Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Claims of localized gains, including Yalta and Dyleyevka, are corroborated by RUF sources (Voenkor Kotenok, MoD Russia, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z). RUF claims the "liberation" of Komar by the Vostok Group of Forces (Colonelcassad). UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. The General Staff (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) also provides updated maps for Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts, confirming active combat and claimed RUF advances on these axes. RUF is suppressing UAF counterattacks in the Konstantinovka direction (TASS). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" continues to post photos from the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions, indicating ongoing RUF focus. RUF claims destruction of a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction (Colonelcassad). KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast continue (Повітряні Сили ЗС України). RUF FPV drone strikes claimed destruction of an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR (TASS). Active UAF drone strikes on RUF personnel near Pokrovsk are reported (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" is active in western Novoserhiivka (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). RUF claims that the capture of Yalta will enable fire control of the UAF grouping in Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (TASS). Konstantinovka is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe (РБК-Україна, citing Donetsk OVA). RUF video purportedly shows destruction of UAF artillery and armored vehicles in Alekseyevka (Народная милиция ДНР). RUF continues aerial bombardment of UAF fortified areas near Popov Yar (Народная милиция ДНР, ТАСС, Colonelcassad). RUF claims destruction of a UAF 152-mm Msta-B howitzer by an attack drone (Colonelcassad).
  • Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated" (RUF sources). The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub (Оперативний ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Николаевский Ванёк). RUF claims advancement on Krasnolimansk direction with artillery fire (Басурин). UAF reports destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Intense drone warfare is confirmed in the Serebryanskoye forestry (Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF claims destruction of an ammunition depot near Kolodezi (Colonelcassad).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF official sources confirm an increased casualty count: 20 dead (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO) and nearly 300 wounded (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). Initial reports of 19 dead in Dnipro and 2 in Samara (total 21 KIA in Oblast) are now superseded by the latest update of 20 dead in Dnipro. RUF claims a "powerful strike" on a "locomotive repair plant" or "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" (Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Damage to a passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" is confirmed (Zelenskiy / Official, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація). RUF continues FPV drone and artillery strikes on Nikopol district, causing civilian damage (Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). RUF reports a FAB-1500 strike on UAF in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (ТАСС).
  • Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure. RUF claims a breakthrough in Sumy Oblast by "Black Sea Marines" (Операция Z), and "first reports" of RUF advance (Kotsnews, Старше Эдды, Colonelcassad), accompanied by photos aiming to validate presence in a "buffer zone." KAB launches on Sumy Oblast continue (Повітряні Сили ЗС України). UAF reports destruction of a RUF soldier in Sumy Oblast (STERNENKO). RUF claims an Abrams tank destroyed in Sumy Oblast (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). UAF drone activity over deceased RUF personnel in Sumy Oblast (Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF claims to be advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups (TASS, citing Alaudinov).
  • Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation airstrikes and clashes near Vovchansk, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). RUF conducted at least 7 UAV strikes on Kharkiv city, hitting a civilian enterprise and injuring a 64-year-old man (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight with KABs (Олег Синєгубов, РБК-Україна). UAF reports shooting down an RUF FPV drone near Kharkiv (Оперативний ЗСУ). Ballistic missile targeting Chuhuiv was intercepted (Николаевский Ванёк). SBU and National Police detained a Russian agent in Kharkiv (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF claims destruction of UAF personnel and equipment in the "buffer zone" (Colonelcassad). UAF 3rd Assault Brigade drones inflicting BDA on RUF equipment in Kharkiv Oblast (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF claims successful strike on a UAF command post and UAV control point in Sosnovka, Kharkiv region (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Multiple UAVs detected over Kharkiv Oblast (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Олег Синєгубов, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation airstrikes in Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk. UAF reports RUF reconnaissance UAV activity (Air Force of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is constructing anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. RUF conducted an airstrike on a settlement in Polohy district (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, two missile impacts, two wounded (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). 9 private homes damaged. RUF claims a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky (Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition). RUF continues airstrikes and artillery fire near Poltavka (Воин DV, Colonelcassad). Almost 900 subscribers without power due to RUF attack (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦).
  • Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports 3 Russian army assaults repelled in the Kherson direction. RUF reports FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work (Два майора). RUF disconnected mobile internet in occupied Kherson (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF captured another prisoner on the left bank (Николаевский Ванёк). RUF claims thwarting UAF landing plans on Crimea (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). RUF claims mass UAV attack on Kherson Oblast (ТАСС, Saldo). One civilian killed in RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske (РБК-Україна, Odesa OVA).
  • Odesa Oblast: Three employees were killed in a strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF launched multiple UAVs from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, primarily targeting Vylkove and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. UAF AD destroyed 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs (Сили оборони Півдня України), and all remaining UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast were neutralized as of 252345Z JUN 25 (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України). One Shahed strike on infrastructure in Vylkove (Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF claims striking a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). UAF drone operators destroyed a bridge in the southern direction (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF air defense successfully engaged Shahed drones with F-16 and Mi-24 (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). RUF claims missile strikes on ammunition depots in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Colonelcassad).
  • Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
    • Siversk direction: Clashes near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
    • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. RUF successfully struck a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield (MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, Alex Parker Returns).
    • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar.
  • RF Territory (Various Regions): RF MoD claims 50 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions overnight (ТАСС, Два майора). AV БогомаZ reports 6 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted. A significant fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, due to natural fires (ASTRA, ТАСС, Colonelcassad). UAF claims 8 RUF oil depots hit by drone attacks (Оперативний ЗСУ). "Aeroflot" adjusted flight schedules due to restrictions over Kazan, Samara, and Saratov (ТАСС, ASTRA). Temporary flight restrictions imposed and lifted at Moscow's Vnukovo and Kaluga airports due to UAV threats (ТАСС, Новости Москвы). Mobile internet outages reported in Kuban and Rostov Oblasts (ASTRA). UAF cyber operations indicated (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno). Internal security concerns noted with arrests of Moldovan intelligence agents and a "terrorist supporter" in St. Petersburg (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns). RUF continues to receive new batches of Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft (MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Fighterbomber). RUF sources claim no longer needing Iran's help, having accumulated 13,000 missiles (Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS citing FT).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Recent heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, affecting air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions).
• The confirmed fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Transbaikalia due to natural fires implies dry conditions and fire hazards in some parts of RF territory, which could impact local air quality and hinder ground movement in the vicinity.
• A reported fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, could release hazardous materials, impacting the local environment if proximate to logistical routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations, notably on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with confirmed captures of Yalta and Dyleyevka, and claimed capture of Komar. RUF is consolidating gains and attempting to establish fire control over UAF logistics into Konstantinovka. UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks.
• Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction, claiming Petrovske (Hrekivka), while UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is actively pushing back near Ridkodub. Drone warfare remains intense in Serebryanskoye forestry.
• Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: RUF continues probing attacks and KAB strikes. A large RUF force (52,000 personnel) remains a critical threat on the Sumy axis. UAF is actively maintaining defensive lines, conducting counter-drone operations, and enhancing defense industry activity in Kharkiv. Continued RUF reconnaissance UAV and tactical aviation activity.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes, bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels, and responding to power infrastructure damage.
• Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 3 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and civilian evacuations, and has disconnected mobile internet in occupied areas to control information. RUF KAB launches confirmed.
• Odesa Oblast: RUF conducted mass UAV strikes from the Black Sea, which were largely neutralized by UAF AD. RUF targets UAF logistics and civilian infrastructure in the region. UAF demonstrates effective multi-layered air defense responses.
• RF Territory: Widespread UAF drone activity continues deep inside Russia, targeting oil depots, military industrial facilities (Atlant AERO), and railway infrastructure. RF AD is highly active in multiple regions. Internal security concerns are evident with reported arrests of foreign agents and saboteurs, and ongoing counter-sabotage operations, alongside significant disruptions to civilian aviation. A large ammunition depot fire due to natural causes could represent a material loss for RUF. RUF appears to be grappling with re-socialization challenges for 'SVO' veterans, potentially impacting future recruitment. UAF cyber operations are indicated. RUF continues to control communication in occupied territories through Starlink bans and mobile internet outages.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial offensive capacity, particularly the 52,000 personnel on the Sumy axis, capable of large-scale ground offensives. Demonstrated sustained attritional gains in Donetsk Oblast, including capture of Yalta and Komar. RUF employs "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs from tank chassis) for better protected infantry transport. RUF ground units are actively engaging UAF infantry and equipment with drone-assisted strikes (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). RUF claims to be able to destroy NATO-supplied equipment (Операция Z) and to suppress UAF counterattacks (TASS).
  • Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers. Production of Iskander missiles reportedly increased with Chinese assistance (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS citing Kyiv Independent). Continued delivery of new Su-35S and Su-34 aircraft (MoD Russia, Fighterbomber) enhances tactical aviation. RUF is deploying "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations and new "Molniya" loitering munitions. They demonstrate effective counter-UAV capabilities (Colonelcassad). RUF Aerospace Forces continue large-scale aerial bombardments with FAB-1500s.
  • Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus. Actively exploits geopolitical events (NATO summit, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) to sow discord and discredit Western support for Ukraine. Persistent dehumanization of Ukrainians. Strong focus on internal security narratives to justify repression and control information (Starlink ban, internet outages, arrests of alleged foreign agents/sabroruers). Continues to project strength and self-sufficiency (claims of 13,000 missiles, no need for Iran). Uses "Muslim expansion" narratives to incite internal divisions. Actively attempts to discredit UAF claims and operations, including portraying UAF personnel as torturers or liars about territory. Actively monitors and spins US political developments (e.g., Trump's statements).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RUF:
  • New Offensive Axis: Demonstrated intent and concentration for a significant ground offensive on the Sumy axis.
  • Improved Protected Mobility: Deployment of "Erzatz-BTRs" to reduce infantry losses.
  • Enhanced UAV Capabilities: Increased use of thermal-equipped "Geranium-Hunters" for night precision strikes.
  • Persistent Counter-Drone Operations: Demonstrated effectiveness in identifying and destroying UAF reconnaissance and strike drones.
  • Targeting Military-Industrial Complex: Consistent and successful strikes on UAF defense industry assets (Kramatorsk UAV workshop).
  • Disruption of UAF Reinforcement: Demonstrated capability to detect and disrupt UAF troop movements (e.g., near Olgovka).
• UAF:
  • Successful Deep Strikes: Demonstrated ability to hit high-value military-industrial and logistics targets deep inside RF territory (Atlant AERO, Tokmak train).
  • Adaptive Air Defense: Confirmed use of F-16 and Mi-24 for UAV engagements, alongside ground systems, indicating multi-layered and flexible AD.
  • Effective Counter-UAV Tactics: Including direct engagement with small arms (shotgun against FPV).
  • Precision Targeting of Personnel: Liquidation of RUF Motor Rifle Battalion Commander.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RUF:
  • Sustained Air/Missile Production: Appears able to sustain missile and UAV production, reportedly with Chinese assistance for Iskanders.
  • Ground Logistics Vulnerabilities: Demonstrated by successful UAF train interdiction near Tokmak.
  • Internal Disruptions: Significant ammunition depot fire in Transbaikalia due to natural causes indicates potential materiel losses and logistical strain. Flight restrictions and mobile internet outages in RF due to UAF deep strikes also impact internal logistics and C2.
  • Volunteer Dependence: Continued appeals for donations for basic supplies (drones, food, comms) for frontline units suggest ongoing logistical gaps or decentralized procurement.
  • Sanctions Evasion: Reports of Czech companies supplying machine tools via third countries indicate persistent challenges in enforcing sanctions.
• UAF:
  • Critical Western Aid: Continued international support (Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs, New Zealand, UK aid, Canadian training) remains crucial for sustainment.
  • Domestic Defense Industry: Active but remains a high-value RUF target (Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv/Kulbakino).
  • Logistics Protection: Fortifying routes with anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF: Maintains centralized command for strategic operations. Internal messaging indicates some dissatisfaction regarding military leadership and re-socialization challenges for veterans. Increased internal security measures and communication control (Starlink ban, mobile internet outages) reflect concerns about information leakage and maintaining control in occupied territories and border regions.
• UAF: Demonstrates effective operational control, coordinating deep strikes, active defense, and adapting to new threats. High-level diplomatic engagement continues to reinforce stable political and military leadership.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains strong defensive lines, particularly on the Sumy/Kharkiv axes, successfully repelling multiple RUF assaults.
• Offensive Capabilities: Demonstrated effective deep strike and interdiction capabilities against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets, including successful BDA.
• Air Defense: Adaptive and multi-layered, showing successful interceptions with diverse assets, including new integrations (F-16).
• Force Generation: Ongoing training with modern combat equipment (58th Motorized Infantry Brigade, Canadian training) and continued international support for drone production. Regular reporting on RUF losses indicates active engagement and assessment.
• Military-Industrial Complex: Reported active work at Mykolaiv aircraft repair plant and Kulbakino airfield suggests continued UAF repair and production capacity.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Successful deep strike on "Atlant AERO" military aviation plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.
  • Successful interdiction and disabling of a 40+ wagon RUF cargo train near Tokmak.
  • Repelled 10 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction and 3 on the Kherson direction.
  • Successful UAF SOF destruction of a RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction.
  • High rate of RUF UAV interceptions (24 of 41 launched, Air Force of Ukraine; 52 of 71-97 overall claimed destroyed by UAF), with all remaining UAVs in Odesa direction neutralized.
  • Confirmed F-16 and Mi-24 UAV kills, demonstrating adaptive AD.
  • UAF drone units continue to inflict BDA on RUF personnel and equipment.
  • Successful interception of ballistic missile targeting Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Liquidation of RUF Motor Rifle Battalion Commander, Major Andrey Yartsev.
  • Reported 1100 RUF casualties in the past day (Оперативний ЗСУ).
• Setbacks:
  • Ballistic missile strike on Dnipro resulted in 20 KIA and over 300 wounded, with significant civilian infrastructure damage.
  • RUF capture of Yalta and Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) poses a direct threat to Konstantinovka logistics. RUF claims to have captured Komar.
  • Successful RUF strike on UAF UAV assembly workshop in Kramatorsk airfield.
  • RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske, Kherson Oblast, killed one civilian.
  • Continued FPV drone and artillery strikes by RUF on Nikopol district, causing civilian damage.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: Continued high rate of RUF air/missile attacks necessitates sustained supply of AD munitions.
• Counter-Battery Systems: Ongoing RUF artillery activity requires continued focus on counter-battery fire.
• Advanced EW Capabilities: To counter RUF's adaptive drone technologies (e.g., "white radio-controlled Shaheds," "Geranium-Hunters").
• Protected Mobility: The appearance of "Erzatz-BTRs" indicates RUF's recognition of the need for improved protection; UAF should ensure it has sufficient anti-armor capabilities and protected transport.
• Humanitarian Aid: Significant needs in areas impacted by RUF strikes (e.g., Konstantinovka, Dnipro, Nikopol).
• Military-Industrial Complex Protection: Continued RUF targeting of defense industry assets (Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv/Kulbakino) necessitates enhanced hardening and dispersion measures.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF:
  • Fabricated Israel-Iran Conflict: Continues to use this narrative to deflect and justify broader geopolitical stances, attempting to discredit US foreign policy (e.g., Trump's claims of Iranian nuclear facilities erased).
  • NATO Summit Exploitation: Attempts to portray NATO disunity and Zelenskyy's isolation (e.g., Global Times article, citing Bild, Orban).
  • Dehumanization: Continued use of derogatory terms for Ukrainians ("Khokhly").
  • Internal Security Narrative: Emphasis on counter-sabotage operations and detention of foreign agents/terrorists to justify internal control and repressive measures.
  • Portrayal of Strength and Self-Sufficiency: Claims of increased missile production ("13,000 missiles," "no need for Iran"), new aircraft deliveries (Su-35, Su-34), and technological advancements to boost domestic morale.
  • Veteran Re-socialization Challenges: RUF acknowledges difficulties for returning veterans, but attempts to frame it as societal rather than systemic issues.
  • "Muslim Expansion" Narrative: Repeated propaganda aimed at inciting ethnic/religious division within RF to justify internal security (St. Basil's Cathedral narrative).
  • Discrediting UAF: Claims of UAF "lying" about territorial control, torture of POWs, internal instability, and economic weakness.
  • Discrediting Western Media/Influence: Amplifying Trump's rhetoric against "Voice of America," and general criticism of US authorities and media.
  • Normalization of Conflict: Promoting "Bryansk Oblast: Territory of Development" despite UAF attacks, and showcasing combat training, aims to portray normalcy and resilience.
  • Claim of Polish Mercenaries: RUF claims Polish speech was heard during the capture of Yalta (TASS), a common narrative element to exaggerate foreign involvement.
• UAF:
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Active messaging around President Zelenskyy's meetings with international leaders (Trump, E5, NATO SG) to reinforce strong political support (e.g., PACE address, Special Tribunal agreement signing, Canadian military personnel seeing off Ukrainian defenders).
  • Accountability Narrative: Strong emphasis on the creation of a Special Tribunal against Russia for the crime of aggression.
  • Highlighting RUF War Crimes: Publicizing civilian casualties and damage from RUF strikes (Dnipro, Nikopol) to garner international sympathy and condemnation.
  • Showcasing Military Successes: Videos and reports on successful UAF strikes (Taganrog, Tokmak, RUF casualties, liquidation of battalion commander), drone operations, and AD, and publishing updated RUF losses to reinforce Ukrainian resilience and military effectiveness.
  • Countering "Fatigue" Narrative: Zelenskyy's office directly addressing Western "fatigue" after NATO summit, demonstrating awareness of RUF IO.
  • Cyber Operations: Indications of active UAF cyber operations.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• RUF:
  • Domestic Impact of Deep Strikes: Civilian airport disruptions, mobile internet outages, and ammunition depot fires in border/deep regions due to UAF drone activity could impact public morale and sense of security.
  • Social Issues: Reports of crime (assaults, murders) and internal repression (arrests of activists, censorship concerns regarding "blocked access to favorite sites") indicate underlying social tensions and an authoritarian approach to control dissent.
  • Veteran Issues: Re-socialization challenges for veterans could lead to public discontent if unaddressed, potentially impacting future recruitment.
  • Morale of forces: Continued appeals for donations for basic supplies for frontline units suggest resource shortages or lower morale among some RUF forces.
• UAF:
  • Civilian Casualties: High death toll from Dnipro strike will negatively impact civilian morale, but also likely harden resolve against RUF aggression and reinforce the need for stronger AD.
  • Resilience: Continued civilian efforts for housing restoration, community services, and adaptation to war conditions (bomb shelters for ID services) demonstrate resilience.
  • Commemoration: Day of Mourning in Dnipro for victims highlights the human cost and collective grief.
  • Support for Veterans: Swimming programs for veterans demonstrate UAF efforts for rehabilitation.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Continued Strong Support for Ukraine:
  • High-level diplomatic engagement: Zelenskyy's meetings with Trump, E5 leaders, and NATO SG reinforce strong political support.
  • Legal Action: Signing of the agreement for a Special Tribunal against Russia is a significant diplomatic and legal step.
  • Military Aid: Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs, New Zealand and UK announcing new aid packages (e.g., 350 AD missiles purchased from frozen Russian assets), Canadian military training.
• Challenges to Sanctions Enforcement: Czech companies reportedly supplying machine tools to RUF via workarounds.
• RUF Diplomatic Stance: Russia's Deputy FM states Ukraine's non-aligned status is integral to any settlement, indicating no change in core demands.
• Divisions within Western Alliances (RUF Narrative): RUF attempts to amplify statements by figures like Viktor Orban (Hungary) and a Times columnist to portray disunity within NATO and Western support for Ukraine.
• International Monitoring Issues: IAEA losing track of Iranian enriched uranium after fabricated Israel-Iran conflict, a development RUF will leverage.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• Northern Axis Offensive: RUF will initiate a large-scale, multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy axis within the next 24-72 hours, likely supported by a high volume of KAB and tactical aviation strikes, including FAB-1500s. The primary objective will be to fix and draw UAF reserves away from the Donbas and potentially seize key border towns to expand the "buffer zone" and threaten Sumy city. This will be accompanied by efforts to disrupt UAF reinforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Donetsk Consolidation & Advance: RUF will intensify ground assaults and combined arms operations on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, leveraging recent gains in Yalta, Dyleyevka, and Komar. Their immediate objective is to gain full fire control over UAF logistics routes into Konstantinovka and possibly initiate direct assaults on the city. This will include persistent artillery and drone attacks on civilian areas in Nikopol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Continued Strategic Attrition: RUF will maintain a high tempo of precision and massed ballistic missile, cruise missile, and Shahed UAV strikes against critical infrastructure (especially energy and railway) and urban centers, aiming to inflict mass civilian casualties and degrade UAF's warfighting capacity and societal morale. This will include continued targeting of UAF defense industry assets (like the Kramatorsk workshop, Mykolaiv/Kulbakino airfield). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Escalated Cyber and Information Warfare: RUF will intensify cyberattacks concurrent with military operations, targeting UAF C2 and public information, while continuing to propagate narratives of Ukrainian internal instability and Western disunity. This will also include amplified dehumanizing rhetoric and narratives intended to incite internal divisions within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• Synchronized Multi-Front Breakthrough & Strategic Paralysis: RUF launches a fully synchronized, large-scale offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk) axes simultaneously, aiming for a rapid operational breakthrough and deep penetration. This would be preceded by an intense, multi-layered saturation missile and drone attack on Kyiv, key C2 nodes, strategic airfields, and UAF reserve staging areas, designed to paralyze UAF response. This operation would be supported by widespread sabotage operations behind UAF lines. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully)
• Hybrid Escalation & Internal RF Destabilization: Concurrent with offensive military actions, RUF initiates a widespread, coordinated hybrid campaign across Ukraine, combined with efforts to escalate internal tensions within RF (e.g., through intensified "Muslim expansion" narratives, justifying increased internal repression), potentially creating a pretext for broader mobilization or a more aggressive shift in domestic policy. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-72 hours: High probability of major RUF ground offensive on Sumy axis. UAF decision point on reserve deployment.
• Next 72 hours: Continued RUF pressure on Donetsk axes. UAF decision point on defending Konstantinovka and Toretsk supply lines.
• Immediate: Continued high frequency of RUF air/missile strikes nationwide. UAF decision point on AD asset allocation.
• Ongoing: RUF hybrid warfare will continue, requiring persistent UAF counter-IO.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes (GROUND PRIORITY #1). Focus on identifying RUF unit movements, logistical build-ups, and force concentrations (e.g., the reported 52,000 personnel) to provide real-time warning for any large-scale ground offensive. Special attention on identifying RUF efforts to disrupt UAF reinforcement and any indications of FAB-1500 targeting.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Task SOF and drone reconnaissance units to conduct aggressive interdiction and target acquisition operations around Yalta, Dyleyevka, and Komar (Donetsk Oblast) to disrupt RUF consolidation efforts and prevent full fire control over Konstantinovka logistics. Prioritize targets that would enable RUF fire control. Target RUF commanders at all levels, leveraging intelligence on individual liquidations (e.g., Major Yartsev).
  3. URGENT: Enhance intelligence collection on RUF's new "white radio-controlled Shaheds" and "Geranium-Hunters." Develop and deploy countermeasures (EW, improved AD systems, new tactics) against these adapted UAVs.
  4. HIGH: Continue deep strikes against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets within RF territory, particularly targeting railway infrastructure following the success near Tokmak and confirmed ammunition depots (e.g., Transbaikalia). Exploit reported internal disruptions (internet outages, airport suspensions) for further targeting. Prioritize targeting of RUF air repair plants and airfields like the Mykolaiv plant and Kulbakino airfield based on RUF reconnaissance reports, indicating their significance.
  5. HIGH: Increase counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize RUF agents and saboteurs within Ukraine, particularly in major urban centers and critical infrastructure nodes, following RUF's propaganda regarding "diversions."

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reposition and reinforce ABM and conventional AD assets to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv regions. Anticipate coordinated air and missile strikes designed to support RUF ground offensives and maximize civilian casualties. Prioritize protection of critical civilian infrastructure, railway networks, and areas like Nikopol that are under constant FPV drone and artillery threat.
  2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement enhanced passive and active force protection measures at all UAF training, assembly, and defense industry sites nationwide, including the Mykolaiv aircraft repair plant and Kulbakino airfield. This includes improved camouflage, dispersion, and hardening against precision strikes (e.g., those seen in Kramatorsk) and heavy glide bombs (FAB-1500).
  3. HIGH: Accelerate training and operational integration of newly acquired Western air defense systems and aircraft (e.g., F-16s) to increase interception rates against the full spectrum of RUF air threats, especially the adapted UAVs and ballistic missiles.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate all ground forces on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to maximum alert. Position strategic reserves for rapid counter-attack and reinforcement. Ensure robust anti-armor capabilities are forward deployed to counter potential heavy APC (Erzatz-BTR) advances.
  2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive lines around Konstantinovka and Toretsk immediately. Establish robust secondary and tertiary defensive positions to absorb and counter any RUF breakthrough from the Yalta/Dyleyevka/Komar direction.
  3. HIGH: Increase counter-battery fire missions, particularly against RUF MLRS systems (e.g., Grad, Tornado-S) and observed artillery concentrations, to degrade RUF fire support. Continue offensive actions where possible, as indicated by the reported 1100 RUF casualties.

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an intensive, evidence-based international IO campaign detailing RUF war crimes in Dnipro and Nikopol, specifically highlighting the targeting of civilian areas, a passenger train, and the rising casualty count. Push for immediate and robust international condemnation and accountability through the ICC and Special Tribunal.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Proactively publicize UAF's operational successes (Taganrog plant strike, Tokmak train interdiction, F-16 UAV kill, successful ballistic missile interception, updated RUF losses including the liquidation of Major Yartsev) to reinforce Ukrainian resilience and military effectiveness, directly countering RUF propaganda. Highlight the continuous support from international partners, including Canadian training.
  3. URGENT: Counter RUF narratives by emphasizing the unity of international support and the tangible outcomes of recent diplomatic engagements (e.g., Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, new aid packages, Special Tribunal agreement, Canadian training), directly addressing RUF attempts to portray divisions and fatigue.
  4. HIGH: Expose RUF's attempts at cultural genocide (e.g., Starlink ban, Ukrainian language suppression in schools) and internal security issues (e.g., Moldovan agents, veteran re-socialization challenges, internal crime) to undermine their legitimacy and expose internal vulnerabilities.
  5. HIGH: Reinforce the narrative of Ukraine's commitment to international law and human rights, especially concerning POW treatment, to counter RUF disinformation campaigns.

END OF REPORT