-Drone Operations: Demonstrated effectiveness in identifying and destroying UAF reconnaissance and strike drones, claiming 50 shot down overnight.
  • Targeting Military-Industrial Complex: Consistent and successful strikes on UAF defense industry assets (Kramatorsk UAV workshop).
  • Disruption of UAF Reinforcement: Demonstrated capability to detect and disrupt UAF troop movements (e.g., near Olgovka).
  • Adaptive IO: Immediate pivot to exploit SCO platform to reinforce global instability narrative and justify Russian military actions. Continued internal security crackdown to deter intelligence collection, as seen with the St. Petersburg arrest. Increased focus on discrediting UAF command and morale through alleged POW testimonies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF is publicly claiming successful apprehension of an agent helping Ukraine prepare "terrorist acts" in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, aiming to validate internal security focus). RUF continues to use TOS-1A flamethrowers for direct assault support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Successful Deep Strikes: Demonstrated ability to hit high-value military-industrial and logistics targets deep inside RF territory (Atlant AERO, Tokmak train). UAF is employing large-scale loitering munitions (Aeroprakt A-22 based) for deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Adaptive Air Defense: Confirmed use of F-16 and Mi-24 for UAV engagements, alongside ground systems, indicating multi-layered and flexible AD. Successfully intercepted 41 RUF UAVs (UAF AF claim), and 4 Shaheds by Southern Defense Forces.
  • Effective Counter-UAV Tactics: Including direct engagement with small arms (shotgun against FPV).
  • Precision Targeting of Personnel: Liquidation of RUF Motor Rifle Battalion Commander.
  • Tactical Air Support: Use of Su-24M with FAB-500 UMPK for precision glide bomb strikes with reported extended range.
  • POW Capture Operations: Successful large-scale capture of RUF personnel in Sumy Oblast, indicating effective defensive and localized offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Enhanced Internal Security: SBU and National Police are conducting security measures in central Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The recent SBU/National Police detention of an RF agent attempting to blow up a military vehicle in Kyiv demonstrates continued proactive counter-intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF:
  • Sustained Air/Missile Production: Appears able to sustain missile and UAV production, reportedly with Chinese assistance for Iskanders.
  • Ground Logistics Vulnerabilities: Demonstrated by successful UAF train interdiction near Tokmak.
  • Internal Disruptions: Significant ammunition depot fire in Transbaikalia due to natural causes indicates potential materiel losses and logistical strain. Flight restrictions and mobile internet outages in RF due to UAF deep strikes also impact internal logistics and C2.
  • Volunteer Dependence: Continued appeals for donations for basic supplies (drones, food, comms) for frontline units suggest ongoing logistical gaps or decentralized procurement. The current "donation drive for Airborne Forces" and for the Pokrovsk direction also highlights this. RUF channels are amplifying donation requests for drones for their forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sanctions Evasion: Reports of Czech companies supplying machine tools via third countries indicate persistent challenges in enforcing sanctions.
  • Internal Resource Prioritization: Discussions among RUF milbloggers about "humanitarian aid" for VKS "space marines" being overlooked suggest potential resource prioritization issues or dissatisfaction within military branches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Critical Western Aid: Continued international support (Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs, New Zealand, UK aid, Canadian training) remains crucial for sustainment.
  • Domestic Defense Industry: Active but remains a high-value RUF target (Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv/Kulbakino).
  • Logistics Protection: Fortifying routes with anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Air-launched Glide Bomb Capability: Introduction of Su-24M FAB-500 UMPK expands long-range strike capability.
  • Digital Mobilization Platform: "Rezerv+" app facilitates military registration. Reported "glitches" or failures could impact force generation. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UAF source, technical issue). UAF Ministry of Defense has confirmed technical issues with "Rezerv+" app. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Maintains centralized command for strategic operations. Internal messaging indicates some dissatisfaction regarding military leadership and re-socialization challenges for veterans. Increased internal security measures and communication control (Starlink ban, mobile internet outages, expanded counter-terrorism investigations, St. Petersburg arrest, photographer's conviction, conviction of saboteur near Crimea) reflect concerns about information leakage and maintaining control in occupied territories and border regions. Belousov's public statements align with a unified strategic narrative and engagement in international forums (SCO). RUF channels are amplifying alleged POW testimonies to discredit UAF command. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). RUF Defence Minister Belousov continues high-level diplomatic meetings (with India) to reinforce strategic partnerships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Demonstrates effective operational control, coordinating deep strikes, active defense, and adapting to new threats. High-level diplomatic engagement continues to reinforce stable political and military leadership. UAF continues to publicize successful POW capture operations, demonstrating effective C2 in the field. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Ministry of Defense has confirmed technical issues with "Rezerv+" app. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicating transparency, but also a potential C2 challenge for force generation). The SBU/National Police detention of an RF agent in Kyiv highlights effective counter-intelligence C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The signing of the Special Tribunal agreement reinforces high-level strategic C2 in international legal efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains strong defensive lines, particularly on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes, successfully repelling multiple RUF assaults. Southern Defense Forces report maintaining defensive posture with RUF continuing unsuccessful assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Offensive Capabilities: Demonstrated effective deep strike and interdiction capabilities against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets, including successful BDA. Operationalizing air-launched glide bombs (Su-24M FAB-500 UMPK). UAF drone units continue to inflict BDA on RUF targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video). UAF is employing large-scale loitering munitions (Aeroprakt A-22 based) for deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Air Defense: Adaptive and multi-layered, showing successful interceptions with diverse assets, including new integrations (F-16). Effective against mass UAV attacks. Southern Defense Forces report destruction of 4 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Force Generation: Ongoing training with modern combat equipment (58th Motorized Infantry Brigade, Canadian training) and continued international support for drone production. Regular reporting on RUF losses indicates active engagement and assessment. Focus on volunteer recruitment is highlighted (e.g., "Rambo" volunteer story). UAF Ministry of Defense confirmed technical issues with "Rezerv+" app, which could affect force generation (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Updated RUF loss figures provided by OTU "Kharkiv" indicate continued UAF effectiveness in inflicting casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Military-Industrial Complex: Reported active work at Mykolaiv aircraft repair plant and Kulbakino airfield suggests continued UAF repair and production capacity.
• Personnel Readiness: The capture of 15 RUF POWs in Sumy Oblast indicates high readiness and effectiveness of UAF airborne assault troops and affiliated units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF is publicizing stories of well-trained young lieutenants choosing infantry command. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO, demonstrating morale).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Successful deep strike on "Atlant AERO" military aviation plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.
  • Successful interdiction and disabling of a 40+ wagon RUF cargo train near Tokmak.
  • Repelled 10 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction and 3 on the Kherson direction. Southern Defense Forces report RUF unsuccessful assault attempts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Successful UAF SOF destruction of a RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction.
  • High rate of RUF UAV interceptions (24 of 41 launched, Air Force of Ukraine; 52 of 71-97 overall claimed destroyed by UAF), with all remaining UAVs in Odesa direction neutralized. 4 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed in Southern operational zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Confirmed F-16 and Mi-24 UAV kills, demonstrating adaptive AD.
  • UAF drone units continue to inflict BDA on RUF personnel and equipment. UAF video shows drone engagements and destruction of RUF vehicles and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Successful interception of ballistic missile targeting Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Liquidation of RUF Motor Rifle Battalion Commander, Major Andrey Yartsev.
  • Reported 1100 RUF casualties in the past day. Updated total RUF losses provided by OTU "Kharkiv" as of 26 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deployment and confirmed use of Su-24M with FAB-500 UMPK for glide bomb strikes, increasing stand-off attack capability.
  • Capture of 15 RUF POWs by UAF airborne assault troops and affiliated units in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video).
  • SBU and National Police conducting security measures in central Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - indicative of proactive internal security).
  • SBU and National Police detained an RF agent attempting to blow up a military vehicle in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Agreement signed in Strasbourg for the creation of a Special Tribunal against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Ballistic missile strike on Dnipro resulted in 22 KIA and over 300 wounded, with significant civilian infrastructure damage. The death toll from Dnipro attack rose to 20. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF capture of Yalta and Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) poses a direct threat to Konstantinovka logistics. RUF claims to have captured Komar. RUF video confirms use of TOS-1A in the capture of Yalta. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Successful RUF strike on UAF UAV assembly workshop in Kramatorsk airfield.
  • RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske, Kherson Oblast, killed one civilian. Total 3 killed, 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast overnight. Recent RUF shelling causing heavy civilian damage in Kherson Oblast confirmed by ASTRA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Continued FPV drone and artillery strikes by RUF on Nikopol district, causing civilian damage.
  • RUF claimed repulsion of UAF counterattacks near Zelena Dolyna and Kolodyazi.
  • Reported "glitch" in the "Rezerv+" application for military registration. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UAF source, could impact force generation). Ministry of Defense confirmed technical issues with "Rezerv+" app. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RUF claims of controlling the "main part" of Chasiv Yar (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
  • RUF claims destruction of a camouflaged UAF T-80 tank. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, BDA needed). RUF claims heavy UAF losses from FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF content, BDA needed).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: Continued high rate of RUF air/missile attacks necessitates sustained supply of AD munitions.
• Counter-Battery Systems: Ongoing RUF artillery activity requires continued focus on counter-battery fire.
• Advanced EW Capabilities: To counter RUF's adaptive drone technologies (e.g., "white radio-controlled Shaheds," "Geranium-Hunters," and FPV drones).
• Protected Mobility: The appearance of "Erzatz-BTRs" indicates RUF's recognition of the need for improved protection; UAF should ensure it has sufficient anti-armor capabilities and protected transport.
• Humanitarian Aid: Significant needs in areas impacted by RUF strikes (e.g., Konstantinovka, Dnipro, Nikopol, Kherson Oblast).
• Military-Industrial Complex Protection: Continued RUF targeting of defense industry assets (Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv/Kulbakino) necessitates enhanced hardening and dispersion measures.
• Digital Infrastructure Reliability: The "Rezerv+" app issue highlights the need for robust and secure digital infrastructure for military administration.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF:
  • Fabricated Israel-Iran Conflict: Continues to use this narrative to deflect and justify broader geopolitical stances, attempting to discredit US foreign policy (e.g., Trump's claims of Iranian nuclear facilities erased). Countered by CIA assessment that Iranian nuclear program "severely damaged." TASS reports that several new countries may join the "Abraham Accords," a development RUF may spin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO monitoring US foreign policy).
  • NATO Summit Exploitation: Attempts to portray NATO disunity and Zelenskyy's isolation. Bloomberg source echoed by RUF channels claims Zelenskyy was "sad" and Trump didn't mention Russia. The claim of Italy considering leaving NATO is a new, overt attempt to exploit perceived Western divisions. RUF channels are amplifying opinions from Poland regarding billions for Kyiv, attempting to create internal dissent among allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Trump's promise to NATO allies about no Russian attack under his presidency, which RUF may amplify to highlight US isolationism or perceived control over NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Orban's statement regarding Hungarian opposition to Ukraine's EU accession, attempting to sow disunity in EU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dehumanization: Continued use of derogatory terms for Ukrainians ("Khokhly").
  • Internal Security Narrative: Emphasis on counter-sabotage operations and detention of foreign agents/terrorists to justify internal control and repressive measures. The St. Petersburg arrest and the photographer's conviction reinforce this. The TASS report on MMA fighter Akhyadov's alleged plot highlights this narrative. FSB claims increased Ukrainian special services activity in Russia for sabotage/terrorist acts via social media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, pushing internal security narrative). RUF channels are publicly broadcasting the "unmasking" of agents helping Ukraine prepare "terrorist acts" in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, bolstering internal security image). RUF Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova provided an explanation for a Russian plane flying to New York as a routine staff rotation, indicating sensitivity to international perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). The conviction of a Ukrainian saboteur near Crimea, with FSB footage, reinforces this narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The IED explosion at the Ingushetia МВД college may be spun by RUF as "Ukrainian-backed terrorism" or internal threats requiring more control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Portrayal of Strength and Self-Sufficiency: Claims of increased missile production ("13,000 missiles," "no need for Iran"), new aircraft deliveries (Su-35, Su-34), and technological advancements to boost domestic morale. RUF channels promoting "thousands of drones" hunting Ukrainians in 2026, including more than Shaheds, as a future threat narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO).
  • Veteran Re-socialization Challenges: RUF acknowledges difficulties for returning veterans, but attempts to frame it as societal rather than systemic issues. "Fighterbomber" discussion on VKS 'space marines' and humanitarian aid indicates internal discourse on this topic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • "Muslim Expansion" Narrative: Repeated propaganda aimed at inciting ethnic/religious division within RF to justify internal security (St. Basil's Cathedral narrative).
  • Discrediting UAF: Claims of UAF "lying" about territorial control, torture of POWs, internal instability, and economic weakness. New RUF content features alleged UAF POWs claiming poor command relations, "meat grinder" tactics, and a general lack of concern for soldiers by their commanders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, aiming to degrade UAF morale and legitimacy). RUF channels claiming destruction of a camouflaged UAF T-80 tank and heavy UAF losses from FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, demonstrating BDA). RUF claims to have captured a Ukrainian soldier near Crimea who was part of a sabotage group, portraying UAF as infiltrators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Discrediting Western Media/Influence: Amplifying Trump's rhetoric against "Voice of America," and general criticism of US authorities and media.
  • Normalization of Conflict: Promoting "Bryansk Oblast: Territory of Development" despite UAF attacks, and showcasing combat training, aims to portray normalcy and resilience. RUF channels are releasing video footage of drone operations in Sumy Oblast, framed as "creating a buffer zone," attempting to normalize expansion into Ukrainian territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). "Два майора" fundraising for Pokrovsk direction normalizes ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Claim of Polish Mercenaries: RUF claims Polish speech was heard during the capture of Yalta, a common narrative element to exaggerate foreign involvement.
  • Global Instability Justification: RUF Defense Minister Belousov uses SCO platform to state the global military-political situation is worsening due to "external actors" and justify ongoing "special military operation" in Ukraine. Belousov's meeting with Indian Defense Minister reinforcing "cooperation in defense." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Economic Discontent: RUF channel "Старше Эдды" expresses strong internal criticism about growing economic inequality in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal discourse, indicates domestic pressure point). RUF channels are attempting to frame internal struggles with sarcastic proverbs: "A holiday for a soldier is like for a horse. A muzzle in flowers, and a neck in sweat." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal discourse). "Новости Москвы" report on fraud losses for Russians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Indicates economic vulnerability).
  • Nostalgia/Hero Worship: RUF channels are publicizing images related to deceased military figures, possibly for morale or propaganda. (LOW CONFIDENCE - specific context unclear).
• UAF:
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Active messaging around President Zelenskyy's meetings with international leaders (Trump, E5, NATO SG) to reinforce strong political support (e.g., PACE address, Special Tribunal agreement signing, Canadian military personnel seeing off Ukrainian defenders). UAF channels amplifying Trump's promise to NATO allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Accountability Narrative: Strong emphasis on the creation of a Special Tribunal against Russia for the crime of aggression. Council of Europe and Ukraine announce Special Tribunal against Russian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Office of the Prosecutor General directly attributes the Special Tribunal to President Zelenskyy's efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Highlighting RUF War Crimes: Publicizing civilian casualties and damage from RUF strikes (Dnipro, Nikopol, Kherson) to garner international sympathy and condemnation. UAF channels are reporting RUF drone strikes on apartment buildings in Donetsk with child wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Death toll from Dnipro attack rose to 20. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video/photo of Kherson shelling aftermath will reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Showcasing Military Successes: Videos and reports on successful UAF strikes (Taganrog, Tokmak, RUF casualties, liquidation of battalion commander), drone operations, and AD, and publishing updated RUF losses to reinforce Ukrainian resilience and military effectiveness. Publicizing the use of Su-24M with FAB-500 UMPK. UAF channels publicize the capture of 15 RUF POWs in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO, demonstrating effectiveness and reinforcing morale). UAF channels are publicizing drone BDA and operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). OTU "Kharkiv" publishing daily RUF loss figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). SBU/National Police detention of RF agent will be highly publicized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Countering "Fatigue" Narrative: Zelenskyy's office directly addressing Western "fatigue" after NATO summit, demonstrating awareness of RUF IO. The Telegraph's framing of NATO "gently outplaying Trump" could be used by UAF IO to counter RUF narratives of disunity.
  • Cyber Operations: Indications of active UAF cyber operations.
  • Commemoration and Public Morale: Public displays of mourning and remembrance (e.g., minute of silence in Zaporizhzhia, KMVA memorial) reinforce national unity and honor fallen defenders.
  • Volunteerism: Stories like "Rambo" (18-year-old volunteer) are being promoted to highlight ongoing domestic support and spirit. UAF channels are promoting stories of well-trained young lieutenants choosing infantry command. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO).
  • Transparency on Internal Issues: UAF Ministry of Defense confirmed technical issues with "Rezerv+" app. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security Operations: SBU and National Police are conducting security measures in central Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The SBU/National Police detention of an RF agent in Kyiv highlights proactive internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Highlighting Disillusionment of RUF Soldiers: The alleged RUF POW video expressing disillusionment and questioning the war will be heavily leveraged by UAF IO to demoralize RUF forces and potentially encourage surrender. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• RUF:
  • Domestic Impact of Deep Strikes: Civilian airport disruptions, mobile internet outages, and ammunition depot fires in border/deep regions due to UAF drone activity could impact public morale and sense of security.
  • Social Issues: Reports of crime (assaults, murders) and internal repression (arrests of activists, censorship concerns regarding "blocked access to favorite sites," St. Petersburg arrest, photographer's conviction, conviction of saboteur) indicate underlying social tensions and an authoritarian approach to control dissent. The conviction of the photographer to 16 years for state treason for a publicly available book will likely reinforce fear and self-censorship. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports on the Department of Hunting being responsible for the Red Book of Russia, which could be spun by UAF to highlight bizarre priorities or a militarized bureaucracy. (LOW CONFIDENCE - indirect impact). The IED explosion in Ingushetia will raise internal security anxieties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Veteran Issues: Re-socialization challenges for veterans could lead to public discontent if unaddressed, potentially impacting future recruitment. "Fighterbomber" discussions on VKS humanitarian aid reflect this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Morale of forces: Continued appeals for donations for basic supplies for frontline units suggest resource shortages or lower morale among some RUF forces. RUF channels are amplifying donation requests for drones for their forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Economic Inequality: Growing public discontent on economic inequality and living standards as expressed by RUF milbloggers could be a significant long-term destabilizing factor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). "Новости Москвы" reporting on AI use in garbage removal is a minor detail but could be seen as an attempt to portray societal progress amidst conflict. (LOW CONFIDENCE - negligible impact). Increased fraud losses reported by "Новости Москвы" will exacerbate economic discontent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Civilian Casualties: High death toll from Dnipro strike (now 22 KIA) will negatively impact civilian morale, but also likely harden resolve against RUF aggression and reinforce the need for stronger AD. Reports of 3 KIA and 13 wounded in Kherson Oblast will further contribute to this sentiment. New reports of children wounded in drone strikes on apartment buildings in Donetsk Oblast will further fuel public outrage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Death toll from Dnipro attack rose to 20. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA video/photo of Kherson shelling aftermath visually reinforces the civilian impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Resilience: Continued civilian efforts for housing restoration, community services, and adaptation to war conditions (bomb shelters for ID services) demonstrate resilience. Efforts to improve public transport in Zaporizhzhia demonstrate civilian administration resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Commemoration: Day of Mourning in Dnipro for victims highlights the human cost and collective grief. The daily minute of silence also serves this purpose.
  • Support for Veterans: Swimming programs for veterans demonstrate UAF efforts for rehabilitation.
  • Early morning drone activity and associated alerts will continue to cause public anxiety. Civilian incidents like the traffic accident in Lviv Oblast are being reported by UAF channels, which could potentially impact public trust in local authorities or reflect on internal stability if not handled well.
  • Digital System Reliability: Reports of glitches in the "Rezerv+" app could cause frustration among the public regarding military administrative processes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Ministry of Defense confirmed technical issues with "Rezerv+" app. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security Measures: Security checks in central Kyiv could cause temporary inconvenience but are likely to be viewed positively as proactive measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The SBU/National Police detention of an RF agent in Kyiv reinforces this positive perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Continued Strong Support for Ukraine:
  • High-level diplomatic engagement: Zelenskyy's meetings with Trump, E5 leaders, and NATO SG reinforce strong political support.
  • Legal Action: Signing of the agreement for a Special Tribunal against Russia is a significant diplomatic and legal step. Council of Europe and Ukraine announce Special Tribunal against Russian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The Office of the Prosecutor General highlights this as a "turning point for global justice." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Military Aid: Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs, New Zealand and UK announcing new aid packages (e.g., 350 AD missiles purchased from frozen Russian assets), Canadian military training.
• Challenges to Sanctions Enforcement: Czech companies reportedly supplying machine tools to RUF via workarounds.
• RUF Diplomatic Stance: Russia's Deputy FM states Ukraine's non-aligned status is integral to any settlement, indicating no change in core demands. RUF Defense Minister Belousov leverages the SCO forum to reiterate concerns over global instability and the role of "external actors" in exacerbating conflicts. Belousov meets with Indian Defense Minister to discuss defense cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Russian Ambassador to Japan will attend Nagasaki ceremony, signaling diplomatic normalization efforts by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Divisions within Western Alliances (RUF Narrative): RUF attempts to amplify statements by figures like Viktor Orban (Hungary) and a Times columnist to portray disunity within NATO and Western support for Ukraine. The claim about Italy considering leaving NATO is a new, prominent example of this tactic. Bloomberg columnist states NATO summit's main goal was keeping US in alliance and military aid to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO amplifying Western self-criticism). RUF channels are amplifying opinions from Poland regarding billions for Kyiv, attempting to create internal dissent among allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Trump's promise to NATO allies about no Russian attack under his presidency (via WP), which RUF will exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Orban's anti-EU accession stance for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• International Monitoring Issues: IAEA losing track of Iranian enriched uranium after fabricated Israel-Iran conflict, a development RUF will leverage. US set to meet with Iran next week, a development RUF IO may try to spin. TASS reports that several new countries may join the "Abraham Accords," a development RUF may spin to show shifting alliances and US influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO monitoring US foreign policy).
• CIA assessment regarding Iran's nuclear program being "severely damaged" indicates ongoing US-Iran engagement and a potential shift in regional dynamics that RUF will closely monitor and exploit.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Northern Axis Offensive: RUF will initiate a large-scale, multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy axis within the next 24-72 hours, likely supported by a high volume of KAB and tactical aviation strikes, including FAB-1500s. The primary objective will be to fix and draw UAF reserves away from the Donbas and potentially seize key border towns to expand the "buffer zone" and threaten Sumy city. This will be accompanied by efforts to disrupt UAF reinforcement. Despite the capture of 15 POWs, the large concentration of RUF forces still indicates a significant threat. RUF will use propaganda to justify this as "creating a buffer zone." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Consolidation & Advance: RUF will intensify ground assaults and combined arms operations on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, leveraging recent gains in Yalta, Dyleyevka, and Komar. Their immediate objective is to gain full fire control over UAF logistics routes into Konstantinovka and possibly initiate direct assaults on the city. This will include persistent artillery and drone attacks on civilian areas in Nikopol and continued pressure on Chasiv Yar, with RUF continuing to claim control of the city. The observed use of TOS-1A in Yalta indicates willingness to use highly destructive systems for rapid breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Continued Strategic Attrition & Civilian Targeting: RUF will maintain a high tempo of precision and massed ballistic missile, cruise missile, and Shahed UAV strikes against critical infrastructure (especially energy and railway) and urban centers, aiming to inflict mass civilian casualties and degrade UAF's warfighting capacity and societal morale. This will include continued targeting of UAF defense industry assets (like the Kramatorsk workshop, Mykolaiv/Kulbakino airfield) and the deliberate targeting of residential areas with drones to maximize terror, as seen in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Escalated Cyber and Information Warfare: RUF will intensify cyberattacks concurrent with military operations, targeting UAF C2 and public information, while continuing to propagate narratives of Ukrainian internal instability and Western disunity. This will also include amplified dehumanizing rhetoric and narratives intended to incite internal divisions within RF (e.g., leveraging economic inequality discontent), and attempts to leverage any US-Iran engagement. Increased internal security crackdowns will be publicized to portray effective counter-intelligence, particularly focusing on alleged Ukrainian recruitment for sabotage and "terrorist acts," with accompanying media releases from FSB. RUF will extensively utilize alleged POW testimonies and footage of FSB operations (e.g., Crimea saboteur, Kyiv agent) to discredit UAF and boost internal morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Synchronized Multi-Front Breakthrough & Strategic Paralysis: RUF launches a fully synchronized, large-scale offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk) axes simultaneously, aiming for a rapid operational breakthrough and deep penetration. This would be preceded by an intense, multi-layered saturation missile and drone attack on Kyiv, key C2 nodes, strategic airfields, and UAF reserve staging areas, designed to paralyze UAF response. This operation would be supported by widespread sabotage operations behind UAF lines, potentially including those facilitated by agents like the recently arrested St. Petersburg resident or those claimed by FSB to be recruiting for "terrorist acts," or even the deployment of large UAF-style loitering munitions to create confusion and damage behind lines. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully)
• Hybrid Escalation & Internal RF Destabilization: Concurrent with offensive military actions, RUF initiates a widespread, coordinated hybrid campaign across Ukraine, combined with efforts to escalate internal tensions within RF (e.g., through intensified "Muslim expansion" narratives, justifying increased internal repression), potentially creating a pretext for broader mobilization or a more aggressive shift in domestic policy. The recent TASS report on MMA fighter Akhyadov's alleged plot, combined with growing economic discontent and narratives of Western interference, suggests an internal security concern RUF might exploit for broader narratives. This could include further restrictions on internet access and increased arrests, with RUF media amplifying these actions as necessary for national security. The IED explosion in Ingushetia could be a precursor to such a narrative, leading to a broader crackdown. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-72 hours: High probability of major RUF ground offensive on Sumy axis. UAF decision point on reserve deployment.
• Next 72 hours: Continued RUF pressure on Donetsk axes. UAF decision point on defending Konstantinovka and Toretsk supply lines.
• Immediate: Continued high frequency of RUF air/missile strikes nationwide. UAF decision point on AD asset allocation.
• Ongoing: RUF hybrid warfare will continue, requiring persistent UAF counter-IO.
• Immediate: UAF should prepare to address public concerns regarding "Rezerv+" app functionality, ensuring continued force generation.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes (GROUND PRIORITY #1). Focus on identifying RUF unit movements, logistical build-ups, and force concentrations (e.g., the reported 52,000 personnel) to provide real-time warning for any large-scale ground offensive. Special attention on identifying RUF efforts to disrupt UAF reinforcement and any indications of FAB-1500 targeting. Validate the extent of the 15 POW capture operation and exploit captured personnel for further intelligence.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Task SOF and drone reconnaissance units to conduct aggressive interdiction and target acquisition operations around Yalta, Dyleyevka, and Komar (Donetsk Oblast) to disrupt RUF consolidation efforts and prevent full fire control over Konstantinovka logistics. Prioritize targets that would enable RUF fire control, including RUF 35th Army fire support assets (e.g., D-30 type howitzers) and TOS-1A systems. Target RUF commanders at all levels, leveraging intelligence on individual liquidations (e.g., Major Yartsev). Assess BDA from "Shevchenko" footage and RUF claimed T-80 destruction.
  3. URGENT: Enhance intelligence collection on RUF's new "white radio-controlled Shaheds" and "Geranium-Hunters," and their FPV drone tactics against armored vehicles. Develop and deploy countermeasures (EW, improved AD systems, new tactics) against these adapted UAVs.
  4. HIGH: Continue deep strikes against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets within RF territory, particularly targeting railway infrastructure following the success near Tokmak and confirmed ammunition depots (e.g., Transbaikalia). Exploit reported internal disruptions (internet outages, airport suspensions) for further targeting. Prioritize targeting of RUF air repair plants and airfields like the Mykolaiv plant and Kulbakino airfield based on RUF reconnaissance reports, indicating their significance. Deploy and assess the effectiveness of Aeroprakt A-22-based loitering munitions.
  5. HIGH: Increase counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize RUF agents and saboteurs within Ukraine, particularly in major urban centers and critical infrastructure nodes, following RUF's propaganda regarding "diversions" and recent internal security investigations (e.g., Akhyadov case, St. Petersburg arrest, FSB claims of Ukrainian recruitment for "terrorist acts," Crimea saboteur conviction, Kyiv agent detention). Leverage SBU and National Police operations in Kyiv for pattern analysis and publicize successes.
  6. MEDIUM: Monitor internal security developments within RF, particularly in volatile regions like Ingushetia, to assess the potential for internal unrest or diversion of RUF resources.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reposition and reinforce ABM and conventional AD assets to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv regions. Anticipate coordinated air and missile strikes designed to support RUF ground offensives and maximize civilian casualties. Prioritize protection of critical civilian infrastructure, railway networks, and areas like Nikopol that are under constant FPV drone and artillery threat.
  2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement enhanced passive and active force protection measures at all UAF training, assembly, and defense industry sites nationwide, including the Mykolaiv aircraft repair plant and Kulbakino airfield. This includes improved camouflage, dispersion, and hardening against precision strikes (e.g., those seen in Kramatorsk) and heavy glide bombs (FAB-1500).
  3. HIGH: Accelerate training and operational integration of newly acquired Western air defense systems and aircraft (e.g., F-16s) to increase interception rates against the full spectrum of RUF air threats, especially the adapted UAVs and ballistic missiles.
  4. HIGH: Expedite the full operational deployment of UAF Su-24M with FAB-500 UMPK for expanded stand-off strike capabilities against RUF ground positions and logistics.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate all ground forces on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to maximum alert. Position strategic reserves for rapid counter-attack and reinforcement. Ensure robust anti-armor capabilities are forward deployed to counter potential heavy APC (Erzatz-BTR) advances. Exploit the recent POW capture to further disrupt RUF morale and local command.
  2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive lines around Konstantinovka and Toretsk immediately. Establish robust secondary and tertiary defensive positions to absorb and counter any RUF breakthrough from the Yalta/Dyleyevka/Komar direction. Address and counter RUF claims of controlling Chasiv Yar.
  3. HIGH: Increase counter-battery fire missions, particularly against RUF MLRS systems (e.g., Grad, Tornado-S) and observed artillery concentrations (e.g., in Zaporizhzhia), to degrade RUF fire support. Continue offensive actions where possible, as indicated by the reported 1100 RUF casualties and successes against RUF assault groups.

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an intensive, evidence-based international IO campaign detailing RUF war crimes in Dnipro and Kherson Oblast, specifically highlighting the targeting of civilian areas, a passenger train, and the rising casualty count. Amplify reports of children wounded in apartment building strikes. Push for immediate and robust international condemnation and accountability through the ICC and Special Tribunal, leveraging the Council of Europe's announcement and the Office of the Prosecutor General's statements.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Proactively publicize UAF's operational successes (Taganrog plant strike, Tokmak train interdiction, F-16 UAV kill, successful ballistic missile interception, updated RUF losses including the liquidation of Major Yartsev, the use of Su-24M with UMPK, the capture of 15 RUF POWs in Sumy Oblast, and the detention of the RF agent in Kyiv) to reinforce Ukrainian resilience and military effectiveness, directly countering RUF propaganda. Highlight the continuous support from international partners, including Canadian training and the commitment of young volunteers like "Rambo" and stories of dedicated young lieutenants.
  3. URGENT: Counter RUF narratives by emphasizing the unity of international support and the tangible outcomes of recent diplomatic engagements (e.g., Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, new aid packages, Special Tribunal agreement, Canadian training), directly addressing RUF attempts to portray divisions and fatigue (e.g., Italy leaving NATO, Polish dissent, Trump's statements, Orban's comments). Leverage the Telegraph's framing of NATO "outplaying Trump" to highlight NATO's resilience.
  4. HIGH: Expose RUF's attempts at cultural genocide (e.g., Starlink ban, Ukrainian language suppression in schools) and internal security issues (e.g., Moldovan agents, veteran re-socialization challenges, internal crime, alleged militant plots, photographer's conviction, St. Petersburg arrest, internal economic discontent, Ingushetia IED) to undermine their legitimacy and expose internal vulnerabilities.
  5. HIGH: Reinforce the narrative of Ukraine's commitment to international law and human rights, especially concerning POW treatment, to counter RUF disinformation campaigns, particularly those using alleged POW testimonies. Leverage the alleged RUF POW video expressing disillusionment to further demoralize RUF forces. Address and provide transparency on any internal civilian incidents (e.g., Rezerv+ app glitches) that RUF IO could exploit, emphasizing efforts to resolve them quickly.

END OF REPORT