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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-06-26 04:12:00Z
8 months ago
Previous (2025-06-26 03:42:22Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF 29th Army claims continued annihilation of UAF personnel and equipment near Yalta, specifically a UAF armored vehicle with personnel. This aligns with previous RUF claims of taking Yalta and indicates continued RUF efforts to consolidate control and project force in this newly captured area. RUF continues to claim "liberation" of Perebudova and control over Dyleyevka, describing it as a "powerful fortified area" on the approaches to Konstantinovka, allowing "fire control" over UAF logistics. The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports active clashes near Dyliyivka (Toretsk direction) and Pokrovsk direction (Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Novoukrayinka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Myrnohrad, Oleksiyivka, Popiv Yar, Malynivka, Koptyevye and towards Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Molodetske, Serhiyivka, Novopavlivka), confirming active combat in these claimed areas. Rybar indicates RUF successes near Konstantinovka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF Special Operations Forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area), indicating continued RUF focus on these critical sectors. Два майора published video from Konstantinovka direction, Yablonovka, showing drone strikes on enemy positions and assault actions by RUF soldiers. STERNENKO shared drone footage indicating Russian origin, showing a residential area in Donetsk Oblast with significant damage and an explosion, suggesting continued RUF strikes on civilian infrastructure within contested zones. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shared video of "BLACK SKY" unit of 3rd Separate Presidential Brigade "Spartan" striking RUF forces in western outskirts of Novoserhiivka, implying active UAF defense/counter-attack. "Сливочный каприз" also shared new photo captioned "24.06.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe" (Pokrovsk direction) and a video with "Rubicon" and MoD Russia logos showing a drone strike on a vehicle, which they claim caused a "200" (KIA). New alert for 16 UAVs heading towards Dobropillia/Druzhkivka. Colonelcassad shared video of RUF destroying a UAF AGS crew on the Konstantinovka direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports FPV drone strikes by "Yug" group destroyed an American M119 howitzer and an ammunition depot in DNR. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) shared video captioned "Поражение группы пехоты" (Defeat of an infantry group), showing aerial footage of explosions, likely from a drone strike, with a parachute and wings emblem, suggesting RUF airborne operations or targeting of UAF infantry. WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, showing claimed RUF advances and active combat zones. Народная милиция ДНР shared video of successful Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) airstrikes on a UAF fortified area near Popov Yar, showing smoke plumes and cratering in agricultural fields. Операция Z reports that "Geraniums" struck a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield, with video evidence of the strike. Colonelcassad also shared a video captioned "Удар Герани с оптической системой наведением по цели ВСУ в аэропорту Краматорска," reinforcing this claim. Басурин о главном shared video and photos corroborating RUF strikes on the UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield using "Geraniums". This indicates a persistent targeting effort by RUF against UAF drone production capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "25.06.25 Великая Новосёлка - Ялта" (Great Novosilka - Yalta) which aligns with previous RUF claims of advancements in the Velyka Novosilka sector. Воин DV reported the "liberation" of Yalta by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including video evidence. MoD Russia reports that the Vostok Group of Forces liberated Yalta (Donetsk People's Republic). Alex Parker Returns amplified this, referring to it as the "third liberated Yalta." Народная милиция ДНР shared video claiming destruction of UAF artillery and armored vehicles in Alekseyevka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a successful UAF drone strike near Pokrovsk, targeting RUF personnel under camouflage nets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF liberated Yalta, Donetsk People's Republic. TASS reports that the "liberation" of Yalta in DNR will allow RUF to take fire control of the UAF grouping in Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which they describe as a key hub. РБК-Україна reports Konstantinovka is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe, citing Donetsk OVA, indicating severe civilian impact and potential RUF proximity. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) and Kotsnews shared videos claiming the liberation of Yalta in DNR by "Vostok" Group of Forces, with footage showing a Russian flag being raised, thermal imagery of destroyed vehicles, and aftermath of combat. Z комитет + карта СВО shared multiple map overlays (June 13-25, 2025) for the "Bogatyrskoye Direction" showing claimed RUF advances (Komar, Bogatyr, Vesele), indicating ongoing RUF pressure in this sector. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shared video demonstrating successful strikes on enemy infantry attempting an assault. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming "obliteration of Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry is going according to plan," displaying aerial footage of explosions, likely from a drone strike, with a parachute and wings emblem, suggesting ongoing RUF ground assaults and drone targeting against UAF infantry. Z комитет + карта СВО shared new map overlays (June 13-25, 2025) for the "Volnoye Pole" (Vesele Pole) direction, showing claimed RUF advances, indicating continued pressure on this axis. MoD Russia shared video of Vostok Group Grad MLRS crews eliminating enemy manpower and hardware in South Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Fighterbomber shared video of successful RUF strike on a UAF strongpoint near Sadki, showing a helicopter or similar aircraft hit by an explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that "🅾️tvazhnye" (RUF forces) are continuously destroying NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery near Pokrovsk, with footage of BMP and self-propelled artillery identified as "SAU PALADIN." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video, unverified BDA, propaganda). Colonelcassad shared 18+ video from Andreeka surroundings showing a deceased individual in camouflage with a rifle, suggesting recent combat and casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video, unverified). STERNENKO shared drone footage showing continued RUF active assaults on the Pokrovsk direction, using infantry and light transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video of a strike on a house where a "Donetsk miner" from the "Putin's African Corps" was allegedly based, indicating successful UAF targeting of RUF personnel in the Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). MoD Russia shared video of T-72B3M tanks supporting assault detachments breaking through a UAF fortified area in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared video of "jewelry work of artillery" showing aerial thermal footage of explosions, targeting UAF personnel, confirming ongoing RUF artillery effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a series of strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) on a fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Popov Yar area of the DNR. The video shows multiple explosions and smoke plumes in agricultural fields, consistent with large-scale aerial bombardment, confirming RUF’s continued use of air power to target UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). Colonelcassad shared a video purportedly showing successful RUF airstrikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) on a UAF fortified area in Popov Yar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Оперативний ЗСУ shared video from 3rd БрОП НГУ «Спартан» showing drone footage of RUF combat activity near Pokrovsk, including an RUF soldier with a radio, and later, drone strikes and aftermath, indicating active combat and UAF counter-drone operations in this key sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared a photo message from DeepState challenging claims of Ukrainian forces lying about holding occupied settlements, indicating ongoing disputes regarding territorial control and information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). Alex Parker Returns shared a video featuring a "Geranium" drone with optical guidance, allegedly striking a target in Kramatorsk, consistent with previous reports of RUF targeting UAF UAV facilities. This video shows an explosion in a grassy field, followed by secondary explosions and smoke, then a view of a damaged area with vehicles and a partially destroyed structure. The footage suggests a precision strike on a location with potential civilian infrastructure nearby, raising concerns about collateral damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified collateral damage, likely IO). Colonelcassad shared video footage showing a successful RUF strike by an attack drone on a camouflaged UAF 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, confirming ongoing RUF counter-battery capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Colonelcassad shared video of "ЦЕНТР" grouping drone operators engaging transport of the 14th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU). The video shows an armored personnel carrier (BTR) and a modified pickup truck, both damaged, suggesting active combat in an urban/semi-urban environment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 UAVs on a course towards/through Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). TASS reports RUF forces are suppressing UAF counterattacks in the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Colonelcassad shared a video purportedly showing drone reconnaissance and strike footage. It shows an open, grassy field with numerous impact craters. Structures, some damaged, are visible. An explosion occurs in a specific target area. The video contains overlays with altitude, speed, zoom levels, and Russian text/emblems. A close-up of a fire and a unit insignia are also seen. This confirms active RUF drone operations, targeting, and ongoing military activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified by UAF).
  • Luhansk Oblast: RUF sources continue to claim the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka), asserting that "LNR is completely liberated." The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports clashes yesterday near Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyny, Novyi Myr, Olhivka (Lyman direction), indicating active combat in the broader area of Hrekivka/Petrovske. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is pushing occupiers out near Ridkodub. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared video titled "The Third Assault is knocking out the occupiers in the area of Ridkodub!" Николаевский Ванёк also reports the 3rd Assault Brigade is "knockings out occupiers" near Ridkodub. Басурин (Basurin) claims RUF confidently advancing on Krasnolimansk direction with video of artillery fire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of destruction of an enemy Grad MLRS system in Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast by a UAV. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок posted aerial footage of the Serebryanskoye forestry, describing it as modern combat zone with "fiber optic cables" from FPV drones, indicating intense drone warfare in this sector. Оперативний ЗСУ also shared video of Serebryanskoye forest, describing it as "legendary" and "covered in fiber optics from drones," confirming intense drone warfare in this sector. TASS reports AFU controls less than 0.5% of Luhansk Oblast, citing Marochko. Rybar shares video on "Liberation of Grigorievka and battles for Verkhnekamenskoye." Colonelcassad reports on drone strikes by "Rubikon" unit of 144th division destroying an ammunition depot near Kolodezi. Kotsnews reports that "Starlink" has been banned in the LPR, indicating RUF efforts to control communication in occupied territories. Mash na Donbashe, Colonelcassad, and НгП раZVедка corroborate the Starlink ban in LNR. Два майора comments on the Starlink ban, suggesting RUF is reviewing its policies, reinforcing the intent to control information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Petrovske/Hrekivka, UAF confirms active combat; LOW CONFIDENCE – verification of RUF control over Petrovske/Hrekivka; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report of counter-action and supporting video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Basurin's claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok reports on Serebryanskoye forestry, indicating active combat and high drone usage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video of Grad destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ video on Serebryanskoye forest). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reports of Starlink ban).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. Updated reports from UAF official sources and local administration confirm an increase in casualties: 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded. Оперативний ЗСУ states 15 dead and over 200 injured, citing OMA. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports four explosions in Dnipropetrovovsk industrial zone, likely Iskander. RUF sources claim a "powerful strike" was made against a "locomotive repair plant in Dnipropetrovovsk," framing it as a strike on UAF logistics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claimed RUF forces hit a "rocket and armored vehicle production plant" in Dnipropetrovsk. Zelenskiy / Official also shared video of a damaged passenger train, indicating a direct hit on railway infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація explicitly states the passenger train "Odesa - Zaporizhzhia" was damaged. РБК-Україна reports an expert called the strike a "targeted attack or psychological terror," aimed at hitting moving objects like trains, making them difficult to intercept. Олексій Білошицький shared videos showing police officers providing first aid to an individual in a car accident in Dnipro, indicating continued civilian emergency response after the strike. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reported continued enemy attacks on Nikopol region, specifically Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrove, Chervonohryhorivka, Pokrovsk communities, with associated damage photos. New UAV threat in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New alert for UAV from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New alert for UAV from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 20 dead and nearly 300 wounded from yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Олександр Вілкул reports Kryvyi Rih situation is controlled. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video message with a static image and text "ДНІПРО SAMAR" and "ДЕНЬ ЖАЛОБИ" (Day of Mourning) commemorating victims. STERNENKO reports the number of victims of yesterday's Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has increased to 20. Олександр Вілкул shared photos showing the modernization of heating systems in Kryvyi Rih, indicating continued civilian infrastructure repair. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a new alert for ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction, specifically towards Poltava Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A UAF air raid alert for ballistic missile threat was later cancelled. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) confirms the death toll in Dnipro has risen to 19. Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates this, reporting 19 dead in Dnipro and an additional 2 in Samara, with over 300 wounded. The earlier casualty figure of 20 dead cited by some sources is now updated to 19 in Dnipro and 2 in Samara (total 21 KIA in Oblast). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of aviation weapon use in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued RUF air activity. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shared video depicting the aftermath of shelling, showing damaged cars and houses, and civilians receiving aid for repairs. This highlights continued civilian impact and the humanitarian response. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shared new photos reporting FPV drone and artillery strikes on Nikopol district, including Nikopol, Pokrovsk, Myrivska, and Marhanets communities, resulting in civilian damage. This confirms continued RUF shelling of civilian areas. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a photo with the caption "Dnipropetrovsk direction," implying continued RUF focus or operations in this area. WarGonzo mentions "Dnipro" in the context of "Korean War," indicating continued RUF attention to this area and potentially leveraging it for propaganda analogies. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Russian "Iskanders" creating "big problems" for Ukraine, likely in reference to the Dnipro strike, underscoring the missile's effectiveness for RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts and casualties, including the increase to 21 KIA and over 300 wounded; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Civilian targeting; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific military target within Dnipro, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Damage to passenger train confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Poddubny reporting on Iskander use; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim on missile/armored vehicle plant, requires BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ casualty update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна expert analysis; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Олексій Білошицький video, shows civilian impact and response). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF presence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad shared video captioned "Mogilization in Dnipropetrovsk is happening in accelerated, round-the-clock mode," showing individuals in military-style uniforms apprehending a civilian, indicating RUF propaganda regarding UAF mobilization and potentially forced conscription. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the production of "Iskander" missiles in Russia has increased thanks to Chinese assistance, citing Kyiv Independent. This indicates a potential increase in RUF's precision strike capabilities and highlights the role of international support in sustaining RUF's war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the eastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on a westward course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Aviation weapon use threat reported in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Sumy Oblast: The UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) explicitly reports UAF forces repelled 10 RUF assaults yesterday in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active combat and persistent RUF pressure in the border region. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shared video claiming "Black Sea Marines powerfully crush the enemy, breaking through defenses in Sumy Oblast." This is an unverified RUF claim of a breakthrough, requiring immediate verification. A new map from Z комитет + карта СВО on the Sumy direction (June 13-23, 2025) highlights territorial changes. STERNENKO shared video of defensive positions in Sumy region. Kotsnews reports on "the first report on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast." Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alerts for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast at 18:22Z and 18:31Z. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a destroyed Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast due to Lancet. STERNENKO also shared video of "Wings to Hell" (UAF drone unit) destroying a "Buryat samurai" (RUF soldier) with a tactical net in Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды (Starshe Eddy) published an "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," including multiple photos depicting a rural road, damaged houses, and debris, aiming to validate RUF claims of presence. Colonelcassad shared a series of photos under the caption "Exclusive. First report from the 'buffer zone' in Sumy Oblast," showing rural roads, damaged houses, and military personnel, attempting to corroborate RUF presence in the claimed buffer zone. Николаевский Ванёк reports a collection for transport for drone operators of 421st Separate UAV Battalion "Sapsan" on the Sumy direction. STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" in Kursk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Saratov, Voronezh, Tambov, and Penza Oblasts. Igor Артамонов (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reported "UAV threat cancelled," indicating recent UAF drone activity and RUF AD response in Lipetsk Oblast. A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing FPV drone activity in Sumy Oblast over deceased RUF personnel. New alert for UAVs in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. New alert for 1 UAV heading towards Sumy city from the north. New alert for UAV towards Sumy city cancelled. ТАСС reports RUF advancing in Sumy Oblast using small groups to stretch enemy forces, citing Alaudinov. AV БогомаZ reports a RUF UAV was destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports on demining operations in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shared a photo message about the situation of UAF in Sumy, including a new GUR unit, indicating RUF monitoring and IO on the northern front. STERNENKO reports an ammunition depot is detonating in Transbaikal Krai (Zabaikalsky Krai) of Russia, on the territory of a military unit, with video evidence of explosions and smoke. Alex Parker Returns shared videos from Sumy Oblast depicting Special Operations Forces work and highlighting a "guerrilla" conflict. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an FPV drone attack by UAF on a civilian KamAZ truck in Bilovsky district of Kursk Oblast, injuring a 52-year-old man. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the northeastern direction (likely Sumy/Kharkiv). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a photo with the caption "Sumy direction," indicating continued RUF focus on this axis. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF repelled assaults in Sumy/Kursk; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim of "buffer zone" in Sumy, active combat confirmed; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF defensive preparations in Sumy, RUF KAB strikes in Sumy; LOW CONFIDENCE - Abrams destruction claim, unverified; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone footage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Starshe Eddy reporting and photos, intent is to confirm RUF presence; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Mykolaiv Vanok's report on UAF drone unit transport collection; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO drone safety report; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update on AD status; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Air Force of Ukraine KAB alerts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF report). STERNENKO reports on "drone safety" in various Russian Oblasts (Saratov, Tula, Voronezh, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Republic of Tatarstan). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting on RUF AD activity). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a missile or UAV strike was "missed" in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast, indicating ongoing UAF deep strikes into RF territory and RUF AD attempts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF AD). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). ТАСС video shows RUF artillery striking a concentration of UAF soldiers in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified by UAF). TASS reports that RUF forces did not allow Kyiv to reinforce its grouping near Olgovka, Kharkiv Oblast. This is a new RUF claim of preventing UAF troop movements or reinforcement efforts on the Kharkiv axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified).
  • Kharkiv Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Vovchanski Khutory, Artilne, Zybyne of Kharkiv region, Popiv Yar of Donetsk region. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenti Hai, towards Pischane and Kurylivka (Kupyansk direction). MoD Russia published video of Grad MLRS strike near the border in Kharkiv region. Привид Хортиці (Ghost of Khortytsia) shared video of UAF drone operations targeting enemy positions and a boat in Slobozhanshchyna, demonstrating UAF counter-action capabilities. Colonelcassad shared video claiming destruction of an enemy UAV control point in Kharkiv Oblast (likely a UAF asset). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared video of 3rd Separate Tank "Iron" Brigade destroying RUF forces, captioned "These are our heavens, this is our land!", and a new FPV drone video targeting an RUF UAZ vehicle ("bukhanka"). New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z shared video claiming "Thunder" (RUF drone unit) burning enemy equipment near Kupyansk. New alert for several groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west. New alert for UAV in Kharkiv city. New alerts for 6 UAVs from Bilhorod towards Kharkiv, and several groups from the north towards Kharkiv city. Explosions reported in Kharkiv city, striking a civilian enterprise. RUF launched at least 7 strikes on Kharkiv city. New alert for UAVs in Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk. New alerts for UAVs towards Kharkiv city cancelled. RUF UAV strike reported to have hit a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. Another hit was recorded in Shevchenkivskyi district. Total of four Geran-2 UAVs struck a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district. РБК-Україна reports Kharkiv was attacked by seven Shahed-type drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports 64-year-old man wounded in Kharkiv attack. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports RUF also struck Kupyansk overnight. РБК-Україна reports RUF also struck Kupyansk with KABs overnight. New video from Colonelcassad showing FPV drone strike on UAF pickup truck in Kupyansk vicinity. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 7 Shahed UAVs struck Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv. Воин DV shared video claiming 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade hit a UAV control point in Shakhtarsk direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shared multiple photos from his visit with Ukraine's Minister of Education and Science, Oksen Lisovyi, in Kharkiv Oblast, inspecting construction/renovation sites. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports that Russian forces struck Kharkiv overnight, injuring a pensioner, with associated photos of damaged buildings, smoke, and firefighting efforts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new KAB launches on Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared a video of a Russian "Molniya" (Lightning) loitering munition being intercepted/destroyed, with the Khartia unit logo. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shared the video of the "Molniya" being destroyed. Colonelcassad shared a video from the Vovchansk (Volchansk) direction, appealing for support for RUF assault troops. Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile heading to Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interception of the missile targeting Chuhuiv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that SBU and National Police detained a Russian agent in Kharkiv who allegedly passed a mined scooter to UAF personnel as "volunteer aid." Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, shared photos from a visit to defense industry facilities in the region, emphasizing their importance for frontline support. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared multiple photos of infantry from the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade training with modern combat equipment, indicating ongoing UAF readiness and adaptation. Colonelcassad shared exclusive footage of alleged destruction of UAF personnel and military equipment in the "buffer zone" across Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, showing drone surveillance and strikes, indicating continued RUF operations in these border regions. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reported on "Єдиних новин" about shelling and drone attacks in Kharkiv region, confirming continued RUF aggression and its impact on civilian areas. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shared a video showing UAF aviation and Rocket and Artillery Forces actively working, with footage of strikes on armored vehicles, personnel concentrations in Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk, and an enemy command post in Shipylivka, demonstrating active UAF counter-action. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shared photos indicating the Kharkiv OVA will allocate over 108 million UAH for housing for family-type children's homes, demonstrating continued efforts to support civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports on RUF airstrikes and clashes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF MLRS activity in Kharkiv; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF drone operations in Kharkiv; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim of UAV control point destruction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ОТУ "Харків" videos). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing a 92nd Separate Assault Brigade soldier shooting down a RUF FPV drone with a shotgun as it attempted to hit a UAF pickup truck transporting personnel. This highlights continued UAF ingenuity and adaptive counter-drone tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF training report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF civilian support efforts). Сливочный каприз shared a photo captioned "25.06.25 Волчанск," indicating continued RUF presence and operations in the Vovchansk sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF report). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared photos captioned "Харьковское направление," reinforcing continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF report). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 3rd Assault Brigade drones preparing "a large batch of Russian scrap metal," demonstrating successful UAF strikes on RUF heavy equipment, weapons, and logistics in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared a video titled "Daily routine of defenders," showing infantry combat, suggesting active engagement on the Kharkiv axis. The video is from the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, confirming active UAF presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shared photos of a meeting with leaders of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, confirming continued international diplomatic engagement and support for Ukraine, specifically for Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). MoD Russia shared video of Tornado-S MLRS crews inflicting fire damage on UAF formations in Kharkiv direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claimed successful strike on a UAF command post and UAV control point in Sosnovka, Kharkiv region. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified by independent sources). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the northeastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing successful UAF drone strikes targeting a fast-moving RUF vehicle on a dirt road, which then explodes, demonstrating effective UAF targeting of light transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a wave of sabotage in Ukraine, with UAF personnel being blown up in Kyiv and Kharkiv, showing video of a person approaching a scooter near a minivan and an explosion, claiming it's a new wave of "diversions." This is RUF propaganda intended to portray internal instability within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, unverified claim). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV over Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports an enemy UAV detected in the sky over Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). РБК-Україна reports an enemy drone detected in the sky over Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 UAVs heading towards/through Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the northwestern part of Kharkiv Oblast, heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in the western and northeastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast, heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Malynivka, Novoandriyivka, Kamyanske, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Stepnohirsk of Zaporizhzhia region. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is scaling up protection for Defense Forces by constructing new anti-drone tunnels for logistics routes. Air Force of Ukraine reports missile danger and KAB launches in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an alert for ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade operators downing a Russian "Orlan-30" reconnaissance UAV near Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) reports RUF conducted an airstrike on one of the settlements in Polohy district. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photos of housing restoration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, graduation ceremonies, and a photo postcard titled "Melitopol is Ukraine." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a photo with the caption "Zaporozhye direction," implying continued RUF focus or operations in this area. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition claimed a British mercenary was killed near Mali Shcherbaky during a UAF attempt to recapture the area. New KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Mash na Donbashe reports part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast without power due to UAF strike. New UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district). New alert for UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. New fast target on Zaporizhzhia. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia, with damage. Two missiles impacted Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна reports two people wounded in Zaporizhzhia strikes. Air raid alert cancelled in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 2 wounded, with video evidence of damaged civilian infrastructure. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 9 private homes damaged by missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of a private house impacted by an explosion. WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for the Zaporizhzhia Front. Два майора published a video of a tactical drone strike in Zaporizhzhia region. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a new photo message with the caption "🪂 Запорожское направление." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showcasing the delivery of military aid, including generators, drones (DJI Mavic), and possibly Starlink terminals, to Ukrainian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 469 strikes on settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the past day. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued a new alert for a ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction. UAF air raid alert was later cancelled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showing administrative staff working in a bomb shelter for ID card/passport services. Воин DV shared video captioned "11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army keeps pace with ground colleagues and regularly irons out AFU positions, this time in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, near Poltavka," showing aerial footage of explosions, indicating continued RUF airstrikes and artillery fire in the region. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports almost 900 subscribers are without power due to an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia district, confirming ongoing infrastructure damage. TASS reports RUF military expert Marochko stating that RUF has liberated Yalta (DNR) because UAF units cannot consolidate positions after taking Zaporizhzhia. This is a contradictory RUF claim aimed at discrediting UAF operational capacity on a different axis. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with assets engaged to shoot it down. This signifies continued RUF reconnaissance. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that brigades of "Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo" have restored power to subscribers affected by the enemy attack, demonstrating civilian resilience and restoration efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video showcasing the handover of new specialized vehicles (auto loaders, bunker trucks, vans) to communal services and frontline communities, funded by the Ukrainian government and Germany, highlighting efforts to restore infrastructure after RUF attacks. Оперативний ЗСУ shared a video showing the 148th Zhytomyr Separate Artillery Brigade effectively striking RUF artillery, positions, and personnel, demonstrating continued UAF counter-battery and targeting capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports on AD alerts; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF counter-UAV action and supporting video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on airstrike; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on housing restoration; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on graduation ceremony; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Zaporizhzhia OMA on Melitopol; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, requires verification). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF map claims, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF presence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF logistical support). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report on widespread damage). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF air defense engagement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared photos of President Zelenskyy's meeting with former US President Trump in The Hague, reinforcing the strong diplomatic support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared video of Zelenskyy meeting with leaders of E5 format countries (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Poland) and NATO Secretary General, highlighting multilateral support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared a video of the swimming program for veterans, indicating UAF efforts for veteran rehabilitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Colonelcassad shared video captioned "11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army keeps pace with ground colleagues and regularly irons out AFU positions, this time in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, near Poltavka," confirming continued RUF air and artillery strikes in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued multiple "ATTENTION" alerts, indicating continued UAV or missile threats in the oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a new alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the northeastern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving west/northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued a new "ATTENTION" alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating ongoing aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff (GeneralStaffZSU) reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 3 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Два майора" shared video of FPV drone and UAV-KT combat work by 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade in Kherson direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported that RUF began to disconnect mobile internet in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports UAF "tigers" captured another prisoner on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a photo/map of the "Kherson direction." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video claiming the "Espanyola" special forces marine detachment thwarted UAF landing plans on Crimea. MoD Russia released video showing signalmen of the 49th Army, Dnepr Group of Forces, in Kherson region. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also shared video of an FPV drone. ТАСС reports Saldo (RUF-appointed governor) states AFU conducting massive attack by aircraft-type UAVs on Kherson Oblast. Операция Z shared video captioned "The enemy is attacking Kazan and Kherson region." Два майора is conducting a "collection for Kherson direction." New alert for 3 UAVs flying past Oleksandrivka, towards Pravdyne/Posad-Pokrovske. New alert for UAVs in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading northeast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a large UAF unit was destroyed by missile strikes in Kherson direction. MoD Russia shared video of civilian evacuation from Bahatyr. Kotsnews shared multiple videos of civilian evacuation from Bahatyr. Воин DV shared video claiming "Baltic brothers" from the 336th Guards Marine Brigade struck a UAF vehicle during personnel disembarkation, showing thermal footage of explosions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a RUF UAV in Mykolaiv Oblast that "may be a spotter for enemy weapons." This indicates ongoing RUF reconnaissance and targeting efforts in southern Ukraine. Colonelcassad shared a video purportedly showing a civilian woman expressing gratitude and relief at the arrival of Russian military forces, likely in a recently occupied or contested settlement, suggesting RUF propaganda efforts to legitimize their presence. STERNENKO shared drone footage showing UAF Southern Defense Forces destroying RUF forces in Kherson Oblast, with footage of an industrial structure, infrared views of heat signatures, and a vessel on water being targeted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF combat footage, unverified BDA by UAF; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF internet shutdown; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF capture of prisoner; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo/map of Kherson direction, indicating continued RUF focus; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video, unverified BDA, likely propaganda; HIGH CONFIDENCE - MoD Russia video on Kherson; HIGH CONFIDENCE - АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА new video; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report on Kherson UAV attack). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF acknowledgement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms RUF presence and evacuation efforts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). MoD Russia shared a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing command's attitude towards soldiers, alleging tattoos with nationalistic symbols on instructors and soldiers being sent to the front without weapons if disciplined. This is RUF information warfare aimed at undermining UAF morale and promoting desertion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad shared a video captioned "Остров Корабел, Херсонское направление," which shows aerial footage of a multi-story building near water, with annotations indicating "construction material" and "dugout/bunker," and a Starlink dish on the roof, followed by an explosion. This indicates continued RUF reconnaissance and targeting of UAF positions and communications, particularly on islands or difficult terrain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). Colonelcassad shared a video showing a man speaking about the destruction of a pontoon bridge and significant casualties in Kherson region, which is RUF propaganda aimed at demoralizing UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Николаевский Ванёк reports KAB launches on Bilozerka district, Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Два майора is conducting a collection for the Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports through the Odesa OVA that a man was killed in an RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske, Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that Vasya Lomachenko is upset due to the Russian strike on a lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that three employees were killed in the strike on the lyceum in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also named the three killed employees. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued new alert for "Several groups of UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast." New report of 14 UAVs in the Black Sea, and two of them north of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 UAVs were shot down near Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. New alert for UAVs heading towards Odesa Oblast (Sarata). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast (Vylkove). New alert for UAVs from Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast. New alert for 6 UAVs from Black Sea towards Primorske/Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports 9 UAVs heading to Vylkove. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Vylkove. Николаевский Ванёк reports that out of 16 UAVs towards Vylkove, 7 remain. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Vylkove. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF forces struck a UAF military unit in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 17 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the operational zone of "South" Group of Forces over the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Shahed UAV strike on infrastructure in Vylkove. РБК-Україна reports initial details of RUF attack on Vylkove, saying "enemy tries to leave the city without water." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared a video showing UAF drone operators of the "SICARIO" unit destroying a bridge in the southern direction using bomb drops from a hexacopter, indicating UAF efforts to disrupt RUF logistics. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports successful UAF air defense against Shahed drones, including an F-16 using an AIM-9 Sidewinder and a Mi-24 helicopter using machine gun fire, demonstrating multi-layered UAF air defense capabilities. Colonelcassad shared multiple videos claiming missile strikes by RUF on ammunition depots in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Odesa Oblast, showing large explosions and smoke plumes from a distance, indicating continued RUF targeting of UAF logistics in the region. РБК-Україна reports "Russians started using white radio-controlled 'Shaheds'," implying a new or modified RUF drone variant, which could pose a targeting challenge. STERNENKO shared drone footage showing the Phoenix border detachment destroying Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, specifically trucks, implying broader UAF logistical interdiction efforts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence, unverified BDA). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claims of new drone type, requires technical verification). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). РБК-Україна reports RUF launched strike drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). STERNENKO reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs from the northeast and south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Николаевский Ванёк reports on the overall situation regarding "mopeds" (RUF UAVs), indicating continued UAF tracking of RUF drone activity in the southern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV from the Black Sea towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). As of 252345Z JUN 25, all remaining RUF UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast have been neutralized ("весь остаток по мопедам в море" - Николаевский Ванёк, "Відбій загрози ударних БпЛА" - Повітряні Сили ЗС України). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Other Axes (UAF General Staff Reports):
    • Siversk direction: Clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka.
    • Kramatorsk direction: Clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and towards Bila Hora. "Сливочный каприз" shared a photo captioned "24.06.25 Chasov Yar - Shevchenko" (likely Chasiv Yar area). WarGonzo shared multiple photo messages with map overlays for Chasiv Yar. Colonelcassad shared a video captioned "Удар Герани с оптической системой наведением по цели ВСУ в аэропорту Краматорска." Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also shared video of the claimed destruction of a UAV assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield. MoD Russia shared video evidence confirming Geran UAV teams hit a UAF drone assembly workshop at Kramatorsk airfield, indicating persistent RUF efforts to degrade UAF drone capabilities.
    • Novopavlivka direction: Clashes yesterday near Bahatyr, Zelene Pole, Vesele, Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, also towards Novopil, Zaporizhzhya and Komar. Воин DV posted video on the "liberation" of Bahatyr over a month ago and the subsequent civilian evacuation. Военкор Котенок shared map overlays for the Novopavlivka direction, indicating continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - "Сливочный каприз" photo, indicates activity in Chasiv Yar direction; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Воин DV video confirms combat history in Bahatyr). UAF General Staff provided an operational update for 22:00 24.06.25, 06:00 25.06.25, 08:00 25.06.25, and 10:00 25.06.25, detailing ongoing clashes. UAF General Staff reports at 11:00 25.06.2025 detailing continued offensive actions by RUF along multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk. The UAF General Staff issued an operational update at 16:00 25.06.2025, detailing continued Russian invasion activities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Ukrainian Defense Forces' aviation, missile, and artillery strikes from June 19-25, hitting 99 areas of personnel concentration, weapons, military equipment, ammunition depots, command posts, and other important targets, as stated by Syrsky. This provides a summary of recent UAF BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video evidence). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shared videos of President Zelenskyy meeting with leaders of the E5 format (Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Poland) and the NATO Secretary General, emphasizing continued multilateral support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports). Рыбарь shares map overlays for the Novopavlovskoye direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) states DeepState reports UAF are lying about holding settlements that are under RUF control, which is RUF propaganda aimed at discrediting UAF reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна shared photos of President Zelenskyy addressing representatives of PACE, reinforcing UAF diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's opening statement to PACE, emphasizing Ukraine feels "at home," a diplomatic outreach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement to PACE that "every criminal must be brought to justice, including Putin," which is a strong call for international legal accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). РБК-Україна shared a video of Zelenskyy speaking at PACE, emphasizing that the "crime of aggression must be recorded, condemned, and punished," and that "The Hague is an ideal place for this," reinforcing the call for a Special Tribunal against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Оперативний ЗСУ shared video of Zelenskyy addressing PACE, emphasizing accountability for war crimes and upholding legal principles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). Zelenskiy / Official shared videos confirming the signing of an Agreement on the creation of a Special Tribunal regarding the crime of aggression against Ukraine with the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset. This is a significant diplomatic and legal victory for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, shared a video of the signing of the agreement for a Special Tribunal on the crime of aggression against Ukraine, indicating continued high-level diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • RF Territory (Various Regions): ASTRA and RUF MoD via TASS claimed Russian air defense forces destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over various regions of Russia, with TASS specifically claiming 18 UAVs shot down in three hours. TASS later updated this, claiming 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over various regions of Russia in 3.5 hours (also reported by ASTRA). TASS reports that Russian AD forces from 13:00 to 15:00 MSK destroyed 8 Ukrainian UAVs over Voronezh, Kursk, and Samara Oblasts, indicating continued UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity. Igor Artamonov (Governor, Lipetsk Oblast) reports a UAV threat in Usmansky and Dobrinsky districts, now "cancelled." A new "yellow" air danger level was announced for all of Lipetsk Oblast at 04:01:46Z JUN 25. Igor Artamonov reports the "yellow" air danger level for Lipetsk Oblast has been canceled. Оперативний ЗСУ shared photos claiming 8 RUF oil depots after drone attacks by UAV forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows video of a RUF soldier killed by UAF drone. РБК-Україна reports RUF has dropped almost 100 bombs on its own and occupied territories since the beginning of the year. STERNENKO shared video of "Novem Group" destroying RUF logistics in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports "Aeroflot" is adjusting flight schedules to Kazan, Samara, and Saratov due to restrictions. ASTRA confirms "Aeroflot" flight adjustments. AV БогомаZ (Governor, Bryansk Oblast) reports "Over the territory of Bryansk Oblast, air defense forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation detected and destroyed an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle." AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) posted photos about road network development in Bryansk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports that Putin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to Pavel Mishin, a train driver killed in a bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports 8 UAVs shot down in Ulyanovsk Oblast with internet restricted in the region. Рыбарь shares video message captioned "Organization and conduct of an ambush on enemy transport." ASTRA reported on a new initiative in St. Petersburg where "participants of the war with Ukraine will instill 'traditional values' in schoolchildren." Kotsnews claimed "Kyiv continues to hold 32 Kursky residents hostage." Новости Москвы shared videos of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow. Операция Z (Military Correspondents of Russian Spring) posted video of aftermath of an alleged enemy attempt to destroy "Espanyola" marine detachment. НгП раZVедка shared video depicting a security operation with a civilian vehicle, individuals in a wooded area (one armed), an incapacitated individual, an FSB vehicle, and electronic equipment with IED components and X-ray imagery of ammunition. This indicates ongoing internal security concerns and counter-sabotage operations within RF territory. Colonelcassad reports the detention of two Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow with tasks against Russian security. Alex Parker Returns corroborates this. This suggests heightened counter-intelligence activities and perceived foreign interference. MoD Russia reports the Russian Aerospace Forces received another batch of Su-35S aircraft. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 corroborates this with photos and video of new Su-35S aircraft, indicating continued Russian military-industrial output and force modernization, despite sanctions. Fighterbomber also shared video titled "About Su-35," showcasing the aircraft's capabilities and reinforcing reports of continued production. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a military unit in Chita, Siberia, has multiple fires and ongoing detonation for several hours, with fire aviation deployed, indicating a significant incident, possibly an ammunition depot explosion. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Britain will transfer 350 advanced air defense missiles to Ukraine, purchased from frozen Russian assets, indicating continued western support using novel financing methods. ASTRA reports two servicemen robbed and assaulted a passerby in Moscow, highlighting potential disciplinary issues within the RF armed forces. Рыбарь shared a video titled "Combatting Ukrainian Terrorism," showing FSB vehicle and security operations, indicating ongoing internal security concerns within RF. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) shared photos from an exhibition "Bryansk Oblast: Territory of Development," attended by high-ranking political and military figures, aiming to project stability and development in a border region. Colonelcassad shared a video honoring Radislav Khugaev, a sergeant posthumously awarded "Hero of Russia" for actions in Mariupol, indicating ongoing RUF propaganda to boost morale and glorify military service. Военкор Котенок reported on Pacific Fleet combat training, implying readiness across all RF military branches. Север.Реалии reports a Moscow court sentenced the founder of "Dissernet" to 5 years for extremism financing, indicating increased internal repression. ASTRA reports a warehouse with ammunition caught fire in Transbaikalia due to natural fires, with several videos and photos showing smoke, explosions, and emergency response, indicating a significant accidental loss of materiel. Alex Parker Returns reported on Putin's participation in the BRICS summit via video link due to ICC requirements in Brazil, highlighting RF's continued international engagement challenges. ТАСС reports that Russian AD forces from 15:00 to 17:00 MSK destroyed 10 Ukrainian UAVs over Voronezh, Tambov, Kursk, Saratov, Penza, and Rostov Oblasts, confirming continued UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shared photo messages regarding "blocked access to favorite sites," which may indicate increasing internet censorship or restrictions within RF territory. Alex Parker Returns shared a video featuring Timur Gromov, a veteran of the 'SVO,' discussing difficulties finding employment after service, which suggests potential re-socialization challenges for Russian veterans and possible societal rejection, impacting morale and future recruitment. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, at the "Zarya" plant, involving chemical containers. This, if intentional, would represent another UAF deep strike against RF industrial targets. Gleb Nikitin (Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast) shared photos of opening a new federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology laboratory, attempting to project stability and scientific advancement despite potential industrial incidents. ASTRA reports the arrest of activist Akim Tuktarov in Ufa, highlighting continued internal political repression within Russia. ТАСС reports that an MMA fighter was sentenced to life in prison for killing a MAJI inspector in Zaryadye, which, while a domestic crime, could reflect on internal social issues and the rule of law within RF. Новости Москвы reports increasing complaints of harassment against women in central Moscow, involving unwanted physical contact and filming, highlighting potential social unrest or crime issues within the RF capital. ASTRA reports that St. Petersburg local historian Dmitry Vitushkin was sentenced to 1 year in a penal colony for "rehabilitation of Nazism," indicating continued strict enforcement of controversial laws and suppression of dissent. ТАСС reports a court in Tula Oblast arrested a suspect in the murder of a sports college director and lawyer, highlighting internal crime issues in Russia. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) shared a video showcasing an exhibition about the region's development, including industrial achievements (locomotives, tractors), agricultural production, and military equipment (MLRS, drones), aiming to project stability and national resilience in a border region subject to UAF attacks. Colonelcassad shared videos of Rostec developing a robot for laser demining, highlighting RF's continued investment in military technology and potentially addressing internal security challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims, RUF internal reporting on UAV threats; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claims on oil depot strikes; HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF combat footage; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBC-Ukraine report on RUF dropping bombs on own territory; HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO video of strike on RUF logistics in Kursk; HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/ASTRA reports on Aeroflot flight adjustments; HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ post on road development; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Igor Artamonov's update; HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad report on Bryansk incident; HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA on Ulyanovsk UAVs). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Rybar video, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO, confirms military unit fire). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reports on aid). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Russian legal action). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report, suggests significant loss of RUF materiel). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Alex Parker Returns report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Alex Parker Returns video, impacts veteran morale). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ report, unverified cause). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Gleb Nikitin report, propaganda). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report, internal repression). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Новости Москвы reports). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - AV БогомаZ video). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF technology development). ASTRA reports the Governor of Transbaikalia confirmed a fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura. This corroborates previous reports and is a confirmed significant loss of RUF materiel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA report). TASS reports Nilov will continue to work as an independent deputy after exclusion from LDPR, indicating internal political maneuvering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal political reporting). Глеб Никитин (Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast) shared photos of "Nizhny Novgorod opera divas" being among the best in the world, a civilian cultural report aimed at projecting normalcy and positive regional development in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal IO). Kotsnews shared a political cartoon related to a "Vecherniy Zvon" (Evening Bell), which is RUF information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns shared a video featuring Russian servicemen seeking support for the "SVO," aimed at boosting morale and fundraising. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Рыбарь shared a comic captioned "Once near Staromayorskoye," a form of RUF information warfare/propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared photos of a "patch 'Archangel Spetsnaz'" featuring a wolf, likely for morale or propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS shared a photo message about Maria Zakharova calling to remember how US authorities shape investment climate, indicating RUF attempts to influence narratives on international economic relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Kadyrov_95 shared a video from a Russian practical shooting championship, highlighting Chechen team's success. This is aimed at promoting a warrior culture and martial prowess within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno indicates a "start" in 15 minutes and then "Starting," likely related to a cyber operation. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UAF cyber activity). TASS and ASTRA reported that 18 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over RF regions in three hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). AV БогомаZ reports seven UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). TASS reports the FAS will investigate Wildberries regarding their banking practices, indicating internal economic oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal economic reporting). TASS reports on a criminal case against blogger Alex Leslie for incitement to rape, indicating internal crime issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal crime reporting). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a VK group "Moscow Muslims" placing crescents instead of crosses on St. Basil's Cathedral, which is RUF propaganda used to portray internal religious/ethnic tensions and extremism within Russia, likely to justify internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). АSTRA reports on a criminal case against blogger Alexander Kirillov (Alex Leslie) in Moscow for public calls to harassment, which is a domestic law enforcement issue in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ASTRA provides detailed descriptions of videos related to Alex Leslie's case, confirming they are domestic socio-political content and lack military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ТАСС reports that air defense assets were activated again in the southeast of Tehran, with explosions heard. This indicates renewed military activity in Iran, which RUF channels may attempt to leverage or claim credit for, but no direct military relevance to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events, with low direct relevance to Ukraine). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) states Russia no longer needs Iran's help for the war in Ukraine, claiming Russia has accumulated 13,000 missiles, citing the Financial Times. This is a significant RUF information operation aimed at portraying self-sufficiency and strength, and potentially to downplay any previous or ongoing reliance on Iran, especially concerning missile supplies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a summary for June 25, implying comprehensive reporting on daily military activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). TASS reports Putin extended the permission for foreigners to pay for Russian gas not only through Gazprombank but also through other banks until October 1, indicating efforts to maintain energy trade flows despite sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal economic reporting). Colonelcassad reports on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns are amplifying the narrative that Trump claimed Iranian nuclear facilities were "erased," likely to validate RUF's previous fabricated Iran-Israel conflict narrative and align with Trump's rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Оперативний ЗСУ shared a satirical video about Queen Maxima of the Netherlands "joking" about Trump, indicating UAF monitoring of international diplomatic events and potential use of humor as counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). Fighterbomber shared a photo message with the caption "Отбой, кого касается!" which is a military term meaning "all clear" or "stand down," implying a cessation of threat in a specific area, but without more context, its specific relevance is unclear. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF operational update). ТАСС reports that the US administration plans to restrict classified information to Congress following a leak about the "unsuccessful" US military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, as claimed by Trump. This is RUF propaganda aimed at undermining US credibility and validating their own fabricated narrative on the Israel-Iran conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Воин DV shared a video showing individuals in military gear training with firearms, suggesting ongoing RUF combat training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF activity). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shared a video "Сбор для Десантников🪂" (Collection for Paratroopers) featuring individuals with Russian and Serbian flags, appealing for donations for drones, food, and communication equipment. This highlights continued RUF reliance on volunteer support for logistics and equipment, potentially indicating shortages or decentralized procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports that Czech companies are supplying machine tools to the Russian military-industrial complex through workarounds via Estonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Latvia, indicating continued challenges in enforcing sanctions against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a photo message featuring Donald Trump attacking US propaganda media, indicating RUF's efforts to amplify perceived internal divisions within the US and discredit Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ASTRA reports that residents of Kuban and Rostov Oblast are experiencing mobile internet outages. This indicates potential RUF security measures or UAF cyber/physical disruptions in southern Russia, potentially impacting civilian communications and control of information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). ТАСС reports that Russian aviation companies are adjusting flight schedules due to the suspension of airport operations in five cities of the Volga Federal District, citing Rosaviatsia. This is highly significant and indicates widespread disruptions to Russian civilian air travel, likely due to security concerns or military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo message on Trump's call to Republicans not to vote for Voice of America, reinforcing RUF's alignment with Trump's anti-Western media rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad shared a video on "Molniya" loitering munition striking a building with UAF personnel, demonstrating continued RUF precision strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). ASTRA reports Harry Kasparov was involved in preparing a coup in South Sudan, which is likely RUF disinformation aimed at discrediting opposition figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo message stating a Russian special flight arrived in New York from St. Petersburg, which could be RUF IO to imply high-level diplomatic activity or secret negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна reports Canada's Carney rejected the possibility of joining the EU, which is a geopolitical report with low direct military relevance to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - International Relations). ТАСС reports Viktor Orban believes proponents of common sense who oppose Ukraine joining NATO won at the Hague summit, but still face a long battle. This is RUF IO aimed at portraying divisions within NATO and downplaying Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reports a supporter of Ukrainian Nazis was detained in St. Petersburg who planned a terrorist attack, which is RUF internal security IO, aimed at justifying repression and portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language in a photo message about "Khokhly" in Turkey, demonstrating continued dehumanizing rhetoric in RUF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Zelenskiy / Official is addressing PACE, and Oleg Sinegubov is sharing it, which is UAF public diplomacy and IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). Colonelcassad shared a video captioned "Your sorcerers with frames didn't make it today," showing the wreckage of an alleged UAF fixed-wing drone, possibly indicating successful RUF air defense or EW against UAF long-range UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). MoD Russia shared multiple images captioned "Top News Today," likely a daily summary of RUF activities and propaganda points. While lacking specific tactical details, it indicates continued RUF efforts to control narrative and highlight perceived successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo message captioned "Katz is right. This is Russia acting like Israel. We learn from worthy examples. All will be well!", which is RUF propaganda seeking to justify its actions by drawing parallels with perceived Israeli military operations, particularly in the context of recent fabricated Israel-Iran conflict. This statement is highly concerning as it normalizes aggressive military actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad shared a video captioned "A charm against man-catchers," depicting an individual on a bus holding a hand grenade. This video is highly dangerous and is likely RUF propaganda intended to portray a heightened state of civilian preparedness or even potential for internal partisan action within Ukraine, or to demoralize UAF through implied internal threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the detention of suspects in Serbia for preparing an armed coup, which is an international event with no direct military relevance to Ukraine, but RUF may attempt to leverage it for broader geopolitical narratives about stability or Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events). Colonelcassad shared a photo of a man with tiger and lion cubs, which is not militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). Два майора shared a photo message for its third anniversary, which is not militarily relevant. (LOW CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports the IAEA has lost the ability to track Iranian enriched uranium after the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, citing Director General Grossi. This is a significant development related to nuclear non-proliferation and regional stability, which RUF channels will leverage to frame global events and potentially justify their own actions or alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international organizations). TASS reports that the prosecutor's office in Vologda is seeking to reclaim a monument to Stalin through court action and recover 10.5 million rubles, indicating an internal legal and historical dispute within Russia, with no direct military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). TASS reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at airports in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk, indicating a return to normalcy after previous UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Alex Parker Returns shared a photo message discussing a "geostation," claiming it can generate 100 kilowatts without external connections, "just from the Earth's rotation." This is likely pseudo-scientific propaganda aimed at projecting Russian technological innovation or a futuristic vision, with no basis in current scientific reality. Its inclusion in a military-focused channel suggests an intent to boost national pride or promote a false sense of technological superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports that Washington is ready to discuss a peaceful nuclear program with Iran but strongly opposes uranium enrichment in the Islamic Republic, citing Stephen Witkoff. This indicates continued diplomatic efforts regarding Iran's nuclear program, which RUF channels monitor and may attempt to leverage for their own geopolitical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international relations). РБК-Україна reports that Donald Trump stated Defense Secretary Hagset will hold an "important press conference." This is a US political development that RUF channels may monitor for its implications for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - US political reporting). ТАСС reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft arrival and departure have been imposed at Kaluga airport, according to Rosaviatsia. This indicates continued disruptions to Russian civilian air travel, likely due to security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ТАСС reports that Donald Trump believes "Voice of America" (recognized in RF as a foreign agent media) should cease to exist. This is RUF propaganda aimed at amplifying Trump's anti-Western media rhetoric and discrediting Western news sources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplified a statement by the Hungarian Prime Prime Minister, claiming "supporters of common sense" who oppose Ukraine's admission to NATO won at the Hague summit. This is RUF propaganda aimed at portraying divisions within NATO and undermining Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Prigozhin proposes the introduction of a military ombudsman post. This indicates internal RUF concerns about servicemen's rights and welfare, potentially stemming from morale issues or grievances within the ranks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). TASS reports Poland has voted to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines, which is a significant development related to landmine use in Europe. This may reflect changing geopolitical priorities or a response to perceived threats from Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - International Relations). Colonelcassad shared video of a Be-200 amphibious aircraft collecting water from a lake to extinguish fires in Transbaikalia. This reinforces the previous reports of a significant fire at an ammunition depot, highlighting the impact of natural disasters on RUF materiel and operational capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting, confirms previous BDA). ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft movements at Vnukovo Airport, Moscow, due to security measures (Plan 'Kover'). This indicates continued UAF drone activity into RF deep territory and RUF air defense response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Операция Z reports that the "enemy is trying to attack Moscow again," reinforcing the perception of ongoing UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна reports Trump will restrict classified information sharing with Congress after Iran strikes, which is relevant as RUF uses this to undermine US credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting, related to RUF IO). Новости Москвы reports 'Plan Kover' (airspace closure) declared at Vnukovo, corroborating the TASS report on air restrictions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" for mopeds (RUF UAVs), indicating successful UAF air defense activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). ТАСС reports The Times columnist Edward Lucas stating that the NATO summit was a "Potemkin village" designed to hide disunity. This is RUF IO aimed at discrediting NATO unity and support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Военкор Котенок reports that another UAV attempting to attack Moscow was shot down by air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). ТАСС reports that air defense repelled another UAV attack on Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF territory). РБК-Україна reports explosions again in Moscow, citing local media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF territory). ТАСС reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at Vnukovo airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ТАСС reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at Kaluga airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports that the CIA assesses Iran's nuclear program has been seriously damaged by recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Полиция Хабаровского края shared a graphic about criminal liability for "droppers" (money mules) for illegal financial transactions. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic law enforcement, indirect military relevance). Полиция Хабаровского края shared a video about a completed criminal investigation in Khabarovsk regarding the cultivation of hallucinogenic mushrooms, which is a domestic law enforcement issue in Russia, with no direct military relevance to Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic law enforcement, indirect military relevance). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosions near Moscow and in Moscow Oblast overnight, with accompanying video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RF territory). Два майора published their morning summary, which often includes updates on various fronts and RUF internal news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна cites ISW on Putin's territorial ambitions being larger than Ukraine, indicating UAF monitoring of Western analysis on RUF strategic goals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting on Western analysis). Два майора shared a video titled "РУССКАЯ ЗЕМЛЯ" (Russian Land), a compilation of Russian cultural, military, and historical imagery, likely for propaganda purposes to evoke national pride and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a summary for June 26, indicating continued daily military reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports on updated RUF losses for the day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) published their estimated RUF combat losses from 24.02.2022 to 26.06.2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Rybar reports on the Middle East crisis for June 25, indicating RUF monitoring and reporting on international events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

  • Weather in Eastern Ukraine remains generally temperate. However, recent reports of heavy rain and strong winds in Moscow (Новости Москвы) indicate potential for similar weather systems to impact northern and eastern fronts, which could affect air operations (especially drone activity) and ground mobility (muddy conditions). The fire in Chita, Siberia, suggests dry conditions in some parts of RF territory which could impact ground maneuver in similar terrain closer to the front. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire at a chemical plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which could release hazardous materials impacting local environment and potentially hindering operations if proximate to logistical routes. ASTRA confirms a fire and ammunition detonation at a weapons depot in Bolshaya Tura, Transbaikalia, likely due to natural causes, implying dry conditions and fire hazards. This could impact local air quality and hinder ground movement in the vicinity. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with claims of localized gains (Dyleyevka, Perebudova, Yalta). UAF is actively defending and conducting localized counter-attacks, demonstrating robust resistance. RUF is suppressing UAF counterattacks in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating a continued focus on holding and expanding gains.
  • Luhansk Oblast: RUF maintains pressure on the Lyman direction, claiming Petrovske (Hrekivka). UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is actively pushing back near Ridkodub. High intensity drone warfare in Serebryanskoye forestry.
  • Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts: RUF continues probing attacks (10 repelled assaults) and KAB strikes. Significant RUF force concentration (52,000 personnel) remains a critical threat on the Sumy axis. UAF is actively maintaining defensive lines and conducting counter-drone operations. UAF defense industry activity noted in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast and KAB launches, indicating continued RUF air activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports UAVs in southeastern Sumy Oblast moving towards Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RUF reconnaissance or strike preparation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a UAV over Kharkiv city, indicating continued RUF reconnaissance or strike preparation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports an enemy UAV detected over Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RBC-Ukraine corroborates a drone detection over Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 UAVs heading towards/through Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a UAV in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast, heading south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). UAF Air Force reports UAVs in the western and northeastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast, heading south, indicating continued RUF reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). UAF Air Force reports a UAV from Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the northeastern direction (likely Sumy/Kharkiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). UAF Air Force reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF maintains air superiority with persistent airstrikes and reconnaissance UAV activity. UAF is focused on defending against these strikes and bolstering logistics protection with anti-drone tunnels. RUF strikes on power infrastructure continue to disrupt civilian life. UAF Air Force reports missile danger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zaporizhzhia OMA reports missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports ongoing alerts indicating continued missile or UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia, confirming continued RUF air activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a new alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). UAF Air Force reports a UAV in the northeastern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving west/northwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued a new "ATTENTION" alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating ongoing aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report).
  • Kherson Oblast: UAF repelled 3 RUF assaults. RUF is active on the left bank, conducting signal operations and civilian evacuations. UAF reports RUF disconnecting mobile internet in occupied Kherson, indicating an attempt to control the information space and restrict UAF intelligence collection. RUF KAB launches confirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF aviation strike in Tavriyske resulted in one civilian KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Odesa Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports a general overview of RUF UAV activity ("mopeds") in the area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV from the Black Sea towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). This indicates continued RUF aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities in the Black Sea region. As of 252345Z JUN 25, all remaining RUF UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast have been neutralized ("весь остаток по мопедам в море" - Николаевский Ванёк, "Відбій загрози ударних БпЛА" - Повітряні Сили ЗС України). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Territory: Widespread UAF drone activity continues deep inside Russia, targeting oil depots and other facilities. RF AD is active in multiple regions. Internal security concerns are evident with reported arrests of foreign agents and saboteurs and ongoing counter-sabotage operations. A significant ammunition depot fire in Transbaikalia due to natural causes has been reported, which could represent a loss of materiel for RUF. RUF appears to be grappling with re-socialization challenges for 'SVO' veterans, as indicated by Alex Parker Returns' video, which could impact recruitment and morale. Colonelcassad's video showing "White Wolves" battalion recovering damaged UAF equipment suggests ongoing combat and RUF logistical/recovery operations. Colonelcassad reported on Rostec's development of a laser demining robot, indicating ongoing investment in military technology and potential new capabilities for RUF. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's posts suggest UAF cyber operations commencing. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). RUF AD reports high activity, with 18 UAVs shot down over multiple regions and 7 over Bryansk Oblast, indicating continued UAF deep strike efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Rosaviatsia banned flights to Israeli airports from 01:00 to 07:00 MSK until July 12, likely due to security concerns or a response to the fabricated Israel-Iran conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). WarGonzo's latest report on the 114th Brigade, titled "From us, you can't hide beyond the border of the DNR," indicates RUF's continued focus on advancing beyond the current administrative borders of the occupied Donetsk region and implies a sustained offensive posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports Tambov airport has lifted flight restrictions, indicating a return to normalcy after previous UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ASTRA reports mobile internet outages in Kuban and Rostov Oblast, potentially indicating RUF security measures or UAF targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports widespread flight schedule adjustments in the Volga Federal District due to airport suspensions, indicating significant disruptions within RF territory, likely due to security concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns reported a special flight from St. Petersburg to New York, potentially indicating high-level diplomatic activity, though the military relevance is low. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reported detention of a terrorist supporter in St. Petersburg, indicating ongoing internal security operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). STERNENKO reports a threat of RUF strike UAVs from the northeast and south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Colonelcassad video shows wreckage of a UAF fixed-wing drone, indicating active RUF air defense or EW. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the detention of suspects in Serbia for preparing an armed coup, which is an international event with no direct military relevance to Ukraine, but RUF may attempt to leverage it for broader geopolitical narratives about stability or Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events). TASS reports the IAEA has lost the ability to track Iranian enriched uranium after the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, citing Director General Grossi, which could impact geopolitical stability and RUF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international organizations). TASS reports lifting of flight restrictions in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk airports, indicating a decrease in immediate threats in these specific areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Kaluga airport, indicating ongoing security concerns or military activity impacting civilian aviation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Colonelcassad shared video of a Be-200 amphibious aircraft extinguishing fires in Transbaikalia, confirming significant RUF internal efforts against the effects of accidental materiel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). TASS reports Poland's vote to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention on anti-personnel mines, suggesting a potential shift in landmine usage policies, which could impact future battlefield dynamics if other nations follow, but no direct military relevance to Ukraine in this report. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - International Relations). ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft movements at Vnukovo Airport, Moscow, due to security measures (Plan 'Kover'). This indicates continued UAF drone activity into RF deep territory and RUF air defense response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Операция Z reports that the "enemy is trying to attack Moscow again," reinforcing the perception of ongoing UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна reports Trump will restrict classified information sharing with Congress after Iran strikes, which is relevant as RUF uses this to undermine US credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting, related to RUF IO). Новости Москвы reports 'Plan Kover' (airspace closure) declared at Vnukovo, corroborating the TASS report on air restrictions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" for mopeds (RUF UAVs), indicating successful UAF air defense activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). ТАСС reports The Times columnist Edward Lucas stating that the NATO summit was a "Potemkin village" designed to hide disunity. This is RUF IO aimed at discrediting NATO unity and support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Военкор Котенок reports that another UAV attempting to attack Moscow was shot down by air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). ТАСС reports that air defense repelled another UAV attack on Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF territory). РБК-Україна reports explosions again in Moscow, citing local media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF territory). ТАСС reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at Vnukovo airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ТАСС reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at Kaluga airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports that the CIA assesses Iran's nuclear program has been seriously damaged by recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Полиция Хабаровского края shared a graphic about criminal liability for "droppers" (money mules) for illegal financial transactions. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic law enforcement, indirect military relevance). Полиция Хабаровского края shared a video about a completed criminal investigation in Khabarovsk regarding the cultivation of hallucinogenic mushrooms, which is a domestic law enforcement issue in Russia, with no direct military relevance to Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic law enforcement, indirect military relevance). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports explosions near Moscow and in Moscow Oblast overnight, with accompanying video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RF territory). Два майора published their morning summary, which often includes updates on various fronts and RUF internal news. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна cites ISW on Putin's territorial ambitions being larger than Ukraine, indicating UAF monitoring of Western analysis on RUF strategic goals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting on Western analysis). Два майора shared a video titled "РУССКАЯ ЗЕМЛЯ" (Russian Land), a compilation of Russian cultural, military, and historical imagery, likely for propaganda purposes to evoke national pride and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a summary for June 26, indicating continued daily military reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports on updated RUF losses for the day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) published their estimated RUF combat losses from 24.02.2022 to 26.06.2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Rybar reports on the Middle East crisis for June 25, indicating RUF monitoring and reporting on international events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

  • Capabilities:
    • Ground Forces: RUF maintains substantial ground force capabilities, particularly the reported 52,000 personnel on the Sumy axis. They demonstrate sustained offensive capacity in Donetsk Oblast with attritional gains. WarGonzo video shows Russian artillery crews in action, indicating continued fire support capabilities. Военкор Котенок's video on the "liberation" of Yalta by the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade indicates the continued involvement of specific ground units in offensive operations. Басурин о главном shared video of alleged "underground work" near Kyiv, showing a burning UAF vehicle, which, if credible, suggests RUF capability to conduct sabotage/partisan operations in UAF-controlled territory. TASS reports RUF drone units of the "Rubikon" center struck UAF ground robotic complexes, indicating RUF adaptation to new technologies on the battlefield. Colonelcassad shared a video of Rubikon UAVs identifying and destroying various UAF reconnaissance and strike drones, demonstrating RUF's capabilities in counter-UAV operations. Старше Эдды discusses the "necessity of creating heavy BMPs" (infantry fighting vehicles) to provide "tank-level protection" for infantry, suggesting RUF is aware of and attempting to address deficiencies in its armored infantry capabilities for future operations. WarGonzo's video of "new recruits" of the 114th Brigade undergoing training reinforces RUF's ongoing force generation and combat readiness efforts. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's video of "obliteration of Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry" demonstrates RUF capability to engage UAF personnel with drone-assisted strikes during ground engagements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС released a video showing UAF drone strikes on various RUF targets, including a LAT (Light Armored Transport), motorcyclist, gun, and tank, implying that RUF is fielding these types of vehicles and personnel on the front, and that UAF is successfully targeting them. Colonelcassad shared photos of an allegedly destroyed UAF M2A2 Bradley IFV and a M113 APC, along with "other NATO equipment," suggesting RUF is able to neutralize Western-supplied armored vehicles and is keen to publicize these destructions for propaganda. MoD Russia shared video of Vostok Group Grad MLRS crews eliminating enemy manpower and hardware in South Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Fighterbomber shared video on Sadki shows RUF successfully hitting a UAF strongpoint, indicating continued RUF offensive capabilities and intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "🅾️tvazhnye" are destroying NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery near Pokrovsk, showcasing RUF's operational capacity and propaganda emphasis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video, unverified BDA). Оперативний ЗСУ shared thermal footage of RUF infantry advancing in a large assault column, indicating RUF's continued reliance on infantry assaults and drone support for targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF BDA). MoD Russia shared video of Tornado-S MLRS crews inflicting fire damage on UAF formations in Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RUF MLRS capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claimed successful strike on a UAF command post and UAV control point in Sosnovka, Kharkiv region. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). MoD Russia shared video of T-72B3M tanks breaking through UAF fortified areas in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming combined arms offensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared video of thermal drone footage showing successful RUF artillery strikes on UAF personnel, demonstrating continued RUF fire support and targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a series of strikes by Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) on a fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Popov Yar area of the DNR. The video shows multiple explosions and smoke plumes in agricultural fields, consistent with large-scale aerial bombardment, confirming RUF’s continued use of air power to target UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). Colonelcassad shared video showing the destruction of a camouflaged UAF 152-mm Msta-B howitzer by an RUF attack drone, demonstrating effective RUF counter-battery capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Colonelcassad shared video of "ЦЕНТР" grouping drone operators engaging transport of the 14th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU), indicating RUF's continued combat operations and targeting capabilities against UAF mobility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Воин DV shared a video depicting drone operators from the "Vostok" Group of Forces, originating from Buryatia, conducting combat work in the South Donetsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). TASS reports RUF forces are suppressing UAF counterattacks in the Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). This suggests that RUF is able to maintain the initiative on this axis despite UAF efforts. Colonelcassad's video shows 29th Army continuing to annihilate UAF manpower and equipment near Yalta, specifically an armored vehicle. This supports ongoing RUF offensive capabilities in the Donetsk sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) claims "Black Sea Marines powerfully crush the enemy, breaking through defenses in Sumy Oblast." This is an unverified RUF claim of a breakthrough, but suggests RUF intent to portray significant ground gains and employ naval infantry in offensive roles on this axis. (LOW CONFIDENCE - unverified RUF claim of breakthrough; HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF intent to portray significant gains). TASS reports RUF did not allow Kyiv to reinforce its grouping near Olgovka, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating RUF's capability to detect and disrupt UAF troop movements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified).
    • Air/Missile Forces: Proven capability for massed ballistic missile (Iskander-M), Shahed UAV, and KAB strikes targeting critical infrastructure and civilian population centers, designed to inflict mass casualties and psychological terror. Continued receipt of new Su-35S aircraft (MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Fighterbomber, Kotsnews) enhances their tactical aviation capabilities. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction. Воин DV video shows 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army conducting airstrikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, near Poltavka, indicating coordinated air-ground operations. Colonelcassad shared a video of a destroyed RUF 9K35 Strela-10 SAM system, implying continued UAF counter-battery and targeting efforts against RUF air defense assets. РБК-Україна reports RUF is using "white radio-controlled Shaheds," which, if confirmed, indicates an adaptation in drone design (possibly for radar evasion or enhanced optics) that could complicate UAF air defense targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA). Рыбарь shares video and text reporting on new "Geraniums-Hunters" (new Geran drones) with optical guidance systems, claiming they hit the UAV assembly plant in Kramatorsk, indicating continued RUF development and deployment of advanced UAVs for precision strikes. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition explicitly states Russian "Iskanders" create "big problems" for Ukraine, likely confirming their effectiveness as a precision strike asset. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified BDA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad shared a photo of a "new Russian UAV" which is a V2U loitering munition, confirming RUF's continued development of advanced drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda). Воин DV shared video claiming annihilation of a group of enemy heavy copters by UAV operators of "Vostok" Group of Forces in the Shevchenko area, implying RUF counter-UAV capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the production of "Iskander" missiles in Russia has increased thanks to Chinese assistance, citing Kyiv Independent. This indicates a growing RUF capability for precision missile strikes, potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of such attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shared video of a successful RUF airstrike on a UAF battalion command post in occupied southern Ukraine, showing a fighter jet and significant destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Colonelcassad shared a video claiming an Iskander strike on a training ground in Shostka and discussing "real losses," which is RUF propaganda intended to boast about strike effectiveness and demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified, IO). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report). Colonelcassad shared a video of a "Molniya" loitering munition striking a building with UAF personnel, demonstrating continued RUF precision strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Colonelcassad shared a video showing wreckage of an alleged UAF fixed-wing drone, suggesting successful RUF AD or EW efforts against UAF long-range UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified). Alex Parker Returns shared a video of a "Geranium" drone with optical guidance, allegedly striking a target in Kramatorsk, indicating RUF's continued development and deployment of advanced UAVs for precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, likely IO). Colonelcassad shared thermal/low-light aerial footage of a drone targeting ground structures or vehicles, identified as "Southern Front," and captioned "Continuing to destroy enemy 'Vampires'." This likely refers to UAF Vampire strike drones or similar UAF assets, indicating continued RUF counter-UAV operations and capabilities on the Southern Front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified).
    • Hybrid/Information Warfare: Highly sophisticated and adaptive IO apparatus capable of fabricating global narratives (Israel-Iran) and formalizing pretexts for escalation (Krokus City Hall). Demonstrated capability to conduct internal security operations against alleged foreign agents and saboteurs (Moldovan intelligence agents in Moscow). Rybar's video on "Combatting Ukrainian Terrorism" and accompanying text about an FSB vehicle and explosive materials reinforces RUF's narrative of internal security threats requiring counter-terrorism operations. Alex Parker Returns and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) are closely monitoring and attempting to leverage the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting outcome, showing RUF's intent to exploit perceived political divisions. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's photo messages about "blocked access to favorite sites" and Alex Parker Returns' video on veteran re-socialization challenges indicate internal socio-political messaging by RUF. RUF sources like Alex Parker Returns continue to use derogatory terms for Ukrainians ("хохлы") as part of dehumanization propaganda. Басурин о главном shared a photo implying IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) are similar, likely to discredit international monitoring bodies or undermine their reports on occupied Ukrainian territories. Colonelcassad shared a photo with a "comedic" overlay of Zelenskyy and Trump (one figure with a clown nose), attempting to ridicule the Ukrainian leadership and the US-Ukraine relationship for domestic consumption. AV БогомаZ (Governor of Bryansk Oblast) shared photos and video promoting "Bryansk Oblast: Territory of Development," projecting an image of stability and progress in a region subject to UAF deep strikes, aimed at countering negative narratives and maintaining public morale. НгП раZVедка critiques Rogozin for treating "SVO" as a punishment rather than honor, indicating internal dissatisfaction within RUF about military leadership and recruitment practices. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) cites Bild to claim the NATO summit was "unsuccessful for Zelenskyy," portraying him as a "mere bystander," aiming to undermine his international standing. TASS reports Trump proposed to return the old title "Minister of War" to the Head of the Pentagon, a statement that RUF may use to portray US leadership as aggressive or militaristic. Colonelcassad shared a video of a German journalist complaining about censorship in Israel regarding military strikes, which RUF could leverage to criticize Western media freedom or justify their own information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda). MoD Russia's video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing command's attitude is a clear psychological operation to undermine UAF morale and cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS report on FAS inquiry into fishing companies' prices indicates RUF attempts to project control over domestic economy and consumer prices. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal economic reporting). Alex Parker Returns' videos from Paris appear to be civilian observations, but their inclusion in a military-focused channel might serve to project normalcy or international reach for RUF IO, though low direct military relevance. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Indirect RUF IO). Глеб Никитин's posts on opera divas project normalcy and cultural development in Russia, countering negative war narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal IO). Kotsnews' political cartoon is a direct form of RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns' video of Russian servicemen seeking support is a direct morale-boosting and fundraising effort for the 'SVO'. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Рыбарь's comic is another example of RUF propaganda and information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's patch photos serve to promote unit identity and morale, aligning with broader RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS's report on Maria Zakharova's comments about US authorities' shaping investment climate is part of RUF's ongoing effort to discredit Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Kadyrov_95's video on practical shooting championship success promotes military and warrior culture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Kotsnews reports on a poll indicating 56% of subscribers believe Russia has nuclear weapons and is not like Iran, which is a clear RUF attempt to project strength and deterrence for domestic and international audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports the West's hostile course and Ukraine being used as "expendable material," a direct RUF propaganda narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports on a criminal case against blogger Alex Leslie, a domestic crime report that indirectly reinforces the idea of rule of law in RF, but no direct military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Новости Москвы posted on ChatGPT for watermelon selection, indicating mundane civilian life continues in RF, which is part of RUF's "normalcy" IO. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Indirect RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a VK group "Moscow Muslims" placing crescents instead of crosses on St. Basil's Cathedral, which is RUF propaganda used to portray internal religious/ethnic tensions and extremism within Russia, likely to justify internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement about an agreement with Ukraine regarding "large quantities of land," which RUF may attempt to manipulate for their own narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports The Financial Times stated "Russia does not need Iran to fight against Ukraine," indicating RUF monitoring of Western media and potentially a counter-narrative to claims of a wider anti-Western alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Рыбарь shared a video discussing "inexplicable charity," which is RUF propaganda, possibly to portray Western aid as ineffective or ill-intentioned. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Rosaviatsia resolved to allow flights to Qatar for Russian carriers, indicating Russia's efforts to maintain international connections despite sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ASTRA reports Trump stated Iran's nuclear facilities were destroyed, a claim RUF may propagate to validate their fabricated Israel-Iran crisis or exploit for its own geopolitical interests. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Новости Москвы reports a criminal case against blogger Alexander Kirillov (Alex Leslie) for public calls to harassment, which, while domestic, RUF may use to portray order or control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports on a statement from Zelenskyy's office addressing the "fatigue from Ukraine in the West" after the NATO summit, emphasizing Ukraine's clear response. This directly attempts to counter RUF attempts to sow doubt among Western partners regarding the sustainability of support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) states Russia no longer needs Iran's help for the war in Ukraine, claiming Russia has accumulated 13,000 missiles, citing the Financial Times. This is a significant RUF information operation aimed at portraying self-sufficiency and strength, and potentially to downplay any previous or ongoing reliance on Iran, especially concerning missile supplies. It directly attempts to counter narratives of RUF weakness or reliance on external support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reports that the US is synchronously releasing an anti-crisis narrative regarding the success of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with Trump, his administration, intelligence, Pentagon, and linked media all presenting a unified version of total destruction. This highlights a concerted RUF effort to monitor and spin US foreign policy narratives for their own IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns amplifies the narrative that "the bulldozer of American politics [Trump] stated that Iran's nuclear facilities are wiped to dust," claiming the information is "verified from bloody Netanyahu," and that it "looks like truth." This is direct RUF IO aimed at supporting a fabricated crisis and portraying Trump as a strong, decisive leader, while also using inflammatory language. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports the US administration plans to restrict classified information to Congress following a leak about the "unsuccessful" US military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, as claimed by Trump. This is RUF propaganda aimed at undermining US credibility and validating their own fabricated narrative on the Israel-Iran conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns uses a photo message featuring St. Basil's Cathedral and text regarding "Muslims" and "expansions," which is RUF propaganda aimed at inciting ethnic and religious divisions within Russia and justifying internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Colonelcassad reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reinforces the RUF propaganda narrative about St. Basil's Cathedral and "Muslim expansion" with repeated photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo message indicating a focus on S.terenko/Prytula/Lomachenko, which is UAF information warfare, likely to highlight personalities or movements supporting Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). РБК-Україна reports that Czech companies are supplying machine tools to the Russian military-industrial complex via workaround routes, which is UAF intelligence reporting on RUF supply chain and sanctions evasion, intended to highlight weaknesses or illicit activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shared a photo message with text that is RUF propaganda, likely designed to inflame anti-US sentiment or support Trump's anti-media rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shared a photo message with a caption indicating something "very strange," which is UAF information warfare, likely to draw attention to perceived anomalies or contradictions in RUF's narratives or actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). РБК-Україна shared a video of President Zelenskyy arriving in Strasbourg for the PACE meeting, which is UAF public diplomacy and IO to demonstrate continued international engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). ASTRA reports that mobile internet is disconnected in Kuban and Rostov regions, which is UAF intelligence reporting on RUF internal control measures, potentially indicating fear of information leakage or a response to UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). MoD Russia shared a photo message with the hashtag "#TodaysEvent," which is RUF information operations to highlight official military activities and project normalcy or success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Басурин о главном reports on proposals to deport families of migrants whose children do not attend school, which is RUF domestic policy and IO aimed at projecting social control and addressing perceived internal threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal IO). РБК-Україна shared a photo message confirming Zelenskyy signed an agreement on creating a Special Tribunal against Russia at PACE, which is a significant UAF diplomatic and legal IO success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO). Colonelcassad shares a text message reinforcing Trump's call to "destroy" Voice of America, indicating RUF's continued alignment with Trump's anti-Western media rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports that aviation companies are forced to adjust flight schedules due to airport suspensions in five cities of the Volga Federal District. This confirms significant domestic disruption within Russia, likely due to security concerns or military activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). Colonelcassad shared a video of a person holding a hand grenade on a bus, which is RUF IO aimed at portraying internal threats or encouraging civilian action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the detention of suspects in Serbia for preparing an armed coup, which is an international event with no direct military relevance to Ukraine, but RUF may attempt to leverage it for broader geopolitical narratives about stability and Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international events). ТАСС reports the IAEA has lost the ability to track Iranian enriched uranium after the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, citing Director General Grossi. This is a significant development related to nuclear non-proliferation and regional stability, which RUF channels will leverage to frame global events and potentially justify their own actions or alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF reporting on international organizations). TASS reports the Vologda prosecutor's office wants to return a Stalin monument and recover funds through court, an internal legal and historical issue that RUF channels will leverage for domestic propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Alex Parker Returns' "geostation" photo message is a pseudo-scientific claim promoting Russian technological prowess. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). ТАСС reports Washington's stance on Iran's nuclear program, which RUF channels will use to frame US foreign policy and its own geopolitical narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement about Defense Secretary Hagset holding a press conference, which RUF channels will monitor for its implications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - US political reporting). ТАСС reports Trump's belief that "Voice of America" should cease to exist, which RUF uses to attack Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports Hungary's PM Viktor Orban claims "supporters of common sense" who oppose Ukraine's NATO admission won at the Hague summit, which is RUF propaganda aimed at portraying divisions within NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). TASS reports Prigozhin proposes the introduction of a military ombudsman post. This indicates internal RUF concerns about servicemen's rights and welfare, likely stemming from morale issues or grievances within the ranks. This could also be a strategic move to manage public perception of the military's treatment of its personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). TASS reports Poland has voted to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines, which is a significant development related to landmine use in Europe. This may reflect changing geopolitical priorities or a response to perceived threats from Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - International Relations). TASS reports Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin states that Ukraine's non-aligned status must be an integral part of any overall settlement. This is a key RUF diplomatic demand, indicating their continued insistence on preventing Ukraine's NATO integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF diplomatic statement). ТАСС reports The Times columnist Edward Lucas stating that the NATO summit was a "Potemkin village" designed to hide disunity. This is RUF IO aimed at discrediting NATO unity and support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Военкор Котенок reports on the arrest of an Armenian opposition leader, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, in Yerevan. This is a regional security development with potential, but low, indirect relevance to Russia's broader geopolitical strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Regional political reporting). Филолог в засаде (Philologist in Ambush) discusses a draft law on regulating volunteer activities, which may indicate internal Russian legislative efforts related to civil society or wartime mobilization, but lacks direct military relevance to Ukraine in this report. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic policy commentary). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shared a photo message accusing Kyiv of patching budget holes at the expense of businesses and new debts, which is RUF propaganda aimed at portraying Ukrainian economic weakness and internal instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Военкор Котенок reports that another UAV attempting to attack Moscow was shot down by air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). ТАСС reports that air defense repelled another UAV attack on Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF AD activity). РБК-Україна reports explosions in Moscow, citing local media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF territory). РБК-Україна reports explosions again in Moscow, citing local media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reporting on RUF territory). ТАСС reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at Vnukovo airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). ТАСС reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at Kaluga airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF internal reporting). РБК-Україна reports that the CIA assesses Iran's nuclear program has been seriously damaged by recent strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF intelligence reporting). Colonelcassad shared a video featuring a Russian serviceman recently released from Ukrainian captivity, detailing alleged mistreatment and torture. This is a clear RUF propaganda effort aimed at discrediting UAF, portraying them as neo-Nazis, and garnering international sympathy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO). Полиция Хабаровского края shared a graphic indicating criminal liability for "droppers" (money mules) for illegal financial transactions, reinforcing RUF's focus on domestic financial security and control. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic law enforcement, indirect military relevance). Полиция Хабаровского края shared a video about a completed criminal investigation in Khabarovsk regarding the cultivation of hallucinogenic mushrooms, which is a domestic law enforcement issue in Russia, with no direct military relevance to Ukraine. (LOW CONFIDENCE - Domestic law enforcement, indirect military relevance).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • RUF:
    • Increased use of "Geranium-Hunters" (Shahed/Geran-2 with thermal imaging) for night operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deployment of "Erzatz-BTRs" (heavy APCs converted from tank chassis) indicating an adaptation to provide more protected infantry transport against UAF anti-armor capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Persistent targeting of UAF drone production capabilities, exemplified by the Kramatorsk airfield strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Intensified hybrid warfare tactics: Exploiting geopolitical events (NATO summit, fabricated Israel-Iran conflict) and focusing on internal security narratives within RF, coupled with continued dehumanizing rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deployment of new Su-35S aircraft: Indicates continued modernization of air force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Increased focus on preventing UAF reinforcement/movement (e.g., Olgovka, Kharkiv Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF BDA, unverified).
  • UAF:
    • Adaptive air defense tactics: Confirmed F-16 and Mi-24 engagements against UAVs, indicating multi-layered and opportunistic AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Continued deep strike capabilities: Successful strike on "Atlant AERO" plant and rail interdiction near Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Focus on drone integration and counter-drone operations: Demonstrated by UAF drone destruction of RUF forces, and the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade shooting down an FPV drone with a shotgun. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RUF:
    • Air-launched munitions and ballistic missile production appear sustainable, with reports of increased Iskander production (citing Chinese assistance). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground logistics are under pressure, as demonstrated by the successful UAF train interdiction near Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal logistics within RF are experiencing disruptions (e.g., ammunition depot fire in Transbaikalia, flight restrictions due to UAV threats, mobile internet outages in southern RF). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dependence on volunteer support: Continued appeals for donations for "Paratroopers" for drones, food, and communication equipment suggest ongoing logistical gaps or a decentralized procurement system outside formal military channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Sanctions Evasion: Czech companies reportedly supplying machine tools to the RUF military-industrial complex via workaround routes, indicating continued challenges in enforcing sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Continued Western aid (Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs, New Zealand, UK aid packages) is crucial for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Domestic defense industry is active but remains a target (Kramatorsk UAV workshop strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Logistics routes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are being fortified with anti-drone tunnels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

  • RUF:
    • Maintains centralized command for large-scale offensive operations and strategic strikes.
    • Internal messaging suggests some dissatisfaction regarding military leadership and recruitment practices (e.g., critique of Rogozin) and re-socialization challenges for veterans. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Increased internal security measures and communication control (Starlink ban, mobile internet outages) indicate concerns about information leakage and maintaining control in occupied territories and border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Demonstrates effective operational control, coordinating deep strikes and defensive actions across multiple fronts.
    • High-level diplomatic engagement continues, indicating stable political and military leadership.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, particularly in Sumy/Kharkiv, successfully repelling multiple RUF assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Offensive Capabilities: Demonstrated effective deep strike and interdiction capabilities against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense: Adaptive and multi-layered, showing successful interceptions with diverse assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Force Generation: Ongoing training with modern combat equipment (58th Motorized Infantry Brigade) and continued international support for drone production (Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs). UAF General Staff provides regular updates on RUF losses, indicating active engagement and assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • Successful deep strike on "Atlant AERO" military aviation plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful interdiction and disabling of a 40+ wagon RUF cargo train near Tokmak. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Repelled 10 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction and 3 on the Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful UAF SOF destruction of a RUF assault group on Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • High rate of RUF UAV interceptions (52 of 71-97), with all remaining UAVs in Odesa direction neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Confirmed F-16 and Mi-24 UAV kills demonstrate adaptive AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF drone units continue to inflict BDA on RUF personnel and equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful interception of ballistic missile targeting Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • Ballistic missile strike on Dnipro resulted in 21 KIA and over 300 wounded, with significant civilian infrastructure damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RUF capture of Yalta (Donetsk Oblast) and consolidation in Dyleyevka poses a direct threat to Konstantinovka logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful RUF strike on UAF UAV assembly workshop in Kramatorsk airfield. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RUF aviation strike on Tavriyske, Kherson Oblast, killed one civilian. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Air Defense Munitions: Continued high rate of RUF air/missile attacks necessitates sustained supply of AD munitions.
  • Counter-Battery Systems: Ongoing RUF artillery activity requires continued focus on counter-battery fire.
  • Advanced EW Capabilities: To counter RUF's adaptive drone technologies (e.g., "white radio-controlled Shaheds," "Geranium-Hunters").
  • Protected Mobility: The appearance of "Erzatz-BTRs" indicates RUF's recognition of the need for improved protection; UAF should ensure it has sufficient anti-armor capabilities and protected transport.
  • Humanitarian Aid: Significant needs in areas impacted by RUF strikes (e.g., Konstantinovka, Dnipro).
  • Military-Industrial Complex Protection: Continued RUF targeting of defense industry assets (Kramatorsk) necessitates enhanced hardening and dispersion measures.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • RUF:
    • Fabricated Israel-Iran Conflict: Continued use of this narrative to deflect attention and justify broader geopolitical stances, attempting to discredit US foreign policy (e.g., Trump's claims of Iranian nuclear facilities erased). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NATO Summit Exploitation: Attempts to portray NATO disunity and Zelenskyy's isolation (e.g., citing Bild, Orban). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dehumanization: Continued use of derogatory terms for Ukrainians ("Khokhly"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Security Narrative: Emphasis on counter-sabotage operations and detention of foreign agents/terrorists (Moldovan agents, St. Petersburg "Nazi" supporter) to justify internal control and repressive measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Portrayal of Strength and Self-Sufficiency: Claims of increased missile production ("13,000 missiles," "no need for Iran"), new aircraft deliveries (Su-35S), and technological advancements (laser demining robot, "geostation") to boost domestic morale and project military prowess. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Veteran Re-socialization Challenges: RUF acknowledges difficulties for returning veterans, but attempts to frame it as societal rather than systemic issues, potentially impacting recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • "Muslim Expansion" Narrative: Repeated propaganda aimed at inciting ethnic/religious division within RF (St. Basil's Cathedral narrative) to justify internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Discrediting UAF: Claims of UAF "lying" about territorial control, torture of POWs, internal instability (sabotage wave, "man-catchers" propaganda), and economic weakness ("patching budget holes"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Discrediting Western Media/Influence: Amplifying Trump's rhetoric against "Voice of America," and general criticism of US authorities and media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Diplomatic Engagement: Active messaging around President Zelenskyy's meetings with international leaders (Trump, E5, NATO SG) to reinforce strong political support and global standing (e.g., PACE address, Special Tribunal agreement signing). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Accountability Narrative: Strong emphasis on the creation of a Special Tribunal against Russia for the crime of aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Highlighting RUF War Crimes: Publicizing civilian casualties and damage from RUF strikes (Dnipro) to garner international sympathy and condemnation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Showcasing Military Successes: Videos and reports on successful UAF strikes (Taganrog, Tokmak), drone operations, and AD (F-16 UAV kill, shotgun drone kill), and publishing updated RUF losses to reinforce Ukrainian resilience and military effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Countering "Fatigue" Narrative: Zelenskyy's office directly addressing Western "fatigue" after NATO summit, demonstrating awareness of RUF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Cyber Operations: Indications of active UAF cyber operations. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • RUF:
    • Domestic Impact of Deep Strikes: Civilian airport disruptions, mobile internet outages, and ammunition depot fires in border/deep regions due to UAF drone activity could impact public morale and sense of security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Social Issues: Reports of crime (assaults, murders) and internal repression (arrests of activists, censorship concerns regarding "blocked access to favorite sites") indicate underlying social tensions and an authoritarian approach to control dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Veteran Issues: Re-socialization challenges for veterans could lead to public discontent if unaddressed, potentially impacting future recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Morale of forces: Continued appeals for donations for basic supplies for frontline units may suggest resource shortages or lower morale among some RUF forces, or at least a reliance on popular support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Civilian Casualties: High death toll from Dnipro strike will negatively impact civilian morale, but also likely harden resolve against RUF aggression and reinforce the need for stronger AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Resilience: Continued civilian efforts for housing restoration, community services, and adaptation to war conditions (bomb shelters for ID services) demonstrate resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Commemoration: Day of Mourning in Dnipro for victims highlights the human cost and collective grief. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Support for Veterans: Swimming programs for veterans demonstrate UAF efforts for rehabilitation, aiming to boost morale and reintegration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • Continued Strong Support for Ukraine:
    • High-level diplomatic engagement: Zelenskyy's meetings with Trump, E5 leaders, and NATO SG reinforce strong political support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Legal Action: Signing of the agreement for a Special Tribunal against Russia is a significant diplomatic and legal step. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Military Aid: Germany funding Lyutiy UAVs, New Zealand and UK announcing new aid packages (e.g., 350 AD missiles purchased from frozen Russian assets). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Challenges to Sanctions Enforcement: Czech companies reportedly supplying machine tools to RUF via workarounds. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RUF Diplomatic Stance: Russia's Deputy FM states Ukraine's non-aligned status is integral to any settlement, indicating no change in core demands. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Divisions within Western Alliances (RUF Narrative): RUF attempts to amplify statements by figures like Viktor Orban (Hungary) and a Times columnist to portray disunity within NATO and Western support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF IO)
  • International Monitoring Issues: IAEA losing track of Iranian enriched uranium after fabricated Israel-Iran conflict, a development RUF will leverage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  • Northern Axis Offensive: RUF will initiate a large-scale, multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy axis within the next 24-48 hours, likely supported by a high volume of KAB and tactical aviation strikes. The primary objective will be to fix and draw UAF reserves away from the Donbas and potentially seize key border towns to expand the "buffer zone" and threaten Sumy city. This will be accompanied by efforts to disrupt UAF reinforcement (as reported near Olgovka). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Consolidation & Advance: RUF will intensify ground assaults and combined arms operations on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, leveraging recent gains in Yalta and Dyleyevka. Their immediate objective is to gain full fire control over UAF logistics routes into Konstantinovka and possibly initiate direct assaults on the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Continued Strategic Attrition: RUF will maintain a high tempo of precision and massed ballistic missile, cruise missile, and Shahed UAV strikes against critical infrastructure (especially energy and railway) and urban centers, aiming to inflict mass civilian casualties and degrade UAF's warfighting capacity and societal morale. This will include continued targeting of UAF defense industry assets (like the Kramatorsk workshop). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Escalated Cyber and Information Warfare: RUF will intensify cyberattacks concurrent with military operations, targeting UAF C2 and public information, while continuing to propagate narratives of Ukrainian internal instability and Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  • Synchronized Multi-Front Breakthrough & Strategic Paralysis: RUF launches a fully synchronized, large-scale offensive across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Toretsk) axes simultaneously, aiming for a rapid operational breakthrough and deep penetration. This would be preceded by an intense, multi-layered saturation missile and drone attack on Kyiv, key C2 nodes, strategic airfields, and UAF reserve staging areas, designed to paralyze UAF response. This operation would be supported by widespread sabotage operations behind UAF lines. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully)
  • Hybrid Escalation & Internal RF Destabilization: Concurrent with offensive military actions, RUF initiates a widespread, coordinated hybrid campaign across Ukraine, combined with efforts to escalate internal tensions within RF (e.g., through intensified "Muslim expansion" narratives, justifying increased internal repression), potentially creating a pretext for broader mobilization or a more aggressive shift in domestic policy. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Next 24-48 hours: High probability of major RUF ground offensive on Sumy axis. UAF decision point on reserve deployment.
  • Next 72 hours: Continued RUF pressure on Donetsk axes. UAF decision point on defending Konstantinovka and Toretsk supply lines.
  • Immediate: Continued high frequency of RUF air/missile strikes nationwide. UAF decision point on AD asset allocation.
  • Ongoing: RUF hybrid warfare will continue, requiring persistent UAF counter-IO.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Intelligence & Special Operations:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes (GROUND PRIORITY #1). Focus on identifying RUF unit movements, logistical build-ups, and force concentrations (e.g., the reported 52,000 personnel) to provide real-time warning for any large-scale ground offensive. Special attention on identifying RUF efforts to disrupt UAF reinforcement.
    2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Task SOF and drone reconnaissance units to conduct aggressive interdiction and target acquisition operations around Yalta and Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast) to disrupt RUF consolidation efforts and prevent full fire control over Konstantinovka logistics. Prioritize targets that would enable RUF fire control.
    3. URGENT: Enhance intelligence collection on RUF's new "white radio-controlled Shaheds" and "Geranium-Hunters." Develop and deploy countermeasures (EW, improved AD systems, new tactics) against these adapted UAVs.
    4. HIGH: Continue deep strikes against RUF military-industrial and logistics targets within RF territory, particularly targeting railway infrastructure following the success near Tokmak and confirmed ammunition depots (e.g., Transbaikalia). Exploit reported internal disruptions (internet outages, airport suspensions) for further targeting.
    5. HIGH: Increase counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize RUF agents and saboteurs within Ukraine, particularly in major urban centers and critical infrastructure nodes, following RUF's propaganda regarding "diversions."

  • Air Defense & Force Protection:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reposition and reinforce ABM and conventional AD assets to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv regions. Anticipate coordinated air and missile strikes designed to support RUF ground offensives and maximize civilian casualties. Prioritize protection of critical civilian infrastructure and railway networks.
    2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement enhanced passive and active force protection measures at all UAF training, assembly, and defense industry sites nationwide. This includes improved camouflage, dispersion, and hardening against precision strikes (e.g., those seen in Kramatorsk).
    3. HIGH: Accelerate training and operational integration of newly acquired Western air defense systems and aircraft (e.g., F-16s) to increase interception rates against the full spectrum of RUF air threats, especially the adapted UAVs.

  • Ground Forces:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate all ground forces on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to maximum alert. Position strategic reserves for rapid counter-attack and reinforcement. Ensure robust anti-armor capabilities are forward deployed to counter potential heavy APC (Erzatz-BTR) advances.
    2. URGENT: Reinforce defensive lines around Konstantinovka and Toretsk immediately. Establish robust secondary and tertiary defensive positions to absorb and counter any RUF breakthrough from the Yalta/Dyleyevka direction.
    3. HIGH: Increase counter-battery fire missions, particularly against RUF MLRS systems (e.g., Grad, Tornado-S) and observed artillery concentrations, to degrade RUF fire support.

  • Information Operations & Diplomatic:

    1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an intensive, evidence-based international IO campaign detailing RUF war crimes in Dnipro, specifically highlighting the targeting of civilian areas, a passenger train, and the rising casualty count. Push for immediate and robust international condemnation and accountability through the ICC and Special Tribunal.
    2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Proactively publicize UAF's operational successes (Taganrog plant strike, Tokmak train interdiction, F-16 UAV kill, successful ballistic missile interception, updated RUF losses) to reinforce Ukrainian resilience and military effectiveness, directly countering RUF propaganda.
    3. URGENT: Counter RUF narratives by emphasizing the unity of international support and the tangible outcomes of recent diplomatic engagements (e.g., Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, new aid packages, Special Tribunal agreement), directly addressing RUF attempts to portray divisions and fatigue.
    4. HIGH: Expose RUF's attempts at cultural genocide (e.g., Starlink ban, Ukrainian language suppression in schools) and internal security issues (e.g., Moldovan agents, veteran re-socialization challenges, internal crime) to undermine their legitimacy and expose internal vulnerabilities.
    5. HIGH: Reinforce the narrative of Ukraine's commitment to international law and human rights, especially concerning POW treatment, to counter RUF disinformation campaigns.

END OF REPORT

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